Kicks

In the 1960’s, I was too young to know what was cool and what was uncool. It led to many decisions based on personal taste as opposed to peer pressure. For instance, I liked the Monkees far more than the Beatles (my brother sent thousands of fists my way over that one), the VW Beetle more than the sports cars of the day, and collecting baseball and hockey cards.

My lifetime of nerdiness established and known to all but me, I made choices that, upon reflection, look decidedly unimpressive. For example, I love, love, loved the song “Kicks” by a band called Paul Revere and the Raiders. I liked more of their songs, not just that one. Paul Revere and the Raiders would appear on television wearing the damndest things, and I liked them anyway. Wherever cool was, they lived in the next town over. Didn’t matter.

Sometimes in life, things are just good and you have to admit it no matter the consequences. Preferring the Monkees to the Beatles cost me some lumps, and singing “Kicks just keep getting harder to find” while walking around our house wasn’t a friend getter, but you are what you are. If you see or hear quality, acknowledge it and own it. Those things are what make you unique.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

TOP 20 PROSPECTS

I’ve been running a top 20 prospects list every summer for absolutely ages. The first time I published a list was summer 2003, via hfboards. It’s in the archives of this blog now, I want to repurpose it here in order to point out just how much we don’t know when ranking these young men.

  • Marc Pouliot, Colin McDonald, Jean-Francois Jacques, Mikhail Zhukov and Kalle Olsson had all been drafted in the days before publishing. The 2013 draft picks not listed here who made the NHL include Kyle Brodziak (847) and Zack Stortini (257).
  • I was a fan of Jani Rita and make no apologies. He scored a goal at the (I think) 1999 WJ’s that sealed the deal for me, but the Oilers didn’t love him like the fans. Rita had a long and successful career in Finland after heading back home.
  • Raffi Torres was held in high regard and delivered. He would have had a long career if not for Raffi Torres.
  • Matt Greene was ranked late in the top 10, I’d rank him there again. NHL teams can find shutdown defensemen easier than puck movers. That said, Greene could skate and well, might have been an idea to move him up a few spots.
  • Some free agents (MA Bergeron, Ty Conklin) would emerge as time went by. Sniff.
  • My final independent summer list, 2017, is here. Summer 2003 to summer 2017 is 15 years, that’s a long, long time. I enjoyed every minute of it.

THE ATHLETIC TOP 20

This blog started with a few ideas, chief among them to take bias out of the conversation (as much as possible) to allow for a neutral starting point for posters. I wanted you to arrive here, read the prose, be entertained and informed, and then we could begin a conversation about the subject at hand. It’s impossible to spend 15 summers ranking a top 20 list without letting bias get in the way and I was absolutely guilty time and again.

My move to The Athletic allows me all kinds of new experiences and the top prospects list was a major one for me. I’ve watched other sites reach consensus and for me that’s a great way to iron out the bias. I was also curious to know if my rankings would be out of time with others (and vice versa) when Jonathan Willis set about compiling four lists (his, mine, Scott Wheeler’s and Corey Pronman’s) into one ranking for the summer 2018 top 20.

Jon published the list of defencemen and goalies ranked outside the top 20 (here) and my list of forwards who didn’t make the cut were just published and are here.

I wondered how my rankings would differ from the group. I wondered specifically about Joe Gambardella, who in my opinion has enough going on that we might be dealing with a small “p” Pisani if things break right. I wondered if the three other gentlemen voting would give “Kicks” Gambardella a proper hearing, and also wondered if I let bias get in the way when the player’s numbers didn’t warrant a bold number (despite my belief in him as a prospect).

As it turned out, I ranked Gambardella one spot higher than consensus. I’m thrilled by that outcome, because a player that impressed me a lot but didn’t have the numbers got a fair shake in the overall rankings. I’m satisfied with the entire list, truth to tell.

You will see the results as the days roll by, but I’m happy to say differences in the group were minimal and exactly one player in my top 20 missed the cut (he is ranked No. 22 on the final list, I had him No. 18). It tells me two things: I may have improved since 2003, and when you rank prospects at a specific time it is exactly that process. What happens afterward, after the photo, cannot be predicted. I couldn’t know the Oilers head coach simply didn’t see Jani Rita as an NHL player and that Rita would never get 500 at-bats to show what he could do, but that’s not the purpose of the list.

If you haven’t yet subscribed, it’s less than $4 a month right now. I’m proud of The Athletic top 20 this summer, thrilled to work with Jon, Corey and Scott. Hope you enjoy reading today and in the days to come.

Yesterday, Darcy McLeod dropped by with Puck IQ wowy’s for Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson against elites. As if Nurse didn’t need more ammo for his contract negotiations, the numbers are impressive. This is versus elite, DFF percentage.

  • Darnell Nurse with Adam Larsson (48.1)
  • Darnell Nurse without Adam Larsson (50.2)
  • Adam Larsson without Darnell Nurse (49.8)
  • Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson both off (46.7)

We know the power of the McDavid zoom, but that’s some good defense right there for the young Nurse. Two years, $3.5 per? Does that bring out the Chiarelli searchlight police copter? I think the second pairing should be Nurse-Benning, the third pair Sekera-Russell and if Evan Bouchard makes the team Russell is the one to sit sans injury. Agree?

  • Klefbom-Larsson
  • Nurse-Benning
  • Sekera-Russell
  • ?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning,  TSN1260, we rock and roll with some cool older people. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. Tour de France, Oilers prospects, WHA memories.
  • Schuyler Dixon, AP Dallas/Ft. Worth. The Dallas Cowboys: Are they a playoff team?
  • Bob Nightengale, USA TODAY Sports Major League Baseball columnist, MLB Network Insider. Trade deadline madness.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide text. See you on the radio!

BONUS: MY FAVOURITE SUMMER TOP 20

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185 Responses to "Kicks"

  1. frjohnk says:

    I really like what Woodguy, G and crew have given us in regards to PuckIQ. More data for us to look at and confuse us just a bit more 🙂

    Their data gives us a bit different angle to look at from anything else out there

    Maybe not perfect, but I love the binning they use to group Q of C. Nobody else has anything like it.

    Not sure if it gets there, but if the data was up to date, it would be one of the best public data bases we can access.

  2. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – The Puck IQ is interesting, but like all these tools it has to have some context

    – We have more information as a result of PuckIQ than before which is awesome

    – Larsson is the best RHD on the team. That Nurse did better by some measure without Larsson does not mean that Nurse is better without Larsson in terms of effecting team results as a pair

    – Puck IQ gives some neat glimpses into things. But just like the NHLE, you can’t conflate a number with definitives about the effectiveness of pairings on team results

    – Also, the devlepment of the D in the last few years is how one draws it up: guys vets like Russel and Sek block guys like Nurse and Benning, untill they are better than the expensive Free Agents they had to acquire because our D sucked

    – There is a lot of grief on the terms or salaries of Sek and Russel, but that is the price you pay to get D to come play in a town where D comes to end their careers on bad teams

    – But now you have a pipeline of Nurse, Benning, Bouchard, Bear (in that order) that have paths to playing at levels they should be at. That’s how it’s done on a real organization folks

  3. Jaxon says:

    I think Nurse could get a bridge in the 4.0 to 4.167 range and deservedly so. It also would decrease the size of his next contract and show some goodwill. Bridges are just that. A lesser amount with the expectation that your GM will make up the difference in the next contract. I wish they had room to sign him for 8 years at 6 per. 48 over 8. If they pay him 3×2 years that means he could expect to get 42 over 6 years or 7 per. If they pay him 4×2 years, that means he could expect to get 40 over 6 years Or 6.67 per. But he’ll also be a better player by the time he signs the next one so you have to increase the contract for that, too. So I think they could be paying him over 7.5M on the next contract. I think Koskinen’s overpay (not to mention Lucic and Russell) has cost them a chance to lock Nurse in long term at a decent price.

  4. hodgkins says:

    Making me feel nostalgic LT. I started reading your posts on HFboards as a teenager and now I’m 35. A friend of mine asked me something one night over a few beers about who’s voice I trust in the media. I said, “well, there is this Oiler blogger named Lowetide”… not the response he was expecting!

    I find myself using folksy LT’isms like “pushing the river”, “get good people, keep good people”, and “the problem is, you develop a past” that are totally foreign to people here in the Detroit area.

    Thanks for all that you do!

    PS: What do you think you’re biggest “miss” was on the prospect lists? Rita? Trukhno? Just curious…

  5. Pescador says:

    frjohnk:
    I really like what Woodguy, G and crew have given us in regards to PuckIQ.More data for us to look at and confuse us just a bit more

    Their data gives us a bit different angle to look at from anything else out there

    Maybe not perfect, but I love the binning they use to group Q of C. Nobody else has anything like it.

    Not sure if it gets there, but if the data was up to date, it would be one of the best public data bases we can access.

    Ricki posted some very clear evidence in last nights thread (12:24) about how PuckIQ can only possibly achieve 47% accuracy. Bears re-posting:
    Ricki wrote:
    These numbers are guaranteed to identify the best d men 47% of the time.
    Reviewed it going back 6 years.

    Why do you keep using the least accurate measure.
    When you have 2 options that are 85% or better.

    You have a calculator.
    That presents 53% inaccuracy.

    The major flaw is partial inclusion of 0% corsi def affect.
    Data is about the wholes (100%) of def mechanism affect.

    Closed shot and miss portion of the data has 0% chance of going in.Which is a huge defensive factor.

    The 2 most accurate ( above 85% identifier)
    Corsi HD (CAx,y)
    full exclusion of 0% corsi defensive affect.
    Or
    Open shot HD
    Full inclusion of 0% corsi (blocks + misses + closed shots) defensive affect.

    It is the only 2 density based Shot charts with high accurate identifying value.
    Which of coarse can be the only 2.
    They provide 100% wholes of the 2 critical high ratio defensive identifiers in the game.

    Anything else is misleading partials.

    Hey it is different than mine.

    You had 6 partials choices other than the wholes Corsi or Open shot.
    Corsi – blocks
    Corsi – misses
    Corsi – (blocks + misses)
    Corsi – Closed shots
    Corsi – (blocks + closed shots)
    Corsi – (misses + closed shots)

    You picked the only accuracy below 50%
    Fenwick by itself.

    My perspective when I look at your data.

    Worst data available (47%/85%) or (47%/(93-95%))
    And
    Built by individuals with zero understanding of the importance of the 2 defensive identifiers as wholes.
    CAx,y
    CAx,y – (0% CA)

    This is as clear minded an explanation
    (No work influence – No family distraction – No pain)
    I have been able to provide.

    Wholes versus partials.
    Wholes seem to be the bast choice every time.

  6. J-Bo says:

    Agree on the defense pairs depending on how everyone is going. I think there is room for the pairs to move up and down depending on who is going best. Also, just imagine if this was our D when they signed Justin Schultz. It helps put into perspective how far we have come and that while Russell and Sekera are overpays right now, they are extremely important to our team considering Bear, Bouchard, and other prospects.

  7. Lowetide says:

    hodgkins:
    Making me feel nostalgic LT.I started reading your posts on HFboards as a teenager and now I’m 35.A friend of mine asked me something one night over a few beers about who’s voice I trust in the media.I said, “well, there is this Oiler blogger named Lowetide”…not the response he was expecting!

    I find myself using folksy LT’isms like “pushing the river”, “get good people, keep good people”, and “the problem is, you develop a past” that are totally foreign to people here in the Detroit area.

    Thanks for all that you do!

    PS: What do you think you’re biggest “miss” was on the prospect lists?Rita?Trukhno?Just curious…

    Probably Trukhno. I saw him in training camp one year and he impressed the hell out of me, but really had speed issues. Thanks for the kind words. 🙂

  8. stephen sheps says:

    Melvis: As there are many music lovers here. some might find this interesting.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/lifestyle/average-person-stops-seeking-out-new-music-by-age-28-survey-1.4025955

    This is from the tail end of the last thread, but given our host’s discussion about music and bands we love even if we probably shouldn’t, it seemed worth carrying over to today’s conversation.

    It’s interesting what this study suggests, but I’d counter that the results of this survey will change dramatically in the next 10-15 years as music streaming services become the new normal. Curated playlists with new music suggestions are pretty standard across apple and spotify’s platforms, which will lead to more discovery by default, and while conventional music magazines like the once mighty Rolling Stone and it’s alternative era cousin Spin aren’t what they used to be, music blogs and websites like Pitchfork, Brooklyn Vegan, Consequence of Sound and Stereogum are widely read and aren’t limited to a single genre. Kids that grow up with these platforms will see discovery as the normal rather than the exception as they age.

    The fact that we can have as many conversations about music here on what is ostensibly a whisky and BBQ blog that sometimes veers into hockey talk all but proves that this survey data might not be accurate soon enough. Even a couple weeks back, a poster (Bendelson I think) asked the community for new music. Some of the lists were outstanding. I pride myself on being pretty plugged in despite quickly approaching the dreaded ‘middle age’, but there were a few things I hadn’t heard of that based on other posters’ suggestions I really enjoyed. As Lowetide, said above: “If you see or hear quality, acknowledge it and own it. Those things are what make you unique.” Truer words…

    Maybe people aren’t going out of their way to look for new sounds past 28, but new sounds will find the people.

  9. Bag of Pucks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    While I largely agree with what you’re saying, I don’t think Kris Russell was in a position to be choosy about which team he was going to sign with. It is important to remember that he was one year removed from signing a tryout contract with the Oil. Given that Chiarelli picked him up when his career was on life support, I would think the player would have some loyalty to the organization.

    I agree that many posters underrate the approach that Pete took (i.e. signing vets with actual experience to enable the prospects shelter), but in the same breath, Chiarelli has a worrying tendency to overpay on a number of his contracts.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Mountour is a decent, although imperfect, comparable for Nurse.

    Montour has produced more offensively and has a higher offensive ceiling whereas Nurse is the better defender and has played tougher minutes.

    On the other hand, Montour is a right shot and had arbitration rights.

    Given the foregoing, I would think Nurse should come in slightly under Montour but, alas, I believe he will come in slightly higher than Montour because, well, because that is how we do….

  11. dustrock says:

    My brother asked me which OIlers journalists and bloggers I like.

    Lowetide was #1. Young Willis was #2.

    LT, I absolutely love your lead for this blog, as a life-long nerd it sparked a few memories:

    (1) I loved Transformers. I don’t think my parents got it, because it seemed like the storyline was just created to help sell some toys. It obviously was, but it really struck a chord with me. Optimus Prime was the leader I always aspired to be. You can imagine how traumatized I was when watching TF: The Movie for the first time. “Begging for mercy? I thought you were made of sterner stuff, Megatron”. Actually got an Autobot symbol tattoo years before the horrific Michael Bay films came out and ruined all that is good about the Transformers.

    (2) Speaking of the Monkees, being a Depeche Mode fan in the 80s and early 90s led to some unpleasant interactions in the greater Edmonton area.

    (3) Ditto in my college years when I listened to ABBA. At first I felt I had to pass it off as “I am ironically playing ABBA at this house party” and then it was “no, these are some of the greatest pop songs of all time, I apologize for nothing!”

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning
    Sekera-Russell
    ?

    Yup, that’s the way it should be, in my opinion.

    The issue is the head coach’s value in Kris Russell – there is a big trust factor there that could prob him back to 2RD.

    With that said, there were times last year where Russell’s minutes were cut down to 3rd pairing at evens and his PK time decreased. McLellan (and/or his previous staff) showed sighs of acknowledging to deficiencies in Russell’s game.

