Training Camp 2013, Training Camp 2018

We’re just about set (PTO’s still to come, maybe a surprise appearance from Joel Persson) when it comes to the Oilers training camp roster, and we’re one “Riesen to Believe” down with two more to go. Andrej Sekera’s injury proves that, no matter how much we think we know, there’s always a wrinkle or a catastrophe around the corner. How did things shake out in 2013 fall?

THE ATHLETIC!

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LOWETIDE 2013 TRAINING CAMP “CERTAIN OILERS” (18)

  • Goalies (2) Devan Dubnyk and Jason LaBarbera
  • Defensemen (5) Jeff Petry and Ladislav Smid, Justin Schultz and Andrew Ference, Nick Schultz
  • Centermen (3) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (inj), Sam Gagner, Boyd Gordon
  • Left Wing (4) Taylor Hall, David Perron, Jesse Joensuu, Ryan Smyth
  • Right Wing (4) Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov, Ales Hemsky, Ryan Jones

  • Dubnyk and LaBarbera made the opening night roster, but this was Dallas Eakins’ first year as head coach and the Edmonton goalies had a tougher winter than the Donner party.
  • In the end, six men played net for the Oilers, three of whom (Dubnyk, Ilya Bryzgalov and Ben Scrivens) played over 20 games.
  • All five defencemen and 11 forwards listed in the ‘lock’ category made the team, although several (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Sam Gagner, Ryan Jones) didn’t make opening night due to injury.
  • Ales Hemsky, Nick Schultz, Ladislav Smid, plus both goalies would not finish the season with Edmonton.

LOWETIDE 2013 TRAINING CAMP “UNCERTAIN OILERS” (15)

  • Goalies (none)
  • Defensemen (7): Anton Belov, Denis Grebeshkov, Corey Potter, Phil Larsen, Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin, Taylor Fedun
  • Center (4): Anton Lander, Mark Arcobello, Will Acton, Andrew Miller
  • Left Wing (3): Linus Omark, Ryan Hamilton, Ben Eager
  • Right Wing (1): Mike Brown

  • Belov made the team and played opening night, Grebeshkov was a healthy scratch.
  • All of the defensemen who didn’t make the opening lineup ended up playing at least one game with the Oilers during the year.
  • Mark Arcobello and Will Acton won the opening night jobs.
  • Lander played 27 games over the season.
  • Ben Eager was a scratch opening night, played seven games and then got released. Luke Gazdic, claimed on waivers just days before, made the opening night lineup.
  • Omark and Hamilton played, but not much.
  • Brown made the team, played opening night and was traded eight games into the season to San Jose.
  • Here is the opening night roster.
  • We had a couple over for dinner that night, meal, some drinks and cards. I ruined it. Absolute fool. I was so damned angry. Still am. The Leafs game in Toronto not long after might have been the point where I stepped away a little.

CERTAIN OILERS AUGUST 16, 2018

  • Andrej Sekera no longer on the list gives the defense a ‘wide open’ feel now. We could see as many as eight blue flying to Cologne. The five men listed here will be counted on in a big way.
  • All 12 forwards listed are flat out locks, unless one of them gets traded for a defenseman.

UNCERTAIN OILERS AUGUST 16, 2018

  • The Sekera injury brings all five defensemen listed further into play, not certain who benefits more from yesterday’s news.
  • Pontus Aberg (as we discussed yesterday) is close to a lock, I’m holding him back based only on Yamamoto winning a job and Drake Caggiula being an absolute lock.

DISTANT BELLS, AUGUST 16

  • Sekera is the first name off the list this year.
  • I don’t think Jones, Lagesson or Persson are more likely to make this roster today than yesterday. All three could see action this season (Persson the longest shot, obviously) but it would be a shock to see them opening night.

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189 Responses to "Training Camp 2013, Training Camp 2018"

  1. Jaxon says:

    I’m still not sure Rattie is a lock over Aberg or Yamamoto or even Marody. He has a training camp and 8 pre-season games to screw this up and his track record says he is very capable of doing just that. If Caggiula wasn’t getting overpaid so much I would have put him on the uncertain list, but that contract shows Chia and TMac share some faith in him. I think Yamamoto starts in the AHL just because he can without being exposed and Bouchard can play the first 9 games similar to the situation Yamamoto benefitted from last year which had Puljujarvi starting in the AHL.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Is there a realistic chance of Persson coming over?

    I don’t even think he was coming over for camp but slated to play the year on loan to Vaxjo.

    I assume his $832K salary if playing for the Oilers would be more than he makes in Sweden, however, given this is an ELC its a two-way contract so he would make much less if assigned to the AHL – although I gather we’d “re-loan” him to Vaxjo if he doesn’t make the team.

    I don’t see the Sekera injury getting him flying across the Atlantic.

    As an aside, he’s got performance bonus potential up to $850K – if he comes over, earns a spot and plays well, it could be quite lucrative.

    I still wonder what his RFA contract might look like if he has another good season in Sweden – performance bonuses won’t be an option and I think the contract may not be that cheap.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    I was sitting on a beautiful patio at my hotel on Mission Beach in San Diego enjoying gorgeous weather when the news of Gagner’s broken jaw broke and I remember being devastated by it thinking it was going to have a very material effect on the team’s roster and line deployment.

    As an aside, John Cena was at the table beside – he’s a large man.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ahhh, Will Acton – good times – what a stud……

  5. geowal says:

    I don’t want to hate on the guy, but it’s hard to get excited when I see “Drake Caggiula” and “Absolute Lock” in the same sentence.

  6. Connoreah says:

    Stauffer on ON yesterday seemed pretty comfortable with the Sekera injury (rightly or wrongly), and spoke a lot about the possibility of a trade for Faulk in early October. As for price, he said “we’re not talking about Nuge here.”

    Recognizing that many (most?) wouldn’t want Faulk on the team, what do you think is a realistic price for him once his first paycheck is due in 7 weeks? Given the price paid for Skinner, I can’t imagine it costs anything too substantial.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Although I’d be surprised if he wasn’t on the roster, I don’t think that Ty Rattie is, or should be, a lock.

    I’m still not sure this is an NHL player without McDavid and I’m still predicting he becomes a drag on that line and won’t last long.

    If Yamamoto has a great camp and the team keeps 8D, we are looking at one spot for Aberg and Rattie.

    Of course, further injury will likely change that.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    What does everyone think of Brad Malone? Should I start a dialogue with my thoughts?

  9. godot10 says:

    Connoreah:
    Stauffer on ON yesterday seemed pretty comfortable with the Sekera injury (rightly or wrongly), and spoke a lot about the possibility of a trade for Faulk in early October. As for price, he said “we’re not talking about Nuge here.”

    Recognizing that many (most?) wouldn’t want Faulk on the team, what do you think is a realistic price for him once his first paycheck is due in 7 weeks? Given the price paid for Skinner, I can’t imagine it costs anything too substantial.

    Jeff Skinner has one year left on his contract and a NMC.

    Justin Faulk as two years left on his contract and a modified NTC. Right shot D are a scarce commodity. Lots of teams would be willing to take Faulk for a trial considering he has only two years on the deal. The price will be a lot more than Skinner.

  10. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    As an aside, John Cena was at the table beside – he’s a large man.

    I’m shocked that you could see him.

  11. GBandQ says:

    WARNING: THIS 2013 OILERS LINEUP CONTAINS CONTENT THAT SOME MAY FIND DISTURBING.

  12. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    What does everyone think of Brad Malone?Should I start a dialogue with my thoughts?

    I think he has a material chance to play 7 games again.

  13. jm363561 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    What does everyone think of Brad Malone?Should I start a dialogue with my thoughts?

    I’m down. Dug every one of the previous 26 Malone posts man, and just love the self deprecating humor. Go in peace OP.

  14. godot10 says:

    OP asked me about the cap yesterday and LTIR.

    I am not an expert and I could be wrong, but this is how I think it works.

    1) Lets say the cap is $80 million dollars, and the NHL season is 200 days.

    2) With Sekera head to LTIR, to maximize LTIR room one wants to be as close to $80 million (including Sekera) without bonuses on Day 1. (Hence Jesse Puljujarvi is not on the roster until Day
    2…potential bonus money takes away available LTIR room).

    3) So lets say on Day One the OIlers AAV without any bonuses is $79 million. If Sekera goes on LTIR for the full season, the Oilers can spend $84.5 millioni dollars during the season on salaries. ( If they were exactly at $80 million, they could spend $85.5).

    4) So the Oilers daily cap hit will now be $73.5 million/200 days. But they will undoubted add Puljujarvi back and a Sekera replacement…so lets say they drive it back up to $79 million/200 days with replacement players.

