Bouma, Bouchard. Bouchard, Bouma

by Lowetide

In May of 2015, in the weeks after Peter Chiarelli arrived in town as Edmonton’s general manager to replace the MacTavish team, I wrote the following:

  • Faced with a large roster problem, Chiarelli preferred veteran options all down the line in Boston. In the last five years, with a contender, he overpaid for Chris Kelly, Rich Peverley, Tomas Kaberle, Joe Corvo, Brian Rolston, Loui Eriksson, Reilly Smith, Andrej Meszaros, Brett Connolly. While it’s true he was looking to remain a Stanley Cup contender, it’s also true he liked veterans long before the Bruins were winning. I believe he’ll keep the golden kids but we’re going to see picks and lesser prospects sent away this summer. The Oilers will be better in goal, on defense and more veteran up front in that middle area, in that 3line slot. Candidates to satisfy the incoming assets include Martin Marincin (poor bugger), the pick at No. 33 and cap room. It’s been a wild five weeks, and the next six may be just as crazy. The summer of Connor is non-stop action. As they used to say in the old monster-truck radio commercials, they’ll sell you the whole seat but you’ll only need the edge. Source

I was correct about the Oilers improving in goal and on the blue, but I missed badly in method of payment. Now that most of the golden kids are gone, what next? What can the organization use to address need? Are the internal solutions, while unproven, sufficient?

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

FREE AGENTS STILL AVAILABLE

  • L Lance Bouma. There isn’t an obvious statistical reason to retain his services.
  • L Mike Cammalleri. The Oilers know him, he did contribute after coming over via trade.
  • R Alex Chiasson. Gigantic winger with some skill and a lot of grit.
  • L Jason Chimera. Probably an invite, he is 40 and played seven minutes a night last season but guys who can skate (and he still can) often have long slow fade.
  • LC Joe Colborne. Chiarelli was general manager in Boston when the Bruins drafted him. If he’s healthy, Colborne could see NHL time.
  • LD Brandon Davidson. He struggled last season and the injuries are piling up but as a low risk investment or invite Davidson has all kinds of appeal.
  • RD Cody Franson. Math still loves him and that’s good enough for me. His speed means he may not get a contract but might land an invite.
  • R Jannik Hansen. His injuries are a concern but there’s still a player here.
  • L Scott Hartnell. He’s aging now and hasn’t been mentioned a lot but did score 13 goals while playing 12 minutes a night last season.
  • R Ales Hemsky. He’s 34, has been hurt a lot, but I would be happy to see him get an invite to training camp. One of my all-time favourite Oilers.
  • L Tomas Jurco. Good size, good speed, he’s been pushing for regular duty in the NHL for several seasons.
  • L Benoit Pouliot. A fine two-way forward, he did the Lido shuffle and he ain’t coming back.
  • RC Nick Shore. An attractive set of skills, righty center who can help out in multiple areas. Why is he still available?
  • L Scottie Upshall. Veteran checking forward just passed 750 NHL games.
  • R Tommy Wingels. He’s a utility forward but can help in multiple areas. How much is left?

There are several names on this list that work for me as additions to the current roster. Benoit Pouliot isn’t coming back, but I’d take him on my team. Jannik Hansen would be a solid addition as well and Nick Shore inexplicably remains available. I’m a Brandon Davidson fan, but there was a hitch in his giddyup in 2017-18.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR THIS YEAR?

The Oilers are curious about Evan Bouchard now, the final decision may come down to an invite like Bouma versus the teenage blue. Here’s my last posted projected roster, including eight defensemen.

Bouma’s hiring could also put Pontus Aberg’s roster spot in jeopardy, possibly forcing Jujhar Khaira or Drake Caggiula down the depth chart. A doomsday scenario might see Bouma getting a contract and Jesse Puljujarvi getting sent down Bakersfield. To the rosaries, ladies and men!

ASSETS OUT

Where does the next tradeable asset come from? My guess is from the blue line and it could arrive soon. If Evan Bouchard makes the team, and plays well enough to stay, Edmonton might deal a defender before next summer. Candidates include Andrej Sekera, Kris Russell and Matt Benning. I would not trade Benning. In fact, I would play him second pair with Darnell Nurse.

PUCK IQ FORWARDS

I was asked to publish this again, this is Puck IQ (my thanks again) and shows some fascinating things. Drake Caggiula played 30 percent of his 5-on-5 time against elites, that’s something the organization should take a minute over and think about what they’ve done. Slepyshev also had a tougher row to hoe than you’re think and JP as well, the Russian and Finn quite unlucky in goal differential against the toughs.

PUCK IQ DEFENSE

The top four here look obvious, with Andrej Sekera in the conversation if he’s 100 percent. I am beginning to get excited for the season.

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Clarkenstein

LT of the 15 Free Agents listed here I think every single one of them are going “south” when the team has to head “north”. IMHO

smellyglove

For the life of me, I don’t know why Jordan Peterson is so controversial.Well, I do know,..he is sort of a Rorschach Test, one learns more about the observer than the subject.

