Every Breaking Waive

There are few things in life I enjoy more than a waiver claim. The old Intra-League draft was one, the annual entry draft is another, and there are a few private things a gentleman doesn’t talk about in public. Either way, waiver claims are right up there in terms of appeal, so you can imagine how much my heart soared when the Oilers general manager specifically brought up the subject yesterday. Music!

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

PETER CHIARELLI’S 2018 SUMMER LIST

  1. Veteran scoring right winger. I’ve always seen this as ‘replacing Jordan Eberle’ but with the acquisition of Tobias Rieder perhaps we’re looking at a more complete player. It’s also true that in-house options like Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto might make things moot.
  2. Two-way left winger. The signing of Kyle Brodziak, a center, addresses this need and gives the coach a veteran he can count on. This could also easily be Rieder, in fact he’s a perfect fit for this area. If we started plotting the roster and began with the third line, a Rieder-Nuge pairing might be fabulous.https://www.nhl.com/news/connor-mcdavid-anticipates-improved-edmonton-oilers/c-299703398?tid=277548856
  3. Puck mover. I didn’t think this should be a priority, and the addition of Evan Bouchard appears to have calmed the waters. I don’t believe Bouchard is going to play the entire season, so this might be a waiver option.
  4. No. 7 defender. My suspicion is that Kevin Gravel wins this job over Keegan Lowe and others.
  5. Backup goalie. The Oilers spent some money on Mikko Koskinen, an expensive, unproven option but his resume is solid.

It was a quiet summer, but Connor McDavid is saying all the right things. I’ve said this many times before, but it’s the minutes when McDavid is at rest that are at issue. Rieder was a helluva find.

WAIVERS LIST

  • Anaheim: Chase De Leo. The Ducks traded for him at the end of June. He scored 69, 12-23-35 in the AHL and I think he could easily replace Drake Caggiula (they are similar players) at a far lower cap hit.
  • Arizona: Michael Bunting. I liked his speed and skill on draft day 2014, not much has changed. His AHL totals (67, 23-20-43) showed marked improvement and he has to be close to making his NHL debut.
  • Florida: Frank Vatrano. The Panthers shuffle players with extreme regularity, Vatrano has some offensive touch and doesn’t cost a lot.
  • Tampa Bay: Adam Erne. He’s been a slow developing player in a machine gun system, but I like his size/speed/low center of gravity. He’s the kind of player who can dig out pucks for the skill forwards.
  • Toronto: Josh Leivo. Toronto has a bunch of kids who are pushing by him (Johnsson for sure) but Leivo remains a worthy bet. I’ve been mentioning him so long, he’ll probably end up in Calgary scoring 20 goals a season with Monahan.
  • Winnipeg: Marko Dano. Has many nice things, including speed and skill. Bloom is off the rose now but maybe all he needs is a change of scenery. Has played for three NHL teams, that’s a lot for someone 24 who isn’t completely established.

TRAINING CAMP BATTLES

  • Peter Chiarelli: We’re going to kind of take it slowly because we also have some guys that may compete and beat out guys – younger players – that might be in that category.” Source

I found this quote (I didn’t hear the interview but the article linked to is solid) to be interesting because there doesn’t seem to be a lot of battles. I count 29 men for 23 jobs, but the players most likely to be sent out are Al Montoya, Keegan Lowe, Ethan Bear, Brad Malone and Cooper Marody. So it’s really 24 men for 23 jobs. Plus the waiver wire.

  • No. 1 RW: Leon Draisaitl remains on the roster, so don’t completely discount the idea of a McDavid-Draisaitl combination. Ty Rattie, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Drake Caggiula and Pontus Aberg are all possibilities, plus the waiver wire. My belief is the Oilers have Yamamoto ahead of Puljujarvi, but the Finn may spike this fall and he has the biggest hammer of all (impact potential).
  • No. 2 RW: Tobias Rieder may have the inside track, at least early. This is (in my opinion) the entry point for Puljujarvi into the top 6F, on his way (eventually) to the McDavid line. I don’t think Rattie plays with Leon a lot, Draisaitl will need a more consistent player without the puck. Yamamoto and Aberg are candidates here.
  • No. 3LW: Drake Caggiula has the inside track early, but his track record has some holes and he may not be able to keep it. Jujhar Khaira played well with Ryan Strome, perhaps that duo gets back together. Pontus Aberg brings some things, he might displace Caggiula as the season wears along. Tyler Benson will eventually be in the conversation, but it’s unlikely to happen this fall.
  • No. 5C: Ryan Malone is the only obvious candidate, making this a possible waiver option. The appeal of having centers play on the wing (Nuge, Khaira) is more room to wheel.
  • No. 6D: Matt Benning or Kris Russell will have the job entering camp, with Evan Bouchard pushing. I think Andrej Sekera may get some rest, allowing Russell to move over to his natural side. If Bouchard earns the NHL job, a trade will eventually occur.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, TSN1260, a mixture of fun and sadness. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Stan Mikita passed yesterday, we’ll chat about the legendary Chicago Blackhawks star and how much he impacted the game.
  • Shane Malloy, XMRadio/TSN Radio. Shane’s in Edmonton for the Hlinka-Gretzky tournament, we’ll chat about the event, the players who caught his eye, and a little about the Oilers’ prospect base.
  • Derek Taylor, TSN. We’ll chat with Derek about the CFL week to come, and what looks to be a fabulous back to back battle between the Eskimos and Stampeders beginning Labor Day weekend.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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116 Responses to "Every Breaking Waive"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Some quotes from McDavid:

    https://www.nhl.com/news/connor-mcdavid-…=277548856

    TORONTO — Connor McDavid said he supports management’s decision to keep the core of the Edmonton Oilers roster intact for this season.

    “I think the message was that if there was a move to be made, they’d make it,” the Oilers captain said Tuesday. “But obviously nothing too promising came up. That’s good. You want to keep the team together.”

    ——————-
    Edmonton went 13-10-2 from that point to finish the season, a modest improvement that McDavid said he and his teammates can build on.

    “There’s just got to be a point in time where you get sick of losing and you just own it,” McDavid said. “Guys came together. Guys were getting sick of the way things were going and wanted to get back to playing hockey the way it should be, get back to doing what you have to do to win.

    “It was a good learning experience, obviously something we don’t want to go through again.”

    ——————————

    “I’m very excited to bring those guys on,” McDavid said. “Rieder, obviously with his speed and offensive play, he’ll fit in with the centers we have. And Brodziak’s been around so long and does things the right way.

    “We’re just looking to get some chemistry. It’s funny we talk about it because it’s been three years now … Just going to training camp and try to stay with each other.”

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    From the last quote above, it seems like McDavid would like some steady linemates. To me, that would mean that Rattie should not start the season as 1RW as I simply don’t think he’s a long term (or even a medium term) option at 1RW.

    He is a poor skater and not very good outside of the offensive zone (and was a huge draft on McDavid in the minutes he played with him without Nuge on the ice).

    Here is hoping that Jesse (or Kailer) can win that job on merit in camp.

    Strome is another solid option but I don’t see it happening.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    I absolutely see Rieder as that “two-way winger”.

    Personally, I would love to find a way to keep him on the 3rd line for the most part as I think he will/would excel in that role. With that said, it seems likely that he starts the season on the 2nd line unless both Jesse and Kailer win top 6 jobs on merit – I will bank on one, not both.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Chiarelli expressly mentioned that drafting Bouchard “tempered” their search for a d-man but it did not stop the search. He expressly mentioned that they are always trying to improve the defence and that there is some risk with the current group.

    With that said, I’m not so sure he will be looking to add a waiver wire type pick up. I think we are set with the incumbent six. Gravel can fight with Stanton and Lowe for the 7th spot. Bouchard is a wild-card and I think, if he sticks, it doesn’t change anything else with the defence and we start the season with 8D.

    Bear is a wild card but I think we can all (or most of us can) agree that his game needs more work prior to another NHL stint. He could transition the puck at the NHL level (maybe the best on the team) but no part of his game away from the puck was NHL level and he get caved at evens.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    I would really like to see Aberg get a true shot in the top 6 with Leon.

    He’s got the speed, skill and smarts – inconsistency has been his issue (along with stupid things like missing practice).

    At $650K, he could provide a huge value contract and bridge a bit of a gap until Puljujarvi proves ready to graduate from 3RW to the top 6 (which may happen in October).

  6. Lowetide says:

    OP: I don’t think Rattie is a poor skater but it isn’t a strength either. Ideally Jesse Puljujarvi scores on a 2-on-1 with McDavid early in the preseason and the chem takes them into a successful regular season.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    In my opinion, assuming Lucic starts the season as 2LW and Nuge as 1LW, Jujhar should have the inside track on the 3LW spot over Caggulia.

    Caggulia is a pure energy guy suited for the 4th line – at least at this stage of his career.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    OP: I don’t think Rattie is a poor skater but it isn’t a strength either. Ideally Jesse Puljujarvi scores on a 2-on-1 with McDavid early in the preseason and the chem takes them into a successful regular season.

    I agree with the hope.

    In the article you linked (sorry for my posts on it – I posted them before I read), McDavid seems to imply he would like some steadier linemates and does anyone really see Rattie there for longer than a short stretch.

    Hopefully Jesse wins that job at camp.

    I wonder if Rattie can stay in the lineup (or even on the roster) if he’s not at 1RW?

    If Bouchard stays and they carry 8D, Rattie may be the one to go.

  9. Wilde says:

    Finished off a long post from a game with a ton going on in it; March 1st at home vs Nasvhille:

    https://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2018/08/march-1-vs-nsh-leons-line-in.html

    Randomly can’t fix the font at some parts but I’ve given up because I’m running on all of zero sleep

    – The Black Dog Pat Mikita piece is a quality read

    – On Safin I feel it’s usually just optimal for X team to bring up Y CHL import to the AHL early, but for the Oilers and Bakersfield and the rookie coach I don’t know if you do it

    – This is like an opposite contingency-plan but there should probably be a plan for if Rattie legit fills out that top line for over half the season effectively and how to take advantage of that in deployment for the bottom three lines; I honestly don’t know how I’d configure that yet

  10. PJfanofJP says:

    Long time reader, first time poster.

    Forgive me if this has been discussed previously, but I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on the Sea Dogs import draftees. Both supposedly elite forwards – Maxim Cajkovic from Slovakia (1 OV in the import draft) and Filip Prikryl from the Czech Republic. Cajkovic is a goal scoring winger and Prikryl is a playmaking centre.

    St. John appears to be going younger; do you think St. John might try to encourage Safin to go Bakersfield? Or do you think they’ll welcome him back. If he is back, how beneficial will it be for him to play with Cajkovic?

    The other wrinkle is that the Sea Dogs desperately need a good centre, having moved Veleno last season. If I understand the rules correctly, ifthey choose to keep Safin, they cannot import Prikryl (the centre).

    I’ve posted the Sea Dogs Import Draft Press release below. Please skip over it if this is old news or doesn’t interest you.

    The Saint John Sea Dogs selected two highly skilled forwards in Thursday’s CHL Import Draft.

    With the first overall pick, the Sea Dogs selected Slovakian forward Maxim Cajkovic from the Malmo Redhawks junior program in Sweden. The 17-year-old forward recorded 14 goals and three assists in 10 games with the under-18 team and added 10 goals and 11 helpers in 20 matches with the under-20 squad.

    Cajkovic was dominant with Slovakia at the World Under-18 Championships, finishing second in tournament scoring with four goals and seven assists in five games, trailing only American forward Jack Hughes by one point.

    “He has a great toolbox, he’s a smart player, and he will grow with our young talented nucleus,” said Sea Dogs President and General Manager Trevor Georgie. “He is excited to be a Sea Dog. He can’t wait to get here and will be very motivated in his NHL Draft year. He is very proud to wear our jersey and wants to be part of what is happening here in Saint John.”

