Moon over Marincin

You can’t get past black and white and there’s no grey here today. Andrej Sekera was coming off a major injury and is well past 30, but he was quality by any measure and most certainly a big part of the Edmonton Oilers. The free-agent cupboard bare, the other 30 rosters set or damned near, and internal options are shy. This is a tough spot, no way to sugar coat it.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

SEKERA

I said on the day he was signed that adding Sekera was a good signing:

  • MacT embraced the numbers early and if you applied even simple analysis to the available free agents Sekera came up damn good from this year’s crop. Maybe Peter Chiarelli came in and changed the direction in free agency, but my guess is the math people where screaming at the top of their lungs about acquiring him. He’s good, a perfect fit based on need and availability. Source

“Math people” was my code for Dellow, I’ve never confirmed if he had any input in that signing but the timelines rhyme. Folks, it was a good hire (Sekera was 29), you can’t hammer an organization for an ACL injury followed by an achilles shooter. At this point, Rej can no longer be counted on and we can probably talk about how to spend his LTIR money (not that there’s anything to spend it on).

REPLACING SEKERA

Good luck. You can run your defense like this:

  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Darnell Nurse—Matt Benning
  • Kris Russell—Evan Bouchard or Kevin Gravel—Kris Russell

The third pairing is going to get caved. Ethan Bear won’t help either, not enough to count on this season, and Brandon Davidson (who I like a lot) was good in possession but got caved in goal differential 5-on-5. Cody Franson was good in possession and goal differential in 323 5-on-5 minutes with Chicago a year ago. Here’s Puck IQ’s run against elite defensemen, this team has four men (actually three and Benning, who is coming along):

ANYONE ELSE?

Radko Gudas. He posted solid if unspectacular numbers and maybe ran without luck a little this past season. Can’t afford him? Damn Sam anyway. Slater Koekkoek? I suspect the Lightning will keep everyone through the season and look for an upgrade at the deadline.

I think Martin Marincin would be a worthy pickup via waivers, suspect I’m stone alone. Natural Stat Trick has him delivering reasonable results save for a two-year PDO dip in 2014-15 and 2015-16. He’s never going to move the puck like Sekera, he isn’t going to be an adequate partner for Kris Russell, but I think he might be a reasonable addition to the roster.

  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Darnell Nurse—Matt Benning
  • Martin Marincin—Kris Russell
  • Kevin Gravel

It’s an exercise in futility, and the dream of Sekera-Bear or Sekera-Bouchard should be put to bed, but that is (perhaps unsurprisingly) the most likely scenario for opening night in my opinion:

  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Darnell Nurse—Matt Benning
  • Kris Russell—Evan Bouchard
  • Kevin Gravel—Keegan Lowe

That is my best guess this morning. I think the Oilers will run eight defenders in Cologne and Sweden and then make their decision upon return.

Bottom line: This is a huge blow. A rocking chair third pairing of Sekera and a young righty was too much to dream. The Edmonton Oilers 2018-19 are in trouble. Right now.

 

 

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192 Responses to "Moon over Marincin"

  1. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Well. That’s just sad… I feel my earlier optimism slipping away like waking from a dream.

    So that’s all the free agent D out there right now? Wow.

  2. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    I suppose with some LTIR spending money – maybe a trade works. Any options that jump to mind?

    Or – and I imagine I will get creamed for this – what about Emelin?

    (Ducks for cover)

  3. Jordan says:

    Franson or Davidson are reasonable bets.

    They would be where I would be putting my money for the season.

    I saw a number of people suggesting we use the LTIR Money this year to sign Darnell long term. Hand shake agreement until after the season starts and the LTIR is available.

    Aren’t there risks for next off-season if we pursue that? I beleive Rej’s cap hit dissapears if he retires now, as he’s not yet over 35. That’s the only long term cap relief I can see that allows a Nurse longer term deal.

    Interesting wrinkles. Hope this doesn’t ruin 18-19.

  4. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Jordan:
    Franson or Davidson are reasonable bets.

    They would be where I would be putting my money for the season.

    I saw a number of people suggesting we use the LTIR Money this year to sign Darnell long term.Hand shake agreement until after the season starts and the LTIR is available.

    Aren’t there risks for next off-season if we pursue that?I beleive Rej’s cap hit dissapears if he retires now, as he’s not yet over 35.That’s the only long term cap relief I can see that allows a Nurse longer term deal.

    Interesting wrinkles.Hope this doesn’t ruin 18-19.

    Right Davidson – I forgot about that. Any chance to use the cap space now then for a vet RW? Wingels? Shore? Or even Winnik? Two of them a re long in the tooth but…

    Just looking for some way to shore (no pun intended) things up in the absence of D options…

    This is looking grim.

  5. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Slava Voynov?? I know, I know. But he is trying to get reinstated, and whoever takes a gamble on him (and some team definitely will) will probably be getting a pretty solid RHD for less than market price. If we don’t add someone, kiss the playoffs goodbye by December again.

  6. OilSafety says:

    Lowetide,

    Do you like Marincin better than Davidson? Do we have room for both?

    I agree they dont replace Sekera, but if its going to be Defense by committee we need a deeper committee with some NHL games played.

  7. deardylan says:

    The Sekera news was tough to wake up to. Huge Injury, Not Ready To Play, Career Threatening Injury. I can only imagine how difficult it must be for a pro athlete not to have a healthy body for such a long time. Prayers and wellwishes to him a speedy recovery as has been a very tough year for him and his family. Oilers will miss him.

    PS. Armchair GM you asked me yesterday:
    What is your field of expertise, if you don’t mind me asking?

    My experience and expertise in these 4 areas:

    Colleges – teaching business courses

    Consultant- sales and HR consultant with startups based out of coworking spaces, HR for non HR leaders – helping them build their dream team blueprints, action plan and then keep them accountable.

    Community – career coach for college, university students, those ready for career transition, non profit clients.

    Coaching – business coach for executives, middle managers to help their career/skillset go from good to great. Such as “coach the coach” so they can learn how to use coaching tools/techniques that they can use in their own leadership/management career.

    Also can help managers who are having trouble in career—they have great IQ yet EQ is struggling and they have conflicts in professional work/colleagues that might derail their future. Usually company calls me in when they can foresee sh** hitting the fan.

    Or someone calls me for one on one work when they want to work on improving their own habits, get rid of annoying addictions and they are ready to make a change. From good to great!

  8. ArmchairGM says:

    Franson and Sproul come to mind. For 1 year / $650k, either one is cheap insurance.

  9. ArmchairGM says:

    deardylan:
    The Sekera news was tough to wake up to. Huge Injury, Not Ready To Play, Career Threatening Injury.I can only imagine how difficult it must be for a pro athlete not to have a healthy body for such a long time. Prayers and wellwishes to him a speedy recovery as has been a very tough year for him and his family. Oilers will miss him.

    PS. Armchair GM you asked me yesterday:
    What is your field of expertise, if you don’t mind me asking?

    My experience and expertise in these areas:

    Colleges – teaching business courses

    Consultant- sales and HR consultant with startups based out of coworking spaces, HR for non HR leaders – helping them build their dream team blueprints, action plan and then keep them accountable.

    Community – career coach for college, university students, those ready for career transition, non profit clients.

    Coaching – business coach for executives, middle managers to help their career/skillset go from good to great. Such as “coach the coach” so they can learn how to use coaching tools/techniques that they can use in their own leadership/management career.

    Also can help managers who are having trouble in career—they have great IQ yet EQ is struggling and they have conflicts in professional work/colleagues that might derail their future.Usually company calls me in when they can foresee sh** hitting the fan.

    Or someone calls me for one on one work when they want to work on improving their own habits, get rid of annoying addictions and they are ready to make a change.From good to great!

    Thanks, good info. So you’re looking in the business consulting field I take it?

  10. Connoreah says:

    I understand that a healthy Sekera anchoring the 3rd pair would have given the Oilers a pretty solid d-core and depth this year.

    Having said that, what were the chances that Sekera was going to be 100%? What about 85%? I feel like we’re treating this injury as though we all knew we’d have 2016 Sekera back in the lineup. I never expected that to be honest and in no way pinned my expectations for the team on him making a big contribution this year.

    *edit*
    To clarify my statement above, I’ve seen the following things listed frequently as the factors that will most likely lead to the Oilers being successful in 2018-19:
    1. Bounce back from Talbot
    2. Healthy Klefbom
    3. Bounce back from Larsson
    4. NOT having the worst penalty kill in the history of the game
    5. New coaching approaches/philosophy
    6. Breakout year from JP
    7. Reider filling a much needed role

    Sekera returning to 2016-17 form was never really a big factor, or at least not something that was discussed often as ‘key to the season success.’

    Question for LT or anyone else here: would the Oilers have a better chance at the playoffs this year if Sekera were playing at 85% at $5 million on your cap, or with Davidson on the 3rd pair with $4 million to add some support either on the back end or up front?

  11. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Connoreah:
    I understand that a healthy Sekera anchoring the 3rd pair would have given the Oilers a pretty solid d-core and depth this year.

    Having said that, what were the chances that Sekera was going to be 100%? What about 85%? I feel like we’re treating this injury as though we all knew we’d have 2016 Sekera back in the lineup. I never expected that to be honest and in no way pinned my expectations for the team on him making a big contribution this year.

    Question for LT or anyone else here: would the Oilers have a better chance at the playoffs this year if Sekera were playing at 85% at $5 million on your cap, or with Davidson on the 3rd pair with $4 million to add some support either on the back end or up front?

    Great points! Still feels like a punch in the gut and probably even more so to Sekera!

  12. Andy Dufresne says:

    “MacT embraced the numbers early and if you applied even simple analysis to the available free agents Sekera came up damn good from this year’s crop. Maybe Peter Chiarelli came in and changed the direction in free agency, but my guess is the math people where screaming at the top of their lungs about acquiring him. He’s good, a perfect fit based on need and availability. Source”

    “Math people” was my code for Dellow, I’ve never confirmed if he had any input in that signing but the timelines rhyme. Folks, it was a good hire (Sekera was 29), you can’t hammer an organization for an ACL injury followed by an achilles shooter.”
    .
    .
    .
    .

    I dont understand these comments…….Whos hammering the organization regarding Sekera??

    It was a GREAT hire…..zero evidence Dellow had anything to do with it…..TONS of evidence Chiarelli did.

  13. Andy Dufresne says:

    Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
    Darnell Nurse—Matt Benning
    Brandon Davidson- Kris Russell
    Kevin Gravel—Keegan Lowe

    Look for another in season move if this 8 doesnt work out.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m not quite as devastated as the host of this blog.

    With Nurse and Klefbom, I had Sekera slatted for the third pairing (moving him to the right side was never a viable option for me).

    With Sekera/Russell, we had the chance to have maybe the best 3rd pairing in the league and that dream is gone, however, I still think we can have a serviceable third paring.

    From accounts, Gravel was establishing himself as an every day 3rd pairing d-man. From an acquaintance of mine who lives in the Valley and watches alot of hockey, Gravel would often look like a solid 5D but in some games he looked like a 9D – so consistency is an issue.

    I’m not enthused by or devastated by:

    Gravel/Russell on a third pairing.

    With Bouchard in the mix, I’m not devastated by:

    Russell/Bouchard

    See how that goes.

    Of course, health of the top 4 has taken on even more importance now as the cover has been lost.

    Of course, bringing in a new 7, Davidson or Enstrom, is important.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maybe Ethan Bear takes a huge step forward in his play away from the puck and we can run a 3rd pair of Russell/Bear? Seems unlikely without at least a few months of AHL time.

    Maybe Willie Lagesson, with pro experience, earns himself a roster spot on merit and we can run Lagesson/Russell – that one seems a bit out there as well.

    Maybe Gravel develops more consistency and runs with that 3LD spot.

    Lots of options out there.

    I wish we had Sekera but I’m not catastrophizing this too much as I had him slatted for the 3rd pairing.

  16. HiddenDarts says:

    If there was one place at one time in the world when you would trade for Karlsson, it is Edmonton and it is now.

    Klefbom, a 2nd and maybe Caleb Jones. That’s all I have, Pierre. What do you think?

  17. Andy Dufresne says:

    “The Edmonton Oilers 2018-19 are in trouble. Right now.”

    I thought you had a top four of

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Nurse – Benning
    Sekera – Russell

    How does the loss of a third pairing Dman spell disaster for the 2018-29 season….when it inlcudes a potential $5million in cap relief in exchange for a third pairing defensemen????

    Is it problematic…maybe….but the trade of young non roster D prospect or two (and a 2019 pick)not named Bouchard (of which we seem to have plenty) could net you a 3rd pair RHD like Justin Faulk.

    Even if the Faulk idea is not likely, there are always 3rd pair D available late summer, and $5million LTIR could turn out to be a huge mitigating factor.

  18. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    Slava Voynov??

    – For what it’s worth: the incident occured 4 years ago: ht is still married to the women, and they have kids, and he’s toiled away in the KHL

    – It’s a tough call, and you’d have to give something to L.A. for him

    – The upside though is that the $5MM that you were going to pay Sek, which risk adjusted lets say he showed up as something better than last year, but not turd-polisher from 2 years ago, you can get maybe a $3MM Kris Russel signing type from 2 years ago, and another $2MM forward

    – The LTIR stuff is so convoluted, it’s actually stupid IMO: But the bottom line is that Sek’s $5MM can be spent on other salaries after going through silly hoops, accruing Cap space, using a ACSL calculator, making paper transactions blah blah..

    https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq

    – When I was doing corporate finance we would hammer lawyers for using such technical terms and make them plain language it: then you realized they weren’t actually smarter: they just used a language and syntax they they only understood, which isnt’ business practical, but that’s an aside

    – Here’s what the rule should be:

    1) If a players is injured in the off-season and is unable to report to camp and start the season, his salary is deducted from the team’s salary cap, creating the equivalent cap room

    2) For greater certainly, if the salary cap is $80MM, and a $5MM player is injured and is not medically cleared: there is $5MM of relief. Should that player return, his cap hit will equal his salary/games played that season and will be added back.

