Stand Back!

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers did as hoped, keeping their powder dry and investing in the youth movement. That probably means short-term suffering and possibly another season on the outside looking in. Management is betting on a market correction on a (mostly) young roster, with better health and goaltending big items on the wish list. Up front, who needs to shine?

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

RIESEN TO BELIEVE

  1. C Connor McDavid, 21. Per 82 games in his entry-level deal, 97 scored 34-66-100. Elite player, he could post higher numbers and reach an even higher gear. Stand back!  100%.
  2. C-R Leon Draisaitl, 22. Leon’s big contract negotiations were the story a year ago, hos offense fell from .939 points-per-game to .897—and many fans were outraged. Considering the injury and the power play, I think he did fine. Huge season to come, can his line outscore the opposition? I think he’ll play 30 percent of his season with 97. 100%. 
  3. L Milan Lucic, 30. One of the keys to the season might be Lucic’s performance and how quickly Todd McLellan reacts if things are on the downbeat. Lots of focus on points, but if the big winger plays on a No. 3 line, scores 35 points but plays on a productive outscoring line things will be better. I don’t know if ML has that in him but we’re going to find out. 100%.
  4. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 25. Nuge has scored 24 goals twice, but if he catches the McDavid train, 30+ is likely with good health. I do expect him to play 70 percent of his season on the top line with the captain and 60+ points are likely. Has scored 21 goals per 82 games during his career. 100%.
  5. F Tobias Rieder, 25. He can play either wing and my guess is that’s just what he’ll do. Rieder can help out in all areas but Edmonton will need him for two-way prowess and penalty killing. Per 82gp, he’s 14-19-33, and with the elevated status (I’m betting he plays at least 50 percent of the time with a skilled center). I’m looking forward to seeing him play as an Oiler.  100%.
  6. R Ty Rattie, 25. Rattie’s summer has no doubt been spent listening to the world telling him how lucky he is, but he brings potential for fantastic value for Edmonton. Per 82 games in the NHL so far, he’s 15-17-32. As is the case with Rieder, that number could go way up if he can keep the job assigned. 100%.
  7. C-R Ryan Strome, 25My RE prediction one year ago (40 points) including time with McDavid. He fell shy (34), while also playing very little with the captain. Now? We don’t talk about him as an option. If he does land on the jackpot, a righty center would come in handy on that line. 100%.
  8. R Jesse Puljujarvi, 20. He’s big, strong, talented. Scored 12 goals in a part-time role scored eight goals in the first 22 games of last season. JP is a gigantic teddy bear, but there’s just too much here for him to fail. My guess is he blossoms this season, starting on the Strome line and then moving up to the Leon trio. 100%.
  9. L Jujhar Khaira, 24. Last year I had him at 70 percent, suggesting it would come down to offense. He scored well based on expectations, and may have done enough to find a home on the No. 3 line with Ryan Strome. Khaira is a physical player who can play a rambunctious style, both Chiarelli and McLellan value that player. 100%.
  10. L Drake Caggiula, 24. He scores 13-12-25 per 82 games, but he’s not scoring enough considering how much he plays with top-end skill. His possession numbers are not strong and there are stronger options available, but Caggiula’s speed gets him into a prominent spot often. If he is unable to post strong outscoring numbers, this could be his final season in the organization. 100%.
  11. R Zack Kassian, 27. He fell off from 2016-17 and he’s pricey for the position, but Kassian brings a rugged game and surprising skill for player-type. Edmonton needs secondary scoring and one of these days Kassian is going to score more than seven goals. He absolutely gets enough chances to score 15 a year. 100%.
  12. RC Kyle Brodziak, 34. Brodziak is at the point in his career where the next poor season probably takes him out of the league, but it’s been some time since he was truly poor. He could be an inspired signing, but I said the same thing about Jussi Jokinen a year ago. 100%.
  13. W Pontus Aberg, 25. I keep thinking he’ll win a job inside the top 9F, but the Predators are a smart organization and maybe he’s a little shy of being that player in the NHL. Scores 21.7 points per 82 games, you’d guess he would be more productive just watching him. 80%.
  14. R Kailer Yamamoto, 20. Last year I wrote “Electric skills and another goal scorer. A small winger, he will impress if given chances. If he is here late in camp, the club may give him nine games.” I think he’ll get more than 9 games this season but am less certain about his status on opening night. 10%.
  15. LC Brad Malone, 29. Malone can play center, wins faceoffs, penalty kills and it won’t hurt him to sit in the pressbox for long stretches. 5%.
  16. RC Cooper Marody, 21. Some buzz around Marody, whose final college season (40, 16-35-51) for Michigan was a quality junior season. 5%.

