The Truth at 20

Since the turn of the century,  the Oilers have had many forward prospects arrive at the pro level (age 20) and spend some or all of that rookie pro campaign in the AHL. In the first decade, Jarrett Stoll and Kyle Brodziak emerged as bona fide NHL players, with higher picks Rob Schremp, Marc Pouliot and Jani Rita unable to negotiate the rapids.

So far this decade, Magnus Paajarvi, Tyler Pitlick and Jujhar Khaira have cobbled together the foundation of NHL careers, although none of the three plays as prominent a role as Stoll and only Pitlick can be projected as being on par with Brodziak (and there’s miles to go).

Since moving to Bakersfield, Edmonton hasn’t had a lot of success. Kyle Platzer is the only rookie at 20 to move the needle offensively in the three seasons of the Condors. Are things about to change?

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

AHL FORWARDS AT 20, 2000-10

  1. Rob Schremp (06-07 SWB Penguins) 69gp, 17-36-53 .768ppg Schremp had a tough first year pro, getting benched a few times and was a healthy scratch a few times too. His coach did have some nice things to say about him but he was always dogged by skating and coverage issues.
  2. Jarret Stoll (02-03 Hamilton Bulldogs) 76gp, 21-33-54 .711ppg The two things I remember about Stoll in the AHL are a goal he scored maybe 5 seconds after the faceoff at center-ice and that the “shared” Habs/Oil team that year was a beauty. Stoll played with really good players and had an excellent season, which he built upon to become a solid NHL player.
  3. Marc Pouliot (05-06 Hamilton Bulldogs) 65gp, 15-30-45 .692ppg Pouliot played on a shared team (like Stoll) as a rookie pro and put up excellent results. Of all the kids who’ve played extended AHL time this century for the Oilers, he’s the guy who I thought could have helped them in the two-way role. It never happened for him.
  4. Jean Francois Jacques (05-06 Hamilton Bulldogs) 65gp, 24-20-44 .677ppg Jacques had a helluva pro debut and his size and speed made him a promising prospect. He lost a lot of momentum due to back injuries and may have lacked ‘hockey sense’. He is most famous for not getting a point as an NHL rookie in 2006-07 (in 37 games).
  5. Kyle Brodziak (04-05 Edmonton Roadrunners) 56gp, 6-26-32 .571ppg Brodziak has a nice combination of size and skill. His AHL debut at 20 came on a very poor offensive team, and he built on that season (that team couldn’t score a lick), finally emerging as a legit NHL player about the time Edmonton traded him.
  6. Jani Rita (01-02 Hamilton Bulldogs) 76gp, 25-17-42 .553ppg I thought Jani Rita would make it. He had the one thing Paajarvi didn’t (a great shot) but not enough of the stuff Paajarvi had to impress Craig MacTavish.
  7. Slava Trukhno (07-08 Springfield Falcons) 64GP, 14-21-35 .547ppg I loved his passing, Trukhno could really find the lane. He had a nice debut but was a bit of wide body skater.

AHL FORWARDS AT 20, 2011-18

  1. Magnus Paajarvi (11-12 Oklahoma City Barons) 34gp, 7-18-25 .735ppg Paajarvi played in the NHL at 19, so this is after that teenage season. Great speed, good defensive instincts, can’t score enough to move up the depth chart, he has carved out a career as a depth player.
  2. Teemu Hartikainen (10-11 Oklahoma City Barons) 66gp, 17-25-42 .636ppg The big Finn was a pure delight and the first 20-year old AHL forward in a couple of years to show up on the radar. He was a little shy on speed but I loved his hands and spirit.
  3. Bogdan Yakimov (14-15 Oklahoma City Barons) 57gp, 12-16-28 .491 ppg He showed real promise but left for the KHL in the middle of his entry deal and hasn’t been heard from since. Speed would probably have caught up to him but it would be nice to see these things play out ala Detroit.
  4. Phil Cornet (10-11 Oklahoma City Barons) 60gp, 7-16-23 .383ppg He looked like a tweener from the start, I always liked his spirit. Made it to the NHL for two games.
  5. Tyler Pitlick (11-12 Oklahoma City Barons) 62gp, 7-16-23 .371ppg He scored pretty well in his WHL season, many of the goals at even strength. The Oilers slow played his AHL rookie year and he got hurt too, those injuries impacting his pro career through today. He made it and the Oilers got a little bit of his career before he left via free agency.
  6. Kyle Platzer (15-16 Bakersfield Condors) 48gp, 6-11-17 .354 Platzer was a rather obscure draft pick in 2013, didn’t play a lot for the London Knights in his draft year. He has a good two-way resume but lack of offense has impacted his pro career.
  7. Ryan Martindale (12-13 Oklahoma City Barons). 41gp, 6-8-14 .341 He showed well in a couple training camps, you could see the size being an advantage and he could pass the puck. He didn’t move the needle enough and was dealt in a minor league trade during his entry deal.
  8. Curtis Hamilton (11-12 Oklahoma City Barons). 41gp, 5-6-11 .268ppg. A wildly disappointing pro debut based on his final junior season, Hamilton never did get untracked during his entry level deal.
  9. Jujhar Khaira (14-15 Oklahoma City Barons) 51gp, 4-6-10 .196ppg. He didn’t play much at all during his first year pro, but increased his production and gained more playing time through his Condors career. He is now at a point where the Oilers may have a successful ‘draft and develop’ forward, just a matter of how long he can hold the job.
  10. Travis Ewanyk (13-14 Oklahoma City Barons) 68gp, 7-5-12 .176ppg. Ewanyk had some nice things but the offense in junior suggested he wasn’t going to bring enough to pro hockey.
  11. Mitch Moroz (14-15 Oklahoma City Barons) 66gp, 5-4-9 .136ppg. Big man came off injury at the end of the Memorial Cup and then had some issues in the AHL, among them ice time. Like Ewanyk, he was not a strong NHL candidate based on offense in junior.
  12. Kale Kessy (13-14 Oklahoma City Barons) 54gp, 2-4-6 .111ppg The physical winger was unable to score in pro hockey, again predictable based on his junior numbers.

AHL FORWARDS AT 20, 2018-19

  1. Jesse Puljujarvi. It’s unlikely JP will spend time in Bakersfield this winter but if he does he should flatten the opposition by Halloween.
  2. Kailer Yamamoto. I’m inclined to say the same thing about Yamamoto, if he goes to Bakersfield it is unlikely to be a long stay and the points should pile up. He might eclipse Rob Schremp’s .768 points per game (JP likely would too, less of a chance the Finn plays in the AHL).
  3. Tyler Benson. The Oilers are unlikely to slow-play him, it’s a matter of how many plays he’ll make. My guess is he’ll score in the range of .700 ppg (say 35 points in 50 games) but that will depend on power-play opportunities.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

93 Responses to "The Truth at 20"

  1. leadfarmer says:

    There’s no way that JP gets sent down especially with our winger depth. That would definitely mean he’s getting traded

  2. leadfarmer says:

    I do hope Yamamoto spends the season in Ahl with a cup of coffee in the bigs. With his size stepwise increase in competition may be beneficial and taking an elbow to the head from TkaCooke won’t help his development. Not unusual for these very small players to get AHL time.
    With all that said he probably starts the season on Mcdavids or Draisatl wing

  3. Westchester Oil says:

    Relatively small sample size here, but the correlation between AHL and NHL scoring levels seems pretty low. JF Jacques and a couple others were big underachievers but Khaira looks like a significant overachiever.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Westchester Oil:
    Relatively small sample size here, but the correlation between AHL and NHL scoring levels seems pretty low. JF Jacques and a couple others were big underachievers but Khaira looks like a significant overachiever.

    In staring at these prospects’ numbers for many years, I will say that imo injury is the biggest factor when viewing “disappointments” like Jacques.

  5. hunter1909 says:

    Premise Statement: Any time Oilers draft anyone European it turns out to be a wasted pick. The team is run by parochial thinking(non-Canadians are 90% all crap) management, and continues to be influenced by this incredibly corrupting situation of having FIRED EMPLOYEES remaining in the office to passively wreck havoc.

    Evidence: Yakupov, Rita, Salmalailen(sp lol), Niinnimaki(sp), Shlepeshev(sp), Pajaarvi-Svenson(sp)…

    Possible contrary evidence: Klefbom(top 4 often injured(another argument lol) defenceman, Hemsky.

    My estimation of this being either True/Untrue:

    80% True.

    Lowetide posters:

    Do you agree/disagree with my premise?

