The Kids Are Alright

Many years ago, Bill James wrote a chapter about the Minnesota Twins in one of his annual abstracts. Summary: It didn’t look too good when those young kids arrived and kicked the ball all over the yard, but just a few years later the organization won it all. The emergence of Frank Viola, Kent Hrbek, Gary Gaetti and Tom Brunansky in 1982 gave the club an enormous lift, later aided by the addition of Kirby Puckett (1984) and some astute trade additions. This is the hope for the Edmonton Oilers, who have the greatest gift of this generation and require quality to surround him. This is the hope for Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and others.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

RE 2018-19 FORWARDS (ESTIMATING TOI) TOP 2 LINES

  • We began our RE discussion a week ago, the totals above are last year’s numbers in the first three columns, my estimates for the top 6F breakdown in 2018-19 is the last column.
  • This is even strength and skill forwards from the top two lines.
  • I don’t have the point projections here, will publish them later in the summer once we’ve run through The Athletic profiles.
  • I’ve chosen Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and Ty Rattie as the RW hopefuls who get the big push on Connor McDavid’s line. I have a winner and will tell you in those profiles.
  • I estimated Tobias Rieder gets big minutes inside the top 6F, both on RW and LW as injuries impact the roster.
  • I have estimated a recovery for Milan Lucic, and that he will play the season on the No. 2 line. That may change at the deadline, but I’ve chosen to bet that the Oilers keep him in a feature role. As I wrote in the spring, the Oilers would be wise to move the big man down to the No. 3 line until it’s established he can play those big minutes effectively.
  • Among skill forwards on the top two lines, I’m predicting a career crossroads for Ty Rattie and Drake Caggiula. I do think Rattie holds on to the No. 1 RW job for an extended period, but will eventually lose out to one of Yamamoto or Puljujarvi (my model has Yamamoto but that’s a guess, they are both substantial options).

RE 2018-19 FORWARDS (ESTIMATING TOI) BOTTOM 2 LINES

 

  • The graph above was published a week ago, this is the new stuff.
  • The totals above are last year’s numbers in the first three columns, my estimates for the bottom 6F breakdown in 2018-19 is the last column.
  • This is even strength and skill forwards from the top two lines.
  • Kyle Brodziak and Ryan Strome will be counted on to improve the performance of Edmonton’s bottom two lines this coming season.
  • The best wingers in the bottom six will be Tobias Rieder and Jesse Puljujarvi but both men will spend much of their seasons playing inside the top 6F based on my estimates.
  • I think Jujhar Khaira and Zack Kassian grab the biggest TOI among available wingers, beating out Pontus Aberg and Drake Caggiula on the depth chart at even strength.
  • I have Todd McLellan using his No. 3 and No. 4 lines less during the regular season, relying more at even strength on the top two lines. I think a player like Brodziak will see substantial penalty-killing time, Rieder too.

WINGERS ESTIMATED EV TIME ON ICE

  1. Milan Lucic 1134—The Oilers don’t have a bunch of options for skill LW and Lucic is healthy every year. Expecting a recovering in goals and points is reasonable but there is a chance he continues to erode. I’m predicting a small recovery and a season on the skill lines.
  2. Tobias Rieder 1120—Rieder’s skills arriving in Edmonton are somewhat similar to several days of rain in the desert: Badly needed and extremely valuable. I suspect Todd McLellan plays the hell out of him.
  3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1072—His career high in points (56) should be left in the dust if RNH spends the entire season with 97. I have him as LW on the No. 1 line for much of the season but do think Leon Draisaitl will move up (forcing RNH to No. 2 C) a few times this winter.
  4. Jesse Puljujarvi 1014—Lots of people predicting a breakout season, for me JP will establish himself as a solid NHL player and score 15-20 goals. I’m not sure that’s breakout or solid progress, but this blog is always trying for reasonable. Predicting 26 goals is beyond reasonable. What does that mean? For me, if Jesse Puljujarvi scores 26 goals this season, everyone should acknowledge it to be an outstanding leap forward (which it would be) and treat it as special. I think an 18-goal season is reasonable as a prediction.
  5. Ty Rattie 714—Rattie gets the job early and holds onto it until one of the kids forces the issue. After that, it’s going to be difficult for him to find a role on the team, we could see Rattie move into that No. 2 RW job and allow Rieder to play on the No. 3 line. I’m not predicting it.
  6. Zack Kassian 675—My model suggests he continues in his No. 4 role, but plays less than a year ago (due to McLellan running his horses more at even strength).
  7. Jujhar Khaira 650—Suspect he’ll have another good season and play some on the No. 3 and No. 4 line, but no prediction of skill line minutes. It could happen but I don’t see it.
  8. Kailer Yamamoto 616—I’m suggesting he’ll spend the first portion (25 games) of the season in Bakersfield and then join a skill line in the NHL, where he will have success.
  9. Pontus Aberg 500—Aberg is the one player in my model I faded despite some very nice things a year ago. He gets squeezed by Yamaoto and Puljujarvi is my take, but don’t be surprised if Aberg forces his way into a more prominent conversation.
  10. Drake Caggiula 459—The numbers suggest Caggiula will have a hard time getting work on the skill and fill lines, eventually having his role reduced to part-time player. Getting passed by two first-round picks is no sin, Caggiula has a hard road this season.
  11. Joe Gambardella 7—Cup of coffee.
  12. Tyler Benson 4—Half cup of coffee.

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62 Responses to "The Kids Are Alright"

  1. Wilde says:

    Love the RE dev stuff.

    Something that jumped out at me: Ryan Strome really played that little?

    That’s the cherry on top of their purported disappointment with the acquisition. Crazy.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Wilde:
    Love the RE dev stuff.

