Five Long Years

We talk a lot about waiting five years after a draft, meaning we can conclude all business and make the call on a draft season. I did exactly that just the other day for 2013. If an NHL team could procure two regular players per draft, and those players filled a role as a regular for 10 seasons, the entire roster could be homegrown. This impossible dream is called Sam Pollock. How are the Oilers doing? You know the answer. How quickly can they recover? Good question.

THE ATHLETIC

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

BEST DRAFTS, FIVE YEARS OUT, SINCE 2000

I rely heavily on games played, but if a team drafts three players who play a substantial role on a regular basis, that’s a strong draft. Edmonton has done it, just not enough since the turn of the century. Also, generational talents and impact forwards to the front of the line.

  1. 2015—Generational forward,  227 games. (Connor McDavid 209, Ethan Bear 18). The 1979 and 1980 drafts boasted over 1,000 NHL games after five years, with names like Messier, Anderson, Kurri, Lowe, Moog, Coffey. McDavid’s draft is the only one in team history that can rival those magical drafts, 2015 probably doesn’t get 500 games in the first five years (two more seasons to go). It would be ridiculous to rank any draft year ahead of this one.
  2. 2010—Impact F, depth D, 425 games. (Taylor Hall 299, Martin Marincin 85, Tyler Pitlick 27, Brandon Davidson 12, Curtis Hamilton 1, Tyler Bunz 1). Taylor Hall was the first No. 1 overall pick in franchise history—incredible considering what has happened since. Brandon Davidson and Martin Marincin, along with Tyler Pitlick, teased and then emerged after the five year marker.
  3. 2011—Top 3F, Top 4D, Top 9F, 578 games. (Ryan Nugent Hopkins 313, Tobias Rieder 154, Oscar Klefbom 107, David Musil 4). A quality draft with a mighty head start, No. 1 overall and another player inside the first round. The Tobias Rieder pick was a strong moment for the scouts, although the club took seven years to sign him.
  4. 2001—Top 3F, backup goalie, 471 games (Ales Hemsky-275, Jussi Markkanen-128, Ales Pisa-53, Kari Haakana-13, Doug Lynch-2). Hemsky represented the best skill forward drafted by Edmonton and successfully brought to the NHL since Ryan Smyth in 1994.
  5. 2014—Top 3F, 269 games. (Leon Draisaitl 269). One pick but what am inspired choice. MacT’s top contribution to the cause. One more year to go.
  6. 2002—Top 6F, Top 6D, 440 games. (Jarret Stoll-286, Matt Greene-151, Mikko Luoma-3). A little misleading in that Stoll was a draft re-entry and technically belongs to the 2000 group. Greene and Stoll had long and productive careers. Unlike the 2010’s, both men were second rounders, top pick Jesse Niinimaki washed out.
  7. 2008—Top 6F, 250 games. (Jordan Eberle 195, Teemu Hartikainen 52, Phil Cornet-2, Johan Motin-1)Eberle took two years in junior and then played well from his rookie year. Hartikainen looked like a player, but could not survive all the management chaos in his time with Edmonton. They didn’t have their second or third-round picks.
  8. 2013—Top 4D, 300 games. (Darnell Nurse 197, Anton Slepyshev 102, Bogdan Yakimov 1). It took some time to get Nurse rolling, but his most recent seasons suggest the club drafted a top-4 defender. This is the fifth season for this draft, would have been fab if Slepyshev had also made it.
  9. 2007—Top 6F, 447 games. (Sam Gagner 366, Linus Omark 65, Alex Plante-10, Riley Nash-5, Milan Kytnar-1)So much promise—three picks inside the top 21 overall—and so little to show for it. Gagner is now over 750 NHL games, but did not cover his draft bet. Nash took forever to arrive but is now at 399 NHL games.
  10. 2005—Top 9F, 339 games. (Andrew Cogliano-246, Danny Syvret-49, Taylor Chorney-44). Cogliano emerged as a solid player and has been a consistent performer over many years now. Chris VandeVelde, not listed here, arrived after the five-year window closed

The odd man out was 2003, Kyle Brodziak couldn’t save it from the seventh round. This ranking is a little different than my previous looks and honestly we haven’t done this for two years. Input on ranking welcome.

OUTLIERS

Going through the process of ranking and then writing about the top Oilers prospects at The Athletic reminds me about how unpredictable recalls to the NHL can be over the summer. Jon wrote about Ryan Mantha yesterday, he’s a guy who made terrific progress and then a freak eye injury changed his world. I haven’t mentioned Mantha as a recall option because we simply don’t know if he’s going to play, or at what level.

I predicted Ethan Bear would play one NHL game during my RE series last summer:

  • On the RHD depth chart (Larsson, Russell, Benning, Gryba, Fayne) there’s really no one he is going to pass. That doesn’t mean he won’t get a look with the big team this season, though. Ethan Bear has a great chance to play in the NHL during his entry-level deal. How much he plays probably depends on how quickly he learns the quickness of the pro game. Once the ebb and flow of defense slow down for him, Bear will be able to move the puck effectively and spend less time defending.

As it turned out, he passed both Eric Gryba and Mark Fayne on the depth chart and enters camp no worse than No. 9 on the depth chart (the starting six, plus Kevin Gravel and the emerging Evan Bouchard). That means he’ll play in the NHL this coming season barring a setback in performance or personal injury. Caleb Jones may push forward this fall and get some NHL games, but losing Mantha (if that is the result of the injury) impacts the organization’s talent flow in a significant way.

TRAINING CAMP HOPEFULS 2018-19

I’ve mentioned Tyler Benson as a more prominent factor than one would think due to positional shortage. That fact likely gets him a longer stay in camp if he can perform well enough in preseason play. It also points to the strong possibility we see Lance Bouma (Bob has been mentioning him) or Jason Chimera in training camp.

At center, Brad Malone still has the inside track (OP needs to light more candles!) with Cooper Marody and Tyler Vesel likely to get AHL time in October. I can see Marody being an early recall if he is posting crooked numbers in California.

Kailer Yamamoto has the best chance among forwards in blue to make the team. They liked him last fall, suspect the chem will work with skill centers again this coming October.

On defense, I think Evan Bouchard will be the main story. If he makes it, Ethan Bear gets pushed down the depth chart. If Bouchard is sent back to junior, Bear would probably be an early recall option. On the left side, Keegan Lowe trumps Ryan Stanton (not listed) while Caleb Jones starts with the edge on William Lagesson, but that should be an interesting battle for recall. Al Montoya really is in no man’s land.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show with an unusual theme, based on a tweet sent out yesterday afternoon. At 10 this morning, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. The cat came back the very next year! Plus Ryan Mantha and Oilers prospects who might get the call during 2018-19.
  • Jonah Birenbaum, The Score. Everyone has been traded for everyone else as the major league baseball trade deadline approaches.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. CFL week to come, Cody Ceci, Jays trades.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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132 Responses to "Five Long Years"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Drai over Bennett draft pick continues to make me smile and likely will for another decade.

  2. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The Drai over Bennett draft pick continues to make me smile and likely will for another decade.

    I looked back on his scouting reports for an article I’m going to do on foot speed, and Leon’s boots were called into question pre-draft. The nuance involved in evaluating that side of the game might be most of hockey’s “Moneyball” right now.

  3. stephen sheps says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Agreed. I saw plenty of Bennett living in Kingston at the time. Never believed that hype. Drai was always my choice that draft year.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I agree that Bear is 9th on the depth chart and will get NHL games.

    Now, if he earns them on merit (i.e. his play in the AHL shows marked improvement in the areas he needs to work on – decision making at the blue line, gaps, angles, defensive zone awareness, etc.), then, yes, by all means, call him up.

    With that said, I think he might get an NHL recall prior to being given enough time to truly improve in those areas.

    This is one reason why I still don’t understand the Gryba buyout. I understand that he’d be starting the year in the AHL (if not claimed) and the organization wanted to “do a solid” to a good pro, however, the team comes first and I’d sure like him as a recall option to allow real prospects like Bear the privilege of continuing to develop in the proper league.

    Hopefully when the recall does happen, Bear has been able to improve enough that he can continue such development at the NHL level and not get caved!

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    I see Willie Lagesson as a dark horse to get some NHL games this year. He has North American experience, obviously, and just had a great arrow up last year over in Sweden. I like his mobility and ability to transition the puck while being mainly a defensive d-man.

    Here is hoping he passes Lowe and Stanton during the year.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    FYI, I think you are missing Ryan Stanton on the depth chart.

  7. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
      

    Yes, I mentioned that in the body of the text.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    I like Marody’s game infinitely more than Brad Malone (real prospect, a mature one, versus a career AHLer) but Marody is a rookie pro so I think he deserves the privilege of learning the pro game in the proper league, the AHL and, yes, Malone is ahead of him on the depth chart (although I don’t think he finishes the season ahead).

    We need, in my opinion, one more body in between Malone/Marody and the NHL. I’d sign Nick Shore for $800K (or less) today and I would bring any number of veteran NHLers to to camp on a PTO to see if they can be that body.

    Also, the waiver wire will look good for this acquisition.

    Candles are being lit!

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Yes, I mentioned that in the body of the text.

    Yes, I see that now as I get to the end (I like to comment in real time as I read through the post).

    I think that Stanton should be right there competing with Lowe, no?

    He’s got a couple hundred NHL games on his resume, does he not (although so does Brad Malone)?

  10. Durag says:

    I really can’t wrap my head around adding Lance Bouma. Where does he fit in? What need does he fill?

  11. 36 percent body fat says:

    Did Gagner not cover his draft bet or did the oilers not cover his draft bet.

    There inability to put quality players around him or Hall, is why this team sucked for so long.

    Yes Eberle was good, but he was a rookie, this is not putting help around hall.

  12. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Durag,

    He’s from Alberta though!

  13. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I like anything infinitely more than Brad Malone

    I feel like this is a more accurate description of how you feel.

  14. PokeCheck says:

    Durag:
    I really can’t wrap my head around adding Lance Bouma. Where does he fit in? What need does he fill?

    Like Chris Kelly, he’d be there to create an element of fear and distraction within the fanbase.

  15. JimmyV1965 says:

    It’s really hard to look at that draft record. To say it’s ugly doesn’t come even remotely close to describing just how bad it is. I know this is beyond your scope LT, but it would be interesting to see the best draft years for the entire NHL since 2000. If there’s 30 teams drafting 19 times since 2000, that’s 570 individual team draft records. Would we have even 1 in the top 100?

  16. ArmchairGM says:

    Signing Filip Berglund would make that depth chart look a lot more balanced. IMO he’s a better prospect than Lagesson and Jones.

  17. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    JimmyV1965:
    It’s really hard to look at that draft record. To say it’s ugly doesn’t come even remotely close to describing just how bad it is.I know this is beyond your scope LT, but it would be interesting to see the best draft years for the entire NHL since 2000. If there’s 30 teams drafting 19 times since 2000, that’s 570 individual team draft records. Would we have even 1 in the top 100?

    2015 because of Connor, and in spite of “the trade.”

  18. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965:
    It’s really hard to look at that draft record. To say it’s ugly doesn’t come even remotely close to describing just how bad it is.I know this is beyond your scope LT, but it would be interesting to see the best draft years for the entire NHL since 2000. If there’s 30 teams drafting 19 times since 2000, that’s 570 individual team draft records. Would we have even 1 in the top 100?

    The McDavid draft would rank #2 behind the Crosby draft. One generational player can make a draft. But that draft took no skill.

    Still even though it is the 2nd best draft since 2000, Chiarelli blew the McDavid draft with the Reinhart trade. He would have had a draft that equalled the Lowe/Messier/Anderson and Coffey/Kurri/Moog drafts and set up a dynasty. Instead he pissed it away.

