Every Breaking Waive

by Lowetide

There are few things in life I enjoy more than a waiver claim. The old Intra-League draft was one, the annual entry draft is another, and there are a few private things a gentleman doesn’t talk about in public. Either way, waiver claims are right up there in terms of appeal, so you can imagine how much my heart soared when the Oilers general manager specifically brought up the subject yesterday. Music!

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

PETER CHIARELLI’S 2018 SUMMER LIST

  1. Veteran scoring right winger. I’ve always seen this as ‘replacing Jordan Eberle’ but with the acquisition of Tobias Rieder perhaps we’re looking at a more complete player. It’s also true that in-house options like Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto might make things moot.
  2. Two-way left winger. The signing of Kyle Brodziak, a center, addresses this need and gives the coach a veteran he can count on. This could also easily be Rieder, in fact he’s a perfect fit for this area. If we started plotting the roster and began with the third line, a Rieder-Nuge pairing might be fabulous.https://www.nhl.com/news/connor-mcdavid-anticipates-improved-edmonton-oilers/c-299703398?tid=277548856
  3. Puck mover. I didn’t think this should be a priority, and the addition of Evan Bouchard appears to have calmed the waters. I don’t believe Bouchard is going to play the entire season, so this might be a waiver option.
  4. No. 7 defender. My suspicion is that Kevin Gravel wins this job over Keegan Lowe and others.
  5. Backup goalie. The Oilers spent some money on Mikko Koskinen, an expensive, unproven option but his resume is solid.

It was a quiet summer, but Connor McDavid is saying all the right things. I’ve said this many times before, but it’s the minutes when McDavid is at rest that are at issue. Rieder was a helluva find.

WAIVERS LIST

  • Anaheim: Chase De Leo. The Ducks traded for him at the end of June. He scored 69, 12-23-35 in the AHL and I think he could easily replace Drake Caggiula (they are similar players) at a far lower cap hit.
  • Arizona: Michael Bunting. I liked his speed and skill on draft day 2014, not much has changed. His AHL totals (67, 23-20-43) showed marked improvement and he has to be close to making his NHL debut.
  • Florida: Frank Vatrano. The Panthers shuffle players with extreme regularity, Vatrano has some offensive touch and doesn’t cost a lot.
  • Tampa Bay: Adam Erne. He’s been a slow developing player in a machine gun system, but I like his size/speed/low center of gravity. He’s the kind of player who can dig out pucks for the skill forwards.
  • Toronto: Josh Leivo. Toronto has a bunch of kids who are pushing by him (Johnsson for sure) but Leivo remains a worthy bet. I’ve been mentioning him so long, he’ll probably end up in Calgary scoring 20 goals a season with Monahan.
  • Winnipeg: Marko Dano. Has many nice things, including speed and skill. Bloom is off the rose now but maybe all he needs is a change of scenery. Has played for three NHL teams, that’s a lot for someone 24 who isn’t completely established.

TRAINING CAMP BATTLES

  • Peter Chiarelli: We’re going to kind of take it slowly because we also have some guys that may compete and beat out guys – younger players – that might be in that category.” Source

I found this quote (I didn’t hear the interview but the article linked to is solid) to be interesting because there doesn’t seem to be a lot of battles. I count 29 men for 23 jobs, but the players most likely to be sent out are Al Montoya, Keegan Lowe, Ethan Bear, Brad Malone and Cooper Marody. So it’s really 24 men for 23 jobs. Plus the waiver wire.

  • No. 1 RW: Leon Draisaitl remains on the roster, so don’t completely discount the idea of a McDavid-Draisaitl combination. Ty Rattie, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Drake Caggiula and Pontus Aberg are all possibilities, plus the waiver wire. My belief is the Oilers have Yamamoto ahead of Puljujarvi, but the Finn may spike this fall and he has the biggest hammer of all (impact potential).
  • No. 2 RW: Tobias Rieder may have the inside track, at least early. This is (in my opinion) the entry point for Puljujarvi into the top 6F, on his way (eventually) to the McDavid line. I don’t think Rattie plays with Leon a lot, Draisaitl will need a more consistent player without the puck. Yamamoto and Aberg are candidates here.
  • No. 3LW: Drake Caggiula has the inside track early, but his track record has some holes and he may not be able to keep it. Jujhar Khaira played well with Ryan Strome, perhaps that duo gets back together. Pontus Aberg brings some things, he might displace Caggiula as the season wears along. Tyler Benson will eventually be in the conversation, but it’s unlikely to happen this fall.
  • No. 5C: Ryan Malone is the only obvious candidate, making this a possible waiver option. The appeal of having centers play on the wing (Nuge, Khaira) is more room to wheel.
  • No. 6D: Matt Benning or Kris Russell will have the job entering camp, with Evan Bouchard pushing. I think Andrej Sekera may get some rest, allowing Russell to move over to his natural side. If Bouchard earns the NHL job, a trade will eventually occur.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, TSN1260, a mixture of fun and sadness. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Stan Mikita passed yesterday, we’ll chat about the legendary Chicago Blackhawks star and how much he impacted the game.
  • Shane Malloy, XMRadio/TSN Radio. Shane’s in Edmonton for the Hlinka-Gretzky tournament, we’ll chat about the event, the players who caught his eye, and a little about the Oilers’ prospect base.
  • Derek Taylor, TSN. We’ll chat with Derek about the CFL week to come, and what looks to be a fabulous back to back battle between the Eskimos and Stampeders beginning Labor Day weekend.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

