Green Acres

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers employed the same scouting director from 1979 through 2000, but have been shuffling the deck often this century. Kevin Prendergast presided 2001 through 2007, Stu MacGregor 2008-2014 and Green’s first draft was 2015. For Green, first-round success is assumed if the team is drafting inside the top 10, so the measure of his success may rely on Kailer Yamamoto’s future and the picks in rounds two through seven.

  • Barry Fraser’s first pick: Kevin Lowe
  • Kevin Prendergast’s first pick: Ales Hemsky
  • Stu MacGregor’s first pick: Jordan Eberle
  • Bob Green’s first pick: Connor McDavid

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

BOB GREEN DRAFT LIST

2015

  • Round 1, No. 1 overall: C Connor McDavid (209 NHL games)
  • Round 4, No. 117 overall: LD Caleb Jones.
  • Round 5, No. 124 overall: RD Ethan Bear. (18 NHL games)
  • Round 6, No. 154 overall: RD John Marino.
  • Round 7, No. 208 overall: G Miroslav Svoboda.
  • Round 7, No. 209 overall: LD Ziyat Paigin.

2016

  • Round 1, No. 4 overall: R Jesse Puljujarvi (93 NHL games)
  • Round 2, No. 32 overall: L Tyler Benson.
  • Round 3, No. 63 overall: LD Markus Niemelainen.
  • Round 3, No. 84 overall: LD Matthew Cairns.
  • Round 4, No. 91 overall: RD Filip Berglund.
  • Round 5, No. 123 overall: G Dylan Wells.
  • Round 5, No. 149 overall: L Graham McPhee.
  • Round 6, No. 153 overall: RC Aapeli Rasanen.
  • Round 7, No. 183 overall: RD Vincent DeSharnais.

2017

  • Round 1, No. 22 overall: R Kailer Yamamoto (9 NHL games).
  • Round 3, No. 78 overall: G Stuart Skinner.
  • Round 3, No. 84 overall: LD Dmitri Samorukov.
  • Round 4, No. 115 overall: L Ostap Safin.
  • Round 5, No. 146 overall: R Kirill Maksimov.
  • Round 6, No. 177 overall: LC Skyler Brind’Amour.
  • Round 7, No. 208 overall: RD Phillip Kemp.

2018

  • Round 1, No. 10 overall: RD Evan Bouchard.
  • Round 2, No. 40 overall: LC Ryan McLeod.
  • Round 2, No. 62 overall: G Olivier Rodrigue.
  • Round 6, No. 164 overall: RD Michael Kesselring.
  • Round 7, No. 195 overall: L Patrick Siikanen.

BOB GREEN’S PICKS

  • First round picks are McDavid, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto and Bouchard. Terrific talents, they should push this organization to championship levels.
  • Picks outside the first round that are trending well include Stuart Skinner, Ethan Bear, Filip Berglund, Kirill Maksimov and Ryan McLeod.

