Riesen to Believe 2018 Volume 1

by Lowetide

Tracking training camp rosters in some NHL cities is pretty easy. Players are signed, invites extended and in the week between Labor Day and rookie camp you have a piece of foolscap with a bunch of names on it from the NHL team. The Edmonton Oilers don’t do that kind of thing anymore so it means amateur sleuths such as myself have a mid-summer challenge! I have 61 names so far! Let’s get to it!

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

GOALTENDERS

  1. Cam Talbot, 31. Save percentage fell from .919 to .908, one of the major factors in a frustrating season. Management is showing faith in him, suspect we will see his games played total (73 and 67 the last two seasons) decrease this year. 100%.
  2. Mikko Koskinen, 30. His KHL save percentages are solid to excellent over the last six seasons, with a .937 SP during the 2017-18 campaign earning Koskinen a substantial NHL deal. He would have to fall apart in training camp to miss the roster. 90%
  3. Al Montoya, 33. The last time he saw the minors was 2010-11 and I don’t think he’ll see Bakersfield this winter—but it’s possible. A minor trade before or during training camp is likely, although he would be excellent insurance. I’d love to know what happened, the organization seemed strong on him when he arrived. 10%
  4. Shane Starrett, 24. He wasn’t impressive at all first year pro, posting a .912 save percentage in 38 games with the Wichita Thunder (ECHL) and an .895SP in three games for the Condors. I’m not sure where he lands this fall, seems to me the minor league goalies are applying for all jobs available.
  5. Dylan Wells, 20. His uneven junior career (Peterborough save percentages of .893, .871, .916, .896) now over, we’ll see how well he handles pro hockey. The Petes allowed the most shots against per game (36) in the OHL 2017-18, perhaps Wells will flourish in his new surroundings.
  6. Stuart Skinner, 19. His four seasons of junior were stronger than Wells (SP of .909, .920, .905 and .905) and I do think he’s a better prospect. I’ve long ago stopped trying to figure out goaltenders, but Skinner has a solid resume and spiked after the trade to Swift Current.
  7. Olivier Rodrigue, 18. Oilers are drafting a better class of goalie these days, or at least I believe that to be true. We’ll see about Rodrigue, he was highly rated in his draft year.

THE GENIUS OF PUCK IQ

LEFTHANDED DEFENSEMEN

  1. Oscar Klefbom, 25. Klefbom had some tough moments during a season with injuries, but as the Puck IQ numbers show there are good things about him. He’s a lock for the roster, my guess is first pairing opening night and a 40-poing season in 2018-19.  100%.
  2. Darnell Nurse, 23. Nurse performed well defensively and added some offensive output (his 5-on-5 per 60 was 0.93, No. 58 among regular NHL defensemen). He has some room to grow but appears to be delivering on the promise of his draft day. 100%.
  3. Andrej Sekera, 32. How close to full Rej will he be on opening night? That’s the question. He is a brilliant passer and filthy in overtime, plus he can defend against quality. On the other hand, he is now 32 and that’s a factor—especially coming back from injury. 100%.
  4. Kevin Gravel, 26. He has played in 70 NHL games (1-9-10) and a year ago seemed poised to be a Los Angeles Kings for years to come. He’s a shutdown type, better speed and younger than Eric Gryba. He’s 6.04, 212 but appears to use finesse defensively more than the redass. 40%
  5. Keegan Lowe, 25. The edge Lowe had on Dillon Simpson involved a more aggressive style and I think that benefits Lowe in the race for the No. 7 job against Gravel. I don’t think he’ll win the job outright, but bet Lowe plays more than two games for the Oilers in 2018-19. 10%
  6. Ryan Stanton, 29. Injuries impacted his usage (and probably derailed a recall) in 2017-18 but his rugged style is a match for the Oilers. If he shows well in training camp, he might push Gravel for the No. 7 job. 10%
  7. Caleb Jones, 21. He struggled in his rookie season with Bakersfield, but the tools (speed, skill) suggest he could arrive quickly if he can put it all together. It may seem like a stretch, and Jones’ numbers a year ago didn’t move the needle, but the talent is undeniable. 5%
  8. William Lagesson, 22. Since being drafted, Lagesson has been making strides at each stop along the way. He will play in Bakersfield this season but should he play well there, we might see him in Edmonton before season’s end. 5%
  9. Dmitri Samorukov, 19. He’s progressing nicely (Jonathan Willis has an article up at The Athletic, link above) and it will be interesting to see how long Samorukov hangs around in training camp. Solid to very good last year in the OHL, played well in an AHL cup of coffee.
  10. Jake Kulevich, 25. Big shutdown type played with the Manitoba Moose last season, I expect he’ll see action in both Wichita and Bakersfield. AHL deal. 
  11. Marc-Olivier Crevier-Morin, 22. Physical defender from the QMJHL who had a solid debut with the Wichita Thunder in 2017-18. He’s a depth player but looks like a solid pro based on one season. AHL deal
  12. Jared Wilson, 23. Not much on him, he came up through the AJHL and BCHL and then played for RPI (NCAA) where he scored more goals than you would expect for an obscure rearguard. AHL deal

