Coaching Crossroads?

by Lowetide

Connor McDavid is the most popular Oilers player and personality, but after that Todd McLellan would rank high among the collective personalities who are members of the team. His matter of fact style, casual delivery and natural ability to communicate allow him to interact with Oilers nation with ease. But you have to win. Will this be his final season with the team?

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

TODD MCLELLAN

  • 2015-16: 31-43-8, 70 pts (199-242) (GD: -43)
  • 2016-1747-26-9, 103 pts (243-207) (GD: +36)
  • 2017-18: 36-40-6, 78 pts (229-262) (GD: -33)
  1. What was the best thing about the Oilers season? Connor McDavid. Copy and paste that answer for the next decade or more.
  2. What was the most devastating thing? O man. So many. Power-play goals fell from 56 to 31, penalty killing goals against rose from 43 to 57. Special teams play (including shorthanded goals for and against) went from +12 to -20. That’s a 32 goal trip into the elevator shaft.
  3. What about 5-on-5? In 2016-17, the Oilers scored 166 goals (No. 8 overall), gave up 140 (No. 9 overall). In 2017-18, the 5-on-5 offense mostly held. Edmonton had 163 goals for (No. 11 overall) but allowed a massive 176 goals against (No. 25), for a -13 overall. All numbers via Natural Stat Trick and Hockey-Reference.
  4. Goaltending? Yes for sure, Talbot didn’t look right and part of that might have been a couple of early pulls. Edmonton allowed 737 high-danger scoring chances in 2016-17, 816 this past season.
  5. Was Talbot all bad? Situations explain a lot. Talbot was .927 in even-strength save percentage in 2016-17 (tied for No. 12) but fell to .915 (No. 28) this past season. This is among goalies with 30 or more games.
  6. So that was the problem? EV GA? Well, part of it. If Talbot had matched his even-strength save percentage from a year ago, 20 fewer goals would have been allowed (1725 x .927 =126, Talbot allowed 146).
  7. And? When Edmonton had a man disadvantage, Talbot was .877 (No. 17) in 2016-17, .848 (No. 33) in 2017-18. If he had managed the same total as last year, Edmonton would have allowed eight fewer goals.
  8. Where did the rest of the GA happen? In 661 total minutes in 2016-17, the backup goalies allowed 28 goals. This past season, in 1209 minutes, backups allowed 63.
  9. So, goaltending, and special teams? Yes, and injuries. Plus the lines after McDavid.
  10. Oh, is that all? Hehe. Yes. Quite the laundry list.
  11. What is the plan to fix it? A few things. Todd McLellan has a new and impressive coaching staff, that should help the special teams and hopefully defensive structure.
  12. And? The McDavid line will have Nuge and Ty Rattie, meaning the second line gets a more talented offensive pivot in Leon Draisaitl.
  13. Who are Leon’s wingers? Who are Leon’s wingers?
  14. Did the gap the gap between McDavid on and off ice 5×5 improve? According to Natural Stat Trick, in 2017-18 Edmonton at 5-on-5 was 77-47 with McDavid on the ice, 89-93 without. This past season, Edmonton at 5-on-5 was 81-61 with McDavid on the ice, 82-115 without.
  15. Shiza. Yes. The Oilers were +30 with 97 in 2016-17, +20 with him in 2017-18. Without him, the team was -4 in 2016-17, -33 without.
  16. Give up! Well, I think Edmonton missing the playoffs this season is possible, if that’s what you mean.
  17. Everything would have to break in a good way? Something like that. Edmonton did the right thing this summer, keeping the important pieces, now the organization has to add to the McDavid cluster.
  18. What is your McDavid cluster? McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson, Nuge.
  19. Who might be added with a strong winter? Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Bouchard, Matt Benning, Jujhar Khaira. Maybe Ryan Strome. The later group here (Yamamoto, Bouchard) may end up being an echo cluster behind McDavid, but they need to arrive in a quick hurry.
  20. Is he good with rookies? I would say he is typical of veteran coaches. By that I mean a young player has to be patient because opportunities are rare and veterans are preferred. There is a thread of “earning it” another veteran coaching tactic. He does value skill though, Kailer Yamamoto making the NHL team is a reflection of it.
  21. What kind of rookies develop under McLellan? I’ve looked at this going back to his San Jose days, and McLellan jumps on the fully formed rookies (McDavid, Benning) but all others are vulnerable to the bench, pressbox or minors. I would say that is typical of a veteran coach.
  22. What about the 1994’s? That group (Matt Benning, Anton Slepyshev, Jujhar Khaira, Drake Caggiula) delivered a mixed bag of results. Anton Slepyshev should have spent a couple of weeks rehabbing in Bakersfield instead of one game, he never caught up because of it. Drake Caggiula scored 13 goals but his WOWY’s are universally destructive to his teammates. Jujhar Khaira had a solid year but you want to see it again. I am confident Matt Benning is going to be a productive NHL player if he’s healthy. He’s a win.
  23. What will the lines look like? McLellan’s lines opening night a year ago (Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl; Lucic—RNH—Yamamoto; Jokinen—Strome—Caggiula; Khaira—Letestu—Kassian) were logical based on the available talent. I would have had Jesse Puljujarvi instead or Yamamoto but after that, once the decision was made to move Leon to No. 1 RW, the die was cast.
  24. What will the lines look like? My guess is NugeMcDavid—Rattie; Lucic—Draisaitl—Rieder; Caggiula—Strome—Puljujarvi; Khaira—Brodziak—Kassian. 
  25. When will Yamamoto get the call? My guess is 30 games into the season.
  26. Can the Oilers make the playoffs? Never bet against a Connor McDavid team.
  27. What would be the best case scenario? Oilers have good health, a rebound from Talbot and both Puljujarvi and Yamamoto emerge as bona fide NHL scorers.
  28. Is that all! Yeah, Edmonton needs several miles of good stories. The one thing that I believe to be true: There are three quality youngsters (JP, KY, Bouchard) who can have a positive impact and hang around for years. Only question is ETA.
  29. Will McLellan survive? Yes, I think so. If he didn’t get fired this spring, it won’t happen. He is a veteran NHL coach, popular with the fans and owns a large contract with some term left.
  30. Is there a danger for him? The first 10 games are going to be a sweatbox.
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rickithebear

