Chasing Shadows, Moonlight Mystery

I’m a big believer in risk averse drafting but the key is getting the right definition. People often say (I do it all the time) “just print off the Bob McKenzie list and take best number available” but the truth is a little more nuanced. Shades of grey abound. (Cover photo: Rob Ferguson).

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

The Vesel and Marino posts are just the beginning, both men doing good things this past winter. If you haven’t checked in with either player for a time, there has been real progress.

SPITTING CHICLETS

  • Milan Lucic: For me it’s just mentally having fun going to the rink again and mentally looking forward to the challenges we face as a team and as an athlete every single day where I think my mindset got very negative last year. So I was almost my own worst enemy where this year I’m going in with a happy healthier mindset and I think that’ll help me get back to the player I am and I think when you’re playing with the best player in the world it gives you a vote of confidence to try and step up and not let him down.I think we’re all feeling that and we all had fun in the 2016/17 season so we want to get back to being that team and winning on a nightly basis.

This is via Spittin’ Chiclets podcast via Original Pouzar via Beer League Heroes. In the interview (OP posted it at the end of yesterday’s post comments section) Lucic mentioned the darkness of winter is a difficult thing to overcome.

I have some experience with this, Mrs. Lowetide has had some issues (mostly in the past) surrounding early sunsets. There’s a name for it, can never remember, but the first winter we went through it was Regina, maybe 1984. I tried everything to get her out of the funk and it didn’t take. I bought her jewellery, we took a trip to Mexico, she finally started running after work (before the sun went down) and that seemed to help. It’s a thing, kind of like depression.

As for Lucic, it sounds like he’s in a good space and looking forward to the season. In a way, he’s a rookie again, with a lot to prove. I’ll be cheering like hell for him.

DRAFTING THE MCKENZIE LIST, 2011

This is the 2011 entry draft, I used it to show a specific example of what might have changed for the Oilers at the draft table. These numbers are correct save for the “HM” beside Travis Ewanyk, I am sure he was an honorable mention but it isn’t in my archive so there’s some question there.

The Oilers drafted in tune with Red Line Report, Samu Perhonen the only reach on their list. The McKenzie list shows Musil as a reach, and the rest of the group through No. 114 to be anything from a minor to major reach. The current Oilers drafting more risk averse, but does the team have the formula right? Let’s first have a look at this year’s drafting.

The first three selections are risk averse, the only dissenting vote coming from Corey Pronman on the Bouchard selection. My question is this, and I ask it in the hope this looks foolish five years from now: Are the Edmonton Oilers punishing lack of speed enough at the draft?

In the summer of 2016, in an item called A turn north at the draft table? I listed my priorities for a successful draft:

  • Value skill above all other things.
  • Let math do the work. Travis Ewanyk was a long shot the moment he was selected, the Oilers have been better in the last two drafted in this area. I also thought 2013 lined up pretty well with math, but the 2014 effort has me wondering if the organization is capable of a repeat performance.
  • Don’t walkabout in the top 100. Edmonton has been better in recent seasons (2014 aside).
  • In an unusual draft like 2014 (or 2003) make better use of those late picks.
  • Print off the Bob McKenzie list and compare it to your own list. If a player is ranked on the McKenzie list, and not on the Oilers list, why? There should be a very good reason and it can’t be ‘saw him bad’ or ‘he never looks good when I see him’ and that’s for sure. Have a good long look at the Pronman list, too.
  • If there is a shy offensive player on the McKenzie list, move that name down. Every time.

We also talk a lot about speed, how every season sees veterans get left behind. The David Musil pick (and the Griffin Reinhart trade) was part of a market correction that involves all kinds of big defensive defensemen (Dylan McIlrath, Luke Schenn). Maybe speed will increase again and again and maybe we reach a point where a player judged to have sufficient speed becomes deficient seemingly overnight because the league keeps getting faster. Are the Oilers anticipating speed increases or the current limit?

SPEED DEMONS

Since 2015, how many speedsters have been drafted by the Oilers? Based on visual evidence and trusted scouting reports, I count Connor McDavid, Caleb Jones, John Marino, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Skyler Brind’Amour, Ryan McLeod. That’s seven.

It doesn’t mean Edmonton is drafting a bunch of slow trains, but should speed be placed on the same level as skill? I think it’s an interesting question.

EVAN BOUCHARD

Since the draft I’ve been getting a few emails each week in regard to Evan Bouchard’s foot speed. It reminds me of the conversation I had with Steve Serdachny after the Nuge was drafted in 2011. I asked about speed, Sedarchny talked about Nuge’s great edges and suggested he would be effective immediately with his stops and starts. Nuge has had some issues as an NHL player (injury, 5-on-5 offense) but skating isn’t one of them.

  • HockeyProspect.com:  A transitional defenseman with good overall speed, his skating stride is awkward but he still generates power and manages to shift-gears quickly, allowing him to cut-wide on defenders and create additional offensive-chances.

I don’t have your answer, we’ll have to find out together. I do know Evan Bouchard is the most substantial offensive player who plays the position this team has drafted since Paul Coffey. It’s going to be a different experience finding out about him, Edmonton simply doesn’t invest in this player type often.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy day on the Lowdown as we motorvate toward the weekend. At 10 this morning, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Holidays, Blue Jays, final turn at Glen Abbey.
  • Aaron Kasinitz, Penn Live. The Baltimore Ravens have a quarterback situation.
  • Matthew Iwanyk, TSN1260. When will the Eskimos have a good start to a football game?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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186 Responses to "Chasing Shadows, Moonlight Mystery"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Summer time leads to optimism. All the players talk about the right things “best shape of my life”, “great mind-set”, etc. but it doesn’t always translate on the ice.

    I have cautious optimism that Lucic will be able to bounce-back somewhat – no I won’t even fantasize about 50 plus points (mainly at evens) but I will hope for 40 plus. It could happen.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    I saw Sunil’s tweet earlier this morning and it lines up with my thought that Ryan Strome at 1RW/2RW is something that should be explored by the coaching staff. He has great metrics with both McDavid and Drai (although the sample size with Connor is maybe too small to put any stock in to) and, if I remember correctly, even Drai and McDavid had better metrics with Strome that without.

    I’m starting to think that Strome is an under-rated player.

    Of course, in order to make that work, if the plan is still to keep Nuge on the wing, someone needs to step up and play 3C.

    Well, after the trade deadline last year where the Blues traded Stastny, Brodziak moved up the lineup and had 11 points (8 primary) at 5 on 5 in 16 games and produced at a team leading 2.74 P/60 (5 on 5).

    I don’t propose to play him full time at 3C but there is something to explore there.

  3. Chris says:

    Anyone else hear Presidents of the United States when playing Uncle Tupelo or Wilco?

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I love the value in the Ryan McLeod pick. Didn’t know much about him on draft day but what I’ve read and seen I really like.

    I believe he’s old enough that he’s AHL eligible next year which is great (doesn’t have to spend his draft plus 2 year in junior).

  5. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Growing up in Yellowknife: the long winters with little sun never bothered me: walking back and forth from school in dusk. They would change the recess so that we would get more light outside

    – In the North it was called Cabin Fever. I’m sure there is some technical term now: like winter darkness deprevation disorder.

    – It never bothered the kids, but it was a real thing for many of the adults

    – Imagine coming home from work everyday, and your wife who just had a baby, who used to be in L.A.: dealing with the post-partum, and cabin fever, and your not doing well in your job, and the company you are working for is struggling…

  6. Jaxon says:

    Yup, you can ignore this comment. I just re-read Lowetide’s statement: “Since 2015” oops. But, I want to pump Nurse’s and Draisaitl’s speed anyway, so I’ll leave it here:

    I would add Draisaitl to the speedsters. I know many don’t consider him fast because of his long stride. Remember, Draisaitl won the fastest skater on the Oilers in the All-star competition before McDavid arrived. He beat Hall, Eberle, Pouliot, Yakupov, Petry, Nugent-Hopkins, Schultz to win it. He beat Hall.

    Also, Nurse, to me, may just be the 2nd fastest on the team. I don’t think there are many faster than Nurse striding up the ice. He passes everyone like they’re standing still. I just wish he could figure out what to do with the puck before he gets to the other team’s goal line.

  7. Jaxon says:

    I’ve made a colour-coded Oilers Cluster Spreadsheet visual aid to show how the Oilers will age and when players will be in their prime. I’ve done different ages for F, D & G for different stages. Of course, better players may get to prime sooner and stay in prime longer but I think it is a good general view of things. Once laid out it becomes apparent that the Oilers prime years will be 20-21, 21-22, and 22-23. I doubt (or I hope) the Oilers won’t have another high pick for some time, so Bouchard may represent the last core piece to be obtained through the draft for a while.

    This is how I’ve demarcated the different stages of careers for each position. I’m not sure they make total sense. I don’t have any data to back this up other than personal observation so your mileage may vary.

    Legend : F , D , G
    Draft : 17-18 , 17-18 , 17-18
    Green : 19-20 , 19-22 , 19-22
    Pro : 21-23 , 23-25 , 23-27
    Prime : 24-26 , 26-28 , 28-30
    Young Vet : 27-29 , 29-30 , 31-31
    Vet : 30-32 , 31-32 , 32-34
    Downhill : 33-35 , 33-35 , 35-37
    Retiree : 36-38 , 36-38 , 38-40
    Jagr : 39+ , 39+ , 41+

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W9kRR02jI_Hfze-kDH4uRPgQao3QthQKj373RpleDnI/edit?usp=sharing

    PS This does not account for expiring contracts. For instance, Sekera, Russell, Larsson, and Nugent-Hopkins have contracts that expire after the 20-21 season therefore that season is very important. Hopefully they can continue forward with new contracts for Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson, but you never know. That also makes 21-22 interesting as some cap space will be freec up. Hopefully it will be the $9.667M in Russell and Sekera contracts.

    PPS McDavid, Draisaitl, Lucic and Klefbom all have contracts that last at least until the end of 22-23.

  8. Jeremy says:

    S.A.D. Seasonal Affective Disorder.

  9. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I saw Sunil’s tweet earlier this morning and it lines up with my thought that Ryan Strome at 1RW/2RW is something that should be explored by the coaching staff.He has great metrics with both McDavid and Drai (although the sample size with Connor is maybe too small to put any stock in to) and, if I remember correctly, even Drai and McDavid had better metrics with Strome that without.

    I’m starting to think that Strome is an under-rated player.

    Of course, in order to make that work, if the plan is still to keep Nuge on the wing, someone needs to step up and play 3C.

    Well, after the trade deadline last year where the Blues traded Stastny, Brodziak moved up the lineup and had 11 points (8 primary) at 5 on 5 in 16 games and produced at a team leading 2.74 P/60 (5 on 5).

    I don’t propose to play him full time at 3C but there is something to explore there.

    Even you were onboard for this is not the year to experiment! Fixing one hole (perhaps) to make a new hole would seem to be foolish. Your comment not full time seems to approve of the McBlender! You can’t have it both ways! This team needs stability on the lines to allow for chemistry to develope. Defined roles for third and fourth line players is important. Hockey players are not like a video game they are not plug and play if they were we would have little need for a coach!

  10. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Jeremy:
    S.A.D.Seasonal Affective Disorder.

    – Ha I knew there would be a term: “Cabin Fever” fit the bill better, as it was a collective feeling you would have in a community, all stuck in the same situation…

  11. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I saw Sunil’s tweet earlier this morning and it lines up with my thought that Ryan Strome at 1RW/2RW is something that should be explored by the coaching staff.He has great metrics with both McDavid and Drai (although the sample size with Connor is maybe too small to put any stock in to) and, if I remember correctly, even Drai and McDavid had better metrics with Strome that without.

    I’m starting to think that Strome is an under-rated player.

    Of course, in order to make that work, if the plan is still to keep Nuge on the wing, someone needs to step up and play 3C.

    Well, after the trade deadline last year where the Blues traded Stastny, Brodziak moved up the lineup and had 11 points (8 primary) at 5 on 5 in 16 games and produced at a team leading 2.74 P/60 (5 on 5).

    I don’t propose to play him full time at 3C but there is something to explore there.

    What about Khaira at 3C/4C, alternating with Brodziak?

    Yamamoto in the AHL for this year, and Puljujärvi at 1RW-2RW alternating with Strome?

  12. Admiral Ackbar says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Saw Strome great last year with LD as his C. He scored that great GWG against Bos in Dec. I think Jujar helped that line a tonne too. I wonder if that line just went cold or TMac just got used to hitting frappé on the blender….

  13. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I love the value in the Ryan McLeod pick.Didn’t know much about him on draft day but what I’ve read and seen I really like.

    I believe he’s old enough that he’s AHL eligible next year which is great (doesn’t have to spend his draft plus 2 year in junior).

    Yup. I’m excited to see what he can do this year and next as well. His brother will likely be in the NHL or the AHL this year. One thing that could be a consideration when evaluating McLeod is the effect that being in the shadow of an older brother can have on a player. No matter how good or bad their relationship, there is 17 years of psychological baggage to unpack and that could very well have an impact on things like consistency, drive and leadership. There can be loyalty, competition, jealousy, respect, deference, protectionism all getting in the way. It will be interesting to see him play on a team that his brother isn’t on and has never been on. That independence might just see him thrive.

  14. 36 percent body fat says:

    Drafting is not hard. Follow lowetide rules. Also add I. If a player isn’t elite and he plays in the Q. His offence likely won’t come along as well as the other leagues. Drop this player some spots in your ranking.

    Stop using eye tests on goalies. Go for number plain and simple and wait until the 3rd round. In the later rounds draft full skill. The odds are better and the reward is better. If you have too much skill you can always trade it for what you want.

    When you drop money on the floor you should pick up your bills and roomies first. Don’t pick up the nickles and dimes and watch the bills blow away. That’s what happens when you draft for position and size.

  15. doritogrande says:

    S.A.D. Seasonal Affective Disorder.

    This is it. My wife struggles with it in the winter also, however it’s the mornings rather than the nights. She can’t function in the mornings without sunlight beaming through the windows, otherwise she’s grumpy and lethargic. Luckily we live in the prairies so we get lots of sunny days, it just takes a while in the mornings to get said sun.

  16. Professor Q says:

    Jaxon,

    I suppose that this also goes for the Strome, Tkachuk, Nylander, Svechnikov, Hughes, etc. brothers, too.

  17. Georgexs says:

    WG. On my phone so I have to keep things number free.

    I’ll respond to your question by asking a few of my own.

    If you think that defensemen and goalies are more important than forwards in determining team success, why does puckiq look at player performance against forward categories? Are the elite, middle, gritensity categories for forwards real and important? Are you able to find similar categories for defensemen? Goalies? Have you tried?

  18. Rondo says:

    31 Teams in 31 Days – Edmonton Oilers

    The Edmonton Oilers are up next. A very strong group of OHL prospects.

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.com/2018/07/31-teams-in-31-days-edmonton-oilers.html

  19. Professor Q says:

    Rondo:
    31 Teams in 31 Days – Edmonton Oilers

    The Edmonton Oilers are up next. A very strong group of OHL prospects.

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.com/2018/07/31-teams-in-31-days-edmonton-oilers.html

    Which is always good to see, despite league-wide doubters of Edmonton’s prospect state.

    As an aside, The Athletic has Edmonton’s highest top prospect under 23 at #21, Evan Bouchard. I feel like he should be higher compared to some of their other choices, as well as having some of Edmonton’s other prospects higher.

  20. JimmyV1965 says:

    36 percent body fat:
    Drafting is not hard. Follow lowetide rules. Also add I. If a player isn’t elite and he plays in the Q. His offence likely won’t come along as well as the other leagues.Drop this player some spots in your ranking.

    Stop using eye tests on goalies.Go for number plain and simple and wait until the 3rd round.In the later rounds draft full skill. The odds are better and the reward is better.If you have too much skill you can always trade it for what you want.

    When you drop money on the floor you should pick up your bills and roomies first.Don’t pick up the nickles and dimes and watch the bills blow away.That’s what happens when you draft for position and size.