A FEW THOUGHTS ON SUMMER

I wanted the Oilers to keep their powder dry, to make that pick at No. 10, hold on to Oscar and Nuge, refrain from dealing out Jesse Puljujarvi. And it happened just that way. The challenge now is getting off to a reasonable start and then making the playoffs. For Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan, a postseason berth means they live to fight another day. I don’t know how tempting it was at the draft for the organization (on the draft broadcast Brian Burke suggested a deal was contemplated, No. 10 for an NHL puck mover), but on the other side of midnight things are looking better long term with the Evan Bouchard investment.

THE DRAFT

It always takes a little time to absorb a draft, the 2018 edition gives us more clues about Keith Gretzky’s touch and Bob Green’s style. Green and his staff were without Gretzky in 2015 and 2016, the push for skill evident. In the combined 2017 and 2018 drafts, the Gretzky-Green combination seem to be about skill first and foremost. I’ve been reading about the two kids at the back end of the 2018 draft, and they can do things with the puck. I’m not sure Markus Niemelainen and Matt Cairns (from the 2016 draft) would have been chosen by the current group, offense seems to have moved up on the priority list.

In just two drafts, the scouting group have added forwards Kailer Yamamoto, Kirill Maksimov, Ostap Safin and Ryan McLeod. That’s four legit prospects pushing. Defensively the big name is Evan Bouchard, but Dmitri Samorukov and Phil Kemp are trending well and the more I drill down on Michael Kesselring the more interesting the story gets.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun, busy morning with plenty of Oilers and hockey talk. It all starts at 10, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  •  Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. Jon kicks off our Oilers prospect coverage today, you’ll see articles over the next couple of weeks covering every prospect in the system. We’ll touch base on today’s article by Jon, the bubbling under group.
  • Zac Jackson, The Athletic. We begin our look at NFL camps with the Cleveland Browns, a team that has lots of room to grow.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. CFL teams are going trade wild, what the hell is going on?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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who

OriginalPouzar: I wasn’t counting Nuge as it was assumed he will be at 1LW and we were talking about 2LW.

Sure, Khaira is trending better than Lucic right now but Lucic did have better metrics than Khaira, possession metrics, goal share, etc. and their P/60 were almost the same (and Khaira had a unsustainably high shooting percentage and Lucic unusustainably low).

Its far from lock that Khaira would have a more productive season at 2LW.

Same with Rider – Lucic had better metrics and the P/60 were about the same.

My God OP.
Did you not watch the games last year?
There is no metric you can show me that would convince me Lucic was as good, or better, than Khaira.

Kinger_Oil.redux

PREDICKTER:

– That’s interesting. Doesn’t fit with what the few guys I know who play say, but can’t argue the poll. Maybe it got better this year: sure didn’t seem like it watching on the telly…

Melvis

A bit off topic, or as off topic as TSN was yesterday evening. I was surprised to see Dodgeball running in the 6:00-8:00pm slot. This suggests perfect timing for LT making the move into “dog days of summer”, prime TV sports territory.

“In The Garage” with Alan Mitchell and friends. Low budget. High concept. Absolutely fascinating. Lots of room for product placement on that set. I’d watch – since Caddyshack has been around the block a few too many times. Anyway…

As there are many music lovers here. some might find this interesting.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/lifestyle/average-person-stops-seeking-out-new-music-by-age-28-survey-1.4025955

OriginalPouzar

OilSlickster:
OriginalPouzar,

I agree with this. With the success the top line had to end the season (small sample size alert) its likely Rattie starts the season there as well.
I’d like to see these lines tried in pre-season

Nuge/McDavid/Rattie
Pulju/Drai/Yama
Lucic/Strome/Rieder
Khaira/Brodz/Kass

Aberg, Caggs

I’m not sure that Puljujarvi on his off-side (which he is not used to playing) is the way to go when we are hoping/needing him to take a stop forward.

OriginalPouzar

rickithebear: These numbers are guaranteed to identify the best d men 47% of the time.
Reviewed it going back 6 years.

Why do you keep using the least accurate measure.
When you have 2 options that are 85% or better.

You have a calculator.
That presents 53% inaccuracy.

The major flaw is partial inclusion of 0% corsi def affect.
Data is about the wholes (100%) of def mechanism affect.

Closed shot and miss portion of the data has 0% chance of going in.Which is a huge defensive factor.

The 2 most accurate( above 85% identifier)
Corsi HD (CAx,y)
full exclusion of 0% corsi defensive affect.
Or
Open shot HD
Full inclusion of 0% corsi (blocks + misses + closed shots) defensive affect.

It is the only 2 density based Shot charts with high accurate identifying value.
Which of coarse can be the only 2.
They provide 100% wholes of the 2 critical high ratio defensive identifiers in the game.

Anything else is misleading partials.

Hey it is different than mine.

You had 6 partials choices other than the wholes Corsior Open shot.
Corsi – blocks
Corsi – misses
Corsi – (blocks + misses)
Corsi – Closed shots
Corsi – (blocks + closed shots)
Corsi – (misses + closed shots)

You picked the only accuracy below 50%
Fenwick by itself.