    4) Let’s assume Sekera is only out 2/3rds of the season, then the Oilers can spend to $79 + .67($5,5) = approximatley $82.75 million.

    5) If the Oilers have been spending at a $79 million dollar rate during the season, and accruing salary at a rate of $79 millioni/200 days. So 2/3rds of the season in they will have enough available cap room to add Sekera back without going over the $82.75 million dollar limit.

    6) This is the same reason teams can add expensive free agents at the deadline. If your spending rate during the season is less than the cap, than on a daily basis post trade deadline, one can be over the cap, as long as your actual total spending during the season is under $80 million (or whatever the cap is) + any LTIR you are due.

    I could be wrong.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    I remain confused with respect to our ability to actually acquire a player and exceed the cap via the LTIR cushion. I will re-post my issue at the end of this post by now I’m thinking that maybe they accrue cap space daily if they don’t use up the entire LTIR cushion.

    For example, the cap hit accrues and is calculated daily. A team that is under the $79.5M cap will accrue cap space daily.

    If a team is at the upper cap limit and they have long term injuries, they will be able to go over the cap by a certain amount for replacement players. The issue I have is that, once the player comes off LTIR, the cushion disappears and, given they were over the cap all season, they did not accrue any cap space so they cannot fit the replacement player and the player coming off LTIR under the cap.

    I’m wondering if they accrue cap space for any amount that they are under the cap plus the bonus cushion? For example, if the complex calculation allows the Oilers to go up to, say, $83.5M but they only use $82M via replacement players, then they accrue cap space that may allow them to fit both Sekera and the replacement player under the cap with Sekera is activated.

    Is that right?

    ————————————-

    Original Post:

    Thanks, I’m still confused though (and probably making myself look stupid).

    My understanding is that the LTIR relief doesn’t forgive Sekera’s cap hit while on LTIR but works to allow the Oilers to go over the cap, by a certain amount based on a formula, while he’s on LTIR.

    So, in your example, are they actually at $78M?

    Lets say we sign Nurse for an amount that takes us to $78M with an upper cap limit of $80M for round numbers so we have $2M of cap space.
    We then sign Enstrom for $2.5M which puts us over the cap at $80.5M – we proceed to send down Puljujarvi to be cap compliant on day 1 and then bring him back up and place Sekera on LTIR.

    We now have an $80.5M cap hit but its OK to be over due to Sekera and his LTIR.

    When Sekera comes off 2/3 of the way through the season, I understand he’s less than $2M for the rest of the year but the team was over the cap all year and accumulating any cap space buffer.

    I’m sure I”m missing something here.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10,

    My post above was posted prior to you explanation – and thank you for that.

    So, I think a team accrues cap space for any day that they are under the cap plus the LTIR cushion.

    That must be how it works.

  17. Wilde says:

    I de-stressed by drawing pictures of the Pacific Division Dcorps yesterday to contextualise the Sans-Sekera Edmonton back-end:

    https://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2018/08/sans-sekera.html

  18. RISTOOOOO SILTANEN!!!! says:

    Wilde:
    I de-stressed by drawing pictures of the Pacific Division Dcorps yesterday to contextualise the Sans-Sekera Edmonton back-end:

    https://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2018/08/sans-sekera.html

    That Oil logo alone is worth the click. Nice hand Sir!

  19. Melvis says:

    OriginalPouzar: Should I start a dialogue with my thoughts?

    Why not? I do that all the time. The internal responses often amuse me.

    Now where did I park my ride…

  20. Wilde says:

    RISTOOOOO SILTANEN!!!!: That Oil logo alone is worth the click. Nice hand Sir!

    I deliberated heavily between pursuing writing or illustrating, so a project like this that lets me use my elite artistic ability will always have a special place in my heart.

  21. Wilde says:

    I should mention though that only one of the drawings is my own before I get murdered by copyright.

  22. frjohnk says:

    Wilde,

    Nice work. Thanks

  23. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ahhh, Will Acton – good times – what a stud……

    If forced to choose: 2013 Will Acton or 2018 Brad Malone?

  24. Melvis says:

    Wilde,

    I was wondering if you were a graphic designer in another life as I was flipping through David Carson’s work the other day.

    http://www.davidcarsondesign.com

  25. Wilde says:

    Melvis:
    Wilde,

    I was wondering if you were a graphic designer in another life as I was flipping through David Carson’s work the other day.

    http://www.davidcarsondesign.com

    You mock me as if you aren’t aware of my eighth grade Art class top-percentile performance.

  26. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    – It all makes sense now OP! I kid. I was on the equity/M&A side when drafting prospectuses as a banker in both Canada and the UK: credit prospectuses though same in structure…

    – The LTIR is as I said before silly as it’s stated: I don’t get why it isn’t plain-languaged

    – But the math is simply: If Sek is out for 50% of games, we have an extra 50% of his salary to use

    – But they have these dumb things about papering players to be under, on specific days, accruals, blah blah.

    – Safe to assume Sek is gone for the year and we can spend $5.5MM. That’s what Chia said

  27. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    Nope you are correct. You have to be cap compliant the day of the start of the season so all your players even injured players have to be less than or equal to the salary cap. Then you can LTIR players and use their cap hit for replacements going over the salary cap with the cap hits prorated to the amount of time they are off or on the roster.
    So we cannot bring in a 5 mil dollar contract as Sekera’s replacement until after the season starts.

  28. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    Doesnt matter. Cant afford the player. Havent signed Nurse yet. We dont have a starting goalie signed for next season. We will be stuck with Sekera’s contract. We cannot bring in players with term even only 2 years

  29. Melvis says:

    Wilde,

    No mock! Take it from me. It’s all downhill from there. However, the oil and praxis marriage rubs up against poiesis.

  30. prefonmich says:

    I just heard a rumour. PJ and 2019 first for Faulk. Can anyone confirm or deny? DENY PLEASE. if this happens I am done with this team.

  31. Wilde says:

    Melvis:
    Wilde,

    No mock! Take it from me. It’s all downhill from there. However, the oil and praxis marriage rubs up against poiesis.

    Well, if what I’m told by some about aging is true, my enjoyment of life plotted on two axis will look more like a uh, binomial distribution. Or a bell curve. Whichever one says the middle was the best.

    What I mean to say is school sucked.

    I’m having much more fun now, even with the responsibility and wage slavery.

  32. prefonmich says:

    prefonmich,

    Sorry it was my jerk of an uncle playing a joke. I fell for it. Phew.

  33. Wilde says:

    Did anyone mention the Kase contract? Every time that third year shows up on a bridge, I like it for Puljujarvi’s future.

  34. hunter1909 says:

    WHO’S CALLING ME A HATER!!??

    On a less catastrophic note, the American Left continue to behave as if people give a fuck about what they think.

    The current Facebook/Wordpress/Twitter coordinated attack by the “progressive” elements who run tech against the alternative mindset is going to backfire horribly on them.

    @Lowetide: please feel free to delete this, naturally. My sobriety, which had about 48 hours to enjoy life is probably about to take a running jump into the Grand Canyon.

  35. Melvis says:

    hunter1909: My sobriety, which had about 48 hours to enjoy life is probably about to take a running jump into the Grand Canyon.

    I’d join you, but I can’t find my car.

  36. Wilde says:

    hunter1909: the American Left

    Do you mean the centre-right moderates, DNC et al, or the Democratic Socialists?

  37. Lowetide says:

    prefonmich:
    I just heard a rumour. PJ and 2019 first for Faulk. Can anyone confirm or deny? DENY PLEASE. if this happens I am done with this team.

    Who is PJ?

  38. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909:
    WHO’S CALLING ME A HATER!!??

    On a less catastrophic note, the American Left continue to behave as if people give a fuck about what they think.

    The current Facebook/Wordpress/Twitter coordinated attack by the “progressive” elements who run tech against the alternative mindset is going to backfire horribly on them.

    @Lowetide: please feel free to delete this, naturally. My sobriety, which had about 48 hours to enjoy lifeis probably about to take a running jump into the Grand Canyon.

    I’ve been hammered all week.

  39. Melvis says:

    I once suggested Kassian playing D. Bag of Pucks reiterated the notion yesterday. A cursory glance suggests all the surface features of a harebrained idea. Yet, a deeper probe into intuition won’t leave me alone.

    I wouldn’t mind watching 3 on 2 soft practices with him – and say, Nurse riding shotgun. Just for the hell of it.

  40. Side says:

    hunter1909:

    The current Facebook/Wordpress/Twitter coordinated attack by the “progressive” elements who run tech against the alternative mindset is going to backfire horribly on them.