    A key to the season for me is Matt Benning and his ability to take that 2RD spot and run with it – if he can do that and Russell can truly play 3rd pairing at evens, I like the overall look of the defence.

    I see Gravel and Bouchard as the 7th/8th D and, if Bouchard breaks camp with the team, I foresee 8D on the roster (Yamamoto making the team could factor in though).

  13. dustrock says:

    stephen sheps: This is from the tail end of the last thread, but given our host’s discussion about music and bands we love even if we probably shouldn’t, it seemed worth carrying over to today’s conversation.

    It’s interesting what this study suggests, but I’d counter that the results of this survey will change dramatically in the next 10-15 years as music streaming services become the new normal. Curated playlists with new music suggestions are pretty standard across apple and spotify’s platforms, which will lead to more discovery by default, and while conventional music magazines like the once mighty Rolling Stone and it’s alternative era cousin Spin aren’t what they used to be, music blogs and websites like Pitchfork, Brooklyn Vegan, Consequence of Sound and Stereogum are widely read and aren’t limited to a single genre. Kids that grow up with these platforms will see discovery as the normal rather than the exception as they age.

    The fact that we can have as many conversations about music here on what is ostensibly a whisky and BBQ blog that sometimes veers into hockey talk all but proves that this survey data might not be accurate soon enough. Even a couple weeks back, a poster (Bendelson I think) asked the community for new music. Some of the lists were outstanding. I pride myself on being pretty plugged in despite quickly approaching the dreaded ‘middle age’, but there were a few things I hadn’t heard of that based on other posters’ suggestions I really enjoyed. As Lowetide, said above: “If you see or hear quality, acknowledge it and own it. Those things are what make you unique.” Truer words…

    Maybe people aren’t going out of their way to look for new sounds past 28, but new sounds will find the people.

    Thanks for this. Absolutely check Stereogum and Consequence of Sound every day. I do find I have reached the point where I can’t get excited about most of pop music these days, but I’m always exploring new things.

    What I love about Spotify is that I can decide one night to go back and listen to Elton John’s entire discography because maybe there’s some hidden gems I haven’t heard and that will occupy me for the next couple of weeks.

    Only 2 complaints about Spotify:

    (1) Why only 10,000 songs in your personal collection? Madness.

    (2) Why is Let Your Backbone Slide not available?

  14. flea says:

    stephen sheps,

    I read somewhere that the decrease in listening to new music has a lot to do with changing brain chemistry. when you’re young ,your brain releases more dopamine when you hear new music you like. So it actually sounds better. As you age, the dopamine release is reduced, so it’s not the same as when you listened to your favorite band when you were a teenager. You tend to go back to those original bands to get that rush.

    I play music (mostly bass) as a hobby and often have to listen to swathes of new music to prep for shows/jams/etc. So I force myself to listen to new music and eventually I can appreciate it like I appreciate my original interests. But it takes longer than in did when I was a teenager.

    I fully agree with you that streaming services are changing the way people listen to music. My wife and I use Spotify and it is so, so great, I don’t think I can ever go without again. Worth every penny.

  15. Bag of Pucks says:

    stephen sheps,

    My sense is that the Internet has lead us towards true fragmentation of the music industry and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

    Outside a notable few mega successful moguls, most new artists have small but loyal niche audiences that afford them the opportunity to stay true to their own aesthetic without the need to cater to the demands of the traditional record company model that sought huge profits. This is a double edged sword for me because whilst artist freedom is undoubtedly a good thing, I think there’s also something to be said for musicians honing their sound through live performance to resonate with the largest audience possible. There’s a fine line between catering to an audience or just being popular because you’re good, but if an artist is able to walk that line, you have the potential for that transcendent music that can resonate with millions. I’m thinking ‘Pink Floyd’ here if that helps to visualize?

    So, while artists are undoubtedly more independent now and freer to follow their own muse, I do miss some elements of what a lucrative record business had provided in the past (analog studio sheen, tours with huge production values, hell even big budget music videos were fun).

    If I was a working musician these days, I would also be more than a little miffed that the intellectual property I create commands fractional amounts per play via streaming services, Ironic, in the old days, musicians complained about getting pennies on the dollar for the music they produced. Now they can’t even get a penny.

  16. who says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning
    Sekera-Russell
    ?

    Yup, that’s the way it should be, in my opinion.

    The issue is the head coach’s value in Kris Russell – there is a big trust factor there that could prob him back to 2RD.

    With that said, there were times last year where Russell’s minutes were cut down to 3rd pairing at evens and his PK time decreased. McLellan (and/or his previous staff) showed sighs of acknowledging to deficiencies in Russell’s game.

    A key to the season for me is Matt Benning and his ability to take that 2RD spot and run with it – if he can do that and Russell can truly play 3rd pairing at evens, I like the overall look of the defence.

    I see Gravel and Bouchard as the 7th/8th D and, if Bouchard breaks camp with the team, I foresee 8D on the roster (Yamamoto making the team could factor in though).

    Those pairings only work if Benning can handle 2RD.
    If he struggles, like he did at the start of last year, you are going to see Russell there again.
    No matter how much you hate it.

  17. stephen sheps says:

    flea: I read somewhere that the decrease in listening to new music has a lot to do with changing brain chemistry. when you’re young ,your brain releases more dopamine when you hear new music you like. So it actually sounds better. As you age, the dopamine release is reduced, so it’s not the same as when you listened to your favorite band when you were a teenager. You tend to go back to those original bands to get that rush.

    Science is fun!

    Dopamine release/response is such an interesting concept, particularly as it relates to technology. In one of my courses (the sociology of everyday – it’s a first year course on ‘microsociology’) one of the themes we usually keep coming back to is the way that we frame our sense of self through technology, something that may have always been true, but with social media has become exponentially more of a thing. One of the exercises I have my students do is a monthly ‘social media diary’, where they take stock of their online patterns and connect it to a course concept from that monthly period. We have spent some time looking into the relationship between social media ‘likes’ and receiving text messages with dopamine responses in in-class discussions. There’s a lot of new information that suggests the reasons why we have a harder time disconnecting from our devices has to do with the steady stream of small dopamine bursts we get through the day and wanting to maintain those mini-spikes. I ‘m sure (and this is just theorizing about something that isn’t hockey stats for a minute, which is a lovely break) we can look into the relationship between dopamine responses and music discovery in the streaming age and find similar results as with texting and social media likes.

    dustrock: Thanks for this. Absolutely check Stereogum and Consequence of Sound every day. I do find I have reached the point where I can’t get excited about most of pop music these days, but I’m always exploring new things.

    I’m hardly a poptimist myself, but I also read Stereogum daily. Interesting comment threads over there. I’ve discovered many a great new band because of that site (and Pitchfork, too, believe it or not). I also just love their ‘the anniversary’ series where they look at big records from either 10 or 20 years ago. Long form music journalism at its finest (which probably just reinforces flea,’s point, but that’s ok, too).

  18. theWaxCollector says:

    dustrock,

    Neighbour (Calgary/Vancouver based DJ and producer) but more specifically the collab Neighbourhood Romeo produced a track for the label Punchout Canada that heavily samples Let Your Backbone Slide called West Side Slide. Maybe it’s on Spotify? I don’t use those services so I can’t check for you

  19. Bag of Pucks says:

    flea:
    stephen sheps,

    I read somewhere that the decrease in listening to new music has a lot to do with changing brain chemistry. when you’re young ,your brain releases more dopamine when you hear new music you like. So it actually sounds better. As you age, the dopamine release is reduced, so it’s not the same as when you listened to your favorite band when you were a teenager. You tend to go back to those original bands to get that rush.

    I play music (mostly bass) as a hobby and often have to listen to swathes of new music to prep for shows/jams/etc. So I force myself to listen to new music and eventually I can appreciate it like I appreciate my original interests. But it takes longer than in did when I was a teenager.

    I fully agree with you that streaming services are changing the way people listen to music. My wife and I use Spotify and it is so, so great, I don’t think I can ever go without again. Worth every penny.

    I also think it’s tougher for older people to get excited about new music, because much of it is simply a different spin on what’s come before. There is only 12 notes after all. : )

    For example, check out the main riff in the Black Keys, Little Submarines, then check out Dani California by the Chilis, and finally Mary Jane’s Last Dance by Tom Petty. You can see why it’s tougher for us old boys to get inspired by ‘new’ music when the same riffs are being regurgitated time and time again.

    Our family is very musical. We all play instruments. My sons are in a band. I also jam with them, My wife and I duet on stuff, etc. And spotify is huge in our house. We’re continually sharing and adding to each other’s playlists.

    And my sons, bless their hearts, are constantly introducing me to the new artists that inspire them. Inevitably however, I’ll listen and say things like, ‘oh, that sounds a little like the Allman Bros. mixed with KC and the Sunshine Band,’ etc. They’ll then name check the artist’s influences or Spotify recommendations based on their style and grouse, ‘Dad nailed it again.’

    The one thing we can all agree on is that absolutely nobody sounds like Frank Zappa. Now that man was a true original.

  20. flea says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    The biggest change in the music industry is that recording equipment and distribution networks is affordable and accessible now. Musicians can record their song, get high quality video of the performance with something as simple as a smartphone, and distribute it on Youtube/spotify/Apple Music/Etc, sometimes all on the same day.

    There is no doubt, it’s a hard way to make a living, but I think we will see a larger number of individuals making a living at music, rather than a select few making millions. I think that is a good thing for a lot of the reasons you mentioned. More selection, more niche focus,

    Playing live is still the tried and true way to make money in the music industry. I did play original music back in the early/mid 2000s but now with a young family and responsibilities, I’m ending up more in cover bands. A good cover band can make a surprising amount of money. Maybe not enough to make a living, but what hobby lets you drink for free all night and walk out the door with an extra $150-$200 in your pocket.

  21. jm363561 says:

    “Also, just imagine if this was our D when they signed Justin Schultz. It helps put into perspective how far we have come and that while Russell and Sekera are overpays right now, they are extremely important to our team considering Bear, Bouchard, and other prospects.”
    =====

    Really really good point. We convince Shultz to come to Edmonton, and promptly catapult him into a top D position, which almost guaranteed failure. In hindsight it was laughable. Year 1 of TMac and a young Darnell Nurse is playing top pair minutes. Today there is no excuse for Evan Bouchard (or Ethan Bear) to be treated the same way. He can develop at his own pace, whatever that might be. Lots of things still to complain about, but not the RHD pipeline.

  22. Bag of Pucks says:

    flea:
    Bag of Pucks,

    The biggest change in the music industry is that recording equipment and distribution networks is affordable and accessible now. Musicians can record their song, get high quality video of the performance with something as simple as a smartphone, and distribute it on Youtube/spotify/Apple Music/Etc, sometimes all on the same day.

    There is no doubt, it’s a hard way to make a living, but I think we will see a larger number of individuals making a living at music, rather than a select few making millions. I think that is a good thing for a lot of the reasons you mentioned. More selection, more niche focus,

    Playing live is still the tried and true way to make money in the music industry. I did play original music back in the early/mid 2000s but now with a young family and responsibilities, I’m ending up more in cover bands. A good cover band can make a surprising amount of money. Maybe not enough to make a living, but what hobby lets you drink for free all night and walk out the door with an extra $150-$200 in your pocket.

    Agree on all fronts.

    All that said, I would love to see another mainstream rock artist emerge that could give the classic legacy acts a run for their money. Foo Fighters had been carrying that torch for a bit but their most recent releases have been weak imo.

  23. dcsj says:

    Very interesting music discussion. I think I am probably the nerdiest nerd of all time, since my kind of music is all classical all the time. Barely ever liked pop music, even as a teen. Anyway, the discussion of dopamine and music leads me to ask if any of you who know about this could share a link or two to articles that a layman could understand, I’d appreciate it.

    And back to the topic at hand, I love reading LT. He gets me so interested on the prospects that I wish they all could make it and have 500+ game careers

  24. Side says:

    flea:
    Bag of Pucks,

    The biggest change in the music industry is that recording equipment and distribution networks is affordable and accessible now. Musicians can record their song, get high quality video of the performance with something as simple as a smartphone, and distribute it on Youtube/spotify/Apple Music/Etc, sometimes all on the same day.

    There is no doubt, it’s a hard way to make a living, but I think we will see a larger number of individuals making a living at music, rather than a select few making millions. I think that is a good thing for a lot of the reasons you mentioned. More selection, more niche focus,

    Playing live is still the tried and true way to make money in the music industry. I did play original music back in the early/mid 2000s but now with a young family and responsibilities, I’m ending up more in cover bands. A good cover band can make a surprising amount of money. Maybe not enough to make a living, but what hobby lets you drink for free all night and walk out the door with an extra $150-$200 in your pocket.

    You mean like how the Gorillaz made their album, The Fall, almost entirely on his iPad while on tour for a month across the US?

    I find my music tastes have shifted to the ‘weird’ and electronic. Would listen to Aphex Twin, Boards of Canada or New Retro Wave all day, every day.

  25. flea says:

    Side,

    Yeah, there are countless examples now of recording on the go. Electronic music is even easier because you don’t need to capture a true acoustic sound, or if you are you are modifying it digitally. Not trying to knock electronic music, it’s impressive what these guys do. It is a product of the smaller, accessible recording equipment and of course, computers.

    I love the hybrid of electronic and regular music. Artists like Whitehorse and Caribou do very interesting live shows where they are looping, triggering samples and playing instruments simultaneously. Really cool stuff to watch.

  26. Georgexs says:

    If I click post comment and my comment isn’t posted, does that mean I’m banned from commenting?

  27. dustrock says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    stephen sheps,

    My sense is that the Internet has lead us towards true fragmentation of the music industry and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

    Outside a notable few mega successful moguls, most new artists have small but loyal niche audiences that afford them the opportunity to stay true to their own aesthetic without the need to cater to the demands of the traditional record company model that sought huge profits. This is a double edged sword for me because whilst artist freedom is undoubtedly a good thing, I think there’s also something to be said for musicians honing their sound through live performance to resonate with the largest audience possible. There’s a fine line between catering to an audience or just being popular because you’re good, but if an artist is able to walk that line, you have the potential for that transcendent music that can resonate with millions. I’m thinking ‘Pink Floyd’ here if that helps to visualize?

    So, while artists are undoubtedly more independent now and freer to follow their own muse, I do miss some elements of what a lucrative record business had provided in the past (analog studio sheen, tours with huge production values, hell even big budget music videos were fun).

    If I was a working musician these days, I would also be more than a little miffed that the intellectual property I create commands fractional amounts per play via streaming services, Ironic, in the old days, musicians complained about getting pennies on the dollar for the music they produced. Now they can’t even get a penny.

    It’s pretty hard to parse and probably depends on the artist.. A band like say Beach House was never going to sell millions of records but I think they got exposure from music blogs, I assume people mostly streamed their music, and they do quite well on tour and the festival scene.

    Does talent still rise to the top? I’m not completely sure.

    It sounds weird to be pro-record company, and I know Tom Petty mocked the idea on Great Wide Open with the line “the A&R man said I don’t hear a single”, but I think sometimes artists were pushed by A&R to come up with better or catchier songs, particularly if the record company had given an advance on the album.

    Off the top of my head, EMI asked Damon Albarn to come up with a couple of singles after they recorded Modern Life is Rubbish and he pounded out For Tomorrow and Chemical World in one day.

    Tori Amos did something similar for Little Earthquakes. I’m sure there’s other examples.