    What’s YOUR True/Untrue percentage?

  6. hunter1909 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I do hope Yamamoto spends the season in Ahl with a cup of coffee in the bigs.With his size stepwise increase in competition may be beneficial and taking an elbow to the head from TkaCooke won’t help his development.Not unusual for these very small players to get AHL time.
    With all that said he probably starts the season on Mcdavids or Draisatl wing

    AHL 100% until he proves his professional credentials, please.

  7. hunter1909 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I do hope Yamamoto spends the season in Ahl with a cup of coffee in the bigs.With his size stepwise increase in competition may be beneficial and taking an elbow to the head from TkaCooke won’t help his development.Not unusual for these very small players to get AHL time.
    With all that said he probably starts the season on Mcdavids or Draisatl wing

    The GM loves to keep expectations at rock bottom(2016 he didn’t expect the team do go far in playoffs, 2017-18 was a development year), which helps him cover his tracks as the team lurches along like always.

    Reminds me of a haystack full of mice.

    “Too many chiefs, and not enough indigenous people”

  8. jm363561 says:

    “Kailer Yamamoto. I’m inclined to say the same thing about Yamamoto, if he goes to Bakersfield it is unlikely to be a long stay and the points should pile up.”

    More than any other player I am looking forward to seeing how Yamo does at camp. However, I’m inclined to say if we had anything like reasonable RW depth you would not be inclined to say this.

  9. Lowetide says:

    jm363561:
    “Kailer Yamamoto. I’m inclined to say the same thing about Yamamoto, if he goes to Bakersfield it is unlikely to be a long stay and the points should pile up.”

    More than any other player I am looking forward to seeing how Yamo does at camp. However, I’m inclined to say if we had anything like reasonable RW depth you would not be inclined to say this.

    One of the real curios for me among Oilers fans right now is the belief that Kailer Yamamoto is unable to push at age 20. He’s not going to get to 6 feet and he isn’t going to play at 190. He isn’t playing in 1985. The numbers (as we’ve discussed this week) are just real good.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    I can’t imagine Puljujarvi getting re-assigned to Bakersfield. I believe he’s an NHL player on merit, not on lack of depth. I am confident he will take a nice step offensively this year as many European drafted players have in their draft plus 3 years.

    Yamamoto could very well make the NHL roster as I have little doubt he will show well in the early pre-season games that are played before the team heads over-seas (those early games, with half NHL rosters, are prime for tweeners to produce).

    I think Yamamoto’s roster spot could be a function of Bouchard being on the roster or not as I think they may go with 8D if Bouchard is on the roster and Yamamoto may get the axe for the Condors until Evan is eventually re-assigned.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    Do we know what the expanded roster limits for Europe actually are?

    Is the team allowed to have more than 23 on its official roster? I would think that isn’t the case (and I don’t think the Oilers could afford more even if they were allowed given the tightness to the cap).

    Is it being allowed to carry more players with the team, non-roster players that can be added to the roster in case of injury?

  12. Melvis says:

    hunter1909,

    C’mon man… Parochial is as parochial does. If you can’t take a minute to look up the spelling on a player’s name…

  13. tileguy says:

    Jujhar sure dosen’t get a lot of love around here. My prediction (based on my eye and 3 cups of koolaid) is 30 pts and a solid career on the 3rd line, perhaps even spot duty on the 2nd.

  14. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I do hope Yamamoto spends the season in Ahl with a cup of coffee in the bigs.With his size stepwise increase in competition may be beneficial and taking an elbow to the head from TkaCooke won’t help his development.Not unusual for these very small players to get AHL time.
    With all that said he probably starts the season on Mcdavids or Draisatl wing

    It won’t take much to beat out Caggiula, Rattie, and Aberg.

  15. Lowetide says:

    godot10: It won’t take much to beat out Caggiula, Rattie, and Aberg.

    Also, they like him. Same cast a year ago and KY won the job. That said, I think they’re going to try to do the right thing

  16. Melvis says:

    Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning.

    It’s a saturday morning in August and pointed debate can wait. The garden bounty and the 26/30 shrimp cry out for the perfect tempura batter.

    Lets see. What’s the sizzling musical accompaniment gonna be. OK. Bebop it is.

    “What It Is.” 70’s nomenclature accompanied by the three phase handshake.

  17. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    It’s not about his skills it’s about his size and stepwise increase in level of difficulty with gaining self preservation skills. There is a huge jump in difficulty between junior and NHL. The head hunters in AHL tend to be just a bit slower than the guys in NHL allowing him to hone in his evasion skills.
    We’ve talked for years about the Detroit model of development but once again we don’t have the patience for it. (And yes before someone says the Detroit model isn’t what it was once cracked up to be when we started having this discussion on this blog it was, to tell you how long we’ve been having this discussion for)
    Is Yamamoto going to take a shot to the back of his head from TkaCooke at some point. Yes. But this way you protect him during prime development years, and give him some time to develop skills to minimize the damage

  18. VOR says:

    Lowetide: One of the real curios for me among Oilers fans right now is the belief that Kailer Yamamoto is unable to push at age 20. He’s not going to get to 6 feet and he isn’t going to play at 190. He isn’t playing in 1985. The numbers (as we’ve discussed this week) are just real good.

    I don’t think it is curious. I think it is simple. There is a group of posters who think he is too small. They think, whether they will admit it or not that Yamamoto should never have been drafted.

    There is a group of posters here who think the Oilers using Yamamoto as 1 RW at the start of last year cost the team valuable points. They are worried he will be given the same role again this year. Without earning it. Thus dooming the Oilers to another season out of the playoffs.

    Then there is a group of posters who think Yamamoto should enter camp on a level playing field. They think he needs to earn a role. Part of earning it is about tearing up the AHL.

    I think Yamamoto should be playing sheltered NHL minutes with real pros. For me it is about putting the kid in a position to succeed. Honestly, I’d be tempted to go for unicorns and play him with Brodziak and Kharia. He’d be a mirror image Glencross if you like.

    I am not sure what your position is.

  19. oilersjo says:

    Good Day. I wonder why some see the AHL as a penalty box for under performance. It is like many people who bad mouth Community colleges. Both are very legitimate learning centers for those who for whatever reason fail to make the university grade. It seems as though these young men are looked upon jump from junior to the NHL right away. I watch a lot of Raiders hockey and have watched many young men burn out. Eberle was sent back twice and it was the best thing for him. First round picks should experience the hunger of the chase of excellance.

  20. northerndancer says:

    VOR: I don’t think it is curious. I think it is simple. There is a group of posters who think he is too small. They think, whether they will admit it or not that Yamamoto should never have been drafted.

    There is a group of posters here who think the Oilers using Yamamoto as 1 RW at the start of last year cost the team valuable points. They are worried he will be given the same role again this year. Without earning it. Thus dooming the Oilers to another season out of the playoffs.

    Then there is a group of posters who think Yamamoto should enter camp on a level playing field. They think he needs to earn a role. Part of earning it is about tearing up the AHL.

    I think Yamamoto should be playing sheltered NHL minutes with real pros. For me it is about putting the kid in a position to succeed. Honestly, I’d be tempted to go for unicorns and play him with Brodziak and Kharia. He’d be a mirror image Glencross if you like.

    I am not sure what your position is.

    I played hockey and sports to win. But I also played for fun. Fun means many things.

    I watch hockey for fun. Fun can include my team winning. But fun for me includes creating a narrative, or watching a narrative unfold. There are many narratives in any game of hockey, in a season.

    The yamamoto narrative is engaging and engagement is entertainment. Almost biblical, David and Goliath stuff. Will he get crushed before he smotes the big guy, the big goal. Does he have what it takes?

    Lots of narratives. Pick one and chase it down.

    I used to skip university classes to go watch the thoroughbreds at Marquis Downs in Saskatoon. I would take 4 dollars. Bet 2 bucks on a colour or name I liked and cheer like hell for them down the straight. I made up my own stories to help me figure it out. I knew the records might not support my choice but I didn’t care. It was my horse. Sometimes they won. More often than not it was off to become dog food.

    Go Yamamoto Go. The dogs are chasing you.

  21. Genjutsu says:

    Lowetide: One of the real curios for me among Oilers fans right now is the belief that Kailer Yamamoto is unable to push at age 20. He’s not going to get to 6 feet and he isn’t going to play at 190. He isn’t playing in 1985. The numbers (as we’ve discussed this week) are just real good.

