Something Else

I’m a big believer in NHL equivalency, if not in the exact number the formula spits out for each player, then the spirit of what it tries to do. Rob Vollman publishes a new set of numbers each year and talks about it annually in his Hockey Abstracts (new one out soon!). For me, it seems there is in fact a line in the sand for offense among forwards. If a player can’t reach the highest outer marker, chances are his only NHL option is as a depth player. If a player can’t deliver at least some offense, we are looking at a wasted selection or signing. I do believe NHLE can guide us in this area, and that’s important.

THE ATHLETIC

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

NHLE FORWARDS, SUMMER 2015

NHL equivalencies are helpful and you need to know age as well. Although the Connor McDavid number is insane, and we knew he was going to be earth shattering before applying math, the fact that he did it in the best junior league in the world at 17 is mind boggling.

The Draisaitl number is outstanding, doubly so because in 2014-15 he was 18. That’s an outstanding total for a draft +1 player. The rest: Kyle Platzer 19 (led Owen Sound Attack in scoring), Anton Slepyshev 20, Tyler Pitlick 22, Iiro Pakarinen 23.  Andrew Miller was 25. Where is your ‘line in the sand’ for a future skill player? Is it 35 points? 30? A lot of the conversation surrounds the age of the player when he reaches those plateaus.

NHLE FORWARDS, SUMMER 2018

Kailer Yamamoto’s NHLE at 18 (36.2) was impressive, just a little shy of Leon Draisaitl at the same age. I’m not going to suggest KY has the same impact, the undersized winger plays the wing and doesn’t have the same skill set. That said, he’s an outstanding talent, whether he arrives this fall or next.

What to make of Cooper Marody? A 34.8 NHLE is a strong number, but he did it at 21. Andrew Cogliano was at 35.6 (age 19) with Michigan in 2006-07, Zach Hyman had a 39.4 NHLE for Michigan (Marody’s college) at age 22, that’s a handsome figure. I’m inclined to believe Marody is going to be able to deliver enough offense to be in the conversation for a skill line in the NHL when he arrives.

Kirill Maksimov is a fascinating character, should we count on him to be something else? Well, there’s a chance. He posted these numbers in the OHL too, that’s a quality league. Cliff Pu (36.1), Jason Robertson (33.9) are in the general range, Robertson was noted as a possible first rounder in Maksimov’s draft year. We need to see him do it again, but this is a nice neighbourhood. I’d say a re-draft puts him well inside the second round.

NHLE DEFENSE, SUMMER 2018

Evan Bouchard blocks out the sun, he is both very young and extremely talented. Paul Coffey’s NHLE in his final junior season (age 18) was 33.6 and he was Paul freaking Coffey. So there’s that. The defensive questions about him this week were in fact contained in his scouting reports, including Corey Pronman at The Athletic:

  • “He’ll need to continue improving defensively in his reads/battles to be solid defensively as a pro, but he’s shown progress there and took the tough matchups this season.”

We can’t know about Bouchard’s future as a defender beyond the fact there’s a learning curve and that’s an area he’ll need to improve in order to be the player his skills imply. NHLE tells us he is a substantial offensive prospect so there will be a temptation to give him a push this fall (I think he’ll land in Cologne and get 9 NHL games before heading out).

Evan Bouchard is a substantial prospect and there is much work to do. If he becomes another Ryan Ellis, music! We’re many miles from knowing his outer marker. We don’t know what we don’t know, but we can use common sense and the tools available to us to monitor progress. If you’re upset about Bouchard’s Kamloops performance, here’s some advice: Calm your tits, pack a lunch because the answer isn’t going to arrive this morning when your toast pops up. Ryan Ellis was drafted in 2009, became an NHL regular Boxing Day, 2011. Pace yourself, be good to each other, and know that if you’re ripping Bruce McCurdy you’re on the wrong side of history, current events and your Mom.

LAST YEAR’S NHLE (FORWARDS AND DEFENSE)

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172 Responses to "Something Else"

  1. oilersjo says:

    As a PA Raider fan I am very interested in how these young defensemen will react to Dave Manson. He has developed some fine prospects in the last few years. We could use a Manson type player and would be good to see him work with nurse also.

  2. dustrock says:

    What was the “twist” re the Bouchard freakout? Was a great lede on your twitter.

  3. Lowetide says:

    dustrock:
    What was the “twist” re the Bouchard freakout? Was a great lede on your twitter.

    I knew a freakout was coming, did not expect that the target of wrath would be Gentleman Bruce McCurdy. Honestly shocking.

  4. fishman says:

    oilersjo:
    As a PA Raider fan I am very interested in how these young defensemen will react to Dave Manson.He has developed some fine prospects in the last few years.We could use a Manson type playerand would be good to see him work with nurse also.

    I am hoping that one of the positive story lines from next couple of years will be the impact our new assistant coach’s have on the big club as well as new coaching staff in Bakersfield. We know our drafting has been abysmal but so has our development of those drafted. Fingers crossed!!!!

  5. dustrock says:

    Lowetide: I knew a freakout was coming, did not expect that the target of wrath would be Gentleman Bruce McCurdy. Honestly shocking.

    Twitter is getting so hard to tolerate these days. It’s a real shame.

    Bruce I for one value your insights regarding hockey. And astronomy.

  6. Bryan says:

    Edmonton fans have a long and not so honorable history of being overly harsh with skilled defencemen. Tom Poti, Jeff Petry, and Justin Schultz to name a few were ushered out of town only to become the player they were meant to be somewhere else. If Coffey hadn’t played on such a talented team he would have felt the slings and arrows much more too as he certainly had some defensive liabilities early on. A defenceman who is constantly handling the puck and attempting high skill plays will make mistakes sometimes. That is the nature of the beast. If you want it only high off the glass then that job is a little easier. I think Bouchard will be just fine as he is coming into a much better situation than some of the highly talented dmen that came before him. It would be great if people can exercise a little patience as he learns on the job though.

  7. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LT, no Ostap Safin in this year’s NHLEs?

  8. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    LT, no Ostap Safin in this year’s NHLEs?

    I posted only 25+ points, Vollman’s NHLE has Safin at 22.1.

  9. leadfarmer says:

    18 year old D don’t help you win (unless they are top talent and even then it’s questionable). No reason to give him 9 games. We can’t afford to sacrifice games for player development if we are trying to make playoffs

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan Ellis was drafted in 2009, became an NHL regular Boxing Day, 2011

    I’d add to that:

    Became a NHL Top 4 Regular in 2014.

    5 years from draft day until he could take on Top 4 assignment.

    I’ve looked at a lot of other Dmen and 5 years isn’t uncommon.

    Yes, some get there in 3 or so, but 4-5 is more common.

    Bouchard will probably be good, but it takes time.

    Nurse took 4 years before he wasn’t getting his head kicked in top 4, and even he still struggled at times last year.

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: I posted only 25+ points, Vollman’s NHLE has Safin at 22.1.

    Thank you

  12. jasontheschoolteacher says:

    First of all Bruce McCurdy and Lowetide are my favourite guys on twitter for many reasons so this is not about them, but for many of the Oilers fan base on Twitter we have gotten to the point where I believe many fans enjoy having the Oilers fail because it gives them greater satisfaction than them winning. The hate for Chia and wanting every move he makes to end up miserably so he can be fired at this point. All people want to say is, “I told you so.” The negativity on Twitter is out of hand. Peronal attacks on players and hoping they do bad is sick. If it makes you feel better to constantly be negative than….If you don’t think players don’t look at Twitter them you are wrong. I hope people are going to give Bouchard and all the young players a chance. Amazing how the hate for Chia has made Oilers Twitter nasty.

  13. Lowetide says:

    jasontheschoolteacher:
    First of all Bruce McCurdy and Lowetide are my favourite guys on twitter for many reasons so this is not about them, but for many of the Oilers fan base on Twitter we have gotten to the point where I believe many fans enjoy having the Oilers fail because it gives them greater satisfaction than them winning. The hate for Chia and wanting every move he makes to end up miserably so he can be fired at this point. All people want to say is, “I told you so.” The negativity on Twitter is out of hand. Peronal attacks on players and hoping they do bad is sick. If it makes you feel better to constantly be negative than….If you don’t think players don’t look at Twitter them you are wrong.I hope people are going to give Bouchard and all the youngplayers a chance. Amazing how the hate for Chia has made Oilers Twitter nasty.

    I can’t imagine anyone viewing Bruce’s tweet and thinking it was ripping on Bouchard. I talked about the same play on my blog the previous day. It was absolutely the kind of thing that anyone watching the game would react to, and Bruce did without being a jerk about it. If we abandon the truth, what do we have left?

  14. godot10 says:

    They shouldn’t even take Bouchard over to Europe. The OIlers cannot mess around in training camp and at the start of the season like they did last year, particularly with the opening 10 games of the season being beastly.

    Giving Bouchard nine games likely will be a bigger blunder than giving Yamamoto nine games last year.

  15. Bismarck says:

    Lowetide:
    Fantastic interview from Russia re: Yohann Auvitu
    https://www.sport-express.ru/hockey/khl/reviews/nhl-eto-biznes-i-licemerie-pochemu-opytnyy-francuz-perebralsya-v-khl-1442373/

    In English, please. You know I don’t speak Spanish!

  16. jasontheschoolteacher says:

    No problem at all with Bruce’s posting, but the negativity in general on Oilers Twitter is over and above. Agree because if you are taking hits at Bruce then this tells us where we are on Oilers Twitter. The negativity in all directions is wrong especially when you attack soneone personally, players included.

  17. Psyche says:

    It always brings a smile to my face when I read “Calm your tits” over my morning coffee. Thank you LT.

    The Kamloops event isn’t indicative of much regarding the future development of these young players. In fact, I’d argue these young players would benefit more by being off the ice during their off-season training phase.

    Hockey Canada trying to make more money. That’s the core of the event.

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jasontheschoolteacher:
    First of all Bruce McCurdy and Lowetide are my favourite guys on twitter for many reasons so this is not about them, but for many of the Oilers fan base on Twitter we have gotten to the point where I believe many fans enjoy having the Oilers fail because it gives them greater satisfaction than them winning. The hate for Chia and wanting every move he makes to end up miserably so he can be fired at this point. All people want to say is, “I told you so.” The negativity on Twitter is out of hand. Peronal attacks on players and hoping they do bad is sick. If it makes you feel better to constantly be negative than….If you don’t think players don’t look at Twitter them you are wrong.I hope people are going to give Bouchard and all the youngplayers a chance. Amazing how the hate for Chia has made Oilers Twitter nasty.

    If those fans and they way they talk about the team on twitter bother you that much, why do you read what they write?

    There is a large segment of Oiler’s Fan twitter that wants to police how people should think and talk about the Oilers.

    I mute them and it makes my twitter experience much better.

    You should try liberally using the mute button on the people who bother you instead of worrying about what they say.

  19. jasontheschoolteacher says:

    I guess I just wanted to say the negativity on Oilers Twitter seems excessive. No disrespect was meant to anyone. I will not share an opinion. Have a great long weekend everyone…cheers!!!

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maksimov’s NHLE is fantastic for his draft plus 1 year.

    Given age, I take the number for guys like Vessel, Hebig, Rattie with a large grain of salt.

    Marody too but he’s not that old and he’s more than a pure offensive player.

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    I also have to take Persson’s with a grain of salt due to age. That player himself is the biggest enigma out of all of them to me – he came out of nowhere last year with a remarkable offensive season but I have no idea if it was a one-off and how he will perform with a full year in the highest Swedish league.

    At least we have his RFA rights – hopefully he earns at least a QO next spring.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oh, and I’m always a big disappointed to see Samorukov’s light NHLE but then I remember that he was block in offensive situations, including the PP, being behind both Merkley and McFadden.

    With McFadden turning pro, he should get more offensive opportunity this year and I”m hoping for a solid spike in his offensive numbers.

  23. Georgexs says:

    How does Bouchard get 9 games? Who in the top 6 sits? Is he getting 9 games because one of the 6 is injured?

  24. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If Bouchard has a camp where it’s obvious he’s going back they may not take him. If he’s pushing they will.

    Bouchard is the second key drafted piece after Connor now IMO, he’s jumped Leon. They will invest in him as they see he needs it and I would too. I’m sure they are also going to fast play him given the need, as always

  25. JimmyV1965 says:

    Yamamoto on the big club is not the reason the Oil failed to make the playoffs last year. And having Bouchard on the team for nine games this year will have no impact on the playoffs either.

