Coaching Crossroads?
Connor McDavid is the most popular Oilers player and personality, but after that Todd McLellan would rank high among the collective personalities who are members of the team. His matter of fact style, casual delivery and natural ability to communicate allow him to interact with Oilers nation with ease. But you have to win. Will this be his final season with the team?
THE ATHLETIC!
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- New Lowetide: Some lingering questions about the 2018 draft, and goalie evaluations.
- New Lowetide: Oilers training camp: 28 men for 23 jobs.
- New Jonathan Willis: Predicting the winners in the top 6 and top 9 forwards.
- Lowetide: A bridge league would benefit the Oilers (and others).
- Lowetide: The news is out: Youth shall be served.
- Lowetide: The merciful end of the Leftorium.
- Lowetide: Cap decisions of 2017 may continue to hamper 2019 decisions
- Lowetide: Creating the ideal No. 2 line for the 2018-19 Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Which RFA’s are the most attractive for offer sheets.
- Scott Burnside: Q&A with new Humboldt Broncos coach Nathan Oystrick.
- James Mirtle: Canada job postings.
- Lowetide: UFA’s still available who can help the 2018-19 Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Analyzing the Oilers 2018-19 depth chart (including additions)
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors could be best Oilers AHL team in ages
- Lowetide: Handicapping the race to win jobs on McDavid/Draisaitl wings
- Lowetide: Oilers grab Tobias Rieder in free agency
- Lowetide: Frugal Oilers grab Kyle Brodziak in free agency
- Jonathan Willis: How will Oilers manage rich collection of goalie prospects?
- Lowetide: Is Evan Bouchard NHL-ready?
- Lowetide: The maturation of Daryl Katz, or heading down a dangerous road?
TODD MCLELLAN
- 2015-16: 31-43-8, 70 pts (199-242) (GD: -43)
- 2016-17: 47-26-9, 103 pts (243-207) (GD: +36)
- 2017-18: 36-40-6, 78 pts (229-262) (GD: -33)
- What was the best thing about the Oilers season? Connor McDavid. Copy and paste that answer for the next decade or more.
- What was the most devastating thing? O man. So many. Power-play goals fell from 56 to 31, penalty killing goals against rose from 43 to 57. Special teams play (including shorthanded goals for and against) went from +12 to -20. That’s a 32 goal trip into the elevator shaft.
- What about 5-on-5? In 2016-17, the Oilers scored 166 goals (No. 8 overall), gave up 140 (No. 9 overall). In 2017-18, the 5-on-5 offense mostly held. Edmonton had 163 goals for (No. 11 overall) but allowed a massive 176 goals against (No. 25), for a -13 overall. All numbers via Natural Stat Trick and Hockey-Reference.
- Goaltending? Yes for sure, Talbot didn’t look right and part of that might have been a couple of early pulls. Edmonton allowed 737 high-danger scoring chances in 2016-17, 816 this past season.
- Was Talbot all bad? Situations explain a lot. Talbot was .927 in even-strength save percentage in 2016-17 (tied for No. 12) but fell to .915 (No. 28) this past season. This is among goalies with 30 or more games.
- So that was the problem? EV GA? Well, part of it. If Talbot had matched his even-strength save percentage from a year ago, 20 fewer goals would have been allowed (1725 x .927 =126, Talbot allowed 146).
- And? When Edmonton had a man disadvantage, Talbot was .877 (No. 17) in 2016-17, .848 (No. 33) in 2017-18. If he had managed the same total as last year, Edmonton would have allowed eight fewer goals.
- Where did the rest of the GA happen? In 661 total minutes in 2016-17, the backup goalies allowed 28 goals. This past season, in 1209 minutes, backups allowed 63.
- So, goaltending, and special teams? Yes, and injuries. Plus the lines after McDavid.
- Oh, is that all? Hehe. Yes. Quite the laundry list.
- What is the plan to fix it? A few things. Todd McLellan has a new and impressive coaching staff, that should help the special teams and hopefully defensive structure.
- And? The McDavid line will have Nuge and Ty Rattie, meaning the second line gets a more talented offensive pivot in Leon Draisaitl.
- Who are Leon’s wingers? Who are Leon’s wingers?
- Did the gap the gap between McDavid on and off ice 5×5 improve? According to Natural Stat Trick, in 2017-18 Edmonton at 5-on-5 was 77-47 with McDavid on the ice, 89-93 without. This past season, Edmonton at 5-on-5 was 81-61 with McDavid on the ice, 82-115 without.
- Shiza. Yes. The Oilers were +30 with 97 in 2016-17, +20 with him in 2017-18. Without him, the team was -4 in 2016-17, -33 without.
- Give up! Well, I think Edmonton missing the playoffs this season is possible, if that’s what you mean.
- Everything would have to break in a good way? Something like that. Edmonton did the right thing this summer, keeping the important pieces, now the organization has to add to the McDavid cluster.
- What is your McDavid cluster? McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson, Nuge.
- Who might be added with a strong winter? Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Bouchard, Matt Benning, Jujhar Khaira. Maybe Ryan Strome. The later group here (Yamamoto, Bouchard) may end up being an echo cluster behind McDavid, but they need to arrive in a quick hurry.
- Is he good with rookies? I would say he is typical of veteran coaches. By that I mean a young player has to be patient because opportunities are rare and veterans are preferred. There is a thread of “earning it” another veteran coaching tactic. He does value skill though, Kailer Yamamoto making the NHL team is a reflection of it.
- What kind of rookies develop under McLellan? I’ve looked at this going back to his San Jose days, and McLellan jumps on the fully formed rookies (McDavid, Benning) but all others are vulnerable to the bench, pressbox or minors. I would say that is typical of a veteran coach.
- What about the 1994’s? That group (Matt Benning, Anton Slepyshev, Jujhar Khaira, Drake Caggiula) delivered a mixed bag of results. Anton Slepyshev should have spent a couple of weeks rehabbing in Bakersfield instead of one game, he never caught up because of it. Drake Caggiula scored 13 goals but his WOWY’s are universally destructive to his teammates. Jujhar Khaira had a solid year but you want to see it again. I am confident Matt Benning is going to be a productive NHL player if he’s healthy. He’s a win.
- What will the lines look like? McLellan’s lines opening night a year ago (Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl; Lucic—RNH—Yamamoto; Jokinen—Strome—Caggiula; Khaira—Letestu—Kassian) were logical based on the available talent. I would have had Jesse Puljujarvi instead or Yamamoto but after that, once the decision was made to move Leon to No. 1 RW, the die was cast.
- What will the lines look like? My guess is Nuge—McDavid—Rattie; Lucic—Draisaitl—Rieder; Caggiula—Strome—Puljujarvi; Khaira—Brodziak—Kassian.
- When will Yamamoto get the call? My guess is 30 games into the season.
- Can the Oilers make the playoffs? Never bet against a Connor McDavid team.
- What would be the best case scenario? Oilers have good health, a rebound from Talbot and both Puljujarvi and Yamamoto emerge as bona fide NHL scorers.
- Is that all! Yeah, Edmonton needs several miles of good stories. The one thing that I believe to be true: There are three quality youngsters (JP, KY, Bouchard) who can have a positive impact and hang around for years. Only question is ETA.
- Will McLellan survive? Yes, I think so. If he didn’t get fired this spring, it won’t happen. He is a veteran NHL coach, popular with the fans and owns a large contract with some term left.
- Is there a danger for him? The first 10 games are going to be a sweatbox.
LT ….with Trent Yawney now in charge of the Dmen, and with it I assume he will have some say in its systems ……will we see a man on man – or a zone type Defence this year…..that is the elephant in the room for me this year.
Predictions are a tough thing in sports. Entering into the 2018-19 season I would say most people are slightly negative on the Oilers’ ability to make the playoffs. Maybe cautious is a better word. Entering into last season, most were very optimistic, even predicting them going all the way. I can’t remember what was said before entering into the 2016-17 season. Probably similar to this year with a bit more guarded optimism.