    I fully expect the 1 2 RW depth will be Puljujarvi and Yamamoto. I just don’t see an option superior to them on the team if leon plays C

  22. Bag of Pucks says:

    My take is not that the scouts should avoid drafting smaller players like Yamamoto. It’s that if all the other tools are comparable, I lean to the larger prospect. A smaller player will have more difficulties in the high traffic areas. It shouldn’t be heresy to suggest that. The NHL is a physical league.

  23. leadfarmer says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    My take is not that the scouts should avoid drafting smaller players like Yamamoto. It’s that if all the other tools are comparable, I lean to the larger prospect. A smaller player will have more difficulties in the high traffic areas. It shouldn’t be heresy to suggest that. The NHL is a physical league.

    Yamamoto had better numbers than the guy taken #2 OV. The only reason he fell was his size. If he was 6’1 190 lbs he would have been picked top 10

  24. Georgexs says:

    Lowetide: One of the real curios for me among Oilers fans right now is the belief that Kailer Yamamoto is unable to push at age 20. He’s not going to get to 6 feet and he isn’t going to play at 190. He isn’t playing in 1985. The numbers (as we’ve discussed this week) are just real good.

    I thought it was very unusual for the Oilers to play him out of TC last season, given his draft position and his dimensions. Not a lot of teams have done that with similar players. One year later, it’s less unusual. I see your argument. Yamamoto is a skill guy by the numbers. Skill guys show up in the league earlier.

  25. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    I’m in the camp that thinks goal scorers need to score a lot in their development to become goalscorers. I would much rather him score a bunch of goals in Bakersfield then put up 25 points on Brodziaks wing

  26. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: One of the real curios for me among Oilers fans right now is the belief that Kailer Yamamoto is unable to push at age 20. He’s not going to get to 6 feet and he isn’t going to play at 190. He isn’t playing in 1985. The numbers (as we’ve discussed this week) are just real good.

    Many Oiler fans have a view of the game that would make Brian Burke look like New Age Softie

  27. PunjabiOil says:

    There was an amateur scout that described Robbie Schemp, after his 20 year old season as follows:

    “There are players that win battles. There are players that lose battles. Robbie Schremp has no interest in battles”

    Damning indictment

  28. Munny says:

    PunjabiOil,

    My fingers are crossed in the hope that McLeod is not that guy.

    Yamo, on the other hand, has an entire fleet of battle.

  29. Bag of Pucks says:

    leadfarmer: Yamamoto had better numbers than the guy taken #2 OV.The only reason he fell was his size.If he was 6’1 190 lbs he would have been picked top 10

    And if he doesn’t succeed in the NHL, those clubs that avoided him because of his size will have been validated. Let’s hope he proves them wrong. The Oilers really need the RW depth chart to sort itself out this season.

    Realistic question, if Yamamoto becomes a productive scorer in the NHL but misses significant time because of injuries, is that preferable to a player who’s more durable but slightly less productive?

  30. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I can’t imagine Puljujarvi getting re-assigned to Bakersfield. I believe he’s an NHL player on merit, not on lack of depth. I am confident he will take a nice step offensively this year as many European drafted players have in their draft plus 3 years.

    Yamamoto could very well make the NHL roster as I have little doubt he will show well in the early pre-season games that are played before the team heads over-seas (those early games, with half NHL rosters, are prime for tweeners to produce).

    I think Yamamoto’s roster spot could be a function of Bouchard being on the roster or not as I think they may go with 8D if Bouchard is on the roster and Yamamoto may get the axe for the Condors until Evan is eventually re-assigned.

    As Leadfarm said, it would be more beneficial if Yammy gets a season in the AHL to learn how to play against men.

  31. leadfarmer says:

    Bag of Pucks: And if he doesn’t succeed in the NHL, those clubs that avoided him because of his size will have been validated. Let’s hope he proves them wrong. The Oilers really need the RW depth chart to sort itself out this season.

    Realistic question, if Yamamoto becomes a productive scorer in the NHL but misses significant time because of injuries, is that preferable to a player who’s more durable but slightly less productive?

    Just because a guy is bigger doesn’t mean he is healthier. If it wasn’t for a 2 game suspension a 5’10 guy would have played his 11th complete season in a row this year.
    As far as the puck is concerned too early to tell but there definitely is some quality prospects in his range like Tolvanen Vesalainen, Chytil, Frost. Time will tell

  32. Oilman99 says:

    Lowetide: One of the real curios for me among Oilers fans right now is the belief that Kailer Yamamoto is unable to push at age 20. He’s not going to get to 6 feet and he isn’t going to play at 190. He isn’t playing in 1985. The numbers (as we’ve discussed this week) are just real good.

    The numbers were posted playing with teenagers, not men. A lot of smaller players have difficulty competing against larger , more experienced players. That said I don’t think there is any lack of desire with Yamamoto wanting to prove the naysayers wrong.

  33. Georgexs says:

    Eric Tulsky that made the argument for primary points (and against secondary assists) in this post in 2011:

    https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2011/3/15/2046512/simplify-scoring-drop-secondary-assists

    Its conclusion? Secondary assists are “noise”; they should be excluded when evaluating a forward’s offensive performance. Rely on the rate at which a forward generates primary points. Be cautious of big and small numbers for secondary assists.

    Travis Yost wrote on this topic just last month:

    https://www.tsn.ca/the-noise-surrounding-secondary-assists-1.1134501

    I don’t know if Tulsky still swears by this work or if that’s the type of advice he’s giving the Hurricanes. It’s illuminating to read his projections for Giroux, Stepan, and Benn at the end of his article. Life comes at you fast.

    I won’t get into an extended critique here or present a whole ton of numbers. It’s easier to just think about why Tulsky saw what he did in the data and then to think about whether the data was really telling him what he interpreted it to be telling him.

    A goal gives us a record of who touched the puck before it went into the net and, optionally, a record of the two players who touched the puck before that.

    We know that goals are scored mostly from closer to the net. That’s where the forwards are. Forwards score most of the goals.

    Some goals are unassisted. So there will be fewer primary assists than goals.

    Taking away the goal scorer, we have 4 players left on the ice who can claim the primary assist. Because most goals are scored by forwards, there are most likely 2 forwards and 2 defensemen left. Forwards will still claim a greater share of primary assists because most of the action happens closer to the net. But the forward share of primary assists is going to be lower than the forward share of goals.

    Repeat this process for secondary assists.

    There are fewer secondary assists than primary assists. And because forwards claim the majority of goals and primary assists, by the time we come around to allocating the second assist, we’re often left with one forward and two defensemen we can assign it to. Just by randomness, defensemen should be getting into the act more by this point.

    So there are going to be 1) fewer secondary assists than primary assists to go around for forwards and 2) defensemen are going to have a greater share of the secondary assists.

    The smaller secondary assist numbers for forwards lead to more year over year variance. If you check the year over year correlation for A260, like Tulsky did, you’re going to find that it’s low, which is what Tulsky found. But, instead of seeing it as a smaller numbers, higher variance problem, he interpreted that to mean scoring secondary assists isn’t a talent and that secondary assists should be excluded from a forward’s scoring total. He backed it up by looking at the year over year A260 rates for forwards who switch teams.

    He could’ve done things differently. I’ll get into that later but, for now, here’s the breakdown of the share of 5v5 offensive stats for forwards in the past season.

    Stat, Forward share

    G, 83%
    A1, 74%
    A2, 67%
    A, 71%
    P, 76%
    P1, 79%

    And here’s the % of goals scored that had a primary assist, and the % that had a secondary assist:

    A1, 93%
    A2, 70%

    As I’ve said, fewer secondary assists to go around and lower share of secondary assists for forwards.

    3 out of 10 goals scored had 2 or fewer offensive players touching the puck before it went in.

    I really wish we had some record of A3’s. It would really help to know if chains of 3 or fewer interacting players are responsible for the majority of goals scored. Based on the drop off from one assist to two assist goals, I’d bet yes.

  34. Bling says:

    VOR,

    KY is key to this season and I love the player.

    However, I would rather send him down for 5, 10, 20 games to start the season, play him 20+ minutes a game in all situations and call him up to stay (in the top 6) rather than have him up, watch him struggle, get demoted to the A, and then work his way back up again.

    The yo-yo act isn’t helpful or time efficient for either the org or the player. See Puljujarvi, Jesse.

    The fact remains that KY’s age 19 season in the WHL wasn’t a big growth year for him. Most other guys of his player type who make the jump at 20 from the Dub had bigger years than he did (e.g. Brayden Point).