    Georgie and head coach Josh Dixon plan on meeting with Cajkovic this weekend at the Newport Sports Development Camp in Toronto.

    “He has told us that he is excited to put the blue, black, and white on for the first time this weekend,” said Georgie, adding that Cajkovic is a goal scorer that will compliment Saint John’s existing forward group well. “We are going to spend some time to get to know him and remind him that he is just 17 and there is going to be an adjustment period moving to Canada, not just on the ice, but off the ice as well. We will be patient with him like all our other young players and will raise him the Sea Dogs way.”

    Cajkovic becomes the second player to be drafted by the Sea Dogs with the first overall pick in the CHL Import Draft. In 2009, Saint John used the top pick to select Russian forward Stanislav Galiev.

    Saint John opted to use its second round pick in this year’s Import Draft as well, selecting Czech forward Filip Prikryl 61st overall. The 17-year-old spent last season with HC Plzen junior program where he recorded seven goals and 21 assists in 14 games with the under-18 team and another four goals and 21 assists in 26 games with the under-20 squad.

    “We are very pleased where we got him and love his skill set,” said Georgie. “He is a young player with lots of high end tools.”

    Both Cajkovic and Prikryl are eligible for the 2019 NHL Draft. Selecting two imports gives the Sea Dogs some roster security and options moving forward if returning import Ostap Safin stays in the professional ranks.

  11. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree with the hope.

    In the article you linked (sorry for my posts on it – I posted them before I read), McDavid seems to imply he would like some steadier linemates and does anyone really see Rattie there for longer than a short stretch.

    Hopefully Jesse wins that job at camp.

    I wonder if Rattie can stay in the lineup (or even on the roster) if he’s not at 1RW?

    If Bouchard stays and they carry 8D, Rattie may be the one to go.

    Where Rattie was at last season, and given his physical attributes, he has to be a significant finisher to stay in the NHL IMO. He’ll be in Europe if he can’t stick I’d imagine. There aren’t any better NHL opportunities than he has now.

  12. Jordan says:

    What I want to start the year:

    Chiarelli signing Jesse to a 3-8 year extension at between 2 and 3.5M/season

    Then run:

    RNH – CMD – JPJ
    Lucic – Drai – Reider
    Khaira – Strome – Kassian
    Cags – Brodz – Aberg

    Let Jesse develop some chem with Connor, but be sure his salary is locked in for a few years – we don’t want him getting the McDavid bump as he finishes his entry level deal.

  13. Bag of Pucks says:

    I agree LT. I’m not seeing ‘battles’ throughout the lineup to the extent that Chiarelli’s comments would indicate.

    There are certainly some good roster spot challenges shaping up, but much of it contingent (as always) on youth taking a big step forward. I think it would behoove Chiarelli to bring in a couple hungry vets on PTOs to amp up the competition in training camp and the preseason. The worry here is that you have a HC shown to favour vets and so Pete may worry that if it’s close btw a PTO and a prospect, TMac may lean towards the older player?

    In terms of this lineup returning to form, I think one thing we absolutely have to see is a return to the club having functional toughness and playing with an edge. Both Lucic and Kassian got too comfortable least season imo. Combine that with the loss of Maroon and this team did not have the same level of aggression amongst the F ranks. I do like the pushback on the D side however. Lots of sand throughout those pairings now.

  14. digger50 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I agree LT. I’m not seeing ‘battles’ throughout the lineup to the extent that Chiarelli’s comments would indicate.

    There are certainly some good roster spot challenges shaping up, but much of it contingent (as always) on youth taking a big step forward. I think it would behoove Chiarelli to bring in a couple hungry vets on PTOs to amp up the competition in training camp and the preseason. The worry here is that you have a HC shown to favour vets and so Pete may worry that if it’s close btw a PTO and a prospect, TMac may lean towards the older player?

    In terms of this lineup returning to form, I think one thing we absolutely have to see is a return to the club having functional toughness and playing with an edge. Both Lucic and Kassian got too comfortable least season imo. Combine that with the loss of Maroon and this team did not have the same level of aggression amongst the F ranks. I do like the pushback on the D side however. Lots of sand throughout those pairings now.

    I agree, they absolutely need that degree of toughness and pushback to return. Last year however I feel our guys did not get comfortable, they were muzzled by the head coach. He was worried about penalties and I guess that was a valid concern given the penalty kill.

    However, suppressing that physical part of the Oilers game appeared to send those specific players into a bit of a spiral and thier contributions were lessened. Inadvertently, this coaching tactic to help win games in the short term had the opposite effect in the long term.

  15. Jordan says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I’m hopeful the battles are going to be for which players line up where in the lineup.

    1RW, 2LW 2RW all of the 3rd and 4th lines…. who is linning up where is written in pencil.

    I would like the battles to be internal for icetime, linemates, and special teams time.

    I see that as being the best recipe for success this coming season.

  16. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    – I actually see lots of “battles”

    – if we assume that when this is a cup team pool and Kailer are playing with skill: Rattie (a much better natural goal scorer and pedigree than maroon pre-nhl) had success with mcd. His defensive liabilities are over-blown. As long as he’s playing with Conner and rnh he should be no worse than maroon last year with mcd and “blocks” pool and Kailer

    – Reider also has a track record and creates barriers

    – in goal you now have koski and Montoya as backup battles as well as the younger ones who “battle”

    – gravel makes is harder for Bouchard or bear to just step in.

    – Brodziak also provides cover and may be able to move up and down.

    – Jar- he’s got to battle to move now, caggs doesn’t have free reign with Aberg

    – anyway players play. Need some of reider rattie Aberg lucic rnh strome pool Kailer to be effective with skill. Doesn’t seem that unlikely some will and the rest just details.

  17. Professor Q says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Bouchard is 2.5 months older than Dobson. Is that really a big deal?

    McDavid is 9 months older than Matthews, the ol’ gramps.

  18. Georgexs says:

    “I’ve always seen this as ‘replacing Jordan Eberle’ but with the acquisition of Tobias Rieder perhaps we’re looking at a more complete player.”

    Which one of these is Eberle, which one is Rieder … and which one is Nail Yakupov?

    Player 1

    588 GP
    0.75 Pts/GP
    2.12 P/60
    50.0 CF%
    +4.2 Rel CF%
    50.3 GF%
    +6.6 Rel GF%

    Player 2

    350 GP
    0.39 Pts/GP
    1.43 P/60
    46.8 CF%
    -0.9 Rel CF%
    42.3 GF%
    -3.4 Rel GF%

    Player 3

    312 GP
    0.38 Pts/GP
    1.22 P/60
    47.6 CF%
    0.6 Rel CF%
    42.6 GF%
    -2.3 Rel GF%

  19. frjohnk says:

    I dont see much for battles to make the team.

    -6D from last year, is pretty much set. Its the 7th D, which looks like Gravol has the inside track. They might keep Bouchard for a few games but he will be sent down.

    -Talbot and Koskinen are set. Unless Koskinen lays a turd in preseason, which would then be interesting.

    -11 Oilers forwards that finished the season will all be back. Reider and Brodziak will join them. The last spot is between KY, Malone and company. Maybe Rattie does not make the team.

    As for roster spot battles in regards to placement on lines and pairings, it will be revolving all year due to injuries and if players are hot/cold. The only constant is that McDavid as long as he is healthy, will be the number 1 C. After that, nothing is for sure.

  20. Georgexs says:

    While we’re at it, which one of these is Brodziak and which one is Letestu (since 07-08)?

    Player 1

    558 GP
    0.38 Pts/GP
    1.26 P/60
    48.5 CF%
    -1.6 Rel CF%
    44.8 GF%
    -6.7 Rel GF%

    Player 2

    831 GP
    0.34 Pts/GP
    1.42 P/60
    46.0 CF%
    -3.4 Rel CF%
    46.3 GF%
    -4.0 Rel GF%

  21. Georgexs says:

    (This might not be fair because I don’t know the background or the available options. It’s inspired from the conversation yesterday.)

    Leading in to the 15-16 season, PIT signed UFA Matt Cullen to a 1 year $800K contract. Here were his numbers in the period leading up to the signing, from 07-08 to 14-15:

    541 GP
    0.56 Pts/GP
    1.75 P/60
    49.3 CF%
    +0.1 Rel CF%
    51.6 GF%
    +4.6 Rel GF%

    It looks like Cullen played 3rd to 4th line minutes for PIT in a Cup-winning year. He was then re-signed by PIT to another 1-year contract, this time for $1M. He played 3rd line minutes in another Cup-winning season in 16-17.

    I think this is how it’s supposed to work when you’re trying to win. It draws an interesting contrast to the players we targeted this summer. Again, I’m not sure who was available or what their preferences were. I’m not saying PC sucks. Just drawing the distinction between depth players that contribute to winning and depth players that contribute to losing, and the prices that some teams are able to set for both categories.

  22. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    From the last quote above, it seems like McDavid would like some steady linemates. To me, that would mean that Rattie should not start the season as 1RW as I simply don’t think he’s a long term (or even a medium term) option at 1RW.

    He is a poor skater and not very good outside of the offensive zone (and was a huge draft on McDavid in the minutes he played with him without Nuge on the ice).

    Here is hoping that Jesse (or Kailer) can win that job on merit in camp.

    Strome is another solid option but I don’t see it happening.

    McDavid’s wingers should be Nugent-Hopkins and Rieder, two proven two-way NHL’ers, Draisaitl has his contract. He has to bear the burden of winger roulette. Hopefully, Jesse will take the 2RW spot and run with it, solving the winger for Draisaitl problem.

    Ideally, Jesse and Kailer step up.

    Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, Rieder
    Khaira, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi
    Lucic, Strome, Yamamoto
    Aberg, Brodziak, Kassian
    Caggiula Rattie.

  23. stephen sheps says:

    Georgexs,

    Ebs
    Yak
    Toby

    Georgexs,

    Testube
    Brodz

    But the real question here is what exactly are you trying to demonstrate by showing these career numbers?

    Eberle played with the best of the best on a bad team for a number of years, with a bonafide river-pusher alongside him. And then spent this year on yet another bad team with a not-yet-established-but-likely bonafide river-pusher alongside him. His career numbers should look like that.

    Yak – rarely played with skill but scored when he did (with Hall, McDavid and Duchene), but when playing in 3rd and 4th line situations with dregs got his head kicked in. Those numbers are a reflection of his linemates and situation throughout his career.

    Rieder – played most of his career in Arizona, where good numbers go to die. And despite this his RelCF% is still in the black. Perhaps there is a decent player here after all?

    If you’re protecting a lead or killing a penalty, do you send Eberle over the boards? Yak? Nope in both cases. Rieder? Maybe. He’s played in that situation quite a bit in his career. By a ‘more complete player’ it could be that he has a wider range of skills, and if given the chance to play on a skill line may make up for some (not all) of Eberle’s missing offence.

    Not sure what you’re getting at with the Letestu vs. Brodziak thing though.

    EDIT: I see now that you’ve posted the Cullen thing.

    Ok, but what team was Cullen playing with leading up to his time with the Penguins? Well to start there was his time with the Wild and the Predators, both teams known for particularly strong defence, which will make your individual numbers playing 2nd/3rd line minutes look a lot better. I get that you’re trying to suggest that the GM should aim higher (and I don’t disagree – the GM should always try to aim higher with player acquisitions), but it seems a bit disingenuous to cherry-pick certain stats to suggest that the players the Oilers GM did go out and get are poor while ignoring some other situational stats (4v5 and other defensive metrics specifically). Brodziak performs his role reasonably well, Rieder is at least a versatile player who can play in all situations and we don’t yet know the ceiling on his scoring potential.