I think this team, on paper at least, is better than the one that went on a roll the season before last. Of course a few things have to break right (injuries, etc.), but I think the real key to this season is internal growth of the core. All are young enough to improve. Just need to catch a wave and the mojo will ride them into the playoffs.
“What would be the best case scenario? Oilers have good health, a rebound from Talbot and both Puljujarvi and Yamamoto emerge as bona fide NHL scorers.”
I will add to this: Matt Benning progresses and solidifies his spot as a solid 2RD.
The Talbot numbers and the general goals for and against metrics (with and without McDavid) were sure demoralizing.
The question is how much of it was Talbot being bad and how much of it was the defensive group being bad/injured and how much of one is the effect of the other?
A healthier defence will help Cam Talbot and a confident and strong Cam Talbot will help the defence.
– Ah we all love this series LT: yeah!
– LT says: ” But you have to win. Will this be his final season with the team?” What do you think is the line in the sand for the org in order for coach to be back next year?
– I tend to think if no playoffs (or 20 games like start of last season), or 1st round exit, he’s done, and they have now contingencies plans in place. What say you?
He is a coach built to coach an alstar senior team.
With so many young players on the team I’m amazed he kept his job.
If the season goes in the crapper that’s on the GM for keeping an old school coach.
– Also, if we compare this years roster to lasts: I feel it is much better, just based on your line-up
– Maroon was a huge question mark, with a small sample size), vs Rattie = same
– RNH as winger for CmD > Maroon
– Yammer has no business being in the opening, if he makes it this year, he’s a year older = upgrade
– Drai as the 2C > RNH as 2C
– Reider > Kailer from last year
– Caggs vs Joki as 3W: same, but Caggs faster, scores more
– Pool as RW > Caggs from last year
– Strome has an established role, and will also help on PK
– Brodziak > Letetsu
– Kharia is coming off a good season
– Nurse and Benning are a year more experienced (and played a lot last year)
– They didn’t trade Lucic for a return that at best would produce the 34 points Lucic did last year
– You have to assume Sek will be more recovered from his injury: played in worlds, etc
– You have to assume Klef will be better after getting bone-spurs removed
– You have to assume Larsson will be better after family death, back, etc
– You have to assume Talbot won’t be amongst the worst goalies in the league again
– You have to assume that the coahcing moves will get more out of the players, and D development, and the special teams will improve
– And of course you have to assume that as both CmD and Drai, with one more year of experience are going to continue to get better: by far the biggest factor IMO
– I don’t see any objective measure whereby this team is “worse” on paper than the team last year which was a Cup contender by most insiders, and odds-makers
– They had a lot of bad luck, and the coach sucked, and the GM didn’t load up for game 1.
– This team is way better on paper than last years: without “hoping” or “wishing” It just is
I used to be a Goalie. And a Damned Not very good one at that.
BUT, the Defense plays a huge role in the SV% number. To me SV% is a relection of team, not goalie. Looking at the effect just tells us the Team was shitty. It doesnt tell us WHY.
The why is piss poor defensive play by the entire team AND too many softies by Dadbot Combination of the two.
It wont be hard to improve on those poor #’s from last year. But will it be enough????
Kinger_Oil.redux,
Agreed!
IMO TMac’s deployment of his players was baffling to say the least. I question after last year his ability to adjust to the changing of the game.
He doesn’t believe as best I can see in analytics much either. I have little confidence going forward with him but am a little optimistic with the assistant coach hires as long as they get some freedom on how to deploy players on D and special teams.
The biggest things that need to happen for us to make the playoffs and I say this every year at this time is Goaltending and health.
I am predicting a 101 point season with a slow start that may end this coach’s current position.
I am predicting big years for CMD and Nuge if they stay on the same line. Reasonable for me is 138 points with over 50 goals for Connor and 92 points for Nuge.
I think Bouchard makes the team and they dress 7 D until he gets to nine games but can also see him getting the Drai treatment and get in 39 games then back to a contending team in junior and hopefully a memorial cup run.
Yamamoto should play over Rattie and it shouldn’t be close. Play him (as well as Pulju) all season with 2 vets (RNH-97 or Lucic-Drai).
– I’ve said this as well.
– Of course, if Klef and Sek are circa 2016, the ability to “protect” Bouchard in the manner VOR suggested a la Larry Murphy you could project.
– But Memorial Cup, World Junoirs, 40 games: awesome development IMO.
– And ideally Bear, Bouchard, Benning and Larsson on the RW deserving/competing, and Russel gets moved next off-season, because there are better RHD than him at that point
I’m with you this. Sold!
This guy needs to prove he has the back of the team in orange, or fire him and his fancy suits into the sun.
Team in Orange is your team Todd
If they roll up past 90 points and overcome injuries/derailment/bad calls, I think McLellan will retain his job. They have to have a strong recovering season though, say 92 points.
OilClog,
Are they bringing back the blue jerseys? Maybe Todd doesn’t like the orange! I know I’m not a big fan of the construction safety jerseys.
I think Bouchard makes the team and they dress 7 D until he gets to nine games but can also see him getting the Drai treatment and get in 39 games then back to a contending team in junior and hopefully a memorial cup run.
Worth noting that London has Adam Boqvist playing with them next year. May eat into Bouchard’s PP time as a second highly offensive minded RHD.
I’m going to likely get tired of disagreeing with this statement. Still too common after being countered so many times.
We’ll see, though. I should be watching more games this season than I did last season, anyway.
I do hope they sign Tkachuk as well.
I wonder if they could get a Trawney-like coach to help Woodcroft in Bakersfield? Having good PP-PK and good D coaches in the NHL is good, but also having them in your development team is even better (the more influential spot for prospects and culture/system building).
LT, your post was exactly what I was going to write about this morning. Thanks for being a mind reader and stealing all my material!
Anyways, looking at the first ten games of the season, the Oilers will be hard pressed to come out of them with 10 standings points. The keys to surviving those ten games will depend on Talbot, the special teams and the optimal deployment of the roster.
If McLellan can guide the team to a 0.500 record thru 25 games by the end of November (something like 11-11-3) then I believe he’ll survive until the end of the season. In order to do that, he’ll need to take a risk and let Yamamoto, JP and Bouchard play thru their mistakes as top 6 forwards or as a sheltered bottom pair PP specialist. After the first 25, the rest of the schedule sets up to be MUCH easier on the back 2/3rds of the season. My mind says he won’t change his stubborn ways and is fired within 20 games. My heart hopes he’ll be humbled after last year and bend a little leading the Oilers to find some success early in the season & onto a playoff appearance at the end.
My opinion is that Lucic is not suited for top 6 duties and the sooner that McLellan can identify that, the more likely he can save his job. I know the coach will start Lucic on the second line and try and reignite his offence but nothing I observed in last year’s version of Lucic gives me hope. He lost his hands, he lost another step and he lost his fire to engage physically. He needed all three of those aspects to legitimately remain in the Top 6 on merit.
Based on the snippets of information that I have seen or heard, i don’t believe the salary cap will go up much in the next few years. The players finally stopped using the maximum 5% escalator to increase the cap limit but it’ll take 2 years of similar restraint to drive down the escrow which players hate so much. The other looming drag on the salary cap increases are the tit for tat tariffs that may sewer both the American and Canadian economies. If Trump continues in his illogical global trade war, we may see a worldwide recession within 2 years.
You said not one bad thing about McLellan.
Re: Dr. Drai
I remember back in the day the Russian spy spent a lot of time at 4LW and then 1LW before he was trusted handling important minutes as a Center.
It was a good idea to give Drai a couple of years at wing before moving him to the middle, and we should expect that it will be a year or two at C before he is clearly winning the battle.
Is this an RE?
“The guy” answering the questions doesn’t quite seem to be in RE-Prick mode. And no tunage.
This makes some sense, but Dellow just posted an article about how players don’t seem to make a difference in a goalie’s save percentage over the long run.
Ie having your best d-man on or your worst d-man on, no real difference in save percentage.
So the question is why that happens. Just a quality of competition issue?
The save % doesn’t change between quality of defencemen but the number of shots given up and the higher quality shots are also allowed at a higher rate by lesser defencemen. It’ll affect your GAA which is the “team” measure vs Save% being more of a measure of the goalie.