RIGHTHANDED DEFENSEMEN

  1. Adam Larsson, 25. Larsson had a trying season on and off the ice, but the results against elites (above) were solid once again. He has more to give at both ends of the ice, in my opinion. The big question for me: Will he play with Klefbom or Nurse on the top pairing in 2018-19? 100%.
  2. L Kris Russell, 31. Someone mentions every season he’s a lefty, but it’s likely the veteran will once again play RH side and my guess is plenty of second pairing. I think he would be most effective on the third pair (LH side) and that’s something for the team to work on. 100%.
  3. Matt Benning, 24. He performed well against elites but didn’t play as much as the others in that situation. I’m in favor of moving him up to the second pair, but my estimates have the coach running Russell in that role for the coming year. 100%.
  4. Evan Bouchard, 18. I’ve been convinced for some time Bouchard has an excellent chance to make the big club (my model has him playing nine games). I don’t think anything that has happened since draft day has changed Edmonton’s thinking: They want to do the right thing and send him back, but they are going to give him a chance. 50%
  5. Ethan Bear, 21. Bear posted a strong first year pro, playing well in Bakersfield and adding responsibilities all along the way. He was exposed defensively during his NHL audition but also showed good offensive potential. He is a good passer, and what’s more, he makes good decisions in terms of the target he’s sending away. 20%
  6. Joel Persson, 24. He isn’t going to be at training camp but I wanted to mention Persson as a potential contributor anyway. The Oilers didn’t grab that big power-play option over the summer, and with Evan Bouchard so young, perhaps the team will change their minds and bring him over early? It’s a thought.
  7. Ryan Mantha, 22. The concern is his eye injury and only time will tell. He was quality in Bakersfield and might have gotten a call if he had stayed healthy. A bitter pill, here’s hoping he can make it back to previous levels and continue to push.
  8. Logan Day, 23. Only geeks like me noticed, but Day was a big offensive player in college and might have an impact in Bakersfield. AHL deal. 
  9. Justin Lemcke, 21. I always liked him in the OHL and suspect he’ll be a popular player in Wichita this coming season. Minor league deal. 

CENTER

  1. Connor McDavid, 21. Per 82 games in his entry-level deal, 97 scored 34-66-100. Elite player, he could post higher numbers and reach an even higher gear. A 125-point season hasn’t been seen since Jumbo Joe in 2005-06. Stand back!  100%.
  2. Leon Draisaitl, 22. Leon’s big contract negotiations were the story a year ago, his offense fell from .939 points-per-game to .897—and many fans were outraged. Considering the injury and the power play, I think he did fine. Huge season to come, can his line outscore the opposition? I think he’ll play 30 percent of his season with 97. 100%. 
  3. Ryan Strome, 25For much of the season I thought Strome was a goner, but he started to come around on a road trip in November (Grey Cup Sunday) when he found some chem with Leon Draisaitl. I think he’ll play better this year and will take on more of the chores. 100%.
  4. Kyle Brodziak, 34. Brodziak is at the point in his career where the next poor season probably takes him out of the league, but it’s been some time since he was truly poor. Edmonton can use him in multiple roles, perhaps most importantly on the penalty kill. I don’t see him emerging as a Letestu-type offensive contributor. 100%
  5. Brad Malone, 29. Malone can play center, wins faceoffs, penalty kills and it won’t hurt him to sit in the pressbox for long stretches. He looked good during his recalls last season, although there isn’t much offense. 15%.
  6. Cooper Marody, 21. Some buzz around Marody, whose final college season (40, 16-35-51) for Michigan was a quality junior season. He is one of the group on this fall’s roster who could surprise and push for a job. 5%.
  7. Josh Currie, 25. The nature of his contract tells me the club either sees him as a possible option for NHL play (this is unlikely) or it’s getting more difficult to sign AHL centers these days. He got a signing bonus and will make $160,000 in year two of the deal.
  8. Tyler Vesel, 24. His time is now, despite the fact Vesel has never played a game of pro hockey. That said, he has a nice range of skills and will probably fit well into multiple scenarios. Edmonton will need mentors in Bakersfield in the coming seasons, Vesel’s two-way play and college experience might help him in this area.
  9. Cameron Hebig, 21. He’s an interesting player, Jonathan Willis had a look at him not long ago and looked at what his future might look like based on comparables. He averaged 4.6 shots per game, suspect he’ll be used in an offensive role in Bakersfield.
  10. Colin Larkin, 24. He appears to be an offensively shy center who is best suited for a checking and penalty killing role. Unfair to judge him on 16 AHL games (0-2-2) and he can scoot, but it’s an uphill battle for him.
  11. Lane Bauer, 22. He’s in Wichita (on their roster) suspect there’s a good chance Bauer gets an invite to training camp. Minor league deal. 
  12. Ryan McLeod, 19. Fast train rookie with some real promise, this will be a chance for him to see how he shines against older players.

