Long Gone Blue

They’re almost all gone now, you see them every once in a long while on a Tuesday night or a Sunday afternoon. Someday they’ll just be a distant memory, like BA gas stations, Pop Shoppe, Cuban Lunch, Dog & Suds and rotary phones. The pure defenseman is in his death rattle now, the final Cadillac rolled off the line last spring. I’ll miss you, Don Awrey.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

KEVIN GRAVEL

  • Kevin Gravel is leather, not lumber. He played about as much as Eric Gryba (13:11) 5-on-5 per game last season, that’s about what we might expect from Gravel in terms of usage.
  • Gravel had Crohn’s disease last season, it cost him his slot on the depth chart, and men named Kurtis MacDermid and Oscar Fantenberg jumped over him to win playing time in the NHL.
  • If you want to read about his illness and recovery, google Kevin Gravel injury. Don’t google gravel injury, because you’ll get a bunch of scraped knee photos. Seriously.
  • He didn’t penalty kill much last season (3:27 total), and just 25:33 the season before. His shots against per 60 (30.53) was fabulous but in a small sample.

GRAVEL’S ROAD

I believe there’s an excellent chance Kevin Gravel will be on the opening night roster, but have come to suspect we’ll have eight defensemen on the roster when the plane lands in Cologne.

  • Note: I made on error on the Darnell Nurse DFF, and have corrected the chart. Nurse surges forward in DFF and his combination of percentage of time and performance in that time is impressive.

RIESEN TO BELIEVE, FIRST BLUSH 2018

  1. R Adam Larsson, 25. His first Edmonton season was impressive, as the defense and coverage improved with him on the ice. His second campaign was far more difficult but he played a lot and delivered solid results in the big parts of the game. 100%.
  2. L Oscar Klefbom, 25. Klefbom has the full range of skills and looks comfortable with Larsson, that’s my top pairing. Even in a season of great struggle, his defending numbers (mostly with Larsson) are good in the big parts of the game. Needs to trust his shot. 100%.
  3. L Darnell Nurse, 23. Big, strong, fleet and with a substantial mean streak. The truth is the Oilers badly need him to blossom into a completely reliable top-4D, someone who can be the strength on a pairing. I favor a bridge. 100%.
  4. R Matt Benning, 24. He’s a smart player, good-to-excellent with the puck and cool as a cucumber in pressure situations. He is still figuring things out and injuries lurk around every corner, but I’m more bullish on Benning than anyone I read. I am hopeful a Nurse-Benning pairing can take over the second assignments. 100%.
  5. L Andrej Sekera, 32. His final games were stronger and one hopes he can return to his established levels before injury. His absence was a big contributor to the Oilers poor start and middle disaster a year ago. 100%.
  6. L Kris Russell, 31. Todd McLellan values him highly, I think it could be argued he kept the kids (Nurse, Benning) from harm until ready. It may be time to move him down the depth chart, giving Benning the tougher competition. If that happens, Russell might be eligible for pressbox appearances by season’s end (depending on progress made by others). 100%.
  7. L Kevin Gravel, 26. He’s done the work necessary to iron out mistakes, he should be able to help on the penalty kill. Gravel is a young defenseman with a great chance to win 7D job, but he is not a lock for the job. However, it’s important to remember he was on a very good trajectory with Los Angeles before the illness. He is young enough to be around for some time. 70%.
  8. R Evan Bouchard, 18. The one player in the draft pool (available at 10) who could be projected onto an opening night roster. Bouchard’s skills are a perfect match for the Oilers needs and they can bring him along slowly in the early parts of the season because of the Euro trip. 70%.
  9. R Ethan Bear, 21. His chances of making the big club were reduced by Bouchard’s selection, but not extinguished. Most of Bear’s issues are in coverage and quickness defensively, those things can be worked on in Bakersfield. He could also shine like a diamond in training camp and force his way onto the roster. 20%
  10. L Keegan Lowe, 25. I think he has a shot at the No. 7 spot out of the gate. Lowe’s Bakersfield season was impressive, if he outplays Gravel and Stanton on merit suspect he makes the team. 20%.
  11. L Ryan Stanton, 29. He appears poised to battle Gravel for the 7D spot this fall, the edge goes to the player whose skill set best matches the required role, or even who shows best on the penalty kill. 20%.

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156 Responses to "Long Gone Blue"

  1. Glass says:

    Who is the 7th guy if Bouchard is playing?

    Klefbomb/Larsson
    Nurse/Benning
    Sekera/Bouchard
    /Russell?

    Or do you think Benning is the guy that has to sit out?

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    For the Montour arbitration, filings have reported a $4.75M ask for the player and $1.5M offer from the team.

    The arbitration is player elected so the team will choose 1 or 2 years (or walk away).

    Of course, they could settle before the hearing and sounds like they are working towards that.

    This bridge will be a decent comparison for Nurse. He had more points (32 to 26) but 12 of those were on the PP – he was over 2 min/game on the PP ad only about 1 min on the PK. Played mainly 2nd pairing at evens.

  3. Psyche says:

    There’s a possibility that as the early season progresses Lowe and Gravel become the 6th/7th d-men. Switching roles according to performance. I can see Russell (or maybe Sekera, although his contract is more difficult to move) getting traded in the early season if either Lowe or Gravel perform consistently on the 3rd pair.

    Bouchard’s play will factor in as well. They may want to pair him with Russell at the start, the “steady” veteran partner. Personally, I think Lowe and Gravel can tag-team that role just as well.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I assume that Gravel was signed to be on the NHL roster as the #7.

    From accounts, he was gaining traction in LA prior to getting sick – here is hoping that he can gain traction in Edmonton.

    It is disappointing that this type of d-man with limited offence has not been used on the PK in the past.

    I agree that the team will carry 8 D-men through the Eastern road trip – likely Bouchard being the 8th.

    That would mean that Yamamoto and Malone are both in the AHL (assuming health and assuming Rattie makes the team).

  5. Bos8 says:

    Personally, I’d want Sekera mentoring Bouchard. Give Sekera a focus and get out of his way.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve mentioned a few time (so sorry for repeating myself, yet again), that one of the keys to the season is Matt Benning establishing himself as a true second pairing d-man. If a Nurse (or Klefbom)/Benning pairing can play solid even strength minutes against good competition, that would go a long ways towards team success.

    That would keep Russell on the third pairing and away from 2RD (even if he has to play the right side on the 3rd pairing, that is much less egregious than 2RD).

    That would allow Sekera to play third pairing to continue to ease him back in.

  7. Wonder Llama says:

    I can always rely on you for some Canadian nostalgia, LT.

    I often pick up a Coffee Crisp when visiting the motherland but I’d forgotten about the Cuban Llunch chocolate bar. A quick google image search reminds me of Wig Wag, Eat-More, Bar Six, and Sweet Marie. And that stupid chunk of MacIntosh’s “creamy” toffee in the red package. It sucked but it llasted forever (there’s gotta be an Oilers metaphor in there somewhere).

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    I would say, assuring the team does carry 8D and has good health, there are two battles:

    1) Bear vs. Bouchard – similar to Yamamoto/Puljujarvi last year, given Bear can be sent to Bakersfield and brought back and once Bouchard is re-assigned to London, he is gone until their season is done, I think the writing is on the wall here.

    Not to mention, there was one skill last year that Bear excelled at and that was NHL ready, transitioning the puck quickly and efficiently. This happens to be the skill that Bouchard also excels at and I imagine he can also do so very well at the NHL level. As far as the rest of their games go, I’m not so sure that Bouchard won’t be ahead of Bear in most all of those areas.

    2) Gravel vs. Stanton vs. Lowe for the 8D spot. Gravel with the pre-camp lead.

  9. dustrock says:

    We’ll reassess before training camp but who do you pick for the 3 Pacific playoff spots?

    I can’t see Vancouver or Arizona being ready for another 1-2 years and I feel Anaheim is in kind of a weird spot.

    I think San Jose isn’t a Cup favourite but should make the playoffs.

    That leaves Oilers, Flames, Kings and VGK.

    I honestly would not be hugely surprised if Vegas missed the playoffs. I think there might be a Cup hangover, and they lost Neal and Perron without really replacing, and I’m guessing Glass and Suzuki will be ready in 2019-20 season.

    Kings added Kovalchuk but I’m not convinced he’ll be a world beater.

    Flames lost Hamilton, added Neal. I can’t really figure out the Peters hire but I’ll guess they’ll do better overall.

    Oilers basically got a year older. McDavid rises all boats but man playoffs are not a lock whatsoever.

  10. BONE207 says:

    Wonder Llama:
    I can always rely on you for some Canadian nostalgia, LT.

    Based on your history, you mean: Llt…don’t you?

  11. Richard S.S. says:

    When we talk about readily tradeable assets, those assets don’t bring Cap Relief being young, cheap or a Draft Pick. It’s extremely likely that the Oilers will not be trading anyone unless something really good falls in their lap. Other than signing Darnell Nurse sometime over the next 75 days, I can’t see the Oilers doing much else.

    Being Cap compliant for Game One is easy. Jesse Puljujarvi and his $ 3.425 Million Cap Hit does’t make the Team for Game One. Someone else does, much, much cheaper. Game Two, the someone else much, much cheaper gets sent down and Jesse Puljujarvi get called up because the Oilers have all Season to work on being Cap compliant at that time.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Glass:
    Who is the 7th guy if Bouchard is playing?

    Klefbomb/Larsson
    Nurse/Benning
    Sekera/Bouchard
    /Russell?

    Or do you think Benning is the guy that has to sit out?

    I think Russell is the obvious candidate to sit, but Sekera coming back from injury may benefit from a night off now and then.

  13. JimmyV1965 says:

    dustrock:
    We’ll reassess before training camp but who do you pick for the 3 Pacific playoff spots?

    I can’t see Vancouver or Arizona being ready for another 1-2 years and I feel Anaheim is in kind of a weird spot.

    I think San Jose isn’t a Cup favourite but should make the playoffs.

    That leaves Oilers, Flames, Kings and VGK.

    I honestly would not be hugely surprised if Vegas missed the playoffs. I think there might be a Cup hangover, and they lost Neal and Perron without really replacing, and I’m guessing Glass and Suzuki will be ready in 2019-20 season.

    Kings added Kovalchuk but I’m not convinced he’ll be a world beater.

    Flames lost Hamilton, added Neal. I can’t really figure out the Peters hire but I’ll guess they’ll do better overall.

    Oilers basically got a year older.McDavid rises all boats but man playoffs are not a lock whatsoever.

    The Pacific is wide open. Other than Vancouver, every team has a shot to win the division title. Every team also has a shot of not making the playoffs. We’re lucky because this is the weakest division in the league. I think the Flames have the best team on paper, but their goalie is a huge question mark and they don’t have a game breaker. Vegas screams regression. Their top line and goaltending can’t possibly match what they did last year.

  14. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I think that Gravel provides a floor for Sek. At worst Gravel should be able to perform at the Sek level from last year.

    – They have done a good job of creating rendundancies for the D IMO

    – And the upside of the D corps is any/all of Klef recovering, Sek recovering, Larsson better back, Nurse improving, Benning improving, and Bear and Bouchard fighting to be the 6th D, PP guy

    – Its been a smart, well thought development track IMO. Players play, coach them up, figure it out

    *Come on Tiger: what a glorious Open, both Speith and Rory against the old Lion: could be back 9 for the ages. 9 within 2: stunning leaderboard

  15. jp says:

    Glass:
    Who is the 7th guy if Bouchard is playing?

    Klefbomb/Larsson
    Nurse/Benning
    Sekera/Bouchard
    /Russell?

    Or do you think Benning is the guy that has to sit out?

    Lowetide: I think Russell is the obvious candidate to sit, but Sekera coming back from injury may benefit from a night off now and then.

    If we’re predicting who’s most likely to sit (vs. who should) I still feel like Benning is the answer.