  19. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965:
    It’s really hard to look at that draft record. To say it’s ugly doesn’t come even remotely close to describing just how bad it is.I know this is beyond your scope LT, but it would be interesting to see the best draft years for the entire NHL since 2000. If there’s 30 teams drafting 19 times since 2000, that’s 570 individual team draft records. Would we have even 1 in the top 100?

    Montreal in 2007 landed McDonagh, Pacioretty, Subban and Y. Weber.

  20. Wilde says:

    Ottawa also got 10 NHLers of varying quality between the 2008 and 2009 drafts

  21. Bank Shot says:

    godot10: The McDavid draft would rank #2 behind the Crosby draft.One generational player can make a draft.But that draft took no skill.

    Still even though it is the 2nd best draft since 2000, Chiarelli blew the McDavid draft with the Reinhart trade.He would have had a draft that equalledthe Lowe/Messier/Anderson and Coffey/Kurri/Moog drafts and set up a dynasty. Instead he pissed it away.

    Trading the 1st rounder in that draft is still a good move in hindsight.

    They just targeted the wrong defenceman.

  22. Oilman99 says:

    Side: I feel like this is a more accurate description of how you feel.

    Is there a day that goes by that Malone doesn’t slagged? The reality is the guy is is on the roster, let’s move on please.

  23. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10: The McDavid draft would rank #2 behind the Crosby draft.One generational player can make a draft.But that draft took no skill.

    Still even though it is the 2nd best draft since 2000, Chiarelli blew the McDavid draft with the Reinhart trade.He would have had a draft that equalledthe Lowe/Messier/Anderson and Coffey/Kurri/Moog drafts and set up a dynasty. Instead he pissed it away.

    You know what’s interesting about this take? How Griffin Reinhart completely escapes accountability in relation to this for being a bust.

    There seems to be this meme that players that bust are completely blameless. With Yakupov, almost everyone refuses to admit the Oil made a mistake drafting him at 1OV, steadfastly clinging to the BPA group consensus. The Oilers are blamed for the coaching, for poor player development, etc, and the person who is in most control of his destiny – the player himself – seems 100% absolved of accountability.

    From a purely theoretical asset management pov, trading a #4 OV for a #16 and a #33 would not appear to be fundamentally flawed logic, What made it so is the player’s inability to cover his draft bet. And it seems unreasonable to me that the GMs have to wear this completely while the players themselves seemingly get a free pass.

  24. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I agree that Bear is 9th on the depth chart and will get NHL games.

    Now, if he earns them on merit (i.e. his play in the AHL shows marked improvement in the areas he needs to work on – decision making at the blue line, gaps, angles, defensive zone awareness, etc.), then, yes, by all means, call him up.

    With that said, I think he might get an NHL recall prior to being given enough time to truly improve in those areas.

    This is one reason why I still don’t understand the Gryba buyout. I understand that he’d be starting the year in the AHL (if not claimed) and the organization wanted to “do a solid” to a good pro, however, the team comes first and I’d sure like him as a recall option to allow real prospects like Bear the privilege of continuing to develop in the proper league.

    Hopefully when the recall does happen, Bear has been able to improve enough that he can continue such development at the NHL level and not get caved!

    Gravel in, Gryba out for one reason foot speed. Here’s hoping the guys health is under control.

  25. ArmchairGM says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Durag,

    He’s from Alberta though!

    Give the man an NMC!

  26. ArmchairGM says:

    Bank Shot: Trading the 1st rounder in that draft is still a good move in hindsight.

    They just targeted the wrong defenceman.

    Jumping off a tall building doesn’t hurt in the slightest. It’s the landing that hurts.

  27. McSorley33 says:

    Bank Shot,

    Trading the 1st rounder in that draft is still a good move in hindsight.

    They just targeted the wrong defenceman.
    *********************************************************************************
    Except that 2015 draft was much, much hyped to be a real, real deep draft.

    Out of all the years, to pull off that kind of deal 2015, was not that year. Or at
    the very least – it was the year to ask for a real NHL defenceman coming back.
    ( some gms paid a similar price but received real proven NHL dman back )

    Rank Desperation could be detected as far away as Long Island that year.

  28. ArmchairGM says:

    Bag of Pucks: You know what’s interesting about this take? How Griffin Reinhart completely escapes accountability in relation to this for being a bust.

    There seems to be this meme that players that bust are completely blameless. With Yakupov, almost everyone refuses to admit the Oil made a mistake drafting him at 1OV, steadfastly clinging to the BPA group consensus. The Oilers are blamed for the coaching, for poor player development, etc, and the person who is in most control of his destiny – the player himself – seems 100% absolved of accountability.

    From a purely theoretical asset management pov, trading a #4 OV for a #16 and a #33 would not appear to be fundamentally flawed logic, What made it so is the player’s inability to cover his draft bet. And it seems unreasonable to me that the GMs have to wear this completely while the players themselves seemingly get a free pass.

    The player didn’t draft himself at #4, that’s on Islanders management. Three underwhelming post-draft seasons later, it wasn’t the player who traded himself for two high picks in a great draft, that’s on Oilers management.

  29. Side says:

    Oilman99: Is there a day that goes by that Malone doesn’t slagged? The reality is the guy is is on the roster, let’s move on please.

    Good morning, Mr. Malone.

  30. Wilde says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    From a purely theoretical asset management pov, trading a #4 OV for a #16 and a #33 would not appear to be fundamentally flawed logic, What made it so is the player’s inability to cover his draft bet. And it seems unreasonable to me that the GMs have to wear this completely while the players themselves seemingly get a free pass.

    1) There are absolutely people who blame the players.

    Why would someone purposely not blame the players? Because they’re talking through the lens of the management position. If you’re evaluating management but then giving them an out every time a player underperforms, you then can’t give them credit when a player does perform and you’re not actually evaluating anything at all.

    2) The #4 draft pick was not the #4 draft pick in the same year as the #16 and #33. You know this. This logic does not work, there was more information available at the time of the draft than just the acquisition target’s junior career. In every (respectable, worth responding to) critique of the trade, this is noted. The player’s transition to pro was alarming, or else he would not have been available for trade in the first place.

  31. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – It’s really a good reminder of how bad we have been in the drafting fur sure…

    – Even in the top-5 drafts LT identifies, there really isn’t anything other than the first rounders that we drafted later, who play a role on our team currently (Tobias via loop-hole)

    – Untill some/any of the Benson/Bear/Jones/Safin etc non-1st rounders actually make the NHL and play roles, it’s going to be very tough for this team.

    – Because your just relying on the GM to make trades, sign UFA’s, and waiver wires. That’s been the game plan necessitated by poor development for a decade plus. Tough way to make a living…

    – this would be the dream scenario for development that we know won’t happen:

    1) by end of this season, you can slot Pool in with either McD or Drai
    2) by end of this season you can slot Kailer in with either McD or Drai
    3) Benson plays some bigs, and you can slot him in the bottom pairings winger for next year(i.e Khairia development)
    4) Bouchard plays his 9 games, and next year he can be slotted in as the 3RHD, PP wizard
    5) Maybe a Cooper Marody in a year competes against Brodziak for 4C
    6) Maybe some other guy in the AHL can develop and in a year play a role in the bigs

    – If 1-4 happened, and 4 guys in our system who developed properly, and are being slotted properly, thats a massive, best case scenario win for the team. 4 players who don’t have roles on the team now, drafted by the Oil, ready to roll would be huge.

    * I’d also note that if neither Kailer nor Pool are able to play with McD or Drai by the end of this year/for next year, then plan B is on the way… You have to assume 1 is able to though, don’t we?

  32. leadfarmer says:

    Bank Shot: Trading the 1st rounder in that draft is still a good move in hindsight.

    They just targeted the wrong defenceman.

    That draft was expected to be crazy deep like the 2003 draft. Trading that pick was always the wrong decision even on the day of the trade. It was even worse that we added a high second to it. Has only gotten worse since then.

  33. jake70 says:

    Bank Shot: Trading the 1st rounder in that draft is still a good move in hindsight.

    They just targeted the wrong defenceman.

    This…it was always about the target. Headscratcher.

  34. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Also, I’m not referring to the decade of darkness anymore: we have made the playoffs 3 times in the last 16 years, Excluding the Cup run, we have won one playoff round in 16 years: nice!

    – We have won 2 playoff rounds and a Cup run in 20 years!!!

  35. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde: Montreal in 2007 landed McDonagh, Pacioretty, Subban and Y. Weber.

    The incompetence of the team’s drafting is staggering. Since 2000, we haven’t drafted a legit top 6 player outside the first round. You can argue that Stoll was a top sixer, but he only had one season above 50 pts. On defence, Petry is the only top four guy I can think of outside the first round. That’s so damn awful. It takes a monumental effort to be that utterly incompetent. I guess that’s why I’m willing to give Chia some extra rope. We are actually drafting with skill for the first time I can remember.

  36. Rocknrolla says:

    Wilde: Montreal in 2007 landed McDonagh, Pacioretty, Subban and Y. Weber.

    THIS ^^^^^

  37. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965: That’s so damn awful. It takes a monumental effort to be that utterly incompetent.

    And the thing is, it’s not entirely unique to Edmonton.

    The entire history of scouting junior players in hockey, especially when it comes to forwards, is one of the most comical tales of widespread, long-lasting ineptitude I’ve read about in any industry.

  38. J-Bo says:

    godot10,

    This is the real regret of the Chiarelli moves as discussed ad nauseam. One can get over the Hall trade especially as they at least brought back a solid player. The loss of the drafted players in the Reinhart trade will never lose its sting.

  39. Doug McLachlan says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I have a theory about the short-term overpays this off-season. The Gryba buyout, the couple hundred $K overpay of Caggulia and the $2.5M one year overpay of a KHL goalie.

    By boxing himself in on the cap Chia limits the available ask from Nurse’s camp.

    @CraigCustance has a really good podcast, the Full 60, which many here have probably listened to. Right after this summer’s Draft he had an episode with an agent from CAA and a former Assistant GM from Dallas talking about contract negotiations, among other things, and one of the takeaways I was left with was how much the $ amount of a contract is the result of slotting and the available cap room.

    I think you caught wind of this when Nurse’ agent came out publicly criticizing the price paid for Koskinen. It wasn’t dissing him as a goaltender, it was that his contract took up space that might otherwise have gone to Nurse on a longer term deal.

    Now from the Oilers’ perspective, this is a bad move if you think Nurse is about to explode offensively and price himself out of town on the other end of the bridge but if you have determined that you know what Nurse is and believe his growth and improvement moving forward will not translate into big raw offensive totals, the bridge route is a smart plan – and limiting the available cap space now makes any discussion of a long-term overpay less likely rather than more likely.

    My two cents.

  40. J-Bo says:

    One thing I’m super excited about over the next few years is the battle on right defense. I can see Larsson here long term barring unforeseen circumstance. The battle between Bear, Benning, and Bouchard should be sweet though! The long term hope in my eyes is that Bouchard becomes a no. 1 defenseman and that Benning and Bear both become top 4d and that one eventually is traded bringing value elsewhere and the other plays in the third pair and rocks it! Long term hope:

    Nurse – Bouchard
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Jones – Bear/Benning

    If Nurse – Bouchard become true top pairing D and push Klefbom- Larsson to second pair, we keep Nuge forever, and Yam and Pulju turn out… we will be talking balance and Stanley’s! This is what the candles need to be lit for!!