    To me you want artists to be free to explore and expand their respective sounds, but there’s also something to be said for quality control as well, and I think that’s where the music industry is at these days.

    There’s a ton of interesting music out there, but man is some of it sloppy and amateurish.

  28. leadfarmer says:

    Pescador,

    Yes but the dog ate all that data so we have to deal with what’s available

  29. Side says:

    flea:
    Side,

    Yeah, there are countless examples now of recording on the go. Electronic music is even easier because you don’t need to capture a true acoustic sound, or if you are you are modifying it digitally. Not trying to knock electronic music, it’s impressive what these guys do. It is a product of the smaller, accessible recording equipment and of course, computers.

    I love the hybrid of electronic and regular music. Artists like Whitehorse and Caribou do very interesting live shows where they are looping, triggering samples and playing instruments simultaneously. Really cool stuff to watch.

    It’s definitely ‘easier’ to produce music electronically, no doubt. But I find a lot of these artists are trying to find their own unique sound by manipulating, distorting, or creating their own genre of electronic sounds which can be exhausting or difficult, I imagine.

    Boards of Canada, for example, makes music by taking samples of old broadcasting videos to create some ‘haunting’ or ‘relaxing’ music (depending on who you are), by distorting and manipulating these sounds and even invoking a different sense of nostalgia.

    Hybrid stuff is definitely enjoyable as well. I’ll admit though, concerts don’t really do much for me.

  30. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk:
    I really like what Woodguy, G and crew have given us in regards to PuckIQ.More data for us to look at and confuse us just a bit more

    Their data gives us a bit different angle to look at from anything else out there

    Maybe not perfect, but I love the binning they use to group Q of C. Nobody else has anything like it.

    Not sure if it gets there, but if the data was up to date, it would be one of the best public data bases we can access.

    Zsolt is finally getting close to having an API that will work.

    Once it’s up I’ll check the data against other sites.

    If it’s all good then G will update the databases and we’ll have a new site.

    I’m hoping by the end of August.

    Note: we were at the same spot in December when everything went sideways so I’m not promising anything

  31. Professor Q says:

    Georgexs:
    If I click post comment and my comment isn’t posted, does that mean I’m banned from commenting?

    I’d like to comment on this mystery, as it seems as if it could add to the commentary here today.

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador,

    Ricki posted some very clear evidence

    Your mileage may vary

  33. Bag of Pucks says:

    dustrock

    There’s a ton of interesting music out there, but man is some of it sloppy and amateurish.

    I think that can 100% be attributed to A) karaoke & B) youtube. Both contributed to a culture that suddenly made it ok to offer up dreck for mass consumption AND find an audience doing so. There is a popular recent video on youtube featuring a guy playing Eruption without actually taking the time to learn the song. It’s at nearly 1 million views.

    I’m still holding out hope that a true generational artist is going to arrive that will reinvent the industry with their sheer musicality and inspire people to play AND practice again.

    Along those lines, I thought Amy Winehouse was a BIG BIG loss. A lady with immense talent and we were just seeing the tip of the iceberg when she passed. Her reinvention of the torch singer genre was very inspiring while it lasted.

  34. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Pescador,

    Ricki posted some very clear evidence

    Your mileage may vary

    Well, all this time I’ve been measuring in kilometreage, anyway.

  35. hunter1909 says:

    I don’t follow music much.

    I’d like to, though.

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs:
    If I click post comment and my comment isn’t posted, does that mean I’m banned from commenting?

    That’s exactly why I’m Woodguy v2.0.

    My original account can log in, can post, but the posts never show up

  37. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s exactly why I’m Woodguy v2.0.

    And here I thought it was just your unwavering commitment to personal development ; )

  38. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    While I largely agree with what you’re saying, I don’t think Kris Russell was in a position to be choosy about which team he was going to sign with. It is important to remember that he was one year removed from signing a tryout contract with the Oil. Given that Chiarelli picked him up when his career was on life support, I would think the player would have some loyalty to the organization.

    I agree that many posters underrate the approach that Pete took (i.e. signing vets with actual experience to enable the prospects shelter), but in the same breath, Chiarelli has a worrying tendency to overpay on a number of his contracts.

    – Russel signed a 1 year deal at 3.1MM: by all accounts he out-played that account, and did well in playoffs which increased his value. That 1 year deal was a deal, and quick moving by Chia once he realized Griff was not going to cut it.

    – Sure 4×4 is probably 1 year too long, but lets see what happens after this year. The deal was structured so that he is imminently tradeable

    – Lots of teams would have signed him after that year. What if his agent said: “we like you guys, but he’s got 4×3 in Cali. Give him an 4rth year and he’s yours

    – I bet that happens a lot more than most realize: its the premium required to bring in Free Agents to a place where most Free Agents last 10 years come to play their last games in the NHL

    – Chia overpays some players, thats’ for sure: I don’t think it is because he is a bad GM, or just doesn’t understand the implications, or he’s a poor negociator nearly as much as it’s a reflection of the reality and choices made. Plus his cap guy suck: get rid of that Scott guy, and bring in a wonk

  39. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georgexs:
    If I click post comment and my comment isn’t posted, does that mean I’m banned from commenting?

    – hence Kinger_Oil.redux – you must have posted so much with Georges, you had to create a new nic: at least that’s how I took: LT might be mad at me, but he didn’t ban me…

  40. deardylan says:

    Love this quote LT,

    “…but you are what you are. If you see or hear quality, acknowledge it and own it. Those things are what make you unique.”

    Comes in handy during my roller coasting job search in TO. Almost 3 months in, 100+ applications, 4 interviews and 0 job offers.

    NEXT!!

    #winorlearn #thereimmigrationgame

  41. digger50 says:

    Georgexs:
    If I click post comment and my comment isn’t posted, does that mean I’m banned from commenting?

    McLellan must have taken over

  42. Jethro Tull says:

    deardylan:
    Love this quote LT,

    “…but you are what you are. If you see or hear quality, acknowledge it and own it. Those things are what make you unique.”

    Comes in handy during my roller coasting job search in TO.Almost 3 months in, 100+ applications and 4 interviews and 0 job offers.

    #winorlearn #thereimmigrationgame

    Where are you emigrating from?

    Good luck with the job search.

    I was lucky. Landed on a Monday, interview on the Tuesday, working on the Wednesday.

  43. deardylan says:

    Bag of Pucks: Woodguy 2.0 … And here I thought it was just your unwavering commitment to personal development ; )

    LOL :)) +1

    BagofLaughs are you sure you are not a full time standup comedian on Netflix in real life?

  44. bendelson says:

    Many excellent music related posts in the thread – thanks to Sheps for carrying yesterday’s Melvis post
    forward. I’ll just say that Spotify combined with Sonos in our home, has changed the way my wife and I listen to music… very much for the better.

    When it comes to new music (yes, Sheps, I asked for summertime listening suggestions and wow did the gang deliver!), I really enjoy discovering bands with what I consider to be shared influences of mine.

    Example: Parquet Courts and influences such as Pavement, the Talking Heads and of course, VU (your mileage may vary, but listen to the last half of ‘One Man No City’ and tell me you don’t hear it).

    Also, Spotify has allowed us to take deep dives into areas such as the early American punk scene, to which my wife was largely unaware… the Stooges and Husker Du now make regular appearances in her playlists and she can recognize a Replacements tune from miles away. Music!

  45. Professor Q says:

    Jethro Tull: Where are you emigrating from?

    Good luck with the job search.

    I was lucky.Landed on a Monday, interview on the Tuesday, working on the Wednesday.

    Damn, that’s good. I wish we were as lucky.

    Still looking, and I’m a year and a month + post-grad. Don’t want the knowledge to waste away…

    It’s tough out there, so good luck, everyone!

  46. Professor Q says:

    bendelson,

    Not music related, but I’ve never zoomed in before on your avatar.

    I always thought it was a comical Thomas the Train Engine face, which added to the numerous quips.

  47. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    deardylan,

    – You are looking for a job in T.O.? My “hobby” is connecting people:

    – One of my first jobs I got after meeting someone who knew of an opportunity, and he called that guy I got an interview, and then the job. When I asked him how I could thank him he just said: “promise to help anyone who needs a job to meet with them and listen” I’ve been doing it ever since, and its a reward in life.

    – I would love to meet up if you are so inclined.

  48. deardylan says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Hi Jethro,

    Thanks for checking in!

    Haha I used to have your type of job luck…although apparently not this time around.

    Even writing a resume and cover letter is a skill that needs lots of refining cause I haven’t needed one in decades.

    My mom just had hip surgery and my dad mid 70s so time to move back and spend as much precious time with them.

    I am an entrepreneur (leadership, management and sales training) in Asia although in Canada I’m looking for a more stable job with regular monthly income so I can sponsor my wife to get permanent residence here.

    I was living abroad for 18 years in Europe and Asia. Grew up mostly in Edmonton so don’t really have many connections in TO although feel great about living here with all the parks, cycling and entertainment around here.

    In the meantime will keep connecting with friends of friends and those I meet along the journey. Hope I will meet some LT supporters in Toronto in the near future to watch a Oilers game together!

  49. bendelson says:

    Professor Q:
    bendelson,

    Not music related, but I’ve never zoomed in before on your avatar.

    I always thought it was a comical Thomas the Train Engine face, which added to the numerous quips.

    Interesting. It’s also been mistaken (somehow) for Michael Jackson…
    For the record, it’s titled ‘self portrait #1’.

  50. Jethro Tull says:

    Professor Q: Damn, that’s good. I wish we were as lucky.

    Still looking, and I’m a year and a month + post-grad. Don’t want the knowledge to waste away…

    It’s tough out there, so good luck, everyone!

    I have been on numerous hiring committees. One thing that always stands out is if someone has stayed stagnant – ie: Waiting for the perfect job.

    There’s three possibilities:

    1) Right job at the right time
    2) Wrong job at the right time
    3) Right job at the wrong time

    #1 is what you’re aiming for, but if you’re sat across from us and (I’ve heard this more than once) say “I haven’t been working because there’s nothing out there”, then I have to say that’s a big turn off for many recruiters. We realize that you want a job doing what you worked so hard for. But that doesn’t mean you should have done nothing up until then.

    If you’re having trouble finding employment in your field of expertise, we’d rather hear “I took a job at Wal-Mart to keep the bills paid, but I’m also gaining different perspectives in team-work, time managment, etc.” Something positive that shows that you don’t let the grass grow under your feet, and it’s all about the spin on what can carry over and be a benefit to your prospective employer.

    Unlike one of my distant relatives who was laid off for two years and “could only go back to a management position.” He was 35yo. and a welder by trade. His partner had the patience of a saint, especially when his EI ran out and she was struggling to support the family on her wage alone. He was offered jobs back on the tools.

    Get yourself out there, stay positive, and who knows, maybe you find you enjoy doing something you may not have contemplated before!

  51. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Here’s some interesting info from the Nurse-Larsson WoodWOWY

    We see Larson’s overall DFF% not move too much with and without Nurse, especially vs Elites.

    However, when you dig into DFFor/60 and DFAgainst/60 it shows that there is significant movement, it just doesn’t change the over ratio (DFF%) that much.

    Dangerous Fenwick For/60 (vs Elites)

    Players DFF/60
    Darnell Nurse with Adam Larsson 37.27
    Darnell Nurse without Adam Larsson 42.25
    Adam Larsson without Darnell Nurse 45.08
    Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson both off 43.41

    So together the get the least amount of “for” and Larsson goes up more without than Nurse.

    This makes sense when you figure Larsson played with Klefbom mostly and Nurse played with Russell mostly when they weren’t with each other.

    Then we look at the defensive side of things:

    Dangerous Fenwick For/60 (vs Elites)

    Players DFA/60
    Darnell Nurse with Adam Larsson 40.22
    Darnell Nurse without Adam Larsson 41.91
    Adam Larsson without Darnell Nurse 45.42
    Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson both off 49.58

    Nurse is low (which is good) both with and without Larsson and Larsson’s number jumps away from Nurse.

    This is probably due to Klefbom being less adept at the defensive side as Nurse (but more adept at helping create shots).

    I found it really interesting that while the overall ratios didn’t move much (DFF%) the components which create the ratios did, they just moved almost equally to each side of the ledger.

    This also kicks a bit of a hole in the “Nurse rushing the puck leads to offence” theory.

    Gregor said on his show yesterday that Nurse is specifically working on making better decisions with the puck in the ozone on the rush with Adam Oates this summer.

    If he can add some shots to the team while not losing any of his defensive ability he might become a lot more, which is exciting.

  52. VOR says:

    dcsj:
    Very interesting music discussion. I think I am probably the nerdiest nerd of all time, since my kind of music is all classical all the time. Barely ever liked pop music, even as a teen. Anyway, the discussion of dopamine and music leads me to ask if any of you who know about this could share a link or two to articles that a layman could understand, I’d appreciate it.

    And back to the topic at hand, I love reading LT. He gets me so interested on the prospects that I wish they all could make it and have 500+ game careers

    Despite being in the MSM this article was written by scientists who work in the field. It is really accessible.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/09/opinion/sunday/why-music-makes-our-brain-sing.html

  53. Pescador says:

    Professor Q: Well, all this time I’ve been measuring in kilometreage, anyway.

    What is the closed hole variance for HD kilometerage anyhow?
    I’m only halfway through my PH.D. In Astrophysics,
    NHL shot data is so complicated

  54. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Oates is the horse whisperer

  55. Pescador says:

    bendelson: Interesting.It’s also been mistaken (somehow) for Michael Jackson…
    For the record, it’s titled ‘self portrait #1’.

    Looks like a knife wielding ventriloquist doll to me

  56. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This also kicks a bit of a hole in the “Nurse rushing the puck leads to offence” theory.

    Not exactly sure which Nurse we’re talking about, but Darnell Nurse last season struck me as occasionally taking the puck from end to end, but by the time he crossed the blue line he seemed clueless.

    I am a huge fan of his style of play, and the player is very cool, but honestly I’m not seeing a lot of offense in him, in fact he’s regressing to my beady eye.

    Paul Coffey, my all time fave Oiler will of course sort everything out for Nurse by the 1st game of the regular season and bunnies and rainbows will appear over Ayers Rock.

  57. Professor Q says:

    Pescador: Looks like a knife wielding ventriloquist doll to me

    I loved Puppets Who Kill!

    People don’t kill people. Puppets kill people.

  58. bendelson says:

    Pescador: Looks like a knife wielding ventriloquist doll to me

    Well… thanks for not saying ‘dummy’?

  59. ArmchairGM says:

    From yesterday’s thread:

    OriginalPouzar: I wasn’t counting Nuge as it was assumed he will be at 1LW and we were talking about 2LW.

    Sure, Khaira is trending better than Lucic right now but Lucic did have better metrics than Khaira, possession metrics, goal share, etc. and their P/60 were almost the same (and Khaira had a unsustainably high shooting percentage and Lucic unusustainably low).

    Its far from lock that Khaira would have a more productive season at 2LW.

    Lucic had better metrics than Khaira at 2LW? Not a chance. He may have had better metrics overall because he spent a lot of time with McDavid while Khaira spent a lot of time with Letestu… hardly a fair comparison. Lets look at them as 2LW, basically “with Draisaitl”.