GREEN QUESTIONS

  1. Where is Green spending the gold? Skill skill skill. His initial first-round picks were forwards, defender Evan Bouchard (this year’s model) counts skill as his main attribute. Oilers haven’t drafted a defenseman like Bouchard in most of your lifetimes. It’s going to be an adjustment tracking this player no matter where he lands. The boxcars will blow our collective minds.
  2. Anything unusual about the first rounders? The Yamamoto pick is unusual for the Oilers, he’s a small winger, very small.
  3. What about later picks? Heavy on defense and goaltending. Of the 20 picks in Rounds 3-7, 14 were either defenders or goaltenders.
  4. Building up the middle? It’s clear that’s the plan, lots of centermen too.
  5. How many will turn pro this fall? Several. Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson, Dylan Wells, maybe Stuart Skinner, maybe Ostap Safin. I think Evan Bouchard has an excellent chance to make the NHL team.
  6. Can we identify players more likely to succeed? Draft number means a lot, and the odds do inform. For instance, it is basically impossible for all of Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear and John Marino to become productive NHL regulars. It is far more likely that only one of three will play in the NHL to 100 or more games—and all of them could fail. That is what draft history suggests.
  7. Who is the best prospect taken outside the first round? My vote goes to Ethan Bear, but the two goalies turning pro this fall plus Tyler Benson and Caleb Jones are worth discussing. Second rounders from 2018 (McLeod and Rodrigue) deserve a mention.
  8. How concerned are you about injuries? Benson had a significant injury history but most of the players drafted by Edmonton have enjoyed good health as junior players. McDavid missed a portion of his final junior season as a result of an injury suffered during a fight, Yamamoto missed some time in draft +1.
  9. Any sign of analytics in this draft? There are moneypuck bets in my opinion. The last player chosen inside the top 100 whose offense was a mystery came in 2016 (third round, Matthew Cairns) and those kinds of picks have been ironed out of the organization. I don’t know whether to credit Green or Keith Gretzky (whose first draft would have been 2017) but it’s gone and that’s a big damned deal.
  10. Biggest change recently? Edmonton had no second or third round pick in 2014, and matched that in 2015. That’s a lot of time spent losing ground to the competition. Since then, the club has managed three second-round selections in three seasons. It’s important for the Oilers to given themselves a good chance at success outside the first round. That’s the biggest strategic change in recent drafts.
  11. So, name a Money Puck bet. Kailer Yamamoto is a strong money puck bet, because the math would call him a top 10 selection and the Oilers grabbed him No. 22 because bias. He could be a massive return on investment.
  12. Oilers could have had that player in 2016, if they had drafted Alex DeBrincat in the second round. They seemed to have rectified the oversight, Yamamoto seems a pretty good comp for DeBrincat. You won’t hear people saying that, but for me that’s a pretty solid work around.
  13. Anything that should be worrisome? The third round in 2016. Markus Niemelainen stalled in his development but he was a solid option at the time so it’s difficult to be overly critical. The Matthew Cairns selection strikes me as a misstep, maybe they saw him good. There was consensus quality on the board at the time, so 2016 third round saw some wobble in my opinion.
  14. Name the up and down arrows. No downbeats from the 2015 draft, that looks like a dandy. The 2016 draft has Benson as an injury worry, Niemelainen/Cairns we’ve discussed, that’s about it. The 2017 draft has Yamamoto and then some terrific later arrows like Kirill Maksimov, Ostap Safin, Dmitri Samorukov.
  15. How many of the 27 draft picks are going to have actual NHL careers? We should take the lottery picks out because McDavid’s already gone and Puljujarvi is a fantastically good bet.
  16. Okay, of the 25 players not named McDulujarvi, how many play 400 games in the NHL? I will bet Yamamoto and Bouchard make it, no sure things after those two men but it’s early. If you make me bet on two players, I’ll say Kirill Maksimov and Ethan Bear.
  17. Your take year by year? The 2015 draft is trending well, McDavid and Bear have played in the NHL already. The 2016 draft looks a little out there now, but if Puljujarvi emerges as the player we all see then the weather changes in a heartbeat. Benson had better health this year, maybe he settles in as a checker. The 2017 draft looks like it might be better than 2016, the first five picks are all trending well. The 2018 draft is too soon to know.
  18. Is skill the theme of Green drafts? Yes. Far more skill. The group is also risk averse compared to any of the previous drafting teams. As well, the Oilers are drafting mainly big men and have grabbed a mittful of defensemen (12 D, 11F, 4G).
  19. Okay, it’s five years from now and you’re reading this. What is the thing you’re most relieved about? That I didn’t hang a nickname like ‘Magnificent Bastard’ on Bob Green.
  20. What was the best Stu MacGregor draft? The 2011 edition produced Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Oscar Klebfom and Tobias Rieder. I’ll go with that one.
  21. Five years from now, you’re reading and what are you most pleased about in regard to the Green team? Reasonable expectations are probably six or seven men (two per draft or close) who will emerge with 100+ NHL games.
  22. Who are they? Connor McDavid, Ethan Bear, Jesse Puljujarvi, Tyler Benson, Kailer Yamamoto, Kirill Maksimov, Stuart Skinner, Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod. That’s nine.
  23. How many will play 500+ games? McDavid, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Bouchard should be locks. The rest of the group will make or break these drafts and we’ll see. Bear has an early edge on the rest of the group.
  24. Did Chiarelli try to make up for all those picks traded in 2015? Yes, and I should point out Craig MacTavish traded much of the 2014 draft as well. Chiarelli added Cooper Marody by trade and signed free agents Matt Benning, Drake Caggiula, Cameron Hebig and others.
  25. What is Keith Gretzky’s role? No idea, but the overall thrust of the last two drafts has been more structured and in line with industry standard. The “smartest men in the room” syndrome seems to have gone away.
  26. Are you satisfied with the Green scouting department? Yes. Fans have identified Mathew Barzal as a miss but the scouts didn’t get a chance to draft him. We may have had assurances Eriksson-Ek was the pick but the story was the trade and you can’t judge a scouting team on picks they didn’t have a chance to make. That’s a bad hill to die on when discussing the scouts in my opinion. Alex DeBrincat was available at the Tyler Benson slot, I think they found a workaround with Kailer Yamamoto. I believe the amateur scouting department is probably the top group in the organization that we can see.

RISK AVERSE

 

 

 

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Bank Shot

VOR: I will say again that the reason I posted all three articles is that I am trying to make the point that expected goal models need to take into account a large number of factors. If you read all three that becomes rather obvious. Thus models like Ricki is proposing and possibly other more robust models are too simplistic.

That said, if you go into a defensive shell you are excepting a paradigm that goes like this: if I give up more shots and higher quality shots and stop trying to score I can win because I’m ahead already and there isn’t enough time left in the game for them to come all the way back. It fits right in with playing for the Bettman point. Not to mention is teaching a team how not to win in the playoffs. And how many Stanley Cups did Jacques Lemaire win in Minnesota.? How about New Jersey over your handpicked years?

I would say that both Minnesota and New Jersey generally outperformed their talent level over the years. Minnesota especially under Lemaire.

I think that it is good evidence that the defensive shell style of hockey is still pretty effective.

Heck, Boucher took two teams to the 3rd round of the playoffs in the last ten years.