Kinger_Oil.redux,
– I don’t see any objective measure whereby this team is “worse” on paper than the team last year which was a Cup contender by most insiders, and odds-makers
Insiders are generalists who look at wins and loses and come to conclusions.
Odds makers set their lines to maximize their advantage. EDM being a favourite last year’s says more about the betting public than the team.
People who follow this team closely said “Stanley Cup favourite and no 2nd pair Dmen on the opening night rosters?”
This team will be much better than last year.
Mostly due to the Dcorps development and starting the year at full health and coaching changes.
The last thing is not not overplay Talbot, which is why Pete overpaid for someone who has played over 40 games in a season and 29 last year.
– There were too seperate points I made:
1) I don’t think anyone can objectively look at this year’s roster and not say on paper it is better than last year’s full-stop. You just can’t, on paper
2) The Cup part was a reminder of what the “conventional wisdom” said last year
– So we have a team that you can’t refute is not better on paper than last year (more depth, more experience, reasonable assumptions on regression, etc), and no one saying it’s a good team this year
I’d sleep a lot better at night with a big addition upfront. Eberle would fit like a damn glove if they could have afforded him. Miss him dearly.
But Talbot did have one of the lowest save percentages for all starting goalies. He needs to be much better
+1…
This team just on 2 factors should be better.
1. The core players improve with experience & development.
2. The coaches use better systems & strength of player’s abilities
What can go wrong? #becauseOilers
As long as he gets rid of that plaid purple suit, I will drink more & cheer more enthusiastically each game night.
The season will go badly if they intend to rely on Rattie.
Nugent-Hopkins and Rieder for McDavid, and let them roll.
Khaira and Puljujarvi for Draisaitl.
Lucic and Yamamoto for Strome.
And let the AHL’ers (Caggiula/Rattie/and Aberg) fight it out for the spot with Brodziak and Kassian.
Hopefully the waiver wire will expose someone better than the AHL triplets.
He knows there is a yang to his yin out there! -).
A rest of the period, the next period, the next game…is not the “long run”. In the “long run”, a lot of transient effects can be lost.
in the short term, what matter is the next save, not the save percentage. The next save is a discrete event, not an average of thousands of events.
Because who the players are doesn’t matter in the long run, doesn’t mean they don’t matter in the short term. Games are won and lost in the short term.
The mean is not the only variable. The variance is a variable also. The mean doesn’t tell you anything about the variance, and vice versa.
Let’s think about all those 1st shot goal games. How many were there? 10-15? That’s a large percentage of the total. Those goals in many cases were seeing eye, perfectly placed shots. Surely that can’t happen again? Was the effect of those goals to demoralize the team & cause the loss? If so, what if they still won half of them? Those points would have put them in closer contention. Maybe the team doesn’t need to have a lot of things to go perfectly right but instead, not have so few things go insanely wrong. Add things like Russell’s own goal to that.
Honestly…these sunglasses help me see clearly on these cloudy days…😎
This article is a couple of days old now, but I don’t think anyone has posted the link:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/quick-shifts-senators-erik-karlsson-taylor-hall-oilers-maple-leafs-kadri-henrique-tavares/
There’s some Oilery stuff and some Taylor Hall quotes, and an absolutely heartbreaking obit from Ray Emery’s former fiancee that will have you blinking back the salt.
One of the things we chase (and I do it too) is comparing this year’s team and last and saying it’s better/worse now.
Last year’s team, with just good health, was a good hockey club.
It know it is easy to spend someone else’s money, but I am shocked he never takes on the officiating. I’m not some conspiracy theorist that the league is out to get the Oilers, but I imagine that having the coach go to bat for the team is a morale booster.
Also, he never uses timeouts to settle the waters. I cannot begin to count the number of times last season and the Anaheim series where a deep breath was needed!!
– and yet the coach and GM should have been fired a long time ago…
– So we have a good team that played bad and was unlucky, but a bad coach and GM who sewered this team
– Expectations are everything. I hope this team does really well this year, if only for the walking back of so much: would be rich…
Woodguy v2.0,
Woodguy,
Earlier, you posted a comment trying to maximize the second line’s performance. I think you stated that Lucic and Nuge had break-even CF%/ GF% together and that re-uniting McDavid and Draisaitl would create a great first line. Assuming I did not mis-understand your comment, how would you deploy the first two lines in 2018-19, and where would you put Rieder relative to those pairings?
Appreciate all you do for this site – thanks!
LT, was ‘universally destructive’ meant to be a double entendre, or did I just read it that way?
I’m willing to play the 4th line very selectively against weakest opposition possible.
Nuge – McDavid – Puljujarvi (captain and RNH have to mentor this important kid)
Lucic – Draisaitl – Rieder (coach has got to figure out how to use Lucic)
Khaira – Strome – Kassian (big heavy veteran line with decent speed)
Aberg/Cagiula – Brodziak – Marody/Rattie (can Brodziak help them “saw-off”?)
or
Nuge – McDavid – Strome
Rieder – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi
Lucic – Khaira – Kassian (yeah I like this line in Calgary)
Aberg/Cagiula – Brodziak – Marody/Rattie
or
Khaira – McDavid – Strome
Rieder – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi
Lucic – RNH – Kassian
Aberg/Cagiula – Brodziak – Marody/Rattie
“… I imagine that having the coach go to bat for the team is a morale booster.”
In McLellan’s defense, the team in orange… dayymn!
I’d add a few things to the best case scenario, things that we won’t know about until a ways into the season:
1. Sekera rebounds to something like his old level (quite possible).
2. Koskinen turns out to be a solid backup who can actually win games (who knows?).
3. Lucic rebounds to some sort of useful level. I think best case would be 3rd line F who can move up as needed and slot in on the power play (possible). Or even just 4th line F who can bring a physical element (quite likely, I think). That said, I fully expect McLellan to play him top 6 F for 20 games regardless of how he plays, to jump start his game, as V4ance said earlier in the thread.
– This is an awesome quote from Raptors GM: ““I understand sports. Sports is about winning. I have a mandate to win and that’s what I want to do: put the Toronto Raptors in a position to win. But I acknowledge there’s no measurement for what DeMar Derzan has done for this organization. That’s why we play sports. To win, and compete for a championship.”
– At some point the coach and GM of the Oil will be fired: they are always fired.
– I think we have a good team. I think the coach knows the score
– The GM knows what Masai says: it’s about winning.
– I think the knives out for Chia were not looking at big picture, and they will be wrong
– I think our team is way better than it was years prior. I think the coach and GM made mistakes. I think the best course of action was exactly what happened:
1) Nicholson protected Chia because he knows who did/said what
2) They got a better staff for Coach (and coach-in-waiting, and he knows the drill
3) As an organization, they learn from the year, and build. You don’t blow it up
You’re the original yang, the O.Y. I’m Lil Yang or Young Yang.
Let’s go on tour. You’ll headline. I’ll open with my chart-topper (in Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan): Nobody Does Lose It Better. We can play to the (apparently) 2 or 3 other discontents out there in Oiler Nation. Make modest bank. Then head to the after party at the fish and chips place. Order some henny. Get crunk. Say mean things about McLellan until they throws us out, y’all…
=
yes
no
Caggiula was 3-14 in GF – GA in the opening twenty-one last year, and that GA stink follows him everywhere.
In the same amount of games(13 vs 14) Jokinen was 1-4, but Jokinen had sterling possession metrics(including a 23 to 10 count of high danger chances) and Caggiula had his usual ones
If they run something like Caggiula – Brodziak – Kassian on the fourth line, and we find out Brodziak can’t skate anymore a la Letestu the same thing will happen – a goals hole that wastes the lead McDavid gets us.
I don’t /think/ this will happen, but there’s certainly a chance and not something you can just assume
That’s the deal with all of the assumptions you have to make for this team to make the playoffs, yes there’s not but a minute chance that things fall apart in the exact same way they did last year, but there’s tons of other things that didn’t go wrong this year and could go wrong next year:
Say Talbot performs well, but gets an actual season halving injury.
