Connor McDavid is the most popular Oilers player and personality, but after that Todd McLellan would rank high among the collective personalities who are members of the team. His matter of fact style, casual delivery and natural ability to communicate allow him to interact with Oilers nation with ease. But you have to win. Will this be his final season with the team?
THE ATHLETIC!
Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.
- New Lowetide: Some lingering questions about the 2018 draft, and goalie evaluations.
- New Lowetide: Oilers training camp: 28 men for 23 jobs.
- New Jonathan Willis: Predicting the winners in the top 6 and top 9 forwards.
- Lowetide: A bridge league would benefit the Oilers (and others).
- Lowetide: The news is out: Youth shall be served.
- Lowetide: The merciful end of the Leftorium.
- Lowetide: Cap decisions of 2017 may continue to hamper 2019 decisions
- Lowetide: Creating the ideal No. 2 line for the 2018-19 Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Which RFA’s are the most attractive for offer sheets.
- Scott Burnside: Q&A with new Humboldt Broncos coach Nathan Oystrick.
- James Mirtle: Canada job postings.
- Lowetide: UFA’s still available who can help the 2018-19 Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Analyzing the Oilers 2018-19 depth chart (including additions)
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors could be best Oilers AHL team in ages
- Lowetide: Handicapping the race to win jobs on McDavid/Draisaitl wings
- Lowetide: Oilers grab Tobias Rieder in free agency
- Lowetide: Frugal Oilers grab Kyle Brodziak in free agency
- Jonathan Willis: How will Oilers manage rich collection of goalie prospects?
- Lowetide: Is Evan Bouchard NHL-ready?
- Lowetide: The maturation of Daryl Katz, or heading down a dangerous road?
TODD MCLELLAN
- 2015-16: 31-43-8, 70 pts (199-242) (GD: -43)
- 2016-17: 47-26-9, 103 pts (243-207) (GD: +36)
- 2017-18: 36-40-6, 78 pts (229-262) (GD: -33)
- What was the best thing about the Oilers season? Connor McDavid. Copy and paste that answer for the next decade or more.
- What was the most devastating thing? O man. So many. Power-play goals fell from 56 to 31, penalty killing goals against rose from 43 to 57. Special teams play (including shorthanded goals for and against) went from +12 to -20. That’s a 32 goal trip into the elevator shaft.
- What about 5-on-5? In 2016-17, the Oilers scored 166 goals (No. 8 overall), gave up 140 (No. 9 overall). In 2017-18, the 5-on-5 offense mostly held. Edmonton had 163 goals for (No. 11 overall) but allowed a massive 176 goals against (No. 25), for a -13 overall. All numbers via Natural Stat Trick and Hockey-Reference.
- Goaltending? Yes for sure, Talbot didn’t look right and part of that might have been a couple of early pulls. Edmonton allowed 737 high-danger scoring chances in 2016-17, 816 this past season.
- Was Talbot all bad? Situations explain a lot. Talbot was .927 in even-strength save percentage in 2016-17 (tied for No. 12) but fell to .915 (No. 28) this past season. This is among goalies with 30 or more games.
- So that was the problem? EV GA? Well, part of it. If Talbot had matched his even-strength save percentage from a year ago, 20 fewer goals would have been allowed (1725 x .927 =126, Talbot allowed 146).
- And? When Edmonton had a man disadvantage, Talbot was .877 (No. 17) in 2016-17, .848 (No. 33) in 2017-18. If he had managed the same total as last year, Edmonton would have allowed eight fewer goals.
- Where did the rest of the GA happen? In 661 total minutes in 2016-17, the backup goalies allowed 28 goals. This past season, in 1209 minutes, backups allowed 63.
- So, goaltending, and special teams? Yes, and injuries. Plus the lines after McDavid.
- Oh, is that all? Hehe. Yes. Quite the laundry list.
- What is the plan to fix it? A few things. Todd McLellan has a new and impressive coaching staff, that should help the special teams and hopefully defensive structure.
- And? The McDavid line will have Nuge and Ty Rattie, meaning the second line gets a more talented offensive pivot in Leon Draisaitl.
- Who are Leon’s wingers? Who are Leon’s wingers?