    Something that jumped out at me: Ryan Strome really played that little?

    That’s the cherry on top of their purported disappointment with the acquisition. Crazy.

    I broke down Strome’s minutes over the two tables. He played 12:30 a night even strength last season. I have it increasing slightly.

  3. Wilde says:

    Lowetide: I broke down Strome’s minutes over the two tables. He played 12:30 a night even strength last season. I have it increasing slightly.

    right, I’m daft. Sentiment remains after that adjustment, though, with regards to opportunity. They soured on him real quick, I wonder what the conversation was between general manager and head coach directly before the trade trigger was pulled? Was McLellan just nodding his head, or was he as strong on Strome as Chiarelli was, but started to change his mind as early as training camp?

  4. oilersjo says:

    Good morning LT. Was at a car show in Prince Albert last night. Saw a bunch of Kids from Regina decked out in Ethan Bear Oilers Jerseys. WAs good to see. He is becoming willingly a role model. Hope he makes it. Thank you for the platform

  5. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I like the idea of JP with McD and Nuge, and Yama with Leon and Lucic. To me it evens the lines attributes more and gives Yama someone to step in for him when somebody decides to be stupid.

    It all comes down to Leon getting support to break even and the bottom 6 playing far better. It’s not a huge stretch really.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Here is hoping that, by the turn of the calendar, Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto are 1 and 2 RW on merit – if that’s the case and Talbot bounces back, I see playoffs.

    If only one of them is a top 6 RW on merit, well, that’s the floor of my expectation and I think there could still be playoffs.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    No estimate for Aberg’s TOI in the top 6.

    While I don’t disagree that likely reflects reality, I am disappointed as I think he is a dark horse to produce in the top 6.

    I could be wrong but I believe the head coach may also believe he has top 6 skill but can’t get over the missed practice – egregious to a more older school coach. Perhaps Mr. Viverios can speak to Mr. McLellan re: dealing with younger players.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lucic as 2LW vs. Lucic as 3LW – that will be a storyline to watch.

    Personally, although I can find sexier options for 2LW, I think its important that Lucic is given the opportunity to grab that spot. A Lucic return to a semblance of his old 5 on 5 form, previous Oiler 5 on 5 form, in the top 6 would be huge for the organization. I’m not talking 55 points but 20-25-45 and not a drag on transition. To me the positives are:

    1) well, Lucic producing in the 40-50 point range has primary benefits
    2) Lucic as 2LW should keep Rieder on the 3rd line (s/t health) which I believe is the best place for his skillset
    3) Lucic with a semblance of bounce back is massive for a potential off-season disposition that doesn’t require a sweetener or huge retention – i.e. it could reduce the negative value.

    Come on Milan!

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    The best wingers in the bottom six will be Tobias Rieder and Jesse Puljujarvi but both men will spend much of their seasons playing inside the top 6F based on my estimates.

    I think Jujhar Khaira and Zack Kassian grab the biggest TOI among available wingers, beating out Pontus Aberg and Drake Caggiula on the depth chart at even strength.

    ——————————————————–

    Very likely the case with Rieder but I am hopefull he plays more on the 3rd line – this is mainly subject to overall forward health and Milan Lucic.

    I’m curious to see if Khaira can take another step forward. His shooting percentage will almost assuredly come down but he may get to play with more skill. Again, his ice is a bit s/t Lucic as he is an option at 2LW (although that is likely a reach at this point).

    Aberg should get a legit shot in the top 6 (fighting for a spot with Yamamoto, Puljujarvi and Rattie) – probably won’t happen.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jesse Puljujarvi 1014—Lots of people predicting a breakout season, for me JP will establish himself as a solid NHL player and score 15-20 goals. I’m not sure that’s breakout or solid progress, but this blog is always trying for reasonable. Predicting 26 goals is beyond reasonable. What does that mean? For me, if Jesse Puljujarvi scores 26 goals this season, everyone should acknowledge it to be an outstanding leap forward (which it would be) and treat it as special. I think an 18-goal season is reasonable as a prediction.

    ————————————

    I would agree that expecting 26 goals from Jesse is an unreasonable expectation but I also don’t think Jesse scoring over 20 is outside the realm of reasonableness.

    I think most believe he will take at least a nice solid step forward this season and there are many recent examples of that step being a giant step forward (for European drafted skill in their draft plus 3 season).

    We wait.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think its likely that Yamamoto starts the season in the AHL and that is due to Mr. Evan Bouchard and my belief that the team will keep 8D and 13F if Bouchard breaks camp with the team.

    Yamamoto is in a battle with Rattie and, while I have little doubt that Yamamoto will produce just as much as Rattie, the team likely puts much value in Rattie’s $800K cap hit.

    How long will it take Rattie to be a drag on the top line? The possession numbers were much worse than the goal share last year (and possession numbers are more meaningful in short samples) and, without Nuge, McDavid and Rattie got killed.

    —————————————

    On that note, I’m not in the know about the expanded rosters due to Europe. I don’t imagine that means that can over 23 (and our cap situation wouldn’t allow that in any event) but does it mean they can carry a few extra non-roster players with the team until they return home? Yamamoto could be one such non-roster player that remains with the team.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Joe G. needs to be massively better than he was in his rookie pro season to get a cup of coffee. While he finished the year stronger, it was a year that did not meet expectations.

    Benson with half a cup over Marody?

  13. godot10 says:

    If the Oilers are planning on Lucic and Rattie in the top six, it is a plan that will fail make the playoffs.

  14. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lucic as 2LW vs. Lucic as 3LW – that will be a storyline to watch.