Say Draisaitl gets a season halving injury.
Say Larsson goes down and it’s Benning/Russell on the top pairing.
I’m not gonna say the main, terrifying item, but you know it’s possible.
…
How many games will the Oilers win here:
EDM v NJD ( Europe ) – 55%
EDM @ BOS – 40%
EDM @ NYR ( matinee, Saturday morning in NYC ) – 50%
EDM @ WPG – 40%
EDM v BOS – 40%
EDM v NSH – 40%
EDM v PIT – 45%
EDM v WSH – 45%
EDM @ NSH – 40%
EDM @ CHI – 50%
EDM v MIN – 50%
EDM v CHI – 50%
EDM @ DET – 50%
EDM @ WSH – 45%
EDM @ TBL – 40%
EDM @ FLA – 45%
…
That’s the first 16 games of the season.
They could easily be 5 – 10 – 1 or worse, 11 of 32 available points and be on the outside looking in all year.
That being said, if Talbot/Koskinen start on fire, the powerplay runs a heater and the echo cluster runs the table then they’re pretty much home free for the rest of the season, and I’m not joking.
They have the easiest ‘rest’ schedule in the league this year. But that start is that start.
Of the two scenarios, one is more likely.
Godot has distilled what might be the key points for Todd McClellan. Keep marginal NHL talent out of the top 9. That minimizes risk and uncertainty, and (should) maximize the top 9’s projected productivity.
Some permutation of that top 9 can probably get the job done with minimal uncertainty or risk. Your question marks are reduced to two (all other things being equal):
—Is Kassian better at 3RW than one of the fringe NHLers or Yamamoto?
—Where best to place Jesse and Lucic?
Nuge – McDavid – Puljujarvi
Lucic – Draisaitl – Rieder
Khaira – Strome – Kassian
Aberg/Caggiula – Brodziak – Marody/Rattie
In the Carolina game, that sequence where Benning hammers Brock McGinn(who is fantastic) into the boards and then ends up batting the puck out of the air and off Darling and in at the other end, that stuff heals my soul.
I strongly agree as in first and second lines for the AHL team where they belong until such time as they. Are ready for bonafide NHL time!
Very true and to the D where we were thin to start with. With the emergence of Nurse and more experience for Benning not to mention Bear we are in much better position to withstand some injuries!
Whoa, with respect, its tough for me to go past this first line.
In my opinion, Rattie isn’t anywhere near equal to Maroon.
We aren’t even sure if Rattie is an NHL player playing with anyone other than McDavid and, frankly, the goal share could have been an anomaly given the negative possession metrics (and the fact that McDavid/Rattie got absolutely caved when not with Nuge).
Rattie is a well below average defensive player and, if that is not markedly improved this year, he will not last as 1RW.
Maroon, on the other hand, is one of the few Oiler forwards over the last few years to actually have positive possession metrics (and I believe goal share metrics) when not with McDavid.
He also has a much more refined overall game and adds many other elements than scoring.
Well, depending on Sekera’s health, its the exact same starting 6 that played in front of Talbot during his almost Vezina-candidate season in 2016/17 – the only d-man that should be worse due to injury/regression is Sekera. Nurse is markedly better, Benning likely better and Larsson/Klef potentially better (they should be hitting their prime for d-men in the next bit).
I guess my answer to the question is, if Sekera is close to 100% (big if), then, it could be.
This depends on Yamamoto himself.
I have very little doubt that Yamamoto would produce more points and generally play better than Rattie – right off the start. At the same time, that doesn’t mean that the NHL is the best place for Yamamoto’s development. It very well may be, we don’t know until camp/preseason/etc.
If Kailer looks like he could benefit from 10, 20, 40, 80 AHL games then he should be sent to Bakersfield even if he’d likely be better in the NHL than Rattie.
I would exchange khaira and Lucic to bring a little more speed to the second line. Lucic seems to lack the requisite speed to play with Drai and Rieder. I would however have Licic as net front presence on one of the two pp!
I’m not overly concerned about 10 games and burning a year of Bouchard’s ELC (sometimes that’s actually beneficial to future cap management – generally with forwards though I would say).
The more important threshold, in my mind, is the 40 games on the roster which triggers a year of service towards UFA status.
Unless he’s a material part of a winning team, he should be sent back before that target vests.
Goaltenders will win (steal) games that a Team was never in, never meant to win.
Goaltenders will lose (give away) games that a Team should always win, no matter how much they score.
The better the Goaltenders the more the first happens and the less the second happens. Everything else is the responsibility of the defenders, not just the Defense.
Eberle isn’t the cure for what ails the top 6. It’s not a lack of talent, it’s a lack of two way players that score enough to support Leon and Connor in he way they need it.
I would agree with this for the most part but I would switch Yamamoto and Rieder – yes, it gives Kailer tough minutes but, to me, it makes sense given pedigree and skillset (Rattie’s draft pedigree is no longer really relevant).
Also, as per a previous post i made, if Kailer looks like he needs AHL development time, he should get it even if he would be a better option than Rattie. Yes, I want to win this year and right out of the gate but this team’s true success is a few years away and predicated partially on prospect development and success.
Kailer’s proper development is more important than the benefit he would provide over Rattie in the lineup at the start of this season.
I am confident that 2 and 3 will happen.
With respect to #1, sadly, I have some info from a doctor friend in Edmonton (heresay info mind you) that his knee was really really bad. This was after the injury, not to do with the recovery process – I have no intel on that. Anyways, I am hopeful on Reggie, he is a very important player on this roster.
I’ve been very critical of the Koskinen contract but I’m OK with the bet on the player – for the amount of money spent (at a time when there was no extra money to spend), I still can’t wrap my head around the contract but I am hopeful the player can play 20-25 games of solid tending.
For a bounce-back, I am hopeful for 20-25-45 from Lucic. I do think that he will get considerable time on the 2nd line. I go back and forth but I think it makes sense. A bounce back to a serviceable middle 6 winger from Milan would be HUGE for this team’s success – I think the potential benefit is material enough that it deserves a real shot until he’s relegated to purgatory – if he’s a hot mess for 15 games, purgatory it is.
The additions to the top 6 wing will need to come from internal development (prospect development) for the forseeable future. No sure bets in our pool but the pool is becoming deeper by the year and a few are going to hit.
Not saying this will happen but what is Kril Maksimov hits? What if he develops in to a legit top 6 NHLer? With that shot, he will score alot of goals.
There are 4-5 assets developing – we just need one (two would be great) to hit.
I agree they need good two way players in the top six, but it is also undoubtably a lack of talent. There’s three Actual Top Six Forwards on this team right now.
To be clear: Conventional wisdom in bunk in this case. Those who set the “conventional wisdom” don’t know much past the win/loss column from the year before.
Also,
I am saying its a good team this year.
Kinger_Oil.redux,
– and yet the coach and GM should have been fired a long time ago…
Because the GM took over a roster that could have been dominant by now.
They have 97, 29 and 93, but also Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto. Rattie may offer them some time until Yamamoto is ready.
The two-way guy to watch is Tobias Rieder. Rieder’s goal peak is 16, not crazy to suggest he hits 20. If he does, the three top guys perform as expect, and even one of JP of KY emerge, we’ll be talking about some exciting things next spring.
KY and JP are substantial players, the bet is they blossom right now. It isn’t a terrible bet.
OriginalPouzar,
“I’m not overly concerned about 10 games and burning a year of Bouchard’s ELC (sometimes that’s actually beneficial to future cap management – generally with forwards though I would say).”
Whats an example where this is Better for a teams Cap?
When the poor D-zone sorties outnumber the good ones, it’s not just on the goaltending.
We cleared the team of good forecheckers, responsible defensive forwards, and our best defensive forward focused on offense all season. We still don’t play as a five man unit behind the blue line with and without the puck. Talbot having a down year and unreliable backups played a factor, but not all of it.
When the analytics community still continues to propagate the myth that the game is just offense and goaltending, that smacks of laziness. Corsi and PDO show value, but they don’t show all of the value.