I think it’s in part because of his core view that humans evolved from lobsters, which explains/justifies why sexual harassment against women and discrimination against visible minorities in institutions/the judiciary occur.

That and he’s a clinical psychologist and widely speaks on topics outside of that field, sociology, education, etc.

edit: I don’t have strong views of him, either way, other than I don’t think he’s very credible on the topics he opines on. But he is often unfairly treated by journalists, IMO.

Wilde

godot10:

For the life of me, I don’t know why Jordan Peterson is so controversial.Well, I do know,..he is sort of a Rorschach Test, one learns more about the observer than the subject.

Obviously there’s the people who straight up disagree with his views, but another part of it is that his style and personality is really, really vulnerable to satirising.

leadfarmer

JimmyV1965: We complain when Chia signs guys for too much money. Now we complain when he doesn’t get them signed quick enough for the Klefbom deal. Maybe, just maybe, Nurse wants too much money and he’s the one holding up a deal. Or maybe the GM is trying to figure out a way to sign him long term.

Core player vs complimentary player. Nurse is part of the core.

godot10

Turns out, Jordan Peterson has a sense of irony. The closing music at the end of the night at the Jube was Arcade Fire’s “Wake Up”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVekcil1dyU

Something filled up
My heart with nothing
Someone told me not to cry
But now that I’m older
My heart’s colder
And I can see that it’s a lie

Children, wake up
Hold your mistake up
Before they turn the summer into dust
If the children don’t grow up
Our bodies get bigger but our hearts get torn up
We’re just a million little gods causing rain storms
Turning every good thing to rust
I guess we’ll just have to adjust

With my lightning bolts a glowing
I can see where I am going to be
When the reaper he reaches and touches my hand
With my lightning bolts a glowing
I can see where I am going
With my lightning bolts a glowing
I can see where I am go-going
You better look out below!

====================================================

For the life of me, I don’t know why Jordan Peterson is so controversial. Well, I do know,..he is sort of a Rorschach Test, one learns more about the observer than the subject.

pts2pndr

stephen sheps: It’s like the equivalent of NFL teams bringing in an extra QB in training camp – a camp arm dnthe term. Having a couple

Players on PTOs and ATOs show up for camp can potentially give roster balance (in terms of numbers) for line drills and scrimmage games. If it does turn out that someone on a tryout impresses, an offer might get made. Otherwise they’re often cut. The oilers had Chris Kelly in camp last year. How many games in the preseason did he play? A couple but certainly not all, but there was no obligation. He remained after, practising with the team to stay in game shape hoping that a contract would appear from somewhere. It was an AHL deal ultimately but the oilers had no obligation to the player

I understand that concept however with three new assistant coaches and several young players that require a full evaluation plus lline construction,adding additional players seems to only muddy the water

jp

rickithebear: I revisited today quickly.
It is around .46 and above full list.
Done in a scribbler.

If that’s the full list, that’s extremely impressive actually. Every one (of the pre 12-13 list) has played NHL games. From reports Khaira was a very nice 2-way C in Bakersfield, maybe he gets there in time at the NHL level too. Thanks.

Paddy Morans Jockstrap

Caggiula needs to have a Cogliano moment where he realizes that 2 way play is the only way he stays and thrives in the league. He’s smart enough to understand and commit to it, but the question is whether it happens with the Oilers or elsewhere. The chances this kid gets are way out of line with actual performance and all the “got to earn your time” verbal from the coach.

Kassian is another guy who is misused. He was tied to the anchor Letestu last year and buried by the coach on the 4th line no matter what he did. Must be pretty discouraging to watch young guys with marginal talent like Cags, Aberg and Rattie get time with McDavid without getting a sniff yourself. Kassian’s numbers away from our 4th line dregs were OK last year, and in limited minutes, his GF% and corsi with Lucic were actually pretty good. I’d look at a 3rd line of Lucic-Strome-Kassian which could be a load to handle for 3rd line competition.

As others have said, goaltending, injuries on defense and special teams sewered last season. The PK was fixed when they moved in Strome/Pak, got rid of Letestu and Cagiula – but coaching played a huge role in how badly the special teams performed last season.

OriginalPouzar

A healthy Sekera & Russell 2nd comp Dpair.
Is a beutiful thing.

I don’t profess to understand the number but in any event this must be where they fall apart.

From watching all the games, Kris Russell is not a competent 2RD in the NHL.

Sure, he defends the high danger zone well but he is doing that constantly due to not being able to move the puck out with possession.

Its is almost always (a) a flip out or off the glass and out – safe plays that have the team going right back on the defence or (b) D to D or the reset which, while keeping possession in the instant, craters all transition.

Thankfully, the looks to be the third pairing going in to this season and, as of now, it looks like Russell is the player that would come out of the lineup when Bouchard is to come in (if he breaks camp with the team).