LEFT WINGERS

  1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 25. Nuge could go 30-30-60 and it would still be considered a disappointment for a McDavid LW. Since he arrived in 2015, 97’s LW’s have been rugged types, while RNH brings skill and great edges. It could be a beautiful relationship. 100%.
  2. Milan Lucic, 30. One of the things we should know by Halloween is how much the big man can bring. If he is scoring well at even strength, fans should assume he will come at least part of the way back. 100%.
  3. Drake Caggiula, 24. He scores 13-12-25 per 82 games, but his possession numbers are not strong. Caggiula’s speed gets him into a prominent spot often. If he is unable to post strong outscoring numbers, he could find himself moving down the depth chart. 100%.
  4. Jujhar Khaira, 24. Last year I had him at 70 percent, suggesting it would come down to offense. He scored well based on expectations, and may have done enough to find a home on the No. 3 line with Ryan Strome or No. 4 line with Kyle Brodziak. Khaira is a physical player who can play a rambunctious style, both Chiarelli and McLellan value that player. 100%.
  5. Pontus Aberg, 25. I keep thinking he’ll win a job inside the top 9F, but the Predators are a smart organization and maybe he’s a little shy of being that player in the NHL. Scores 21.7 points per 82 games, you’d guess he would be more productive just watching him. 80%.
  6. Tyler Benson, 20. The largest gap between organization and fans (imo) in regard to prospect evaluation is Benson. Many see his name, think ‘Alex DeBrincat’ and instantly assume Benson is another prospect headed for the lost highway. I think the Oilers believe it’s only a matter of time and where he slots on the depth chart. Should be fun.
  7. Joe Gambardella, 24. This is a player who could surprise. His boxcars in Bakersfield a year ago look pedestrian, but we have to take usage into account. At the very least, expect a larger role in Bakersfield.
  8. Nolan Vesey, 23. He doesn’t have a lot on his resume that stands out, the big question is how much playing time he’ll get with the Condors. Edmonton has hired a bunch of new hands, not sure how this will shake out.
  9. Ostap Safin, 19. He’s a mature prospect physically and has some power forward tendencies. I think he might make the grade based on potential and what’s left to learn in the QMJHL.
  10. Evan Polei, 22. He has slow boots but a fine shot and a nose for the net, Polei should make a living in the minors and who knows maybe he sees the NHL someday. AHL deal. 
  11. Braden Christoffer, 24. Now on a minor league deal, lack of offense was the catch in terms of getting a second NHL contract. No idea where he lands, my guess is Bakersfield. AHL deal. 
  12. Ryan Van Stralen, 24. He scored well (8 goals in 16 games) for Wichita after finishing up at Carleton University, mostly a wild card but he can score in the ECHL. AHL deal. 

RIGHT WINGERS

  1. Ty Rattie, 25. Rattie brings potential for fantastic value for Edmonton. Per 82 games in the NHL so far, he’s 15-17-32. There are examples of players who arrive this late as NHL players and flourish, I imagine he’s been running up hills all summer. 100%.
  2. Tobias Rieder, 25. Edmonton will need him for two-way prowess and penalty killing but that No. 2 right wing job is right there, too. Per 82gp, he’s 14-19-33, I’m looking forward to seeing him play as an Oiler.  100%.
  3. Jesse Puljujarvi, 20. He’s big, strong, talented. Scored 12 goals in a part-time role scored eight goals in the first 22 games of last season. My guess is he blossoms this season, scoring 16-20 goals and establishing himself as a reliable young two-way forward. 100%.
  4. Zack Kassian, 27He fell off from 2016-17 and he’s pricey for the position, but Kassian brings a rugged game and surprising skill for player-type. Edmonton needs secondary scoring and one of these days Kassian is going to score more than seven goals. He absolutely gets enough chances to score 15 a year. 100%.
  5. Kailer Yamamoto, 20. Last year I wrote “Electric skills and another goal scorer. A small winger, he will impress if given chances. If he is here late in camp, the club may give him nine games.” I think he’ll get more than 9 games this season but am less certain about his status on opening night. 50%.
  6. Mitch Callahan, 26. A productive and experienced AHL farmhand signed a year ago with Edmonton, but didn’t deliver much at all. A recovery season is in order.
  7. Patrick Russell, 25. He was one of the last forwards standing at last year’s training camp, he can penalty kill and is rugged. The boots fail him but he might get another long look.
  8. Kirill Maksimov, 19. He’s a sniper, which is rare indeed for these Oilers. I don’t think he’ll get a long look but if they give him a preseason game don’t be surprised if he makes some noise.
  9. John McFarland, 26. He’s a former second-round pick in 2010, has kicked around for years now and is coming back to North America. No expectations. AHL deal. 
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jzed

OriginalPouzar,

Push down the slippery slope, my friend, rehabbing his knee, trying to get back to functional, not surprised at all that he hurt something else below the knee. Other muscles trying to compensate. If he ends up retiring, draw a straight line to that late hit.

