In 1979, NHL teams had a watershed draft pool to choose from, and some teams procured talent for a generation (Edmonton was one). In Toronto, Punch Imlach was trying to figure out things on the fly:
When our first choice came, one player available was Laurie Boschman. He’d played with Brandon, centering a line with Brian Propp and Ray Allison on the wings. Even though Boschman was the center, I said “Propp got all the goals. I think we should go with the goal scorers.” But the scouts said Boschman did all the work and was the smart one on the line. I’d been in that situation in Buffalo once, picking a kid named Claude Deziel who had scored a lot in junior on a line centered by Pierre Larouche. Later, Deziel never played in the NHL. Larouche did, and scored plenty. So when the Leafs scouts told me Boschman was the guy who made their line work, I had to think of Larouche.
- “Can he skate?” I asked.
- “Good skater,” they said.
So that’s how Boschman was taken and when you figure Propp got 34 goals for Philadelphia and Boschman got 16 for the the Leafs maybe we were wrong in the choice. (Punch Imlach and Scott Young, Heaven and Hell in the NHL).
THE ATHLETIC
Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.
- New Corey Pronman: Edmonton: Complete prospect ranking.
- New Lowetide: Stuart Skinner’s net worth.
- Lowetide: Assessing the cost of the Oilers ill-advised AHL experiment.
- Jonathan Willis: No. 12 prospect—Joel Persson.
- Blackdog Pat: There won’t ever be another Stan Mikita.
- Lowetide: No. 13 prospect—Ostap Safin
- Jonathan Willis: No. 14 prospect—Olivier Rodrigue
- Lowetide: No. 15 prospect—William Lagesson
- Jonathan Willis: No. 16 prospect—Cameron Hebig
- Lowetide: No. 17 prospect—Graham McPhee
- Jonathan Willis: No. 18 prospect—Ryan Mantha
- Lowetide: No. 19 prospect—John Marino
- Jonathan Willis: No. 20 prospect—Tyler Vesel
- Lowetide: Top 20 prospects: Forwards outside the top 20
- Jonathan Willis: Are Hayden Hawkey and Phil Kemp underrated gems?
- Lowetide: Oilers 2013 draft: Two NHL players and one crazy trade.
- Lowetide: Some lingering questions about Oilers 2018 draft and evaluating goalies.
- Lowetide: Oilers training camp: 28 men for 23 jobs.
- Lowetide: Is Evan Bouchard NHL-ready?
- Lowetide: The maturation of Daryl Katz, or heading down a dangerous road?
RYAN MARTINDALE
- Stu MacGregor during Ryan Martindale’s draft weekend: “He was their top line centerman, he played with Toffoli. He was a very solid, big guy. He has to improve his game in some areas, but he has size and skill. His overall commitment needs to be there every night. He’s a big kid that has a lot of talent.”
Los Angeles drafted Tyler Toffoli No. 47 overall, Martindale was plucked at No. 61 by the Edmonton Oilers. There were no expectations (that I recall) about Martindale being the superior player (to Toffoli), but Toronto’s drafting of Boschman in 1979 (over a clearly superior Brian Propp, who scored 28 more goals and 45 more points) was looking like a bad decision by Christmas of that year.
One of the things we can do in the modern era is measure 5-on-5 offense, and even more targeted, 5-on-5 primary points (goals and first assists). I thought about the Imlach quote, and the MacGregor quote, in the hours after the Oilers drafted Ryan McLeod. I reached out to Brock Otten, to ask him about McLeod’s linemates and his answer is worth quoting:
- Brock Otten: “Well let’s just say that the Steelheads throw their lines in a blender most days. Very little consistency from game to game. Heck, they change from period to period. He played with his brother a fair amount in November/December when Michael returned from injury. After the trade deadline, it was Carter, Foget, Tippett, Washkurak, Schwindt, you name it.”
So that gives us some idea about where he played in the lineup and indicates no one was zooming his numbers. Where did he finish among Mississauga forwards in primary points per game?
This is a very encouraging table, despite Ryan McLeod’s position here. First, based on Otten’s verbal we can discount Tippet and Michael McLeod as zooming his results, although they did spend time with the Oilers’ pick.