Come on Matty B.

rickithebear

jp: Is that the whole list of 6’2″+ 18 year olds who scored .45 PPG? Or just those who made the NHL? Pretty solid list.

I revisited today quickly.
It is around .46 and above full list.
Done in a scribbler.

Small forwards played in NCAA cause not much chance in NHL.
Which is now diffrent.

Big players need time to develop.
Seeing larger USHL players go to College.

The crap shoot is in between 5’10” to 6’1”

6’2”+ after 12-13
16-17
Fredric 1.10,
15-16
t. Thompson .89 O’Rielly trade
J. greenway
14-15
Eichel, 1.78
Tuch .76
13-14
Moore .76
Flashing .75

Pescador

rickithebear: When I first started looking at WOWY with Excel.
One of the files deleted @ work.

I looked at Upper tear of situational groups.
Then with Desjardins site.
Established quick situational baselines for skaters.
evg60; Evp60, GF60, GA60, Goal diff.

A lot of manual work and video review.

Then was made aware ofstats hockey analysis.
Which allowed me too look for trended standards for
Diffrent core skills.
Was the perfect inventory of Bowman’s forward pairs.

We discussed line combinations.
I said from day 1
Look for the highest true data goal diff forwards pairs.
Create a list of all viable pairs presented in best goal diff order
Or
By high EVG60; EVP60;

Now NAT STAT provides a simplified reference.
With additions at free agency.
I did a WOWY visit of our players the best pairs
Looked for unit weaknesses.
But in the process had the same obsrpervation as you
And
ProffesorQ’s.

Try Strome at 2RW?
And
Khaira @ C.

crazy Coaches PG Khaira narrative had me on board day.
Son of immagrant Red Neck (Hard Working)(Cement truck driver)
Smaller than all his pears who finally got dads size.

Right after his 18yr old WCHA (12-13) season I went back on previous peers.
To this point I separated peers into 3 groups by game bias.

Sub 5’10” forwards nhl reference screwed by gm height bias.
Now with high PPG numbers and speed of game.
They are getting thier chance.

5’10” to 6’1” Forwards develop skate acceleration and body mass faster than 6’2”+ forwards.
It is why I always listed lb/in for each player.

Here is the origional list.
6’2” + fwds
12-13
Kerdiles 2” 1.03
Nieves 3” .73
Khaira 3” .68
10-11
Coyle 3” .70
Bjugstad 6” .69
K. Hayes 5” .45
09-10
Krieder 3” .61
Sheehan 3” .46
D. Shore 3” .46
08-9
Coulburne 5” .78
07-8
JVR 3” 1.10
06-7
Toews 2” 2” 1.35
Galliardi 2” .94
03-4
Stafford 3” .89
02-3
Vanek 2” 1.38
Kessler 2” .78
00-01
Umberger 2” 1.16
Steckel 6” 1.06

I see him as a great Center option.
That should play 2/3.

RNH McDavid Strome
Rieder Drai Puljujarvi
Lucic Khaira Aberg
Cagul Brodz Kass
1st and 2nd lines make all kinds of sense,
That 3rd line looks outta wack.
Lucic Drai Rieder
Aberg Khaira Puljujarvi
better?

rickithebear

16-17
Mcdavid (17:16) 3.68
Drai (15:32) 3.29
Maroon (14:48) 3.15
Desharnsis (11:01) 2.72
Pitlick (9:41) 2.59
Kassian (11:06) 2.53
Eberle (14:30) 2.52
Lucic (14:24) 2.44
Puljujarvi (10:26) 2.26
Letestu (9:48) 2.19
RNH (14:04) 2.18
Caggulia (10:54) 2.11
Pakarinen (8:31) 2.01

Klefbom (18:10) 2.70; 3.01
3 – Mcdavid, Drai, Maroon
Nurse (15:42) 2.69; 3.00
3 – Mcdavid, Drai, Maroon
Gryba (14:47) 2.33, 2.64
4 – Mcdavid, Drai, Maroon, Desharnais
Larsson (18:22) 2.31; 2.62
4 – Mcdavid, Drai, Maroon, Desharnais
Benning (15:29) 2.31, 2.62
4 – Mcdavid, Drai, Maroon, Desharnais
Davidson (14:16) 1.95, 2.26
9 – Mcdavid, Drai, Maroon, Desharnais, Pitlick, Kassian, Eberle, Lucic, JP
Russell (18:35) 1.85, 2.16
11- Mcdavid, Drai, Maroon, Desharnais, Pitlick, Kassian, Eberle, Lucic, JP, Letestu, RNH
Sekera (17:15) 1.83, 2.14
11 – Mcdavid, Drai, Maroon, Desharnais, Pitlick, Kassian, Eberle, Lucic, JP, Letestu, RNH

Based on 12/60min 7.35 STG60 & 48/60 2.35 EVG60
ST 1.47/3.35 x .31 = .136
EV 1.88/3.35 x .31 = .174
Is the expected rough ratio for WC.