  41. OIL ADDICK says:

    The mention of Yak not being blamed is far from reality. He was put on blast, nightly. IMO he was round and the Oilers had only square holes at that period of time. (Not his fault)!. I’m of the belief he was ruined by the coaches usage of him and his NHL career is now over for the time being. Bottom line he was a chaotic more talented version of “The Drake”, who makes more than what Yak would’ve signed for.

  42. Georgexs says:

    LT,

    Do you have a baseline for your 5 year out rule?

    What do good, typical, bad drafts yield in terms of games played?

  43. Richard S.S. says:

    I am amazed at how much people loved the 2014/15 OilersTeam. With Super Stars Andrew Ference and Nikita Nititin leading the Defense and emerging studs Martin Marincin, Brad Hunt, David Musil and Jordan Oesterle vying for spots on the Team, the Oilers looked set for the future. Actually acquiring someone better was not a concept the Oilers followed. I can see the angst at bringing in new Players whether by trade or by free agency. Actually getting better was not something Oiler Fans really wanted.

    Considering the chatter pre-draft, many Oiler scouts and executives actually preferred Griffin Reinhart over any alternatives once Dougie Hamilton was dumped on Calgary. I question the current/accurate knowledge they had on this player. At some point a newly hired GM from another Team must depend on existing staff. To blame every miscue made at this time solely on the GM is foolish and possibly misguided. Too many people (includes player(s)) make up each transaction and everyone should/must be right.

  44. digger50 says:

    It would be nice to to see some metrics on Brad Malone. Really, is there a reason we “must block him from the NHL”. Where the heck does this come from?

  45. Bank Shot says:

    ArmchairGM: Jumping off a tall building doesn’t hurt in the slightest. It’s the landing that hurts.

    If the Oilers had gotten Dougie Hamilton with that first like they were originally aiming for, it would have been a fine trade.

    People can whine about Barzal all they want, but there is no guarantee that the Oilers scouting staff would have picked him.

    Maybe Calgary would have kept their first rounder and drafted Barzal if the Oilers had made the trade for Hamilton.

  46. Lowetide says:

    Georgexs:
    LT,

    Do you have a baseline for your 5 year out rule?

    What do good, typical, bad drafts yield in terms of games played?

    Generally speaking, my line in the sand is two players who are in the NHL and projecting as a top 4D, top 6F or No. 3 C/No. 1 goalie. I think the 2011 draft was clearly a success.

  47. leadfarmer says:

    I’m guessing the same thing that kept them from picking Bennett also kept them from picking Barzal. They probably thought both were too similar to Nuge.

  48. leadfarmer says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    I don’t think Nurse has to improve his offensive output to price himself out. The league is doing it on its own

  49. Doug McLachlan says:

    Bank Shot: Trading the 1st rounder in that draft is still a good move in hindsight.

    They just targeted the wrong defenceman.

    This is a rabbit hole I really don’t want to go down but here we are. Again.

    The Reinhart trade was an unmitigated disaster on several fronts. All agreed in advance. Why was it done is a much more interesting discussion.

    Should Barzal have been higher on the Oilers’ draft list, absolutely, but why wasn’t he? The Oilers weren’t alone in this. We’ve mentioned the Bruins passing on him multiple times but they weren’t alone. Central Scouting had him ranked 11th among NA skaters. Arizona picking 3rd goes for 6’3″ Strome and leaves 5’11” Marner to Toronto (who has a Cup winning coach pushing hard for Hanifin on defense). Jersey comes up at 6 and selects 6’3″ Zacha. The Sharks go for Meir while Florida takes 6’4″ Crouse.

    A few things here. Barzal was in hindsight a great pick but there are a few GMs who missed projecting 12g, 45a injured draft-year season as being the guy who was two years out from Calder. I think that his size was a part of the thinking that the Oilers had. We can rightly criticize that thinking and I would argue that the Yamamoto pick would suggest they have gotten over that concern but I have no doubt it was real in 2015 and a widely shared bias across many other organizations.

    Cory Pronman, leading up the draft had an interesting piece about draft boards and how teams don’t have 200+ players ranked when it comes to draft day leading to the cliché “we couldn’t believe he was still available” line from so many GMs. If the quality of the players the Oilers projected being available at that pick was not what we all knew, certainly now but even at the time, was available then trading it for immediate help was not wrong in theory and may, as you suggest, have just been wrong in execution.

    Young up and coming d-man on the cusp of making the NHL are always valuable and the price, had it been for the right young d-man, might have been a fair deal. It wasn’t the right d-man and no one is suggesting it is but the thinking behind the move is not insane. Had it panned out, perhaps another overpay for a defensemen for an offensive stalwart might have been avoided (that is as close to that rabbit hole as I want to go today).

    The Oilers had good but smallish forwards. The team was seen as easy to play against. This isn’t just a MSM trope (hi Mark Spector) but a widely held view of the team both inside and outside the organization in the summer of 2015. Getting a young, 6’4″ defenseman (if he’s the right 6’4″ defensemen) is not an unreasonable call for a team that has Schultz, Fayne, Ference, Klefbom, Nikitin and Marincin as its top 6. Size and physicality are going to be considered pretty important when the Blackhawks, Kings and Bruins have won the last 6 Stanley Cups.

    Betting on “heavy hockey” looks awful today but it was absolutely the gold standard in 2015 – and may well find its way back again. Washington played a pretty physical brand of hockey this spring.

    So the real question, IMO, is have the Oilers learned? Has Chia? I really think that the bets that Keith Gretzky has been making on skill at the draft looks really promising. The small bets Chia has made on Reider, Aberg, Marody and Hebig, etc seem philosophically consistent.

    Wished he had made a better call (or couple of calls) around the Reinhart trade. It hurt. A lot. But that doesn’t diminish the achievement in getting McDavid. Doesn’t diminish the achievement in getting Talbot. Doesn’t diminish the achievement in drafting Jones and Bear. It was a good draft.

  50. JimmyV1965 says:

    J-Bo:
    One thing I’m super excited about over the next few years is the battle on right defense. I can see Larsson here long term barring unforeseen circumstance. The battle between Bear, Benning, and Bouchard should be sweet though! The long term hope in my eyes is that Bouchard becomes a no. 1 defenseman and that Benning and Bear both become top 4d and that one eventually is traded bringing value elsewhere and the other plays in the third pair and rocks it! Long term hope:

    Nurse – Bouchard
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Jones – Bear/Benning

    If Nurse – Bouchard become true top pairing D and push Klefbom- Larsson to second pair, we keep Nuge forever, and Yam and Pulju turn out… we will be talking balance and Stanley’s! This is what the candles need to be lit for!!

    Don’t forget Berglund. He might be our second best RHD prospect.

  51. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde: And the thing is, it’s not entirely unique to Edmonton.

    The entire history of scouting junior players in hockey, especially when it comes to forwards, is one of the most comical tales of widespread, long-lasting ineptitude I’ve read about in any industry.

    It would be interesting to rank the best draft years for every team in the NHL since 2000 and compare them. I bet the same teams dominate from year to year at the top of the list, and the same teams pollute the bottom of the list. The Jets would be interesting. They actually haven’t had a lot of success outside the first round, better than the Oil of course, but they have hit homer after homer after homer in the first round.

  52. Georgexs says:

    Lowetide: Generally speaking, my line in the sand is two players who are in the NHL and projecting as a top 4D, top 6F or No. 3 C/No. 1 goalie. I think the 2011 draft was clearly a success.

    Sorry. I was asking about benchmark numbers for games played five years out. You said you relied heavily on games played. Do you know good, bad, and typical game played numbers factoring in all teams? Even working numbers…

  53. Lowetide says:

    Georgexs: Sorry. I was asking about benchmark numbers for games played five years out. You said you relied heavily on games played. Do you know good, bad, and typical game played numbers factoring in all teams? Even working numbers…

    No. I’ve compared Oilers seasons to each other, and ranked them as recently as 2016.
    https://lowetide.ca/2016/07/20/five-years-gone/

    No reason to overthink it, 1,000 games after five NHL seasons is going to be among the best ever and 0 games (1990 Oilers) is bad. Note: Back in 2016, I suggested 400 games is the line in the sand, that’s me splitting the seasons in half I suspect.

  54. Doug McLachlan says:

    leadfarmer:
    Doug McLachlan,

    I don’t think Nurse has to improve his offensive output to price himself out.The league is doing it on its own

    Perhaps, but in two years (assuming a two year bridge) the cap will have risen again so we will be dealing with that too.

    What do you figure Nurse gets?

  55. Fuge Udvar says:

    I am not worried about a bridge deal for Nurse. I think the bridge is the safe path and signing him long term at +5M is a huge gamble that he finds his offence. Worst case scenario is Nurse stagnates and we end up with a mobile physical defensive D that can play 3rd pairing on a decent contract. Or he explodes offensively over 2 years and becomes a mobile, aggressive, physical Dman that puts up points on the top pairing (shades of Pronger) and pay +8M. That gives a top 4 of

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klefbom-Bouchard/Benning/Bear/NewGuy

    If Nurse discovers his offence you back the truck up and fire whoever you need into the sun to make it fit. That would be one sexy top 4

  56. Bag of Pucks says:

    Wilde: 1) There are absolutely people who blame the players.

    Why would someone purposely not blame the players? Because they’re talking through the lens of the management position. If you’re evaluating management but then giving them an out every time a player underperforms, you then can’t give them credit when a player does perform and you’re not actually evaluating anything at all.

    2) The #4 draft pick was not the #4 draft pick in the same year as the #16 and #33. You know this. This logic does not work, there was more information available at the time of the draft than just the acquisition target’s junior career. In every (respectable, worth responding to) critique of the trade, this is noted. The player’s transition to pro was alarming, or else he would not have been available for trade in the first place.

    The Oilers sin were essentially one of A) hubris, because they likely believed the Isles had bungled Reinhart’s development which would thus explain his slow development post draft to that point, as opposed to attributing these faults to Reinhart himself, and B) caving into ownership and/or an organizational demand to ‘fix the D problem’ at that draft.

    Whenever an organization makes a bad decision, it’s always illustrative to look at the external factors that impacted that decision that took them away from disciplined unbiased logic, The urgency from ownership and the BOTB’s hubris that they could fix the development sins of another organization are the two external factors the Oilers should’ve hopefully assessed and learned from following that draft.

    From a humanistic pov, I’ll always appreciate an organization that errs on the side of positivity towards a player as opposed to negativity. For me then, it’s a lesser sin to ‘believe’ in Griffin Reinhart than it is to ‘give up’ on Taylor Hall. But unfortunately, unfounded optimism was one of the defining traits of the Decade of Darkness. Mgmt. held on to players far too long hoping they’d right the ship instead of parting with the asset while it still had value. They also projected young players as viable solutions far too early in their development. Both are sins of optimism or more pointedly, wishful thinking.

    I do feel that management is more pragmatic under Chiarelli. He’s shown the ability to cut bait on bad decisions far faster than the BOTB regime. I think a good example of the distinctions between the two regimes is Talbot. After 1 mediocre year, the BOTB would likely just bet on a rebound season with no significant contingency in place for Cam having another subpar season. With Chiarelli, Talbot lost some of that belief, so he brings in Koskinen as a perceived 1B as opposed to a lower cost backup with no hopes of projecting as a legit starter.

    In short, Chiarelli plans for the worst and hopes for the best. The BOTB planned for the best and hoped like hell it would play out that way.