    Personally, although I can find sexier options for 2LW, I think its important that Lucic is given the opportunity to grab that spot.A Lucic return to a semblance of his old 5 on 5 form, previous Oiler 5 on 5 form, in the top 6 would be huge for the organization.I’m not talking 55 points but 20-25-45 and not a drag on transition.To me the positives are:

    1) well, Lucic producing in the 40-50 point range has primary benefits
    2) Lucic as 2LW should keep Rieder on the 3rd line (s/t health) which I believe is the best place for his skillset
    3) Lucic with a semblance of bounce back is massive for a potential off-season disposition that doesn’t require a sweetener or huge retention – i.e. it could reduce the negative value.

    Come on Milan!

    The Oilers should be telling Lucic that he should be their Kessel, outscoring on the 3rd line. Almost winning a Conn Smythe on the 3rd line.

  15. Wilde says:

    I tried to fit too much into one post and failed and ran out of time

    https://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2018/08/the-best-player-available-12.html

  16. Georgexs says:

    WG,

    Using corsica data, here’s the correlation between 5v5 P60 and P160 with next season’s P60 for all forwards:

    Season, P60, P160

    07-08, .24, .21
    08-09, .33, .33
    09-10, .24, .20
    10-11, .35, .33
    11-12, .36, .37
    12-13, .36, .38
    13-14, .45, .41
    14-15, .33, .31
    15-16, .33, .29
    16-17, .34, .34

    And, here’s the correlation for forwards who played at least 60 games in both seasons (the criteria that Tulsky used in his post):

    Season, P60, P160

    07-08, .53, .52
    08-09, .58, .57
    09-10, .56, .55
    10-11, .56, .55
    13-14, .63, .60
    14-15, .51, .48
    15-16, .41, .41
    16-17, .44, .41

    – You can see there’s nothing here to strongly suggest that P160 predicts future P60 better than P60 itself. The data, in fact, supports the opposite conclusion.

    – Interesting to see the correlations going down in recent years. A weak relationship is getting weaker.

    – If you look at the correlation between successive two seasons’ worth of A260 data, you’ll see the correlation is small but significant, between .24 and .37. This is what I was getting at yesterday with the smaller A2 counts. Tulsky concluded that A260 isn’t a part of a forward’s offensive talent. You just need to give it more time to see that it is.

    – And, if you go by Tulsky’s view that P160 measures talent and A260 is just noise, you’d expect to find no correlation between the two metrics when you look at career numbers. But you do find it. For forwards who’ve played at least 1000 minutes since 07-08, the correlation between P160 and A260 is .54. If P160 measures a forward’s offensive talent, then A260 is clearly related to whatever P160 is measuring.

    – Secondary assists help us measure a forward’s offensive contribution. Including them yields better predictions for future scoring. (There’s still a lot of uncertainty in the predictions when you use just a single predictor, though.)

  17. --hudson-- says:

    When the Oilers open the season will they play with NHL rink or with the wide ice? Curious if that will make a difference to the deployment and could favour some of the European players in the top 6

  18. Georgexs says:

    While we’re at it, let’s look at the correlation between P60 (in all situations) and EV60 with next season’s P60. Again, like Tulsky, I’m looking at forwards who’ve played at least 60 games in both seasons.

    Season, P60, EV60

    00-01, .69, .61
    01-02, .77, .68
    02-03, .70, .62
    03-04, .62, .52
    05-06, .80, .66
    06-07, .81, .72
    07-08, .76, .64
    08-09, .75, .66
    09-10, .76, .66
    10-11, .70, .63
    13-14, .76, .69
    14-15, .75, .63
    15-16, .68, .59
    16-17, .67, .55

    And, here’s the correlation between P60 and EV60 with next season’s P60:

    Season, P60, EV60

    00-01, .59, .58
    01-02, .62, .59
    02-03, .56, .55
    03-04, .51, .47
    05-06, .69, .61
    06-07, .70, .68
    07-08, .63, .57
    08-09, .63, .59
    09-10, .64, .58
    10-11, .60, .57
    13-14, .65, .63
    14-15, .62, .56
    15-16, .53, .50
    16-17, .54, .48

    – With the parameters I’ve laid out above, not only is P60 better than EV60 at predicting future P60, it’s better than EV60 at predicting future EV60 as well.

  19. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    Thanks for that.

    I’m going to ask you to be my answer monkey and put up one more table, I hope you don’t mind since you probably have the data up:

    1) P1/60 correlation to P1/60 the next year (both for all and just for forwards)

    Edit – for both 5v5 and all situations please

  20. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    In your 2nd post is all p/60 for all situations or are you looking at correlations with 5v5 p/60?

  21. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    In regards to both Lucic in the top 6 and where JP starts, I think this is worth re-visiting:

    17/18
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
    48 minutes (micro sample)
    CF% 53.6
    Scoring Chance % 65.9
    High Danger Scoring Chance % 76.9
    Goals % 33 (2-4)

    Small sample, but they seems to own the ice except for goals, I’d try that again.

    Here’s Lucic-Draisaitl without Puljujvarvi
    230min
    CF% 51.3
    Scoring Chance % 50.5
    High Danger Scoring Chance % 48.7
    Goals % 38.5 (10-16)

    That duo seemed to have benefited from Puljujarvi quite a bit.

    I think we see that at some point in pre-season.

  22. digger50 says:

    I’m curious to see if Kassian gets a different role this year.

    Will the new coaches see something in him? Speed? Agitator? Suppress his negatives and promote his strengths? He is another player that plays better with regular linemates and a clear role.

    These other coaches have watched him from afar, they may see him boxed into 4RW as well. I hope not. Here is hoping they manage to bring his best play out.

    A motivated Kassian In front of the net is a load very few d men can contend with.