    … you’re not referencing Alex Jones, are you?

  41. Melvis says:

    Also, I can’t find a tune called Training Camp.

  42. PigeonCamera says:

    prefonmich,

    Where are you hearing this? That would be insane. Assuming PJ is Puljujarvii.

  43. geowal says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    What does everyone think of Brad Malone?Should I start a dialogue with my thoughts?

    I heard he’s an elite press box centreman who’s been spending his summer practicing clearing pucks by hitting the upper two inches of glass, “gently” slashing sticks with pre made cracks in them and taking anger management classes.🏒

  44. leadfarmer says:

    hunter1909,

    Old man yells at cloud yet again

  45. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: I’ve been hammered all week.

    +1

  46. prefonmich says:

    Lowetide,

    Puljujaarvi

  47. prefonmich says:

    PigeonCamera,

    My jerk of a relative. He follows the Oilers more closely than me and despite the unbelievability of the trade he gave me a few solid sources and pulled me right in. Sorry to share, I have that little faith in Chia that I thought he could pull something that poor… anyway, its untrue for now.

  48. Melvis says:

    Camera closes in on GM fretting outside Owners office. Some unconscious fidgeting and foot tapping.

    Internal Monologue 1:

    “C’mon in Peter. Sit down. Make yourself comfortable. Coffee? (Cindy, can you bring the man a half caff latte please). I’ve got a few questions.”

    “Fire away .”

    “I’ll get to that. Here it is in a nut shell. The D can be construed as a paper construct. Sekera is out for the season. Nurse remains unsigned and you’re up against the cap. Would you mind elaborating Plan B for me in ten words or less?”

    “Errrr”

    “Save that for the presser. How would you like an all expense paid trip for the season to a warmer climate. The tan I’m wearing isn’t cheap. (Cindy, would you mind bringing me a pink slip please)

    “Errrr”

  49. bendelson says:

    Melvis:
    Also, I can’t find a tune called Training Camp.

    Well, there is a D.O.A. song… but it’s most definitely the wrong training camp!

  50. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Is there a realistic chance of Persson coming over?

    I don’t even think he was coming over for camp but slated to play the year on loan to Vaxjo.

    I assume his $832K salary if playing for the Oilers would be more than he makes in Sweden, however, given this is an ELC its a two-way contract so he would make much less if assigned to the AHL – although I gather we’d “re-loan” him to Vaxjo if he doesn’t make the team.

    I don’t see the Sekera injury getting him flying across the Atlantic.

    As an aside, he’s got performance bonus potential up to $850K – if he comes over, earns a spot and plays well, it could be quite lucrative.

    I still wonder what his RFA contract might look like if he has another good season in Sweden – performance bonuses won’t be an option and I think the contract may not be that cheap.

    Not bringing him over for training camp in light of the situation at hand makes no sense. The team has to look at every option available.

  51. StixMalone says:

    What happens if Sekera decides to retire? I’m thinking in regards to salary or does he stay on insurance for remainder of contract?

  52. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    What does everyone think of Brad Malone?Should I start a dialogue with my thoughts?

    Why must we hear the same verbal diarrhea every day? Please move on.

  53. Oilman99 says:

    Jaxon:
    I’m still not sure Rattie is a lock over Aberg or Yamamoto or even Marody. He has a training camp and 8 pre-season games to screw this up and his track record says he is very capable of doing just that. If Caggiula wasn’t getting overpaid so much I would have put him on the uncertain list, but that contract shows Chia and TMac share some faith in him. I think Yamamoto starts in the AHL just because he can without being exposed and Bouchard can play the first 9 games similar to the situation Yamamoto benefitted from last year which had Puljujarvi starting in the AHL.

    Rattie is the closest thing they have a pure goal scorer, which is why they put him with Connor last spring. Don’t count him out, he knows this is a golden opportunity.

  54. Oilman99 says:

    StixMalone:
    What happens if Sekera decides to retire? I’m thinking in regards to salary or does he stay on insurance for remainder of contract?

    LTIR is a much more advantageous option for the team, as they can write off his total salary.

  55. Jordan says:

    Wilde,

    Hey WIlde,

    Was just thinking about numbers from your projections for the D Corps in the Pacific and I have some questions:

    Does the GAR, WAR or PR data take any circumstances of play (Common Linemates, PP/PK/EV TOI, or QualComp data into consideration, or are they “raw” numbers?

    Based on your understanding of the numbers and what they represent, could they be used to project either the value of a specific pairing, or of the defense corp(se) as a whole?

    I was curious to see if the numbers correlated to what I thought I understood about the overall strength of a given team’s d-corps, so I aggregated them with the following results:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x_26B4itETAdQyqfh5SJ7to24Sd5BPvPaWa0GlrphVQ/edit?usp=sharing

    Interested to hear feedback – does this provide insight, or does this provide noise?

  56. Gerta Rauss says:

    Oilman99: Why must we hear the same verbal diarrhea every day? Please move on.

    He was joking

    Lighten up

  57. Gerta Rauss says:

    Oilman99: LTIR is a much more advantageous option for the team, as they can write off his total salary.

    No it isn’t

  58. Gerta Rauss says:

    StixMalone:
    What happens if Sekera decides to retire? I’m thinking in regards to salary or does he stay on insurance for remainder of contract?

    If Sekera decides to retire, the Oilers wash their hands of the entire contract..cap hit, money, roster spot, everything.

    I doubt he does that however, because he’s owed $14.5M over the next 3 years, and he’d walk away from every nickel.

    Yes, insurance would pay all of that if he’s unable to play the next 3 seasons

  59. bendelson says:

    Melvis: I’d join you, but I can’t find my car.

    I appreciate you not saying ‘dude’…

  60. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Oilman99: Not bringing him over for training camp in light of the situation at hand makes no sense. The team has to look at every option available.

    I’m not quite sure why the plan was to not bring him to camp in the first place. We weren’t exactly flush with right-shot, 24 year old, offensive defencemen before Sekara’s injury. I’m also very concerned that top 4 minutes might have Benning in over his head, regardless of who his partner is. Which is why they need to just pay the market price and bring in someone established. If they bring in a 6-7 guy, and Benning struggles on 2nd pair, this is gonna be a big mess. Please fix this before camp!! We were in the same spot last summer, and we all know how it turned out.

  61. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde:
    I de-stressed by drawing pictures of the Pacific Division Dcorps yesterday to contextualise the Sans-Sekera Edmonton back-end:

    https://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2018/08/sans-sekera.html

    Another nice peice. Enstrom Russell would be the smallest D pairing in the league. Maybe vet Enstrom with Benning and Nurse with Russell.

  62. jtblack says:

    LT. what were you so damn angry about in 2013?

    The Roster?

  63. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    LT. what were you so damn angry about in 2013?

    The Roster?

    Opening night against Winnipeg. They should have won that game, the Toronto game, too.

  64. SwedishPoster says:

    Lowetide: I’ve been hammered all week.

    For some reason that comment got me thinking of this great song by a brilliantly named danish band.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7iE1KQZ-GVY

  65. N64 says:

    prefonmich:
    PigeonCamera,

    My jerk of a relative. He follows the Oilers more closely than me and despite the unbelievability of the trade he gave me a few solid sources and pulled me right in. Sorry to share, I have that little faith in Chia that I thought he could pull something that poor… anyway, its untrue for now.

    A kid came to the door at Hallowe’en dressed up as Chia with a phone in his hand.
    Scary, kids, scary!

  66. Melvis says:

    bendelson,

    That “dude” thing always stuck in my craw. Combine it with that distant cousin “sorry” and it’s like getting poked in the face with the third finger.

    I rounded up yesterday’s gas purchase with a three line, no extra 6/49. I got all six numbers – two on each line. Three freebies aren’t really free.

    I call that DOA. Shit, now I remember where I left the car.

  67. VOR says:

    I thought some of you might like this thoughtful piece about what Data Scientists do all day. I think there are some insights of value to the fancy stats community.

    https://hbr.org/2018/08/what-data-scientists-really-do-according-to-35-data-scientists

  68. trencan says:

    prefonmich:
    I just heard a rumour. PJ and 2019 first for Faulk. Can anyone confirm or deny? DENY PLEASE. if this happens I am done with this team.

    I believe this is what Carolina is asking right now based on Sekera situation. I also believe Bob Stauffer mentioned the trade is possible in October when the price will be much lower. Carolina dont want to pay their third pair Dman 6m. (I mean Real money, no salary cap)

  69. Wilde says:

    Jordan:
    Wilde,

    Hey WIlde,

    Was just thinking about numbers from your projections for the D Corps in the Pacific and I have some questions:

    Based on your understanding of the numbers and what they represent, could they be used to project either the value of a specific pairing, or of the defense corp(se) as a whole?