My perspective when I look at your data.

Worst data available (47%/85%) or (47%/(93-95%))
And
Built by individuals with zero understanding of the importance of the 2 defensive identifiers as wholes.
CAx,y
CAx,y – (0% CA)

This is as clear minded an explanation
(No work influence – No family distraction – No pain)
I have been able to provide.

Wholes versus partials.
Wholes seem to be the bast choice every time.
Funny!

What?

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: I understand what you are saying but this has been tried and does not work! Khaira would be a much better solution in that he is faster and a better puck retriever. I think Lucic will be better served by playing fewer minutes. Sometimes less is more! Less pressure will allow him to get his confidence back! In a third line role he will be a contributer. When he gets his game back a move up could be in order. Lucic needs to be put in a position to succeed. Second line with Drai has not been a place where he has had success!

I’m not sure how you can say with such certainty that Khaira is the much better option.

He has zero history of playing in the top 6 in the NHL. Maybe he can play there and be productive but one year ago he was not even an every day NHL player and he does have limited offence.

He took big steps last year and, even when shooting at 20%, he P/60 essentially matched that of a hugely slumping Milan Lucic (granted Lucic had better linemates) and his posession and goal share metrics were inferior to those of Lucic.

Khaira has no history of being able to perform at top 6 level whereas Lucic has (albeit neither did so last year)

I’m not saying Lucic is going to be the answer at 2LW or that Khaira wouldn’t be but there is really nothing to say/show that Khaira is the better option there in October except for people being down on Lucic (rightfully so).

I still posit that the net benefit of Lucic bouncing back at 2LW is so material for the organization (this year and in the future) that is should be given an opportunity. Lucic bouncing back at 2LW is a bigger net win for the team than Khaira filling the spot adequately.

Trust me, I’d prefer to see Khaira there, he’s a better skater, however, I think it makes sense to see if Lucic can bounce back there – its no less likely than Khaira outperforming Lucic at 2LW.

Woodguy v2.0

Bank Shot: Well Hunter asked if McLellan had developed even one player. And Draisaitl is a guy who developed under his watch.

Personally I’m of the opinion that players are generally responsible for their own development.

But if you are going to give the coach crap for not being able to develop players, you can’t discount the ones that had success under his watch.

That’s not fair.

I’m just having fun with you.

maudite

Yesx100

OriginalPouzar: I’m not saying Lucic should play 2LW to increase his trade value but that increasing his trade value is one of the net benefits if he does have a bounce back season (to even middling 2LW results).

I agree that we cannot waste the first 10-15 games.The team can certainly take itself out of playoff contention by mid November.

With that said, if Nuge is at 1LW, there is no other forward on the team who is anywhere close to a lock to be better than Lucic at 2LW.

You have Khaira there and, frankly, while I would be more excited to see Khaira in that spot, its far from a lock that he’s better there than Lucic and, frankly, he’s never been a top 6 player.A year ago he was not even an every day NHL player. He has worse metrics (possession and goal share) than Lucic last year and produce P/60 at essentially the same rate (with a shooting percentage that is unsustainably high – while Lucic’s was unsustainably low).

Putting a raw player on their ELC at 2LW who has ever played in the top 6 in the NHL and is still establishing himself as an every day NHL player is just as risky as putting Lucic there and hoping for a 40-45 points season.

The lineup is not optimal, there is no “right answer” for the position but I think the net benefit of Lucic bouncing back at that position (creates depth in the lineup and other players being put in positions to suceed and increases value)

Professor Q

hunter1909: We could call that the “Jordan style” which accepts the reality that Lowe, MacT, and Howson must never, ever leave the Oilers, ever.

Hey now, Jordan is with the Hornets now. Or rather, *is* the Hornets…

OriginalPouzar

Oz: My read on what some posters are saying is that ML should be 2LW to potentially increase his trade value. How about that he played himself off 2LW in particular after the Christmas break, so I have put him 3LW with Strome and PP2 net front presence which would help his chances of increasing his points, so that some GM would take him and say that they could put him with better linemates. The schedule does not allow for tinkering in the first 10-20 games, first 10 opponents are brutal.
My opening line up for the season
Defense same as others have suggested
77-6
25-83
2-4
Forwards
93-97-98 ( I really like the suggestion by others of JP being a Kurri)
16-29-22 (WG has indicated he has 1st and 2nd line experience. Not sure how he performed)
27-18-Yamma (I have no spot for Rattie)
91-28-44 (Kassian has the ability to play up and down the lineup)

PS Todd will not likely field this lineup and doubtful the Wine Summit boys will be calling me for an interview!!

I’m not saying Lucic should play 2LW to increase his trade value but that increasing his trade value is one of the net benefits if he does have a bounce back season (to even middling 2LW results).