    Being a legit first line or second line RW at age 20 is not easy. If KY can do it, that’s amazing, but I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect that right out of the gate.

  35. Richard S.S. says:

    I understand the concerns about Kailer Yamamoto’s size. The chance of suffering an unnecessary injury are just as great in Junior or the AHL as it is in the NHL. Pardon the language, but assholes on skates still exist in hockey so he will get hurt. The talent level is extreme, he’s just 3” and 30 lbs too light. The questions is, “Can he make a difference at the NHL level? If yes, he’s on the Roster this fall. If there is any doubt, ask this question, “Who is he better than, now?” This is where he makes the Roster. I’ve thought about it a lot and believe he should get his chance now.

  36. wood99 says:

    I think KY has the hockey savvy to play with either McDavid or Draisaitl. To me the key will be can he finish enough. He is very smart in 1 on 1 battles and surprisingly wins more often then not. I think his shot needs work though…just my 2 cents😏

  37. hunter1909 says:

    Melvis:
    hunter1909,

    C’mon man… Parochial is as parochial does. If you can’t take a minute to look up the spelling on a player’s name…

    I only remember these crazy name spellings until the player leaves the team. Then I forget.

    For example, I’m pretty sure I can spell JP’s name correctly.

  38. hunter1909 says:

    oilersjo: Both are very legitimate learning centers for those who for whatever reason fail to make the university grade.

    Not wanting to piss on your parade, but these days universities are more into high entrance fees and communist indoctrination. My old Boston Alma mater charges nearly $70k a year, where I paid $3k and still had trouble paying that back. Today one assumes you just go into a casino and bet everything you own on red – twice.

    Most “graduates’ emerge with a shitload of unpayable debt, since their degrees are often useless in real life.

    Starbucks is full of university graduates, making coffee, wtf.

  39. hunter1909 says:

    Richard S.S.: The chance of suffering an unnecessary injury are just as great in Junior or the AHL as it is in the NHL. Pardon the language, but assholes on skates still exist in hockey so he will get hurt.

    I’ve taken a punch from someone my size, and one from someone 30 pounds heavier and believe me there is a difference.

  40. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Lowetide,

    It’s not about his skills it’s about his size and stepwise increase in level of difficulty with gaining self preservation skills.There is a huge jump in difficulty between junior and NHL.The head hunters in AHL tend to be just a bit slower than the guys in NHL allowing him to hone in his evasion skills.
    We’ve talked for years about the Detroit model of development but once again we don’t have the patience for it.(And yes before someone says the Detroit model isn’t what it was once cracked up to be when we started having this discussion on this blog it was, to tell you how long we’ve been having this discussion for)
    Is Yamamoto going to take a shot to the back of his head from TkaCooke at some point.Yes.But this way you protect him during prime development years, and give him some time to develop skills to minimize the damage

    The other side of the coin as LT has pointed out before is that if Yama can’t crack the team this season it is a bad omen for his future. He has to be a top 6 to play in the NHL and he has to be high skill at his size. Players like that aren’t in the AHL for long. He’ll have to learn fast, although I’m sure evading bigger players isn’t new to him. Sink or swim.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    There’s no way that JP gets sent down especially with our winger depth.That would definitely mean he’s getting traded

    I don’t imagine he gets sent down – sure the winger depth is a factor but, moreso for me, is the fact that he’s an actual NHL player on merit and deserves to be in the NHL.

    He should be even better this year.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    I do hope Yamamoto spends the season in Ahl with a cup of coffee in the bigs.With his size stepwise increase in competition may be beneficial and taking an elbow to the head from TkaCooke won’t help his development.Not unusual for these very small players to get AHL time.
    With all that said he probably starts the season on Mcdavids or Draisatl wing

    I see lots of opinions on various players and where they need to play this season but I would think it makes sense to see where they are in training camp and preseason. Sure, Yamamoto may very well need AHL time but I’m not sure how we know this given we haven’t seen him play against NHL competition in 10 months (and after a full season of hockey).

    For all we know, he’s come along ways and is ready.

    I think he could take an elbow to the head just as easily in the AHL as he could in the NHL, in fact, its probably more likely in the AHL where there are a bunch of tweeners trying to make names for themselves and a bunch of lesser talents.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: In staring at these prospects’ numbers for many years, I will say that imo injury is the biggest factor when viewing “disappointments” like Jacques.

    The worst players I ever say at the NHL level. I think I posted this when his name came up a few days ago, so I apologize for repeating myself (yes, again), but I remember a play he made in the neutral zone where he got the puck on the boards, gained the red line and dumped it in – I thought to myself “that’s the best play JFJ has every made in the NHL” – I meant it to as I had seen every one of his shifts.

  44. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    If you check the year over year correlation for A260, like Tulsky did, you’re going to find that it’s low, which is what Tulsky found. But, instead of seeing it as a smaller numbers, higher variance problem, he interpreted that to mean scoring secondary assists isn’t a talent and that secondary assists should be excluded from a forward’s scoring total. He backed it up by looking at the year over year A260 rates for forwards who switch teams.

    The fact that 2nd assists have a low population and a high variance problem is why not including them gives you better predictions about future scoring.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909:
    Premise Statement: Any time Oilers draft anyone European it turns out to be a wasted pick. The team is run by parochial thinking(non-Canadians are 90% all crap) management, and continues to be influenced by this incredibly corrupting situation of having FIRED EMPLOYEES remaining in the office to passively wreck havoc.

    Evidence: Yakupov, Rita, Salmalailen(sp lol), Niinnimaki(sp), Shlepeshev(sp), Pajaarvi-Svenson(sp)…

    Possible contrary evidence: Klefbom(top 4 often injured(another argument lol) defenceman, Hemsky.

    My estimation of this being either True/Untrue:

    80% True.

    Lowetide posters:

    Do you agree/disagree with my premise?

    What’s YOUR True/Untrue percentage?

    True percentage – 0%

    2016 playoff run: top 3D – Klefbom (Sweden), Larsson (Sweden), Sekera (Slovakia)

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    tileguy:
    Jujhar sure dosen’t get a lot of love around here. My prediction (based on my eye and 3 cups of koolaid) is 30 pts and a solid career on the 3rd line, perhaps even spot duty on the 2nd.

    I don’t think that is necessarily koolaid predictions considering he had 21 points last year and, at this time last year, wasn’t even considered an every day NHL player.

    He’s come along way over the last two years and is continuing to push.

    With that said, he did score a bunch of goals last year and his shooting percentage was unsustainably high so that should come down. At the same time, he may have more of an opportunity up the lineup.

    In a perfect world, we are able to keep him in the bottom 6 but his ice is a bit subject to:

    1) how Lucic does – if he can’t keep 2LW, JJ is an option
    2) center healthy – if Nuge needs to move to C, JJ moves up the lineup.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: It won’t take much to beat out Caggiula, Rattie, and Aberg.

    It would take more to beat out Puljujarvi, Strome (who should see some top 6 RW time) and Rieder (who you are adamant must be 1RW).

    Aberg may surprise in the top 6 if the head coach does not hold a grudge for his mistake last year.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    My take is not that the scouts should avoid drafting smaller players like Yamamoto. It’s that if all the other tools are comparable, I lean to the larger prospect. A smaller player will have more difficulties in the high traffic areas. It shouldn’t be heresy to suggest that. The NHL is a physical league.

    That’s the thing – the skill wasn’t comparable – from many accounts, Yamamoto would have been drafted near the top 5 if he was bigger – his skill outranks his draft position and he was only there at 22 due to size.

  49. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: True percentage – 0%

    2016 playoff run: top 3D – Klefbom (Sweden), Larsson (Sweden), Sekera (Slovakia)

    Larsson(Sweden), and Sekera(Slovakia) weren’t drafted by the Oilers.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: As Leadfarm said, it would be more beneficial if Yammy gets a season in the AHL to learn how to play against men.

    and that is one opinion.

    My opinion is that its impossible to know that at this point – he’s had 10 months of development since the last chance he got to show he knows how to, and is read to, play against men.

    Maybe he needs some AHL time. I don’t know and I don’t understand how anyone else could know.

    We’ll know more at the end of September.

  51. pts2pndr says:

    hunter1909:
    Premise Statement: Any time Oilers draft anyone European it turns out to be a wasted pick. The team is run by parochial thinking(non-Canadians are 90% all crap) management, and continues to be influenced by this incredibly corrupting situation of having FIRED EMPLOYEES remaining in the office to passively wreck havoc.