- Did the gap the gap between McDavid on and off ice 5×5 improve? According to Natural Stat Trick, in 2017-18 Edmonton at 5-on-5 was 77-47 with McDavid on the ice, 89-93 without. This past season, Edmonton at 5-on-5 was 81-61 with McDavid on the ice, 82-115 without.
- Shiza. Yes. The Oilers were +30 with 97 in 2016-17, +20 with him in 2017-18. Without him, the team was -4 in 2016-17, -33 without.
- Give up! Well, I think Edmonton missing the playoffs this season is possible, if that’s what you mean.
- Everything would have to break in a good way? Something like that. Edmonton did the right thing this summer, keeping the important pieces, now the organization has to add to the McDavid cluster.
- What is your McDavid cluster? McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson, Nuge.
- Who might be added with a strong winter? Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Bouchard, Matt Benning, Jujhar Khaira. Maybe Ryan Strome. The later group here (Yamamoto, Bouchard) may end up being an echo cluster behind McDavid, but they need to arrive in a quick hurry.
- Is he good with rookies? I would say he is typical of veteran coaches. By that I mean a young player has to be patient because opportunities are rare and veterans are preferred. There is a thread of “earning it” another veteran coaching tactic. He does value skill though, Kailer Yamamoto making the NHL team is a reflection of it.
- What kind of rookies develop under McLellan? I’ve looked at this going back to his San Jose days, and McLellan jumps on the fully formed rookies (McDavid, Benning) but all others are vulnerable to the bench, pressbox or minors. I would say that is typical of a veteran coach.
- What about the 1994’s? That group (Matt Benning, Anton Slepyshev, Jujhar Khaira, Drake Caggiula) delivered a mixed bag of results. Anton Slepyshev should have spent a couple of weeks rehabbing in Bakersfield instead of one game, he never caught up because of it. Drake Caggiula scored 13 goals but his WOWY’s are universally destructive to his teammates. Jujhar Khaira had a solid year but you want to see it again. I am confident Matt Benning is going to be a productive NHL player if he’s healthy. He’s a win.
- What will the lines look like? McLellan’s lines opening night a year ago (Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl; Lucic—RNH—Yamamoto; Jokinen—Strome—Caggiula; Khaira—Letestu—Kassian) were logical based on the available talent. I would have had Jesse Puljujarvi instead or Yamamoto but after that, once the decision was made to move Leon to No. 1 RW, the die was cast.
- What will the lines look like? My guess is Nuge—McDavid—Rattie; Lucic—Draisaitl—Rieder; Caggiula—Strome—Puljujarvi; Khaira—Brodziak—Kassian.
- When will Yamamoto get the call? My guess is 30 games into the season.
- Can the Oilers make the playoffs? Never bet against a Connor McDavid team.
- What would be the best case scenario? Oilers have good health, a rebound from Talbot and both Puljujarvi and Yamamoto emerge as bona fide NHL scorers.
- Is that all! Yeah, Edmonton needs several miles of good stories. The one thing that I believe to be true: There are three quality youngsters (JP, KY, Bouchard) who can have a positive impact and hang around for years. Only question is ETA.
- Will McLellan survive? Yes, I think so. If he didn’t get fired this spring, it won’t happen. He is a veteran NHL coach, popular with the fans and owns a large contract with some term left.
- Is there a danger for him? The first 10 games are going to be a sweatbox.
For The Athletic
Some lingering questions about the Oilers 2018 draft and evaluating goalies
https://theathletic.com/440385/2018/07/21/some-lingering-questions-about-the-oilers-2018-draft-and-evaluating-goalies/
So we make the playoffs defending the area.
We’re shot success is 5 times greater than the the area
we choose to defend a year later.
Missing the playoffs.
People advocate having our D skate up abandon defending the area that got us in the playoffs.
So tha we can keep it out of the hands of the forwards who are 4 times better at generating even offence.
Not running a 3 – 2 structure so we can drop to a NZ trap on the counter.
A NZ trap That reduces zone entry and the CA our Dmen/goalies are subjected to.
Cup winning thinking!
Brought yo you by 80,s thinking oilers fans.
When goalie median save % .876 – .881
You could score from distance.
The HD/ld ratio was much lower.
This is not the 80,s.
From an oilers fan from 1994 on
He WG:
What is the players actual goal diff.
Real data.+/- Goal dif.
A little 10 yr old theory math.