    Khaira in 168:34 5v5
    55.44 CF%
    55.30 FF%
    55.41 SF%
    53.33 GF%
    9.76 OI SH%
    89.39 OI SV%
    0.992 PDO
    50.54 OZ Faceoff%

    Lucic in 278:31 5v5
    51.67 CF%
    53.65 FF%
    54.09 SF%
    37.50 GF%
    6.98 OI SH%
    86.30 OI SV%
    0.933 PDO
    52.91 OZ Faceoff%

    So Khaira had better numbers in every category, wasn’t PDOing, and did so despite the slight OZ push Lucic got. His personal SH% while with Draisaitl was 8.7%, well below his season and his career averages, so to say “Khaira had a unsustainably high shooting percentage” is incorrect. Also, Lucic with Leon had a 10.81 SH%, far above his season average of 6.8% so calling his SH% “unusustainably low” is also a mischaracterization.

  60. hunter1909 says:

    bendelson,

    Looks like my pal Kevin.

  61. godot10 says:

    digger50: McLellan must have taken over

    Testing. Testing. Testing.

  62. bendelson says:

    hunter1909:
    bendelson,

    Looks like my pal Kevin.

    Handsome bastard, that Kevin…

  63. Lowetide says:

    No one is currently banned. I enjoy Kinger’s posts very much, always have. If you’re older and find music selection is stuck in the past, have kids! And listen to anyone ever involved with the Talking Heads, everything from the beginning through today.

  64. dustrock says:

    Lowetide:
    No one is currently banned. I enjoy Kinger’s posts very much, always have. If you’re older and find music selection is stuck in the past, have kids! And listen to anyone ever involved with the Talking Heads, everything from the beginning through today.

    Glad to hear that nobody on this site currently needs A Clean Break

  65. hunter1909 says:

    bendelson: Handsome bastard, that Kevin…

    Kevin’s definitely one of the coolest people I know.

  66. Richard S.S. says:

    Lowetide,

    Boo! Rock and Roll was created for forever. Very little music created after the mid- to late 80s interests me. Too many bad singers, too many people who can’t sing, crappy music and inability to carry a tune are some the issues I found with the music. 800 songs on my iPhone is enough, even with 132 GB.

  67. Melvis says:

    After Stand Back, I burned a few hours yesterday chasing Stevie Nicks around, plus any number of others that recorded at Sound City in Van Nuys in the 70’s. And the following seems analogous to most of my listening experiences. Today, I’m wondering whatever happened to that Paul Revere and the Raiders vinyl I wore out.

    Analogy Rule One:

    Concepts are connected by analogy. There is no way to decide at once whether an analogy is good or bad, because to some degree everything is connected to something else. For example, potato crosses with apple, because both are vegetable and round in shape. From apple to snake, By Biblical association. From snake to doughnut, by formal likeness. From doughnut to life preserver, and from life preserver to bathing suit, then bathing to sea, sea to ship, ship tp shit, shit to toilet paper, toilet to cologne, cologne to alcohol, alcohol to drugs, drugs to syringe, syringe to hole, hole to ground, ground to potato.

    Umberto Eco – Foucault’s Pendulum via S,M,L,XL by Rem Koolhaas and Bruce Mau

    I used to think nothing of burning a day listening to music to the exclusion of everything else. Less so as the years went by. Now I’m really picking my spots, since I’m no longer suffering any delusions about living forever. Nor am I any good at multi-tasking.

    Reading a book or making an object, or doing anything, in fact, means doing so in silence. (That I Pod gathering dust over there stares stonily at me). Concentrated thinking and concentrated music listening seem mutually exclusive to me these days.

    And I tend to put an hour in the morning and one late evenings outdoors listening to nothing but nature.

    Music certainly isn’t a waste of time. Far from it and quite the opposite. Thing is, it really distracts and cuts into valuable production time.

    And keep me away from Garage Band. I could burn a year dicking around in there.

  68. Oilman99 says:

    Jaxon:
    I think Nurse could get a bridge in the 4.0 to 4.167 range and deservedly so. It also would decrease the size of his next contract and show some goodwill. Bridges are just that. A lesser amount with the expectation that your GM will make up the difference in the next contract. I wish they had room to sign him for 8 years at 6 per. 48 over 8. If they pay him 3×2 years that means he could expect to get 42 over 6 years or 7 per. If they pay him 4×2 years, that means he could expect to get 40 over 6 years Or 6.67 per. But he’ll also be a better player by the time he signs the next one so you have to increase the contract for that, too. So I think they could be paying him over 7.5M on the next contract. I think Koskinen’s overpay (not to mention Lucic and Russell) has cost them a chance to lock Nurse in long term at a decent price.

    $4.0 is over pay, $3-3.25 is the max based on his stats, experience compared to guys like Montouer,et al.

  69. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: And here I thought it was just your unwavering commitment to personal development ; )

    It was that and my desire to catch up to Steve “v4.0” Tambellini (“now with less Vish!”)

  70. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909,

    Not exactly sure which Nurse we’re talking about, but Darnell Nurse last season struck me as occasionally taking the puck from end to end, but by the time he crossed the blue line he seemed clueless.

    Yeah, that’s the guy.

    That what a lot of us saw.

    If Oates can teach him this clue and he develops offensive instincts he could have another level.

    I find this very interesting as I think most offensive players simply *just think the game that way* and always have and build off of that base.

    Nurse doesn’t seem to have a base to build off of in this particular area.

    I have no idea if a base can be taught to someone in the NHL.

    Oates is an interesting dude, I wouldn’t bet against him.

    I wouldn’t bet against 25’s desire to learn and get better either, but you can’t teach dogs to climb trees to chase the cats.

    Nature vs. Nurture.

    WHO YA GOT?

  71. Melvis says:

    bendelson,

    Bears a remarkable resemblance to bow and arrow wielding, creepy Kevin. Do we have to talk about him?

  72. Richard S.S. says:

    Oilman99,

    That was one of the most reasonable suggestions for Nurse thus far. Whether the Agent agrees?

  73. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Mountour is a decent, although imperfect, comparable for Nurse.

    Montour has produced more offensively and has a higher offensive ceiling whereas Nurse is the better defender and has played tougher minutes.

    On the other hand, Montour is a right shot and had arbitration rights.

    Given the foregoing, I would think Nurse should come in slightly under Montour but, alas, I believe he will come in slightly higher than Montour because, well, because that is how we do….

    There is a reason Nurse has not been signed,here’s hoping they play hardball with him,the cap situation dictates such. Not sure after Montour’s deal Nurse has much bargaining power.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: A key to the season for me is Matt Benning and his ability to take that 2RD spot and run with it – if he can do that and Russell can truly play 3rd pairing at evens, I like the overall look of the defence.

    Yes, agreed, which is why the post your responded to had the following:

    “A key to the season for me is Matt Benning and his ability to take that 2RD spot and run with it – if he can do that and Russell can truly play 3rd pairing at evens, I like the overall look of the defence.”

  75. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    hunter1909,

    Not exactly sure which Nurse we’re talking about, but Darnell Nurse last season struck me as occasionally taking the puck from end to end, but by the time he crossed the blue line he seemed clueless.

    Yeah, that’s the guy.

    That what a lot of us saw.

    If Oates can teach him this clue and he develops offensive instincts he could have another level.

    I find this very interesting as I think most offensive players simply *just think the game that way* and always have and build off of that base.

    Nurse doesn’t seem to have a base to build off of in this particular area.

    I have no idea if a base can be taught to someone in the NHL.

    Oates is an interesting dude, I wouldn’t bet against him.

    I wouldn’t bet against 25’s desire to learn and get better either, but you can’t teach dogs to climb trees to chase the cats.

    Nature vs. Nurture.

    WHO YA GOT?

    Even if Oates teaches him to: “Take it deep, circle the net, find the trailer and get back to the blue line” I bet if CF/60 and DFF/60 jump.

  76. pitlickdinner says:

    RICKI:

    post your work pls. we’re all interested but at this point you’re getting by on mystique.
    closed shots? 0% corsi defensive affect??

    we need FULL metric names and definitions, pls.
    if you post them, we will come.

  77. Melvis says:

    See? Now Hall and Oates are getting in the damn way.

  78. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I’ve never seen Bendelson on mushrooms, (I might have in university, but if so I was zooming too and don’t remember) but every time I see his avatar it just looks like Bendelson peaking on something fun.

    Seriously, its not that far off what he actually looks like.

    I mean that in the best way possible.

  79. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    pitlickdinner,

    post your work pls. we’re all interested but at this point you’re getting by on mystique.

    *checks odometer*

    We passed mystique in 2014

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    See? Now Hall and Oates are getting in the damn way.

    Do you feel like private eyes are watching you?

    *clap,clap*

  81. maddex says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    The ol’ Ales Hemsky special right there, bring him on a PTO for first hand training.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Russel signed a 1 year deal at 3.1MM: by all accounts he out-played that account, and did well in playoffs which increased his value.That 1 year deal was a deal, and quick moving by Chia once he realized Griff was not going to cut it.

    – Sure 4×4 is probably 1 year too long, but lets see what happens after this year.The deal was structured so that he is imminently tradeable

    – Lots of teams would have signed him after that year.What if his agent said: “we like you guys, but he’s got 4×3 in Cali.Give him an 4rth year and he’s yours

    – I bet that happens a lot more than most realize: its the premium required to bring in Free Agents to a place where most Free Agents last 10 years come to play their last games in the NHL

    – Chia overpays some players, thats’ for sure: I don’t think it is because he is a bad GM, or just doesn’t understand the implications, or he’s a poor negociator nearly as much asit’s a reflection of the reality and choices made.Plus his cap guy suck: get rid of that Scott guy, and bring in a wonk

    1) Not by “all accounts” did he outplay the $3.1M – by some accounts but its definitely debatable and many have a differeing opinion.

    2) Given the NMC which remains for the scheduled expansion draft, the contract may be untradeable as opposed to imminently tradeable

    3) noone could know what other teams may have offered Russell because he was signed on June 23, prior to even the talking period. Peter Chiarelli spoke after the team was eliminated from the playoff about the need to improve the defence to compete with the likes of NSH and ANA and then signed a contract that locked in the defensive group for years and assured the inability to actually improve at the top end.

    4) A premium should not have to be paid for a player that wanted to play in Western Canada to the extent possible.

    5) Chia went 0/3 on this contract – he lost on cap hit, on term and on trade protection (which there should have been zero).

    I like Kris Russell but in a certain role which is 3rd pairing and PK guy. His skillset should not have led to a 4 X $4M, high trade-protection contract on June 23 when he was approaching 30 years old.

  83. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador,

    What is the closed hole variance for HD kilometerage anyhow?

    Half a furlong per hogshead.

    At least I think its that.

    The conversion sheet is buried under my porch in an envelope I mailed to myself 10 years ago.

  84. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    maddex:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    The ol’ Ales Hemsky special right there, bring him on a PTO for first hand training.

    Just needs to avoid “get shoulder scrambled by Regher *spits*” while trying to cut the corner

  85. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    I think it’s twofold, the coach’s trust in Russell and distrust in Benning.

    I know CF carries a ton of weight around here, but please bear with me, what else is there that proves Benning is a better option that Russell? Because what I saw on the ice from Benning when we didn’t have the puck wasn’t good, and I watched all 82.

    The bigger concern pairing Nurse and Benning together is what happens to Nurse, if he has to hang back and cover if Benning’s myriad mistakes pop up again.

    Akin to Sekera’s offense falling back covering for Klefbom a few seasons ago…

  86. stephen sheps says:

    bendelson,

    Glad my memory wasn’t playing tricks on me. I thought it was you, but it could have just as easily been dustrock or Bag of Pucks, based on many prior music threads.

    Thanks everyone for humouring me with the music convo this morning/early afternoon. It’s funny, now that I am writing about analytics (and hockey and sport media) for research, I much prefer coming here to hang out and talk to y’all about things that aren’t hockey related. I don’t know what that says about me exactly, but here we are.

  87. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Half a furlong per hogshead.

    Are we talking Bourbon hogshead or Sherry. They’re different sizes of cask 😉

  88. digger50 says:

    Lowetide:
    No one is currently banned. I enjoy Kinger’s posts very much, always have. If you’re older and find music selection is stuck in the past, have kids! And listen to anyone ever involved with the Talking Heads, everything from the beginning through today.

    Ha ha

    I had kids

    Then I listened to Barney the purple dinosaur, graduating to do wop teen pop and now whatever Rapper is on the radio. Ouch. One of my favourite things to listen to now on a long drive?
    Silence.

    I’m just being stuffy

  89. stephen sheps says:

    deardylan:
    Love this quote LT,

    “…but you are what you are. If you see or hear quality, acknowledge it and own it. Those things are what make you unique.”

    Comes in handy during my roller coasting job search in TO.Almost 3 months in, 100+ applications, 4 interviews and 0 job offers.

    NEXT!!

    #winorlearn #thereimmigrationgame

    Hang in there, friend. It’s a tough time and a tough market.

    When I moved back to Toronto after my academic exile to Tennessee, it took me 6 months to land on my feet. I tried my own field, I tried to leave academia for private sector research and non-profit work. I took every single informational interview with people in fields outside of my own as I could wrangle and mobilized my secondary and tertiary networks as best as I could. In the end, I found myself in academia anyway, though I’m precariously employed and my contract is up at the end of December, so I’m still grinding in a way.

    Take Kinger and Jethro’s advice – look around, step out of your comfort zone and talk to anyone. If Kinger’s “hobby” is networking and making connections, meet with him. He probably knows a bunch of people in a lot of different fields.

    And if you ever want to grab a coffee (since I know you’re not a drinker and also because this town has loads of great independent coffee shops), let me know. At the very least I can provide an empathetic ear.

  90. digger50 says:

    In the spring Bobby Nicholson told us we would get behind the team and get behind Peter once we understood “the plan”

    Has anybody heard the plan?

  91. jfry says:

    can someone help guide me to a place that has age adjusted NHLe for the last draft? thank you!

  92. bendelson says:

    Now that we’ve established I really do look like a creepy but cool, mushroom zooming, knife wielding, ventriloquist dummy named Kevin, please feel free to say hello when you see me on the streets of Edmonton.

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stephen sheps: Are we talking Bourbon hogshead or Sherry. They’re different sizes of cask 😉

    Got a shovel so I can check?

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    bendelson:
    Now that we’ve established I really do look like a cool, mushroom zooming, knife wielding, ventriloquist dummy named Kevin, please feel free to say hello when you see me on the streets of Edmonton.

    Strong post.

  95. VOR says:

    Here is an actual research paper on music and the brain. Not hidden behind a pay wall and written in plain English.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5618809/

    Apropos of nothing, as I am posting this I am watching my wive watching video of teenagers who were asked to make a call on a rotary dial phone. None of them can figure out they have to take the phone off the cradle before they dial.

  96. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Got a shovel so I can check?

    Somewhere, probably.

    Though if you’ve got barrels of whisky (or sherry) buried in your backyard, we need to have a talk…

    edit: also I’m lying. Hogsheads are always the same size, they just for whatever reason hold different volumes of beer vs. wine vs. brandy

  97. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    – Russel is owed $5.5MM in salary after this year for the next two years.

    – There is a big difference between your take that Chia is locked down on 4×4 and the reality of what will happen and what is available after this year

    – If Russel is surpassed by any/all of Benning, Bouchard, Bear by the end of the year, he will be traded to another team.

    – He costs $2.75MM/year in the last 2 years of his contract.

    – I think you think Chia is an idiot and does not understand, and he stupidly paid 4×4 and point to this as proof of his crippled this team

    – I think Chia did a deal that made sense to the player, provided coverage and things the team wanted for the development of other D, and I bet he gets traded without problem or rancour next year or later.