  24. Georgexs says:

    Georgexs:
    (This might not be fair because I don’t know the background or the available options. It’s inspired from the conversation yesterday.)

    Leading in to the 15-16 season, PIT signed UFA Matt Cullen to a 1 year $800K contract. Here were his numbers in the period leading up to the signing, from 07-08 to 14-15:

    541 GP
    0.56 Pts/GP
    1.75 P/60
    49.3 CF%
    +0.1 Rel CF%
    51.6 GF%
    +4.6 Rel GF%

    It looks like Cullen played 3rd to 4th line minutes for PIT in a Cup-winning year. He was then re-signed by PIT to another 1-year contract, this time for $1M. He played 3rd line minutes in another Cup-winning season in 16-17.

    I think this is how it’s supposed to work when you’re trying to win. It draws an interesting contrast to the players we targeted this summer. Again, I’m not sure who was available or what their preferences were. I’m not saying PC sucks. Just drawing the distinction between depth players that contribute to winning and depth players that contribute to losing, and the prices that some teams are able to set for both categories.

    Actually, PC did sign exactly that type of contract for exactly that type of player last season: Jussi Jokinen. Jokinen went on to play with 4 teams last year. This stuff may be harder than it looks.

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    I just saw a tweet that Debrusk will be taking over from Remanda doing the color this year – apparently this info was buried somewhere in the Journal today.

    I haven’t had a chance to confirm this (and the tweet was random) but that would be great. While I do believe the Remanda knows the game very well, I just don’t like his presentation and am a big fan of Louie.

  26. Oilman99 says:

    Lowetide:
    OP: I don’t think Rattie is a poor skater but it isn’t a strength either. Ideally Jesse Puljujarvi scores on a 2-on-1 with McDavid early in the preseason and the chem takes them into a successful regular season.

    Nobody will be more motivated than Rattie this fall. He has finally had a taste of success,and realizes this is his last big chance.

  27. Bag of Pucks says:

    digger50: I agree, they absolutely need that degree of toughness and pushback to return. Last year however I feel our guys did not get comfortable, they were muzzled by the head coach. He was worried about penalties and I guess that was a valid concern given the penalty kill.

    However, suppressing that physical part of the Oilers game appeared to send those specific players into a bit of a spiral and thier contributions were lessened. Inadvertently, this coaching tactic to help win games in the short term had the opposite effect in the long term.

    Great point that the dismal PK likely affected their ability to play aggressively.

  28. Bag of Pucks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Bag of Pucks,

    – I actually see lots of “battles”

    – if we assume that when this is a cup team pool and Kailer are playing with skill: Rattie (a much better natural goal scorer and pedigree than maroon pre-nhl) had success with mcd. His defensive liabilities are over-blown. As long as he’s playing with Conner and rnh he should be no worse than maroon last year with mcd and “blocks” pool and Kailer

    – Reider also has a track record and creates barriers

    – in goal you now have koski and Montoya as backup battles as well as the younger ones who “battle”

    – gravel makes is harder for Bouchard or bear to just step in.

    – Brodziak also provides cover and may be able to move up and down.

    – Jar- he’s got to battle to move now, caggs doesn’t have free reign with Aberg

    – anyway players play. Need some of reider rattie Aberg lucic rnh strome pool Kailer to be effective with skill. Doesn’t seem that unlikely some will and the rest just details.

    For sure, there will be battles up and down the depth chart to secure more icetime and spots higher up the roster, but LT’s making the point that it’s currently shaping up as 24 men for 23 jobs. And that’s what I’d like to see increased by adding a couple PTOs. More competition for jobs and not just icetime.

    This team underachieved in a big way last season. There should be more competition in camp and in the preseason. Players like Aberg, Rattie, Yamamoto, Bear, etc. will arrive hungry to make the team. That’s a good thing. I’d like to see that same hunger with players like Caggiula, Kassian, Benning, and Russell as well. Competition kills complacency and that’s what this team needs to get a fast start out of the gates imo.

  29. Georgexs says:

    stephen sheps,

    “… but it seems a bit disingenuous to cherry-pick certain stats to suggest that the players the Oilers GM did go out and get are poor while ignoring some other situational stats (4v5 and other defensive metrics specifically).”

    You’re right. Please post “some other situational stats” so we can have something to talk about.

    Your interpretation of my “cherry-picked” stats is interesting but I’ll let you make a less “disingenuous” case before responding.

  30. godot10 says:

    Georgexs: Actually, PC did sign exactly that type of contract for exactly that type of player last season: Jussi Jokinen. Jokinen went on to play with 4 teams last year. This stuff may be harder than it looks.

    Cullen can skate. Jokinen can’t. Pro scouts failed to note the drop-off in Jokinen’s skating.

  31. godot10 says:

    Oilman99: Nobody will be more motivated than Rattie this fall. He has finally had a taste of success,and realizes this is his last big chance.

    Rattie is draft+7, and in all that time has not learned how to play a whit of defense or in his own zone. You are Charlie Brown. Ty Rattie is Lucy with the football.

  32. SwedishPoster says:

    godot10: Cullen can skate.Jokinen can’t. Pro scouts failed to note the drop-off in Jokinen’s skating.

    Impossible to miss Jokinens drop off in skating. They must have either thought it was injury related and health would help or that he could contribute anyway. They were wrong on both accounts.

  33. Ryan says:

    Georgexs:
    While we’re at it, which one of these is Brodziak and which one is Letestu (since 07-08)?

    Player 1

    558 GP
    0.38 Pts/GP
    1.26 P/60
    48.5 CF%
    -1.6 Rel CF%
    44.8 GF%
    -6.7 Rel GF%

    Player 2

    831 GP
    0.34 Pts/GP
    1.42 P/60
    46.0 CF%
    -3.4 Rel CF%
    46.3 GF%
    -4.0 Rel GF%

    Obviously Brodziak is the 831 gp. He’s been pretty healthy and in the league as a regular during that time. Letestu, I’d have to honestly look up.

    I get your point that there doesn’t appear to be much to choose one over the other based upon how you present the data.

    Granted, I think that the career numbers obscure the career arc of a player which would be important info in this instance.

    Wouldn’t most bottom six players have similar numbers assuming they didn’t play a lot in the top six or maybe on a really good team? I think Brodziak’s mostly been a forth liner whom I presume has a career of poor zone starts.

  34. Georgexs says:

    godot10: Cullen can skate.Jokinen can’t. Pro scouts failed to note the drop-off in Jokinen’s skating.

    Yeah, when I look at it, Jokinen scored 0.41 Pts/GP with 17:25 of ice time in his last season with FLA.

    Cullen scored 0.40 in 13:01 of ice time in his last season with NSH before joining PIT.

    Jokinen fell off before coming here. Cullen didn’t before going to PIT.

  35. PigeonCamera says:

    Dunno if this has been mentioned yet, but according to the twitters, Drew Remenda and Louie DeBrusk are trading roles next year! I guess that Remenda will do colour on weekends when DeBrusk is unavailable, but otherwise, we get Louie!

    Manna from heaven. Between that, and David Tennant being announced for the Edmonton Expo, EVERYTHING’s coming up Milhouse!

  36. dustrock says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I just saw a tweet that Debrusk will be taking over from Remanda doing the color this year – apparently this info was buried somewhere in the Journal today.

    I haven’t had a chance to confirm this (and the tweet was random) but that would be great.While I do believe the Remanda knows the game very well, I just don’t like his presentation and am a big fan of Louie.

    Thank the sweet Gord.

    Thanks OP.

  37. stephen sheps says:

    Georgexs,

    Georges, no need to get defensive (pardon the pun). I was genuinely curious about what you were trying to prove with your thought experiment and was hoping you’d dig a little deeper, but that’s ok. I’ll put in the work. I needed a break from transcribing interviews anyway

    Letestu 15-18 PK game states (courtesy corsica & hockey reference)

    TOI: 508, GF 8, GA 65, CF 97. CA 889, CF% 9.8, CA/60 102.8, PDO 99.4

    Rieder same period

    TOI: 437, GF 3, GA 51, CF 115, CA 730, CF% 13.74, CA/60 95.56, PDO 90

    Brodziak:

    TOI: 409, GF 7, GA 47, CF 82, CA 590, CF% 12.2 CA/60 88.3, PDO 97.5

    Teams PK (courtesy Corsica)

    Edmonton

    TOI: 1207.75, GF 20, GA 147, CF% 11.52 GA/60 7.3, CA/60 101.84 PDO 97.01

    Arizona

    TOI: 1277.32, GF 12, GA 165, CF% 11.6 GA/60 7.75, CA/60 102.36, PDO 91.65

    STL

    TOI: 1264.83, GF 9, GA 122, CF% 11.64 GA/60 5.79, CA/60 93.97, PDO 93.16

    I’ll happily let you draw your own conclusions, but when looking at the players relative to their own teams over the last few years, Rieder and Brodziak look pretty good as PK forwards, something the Oilers desperately need.

    Again, these players aren’t perfect solutions, but based on the original idea (‘a more complete player’) Rieder seems like he fits that bill, if your definition of ‘complete’ includes 2-way & shorthanded game situations.

    Brodziak looks like he was a good fit on a team that was already solid on the PK – especially since it looks like over his 3 years on that team, they took a few more penalties than the Oilers did during the same period and allowed fewer goals against. He’s not a world beater, but if I’m reading these numbers correctly (and I might not be), he’s a better PK forward than Letestu was over the same period both individually and relative to his team. And given the Oilers needs, that’s a good thing, right? Other than that, you’re right that not much separates the players. Letestu clearly also has the edge in PP time, seeing as Brodziak has barely played on the PP since he left the Wild, but as we saw last year, Letestu’s PP performance certainly fell back to earth.

  38. Richard S.S. says:

    Professor Q,

    Isn’t 2.5 monthsabout 35 games? It should be about who can play now and who must wait.
    Isn’t 9 months about 80+ games? It should be about who can play well and who is great.

  39. Washingtron says:

    Lowetide,

    I’m sure you’ve discussed it before LT, but was TMac as much of a line blender in SJ as he has been here? Is that just his jam?

  40. Nix says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I just saw a tweet that Debrusk will be taking over from Remanda doing the color this year – apparently this info was buried somewhere in the Journal today.

    I haven’t had a chance to confirm this (and the tweet was random) but that would be great.While I do believe the Remanda knows the game very well, I just don’t like his presentation and am a big fan of Louie.

    Yesssss

  41. Professor Q says:

    Washingtron:
    Lowetide,

    I’m sure you’ve discussed it before LT, but was TMac as much of a line blender in SJ as he has been here?Is that just his jam?

    He had a lot of Cs and swapped them to-and-fro between lines from time to time, like he does with Team Canada. Usually he stuck with pairs of 2 and swapped a W for certain situations (Pavelski or Couture coming up to 1st line).

    Thornton, Marleau, Setoguchi, Pavelski, Couture, Michalek, Grier, Heatley, Cheechoo way back when, etc. were all intermingled. Wilson did the same, though.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    Here is the deal from Matheson:

    “Louie DeBrusk will apparently be handling colour commentary duties with play-by-play man Kevin Quinn on Edmonton Oilers Sportsnet TV broadcasts this winter with Drew Remenda doing between-periods commentary for their Rogers Place home games. When DeBrusk works a weekend HNIC game, Remenda will be providing colour alongside Quinn.”.

  43. stephen sheps says:

    Georgexs,

    Not to pile it on, especially since I know I could have worded my post in a much better way, but by placing those 2 sets of players’ numbers out as you did, what was your end goal? Put another way, I know we use these numbers for a lot of different functions. Some of the time they’re descriptive, others they’re proxies for possession, others still they’re predictive of potential future success, but ultimately the numbers themselves tell us different bits of the stories about the players and the teams. When I asked you initially what you were trying to get at with your comparison, I was very curious what story behind the numbers you were working through. Given that you specifically addressed the idea of ‘a complete player’ and only used more general offence-based stats, it seemed somewhat off to me, which is precisely why I chose to dig into PK situational stats as a response.