So we make the playoffs defending the area.
We’re shot success is 5 times greater than the the area
we choose to defend a year later.
Missing the playoffs.

People advocate having our D skate up abandon defending the area that got us in the playoffs.
So tha we can keep it out of the hands of the forwards who are 4 times better at generating even offence.

Not running a 3 – 2 structure so we can drop to a NZ trap on the counter.
A NZ trap That reduces zone entry and the CA our Dmen/goalies are subjected to.

Cup winning thinking!
Brought yo you by 80,s thinking oilers fans.
When goalie median save % .876 – .881
You could score from distance.
The HD/ld ratio was much lower.

This is not the 80,s.

From an oilers fan from 1994 on

rickithebear

He WG:

What is the players actual goal diff.
Real data.+/- Goal dif.

rickithebear

A little 10 yr old theory math.

In the average 30 shot game:
With avg HD sh save%. .8250
With avg LD sh save% .9650

The worst HD pair 14.5 HD
14.5 x .825 = 11.9625 sv = 2.5375 ga
15.5 x .965 = 14.9575sv = .5425 ga
26.92 sv/30 = .897 sv% = 3.08 ga

Avg HD PDF 10.5 HD
10.5 HD = 8.6625 sv = 1.8375 ga
19.5 LD = 18.8175 sv = .6825 ga
27.48 sv/30 = .916 sv% = 2.52 ga
This is avg Sh Density for 30 Shot gm.

Best HD d pr 7.00 HD
7.0 HD = 5.775 sv = 1.225 ga
23 LD = 22.195 sv = .805 ga
27.97sv/30 = .932 sv% = 2.03 ga

A little density secret you guys never figured out.
I kept feeding you!
Avg gm density is 30 shots/.916/2.52

3.02ga/(1-.908) = 32.82 Density.
3730 min/60 = 62.1667gm
2036sh/62.1667gm = 32.75 sh/gm

Relative terms
.916 x (32.82/32.75) = .918 sv%

Our defence by average.
.908 – .918 = -.010
Our defence was brutal last year.

Paddy Morans Jockstrap

Woodguy v2.0,

You said the “GM took over a roster that could have been dominant by now”. That is simply not a true statement no matter how you qualify it.

