Riesen to Believe 2018 Volume 1

Tracking training camp rosters in some NHL cities is pretty easy. Players are signed, invites extended and in the week between Labor Day and rookie camp you have a piece of foolscap with a bunch of names on it from the NHL team. The Edmonton Oilers don’t do that kind of thing anymore so it means amateur sleuths such as myself have a mid-summer challenge! I have 61 names so far! Let’s get to it!

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

GOALTENDERS

  1. Cam Talbot, 31. Save percentage fell from .919 to .908, one of the major factors in a frustrating season. Management is showing faith in him, suspect we will see his games played total (73 and 67 the last two seasons) decrease this year. 100%.
  2. Mikko Koskinen, 30. His KHL save percentages are solid to excellent over the last six seasons, with a .937 SP during the 2017-18 campaign earning Koskinen a substantial NHL deal. He would have to fall apart in training camp to miss the roster. 90%
  3. Al Montoya, 33. The last time he saw the minors was 2010-11 and I don’t think he’ll see Bakersfield this winter—but it’s possible. A minor trade before or during training camp is likely, although he would be excellent insurance. I’d love to know what happened, the organization seemed strong on him when he arrived. 10%
  4. Shane Starrett, 24. He wasn’t impressive at all first year pro, posting a .912 save percentage in 38 games with the Wichita Thunder (ECHL) and an .895SP in three games for the Condors. I’m not sure where he lands this fall, seems to me the minor league goalies are applying for all jobs available.
  5. Dylan Wells, 20. His uneven junior career (Peterborough save percentages of .893, .871, .916, .896) now over, we’ll see how well he handles pro hockey. The Petes allowed the most shots against per game (36) in the OHL 2017-18, perhaps Wells will flourish in his new surroundings.
  6. Stuart Skinner, 19. His four seasons of junior were stronger than Wells (SP of .909, .920, .905 and .905) and I do think he’s a better prospect. I’ve long ago stopped trying to figure out goaltenders, but Skinner has a solid resume and spiked after the trade to Swift Current.
  7. Olivier Rodrigue, 18. Oilers are drafting a better class of goalie these days, or at least I believe that to be true. We’ll see about Rodrigue, he was highly rated in his draft year.

THE GENIUS OF PUCK IQ

LEFTHANDED DEFENSEMEN

  1. Oscar Klefbom, 25. Klefbom had some tough moments during a season with injuries, but as the Puck IQ numbers show there are good things about him. He’s a lock for the roster, my guess is first pairing opening night and a 40-poing season in 2018-19.  100%.
  2. Darnell Nurse, 23. Nurse performed well defensively and added some offensive output (his 5-on-5 per 60 was 0.93, No. 58 among regular NHL defensemen). He has some room to grow but appears to be delivering on the promise of his draft day. 100%.
  3. Andrej Sekera, 32. How close to full Rej will he be on opening night? That’s the question. He is a brilliant passer and filthy in overtime, plus he can defend against quality. On the other hand, he is now 32 and that’s a factor—especially coming back from injury. 100%.
  4. Kevin Gravel, 26. He has played in 70 NHL games (1-9-10) and a year ago seemed poised to be a Los Angeles Kings for years to come. He’s a shutdown type, better speed and younger than Eric Gryba. He’s 6.04, 212 but appears to use finesse defensively more than the redass. 40%
  5. Keegan Lowe, 25. The edge Lowe had on Dillon Simpson involved a more aggressive style and I think that benefits Lowe in the race for the No. 7 job against Gravel. I don’t think he’ll win the job outright, but bet Lowe plays more than two games for the Oilers in 2018-19. 10%
  6. Ryan Stanton, 29. Injuries impacted his usage (and probably derailed a recall) in 2017-18 but his rugged style is a match for the Oilers. If he shows well in training camp, he might push Gravel for the No. 7 job. 10%
  7. Caleb Jones, 21. He struggled in his rookie season with Bakersfield, but the tools (speed, skill) suggest he could arrive quickly if he can put it all together. It may seem like a stretch, and Jones’ numbers a year ago didn’t move the needle, but the talent is undeniable. 5%
  8. William Lagesson, 22. Since being drafted, Lagesson has been making strides at each stop along the way. He will play in Bakersfield this season but should he play well there, we might see him in Edmonton before season’s end. 5%
  9. Dmitri Samorukov, 19. He’s progressing nicely (Jonathan Willis has an article up at The Athletic, link above) and it will be interesting to see how long Samorukov hangs around in training camp. Solid to very good last year in the OHL, played well in an AHL cup of coffee.
  10. Jake Kulevich, 25. Big shutdown type played with the Manitoba Moose last season, I expect he’ll see action in both Wichita and Bakersfield. AHL deal. 
  11. Marc-Olivier Crevier-Morin, 22. Physical defender from the QMJHL who had a solid debut with the Wichita Thunder in 2017-18. He’s a depth player but looks like a solid pro based on one season. AHL deal
  12. Jared Wilson, 23. Not much on him, he came up through the AJHL and BCHL and then played for RPI (NCAA) where he scored more goals than you would expect for an obscure rearguard. AHL deal

RIGHTHANDED DEFENSEMEN

  1. Adam Larsson, 25. Larsson had a trying season on and off the ice, but the results against elites (above) were solid once again. He has more to give at both ends of the ice, in my opinion. The big question for me: Will he play with Klefbom or Nurse on the top pairing in 2018-19? 100%.
  2. L Kris Russell, 31. Someone mentions every season he’s a lefty, but it’s likely the veteran will once again play RH side and my guess is plenty of second pairing. I think he would be most effective on the third pair (LH side) and that’s something for the team to work on. 100%.
  3. Matt Benning, 24. He performed well against elites but didn’t play as much as the others in that situation. I’m in favor of moving him up to the second pair, but my estimates have the coach running Russell in that role for the coming year. 100%.
  4. Evan Bouchard, 18. I’ve been convinced for some time Bouchard has an excellent chance to make the big club (my model has him playing nine games). I don’t think anything that has happened since draft day has changed Edmonton’s thinking: They want to do the right thing and send him back, but they are going to give him a chance. 50%
  5. Ethan Bear, 21. Bear posted a strong first year pro, playing well in Bakersfield and adding responsibilities all along the way. He was exposed defensively during his NHL audition but also showed good offensive potential. He is a good passer, and what’s more, he makes good decisions in terms of the target he’s sending away. 20%
  6. Joel Persson, 24. He isn’t going to be at training camp but I wanted to mention Persson as a potential contributor anyway. The Oilers didn’t grab that big power-play option over the summer, and with Evan Bouchard so young, perhaps the team will change their minds and bring him over early? It’s a thought.
  7. Ryan Mantha, 22. The concern is his eye injury and only time will tell. He was quality in Bakersfield and might have gotten a call if he had stayed healthy. A bitter pill, here’s hoping he can make it back to previous levels and continue to push.
  8. Logan Day, 23. Only geeks like me noticed, but Day was a big offensive player in college and might have an impact in Bakersfield. AHL deal. 
  9. Justin Lemcke, 21. I always liked him in the OHL and suspect he’ll be a popular player in Wichita this coming season. Minor league deal. 

CENTER

  1. Connor McDavid, 21. Per 82 games in his entry-level deal, 97 scored 34-66-100. Elite player, he could post higher numbers and reach an even higher gear. A 125-point season hasn’t been seen since Jumbo Joe in 2005-06. Stand back!  100%.
  2. Leon Draisaitl, 22. Leon’s big contract negotiations were the story a year ago, his offense fell from .939 points-per-game to .897—and many fans were outraged. Considering the injury and the power play, I think he did fine. Huge season to come, can his line outscore the opposition? I think he’ll play 30 percent of his season with 97. 100%. 
  3. Ryan Strome, 25For much of the season I thought Strome was a goner, but he started to come around on a road trip in November (Grey Cup Sunday) when he found some chem with Leon Draisaitl. I think he’ll play better this year and will take on more of the chores. 100%.
  4. Kyle Brodziak, 34. Brodziak is at the point in his career where the next poor season probably takes him out of the league, but it’s been some time since he was truly poor. Edmonton can use him in multiple roles, perhaps most importantly on the penalty kill. I don’t see him emerging as a Letestu-type offensive contributor. 100%
  5. Brad Malone, 29. Malone can play center, wins faceoffs, penalty kills and it won’t hurt him to sit in the pressbox for long stretches. He looked good during his recalls last season, although there isn’t much offense. 15%.
  6. Cooper Marody, 21. Some buzz around Marody, whose final college season (40, 16-35-51) for Michigan was a quality junior season. He is one of the group on this fall’s roster who could surprise and push for a job. 5%.
  7. Josh Currie, 25. The nature of his contract tells me the club either sees him as a possible option for NHL play (this is unlikely) or it’s getting more difficult to sign AHL centers these days. He got a signing bonus and will make $160,000 in year two of the deal.
  8. Tyler Vesel, 24. His time is now, despite the fact Vesel has never played a game of pro hockey. That said, he has a nice range of skills and will probably fit well into multiple scenarios. Edmonton will need mentors in Bakersfield in the coming seasons, Vesel’s two-way play and college experience might help him in this area.
  9. Cameron Hebig, 21. He’s an interesting player, Jonathan Willis had a look at him not long ago and looked at what his future might look like based on comparables. He averaged 4.6 shots per game, suspect he’ll be used in an offensive role in Bakersfield.
  10. Colin Larkin, 24. He appears to be an offensively shy center who is best suited for a checking and penalty killing role. Unfair to judge him on 16 AHL games (0-2-2) and he can scoot, but it’s an uphill battle for him.
  11. Lane Bauer, 22. He’s in Wichita (on their roster) suspect there’s a good chance Bauer gets an invite to training camp. Minor league deal. 
  12. Ryan McLeod, 19. Fast train rookie with some real promise, this will be a chance for him to see how he shines against older players.

LEFT WINGERS

  1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 25. Nuge could go 30-30-60 and it would still be considered a disappointment for a McDavid LW. Since he arrived in 2015, 97’s LW’s have been rugged types, while RNH brings skill and great edges. It could be a beautiful relationship. 100%.
  2. Milan Lucic, 30. One of the things we should know by Halloween is how much the big man can bring. If he is scoring well at even strength, fans should assume he will come at least part of the way back. 100%.
  3. Drake Caggiula, 24. He scores 13-12-25 per 82 games, but his possession numbers are not strong. Caggiula’s speed gets him into a prominent spot often. If he is unable to post strong outscoring numbers, he could find himself moving down the depth chart. 100%.
  4. Jujhar Khaira, 24. Last year I had him at 70 percent, suggesting it would come down to offense. He scored well based on expectations, and may have done enough to find a home on the No. 3 line with Ryan Strome or No. 4 line with Kyle Brodziak. Khaira is a physical player who can play a rambunctious style, both Chiarelli and McLellan value that player. 100%.
  5. Pontus Aberg, 25. I keep thinking he’ll win a job inside the top 9F, but the Predators are a smart organization and maybe he’s a little shy of being that player in the NHL. Scores 21.7 points per 82 games, you’d guess he would be more productive just watching him. 80%.
  6. Tyler Benson, 20. The largest gap between organization and fans (imo) in regard to prospect evaluation is Benson. Many see his name, think ‘Alex DeBrincat’ and instantly assume Benson is another prospect headed for the lost highway. I think the Oilers believe it’s only a matter of time and where he slots on the depth chart. Should be fun.
  7. Joe Gambardella, 24. This is a player who could surprise. His boxcars in Bakersfield a year ago look pedestrian, but we have to take usage into account. At the very least, expect a larger role in Bakersfield.
  8. Nolan Vesey, 23. He doesn’t have a lot on his resume that stands out, the big question is how much playing time he’ll get with the Condors. Edmonton has hired a bunch of new hands, not sure how this will shake out.
  9. Ostap Safin, 19. He’s a mature prospect physically and has some power forward tendencies. I think he might make the grade based on potential and what’s left to learn in the QMJHL.
  10. Evan Polei, 22. He has slow boots but a fine shot and a nose for the net, Polei should make a living in the minors and who knows maybe he sees the NHL someday. AHL deal. 
  11. Braden Christoffer, 24. Now on a minor league deal, lack of offense was the catch in terms of getting a second NHL contract. No idea where he lands, my guess is Bakersfield. AHL deal. 
  12. Ryan Van Stralen, 24. He scored well (8 goals in 16 games) for Wichita after finishing up at Carleton University, mostly a wild card but he can score in the ECHL. AHL deal. 