Woodguy v2.0

Wilde:
Woodguy v2.0,

I think guys like Tyler Dellow may be over-classifying and compartmentalising ice-time and coupling that with an indirect rejection of the methodology others use for accounting for these usage differences ,without actually issuing a takedown on what guys are doing in their models in regards to this(unless he has and I’ve missed it, in which case I’m all ears)

I have no opinion on the models and I have no idea what goes into them.

I had a look at Manny’s output the other day.

He had Chara and Lindholm ranked the same as Edmundson, Giardi and Murphy.

That’s all I’m going to say about models right now.

Also,

I do know that NHL coaches use players in very specific circumstances, some favourable, some the opposite that significantly impacts their results.

Failure to account for his leads to people like Burtch to proclaim the best Dmen in the NHL to be a list of heavily sheltered 3rd pairing Dmen.

Context matters a lot.

I don’t think Tyler is compartmentalizing too much. I don’t everyone does enough of it.

Once we have puck and player tracking data we will be able to classify TOI into a number of discrete events and will be much more able to compare players as we can control the situations in which we compare them.

Andy Dufresne

OriginalPouzar: Some are, some seem to have a serious issue with me (inducing following me around the internet to disparaging me on various platforms) – somewhat endearing.

I just looked up “internet” in the New Urban Dictionary…it said, and I quote, ” a binary tool where humans (aka other binary tools) follow each other around for the purpose of making disparaging remarks on various platforms”.

Andy Dufresne

bendelson:
Let’s hope the pitchfork crowd gets along with the torch crowd…

There are good people on both sides

OriginalPouzar

VOR:
I want to start by offering some hope to Oilers fans.

There are still many things that could go right for the Oilers defence.

As one example the man from Red Bull might be waiting in Wichita.

Or Kevin Gravel might be better than we think. Pre illness he played 3rd pair and did fine.

Or maybe Ethan Bear might have had a big developmental jump forward. Russell and Bear might be your third pair.

And of course Wilde is right the forwards are the problem. A lack of back checking and puck support can make any D man look bad.

Agreed:

Maybe Ethan Bear takes a huge step forward in his play away from the puck and we can run a 3rd pair of Russell/Bear? Seems unlikely without at least a few months of AHL time.

Maybe Willie Lagesson, with pro experience, earns himself a roster spot on merit and we can run Lagesson/Russell – that one seems a bit out there as well.

Maybe Gravel develops more consistency and runs with that 3LD spot.

Lots of options out there.

I wish we had Sekera but I’m not catastrophizing this too much as I had him slatted for the 3rd pairing.

OriginalPouzar

Wilde: simply, rel is relative to the team average, relt is an aggregate of each individual teammate wowy

I understand rel (and use it) but not sure I understand the other.

VOR

I want to start by offering some hope to Oilers fans.

There are still many things that could go right for the Oilers defence.

As one example the man from Red Bull might be waiting in Wichita.

Or Kevin Gravel might be better than we think. Pre illness he played 3rd pair and did fine.

Or maybe Ethan Bear might have had a big developmental jump forward. Russell and Bear might be your third pair.

And of course Wilde is right the forwards are the problem. A lack of back checking and puck support can make any D man look bad.

Wilde

and basically what WG is saying is that whenever there’s a big ass difference between a guys rel% and relt% in any metric you have to go digging

Wilde

OriginalPouzar:
What is Rel T (as oppossed to simple Rel)?

It seems it takes in to account linemates but how?

simply, rel is relative to the team average, relt is an aggregate of each individual teammate wowy

Wilde

Woodguy v2.0,

I think guys like Tyler Dellow may be over-classifying and compartmentalising ice-time and coupling that with an indirect rejection of the methodology others use for accounting for these usage differences ,without actually issuing a takedown on what guys are doing in their models in regards to this (unless he has and I’ve missed it, in which case I’m all ears)

OriginalPouzar

What is Rel T (as oppossed to simple Rel)?

It seems it takes in to account linemates but how?

OriginalPouzar

Woodguy v2.0: I’ve learnedthat if you put yourself out there, you will have people who disparage you.“Haters” I guess.

It comes with the profile.

Especially in regards to Oiler fans.

Yup – no big deal.

OriginalPouzar

Ryan:
digger50,

Justin Faulk says, “hello.”

Gosh, please not, I’m not sure I’d take him for zero assets given up. He is such a tire fire in his own end and, given how badly his offence has regressed I’m not sure he wouldn’t make the team worse – he was that bad in his own zone the 4-5 times I saw him play last year.

106 and 106:
The Starting Line:

Klefbom – Larsson
Nurse – Benning
Gravel – Russell
Davidson – Bouchard

****Brandon Davidson remains unsigned*** (bring him in!)

26 year old, left shooting, Taber boy, 6’2, 210 lbs, $1.5 MM cap hit.

Yup, that’s pretty much how I see it.

This changes nothing with respect to Bouchard.

Sekera was slatted for 3LD and Gravel will bump up for that spot and some like Davidson or Enstrom will be brought in to compete with Gravel for 6/7.

At least that’s how I see it.