    Evidence: Yakupov, Rita, Salmalailen(sp lol), Niinnimaki(sp), Shlepeshev(sp), Pajaarvi-Svenson(sp)…

    Possible contrary evidence: Klefbom(top 4 often injured(another argument lol) defenceman, Hemsky.

    My estimation of this being either True/Untrue:

    80% True.

    Lowetide posters:

    Do you agree/disagree with my premise?

    What’s YOUR True/Untrue percentage?

    By what I have observed with the exception of the Muckler Sather regime I would say a definite yes! I would say more a 70/30 than your 80 per cent but a definite bias especially as concerns Russians!

  52. workaroundaccount says:

    Jujhar Khaira is in the range (probably above) where Chiarelli feels he can replace an elite winger (Eberle) with him. I think 3line is fair. His career arc is so weird that I want to see him have another year before deeming him a long term guy. He actally has skills outside of scoring, so I doubt he flames out like the others.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bling:
    VOR,

    KY is key to this season and I love the player.

    However, I would rather send him down for 5, 10, 20 games to start the season, play him 20+ minutes a game in all situations and call him up to stay (in the top 6) rather than have him up, watch him struggle, get demoted to the A, and then work his way back up again.

    The yo-yo act isn’t helpful or time efficient for either the org or the player. See Puljujarvi, Jesse.

    The fact remains that KY’s age 19 season in the WHL wasn’t a big growth year for him. Most other guys of his player type who make the jump at 20 from the Dub had bigger years than he did (e.g. Brayden Point).

    Being a legit first line or second line RW at age 20 is not easy. If KY can do it, that’s amazing, but I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect that right out of the gate.

    I’ve been on record stating that I think Yamamoto’s “arrow” is currently even, not up or down, based off of last year’s season. He did end up top 10 in the WHL in P/G but it was an inconsistent and uneven season.

    With that said, he blew the doors off the WHL in the second half. No, he didn’t do it all year but he did it for a large sample size in the most recent stint of hockey – maybe he did have a growth year given he finished the year (pre-playoffs) tearing the league apart?

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: Larsson(Sweden), and Sekera(Slovakia) weren’t drafted by the Oilers.

    So? They were acquired by the Oilers for cost.

    It seems the Oilers having their top 3D as Europeans goes against the premise that “The team is run by parochial thinking(non-Canadians are 90% all crap)….”

  55. hunter1909 says:

    pts2pndr: By what I have observed with the exception of the Muckler Sather regime I would say a definite yes! I would say more a 70/30 than your 80 per cent but a definite bias especially as concerns Russians!

    70/30 works for me.

  56. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: So?They were acquired by the Oilers for cost.

    It seems the Oilers having their top 3D as Europeans goes against the premise that “The team is run by parochial thinking(non-Canadians are 90% all crap)….”

    Well, this isn’t about their trading Hart winners for spare change either. It’s about chronically drafting then screwing up development of Euro players.

    ps: Lowe’s $100million offer for (euro)Hossa was epic. Right up there with the Vanek Offer Sheet fiasco.

  57. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: Also, they like him. Same cast a year ago and KY won the job. That said, I think they’re going to try to do the right thing

    There were a number of players that ( won jobs so to speak ) and how did that work for us? Proper player deployment is important. Did he win the job on merit or because he was the teams first round draft choice? Smaller players have to have elite skating to flourish in the NHL. Kailer is an excellent skater but he does not by what I have observed have elite skating skills. He is part of the Oiler family and as such I wish him nothing but the best and will cheer for him to succeed!

  58. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    The question is not is Yamamoto better than our existing wingers. He already is. The question is what’s better for him long term. I don’t know of a single prospect that was ruined by Ahl time but we all could list plenty that have been by being thrown off the deep end.
    Prediction is Yamamoto is in a top 6 role. I would do it differently.

  59. Melvis says:

    hunter1909,

    I’m just pulling your leg.

  60. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    My take is not that the scouts should avoid drafting smaller players like Yamamoto. It’s that if all the other tools are comparable, I lean to the larger prospect. A smaller player will have more difficulties in the high traffic areas. It shouldn’t be heresy to suggest that. The NHL is a physical league.

    I think everyone is on the same page.

    If everything is equal, then go with bigger.

    The historical issue is drafting large players with 1 or 2 tools (none of which are skating) over 4-5 tools players who are smaller.

    Yz has been lapping the field for years on this but everyone is catching up now that most teams are using predictive data along with scouting to inform their decisions.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: Well, this isn’t about their trading Hart winners for spare change either. It’s about chronically drafting then screwing up development of Euro players.

    ps: Lowe’s $100million offer for (euro)Hossa was epic. Right up there with the Vanek Offer Sheet fiasco.

    I thought it was about the following statement:

    he team is run by parochial thinking(non-Canadians are 90% all crap) management, and continues to be influenced by this incredibly corrupting situation of having FIRED EMPLOYEES remaining in the office to passively wreck havoc”.

    Such statement, seemingly proven false given the major investment in non-Canadians continually being made by such management.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    The question is not is Yamamoto better than our existing wingers.He already is.The question is what’s better for him long term.I don’t know of a single prospect that was ruined by Ahl time but we all could list plenty that have been by being thrown off the deep end.
    Prediction is Yamamoto is in a top 6 role.I would do it differently.

    I absolutely agree with most of this.

    Even if Yamamoto proves to be “better” than Rattie, if it looks like his game requires AHL development time then he should go to the AHL.

    My point is simply that we do not know if that is the case and blanket statements of where he needs to play without the required information, don’t make sense to me.

    Sometimes highly talented forwards can go straight from junior to the NHL – Matt Barzal did in his draft plus 2 year. A small Alex DeBrincat did in his draft plus two year.

    Maybe Yamamoto can as well.

    Maybe he can’t.

    I don’t know the answer to this question and I don’t understand how others can.

  63. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I absolutely agree with most of this.

    Even if Yamamoto proves to be “better” than Rattie, if it looks like his game requires AHL development time then he should go to the AHL.

    My point is simply that we do not know if that is the case and blanket statements of where he needs to play without the required information, don’t make sense to me.

    Sometimes highly talented forwards can go straight from junior to the NHL – Matt Barzal did in his draft plus 2 year.A small Alex DeBrincat did in his draft plus two year.

    Maybe Yamamoto can as well.

    Maybe he can’t.

    I don’t know the answer to this question and I don’t understand how others can.

    I think everyone would agree with this. He may prove that he is the best option top 6 and therefore should play. I get giving him time, but it is very unlikely he gets much bigger, a little heavier with time.

    If he has the game it’s time go time. I think he’ll start in the A and be up soon most likely, given he’ll be a better option most likely over others and offense is likely a problem for the team. Alex B is the same size and was draft +2 in the bigs.

    He needs to crack the lineup soon or it no be good for Kailer’s chances. It would mean he doesn’t have enough. I do believe his shot as mentioned is a key to this. He has to have NHL velocity on it and score.

    The team doesn’t really need another pass first player that can’t score enough in the top 6, especially at that size. I believe they took him because of the 42 goals in his draft year, they are expecting a goal scorer that thinks the game well and is fast.

  64. pts2pndr says:

    leadfarmer: Yamamoto had better numbers than the guy taken #2 OV.The only reason he fell was his size.If he was 6’1 190 lbs he would have been picked top 10

    Could it be that over time experience dictates that smaller players have a greater difficulty in graduating to the NHL. By what you are saying the scouts of at least 7 teams ( re Yamamoto ) are less astute at picking talent as per his numbers!

    OriginalPouzar: True percentage – 0%

    2016 playoff run: top 3D – Klefbom (Sweden), Larsson (Sweden), Sekera (Slovakia)

    Two of those players are Chiarelli aquisitions and already established. Name one other player after Slats that was drafted and developed other than Klefbom and Leon. I think we are seeing a change in thinking over the last 3-5 years but there was a period of 10 or more years that Hunters take is bang on. I would still agree that the handling on non English as a first language prospects needs much work!

  65. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    If you check the year over year correlation for A260, like Tulsky did, you’re going to find that it’s low, which is what Tulsky found. But, instead of seeing it as a smaller numbers, higher variance problem, he interpreted that to mean scoring secondary assists isn’t a talent and that secondary assists should be excluded from a forward’s scoring total. He backed it up by looking at the year over year A260 rates for forwards who switch teams.

    The fact that 2nd assists have a low population and a high variance problem is why not including them gives you better predictions about future scoring.

    “… better predictions about future scoring.”