RIGHT WINGERS

  1. Ty Rattie, 25. Rattie brings potential for fantastic value for Edmonton. Per 82 games in the NHL so far, he’s 15-17-32. There are examples of players who arrive this late as NHL players and flourish, I imagine he’s been running up hills all summer. 100%.
  2. Tobias Rieder, 25. Edmonton will need him for two-way prowess and penalty killing but that No. 2 right wing job is right there, too. Per 82gp, he’s 14-19-33, I’m looking forward to seeing him play as an Oiler.  100%.
  3. Jesse Puljujarvi, 20. He’s big, strong, talented. Scored 12 goals in a part-time role scored eight goals in the first 22 games of last season. My guess is he blossoms this season, scoring 16-20 goals and establishing himself as a reliable young two-way forward. 100%.
  4. Zack Kassian, 27He fell off from 2016-17 and he’s pricey for the position, but Kassian brings a rugged game and surprising skill for player-type. Edmonton needs secondary scoring and one of these days Kassian is going to score more than seven goals. He absolutely gets enough chances to score 15 a year. 100%.
  5. Kailer Yamamoto, 20. Last year I wrote “Electric skills and another goal scorer. A small winger, he will impress if given chances. If he is here late in camp, the club may give him nine games.” I think he’ll get more than 9 games this season but am less certain about his status on opening night. 50%.
  6. Mitch Callahan, 26. A productive and experienced AHL farmhand signed a year ago with Edmonton, but didn’t deliver much at all. A recovery season is in order.
  7. Patrick Russell, 25. He was one of the last forwards standing at last year’s training camp, he can penalty kill and is rugged. The boots fail him but he might get another long look.
  8. Kirill Maksimov, 19. He’s a sniper, which is rare indeed for these Oilers. I don’t think he’ll get a long look but if they give him a preseason game don’t be surprised if he makes some noise.
  9. John McFarland, 26. He’s a former second-round pick in 2010, has kicked around for years now and is coming back to North America. No expectations. AHL deal. 

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211 Responses to "Riesen to Believe 2018 Volume 1"

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  1. Wilde says:

    I stole one(1) of your words, Lowetide, then added a half-billion of my own and came up with this:

    https://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2018/08/the-best-player-available-22-going-long.html

    It’s an extension of my critique of the BPA argument that morphs into a projection of the future Oilers defence corps and how good it could be.

    (I also talk about the 2019 draft a bit, please don’t come find me)

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think you are about right on the goaltenders with Montoya having a 10% chance (subject to injury). Even if he outplays Koskinen, i think the Finish giant makes the team (unless he is truly awful).

    Do we anticipate something like this:

    – NHL: Talbot/Koskinen
    – AHL: Montoya/Skinner (even split)
    – ECHL: Wells/Starett
    – QMJHL: Rodrigue
    – Providence: Haweye

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am hopeful that Montoya isn’t traded, that he clears waivers and that he plays nice in Bakersfield.

    He would be excellent injury cover – I mean, who are we bringing up if there is an injury at the NHL level? A rookie pro or a non-real NHL prospect in Starret?

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Most Oiler fans seems to be down quite a bit on Wells but lets not forget, last year at this time, he was ahead of Skinner on the rankings. The Petes were awful this year – he saw a ton or rubber and a ton of high danger rubber. He may bounce back and re-establish himself as a “real prospect”.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Our healthy defence has a third pairing of Sekera/Russell which is actually very very good NHL depth.

    I don’t like Russell on the right side but its much less egregious on the 3rd pairing and that was our 2nd pairing in 2016/17 and they really played as a 1B that year.

    If Sekera is anywhere near 100% health, that is a fantastic third pairing.

    Sekera is an elite 2nd pairing d-man that can handle 1st pairing duties – if he is anywhere near 100% we are essentially adding that player for free.

    I would like to see Nurse’s even strength minutes cut back a bit – I believe he was 5th in the NHL last year in even strength minutes. If Sekera and Klefbom maintain health, that is a great left side.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    My darkhorse for some NHL minutes this year is Willie Lagesson and, based on last year’s performance by each, I have him ahead of Jones as far as NHL readiness (acknowledging that Jones was much better in the last third of the season last year).

    Willie is a big body that can defend but can also skate and move the puck. He’s got experience now playing against men (and logged some solid minutes in the SHL this year) and, of course, with his North American pedigree (USHL and college) shouldn’t have any issue adjusting back to the North American game.

    Of course, AHL time is very likely needed but, if injuries pile up, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s in the mix for a re-call in the 2nd half of the season.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    You’ve got Russell slotted in at 2RD and that very well may be the case and, if that is the case, then the defensive group likely isn’t good enough. We simply know that Russell isn’t good enough on the 2nd pairing and I can’t imagine he is able to play the “faster game” that Gully spoke about.

    A key to the season for me is Benning being able to establish himself as a 2RD and at least be adequate on that 2nd pairing. Bumping Russell down to 3RD is important for team success.

    No offence to Kris Russell but if he’s second pairing, it needs to be left side and that isn’t going to happen.

  8. Wilde says:

    I missed the Samorukov talk yesterday but I want to reiterate that I’ve just got a feeling about that guy, I’m high on that ’17 draft in general, but he seems uniquely strong even among them.

    This isn’t a data thing, though he’s sitting at a healthy 66% of making the NHL by Emmanuel Perry’s model, but just by video I feel like he makes the kind of reads you can’t teach, with and without the puck, which is why I’m not worried about his defense and secretly(read:unreasonably) believe he could be a top-four guy eventually.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    There is little doubt that Ethan Bear will very likely get NHL games this year but, hopefully, Benning/Russell can be healthy and play well enough on the right side to give Ethan at least a couple of months of additional AHL development time.

    He can already move the puck and shoot at the NHL level (Bouchard aside, he may already be our best puck mover) but we all saw his issues away from the puck – gaps, angles, decision making at the blue line, battles, etc.

    With the knowledge of what he needs to work on, a few months of AHL time could/should go a long ways to improving his game.

    Here is hoping they don’t need to recall him early.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    With respect to McDavid and 125 points, I don’t think that is an unreasonable though. I wouldn’t predict or expect it but its not out of the realm of possibility.

    84 even strength points last year. Giroux was second with 68.

    It was the most even strength points this century (H. Sedin with 83 in 2009 and Jagr with 79 in 2001).

    I don’t imagine the PP itself will be as poor this year or that McDavid will be middle of the pack in PP points.

    Even a mediocre bounce back on the PP spikes his points (assuming similar even strength production).

    With Brodziak and Rieder, perhaps McDavid’s SH ice goes down allowing more PP and ES minutes. We did lose Pakarinan’s PK minutes though.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m going to disagree that Brad Malone looked good during his recalls last year.

    He looked extremely pedestrian when he wasn’t taking minor penalties and putting his team shorthanded.

    He will see NHL games this year I’m sure but I’m hoping he is not the first forward call-up – the waiver wire (or a late signing) should put another body in between him and the NHL.

  12. jtblack says:

    LT. I think you got hit by a BOT.

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Re: Benning vs Elite Forwards

    Tyler tweeted this out yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/1029099147121623041

    What is refers to is “”How long as the opposition top 6 line been on the ice before you came on?””

    Benning was one of the most sheltered in the NHL in this respect, so it going to play a significant role in his results.

    Other notable Dmen sheltered in this way by their coach:

    TVR
    Hanifin
    Fleury
    Kronwall
    Butcher
    Dillon
    Jensen
    Miller (VGK)
    Chychrun
    Claesson
    Manning
    Gudas
    Pouliot
    Lovejoy
    Krug
    Burns
    Hickey
    Stone
    J.Schultz
    Schenn
    Pulock
    Pysyk
    Dunn
    Polak

    Alternatively, here were the least sheltered:

    Hedman
    Pietrangelo
    Ceci
    Daley
    Morrissey
    Pesce
    Trouba
    Hamilton
    Johnson
    McNabb
    Manson
    Ekholm
    Giordano
    Scandella
    Slavin
    Niskanen
    McAvoy
    Rielly
    Yandle
    Schmidt
    Edler
    Ekblad
    Chara
    Braun
    Hainsey
    Vlasic

  14. frjohnk says:

    Sorry about being part of the bike rack dust up yesterday LT.

  15. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    With respect to McDavid and 125 points, I don’t think that is an unreasonable though.I wouldn’t predict or expect it but its not out of the realm of possibility.

    84 even strength points last year. Giroux was second with 68.

    It was the most even strength points this century (H. Sedin with 83 in 2009 and Jagr with 79 in 2001).

    I don’t imagine the PP itself will be as poor this year or that McDavid will be middle of the pack in PP points.

    Even a mediocre bounce back on the PP spikes his points (assuming similar even strength production).

    With Brodziak and Rieder, perhaps McDavid’s SH ice goes down allowing more PP and ES minutes.We did lose Pakarinan’s PK minutes though.

    Indeed. Being 15-30 PPP behind your cohorts while leading them in TP significantly means something is likely to improve, and that being PP and PK opportunities and efficiency.

    McDavid should both have increased PP time (damn you, refs and NHL…) and be better at them.

    Simple, yet effective.

  16. dustrock says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    My darkhorse for some NHL minutes this year is Willie Lagesson and, based on last year’s performance by each, I have him ahead of Jones as far as NHL readiness (acknowledging that Jones was much better in the last third of the season last year).

    Willie is a big body that can defend but can also skate and move the puck.He’s got experience now playing against men (and logged some solid minutes in the SHL this year) and, of course, with his North American pedigree (USHL and college) shouldn’t have any issue adjusting back to the North American game.

    Of course, AHL time is very likely needed but, if injuries pile up, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s in the mix for a re-call in the 2nd half of the season.

    I’ve got a lot of time for Lagesson but the Left-Hand Log Jam doesn’t show any signs of dissipating.

    If you assume Klefbom and Nurse are going to be the top 2 LHD for the next 5 years (N.B. Assume nothing with Chiarelli), then you’ve got Sekera and even Russell as the 3 LHD option.

    How good does someone like Jones or Lagesson have to be for Chia to contemplate moving one of his d-men?

    Sekera and Russell both make a ton and getting a cheap bottom pairing option would be nice.

    Wonder if they’ll start test-driving the Sek/KR replacement this season as you indicate.

  17. Wilde says:

    That Matt Benning vs Elites number, man, I talked about it in my piece but I’d actually say it’s >50% that Benning is a capable 2RD, it’s just the concussion 16-17 and team-wide GA problems 17-18 muddying the waters.

    Lowetide:

    Al Montoya, 33. The last time he saw the minors was 2010-11 and I don’t think he’ll see Bakersfield this winter—but it’s possible. A minor trade before or during training camp is likely, although he would be excellent insurance. I’d love to know what happened, the organization seemed strong on him when he arrived. 10%

    The Oilers have a hole at 5th round 2019, it would be a nice outcome if they could poke around other team’s training camps and see if someone’s got goalie trouble.

    Lowetide:

    Joel Persson, 24. He isn’t going to be at training camp but I wanted to mention Persson as a potential contributor anyway. The Oilers didn’t grab that big power-play option over the summer, and with Evan Bouchard so young, perhaps the team will change their minds and bring him over early? It’s a thought.

    Imagine this:

    The Oilers powerplay isn’t firing, and Persson has 20+ points by Christmas.

    Does Joel enjoy himself too much dominating at home to leave, or does he talk with his family in the holidays and they tell him to take the money and run(to Edmonton, not away)?

    Lowetide:

    Cooper Marody, 21. Some buzz around Marody, whose final college season (40, 16-35-51) for Michigan was a quality junior season. He is one of the group on this fall’s roster who could surprise and push for a job. 5%.

    I think Cooper earns himself an NHL gig in more than 1 per 20 alternate universes.

    Lowetide:

    Logan Day, 23. Only geeks like me noticed, but Day was a big offensive player in college and might have an impact in Bakersfield. AHL deal.

    Abject geek elitism.

    OriginalPouzar:
    Of course, AHL time is very likely needed but, if injuries pile up, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s in the mix for a re-call in the 2nd half of the season.

    I’d say it won’t be injuries that makes it most likely, but team performance and his performance.