OriginalPouzar

Ryan:
digger50,

Justin Faulk says, “hello.”

Gosh, please not, I’m not sure I’d take him for zero assets given up. He is such a tire fire in his own end and, given how badly his offence has regressed I’m not sure he wouldn’t make the team worse – he was that bad in his own zone the 4-5 times I saw him play last year.

Wilde

honestly fellas

I’ll do a longer post about this but

If Gravel is replacement-level 3LD and Russell is replacement-level 3RD the D corps will be average-ish, providing basically just water-level for the forwards, who will most likely fail the team and they were the entire problem to start with imo.

The reason I mention this is because I think the narrative may turn into the D corps not being good enough once the season gets going, and again there won’t be any addressing the bigger long-term problem

OriginalPouzar

Richard S.S.:
In his first and second Seasons with the Oilers, Andrej Sekera had to be the Oilers’ #1 D .He did very well at that and might very well have been underpaid. His injury in the Playoffswas unfortunate and possibly unnecessary.Biased Officaiting and very sub-standard offense from 2nd Line extended each series unassailable. That’s what some people are forgetting.

The injury was in game 5 – no change in the reffing would have led to the Oilers sweeping the series.

With that said, every little thing that happens effects what happens next so any changed call could have changed the future and led to the hit on Sekera now happening.

OriginalPouzar

jzed:
Screw Ryan Getzlaf, seriously, someone cripple that miserable snot, and tell him ‘that’s for Reg, asshole.’

I’m not sure what Sekera tearing his achillies while training has to do with Getzlaf and Sekera’s prior knee injury, seriously?

Woodguy v2.0

Georgexs,

Yes, Rel and Rel T are closely correlated.

They diverge for more than a few players and often those are the players who are put in the toughest situations.

You missed an important point that I wrote:

Pointing at a Rel without describing a player’s most common usage and team mates doesn’t show or prove anything about how good or bad the player is.

If you use straight Rels without context you turn into those guys who think that heavily sheltered 3rd pairing Dmen are among the best in the NHL and coaches are stupid for not realizing it.

This used to be common ~4 years ago, but now most people are couching the results with usage.

Here’s an example:

Dallas Dmen this past year:

Player Rel GF%
Dan Hamhuis -15.08
Esa Lindell 4.28
Greg Pateryn -5.48
Jamie Oleksiak 2.9
John Klingberg 9.34
Julius Honka -3.92
Stephen Johns 2.14

It looks like Hamhuis and Pateryn should be run out of town. (DAL didn’t resign either)

What this doesn’t show us is that both of them were over 40% vs Elite Forwards, toughest usage on the team.

It also doesn’t show us that when on the ice vs the toughs they were usually with Faska’s line and not Benn’s.

It also doesn’t show us that a lot more of Klingberg’s shifts vs toughs came on On The Fly (puck already moving to Ozone, Benn often on the ice) compared to Hamhuis.

Etc, etc.

There’s a lot of context needed to flesh out these results.

So imo Klingberg is good, but his usage pumped up his results. Hamhuius is older and probably shouldn’t be taking on toughs so much, but his coach put him in one of the toughest spots in the league last year, and his results are much worst than the player imo.

Perhaps I should have said: “Posting a player’s Rel anything without context is pretty meh, but RelT is less meh as it takes into account more player and less context”

Woodguy v2.0

OriginalPouzar: Some are, some seem to have a serious issue with me (inducing following me around the internet to disparaging me on various platforms) – somewhat endearing.

I’ve learned that if you put yourself out there, you will have people who disparage you. “Haters” I guess.

It comes with the profile.

Especially in regards to Oiler fans.

jp

Gerta Rauss: I don’t believe there is a penalty-from that doc I posted a minute ago

The second formula, the training-camp equation, can be used on the final day of the off-season in preparation for the first day of the season

I’m not a lawyer, but if I read that doc correctly, the Oilers can be over the cap in the off season/training camp and become compliant once the place Sekera on LTIR on the final day of training camp

Whether they plan to add another player or not is another discussion altogether

I guess knowing if Sekera is gone for the entire season is another factor-if he’s ready to play in March they HAVE to activate him and then the cap implications become more complicated

Huh. Why then do waiver eligible guys get sent down on paper transactions every year for day 1 of the season? This is a thing, is it not? Maybe those teams are more than 10% over before the LTIR kicks in?

It doesn’t entirely add up, but thanks for the reply and link.

London Jon

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/editorinleaf.com/2018/07/10/toronto-maple-leafs-blueline-targets-brandon-davidson/amp/

Decent article about Davy.

Bring him back Peter.

I’d love to see him settle back in and thrive here.

Leon McMesstzky

OilClog,

I’m ok with Jack Hughes playing on McDavids wing in 19/20 and Nuge with Drai. You ??

OilClog

with Klef due to miss 20-30 games because of glassitis, Oilers might get 25 wins.

Third pair is going to be Kassian/Caggiula by the time their back from Europe and out of the playoff race.

Ryan

Ryan: I’d offer Markus Niemelainen, a third and sixth in 2020.