The chips in skates and in the puck can’t come fast enough for me.
2017 Oilers benefited from the Element of surprise. Teams played their backup Goalies; took the Oilers lightly and didnt understand how good McDavid was. Everything broke right for the Team.
One of the biggest “misleading” things was the Oilers finished on a Heater 16-2. They were tracking as a 95 point team but finished 103.
Last year every team was ready and “Up” to play Edmonton and face Connor. We got caved. Many a night the team went decade of Darkness; and was out of the game after the 1st period.
As you have all pointed out, many reasons to believe this year will be Better. Hard to be worse. But playoff team? Dont see it”
Woodguy is on the record saying this is a Good team. I will go on the record saying this is an average team. I will take the under on 92 Points.
I was just looking for pairs that got > 50%GF last year in the top 6 and 29-97 and 27-93 were it.
If the coach were to start down that road I’d suggest:
22 (Rieder)-97-29
27-93-98
16-18-8
46 (Aberg) -28 (Brodziak)- 44
If Yamamoto eats Rattie’s lunch in camp then he gets 3RW.
Rieder adds a bit of defensive conscience to the 1st line, has played top 6 and can keep up. 97-29 were 54.4% CF and 57.4% GF last year.
I want the 2nd line to do better than 50% and I think 98 breaks out this year. 27-93-98 were 48% CF and 50%GF (2-2) in 91 minutes last year, that should improve with 98’s improvement and the Dcorps health.
93 & 27 were 51.4% CF and 57.1% GF (12-9) last year in 223 minutes away from 98, but I think 98 steps up to help this year.
3rd line is soft minutes. Khaira and Strome were 52%CF and 50% GF (11-11) in 263 minutes last year.
The 4th line should do well as well with 2 vets and I think Aberg is a Actual NHL Player.
Also,
I actually typed 51 for Brodziak and then double checked.
I should have added “although it leaves management and the head coach vulnerable.”
Cagguila is a Black Hole he might be on 3rd line.
Lucic had …. what 3 assists in his last 40 games …he might be on the 2nd line
Rattie terrible Wowy’s
Reider poor Wowy’s
You can only hide so many guys.
Hunter1909’s treatise on whisky:
When I was a young teenager I hardly drank alcohol. Early twenties and the baddest of bad company saw another direction lol
Scottish ancestors from the high highlands give me the veritable RIGHT to drink whisky. My only regret is that I wasn’t able to actually live in Scotland. I’d want to make friends with the local police asap, just to be able to know what are the best nights for making moonshine which am certain 3/4 of Aberdeen is in on one way or another.
My Scots ancestors were the most barbaric of the barbarians. This DNA anomaly lurks in my tribe to this day; but, back in THE day the intrepid souls were able to sail the seven seas, easy Rider style looking and finding adventure. Scum sucking tenant farmers in the Auld country, yet able to shine once freed from the shackles of British life.
I understand we now live in 2018, with everything on the table. No worries. But to any white-race haters, please take my advice and peruse the old 1930’s and 1940’s German propaganda films. People have no idea just how nasty us whites are happy to be, when pressed.
Today I follow a ridiculous NHL team, the Edmonton Oilers. You hate Peter Puck, while I celebrate the fact that unless we had Pocklington’s backgammon win there’s no Gretzky, nothing. Forgive me, I understand the guy went rogue later on. But I wasn’t there.
ConnorMcfreakingDavid’s the greatest talent since Bobby Orr. But instead of defence he’s a centre!!
Thanks to Lowe+MacT continuing to breathe air at Rexall Place(or whatever they call it now) destroys my hope that any cups are forthcoming. Sorry, but that’s reality.
On the bright side, Connor McDavid’s a genius. A bona fide genius. Like Bobby Fischer was at chess, in 1972.
Whisky? That’s a drink I’d be willing to buy for a dollar!
Which is better?
Yamamoto plays first 20 games in the NHL. The start of the season is a bit slower, teams still getting sorted out, lots of rookies playing, some AHLer’s about to hit the waiver wire. As the pace ramps up to full speed and perhaps Yamamoto starts to falter a little, he heads for Bakersfield.
Or Yamamoto starts in Bakersfield, adjusts to new team and new league. He misses the NHL getting ramped up and joins after 20 games just as the NHL league hits full speed? (While also joining new linemates and learning new systems.)
I know Lowetide is prepared to issue bans on the spot re this prospect;
However, maybe the freaking idiots in charge of this loser franchise of all time actually do the right thing and bury this kid until he’s ripe.
Hell, I’m still in stitches over JP.
Strome could be a top 6 winger, numbers posted here recently show strong underlying numbers, but he wasn’t given a chance to settle.
Lucic’s underlying numbers are also not bad. His boxcars sucked, he should regress some. He has to be used the right way. McLellan was more interested in forcing players to play the system by bouncing htem, as Babcock did, an old timey tactic.
He as also stubborn on who he would pair. Maybe the new assistants loosen things up up a bit and it gets more creative.
Brodziak can decently play in the top 6 with other good players, he did last season.
The Oilers aren’t bereft, they are out of balance IMO. And the coach lacked inspiration or had a mandate.
Really, what team is ideal? They all have holes, bad contracts and weaknesses. Darling Tampa couldn’t get it done again, maybe they are built like many before in a way that lets them dominate reg season but isn’t right for the Smackdown, er, playoffs.
Sort of like the Wild, Predators, and Blues.
Just for shits and giggles, which of these teams has any player within a light year of Connor McDavid’s talent?
Yeah, I’m secretly(not secretly for anyone who remembers me defending Yamamoto around Christmas last year) the highest or tied on Kailer, in both ETA and ceiling.
The ceiling scenario is of course opened by Kailer breaking camp.
If they play like they did last fall but cash chances, 93/97/56 are going to run four goals an hour.
McDavid typically turns 16 HDCF/60 for 3.6 GF/60 but with Nuge the chances were better on ice than they were on paper, and Yamamoto+McDavid’s output was 22/60.
Wouldn’t be surprising to see them meet in the “middle” for say ~18/60 HDCF, cash at the usual rate and then you’re already at 4.0 GF/60+.
Add that to the fact that in my opinion, if the powerplay gets back to form(top-10) it’ll be allowed because someone right handed is doing something right, if it’s Yamamoto he’ll be good for the ~10 Letestu goals there and we’ll be shouting about finally getting the rookie honours in town.
…
I can’t say all this when I’m trying to counterbalance the conversation, though.
That’s the thing though, those are could-be’s and decentlys.
Regular Playoff teams have stuff like this:
Huberdeau – Barkov – Dadanov
Hoffman – Trocheck – Bjugstad
There’s one half of a question mark in there, compared to three for the Oilers.
Giroux – Couturier – Konecny
JVR – Patrick – Voracek
These are just standard, playoff teams. Nothing crazy.
Kane – Thornton – Meier
Couture – Hertl – Pavelski
Most other teams, that have holes like ours up front are considered playoff-maybes.
That’s where we are because our D-corps doesn’t pull us ahead of the pack as currently constructed.
…
Yes, no team is stacked top to bottom but the reason Tampa didn’t win is because only one team wins.
My theory is that you have to have an elite team for 5 years in order to win the cup without more than a spoonful of luck.
First, have a snickers
Then, who wants s to say when Yamamoto is ripe? And just how much sun does he need to get there. Shelf the past for a minute – I also have lots of thoughts looking backwards.
I was just pondering that bonding with the team through preseason and the first 20 games of NHL May be an easier road than moving teams/coaches/linemates in order to”work on your game” in the AHL. Then joining the NHL when it’s full speed.
I can’t say it had any benefit to Jessie P development.
If I think about Drai or Nurse it certainly provided motivation as they were pissed, but I’m not certain how much the AHL actually contributed to thier development in those relatively few games.
LT. why do you have Aberg on the outside looking in and Caggiula on the third line?
Is that numbers, gut based on org verbal, or both?
By my eye, the young Swede offers far more offensive upside than the Drake and I’ve love to see MacLellan give him and Strome some time to gel on that 3L.