    The blueprint we have right now for blue auditions is this:

    Team out of the race + best performing AHL blueliner = that guy is up for rest of the season

  18. dustrock says:

    The problem I see with giving Bouchard 9 games is we have the Europe trip to start, and a pretty fantastically horrific October schedule.

    This team cannot get too far behind the competition.

    We’re suspecting 3rd in Pacific or wild card spot as a Reasonable Expectation.

    They need to go .500 in October. They don’t have time for Bouchard to figure it out. He’ll have to be extremely impressive in training camp and preseason.

  19. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Interestimg stuff. Seems that we can never just take 1 metric and come to a conclusion. The Fancy stats are like peeling back an Onion.

    Multiple layers helps us come closer to the proper conclusion

  20. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Re: Benning vs Elite Forwards

    Tyler tweeted this out yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/1029099147121623041

    What is refers to is “”How long as the opposition top 6 line been on the ice before you came on?””

    Benning was one of the most sheltered in the NHL in this respect, so it going to play a significant role in his results.

    Other notable Dmen sheltered in this way by their coach:

    TVR
    Hanifin
    Fleury
    Kronwall
    Butcher
    Dillon
    Jensen
    Miller (VGK)
    Chychrun
    Claesson
    Manning
    Gudas
    Pouliot
    Lovejoy
    Krug
    Burns
    Hickey
    Stone
    J.Schultz
    Schenn
    Pulock
    Pysyk
    Dunn
    Polak

    Alternatively, here were the least sheltered:

    Hedman
    Pietrangelo
    Ceci
    Daley
    Morrissey
    Pesce
    Trouba
    Hamilton
    Johnson
    McNabb
    Manson
    Ekholm
    Giordano
    Scandella
    Slavin
    Niskanen
    McAvoy
    Rielly
    Yandle
    Schmidt
    Edler
    Ekblad
    Chara
    Braun
    Hainsey
    Vlasic

    Interesting that Benning is one of the most sheltered while no Oiler D man is “murdered”
    Im guessing the Oilers deployed Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson and Russell more of a top 4 than having anybody in that group as top pairing.

  21. Pescador says:

    frjohnk:
    Sorry about being part of the bike rack dust up yesterday LT.

    Ahh, the morning after regrets,
    and the subsequent walk of shame.
    The whole thing was deleted before i was able to view it but I’m guessing there was a Bear involved.

  22. frjohnk says:

    Pescador: Ahh, the morning after regrets,
    and the subsequent walk of shame.
    The whole thing was deleted before i was able to view it but I’m guessing there was a Bear involved.

    I have to say the dustups with DSF a couple of years ago, were without a doubt the most explosive.

    Things these days are quite a bit tamer, but there are the occasional outbursts like yesterday.

    I have had many disagreements with WG and others over the years, not so many the last while, but we were civil and there were no outbursts.

    When posters do not respect others, guys like me will dig their heels in a bit.

  23. Jaxon says:

    Wilde:
    I missed the Samorukov talk yesterday but I want to reiterate that I’ve just got a feeling about that guy, I’m high on that’17 draft in general, but he seems uniquely strong even among them.

    This isn’t a data thing, though he’s sitting at a healthy 66% of making the NHL by Emmanuel Perry’s model, but just by video I feel like he makes the kind of reads you can’t teach, with and without the puck, which is why I’m not worried about his defense and secretly(read:unreasonably) believe he could be a top-four guy eventually.

    I think your gut can be reinforced by the fact that Edmonton signed him to an ELC so quickly. They signed him right away, so they must have some real faith in him. Maybe it was to keep in North America, but it’s still impressive to be signed on September 8th of your draft year.

  24. Bag of Pucks says:

    I don’t think we can say the leftorium issue is completely solved when Sekera is projected for third pairing and both Russell and Benning are viable 2nd pairing options because of handedness. When he’s in the groove, Rej is miles better than both of those boys.

    The good news is definitely Bouchard and Bear bubbling under on that right side. The bad news is this team is absolutely screwed if Larsson goes down with injury. Knock on wood that he won’t.

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    LT. I think you got hit by a BOT.

    OPOT

  26. Spydyr says:

    I’d love to know what happened, the organization seemed strong on him when he arrived.

    Short answer……he sucked.

  27. godot10 says:

    Wilde:

    The Oilers powerplay isn’t firing, and Persson has 20+ points by Christmas.

    Does Joel enjoy himself too much dominating at home to leave, or does he talk with his family in the holidays and they tell him to take the money and run(to Edmonton, not away)?

    Ruotsalainen Rule: Persson would have to clear waivers to come over mid-season.

    So 0.001% chance of that happening.

  28. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: Interesting that Benning is one of the most sheltered while no Oiler D man is “murdered”
    Im guessing the Oilers deployed Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson and Russell more of a top 4 than having anybody in that group as top pairing.

    Yeah, Todd has been running a “Top 4” since he got here.

    For better or for worse

  29. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    When looking at the expected roster and the list or potentials, probable and possibles for the Oilers, it seems to me from a purely “eye” perspective, that there is no reason, barring substantive injury and bad luck (read abysmal referring) that this team shouldn’t be in the playoff picture.

    There are some holes. Sure. But I’m begging to think that if the head coach can’t get this team rolling then there is a strong argument that he is no the right person for the job. I had high (ridiculously high) hopes after the manna from heaven CMD lottery that Chiarelli and McLellan would be the right people to bring this franchise out of the muck and into the light.

    I still have some (wavering) hope for Chiarelli, but seeing the at times “peculiar” coaching decisions, have to think the rope on McLellan is very nearly at its end.

    There must be some way to shape a team with this much talent and potential into a more coherent coordinated group. If this coach can’t do that, find another. If the GM won’t make that change, find another GM. And please for the love of all things rationale – if those changes have to be made let it not be any of the old guard – no more McTavish-Lowe recycling.

    It’s well past time that the Oilers started playing up to potential. I’d sorely love to see this team come out of the gate with some fire in their eyes and a desire to shed the passive loser mentality that has plagued the Oilers for years. Not talking about “grit” or “fights” just passion and a willingness to do what it takes to win!

    Here’s hoping. Hope springs eternal – right?

    Also VOR/WILDE – I read the NBA GM article – fascinating glimpse into the intricacies and complexity involved in high level sport planning! Very cool read. Still hoping to get to the second article mentioned in that thread. Thanks for all the both of you do here.

  30. Jaxon says:

    Wilde:
    I stole one(1) of your words, Lowetide, then added a half-billion of my own and came up with this:

    https://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2018/08/the-best-player-available-22-going-long.html

    It’s an extension of my critique of the BPA argument that morphs into a projection of the future Oilers defence corps and how good it could be.

    (I also talk about the 2019 draft a bit, please don’t come find me)

    Great read. Thanks. I like the idea of drafting a left D in the 2nd half of the first round and maybe another LW in the 2nd round. I think one gap in their upcoming years will be at NHL ready goalies. There is a bit of an age gap between Talbot/Koskinen and the rest of the goalie prospects. This means that possibly none of them will be near peak performance when the rest of the team is peaking. This gap can’t be filled through the draft, though. It can only be filled with UFA signings or trades for upcoming goalies who are currently in the 25 to 27 age range.

    I’ve done a slightly different cluster exercise where I clustered players in various stages of their career based on different development and peak and falloff ages at specific positions. I didn’t get too scientific about it but I generally had forwards developing and peaking earliest, then D, then goalies. Of course, elite players develop faster and last longer, but I think it is generally, somewhat, kinda, sorta accurate-ish.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W9kRR02jI_Hfze-kDH4uRPgQao3QthQKj373RpleDnI/edit?usp=sharing

    The very orange/red years leading up to 2022-23 will be the Oilers’ best chance at a Cup and should be very competitive by 2019-20. They should be able to hang on to being a contender until at least 2025-26. Of crouse, all this is contingent on maintaining some key players on their next contracts and letting some older players go.

    If I get some time I might try to source 25-27-year-old goalies who might shake loose this year or are stuck as backups and may be available at the trade deadline or next offseason. If I find time.

  31. Rocknrolla says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I am hopeful that Montoya isn’t traded, that he clears waivers and that he plays nice in Bakersfield.

    He would be excellent injury cover – I mean, who are we bringing up if there is an injury at the NHL level? A rookie pro or a non-real NHL prospect in Starret?

    Agreed…What happens if Talbot goes down for 10…Like Montoya available…

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Interestimg stuff.Seems that we can never just take 1 metric and come to a conclusion.The Fancy stats are like peeling back an Onion.

    Multiple layers helps us come closer to the proper conclusion

    Yeah, we are certainly seeing through the glass darkly.

    Player/puck tracking technology will be a huge boon once everyone figures out how to parse it and then figures out what matters and what doesn’t.

    I bet more than a few myths (including fancystats myths) get exploded.

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk:
    Sorry about being part of the bike rack dust up yesterday LT.

    You’re such a dink Padre.

  34. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Predators, Ryan Ellis agree to 8-year, $50M contract extension

    https://www.thescore.com/news/1584694

  35. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Predators, Ryan Ellis agree to 8-year, $50M contract extension

    https://www.thescore.com/news/1584694

    Ryan Ellis’ new contract does NOT include any trade protection (NTC/NMC). The Predators have one player (Pekka Rinne) who does, the fewest in the NHL.

    That’s as per Adam Vingan beat writer for the Tennessean

    Poile is amazing

  36. dustrock says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour:
    When looking at the expected roster and the list or potentials, probable and possibles for the Oilers, it seems to me from a purely “eye” perspective, that there is no reason, barring substantive injury and bad luck (read abysmal referring) that this team shouldn’t be in the playoff picture.

    There are some holes. Sure. But I’m begging to think that if the head coach can’t get this team rolling then there is a strong argument that he is no the right person for the job. I had high (ridiculously high) hopes after the manna from heaven CMD lottery that Chiarelli and McLellan would be the right people to bring this franchise out of the muck and into the light.

    I still have some (wavering) hope for Chiarelli, but seeing the at times “peculiar” coaching decisions, have to think the rope on McLellan is very nearly at its end.

    There must be some way to shape a team with this much talent and potential into a more coherent coordinated group. If this coach can’t do that, find another. If the GM won’tmake that change, find another GM. And please for the love of all thingsrationale – if those changes have to be made let it not be any of the old guard – no more McTavish-Lowe recycling.

    It’s well past time that the Oilers started playing up to potential. I’d sorely love to see this team come out of the gate with some fire in their eyes and a desire to shed the passive loser mentality that has plagued the Oilers for years. Not talking about “grit” or “fights” just passion and a willingness to do what it takes to win!

    Here’s hoping. Hope springs eternal – right?

    Also VOR/WILDE – I read the NBA GM article – fascinating glimpse into the intricacies and complexity involved in high level sport planning! Very cool read. Still hoping to get to the second article mentioned in that thread. Thanks for all the both of you do here.

    I agree with this. But I look at the wingers on this team and there’s some big question marks.

    We talk a lot about Jesse and Yamamoto but at least those are high-level/elite talents on RW.

    I wonder if LW is worse, at least long-term.

  37. John Chambers says:

    Question for the group:

    Ty Rattie is the pre-season favorite to start at RW. Who plays the most minutes starboard-side with McDavid over the final 40 games of the season? I have it handicapped at:

    1) Puljujarvi – 30%
    2) Yamamoto – 20%
    3) Rieder – 20%
    4) Rattie – 15%
    4) Aberg – 10%
    5) Marody – 5%

    In my opinion there’s not a lot of separation between those five men. JP should get the push eventually, but it’s possible for any of them to earn their way into the role and stick.

  38. Wilde says:

    godot10: Ruotsalainen

    oh

  39. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Predators, Ryan Ellis agree to 8-year, $50M contract extension

    https://www.thescore.com/news/1584694

    man…

  40. Jaxon says:

    John Chambers:
    Question for the group:

    Ty Rattie is the pre-season favorite to start at RW. Who plays the most minutes starboard-side with McDavid over the final 40 games of the season? I have it handicapped at:

    1) Puljujarvi – 30%
    2) Yamamoto – 20%
    3) Rieder – 20%
    4) Rattie – 15%
    4) Aberg – 10%
    5) Marody – 5%

    In my opinion there’s not a lot of separation between those five men. JP should get the push eventually, but it’s possible for any of them to earn their way into the role and stick.