I mean its terrible hockey to watch, but I don’t think its proven to be inferior by any means.

VOR

Bank Shot: Even when you track it long term, teams are still very good at holding leads.

23 teams out of 30 have 10 or fewer regulation losses when leading after two periods over the course of the last five years.

What is changing strategies going to gain teams? Maybe 1-2 points per season?

That is even if the defensive shell is actually harmful…

There are so many variables unaccounted for. The trailing team is going to push heavily for offence, as well as shorten their bench.

The increased shooting percentagewhen trailing late could very well be due to the trailing team sitting their 4th line guys who usually have lower shooting percentages and playing their stars more often.

Also if you look at say the Minnesota Wild during the Lemaire years, they basically played the entire game in a defensive shell. In the 4 years post lockout that Lemiare was coach, Minnesota was tied for first in the league with fewest regulation losses when leading after the second period. Their combined regulation/OT losses was alone in first place.

Best in the league.

If you look from 05/-6 to 17-18 the team that has the fewest regulation losses when leading after 2 periods. New Jersey.The NHL poster boys for 60 minute defensive shells.

If the defensive shell is a poor strategy, you would think that over a decade long span, teams known for laying back in a defensive posture would prove to be subpar at holding leads.

I’m not saying there is no merit to the idea that a defensive shell has the potential to be harmful, but I think it was far from proven in that article.

I will say again that the reason I posted all three articles is that I am trying to make the point that expected goal models need to take into account a large number of factors. If you read all three that becomes rather obvious. Thus models like Ricki is proposing and possibly other more robust models are too simplistic.

That said, if you go into a defensive shell you are excepting a paradigm that goes like this: if I give up more shots and higher quality shots and stop trying to score I can win because I’m ahead already and there isn’t enough time left in the game for them to come all the way back. It fits right in with playing for the Bettman point. Not to mention is teaching a team how not to win in the playoffs. And how many Stanley Cups did Jacques Lemaire win in Minnesota.? How about New Jersey over your handpicked years?

Bank Shot

VOR: I do think it is fair to say given the vast majority of NHL teams go into defensive shells every time they get a lead that there will be one or two glowing examples of it working each year and a few tteams that are cautionary tales of why it is a dumb, dumb strategy. Our mind tricks us into believing that the teams that succeed with the strategy do so because they execute it well. The teams that do badly are just crappy at executing the defensive shell. The strategy works – mastering it is the key.

When each year the winners and losers change our confirmation bias kicks in and convinces us who is excelling at implementing the strategy and who is crapping the bed has changed. It never occurs to us the randomness of the benefits of the strategy tells us either a) it is frigging hard to do well or b) a bad strategy.

The evidence is that it is the latter. The only reason, beyond luck, that teams that do this don’t get punished is precisely because everyone does it. It is exactly like 4 down conversions in American football. Kicking the ball away is a dumb strategy, the math is overwhelming. But a bad strategy persists because everyone does it.

Even when you track it long term, teams are still very good at holding leads.

23 teams out of 30 have 10 or fewer regulation losses when leading after two periods over the course of the last five years.

What is changing strategies going to gain teams? Maybe 1-2 points per season?

That is even if the defensive shell is actually harmful…

There are so many variables unaccounted for. The trailing team is going to push heavily for offence, as well as shorten their bench.

The increased shooting percentage when trailing late could very well be due to the trailing team sitting their 4th line guys who usually have lower shooting percentages and playing their stars more often.

Also if you look at say the Minnesota Wild during the Lemaire years, they basically played the entire game in a defensive shell. In the 4 years post lockout that Lemiare was coach, Minnesota was tied for first in the league with fewest regulation losses when leading after the second period. Their combined regulation/OT losses was alone in first place.

Best in the league.

If you look from 05/-6 to 17-18 the team that has the fewest regulation losses when leading after 2 periods. New Jersey. The NHL poster boys for 60 minute defensive shells.

If the defensive shell is a poor strategy, you would think that over a decade long span, teams known for laying back in a defensive posture would prove to be subpar at holding leads.

I’m not saying there is no merit to the idea that a defensive shell has the potential to be harmful, but I think it was far from proven in that article.

Jaxon

digger50: Turns out he’s not expensive at all, in term or salary.

Lucic may or may not be here.

We didn’t add a heck of a lot of speed. Rieder is quicker but his cieling is similar to Patrick’s.

We are still talking about adding another tweener type center. This team would be so much stronger with the addition of Maroon at around 2M

Maroon, when healthy and not giving a hometown discount to a team right to the cap to be near his son is not a $2M player. If he didn’t have surgery this summer, he would be getting at least $3.5M anywhere else.

Jaxon

Woodguy v2.0: He played in the AHL and was an assistant coach for the Marlies.

Plus, his dad is a pretty damn good source. His did is Bob Bourne. 4 Stanley Cups. And was the Islanders leading scorer in their last Cup win against the Oilers in ’83. His dad also coached pro hockey until 2001.