116 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
116 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
OriginalPouzar

Some quotes from McDavid:

https://www.nhl.com/news/connor-mcdavid-…=277548856

TORONTO — Connor McDavid said he supports management’s decision to keep the core of the Edmonton Oilers roster intact for this season.

“I think the message was that if there was a move to be made, they’d make it,” the Oilers captain said Tuesday. “But obviously nothing too promising came up. That’s good. You want to keep the team together.”

——————-
Edmonton went 13-10-2 from that point to finish the season, a modest improvement that McDavid said he and his teammates can build on.

“There’s just got to be a point in time where you get sick of losing and you just own it,” McDavid said. “Guys came together. Guys were getting sick of the way things were going and wanted to get back to playing hockey the way it should be, get back to doing what you have to do to win.

“It was a good learning experience, obviously something we don’t want to go through again.”

——————————

“I’m very excited to bring those guys on,” McDavid said. “Rieder, obviously with his speed and offensive play, he’ll fit in with the centers we have. And Brodziak’s been around so long and does things the right way.

“We’re just looking to get some chemistry. It’s funny we talk about it because it’s been three years now … Just going to training camp and try to stay with each other.”

OriginalPouzar

From the last quote above, it seems like McDavid would like some steady linemates. To me, that would mean that Rattie should not start the season as 1RW as I simply don’t think he’s a long term (or even a medium term) option at 1RW.

He is a poor skater and not very good outside of the offensive zone (and was a huge draft on McDavid in the minutes he played with him without Nuge on the ice).

Here is hoping that Jesse (or Kailer) can win that job on merit in camp.

Strome is another solid option but I don’t see it happening.

OriginalPouzar

I absolutely see Rieder as that “two-way winger”.

Personally, I would love to find a way to keep him on the 3rd line for the most part as I think he will/would excel in that role. With that said, it seems likely that he starts the season on the 2nd line unless both Jesse and Kailer win top 6 jobs on merit – I will bank on one, not both.

OriginalPouzar

Chiarelli expressly mentioned that drafting Bouchard “tempered” their search for a d-man but it did not stop the search. He expressly mentioned that they are always trying to improve the defence and that there is some risk with the current group.

With that said, I’m not so sure he will be looking to add a waiver wire type pick up. I think we are set with the incumbent six. Gravel can fight with Stanton and Lowe for the 7th spot. Bouchard is a wild-card and I think, if he sticks, it doesn’t change anything else with the defence and we start the season with 8D.

Bear is a wild card but I think we can all (or most of us can) agree that his game needs more work prior to another NHL stint. He could transition the puck at the NHL level (maybe the best on the team) but no part of his game away from the puck was NHL level and he get caved at evens.

OriginalPouzar

I would really like to see Aberg get a true shot in the top 6 with Leon.

He’s got the speed, skill and smarts – inconsistency has been his issue (along with stupid things like missing practice).

At $650K, he could provide a huge value contract and bridge a bit of a gap until Puljujarvi proves ready to graduate from 3RW to the top 6 (which may happen in October).

OriginalPouzar

In my opinion, assuming Lucic starts the season as 2LW and Nuge as 1LW, Jujhar should have the inside track on the 3LW spot over Caggulia.

Caggulia is a pure energy guy suited for the 4th line – at least at this stage of his career.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide:
OP: I don’t think Rattie is a poor skater but it isn’t a strength either. Ideally Jesse Puljujarvi scores on a 2-on-1 with McDavid early in the preseason and the chem takes them into a successful regular season.

I agree with the hope.

In the article you linked (sorry for my posts on it – I posted them before I read), McDavid seems to imply he would like some steadier linemates and does anyone really see Rattie there for longer than a short stretch.

Hopefully Jesse wins that job at camp.

I wonder if Rattie can stay in the lineup (or even on the roster) if he’s not at 1RW?

If Bouchard stays and they carry 8D, Rattie may be the one to go.

Wilde

Finished off a long post from a game with a ton going on in it; March 1st at home vs Nasvhille:

https://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2018/08/march-1-vs-nsh-leons-line-in.html

Randomly can’t fix the font at some parts but I’ve given up because I’m running on all of zero sleep

– The Black Dog Pat Mikita piece is a quality read

– On Safin I feel it’s usually just optimal for X team to bring up Y CHL import to the AHL early, but for the Oilers and Bakersfield and the rookie coach I don’t know if you do it

– This is like an opposite contingency-plan but there should probably be a plan for if Rattie legit fills out that top line for over half the season effectively and how to take advantage of that in deployment for the bottom three lines; I honestly don’t know how I’d configure that yet

PJfanofJP

Long time reader, first time poster.