    I hope you didn’t feel that I was attacking you personally; rather I was hoping to tease out a bit more about your thought process and the story you were trying to tell by setting up that comparison. I really like your posts, always have. And as I’m sure you know at this point, it’s very rare that a numbers post prompts me to chime in. Since I am actually doing research on analytics right now, I tend to not talk too much about it here, instead primarily commenting when the thread goes into music, pop-culture, food, or whisky based conversations. Something about the way you structured this was different…

  44. Woogie63 says:

    The Oilers would be settling on Rattie and Rieder playing top 6 minutes.

    Given the roster is basically done, I would get my head around:

    RNH-McDavid-Yamamoto

    Today Yamamoto is an upgrade on Rattie. This line will have speed and skill I could see +35 goal seasons from each player.

    Lucic- Draisaitl-Puljujarvi

    If you want JP to break out he needs a skilled center, just like Leon and Nail and Taylor and Tkachuk in Calgary…this is a hugely skilled procession line, imagine the cycle against Quinn Hughes. I could see 20-30-30 goals from this line.

    Caggiula-Strome-Rieder

    10-15-20 goals

    Khaira-Brodziak-Kassian

    8-8-8

  45. Georgexs says:

    Ryan: Obviously Brodziak is the 831 gp. He’s been pretty healthy and in the league as a regular during that time. Letestu, I’d have to honestly look up.

    I get your point that there doesn’t appear to be much to choose one over the other based upon how you present the data.

    Granted, I think that the career numbers obscure the career arc of a player which would be important info in this instance.

    Wouldn’t most bottom six players have similar numbers assuming they didn’t play a lot in the top six or maybe on a really good team? I think Brodziak’s mostly been a forth liner whom I presume has a career of poor zone starts.

    1. Yes, roughly the same players. As for career arc, Brodziak is 34, well into the declining years.

    Here’s the median Pts/GP for forwards with 10 or more GP compared to Brodziak’s Pts/GP over his career:

    Season, Median Pts/GP, Brodziak Pts/GP

    05-06, .41, 0
    06-07, .39, .17
    07-08, .40, .39
    08-09, .40, .34
    09-10, .39, .39
    10-11, .39, .46
    11-12, .34, .54
    12-13, .38, .25
    13-14, .36, .30
    14-15, .38, .27
    15-16, .36, .14
    16-17, .36, .22
    17-18, .39, .41

    Last season, he moved up in the lineup and played 13:28 per night in STL after playing 10:48 and 11:42 the prior two seasons.

    We had fourth line struggles last year. Maybe Brodziak will perform a little less bad than Letestu, if all things stay the same. But I think, based on his numbers, his expected performance should be in the neighborhood of Letestu.

  46. russ99 says:

    I was a huge fan of the annual preseason waiver draft. It served a purpose: It kept teams from collecting too many average level NHL players and if you were short an NHL body and/or had a preseason injury or two, there were players exposed that could help.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pronman was in Kamloops for the Summer Showcase and watched video of the Czech/Finland and gave his view on the teams and certain players:

    Ostap Safin, LW, Edmonton: Safin is an intriguing player due to his athletic tools. He’s 6-foot-5 and skates like he’s 5-foot-11. There was one play during the exhibitions where he came back hard on defense, making up a few feet on his check, delivered a hit, got the puck back and rushed it the other way for a clean entry. With Safin, I think his size/speed combo gets him to the league; my question is whether he has enough skill/offensive IQ to make a dent scoring-wise in the NHL. I think it’s possible, but his offensive flashes are quite inconsistent in terms of those attributes.

    He also had Ryan McLeod projected on to Team Canada’s roster which is nice to see as he’s a bubble guy.

    Of course Bouchard was listed as he’s a lock. No Rodrigue though (although he only listed two goalies – I think they take three, don’t they?).

    As an aside, he did NOT have Phil Kemp in the US starting top 6.

  48. OilClog says:

    Louie!

    All they need to do to pile on the misery of intermissions… is somehow involve Garrett.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    PJfanofJP,

    My understanding is that Filip Prikryl is likely going to play for HC Plzen in Czech leaving Safin and Cajkovic as the two imports.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Bag of Pucks,

    – I actually see lots of “battles”

    – if we assume that when this is a cup team pool and Kailer are playing with skill: Rattie (a much better natural goal scorer and pedigree than maroon pre-nhl) had success with mcd. His defensive liabilities are over-blown. As long as he’s playing with Conner and rnh he should be no worse than maroon last year with mcd and “blocks” pool and Kailer

    – Reider also has a track record and creates barriers

    – in goal you now have koski and Montoya as backup battles as well as the younger ones who “battle”

    – gravel makes is harder for Bouchard or bear to just step in.

    – Brodziak also provides cover and may be able to move up and down.

    – Jar- he’s got to battle to move now, caggs doesn’t have free reign with Aberg

    – anyway players play. Need some of reider rattie Aberg lucic rnh strome pool Kailer to be effective with skill. Doesn’t seem that unlikely some will and the rest just details.

    Yes, Rattie has a better pre-draft pedigree than Maroon but, given he was drafted 7 year ago, that means nothing any more in my opinion. Yes, Rattie is more offensively skilled than Maroon, however, Maroon, in his entire time as an Oiler was a much more polished player than Rattie. He was able to win battles and play responsibly all over the ice.

    Maroon was one of the few Oilers with positive metrics away from McDavid. Rattie is a poor player without the puck and outside the offensive zone. In 30 minutes with McDavid and without Nuge, they scored zero goals and gave up 5 and had possession metrics in and around 30% – I’m going to guess that wasn’t on McDavid.

    Even if Montoya outplays Koskinen at camp, and he might, I can’t imagine Koskinen not staying on the NHL roster. I don’t see a real battle there.

    I don’t think Gravel has any impact on Bouchard – I think the D is set with the incumbent 6 and Gravel as #7 – there is a potential battle between Gravel, Lowe and Stanton but I’d be surprised if Gravel wasn’t the guy. I believe that, if Bouchard breaks camp with the team, it means they carry 8D and only 13F so, it affects the 14th forward more than anyone.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: McDavid’s wingers should be Nugent-Hopkins and Rieder, two proven two-way NHL’ers,Draisaitl has his contract.He has to bear the burden of winger roulette.Hopefully, Jesse will take the 2RW spot and run with it, solving the winger for Draisaitl problem.

    Ideally, Jesse and Kailer step up.

    Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, Rieder
    Khaira, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi
    Lucic, Strome, Yamamoto
    Aberg, Brodziak, Kassian
    Caggiula Rattie.

    I value your opinion (not fact, opinion) on this but I don’t agree – I would much rather see Rieder on the 3rd line which I believe suits his game much better than 1RW.

    I’d even prefer Strome at 1RW – although I don’t see the coaches going that route.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Nobody will be more motivated than Rattie this fall. He has finally had a taste of success,and realizes this is his last big chance.

    Sure, although I don’t think motivation can make up for “not good enough”.

    I’m pulling for Rattie, it would be great if he could truly earn a roster spot. I have no doubt that he’d accumulate points while playing 1RW but he simply cannot be a drag on the line and the warts in his game that have kept him from being an NHL player remain.

  53. Georgexs says:

    stephen sheps,

    “… when looking at the players relative to their own teams over the last few years, Rieder and Brodziak look pretty good as PK forwards…”

    Let’s fill in a number you missed for the players so we can make the relative comparison:

    Player, PK GA60, Team PK GA60

    Letestu, 7.68, 7.30
    Rieder, 7.00, 7.75
    Brodziak, 6.89, 5.79

    Rieder, playing on a bad team, had better results than his team. Brodziak, playing on a good team, had worse. Together, I’d say they look like middle of the road PK forwards.

    Letestu was part of an all-time worst PK unit until the Oilers turned it around last season. In the two seasons prior, Letestu put up 6.76. That means he was also a middle of the road PK forward going into last season.

    That things got so out of control may have had to do with the coaching staff’s inability to construct an effective system with some brand new pieces. This year, it’s new coaching staff (assistants), new pieces (Rieder and Brodziak). We hope for the best.

    “… PK forwards, something the Oilers desperately need.”

    I think OP has said that the Oilers PK finished the season strong; they were near the top over some closing stretch. The problems got sorted. If the moves were solely to shore up that need, the need may not have been desperate.

    “Again, these players aren’t perfect solutions, but based on the original idea (‘a more complete player’) Rieder seems like he fits that bill, if your definition of ‘complete’ includes 2-way & shorthanded game situations.”

    Eberle and Rieder are two different categories of player. Just like Eberle and Strome are two different categories of player. Rieder isn’t even Strome. Rieder produces offense at below replacement level. The problem with his 2-way play is that one very important way is broken. Forwards who don’t produce offense play losing minutes.

    His minutes dropped last season on a bad ARI team. (17:19 to 15:17) Minutes changing like that for a young player is a signal that the team (ARI!!!) has started to form definite opinions. He was putting up negative Rel GF% numbers while playing second line minutes in 16-17. That’s not good. ARI demoted him and his relative results improved in 17-18.

    When Rieder played in LAK, the team gave him even less TOI: 12:50. His Rel GF% numbers were again negative; he was playing losing minutes on a winning team. He did get more minutes during the playoffs. But he ended up with 0 points just like a lot of the Kings players. I’m guessing LAK passed on bringing him back. This is all useful information that’s available to anyone.

    I chose those metrics because they are my starting points for evaluating forwards. Nobody would call Yak a complete hockey player (unless they’re trying to say he’s completed playing hockey in the NHL). By those numbers, Rieder looks like Yak. If by “more complete” player, you mean defensively responsible, here’s the two players’ GA60 over the 3 seasons in your sample:

    Season, Yak 5v5 GA60, Rieder 5v5 GA60

    15-16, 2.84, 2.83
    16-17, 2.34, 2.25
    17-18, 1.89, 2.47

    For Brodziak-Letestu, see prior.

  54. stephen sheps says:

    Georgexs,

    Thanks for filling in those gaps. All I needed.

    Rieder doesn’t look great at 5v5 by those numbers, but I still wonder if the player playing on a bad team have anything to do with those GA/60 numbers. I’d wager probably a little but not as much as I’d like. Yak we know is a defensive black hole. I still miss the kid though.

    Maybe Rieder’s not so ‘two-way’ after all. Bummer.

  55. Rebillled says:

    Sail on Remenda…a little further…

  56. Soup Fascist says:

    Georgexs,

    Maybe it just SEEMED like Rieder had an offensive dimension because he appeared to put up points every single time he played against the Oilers.

  57. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide:
    OP: I don’t think Rattie is a poor skater but it isn’t a strength either. Ideally Jesse Puljujarvi scores on a 2-on-1 with McDavid early in the preseason and the chem takes them into a successful regular season.

    You are assuming that JP gets time on the first line. IMO JP should be put on the first line until such time as there is someone ( not named Drai ) that proves they are better. Yamamoto is not the answer with Nuge and Conner! No corner man, no size and no net front presence! This is stupid with a capital S! Yamamoto with Drai and Rieder on the other hand makes sense balance wise!

  58. Georgexs says:

    stephen sheps:
    Georgexs,

    Not to pile it on, especially since I know I could have worded my post in a much better way, but by placing those 2 sets of players’ numbers out as you did, what was your end goal? Put another way, I know we use these numbers for a lot of different functions. Some of the time they’re descriptive, others they’re proxies for possession, others still they’re predictive of potential future success, but ultimately the numbers themselves tell us different bits of the stories about the players and the teams. When I asked you initially what you were trying to get at with your comparison, I was very curious what story behind the numbers you were working through. Given that you specifically addressed the idea of ‘a complete player’ and only used more general offence-based stats, it seemed somewhat off to me, which is precisely why I chose to dig into PK situational stats as a response.