  23. verite says:

    why does this blog not focus on the only issue that matters
    When is the abject incompetent Chiarelli fired?
    Whnn
    Nothing else matters

  24. Georgexs says:

    I matched the corsica data to the nhl.com data using player names. Very few players didn’t match by name (it looks like a lot of Alexandre’s in one data set and Alex’s in the other). I can fix that later. But just looking at the data so far, I can add another column to the table I prepared above. Here’s what I get for the correlation between 5v5 P60, 5v5 P160, and all situations P60 with next season’s 5v5 P60. (Again looking at forwards who played in 60 games in both seasons.)

    Season, P60 (5v5), P160 (5v5), P60 (All)

    07-08, .53, .52, .62
    08-09, .58, .57, .62
    09-10, .56, .55, .63
    10-11, .56, .55, .58
    13-14, .63, .60, .63
    14-15, .51, .48, .60
    15-16, .41, .41, .50
    16-17, .44, .41, .52

    – So, by the conditions outlined above, a forward’s current scoring rate in all situations (P60) is a better predictor of future 5v5 P60 than current 5v5 P60 or 5v5 P160.

    – What does this mean? If you want to know how a forward is going to do in terms of generating offense at 5v5 in the future, look at how he’s generating offense in all situations in the present.

    – When you carve up his offense into smaller bins (e.g., just 5v5) or you carve out secondary assists (e.g., 5v5 P160), you lose information and your predictions get worse.

    – Isn’t that something!

  25. quade says:

    Did anybody else read “The Stanley Cup blueprint” by Craig Custance over at the Athletic? For those of you who haven’t, It compares every team in the league to the Capitals’ blueprint of a stanley cup winner, giving each team a “yes” or “no” or “half marks” in 5 categories: Great centers, a game breaker, offensive defensemen, a core hardened by the playoffs & Size.

    He just did his Pacific breakdown, and I was mainly curious to ask everyone’s opinion on the comparison between Calgary’s roster & Edmonton’s. The Flames got a rating of 3.5, while the Oilers got a 2. I was just curious to ask the community here, if you would rank the Flames that much higher than the Oilers on their current projected rosters? And, do you guys generally think the Flames will have the better roster this year?

    I won’t go in to details on the ratings from the article, because I don’t want to steal the article’s thunder, and it is worth a read – at least for the fun of it. Mainly I just think that it may be fair to say that the Oilers roster might get a higher mark if it were compared to the Penguins rosters from their past two championships. I think comparing the Oilers to a team where their two biggest stars are centres would be more apt, rather than comparing them to a team that’s biggest star is a winger. That naturally gives the Flames the advantage, I think.

    I thought it might be more fun to bring this up on Lowetide, rather than duke it out with all the other team’s fans on the Athletic, since you get a lot of nastiness pretty easily that way. I hope it doesn’t break protocol on the message board, here.

  26. frjohnk says:

    Georgexs:
    I matched the corsica data to the nhl.com data using player names. Very few players didn’t match by name (it looks like a lot of Alexandre’s in one data set and Alex’s in the other). I can fix that later. But just looking at the data so far, I can add another column to the table I prepared above. Here’s what I get for the correlation between 5v5 P60, 5v5 P160, and all situations P60 with next season’s 5v5 P60. (Again looking at forwards who played in 60 games in both seasons.)

    Season, P60 (5v5), P160 (5v5), P60 (All)

    07-08, .53, .52, .62
    08-09, .58, .57, .62
    09-10, .56, .55, .63
    10-11, .56, .55, .58
    13-14, .63, .60, .63
    14-15, .51, .48, .60
    15-16, .41, .41, .50
    16-17, .44, .41, .52

    – So, by the conditions outlined above, a forward’s current scoring rate in all situations (P60) is a better predictor of future 5v5 P60 than current 5v5 P60 or 5v5 P160.

    – What does this mean? If you want to know how a forward is going to do in terms of generating offense at 5v5 in the future, look at how he’s generating offense in all situations in the present.

    – When you carve up his offense into smaller bins (e.g., just 5v5) or you carve out secondary assists (e.g., 5v5 P160), you lose information and your predictions get worse.

    – Isn’t that something!

    I know I am asking for you to do more work but I wonder if you put these players into bins that were sorted by age.

    Im thinking something like age 18-22, 23-30, 31-

    My thinking is that
    – there would be less correlation year to year in the 18-22 pool as this group is trying to establish themselves and here we do see big jumps year over year in offensive production.

    -strongest correlations year over year would be in the 23-30 pool as offensive production is mostly stable here

    -31 to retirement pool would have the lowest correlations as this is the group that is starting to head over the cliff.

  27. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I think its likely that Yamamoto starts the season in the AHL and that is due to Mr. Evan Bouchard and my belief that the team will keep 8D and 13F if Bouchard breaks camp with the team.

    Yamamoto is in a battle with Rattie and, while I have little doubt that Yamamoto will produce just as much as Rattie, the team likely puts much value in Rattie’s $800K cap hit.

    How long will it take Rattie to be a drag on the top line? The possession numbers were much worse than the goal share last year (and possession numbers are more meaningful in short samples) and, without Nuge, McDavid and Rattie got killed.

    —————————————

    On that note, I’m not in the know about the expanded rosters due to Europe.I don’t imagine that means that can over 23 (and our cap situation wouldn’t allow that in any event) but does it mean they can carry a few extra non-roster players with the team until they return home?Yamamoto could be one such non-roster player that remains with the team.

    If Rattie gets 10-15goals on the top line by Christmas I’m not sure how you push him out of that spot. Everybody seems to think Aberg isn’t going to get a fair chance, if this is the case, the coaching change should have a full house clean. The team is going to need to use every piece of the puzzle irregardless of what happened last year, or there is no hope of improveing.