Jaxon

Woodguy v2.0: Dmen
With GF% Without McDavid
Yohann Auvitu 58.1
Eric Gryba 47.6
Darnell Nurse 46.3
Matthew Benning 45.1
Kris Russell 42.2
Adam Larsson 42.0
Brandon Davidson 37.5
Oscar Klefbom 31.3
Ethan Bear 26.7
Andrej Sekera 10.5

Another start that makes me think Nurse will get paid well, even on a bridge (4 to 4.2?), and he’d be getting 5.5 to 6 on a long term.

6th in the NHL in 5v5 ice time. 37th in 5v5 points. Sure you can say he was zoomed by McDavid, but so is everyone and he had the best non-McDavid GF% among core D with regular shifts. All this against elite competition. And he’s 23, big, mean, McDavid’s buddy, fan favorite, and skates like the wind. Dumba’s contact. His agent has a tonne of ammunition. He’s still 4 years from his peak.

VOR

My point was actually that expected goal models need to take game states into consideration.

VOR

Bank Shot: The Dallas Stars were the 15th best team in the league at closing out a game when winning after two periods last season.

They went 31-2-3.

It’d be real hard to turn coaches away from defensive shells when the results are so very good.

And I’m not sure I’d want to watch a sport where there are even less third period comebacks anyhow.

It works because having a lead after two periods is a good strategy. Not because going into a defensive shell is a good strategy.

VOR

Lowetide: Back in my baseball reading years, Bill James wrote (maybe in an abstract) that the randomness of “clutch” was such that it was impossible to depend on. It explained perfectly everything about my youth watching baseball except the Chicago Cubs. They sucked in August all the time.

I do think it is fair to say given the vast majority of NHL teams go into defensive shells every time they get a lead that there will be one or two glowing examples of it working each year and a few tteams that are cautionary tales of why it is a dumb, dumb strategy. Our mind tricks us into believing that the teams that succeed with the strategy do so because they execute it well. The teams that do badly are just crappy at executing the defensive shell. The strategy works – mastering it is the key.

When each year the winners and losers change our confirmation bias kicks in and convinces us who is excelling at implementing the strategy and who is crapping the bed has changed. It never occurs to us the randomness of the benefits of the strategy tells us either a) it is frigging hard to do well or b) a bad strategy.

The evidence is that it is the latter. The only reason, beyond luck, that teams that do this don’t get punished is precisely because everyone does it. It is exactly like 4 down conversions in American football. Kicking the ball away is a dumb strategy, the math is overwhelming. But a bad strategy persists because everyone does it.

Oz

VOR,

Thank you VOR for this and the previous two articles

Bank Shot

VOR:
And this one is about defensive shells and game states.

https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/11/18/the-defensive-shell-is-a-good-idea-in-theory-unfortunately-it-doesnt-work/

The Dallas Stars were the 15th best team in the league at closing out a game when winning after two periods last season.

They went 31-2-3.

It’d be real hard to turn coaches away from defensive shells when the results are so very good.

And I’m not sure I’d want to watch a sport where there are even less third period comebacks anyhow.

OriginalPouzar

His massive uptick in G/60 did start prior to being paired with Nuge but, yes, I agree, having Nuge with him definitely helps (although when he was with Drai earlier in the year, and the year before, that is an upper echelon passer as well).

norm_klassen

I think having such a gifted passer like rnh on the wing helped the goal scoring of mcdavid. And it helps rnh can keep up with 97

VOR
VOR

And if you want to include puck movement here is a study of SM-Liga.

https://www.theseus.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/95439/Elomo%20Poikonen%20Final.pdf?sequence=1

Put these papers together and you can build your own expected goal model.

VOR

I thought those of you who would like a sound foundation in shooting a hockey puck would find this interesting.

http://www.theseus.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/54090/Bachelor%20Thesis%20%20McMillan.pdf?sequence

OriginalPouzar

McDavid finished the year at 1.34G/60 but I’m sure we all recall him scoring more goals later in the year.

He scored 0.87G/60 from the beginning of the year through December 31 but, from January 1 through the end of the season, that doubled to 1.74G/60 a magnificent number.

From February 1 through the end of the year, it rose to 2.16G/60.

I don’t a rate that high is sustainable but its pretty clear that when he decides he wants to score more goals, he scores more goals.

If McDavid decides he wants to win the Rocket Richard, I think he will win the Rocket Richard.

rickithebear

Anyhow off to the beach.

rickithebear

frjohnk: So you are basically using shot location to measure expected goals.

How do the numbers compare from last year,the year before and McDavids first year?

I’m curious on what your database is saying on this.

Thier was a change in goalie equip.
I have not looked at what has driven the change to 2.73 GAA.

I suspect thier maybe a shit in my definition of line in the sand between HD:LD ratio.
In this model thier is no MD sh.

8-9 Years ago I said expected goals was the Cummulative sum of sh% of my Shot chart that as it turned out, matched Alkan Ryders 2006 Shot Quality.
That Ryder failed to see the amplitude in his curves as an individual measure rather than the mass belief in a regression to commonality. PDO and other stupid bullshit ideas like that hockey WAR or GAR.

Paralleled with the SOE is x,y location in rink and player position structure during SOE.