Great HD defence gives your team greater winnable forwards depth.
I spend it on less expensive cap hit Top EV/Pk Dmen,

A healthy Sekera & Russell 2nd comp Dpair.
Is a beutiful thing.

jp

OriginalPouzar,

This is true. Hopefully those 18 games had an impact and he progresses to 7/8 D on merit fairly quickly.

jp

rickithebear:

Here is the origional list.
6’2” + fwds
12-13
Kerdiles 2” 1.03
Nieves 3” .73
Khaira 3” .68
10-11
Coyle 3” .70
Bjugstad 6” .69
K. Hayes 5” .45
09-10
Krieder 3” .61
Sheehan 3” .46
D. Shore 3” .46
08-9
Coulburne 5” .78
07-8
JVR 3” 1.10
06-7
Toews 2” 2” 1.35
Galliardi 2” .94
03-4
Stafford 3” .89
02-3
Vanek 2” 1.38
Kessler 2” .78
00-01
Umberger 2” 1.16
Steckel 6” 1.06

I see him as a great Center option.
That should play 2/3.

Is that the whole list of 6’2″+ 18 year olds who scored .45 PPG? Or just those who made the NHL? Pretty solid list.

OriginalPouzar

That’s fair and you might be right but i would say that there is a difference between playing a kid like Bear during the last 18 games of a season where playoffs are already lost to give him some experience and take a look and playing in games where wins and loses still matter alot vis-a-vis the playoffs. More experienced (Stanton) and low event (Lowe) players may be more coveted at that point.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Good info – thank you.

I think I’d put Lowe/Stanton ahead of Bear.

Of course, Bear is the better and more higher end prospect but, if last year was any indication, he will need a good half season (or more) in the AHL to continue to work on his various deficiencies (gaps, angle, battles, decision-making at the line, etc.).I don’t want him brought up before he’s shown he may be ready because of lack of depth.

That’s fair, I don’t disagree, though I was more trying to predict what the Oilers will do than what “should” happen. Bear played 18 games last year (with more TOI than Benning, Sekera, Davidson, etc), while Lowe/Stanton played 2 games. My guess is he’s right behind Gravel if the team needs someone to play games rather than sit in the press box (also the only RD among this group).

rickithebear

15-16 oilers
(TOI/GM) EVGF60
Fwd:
Maroon (13:46) 4.36
Mcdavid (15:06) 3.62
Hall (16:19) 2.91
Drai (15:26) 2.86
Pouliot (13:14) 2.72
Eberle (15:09) 2.70
RNH (15:28) 2.61
Purcell (14:11) 2.49
Yak (12:28) 2.01
Khaira (10:17) 1.94
Kassian (12:01) 1.39
Korpikoski (11:06) 1.37
Pakarinen (9:13) 1.34
Letestu (11:18) 1.29
Hendricks (10:52) 1.22
Lander (9:19)

How many forwards could outscore the deans triangle EVGA + .31

1 – Maroon
Schultz (16:50) 3.25; 3.56
2 – Maroon, Mcdavid
Nurse (17:57) 3.05; 3.36
2 – Maroon, Mcdavid
Sekera (17:51) 2.82; 3.13
2 – Maroon, Mcdavid
Klefbom (17:20) 2.77, 3.08
2 – Maroon, Mcdavid
Reinhart (16:13) 2.68; 2.99
2 – Maroon, Mcdavid
Fayne (15:02) 2.66, 2.97
2 – Maroon, Mcdavid
Oesterle (18:21) 2.3; 2.62
6 – Maroon, Mcdavid, Hall, Drai, Pouliot, Eberle
Gryba (15:32) 2.11; 2.42
8 – Maroon, Mcdavid, Hall, Drai, Pouliot, Eberle, RNH, Purcell
Clandening (14:31) 2.06; 2.37
8 – Maroon, Mcdavid, Hall, Drai, Pouliot, Eberle, RNH, Purcell
Davidson (16:05) 1.90; 2.21
8 – Maroon, Mcdavid, Hall, Drai, Pouliot, Eberle, RNH, Purcell

WG: & I have always wanted players successful with many players.

Call it a Wild Card success guide.

rickithebear

Woodguy:

Thar she blows was posted by me weeks ago.
A full 4 season look at every unit GF and GA.

Not a team rank look but year to year gf & GA results.

But rule 1.

Cf-CA is dictated by
Quick transition passes from d to forwards.
No rover skating puck up
Avoiding NZ trap from Opp forwards.
Achieving HD penetration.
Avoiding 0% Corsi
Limited Off dmen down low out of position.
Forward in position for NZ trap
These are all decisions based on high ratio negative affects from failing.

Cf-ca are the failings of
(3 fwds – 2D – 1G)
(3fwd – 1rover – 1D)
(4 fwd – 1D)
Are the
3fwds or 3fwds & a rover or 4 fwds

Most on here are not fan of Dmen.
They are fan of rovers.

Looking at one of my past posts on HF boards.
I looked at past differentials from last wild card position.
With all teams even at special teams
forwards needed to outscore
Def triangles (2D-G) evga60 by .30.
I use .31 as a rough safe.