  26. Psyche says:

    Google Translate provided me with this nice excerpt from the interview Auvitu did that LT shared earlier:

    “But still I can not help but note that in “Edmonton” I was more enjoyable to play than in “New Jersey”. For one simple reason: in Canada, hockey is always on the first place. In the United States it is far from the case. Especially in New York. We did not even enter into the top five teams. Then you and NFL, and basketball, and baseball, and in each kind of a pair of teams. “Devils” somewhere in the backyard of interest. And I like to feel that you are doing something significant. In Canada, in Finland, in Russia hockey is a big deal. And it’s great.”

    https://www.sport-express.ru/hockey/khl/reviews/nhl-eto-biznes-i-licemerie-pochemu-opytnyy-francuz-perebralsya-v-khl-1442373/

    Always nice to hear something positive about playing in Edmonton.

  27. Woodguy v2.0 says:
  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    The response to McCurdy posting a video of Bouchard getting walked was ridiculous.

    Oilers’ Twitter is not a fun place to be quite often and that gives me sadness as talking Oilers is something I very much enjoy doing.

    There is a certain active group on Oilers Social Media that equates any criticism of an Oiler player or praise of a non-Oiler player (over an Oiler player) as being a bad fan – its wildly off-base but this group is very active and its tough to read.

    Go Oilers!

  29. Psyche says:

    One more excerpt to share from the interview that I thought folks here would appreciate reading:

    “- You played with Taylor Hall in “New Jersey”. And then moved to “Edmonton”, where he was accused of the fact that he was “blown away” in difficult matches. Disappears from the ice. This, in particular, said Oscar Klefbom.
    – Well I do not know. I played with Taylor for four months. And for me – he always played at his highest level. Yes, when I moved to the Oilers, I heard very little of good about the Hall. But I could not understand why. Because in the “New Jersey” he left an exceptionally positive impression. Friendly, pleasant in communication, a real leader, a great player. And what I was told about Taylor in Edmonton was completely different from what I saw in the Devils. Well, about the “blown away” – he took “Hart Trophy” this year. He pulled his team into the playoffs. When he was exchanged, he seemed to be 24 years old. Quite young. Able to grow as a player. Perhaps he has matured. You know, I would gladly take him to my team. We would not interfere with Hall in Sochi.”

    https://www.sport-express.ru/hockey/khl/reviews/nhl-eto-biznes-i-licemerie-pochemu-opytnyy-francuz-perebralsya-v-khl-1442373/

    Translation courtesy of Google Translate.

  30. blainer says:

    I watched the game and the errant pass made by Bouchard. He needs work big time on the D side of the puck. This can be coached out of him for sure but agree that the NHL is not the place to do that.

    Now I also saw Bouchard make some very nice plays. Keeping the play in the O zone by stepping up at the blue line to keep the puck in the zone.. Something the OIl did not do much of at all last season IMO. So i really liked that play. He made a few other nice plays that I liked as well.

    I will say though LT that Hunter seemed to really like Ty Smith a lot. Don’t know what the ice time was but it seemed to me Smith was out there a lot.

    Very disappointed to see Hunter not use Bouchard on the first unit PP. Especially with that shot. He went with Smith a lot on the first unit and he stayed out for most of all the PP’s.

    Overall I really hope they send him back to Junior as I really don’t think he is ready. I do trust the team to make the correct decision as they did with Nurse. I just can’t see him coming into camp much better than what I saw in that one game but will admit things can change.

    I still think Dobson was the better pick as he seems to be a more well rounded D. I did see some Jultzing also going on with Bouchard and he will need to get that out of his game if he wishes to make it. He is very young and they have to get his development correct.

    Eearly days but I do think we will eventually get a great D with this player

  31. who says:

    Georgexs:
    How does Bouchard get 9 games? Who in the top 6 sits? Is he getting 9 games because one of the 6 is injured?

    This is my question as well.
    Does anyone really think he is going to be better, THIS YEAR, than anyone in the current top 6?
    So, unless someone is injured, why would they have him sitting in the press box?
    People are suggesting Russell or Sekera sitting while a 19 year old plays?
    Makes no sense to me. It woild require a massive decline from one of the veterans and a very strong camp from Bouchard.
    I suppose it’s possible but a lot of posters here seem to think it’s a certainty.

  32. Lowetide says:

    who: This is my question as well.
    Does anyone really think he is going to be better, THIS YEAR, than anyone in the current top 6?
    So, unless someone is injured, why would they have him sitting in the press box?
    People are suggesting Russell or Sekera sitting while a 19 year old plays?
    Makes no sense to me. It woild require a massive decline from one of the veterans and a very strong camp from Bouchard.
    I suppose it’s possible but a lot of posters here seem to think it’s a certainty.

    If Bouchard emerges as a strong option for the power play, we may see Edmonton carry 8 defensemen at the start of the season. It isn’t a massive stretch to suggest he might sit the Europe game and then play one of the early games back in NA (maybe NYR) while giving Sekera a rest. There may be an injury by then as well. One thing I never worry about is an organization being unable to get the No. 7D into the lineup. Shyte happens.

  33. €√¥£€^$ says:

    godot10:
    They shouldn’t even take Bouchard over to Europe.The OIlers cannot mess around in training camp and at the start of the season like they did last year, particularly with the opening 10 games of the season being beastly.

    Giving Bouchard nine games likely will be a bigger blunder than giving Yamamoto nine games last year.

    I don’t generally agree with you, but I think this is quite likely, but ultimately his results will determine the outcome during TC.

    If he is unable to defend vs NHL players on the roster, it will be pretty clear well before the games that count are played. In the end this is a good thing, he will have a much better understanding of what he will need to get better at and he will be getting feedback from an experienced NHL coach who has played D in the league and he will also have access to feedback from veteran NHL Dmen.

    I also think Bear’s audition was far too long lst season, as he was clearly too far in over his head on a roster with not much cover. I think we will see a better defender in Bear this season. Yet Bear will still be quite far away from NHL-ready this season. I am hoping Bouchard gets his 9 games in next season, because if he does, that means he has put the work in and that will mean very good things for the organization.

    And given TMac & Chia’s somewhat tenuous position and TMac’s general risk-“averseness” (see OV2) there is no chance he plays in the NHL in the upsoming season. It is more likely we see a vet dman who makes camp on a PTO (Bieksa rumors, or Franson or Sproul).

    While looking for comparables I found this interesting article about top-scoring dmen and age:

    https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/cage-match/age-and-fantasy-success-part-1-defensemen/

  34. Stud Muffin says:

    LT wasn’t Draisaitl’s time with Kelowna all as a 19 year old? Same as Yamamoto’s. Which would make Kailers’s 39.6 superior to Leon’s 39.4.

  35. SteveZ says:

    Lowetide,

    Trumperica. That’s what we have left.

  36. dustrock says:

    blainer:
    I watched the game and the errant pass made by Bouchard. He needs work big time on the D side of the puck. This can be coached out of him for sure but agree that the NHL is not the place to do that.

    Now I also saw Bouchard make some very nice plays. Keeping the play in the O zone by stepping up at the blue line to keep the puck in the zone.. Something the OIl did not do much of at all last season IMO. So i really liked that play. He made a few other nice plays that I liked as well.

    I will say though LT that Hunter seemed to really like Ty Smith a lot. Don’t know what the ice time was but it seemed to me Smith was out there a lot.

    Very disappointed to see Hunter not use Bouchard on the first unit PP. Especially with that shot. He went with Smith a lot on the first unit and he stayed out for most of all the PP’s.

    Overall I really hope they send him back to Junior as I really don’t think he is ready. I do trust the team to make the correct decision as they did with Nurse. I just can’t see him coming into camp much better than what I saw in that one game but will admit things can change.

    I still think Dobson was the better pick as he seems to be a more well rounded D. I did see some Jultzing also going on with Bouchard and he will need to get that out of his game if he wishes to make it. He is very young and they have to get his development correct.

    Eearly days but I do think we will eventually get a great D with this player

    Hey Blaine, ironically after all the sturm und drang about Bouchard Hunter actually singled him out for praise.

    He didn’t play the last game because Hunter wanted to focus on guys who weren’t “sure things”.

    It’s also quite possible he wasn’t used on PP1 because Hunter wanted to get a read on guys like Smith.

  37. Lowetide says:

    Stud Muffin:
    LT wasn’t Draisaitl’s time with Kelowna all as a 19 year old? Same as Yamamoto’s. Which would make Kailers’s 39.6 superior to Leon’s 39.4.

    I use hockeydb, they tell me Leon was 18 in Kelowna
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0009962015.html

  38. €√¥£€^$ says:

    I also wonder if Bouchard has had much time to relax this zeason and really get away from the rink. It seems to me he’s been on the ice a ton this offseason. And this is a guy who is on the ice too long, generally in London and it seems to me that he has picked up a few bad habits to conserve energy. I noticed he had pretty long shifts (or so it seems) in Kamloops.

    Hopefully he has people helping him in this area.

  39. Stud Muffin says:

    Lowetide: I use hockeydb, they tell me Leon was 18 in Kelowna
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0009962015.html

    Leon’s Birthday is Oct 27 so he would have been 19.

  40. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide: If Bouchard emerges as a strong option for the power play, we may see Edmonton carry 8 defensemen at the start of the season. It isn’t a massive stretch to suggest he might sit the Europe game and then play one of the early games back in NA (maybe NYR) while giving Sekera a rest. There may be an injury by then as well. One thing I never worry about is an organization being unable to get the No. 7D into the lineup. Shyte happens.

    Hi LT, I find as the season goes along in the NHL, somewhere after the 20-30 game mark the games get tougher till the end of the season. I think rookies and especially D-men will find less room to work and become more exposed. I’m mixed what to do with Evan, especially starting in Europe. Still leaning on him going back to junior and then represent Canada at the worlds. Just not sure when.

  41. Lowetide says:

    Stud Muffin: Leon’s Birthday is Oct 27 so he would have been 19.

    He would have been 19 during the season, yes. However, he would have been 18 at the start of the season, that’s the line in the sand I’ve always used.

  42. pts2pndr says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Yamamoto on the big club is not the reason the Oil failed to make the playoffs last year. And having Bouchard on the team for nine games this year will have no impact on the playoffs either.

    Not the reason but symtomatic of a player deployment issue that continued to plague the team!

  43. Stud Muffin says:

    Lowetide: He would have been 19 during the season, yes. However, he would have been 18 at the start of the season, that’s the line in the sand I’ve always used.

    Kind of a double standard though is it not? to say Kailer who is born on September 29th is a year older than Leon even though each game they played in the WHL in there Draft+1s were as 19 year olds. To me it makes more sense to compare A season that is under one month apart than it is to compare ones that’s are just over 11 months apart.

  44. Georgexs says:

    Inspired by LT’s post from earlier in the week, I took a look at draft data from 2000 (the year the League expanded to 30 teams) to 2013. I focused on games played by all players in the 5 years after they were drafted. This was one thing that LT said he looked at to evaluate draft success. He suggested 400 games as a threshold for a good draft, 1000 games for among the best, and 0 games for complete failure.

    Here are some notes:

    – there were 420 draft records in the 2000 to 2013 dataset

    – just 87 or 21% produced 400 or more games in the 5 post-draft years

    – the best performance was NYI in 2008 (965 games); notables included Bailey, Hamonic, Matt Martin, and Spurgeon

    – Colorado in 2009 (Duchene, O’Reilly, Barrie) and Chicago in 2011 (Saad, Shaw) were next with 846 games and 808 games respectively

    – 8 drafts produced goose eggs (VCR did it twice)

    – 97 drafts or 23% produced fewer than 100 games; it’s very common for teams to not get much

    – the median was 240.5 games played; and the average was 259

    – EDM beat the 400 game mark 3 times (2007, 2010, and 2011)

    – EDM was above the median in 11 out of 14 drafts; we had one 0 in 2000

    – FLA has the best draft record by the 400 game benchmark; they’ve beaten it 8 out of 14 seasons

    – at the other end of the scale, NJD, VCR, and DET didn’t meet the 400 game threshold once; VCR and DET have the fewest games played over those 14 drafts

    – 1st round picks account for 52% of the total games played in the whole dataset

  45. Georgexs says:

    Some notes on skater demographics. I’m looking at first round picks and their share of the workforce and time on ice. I’m excluding goalies.