    I have the Tulsky post. He doesn’t get into future aggregate scoring (P or P1) there, just looks at the components: G, A1, and A2. Do you have another source? Just want to make sure I understand your position (exclude A2) before I lay out the support for my own (include A2).

  66. Georgexs says:

    Here’s something interesting:

    Season, % of 5v5 Goals Scored by D

    07-08, 12
    08-09, 12
    09-10, 13
    10-11, 13
    11-12, 13
    12-13, 13
    13-14, 14
    14-15, 16
    15-16, 15
    16-17, 15
    17-18, 17

    And

    Season, % of 5v5 A1 Scored by D

    07-08, 19
    08-09, 21
    09-10, 22
    10-11, 22
    11-12, 23
    12-13, 22
    13-14, 23
    14-15, 23
    15-16, 25
    16-17, 26
    17-18, 26

    Defensemen are getting more involved in generating 5v5 offense (increasing share of G and A1).

  67. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Many Oiler fans have a view of the game that would make Brian Burke look like New Age Softie

    My Scouting Attributes:

    1) Truculence
    2) Size
    3) Fighting Ability
    4) Body checking
    5) Interview Ability

    Secrets out. You’re welcome

  68. pts2pndr says:

    wood99:
    I think KY has the hockey savvy to play with either McDavid or Draisaitl. To me the key will be can he finish enough. He is very smart in 1 on 1 battles and surprisingly wins more often then not. I think his shot needs work though…just my 2 cents

    By my observation last year on more than one occasion when Yamamoto was in tight to the opponents net the opposition defenseman would merely straight arm him in the chest and onto his butt! I believe that with a short period in the AHL, Kailer because of his hockey IQ will learn how to push off and or avoid this kind of contact! I would like him to get this experience in other than the NHL. I also believe he should be played on a line with a bigger centerman or winger to give the line more balance! It is unfair to expect him to do certain parts of the heavy lifting. Who is the cornerman or net front presence in a line of Yamamo, McDavid and Nuge. They would be great off the rush but what then?

  69. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    pts2pndr,

    Hemsky says hello with Jussi Markkanen, MPS, Lander having a cup of coffee with Hartikainen, Omark and Marincin.

    That’s an exhaustive list using hockeydb looking at Euros we drafted post-2000 who have/had careers. The actual list of Euros drafted is substantial, and about as many Euros didn’t pan out as North Americans.

  70. jtblack says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    The question is not is Yamamoto better than our existing wingers.He already is.The question is what’s better for him long term.I don’t know of a single prospect that was ruined by Ahl time but we all could list plenty that have been by being thrown off the deep end.
    Prediction is Yamamoto is in a top 6 role.I would do it differently.

    I still think a full year in the AHL would be Good for Yammy. There is nothingn wrong with slow playing prospects. I think the high end prospects almost always get rushed cause it’s a “Win Now” League for coaches and GM’s.

    Can Yammy make the big club? Yes
    Is he absolutely ready to play in the NHL? Maybe
    Would 1 full year in the AHL hurt Yamamoto’s development in any way? No

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:

    Two of those players are Chiarelli aquisitions and already established. Name one other player after Slats that was drafted and developed other than Klefbom and Leon. I think we are seeing a change in thinking over the last 3-5 years but there was a period of 10 or more years that Hunters take is bang on. I would still agree that the handling on non English as a first language prospects needs much work!

    His statement included the following: “the team is run by parochial thinking(non-Canadians are 90% all crap) management, and continues to be influenced by this incredibly corrupting situation of having FIRED EMPLOYEES remaining in the office to passively wreck havoc.”

    While the initial statement started with talking about drafting Europeans, the statement above went much further and implies an internal bias against non-Canadians bordering (I’m not sure the word racism doesn’t fit) and, in my opinion.

    Given the organization’s continued investment in non-Canadians, I will disagree with the statement (the statement that goes far beyond the realm of drafting and developing).

  72. hunter1909 says:

    Melvis:
    hunter1909,

    I’m just pulling your leg.

    Online, people like me have the attention fan of a gnat.

  73. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I thought it was about the following statement:

    he team is run by parochial thinking(non-Canadians are 90% all crap) management, and continues to be influenced by this incredibly corrupting situation of having FIRED EMPLOYEES remaining in the office to passively wreck havoc”.

    Such statement, seemingly proven false given the major investment in non-Canadians continually being made by such management.

    That the Lowe+MacT bandwagon constantly goes for Euros then mismanages them, some to the point of infamy underscores my original remark.

    This “major” investing management has delivered an arena with terrible ice, terrible management, and with the greatest talent since Orr/Gretzky/Lemieux has managed an abysmal team 67% of the time.

    Now to close, I’d like to end this with the statement that I’m very happy that they’re going for Europeans now, as they just traded away the new Canadian Hart trophy winner, which suggests they’re souring on Canadians lol

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yup, they’ve drafted many Europeans over the years – not sure how that proves the ideology that “non-Canadians are 90% crap) whether they were developed managed properly or not.

    Yes, they drafted many Europens and then mis-managed them.

    They also drafted many Canadians and mis-managed them.

    To me, they have not been biased towards or against any nationality over any other no matter how many Yakupov’s and Yakimov’s go through the organization – there are just as many Marco Roys and Mitch Moroz’s

  75. VOR says:

    What exactly would Kailer Yamamoto be learning playing in the AHL? That talent, desire, and hard work aren’t enough? That playing with poorer teammates against weaker competition is how to play with better teammates against better competition? That scoring on AHL goaltenders is the same thing as scoring on NHL goaltenders? What exactly is he going to be working on?

    Anybody got an answer?

  76. VOR says:

    pts2pndr: By my observation last year on more than one occasion when Yamamoto was in tight to the opponents net the opposition defenseman would merely straight arm him in the chest and onto his butt! I believe that with a short period in the AHL, Kailer because of his hockey IQ will learn how to push off and or avoid this kind of contact!I would like him to get this experience in other than the NHL. I also believe he should be played on a line with a bigger centerman or winger to give the line more balance! It is unfair to expect him to do certain parts of the heavy lifting. Who is the cornerman or net front presence in a line of Yamamo, McDavid and Nuge. They would be great off the rush but what then?

    Why wouldn’t he learn the same thing in the NHL?

  77. VOR says:

    jtblack: I still think a full year in the AHL would be Good for Yammy.There is nothingn wrong with slow playing prospects.I think the high end prospects almost always get rushed cause it’sa “Win Now” League for coaches and GM’s.

    Can Yammy make the big club? Yes
    Is he absolutely ready to play in the NHL? Maybe
    Would 1 full year in the AHL hurt Yamamoto’s development in any way?No

    How would it be good for Yamamoto? What is the development plan?

  78. Wilde says:

    VOR:
    What exactly would Kailer Yamamoto be learning playing in the AHL?

    Some stuff.

    VOR: That talent, desire, and hard work aren’t enough.

    No

    VOR: That playing with poorer teammates against weaker competition is how to play with better teammates against better competition

    Yes

    VOR: That scoring on AHL goaltenders is the same thing as scoring on NHL goaltenders?

    Yes

    VOR: What exactly is he going to be working on?

    Spacing, timing, the new system, powerplay

    I’m assuming on that third part. The team is making changes 5v5, and he can get used to it in a less heavily punishing league.

    What I mean by punishing isn’t anything to do with physical play, by the way. I’m talking about how much the NHL does with so little.

    The NHL is a truly amazing league when it comes to punishing mistakes, the amount of marginal minutia that results in goals is pure comedy. This is because of coaching removing the ability to make mistakes and removing better player effects wherever possible, and subsequently modelling their entire offensive scheme around punishing mistakes as hard as possible.

    Something you’re missing in your line of questioning, is that it’s not just what Bakersfield will do for Yamamoto, but what Yamamoto will do for Bakersfield.

    I detailed this in my post about his part of our story yesterday but I don’t want to spam and link it twice. If you haven’t read it or don’t want to, I can paste the relevant part here.

    But, in summary:

    – Yamamoto is probably a 15 goals against replacement player on that team, and having a winning AHL team is always good

    – Good teams build a road through their AHL squad to their NHL squad that is mandatory, even for half a season

    – Bakersfield has no depth and some acquisitions that may straight up be below replacement level due to lack of offense in college, having a winning AHL team is always good

    – Play Benson&Marody with skill to attempt to forge them into complementary Maroon, Hyman type top sixers instead of career bottom sixers, to fill the void at LW

    – Evaluate Jay Woodcroft’s ability to retain forward’s offense, Yamamoto should be a slam dunk and you can’t trust him with McLeod if he can’t deal with Yamamoto

  79. hags9k says:

    My money is on JP taking hold of the 1RW job by the time the presents are unwrapped. KY could prove me wrong but JP has always reminded me of a young Mats Sundin. With 93 and 97 making life easier in all 3 zones, I think he should be ready to emerge this year. There’s just too much size and skill there.