Professor Q

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour:
Apropos of exactly nothing on this thread, I want to go on record as saying the all orange jersey socks outfit is pure crap.

It’s garish, gaudy and silly looking. There, I’ve said it! I’d much prefer dark with orange accents. Far more fierce.

In orange the team looks and I think plays like clowns!

Carry on.

I like the darker reddish-orange, too. Like two seasons ago and the 1970s Oilers (not that I was around to enjoy either the ’70s’ red-orange or the ’80s’ blue).

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

Apropos of exactly nothing on this thread, I want to go on record as saying the all orange jersey socks outfit is pure crap.

It’s garish, gaudy and silly looking. There, I’ve said it! I’d much prefer dark with orange accents. Far more fierce.

In orange the team looks and I think plays like clowns!

Carry on.

Woodguy v2.0

Paddy Morans Jockstrap: Yes just look at the monster in waiting that was our final 2014-15 defense* before Chia took over:

Andrew Ference–Mark Fayne
Oscar Klefbom–Justin Schultz
Nikita Nikitin–Keith Aulie
Martin Marincin

*guys on the roster at year’s end who played at least 30 games.

The Dcorps was the biggest problem when he took over.

It was the biggest problem under MacT and the end of Tambellini’s tenure as well.

He just needed to add Actual NHL Dmen while not trading away a Hart trophy winner.

You’ll notice that WSH added Niskanen and Orpik via free agency and not trade.

EDM could have added Demers (who was the best RHD on the market that summer), shored up some other spots and continue to improve the Dcorps as the opportunities arose.

Peter signed Benning that summer as well.

It would have been a good start with 2 lines driven by players who could get +50% GF with a poor Dcorps, so you assume it would have been better in front of a competent Dcorps.

ashley

Woodguy v2.0:

Having a Dcorps where your top 4 are Actual NHL Dcorps and not playing above their Actual NHL ability is soooooooooooo goddamn important and most people miss it.

I see this situation over and over in the NHL and Dcorps quality and depth means more than anything when projecting where a team finishes.(assuming health)

If they can’t do that, it doesn’t matter how good the forwards are.

This is true of many sports. I would agree that most fans miss it as the media seems to key on goals and fancy plays…sometimes goaltending, so that’s what the fans get fed.

However if you talk to a veteran coach, even at a level as young as 9 year olds, the first part of his line up he fills out is defense and goalie. Without quality there, it doesn’t matter what fancy stuff the forwards manage. The team will be dead in the water.

A good example is our 2006 Stanley run. The forward group was rather pedestrian by NHL standards at the time, but the Defense was quality and deep. That’s what carries the day but never gets the love it deserves.

It’s too bad the Oilers management seemed to let this lapse for so long.

Richard S.S.

Paddy Morans Jockstrap: Yes just look at the monster in waiting that was our final 2014-15 defense* before Chia took over:

Andrew Ference–Mark Fayne
Oscar Klefbom–Justin Schultz
Nikita Nikitin–Keith Aulie
Martin Marincin

*guys on the roster at year’s end who played at least 30 games.

I think you are just pissing in the wind. Decisions on Peter Chiarelli were made at his first draft and when badly after that. Those subsequent opinions are set in stone. The decisions on Todd McLellan took somewhat longer, but are the same, also set in stone. The past is only remembered if it can be blamed on one of them

That you for reminding me how bad it truly was.

Paddy Morans Jockstrap

Woodguy v2.0:
Kinger_Oil.redux,

– and yet the coach and GM should have been fired a long time ago…

Because the GM took over a roster that could have been dominant by now.

Yes just look at the monster in waiting that was our final 2014-15 defense* before Chia took over:

Andrew Ference – Mark Fayne
Oscar Klefbom – Justin Schultz
Nikita Nikitin – Keith Aulie
Martin Marincin

*guys on the roster at year’s end who played at least 30 games.

Georges

Wilde,

You seem like a fine person, Wilde.

I read that differently. It was lovely.

“For this, for everything, we are out of tune…”

BONE207

Psyche: And Geography has changed completely since then. Although the Saskatchewan curriculum for high school Geography is still from 1969.

As long as Yugoslavia is still a functional socialist country, I’ll continue to visit.