    I would think there are 31 NHL GMs and mngt of many different sports that disagree with the premise that drafting is not hard.

  21. HiddenDarts says:

    Jeremy:
    S.A.D.Seasonal Affective Disorder.

    It’s a deep, real thing. I still experience it. It can make the year go real, real rough.

    Funny thing is, I used to get it much less harshly when I lived in Winnipeg. Now, in San Diego, literally a town with 360 days of sun per year? Brutal. Without meds? Basketcaseville, USA.

    If he is experiencing SAD, man. Get that guy a Light Box! No way in hell would I want to be playing NHL Hockey if “the darkness had arrived”.

    Cheers for the continued articles LT. Great stuff as always. Your Kicks story had me breaking out the Rascals “Greatest Hits”.

  22. Jaxon says:

    Professor Q:
    Jaxon,

    I suppose that this also goes for the Strome, Tkachuk, Nylander, Svechnikov, Hughes, etc. brothers, too.

    I don’t think any of them ever played on the same team in junior, though. that is the big difference. 3 years of junior playing on the same team as your older brother who is the star of the team. That’s a lot to unpack.

  23. Georgexs says:

    “I’ll be cheering like hell for him.”

    Me too. I love the guy. Why don’t people love the guy?

  24. Georgexs says:

    I think Strome has delivered as much offense at 5v5 in his career as RNH has in his career.

  25. Jaxon says:

    Professor Q: Which is always good to see, despite league-wide doubters of Edmonton’s prospect state.

    As an aside, The Athletic has Edmonton’s highest top prospect under 23 at #21, Evan Bouchard. I feel like he should be higher compared to some of their other choices, as well as having some of Edmonton’s other prospects higher.

    I like Yamamoto (he’s #50 on The Athletic’s list), but I was hoping they’d pick Vesalainen at #22, who is #26 on their list, or Timmins (offensive RHD) who was picked at #32 and is now #47 on their list. Timmins isn’t much higher than Yamamoto on their list so that is a bit of a wash.

    I also have no idea why they picked Niemelainen at #63 (why!?!?!) ahead of Adam Fox (picked by Calgary at #66!) in 2016. Fox (offensive RHD) is #34 on their list.

    Vaselainen and Fox would be amazing fits right now. Maybe Yamamoto will be better than Vesalainen, but it doesn’t look like it at the moment (and it didn’t on draft day in my opinion). There is no doubt Fox will be better than Niemelainen, though, and he was on draft day.

  26. Georgexs says:

    I remember when we were going to skate Dallas out of the rink with our edge in speed and Carbonneau said something like well you’ve still gotta get to the net. Or something like that. It’s still a limited amount of space, isn’t it?

  27. Bag of Pucks says:

    For the longest time,Steve Kelly vs Shane Doan had me thinking the objective should be to simply draft the player that’s better at the hockeying.

    But the way the league is evolving towards constant pressure forechecking and extreme emphasis on gap control defense, I think your scouting department has to start giving higher priority to a player’s wheels.

    Given that you’re on a Stones kick this week LT, the mantra should be, ‘You gotta move!’

  28. frjohnk says:

    Jaxon:
    Yup, you can ignore this comment. I just re-read Lowetide’s statement: “Since 2015” oops. But, I want to pump Nurse’s and Draisaitl’s speed anyway, so I’ll leave it here:

    I would add Draisaitl to the speedsters. I know many don’t consider him fast because of his long stride. Remember, Draisaitl won the fastest skater on the Oilers in the All-star competition before McDavid arrived. He beat Hall, Eberle, Pouliot, Yakupov, Petry, Nugent-Hopkins, Schultz to win it. He beat Hall.

    Also, Nurse, to me, may just be the 2nd fastest on the team. I don’t think there are many faster than Nurse striding up the ice. He passes everyone like they’re standing still. I just wish he could figure out what to do with the puck before he gets to the other team’s goal line.

    If memory serves me correct, Draisaitl pace around the rink was 14. 7 Seconds. Nurse skated backwards at 15.9.

    McDavid is in the low 13”s. Hall has skated around the rink in the mid 13”s.

    I think Drai has a good top end, but his first couple steps are not as quick as some of the speedsters in the game.

  29. Silver Streak says:

    pts2pndr: Even you were onboard for this is not the year to experiment! Fixing one hole (perhaps) to make a new hole would seem to be foolish. Your comment not full time seems to approve of the McBlender! You can’t have it both ways! This team needs stability on the lines to allow for chemistry to develope. Defined roles for third and fourth line players is important. Hockey players are not like a video game they are not plug and play if they were we would have little need for a coach!

    amen to this….ENOUGH of the Mac Blender….its become a joke league-wide……Strome`s value is maximized at the centre position….leave him there.

  30. Bag of Pucks says:

    The NFL’s G.O.A.T. was drafted 199th overall.

    Drafting is not hard?

    Puh-leeze

  31. Primetime says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    Of course, in order to make that work, if the plan is still to keep Nuge on the wing, someone needs to step up and play 3C.

    I believe Shore is still an unsigned UFA and could probably be had at league minimum at this point. Potential 3rd line centre, could give the flexibility to try Strome in top 6 for a while at least. Problem is, until Darnell is signed, we don’t even know if we have the minimum salary left to offer.

    Maybe Darnell will take a bit less and the team makes Drake/Koskinen pay for all Nurse’s road expenses for the year!

  32. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georgexs,

    – I said this at the end of the post: – Your probably right about this on the extremes. Crosby Malkin really tilt the ice, and their D was not very good. But when you’ve got the puck a lot, and getting lots of scoring chances that’s going to make your D on the ice look good (and your goalie, who doesn’t have to make saves)

    – However I do feel Pittsburgh would have won more cups with better goaltending

    – You only let in goals when the other team has the puck, and the puck changes direction based on what your forwards are doing when they have the puck mostly.

    * I’d add that goalies matter most though for winning the Cup because small samples. Look at the relationship between sv% in playoffs and playoff wins. There also used to be less scoring in playoffs than regular season, but not sure if this is still the case

  33. dustrock says:

    LT, it’s funny, I’m positive I mentioned the long, dark winter as being a factor with Lucic and his and possibly his family’s unhappiness.

    Easier to manage when the team was winning 2 years ago, but this last winter, for whatever reason, seemed the longest in my memory.

    I felt I wasn’t as productive at work, was drinking more than usual.

    I wonder if there’s something in the Oilers’ record in January and February – is there an annual dip? Wouldn’t shock me at all.

    March probably gets them a better record as Edmonton comes out of hibernation.

  34. Psyche says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    “Imagine coming home from work everyday, and your wife who just had a baby, who used to be in L.A.: dealing with the post-partum, and cabin fever, and your not doing well in your job, and the company you are working for is struggling…”

    I hear ya Kinger. It’s a real thing. Exercise helps somewhat. That’s a great summary to give us all perspective on Milan’s situation last winter.

  35. slopitch says:

    The other thing about Lucic was that this past winter was as cold as I can remember. Im sure LT can talk about some winter in the 70s that trumps all but it was nasty. A more mild winter would be much more tolerable.

    As for hockey. I not uber pumped for next year, Im excited for the 2019-2020 season. As a hockey fan of course Im still gonna watch the games just that my expectations are a bit lower. Hoping they get into the playoffs and dont rush Yamo and Bouchard. And that JP takes the next step.

  36. dustrock says:

    https://ohlprospects.blogspot.com/2018/07/31-teams-in-31-days-edmonton-oilers.html

    LT, not sure if you saw this, but Brock always does a great job and here’s his review of the Oilers’ OHL prospects.

  37. Professor Q says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The NFL’s G.O.A.T. was drafted 199th overall.

    Drafting is not hard?

    Puh-leeze

    Otto Graham was drafted 4th overall to the Lions, but ended up not playing for them and just signing with the Browns.

    Oh…you meant Tom Brady…

  38. Professor Q says:

    Primetime: I believe Shore is still an unsigned UFA and could probably be had at league minimum at this point.Potential 3rd line centre, could give the flexibility to try Strome in top 6 for a while at least.Problem is, until Darnell is signed, we don’t even know if we have the minimum salary left to offer.

    Maybe Darnell will take a bit less and the team makes Drake/Koskinen pay for all Nurse’s road expenses for the year!

    Any relation to Eddie?

  39. Professor Q says:

    Jaxon: I don’t think any of them ever played on the same team in junior, though. that is the big difference. 3 years of junior playing on the same team as your older brother who is the star of the team. That’s a lot to unpack.

    Does Nylander count, having played with them?

    Or the Stromes, growing up with them (and McDavid)?

  40. HenryDrix says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I saw Sunil’s tweet earlier this morning and it lines up with my thought that Ryan Strome at 1RW/2RW is something that should be explored by the coaching staff.He has great metrics with both McDavid and Drai (although the sample size with Connor is maybe too small to put any stock in to) and, if I remember correctly, even Drai and McDavid had better metrics with Strome that without.

    I’m starting to think that Strome is an under-rated player.

    Of course, in order to make that work, if the plan is still to keep Nuge on the wing, someone needs to step up and play 3C.

    Well, after the trade deadline last year where the Blues traded Stastny, Brodziak moved up the lineup and had 11 points (8 primary) at 5 on 5 in 16 games and produced at a team leading 2.74 P/60 (5 on 5).

    I don’t propose to play him full time at 3C but there is something to explore there.

    Would like to see the coaches do this, give this arrangement 10-15 games.

  41. OilSafety says:

    One if the best things I’ve learned to combat the long winters is to take a vitimin d suppliment throughout our longest season.

    Our pediatricians introduced it to us when we started having kids as the little ones need it. Basically makes up for the lack of vitimin d we would usually absorb from exposure to the sun.

    Amazing the difference a little white vitimin will make to your mental state.

    I feel for Luc and hope he rebounds. My part in that is to keep cheering and try and keep my social media positive, so I shall.

  42. Jaxon says:

    frjohnk: If memory serves me correct, Draisaitl pace around the rink was 14. 7 Seconds. Nurse skated backwards at 15.9.

    McDavid is in the low 13”s. Hall has skated around the rink in the mid 13”s.

    I think Drai has a good top end, but his first couple steps are not as quick as some of the speedsters in the game.

    You are correct:
    2014-15 SKillas Competition:
    Draisaitl (14.537)
    Klefbom (14.583)
    Hall (14.617)
    Pitlick (14.772)
    Arcobello (14.949)
    Pinizzotto (15.035)

  43. Bag of Pucks says:

    Professor Q: Otto Graham was drafted 4th overall to the Lions, but ended up not playing for them and just signing with the Browns.

    Oh…you meant Tom Brady…

    Graham’s records are undeniably impressive and you’re right, he deserves to be mentioned alongside the likes of Brady, Brees, Montana and Marino, more than he is.

    But considerably easier to dominate a 12 team league without salary cap constraints than it is to dominate the modern NFL.

    I had always rated Brady below Montana until the season he finally got a WR (Moss) comparable to what Montana always had with Rice, and he promptly set the NFL record for touchdown passes in a season and nearly led his team to an undefeated season.

    Brady is so consistently accurate that it borders on the supernatural. And because he’s not the most mobile QB, he HAS to make his read and get the ball out quick. Best pure passer ever.

  44. Melvis says:

    Chris: Anyone else hear Presidents of the United States

    I hear a cacaphony of voices in my head. Although that’s not unusual.

  45. Jaxon says:

    Professor Q: Does Nylander count, having played with them?

    Or the Stromes, growing up with them (and McDavid)?

    Nope. I’m specifically talking about playing on the same team. The Stromes and Nylanders never played on the same team (except maybe in international tournies). I’m talking about going to the rink every day with your big brother and all the psychological elements that may come into play in that situation. How do you act in the dressing room? Do you defer to your big brother? Do you request assignments that your brother is looking for as well? Do you stay quiet? Do you not speak up when your big brother says something you disagree with? Do you not want to make your brother look bad? Do you stick up for him? Does he stick up for you? Do you wonder if your teammates wonder if you’re getting minutes based on your play or based on your big brother being the star? Even though your a 3-year vet on the team, do you still feel like a rookie because your older brother is there? Is your relationship with your brother a good one? Did he pick on you as youngsters. I’d say that would be the norm to a certain extent. I know my brother did, but he’d also be the first one to fight on my behalf too. Do coaches ask you to be more like your big brother? And so on, and so on. There could be a huge weight off his shoulders this season. Or, it could mean absolutely nothing. But I’ll be interested to see how he does this year on the same team without his brother and then next year in pro on a team that has no ties to the McLeod family.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brock Otten on the Oilers’ OHL prospects:

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.com/2018/07…ilers.html

  47. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Brock Otten on the Oilers’ OHL prospects:

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.com/2018/07…ilers.html

    I’m not sure if it would be a good thing or a bad thing for McLeod if Mississauga convinced Jack Hughes to play in the OHL this year. At this point, I think it’s highly unlikely, but you never know. It is the best North American junior league, so maybe it’s an option for him.

  48. Melvis says:

    There are lamps for SAD, although I haven’t tried them. I should.

    Lucic always says the right things at the right time. One might think he has the resources to look into the matter. I’m going to remain positive on a bounce back, however. There’s nothing else for it.

  49. Georgexs says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    “Look at the relationship between sv% in playoffs and playoff wins.”

    K. What’s the relationship?

  50. ArmchairGM says:

    “Alfred Lewy, MD, a seasonal affective disorder researcher at the Oregon Health & Science University, says it’s not only a matter of getting light, but also getting it at the right time. “The most important time to get light is in the morning,” he says.

    He thinks seasonal affective disorder is due to a “phase-shift” of the circadian rhythm. The wall clock may tell you it’s time to get up and at ’em, but your body’s internal clock says you should be resting. Bright light in the morning resets your circadian clock.

    This is relevant to the “fall back” time change, which happens in places that observe Daylight Saving Time. You might think that setting back the clock one hour would make seasonal affective disorder symptoms worse, because the sun sets one hour earlier. “Actually, I think it’s the opposite,” Lewy says. “The problem is waking up before dawn.”

    Lewy says he suspects that “true winter depressives,” the people whose problem is biological and not related to other factors, might feel better after the time change. But the improvement would only be temporary, as days continue to shorten.”

    https://www.webmd.com/depression/features/seasonal-affective-disorder#1

    *********************************************************************************************

    Lucic fell off the cliff after Christmas, at winter solstice. This could be the expalnation we’ve all been looking for.

  51. --hudson-- says:

    The more relevant term for speed seems to be “playing fast”. Not only how fast the puck carrier skates but how quickly decisions are made, how clean the execution is, etc. What data do we need to extract players ability in the other areas besides skating speed?

    You could parse the time between shot attempts against with shots for and determine sets of players who could transition the most quickly. But then you’d also have to test for significance, study correlation and try to attribute the success to individual players. Sportlogiq I imagine would have little trouble creating this dataset if they wanted to.

    By all accounts Bouchard is more like a Larry Murphy than a Paul Coffey so we hope the Oilers know how to make use of him. By memory the Maple Leafs mishandled Murphy, gave him away for free, then he took off again in Detroit. Those Red Wings teams in the 90s probably met the definition of playing fast while employing many players with lead feet.

  52. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Summer time leads to optimism.All the players talk about the right things “best shape of my life”, “great mind-set”, etc. but it doesn’t always translate on the ice.

    I have cautious optimism that Lucic will be able to bounce-back somewhat – no I won’t even fantasize about 50 plus points (mainly at evens) but I will hope for 40 plus. It could happen.

    As of Christmas last year he was on pace for 59 points, so hoping for 50+ isn’t a fantasy.

  53. John Chambers says:

    I truly believe Edmonton’s geography and climate posit a competitive disadvantage for the team, which likely results in a loss of Regular Season standings points.

    Mainly:
    1) significantly more travel time
    2) prevalence of the flu
    3) seasonal disorders

    Will impact Oiler players more than any other in the league (except maybe Winnipeg)

    A lousy start in October followed by a flu-ridden November, plus some early January malaise is a recipe for a team to be on the outside looking in.

