Kicks

by Lowetide

In the 1960’s, I was too young to know what was cool and what was uncool. It led to many decisions based on personal taste as opposed to peer pressure. For instance, I liked the Monkees far more than the Beatles (my brother sent thousands of fists my way over that one), the VW Beetle more than the sports cars of the day, and collecting baseball and hockey cards.

My lifetime of nerdiness established and known to all but me, I made choices that, upon reflection, look decidedly unimpressive. For example, I love, love, loved the song “Kicks” by a band called Paul Revere and the Raiders. I liked more of their songs, not just that one. Paul Revere and the Raiders would appear on television wearing the damndest things, and I liked them anyway. Wherever cool was, they lived in the next town over. Didn’t matter.

Sometimes in life, things are just good and you have to admit it no matter the consequences. Preferring the Monkees to the Beatles cost me some lumps, and singing “Kicks just keep getting harder to find” while walking around our house wasn’t a friend getter, but you are what you are. If you see or hear quality, acknowledge it and own it. Those things are what make you unique.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

TOP 20 PROSPECTS

I’ve been running a top 20 prospects list every summer for absolutely ages. The first time I published a list was summer 2003, via hfboards. It’s in the archives of this blog now, I want to repurpose it here in order to point out just how much we don’t know when ranking these young men.

  • Marc Pouliot, Colin McDonald, Jean-Francois Jacques, Mikhail Zhukov and Kalle Olsson had all been drafted in the days before publishing. The 2013 draft picks not listed here who made the NHL include Kyle Brodziak (847) and Zack Stortini (257).
  • I was a fan of Jani Rita and make no apologies. He scored a goal at the (I think) 1999 WJ’s that sealed the deal for me, but the Oilers didn’t love him like the fans. Rita had a long and successful career in Finland after heading back home.
  • Raffi Torres was held in high regard and delivered. He would have had a long career if not for Raffi Torres.
  • Matt Greene was ranked late in the top 10, I’d rank him there again. NHL teams can find shutdown defensemen easier than puck movers. That said, Greene could skate and well, might have been an idea to move him up a few spots.
  • Some free agents (MA Bergeron, Ty Conklin) would emerge as time went by. Sniff.
  • My final independent summer list, 2017, is here. Summer 2003 to summer 2017 is 15 years, that’s a long, long time. I enjoyed every minute of it.

THE ATHLETIC TOP 20

This blog started with a few ideas, chief among them to take bias out of the conversation (as much as possible) to allow for a neutral starting point for posters. I wanted you to arrive here, read the prose, be entertained and informed, and then we could begin a conversation about the subject at hand. It’s impossible to spend 15 summers ranking a top 20 list without letting bias get in the way and I was absolutely guilty time and again.

My move to The Athletic allows me all kinds of new experiences and the top prospects list was a major one for me. I’ve watched other sites reach consensus and for me that’s a great way to iron out the bias. I was also curious to know if my rankings would be out of time with others (and vice versa) when Jonathan Willis set about compiling four lists (his, mine, Scott Wheeler’s and Corey Pronman’s) into one ranking for the summer 2018 top 20.

Jon published the list of defencemen and goalies ranked outside the top 20 (here) and my list of forwards who didn’t make the cut were just published and are here.

I wondered how my rankings would differ from the group. I wondered specifically about Joe Gambardella, who in my opinion has enough going on that we might be dealing with a small “p” Pisani if things break right. I wondered if the three other gentlemen voting would give “Kicks” Gambardella a proper hearing, and also wondered if I let bias get in the way when the player’s numbers didn’t warrant a bold number (despite my belief in him as a prospect).

As it turned out, I ranked Gambardella one spot higher than consensus. I’m thrilled by that outcome, because a player that impressed me a lot but didn’t have the numbers got a fair shake in the overall rankings. I’m satisfied with the entire list, truth to tell.

You will see the results as the days roll by, but I’m happy to say differences in the group were minimal and exactly one player in my top 20 missed the cut (he is ranked No. 22 on the final list, I had him No. 18). It tells me two things: I may have improved since 2003, and when you rank prospects at a specific time it is exactly that process. What happens afterward, after the photo, cannot be predicted. I couldn’t know the Oilers head coach simply didn’t see Jani Rita as an NHL player and that Rita would never get 500 at-bats to show what he could do, but that’s not the purpose of the list.

If you haven’t yet subscribed, it’s less than $4 a month right now. I’m proud of The Athletic top 20 this summer, thrilled to work with Jon, Corey and Scott. Hope you enjoy reading today and in the days to come.

Yesterday, Darcy McLeod dropped by with Puck IQ wowy’s for Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson against elites. As if Nurse didn’t need more ammo for his contract negotiations, the numbers are impressive. This is versus elite, DFF percentage.

  • Darnell Nurse with Adam Larsson (48.1)
  • Darnell Nurse without Adam Larsson (50.2)
  • Adam Larsson without Darnell Nurse (49.8)
  • Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson both off (46.7)

We know the power of the McDavid zoom, but that’s some good defense right there for the young Nurse. Two years, $3.5 per? Does that bring out the Chiarelli searchlight police copter? I think the second pairing should be Nurse-Benning, the third pair Sekera-Russell and if Evan Bouchard makes the team Russell is the one to sit sans injury. Agree?

