Every Breaking Waive

by Lowetide

There are few things in life I enjoy more than a waiver claim. The old Intra-League draft was one, the annual entry draft is another, and there are a few private things a gentleman doesn’t talk about in public. Either way, waiver claims are right up there in terms of appeal, so you can imagine how much my heart soared when the Oilers general manager specifically brought up the subject yesterday. Music!

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

PETER CHIARELLI’S 2018 SUMMER LIST

  1. Veteran scoring right winger. I’ve always seen this as ‘replacing Jordan Eberle’ but with the acquisition of Tobias Rieder perhaps we’re looking at a more complete player. It’s also true that in-house options like Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto might make things moot.
  2. Two-way left winger. The signing of Kyle Brodziak, a center, addresses this need and gives the coach a veteran he can count on. This could also easily be Rieder, in fact he’s a perfect fit for this area. If we started plotting the roster and began with the third line, a Rieder-Nuge pairing might be fabulous.https://www.nhl.com/news/connor-mcdavid-anticipates-improved-edmonton-oilers/c-299703398?tid=277548856
  3. Puck mover. I didn’t think this should be a priority, and the addition of Evan Bouchard appears to have calmed the waters. I don’t believe Bouchard is going to play the entire season, so this might be a waiver option.
  4. No. 7 defender. My suspicion is that Kevin Gravel wins this job over Keegan Lowe and others.
  5. Backup goalie. The Oilers spent some money on Mikko Koskinen, an expensive, unproven option but his resume is solid.

It was a quiet summer, but Connor McDavid is saying all the right things. I’ve said this many times before, but it’s the minutes when McDavid is at rest that are at issue. Rieder was a helluva find.

WAIVERS LIST

  • Anaheim: Chase De Leo. The Ducks traded for him at the end of June. He scored 69, 12-23-35 in the AHL and I think he could easily replace Drake Caggiula (they are similar players) at a far lower cap hit.
  • Arizona: Michael Bunting. I liked his speed and skill on draft day 2014, not much has changed. His AHL totals (67, 23-20-43) showed marked improvement and he has to be close to making his NHL debut.
  • Florida: Frank Vatrano. The Panthers shuffle players with extreme regularity, Vatrano has some offensive touch and doesn’t cost a lot.
  • Tampa Bay: Adam Erne. He’s been a slow developing player in a machine gun system, but I like his size/speed/low center of gravity. He’s the kind of player who can dig out pucks for the skill forwards.
  • Toronto: Josh Leivo. Toronto has a bunch of kids who are pushing by him (Johnsson for sure) but Leivo remains a worthy bet. I’ve been mentioning him so long, he’ll probably end up in Calgary scoring 20 goals a season with Monahan.
  • Winnipeg: Marko Dano. Has many nice things, including speed and skill. Bloom is off the rose now but maybe all he needs is a change of scenery. Has played for three NHL teams, that’s a lot for someone 24 who isn’t completely established.

TRAINING CAMP BATTLES

  • Peter Chiarelli: We’re going to kind of take it slowly because we also have some guys that may compete and beat out guys – younger players – that might be in that category.” Source

I found this quote (I didn’t hear the interview but the article linked to is solid) to be interesting because there doesn’t seem to be a lot of battles. I count 29 men for 23 jobs, but the players most likely to be sent out are Al Montoya, Keegan Lowe, Ethan Bear, Brad Malone and Cooper Marody. So it’s really 24 men for 23 jobs. Plus the waiver wire.

  • No. 1 RW: Leon Draisaitl remains on the roster, so don’t completely discount the idea of a McDavid-Draisaitl combination. Ty Rattie, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Drake Caggiula and Pontus Aberg are all possibilities, plus the waiver wire. My belief is the Oilers have Yamamoto ahead of Puljujarvi, but the Finn may spike this fall and he has the biggest hammer of all (impact potential).
  • No. 2 RW: Tobias Rieder may have the inside track, at least early. This is (in my opinion) the entry point for Puljujarvi into the top 6F, on his way (eventually) to the McDavid line. I don’t think Rattie plays with Leon a lot, Draisaitl will need a more consistent player without the puck. Yamamoto and Aberg are candidates here.
  • No. 3LW: Drake Caggiula has the inside track early, but his track record has some holes and he may not be able to keep it. Jujhar Khaira played well with Ryan Strome, perhaps that duo gets back together. Pontus Aberg brings some things, he might displace Caggiula as the season wears along. Tyler Benson will eventually be in the conversation, but it’s unlikely to happen this fall.
  • No. 5C: Ryan Malone is the only obvious candidate, making this a possible waiver option. The appeal of having centers play on the wing (Nuge, Khaira) is more room to wheel.
  • No. 6D: Matt Benning or Kris Russell will have the job entering camp, with Evan Bouchard pushing. I think Andrej Sekera may get some rest, allowing Russell to move over to his natural side. If Bouchard earns the NHL job, a trade will eventually occur.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, TSN1260, a mixture of fun and sadness. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Stan Mikita passed yesterday, we’ll chat about the legendary Chicago Blackhawks star and how much he impacted the game.
  • Shane Malloy, XMRadio/TSN Radio. Shane’s in Edmonton for the Hlinka-Gretzky tournament, we’ll chat about the event, the players who caught his eye, and a little about the Oilers’ prospect base.
  • Derek Taylor, TSN. We’ll chat with Derek about the CFL week to come, and what looks to be a fabulous back to back battle between the Eskimos and Stampeders beginning Labor Day weekend.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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russ99

OriginalPouzar: Fair enough, however there is also room for Puljujarvi (and Yamamoto) to score more than they did in the past and I don’t think there is any doubt they both have higher offensive potential than Rieder and we count them as likely top 6 options in the future.