Reason I hated Rovers is HD abandonment that yields high HD shot density.
Requiring high EVGF/60 3 fwd units.
That is why CA established by Fwd rover failure is important.
It is the baseline dmen can reduce.
HD density is per CA measure.
HD dmen are really low Corsi success % location per CA dmen.

These are all things I explained pre 2011 on Lowetide.
But repeated
2011 on at HF boards.
3-5 years after Lowetide.

which is part of the +.31 evgf60 wild card success determination..
Now that can be be reduced by special team goal diff.
Cup core
1. HD sys coach
Run a system that emphassises Low EVGA.
1G outscores 0G
2G outscores 1 G
3 G outscores 2 G
4g outscores 3G
2. Top 10 HD goalie.
Is really one of 2 save% performance measure.
Above HD save% avg established.
Above open shot save% avg established.
3. 3+ Top 60 HD Dmen
Usually means 2 low Save% avg Dpair units.
Avoid a bottom 30 3rd pair.
Prefer both to be 1st comp capable.
4. Top 8 team top 125 fwd depth
Deep even forward depth to outscore ga rates.
5. +ve special teams.
Less pressure on even performance.

rickithebear

OriginalPouzar:
I saw Sunil’s tweet earlier this morning and it lines up with my thought that Ryan Strome at 1RW/2RW is something that should be explored by the coaching staff.He has great metrics with both McDavid and Drai (although the sample size with Connor is maybe too small to put any stock in to) and, if I remember correctly, even Drai and McDavid had better metrics with Strome that without.

I’m starting to think that Strome is an under-rated player.

Of course, in order to make that work, if the plan is still to keep Nuge on the wing, someone needs to step up and play 3C.

Well, after the trade deadline last year where the Blues traded Stastny, Brodziak moved up the lineup and had 11 points (8 primary) at 5 on 5 in 16 games and produced at a team leading 2.74 P/60 (5 on 5).

I don’t propose to play him full time at 3C but there is something to explore there.

When I first started looking at WOWY with Excel.
One of the files deleted @ work.

I looked at Upper tear of situational groups.
Then with Desjardins site.
Established quick situational baselines for skaters.
evg60; Evp60, GF60, GA60, Goal diff.

A lot of manual work and video review.

Then was made aware of stats hockey analysis.
Which allowed me too look for trended standards for
Diffrent core skills.
Was the perfect inventory of Bowman’s forward pairs.

We discussed line combinations.
I said from day 1
Look for the highest true data goal diff forwards pairs.
Create a list of all viable pairs presented in best goal diff order
Or
By high EVG60; EVP60;

Now NAT STAT provides a simplified reference.
With additions at free agency.
I did a WOWY visit of our players the best pairs
Looked for unit weaknesses.
But in the process had the same obsrpervation as you
And
Proffesor Q’s.

Try Strome at 2RW?
And
Khaira @ C.

crazy Coaches PG Khaira narrative had me on board day.
Son of immagrant Red Neck (Hard Working)(Cement truck driver)
Smaller than all his pears who finally got dads size.

Right after his 18yr old WCHA (12-13) season I went back on previous peers.
To this point I separated peers into 3 groups by game bias.

Sub 5’10” forwards nhl reference screwed by gm height bias.
Now with high PPG numbers and speed of game.
They are getting thier chance.

5’10” to 6’1” Forwards develop skate acceleration and body mass faster than 6’2”+ forwards.
It is why I always listed lb/in for each player.

Here is the origional list.
6’2” + fwds
12-13
Kerdiles 2” 1.03
Nieves 3” .73
Khaira 3” .68
10-11
Coyle 3” .70
Bjugstad 6” .69
K. Hayes 5” .45
09-10
Krieder 3” .61
Sheehan 3” .46
D. Shore 3” .46
08-9
Coulburne 5” .78
07-8
JVR 3” 1.10
06-7
Toews 2” 2” 1.35
Galliardi 2” .94
03-4
Stafford 3” .89
02-3
Vanek 2” 1.38
Kessler 2” .78
00-01
Umberger 2” 1.16
Steckel 6” 1.06

I see him as a great Center option.
That should play 2/3.

OriginalPouzar

jp: FWIW, I had a look a little while back about how much 7th and 8th D play. Last year, across the league, 7th D played on average 37 games, 8th D 23 games. This doesn’t account for trades, so it could be a little bit of an overestimate. I didn’t look at GP further down the line.

I’d put the depth chart as: Gravel, Bear, Lowe, Stanton (ignoring Bouchard’s 9 games early, and assuming he doesn’t stick all year). My guess is that Lowe/Stanton are in line for something like 10-20 games between them this year. It’s not completely perfect, but not so terrible. I wonder too whether Gryba would actually slot ahead of them after his mediocre run in Bakersfield (pointless in 24 games, -9 and just 16 min eTOI if memory serves).

Good info – thank you.