It simplifies your system choices. Then the table scraps you guys discuss are the small +/- ranges around the SOE.

rickithebear

Fro John:

Sequence of Events logic in power plants.
Is like my Gosl diff success/ failure route tree Map.
Thier are a series of %. Asked outcomes.
That take you to diffrent locations on the event map.

Ex. 2 opposition forwards pressing a single D at the interior edge of our HD area:
Thier are a collection of failures that can take us to that same point on our goal diff tree.

Counter off failed entry
Counter off block
Counter off give away
Counter off missed shot
Counter off fwds & single d down low.
D partner breaking HD perimeter linear structure by pressing the blue

List of SOE actions to avoid and maintain.
With a high shift repeatability.

Accepting that thier will be exceptional events by athletes you can do nothing about.
13-14/Fistric gave up 2 goals to his side in all his even minutes.
One was the memorable Jagr goal.
1 normal goal to his side.
That is the best baseline performance I have ever seen from a dmen in 30+ games season.

The other 3 dmen with long 0 event baseline cycles as oilers since 08.
Souray NJD HD trainer
Fayne NJD HD trained
Larsson NJD HD trained.

Now we got the other HD whisperer.

You guys look at the table scraps of Goal diff.
Tackle the high ratio success/failure events.
That like snakes & Ladd era take you to diffrent points on SOE map.

Woodguy v2.0

I want to get the shot volume of each shot type, but not sure if its possible on corsica.

Might have a lash at it later.

rickithebear

(P) Pendergast amateur
(S) SMB amateur
(G) Green amateur
(M) MacT/Buch College
(Pr) Pro Scouting

Current Roster:
RNH (S) – Mcdavid (S) – Rattie (Pr)
Lucic (Pr) – Draisaitl (S) – Rieder (S)
Khaira (S) – Strome (Pr) – Puljujarvi (G)
Caggulia (M) – Brodziak (P) – Kassian (Pr)
Aberg (Pr)

Klefbom (S) – Larsson (Pr)
Sekera (Pr) – Russell (Pr)
Nurse (S) – Benning (M)
Gravel (Pr)

Talbot (Pr)
Koskinen (Pr)
Montoya (Pr)

Pro scouting picking up an oilers pick is reconfirming the head scouts quality.

12 pro
7 Stu
2 Mac
1 Green
1 Pend

ashley

JimmyV1965:
I wonder if someone would have an answer to this question. When looking at Bouchard you would never think he is 18 years old. Hell, he looks older than RNH right now. Is it at all possible that he has developed at a biological pace that is older than his chronological age? Although he’s 19, could he have the body of let’s say a 23 year old in terms of strength and power etc? Or would he simply have the body of an 18 year old and just looks older? This would obviously have an impact on his NHL readiness.

Yes. Biological age and chronological age can be quite different for some in childhood and adolescence, evening out for girls around age 19 and boys around 21.

The organizations leading the education of youth coaches in Canada are considering changing evaluations and grouping to biological age rather than birth certificate age. Remember that small kid that was small forever and couldn’t muster much against the big kids in his age group but ended up 6’2″ in grade 12? Remember the big kid that was always big and pretty much a grown man/woman at age 13, but then ended up being one of the smaller guys/girls in high school?

The latter are most vulnerable to quitting sports at a younger age as they had been praised as the star of the team from age 6-14 by virtue of advanced size, speed, and agility for their age, but then everyone else catches up and many pass him/her. While her skill is still progressing, on a relative basis, it feels like she is running in place.

Woodguy v2.0

Some interesting SV% from the last 3 years. (seems to fit the conversation)

Split into High Danger, Medium Danger and Low Danger as per Corsica:

For reference, here is the NHL average (min 1000 5v5 minutes played) for goalies for all 3 of these SV%

LDSv% 97.56
MDSv% 91.77
HDSv% 80.11

EDM Goalies:

17/18
LDSv%
Al Montoya 98.35
Cam Talbot 98.24
Laurent Brossoit 98.28

MDSv%
Al Montoya 92.86
Cam Talbot 90.29
Laurent Brossoit 83.65

HDSv%
Al Montoya 79.63
Cam Talbot 79.77
Laurent Brossoit 88.24

Maybe Al wasn’t that bad? I wonder if Laurent cleans up his MDSv% in WPG? His MDSv% is bad every year.

Remember that Talbot’s big drop off was in 4v5 SV%. He was off 0.010 in 5v5 SV% (.927 to .917 iirc)

16/17
LDSv%
Cam Talbot 97.95
Jonas Gustavsson 95.56
Laurent Brossoit 100

MDSv%
Cam Talbot 94.85
Jonas Gustavsson 86.54
Laurent Brossoit 87.5

HDSv%
Cam Talbot 80.11
Jonas Gustavsson 86.36
Laurent Brossoit 90.48

Huh. Seems like Talbot was very similar in HDSv% to this past (poor) year, but its the MDSv% that was so high in 16/17 and a bit below average in 17/18

15/16
LDSv%
Anders Nilsson 96.19
Cam Talbot 97.10
Laurent Brossoit 95.56

MDSv%
Anders Nilsson 90.00
Cam Talbot 91.78
Laurent Brossoit 86.05

HDSv%
Anders Nilsson 82.4
Cam Talbot 79.65
Laurent Brossoit 75.86

Lots to unpack here and I gotta run to the airport…..

frjohnk

rickithebear:
A little 10 yr old theory math.