    I hope you didn’t feel that I was attacking you personally; rather I was hoping to tease out a bit more about your thought process and the story you were trying to tell by setting up that comparison. I really like your posts, always have. And as I’m sure you know at this point, it’s very rare that a numbers post prompts me to chime in. Since I am actually doing research on analytics right now, I tend to not talk too much about it here, instead primarily commenting when the thread goes into music, pop-culture, food, or whisky based conversations. Something about the way you structured this was different…

    WG and I have a thing. One of us will put up numbers. The other guy will disagree and put up his numbers. And we go back and forth, arguing ideas by way of numbers.

    If I put up stats and someone else calls them cherry-picked or disingenuous, I’ll invite them to frame their own position with numbers. It helps draw a clear outline around the area of disagreement. It’s good for both sides. It keeps things impersonal. Where this sort of stuff belongs.

    What was I was trying to get at with my comparison? As I explained above, those metrics are my starting point for evaluating forwards. By those metrics, Yak and Rieder are comps. You know a player by the statistical company he keeps. Not everything about the player, of course, but you’re usually well out of the dark.

    Why are those metrics my starting point? Because, based on my work, they (along with TOI) contain the most information about who a forward is and who a forward is likely to be at different stages of his career. This is a longer story to tell and I try to tell it in pieces now and then.

    You talked earlier about Eberle’s opportunities compared to Yak’s burdens. You also cited Cullen’s context even though he’s had an unusually long career in all kinds of contexts, including, as VOR said, 3 Cups. I see this line of thinking (the results are on the context, not on the player) every now and then. It’s valid because it’s difficult to separate the player from the context using ad hoc stats. (And using heavier statistical machinery would probably just put people off; it’s a hockey blog after all.) But, if over time, I see the same sort of results in different contexts, I’m more comfortable attributing the results to the player (or to the opinion that the league has formed of the player).

    Sure, Rieder plays PK and Yak doesn’t. But Rieder, though quick, doesn’t have wizard-like PK stats; how could one PK forward have such an impact when, on the PK, forwards are almost always playing without the puck? For the rest of it, Rieder has Yak-like results. You say we don’t know his ceiling yet, but, at this point, we sort of do. He could surprise us. But it’s important to remember to be surprised.

  59. Woogie63 says:

    I find Louie to be beige, I can’t think of anything he has said…

    The After Hours show, with Scott Oake who I had done a lot of background homework, and paints an interesting story is contrasted with big Louie with a few questions scribbled on the back of an envelope. Consistently highlights the huge leap from athlete to real world.

    What is Ray Ferraro doing Saturday night?

  60. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure, although I don’t think motivation can make up for “not good enough”.

    I’m pulling for Rattie, it would be great if he could truly earn a roster spot.I have no doubt that he’d accumulate points while playing 1RW but he simply cannot be a drag on the line and the warts in his game that have kept him from being an NHL player remain.

    I’m hoping he does well, but man he has a lot to learn to be a solid player in one summer. It is different if Yama or JP have the struggles he does given age and experience. Usually TMac gives older more experienced players a shot first in more prominent positions, letting/making younger guys develop more rounded games. It will be interesting if Yama forces the issue. And especially if JP does as well.

  61. stephen sheps says:

    Georgexs,

    Thanks for the thoughtful, detailed and well articulated response. Your take makes a world of sense.

  62. Lowetide says:

    pts2pndr: You are assuming that JP gets time on the first line. IMO JP should be put on the first line until such time as there is someone( not named Drai ) that proves they are better. Yamamoto is not the answer with Nuge and Conner! No corner man, no size and no net front presence! This is stupid with a capital S!Yamamoto with Drai and Rieder on the other hand makes sense balance wise!

    Oh no. I am assuming he DOESN’T get time on that first line, at least not at first.

  63. VOR says:

    Ryan,

    Great link. Though if anything I think it disproves your theory. 400 meter runners are getting better at 31 and 32. Milan Lucic is thirty.

    400 meter runners, at least good ones, have high levels of Type IIa muscle fibres. These are the same fibres that drives top end skating speed versus IIb which drives the first step or two. From your link we’d conclude that while Milan Lucic who just turned thirty is approaching a precipice (31) in terms of losing Type IIb fibres he hasn’t reached it yet. And in terms of Type IIa fibres he is coming up on his prime.

    This year is the perfect time for Milan to make a huge leap forward.

    As for your contention that age determines muscle fibre composition the research (and it is voluminous) supports the exact opposite. We don’t use our most explosive fibres and we lose the connection to them. Elderly people who have trained for explosive power show we can recruit and train those fibres again. We know this because these sorts of training programs have produced huge quality of life gains.

    Not to mention absolute numbers that pretty clearly demonstrate that fast twitch fibres can be recruited and trained late into life.

    I would guess, given the women in the study you linked to experienced no fast twitch precipice nor did male 400 meter runners that the male 100 and 200 meter runners drop off because of selection bias.

    The important take away is that as we age, if we want to have a great middle and old age, we need to keep using all our slow twitch and fast twitch capacities and possibly building new capacities.

    Years ago I coached a mediocre sprinter named Peter. He never amounted to much and we lost touch. A few years ago I watched him perform at World Masters where he ran several age class world records. In his early sixties he was faster than in his twenties. There are literally hundreds of examples like Peter.

    The sad truth is by and large we are choosing to live a crippled up old age. It is never too late to start working out again.

  64. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: Oh no. I am assuming he DOESN’T get time on that first line, at least not at first.

    Sorry LT, what I am saying is that there does not seem to be any rational deployment by McLellan!
    Certain players get added ice time and others are benched for no apparent reason. McLellan could be seen encouraging players on the bench when they were successflu. Last year he was aloof and visibly angry! I have seen him with his family and by what I observed he is a good man! What changed?

  65. hunter1909 says:

    It’s the dead of August where I live. Dead, as in the hot summer has just passed us all by and from here on in it’s back to normal(sketchy) yet normal summertime weather. Yesterday was forced to stand by and spent the entire day dealing with builders which always tires me out.

    Then I got the idea to go out and buy some beer, which I did, and started drinking to ease the pain of life. I say pain of life in the Eastern sense of the word, in that life has that quality which eventually kills everyone, lol.

    Summer 2018 has been very good to hunter1909, in that have been able to take time off for a change to enjoy the weather.

    Then there’s the case of Evan Bouchard.

    Here is my take:

    Paul Coffey, the greatest non-Orr attacking defencemen ever should give outstanding personal coaching…even if it’s no more than an encouraging wink.

    Bouchard’s 6’2″ the classic perfect size for a defenceman.

    Runs the powerplay. What can you add to this? For this skill alone he’s nearly a lock for Europe, lol

    Can pass the puck out of his own end with near elite skill. It’s August, so forgive my ignorance, but I can’t name one Oiler defenceman that can do this.

    Hunter1909 likes french players!

    Bouchard = A shot
    Ethan Bear = B/B+ shot

    giant point slap shot … Gold Standard

    Extremely calm in front of the opposition goal(the sign of a superior player)

    6’2′ tall which is a perfect size classically for defencemen

    Runs the powerplay(oilers have no one with this skill)

    Can pass the puck from his own end with near elite skill

    Apologies to the mob(actually there’s no mob in August, more like the Roman Senate)

  66. VOR says:

    My point about Matt Cullen was simply this. While I couldn’t see it a good scout with experience could look at Matt Cullen at 19 and say that a) he had a great tool kit for a role player (speed, skill, and intensity) and b) understood hockey well enough to know being a hell of a role player had real value in the NHL. What Paul (the scout) couldn’t tell looking at the young St. Cloud player was that Matt Cullen would go on providing that value for longer than any role player in NHL history.

    It made me curious what it was his eyes saw and his brain processed. I remain obsessed with that question. It is not that other scouts didn’t see the same thing. They did. It is that it wasn’t obvious in the stats or his on ice impact at 19. But scout after scout looked at 19 year old Matt Cullen and saw a very, very good NHL player.

  67. Lowetide says:

    pts2pndr: Sorry LT, what I am saying is that there does not seem to be any rational deployment byMcLellan!
    Certain players get added ice time and others are benched for no apparent reason. McLellan could be seen encouraging players on the bench when they were successflu. Last year he was aloof and visibly angry! I have seen him with his family and by what I observed he is a good man! What changed?

    Puljujarvi wasn’t ripping it up offensively early (9, 2-0-2 in November) but caught fire in December (13, 6-3-9). After that, he didn’t do much. If you are McLellan, January is vital and you have the Finn pushing. But if you look at his Jan TOI (below) he reaches his peak (14:27) for the season but delivers just 1-3-4 in 10 games.

    February is down to 12:28 (14, 1-1-2) and he doesn’t get back to previous TOI or scoring levels.

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/puljuje01/splits/2018

    What does all of it mean? I think the coach still sees him as a work in progress. I don’t think McLellan is deliberately trying to ruin the kid, and at this point his survival might depend on him unlocking Puljujarvi.

  68. hunter1909 says:

    Wtf is it with not sticking JP on a 4th line?

    He gets his 12 mins a night and we can see how he does with it.

  69. hunter1909 says:

    Connor McFreaking David guarantees future glory.

    Problem is, Lowe+MacT are Klingons.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: Last year he was aloof and visibly angry! I have seen him with his family and by what I observed he is a good man! What changed?

    losing….

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Puljujarvi wasn’t ripping it up offensively early (9, 2-0-2 in November) but caught fire in December (13, 6-3-9). After that, he didn’t do much. If you are McLellan, January is vital and you have the Finn pushing. But if you look at his Jan TOI (below) he reaches his peak (14:27) for the season but delivers just 1-3-4 in 10 games.

    February is down to 12:28 (14, 1-1-2) and he doesn’t get back to previous TOI or scoring levels.

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/puljuje01/splits/2018

    What does all of it mean? I think the coach still sees him as a work in progress. I don’t think McLellan is deliberately trying to ruin the kid, and at this point his survival might depend on him unlocking Puljujarvi.

    With respect to Jesse and his opportunities, lets not forget that his most common center at 5 on 5 last year was McDavid followed by Strome (around 230-250 minutes with each) and then just over 100 with each of Leon and Nuge.

    Obviously too much moving around but its not like he didn’t get his time with skilled centers.

  72. VOR says:

    To understand just how incredible the reaction of a scout when they see “the one” can be let me take you back to 1982. It is a meaningless game in the OJPHL in Markham, Ontario.

    Paul Allen has been sent to scout some poor kid whose name is lost in the mists of time.

    On the same team Paul Allen spots a kid who makes the hair on the back of his neck stand up. The kid is small. The kid is glacially slow. But there is something about him.

    Paul Allen does his due diligence. He finds the kid is a lazy punk with a terrible attitude. Apparently the young man is a hard partier. He has dropped out of high school and is pumping gas for living.

    But Paul Allen could see the future. In that famous phone call to his boss Mike Addesa he said, “this is the one. He’ll take us to an NCAA championship, rip up college hockey and be a great pro.”

    Explain how an assistant college coach looking at a hungover 19 year old problem child who went undrafted by the NHL because he was way too slow could know he was seeing a superstar in the making?

    But Paul Allen convinced Mike Addesa to give a high school drop out with impossibly slow boots a hockey scholarship to RPI.

    It turned out all Adam Oates needed was one true believer. That was Paul Allen.

    But I will say it again. How did Paul Allen know?

  73. hunter1909 says:

    pts2pndr: Sorry LT, what I am saying is that there does not seem to be any rational deployment byMcLellan!
    Certain players get added ice time and others are benched for no apparent reason. McLellan could be seen encouraging players on the bench when they were successflu. Last year he was aloof and visibly angry! I have seen him with his family and by what I observed he is a good man! What changed?

    he was on a diet.