  • Klefbom-Larsson
  • Nurse-Benning
  • Sekera-Russell
  • ?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning,  TSN1260, we rock and roll with some cool older people. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. Tour de France, Oilers prospects, WHA memories.
  • Schuyler Dixon, AP Dallas/Ft. Worth. The Dallas Cowboys: Are they a playoff team?
  • Bob Nightengale, USA TODAY Sports Major League Baseball columnist, MLB Network Insider. Trade deadline madness.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide text. See you on the radio!

BONUS: MY FAVOURITE SUMMER TOP 20

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rickithebear

Game Theory was born of the simplified start to the field of study and further including more specialized theory of advancement.
So you end up with tiers of more complex specialization in all theory study.

I have said many times that you start with win mechanism of winning.
GF and GA.

Step 2 look back on real history. 20 – 25 years of playoffs and regular seasons.
The final goal is winning a cup.
Looking at the progression a higher % of non top 16 teams in GA make the playoffs than non top 16 GF teams.
Non GA repetitively superior in succes than GF all the way to the Final 4.
I posted the % for each round on another post.
This is game theory.

After the final 4 is when we see religion of portions of the cup core theory.
The final 2 mostbrepresentative of the Cup cores.
It is at the Final 2 we have seen clear standards for success.
A top 5 GA team can win a cup as a bottom 5 GF team.
A top 5 GF team could not win a cup with anything less than top 15 GA
Until a slightly better than bottom 12 GA team won.

Not the cultural game study which was a major function of diplomacy
A game I played from the age of 5.
With zero random influence.
The cultural negotiation aspect.

The game theory you know is based on accepted theories that challenge each other but believe in defined common path to success that is built on each other.
Some believing path to end as only test.
Some believing in Bindirectional equality.

In extreme dynamic play.
Thier is non singular paths but a series of defined binary event mechanism.
That can revdirect youn to any point on a series of success or failure singular paths on a route tree.
That is were you create maps of binary result events of success or failure %.

Having completed 2 years of public admin at Univ of Sask under the commerse core at age16-17.
I developed my initial disdain for stacked path analysis that does not accurately relate.

I have memorized 128000 pieces of equipment in each unit
read all thier manuals.
Reviewed all thier operational logics which are a collection mechanism redirection.
Based on and/or/nor
Reviewed the SOE maps.
These capture the dynamics of the systems.
You identify the high failure potential in logics in SOE.

This is my aproach to hockey.
GF SOE map
GA SOE map.
Thier is a causation affect
GA action on GF potential (Stoping Offensive attack)
GF action on GA potential (forcing Break down of def system)

I identified the high ratio parts In hockey.
Hd:Ld ratio 5:1 500% to 100%
Fwd Even production:Dman even production ratio 4:1
Continue looking at the next highest ratio action.
Continuing to some point were we are dealing with what I Call Table scrap affects. Miniscule % variances.

CA is number born from Off failure.
The only time dmen can influence entry and CA is if a proper NZ trap is run.
Which is a critical ratio born from forward failure of success.
So CA is largely a measure of Forwards GF mechanism
3 forwards
3 forwards + 1 rover
4 forwards
Which affects HD performance GA affect.

At some point there is still levels of measurability in analysis
But the goal diff reward in game win terms is not there.
Table scraps.

I accept your perspective.

But the engineer aproach you discuss is an archaic point of view.
RCM based analysis. Is machine based maintenance anslysis.
With equipment availability point of view.

I work with Michael Obition.
The guy who developed most of Boeing’s RCM intro to the engineering field.
The same man who had a son in the Montreal amateur hockey
and built the current standard of hockey stats page for Montreal regions amateur hockey.
I he saw a clear difference between RCM and human factor failure.
I convinced him to include human factor failure into his existing boiler failure databases and thier relation. Once they were enttered a series of human factor red flagging lit up.
Knew we had nailed something.

Emperical practical large factor analysis is the modern aproach.
Engineering of high acting.
Reduction of High acting failure.
Introduction of high acting success.

Alarm mgmt.
Heat balance
Caloric introduction
Operator board SOE performance.
Human aperformance.
Introduction of design, msintsinence, operation failure
review and avoidance of the high failure actions

So your old understanding does not know of a practical
Emperical aproach I followed that matches the game of hockey.

Thanks for your criticism.

Theory, SOE, Technical contracts, engineer summaries.
Commissioning reports. Operation logic, Maintanence manuals ….
1000 – 1500 pages a day.

Reading the wiki summery of game theory and game study plus the highlighted links to other theories was a quick and enjoyable read.

How long (yrs/decades) have you been at this level of field.

Professor Q

Jethro Tull: Mushy qualifiers are my favourite kind of mushy after peas.

As long as you mind your peas and queues.

Jethro Tull

VOR: I expect you are right. But he doesn’t much care for mushy qualifiers like kind of have to.

It was why I originally left out me. I have since put it back and taken it out again. It’s a science is meant to amuse Ricki and I assume he needs some laughs these days.

Mushy qualifiers are my favourite kind of mushy after peas.

VOR

Jethro Tull: Maybe the missing word is ‘of’ after ‘kind’?

I expect you are right. But he doesn’t much care for mushy qualifiers like kind of have to.

It was why I originally left out me. I have since put it back and taken it out again. It’s a science is meant to amuse Ricki and I assume he needs some laughs these days.

jp

russ99: Again, ignoring the weak side of Benning’s game.