Yeah, but Woodguy doesn’t like him.

-Woodguy probably doesn’t like a lot of people.

Okay, fair point, but why bother?

– You’re burning daylight on the McDavid years and there’s no one else available.

Fair point, but don’t we have that Bouchard kid?

– He’s going to help a team win more than Bouchard next season. Even Woodguy said something about 18-year-old dmen don’t help you win unless they’re Doughty.

Hard to argue against that. Prior to when he was ‘overweight’ last season, Faulk used to look like a poor man’s Doughty to my eye test. However, hasn’t Faulk been a better golfer over the past four seasons than even Yakupov.

– Yeah I am sure that Faulk owns a few green jackets. Qualcomp? On ice save percentage? I don’t know ask Woodguy. Okay, but he only has to either play as a number 4/5 PP specialist for the next two seasons blocking Bouchard enough to develop.

Hm. I see your point.

106 and 106

The Starting Line:

Klefbom – Larsson
Nurse – Benning
Gravel – Russell
Davidson – Bouchard

****Brandon Davidson remains unsigned*** (bring him in!)

26 year old, left shooting, Taber boy, 6’2, 210 lbs, $1.5 MM cap hit.

Side

Kinger_Oil.redux:

– sure he attacked but some of you know better. It’s a shame he was a colourful character here.This is just a blog and Ricki was a little different but he is a good person with a big heart and some neat insights. Just because he was a little different I feel some of you should have been bigger.

He sure gave some insight the other night, alright.

Ryan

Ryan:
digger50,

Justin Faulk says, “hello.”

I’d offer Markus Niemelainen, a third and sixth in 2020.

hunter1909

OriginalPouzar,

‘Oh, but Oilers have enough d men already. Where exactly do you fit your guy in’

hunter1909: don’t worry. Oilers defence is made of glass. Lots of opportunities lol

Ryan

Ryan: He keeps dialing Garth’s number, but it’s been disconnected.

Then one of his staff provides him with a new number.

“Hello, Lou speaking. Is that you Pete?”

Ha. Uh oh.

Ryan

Gerta Rauss: I was thinking the same thing earlier-hopefully Chia’s been working the phones.

He keeps dialing Garth’s number, but it’s been disconnected.

Ryan

digger50,

Justin Faulk says, “hello.”

Ryan

leadfarmer:
Well Sekera’s season is pretty much done
Good start

Season or NHL career?

digger50

Scungilli Slushy: I’ll settle for if he’s being his typical self there will be players who push back, as opposed to Messier’ing him.

Act like a jerk, see what happens. I EXPECT this given what PC has done to reshape this team.

If I have to watch no push back or something similar, give me Hall and Eberle back right now.

With Todd, I see no way USB back happening.

What the heck… “No way push back” is happening

Gerta Rauss

digger50: Surgery doesn’t happen overnight. I wonder when the injury took place, if it was recent or the Oilers have already had some time to digest this and look around forboptions

I was thinking the same thing earlier-hopefully Chia’s been working the phones

digger50: Curious as to how the injury affects Sekeras take home pay. Does insurance pick it up? Is it 100% for full term?

Yes insurance-it’s 100% as far as I know

digger50

Also, can’t GM s be creative managing the cap. Does Peter really have to wait until the season starts to utilize the cap space?

see above-I don’t think he has to wait, that doc expressly states he can be over the cap in the offseason and utilize LTIR. Whether he does or not is the $64k question

Scungilli Slushy

jzed:
Screw Ryan Getzlaf, seriously, someone cripple that miserable snot, and tell him ‘that’s for Reg, asshole.’

I’ll settle for if he’s being his typical self there will be players who push back, as opposed to Messier’ing him.

Act like a jerk, see what happens. I EXPECT this given what PC has done to reshape this team.

If I have to watch no push back or something similar, give me Hall and Eberle back right now.

Gerta Rauss

jp: 2) What’s the penalty for having Sekera on the roster and being over the cap for day 1? Is it actually not allowed? Or is it a relatively small overage for next season (given Sekera would be transferred to LTIR within a day or two)? (where’s Ed Olczyk?)

I don’t believe there is a penalty-from that doc I posted a minute ago

The second formula, the training-camp equation, can be used on the final day of the off-season in preparation for the first day of the season

I’m not a lawyer, but if I read that doc correctly, the Oilers can be over the cap in the off season/training camp and become compliant once the place Sekera on LTIR on the final day of training camp

Whether they plan to add another player or not is another discussion altogether

I guess knowing if Sekera is gone for the entire season is another factor-if he’s ready to play in March they HAVE to activate him and then the cap implications become more complicated

Richard S.S.

In his first and second Seasons with the Oilers, Andrej Sekera had to be the Oilers’ #1 D . He did very well at that and might very well have been underpaid. His injury in the Playoffswas unfortunate and possibly unnecessary. Biased Officaiting and very sub-standard offense from 2nd Line extended each series unassailable. That’s what some people are forgetting.