Forgive me if this has been discussed previously, but I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on the Sea Dogs import draftees. Both supposedly elite forwards – Maxim Cajkovic from Slovakia (1 OV in the import draft) and Filip Prikryl from the Czech Republic. Cajkovic is a goal scoring winger and Prikryl is a playmaking centre.

St. John appears to be going younger; do you think St. John might try to encourage Safin to go Bakersfield? Or do you think they’ll welcome him back. If he is back, how beneficial will it be for him to play with Cajkovic?

The other wrinkle is that the Sea Dogs desperately need a good centre, having moved Veleno last season. If I understand the rules correctly, ifthey choose to keep Safin, they cannot import Prikryl (the centre).

I’ve posted the Sea Dogs Import Draft Press release below. Please skip over it if this is old news or doesn’t interest you.

The Saint John Sea Dogs selected two highly skilled forwards in Thursday’s CHL Import Draft.

With the first overall pick, the Sea Dogs selected Slovakian forward Maxim Cajkovic from the Malmo Redhawks junior program in Sweden. The 17-year-old forward recorded 14 goals and three assists in 10 games with the under-18 team and added 10 goals and 11 helpers in 20 matches with the under-20 squad.

Cajkovic was dominant with Slovakia at the World Under-18 Championships, finishing second in tournament scoring with four goals and seven assists in five games, trailing only American forward Jack Hughes by one point.

“He has a great toolbox, he’s a smart player, and he will grow with our young talented nucleus,” said Sea Dogs President and General Manager Trevor Georgie. “He is excited to be a Sea Dog. He can’t wait to get here and will be very motivated in his NHL Draft year. He is very proud to wear our jersey and wants to be part of what is happening here in Saint John.”

Georgie and head coach Josh Dixon plan on meeting with Cajkovic this weekend at the Newport Sports Development Camp in Toronto.

“He has told us that he is excited to put the blue, black, and white on for the first time this weekend,” said Georgie, adding that Cajkovic is a goal scorer that will compliment Saint John’s existing forward group well. “We are going to spend some time to get to know him and remind him that he is just 17 and there is going to be an adjustment period moving to Canada, not just on the ice, but off the ice as well. We will be patient with him like all our other young players and will raise him the Sea Dogs way.”

Cajkovic becomes the second player to be drafted by the Sea Dogs with the first overall pick in the CHL Import Draft. In 2009, Saint John used the top pick to select Russian forward Stanislav Galiev.

Saint John opted to use its second round pick in this year’s Import Draft as well, selecting Czech forward Filip Prikryl 61st overall. The 17-year-old spent last season with HC Plzen junior program where he recorded seven goals and 21 assists in 14 games with the under-18 team and another four goals and 21 assists in 26 games with the under-20 squad.

“We are very pleased where we got him and love his skill set,” said Georgie. “He is a young player with lots of high end tools.”

Both Cajkovic and Prikryl are eligible for the 2019 NHL Draft. Selecting two imports gives the Sea Dogs some roster security and options moving forward if returning import Ostap Safin stays in the professional ranks.

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: I agree with the hope.

In the article you linked (sorry for my posts on it – I posted them before I read), McDavid seems to imply he would like some steadier linemates and does anyone really see Rattie there for longer than a short stretch.

Hopefully Jesse wins that job at camp.

I wonder if Rattie can stay in the lineup (or even on the roster) if he’s not at 1RW?

If Bouchard stays and they carry 8D, Rattie may be the one to go.

Where Rattie was at last season, and given his physical attributes, he has to be a significant finisher to stay in the NHL IMO. He’ll be in Europe if he can’t stick I’d imagine. There aren’t any better NHL opportunities than he has now.

Jordan

What I want to start the year:

Chiarelli signing Jesse to a 3-8 year extension at between 2 and 3.5M/season

Then run:

RNH – CMD – JPJ
Lucic – Drai – Reider
Khaira – Strome – Kassian
Cags – Brodz – Aberg

Let Jesse develop some chem with Connor, but be sure his salary is locked in for a few years – we don’t want him getting the McDavid bump as he finishes his entry level deal.

Bag of Pucks

I agree LT. I’m not seeing ‘battles’ throughout the lineup to the extent that Chiarelli’s comments would indicate.

There are certainly some good roster spot challenges shaping up, but much of it contingent (as always) on youth taking a big step forward. I think it would behoove Chiarelli to bring in a couple hungry vets on PTOs to amp up the competition in training camp and the preseason. The worry here is that you have a HC shown to favour vets and so Pete may worry that if it’s close btw a PTO and a prospect, TMac may lean towards the older player?