    I was curious to see if the numbers correlated to what I thought I understood about the overall strength of a given team’s d-corps, so I aggregated them with the following results:

    I’m glad you asked, I’ve mentioned this before but my main weakness in ‘predicting’ defense corps is putting individual players together into pairings.

    For example, Shea Theodore + Deryk Engelland is not a pairing I thought would work.

    I didn’t think Sekera + Russell would either.

    I can rate defensemen fine, but when it comes to arbitrating who can carry who and who will sink who, weighting TOI shares to project the totality of the Dcorps I’m wrong a lot.

    In terms of just the math of putting the numbers together, it’s tough, because of stuff like who plays with who and for how long and how they’re used.

    For example, if a D corps’ highest rated guy ends up playing the least and with the worst partner, the net influence of his higher rating is lower

    (simplified)

    You can see in your document Anaheim is the best, and that was my take without putting the numbers together – they’re the easiest to do this with because there’s almost no ambiguity in year-to-year usage and context differences – only the bottom pairing is going to be different and there’s a rookie that’s decently promising and a veteran that’s a massive upgrade on last years’ Bieksa contribution.

    You can also see this a bit with the difference between my evalutation of Arizona and your arithmetic: They’re held down by the difference between my personal projection of Ekmann-Larsson being much better and Goligoski being better sheltered and Chychrun continuing his trajectory in the GAR department.

    Jordan:
    Does the GAR, WAR or PR data take any circumstances of play (Common Linemates, PP/PK/EV TOI, or QualComp data into consideration, or are they “raw” numbers?

    Yes and yes and yes, in the preamble about their limitations and discrepancies in evaluation versus traditional measures I talked a bit about disciplines and QoC and QoT, here’s the links to their methodology along with quick summary of components:

    (The QoT and QoC and deployment are factored into each of the components)

    Chace’s GAR:

    https://hockeyandstuff.weebly.com/chaces-blog

    3) Even Strength Offence
    3A) C-BPM
    3B) C-XPM
    4) Even Strength Defense
    5) Power-play Offence
    6) Penalty Differential
    7) Extras

    (Actually, I just realised I’m going to end up in the spam filter if I use more links, but here’s the rest of the summaries)

    Emmanuel Perry’s WAR:

    Offensive shot rates
    Defensive shot rates
    Offensive shot quality
    Defensive shot quality
    Shooting
    Penalties taken
    Penalties drawn
    Zonal transitions

    (Corsica Player Rating is a weighted stacking of per game WAR from the past 120 games, as I understand it)

    Jordan:
    Interested to hear feedback – does this provide insight, or does this provide noise?

    No, this is useful and I should have included it, up until the ‘Overall D corps rank’. It’s good to see where their guys are by which model and how, as opposed to having to scroll around everywhere. For example, the only place the Oilers are good is the GAR, and you can bet it’s from me grabbing Oscar’s 2016-17 numbers.

    Which then you can ask an interesting question: Is the most important facet of this Dcorps having a 2017 version of Oscar Klefbom? I’d say yes.

  70. Jordan says:

    trencan: I believe this is what Carolina is asking right now based on Sekera situation. I also believe Bob Stauffer mentioned the trade is possible in October when the price will be much lower. Carolina dont want to pay their third pair Dman 6m. (I mean Real money, no salary cap)

    Yeah, who do they think they are, stealing the Oilers’ schtick like that.

    This is a vaunted and venerable tradition in Oiltown, going back to the days of Pancakes on the 4th line and Comrade Horcov on our checking line.

    It was bad enough with Pittsburg immitating the Oil with the War Pig, but this… this is going to far!

  71. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide: Opening night against Winnipeg. They should have won that game, the Toronto game, too.

    Damn Dubnyk

  72. Jordan says:

    Wilde,

    Thanks for the detailed reply – clearly I didn’t read / understand your preamble.

    Its a very interesting way to view/project a D-crops.

    Are you planning to do the rest of the league?

    If you could, it would be possible to evaluate your model against team performance this year, which would be fun too!

  73. Melvis says:

    Hope isn’t part of my vocabulary, much. And I’m now viewing the coming season as a comme ci, comme ca kind of thing. ( My high school French teacher passed away the other day)

    “Melvis, quit fuckeeng the dog”
    “‘mange la merde, under my breath.”
    “Get out! And don’t come back until you get a haircut.”
    “Foo-toire”
    “What did you say?
    “Knee-cha. That’s Ukrainian for nothing, in case you wanted to know.”

    High school, meh.

    Anyway, there’s brandy in my coffee, in case you really wanted to know.

    Here’s the question, though. And maybe Wilde can parse his thoughts on the matter. I’d appreciate it after all that ass kissing.

    Jake Gardiner comes up for renewal in July, ’19. He’s currently at 4.5 mil. I don’t know a heavy Leafs fan on the planet who wants him around in the present – never mind the future. I like his O, although his D strikes me as tire fire.

    Would anyone here consider him acquisition worthy?

  74. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GBandQ:
    WARNING: THIS 2013 OILERS LINEUP CONTAINS CONTENT THAT SOME MAY FIND DISTURBING.

    *strong clapping*

  75. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    I de-stressed by drawing pictures of the Pacific Division Dcorps yesterday to contextualise the Sans-Sekera Edmonton back-end:

    https://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2018/08/sans-sekera.html

    How do you feel about Corsica giving Larsson and Benning an almost identical Player Rating?

  76. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: How do you feel about Corsica giving Larsson and Benning an almost identical Player Rating?

    They also gave Schlemko and TVR higher player ratings than Larsson.

    Those two were among the most sheltered via WoodMoney TOI vs Elite Forwards and via Tyler’s “playing vs top 6 forwards via OTF shifts”

    I know I’m beating a bit of a dead horse here, but I can’t take those ratings/WAR/GAR seriously when I see 3rd pair Dmen rated above a 1st pair Dman with a positive RelTGF% over the last 2 years.

  77. godot10 says:

    Oilman99: Rattie is the closest thing they have a pure goal scorer, which is why they put him with Connor last spring. Don’t count him out, he knows this is a golden opportunity.

    Rattie is the closest thing the Oilers have to a soft minutes top 6 AHL winger. Uh…er…Caggiula might give him a run for the money.

  78. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They also gave Schlemko and TVR higher player ratings than Larsson.

    Those two were among the most sheltered via WoodMoney TOI vs Elite Forwards and via Tyler’s “playing vs top 6 forwards via OTF shifts”

    I know I’m beating a bit of a dead horse here, but I can’t take those ratings/WAR/GAR seriously when I see 3rd pair Dmen rated above a 1st pair Dman with a positive RelTGF% over the last 2 years.

    Would you mind repeating that in English please.

    “I don’t know know how you guys walk around with those things…Elaine Benes.”

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: If forced to choose: 2013 Will Acton or 2018 Brad Malone?

    Yikes – please don’t make me choose – I may go with 2018 Malone, egregious question.

    As an aside, Will Acton is the leading scorer and a PPG player on the Schwenningen Wild Wings of the Deutsche Eishockey League (Germany) .

  80. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: Opening night against Winnipeg. They should have won that game, the Toronto game, too.

    The Winnipeg game…The Dementor Rises. With the prologue…the last pre-season game against Nashville…The Dementor on the Horizon.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    OriginalPouzar,

    – It all makes sense now OP!I kid.I was on the equity/M&A side when drafting prospectuses as a banker in both Canada and the UK: credit prospectuses though same in structure…

    Very cool (although I will have to say: Prospectuses (and other public offering documents), why so much regurgitation?

  82. Melvis says:

    Man, you guys have looong memories.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    godot10,

    Doesnt matter.Cant afford the player.Havent signed Nurse yet.We dont have a starting goalie signed for next season.We will be stuck with Sekera’s contract.We cannot bring in players with term even only 2 years

    Agreed – so many people on so many platforms positing acquisitions that make it look like we just have an extra $5.5M in cap space indefinitely.

    Taking on Justin Faulk and his cap hit for next year is, in my opinion, a terrible move – give how much of a tire fire he is in his own zone (and in 4 CAR games I watched last year, he wasn’t any better than how he played against the Oil), I’m not sure he makes the team better.

    There are also rumors of personal issues but those are 100% rumors.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    prefonmich:
    I just heard a rumour. PJ and 2019 first for Faulk. Can anyone confirm or deny? DENY PLEASE. if this happens I am done with this team.

    That’s so ridiculous its impossible to take it seriously.

    I wouldn’t trade either of those assets for Faulk.