Maybe if we’re more responsible in the back and don’t give up so many open looks, odd man breaks and mismatches, then Talbot won’t lose his confidence this year, which is the real key to the season, not extrapolating shot metrics and wishful thinking for Benning.

To follow up now that I can easily access the SF/SA GF/GA breakdowns (per 60):

2016-17 SF SA GF GA
Russell 27.2 27.5 2.0 1.7
Benning 30.0 27.6 2.7 2.1

2017-18
Russell 30.0 31.7 2.2 2.7
Benning 33.0 31.9 2.7 2.5

Virtually the same number of shots and goals against when Benning and Russell are on the ice. But 3 more shots for and a half goal more per 60 with Benning.

Either all the extra open looks, odd man breaks and mismatches aren’t being converted when Benning is on the ice, or Russell is doing other things that are hurting the team at both ends of the ice.

Jethro Tull

VOR: 2. I wasn’t aware I had a kind. Please explain to what kind I am.

Maybe the missing word is ‘of’ after ‘kind’?

Tesla's Hair

Kinger, Sheps and Jethro. Really appreciate you reaching out to me and for your support during the Toronto job search.

Yes would be great to connect with you and even better to meet you for a coffee. Can you send me a quick hi at deardylan at gmail dot com or let me know the best way to get ahold of you. Thanks.

Rickithebear- hope this forum gives you lots of inspiration to keep on keeping on and adding to your life’s work. My thoughts and prayer just sent your way.

VOR

rickithebear: You kind have to identify the baseline ratios in analytical aproach first.
It defines what % point in game theory equates to 1 goal diff and what is line in sand for that success for the cheapest cap cost.
Dman in pocession of the puck is not the key offensive driver of even offence.
Even goal success from the 27-300 player in most forward point.
4 times more effective.
running a neutral zone trap is critical to Entry results.
Getting the correct skilled players on for pocession and non pocession bench change.
A major complaint of current coaching.
Who takes Face offs were.
Huge factor in CF and CA numbers.
These are critical game theory decisions.
With the largest affect on the game.
Then you get them at lowest cost possible.
Player actions with highest failure affects are what you look at.

1. You haven’t proven failure modelling is the correct modelling tool. It isn’t. Your worst sin is not explaining what failure modelling is to a lay audience. For those of you reading along it is used in engineering to determine things like how long a plane can be in service flying around the world before it falls apart. It has been completely discredited for dealing with human failure in that reductionist failure approaches like Ricki insists on proposing increase the risk of human failure.

2. I wasn’t aware I had a kind. Please explain to what kind I am.

3. Your approach suffers from a dangerous degree of reductionism. Have you never heard the expression “can’t see the forest for the trees.”

4. You really need to learn some game theory since you are wildly misusing the term here.

5. How do you know which players to put on the ice in any situation? You are proposing responding to a decision of your opponent but your model says the behaviour of opponents isn’t important. Here is one of the biggest weaknesses of your model, it is useless in the real world.

6. You haven’t proven Corsi is useful in measuring dmen. I am on record as saying it isn’t. Back in the day I even offered proof. So when you prattle on about Corsi I just see it as another weakness in your theory.

7. Personally I am a fan of E.F. Schumacher. As a coal guy you’ve surely read him. The correct question is does the benefit (net positive effect) out weigh the cost (net negative effect). But like I said since your model does not consider anything but failure it will inevitably give garbage outputs even if you can solve all the methodological problems at the input end.

VanIsleOil

I haven’t been able to open any links in here for some time now?? Anything I can do to rectify this?

jp

russ99: Again, ignoring the weak side of Benning’s game.

Maybe if we’re more responsible in the back and don’t give up so many open looks, odd man breaks and mismatches, then Talbot won’t lose his confidence this year, which is the real key to the season, not extrapolating shot metrics and wishful thinking for Benning.

But your eyes are fooling you, I think.

You asked what is there to recommend Benning aside from CF. Well the answer is also shots, goals, +/-, DFF% vs elites (which measures shot quality), among others.

The ‘weak’ side of Benning’s game results very similar shot against numbers to Russell. The stronger part of Benning’s game (or the weaker part of Russell’s) results in 3 fewer shots for/60 for his teammates.

You don’t have to agree, but there’s a lot more than extrapolated shot metrics to recommend Benning.

russ99

jp: “I know CF carries a ton of weight around here, but please bear with me, what else is there that proves Benning is a better option that Russell?”

Not just CF, also goals.

Again, ignoring the weak side of Benning’s game.

Maybe if we’re more responsible in the back and don’t give up so many open looks, odd man breaks and mismatches, then Talbot won’t lose his confidence this year, which is the real key to the season, not extrapolating shot metrics and wishful thinking for Benning.

jp

Pescador:
Which is…..?

“I know CF carries a ton of weight around here, but please bear with me, what else is there that proves Benning is a better option that Russell?”

Not just CF, also goals.

OriginalPouzar

Richard S.S.:
The D will be
Klefbom and Larson
…………. and Benning
Sekera and Bouchard
………….
Matthew Benning, Kris Russell, Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard will rotate each game with three playing and 1 sitting until Bouchard gets his nine or a decision is made on his future.

I don’t see this happening at all. I don’t see Darnell Nurse being a healthy scratch at all.