Psyche

godot10: “Farming” is no longer acceptable terminology.The proper terminology is “settler agriculture”! -)

And Geography has changed completely since then. 😉 Although the Saskatchewan curriculum for high school Geography is still from 1969. 🙁

leadfarmer

And down south we just assumed all your social studies education was centered around how to apologize to one another

Georges

Woodguy v2.0: I plagiarized Wordsworth there.

I know. It’s just really swell coming after all that.

godot10

Lowetide:

Growing up in SK, we learned about geography, farming and calving. That’s it.

“Farming” is no longer acceptable terminology. The proper terminology is “settler agriculture”! -)

stephen sheps

Woodguy v2.0:
Lowetide,

Growing up in SK, we learned about geography, farming and calving. That’s it.

Did you also have both kinds of music?

Country and Western?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RdR6MN2jKYs

Too easy. Couldn’t help myself

Woodguy v2.0

Georges: What the heck??

This is really, really good.

I plagiarized Wordsworth there.

OriginalPouzar

I disagree completely and I explained in part why in my post that you responded to (and, frankly, disregarded). Rattie has terrible metrics (even with McDavid and w/o Nuge) and Maroon has positive metrics without McDavid.

Maroon is serviceable in all zones, very good on the boards, a great teamate, etc.

Rattie is a tirefire defensively and was even a draft on McDavid’s positive possession (without Nuge).

Yes, Rattie was a better scorer pre-draft – that was so long ago, its meaningless now – see Yakuopv out of the league.

Rattie doesn’t have to “just score” – if he leads to a negative goal differential with McDavid (which he did when Nuge was not with them), that is an egregious result.

Patty Maroon isn’t the be all and end all but I’m not sure how a player that has not shown to be able to play in the NHL with anyone other than McDavid (and that’s debatable in itself) is comparable.

Woodguy v2.0

Lowetide,

Growing up in SK, we learned about geography, farming and calving. That’s it.

Did you also have both kinds of music?

Country and Western?

Georges

Woodguy v2.0: Everyone has hated everyone forever.

Its just now that we hear from everyone.

Its awful.

The world is too much with us.

What the heck??

This is really, really good.

Woodguy v2.0

Lowetide,

Deleted most of my posts on this.

Left the ones that stand on their own without inciting anything.

I think.

Woodguy v2.0

Georges: Is betting on EDM being 5-9-2 after the first 16 AND making the playoffs also probably good business?

I think so, especially as you should get great odds at the end of Oct.

They have the easiest schedule in the NHL vis a vis playing when rested/tired vs playing rested/tired teams.

I think their record after Oct will be top 10 league from Nov 1st on (barring important injury) and that should make the playoffs.

stephen sheps

Lowetide,

Quite right. Deleted my rant. I can email the author and attempt to restart a conversation we had a few years ago. No need to talk about it here.

Sorry LT.

Woodguy v2.0

godot10: You forgot Jake Gardiner.

Good catch.

Thanks for that.

ANA revised:

2008
Gardiner 17th
J. Shultz 43rd

2009
Vatanen 106th

2010
Fowler 12th

2011
Manson 160th

2012
Lindholm 6th

2013
Theodore 26th

2014
28th Petterson (its early on him)
55th Montour

2015
27th Larsson(early on him too)

Sick.

Georges

Woodguy v2.0: Very fair sir.

In regards to DET, I bet on Dcorps–>Goalies–>Centers–>Wingers.Howard is good, but he’s getting older and has no help.

Betting on EDM being 5-9-2 after the first 16 is probably good business.

I’m just giddy from looking at Dcorps in the Pacific and WC this year and seeing EDM near the top.

Is betting on EDM being 5-9-2 after the first 16 AND making the playoffs also probably good business?

Bank Shot

jtblack: Edm had 78 Points last year, thats with Connor on a heater for the last 25 games.

They will need 17 more points.

There are metrics out there that allot points to players. IE: you add a good player X and he represents 3.3 points in the Standings.What Edm has added vs what they have lost; maybe represents +1 or +2 points.A lot of West teams got better by more than that.

So “WE” are basing our 17 points on Good Health and Better Special teams.Can happen but the betting man would say the odds are against it.

How do you explain the drop from the previous season with that method?

Eberle + Pouliot + half a season of Sekera is worth 25 points in the standings?

Kinger_Oil.redux

OriginalPouzar: Whoa, with respect, its tough for me to go past this first line.