Gerta Rauss

dannyboy:
What is the cap situation with Sekera? Can we LTIR and relieve ourselves of his cap hit?

https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq

I’d be lying if I said I understood all of the available options, but Sekera will be put on LTIR and assuming they exceed the cap, they’ll have releif available to them

When a player is placed on LTIR, their cap hit remains on the teams cap payroll and it continues to count as it always did. It also does not provide the club with additional cap-space savings that can be banked for future use while the team operates above the salary cap. Instead, LTIR provides relief if the club’s averaged club salary, or payroll, begins to exceed the upper limit

digger50

Surgery doesn’t happen overnight. I wonder when the injury took place, if it was recent or the Oilers have already had some time to digest this and look around forboptions.

Curious as to how the injury affects Sekeras take home pay. Does insurance pick it up? Is it 100% for full term?

Also, can’t GM s be creative managing the cap. Does Peter really have to wait until the season starts to utilize the cap space?

Glovjuice

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– the upside of knowing that sek isn’t playing this year is certainty

– the “risk-adjusted” realistic rej for this year was maybe borderline top-4. Sure you could hope for more but the range was wide
This – very disappointing and didn’t need to happen.

– while we won’t be able to get the “optimistic rej” ie turd-polisher 3+ D we should be able to find a 4-5 D. “Hey Brendon third times a charm”

– ricki was consistent and right about some things well before it was accepted.

– also I defended ricki often. I felt many here were just mean to him. Knowing what he’s going through medically and also his background if you read his posts over the years I feel some of you didn’t accord him the right decorum.

– sure he attacked but some of you know better. It’s a shame he was a colourful character here.This is just a blog and Ricki was a little different but he is a good person with a big heart and some neat insights. Just because he was a little different I feel some of you should have been bigger.

– be good ricki.

jp

russ99: Yes. That’s true. So I’m thinking a PTO to camp and signed after Sekera is on LTIR or a waiver claim after as well.

The cap room to sign someone now is up a bit since Chia had to account for Puljujarvi’s bonuses and now it’s less of a concern, but let’s sign Nurse before thinking about that.

1) The window for sneaking useful bubble guys through waivers is before the season starts, so a waiver claim AFTER Sekera is on LTIR is probably useless.

2) What’s the penalty for having Sekera on the roster and being over the cap for day 1? Is it actually not allowed? Or is it a relatively small overage for next season (given Sekera would be transferred to LTIR within a day or two)? (where’s Ed Olczyk?)

jp

LadiesloveSmid: Had a lot of hope he’d bounce back.

This sounds like the end for Reggie IMO

Well we’ve got the 33 and 34 yr old seasons of his contract to find out.

Damn shame about this injury though. The team isn’t losing much vs last year, but I’ve been projecting quite some Sekera recovery into my hopes for this coming year.

Gravel-Russel
Stanton/Lowe

is not an inspiring end of roster.

Georgexs

Georgexs: It takes 10 seconds to see that since 07-08, Sekera’s RelTGF% is 0.54 whereas his Rel GF% is 0.61.

It takes 2 minutes to run some correlations to get a handle on Rel is meh but Rel T “are much better”.

That’s 2 minutes and 10 seconds total. I take it you didn’t have the time.

What the hell; for the benefit of anyone else who’s actually keeping score:

via corsica; for defensemen who played at least 30 games in a season.

Correlations between 5v5 Rel GF% and Rel T GF%:

Season, Correlation

07-08, .93
08-09, .92
09-10, .94
10-11, .92
11-12, .94
12-13, .93
13-14, .91
14-15, .93
15-16, .91
16-17, .92
17-18, .92

According to WG, one of these metrics is “meh” for describing individuals and the other is “much better”. Trying to read much more into one number over the other when they’re basically proxies, I guess this is about as fancy as fancystats guys get.

Oh yeah, here’s the year to year correlation of RelT GF% for the same group:

Season, Correlation

07-08, .07
08-09, .11
09-10, .14
10-11, .06
11-12, .16
12-13, .13
13-14, .15
14-15, -.04
15-16, .13
16-17, .06

So the “much better” RelT GF% metric for this season tells us nothing about what it will be next season. Its predictive value is zero. Which means I was wrong: THIS is as fancy as fancystats guys get.

Remember, my point wasn’t that Sekera was a bad defenseman (as WG seemed to have read it). I said he was a middle of the road defenseman. A guy who can reliably handle 20+ minutes a night without costing his team. Or at least he could before the ACL injury. That’s what career Rel. numbers look like for a middle of the road defenseman. That’s actually a good career.

Glovjuice

Woodguy v2.0: We’re having fun with you OP.

Lighten up.

P
he’s so defensive all the time

Gerta Rauss

Well, Buhner was a good prospect, no question about it. But my baseball people loved Ken Phelps’ bat. They kept saying Ken Phelps, Ken Phelps

jzed

All the rookie LHD men training all suddenly got a lot more intense

jzed

Screw Ryan Getzlaf, seriously, someone cripple that miserable snot, and tell him ‘that’s for Reg, asshole.’