I agree that we cannot waste the first 10-15 games. The team can certainly take itself out of playoff contention by mid November.

With that said, if Nuge is at 1LW, there is no other forward on the team who is anywhere close to a lock to be better than Lucic at 2LW.

You have Khaira there and, frankly, while I would be more excited to see Khaira in that spot, its far from a lock that he’s better there than Lucic and, frankly, he’s never been a top 6 player. A year ago he was not even an every day NHL player. He has worse metrics (possession and goal share) than Lucic last year and produce P/60 at essentially the same rate (with a shooting percentage that is unsustainably high – while Lucic’s was unsustainably low).

Putting a raw player on their ELC at 2LW who has ever played in the top 6 in the NHL and is still establishing himself as an every day NHL player is just as risky as putting Lucic there and hoping for a 40-45 points season.

The lineup is not optimal, there is no “right answer” for the position but I think the net benefit of Lucic bouncing back at that position (creates depth in the lineup and other players being put in positions to suceed and increases value)

OriginalPouzar

who: I see three left wingers on this team who had better seasons last year.
Nuge, Khaira, Rieder.

I wasn’t counting Nuge as it was assumed he will be at 1LW and we were talking about 2LW.

Sure, Khaira is trending better than Lucic right now but Lucic did have better metrics than Khaira, possession metrics, goal share, etc. and their P/60 were almost the same (and Khaira had a unsustainably high shooting percentage and Lucic unusustainably low).

Its far from lock that Khaira would have a more productive season at 2LW.

Same with Rider – Lucic had better metrics and the P/60 were about the same.

Leon McMesstzky

OriginalPouzar,

I agree with this. With the success the top line had to end the season (small sample size alert) its likely Rattie starts the season there as well.
I’d like to see these lines tried in pre-season

Nuge/McDavid/Rattie
Pulju/Drai/Yama
Lucic/Strome/Rieder
Khaira/Brodz/Kass

Aberg, Caggs

rickithebear

WG: GF diff affect includes
Both def reductions ( established save%)
And
Goalie +/- performance versus the save% baseline.

He everyone
partial identifier of dman defensive mechanism.
Is a better picture about dman def play than
Inclusion of the non dman data portion of def triangle (2-1) (100% dman performance + 100% goalie performance)

Though my position is that we need to differentiate what the def triangle is.
By structure and spacing.
(2D – 1G)
(1rover – 1D – 1G)
(1 fwd (4th fwd) – 1D – 1G)
Abandonment variance on CA needs to be differentiated and captured.

rickithebear

Woodguy v2.0:
GMoney gave me the Nurse-Larsson WoodWOWY’s yesterday.

I know some have been asking.

Here’s the highlights:

Vs. Elite
PlayersDFF%
Darnell Nurse with Adam Larsson48.1
Darnell Nurse without Adam Larsson50.2
Adam Larsson without Darnell Nurse49.8
Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson both off46.7

vs Middle
PlayersDFF%
Darnell Nurse with Adam Larsson54.6
Darnell Nurse without Adam Larsson60.4
Adam Larsson without Darnell Nurse45.5
Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson both off49.6

vs Gritensity
PlayersDFF%
Darnell Nurse with Adam Larsson56.7
Darnell Nurse without Adam Larsson56.3
Adam Larsson without Darnell Nurse60.8
Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson both off50.2

Same exercise, but with GF% (in these samples DFF% tells us waaaaaay more)

vs Elite
PlayersGF%
Darnell Nurse with Adam Larsson50
Darnell Nurse without Adam Larsson77.8
Adam Larsson without Darnell Nurse53.3
Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson both off42.4

vs Middle
PlayersGF%
Darnell Nurse with Adam Larsson64
Darnell Nurse without Adam Larsson60
Adam Larsson without Darnell Nurse33.3
Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson both off39.5

vs Gritensity
PlayersGF%
Darnell Nurse with Adam Larsson52.4
Darnell Nurse without Adam Larsson75
Adam Larsson without Darnell Nurse18.2
Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson both off35.3

I think a big part of the shitty GF% for the lower tiers is reflective of how bad the bottom 6 were last year in terms of GF%, especially Letestu.

That and 97 wasn’t on the ice.

Klefbom was Larsson’s partner for most of the time Nurse wasn’t.His first two months were a catastrophe and he evened out after.

This next year for Klefbom is huge for him and the Oilers.

These numbers are guaranteed to identify the best d men 47% of the time.
Reviewed it going back 6 years.

Why do you keep using the least accurate measure.
When you have 2 options that are 85% or better.

You have a calculator.
That presents 53% inaccuracy.

The major flaw is partial inclusion of 0% corsi def affect.
Data is about the wholes (100%) of def mechanism affect.

Closed shot and miss portion of the data has 0% chance of going in.Which is a huge defensive factor.