    Season, % of players, % of time on ice

    00-01, 25, 33
    05-06, 31, 38
    13-14, 32, 41
    17-18, 34, 44

    Here’s the breakdown for forwards

    00-01, 24, 33
    05-06, 32, 40
    13-14, 32, 44
    17-18, 36, 47

    And here’s the breakdown for defensemen

    00-01, 28, 32
    05-06, 28, 34
    13-14, 31, 36
    17-18, 28, 39

    Thoughts?

  46. Lowetide says:

    Stud Muffin: Kind of a double standard though is it not? to say Kailer who is born on September 29th is a year older than Leon even though each game they played in the WHL in there Draft+1s were as 19 year olds. To me it makes more sense to compare A season that is under one month apart than it is to compare ones that’s are just over 11 months apart.

    Absolutely, and the most unfair comparison possible. In the case of Yamamoto, he was excellent in both seasons, so beyond the curio I don’t know that it changes the equation.

  47. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Speaking of twitter, this is a great article on they psychology of it and how its “regressing” people:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/04/opinion/sunday/the-high-school-we-cant-log-off-from.html

  48. jp says:

    who: This is my question as well.
    Does anyone really think he is going to be better, THIS YEAR, than anyone in the current top 6?
    So, unless someone is injured, why would they have him sitting in the press box?
    People are suggesting Russell or Sekera sitting while a 19 year old plays?
    Makes no sense to me. It woild require a massive decline from one of the veterans and a very strong camp from Bouchard.
    I suppose it’s possible but a lot of posters here seem to think it’s a certainty.

    I think it’s also about getting the players experience. The 9 games and the month spent with the big club gives a better sense what they need to work on to become full time NHLers. Right or wrong I think the 9 games thing is as much about fast tracking these top prospects development as it is about helping the team win in the short term.

  49. Oil2Oilers says:

    I hope the Oilers give Puljujarvi a long run with Mcdavid and Nuge to start the season.

    He has a better tool box than Rattie and more pro experience than Yamamoto.

    Getting the big Fin producing from one of, if the not the greatest, cat bird seat in the NHL today could unlock his potential.

  50. defmn says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Speaking of twitter, this is a great article on they psychology of it and how its “regressing” people:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/04/opinion/sunday/the-high-school-we-cant-log-off-from.html

    I’m not sure twitter is shaping people so much as allowing them to reveal themselves. 😉

  51. defmn says:

    jp: I think it’s also about getting the players experience. The 9 games and the month spent with the big club gives a better sense what they need to work on to become full time NHLers. Right or wrong I think the 9 games thing is as much about fast tracking these top prospects development as it is about helping the team win in the short term.

    I see it the same way. It is up to the HC to keep the player out of situations he can’t handle while showing him what he has to get better at.

  52. Wilde says:

    Georgexs,

    nice work here

    Georgexs: the best performance was NYI in 2008 (965 games); notables included Bailey, Hamonic, Matt Martin, and Spurgeon

    Georgexs: Colorado in 2009 (Duchene, O’Reilly, Barrie)

    These look like the best competitors for Montreal’s McDonagh, Pacioretty & Subban draft.

    Notice how many of these feature players traded away? It’s almost like teams set a limit for how much they can get out of one draft – You see this verbal around draft day pretty often, things are said like ‘now that Team X is drafting Y, they can look to trade Z. Where Z is an excellent player 100 games or less into a stellar career. Pre-emptive roster rebalancing is an absolute scourge.

    Georgexs: 1st round picks account for 52% of the total games played in the whole dataset

    I think this is the best jumping-off point for investigating the bias in developmental resources & benefit of the doubt & given to drafted/highly drafted players over others. Something like the difference between WAR/82 of first round picks vs non first round picks in their first 400 NHL GP

  53. Munny says:

    Lowetide: If we abandon the truth, what do we have left?

    In Education, Politics, Economics, even Law and the Sciences, and of course, in the hot button issues of our day Justice is now more important than Truth. And this truth is truest on Twitter.

  54. Biggus Dickus says:

    I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Bin players and then calculate NHLe, and you will quickly see which clusters are likely to be nhl players. right now we are inflating lower end players, and making the cut off point blurry. Kytnar wouldn’t score 22 points in any reality. Leave this to one of you nerds who has the time though.

  55. Munny says:

    Georgexs,

    Wow, this is great context. Thanks, Georges!

  56. jtblack says:

    leadfarmer,

    “18 year old D don’t help you win (unless they are top talent and even then it’s questionable)”

    Name an 18 yr old D who has had made their team and had a positive Impact?

  57. Georgexs says:

    Lowetide: If Bouchard emerges as a strong option for the power play, we may see Edmonton carry 8 defensemen at the start of the season. It isn’t a massive stretch to suggest he might sit the Europe game and then play one of the early games back in NA (maybe NYR) while giving Sekera a rest. There may be an injury by then as well. One thing I never worry about is an organization being unable to get the No. 7D into the lineup. Shyte happens.

    It’s very unusual to see the 9 game trial for defensemen in their draft + 1.

    Looking at the 2000 to 2016 drafts:

    – 140 defensemen picked in the first round played NHL games

    – just 22 played in their draft + 1; most of them played more than half the season (high picks like Bouwmeester, Doughty, Ekblad, Hanifin, Jones, Hedman, Schenn, Larsson, Bogosian…)

    – only 6 played fewer than 9 games: Klesla, Pietrangelo, Zadorov, Krajicek, Sergachev, and Jared Cowen

    – of 48 top 10 defensemen picks, only 4 played 9 or fewer games in their draft + 1: Klesla (8 GP), Pietrangelo (8 GP), Sergachev (4 GP), Cowen (1 GP)

    I’d have to check, but did any of those 4 make their team out of training camp? It seems if defensemen make the team in their draft + 1, they basically make the team, i.e., they play a whole lot of games.

    Teams don’t do this 9 game thing with defensemen. The Oilers doing it with Bouchard would be an unwelcome innovation given the scrutiny the player is already under in August. The move smacks of smartest guy in the room.

    I’m curious about the Yamamoto experiment now; I wonder if the Oilers went out on a limb there as well. I’ll check.

  58. Wilde says:

    I’ll suggest Kailer Yamamoto is a similar prospect to Draisaitl and I don’t care who knows it.

    Using Emmanuel Perry’s draft app again:

    ( 29 / / 56 )

    Age – 18.90 / / 18.98

    Adjusted pts/gp – 0.24 / / 0.23

    Projected WAR/82 – 0.62 / / 0.63

    NHL D+1:

    Draisaitl – 0.24 P/GP (5.05 on-ice shooting %)

    Yamamoto – 0.33 P/GP (2.63 on-ice shooting %)

  59. Munny says:

    Georgexs: at the other end of the scale, NJD, VCR, and DET didn’t meet the 400 game threshold once; VCR and DET have the fewest games played over those 14 drafts

    This is what I found confusing about LT’s benchmark. If you slow cook your prospects in the minors because you have a stellar lineup, the benchmark is nearly impossible to hit.

    So we have people advocating incubation but then using a standard that conflicts with this philosophy.

    I think we need a further check on players that hit 400 games, but didn’t make it in the first 5 years… so we can establish which teams are drafting busts and which teams are incubating.

  60. Lowetide says:

    Georgexs:

    I’m curious about the Yamamoto experiment now; I wonder if the Oilers went out on a limb there as well. I’ll check.

    I argued the Oilers should have sent Yamamoto down after one or two preseason games. It’s in their DNA.

  61. Lowetide says:

    Wilde:
    I’ll suggest Kailer Yamamoto is a similar prospect to Draisaitl and I don’t care who knows it.

    Using Emmanuel Perry’s draft app again:

    ( 29 / / 56 )

    Age – 18.90 / / 18.98

    Adjusted pts/gp – 0.24 / / 0.23

    Projected WAR/82 – 0.62 / / 0.63

    NHL D+1:

    Draisaitl – 0.24 P/GP (5.05 on-ice shooting %)

    Yamamoto – 0.33 P/GP (2.63 on-ice shooting %)

    I think Yamamoto is a more one dimensional player, or at least his overall skills suggest it. Offensively, I agree. He’s the real thing.

  62. Lowetide says:

    Biggus Dickus:
    I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Bin players and then calculate NHLe, and you will quickly see which clusters are likely to be nhl players. right now we are inflating lower end players, and making the cut off point blurry. Kytnar wouldn’t score 22 points in any reality. Leave this to one of you nerds who has the time though.

    They’re all skill guys in junior. NHLE separates Yamamoto’s from Benson, that is the function.

  63. Lowetide says:

    Munny: This is what I found confusing about LT’s benchmark.If you slow cook your prospects in the minors because you have a stellar lineup, the benchmark is nearly impossible to hit.

    So we have people advocating incubation but then using a standard that conflicts with this philosophy.

    I think we need a further check on players that hit 400 games, but didn’t make it in the first 5 years… so we can establish which teams are drafting busts and which teams are incubating.

    If your guy isn’t showing much after draft +5, chances are he won’t find his way or he’ll find his way in another organization.

  64. Munny says:

    Stud Muffin: Kind of a double standard though is it not? to say Kailer who is born on September 29th is a year older than Leon even though each game they played in the WHL in there Draft+1s were as 19 year olds. To me it makes more sense to compare A season that is under one month apart than it is to compare ones that’s are just over 11 months apart.

    This is a good point and a good catch. The article above is a bit deceptive in this regard.

    “Superior” is a tough ranking to apply though. “Similar” would be better. The numbers are way too tight. They don’t take into account either QUALTEAM or QUALCOMP, and the possible futures are a bell curve of outcomes. NHLE is not a precision instrument.

  65. Munny says:

    Lowetide,

    Agreed. But not having 400 games isn’t “not showing much”. 400 games is a great start to a draft group. As Georges shows, the average is 260 for a team at 5 years.

    What does the Detroit number show over that span? Poorer drafting, or slow-playing? I’m not sure and I think it is important to know. VCR I feel a little more certain about lol.

    Edit: Maybe games lost to injury should be included to. Although that’s a bit of a speculative number. How do we know a player who makes the team out of camp for the first time and gets a 3 month injury would have held onto the job?

  66. pts2pndr says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    If Bouchard has a camp where it’s obvious he’s going back they may not take him. If he’s pushing they will.

    Bouchard is the second key draftedpiece after Connor now IMO, he’s jumped Leon. They will invest in him as they see he needs it and I would too. I’m sure they are also going to fast play him given the need, as always

    Predicated on the continued progress of Benning and Bear not to mention Bergland coming over next year the need to fast play Bouchard may not be required! One can only hope but there is room for optomism!

  67. Wilde says:

    Lowetide: I think Yamamoto is a more one dimensional player, or at least his overall skills suggest it. Offensively, I agree. He’s the real thing.

    I guess the conversation therein would have to start with definitions of offense and defense.

    I would argue this:

    – Kailer Yamamoto is more likely than your average winger to facilitate a turnover

    – Leon Draisaitl is more likely than your average centre to facilitate a turnover

    And that the distance between them and average at their position is probably in the same neighbourhood.

    The key difference in them is that Leon likely to play keep-away where as Yamamoto will instantly move the puck when he sees it, which to me is more a playstyle thing, although obviously Yamamoto couldn’t do what Leon does even if he tried.

  68. Richard S.S. says:

    Twit – as defined in detail by Dictionary,com App makes understanding twitter so much easier. Still too many reasons to avoid it like an angry skunk. It’s unfortunate that Sports News people are required to be on Twitter. Too easy to become a target.

  69. Georgexs says:

    Lowetide: I argued the Oilers should have sent Yamamoto down after one or two preseason games. It’s in their DNA.

    This time I looked at first round forward picks outside of the top 10 from 2000 to 2016. I’m focusing on the information available to Oilers brass and analytics staff at the time the Yamamoto decision was made.

    – 178 forwards that fit the criteria had played NHL games at that point

    – just 13 played in their draft + 1

    – of this group, the majority played over 9 games (notables in this group include Justin Williams, Perron, Pastrnak, Brown, Kesler)

    – there were only 5 who played fewer than 9 games: Scott Laughton (5), Forsberg (5), Baertschi (5), Boychuk (2), Fiala (1)

    – again, I don’t think any of these guys made the club out of TC; I could be wrong

    There’s something fundamentally wrong about breaking TC with a lower first round draft + 1 forward you intend to keep in the lineup for just 9 games. Teams don’t do it. The Oilers apparently decided to go against the grain last season. It seems the Rangers did as well with someone named Filip Chytil (the 21st pick in the 2017 draft).