He was 5th in the NHL in ES TOI/G last year and, while i can see his over TOI reduce a bit this coming year, not by sitting in the press box.

rickithebear

VOR: Each step in your theory is conceptually flawed. Worse you have chosen a modelling approach that will provide nothing of value. Failure in a dynamic system is a process not a moment. You can’t chose a time X or an event Y to freeze the system and getting anything but garbage.

I am trying to make sure that if you insist on wasting valuable moments of your cancer treatment on hockey analytics you apply enough intellectual rigour to make the investment of time worthwhile. If nobody takes the time to understand your musings and to correct the obvious logical flaws then you can’t improve your thinking and create a robust fully developed theory. You clearly need a peer to review your work given there hasn’t been any advancement in your thinking in the years I have been reading you. While you have never provided any data you have said enough about the model for me to realize it is irretrievably flawed. So I will limit my review to that.

Let’s start with the fact your model is way too simplistic. Nowhere in it have you made any allowance for game theory. There are two teams on the ice during a hockey game. Hockey being the fastest game on earth great defence is about coming up with a useful response to what the team on offence is doing. Yet you’ve built a model that makes no allowance for what the offence is doing. Beyond shot origination you are black boxing the offence rendering any comment you make about defence meaningless.

The best defence is a strong offence and that is nowhere in your model either. In fact you’ve made it abundantly clear you think only GA matter. Why ignore half the game? You talk about deltas but ignore half the formula. It is GF-GA = GD.

Additionally, by the time a player has the puck in your box the defence has already messed up in a lot of different ways. None of which are in your model. Where is the analysis of how good a job the forwards do of covering for a pinching D. And that is one of dozens of examples.

Now I could go on and on pointing out the flaws in your model but I want to see the corrections and refinements I’ve suggested implemented before I bother.

Forward coverage is in Goal diff modelling.
Goals for models is part of goal diff success map.
And part of idiotic
PDO.
Shooting % is not repeatable.
Thier are multitude of affected mechanical actions that lead to counter attack starting points.
Or
Successful Defence.

Watch how much of the disorganization is driven by decisions (coach theory) in play.

I Stated on one of my posts here that sports logics computer break down of video and future puck movement tracking will take analytics in the area more complex than my base analysis. In an area our are likley working towards.

But those are individualized detailed moments that need to be partnered with video review.

minute % measures are looked at after
1. identified large ratio mechanism flaws 5:1; 4-1; 3-1; 2-1; 1.5-1
2. High success routes (game theory decisions) in Goal diff success tree.
3. Flawed player mechanics that yield negative results ( video identified and coached out.)
4. A poor decision can be negative without being a pocession change in the route tree.
It paths to failure and usually is the point of largest % drop,in avroute tree path.
All baselines avg to compare against

But when 5 of the leading theoretical failure modellers are now large % baseline failure analytics.
What they call baseline Emperical approach.
They and I say you have to identify Practical high success simplified industrial mechanics solutions that will give you the best return on the dollar.

You kind have to identify the baseline ratios in analytical aproach first.
It defines what % point in game theory equates to 1 goal diff and what is line in sand for that success for the cheapest cap cost.

Dman in pocession of the puck is not the key offensive driver of even offence.
Even goal success from the 27-300 player in most forward point.
4 times more effective.

running a neutral zone trap is critical to Entry results.

Getting the correct skilled players on for pocession and non pocession bench change.
A major complaint of current coaching.

Who takes Face offs were.
Huge factor in CF and CA numbers.

These are critical game theory decisions.
With the largest affect on the game.
Then you get them at lowest cost possible.

Player actions with highest failure affects are what you look at.

Richard S.S.

The D will be
Klefbom and Larson
…………. and Benning
Sekera and Bouchard
………….
Matthew Benning, Kris Russell, Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard will rotate each game with three playing and 1 sitting until Bouchard gets his nine or a decision is made on his future.

rickithebear

Now the fan:
Have always wanted to own fitted hats for my favourite teams.
Lids has clearance prices on hats.
With some selected hats another 40% off.

My wife thought it was a great idea

Oilers since 94 my 2nd & 3rd hats
https://www.lids.ca/edmonton-oilers-adidas-nhl-structured-flex-cap/20969770

https://www.lids.ca/edmonton-oilers-ccm-nhl-ccm-structured-flex-cap/20935498
$11.34

Detroit lions
https://www.lids.ca/detroit-lions-new-era-nfl-camo-two-tone-9fifty-snapback-cap/20854425

My 2nd riders hat:
https://www.lids.ca/saskatchewan-roughriders-new-era-cfl-mega-team-neo-39thirty-cap/20969380
Darker green version with upper half of front decal across the fitted back. $12.00

My Favourite historical video team.
https://www.lids.ca/brooklyn-dodgers-47-mlb-47-holbrook-cap/20900871

My wife thought I should get a blue jays hat: (Expo Guy)
https://www.lids.ca/toronto-blue-jays-47-mlb-black-on-black-clean-up-cap/20968257
It is tonal pop navy on navy clean up cap withe white border around the jay.

My 10 yea old son ordered a cubs hat:
https://www.lids.com/chicago-cubs-47-mlb-47-wayside-cap/20900851

We picked them up Tuesday my son liked a whole bunch of blue jays hats.
We went to the car and gave him my blue jays hat.

During my consult was told all or most of my hair will not return.
I will need hats I said.