The 2 most accurate ( above 85% identifier)
Corsi HD (CAx,y)
full exclusion of 0% corsi defensive affect.
Or
Open shot HD
Full inclusion of 0% corsi (blocks + misses + closed shots) defensive affect.

It is the only 2 density based Shot charts with high accurate identifying value.
Which of coarse can be the only 2.
They provide 100% wholes of the 2 critical high ratio defensive identifiers in the game.

Anything else is misleading partials.

Hey it is different than mine.

You had 6 partials choices other than the wholes Corsi or Open shot.
Corsi – blocks
Corsi – misses
Corsi – (blocks + misses)
Corsi – Closed shots
Corsi – (blocks + closed shots)
Corsi – (misses + closed shots)

You picked the only accuracy below 50%
Fenwick by itself.

My perspective when I look at your data.

Worst data available (47%/85%) or (47%/(93-95%))
And
Built by individuals with zero understanding of the importance of the 2 defensive identifiers as wholes.
CAx,y
CAx,y – (0% CA)

This is as clear minded an explanation
(No work influence – No family distraction – No pain)
I have been able to provide.

Wholes versus partials.
Wholes seem to be the bast choice every time.
Funny!

rickithebear

Kinger_Oil.redux: – good catch – for D exclude chia guys. A better gm be like:

Klef-Demers
Nurse-Shattenkirk
Davidson-Franson

A saw him good old boy group would pick that top 4.

It is one of the traditional
Trite
Counter Goal diff success top.

The bottom 2 might be very good.
Top 10 good.

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: I don’t see any other player on the team that is anything close to a lock to perform better than Lucic at 2LW.

I understand what you are saying but this has been tried and does not work! Khaira would be a much better solution in that he is faster and a better puck retriever. I think Lucic will be better served by playing fewer minutes. Sometimes less is more! Less pressure will allow him to get his confidence back! In a third line role he will be a contributer. When he gets his game back a move up could be in order. Lucic needs to be put in a position to succeed. Second line with Drai has not been a place where he has had success!

pts2pndr

Oz: My read on what some posters are saying is that ML should be 2LW to potentially increase his trade value. How about that he played himself off 2LW in particular after the Christmas break, so I have put him 3LW with Strome and PP2 net front presence which would help his chances of increasing his points, so that some GM would take him and say that they could put him with better linemates. The schedule does not allow for tinkering in the first 10-20 games, first 10 opponents are brutal.
My opening line up for the season
Defense same as others have suggested
77-6
25-83
2-4
Forwards
93-97-98 ( I really like the suggestion by others of JP being a Kurri)
16-29-22 (WG has indicated he has 1st and 2nd line experience. Not sure how he performed)
27-18-Yamma (I have no spot for Rattie)
91-28-44 (Kassian has the ability to play up and down the lineup)

PS Todd will not likely field this lineup and doubtful the Wine Summit boys will be calling me for an interview!!

I would move Kassian up to third line but other than that what you have is what I would start training camp with. It gives the first three lines th best balance for the last three years. Sadly coach McLellan has his favorites in Cagguila and Yamamoto whom I believe will get a push into the top three lines.

PREDICKTER

Kinger_Oil.redux:
hunter1909,

–While you are at it, the ice still sucks as well.

– Really disappointing they don’t have the the best ice in the league

– It really was an advantage at Northlands back in the day: a skill team with great ice.Now the puck bobbles around as the period goes on.Players think its a joke, despite the so-called improvements

– Billion dollar arena with bush-league ice, for the most northern hockey team: bush

– McDavid et al would score a bunch more with better ice where they could control the puck

Well, you are correct about 1 thing, it’s not the best, but second best, according to a poll of NHL players. Let’s spin a web and let it grow wings.

https://www.nhlpa.com/player-poll/2017-18

Silver Streak

Kinger_Oil.redux:
hunter1909,

–While you are at it, the ice still sucks as well.

– Really disappointing they don’t have the the best ice in the league

– It really was an advantage at Northlands back in the day: a skill team with great ice.Now the puck bobbles around as the period goes on.Players think its a joke, despite the so-called improvements

– Billion dollar arena with bush-league ice, for the most northern hockey team: bush

– McDavid et al would score a bunch more with better ice where they could control the puck

My thoughts exactly…when an American firm was awarded the design contract, the building was going to be a typical basketball cookie cutter with the lowest possible seating angles and shitty ice.

Oz

OriginalPouzar: godot10: The OIlers start the season with murderer’s row.The scheduler has it in for McLellan more than I do.There is no room for taking a risk for 10-12 games.

The Oilers CANNOT ease into this season.The playoffs are on the line from game 1 on.

Yes, and?

If Nuge is playing 1LW there it is reasonable to think that Lucic is the team’s next best left winger.

There is nothing to say the team gets off to a better start with Khaira or Rieder in that spot.