They may not be ready but I think they should be given the shot to succeed – they are “top 6 players” whereas Rieder is a “middle 6 players”.

I would suggest we insert the players in to the lineup at positions where they are most likely to succeed.

In my opinion both were rushed to the NHL before their time so to expect NHL improvements at this point without further development time seems like wishful thinking.

One or both (less likely) may step up, but it’s nice to have NHL options in case they don’t.

The whole top six/middle six doesn’t matter if there are players who can do well up or down in the lineup.

Andy Dufresne

pts2pndr: I agree that what you say is valid. I observed McLellan with his family and he isquality individual!I have beendisappointedin his response to certain media questions! I am of the beliief that once trust is damaged it is hard to establish the trust required to move forward. To get the player to believe in you, you have to show the player you believe in him! If you have the players belief/trust in you they will follow you through hell with gass filled britches!Leadership 101 possibly a lost art/value!

I respect your opinon. IMO TMac showed a level of composure and contraint that I have rarely seen in the face of such frustrating circumstances. Top draw professional in that respect…in my opinion.

Andy Dufresne

Lowetide: I don’t think McLellan is deliberately trying to ruin the kid,

???

Andy Dufresne

Woogie63:
The Oilers would be settling on Rattie and Rieder playing top 6 minutes.

Given the roster is basically done, I would get my head around:

RNH-McDavid-Yamamoto

Today Yamamoto is an upgrade on Rattie.This line will have speed and skill I could see +35 goal seasons from each player.

Lucic- Draisaitl-Puljujarvi

If you want JP to break out he needs a skilled center, just like Leon and Nail and Taylor and Tkachuk in Calgary…this is a hugely skilled procession line, imagine the cycle against Quinn Hughes.I could see 20-30-30 goals from this line.

Caggiula-Strome-Rieder

10-15-20 goals

Khaira-Brodziak-Kassian

8-8-8

Besides cap space……The main reason the Oilers are hiring the Ratties, Reiders, and Brodziaks of the world, is that they are place holders……for the JP’s, Yamamottos, Khaira’s and Bensons who are all positioned to take over this year……

Andy Dufresne

OriginalPouzar:
Pronman was in Kamloops for the Summer Showcase and watched video of the Czech/Finland and gave his view on the teams and certain players:

Ostap Safin, LW, Edmonton: Safin is an intriguing player due to his athletic tools. He’s 6-foot-5 and skates like he’s 5-foot-11. There was one play during the exhibitions where he came back hard on defense, making up a few feet on his check, delivered a hit, got the puck back and rushed it the other way for a clean entry. With Safin, I think his size/speed combo gets him to the league; my question is whether he has enough skill/offensive IQ to make a dent scoring-wise in the NHL. I think it’s possible, but his offensive flashes are quite inconsistent in terms of those attributes.

He also had Ryan McLeod projected on to Team Canada’s roster which is nice to see as he’s a bubble guy.

Of course Bouchard was listed as he’s a lock. No Rodrigue though (although he only listed two goalies – I think they take three, don’t they?).

As an aside, he did NOT have Phil Kemp in the US starting top 6.

Thank you for these prospect updates. A strength of yours. Really appreciate them.

Andy Dufresne

Lowetide: Oh no. I am assuming he DOESN’T get time on that first line, at least not at first.

I can gaurantee that he will get time on the first line…….when he earns it…….or the good old fashion way….when someone above him gets injured…..lets hope he’s got what it takes to take advantage of opportunity…..some do…..some dont.

Andy Dufresne

VOR: I see hockey as an ocean filled with currents, tides, the occasional tsunami and billions and billions of living things, all interacting. Think of the living things as on ice events and you have hockey.

Now imagine trying to use reductive tools to explain the ocean.

Ive reduced it down to NaCl and H2O. Kind of like Plus/Minus in hockey.

Helps me to see it, enjoy it, as simply beautiful…..like hockey.

Andy Dufresne

Georgexs:
“I’ve always seen this as ‘replacing Jordan Eberle’ but with the acquisition of Tobias Rieder perhaps we’re looking at a more complete player.”

Which one of these is Eberle, which one is Rieder … and which one is Nail Yakupov?

Player 1

588 GP
0.75 Pts/GP
2.12 P/60
50.0 CF%
+4.2 Rel CF%
50.3 GF%
+6.6 Rel GF%

Player 2

350 GP
0.39 Pts/GP
1.43 P/60
46.8 CF%
-0.9 Rel CF%
42.3 GF%
-3.4 Rel GF%

Player 3

312 GP
0.38 Pts/GP
1.22 P/60
47.6 CF%
0.6 Rel CF%
42.6 GF%
-2.3 Rel GF%

Thank you for your work. Good conversation piece in the middle of August.

The one thing that would make it more meaningful for me would be the dollars.

Its a Cap League. Cap space is as important/valuable as physcial assets.

What does Reider cost as compared to Eberle? Which one is better value in a cap world? Based on points per dollar and range of skills?