I think I’d put Lowe/Stanton ahead of Bear.

Of course, Bear is the better and more higher end prospect but, if last year was any indication, he will need a good half season (or more) in the AHL to continue to work on his various deficiencies (gaps, angle, battles, decision-making at the line, etc.). I don’t want him brought up before he’s shown he may be ready because of lack of depth.

OriginalPouzar

I’ve been slotting Puljujarvi in with Drai as I think they are thinking Rattie at 1RW but, yes, I’d rather see something like that (assuming Yamamoto makes the team on merit). I’m not sure Rattie is an actual NHL player with anyone other than McDavid and I don’t think he lasts long at 1RW.

I think I would have Yamamoto and Rieder switched – Yamamoto is a top 6 “type of player” and I think Rieder’s skill set is best suited in the middle 6/3rd line.

A 40 plus point bounce back season from Lucic would be so beneficial (on so many levels) that I think he warrants a strong look at 2LW (unless he overtly shows that he is the same player that finished the season last year – that would be a major disappointment).

Aberg is a wild-card for me – I think he can play in the top 6 if he can find some consistency to his game and get the opportunity. Not sure he’ll get he opportunity though.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Remember when we were relatively healthy in 2016/17? We still needed 11 d-men to play that year.

Yes, 5 LHD ahead of them but chances are one of them (Kris Russell) will, once again, play most of his time on the right side (hopefully 3rd pairing).

FWIW, I had a look a little while back about how much 7th and 8th D play. Last year, across the league, 7th D played on average 37 games, 8th D 23 games. This doesn’t account for trades, so it could be a little bit of an overestimate. I didn’t look at GP further down the line.

I’d put the depth chart as: Gravel, Bear, Lowe, Stanton (ignoring Bouchard’s 9 games early, and assuming he doesn’t stick all year). My guess is that Lowe/Stanton are in line for something like 10-20 games between them this year. It’s not completely perfect, but not so terrible. I wonder too whether Gryba would actually slot ahead of them after his mediocre run in Bakersfield (pointless in 24 games, -9 and just 16 min eTOI if memory serves).

Ozoil

I’d like to see this for the forwards. I think Jesse comes in hot after a full off season of training. He seemed to know how to get the Puck to mcdavid at the right times. Lucic won’t need to be a Puck carrier on the line with drai and reider, just needs to get to the right spots. The 3rd line has some potential to score. And the 4th should do fine. I think all the lines have some players who can compliment each other. Just need some healthy d men who can hit them with some passes on the fly.

Nuge mcdavid pulj
Lucic drai reider
JJ strome aberg/yam
Cag brodziak kassian

JimmyV1965

I think McDavid would go super nova with any legit top 6 winger. In fact, he would likely produce even better with a legit sniper. I love RNH but I doubt he’s zooming McDavid. He’s a very good player who complements McDavid very well. Drai would be even better because of his one timer, but we need him as 2C.

JimmyV1965

leadfarmer:
All Chia had to do is give Nurse a full Klefbom contract this offseason and draft whichever player fell at him at #10 and find a cheap complimentary player.Really not happy with where the negotiations are.He is very quickly becoming more and more expensive.
If Koskinen doesn’t become a top notch backup this very simple offseason may be yet another blunder in Chias notch.In 2 years there is no way we get Nurse for under 5 a year.Probably could have done it a month ago

We complain when Chia signs guys for too much money. Now we complain when he doesn’t get them signed quick enough for the Klefbom deal. Maybe, just maybe, Nurse wants too much money and he’s the one holding up a deal. Or maybe the GM is trying to figure out a way to sign him long term.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: 8 points in 7 games supernova?That is not even at the previous season’s points pace when he won all the hardware.

With Nugent-Hopkins and the AHL winger, he was getting close to 1.5 pts per game….that is beginning to go supernova.

This is at 5 on 5.

His numbers went up a bit in the last 13 games but he was already going supernova which was all I said.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: There are five LS D ahead of him how many injuries are you anticipating to our left side D?

Remember when we were relatively healthy in 2016/17? We still needed 11 d-men to play that year.

Yes, 5 LHD ahead of them but chances are one of them (Kris Russell) will, once again, play most of his time on the right side (hopefully 3rd pairing).

stephen sheps

pts2pndr: Ok so what you are saying is they sign him and don’t let them play! How do they make a decision on who makes the team? What you are saying defies reason or logic. There is no financial obligation but there is an obligation to give them playing time otherwise why would you bring them to camp? Is there some magic number of training camp bodies required that I am unaware of? I am saying that playing time has value to our own players and new staff to become aquainted with one another! Kiss theory!

It’s like the equivalent of NFL teams bringing in an extra QB in training camp – a camp arm dnthe term. Having a couple

Players on PTOs and ATOs show up for camp can potentially give roster balance (in terms of numbers) for line drills and scrimmage games. If it does turn out that someone on a tryout impresses, an offer might get made. Otherwise they’re often cut. The oilers had Chris Kelly in camp last year. How many games in the preseason did he play? A couple but certainly not all, but there was no obligation. He remained after, practising with the team to stay in game shape hoping that a contract would appear from somewhere. It was an AHL deal ultimately but the oilers had no obligation to the player

jp

godot10: 8 points in 7 games supernova?That is not even at the previous season’s points pace when he won all the hardware.