Then I showed my wife LT,s blog on pennants.
LT: Pennets was a game change for me. 2 championship teams, 28 losers.
Wife agreed.
Said cannot wear any hats from direct competition teams
NHL Western Conference
MLB American League
NFL National Football Conference
CFL none
NBA went into history of bad boys
– Jordon playoffs versus BB 10w – 12L .445%
– Birds playoff record versus BB 8W – 14L .346%
– Rodman said they will not let me defend him. Birds playoff record after 4W – 11L .267
– Manic Johnson’s playoff record versus BB 4W – 5L .444%
Thomas, Lambier, Mahorn, Rodman. Nasty!

Thanks LT for today:
Teams I cheered for before oilers.
To 78-79 age 5-14yr
https://www.lids.ca/montreal-canadiens-ccm-ccm-nhl-m892z-structured-flex-cap/20940834 $11.34

79-80 to 94-95
Nordiques ccm light blue/navy blue mesh mfg embroidery puck error. $11.34
Fits the demise!

Oilers 4th hat:
https://www.lids.ca/edmonton-oilers-ccm-ccm-nhl-m892z-structured-flex-cap/20940842 $11.34

Fan of 50 year old Gordie:
https://www.lids.ca/detroit-red-wings-47-nhl-curved-47-mvp/20717510 $11.34

Just love the colours:
https://www.lids.ca/new-york-islanders-zephyr-nhl-staple-adjustable-hat/20788627

My oldest in New Brunswick for a year
Cause he does not think He can handle
The process of clean
Dealing with angst of dad sick.

4 months
No primary school kids
Blood draws
Surgical masks
Showers
No hair
Nausea.
Pain

NHL Center ice
NFL
My hats
4 months of Athletic.
Lowetide baby!

Thanks LT:
Funny what things that you know will get you bye in the fight to
Be there for my kids for more than 2-3 years.

LT: what is your Favourite NFL team?

Melvis

maudite,

In a way. I can only say there aren’t too many white Canadian boys from the prairies that spent any time in some lowdown hole ambitiously called a club, in South La – and got away with it. And perhaps the better for it – spending that time on wrong side of the tracks. The experiences enhance one’s perspective…like collared greens and chitlins. I was young and stupid. Which might explain getting away with it.

Mark Gordon. There’s more than one. Mark was a VP with Motown and Barry Gordy. He ran west coast until Gordy moved the ops out there, thus making his position redundant He then went off on his own as a talent manager. The stable included the Staples, Marilyn McCoo and Billy Davis from the Fifth Dimension, Tony Orlando and Dawn , Al Wison, and others. The MOR acts certainly weren’t my favorite at the time, but it was a decent gig in terms of paying the rent. And Tony Orlando ended up with a no.1 tv show at the time. This gave me an incredible view behind the scenes of what passed for network tv at the time.

VOR

rickithebear:
When Atco built the 2 units at sheerness.
The screwed the process as bad as possible.
Pre 1 year lawsuit with major contractor.
6 lawsuits against major contractors on failed systems
With test reports indicated handed by lead Atco engineers.
Years later found by me miss filled and all failed tests not meeting requirements.
5 failed delivery by sub contractors approved subs.

From that Atco set up a standard based on worst run progect.

Must achieve a minimum of 40% analyzed gain from current 100% cost vs.ue.

Gross income
– capital conversion/ life of plant per year
– maintenance cost of new plant versus original maintenance cost.
– operational cost origional operator staff and fuel cost versus new ops staff fuel costs.

Expected(Pool) income (Corsi)
Less expected costs (HD affect)
Expected net income ( expected GA)
This has to show a 40% reduction in soft analysis.

Annual Pool income accrued (Corsix,y)
– minus annual capital cost (blocks)
– minus annual maintenance cost ( misses)
– minus annual fuel cost ( closed shots)
= Annual fixed income (open shot x,y) (Dpair established expected save%)
– annual operation cost ( goalies +/- save% performance)
Net income (true GA)
As an example
These were set up to have cost mechanism and potentials to match def measure mechanisms.

HD measure:
Corsix,y to expected GA (xGA) 85% accurate.
Is really a Def triangle analysis. (2D – 1G)
But can be separated by sides xGA and goalie general save % to each side.

Combined HD/0% Corsi measures.
Corsi to openshot x,y (Dpair established save % to each side) 95% accurate

Expected save%. – goalie save% performance ( close to 100% measure)
Goalie def measure.

Defensive triangle should be differentiated (broken down) by 3 potential structures.
(2D – 1G)
(1rover – 1D – 1G)
(1 fwd – 1D – 1G)
With dmen ending up with 3 potential positions.
The resulting expected save% and Real goalie save% performance.

The process:
1. Explain HD density shot theory. (Corsix,y – shotx,y)
The goal diff tree sub theories.
Resultant d and goalie

2. Explain Table hockey goalie/Open Corsi theories
open shot= corsi – (blocks+misses+closed shots)
The goal diff sub tree theories
Identifies the elite 0% corsi reduction and Elite Open Save % goalies.

3. Combine the 2 defensive affects
Open shotx,y = Corsix,y – (blocks+misses+closed shots)x,y
Creates a true open shot (greater than .1% chance) shot chart
identifies true Elite combined (HD/Opensh) Dmen(Larrson)
Identifies true Elite combined (HD/Opensh) goalies

4. Introduces 3 true HD def triangle structures.
(2D – 1G)
(1rover – 1D – 1G) Offensive Dmen are offensive
(#4fwd – 1D – 1G) Offensive Dmen are really Forwards. (New)
Depth of OZ penetration
And return time to 2D structure differentiates the 3.