In the average 30 shot game:
With avg HD sh save%. .8250
With avg LD sh save% .9650
The worst HD pair 14.5 HD
14.5 x .825 = 11.9625 sv = 2.5375 ga
15.5 x .965 = 14.9575sv = .5425 ga
26.92 sv/30 = .897 sv% = 3.08 ga
Avg HD PDF 10.5 HD
10.5 HD = 8.6625 sv = 1.8375 ga
19.5 LD = 18.8175 sv = .6825 ga
27.48 sv/30 = .916 sv% = 2.52 ga
This is avg Sh Density for 30 Shot gm.
Best HD d pr 7.00 HD
7.0 HD = 5.775 sv = 1.225 ga
23 LD = 22.195 sv = .805 ga
27.97sv/30 = .932 sv% = 2.03 ga
A little density secret you guys never figured out.
I kept feeding you!
Avg gm density is 30 shots/.916/2.52
3.02ga/(1-.908) = 32.82 Density.
3730 min/60 = 62.1667gm
2036sh/62.1667gm = 32.75 sh/gm
Relative terms
.916 x (32.82/32.75) = .918 sv%
Our defence by average.
.908 – .918 = -.010
Our defence was brutal last year.
Woodguy v2.0,
You said the “GM took over a roster that could have been dominant by now”. That is simply not a true statement no matter how you qualify it.
I like the darker reddish-orange, too. Like two seasons ago and the 1970s Oilers (not that I was around to enjoy either the ’70s’ red-orange or the ’80s’ blue).
Apropos of exactly nothing on this thread, I want to go on record as saying the all orange jersey socks outfit is pure crap.
It’s garish, gaudy and silly looking. There, I’ve said it! I’d much prefer dark with orange accents. Far more fierce.
In orange the team looks and I think plays like clowns!
Carry on.
The Dcorps was the biggest problem when he took over.
It was the biggest problem under MacT and the end of Tambellini’s tenure as well.
He just needed to add Actual NHL Dmen while not trading away a Hart trophy winner.
You’ll notice that WSH added Niskanen and Orpik via free agency and not trade.
EDM could have added Demers (who was the best RHD on the market that summer), shored up some other spots and continue to improve the Dcorps as the opportunities arose.
Peter signed Benning that summer as well.
It would have been a good start with 2 lines driven by players who could get +50% GF with a poor Dcorps, so you assume it would have been better in front of a competent Dcorps.
This is true of many sports. I would agree that most fans miss it as the media seems to key on goals and fancy plays…sometimes goaltending, so that’s what the fans get fed.
However if you talk to a veteran coach, even at a level as young as 9 year olds, the first part of his line up he fills out is defense and goalie. Without quality there, it doesn’t matter what fancy stuff the forwards manage. The team will be dead in the water.
A good example is our 2006 Stanley run. The forward group was rather pedestrian by NHL standards at the time, but the Defense was quality and deep. That’s what carries the day but never gets the love it deserves.
It’s too bad the Oilers management seemed to let this lapse for so long.
I think you are just pissing in the wind. Decisions on Peter Chiarelli were made at his first draft and when badly after that. Those subsequent opinions are set in stone. The decisions on Todd McLellan took somewhat longer, but are the same, also set in stone. The past is only remembered if it can be blamed on one of them
That you for reminding me how bad it truly was.
Yes just look at the monster in waiting that was our final 2014-15 defense* before Chia took over:
Andrew Ference – Mark Fayne
Oscar Klefbom – Justin Schultz
Nikita Nikitin – Keith Aulie
Martin Marincin
*guys on the roster at year’s end who played at least 30 games.
As long as Yugoslavia is still a functional socialist country, I’ll continue to visit.
And Geography has changed completely since then. 😉 Although the Saskatchewan curriculum for high school Geography is still from 1969. 🙁
And down south we just assumed all your social studies education was centered around how to apologize to one another
“Farming” is no longer acceptable terminology. The proper terminology is “settler agriculture”! -)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RdR6MN2jKYs
Too easy. Couldn’t help myself
I plagiarized Wordsworth there.
I disagree completely and I explained in part why in my post that you responded to (and, frankly, disregarded). Rattie has terrible metrics (even with McDavid and w/o Nuge) and Maroon has positive metrics without McDavid.
Maroon is serviceable in all zones, very good on the boards, a great teamate, etc.