A hearty +1 on this.
The optimal scenario for the oddsmaker is equal exposure on both sides of the line and they take the vig.
So, Edmonton as favourites means oddsmakers saw themselves overexposed to underdog action if they didn’t post the Oil as favourites. As you say, this says everything about the betting public’s perception of the team. But it’s important to remember that much of that perception is driven by recent history. Having narrowly missed the third round the year previous, the Oil should’ve been one of the odds on favourites for the dance.
The question for me is after what happened with VGK and WSH last year, how can anyone hope to accurately forecast preseason Cup contender odds with any degree of accuracy? This league has achieved true parity.
MacLellan turned them into a dump & chase team that doesn’t chase with consistency. The result is one season long dump resulting in the playoffs being flushed.
With even below average luck this team will be competing for the playoffs.
Oilers were insanely unlucky on the the special teams last season. They scored 31 PP goals. The next lowest in Oilers history was 34 goals in 12/13. The season where the schedule was 48 games…
The set a historical record in futility on the home PK…..
If the Oilers go to like 20th and 20th on the PP and PK, they will improve by over 20 goals. If Talbot rebounds just a little then the OIlers will be close to even on goal differential.
Average to above average luck and this team is a playoff team. I’d say they are a little better than 50% odds to make the playoffs, but things could go wrong of course.
Any team serious about winning isn’t placing entitled draft picks on the NHL team for real games.
Oilers, prefer to go the “I wasn’t expecting success” route. Nice – Chiarelli as you fuck up multiple seasons, lol
Bag of Pucks,
especially at home vs. Cowstown
Orange vs. White/Red?
Blue jerseys vs. Flames please.
My lines are based on what Todd McLellan is likely to do.
Edm had 78 Points last year, thats with Connor on a heater for the last 25 games.
They will need 17 more points.
There are metrics out there that allot points to players. IE: you add a good player X and he represents 3.3 points in the Standings. What Edm has added vs what they have lost; maybe represents +1 or +2 points. A lot of West teams got better by more than that.
So “WE” are basing our 17 points on Good Health and Better Special teams. Can happen but the betting man would say the odds are against it.
David Staples is worse at his day job than he is at his moonlight:
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/david-staples-in-new-social-studies-curriculum-theres-no-such-things-as-albertans
I think yamamoto will have a carreer in the NHL. I think it is unfair to throw him on one of the top two lines with so little experience! We all saw how long it took him to get his mojo back when he was sent back to junior last year! I feel we need to give him time to adjust to playing as a pro in the AHL against other professionals first.
It likely won’t be the case that Bakersfield has a different system/style considering Woodcroft is there.
Wilde,
CHI has an awful Dcorps. EDM is 60% vs them imo.
EDM is 55-60% vs DET, same with NYR even though its an afternoon game.
Everything you have at 40% should be 45% imo
The toughest part is some of the game timing and being on the road so much.
Agreed that its a tough first 16.
I think they can come out it 7-7-2.
russ99,
When the analytics community still continues to propagate the myth that the game is just offense and goaltending, that smacks of laziness. Corsi and PDO show value, but they don’t show all of the value.
If you’ve run out of straw a significant amount of family still farms so I have access to lots.
That might be the most Hunter 1909 post ever.
They also keep moving the line north or south until they get 50/50 on either side of the vig.
Getting action with EDM as the favourite speaks loudly about the betting public imo.
Most every single one of those percentages is off, while still on the right side of 50 in my opinion. It’s just kind of a rough way of demonstrating how few games the Oilers have the better shot of winning this side of American thanksgiving.
NYR matinee I was memeing.
I like Crawford a lot, but goalies.
Detroit I’m actually pretty high on their forwards and they have a couple of Djoos candidates.
If the Oilers are fake-five-hundred coming out of the tunnel I think they make or miss by a point or two.
That’s about the only decent thing I’ve ever read from that reporter.
Propagandizing very young children with postmodern political ideology should be considered child abuse. Hopefully this curriculum gets the debate it desperately needs prior to any implementation.
I get you, to me only Philly’s group appeals. It still has an aging Gironde, a green Patrick, JVR on the crest of the hill. SJ is getting too old and the younger outside of Couture aren’t better than Strome used better.
Barkov is great, for the rest I take the Oilers. It all comes down to teams gelling and playing well as a team. When that happens everybody plays better, when the opposite happens everybody looks worse.
The Oilers have good players now, the key is for the coaches to create the environment where players are put into n spots to succeed, and to give lines time to settle. That didn’t happen last season and I think it was from young players learning that you can’t do it alone, and coaches not synching and finding the right tone and length of stick which TM mentioned.
Every team needs the supporting cast to step up and good coaches like Gallant allow players to screw up as long as they are following the system. I’m not sure that happened last season and it created too much tension which makes players think too much and slows play and reduces effectiveness.
I don’t think this roster is the league’s best but it has the best player , and it could be a surprise in the opposite direction this season. Cup? Not without great fortune. Deep playoffs? With goaltending and enough health, and a positive environment, I wouldn’t be surprised.
The key to this season is McL making Cagguila the 14 th forward if he can’t figure it out asap and Kassian either playing like a vet or becoming the 13 th forward. Best available options recognized and on the roster, players coached to be motivated positively and given a fair shot based on actual performance.
And I suppose goalies.
Everything else is good enough to compete barring Edmonton pro sports level injuries.
Political Correctness is as ugly a politic as all the other ugly closed minded politics.
Will we ever learn? Probably not.
Scungilli Slushy,
You’re underrating Florida by a lot I think.
– two LW’s Nuge-level, Huberdeau 69 points last year
– two RW’s proven better than anyone on our right side, Dadanov had 65 points last year
– Vincent Trochek 75 points last year at 2C
– Barkov top 10 player in the game
– Even Bjugstad had 49 points last year
And that’s a team that missed the playoffs.
The premise is pretty straightforward – a player is generally more developed and established after their draft plus 4 year than after their draft plus 3 and will warrant a higher AAV on their 2nd contract.
Taylor Hall comes to mind – he had 80 points in 75 games in his draft plus 4 year – if his first year slid and his second contract was signed after that season, he would have come in much higher than $6M I would think.
I’m going to guess that Puljujarvi will be re-signed for less this off-season than if his contract expired after the 2019/20 season – that’s just speculation though. Having Jesse on the NHL roster for 40 games, that was the mistake.
Not really.
Think of it this in terms of goal differential. (all data from offsidereview.com)
Overall Goal Diff
16/17 243-207 (+36)
17/18 227-260 (-33)
That a drop of 69 goals (not nice)
5v5 Goal Diff
16/17 166-140 (+26)
17/18 163-174 (-11)
-37 goal swing year over year
Basically all of the dive in 5v5 GF% is due to goals against.
A healthy Dcrops with 4 Actual NHL Top 4 Dmen and two 5/6 Dmen will drive that GA down a ton this year (ceteris barabis)
5v4 Goal Diff
16/17 51-5 (+46)
17/18 29-5 (+24)
-22 goal swing year over year
I have no idea how a 5v4 with 97 can suck the hind banana, but it did. (moving 29 out of the middle was the start of the madness imo)
Vivreios had the best PP in the WHL last year and was top 5 the year before all based on player movement to create lanes. The static PP is gone. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
4v5 Goal Diff
16/17 4-38 (-34)
17/18 10-56 (-46)
-12 goal swing
note: the other two goals are in 5v3, 3v4, 6v5 and 5v6
So, when you assume Dmen health, decent coaching and goalie equilibrium its pretty easy to find 60 of those goals that they lost last year.
Also,
I remember running the numbers for EDM in terms of goal diff from 15/16 to my projection for 16/17 and I kept coming up with +22 or so.
EDM had a goal diff of -43 in 15/16 and here I was finding a +22 for 16/17. A difference of 65 goals is pretty rare year over year so I backed it off strictly due to convention and ignored my projections.
They finished +36 so the actual goal diff year over year was +79, and here I was worried that +61 was too much.
I can find +60 goals 18/19 over 17/18 no problem.
Let us all pray that The Good Gord is willing and the creek don’t rise.