  54. rbjork says:

    Speed is more important than ever in today’s NHL, but you can’t be drafting players for speed on its own. Otherwise, it is similar to the days of drafting for size alone. You need skill and speed, and the ability to put those two things together. Now if you are looking at two players of similar skill, then speed could be the deciding factor.

    Rico Fata was a speed demon, drafted 6th overall, he managed to play 230 games, but scored just 63 points in that time.

    Speed can get players the chances, but they need the skill to finished them.

  55. Professor Q says:

    Does anyone know if Edmonton will have a rookie showcase prior to the September 12 game against Calgary?

    I’m getting antsy for some hockey action. This is too much waiting now.

    At work we’re expanding the hockey section and being trained to add more “expertise” and widen our consumer base (hopefully). That’ll have to do until September.

  56. godot10 says:

    Georgexs:
    I think Strome has delivered as much offense at 5v5 in his career as RNH has in his career.

    Nugent-Hopkins has done this against the best players in the league, while Strome has done it only against the near dregs of the league.

  57. Professor Q says:

    John Chambers:
    I truly believe Edmonton’s geography and climate posit a competitive disadvantage for the team, which likely results in a loss of Regular Season standings points.

    Mainly:
    1) significantly more travel time
    2) prevalence of the flu
    3) seasonal disorders

    Will impact Oiler players more than any other in the league (except maybe Winnipeg)

    A lousy start in October followed by a flu-ridden November, plus some early January malaise is a recipe for a team to be on the outside looking in.

    Hopefully this happens to other teams, and not Edmonton.

  58. godot10 says:

    Professor Q: Otto Graham was drafted 4th overall to the Lions, but ended up not playing for them and just signing with the Browns.

    Oh…you meant Tom Brady…

    I think Jim Brown has to be in the conversation.

  59. russ99 says:

    godot10,

    Also, Strome’s value is his shot, if he can figure out how to harness it. He had to lead the team in shots not on net last year.

    I think it would be worth a 10 game look on one of the top two lines, but this season starts really tough, I doubt we’ll be trying much that we don’t know works pretty quickly in camp to start the year.

  60. Professor Q says:

    godot10: I think Jim Brown has to be in the conversation.

    For sure, however I just took the hint we were discussing QBs.

    Graham is #1 when era adjusted (he was just so accurate and versatile, and is only 115th in pass attempts) while Brady is 13th. 7 championships in 10 years, the longest winning/undefeated streak of North American sports, etc.

    It really would be something to have seen Marino, Graham, Tarkenton, Starr, etc. in the modern game with modern training.

    http://www.footballperspective.com/adjusting-passer-rating-for-era-part-v-the-results/

    Also, I think Brown might have been dominate on the field, but his violent actions off the field just ruin him for me. Like Ray Lewis.

  61. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs:
    WG. On my phone so I have to keep things number free.

    I’ll respond to your question by asking a few of my own.

    If you think that defensemen and goalies are more important than forwards in determining team success, why does puckiq look at player performance against forward categories? Are the elite, middle, gritensity categories for forwards real and important? Are you able to find similar categories for defensemen? Goalies? Have you tried?

    We only look at forwards because what makes for an elite forward is much easier to figure out than “what makes an elite Dman”

    When we worked on the 4 “gates” that each forward needed to pass through to achieve “elite” status in any given year, the results worked well off the bat.

    Not so for Dmen.

    Our thoughts were that once we had a few years of WM data we could find a better set of “gates” that the Dmen needed to pass through using TOI vs each of the bins.

    We will get there eventually.

    Maybe.

    As for goalies, I have my own set of rules but it has nothing to do with WoodMoney.

  62. godot10 says:

    Professor Q:
    Also, I think Brown might have been dominate on the field, but his actions off the field just ruin him for me. Like Ray Lewis.

    Jim Brown is nothing like Ray Lewis. Sure he is an activist, but he has not associated with dubious people. His activism comes from a true place, and he has been consistent with it. And he is not a virtue signaller…i.e. just talk, and no action.

    The white men running football forced him to leave the game because they wouldn’t pay him a fair wage. He could make more money in bad movies.

  63. Leroy Draisdale says:

    From Lucic’s interview it’s nice to know they take good care of the boys…..but it does lead one to wonder how our blue chip forward prospect is left to hitch hike home from the last day this year.

  64. pts2pndr says:

    Jaxon:
    Yup, you can ignore this comment. I just re-read Lowetide’s statement: “Since 2015” oops. But, I want to pump Nurse’s and Draisaitl’s speed anyway, so I’ll leave it here:

    I would add Draisaitl to the speedsters. I know many don’t consider him fast because of his long stride. Remember, Draisaitl won the fastest skater on the Oilers in the All-star competition before McDavid arrived. He beat Hall, Eberle, Pouliot, Yakupov, Petry, Nugent-Hopkins, Schultz to win it. He beat Hall.

    Also, Nurse, to me, may just be the 2nd fastest on the team. I don’t think there are many faster than Nurse striding up the ice. He passes everyone like they’re standing still. I just wish he could figure out what to do with the puck before he gets to the other team’s goal line.

    Connor and Nurse will figure it out! I think they already have just need to get it fine tuned!

  65. leadfarmer says:

    Draft forwards with Speed and skill and if they are elite in one area but still possess the other put a big star next to them.

  66. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs:
    WG. On my phone so I have to keep things number free.

    I’ll respond to your question by asking a few of my own.

    If you think that defensemen and goalies are more important than forwards in determining team success, why does puckiq look at player performance against forward categories? Are the elite, middle, gritensity categories for forwards real and important? Are you able to find similar categories for defensemen? Goalies? Have you tried?

    Mostly it was discovering this:

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2016/04/playoff-teams-in-nhl-average-60-of-dman.html

    Better Dcorps make the playoffs more often.

    I wrote a post the other day that fleshed it out a bit:

    https://lowetide.ca/2018/07/20/coaching-crossroads/#comment-753652

    You were involved in that thread so I think you read it. There are other examples as well as WSH, but WSH is pretty stark.

    Here’s a reprint of that post if people don’t want to click the link:

    All,

    Here’s an example of why I look at Dcorps first (and then goalies) and try not to get enamored with forwards unless they are really high end and in front of an Actual NHL Top 4 Dcorps.

    WSH 13/14
    Goal Differential 225-229 (-4)
    Missed the playoffs (9th in Conference)

    Top 6 forwards via total TOI
    Backstrom
    Ovechkin
    Johansson
    Brower
    Chimera
    Ward

    WSH 14/15
    Goal Differential 237-199 (+38)
    Finished 4th in Conference

    Top 6 forwards via TOI
    Backstrom
    Ovechkin
    Ward
    Johansson
    Brower
    Fehr

    WTF?

    Fehr and Chimera were the only forwards to swap spots in the top 6. Why the difference?

    WSH 13/14
    Top 6 Dmen via total TOI
    Carlson
    Alzner
    Green
    Orlov
    Erskine
    Schmidt

    WSH 14/15
    Top 5 Dmen via total TOI
    NIskanen
    Orpik
    Carlson
    Alzner
    Green
    Schmidt

    Remember that in 13/14 Carlson was 23 and led WSH in TOI.

    Green has been over his head outside of 3rd pair 5v5 for his career.

    Orlov was 22. Erskine was done and never played after this year.

    In 14/15 Niskanen was a killer add as he was clearly the best RHD on PIT the year before and Orpik was still useful.

    Having a Dcorps where your top 4 are Actual NHL Dcorps and not playing above their Actual NHL ability is soooooooooooo goddamn important and most people miss it.

    I see this situation over and over in the NHL and Dcorps quality and depth means more than anything when projecting where a team finishes. (assuming health)

    The Dmen have two main jobs:
    1) Stop the opposition sortie
    2) Get the puck back and get it to a team mate.

    If they can’t do that, it doesn’t matter how good the forwards are.

    This is why I’m bullish on EDM this year.

  67. pts2pndr says:

    doritogrande:
    S.A.D. Seasonal Affective Disorder.

    This is it. My wife struggles with it in the winter also, however it’s the mornings rather than the nights. She can’t function in the mornings without sunlight beaming through the windows, otherwise she’s grumpy and lethargic. Luckily we live in the prairies so we get lots of sunny days, it just takes a while in the mornings to get said sun.

    Some of the new full spectrum lighting seems to help. If you are into supplements vitamin D seems to help somewhat as well.

  68. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Do you like Edmonton or Calgary better this upcoming season?

  69. defmn says:

    I have an idea that might help the Oilers with their drafting. Math tells you a lot – particularly forwards – and the eye test can tell you a lot if the right set of eyes are involved but they only get so many looks because of costs of travel etc.

    My idea is to help Darryl spend another million or so of his fortune by starting an alumni club.

    It involves approaching former players who have retired around North America and Europe and offering to buy them 2 season tickets for the club in whatever city they now live in. Obviously you wouldn’t do this for every ex-Oiler but lets say you restrict the club to 30 guys.

    Presumably these guys like to watch hockey anyway and the season tickets for junior are not that expensive but you throw in a week for all 30 members at a nice resort for him and his plus one. The GM and scouts will be there for at least a couple of days so they get a chance to visit old friends and hang out.

    The only other thing they need to do is to be at the rink when the Oilers scouts are in their town. They sit together and the guy who is not a scout, but has been watching the team all season, can answer questions from the scout and give some background like if the guy the scout is there to watch is playing his usual game, things he has noticed that might need work, if there is another guy worth watching. The kind of stuff that doesn’t require the level of expertise you hope to get from a professional scout but that watching 50 – 60 games adds to the conversation.

    All of this adds to the reputation of the team, imo, because it gives something to the guys after they retire to make them feel like they still count and it builds loyalty while adding one more layer of information to the scouting staff when they drive in to watch a couple of games.

    And all it costs is some of Darryl’s money.

  70. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Our D-Corps is better and can get better? Or the depth alone?

  71. deardylan says:

    Re: SAD and also JetLAG. Body rhythm is out of whack.

    I mentioned to my coach that sometimes I feel sluggish even a week after a long flight: my body and time just isn’t aligned.

    He said “have you put your feet into the soil and walked a few minutes on the earth?”

    I said no I live in apartment and wear shoes with rubber soles.

    He said “your body needs grounding and connection to Mother Earth”

    So I would walk barefoot in local park and sit on the grass for a bit. Everytime I did this – it did the trick.

    Not sure if SAD could also be connected to our lack of grounding and connection to the earth?

    In dark winter in Canada maybe even harder. Wonder if my coach would recommend I jump into hottub and then jump out of it to roll in the snow for a few minutes? Or making a snowman? Throwing snowballs? Snow-angels?

    Anyone others ideas of how you ground/connect to nature in the wintertime?

  72. Georgexs says:

    godot10: Nugent-Hopkins has done this against the best players in the league, while Strome has done it only against the near dregs of the league.

    If you say so. I know that forwards time on ice has a positive relationship with points per 60. You’re basically slotted into the order based on your ability to generate offense. Yes, RNH has been slotted higher in the order than Strome if you look at TOI. But he’s generated offense at the same rate as Strome. So either RNH has underperformed in his spot or Strome has overperformed in his.

  73. dustrock says:

    Should we be worried about the Europe trip and start to the season? October does not look pleasant.

    I get the feeling these either end up being bonding experiences and a fun field trip for the team, or the difference throws them off and don’t really get into the season grind until it’s too late.

    Oct 6th – opener – New Jersey – Cologne, Germany
    Oct 11th – @Boston
    Oct 13th – @NYR
    Oct 16th – @Wpg

    Oct 18th – Boston
    Oct 20th – Nashville
    Oct 23rd – Pittsburgh
    Oct 25th – Washington

    Oct 27th @Nashville
    Oct 28th – @Chicago

    Oct 30th – Minnesota

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Also, Nurse, to me, may just be the 2nd fastest on the team. I don’t think there are many faster than Nurse striding up the ice. He passes everyone like they’re standing still. I just wish he could figure out what to do with the puck before he gets to the other team’s goal line.

    His skating reminds me of Jay Bouwmeester.

  75. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Here’s is some info about why I think if the Dcorps holds, EDM is back in the playoffs:

    Let’s look at EDM 5v5 results 16/17 and 17/18 and see what we see when we break it down:

    First, overall GF%
    16/17 – 54.0% – 5th in NHL
    17/18- 46.1% – 24th in NHL

    Massive drop.

    Let’s break down things to see what changed year over year
    Goals For/60
    16/17 – 2.92 8th in NHL
    17/18 – 2.77 22nd in NHL

    A drop, but not massive.

    Goals Against/60
    16/17 – 2.49 8th in NHL
    17/18 – 3.06 28th in NHL

    Thar she blows!!

    Let’s dig in further:

    Let’s look at the same metrics, but McDavid off/on.

    16/17 GF%
    McDavid On 62.1%
    McDavid Off 48.9%
    Difference of 13.2%

    17/18
    McDavid On 57.1%
    McDavid Off 41.1%
    Difference of 16.0%

    So the spread between McDavid on the team grows by 2.8% while McDavid’s own GF% drops by 5%

    Did McDavid get worse year over year in his ability to drive GF%?

    The McDavid Off got worse by 7.8%.

    That points to something happening that effects both McDavid AND the rest of the forwards.

    The forward corps got worse year over year, but maybe just ~3% GF as I don’t think McDavid got worse at driving GF%.

    Let’s dig in further:
    Goals For/60 McDavid On
    16/17 3.53
    17/18 3.61

    Whoa. The Oilers actually scored more when McDavid was on the ice, year over year.

    What about the rest of the team?

    Goals For/60 McDavid Off
    16/17 1.97
    17/18 1.81

    There’s your loss of Eberle etc. showing up.

    Still doesn’t account for the massive drop in GF%, and McDavid score *more* so it must be in goals against.

    Goals Against/60 McDavid On
    16/17 2.15
    17/18 2.71

    Wow. Massive difference

    Goals Against/60 McDavid Off
    16/17 2.05
    17/18 2.59

    Almost an identical drop as McDavid. (0.56 & 0.54)

    This is all pointing to “Dcorps & Goalie” driving the GA/60 up.

    Let’s quickly dig into shot volume: (all shots = CF)

    CFor/60 McDavid On
    16/17 60.6
    17/18 66.5

    Big spike in shot volume for McDavid

    CFor/60 McDavid Off
    16/17 53.5
    17/18 56.7

    Huh. A little spike for “off” as well. Perhaps the increase in shot volume but decrease in goals for “off” speaks some to scoring ability and some to the big increase by Oiler Dmen shots (especially early in the season)

    How about against?

    CAgainst/60 McDavid On
    16/17 53.9
    17/18 60.2

    Big spike again, but its the wrong kind of spike.

    CAgainst/60 McDavid Off
    16/17 55.6
    17/18 58..7

    Like the For, there is a small increase.

    It looks like the Oilers became a higher event team all around and McDavid especially so.

    The bad part is that it turned into way more goals against than goals for.

    I wonder if this was McLellan trying to play “faster”?

    Regardless, having more Actual NHL Dmen playing in the top 4 drives down goals and shots against.

    I’ve seen it time and time again and there are good examples of teams with the same/very similar groups of Forwards (and same goalie) making big jumps in GF% as the Dcorps improved (WSH 13/14-14/15 example earlier and NYI the same year)

    The only team that consistently made the playoffs over that 3 year sample I looked at with a below average Dcrops was PIT.

    On of the only teams to not make the playoffs with an above average Dcorps was VAN the year that both Sedins were hurt. This speaks to “forwards DO matter” and they do…….its just they don’t matter as much as Dmen unless they are high end/elite and there are not many of those in the NHL and they are not distributed evenly.

  76. Todd Macallan says:

    Interesting top 50 prospects list by Wheeler over at the Athletic. Shame he only watched the first half of Yamamoto’s season though.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: Even you were onboard for this is not the year to experiment! Fixing one hole (perhaps) to make a new hole would seem to be foolish. Your comment not full time seems to approve of the McBlender! You can’t have it both ways! This team needs stability on the lines to allow for chemistry to develope. Defined roles for third and fourth line players is important. Hockey players are not like a video game they are not plug and play if they were we would have little need for a coach!

    Firstly, we have the following set for our lines:

    Nuge/Mcdavid
    / Drai
    / Strome
    /Brodziak

    That’s pretty much it – there will be experimenting to put lines together to start the season.

    Secondly, I’m not even sure Strome at 3C is the best place for him or the team so that should maybe not even be set in stone.

    Thirdly, I hope to have lines (or at least pairs) that the coaching staff can run with for the majority of the season but lines will change throughout the year – injuries, stagnation, spark required, etc.

    Fourthly, I very much hope the coach considers shortening the bench and moving some players around during times when a goal is required. Strome moving up from 3C (and Brodziak moving up to 3C) could very well be a strategy.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: What about Khaira at 3C/4C, alternating with Brodziak?

    Yamamoto in the AHL for this year, and Puljujärvi at 1RW-2RW alternating with Strome?

    Yes, that is something to potentially explore. If Strome is to see time in the top 6, it would make sense for Broziak to move up and fill in at 3C and Kharia at 4C – at least I think it would make sense.

    Nuge/McDavid/Puljujarvi
    Lucic/Drai/Strome
    Aberg/Broziak/Kassian (Rattie)
    Caggulia/Kharia/Rattie (Kassian)

    I’m not sure Rattie is an NHL player not playing with 97 though.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: Which is always good to see, despite league-wide doubters of Edmonton’s prospect state.

    As an aside, The Athletic has Edmonton’s highest top prospect under 23 at #21, Evan Bouchard. I feel like he should be higher compared to some of their other choices, as well as having some of Edmonton’s other prospects higher.

    Is that the Wheeler list I read recently? Had Yamamoto at 50.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon: I like Yamamoto (he’s #50 on The Athletic’s list), but I was hoping they’d pick Vesalainen at #22, who is #26 on their list, or Timmins (offensive RHD) who was picked at #32 and is now #47 on their list. Timmins isn’t much higher than Yamamoto on their list so that is a bit of a wash.

    I also have no idea why they picked Niemelainen at #63 (why!?!?!) ahead of Adam Fox (picked by Calgary at #66!)in 2016. Fox (offensive RHD) is #34 on their list.

    Vaselainen and Fox would be amazing fits right now. Maybe Yamamoto will be better than Vesalainen, but it doesn’t look like it at the moment (and it didn’t on draft day in my opinion). There is no doubt Fox will be better than Niemelainen, though, and he was on draft day.

    I love the fact that the flames were not going to be able to sign Fox and they had to throw their best prospect in to a trade to try and save face.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Silver Streak
    Strome`s value is maximized at the centre position….leave him there.

    This is a debatable point in my opinion.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Primetime: I believe Shore is still an unsigned UFA and could probably be had at league minimum at this point.Potential 3rd line centre, could give the flexibility to try Strome in top 6 for a while at least.Problem is, until Darnell is signed, we don’t even know if we have the minimum salary left to offer.

    Maybe Darnell will take a bit less and the team makes Drake/Koskinen pay for all Nurse’s road expenses for the year!

    I’d be just fine bringing Nick Shore on board – I think we need one more actual NHL player (in that price range) to put another body between Brade Malone and the NHL.

    With that said, to me, Nick Shore would be a 12th-14th forward guy. I don’t know about 3C – I’d be more comfortable with Brodziak at 3C based on his success at the end of last year.

  83. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    1. How about better (blank) make the playoffs more often? Fill in the blank.

    2. Didn’t WSH change coaches in 14/15?

    3. Niskanen was +1 on 5v5 goals that year, wasn’t he?

    I’ll look at your post.

    It’s interesting. I thought with the rationale for puckiq you had seen what I’d seen in the data.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon: I’m not sure if it would be a good thing or a bad thing for McLeod if Mississauga convinced Jack Hughes to play in the OHL this year. At this point, I think it’s highly unlikely, but you never know. It is the best North American junior league, so maybe it’s an option for him.

    Quinn hasn’t signed yet, has he? I wonder if he’ll be back in Michigan next year? If so, I assume that will solidify Jack’s attendance at Michigan. I wonder if Jack holds a grudge against the OHL for denying him exceptional status to play at 15?

    Just totally speculating here.

  85. godot10 says:

    Georgexs: If you say so. I know that forwards time on ice has a positive relationship with points per 60. You’re basically slotted into the order based on your ability to generate offense. Yes, RNH has been slotted higher in the order than Strome if you look at TOI. But he’s generated offense at the same rate as Strome. So either RNH has underperformed in his spot or Strome has overperformed in his.

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is running 6 minute miles on a treadmill inclined at 5%. Strome is running 6 minute miles on a flat treadmill. Quality of competition matters.

  86. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Do you like Edmonton or Calgary better this upcoming season?

    EDM

    CGY downgraded the Dcorps.

    I think Hanifin will be the goods, but he hasn’t played full time at 2LD yet and there is a learning curve there.

    He’ll have a good partner in Hamonic.

    Brodie<<<<<<Hamilton so CGY's 1st pair, which was one of their biggest strengths is less so.

    They're 3rd pair is not good as Prout and Stone are not good. Kulak is ok, but he might not even make the team.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers:
    I truly believe Edmonton’s geography and climate posit a competitive disadvantage for the team, which likely results in a loss of Regular Season standings points.

    Mainly:
    1) significantly more travel time
    2) prevalence of the flu
    3) seasonal disorders

    Will impact Oiler players more than any other in the league (except maybe Winnipeg)

    A lousy start in October followed by a flu-ridden November, plus some early January malaise is a recipe for a team to be on the outside looking in.

    Travel is worse in Vancouver and they also have seasonal disorders (where the sun may not show itself for weeks on end).

    Then again, what major free agent has ever chosen to go to Vancouver? Messier but that was just to screw with them, we all know that.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    godot10,

    Also, Strome’s value is his shot, if he can figure out how to harness it. He had to lead the team in shots not on net last year.

    I think it would be worth a 10 game look on one of the top two lines, but this season starts really tough, I doubt we’ll be trying much that we don’t know works pretty quickly in camp to start the year.

    From my eyes last year, he is an underrated puck distributor in the offensive zone. I saw him have plus vision and ability to make cross-ice passes – most went unconverted.

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Our D-Corps is better and can get better? Or the depth alone?

    Is better than who?

    If this is in regards to “better than last year” then:

    Its safe to assume Larsson, Klefbom and Sekera will have better years, and they are the 3 best on the team (although Nurse is rising fast)

    Benning had great results again last year and might be close to being able to handle 2nd pair.

    The depth is key though.

    Dmen get hurt.

    When a team loses an Actual Top 4 NHL Dman and can replace him with someone who can handle those minutes, that’s a big big deal.

    EDM has 4 Actual top 4 Dmen in my opinion and the other 2 are guys (4&83) who are 5/6 so I rate them as “good enough to play top 4 and not drag the pairing if the partner is strong”

    I actually think EDM has one of the deepest Dcorps in the league now.

    No high end offensive driver, but I think Dman points are way over rated anyhow.

    Klef and Sekera being as good as they were in 16/17 is the key to 18/19.

  90. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy v2.0: EDM

    CGY downgraded the Dcorps.

    I think Hanifin will be the goods, but he hasn’t played full time at 2LD yet and there is a learning curve there.

    He’ll have a good partner in Hamonic.

    Brodie<<<<<<Hamilton so CGY’s 1st pair, which was one of their biggest strengths is less so.

    They’re 3rd pair is not good as Prout and Stone are not good.Kulak is ok, but he might not even make the team.

    I suspect 2 of Andersson, Kylington, and Vaalimaki will be making up their bottom pair soon. Stone sucks, I hope they hold onto him for the duration of his deal. I wonder if Brodie’s numbers re-surge playing with Gio.

  91. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here’s is some info about why I think if the Dcorps holds, EDM is back in the playoffs:

    Let’s look at EDM 5v5 results 16/17 and 17/18 and see what we see when we break it down:

    First, overall GF%
    16/17 – 54.0% – 5th in NHL
    17/18- 46.1% – 24th in NHL

    Massive drop.

    Let’s break down things to see what changed year over year
    Goals For/60
    16/17 – 2.92 8th in NHL
    17/18 – 2.77 22nd in NHL

    A drop, but not massive.

    Goals Against/60
    16/17 – 2.49 8th in NHL
    17/18 – 3.06 28th in NHL

    Thar she blows!!

    Let’s dig in further:

    Let’s look at the same metrics, but McDavid off/on.

    16/17 GF%
    McDavid On 62.1%
    McDavid Off 48.9%
    Difference of 13.2%

    17/18
    McDavid On 57.1%
    McDavid Off 41.1%
    Difference of 16.0%

    So the spread between McDavid on the team grows by 2.8% while McDavid’s own GF% drops by 5%

    Did McDavid get worse year over year in his ability to drive GF%?

    The McDavid Off got worse by 7.8%.

    That points to something happening that effects both McDavid AND the rest of the forwards.

    The forward corps got worse year over year, but maybe just ~3% GF as I don’t think McDavid got worse at driving GF%.

    Let’s dig in further:
    Goals For/60 McDavid On
    16/17 3.53
    17/18 3.61

    Whoa.The Oilers actually scored more when McDavid was on the ice, year over year.

    What about the rest of the team?

    Goals For/60 McDavid Off
    16/17 1.97
    17/181.81

    There’s your loss of Eberle etc. showing up.

    Still doesn’t account for the massive drop in GF%, and McDavid score *more* so it must be in goals against.

    Goals Against/60 McDavid On
    16/17 2.15
    17/18 2.71

    Wow.Massive difference

    Goals Against/60 McDavid Off
    16/17 2.05
    17/18 2.59

    Almost an identical drop as McDavid. (0.56 & 0.54)

    This is all pointing to “Dcorps & Goalie” driving the GA/60 up.

    Let’s quickly dig into shot volume: (all shots = CF)

    CFor/60 McDavid On
    16/17 60.6
    17/18 66.5

    Big spike in shot volume for McDavid

    CFor/60 McDavid Off
    16/17 53.5
    17/18 56.7

    Huh.A little spike for “off” as well.Perhaps the increase in shot volume but decrease in goals for “off” speaks some to scoring ability and some to the big increase by Oiler Dmen shots (especially early in the season)

    How about against?

    CAgainst/60 McDavid On
    16/17 53.9
    17/18 60.2

    Big spike again, but its the wrong kind of spike.

    CAgainst/60 McDavid Off
    16/17 55.6
    17/18 58..7

    Like the For, there is a small increase.

    It looks like the Oilers became a higher event team all around and McDavid especially so.

    The bad part is that it turned into way more goals against than goals for.

    I wonder if this was McLellan trying to play “faster”?

    Regardless, having more Actual NHL Dmen playing in the top 4 drives down goals and shots against.

    I’ve seen it time and time again and there are good examples of teams with the same/very similar groups of Forwards (and same goalie) making big jumps in GF% as the Dcorps improved (WSH 13/14-14/15 example earlier and NYI the same year)

    The only team that consistently made the playoffs over that 3 year sample I looked at with a below average Dcrops was PIT.

    On of the only teams to not make the playoffs with an above average Dcorps was VAN the year that both Sedins were hurt.This speaks to “forwards DO matter” and they do…….its just they don’t matter as much as forwards unless they are high end/elite and there are not many of those in the NHL and they are not distributed evenly.

    Thanks for this. Very interesting. Makes me think 2RD is the lynchpin this year.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Leroy Draisdale:
    From Lucic’s interview it’s nice to know they take good care of the boys…..but it does lead one to wonder how our blue chip forward prospect is left to hitch hike home from the last day this year.

    This is the same teenager that, during a break, decided to travel around the city and drop in on various outdoor rinks – I think he is kind of a free spirit and was just living life in these moments.

    Maybe Koskinen can befriend him (with Pak gone) – damn 10 year age difference.

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    1. How about better (blank) make the playoffs more often? Fill in the blank.

    2. Didn’t WSH change coaches in 14/15?

    3. Niskanen was +1 on 5v5 goals that year, wasn’t he?

    I’ll look at your post.

    It’s interesting. I thought with the rationale for puckiq you had seen what I’d seen in the data.

    I’m pretty vague on what makes an “Actual NHL Dman”, but I do look at their WoodMoney results and Rels therein now that I have that data.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    Should we be worried about the Europe trip and start to the season?October does not look pleasant.

    I get the feeling these either end up being bonding experiences and a fun field trip for the team, or the difference throws them off and don’t really get into the season grind until it’s too late.

    Oct 6th – opener – New Jersey – Cologne, Germany
    Oct 11th – @Boston
    Oct 13th – @NYR
    Oct 16th – @Wpg

    Oct 18th – Boston
    Oct 20th – Nashville
    Oct 23rd – Pittsburgh
    Oct 25th – Washington

    Oct 27th@Nashville
    Oct 28th – @Chicago

    Oct 30th – Minnesota

    When it was first coming out that the Oilers were going to head to Europe I was 100% against it thinking the travel and the jet lag and the effed up training camp and everything would lead to a bad start when they cannot really afford one.

    It was then pointed out to me that the teams that have gone overseas over the last few years have generally had good starts to the year so maybe its not necessarily a bad thing.

    The schedule is horrific to look at but, again, I’m wondering if its a good thing? If the Oilers can just tread water during October and come out .500, they will set themselves up very well for the rest of the year.

    Almost all the teams they will be playing are very good teams, playoff teams and, maybe I’m living in a fantasy world, but some times those teams take a little while to get going, in particular of they’ve had a long playoff run.

    Shit Ovechkin and Oshie might still be lit up….

  95. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I love the fact that the flames were not going to be able to sign Fox and they had to throw their best prospect in to a trade to try and save face.

    You would think they could have made a separate deal for him though.

  96. Bank Shot says:

    godot10: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is running 6 minute miles on a treadmill inclined at 5%.Strome is running 6 minute miles on a flat treadmill.Quality of competition matters.

    Has RNH really been facing the top opposition all the time?

    I’d say Mcdavid has taken over that role.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is running 6 minute miles on a treadmill inclined at 5%.Strome is running 6 minute miles on a flat treadmill.Quality of competition matters.

    Quality of linemates matters more….

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: EDM

    CGY downgraded the Dcorps.

    I think Hanifin will be the goods, but he hasn’t played full time at 2LD yet and there is a learning curve there.

    He’ll have a good partner in Hamonic.

    Brodie<<<<<<Hamilton so CGY’s 1st pair, which was one of their biggest strengths is less so.

    They’re 3rd pair is not good as Prout and Stone are not good.Kulak is ok, but he might not even make the team.

    Where does Rasmus fit in?

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: lynchpin

    Benning’s ability to establish himself in that spot is one of the keys to the season (along with Talbot bouncing back and McDavid staying healthy).

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    Unpacked one at a time:

    1. How about better (blank) make the playoffs more often? Fill in the blank.

    Dcorps!!!

    2. Didn’t WSH change coaches in 14/15?

    They did.

    They also massively upgraded their Dcorps


    3. Niskanen was +1 on 5v5 goals that year, wasn’t he?

    Yes, hauling around Alzner vs the other teams’s best.

    GF% with Alzner 48.7%
    GF% without Alzner 58.8% (only 237 minutes….)

    I’ll look at your post.

    It’s interesting. I thought with the rationale for puckiq you had seen what I’d seen in the data.

    The post isn’t very scientific, its more of a “hey look at this” type thing.

    I thought it was weird how 60% floated in as the magic number each year

    Like I said earlier, now that I have puckiq data I use it in my “is this guy an Actual Top 4 NHL Dman?” evaluations.

    Those aren’t too scientific either, but we’re working on it.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot: HasRNH really been facing the top opposition all the time?

    I’d say Mcdavid has taken over that role.

    In 2016/17, Nuge played something like 41% of his even strength minutes against elites – it was top 5 toughest minutes for forwards.

    I think it was more evenly spread among Nuge, Drai and McDavid this past season.

  102. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I suspect 2 of Andersson, Kylington, and Vaalimaki will be making up their bottom pair soon. Stone sucks, I hope they hold onto him for the duration of his deal. I wonder if Brodie’s numbers re-surge playing with Gio.

    My money is on Brodie dragging down Gio

    Last time they played full time together they went:

    CF% 49.9
    GF% 48.9

    While playing vs the toughs on a team that was overall

    CF% 48.0
    GF% 47.5

    Last year Gio and Hamilton were:

    CF% 58.3
    GF% 52.5

    On a team that was overall:

    CF% 53.5
    GF% 48.2

    This might *really* drag down their results vs the best.

    Brodie seems to be declining and I don’t know how much longer Gio can be Gio at 35 years old.

    We’ll see

  103. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m pretty vague on what makes an “Actual NHL Dman”, but I do look at their WoodMoney results and Rels therein now that I have that data.

    Somewhere buried in this blog is a red wine summit (at least on my end) that I had with Gmoney in which I’d swear I came up with the ultimate definition of a top four defenseman… too bad I can’t find it. 🙂

    As four the importance of top four dmen, the 2015 Dallas Stars are instructive. Lose Gogo (back when he could play) and Demers and they walked into the elevator shaft the subsequent season.

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Here’s the biggest reason why Dmen matter more (or to be more clear: why having Actual Top 4 NHL Dmen is important)

    EDM all players TOI/gm last year:

    Player TOI/GP
    Darnell Nurse 18.9
    Adam Larsson 18.9
    Oscar Klefbom 17.0
    Kris Russell 16.4
    Connor McDavid 16.4
    Matthew Benning 15.5
    Brandon Davidson 15.1
    Patrick Maroon 15.0
    Leon Draisaitl 14.4
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 13.8

    Crazy!!!

    Kris Russell playing as much McDavid!!

    Dmen play a ton and you can only effect the game when you’re on the ice.

    Dmen,Dmen,Dmen,Dmen matter.

  105. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: Somewhere buried in this blog is a red wine summit (at least on my end) that I had with Gmoney in which I’d swear I came up with the ultimate definition of a top four defenseman… too bad I can’t find it. 🙂

    As four the importance of top four dmen, the 2015 Dallas Stars are instructive. Lose Gogo (back when he could play) and Demers and they walked into the elevator shaft the subsequent season.

    I made $200 off of DSF because of that exact thing.

    I saw the Dcorps get really shallow so predicted the team that won the Central one year, would not make the playoffs the year after.

    And I won.

    Got 2-1 on the bet too (as it was kinda thin)

  106. Georgexs says:

    godot10: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is running 6 minute miles on a treadmill inclined at 5%.Strome is running 6 minute miles on a flat treadmill.Quality of competition matters.

    Again, if you say so. I’ve never seen you take too much of an interest in running numbers so I’ll leave you to your preferences. Amongst the players asked to run the 5% incline, RNH’s numbers are, um, what do you like to call Strome? Let’s hope he has a career year with the real deal.

  107. commonfan29 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Kris Russell playing as much McDavid!!

    Dmen play a ton and you can only effect the game when you’re on the ice.

    Dmen,Dmen,Dmen,Dmen matter.

    It would be really interesting to see some team experiment with dressing 10F and 8D, and running four pairings soomeday.

    Without strong depth that fourth pairing could be really rough, but I wonder how much that could be mitigated by everyone being fresher.

  108. Georgexs says:

    You need good enough defensemen. Almost every team has good enough defensemen.

    Coaches can’t play defensemen more minutes than they can handle. Most defensemen learn to handle more minutes through more experience. They get more experience by not failing badly during their early experience.

    There are very, very few 1D’s.

    There are very, very few defensemen who make a statistical difference on the on/off results. That is, there are very, very few difference making defensemen. They are mostly interchangeable. Defensemen who can’t make plays and are easily exploited stick out and are selected out.

    In contrast, there are many difference making forwards, both good and bad. In all the years we had a not NHL capable defense and suspect goaltending, Taylor Hall still won his minutes. And a whole bunch of forwards who are no longer in the league lost their minutes.

    The variance in the on/off performance of defensemen is just not that big. They provide a mostly neutral background against which forwards decide outcomes.

  109. VOR says:

    deardylan:
    Re: SAD and also JetLAG. Body rhythm is out of whack.

    I mentioned to my coach that sometimes I feel sluggish even a week after a long flight: my body and time just isn’t aligned.

    He said “have you put your feet into the soil and walked a few minutes on the earth?”

    I said no I live in apartment and wear shoes with rubber soles.

    He said “your body needs grounding and connection to Mother Earth”

    So I would walk barefoot in local park and sit on the grass for a bit. Everytime I did this – it did the trick.

    Not sure if SAD could also be connected to our lack of grounding and connection to the earth?

    In dark winter in Canada maybe even harder. Wonder if my coach would recommend I jump into hottub and then jump out of it to roll in the snow for a few minutes? Or making a snowman? Throwing snowballs?Snow-angels?

    Anyone others ideas of how you ground/connect to nature in the wintertime?

    I have problems every fall, depression, lethargy, anxiety, and irritability. Four straight years I was on academic probation at the University of Alberta after Fall Semester. I took all the core courses in spring or summer and took as many full year courses as I could. I loved summer school.

    I tried every treatment available. Today mostly I light box and take vitamin D.

    Eventually a psychiatrist suggested I spend as much time as possible outside every winter and to motivate myself I should take up some outdoor winter sports. I took that advice. That decision exposed me to a huge variety of new life experiences but the ones that stuck were winter camping, Biathalon, and competitive snow shoeing. And dogs. I have big, outside, hyperactive snow and cold loving dogs.

    The result is I play in the snow a lot. I mean physically interact with it. The dogs, for example, love to knock me into snow banks. I am not as steady on cross country skis or racing snowshoes as I am on foot. They love snow diving/swimming and want to share the fun with me.

    I have tried the Finnish sauna. Not my thing. Though it works a treat on a hangover.

  110. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here’s the biggest reason why Dmen matter more (or to be more clear: why having Actual Top 4 NHL Dmen is important)

    EDM all players TOI/gm last year:

    PlayerTOI/GP
    Darnell Nurse18.9
    Adam Larsson18.9
    Oscar Klefbom17.0
    Kris Russell16.4
    Connor McDavid16.4
    Matthew Benning15.5
    Brandon Davidson15.1
    Patrick Maroon15.0
    Leon Draisaitl14.4
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins13.8

    Crazy!!!

    Kris Russell playing as much McDavid!!

    Dmen play a ton and you can only effect the game when you’re on the ice.

    Dmen,Dmen,Dmen,Dmen matter.

    Is this 5×5 ice time?

  111. flea says:

    commonfan29,

    The thing is, I don’t think it would matter. Defencemen play longer because their position is less strenuous than playing forward. Yes – if you’re hemmed in, your legs get a workout. But defencemen don’t sprint up the ice as frequently as forwards do.

    I don’t think an extra pairing would make them “fresher” per say. It would just mean everyone plays less, and potentially has more left in the tank at the end of the game. Might help mitigate injuries, but you’d prob see increased forward injuries.

  112. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965,

    You’re welcome

  113. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I suspect 2 of Andersson, Kylington, and Vaalimaki will be making up their bottom pair soon. Stone sucks, I hope they hold onto him for the duration of his deal. I wonder if Brodie’s numbers re-surge playing with Gio.

    Yeah they got some good kids but they are a few years from being top 4 (if they make it)

    I think if Gio hits the cliff they’ll be in trouble for a few years with expensive forwards who will be playing a lot in the dzone

  114. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    I don’t know if I’ve every told you this, and I know you’ ve posted here for a long time but you have one of, if not the best handles on this site.

    Awesome.

  115. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965: Thanks for this.Very interesting. Makes me think 2RD is the lynchpin this year.

    This team and the 2RD hole is why I drink.

    OriginalPouzar: Where does Rasmus fit in?

    If he makes it, it’s on the 3rd pair.

    He isn’t waiver eligible so I doubt he makes the team out of camp, but he might.

    Prout and Stone are both RHD so 3LD is open, but Kulak wasn’t bad there last year but could be passed.

    Stone’s contract to CGY is to as Russell’s is to EDM.

  116. commonfan29 says:

    flea,

    Could easily be, but the experiment would still be interesting – partly for the byproduct of the coach not having a fourth line to throw out there and get nothing done on a regular basis.

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: In 2016/17, Nuge played something like 41% of his even strength minutes against elites – it was top 5 toughest minutes for forwards.

    I think it was more evenly spread among Nuge, Drai and McDavid this past season.

    On my phone but will dig up his TOI vs Elite F’s when I get home

  118. Doug McLachlan says:

    Thanks WG for the d-man analysis.

    I know soooo much depends on a return to health for Sekera and Klefbom but I really liked that d-corps running into the 2017 playoffs. Hopefully they rebound and Nurse and Benning continue to progress.

    I threw this question out to LT yesterday on twitter but since you are comparing Oiler-Flame d-corps it flows. Who gets more on their AAV – Hanifin or Nurse? LT correctly pointed out that the Flames are looking to lock up their new prize to a long-term deal and the Oilers (and I suspect Nurse) are both looking for a bridge but…

    Matt Cane, whose FA AAV predictor has been really fun to watch as the signings come in, has a sizable gap between Noah Hanifin and Darnel Nurse. He is guessing (4x$4.9M for Nurse – though just $3.8M on a 2 year bridge – and 2x $2.3M for Hanifn – though $4.4M on a 6 year). Both are coming off their ELC, both have some offensive pop, both were high picks in their draft year, etc.

    Your guess?

  119. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    Almost every team has good enough defensemen.

    This is demonstrably false.

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: Is this 5×5 ice time?

    Yes

  121. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    Coaches can’t play defensemen more minutes than they can handle.

    They do all the time.

  122. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    There are very, very few defensemen who make a statistical difference on the on/off results. That is, there are very, very few difference making defensemen. They are mostly interchangeable. Defensemen who can’t make plays and are easily exploited stick out and are selected out

    You’ll need a really long post to prove this.

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    In contrast, there are many difference making forwards, both good and bad. In all the years we had a not NHL capable defense and suspect goaltending, Taylor Hall still won his minutes. And a whole bunch of forwards who are no longer in the league lost their minutes.

    Hall is in a class of forwards that has a population of ~20

    I’ll agree that the very elite among the forwards make a huge difference when they are on the ice.

    A couple teams have 2.

    Most teams have 1.

    Some teams have none.

    All teams have 4-5 Dmen who play more 5v5 TOI/gm than their elite forward(s).

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    The variance in the on/off performance of defensemen is just not that big. They provide a mostly neutral background against which forwards decide outcomes.

    I think I understand where you are coming from now.

    When I really started to understand how important Dmen were to a team is when I started to look at their results with each line (usually looking at a C as a proxy for the line)

    Since Dmen play with each line, and each line achieves different CF% and GF% the fact that they play with each line washes out their overall rels to “meh, doesn’t matter much”

  125. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: Firstly, we have the following set for our lines:

    Nuge/Mcdavid/ Drai / Strome /Brodziak

    That’s pretty much it – there will be experimenting to put lines together to start the season.

    Secondly, I’m not even sure Strome at 3C is the best place for him or the team so that should maybe not even be set in stone.

    Thirdly, I hope to have lines (or at least pairs) that the coaching staff can run with for the majority of the season but lines will change throughout the year – injuries, stagnation, spark required, etc.

    Fourthly, I very much hope the coach considers shortening the bench and moving some players around during times when a goal is required. Strome moving up from 3C (and Brodziak moving up to 3C) could very well be a strategy.

    First of all I am not so sure that the coaches pairs thing is the way to go. Granted it does give a degree of continuity but it seems to be somewhat like a three cylinder engine on two cylinders, may run but not all that well.
    Lines work as units of three! If the third person on the line is interchangeable your two constants on the line are never sure of their linemate. Playing against an established line would almost always give that line an advantage. It would seem to be akin to entering a one legged man in a butt kicking contest!
    Players are not intechangeable plug and play! Loading up lines at the end of a game to get a tie may work but botton line is it is an act of desperation!

  126. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Quality of linemates matters more….

    Strome is not in Nuge’s league, Nuge is much more reliable defensively, and has a boat load more hockey sense,something that cannot be taught. Strome proved on the island that he is much more useful as a centre, he was tried on wing last year and showed he is more useful as a centre,the experimenting is over,leave him where he is at 3 c.

  127. VOR says:

    –hudson–:
    The more relevant term for speed seems to be “playing fast”.Not only how fast the puck carrier skates but how quickly decisions are made, how clean the execution is, etc.What data do we need to extract players ability in the other areas besides skating speed?

    You could parse the time between shot attempts against with shots for and determine sets of players who could transition the most quickly. But then you’d also have to test for significance, study correlation and try to attribute the success to individual players.Sportlogiq I imagine would have little trouble creating this dataset if they wanted to.

    By all accounts Bouchard is more like a Larry Murphy than a Paul Coffey so we hope the Oilers know how to make use of him.By memory the Maple Leafs mishandled Murphy, gave him away for free, then he took off again in Detroit.Those Red Wings teams in the 90s probably met the definition of playing fast while employing many players with lead feet.

    I think we need to enrich and broaden our understanding of skating as a first step to answering your question.

    I keep saying here that skating is a multi-dimensional skill.

    One dimension is awareness. Is the player an aware skater?

    This is partly a biomechanical question. Is their head up at all times? Are their eyes tracking the play all over the ice? You can see this easily without any fancy equipment.

    It is partly a psychological question. What are they thinking about as they skate? This requires off ice testing to evaluate.

    There is also a neurobiological component. How well are they processing game state and environmental data as they skate? Can they spot the moment, for example, when accelerating will open up a hole? Processing times can be measured off the ice but the impact they have on the game can be seen by any astute observer.

    Lastly can the skater make smart decisions near their physical limits. When their body is demanding huge amounts of oxygen does their brain still work. This can be measured on and off the ice.

    Aware skating, particularly the ability to process input data while performing near your maximum physical capacity, is a key to fast play. Not everyone can skate flat out and still take in and process data from their surroundings. Never mind make good decisions with that data.

    So it isn’t if you are fast or slow. It is how well your cognitive capacities hold up when your physical capacities are being challenged.

    In a nutshell, Evan Bouchard is an aware skater. Late in a game, skating nearly as fast as he can, Evan Bouchard can see the ice well enough and think well enough to make an outstanding play.

    Darnell Nurse is not an aware skater.

    Can you learn to be better at all aspects of aware skating? Absolutely.

    Can you become Larry Murphy? Probably not.

    Can we measure and quantify awareness? Again the answer is absolutely.

  128. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    I don’t know if I’ve every told you this, and I know you’ ve posted here for a long time but you have one of, if not the best handles on this site.

    Awesome.

    Thank you WG

    Someone commented on it a few weeks ago. I told the story of me meeting Smid last summer outside a bar in Calgary. Super nice guy, I imagine the ladies loved him.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here’s the biggest reason why Dmen matter more (or to be more clear: why having Actual Top 4 NHL Dmen is important)

    EDM all players TOI/gm last year:

    PlayerTOI/GP
    Darnell Nurse18.9
    Adam Larsson18.9
    Oscar Klefbom17.0
    Kris Russell16.4
    Connor McDavid16.4
    Matthew Benning15.5
    Brandon Davidson15.1
    Patrick Maroon15.0
    Leon Draisaitl14.4
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins13.8

    Crazy!!!

    Kris Russell playing as much McDavid!!

    Dmen play a ton and you can only effect the game when you’re on the ice.

    Dmen,Dmen,Dmen,Dmen matter.

    To be clear, that’s 5 on 5 TOI/G, right?

    Edit: Sorry, I see, asked and answered.

    For all situations TOI/G, McDavid was second to Klefbom.

    What makes this even more interesting is that, McDavid is down the list of Oilers at 5 on 5 TOI/G but led the NHL forwards in that area.

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Strome is not in Nuge’s league, Nuge is much more reliable defensively, and has a boat load more hockey sense,something that cannot be taught. Strome proved on the island that he is much more useful as a centre, he was tried on wing last year and showed he is more useful as a centre,the experimenting is over,leave him where he is at 3 c.

    I never said anything about Strome being in Nuge’s league – my statement was in response to a post that quality of opponents matters.

    Strome’s best season on the Island was as a winger.

    Number’s show that the Oilers had their most success last year when Strome was playing as a winger (and the metrics for both Drai and McDavid were better with Strome than without).

    To say that he is more useful as a center is a very arguable statement.

  131. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: To be clear, that’s 5 on 5 TOI/G, right?

    Edit: Sorry, I see, asked and answered.

    For all situations TOI/G, McDavid was second to Klefbom.

    What makes this even more interesting is that, McDavid is down the list of Oilers at 5 on 5 TOI/G but led the NHL forwards in that area.

    Dmen play a lot 5v5

    Its the same on every team.

    Its the reason LT says every year that the #7 Dman will play more than most forwards.

    Its because its true.

  132. Jaxon says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This team and the 2RD hole is why I drink.

    If he makes it, it’s on the 3rd pair.

    He isn’t waiver eligible so I doubt he makes the team out of camp, but he might.

    Prout and Stone are both RHD so 3LD is open, but Kulak wasn’t bad there last year but could be passed.

    Stone’s contract to CGY is to as Russell’s is to EDM.

    I think I could dig up my comments and posts from 2011 or 12 over at Cooper N Blue that were searching for young right handed D and proposing deadline trades for young unproven players with high potential for our veterans. I was attacked for going after magic beans because everyone wanted to win now with their real NHL players. Those young RHD would come in useful about now. Then again, using a time machine to change anything before the McDavid lottery would be insanity.

  133. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    Almost every team has good enough defensemen.

    This is demonstrably false.

    Maybe. Demonstrate away.

    It’ll be good to see your criteria for evaluating defensemen.

    I go with how many minutes they play, what’s the score in the minutes they play, what’s the score in the minutes they don’t play. Then I compare them to similar others based on where they’re at in their career.

    Teams may not have enough defensemen to cover all of their TOI spots. It’s bound to happen. I guess. That’s sort of a buy in.

    I’d like to see who you don’t like. Because I think you like Demers, Hamonic, Hamilton, Carlo, Hjalmarsson, etc. Which is, let’s see…

  134. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, that is something to potentially explore. If Strome is to see time in the top 6, it would make sense for Broziak to move up and fill in at 3C and Kharia at 4C – at least I think it would make sense.

    Nuge/McDavid/Puljujarvi
    Lucic/Drai/Strome
    Aberg/Broziak/Kassian (Rattie)
    Caggulia/Kharia/Rattie (Kassian)

    I’m not sure Rattie is an NHL player not playing with 97 though.

    For me balancing speed and having some pushback on each line or at least size, and enough defensive awareness is key. Without speed they don’t get up the ice – nobody an push D gaps back so they stack up the N zone.

    I think Lucic can play Maroon’s role. Go to the net, let Connor and Nuge get the puck up the ice. Be ready to use the straight line speed to get back. And if a change is needed make sure it’s timed properly, line changes were really bad IMO last season.

    Lucic McD Nuge (Nuge has the skill to do it methinks)
    Rieder Drai JP (Rieder has to be good 2 ways)
    Aberg Strome ?
    Khaira Brodziak ?

    Poor Mr Cagguila and Mr Rattie I can’t find a place for no matter how I look at it if winning is a priority.

    Klef Larsson
    Nurse Benning
    Sekera Russell

    I’d start like that and give it time, as that is how I intend to go.

  135. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    Coaches can’t play defensemen more minutes than they can handle.

    They do all the time.

    Yes, they do. How many minutes a night should McLellan have played Klefbom given Klef’s numbers to that date? 24?

  136. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    There are very, very few defensemen who make a statistical difference on the on/off results. That is, there are very, very few difference making defensemen. They are mostly interchangeable. Defensemen who can’t make plays and are easily exploited stick out and are selected out

    You’ll need a really long post to prove this.

    Not that long. Why don’t we put together a list of difference making defensemen? I’ll start.

    Lidstrom
    Doughty
    Hedman
    Suter
    Giordano

  137. VOR says:

    Georgesx and Woodguy v 2.0,

    Isn’t the correct question which team’s D and forwards work the best together?

    And does that correlate with winning hockey games?

    While your argument is fascinating intellectually It misses the irrefutable fact that hockey is a team game.

    You also seem to be unaware of the possibility that the answer to which is more important Fs or D could be different for different teams. The answer could also change depending on game state, regular season or playoffs and for that matter under the influence of score effects.

  138. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    In contrast, there are many difference making forwards, both good and bad. In all the years we had a not NHL capable defense and suspect goaltending, Taylor Hall still won his minutes. And a whole bunch of forwards who are no longer in the league lost their minutes.

    Hall is in a class of forwards that has a population of ~20

    I’ll agree that the very elite among the forwards make a huge difference when they are on the ice.

    A couple teams have 2.

    Most teams have 1.

    Some teams have none.

    All teams have 4-5 Dmen who play more 5v5 TOI/gm than their elite forward(s).

    Is this how you get to defensemen are more important? Comparing TOI of forwards and defensemen?

  139. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    The variance in the on/off performance of defensemen is just not that big. They provide a mostly neutral background against which forwards decide outcomes.

    I think I understand where you are coming from now.

    When I really started to understand how important Dmen were to a team is when I started to look at their results with each line (usually looking at a C as a proxy for the line)

    Since Dmen play with each line, and each line achieves different CF% and GF% the fact that they play with each line washes out their overall rels to “meh, doesn’t matter much”

    It’s really important you revisit your thinking here. Because, the way you’ve explained it, this is not where you really started to understand. You took a set of data, broke it into smaller sets on a variable, observed the variance, and failed to ask if the variance could be attributed to the variable.

  140. Professor Q says:

    King George 10.5, adding to the confusion and intellectual hockey discourse and debate with Woodguy v2.0.

    This is a great Friday night!

    So, defencemen are both important and unimportant at the same time, influential and inconsequential to Goals and TOI, in both of your views.

    Schrödinger’s Blueliner.

  141. Pescador says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Thank you WG

    Someone commented on it a few weeks ago. I told the story of me meeting Smid last summer outside a bar in Calgary. Super nice guy, I imagine the ladies loved him.

    He married now,
    LadyloveSmid

  142. Wilde says:

    I think defensemen seem very, very thresholdy.

    The most potent, poisonous action you can take to a group of 4 NHL players is complete the quintet with a non-NHL defenseman.

    The frequency and danger of the chances given up is unreal and has no remedy. If the ‘NHL’ hoop isn’t jumped through in the adage “NHL defencemen don’t affect on-ice save percentage” then the floor becomes false and everything sets on fire.

    Take Ethan Bear last year. When Bear was on the ice every forward trio placed against him had the results of an uber-first line. Connor McDavid had the highest rate of NaturalStatTrick’s claimed high danger chances for, his rate rounds up to 16 per hour from not far away.

    When Bear was on the ice, his unit gave up 20 and a half. Three and a half actual goals. Pushing a goal against every 15 minutes.

    (I like Ethan Bear as a prospect, just using him as an example)

  143. Ryan says:

    Georgexs: It’s really important you revisit your thinking here. Because, the way you’ve explained it, this is not where you really started to understand. You took a set of data, broke it into smaller sets on a variable, observed the variance, and failed to ask if the variance could be attributed to the variable.

    If I were conducting a retrospective study using data from EMR’s in which I was looking for risk factors for osteoarthris of the knee and I did an analysis using the categorical variables of normal bmi, overweight and obese, would this be somewhat analogous to what woodguy’s doing? Granted, I would probably use binomial logistic regression to see if these differences were statistically significant.

    The “binning of competition” data that some math nerds have frowned upon is simply a way of creating categorical data. In my analogy, it’s analogous to BMI.

    The DFF and quality of comp data Woodguy uses are independent data sets. In this instance the DFF only differs from a diagnosis in that it’s a continuous rather than categorical variable.

  144. Wilde says:

    Speaking of NHL defensemen, I’d like to take this moment to utter into the ether that Yohann Auvitu is a better 3LD than at least 20 NHL teams will dress at that position in the 2018-19 season.

  145. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tom Wilson – 6 X $5.156M.

    Yes, that Tom Wilson.

  146. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Team systems and buy in have to be factored in as well to understand individual performance.

    This is why vet teams with stable rosters repeat performance yearly. And why Vegas performed above expectations and sre prime for regression to their talent level. There is also behind closed door aspects to this.

    IMO it’s also why coaches seem to do unsmrt things. There is a lot to factor in. The venerable Vic Ferrari said he didn’t think teams were stupid, and I don’t think that was said to get hired.

  147. Georgexs says:

    VOR:
    Georgesx and Woodguy v 2.0,

    Isn’t the correct question which team’s D and forwards work the best together?

    And does that correlate with winning hockey games?

    While your argument is fascinating intellectually It misses the irrefutable fact that hockey is a team game.

    You also seem to be unaware of the possibility that the answer to which is more important Fs or D could be different for different teams. The answer could also change depending on game state, regular season or playoffs and for that matter under the influence of score effects.

    How would you measure work the best together?

    Hockey is very much a team game. Not sure where either of us has missed that point.

    I’m arguing forwards are more important than defensemen for team success. WG is arguing the other side. Different teams could pursue different strategies. It seems a stretch to say we’re unaware that teams do things that run against each of our positions.

    As for in game and in season adjustments, not sure how much room there is for that. Bets have been placed. You’d have to replace the gamblers to see different bets.

  148. Georgexs says:

    Ryan: If I were conducting a retrospective study using data from EMR’s in which I was looking for risk factors for osteoarthris of the knee and I did an analysis using the categorical variables of normal bmi, overweight and obese, would this be somewhat analogous to what woodguy’s doing? Granted, I would probably use binomial logistic regression to see if these differences were statistically significant.

    The “binning of competition” data that some math nerds have frowned upon is simply a way of creating categorical data. In my analogy, it’s analogous to BMI.

    The DFF and quality of comp data Woodguy uses are independent data sets. In this instance the DFF only differs from a diagnosis in that it’s a continuous rather than categorical variable.

    I did this using aggregate data, not event data. I’ve been meaning to fully parse the nhl play by play and shift chart files. Haven’t gotten around to it. But, yes, I’d probably try ridge regression with shots as the records and goals as the binomial response and players as the categorical explanatory variables. I’d expect to find that the coefficients for nearly all defensemen to be insignificant, based on what I’ve seen so far. Because the on/off results for defensemen rarely reach the standard of significance. I won’t speak for WG as far as what he’s doing.

  149. VOR says:

    Georgexs: How would you measure work the best together?

    Hockey is very much a team game. Not sure where either of us has missed that point.

    I’m arguing forwards are more important than defensemen for team success. WG is arguing the other side. Different teams could pursue different strategies. It seems a stretch to say we’re unaware that teams do things that run against each of our positions.

    As for in game and in season adjustments, not sure how much room there is for that. Bets have been placed. You’d have to replace the gamblers to see different bets.

    I would make a counter bet. That neither of you can prove that you are right because the value of defencemen and forwards is intrinsically tied to their ability to work together.

    In case you miss my point. I am accusing you both of the logical flaw of reducto absurdum. You are both trying to divide the indivisible.

    Don’t get me wrong it is great fun to read. So please continue.

  150. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Goals Against/60 McDavid Off
    16/17 2.05
    17/18 2.59
    Almost an identical drop as McDavid. (0.56 & 0.54)
    This is all pointing to “Dcorps & Goalie” driving the GA/60 up.

    It’s also pointing to the switch in own-zone structure.

    You can’t play man with an excess in slow-stepping forwards unless you teach it really, really well.

    They didn’t so they couldn’t.

  151. Georgexs says:

    Wilde:
    I think defensemen seem very, very thresholdy.

    The most potent, poisonous action you can take to a group of 4 NHL players is complete the quintet with a non-NHL defenseman.

    The frequency and danger of the chances given up is unreal and has no remedy. If the ‘NHL’ hoop isn’t jumped through in the adage “NHL defencemen don’t affect on-ice save percentage” then the floor becomes false and everything sets on fire.

    Take Ethan Bear last year. When Bear was on the ice every forward trio placed against him had the results of an uber-first line. Connor McDavid had the highest rate of NaturalStatTrick’s claimed high danger chances for, his rate rounds up to 16 per hour from not far away.

    When Bear was on the ice, his unit gave up 20 and a half. Three and a half actual goals. Pushing a goal against every 15 minutes.

    (I like Ethan Bear as a prospect, just using him as an example)

    Great way of putting it.

    Every young player trying to break in has to meet a threshold of performance. Otherwise they’re easy marks for the vets.

    Once a defenseman meets the threshold, they have a development period in which they can improve and take on the physical and mental demands of more minutes, that is, reach the next threshold. A good enough defense has all players playing at their level of competence. As WG says, they mess with the opposition sorties and get the puck to the forwards.

    As WG also points out, coaches make the mistake of playing a defenseman beyond his proven threshold. They usually pay for this mistake in goals and losses. So, unless they have no other options, they adjust too.

  152. Georgexs says:

    Wilde:
    Speaking of NHL defensemen, I’d like to take this moment to utter into the ether that Yohann Auvitu is a better 3LD than at least 20 NHL teams will dress at that position in the 2018-19 season.

    I agree. Auvitu is worth the bet no GM appears willing to make.

  153. Wilde says:

    The single largest driver of the 5v5 GA problem was not defensemen underperforming or injury.

    It was the tactical decisions and implementation thereof by the coaching staff.

  154. Georgexs says:

    VOR: I would make a counter bet. That neither of you can prove that you are right because the value ofdefencemen and forwards is intrinsically tied to their ability to work together.

    In case you miss my point. I am accusing you both of the logical flaw of reducto absurdum. You are both trying to divide the indivisible.

    Don’t get me wrong it is great fun to read. So please continue.

    Really not sure what’s going on.

    In looking at the data, I’ve observed that a difference making forward is much more likely than a difference making defenseman. Results, as measured by goals, follow forwards. Over many seasons. (Because goals need lots of data.) They are much less likely to follow defensemen.

    The work together thing is like pointing out hey guys you do know hockey is played with sticks, right?

  155. Georgexs says:

    Wilde:
    The single largest driver of the 5v5 GA problem was not defensemen underperforming or injury.

    It was the tactical decisions and implementation thereof by the coaching staff.

    Preach.

    When the coaches do their job so badly, it’s very hard to get a read on players. I’ve only witnessed this with the Oilers. I assume it happens all over. So much luck involved for some players to catch on.

  156. VOR says:

    Georgexs: How would you measure work the best together?

    Hockey is very much a team game. Not sure where either of us has missed that point.

    I’m arguing forwards are more important than defensemen for team success. WG is arguing the other side. Different teams could pursue different strategies. It seems a stretch to say we’re unaware that teams do things that run against each of our positions.

    As for in game and in season adjustments, not sure how much room there is for that. Bets have been placed. You’d have to replace the gamblers to see different bets.

    I’d use an efficiency measure to determine best together. We use them all the time in basketball. The one Hudson proposes above is a good place to start. As are controlled exits from your own end and controlled entries at the other end.

    I’d predict there is an algorithm that links the three events that would give a very good proxy of unit efficiency.

    Then I’d see if that correlated with winning hockey games. Hudson is right Spotrslogiq is probably capable of knocking out a data base like he proposes with ease and I know they already collect zone exit and entry data by player and unit.

    That is of course just off the top of my head. I’d need to think about it.

  157. Georgexs says:

    VOR,

    So working together is CF% then?

  158. Wilde says:

    To be clear, I think playing man at 5v5 and a hyper-aggressive wedge+1 4v5 is the ideal way to play hockey in the current NHL.

    You have to have the personnel to execute it and the teachers to teach it, though, and maybe most importantly you cannot be benching players for mistakes as a diciplinary measure and absolving ownership of the team’s failures to the media. There has to be zero fear and an ultimate level of trust in your teammates, including your goaltender.

  159. ashley says:

    There was much concern about Eberle’s foot speed in his years after draft. It was partly why he dropped to where he was drafted. It’s hard to tell until we see them play a game in the NHL. Time will tell with Bouchard.