    I may not even take Faulk for free: (a) I’m not sure he makes the team better and (b) his cap hit in 2019/20 is not something we want to deal with.

  85. Westchester Oil says:

    Nothing really to do with hockey but Robin Brownlee wrote a beautiful article today at Oilers Nation. Nice read for all the parents out there. Almost ‘Lowetidian’ in its tone.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Not bringing him over for training camp in light of the situation at hand makes no sense. The team has to look at every option available.

    I think they are already playing pre-season games over there – I don’t think this plan is changing.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Why must we hear the same verbal diarrhea every day? Please move on.

    From me or from you?

    Maybe check the tone of the post you are responding to before you launch in to your vendetta against me.

    Where else on the internet will you follow me around to today in an attempt to disparage me.

    For likely the 10th time, please, if you have such an issue with me, express it or, of course, feel free to skip my posts – easily done. First step would be to not follow me around the internet looking for posts that upset you.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: LTIR is a much more advantageous option for the team, as they can write off his total salary.

    No its not. LTIR is only available once a team is right at the upper cap limit and it doesn’t just get rid of the player’s cap hit (and it can only be used once the season starts, etc.).

    If Sekera retires, his cap hit is gone completely – this is not a 35 plus contract.

    Of course, he’s very likely not going to retire and give up $16.5M.

  89. prefonmich says:

    trencan,

    Given what they received for Skinner, seems to me they are asking the moon for Faulk if that’s the case. Is it because Chia?!

  90. prefonmich says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Funny, that is exactly what I replied when he first told me about the ‘trade’… that I wouldn’t trade either asset let alone both, then Chia’s previous moves entered my brain and I convinced myself it actually could be true. I’m thankful its not but it wouldn’t surprise me as the Sekera injury has added a bit more pressure to the 2018-19 season for Chia.

    It must be playing through his mind that If he goes two seasons in a row doing nothing after a Sekera injury and both seasons end as badly as last year, that has to be his ticket out the door. He doesn’t seem to perform so well under this kind of pressure…

  91. Melvis says:

    Oilman99,

    There are a lot of options. Scrolling past for one. Positive engagement for another. Lawyer jokes come to mind. I tend to ignore a lot of daily opinion like errant popcorn farts in a crowded elevator. Mine included. Relax. Take a deep breath. Try some tai chi.

    You know why Gord made snakes before lawyers. He needed the practice. It’s the only lawyer joke I know. All the rest are true.

    Better Call Saul

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: I deliberated heavily between pursuing writing or illustrating, so a project like this that lets me use my elite artistic ability will always have a special place in my heart.

    Mathy and Artsy?

    Impressive combo

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    Did anyone mention the Kase contract? Every time that third year shows up on a bridge, I like it for Puljujarvi’s future.

    ANA gets their kids to sign very team friendly deals.

    I like Kase a lot and think that might be one of the best value contracts in the league over the next few years that isn’t an ELC

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: I’ve been hammered all week.

    So SOP then.

  95. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Oilman99: LTIR is a much more advantageous option for the team, as they can write off his total salary.

    That’s not the way it works.

  96. chrisco stu says:

    In October of 2013, I had been married for about six months and convinced my wife that since we were out of market here in Manitoba that we needed th Center ice package. I was convinced that the oilers had finally turned the corner. Yak was going to score thirty, Shultz was going to put up fifty points, the oilers were going to Make the playoffs! I have spent money I didn’t have poorly, but my God, I wish I never spent that two hundred bucks!

  97. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    StixMalone:
    What happens if Sekera decides to retire? I’m thinking in regards to salary or does he stay on insurance for remainder of contract?

    Sekera has 2 more years after 18/19 at 5.5

    I’d set the line that he willingly retires and forgoes the 11MM he is owed at about 100000-1

  98. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Gerta Rauss: No it isn’t

    I see you got there before me.

    Forgive me, I’m late to the thread.

  99. Georgexs says:

    WG,

    In response to your post yesterday:

    “Its my understanding that RelT is total of the WOWY. So its not really controlling for team mate, but more showing overall effect on team mate.”

    Here’s the post I refer to for RelT:

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2018/02/21/revisiting-relative-shot-metrics-part-1/

    I’m assuming Manny’s doing this or something close to this on corsica.

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis,

    You own this thread sir

  101. Jordan says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’m not going to claim to thoroughly understand the specific metrics, as I already proved I didn’t when earlier today, but the impression I get of a lot of those numbers is that they effectively provide an oversimplified idea of how effective they are in their roles.

    Woody, it sounds like your problem is that they don’t take into account the different roles that the Woodmoneys do such a good job of identifying.

    With a lot of the draft posts I’ve seen recently describing the different tiers of players within a draft year, would it not be possible to break out the different tiers of players within the NHL so those WAR/GAR numbers have better context? It might then be possible to apply a modifier to compensate / address the valuations provided by the WAR / GAR information for players across their roles…

    Lots of people (read – other people – not me) with time to dive on this, right? RIGHT?!

  102. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis: Would you mind repeating that in English please.

    “I don’t know know how you guys walk around with those things…Elaine Benes.”

    They’re rating the guys who hammer it in Tball above a guy who hits for average with a great glove vs Cy Young.

  103. pts2pndr says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Damn Dubnyk

    Not his fault! Dallas does Edomonton! The product of this relationship fortunately was Connor! Time to move forward and our current group of players show great promise!

  104. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: So SOP then.

    Cold but funny! LT should get an award for patience as should you.

  105. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I like sir about as much as I like dude. Sir is for old men. Me, I’m just an irresponsible kid. So there.

    And by the way, how is that parttay tent in a bison pasture out to Mundare coming along. Pretty soon you’ll need a chip burning stove in there.

  106. David says:

    When it comes to Bouchard making the team this year is it Schultz that has everyone so spooked?

    The idea that the Oilers rush their prospects is a bit over stated. The first overalls were not rushed, Eberle went back to junior twice, Klefbom was not rushed, Paajarvi was not rushed, Petry was not rushed, other second rounders such as Pitlick, Lander, Moroz were not rushed.

    It seems all the angst is centred around three possible suspects.

    Draisaitl: Kept up overlong perhaps? Possibly. Probably, however he was returned to junior where he flourished and it hasn’t seemed to harm his development.

    Puljujarvi: There is a case to be made he should have had another year in Finland and he was sent to the AHL halfway through his first season. There is a possible other side of the coin I’ll address right after

    Schultz: Not drafted by the Oilers, and coming out of College Schultz was NHL ready. He shredded the AHL for fun during the lockout. But with Schultz we see the other dimension of rushing players. Not rushing them to the NHL but rushing them into responsibilities and roles before they are ready for them. Schultz was given top 4 mins and counted on to be an impact player for the Oilers.

    Interestingly enough this was not done with Puljujarvi. I believe that Georges has already addressed that top 5 drafted forwards are given offensive roles early and that it often leads to success. Could it be the slow playing Puljujarvi’s role on the team that lead to “weaker” results?

    All of this to say, I believe the Oilers don’t actually have a rushing players problem and that the concern of repeating Justin Schultz should be tempered since Bouchard will not be counted on to be an impact player should he make the team but given an easier role of third pairing and some power play. Larsson, Benning, and Russell can all play higher RD positions and Bouchard can be sheltered.

  107. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Sekera has 2 more years after 18/19 at 5.5

    I’d set the line that he willingly retires and forgoes the 11MM he is owed at about 100000-1

    What is the provision if say the doctors were to say you can continue to play but in the event you injue it again you will not walk without a limp? Is there a way the player then is able to retire or does he have to stay on LTIR until his contract expires to collect his compensation.

  108. Georgexs says:

    David,

    David, you were the one who asked me about secondary assists early this year. I did the work back then and either forgot to post or wanted to wait until season end so I had more data.

    I recently posted on the topic here:

    https://lowetide.ca/2018/08/11/the-truth-at-20/

    And here:

    https://lowetide.ca/2018/08/12/the-kids-are-alright-2/

    It only took 6 months from when you asked the question to when I responded. My apologies.

  109. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yikes – please don’t make me choose – I may go with 2018 Malone, egregious question.

    As an aside, Will Acton is the leading scorer and a PPG player on the Schwenningen Wild Wings of the Deutsche Eishockey League (Germany) .

    Haha, sorry.

    And I agree with your choice. If forced to choose.

    Also, good for Will Acton.

  110. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs:
    WG,

    In response to your post yesterday:

    “Its my understanding that RelT is total of the WOWY. So its not really controlling for team mate, but more showing overall effect on team mate.”