    – Or something to that effect…

    – Instead, like the tax system, you encourage a bunch of resources being applied (and the policed), in order to pay people, when it could be a lot simpler.

  19. AshetonisGod says:

    OilSafety:
    Lowetide,

    Do you like Marincin better than Davidson? Do we have room for both?

    I agree they dont replace Sekera, but if its going to be Defense by committee we need a deeper committee with some NHL games played.

    I think we need two. What happens if/when one of Klef/Larsson/Nurse/Benning get injured?

  20. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    HiddenDarts:
    If there was one place at one time in the world when you would trade for Karlsson, it is Edmonton and it is now.

    Klefbom, a 2nd and maybe Caleb Jones. That’s all I have, Pierre. What do you think?

    Well that would certainly be an upgrade! I’be all for that, I suppose though it would be for only one year then there’s the pesky issue that Karlsson will never come to Edmonton.

    Still maybe there’s a chance (as my dad used to say a “snowball’s chance in hell”?) or as it has been mentioned maybe we can look at this as a chance to re-add Davidson plus some veteran forward and maybe get a leap forward from our D depth….

    Maybe the addition of a Winnik or Wingels or even Emelin adds something. Maybe also this is the time the team pulls together.

    (Trying to maintain a moderate level of optimism here. Trying very very hard)

  21. leadfarmer says:

    I don’t think Achilles will knock out Sekera for the remainder of his career, but back to back surgeries mean he’s not going to be very productive when he gets back.
    What’s his buyout look like?

  22. dustrock says:

    Woodguy, LT and others.

    Really enjoyed Dellow drilling down on why some bottom pair D-men have good possession metrics against good competition.

    https://theathletic.com/468934/2018/08/15/dellow-how-mike-babcock-and-others-are-sheltering-defencemen-while-playing-them-against-top-opposition/

    Some good analysis on on-the-fly shift changes and the “quality” of time spent against tough competition.

    Ie. you figure Nurse and Larsson are likely playing against a fresh top line, the puck gets moved out, they change, then Russell-Benning or whoever get 10 seconds of time against the top line, but the other team recovers the Oilers’ dump in and then their top line does a shift change as well.

    So the bottom pair gets TOI against elite comp, but in no way where you’d expect anything dangerous to happen.

    Wonder if Puck IQ could then drill down to give a “Quality of Ice Time” against Elites/etc

  23. jtblack says:

    Is this team one broken McClavicle away from the Jack Hughes sweepstakes??

  24. russ99 says:

    A few reasonable counter-arguments about the roster (due goal/Corsi focus around here, vs. how NHL coaches utilize players) that need to be at least discussed before dismissing out of hand:

    1. Reider is a known quantity, and Rattie, Puljujarvi and Yamamoto are not. Thus despite goal projection of players/prospects who haven’t put up NHL numbers, and discussion of what designates a NHL top six and bottom six player are means Rieder has an inside track at top 6 wing, unless a kid blows the door off in camp.

    2. The third line needs to be a soft minutes line, not a unicorn all-scoring line. The top opposition always plays McDavid’s line, and I expect more from Leon’s line this year drawing second toughest opposition so there’s a real opportunity to build growth in players who haven’t shown much so far in soft minutes. I like Khaira – Strome – Aberg.

    3. With Sekera’s injury, we all know that come the season, McLellan is going to run Klefbom – Larsson and Nurse – Russell (This pair had success last year) hard and use the third pair for lesser minutes. So get yer whining out of the way. LOL.

    4. Stats are making you guys give Benning a huge push, but when it comes down to it, coaches are going to utilize players that can make plays without the puck, and Benning is our weakest defender at this, behind Bear and Gravel (if healthy). For all the hate that Gryba got around here, Benning’s D-zone play is similar. Good on the wall, good hitter, awful one on one and in the crease. Albeit he has better wheels, better passing and Corsi. Besides, Nurse can play up more effectively with Russell as D-cover, that disappears with Benning as we saw with all those horrid odd man breaks last season.

    5. Also, discounting the typical Corsi biases, the only real knock fans have against Russell is zone exit play, and if the new coaches bring in a system (as quoted) where our D don’t hold the puck or pass from D to D, have forwards stop cherry-picking and and perform better on the exit pass as a unit, Russell could be an improved player in this discipline this year.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Sekera was key. He settled down the Russell minutes and would have been ideal as mentor fir the kids

  26. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’m not quite as devastated as the host of this blog.

    – Same: Sure we have lost the upside of the Sek returning to circa 2016.

    – Gravel was the insurance providing the “floor” as reasonable approximation of Sek circa 2017

    – Now they have to go out and get someone to compete with Gravel, to raise that “floor”

    – We lost some upside on Sek’s perfect return, but we have the off-season to improve

    – As I said before his absence at least creates certainly: less “hoping” is permitted

  27. Oilin4 says:

    Could Benning babysit a third pair?

    Kelf-Larsson
    Nurse-Russel
    X-Benning

  28. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide:
    Andy Dufresne,

    Sekera was key. He settled down the Russell minutes and would have been ideal as mentor fir the kids

    – 100% Sek was key. At best we could have hoped for that. It’s a blow, but better than counting on him as the mentor and realizing in the pre-season that Sek wasn’t 100% IMO

  29. J-Bo says:

    Like some others here, i believe this is not the “sky is falling” type stuff. A bad blow, but surmountable to be sure. I like the idea of acquiring a third pair right handed defenseman. Let Russell anchor the third pair on the left side as he should acquit himself quite well there. Faulk is an obvious, but may be complicated the following year once Sekera is ready to come back? There isn’t a lot out there for RHD after Faulk that is appealing and I know Woodguy and others have major objections to him, but that is the route I would seek first. Likely not super expensive either. Sorry Lt, but Russell and Franson on a third pair looks awful to me from here. Maybe it would be better then I’m thinking, but I think it would be ugly.

  30. rbjork says:

    russ99,

    I also hate when Russell lies on the ground, and gets skated around, oh and he is pretty bad on challenging zone entries as well.

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Sekera injury is a tough hit, no doubt about that. It will really hit us if and when a material injury to the top 4 happens, and that is probably likely.

    With that said, the healthy defensive group, to me, is still much better than what we ended having last year. We didn’t have Sekera last year for most of the year and, when we did, he was a shadow of himself. I, of course, projected him to be much better this season, not necessarily 100% but definitely much better than we saw last year and I thought it would lead to an elite 3rd pairing with Russell. We won’t have that any more, however, as compared to last year, losing Sekera is simply a saw-off, we didn’t have him last year.

    We still have, going in to the season:

    – a healthy Klefbom which we never had at any point last year – sure he may get hurt but, as of right now, he’s 100% with a full off-season of training and that is a massive help.

    – a healthy Larsson – lets not forget he played with a bad back for much of the first half of last year and missed some time with it eventually. He was fantastic down the stretch last year and unreal good in the Worlds\

    – a Nurse that is in prime development years and should take another step from last year. Further with both Klef and Sekera out last year, Nurse played huge minutes, he was 5th in the league for TOI at even strength. With Klef healthy (at least for now), hopefully his minutes can be reduced at bit at evens which I would think helps his game a bit.

    I’m looking forward to seeing a healthy Klefbom and Larsson who are each a year older and likely about ready to start their primes (I consider prime for d-men a bit later than forwards).

    Russell should be about the same as last year – he’s at the age where he’s not going to get better but should regress yet.

    Benning is getting to the point where he’ll be at the end of his development curve I would think but he still has some room to grow and hopefully he can take his game up one level and establish himself as a 2nd pairing guy – that would go along way.

    Anyways, I was looking forward to a healthier Sekera this year giving us great depth, that’s gone, however, going in to the season, the defensive group is still better than it was last year.

  32. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer:
    I don’t think Achilles will knock out Sekera for the remainder of his career, but back to back surgeries mean he’s not going to be very productive when he gets back.
    What’s his buyout look like?

    Are you even allowed to buyout an injured player?

  33. John Chambers says:

    Perhaps Sekera’s injury is an opportunity- $5.5M in new cap space.

    I’d probably rather have Faulk than Sekera. I’d also much rather have Erik Karlsson.

    Would you trade a 2019 first + Marody + Ethan Bear + 2020 2nd for Karlsson, even if it was just a single year?

  34. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    John Chambers:
    Perhaps Sekera’s injury is an opportunity- $5.5M in new cap space.

    I’d probably rather have Faulk than Sekera. I’d also much rather have Erik Karlsson.

    Would you trade a 2019 first + Marody + Ethan Bear + 2020 2nd for Karlsson, even if it was just a single year?

    For a single year of Karlsson that seems a pretty steep price. A signed Karlsson? That would probably be a different thing altogether.

    Just an opinion, mind you – we do tend to get overly protective or prospects and picks but there is a chance the 2019 first round pick will be in good territory.

  35. who says:

    John Chambers:
    Perhaps Sekera’s injury is an opportunity- $5.5M in new cap space.

    I’d probably rather have Faulk than Sekera. I’d also much rather have Erik Karlsson.

    Would you trade a 2019 first + Marody + Ethan Bear + 2020 2nd for Karlsson, even if it was just a single year?

    No

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    AshetonisGod: I think we need two. What happens if/when one of Klef/Larsson/Nurse/Benning get injured?

    This is it exactly.

    The people who are saying “no big deal, he was going to play 3rd pair” are missing the fact that it removes an Actual NHL Top 4 Dman from the roster who was able to cover in the top 4 for injuries, and there will be injuries.

    Depth,depth,depth.

    The lack of depth due to Sekera, Klef, Larsson all getting hurt last year was the biggest reason they got killed 5v5.

    They need depth and losing Sekera a big blow to that

  37. who says:

    Connoreah:
    I understand that a healthy Sekera anchoring the 3rd pair would have given the Oilers a pretty solid d-core and depth this year.

    Having said that, what were the chances that Sekera was going to be 100%? What about 85%? I feel like we’re treating this injury as though we all knew we’d have 2016 Sekera back in the lineup. I never expected that to be honest and in no way pinned my expectations for the team on him making a big contribution this year.

    *edit*
    To clarify my statement above, I’ve seen the following things listed frequently as the factors that will most likely lead to the Oilers being successful in 2018-19:
    1. Bounce back from Talbot
    2. Healthy Klefbom
    3. Bounce back from Larsson
    4. NOT having the worst penalty kill in the history of the game
    5. New coaching approaches/philosophy
    6. Breakout year from JP
    7. Reider filling a much needed role

    Sekera returning to 2016-17 form was never really a big factor, or at least not something that was discussed often as ‘key to the season success.’

    Question for LT or anyone else here: would the Oilers have a better chance at the playoffs this year if Sekera were playing at 85% at $5 million on your cap, or with Davidson on the 3rd pair with $4 million to add some support either on the back end or up front?

    Veey good take on the Sekera injury. Devastating injury for the player but not a death blow to the team, if we can use the cap space productively.
    Referring back to some of the anti Getzlaf comments from last thread;
    I am sure there are plenty of reasons for Oiler fans to hate Ryan Getzlaf. But the hit that caused the first injury shouldnt be one of them.
    It was a shoulder to shoulder hit into the boards after a Sekera dump in. That play happens 50 times a game and nobody blinks an eye.

  38. Bank Shot says:

    I’d rather sign a guy like Tobias Enstrom and hope for a bounceback season over guys like Davidson, Marincin, or Franson.

    Those guys weren’t good even when they were good.

    At least Enstrom was good, and maybe he could rekindle some magic looking for one last payday.

  39. John Chambers says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    Indeed we overvalue prospects.

    I perceive the trade market for Karlsson to have hit a low ebb, and if a collection of second-tier prospects were to fit the bill, it seems like a price one might be willing to pay for a season of balance.

  40. Jaxon says:

    Re-post from yesterday:

    Should the Oilers be scouring the waiver wires for a RHD now?

    They won’t have a lot of money until Sekera is on LTIR but do they want to wait that long to shore up the position. I still think Nurse gets 4.0 to 4.167 x 1 or 2 years. That would mean they’ll have less than $1M (if my math is anywhere close to Correctville), so AHL may be the place to go hunting and a right hander makes sense if you want to keep Russell on the left and push Gravel into the press box and Bear to Bakersfield.

    Of Players who met thresholds of Top pair TOI so the coach trusted them to play against toughs, and Top 62 in Pts/60 &/or P1/60 in the AHL, here are the top RHD under 27 yrs old this fall:

    Age(Sep15) Name eTOI/GP Team eP/60 Waivers eP1/60 – HT – GF%
    25.671 Ryan Sproul 14.88 GR/HFD 1.07 U 0.9 – 6’4″, 205lbs – 40.85%
    26.627 Justin Holl 16.51 TOR 1.58 W 0.73 – 6’3″, 205lbs – 59.77%
    25.888 Adam Clendening 15.06 TUC/RFD 1.15 W 0.68 – 6’0″, 195lbs – 57.69%
    22.895 Anthony DeAngelo 15.55 HFD 0.93 W 0.8 – 5’11”, 181lbs – 40.43% (3 teams in 3 years)
    21.885 Rasmus Andersson 16.63 STK 1.68 X 0.9 – 6’0″, 214lbs – 58.89%
    25.272 Tucker Poolman 15.06 MB 1.41 X 1.41 – 6’2″, 198lbs – 44.00%
    22.367 Kyle Wood 15.52 TUC 1.18 X 0.47 – 6’7″, 236lbs – 60.00%
    21.313 Brennan Menell 14.85 IA 1.07 X 0.73 – 5’11”, 183lbs – 48.89%

    Sproul is a UFA and could be signed today.
    Holl (TOR), Clendening (CBJ, likely won’t go back to the well on him), DeAngelo (NYR) have to go through waivers if sent down this year.
    Andersson (CGY difficult to trade with), Poolman (WPG contributed in the playoffs so not likely), Wood (SJS), and Menell (MIN) are waiver exempt so would have to be traded for.