  74. frjohnk says:

    VOR:
    To understand just how incredible the reaction of a scout when they see “the one” can be let me take you back to 1982. It is a meaningless game in the OJPHL in Markham, Ontario.

    Paul Allen has been sent to scout some poor kid whose name is lost in the mists of time.

    On the same team Paul Allen spots a kid who makes the hair on the back of his neck stand up. The kid is small. The kid is glacially slow. But there is something about him.

    Paul Allen does his due diligence. He finds the kid is a lazy punk with a terrible attitude. Apparently the young man is a hard partier. He has dropped out of high school and is pumping gas for living.

    But Paul Allen could see the future. In that famous phone call to his boss Mike Addesa he said, “this is the one. He’ll take us to an NCAA championship, rip up college hockey and be a great pro.”

    Explain how an assistant college coach looking at a hungover 19 year old problem child who went undrafted by the NHL because he was way too slow could know he was seeing a superstar in the making?

    But Paul Allen convinced Mike Addesa to give a high school drop out with impossibly slow boots a hockey scholarship to RPI.

    It turned out all Adam Oates needed was one true believer. That was Paul Allen.

    But I will say it again. How did Paul Allen know?

    You are the Paul Harvey of this blog.

    Love these comments.

  75. hunter1909 says:

    VOR: But I will say it again. How did Paul Allen know?

    When you start Microsoft, you should know something.

  76. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide: Oh no. I am assuming he DOESN’T get time on that first line, at least not at first.

    Or 1st PP unit

  77. flyfish1168 says:

    Oilman99: Nobody will be more motivated than Rattie this fall. He has finally had a taste of success,and realizes this is his last big chance.

    He should be motivated. You know the Oilers have 2 players they are grooming for that position. Rattie is just a placeholder and will be part of a deadline deal.

  78. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: Puljujarvi wasn’t ripping it up offensively early (9, 2-0-2 in November) but caught fire in December (13, 6-3-9). After that, he didn’t do much. If you are McLellan, January is vital and you have the Finn pushing. But if you look at his Jan TOI (below) he reaches his peak (14:27) for the season but delivers just 1-3-4 in 10 games.

    February is down to 12:28 (14, 1-1-2) and he doesn’t get back to previous TOI or scoring levels.

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/puljuje01/splits/2018

    What does all of it mean? I think the coach still sees him as a work in progress. I don’t think McLellan is deliberately trying to ruin the kid, and at this point his survival might depend on him unlocking Puljujarvi.

    I agree that what you say is valid. I observed McLellan with his family and he is quality individual! I have been disappointed in his response to certain media questions! I am of the beliief that once trust is damaged it is hard to establish the trust required to move forward. To get the player to believe in you, you have to show the player you believe in him! If you have the players belief/trust in you they will follow you through hell with gass filled britches! Leadership 101 possibly a lost art/value!

  79. pts2pndr says:

    hunter1909: he was on a diet.

    To be a leader it is paramount to keep your head when others do not! You can teach the priciples but the belief, not so much! It is a leap of faith that sounds simple but depends on the stakes!l

  80. Jaxon says:

    VOR: It turned out all Adam Oates needed was one true believer. That was Paul Allen.

    Whaaaaaaaaaaa?!?! Awesome story. Might explain part of why he’s good at coaching skills to players one-on-one. He’s possibly able to get through to people who aren’t seeing the big picture and who need someone to believe in them. Thanks for this.

  81. Wilde says:

    Georgexs,

    Hah, I knew you had this kicking around in your head because you’ve mentioned you didn’t see it with Rieder a couple times. I was wondering how and when you were going to formulate it but wouldn’t have guessed Nail Yakupov. Well done.

    I have a problem with special teams on-ice event rates. I also have a problem with every player who has ever PKed being a ‘good PKer’, though.

  82. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Here is the deal from Matheson:

    “Louie DeBrusk will apparently be handling colour commentary duties with play-by-play man Kevin Quinn on Edmonton Oilers Sportsnet TV broadcasts this winter with Drew Remenda doing between-periods commentary for their Rogers Place home games. When DeBrusk works a weekend HNIC game, Remenda will be providing colour alongside Quinn.”.

    Thank You Sortsnet!

  83. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: Puljujarvi wasn’t ripping it up offensively early (9, 2-0-2 in November) but caught fire in December (13, 6-3-9). After that, he didn’t do much. If you are McLellan, January is vital and you have the Finn pushing. But if you look at his Jan TOI (below) he reaches his peak (14:27) for the season but delivers just 1-3-4 in 10 games.

    February is down to 12:28 (14, 1-1-2) and he doesn’t get back to previous TOI or scoring levels.

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/puljuje01/splits/2018

    What does all of it mean? I think the coach still sees him as a work in progress. I don’t think McLellan is deliberately trying to ruin the kid, and at this point his survival might depend on him unlocking Puljujarvi.

    Young players are prone to ups and downs! Sending JP down while giving time to Yamamoto was to my knowledge of team building counter productive! You have to build a belief system. These young men are first just that, the hockey aspect is secondary! To build a professional you need to treat the individual as a professional! He did not get to where he is at by luck! These young people are not easily replaceable! They need to be coached! My question is has the management of the Oilers done everything in their perview to assure the asset will reach their potential!

  84. Georgexs says:

    I had a look at the rookies thing you posted yesterday. I was initially just going to code the weird rule but I realized that I didn’t have data for any other professional league. So I queried nhl.com with a rookie filter. It worked for the most part. For players who didn’t yet meet the eligibility rule, however, it included any of their seasons as rookie seasons. Bah!

    So I focused just on rookie seasons where the player played more than 25 games. Based on the data, this means I was looking at the better rookies, the ones teams played more than a token number of games.

    – about 20% of rookies and 27% of non-rookies meet the 1.9 EV/60 line in the sand

    – the median EV/60 is 1.44 for both rookies and non-rookies

    – the correlation between EV/60 in the rookie season and EV/60 in subsequent seasons is 0.42

    – so trying to predict future EV/60 performance using just a player’s rookie EV/60 performance is better than nothing but not that great

    I’ll build a model that takes in more data available in the rookie season (draft position, games played, etc.) and see how well you can predict a forward’s career based on his numbers leading up to and including his rookie season. I’ll let you know how it goes.

    Here are some notables who missed the 1.90 rookie cutoff:

    Player, Rookie EV/60

    Kopitar, 1.81
    Datsyuk, 1.79
    Perry, 1.77
    Gaborik, 1.70
    Nash, 1.70
    Ehlers, 1.63
    Neal, 1.62
    Marchessault, 1.59
    Bergeron, 1.57
    D. Sedin, 1.54
    Tavares, 1.54
    Kuznetsov, 1.51
    Parise, 1.46
    Segun, 1.42
    Barkov, 1.40
    Staal, 1.36
    Kucherov, 1.35
    H. Sedin, 1.34
    Krejci, 1.29
    Pacioretty, 1.27
    Hornqvist, 1.23
    W. Karlsson, 1.23
    Eriksson, 1.21
    Granlund, 1.17
    Semin, 1.15
    Sharp, 1.12
    Drai, 1.05
    Cammalleri, 0.56
    J.T. Miller, 0.39

    So, yeah, lots of uncertainty…

    And, OP, JF Jacques was one of 4 players who played more than 25 games in their rookie season and managed to produce 0 EV/60. The one who had the longest career was Cam Janssen who went on to play 289 games. He produced 0.66 EV/60 the rest of the way.

  85. Georgexs says:

    Georgexs,

    Using data from 2000-01 to 2017-18 for this.

  86. Glovjuice says:

    He can spot hockey IQ – also a heathy dose of luck.

    VOR:
    To understand just how incredible the reaction of a scout when they see “the one” can be let me take you back to 1982. It is a meaningless game in the OJPHL in Markham, Ontario.

    Paul Allen has been sent to scout some poor kid whose name is lost in the mists of time.

    On the same team Paul Allen spots a kid who makes the hair on the back of his neck stand up. The kid is small. The kid is glacially slow. But there is something about him.

    Paul Allen does his due diligence. He finds the kid is a lazy punk with a terrible attitude. Apparently the young man is a hard partier. He has dropped out of high school and is pumping gas for living.

    But Paul Allen could see the future. In that famous phone call to his boss Mike Addesa he said, “this is the one. He’ll take us to an NCAA championship, rip up college hockey and be a great pro.”

    Explain how an assistant college coach looking at a hungover 19 year old problem child who went undrafted by the NHL because he was way too slow could know he was seeing a superstar in the making?

    But Paul Allen convinced Mike Addesa to give a high school drop out with impossibly slow boots a hockey scholarship to RPI.

    It turned out all Adam Oates needed was one true believer. That was Paul Allen.

    But I will say it again. How did Paul Allen know?

  87. Glovjuice says:

    Woogie63:
    I find Louie to be beige, I can’t think of anything he has said…

    The After Hours show, with Scott Oake who I had done a lot of background homework, and paints an interesting story is contrasted with big Louie with a few questions scribbled on the back of an envelope.Consistently highlights the huge leap from athlete to real world.

    What is Ray Ferraro doing Saturday night?

    After Hours is Scott’s thing – wasn’t Louie’s place to offer other than what he did.

  88. Georgexs says:

    Wilde:
    Georgexs,

    Hah, I knew you had this kicking around in your head because you’ve mentioned you didn’t see it with Rieder a couple times. I was wondering howand when you were going to formulate it but wouldn’t have guessed Nail Yakupov. Well done.

    I have a problem with special teams on-ice event rates. I also have a problem with every player who has ever PKed being a ‘good PKer’, though.

    Really liked today’s post. I watched the second GA involving Bear and I initially thought, man, Klef should’ve done better before Drai should’ve done better. But you watch it on loop and you see how many things are going on all at once, it’s dizzying. It made me appreciate the way Cammalleri just went to where he needed to be and made the play (twice) in the later clip. Veteran sense, I guess.

    I think your work is cool and important. Numbers don’t tell you a whole lot about defense. With goals, you know who scored, who touched the puck before he scored, and who touched the puck before that, as well as who was on the ice. So you have a record of the actors and the events leading up to the important event. The record of defensive play lacks the details. All you know is who’s on the ice. So there’s a lot more guessing involved if you limit yourself to numbers.

  89. VOR says:

    This link leads to a far ranging interview with the Psychologist Richard Nisbett.

    He starts off railing against linear regressions, though it becomes clear he is suggesting the ecological fallacy is alive and well.

    Then he wanders off and starts talking about truly fascinating stuff.

    By the end he is just spit balling, but it is fun and thought provoking to read.

    Nisbett is best known for showing how little we know about our own motivations and how consistently we misjudge other people’s motivations.

    https://www.edge.org/conversation/richard_nisbett-the-crusade-against-multiple-regression-analysis

  90. v4ance says:

    https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1027338202431082507

    👀 Scared $: This quote from Hue cemented a reason why there’s an uneven playing field in the NFL. It’s not just the Browns. Short life expectancy HC’s are scared to try anything unfamiliar out of fear. Meanwhile, good teams w confident HC’s explore & exhaust all edges to win.

    *****

    I wonder if this applies to McLellan as well? He’s a veteran coach who’s gotten where he is by doing things in a “traditional” way. It may not be the optimal way for this team and this group of players but as long as he’s an “average” NHL coach doing things the way all the old school guys do it, everyone will point to roster construction as the main issue instead of his tactics.

    i.e. The mindset of: “I’m doing things that 90% of the other coaches in the NHL would do it and if it doesn’t work out, those other coaches couldn’t get anything more out of this team in Orange…”

  91. rickithebear says:

    Georgexs:
    I had a look at the rookies thing you posted yesterday. I was initially just going to code the weird rule but I realized that I didn’t have data for any other professional league. So I queried nhl.com with a rookie filter. It worked for the most part. For players who didn’t yet meet the eligibility rule, however, it included any of their seasons as rookie seasons. Bah!