  70. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack,

    That’s pretty much what I’m saying. There isn’t one. I’m sure someone is going to dig up a fancy stat that shows some player had a positive effect on some stat if you squint hard enough but so I just left that top prospect line in there for the #1 and 2 Overall picks. Defense is just so damn hard that these kids need time to learn

  71. Munny says:

    Munny: Agreed. But not having 400 games isn’t “not showing much”. 400 games is a great start to a draft group. As Georges shows, the average is 260 at 5 years.

    I’d be curious to know what 1 and 2 Sigma are with this data, if you have it, Georges.

  72. Georgexs says:

    jtblack:
    leadfarmer,

    “18 year old D don’t help you win (unless they are top talent and even then it’s questionable)”

    Name an 18 yr old D who has had made their team and had a positive Impact?

    Ekblad, Chychrun, Bogosian, Hanifin?

    They played a lot of games. Depends how you’d like to define positive impact.

    I agree with the main point: Very unusual to see.

  73. pts2pndr says:

    Stud Muffin: Kind of a double standard though is it not? to say Kailer who is born on September 29th is a year older than Leon even though each game they played in the WHL in there Draft+1s were as 19 year olds. To me it makes more sense to compare A season that is under one month apart than it is to compare ones that’s are just over 11 months apart.

    There is no perfect way! Leon was playing on a new team with new coaches etc while Yamamoto was returning to the familiar.

  74. Lowetide says:

    Wilde: I guess the conversation therein would have to start with definitions of offense and defense.

    I would argue this:

    – Kailer Yamamoto is more likely than your average winger to facilitate a turnover

    – Leon Draisaitl is more likely than your average centre to facilitate a turnover

    And that the distance between them and average at their position is probably in the same neighbourhood.

    The key difference in them is that Leon likely to play keep-away where as Yamamoto will instantly move the puck when he sees it, which to me is more a playstyle thing, although obviously Yamamoto couldn’t do what Leon does even if he tried.

    I think Leon is more likely to impact the play in the defensive zone if he develops as we hope. I don’t think Yamamoto will be that player, partly/mostly because of position but also (as you say) some of the work Leon can do based on brute strength. I admit to having dreams of Beliveau (this is my Dad’s fault) dancing in my head re: Leon.

  75. Lowetide says:

    Munny:
    Lowetide,

    What does the Detroit number show over that span?

    Luck, mostly. That’s my opinion on it.

  76. Revolved says:

    Georgexs,

    This is all great work GX! That the oilers outperformed the league so much over that span likely has a lot to do with being so horrible. I take the increased ice time of first rounders to come down to the rise of analytics. I think it has allowed a lot of teams to avoid costly biases for size, mullets, etc.

  77. who says:

    Wilde:
    I’ll suggest Kailer Yamamoto is a similar prospect to Draisaitl and I don’t care who knows it.

    Using Emmanuel Perry’s draft app again:

    ( 29 / / 56 )

    Age – 18.90 / / 18.98

    Adjusted pts/gp – 0.24 / / 0.23

    Projected WAR/82 – 0.62 / / 0.63

    NHL D+1:

    Draisaitl – 0.24 P/GP (5.05 on-ice shooting %)

    Yamamoto – 0.33 P/GP (2.63 on-ice shooting %)

    And I’ll suggest you are wrong.
    I noticed Drai was already standing out as a 17 year old in the WJCs for Germany. Yamamoto really didnt do much as a 19 yr old.
    I know the numbers look the same but major junior hockey history is littered with small players putting up big numbers who couldnt produce at the NHL level.
    I know that this is changing but it doesnt make Yamamoto a sure thing. People need to temper their expectations on this player a little.
    I need to see more than I did last year before I annoint him our 1RW.

  78. Richard S.S. says:

    At some time you need to see where your Players are when playing against the best, when playing against men. The majority of Draft Picks/Prospect get sent back to Junior for their 3rd year for more seasoning or because there is nowhere else to go. Because of his late birthday Evan Bouchard has already played his 3rd year of Junior on a Team that needed him more for his offence than anything else, playing against boys. He will get his “nine”, but sending him back to play against boys seems counter-productive when he needs to learn how to play against men. I think there is a better chance he stays, just for that reason.

  79. digger50 says:

    Wasn’t Drake Caggiula at 42 NHLE?

    Also, I had higher hopes for Joe Gambardella due to his high NHLE

  80. SwedishPoster says:

    I would understand outrage against Bruce if he mistook astronomy and astrology. But over posting a video of Bouchard getting walked(by a pretty limited player at that), that’s silly.

  81. rickithebear says:

    oilersjo:
    As a PA Raider fan I am very interested in how these young defensemen will react to Dave Manson.He has developed some fine prospects in the last few years.We could use a Manson type playerand would be good to see him work with nurse also.

    Grew up in. Prince Albert.
    Dad ran aerospace division of Envirioment Canada out of PA satellite station.
    14-20 employees making 1/2 billion with satellite and launch support for space agency around the world.

    Watched Raiders from 72-73 till I left PA.
    Thier was a group of Raiders Dmen that solidified my belief in HD Perimeter shot variance.
    B. McCrimmon
    R. Bartel
    J. Patrick
    Manson
    R. Pilot
    D. Kolstad 6’6” good skating def dman.

    Manson matches current system hire.
    Woodcraft – Manson covers the skaters.

    Trent Yawney a clear HD d whisperer.
    Will be coaching
    Klefbom
    Nurse
    Bouchard.

    Gravel has to be a Yawney call.

  82. digger50 says:

    I’m also down for Bouchard to be on the team for 10 NHL games, playing 6-7.

    The concern for me in regards to Bouchard is intensity and pace. There have been many superstars in lesser leagues that have been developed poorly and could not make the jump. They were played too much. Things got easy. They didn’t have to work as hard for results. They started to pace themselves, conserving energy for offensive opportunities.

    That’s great success for the OHL and if Evan can be as calm in the NHL that would be the goal. However in order to get there I think he will have to get back to quicker shifts, higher intensity.

    The risk of sending him back to OHL is it just may be too easy. The benefit of a few NHL games is it will allow him an understanding of where he needs to get to. I don’t know him, these comments are from far away, but seems that he needs more than OHL and less than NHL. Sweden produces excellent D men.

  83. rickithebear says:

    SwedishPoster:
    I would understand outrage against Bruce if he mistook astronomy and astrology. But over posting a video of Bouchard getting walked(by a pretty limited player at that), that’s silly.

    One of my older Theory: False EYe affect.
    Fans let single events form an opinion of a players ability.
    Rather than high level repeatable baseline system play.
    Elite GM’s are looking at baseline repeatability of players relative to critical score mechanism.

    WHL scouts for 3 diffrent orgs.
    Stated they have had non drafted skaters signed cause of high non mistake shift repeatable (6+ shifts in a row) system play. With a high % of non mistake shifts thru the whole game.

  84. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Ryan Ellis was drafted in 2009, became an NHL regular Boxing Day, 2011

    I’d add to that:

    Became a NHL Top 4 Regular in 2014.

    5 years from draft day until he could take on Top 4 assignment.

    I’ve looked at a lot of other Dmen and 5 years isn’t uncommon.

    Yes, some get there in 3 or so, but 4-5 is more common.

    Bouchard will probably be good, but it takes time.

    Nurse took 4 years before he wasn’t getting his head kicked in top 4, and even he still struggled at times last year.

    Nashville announcer stated Ellis did not Know def was part of dmans job.
    But learned it surrounded by strong group of Def dmen and Coaches.

    Yawney sweet Yawney.

  85. rickithebear says:

    Remember Emanuel Perry is a creator of app databases based off others theories.
    The critical theory for NHLE is Desjardins age factor.

    Unless it is a peer based league, thier is limited ability to translate.
    Playing men.

  86. Georgexs says:

    Wilde:
    Georgexs,

    nice work here

    These look like the best competitors for Montreal’s McDonagh, Pacioretty & Subban draft.

    Notice how many of these feature players traded away? It’s almost like teams set a limit for how much they can get out of one draft – You see this verbal around draft day pretty often, things are said like ‘now that Team X is drafting Y, they can look to trade Z. Where Z is an excellent player 100 games or less into a stellar career. Pre-emptive roster rebalancing is an absolute scourge.

    I think this is the best jumping-off point for investigating the bias in developmental resources & benefit of the doubt & given to drafted/highly drafted players over others. Something like the difference between WAR/82 of first round picks vs non first round picks in their first 400 NHL GP

    “Pre-emptive roster rebalancing is an absolute scourge.”

    Interesting observation. I’ll have a look.

    “I think this is the best jumping-off point for investigating the bias in developmental resources & benefit of the doubt & given to drafted/highly drafted players over others. Something like the difference between WAR/82 of first round picks vs non first round picks in their first 400 NHL GP.”

    I was only looking at GP 5 years out. First rounders, as a rule, enter the league earlier. So, with a censored dataset, you’d expect their share to be higher. The fact that it’s that high is surprising. I’ll look into what happens when I extend the timeline and capture GP from more later round picks. My second post shows the League becoming increasingly top heavy. Whether all of this is telling us about the bias in development resources or natural talent… it’s all just leads for now.

  87. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Speaking of twitter, this is a great article on they psychology of it and how its “regressing” people:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/04/opinion/sunday/the-high-school-we-cant-log-off-from.html

    Progressives no longer believe in free speech. Nor do our globat 0.1%’er neofeudal overlords, since they have lost control of the information flows.

    Remember, the point of the right to free expression is to protect objectionable expression. Unobjectionable expression doesn’t need protection.

  88. godot10 says:

    Munny: In Education, Politics, Economics, even Law and the Sciences, and of course, in the hot button issues of our day Justice is now more important than Truth.And this truth is truest on Twitter.

    What you actually mean is:

    The “appearance of Justice” is now more important than both Truth and Justice.

    i.e. Virtue Signalling is more important than Truth and Justice. This is where we are. #1984Cometh

  89. Richard S.S. says:

    Every single NHL-ready or near NHL-ready 1st Round Pick should get their “nine” playing at least 12-14 minutes a game. When sent down, they must be given a list of what they need to work on. Just sending them down because they are not ready is not enough.

  90. Wilde says:

    Lowetide: I think Leon is more likely to impact the play in the defensive zone if he develops as we hope. I don’t think Yamamoto will be that player, partly/mostly because of position but also (as you say) some of the work Leon can do based on brute strength. I admit to having dreams of Beliveau (this is my Dad’s fault) dancing in my head re: Leon.

    Hah, there’s a hand signed Beliveau photo on the wall next to the computer I’m writing this on, owned by my Dad.

    I think Leon’s advantage over Yamamoto in possession driving play actually manifests itself in the offensive zone when he has the puck and you can’t take it from them.

    I’d rate their anticipation in the defensive zone as about the same(quite good when age is factored in).

    If I have time after my Leon project, I plan to move on to Yamamoto’s audition and address his play away from the puck, which I remember as good but I’ll of course be attacking memory head-on as I am with Leon.

    who:
    I noticed Drai was already standing out as a 17 year old in the WJCs for Germany. Yamamoto really didnt do much as a 19 yr old.
    I know the numbers look the same but major junior hockey history is littered with small players putting up big numbers who couldnt produce at the NHL level.
    I know that this is changing but it doesnt make Yamamoto a sure thing. People need to temper their expectations on this player a little.

    I rate the body of work over a full season much, much higher than the short tournaments.

    To steal your words, history is littered with canyon-discrepancies between WJC performances and subsequent NHL careers.

    On that note, you actually can’t really compare their U20 WJC performances because Drai didn’t play them at D+1 and Yammer didn’t play them during his draft year.

    The only time they both played in the same tournament was D-1 WJC U-18. where Yamamoto put up 13 pts in 7 games and Leon put up 7 pts in 5 games.

  91. godot10 says:

    jtblack:
    leadfarmer,

    “18 year old D don’t help you win (unless they are top talent and even then it’s questionable)”

    Name an 18 yr old D who has had made their team and had a positive Impact?

    Doughty is probably the only one in this century. One pretty much has to be generational to make an impact on D at 18.