My read on what some posters are saying is that ML should be 2LW to potentially increase his trade value. How about that he played himself off 2LW in particular after the Christmas break, so I have put him 3LW with Strome and PP2 net front presence which would help his chances of increasing his points, so that some GM would take him and say that they could put him with better linemates. The schedule does not allow for tinkering in the first 10-20 games, first 10 opponents are brutal.
My opening line up for the season
Defense same as others have suggested
77-6
25-83
2-4
Forwards
93-97-98 ( I really like the suggestion by others of JP being a Kurri)
16-29-22 (WG has indicated he has 1st and 2nd line experience. Not sure how he performed)
27-18-Yamma (I have no spot for Rattie)
91-28-44 (Kassian has the ability to play up and down the lineup)

PS Todd will not likely field this lineup and doubtful the Wine Summit boys will be calling me for an interview!!

who

OriginalPouzar: I don’t see any other player on the team that is anything close to a lock to perform better than Lucic at 2LW.

I see three left wingers on this team who had better seasons last year.
Nuge, Khaira, Rieder.

Bank Shot

Woodguy v2.0: Hossa went from 1 pt to 75pts under Jacques Martin.

Would have never happened under any other coach.

Well Hunter asked if McLellan had developed even one player. And Draisaitl is a guy who developed under his watch.

Personally I’m of the opinion that players are generally responsible for their own development.

But if you are going to give the coach crap for not being able to develop players, you can’t discount the ones that had success under his watch.

That’s not fair.

godot10

I don’t think Rieder is going to complain if they play him with McDavid instead of Draisaitl. I think he looked at the OIlers RW depth and said heads (Draisaitl), I win, tails (McDavid) I win.

Foege Foegele Torpe

Nix: This.
Was Drake given a wink wink deal that he would play certain minutes if he signed here? Thats what was theorized ad nauseum based on his over deployment. If true, I absolutely believe playing with Draisaitl was front and center in Rieders negotiation. And Im a-ok with this if it means watching less of Lucics glacial grind.

It makes sense,
Likely 2LW to start the season will be Lucic with Drai & Rieder.
There will be more glacial grind watching as a result of the other 2 dragging it along.
which hopefully will increase the Lucic trade value,
but if hes having success and the team is doing well he is probably less likely to waive that NTC.
My head is going to explode

godot10

ArmchairGM: Very interesting. A few weeks ago I was engaged in an argument over whether Matthews is better than Eichel, and was shocked to see Matthews at the top of the league in goals/60 (by far) and 3rd in points/60. If he played as many minutes as other young stars, he’d be head-and-shoulders above them all save McDavid. He’s the real deal.

It is dangerous to project more minutes meaning more points. Babcock might argue McDavid might get more points playing 21 minutes a night instead of 25.

It is an optimization problem, and is not linear.

godot10

Kinger_Oil.redux:
hunter1909,

–While you are at it, the ice still sucks as well.

– Really disappointing they don’t have the the best ice in the league

– It really was an advantage at Northlands back in the day: a skill team with great ice.Now the puck bobbles around as the period goes on.Players think its a joke, despite the so-called improvements

– Billion dollar arena with bush-league ice, for the most northern hockey team: bush

– McDavid et al would score a bunch more with better ice where they could control the puck

The fans paying big money for tickets don’t like to be cold, even in Edmonton….hence bad ice.

Foege Foegele Torpe

hunter1909:
TO ALL:

Apologies for appearing to diss our wonderful Doctor Drai. Which I didn’t intend to do.

All I was doing is thinking out loud about cap space, an issue I have little understanding of.

You’re the truest of true fans, the summertime ones. I would prefer to jump off a train trestle than offend any of you.

This is more like it!
was that so hard?

OriginalPouzar

hunter1909: I believe the contract(paychecks) were a huge distraction. Although given the terribadness of the entire season save 97 plus crumbs of hope, I don’t think it is anything that’s going to remain for long. That said,he works and plays for a management who seemingly enjoy riding players of note(eg the current Hart Trophy winner) out of town.

As a betting man I give Leon an odds on shot to come out of the gate flying, becausehe seems to be possess super high quality “hockey character”.

No offence but that didn’t answer the question at all which was:

What is you evidence for his supposed regression?

OriginalPouzar

Nix: This.
Was Drake given a wink wink deal that he would play certain minutes if he signed here? Thats what was theorized ad nauseum based on his over deployment. If true, I absolutely believe playing with Draisaitl was front and center in Rieders negotiation. And Im a-ok with this if it means watching less of Lucics glacial grind.

Rieder was express in an interview earlier this month that potentially playing on Drai’s line because of their history had nothing to do with him signing here and was not a selling feature.