Peter Chiarelli will find a sniper for 97 before David Staples finds his apolitical geographer. It doesn’t exist.
Same novice approach was evidenced in his “analysis” of the ice district, yet taken as a studious and serious urban commentator.
As a third generation prairie boy to grandparents who marched in orange day parades, and learned nothing of it in school, I hope the new generation understands their history as settlers and grows into maturity faster than my education allowed…
Nothing to do with being PC.
I hope David Staples sticks to his night job.
I’ve avoided this as I try to not add self inflicted aggravation for no reason, but lemme guess:
-He used a few quotes way out of context
-Built his argument upon a half dozen straw men piled one atop the other
-Was disingenuous throughout the entire exercise
Am I close?
Very fair sir.
In regards to DET, I bet on Dcorps–>Goalies–>Centers–>Wingers. Howard is good, but he’s getting older and has no help.
Betting on EDM being 5-9-2 after the first 16 is probably good business.
I’m just giddy from looking at Dcorps in the Pacific and WC this year and seeing EDM near the top.
Scungilli Slushy,
The one hope is that these types of movements tend to cannibalize themselves and self-destruct. Not always as obviously there have been a few historical tragedies, and of course the ongoing horror in Venezuela. But usually. And when these movements do fold, they fold fast.
There has already been a backlash by the liberal lefties against the illiberal SJW lefties. One is the Dr. Haidt mentioned in the article, and quite a few members of his Heterodox Academy.
But I feel horrible for parents right now. What the hell do they do?
Pylons are pretty stationary and quite often get run over ,LOL. Except for McD of course!
Woodguy v2.0,
1.Jagr
2.Hasek
3.Hemsky
I didint mean to throw down off topic especially as I don’t contribute much on topic.
I just really don’t like that guy and this article evidences all his poor reasoning.
His shtick with both hockey and politics is built around dog whistles and identity.
I’m not even sure what he believes in regards to either of them. I think he just knows what sells copy/clicks.
I have nothing but contempt for that approach.
We all gotta eat, but have some self respect.
Yeah there’s a lot to talk about re: Pulujarvi and Yamamoto working out and the impact that would have, but I think if Sekera goes 2016-17 level and Benning continues his trajectory the Oilers don’t need almost anything else to break right to make the playoffs.
…
Wanna know something spooky about Anaheim’s Dcorps though?
Their latest crop is this:
Josh Mahura (2016)
Jacob Larsson (2015)
Marcus Petersson (2014)
Mahura was a Tyler Benson bet, missed his whole draft year with a knee injury. Super talented.
Ducks cashed it, he recovered. Full conversion. God damnit.
Larsson & Petersson were 1LD and 2LD in San Diego and posted +13.4 and +10.6 GF% rel.
All,
Here’s an example of why I look at Dcorps first (and then goalies) and try not to get enamored with forwards unless they are really high end and in front of an Actual NHL Top 4 Dcorps.
WSH 13/14
Goal Differential 225-229 (-4)
Missed the playoffs (9th in Conference)
Top 6 forwards via total TOI
Backstrom
Ovechkin
Johansson
Brower
Chimera
Ward
WSH 14/15
Goal Differential 237-199 (+38)
Finished 4th in Conference
Top 6 forwards via TOI
Backstrom
Ovechkin
Ward
Johansson
Brower
Fehr
WTF?
Fehr and Chimera were the only forwards to swap spots in the top 6. Why the difference?
WSH 13/14
Top 6 Dmen via total TOI
Carlson
Alzner
Green
Orlov
Erskine
Schmidt
WSH 14/15
Top 5 Dmen via total TOI
NIskanen
Orpik
Carlson
Alzner
Green
Schmidt
Remember that in 13/14 Carlson was 23 and led WSH in TOI.
Green has been over his head outside of 3rd pair 5v5 for his career.
Orlov was 22. Erskine was done and never played after this year.
In 14/15 Niskanen was a killer add as he was clearly the best RHD on PIT the year before and Orpik was still useful.
Having a Dcorps where your top 4 are Actual NHL Dcorps and not playing above their Actual NHL ability is soooooooooooo goddamn important and most people miss it.
I see this situation over and over in the NHL and Dcorps quality and depth means more than anything when projecting where a team finishes. (assuming health)
The Dmen have two main jobs:
1) Stop the opposition sortie
2) Get the puck back and get it to a team mate.
If they can’t do that, it doesn’t matter how good the forwards are.
This is why I’m bullish on EDM this year.
*prays for health*
ANA drafts Dmen better than any team out there and its not close.
I wish I knew why.
Bob Murray has run their NHL Dcorps thin this year and Carlyle is even more old school than McLellan.
Rookies need not apply unless he’s forced to play them and with Sustr & Schenn he won’t be forced to unless injuries hit.
Oh I know. I hope they sign two more shitty vets for the bottom pairing and lose the young trio to cap constraints and poor value trades just like Stoner&Bieksa and Vatanen&Theodore.
I wasn’t meaning to project those guys into their rosters next year per se. The oldest one looks pencilled in but thats it.
It’s infuriating though, they’ll always be good due to it.
Unleas the mandate goes too far. The Too Many Good Players™ mandate usually only applies to top 6 / bottom 6 forwards, but Murray applied it to defencemen.
This isn’t Grade 6, it is Kindergarten to Grade 4. Kids less than half your age then. In a different world. Not to mention the same sort of curriculum changes have either come or are coming to Math, English and Science.
But please continue to think this is exactly the same as what you experienced.
The rest of us will engage in further inquiry and debate. And demanding diversity of viewpoints over ideology. Truth over some group’s notion of justice.
The fact that teachers are among the most concerned with these changes means that there’s nothing to see here.
Nashville isn’t close? I would’ve guessed the Preds were.
hunter1909,
Hunter…it’s July & you’re already starting to scare me.
This doesn’t coincide with my memory of that curriculum. I don’t ever remember the teacher lauding Maoism. And terraced farms were around a LONG time before the Cultural Revolution (a fact which we were taught).
Since ’08:
Gardiner
Schultz
Vatanen
Fowler
Heed
Manson
Lindholm
Theodore
Petersson
Montour
Larsson
Mahura
vs
Josi
Ellis
Ekholm
Bitetto
Jones
Fabbro
Girard
I’m going with Anaheim by a lot, especially when you take draft position into account.
Wow did anyone listen to Pat Maroon on Spittin Chiclets ?
He had no offers. None.
He fired his agent and has the Blues players call him and signed the only offer on the table from Armstrong.
Why does Chia have a job as an NHL GM ?
And at forward they have Sam Steel and Maxime Comptois, and a next generation douchebag in Max Jones.
I’m whatever on those three. Sam Steel’s good, but not as good as his breakout year would lead you to expect because I’m pretty sure Adam Brooks was a big part of it, as evidenced by the .5 points per game drop from 16-17 to 17-18 despite being a year older.
Comtois also looks good but has the same issue with Abramov.
And with Max Jones, the offense just isn’t really there.
I’d say Lundestrom immediately became their best forward prospect by a fair amount. Not too much going on there, especially compared to the young Dmen’s peaks and perpetuity.
NSH had a great run with:
2003
Suter 7th
Weber 49th
2005
Franson 79th
2008
Josi 38th
2009
Ellis 11th
Ekholm 102nd
2013
Jones 4th
Great drafting, but remember that 3 of the 6 were drafted top 11th.
Here’s ANA:
2008
J. Shultz 43rd
2009
Vatanen 106th
2010
Fowler 12th
2011
Manson 160th
2012
Lindholm 6th
2013
Theodore 26th
2014
28th Petterson (its early on him)
55th Montour
2015
27th Larsson (early on him too)
Every bloody year they hit on a Dman outside the first or with their first or with both.
Its crazy and so far above the norm it needs to be studied.
It’s okay. He’s always struck by a huge bout of optimism just before the season starts.
And then we play a game…
You forgot Jake Gardiner.
– It’s my experience that anyone who prefaces a response by saying “with respect” is code for the exact opposite.