In terms of this lineup returning to form, I think one thing we absolutely have to see is a return to the club having functional toughness and playing with an edge. Both Lucic and Kassian got too comfortable least season imo. Combine that with the loss of Maroon and this team did not have the same level of aggression amongst the F ranks. I do like the pushback on the D side however. Lots of sand throughout those pairings now.

digger50

Bag of Pucks:
I agree LT. I’m not seeing ‘battles’ throughout the lineup to the extent that Chiarelli’s comments would indicate.

There are certainly some good roster spot challenges shaping up, but much of it contingent (as always) on youth taking a big step forward. I think it would behoove Chiarelli to bring in a couple hungry vets on PTOs to amp up the competition in training camp and the preseason. The worry here is that you have a HC shown to favour vets and so Pete may worry that if it’s close btw a PTO and a prospect, TMac may lean towards the older player?

In terms of this lineup returning to form, I think one thing we absolutely have to see is a return to the club having functional toughness and playing with an edge. Both Lucic and Kassian got too comfortable least season imo. Combine that with the loss of Maroon and this team did not have the same level of aggression amongst the F ranks. I do like the pushback on the D side however. Lots of sand throughout those pairings now.

I agree, they absolutely need that degree of toughness and pushback to return. Last year however I feel our guys did not get comfortable, they were muzzled by the head coach. He was worried about penalties and I guess that was a valid concern given the penalty kill.

However, suppressing that physical part of the Oilers game appeared to send those specific players into a bit of a spiral and thier contributions were lessened. Inadvertently, this coaching tactic to help win games in the short term had the opposite effect in the long term.

Jordan

Bag of Pucks,

I’m hopeful the battles are going to be for which players line up where in the lineup.

1RW, 2LW 2RW all of the 3rd and 4th lines…. who is linning up where is written in pencil.

I would like the battles to be internal for icetime, linemates, and special teams time.

I see that as being the best recipe for success this coming season.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Bag of Pucks,

– I actually see lots of “battles”

– if we assume that when this is a cup team pool and Kailer are playing with skill: Rattie (a much better natural goal scorer and pedigree than maroon pre-nhl) had success with mcd. His defensive liabilities are over-blown. As long as he’s playing with Conner and rnh he should be no worse than maroon last year with mcd and “blocks” pool and Kailer

– Reider also has a track record and creates barriers

– in goal you now have koski and Montoya as backup battles as well as the younger ones who “battle”

– gravel makes is harder for Bouchard or bear to just step in.

– Brodziak also provides cover and may be able to move up and down.

– Jar- he’s got to battle to move now, caggs doesn’t have free reign with Aberg

– anyway players play. Need some of reider rattie Aberg lucic rnh strome pool Kailer to be effective with skill. Doesn’t seem that unlikely some will and the rest just details.

Professor Q

Scungilli Slushy:
Bouchard is 2.5 months older than Dobson. Is that really a big deal?

McDavid is 9 months older than Matthews, the ol’ gramps.

Georgexs

“I’ve always seen this as ‘replacing Jordan Eberle’ but with the acquisition of Tobias Rieder perhaps we’re looking at a more complete player.”

Which one of these is Eberle, which one is Rieder … and which one is Nail Yakupov?

Player 1

588 GP
0.75 Pts/GP
2.12 P/60
50.0 CF%
+4.2 Rel CF%
50.3 GF%
+6.6 Rel GF%

Player 2

350 GP
0.39 Pts/GP
1.43 P/60
46.8 CF%
-0.9 Rel CF%
42.3 GF%
-3.4 Rel GF%

Player 3

312 GP
0.38 Pts/GP
1.22 P/60
47.6 CF%
0.6 Rel CF%
42.6 GF%
-2.3 Rel GF%

frjohnk

I dont see much for battles to make the team.

-6D from last year, is pretty much set. Its the 7th D, which looks like Gravol has the inside track. They might keep Bouchard for a few games but he will be sent down.

-Talbot and Koskinen are set. Unless Koskinen lays a turd in preseason, which would then be interesting.

-11 Oilers forwards that finished the season will all be back. Reider and Brodziak will join them. The last spot is between KY, Malone and company. Maybe Rattie does not make the team.

As for roster spot battles in regards to placement on lines and pairings, it will be revolving all year due to injuries and if players are hot/cold. The only constant is that McDavid as long as he is healthy, will be the number 1 C. After that, nothing is for sure.

Georgexs

While we’re at it, which one of these is Brodziak and which one is Letestu (since 07-08)?

Player 1

558 GP
0.38 Pts/GP
1.26 P/60
48.5 CF%
-1.6 Rel CF%
44.8 GF%
-6.7 Rel GF%

Player 2

831 GP
0.34 Pts/GP
1.42 P/60
46.0 CF%
-3.4 Rel CF%
46.3 GF%
-4.0 Rel GF%

Georgexs

(This might not be fair because I don’t know the background or the available options. It’s inspired from the conversation yesterday.)