  160. Scungilli Slushy says:

    WILDE
    GEORGEXS

    Love your passion for analyzing.

    We’ve been down this road before over years, several times. Perhaps you were involved under different pseudonyms.

    The reason teams and those involved push back on blog stats is that currently there is simply a lack of access to data, they know that. What those bloggers with the math background can do is necessarily limited. They (teams) have more data. Many don’t know how to use it perhaps, but many do.

    It’s not at a point where there is enough data to be definitive for us. At least without a massive effort by bloggers to track, which some are doing, but we’re talking thousands of hours league wide. It isn’t happening.

    So what WG is doing makes sense to me. Trying to find the global parameters that seem to have relevance in macro detail.

    There currently isn’t micro detail that is informed by enough data to know if it’s whole. So the debates go on back and forth, no success in nailing down a metric that stands yet without significant limitations.

    I enjoy reading what you come up with, it’s important and interesting pushing the envelope, just my 2c.

  161. Wilde says:

    Georgexs: I agree. Auvitu is worth the bet no GM appears willing to make.

    It’s half Auvitu being pretty damn good, and half that there’s an /abundance/ of defencemen who are not quite reliable enough in coverage to play in the top four, but give you so much more elsewhere that they can play 3rd pairing, yet good, successful teams would rather play guys that literally do none of those things like Yannick Weber and Dan Girardi and Dion Phaneuf.

  162. Wilde says:

    By the way, do we know any sites that have shift charts with actual time stamps?

  163. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ashley:
    There was much concern about Eberle’s foot speed in his years after draft.It was partly why he dropped to where he was drafted.It’s hard to tell until we see them play a game in the NHL.Time will tell with Bouchard.

    And Eberle was barely a PPG scorer in junior. Bouchard as a D was a far better point producer, and also not on a strong team. I would bet if not for the ‘Boys’ wrong headedness because Eberle’s WJC heroics Ebs would have dropped to 2nd round like McLeod did.

  164. VOR says:

    Georgexs:
    VOR,

    So working together is CF% then?

    None of the metrics I mentioned are directly linked to Corsi never mind Corsi for percentage. They are all about transitioning the puck. Corsi is based on shots. But you know that.

    You probably also know synergy is rapidly replacing reduction in sports analytics. This is because the usefulness of highly reduced concepts and isolationist regressions for either coaches or GMs is nearly zero. I can actually demonstrate this is true for your idea of difference makers.

    The following brilliant paper comes at the same idea but goes even further isolating the player from teammates completely. It is like what you are proposing but on steroids.

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1510.02172.pdf

    From all that tremendous math they learned Peter Forsberg, Joe Thorton, Pavel Datysuk, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin can really impact a season but so can Mark Streit and Lubomir Visnovsky and Dom Hasek as measured by real +/- (isolated GF% if you like). But when they did the same analysis with Corsi For % they got totally different results. Oh they also learned Jack Johnson is terrible. A genuine negative difference maker.

    And Ryan Nugent Hopkins was once value for money.

    They also learned that their own metrics didn’t give the same result. Oh and the results weren’t stable from year to year. But at least salary follows real isolated +/-. Which of course means GMs gain no advantage from knowing this since it is already baked in.

    So let’s see, the most sophisticated attempt ever undertaken to establish the true difference makers led to diddly squat of value. Even the authors start discussing synergistic approaches as they acknowledge all their work was for nought.

    I have dozens of papers I can site that show dividing hockey up into smaller chunks adds little to no new knowledge. Eventually you and the other reducers will realize the problem isn’t the choice of chunk or of statistical tool. Nope the problem is much as we wish it so hockey doesn’t reduce.

  165. VOR says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    WILDE
    GEORGEXS

    Love your passion for analyzing.

    We’ve been down this road before over years, several times. Perhaps you were involved under different pseudonyms.

    The reason teams and those involved push back on blog stats is that currently there is simply a lack of access to data, they know that. What those bloggers with the math background can do is necessarily limited. They (teams) have more data. Many don’t know how to use it perhaps, but many do.

    It’s not at a point where there is enough data to be definitive for us. At least without a massive effort by bloggers to track, which some are doing, but we’re talking thousands of hours league wide. It isn’t happening.

    So what WG is doing makes sense to me. Trying to find the global parameters that seem to have relevance in macro detail.

    There currently isn’t micro detail that is informed by enough data to know if it’s whole. So the debates go on back and forth, no success in nailing down a metric that stands yet without significant limitations.

    I enjoy reading what you come up with, it’s important and interesting pushing the envelope, just my 2c.

    I would second your esteem for Georges and Woodguy’s passion for analysis.

    My problem is I think they need to spend some time on integrative models and synergistic metrics.

    This is true of hockey analytics as a discipline. It is highly slanted towards the reductionist. Not to mention there has been a near total dependence on linear regression as the analytic tool of choice despite its well understood weaknesses.

    I think your argument that more data would make it possible to reduce hockey and produce useful stats is exactly backward. Data smog is a very real phenomenon. Even if the signal to noise ratio remained constant (and it wouldn’t) the total noise of big data sets can make analysis nearly impossible (see paper I just linked). As the amount of noise relative to signal rises it truly becomes impossible.

  166. BONE207 says:

    dustrock,

    I felt I wasn’t as productive at work, was drinking more than usual.

    I found this to be the case when I went for liquid lunches. Summer time Fridays this should be mandatory.

  167. Georgexs says:

    Wilde:
    By the way, do we know any sites that have shift charts with actual time stamps?

    ?

    nhl.com

    here’s an example:

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/rest/shiftcharts?cayenneExp=gameId=2011020001

  168. digger50 says:

    deardylan:
    Re: SAD and also JetLAG. Body rhythm is out of whack.

    I mentioned to my coach that sometimes I feel sluggish even a week after a long flight: my body and time just isn’t aligned.

    He said “have you put your feet into the soil and walked a few minutes on the earth?”

    I said no I live in apartment and wear shoes with rubber soles.

    He said “your body needs grounding and connection to Mother Earth”

    So I would walk barefoot in local park and sit on the grass for a bit. Everytime I did this – it did the trick.

    Not sure if SAD could also be connected to our lack of grounding and connection to the earth?

    In dark winter in Canada maybe even harder. Wonder if my coach would recommend I jump into hottub and then jump out of it to roll in the snow for a few minutes? Or making a snowman? Throwing snowballs?Snow-angels?

    Anyone others ideas of how you ground/connect to nature in the wintertime?

    In northern Alberta, snowmobiling is fun.

    Go as fast as you can until you see God, then grab for the brake.

    That will get you going.

  169. Georgexs says:

    VOR: None of the metrics I mentioned are directly linked to Corsi never mind Corsi for percentage. They are all about transitioning the puck. Corsi is based on shots. But you know that.

    You probably also know synergy is rapidly replacing reduction in sports analytics. This is because the usefulness of highly reduced concepts and isolationist regressions for either coaches or GMs is nearly zero. I can actually demonstrate this is true for your idea of difference makers.

    The following brilliant paper comes at the same idea but goes even further isolating the player from teammates completely. It is like what you are proposing but on steroids.

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1510.02172.pdf

    From all that tremendous math they learned Peter Forsberg, Joe Thorton, Pavel Datysuk, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin can really impact a season but so can Mark Streit and Lubomir Visnovsky and Dom Hasek as measured by real +/- (isolated GF% if you like). But when they did the same analysis with Corsi For % they got totally different results. Oh they also learned Jack Johnson is terrible. A genuine negative difference maker.

    And Ryan Nugent Hopkins was once value for money.

    They also learned that their own metrics didn’t give the same result. Oh and the results weren’t stable from year to year. But at least salary follows real isolated +/-. Which of course means GMs gain no advantage from knowing this since it is already baked in.

    So let’s see, the most sophisticated attempt ever undertaken to establish the true difference makers led to diddly squat of value. Even the authors start discussing synergistic approaches as they acknowledge all their work was for nought.

    I have dozens of papers I can site that show dividing hockey up into smaller chunks adds little to no new knowledge. Eventually you and the other reducers will realize the problem isn’t the choice of chunk or of statistical tool. Nope the problem is much as we wish it so hockey doesn’t reduce.

    I notice you use “brilliant” rather liberally. I’ve seen you use it for work done by folks who clearly lacked a background in statistical analysis. This time, however, the authors are the real deal.

    Is this how they acknowledge their work was for nought?

    “Regardless of these and other possible complex extensions, we argue strongly that our simple L1 penalized logistic regression has much to recommend it. The model is very simple to interpret and relies upon minimal restrictive assumptions on the process of a hockey game. Our measures are also much faster to compute than any of the alternatives. These qualities make sophisticated real-time analysis of player effects possible as games and seasons progress.”

    I want to thank you for the link though. This is what I was telling Ryan I would try if I ever get around to parsing the JSON files off of nhl.com, right down to the actual techniques they employed. The only thing they didn’t do that I would try is to use the model in a predictive capacity rather than just use it retrospectively. They decided to test their metric by correlation with salary (market value). Very academic choice to make.

    But the authors are legit. Not sure why you think they failed or why you think they think they failed. Maybe it’s the artist in you. Your criticism is not at all technical, more Sorrows of Young Werther.

  170. Georgexs says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    “Trying to find the global parameters that seem to have relevance in macro detail.”

    If this is what WG is doing, I’m glad it makes sense to one of us.

  171. Wilde says:

    Georgexs: ?

    nhl.com

    here’s an example:

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/rest/shiftcharts?cayenneExp=gameId=2011020001

    I was talking about a visuallisation

  172. Georgexs says:

    Wilde: I was talking about a visuallisation

    http://shiftchart.com/

  173. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: And Eberle was barely a PPG scorer in junior. Bouchard as a D was a far better point producer, and also not on a strong team. I would bet if not for the ‘Boys’ wrong headedness because Eberle’s WJC heroics Ebs would have dropped to 2nd round like McLeod did.

    I don’t think Eberle played in the World Juniors (U-20s) until after he was drafted. He played in the U-18s but not the main U-20s. Not many on the Canadian team are undrafted.

  174. Wilde says:

    Georgexs: http://shiftchart.com/

    gracias for this and your other efforts this thread

  175. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: It’s also pointing to the switch in own-zone structure.

    You can’t play man with an excess in slow-stepping forwards unless you teach it really, really well.

    They didn’t so they couldn’t.

    Did they switch from 16/17 to 17/18?

  176. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs: Maybe. Demonstrate away.

    It’ll be good to see your criteria for evaluating defensemen.

    I go with how many minutes they play, what’s the score in the minutes they play, what’s the score in the minutes they don’t play. Then I compare them to similar others based on where they’re at in their career.

    Teams may not have enough defensemen to cover all of their TOI spots. It’s bound to happen. I guess. That’s sort of a buy in.

    I’d like to see who you don’t like. Because I think you like Demers, Hamonic, Hamilton, Carlo, Hjalmarsson, etc. Which is, let’s see…

    I’ll try to put something together this weekend. Not sure if I’ll have enough time, but I’ll start.

    Might put it on my blog.

  177. VOR says:

    Georgexs: I notice you use “brilliant” rather liberally. I’ve seen you use it for work done by folks who clearly lacked a background in statistical analysis. This time, however, the authors are the real deal.

    Is this how they acknowledge their work was for nought?

    “Regardless of these and other possible complex extensions, we argue strongly that our simple L1 penalized logistic regression has much to recommend it. The model is very simple to interpret and relies upon minimal restrictive assumptions on the process of a hockey game. Our measures are also much faster to compute than any of the alternatives. These qualities make sophisticated real-time analysis of player effects possible as games and seasons progress.”

    I want to thank you for the link though. This is what I was telling Ryan I would try if I ever get around to parsing the JSON files off of nhl.com, right down to the actual techniques they employed. The only thing they didn’t do that I would try is to use the model in a predictive capacity rather than just use it retrospectively. They decided to test their metric by correlation with salary (market value). Very academic choice to make.

    But the authors are legit. Not sure why you think they failed or why you think they think they failed. Maybe it’s the artist in you. Your criticism is not at all technical, more Sorrows of Young Werther.

    I think they failed because there is nothing n this paper (beyond the method itself and the relationship with salaries both of which I will return to in a moment) that you can’t know with the naked eye or some very simple stats. I and millions of other people could tell you Joe Thorton had some good years, that Dom Hasek even in his twilight years was the Dominator, that Pavel Datysuk was a serious out scorer etc.

    Ask yourself, does this paper enrich your understanding of hockey? It just muddies the waters. The authors don’t even attempt to explain why using Corsi and Goals gives two totally different lists. They also gloss over the fact that what is they call them PMP and PFP give different results, choosing once again to not explain why

    There is nothing here of any use to hockey professionals either. It doesn’t help fans, the analytics community, or hockey pros and it certainly doesn’t illuminate the game.

    This leaves us with the possibility the method itself will help someone else do something useful in the future. The method is explained in great detail and in my opinion considerable clarity. So it has value as a tool for future researchers. But that isn’t the stated goal of the paper. We are supposed to be seeing the creation of a new stat. We aren’t.

    This in part is because it is a bit of work to prepare full rankings and the rankings don’t add value as I have said above. They add data not knowledge.

    But the entire section where they discuss decisions trees and other non-regression tools tells you why it hasn’t been adopted hockey analytics has moved on from regressions. They produce far too many false positive relationships.

    The relationship of their metric to salaries is almost certainly an example. GMs intuit this metric they created or it’s a false positive. Smart GMs or false positive. I know which I pick.

    I would suggest you see how often this paper appears in SCI. For those of you following at home Scientific Citation Index is how scientists keep score.

    Nothing arty about it. Not that, despite your defensive snarkiness, there would be anything wrong with that. Nope years in Socratic graduate seminars dedicated to reading scientific papers.

  178. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Did they switch from 16/17 to 17/18?

    Yes

  179. Georgexs says:

    VOR: I think they failed because there is nothing n this paper (beyond the method itself and the relationship with salaries both of which I will return to in a moment) that you can’t know with the naked eye or some very simple stats. I and millions of other people could tell you Joe Thorton had some good years, that Dom Hasek even in his twilight years was the Dominator, that Pavel Datysuk was a serious out scorer etc.

    Ask yourself, does this paper enrich your understanding of hockey? It just muddies the waters. The authors don’t even attempt to explain why using Corsi and Goals gives two totally different lists. They also gloss over the fact that what is they call them PMP and PFP give different results, choosing once again to not explain why

    There is nothing here of any use to hockey professionals either. It doesn’t help fans, the analytics community, or hockey pros and it certainly doesn’t illuminate the game.

    This leaves us with the possibility the method itself will help someone else do something useful in the future. The method is explained in great detail and in my opinion considerable clarity. So it has value as a tool for future researchers. But that isn’t the stated goal of the paper. We are supposed to be seeing the creation of a new stat. We aren’t.

    This in part is because it is a bit of work to prepare full rankings and the rankings don’t add value as I have said above. They add data not knowledge.

    But the entire section where they discuss decisions trees and other non-regression tools tells you why it hasn’t been adopted hockey analytics has moved on from regressions. They produce far too many false positive relationships.

    The relationship of their metric to salaries is almost certainly an example. GMs intuit this metric they created or it’s a false positive. Smart GMs or false positive. I know which I pick.

    I would suggest you see how often this paper appears in SCI. For those of you following at home Scientific Citation Index is how scientists keep score.

    Nothing arty about it. Not that, despite your defensive snarkiness, there would be anything wrong with that. Nope years in Socratic graduate seminars dedicated to reading scientific papers.

    1. The paper looks at assessing a player’s contribution to winning. It controls for the contribution for the players he plays with and for situation (even strength, PP, PK). The Rel numbers you see on analytics sites don’t do this. The RelTGF% stat that WG uses doesn’t really do this either. It’s an ad hoc approach and it has trouble dealing with the multicollinearity that pops up when players play together a lot. The technique the authors are using is standard stats: determine the influence of one variable while controlling for the influence of other variables.