Rattie is a tirefire defensively and was even a draft on McDavid’s positive possession (without Nuge).
Yes, Rattie was a better scorer pre-draft – that was so long ago, its meaningless now – see Yakuopv out of the league.
Rattie doesn’t have to “just score” – if he leads to a negative goal differential with McDavid (which he did when Nuge was not with them), that is an egregious result.
Patty Maroon isn’t the be all and end all but I’m not sure how a player that has not shown to be able to play in the NHL with anyone other than McDavid (and that’s debatable in itself) is comparable.
Lowetide,
Growing up in SK, we learned about geography, farming and calving. That’s it.
Did you also have both kinds of music?
Country and Western?
Lowetide,
Deleted most of my posts on this.
Left the ones that stand on their own without inciting anything.
I think.
I think so, especially as you should get great odds at the end of Oct.
They have the easiest schedule in the NHL vis a vis playing when rested/tired vs playing rested/tired teams.
I think their record after Oct will be top 10 league from Nov 1st on (barring important injury) and that should make the playoffs.
Lowetide,
Quite right. Deleted my rant. I can email the author and attempt to restart a conversation we had a few years ago. No need to talk about it here.
Sorry LT.
Good catch.
Thanks for that.
ANA revised:
2008
Gardiner 17th
J. Shultz 43rd
2009
Vatanen 106th
2010
Fowler 12th
2011
Manson 160th
2012
Lindholm 6th
2013
Theodore 26th
2014
28th Petterson (its early on him)
55th Montour
2015
27th Larsson(early on him too)
Sick.
Okay, since I wasn’t around for all of this and (from what I can see) people refrained from being too ridiculous, I will let it stand. That said, I would ask for the conversation to cease at this point re: Alberta education. The EJ gives people to opportunity to comment on their articles, perhaps that is a more fitting forum.
Growing up in SK, we learned about geography, farming and calving. That’s it.
How do you explain the drop from the previous season with that method?
Eberle + Pouliot + half a season of Sekera is worth 25 points in the standings?
– It’s my experience that anyone who prefaces a response by saying “with respect” is code for the exact opposite.
– Today Maroon > Rattie. YOu mised my point…
– 2 years ago, Maroon was a fat give-away, who was zoomed by McD
– Today, Rattie is a AHL’er who was zoomed by McD
– It is just as reasonable to believe Rattie will score 44 points with McD as it was with Maroon 2 years ago. McD is years better, RNH is a better winger for that line than Drai IMO
– All Rattie has to do is score. He’s a better scorer historically than Maroon, pre-NHL
– The expectations for Rattie this year should not be worse than Maroon’s 2 years ago IMO
You forgot Jake Gardiner.
It’s okay. He’s always struck by a huge bout of optimism just before the season starts.
And then we play a game…
NSH had a great run with:
2003
Suter 7th
Weber 49th
2005
Franson 79th
2008
Josi 38th
2009
Ellis 11th
Ekholm 102nd
2013
Jones 4th
Great drafting, but remember that 3 of the 6 were drafted top 11th.
Here’s ANA:
2008
J. Shultz 43rd
2009
Vatanen 106th
2010
Fowler 12th
2011
Manson 160th
2012
Lindholm 6th
2013
Theodore 26th
2014
28th Petterson (its early on him)
55th Montour
2015
27th Larsson (early on him too)
Every bloody year they hit on a Dman outside the first or with their first or with both.
Its crazy and so far above the norm it needs to be studied.
I’m whatever on those three. Sam Steel’s good, but not as good as his breakout year would lead you to expect because I’m pretty sure Adam Brooks was a big part of it, as evidenced by the .5 points per game drop from 16-17 to 17-18 despite being a year older.
Comtois also looks good but has the same issue with Abramov.
And with Max Jones, the offense just isn’t really there.
I’d say Lundestrom immediately became their best forward prospect by a fair amount. Not too much going on there, especially compared to the young Dmen’s peaks and perpetuity.
And at forward they have Sam Steel and Maxime Comptois, and a next generation douchebag in Max Jones.
Wow did anyone listen to Pat Maroon on Spittin Chiclets ?
He had no offers. None.
He fired his agent and has the Blues players call him and signed the only offer on the table from Armstrong.
Why does Chia have a job as an NHL GM ?