Congratulations to those who graduated to step three in the learning process.

Step 4 takes us to position identification by % of structure occupied and introduces the final group of theories in defensive measure.

It will be interesting to See our pocession structure at point of turnover (Failure) what dmen are not truly dmen?

Annual pool income accrued
– Capital costs
does not tell us much.

Each step in your theory is conceptually flawed. Worse you have chosen a modelling approach that will provide nothing of value. Failure in a dynamic system is a process not a moment. You can’t chose a time X or an event Y to freeze the system and getting anything but garbage.

I am trying to make sure that if you insist on wasting valuable moments of your cancer treatment on hockey analytics you apply enough intellectual rigour to make the investment of time worthwhile. If nobody takes the time to understand your musings and to correct the obvious logical flaws then you can’t improve your thinking and create a robust fully developed theory. You clearly need a peer to review your work given there hasn’t been any advancement in your thinking in the years I have been reading you. While you have never provided any data you have said enough about the model for me to realize it is irretrievably flawed. So I will limit my review to that.

Let’s start with the fact your model is way too simplistic. Nowhere in it have you made any allowance for game theory. There are two teams on the ice during a hockey game. Hockey being the fastest game on earth great defence is about coming up with a useful response to what the team on offence is doing. Yet you’ve built a model that makes no allowance for what the offence is doing. Beyond shot origination you are black boxing the offence rendering any comment you make about defence meaningless.

The best defence is a strong offence and that is nowhere in your model either. In fact you’ve made it abundantly clear you think only GA matter. Why ignore half the game? You talk about deltas but ignore half the formula. It is GF-GA = GD.

Additionally, by the time a player has the puck in your box the defence has already messed up in a lot of different ways. None of which are in your model. Where is the analysis of how good a job the forwards do of covering for a pinching D. And that is one of dozens of examples.

Now I could go on and on pointing out the flaws in your model but I want to see the corrections and refinements I’ve suggested implemented before I bother.

maudite

Lee C Fields?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3rIA-BCZ0E

Melvis:
Melvis,

I was working for Marc Gordon Prods at one time as the in house road manager. This one had me ferreting Al Wilson around the US on the back of his No 1 hit Show and Tell. He fronted the O’Jays and the Temptations on various dates. I’m a bit distracted…

I Love Music

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIROc9l_0IU&frags=pl%2Cwn

Melvis

To be fair. It’s probably difficult quantifying data over raising the cup over one’s head five times. Despite all the the daily bitching. You had to be there. It leads to a dependency on historical emotional factors. Hard to overcome in the light of day. It’s akin to applying math to “soulstruck”.

Nobody has ever cooked up a a definition for what might constitute art. And there’s an inherent art to the game that defies description.

Foege Foegele Torpe

jp: Hmmmm…. How about actual +/- and 5X5 goal differential two years in a row?

Which is…..?

Melvis

Melvis,

I was working for Marc Gordon Prods at one time as the in house road manager. This one had me ferreting Al Wilson around the US on the back of his No 1 hit Show and Tell. He fronted the O’Jays and the Temptations on various dates. I’m a bit distracted…

I Love Music

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIROc9l_0IU&frags=pl%2Cwn

Melvis

Professor Q,

Checkin it out.

Professor Q

Melvis:
Rundgren throws Hall that little grin around 1:40. If you’ve never played in a band, that’s what it’s all about. There’s a book in there somewhere.

Have you heard the Chromeo version?

They are one of my favourite Canadian groups (at least based on their early works, as I wasn’t a fan of White Women and haven’t heard their newest album).

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WOE1-2Fza5Q

I think Hall really enjoyed this one.

Professor Q

Scungilli Slushy: It’s why you have to pull your pants up, airborne bacteria. Fashion is not a good reason for it, IMO. Far too irritating.

As long as you pull your pants up by your boot strings, as the moral of the story goes.

Melvis

Rundgren throws Hall that little grin around 1:40. If you’ve never played in a band, that’s what it’s all about. There’s a book in there somewhere.

jp

russ99: I think it’s twofold, the coach’s trust in Russell and distrust in Benning.

I know CF carries a ton of weight around here, but please bear with me, what else is there that proves Benning is a better option that Russell?Because what I saw on the ice from Benning when we didn’t have the puck wasn’t good, and I watched all 82.

Hmmmm…. How about actual +/- and 5X5 goal differential two years in a row?

Melvis
who

OriginalPouzar: Yes, agreed, which is why the post your responded to had the following:

“A key to the season for me is Matt Benning and his ability to take that 2RD spot and run with it – if he can do that and Russell can truly play 3rd pairing at evens, I like the overall look of the defence.”

LOL
I know you are in the habit of repeating yourself OP. But this post is overkill.

Scungilli Slushy

Melvis:
I’ve now seen just about everything taken into account. With the exception of butt crack itch. It’s an important element, but essentially unquantifiable.

It’s why you have to pull your pants up, airborne bacteria. Fashion is not a good reason for it, IMO. Far too irritating.

Scungilli Slushy

rickithebear:
Now started process for stem cell transplant.
Targeted for mid sept/begin October start-up.
Most are more elderly patients with empty nest.
Highest risk is when Emune system completely distorted by Chemo.
3-4 weeks for stems to take and emune system to start improving.