    I think maybe Rattie and Rieder should switch percentages, just because of opportunity. There is a chance that Rieder never even plays one game on McD’s right. Whereas Rattie has a good chance of being there opening night and therefore a better chance of sticking or even being given another chance later just based on previous production rate, familiarity and higher scoring numbers at lower levels.

  41. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    dustrock: I agree with this.But I look at the wingers on this team and there’s some big question marks.

    We talk a lot about Jesse and Yamamoto but at least those are high-level/elite talents on RW.

    I wonder if LW is worse, at least long-term.

    DUSTROCK

    I absolutely agree with you on that!

  42. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ryan Ellis’ new contract does NOT include any trade protection (NTC/NMC). The Predators have one player (Pekka Rinne) who does, the fewest in the NHL.

    That’s as per Adam Vingan beat writer for the Tennessean

    Poile is amazing

    It think it speaks well of Poile in two areas, 1) his negotiation skills, and 2) the value in building a winning organization and culture, If you’re successful in doing the latter, your best players will take a haircut to stay in that good situation. You’re seeing the same thing in TBay where Stevie Y annually gets signatures on great value contracts.

  43. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – It’s awesome that Bear, who did some decent things last year when he was in the NHL, has virtually no chance of making the team this year:

    – Also met my first live LT poster today: and we have so much in common…

  44. Jaxon says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ryan Ellis’ new contract does NOT include any trade protection (NTC/NMC). The Predators have one player (Pekka Rinne) who does, the fewest in the NHL.

    That’s as per Adam Vingan beat writer for the Tennessean

    Poile is amazing

    Wow, great price and nor protection clauses. Bargain elite player. If there was ever a candidate for a huge pay raise, it was Ellis. I thought Nashville kinda owed him big time as he was seriously underpaid for a number of years.

    The past 6 years as a full-time NHLer at a cap hit of 13.34M or 2.2233M average cap hit and 2 development years at a cap hit of $0.84M. I thought Nashville owed him a better contract. But I’m not a tough negotiator like Poile I guess. Chiarelli should be paying attention. Russell at $4M and a NMC never made sense and makes even less sense now. 14 years of NHLer Ellis at an average cap hit of $4.52M.

  45. Jaxon says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Also met my first live LT poster today: and we have so much in common…

    Did you say you were in Toronto? Me too.

  46. dustrock says:

    Jaxon,

    I am not convinced at this point that Rattie starts on McDavid’s wing.

    I think he’ll be a last-try solution.

  47. Jaxon says:

    dustrock:
    Jaxon,

    I am not convinced at this point that Rattie starts on McDavid’s wing.

    I think he’ll be a last-try solution.

    I don’t think he should start there myself, but I do believe there is a chance he starts there. I do not believe Rieder gets as much of a chance to start there or get there during the season. He’s even a stretch to play on Draisaitl’s wing.

  48. deardylan says:

    This Lowetide forum goes way beyond a written forum. It is turning into friendships and game changing advice!

    Just met Kinger this morning at the Hockey Hall of Fame (Connor’s Poster was our meeting point) and Stephen Sheps at a independent coffee shop recently. Jethro also sent me some emails from Alberta to keep up my motivation and cheer me on.

    All 3 gave me some great advice for job search.

    I am 3.5 months into job search here in Toronto- getting better at getting to late interview stage and still not getting that final YES.

    Really helps to have some brothers from Lowetide who spend time and energy helping me craft the strategy and make some new connections! Can’t wait until Kinger, Sheps and me all meet in Toronto to watch Oilers game in near future! Its gonna be epic.

    Thanks again Lowetide. The quality of people with big hearts you bring together keep on giving.

    If anyone else in this forum is around Toronto say hi to me and send me an email at deardylan at hotmail dot com

    Cheers, Dylan

  49. deardylan says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – It’s awesome that Bear, who did some decent things last year when he was in the NHL, has virtually no chance of making the team this year:

    – Also met my first live LT poster today: and we have so much in common…

    +1

  50. deardylan says:

    Jaxon: Toronto

    Lets connect Jaxon!

  51. geowal says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’m going to disagree that Brad Malone looked good during his recalls last year.

    He looked extremely pedestrian when he wasn’t taking minor penalties and putting his team shorthanded.

    He will see NHL games this year I’m sure but I’m hoping he is not the first forward call-up – the waiver wire (or a late signing) should put another body in between him and the NHL.

    I had thought you were quite high on Malone last year (Ducks and runs)
    😉

  52. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Predators, Ryan Ellis agree to 8-year, $50M contract extension

    https://www.thescore.com/news/1584694

    Any details on the signing bonus vs. regular salary breakdown.

  53. godot10 says:

    Jaxon: I think maybe Rattie and Rieder should switch percentages, just because of opportunity. There is a chance that Rieder never even plays one game on McD’s right. Whereas Rattie has a good chance of being there opening night and therefore a better chance of sticking or even being given another chance later just based on previous production rate, familiarity and higher scoring numbers at lower levels.

    Rieder is a proven NHL’er who has been in the NHL since a brief 40 game stay in the AHL as a rookie pro.

    Rattie is draft + 7, and hasn’t been able to stick in the NHL, and in all those years hasn’t figured out how to be remotely competent in his own end.

    The probability of making the playoffs is probably directly proportional to the amount of ice time that Rieder gets with McDavid and Draisaitl vs. the rest of the options.

  54. Gerta Rauss says:

    godot10: Any details on the signing bonus vs. regular salary breakdown.

    It looks like $6.25 across the board according to cap friendly-no bonuses or front/back loading

    https://www.capfriendly.com/players/ryan-ellis

    *edit-the above info is qualified as “unconfirmed”

    *edit 2- I found 1 tweet saying he has a $7M signing bonus July 1 2019-still no update on capfriendly

  55. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: OPOT

    You got my humor 🙂

  56. jtblack says:

    Random thought.

    I remember hearing that in Connor McDavids career the Oilers have not scored a game tying goal when they pulled their goalie for an extra attacker? Can this be true?

  57. Lowetide says:

    Wilde:
    I stole one(1) of your words, Lowetide, then added a half-billion of my own and came up with this:

    https://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2018/08/the-best-player-available-22-going-long.html

    It’s an extension of my critique of the BPA argument that morphs into a projection of the future Oilers defence corps and how good it could be.

    (I also talk about the 2019 draft a bit, please don’t come find me)

    I love it!

  58. Lowetide says:

    Spydyr:
    I’d love to know what happened, the organization seemed strong on him when he arrived.

    Short answer……he sucked.

    True, but they’ve hung on to guys who failed before.

  59. jm363561 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’m going to disagree that Brad Malone looked good during his recalls last year. He looked extremely pedestrian when he wasn’t taking minor penalties and putting his team shorthanded.
    =====
    OP, I totally believe it man. I believed it the first time you posted. I believed it the tenth time. And I still totally believe it. Now that Aberg dude – do you think Todd should smoke the pipe of peace and give him a chance? Love ya man.

  60. Klima's_Bucket says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m going to disagree that Brad Malone looked good during his recalls last year.
    He looked extremely pedestrian when he wasn’t taking minor penalties and putting his team shorthanded.

    He took 3 minor penalties in 7 games.
    One of which he tapped the Dmen’s stick which happens hundreds of times.
    Unfortunately the Dman’s stick broke.

    Another of which,
    He batted a rolling puck over the glass for a delay of game penalty.

    The third minor was inadvertently hitting Gudas in the face while trying to lift his stick.

    I don’t think Malone is the second coming of Christ.
    And I like reading your posts.
    But perhaps let’s try to find someone else to pile on.

  61. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Random thought.

    I remember hearing that in Connor McDavids career the Oilers have not scored a game tying goal when they pulled their goalie for an extra attacker? Can this be true?

    The only site I know that has 6v5 results is offsidereview.com and they only have 16/17 & 17/18

    That said, here’s McDavid when the game is 6v5 (regular season only) over those two years:

    58.48 min
    GF 2
    GA 17

    So with the wisdom of the NHL in including 6v5 GA in their +/- stat, he’s dinged -15 over the last two years for empty netters

    McDavid was 0-7 in 16/17 and 2-10 last year.

    My guess is he went ohfer in 15/16 too so after 16/17 he was ohfer his career, but that changed last year.

  62. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: I love it!

    WILDE:

    Saskatewan Mountain. Bogfoot. Made me laugh

    I think you should add Matthew Robertson as a stud D for 2019. Can do it all and looks good doing it (effortless skater).

  63. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    PunjabiOil just posted on twitter that there is a rumour that Sekera tore his Achilles training and is out for the season.

    No confirmation yet from anyone.

    I really hope that’s not true.

  64. vinotintazo says:

    Woodguy v2.0: PunjabiOil just posted on twitter that there is a rumour that Sekera tore his Achilles training and is out for the season.

    No confirmation yet from anyone.

    I really hope that’s not true.

    if there another russell waiting for a 1yr? XD

  65. Gerta Rauss says:

    godot10: Any details on the signing bonus vs. regular salary breakdown.

    1 big bonus July 2019-details are up now

    https://www.capfriendly.com/players/ryan-ellis

  66. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    PunjabiOil just posted on twitter that there is a rumour that Sekera tore his Achilles training and is out for the season.

    No confirmation yet from anyone.

    I really hope that’s not true.

    Jesus H

  67. Bag of Pucks says:

    The last few days I’m really struck by the difference between the perception of Chiarelli’s summer by this community vs. the average joe on the street.

    For the most part, I think folks here feel Chiarelli made small prudent moves that will serve the build strategy AND the overall draft and development philosophy. Most non-Lowetide fans I talk to seem frustrated that the Oilers didn’t do nearly enough to address the needs. The dialogue I’m getting on these fronts is that players like Reider, Brodziak and Gravel are pretty much meh, and they feel this org is being dangerously complacent for one that backslid so precipitously last season.

    The one area the fans might be underrating the offseason imo is in the hiring of the new assistant coaches. I think this sends a clear message from Chiarelli to MacLellan that there are viable successors in the wings now and TMac needs to show results in a hurry. That is progress imo as I simply don’t rate MacLellan highly.

  68. HT Joe says:

    Lowetide: True, but they’ve hung on to guys who failed before.

    Are you referring to coaching staff or management? 😀

  69. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The only site I know that has 6v5 results is offsidereview.com and they only have 16/17 & 17/18

    That said, here’s McDavid when the game is 6v5 (regular season only) over those two years:

    58.48 min
    GF 2
    GA 17

    So with the wisdom of the NHL in including 6v5 GA in their +/- stat, he’s dinged -15 over the last two years for empty netters

    McDavid was 0-7 in 16/17 and 2-10 last year.

    My guess is he went ohfer in 15/16 too so after 16/17 he was ohfer his career, but that changed last year.

    Yah I just can’t remember them tying the game 6vs5. Myabe they were down by 2 and scored. Also, I don’t watch every game so probably just missed it when it did happen.

    +/- is best stat going for predicting non predictable randomness.

    He’s plus 47 combined the last 2 years So 6vs5 adjusted he is truly plus 62. But again, doesnt mean much.

  70. Munny says:

    godot10: Ruotsalainen Rule: Persson would have to clear waivers to come over mid-season.

    So 0.001% chance of that happening.

    This is completely incorrect. Oilers own Persson’s rights and as long as he is on their 90 player reserve list, which he will be, he is not subject to waivers.

  71. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    PunjabiOil just posted on twitter that there is a rumour that Sekera tore his Achilles training and is out for the season.

    No confirmation yet from anyone.

    I really hope that’s not true.

    The darkness deepens; Gord, with me abide…

  72. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    PunjabiOil just posted on twitter that there is a rumour that Sekera tore his Achilles training and is out for the season.

    No confirmation yet from anyone.

    I really hope that’s not true.

    This means Russell goes 3LHD. Hello Evan Bouchard

  73. who says:

    dustrock: I agree with this.But I look at the wingers on this team and there’s some big question marks.

    We talk a lot about Jesse and Yamamoto but at least those are high-level/elite talents on RW.

    I wonder if LW is worse, at least long-term.

    Long term right wing depth chart
    JP
    Yamamoto
    Marody
    Long term left wing depth chart
    Nuge
    Kharia
    Lucic
    Cagullia
    Benson
    Mcleod
    If Nuge stays on left wing we are probably stronger on that side. If he moves back to center there are still more bodies on the left side but probably no one with the upside of JP or Yamamoto.
    Did not include Reider, Aberg or Rattie in this because all of them could be gone next year. Assumed Strome stays at 3C.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Letestu going to FLA camp on a PTO.