    His results improved over the course of the year, but his TOI actually went down. 17:17 on the year, 16:19 after Jan 1, 15:08 after Mar 1. Russell was 19:04/19:40/19:32.

    Hopefully Benning plays well and McLellan surprises us, but as of now I see Russell >> Benning in the coaches eyes.

    Edit: maybe the new assistants have a say

  16. Melvis says:

    Keith Glass once played geetar in Hank Williams – The Show He Never Gave….as he did with Prairie Oyster.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whQpi-ulTJE&frags=pl%2Cwn

    I hope it’s still there – a nicely restored BA station in Newtonville ON. just east of TO. That might make for an interesting burger and hotdog joint – although the latter food group mostly belongs to Americans. With the exception of Brent Butt’s penchant for the chili cheese dog.

    Pop Shoppe meh. That shizz was awful iimo, but within the vein, Vernors still makes one of the finest gingerales on the planet.

    The Cuban Lunch is sorely missed. Ritter Sport makes fine substitutes. I actually spotted a Charleston Chew at a Can Tire gas station yesterday.

    Dog and Suds. Once found on 8th St. in Saskatoon. Canadians have never gone in for the hotdog to the degree found in the US. However, A&W offered a fine version until fairly recently. Problem was the wait time for the damn thing.

    I don’t want talk about rotary phones. They give me the willies. I was otherwise engaged with a cheerleader when some asshole at a party at my house (parents away for a week) thought it might be fun making some obscene phone calls to the high school librarian. Thing is, her lined had been tapped after a series of previous calls. Man, did the shit ever hit the fan when Sasktel threatened to pull the phone out of the house.

  17. defmn says:

    Richard S.S.:

    Being Cap compliant for Game One is easy.Jesse Puljujarvi and his $ 3.425 Million Cap Hit does’t make the Team for Game One.Someone else does, much, much cheaper.Game Two, the someone else much, much cheaper gets sent down and Jesse Puljujarvi get called up because the Oilers have all Season to work on being Cap compliant at that time.

    Pretty sure bonuses don’t count towards being cap compliant. That is why teams are dinged the following season if their bonus structure put them over the cap limit the year before.

  18. commonfan29 says:

    Lowetide: I think Russell is the obvious candidate to sit

    Is anyone else interested in seeing Russell on the wing a bit this pre-season?

  19. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    I recall my first McDonalds hamburger in Regina, around Albert Street maybe? Used to love to go to Riders practices with my uncle who worked for CN. On occasional days off we’d check out the Riders then A&W or when it opened, McDonalds.

    Also had my first ever taco at a small amusement park, golf driving range on the then south end of the city – can’t recall the name or location.

    My uncle taught me how to golf, about the NASA space program, football, baseball (he was for unclear reasons a Cincinnati Reds fan) and even politics around the time of Watergate. Sadly lost him to bladder cancer months after he retired at 65. What a shame, a great guy he was. We had moved with my dad who was in the army from Regina to Edmonton in ‘66 but as my parents family and friends were all still there they took my back for summer vacation every year til I turned 13. More to get me out of the house I imagine but I had a great time with my uncle and grandparents and all my summer pals around Grey Street.

    Watched the first moon landing at a friend of the families farm near Wilcox too!

    Lot of firsts for me in Regina & Saskatchewan. Even my first kiss!

  20. BONE207 says:

    commonfan29: Is anyone else interested in seeing Russell on the wing a bit this pre-season?

    Wasn’t he the highest scoring D last year? Let’s give him a shot…😁

  21. frjohnk says:

    A little talk last night about shots from the different locations.

    I dug them up

    Here is what our goalies faced from the different locations and how the numbers compared to the league average over the last two years

    All numbers here are at 5 on 5

    16-17

    LowDangerSA/60
    Cam Talbot 11.89
    Jonas Gustavsson 9.74
    Laurent Brossoit 11.46
    Oiler Average 11.71
    League Average 14.66

    MedDangerSA/60
    Cam Talbot 10.79
    Jonas Gustavsson 11.25
    Laurent Brossoit 12.58
    Oiler Average 10.95
    League Average 10.3

    HighDangerSA/60
    Cam Talbot 6.29
    Jonas Gustavsson 4.76
    Laurent Brossoit 4.7
    Oiler Average 6.08
    League Average 5.69

    17-18
    LDSA/60
    Cam Talbot 14.5
    Laurent Brossoit 11.6
    Oiler Average 14.05
    League Average 14.54

    MDSA/60
    Cam Talbot 11.3
    Laurent Brossoit 10.4
    Oiler Average 11.2
    League Average 10.56

    HDSA/60
    Cam Talbot 6.8
    Laurent Brossoit 5.1
    Oiler Average 6.5
    League Average 5.75

    * I did not put Montayos numbers in as I would have to separate his time from Montreal and Edmonton. Dont feel like doing that as it wouldnt tell us anything we did not already know.

    In both years, Oiler goalies saw more shots per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 from the medium and high danger areas than the league average.

    Shots against from the home plate area ( or to be really technical, “The Arrow” TM Bruce McCurdy)

    16-17
    Oilers 17.03
    league Average 15.99

    17-18
    Oilers 17.74
    League Average 16.31

    If we look at expected goals against from Corisca which measures a weighting of every shot that includes shot location PLUS shot type and the probability that shot will go based on league averages

    16-17
    Expected Goals Against/60
    Oilers 2.41
    League Average 2.27
    League Best (Wild) 1.91
    League Worst ( Ari) 2.68

    17-18
    Expected Goals Against/60
    Oilers 2.61
    League Average 2.36
    League Best (Wild) 1.95
    League Worst (Rangers) 2.8

  22. Bag of Pucks says:

    Imo this post today is one of the strongest pieces of evidence for Chiarelli’s work.

    From 2 through 7, there is now legitimate competition for every spot on the D depth chart. And the leftorium imbalance has been addressed.

    This is major progress from the days of Jultz, Marincin, Ference, Fayne, etc.

    If they get some of the positive regression expected from Larsson, KBom and Sekera along with a return to form from Talbot, it can be argued that the GM has fixed the D.

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    dustrock,

    I can’t see Vancouver or Arizona being ready for another 1-2

    ARI staring D:
    OEL-Demers
    Chychrun-Hjarlmasson
    Goligoski-Connauton
    Oesterle

    That’s in front of the best goalie in the Pacific.

    They’re my favourite right now to win the Pacific.

    6th best record in the NHL from Feb 1 on after Chychrun and Hjalrmasson got healthy.

    Goligoski had the worst season of his career and is a decent bet to bounce back.

  24. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Imo this post today is one of the strongest pieces of evidence for Chiarelli’s work.

    From 2 through 7, there is now legitimate competition for every spot on the D depth chart. And the leftorium imbalance has been addressed.

    This is major progress from the days of Jultz, Marincin, Ference, Fayne, etc.

    If they get some of the positive regression expected from Larsson, KBom and Sekera along with a return to form from Talbot, it can be argued that the GM has fixed the D.

    And it only took him 4 offseasons and trading a Hart winner to do it!

  25. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: And it only took him 4 offseasons and trading a Hart winner to do it!

    It’s a damn sight better than starting with the Cup Final D core they had in 06 and systematically gutting the depth chart for a decade straight.

    And again, Chia doesn’t have to trade for Larsson if Tambellini simply drafts him in the first place.

  26. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    dustrock,

    I can’t see Vancouver or Arizona being ready for another 1-2

    ARI staring D:
    OEL-Demers
    Chychrun-Hjarlmasson
    Goligoski-Connauton
    Oesterle

    That’s in front of the best goalie in the Pacific.

    They’re my favourite right now to win the Pacific.

    6th best record in the NHL from Feb 1 on after Chychrun and Hjalrmasson got healthy.

    Goligoski had the worst season of his career and is a decent bet to bounce back.

    But…what about your LHD-RHD theory (and Tocchet is a disciple of this as well)? Demers is the only RHD for now, and while he is the only one with chemistry with OEL and isn’t too bad, he really isn’t as good as you’ve tried to make him out to be.

    I think Arizona still has a long way to go before we declare them the best shot to win the Pacific. Maybe Raanta never gets back to how well he played in March, and maybe the star goalies of the Pacific bounce back to their usual selves?

    Not with San Jose and Los Angeles improving, and Edmonton likely bouncing back.

  27. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: And it only took him 4 offseasons and trading a Hart winner to do it!

    Not to mention that Chia tried to fix it with an RNH for Jones trade first but NSH went for Johansen instead.

    It will be interesting to see if TO can win it all with 3 drivers and a weak D, cos that’s kind of what you’ve advocated with the keep Hall and sign Demers approach.

    Imo, the Hall trade can’t be defended but neither can not fixing the D ASAP during McDavid’s ascent. Saddling a generational player with a mediocre backend would’ve been a tragedy. If only this org couldv’e addressed the D earlier in the rebuild.

  28. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: And it only took him 4 offseasons and trading a Hart winner to do it!

    Taylor Hall
    16th overall, 28th overall
    $9.5M AAV with 2 NMC’s

    Heavy, heavy price to fix the D

  29. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: And it only took him 4 offseasons and trading a Hart winner to do it!

    Hall wasn’t even close to being a Hart winner when traded. He was very good, yes. But not a Hart winner. Not even Team Canada, though he should have been.

    But you’re right. Keep Hall, sign Demers would have been better. Heck, we might have been celebrating back to back Stanleys.

    Demers has had a few homes in the last few years. Any apparent reason he can’t get the honey contract?

  30. Professor Q says:

    dustrock,

    Is Stastny not a replacement/upgrade on Neal or Perron? Not a winger but could replace the scoring potential?

    If VGK has similar goaltending as last year then they might surprise the NHL with another good run.

  31. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    dustrock,

    I can’t see Vancouver or Arizona being ready for another 1-2

    ARI staring D:
    OEL-Demers
    Chychrun-Hjarlmasson
    Goligoski-Connauton
    Oesterle

    That’s in front of the best goalie in the Pacific.

    They’re my favourite right now to win the Pacific.

    6th best record in the NHL from Feb 1 on after Chychrun and Hjalrmasson got healthy.

    Goligoski had the worst season of his career and is a decent bet to bounce back.

    They are made up like last year’s Flames, but without a Johnny Gaudreau. We’ve learnt that it’s okay keeping the puck out of the net, but you have to score as well. We were polar opposite last year.

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: It’s a damn sight better than starting with the Cup Final D core they had in 06 and systematically gutting the depth chart for a decade straight.

    And again, Chia doesn’t have to trade for Larsson if Tambellini simply drafts him in the first place.

    Or a Yak for Larsson trade happens when it was available.

    Note: not sure it was actually available, but there was hubbub

  33. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Or a Yak for Larsson trade happens when it was available.

    Note: not sure it was actually available, but there was hubbub

    There was even a Yak for Drouin trade rumour before Yak fell off too far and Drouin starting scoring more (and buying in to Yzerman). Do you think Drouin might have done well aside McDavid, or would it have been too much trouble?

  34. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Hall wasn’t even close to being a Hart winner when traded.

    5v5 Hall had 3 better seasons in Edmonton

    The big difference was his 5v4 season was out of this world.

    Demers got the honey contract from FLA (4.5×5) but got traded when they cut salary. Never understood FLA signing him with RHD Ekblad, Pysyk and Petrovic already on the roster.

  35. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q,

    “Rely” ? Is that Drouin?

    If so, I’d imagine he’d do well with 97

  36. JimmyV1965 says:

    Just rewatched the 3-2 loss to the Flames at the end of March. Talbot was pulled in the first period after allowing three goals on seven shots. Two of them were shots no more than 15 feet inside the blueline and the third was caused by a juicy rebound he gave up. Oil dominated the play but lost the game.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk:
    A little talk last night about shots from the different locations.