    2. They use penalized logistic regression because the input matrix is sparse and highly collinear. I don’t know what you mean by hockey analytics has moved on from regressions. I don’t know the community that well. But I know how to assess whether a person has some training in statistical techniques. And I also know that penalized regression models are used extensively in machine learning. They’re effective, they’re interpretable, they’re easy to train. When combined with ensemble methods, they’re quite powerful. Linear models are simply a useful part of the machine learning toolkit.

    3. You say they add data not knowledge. But you keep talking about just the players listed in the paper. Have you downloaded their repository from git and looked at their full dataset? There’s more there than Forsberg and Dom are really good. They’ve done quite a lot of work and provided a good foundation for anyone who wants to build on their ideas. Then, because they’re academics with real research interests, they moved on. I don’t know why you’re so harsh after calling the paper brilliant. But you’ve called a whole bunch of guys brilliant, so maybe that word means something different to you.

    4. They discuss random forests but they were working on a way to retrospectively rank players by their individual contribution to winning. They weren’t working on a supervised learning problem. They couldn’t have used random forests for the problem they were working on because they didn’t frame the problem with prediction in mind.

    5. You seem to feel it’s important to add understanding, not data. But you also keep going on about the limits of linear models and false positives. Random forests may produce better predictions. So may convolutional neural networks. But these models are basically opaque. Researchers are working on extracting the patterns embedded in their structure. But it’s complex work. If you want to increase understanding, you want simple, interpretable linear models.

    6. Smart GMs or false positive. Are those the only two choices? When you say false positive, do you mean the model has incorrectly identified a bad player as a good player or that it has identified a good player as a bad player? And are you saying in situations where the predicted player value differs from the salary awarded by GMs, you pick GMs because they’re smart? Before I get defensive and snarky, I just want to make sure this is your thinking here.

    7. As for that last paragraph, it’s my experience that while very, very few people are very, very good at many different things, lots of people feel confident in their understanding of many, many different things. it’s a conundrum.

  180. VOR says:

    Georgexs: 1. The paper looks at assessing a player’s contribution to winning. It controls for the contribution for the players he plays with and for situation (even strength, PP, PK). The Rel numbers you see on analytics sites don’t do this. The RelTGF% stat that WG uses doesn’t really do this either. It’s an ad hoc approach and it has trouble dealing with the multicollinearity that pops up when players play together a lot. The technique the authors are using is standard stats: determine the influence of one variable while controlling for the influence of other variables.

    2. They use penalized logistic regression because the input matrix is sparse and highly collinear. I don’t know what you mean by hockey analytics has moved on from regressions. I don’t know the community that well. But I know how to assess whether a person has some training in statistical techniques. And I also know that penalized regression models are used extensively in machine learning. They’re effective, they’re interpretable, they’re easy to train. When combined with ensemble methods, they’re quite powerful. Linear models are simply a useful part of the machine learning toolkit.

    3. You say they add data not knowledge. But you keep talking about just the players listed in the paper. Have you downloaded their repository from git and looked at their full dataset? There’s more there than Forsberg and Dom are really good. They’ve done quite a lot of work and provided a good foundation for anyone who wants to build on their ideas. Then, because they’re academics with real research interests, they moved on. I don’t know why you’re so harsh after calling the paper brilliant. But you’ve called a whole bunch of guys brilliant, so maybe that word means something different to you.

    4. They discuss random forests but they were working on a way to retrospectively rank players by their individual contribution to winning. They weren’t working on a supervised learning problem. They couldn’t have used random forests for the problem they were working on because they didn’t frame the problem with prediction in mind.

    5. You seem to feel it’s important to add understanding, not data. But you also keep going on about the limits of linear models and false positives. Random forests may produce better predictions. So may convolutional neural networks. But these models are basically opaque. Researchers are working on extracting the patterns embedded in their structure. But it’s complex work. If you want to increase understanding, you want simple, interpretable linear models.

    6. Smart GMs or false positive. Are those the only two choices? When you say false positive, do you mean the model has incorrectly identified a bad player as a good player or that it has identified a good player as a bad player? And are you saying in situations where the predicted player value differs from the salary awarded by GMs, you pick GMs because they’re smart? Before I get defensive and snarky, I just want to make sure this is your thinking here.

    7. As for that last paragraph, it’s my experience that while very, very few people are very, very good at many different things, lots of people feel confident in their understanding of many, many different things. it’s a conundrum.

    My smart GMs comment was specific to the authors finding a relationship between a metric they just created and salaries NHL players are paid. The correlation is so strong it is like GMs and Agents already used this metric in salary negotiations. Did they just intuit it? Or maybe it is classic false positive. And since false positives pop up frequently in the use of linear regressions it seems like a safe bet.

    I said quite clearly that I thought it was a false positive because otherwise you’d have to assume that GMs had intuitively reached the same conclusion without benefit of the math. I don’t think that is likely. There are other explanations for there metric and salaries aligning. But we could go on and on.

    I called this paper brilliant for some of the same reasons you do. It is an extremely well thought out and executed attempt to isolate the impact of an individual player. I think this is a highly sought after goal.

    Typically papers I refer to as brilliant have tremendous visualizations or beautiful math. Here as in The Least Best Shooter Hypothesis the math is explained in detail, with a clarity that makes it replicable, and it is an elegant solution to a complex problem. Every paper in analytics should be this well done.

    I admire the time, effort, skill, and presentation. I accept the results without hesitation. I just find them trivial. By which I mean not useful in the real world. The authors themselves point out the results aren’t replicated from year to year. Thus they aren’t predictive. They are purely descriptive.

    Ask yourself a simple question. How would you use these results to make smarter hockey decisions? This isn’t pure research. It is meant to have real world application. Show me that application.

    And just so I am sure I understand – are you really saying it is better to make worse but transparent predictions than to make better but opaque predictions. If so I chose to disagree. I kind of like predictions to be predictive. Would it be wonderful if they were transparent as well? Without a doubt. But if I have to choose one or the other I pick predictive power.

    This, in a nutshell is what is wrong with hockey analytics. The results however intriguing aren’t useful and their predictive power is poor.

    If more opaque math leads to useful tools and heightened predictive power we should all learn the new math.

    I don’t mean to trivialize the effort or skill you or other amateur sabermetricians bring to hockey analytics or to doubt your passion. I get that many people think they will stumble on a better way, a hockey version of OBP if you like. I am right in that race with you.

    But here is a brilliant paper by outstanding statisticians taking a direct stab at what should be a game changer. I have long been a fan of Tom Awad and adjusted plus minus. I have talked about his work and that metric quite often here. This paper builds on that work and does everything right. It should be revolutionary gold standard stuff.

    I will leave you with a final question. Why didn’t this approach come to be prominent among sabermetricians?

    I stand by my assessment. The problem is reduction without synthesis.

  181. rickithebear says:

    Important here!
    A difference in philosophy.
    I prefer true data compared as a +/- performance versus the mean
    rather
    than a flattening of data by spreading the group and presenting it as a none true data % which can making a multitude of differentials appear on the same location on a % based S curve.
    Yet those same % based Diff are 2-10 completely diffrent goal diff cause of diffrent base GA. The true data appears. On diffrent parts of a true data S curve.
    This creates a false impression of regression to mean.

    As long as you use % you are not accurately placing your data correctly on data charts relative to performance.

    I posted a list of players from 17-18 a few blogs back with same % with completely different goal diffs.
    That would all Have diffrent standard deviations locations.

    I figure this is why all of your not even close to getting it.
    You are fooling your self!
    Poor method.

  182. hunter1909 says:

    Professor Q: dominate

    You say you’re a professor?

  183. rickithebear says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I saw Sunil’s tweet earlier this morning and it lines up with my thought that Ryan Strome at 1RW/2RW is something that should be explored by the coaching staff.He has great metrics with both McDavid and Drai (although the sample size with Connor is maybe too small to put any stock in to) and, if I remember correctly, even Drai and McDavid had better metrics with Strome that without.

    I’m starting to think that Strome is an under-rated player.

    Of course, in order to make that work, if the plan is still to keep Nuge on the wing, someone needs to step up and play 3C.

    Well, after the trade deadline last year where the Blues traded Stastny, Brodziak moved up the lineup and had 11 points (8 primary) at 5 on 5 in 16 games and produced at a team leading 2.74 P/60 (5 on 5).

    I don’t propose to play him full time at 3C but there is something to explore there.

    When I first started looking at WOWY with Excel.
    One of the files deleted @ work.

    I looked at Upper tear of situational groups.
    Then with Desjardins site.
    Established quick situational baselines for skaters.
    evg60; Evp60, GF60, GA60, Goal diff.

    A lot of manual work and video review.

    Then was made aware of stats hockey analysis.
    Which allowed me too look for trended standards for
    Diffrent core skills.
    Was the perfect inventory of Bowman’s forward pairs.

    We discussed line combinations.
    I said from day 1
    Look for the highest true data goal diff forwards pairs.
    Create a list of all viable pairs presented in best goal diff order
    Or
    By high EVG60; EVP60;

    Now NAT STAT provides a simplified reference.
    With additions at free agency.
    I did a WOWY visit of our players the best pairs
    Looked for unit weaknesses.
    But in the process had the same obsrpervation as you
    And
    Proffesor Q’s.

    Try Strome at 2RW?
    And
    Khaira @ C.

    crazy Coaches PG Khaira narrative had me on board day.
    Son of immagrant Red Neck (Hard Working)(Cement truck driver)
    Smaller than all his pears who finally got dads size.

    Right after his 18yr old WCHA (12-13) season I went back on previous peers.
    To this point I separated peers into 3 groups by game bias.

    Sub 5’10” forwards nhl reference screwed by gm height bias.
    Now with high PPG numbers and speed of game.
    They are getting thier chance.

    5’10” to 6’1” Forwards develop skate acceleration and body mass faster than 6’2”+ forwards.
    It is why I always listed lb/in for each player.

    Here is the origional list.
    6’2” + fwds
    12-13
    Kerdiles 2” 1.03
    Nieves 3” .73
    Khaira 3” .68
    10-11
    Coyle 3” .70
    Bjugstad 6” .69
    K. Hayes 5” .45
    09-10
    Krieder 3” .61
    Sheehan 3” .46
    D. Shore 3” .46
    08-9
    Coulburne 5” .78
    07-8
    JVR 3” 1.10
    06-7
    Toews 2” 2” 1.35
    Galliardi 2” .94
    03-4
    Stafford 3” .89
    02-3
    Vanek 2” 1.38
    Kessler 2” .78
    00-01
    Umberger 2” 1.16
    Steckel 6” 1.06

    I see him as a great Center option.
    That should play 2/3.

  184. Georgexs says:

    VOR,

    There’s really quite a lot in this paper.

    Take a look at the non-zero beta coefficients for goals. The vast majority of these players are forwards. Most defensemen have their coefficients shrunk to zero, meaning that, after controlling for other players, they have no effect on winning the goal battle. This is exactly the point I was trying to make to WG. Forwards have a bigger effect on winning and losing than defensemen.

    It’s weird that you found this work and yet you insist on presenting it as irrelevant and uninformative. Where do you even get that the correlation with salary is so strong? Did you read the part where they showed that for negative effect players, their goals metric has no predictive power when it comes to salary. Meaning your smart GMs pay whatever they feel like to players who contribute more to losing than winning. And, yet, you side with the GMs every time…?

    As for why the sabermetrician community hasn’t run with this, I don’t know who those people are. I don’t know what they do or how they go about things. I read some Yost; I read Hohl; I read Tulsky. I stopped reading. They’re working from a very limited base and they’re not particularly good at what they do. And they didn’t get better over the years. So when you post a link to their work and say here’s proof of something or other, it’s not a meaningful data point for me. I would pay more attention to something you yourself have done.

    As you probably know and appreciate, it’s important to think for oneself and to test ideas before accepting them. I can understand what the authors of this paper have tried to do and what they’ve done. It’s just good, straightforward data science. It uncovers much. But it can stand improvement and it deserves further iterations. I want to thank you again for pointing me to it.

  185. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:

    Thar she blows was posted by me weeks ago.
    A full 4 season look at every unit GF and GA.

    Not a team rank look but year to year gf & GA results.

    But rule 1.

    Cf-CA is dictated by
    Quick transition passes from d to forwards.
    No rover skating puck up
    Avoiding NZ trap from Opp forwards.
    Achieving HD penetration.
    Avoiding 0% Corsi
    Limited Off dmen down low out of position.
    Forward in position for NZ trap
    These are all decisions based on high ratio negative affects from failing.

    Cf-ca are the failings of
    (3 fwds – 2D – 1G)
    (3fwd – 1rover – 1D)
    (4 fwd – 1D)
    Are the
    3fwds or 3fwds & a rover or 4 fwds

    Most on here are not fan of Dmen.
    They are fan of rovers.

    Looking at one of my past posts on HF boards.
    I looked at past differentials from last wild card position.
    With all teams even at special teams
    forwards needed to outscore
    Def triangles (2D-G) evga60 by .30.
    I use .31 as a rough safe.

    Reason I hated Rovers is HD abandonment that yields high HD shot density.
    Requiring high EVGF/60 3 fwd units.
    That is why CA established by Fwd rover failure is important.
    It is the baseline dmen can reduce.
    HD density is per CA measure.
    HD dmen are really low Corsi success % location per CA dmen.

    These are all things I explained pre 2011 on Lowetide.
    But repeated
    2011 on at HF boards.
    3-5 years after Lowetide.

    13-14 which is part of the +.31 evgf60 wild card success determination..
    Now that can be be reduced by special team goal diff.
    Cup core
    1. HD sys coach
    Run a system that emphassises Low EVGA.
    1G outscores 0G
    2G outscores 1 G
    3 G outscores 2 G
    4g outscores 3G
    2. Top 10 HD goalie.
    Is really one of 2 save% performance measure.
    Above HD save% avg established.
    Above open shot save% avg established.
    3. 3+ Top 60 HD Dmen
    Usually means 2 low Save% avg Dpair units.
    Avoid a bottom 30 3rd pair.
    Prefer both to be 1st comp capable.
    4. Top 8 team top 125 fwd depth
    Deep even forward depth to outscore ga rates.
    5. +ve special teams.
    Less pressure on even performance.

  186. rickithebear says:

    15-16 oilers
    (TOI/GM) EVGF60
    Fwd:
    Maroon (13:46) 4.36
    Mcdavid (15:06) 3.62
    Hall (16:19) 2.91
    Drai (15:26) 2.86
    Pouliot (13:14) 2.72
    Eberle (15:09) 2.70
    RNH (15:28) 2.61
    Purcell (14:11) 2.49
    Yak (12:28) 2.01
    Khaira (10:17) 1.94
    Kassian (12:01) 1.39
    Korpikoski (11:06) 1.37
    Pakarinen (9:13) 1.34
    Letestu (11:18) 1.29
    Hendricks (10:52) 1.22
    Lander (9:19)

    How many forwards could outscore the deans triangle EVGA + .31

    1 – Maroon
    Schultz (16:50) 3.25; 3.56
    2 – Maroon, Mcdavid
    Nurse (17:57) 3.05; 3.36
    2 – Maroon, Mcdavid
    Sekera (17:51) 2.82; 3.13
    2 – Maroon, Mcdavid
    Klefbom (17:20) 2.77, 3.08
    2 – Maroon, Mcdavid
    Reinhart (16:13) 2.68; 2.99
    2 – Maroon, Mcdavid
    Fayne (15:02) 2.66, 2.97
    2 – Maroon, Mcdavid
    Oesterle (18:21) 2.3; 2.62
    6 – Maroon, Mcdavid, Hall, Drai, Pouliot, Eberle
    Gryba (15:32) 2.11; 2.42
    8 – Maroon, Mcdavid, Hall, Drai, Pouliot, Eberle, RNH, Purcell
    Clandening (14:31) 2.06; 2.37
    8 – Maroon, Mcdavid, Hall, Drai, Pouliot, Eberle, RNH, Purcell
    Davidson (16:05) 1.90; 2.21
    8 – Maroon, Mcdavid, Hall, Drai, Pouliot, Eberle, RNH, Purcell

    Blender is not really a option for fwd lines.

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