  28. Side says:

    quade:
    Did anybody else read “The Stanley Cup blueprint” by Craig Custance over at the Athletic?For those of you who haven’t, It compares every team in the league to the Capitals’ blueprint of a stanley cup winner,giving each team a “yes” or “no” or “half marks” in 5 categories: Great centers, a game breaker, offensive defensemen, a core hardened by the playoffs & Size.

    He just did his Pacific breakdown, and I was mainly curious to ask everyone’s opinion on the comparison between Calgary’s roster & Edmonton’s.The Flames got a rating of 3.5, while the Oilers got a 2.I was just curious to ask the community here, if you would rank the Flames that much higher than the Oilers on their current projected rosters?And, do you guys generally think the Flames will have the better roster this year?

    I won’t go in to details on the ratings from the article, because I don’t want to steal the article’s thunder, and it is worth a read – at least for the fun of it.Mainly I just think that it may be fair to say that the Oilers roster might get a higher mark if it were compared to the Penguins rosters from their past two championships.I think comparing the Oilers to a team where their two biggest stars are centres would be more apt, rather than comparing them to a team that’s biggest star is a winger.That naturally gives the Flames the advantage, I think.

    I thought it might be more fun to bring this up on Lowetide, rather than duke it out with all the other team’s fans on the Athletic, since you get a lot of nastiness pretty easily that way.I hope it doesn’t break protocol on the message board, here.

    I feel like the Flames lately are always getting these endorsements or pats on the back from analysts, and then they always find some way to screw it all up, not as bad as the Oilers, but they still screw it all up. I don’t see this year being any different, really. I can see the Oilers being ahead of the Flames.

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs:
    I matched the corsica data to the nhl.com data using player names. Very few players didn’t match by name (it looks like a lot of Alexandre’s in one data set and Alex’s in the other). I can fix that later. But just looking at the data so far, I can add another column to the table I prepared above. Here’s what I get for the correlation between 5v5 P60, 5v5 P160, and all situations P60 with next season’s 5v5 P60. (Again looking at forwards who played in 60 games in both seasons.)

    Season, P60 (5v5), P160 (5v5), P60 (All)

    07-08, .53, .52, .62
    08-09, .58, .57, .62
    09-10, .56, .55, .63
    10-11, .56, .55, .58
    13-14, .63, .60, .63
    14-15, .51, .48, .60
    15-16, .41, .41, .50
    16-17, .44, .41, .52

    – So, by the conditions outlined above, a forward’s current scoring rate in all situations (P60) is a better predictor of future 5v5 P60 than current 5v5 P60 or 5v5 P160.

    – What does this mean? If you want to know how a forward is going to do in terms of generating offense at 5v5 in the future, look at how he’s generating offense in all situations in the present.

    – When you carve up his offense into smaller bins (e.g., just 5v5) or you carve out secondary assists (e.g., 5v5 P160), you lose information and your predictions get worse.

    – Isn’t that something!

    Thanks for the work.

    If find it very surprising that all situation pts/60 predicts 5v5 that well.

    Did you get a chance to check what predicts 5v5 P1/60 best?

  30. JimmyV1965 says:

    quade:
    Did anybody else read “The Stanley Cup blueprint” by Craig Custance over at the Athletic?For those of you who haven’t, It compares every team in the league to the Capitals’ blueprint of a stanley cup winner,giving each team a “yes” or “no” or “half marks” in 5 categories: Great centers, a game breaker, offensive defensemen, a core hardened by the playoffs & Size.

    He just did his Pacific breakdown, and I was mainly curious to ask everyone’s opinion on the comparison between Calgary’s roster & Edmonton’s.The Flames got a rating of 3.5, while the Oilers got a 2.I was just curious to ask the community here, if you would rank the Flames that much higher than the Oilers on their current projected rosters?And, do you guys generally think the Flames will have the better roster this year?

    I won’t go in to details on the ratings from the article, because I don’t want to steal the article’s thunder, and it is worth a read – at least for the fun of it.Mainly I just think that it may be fair to say that the Oilers roster might get a higher mark if it were compared to the Penguins rosters from their past two championships.I think comparing the Oilers to a team where their two biggest stars are centres would be more apt, rather than comparing them to a team that’s biggest star is a winger.That naturally gives the Flames the advantage, I think.

    I thought it might be more fun to bring this up on Lowetide, rather than duke it out with all the other team’s fans on the Athletic, since you get a lot of nastiness pretty easily that way.I hope it doesn’t break protocol on the message board, here.

    No disrespect to Custance, but if goaltending isn’t on the list it really sinks the entire article. I didn’t read the article, however, but goaltending should be the number one criteria.

    I find comparisons to the Flames fascinating. I try to look at things objectively, but it’s so very hard to leave your biases at the door, doubly so with the team down south.

    IMO I don’t think the Flames have a game breaker. We have at least one and if you go by the playoffs we might have two with Drai. The Flames have good Cs, but we are better with Drai at #2. And I may be in the minority here, but I think the Derek Ryan signing was one of the worst of the off season. IMO our 1C is better than theirs, our 2C is better than theirs and our 3C is better than theirs.

    Even I have to admit the Flames have us on defence. But what happens when Gio hits the wall? He will be 35 when the season starts. We definitely have them in size. In fact, the Flames look to be smaller this year and they weren’t big to begin with. As for playoff experience I’m not sure how to evaluate this. Both teams are lacking in that dept, although we have at least won a round.

    The X factor IMO is McDavid. It’s hard to underestimate what a difference he makes in the outcome of a game. I know this is a gross simplification, but if he plays 25 min a game, you are basically winning the goal scoring battle 42% of the time. All you need to do is figure out the remaining portion of the game.