With Nugent-Hopkins and the AHL winger, he was getting close to 1.5 pts per game….that is beginning to go supernova.

I noticed that too and assumed he meant 5G 8A =13PTS. I didn’t check though. If it is actually 8PTS you are certainly correct.

godot10

OriginalPouzar: McDavid was actually going supernova before Nuge was put on his left wing:

– in the 7 games prior, McDavid had: 5 goals and 8 points at 5 on 5 (3.74 P/60 and 2.35 G/60)

8 points in 7 games supernova? That is not even at the previous season’s points pace when he won all the hardware.

With Nugent-Hopkins and the AHL winger, he was getting close to 1.5 pts per game….that is beginning to go supernova.

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: Not wrong – A PTO doesn’t guarantee the player any exhibition games or anything.

They could run a line in practice of Colborne/Shore/Bouma for 2 days, 7 days, 1 days and them release each of them without any game action.

Ok so what you are saying is they sign him and don’t let them play! How do they make a decision on who makes the team? What you are saying defies reason or logic. There is no financial obligation but there is an obligation to give them playing time otherwise why would you bring them to camp? Is there some magic number of training camp bodies required that I am unaware of? I am saying that playing time has value to our own players and new staff to become aquainted with one another! Kiss theory!

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: I think Gravel is a legit NHL D and this was only kiboshed by his health issues last year.

I’ll throw Stanton in the category with Lowe.

I agree though, to me, I was absolutely fine when they re-signed Lowe but I was thinking he would play the same role he did last year – AHL veteran mentor and not really an NHL option.

Given the current depth chart, there is minimal chance he won’t see NHL time.

This is another reason why the Gryba buyout doesn’t make sense to me.I know he struggled last year in the AHL but I would love to have him in between Gravel (or competing with Gravel) and Lowe/Stanton.

There are five LS D ahead of him how many injuries are you anticipating to our left side D?

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: Wrong! Time that should be going to actual prospects is wasted! What we get is what happened last year with no set lines to start the season! Too many pto’s can be very harmfull! This year with many new coaches it could be extremely harmfull. They need to see what the organization actually has!

Not wrong – A PTO doesn’t guarantee the player any exhibition games or anything.

They could run a line in practice of Colborne/Shore/Bouma for 2 days, 7 days, 1 days and them release each of them without any game action.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: I think it’s clear we have no idea what the contract demands are.I don’t think 8 x 4.5 mil would have been far from the final number.Now we will save a little pocket change for a couple years in which we are not competitive and then give it all back and then some in two years when we are competitive

We have a pretty good idea given his agent’s comments. I’m pretty sure if Nurse was willing to sign $4.5M X 8 the deal would be done.

If Nurse was willing to sign for term for a number the team is comfortable with, I’m confident management would sign the deal and figure out cap compliance over the next 67 or so days.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: A very valid point!

Except a PTO is just a camp invite with no contract – it doesn’t even preclude the player from signing an actual contract with another team.

Zero risk in bringing anyone in on a PTO.

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: A PTO is really just a dedicated invite to camp – no such thing as a “one-year PTO”.

In order for him to play, they would need to sign him to an actual contract.

Zero harm in bringing him to camp on a PTO to asses his healthy and see if it looks like he’s got any game left.

Wrong! Time that should be going to actual prospects is wasted! What we get is what happened last year with no set lines to start the season! Too many pto’s can be very harmfull! This year with many new coaches it could be extremely harmfull. They need to see what the organization actually has!

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: Its very clear that Nurse wouldn’t sign anything near a $4.1M deal for 7-8 years.

I think it’s clear we have no idea what the contract demands are. I don’t think 8 x 4.5 mil would have been far from the final number. Now we will save a little pocket change for a couple years in which we are not competitive and then give it all back and then some in two years when we are competitive

pts2pndr

Richard S.S.:
PTOs could be signed by the Oilers, but not just anyone. That Player(s) must be able to skate well, the Oilers can’t add anyone who’s too slow.That Player must be better than any other option, if he’s needed to play, there’s too many question marks already existing to add one more.I’d rather not sign a PTO if the Player’s not appropriate.

A very valid point!

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer:
All Chia had to do is give Nurse a full Klefbom contract this offseason and draft whichever player fell at him at #10 and find a cheap complimentary player.Really not happy with where the negotiations are.He is very quickly becoming more and more expensive.
If Koskinen doesn’t become a top notch backup this very simple offseason may be yet another blunder in Chias notch.In 2 years there is no way we get Nurse for under 5 a year.Probably could have done it a month ago

Its very clear that Nurse wouldn’t sign anything near a $4.1M deal for 7-8 years.