    So I focused just on rookie seasons where the player played more than 25 games. Based on the data, this means I was looking at the better rookies, the ones teams played more than a token number of games.

    – about 20% of rookies and 27% of non-rookies meet the 1.9 EV/60 line in the sand

    – the median EV/60 is 1.44 for both rookies and non-rookies

    – the correlation between EV/60 in the rookie season and EV/60 in subsequent seasons is 0.42

    – so trying to predict future EV/60 performance using just a player’s rookie EV/60 performance is better than nothing but not that great

    I’ll build a model that takes in more data available in the rookie season (draft position, games played, etc.) and see how well you can predict a forward’s career based on his numbers leading up to and including his rookie season. I’ll let you know how it goes.

    Here are some notables who missed the 1.90 rookie cutoff:

    Player, Rookie EV/60

    Kopitar, 1.81
    Datsyuk, 1.79
    Perry, 1.77
    Gaborik, 1.70
    Nash, 1.70
    Ehlers, 1.63
    Neal, 1.62
    Marchessault, 1.59
    Bergeron, 1.57
    D. Sedin, 1.54
    Tavares, 1.54
    Kuznetsov, 1.51
    Parise, 1.46
    Segun, 1.42
    Barkov, 1.40
    Staal, 1.36
    Kucherov, 1.35
    H. Sedin, 1.34
    Krejci, 1.29
    Pacioretty, 1.27
    Hornqvist, 1.23
    W. Karlsson, 1.23
    Eriksson, 1.21
    Granlund, 1.17
    Semin, 1.15
    Sharp, 1.12
    Drai, 1.05
    Cammalleri, 0.56
    J.T. Miller, 0.39

    So, yeah, lots of uncertainty…

    And, OP, JF Jacques was one of 4 players who played more than 25 games in their rookie season and managed to produce 0 EV/60. The one who had the longest career was Cam Janssen who went on to play 289 games. He produced 0.66 EV/60 the rest of the way.

    Non age based peer measure is taking a standard created by writers who are trained to write to grade 3 level.

    Age peers January cutoff.
    Nothing else.
    Desjardins curv evstates the daily reduction from sept 16 is:

    Draft -1 (16) 100 to 75% = 25%; 25/365 = .0685% per day
    100 – (days past sept16 x .0685)

    Draft (17) 75 to 50% = 25%; 25/365 = .0685% per day
    75 – (days past sept16 x .0685)

    Draft + 1 (18) 50 to 40% = 10%; 10/365 = .0274% per day

    Draft +2 (19) 40% to 35% = 5%; 5/365 = .0137% per day

    Daily reduction
    Age peers: I use 50% of 82gm +1
    Try to use like GAA seasons
    Start with quick ref ppg
    Then seperate into unit play.
    Even, Pp, PK
    Seperate forwards into
    goal scorer g and P
    Set up A, A1, P

    07-08 to 16-17

    18 year old rookie puljujarvi
    Should not be measured against a
    19yr old rookie Tkachuk .17 gpg.63 PPG, 18 fwds
    24 yr old rookie Panarin 17 Fwds

    20 yr old Dra .26 gpg .71 ppg 25 fwds
    21 yr old Drai .37 gpg .93 ppg 11 fwds
    22 yr old Drai .32 gpg .89 ppg 19 fwds
    3 yrs combined .31 gpg .83 ppg 15 fwds

    I gets rid of the school girl wolf pack (turn on a diffrent beta weekly) hyperbole rampant in MSM.

  92. VOR says:

    Glovjuice:
    He can spot hockey IQ – also a heathy dose of luck.

    I thought it was largely luck when I first started to study the phenomena. But when you interview the scouts you come to realize they are describing a unique experience they share in common. The language, the descriptors they use are similar to those of people describing mystic and ecstatic experiences. And for that matter extremely similar to jocks describing peak athletic experiences.

    For example, “It was like time slowed down”, “Everything was happening in slow motion.” “It was like a really old film, I saw frame by frame how he set the goal up,” “There was a spot light shining on him, following him around the ice.”

  93. rickithebear says:

    v4ance:
    https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1027338202431082507

    Scared $: This quote from Hue cemented a reason why there’s an uneven playing field in the NFL. It’s not just the Browns. Short life expectancy HC’s are scared to try anything unfamiliar out of fear. Meanwhile, good teams w confident HC’s explore & exhaust all edges to win.

    *****

    I wonder if this applies to McLellan as well?He’s a veteran coach who’s gotten where he is by doing things in a “traditional” way.It may not be the optimal way for this team and this group of players but as long as he’s an “average” NHL coach doing things the way all the old school guys do it, everyone will point to roster construction as the main issue instead of his tactics.

    i.e. The mindset of: “I’m doing things that 90% of the other coaches in the NHL would do it and if it doesn’t work out, those other coaches couldn’t get anything more out of this team in Orange…”

    You have to identify systems.
    Baseline performance.
    Def triangle is like red zone (ppg)
    Reduce Penetration leads to low TD/RZ like def triangle GA/CA; best measures.
    Equalized pocession: Def ppg yeild/gm; like Open shot density/CA

    Belichek and me!

    36/51 GA Was abandoning HD def triangle.
    The 3 WHL scouts I constantly talked too now agree with the philosophy Off dmen are not dmen they are Rovers,
    Thier org are known as progressive and have been told that shift repeatability is a marker in identifying the undrafted and lower round picks.
    High picks ceiling repeatability
    Lower picks repatativevbaseline performance.
    I can now use thier names in any Media presentation.

    Modern multi sport athletes understand mistake free system play. ( baseline performance)

  94. rickithebear says:

    VOR: I thought it was largely luck when I first started to study the phenomena. But when you interview the scouts you come to realize they are describing a unique experience they share in common. The language, the descriptors they use are similar to those of people describing mystic and ecstatic experiences. And for that matter extremely similar to jocks describing peak athletic experiences.

    For example, “It was like time slowed down”, “Everything was happening in slow motion.” “It was like a really old film, I saw frame by frame how he set the goal up,” “There was a spot light shining on him, following him around the ice.”

    When your teammates can be trusted to have high repeatable system play.
    You mentally gather thier Pavlov driven actions, mechanism, that is Pavlov driven recall/recognition.
    Intuition?
    You can call it that!
    You have seen the action so many times things slow down.
    Or
    you see the path in advance and the play follows it slowly.

    You see a 5 player defensive structure and know thier will be 7 direction changes including reverse of direction. That you know it’s requires you to run wide to opposite side of pitch from center to the 22.
    Resulting in a pass and a ……

    Minds can think at that medium demand level.

    I just talked to a Big hockey fan at jersey city.
    Who trying to take dungeon and dragons to a more free form.
    Like the origional D&D set.

    Taking all the generational standards that bind play to game theory aproach which is bound by the archaic linear approach to analysis rather than free form change. It has the same restrictive bias of uni.

    In the discussion it lead to the best description of real Emperical approach.

    My math is
    1. Boolean driven when looking at mechanism of play.

    2. First order Aproach

    3. Multi varible logic: My success map is really a complex 3d matrices driven by the same collection of axis team, comp, ZS. That results in a node to node map with truth tables at all nodes.
    The truth Table can be binary which continues two linear paths.

    4. Axiomatic method. The truth tables can be multi variable redirected paths.
    that relocate to a complete diffrent path node in a bi directional route.

    Back to more complex mechanical path (more action) or forward To simpler path ( less actions)
    Follow a parallel path to one of the binary paths but ends up with a completely different set of results.

    5. Rejection of path/ nodes
    Paths one of the parallel paths variance in result is minimal relative to scale of measure HD prevention 500% to 100%. The parrallel path has variances of 2 – 10% at each node. The node count increases the scaled affect reduces.
    Nodes: scale terms can be rejected by affect on genaeral measure of ( capital rejection) 500% affect

    6. Probability logic: introduces a whole collection of theories, but establishes probability value to any defined path. Linear, loop, etc.
    forcing, structure, vectors, these lead to relational database theory, database modeling.

    7. Linear algebra, plane geometry, array geometry,

    8. All the theories you speak of are binary in nature with bidirectional tests.
    They rely on regression Modeling. Become invalid in axiom based ( real world) analytics.
    Which by other theorems excludes algorithmic analysis/modelling.

    9. Heyting algebra: My Boolean matricies anslysis Goal is to establish the boundaries of style of play.
    Finding the worst and bes action/players.
    The bound matrices marrries Boolean and Heyting with a whole serries of papers on human action analysis. A whole field of human biomechanical action analysis.
    The basis of all my theories.

    Linear mathematician stepping away from thier own rejections of axiom interpretive modeling.
    I rejected studying math As an option in 2nd try at Univ. Realizing thier was no math relation influences.

    10. Linear regression mathematics seeks a single answer to a question by eliminating outer affects
    Interpreted affect ( rule changes) so your world can stay the same.
    True dynamic game play looks at those changes as axioms or result variance.

    It only builds on a belief in theorems I would discuss with theoretical math and real worl teams that my dad would work on. Had formed that opinion by age 12.

    Thanks for the chance to read on my 48 hr awake period compliments of steroid and chemo.

    I made the correct decision, @ uni.

  95. Genjutsu says:

    I’m really not sure where all the top 6 love for Tobias Rieder comes from. He’s never scored 20 goals. in fact only once has he broke the 15 goal plateau, he had 16; Also Toby has never had 40 points and has spend time with substantial offensive centers.

    bottom 6 and a ton PK work is where I see him fitting best.

    He just doesn’t have enough gun to ride shotgun with Connor or Leon.

  96. godot10 says:

    Genjutsu:
    I’m really not sure where all the top 6 love for Tobias Rieder comes from. He’s never scored 20 goals. in fact only once has he broke the 15 goal plateau, he had 16; Also Toby has never had 40 points and has spend time with substantial offensive centers.

    bottom 6 and a ton PK work is where I see him fitting best.

    He just doesn’t have enough gun to ride shotgun with Connor or Leon.

    Rieder made the NHL and stayed after about 40 games in the AHL. Rattie hasn’t got out of the AHL in 5 years. Who is the NHL winger?

    Nobody is saying Rieder is going to push the river in the top six, but he is probably a better winger right now than everyone except Nugent-Hopkins. And he can play both sides of the puck. And PK. He can play with skill.

    Is Connor Sheary a top six player?

    Yamamoto is a rookie. Puljujarvi has struggled under this coach. Both have the potential to displace Rieder out of #1RW and #2RW,..but then Rieder becomes #2LW if that happens.

    McDavid has been saying he would like some stability on his wings. So one should probably start with the guys who have actually played in the league.

  97. Lowetide says:

    Genjutsu:
    I’m really not sure where all the top 6 love for Tobias Rieder comes from. He’s never scored 20 goals. in fact only once has he broke the 15 goal plateau, he had 16; Also Toby has never had 40 points and has spend time with substantial offensive centers.

    bottom 6 and a ton PK work is where I see him fitting best.

    He just doesn’t have enough gun to ride shotgun with Connor or Leon.

    Veteran coaches usually prefer veteran players and Leon’s No. 2 line is an important one. Eventually the top two RW’s on the team will be JP and KY (lord willin’ and the crick don’t rise) but for now he’s a solid bet.

    As he has scored mid-teens before, and if he plays with Leon, 20 is possible.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Genjutsu:
    I’m really not sure where all the top 6 love for Tobias Rieder comes from. He’s never scored 20 goals. in fact only once has he broke the 15 goal plateau, he had 16; Also Toby has never had 40 points and has spend time with substantial offensive centers.

    bottom 6 and a ton PK work is where I see him fitting best.