Most normally go home after a month.

Based on hospitalized illness history
Consult recommends 2 bed apt.
With caregiver family member.
4 months away from my 2 primary school disease transmitters
Daily immune checks instead of checks every 2 days recommended.
Mobile lab tech cost covered by Atco.

My thoughts and hope are with you Ricki

Melvis

And I’m a Philly and other soul fanatic. Cee Lo Green and Darryl. There’s a lot of good studff from his house.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yxoob6aPtk&list=PLPOME9uZhXzFyfROfCiHtv4FeVYqD_fze&index=4&frags=pl%2Cwn

maudite

I like this. When oil cratered and that whim I just had to burn a consulting gig I was permanent pen in on to chase overseas type stuff so I was left in lurch:

I took one swing down to Calgary realized it was a zombie land…said screw it and worked a million odd jobs. Whatever.

I happened to be in Yukon/Alaska trying slyicing/gold mine equipment operator zero resumes out and people hearing about me randomly through odd places like fiance of daughter who is casual friends of parents or whatever started handing cards to other people saying that i should get a hold of them if i wanted instructor jobs or whatever.

Out of blue living in my van in southern bc debating picking at a garlic farm or harvesting weed with friends type stuff another left field phone call for back on the cash boat oil jobs reached out…i pushed it back until I was near busted and accepted I probably should go back to wearing adult pants and ooof all is well….everywgere I went in that van even like odd grocery stores in little towns people kept just wanting me to work if I wanted. The minute I decided fuck it and just started doing stuff instead of dreading my fate everything just started slowly but surely opening up.

Jethro Tull: I have been on numerous hiring committees.One thing that always stands out is if someone has stayed stagnant – ie: Waiting for the perfect job.

There’s three possibilities:

1) Right job at the right time
2) Wrong job at the right time
3) Right job at the wrong time

#1 is what you’re aiming for, but if you’re sat across from us and (I’ve heard this more than once) say “I haven’t been working because there’s nothing out there”, then I have to say that’s a big turn off for many recruiters.We realize that you want a job doing what you worked so hard for.But that doesn’t mean you should have done nothing up until then.

If you’re having trouble finding employment in your field of expertise, we’d rather hear “I took a job at Wal-Mart to keep the bills paid, but I’m also gaining different perspectives in team-work, time managment, etc.”Something positive that shows that you don’t let the grass grow under your feet, and it’s all about the spin on what can carry over and be a benefit to your prospective employer.

Unlike one of my distant relatives who was laid off for two years and “could only go back to a management position.”He was 35yo. and a welder by trade.His partner had the patience of a saint, especially when his EI ran out and she was struggling to support the family on her wage alone.He was offered jobs back on the tools.

Get yourself out there, stay positive, and who knows, maybe you find you enjoy doing something you may not have contemplated before!

unca miltie

all the best for you during this trying time Ricki

Melvis

What am listening to? I love eccentrics!

Life’s Too Short

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkC4tYCNG4s&list=PLPOME9uZhXzFyfROfCiHtv4FeVYqD_fze

Melvis

rickithebear: Mobile lab tech cost covered by Atco.

I think that’s great really. And good luck with that most dreaded of diseases Riki. I’m far more empathetic than the sarc indicates. My mom is a cancer survivor. And I’ve lost a couple of really close friends to breast cancer.

You, of course, are in my “remover of difficulties” prayers. Those of which I’m capable sitting on the fence between belief and cynicism.

Melvis

I’ve now seen just about everything taken into account. With the exception of butt crack itch. It’s an important element, but essentially unquantifiable.

rickithebear

Now started process for stem cell transplant.
Targeted for mid sept/begin October start-up.
Most are more elderly patients with empty nest.
Highest risk is when Emune system completely distorted by Chemo.
3-4 weeks for stems to take and emune system to start improving.

Most normally go home after a month.

Based on hospitalized illness history
Consult recommends 2 bed apt.
With caregiver family member.
4 months away from my 2 primary school disease transmitters
Daily immune checks instead of checks every 2 days recommended.
Mobile lab tech cost covered by Atco.

Professor Q

N64: And I thought Woodguy and Woodguy 2.0 was just being ambidextrous. When you argued with yourself here… now that was confusing. You never can remember which hand is which.

Whichever one gains the upper hand in that moment, of course.

Melvis

N64: My original account can log in, can post, but the posts never show up

There’s something to be said for that. Mutual clap clap.

Melvis

Wilde:
The amount of time that the broadcast is showing highlights/random stuff during a faceoff and the first 10 seconds thereafter is so, so irritating.

Let’s show a closeup of a meaningless pass, or peer up the nostrils of some guy on the bench before he spits straight in the direction of the camera instead of showing who wins an in-zone faceoff and what they do with it.

Might just start grabbing endzone/multi cam feeds and using those. This is getting ridiculous.

Hockey, unfortunately, pictures more poorly from a broadcast standpoint than any other competitive team or one on one sport. And the only way to get it right are some tracking overhead cams for the full 60 minutes.

And even that fails to reveal everything.

It’s a bit like having four people at four corners witnessing a car accident. They all differ in pov. Someone on a balcony overhead might see it differently. And some a block earlier witnessed a car jinking around, while speeding and slowing. Some querolous old man gesticulating and swearing at something.