In my opinion, Rattie isn’t anywhere near equal to Maroon.

We aren’t even sure if Rattie is an NHL player playing with anyone other than McDavid and, frankly, the goal share could have been an anomaly given the negative possession metrics (and the fact that McDavid/Rattie got absolutely caved when not with Nuge).

Rattie is a well below average defensive player and, if that is not markedly improved this year, he will not last as 1RW.

Maroon, on the other hand, is one of the few Oiler forwards over the last few years to actually have positive possession metrics (and I believe goal share metrics) when not with McDavid.

He also has a much more refined overall game and adds many other elements than scoring.

– It’s my experience that anyone who prefaces a response by saying “with respect” is code for the exact opposite.

– Today Maroon > Rattie. YOu mised my point…

– 2 years ago, Maroon was a fat give-away, who was zoomed by McD

– Today, Rattie is a AHL’er who was zoomed by McD

– It is just as reasonable to believe Rattie will score 44 points with McD as it was with Maroon 2 years ago. McD is years better, RNH is a better winger for that line than Drai IMO

– All Rattie has to do is score. He’s a better scorer historically than Maroon, pre-NHL

– The expectations for Rattie this year should not be worse than Maroon’s 2 years ago IMO

godot10

Woodguy v2.0: NSH had a great run with:

2003
Suter 7th
Weber 49th

2005
Franson 79th

2008
Josi 38th

2009
Ellis 11th
Ekholm 102nd

2013
Jones 4th

Great drafting, but remember that 3 of the 6 were drafted top 11th.

Here’s ANA:

2008
J. Shultz 43rd

2009
Vatanen 106th

2010
Fowler 12th

2011
Manson 160th

2012
Lindholm 6th

2013
Theodore 26th

2014
28th Petterson (its early on him)
55th Montour

2015
27th Larsson(early on him too)

Every bloody year they hit on a Dman outside the first or with their first or with both.

Its crazy and so far above the norm it needs to be studied.

You forgot Jake Gardiner.

Munny

BONE207:
hunter1909,

Hunter…it’s July & you’re already starting to scare me.

It’s okay. He’s always struck by a huge bout of optimism just before the season starts.

And then we play a game…

Woodguy v2.0

Munny: Nashville isn’t close?I would’ve guessed the Preds were.

NSH had a great run with:

2003
Suter 7th
Weber 49th

2005
Franson 79th

2008
Josi 38th

2009
Ellis 11th
Ekholm 102nd

2013
Jones 4th

Great drafting, but remember that 3 of the 6 were drafted top 11th.

Here’s ANA:

2008
J. Shultz 43rd

2009
Vatanen 106th

2010
Fowler 12th

2011
Manson 160th

2012
Lindholm 6th

2013
Theodore 26th

2014
28th Petterson (its early on him)
55th Montour

2015
27th Larsson (early on him too)

Every bloody year they hit on a Dman outside the first or with their first or with both.

Its crazy and so far above the norm it needs to be studied.

Wilde

godot10: And at forward they have Sam Steel and Maxime Comptois, and a next generation douchebag in Max Jones.

I’m whatever on those three. Sam Steel’s good, but not as good as his breakout year would lead you to expect because I’m pretty sure Adam Brooks was a big part of it, as evidenced by the .5 points per game drop from 16-17 to 17-18 despite being a year older.

Comtois also looks good but has the same issue with Abramov.

And with Max Jones, the offense just isn’t really there.

I’d say Lundestrom immediately became their best forward prospect by a fair amount. Not too much going on there, especially compared to the young Dmen’s peaks and perpetuity.

godot10

Wilde:

Wanna know something spooky about Anaheim’s Dcorps though?

Their latest crop is this:

Josh Mahura (2016)
Jacob Larsson (2015)
Marcus Petersson (2014)

Mahura was a Tyler Benson bet, missed his whole draft year with a knee injury. Super talented.

Ducks cashed it, he recovered. Full conversion. God damnit.

Larsson & Petersson were 1LD and 2LD in San Diego and posted +13.4 and +10.6 GF% rel.

And at forward they have Sam Steel and Maxime Comptois, and a next generation douchebag in Max Jones.

square_wheels

Wow did anyone listen to Pat Maroon on Spittin Chiclets ?

He had no offers. None.