    I dug them up

    Here is what our goalies faced from the different locations and how the numbers compared to the league average over the last two years

    All numbers here are at 5 on 5

    16-17

    LowDangerSA/60
    Cam Talbot11.89
    Jonas Gustavsson9.74
    Laurent Brossoit11.46
    Oiler Average11.71
    League Average14.66

    MedDangerSA/60
    Cam Talbot10.79
    Jonas Gustavsson11.25
    Laurent Brossoit12.58
    Oiler Average10.95
    League Average10.3

    HighDangerSA/60
    Cam Talbot6.29
    Jonas Gustavsson4.76
    Laurent Brossoit4.7
    Oiler Average6.08
    League Average5.69

    17-18LDSA/60
    Cam Talbot14.5
    Laurent Brossoit11.6
    Oiler Average14.05
    League Average14.54

    MDSA/60
    Cam Talbot11.3
    Laurent Brossoit10.4
    Oiler Average11.2
    League Average10.56

    HDSA/60
    Cam Talbot6.8
    Laurent Brossoit5.1
    Oiler Average6.5
    League Average5.75

    * I did not put Montayos numbers in as I would have to separate his time from Montreal and Edmonton. Dont feel like doing that as it wouldnt tell us anything we did not already know.

    In both years, Oiler goalies saw more shots per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 from the medium and high danger areas than the league average.

    Shots against from the home plate area ( or to be really technical, “The Arrow” TM Bruce McCurdy)

    16-17
    Oilers 17.03
    league Average 15.99

    17-18
    Oilers 17.74
    League Average 16.31

    If we look at expected goals against from Corisca which measures a weighting of every shot that includes shot location PLUS shot type and the probability that shot will go based on league averages

    16-17
    Expected Goals Against/60
    Oilers 2.41
    League Average 2.27
    League Best (Wild) 1.91
    League Worst ( Ari) 2.68

    17-18
    Expected Goals Against/60
    Oilers 2.61
    League Average 2.36
    League Best (Wild) 1.95
    League Worst (Rangers) 2.8

    Thanks Padre!!!!!!

    How do you get those?

  38. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q,

    OEL and isn’t too bad, he really isn’t as good as you’ve tried to make him out to be

    What exactly have I made him out to be?

    What is your evidence that he is less than that?

  39. OilClog says:

    frjohnk: Taylor Hall
    16th overall, 28th overall
    $9.5M AAV with 2 NMC’s

    Heavy, heavy price to fix the D

    And it’s still not fixed

  40. texmex says:

    Anyone else worried about Tabolt and the streamlined chest protectors? He was bad up high last year.

    PS: If Talbots regression was due to having twins, then pietranglo is going to be placed on waivers after his wife gave birth to TRIPLETS!!!! ;p

  41. JimmyV1965 says:

    Taylor Hall on this team today would give the Oilers the best first line in the league and possibly the best second line in the league. I hate thinking about though and regurgitating it because life is too short and it just makes me angry.

  42. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: Taylor Hall
    16th overall, 28th overall
    $9.5M AAV with 2 NMC’s

    Heavy, heavy price to fix the D

    Oy.

  43. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q,

    But…what about your LHD-RHD theory (and Tocchet is a disciple of this as well)?

    They’re not optimal, but they’re very good.

    Hjalrmasson has played the right side more than left in his career.

    He was Keith’s RD for the Cup years.

  44. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Professor Q,

    OEL and isn’t too bad, he really isn’t as good as you’ve tried to make him out to be

    What exactly have I made him out to be?

    What is your evidence that he is less than that?

    I know Yost has also shown that Demers is actually good, with the caveat that he is just incredibly unlucky all the time.

    Which seems highly unlikely to be that repeatable.

    I think because you have him as a Top-Line RHD (or that he would be one for Edmonton, replacing Larsson, even without an OEL-level partner), which is what Florida signed him for that Summer, or at least a high quality 2RHD behind Ekblad (it did not work out that way).

    It’d have been nice to have Hall still. Most here would want Hall. I had mixed reactions. But Demers would not have saved that Edmonton D-Corps, and if he had played at his Florida level or continued his unlucky ways, it would have been even worse.

    I still think the Reinhart trade was much more negative for Edmonton.

  45. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jethro Tull: They are made up like last year’s Flames, but without a Johnny Gaudreau. We’ve learnt that it’s okay keeping the puck out of the net, but you have to score as well. We were polar opposite last year.

    Funny thing is I think one the fatal flaws for the Flames is Johnny Hockey. They don’t go anywhere if he’s their best player. Unlike a small guy like Patrick Kane, I think Gaudreau can get pushed out of games. Although he has good edgework, it’s not on the same level as Kane. As a result I don’t think he can dominate possession in the same way. I don’t think he had the same tenacity as a small guy like Brayden Point or the knack for being in the right spot defensively. Gaudreau reminds me of a better version of Eberle. Very useful piece but if he’s your best player I think your in trouble.

  46. who says:

    Professor Q: I know Yost has also shown that Demers is actually good, with the caveat that he is just incredibly unlucky all the time.

    Which seems highly unlikely to be that repeatable.

    I think because you have him as a Top-Line RHD (or that he would be one for Edmonton, replacing Larsson, even without an OEL-level partner), which is what Florida signed him for that Summer, or at least a high quality 2RHD behind Ekblad (it did not work out that way).

    It’d have been nice to have Hall still. Most here would want Hall. I had mixed reactions. But Demers would not have saved that Edmonton D-Corps, and if he had played at his Florida level or continued his unlucky ways, it would have been even worse.

    I still think the Reinhart trade was much more negative for Edmonton.

    Amen.
    The cost to acquire Larsson was high but people who suggest Demers would have been just as good are really reaching in my opinion.
    The Reinhart trade and the Lucic signing have been Chia’s two biggest missteps. And it’s not even close.

  47. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Thanks Padre!!!!!!

    How do you get those?

    Corsica. I looked at what the goalies faced and did the calculations.

  48. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q: I know Yost has also shown that Demers is actually good, with the caveat that he is just incredibly unlucky all the time.

    Which seems highly unlikely to be that repeatable.

    I think because you have him as a Top-Line RHD (or that he would be one for Edmonton, replacing Larsson, even without an OEL-level partner), which is what Florida signed him for that Summer, or at least a high quality 2RHD behind Ekblad (it did not work out that way).

    It’d have been nice to have Hall still. Most here would want Hall. I had mixed reactions. But Demers would not have saved that Edmonton D-Corps, and if he had played at his Florida level or continued his unlucky ways, it would have been even worse.

    I still think the Reinhart trade was much more negative for Edmonton.

    I never had Demers as better than Larsson.

    I had Demers as the best RHD FA in 15/16.

    I always had Demers as a 2/3. Can be 2nd best Dman on a top pair and can be the best Dman on a 2nd pair.

    I had Hall + Demers > Lucic + Larsson due to spread between the forwards.

    I always had Larsson > Demers

  49. Georges says:

    Why does Nurse have a DFF% of 40.2 vs. elites?

  50. frjohnk says:

    OilClog: And it’s still not fixed

    Well, I think it’s better. But would not call it elite. Possibility is there in the future if Bouchard is as good as we hope he can be.

    -I believe our D are around the average mark in transitioning the puck to the forwards.

    -Our D without McDavid whether it be GF% or DFF% could use some improvement, as most D without McDavid are sinking.

    If we are looking at the last 3 years, much of the against numbers are in the same ballpark. Except that I’m 16-17, Talbot stood on his head, so the save % and goals against were very good that year.

  51. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    Why does Nurse have a DFF% of 40.2 vs. elites?

    Good catch.

    I think LT mixed up DFF/60 and DFF% for a Nurse and Benning.

    Happily both show better, Nurse way better.

    I have:
    vs Elite Forwards
    Klefbom 32% TOI 52.4% DFF
    Benning 25% TOI 51.9% DFF
    Nurse 35% TOI 49.0% DFF
    Larsson 35% TOI 48.8% DFF
    Russell 31% TOI 45.4% DFF
    Sekera 19% TOI 36.0% DFF
    Beare 29% TOI 35.3% DFF

  52. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: Corsica. I looked at what the goalies faced and did the calculations.

    I have missed the “shots faced” option until you just pointed it out.

    I’m so smart.

    SMRT

  53. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q,

    Here is my conclusion on Demers when I did my “RHD search” series in 2016:


    We cannot say that Demers has a track record of playing 1st pairing D and doing well.

    We can say that he has a record of playing second pairing D and doing very well and he may be ready to take on 1st pairing.

    Given his results over the last two years with the top two lines and checking lines for Dallas I would be comfortable with Demers as the Oilers 1RD.

    I do not think slotting Demers at 1RD on the Oilers would be slotting him above his established NHL ability given what we have seen in his results above.

    Its not a slam dunk, but a confident bet given what we see in this post.

    If Demers plays for the Oilers he will have a significantly better partner than either Oduya or Benn as well.

    The fact that you can get him for only money and not give up an asset is massive advantage in targeting Demers and may outweigh the negative of him not having a 1st pairing history.

    I think that stands up very well:

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2016/04/oiler-right-shot-dman-search-1-jason.html

    Also,

    I didn’t have a “conclusions” area in my Larsson post, but made a series of them.

    This is near the end:

    Remember that these are relative metrics, so players on bad teams can get a boost and players on deep teams can get punished a bit, but for the most part they are pretty informative.

    This is why Chiarelli may have it right that Larsson is a good option for 1RD and being signed to a nice $4.166MM/yr contract over the next 5 years is a good thing.

    Not sure it makes him worth Hall, but it makes me feel a little better.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2016/07/oilers-right-hand-dman-search-concluded.html

  54. Yeti says:

    Wonder Llama: I often pick up a Coffee Crisp when visiting the motherland but I’d forgotten about the Cuban Llunch chocolate bar. A quick google image search reminds me of Wig Wag, Eat-More, Bar Six, and Sweet Marie. And that stupid chunk of MacIntosh’s “creamy” toffee in the red package. It sucked but it llasted forever (there’s gotta be an Oilers metaphor in there somewhere).

    Wig Wag? Is that like a Curly Wurly?

  55. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q,

    I know Yost has also shown that Demers is actually good, with the caveat that he is just incredibly unlucky all the time.

    Which seems highly unlikely to be that repeatable.

    Here’s Demers’ Relative Teammate CF% and Relative Teammate GF% for the last 4 years.

    He played 2nd pair in the first two years.

    3rd year was weird as FLA ran all top 6 Dmen with the same TOI vs Elite and he was also mostly paired with Rookie Matheson quite a bit and their RelGF% was awful. He was good with Yandle.

    4th year was 1st pair with OEL (OEL’s results took a huge jump with Demers but that speaks more to Hjarlmasson starting hurt and playing poor)

    Player Season RelT CF%
    Jason Demers 14/15 4.49
    Jason Demers 15/16 2.64
    Jason Demers 16/17 -2.06
    Jason Demers 17/18 4.26

    Player Season RelT GF%
    Jason Demers 14/15 -0.44
    Jason Demers 15/16 4.04
    Jason Demers 16/17 -2.13
    Jason Demers 17/18 5.05

    The off year in FLA is obvious and playing with a rookie can do that. Funnily enough his results are pretty close to Ekblad’s that year, but everyone who pointed at his FLA results as a reason that he’s not good never responded about when I asked about Ekblad. (you didn’t do this, others did)

    One poster pointed at his results with FLA and declared him “not a NHLer” . True story.

  56. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Yeti: Wig Wag? Is that like a Curly Wurly?

    A caramel bar that was made in a criss-cross pattern.

    Tasty but they would stick to your teeth something fierce.

    The only thing that stuck worse to my teeth were Mackintosh’s toffee.

  57. Lowetide says:

    A quick note, I transcribed Nurse’s DFF percentage incorrectly, have fixed it in the graph. He looks much better now, apologies for the error. My thanks to WG for catching it.

  58. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Arbitrator gives Trouba $5.5MM

    Pete might have trouble signing Nurse lower than $4.0

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide:
    A quick note, I transcribed Nurse’s DFF percentage incorrectly, have fixed it in the graph. He looks much better now, apologies for the error. My thanks to WG for catching it.

    It was Georges who “caught it”

    I feel bad that I didn’t double check your numbers previously.

  60. SwedishPoster says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Professor Q,

    I know Yost has also shown that Demers is actually good, with the caveat that he is just incredibly unlucky all the time.


    Which seems highly unlikely to be that repeatable.

    Here’s Demers’ Relative Teammate CF% and Relative Teammate GF% for the last 4 years.

    He played 2nd pair in the first two years.

    3rd year was weird as FLA ran all top 6 Dmen with the same TOI vs Elite and he was also mostly paired with Rookie Matheson quite a bit and their RelGF% was awful.He was good with Yandle.

    4th year was 1st pair with OEL (OEL’s results took a huge jump with Demers but that speaks more to Hjarlmasson starting hurt and playing poor)

    PlayerSeasonRelT CF%
    Jason Demers14/154.49
    Jason Demers15/162.64
    Jason Demers16/17-2.06
    Jason Demers17/184.26

    PlayerSeasonRelT GF%
    Jason Demers14/15-0.44
    Jason Demers15/164.04
    Jason Demers16/17-2.13
    Jason Demers17/185.05

    The off year in FLA is obvious and playing with a rookie can do that.Funnily enough his results are pretty close to Ekblad’s that year, but everyone who pointed at his FLA results as a reason that he’s not good never responded about when I asked about Ekblad.(you didn’t do this, others did)

    One poster pointed at his results with FLA and declared him “not a NHLer” .True story.

    Also OEL was really off for the first half of the season, didn’t play close to his usual level(thus the struggles with Hjalmarsson) . Losing your mother can do that.

  61. BONE207 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Its not a slam dunk, but a confident bet given what we see in this post.

    Ya…these past couple of summers are full of confident bets. Between sophomore centres, young D, college wingers & free agent signings, I don’t know how to feel confident. I just drink my beer, grab my ass & close my eyes. Maybe in a couple of years we can confidently enjoy the ride…😉

  62. Wilde says:

    dustrock: We’ll reassess before training camp but who do you pick for the 3 Pacific playoff spots?

    WIN
    NSH
    STL

    SJS
    VGK
    ARI

    LA
    DAL

    The problem with CGY is they downgraded their roster and hired a HC who has had the exact same problems as GG had, but for longer. The only worse guy they could have hired for their problem would be Darryl Sutter. Their success case Is based on a Hamonic rebound, Backlund regression and good goaltending. That doesn’t sound good at all.

    VGK has the strongest ‘returning’ roster. I don’t know if you can bet on any team in the division to hit 100 points, even, but they’re probably a decent bet based on which Fleury returns. Neal and Perron were overrated parts of their success, but the Tatar acquisition and price paid makes me think the Knights might actually not be in great hands going forward in regards to proper roster turnover.

    The theme of the Pacific is mediocre-to-poor forward groups without strong defencemen lineups behind them. SJS has the closest to a complete forward group, though, and because I rate defensemen individually and then pile them together(for lack of ability not because I think that’s a great process), I don’t know what the interaction will be between Ryan and Burns for a full(er) season will be. It honestly just looks like Ryan’s an insanely underrated player. So the Sharks have a F group that’s complete if not stellar, two good pairings, and Martin Jones. That’s good enough to be the best in the Pacific. Yikes.

    Arizona just looks like they straight up have a better pile of defensemen and goaltending than the other teams and have some pretty good tickets up front to hit the requisite amount of goals. It seems like Dylan Strome is kind of just a meme because of the way the 2015 draft shook out but he’s a really, really potent scoring prospect if he gets PP1 time. Chychrun’s trajectory is underreported imo. He wasn’t bad in his first year as a D+1 Dman, and then he actually *added* value as a 20 year old defenseman in 17-18. This is an upper-echelon potential top pairing type of trajectory. People talk about McAvoy as a mid-first robbery in 2016 but Jakob Chychrun is right there.

    Edmonton’s chances are a series of gambles that I’ve already talked about on the series of tubes.

  63. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I really like Arizona’s D. I don’t rate their forward corpse though.

  64. Wonder Llama says:

    Woodguy v2.0: A caramel bar that was made in a criss-cross pattern.

    Tasty but they would stick to your teeth something fierce.

    The only thing that stuck worse to my teeth were Mackintosh’s toffee.

    Exactly correct. They llooked cooler than they tasted.

  65. Yeti says:

    Woodguy v2.0: A caramel bar that was made in a criss-cross pattern.

    Tasty but they would stick to your teeth something fierce.

    The only thing that stuck worse to my teeth were Mackintosh’s toffee.

    Right! I haven’t had one of those for 30 years.
    The one I remember as a serious tooth-destroyer was a Wham bar: this chewy strawberry slab that soon had your entire mouth all roped up in its gooey strands. There was also a neon green version with sour black spots called a Gorgon (or something like that). My asshat brother was addicted to those things and I distinctly remember him stealing money out of my piggy bank to fund his habit.

  66. rickithebear says:

    Luck?

    Is 70,s show speak.

    Demers was a great HD dman under Yawney.

    Now he sucks!

    His HD style of play has regressed.

    Yeah let’s exclude 2/3 of dmen def mechanism data that shows he sucks.

    Say his poor final results are luck.

    Love to see you at uni.
    In your thesis what is the critical determining factor for Demers results.
    WG: Luck.
    Did you say luck?
    WG: Yes.

  67. Lowetide says:

    Georges:
    Why does Nurse have a DFF% of 40.2 vs. elites?

    Fixed and noted, and I thank you.

  68. BONE207 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    rickithebear,

    Maybe at that whiskey/hall party we discussed for August, we can also hook up a home projection unit & compare notes. Let’s finalize this argument or validate the data once & for all. After you sober up, you can then present the findings to the Oilers & establish a bona fide analytics dept. Sound fun???

  69. Georges says:

    Lowetide: Fixed and noted, and I thank you.

    No worries. I was about to post: LT I can’t believe you have Nurse and Benning as second pair when the primary guy on that pairing has a DFF of 40.2. Then I thought the question that I posted.

  70. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks: It’s a damn sight better than starting with the Cup Final D core they had in 06 and systematically gutting the depth chart for a decade straight.

    And again, Chia doesn’t have to trade for Larsson if Tambellini simply drafts him in the first place.

    Tambellini had Petry and Schultz. Petry is in the ball park of Larsson.

  71. Richard S.S. says:

    defmn,

    Bonuses must count because it cannot be guaranteed to not be earned. Without an all star-ish season bonuses rarely earn their value, but full bonuses get earned by some. Bonuses must count when setting the Roster for the Season at Game One.

  72. godot10 says:

    Jethro Tull: Hall wasn’t even close to being a Hart winner when traded. He was very good, yes. But not a Hart winner. Not even Team Canada, though he should have been.

    But you’re right. Keep Hall, sign Demers would have been better. Heck, we might have been celebrating back to back Stanleys.

    Demers has had a few homes in the last few years. Any apparent reason he can’t get the honey contract?

    Hall’s season under Krueger was an exceptional season, argubably as good as the one he just had.

  73. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde: WIN
    NSH
    STL

    SJS
    VGK
    ARI

    LA
    DAL

    The problem with CGY is they downgraded their roster and hired a HC who has had the exact same problems as GG had, but for longer. The only worse guy they could have hired for their problem would be Darryl Sutter. Their success case Is based on a Hamonic rebound, Backlund regression and good goaltending. That doesn’t sound good at all.

    VGK has the strongest ‘returning’ roster. I don’t know if you can bet on any team in the division to hit 100 points, even, but they’re probably a decent bet based on which Fleury returns. Neal and Perron were overrated parts of their success, but the Tatar acquisition and price paid makes me think the Knights might actually not be in great hands going forward in regards to proper roster turnover.

    The theme of the Pacific is mediocre-to-poor forward groups without strong defencemen lineups behind them. SJS has the closest to a complete forward group, though, and because I rate defensemen individually and then pile them together(for lack of ability not because I think that’s a great process), I don’t know what the interaction will be between Ryan and Burns for a full(er) season will be. It honestly just looks like Ryan’s an insanely underrated player. So the Sharks have a F group that’s complete if not stellar, two good pairings, and Martin Jones. That’s good enough to be the best in the Pacific. Yikes.

    Arizona just looks like they straight up have a better pile of defensemen and goaltending than the other teams and have some pretty good tickets up front to hit the requisite amount of goals. It seems like Dylan Strome is kind of just a meme because of the way the 2015 draft shook out but he’s a really, really potent scoring prospect if he gets PP1 time. Chychrun’s trajectory is underreported imo. He wasn’t bad in his first year as a D+1 Dman, and then he actually *added* value as a 20 year old defenseman in 17-18. This is an upper-echelon potential top pairing type of trajectory. People talk about McAvoy as a mid-first robbery in 2016 but Jakob Chychrun is right there.

    Edmonton’s chances are a series of gambles that I’ve already talked about on the series of tubes.

    I think most people would agree with your top three in the Central. Other than Vancouver, I find it beyond challenging to slot the Pacific. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if it went:

    Ari
    Edm
    Cal
    LA
    SJ
    Ana
    Veg

    Other than Vancouver, this is the reverse order of finish from last year. This is not how I rank them, but IMO it’s totally plausible. I don’t recall the division ever being this difficult to rank. I expect the gap between 1-7 to be close. Should make for an exciting race.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    When we talk about readily tradeable assets, those assets don’t bring Cap Relief being young, cheap or a Draft Pick.It’s extremely likely that the Oilers will not be trading anyone unless something really good falls in their lap.Other than signing Darnell Nurse sometime over the next 75 days, I can’t see the Oilers doing much else.

    Being Cap compliant for Game One is easy.Jesse Puljujarvi and his $ 3.425 Million Cap Hit does’t make the Team for Game One.Someone else does, much, much cheaper.Game Two, the someone else much, much cheaper gets sent down and Jesse Puljujarvi get called up because the Oilers have all Season to work on being Cap compliant at that time.

    In reality, Puljujarvi counts $925K against the cap, not $3.425M.

    His potential performance bonuses don’t truly count against the cap as, for cap compliance, the team can go over the cap with respect to potential performance bonuses by 7.5%.

    Of course, we wouldn’t have wanted to do that with a player like McDavid who is likely to vest all his bonuses (and did) and then force a cap penalty for next year.

    A reasonable bonus cushion for Jesse is probably around $1M.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    If we’re predicting who’s most likely to sit (vs. who should) I still feel like Benning is the answer.

    His results improved over the course of the year, but his TOI actually went down. 17:17 on the year, 16:19 after Jan 1, 15:08 after Mar 1. Russell was 19:04/19:40/19:32.

    Hopefully Benning plays well and McLellan surprises us, but as of now I see Russell >> Benning in the coaches eyes.

    Edit: maybe the new assistants have a say

    A material key to this season, for me, is Benning earning the 2RD spot and keeping it.

    We know that Kris Russell is not good enough on the right side to play 2RD and, if he is there for a material portion of the year, well, chances are the year is not going well.

    Unfortunately, as you say and as we know, the coaching staff, well at least the head coach, values Kris Russell – I would say, over-values Kris Russell.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    commonfan29: Is anyone else interested in seeing Russell on the wing a bit this pre-season?

    No even a tiny little bit.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Arbitrator gives Trouba $5.5MM

    Pete might have trouble signing Nurse lower than $4.0

    Troubal > Nurse as this point and this is Trouba’s third contract.

    His second contract was under $2.5M I believe, wasn’t it?

    I don’t see Trouba or Dumba as a good comparable.

    Montour, on the other hand….

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    defmn,

    Bonuses must count because it cannot be guaranteed to not be earned.Without an all star-ish season bonuses rarely earn their value, but full bonuses get earned by some.Bonuses must count when setting the Roster for the Season at Game One.

    This is not true. Teams can go over the cap for potential performance bonuses by 7.5% – you spoke about moving Jesse and his $3M plus cap hit for cap compliance. He has a $925K cap hit for compliance.