In the average 30 shot game:
With avg HD sh save%. .8250
With avg LD sh save% .9650

The worst HD pair 14.5 HD
14.5 x .825 = 11.9625 sv = 2.5375 ga
15.5 x .965 = 14.9575sv = .5425 ga
26.92 sv/30 = .897 sv% = 3.08 ga

Avg HD PDF 10.5 HD
10.5 HD = 8.6625 sv = 1.8375 ga
19.5 LD = 18.8175 sv = .6825 ga
27.48 sv/30 = .916 sv% = 2.52 ga
This is avg Sh Density for 30 Shot gm.

Best HD d pr 7.00 HD
7.0 HD = 5.775 sv = 1.225 ga
23 LD = 22.195 sv = .805 ga
27.97sv/30 = .932 sv% = 2.03 ga

A little density secret you guys never figured out.
I kept feeding you!
Avg gm density is 30 shots/.916/2.52

3.02ga/(1-.908) = 32.82 Density.
3730 min/60 = 62.1667gm
2036sh/62.1667gm = 32.75 sh/gm

Relative terms
.916 x (32.82/32.75) = .918 sv%

Our defence by average.
.908 – .918 = -.010
Our defence was brutal last year.

So you are basically using shot location to measure expected goals.

How do the numbers compare from last year,the year before and McDavids first year?

I’m curious on what your database is saying on this.

digger50

rickithebear:
A little 10 yr old theory math.

In the average 30 shot game:
With avg HD sh save%. .8250
With avg LD sh save% .9650

The worst HD pair 14.5 HD
14.5 x .825 = 11.9625 sv = 2.5375 ga
15.5 x .965 = 14.9575sv = .5425 ga
26.92 sv/30 = .897 sv% = 3.08 ga

Avg HD PDF 10.5 HD
10.5 HD = 8.6625 sv = 1.8375 ga
19.5 LD = 18.8175 sv = .6825 ga
27.48 sv/30 = .916 sv% = 2.52 ga
This is avg Sh Density for 30 Shot gm.

Best HD d pr 7.00 HD
7.0 HD = 5.775 sv = 1.225 ga
23 LD = 22.195 sv = .805 ga
27.97sv/30 = .932 sv% = 2.03 ga

A little density secret you guys never figured out.
I kept feeding you!
Avg gm density is 30 shots/.916/2.52

3.02ga/(1-.908) = 32.82 Density.
3730 min/60 = 62.1667gm
2036sh/62.1667gm = 32.75 sh/gm

Relative terms
.916 x (32.82/32.75) = .918 sv%

Our defence by average.
.908 – .918 = -.010
Our defence was brutal last year.

Ricky I do t always (often) follow your numbers, but I do like it when you draw some conclusions.

“Our defence was brutal”

Okay, I can agree defence was a weakness, but I am at a loss as how to fix it without understanding fully where it breaks down.

I don’t think it was poor because a d man rushed the puck up the ice, abandoning his position. Small factor.

It seems poor defence throughout the entire line up.

Opposing wingers came out of the corners and around Klefbom like he wasn’t even there. Is that on Klefbom or a symptom of injury?

They went around Sekera and Larson because they literally were not there. Injuries.

Opposing players find themselves wide open in front of Talbot, not an Oiler in sight. System.

Oilers d men were found chasing a man out to the point. Wingers were caught trying to cover a man breaking to the net. Wingers often looked bewildered. systems

In some games , Even before you could point the finger at anything, goalies let in the first or second shot. Goalies.

And teams chuckled at the upside down T formation penalty kill. Systems.

Did our players suddenly forget how to play defence in 2017? What other factors were in play?

Easiest solution, improves health and change systems back to what was successful. I put this more on the coaches than anything g else, and the entire17/18 season on the coaches as the largest single factor in the lack of success.

Just building on your post Ricky. Wish I could draw more conclusions from your numbers but you need to help me along more.

rickithebear

I liked that Lou said post draft with Islanders that they followed Snows current Scouting group..

Bank Shot

rickithebear:
LT:

It surprises me that you think the Scouting staff under MacT
Did not have Mcdavid,s name @ #1 in pen on thier draft board.

Otherwise the Mcdavid pick is just Following MacT,s position.
You know the GM who won the lottery pick.

We cannot say we would have won the lottery with PC as GM.

PC, s first pick was to move a 1st and 2nd for Reinhart.

A pick a smart GM like MacT (who acquired it) would have retained and selected with.

MacT may have been one of the guys in the room pushing for Reinhart.

I don’t think Chiarelli came into the org with a big boner to acquire Griffin Reinhart. It’s documented that he was after Hamilton first.

I think they had marching orders to improve the defence and they probably had a list of guys they wanted/were available to acquire.

Reinhart was probably near the top of that list due to a lot of guys in the Oilers org having attachment to him from his Oil Kings days.

Chiarelli has to be held responsible for that deal, but in fairness to him, the whole org is still infested with Oiler hockey managers that have proven to be just terrible at their jobs.

rickithebear

LT:

It surprises me that you think the Scouting staff under MacT
Did not have Mcdavid,s name @ #1 in pen on thier draft board.