    Here’s the post I refer to for RelT:

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2018/02/21/revisiting-relative-shot-metrics-part-1/

    I’m assuming Manny’s doing this or something close to this on corsica.

    Yes, that’s my understanding of it.

    From the link: “At the core, Rel TM revolves around the WOWY player pairs. More specifically, we need to find every teammate a given player played with during a given length of time for every player. ”

    Also,

    He mentions the co-linearity problem.

    It’s a problem for forwards, but its and especially tough problem for Dmen as they usually have a constant partner.

    I try to account for that in my piece I linked by looking at Dmen pairs and their effect on each Center, rather than the individual Dman.

  111. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jordan:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’m not going to claim to thoroughly understand the specific metrics, as I already proved I didn’t when earlier today, but the impression I get of a lot of those numbers is that they effectively provide an oversimplified idea of how effective they are in their roles.

    Woody, it sounds like your problem is that they don’t take into account the different roles that the Woodmoneys do such a good job of identifying.

    With a lot of the draft posts I’ve seen recently describing the different tiers of players within a draft year, would it not be possible to break out the different tiers of players within the NHL so those WAR/GAR numbers have better context? It might then be possible to apply a modifier to compensate / address the valuations provided by the WAR / GAR information for players across their roles…

    Lots of people (read – other people – not me) with time to dive on this, right?RIGHT?!

    I don’t think WoodMoney takes usage into account as much as it should, but it the best we can do right now.

    Tyler’s piece on OTF shifts vs. Top 6 towards spells out that there is lots of context that needs to be accounted for that is really tough to account for (unless you have Tyler’s database)

    I think that when we get puck and player movement data all of this goes to a completely different level.

  112. RonnieB says:

    trencan: I believe this is what Carolina is asking right now based on Sekera situation. I also believe Bob Stauffer mentioned the trade is possible in October when the price will be much lower. Carolina dont want to pay their third pair Dman 6m. (I mean Real money, no salary cap)

    You’re right about the money and it opens a tantalizing opportunity ( at least for the Oilers if they want to shed the Lucic contract ).
    Point # 1 Faulk’s performance has downward arrows for the past 2 years, but he is still an NHL caliber player. (He is probably a better risk than Justin Schultz was as a 3rd pairing, PP specialist.) With Carolina’s RHD lineup/prospects Faulk is a surplus asset.
    Point # 2 Faulk has a cap hit of $4.833 but salary of $6 million in each of the next 2 years.
    Point # 3 Carolina’s owner is cheap with capital letters and is reported to be deeply involved in GM decisions.
    Point # 4 Carolina’s owner has stated that he wants more toughness in his lineup.

    Point # 5 Milan Lucic has downward arrows for the past 2 years, but he is still an NHL caliber player. At the right price he would be an attractive option for a number of teams.
    Point # 6 Lucic is still a physical weapon. ( Refer to Point # 4 ).
    Point # 7 Edmonton’s owner is willing and able to spend to the Cap. ( Refer to Point # 3. )
    Point # 8 Lucic is owed an average wage of $4.5 million at a cap of $6 over the next 5 years, including just $3.5 this year.

    If the Oilers agreed to retain $1 million in a Lucic for Faulk trade, Carolina would get a cap hit of $5 with an average wage of $3.5 over the next 5 years, including just $2.5 this year compared to the $6 they would be paying Faulk. After this season Carolina (if they wished) would have a tradeable Lucic at an average wage of $3.5 for 4 more years. If Lucic has any kind of bounceback season there could be a lineup of teams wanting him at that price.
    The Oilers would subtract Lucic’s $6 million Cap hit and replace it with Faulk’s $4.833 and a retained salary of $1 million. The Sekera replacement dilemma would be solved without any increase in the Cap. The Oilers would still need to replace Lucic in the lineup, but have lots of options there once Sekera is on LTIR.
    After this season the Oilers will have a logjam on RD, but will have data to make an informed decision on trading one of Faulk, Benning, Bear, Bouchard, Persson, Berglund…as well as Russell and /or Sekera.

    Isn’t this a win-win trade ? Assuming NMCs/NTCs don’t get in the way.

  113. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They’re rating the guys who hammer it in Tball above a guy who hits for average with a great glove vs Cy Young.

    I was kinda serious about Jake Gardiner, though. Would you mind getting away from Tball for a sec (although I swoon over Ted Williams)… and elaborating on Gardiner, if you don’t mind.

    Doing so, and I’m good for a beer and a Nicky burger this season. Honest. I watched this the other day about a dozen times. No more putting it off. Colaiacovo aside. What an ass kisser.

    https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/mic-d-up-mcdavid-and-colaiacovo-have-some-fun-on-the-ice%7E1460427

  114. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I like sir about as much as I like dude. Sir is for old men. Me, I’m just an irresponsible kid. So there.

    And by the way, how is that parttay tent in a bison pasture out to Mundare coming along. Pretty soon you’ll need a chip burning stove in there.

    I fear a large thing with randoms so there is no thing.

    There might be cocktails though.

    I used to camp as a boy scout at Elk Island and would wake up to piss but was too afraid to leave the tent as giant goddamn buffalo were 10ft from my tent.

    If I knew then that they were essentially bovine I wouldn’t have any fear, but then they were terrifying.

  115. David says:

    Just expanding on Bouchard a bit more:

    If we assume Bouchard is “not ready” but still makes the team there are two points to address:

    a.) If Bouchard being on the team in a third pairing role will still hurt the team a significant amount then that problem exists even if Bouchard doesn’t make the team. The player who makes it instead of him because the Oilers don’t want to rush him would still hurt the team as he would so the Oilers success this year is not affected.

    b.) Bouchard staying “over-long” with the team before heading back down to Junior should not set off wailing in the street about how the Oilers are “ruining him”. How did Draisaitl turn out? I believe Alex Pietrangelo was also kept up with the blues for a long stint before returned to junior. If Bouchard hangs with the team for half a season before going back to junior that shouldn’t be harmful to his development.

    The point is that yes, the Oilers should try to put road blocks in the way of Bouchard making the team in the manner of players he has to leap over. But in the event that they cannot acquire a proven RHD and Bouchard makes the team, it should not lead to mass hysteria that the Oilers are wrecking Bouchard and that because he made the team it is doomed this season. The former is unfounded. The latter is unknowable.

  116. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    David,

    – a lot of this is true

    – the bottom line is that when your team sucks and you get a high draft pick that guy is better than most of the players in the line up so the temptation to play them is always there

    – if they decide to play Bouchard he is for sure the 6th best D on the roster (assuming a bonafide d is brought in to replace sek)

    – jultz he probably was amongst the top-4 d when he arrived. That’s not his fault

    – I hope they slow play Bouchard too but it’s a different situation now with depth.

    – maybe he is really awesome in his 9 games as a pp wizard and sweet passer and with a vet d he plays cushy minutes.

    – they will for sure use the 5.5mm to get another d who can at least play on 3rd pair which is what sek would have been slotted anyways. And pay that guy only 3.

    – could end up great in a year where the cup isn’t really the goal.

  117. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yes, that’s my understanding of it.

    From the link: “At the core, Rel TM revolves around the WOWY player pairs. More specifically, we need to find every teammate a given player played with during a given length of time for every player. ”

    Also,

    He mentions the co-linearity problem.

    It’s a problem for forwards, but its and especially tough problem for Dmen as they usually have a constant partner.

    I try to account for that in my piece I linked by looking at Dmen pairs and their effect on each Center, rather than the individual Dman.

    Wait, what’s your understanding of it?

    You said RelT “doesn’t really control for team mate” but here’s the calculation:

    Rel TM CF60 = Player’s on-ice CF60 – weighted average of all Teammates’ on-ice CF60 without Player (weighted by Player TOI% with Teammate)

    What do you think is going on that makes you say this isn’t an attempt to control for the effect of teammates?

  118. David says:

    Georgexs:
    David,

    David, you were the one who asked me about secondary assists early this year. I did the work back then and either forgot to post or wanted to wait until season end so I had more data.

    I recently posted on the topic here:

    https://lowetide.ca/2018/08/11/the-truth-at-20/

    And here:

    https://lowetide.ca/2018/08/12/the-kids-are-alright-2/

    It only took 6 months from when you asked the question to when I responded. My apologies.

    No apologies necessary, you don’t work for me. I have read your posts and am grateful for all the work. I enjoy your posts very much! The disparaging of secondary assists has always confused me and I am glad someone who actually uses stats to back up their opinions is looking into it.

  119. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    My dad was an animal whisperer. He’d chirp one of those big dudes over to the fence and give it a head rub. Although it might have been the alpha female. He was always a skirt chaser.