Thing is, no one saw a couple of wasps crawl out of the air vents of an old car that sat unattended in a driveway over the previous month. No one saw multiple stings resulting in a heart attack in the making.

Three dead and the resulting autopsy didn’t conclude anything more than cause of death. Heart attack.

Admittedly. I’m stretching it a bit. But then Atco screwup =yada yada…and I went over that about four times. I’ll keep it in mind the next time I’m watching a game and Talbot screws the pooch on a first shot floater from 30 feet out.

N64

Woodguy v2.0: That’s exactly why I’m Woodguy v2.0.

My original account can log in, can post, but the posts never show up

And I thought Woodguy and Woodguy 2.0 was just being ambidextrous. When you argued with yourself here… now that was confusing. You never can remember which hand is which.

Wilde

The amount of time that the broadcast is showing highlights/random stuff during a faceoff and the first 10 seconds thereafter is so, so irritating.

Let’s show a closeup of a meaningless pass, or peer up the nostrils of some guy on the bench before he spits straight in the direction of the camera instead of showing who wins an in-zone faceoff and what they do with it.

Might just start grabbing endzone/multi cam feeds and using those. This is getting ridiculous.

rickithebear

When Atco built the 2 units at sheerness.
The screwed the process as bad as possible.
Pre 1 year lawsuit with major contractor.
6 lawsuits against major contractors on failed systems
With test reports indicated handed by lead Atco engineers.
Years later found by me miss filled and all failed tests not meeting requirements.
5 failed delivery by sub contractors approved subs.

From that Atco set up a standard based on worst run progect.

Must achieve a minimum of 40% analyzed gain from current 100% cost vs.ue.

Gross income
– capital conversion/ life of plant per year
– maintenance cost of new plant versus original maintenance cost.
– operational cost origional operator staff and fuel cost versus new ops staff fuel costs.

Expected(Pool) income (Corsi)
Less expected costs (HD affect)
Expected net income ( expected GA)
This has to show a 40% reduction in soft analysis.

Annual Pool income accrued (Corsix,y)
– minus annual capital cost (blocks)
– minus annual maintenance cost ( misses)
– minus annual fuel cost ( closed shots)
= Annual fixed income (open shot x,y) (Dpair established expected save%)
– annual operation cost ( goalies +/- save% performance)
Net income (true GA)
As an example
These were set up to have cost mechanism and potentials to match def measure mechanisms.

HD measure:
Corsix,y to expected GA (xGA) 85% accurate.
Is really a Def triangle analysis. (2D – 1G)
But can be separated by sides xGA and goalie general save % to each side.

Combined HD/0% Corsi measures.
Corsi to openshot x,y (Dpair established save % to each side) 95% accurate

Expected save%. – goalie save% performance ( close to 100% measure)
Goalie def measure.

Defensive triangle should be differentiated (broken down) by 3 potential structures.
(2D – 1G)
(1rover – 1D – 1G)
(1 fwd – 1D – 1G)
With dmen ending up with 3 potential positions.
The resulting expected save% and Real goalie save% performance.

The process:
1. Explain HD density shot theory. (Corsix,y – shotx,y)
The goal diff tree sub theories.
Resultant d and goalie

2. Explain Table hockey goalie/Open Corsi theories
open shot= corsi – (blocks+misses+closed shots)
The goal diff sub tree theories
Identifies the elite 0% corsi reduction and Elite Open Save % goalies.

3. Combine the 2 defensive affects
Open shotx,y = Corsix,y – (blocks+misses+closed shots)x,y
Creates a true open shot (greater than .1% chance) shot chart
identifies true Elite combined (HD/Opensh) Dmen (Larrson)
Identifies true Elite combined (HD/Opensh) goalies

4. Introduces 3 true HD def triangle structures.
(2D – 1G)
(1rover – 1D – 1G) Offensive Dmen are offensive
(#4fwd – 1D – 1G) Offensive Dmen are really Forwards. (New)
Depth of OZ penetration
And return time to 2D structure differentiates the 3.

Congratulations to those who graduated to step three in the learning process.

Step 4 takes us to position identification by % of structure occupied and introduces the final group of theories in defensive measure.

It will be interesting to See our pocession structure at point of turnover (Failure) what dmen are not truly dmen?

Annual pool income accrued
– Capital costs
does not tell us much.

Wilde

JimmyV1965: I love that Drai move where guys try to check him and he just bounces them to the ground. He’s going to be even stronger this year!! He shouldn’t have retaliated though.

Disagree, I’ve got all the time in the world for that crosscheck. Vatrano swung his stick at Drai’s face during the fall, too, not just the leg hold. If Leon doesn’t notice what he”s doing quick enough he could have easily injured himself.

JimmyV1965

Wilde:
I keep getting interrupting myself by getting piping mad at bad calls from literally months ago.

Example A:

https://streamable.com/83r9i

I love that Drai move where guys try to check him and he just bounces them to the ground. He’s going to be even stronger this year!! He shouldn’t have retaliated though.

dcsj

VOR: dcsj

Thanks very much for both links. I read a book years ago called Music, the Brain, and Ecstasy by Robert Jourdain. (I think that is the name.) It is out of print now, but what I understood of it was quite interesting.

Back to the topic at hand…

Melvis

Yeah, I know. Freudian slip. Ha ha.