Leading in to the 15-16 season, PIT signed UFA Matt Cullen to a 1 year $800K contract. Here were his numbers in the period leading up to the signing, from 07-08 to 14-15:

541 GP
0.56 Pts/GP
1.75 P/60
49.3 CF%
+0.1 Rel CF%
51.6 GF%
+4.6 Rel GF%

It looks like Cullen played 3rd to 4th line minutes for PIT in a Cup-winning year. He was then re-signed by PIT to another 1-year contract, this time for $1M. He played 3rd line minutes in another Cup-winning season in 16-17.

I think this is how it’s supposed to work when you’re trying to win. It draws an interesting contrast to the players we targeted this summer. Again, I’m not sure who was available or what their preferences were. I’m not saying PC sucks. Just drawing the distinction between depth players that contribute to winning and depth players that contribute to losing, and the prices that some teams are able to set for both categories.

godot10

OriginalPouzar:
From the last quote above, it seems like McDavid would like some steady linemates. To me, that would mean that Rattie should not start the season as 1RW as I simply don’t think he’s a long term (or even a medium term) option at 1RW.

He is a poor skater and not very good outside of the offensive zone (and was a huge draft on McDavid in the minutes he played with him without Nuge on the ice).

Here is hoping that Jesse (or Kailer) can win that job on merit in camp.

Strome is another solid option but I don’t see it happening.

McDavid’s wingers should be Nugent-Hopkins and Rieder, two proven two-way NHL’ers, Draisaitl has his contract. He has to bear the burden of winger roulette. Hopefully, Jesse will take the 2RW spot and run with it, solving the winger for Draisaitl problem.

Ideally, Jesse and Kailer step up.

Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, Rieder
Khaira, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi
Lucic, Strome, Yamamoto
Aberg, Brodziak, Kassian
Caggiula Rattie.

stephen sheps

Georgexs,

Ebs
Yak
Toby

Georgexs,

Testube
Brodz

But the real question here is what exactly are you trying to demonstrate by showing these career numbers?

Eberle played with the best of the best on a bad team for a number of years, with a bonafide river-pusher alongside him. And then spent this year on yet another bad team with a not-yet-established-but-likely bonafide river-pusher alongside him. His career numbers should look like that.

Yak – rarely played with skill but scored when he did (with Hall, McDavid and Duchene), but when playing in 3rd and 4th line situations with dregs got his head kicked in. Those numbers are a reflection of his linemates and situation throughout his career.

Rieder – played most of his career in Arizona, where good numbers go to die. And despite this his RelCF% is still in the black. Perhaps there is a decent player here after all?

If you’re protecting a lead or killing a penalty, do you send Eberle over the boards? Yak? Nope in both cases. Rieder? Maybe. He’s played in that situation quite a bit in his career. By a ‘more complete player’ it could be that he has a wider range of skills, and if given the chance to play on a skill line may make up for some (not all) of Eberle’s missing offence.

Not sure what you’re getting at with the Letestu vs. Brodziak thing though.

EDIT: I see now that you’ve posted the Cullen thing.

Ok, but what team was Cullen playing with leading up to his time with the Penguins? Well to start there was his time with the Wild and the Predators, both teams known for particularly strong defence, which will make your individual numbers playing 2nd/3rd line minutes look a lot better. I get that you’re trying to suggest that the GM should aim higher (and I don’t disagree – the GM should always try to aim higher with player acquisitions), but it seems a bit disingenuous to cherry-pick certain stats to suggest that the players the Oilers GM did go out and get are poor while ignoring some other situational stats (4v5 and other defensive metrics specifically). Brodziak performs his role reasonably well, Rieder is at least a versatile player who can play in all situations and we don’t yet know the ceiling on his scoring potential.

Georgexs

Georgexs:
(This might not be fair because I don’t know the background or the available options. It’s inspired from the conversation yesterday.)

Leading in to the 15-16 season, PIT signed UFA Matt Cullen to a 1 year $800K contract. Here were his numbers in the period leading up to the signing, from 07-08 to 14-15:

541 GP
0.56 Pts/GP
1.75 P/60
49.3 CF%
+0.1 Rel CF%
51.6 GF%
+4.6 Rel GF%

It looks like Cullen played 3rd to 4th line minutes for PIT in a Cup-winning year. He was then re-signed by PIT to another 1-year contract, this time for $1M. He played 3rd line minutes in another Cup-winning season in 16-17.

I think this is how it’s supposed to work when you’re trying to win. It draws an interesting contrast to the players we targeted this summer. Again, I’m not sure who was available or what their preferences were. I’m not saying PC sucks. Just drawing the distinction between depth players that contribute to winning and depth players that contribute to losing, and the prices that some teams are able to set for both categories.

Actually, PC did sign exactly that type of contract for exactly that type of player last season: Jussi Jokinen. Jokinen went on to play with 4 teams last year. This stuff may be harder than it looks.