Otherwise the Mcdavid pick is just Following MacT,s position.
You know the GM who won the lottery pick.

We cannot say we would have won the lottery with PC as GM.

PC, s first pick was to move a 1st and 2nd for Reinhart.

A pick a smart GM like MacT (who acquired it) would have retained and selected with.

rickithebear

So we make the playoffs defending the area.
We’re shot success is 5 times greater than the the area
we choose to defend a year later.
Missing the playoffs.

People advocate having our D skate up abandon defending the area that got us in the playoffs.
So tha we can keep it out of the hands of the forwards who are 4 times better at generating even offence.

Not running a 3 – 2 structure so we can drop to a NZ trap on the counter.
A NZ trap That reduces zone entry and the CA our Dmen/goalies are subjected to.

Cup winning thinking!
Brought yo you by 80,s thinking oilers fans.
When goalie median save % .876 – .881
You could score from distance.
The HD/ld ratio was much lower.

This is not the 80,s.

From an oilers fan from 1994 to present.

rickithebear

A little 10 yr old theory math.

In the average 30 shot game:
With avg HD sh save%. .8250
With avg LD sh save% .9650

The worst HD pair 14.5 HD
14.5 x .825 = 11.9625 sv = 2.5375 ga
15.5 x .965 = 14.9575sv = .5425 ga
26.92 sv/30 = .897 sv% = 3.08 ga

Avg HD PDF 10.5 HD
10.5 HD = 8.6625 sv = 1.8375 ga
19.5 LD = 18.8175 sv = .6825 ga
27.48 sv/30 = .916 sv% = 2.52 ga
This is avg Sh Density for 30 Shot gm.

Best HD d pr 7.00 HD
7.0 HD = 5.775 sv = 1.225 ga
23 LD = 22.195 sv = .805 ga
27.97sv/30 = .932 sv% = 2.03 ga

A little density secret you guys never figured out.
I kept feeding you!
Avg gm density is 30 shots/.916/2.52

3.02ga/(1-.908) = 32.82 Density.
3730 min/60 = 62.1667gm
2036sh/62.1667gm = 32.75 sh/gm

Relative terms
.916 x (32.82/32.75) = .918 sv%

Our defence by average.
.908 – .918 = -.010
Our defence was brutal last year.

who

Oilman99: Benson is primed to open a lot of eyes this fall. This is the first time he gets to come to camp with a full off season of training. He doesn’t have to have the fastest feet because he has the smarts to go to the right places, and the hands to do something with the puck when he gets there.

All good. I’m pulling for him.
But I gotta see it to believe it

OriginalPouzar

Oilman99: When you have the best player in the world,dangerous in all situations, in the prime of his career, you don’t reduce his minutes.

I don’t believe he’s in his prime but that is neither here nor there. I don’t believe that playing him 22 plus minutes at evens plus both special teams is conducive to him being as effective as he can be.

Wilde

I really hope this blanket ‘miss your next shift after a GA’ treatment doesn’t continue.

This time it happened in a Sharks game in March, Bear jumped up into the play and Puljujarvi didn’t cover, three on one the other way and Yessa almost came back and broke up the pass.

Really dumb play, he was the last one in the zone and Lucic and Drai were both F1 and F2, he had more than enough time to notice and cover for Bear. Impressive speed and hustle on the backcheck, but it should have never even come to that.

Then all three miss the next shift. What the hell? It was nobody’s fault but Puljujarvi’s. My preference would be to not punish anyone at all, because it was obvious he knew it was his fault, and he’d probably work harder and smart his next shift to make up for it, and you don’t want to make him scared of being benched in the middle of a death-march where you have most precious NHL-level development time.

But if you’re gonna bench someone, just bench the guy who’s at fault and that’s it! Why waste opportunities to play Leon when he did nothing wrong? Just because the 3rd/4th lines were playing well ten minutes into a game doesn’t make them more likely to play well the last fifty.

I’m getting to the point where this stuff is a legitimate risk area going into next season. It goes like this:

1) McDavid’s health

2) Talbot’s health

3) Larsson’s health

4) Sekera & Benning playing passable top 4D

5) The young RW’s stepping up

6) McLellan self sabotaging, including but not limited to areas 4 and 5

Oilman99

OriginalPouzar: I agree that McDavid’s minutes need to be reduced a bit.

I think his PK minutes should be reduced – don’t get me wrong, I’m not of the opinion that he shouldn’t be on the PK at all for fear of injury but his minutes need to be reduced somewhere as I think his PP minutes will increase over time.

Once he starts to excel on the PP (which is not a strong point for him yet), I could see him playing the full two minutes on occasion.

I also think the odd double shift on the bottom 2 lines is prudent (and would be in favor of dressing 11F and 7D situationally.

When you have the best player in the world,dangerous in all situations, in the prime of his career, you don’t reduce his minutes.