Its obvious that Eberle is the better player and the better value….but by how much given the dollars.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Fair enough, however there is also room for Puljujarvi (and Yamamoto) to score more than they did in the past and I don’t think there is any doubt they both have higher offensive potential than Rieder and we count them as likely top 6 options in the future.

They may not be ready but I think they should be given the shot to succeed – they are “top 6 players” whereas Rieder is a “middle 6 players”.

I would suggest we insert the players in to the lineup at positions where they are most likely to succeed.

100% agree they could/should score more than they have. Also agreed that one or both may be able to handle 1RW/2RW this season. Hopefully sooner than later.

But if the question is who’s the best RW for Connor or Drai today, IMO the answer is Rieder. Hopefully that’s not the case for long, and obviously the Oilers will be better for it if/when that day comes.

OriginalPouzar

jp: Whether or not Rieder is a “top 6” winger, the fact is he’s easily one of the best 4 wingers available at this time.

The career highs in goals for current Oilers wingers are (RNH as winger, Drai as C for this):
30, 24, 16, 14, 13, 12, 11, 5, 4, 0

There’s Rieder’s 16 in 3rd place.

Hopefully others step up and push Rieder to his ideal spot on the 3rd line, but as it is there aren’t enough actual NHLers to fill out the top 6. Rieder very well may prove to be the best available.

All that said I also think there’s room for him to score more than he has thus far.

Fair enough, however there is also room for Puljujarvi (and Yamamoto) to score more than they did in the past and I don’t think there is any doubt they both have higher offensive potential than Rieder and we count them as likely top 6 options in the future.

They may not be ready but I think they should be given the shot to succeed – they are “top 6 players” whereas Rieder is a “middle 6 players”.

I would suggest we insert the players in to the lineup at positions where they are most likely to succeed.

jp

Genjutsu:
I’m really not sure where all the top 6 love for Tobias Rieder comes from. He’s never scored 20 goals. in fact only once has he broke the 15 goal plateau, he had 16; Also Toby has never had 40 points and has spend time with substantial offensive centers.

bottom 6 and a ton PK work is where I see him fitting best.

He just doesn’t have enough gun to ride shotgun with Connor or Leon.

Whether or not Rieder is a “top 6” winger, the fact is he’s easily one of the best 4 wingers available at this time.

The career highs in goals for current Oilers wingers are (RNH as winger, Drai as C for this):
30, 24, 16, 14, 13, 12, 11, 5, 4, 0

There’s Rieder’s 16 in 3rd place.

Hopefully others step up and push Rieder to his ideal spot on the 3rd line, but as it is there aren’t enough actual NHLers to fill out the top 6. Rieder very well may prove to be the best available.

All that said I also think there’s room for him to score more than he has thus far.

VOR

VOR:
rickithebear,

I take exception to your statement number 8.

I don’t posit structured theories here.

My work is largely descriptive.

If you are reading me elsewhere you know I use a very large array of tools in my modelling.

If you have first hand experience working with me, and given the several points our paths might have crossed it isn’t impossible you’d know I am given to seeing all sides of nearly any argument and being a very creative problem solver who will use any tool that might help.

I see hockey as an ocean filled with currents, tides, the occasional tsunami and billions and billions of living things, all interacting. Think of the living things as on ice events and you have hockey.

Now imagine trying to use reductive tools to explain the ocean.

VOR

rickithebear,

I take exception to your statement number 8.

I don’t posit structured theories here.

My work is largely descriptive.

If you are reading me elsewhere you know I use a very large array of tools in my modelling.

If you have first hand experience working with me, and given the several points our paths might have crossed it isn’t impossible you’d know I am given to seeing all sides of nearly any argument and being a very creative problem solver who will use any tool that might help.

Pescador

Lowetide: Veteran coaches usually prefer veteran players and Leon’s No. 2 line is an important one. Eventually the top two RW’s on the team will be JP and KY (lord willin’ and the crick don’t rise) but for now he’s a solid bet.

As he has scored mid-teens before, and if he plays with Leon, 20 is possible.

If we see Top 6 production out of Reider, it may hinge on how Lucic performs.
If Milan is stumbling bumbling again then the second line will have an anchor instead of another engine.
Problem is the roster doesn’t have a suitable replacement for 2LW,
Unless Rattie can perform (GULP), does coach McL have the moxy to try;
Reider Leon JP

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Rieder made the NHL and stayed after about 40 games in the AHL.Rattie hasn’t got out of the AHL in 5 years.Who is the NHL winger?

Nobody is saying Rieder is going to push the river in the top six, but he is probably a better winger right now than everyone except Nugent-Hopkins.And he can play both sides of the puck.And PK.He can play with skill.

Is Connor Sheary a top six player?

Yamamoto is a rookie.Puljujarvi has struggled under this coach.Both have the potential to displace Rieder out of #1RW and #2RW,..but then Rieder becomes #2LW if that happens.

McDavid has been saying he would like some stability on his wings.So one should probably start with the guys who have actually played in the league.

If McDavid wants some stability on his lines then I don’t see why Rieder would be a guy to put with him as we know that he is more suited to the middle 6/3rd line than the first line.

If we are looking for stability with McDavid then Puljujarvi (or Yamamoto) is the guy as he’s got the pedigree to get an opportunity and grab it for the next decade, Rieder doesn’t.

russ99

godot10: Rieder made the NHL and stayed after about 40 games in the AHL.Rattie hasn’t got out of the AHL in 5 years.Who is the NHL winger?