    Those with a good GF% Holl, Clendening, Andersson, Wood, Menell. As some of you recall, I was pretty high on Kyle Wood last summer, too when he was still with Arizona. SJS signed him this summer. Holl and Andersson look like the best players last season from these metrics and Andersson is only 21. Nice pick for CGY at #53 in 2015. Holl is a vet of 142 NCAA games, 194 AHL games and just 2 NHL games. His scouting reports talk about his D zone stability. Holl is big, fast, defensively sound, and last season represented a big uptick in production.

    Old scouting report from Hockeys Future: “Holl combines a projectable 6’2 frame with excellent skating ability. He is a strong puck-mover on the blue line with vision and passing ability. His defensive-zone play improved over the course of his college career and Holl also played forward while at Minnesota. He is not overly-physical despite his size. and relies on positioning and quick reads to make plays in his own zone.”

    Klefbom / Larsson
    Nurse / Benning
    Russell / Bouchard for 9 games then Bear or New pickup like Sproul or Holl
    or
    Gravel / Russell

  41. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM: Are you even allowed to buyout an injured player?

    Its an Achilles tendon. He will recover from that. He will be off IR and skating in the spring and probably ready to return next fall. After having back to back surgeries as a 33 year old next season at what level can we expect him to play? 1.5 mil dollar level player? 2.5 mil? Definitely not a 5.5 mil player.

  42. John Chambers says:

    Any plan that has Gravel or similar in your top-6 and Russell anchoring the right side on the second pair is not a playoff lineup. It’s also fantastical to think Evan Bourchard can play like a competent veteran.

    Chiarelli needs to trade for an NHL defenseman to save the season and he has now been gifted the cap space.

  43. Jordan says:

    John Chambers:
    Perhaps Sekera’s injury is an opportunity- $5.5M in new cap space.

    I’d probably rather have Faulk than Sekera. I’d also much rather have Erik Karlsson.

    Would you trade a 2019 first + Marody + Ethan Bear + 2020 2nd for Karlsson, even if it was just a single year?

    This ignores the Salary Cap. The Oilers cannot absorb the Karlsson cap hit, so salary would have to go back, unless there were a time delay on the trade into the season for when the LTIR space allows Karlsson to be added (and presumes Rej is gone for the entire year).

    If there was a way to fit him in, I’d consider it, but I don’t see it right now.

  44. John Chambers says:

    Jordan,

    Technically it can be done –

    Kassian could be traded, Puljujarvi could be sent to the AHL for a day, or Nurse can be signed on the flight to Europe.

    It’s navigable.

  45. Buckys move says:

    Shall we restart the Gryba buyout discussion?

  46. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This is it exactly.

    The people who are saying “no big deal, he was going to play 3rd pair” are missing the fact that it removes an Actual NHL Top 4 Dman from the roster who was able to cover in the top 4 for injuries, and there will be injuries.

    Depth,depth,depth.

    The lack of depth due to Sekera, Klef, Larsson all getting hurt last year was the biggest reason they got killed 5v5.

    They need depth and losing Sekera a big blow to that

    I think what most people are saying is that while this is difficult it is not as critical to success as last year! We have more depth to withstand this setback. With any kind of good luck one or two of our yound D will be ready for third pairinng role by Christmas. The only catastrophic injury as far as D is concerned in my opinion would be an injury to Larsson! He is the rock of our D corps. To panic and make a trade or put ourselves further into cap hell before we see where we are at seems in my opinion unwise.

  47. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer: Its an Achilles tendon.He will recover from that.He will be off IR and skating in the spring and probably ready to return next fall.After having back to back surgeries asa 33 year old next season at what level can we expect him to play?1.5 mil dollar level player?2.5 mil?Definitely not a 5.5 mil player.

    A summer 2019 buyout would create 4 years’ cap hits: $2.5M / 2.5 / 1.5 / 1.5

  48. Connoreah says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This is it exactly.

    The people who are saying “no big deal, he was going to play 3rd pair” are missing the fact that it removes an Actual NHL Top 4 Dman from the roster who was able to cover in the top 4 for injuries, and there will be injuries.

    Depth,depth,depth.

    The lack of depth due to Sekera, Klef, Larsson all getting hurt last year was the biggest reason they got killed 5v5.

    They need depth and losing Sekera a big blow to that

    What makes you so certain that Sekera – had he not blown his ankle out – would have been a servicable top 4 this year?

    What’s more likely? A 32 year old with a reconstructed knee getting back to top 4 condition, or a healthy 29 year old Lucic bouncing back and providing top 6 contributions after the worst 6 months of his career?

    *edit* I’m only raising the Lucic example because following this past season, suggesting he’d bounce back was often met with “not at his age”, whereas there seems to be an assumption that a broken 32 year old would have absolutely bounced back to 2016 levels.

  49. Bag of Pucks says:

    I miss the old days of the NHL when something like this would happen and the grizzled Head Coach (visualize pork pie hat and a cigar nub) would say something like, ‘Rej broke his wing. Effin’ guy has the durability of a flamingo with osteoporosis. Kassian! Talk to the trainer about thicker shin-guards. We’re moving you to defence!”

  50. Bag of Pucks says:

    You know you’re in trouble when Adam Clendening’s name comes up as a viable signing.

  51. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – For what it’s worth: the incident occured 4 years ago: ht is still married to the women, and they have kids, and he’s toiled away in the KHL

    – It’s a tough call, and you’d have to give something to L.A. for him

    – The upside though is that the $5MM that you were going to pay Sek, which risk adjusted lets say he showed up as something better than last year, but not turd-polisher from 2 years ago, you can get maybe a $3MM Kris Russel signing type from 2 years ago, and another $2MM forward

    – The LTIR stuff is so convoluted, it’s actually stupid IMO: But the bottom line is that Sek’s $5MM can be spent on other salaries after going through silly hoops, accruing Cap space, using a ACSL calculator, making paper transactions blah blah..

    https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq

    – When I was doing corporate finance we would hammer lawyers for using such technical terms and make them plain language it: then you realized they weren’t actually smarter: they just used a language and syntax they they only understood, which isnt’ business practical, but that’s an aside

    – Here’s what the rule should be:

    1) If a players is injured in the off-season and is unable to report to camp and start the season, his salary is deducted from the team’s salary cap, creating the equivalent cap room

    2) For greater certainly, if the salary cap is $80MM, and a $5MM player is injured and is not medically cleared: there is $5MM of relief.Should that player return, his cap hit will equal his salary/games played that season and will be added back.

    – Or something to that effect…

    – Instead, like the tax system, you encourage a bunch of resources being applied (and the policed), in order to pay people, when it could be a lot simpler.

    I think Voynov is UFA, but is still suspended at this point. Wouldn’t this be a great time for Chia to fleece another GM for a change? Whatever happened to all the talk of adding an impact defenceman at the start of the offseason? They had it at the top of their priority list, drafted Bouchard (who is not the answer this season), and then crossed their arms and nodded in approval to each other. With Sekara out now, wouldn’t that turn up the heat under Chia’s seat?

  52. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Enstrom had very good results last year in a top 4 role. Played mostly with Byfuglien, but was a good partner for him.

    Terrible playoff, but was coming off injury.

    Slot him at 3LD and move up as needed.

    I’m officially on the “Sign Toby for 1 year” band wagon. #SignToby

  53. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This is it exactly.

    The people who are saying “no big deal, he was going to play 3rd pair” are missing the fact that it removes an Actual NHL Top 4 Dman from the roster who was able to cover in the top 4 for injuries, and there will be injuries.

    Depth,depth,depth.

    The lack of depth due to Sekera, Klef, Larsson all getting hurt last year was the biggest reason they got killed 5v5.

    They need depth and losing Sekera a big blow to that

    There’s probably about 4 teams that have the depth to weather losing two quality D. The Oilers are not alone in this conundrum. Until the prospects bubbling under start seriously competing for playing time, this D core was always a paper thin construct that was a substantial injury or two away from disaster.

    Before this happened, I posted yesterday if they were to lose Larsson, they’d be absolutely screwed. That’s never been truer than today.

    Injuries are the biggest minefield in pro sports. Nothing will sewer a promising season faster.

  54. Psyche says:

    My early target is Tobias Enstrom. Maybe he’s available for 1 year x $1.5-2.0 million?

    He’s a veteran LHD, plays well enough in both ends, and is Swedish! He can do spot duty in the top 4 to cover for injuries. Maybe he gels well playing for the new assistant coaches.

    Here’s a recent article with some in-depth analysis:
    https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2018/6/30/17516610/tobias-enstrom-montreal-canadiens-2018-free-agency-target-isnt-finished-yet-stats-analysis-jets

  55. godot10 says:

    A reminder: Darnell Nurse is still unsigned.

    I’m not sure what our current contract number is at. I’d be more tempted to wait for the waiver wire than to sign from the UFA’s that are out there.

    If one waits for the waiver wire late in training camp, other teams will be more willing to trade a player at a reasonable price than lose him on waivers for nothing.

    The Oilers can send Puljujarvi/Yamamoto down in a paper transaction for a day or two at the start of the season to make room for a pre-season waiver claim or a signing of an Enstrom or equivalent. Then, once Sekera goes on LTIR on Day 1, the Oilers are back in business.

  56. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Enstrom had very good results last year in a top 4 role.Played mostly with Byfuglien, but was a good partner for him.

    Terrible playoff, but was coming off injury.

    Slot him at 3LD and move up as needed.

    I’m officially on the “Sign Toby for 1 year” band wagon. #SignToby

    I’m down. He’s practicing and considering signing with MODO right now, so there probably isn’t any non-PTO competition, and he played in Winnipeg so he shouldn’t mind Edmonton, hopefully.

    Also, the quote from Chiarellli about cap space opening up is downright terrifying.

  57. Psyche says:

    godot10: The Oilers can send Puljujarvi/Yamamoto down in a paper transaction for a day or two at the start of the season to make room for a pre-season waiver claim or a signing of an Enstrom or equivalent. Then, once Sekera goes on LTIR on Day 1, the Oilers are back in business.

    Great point Godot10!

  58. godot10 says:

    It is almost for certain guaranteed that Jesse Puljujarvi will be not be on the roster until Sekera is put on LTIR. I hope some one sits down with him and explains why. (i.e. $2.5 million in cap space).

  59. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10:
    It is almost for certain guaranteed that Jesse Puljujarvi will be not be on the roster until Sekera is put on LTIR.I hope some one sits down with him and explains why.(i.e. $2.5 million in cap space).

    My understanding is it would be just his salary without bonuses = $925k in cap space. It’s “only for a day” but it would sure suck for him to miss the one game close to home due to a CBA technicality.

  60. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    John Chambers:
    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    Indeed we overvalue prospects.

    I perceive the trade market for Karlsson to have hit a low ebb, and if a collection of second-tier prospects were to fit the bill, it seems like a price one might be willing to pay for a season of balance.

    Absolutely agree. Would not relish losing Klefbom in the process though!

  61. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Wilde,

    Have a source for the Chiarelli quote?? TIA

  62. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    I too like the Toby Enstrom Option!

    No love for Emelin I see! (JK)

  63. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Psyche:
    My early target is Tobias Enstrom. Maybe he’s available for 1 year x $1.5-2.0 million?

    He’s a veteran LHD, plays well enough in both ends, and is Swedish! He can do spot duty in the top 4 to cover for injuries. Maybe he gels well playing for the new assistant coaches.

    Here’s a recent article with some in-depth analysis:
    https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2018/6/30/17516610/tobias-enstrom-montreal-canadiens-2018-free-agency-target-isnt-finished-yet-stats-analysis-jets

    I’m with you, Wilde & Woodguy on Enstrom, just mentioned him on my weekly spot on the Lowdown with Dan Tencer (I think that’s what it’s called… 🙂 ) as the most Sekera-like defender out there on the “available” list. Veteran, mobile, puck-mover, smart, injury-prone … gah!

    After three 82-game seasons to start his career, he has missed an average of 20 games a season since. Last season he also saw his ATOI sharply cut from 22-ish minutes to just 17, another possible red flag. Reggie II?

  64. geowal says:

    How you view this injury has a lot to do with how you view the remaining top 3 (plus Benning and Russell). If you think a top pair of Larsson and Klefbom is just peachy, then this injury probably doesn’t bother you as much. If you’d like to see that pair playing closer to 20 minutes a night than 27, well, that’s where this is painful as you can’t send out Sekera Russell (or Benning) put as a 3rd pair to outplay low end comp.

  65. BONE207 says:

    Poor Sekera…the only thing going for him right now is that he is still a honeymooner! Possibly another silver lining is that this way KR will probably play left D. C’mon some kid…step up & play hockey. Possibilities aren’t endless but hopefully conversations have been had/ongoing about things like this.

  66. Bag of Pucks says:

    Btw love the Dead Kennedys reference LT.

    If you’ve never heard Matt Good’s cover of Moon over Marin, do check it out. Sublime.

  67. leadfarmer says:

    Connoreah,

    ACL reconstructions are actually pretty good these days. This is not your parents ACL reconstruction. Teddy Bridgewater is still in the NFL fighting for a job after destroying all his knee ligaments and almost losing his leg. Sure younger patient but the two injurious are not even on a close scale.

  68. jtblack says:

    IMHO the Oilers entered the season with Excellent talent and Depth @ 2 Positions.

    Centre – MCDAVID DRAI STROME BRODZIAK
    LHD – KLEFBOM NURSE SEKERA

    This injury completely changes LHD, from a strenght to a big question mark.