JimmyV1965

Richard S.S.:
Patrick Maroon is a LW with no place to play on this Roster, as Nugent-Hopkins, Lucic and Khaira all rate much higher.Patrick Maroon’s career numbers, each year’s number and last year’s number without McDavid are mediocre at best.Almost everybody showed better than he does when not with McDavid.

Until Maroon fired his Agent, they were still looking for a multi-year deal worth more than he got.No GM in existence is going to put his entire Offseason on hold until a 4th Line Winger’s price would go down,Peter Chiarelli moved on very early and did much, much better.

This love of mediocrity on this site has to stop, it’s too funny to take seriously.

Grabner got a contract for three years at $3.5 mill. I really doubt there’s a player, coach or fan of the New Jersey Devils that thought he was even close to Maroon in effectiveness.

Oilman99

Lowetide: The numbers suggest Benson will be a bottom six forward, we’ll see but they have remained fairly consistent.

First.year coming to camp healthy and able to compete,me thinks Benson could prove your predicition wrong, here’s hoping.

Oilman99

who: Benson seems to have the hands and brain to play at the NHL level. The question is his skating.. He looked very average at the WHL level last year. He needs to get a lot quicker.
Safin seems to have all the tools. Size, shot, hands. But after watching him at the world juniors I have some serious questions about his compete level or hockey IQ or both. Seemed a step behind and at times seemed to be in a trance. Slow to recognize or process or whatever.
My dark horse is Samarokov. Thought he was real solid for Russia last year and appears to have a complete set of skills.

Benson is primed to open a lot of eyes this fall. This is the first time he gets to come to camp with a full off season of training. He doesn’t have to have the fastest feet because he has the smarts to go to the right places, and the hands to do something with the puck when he gets there.

Woodguy v2.0

Georges: Did Bourne play in the NHL? Is that really how it is in the bigs? As an HC, if you don’t have championship pedigree (which you probably don’t) or some spectacular insight into systems and tactics (which you probably don’t), isn’t your relationship with your players pretty much it? If you outsource the relationship part to your assistants, what exactly are you doing all day? I wonder…

Also, if our former assistants were in charge of relationships and they weren’t good at that, what were THEY doing all day? And why didn’t the HC notice or care?

He played in the AHL and was an assistant coach for the Marlies.

digger50

Richard S.S.:
Patrick Maroon is a LW with no place to play on this Roster, as Nugent-Hopkins, Lucic and Khaira all rate much higher.Patrick Maroon’s career numbers, each year’s number and last year’s number without McDavid are mediocre at best.Almost everybody showed better than he does when not with McDavid.

Until Maroon fired his Agent, they were still looking for a multi-year deal worth more than he got.No GM in existence is going to put his entire Offseason on hold until a 4th Line Winger’s price would go down,Peter Chiarelli moved on very early and did much, much better.

This love of mediocrity on this site has to stop, it’s too funny to take seriously.

I’m a bit late getting back to my post.

Love for Maroon is “too funny to take seriously?”

I really don’t understand your criticism. Maroon was a fantastic player and fantastic personality for theOilers. He helped out everywhere he was asked to play. He knew his job and kept stating it very simply and repeatedly. His stat numbers were fantastic away from McDavid. His intangibles I loved , though hard tomeasure, though I do believe players like Connor enjoyed them as well.

As for this year, we could have him pencilled in as one of our missing top six players. Start making lines with Maroon available, it’s much better. Right now with an injury or two we’ll see AHL players.

The argument against Maroon were threefold. He’s not fast, he’s duplicated by Lucic, and he’s going to be expensive.

Turns out he’s not expensive at all, in term or salary.

Lucic may or may not be here.

We didn’t add a heck of a lot of speed. Rieder is quicker but his cieling is similar to Patrick’s.

We are still talking about adding another tweener type center. This team would be so much stronger with the addition of Maroon at around 2M

Oilman99

Crazy Pedestrian:
Matt Dumba has signed a 5-yr $30M extension with the Wild.

I know that a long term extension with Nurse is not possible right now with the oilers cap constraints, but I do wonder how Dumba’s deal affects Nurse’s asking price.

Maybe in two years if he continues to improve, but not yet,serious improvement needed to warrant a contract that size.

Munny

Woodguy v2.0: Hopefully Todd refers to the players as “us” and not “the team in orange” as well.

That would be constructive. 😉

Munny

LT said…

Okay, it’s five years from now and you’re reading this. What is the thing you’re most relieved about? That I didn’t hang a nickname like ‘Magnificent Bastard’ on Bob Green.

This brought a smile to my face.

If the smart drafting continues, I’d be willing to call Gretzky “Magnificent Brother”.

leadfarmer

jtblack,

Well Benson is the new Pitlick, and I hope he can regain his health and have an NHL career.
Jones had issues with injuries last year. Not Oregon trail quantity or variety like the other guys but he spent a lot of the time less than healthy

Wonder Llama

John Chambers:
Richard S.S.,

The Beatdown of Brandon Manning is one of my favorite moments of the McDavid era.

And the stroking of Brent Burns’ beard.

slopitch

Georges,

Aren’t most of those player 2015 picks. The oilers traded away most of their picks that year. This type of analysis would need a few more years before you can count make any firm conclusions. LT uses area which I like despite being subjective.