Nobody is saying Rieder is going to push the river in the top six, but he is probably a better winger right now than everyone except Nugent-Hopkins.And he can play both sides of the puck.And PK.He can play with skill.

Is Connor Sheary a top six player?

Yamamoto is a rookie.Puljujarvi has struggled under this coach.Both have the potential to displace Rieder out of #1RW and #2RW,..but then Rieder becomes #2LW if that happens.

McDavid has been saying he would like some stability on his wings.So one should probably start with the guys who have actually played in the league.

With the uncertainty at RW, it’s very possible Rieder ends up at 2RW.

OriginalPouzar

Genjutsu:
I’m really not sure where all the top 6 love for Tobias Rieder comes from. He’s never scored 20 goals. in fact only once has he broke the 15 goal plateau, he had 16; Also Toby has never had 40 points and has spend time with substantial offensive centers.

bottom 6 and a ton PK work is where I see him fitting best.

He just doesn’t have enough gun to ride shotgun with Connor or Leon.

Agreed – I think Rieder can be spotted in to the top 6 but should be generally slotted on the third line and I think he will excel in a middle 6/3rd line role.

Projections of him as a top 6 forward are providing unreasonable expectations for him in my opinion. Yes, he’ll be in the top 180 scorers among forwards so, technically top 6, however, I don’t think he’s a 50 plus point guy which is what most want to see on the 2nd line I would think.

godot10

Genjutsu:
I’m really not sure where all the top 6 love for Tobias Rieder comes from. He’s never scored 20 goals. in fact only once has he broke the 15 goal plateau, he had 16; Also Toby has never had 40 points and has spend time with substantial offensive centers.

bottom 6 and a ton PK work is where I see him fitting best.

He just doesn’t have enough gun to ride shotgun with Connor or Leon.

Rieder made the NHL and stayed after about 40 games in the AHL. Rattie hasn’t got out of the AHL in 5 years. Who is the NHL winger?

Nobody is saying Rieder is going to push the river in the top six, but he is probably a better winger right now than everyone except Nugent-Hopkins. And he can play both sides of the puck. And PK. He can play with skill.

Is Connor Sheary a top six player?

Yamamoto is a rookie. Puljujarvi has struggled under this coach. Both have the potential to displace Rieder out of #1RW and #2RW,..but then Rieder becomes #2LW if that happens.

McDavid has been saying he would like some stability on his wings. So one should probably start with the guys who have actually played in the league.

Genjutsu

I’m really not sure where all the top 6 love for Tobias Rieder comes from. He’s never scored 20 goals. in fact only once has he broke the 15 goal plateau, he had 16; Also Toby has never had 40 points and has spend time with substantial offensive centers.

bottom 6 and a ton PK work is where I see him fitting best.

He just doesn’t have enough gun to ride shotgun with Connor or Leon.

rickithebear

VOR: I thought it was largely luck when I first started to study the phenomena. But when you interview the scouts you come to realize they are describing a unique experience they share in common. The language, the descriptors they use are similar to those of people describing mystic and ecstatic experiences. And for that matter extremely similar to jocks describing peak athletic experiences.

For example, “It was like time slowed down”, “Everything was happening in slow motion.” “It was like a really old film, I saw frame by frame how he set the goal up,” “There was a spot light shining on him, following him around the ice.”

When your teammates can be trusted to have high repeatable system play.
You mentally gather thier Pavlov driven actions, mechanism, that is Pavlov driven recall/recognition.
Intuition?
You can call it that!
You have seen the action so many times things slow down.
Or
you see the path in advance and the play follows it slowly.

You see a 5 player defensive structure and know thier will be 7 direction changes including reverse of direction. That you know it’s requires you to run wide to opposite side of pitch from center to the 22.
Resulting in a pass and a ……

Minds can think at that medium demand level.

I just talked to a Big hockey fan at jersey city.
Who trying to take dungeon and dragons to a more free form.
Like the origional D&D set.

Taking all the generational standards that bind play to game theory aproach which is bound by the archaic linear approach to analysis rather than free form change. It has the same restrictive bias of uni.

In the discussion it lead to the best description of real Emperical approach.

My math is
1. Boolean driven when looking at mechanism of play.

2. First order Aproach

3. Multi varible logic: My success map is really a complex 3d matrices driven by the same collection of axis team, comp, ZS. That results in a node to node map with truth tables at all nodes.
The truth Table can be binary which continues two linear paths.

4. Axiomatic method. The truth tables can be multi variable redirected paths.
that relocate to a complete diffrent path node in a bi directional route.

Back to more complex mechanical path (more action) or forward To simpler path ( less actions)
Follow a parallel path to one of the binary paths but ends up with a completely different set of results.

5. Rejection of path/ nodes
Paths one of the parallel paths variance in result is minimal relative to scale of measure HD prevention 500% to 100%. The parrallel path has variances of 2 – 10% at each node. The node count increases the scaled affect reduces.
Nodes: scale terms can be rejected by affect on genaeral measure of ( capital rejection) 500% affect

6. Probability logic: introduces a whole collection of theories, but establishes probability value to any defined path. Linear, loop, etc.
forcing, structure, vectors, these lead to relational database theory, database modeling.

7. Linear algebra, plane geometry, array geometry,

8. All the theories you speak of are binary in nature with bidirectional tests.
They rely on regression Modeling. Become invalid in axiom based ( real world) analytics.
Which by other theorems excludes algorithmic analysis/modelling.