    Wouldn’t have been a bad option for 14th F at $800K – chance for a value contract there.

    Door isn’t closed but unlikely now.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bouma signs in Switzerland.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Even though it was announced months ago that the procedure Klef had was very successful, has led to his shoulder being healthier than its been in years and he’s had the full off-season to train, I’ve read posts here and there (on various platforms) about his shoulder and if he’s healthy for camp.

    Here is another new story that provides the exact same info – we can’t predict further injuries but the shoulder is 100% and he’s coming in to camp 100% healthy.

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/roster-redux-oscar-klefbom/c-299758748

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m going to go with this Sekera torn achilles rumor being BS – stuff like that would be announced officially right away.

  78. LadiesloveSmid says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’m going to go with this Sekera torn achilles rumor being BS – stuff like that would be announced officially right away.

    Cody Franson step right up!

  79. Gerta Rauss says:

    Did someone say Franson…?

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock: I’ve got a lot of time for Lagesson but the Left-Hand Log Jam doesn’t show any signs of dissipating.

    If you assume Klefbom and Nurse are going to be the top 2 LHD for the next 5 years (N.B. Assume nothing with Chiarelli), then you’ve got Sekera and even Russell as the 3 LHD option.

    How good does someone like Jones or Lagesson have to be for Chia to contemplate moving one of his d-men?

    Sekera and Russell both make a ton and getting a cheap bottom pairing option would be nice.

    Wonder if they’ll start test-driving the Sek/KR replacement this season as you indicate.

    Assuming that Nurse and Klef are the top 2 pairing left D going forward is absolutely right, however, after that, I believe things open up quite a bit.

    Russell and Sekera are both on the wrong side of 30 and I believe the organization will be looking to move on from both within a couple years (one sooner than that).

    I believe we have the following going forward:

    LD Incumbents: Nurse, Klefbom
    LD prospects: Lagesson, Jones, Samorukov

    RD Incumbents: Larsson, Benning
    RD Prospects: Bouchard, Bear, Lagesson, Persson, Kemp

    At both forward and D, we will need prospects to replace veterans routinely – our current top 4D will be young enough and locked in for a while (Benning excluded) but, once our players get to UFA age, unless they are core members, they will generally need to be replaced by prospects going forward.

    At least that’s my plan for the future.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    The problem I see with giving Bouchard 9 games is we have the Europe trip to start, and a pretty fantastically horrific October schedule.

    This team cannot get too far behind the competition.

    We’re suspecting 3rd in Pacific or wild card spot as a Reasonable Expectation.

    They need to go .500 in October.They don’t have time for Bouchard to figure it out.He’ll have to be extremely impressive in training camp and preseason.

    He doesn’t have to play in all the games – he can be spot-started here and there.

    Playing a bit less for a month or so isn’t going to hurt his long term development (in particular given he’d be assigned to a place where he may be learning bad habits given how dominant he is at that level).

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon: I think your gut can be reinforced by the fact that Edmonton signed him to an ELC so quickly. They signed him right away, so they must have some real faith in him. Maybe it was to keep in North America, but it’s still impressive to be signed on September 8th of your draft year.

    I’ve thought about the potential of him being signed due to the flight risk but, when I think about it, I don’t buy it. He’s not a guy that was drafted out of the KHL, he’s already made his way to Canada to pursue his dream via junior hockey (and taking less money up front) and he’s also said all the right things:

    “I came to Canada because I want to play in the NHL. Edmonton is the best team for me. Best fans and best city.”.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: OPOT

    I apologize for proving my opinions on the comments section of a blog on the content of said blog…..

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, Todd has been running a “Top 4” since he got here.

    For better or for worse

    He may not have to do that this year – I mean, a 3rd pairing of Sekera/Russell is pretty damn good (even with Russell on his off-side – hopefully the turd polisher is back to healthy polishing).

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow, it is true:

    #Oilers d-man Andrej Sekera underwent successful surgery today to repair a torn Achilles tendon. Sekera was injured during an off-season training session & will be sidelined indefinitely.

  86. Ben says:

    fahhhhhhhhk.

    Enter 6×8 for Nurse

  87. Gerta Rauss says:

    I guess the only good news is that we’re up against the cap, so using LTIR to acquire another piece for this season is an option

    #silverlining#keepdreaminggerta

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kevin Gravel was an every day d-man with the Kings prior to his illness.

    Hopefully he’s a solid 3LW because he just got promoted to the top 6.

  89. LadiesloveSmid says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Wow, it is true:

    #Oilers d-man Andrej Sekera underwent successful surgery today to repair a torn Achilles tendon. Sekera was injured during an off-season training session & will be sidelined indefinitely.

    Had a lot of hope he’d bounce back.

    This sounds like the end for Reggie IMO

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:

    The probability of making the playoffs is probably directly proportional to the amount of ice time that Rieder gets with McDavid and Draisaitl vs. the rest of the options.

    I would say the probability of making the playoffs is probably more proportional to the amount of ice that Rieder gets on the 3rd line where he is best suited because more top 6-minded players have won sport on merit.

  91. russ99 says:

    Torn Achilles is roughly 6-8 months, then he has to get back on skates. 🙁

    That’s always the problem when you blow a knee, other tendons are overstrained to compensate. Derrick Rose is a perfect storm of this.

    The only good thing about this is we’ll have more cap space to make an addition after the season starts and we put him on LTIR.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: He took 3 minor penalties in 7 games.
    One of which he tapped the Dmen’s stick which happens hundreds of times.
    Unfortunately the Dman’s stick broke.

    Another of which,
    He batted a rolling puck over the glass for a delay of game penalty.

    The third minor was inadvertently hitting Gudas in the face while trying to lift his stick.

    I don’t think Malone is the second coming of Christ.
    And I like reading your posts.
    But perhaps let’s try to find someone else to pile on.

    Sorry, he’s a 30 year old career AHLer that did not play well in his 7 games last year and hurt the team more than he helped. When he’s brought up as an option, I will provide my opinion that I think management should ensure he’s not the first in line for an injury replacement.

  93. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Letestu going to FLA camp on a PTO.

    Wouldn’t have been a bad option for 14th F at $800K – chance for a value contract there.

    Door isn’t closed but unlikely now.

    His foot speed is no longer there! A hockey player that can no longer skate has no value whatever the price!

  94. Jordan says:

    JORDAN says:
    August 13, 2018 at 3:47 pm
    LT Wrote – I think Aberg makes the team and Kailer Yamamoto gets sent out, but suspect there is zero chance both men make the club.

    When someone important gets hurt in pre-season, and both Pointy and Yammer make the opening night roster, I’m going to drag this post out and point fingers.

    Seriously LT – why would you do something like this… The Gords live to make teams pay for just this kinds of statements.
    ————————————————————————–

    (staticky high school PA activates)

    Alan Mitchell, please report to the Karma Police Office. Alan Mitchell to the Karma Police.

    (staticky high school PA clicks off)

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The last few days I’m really struck by the difference between the perception of Chiarelli’s summer by this community vs. the average joe on the street.

    For the most part, I think folks here feel Chiarelli made small prudent moves that will serve the build strategy AND the overall draft and development philosophy. Most non-Lowetide fans I talk to seem frustrated that the Oilers didn’t do nearly enough to address the needs. The dialogue I’m getting on these fronts is that players like Reider, Brodziak and Gravel are pretty much meh, and they feel this org is being dangerously complacent for one that backslid so precipitously last season.

    The one area the fans might be underrating the offseason imo is in the hiring of the new assistant coaches. I think this sends a clear message from Chiarelli to MacLellan that there are viable successors in the wings now and TMac needs to show results in a hurry. That is progress imo as I simply don’t rate MacLellan highly.

    We are going to find out of Gravel is “meh” – from accounts he was serviceable 3rd pairing d-man in LA earning every night ice before he got sick. Hopefully those accounts are true.

    The assistant coaches have the potential to be massive additions – i’m super excited to see their impact.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Thank god Sekera’s NMC goes away prior to the scheduled expansion draft. Chances of every moving him just went way down.

  97. leadfarmer says:

    Well Sekera’s season is pretty much done
    Good start

  98. PunjabiOil says:

    We’re fucked.

  99. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ben:
    fahhhhhhhhk.

    Enter 6×8 for Nurse

    Yep, his bargaining position just got significantly stronger.

  100. Bill says:

    Sekera is out with a blown up Achilles’ tendon… ok… no panic, right?

    Solid depth is a thing? The Oil has depth, don’t they?

    Paging Justin Faulk! Cody Franson? Trent Yawney?

    What are the chances now, that Connor will be standing beside Katz’s lad when they proudly announce Jack Hughes as the 1st player taken at the 2019 Entry Draft? (If people can’t detect the sarcasm in the previous statement, please hurl me off the top of the Stantec Tower)

    This is a hiccup (albeit a HUGE, disgusting hiccup with strong hints of liver, onions and rancid cheese), I’m holding out faith that management will remedy this before puck drop over in Sweden.

  101. bendelson says:

    Let’s hope the pitchfork crowd gets along with the torch crowd…

  102. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I am hopeful that Montoya isn’t traded, that he clears waivers and that he plays nice in Bakersfield.

    He would be excellent injury cover – I mean, who are we bringing up if there is an injury at the NHL level? A rookie pro or a non-real NHL prospect in Starret?

    Oh, that’s easy – we’ll just trade a third for someone else’s failed backup.

  103. dustrock says:

    baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarf

  104. London Jon says:

    Poor Rej, he must be feeling seriously down.

    Two whole years of surgery, rest, hard physio and frustration. And at the very best he’ll come
    back next season at 90% of his pre-injury level, which will mean he’s a major drag as a 5/6 defenceman at £5.5m a year.

    Gutted for him.

  105. Georgexs says:

    PunjabiOil:
    We’re fucked.

    Because we’re not getting back the 32-year-old middle of the road D who went 9-27 as he came off of ACL surgery last year?

    Bad time for a Bear time out….

  106. Westchester Oil says:

    russ99:
    Torn Achilles is roughly 6-8 months, then he has to get back on skates.

    That’s always the problem when you blow a knee, other tendons are overstrained to compensate. Derrick Rose is a perfect storm of this.

    The only good thing about this is we’ll have more cap space to make an addition after the season starts and we put him on LTIR.

    If I’m not mistaken, Sekera’s contract would have to fit under the cap on day 1 of the season before putting him on LTIR. Which would mean that a Nurse long-term signing or addition of another significant piece would have to wait until after the season starts.

  107. TheOrangeDesk says:

    Brandon Davidson, has to be best option for coverage now right?

  108. London Jon says:

    I’d be picking up the phone to Brandon Davidson right about now as well

  109. pts2pndr says:

    Munny: The darkness deepens; Gord, with me abide…

    LTIR and frees up the money to sign Nurse long term! Could be a fortuitous!

  110. ArmchairGM says:

    deardylan:
    This Lowetide forumgoes way beyond a written forum. It is turning into friendships and game changing advice!

    Just met Kinger this morning at the Hockey Hall of Fame (Connor’s Poster was our meeting point)and Stephen Sheps at a independent coffee shop recently.Jethro also sent me some emails from Alberta to keep up my motivation and cheer me on.

    All 3 gave me some great advice for job search.

    I am 3.5 months into job search here in Toronto- getting better at getting to late interview stage and still not getting that final YES.

    Really helps to have some brothers from Lowetide who spend time and energy helping me craft the strategy and make some new connections! Can’t wait until Kinger, Sheps and me all meet in Toronto to watch Oilers game in near future!Its gonna be epic.

    Thanks again Lowetide. The quality of people with big hearts you bring together keep on giving.

    If anyone else in this forum is around Toronto say hi to me and send me an email at deardylan at hotmail dot com

    Cheers, Dylan

    What is your field of expertise, if you don’t mind me asking?

  111. dustrock says:

    London Jon:
    I’d be picking up the phone to Brandon Davidson right about now as well

    Do we prefer Davidson or do we put Russell on 3LHD and sign Franson?

  112. N64 says:

    Bill: Solid depth is a thing? The Oil has depth, don’t they?

    Good thing Pete’s got Griff on tap ready to go. Oh…

  113. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I apologize for proving my opinions on the comments section of a blog on the content of said blog…..

    We’re having fun with you OP.