    – I also think Chia had to pay more than the next guy because Edmonton. I think Russel gets 4×3 from another team after his year in Edmonton at $3.1MM

    – He’s a real NHL D, that as he ages, costs less, and has more competition. He’s not 4×4, the deal was structured to anticipate that which you speak of IMO: i.e. getting older and no longer top4

    – I think if there were better options at D that the team thought they could make after that year they would have. I also think Russel deserved a contract with the Oil and it was competitive. To lose Russel after the one year would have been rightly seen as a bad move

    *of course: Chis is a bad GM, and we have a bad coach, and I wish we had Eberle and Hall and a better D than Larsson as well, and that we didn’t have Lucic the boat anchor. We are in an awful situation to start this year that is a result of poor GM’ing and poor coaching.

  98. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Pescador,

    What is the closed hole variance for HD kilometerage anyhow?

    Half a furlong per hogshead.

    At least I think its that.

    The conversion sheet is buried under my porch in an envelope I mailed to myself 10 years ago.

    The metric system is the tool of the Devil! My car gets forty rods to the hogshead, and that’s the way I likes it!” – Abe “Grampa” Simpson

  99. Professor Q says:

    VOR:
    Here is an actual research paper on music and the brain. Not hidden behind a pay wall and written in plain English.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5618809/

    Apropos of nothing, as I am posting this I am watching my wive watching video of teenagers who were asked to make a call on a rotary dial phone. None of them can figure out they have to take the phone off the cradle before they dial.

    As an aside, for some reason I enjoy the stories behind the sampling and reusing of popular tunes practiced in the ’90s (various genres), and tracking down the previous iterations and sources (be they obscure or former hits).

    However, the contemporary practice of sampling and autotune etc. bother me to quite an irrational degree (mostly because their baselines and beats stolen from my childhood ’90s tunes are now famous due to them, erasing those older tunes from popular recognition).

    Like Say Yeah by Whiz Khalifa or Play Hard by David Guetta, which both sampled Alice Deejay’s “Better Off Alone”, which is a classic and inovative trance/dance hit in its own right (and could be cobsidered highly influential).

    I guess I really am growing old…

  100. stephen sheps says:

    VOR:
    Here is an actual research paper on music and the brain. Not hidden behind a pay wall and written in plain English.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5618809/

    Apropos of nothing, as I am posting this I am watching my wive watching video of teenagers who were asked to make a call on a rotary dial phone. None of them can figure out they have to take the phone off the cradle before they dial.

    Fantastic article. Thanks for sharing!

  101. maudite says:

    My brother and I used to buy all the records at auction sales because they sold for like a dollar for the whole collection. Which was insane given 1 tape or cd cost 20+ dolllars. If I ever got to stay in a hotel or in town I would spend any spare moment staring at music television on cable. Allthough there is many things about the internet that have gotten worse over time music exposure is definitely a big counterbalance one. It’s crazy having the unlimited potential to always find new or better.

    I guess what I’m trying to say is that I definitely also agree that a lot more people are going to be a lot less likely to end up locked into their music and not still finding new or not yet heard of because it is so much easier now than it ever has been.

    Thanks for the kicks reference LT…I never knew who sang that jam. It also had a pretty sweet rabbit hole effect on youtube and I’m enjoying a bunch of buffalo springfield jams that I can’t even recall the last time I threw on the old turntable.

    stephen sheps: This is from the tail end of the last thread, but given our host’s discussion about music and bands we love even if we probably shouldn’t, it seemed worth carrying over to today’s conversation.

    It’s interesting what this study suggests, but I’d counter that the results of this survey will change dramatically in the next 10-15 years as music streaming services become the new normal. Curated playlists with new music suggestions are pretty standard across apple and spotify’s platforms, which will lead to more discovery by default, and while conventional music magazines like the once mighty Rolling Stone and it’s alternative era cousin Spin aren’t what they used to be, music blogs and websites like Pitchfork, Brooklyn Vegan, Consequence of Sound and Stereogum are widely read and aren’t limited to a single genre. Kids that grow up with these platforms will see discovery as the normal rather than the exception as they age.

    The fact that we can have as many conversations about music here on what is ostensibly a whisky and BBQ blog that sometimes veers into hockey talk all but proves that this survey data might not be accurate soon enough. Even a couple weeks back, a poster (Bendelson I think) asked the community for new music. Some of the lists were outstanding. I pride myself on being pretty plugged in despite quickly approaching the dreaded ‘middle age’, but there were a few things I hadn’t heard of that based on other posters’ suggestions I really enjoyed. As Lowetide, said above: “If you see or hear quality, acknowledge it and own it. Those things are what make you unique.” Truer words…

    Maybe people aren’t going out of their way to look for new sounds past 28, but new sounds will find the people.

  102. Wilde says:

    Bag of Pucks: inspire people to play AND practice again.

    John Mayer does this for me with the guitar, that guy plays fucking clean.

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Gregor said on his show yesterday that Nurse is specifically working on making better decisions with the puck in the ozone on the rush with Adam Oates this summer.

    This is the missing piece, but I’m not sure you can just plug it in at his age.

    I remember reading anecdotes about Russians growing up playing hockey and they were saying that your hands start and end early developing.

    As in if you don’t have hands at speed by 15-16, you won’t have them at all.

    It would be nice if Darnell could spare us from the masochism of watching him spirit the puck up the ice only to abruptly neuter the danger of the play circa blue-line arrival.

    But half the time it isn’t even the idea part of it, he just doesn’t execute a simple play despite effort. Two recent examples I’ve watched:

    – Nurse rushes the puck up the ice, Lucic is on the left boards waiting onside, then Darnell roars right past him and does the simple kickout off his backhand, except it was at least 10 feet further into the zone that Lucic could have possibly been if he was anyone but 97. Did this with a flat puck closest to peace that there is in hockey.

    – A dangerous sequence down low in the offensive zone created by the forwards draws an opposing team winger (playing F3) lower, before the Oilers pass it low to high and Nurse has time and space. He absolutely wires it straight into the recovering F3’s shinpads and it goes the other way. If you’re not just gonna fake the shot and go around the first guy, you /cannot/ hit the first guy.

    Now I’m not down on Nurse. He’s a weapon, and one that excels in most of the game that’s most important for a rearguard, without the finishing touches that would also certainly make him much more expensive. He’ll be very efficient and effective in dollars if they don’t pay too much snarl tax.

  103. Bag of Pucks says:

    Melvis,

    RE: Music as distraction. That’s why the car is the go to listening device for me now. 440 watt JBL system and I’m the sole DJ : )

    Listening to music for me is very zen these days because it reminds me to stay in and enjoy the moment. Much prefer that over worrying over any random or transient thought that happens to wander in. I used to think about work almost 24/7. Now I think about it only when I’m there. THAT is significant life progress!

  104. Wilde says:

    I keep getting interrupting myself by getting piping mad at bad calls from literally months ago.

    Example A:

    https://streamable.com/83r9i

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    OriginalPouzar,

    – Russel is owed $5.5MM in salary after this year for the next two years.

    – There is a big difference between your take that Chia is locked down on 4×4 and the reality of what will happen and what is available after this year

    – If Russel is surpassed by any/all of Benning, Bouchard, Bear by the end of the year, he will be traded to another team.

    – He costs $2.75MM/year in the last 2 years of his contract.

    – I think you think Chia is an idiot and does not understand, and he stupidly paid 4×4 and point to this as proof of his crippled this team

    – I think Chia did a deal that made sense to the player, provided coverage and things the team wanted for the development of other D, and I bet he gets traded without problem or rancour next year or later.

    – I also think Chia had to pay more than the next guy because Edmonton.I think Russel gets 4×3 from another team after his year in Edmonton at $3.1MM

    – He’s a real NHL D, that as he ages, costs less, and has more competition.He’s not 4×4, the deal was structured to anticipate that which you speak of IMO: i.e. getting older and no longer top4

    – I think if there were better options at D that the team thought they could make after that year they would have.I also think Russel deserved a contract with the Oil and it was competitive.To lose Russel after the one year would have been rightly seen as a bad move

    *of course: Chis is a bad GM, and we have a bad coach, and I wish we had Eberle and Hall and a better D than Larsson as well, and that we didn’t have Lucic the boat anchor.We are in an awful situation to start this year that is a result of poor GM’ing and poor coaching.

    Again, Kris Russell has a NMC that will be in effect for the current scheduling of the expansion draft. This would mean any team acquiring Kris Russell would do so with the knowledge that they had to use a protected spot on him.

    Do you see many teams, shit, any teams, that want to acquire Kris Russell and protect him in the expansion draft.

    Kris Russell wanted to sign with 2-3 teams, no premium should have been paid and, if one was required, the option is, walk away!

    No better options? This contract was signed on June 23 – there were a myriad of options.

    It was a contract on the day it was signed and it remains a bad contract.

    I don’t know what your last paragraph is about – I praise Chiarelli in due course for many moves. I NEVER bring up wanting to have Eberle or Hall on this team. I can criticize certain moves the man makes (Koskinen, Russell) without having an overall hatred for him as a GM and bias against him as you suggest.

  106. pitlickdinner says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    he’s vague and he’s always throwing rocks at you – it’s not unreasonable of you to shut him out, but i feel like there’s SOMETHING to what he’s getting at with defensive measures. if only he’d GET to it.
    or maybe being vague is his game and there’s nothing there. i’d just like to have more of an idea.

    p.s. rikki, if getting/feeling better is what keeps you from this stuff then, obviously, feel free to ignore me.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    Finally some verbal from the coach today after the golf event. Still listening but, of course, didn’t say too much.

    https://omny.fm/shows/ched/july-25-todd-mclellan

  108. bendelson says:

    Bag of Pucks: I used to think about work almost 24/7. Now I think about it only when I’m there. THAT is significant life progress!

    Insert balance photo here.

  109. pts2pndr says:

    who: Those pairings only work if Benning can handle 2RD.
    If he struggles, like he did at the start of last year, you are going to see Russell there again.
    No matter how much you hate it.

    The problem I have is this does not work both ways! The coaches default is always back to certain players! Ie Cagguila and Russel.

  110. Wilde says:

    pitlickdinner,

    To understand Ricki, you have to employ the same technique of when you’re trying to get the general gist of what’s being said in some academic journal full of technical language that you don’t understand.(Like when I’m reading VOR speak about something in his field) You just wait for a term or phrase to be used in different functions and fill in the blanks, like reading above your vocabulary level and trying to figure out what a word means by waiting for different instances.

    The difference is that Ricki’s language is Ricki’s language and not verifiable by any outside source, so that you have to read through many of his posts for reoccurring instances of the terms.

    And that he skips a lot of grammatical necessities that normally make the whole process possible.

  111. pts2pndr says:

    hunter1909: Not exactly sure which Nurse we’re talking about, but Darnell Nurse last season struck me as occasionally taking the puck from end to end, but by the time he crossed the blue line he seemed clueless.

    I am a huge fan of his style of play, and the player is very cool, but honestly I’m not seeing a lot of offense in him, in fact he’s regressing to my beady eye.

    Paul Coffey, my all time fave Oiler will of course sort everything out for Nurse by the 1st game of the regular season and bunnies and rainbows will appear over Ayers Rock.

    I believe coaching could help. Connor sees Nurse go he goes with him and gives him a target. Too often he was left without an option. This is an area that can be explored as an offensive advantage!

  112. pitlickdinner says:

    Wilde,

    good point, but he goes beyond jargon. he teases!

  113. Gerta Rauss says:

    Georgexs:
    If I click post comment and my comment isn’t posted, does that mean I’m banned from commenting?

    We’ve already got a George..:)

  114. Munny says:

    Melvis: After Stand Back, I burned a few hours yesterday chasing Stevie Nicks around, plus any number of others that recorded at Sound City in Van Nuys in the 70’s.

    John Stewart?

    Melvis: Umberto Eco – Foucault’s Pendulum via S,M,L,XL by Rem Koolhaas and Bruce Mau

    Just amazing. Both Eco and Koolhaas. If I had to throw another hat into that ring it would be Hofstadter’s Golden Braid.

    I learned a lot about narrative structure from an architect. They’re wonderful

    I’ve promised myself that one day I’m gonna vamoose to Barcelona to experience Gaudi in person… with maybe a side trip to the Cathedral at Chartres.

  115. Munny says:

    This was a very enjoyable thread to read today. Wish I had more time to spend more time with it.

  116. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    “I wouldn’t bet against 25’s desire to learn and get better either, but you can’t teach dogs to climb trees to chase the cats.”

    +1 on the Nurse Evaluation.

    But coaches can teach him to NOT follow his dump ins. That would be a start.

  117. jtblack says:

    RANDOM THOUGHT:

    I was dissapointed with TMac last year, on many levels.

    I am optimistic that new assistants will help T Mac “adjust” better.

    With better player usage in all disciplines, I do beleive this is a playoff team. Connor tilts the scales so dramatically, that anything less will be unacceptable

  118. stephen sheps says:

    Wilde: And that he skips a lot of grammatical necessities that normally make the whole process possible.

    It’s less skipping and more that’s just how he processes language.

    You’re right though, it is a lot like reading an academic article in a field you don’t really know too well. The ideas are often great, but mastering the jargon and cadence/flow of the writing takes time – like when I first tried to read Nietzsche. The first 5 or so passes of “Genealogy of Morals” brought me nothing but frustration, made me feel like the nihilists of the Lebowski variety. Then after a couple drinks of something, likely very bad red wine since I hadn’t quite graduated to whisky yet, things started to become more clear.

    The next day I went back at the excerpt I had to give a presentation on and suddenly the words that made no sense for a week started to come together.

    It’s the same with a lot of Ricki-isms. I just wish I had a bit more certainty about what 0%Corsi really meant, but I think I can see what the measurement trying to say/do.

  119. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Awesome info WG. And one of the prime reasons why I always prefer raw numbers over percentages. With the raw, I can always work out the percentage if I want it. Working backwards is impossible.

    *wink wink nudge nudge*

  120. VOR says:

    Wilde:
    pitlickdinner,

    To understand Ricki, you have to employ the same technique of when you’re trying to get the general gist of what’s being said in some academic journal full of technical language that you don’t understand.(Like when I’m reading VOR speak about something in his field) You just wait for a term or phrase to be used in different functions and fill in the blanks, like reading above your vocabulary level and trying to figure out what a word means by waiting for different instances.

    The difference is that Ricki’s language is Ricki’s language and not verifiable by any outside source, so that you have to read through many of his posts for reoccurring instances of the terms.

    And that he skips a lot of grammatical necessities that normally make the whole process possible.

    As you probably know Ricki and I occasionally actually engage and have discussions.

    I am convinced his ideas are conceptually flawed.

    Take for example his concept of closed shot.

    I need to pause here and explain I love, have always loved code breaking. And thus foreign languages and computer code. Ricki is like a wickedly fun word puzzle. But it helps that I have a Rosetta Stone. I have read him in straightforward expository English and can make guesses about how Ricki’s ramblings would sound in a more structured English.

    By closed shot he means a shot the goalie should stop. And right there he goes off the tracks. Ricki has never played goal. He doesn’t allow for what the puck can see, the quickness of the release, the amount of puck movement particularly across the Royal Road, the speed of that movement, etc in his determination of what is a closed shot.

    What a shooter can see, what the audience can see matters not at all in determining how dangerous a scoring chance is. What matters is how well the goalie is setting up based on the release point of the puck. Basically imagine a camera on top of the puck. From that perspective how well is the goalie set up.

    The quickness of release is the best predictor of scoring. Thus a growing believe in catch and release training for shooters. One timing is best but hard to master even for many NHL players. But nearly every NHL player can learn to take a pass and then shoot at a speed very similar to one timing just with a slower shot.

    Another huge predictor of goal scoring success is how many times the puck has crossed the Royal Road – a line from the mid point of one net to the other. If the puck crosses the line the goalie needs to move to make fundamental positional adjustments. If it moves a lot and quickly the goalie will be going crazy trying to get prepared. Even if properly positioned mentally they will still be moving.

    Not to mention the puck is a frozen rubber disc. The surface is slippery and rougher than we might think. The puck can and does do weird things in flight. And great shooters are also firing it at very high speeds. “I think it dipped,” is a common goalie lament.

    Basically what I am saying is Ricki believes you can tell from a static analysis whether a goalie should be able to stop a shot. He is wrong. All of his other work descends from this one, tragically flawed idea.

    Every goalie will say things like, “”I should have had that one.” We all think we should have had every shot we have ever faced. But that is how we get in a net for tens of thousands of minutes of having people fire frozen rubber at our heads. None of us are delusional enough to think we can let up for a second on any shot. There are no certain saves in hockey. There is no such thing as a closed shot.

  121. VOR says:

    stephen sheps: It’s less skipping and more that’s just how he processes language.

    You’re right though, it is a lot like reading an academic article in a field you don’t really know too well. The ideas are often great, but mastering the jargon and cadence/flow of the writing takes time – like when I first tried to read Nietzsche. The first 5 or so passes of “Genealogy of Morals” brought me nothing but frustration, made me feel like the nihilists of the Lebowski variety. Then after a couple drinks of something, likely very bad red wine since I hadn’t quite graduated to whisky yet, things started to become more clear.

    The next day I went back at the excerpt I had to give a presentation on and suddenly the words that made no sense for a week started to come together.

    It’s the same with a lot of Ricki-isms. I just wish I had a bit more certainty about what 0%Corsi really meant, but I think I can see what the measurement trying to say/do.

    0% Corsi is a closed shot attempt.

  122. Wilde says:

    VOR,

    I have the same concern about the 0% Corsi idea.

    Another part I wonder about is the definitiveness of the ‘route trees’ which is basically the concept of a defensive flow-chart that if followed correctly results in the 0% Corsi.

    It too ignores the frozen rubber disc element.

    Another again is the identification of HD Dmen who are or aren’t playing under HD system coaches. How do you distinguish between defensemen who are able to play the HD system effectively but just aren’t playing under a coaching staff whose systems conform, and a defenseman in the same environment who has no such ability, based on lack of intrinsic ability?

    Ditto goalies and table hockey movement.

    Who can play it but doesn’t, who can’t play it at all, and how do you tell?

    Do you have to acquire ex-NJD defensemen, or do you just build the factory on your own land?

  123. Richard S.S. says:

    Every Player has people in favour of them, from a little bit to a lot. Every Player has people opposed to them, from a little bit to a lot. Very few people who have an oppinion are neutral.

    Whether accompanied by a load of facts/data or just regular paragraphs each post is an opinion. A person’s oppinion is never right but never wrong, it’s an opinion. All a fellow poster can do is agree, disagree or ignore the whole thing.

  124. VOR says:

    So years ago a bunch of us started saying Corsi was a poor measure for defensemen. Ricki’s central theory is that this is because we are counting 0% Corsi.

    That is the measure of a defenceman is how well he prevents shots that have a chance of scoring. Not how well they prevent shots that have zero chance of scoring. This sounds intuitively correct.

    But it comes apart when you realize that in hockey no shot is harmless and different shooters present different risk profiles from different areas of the ice. For example,scoring top corner from the crease is a gift given to only a few players but you really don’t want them in your crease.

    More later. Cooking now.

  125. pitlickdinner says:

    VOR,

    thank you for explaining, VOR.
    agreed on all counts but i think D structure can still LIMIT to a degree. hard to measure.

  126. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Again, Kris Russell has a NMC that will be in effect for the current scheduling of the expansion draft.This would mean any team acquiring Kris Russell would do so with the knowledge that they had to use a protected spot on him.

    Do you see many teams, shit, any teams, that want to acquire Kris Russell and protect him in the expansion draft.

    Kris Russell wanted to sign with 2-3 teams, no premium should have been paid and, if one was required, the option is, walk away!

    No better options?This contract was signed on June 23 – there were a myriadN of options.

    It was a contract on the day it was signed and it remains a bad contract.

    I don’t know what your last paragraph is about – I praise Chiarelli in due course for many moves.I NEVER bring up wanting to have Eberle or Hall on this team. I can criticize certain moves the man makes (Koskinen, Russell) without having an overall hatred for him as a GM and bias against him as you suggest.

    Movement clauses don’t travel unless the acquiring team agrees. They don’t have to after this season because PC can trade Russell to one of the teams on his list regardless of what he wants.

    This year he could agree to a trade and insist the clauses are honoured, but it seems that ship has sailed.

  127. Melvis says:

    digger50: One of my favourite things to listen to now on a long drive?
    Silence.

    Me too. You’re not being stuffy. It’s a bit like being in the shower first thing in the morning.

  128. Melvis says:

    Munny,

    Not John Stewart. I knew the original owners. Also Keith Olsen and Richard Dashutt. I spent a lot of late nights there with a lot of different musicians. I was sitting in on a demo session one of those nights when Mick Fleetwood came in to listen to some Buckinham/ Nicks tape. It was Jeff Porcaro’s favourite studio for drum sound.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Movement clauses don’t travel unless the acquiring team agrees. They don’t have to after this season because PC can trade Russell to one of the teams on his list regardless of what he wants.

    This year he could agree to a trade and insist the clauses are honoured, but it seems that ship has sailed.

    You know what, you are right and I knew this and, in fact, I’ve posted on the very point before.

    Stupid moment and I apologize.

    The NMC is only an issue if he is waiving to allow the trade (and insists that the clause is honored by the acquiring team as a condition of the waive).

  130. Melvis says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    So you’re one of those gang bangers always driving around going: BOMP, BOMP,BOMP, BOMP,BOMP?

  131. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: You know what, you are right and I knew this and, in fact, I’ve posted on the very point before.

    Stupid moment and I apologize.

    The NMC is only an issue if he is waiving to allow the trade (and insists that the clause is honored by the acquiring team as a condition of the waive).

    No worries there are only a few posters like you that have a broad knowledge of the bazillion clauses involved. I am not one of them but looked that up a while back and actually remembered it.

    I blame my kids.

  132. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Melvis:
    Bag of Pucks,

    So you’re one of those gang bangers always driving around going: BOMP, BOMP,BOMP, BOMP,BOMP?

    Pull your pants up!!

  133. Admiral Ackbar says:

    VOR,

    Oh man that was a great read. Great critical analysis of his argument & I always appreciate your logic/knowledge base!

  134. Melvis says:

    stephen sheps: Somewhere, probably.

    Though if you’ve got barrels of whisky (or sherry) buried in your backyard, we need to have a talk…

    edit: also I’m lying. Hogsheads are always the same size, they just for whatever reason hold different volumes of beer vs. wine vs. brandy

    I’ve won a coupleof rounds betting people I could pour an 8 ounce glass of tomato juice into an 8 ounce glass of beer. It takes patience and a steady hand sliding the juice down the inside of the beer glass, but about about 4 ounces is usually pretty convincing.

  135. Melvis says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Damn analogy again. I remember this big, horn heavy jazz band at George’s Spaghetti House in TO. They did a catchy tune called My Big Inch. I always wondered about it’s origins. The great thing about the webs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rws_7mLTqj8&frags=pl%2Cwn

  136. Melvis says:

    Yeah, I know. Freudian slip. Ha ha.

  137. dcsj says:

    VOR: dcsj

    Thanks very much for both links. I read a book years ago called Music, the Brain, and Ecstasy by Robert Jourdain. (I think that is the name.) It is out of print now, but what I understood of it was quite interesting.

    Back to the topic at hand…

  138. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde:
    I keep getting interrupting myself by getting piping mad at bad calls from literally months ago.

    Example A:

    https://streamable.com/83r9i

    I love that Drai move where guys try to check him and he just bounces them to the ground. He’s going to be even stronger this year!! He shouldn’t have retaliated though.

  139. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965: I love that Drai move where guys try to check him and he just bounces them to the ground. He’s going to be even stronger this year!! He shouldn’t have retaliated though.

    Disagree, I’ve got all the time in the world for that crosscheck. Vatrano swung his stick at Drai’s face during the fall, too, not just the leg hold. If Leon doesn’t notice what he”s doing quick enough he could have easily injured himself.

  140. rickithebear says:

    When Atco built the 2 units at sheerness.
    The screwed the process as bad as possible.
    Pre 1 year lawsuit with major contractor.
    6 lawsuits against major contractors on failed systems
    With test reports indicated handed by lead Atco engineers.
    Years later found by me miss filled and all failed tests not meeting requirements.
    5 failed delivery by sub contractors approved subs.

    From that Atco set up a standard based on worst run progect.

    Must achieve a minimum of 40% analyzed gain from current 100% cost vs.ue.

    Gross income
    – capital conversion/ life of plant per year
    – maintenance cost of new plant versus original maintenance cost.
    – operational cost origional operator staff and fuel cost versus new ops staff fuel costs.

    Expected(Pool) income (Corsi)
    Less expected costs (HD affect)
    Expected net income ( expected GA)
    This has to show a 40% reduction in soft analysis.

    Annual Pool income accrued (Corsix,y)
    – minus annual capital cost (blocks)
    – minus annual maintenance cost ( misses)
    – minus annual fuel cost ( closed shots)
    = Annual fixed income (open shot x,y) (Dpair established expected save%)
    – annual operation cost ( goalies +/- save% performance)
    Net income (true GA)
    As an example
    These were set up to have cost mechanism and potentials to match def measure mechanisms.

    HD measure:
    Corsix,y to expected GA (xGA) 85% accurate.
    Is really a Def triangle analysis. (2D – 1G)
    But can be separated by sides xGA and goalie general save % to each side.

    Combined HD/0% Corsi measures.
    Corsi to openshot x,y (Dpair established save % to each side) 95% accurate

    Expected save%. – goalie save% performance ( close to 100% measure)
    Goalie def measure.

    Defensive triangle should be differentiated (broken down) by 3 potential structures.
    (2D – 1G)
    (1rover – 1D – 1G)
    (1 fwd – 1D – 1G)
    With dmen ending up with 3 potential positions.
    The resulting expected save% and Real goalie save% performance.

    The process:
    1. Explain HD density shot theory. (Corsix,y – shotx,y)
    The goal diff tree sub theories.
    Resultant d and goalie

    2. Explain Table hockey goalie/Open Corsi theories
    open shot= corsi – (blocks+misses+closed shots)
    The goal diff sub tree theories
    Identifies the elite 0% corsi reduction and Elite Open Save % goalies.

    3. Combine the 2 defensive affects
    Open shotx,y = Corsix,y – (blocks+misses+closed shots)x,y
    Creates a true open shot (greater than .1% chance) shot chart
    identifies true Elite combined (HD/Opensh) Dmen (Larrson)
    Identifies true Elite combined (HD/Opensh) goalies

    4. Introduces 3 true HD def triangle structures.
    (2D – 1G)
    (1rover – 1D – 1G) Offensive Dmen are offensive
    (#4fwd – 1D – 1G) Offensive Dmen are really Forwards. (New)
    Depth of OZ penetration
    And return time to 2D structure differentiates the 3.

    Congratulations to those who graduated to step three in the learning process.

    Step 4 takes us to position identification by % of structure occupied and introduces the final group of theories in defensive measure.

    It will be interesting to See our pocession structure at point of turnover (Failure) what dmen are not truly dmen?

    Annual pool income accrued
    – Capital costs
    does not tell us much.

  141. Wilde says:

    The amount of time that the broadcast is showing highlights/random stuff during a faceoff and the first 10 seconds thereafter is so, so irritating.

    Let’s show a closeup of a meaningless pass, or peer up the nostrils of some guy on the bench before he spits straight in the direction of the camera instead of showing who wins an in-zone faceoff and what they do with it.

    Might just start grabbing endzone/multi cam feeds and using those. This is getting ridiculous.

  142. N64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s exactly why I’m Woodguy v2.0.

    My original account can log in, can post, but the posts never show up

    And I thought Woodguy and Woodguy 2.0 was just being ambidextrous. When you argued with yourself here… now that was confusing. You never can remember which hand is which.

  143. Melvis says:

    Wilde:
    The amount of time that the broadcast is showing highlights/random stuff during a faceoff and the first 10 seconds thereafter is so, so irritating.

    Let’s show a closeup of a meaningless pass, or peer up the nostrils of some guy on the bench before he spits straight in the direction of the camera instead of showing who wins an in-zone faceoff and what they do with it.

    Might just start grabbing endzone/multi cam feeds and using those. This is getting ridiculous.

    Hockey, unfortunately, pictures more poorly from a broadcast standpoint than any other competitive team or one on one sport. And the only way to get it right are some tracking overhead cams for the full 60 minutes.

    And even that fails to reveal everything.

    It’s a bit like having four people at four corners witnessing a car accident. They all differ in pov. Someone on a balcony overhead might see it differently. And some a block earlier witnessed a car jinking around, while speeding and slowing. Some querolous old man gesticulating and swearing at something.

    Thing is, no one saw a couple of wasps crawl out of the air vents of an old car that sat unattended in a driveway over the previous month. No one saw multiple stings resulting in a heart attack in the making.

    Three dead and the resulting autopsy didn’t conclude anything more than cause of death. Heart attack.

    Admittedly. I’m stretching it a bit. But then Atco screwup =yada yada…and I went over that about four times. I’ll keep it in mind the next time I’m watching a game and Talbot screws the pooch on a first shot floater from 30 feet out.

  144. Melvis says:

    N64: My original account can log in, can post, but the posts never show up

    There’s something to be said for that. Mutual clap clap.

  145. Professor Q says:

    N64: And I thought Woodguy and Woodguy 2.0 was just being ambidextrous. When you argued with yourself here… now that was confusing. You never can remember which hand is which.

    Whichever one gains the upper hand in that moment, of course.

  146. rickithebear says:

    Now started process for stem cell transplant.
    Targeted for mid sept/begin October start-up.
    Most are more elderly patients with empty nest.
    Highest risk is when Emune system completely distorted by Chemo.
    3-4 weeks for stems to take and emune system to start improving.

    Most normally go home after a month.

    Based on hospitalized illness history
    Consult recommends 2 bed apt.
    With caregiver family member.
    4 months away from my 2 primary school disease transmitters
    Daily immune checks instead of checks every 2 days recommended.
    Mobile lab tech cost covered by Atco.

  147. Melvis says:

    I’ve now seen just about everything taken into account. With the exception of butt crack itch. It’s an important element, but essentially unquantifiable.

  148. Lowetide says:

    rickithebear:
    Now started process for stem cell transplant.
    Targeted for mid sept/begin October start-up.
    Most are more elderly patients with empty nest.
    Highest risk is when Emune system completely distorted by Chemo.
    3-4 weeks for stems to take and emune system to start improving.

    Most normally go home after a month.

    Based on hospitalized illness history
    Consult recommends 2 bed apt.
    With caregiver family member.
    4 months away from my 2 primary school disease transmitters
    Daily immune checks instead of checks every 2 days recommended.
    Mobile lab tech cost covered by Atco.