  57. ArmchairGM says:

    J-Bo:
    One thing I’m super excited about over the next few years is the battle on right defense. I can see Larsson here long term barring unforeseen circumstance. The battle between Bear, Benning, and Bouchard should be sweet though! The long term hope in my eyes is that Bouchard becomes a no. 1 defenseman and that Benning and Bear both become top 4d and that one eventually is traded bringing value elsewhere and the other plays in the third pair and rocks it! Long term hope:

    Nurse – Bouchard
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Jones – Bear/Benning

    If Nurse – Bouchard become true top pairing D and push Klefbom- Larsson to second pair, we keep Nuge forever, and Yam and Pulju turn out… we will be talking balance and Stanley’s! This is what the candles need to be lit for!!

    I could see Berglund horning into this battle next TC, too.

  58. Georgexs says:

    Lowetide: No. I’ve compared Oilers seasons to each other, and ranked them as recently as 2016.
    https://lowetide.ca/2016/07/20/five-years-gone/

    No reason to overthink it, 1,000 games after five NHL seasons is going to be among the best ever and 0 games (1990 Oilers) is bad. Note: Back in 2016, I suggested 400 games is the line in the sand, that’s me splitting the seasons in half I suspect.

    400 games. Great. Not sure it’s overthinking. Numbers need context.

  59. dustrock says:

    Doug McLachlan: This is a rabbit hole I really don’t want to go down but here we are.Again.

    The Reinhart trade was an unmitigated disaster on several fronts.All agreed in advance.Why was it done is a much more interesting discussion.

    Should Barzal have been higher on the Oilers’ draft list, absolutely, but why wasn’t he?The Oilers weren’t alone in this.We’ve mentioned the Bruins passing on him multiple times but they weren’t alone.Central Scouting had him ranked 11th among NA skaters.Arizona picking 3rd goes for 6’3″ Strome and leaves 5’11” Marner to Toronto (who has a Cup winning coach pushing hard for Hanifin on defense).Jersey comes up at 6 and selects 6’3″ Zacha.The Sharks go for Meir while Florida takes 6’4″ Crouse.

    A few things here.Barzal was in hindsight a great pick but there are a few GMs who missed projecting 12g, 45a injured draft-year season as being the guy who was two years out from Calder.I think that his size was a part of the thinking that the Oilers had.We can rightly criticize that thinking and I would argue that the Yamamoto pick would suggest they have gotten over that concern but I have no doubt it was real in 2015 and a widely shared bias across many other organizations.

    Cory Pronman, leading up the draft had an interesting piece about draft boards and how teams don’t have 200+ players ranked when it comes to draft day leading to the cliché “we couldn’t believe he was still available” line from so many GMs.If the quality of the players the Oilers projected being available at that pick was not what we all knew, certainly now but even at the time, was available then trading it for immediate help was not wrong in theory and may, as you suggest, have just been wrong in execution.

    Young up and coming d-man on the cusp ofmaking the NHL are always valuable and the price, had it been for the right young d-man, might have been a fair deal.It wasn’t the right d-man and no one is suggesting it is but the thinking behind the move is not insane.Had it panned out, perhaps another overpay for a defensemen for an offensive stalwart might have been avoided (that is as close to that rabbit hole as I want to go today).

    The Oilers had good but smallish forwards.The team was seen as easy to play against.This isn’t just a MSM trope (hi Mark Spector) but a widely held view of the team both inside and outside the organization in the summer of 2015.Getting a young, 6’4″ defenseman (if he’s the right 6’4″ defensemen) is not an unreasonable call for a team that has Schultz, Fayne, Ference, Klefbom, Nikitin and Marincin as its top 6.Size and physicality are going to be considered pretty important when the Blackhawks, Kings and Bruins have won the last 6 Stanley Cups.

    Betting on “heavy hockey” looks awful today but it was absolutely the gold standard in 2015 – and may well find its way back again.Washington played a pretty physical brand of hockey this spring.

    So the real questions, IMO, is have the Oilers learned?Has Chia?I really think that the bets that Keith Gretzky has been making on skill at the draft looks really promising.The small bets Chia has made on Reider, Aberg, Marody and Hebig, etc seem philosophically consistent.

    Wished he had made a better call (or couple of calls) around the Reinhart trade.It hurt.A lot.But that doesn’t diminish the achievement in getting McDavid.Doesn’t diminish the achievement in getting Talbot.Doesn’t diminish the achievement in drafting Jones and Bear.It was a good draft.

    I think this is pretty cogent analysis. But even to get a gritty, in your face player, (a) you already have someone around the same age and better developed in Nurse, and (b) if you’re going to get that, let’s say, Bieksa-type defenceman, you bloody well better get an established NHL defenceman.

    That’s the real problem here. People like to say “Barzal lollllllz” and rightly so, but the absolute fail, as you said immediately upon the trade being announced, is trading #16&33 in the deepest draft since 2003.

    You’re trading 2 1sts for a guy who couldn’t make one of the only franchises shittier than the Oilers over the last 20 years.

    I thought they might trade the 16&33 for someone like Tyson Barrie. I would have rolled my eyes but understood it.

    When they said Islanders, I said “Hamonic! Or De Haan at the very least.” Sigh.

  60. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Fuge Udvar:
    I am not worried about a bridge deal for Nurse. I think the bridge is the safe path and signing him long term at +5M is a huge gamble that he finds his offence. Worst case scenario is Nurse stagnates and we end up with a mobile physical defensive D that can play 3rd pairing on a decent contract. Or he explodes offensively over 2 years and becomes a mobile, aggressive, physical Dman that puts up points on the top pairing (shades of Pronger) and pay +8M. That gives a top 4 of

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klefbom-Bouchard/Benning/Bear/NewGuy

    If Nurse discovers his offence you back the truck up and fire whoever you need into the sun to make it fit. That would be one sexy top 4

    – Agreed. Next 2 seasons, Russel and Sek should see their time reduced (hopefully more so as Benning, Nurse, Bouchard, Bear etc emerge)

    – That NYR guy signed for $5.25MM.

    – Doubt Nurse emerges as a Subban type, so you bridge him, then get something done longer-term later, as he’s never going to really be the guy that you wished you signed long-term earlier IMO, he’s just inflation-adjusted salary plus D…

    – And Bouchard if he be the PP wizard, he will “steal” from Nurse anyways in the next 2 years If you know what I mean…As will Klef, who was pretty good 2 years ago.

    – Can Nurse 2018 be Klef + from 2 years ago? If so we be humming…

  61. Doug McLachlan says:

    Obviously the Oilers don’t have the $ to wade in here but any thought what St.Louis is going to do with its tight cap space and RFA d-man Jordan Schmaltz? He was discussed as an Oilers trade target not too long ago.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Signing Filip Berglund would make that depth chart look a lot more balanced. IMO he’s a better prospect than Lagesson and Jones.

    I would agree that he’s a few spots ahead of Lagesson with more offensive potential.

    Its tough for me to handicap Jones as he had a tough rookie pro season.

    I believe the plan is for Berglund to sign and come over for next season.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Is there a day that goes by that Malone doesn’t slagged? The reality is the guy is is on the roster, let’s move on please.

    Is there day that goes by that the Hall or “Barzal” or Eberle trades don’t get brought up? Shit, once again, you make this post literally right after they’ve been brought up.

    Is there a day that goes by that Caggulia isn’t slagged? The reality is the guy is on the roster – should we move on?

    The fact is my opinion is that Brad Malone shouldn’t be on the roster and shouldn’t be the 1st injury call-up and, when the roster construction is being discussed, I will provide my opinion on the matter.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Gravel in, Gryba out for one reason foot speed. Here’s hoping the guys health is under control.

    I don’t see any reason why both players couldn’t be under contract with the Oilers. Whichever one loses the training camp battle gets sent to Bakersfield (if they clear) and is called up when injuries occur and provides more cover for a guy like Ethan Bear to continue to develop.

    Both cap hits are fully buryable in the minors (in fact the buyout makes it more expensive to not have the player under contract, vis-a-vis the cap) and there is room under the 50.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I have a theory about the short-term overpays this off-season.The Gryba buyout, the couple hundred $K overpay of Caggulia and the $2.5M one year overpay of a KHL goalie.

    By boxing himself in on the cap Chia limits the available ask from Nurse’s camp.

    @CraigCustance has a really good podcast, the Full 60, which many here have probably listened to.Right after this summer’s Draft he had an episode with an agent from CAA and a former Assistant GM from Dallas talking about contract negotiations, among other things, and one of the takeaways I was left with was how much the $ amount of a contract is the result of slotting and the available cap room.

    I think you caught wind of this when Nurse’ agent came out publicly criticizing the price paid for Koskinen.It wasn’t dissing him as a goaltender, it was that his contract took up space that might otherwise have gone to Nurse on a longer term deal.

    Now from the Oilers’ perspective, this is a bad move if you think Nurse is about to explode offensively and price himself out of town on the other end of the bridge but if you have determined that you know what Nurse is and believe his growth and improvement moving forward will not translate into big raw offensive totals, the bridge route is a smart plan – and limiting the available cap space now makes any discussion of a long-term overpay less likely rather than more likely.

    My two cents.

    I’ve heard this theorized previously (maybe it was you?) but I don’t buy it because its so outlandish it can’t be the case.

    If it does happen to be the case then its likely the most fireable offence of anything Chiarelli has done.

    Its essentially saying that he can’t manage the team, he can’t trust himself in negotiations, etc.

    I can’t believe it, I just can’t.

  66. GMB3 says:

    Bag of Pucks: You know what’s interesting about this take? How Griffin Reinhart completely escapes accountability in relation to this for being a bust.

    There seems to be this meme that players that bust are completely blameless. With Yakupov, almost everyone refuses to admit the Oil made a mistake drafting him at 1OV, steadfastly clinging to the BPA group consensus. The Oilers are blamed for the coaching, for poor player development, etc, and the person who is in most control of his destiny – the player himself – seems 100% absolved of accountability.

    From a purely theoretical asset management pov, trading a #4 OV for a #16 and a #33 would not appear to be fundamentally flawed logic, What made it so is the player’s inability to cover his draft bet. And it seems unreasonable to me that the GMs have to wear this completely while the players themselves seemingly get a free pass.

    He didn’t trade the picks for #4 overall though. He traded the picks for Griffin Reinhart. Compare his draft year #s with Bouchard, a 10th overall pick. Griffin Reinhart was being passed in the Islanders organization. This was known on the day of the trade.

    Chiarelli should not get a pass because on paper trading the 16 and 33 for a #4 is a good deal. An astute evaluation of talent would have pointed out that Barzal at 16 is worth more than your average 16th overall pick. Or would have pointed out that Reinhart post draft was posting down arrows.

    Yikes.

  67. Bag of Pucks says:

    GMB3: He didn’t trade the picks for #4 overall though. He traded the picks for Griffin Reinhart. Compare his draft year #s with Bouchard, a 10th overall pick. Griffin Reinhart was being passed in the Islanders organization. This was known on the day of the trade.

    Chiarelli should not get a pass because on paper trading the 16 and 33 for a #4 is a good deal. An astute evaluation of talent would have pointed out that Barzal at 16 is worth more than your average 16th overall pick. Or would have pointed out that Reinhart post draft was posting down arrows.

    Yikes.

    Nobody is suggesting Chiarelli should get a free pass. What I’m suggesting is the draft bust himself should hold some joint accountability too.

    Reinhart wasn’t a #200ov pick. No one’s raking the GM over the coals when those guys don’t pan out, for obvious reasons.

    GR was a lottery pick however, and a legit one based on the MacKenzie rankings at the time of his particular draft. When those picks fail, the player has to be held to a higher standard than the #200ov.

    NHL orgs had been fleecing the Islanders prospects for years, so you can see why a GM would gravitate towards thinking they’d somehow found a way to mess up yet another lottery selection in GR.

    That said, we all know the BOTB were way too biased towards Oil Kings players and worse, the league was in the midst of pivoting to a new emphasis on speed rendering this player type largely obsolete. These things were happening in real-time. Not anticipating that change was Chiarell’s greatest error imo, but he won a Cup on the backs of heavy hockey and most senior execs are going to lean towards the stuff that’s worked for them in the past.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    J-Bo:
    One thing I’m super excited about over the next few years is the battle on right defense. I can see Larsson here long term barring unforeseen circumstance. The battle between Bear, Benning, and Bouchard should be sweet though! The long term hope in my eyes is that Bouchard becomes a no. 1 defenseman and that Benning and Bear both become top 4d and that one eventually is traded bringing value elsewhere and the other plays in the third pair and rocks it! Long term hope:

    Nurse – Bouchard
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Jones – Bear/Benning

    If Nurse – Bouchard become true top pairing D and push Klefbom- Larsson to second pair, we keep Nuge forever, and Yam and Pulju turn out… we will be talking balance and Stanley’s! This is what the candles need to be lit for!!

    I’d like to throw Berglund in to that battle as well.

    I’m not sure if Bouchard is projected to become a true top pairing d-man but you never know and I wouldn’t say that Adam Larsson is a true top pairing d-man – although Larsson can clearly munch minutes against the elite opposition and the jury will be out for a while on if Bouchard will be able to do the same.

    I would say that, in a perfect world, Larsson is 2RD and not 1RD.

    A wild card is Joel Persson – I don’t think he’ll ever end up being a real contender for the NHL but we’ll know if a few months if his “out of nowhere” season last year translates to the highest Swedish level.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    It would be nice to to see some metrics on Brad Malone. Really, is there a reason we “must block him from the NHL”. Where the heck does this come from?

    His metrics in his 7 games last year were actually not too bad (but, from an earlier discussion, it was shown that he played during the time where the entire team had great possession metrics even though they were losing).

    My opinion comes from the fact that he’s a 30 year old career tweener/AHLer (i.e. not a prospect that’s going to get better) and, from watching him last year, he wasn’t only not NHL caliber, he hurt the team by tacking multiple bad penalties.

    Look, he’s probably fine with a few minutes a game on the 4th line, however, I don’t think he should be so high on the depth chart that he’s pretty much assured NHL games in October – I would like him pushed down the depth chart so he’s not the first injury call-up. There are actual NHL players available and we have room on the 50.

  70. godot10 says:

    Bank Shot: If the Oilers had gotten Dougie Hamilton with that first like they were originally aiming for, it would have been a fine trade.

    People can whine about Barzal all they want, but there is no guarantee that the Oilers scouting staff would have picked him.

    Maybe Calgary would have kept their first rounder and drafted Barzal if the Oilers had made the trade for Hamilton.

    Almost every player from 16 to 33 in that has done okay to great. The Oiler gave up a sure thing.

    You can only make that trade if you are getting a sure thing back.

  71. godot10 says:

    Doug McLachlan: Perhaps, but in two years (assuming a two year bridge) the cap will have risen again so we will be dealing with that too.

    What do you figure Nurse gets?

    Nurse will likely be at $7 million per year after the bridge. The good thing is that will be for the entire peak of his career. It would have been far better to lock him up now in the mid-five-million range.

  72. godot10 says:

    Fuge Udvar:
    I am not worried about a bridge deal for Nurse. I think the bridge is the safe path and signing him long term at +5M is a huge gamble that he finds his offence. Worst case scenario is Nurse stagnates and we end up with a mobile physical defensive D that can play 3rd pairing on a decent contract. Or he explodes offensively over 2 years and becomes a mobile, aggressive, physical Dman that puts up points on the top pairing (shades of Pronger) and pay +8M. That gives a top 4 of

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klefbom-Bouchard/Benning/Bear/NewGuy

    If Nurse discovers his offence you back the truck up and fire whoever you need into the sun to make it fit. That would be one sexy top 4

    Nurse even strength offense last year was great, in an off year for the Oilers. His PP offense is not so great, It is foolish to pay for the offense of power play specialists.

    The first thing that Glen Sather decided he could do without when Pocklington’s money woes hit was the PP offense of Paul Coffey.

  73. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Agreed.Next 2 seasons, Russel and Sek should see their time reduced (hopefully more so as Benning, Nurse, Bouchard, Bear etc emerge)

    – That NYR guy signed for $5.25MM.

    – Doubt Nurse emerges as a Subban type, so you bridge him, then get something done longer-term later, as he’s never going to really be the guy that you wished you signed long-term earlier IMO, he’s just inflation-adjusted salary plus D…

    – And Bouchard if he be the PP wizard, he will “steal” from Nurse anyways in the next 2 years If you know what I mean…As will Klef, who was pretty good 2 years ago.

    – Can Nurse 2018 be Klef + from 2 years ago?If so we be humming…

    Trouba is going to reset the D market for Trouba/Larsson/Nurse defensemen next summer or the one after that, if he goes to arbitratioin next year. He already has with his one year arbitration at $5.5. On a long term deal that arbitration number suggests $7 million plus.

  74. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: You know what’s interesting about this take? How Griffin Reinhart completely escapes accountability in relation to this for being a bust.

    There seems to be this meme that players that bust are completely blameless. With Yakupov, almost everyone refuses to admit the Oil made a mistake drafting him at 1OV, steadfastly clinging to the BPA group consensus. The Oilers are blamed for the coaching, for poor player development, etc, and the person who is in most control of his destiny – the player himself – seems 100% absolved of accountability.

    From a purely theoretical asset management pov, trading a #4 OV for a #16 and a #33 would not appear to be fundamentally flawed logic, What made it so is the player’s inability to cover his draft bet. And it seems unreasonable to me that the GMs have to wear this completely while the players themselves seemingly get a free pass.

    Reinhart was playing 2nd pair in the AHL when Peter traded for him.

    What did he do wrong?

    Not live up to someone else’s expectation that were not married to the reality of what Reinhart was at the time (and continues to be)?

    This is exactly like Pete saying he was “disappointed” in Strome’s production in December when his production was almost *exactly* what it had been over the previous 2 seaons.

    If I buy a Chiuaua and I blame him for not being a Bulldog, that’s on me.

  75. Bruce McCurdy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Is there a day that goes by that Caggulia isn’t slagged? The reality is the guy is on the roster – should we move on?

    I had hoped that day might be today, then ^^^this^^^ happened.

    😉

  76. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0

    Not live up to someone else’s expectation that were not married to the reality of what Reinhart was at the time (and continues to be)?

    This is exactly the way I see it as well. Their mistake (Chia and the BOTB he inherited in his earliest days on the job) was believing that the Islanders had broken the player and they could fix him. As opposed to the reality of the situation which was that A) the player himself was not developing in alignment with his draft pedigree, which is something GR must hold some accountability for, & B) the league was already transitioning away from this player type, so even if he became the best me he could be, market demand for this player type was already declining.

    So, Chiarelli bought a music publishing company right as Napster was launching. IMO, the dog analogy is too simplistic because these 18 year old prospects don’t followup identical development timelines. There are players that are late bloomers and unfortunately, orgs that indulge in wishful thinking can fall prey to the lure of such players.

    But it’s bears emphasizing that the bet could’ve paid off IF they’d been correct in their assumption that it was the Islanders broken system and not the player himself at fault for the stalled development. And while a sin of hubris, that was not a wholly unreasonable hypothesis given how the Islanders had ruined 1st rounders from Chara to Niederreiter. In fact an argument could be made that Chiarelli was trying to replicate the Sens / Isles trade of Chara for Yashin.

    The irony in all of this of course is there are never any guarantees at the draft. They could just have easily kept the pick and drafted Eriksson Ek or Samsonov or Merkley, none of whom are contributing appreciably to date. If they had, would we be patting them on the back for doing the right thing? Of course not. We’d be cherry picking the players they passed on and raking them over the coals for missing the ‘obvious’ picks. It’s the undeniable appeal of armchair GMing.

  77. Bruce McCurdy says:

    OriginalPouzar: His metrics in his 7 games last year were actually not too bad (but, from an earlier discussion, it was shown that he played during the time where the entire team had great possession metrics even though they were losing).

    Not picking on you, but more the concept. I am coming more and more to the p.o.v. that in small sample sizes, entire teams have great possession metrics Because they are losing.

  78. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: Nurse even strength offense last year was great, in an off year for the Oilers.His PP offense is not so great, It is foolish to pay for the offense of power play specialists.

    The first thing that Glen Sather decided he could do without when Pocklington’s money woes hit was the PP offense of Paul Coffey.

    The year he scored 48 to set the record, Coffey got 30 goals at evens, 9 on the PP, & (get this) 9 shorties.

  79. speeds says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    I do feel that management is more pragmatic under Chiarelli. He’s shown the ability to cut bait on bad decisions far faster than the BOTB regime. I think a good example of the distinctions between the two regimes is Talbot. After 1 mediocre year, the BOTB would likely just bet on a rebound season with no significant contingency in place for Cam having another subpar season. With Chiarelli, Talbot lost some of that belief, so he brings in Koskinen as a perceived 1B as opposed to a lower cost backup with no hopes of projecting as a legit starter.

    In short, Chiarelli plans for the worst and hopes for the best. The BOTB planned for the best and hoped like hell it would play out that way.

    honest question:

    how do you see the Lucic and Russell contracts fitting into that framework?

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    NHL orgs had been fleecing the Islanders prospects for years, so you can see why a GM would gravitate towards thinking they’d somehow found a way to mess up yet another lottery selection in GR.

    I can’t think of any post-Milbury and he hasn’t been GM for 12 years.

    Which ones are you thinking of?

  81. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: The year he scored 48 to set the record, Coffey got 30 goals at evens, 9 on the PP, & (get this) 9 shorties.

    9 fucking shorties for a Dman!?!?!?!?!

    Lordy.

  82. Bruce McCurdy says:

    What does great drafting look like?

    In 2003 the Preds looked to shore up their defence & picked Ryan Suter, Kevin Klein, Shea Weber, & Alexander Sulzer. 2616 games & counting later, mission accomplished.

    In 2004 they took Alex Radulov in the 1st, Mike Santorelli in the 6th & Pekka Rinne in the 8th.

    In 2005 they took Cody Franson (550 GP) in the 3rd round and Patric Hornqvist (649) in the 7th. Hornqvist was picked last overall for pete’s sake.

    …after a couple of fallow years that nonetheless included Nick Spaling & Roman Josi in the 2nd round, in 2009 Nashville took Ryan Ellis in the 1st round, Craig Smith AND Mattias Ekholm in the 4th, then Gabriel Bourque in the 5th. All are >300 GP.

    By the 2010s, the Preds were arguably the best NHL team not to (yet) win the Cup. And they sure didn’t do it by crashing the UFA market. Some sharp trades to be sure, but the core of that club has always been homegrown.

  83. Bag of Pucks says:

    speeds: honest question:

    how do you see the Lucic and Russell contracts fitting into that framework?

    I can’t and don’t defend those contracts. Contract terms are Chiarelli’s greatest weakness imo and in my estimation, are much more damaging than the trades in terms of longterm impacts. All GMs hit and miss on some of their trades. But Peter absolutely throws too much money and term at aging vets.

    Losing Hall, even though the price was too steep, at least brought back a badly needed top pairing D. The Lucic contract impact on the cap is absolutely killing a roster that needs optimal flexibility outside the McDavid and Draisaitl core. This org cannot afford those types of net negatives.

    I don’t love Chia. I like him for amateur procurement, I tolerate him for pro procurement, and I loathe him for cap management. He’s definitely a mixed bag for me.

  84. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    IMO, the dog analogy is too simplistic because these 18 year old prospects don’t followup identical development timelines

    Reinhart was 21 when they traded for him.

    He was unable to secure a NHL job by then and wasn’t even top pair on the AHL team.

    Not being a NHL regular at 21 is a giant stop sign, even for Dmen.

  85. Professor Q says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    And imagine if (Peter) Forsberg and Kariya were healthy while on them? Arnott? Hamuis has been good for them, too, but injuries as well.

    They didn’t have too bad of signings and trades back then either, just not the opportune times I suppose.

  86. Doug McLachlan says:

    godot10: Nurse will likely be at $7 million per year after the bridge.The good thing is that will be for the entire peak of his career.It would have been far better to lock him up now in the mid-five-million range.

    $7M? That’s a pretty hefty AAV.

    Still, if I understand you correctly you are suggesting signing him for say 8yrs at $5.5M now as opposed to $3.5 now (for two) and $7M per year (for 8) later? $44M for 8yrs vs $63M for 10yrs..

    The differential is real, giving up $1.5M in potential savings for 6 years starting at the end of his bridge, but that may be a reasonable premium to risk (especially as it will diminish in cap% each year of the contract) to be confident you are paying for a real offensive contributor.

    I love Nurse and think he is a key part of the team already (recall that Boston wanted him as a part of the Hamilton deal) so I get the love. Just not convinced that he’s going to hit the production that would give him a Doughty-like contract, even two years from now.

  87. speeds says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    But it’s bears emphasizing that the bet could’ve paid off IF they’d been correct in their assumption that it was the Islanders broken system and not the player himself at fault for the stalled development. And while a sin of hubris, that was not a wholly unreasonable hypothesis given how the Islanders had ruined 1st rounders from Chara to Niederreiter. In fact an argument could be made that Chiarelli was trying to replicate the Sens / Isles trade of Chara for Yashin.

    The irony in all of this of course is there are never any guarantees at the draft. They could just have easily kept the pick and drafted Eriksson Ek or Samsonov or Merkley, none of whom are contributing appreciably to date. If they had, would we patting them on the back for doing the right thing? Of course not. We’d be cherry picking the players they passed on a raking them over the coals. It’s the undeniable appeal of armchair GMing.

    They couldnt just as easily have done that – I mean, sure, they could have picked Merkley, but I dont know abou just as easily. The consensus BPA was Barzal, he wasnt cherry picked in retrospect. From memory, I believe Stauffer suggested EDM would have picked Eriksson Ek, some also liked Connor more than Barzal.

    I also think it is a bit of a strawman argument at the end there. No one would be patting them on the back for not trading for Reinhart (b/c it is unlikely we would know about it). I was not in favor of the Reinhart trade, and would have picked Barzal at the time, but I also dont think its fair to pretend everyone knew Barzal would be what he was this past year either. It would be reasonable to critique that hypothetical draft scenario, but in all fairness, I doubt people would be as animated if they picked Eriksson Ek vs. Barzal and hadnt traded for Reinhart.

  88. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: 9 fucking shorties for a Dman!?!?!?!?!

    Lordy.

    Those Oilers always killed it on the counter attack. Catch the other guys pinching, & wham.

    4-on-4 they were devastating, especially when Coffey was on the ice (typically with either Gretzky-Kurri or Messier-Anderson) every change in direction would be a 3-on-2, with the “3” being all superstars. The league eventually outlawed 4-on-4 play in 1985.

    Their powerplay was nothing all that special, truth be told, especially when you consider who was on it. The other guys basically had 4 guys out there all thinking defence. But that PK… oh, my my.

  89. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    NHL orgs had been fleecing the Islanders prospects for years, so you can see why a GM would gravitate towards thinking they’d somehow found a way to mess up yet another lottery selection in GR.

    I can’t think of any post-Milbury and he hasn’t been GM for 12 years.

    Which ones are you thinking of?

    Spurgeon & Nino, which still doesn’t make them above average in that department, I always find a few ‘they traded that guy before they knew what he was?’ players in each team’s draft history

  90. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would agree that he’s a few spots ahead of Lagesson with more offensive potential.

    Its tough for me to handicap Jones as he had a tough rookie pro season.

    I believe the plan is for Berglund to sign and come over for next season.

    I believe that timeline to be accurate. I rate him ahead of Jones because IMO he could step into a 3rd pairing role right now and be successful, while Jones seems 2-years from doing so.

    I believe Berglund to be much better defensively – he’s bigger, stronger and better able to handle pro forwards, besides his better defensive reads and at least as good mobility – while being about as good as Jones offensively.

  91. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t see any reason why both players couldn’t be under contract with the Oilers.Whichever one loses the training camp battle gets sent to Bakersfield (if they clear) and is called up when injuries occur and provides more cover for a guy like Ethan Bear to continue to develop.

    Both cap hits are fully buryable in the minors (in fact the buyout makes it more expensive to not have the player under contract, vis-a-vis the cap) and there is room under the 50.

    This. The buyout was completely illogical.

  92. rickithebear says:

    One thing I posted on a blog pre 2009.
    If you cannot run PvP, you do not provide full roster depth flexibility.

    Which means you are not a 1st line skater.

    For you offence first people.

    Top 93 fwd g a p
    Goal scorer 22g 51p
    Set up 30a 51p
    Evg scorer 15 evg 36 evp
    Ev set up 22 Eva 36 evp

    Top 186 fwd g a p
    Goal scorer 14g 34p
    Set up 19a 34p
    Evg scorer 11evg 27 evp
    Ev set up 15 Eva 27 evp

    .

  93. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Wilde: Spurgeon & Nino, which still doesn’t make them above average in that department, I always find a few ‘they traded that guy before they knew what he was?’ players in each team’s draft history

    A brief history of NYI Top 5 draft picks, 1995-present:

    1995: Wade Redden, traded before he played a game (exceptional circumstances)
    1996: J.P. Dumont, traded before he played a game
    1997: Roberto Luongo, traded after 1 season with Isles
    1997: Eric Brewer, traded after 1+ NHL seasons
    1999: Tim Connolly, traded after 2 seasons
    **2000: Rick DiPietro, never traded, paid in perpetuity
    2000: Raffi Torres, traded after 31 NHL games
    **2009: John Tavares, you know the story
    2010: Nino Niederreiter, traded after 1 full season
    2011: Ryan Strome, traded after 4 seasons
    2012: Griffin Reinhart, traded after 8 NHL games
    –2014: Michael Dal Colle, not traded yet

    In other words, they hung on to their #1 overalls, but the rest were hot potatoes. Good hockey players mostly, their scouts weren’t the problem. Mike Milbury and Charles Wang were the problem.

    Brewer, Torres, Strome & Reinhart ALL got traded to the Oil.

  94. Wilde says:

    Leon Draisaitl presents a really unique dual-threat when he hangs out low right face-off circle where he can catch really hard passes and hit a guy left net-side or just fire a ridiculous one-timer and I always wondered what his shooting percentage on that play was.

    Sean Tierney put out his shot maps for 2017-18 sp I get an answer to this question:

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/sean.tierney#!/vizhome/2017-18shotsmap/Dashboard1

    I count 15 in the range, 4 goals, for 26.7%. Pretty remarkable.

  95. rickithebear says:

    Top 31 d
    9g 30a 38p
    7 evg 20 Eva 27 evp

    Top 62 d
    6g 21a 27p
    5 evg 15 Eva 20 evp

    Top 93 d
    5g 16a 20p
    4 evg 12 Eva 17 evp

  96. Professor Q says:

    Wilde: Spurgeon & Nino, which still doesn’t make them above average in that department, I always find a few ‘they traded that guy before they knew what he was?’ players in each team’s draft history

    Do Roberto Luongo, Olli Jokinen, Jason Spezza (okay, they didn’t *know* they were going to be in a position to draft him…but still. It’d have been either Spezza or Kovalchuk, and Chara, for Yashin…), Zdeno Chara, Ziggy Palffy, etc. count? I know they were all Mike Milbury, and some were clearly known quantities, but maybe some GMs thought the “curses” would carry over to Garth Snow as well?

    I guess Snow really hasn’t been that bad. Except maybe for trading away Toews… 😉

    Maybe, if we’re talking post-Milbury and pre-Reinhart, we could look at the Vanek trade as well, considering what they paid to trade for him just a few months prior?

    1st, 2nd, Moulson, for Collberg and a 2nd.

    Ehrhoff for a 4th.

    Mottau and Rolston for Riendeau and Cantin.

  97. Wilde says:

    Leon Draisaitl has this really unique double-threat where he hangs out at the low right face-off circle and can either catch a pass flying at any speed and quickly hit anyone right netside or just absolutely hammer a sharp angle one-timer roof.

    I always wondered what his shooting percentage on that shot was, and Sean Tierney released his 2017-18 shot maps today so I got my answer:

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/sean.tierney#!/vizhome/2017-18shotsmap/Dashboard1

    I count 14 as the play, with 4 being goals so that’s a >25% shooting percentage. Really impressive, I bet you could get a few more goals out of him with a royal road passer stapled to his line. The year he scores 35 goals I bet you 7-8 come from that exact play.

  98. Wilde says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Professor Q,

    My perception was that the parameters were post-Milbury, pre Reinhart trade

    Also LT I have a couple versions of the same post caught in your spam filter I believe

  99. jtblack says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    “From a purely theoretical asset management pov, trading a #4 OV for a #16 and a #33 would not appear to be fundamentally flawed logic, What made it so is the player’s inability to cover his draft bet.”

    This question has a flaw. Trading #16 & #33 for a #4 that has yet to be picked is COMPLETELY different than trading #16 & #33 for a #4 pick from 3 years prior, that is not in the NHL.

    A lottery pick that has not established themselves after 3 years has a much Lower Market Value than an unpicked #4.

    A GM today proposing trading 2019 – #16 & #33 for a 2019 #4; has some merit. But no GM today is offering up 2019 – #16 & #33 for Michael Dal Colle or even Dylan Strome and saying I just landed myself a #5OV or #3OV.

    I agree with some of the other comments. in that draft (considered deep), #16 &;#33 can only be moved for a sure thing, which Reinhart clearly wasn’t.

  100. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks: This is exactly the way I see it as well. Their mistake (Chia and the BOTB he inherited in his earliest days on the job) was believing that the Islanders had broken the player and they could fix him. As opposed to the reality of the situation which was that A) the player himself was not developing in alignment with his draft pedigree, which is something GR must hold some accountability for, & B) the league was already transitioning away from this player type, so even if he became the best me he could be, market demand for this player type was already declining.

    But it’s bears emphasizing that the bet could’ve paid off IF they’d been correct in their assumption that it was the Islanders broken system and not the player himself at fault for the stalled development. And while a sin of hubris, that was not a wholly unreasonable hypothesis given how the Islanders had ruined 1st rounders from Chara to Niederreiter. In fact an argument could be made that Chiarelli was trying to replicate the Sens / Isles trade of Chara for Yashin.

    The irony in all of this of course is there are never any guarantees at the draft. They could just have easily kept the pick and drafted Eriksson Ek or Samsonov or Merkley, none of whom are contributing appreciably to date.

    – I’m certain and have knowledge of sequence of events post the deal for Hamilton where he was looking like a champ

    – When Boston f$cked him over, the OBC seized the moment to right a wrong. This was their chance for a do-over on having to pick Yak

    – The intention was always to use the draft picks for D

    – Chia, who was no way going to use the scouting staff that was brutal, he listend to the OBC, who clearly had not done their homework, and so he went with them, because the D was a mess

    – Chia was told he was getting a NHL-ready D

    – Then in training camp he saw how sh$t he was and got Russell

    – And when Nicholson bless him for keeping score, when the OBC tried their coup d’etat: he was the one who knew who did what.

    – So sure, blame Chia because he was the GM who pulled the trigger

    – But the context where this happened matters a lot. Would he do that trade today, now that he has the lay of the land, and knows who to trust? No way. That’s why he’s still the GM

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Those Oilers always killed it on the counter attack. Catch the other guys pinching, & wham.

    4-on-4 they were devastating, especially when Coffey was on the ice (typically with either Gretzky-Kurri or Messier-Anderson) every change in direction would be a 3-on-2, with the “3” being all superstars. The league eventually outlawed 4-on-4 play in 1985.

    Their powerplay was nothing all that special, truth be told, especially when you consider who was on it. The other guys basically had 4 guys out there all thinking defence. But that PK… oh, my my.

    I remember the PP not being that great considering the talent.

    Pretty sure Messier-Anderson played PP2.

    I know they killed PK with shorties, but a Dman with 9 is beyond ridiculous.

  102. godot10 says:

    Doug McLachlan: $7M?That’s a pretty hefty AAV.

    Still, if I understand you correctly you are suggesting signing him for say 8yrs at $5.5M now as opposed to $3.5 now (for two) and $7M per year (for 8) later?$44M for 8yrs vs $63M for 10yrs..

    The differential is real, giving up $1.5M in potential savings for 6 years starting at the end of his bridge, but that may be a reasonable premium to risk (especially as it will diminish in cap% each year of the contract) to be confident you are paying for a real offensive contributor.

    I love Nurse and think he is a key part of the team already (recall that Boston wanted him as a part of the Hamilton deal) so I get the love.Just not convinced that he’s going to hit the production that would give him a Doughty-like contract, even two years from now.

    The new scale…

    Doughty (and Karlson) are at $11 million. elite D ($10 million plus)

    A #3D, like Nurse is going to start at $7 million. Trouba will take us there, especially if he goes UFA, where he will get $8 million.

    #2D are going to be $8 million plus.

  103. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: Spurgeon & Nino, which still doesn’t make them above average in that department, I always find a few ‘they traded that guy before they knew what he was?’ players in each team’s draft history

    Not signing a 6th round pick (Spurgeon) isn’t worth wrath, and I’m a huge Spurgeon fan and was before it was cool.

    I agree on Nino, but he played 64 games for NYI so its not like someone plucked him out of the AHL.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Almost every player from 16 to 33 in that has done okay to great.The Oiler gave up a sure thing.

    You can only make that trade if you are getting a sure thing back.

    A mid-first round pick a “sure thing” on draft day?

    Really? Even you don’t believe what you wrote.

    Drafting would be pretty easy if you could look 3 years in to the future to see how each player was progressing.

  105. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: The McDavid draft would rank #2 behind the Crosby draft.One generational player can make a draft.But that draft took no skill.

    Still even though it is the 2nd best draft since 2000, Chiarelli blew the McDavid draft with the Reinhart trade.He would have had a draft that equalledthe Lowe/Messier/Anderson and Coffey/Kurri/Moog drafts and set up a dynasty. Instead he pissed it away.

    Chiarelli’s is responsible, but I doubt he was the only ‘he’ involved in those bloodlettings. It’s a shame for sure.

  106. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde: 1) There are absolutely people who blame the players.

    Why would someone purposely not blame the players? Because they’re talking through the lens of the management position. If you’re evaluating management but then giving them an out every time a player underperforms, you then can’t give them credit when a player does perform and you’re not actually evaluating anything at all.

    2) The #4 draft pick was not the #4 draft pick in the same year as the #16 and #33. You know this. This logic does not work, there was more information available at the time of the draft than just the acquisition target’s junior career. In every (respectable, worth responding to) critique of the trade, this is noted. The player’s transition to pro was alarming, or else he would not have been available for trade in the first place.

    Trading for Reinhart wasn’t the mistake, it was the payment.

  107. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Nurse will likely be at $7 million per year after the bridge.The good thing is that will be for the entire peak of his career.It would have been far better to lock him up now in the mid-five-million range.

    Don’t be ridiculous. He doesn’t have the offense to warrant those numbers.

  108. Georgexs says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    What does great drafting look like?

    In 2003 the Preds looked to shore up their defence & picked Ryan Suter, Kevin Klein, Shea Weber, & Alexander Sulzer. 2616 games & counting later, mission accomplished.

    In 2004 they took Alex Radulov in the 1st, Mike Santorelli in the 6th & Pekka Rinne in the 8th.

    In 2005 they took Cody Franson (550 GP) in the 3rd round and Patric Hornqvist (649) in the 7th. Hornqvist was picked last overall for pete’s sake.

    …after a couple of fallow years that nonetheless included Nick Spaling & Roman Josi in the 2nd round, in 2009 Nashville took Ryan Ellis in the 1st round, Craig Smith AND Mattias Ekholm in the 4th, then Gabriel Bourque in the 5th. All are >300 GP.

    By the 2010s, the Preds were arguably the best NHL team not to (yet) win the Cup. And they sure didn’t do it by crashing the UFA market. Some sharp trades to be sure, but the core of that club has always been homegrown.

    Can’t be all about drafting then… can it? Maybe their development program is well above standard too. Homegrown.

  109. Richard S.S. says:

    When evaluating acquisitions, whether via a trade or free agent signing, GMs must use everything available to him. There usually is a pre-existing predilection towards that acquisition, that colours all existing information. GMs need accurate and unbiased information when making any decIsions. The less a GM knows the more he must trust the information available. The more competent the staff assembling the information the better the decision-making process.

    Fair market value in Edmonton is usually more than any other Team’s fair market value, so comparisons of other markets are never satisfying for the fans – prices seem to always be too much. My contention is that it’s fairer than we know. GMs value their players differently than other GMS do and it shows continually in signings and trades. When agents get involved everything becomes more complex.

    How good is Darnell Nurse? I didn’t ask how could he might be. Is Darnell better right now that both Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson? I think no and I suspect Peter Chiarelli does as well. Two years at $3.0 – $3.25 Million per year is what I’d offer. Over $4.0 Million per is where I think the Agent is. Right now it’s a wait and see (who panics first) approach that both sides are taking. When Darnell decides he wants to play, he’ll sign, but not until then.

  110. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar: A mid-first round pick a “sure thing” on draft day?

    Really?Even you don’t believe what you wrote.

    Drafting would be pretty easy if you could look 3 years in to the future to see how each player was progressing.

    Well if you followed the lead up to the 2015 draft, it was oozing with Talent, beyond the Lottery picks. Now 3 years out, that has proven to be true.

    2016, 2017 & 2018 were not considered as deep. 2019 IS CONSIDERED similiar to 2015. Superstar at the Top (Hughes) and LOADS of Talent all the way thru Round 1 … So lets hope Chia doesn’t Re-Pete 2015.

  111. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    I haven’t forgotten our conversation.

    To answer you correctly I have found myself writing something that turns into “My Theory on Hockey”

    I think I need to write the whole thing.

    I hope to have it done by training camp.

  112. Bank Shot says:

    godot10: Almost every player from 16 to 33 in that has done okay to great.The Oiler gave up a sure thing.

    You can only make that trade if you are getting a sure thing back.

    No one really knew 16-33 was a sure thing on draft day, and they don’t really now either.

    The logic of trading a 1st for a defenseman given the the Oilers D situation wasn’t a bad idea.

    Only the result.

    This will be brought up forever by people that thought it was a bad deal on the day of the trade because they were RIGHT.

    There were a lot of posters that also though Seth Jones for RNH was a bad idea, that Yakupov was the right choice over picking a D in that spot, or trading out for a D +, and many that thought Nichkushkin was the better pick over Nurse.

    People were upset over the buy out of Benoit Pouliot, and now he’s sitting on the sidelines without a contract.

    Those opinions don’t see the light of day anymore, but Chiarelli’s decisions live forever.

    I don’t believe he’s been great as a GM, but he’s been better than MacT. If he had free reign to turf all the Old Boys Club and replace them with his own hires he would likely be doing much better.

  113. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce McCurdy: A brief history of NYI Top 5 draft picks, 1995-present:

    1995: Wade Redden, traded before he played a game (exceptional circumstances)
    1996: J.P. Dumont, traded before he played a game
    1997: Roberto Luongo, traded after 1 season with Isles
    1997: Eric Brewer, traded after 1+ NHL seasons
    1999: Tim Connolly, traded after 2 seasons
    **2000: Rick DiPietro, never traded, paid in perpetuity
    2000: Raffi Torres, traded after 31 NHL games
    **2009: John Tavares, you know the story
    2010: Nino Niederreiter, traded after 1 full season
    2011: Ryan Strome, traded after 4 seasons
    2012: Griffin Reinhart, traded after 8 NHL games
    –2014: Michael Dal Colle, not traded yet

    In other words, they hung on to their #1 overalls, but the rest were hot potatoes. Good hockey players mostly, their scouts weren’t the problem. Mike Milbury and Charles Wang were the problem.

    Brewer, Torres, Strome & Reinhart ALL got traded to the Oil.

    Thanks Bruce. Great summary.

    Ironic that of all of them, DiPietro was the one they kept. Worst contract in NHL history?

  114. jtblack says:

    Bank Shot: No one really knew 16-33 was a sure thing on draft day, and they don’t really now either.

    The logic of trading a 1st for a defenseman given the the Oilers D situation wasn’t a bad idea.

    Only the result.

    This will be brought up forever by people that thought it was a bad deal on the day of the trade because they were RIGHT.

    There were a lot of posters that also though Seth Jones for RNH was a bad idea, that Yakupov was the right choice over picking a D in that spot, or trading out for a D +, and many that thought Nichkushkin was the better pick over Nurse.

    People were upset over the buy out of Benoit Pouliot, and now he’s sitting on the sidelines without a contract.

    Those opinions don’t see the light of day anymore, but Chiarelli’s decisions live forever.

    I don’t believe he’s been great as a GM, but he’s been better than MacT. If he had free reign to turf all the Old Boys Club and replace them with his own hires he would likely be doing much better.

    Sometimes ppl are RIGHT. If you weren’t, so be it. Many ppl were right at the time. Of course we have all been wrong before and will be in the future, but don’t try sugarcoat a BAD trade.

    The Leeman – Gilmour trade was a Bad trade at the time. The Joe Thornton trade was a bad trade at the time. There are bad trades. #16 & #33 for Reinhart arent as bad as those, but it was still a bad trade in real time and is proving to be worse as time goes on.

  115. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bank Shot:
    People were upset over the buy out of Benoit Pouliot, and now he’s sitting on the sidelines without a contract.

    Those opinions don’t see the light of day anymore, but Chiarelli’s decisions live forever.

    I don’t believe he’s been great as a GM, but he’s been better than MacT. If he had free reign to turf all the Old Boys Club and replace them with his own hires he would likely be doing much better.

    – Yes. Pou recall was put on wiavers. No one wanted him. He was overpaid

    – So he was bought out. Now no one wants him, still. But its all on Chia, who inherited a 4×5 $20MM boat anchor brutal contract

    – And Chia has made mistakes. I like that he generally owns them and course corrects: picks up Russel when Griff was sh$5, dumps Korpi for Cammi, gets another G when LB was done, etc

    – But from day 1 he is hampered by a bunch of entitled “execs” who are nnot hireable at their pay-grades in hockey. Replace Howson, MacT etc and we be humming

    – We know that Chia is in charge of Bakersfield. This is how you round out an organization: look at these hires: smart, different backgrounds, hockey people moving up the ladder. I have no doubt if Chia had the same control of the Oil, he would make similar moves, but he can’t:

    http://www.bakersfieldcondors.com/news/hockey-ops-staff-finalized/

  116. Bag of Pucks says:

    One of the biggest drivers of trades in the NHL is the belief that players will benefit from a change of scene OR that your org. can do a better job developing a underwhelming player than the org he’s currently disappointing.

    If all trades were based on this simplistic notion that what a player is at present is exactly what the player will be in a new org/system and in perpetuity, than NHL talent would be reduced to raw commodity transactional value and the only driver of trades would be contract and cap implications.

    For years, the NHL took the Islanders behind the woodshed and finagled Manhattan real estate for coloured beads. It was not unreasonable for Chiarelli to filter a decision on the premise that the NYI brass were dunces and could be taken advantage of. His crucial error was in not realizing that his new OBC sidekicks were equally if not more inept by that point in their history. These were the geniuses behind the Ference, Fayne and Nikitin show after all. So to paraphrase KLowe, “they didn’t know a damn thing about acquiring pro defencemen in case there was ever a doubt!”

  117. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: His metrics in his 7 games last year were actually not too bad (but, from an earlier discussion, it was shown that he played during the time where the entire team had great possession metrics even though they were losing).

    My opinion comes from the fact that he’s a 30 year old career tweener/AHLer (i.e. not a prospect that’s going to get better) and, from watching him last year, he wasn’t only not NHL caliber, he hurt the team by tacking multiple bad penalties.

    Look, he’s probably fine with a few minutes a game on the 4th line, however, I don’t think he should be so high on the depth chart that he’s pretty much assured NHL games in October – I would like him pushed down the depth chart so he’s not the first injury call-up.There are actual NHL players available and we have room on the 50.

    It’s the same discussion as every borderline player we have. Again, all you can ask is they give 100%. That’s the best they can do to help the team. After that it’s on the GM to get better players and push them off the roster.

    So I agree with the concept. Get better players. But I don’t think it’s a Brad Malone problem. Same could be said for Iiro, Anton(s), Or whoever’ is next in line. (Rattie surprised)

    You just have to give poor Malone a break. I get the concept, but by mentioning him by name so often it just seems targeted in a not so nice way, when your actual point is more general. “Let’s see if we can improve more this summer by acquiring a more talented depth player”

  118. Bank Shot says:

    jtblack: Sometimes ppl are RIGHT.If you weren’t, so be it.Many ppl were right at the time.Of course we have all been wrong before and will be in the future, but don’t try sugarcoat a BAD trade.

    The Leeman – Gilmour trade was a Bad trade at the time.The Joe Thornton trade was a bad trade at the time. There are bad trades.#16 & #33 for Reinhart arent as bad as those, but it was still a bad trade in real time and is proving to be worse as time goes on.

    Yeah, and I admit it was a bad trade.

    But I won’t go so far as to say the idea of trading their 1st rounder for a defenceman was a bad idea. That’s just silly.

  119. Bag of Pucks says:

    Serious question for the group. Of the 5 D drafted immediately after Reinhart: Reilly, Lindholm, Dumba, Pouliot, Trouba – are there any you could rationalize trading the #16 and #33 for in 2015?

  120. jtblack says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Serious question for the group. Of the 5 D drafted immediately after Reinhart: Reilly, Lindholm, Dumba, Pouliot, Trouba – are there any you could rationalize trading the #16 and #33 for in 2015?

    IMHO if Pete got any of Reilly Lindholm Dumba Trouba; he’s Happy as Hell. All those guys play Top 4 on their team. I beleive Pete wanted a Top 4.

  121. jtblack says:

    Bank Shot: Yeah, and I admit it was a bad trade.

    But I won’t go so far as to say the idea of trading their 1st rounder for a defenceman was a bad idea. That’s just silly.

    Fair Enough. I just never understood the target.

    IE: without actual names; if the Oilers had #16 & #33 in 2019, and word started to leak that they were gonna trade those picks for a former high draft pick in the AHL; I think we would all have trepidation.

    ppl say if they Landed Hamilton, then its a good trade. Absoutely! But Hamilton had already proven to be a Top 4 NHL dman. Had Peter landed a proven Top 4, the trade is fine. But he didn’t.

  122. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Serious question for the class. Of the 5 D drafted immediately after Reinhart: Reilly, Lindholm, Dumba, Pouliot, Trouba – are there any you could rationalize trading the #16 and #33 for in 2015?

    – It’s a good question actually:

    Reilly – bonafide NHL D in 2015
    Lindholm – bonafide NHL D in 2015
    Dumba – bonafide NHL D in 2015
    Pouliot – was not in NHL, has struggled, ok with Vancounver this year
    Trouba – bonafide NHL D in 2015

    – Reilly, Lindholm and Dumba are better now than in 2015, and grow. Trouba misses games

    – Chia thought he was getting a NHL-ready D. If he got Reilly, Londholm or Dumba, I do that trade everytime at that stage for the oilers.

    – The “optimal” D the Oil had in 2015, based on who was there was:

    Sek-Fayne
    Klef-Jultz
    Nikitin-Ferrence
    Davidson-Clendenning
    Osterle

    Clendenning, Osterle, Pardy! dressed for more than 50 games on D.

  123. jm363561 says:

    Georgexs: Can’t be all about drafting then… can it? Maybe their development program is well above standard too. Homegrown.

    This is the point that is invariably overlooked. How much is down to drafting and how much development, and is there a model that can separate the contribution of the two? Pretty difficult I would think.

  124. Bag of Pucks says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Trading for Reinhart wasn’t the mistake, it was the payment.

    My concern with this premise is if the Oil had traded the same picks for the player taken immediately after Reinhart (Rielly), I suspect most fans would be happy with that. Even with Barzal’s breakout season, the fans would’ve been satisfied with securing an actual DMan.

    So it isn’t the price paid at all, it’s the failure to accurately appraise the prospect. In that example, there is nothing wrong with trading a #16 and #33 for a #5 especially when the lottery pick is 3 years along in their development. The issue as always when trading is your crystal ball foresight better be 20/20 because you know that the fan hindsight will be.

    And if the error is simply the inability to properly appraise the prospect than the Yakupov draft selection mistake is every bit as egregious as the Reinhart trade fuckup, arguably moreso, because the asset wasted was a 1OV. But everyone gives the OBC a pass on Yak because ‘BPA’ whilst the Reinhart trade is universally reviled.

  125. jtblack says:

    I looked up Shorties in a season. No D man more than 5 (Mark Howe).

    Unreal that Coffey had 9. and 48 on the season. I know the era, but that is Insane!!!

    Mario had 13 one year. Every 6th game he was scoring a shortie. Crazy.

  126. jtblack says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    “So it isn’t the price paid at all, it’s the failure to accurately appraise the prospect. ”

    Exactly. In its most simplistic form, all trades come down to Talent evaluation. They wrongly evaluated the value of pick #16 in a deep draft (2015 #16 held more value than a usual year). They wrongly evaluated Reinhart. Two wrongs make a bad trade. End of Story.

  127. northerndancer says:

    rickithebear:
    Top 31 d
    9g 30a 38p
    7 evg 20 Eva 27 evp

    Top 62 d
    6g 21a 27p
    5 evg 15 Eva 20 evp

    Top 93 d
    5g 16a 20p
    4 evg 12 Eva 17 evp

    rtb that is one interesting set of numbers! Thanks for presenting it so clearly. I think that I understand the emotion behind one of the central points of your thesis, if I have been reading you correctly over the years. “Defenders should defend well and let the forwards do the scoring” if I can paraphrase your work after a little bit too much ale?

  128. russ99 says:

    godot10: The McDavid draft would rank #2 behind the Crosby draft.One generational player can make a draft.But that draft took no skill.

    Still even though it is the 2nd best draft since 2000, Chiarelli blew the McDavid draft with the Reinhart trade.He would have had a draft that equalledthe Lowe/Messier/Anderson and Coffey/Kurri/Moog drafts and set up a dynasty. Instead he pissed it away.

    Yup Joel Erlksson Ek says dynasty. That’s the pick, as we all know.

    Revisionist history. Any team can look at any draft and say that’s who we should have picked.

    For the record, I wanted Seguin, Larsson and Yak. Build from the middle and back first – something that took us a lot of that decade of darkness to get right, and it still took some luck.

    I think a more interesting article is evidence on how much Katz meddling in the draft through his old boys in Hockey Ops set us back.

  129. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    Bag of Pucks,

    “So it isn’t the price paid at all, it’s the failure to accurately appraise the prospect. ”

    Exactly. In its most simplistic form, all trades come down to Talent evaluation.They wrongly evaluated the value of pick #16 in a deep draft (2015 #16 held more value than a usual year).They wrongly evaluated Reinhart. Two wrongs make a bad trade. End of Story.

    All of this would be forgotten if JP turns into a river pusher and Evan Bouchard turns into an NHL player overnight. People forget quickly. Sam Pollock made some horrible trades, let Tony Esposito go for free, but he won. That’s the key.

  130. --hudson-- says:

    Thanks to Oil Change season 1, we can see the first 46 names on the Oilers original draft list from 1979.
    https://youtu.be/c8NI-7yQpKc?t=46m37s

    While we can praise the outcome of the 79 draft, was it due to good process or good luck? Below is the rank on the Oilers list, the player name, and the rank of NHL games played in parenthesis. Oiler picks have the asterisk.

    The correlation is 0.55 so at first glance it looks pretty good. Would be nice to have the lists for the other teams to compare them with. Would also be nice to see the lists for each Oilers scout, was Barry Fraser the genius or was it someone working for him?

    1. Rob Ramage (13)
    2. Craig Hartsburg (39)
    3. Mike Foligno (14)
    4. Perry Turnbull (37)
    5. Keith Brown (25)
    6. Mike Gartner (3)
    7. Rick Vaive (24)
    8. Tom McCarthy (46)
    9. Lauri Boschman (16)
    10. Kevin Lowe * (6)
    11. Ray Allison (63)
    12. Brian Propp (15)
    13. Michel Goulet (11)
    14. Duane Sutter (29)
    15. Mike Perovich (0 NHL GP)
    16. Brent Ashton (18)
    17. Jay Wells (10)
    18. Blake Wesley (56)
    19. Paul Reinhart (35)
    20. Doug Sulliman (36)
    21. Raymond Bourque (2)
    22. Lindy Ruff (31)
    23. Doug Morrison (86)
    24. Tomas Eriksson (67)
    25. Dean Hopkins (64)
    26. Ed Hospodar (47)
    27. Errol Rausse (84)
    28. Mike Ramsey (12)
    29. Dale Hunter (4)
    29A. Mark Messier * (1)
    30. Lindsay Carson (52)

    36. Bill Gardner (51)
    37. Steve Peters (99)
    38. Stuart Smith (76)
    39. Tim Trimper (68)
    40. Glen Anderson * (8)
    41. Bob Crawford (62)
    42. Louis Begin (108)
    43. Mike Toal * (97)
    44. Alan Haworth (41)
    45. Shane Swan (0 NHL GP)
    46. Don Gillen (83)

  131. digger50 says:

    My take

    Everyone was excited, new GM in town and of course they are going to guide him in what they want.

    And what they wanted was to exit that draft with:

    McDavid. – generational talent
    Talbot – new goalie was a must
    Hamilton – a young soon to be top 1-2 defensman

    With Hall, Eberle, Nuge and Shultz on the team that was a good plan. Get three core pieces in one draft.
    When Boston wouldn’t cooperate the plan was the same , the pressure was on and a quick uneducated decision was forced.

  132. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    –hudson–,

    Great eye, and thanks for posting the list. Just looking back at some of the names they had slotted in above the Oilers legends to be, we were beyond lucky they “fell” to us after some “reach” picks by other organizations.

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