    Jesse is unlikely to vest most of his bonuses. A $1M cushion is reasonable (but not even necessary for cap compliance).

  79. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965,

    The hardest part of it is the goaltending, and not just because it’s always the hardest part.

    These are the starters for those teams:

    Gibson
    Raanta

    Quick
    Talbot
    Jones
    Fleury

    Smith

    It’s pretty easy to paint the outsider here, but after that you’ve got guys that are the closest to guaranteed to be good as possible, and then another group of guys that absolutely have it in them to be the best goalie in the division.

    – Gibson was the very best goaltender in the league in the regular season last year imo. Classic Vezina robbery based on total wins.

    – Raanta basically reverse Darling’d.

    – Quick took a team that should have probably been about +15-20 GD to over 30, and won Kopitar the Selke. (Along with the cousin of voter-fatigue, voter-intertia taking it from Couturier)

    – Fleury may or may not be A Table Hockey Goalie

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think Smith is a fine starting goalie when he’s healthy.

    The flames were sunk when due to the inevitable 25 game injury.

    I see no reason to think anything will change this coming season.

  81. Bank Shot says:

    Arizona.

    I won’t believe it until I see it.

    You know who else had as much or more injury troubles as Arizona?

    Anaheim.

    And they finished with 101 points. They didn’t have one player on their team play 82 games last season. Missed 30 games of Getzlaf.

    I think Anaheim and LA will be the class of the division. Both have good star power as well as depth.
    I think all the rest are pretty hit or miss. They could end up anywhere except Vancouver who will be the worst.

  82. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Troubal > Nurse as this point and this is Trouba’s third contract.

    His second contract was under $2.5M I believe, wasn’t it?

    I don’t see Trouba or Dumba as a good comparable.

    Montour, on the other hand….

    Trouba’s bridge was 2 years with a $3 million AAV, $2.5 million in the first year, $3.5 million in the 2nd year. The cap has gone up since then. So Nurse’s bridge should come in about 2 years and $3.5 million AAV.

    3rd pairing D, like Miller are signing long term in the high $3 million. Top 4 guys like Dumba just signed for $6 million long term.

    I think Trouba wants to test the open market next summer. He can probably get $9 million on the open market next summer. Toronto, Detroit, Islanders, Blackhawks, Flames….a lot of teams will be desparate.

  83. godot10 says:

    godot10: Trouba’s bridge was 2 years with a $3 million AAV, $2.5 million in the first year, $3.5 million in the 2nd year.The cap has gone up since then.So Nurse’s bridge should come in about 2 years and $3.5 million AAV.

    3rd pairing D, like Miller are signing long term in the high $3 million.Top 4 guys like Dumba just signed for$6 million long term.

    I think Trouba wants to test the open market next summer.He can probably get $9 million on the open market next summer.Toronto, Detroit, Islanders, Blackhawks, Flames….a lot of teams will be desparate.

    Trouba had to sit out to start the season to get it, but with Chiarelli and McLellan on the hotseat to start the season, and the killer opening 10 games, Nurse has the upper hand.

    I still half expect an offer sheet.

  84. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I think Smith is a fine starting goalie when he’s healthy.

    The flames were sunk when due to the inevitable 25 game injury.

    I see no reason to think anything will change this coming season.

    Their hot-shot prospects in the net all took a step backwards last year too. Mind ya, I guess that can change this year.

  85. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bank Shot:
    Arizona.

    I won’t believe it until I see it.

    You know who else had as much or more injury troubles as Arizona?

    Anaheim.

    And they finished with 101 points. They didn’t have one player on their team play 82 games last season. Missed 30 games of Getzlaf.

    I think Anaheim and LA will be the class of the division. Both have good star power as well as depth.
    I think all the rest are pretty hit or miss. They could end up anywhere except Vancouver who will be the worst.

    Interesting. I don’t like the Ducks at all this year. They’re obviously getting older at forward and rely way too much on Getzlaf. When he hits the wall, and it might not be this year, I think they’re sunk.

  86. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    dustrock:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I really like Arizona’s D. I don’t rate their forward corpse though.

    Yeah, that’s their weak spot.

    That said:

    1) They’ve upgraded the C position compared to last year. Stepan can win his minutes at 1C. Perlinni-Stepan-Keller are good 1st line.

    Galchenyuk is an upgrade on Dvork, who probably slides from 2C to 3C. Not sure where they play Hinostroza, but he could be 3C or top 6 wing.

    Strome might be ready. Grabner can score, but I’m not a fan. Merkley was 1pt/gm in the AHL last year and might contribute this year.

    2) From Feb 1 on they scored 2.5 G/60 5v5 which was 13th in the league for that time span.

    3) You only have to score more than they other guy and I don’t think they’ll give up much

  87. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear:
    Luck?

    Is 70,s show speak.

    Demers was a great HD dman under Yawney.

    Now he sucks!

    His HD style of play has regressed.

    Yeah let’s exclude 2/3 of dmen def mechanism data that shows he sucks.

    Say his poor final results are luck.

    Love to see you at uni.In your thesis what is the critical determining factor for Demers results.
    WG: Luck.
    Did you say luck?
    WG: Yes.

    I didn’t mention luck.

  88. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    So if Benning earns and keeps a 2RD spot how big of a value contract does he bring over the next two years?

    I like the player and hope he makes this step. Big deal for the team if he grabs it.

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    JimmyV1965,

    The hardest part of it is the goaltending, and not just because it’s always the hardest part.

    These are the starters for those teams:

    Gibson
    Raanta

    Quick
    Talbot
    Jones
    Fleury

    Smith

    It’s pretty easy to paint the outsider here, but after that you’ve got guys that are the closest to guaranteed to be good as possible, and then another group of guys that absolutely have it in them to be the best goalie in the division.

    – Gibson was the very best goaltender in the league in the regular season last year imo. Classic Vezina robbery based on total wins.

    – Raanta basically reverse Darling’d.

    – Quick took a team that should have probably been about +15-20 GD to over 30, and won Kopitar the Selke. (Along with the cousin of voter-fatigue, voter-intertia taking it from Couturier)

    – Fleury may or may not be A Table Hockey Goalie

    I have Raanta above Gibson, but its close.

    I also have Jones over Talbot.

    I’ve been incorportating Vollman’s “Quality Starts Percentage” (QSP) metric along with GSAA/100 for evaluation goalies.

    Here’s the list of the top 20 QSP from 15-16 to 17-18 (minimum 1000 minutes played)

    Goalie Season Quality Starts %
    Carter Hutton 17/18 0.731
    Antti Raanta 17/18 0.696
    Antti Raanta 16/17 0.692
    Corey Crawford 15/16 0.69
    Cory Schneider 15/16 0.69
    Brian Elliott 15/16 0.684
    Philipp Grubauer 16/17 0.684
    Philipp Grubauer 17/18 0.679
    Pekka Rinne 17/18 0.678
    Marc-Andre Fleury 17/18 0.674
    Jimmy Howard 16/17 0.667
    Roberto Luongo 17/18 0.667
    Antti Raanta 15/16 0.667
    Sergei Bobrovsky 16/17 0.651
    John Gibson 17/18 0.65
    Frederik Andersen 15/16 0.649
    Braden Holtby 15/16 0.636
    Al Montoya 15/16 0.636

    Raanta is there for all 3 seasons. Crazy. Gibson once.

    Edit: Lou being on there at 38 is awesome. All time great goalie.

  90. Jeffy Jeff says:

    Hey champ, I couldn’t manage to get past the first paragraph.

    I live in Calgary and am a sales rep for a local distributor and have sold Pop Shoppe for over 10 years and will be bringing in Cuban Lunch soon.

    Maybe with this new found knowledge you can go to Oilers practice and teach some of the guys to skate with their heads up as that is the most importantly rule about hockey!

    Thanks for helping pass the time with no hockey in the summer!

    Signed,

    Oil fan in C-Town

  91. Melvis says:

    Now I’m wondering about the Josh Morrissey ask.

  92. Richard S.S. says:

    1) Keep Hall, sign Demers for 1RD. I’m pretty sure you don’t make the playoffs, as Klefbom and Larsson really made a difference. Cap Issues would most likely have started that season.

    2) Peter Chiarelli did not trade Petry, someone else did. If Peter had the opportunity to decide, I’m positive he keeps him long term. But that might change history and the Draft.

    3) Discussing past issues may stroke someone’s ego, but exactly what happened then caused the McDavid windfall. Change what happened then and no McDavid, which is not acceptable.

    4) Both Bouchard and Bear look to be better than Benning, perhaps very soon. They might be better than Larsson. One might be the #1D the Oilers want and need.

  93. Bank Shot says:

    JimmyV1965: Interesting. I don’t like the Ducks at all this year. They’re obviously getting older at forward and rely way too much on Getzlaf. When he hits the wall, and it might not be this year, I think they’re sunk.

    They missed Getzlaf 26 games last season and finished with 101 points. The games Getzlaf did play he was over a point per game. Rakell had 69 points. A good assortment of 40 point forwards. Good d and goaltending.

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot:
    Arizona.

    I won’t believe it until I see it.

    You know who else had as much or more injury troubles as Arizona?

    Anaheim.

    And they finished with 101 points. They didn’t have one player on their team play 82 games last season. Missed 30 games of Getzlaf.

    I think Anaheim and LA will be the class of the division. Both have good star power as well as depth.
    I think all the rest are pretty hit or miss. They could end up anywhere except Vancouver who will be the worst.

    3 things:

    1) ANA had injuries, but they ARI lost their starter.

    Goalies injuries can sink a team.

    Player Sv%
    ANTTI RAANTA 93.02
    DARCY KUEMPER 89.91
    SCOTT WEDGEWOOD 89.27
    ADIN HILL 89.23
    LOUIS DOMINGUE 85.57

    The 4 goalies under Raanta played in 41 of ARI’s games last year.

    Conversely, ANA had decent goalie health. Gibson is the goods and a backup role seems to agree with Miller (he played in 27 games last year)

    Player Sv%
    JOHN GIBSON 92.58
    RYAN MILLER 92.51
    RETO BERRA 92.63

    2) ARI had Dcorps injury trouble, ANA didn’t
    The next place where its tough to replace for injuries is the Dcorps. Hjarlmasson, Chychrun are two of their top 4 and they were gone or not effective for at least 50% of the season.

    3) ANA has a good forward core to overcome some injuries. Rackell and Kase are very good. Cogliano, Silferberg, Hendrique (after the trade), Perry, Ritchie. These are all good Actual NHL players so they have the depth to overcome injuries.

    Kesler’s been a drag for over 2 years now. Having him injured might actually help the team. Missing Getzlaf is a huge hole, no question but he was still 6th on ANA in total 5v5 TOI for the year.

    So while the statement “ANA had injury problems too” is true, ANA’s injuries were mostly in the forward corps and they are deep enough to cover there.

    I posit that if ANA lost Gibson, Fowler and Mason for half the season I think the result would have been much different.

  95. Melvis says:

    I couldn’t get past “I live in Calgary…”, but its extremely tempting.

  96. Lowetide says:

    Jeffy Jeff:
    Hey champ, I couldn’t manage to get past the first paragraph.

    I live in Calgary and am a sales rep for a local distributor and have sold Pop Shoppe for over 10 years and will be bringing in Cuban Lunch soon.

    Maybe with this new found knowledge you can go to Oilers practice and teach some of the guys to skate with their heads up as that is the most importantly rule about hockey!

    Thanks for helping pass the time with no hockey in the summer!

    Signed,

    Oil fan in C-Town

    Lol. Do you sell it up here? I honestly haven’t seen Pop Shoppe in forever.

  97. Melvis says:

    Lowetide,

    Your tolerance for what I’ve interpreted as passive/aggressive slag is truly amazing. Clap Clap

  98. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    1)I agree Arizona should be improved with having their starter for the whole season next year.

    2) Ducks also had injury trouble on D. They missed two top four defencemen in Lindholm and Vatanen for the start of the season. They missed Fowler late. They had injuries to Bieksa and Beauchemin as well which didn’t hurt them as much, but still tempted depth.