Jaxon

Should the Oilers be scouring the waiver wires for a RHD now?

They won’t have a lot of money until Sekera is on LTIR but do they want to wait that long to shore up the position. I still think Nurse gets 4.0 to 4.167 x 1 or 2 years. That would mean they’ll have less than $1M (if my math is anywhere close to Correctville), so AHL may be the place to go hunting and a right hander makes sense if you want to keep Russell on the left and push Gravel into the press box and Bear to Bakersfield.

Of Players who met thresholds of Top pair TOI so the coach trusted them to play against toughs, and Top 62 in Pts/60 &/or P1/60 in the AHL, here are the top RHD under 27 yrs old this fall:

Age(Sep15) Name eTOI/GP Team eP/60 Waivers eP1/60 – HT – GF%
25.671 Ryan Sproul 14.88 GR/HFD 1.07 U 0.9 – 6’4″, 205lbs – 40.85%
26.627 Justin Holl 16.51 TOR 1.58 W 0.73 – 6’3″, 205lbs – 59.77%
25.888 Adam Clendening 15.06 TUC/RFD 1.15 W 0.68 – 6’0″, 195lbs – 57.69%
22.895 Anthony DeAngelo 15.55 HFD 0.93 W 0.8 – 5’11”, 181lbs – 40.43% (3 teams in 3 years)
21.885 Rasmus Andersson 16.63 STK 1.68 X 0.9 – 6’0″, 214lbs – 58.89%
25.272 Tucker Poolman 15.06 MB 1.41 X 1.41 – 6’2″, 198lbs – 44.00%
22.367 Kyle Wood 15.52 TUC 1.18 X 0.47 – 6’7″, 236lbs – 60.00%
21.313 Brennan Menell 14.85 IA 1.07 X 0.73 – 5’11”, 183lbs – 48.89%

Sproul is a UFA and could be signed today.
Holl (TOR), Clendening (CBJ, likely won’t go back to the well on him), DeAngelo (NYR) have to go through waivers if sent down this year.
Andersson (CGY difficult to trade with), Poolman (WPG contributed in the playoffs so not likely), Wood (SJS), and Menell (MIN) are waiver exempt so would have to be traded for.

Those with a good GF% Holl, Clendening, Andersson, Wood, Menell. As some of you recall, I was pretty high on Kyle Wood last summer, too when he was still with Arizona. SJS signed him this summer. Holl and Andersson look like the best players last season from these metrics and Andersson is only 21. Nice pick for CGY at #53 in 2015. Holl is a vet of 142 NCAA games, 194 AHL games and just 2 NHL games. His scouting reports talk about his D zone stability and it seems he added some offence this season to go along with that.

Old scouting report from Hockeys Future: “Holl combines a projectable 6’2 frame with excellent skating ability. He is a strong puck-mover on the blue line with vision and passing ability. His defensive-zone play improved over the course of his college career and Holl also played forward while at Minnesota. He is not overly-physical despite his size. and relies on positioning and quick reads to make plays in his own zone.”

Klefbom / Larsson
Nurse / Benning
Russell / Bouchard for 9 games then Bear or New pickup like Sproul or Holl
or
Gravel / Russell

Georgexs

Woodguy v2.0: You really need to stop using straight Rel’s as they are full of usage splits and not just player splits.

Not every player plays the same minutes with the same team mates.

Rel T (via corsica, and will be at our site when up) are much better as they are the totals of the WOWY and not On/Off.

Some very good players look terrible via On/Off as they take on tougher mintues with less help.

Some below average players looks good via On/Off as they have easier minutes with more than adequate help.

Fancystat guys (myself included) went down the Rel hole years ago but realized they are meh for describing individuals.

Pointing at a Rel without describing a player’s most common usage and team mates doesn’t show or prove anything about how good or bad the player is.

The fact that Sekera is positive in Rel GF% given his partners and usage is a testament to his play, not an indictment.

It takes 10 seconds to see that since 07-08, Sekera’s RelTGF% is 0.54 whereas his Rel GF% is 0.61.

It takes 2 minutes to run some correlations to get a handle on Rel is meh but Rel T “are much better”.

That’s 2 minutes and 10 seconds total. I take it you didn’t have the time.

jm363561

Bad start to the day here in Manila. I always liked Sek as a low-key, just get-the-job-done kind of guy. However, his likely performance level this year was a question mark – maybe third pair, maybe second. To lose the old Sek would be devastating. Last year’s Sek not so much.

I have posted a couple of times about our lack of depth on D should injuries occur, and this is now a problem in spades – Gravel, Lowe, Stanton, Bear, Jones, Lagesson, etc are a weak / unproven / inexperienced depth group. What will Chia do? I cannot see a trade, so a Davison type free agent on a short term deal seems the only alternative to running with the Untested. I would be surprised if he now uses any freed up cash to go long tern with Nurse, but who knows.

I think Kris Russell gets a rough press on this site. He may not be Nicklas Lidstrom but he plays both left and right side to an NHL standard night in, night out. Today I am even more pleased we have him.