    Lighten up.

  114. geowal says:

    Westchester Oil: If I’m not mistaken, Sekera’s contract would have to fit under the cap on day 1 of the season before putting him on LTIR. Which would mean that a Nurse long-term signing or addition of another significant piece would have to wait until after the season starts.

    Setup some handshake agreements to accommodate this.

  115. ArmchairGM says:

    who: Long term right wing depth chart
    JP
    Yamamoto
    Marody
    Long term left wing depth chart
    Nuge
    Kharia
    Lucic
    Cagullia
    Benson
    Mcleod
    If Nuge stays on left wing we are probably stronger on that side. If he moves back to center there are still more bodies on the left side but probably no one with the upside of JP or Yamamoto.
    Did not include Reider, Aberg or Rattie in this because all of them could be gone next year. Assumed Strome stays at 3C.

    You are including Benson and McLeod on LW but not Maksimov or Safin on RW?

  116. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    PunjabiOil:
    We’re fucked.

    My optimism just took a biiiiiiig hit.

    Pete better not compound this with a bad move.

    77-6 – heavy heavy lifting
    25-83 – medium light
    Gravel-4 – light

    I refuse to put a 19 year old on the roster.

  117. London Jon says:

    dustrock,

    I like Davidson more than most and think he’s the better overall player. We all had him locked in on the second pairing a few years ago, his fancies were good and he just seems like a first class guy.

    But Franson gives you better balance. And a PP option.

  118. London Jon says:

    London Jon,

    And you?
    dustrock,

    And you?

  119. London Jon says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’d be pleasantly surprised to see Gravel play well on a third pairing this year.

    I have a few friends with Crohn’s and it isn’t something that gets better…

  120. who says:

    ArmchairGM: You are including Benson and McLeod on LW but not Maksimov or Safin on RW?

    Good point although i believe Safin shoots left. Also forgot about Kassian

  121. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs: Because we’re not getting back the 32-year-old middle of the road D who went 9-27 as he came off of ACL surgery last year?

    Bad time for a Bear time out….

    Yes.

    That player has a long history of playing well in the top 4.

    Are you really going to ding a player for their results after an ACL re-hab?

  122. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    London Jon:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’d be pleasantly surprised to see Gravel play well on a third pairing this year.

    I have a few friends with Crohn’s and it isn’t something that gets better…

    I’m grasping at straws.

    Struddy just suggested Sbisa.

    I’m going to go cry now.

  123. geowal says:

    Don’t want to bury him, but looks like the Russell vs Sekera decision has been made for Chia

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: This means Russell goes 3LHD.Hello Evan Bouchard

    Gravel.

    Klef/Larsson
    Nurse/Benning
    Gravel/Russell

    Apparently Gravel was establishing himself as an every day d-man before his illness.

    We’ll see.

  125. geowal says:

    Got to at least get a RHD option to keep Russell on the left.

  126. Lowetide says:

    Jordan:
    JORDAN says:
    August 13, 2018 at 3:47 pm
    LT Wrote – I think Aberg makes the team and Kailer Yamamoto gets sent out, but suspect there is zero chance both men make the club.


    When someone important gets hurt in pre-season, and both Pointy and Yammer make the opening night roster, I’m going to drag this post out and point fingers.

    Seriously LT – why would you do something like this… The Gords live to make teams pay for just this kinds of statements.
    ————————————————————————–

    (staticky high school PA activates)

    Alan Mitchell, please report to the Karma Police Office.Alan Mitchell to the Karma Police.

    (staticky high school PA clicks off)

    Whistles past graveyard…

  127. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: My optimism just took a biiiiiiig hit.

    Pete better not compound this with a bad move.

    77-6 – heavy heavy lifting
    25-83 – medium light
    Gravel-4 – light

    I refuse to put a 19 year old on the roster.

    I would agree. There is no need to panic until we see where Gravel and Lagesson are at. If it had been Larsson we would be in far greater trouble!

  128. N64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m grasping at straws.

    Struddy just suggested Sbisa.

    I’m going to go cry now.

    Struddy’s looking for his skates about now

  129. russ99 says:

    Westchester Oil: If I’m not mistaken, Sekera’s contract would have to fit under the cap on day 1 of the season before putting him on LTIR. Which would mean that a Nurse long-term signing or addition of another significant piece would have to wait until after the season starts.

    Yes. That’s true. So I’m thinking a PTO to camp and signed after Sekera is on LTIR or a waiver claim after as well.

    The cap room to sign someone now is up a bit since Chia had to account for Puljujarvi’s bonuses and now it’s less of a concern, but let’s sign Nurse before thinking about that.

  130. London Jon says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I appreciate the straw grasping 😀

    I was very confident Rej was going to be back very close to his pre-injury level. Gutted and gutted for him.

    We also lose a great player to watch as he’s such a smart and smooth defenceman. And, of course, he is OT gold.

  131. London Jon says:

    Just used a smiley face and realised I very rarely see emojis here.

    Are they frowned upon?!? 😒

    I’m 40 so I should probably stop using them and trying to look down with the kids either way 🤣

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: We’re having fun with you OP.

    Lighten up.

    Some are, some seem to have a serious issue with me (inducing following me around the internet to disparaging me on various platforms) – somewhat endearing.

  133. Ben says:

    Morbid math:

    Sekera’s buyout next summer, should he be deemed fit to play, would be four years of 2.5, 2.5, 1.5, 1.5, respectively.

    Painful, but probably doable.

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: My optimism just took a biiiiiiig hit.

    Pete better not compound this with a bad move.

    77-6 – heavy heavy lifting
    25-83 – medium light
    Gravel-4 – light

    I refuse to put a 19 year old on the roster.

    This isn’t the end of the world as Sekera was slotted for 3rd paring duties and, from accounts, Gravel can handle nightly 3rd pairing duties (and there are guys like Davidson available to be the new #7).

    It hurts because, if Sekera was back to even 85-90% of his pre-injury self, we had the makings of a fantastic 3rd pairing.

  135. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: My optimism just took a biiiiiiig hit.

    Pete better not compound this with a bad move.

    77-6 – heavy heavy lifting
    25-83 – medium light
    Gravel-4 – light

    I refuse to put a 19 year old on the roster.

    Good thing Bouchard is 18 when the season starts.

  136. Zow says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Our healthy defence has a third pairing of Sekera/Russell which is actually very very good NHL depth.

    I don’t like Russell on the right side but its much less egregious on the 3rd pairing and that was our 2nd pairing in 2016/17 and they really played as a 1B that year.

    If Sekera is anywhere near 100% health, that is a fantastic third pairing.

    Sekera is an elite 2nd pairing d-man that can handle 1st pairing duties – if he is anywhere near 100% we are essentially adding that player for free.

    I would like to see Nurse’s even strength minutes cut back a bit – I believe he was 5th in the NHL last year in even strength minutes.If Sekera and Klefbom maintain health, that is a great left side.

    O.P. With the big time jink on Sekera!!!! This is really going to test the depth:(

  137. geowal says:

    OriginalPouzar: Some are, some seem to have a serious issue with me (inducing following me around the internet to disparaging me on various platforms) – somewhat endearing.

    I was going for fun, hence use of emoji (poster above take note) Though I am admittedly fascinated by the reliability and punctuality of your Malone commentary.

  138. geowal says:

    OriginalPouzar: This isn’t the end of the world as Sekera was slotted for 3rd paring duties and, from accounts, Gravel can handle nightly 3rd pairing duties (and there are guys like Davidson available to be the new #7).

    It hurts because, if Sekera was back to even 85-90% of his pre-injury self, we had the makings of a fantastic 3rd pairing.

    It hurts because our 1st pair is miles from elite, solid 2nd and 3rd pairs help balance that out.

  139. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yes.

    That player has a long history of playing well in the top 4.

    Are you reallygoing to ding a player for their results after an ACL re-hab?

    What do you mean ding? Is there a stats site with injury annotations? Was Andrej Sekera not on the ice last season? Do I have to estimate which Sekera was out there? How do I do that? Not sure how many defensemen his age returned to their prior form and effectiveness following an ACL injury. Don’t know what modifier to use. Meanwhile, Sekera made a lot of players look bad by the numbers last season.

    I say “middle of the road” about the player you say “has a long history of playing well in the top 4.” His long history of playing well results in a career Rel GF% of 0.61. We can’t both be right, can we?

    The crazy thing is McLellan now has an almost complete do-over from last season. He already went full throttle on your suggestion to have 77-6 do the heavy, heavy lifting. It was a bad idea then. Still a bad idea. Now, PC could do his typical negotiating thing and overpay Nurse. Meaning no new veteran options to provide cover. If the GM plays to type and sticks to his apparent course, that’s what we’ll see in TC.

  140. frjohnk says:

    Sekera was our best Dman in 16-17, or it was a close finish with Larsson, Klefbom.

    Last year when he came back after his knee injury, he was not even close to his 16-17 self , sometimes he didnt even look like he belonged.

    I was hoping that he would regain most of his 16-17 form, but man this is a huge blow.

    A healthy D core and it would have been our best in over a decade. Better than league average for sure. Now? Well, we need some young guys to make some huge strides on that backend.

    HOPE.

    It never ends with this team.

  141. Ribs says:

    Don’t worry guys, Denis Grebeshkov called and says he’ll come play for one million dollars. He’ll be on the first flight over.

  142. leadfarmer says:

    This was always going to be a development year. Stay the course. Don’t blow futures

  143. pts2pndr says:

    London Jon:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I appreciate the straw grasping

    I was very confident Rej was going to be back very close to his pre-injury level. Gutted and gutted for him.

    We also lose a great player to watch as he’s such a smart and smooth defenceman. And, of course, he is OT gold.

    Not to mention a great mentor for our young D.

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    This was always going to be a development year. Stay the course.Don’t blow futures

    Absolutely – there is no way to “fix this”.

    We obviously can’t trade a d-man to fix it. We don’t have the forwards to trade to fix it. I’m certainty not willing to give up any of our higher end prospects to fix it or a high pick.

  145. colieo_87 says:

    I feel bad for season ticket holders 🙁

  146. geowal says:

    Is it too early to pine for a non-bought-out Eric Gryba? Probably…

  147. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack: This means Russell goes 3LHD.Hello Evan Bouchard

    Tonya Bouchard?

  148. godot10 says:

    Maybe they bring Persson in for training camp now.

  149. Ben says:

    Odds that PC blows up our 2019 first rounder in a bid to save his job?

  150. Bling says:

    You got to feel for Sekera. That is two catastrophic injuries in the span of less than 18 months. He must be feeling terrible. He was probably on the cusp of being 100% with respect to his knee, and now this. Just brutal.

    I’m still fairly optimistic that the D-corps will be leaps and bounds better than last season, though. Klef and, to a lesser extent, Larsson, were both banged up as well. I think we’ll see a good season from Matt Benning, who has had good underlying numbers for two seasons in a row. Russell is just fine on that third pairing.

    Hopefully Chia doesn’t panic and trade for someone like Justin Faulk.

  151. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Hockey is a team game. The teams that play like teams do well. We’ve seen Pittsburgh overcome things, Vegas play far better than expected with their roster.

    Sekera’s injury is terrible news mostly for him, I think he’s very good when healthy. But this season doesn’t hang in the balance of whether he plays or not as good as he is.

    Time to step up. The opportunity on this team is the best there is, generational, these times are HOF career making times.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben:
    Odds that PC blows up our 2019 first rounder in a bid to save his job?

    Close to zero.

  153. jtblack says:

    Now our best defenseman from the 2016 season will be a 32 yr old coming off of ACL surgery, rehab, disaster season Followed by
    Achilles surgery, rehab ………… He ain’t getting any younger

    DAMMIT!!

  154. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m grasping at straws.

    Struddy just suggested Sbisa.

    I’m going to go cry now.

    Sbisa looked good in the playoffs. The main problem was when he was on ice Vegas got scored on or took a penalty.

    He makes Kris Russell’s zone coverage look smooth and calm.

    #NoSbisa

  155. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – the upside of knowing that sek isn’t playing this year is certainty

    – the “risk-adjusted” realistic rej for this year was maybe borderline top-4. Sure you could hope for more but the range was wide

    – while we won’t be able to get the “optimistic rej” ie turd-polisher 3+ D we should be able to find a 4-5 D. “Hey Brendon third times a charm”

    – ricki was consistent and right about some things well before it was accepted.