    Now they didn’t lose anyone for half a year, but Hjarlmasson doesn’t have the impact of a Lindholm or Fowler IMO, and Chychrun was a somewhat minor loss.

    3. Yeah the Ducks do have good forward depth. When you said Perlini-Stepan-Keller was a good first line I disagree. Worst first line in the division outside of Vancouver IMO.

    If everything breaks right for Arizona maybe they have a shot at the playoffs, but they have to make up 31 points on the Ducks, and we know that picking up an extra 25-30 points is a pretty rare feat.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Their hot-shot prospects in the net all took a step backwards last year too. Mind ya, I guess that can change this year.

    One of my partners, an avid fan and very knowledgeable (would fit in well in this type of community) is very uncomfortable with their back-ups and wants them to look at Steve Mason.

  100. ashley says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour:
    I recall my first McDonalds hamburger in Regina, around Albert Street maybe? Used to love to go to Riders practices with my uncle who worked for CN. On occasional days off we’d check out the Riders then A&W or when it opened, McDonalds.

    Also had my first ever taco at a small amusement park, golf driving range on the then south end of the city – can’t recall the name or location.

    My uncle taught me how to golf, about the NASA space program, football, baseball (he was for unclear reasons a Cincinnati Reds fan) and even politics around the time of Watergate. Sadly lost him to bladder cancer months after he retired at 65. What a shame, a great guy he was. We had moved with my dad who was in the army from Regina to Edmonton in ‘66 but as my parents family and friends were all still there they took my back for summer vacation every year til I turned 13. More to get me out of the house I imagine but I had a great time with my uncle and grandparents and all my summer pals around Grey Street.

    Watched the first moon landing at a friend of the families farm near Wilcox too!

    Lot of firsts for me in Regina & Saskatchewan. Even my first kiss!

    Yes, first McDonald’s in Reg was on South Albert, next to A&W where they still served food on a tray at your car like a drive-in theatre. You just sat there and they brought it out to you and hung it on your partially rolled down window.

    Across the street was Bi-Rite drug store (now rexall I think) and Geno’s. Those were the days when milk and bread were still delivered to your house by men who had keys to get in (if you actually locked your door), when Army and Navy was still king.

    The amusement park in the South….Kiddy Land maybe? I don’t remember a golf range there. There was also Wild Slides, but that was a different location and different era.

    In Regina I don’t think it was pop shoppe, but rather Pic-A-Pop.

    There was a Pats game at Exhibition stadium in the mid-70’s that I didn’t attend but I remember the news. It was wild with Regina police escorting teams out of the building. Tiger Williams was playing for the Broncos and went into the stands with some other players to fight spectators. That is a Regina story, through and through.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    OriginalPouzar,

    So if Benning earns and keeps a 2RD spot how big of a value contract does he bring over the next two years?

    I like the player and hope he makes this step. Big deal for the team if he grabs it.

    If he can play solid minutes and produce 25-30 points, its a fantastic contract.

    Most importantly, it would fill one of the biggest holes on the roster and it would allow us to slow-play both Bouchard and Bear even more.

    Here is hoping he (1) stays healthy and (2) runs with the opportunity.

    I’m cautious though as I was confident he would be able to do just that last year and he struggled to start the year and had an uneven season despite solid metrics (in my opinion).

  102. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    1)I agree Arizona should be improved with having their starter for the whole season next year.

    2) Ducks also had injury trouble on D. They missed two top four defencemen in Lindholm and Vatanen for the start of the season. They missed Fowler late. They had injuries to Bieksa and Beauchemin as well which didn’t hurt them as much, but still tempted depth.

    Now they didn’t lose anyone for half a year, but Hjarlmasson doesn’t have the impact of a Lindholm or Fowler IMO, and Chychrun was a somewhat minor loss.

    3. Yeah the Ducks do have good forward depth. When you said Perlini-Stepan-Keller was a good first line I disagree. Worst first line in the division outside of Vancouver IMO.

    If everything breaks right for Arizona maybe they have a shot at the playoffs, but they have to make up 31 points on the Ducks, and we know that picking up an extra 25-30 points is a pretty rare feat.

    I think you under estimate Chychrun. His return did more for the team than Hjarlmasson. He’s really good and he’s top 4.

    It didn’t register that Fowler or Lindholm missed much time as they are 3rd and 4th in total 5v5 TOI last year for ANA, but I guess if Lindholm isn’t 1st he missed time. Both of those players played 1200 minutes each so they got in a good amount of time.

    I meant Panik and not Perlini, sorry.

    They started playing together near the end of the season and put up 53.1% CF and ran hot for a 64.7%GF (181 minutes)

  103. rickithebear says:

    godot10: Tambellini had Petry and Schultz.Petry is in the ball park of Larsson.

    What world?

    Oh that is right it is not the dmen who establish gaolie save% avg to perform around with clear charted shot success numbers.

    It is luck!

    You cannot measure a goalies performance relative to the avg established .

    It is luck!

    You can not differentiate expected Corsi count based on
    1. Bench change:
    1a. With pocession
    1b. Without pocession

    2. NZ transition
    2a. Facing NZ trap
    2b. Not facing NZ trap

    3. Zone entry
    3a. Press blue with NZT
    3b. Press blue without NZT
    3c. Do not press blue with NZT
    3d. Do not press blue without NZT

    4. HD entry
    4a. Collapse to HD/LD edge engage
    4b. Collapse to HD/LD edge let cycle outside
    4c. Do not collapse engage
    4d. Do not collapse let cycle outside.

    5. Closed Corsi path affect
    5a. Blocks
    5b. Misses
    5c. Closed shots

    6. Deflection
    6a. Opp shot
    6b. Own shot

    7. Zone FO
    7a. OZ win
    7b. OZ loss
    7c. NZ win
    7d. NZ loss
    7e. DZ win
    7f. DZ loss

    None of these have clear league avg that can establish the normal corsi +/- for a player based on situation expected Corsi exclusion

    It is luck.

  104. Melvis says:

    BONE207,

    As for that whiskey partay in August, I heard a rumour Woodguy rented a garage in a box and some bush property on a bison ranch out to Mundare or somewhere. BYOB. Bring your own biffy.

  105. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    BONE207,

    As for that whiskey partay in August, I heard a rumour Woodguy rented a garage in a box and some bush property on a bison ranchout to Mundare or somewhere. BYOB. Bring your own biffy.

    I’ve decided against renting a Hall.

    I am sorry.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:

    4) Both Bouchard and Bear look to be better than Benning, perhaps very soon.They might be better than Larsson.One might be the #1D the Oilers want and need.

    Bouchard, yes, however, in my opinion, I don’t think its reasonable to expect Bear to be more that a 3rd pairing PP specialist. I hope I’m wrong and his ceiling is top 4 but I’m not going to expect that. Nothing wrong with a poor man’s Tyson Barrie given where he was drafted.

  107. Oz says:

    Bag of Pucks: Woodguy v2.0: And it only took him 4 offseasons and trading a Hart winner to do it!

    It’s a damn sight better than starting with the Cup Final D core they had in 06 and systematically gutting the depth chart for a decade straight.

    And again, Chia doesn’t have to trade for Larsson if Tambellini simply drafts him in the first place.

    I am coming in late on this discussion, but WG we had such a long way to go to turn the ship around. I am strongly of the opinion that our team should be built starting in goal, then defense, centers and and wingers. Since BN/PC arrived they have improved goaltending, definitely improved the defense , got lucky in the draft, traded TH who has blossomed in a new environment, and I expect a better season from Lucic. If Todd M would use him as a 3rd line winger and 2nd PP net front presence he has enough speed straight ahead, and whatever ailed him physically/mentally is solved he will dominate again.
    Still learning to post on this forum

  108. rickithebear says:

    16-17:
    1. HD sys coach
    T Mac ran HD sys

    2. Top 10 HD goalie
    Talbot top 5 since start of career.

    3. 3+ top 60 HD dmen
    Larsson Top 10
    Sekera Top 15 vs 2nd comp
    Benning Top 70 3rd comp
    Russell Elite 0% Corsi ( matches d partner HD rank)

    4. Top 8 125 fwd (16g 39p) Team
    Mcdavid 2.17 125 fwd
    Drai 1.89
    Maroon 1.43
    Lucic 1.37
    Eberle 1.27
    RNH 1.12
    Letestu .96

    5. +ve goal dif special teams.

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot,

    If everything breaks right for Arizona maybe they have a shot at the playoffs, but they have to make up 31 points on the Ducks, and we know that picking up an extra 25-30 points is a pretty rare feat.

    Feb 1 – end of season

    ANA 30 gp 41pts 0.683pts%
    ARI 31gp 40pts 0.645pts%

    Might be close.

  110. rickithebear says:

    17-18:
    1. HD sys coach
    Tmac NO! Abandoned HD for Eakins Perimeter pressure.

    2. Top HD goalie Talbot +.010

    3. Top 30 HD dmen
    Larsson Top 10
    Sekera injured and HD
    Benning fringe top 60

    4. Top 8 125 fwds
    Mcdavid 2.65
    Draisaitl 1.67
    RNH 1.38
    Strome .85

    5. +ve goal diff special teams
    God NO!

  111. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear,

    2. Top 10 HD goalie
    Talbot top 5 since start of career.

    What is your definition of HD?

    Here’s the top 25 goalies in HDSV% as per corsica since 13/14, which was Talbot’s first season.

    Minimum 5000 minutes (all situations)

    Player HDSv%
    1 Carey Price 82.01
    2 Sergei Bobrovsky 81.66
    3 Matthew Murray 81.45
    4 Philipp Grubauer 81.43
    5 Cory Schneider 81.4
    6 Andrei Vasilevskiy 81.24
    7 Antti Raanta 81.19
    8 Cam Talbot 80.75
    9 Martin Jones 80.72
    10 Jonathan Quick 80.71
    11 Ben Bishop 80.52
    12 Henrik Lundqvist 80.52
    13 Corey Crawford 80.46
    14 John Gibson 80.41
    15 Jaroslav Halak 80.39

    If we just look at since Talbot became an Oiler (15/16) and drop it to 4000 minutes

    Player HDSv%
    1 Sergei Bobrovsky 82.49
    2 Jonathan Quick 81.76
    3 Philipp Grubauer 81.75
    4 Corey Crawford 81.64
    5 Matthew Murray 81.45
    6 Carey Price 81.41
    7 Antti Raanta 81.34
    8 Cory Schneider 81.26
    9 Ben Bishop 81.26
    10 Anders Nilsson 81.00
    11 Martin Jones 80.86
    12 John Gibson 80.77
    13 Andrei Vasilevskiy 80.52
    14 Henrik Lundqvist 80.48
    15 Marc-andre Fleury 80.25
    16 Ryan Miller 80.19
    17 Cam Talbot 80.04
    18 Frederik Andersen 79.94
    19 Thomas Greiss 79.83
    20 Jake Allen 79.81

  112. Wilde says:

    On this topic, for fun, here’s the projected GAR of Pacific team’s top lines via @CMHockey66’s (in construction) model:

    —————————————————————————–

    ANA

    43.13

    Rakell – Getzlaf – Kase

    14.17 – 17.28* – 11.68

    *no projection, 2017-18 data

    —————————————————————————–

    ARI

    27.62

    Panik – Stepan – Keller

    7.08 – 10.22 – 10.32

    —————————————————————————–

    CGY

    30.95

    Gaudreau – Monahan – Lindholm

    15.34 – 11.53 – 4.42

    —————————————————————————–

    LAK

    25.78

    Kovalchuk – Kopitar – Brown

    3.24 – 14.07 – 8.47*

    *2017-18 data

    —————————————————————————-

    SJS

    30.81

    Kane – Thornton – Pavelski

    8.16 – 10.74 – 11.91

    —————————————————————————-

    VAN

    32.51

    Baerschi – Horvat – Boeser

    3.23 – 14.76 – 14.51

    —————————————————————————–

    VGK

    36.72

    Marshessault – Karlsson – Smith

    14..15 – 12..68 – 9..89

    —————————————————————————–

    EDM

    20.62

    Nuge – McDavid – Rattie

    6.58 – 27.97 – -13.93(LOL)

    —————————————————————————–

    Model no like Ty Rattie. Model smash.