– Today Maroon > Rattie. YOu mised my point…
– 2 years ago, Maroon was a fat give-away, who was zoomed by McD
– Today, Rattie is a AHL’er who was zoomed by McD
– It is just as reasonable to believe Rattie will score 44 points with McD as it was with Maroon 2 years ago. McD is years better, RNH is a better winger for that line than Drai IMO
– All Rattie has to do is score. He’s a better scorer historically than Maroon, pre-NHL
– The expectations for Rattie this year should not be worse than Maroon’s 2 years ago IMO
How do you explain the drop from the previous season with that method?
Eberle + Pouliot + half a season of Sekera is worth 25 points in the standings?
Is betting on EDM being 5-9-2 after the first 16 AND making the playoffs also probably good business?
Okay, since I wasn’t around for all of this and (from what I can see) people refrained from being too ridiculous, I will let it stand. That said, I would ask for the conversation to cease at this point re: Alberta education. The EJ gives people to opportunity to comment on their articles, perhaps that is a more fitting forum.
Growing up in SK, we learned about geography, farming and calving. That’s it.
Good catch.
Thanks for that.
ANA revised:
2008
Gardiner 17th
J. Shultz 43rd
2009
Vatanen 106th
2010
Fowler 12th
2011
Manson 160th
2012
Lindholm 6th
2013
Theodore 26th
2014
28th Petterson (its early on him)
55th Montour
2015
27th Larsson(early on him too)
Sick.
Lowetide,
Quite right. Deleted my rant. I can email the author and attempt to restart a conversation we had a few years ago. No need to talk about it here.
Sorry LT.
I think so, especially as you should get great odds at the end of Oct.
They have the easiest schedule in the NHL vis a vis playing when rested/tired vs playing rested/tired teams.
I think their record after Oct will be top 10 league from Nov 1st on (barring important injury) and that should make the playoffs.
Lowetide,
Deleted most of my posts on this.
Left the ones that stand on their own without inciting anything.
I think.
What the heck??
This is really, really good.
Lowetide,
Growing up in SK, we learned about geography, farming and calving. That’s it.
Did you also have both kinds of music?
Country and Western?
I disagree completely and I explained in part why in my post that you responded to (and, frankly, disregarded). Rattie has terrible metrics (even with McDavid and w/o Nuge) and Maroon has positive metrics without McDavid.
Maroon is serviceable in all zones, very good on the boards, a great teamate, etc.
Rattie is a tirefire defensively and was even a draft on McDavid’s positive possession (without Nuge).
Yes, Rattie was a better scorer pre-draft – that was so long ago, its meaningless now – see Yakuopv out of the league.
Rattie doesn’t have to “just score” – if he leads to a negative goal differential with McDavid (which he did when Nuge was not with them), that is an egregious result.
Patty Maroon isn’t the be all and end all but I’m not sure how a player that has not shown to be able to play in the NHL with anyone other than McDavid (and that’s debatable in itself) is comparable.
I plagiarized Wordsworth there.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RdR6MN2jKYs
Too easy. Couldn’t help myself
“Farming” is no longer acceptable terminology. The proper terminology is “settler agriculture”! -)
I know. It’s just really swell coming after all that.
And down south we just assumed all your social studies education was centered around how to apologize to one another
And Geography has changed completely since then. 😉 Although the Saskatchewan curriculum for high school Geography is still from 1969. 🙁
As long as Yugoslavia is still a functional socialist country, I’ll continue to visit.
Wilde,
You seem like a fine person, Wilde.
I read that differently. It was lovely.
“For this, for everything, we are out of tune…”
Yes just look at the monster in waiting that was our final 2014-15 defense* before Chia took over:
Andrew Ference – Mark Fayne
Oscar Klefbom – Justin Schultz
Nikita Nikitin – Keith Aulie
Martin Marincin
*guys on the roster at year’s end who played at least 30 games.
I think you are just pissing in the wind. Decisions on Peter Chiarelli were made at his first draft and when badly after that. Those subsequent opinions are set in stone. The decisions on Todd McLellan took somewhat longer, but are the same, also set in stone. The past is only remembered if it can be blamed on one of them
That you for reminding me how bad it truly was.
This is true of many sports. I would agree that most fans miss it as the media seems to key on goals and fancy plays…sometimes goaltending, so that’s what the fans get fed.
However if you talk to a veteran coach, even at a level as young as 9 year olds, the first part of his line up he fills out is defense and goalie. Without quality there, it doesn’t matter what fancy stuff the forwards manage. The team will be dead in the water.
A good example is our 2006 Stanley run. The forward group was rather pedestrian by NHL standards at the time, but the Defense was quality and deep. That’s what carries the day but never gets the love it deserves.
It’s too bad the Oilers management seemed to let this lapse for so long.
The Dcorps was the biggest problem when he took over.
It was the biggest problem under MacT and the end of Tambellini’s tenure as well.
He just needed to add Actual NHL Dmen while not trading away a Hart trophy winner.
You’ll notice that WSH added Niskanen and Orpik via free agency and not trade.
EDM could have added Demers (who was the best RHD on the market that summer), shored up some other spots and continue to improve the Dcorps as the opportunities arose.
Peter signed Benning that summer as well.
It would have been a good start with 2 lines driven by players who could get +50% GF with a poor Dcorps, so you assume it would have been better in front of a competent Dcorps.
Apropos of exactly nothing on this thread, I want to go on record as saying the all orange jersey socks outfit is pure crap.
It’s garish, gaudy and silly looking. There, I’ve said it! I’d much prefer dark with orange accents. Far more fierce.
In orange the team looks and I think plays like clowns!
Carry on.
I like the darker reddish-orange, too. Like two seasons ago and the 1970s Oilers (not that I was around to enjoy either the ’70s’ red-orange or the ’80s’ blue).
Woodguy v2.0,
You said the “GM took over a roster that could have been dominant by now”. That is simply not a true statement no matter how you qualify it.
A little 10 yr old theory math.
In the average 30 shot game:
With avg HD sh save%. .8250
With avg LD sh save% .9650
The worst HD pair 14.5 HD
14.5 x .825 = 11.9625 sv = 2.5375 ga
15.5 x .965 = 14.9575sv = .5425 ga
26.92 sv/30 = .897 sv% = 3.08 ga
Avg HD PDF 10.5 HD
10.5 HD = 8.6625 sv = 1.8375 ga
19.5 LD = 18.8175 sv = .6825 ga
27.48 sv/30 = .916 sv% = 2.52 ga
This is avg Sh Density for 30 Shot gm.
Best HD d pr 7.00 HD
7.0 HD = 5.775 sv = 1.225 ga
23 LD = 22.195 sv = .805 ga
27.97sv/30 = .932 sv% = 2.03 ga
A little density secret you guys never figured out.
I kept feeding you!
Avg gm density is 30 shots/.916/2.52
3.02ga/(1-.908) = 32.82 Density.
3730 min/60 = 62.1667gm
2036sh/62.1667gm = 32.75 sh/gm
Relative terms
.916 x (32.82/32.75) = .918 sv%
Our defence by average.
.908 – .918 = -.010
Our defence was brutal last year.
He WG:
What is the players actual goal diff.
Real data.+/- Goal dif.
So we make the playoffs defending the area.
We’re shot success is 5 times greater than the the area
we choose to defend a year later.
Missing the playoffs.
People advocate having our D skate up abandon defending the area that got us in the playoffs.
So tha we can keep it out of the hands of the forwards who are 4 times better at generating even offence.
Not running a 3 – 2 structure so we can drop to a NZ trap on the counter.
A NZ trap That reduces zone entry and the CA our Dmen/goalies are subjected to.
Cup winning thinking!
Brought yo you by 80,s thinking oilers fans.
When goalie median save % .876 – .881
You could score from distance.
The HD/ld ratio was much lower.
This is not the 80,s.
From an oilers fan from 1994 on
For The Athletic
Some lingering questions about the Oilers 2018 draft and evaluating goalies
https://theathletic.com/440385/2018/07/21/some-lingering-questions-about-the-oilers-2018-draft-and-evaluating-goalies/