Since ’08:
Gardiner
Schultz
Vatanen
Fowler
Heed
Manson
Lindholm
Theodore
Petersson
Montour
Larsson
Mahura
vs
Josi
Ellis
Ekholm
Bitetto
Jones
Fabbro
Girard
I’m going with Anaheim by a lot, especially when you take draft position into account.
This doesn’t coincide with my memory of that curriculum. I don’t ever remember the teacher lauding Maoism. And terraced farms were around a LONG time before the Cultural Revolution (a fact which we were taught).
hunter1909,
Hunter…it’s July & you’re already starting to scare me.
Nashville isn’t close? I would’ve guessed the Preds were.
This isn’t Grade 6, it is Kindergarten to Grade 4. Kids less than half your age then. In a different world. Not to mention the same sort of curriculum changes have either come or are coming to Math, English and Science.
But please continue to think this is exactly the same as what you experienced.
The rest of us will engage in further inquiry and debate. And demanding diversity of viewpoints over ideology. Truth over some group’s notion of justice.
The fact that teachers are among the most concerned with these changes means that there’s nothing to see here.
Oh I know. I hope they sign two more shitty vets for the bottom pairing and lose the young trio to cap constraints and poor value trades just like Stoner&Bieksa and Vatanen&Theodore.
I wasn’t meaning to project those guys into their rosters next year per se. The oldest one looks pencilled in but thats it.
It’s infuriating though, they’ll always be good due to it.
Unleas the mandate goes too far. The Too Many Good Players™ mandate usually only applies to top 6 / bottom 6 forwards, but Murray applied it to defencemen.
ANA drafts Dmen better than any team out there and its not close.
I wish I knew why.
Bob Murray has run their NHL Dcorps thin this year and Carlyle is even more old school than McLellan.
Rookies need not apply unless he’s forced to play them and with Sustr & Schenn he won’t be forced to unless injuries hit.
All,
Here’s an example of why I look at Dcorps first (and then goalies) and try not to get enamored with forwards unless they are really high end and in front of an Actual NHL Top 4 Dcorps.
WSH 13/14
Goal Differential 225-229 (-4)
Missed the playoffs (9th in Conference)
Top 6 forwards via total TOI
Backstrom
Ovechkin
Johansson
Brower
Chimera
Ward
WSH 14/15
Goal Differential 237-199 (+38)
Finished 4th in Conference
Top 6 forwards via TOI
Backstrom
Ovechkin
Ward
Johansson
Brower
Fehr
WTF?
Fehr and Chimera were the only forwards to swap spots in the top 6. Why the difference?
WSH 13/14
Top 6 Dmen via total TOI
Carlson
Alzner
Green
Orlov
Erskine
Schmidt
WSH 14/15
Top 5 Dmen via total TOI
NIskanen
Orpik
Carlson
Alzner
Green
Schmidt
Remember that in 13/14 Carlson was 23 and led WSH in TOI.
Green has been over his head outside of 3rd pair 5v5 for his career.
Orlov was 22. Erskine was done and never played after this year.
In 14/15 Niskanen was a killer add as he was clearly the best RHD on PIT the year before and Orpik was still useful.
Having a Dcorps where your top 4 are Actual NHL Dcorps and not playing above their Actual NHL ability is soooooooooooo goddamn important and most people miss it.
I see this situation over and over in the NHL and Dcorps quality and depth means more than anything when projecting where a team finishes. (assuming health)
The Dmen have two main jobs:
1) Stop the opposition sortie
2) Get the puck back and get it to a team mate.
If they can’t do that, it doesn’t matter how good the forwards are.
This is why I’m bullish on EDM this year.
*prays for health*
Yeah there’s a lot to talk about re: Pulujarvi and Yamamoto working out and the impact that would have, but I think if Sekera goes 2016-17 level and Benning continues his trajectory the Oilers don’t need almost anything else to break right to make the playoffs.
…
Wanna know something spooky about Anaheim’s Dcorps though?
Their latest crop is this:
Josh Mahura (2016)
Jacob Larsson (2015)
Marcus Petersson (2014)
Mahura was a Tyler Benson bet, missed his whole draft year with a knee injury. Super talented.
Ducks cashed it, he recovered. Full conversion. God damnit.
Larsson & Petersson were 1LD and 2LD in San Diego and posted +13.4 and +10.6 GF% rel.