    – also I defended ricki often. I felt many here were just mean to him. Knowing what he’s going through medically and also his background if you read his posts over the years I feel some of you didn’t accord him the right decorum.

    – sure he attacked but some of you know better. It’s a shame he was a colourful character here. This is just a blog and Ricki was a little different but he is a good person with a big heart and some neat insights. Just because he was a little different I feel some of you should have been bigger.

    – be good ricki.

  156. dannyboy says:

    What is the cap situation with Sekera? Can we LTIR and relieve ourselves of his cap hit?

  157. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs: What do you mean ding? Is there a stats site with injury annotations? Was Andrej Sekera not on the ice last season? Do I have to estimate which Sekera was out there? How do I do that? Not sure how many defensemen his age returned to their prior form and effectiveness following an ACL injury. Don’t know what modifier to use. Meanwhile, Sekera made a lot of players look bad by the numbers last season.

    I say “middle of the road” about the player you say “has a long history of playing well in the top 4.” His long history of playing well results in a career Rel GF% of 0.61. We can’t both be right, can we?

    The crazy thing is McLellan now has an almost complete do-over from last season. He already went full throttle on your suggestion to have 77-6 do the heavy, heavy lifting. It was a bad idea then. Still a bad idea. Now, PC could do his typical negotiating thing and overpay Nurse. Meaning no new veteran options to provide cover. If the GM plays to type and sticks to his apparent course, that’s what we’ll see in TC.

    You really need to stop using straight Rel’s as they are full of usage splits and not just player splits.

    Not every player plays the same minutes with the same team mates.

    Rel T (via corsica, and will be at our site when up) are much better as they are the totals of the WOWY and not On/Off.

    Some very good players look terrible via On/Off as they take on tougher mintues with less help.

    Some below average players looks good via On/Off as they have easier minutes with more than adequate help.

    Fancystat guys (myself included) went down the Rel hole years ago but realized they are meh for describing individuals.

    Pointing at a Rel without describing a player’s most common usage and team mates doesn’t show or prove anything about how good or bad the player is.

    The fact that Sekera is positive in Rel GF% given his partners and usage is a testament to his play, not an indictment.

  158. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LT,

    I fully expect this to be your post title tomorrow:

    “Jerry, it’s Frank Costanza! Mr. Steinbrenner’s here, George is dead, call me back!”

    “What the hell did you trade Jay Buhner for? 30 home runs last year, over a 100 RBIs, a rocket for an arm…..YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT THE HELL YOU’RE DOING!”

  159. OriginalPouzar says:

    I had Willie Lagesson as my dark horse to get some games later in the season – maybe he gets some games earlier.

    He played 20 minutes/game, and well, in the SHL.

    Seems unlikely he’s ready but I’m very interested to see him at camp.

  160. flyfish1168 says:

    Brandon Davidson with a third tour with the Oilers here we come

  161. stephen sheps says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: also I defended ricki often. I felt many here were just mean to him. Knowing what he’s going through medically and also his background if you read his posts over the years I feel some of you didn’t accord him the right decorum.

    You and me both, friend.

    I wasn’t around yesterday (and really haven’t been much lately) but whether you agreed with his metrics or not (and some ideas were certainly better than others – just like everyone else), he’s a unique presence here and has been for many many years. Be good to each other, y’all.

    Also this Rej thing sucks. Feel badly for the team, feel horrible for the person.

    Ok, back to interview transcription, because this is my life now.

  162. jm363561 says:

    Bad start to the day here in Manila. I always liked Sek as a low-key, just get-the-job-done kind of guy. However, his likely performance level this year was a question mark – maybe third pair, maybe second. To lose the old Sek would be devastating. Last year’s Sek not so much.

    I have posted a couple of times about our lack of depth on D should injuries occur, and this is now a problem in spades – Gravel, Lowe, Stanton, Bear, Jones, Lagesson, etc are a weak / unproven / inexperienced depth group. What will Chia do? I cannot see a trade, so a Davison type free agent on a short term deal seems the only alternative to running with the Untested. I would be surprised if he now uses any freed up cash to go long tern with Nurse, but who knows.

    I think Kris Russell gets a rough press on this site. He may not be Nicklas Lidstrom but he plays both left and right side to an NHL standard night in, night out. Today I am even more pleased we have him.

  163. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You really need to stop using straight Rel’s as they are full of usage splits and not just player splits.

    Not every player plays the same minutes with the same team mates.

    Rel T (via corsica, and will be at our site when up) are much better as they are the totals of the WOWY and not On/Off.

    Some very good players look terrible via On/Off as they take on tougher mintues with less help.

    Some below average players looks good via On/Off as they have easier minutes with more than adequate help.

    Fancystat guys (myself included) went down the Rel hole years ago but realized they are meh for describing individuals.

    Pointing at a Rel without describing a player’s most common usage and team mates doesn’t show or prove anything about how good or bad the player is.

    The fact that Sekera is positive in Rel GF% given his partners and usage is a testament to his play, not an indictment.

    It takes 10 seconds to see that since 07-08, Sekera’s RelTGF% is 0.54 whereas his Rel GF% is 0.61.

    It takes 2 minutes to run some correlations to get a handle on Rel is meh but Rel T “are much better”.

    That’s 2 minutes and 10 seconds total. I take it you didn’t have the time.

  164. Jaxon says:

    Should the Oilers be scouring the waiver wires for a RHD now?

    They won’t have a lot of money until Sekera is on LTIR but do they want to wait that long to shore up the position. I still think Nurse gets 4.0 to 4.167 x 1 or 2 years. That would mean they’ll have less than $1M (if my math is anywhere close to Correctville), so AHL may be the place to go hunting and a right hander makes sense if you want to keep Russell on the left and push Gravel into the press box and Bear to Bakersfield.

    Of Players who met thresholds of Top pair TOI so the coach trusted them to play against toughs, and Top 62 in Pts/60 &/or P1/60 in the AHL, here are the top RHD under 27 yrs old this fall:

    Age(Sep15) Name eTOI/GP Team eP/60 Waivers eP1/60 – HT – GF%
    25.671 Ryan Sproul 14.88 GR/HFD 1.07 U 0.9 – 6’4″, 205lbs – 40.85%
    26.627 Justin Holl 16.51 TOR 1.58 W 0.73 – 6’3″, 205lbs – 59.77%
    25.888 Adam Clendening 15.06 TUC/RFD 1.15 W 0.68 – 6’0″, 195lbs – 57.69%
    22.895 Anthony DeAngelo 15.55 HFD 0.93 W 0.8 – 5’11”, 181lbs – 40.43% (3 teams in 3 years)
    21.885 Rasmus Andersson 16.63 STK 1.68 X 0.9 – 6’0″, 214lbs – 58.89%
    25.272 Tucker Poolman 15.06 MB 1.41 X 1.41 – 6’2″, 198lbs – 44.00%
    22.367 Kyle Wood 15.52 TUC 1.18 X 0.47 – 6’7″, 236lbs – 60.00%
    21.313 Brennan Menell 14.85 IA 1.07 X 0.73 – 5’11”, 183lbs – 48.89%

    Sproul is a UFA and could be signed today.
    Holl (TOR), Clendening (CBJ, likely won’t go back to the well on him), DeAngelo (NYR) have to go through waivers if sent down this year.
    Andersson (CGY difficult to trade with), Poolman (WPG contributed in the playoffs so not likely), Wood (SJS), and Menell (MIN) are waiver exempt so would have to be traded for.

    Those with a good GF% Holl, Clendening, Andersson, Wood, Menell. As some of you recall, I was pretty high on Kyle Wood last summer, too when he was still with Arizona. SJS signed him this summer. Holl and Andersson look like the best players last season from these metrics and Andersson is only 21. Nice pick for CGY at #53 in 2015. Holl is a vet of 142 NCAA games, 194 AHL games and just 2 NHL games. His scouting reports talk about his D zone stability and it seems he added some offence this season to go along with that.

    Old scouting report from Hockeys Future: “Holl combines a projectable 6’2 frame with excellent skating ability. He is a strong puck-mover on the blue line with vision and passing ability. His defensive-zone play improved over the course of his college career and Holl also played forward while at Minnesota. He is not overly-physical despite his size. and relies on positioning and quick reads to make plays in his own zone.”

    Klefbom / Larsson
    Nurse / Benning
    Russell / Bouchard for 9 games then Bear or New pickup like Sproul or Holl
    or
    Gravel / Russell

  165. jzed says:

    Screw Ryan Getzlaf, seriously, someone cripple that miserable snot, and tell him ‘that’s for Reg, asshole.’

  166. jzed says:

    All the rookie LHD men training all suddenly got a lot more intense

  167. Gerta Rauss says:

    Well, Buhner was a good prospect, no question about it. But my baseball people loved Ken Phelps’ bat. They kept saying Ken Phelps, Ken Phelps

  168. Glovjuice says:

    Woodguy v2.0: We’re having fun with you OP.

    Lighten up.

    P
    he’s so defensive all the time

  169. Georgexs says:

    Georgexs: It takes 10 seconds to see that since 07-08, Sekera’s RelTGF% is 0.54 whereas his Rel GF% is 0.61.

    It takes 2 minutes to run some correlations to get a handle on Rel is meh but Rel T “are much better”.

    That’s 2 minutes and 10 seconds total. I take it you didn’t have the time.

    What the hell; for the benefit of anyone else who’s actually keeping score:

    via corsica; for defensemen who played at least 30 games in a season.

    Correlations between 5v5 Rel GF% and Rel T GF%:

    Season, Correlation

    07-08, .93
    08-09, .92
    09-10, .94
    10-11, .92
    11-12, .94
    12-13, .93
    13-14, .91
    14-15, .93
    15-16, .91
    16-17, .92
    17-18, .92

    According to WG, one of these metrics is “meh” for describing individuals and the other is “much better”. Trying to read much more into one number over the other when they’re basically proxies, I guess this is about as fancy as fancystats guys get.

    Oh yeah, here’s the year to year correlation of RelT GF% for the same group:

    Season, Correlation

    07-08, .07
    08-09, .11
    09-10, .14
    10-11, .06
    11-12, .16
    12-13, .13
    13-14, .15
    14-15, -.04
    15-16, .13
    16-17, .06

    So the “much better” RelT GF% metric for this season tells us nothing about what it will be next season. Its predictive value is zero. Which means I was wrong: THIS is as fancy as fancystats guys get.

    Remember, my point wasn’t that Sekera was a bad defenseman (as WG seemed to have read it). I said he was a middle of the road defenseman. A guy who can reliably handle 20+ minutes a night without costing his team. Or at least he could before the ACL injury. That’s what career Rel. numbers look like for a middle of the road defenseman. That’s actually a good career.

  170. jp says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Had a lot of hope he’d bounce back.

    This sounds like the end for Reggie IMO

    Well we’ve got the 33 and 34 yr old seasons of his contract to find out.

    Damn shame about this injury though. The team isn’t losing much vs last year, but I’ve been projecting quite some Sekera recovery into my hopes for this coming year.

    Gravel-Russel
    Stanton/Lowe

    is not an inspiring end of roster.

  171. jp says:

    russ99: Yes. That’s true. So I’m thinking a PTO to camp and signed after Sekera is on LTIR or a waiver claim after as well.

    The cap room to sign someone now is up a bit since Chia had to account for Puljujarvi’s bonuses and now it’s less of a concern, but let’s sign Nurse before thinking about that.

    1) The window for sneaking useful bubble guys through waivers is before the season starts, so a waiver claim AFTER Sekera is on LTIR is probably useless.

    2) What’s the penalty for having Sekera on the roster and being over the cap for day 1? Is it actually not allowed? Or is it a relatively small overage for next season (given Sekera would be transferred to LTIR within a day or two)? (where’s Ed Olczyk?)

  172. Glovjuice says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – the upside of knowing that sek isn’t playing this year is certainty

    – the “risk-adjusted” realistic rej for this year was maybe borderline top-4. Sure you could hope for more but the range was wide
    This – very disappointing and didn’t need to happen.

    – while we won’t be able to get the “optimistic rej” ie turd-polisher 3+ D we should be able to find a 4-5 D. “Hey Brendon third times a charm”

    – ricki was consistent and right about some things well before it was accepted.

    – also I defended ricki often. I felt many here were just mean to him. Knowing what he’s going through medically and also his background if you read his posts over the years I feel some of you didn’t accord him the right decorum.