9. Heyting algebra: My Boolean matricies anslysis Goal is to establish the boundaries of style of play.
Finding the worst and bes action/players.
The bound matrices marrries Boolean and Heyting with a whole serries of papers on human action analysis. A whole field of human biomechanical action analysis.
The basis of all my theories.

Linear mathematician stepping away from thier own rejections of axiom interpretive modeling.
I rejected studying math As an option in 2nd try at Univ. Realizing thier was no math relation influences.

10. Linear regression mathematics seeks a single answer to a question by eliminating outer affects
Interpreted affect ( rule changes) so your world can stay the same.
True dynamic game play looks at those changes as axioms or result variance.

It only builds on a belief in theorems I would discuss with theoretical math and real worl teams that my dad would work on. Had formed that opinion by age 12.

Thanks for the chance to read on my 48 hr awake period compliments of steroid and chemo.

I made the correct decision, @ uni.

rickithebear

v4ance:
https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1027338202431082507

Scared $: This quote from Hue cemented a reason why there’s an uneven playing field in the NFL. It’s not just the Browns. Short life expectancy HC’s are scared to try anything unfamiliar out of fear. Meanwhile, good teams w confident HC’s explore & exhaust all edges to win.

*****

I wonder if this applies to McLellan as well?He’s a veteran coach who’s gotten where he is by doing things in a “traditional” way.It may not be the optimal way for this team and this group of players but as long as he’s an “average” NHL coach doing things the way all the old school guys do it, everyone will point to roster construction as the main issue instead of his tactics.

i.e. The mindset of: “I’m doing things that 90% of the other coaches in the NHL would do it and if it doesn’t work out, those other coaches couldn’t get anything more out of this team in Orange…”

You have to identify systems.
Baseline performance.
Def triangle is like red zone (ppg)
Reduce Penetration leads to low TD/RZ like def triangle GA/CA; best measures.
Equalized pocession: Def ppg yeild/gm; like Open shot density/CA

Belichek and me!

36/51 GA Was abandoning HD def triangle.
The 3 WHL scouts I constantly talked too now agree with the philosophy Off dmen are not dmen they are Rovers,
Thier org are known as progressive and have been told that shift repeatability is a marker in identifying the undrafted and lower round picks.
High picks ceiling repeatability
Lower picks repatativevbaseline performance.
I can now use thier names in any Media presentation.

Modern multi sport athletes understand mistake free system play. ( baseline performance)

VOR

Glovjuice:
He can spot hockey IQ – also a heathy dose of luck.

I thought it was largely luck when I first started to study the phenomena. But when you interview the scouts you come to realize they are describing a unique experience they share in common. The language, the descriptors they use are similar to those of people describing mystic and ecstatic experiences. And for that matter extremely similar to jocks describing peak athletic experiences.

For example, “It was like time slowed down”, “Everything was happening in slow motion.” “It was like a really old film, I saw frame by frame how he set the goal up,” “There was a spot light shining on him, following him around the ice.”

rickithebear

Georgexs:
I had a look at the rookies thing you posted yesterday. I was initially just going to code the weird rule but I realized that I didn’t have data for any other professional league. So I queried nhl.com with a rookie filter. It worked for the most part. For players who didn’t yet meet the eligibility rule, however, it included any of their seasons as rookie seasons. Bah!

So I focused just on rookie seasons where the player played more than 25 games. Based on the data, this means I was looking at the better rookies, the ones teams played more than a token number of games.

– about 20% of rookies and 27% of non-rookies meet the 1.9 EV/60 line in the sand

– the median EV/60 is 1.44 for both rookies and non-rookies

– the correlation between EV/60 in the rookie season and EV/60 in subsequent seasons is 0.42

– so trying to predict future EV/60 performance using just a player’s rookie EV/60 performance is better than nothing but not that great

I’ll build a model that takes in more data available in the rookie season (draft position, games played, etc.) and see how well you can predict a forward’s career based on his numbers leading up to and including his rookie season. I’ll let you know how it goes.

Here are some notables who missed the 1.90 rookie cutoff:

Player, Rookie EV/60

Kopitar, 1.81
Datsyuk, 1.79
Perry, 1.77
Gaborik, 1.70
Nash, 1.70
Ehlers, 1.63
Neal, 1.62
Marchessault, 1.59
Bergeron, 1.57
D. Sedin, 1.54
Tavares, 1.54
Kuznetsov, 1.51
Parise, 1.46
Segun, 1.42
Barkov, 1.40
Staal, 1.36
Kucherov, 1.35
H. Sedin, 1.34
Krejci, 1.29
Pacioretty, 1.27
Hornqvist, 1.23
W. Karlsson, 1.23
Eriksson, 1.21
Granlund, 1.17
Semin, 1.15
Sharp, 1.12
Drai, 1.05
Cammalleri, 0.56
J.T. Miller, 0.39

So, yeah, lots of uncertainty…

And, OP, JF Jacques was one of 4 players who played more than 25 games in their rookie season and managed to produce 0 EV/60. The one who had the longest career was Cam Janssen who went on to play 289 games. He produced 0.66 EV/60 the rest of the way.

Non age based peer measure is taking a standard created by writers who are trained to write to grade 3 level.

Age peers January cutoff.
Nothing else.
Desjardins curv evstates the daily reduction from sept 16 is:

Draft -1 (16) 100 to 75% = 25%; 25/365 = .0685% per day
100 – (days past sept16 x .0685)

Draft (17) 75 to 50% = 25%; 25/365 = .0685% per day
75 – (days past sept16 x .0685)

Draft + 1 (18) 50 to 40% = 10%; 10/365 = .0274% per day

Draft +2 (19) 40% to 35% = 5%; 5/365 = .0137% per day

Daily reduction
Age peers: I use 50% of 82gm +1
Try to use like GAA seasons
Start with quick ref ppg
Then seperate into unit play.
Even, Pp, PK
Seperate forwards into
goal scorer g and P
Set up A, A1, P

07-08 to 16-17

18 year old rookie puljujarvi
Should not be measured against a
19yr old rookie Tkachuk .17 gpg.63 PPG, 18 fwds
24 yr old rookie Panarin 17 Fwds

20 yr old Dra .26 gpg .71 ppg 25 fwds
21 yr old Drai .37 gpg .93 ppg 11 fwds
22 yr old Drai .32 gpg .89 ppg 19 fwds
3 yrs combined .31 gpg .83 ppg 15 fwds

I gets rid of the school girl wolf pack (turn on a diffrent beta weekly) hyperbole rampant in MSM.

v4ance

https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1027338202431082507

? Scared $: This quote from Hue cemented a reason why there’s an uneven playing field in the NFL. It’s not just the Browns. Short life expectancy HC’s are scared to try anything unfamiliar out of fear. Meanwhile, good teams w confident HC’s explore & exhaust all edges to win.

*****

I wonder if this applies to McLellan as well? He’s a veteran coach who’s gotten where he is by doing things in a “traditional” way. It may not be the optimal way for this team and this group of players but as long as he’s an “average” NHL coach doing things the way all the old school guys do it, everyone will point to roster construction as the main issue instead of his tactics.

i.e. The mindset of: “I’m doing things that 90% of the other coaches in the NHL would do it and if it doesn’t work out, those other coaches couldn’t get anything more out of this team in Orange…”

VOR

This link leads to a far ranging interview with the Psychologist Richard Nisbett.

He starts off railing against linear regressions, though it becomes clear he is suggesting the ecological fallacy is alive and well.

Then he wanders off and starts talking about truly fascinating stuff.

By the end he is just spit balling, but it is fun and thought provoking to read.

Nisbett is best known for showing how little we know about our own motivations and how consistently we misjudge other people’s motivations.

https://www.edge.org/conversation/richard_nisbett-the-crusade-against-multiple-regression-analysis

Georgexs

Wilde:
Georgexs,

Hah, I knew you had this kicking around in your head because you’ve mentioned you didn’t see it with Rieder a couple times. I was wondering howand when you were going to formulate it but wouldn’t have guessed Nail Yakupov. Well done.

I have a problem with special teams on-ice event rates. I also have a problem with every player who has ever PKed being a ‘good PKer’, though.

Really liked today’s post. I watched the second GA involving Bear and I initially thought, man, Klef should’ve done better before Drai should’ve done better. But you watch it on loop and you see how many things are going on all at once, it’s dizzying. It made me appreciate the way Cammalleri just went to where he needed to be and made the play (twice) in the later clip. Veteran sense, I guess.

I think your work is cool and important. Numbers don’t tell you a whole lot about defense. With goals, you know who scored, who touched the puck before he scored, and who touched the puck before that, as well as who was on the ice. So you have a record of the actors and the events leading up to the important event. The record of defensive play lacks the details. All you know is who’s on the ice. So there’s a lot more guessing involved if you limit yourself to numbers.

Glovjuice

Woogie63:
I find Louie to be beige, I can’t think of anything he has said…

The After Hours show, with Scott Oake who I had done a lot of background homework, and paints an interesting story is contrasted with big Louie with a few questions scribbled on the back of an envelope.Consistently highlights the huge leap from athlete to real world.

What is Ray Ferraro doing Saturday night?

After Hours is Scott’s thing – wasn’t Louie’s place to offer other than what he did.

VOR
Glovjuice

He can spot hockey IQ – also a heathy dose of luck.

VOR:
To understand just how incredible the reaction of a scout when they see “the one” can be let me take you back to 1982. It is a meaningless game in the OJPHL in Markham, Ontario.

Paul Allen has been sent to scout some poor kid whose name is lost in the mists of time.

On the same team Paul Allen spots a kid who makes the hair on the back of his neck stand up. The kid is small. The kid is glacially slow. But there is something about him.

Paul Allen does his due diligence. He finds the kid is a lazy punk with a terrible attitude. Apparently the young man is a hard partier. He has dropped out of high school and is pumping gas for living.

But Paul Allen could see the future. In that famous phone call to his boss Mike Addesa he said, “this is the one. He’ll take us to an NCAA championship, rip up college hockey and be a great pro.”

Explain how an assistant college coach looking at a hungover 19 year old problem child who went undrafted by the NHL because he was way too slow could know he was seeing a superstar in the making?

But Paul Allen convinced Mike Addesa to give a high school drop out with impossibly slow boots a hockey scholarship to RPI.

It turned out all Adam Oates needed was one true believer. That was Paul Allen.

But I will say it again. How did Paul Allen know?

Georgexs

Georgexs,

Using data from 2000-01 to 2017-18 for this.

Georgexs

I had a look at the rookies thing you posted yesterday. I was initially just going to code the weird rule but I realized that I didn’t have data for any other professional league. So I queried nhl.com with a rookie filter. It worked for the most part. For players who didn’t yet meet the eligibility rule, however, it included any of their seasons as rookie seasons. Bah!

So I focused just on rookie seasons where the player played more than 25 games. Based on the data, this means I was looking at the better rookies, the ones teams played more than a token number of games.

– about 20% of rookies and 27% of non-rookies meet the 1.9 EV/60 line in the sand

– the median EV/60 is 1.44 for both rookies and non-rookies

– the correlation between EV/60 in the rookie season and EV/60 in subsequent seasons is 0.42

– so trying to predict future EV/60 performance using just a player’s rookie EV/60 performance is better than nothing but not that great

I’ll build a model that takes in more data available in the rookie season (draft position, games played, etc.) and see how well you can predict a forward’s career based on his numbers leading up to and including his rookie season. I’ll let you know how it goes.

Here are some notables who missed the 1.90 rookie cutoff:

Player, Rookie EV/60

Kopitar, 1.81
Datsyuk, 1.79
Perry, 1.77
Gaborik, 1.70
Nash, 1.70
Ehlers, 1.63
Neal, 1.62
Marchessault, 1.59
Bergeron, 1.57
D. Sedin, 1.54
Tavares, 1.54
Kuznetsov, 1.51
Parise, 1.46
Segun, 1.42
Barkov, 1.40
Staal, 1.36
Kucherov, 1.35
H. Sedin, 1.34
Krejci, 1.29
Pacioretty, 1.27
Hornqvist, 1.23
W. Karlsson, 1.23
Eriksson, 1.21
Granlund, 1.17
Semin, 1.15
Sharp, 1.12
Drai, 1.05
Cammalleri, 0.56
J.T. Miller, 0.39

So, yeah, lots of uncertainty…

And, OP, JF Jacques was one of 4 players who played more than 25 games in their rookie season and managed to produce 0 EV/60. The one who had the longest career was Cam Janssen who went on to play 289 games. He produced 0.66 EV/60 the rest of the way.

pts2pndr

Lowetide: Puljujarvi wasn’t ripping it up offensively early (9, 2-0-2 in November) but caught fire in December (13, 6-3-9). After that, he didn’t do much. If you are McLellan, January is vital and you have the Finn pushing. But if you look at his Jan TOI (below) he reaches his peak (14:27) for the season but delivers just 1-3-4 in 10 games.

February is down to 12:28 (14, 1-1-2) and he doesn’t get back to previous TOI or scoring levels.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/puljuje01/splits/2018

What does all of it mean? I think the coach still sees him as a work in progress. I don’t think McLellan is deliberately trying to ruin the kid, and at this point his survival might depend on him unlocking Puljujarvi.

Young players are prone to ups and downs! Sending JP down while giving time to Yamamoto was to my knowledge of team building counter productive! You have to build a belief system. These young men are first just that, the hockey aspect is secondary! To build a professional you need to treat the individual as a professional! He did not get to where he is at by luck! These young people are not easily replaceable! They need to be coached! My question is has the management of the Oilers done everything in their perview to assure the asset will reach their potential!

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar:
Here is the deal from Matheson:

“Louie DeBrusk will apparently be handling colour commentary duties with play-by-play man Kevin Quinn on Edmonton Oilers Sportsnet TV broadcasts this winter with Drew Remenda doing between-periods commentary for their Rogers Place home games. When DeBrusk works a weekend HNIC game, Remenda will be providing colour alongside Quinn.”.

Thank You Sortsnet!

Wilde

Georgexs,

Hah, I knew you had this kicking around in your head because you’ve mentioned you didn’t see it with Rieder a couple times. I was wondering how and when you were going to formulate it but wouldn’t have guessed Nail Yakupov. Well done.

I have a problem with special teams on-ice event rates. I also have a problem with every player who has ever PKed being a ‘good PKer’, though.

Jaxon

VOR: It turned out all Adam Oates needed was one true believer. That was Paul Allen.

Whaaaaaaaaaaa?!?! Awesome story. Might explain part of why he’s good at coaching skills to players one-on-one. He’s possibly able to get through to people who aren’t seeing the big picture and who need someone to believe in them. Thanks for this.

pts2pndr

hunter1909: he was on a diet.

To be a leader it is paramount to keep your head when others do not! You can teach the priciples but the belief, not so much! It is a leap of faith that sounds simple but depends on the stakes!l

pts2pndr

Lowetide: Puljujarvi wasn’t ripping it up offensively early (9, 2-0-2 in November) but caught fire in December (13, 6-3-9). After that, he didn’t do much. If you are McLellan, January is vital and you have the Finn pushing. But if you look at his Jan TOI (below) he reaches his peak (14:27) for the season but delivers just 1-3-4 in 10 games.

February is down to 12:28 (14, 1-1-2) and he doesn’t get back to previous TOI or scoring levels.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/puljuje01/splits/2018

What does all of it mean? I think the coach still sees him as a work in progress. I don’t think McLellan is deliberately trying to ruin the kid, and at this point his survival might depend on him unlocking Puljujarvi.