    I will be cheering like crazy for KY also, wherever they slot we really need both of them to leap forward and make sure that 2 line is also in the black.

  80. Wilde says:

    pts2pndr: wins more often then not. I think his shot needs work though…just my 2 cents

    By my observation last year on more than one occasion when Yamamoto was in tight to the opponents net the opposition defenseman would merely straight arm him in the chest and onto his butt!

    Do you remember which team this happened against?

  81. VOR says:

    OriginalPouzar: I absolutely agree with most of this.

    Even if Yamamoto proves to be “better” than Rattie, if it looks like his game requires AHL development time then he should go to the AHL.

    My point is simply that we do not know if that is the case and blanket statements of where he needs to play without the required information, don’t make sense to me.

    Sometimes highly talented forwards can go straight from junior to the NHL – Matt Barzal did in his draft plus 2 year.A small Alex DeBrincat did in his draft plus two year.

    Maybe Yamamoto can as well.

    Maybe he can’t.

    I don’t know the answer to this question and I don’t understand how others can.

    I agree. I am pushing so hard for him playing in the NHL because to date nobody has given me any reason for Kailer to play in the AHL that aren’t either proxies for “he is too small” or don’t involve skill development that can best be learned in the NHL.

    I think if Kailer’s play in preseason indicates he isn’t as good as the other options he should go down to the AHL. If he is the fourth best right winger on the Oilers (or higher) he stays. The NHL is a meritocracy.

  82. VOR says:

    Wilde: Some stuff.

    No

    Yes

    Yes

    Spacing, timing, the new system, powerplay

    I’m assuming on that third part. The team is making changes 5v5, and he can get used to it in a less heavily punishing league.

    What I mean by punishing isn’t anything to do with physical play, by the way. I’m talking about how much the NHL does with so little.

    The NHL is a truly amazing league when it comes to punishing mistakes, the amount of marginal minutia that results in goals is pure comedy. This is because of coaching removing the ability to make mistakes and removing better player effects wherever possible, and subsequently modelling their entire offensive scheme around punishing mistakes as hard as possible.

    Something you’re missing in your line of questioning, is that it’s not just what Bakersfield will do for Yamamoto, but what Yamamoto will do for Bakersfield.

    I detailed this in my post about his part of our story yesterday but I don’t want to spam and link it twice. If you haven’t read it or don’t want to, I can paste the relevant part here.

    But, in summary:

    – Yamamoto is probably a 15 goals against replacement player on that team, and having a winning AHL team is always good

    – Good teams build a road through their AHL squad to their NHL squad that is mandatory, even for half a season

    – Bakersfield has no depth and some acquisitions that may straight up be below replacement level due to lack of offense in college, having a winning AHL team is always good

    – Play Benson&Marody with skill to attempt to forge them into complementary Maroon, Hyman type top sixers instead of career bottom sixers, to fill the void at LW

    – Evaluate Jay Woodcroft’s ability to retain forward’s offense, Yamamoto should be a slam dunk and you can’t trust him with McLeod if he can’t deal with Yamamoto

    I appreciate your response but generations of NHL forwards have learned all these things while playing in the NHL. Are you saying Kailer is stupid or uncoachable? I don’t mean that to sound snarky. I just want to point out that by saying Kailer can’t learn that stuff in the NHL you are saying he is in some way defective given thousands of other players have done just that.

    He might be good for Bakersfield but he might also be eating the ice time a kid who really needs AHL development time would benefit from.

    You appear to be making a priori assumptions and then looking for reasons to support those assumptions. Don’t you think Original Pouzar is right that we should wait and see where he is in training camp? What if Kailer Yamamoto can help the Oilers make the playoffs this year, do you still send him down.

  83. VOR says:

    I want to focus on your point about the narrow tolerances in the NHL. Great point. Exactly why Kailer should be playing in the NHL. Are there 4 more efficient right wingers on the Oilers NHL roster? How about with better puck possession metrics? Because of the narrow tolerances your best players have to play.

  84. wood99 says:

    I think he is going to surprise everyone and make the team out right. His brain is his biggest attribute and then his chip on his shoulder. I don’t think he is the type of player you can intimidate and that’s why I’m not as concerned about his size as a lot of others. I think these are things you just can’t teach,it’s either in you or it’s not.

  85. Wilde says:

    VOR: I don’t mean that to sound snarky.

    hah, you were very unsuccessful

    VOR: you are saying he is in some way defective given thousands of other players have done just that.

    No, I’m saying that it’s possible he arrives midseason in the NHL and is better and more confident at these things after learning them with lower error margins than he would be after learning them in the prior NHL games with lower event rate and higher error margins

    VOR: He might be good for Bakersfield but he might also be eating the ice time a kid who really needs AHL development time would benefit from.

    I covered this, VOR. These middle area prospects don’t exist at Bakersfield RW. Consult the roster instead of making /an assumption prior/.

    Also, the player went into a funk directly after being demoted last year.

    Given this information, would you rather erroneously assess that he’s ready for the NHL and be wrong and have to send him down, or erroneously assess that he’s not ready for the AHL, and have to call him up after he’s demolished the AHL?

    Alex Debrincat added 1.673 wins against against replacement according to a blending of 3 models last year.

    Let’s outlandishly overestimate Yamamoto and say he’s twice as good, or alternatively say that the WAR total is wildly underestimating Debrincat’s value.

    By 20 games, that’s about 4/5s of a win. So one point, almost there on the way to another.

    That means the Oilers would be risking a single point in the standings by keeping Yamamoto down even though he could help the team.

    Whereas they run the risk of repeating last year if they end up having to send him back down. Which is the more reasonable risk to take?

    VOR: Don’t you think Original Pouzar is right that we should wait and see where he is in training camp?

    Yes.

  86. VOR says:

    Wilde: hah, you were very unsuccessful

    No, I’m saying that it’s possible he arrives midseason in the NHL and is better and more confident at these things after learning them with lower error margins than he would be after learning them in the prior NHL games with lower event rate and higher error margins

    I covered this, VOR. These middle areaprospects don’t exist at Bakersfield RW. Consult the roster instead of making /an assumption prior/.

    Also, the player went into a funk directly after being demoted last year.

    Given this information, would you rather erroneously assessthat he’s ready for the NHL and be wrong and have to send him down, or erroneously assess that he’s not ready for the AHL, and have to call him up after he’s demolished the AHL?

    Alex Debrincat added 1.673 wins against against replacement according to a blending of 3 models last year.

    Let’s outlandishly overestimate Yamamoto and say he’s twice as good, or alternatively say that the WAR total is wildly underestimating Debrincat’s value.

    By 20 games, that’s about 4/5s of a win. So one point, almost there on the way to another.

    That means the Oilers would be risking a single point in the standings by keeping Yamamoto down even though he could help the team.

    Whereas they run the risk of repeating last year if they end up having to send him back down. Which is the more reasonable risk to take?

    Yes.

    I don’t think you can make assumptions about whether or not a player in Bakersfield is going to benefit from ice time until they play those minutes. So it is not that I didn’t read you. Nor that I made a priori assumptions. Just that we don’t agree on the value of a development program to an NHL team.

    In my opinion it is to provide a place for players who don’t have a chance at NHL minutes a place to hone their skills and for the best of them to earn future opportunities in the NHL. It is not a place to send one of your top four right wingers to work on their confidence or skills they can learn in real time in the NHL.

    I will say again, you are right, the NHL is a tough and unforgiving league. That is why teams have to play their best players. If Kailer Yamamoto is one of the top four right wings in training camp (and the odds of this are really quite high) he should start the season in the NHL.

  87. Wilde says:

    I should clarify:

    I think there’s a reasonable chance Kailer Yamamoto is the best right winger in camp. In this scenario he should play that game in Europe and every one he’s healthy for thereafter.

    What I am saying is there is real benefit to player and team to be had, if it is not clear whether or not he is ready.

    It will be nowhere near a poor outcome.

    VOR: I don’t think you can make assumptions about whether or not a player in Bakersfield is going to benefit from ice time until they play those minutes.