    Nurse’s agent is Smiling 🙂

  69. dustrock says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Btw love the Dead Kennedy’s reference LT.

    If you’ve never heard Matt Good’s cover of Moon over Marin, do check it out. Sublime.

    yes indeed maybe DK can be our next musical fixture for the blog

  70. Professor Q says:

    After seeing The Athletic article on Sekera and Achilles injuries by Willis, it makes one really wonder what all these players are doing in Summer training to rupture and/or injure otherwise their Achilles tendons so frequently.

  71. norm_klassen says:

    When your training; if you do not take the time to deal with muscle imbalances you can defintly injur yourself training. The Achilles could have been overexerted by over compensating the rest of the leg.

  72. pts2pndr says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour: Absolutely agree. Would not relish losing Klefbom in the process though!

    I do not see how any clear thinking person would even consider this deal unless it came with a guaranteed contract extension. The price for a one year rental is way too high!

  73. Woogie63 says:

    If we traded a first and a second would that shake Reinhart free? 😋

  74. bendelson says:

    Bag of Pucks: Btw love the Dead Kennedy’s reference LT.

    Damn! How did I miss that LT DK reference?
    How very disappointing…

  75. Side says:

    Professor Q:
    After seeing The Athletic article on Sekera and Achilles injuries by Willis, it makes one really wonder what all these players are doing in Summer training to rupture and/or injure otherwise their Achilles tendons so frequently.

    Achilles can be really finnicky/weird. I know a couple of people who injured their achilles doing sports, but not as a result of doing something very athletic in their said sport.

    1 person snapped his achilles just by walking backwards.

    The other partially tore his by also just walking around. He’s not even sure when it happened he just started feeling pain.

    Both are older than Sekera, but still, achilles can be weird.

  76. DLite says:

    Lowetide,

    These are without a doubt things we’ll miss Lowetide, but if the top 4 is still intact why is it so far fetched to think their 3rd pair could be sheltered and at least tread water? There do seem to be internal and external options that could help that 3rd pair stay afloat at least. A lot of our disappointment (mine included) was based on the assumption that Rej would return to 16-17 form but if we’re being honest that was far from a guarantee. Nonetheless, as my grandfather used to say ‘keep your pecker up’ and cheer for the unlikely FA signing or an internal option stepping up and seizing the obvious opportunity =)

  77. DLite says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Has anyone forwarded this to Chiarelli yet?

  78. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    Yes, Rel and Rel T are closely correlated.

    They diverge for more than a few players and often those are the players who are put in the toughest situations.

    You missed an important point that I wrote:

    Pointing at a Rel without describing a player’s most common usage and team mates doesn’t show or prove anything about how good or bad the player is.

    If you use straight Rels without context you turn into those guys who think that heavily sheltered 3rd pairing Dmen are among the best in the NHL and coaches are stupid for not realizing it.

    This used to be common ~4 years ago, but now most people are couching the results with usage.

    Here’s an example:

    Dallas Dmen this past year:

    PlayerRel GF%
    Dan Hamhuis-15.08
    Esa Lindell4.28
    Greg Pateryn-5.48
    Jamie Oleksiak2.9
    John Klingberg9.34
    Julius Honka-3.92
    Stephen Johns2.14

    It looks like Hamhuis and Pateryn should be run out of town. (DAL didn’t resign either)

    What this doesn’t show us is that both of them were over 40% vs Elite Forwards, toughest usage on the team.

    It also doesn’t show us that when on the ice vs the toughs they were usually with Faska’s line and not Benn’s.

    It also doesn’t show us that a lot more of Klingberg’s shifts vs toughs came on On The Fly (puck already moving to Ozone, Benn often on the ice) compared to Hamhuis.

    Etc, etc.

    There’s a lot of context needed to flesh out these results.

    So imo Klingberg is good, but his usage pumped up his results.Hamhuius is older and probably shouldn’t be taking on toughs so much, but his coach put him in one of the toughest spots in the league last year, and his results are much worst than the player imo.

    Perhaps I should have said: “Posting a player’s Rel anything without context is pretty meh, but RelT is less meh as it takes into account more player and less context”

    – Saying Rel and RelT are closely correlated means knowing the value of one metric is very helpful in predicting the value of the other metric. The two seem to be measuring the same thing.

    – Your take, despite this, seems to be RelT tells you more than Rel even though I’ve shown you that they’re highly correlated and that RelT has 0 predictive value for defensemen season-to-season. ZERO predictive value. If RelT is telling us something about a defenseman’s “true” ability or talent, there should be at least a mild correlation from season to season. There isn’t. That should give you a ton of pause but you don’t even mention it in your response.

    – You still think RelT is “less meh as it takes into account more player and less context.” I’m not sure what you wanted to say here but I’m guessing what you meant was that it takes into account less player and more context.

    – So, let’s try it with Klingberg and Hamhuis, just for fun.

    – Klingberg was 9.34 Rel GF% and 9.25 RelT GF%. Adjusting for teammates, he was still a strongly positive influence on goals.

    – Hamhuis was -15.08 Rel GF% and -18.06 RelT GF%. You suggest that he was playing with worse teammates than Klingberg and this contributed to his numbers. But when you adjust for that with RelT, his performance didn’t improve, it shows worse.

    – Maybe a bad example of fleshing out the results with context. But what do I know?

  79. DLite says:

    Professor Q,

    I tore my Achilles (coaching HS football), my good friend did (floor hockey), my mother did (pickleball), Donovan Bailey did (running backwards on a bball court), JC Sherritt did (jogging after a play) – my point being that they’re completely random and not indicative of someone being in bad shape or training improperly. All doctors and physio I’ve dealt with all said the same thing: this injury just strikes at the most random times. Probably due to a combination of aging tendons but still strong enough calf muscle that it can pull on the Achilles too hard during seemingly normal movements and the tendon gives.

  80. PerryK says:

    Oilin4:
    Could Benning babysit a third pair?

    Kelf-Larsson
    Nurse-Russel
    X-Benning

    No! And if playing on right, Russell is completely wrong as 2 pairing. He may be okay if very sheltered.

  81. Lowetide says:

    DLite:
    Lowetide,

    These are without a doubt things we’ll miss Lowetide, but if the top 4 is still intact why is it so far fetched to think their 3rd pair could be sheltered and at least tread water? There do seem to be internal and external options that could help that 3rd pair stay afloat at least. A lot of our disappointment (mine included) was based on the assumption that Rej would return to 16-17 form but if we’re being honest that was far from a guarantee. Nonetheless, as my grandfather used to say ‘keep your pecker up’ and cheer for the unlikely FA signing or an internal option stepping up and seizing the obvious opportunity =)

    As late as yesterday (Riesen to Believe) I wrote the following about Sekera:

    Andrej Sekera, 32. How close to full Rej will he be on opening night? That’s the question. He is a brilliant passer and filthy in overtime, plus he can defend against quality. On the other hand, he is now 32 and that’s a factor—especially coming back from injury. 100%.

    I’m fully aware of what Sekera is and isn’t, from my point of view he was both Russell’s straightener and rocking chair for the kids. Edmonton badly needed both, and now lack them. I’m surprised at how many posters are viewing this as a minor issue. It’s a big deal, as I stated in the original item.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan:
    Franson or Davidson are reasonable bets.

    They would be where I would be putting my money for the season.

    I saw a number of people suggesting we use the LTIR Money this year to sign Darnell long term.Hand shake agreement until after the season starts and the LTIR is available.

    Aren’t there risks for next off-season if we pursue that?I beleive Rej’s cap hit dissapears if he retires now, as he’s not yet over 35.That’s the only long term cap relief I can see that allows a Nurse longer term deal.

    Interesting wrinkles.Hope this doesn’t ruin 18-19.

    Yup, cap hit will be gone if he retires but I doubt he does that in his early 30s.

    To me, there really isn’t extra cap space available. Yes, via the crazy complicated LTIR rules, from a high level, we can go over the cap by a certain calculated amount while he’s on LTIR, however, when he’s activated, and he will be, the ability to go over the cap is gone and we haven’t accrued any cap space over the year.

    If we knew he wasn’t coming back this year, we could use the ability to go over the cap for a one-year term player but he very well could be activated early next calendar year and then we are effed on the cap.

    At the very “best”, he’s not activated until next season so we can make an acquisition but only for a one-year term.

    ——————-

    Just let it play out with a lower end acquisition such as Enstrom or Davidson.

    This kills our future injury cover (if Nurse/Klef get hurt) but it is what it is and, without any other injury, we are looking for a replacement on the 3rd pairing which is where he was going to play.

  83. JimmyV1965 says:

    I think the Sekera injury is a huge loss because Chia didn’t get cover for 2 RHD. And I don’t mean some kind of PP QB. Simply someone who can push Benning to 3 RHD if it’s needed.

    There’s still time to do it. The team needs to simply identify a decent player for that spot. If it happens, we can play Russell at 3 LHD, something he is more than capable of doing, rather than playing on the right side.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – When I was doing corporate finance we would hammer lawyers for using such technical terms and make them plain language it: then you realized they weren’t actually smarter: they just used a language and syntax they they only understood, which isnt’ business practical, but that’s an aside

    I’m a corporate lending lawyer – every word used is perfect for the documents I draft………

    To be serious, I negotiate and draft legal documents, sometimes well over 150 pages (syndicated credit agreement) for, often hundreds of millions of dollars, even billions on occasion, and the LTIR provisions hurt my head.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    A few reasonable counter-arguments about the roster (due goal/Corsi focus around here, vs. how NHL coaches utilize players) that need to be at least discussed before dismissing out of hand:

    3. With Sekera’s injury, we all know that come the season, McLellan is going to run Klefbom – Larsson and Nurse – Russell (This pair had success last year) hard and use the third pair for lesser minutes. So get yer whining out of the way. LOL.

    We all don’t know this and I don’t agree with this at all. In my mind the 2nd pairing was always going to be Nurse/Benning and it remains. If Benning fails then, yes, Russell will have to move up but that is not the starting point.

    I’m not sure where you get this Nurse/Russell had success last year:

    Without Russell, in over 1100 minutes, Nurse had a CF of 52% and a GF of 58%.

    With Russel, in over 425 minutes, Nurse’s CF fell to 48% and his GF fell to 49%.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers:
    Perhaps Sekera’s injury is an opportunity- $5.5M in new cap space.

    I’d probably rather have Faulk than Sekera. I’d also much rather have Erik Karlsson.

    Would you trade a 2019 first + Marody + Ethan Bear + 2020 2nd for Karlsson, even if it was just a single year?

    I wouldn’t trade the 2019 first for one year of Karlsson.

  87. DLite says:

    Lowetide,

    In my post I stated up front I agree with you, settling down Russell and being rocking chair are things Oilers will miss no doubt – I never said they were minor things. You didn’t address my questions about moving forward though (ie. sheltering 3rd pair and it treading water). Not happening you say?

  88. Georgexs says:

    Lowetide: As late as yesterday (Riesen to Believe) I wrote the following about Sekera:

    Andrej Sekera, 32. How close to full Rej will he be on opening night? That’s the question. He is a brilliant passer and filthy in overtime, plus he can defend against quality. On the other hand, he is now 32 and that’s a factor—especially coming back from injury. 100%.

    I’m fully aware of what Sekera is and isn’t, from my point of view he was both Russell’s straightener and rocking chair for the kids. Edmonton badly needed both, and now lack them. I’m surprised at how many posters are viewing this as a minor issue. It’s a big deal, as I stated in the original item.

    Why do you make such a strong distinction between Sekera and Russell? I can see injury in Year 3, but why does Sekera get a free pass for his Year 1? A younger, healthier Sekera didn’t straighten Fayne; he wasn’t a rocking chair for Nurse. Over their careers, Sekera and Russell have averaged about the same 5v5 TOI per game. They have about the same results. Russell’s are actually better on goals. I thought math mattered.

  89. geowal says:

    OriginalPouzar: I wouldn’t trade the 2019 first for one year of Karlsson.

    There were 7 2018 1st rounders traded last February, albeit from contenders and pretenders for mostly lesser, mostly UFA stars as the main return. I think a lot of GMs would happily include a 1st rounder, question is what else from the roster joins it.

  90. Lowetide says:

    DLite:
    Lowetide,

    In my post I stated up front I agree with you, settling down Russell and being rocking chair are things Oilers will miss no doubt – I never said they were minor things.You didn’t address my questions about moving forward though (ie. sheltering 3rd pair and it treading water).Not happening you say?

    Not all year, no. You can’t shelter the third pair because people get hurt and then your third pair is your second pair and your third pair is your No. 7 guy and a rookie from the farm. Matt Benning was “sheltered” a year ago but still played 25 percent of his 5-on-5 time against elite competition. Ethan Bear spent 29 percent against elites.

  91. OilersFuture says:

    I’m wondering if Sekera being on LTIR for most of the season will allow them to possibly sign Nurse to a long term deal.

    The Oilers currently have $4,978,834 in salary cap with 13 forwards, 6 defense & 2 goalies. They need to sign Nurse and now possibly a replacement for Sekera, hopefully Enstrom. With Sekera being hurt it might allow them to sign Nurse long term.

    Now, per Cap Friendly, the Oilers have two players penciled into their line AND waiver eligible – Puljujarvi ($925,000) & Koskinen ($1,000,000).

    Per, NHL.com – Each Club must have a roster of at least 20 players, composed of 18 skaters and two goaltenders. They can put Koskinen on waivers for a paper transaction and ‘call up’ Wells and save an additional $255,000 in order to sign an additional player. That would give them $6,150,000.

    It might allow them to sign Nurse for 5 million and a defenseman for 1 million and allow them to offer a PTO to a forward and sign them after Sekera is placed on LTIR.

  92. bendelson says:

    Fair warning all: this post is actually about hockey!

    Lots of great insight into this unfortunate Sekera situation…
    I believe the prudent move is to slot Russell in as 3LD (where he has a chance to succeed) and go out and get a serviceable 2/3 RD on a one or possibly 2yr deal. Use a future draft pick(s) to get it done.

    Not an ideal situation, but an in-house solution amounts to flushing the season IMO, which is completely unacceptable. I don’t believe there is an appropriate UFA option to fill the hole. Losing a draft pick or two is the cost of this likely career ending injury to Reggie (not including the cost of his buyout next summer). Get it done.

  93. Lowetide says:

    Georgexs: Why do you make such a strong distinction between Sekera and Russell? I can see injury in Year 3, but why does Sekera get a free pass for his Year 1? A younger, healthier Sekera didn’t straighten Fayne; he wasn’t a rocking chair for Nurse. Over their careers, Sekera and Russell have averaged about the same 5v5 TOI per game. They have about the same results. Russell’s are actually better on goals. I thought math mattered.

    Last healthy season for Sekera:

    5×5 points per 60: 0.92 (1st among regular defensemen)
    5×4 points per 60: 4.22 (2nd among regular defensemen)
    Corsi for 5×5 %: 49.1
    Corsi Rel 5×5 %: -1.2
    DFF Elite 5×5 %: 47.0
    DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: -.8 (35 percent of TOI v. elites)
    Shots on goal/percentage: 128 shots/6.3%
    Boxcars: 80, 8-27-35

    Same season for Kris Russell:

    5×5 points per 60: 0.60 (7th among regular defensemen)
    5×4 points per 60: 3.23 (one point in 18 minutes)
    Corsi for 5×5 %: 46.4
    Corsi Rel 5×5 %: -5.8
    DFF Elite 5×5 %: 47.8
    DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: -1.1 (35 percent of TOI v. elites)
    Shots on goal/percentage: 68 shots/1.5%
    Boxcars: 68, 1-12-13

    Sekera’s offense is superior, his overall possession number more handsome. Russell and Sekera are about even in DFF numbers. This is 2016-17 when these men played 836 minutes together. Last year (2017-18) Sekera was hurt.

    Corsica gives us an idea about the pair. Sekera-Russell were 45.38 Corsi for 5×5 together, and 30-18 in 5-on-5 goal differential. Expected goals 50.98.

    I would give Sekera the edge with the puck and without the puck. I understand if you disagree, as there are all kinds of metrics and we get to choose the ones that we believe in.

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    dustrock:
    Woodguy, LT and others.

    Really enjoyed Dellow drilling down on why some bottom pair D-men have good possession metrics against good competition.

    https://theathletic.com/468934/2018/08/15/dellow-how-mike-babcock-and-others-are-sheltering-defencemen-while-playing-them-against-top-opposition/

    Some good analysis on on-the-fly shift changes and the “quality” of time spent against tough competition.

    Ie. you figure Nurse and Larsson are likely playing against a fresh top line, the puck gets moved out, they change, then Russell-Benning or whoever get 10 seconds of time against the top line, but the other team recovers the Oilers’ dump in and then their top line does a shift change as well.

    So the bottom pair gets TOI against elite comp, but in no way where you’d expect anything dangerous to happen.

    Wonder if Puck IQ could then drill down to give a “Quality of Ice Time” against Elites/etc

    We will eventually have OTF results included

  95. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: There’s probably about 4 teams that have the depth to weather losing two quality D. The Oilers are not alone in this conundrum. Until the prospects bubbling under start seriously competing for playing time, this D core was always a paper thin construct that was a substantial injury or two away from disaster.

    Before this happened, I posted yesterday if they were to lose Larsson, they’d be absolutely screwed. That’s never been truer than today.

    Injuries are the biggest minefield in pro sports. Nothing will sewer a promising season faster.

    By my count there are 7. EDM was 8.

  96. leadfarmer says:

    I hear that Petry fellow may be available.

    I’ll show myself out

  97. Gerta Rauss says:

    leadfarmer:
    I hear that Petry fellow may be available.

    I’ll show myself out

    lol

    I hear a 2nd and a 4th is the market rate

  98. Wilde says:

    new post up soon

    was retreading Chace McCallum’s blog about his GAR and was reminded of this except that might interest you:

    (https://hockeyandstuff.weebly.com/chaces-blog)

    “One of the biggest puzzles in hockey analytics today is adjusting for context, and specifically QoC, which generally refers to quality of competition. I have a small adjustment for that in the model, however I don’t adjust for the more important QoC, quality of coach. This is something Dawson Sprigings noted back when he was in the public sphere on the hockey graphs podcast. He spoke about how in his WAR model, he found adjusting for quality of coach to be more important than quality of teammate.”

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal: There were 7 2018 1st rounders traded last February, albeit from contenders and pretenders for mostly lesser, mostly UFA stars as the main return. I think a lot of GMs would happily include a 1st rounder, question is what else from the roster joins it.

    First rounders from those in playoff positions and first rounders for a team where playoffs are far from a certainty (and just lost a material player) in a year where the top end of the draft is looking very very good – different situations to me.

    I’m not willing to trade a 1st rounder for one year of any player.

    With this team’s cap structure, no way, no how.

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    A longer response got eaten by the site.

    1) you misunderstand why I like RelT better. There is divergence for more than a few players and imo it’s due to usage so I prefer RelT

    2) if RelT has zero predictive power and its ~90% correlated with on/off Rels that mean on/off Rels probably have the same predicative power so why do you use them?

    3) if player A plays with Hamhuis vs the toughs in bad spots then he (player A) would play with other players in better spots vs easier comp then the RelT would be worse right? You’re not understanding what I’m trying to say and I’ll own that.

  101. geowal says:

    OriginalPouzar: First rounders from those in playoff positions and first rounders for a team where playoffs are far from a certainty (and just lost a material player) in a year where the top end of the draft is looking very very good – different situations to me.

    Yes but a full season of Erik Karlsson (replacing said material player and then some) for a full season (lessening draft position) against 2 months of a lesser uFA. I’d say those factors offset the draft position a fair bit no? If it doesn’t work out you can trade him at the deadline for…a late first rounder!
    It’s Ottawa who hesitates on that deal, not Chia. The real question is who goes with the first rounder.

  102. godot10 says:

    It is folly for pretenders to trade first round draft picks. The Oilers are a pretender. Have people forgotten the damage of the Reinhart trade already?

    On can trade first round draft picks when one is a cup Contender.

  103. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Might I just say what a refreshing and entertaining thread this has been today?

    No sniping, no name calling – just a lot of interested fans talking.

    Wow. Love it!

    Thanks everyone!

    Also agree – no trading first/second round picks until this team sees the “much ballyhooed” LT balance photo!

    And no to an unsigned Karlsson…

  104. Georgexs says:

    Lowetide: Last healthy season for Sekera:

    5×5 points per 60: 0.92 (1st among regular defensemen)
    5×4 points per 60: 4.22 (2nd among regular defensemen)
    Corsi for 5×5 %: 49.1
    Corsi Rel 5×5 %: -1.2
    DFF Elite 5×5 %: 47.0
    DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: -.8 (35 percent of TOI v. elites)
    Shots on goal/percentage: 128 shots/6.3%
    Boxcars: 80, 8-27-35

    Same season for Kris Russell:

    5×5 points per 60: 0.60 (7th among regular defensemen)
    5×4 points per 60: 3.23 (one point in 18 minutes)
    Corsi for 5×5 %: 46.4
    Corsi Rel 5×5 %: -5.8
    DFF Elite 5×5 %: 47.8
    DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: -1.1 (35 percent of TOI v. elites)
    Shots on goal/percentage: 68 shots/1.5%
    Boxcars: 68, 1-12-13

    Sekera’s offense is superior, his overall possession number more handsome. Russell and Sekera are about even in DFF numbers. This is 2016-17 when these men played 836 minutes together. Last year (2017-18) Sekera was hurt.

    Corsica gives us an idea about the pair. Sekera-Russell were 45.38 Corsi for 5×5 together, and 30-18 in 5-on-5 goal differential. Expected goals 50.98.

    I would give Sekera the edge with the puck and without the puck. I understand if you disagree, as there are all kinds of metrics and we get to choose the ones that we believe in.

    Sekera’s 16-17 was a great year, I think his second best ever. If that was the only year available, I would most certainly, hands down agree with you. But the 16-17 season doesn’t represent Sekera’s entire body of work in the NHL. It’s too flattering. What he has accomplished in the NHL is very similar to what Russell has accomplished. 20ish minutes a night (with Sekera admittedly having the edge), neither winning or losing by much relative to the team (with Russell having the edge here). Middle of the road defensemen with long careers. If Sekera has an edge because of his minutes and his usage, then Russell has a slight edge when it comes to results as measured by goals.

    You didn’t include GF% in your lists. I don’t know if I believe in any of the other stats you included when it comes to evaluating defensemen. P60 (nice!) is intriguing though.

  105. Lowetide says:

    Georgexs: Sekera’s 16-17 was a great year, I think his second best ever. If that was the only year available, I would most certainly, hands down agree with you. But the 16-17 season doesn’t represent Sekera’s entire body of work in the NHL. It’s too flattering. What he has accomplished in the NHL is very similar to what Russell has accomplished. 20ish minutes a night (with Sekera admittedly having the edge), neither winning or losing by much relative to the team (with Russell having the edge here). Middle of the road defensemen with long careers. If Sekera has an edge because of his minutes and his usage, then Russell has a slight edge when it comes to results as measured by goals.

    You didn’t include GF% in your lists. I don’t know if I believe in any of the other stats you included when it comes to evaluating defensemen. P60 (nice!) is intriguing though.

    Sekera’s 2015-16 season was spent (iirc) playing elite competition with a flat out rookie. I think that’s most of your answer on that season. I don’t use GF% except in the case of specific lines or pairings, which I did in fact list above.

  106. leadfarmer says:

    Looking at Pronmans rankings. Going to be pretty sweet when teams try to fit multiple d that don’t know how to defend on their roster. Burns Merkley and Heed on one team is going to make opposition salivate like crazy and the Sharks aren’t the only team heading that way.

  107. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    A longer response got eaten by the site.

    1) you misunderstand why I like RelT better.There is divergence for more than a few players and imo it’s due to usage so I prefer RelT

    2) if RelT has zero predictive power and its ~90% correlated with on/off Rels that mean on/off Rels probably have the same predicative power so why do you use them?

    3) ifplayer A plays with Hamhuis vs the toughs in bad spots then he (player A) would play with other players in better spots vs easier comp then the RelT would be worse right? You’re not understanding what I’m trying to say and I’ll own that.

    1) RelT tries to control for quality of teammates. I’m not sure what Manny’s methodology is. I don’t know if he’s using statistical techniques like ridge regression or if he’s doing something ad hoc. The first thing you look for when you do this using a statistical model is does having player X on the ice make a statistical difference when it comes to winning or losing after I control for teammates, opponents, and game situation. With defensemen, you find that the answer is almost always no. Did you check out that paper that VOR linked to a while back? The defensemen thing isn’t what they were getting at, but if you pull their data, you’ll see that’s how it worked out. I’ll get around to running that with more recent data at some point.

    2) You’re right about Rel GF% having 0 predictive power season to season. I’ll quote Rel GF% in the short term because I think it provides a signal to the coaching staff that someone’s not working out given their usage. I think coaches and GMs act on this information from season to season and that’s why the correlations go to zero. There’s a self-correcting mechanism in there somewhere. Rel GF% in the long term should hover close to zero for most defensemen. When I use the career number, it’s mostly a check. Guys like Lidstrom do well in the long term but the category of “guys like Lidstrom” is small. Most guys are survivors, i.e., close to 0.

    3) You’re right. I’m not understanding. Does RelT reflect player usage with respect to opponents?

  108. Scungilli Slushy says:

    It’s the unsung heroes that win Cups. What the Oilers need is a Hainsey or Stralman or Lovejoy of a few years ago. Cheaper and effective.

    Hockey (sports) is about outscoring. Is there a RD that can play (skate and pass at an acceptable level) as LT said still available?

    I don’t see Bouchard or Bear as the answer. Maybe Berglund can float because he’s played a high enough level to not get torched defensively and has the size to compliment the Snow Angel (sorry Kris)

    Russell Berglund.

    Anyone that wins a job clear should stay, I just don’t think the other B’s will be there yet for 82 defensively, which is the meat.

    That’s a lot of B’s. Hmmm, PC still stuck on Bruins 🙂

  109. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    Looking at Pronmans rankings.Going to be pretty sweet when teams try to fit multiple d that don’t know how to defend on their roster.Burns Merkley and Heed on one team is going to make opposition salivate like crazy and the Sharks aren’t the only team heading that way.

    I wonder if the Sharks move Burns at some point. His value remains high, he’s 33, his goal total fell, he has a lot of miles. It might behoove them to deal Burns to a team looking for a power-play option.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal: Yes but a full season of Erik Karlsson (replacing said material player and then some) for a full season (lessening draft position) against 2 months of a lesser uFA. I’d say those factors offset the draft position a fair bit no? If it doesn’t work out you can trade him at the deadline for…a late first rounder!
    It’s Ottawa who hesitates on that deal, not Chia. The real question is who goes with the first rounder.

    No, I would say the risk is simply way too great at this point.

    Karlsson wasn’t able to pull the Sens out of the basement last year.

    Karlsson himself could get hurt (he’s got half an ankle to start with).

    I’m not willing to trade our first rounder for 1 year of any player, even Erik Karlsson.

    I’m also one of the people that think this team is 2 years or so away from glory and in order to consistently be competitive year after year, it will need to rely on (a) a steady stream of prospects graduating to replace veterans who price themselves our of our cap structure and (b) prospects competing among themselves for injury call-ups (that is, more than one prospect that legit deserves a call-up – we need our injury replacements to be able to provide value).

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Sekera’s 2015-16 season was spent (iirc) playing elite competition with a flat out rookie. I think that’s most of your answer on that season. I don’t use GF% except in the case of specific lines or pairings, which I did in fact list above.

    I think part of that time playing elites with a rookie was on his off-side as well (and he has expressed how he does not like playing his off side).

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    It’s the unsung heroes that win Cups. What the Oilers need is a Hainsey or Stralman or Lovejoy of a few years ago. Cheaper and effective.

    Hockey (sports) is about outscoring.Is there a RD that can play (skate and pass at an acceptable level) as LT said still available?

    I don’t see Bouchard or Bear as the answer. Maybe Berglund can float because he’s played a high enough level to not get torched defensively and has the size to compliment the Snow Angel (sorry Kris)

    Russell Berglund.

    Anyone that wins a job clear should stay, I just don’t think the other B’s will be there yet for 82 defensively, which is the meat.

    That’s a lot of B’s. Hmmm, PC still stuck on Bruins

    Berglund is staying in Sweden this year.

    Not a rightie but I’ve got this feeling about Willie Lagesson, who is coming to back to North America this year – played apx 20 min/night last year – can defend but also skate and move the puck.

    Don’t imagine he’s ready in October but maybe in January (or maybe never).

  113. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Berglund is staying in Sweden this year.

    Not a rightie but I’ve got this feeling about Willie Lagesson, who is coming to back to North America this year – played apx 20 min/night last year – can defend but also skate and move the puck.

    Don’t imagine he’s ready in October but maybe in January (or maybe never).

    I didn’t recall that. Might be his opportunity knocks moment though.

  114. Melman says:

    Pardon my stupidity, but if teams need to be cap compliant on Day 1 of the season which is Oct. 3 and the Oilers don’t play until Oct. 6, a 1 day paper demotion of JP and KY shouldn’t be an issue. Trickier when Reg is ready to go in Feb. but that leaves all kinds of time to trade, etc.

  115. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Melman:
    Pardon my stupidity, but if teams need to be cap compliant on Day 1 of the season which is Oct. 3 and the Oilers don’t play until Oct. 6, a 1 day paper demotion of JP and KY shouldn’t be an issue.Trickier when Reg is ready to go in Feb. but that leaves all kinds of time to trade, etc.

    I hope they sit Reg the whole season. He’ll be awful if they bring him back mid season I predict. A full year of rehabbing and restoring muscle balance to his legs. Whether he wants it or not. If they bring him when he’s technically ready I fear it happens again, all the while providing no actual help and jeopardizing his career and possibly sticking the Oilers in a tough spot with his contract.

  116. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    Personally I think they are going to run the Pavelski and Burns cluster into the ground.

  117. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy has pointed to how PPs don’t rely on old school big shot D anymore. Point coverage is to good now, shots rarely get through as teams focus on that.

    It’s all in the paint. Klef and others can suffice. Benning can shoot. Puck movement is far more important. They have enough skill to run a good PP, they have fresh voices.

    I believe that cohesion is enough to be good enough. For now. 5v5 will define this season, enough lines and pairs sawing off to capitalize on the Connor effect.

  118. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Lowetide,

    Personally I think they are going to run the Pavelski and Burns cluster into the ground.

    So many teams have done that. As I have said a million times before much to everyone’s chagrin contracts if possible should be timed to trade players that shouldn’t be retiring on their drafting team to maximize trade value.

    Retiring drafted players means losing contender ability. I’ll add role players working for team friendly contracts would be different.

  119. leadfarmer says:

    While the Achilles’ tendon is important for hockey players in transmitting power from the legs into the feet, hockey skates aren’t that far away from a walking boot that Sekera is probably in already (hence the low frequency of Achilles’ tendon injuries during actual hockeying except for the rare laceration. Meaning that outside of a skate cut the Tendon like Karlsson or smaller cut like Seguin players are much more likely to injure during training. Now if hockey was a jumping sport then I would be worried.
    This means one thing. This is in all likelihood not a career ender for Sekera. But that means we don’t get to LTIR his cap hit the rest of the way. But with his two surgeries we are looking at a declining player with a big fat cap hit that we can’t make go away for next year or the following.

  120. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer:
    While the Achilles’ tendon is important for hockey players in transmitting power from the legs into the feet, hockey skates aren’t that far away from a walking boot that Sekera is probably in already (hence the low frequency of Achilles’ tendon injuries during actual hockeying except for the rare laceration.Meaning that outside of a skate cut the Tendon like Karlsson or smaller cut like Seguin players are much more likely to injure during training. Now if hockey was a jumping sport then I would be worried.
    This means one thing.This is in all likelihood not a career ender for Sekera.But that means we don’t get to LTIR his cap hit the rest of the way.But with his two surgeries we are looking at a declining player with a big fat cap hit that we can’t make go away for next year or the following.

    But what are the chances of missing large parts of two seasons and coming back effective? What are the chances of reinjury given his lack of training and game use on imbalances in muscles?

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I didn’t recall that. Might be his opportunity knocks moment though.

    Yes, he signed for two more years this off-season (although the contract has an out and he’s expressed his intent to come to North America next season).

    I don’t imagine his plans are going to change now.

    He’s not on loan like Persson is, Berglund doesn’t have an ELC yet.

  122. Lowetide says:

    Melman:
    Pardon my stupidity, but if teams need to be cap compliant on Day 1 of the season which is Oct. 3 and the Oilers don’t play until Oct. 6, a 1 day paper demotion of JP and KY shouldn’t be an issue.Trickier when Reg is ready to go in Feb. but that leaves all kinds of time to trade, etc.

    Koskinen could also get sent down for a day, Montoya staying and that saves $1.5 million. Yamamoto’s bonus is peanuts but JP is $2.5 million so that’s a possibility.

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I hope they sit Reg the whole season. He’ll be awful if they bring him back mid season I predict. A full year of rehabbing and restoring muscle balance to his legs. Whether he wants it or not. If they bring him when he’s technically ready I fear it happens again, all the while providing no actual help and jeopardizing his career and possibly sticking the Oilers in a tough spot with his contract.

    A team is obligated to activate a person from LTIR when they are “ready” (I don’t recall the exact wording off the top of my head). Technically, they will need to activate him at some point this year (most likely), although I’m sure teams stretch that rule all the time.

  124. Gerta Rauss says:

    Melman:
    Pardon my stupidity, but if teams need to be cap compliant on Day 1 of the season which is Oct. 3 and the Oilers don’t play until Oct. 6, a 1 day paper demotion of JP and KY shouldn’t be an issue.Trickier when Reg is ready to go in Feb. but that leaves all kinds of time to trade, etc.

    I’m pretty sure all teams need to be cap compliant by Oct 3, and they can LTIR Sekera on the last day of training camp, so they shouldn’t have to demote anyone to get compliant

    The LTIR rules are vague to say the least, and the below doc states that all of the LTIR rules aren’t even IN the CBA

    https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq

  125. leadfarmer says:

    Scungilli Slushy: But what are the chances of missing large parts of two seasons and coming back effective? What are the chances of reinjury given his lack of training and game use on imbalances in muscles?

    You very clearly did not read more than one line of what I wrote

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Koskinen could also get sent down for a day, Montoya staying and that saves $1.5 million. Yamamoto’s bonus is peanuts but JP is $2.5 million so that’s a possibility.

    Unless I am misunderstanding your post (which is probably likely), Koskinen going down and being replaced by Montoya for a day doesn’t save $1.5M.

    Koskinen would still have a cap hit of just under $1.5M while in the AHL plus Montoya’s cap hit would fully be on the roster.

    That’s the thing with the Koskinen contract – it committed an extra $1.5M to the cap for the back-up tending position.

  127. Gerta Rauss says:

    OriginalPouzar: A team is obligated to activate a person from LTIR when they are “ready” (I don’t recall the exact wording off the top of my head). Technically, they will need to activate him at some point this year (most likely), although I’m sure teams stretch that rule all the time.

    Yup

    That doc states “deemed fit to play”…so either you need Dr Nick on your medical staff or Lou Lamoriello as your GM

    Or Jeff Gillooly on speed dial

  128. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Unless I am misunderstanding your post (which is probably likely), Koskinen going down and being replaced by Montoya for a day doesn’t save $1.5M.

    Koskinen would still have a cap hit of just under $1.5M while in the AHL plus Montoya’s cap hit would fully be on the roster.

    That’s the thing with the Koskinen contract – it committed an extra $1.5M to the cap for the back-up tending position.

    Damn you’re right. Holidays are fun, but one shouldn’t do math while doing it.

  129. OilersFuture says:

    OriginalPouzar: Unless I am misunderstanding your post (which is probably likely), Koskinen going down and being replaced by Montoya for a day doesn’t save $1.5M.

    Koskinen would still have a cap hit of just under $1.5M while in the AHL plus Montoya’s cap hit would fully be on the roster.

    That’s the thing with the Koskinen contract – it committed an extra $1.5M to the cap for the back-up tending position.

    You are right. It would have to be Koskinen sent down and then Wells being ‘called up’ in the paper transaction and it would save the $255,000.

  130. jtblack says:

    bendelson:
    Fair warning all:this post is actually about hockey!

    Lots of great insight into this unfortunate Sekera situation…
    I believe the prudent move is to slot Russell in as 3LD (where he has a chance to succeed) and go out and get a serviceable 2/3 RD on a one or possibly 2yr deal.Use a future draft pick(s) to get it done.

    Not an ideal situation, but an in-house solution amounts to flushing the season IMO, which is completely unacceptable. I don’t believe there is an appropriate UFA option to fill the hole. Losing a draft pick or two is the cost of this likely career ending injury to Reggie (not including the cost of his buyout next summer).Get it done.

    +1. But not our 1st rounder. Move Russell to 3LHD amd that side is still strong Bring in Franson and have him and Benning swap at 2RHD & 3RHD.

    Praise Be

  131. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: Damn you’re right. Holidays are fun, but one shouldn’t do math while doing it.

    1) Don’t throw accelerants in the fire
    2) Wait. There is a Fire Ban
    3) Wait. You are probably in a 5 Star Hotel …. or Yacht ….. or ….

  132. Georgexs says:

    Lowetide: Sekera’s 2015-16 season was spent (iirc) playing elite competition with a flat out rookie. I think that’s most of your answer on that season. I don’t use GF% except in the case of specific lines or pairings, which I did in fact list above.

    Sekera played more with Fayne (657) than with Nurse (393) in 15-16.

    Most of my answer on that season is now Todd McLellan. McLellan decided that Fayne, a perfectly OK 4-5, didn’t belong in the NHL, which solved no problem but created others. He was also the one who decided to play the flat out rookie in the top pair. He’s a gambler. That’s why he blends lines. Lucky 7’s… he can just feel it.

    The HC is squirrelly. Probably feeling real squirrelly right now. Fortunately, he’s low stacked and out of scapegoats.

    You might be using Corsi because of that Corsi predicts goals thing from way back. Times, they are a-changing, LT. You’re steering your readers further off course.

  133. jtblack says:

    ONDREJ KASE 3YR DEAL @ $2.6 AAV is excellent Value

    Pay attention Pete

  134. Henry says:

    OriginalPouzar: I wouldn’t trade the 2019 first for one year of Karlsson.

    A gambler with Connor Mcdavid probably would.

  135. Lowetide says:

    Georgexs:
    You might be using Corsi because of that Corsi predicts goals thing from way back. Times, they are a-changing, LT. You’re steering your readers further off course.

    I can’t hear you because I’m playing podcasts from the flat-earth convention!

  136. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: I can’t hear you because I’m playing podcasts from the flat-earth convention!

    Good Laugh!

  137. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: Koskinen could also get sent down for a day, Montoya staying and that saves $1.5 million. Yamamoto’s bonus is peanuts but JP is $2.5 million so that’s a possibility.

    My understanding is to maximize LTIR space ( I could be wrong), one wants to be as close to the cap as possible with minimal bonus dollars. so Puljujarvi will be the candidate to not be on the day 1 roster.

  138. Georgexs says:

    Lowetide: I can’t hear you because I’m playing podcasts from the flat-earth convention!

    I feel we’re in this together somehow so I’m just going to say it.

    The earth isn’t flat.

  139. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: A team is obligated to activate a person from LTIR when they are “ready” (I don’t recall the exact wording off the top of my head). Technically, they will need to activate him at some point this year (most likely), although I’m sure teams stretch that rule all the time.

    But he will be like a deadline acquisition then. If they manage the cap in season, he should be able to be added back without much trouble.

  140. Pescador says:

    Gerta Rauss: Yup

    That doc states “deemed fit to play”…so either you need Dr Nick on your medical

    https://youtu.be/3wrs6VTBU3I

  141. Georgexs says:

    The only sustained success Sekera has had since he’s been on the roster is with Russell.

    Why is Sekera super-duper elite and Russell the crazy uncle you hide in the bottom pair until he just somehow sorta goes away?

  142. jtblack says:

    Georgexs: I feel we’re in this together somehow so I’m just going to say it.

    The earth isn’t flat.

    Hey Everybody “We’ve Landed on the Moon!” (circa Dumb & Dumber)

  143. Lowetide says:

    jtblack: Hey Everybody “We’ve Landed on the Moon!” (circa Dumb & Dumber)

    “What are you going to call these….Kraft slices? “

  144. VOR says:

    Many years ago when I wrote my P.Phys exam there was a bonus question.

    “Prove the world isn’t flat.”

    Anybody want to take a shot?

  145. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: But he will be like a deadline acquisition then.If they manage the cap in season, he should be able to be added back without much trouble.

    but how does that work?

    They are over the cap (permitted by the LTIR cushion formula) so they aren’t accruing any cap room and, when Sekera comes off LTIR, they lose the ability to go over and now are over the cap, no?

  146. BONE207 says:

    VOR:
    Many years ago when I wrote my P.Phys exam there was a bonus question.

    “Prove the world isn’t flat.”

    Anybody want to take a shot?

    Sure VOR…If it was flat, I’d be able to see Winnipeg (on a clearer day than today)

  147. VOR says:

    Here are some possible answers with no math involved.

    https://www.popsci.com/10-ways-you-can-prove-earth-is-round#page-16

  148. Bank Shot says:

    VOR:
    Many years ago when I wrote my P.Phys exam there was a bonus question.

    “Prove the world isn’t flat.”

    Anybody want to take a shot?

    Book a series of one way flights until you get back to where you came from.

  149. Glovjuice says:

    VOR:
    Many years ago when I wrote my P.Phys exam there was a bonus question.

    “Prove the world isn’t flat.”

    Anybody want to take a shot?

    Sun rise and sun set

  150. VOR says:

    BONE207: Sure VOR…If it was flat, I’d be able to see Winnipeg (on a clearer day than today)

    Want to hear a totally useless piece of trivia. If you are 6 feet tall and standing on the prairies of Manitoba you can see 3 miles on a clear, cool day (temperature actually matters). But if you were to climb Mount Everest you could see 230 miles on a clear, cool day. Interestingly, because it is very often clear and really frigging cold a six foot tall man can see 200 hundred miles in Antarctica.

    So why does cold weather increase how far we can see?

    In cold weather atmospheric refraction increases.

  151. HT Joe says:

    VOR:
    Many years ago when I wrote my P.Phys exam there was a bonus question.

    “Prove the world isn’t flat.”

    Anybody want to take a shot?

    Something, something, lunar eclipses?

    https://imgur.com/gallery/GMLL5

  152. VOR says:

    BONE207: Sure VOR…If it was flat, I’d be able to see Winnipeg (on a clearer day than today)

    That is correct.

  153. VOR says:

    Bank Shot: Book a series of one way flights until you get back to where you came from.

    Absolutely.

  154. BONE207 says:

    VOR: Want to hear a totally useless piece of trivia. If you are 6 feet tall and standing on the prairies of Manitoba you can see 3 miles on a clear, cool day (temperature actually matters). But if you were to climb Mount Everest you could see 230 miles on a clear, cool day. Interestingly, because it is very often clear and really frigging cold a six foot tall man can see 200 hundred miles in Antarctica.

    So why does cold weather increase how far we can see?

    In cold weather atmospheric refraction increases.

    Why did I think that due to the curvature of the earth, that the maximum you could see would be 25miles till the horizon? 200 miles in Antarctica is 200 miles of nothing…unless you’re a penguin.

  155. VOR says:

    Glovjuice: Sun rise and sun set

    Yes.

  156. VOR says:

    HT Joe: Something, something, lunar eclipses?

    https://imgur.com/gallery/GMLL5

    Absolutely. There is a great graphic in the article I linked to that explains it beautifully.

  157. unca miltie says:

    signed up today for the athletic cross country tour stop in Edmonton. looking forward to an interesting evening. Hope to meet you again, LT and hope other long time contributors to this site attend as well,

  158. VOR says:

    BONE207: Why did I think that due to the curvature of the earth, that the maximum you could see would be 25miles till the horizon? 200 miles in Antarctica is 200 miles of nothing…unless you’re a penguin.

    There are a series of formulas that relate the curvature of the Earth, the atmospheric refraction index, and the height you are observing from to the distance you can see. Neat math.

  159. VOR says:

    To get a perfect score you had to come up with twenty ways to prove it.

    The thing is it doesn’t matter how many explanations you come up with the flat earth fanatics will continue to think the Earth is flat.

    That is what stuck in my head all these years, and through many arguments I have had on the subject.

    Every time I hold on to an old timey idea I ask myself, am I now one of them, the flat earthers?

  160. VOR says:

    BONE207: Why did I think that due to the curvature of the earth, that the maximum you could see would be 25miles till the horizon? 200 miles in Antarctica is 200 miles of nothing…unless you’re a penguin.

    Apparently the wait for supply ships can be agonizing. You see them from so much further away and the ice means they are are just crawling. So you can see them coming for weeks.

  161. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: but how does that work?

    They are over the cap (permitted by the LTIR cushion formula) so they aren’t accruing any cap room and, when Sekera comes off LTIR, they lose the ability to go over and now are over the cap, no?

    Suppose the cap is $80 million. Suppose after Sekera is put on LTIR the Oilers cap hit $78 million dollars (after day 1 paper transactions). Suppose Sekera comes back 2/3rds of the way through the season. He will then be owed less than $2 million dollars the rest of the way. $78 +$1.8 million < $80 million (+ LTIR cap relief of about $3.7 million dollars).

    It is just like teams acquiring a really expensive player at the deadline. What matters is how much you have actually spent on salaries at that point, and the remainder one has to pay the player acquired. i.e. one can be over the cap on a daily basis if one has saved up cap space by being under on a daily basis for an extended period during the regulars season.

    There are really 4 caps periods. The off season. The first day of the season. The last day of the regular season. And the playoffs. One actually only has to be under the cap on the first day of the NHL season (the sum of the AAV hits of the day one roster) and the last day of the regular season (the total of the actual salaries one has paid out over the regular season). Teams acquiring expensive players at the deadline are typically over the cap on a daily basis in the playoffs.

  162. Lowetide says:

    BONE207: Why did I think that due to the curvature of the earth, that the maximum you could see would be 25miles till the horizon? 200 miles in Antarctica is 200 miles of nothing…unless you’re a penguin.

    Man, you’d never be able to do anything out of your wife’s sight. Think about that!

  163. VOR says:

    Total change of pace. This paper is all about the biomechanics of ice hockey skating.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4431820/

  164. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Dellow with a killer piece on sheltering Dmen today: https://theathletic.com/468934/2018/08/15/dellow-how-mike-babcock-and-others-are-sheltering-defencemen-while-playing-them-against-top-opposition/?redirected=1

    – synopsis: if a coach doesn’t trust a defenseman to play big minutes, he doesn’t trust him to play big minutes against the other team’s better forwards

    – almost all of the sheltered guys are low TOI players

    – also, are the shift lengths the same for top six and bottom six?

    – It doesn’t look like it; wouldn’t that affect his main point?

  165. rickithebear says:

    My dad had many slides from churchill.
    – Me in a toddler seal skin suit.
    -toddlers “helping” drag whales on shore
    – my dad a lot of slides of the classic parties.
    – they were on parrallel with the Romanian Gypsy Wakes.
    – a lot of themes.
    They were all on Pan am contracts.
    Got to fly 4 – 5 times anywhere Pan AM flew in the world.
    Had 8-10 weeks per year.

    Saw one heck of multi culture party, Clothes, booze, articles were a mix of all.
    “What theme was that”
    “Bring, wear the favourites from holiday trips.”
    “What was the reason (for the party)?”
    “Landing on the moon.”

    What the do you say.
    Dad laughed his joyful laugh.
    I looked at him in awe and said nothing.

    I have not thought of that in years.

    Thanks JT Black.
    I called my 80 year old dad last week.
    His wife answered.
    “Roy, Richard, your son is calling.”
    I needed that.
    I have not had this warm joy in you chest feeling about my dad in a couple years.

    How did I not see that scene.
    Considering how many times I have watched that movie.

  166. rickithebear says:

    By traditional structure positioning (3F-2D-1G) and zone time Off dmen are not Dmen.
    They are rovers (3f-1R-1D-1G) or forwards (4f-1D-1G) abandoning def of the High danger area (homeplate) were shots go in 5 times more than perimeter shots.
    We often see opp outnumbering teams in there DZ HD (homeplate) area.
    Often a direct result of Off dmen creating a 1-1 Def structure instead of a 2-1 Def triangle.
    My kids and I call “were is Waldo”

    I was recently told by WHL scouts that the view of Rover not Off Dman is being accepted.
    But they are not ready to say they are forwards.

    Part of my Cup Core Theory is 3+ Top 60 HD Dmen.

    Sekera – Russell was A 2nd comp anchor pair in 16-17 run.
    They were 1.45 evga60 in reg season.

    Gravel is a top 20 2nd comp HD dman out of the LAK dman factory.
    Who had Crohns briefly derail his career.
    He showed he had same form in the limited play since treatment.

    We have potentially 3 top top 60 HD dmen:
    Top 10 1st comp Larsson;
    Top 20 2nd comp history in Gravel;
    Top 60 2/3rd comp in Benning.

    Eakins was a huge fan of down low and perimeter pressure.
    That is a (1-1-1) Def aproach.
    Which creates natural outmanned play in front of net.
    Talbot was subjected to same crap 1-1-1 by Tmac.
    That Dubnyk had to face under Eakins.
    Almost ruined Dubnyks career.
    Teams continue to run with rovers like Karlsson Giordano.

    Tmac abandoned traditional def triangle structure (2D-1G) for an Eakins like perimeter press from our 2 main rovers Nurse and Klefbom.

    There are few HD dmen whos past elite strength can get top HD results while covering for rovers in a (1-1-1) Def system.
    Guys like
    Chara,
    Larsson,
    Orpik,
    Methot,
    Manson,
    Alzner,
    Mcnabb.

    The addition of Gulutzan
    and
    HD dman whisperer Yawney
    are good signs we will go back to the HD Even system.
    Avoiding the pressure sys we’re 71% of the GA increase in 17-18 came from.

    Nurse – Larsson 1.97 evga/60;

    Russell – Gravel
    Russell the #1 0% corsi dman in the game
    Has a sub 1.50 evga60 history with top 20 2nd comp d.

    Klefbom – Benning 2.51

    But hoping Yawney Coaches him up.

    Dmen out there.
    Martin (37) 6’1” 200 was one of the D who could get HD results in (1-1-1) in Pit and facing 2nd comp first 2 yr with rove burns 2.12 evga60
    Can he still play?
    17-18 w/ burns 183 min 1.64 evga60

    Sbisa (27) 6’2” 209lb product of limited training under Yawney,
    was one of the 9 top 60 HD dmen VGK took in Exp draft.
    With
    Schmidt 2.13
    Engelland 3.54
    Tanev 1.92
    Tryamkin 2.29
    Hamhuis 1.23
    Hutton 2.16
    A 3rd comp with Benning?

    Emelin 6’2” 218lb
    With
    P.k. Subban 1.88
    Y. Weber o.81
    S. Weber 1.55
    Markov 1.75
    Petry 2.45
    Beaulieau 2.92
    Gilbert 1.48
    He shows clear signs of 1st comp HD ability.
    Which we really really need.
    2nd comp with
    Career rovers sub 1.90
    His 3rd comp with
    top 60-70:HD is sub 1.00
    With career 3.00 rovers 1.48

    We run (2-1) sys with
    Top 10 HD goalie Talbot
    And
    2 potential top 20 HD pairs in our top 4.

    But guys that can generate sub 2.35 against the highest comp.
    Larson top 5 1st comp HD that can cover 1-1-1.
    Russell 0% corsi d. Paired with viable HD dman. 1st/2nd/3rd Yes
    Gravel top 20 2nd comp HD history when healthy
    Benning Top 60 2nd/3rd comp
    ——————————
    Nurse fringe top 60 in 2-1 sys
    Not good as a rover.
    Klefbom yeah!
    Maybe Yawney can coach him up.
    He showed a HD spark with Fayne.
    Brought that up at the time.
    Recently stated need to look at healthy Klefbom with Larsson.

    Elite HD game % by pair.
    Need to ad that back to HD value.
    Part of elite base repeat ability.

    Job of gm
    Kind of want best combinations of 3 – EVTOI Pr
    (XX:XX * evga60)/48 min

    Get a shooting dman with SH% in the top 120 fwd rate
    Give him top 5 dman PPTOI 3:50 – 4:30

    Kind of want best combination of PK skaters.

    Even
    xxx – Larsson
    Russell – Gravel
    xxx – Benning

    Bouchard we need to seperate his PP shots in to
    Shots
    And
    Slap pass

    PK dmen
    Davidson #8
    Martin #10
    Sekera #47
    Sbisa #53
    Nurse #67
    Larsson #75
    Emelin #82

    Oiler Fan bear: Go Oilers!

  167. rickithebear says:

    Georgexs:
    The only sustained success Sekera has had since he’s been on the roster is with Russell.

    Why is Sekera super-duper elite and Russell the crazy uncle you hide in the bottom pair until he just somehow sorta goes away?

    If go back on Sekera and look at healthy 2nd comp results in Buffalo, LAK in under HD sys Coaches.
    Top 15-20 HD results repeat.

    I looked at that.

  168. Mr. D. says:

    I think Davidson will return. I see him in our neighborhood.

  169. London Jon says:

    I’d rather our third pair today was Russell-Gryba than Gravel-Russell

  170. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Suppose the cap is $80 million.Suppose after Sekera is put on LTIR the Oilers cap hit $78 million dollars (after day 1 paper transactions).Suppose Sekera comes back 2/3rds of the way through the season.He will then be owed less than $2 million dollars the rest of the way.$78 +$1.8 million < $80 million (+ LTIR cap relief of about $3.7 million dollars).

    It is just like teams acquiring a really expensive player at the deadline.What matters is how much you have actually spent on salaries at that point, and the remainder one has to pay the player acquired.i.e. one can be over the cap on a daily basis if one has saved up cap space by being under on a daily basis for an extended period during the regulars season.

    There are really 4 caps periods.The off season.The first day of the season.The last day of the regular season. And the playoffs.One actually only has to be under the cap on the first day of the NHL season (the sum of the AAV hits of the day one roster)and the last day of the regular season (the total of the actual salaries one has paid out over the regular season).Teams acquiring expensive players at the deadline are typically over the cap on a daily basis in the playoffs.

    Thanks, I’m still confused though (and probably making myself look stupid). My understanding is that the LTIR relief doesn’t forgive Sekera’s cap hit while on LTIR but works to allow the Oilers to go over the cap, by a certain amount based on a formula, while he’s on LTIR.

    So, in your example, are they acutaly at $78M?

    Lets say we sign Nurse for an amount that takes us to $78M with an upper cap limit of $80M for round numbers so we have $2M of cap space. We then sign Enstrom for $2.5M which puts us over the cap at $80.5M – we proceed to send down Puljujarvi to be cap compliant on day 1 and then bring him back up and place Sekera on LTIR.

    We now have an $80.5M cap hit but its OK to be over due to Sekera and his LTIR.

    When Sekera comes off 2/3 of the way through the season, I understand he’s less than $2M for the rest of the year but the team was over the cap all year and accumulating any cap space buffer.

    I’m sure I”m missing something here.

  171. OriginalPouzar says:

    London Jon:
    I’d rather our third pair today was Russell-Gryba than Gravel-Russell

    From accounts, Gravel is more mobile and a better skater and puck mover than Gryba – big as well but not the same type of physical d-man. From accounts, he was establishing himself as an every day d-man in LA before he got sick.

    I think we might be discounting Gravel a bit as a group (although I’ve heard from an acquaintance that lives in S. California, that knows his hockey, that he’ll look like a solid 5D for stretches but then a 9D for stretches – consistency is the issue).

  172. London Jon says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I had two reasons for saying that:

    1) I’m assuming Russell would be slightly more effective on his strong side and you get a balanced pairing with big Eric on the right (even if he doesn’t move the puck well). Ditto Franson but I don’t like the look of a Russell-Franson pair.

    2) Gryba is a known quantity. I think he plays at a 7D level and he gives you that level every night. I’m also v nervous about Gravel. You don’t get over Crohn’s and put it behind you. My understanding is it very slowly gets worse and some people have episodes where it takes a sharp, permanent step downwards.

    I felt ok with Gravel at 7 and Lowe at 8, but if Gravel is at 6 and he goes down then you have Lowe at 6 and Bear or Stanton at 7. I think Lowe could be ok on the third pair but Stanton wouldn’t be and Bear would have needed to improve an awful lot over the summer to not get caved again there.

    I would bring Davidson in ASAP and then work on a better option for the right side with a bit of breathing room

  173. London Jon says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    We are also paying Gryba NOT to be our 6 or 7 or 8D!!

  174. Professor Q says:

    BONE207: Why did I think that due to the curvature of the earth, that the maximum you could see would be 25miles till the horizon? 200 miles in Antarctica is 200 miles of nothing…unless you’re a penguin.

    It’s going to be a vastly different experience closer to the poles than the Equator. Different curve degrees and proximity from all sides.

    You could use the Moon and shadows, too, in your argument. Much cheaper than flying around the Earth! Sticks and shadows, as well, similar to Eratosthenes. So many different ways to do it. Even satellite imagery should do it, but I’m guessing said “skeptics” would claim tomfoolery…

    Ironically, one of the founders of the modern Flat Earth theories a staunch believer in the rotating and rounded Earth, and science. He had even proposed an idea for the entire world to collect energy and travel the world by using wind (this was in the 1800s). A bit of misunderstanding, but an interesting beginning nonetheless. At least from one of the sources I checked (and can’t find easily again…).

    Regardless, the belief in a flat Earth is actually fairly recent, with suspect origins. It is misguided Medievalism to pin it on the Middle Ages (which was also an idea bourne out of the Age of Superiority and Anti-Establishment that was the 1800s), which were not at all dark and in fact provided a lot of science and technology among other stuff to the modern world; it was a 1000 year period, for McDavid’s Skates!

    Some believed it, others were scientists gambling with each other on who could prove or convince people whichever hypothesis, some do it for the memes and trolling (think followers of the Flying Spaghetti Monster), while others get sucked right in, and most conspiracy theorists believe in it because it’s almost like an addiction to *overextend* unhealthy skepticism.

    If you’re overly skeptical, or not skeptical enough, you ironically are susceptible to being led to many unfounded ideas to help prop up your disbelief or naïveté (an idea from one of my University friends who is an instructor and intrigued in why people follow conspiracy theories).

  175. OriginalPouzar says:

    London Jon:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I had two reasons for saying that:

    1) I’m assuming Russell would be slightly more effective on his strong side and you get a balanced pairing with big Eric on the right (even if he doesn’t move the puck well). Ditto Franson but I don’t like the look of a Russell-Franson pair.

    2) Gryba is a known quantity. I think he plays at a 7D level and he gives you that level every night. I’m also v nervous about Gravel. You don’t get over Crohn’s and put it behind you. My understanding is it very slowly gets worse and some people have episodes where it takes a sharp, permanent step downwards.

    I felt ok with Gravel at 7 and Lowe at 8, but if Gravel is at 6 and he goes down then you have Lowe at 6 and Bear or Stanton at 7. I think Lowe could be ok on the third pair but Stanton wouldn’t be and Bear would have needed to improve an awful lot over the summer to not get caved again there.

    I would bring Davidson in ASAP and then work on a better option for the right side with a bit of breathing room

    I agree with respect to Russell and the left side versus the right side. I’ve been adamant that Russell is simply not good enough to play 2RD (where he has played ALOT over the last few years) although I do feel more comfortable with him on the right side on the 3rd pairing (although my comfort level with that is down without Sekera there as his partner.

    I don’t disagree with Gravel although I am assuming health – could be wrong on that assumption.

    I’d be very surprised if they don’t bring in another d-man to battle with Gravel for 6/7 – Davidson could very well be that guy although I’d prefer Enstrom as, subject to health, he is not competing with Gravel for 6/7 but he is ahead of him (and maybe even Russell) and has the ability to play 2nd pairing if healthy.

    I also don’t disagree on Gryba – I think I liked him more than most. The thing I noticed with Eric over the last couple of years is, after coming off a stint in the press box, he would be pretty effective and solid for a couple of games but then his play would drop off (getting beat, PIMs, etc.) after more than a couple of games in a row – hence why he could never hold down a spot as an every day 3rd pairing guy.

  176. London Jon says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Agree with all of that.

    Gravel will know all about managing his Crohn’s by now, poor guy, and hopefully he has developed at least a little overall as a player from 2016/2017 as well.

    If so, and with one of Enstrom, Davy, Franson etc, we might just be fine and, although I don’t think I really understand the cap implications, we might even have the headroom to sign nurse long-term or bring in another decent winger. But that sounds too good to be true…

  177. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Is Adam McQuaid done? Always liked him, and he’s a righty. Would Boston trade with Chia?

    Russel-McQuaid 3rd pairing (assuming Adam’s still ok), is decent

  178. frjohnk says:

    Not really talked about here, but with the new Oiler coaches and the verbal about playing faster adn quicker transitions up to the forwards, I am wondering how this will affect Russell. And when I say affect, I mean, I believe he could be a more productive player for us.

    One of the stats that Sportloqiq tracks is “zone exits”. Russell is near the top of the list of getting the puck out here. The problem is that it is usually not with possession, as he is below average in this regard. I think the issue here is that he would rather default to resetting or a D to D pass (instead of making a quick play to a forward )which would allow the opposition time to set up defensively. So it would either be a chip up the boards or try and pass to a guy that was already covered.

    I believe this is one of the reasons why the exits with the puck % are so low with Russell.

    Now the above could be a coaching thing but by eye it did not seem like the reset or D to D passes happened as much with them and the other Oiler Dmen had league average or better zone exits with possession.

    I think a change in the way the D move the puck will help our forwards and I believe it will make Russell a better player on the backend for us

  179. OriginalPouzar says:

    I remain of the opinion that the team was not coached to to D to D or to reset as the primary option but to do so if the primary option of moving the puck up the ice wasn’t there – keep possession rather than risk a turnover going up the ice with a low risk play.

    Unfortunately, with injuries to Klefbom, Larsson and Sekera, the ability to move the puck up the ice wasn’t there and the d-men often went with the secondary and tertiary options (D to D and reset) cratering the transition game.

    A healthy Klefbom and healthier Larsson should help. I used to add a healthier Sekera to that statement but that is no longer available.

    Russell on his left side (if that is where he plays) will help as he’s proven to be a much more effective transitioner of the puck on his natural side – not great but not as bad as when he’s on his backhand to center ice.

    Others have commented that part of the issue was also the forwards blowing the zone or remaining too high – not sure if that was coaching or the players cheating.

  180. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs: – synopsis: if a coach doesn’t trust a defenseman to play big minutes, he doesn’t trust him to play big minutes against the other team’s better forwards

    – almost all of the sheltered guys are low TOI players

    – also, are the shift lengths the same for top six and bottom six?

    – It doesn’t look like it; wouldn’t that affect his main point?

    Yet a large part of the fancy stats community has those sheltered 3rd pairing Dmen as among the best in the NHL because of their results since they don’t think they need to account for much in the way of context.

  181. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    1) RelT tries to control for quality of teammates. I’m not sure what Manny’s methodology is. I don’t know if he’s using statistical techniques like ridge regression or if he’s doing something ad hoc. The first thing you look for when you do this using a statistical model is does having player X on the ice make a statistical difference when it comes to winning or losing after I control for teammates, opponents, and game situation. With defensemen, you find that the answer is almost always no. Did you check out that paper that VOR linked to a while back? The defensemen thing isn’t what they were getting at, but if you pull their data, you’ll see that’s how it worked out. I’ll get around to running that with more recent data at some point.

    Its my understanding that RelT is total of the WOWY. So its not really controlling for team mate, but more showing overall effect on team mate.

    Also,

    With Rel’s you need to make sure if its On/Off for all games (includes off results in games the player did not play) or just On/Off for games the player actually played in. I think (but am not sure) that Manny’s is all games regardless of whether or not the player played and that changes the results.

    Also,

    Its my belief that the coaching system and overall Dmen quality and goalie create a “base-line” GF% (or more specifically GA/60) for the team as they are the most responsible for getting the puck back and then going back up ice.

    Look at McDavid and the Oilers for example.

    McDavid’s GF%
    16/17 62.1%
    17/18 57.1%

    So McDavid was 5% worse right?

    Well, no. Here are his Rels

    McDavid Rel GF%
    16/17 13.2
    17/18 16.0

    So McDavid out performed the team when he was off by 3% more last year, yet his overall GF% was down 5%.

    Why?

    Its my belief that the Dcorps ability (severely hampered by injuries), coaching and goalie brought down the overall GF% and even though McDavid was better in 17/18 than 16/17 he shows up worse.

    So when you say “The first thing you look for when you do this using a statistical model is does having player X on the ice make a statistical difference when it comes to winning or losing after I control for teammates, opponents, and game situation. With defensemen, you find that the answer is almost always no.”

    I would say “I don’t think you are measuring the right thing to get the effect that good Dmen have on the team”

    Dmen play with every forward line so their individual Rels are limited by this

    Where its best (imo) to evaluate Dmen is to look at their individual effect on each center on a team and not the overall effect

    I did something like that here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2017/02/a-look-at-how-oilers-d-pairs-have-done.html


    2) You’re right about Rel GF% having 0 predictive power season to season. I’ll quote Rel GF% in the short term because I think it provides a signal to the coaching staff that someone’s not working out given their usage. I think coaches and GMs act on this information from season to season and that’s why the correlations go to zero. There’s a self-correcting mechanism in there somewhere. Rel GF% in the long term should hover close to zero for most defensemen. When I use the career number, it’s mostly a check. Guys like Lidstrom do well in the long term but the category of “guys like Lidstrom” is small. Most guys are survivors, i.e., close to 0.

    I’m think I agree with this, but am not sure yet.

    It dovetails with my theory that “Dcorps is a tide that raises or lowers all boats as they play with all lines”


    3) You’re right. I’m not understanding. Does RelT reflect player usage with respect to opponents?

    Its the total of the WOWY. So you take this and then start adding usage with respect to opponents.

  182. deardylan says:

    ArmchairGM: ARMCHAIR

    Thanks again for reaching out Armchair GM. Yeah business consulting sounds good. Any ideas? My email is deardylan at gmail dot com. Lets connect.

  183. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: because of their results since they don’t think they need to account for much in the way of context.

    Do you have a link to examples of which guys are using this approach, where?

    Because this thing goes both ways between Dellow and other guys, and, someone’s gotta be wrong and where they’re wrong it’s pretty big.

    I’m trying to figure out which way it goes…

  184. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: Do you have a link to examples of which guys are using this approach, where?

    Because this thing goes both ways between Dellow and other guys, and, someone’s gotta be wrong and where they’re wrong it’s pretty big.

    I’m trying to figure out which way it goes…

    Read Steve Burtch’s twitter timeline for the last 6 years

  185. Kris11 says:

    The thing to do would be trade Lucic and a mountain of sweetener (cap relief, draft picks, sadly) for whatever D you can get (understanding that the D will be overpaid).

    The thing not to do (that Chia might very well do) is to trade RNH for a D.

  186. Kris11 says:

    Dear Denis Grebeshkov,

    Could you turn into want we hoped you would be and sign with the Oilers.

    Signed,
    Wishful Thinking

  187. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Read Steve Burtch’s twitter timeline for the last 6 years

    LMAO

    I deserved that for answer-monkeying

  188. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: LMAO

    I deserved that for answer-monkeying

    🙂

  189. drglen says:

    It’s a chance to develop the young players and people are interested in Bear and Bouchard. They should bring in Davidson because he can play, but also doesn’t mind sitting out… he knows his role… while you work in the young guys. Hockey has become so uninteresting really, let the young guys inject some life and interest in the games. I don’t think Sekera was going to be effective anyways.

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