OriginalPouzar

Wilde: Edited after relentless criticism, merciless slandering and heartless disparagement and assassination of my mind and character, FROM WHICH I MAY NEVER RECOVER:

McDavid with the Mystery Man – 4.39 GF/60 / / 61.54 GF% – 109 minutes

McDavid without the Mystery Man – 3.55 GF/60 / / 56.59 GF% – 1234 minutes

The Mystery Man without McDavid – 3.45 GF/60 / / 58.06 GF% – 313 minutes

The Mystery Man without 97 or 29 – 2.54 GF/60 / / 50.00 GF% – 236 minutes

29 without 97 or the Mystery Man – 2.18 GF/60 / / 36.36 GF% – 551 minutes

The Oilers with none of them – 1.43 GF/60 / / 39.64 GF% – 1849 minutes

Him and McDavid would dominate for Sochi.

OriginalPouzar

In addition to Grayson Downing signing an AHL deal with Colorado, Kyle Platzer has signed an AHL deal with Charlotte.

hunter1909

OriginalPouzar: For some cap space, the GM could simply not have

This to my angle, is something that’s like going to visit relatives for Sunday dinner and then proceeding to rip open the walls to inspect their wiring. Isn’t that supposed to be the job of the GM? Since when for example, did GM’s even figure into normal hockey talk? If the GM is too incompetent to run a freaking budget(which the cap is in any other parlance) he needs to be sacked on the spot.

Chiarelli comes across like a passive-aggressive Matt Groening character.

hunter1909

OriginalPouzar: Contract aside, I would like to know if you still feel he regressed this past year.

I believe the contract(paychecks) were a huge distraction. Although given the terribadness of the entire season save 97 plus crumbs of hope, I don’t think it is anything that’s going to remain for long. That said, he works and plays for a management who seemingly enjoy riding players of note(eg the current Hart Trophy winner) out of town.

As a betting man I give Leon an odds on shot to come out of the gate flying, because he seems to be possess super high quality “hockey character”.

OriginalPouzar

Oilman99: Leon has already expressed his desire to play with Rieder ,they have chemistry having already played together, Lucic will have to earn his shot at playing with him.

1) Could you please provide the quote where he’s expressed this desire (as you’ve mentioned it before).

2) It doesn’t really matter who Leon wants to play with. It matters who the coach decides to deploy the lineup and he should not be taking orders from his 22 year old 2nd line center.

3) Any “chemistry” between Leon and Rieder for Germany in international play means nothing as far as the NHL goes. It means about as much to me as chemistry in junior and in early preseason games (POS/Comrie for example).

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Very interesting. A few weeks ago I was engaged in an argument over whether Matthews is better than Eichel, and was shocked to see Matthews at the top of the league in goals/60 (by far) and 3rd in points/60. If he played as many minutes as other young stars, he’d be head-and-shoulders above them all save McDavid. He’s the real deal.

Matthews is a stud and will be a top 5 forward in the league within a few years if he stays healthy.

With that said, remember when McDavid just decided he was going to score more goals in the last quarter of the season and then he just scored all the goals? He was 2.3G/60 at 5 on 5 for the last 20 games.

If McDavid wants to win the Richard, McDavid will win the Richard.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Woodguy v2.0: Way to not upgrade RD from 15/16 until now.

Are you sure you’re a Pete fan and not a Tambo fan?

– good catch – for D exclude chia guys. A better gm be like:

Klef-Demers
Nurse-Shattenkirk
Davidson-Franson

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: No he is just the highest paid next choice!

I don’t see any other player on the team that is anything close to a lock to perform better than Lucic at 2LW.

OriginalPouzar

hunter1909:
TO ALL:

Apologies for appearing to diss our wonderful Doctor Drai. Which I didn’t intend to do.

All I was doing is thinking out loud about cap space, an issue I have little understanding of.

You’re the truest of true fans, the summertime ones. I would prefer to jump off a train trestle than offend any of you.

Contract aside, I would like to know if you still feel he regressed this past year.

For some cap space, the GM could simply not have signed a 30 year old goalie with no established success in North American in April and likely signed Steve Mason for a third of the amount to compete with Montoya for the back up job (or an equivalent of Steve Mason).

Nix

Oilman99: Leon has already expressed his desire to play with Rieder ,they have chemistry having already played together, Lucic will have to earn his shot at playing with him.

This.
Was Drake given a wink wink deal that he would play certain minutes if he signed here? Thats what was theorized ad nauseum based on his over deployment. If true, I absolutely believe playing with Draisaitl was front and center in Rieders negotiation. And Im a-ok with this if it means watching less of Lucics glacial grind.

frjohnk

Kinger_Oil.redux: Maroon-McD-Ebs
Pouliot-Drai-Yak
Hall-RNH-Pool
Kharia-Brodziak-KAssia

Klef-Demers
Nurse-Jultz
Sek-Benning

I think I would look at trading Hall for Cody Ceci

or maybe a signed Kevin Shattenkirk.

or Travis Hamonic.

Or somehow snag Griffin Reinhart with Hall.

And Id make sure the trade is

One for one.

Wilde

Wilde:
McDavid with the Mystery Man – 4.39 GF/60

McDavid without the Mystery Man – 3.55 GF/60

The Mystery Man without McDavid – 3.45 GF/60

The Mystery Man without 97 or 29 – 2.54 GF/60

29 without 97 or the Mystery Man – 2.18 GF/60

The Oilers with none of them – 1.43 GF/60

Edited after relentless criticism, merciless slandering and heartless disparagement and assassination of my mind and character, FROM WHICH I MAY NEVER RECOVER:

McDavid with the Mystery Man – 4.39 GF/60 / / 61.54 GF% – 109 minutes

McDavid without the Mystery Man – 3.55 GF/60 / / 56.59 GF% – 1234 minutes

The Mystery Man without McDavid – 3.45 GF/60 / / 58.06 GF% – 313 minutes

The Mystery Man without 97 or 29 – 2.54 GF/60 / / 50.00 GF% – 236 minutes

29 without 97 or the Mystery Man – 2.18 GF/60 / / 36.36 GF% – 551 minutes

The Oilers with none of them – 1.43 GF/60 / / 39.64 GF% – 1849 minutes

frjohnk

rickithebear: Russel and nurses numbers are the same with Larsson.

Small sample size.

Only GF% is about the same.

Most shot metric battles are worse when Russell is with Larsson than when compared to Nurse/Larsson.

And the High Danger Shot Attempt battle?

The team does better with Nurse with Larsson than when Russell is paired with Larsson, and thats not even taking into account that Nurse and Larsson face the tougher competion.

I dont mind Russell, he is actually pretty good at two other things rarely ever mentioned here. Loose puck recoveries and he is near the top of uncontrolled zone exits ( there is value in this as it a safe play, yes he is at the low end of controlled zone exits and that is an issue, but we can talk about that later ) I think he had a decent year for us last year.

But Russell is just is a lower tier Dman than Nurse.

jtblack

Woodguy v2.0: First thing I said to G when I saw the list.

“WTF Hansen?”

Went back through the numbers and he achieved all 4 “gates” we make players pass through to achieve “elite”

I always felt he was a “solid” player bit didnt know he was near Elite. Again, good for him

Woodguy v2.0

Kinger_Oil.redux: Maroon-McD-Ebs
Pouliot-Drai-Yak
Hall-RNH-Pool
Kharia-Brodziak-KAssia

Klef-Demers
Nurse-Jultz
Sek-Benning

– This is a multiple Cup winning team already, the dream is dead, we won’t even win one now

– Am I doing it right?

Way to not upgrade RD from 15/16 until now.

Are you sure you’re a Pete fan and not a Tambo fan?

Woodguy v2.0

Scungilli Slushy: Wasn’t that GF%?

Almost the same thing.

Goal rates are great, but only if they’re greater than the goals against.

In the samples I showed earlier with 25-6 the TOI samples got down to ~200 min in spots and goals are almost random in that size of sample.

Woodguy v2.0

Wilde:
McDavid with the Mystery Man – 4.39 GF/60

McDavid without the Mystery Man – 3.55 GF/60

The Mystery Man without McDavid – 3.45 GF/60

The Mystery Man without 97 or 29 – 2.54 GF/60

29 without 97 or the Mystery Man – 2.18 GF/60

The Oilers with none of them – 1.43 GF/60

What was the CF% and GF%?

hunter1909

Woodguy v2.0: Hossa went from 1 pt to 75pts under Jacques Martin.

Would have never happened under any other coach.

lol

celt logic at its finest

hunter1909

ArmchairGM: Lines? What lines? Just throw your names into the McBLENDER!!

Not to be confused with the original, superior(by Katz’s OBC standard) MacBLENDER!!

ArmchairGM

Woodguy v2.0: Reider played 744 5v5 minutes in ARI

Rieder’s C’s in ARI:
Stepan 311min – 1st line
Dvorák 179 min – 2nd line

Rieder played 250 minutes in LAK

Rieder’s C’s in LAK
Carter 132 min – 2nd line
Kopitar 53 min – 1st line

679 of his 994 5v5 minutes last year was spent in the top 6.

So when you say “It seems like Oilers fans are forgetting the fact that Rieder is a bottom-6 player. ”

It’s probably better stated “I think he’s a bottom 6 player but I have no idea who he played with and in what capacity”

Bottom-6 production. His. Whole. Career.

The fact he played with 1 and 2C’s and only achieved 4-line boxcars just reinforces that he doesn’t belong.

Woodguy v2.0

Bank Shot: Regardless he went from 9 points to 70ish under McLellan’s watch.

I suspect it would be hard to find a player that had a bigger developmental leap in that time period.

Hossa went from 1 pt to 75pts under Jacques Martin.

Would have never happened under any other coach.