    – sure he attacked but some of you know better. It’s a shame he was a colourful character here.This is just a blog and Ricki was a little different but he is a good person with a big heart and some neat insights. Just because he was a little different I feel some of you should have been bigger.

    – be good ricki.

  173. digger50 says:

    Surgery doesn’t happen overnight. I wonder when the injury took place, if it was recent or the Oilers have already had some time to digest this and look around forboptions.

    Curious as to how the injury affects Sekeras take home pay. Does insurance pick it up? Is it 100% for full term?

    Also, can’t GM s be creative managing the cap. Does Peter really have to wait until the season starts to utilize the cap space?

  174. Gerta Rauss says:

    dannyboy:
    What is the cap situation with Sekera? Can we LTIR and relieve ourselves of his cap hit?

    https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq

    I’d be lying if I said I understood all of the available options, but Sekera will be put on LTIR and assuming they exceed the cap, they’ll have releif available to them

    When a player is placed on LTIR, their cap hit remains on the teams cap payroll and it continues to count as it always did. It also does not provide the club with additional cap-space savings that can be banked for future use while the team operates above the salary cap. Instead, LTIR provides relief if the club’s averaged club salary, or payroll, begins to exceed the upper limit

  175. Richard S.S. says:

    In his first and second Seasons with the Oilers, Andrej Sekera had to be the Oilers’ #1 D . He did very well at that and might very well have been underpaid. His injury in the Playoffswas unfortunate and possibly unnecessary. Biased Officaiting and very sub-standard offense from 2nd Line extended each series unassailable. That’s what some people are forgetting.

  176. Gerta Rauss says:

    jp: 2) What’s the penalty for having Sekera on the roster and being over the cap for day 1? Is it actually not allowed? Or is it a relatively small overage for next season (given Sekera would be transferred to LTIR within a day or two)? (where’s Ed Olczyk?)

    I don’t believe there is a penalty-from that doc I posted a minute ago

    The second formula, the training-camp equation, can be used on the final day of the off-season in preparation for the first day of the season

    I’m not a lawyer, but if I read that doc correctly, the Oilers can be over the cap in the off season/training camp and become compliant once the place Sekera on LTIR on the final day of training camp

    Whether they plan to add another player or not is another discussion altogether

    I guess knowing if Sekera is gone for the entire season is another factor-if he’s ready to play in March they HAVE to activate him and then the cap implications become more complicated

  177. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jzed:
    Screw Ryan Getzlaf, seriously, someone cripple that miserable snot, and tell him ‘that’s for Reg, asshole.’

    I’ll settle for if he’s being his typical self there will be players who push back, as opposed to Messier’ing him.

    Act like a jerk, see what happens. I EXPECT this given what PC has done to reshape this team.

    If I have to watch no push back or something similar, give me Hall and Eberle back right now.

  178. Gerta Rauss says:

    digger50: Surgery doesn’t happen overnight. I wonder when the injury took place, if it was recent or the Oilers have already had some time to digest this and look around forboptions

    I was thinking the same thing earlier-hopefully Chia’s been working the phones

    digger50: Curious as to how the injury affects Sekeras take home pay. Does insurance pick it up? Is it 100% for full term?

    Yes insurance-it’s 100% as far as I know

    digger50

    Also, can’t GM s be creative managing the cap. Does Peter really have to wait until the season starts to utilize the cap space?

    see above-I don’t think he has to wait, that doc expressly states he can be over the cap in the offseason and utilize LTIR. Whether he does or not is the $64k question

  179. digger50 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’ll settle for if he’s being his typical self there will be players who push back, as opposed to Messier’ing him.

    Act like a jerk, see what happens. I EXPECT this given what PC has done to reshape this team.

    If I have to watch no push back or something similar, give me Hall and Eberle back right now.

    With Todd, I see no way USB back happening.

    What the heck… “No way push back” is happening

  180. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    Well Sekera’s season is pretty much done
    Good start

    Season or NHL career?

  181. Ryan says:

    digger50,

    Justin Faulk says, “hello.”

  182. Ryan says:

    Gerta Rauss: I was thinking the same thing earlier-hopefully Chia’s been working the phones.

    He keeps dialing Garth’s number, but it’s been disconnected.

  183. Ryan says:

    Ryan: He keeps dialing Garth’s number, but it’s been disconnected.

    Then one of his staff provides him with a new number.

    “Hello, Lou speaking. Is that you Pete?”

    Ha. Uh oh.

  184. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    ‘Oh, but Oilers have enough d men already. Where exactly do you fit your guy in’

    hunter1909: don’t worry. Oilers defence is made of glass. Lots of opportunities lol

  185. Ryan says:

    Ryan:
    digger50,

    Justin Faulk says, “hello.”

    I’d offer Markus Niemelainen, a third and sixth in 2020.

  186. Side says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – sure he attacked but some of you know better. It’s a shame he was a colourful character here.This is just a blog and Ricki was a little different but he is a good person with a big heart and some neat insights. Just because he was a little different I feel some of you should have been bigger.

    He sure gave some insight the other night, alright.

  187. 106 and 106 says:

    The Starting Line:

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Nurse – Benning
    Gravel – Russell
    Davidson – Bouchard

    ****Brandon Davidson remains unsigned*** (bring him in!)

    26 year old, left shooting, Taber boy, 6’2, 210 lbs, $1.5 MM cap hit.

  188. Ryan says:

    Ryan: I’d offer Markus Niemelainen, a third and sixth in 2020.

    Yeah, but Woodguy doesn’t like him.

    -Woodguy probably doesn’t like a lot of people.

    Okay, fair point, but why bother?

    – You’re burning daylight on the McDavid years and there’s no one else available.

    Fair point, but don’t we have that Bouchard kid?

    – He’s going to help a team win more than Bouchard next season. Even Woodguy said something about 18-year-old dmen don’t help you win unless they’re Doughty.

    Hard to argue against that. Prior to when he was ‘overweight’ last season, Faulk used to look like a poor man’s Doughty to my eye test. However, hasn’t Faulk been a better golfer over the past four seasons than even Yakupov.

    – Yeah I am sure that Faulk owns a few green jackets. Qualcomp? On ice save percentage? I don’t know ask Woodguy. Okay, but he only has to either play as a number 4/5 PP specialist for the next two seasons blocking Bouchard enough to develop.

    Hm. I see your point.

  189. OilClog says:

    with Klef due to miss 20-30 games because of glassitis, Oilers might get 25 wins.

    Third pair is going to be Kassian/Caggiula by the time their back from Europe and out of the playoff race.

  190. OilSlickster says:

    OilClog,

    I’m ok with Jack Hughes playing on McDavids wing in 19/20 and Nuge with Drai. You ??

  191. London Jon says:

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/editorinleaf.com/2018/07/10/toronto-maple-leafs-blueline-targets-brandon-davidson/amp/

    Decent article about Davy.

    Bring him back Peter.

    I’d love to see him settle back in and thrive here.

  192. jp says:

    Gerta Rauss: I don’t believe there is a penalty-from that doc I posted a minute ago

    The second formula, the training-camp equation, can be used on the final day of the off-season in preparation for the first day of the season

    I’m not a lawyer, but if I read that doc correctly, the Oilers can be over the cap in the off season/training camp and become compliant once the place Sekera on LTIR on the final day of training camp

    Whether they plan to add another player or not is another discussion altogether

    I guess knowing if Sekera is gone for the entire season is another factor-if he’s ready to play in March they HAVE to activate him and then the cap implications become more complicated

    Huh. Why then do waiver eligible guys get sent down on paper transactions every year for day 1 of the season? This is a thing, is it not? Maybe those teams are more than 10% over before the LTIR kicks in?

    It doesn’t entirely add up, but thanks for the reply and link.

  193. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Some are, some seem to have a serious issue with me (inducing following me around the internet to disparaging me on various platforms) – somewhat endearing.

    I’ve learned that if you put yourself out there, you will have people who disparage you. “Haters” I guess.

    It comes with the profile.

    Especially in regards to Oiler fans.

  194. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    Yes, Rel and Rel T are closely correlated.

    They diverge for more than a few players and often those are the players who are put in the toughest situations.

    You missed an important point that I wrote:

    Pointing at a Rel without describing a player’s most common usage and team mates doesn’t show or prove anything about how good or bad the player is.

    If you use straight Rels without context you turn into those guys who think that heavily sheltered 3rd pairing Dmen are among the best in the NHL and coaches are stupid for not realizing it.

    This used to be common ~4 years ago, but now most people are couching the results with usage.

    Here’s an example:

    Dallas Dmen this past year:

    Player Rel GF%
    Dan Hamhuis -15.08
    Esa Lindell 4.28
    Greg Pateryn -5.48
    Jamie Oleksiak 2.9
    John Klingberg 9.34
    Julius Honka -3.92
    Stephen Johns 2.14

    It looks like Hamhuis and Pateryn should be run out of town. (DAL didn’t resign either)

    What this doesn’t show us is that both of them were over 40% vs Elite Forwards, toughest usage on the team.

    It also doesn’t show us that when on the ice vs the toughs they were usually with Faska’s line and not Benn’s.

    It also doesn’t show us that a lot more of Klingberg’s shifts vs toughs came on On The Fly (puck already moving to Ozone, Benn often on the ice) compared to Hamhuis.

    Etc, etc.

    There’s a lot of context needed to flesh out these results.

    So imo Klingberg is good, but his usage pumped up his results. Hamhuius is older and probably shouldn’t be taking on toughs so much, but his coach put him in one of the toughest spots in the league last year, and his results are much worst than the player imo.

    Perhaps I should have said: “Posting a player’s Rel anything without context is pretty meh, but RelT is less meh as it takes into account more player and less context”

  195. OriginalPouzar says:

    jzed:
    Screw Ryan Getzlaf, seriously, someone cripple that miserable snot, and tell him ‘that’s for Reg, asshole.’

    I’m not sure what Sekera tearing his achillies while training has to do with Getzlaf and Sekera’s prior knee injury, seriously?

  196. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    In his first and second Seasons with the Oilers, Andrej Sekera had to be the Oilers’ #1 D .He did very well at that and might very well have been underpaid. His injury in the Playoffswas unfortunate and possibly unnecessary.Biased Officaiting and very sub-standard offense from 2nd Line extended each series unassailable. That’s what some people are forgetting.

    The injury was in game 5 – no change in the reffing would have led to the Oilers sweeping the series.

    With that said, every little thing that happens effects what happens next so any changed call could have changed the future and led to the hit on Sekera now happening.

  197. Wilde says:

    honestly fellas

    I’ll do a longer post about this but

    If Gravel is replacement-level 3LD and Russell is replacement-level 3RD the D corps will be average-ish, providing basically just water-level for the forwards, who will most likely fail the team and they were the entire problem to start with imo.

    The reason I mention this is because I think the narrative may turn into the D corps not being good enough once the season gets going, and again there won’t be any addressing the bigger long-term problem

  198. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan:
    digger50,

    Justin Faulk says, “hello.”

    Gosh, please not, I’m not sure I’d take him for zero assets given up. He is such a tire fire in his own end and, given how badly his offence has regressed I’m not sure he wouldn’t make the team worse – he was that bad in his own zone the 4-5 times I saw him play last year.

  199. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan:
    digger50,

    Justin Faulk says, “hello.”

    Gosh, please not, I’m not sure I’d take him for zero assets given up. He is such a tire fire in his own end and, given how badly his offence has regressed I’m not sure he wouldn’t make the team worse – he was that bad in his own zone the 4-5 times I saw him play last year.

    106 and 106:
    The Starting Line:

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Nurse – Benning
    Gravel – Russell
    Davidson – Bouchard

    ****Brandon Davidson remains unsigned*** (bring him in!)

    26 year old, left shooting, Taber boy, 6’2, 210 lbs, $1.5 MM cap hit.

    Yup, that’s pretty much how I see it.

    This changes nothing with respect to Bouchard.

    Sekera was slatted for 3LD and Gravel will bump up for that spot and some like Davidson or Enstrom will be brought in to compete with Gravel for 6/7.

    At least that’s how I see it.

  200. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’ve learnedthat if you put yourself out there, you will have people who disparage you.“Haters” I guess.

    It comes with the profile.

    Especially in regards to Oiler fans.

    Yup – no big deal.

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