    Godspeed , Ricki.

  149. Melvis says:

    rickithebear: Mobile lab tech cost covered by Atco.

    I think that’s great really. And good luck with that most dreaded of diseases Riki. I’m far more empathetic than the sarc indicates. My mom is a cancer survivor. And I’ve lost a couple of really close friends to breast cancer.

    You, of course, are in my “remover of difficulties” prayers. Those of which I’m capable sitting on the fence between belief and cynicism.

  150. Melvis says:

    What am listening to? I love eccentrics!

    Life’s Too Short

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkC4tYCNG4s&list=PLPOME9uZhXzFyfROfCiHtv4FeVYqD_fze

  151. unca miltie says:

    all the best for you during this trying time Ricki

  152. maudite says:

    I like this. When oil cratered and that whim I just had to burn a consulting gig I was permanent pen in on to chase overseas type stuff so I was left in lurch:

    I took one swing down to Calgary realized it was a zombie land…said screw it and worked a million odd jobs. Whatever.

    I happened to be in Yukon/Alaska trying slyicing/gold mine equipment operator zero resumes out and people hearing about me randomly through odd places like fiance of daughter who is casual friends of parents or whatever started handing cards to other people saying that i should get a hold of them if i wanted instructor jobs or whatever.

    Out of blue living in my van in southern bc debating picking at a garlic farm or harvesting weed with friends type stuff another left field phone call for back on the cash boat oil jobs reached out…i pushed it back until I was near busted and accepted I probably should go back to wearing adult pants and ooof all is well….everywgere I went in that van even like odd grocery stores in little towns people kept just wanting me to work if I wanted. The minute I decided fuck it and just started doing stuff instead of dreading my fate everything just started slowly but surely opening up.

    Jethro Tull: I have been on numerous hiring committees.One thing that always stands out is if someone has stayed stagnant – ie: Waiting for the perfect job.

    There’s three possibilities:

    1) Right job at the right time
    2) Wrong job at the right time
    3) Right job at the wrong time

    #1 is what you’re aiming for, but if you’re sat across from us and (I’ve heard this more than once) say “I haven’t been working because there’s nothing out there”, then I have to say that’s a big turn off for many recruiters.We realize that you want a job doing what you worked so hard for.But that doesn’t mean you should have done nothing up until then.

    If you’re having trouble finding employment in your field of expertise, we’d rather hear “I took a job at Wal-Mart to keep the bills paid, but I’m also gaining different perspectives in team-work, time managment, etc.”Something positive that shows that you don’t let the grass grow under your feet, and it’s all about the spin on what can carry over and be a benefit to your prospective employer.

    Unlike one of my distant relatives who was laid off for two years and “could only go back to a management position.”He was 35yo. and a welder by trade.His partner had the patience of a saint, especially when his EI ran out and she was struggling to support the family on her wage alone.He was offered jobs back on the tools.

    Get yourself out there, stay positive, and who knows, maybe you find you enjoy doing something you may not have contemplated before!

  153. Melvis says:

    And I’m a Philly and other soul fanatic. Cee Lo Green and Darryl. There’s a lot of good studff from his house.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yxoob6aPtk&list=PLPOME9uZhXzFyfROfCiHtv4FeVYqD_fze&index=4&frags=pl%2Cwn

  154. Scungilli Slushy says:

    rickithebear:
    Now started process for stem cell transplant.
    Targeted for mid sept/begin October start-up.
    Most are more elderly patients with empty nest.
    Highest risk is when Emune system completely distorted by Chemo.
    3-4 weeks for stems to take and emune system to start improving.

    Most normally go home after a month.

    Based on hospitalized illness history
    Consult recommends 2 bed apt.
    With caregiver family member.
    4 months away from my 2 primary school disease transmitters
    Daily immune checks instead of checks every 2 days recommended.
    Mobile lab tech cost covered by Atco.

    My thoughts and hope are with you Ricki

  155. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Melvis:
    I’ve now seen just about everything taken into account. With the exception of butt crack itch. It’s an important element, but essentially unquantifiable.

    It’s why you have to pull your pants up, airborne bacteria. Fashion is not a good reason for it, IMO. Far too irritating.

  156. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, agreed, which is why the post your responded to had the following:

    “A key to the season for me is Matt Benning and his ability to take that 2RD spot and run with it – if he can do that and Russell can truly play 3rd pairing at evens, I like the overall look of the defence.”

    LOL
    I know you are in the habit of repeating yourself OP. But this post is overkill.

  157. jp says:

    russ99: I think it’s twofold, the coach’s trust in Russell and distrust in Benning.

    I know CF carries a ton of weight around here, but please bear with me, what else is there that proves Benning is a better option that Russell?Because what I saw on the ice from Benning when we didn’t have the puck wasn’t good, and I watched all 82.

    Hmmmm…. How about actual +/- and 5X5 goal differential two years in a row?

  158. Melvis says:

    Rundgren throws Hall that little grin around 1:40. If you’ve never played in a band, that’s what it’s all about. There’s a book in there somewhere.

  159. Professor Q says:

    Scungilli Slushy: It’s why you have to pull your pants up, airborne bacteria. Fashion is not a good reason for it, IMO. Far too irritating.

    As long as you pull your pants up by your boot strings, as the moral of the story goes.

  160. Professor Q says:

    Melvis:
    Rundgren throws Hall that little grin around 1:40. If you’ve never played in a band, that’s what it’s all about. There’s a book in there somewhere.

    Have you heard the Chromeo version?

    They are one of my favourite Canadian groups (at least based on their early works, as I wasn’t a fan of White Women and haven’t heard their newest album).

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WOE1-2Fza5Q

    I think Hall really enjoyed this one.

  161. Melvis says:

    Professor Q,

    Checkin it out.

  162. Melvis says:

    Melvis,

    I was working for Marc Gordon Prods at one time as the in house road manager. This one had me ferreting Al Wilson around the US on the back of his No 1 hit Show and Tell. He fronted the O’Jays and the Temptations on various dates. I’m a bit distracted…

    I Love Music

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIROc9l_0IU&frags=pl%2Cwn

  163. Pescador says:

    jp: Hmmmm…. How about actual +/- and 5X5 goal differential two years in a row?

    Which is…..?

  164. Melvis says:

    To be fair. It’s probably difficult quantifying data over raising the cup over one’s head five times. Despite all the the daily bitching. You had to be there. It leads to a dependency on historical emotional factors. Hard to overcome in the light of day. It’s akin to applying math to “soulstruck”.

    Nobody has ever cooked up a a definition for what might constitute art. And there’s an inherent art to the game that defies description.

  165. maudite says:

    Lee C Fields?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3rIA-BCZ0E

    Melvis:
    Melvis,

    I was working for Marc Gordon Prods at one time as the in house road manager. This one had me ferreting Al Wilson around the US on the back of his No 1 hit Show and Tell. He fronted the O’Jays and the Temptations on various dates. I’m a bit distracted…

    I Love Music

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIROc9l_0IU&frags=pl%2Cwn

  166. VOR says:

    rickithebear:
    When Atco built the 2 units at sheerness.
    The screwed the process as bad as possible.
    Pre 1 year lawsuit with major contractor.
    6 lawsuits against major contractors on failed systems
    With test reports indicated handed by lead Atco engineers.
    Years later found by me miss filled and all failed tests not meeting requirements.
    5 failed delivery by sub contractors approved subs.

    From that Atco set up a standard based on worst run progect.

    Must achieve a minimum of 40% analyzed gain from current 100% cost vs.ue.

    Gross income
    – capital conversion/ life of plant per year
    – maintenance cost of new plant versus original maintenance cost.
    – operational cost origional operator staff and fuel cost versus new ops staff fuel costs.

    Expected(Pool) income (Corsi)
    Less expected costs (HD affect)
    Expected net income ( expected GA)
    This has to show a 40% reduction in soft analysis.

    Annual Pool income accrued (Corsix,y)
    – minus annual capital cost (blocks)
    – minus annual maintenance cost ( misses)
    – minus annual fuel cost ( closed shots)
    = Annual fixed income (open shot x,y) (Dpair established expected save%)
    – annual operation cost ( goalies +/- save% performance)
    Net income (true GA)
    As an example
    These were set up to have cost mechanism and potentials to match def measure mechanisms.

    HD measure:
    Corsix,y to expected GA (xGA) 85% accurate.
    Is really a Def triangle analysis. (2D – 1G)
    But can be separated by sides xGA and goalie general save % to each side.

    Combined HD/0% Corsi measures.
    Corsi to openshot x,y (Dpair established save % to each side) 95% accurate

    Expected save%. – goalie save% performance ( close to 100% measure)
    Goalie def measure.

    Defensive triangle should be differentiated (broken down) by 3 potential structures.
    (2D – 1G)
    (1rover – 1D – 1G)
    (1 fwd – 1D – 1G)
    With dmen ending up with 3 potential positions.
    The resulting expected save% and Real goalie save% performance.

    The process:
    1. Explain HD density shot theory. (Corsix,y – shotx,y)
    The goal diff tree sub theories.
    Resultant d and goalie

    2. Explain Table hockey goalie/Open Corsi theories
    open shot= corsi – (blocks+misses+closed shots)
    The goal diff sub tree theories
    Identifies the elite 0% corsi reduction and Elite Open Save % goalies.

    3. Combine the 2 defensive affects
    Open shotx,y = Corsix,y – (blocks+misses+closed shots)x,y
    Creates a true open shot (greater than .1% chance) shot chart
    identifies true Elite combined (HD/Opensh) Dmen(Larrson)
    Identifies true Elite combined (HD/Opensh) goalies

    4. Introduces 3 true HD def triangle structures.
    (2D – 1G)
    (1rover – 1D – 1G) Offensive Dmen are offensive
    (#4fwd – 1D – 1G) Offensive Dmen are really Forwards. (New)
    Depth of OZ penetration
    And return time to 2D structure differentiates the 3.

    Congratulations to those who graduated to step three in the learning process.

    Step 4 takes us to position identification by % of structure occupied and introduces the final group of theories in defensive measure.

    It will be interesting to See our pocession structure at point of turnover (Failure) what dmen are not truly dmen?

    Annual pool income accrued
    – Capital costs
    does not tell us much.

    Each step in your theory is conceptually flawed. Worse you have chosen a modelling approach that will provide nothing of value. Failure in a dynamic system is a process not a moment. You can’t chose a time X or an event Y to freeze the system and getting anything but garbage.

    I am trying to make sure that if you insist on wasting valuable moments of your cancer treatment on hockey analytics you apply enough intellectual rigour to make the investment of time worthwhile. If nobody takes the time to understand your musings and to correct the obvious logical flaws then you can’t improve your thinking and create a robust fully developed theory. You clearly need a peer to review your work given there hasn’t been any advancement in your thinking in the years I have been reading you. While you have never provided any data you have said enough about the model for me to realize it is irretrievably flawed. So I will limit my review to that.

    Let’s start with the fact your model is way too simplistic. Nowhere in it have you made any allowance for game theory. There are two teams on the ice during a hockey game. Hockey being the fastest game on earth great defence is about coming up with a useful response to what the team on offence is doing. Yet you’ve built a model that makes no allowance for what the offence is doing. Beyond shot origination you are black boxing the offence rendering any comment you make about defence meaningless.

    The best defence is a strong offence and that is nowhere in your model either. In fact you’ve made it abundantly clear you think only GA matter. Why ignore half the game? You talk about deltas but ignore half the formula. It is GF-GA = GD.

    Additionally, by the time a player has the puck in your box the defence has already messed up in a lot of different ways. None of which are in your model. Where is the analysis of how good a job the forwards do of covering for a pinching D. And that is one of dozens of examples.

    Now I could go on and on pointing out the flaws in your model but I want to see the corrections and refinements I’ve suggested implemented before I bother.

  167. Melvis says:

    maudite,

    In a way. I can only say there aren’t too many white Canadian boys from the prairies that spent any time in some lowdown hole ambitiously called a club, in South La – and got away with it. And perhaps the better for it – spending that time on wrong side of the tracks. The experiences enhance one’s perspective…like collared greens and chitlins. I was young and stupid. Which might explain getting away with it.

    Mark Gordon. There’s more than one. Mark was a VP with Motown and Barry Gordy. He ran west coast until Gordy moved the ops out there, thus making his position redundant He then went off on his own as a talent manager. The stable included the Staples, Marilyn McCoo and Billy Davis from the Fifth Dimension, Tony Orlando and Dawn , Al Wison, and others. The MOR acts certainly weren’t my favorite at the time, but it was a decent gig in terms of paying the rent. And Tony Orlando ended up with a no.1 tv show at the time. This gave me an incredible view behind the scenes of what passed for network tv at the time.

  168. rickithebear says:

    Now the fan:
    Have always wanted to own fitted hats for my favourite teams.
    Lids has clearance prices on hats.
    With some selected hats another 40% off.

    My wife thought it was a great idea

    Oilers since 94 my 2nd & 3rd hats
    https://www.lids.ca/edmonton-oilers-adidas-nhl-structured-flex-cap/20969770

    https://www.lids.ca/edmonton-oilers-ccm-nhl-ccm-structured-flex-cap/20935498
    $11.34

    Detroit lions
    https://www.lids.ca/detroit-lions-new-era-nfl-camo-two-tone-9fifty-snapback-cap/20854425

    My 2nd riders hat:
    https://www.lids.ca/saskatchewan-roughriders-new-era-cfl-mega-team-neo-39thirty-cap/20969380
    Darker green version with upper half of front decal across the fitted back. $12.00

    My Favourite historical video team.
    https://www.lids.ca/brooklyn-dodgers-47-mlb-47-holbrook-cap/20900871

    My wife thought I should get a blue jays hat: (Expo Guy)
    https://www.lids.ca/toronto-blue-jays-47-mlb-black-on-black-clean-up-cap/20968257
    It is tonal pop navy on navy clean up cap withe white border around the jay.

    My 10 yea old son ordered a cubs hat:
    https://www.lids.com/chicago-cubs-47-mlb-47-wayside-cap/20900851

    We picked them up Tuesday my son liked a whole bunch of blue jays hats.
    We went to the car and gave him my blue jays hat.

    During my consult was told all or most of my hair will not return.
    I will need hats I said.

    Then I showed my wife LT,s blog on pennants.
    LT: Pennets was a game change for me. 2 championship teams, 28 losers.
    Wife agreed.
    Said cannot wear any hats from direct competition teams
    NHL Western Conference
    MLB American League
    NFL National Football Conference
    CFL none
    NBA went into history of bad boys
    – Jordon playoffs versus BB 10w – 12L .445%
    – Birds playoff record versus BB 8W – 14L .346%
    – Rodman said they will not let me defend him. Birds playoff record after 4W – 11L .267
    – Manic Johnson’s playoff record versus BB 4W – 5L .444%
    Thomas, Lambier, Mahorn, Rodman. Nasty!

    Thanks LT for today:
    Teams I cheered for before oilers.
    To 78-79 age 5-14yr
    https://www.lids.ca/montreal-canadiens-ccm-ccm-nhl-m892z-structured-flex-cap/20940834 $11.34

    79-80 to 94-95
    Nordiques ccm light blue/navy blue mesh mfg embroidery puck error. $11.34
    Fits the demise!