    Anyways if Rattie showed up as R then the Oilers would be at 34.55, right behind VGK for 2nd in the division.

    Puljujarvi has 5.51 projected GAR, put him up there and they just about catch Anaheim.

    Speaking of which, I don’t know if they’ll actually run Kase with RAkell and Getzlaf, just that they should.

    If Perry’s there instead, they sink down to ~35 with VGK.

    In a success case for Kailer Yamamoto, we could use Alex DeBrincat’s 6.89 and that would also just about catch Anaheim.

    In general I don’t really know what to make of this model in particular. Just a fun exercise.

    Sean Tierney blended WAR totals from this guy’s 2017-18 model, Emmanuel Perry’s and EvolvingWilds. It kind of likes the same players, I think I’ll see how the Pacific Division’s teams stack up using it soon.

  113. Melvis says:

    ashley,

    Actually you’re wrong again. The bread and milk dudes didn’t have a key to your house, although admittedly, they didn’t need one. Every fifties suburban new build came fully equipped with that little double door compartment astride the back door. The milk men responded to that little sign in the front room window. Milk Today. Chocolate milk or vico actually tasted like chocolate milkshake, as it was at least 4% cream. Two eight ounce glasses gave a little kid the runs all day long it was so rich.

    I don’t know about the bread dudes, but the milk guys were still using a dray horse pulling a milk wagon towards the end of the Diefenbaker era. The technology dichotomy was stunning.

    That 19th century horse and buggy man had the biggest, fastest, baddest jet fighter interceptor program in the world; choppped and dropped in Lake Ontario at the behest of some anonymous Washington suits. Thus setting us back at least 50 years in ‘putes and aerospce. Now were buying used F-18’s from the Aussies. Go figure.

  114. ashley says:

    Melvis:
    ashley,

    Actually you’re wrong again. The bread and milk dudes didn’t have a key to your house, although admittedly, they didn’t need one. Every fifties suburban new build came fully equipped with that little double door compartment astride the back door. The milk men responded to that little sign in the front room window. Milk Today. Chocolate milk or vico actually tasted like chocolate milkshake, as it was at least 4% cream. Two eight ounce glasses gave a little kid the runs all day long it was so rich.

    I don’t know about the bread dudes, but the milk guys were still using a dray horse pulling a milk wagon towards the end of the Diefenbaker era. The technology dichotomy was stunning.

    That 19th century horse and buggy man had the biggest, fastest, baddest jet fighter interceptor program in the world; choppped and dropped in Lake Ontario at the behest of some anonymous Washington suits. Thus setting us back at least 50 years in ‘putes and aerospce. Now were buying used F-18’s from the Aussies. Go figure.

    Well maybe partially wrong, but partially right. We didn’t have one of those clever milk doors. It never would have been able to hold the 16L of milk that was delivered twice/week for our large family.

    Our dog-eared, sun faded “milk today” sign never left the window. In the winter it was cemented in place by frozen condensation.

    Here is a great link with the Leader Post’s and Swift Current Sun’s take on the Tiger Williams event at Exhibition Park. He was just a kid back then. We all were.

    http://dropyourgloves.com/Fights/GameEvents.aspx?Game=189518

    “After the game, Bronco president and general manager Bill Burton issued a statement that the Broncos would not return to Regina if a seventh game was needed Sunday night. In his statement, Burton said Regina has to have the poorest facilities, the worst policed arena and more drunks per 100 fans than any other arena in Western Canada.”

  115. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bank Shot,

    If everything breaks right for Arizona maybe they have a shot at the playoffs, but they have to make up 31 points on the Ducks, and we know that picking up an extra 25-30 points is a pretty rare feat.

    Feb 1 – end of season

    ANA 30 gp 41pts 0.683pts%
    ARI 31gp 40pts 0.645pts%

    Might be close.

    Yeah, but according to the team stats, Arizona was still a 48% corsi team in those two months.
    Their goal share was 55% but expected was 47%.

    Their ES shooting % was 8.9 and ES save % was .935. PDO was 102.

    That shooting percentage would be good for 4th in the NHL, and save percentage tied for 1st.

    So it looks like Arizona made up for their poor luck to start the season, by pulling rabbits out of a hat at the end of the year.

    Raanta had a career year, Even if he maintains most of his save %, it likely falls a bit.
    No way Arizona is a top five NHL shooting club in the NHL.

    I can see the team being competitive. I think they would have to hit some major lucky breaks to be a playoff team.

  116. nelson88 says:

    ashley,

    Great website. Thanks for passing along. Now I can verify that memory of being a kid at Moose Jaw Canucks game in the late 70’s when the visiting team went into the stands.. hockey in those days, life really, was so much more brutal

  117. Jeffy Jeff says:

    denoting or pertaining to a personality type or behavior marked by the expression of negative emotions in passive, indirect ways, as through manipulation or noncooperation

    Not passive-aggressive, merely a commentary.

  118. rickithebear says:

    GAR!

    Are you serious.

    WAR is based on mechanism of a single battery action.
    Pitch ball to catcher.
    With a binary result Out/not out.
    With a series of result paths.
    Bound by linear movements.

    Defensive war is still just lineAr catch/throw.

    GAR is based on units of play.

    Evg/60 2.35
    STg/60 7.35

    Even play Goal diff break even is 2.35 G
    1G/2.35 is 42.55% of breaking even.

    Special teams goal diff break even is 7.35
    1G/7.35 is 13.61% of breaking even.

    Thier is clear variance in goal diff value when you look st the 2 systems.

    Which means thier is no 1:1 when it comes a single AAR, BAR, CAR, DAR, EAR, FAR, GAR, HAR, IAR, JAR, KAR, LAR, MAR, NAR, OAR, PAR, QAR, RAR, SAR, TAR, UAR, VAR, WAR, XAR, YAR, ZAR.

    Thier are too many permutations and redirections on a GOAL diff success route map.
    You have to know the purmutation baseline for each series of event based plays. To value a player.
    With a resulting Cummulative total by game.

    This concept existed well before PFF.

    But PFF stopped me doing my work on the NFL side.

    Who is the base player in a system. Measured play by play.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think it will be luck if anyone actually understands that post….

  120. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    rickithebear,

    2. Top 10 HD goalie
    Talbot top 5 since start of career.

    What is your definition of HD?

    Here’s the top 25 goalies in HDSV% as per corsica since 13/14, which was Talbot’s first season.

    Minimum 5000 minutes (all situations)

    PlayerHDSv%
    1Carey Price82.01
    2Sergei Bobrovsky81.66
    3Matthew Murray81.45
    4Philipp Grubauer81.43
    5Cory Schneider81.4
    6Andrei Vasilevskiy81.24
    7Antti Raanta81.19
    8Cam Talbot80.75
    9Martin Jones80.72
    10Jonathan Quick80.71
    11Ben Bishop80.52
    12Henrik Lundqvist80.52
    13Corey Crawford80.46
    14John Gibson80.41
    15Jaroslav Halak80.39

    If we just look at since Talbot became an Oiler (15/16)and drop it to 4000 minutes

    PlayerHDSv%
    1Sergei Bobrovsky82.49
    2Jonathan Quick81.76
    3Philipp Grubauer81.75
    4Corey Crawford81.64
    5Matthew Murray81.45
    6Carey Price81.41
    7Antti Raanta81.34
    8Cory Schneider81.26
    9Ben Bishop81.26
    10Anders Nilsson81.00
    11Martin Jones80.86
    12John Gibson80.77
    13Andrei Vasilevskiy80.52
    14Henrik Lundqvist80.48
    15Marc-andre Fleury80.25
    16Ryan Miller80.19
    17Cam Talbot80.04
    18Frederik Andersen79.94
    19Thomas Greiss79.83
    20Jake Allen79.81

    Here is were system affect can be differentiated.
    Open Shots?

    Come on WG.

    This is were you need to put in the video effort on every shot faced by talbot.
    With leadbup play.
    Establish the open shots.
    And
    True save%

    Thier is no MD.

    It is either a chart of success by full density.
    Or
    A line in the sand between LD and HD were trying for HD shots rewards you over straight shoot from anywhere.

  121. Melvis says:

    ashley,

    1974? You’re only a old as you feel. I’m still an immature kid, although I played pond hockey with the other Ron Wilson. Round 3 #35 overall 1971 NHL Amateur Draft. A really mean mofo.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=7371

    And the Starlighters polka band with Eddie Chestolowski.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=13889

    A Guy Lafleur type. Dude would’ve played with the Hawks, except for: booze, cigarettes, marriage, a child, another on the way while still at Michigan Tech earning the full ride P.Eng.

  122. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bank Shot: They missed Getzlaf 26 games last season and finished with 101 points. The games Getzlaf did play he was over a point per game. Rakell had 69 points. A good assortment of 40 point forwards. Good d and goaltending.

    It’s the defence that saves them I think. If the aging vets at forward have another year in them, they could possibly win the division. I like Rakell very much, but the day he becomes their best forward is when they get in trouble. And it could possibly happen this year. Like I say, the Pacific is wide open.

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: Yeah, but according to the team stats, Arizona was still a 48% corsi team in those two months.
    Their goal share was 55% but expected was 47%.

    Their ES shooting % was 8.9 andES save % was .935. PDO was 102.

    That shooting percentage would be good for 4th in the NHL, and save percentage tied for 1st.

    So it looks like Arizona made up for their poor luck to start the season, by pulling rabbits out of a hat at the end of the year.

    Raanta had a career year, Even if he maintains most of his save %, it likely falls a bit.
    No way Arizona is a top five NHL shooting club in the NHL.

    I can see the team being competitive. I think they would have to hit some major lucky breaks to be a playoff team.

    In regards to GF% exceeding CF%

    Their CF% was 48% but GF% was 55%.

    I agree that this is mostly goaltending.

    ANA for the season:

    CF% 48.6%
    GF% 53.2%

    Almost the same as ARI in the sample above, and that’s for the whole season.

    Very good goaltending can produce that result. ANA had very good goaltending all year. ARI for only the end of the year.

    Also,

    From Feb 1st – end of season
    ANA
    CF 51%
    GF% 55.5%
    PDO 1017

    They’re a lot like ARI!!

    Hehe

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear,

    This is were you need to put in the video effort on every shot faced by talbot.

    Did you do video on every shot in the NHL so you could rank all the goalies?

  125. Wilde says:

    rickithebear:

    GAR!
    Are you serious.

    Wilde: Just a fun exercise.

    rickithebear:

    GAR!
    Are you serious.

    Wilde: Just a fun exercise.

    weee

  126. rickithebear says:

    WG: day 1 Baseline is needed for measure relative to the save% average established byy Defence.

    Corsica and others showed you that save% avg as xGA.
    Which is just stupid.

    I told them on HF boards as such.

    Indicating it needed to be as a save% to measure next too.

    Later we see the so called great thinkers switch to delta sv%.

    My theory compliments of Corsica calculator.
    What is the actual best performances over established save% average.
    13-14 58 goalies with 1200 min.
    #1 Talbot xsv% .9187 SV% .9411 = + .0224

    14-15 39 goalies 1600 min
    #1 Price + .0166
    #2 Talbot +.0146 .9113 Def avg; .9258 sv%

    15-16
    Talbot 20th +.0011 but Open shot rates awful.

    16-17
    Talbot #4 +.0152

    17-18 abandoned HD sys.
    Talbot #17 +.0026

    Top 10 HD (delta save%) goalie is +.0050 from 13-14 to 16-17.
    This year it was +.0070

    We need to run a HD sys with this goalie.

    Would love to see Orpik a 14 Eva per season dman.
    There with Russell, Klefbom,
    As part of our group.