    He just doesn’t have enough gun to ride shotgun with Connor or Leon.

    Agreed – I think Rieder can be spotted in to the top 6 but should be generally slotted on the third line and I think he will excel in a middle 6/3rd line role.

    Projections of him as a top 6 forward are providing unreasonable expectations for him in my opinion. Yes, he’ll be in the top 180 scorers among forwards so, technically top 6, however, I don’t think he’s a 50 plus point guy which is what most want to see on the 2nd line I would think.

  99. russ99 says:

    godot10: Rieder made the NHL and stayed after about 40 games in the AHL.Rattie hasn’t got out of the AHL in 5 years.Who is the NHL winger?

    Nobody is saying Rieder is going to push the river in the top six, but he is probably a better winger right now than everyone except Nugent-Hopkins.And he can play both sides of the puck.And PK.He can play with skill.

    Is Connor Sheary a top six player?

    Yamamoto is a rookie.Puljujarvi has struggled under this coach.Both have the potential to displace Rieder out of #1RW and #2RW,..but then Rieder becomes #2LW if that happens.

    McDavid has been saying he would like some stability on his wings.So one should probably start with the guys who have actually played in the league.

    With the uncertainty at RW, it’s very possible Rieder ends up at 2RW.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Rieder made the NHL and stayed after about 40 games in the AHL.Rattie hasn’t got out of the AHL in 5 years.Who is the NHL winger?

    Nobody is saying Rieder is going to push the river in the top six, but he is probably a better winger right now than everyone except Nugent-Hopkins.And he can play both sides of the puck.And PK.He can play with skill.

    Is Connor Sheary a top six player?

    Yamamoto is a rookie.Puljujarvi has struggled under this coach.Both have the potential to displace Rieder out of #1RW and #2RW,..but then Rieder becomes #2LW if that happens.

    McDavid has been saying he would like some stability on his wings.So one should probably start with the guys who have actually played in the league.

    If McDavid wants some stability on his lines then I don’t see why Rieder would be a guy to put with him as we know that he is more suited to the middle 6/3rd line than the first line.

    If we are looking for stability with McDavid then Puljujarvi (or Yamamoto) is the guy as he’s got the pedigree to get an opportunity and grab it for the next decade, Rieder doesn’t.

  101. Pescador says:

    Lowetide: Veteran coaches usually prefer veteran players and Leon’s No. 2 line is an important one. Eventually the top two RW’s on the team will be JP and KY (lord willin’ and the crick don’t rise) but for now he’s a solid bet.

    As he has scored mid-teens before, and if he plays with Leon, 20 is possible.

    If we see Top 6 production out of Reider, it may hinge on how Lucic performs.
    If Milan is stumbling bumbling again then the second line will have an anchor instead of another engine.
    Problem is the roster doesn’t have a suitable replacement for 2LW,
    Unless Rattie can perform (GULP), does coach McL have the moxy to try;
    Reider Leon JP

  102. VOR says:

    rickithebear,

    I take exception to your statement number 8.

    I don’t posit structured theories here.

    My work is largely descriptive.

    If you are reading me elsewhere you know I use a very large array of tools in my modelling.

    If you have first hand experience working with me, and given the several points our paths might have crossed it isn’t impossible you’d know I am given to seeing all sides of nearly any argument and being a very creative problem solver who will use any tool that might help.

  103. VOR says:

    VOR:
    rickithebear,

    I take exception to your statement number 8.

    I don’t posit structured theories here.

    My work is largely descriptive.

    If you are reading me elsewhere you know I use a very large array of tools in my modelling.

    If you have first hand experience working with me, and given the several points our paths might have crossed it isn’t impossible you’d know I am given to seeing all sides of nearly any argument and being a very creative problem solver who will use any tool that might help.

    I see hockey as an ocean filled with currents, tides, the occasional tsunami and billions and billions of living things, all interacting. Think of the living things as on ice events and you have hockey.

    Now imagine trying to use reductive tools to explain the ocean.

  104. jp says:

    Genjutsu:
    I’m really not sure where all the top 6 love for Tobias Rieder comes from. He’s never scored 20 goals. in fact only once has he broke the 15 goal plateau, he had 16; Also Toby has never had 40 points and has spend time with substantial offensive centers.

    bottom 6 and a ton PK work is where I see him fitting best.

    He just doesn’t have enough gun to ride shotgun with Connor or Leon.

    Whether or not Rieder is a “top 6” winger, the fact is he’s easily one of the best 4 wingers available at this time.

    The career highs in goals for current Oilers wingers are (RNH as winger, Drai as C for this):
    30, 24, 16, 14, 13, 12, 11, 5, 4, 0

    There’s Rieder’s 16 in 3rd place.

    Hopefully others step up and push Rieder to his ideal spot on the 3rd line, but as it is there aren’t enough actual NHLers to fill out the top 6. Rieder very well may prove to be the best available.

    All that said I also think there’s room for him to score more than he has thus far.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Whether or not Rieder is a “top 6” winger, the fact is he’s easily one of the best 4 wingers available at this time.

    The career highs in goals for current Oilers wingers are (RNH as winger, Drai as C for this):
    30, 24, 16, 14, 13, 12, 11, 5, 4, 0

    There’s Rieder’s 16 in 3rd place.

    Hopefully others step up and push Rieder to his ideal spot on the 3rd line, but as it is there aren’t enough actual NHLers to fill out the top 6. Rieder very well may prove to be the best available.

    All that said I also think there’s room for him to score more than he has thus far.

    Fair enough, however there is also room for Puljujarvi (and Yamamoto) to score more than they did in the past and I don’t think there is any doubt they both have higher offensive potential than Rieder and we count them as likely top 6 options in the future.

    They may not be ready but I think they should be given the shot to succeed – they are “top 6 players” whereas Rieder is a “middle 6 players”.

    I would suggest we insert the players in to the lineup at positions where they are most likely to succeed.

  106. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Fair enough, however there is also room for Puljujarvi (and Yamamoto) to score more than they did in the past and I don’t think there is any doubt they both have higher offensive potential than Rieder and we count them as likely top 6 options in the future.

    They may not be ready but I think they should be given the shot to succeed – they are “top 6 players” whereas Rieder is a “middle 6 players”.

    I would suggest we insert the players in to the lineup at positions where they are most likely to succeed.

    100% agree they could/should score more than they have. Also agreed that one or both may be able to handle 1RW/2RW this season. Hopefully sooner than later.

    But if the question is who’s the best RW for Connor or Drai today, IMO the answer is Rieder. Hopefully that’s not the case for long, and obviously the Oilers will be better for it if/when that day comes.

  107. Andy Dufresne says:

    Georgexs:
    “I’ve always seen this as ‘replacing Jordan Eberle’ but with the acquisition of Tobias Rieder perhaps we’re looking at a more complete player.”

    Which one of these is Eberle, which one is Rieder … and which one is Nail Yakupov?

    Player 1

    588 GP
    0.75 Pts/GP
    2.12 P/60
    50.0 CF%
    +4.2 Rel CF%
    50.3 GF%
    +6.6 Rel GF%

    Player 2

    350 GP
    0.39 Pts/GP
    1.43 P/60
    46.8 CF%
    -0.9 Rel CF%
    42.3 GF%
    -3.4 Rel GF%

    Player 3

    312 GP
    0.38 Pts/GP
    1.22 P/60
    47.6 CF%
    0.6 Rel CF%
    42.6 GF%
    -2.3 Rel GF%

    Thank you for your work. Good conversation piece in the middle of August.

    The one thing that would make it more meaningful for me would be the dollars.

    Its a Cap League. Cap space is as important/valuable as physcial assets.

    What does Reider cost as compared to Eberle? Which one is better value in a cap world? Based on points per dollar and range of skills?

    Its obvious that Eberle is the better player and the better value….but by how much given the dollars.

  108. Andy Dufresne says:

    VOR: I see hockey as an ocean filled with currents, tides, the occasional tsunami and billions and billions of living things, all interacting. Think of the living things as on ice events and you have hockey.

    Now imagine trying to use reductive tools to explain the ocean.

    Ive reduced it down to NaCl and H2O. Kind of like Plus/Minus in hockey.

    Helps me to see it, enjoy it, as simply beautiful…..like hockey.

  109. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: Oh no. I am assuming he DOESN’T get time on that first line, at least not at first.

    I can gaurantee that he will get time on the first line…….when he earns it…….or the good old fashion way….when someone above him gets injured…..lets hope he’s got what it takes to take advantage of opportunity…..some do…..some dont.

  110. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Pronman was in Kamloops for the Summer Showcase and watched video of the Czech/Finland and gave his view on the teams and certain players:

    Ostap Safin, LW, Edmonton: Safin is an intriguing player due to his athletic tools. He’s 6-foot-5 and skates like he’s 5-foot-11. There was one play during the exhibitions where he came back hard on defense, making up a few feet on his check, delivered a hit, got the puck back and rushed it the other way for a clean entry. With Safin, I think his size/speed combo gets him to the league; my question is whether he has enough skill/offensive IQ to make a dent scoring-wise in the NHL. I think it’s possible, but his offensive flashes are quite inconsistent in terms of those attributes.

    He also had Ryan McLeod projected on to Team Canada’s roster which is nice to see as he’s a bubble guy.

    Of course Bouchard was listed as he’s a lock. No Rodrigue though (although he only listed two goalies – I think they take three, don’t they?).

    As an aside, he did NOT have Phil Kemp in the US starting top 6.

    Thank you for these prospect updates. A strength of yours. Really appreciate them.

  111. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woogie63:
    The Oilers would be settling on Rattie and Rieder playing top 6 minutes.

    Given the roster is basically done, I would get my head around:

    RNH-McDavid-Yamamoto

    Today Yamamoto is an upgrade on Rattie.This line will have speed and skill I could see +35 goal seasons from each player.

    Lucic- Draisaitl-Puljujarvi

    If you want JP to break out he needs a skilled center, just like Leon and Nail and Taylor and Tkachuk in Calgary…this is a hugely skilled procession line, imagine the cycle against Quinn Hughes.I could see 20-30-30 goals from this line.

    Caggiula-Strome-Rieder

    10-15-20 goals

    Khaira-Brodziak-Kassian

    8-8-8

    Besides cap space……The main reason the Oilers are hiring the Ratties, Reiders, and Brodziaks of the world, is that they are place holders……for the JP’s, Yamamottos, Khaira’s and Bensons who are all positioned to take over this year……

  112. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: I don’t think McLellan is deliberately trying to ruin the kid,

    ???

  113. Andy Dufresne says:

    pts2pndr: I agree that what you say is valid. I observed McLellan with his family and he isquality individual!I have beendisappointedin his response to certain media questions! I am of the beliief that once trust is damaged it is hard to establish the trust required to move forward. To get the player to believe in you, you have to show the player you believe in him! If you have the players belief/trust in you they will follow you through hell with gass filled britches!Leadership 101 possibly a lost art/value!

    I respect your opinon. IMO TMac showed a level of composure and contraint that I have rarely seen in the face of such frustrating circumstances. Top draw professional in that respect…in my opinion.

  114. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Fair enough, however there is also room for Puljujarvi (and Yamamoto) to score more than they did in the past and I don’t think there is any doubt they both have higher offensive potential than Rieder and we count them as likely top 6 options in the future.

    They may not be ready but I think they should be given the shot to succeed – they are “top 6 players” whereas Rieder is a “middle 6 players”.

    I would suggest we insert the players in to the lineup at positions where they are most likely to succeed.

    In my opinion both were rushed to the NHL before their time so to expect NHL improvements at this point without further development time seems like wishful thinking.

    One or both (less likely) may step up, but it’s nice to have NHL options in case they don’t.

    The whole top six/middle six doesn’t matter if there are players who can do well up or down in the lineup.

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