I agree that what you say is valid. I observed McLellan with his family and he is quality individual! I have been disappointed in his response to certain media questions! I am of the beliief that once trust is damaged it is hard to establish the trust required to move forward. To get the player to believe in you, you have to show the player you believe in him! If you have the players belief/trust in you they will follow you through hell with gass filled britches! Leadership 101 possibly a lost art/value!

flyfish1168

Oilman99: Nobody will be more motivated than Rattie this fall. He has finally had a taste of success,and realizes this is his last big chance.

He should be motivated. You know the Oilers have 2 players they are grooming for that position. Rattie is just a placeholder and will be part of a deadline deal.

flyfish1168

Lowetide: Oh no. I am assuming he DOESN’T get time on that first line, at least not at first.

Or 1st PP unit

hunter1909

VOR: But I will say it again. How did Paul Allen know?

When you start Microsoft, you should know something.

frjohnk

VOR:
To understand just how incredible the reaction of a scout when they see “the one” can be let me take you back to 1982. It is a meaningless game in the OJPHL in Markham, Ontario.

Paul Allen has been sent to scout some poor kid whose name is lost in the mists of time.

On the same team Paul Allen spots a kid who makes the hair on the back of his neck stand up. The kid is small. The kid is glacially slow. But there is something about him.

Paul Allen does his due diligence. He finds the kid is a lazy punk with a terrible attitude. Apparently the young man is a hard partier. He has dropped out of high school and is pumping gas for living.

But Paul Allen could see the future. In that famous phone call to his boss Mike Addesa he said, “this is the one. He’ll take us to an NCAA championship, rip up college hockey and be a great pro.”

Explain how an assistant college coach looking at a hungover 19 year old problem child who went undrafted by the NHL because he was way too slow could know he was seeing a superstar in the making?

But Paul Allen convinced Mike Addesa to give a high school drop out with impossibly slow boots a hockey scholarship to RPI.

It turned out all Adam Oates needed was one true believer. That was Paul Allen.

But I will say it again. How did Paul Allen know?

You are the Paul Harvey of this blog.

Love these comments.

hunter1909

pts2pndr: Sorry LT, what I am saying is that there does not seem to be any rational deployment byMcLellan!
Certain players get added ice time and others are benched for no apparent reason. McLellan could be seen encouraging players on the bench when they were successflu. Last year he was aloof and visibly angry! I have seen him with his family and by what I observed he is a good man! What changed?

he was on a diet.

VOR

To understand just how incredible the reaction of a scout when they see “the one” can be let me take you back to 1982. It is a meaningless game in the OJPHL in Markham, Ontario.

Paul Allen has been sent to scout some poor kid whose name is lost in the mists of time.

On the same team Paul Allen spots a kid who makes the hair on the back of his neck stand up. The kid is small. The kid is glacially slow. But there is something about him.

Paul Allen does his due diligence. He finds the kid is a lazy punk with a terrible attitude. Apparently the young man is a hard partier. He has dropped out of high school and is pumping gas for living.

But Paul Allen could see the future. In that famous phone call to his boss Mike Addesa he said, “this is the one. He’ll take us to an NCAA championship, rip up college hockey and be a great pro.”

Explain how an assistant college coach looking at a hungover 19 year old problem child who went undrafted by the NHL because he was way too slow could know he was seeing a superstar in the making?

But Paul Allen convinced Mike Addesa to give a high school drop out with impossibly slow boots a hockey scholarship to RPI.

It turned out all Adam Oates needed was one true believer. That was Paul Allen.

But I will say it again. How did Paul Allen know?

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: Puljujarvi wasn’t ripping it up offensively early (9, 2-0-2 in November) but caught fire in December (13, 6-3-9). After that, he didn’t do much. If you are McLellan, January is vital and you have the Finn pushing. But if you look at his Jan TOI (below) he reaches his peak (14:27) for the season but delivers just 1-3-4 in 10 games.

February is down to 12:28 (14, 1-1-2) and he doesn’t get back to previous TOI or scoring levels.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/puljuje01/splits/2018

What does all of it mean? I think the coach still sees him as a work in progress. I don’t think McLellan is deliberately trying to ruin the kid, and at this point his survival might depend on him unlocking Puljujarvi.

With respect to Jesse and his opportunities, lets not forget that his most common center at 5 on 5 last year was McDavid followed by Strome (around 230-250 minutes with each) and then just over 100 with each of Leon and Nuge.

Obviously too much moving around but its not like he didn’t get his time with skilled centers.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: Last year he was aloof and visibly angry! I have seen him with his family and by what I observed he is a good man! What changed?

losing….

hunter1909

Connor McFreaking David guarantees future glory.

Problem is, Lowe+MacT are Klingons.

hunter1909

Wtf is it with not sticking JP on a 4th line?

He gets his 12 mins a night and we can see how he does with it.

VOR

My point about Matt Cullen was simply this. While I couldn’t see it a good scout with experience could look at Matt Cullen at 19 and say that a) he had a great tool kit for a role player (speed, skill, and intensity) and b) understood hockey well enough to know being a hell of a role player had real value in the NHL. What Paul (the scout) couldn’t tell looking at the young St. Cloud player was that Matt Cullen would go on providing that value for longer than any role player in NHL history.

It made me curious what it was his eyes saw and his brain processed. I remain obsessed with that question. It is not that other scouts didn’t see the same thing. They did. It is that it wasn’t obvious in the stats or his on ice impact at 19. But scout after scout looked at 19 year old Matt Cullen and saw a very, very good NHL player.