    Oilers 4th hat:
    https://www.lids.ca/edmonton-oilers-ccm-ccm-nhl-m892z-structured-flex-cap/20940842 $11.34

    Fan of 50 year old Gordie:
    https://www.lids.ca/detroit-red-wings-47-nhl-curved-47-mvp/20717510 $11.34

    Just love the colours:
    https://www.lids.ca/new-york-islanders-zephyr-nhl-staple-adjustable-hat/20788627

    My oldest in New Brunswick for a year
    Cause he does not think He can handle
    The process of clean
    Dealing with angst of dad sick.

    4 months
    No primary school kids
    Blood draws
    Surgical masks
    Showers
    No hair
    Nausea.
    Pain

    NHL Center ice
    NFL
    My hats
    4 months of Athletic.
    Lowetide baby!

    Thanks LT:
    Funny what things that you know will get you bye in the fight to
    Be there for my kids for more than 2-3 years.

    LT: what is your Favourite NFL team?

  169. Richard S.S. says:

    The D will be
    Klefbom and Larson
    …………. and Benning
    Sekera and Bouchard
    ………….
    Matthew Benning, Kris Russell, Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard will rotate each game with three playing and 1 sitting until Bouchard gets his nine or a decision is made on his future.

  170. rickithebear says:

    VOR: Each step in your theory is conceptually flawed. Worse you have chosen a modelling approach that will provide nothing of value. Failure in a dynamic system is a process not a moment. You can’t chose a time X or an event Y to freeze the system and getting anything but garbage.

    I am trying to make sure that if you insist on wasting valuable moments of your cancer treatment on hockey analytics you apply enough intellectual rigour to make the investment of time worthwhile. If nobody takes the time to understand your musings and to correct the obvious logical flaws then you can’t improve your thinking and create a robust fully developed theory. You clearly need a peer to review your work given there hasn’t been any advancement in your thinking in the years I have been reading you. While you have never provided any data you have said enough about the model for me to realize it is irretrievably flawed. So I will limit my review to that.

    Let’s start with the fact your model is way too simplistic. Nowhere in it have you made any allowance for game theory. There are two teams on the ice during a hockey game. Hockey being the fastest game on earth great defence is about coming up with a useful response to what the team on offence is doing. Yet you’ve built a model that makes no allowance for what the offence is doing. Beyond shot origination you are black boxing the offence rendering any comment you make about defence meaningless.

    The best defence is a strong offence and that is nowhere in your model either. In fact you’ve made it abundantly clear you think only GA matter. Why ignore half the game? You talk about deltas but ignore half the formula. It is GF-GA = GD.

    Additionally, by the time a player has the puck in your box the defence has already messed up in a lot of different ways. None of which are in your model. Where is the analysis of how good a job the forwards do of covering for a pinching D. And that is one of dozens of examples.

    Now I could go on and on pointing out the flaws in your model but I want to see the corrections and refinements I’ve suggested implemented before I bother.

    Forward coverage is in Goal diff modelling.
    Goals for models is part of goal diff success map.
    And part of idiotic
    PDO.
    Shooting % is not repeatable.
    Thier are multitude of affected mechanical actions that lead to counter attack starting points.
    Or
    Successful Defence.

    Watch how much of the disorganization is driven by decisions (coach theory) in play.

    I Stated on one of my posts here that sports logics computer break down of video and future puck movement tracking will take analytics in the area more complex than my base analysis. In an area our are likley working towards.

    But those are individualized detailed moments that need to be partnered with video review.

    minute % measures are looked at after
    1. identified large ratio mechanism flaws 5:1; 4-1; 3-1; 2-1; 1.5-1
    2. High success routes (game theory decisions) in Goal diff success tree.
    3. Flawed player mechanics that yield negative results ( video identified and coached out.)
    4. A poor decision can be negative without being a pocession change in the route tree.
    It paths to failure and usually is the point of largest % drop,in avroute tree path.
    All baselines avg to compare against

    But when 5 of the leading theoretical failure modellers are now large % baseline failure analytics.
    What they call baseline Emperical approach.
    They and I say you have to identify Practical high success simplified industrial mechanics solutions that will give you the best return on the dollar.

    You kind have to identify the baseline ratios in analytical aproach first.
    It defines what % point in game theory equates to 1 goal diff and what is line in sand for that success for the cheapest cap cost.

    Dman in pocession of the puck is not the key offensive driver of even offence.
    Even goal success from the 27-300 player in most forward point.
    4 times more effective.

    running a neutral zone trap is critical to Entry results.

    Getting the correct skilled players on for pocession and non pocession bench change.
    A major complaint of current coaching.

    Who takes Face offs were.
    Huge factor in CF and CA numbers.

    These are critical game theory decisions.
    With the largest affect on the game.
    Then you get them at lowest cost possible.

    Player actions with highest failure affects are what you look at.

  171. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    The D will be
    Klefbom and Larson
    …………. and Benning
    Sekera and Bouchard
    ………….
    Matthew Benning, Kris Russell, Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard will rotate each game with three playing and 1 sitting until Bouchard gets his nine or a decision is made on his future.

    I don’t see this happening at all. I don’t see Darnell Nurse being a healthy scratch at all.

    He was 5th in the NHL in ES TOI/G last year and, while i can see his over TOI reduce a bit this coming year, not by sitting in the press box.

  172. jp says:

    Pescador:
    Which is…..?

    “I know CF carries a ton of weight around here, but please bear with me, what else is there that proves Benning is a better option that Russell?”

    Not just CF, also goals.

  173. russ99 says:

    jp: “I know CF carries a ton of weight around here, but please bear with me, what else is there that proves Benning is a better option that Russell?”

    Not just CF, also goals.

    Again, ignoring the weak side of Benning’s game.

    Maybe if we’re more responsible in the back and don’t give up so many open looks, odd man breaks and mismatches, then Talbot won’t lose his confidence this year, which is the real key to the season, not extrapolating shot metrics and wishful thinking for Benning.

  174. jp says:

    russ99: Again, ignoring the weak side of Benning’s game.

    Maybe if we’re more responsible in the back and don’t give up so many open looks, odd man breaks and mismatches, then Talbot won’t lose his confidence this year, which is the real key to the season, not extrapolating shot metrics and wishful thinking for Benning.

    But your eyes are fooling you, I think.

    You asked what is there to recommend Benning aside from CF. Well the answer is also shots, goals, +/-, DFF% vs elites (which measures shot quality), among others.

    The ‘weak’ side of Benning’s game results very similar shot against numbers to Russell. The stronger part of Benning’s game (or the weaker part of Russell’s) results in 3 fewer shots for/60 for his teammates.

    You don’t have to agree, but there’s a lot more than extrapolated shot metrics to recommend Benning.

  175. Lowetide says:

    Melvis:
    Melvis,

    I was working for Marc Gordon Prods at one time as the in house road manager. This one had me ferreting Al Wilson around the US on the back of his No 1 hit Show and Tell. He fronted the O’Jays and the Temptations on various dates. I’m a bit distracted…

    I Love Music

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIROc9l_0IU&frags=pl%2Cwn

    That’s all my stuff there LOVE the O’Jays.

  176. VanIsleOil says:

    I haven’t been able to open any links in here for some time now?? Anything I can do to rectify this?

  177. VOR says:

    rickithebear: You kind have to identify the baseline ratios in analytical aproach first.
    It defines what % point in game theory equates to 1 goal diff and what is line in sand for that success for the cheapest cap cost.
    Dman in pocession of the puck is not the key offensive driver of even offence.
    Even goal success from the 27-300 player in most forward point.
    4 times more effective.
    running a neutral zone trap is critical to Entry results.
    Getting the correct skilled players on for pocession and non pocession bench change.
    A major complaint of current coaching.
    Who takes Face offs were.
    Huge factor in CF and CA numbers.
    These are critical game theory decisions.
    With the largest affect on the game.
    Then you get them at lowest cost possible.
    Player actions with highest failure affects are what you look at.

    1. You haven’t proven failure modelling is the correct modelling tool. It isn’t. Your worst sin is not explaining what failure modelling is to a lay audience. For those of you reading along it is used in engineering to determine things like how long a plane can be in service flying around the world before it falls apart. It has been completely discredited for dealing with human failure in that reductionist failure approaches like Ricki insists on proposing increase the risk of human failure.

    2. I wasn’t aware I had a kind. Please explain to what kind I am.

    3. Your approach suffers from a dangerous degree of reductionism. Have you never heard the expression “can’t see the forest for the trees.”

    4. You really need to learn some game theory since you are wildly misusing the term here.

    5. How do you know which players to put on the ice in any situation? You are proposing responding to a decision of your opponent but your model says the behaviour of opponents isn’t important. Here is one of the biggest weaknesses of your model, it is useless in the real world.

    6. You haven’t proven Corsi is useful in measuring dmen. I am on record as saying it isn’t. Back in the day I even offered proof. So when you prattle on about Corsi I just see it as another weakness in your theory.

    7. Personally I am a fan of E.F. Schumacher. As a coal guy you’ve surely read him. The correct question is does the benefit (net positive effect) out weigh the cost (net negative effect). But like I said since your model does not consider anything but failure it will inevitably give garbage outputs even if you can solve all the methodological problems at the input end.

  178. deardylan says:

    Kinger, Sheps and Jethro. Really appreciate you reaching out to me and for your support during the Toronto job search.

    Yes would be great to connect with you and even better to meet you for a coffee. Can you send me a quick hi at deardylan at gmail dot com or let me know the best way to get ahold of you. Thanks.

    Rickithebear- hope this forum gives you lots of inspiration to keep on keeping on and adding to your life’s work. My thoughts and prayer just sent your way.

  179. Jethro Tull says:

    VOR: 2. I wasn’t aware I had a kind. Please explain to what kind I am.

    Maybe the missing word is ‘of’ after ‘kind’?

  180. jp says:

    russ99: Again, ignoring the weak side of Benning’s game.

    Maybe if we’re more responsible in the back and don’t give up so many open looks, odd man breaks and mismatches, then Talbot won’t lose his confidence this year, which is the real key to the season, not extrapolating shot metrics and wishful thinking for Benning.

    To follow up now that I can easily access the SF/SA GF/GA breakdowns (per 60):

    2016-17 SF SA GF GA
    Russell 27.2 27.5 2.0 1.7
    Benning 30.0 27.6 2.7 2.1

    2017-18
    Russell 30.0 31.7 2.2 2.7
    Benning 33.0 31.9 2.7 2.5

    Virtually the same number of shots and goals against when Benning and Russell are on the ice. But 3 more shots for and a half goal more per 60 with Benning.

    Either all the extra open looks, odd man breaks and mismatches aren’t being converted when Benning is on the ice, or Russell is doing other things that are hurting the team at both ends of the ice.

  181. VOR says:

    Jethro Tull: Maybe the missing word is ‘of’ after ‘kind’?

    I expect you are right. But he doesn’t much care for mushy qualifiers like kind of have to.

    It was why I originally left out me. I have since put it back and taken it out again. It’s a science is meant to amuse Ricki and I assume he needs some laughs these days.

  182. Jethro Tull says:

    VOR: I expect you are right. But he doesn’t much care for mushy qualifiers like kind of have to.

    It was why I originally left out me. I have since put it back and taken it out again. It’s a science is meant to amuse Ricki and I assume he needs some laughs these days.

    Mushy qualifiers are my favourite kind of mushy after peas.

  183. Professor Q says:

    Jethro Tull: Mushy qualifiers are my favourite kind of mushy after peas.

    As long as you mind your peas and queues.

  184. rickithebear says:

    Game Theory was born of the simplified start to the field of study and further including more specialized theory of advancement.
    So you end up with tiers of more complex specialization in all theory study.

    I have said many times that you start with win mechanism of winning.
    GF and GA.

    Step 2 look back on real history. 20 – 25 years of playoffs and regular seasons.
    The final goal is winning a cup.
    Looking at the progression a higher % of non top 16 teams in GA make the playoffs than non top 16 GF teams.
    Non GA repetitively superior in succes than GF all the way to the Final 4.
    I posted the % for each round on another post.
    This is game theory.

    After the final 4 is when we see religion of portions of the cup core theory.
    The final 2 mostbrepresentative of the Cup cores.
    It is at the Final 2 we have seen clear standards for success.
    A top 5 GA team can win a cup as a bottom 5 GF team.
    A top 5 GF team could not win a cup with anything less than top 15 GA
    Until a slightly better than bottom 12 GA team won.

    Not the cultural game study which was a major function of diplomacy
    A game I played from the age of 5.
    With zero random influence.
    The cultural negotiation aspect.

    The game theory you know is based on accepted theories that challenge each other but believe in defined common path to success that is built on each other.
    Some believing path to end as only test.
    Some believing in Bindirectional equality.

    In extreme dynamic play.
    Thier is non singular paths but a series of defined binary event mechanism.
    That can revdirect youn to any point on a series of success or failure singular paths on a route tree.
    That is were you create maps of binary result events of success or failure %.

    Having completed 2 years of public admin at Univ of Sask under the commerse core at age16-17.
    I developed my initial disdain for stacked path analysis that does not accurately relate.

    I have memorized 128000 pieces of equipment in each unit
    read all thier manuals.
    Reviewed all thier operational logics which are a collection mechanism redirection.
    Based on and/or/nor
    Reviewed the SOE maps.
    These capture the dynamics of the systems.
    You identify the high failure potential in logics in SOE.

    This is my aproach to hockey.
    GF SOE map
    GA SOE map.
    Thier is a causation affect
    GA action on GF potential (Stoping Offensive attack)
    GF action on GA potential (forcing Break down of def system)

    I identified the high ratio parts In hockey.
    Hd:Ld ratio 5:1 500% to 100%
    Fwd Even production:Dman even production ratio 4:1
    Continue looking at the next highest ratio action.
    Continuing to some point were we are dealing with what I Call Table scrap affects. Miniscule % variances.

    CA is number born from Off failure.
    The only time dmen can influence entry and CA is if a proper NZ trap is run.
    Which is a critical ratio born from forward failure of success.
    So CA is largely a measure of Forwards GF mechanism
    3 forwards
    3 forwards + 1 rover
    4 forwards
    Which affects HD performance GA affect.

    At some point there is still levels of measurability in analysis
    But the goal diff reward in game win terms is not there.
    Table scraps.

    I accept your perspective.

    But the engineer aproach you discuss is an archaic point of view.
    RCM based analysis. Is machine based maintenance anslysis.
    With equipment availability point of view.

    I work with Michael Obition.
    The guy who developed most of Boeing’s RCM intro to the engineering field.
    The same man who had a son in the Montreal amateur hockey
    and built the current standard of hockey stats page for Montreal regions amateur hockey.
    I he saw a clear difference between RCM and human factor failure.
    I convinced him to include human factor failure into his existing boiler failure databases and thier relation. Once they were enttered a series of human factor red flagging lit up.
    Knew we had nailed something.

    Emperical practical large factor analysis is the modern aproach.
    Engineering of high acting.
    Reduction of High acting failure.
    Introduction of high acting success.

    Alarm mgmt.
    Heat balance
    Caloric introduction
    Operator board SOE performance.
    Human aperformance.
    Introduction of design, msintsinence, operation failure
    review and avoidance of the high failure actions

    So your old understanding does not know of a practical
    Emperical aproach I followed that matches the game of hockey.

    Thanks for your criticism.

    Theory, SOE, Technical contracts, engineer summaries.
    Commissioning reports. Operation logic, Maintanence manuals ….
    1000 – 1500 pages a day.

    Reading the wiki summery of game theory and game study plus the highlighted links to other theories was a quick and enjoyable read.

    How long (yrs/decades) have you been at this level of field.

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