    The RW depth chart in Bakersfield does not feature a player at 4RW whose developmental suffering from lost icetime for the first quarter of the season will result in a non-negligible effect on the NHL team’s depth and pipeline. This is less of an assumption and more a take informed by decades of results of >22 year old, sub .5 points per game players.

    VOR: Just that we don’t agree on the value of a development program to an NHL team.

    Then you must not value a development program to an NHL team very much, because I doubt that you value one any more than I do.

    VOR: In my opinion it is to provide a place for players who don’t have a chance at NHL minutes a place to hone their skills and for the best of them to earn future opportunities in the NHL. It is not a place to send one of your top four right wingers to work on their confidence or skills they can learn in real time in the NHL.

    Boston, Tampa Bay, Nashville, Toronto and Winnipeg have all recently put 20 year olds forwards who could have added value in the NHL onto their AHL teams to start years, sometimes keeping them there the entire year.

    VOR: I will say again, you are right, the NHL is a tough and unforgiving league. That is why teams have to play there best players. If Kailer Yamamoto is one of the top four right wings in training camp (and the odds of this are really quite high) he should start the season in the NHL.

    You haven’t addressed my assessment, so I’ll ask for yours: How much, in goal share, would you estimate the Oilers will be giving up by having Puljujarvi-Aberg-Rieder-Kassian down the right side instead of Yamamoto, for 20 games?

  88. Bling says:

    Wilde,

    I can’t speak to the validity of these models, but let’s say KY plays on McDavid’s line.

    McDavid is the best player, or at worst top 2 or 3 in the NHL.

    He puts up anywhere from 50% GF to 60+% GF depending on who his linemates are.

    Now, if Nuge/McDavid/KY hum to the tune of 60% out of the gate, versus, say 50-55% for Nuge/McDavid/Rattie…well, I’ll take KY, regardless of what the model says of whatever his individual contribution may be.

    You (or the models) may be right in saying that KY would only add one expected point in the standings over 20 games, but I don’t think you can use that as justification for ignoring a potential 5% spread in GF% on your top line.

    *I am not suggesting that KY can help Nuge/McDavid hum to the tune of 60+% GF; I have no idea.

    **Any model on KY is going to be chaotic with large error bars. We have an idea of how McDavid, Nuge, Drai et al will perform. I don’t think anyone (including myself) has any idea of how KY will perform. His okay-ish 19 year old season with a red-hot second half muddies the waters further.

    ***I actually think that KY should start in the AHL, but I’m just arguing for fun. It is interesting to think of thresholding for expected GF% between Rattie/Rieder/KY on that top line (assuming Drai and Pulju are a thing). If you think KY can make the that line hum to the tune of 60% GF…don’t send him down! You can’t!!!

  89. Wilde says:

    Bling: Now, if Nuge/McDavid/KY hum to the tune of 60% out of the gate, versus, say 50-55% for Nuge/McDavid/Rattie…well, I’ll take KY, regardless of what the model says of whatever his individual contribution may be.
    You (or the models) may be right in saying that KY would only add one expected point in the standings over 20 games, but I don’t think you can use that as justification for ignoring a potential 5% spread in GF% on your top line.

    Well, if one hypothetically accepts the premise of the individual contribution to be 1 point in the standings, then taking issue with specific players on-ice goalshare is expressing a preference of /how/ the team wins and loses, now how much it wins and loses.

    To make this argument, that the 5-10% increase in goalshare is what would happen, you’d have to disagree with the model in the first place and reject the premise, because that goalshare swing would diverge from the projection

    For example, McDavid was on the ice for 40 goals in the first 23 games of last season.

    A GF% of 60% of that in counts is 24-16.

    A GF% of 50% in counts is 20-20.

    That would make Yamamoto’s influence /more/ than 4/5ths of a win, and remember I doubled Debrincat’s WAR.

    So, one has to pick: disagree with the model’s assessment, or agree with the model and place more value in /how/ you win the goalshare instead of just being satisfied with whatever /does/ win you the goalshare.

    Bling:
    *I am not suggesting that KY can help Nuge/McDavid hum to the tune of 60+% GF; I have no idea.

    I think there’s a decent chance they would. I’m at the very least tied for the biggest Yamamoto fan on this blog.

  90. digger50 says:

    pts2pndr: By my observation last year on more than one occasion when Yamamoto was in tight to the opponents net the opposition defenseman would merely straight arm him in the chest and onto his butt! I believe that with a short period in the AHL, Kailer because of his hockey IQ will learn how to push off and or avoid this kind of contact!I would like him to get this experience in other than the NHL. I also believe he should be played on a line with a bigger centerman or winger to give the line more balance! It is unfair to expect him to do certain parts of the heavy lifting. Who is the cornerman or net front presence in a line of Yamamo, McDavid and Nuge. They would be great off the rush but what then?

    My observation was that exact thing happening to Ty Rattie. Give him credit, someone on that line had to get a n there but it was tough on him. I remember thinking this line could sure use Maroon.

    Man, we are going to miss Maroon this year. After the pretty goals, who is going to bang in those net front goals? No idea. Lord help us if it’s just more of work the cycle until you can get it back to the point for an ineffective wrist shot. Repeat.

  91. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs: “… better predictions about future scoring.”

    I have the Tulsky post. He doesn’t get into future aggregate scoring (P or P1) there, just looks at the components: G, A1, and A2. Do you have another source? Just want to make sure I understand your position (exclude A2) before I lay out the support for my own (include A2).

    Yeah, I’m trying to find the piece (its old)

    The correlation between p1/60 and p/60 the next year was better than p/60 and p/60 the next year. Sample was ~5 years worth of scoring.

    There’s a whole bunch of stuff that isn’t available any more (Dellow, Ferarri, some blogs that were originally posted at SB network)

    Also,

    I think p/60 would be better at predicting p/60 scoring (or as good as p1/60) if you only look at forwards.

  92. VOR says:

    Wilde:
    I should clarify:

    I think there’s a reasonable chance Kailer Yamamoto is the best right winger in camp. In this scenario he should play that game in Europe and every one he’s healthy for thereafter.

    What I am saying is there is real benefit to player and team to be had, if it is not clear whether or not he is ready.

    It will be nowhere near a poor outcome.

    The RW depth chart in Bakersfield does not feature a player at 4RW whose developmental suffering from lost icetime for the first quarter of the season will result in a non-negligible effect on the NHL team’s depth and pipeline. This is less of an assumption and more a take informed by decades of results of >22 year old, sub .5 points per game players.

    Then you must not value a development program to an NHL team very much, because I doubt that you value one any more than I do.

    Boston, Tampa Bay, Nashville, Toronto and Winnipeg have all recently put 20 year olds forwards who could have added valuein the NHL onto their AHL teams to start years, sometimes keeping them there the entire year.

    You haven’t addressed my assessment, so I’ll ask for yours: How much, in goal share, would you estimate the Oilers will be giving up by having Puljujarvi-Aberg-Rieder-Kassian down the right side instead of Yamamoto, for 20 games?

  93. VOR says:

    Let’s say, and you have to admit it is possible, that Kailer is one of the top 4RW in camp.

    In other words on merit he should play.

    I would think we can agree that there are situations where he would be in your uncertain category. For example JP is clearly the top RW and Tobias Reider is 2RW. Now for sake of argument Kailer is 3rd with Rattie and Kassian 4 and 5.

    I assume you would agree this is clearly possible.

    Now what? Do you send him down?

    Let’s go a step further and except your twenty game “audition” in the AHL.

    How many points do we lose? I would guess whether Kailer plays in the NHL or not has no impact on the Oilers as a team over those twenty games but I would say it could have a huge impact on the Oilers future success.

    You already have one potential candidate for 1RW who may have issues with how the organization has treated them. You seem determined to add another. There is a psychological aspect you aren’t allowing for.

    It is hard enough to admit you just weren’t good enough. But players at the pro level know when they weren’t good enough. In hockey guys go to the A and work their ass off. But they also know when they made the team fair and square. Hockey is supposed to be a meritocracy. The minute you veer from that model you are playing with dynamite.

    You can send players to the AHL for years and have them become very valuable and happy parts of your team. Consider Max Pacioretty and Claude Giroux. Neither would have made it to the NHL without the A.

    Powerhouse teams encourage competition and often have real depth. So players who probably could take a shift in the NHL have to prove it in the AHL. I wish the Oilers were one of those teams. They aren’t.

    So if Kailer is the 3rd best RW in camp do you send him to the A?

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca