A Trip to Reasonable

I promised you a trip to reasonable, we’ll have to do it in pieces over time. There are two issues with the skaters that are giving me pause: The amount of recovery for the power play that reaches reasonable top dead center, and how to handicap the skill RW jobs. None of this really matters, but if we’re going to make an effort then let’s give it a real try. I estimated 25 games for Ryan Strome with Connor McDavid a year ago, he played 160 minutes with 97 (about 300 minutes shy of “reasonable”) so it’s a moving target. This year, right wing remains a mystery.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

THE TOP SIX FORWARDS, RE 2018-19

This is all of the top six in my RE. Some of these players are also on my bottom six table but for me this is the best way to break things out. For instance, I have Tobias Rieder’s estimated GP total, but he’ll play more than 12 minutes on average per night (I’ll list the other 2+ minutes when we do the bottom 6F). Also, this is at ‘even strength’ as opposed to 5-on-5, I had to change things because Connor McDavid does so much at 4-on-4. Finally, all numbers are from last season save for the 18-19 projection (that’s my projection) and the numbers are from NaturalStatTrick.

  • I have Kailer Yamamoto taking over the No. 1 right wing job from Ty Rattie at mid-season, and Jesse Puljujarvi grabbing the No. 2 RW job. It could be vice versa, but it’s coming. The competition isn’t strong enough to hold back the water.
  • I’m also certain Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will switch spots at times during the year.
  • I don’t have the point projections here, will publish them later in the summer once we’ve run through The Athletic profiles.
  • Connor McDavid’s projection is the most fun, he scored 84 EV points (35-49-84!!!) a year ago, slightly above an even strength point per game. If you add that number to his 2016-17 power-play production (3-24-27) and his 2017-18 PK numbers (1-3-4), we get 82, 39-76-115. If the power play spikes and they find a right winger who can cash, look the hell out.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins sees the highest increase in minutes and his boxcars are going to rise like a Nolan Ryan fastball if he stays with the captain.
  • I’ve decided to divide Rattie-Yamamoto onto the No. 1 line, and then Rieder-Puljujarvi on the No. 2 line, but the truth is those four men (plus Strome, plus Caggiula) are all in the mix for the two starboard jobs. I’ve chosen Yamamoto and Puljujarvi as the eventual winners but it’s going to take a lot of time, most of the season.
  • Natural Stat Trick tells us the Oilers had 4,200 minutes of even strength time, that means 12,600 minutes for forwards. I’m using about 8,000 minutes for the top-six forwards and friends, that’s 64 percent.
  • I will do the same thing for the power play and penalty kill, plus of course the entire roster. One of the things we won’t see in my opinion? McDavid spending less time on the PK. I mentioned end of June (and elsewhere) some sweet day 97 will be waiting for the shift after the penalty kill, but I don’t think the Oilers have that kind of depth this coming season.
  • Your thoughts are welcome.
  • I’ve published this previously, here are the estimated games played for the coming year.

  • No Calder Trophy for the Oilers this season, maybe Evan Bouchard wins it next season. He was poor in Kamloops last night, but I have been estimating him for 9 games since publishing this table on July 10.
  • Tyler Dellow wrote about the Oilers running a successful power play without an additional hammer from the point for The Athletic earlier in the offseason. I think Klefbom emerges in the role. It’s a worthy article for any Oilers fan.

PROJECTED GOALS (RE) 2018-19

I’m still pondering the power play. I have 232 goals for this team, they scored 229 a year ago. Columbus finished No. 16 in goals a year ago, with 242. I don’t see 242 goals on this roster, maybe just shy. The power play is a strange brew, falling from 56 to 31 year over year. That’s 25 goals! You can’t just say “Manny Viveiros will fix it” and call it a day. Anyway, I’m closing in on 90 points for the 2018-19 Oilers but there is some ways to go.

EVAN BOUCHARD

I didn’t watch the entire game last night but it was a poor showing overall by Evan Bouchard. The things we know he’ll need to improve (coverage) were off, but the things he does very well (passing) were also off. This happens, don’t panic. When a defenseman gets beaten outside, we can say he’s having an off night or needs to work on things. When he gets beaten inside, as happened to Bouchard (requiring a slash from his partner), the player either isn’t good enough (I don’t buy that) or may not be 100 percent. It’s August. He didn’t show well at all. Canada plays again today, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the coaching staff give him another start. Noah Dobson looks miles better in this tournament. Don’t panic, and please remember that I said don’t panic while also advising that you do not panic during this time of what I assume will be extreme panic. Thanks.

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129 Responses to "A Trip to Reasonable"

  1. frjohnk says:

    RE: Bouchard

    So its settled.

    We should trade him while his value is still somewhat high.

  2. dustrock says:

    Bouchard was Canada’s best d-man in his first game.

    Hard to get too excited about an August game and I’m curious to see his skills against pros in training camp.

    But yeah, it seems like most of that time his reads are fine but he avoids puck battles and he’s getting walked.

    Is he not engaged defensively because it’s August and he mostly doesn’t want to get hurt, or is he one of those guys who just isn’t into D.

    Someone on HFB said he looked a bit like Pulock coming out of junior, all offence, no defence, and it took Pulock time to develop.

    If Bouchard can work on his skating and defensive coverage, I tjijn think his ceiling is somewhere around Dougie Hamilton.

    What’s his floor? Someone like Cody Franson maybe?

  3. flyfish1168 says:

    I would like to see Evan play. What tournament did he play yesterday and How would I watch today’s game?

  4. Ben says:

    Not panicking! But Bouchard looked like Justin Schultz gargled a tall glass of tryptophan last night.

    Loved the pick, feel better about the drafting–now we see if the org is figuring out development. Wish they could put him in the A.

    On one hand, it’s great that PC didn’t overpay (again) for RHD help this summer. On the other hand, he may be assuming that Bouchard is the answer this year, a strategy that (*checks last decade of standings*) hasn’t been working out too well for this team.

  5. Lowetide says:

    One reason I think he was off last night is he wasn’t passing well. He’s a sharp passer, and with one exception his sights were off. I don’t think the scouting reports talked about his rugged play, so that isn’t going to be part of the resume I expect.

  6. Lowetide says:

    flyfish1168:
    I would like to see Evan play. What tournament did he play yesterday and How would I watch today’s game?

    3pm Edmonton time, TSN. It’s the WJ summer showcase.

  7. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LT,

    So the table is EV TOI/gm in the top 6 and not total EV TOI/gm?

  8. dustrock says:

    Lowetide:
    One reason I think he was off last night is he wasn’t passing well. He’s a sharp passer, and with one exception his sights were off. I don’t think the scouting reports talked about his rugged play, so that isn’t going to be part of the resume I expect.

    I mean, these aren’t exactly high quality games by any stretch of the imagination and he’s not the only one who has flattered to deceive.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    LT,

    So the table is EV TOI/gm in the top 6 and not total EV TOI/gm?

    Exactly. All of McDavid, Leon and Nuge’s minutes appear here, but Jesse Puljujarvi’s minutes are here and in the bottom 6F. They are split.

  10. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    Did McLeod play?

  11. frjohnk says:

    Looking at how the Oilers got points in the last two years after regulation

    Shootout
    16-17 Oilers were 4-5
    17-18 Oilers were 5-1

    OT 3 on 3
    16-17 Oilers were 6-4
    17-18 Oilers were 7-5

    So overall, in extra time
    16-17 Oilers were 10-9
    17-18 Oilers were 12-6

    EDIT: I believe the Oilers will improve this coming year, but it will be hard to beat last years extra time

  12. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    You can’t just say “Manny Viveiros will fix it” and call it a day

    *clears throat*

    Yes you can.

    Maybe not add back all 25 goals, but its probably not far off.

    EDM’s 5v4 GF/60
    Season GF/60
    14-15 6.10
    15-16 6.31
    16-17 8.02
    17-18 5.14

    Even going back to pre-97 days the 5.14 is uggggggly.