    The alacrity. Used to scare the shit out out of me.

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR:
    I thought some of you might like this thoughtful piece about what Data Scientists do all day. I think there are some insights of value to the fancy stats community.

    https://hbr.org/2018/08/what-data-scientists-really-do-according-to-35-data-scientists

    Thanks for that Vor.

    This paragraph resonated with me:

    One result of this rapid change is that the vast majority of my guests tell us that the key skills for data scientists are not the abilities to build and use deep-learning infrastructures. Instead they are the abilities to learn on the fly and to communicate well in order to answer business questions, explaining complex results to nontechnical stakeholders. Aspiring data scientists, then, should focus less on techniques than on questions. New techniques come and go, but critical thinking and quantitative, domain-specific skills will remain in demand.

    It’s all about communication.

    Greater knowledge is useless unless it’s understood by those who can effect change.

  121. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs: Wait, what’s your understanding of it?

    You said RelT “doesn’t really control for team mate” but here’s the calculation:

    Rel TM CF60 = Player’s on-ice CF60 – weighted average of all Teammates’ on-ice CF60 without Player (weighted by Player TOI% with Teammate)

    What do you think is going on that makes you say this isn’t an attempt to control for the effect of teammates?

    Because most players play often with the same players and this is especially true of D partners.

  122. jtblack says:

    what is SOP?

    Don’t discount TBall Crushers .. I knew a guy in Beer League amd he was so good and ………….

    LT. How is your Holiday?

    McDavid over / under on 120 points? I got the over. Any takers?

  123. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: ANA gets their kids to sign very team friendly deals.

    I like Kase a lot and think that might be one of the best value contracts in the league over the next few years that isn’t an ELC

    Florida has no state income tax. Orange County has Manhattan Beach.

  124. jtblack says:

    godot10: Florida has no state income tax.Orange County has Manhattan Beach.

    Edmonton has THE MALL. & uh umm, the Provincial Building.

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    what is SOP?

    Don’t discount TBall Crushers .. I knew a guy in Beer League amd he was so good and ………….

    LT. How is your Holiday?

    McDavid over / under on 120 points?I got the over.Any takers?

    SOP = Standard Operating Procedure

  126. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Florida has no state income tax.Orange County has Manhattan Beach.

    I don’t quite buy the Manhattan Beach argument.

  127. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I don’t quite buy the Manhattan Beach argument.

    They same guy who negotiates great 2ND contracts negotiates horrible 3Rd and free agent contracts. Lifestyle for the 24 and under must play into that.

  128. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: SOP = Standard Operating Procedure

    Guess I have been under a rock. We use the term @ work. Didn’t put 2+ 2 together

  129. Melvis says:

    godot10: Florida has no state income tax.Orange County has Manhattan Beach.

    I put half a decade into the good ole USA. Am I ever glad I maintained Canadian citizenship and eschewed dual citizenship. Although advantageous at the time. With the current presidency, if you want to call it that, I might be liable for tax on the same income – twice. Conceivably, in certain situations, one could end up with little more than nothing.

  130. Melvis says:

    jtblack,

    The Mall features a woman who recently lost a ring finger on the water slide. Jaysus. And I thought kiddy piss was enough to get me out of the pool.

  131. rickithebear says:

    Oilman99: Why must we hear the same verbal diarrhea every day? Please move on.

    Cause your on this blog.

    OPouzer is one of the more open thinker on this site.

    He sees value in all perspective.

    Weighs what he values most and adopts it.

    A progressive thinker.

    When he holds an idea. He holds hard.
    As an open thinker I suspect he looks at counter arguments and sees if they have value.

    As many of the progressive thinkers on here who hold to thier belief.

    When an idea comes up I test it’s value.
    my standard is
    1.GF and GA ratio affect.
    2. Area of idea in mechanism and goal diff map.
    3. Does it take in to account all possible influence.
    4. What level does it affect rate in that mechanism.

    If it has value I set it at its level of importance.
    Noting who stated it. To credit them if it is added.

  132. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Every once in a while you should watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1w8Z0UOXVaY

    If you roll a tight one from time to time, do that before watching this.

  133. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: SOP = Standard Operating Procedure

    Guess I have been under a rock. We use the term @ work. Didn’t put 2+ 2 together

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Every once in a while you should watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1w8Z0UOXVaY

    If you roll a tight one from time to time, do that before watching this.

    Link not working for me?

  134. godot10 says:

    Melvis: I put half a decade into the good ole USA. Am I ever glad I maintained Canadian citizenship and eschewed dual citizenship. Although advantageous at the time.With the current presidency, if you want to call it that, I might be liable for tax on the same income – twice. Conceivably, in certain situations, one could end up with little more than nothing.

    FATCA predated Trump. it was mostly Obama’s doing. Trump’s tax reforms have made it even worse for duals or Americans with small businesses in Canada who retained income inside their corps as a retirement plan and to avoid Obama’s FATCA.

    There is always some risk in deferring paying tax even by legitimate means because they can change the rules.

    We also saw that with Trudeau’s small business tax changes.

  135. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I don’t quite buy the Manhattan Beach argument.

    I’ve spent hours on all of them. It’s about the tan and wearing the shades at night at the Troubadour. Tres cool.

    Some swear by Laguna, some by Redondo, or Malibu, or the one down to San Clemente. My friend Karen has her house up for sale on Calle Isabella, if irc, 4509, across the street from La Casa Pacifica. Once known as Nixon’s Western White House. A mere 8.9 mil, if you’ve got the shekels burning a hole in your pocket.

    Having spent some time there, I tend to be a bit ascerbic about these things. They don’t amount to a hill of beans if you’re not actually producing something of value in the here and now.

  136. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: How do you feel about Corsica giving Larsson and Benning an almost identical Player Rating?

    “Many don’t rhyme perfectly, I count that for and not against the value of putting them together here.”

    “In general, what’s been found by most data scientists around hockey is that offensive impacts(and forwards) are much easier to distill than defense, and even-strength play the same comparatively to special team situations, especially penalty kill. ”

    “Certain player types are bearishly valued: Penalty differentials are one of the five big parts of these equations, and players who you may perceive to be rated too low often have a combination of the above point about lack of 5v5 offense, and a bad penalty differential.”

    “Even-strength shot share impacts are heavily weighted when it comes to defensive contributions; more than shot quality impacts This is due to the belief that players cannot influence the save percentage of the goalies they play in front of.”

    Benning is a guy who we know has better macro shot share impacts, so this is a guy we know who is getting a boost.

    Manny’s model we know rewards guys who offensively outperform their xGF, but doesn’t (or sometimes inversely) reward guys who defensively outperform xGA.

    If a model makes you double-take, just use general rules about the strengths and weaknesses of it, and see if there’s consistency in players it underrates and overrates. I know Larsson and Benning are gonna have opposite-ended directional pulls just from what the model values before I even peruse their numbers, I’m not surprised by it.

    I look at the methodology guys are using /then/ grab their data, every time.

    Some of the language gets lost in translation, I do what I can.

    Another example, Dom Luscycyzn’s game score loves point production. His model doesn’t like Larsson either. Guys who do more than produce points as play drivers get underrated, Nino-Hall at forward, Tanev-Hjalmarsson at D, to steal Ian Tulloch’s distillation.

    You can see the weighting in action here

    Player Game Score = (0.75 * G) + (0.7 * A1) + (0.55 * A2) + (0.075 * SOG) + (0.05 * BLK) + (0.15 * PD) – (0.15 * PT) + (0.01 * FOW) – (0.01 * FOL) + (0.05 * CF) – (0.05 * CA) + (0.15 * GF) – (0.15* GA)

    Heavy on points.

    Larsson’s two seasons in 15-16 and 16-17 tell me models like those two aren’t going to like him because he’s a usage freak who can not get murdered in roles 95% of Dmen would get murdered in.

    The purpose of the models in the exercise isn’t really to dig deep on Edmonton’s D corps but to get a cursory glance at the other Pacific teams without having to do the level of research I feel was necessary to get the full scope of things.

    I am reasonably comfortable in thinking I have a more detailed understanding of the individual Dmen on Edmonton than what the model can tell me, not entirely so with the other 40+ guys in the division.

    The reason I’m not gonna give Larsson a bump in the numbers in the excercise or say that he should get one is because then you have to give that to Tanev and every other guy in that player type, and then you also have to ding Burns et ceter et cetera.

    The other part is, especially with the GAR I was curious to see what the projected net of pairings were.

    Like I said earlier in the thread, I’m not super confident in my ability to project a /pairing/ because of issues weighting stuff, especially in pairings where there’s one guy who’s good and one guy who’s bad. The GAR gives you a little picture like hey, the guy who’s good adds eight and the guy who’s bad only takes away two, so they might be alright.