He fired his agent and has the Blues players call him and signed the only offer on the table from Armstrong.

Why does Chia have a job as an NHL GM ?

Wilde

Munny: Nashville isn’t close?I would’ve guessed the Preds were.

Since ’08:

Gardiner
Schultz
Vatanen
Fowler
Heed
Manson
Lindholm
Theodore
Petersson
Montour
Larsson
Mahura

vs

Josi
Ellis
Ekholm
Bitetto
Jones
Fabbro
Girard

I’m going with Anaheim by a lot, especially when you take draft position into account.

Munny

Woodguy v2.0: The social studies curriculum was mostly about how awesome Communist China was for everyone there.
We even made dioramas of the terraced farms they created on the hills. (note: saw some terraced farms live when I was in China. They are something else.)

This doesn’t coincide with my memory of that curriculum. I don’t ever remember the teacher lauding Maoism. And terraced farms were around a LONG time before the Cultural Revolution (a fact which we were taught).

BONE207

hunter1909,

Hunter…it’s July & you’re already starting to scare me.

Munny

Woodguy v2.0: ANA drafts Dmen better than any team out there and its not close.

Nashville isn’t close? I would’ve guessed the Preds were.

Munny

Woodguy v2.0: I was in grade 6 in 82/83.

Peter Lougheed was Premier and the PC’s owned the Legislature.

The social studies curriculum was mostly about how awesome Communist China was for everyone there.

We even made dioramas of the terraced farms they created on the hills.(note: saw some terraced farms live when I was in China.They are something else.)

Despite that I don’t have love for the Cultural Revolution, Chairman Mao or have even ever voted NDP.

This isn’t Grade 6, it is Kindergarten to Grade 4. Kids less than half your age then. In a different world. Not to mention the same sort of curriculum changes have either come or are coming to Math, English and Science.

But please continue to think this is exactly the same as what you experienced.

The rest of us will engage in further inquiry and debate. And demanding diversity of viewpoints over ideology. Truth over some group’s notion of justice.

The fact that teachers are among the most concerned with these changes means that there’s nothing to see here.

Wilde

Woodguy v2.0: ANA drafts Dmen better than any team out there and its not close.

I wish I knew why.

Bob Murray has run their NHL Dcorps thin this year and Carlyle is even more old school than McLellan.

Rookies need not apply unless he’s forced to play them and with Sustr & Schenn he won’t be forced to unless injuries hit.

Oh I know. I hope they sign two more shitty vets for the bottom pairing and lose the young trio to cap constraints and poor value trades just like Stoner&Bieksa and Vatanen&Theodore.

I wasn’t meaning to project those guys into their rosters next year per se. The oldest one looks pencilled in but thats it.

It’s infuriating though, they’ll always be good due to it.

Unleas the mandate goes too far. The Too Many Good Players™ mandate usually only applies to top 6 / bottom 6 forwards, but Murray applied it to defencemen.

Woodguy v2.0

Wilde: Yeah there’s a lot to talk about re: Pulujarvi and Yamamoto working out and the impact that would have, but I think if Sekera goes 2016-17 level and Benning continues his trajectory the Oilers don’t need almost anything else to break right to make the playoffs.

Wanna know something spooky about Anaheim’s Dcorps though?

Their latest crop is this:

Josh Mahura (2016)
Jacob Larsson (2015)
Marcus Petersson (2014)

Mahura was a Tyler Benson bet, missed his whole draft year with a knee injury. Super talented.

Ducks cashed it, he recovered fully.

Larsson & Petersson were 1LD and 2LD in San Diego and posted +13.4 and +10.6 GF% rel.

ANA drafts Dmen better than any team out there and its not close.

I wish I knew why.

Bob Murray has run their NHL Dcorps thin this year and Carlyle is even more old school than McLellan.

Rookies need not apply unless he’s forced to play them and with Sustr & Schenn he won’t be forced to unless injuries hit.

Woodguy v2.0

All,

Here’s an example of why I look at Dcorps first (and then goalies) and try not to get enamored with forwards unless they are really high end and in front of an Actual NHL Top 4 Dcorps.