    Just had the best unit diff playoff season of any dman in the 05-06 lockout era.
    Like Larsson he can cover for the Wandering Waldo’s

    Larssson Top 10
    Sekera Top 15 2nd comp
    Gravel top 15 2 Nd comp
    Orpik Top 30
    Benning Top 60ish
    Russell elite 0% Corsi Dman.
    Nurse
    Bouchard

  127. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    rickithebear,

    This is were you need to put in the video effort on every shot faced by talbot.

    Did you do video on every shot in the NHL so you could rank all the goalies?

    Yup had them on excel at work.
    3 yrs worth.
    You can exclude quite a number of goalies quickly.
    Fucking IT punted them.

    I am a moron for not keeping a copy at home.

    Forgot it in the shuffle off during Cancer.

    Wife witnessed the 10pm to 2 am.
    Beutifulmind / Rainman sections.
    On paper and video.

    The GAA trick I showed in other post
    Let’s you concentrate on the correct groups.

    It can be quite quick.
    For goals.
    Gives you a good start to performance reference.

    F……………………..!
    My Excel!

    Generate a shot template with 20 net elevations.

  128. Side says:

    “You’re all stupid for not listening to me and believing in the work I’ve been doing over the last 30 years!”

    “Well… where’s your work?”

    “It’s gone”

    “Oh…”

    “and you’re all still stupid!”

    “Oh…”

  129. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’ve mentioned a few time (so sorry for repeating myself, yet again), that one of the keys to the season is Matt Benning establishing himself as a true second pairing d-man. If a Nurse (or Klefbom)/Benning pairing can play solid even strength minutes against good competition, that would go a long ways towards team success.

    That would keep Russell on the third pairing and away from 2RD (even if he has to play the right side on the 3rd pairing, that is much less egregious than 2RD).

    That would allow Sekera to play third pairing to continue to ease him back in.

    After a full summer of rehab and conditioning if Sekera is not ready for 2RD, the team is screwed right off the bat. There is no time to ease him in with the schedule they out of the gate.

  130. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Bouchard, yes, however, in my opinion, I don’t think its reasonable to expect Bear to be more that a 3rd pairing PP specialist.I hope I’m wrong and his ceiling is top 4 but I’m not going to expect that.Nothing wrong with a poor man’s Tyson Barrie given where he was drafted.

    You could be selling Bear short, the guy was WHL defenceman of the year, that’s not chopped liver.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sekera at 2RD is not something I would even contemplate as an option.

    He is a left shot/left side d-man. Yup, he’s played the right side in his career, including as an Oiler, and he’s shown to be markedly worse on the right side.

    I have zero desire to see him or Russell (or any other of the current left shot d-men) shift to the ride side except on the 3rd pairing (which is only out of necessity).

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: You could be selling Bear short, the guy was WHL defenceman of the year, that’s not chopped liver.

    Yup, I could be and hope that i am.

    It is definitely not chopped liver, some excellent NHL d-men have won that award. Its also recently been won by:

    Derek Pouliot
    Brenden Kichton
    Alex Petrovic
    Stefan Elliott
    Johnathan Blum
    Kris Russell

    A couple of those guys remain definite NHLers but the award doesn’t guarantee top 4 NHL success. I’m just not sold on Bear’s skillset leading to a legit top 4 guy but, who knows, he’s only going in to his 2nd year pro – lots and lots of time before we close the book.

  133. Pescador says:

    rickithebear: Yup had them on excel at work.
    3 yrs worth.
    You can exclude quite a number of goalies quickly.
    Fucking IT punted them.

    I am a moron for not keeping a copy at home.

    Forgot it in theshuffle off during Cancer.

    Wife witnessed the 10pm to 2 am.
    Beutifulmind / Rainman sections.
    On paper and video.

    The GAA trick I showed in other post
    Let’s you concentrate on the correct groups.

    It can be quite quick.
    For goals.
    Gives you a good start to performance reference.

    F……………………..!
    My Excel!

    Generate a shot template with 20 net elevations.

    I’ve wasted a bit of ‘company’ time in my life,
    watching & ranking every shot taken in an NHL season?
    That is DF next level!!

  134. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear,

    So you had your database on excel on a computer at work. Why the hell would you go into work at 10pm till 2pm for like 3 years to do this?

  135. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Players that struggle defensively can’t help the Oilers.

    Think of it this way:

    Young core needs vet support – teach the youth the game and do the grunt work properly.

    Old core needs youth support (to replace them) – teach the youth the game and do the grunt work properly.

    It’s the same thing except where in the roster they are and what roles they play. Pisani, as LT says is what the Oiler need. Hopefully that is Brodziak, Rieder.

    If the Oilers calm the D and N zones down, Talbot is in a show up year which his pattern suggests might happen this year, they will be a tough team to beat I think. Not league best, but very good.

    Add in a few lights coming on, regressions to norms and average health and it gets better than that.

  136. Oilman99 says:

    JimmyV1965: Funny thing is I think one the fatal flaws for the Flames is Johnny Hockey. They don’t go anywhere if he’s their best player. Unlike a small guy like Patrick Kane, I think Gaudreau can get pushed out of games. Although he has good edgework, it’s not on the same level as Kane.As a result I don’t think he can dominate possession in the same way. I don’t think he had the same tenacity as a small guy like Brayden Point or the knack for being in the right spot defensively. Gaudreau reminds me of a better version of Eberle. Very useful piece but if he’s your best player I think your in trouble.

    The problem is Johnie Hockey plays johnie hockey, not team hockey.

  137. Pescador says:

    Oilman99: After a full summer of rehab and conditioning if Sekera is not ready for 2RD, the team is screwed right off the bat. There is no time to ease him in with the schedule they out of the gate.

    I’m prepared to wait and see what 25 – 83 look like on the second pairing before i jump off the bridge.
    Run 2 – 4 third pairing to start the year

  138. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Sekera at 2RD is not something I would even contemplate as an option.

    He is a left shot/left side d-man.Yup, he’s played the right side in his career, including as an Oiler, and he’s shown to be markedly worse on the right side.

    I have zero desire to see him or Russell (or any other of the current left shot d-men) shift to the ride side except on the 3rd pairing (which is only out of necessity).

    My mistake, meant playing 2 D not 2 RD.

  139. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0: In regards to GF% exceeding CF%

    Their CF% was 48% but GF% was 55%.

    I agree that this is mostly goaltending.

    ANA for the season:

    CF% 48.6%
    GF% 53.2%

    Almost the same as ARI in the sample above, and that’s for the whole season.

    Very good goaltending can produce that result.ANA had very good goaltending all year.ARI for only the end of the year.

    Also,

    From Feb 1st – end of season
    ANA
    CF 51%
    GF% 55.5%
    PDO 1017

    They’re a lot like ARI!!

    Hehe

    Yeah, but the Ducks have shown they can have good defence and goaltending for 5 straight seasons.

    Arizona hasn’t shown it.

    Plus Arizona is not going to have top 5 shooting percentage. Well they might, but I would bet against it.

  140. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I think it will be luck if anyone actually understands that post….

    I guess if you’re from another planet it all makes sense.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: I’m prepared to wait and see what 25 – 83 look like on the second pairing before i jump off the bridge.
    Run 2 – 4third pairing to start the year

    Agreed.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: My mistake, meant playing 2 D not 2 RD.

    Sure, 2LD but we’ve got Nurse and Klefbom right now as well so I’m fine easing him back in.

    If he’s back to close to 100% health, we have one hell of a third pairing and one heck of a deep defensive group.

  143. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure, 2LD but we’ve got Nurse and Klefbom right now as well so I’m fine easing him back in.

    If he’s back to close to 100% health, we have one hell of a third pairing and one heck of a deep defensive group.

    Klef
    Nurse
    Sek
    Thats some nice LD depth.
    Oilman99 is right though 2RD is the key to the season
    that and maybe Dadbot sv%

  144. Pescador says:

    Melvis:
    ashley,

    Dude would’ve played with the Hawks, except for: booze, cigarettes, marriage, a child, another on the way

    The things i would have accomplished in this life….

  145. Richard S.S. says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Who is manipulating what? The question is: “Is Cam Talbot done, or was last year an outlier – for more than just him?” Either Cam Talbot is more like one person’s idea or the other person’s idea or both are wrong. My question is, “Which Cam Talbot showed up in 2016/2017?”

  146. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Hate it when the dog eats my homework

  147. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer:
    rickithebear,

    Hate it when the dog eats my homework

    Maybe it was a cougar

  148. Yegfoundation says:

    leadfarmer,

    You guys are being jerks.

  149. leadfarmer says:

    Yegfoundation,

    Probably, but when someone keeps calling everyone an idiot or worse a plagiarist and you ask them for proof of their work and it magically vanishes the response is expected

  150. v4ance says:

    Brandon Tanev re-signed for $1.15 million with the Jets. Good thing we got Caggulia early for $1.5 million to lock up that 13th forward that’s so highly prized!

  151. Soup Fascist says:

    Lowetide: Lol. Do you sell it up here? I honestly haven’t seen Pop Shoppe in forever.

    Believe it or not a little convenience store in Boyle, Alberta sells Pop Shoppe. I can pick some up when I am at the lake. Figure you for a Black Cherry Guy. But Lime Rickey could be a wildcard.

    Candy Bouquet in St Albert may have a track on Cuban Lunches.

    The world is not yet beyond redemption.

  152. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer,

    I’ve been asking Ricki if he could show his database for the last six months. Have also asked him if any of his work was peer reviewed.

    I never got an answer.

    Now I guess I can stop asking him.

  153. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: Yeah, but the Ducks have shown they can have good defence and goaltending for 5 straight seasons.

    Arizona hasn’t shown it.

    Plus Arizona is not going to have top 5 shooting percentage. Well they might, but I would bet against it.

    All of this is true.

    That’s why ARI is a bet and not a slam dunk. 🙂

    I’m not too worried about the SH%. If it were league average it wouldn’t have changed much.

    SV% is the big thing.

  154. Melvis says:

    Soup Fascist: Believe it or not a little convenience store in Boyle, Alberta sells Pop Shoppe. I can pick some up when I am at the lake. Figure you for a Black Cherry Guy. But Lime Rickey could be a wildcard.

    Candy Bouquet in St Albert may have a track on Cuban Lunches.

    The world is not yet beyond redemption.

    Apparently the brand name was incredibly cheap.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/cuban-lunch-chocolate-bar-alberta-camrose-1.4733400

  155. russ99 says:

    frjohnk:
    leadfarmer,

    I’ve been asking Ricki if he could show his database for the last six months. Have also asked him if any of his work was peer reviewed.

    I never got an answer.

    Now I guess I can stop asking him.

    Ricki is doing fantastic work. So he lost a goalie spreadsheet…

    The real crime here is many of you are so locked into shot metrics or what I call the “grand unified theory of Corsi” (CF%+, PDO and goalie SV% explains everything) that you can’t see the value of other analytics work.

    The rest of the hockey world gets so turned off when people are soapboxing that my stats are better than your stats. If we’re using analytics to find value, then we should at least consider the validity, and maybe re-examine things we hold to be gospel.

  156. frjohnk says:

    russ99: Ricki is doing fantastic work. So he lost a goalie spreadsheet…

    The real crime here is many of you are so locked into shot metrics or what I call the “grand unified theory of Corsi” (CF%+, PDO and goalie SV% explains everything) that you can’t see the value of other analytics work.

    The rest of the hockey world gets so turned off when people are soapboxing that my stats are better than your stats. If we’re using analytics to find value, then we should at least consider the validity, and maybe re-examine things we hold to be gospel.

    I rarely use Corsi.

    The reason I have asked Ricki repeatedly for his database is that I would like to see what he has as I have seen some of Sportloqiq s data and just wanted to compare.

    Sportloqiq blows every public database out of the water and even with that there is tones of road left to travel.

    While I like Rickis work, many questions come up, it would be nice if he could answer them instead of attacking posters here.

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