His shtick with both hockey and politics is built around dog whistles and identity.
I’m not even sure what he believes in regards to either of them. I think he just knows what sells copy/clicks.
I have nothing but contempt for that approach.
We all gotta eat, but have some self respect.
Woodguy v2.0,
1.Jagr
2.Hasek
3.Hemsky
I didint mean to throw down off topic especially as I don’t contribute much on topic.
I just really don’t like that guy and this article evidences all his poor reasoning.
Pylons are pretty stationary and quite often get run over ,LOL. Except for McD of course!
Scungilli Slushy,
The one hope is that these types of movements tend to cannibalize themselves and self-destruct. Not always as obviously there have been a few historical tragedies, and of course the ongoing horror in Venezuela. But usually. And when these movements do fold, they fold fast.
There has already been a backlash by the liberal lefties against the illiberal SJW lefties. One is the Dr. Haidt mentioned in the article, and quite a few members of his Heterodox Academy.
But I feel horrible for parents right now. What the hell do they do?
Very fair sir.
In regards to DET, I bet on Dcorps–>Goalies–>Centers–>Wingers. Howard is good, but he’s getting older and has no help.
Betting on EDM being 5-9-2 after the first 16 is probably good business.
I’m just giddy from looking at Dcorps in the Pacific and WC this year and seeing EDM near the top.
I’ve avoided this as I try to not add self inflicted aggravation for no reason, but lemme guess:
-He used a few quotes way out of context
-Built his argument upon a half dozen straw men piled one atop the other
-Was disingenuous throughout the entire exercise
Am I close?
Peter Chiarelli will find a sniper for 97 before David Staples finds his apolitical geographer. It doesn’t exist.
Same novice approach was evidenced in his “analysis” of the ice district, yet taken as a studious and serious urban commentator.
As a third generation prairie boy to grandparents who marched in orange day parades, and learned nothing of it in school, I hope the new generation understands their history as settlers and grows into maturity faster than my education allowed…
Nothing to do with being PC.
I hope David Staples sticks to his night job.
Not really.
Think of it this in terms of goal differential. (all data from offsidereview.com)
Overall Goal Diff
16/17 243-207 (+36)
17/18 227-260 (-33)
That a drop of 69 goals (not nice)
5v5 Goal Diff
16/17 166-140 (+26)
17/18 163-174 (-11)
-37 goal swing year over year
Basically all of the dive in 5v5 GF% is due to goals against.
A healthy Dcrops with 4 Actual NHL Top 4 Dmen and two 5/6 Dmen will drive that GA down a ton this year (ceteris barabis)
5v4 Goal Diff
16/17 51-5 (+46)
17/18 29-5 (+24)
-22 goal swing year over year
I have no idea how a 5v4 with 97 can suck the hind banana, but it did. (moving 29 out of the middle was the start of the madness imo)
Vivreios had the best PP in the WHL last year and was top 5 the year before all based on player movement to create lanes. The static PP is gone. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
4v5 Goal Diff
16/17 4-38 (-34)
17/18 10-56 (-46)
-12 goal swing
note: the other two goals are in 5v3, 3v4, 6v5 and 5v6
So, when you assume Dmen health, decent coaching and goalie equilibrium its pretty easy to find 60 of those goals that they lost last year.
Also,
I remember running the numbers for EDM in terms of goal diff from 15/16 to my projection for 16/17 and I kept coming up with +22 or so.
EDM had a goal diff of -43 in 15/16 and here I was finding a +22 for 16/17. A difference of 65 goals is pretty rare year over year so I backed it off strictly due to convention and ignored my projections.
They finished +36 so the actual goal diff year over year was +79, and here I was worried that +61 was too much.
I can find +60 goals 18/19 over 17/18 no problem.
Let us all pray that The Good Gord is willing and the creek don’t rise.
The premise is pretty straightforward – a player is generally more developed and established after their draft plus 4 year than after their draft plus 3 and will warrant a higher AAV on their 2nd contract.
Taylor Hall comes to mind – he had 80 points in 75 games in his draft plus 4 year – if his first year slid and his second contract was signed after that season, he would have come in much higher than $6M I would think.
I’m going to guess that Puljujarvi will be re-signed for less this off-season than if his contract expired after the 2019/20 season – that’s just speculation though. Having Jesse on the NHL roster for 40 games, that was the mistake.