WSH 13/14
Goal Differential 225-229 (-4)
Missed the playoffs (9th in Conference)

Top 6 forwards via total TOI
Backstrom
Ovechkin
Johansson
Brower
Chimera
Ward

WSH 14/15
Goal Differential 237-199 (+38)
Finished 4th in Conference

Top 6 forwards via TOI
Backstrom
Ovechkin
Ward
Johansson
Brower
Fehr

WTF?

Fehr and Chimera were the only forwards to swap spots in the top 6. Why the difference?

WSH 13/14
Top 6 Dmen via total TOI
Carlson
Alzner
Green
Orlov
Erskine
Schmidt

WSH 14/15
Top 5 Dmen via total TOI
NIskanen
Orpik
Carlson
Alzner
Green
Schmidt

Remember that in 13/14 Carlson was 23 and led WSH in TOI.

Green has been over his head outside of 3rd pair 5v5 for his career.

Orlov was 22. Erskine was done and never played after this year.

In 14/15 Niskanen was a killer add as he was clearly the best RHD on PIT the year before and Orpik was still useful.

Having a Dcorps where your top 4 are Actual NHL Dcorps and not playing above their Actual NHL ability is soooooooooooo goddamn important and most people miss it.

I see this situation over and over in the NHL and Dcorps quality and depth means more than anything when projecting where a team finishes. (assuming health)

The Dmen have two main jobs:
1) Stop the opposition sortie
2) Get the puck back and get it to a team mate.

If they can’t do that, it doesn’t matter how good the forwards are.

This is why I’m bullish on EDM this year.

*prays for health*

Wilde

Woodguy v2.0:

I’m just giddy from looking at Dcorps in the Pacific and WC this year and seeing EDM near the top.

Yeah there’s a lot to talk about re: Pulujarvi and Yamamoto working out and the impact that would have, but I think if Sekera goes 2016-17 level and Benning continues his trajectory the Oilers don’t need almost anything else to break right to make the playoffs.

Wanna know something spooky about Anaheim’s Dcorps though?

Their latest crop is this:

Josh Mahura (2016)
Jacob Larsson (2015)
Marcus Petersson (2014)

Mahura was a Tyler Benson bet, missed his whole draft year with a knee injury. Super talented.

Ducks cashed it, he recovered. Full conversion. God damnit.

Larsson & Petersson were 1LD and 2LD in San Diego and posted +13.4 and +10.6 GF% rel.

Woodguy v2.0

Chelios is a Dinosaur:
Woodguy v2.0,

I just really don’t like that guy and this article evidences all his poor reasoning.

His shtick with both hockey and politics is built around dog whistles and identity.

I’m not even sure what he believes in regards to either of them. I think he just knows what sells copy/clicks.

I have nothing but contempt for that approach.

We all gotta eat, but have some self respect.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

Woodguy v2.0,

1.Jagr
2.Hasek
3.Hemsky

I didint mean to throw down off topic especially as I don’t contribute much on topic.

I just really don’t like that guy and this article evidences all his poor reasoning.

lenko

Bag of Pucks: A hearty +1 on this.

RE: Safety Jerseys.

Pylons are pretty stationary and quite often get run over ,LOL. Except for McD of course!

Munny

Scungilli Slushy,

The one hope is that these types of movements tend to cannibalize themselves and self-destruct. Not always as obviously there have been a few historical tragedies, and of course the ongoing horror in Venezuela. But usually. And when these movements do fold, they fold fast.

There has already been a backlash by the liberal lefties against the illiberal SJW lefties. One is the Dr. Haidt mentioned in the article, and quite a few members of his Heterodox Academy.

But I feel horrible for parents right now. What the hell do they do?

Woodguy v2.0

Wilde: Most every single one of those percentages is off, while still on the right side of 50 in my opinion. It’s just kind of a rough way of demonstrating how few games the Oilers have the better shot of winning this side of American thanksgiving.

NYR matinee I was memeing.

I like Crawford a lot, but goalies.

Detroit I’m actually pretty high on their forwards and they have a couple of Djoos candidates.

If the Oilers are fake-five-hundred coming out of the tunnel I think they make or miss by a point or two.

Very fair sir.

In regards to DET, I bet on Dcorps–>Goalies–>Centers–>Wingers. Howard is good, but he’s getting older and has no help.

Betting on EDM being 5-9-2 after the first 16 is probably good business.

I’m just giddy from looking at Dcorps in the Pacific and WC this year and seeing EDM near the top.