    Having said all this, the Flames might have the best team on paper in the Pacific. They’ve made some high-profile additions and they have a balanced line up. However, they have to win now because some key pieces are getting older and their farm system is getting weaker all the time.

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    Love the RE dev stuff.

    Something that jumped out at me: Ryan Strome really played that little?

    That’s the cherry on top of their purported disappointment with the acquisition. Crazy.

    It was so odd, all this pre-season talk about Strome picking up his shooting rates to be McDavid’s wing-man. He starts there for the first day of camp, plays a game and half, does OK (1 goal I believe), then gets taken off, essentially never to be seen again.

    He played 56 minutes with McDavid at evens and 193 with Drai.

    His most common linemates with Khaira, Puljujarvi, Lucic and Caggulia.

    Its odd how little time he saw in the top 6 considering the lines were doing better with him on them than without.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Golf is so much better when Tiger is in contention.

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    I like the idea of JP with McD and Nuge, and Yama with Leon and Lucic. To me it evens the lines attributes more and gives Yama someone to step in for him when somebody decides to be stupid.

    It all comes down to Leon getting support to break even and the bottom 6 playing far better. It’s not a huge stretch really.

    Here is hoping those are the top two lines once Bouchard is re-assigned to London and Yamamoto recalled (I think they carry 8D until Bouchard is re-assigned).

    This is also contingent on Lucic providing some value in the top 6.

    If those are the top two lines around Christmas, I think things are going well.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    –hudson–:
    When the Oilers open the season will they play with NHL rink or with the wide ice?Curious if that will make a difference to the deployment and could favour some of the European players in the top 6

    I’m quite confident it will be NHL regulation ice but I’m really just guessing on that. I would think it has to be. The big ice changes the game completely.

    I can’t recall what’s been done in the past.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: The Oilers should be telling Lucic that he should be their Kessel, outscoring on the 3rd line.Almost winning a Conn Smythe on the 3rd line.

    The benefit, to this season and beyond, to Lucic bouncing back in the top 6 are so big that it should be given a legit chance, in my opinion.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    In your 2nd post is all p/60 for all situations or are you looking at correlations with 5v5 p/60?

    Ughh.

    I’ve been trying to focus more on P1/60 than straight P/60 but now I wonder if I should be reversing that trend.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    I’m curious to see if Kassian gets a different role this year.

    Will the new coaches see something in him? Speed? Agitator? Suppress his negatives and promote his strengths? He is another player that plays better with regular linemates and a clear role.

    These other coaches have watched him from afar, they may see him boxed into 4RW as well. I hope not. Here is hoping they manage to bring his best play out.

    A motivated Kassian In front of the net is a load very few d men can contend with.

    Kassian has to earn his spot in the lineup and any move up the lineup in my mind.

    He stopped doing what made him successful last year which is to use his speed to get in on the forecheck and bang bodies. He must be aggressive night in and night out to be successful, not just for a game or two here and there.

    That’s a tough style to play night in and night out but that’s what he needs to do – others are able to (Tom Wilson for example).

    I don’t buy that the coaches told guys like Kassian to not be aggressive for fear of taking penalties.

  38. Georgexs says:

    Sure.

    Same conditions as before: forwards playing 60 games or more in both seasons.

    Correlation between metric in current season and 5v5 P160 next season;

    Season, P160, P60, EV60, P60 (All)

    07-08, .51, .52, .56, .61
    08-09, .56, .56, .54, .59
    09-10, .53, .53, .52, .59
    10-11, .55, .55, .54, .57
    13-14, .59, .61, .59, .60
    14-15, .46, .48, .51, .57
    15-16, .35, .33, .39, .41
    16-17, .47, .49, .50, .53

    – P60 typically predicts P160 better than P160.

    – P60 (all situations) always predicts P160 better than P160.

  39. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    In your 2nd post is all p/60 for all situations or are you looking at correlations with 5v5 p/60?

    Correlations with P60 all situations, i.e., a forward’s total scoring rate.

  40. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    I don’t buy that the coaches told guys like Kassian to not be aggressive for fear of taking penalties.

    How come you don’t buy that? Oilers were historically bad on the penalty kill. It sewered them for many games. Plus, Kassian was one of their favored PKers. I could easily see the coaches telling someone like Kassian to ease off the aggression as a way to stop the bleeding that is their PK.

  41. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs:
    Sure.

    Same conditions as before: forwards playing 60 games or more in both seasons.

    Correlation between metric in current season and 5v5 P160 next season;

    Season, P160, P60, EV60, P60 (All)

    07-08, .51, .52, .56, .61
    08-09, .56, .56, .54, .59
    09-10, .53, .53, .52, .59
    10-11, .55, .55, .54, .57
    13-14, .59, .61, .59, .60
    14-15, .46, .48, .51, .57
    15-16, .35, .33, .39, .41
    16-17, .47, .49, .50, .53

    – P60 typically predicts P160 better than P160.

    – P60 (all situations) always predicts P160 better than P160.

    Awesome.

    Thanks for the work.

    I’m floored that including 5v4 pts improves the correlation.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: If Rattie gets 10-15goals on the top line by Christmas I’m not sure how you push him out of that spot. Everybody seems to think Aberg isn’t going to get a fair chance, if this is the case, the coaching change should have a full house clean. The team is going to need to use every piece of the puzzle irregardless of what happened last year, or there is no hope of improveing.

    I don’t disagree on Rattie although that is a big if (although I have no doubt he will produce on that line – he does know how to find space in the offensive zone).

    I’m thinking of a scenario where he does have decent production but yet the line is at 50% goal share or only slightly above.

    I agree on Aberg. I don’t know what’s in McLellan’s head but I can see Aberg continuing to be in the dog-house from the one mistake. I could be totally wrong but its a feeling I have. If its the case, its not acceptable – there needs to be a clean slate there or there is no reason to have Pontus in the organization.