  92. Georgexs says:

    Munny: This is what I found confusing about LT’s benchmark.If you slow cook your prospects in the minors because you have a stellar lineup, the benchmark is nearly impossible to hit.

    So we have people advocating incubation but then using a standard that conflicts with this philosophy.

    I think we need a further check on players that hit 400 games, but didn’t make it in the first 5 years… so we can establish which teams are drafting busts and which teams are incubating.

    LT gave me a starting point to think about the draft: games played five seasons out. It’s a big topic.

    On the surface it looks like some teams seem to incubate and some teams like to push. This is going to be affected by where a team is picking. Good teams pick later and get worse prospects who have a harder time breaking the lineup. Bad teams pick earlier and get better prospects who have an easier time breaking the lineup.

    I’ve shown by the increasing share of ice-time for first-round picks, this process is top-heavy. Where a player is picked tells us a fair bit on the games he’ll play in the league, but this is largely because of the first round effect. The curve flattens considerably after the first round; after the first round, where a player is picked tells us increasingly less about how many games he’ll play if he makes it.

    Lots to look at and sort out.

  93. godot10 says:

    Georgexs: Ekblad, Chychrun, Bogosian, Hanifin?

    They played a lot of games. Depends how you’d like to define positive impact.

    I agree with the main point: Very unusual to see.

    None of them were standing on their own two feet. They were being baby-sitted. Only a generational D in Doughty was able to do it.

  94. Georgexs says:

    Munny:
    Lowetide,

    Agreed. But not having 400 games isn’t “not showing much”. 400 games is a great start to a draft group. As Georges shows, the average is 260 for a team at 5 years.

    What does the Detroit number show over that span?Poorer drafting, or slow-playing?I’m not sure and I think it is important to know.VCR I feel a little more certain about lol.

    Edit: Maybe games lost to injury should be included to.Although that’s a bit of a speculative number. How do we know a player who makes the team out of camp for the first time and gets a 3 month injury would have held onto the job?

    Since 2000, Detroit is the only team with 0 games played from players in their draft + 1 season. They have the fewest games played 5 years out. Overall, however, they’re in the middle of the pack (18th) in total games played.

    I’d guess it’s a function of picking later and incubating.

  95. blainer says:

    dustrock: Hey Blaine, ironically after all the sturm und drang about Bouchard Hunter actually singled him out for praise.

    He didn’t play the last game because Hunter wanted to focus on guys who weren’t “sure things”.

    It’s also quite possible he wasn’t used on PP1 because Hunter wanted to get a read on guys like Smith.

    This is very good explanation on Hunter’s thinking and hope you’re correct..

  96. godot10 says:

    digger50:
    I’m also down for Bouchard to be on the team for 10 NHL games, playing 6-7.

    The concern for me in regards to Bouchard is intensity and pace. There have been many superstars in lesser leagues that have been developed poorly and could not make the jump. They were played too much. Things got easy. They didn’t have to work as hard for results. They started to pace themselves, conserving energy for offensive opportunities.

    That’s great success for the OHL and if Evan can be as calm in the NHL that would be the goal. However in order to get there I think he will have to get back to quicker shifts, higher intensity.

    The risk of sending him back to OHL is it just may be too easy. The benefit of a few NHL games is it will allow him an understanding of where he needs to get to. I don’t know him, these comments are from far away, but seems that he needs more than OHL and less than NHL. Sweden produces excellent D men.

    The OHL won’t be easy. Boqvist will be trying to steal his lunch. If you mess around with Bouchard and waste the fall before sending him down, Boqvist will have stolen his lunch.

    Bouchard should be sent back to London before they head to Europe period.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    oilersjo:
    As a PA Raider fan I am very interested in how these young defensemen will react to Dave Manson.He has developed some fine prospects in the last few years.We could use a Manson type playerand would be good to see him work with nurse also.

    I didn’t realize that Manson was developing such a track record and reputation.

    With him and Yawney, our young d-men should have all the tools they need to develop.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If those fans and they way they talk about the team on twitter bother you that much, why do you read what they write?

    There is a large segment of Oiler’s Fan twitter that wants to police how people should think and talk about the Oilers.

    I mute them and it makes my twitter experience much better.

    You should try liberally using the mute button on the people who bother you instead of worrying about what they say.

    I agree with this, very much.

    I’m a fairly positive and optimistic Oiler fan although I don’t think I hesitate to criticize management and the coaching staff when I think its warranted.

    There is a certain group/sect that is very active on twitter that seem to think that any criticism of a player, a coaching decision or a management decision means one is not an Oiler fan. God forbid that person opine that a rival team made a good move or a rival team has a player that is better than an Oiler player (i.e GIordano over Sekera).

    They call out others with name calling, personal attacks, condescension and aggressiveness.

    I can’t bring myself or mute or block but it does decrease my enjoyment of something I value, talking about the Oilers.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    Georgexs:
    How does Bouchard get 9 games? Who in the top 6 sits? Is he getting 9 games because one of the 6 is injured?

    He can be with the team and practice with the team and be on the roster with getting a spot in the lineup hear and there. He does not have to play every game as long as he’s not on the roster past 39 games before being sent back to London (if he is being sent back).

    Of course, there will be injuries.

    Also, I wouldn’t mind seeing 11F and 7D used sporadically – McDavid and Drai could get some extra ice at evens on the 4th line.

  100. digger50 says:

    godot10: The OHL won’t be easy.Boqvist will be trying to steal his lunch.If you mess around with Bouchard and waste the fall before sending him down, Boqvist will have stolen his lunch.

    Bouchard should be sent back to London before they head to Europe period.

    Disagree

    Boqvist is irrelevant, we don’t know what will happen with him.

    You have to define “messing around” and “wasting the fall” on Bouchard. He has three years in the OHL, he appears to be physically and mentally a step ahead of his peers. Sending him straight to OHL and hoping for the best seems a waste to me.

    If “messing around” includes exposing him to the speed and pace of the NHL, even if just preseason. And getting a professional assessment of his abilities, strengths and weaknesses, and providing him with feedback on what he needs to do – then I think messing around with him is the best idea.

    The only benefit I can see sending right to OHL is he is out of sight. For Oiler prospects, out of sight while developing your game is a good thing.

    The big difference between Yammer and Bouchard was that Yamamoto was at 1RW. It was disruptive to building line combinations and not a great place to gain your first exposure to the league. Bouchard would be 6-7 d man with limited exposure if used correctly.

    Each player is different. I thought I could see from here the Jessie was a step behind his peers and not ready. With Evan it looks like his path should be different than Jessie or
    Yamamoto.

    I predict something new develops like Etan Bear jumps up and has a great camp, or we have a top 4 injury which will influence the Bouchard decision.

  101. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: He can be with the team and practice with the team and be on the roster with getting a spot in the lineup hear and there. He does not have to play every game as long as he’s not on the roster past 39 games before being sent back to London (if he is being sent back).

    Of course, there will be injuries.

    Also, I wouldn’t mind seeing 11F and 7D used sporadically – McDavid and Drai could get some extra ice at evens on the 4th line.

    But this is a horrible plan. There are very few really practices in the NHL. Pre-game skates are not real practices.

    Sitting out half a season in one of the most critical years of development is a bad plan.

  102. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree with this, very much.

    I’m a fairly positive and optimistic Oiler fan although I don’t think I hesitate to criticize management and the coaching staff when I think its warranted.

    There is a certain group/sect that is very active on twitter that seem to think that any criticism of a player, a coaching decision or a management decision means one is not an Oiler fan.God forbid that person opine that a rival team made a good move or a rival team has a player that is better than an Oiler player (i.e GIordano over Sekera).

    They call out others with name calling, personal attacks, condescension and aggressiveness.

    I can’t bring myself or mute or block but it does decrease my enjoyment of something I value, talking about the Oilers.

    I’m a complete spectator on twitter(mostly because I have 3 followers) and I still know exactly who you’re talking about LOL

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    Wasn’t Drake Caggiula at 42 NHLE?

    Also, I had higher hopes for Joe Gambardella due to his high NHLE

    Right there is why I don’t really trust the NHLE numbers but I use them more as a source to compare players at certain ages.

  104. godot10 says:

    digger50:
    Wasn’t Drake Caggiula at 42 NHLE?

    Also, I had higher hopes for Joe Gambardella due to his high NHLE

    Caggiula was zoomed by Schmaltz and Boeser. A collegian Blair MacDonald and/or Warren Young.

  105. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: He can be with the team and practice with the team and be on the roster with getting a spot in the lineup hear and there. He does not have to play every game as long as he’s not on the roster past 39 games before being sent back to London (if he is being sent back).

    Of course, there will be injuries.

    Also, I wouldn’t mind seeing 11F and 7D used sporadically – McDavid and Drai could get some extra ice at evens on the 4th line.

    Why would you keep him to play sporadically when he could be playing all the time. The reason for me saying that 18 year old defenseman don’t help you win is because they have so much to learn to make the jump to pros that they have plenty to learn in the juniors. Whether it’s skating, defensive reads, qb a pp, passing or any of a large number of skills a dmen needs to be a good NHL dman. There is always plenty for him to learn. OHL is a good league, he will face good competition and with World Juniors, Playoffs he will get good competition.
    He will not get bored. Nurse didn’t get bored. For me the bigger question is will he get 9 games in a year.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    Wasn’t Drake Caggiula at 42 NHLE?

    Also, I had higher hopes for Joe Gambardella due to his high NHLE

    Right there is why I don’t really trust the NHLE numbers but I use them more as a source to compare players at certain ages.

    digger50:
    I’m also down for Bouchard to be on the team for 10 NHL games, playing 6-7.

    The concern for me in regards to Bouchard is intensity and pace. There have been many superstars in lesser leagues that have been developed poorly and could not make the jump. They were played too much. Things got easy. They didn’t have to work as hard for results. They started to pace themselves, conserving energy for offensive opportunities.

    That’s great success for the OHL and if Evan can be as calm in the NHL that would be the goal. However in order to get there I think he will have to get back to quicker shifts, higher intensity.

    The risk of sending him back to OHL is it just may be too easy. The benefit of a few NHL games is it will allow him an understanding of where he needs to get to. I don’t know him, these comments are from far away, but seems that he needs more than OHL and less than NHL. Sweden produces excellent D men.

    I agree with this and have been saying something similar for a little bit – I wonder if Bouchard learned some bad habit playing so many minutes in London and forgot how to play with intensity shift after shift, and for the entire shift?

    Conserving energy on the ice is a skill that elite d-man will need when they are playing 27 minutes per night but Bouchard is not Ryan Suter, not right now. Bouchard needs to work all shift and each and every shift at this point of his development.

    Can he do that in London?

    I’m also not sure if Boquist on the team helps or hurts Bouchard’s ability to develop back in London.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    blainer: This is very good explanation on Hunter’s thinking and hope you’re correct..

    I do agree that Hunter (and the management team) didn’t really feel the need to look at Bouchard as he’s a lock for the team and a lock to play a material role.

    On the other hand, I’m surprised they didn’t want to take more of a look at a guy like McLeod who is a bubble guy to make the team – maybe he’s too far on the outside looking in for this team?

  108. oilersjo says:

    Do you think Bouchard makes the Junior team does it make a difference

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: But this is a horrible plan.There are very few really practices in the NHL.Pre-game skates are not real practices.

    Sitting out half a season in one of the most critical years of development is a bad plan.

    I disagree that its a horrible plan.

    While I would agree that there is less practice time that most coaches want, there is still lots of practice time and being with team and travelling with the team and learning how to be a pro has value in itself.

    Spending 6 weeks with the team (or 8 or whatever it may be) as opposed to going back to London, and playing in a league where he was able to play over half the game (and likely picking up many bad habits that are currently hampering him), won’t hurt him.

    Didn’t seem to hurt Alex P.

    At the end of the day, I have no idea on his readiness to play even a sheltered 3rd pairing role. I won’t have any real idea until the very end of camp as the first half of camp involves non-NHL lineups in the X games.

    A bit of experience to start the year, sheltered, and a bit of a delay going back to London will do no harm to his development.

    He may not be ready for even that role in the NHL – that I don’t know – but I’m not worried about it hampering his development.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Why would you keep him to play sporadically when he could be playing all the time.The reason for me saying that 18 year old defenseman don’t help you win is because they have so much to learn to make the jump to pros that they have plenty to learn in the juniors.Whether it’s skating, defensive reads, qb a pp, passing or any of a large number of skills a dmen needs to be a good NHL dman.There is always plenty for him to learn.OHL is a good league, he will face good competition and with World Juniors, Playoffs he will get good competition.
    He will not get bored.Nurse didn’t get bored.For me the bigger question is will he get 9 games in a year.

    I don’t disagree that he will have lots to learn from the OHL but think he may have to “learn what he has to learn”. From accounts he was playing over 30 minutes per game and was solid defensively and dynamic offensively. The game was easy for him last year and I believe that he many have lost a bit of intensity on the ice and maybe learned some bad habits.

    Some time with the NHL team, even if playing sporadically, may just shown him how large the cap between the NHL and the CHL is and that he can’t “conserve energy on the ice” and provide him with knowledge of what he needs to learn from a 4th year in junior.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    oilersjo:
    Do you think Bouchard makes the Junior teamdoes it make a difference

    He’s a lock if he’s not in the NHL. He likely gets a letter.

  112. northerndancer says:

    My greatest apologies to Lowetide for sullying this great blog last night. And to all who were named in haste and in a false sense of humour that even I didn’t find funny this morning. You may not know who you are but I do and I sincerely apologize. It was all meant with great affection for you fine folks but that certainly did not translate onto the page. There are reasons I stay off social media and I need to respect those reasons.

    Thanks again for such a great ongoing conversation….I will continue to read, lurk and enjoy.

  113. hunter1909 says:

    Bouchard’s got a great shot and makes a great pass.

    Oilers have no one like him.

    Honestly in what universe doesn’t he make the starting lineup? Seriously, you all need to take a step back from the ledge. Any normal person is capable of NOT being excellent every single time they’re put under pressure.

    The fact he’s not a Connor McDavid level talent has zero bearing on his future performance. I can easily imagine myself getting stuck under the microscope and not being perfectly wonderful. He’s an 18 year old, still maturing in a process that hopefully takes another ten years. Geez.

  114. hunter1909 says:

    northerndancer:
    My greatest apologies to Lowetide for sullying this great blog last night.And to all who were named in haste and in a false sense of humour that even I didn’t find funny this morning.You may not know who you are but I do and I sincerely apologize.It was all meant with great affection for you fine folks but that certainly did not translate onto the page. There are reasons I stay off social media and I need to respect those reasons.

    Thanks again for such a great ongoing conversation….I will continue to read, lurk and enjoy.

    Some posters take themselves a little too seriously. Some of them do responsible things in the real world and it’s hard to change spots.

    If you name names, of course you end up having to take it back on the chin otherwise just don’t piss Lowetide off lol he’s the only one with any real power around here.

  115. VOR says:

    I’d like to propose a thought experiment.

    Your balmy Uncle Elmer just died. He lived in a rusted out Volkswagen van. But his estate was worth millions of dollars.

    He left one of those millions to you. But before you get too excited he tied that money up. You have to invest it. And you can only invest it in off-ice tools for helping hockey GMs, scouts, and coaches be more successful.

    You get to keep any money you make.

    What do you invest in? How do you monetize that investment?

  116. VOR says:

    northerndancer:
    My greatest apologies to Lowetide for sullying this great blog last night.And to all who were named in haste and in a false sense of humour that even I didn’t find funny this morning.You may not know who you are but I do and I sincerely apologize.It was all meant with great affection for you fine folks but that certainly did not translate onto the page. There are reasons I stay off social media and I need to respect those reasons.

    Thanks again for such a great ongoing conversation….I will continue to read, lurk and enjoy.

    I thought it was hilarious last night and still do. Don’t stop posting. You have a fun and unique voice.

  117. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    VOR,

    Augmented reality and an advanced bio-mechanics team, to start. Modernize the scouts toward advanced stats but keep them separate from the statisticians.

    Probably blew my wad before I really got going, but that’s where I’d start.

    EDIT: as for the monetization, I’d look into licensing the augmented reality software/database and look into related fields for expansion.

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909:
    Bouchard’s got a great shot and makes a great pass.

    Oilers have no one like him.

    Honestly in what universe doesn’t he make the starting lineup? Seriously, you all need to take a step back from the ledge. Any normal person is capable of NOT being excellent every single time they’re put under pressure.

    The fact he’s not a Connor McDavid level talent has zero bearing on his future performance. I can easily imagine myself getting stuck under the microscope and not being perfectly wonderful. He’s an 18 year old, still maturing in a process that hopefully takes another ten years. Geez.

    1) The Oilers have one d-man like him, Ethan Bear – great shot and great passer. He showed last year that he is not ready for the NHL so those attributes, on their own, have proven to not be enough.

    2) The Oilers have 6 established NHL d-men so, let me turn the question around and ask you which one he beats out for a lineup spot and improves the team?

  119. hunter1909 says:

    VOR:
    I’d like to propose a thought experiment.

    Your balmy Uncle Elmer just died. He lived in a rusted out Volkswagen van. But his estate was worth millions of dollars.

    He left one of those millions to you. But before you get too excited he tied that money up. You have to invest it. And you can only invest it in off-ice tools for helping hockey GMs, scouts, and coaches be more successful.

    You get to keep any money you make.

    What do you invest in? How do you monetize that investment?

    My off ice tools will include escorting Lowe+MacT+Howson into an annex office block around 100st and 108 ave.

  120. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Thanks to LT and you others for your kind comments. That wasn’t the haters who were going after me, it was the likers who thought *I* was a hater with my single tweet about Bouchard. So they set about defending their boy against the “negative media” which was me apparently.

    Funny thing, I wrote 2 full posts about the guy with barely a negative word in either, I was even talking up his chances of possibly making the team this year. My take was and remains that his play away from the puck will determine his immediate future, and Friday’s game was my first chance to judge that since draft day. Left me underwhelmed, with that one video capturing a key moment.that others noted as well. So I posted it with the comment about his NHL readiness.

    That said I could have chosen my words more carefully in that tweet but it was never the idea that one single clip be used to reach a conclusion, just something to watch for as we move forward. But a whole lot of names that I didn’t recognize thought I was putting the kid down and they went after me big time. So it goes, lesson learned. (Maybe.)

    I do like the player, I really do, but I guess that wasn’t readily apparent to some.

  121. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1) The Oilers have one d-man like him, Ethan Bear – great shot and great passer.He showed last year that he is not ready for the NHL so those attributes, on their own, have proven to not be enough.

    2) The Oilers have 6 established NHL d-men so, let me turn the question around and ask you which one he beats out for a lineup spot and improves the team?

    First off, Yikes.

    1) Ethan Bear has always been a favourite prospect. But I tend to be a huge draft position snob with prospects drafted 10th and are, perhaps more important the 2nd ranked Canadian player taken in his draft class.

    – add Paul Coffey who I personally believe knows what he’s talking about, plus the big addition by subtraction of that Pee Wee Herman clone assistant coach – hasn’t he officially been replaced with someone very good?

    – I’m convinced that Connor McDavid’s about to go supernova this season. Secretariat level dominance of the NHL field who will be reduced to also rans in his wake. Why do I think this way? Because of the way McD was able to start scoring so many goals seemingly at will as soon as he needed to pick up the pace to win the Art Ross Trophy. The rest of the team will receive a huge boost just for turning up for the games.

    – Bear is a good prospect. he might make 2nd pairing one day, while Bouchard’s theoretically capable, provided he’s developed properly of being a future all star. So for me it’s like comparing apples and oranges.

    2 – Excellent question. In fact it’s so good that i don’t really have answer, aside that NHL teams lose defencemen by attrition every season. The head coach makes these decisions.

    – Also, the Oilers defence is nothing to honestly call any kind of a solid entity. It’s a defence that was not good enough to reach the playoffs. For example, I am a big Nurse fan, but the talk of his agent reading the riot act is sad to read. Nurse didn’t develop by my sight enough last season warrant anything more than 3-5th defenceman money. They should offer him an 8 year deal, at 4 million or else pay him more but for 2-3 seasons only. Paying for potential is for losers and morons.

  122. hunter1909 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Thanks to LT and you others for your kind comments. That wasn’t the haters who were going after me, it was the likers who thought *I* was a hater with my single tweet about Bouchard. So they set about defending their boy against the “negative media” which was me apparently.

    Funny thing, I wrote 2 full posts about the guy with barely a negative word in either, I was even talking up his chances of possibly making the team this year. My take was and remains that his play away from the puck will determine his immediate future, and Friday’s game was my first chance to judge that since draft day. Left me underwhelmed, with that one video capturing a key moment.that others noted as well. So I posted it with the comment about his NHL readiness.

    That said I could have chosen my words more carefully in that tweet but it was never the idea that one single clip be used to reach a conclusion, just something to watch for as we move forward. But a whole lot of names that I didn’t recognize thought I was putting the kid down and they went after me big time. So it goes, lesson learned. (Maybe.)

    I do like the player, I really do, but I guess that wasn’t readily apparent to some.

    Twitter = atmosphere like the Witch trial from “Monty Python and the Holy Grail”.

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR:
    I’d like to propose a thought experiment.

    Your balmy Uncle Elmer just died. He lived in a rusted out Volkswagen van. But his estate was worth millions of dollars.

    He left one of those millions to you. But before you get too excited he tied that money up. You have to invest it. And you can only invest it in off-ice tools for helping hockey GMs, scouts, and coaches be more successful.

    You get to keep any money you make.

    What do you invest in? How do you monetize that investment?

    I’m not sure there is an investment that fits the criteria.

    There will be some things that will be of use to NHL teams like a data base on software package to manage the flood of information that will come from chip tracking, but the market is only 31 teams big.

    Teams subscribing to SportLogiq’s data is why more than a few of them hired database managers last year (most famous being CGY hiring David Johnson of stats.hockeyanalysis fame), so maybe the market for a new package is even less than 31 teams.

    In order to be commercially viable you probably need a bigger market than the NHL and I’m not sure what product would fit.

    Maybe video scrapers like what Sportslogiq uses (I know others are using similar products for AHL data), but I’m not sure.

  124. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    godot10,

    “To learn who rules over you simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize” – Voltaire

  125. VOR says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m not sure there is an investment that fits the criteria.

    There will be some things that will be of use to NHL teams like a data base on software package to manage the flood of information that will come from chip tracking, but the market is only 31 teams big.

    Teams subscribing to SportLogiq’s data is why more than a few of them hired database managers last year (most famous being CGY hiring David Johnson of stats.hockeyanalysis fame), so maybe the market for a new package is even less than 31 teams.

    In order to be commercially viable you probably need a bigger market than the NHL and I’m not sure what product would fit.

    Maybe video scrapers like what Sportslogiq uses (I know others are using similar products for AHL data), but I’m not sure.

    I am looking for a crucible idea. “If it works here it will work anywhere!” I am genuinely curious what people would invest in and why. The wisdom of crowds and all.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Thanks to LT and you others for your kind comments. That wasn’t the haters who were going after me, it was the likers who thought *I* was a hater with my single tweet about Bouchard. So they set about defending their boy against the “negative media” which was me apparently.

    Funny thing, I wrote 2 full posts about the guy with barely a negative word in either, I was even talking up his chances of possibly making the team this year. My take was and remains that his play away from the puck will determine his immediate future, and Friday’s game was my first chance to judge that since draft day. Left me underwhelmed, with that one video capturing a key moment.that others noted as well. So I posted it with the comment about his NHL readiness.

    That said I could have chosen my words more carefully in that tweet but it was never the idea that one single clip be used to reach a conclusion, just something to watch for as we move forward. But a whole lot of names that I didn’t recognize thought I was putting the kid down and they went after me big time. So it goes, lesson learned. (Maybe.)

    I do like the player, I really do, but I guess that wasn’t readily apparent to some.

    As you know (and we all know), you did nothing wrong – you came across a video of the Oilers top prospect in a game in the summer and posted it. I’m sure you would have done the same thing if it was a two line stretch pass for a breakaway.

    Oilers twitter is not a fun place to be these days.

    Keep fighting the good fight Bruce.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: First off, Yikes.

    1) Ethan Bear has always been a favourite prospect. But I tend to be a huge draft position snob with prospects drafted 10th and are, perhaps more important the 2nd ranked Canadian player taken in his draft class.

    – add Paul Coffey who I personally believe knows what he’s talking about, plus the big addition by subtraction of that Pee Wee Herman clone assistant coach – hasn’t he officially been replaced with someone very good?

    – I’m convinced that Connor McDavid’s about to go supernova this season. Secretariat level dominance of the NHL field who will be reduced to also rans in his wake. Why do I think this way? Because of the way McD was able to start scoring so many goals seemingly at will as soon as he needed to pick up the pace to win the Art Ross Trophy. The rest of the team will receive a huge boost just for turning up for the games.

    – Bear is a good prospect. he might make 2nd pairing one day, while Bouchard’s theoretically capable, provided he’s developed properly of being a future all star. So for me it’s like comparing apples and oranges.

    2 – Excellent question. In fact it’s so good that i don’t really have answer, aside that NHL teams lose defencemen by attrition every season. The head coach makes these decisions.

    – Also, the Oilers defence is nothing to honestly call any kind of a solid entity. It’s a defence that was not good enough to reach the playoffs. For example, I am a big Nurse fan, but the talk of his agent reading the riot act is sad to read. Nurse didn’t develop by my sight enough last season warrant anything more than 3-5th defenceman money. They should offer him an 8 year deal, at 4 million or else pay him more but for 2-3 seasons only. Paying for potential is for losers and morons.

    On point 1, I don’t actually disagree, in fact, I think Bear tops out as a 3rd pairing guy at even strength. That’s not the point though – I was simply responding to your statement where you talked about Bouchard’s ability to shoot and pass and saying we have no other d-man like him and implying those attributes gets him a spot in the lineup.

    Fact is we have another d-man that excels in the two areas of the game you mentioned and he is the perfect example of those skills, even though they are in dire need on the big club, won’t get you to the NHL alone.

    Of course Bouchard has other skills, as does Bear, but they may not be at an NHL level at this point, like Bear.

    On point 2, Klefbom with a healthy shoulders, Sekera a further 6 months removed from knee surgery, with a full summer to train, a full training camp and no brace and Adam Larsson without a bad back – that is a much different defence than last year and much closer to the one that did get to the playoffs in 2016/17.

  128. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    VOR,

    No interest in augmented reality as a teaching tool? Another layer to video coaching, perhaps? Could even be a way to train one timers, face offs, etc. Fascinating, emerging field, IMO.

  129. Melvis says:

    VOR: I am looking for a crucible idea. “If it works here it will work anywhere!” I am genuinely curious what people would invest in and why. The wisdom of crowds and all.

    I’m going to suggest consulting – based on a model resembling McKinsey – offering a wide variety of services rather than any single element. Data, sports psychology, public relations, marlketing etc.

    It’s inhouse principals and partners already respected within their various professions.

  130. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    As a for instance.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhtQG15M7W0

    AR & VR as well as AI are going to impact sports, as well as all other areas of life in the future… might as well be an early adopter.

  131. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: On point 2, Klefbom with a healthy shoulders, Sekera a further 6 months removed from knee surgery, with a full summer to train, a full training camp and no brace and Adam Larsson without a bad back – that is a much different defence than last year and much closer to the one that did get to the playoffs in 2016/17.

    LOL this reads more like a hospital waiting room than a NHL defence.

    Bouchard’s the 2nd best Canadian in the world to be drafted in 2018. I’d be happy to wager that he’s a lot more talented and therefore potentially able to crack the lineup and I’m not going to allow a brutal August report on the 2nd best Canadian player in the world this season to influence me.

    Or, I’ll use another line of reasoning:

    Oilers need defencemen fast. Bouchard might, as you believe have enough major issues to keep him from making the Oilers this year, although I suspect you will deny this as you didn’t actually say it lol.

    If Lowe+MacT are involved, I’ll be happy to close the storefront. If Coffey and a competent coaching staff are involved, plus, given the genius of the McDavid guy I’m happy to forsee a 60% probability that he makes the team out of training camp.

  132. v4ance says:

    Georgexs,

    Hi George”XS”

    As I was leaving Oilfans.com in 2012/2013(?), I did this exact same type of drafting analysis and posted the results there.

    As the average NHL player tended to have a 3 year career, I set a marker of 200 games to qualify a player as being a successful draft pick. Based on that filter, I worked out the “average” NHL team gets (5) 200GP players out of every 2 drafts.

    Having 5 years to ponder the results, I determined in 2012 that Detroit actually had a below average drafting organization since the early 2000’s but no one believed me. The team was carried along by the fruits of the drafts of the late 1990’s with Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kronwall, etc. all acquired as late round gems. In the 2000’s during Detroit’s dominance, the team didn’t need to draft as many top 6 wingers or top 4 defencemen because those players were all well established long term members of the team. Plus Holland had a tendency to trade his upper draft picks to fill in his roster holes (think Larinonov, Chelios, Mathieu Schnieder, Robert Lang, etc.) or he signed UFAs who fit in seamlessly Rafalski, etc. The players Detroit got out of the draft tended to be quality “homeruns” but their quantity was below most other NHL organizations.

    Also, think of all the “bad” teams who struggle. They will churn out a lot of players who make ~100 games threshold but not much more. In terms of Oilers, think of all the players like MAP, Colin MacDonald, JFJ, Theo Peckham, Liam Reddox, etc. SO a lot of the players wouldn’t have made even 100 games if the teams actually had quality NHLers on the squad. A lot of the games accrued were just “bodies to fill an NHL roster” games. Also think of the effect of not having enough NHLer’s on the team to give guys who should have been just AHL/NHL tweeners more games played too *cough* Caggulia *cough*. Both of these factors will skew the results of who actually drafted well.

  133. Lowetide says:

    V4ance: Your post reminded me of some more. When a team like Edmonton is drafting so high every year the actual roster spots available for skill are very low. Hall, Nuge, Klef, Yak, Nurse, Leon, McDavid in a six year period means not much opportunity left. If Edmonton had drafted/developed/retained, five of the top 6F and two of the top 4D would be wrapped up for a decade or more. Hard to get into the lineup when your team has been drafting that high. Call it the Poddubny factor, and I agree cream rises but all the other teams have guys they like too.

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: LOL this reads more like a hospital waiting room than a NHL defence.

    Bouchard’s the 2nd best Canadian in the world to be drafted in 2018. I’d be happy to wager that he’s a lot more talented and therefore potentially able to crack the lineup and I’m not going to allow a brutal August report on the 2nd best Canadian player in the world this season to influence me.

    Or, I’ll use another line of reasoning:

    Oilers need defencemen fast. Bouchard might, as you believe have enough major issues to keep him from making the Oilers this year, although I suspect you will deny this as you didn’t actually say it lol.

    If Lowe+MacT are involved, I’ll be happy to close the storefront. If Coffey and a competent coaching staff are involved, plus, given the genius of the McDavid guy I’m happy to forsee a 60% probability that he makes the team out of training camp.

    I’m not sure what being the 2nd best Canadian drafted has to do with anything? Please explain.

    You are pretty sure he’s more talented and potentially able to crack the lineup than who? I assume you mean Bear and I don’t disagree but I only bring up Bear to retort to you original point that was (1) we don’t have anyone else with a plus shot and passing ability and (2) those two skills should get a player in our NHL lineup.

    I will disagree that the Oilers “need d-men fast” – As I said, there are currently 6 established NHL d-men which should allow for an important teenager to not be rushed.

    I’m not saying Bouchard shouldn’t make the Oilers roster – I don’t know if he should, I’ll let you know my thoughts in late September/early October.

    What I will say is that history shows (and its been set out in detail in this very thread) that the likelihood of a just drafted d-man making a material positive impact in the NHL in his draft plus 1 year is quite remote.

    I think he will be with the team in Europe and I think that he will play games with the Oilers, however, I do not think that its a given that inserting him in to the lineup over any existing d-man makes the team better and will help win hockey games in October 2018.

  135. Munny says:

    Georgexs: Lots to look at and sort out.

    Agreed. Thank you for both your replies.

    Lowetide: Luck, mostly. That’s my opinion on it.

    Certainly can’t be ruled out at this point.

  136. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide:
    V4ance: Your post reminded me of some more. When a team like Edmonton is drafting so high every year the actual roster spots available for skill are very low. Hall, Nuge, Klef, Yak, Nurse, Leon, McDavid in a six year period means not much opportunity left. If Edmonton had drafted/developed/retained, five of the top 6F and two of the top 4D would be wrapped up for a decade or more. Hard to get into the lineup when your team has been drafting that high. Call it the Poddubny factor, and I agree cream rises but all the other teams have guys they like too.

    Unicorns LT.

    You run as much out scoring skill as possible.

  137. pts2pndr says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Thanks to LT and you others for your kind comments. That wasn’t the haters who were going after me, it was the likers who thought *I* was a hater with my single tweet about Bouchard. So they set about defending their boy against the “negative media” which was me apparently.

    Funny thing, I wrote 2 full posts about the guy with barely a negative word in either, I was even talking up his chances of possibly making the team this year. My take was and remains that his play away from the puck will determine his immediate future, and Friday’s game was my first chance to judge that since draft day. Left me underwhelmed, with that one video capturing a key moment.that others noted as well. So I posted it with the comment about his NHL readiness.

    That said I could have chosen my words more carefully in that tweet but it was never the idea that one single clip be used to reach a conclusion, just something to watch for as we move forward. But a whole lot of names that I didn’t recognize thought I was putting the kid down and they went after me big time. So it goes, lesson learned. (Maybe.)

    I do like the player, I really do, but I guess that wasn’t readily apparent to some.

    Glad to see you are still on this site. I have the utmost respect for your reasoned approach and insight! The pack mentality is closer to the surface than many of us realize!

  138. Munny says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    You’re always enjoyed here, Bruce. Well, now that Mr. Ferrari is professionally employed, lol.

    The hockey this week didn’t look very structured to my eye, and physicality was nearly non-existent. I’m not too concerned about mistakes in a game of high level shinny. We’ll get lots of looks to make judgments on Bouchard in the future. That’s my opinion.

  139. Georgexs says:

    v4ance,

    Here’s what I get from nhl.com data:

    Draft Year, # Players Who Played in the NHL, # Players Who Played 200+ Games, # Players Still Active

    2000, 117, 44, 6
    2001, 123, 59, 9
    2002, 103, 48, 12
    2003, 129, 69, 33
    2004, 128, 62, 30
    2005, 111, 50, 33
    2006, 91, 42, 39
    2007, 97, 41, 41
    2008, 107, 46, 50
    2009, 115, 50, 65
    2010, 104, 39, 61
    2011, 123, 36, 67
    2012, 102, 27, 62
    2013, 92, 16, 47
    2014, 64, 8, 54
    2015, 57, 3, 55
    2016, 23, 0, 23
    2017, 12, 0, 12

  140. Georgexs says:

    v4ance,

    And here’s what I get in terms of average and median number of seasons played for players who made the league in each draft year:

    Season, Average # of Seasons Played, Median # of Seasons Played

    2000, 5.7, 3
    2001, 6.4, 5
    2002, 6.7, 6
    2003, 7.0, 6
    2004, 6.1, 5.5
    2005, 6.0, 6
    2006, 6.0, 6
    2007, 5.3, 5
    2008, 5.2, 5
    2009, 4.8, 5
    2010, 4.0, 4
    2011, 3.5, 4
    2012, 3.0, 3
    2013, 2.6, 2
    2014, 2.0, 2
    2015, 1.7, 2
    2016, 1.4, 1
    2017, 1.0, 1

  141. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: What you actually mean is:

    The “appearance of Justice” is now more important than both Truth and Justice.

    i.e. Virtue Signalling is more important than Truth and Justice.This is where we are.#1984Cometh

    I find your opinions on these matters far closer to reality than those of your’s around the OIlers 🙂

  142. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Unicorns LT.

    You run as much out scoring skill as possible.

    Have you met the Oilers?

  143. Georgexs says:

    v4ance,

    So it looks like the draft supplies 200+ game players at a slower rate than 2.5 per draft per team (or 5 every 2 drafts). It looks to be more in the 1.5 to 2 range. And based on the first round data I posted earlier, it looks like the typical team gets a 200 game player in the first round and a better than even chance of another 200 game player in all the other rounds. I did this quick but I think it’s OK.

  144. v4ance says:

    Lowetide,

    It was an intellectual exercise but i was wondering: what should the goal be for a successful drafting organization?

    Do you want one 400 game player and one 200 game player each draft or do you want one 600 game player or three players who each get to about 200 games?