OriginalPouzar

I just saw a tweet that Debrusk will be taking over from Remanda doing the color this year – apparently this info was buried somewhere in the Journal today.

I haven’t had a chance to confirm this (and the tweet was random) but that would be great. While I do believe the Remanda knows the game very well, I just don’t like his presentation and am a big fan of Louie.

Oilman99

Lowetide:
OP: I don’t think Rattie is a poor skater but it isn’t a strength either. Ideally Jesse Puljujarvi scores on a 2-on-1 with McDavid early in the preseason and the chem takes them into a successful regular season.

Nobody will be more motivated than Rattie this fall. He has finally had a taste of success,and realizes this is his last big chance.

Bag of Pucks

digger50: I agree, they absolutely need that degree of toughness and pushback to return. Last year however I feel our guys did not get comfortable, they were muzzled by the head coach. He was worried about penalties and I guess that was a valid concern given the penalty kill.

However, suppressing that physical part of the Oilers game appeared to send those specific players into a bit of a spiral and thier contributions were lessened. Inadvertently, this coaching tactic to help win games in the short term had the opposite effect in the long term.

Great point that the dismal PK likely affected their ability to play aggressively.

Bag of Pucks

Kinger_Oil.redux:
Bag of Pucks,

– I actually see lots of “battles”

– if we assume that when this is a cup team pool and Kailer are playing with skill: Rattie (a much better natural goal scorer and pedigree than maroon pre-nhl) had success with mcd. His defensive liabilities are over-blown. As long as he’s playing with Conner and rnh he should be no worse than maroon last year with mcd and “blocks” pool and Kailer

– Reider also has a track record and creates barriers

– in goal you now have koski and Montoya as backup battles as well as the younger ones who “battle”

– gravel makes is harder for Bouchard or bear to just step in.

– Brodziak also provides cover and may be able to move up and down.

– Jar- he’s got to battle to move now, caggs doesn’t have free reign with Aberg

– anyway players play. Need some of reider rattie Aberg lucic rnh strome pool Kailer to be effective with skill. Doesn’t seem that unlikely some will and the rest just details.

For sure, there will be battles up and down the depth chart to secure more icetime and spots higher up the roster, but LT’s making the point that it’s currently shaping up as 24 men for 23 jobs. And that’s what I’d like to see increased by adding a couple PTOs. More competition for jobs and not just icetime.

This team underachieved in a big way last season. There should be more competition in camp and in the preseason. Players like Aberg, Rattie, Yamamoto, Bear, etc. will arrive hungry to make the team. That’s a good thing. I’d like to see that same hunger with players like Caggiula, Kassian, Benning, and Russell as well. Competition kills complacency and that’s what this team needs to get a fast start out of the gates imo.

Georgexs

stephen sheps,

“… but it seems a bit disingenuous to cherry-pick certain stats to suggest that the players the Oilers GM did go out and get are poor while ignoring some other situational stats (4v5 and other defensive metrics specifically).”

You’re right. Please post “some other situational stats” so we can have something to talk about.

Your interpretation of my “cherry-picked” stats is interesting but I’ll let you make a less “disingenuous” case before responding.

godot10

Georgexs: Actually, PC did sign exactly that type of contract for exactly that type of player last season: Jussi Jokinen. Jokinen went on to play with 4 teams last year. This stuff may be harder than it looks.

Cullen can skate. Jokinen can’t. Pro scouts failed to note the drop-off in Jokinen’s skating.

godot10

Oilman99: Nobody will be more motivated than Rattie this fall. He has finally had a taste of success,and realizes this is his last big chance.

Rattie is draft+7, and in all that time has not learned how to play a whit of defense or in his own zone. You are Charlie Brown. Ty Rattie is Lucy with the football.

SwedishPoster

godot10: Cullen can skate.Jokinen can’t. Pro scouts failed to note the drop-off in Jokinen’s skating.

Impossible to miss Jokinens drop off in skating. They must have either thought it was injury related and health would help or that he could contribute anyway. They were wrong on both accounts.

Ryan

Georgexs:
While we’re at it, which one of these is Brodziak and which one is Letestu (since 07-08)?

Player 1

558 GP
0.38 Pts/GP
1.26 P/60
48.5 CF%
-1.6 Rel CF%
44.8 GF%
-6.7 Rel GF%

Player 2

831 GP
0.34 Pts/GP
1.42 P/60
46.0 CF%
-3.4 Rel CF%
46.3 GF%
-4.0 Rel GF%

Obviously Brodziak is the 831 gp. He’s been pretty healthy and in the league as a regular during that time. Letestu, I’d have to honestly look up.

I get your point that there doesn’t appear to be much to choose one over the other based upon how you present the data.

Granted, I think that the career numbers obscure the career arc of a player which would be important info in this instance.

Wouldn’t most bottom six players have similar numbers assuming they didn’t play a lot in the top six or maybe on a really good team? I think Brodziak’s mostly been a forth liner whom I presume has a career of poor zone starts.

Georgexs

godot10: Cullen can skate.Jokinen can’t. Pro scouts failed to note the drop-off in Jokinen’s skating.

Yeah, when I look at it, Jokinen scored 0.41 Pts/GP with 17:25 of ice time in his last season with FLA.

Cullen scored 0.40 in 13:01 of ice time in his last season with NSH before joining PIT.

Jokinen fell off before coming here. Cullen didn’t before going to PIT.

Little Johnny Frostbite

Dunno if this has been mentioned yet, but according to the twitters, Drew Remenda and Louie DeBrusk are trading roles next year! I guess that Remenda will do colour on weekends when DeBrusk is unavailable, but otherwise, we get Louie!

Manna from heaven. Between that, and David Tennant being announced for the Edmonton Expo, EVERYTHING’s coming up Milhouse!

dustrock

OriginalPouzar:
I just saw a tweet that Debrusk will be taking over from Remanda doing the color this year – apparently this info was buried somewhere in the Journal today.

I haven’t had a chance to confirm this (and the tweet was random) but that would be great.While I do believe the Remanda knows the game very well, I just don’t like his presentation and am a big fan of Louie.

Thank the sweet Gord.

Thanks OP.

stephen sheps

Georgexs,

Georges, no need to get defensive (pardon the pun). I was genuinely curious about what you were trying to prove with your thought experiment and was hoping you’d dig a little deeper, but that’s ok. I’ll put in the work. I needed a break from transcribing interviews anyway

Letestu 15-18 PK game states (courtesy corsica & hockey reference)

TOI: 508, GF 8, GA 65, CF 97. CA 889, CF% 9.8, CA/60 102.8, PDO 99.4

Rieder same period

TOI: 437, GF 3, GA 51, CF 115, CA 730, CF% 13.74, CA/60 95.56, PDO 90

Brodziak:

TOI: 409, GF 7, GA 47, CF 82, CA 590, CF% 12.2 CA/60 88.3, PDO 97.5

Teams PK (courtesy Corsica)

Edmonton

TOI: 1207.75, GF 20, GA 147, CF% 11.52 GA/60 7.3, CA/60 101.84 PDO 97.01

Arizona

TOI: 1277.32, GF 12, GA 165, CF% 11.6 GA/60 7.75, CA/60 102.36, PDO 91.65

STL

TOI: 1264.83, GF 9, GA 122, CF% 11.64 GA/60 5.79, CA/60 93.97, PDO 93.16

I’ll happily let you draw your own conclusions, but when looking at the players relative to their own teams over the last few years, Rieder and Brodziak look pretty good as PK forwards, something the Oilers desperately need.

Again, these players aren’t perfect solutions, but based on the original idea (‘a more complete player’) Rieder seems like he fits that bill, if your definition of ‘complete’ includes 2-way & shorthanded game situations.

Brodziak looks like he was a good fit on a team that was already solid on the PK – especially since it looks like over his 3 years on that team, they took a few more penalties than the Oilers did during the same period and allowed fewer goals against. He’s not a world beater, but if I’m reading these numbers correctly (and I might not be), he’s a better PK forward than Letestu was over the same period both individually and relative to his team. And given the Oilers needs, that’s a good thing, right? Other than that, you’re right that not much separates the players. Letestu clearly also has the edge in PP time, seeing as Brodziak has barely played on the PP since he left the Wild, but as we saw last year, Letestu’s PP performance certainly fell back to earth.

Richard S.S.

Professor Q,

Isn’t 2.5 monthsabout 35 games? It should be about who can play now and who must wait.
Isn’t 9 months about 80+ games? It should be about who can play well and who is great.

Washingtron

Lowetide,

I’m sure you’ve discussed it before LT, but was TMac as much of a line blender in SJ as he has been here? Is that just his jam?

Nix

OriginalPouzar:
I just saw a tweet that Debrusk will be taking over from Remanda doing the color this year – apparently this info was buried somewhere in the Journal today.

I haven’t had a chance to confirm this (and the tweet was random) but that would be great.While I do believe the Remanda knows the game very well, I just don’t like his presentation and am a big fan of Louie.

Yesssss

Professor Q

Washingtron:
Lowetide,

I’m sure you’ve discussed it before LT, but was TMac as much of a line blender in SJ as he has been here?Is that just his jam?

He had a lot of Cs and swapped them to-and-fro between lines from time to time, like he does with Team Canada. Usually he stuck with pairs of 2 and swapped a W for certain situations (Pavelski or Couture coming up to 1st line).

Thornton, Marleau, Setoguchi, Pavelski, Couture, Michalek, Grier, Heatley, Cheechoo way back when, etc. were all intermingled. Wilson did the same, though.

OriginalPouzar

Here is the deal from Matheson:

“Louie DeBrusk will apparently be handling colour commentary duties with play-by-play man Kevin Quinn on Edmonton Oilers Sportsnet TV broadcasts this winter with Drew Remenda doing between-periods commentary for their Rogers Place home games. When DeBrusk works a weekend HNIC game, Remenda will be providing colour alongside Quinn.”.

stephen sheps

Georgexs,

Not to pile it on, especially since I know I could have worded my post in a much better way, but by placing those 2 sets of players’ numbers out as you did, what was your end goal? Put another way, I know we use these numbers for a lot of different functions. Some of the time they’re descriptive, others they’re proxies for possession, others still they’re predictive of potential future success, but ultimately the numbers themselves tell us different bits of the stories about the players and the teams. When I asked you initially what you were trying to get at with your comparison, I was very curious what story behind the numbers you were working through. Given that you specifically addressed the idea of ‘a complete player’ and only used more general offence-based stats, it seemed somewhat off to me, which is precisely why I chose to dig into PK situational stats as a response.

I hope you didn’t feel that I was attacking you personally; rather I was hoping to tease out a bit more about your thought process and the story you were trying to tell by setting up that comparison. I really like your posts, always have. And as I’m sure you know at this point, it’s very rare that a numbers post prompts me to chime in. Since I am actually doing research on analytics right now, I tend to not talk too much about it here, instead primarily commenting when the thread goes into music, pop-culture, food, or whisky based conversations. Something about the way you structured this was different…

Woogie63

The Oilers would be settling on Rattie and Rieder playing top 6 minutes.

Given the roster is basically done, I would get my head around:

RNH-McDavid-Yamamoto

Today Yamamoto is an upgrade on Rattie. This line will have speed and skill I could see +35 goal seasons from each player.

Lucic- Draisaitl-Puljujarvi

If you want JP to break out he needs a skilled center, just like Leon and Nail and Taylor and Tkachuk in Calgary…this is a hugely skilled procession line, imagine the cycle against Quinn Hughes. I could see 20-30-30 goals from this line.

Caggiula-Strome-Rieder

10-15-20 goals

Khaira-Brodziak-Kassian

8-8-8

Georgexs

Ryan: Obviously Brodziak is the 831 gp. He’s been pretty healthy and in the league as a regular during that time. Letestu, I’d have to honestly look up.

I get your point that there doesn’t appear to be much to choose one over the other based upon how you present the data.

Granted, I think that the career numbers obscure the career arc of a player which would be important info in this instance.

Wouldn’t most bottom six players have similar numbers assuming they didn’t play a lot in the top six or maybe on a really good team? I think Brodziak’s mostly been a forth liner whom I presume has a career of poor zone starts.

1. Yes, roughly the same players. As for career arc, Brodziak is 34, well into the declining years.

Here’s the median Pts/GP for forwards with 10 or more GP compared to Brodziak’s Pts/GP over his career:

Season, Median Pts/GP, Brodziak Pts/GP

05-06, .41, 0
06-07, .39, .17
07-08, .40, .39
08-09, .40, .34
09-10, .39, .39
10-11, .39, .46
11-12, .34, .54
12-13, .38, .25
13-14, .36, .30
14-15, .38, .27
15-16, .36, .14
16-17, .36, .22
17-18, .39, .41

Last season, he moved up in the lineup and played 13:28 per night in STL after playing 10:48 and 11:42 the prior two seasons.

We had fourth line struggles last year. Maybe Brodziak will perform a little less bad than Letestu, if all things stay the same. But I think, based on his numbers, his expected performance should be in the neighborhood of Letestu.

russ99

I was a huge fan of the annual preseason waiver draft. It served a purpose: It kept teams from collecting too many average level NHL players and if you were short an NHL body and/or had a preseason injury or two, there were players exposed that could help.

OriginalPouzar

Pronman was in Kamloops for the Summer Showcase and watched video of the Czech/Finland and gave his view on the teams and certain players:

Ostap Safin, LW, Edmonton: Safin is an intriguing player due to his athletic tools. He’s 6-foot-5 and skates like he’s 5-foot-11. There was one play during the exhibitions where he came back hard on defense, making up a few feet on his check, delivered a hit, got the puck back and rushed it the other way for a clean entry. With Safin, I think his size/speed combo gets him to the league; my question is whether he has enough skill/offensive IQ to make a dent scoring-wise in the NHL. I think it’s possible, but his offensive flashes are quite inconsistent in terms of those attributes.

He also had Ryan McLeod projected on to Team Canada’s roster which is nice to see as he’s a bubble guy.

Of course Bouchard was listed as he’s a lock. No Rodrigue though (although he only listed two goalies – I think they take three, don’t they?).

As an aside, he did NOT have Phil Kemp in the US starting top 6.

OilClog

Louie!

All they need to do to pile on the misery of intermissions… is somehow involve Garrett.

OriginalPouzar

PJfanofJP,

My understanding is that Filip Prikryl is likely going to play for HC Plzen in Czech leaving Safin and Cajkovic as the two imports.