OriginalPouzar

Oilman99: Sounds like a broken record, we keep hearing the same thing day after day.

and your complaining is like a broken record, something we keep hearing day after day after day – an now on numerous platforms.

I keep hearing about Chia being an idiot, Taylor Hall, Matt Barzal, etc. day after day – I deal with it.

OriginalPouzar

Richard S.S.:
PTOs could be signed by the Oilers, but not just anyone. That Player(s) must be able to skate well, the Oilers can’t add anyone who’s too slow.That Player must be better than any other option, if he’s needed to play, there’s too many question marks already existing to add one more.I’d rather not sign a PTO if the Player’s not appropriate.

A PTO is a zero commitment tryout – its bringing a player to camp with no contract.

There is zero risk.

We could bring everyone on LT’s list to camp on a PTO and then release them all prior to heading to Europe.

OriginalPouzar

Westchester Oil: I don’t disagree with your assessment of Brad Malone – but did he do something to your family or something?

Just having fun with you – I appreciate all your comments + insights.

It actually is interesting that you mention that.

https://www.denverpost.com/2011/10/17/recovering-from-broken-neck-former-denver-hockey-player-jesse-martin-returns-to-ice/

Jesse Martin, who had his neck broken by Malone in college, is actually the husband of a colleague of mine. Jesse happens to be a big Oilers fan and was VERY torn when they signed Malone a few years ago.

To be honest, this has nothing to do with my assessment of Malone – in my opinion, he just isn’t an NHL player and he’s 30 so he’s not a prospect. I saw him hurt the team during his 7 games last year.

For him to be 14th/15th on the depth chart (almost assured of NHL games) while there are many actual NHL forwards available who I’m sure would sign just as cheap and we have plenty of room under the 50, well, that doesn’t make sense to me.

OriginalPouzar

slopitch:
How has Hemsky done when in the lineup the last few years? I’d probably roll the dice on him on a 1 year pto. Let Yamo go the the A and give McLellan options (1rw needs an upgrade).

A PTO is really just a dedicated invite to camp – no such thing as a “one-year PTO”.

In order for him to play, they would need to sign him to an actual contract.

Zero harm in bringing him to camp on a PTO to asses his healthy and see if it looks like he’s got any game left.

OriginalPouzar

dustrock: Was just going to post about Kassian. A great story and he’s liked in the locker room but how much does he have left? From being extremely valuable 2 years ago to replacement level last season.

To me, its not about how much he “has left” but about his ability to bring the game he needs to night in and night out.

For me, in order for Kass to be successful, he needs to be skating and be aggressive on the forecheck – getting in fast, banging bodies and creating turnovers. When he does this, he can be a material factor in the game and can change momentum.

This is a tough style to play night in and night out – it takes a toll on the body (and likely the mind) and I wonder if he is able to do it consistently.

LadiesloveSmid

Hemmer may choose to salvage his brain and call it a career. Missed almost all of last season with concussion issues.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7us7TI4M3M

said he felt depressed because of it

OriginalPouzar

jm363561:
The issue that continues to surprise me is not Brad Malone as 14F but Kevin Gravel as 7D. Next D in line are (in no particular order) Lowe, Bouchard and Bear, unless I have missed someone. Woodguy has recently been rhapsodising about our D strength in depth, and who am I to argue. But Gravel as 7D! – yet another addition to the list of hoped for Breakouts (JP, Yamo, Bouchard, Benning, Aberg, Rattie, Gravel) and Bounce Backs (Talbot, Lucic, Sekera, Kassian, Klefbom) for the coming season.

I think Gravel is a legit NHL D and this was only kiboshed by his health issues last year.

I’ll throw Stanton in the category with Lowe.

I agree though, to me, I was absolutely fine when they re-signed Lowe but I was thinking he would play the same role he did last year – AHL veteran mentor and not really an NHL option.

Given the current depth chart, there is minimal chance he won’t see NHL time.

This is another reason why the Gryba buyout doesn’t make sense to me. I know he struggled last year in the AHL but I would love to have him in between Gravel (or competing with Gravel) and Lowe/Stanton.

OriginalPouzar

Bryan: McDavid went supernova when they finally put him with Nuge.Let’s not overthink this…Connor is playing the toughest of the toughs every night and could use some help.

McDavid was actually going supernova before Nuge was put on his left wing:

– in the 7 games prior, McDavid had: 5 goals and 8 points at 5 on 5 (3.74 P/60 and 2.35 G/60)

LadiesloveSmid

Watching Hemsky highlights reminded me that Ference was on the powerplay.

Also that Smyth centred Hall-Hemsky at one point. Man those teams were bad.

Jordan

LadiesloveSmid:
I’d love to see Hemmer on a PTO. Even just to see him just play the pre season in an oilers jersey. Miss his beautiful play style.

I love Hemmer as much as any oilers fan from the 2000s.

I would not want to skew my memories of him then with his recent play.

He was great when the league was slower. He is slower now and the league is faster.

Europe beckons.