    With his $675K contract and offensive ability there is a good chance for a nice value contract there.

    The coaching staff needs to give that asset a chance.

  43. Georgexs says:

    frjohnk: I know I am asking for you to do more work but I wonder if you put these players into bins that were sorted by age.

    Im thinking something like age 18-22, 23-30, 31-

    My thinking is that
    – there would be less correlation year to year in the 18-22pool as this group is trying to establish themselves and here we do see big jumps year over year in offensive production.

    -strongest correlations year over year would be in the 23-30 pool as offensive production is mostly stable here

    -31 to retirement pool would have the lowest correlations as this is the group that is starting to head over the cliff.

    You should explore this if it interests you. I know people have looked at aging curves and have come away not completely satisfied.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Side: How come you don’t buy that? Oilers were historically bad on the penalty kill. It sewered them for many games.Plus, Kassian was one of their favored PKers.I could easily see the coaches telling someone like Kassian to ease off the aggression as a way to stop the bleeding that is their PK.

    I just don’t buy it. The Oilers were among the leaders in hits for the year and it wasn’t because they were chasing the puck all game as they were positive possession for most of the year I believe.

    The Oilers PK didn’t end up historically bad – it didn’t even end up worst in the league, it was 25th I believe and #1 on the road.

  45. frjohnk says:

    Georgexs: You should explore this if it interests you. I know people have looked at aging curves and have come away not completely satisfied.

    Maybe a winter project.

    On another note, you really should have a blog to so your data can be easily found. That was some great data mining. Thanks

  46. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    It didn’t end up being historically bad in the end, but at the low point in the season, it was really that bad. At that point the season was already gone and confidence was already lost. The rest of the season, imo, was getting players to regain their confidence, Kassian included.

  47. rickithebear says:

    Thanks Fro johnK

    Damn right Same age of peers.

    But all this means nothing without a true baseline.
    100min + avg of teamates x TOI with for each Linemate / Total TOI.
    You get expected WOWY Production.
    Then compare to actual.

    Still do it regularly.

    Jaxon:
    Add Yosts work to the list of inaccurate linear anslytics.

  48. frjohnk says:

    quade:
    Did anybody else read “The Stanley Cup blueprint” by Craig Custance over at the Athletic?For those of you who haven’t, It compares every team in the league to the Capitals’ blueprint of a stanley cup winner,giving each team a “yes” or “no” or “half marks” in 5 categories: Great centers, a game breaker, offensive defensemen, a core hardened by the playoffs & Size.

    He just did his Pacific breakdown, and I was mainly curious to ask everyone’s opinion on the comparison between Calgary’s roster & Edmonton’s.The Flames got a rating of 3.5, while the Oilers got a 2.I was just curious to ask the community here, if you would rank the Flames that much higher than the Oilers on their current projected rosters?And, do you guys generally think the Flames will have the better roster this year?

    I won’t go in to details on the ratings from the article, because I don’t want to steal the article’s thunder, and it is worth a read – at least for the fun of it.Mainly I just think that it may be fair to say that the Oilers roster might get a higher mark if it were compared to the Penguins rosters from their past two championships.I think comparing the Oilers to a team where their two biggest stars are centres would be more apt, rather than comparing them to a team that’s biggest star is a winger.That naturally gives the Flames the advantage, I think.

    I thought it might be more fun to bring this up on Lowetide, rather than duke it out with all the other team’s fans on the Athletic, since you get a lot of nastiness pretty easily that way.I hope it doesn’t break protocol on the message board, here.

    While the Flames may or may not be closer to how the Capitals look roster wise,
    I think there are many different ways to build a Stanley Cup winner

    -Chicago won with 1 number center and “mud centers” after Toews, fantastic strength on the wings and good D

    -LA and Boston won with strength down the middle, an elite Dman who can control a game, good complimentary wingers and size

    -Pens even with a D core that was average at best , won because of the impact forwards up front and playing with speed.

    Looking at the teams from above the main ingredients to winning seem to always include

    -a goalie playing elite in the playoffs
    -good depth throughout the lineup
    -having a bunch of difference makers

    I think the Flames are like the Oilers in which they are missing some of the ingredients that would make them elite. I think both teams need some of their prospects to pan out to get to elite status but with say I think the Oilers are closer than the Flames.

  49. rickithebear says:

    Georges s:

    The prospect data from CHL cannot be trusted.
    So the TOI innacuracy precludes any fiurther effort.

    Modelling Data is guessing at data.
    Without true construct of TOI.

    It is a waste of time.

  50. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: The benefit, to this season and beyond, to Lucic bouncing back in the top 6 are so big that it should be given a legit chance, in my opinion.

    Lucic won’t be bouncing back. The organization and the player should move beyond denial. Or they will sink another season with a bad plan. Start with a realistic plan…i.e. Lucic anchoring the 3rd line. If he surprises, than one has options.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    You are definitely entitled to that opinion (not fact).

    I’m fairly confident he’ll be better than last year – 55 points? Probably not but Dustin Brown might have something to say about bouncing back.

  52. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georgexs: Correlations with P60 all situations, i.e., a forward’s total scoring rate.

    – intuitively your finding that the the best predictor for scoring in one season is scoring the previous season makes sense

    – I think the mental hurdle some have to get over is the thought that that last pass is the most important I.e. passing to the guy in the open net. Sure there are some assists that create “easy” goals but let’s not forget that all things being equal once you pass the puck it’s up to the guy who gets the puck.

    – so your not more likely to create goals from the first pas or the second: it’s not up to the passer what happens next

    – finally the better players play with better players so they are touching the puck more and creating more scoring chances.