    I don’t think they can repeat that result even if they put a broken handed York at the point.

    It probably won’t come all the way back to 8, but I think you can bank on high 6’s given the talent, desire to set last year’s results on fire and some new voices and ideas.

    The other key metric to projecting more 5v4 goals is 5v4 TOI:

    Season TOI
    14-15 374.05
    15-16 399.62
    16-17 389.23
    17-18 349.98

    I don’t know if the refs were punishing EDM for McDavid’s “go upstairs” thing, or because of the ANA debacle or reasons unknown, but last year is an outlier in terms of 5v4 TOI and I wouldn’t expect that to repeat either.

    So if we spitball a reasonable 380 5v4 minutes and a reasonable 6.8 GF/60 we get 43 5v4 goals.

    That’s probably not *that* far off.

    Now, if Manny “Actual PP Witch” Vivierios can get them over 7 GF/60 watch out!!

    The sky is extra blue this morning.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Well Oiled and Enthusiastic:
    Did McLeod play?

    Yes. Had a couple of looks, but was not a feature player.

  14. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Exactly. All of McDavid, Leon and Nuge’s minutes appear here, but Jesse Puljujarvi’s minutes are here and in the bottom 6F. They are split.

    Got it.

  15. Lowetide says:

    dustrock: I mean, these aren’t exactly high quality games by any stretch of the imagination and he’s not the only one who has flattered to deceive.

    He’s not being used in his normal role, either. He seemed to be getting No. 2 power-play work.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, 147 minutes for Strome with McDavid last year and that’s all situations. It was 56 minutes at even strength and the lack of time together is a bit mind-boggling.

    Firstly, there was so much verbal in the off-season about Strome playing on the McDavid line (and about the need for him to increase his willingness to shoot to the levels he did early in his career).

    They started pre-season together and it last about a game and a half and, essentially, the combo was never given another shot at evens.

    56 minutes is basically a throwaway sample size but if one does look at their numbers, they are very very good and I’m not sure why this was not explored more.

    As we’ve discussed before, Strome did well with both McDavid and Leon at even and, in fact, both Leon and McDavid did better with Strome than withouth.

  17. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Swift Current Broncos PP efficiency

    Vivireios took over in 16/17

    15/16 19.0% – 15th
    16/17 21.7% – 10th
    17/18 29.4% – 1st

    Players play a big part in this as well, but the man’s PP was other worldy last year.

    No question it ran hot, but his PP was described to me as “orchestrated chaos” with all of the player movement on it.

    I’m pretty excited to see what he can do with this group.

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    56 minutes is basically a throwaway sample size but if one does look at their numbers, they are very very good and I’m not sure why this was not explored more.

    Based on examining McLellan’s coaching record in terms of player’s TOI and slotting on the roster I think it boils down to this:

    1) McLellan wants to play his 6 best forwards the most.

    2) He also wanted to have his best C option at 3C without changing #1

    The only way to do that is to have Strome at 3C

    I wonder if having Brodziak on the roster changes that?

    I wonder if Brodziak starts well that McLellan gets tempted to run him at 3C and put Strome at 1 or 2 RW?

    I supposed it will depend on what the RW are accomplishing to start the year.

  19. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I don’t know if the refs were punishing EDM for McDavid’s “go upstairs” thing, or because of the ANA debacle or reasons unknown, but last year is an outlier in terms of 5v4 TOI and I wouldn’t expect that to repeat either.

    This is related
    -45 in PD last year didnt help
    +22 year before

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    “I have Kailer Yamamoto taking over the No. 1 right wing job from Ty Rattie at mid-season, and Jesse Puljujarvi grabbing the No. 2 RW job. It could be vice versa, but it’s coming. The competition isn’t strong enough to hold back the water.”

    ___________________________________________________________

    Here is hoping that Kailer and Jesse are 1/2 RW based on merit and not lack of competition.

    We are banking on those two being the top 2 right wingers going forward and I am confident it will happen, the question is when?

    I believe that Jesse will establish himself as a top 6 winger this season, as soon as he’s given the chance – I believe he should start the season as 2RW (or even 1RW) and Rieder on the third line – we’ll see of the coaching staff agrees.

    Yamamoto is a wild card for this year. I agree that Rattie won’t hold on to the 1RW spot, his skating and all-around game will start to be a drag on the line. I’m not sure if Kailer will be ready for that spot but, at the same time, even if he isn’t, he could likely produce zoomed by McDavid.

    Personally, I don’t want Kailer rushed, if he’s not ready for the top 6 when Rattie needs to be demoted, then I say Jesse goes up to 1RW (unless he’s struggling or the chemistry is too great with Leon) and someone like Aberg (or Rieder) given a shot at 2RW.

  21. Bryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    You can’t just say “Manny Viveiros will fix it” and call it a day

    *clears throat*

    Yes you can.

    Maybe not add back all 25 goals, but its probably not far off.

    EDM’s 5v4 GF/60
    SeasonGF/60
    14-156.10
    15-166.31
    16-178.02
    17-185.14

    Even going back to pre-97 days the 5.14 is uggggggly.

    I don’t think they can repeat that result even if they put a broken handed York at the point.

    It probably won’t come all the way back to 8, but I think you can bank on high 6’s given the talent, desire to set last year’s results on fire and some new voices and ideas.

    The other key metric to projecting more 5v4 goals is 5v4 TOI:

    SeasonTOI
    14-15374.05
    15-16399.62
    16-17389.23
    17-18349.98

    I don’t know if the refs were punishing EDM for McDavid’s “go upstairs” thing, or because of the ANA debacle or reasons unknown, but last year is an outlier in terms of 5v4 TOI and I wouldn’t expect that to repeat either.

    So if we spitball a reasonable 380 5v4 minutes and a reasonable 6.8 GF/60 we get 43 5v4 goals.

    That’s probably not *that* far off.

    Now, if Manny “Actual PP Witch” Vivierios can get them over 7 GF/60 watch out!!

    The sky is extra blue this morning.

    All sounds reasonable to me.👍

  22. frjohnk says:

    A little look into special teams
    While the PK was horrendous last year, we did score 11 shorties last year.
    We had 4 the year before.

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: This is related
    -45 in PD last year didnt help
    +22 year before

    Bizarre.

    In the NHL “lets make sure the penalties are even” league, that’s a big sore thumb

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    McDavid’s season last year is even more remarkable if you note that his 84 even strength points are 18 more than second place (66 for Giroux).

    They are also the most even strength points scored in a season this century (83 for Henrick in 2009/10 and 78 for Jagr in 2000/01).

    Just amazing.

    Can’t wait for him (and the team ) to improve on the PP – subject to health, this player is going to put up remarkable numbers.

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Karlsson and VGK settle on 1 year $5.25.

    I wouldn’t go long on Karlsson yet either.

  26. Bryan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    “I have Kailer Yamamoto taking over the No. 1 right wing job from Ty Rattie at mid-season, and Jesse Puljujarvi grabbing the No. 2 RW job. It could be vice versa, but it’s coming. The competition isn’t strong enough to hold back the water.”

    ___________________________________________________________

    Here is hoping that Kailer and Jesse are 1/2 RW based on merit and not lack of competition.

    We are banking on those two being the top 2 right wingers going forward and I am confident it will happen, the question is when?

    I believe that Jesse will establish himself as a top 6 winger this season, as soon as he’s given the chance – I believe he should start the season as 2RW (or even 1RW) and Rieder on the third line – we’ll see of the coaching staff agrees.

    Yamamoto is a wild card for this year.I agree that Rattie won’t hold on to the 1RW spot, his skating and all-around game will start to be a drag on the line. I’m not sure if Kailer will be ready for that spot but, at the same time, even if he isn’t, he could likely produce zoomed by McDavid.

    Personally, I don’t want Kailer rushed, if he’s not ready for the top 6 when Rattie needs to be demoted, then I say Jesse goes up to 1RW (unless he’s struggling or the chemistry is too great with Leon) and someone like Aberg (or Rieder) given a shot at 2RW.

    I feel like Jesse will grasp a top six role this year and refuse to let go. On the other hand counting on Yamamoto to fill that role already is what bad teams do. If he is up for the task then we’re golden but hopefully that isn’t plan A.

  27. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    McDavid’s season last year is even more remarkable if you note that his 84 even strength points are 18 more than second place (66 for Giroux).

    They are also the most even strength points scored in a season this century (83 for Henrick in 2009/10 and 78 for Jagr in 2000/01).

    Just amazing.

    Can’t wait for him (and the team ) to improve on the PP – subject to health, this player is going to put up remarkable numbers.

    Imagine if he had a 1st line caliber RW and a 1st line caliber LW playing with him at the same time?

    *fans self*

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    Some on other platforms have questioned Bouchard’s skating because the got beat by speed a few times last night (they didn’t watch so were asking the question).

    I don’t believe skating is an issue for Bouchard defending the rush but I wonder if defensive intensity, and overall intensity, are an issue for him.

    Playing 30 plus minutes per night in London, is it possible Bouchard learned bad habits relating to conserving energy and resting while on the ice – things that won’t work at the next level?

  29. Bryan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    McDavid’s season last year is even more remarkable if you note that his 84 even strength points are 18 more than second place (66 for Giroux).

    They are also the most even strength points scored in a season this century (83 for Henrick in 2009/10 and 78 for Jagr in 2000/01).

    Just amazing.

    Can’t wait for him (and the team ) to improve on the PP – subject to health, this player is going to put up remarkable numbers.

    Those other two players had consistently higher quality line mates as well.

  30. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Hard to argue against referee bias when you look at those 5v4 TOI comparisons. With McDavid flying around out there, you’d think those numbers would be trending in the opposite direction.

    By eye, it did seem like Connor was having to play through a LOT of obstruction last season. These numbers tells me MacLellan needs to be more vocal with the refs about the non-calls. Slats was not an HC that was loved by the refs, but he fought like hell to get the Great One breathing room. Sometimes the guy behind the bench needs to be a bit of prick and sometimes Katz needs to eat a fine or two so that the league gets the message.

    Imagine a world where Connor starts to get substantially more of the noncalls going his way. That could lift all boats and blow LT’s RE out of the water.

  31. Bryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Karlsson and VGK settle on 1 year $5.25.

    I wouldn’t go long on Karlsson yet either.

    He had a ridiculous shooting percentage but I sure saw him good last year. A very creative and hard working player. You’re right that it’s wise to proceed with caution on a long term deal though.

  32. Westchester Oil says:

    frjohnk:
    Looking at how the Oilers got points in the last two years after regulation

    Shootout
    16-17 Oilers were 4-5
    17-18 Oilers were 5-1

    OT 3 on 3
    16-17 Oilers were 6-4
    17-18 Oilers were 7-5

    So overall, in extra time
    16-17 Oilers were 10-9
    17-18 Oilers were 12-6

    EDIT: I believe the Oilers will improve this coming year, but it will be hard to beat last years extra time

    IMHO, reasonable expectations have the Oilers winning 50% of shootouts (because it is essentially a coin-tossing exercise) and 60%+ of 3-on-3 (because McDavid).

  33. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Bizarre.

    In the NHL “lets make sure the penalties are even” league, that’s a big sore thumb

    Oops it was -35 last year

  34. Westchester Oil says:

    LT – curious as to your rationale for Caggiula only playing 51 games. That’s a lot of allowance for injuries unless you think he will have significant press box time. I”m hoping for the latter.

  35. frjohnk says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Hard to argue against referee bias when you look at those 5v4 TOI comparisons. With McDavid flying around out there, you’d think those numbers would be trending in the opposite direction.

    By eye, it did seem like Connor was having to play through a LOT of obstruction last season. These numbers tells me MacLellan needs to be more vocal with the refs about the non-calls. Slats was not an HC that was loved by the refs, but he fought like hell to get the Great One breathing room. Sometimes the guy behind the bench needs to be a bit of prick and sometimes Katz needs to eat a fine or two so that the league gets the message.

    Imagine a world where Connor starts to get substantially more of the noncalls going his way. That could lift all boats and blow LT’s RE out of the water.

    McDavid drew 36 penalties last year, which was 7th highest in the league.

    The guy that drew the most was Tom Wilson, who drew 52. Though Im guessing a bunch of these were coincidentals as he took 56 penalties.

  36. frjohnk says:

    These were the guys with the worst PD on the Oilers

    Milan Lucic -19
    Zack Kassian -12
    Darnell Nurse -11
    Adam Larsson -10
    Ryan Strome -9
    Patrick Maroon -7
    Eric Gryba -7
    Matthew Benning -4
    Mike Cammalleri -4
    Mark Letestu -4

    These are the guys with a positive penalty differential
    Connor McDavid 29
    Leon Draisaitl 6
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 5
    Kris Russell5
    Anton Slepyshev 5
    Pontus Aberg 3
    Kailer Yamamoto 3
    Ty Rattie 2

    I believe PD is an underrated stat. I can understand Dmen have a – number, but forwards, especially bottom 6 forwards who have big – numbers really harm the team. Think of it this way. You have a player that is -20 in PD and the team has a 80% PK rate, that player on average helped contribute to 4 goals against. And if he is in the bottom 6 and does not score much, he really is not helping the team.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Hard to argue against referee bias when you look at those 5v4 TOI comparisons. With McDavid flying around out there, you’d think those numbers would be trending in the opposite direction.

    By eye, it did seem like Connor was having to play through a LOT of obstruction last season. These numbers tells me MacLellan needs to be more vocal with the refs about the non-calls. Slats was not an HC that was loved by the refs, but he fought like hell to get the Great One breathing room. Sometimes the guy behind the bench needs to be a bit of prick and sometimes Katz needs to eat a fine or two so that the league gets the message.

    Imagine a world where Connor starts to get substantially more of the noncalls going his way. That could lift all boats and blow LT’s RE out of the water.

    The rate of penalties called against McDavid was appalling last year:

    Individual Penalties Drawn/60 for McDavid

    15/16 1.34 – 16th in NHL
    16/17 1.83 – 4th in NHL
    17/18 1.22 – 32nd in NHL – What The Actual Fuck?

    How the hell does a player who gets fouled twice on each shift rank 32nd in the NHL in penalties drawn/60?

    I guess he shouldn’t point “upstairs” anymore.

  38. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    You can’t just say “Manny Viveiros will fix it” and call it a day

    *clears throat*

    Yes you can.

    Maybe not add back all 25 goals, but its probably not far off.

    EDM’s 5v4 GF/60
    SeasonGF/60
    14-156.10
    15-166.31
    16-178.02
    17-185.14

    Even going back to pre-97 days the 5.14 is uggggggly.

    I don’t think they can repeat that result even if they put a broken handed York at the point.

    It probably won’t come all the way back to 8, but I think you can bank on high 6’s given the talent, desire to set last year’s results on fire and some new voices and ideas.

    The other key metric to projecting more 5v4 goals is 5v4 TOI:

    SeasonTOI
    14-15374.05
    15-16399.62
    16-17389.23
    17-18349.98

    I don’t know if the refs were punishing EDM for McDavid’s “go upstairs” thing, or because of the ANA debacle or reasons unknown, but last year is an outlier in terms of 5v4 TOI and I wouldn’t expect that to repeat either.

    So if we spitball a reasonable 380 5v4 minutes and a reasonable 6.8 GF/60 we get 43 5v4 goals.

    That’s probably not *that* far off.

    Now, if Manny “Actual PP Witch” Vivierios can get them over 7 GF/60 watch out!!

    The sky is extra blue this morning.

    Let’s hope your predictions are more than just
    ‘Blue Skying’

  39. godot10 says:

    frjohnk: This is related
    -45 in PD last year didnt help
    +22 year before

    The OIlers got rid of all the guys who drew penalties and had a positive differential and kept a bunch of negative penalty differential guys. It wasn’t entirely an accident or bad luck or biased officiating.

  40. HT Joe says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The rate of penalties called against McDavid was appalling last year:

    Individual Penalties Drawn/60 for McDavid

    15/16 1.34 – 16th in NHL
    16/17 1.83 – 4th in NHL
    17/18 1.22 – 32nd in NHL – What The Actual Fuck?

    How the hell does a player who gets fouled twice on each shift rank 32nd in the NHL in penalties drawn/60?

    I guess he shouldn’t point “upstairs” anymore.

    In the regard of fairness and reffing, the NHL really makes it difficult to enjoy some games.

    Luckily, nowhere near as bad as watching soccer players flopping on the ground as though they were shot (I gave up watching that sport years ago shortly after an avid fan defensively described flailing on the ground as “gamesmanship”).

  41. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Karlsson and VGK settle on 1 year $5.25.

    I wouldn’t go long on Karlsson yet either.

    I’m surprised that Karlsson agreed to a 1 year

  42. godot10 says:

    Pescador: I’m surprised that Karlsson agreed to a 1 year

    He had opted for arbitration. So a one year deal was likely. Vegas would not ask for a 2-year arbitration award because that would take Karlsson to UFA status.

  43. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    McDavid’s season last year is even more remarkable if you note that his 84 even strength points are 18 more than second place (66 for Giroux).

    They are also the most even strength points scored in a season this century (83 for Henrick in 2009/10 and 78 for Jagr in 2000/01).

    Just amazing.

    Can’t wait for him (and the team ) to improve on the PP – subject to health, this player is going to put up remarkable numbers.

    First off: GREAT COMMENTARY by everybody. Thanks LT. Thanks guys

    I did a pre & post All Star breakdown one day on here. His post All star ppg was exceptional.

    Joe Thornton had 125 Points in 2006. Most this century.

    Given 82 games of health; I believe McDavid will beat that # this season.

    RNH is a legit skill LW for him. Once KY or JP joins the RW party; look out.

  44. Paulie says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    The 84 pts is even more amazing considering how sick McD was early in the season. 70% of Connor > just about everyone else.

  45. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Was just about to post this, look at the actual percentage taken off, when you’d think he’d draw /more/ penalties than 16/17.

    Become a better, more dangerous player – haha fuck you draw 33% less calls.

    Oilers fans shouldn’t have to look these numbers up, someone should eat a fine making them public knowledge until it’s fixed.

    Carlyle got penalty immunity for obstucting McDavid by pre-emptively talking about white gloves in the 16/17 playoffs.

    Gallant got the refs after the Sharks for pick plays by saying something aftee G1 of their series in the 17/18 series.

    McDavid will have to play through this so long as they say nothing.

  46. jtblack says:

    Manny is a few years away from being an NHL Head Coach. He’s that Good!!!

    And I think he WILL fix the PP. As WG pointed out; regression to the mean will help the PP anyway. But better systems and player deployment (No Letestube), will also give the PP a bump.

    The key is that Manny will unlock McD’s PP vision and Greatness (ie: like Devils with Hall). Connor could put up closer to 40 PP points.

    Go Manny. Go Oilers

  47. HT Joe says:

    Wilde: McDavid will have to play through this so long as they say nothing.

    Good ol’ TMac… always sticking up for that team in orange.

  48. Coffeys_Messy_eh says:

    godot10,

    Some actual names and numbers here would go a long way to giving your argument credibility.

  49. Lowetide says:

    Ducks lock up John Gibson for 8 years via John Shannon. $6,4 million AAV

  50. Lowetide says:

    Gibson is very good btw. I don’t like spending big money on goalies.

  51. Wilde says:

    Lowetide:
    Gibson is very good btw. I don’t like spending big money on goalies.

    I feel like it’s one of those things where if you have Gibson you can get away with it, just by not having much bad money on the books.

    Most GMs could stand to break some rules and overpay some stars/have a lot more money tied up in stars if they just… don’t have the seemingly standard bottom 6ers with NMCs and term and cash.

    The Ducks are in a weird spot where they’ve got stuff like this:

    Perry @ 8.675AAV -> 2021 (Age 33 now)

    Kesler @ 6.875AAV -> 2022 (Age 33 now)

    Henrique @ 5.585AAV -> 2024 (Age 28 now)

    But then they’ve also got a top four of Linholm, Fowler, Manson, Montour for <20M total.

  52. lynn says:

    It’s interesting that Manny Viveiros coached Jujhar’s brother, Sahvan, in Swift Current last season. This could be a positive situation for Jujhar in the development of his game. Time will tell.

  53. godot10 says:

    Coffeys_Messy_eh:
    godot10,

    Some actual names and numbers here would go a long way to giving your argument credibility.

    Eberle, Pouliot, Lander, Pitlick

  54. jtblack says:

    Wilde: I feel like it’s one of those things where if you have Gibson you can get away with it, just by not having much bad money on the books.

    Most GMs could stand to break some rules and overpay some stars/have a lot more money tied up in stars if they just… don’t have random seemingly standard bottom 6ers with NMCs and term and cash.

    The Ducks are in a weird spot where they’ve got stuff like this:

    Perry @ 8.675AAV -> 2021 (Age 33 now)

    Kesler @ 6.875AAV -> 2022 (Age 33 now)

    Henrique @ 5.585AAV -> 2024 (Age 28 now)

    But then they’ve also got a top four of Linholm, Fowler, Manson, Montour for2022.

    Ducks also have Rackell @ $3.8 Mil for 4 more years.

    He’s coming off 33 and 34 Goal seasons.

    One of best Value contracts in NHL.

  55. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    Ducks lock up John Gibson for 8 years via John Shannon. $6,4 million AAV

    Considering Price is at $10.5 million, this is a great number for Anaheim.

  56. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador: I’m surprised that Karlsson agreed to a 1 year

    They were on their way to arb so it would have been one anyhow

  57. jtblack says:

    Lowetide:
    Gibson is very good btw. I don’t like spending big money on goalies.

    Gibson is 25. Cap hit seems “reasonable”. Gibsons SV% is at the top end He is Legit IMHO & entering his Prime.

    I do not like giving $10 mil per year to an over the hill Carey Price; but do like this signing.

  58. Wilde says:

    jtblack: Ducks also have Rackell @ $3.8 Mil for 4 more years.

    He’s coming off 33 and 34 Goal seasons.

    One of best Value contracts in NHL.

    Yeah that was just a strange decision by his agent.

    Just broke out and got TOI, put up 20 goals with it?

    Time to sign a 6 year contract.

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide:
    Gibson is very good btw. I don’t like spending big money on goalies.

    Especially one with a wonky groin.

    I have him as the 2nd best goalie in the Pacific (behind Raanta) though.

    He and their top 4 (assuming Montour pans out…I think he will) should keep them in the playoff conversation for a long time.

    Murray needs to “Lou” the Kesler and Perry contracts though….

  60. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: Ducks also have Rackell @ $3.8 Mil for 4 more years.

    He’s coming off 33 and 34 Goal seasons.

    One of best Value contracts in NHL.

    They’ve also got Kase coming off his ELC.

    I have Kase as a high end winger (not All Star, but very good) who will score well.

    I bet they go long and cheap on him too.

    Kase is to ANA what we hope Safin and Maksimov will be.

    Kase was 7th round #205 in 2014 draft

    *counts fingers*

    So that means we should hope so see Safin/Maksimov make a difference in EDM in 20/21.

  61. Georgexs says:

    frjohnk:
    These were the guys with the worst PD on the Oilers

    Milan Lucic-19
    Zack Kassian-12
    Darnell Nurse-11
    Adam Larsson-10
    Ryan Strome-9
    Patrick Maroon-7
    Eric Gryba-7
    Matthew Benning-4
    Mike Cammalleri-4
    Mark Letestu-4

    These are the guys with a positive penalty differential
    Connor McDavid29
    Leon Draisaitl6
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins5
    Kris Russell5
    Anton Slepyshev5
    Pontus Aberg3
    Kailer Yamamoto3
    Ty Rattie2

    I believe PD is an underrated stat.I can understand Dmen have a – number, but forwards, especially bottom 6 forwards who have big – numbers really harm the team.Think of it this way.You have a player that is -20 in PD and the team has a 80% PK rate, that player on average helped contribute to 4 goals against.And if he is in the bottom 6 and does not score much, he really is not helping the team.

    Where are you getting your numbers? I’m pulling the data off of nhl. (Penalties and Points/Penalties per 60) I have CMD at 27, not 29. Leon at 4, not 6. Other discrepancies as well.

  62. Georgexs says:

    That’s a healthy look for Rattie in the top 6.

  63. jtblack says:

    Wilde: Yeah that was just a strange decision by his agent.

    Just broke out and got TOI, put up 20 goals with it?

    Time to sign a 6 year contract.

    Just shows each long term deal is a risk / reward on both sides.

    Anaheim Nailed this deal. Now we can say, Rakell could be worth waaay more, but at the time hs agent prob said look “The average career is 4 yrs, there are no gurantees. Let’s take $23 Mil and run”.

    So Rakell is set for Life Financially and Anaheim has him for a song. WIN- WIN

  64. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Westchester Oil,

    Going off the chart? As I interpret it, 51 games represents LT’s projection of DC’s time in the top 6.

  65. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They’ve also got Kase coming off his ELC.

    I have Kase as a high end winger (not All Star, but very good) who will score well.

    I bet they go long and cheap on him too.

    Kase is to ANA what we hope Safin and Maksimov will be.

    Kase was 7th round #205 in 2014 draft

    *counts fingers*

    So that means we should hope so see Safin/Maksimov make a difference in EDM in 20/21.

    Maybe Pete can lock up JP on a value deal if JP stays under 25 Goals this season.

    Wait; has Pete ever signed a value deal?

  66. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Laggesson getting some love today at CoH, ranked #16 in this year’s prospect list, up from #21 last year. Projected as a bottom pairing shutdown d-man with the ability to make a solid outlet pass, possibly arriving as soon as 2019-20. Biggest question mark is skating, which I believe SwedishPoster has said isn’t a negative but isn’t an advantage either (please confirm or deny, going off memory).

  67. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jtblack,

    Khaira
    Kelfbom
    Davidson
    Talbot
    *Russell

    All strong signings, relative levels of value.
    *the 16/17 contract

    If Rattie has a big year, that’s another value contract. McDavid is a positive value at any price.

  68. frjohnk says:

    Georgexs: Where are you getting your numbers? I’m pulling the data off of nhl. (Penalties and Points/Penalties per 60) I have CMD at 27, not 29. Leon at 4, not 6. Other discrepancies as well.

    natural stat trick. I used all strengths.

    EDIT: I do see that NHL.com and natural stat trick numbers do not jive well. But I do notice that NHL.com has only minor penalties drawn while Nat looks at all penalties.

    So if somebody high sticked a player and got 5 minutes, that would not show up in NHL.coms numbers.

  69. Jordan says:

    jtblack: Maybe Pete can lock up JP on a value deal if JP stays under 25 Goals this season.

    Wait; has Pete ever signed a value deal?

    Connor McDavids entry level deal was all value.

    Bennings deals ha e also been good value.

    Same could be said for brodziak, strome and Reider this summer.

    He doesn’t seem to get value for the highest end players though… Excepting of course the bettman special for CMD

  70. frjohnk says:

    jtblack: has Pete ever signed a value deal?

    McDavid

  71. Munny says:

    My Gord, if people are freaking out about Bouchard in a single meaningless August game I wonder what we’ve learned here over the past 12 years.

    Maybe Buffalo fans should be concerned about “generational defenseman” Dahlin going pointless on a gazillion powerplays?

    The hockey is nearly unwatchable. The games are giving us very little useful information about the players and a shitload of unuseful information.

  72. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Kase was 7th round #205 in 2014 draft

    The Kase to Maksimov equivalency is a really neat idea.

    A little extra context on this: Ondrej Kase was the #8 ranked EU skater going into that draft.

    Should never have gone in the 7th.

    (Swedish Sebastian Aho was #9, went undrafted till 2017 and was one of the best rookie D in the AHL last year)

    There’s a little tuning involved between each EU league but generally if a player checks these boxes in some way they should be a top ~50 pick:

    – Hang around 0.7 -> 1.0 PPG in their U20 league at D-1 year

    – Trash their U20 league in their draft year and get promoted to SHL/Allsvenskan/SM-Liiga/Mestis/Extraliga

    – If they’re small or late birthday or both they’ll likely stay in the U20 league, this is fine as long as they go 1.0+ PPG in that league (Berggren, Nordgren this year)

    Kase was a 6’0 November guy, so he went to the ExtraLiga. Checks the boxes, should have absolutely gone in the 2nd round somewhere.

    Don’t look now, he’s 17th in points and a markedly better player (imo) than some guys ahead of him like Nick Ritchie and Sam Bennett.

    In this context, I don’t really see anything too blatant in Maksimov’s numbers that say he went way too late at the draft.

    It’s just really good scouting imo.

    The 22p (15G) in 29 games after the switch to Niagara, as a June birthday is the main thing.

    From there it’s basically just betting on his shooting being legit, and it was.

    Just quality scouting, especially compared to Oilers’ past.

    As we know, though, Maksimov hard spiked this year.

    Using Emmanuel Perry’s draft app,

    ————————————–

    Kirill Maksimov at age 19.30:

    League NHLe – 0.16

    Adj Points: 13.99

    Prob make the NHL: 60.92%

    Proj. WAR/82: 0.40

    ————————————–

    Ondrej Kase, age 19.87:

    League NHLe: 0.25

    Adj P: 11.37

    Prob make the NHL: 49.87%

    Proj. WAR/82: 0.34

    ————————————–

    I went into that thinking Kase would win out via men’s league higher equivalency.

    Huh.

  73. frjohnk says:

    Wilde,

    thanks for this.

  74. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde,

    Cool stuff, thanks.

    *crosses fingers*

  75. Wilde says:

    Another EU guy that went too late is the Knight’s 5th rounder in 2017, Lucas Elvenes.

    Asides from having a fantastic name, he’s an August birthday who hit by parameters for a top~50 pick.

    – 14 pts in 21 games in D-1 year in the Swedish SuperElit

    – 45 pts in 41 games in draft year in SuperElit

    He /turns/ 19 in a couple weeks and here’s what he did this year:

    – 21 pts in 22 games in the Allsvenskan

    – 16 pts in 28 games in the SHL

    That puts him in the neighbourhood with the non-Petersson/Tolvanen first round picks of 2017(Chytil, Andersson, Vesalainen). Very, very good numbers in some very good leagues as a true 18 year old.

    Vegas could have had two legendary franchise opening drafts if they had enough balls to sell Neal and Perron and not get Tatar.

    Probably would have still made the finals off of the top line and Fleury, too.

  76. HT Joe says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    He looks like he’s done a ton of offseason work. Looks faster.

    Any idea how much he weighs now? Rick has made comments in the past about mass / height being a variable to consider (was it for durability? – sorry Ricki, I forget)

  77. Pescador says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    jtblack,

    Khaira
    Kelfbom
    Davidson
    Talbot
    *Russell

    All strong signings, relative levels of value.
    *the 16/17 contract

    If Rattie has a big year, that’s another value contract.McDavid is a positive value at any price.

    Will 2 years of Nurse at let’s say $3.875 be considered Value?

  78. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bryan: All sounds reasonable to me.

    Let’s hope!

  79. jtblack says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    jtblack,

    Khaira
    Kelfbom
    Davidson
    Talbot
    *Russell

    All strong signings, relative levels of value.
    *the 16/17 contract

    If Rattie has a big year, that’s another value contract.McDavid is a positive value at any price.

    True Dat

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    HT Joe,

    For all things JP I follow @kulta64 on twitter.

    She’s a Finn splitting time between New York and Finland.

    She’s as protective of JP as his own Mother.

  81. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They’ve also got Kase coming off his ELC.

    I have Kase as a high end winger (not All Star, but very good) who will score well.

    I bet they go long and cheap on him too.

    Kase is to ANA what we hope Safin and Maksimov will be.

    Kase was 7th round #205 in 2014 draft

    *counts fingers*

    So that means we should hope so see Safin/Maksimov make a difference in EDM in 20/21.

    Let’s say the Oilers picked Safin in the second round where some analysts projected.
    Not nearly as exciting.
    Maksimov though,
    I need to calm myself,
    *fans face*

  82. jtblack says:

    Bouchard will be best served with another year of Junior. Only a few draftees play that same year; they are the Freakos. Bouchard xan work on whatever the team wants him too; First step , D zone coveragr , etc

  83. Georgexs says:

    godot10: Eberle, Pouliot, Lander, Pitlick

    Yes, no, no, no.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bouchard, McLeon and Rodrigue, all scratched for Team Canada today – blah.

  85. Todd Macallan says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Ex Flame coaching, enough said.

  86. Pescador says:

    Georgexs: Yes, no, no, no.

    “Do you have plans on Saturday?”
    “Can i meet you there?”
    “Can i call you sometime?”
    “Can I…..?”
    Every conversation I ever had with a girl in high school,
    #loser

  87. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Pescador,

    At current levels of production, sure. If he finds another gear, absolutely.

    Anything under $4M is a bargain to my eye. It’s the next contract that could really sting. Hopefully Darnell doesn’t price himself off the team, but if that happens it’s because he takes another step forward in his development. That’s a better problem to have then wondering why yet another high draft pick didn’t reach his potential.

  88. Richard S.S. says:

    Players who have made the Team get a lot of “time off” between the end of their Playoffs and the next time they play games that matter. Not making the Playoffs adds to the “time off” those Players received.

    Borderline Players usually have more “work” to do to make the Team. Their games that matter usually start as soon as the arrive at Training Camp. Sometimes it works and sometimes it don’t.

    Hot young studs like Evan Bouchard, usually strong Roster considerations do not have “time off”. From the last game played, usually through Playoffs, they are playing in every game that maters that it’s possible to play. For hot young studs that can be a huge number of games with little or no “time off” in between.

    What’s the risk?
    1) Making or not making the Team is the single-most issue that exists. They will do everything possible to make that possible.
    2) Getting hurt, but possibly concealing injuries. The body needs time to recover, some more than others. Little injuries get played through because making the Team is all. Little injuries can become significant or even serious injuries that delay or even stall careers.
    3) Too tired to play a top level, usually looks like someone playing poorly. That can have unfortunate consequences: injuries, loss of TOI, change in opinions and more.

    It’s usually a no-win situation for most hot young studs, as most decisions made by the Team are Cap-driven not quality-driven. Decisions on who gets their “nine” should occur early enough before training camp to shut the kids down early so they can do something else during their “time off”

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Speaking of 7th rounders…..

    Phil Kemp is paired with Quinn Hughes for the USA U20 team today vs CAN

    Nice to see

    As per: https://twitter.com/usahockey/status/1025825896723243008

  90. Oilman99 says:

    HT Joe:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    He looks like he’s done a ton of offseason work.Looks faster.

    Any idea how much he weighs now?Rick has made comments in the past about mass / height being a variable to consider (was it for durability? – sorry Ricki, I forget)

    Lets hope the guy delivers, with lack of top six forwards, the team needs somebody to step up big time, or it will be another long winter.

  91. Paddy Morans Jockstrap says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Karlsson and VGK settle on 1 year $5.25.

    I wouldn’t go long on Karlsson yet either.

    Karlsson with a 23.4% SP last season – totally repeatable 🙂

  92. Oilman99 says:

    jtblack: Gibson is 25. Cap hit seems “reasonable”.Gibsons SV% is at the top endHe is Legit IMHO & entering his Prime.

    I do not like giving $10 mil per year to an over the hill Carey Price; but do like this signing.

    Not sure Price is over the hill, he could bounce back big time if they can get his health problems rectified.

  93. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    JP is looking lean andwiry: https://twitter.com/OilersNation/status/1025792490161491968

    Not much/any baby fat left on the 20-year old. I don’t think he has been eating pizza this summer.

  94. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Bouchard, McLeon and Rodrigue, all scratched for Team Canada today – blah.

    If it’s game 8 in 1972 it might mean a lot.

    In August 2018, in the dead of summer when less than 1% of hockey fans are even aware of hockey it’s meaningless. Bouchard’s now a prospect instead of a draft pick. He’s going to need a trajectory to follow before he excels at NHL level which he’s never going to learn in a million hyped up international kiddie games.

    My advice: Go out for a walk in the summer air. if you’re inclined walk to a local bar then sit outside and watch the world pass by.

    Besides, everyone knows it was Buffalo who drafted this season’s wunderkinder. Our lad is going to have to work hard, like Freddie Stanfield had to work hard in the 1971 playoffs.

  95. Georgexs says:

    Wilde:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Was just about to post this, look at the actual percentage taken off, when you’d think he’d draw /more/ penalties than 16/17.

    Become a better, more dangerous player – haha fuck you draw 33% less calls.

    Oilers fans shouldn’t have to look these numbers up, someone should eat a fine making them public knowledge until it’s fixed.

    Carlyle got penalty immunity for obstucting McDavid by pre-emptively talking about white gloves in the 16/17 playoffs.

    Gallant got the refs after the Sharks for pick plays by saying something aftee G1 of their series in the 17/18 series.

    McDavid will have to play through this so long as they say nothing.

    “McDavid will have to play through this so long as they say nothing.”

    Here’s something I posted back in February. I used nhl play by play data. The numbers are a little different from the official nhl stats. I think it’s because some of the play by play files are missing. I updated the 17-18 result.

    —-

    I’ve been exploring a bit. I looked just at minor penalties drawn by a player (i.e., excluding victim less crime like delay of game, too many men, etc.). I calculated the difference between penalties drawn and penalties taken by each player in a season.

    Here’s what I have so far:

    1. Defensemen take more penalties than they draw per minute of ice time. Forwards draw more penalties than they take. The totals for the two groups don’t add up to 0 because of goalies; goalies draw more penalties than they take.

    2. The difference between penalties drawn and taken is negatively (although mildly) correlated with height. Simply put, shorter players are more likely to draw penalties, taller players are more likely to take penalties. This seems to apply for both forwards and defensemen.

    3. The difference between penalties drawn and taken is positively (and again mildly) correlated with a player’s points per game. Let’s say this is a proxy for skill. Then skilled players are more likely to draw penalties than less skilled players.

    4. There’s a small year to year correlation in the difference, suggesting players develop somewhat of a reputation, or they fit a type in the eyes of the referees.

    So the Oilers not being able to draw penalties as a team this season could be a function of their lack of skilled, smaller players (like, ahem, Eberle). And the presence of bigger, less skilled players (like, ahem, Maroon, Kassian, Lucic). Again, if we take PPG as a proxy for skill. Drai, although he’s skilled, may have a tough time on this because of his size (I didn’t look at weight).

    Here are the leaders in minor penalties drawn – minor penalties taken for each season starting with 05-06:

    05, Zherdev, 33
    06, Brown, 39
    07, Brown, 44
    08, Brown, 62
    09, Brown, 56
    10, Hall, 31
    11, Brown, 36
    12, Kadri, 30
    13, Seguin, 23
    14, Kadri, 26
    15, Kadri, 27
    16, McDavid, 36
    17, Gaudreau, 28

    I had the same theory as godot mentions earlier in the thread, i.e., Oilers swapped out smaller, skilled positive penalty differential guys and kept bigger, grittier negative penalty differential guys. I’m not as sure about this anymore. Guys like Lucic, Kass, Maroon, it’s not that they take a lot of penalties – it’s that they don’t draw penalties, i.e., they don’t get calls. Maybe it’s because it’s hard to knock them down, I don’t know. I’ll have to take a closer look.

    And finally, to your point about “McDavid will have to play through this so long as they say nothing.”

    From the data, you can see that, in recent years, the best penalty differential guys are mostly in the 20’s or low 30’s. CMD put up the biggest number (+36) over that time frame. No one is getting to 08-09 Dustin Brown +62 levels. The recent consistency suggests to me some effort on the part of the referees to restrict how high they collectively allow the best differential to get. They’re potentially setting and working within limits. Under this policy, even if we say something, many infractions against CMD will go uncalled.

    One thing CMD could try to do is to take a few more strategic penalties. So he can get more calls later on when it matters. He can also show refs he’s been slashed by waving his hand the way some players do. But he hasn’t been that kind of player so far in his career. Maybe time to get some dirt under the finger nails.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben:
    Not panicking!But Bouchard looked like Justin Schultz gargled a tall glass of tryptophan last night.

    Bouchard is 18.

    Shultz was 22 when he signed with the Oilers.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: He’s not being used in his normal role, either. He seemed to be getting No. 2 power-play work.

    I think Hunter and the management team are looking at players that are bubble players to make the team.

    Bouchard is a lock if he’s not in the NHL.

    Hence PP2 – can’t imagine he won’t be PP1 on the actual team, Ty Smith notwithstanding.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    OriginalPouzar,

    56 minutes is basically a throwaway sample size but if one does look at their numbers, they are very very good and I’m not sure why this was not explored more.

    Based on examining McLellan’s coaching record in terms of player’s TOI and slotting on the roster I think it boils down to this:

    1) McLellan wants to play his 6 best forwards the most.

    2) He also wanted to have his best C option at 3C without changing #1

    The only way to do that is to have Strome at 3C

    I wonder if having Brodziak on the roster changes that?

    I wonder if Brodziak starts well that McLellan gets tempted to run him at 3C and put Strome at 1 or 2 RW?

    I supposed it will depend on what the RW are accomplishing to start the year.

    That is an interesting post and suggestion re: Brodziak and Strome deployment as my first two pieces were about Strome at RW in the top 6 and Brodiak’s potential to move up the lineup for stretches (he was lights out with Steen and Berglund post-deadline last year).

  99. leadfarmer says:

    I’m probably in the minority but paying your starting goalie less than some 2nd line forwards are getting is not big money

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk:
    A little look into special teams
    While the PK was horrendous last year, we did score 11 shorties last year.
    We had 4 the year before.

    The PK:

    – finished the season 25th, not dead last – yes, still very bad but not as horrid as many seem to think for the year

    – 1st in the NHL on the road

    – from February 1 through the end of the year, was the best in the NHL

    – has lost Pakarinan but added Brodziak and Rieder

    I am not concerned about the PK for this year.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bryan: I feel like Jesse will grasp a top six role this year and refuse to let go.On the other hand counting on Yamamoto to fill that role already is what bad teams do.If he is up for the task then we’re golden but hopefully that isn’t plan A.

    Yup, that’s pretty much exactly what my post said, with more verbiage.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Imagine if he had a 1st line caliber RW and a 1st line caliber LW playing with him at the same time?

    *fans self*

    In due time he will, in due time.

    As long as management is smart for another year or two and doesn’t make moves to open up cap and commit that cap to veteran “UFA-aged” wingers, we’ll be able to fill those spots with young, talented top 6 wingers.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: I’m surprised that Karlsson agreed to a 1 year

    In his own words, he’s betting on himself.

  104. jtblack says:

    Oilman99: Not sure Price is over the hill, he could bounce back big time if they can get his health problems rectified.

    Of course anything can happen. But Logic dictates his best years are behind him.

    1) He will be 31 to start season. Goalies generally start to slide after 30
    2) The team in front of him sucks – give up too many Grade A chances
    3) The person who was supposed to Prices best D man, was hurt last year and will niss the first half of season

    All this means its doubtful Price can provide anywhere close to $10.5 mil per year in Value this year and each subseqent year.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    HT Joe,

    For all things JP I follow @kulta64 on twitter.

    She’s a Finn splitting time between New York and Finland.

    She’s as protective of JP as his own Mother.

    Ya, she’s a great follow – loves herself some Jesse (and Temmu).

  106. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    godot10,

    Less pizza, and more of “mom’s meatballs.”

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: If it’s game 8 in 1972 it might mean a lot.

    In August 2018, in the dead of summer when less than 1% of hockey fans are even aware of hockey it’s meaningless. Bouchard’s now a prospect instead of a draft pick. He’s going to need a trajectory to follow before he excels at NHL level which he’s never going to learn in a million hyped up international kiddie games.

    My advice: Go out for a walk in the summer air. if you’re inclined walk to a local bar then sit outside and watch the world pass by.

    Besides, everyone knows it was Buffalo who drafted this season’s wunderkinder. Our lad is going to have to work hard, like Freddie Stanfield had to work hard in the 1971 playoffs.

    I didn’t say it meant anything but I wanted to watch them, or some of them, play so, yes, I’m disapointed.

    I was at the gym at 3am this morning.

    I was at the park at 9:30 am this morning to do HIIT sprints

    I took the dog to Nose Hill Park for an hour walk.

    I appreciate your advise but I think I’ll watch me some hockey in the afternoon if I feel so inclined.

  108. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Georgexs,

    Personally speaking… I prefer Connor’s approach, over say, Crosby’s at the start of their careers. Crosby had to overcome the whiner label before he started to “earn” his calls.

    Connor is keeping his mouth shut (the check upstairs comment being the exception, not the rule) and should be able to earn his calls sooner than later on merit.

  109. Wilde says:

    Georgexs,

    Good information and a strongly supported point.

    I do also believe that penalty differential is capped.

    But if I may amend my point that he will have to play through it until something is said – What I’d like for him to get back to his 16-17 levels. It still won’t be just, but it’s important to maximise the competitive advantage as far as the officials will allow it. There’s goals on the table so long as he’s this far away from the league’s leaders.

  110. Leroy Draisdale says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Players who have made the Team get a lot of “time off” between the end of their Playoffs and the next time they play games that matter.Not making the Playoffs adds to the “time off” those Players received.

    Borderline Players usually have more “work” to do to make the Team. Their games that matter usually start as soon as the arrive at Training Camp.Sometimes it works and sometimes it don’t.

    Hot young studs like Evan Bouchard, usually strong Roster considerations do not have “time off”.From the last game played, usually through Playoffs, they are playing in every game that maters that it’s possible to play.For hot young studs that can be a huge number of games with little or no “time off” in between.

    What’s the risk?
    1) Making or not making the Team is the single-most issue that exists.They will do everything possible to make that possible.
    2) Getting hurt, but possibly concealing injuries. The body needs time to recover, some more than others. Little injuries get played through because making the Team is all. Little injuries can become significant or even serious injuries that delay or even stall careers.
    3) Too tired to play a top level, usually looks like someone playing poorly.That can have unfortunate consequences: injuries, loss of TOI, change in opinions and more.

    It’s usually a no-win situation for most hot young studs, as most decisions made by the Team are Cap-driven not quality-driven.Decisions on who gets their “nine” should occur early enough before training camp to shut the kids down early so they can do something else during their “time off”

    Your “hot young stud” mentions/60 game is strong today 😉

  111. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    JP is looking lean andwiry: https://twitter.com/OilersNation/status/1025792490161491968

    I’d call that gaunt. I hope he can keep his energy up for 82 with that little body fat. I suppose that he loves eating will make it work.

  112. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: In his own words, he’s betting on himself.

    Gotta respect a guy who bets millions on his belief in himself.

  113. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: That is an interesting post and suggestion re: Brodziak and Strome deployment as my first two pieces were about Strome at RW in the top 6 and Brodiak’s potential to move up the lineup for stretches (he was lights out with Steen and Berglund post-deadline last year).

    I honestly haven’t read C&B for a long time.

    Great minds and all.

    I have no problem linking to posts that get me thinking and will if I read your stuff and it spurs something.

  114. ArmchairGM says:

    My post-Christmas-lines-wish:

    Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi
    Khaira – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
    Lucic – Strome – Rieder

  115. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Pescador: “Do you have plans on Saturday?”
    “Can i meet you there?”
    “Can i call you sometime?”
    “Can I…..?”
    Every conversation I ever had with a girl in high school,
    #loser

    This made me laugh, right out loud. Perfect reply!

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    My post-Christmas-lines-wish:

    Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi
    Khaira – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
    Lucic – Strome – Rieder

    Agreed – although I’d probably switch Lucic and Khaira as that would/should mean a bounce back season is happening.

    If we can get enough from some wingers to keep Rieder on the third line, I think that would be a good thing.

  117. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I didn’t say it meant anything but I wanted to watch them, or some of them, play so, yes, I’m disapointed.
    I was at the gym at 3am this morning.

    430am is my limit.

    OriginalPouzar: I was at the park at 9:30 am this morning to do HIIT sprints
    I took the dog to Nose Hill Park for an hour walk.

    With respect, that’s not a park. It’s more like a small sized state.

    OriginalPouzar: I appreciate your advice but I think I’ll watch me some hockey in the afternoon if I feel so inclined.

    Don’t let me stop you!

    More fool me: Trying to talk big to the summer time crowd who as shown here eat my lunch.

  118. Melvis says:

    Pescador,

    That’s funny…but here’s the thing. Far be it from me proffering advice well after the fact (I’m assuming) – but less time gutting fish and 4 years of playing in a rock’n’roll band through high school might have made a hell of a positive difference in the girl friend(s) department.

  119. Melvis says:

    hunter1909: 430am is my limit.

    With respect, that’s not a park. It’s more like a small sized state.

    Don’t let me stop you!

    More fool me: Trying to talk big to the summer time crowd who as shown here eat my lunch.

    You should know the unwritten rules by now Hunter. You’re golden mid winter with the contest and all- and subject to sharp tongues mid summer. It’s the edginess that manifests itself between seasons. Like enforced celibacy.

  120. Melvis says:

    Ok. Crickets. It’s a long weekend in August and somewhat expected, but nary a word about food, booze, music or stories about other things? C’mon eh.

    There’s not much to be said for your local food store garden variety frozen pizza. I’ve tried them all, with the exception of Dr Oetchers. I figured – what can a northern Euro brand possibly offer in the way of pizza?

    At 3 bucks and change on special – it’s still a waste of money.

  121. Melvis says:

    I always wondered about the nutritional efficacy of feeding the boys in the room pizza between overtime periods in some final. As in “those pretzels are making me thirsty”. It seems to fly in the face of significant hydration being the key to prolonged, high intensity, physical activity.

    On another note, one more post about nothing and I’m bound to hang myself out to dry.

  122. northerndancer says:

    Melvis:
    I always wondered about the nutritional efficacy of feeding the boys in the room pizza between overtime periods in some final. As in “those pretzels are making me thirsty”.It seems to fly in the face of significant hydration being the key to prolonged, high intensity, physical activity.

    On another note, one more post about nothing and I’m bound to hang myself out to dry.

    ok melvis . I’ll bite – but not pizza. Just back from the day in the sun at the Kaslo Jazz etc Festival where some 18 year old kid led a group of regional jazz musicians in a 90 minute tribute to Thelonius Monk and then a bit later some uninspired music but inspired words from Buffy St Marie herself (why doesn’t anyone talk about actually making some sense at her age instead of Mick Jagger). Now quaffing the last drops of a pail of New England STyle IPA from the local brewpub the Angry Hen and wondering how I got hooked on a hockey blog with a cast of characters like yourself VOR, Ricki (the f’n bear), SSheps (who seems sane), Pinocchio (I mean WG) and the grand master himself LW.

    Am I worried about Bouchard? Not yet….

  123. Melvis says:

    northerndancer,

    Am I worried about Bouchard? Not yet….

    Nor am I. That can wait about another year. That thing at the bottom of the blog however, “Learn how your comment data is processed”.

    No one today should entertain any illusions about constant tracking.

    A first class VPN might help – the one with the servers located under a mountain in Switzerland no longer open to the rest of the world comes to mind.

    It’s where the data inevitably ends up that might be a concern. Like US border control. No more chat about Golf in the Kingdom under the influence of substances illegal at the Federal level in the US. I’ve actually been thinking about bowing out of here, period.

  124. Lowetide says:

    Melvis:
    Ok. Crickets. It’s a long weekend in August and somewhat expected, but nary a word about food, booze, music or stories about other things? C’mon eh.

    There’s not much to be said for your local food store garden variety frozen pizza. I’ve tried them all, with the exception of Dr Oetchers. I figured – what can a northern Euro brand possibly offer in the way of pizza?

    At 3 bucks and change on special – it’s still a waste of money.

    Papa Murphy’s is a pizza we purchase, bring home and enjoy. It isn’t $3 though.

  125. maudite says:

    This is the kind of game theory stuff that I think really is part of hockey’s “money ball”

    Bottom 6

    higher range pk skills
    close or better to saw off
    face off winning above 50%
    Positive PD

    Ladies and gentleman -> Anton Lander

    Add stuff like 7D is actually swing man who can play 4th line winger…maybe even be PP shot but not speed type player (so you actually have press box cheap 1yr older 8D on roster when required)

    Putting together an effective bottom 6 forwards without any overpriced shit (3rd line center is your highest dollar value)

    Not signing any “regret later” expensive long term deals (unless tapered as aggressively as possible to be likely cash value as low relative to cap hit so that the under ceiling teams might actually still value contract), no NMC, no NTC unless it’s prime stars type deals.

    Don’t overall value your own farts. Don’t over pay questionable players and max cap or roster prior to end of summer UFA bargain season/waiver pickups. (1.5 mill x 2 for cagguila is not a smart deal)

    Avoid drafting weak skating prospects (unless especially scouted and believed that one could actually improve it and the skill is worth the gamble late but NOT EVER EARLY)

    Identify peak trade values for your commodities. (Picks for players at draft, players for picks at deadline)

    etc etc etc

    Like write it all down on a board with an underline header “BEST LONG TERM INTEREST OF FRANCHISE”

    frjohnk:
    These were the guys with the worst PD on the Oilers

    Milan Lucic-19
    Zack Kassian-12
    Darnell Nurse-11
    Adam Larsson-10
    Ryan Strome-9
    Patrick Maroon-7
    Eric Gryba-7
    Matthew Benning-4
    Mike Cammalleri-4
    Mark Letestu-4

    These are the guys with a positive penalty differential
    Connor McDavid29
    Leon Draisaitl6
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins5
    Kris Russell5
    Anton Slepyshev5
    Pontus Aberg3
    Kailer Yamamoto3
    Ty Rattie2

    I believe PD is an underrated stat.I can understand Dmen have a – number, but forwards, especially bottom 6 forwards who have big – numbers really harm the team.Think of it this way.You have a player that is -20 in PD and the team has a 80% PK rate, that player on average helped contribute to 4 goals against.And if he is in the bottom 6 and does not score much, he really is not helping the team.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ooops, wrong thread.

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