The primary points per game total (remember, this is 5-on-5 via Prospect-stats.com) posted by Michael McLeod at 17 (0.53) and Owen Tippett at 17 (0.75) isn’t far away from the number each man posted this past season. I know there has been much talk of Kailer Yamamoto not progressing year over year (0.77 to 0.75 in this discipline) and Tippett’s numbers illuminate the Yamamoto progress.
OHL FORWARDS, FIRST TWO ROUNDS 2018 NHL DRAFT
These eight men were chosen inside the first two rounds of the 2018 NHL draft. As you can see, teams went for positional need early and often, passing on promising talent to grab centers and speed early on. I think Edmonton made out very well based on these totals, Florida (Noel) and Los Angeles (Thomas) also getting terrific value.
PRIMARY POINTS PER GAME, OILERS FORWARDS 2013-18 DRAFT
- Connor McDavid. Oh my.
- Leon Draisaitl and Kailer Yamamoto posted solid numbers, seems to be a line in the sand after that before Benson.
- Added to draft year 5-on-5 primary numbers from Jordan Eberle (0.56), Taylor Hall (0.72), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (0.46) and Nail Yakupov (0.71), there should be a clear top-six forward group on the roster at this time.
With less than a week to go, according to our data, this is the current list of drafted College players whom their respective teams must sign by August 15, or risk losing their signing rights and as a result would become a UFA. pic.twitter.com/ww7iOVsvui
— CapFriendly (@CapFriendly) August 9, 2018
I don’t see any obvious options for signing/trade here, Aidan Muir does offer size but injuries impacted his college career. The two high picks (McLeod and Glover) are surprising misses from organizations who usually cash in that area of the draft.
CONCRETE CHANGES
Glen Gulutzan made some comments yesterday (here) and it sounds like the Oilers will have some new wrinkles at 5-on-5. It’s a vague reference to changes, but I do like the idea of moving the puck up rapidly.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
We are live on location today at Rogers Place for the Hlinka-Gretzky tournament! Starting at 10, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:
- Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. We’ll chat about his vacation, the Prospects and the Hlinka-Gretzky.
- JP Shadrick, Jaguars Radio Network. We’ll preview Jacksonville’s season.
We’ll also talk CFL and have plenty from Rogers Place as we set the stage for the big weekend of hockey at the Hlinka-Gretzky. Talk soon!
I’ve read that P1/60 predicts future P/60 better than P/60 due to the high variance in 2nd assist rates
– neat. I had another nick before kinger. Kingervision I think.
– winning hunters tourney when I called the team crap has been a highlight
– calling drai dasshitty a low.
– there was a convo many years ago about formatting and the etiquette etc. Woodguy actually inspired my formatting.
– I once posted a long one after having a few pops with healy Shannon and the rest of the crew in the platinum lounge where they kindly allowed me to buy them a drink and we shot the sh?t about the oil and what ails them.
– it was a wall of text that some poster put into paragraphs
– a single thought per line line: that’s been my thing since.
Hollow victory. Nothing to celebrate about yesterday’s game. And although the score see sawed back and forth, it wasn’t very good hockey. Of course, I’m a homie, but USA got robbed on a bad call.
Was this inaugural comment post written in point form?
I have pulled back several years worth, will place them back into the system in due time.
Lowetide,
Holy shit, Kinger is the elder dragon?
Also, I like to read old posts but it only goes back to 2013.
There have been 746,976 comments before this one on the blog, the first one related to my accidentally deleting the previous blog. It is from March 4, 2007 and from kinger who has been most generous over the years. It went like this:
I happen to use google desktop and have its indexing function on. I have a number of your posts in complete form (271 views cached). Would you like me to email them to you?
September marks my 10th year here. I didn’t really start posting until a few years in though. Plenty of guys were here already
LT who and what was the first comment on your site
Silver Streak,
I was there, too. Fun game to watch, plenty of skill on display. Shocked Russia lost today after watching them dominate the Americans in Red Deer.
It’s a cohort effect like Yak’s year, just not a lot of high end offensive options. If Galch has been healthy that season he’d be an Oiler or on the Islanders.
While the oilers had the 1OVs , they didn’t get lucky in who was available 2 times. Not that Nuge isn’t awesome, just that they could have had 3 franchise and one generational player, 3 of which they would have traded for lesser players:)
Somebody needs to spit in his cornflakes. He just needs more agro. It probably won’t change, but it could. He seems like Pajaarvi to me, big and very fast, more skilled but lacking an attacking mentality.
It seems you are right, Section 8.9(b)(ii):
Eligibility for Play in the League. No Player shall be eligible for play in the League
unless he:
(a) had been claimed in the last Entry Draft, or was ineligible for claim under Section
8.4; or
(b) had been eligible for claim in the last Entry Draft, but was unclaimed, and:
(ii) had played hockey in North America the prior season and was under age
20 at the time of the last Entry Draft, and signed an SPC which was signed
and registered with the League between the conclusion of the Entry Draft
and commencement of the Major Juniors season (except that if such
Player had signed an NHL try-out form, which was signed and registered
with the League during the aforesaid time period, then the deadline for
signing and registering with the League an SPC with such try-out Club
shall be the commencement of the NHL Season).
Oop so much for political correctness! ?I subscribe to the theory fhat once you find the individuals currency the motivation of said individual becomes easy!??
I’m hoping this is the big brother effect I was referring to earlier. He’ll be interesting to watch this year and next without his brother. Is he guilty of subconsciously giving his brother too much room to be the star? Maybe. Brother dynamics can be pretty powerful.
Any player who goes undrafted is eligible to sign an ELC with anyone right after the draft up until his junior training camp starts or he can sign a PTO and then they don’t have to go back to Junior until NHL season starts. At least that is my understanding. So Nielsen and Gogolev could be signed. I think Nielsen is a great fit and he slipped through the draft in a year with a slow start followed by injury followed by really lighting it up. I really hope they sign him. I think he’s a hidden gem.
Hi Lowetide,
Huge fan of the site, visit it all summer long just to stay engaged with the team we all love.
I’m also a fan of the EPL and one of their long time scout sites have started putting wee numbers next to the members names to signify how long they’ve been members.
Not sure what goes into this but with so many hardcore posters here it may be a cool thing?
Cheers!
Never count out the Oilers.
Never.
I hope someone on the team gives him the “bags of money” talk.
Player/coach: “see this area?” *points to the crease*
P/C: “there are giant bags of money sitting here. All you have to do it take the punishment to get and stay here. If you do, you get the giant bags of money. If you don’t then the next guy gets told ” see this area……”
Note: if giant bags of money doesn’t motivate McLeod then find out what does.
Given that his name is McLeod it’s in his DNA to be motivated by giant bags of money.
Yeah he killed the Q as an *almost* 16 year old this year.
Late birthday so he’s not draft eligible until the 2020 draft.
He might be the 2nd best player in the NHL by the time he’s 19.
Montreal might tank for two years to be in the mix…….
Thanks for that Vor.
EDM lacks that player.
One thing that pissed me off to no end is the number of fly-bys of the net this forward crew does.
Stop at the goddamn net!!!!
and there is nothing wrong with that – if a 2nd round pick turns in to an every day NHL player in the middle 6, its a very successful pick.
I truly think the majority of fans have an unrealistic expectation of what most draft picks will become (not necessarily those in this community which is exceptionally knowledgeable).
Even if McLeod was picked where he was generally ranked (bottom third of the first round), the expectation should be about the same.
Yes on Klefbom – he was able to start training at 100% a mere 5 weeks after the surgery – he is healthier than he’s ever been as an Oiler (from accounts).
No, we don’t have a specific update on Sekera (that I know of) but we know the history of this type of surgery and recovery. Its fairly well established that often a player can come back and play 6-8 months removed from the surgery but that it often takes 12-18 months for a more complete recovery which includes mental recovery (i.e. the mental ability to trust the knee, etc.).
Sekera will be a further 6 months removed from the surgery, he will have the off-season to train, he will have a full training camp and he will be without the brace that he was very express limited his mobility big time.
We don’t know how close to 100% he’ll be but we do know (well, we can be pretty sure) that he will be MUCH healthier than what we saw earlier this year.
and 84 of those points were at even strength – the most this century.
How do you sign an 18 year old?
Nice piece – thanks for sharing.
With that said, I must mention that is wasn’t a “literal” billion words, it was a “figurative” billion words – sorry but a massive pet peeve of mine (the mis-use of the word “literal”).
pts2pndr,
Yeehah
That would be fun to watch! Somewhat like Anderson and Messier in the day!
Sometimes a very fast player may appear passive when he has to wait for his wingers to catch up!?
Here is what our goalies faced from the different locations and how the numbers compared to the league average over the last two years
All numbers here are at 5 on 5
16-17
LowDangerSA/60
Cam Talbot 11.89
Jonas Gustavsson 9.74
Laurent Brossoit 11.46
Oiler Average 11.71
League Average 14.66
MedDangerSA/60
Cam Talbot 10.79
Jonas Gustavsson 11.25
Laurent Brossoit 12.58
Oiler Average 10.95
League Average 10.3
HighDangerSA/60
Cam Talbot 6.29
Jonas Gustavsson 4.76
Laurent Brossoit 4.7
Oiler Average 6.08
League Average 5.69
17-18
LDSA/60
Cam Talbot 14.5
Laurent Brossoit 11.6
Oiler Average 14.05
League Average 14.54
MDSA/60
Cam Talbot 11.3
Laurent Brossoit 10.4
Oiler Average 11.2
League Average 10.56
HDSA/60
Cam Talbot 6.8
Laurent Brossoit 5.1
Oiler Average 6.5
League Average 5.75
* I did not put Montayos numbers in as I would have to separate his time from Montreal and Edmonton. Dont feel like doing that as it wouldnt tell us anything we did not already know.
In both years, Oiler goalies saw more shots per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 from the medium and high danger areas than the league average.
Shots against from the home plate area ( or to be really technical, “The Arrow” TM Bruce McCurdy)
16-17
Oilers 17.03
league Average 15.99
17-18
Oilers 17.74
League Average 16.31
If we look at expected goals against from Corisca which measures a weighting of every shot that includes shot location PLUS shot type and the probability that shot will go based on league averages
16-17
Expected Goals Against/60
Oilers 2.41
League Average 2.27
League Best (Wild) 1.91
League Worst ( Ari) 2.68
17-18
Expected Goals Against/60
Oilers 2.61
League Average 2.36
League Best (Wild) 1.95
League Worst (Rangers) 2.8
I want to see McLeod with Connor for a few shifts. I’m selfish like that.
In his hilites I saw some creative thinking in the Ozone rather than linear. Big fan on the possibilities. Improbable Dream? Maybe.
You use shot location when looking at shots.
What numbers do you have from 16-17 and 17-18 that are from the high danger area against Oiler goalies?
I have to dig them up, but both years, I found Oilers goalies saw more rubber from the high danger area than league average. There was not much of a discrepancy over both years when looking at shots against from the high danger area per 60 at 5 on 5.
And I believe shots against from the arrow were about the same from both years.
I believe that at times the coaching staff affords playing time according to draft ranking. A first rounder has to prove he doesn’t belong while a second round or later has to prove early that he does. Given that players may mature at a different rate this seems counter productive to achieving the best results. As fans we also have a tendency to prejudge based on past results! Maybe it is just human nature!
Actually scouting reports on Steve Kelly suggested he was incredibly hard working. There were concerns about his talent pre-draft but not his work ethic.
Nobody doubts Ryan McLeod’s talent. His work ethic, heart and consistency on the other hand are very much in dispute, as are his strength, and many scouts believe he is a perimeter player who won’t get anything done at the NHL level.
So you need to compare McLeod to all the blazingly fast guys the Oilers have drafted who had no character and wouldn’t go to the hard areas. The guys with great talent and fast boots but, “a ten cent brain, and no heart at all.”
Thank you, there was a ton of moving parts to talk about, more than I thought when i started writing
That primary points for Nuge in his draft year is pretty telling. Love the guy but for an overall #1 pick in his draft year, that’s too low.
I am a bit obsessed with Ryan McLeod. That has lead to me collecting scouting reports, statistical info like the heat maps I posted and the info at Canuck’s Army, and my talking to scouts and coaches.
I think Ryan McLeod is a perimeter player most nights and most shifts. Then for whatever reason he decides he wants it and he turns into this all world power forward who owns the other team’s crease. From the perimeter he isn’t very good at all. Inside he is amazing.
Scouts notice the lack of effort. Some decide he can’t get to the hard areas. Others that he won’t.
If he can’t get to the hard areas he was a wasted draft pick.
If he won’t go to the hard areas the Oilers are in with a chance.