    – eliminating the 2nd pass just eliminates too much data. The best players score more points. Too much randomness to parse 1st or 2nd pass as you’ve demonstrated.

  53. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Kassian has to earn his spot in the lineup and any move up the lineup in my mind.

    He stopped doing what made him successful last year which is to use his speed to get in on the forecheck and bang bodies.He must be aggressive night in and night out to be successful, not just for a game or two here and there.

    That’s a tough style to play night in and night out but that’s what he needs to do – others are able to (Tom Wilson for example).

    I don’t buy that the coaches told guys like Kassian to not be aggressive for fear of taking penalties.

    My point is more about Kassian perceived value from the coaches perspective. He could literally run right over Jessie P with Rattie under one arm and Yamamoto under the other. Yet is has been pigeonholed in my opinion. As coach was trying everyone and thier dog up on the wings, Zack was pretty well stapled to 4RW.

    Maybe there isn’t more to his game. I’d like to find out.

    And let’s not forget about Todd’s performance. In my opinion the poor coaching all around played the biggest part in a lost season. I honestly believe Todd has no idea what to do with him, and Todd has played a huge part in deciding who is no longer on the team.

  54. Scungilli Slushy says:

    digger50: My point is more about Kassian perceived value from the coaches perspective. He could literally run right over Jessie P with Rattie under one arm and Yamamoto under the other. Yet is has been pigeonholed in my opinion. As coach was trying everyone and thier dog up on the wings, Zack was pretty well stapled to 4RW.

    Maybe there isn’t more to his game. I’d like to find out.

    And let’s not forget about Todd’s performance. In my opinion the poor coaching all around played the biggest part in a lost season.I honestly believe Todd has no idea what to do with him, and Todd has played a huge part in deciding who is no longer on the team.

    Zach`s speed and skill are easy to see. He was a first rounder. He is also not a rookie, and has not been able to move up line ups and stick despite having the traits every NHL team wants in it`s top 6 – fast, skilled, big and a great fighter.

    Zach`s problem like most players is between his ears – consistency and effort. He`s been unreliable defensively which is the biggest problem, and can`t cash the multiple chances he gets. He hasn`t in his career. like most, been able to do it every game.

    I think he today is a middle 6 talent, but his free spirit works against him as an NHL player.

  55. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Awesome.

    Thanks for the work.

    I’m floored that including 5v4 pts improves the correlation.

    Including 5v4 allows us to capture coaches’ assessments of who their best offensive options are. Apparently those assessments (and the resulting 5v4 performance) contain some useful information on a forward’s “true” offensive ability.

  56. Scungilli Slushy says:

    A real model for young non drafted players would be NHLE and and assessment of their background.

    Family background and injuries tell the majority of the tale of who makes it IMO. Outside of not being able to score in lower leagues.

    Relative emotional health, a support network, ability. Like it is for everyone.

  57. Georgexs says:

    frjohnk: Maybe a winter project.

    On another note, you really should have a blog to so your data can be easily found. That was some great data mining.Thanks

    Thanks as well.

    Almost everything I’ve done on here is easy to recreate. Usually takes half an hour at most. If anything, it’s writing it up that takes time.

    I was a casual fan before CMD, watched when they were on HNIC… sometimes. And I only started looking at the data after his first season. I found it weird that they didn’t win more than they did when he was in the lineup.

    Having been on here for a couple of years, I see the long-standing, um, skepticism folks have towards Oilers management. Like all of us, I think it would be a monumental shame for the org. to not be first-rate during the prime of CMD’s career. Like a lot of us, I’m trying to figure out what being first-rate means.

  58. Georgexs says:

    rickithebear:
    Georges s:

    The prospect data from CHL cannot be trusted.
    So the TOI innacuracy precludes any fiurther effort.

    Modelling Data is guessing at data.
    Without true construct of TOI.

    It is a waste of time.

    I’ve never looked at prospect data, Ricki.

    LT mentioned prospect-stats.com at some point this week.

    I’ll probably give it a shot despite the warning.

  59. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lucic as 2LW vs. Lucic as 3LW – that will be a storyline to watch.

    Personally, although I can find sexier options for 2LW, I think its important that Lucic is given the opportunity to grab that spot.A Lucic return to a semblance of his old 5 on 5 form, previous Oiler 5 on 5 form, in the top 6 would be huge for the organization.I’m not talking 55 points but 20-25-45 and not a drag on transition.To me the positives are:

    1) well, Lucic producing in the 40-50 point range has primary benefits
    2) Lucic as 2LW should keep Rieder on the 3rd line (s/t health) which I believe is the best place for his skillset
    3) Lucic with a semblance of bounce back is massive for a potential off-season disposition that doesn’t require a sweetener or huge retention – i.e. it could reduce the negative value.

    Come on Milan!

    why? Deployment has to be what is best for the team!

  60. Wilde says:

    Georgexs: Including 5v4 allows us to capture coaches’ assessments of who their best offensive options are. Apparently those assessments (and the resulting 5v4 performance) contain some useful information on a forward’s “true” offensive ability.

    Or, it’s a tell on length of leash.

  61. Wilde says:

    Another factor in all sit. rates correlation with future es rates could possibly be the lower year-to-year turnover in powerplay linemates than 5v5 linemates

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: why?Deployment has to be what is best for the team!

    Yes, it does and, what’s best for the team is if Lucic is able to produce at 2LW rates like he has for the majority of his career at 5 on 5.

    He hasn’t been able to do so for 2 years how so the chances of him rebounding to to do so this year are likely less than 50%, however, the man just turned 30 this summer, his skills and ability have not just fallen off a cliff I don’t think. There is a chance he could provide decent 2nd line production and, if he can, that is the best deployment of our current forward assets – in various ways

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