    I supposed the answer would be based on what is the current state of the franchise.

    A team like the Washington Capitals right now should be looking at drafting a bunch of complimentary 200 game players and taking longshot bets on possible high skill 600+ game players to maintain their period of contention. As mid career vets approach their UFA years/contracts, you should be ready to trade them for picks and prospects while having a mature prospect ready to step into the lineup via your pipeline.

    For a team like the Buffalo Sabres or the Vancouver Canucks at the bottom of a rebuild, you should be shooting for 600+ game “core” players in each draft and maybe get lucky and pick up a few 200 game players too.

    As you said, thinking of the Oilers, we’ve done that part well picking up Hall, Nuge, Klef, Nurse, Drai, and finally McDavid in consecutive drafts. Where we appear to be struggling is in the bottom 6 area of procurement, your Pisani types that you keep banging on about. Chiarelli has tried to solve the problem by overpaying a bunch of them….

  145. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Have you met the Oilers?

    Unicorns goddamn it!!

    I guess we’ll just have to wait for 80% of the league to be doing it until EDM catches on.

    They’re just finding out about the “play fast” innovation CHI, DET and PIT played 10 years ago.

  146. v4ance says:

    Georgexs,

    Ooops.. you’re right Georges… I said five over two drafts but it was three as you corrected me. My bad. i knew it was an odd number :p

  147. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Melvis: I’m going to suggest consulting – based on a model resembling McKinsey – offering a wide variety ofservices rather than any single element. Data, sports psychology, public relations, marlketing etc.

    It’s inhouse principals and partners already respected within their various professions.

    I see the need in the NHL market in maximizing current assets more than anything, Far behind, in Vor’s own words, other major leagues.

    Mental skills development, explosiveness, vision training, stamina, personal well being skill training. Develop a structure that can function in perpetuity, constantly recruiting and training talent as it gets hired away.

  148. digger50 says:

    VOR:
    I’d like to propose a thought experiment.

    Your balmy Uncle Elmer just died. He lived in a rusted out Volkswagen van. But his estate was worth millions of dollars.

    He left one of those millions to you. But before you get too excited he tied that money up. You have to invest it. And you can only invest it in off-ice tools for helping hockey GMs, scouts, and coaches be more successful.

    You get to keep any money you make.

    What do you invest in? How do you monetize that investment?

    I invest it in the establishment of an underground lair. I bring the best cloning scientists in the world on board. And then I ask Connor for a small DNA sample.

  149. Georgexs says:

    v4ance,

    – Nice observations on DET. The organization did take longer than others to bring prospects into the league. As you mentioned, this is likely a product of the quality already on the roster and management’s willingness to swap first round picks for immediate needs. DET had the fewest first round picks since 2000, just 11 in 19 drafts.

    – Your second point is also a good critique of using GP alone to evaluate draft success. CBJ has a good draft record by GP, but, as an expansion team, a lot of their picks were fast tracked and likely given longer auditions than they would’ve earned on stronger teams.

    – Right now, for draft success, I think it’s better to use points/GP for forwards, TOI/GP for defensemen, and GP for goalies. Still working through it.

  150. Lowetide says:

    v4ance:
    Lowetide,

    It was an intellectual exercise but i was wondering: what should the goal be for a successful drafting organization?

    Do you want one 400 game playerand one 200 game player each draft or do you want one 600 game player or three players who each get to about 200 games?

    I supposed the answer would be based on what is the current state of the franchise.

    A team like the Washington Capitals right now should be looking at drafting a bunch of complimentary 200 game players and taking longshot bets on possible high skill 600+ game players to maintain their period of contention. As mid career vets approach their UFA years/contracts, you should be ready to trade them for picks and prospects while having a mature prospect ready to step into the lineup via your pipeline.

    For a team like the Buffalo Sabres or the Vancouver Canucks at the bottom of a rebuild, you should be shooting for 600+ game “core” players in each draft and maybe get lucky and pick up a few 200 game players too.

    As you said, thinking of the Oilers, we’ve done that part well picking up Hall, Nuge, Klef, Nurse, Drai, and finally McDavid in consecutive drafts.Where we appear to be struggling is in the bottom 6 area of procurement, your Pisani types that you keep banging on about.Chiarelli has tried to solve the problem by overpaying a bunch of them….

    I’ve always felt teams should draft skill guys like demons. If they can skate and they can score, draft them. You can always trade for the sixes and sevens and nines. The best draft by one team I’ve ever seen? Oilers 1979 followed closely by Oilers 1980, Detroit 1989.

  151. v4ance says:

    The next question organizationally: Is your development system working well?

    If I made the statement: Lander was a successful draft pick; what would you say?

    What if I said he was a good pick but failed by the development system and the management. If we think of the “Island of misfit toys” player types who haven’t been able to stick but appeared to have possible NHL quality: Lander, Omark, Yakupov, Hartikainen, Ovitu, etc. Is that mostly on the player or is that the fault of coaching and management to not develop, utilize and maximize their talents.

    Is there a games played or TOI threshold that all prospects should be allowed to play? Like every draft pick (skater) who gets to the AHL/ECHL needs to get into at least 40 games each season and at least 12 minutes per game? How are most organizations doing according to that threshold? Are the Oilers acheiving that?

  152. Georgexs says:

    The Bouchard thing is interesting.

    The data shows that it’s unusual for teams to play their first round defensemen picks in their draft + 1 season. (around a 1 in 7 chance)

    It also shows that, if they do decide to play the first round defenseman in his draft + 1, they’ve basically decided he’s a regular player and they give him a lot of games. (a 3 in 4 chance)

    Teams don’t break camp with a draft + 1 defenseman they intend to send down. It’s not a thing they do. No matter how much it may help that defenseman’s development. He’s just one guy. There are 20 some other guys. It’s the team that has to win games. If the defenseman’s team doesn’t figure out before the end of TC whether he can play at the NHL level, the other teams surely will.

    The League, to me, is like a high stakes poker table. The really good players basically pass money back and forth to each other while waiting to feast on the fishes who come and go.

    Others have pointed it out and I agree. The Yamamoto decision from last season must have been very demoralizing for the depth players coming out of TC. The only way they can keep Bouchard out of TC this time around is if he’s good enough to keep for the entire season.

  153. Lowetide says:

    v4ance:
    If I made the statement: Lander was a successful draft pick; what would you say?

    My opinion on Anton is this: The club did him no favours in keeping him for the 2011-12 season, he should have been in the AHL scoring goals. I liked him.

    He didn’t have the boots.

  154. Robinthe403 says:

    Lowetide,

    Uh, for your non-Russian speaking audience, do you have a link for a translation?

  155. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Georgexs: this is likely a product of the quality already on the roster

    Holland said this was exactly the case, and that drafting small skill players was a direct result of drafting low, period.

    He said that the resulting style all manifested from these circumstances, and that if they had a big tough team they likely would have played more in that style.

    It has been shown before they have drafted mid pack at best. Most of the stories around them are the same myths that develop around any successful team. There is as much luck as brains in almost every case. Wobbly boot and all.

  156. Munny says:

    Robinthe403,

    Google Translate is your friend.

  157. Dee Dee says:

    digger50: I invest it in the establishment of an underground lair. I bring the best cloning scientists in the world on board. And then I ask Connor for a small DNA sample.

    Connor doesn’t need another Connor. He needs a Wayne….

  158. Bank Shot says:

    VOR:
    I’d like to propose a thought experiment.

    Your balmy Uncle Elmer just died. He lived in a rusted out Volkswagen van. But his estate was worth millions of dollars.

    He left one of those millions to you. But before you get too excited he tied that money up. You have to invest it. And you can only invest it in off-ice tools for helping hockey GMs, scouts, and coaches be more successful.

    You get to keep any money you make.

    What do you invest in? How do you monetize that investment?

    I’d invest in cocaine. Keeps those managers and coaches burning the midnight oil, and I guarantee you can find a market for that product. 🙂

  159. maudite says:

    Renovating another section of the house the city built into “luxury” seats so that I don’t have to include it in hockey related revenue…or investing in a few more mayor campaigns.

    VOR:
    I’d like to propose a thought experiment.

    Your balmy Uncle Elmer just died. He lived in a rusted out Volkswagen van. But his estate was worth millions of dollars.

    He left one of those millions to you. But before you get too excited he tied that money up. You have to invest it. And you can only invest it in off-ice tools for helping hockey GMs, scouts, and coaches be more successful.

    You get to keep any money you make.

    What do you invest in? How do you monetize that investment?

  160. ArmchairGM says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    I hope the Oilers give Puljujarvi a long run with Mcdavid and Nuge to start the season.

    He has a better tool box than Rattie and more pro experience than Yamamoto.

    Getting the big Fin producing from one of, if the not the greatest, cat bird seat in the NHL today could unlock his potential.

    This. All day.

  161. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide: I think Yamamoto is a more one dimensional player, or at least his overall skills suggest it. Offensively, I agree. He’s the real thing.

    He can’t physically dominate opponents like Draisaitl can, but he’s a back-checking demon. Hardly one-dimensional.

  162. OriginalPouzar says:

    The problem is a depth problem.

    I am uncertain if Ty Rattie is an NHL player when not paired with McDavid and his career history would lead one to believe that he is not. So, if we take him off McDavid’s wing (which I agree will and should happen) and Yamamoto requires some AHL times, well, we are already dipping in to AHL players to insert in the lienup – either rushing a prospect or Malone. Not a great result for Game 1.

    Its important that one more cheap NHL veteran forward is acquired – the waiver wire likely comes in handy.

  163. ArmchairGM says:

    who: And I’ll suggest you are wrong.
    I noticed Drai was already standing out as a 17 year old in the WJCs for Germany. Yamamoto really didnt do much as a 19 yr old.
    I know the numbers look the same but major junior hockey history is littered with small players putting up big numbers who couldnt produce at the NHL level.
    I know that this is changing but it doesnt make Yamamoto a sure thing. People need to temper their expectations on this player a little.
    I need to see more than I did last year before I annoint him our 1RW.

    Puljujarvi is the 1RW of the future, IMO. That makes Yamamoto the future 2RW – their respective skill-sets work best in this manner.

  164. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Bouchard should be sent back to London before they head to Europe period.

    I agree. Bouchard should get Oilers TC and some pre-season games, then sent home with a comprehensive to-do list for a full OHL season and WJC. Then, if he does well and improves in the required areas, and if the Knights don’t make the playoffs, a late season NHL debut is possible. The OHL season concludes 23 days before the NHL season, so a showcase could happen then if the Oilers are either comfortably in the playoffs or out of it altogether. If the Oilers are fighting for a wild card spot and the D corps if healthy, Bouchard should join the Condors for a professional look-see.

  165. VOR says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    As a for instance.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhtQG15M7W0

    AR & VR as well as AI are going to impact sports, as well as all other areas of life in the future… might as well be an early adopter.

    I actually really liked your augmented reality idea. Thanks for the link and for taking it seriously. I also saw merit in Woodguy’s video scraping idea.

  166. VOR says:

    digger50: I invest it in the establishment of an underground lair. I bring the best cloning scientists in the world on board. And then I ask Connor for a small DNA sample.

    One of the many fascinating things about cloning is we now know DNA alone doesn’t tell the entire story. Cloned animals are genotypically identical to the donor animal but there are huge differences in phenotype.

    Cloned animals are different sizes than donors, have different body composition, and different personalities. Cloning Conor might well produce a couch potato who can’t even skate.

  167. ArmchairGM says:

    hunter1909: My off ice tools will include escorting

    FTFY

  168. VOR says:

    Melvis: I’m going to suggest consulting – based on a model resembling McKinsey – offering a wide variety ofservices rather than any single element. Data, sports psychology, public relations, marlketing etc.

    It’s inhouse principals and partners already respected within their various professions.

    I think this is the beginning of a great and highly workable idea.

  169. VOR says:

    Bank Shot: I’d invest in cocaine. Keeps those managers and coaches burning the midnight oil, and I guarantee you can find a market for that product.

    I think cocaine is not the drug you want in this case. Kava kava (Piper mesthicum) might be a better bet. Keeps you awake and improves your cognitive functioning.

  170. Melvis says:

    My Live Nation model includes everything. It’s a 2 billion sports related heavy weight offering anything and everything to 1700 sports franchises globally. Melvis LLP. Takin care of sports business since 1977. VOR is an equity partner, of course.

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