McLeod is a lot closer to Steve Kelly, than he is to Ryan Smyth.
Wilde,
Great blog, I really enjoyed your take and share your optimism!
Melvis,
Awesome, thanks!
Our coach asked us to run a largely
3-1-1-1 system all year.
With
4-1-1 perimeter pressure in our own zone.
If we do get pocession.
How often are we transition passing?
How often is NZ trap set up when forward transition separation has occurred?
GA prevention gets you to
playoffs,
advance final 8 & conf final
A potential to cup
With 20-50% superior success rate
compared to equal GF production by rank.
A mistake for forward on offensive attack is not getting a goal.
Dmen and goalie a mistake on defence is giving up a goal.
We’re is the importance in high repeatable baseline ( no mistake) play.
Shouldn’t we be sure we have the most traditional critical def structure.
2-1 vs 3 fwds
Rather than
1-1 vs 3 fwds
All the skate the puck up, attack Oz dmen lovers Seem to Think
1-1 vs 3fwds is great or OK.
I will continue to push
2-1 vs 3
And
1-1 vs 3
You continue to tell me why 400% less affective even goal production offence driven by dmen
Justifies the natural odd man structure from that action.
I have never articulated the natural occurance and criticality of base line play variance in Gf vs GA play.
We have measured players by offence all these years.
Until I broke down the 2 critical cores to defence.
HD density
And
Open shot prevention.
And looked at past playoff
appearance potential
Playoff advancement
Championship success 2 conf champ in the final
Is driven by GA.
My scouting reports strongly suggest you need to get into the hard areas and write a book;-)
No I’m not drunk – not yet anyway.
Another case in point: this snippet from Pronman’s review linked above which I clicked through to after posting the above comment:
“McLeod gains the zone as well as anyone due to his speed, skill and size. Too often, though, once inside the zone, he can be passive, not looking to make quick plays to the net and preferring to be stationary. There are questions about his physical game and how he’ll be able to win battles and get inside versus pros.”
I caught the USA / Russia game in Red Deer on Wednesday….almost a full house…..very surprised at the quality of play….these kids are all 6` or better and 170 lbs of bone and muscle, Russia is soooo
very strong on their skates….and play a very quick crisp disciplined game. I have not yet seen Canada in person, however, I think Russia is the team to beat.
The heat maps show that McLeod is effective when he gets in close to the net, or perhaps that he is INeffective from outside.
Funny thing, I read quite a few scouting reports on this guy and many of them criticized him as being something of a perimeter player who needed to do more to get the hard areas. Which maybe just speaks to those consistency issues you mention.
VOR,
Have your thoughts on McLeod evolved somewhat, VOR?
VOR,
How would one know if he has blinding speed, though, if they can’t see? ?
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/prospect-interest-411-ryan-mcleod/
I don’t get too optimistic about any prospects until they turn pro.
Most juniors that get drafted do pretty damn well in their their last couple of draft years.
Seeing what they do in a pro training camp with a more extended look, and their results in the AHL really tends to separate the wheat form the chaff.
Ryan McLeod is an unique player.
He has blinding speed, McLeod is also big, really strong, and has high hockey IQ. He is capable of dominating at both ends of the ice. Not to mention he has a plus shot with a very quick release.
None of which makes him unique.
He has real consistency issues. And that doesn’t make him unique.
Then you look at his heat maps and you see it. His goals come in the paint by and large as do his shots. It looks remarkably like Ryan Smyth’s heat map. Okay, so he is a dazzlingly skater who goes to the hardest areas of the ice. This shows up again in the fact he is a puck retrieval genius.
But while that makes him unusual I wouldn’t say unique. But if you look at the heat map of his primary assists. It is a bright blob of colour in the crease.
Ryan McLeod is a blazing fast two way player who loves the hard areas. He loves those places because planted in the crease he can use his magic hands to create major offence. If the kid wants it he will be a dominant NHL player.
jtblack,
My optimism for McLeod (if I have any) is that there may be a chance he has been held back by playing in his brother’s shadow. This year, without his brother and next year in pro with a team with no connection to his family will be very telling for me. I think playing on the same team as your brother could have a huge impact (positives and negatives). Without considering that, his production is very underwhelming. His stored will always be an asset, though, so he may have to become a Cogliano to make it.