    That’s an interesting thing to note and come back on, to see if the model was right, wrong, and how often either. Or in what ways they were right and wrong. Then I take that and maybe I’m closer to projecting pairings than I am now.

  137. jtblack says:

    Manhatten Beach is more “L.A. KINGS” than Anaheim. Kings fly out of the airport right by Manhatten and most live in the area.

    If you are choosing Cities to Live in ad an NHL Player, IMHO the rankings are lead by the sunshine states.

    San Jose
    L.A.
    ANA
    T.B.
    NASHVILLE
    VEGAS

  138. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Unless PC can brew up something cool, Bouchard may very well be the best option we 3 RD.

    Would Franson, Persson, Bear, Davidson and even Russell be better? None have the range, maybe Russelll and Davie are ok defensively but the others aren’t necessarily. Enstrom with Russell off hand is likely not better than Russell Bouchard.

    Prepare thyself!

  139. jtblack says:

    Worst places to play:

    CAR
    PHO
    NYI
    DET
    MTL,TOR (MEDIA)
    CGY,EDM, WPG (MEDIA)

  140. jtblack says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Unless PC can brew up something cool, Bouchard may very well be the best option we 3 RD.

    Would Franson, Persson, Bear, Davidson and even Russell be better? None have the range, maybe Russelll and Davie are ok defensively but the others aren’t necessarily. Enstrom with Russell off hand is likely not better than Russell Bouchard.

    Prepare thyself!

    Almost no pick after #5 has made their team as a D man following the draft in the last 8 years. I think Chycryun is ine (#16); and his rookie season was NOT good.

    I like Bouchard long term; but just don’t see him being close to effective next year.

  141. Scungilli Slushy says:

    What the Oilers need is a RD that can actually do current hockey and keep the puck out of the net, not necessarily add many points, with decent size to compliment Russell and keep him LD to maximize him.

    If they are going to use a one way player it’ll be EB.

  142. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack: Almost no pick after #5 has made their team as a D man following the draft in the last 8 years.I think Chycryun is ine (#16); and his rookie season was NOT good.

    I like Bouchard long term; but just don’t see him being close to effective next year.

    I’m not saying they should, but why use a lesser player especially from outside?

  143. Scungilli Slushy says:

    There may be a boost to the D Corp if the new system supports them and gives them normal outlets or enough support, which allowed the Pens to succeed with an average group. Maximize what you have.

  144. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    I’m curious about VOR’s take on the merits of Evan Bouchsrd learning the finer points of the defensive role at the NHL level vs. the proclivities of being a clutch scorer on a skill line as an undersized winger in Kailer Yamamoto.

    Personally, I lump both into the prove me you can trounce the competition of the level currently above you before you get an audition in the bigs.

    Unless one or both blows the doors off the competition at camp, in which case… give them every opportunity to shine.

  145. rickithebear says:

    You have to advance the process.

    VOR Has added dought to my process.
    Created many rate affect level tests.
    These last challenges caused me to visit my approach.
    Seeing leading theorists in binary linear community migrate to the Boolean aproach
    Brought back full confidence.

    We gather here as fans of a team who seek to learn/develop more complex answers to winning.
    Discuss our approaches to the teams roster.

  146. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: ANA gets their kids to sign very team friendly deals.

    I like Kase a lot and think that might be one of the best value contracts in the league over the next few years that isn’t an ELC

    True but they lose a few! A risk you take!

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Unless PC can brew up something cool, Bouchard may very well be the best option we 3 RD.

    Would Franson, Persson, Bear, Davidson and even Russell be better? None have the range, maybe Russelll and Davie are ok defensively but the others aren’t necessarily. Enstrom with Russell off hand is likely not better than Russell Bouchard.

    Prepare thyself!

    Assuming health of the top 4 (big big assumption but lets go with it), I’m comfortable with Gravel/Russel, Enstrom/Russell, Russell/Davidson taking 12-14 even strength minutes per game.

    Yes, Benning being able to play 18 ES minutes as 2RD is also not sure thing, not even close – this is where we are though.

    Is Bouchard “better than” Russell or Davidson at 3RD? Well, I’m fairly confident he’ll be able to transition the puck better than them but I don’t know if that means he is “better than” them, end stop.

    Even if he does prove to be “better than” the others, that isn’t necessarily the threshold for me – this is a damn important prospect, its very rare for a 19 year old d-man (in particular one not drafted top 3) to play in this league, let alone have a material impact.

    Even if he is “better than” if that is because of lack of depth and not on merit, if he’s not able to move the needle and make the team better, then I don’t think starting his contract is the way to go (and generally, I”m not too worried about the 10 games player but moreso the 40 games on the roster).

  148. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Assuming health of the top 4 (big big assumption but lets go with it), I’m comfortable with Gravel/Russel, Enstrom/Russell, Russell/Davidson taking 12-14 even strength minutes per game.

    Yes, Benning being able to play 18 ES minutes as 2RD is also not sure thing, not even close – this is where we are though.

    Is Bouchard “better than” Russell or Davidson at 3RD? Well, I’m fairly confident he’ll be able to transition the puck better than them but I don’t know if that means he is “better than” them, end stop.

    Even if he does prove to be “better than” the others, that isn’t necessarily the threshold for me – this is a damn important prospect, its very rare for a 19 year old d-man (in particular one not drafted top 3) to play in this league, let alone have a material impact.

    Even if he is “better than” if that is because of lack of depth and not on merit, if he’s not able to move the needle and make the team better, then I don’t think starting his contract is the way to go (and generally, I”m not too worried about the 10 games player but moreso the 40 games on the roster).

    Agreed, I’m saying he may actually be the best option.

    Nobody’s mentioned it but Spector who I don’t admire has some Gulatzan quotes about Lucic.

    One of the two players other teams don’t want to play, the other being a fourth liner Reaves, and that they plan to capitalize on it, which is why he’s on the roster in the first place.

    It’s a good sign.

  149. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Because most players play often with the same players and this is especially true of D partners.

    A couple of days ago you were telling me I really need to stop using Rel GF% and start using RelT GF%. Now it feels like I’m defending RelT while you’re all yeah but it has its problems, man. What the hell! Straight ninja move…

  150. Melvis says:

    Now I’ll take the liberty of sharing a story about the Troubadour. Looking hard, one might spy some simile in regard to the hockeying.

    It was one those or, better yet, these nights. Arriving on the doorstep in a limo, hard on the heels of the one containing Henley and Fry. No line ups for us. We were promptly ushered in. One two. I was a nobody. They were close to being a somebody. Thing is, we had met on previous occasions , and I had been offered a job as a lighting designer for an upcoming tour.

    I didn’t know squat about lighting design. So a note of explanation.

    Hollywood, being a very small town, like the NHL, it didn’t matter a whiit. There were about 30 talent managers and various William Morris and CMA agents and their ilk worh knowing. They’re all in your rolodex, and you in theirs. Back then, people took your calls as a matter of course. David Geffen among them when his office was once ensconed in that mall, Crossroads of the World. Las Palmas And Sunset.

    Some interesting history there, as I digress. Aside from music. The original property includes a murder among the bigger players in LA, long gone.now And while I’m there, Bugsy Siegal’s RE partner once owned the space where the Comedy Store is located. If Seinfeld only knew.

    Nixon once did the paper work in his first lawyer gig out of college for those wisevguys. I suspect he ended up bent, from day one, unfortunately.

    So onward. It came down to how much influence one wielded with whoever you were working for. Plenty, on some occasions, in my case. Although that never prevented the odd talent manager shooting herself in the foot with what ever act she was managing at the time.

    Extemely difficult to get in, but once in, in like Flint. Getting out is much harder. Like a CEO in corporate Fortune 500. America. Major fuckups be damned. Better the satan you know, than the one considerably more competent from the outside.

    Anyway. The night in question featured Dobie Gray, basically a one hit wonder…the appropriately named Drift Away. I have no idea why the place was packed to the gills. Maybe everybody thought he was the pre -coming of Reinhart.

    Along about 2;00 am, I was driving west on Santa Monica, having sent the driver home hours earlier. Another call had a rental at my disposal at the door at departure time.

    Then at a red light. Stopped. Hard scrabble at the unlocked passenger door. Shit my pants and WTF.
    I had lead foot Melvis on the pedal, about to squeal out of there, when I realized there was a white cane and a blind man hanging halfway out the door.

    I relented. But therein lies the major problem. He needed to get to a certain address in Bal Air. And unable to describe the way, and I, mapless, didn’t have a clue. The streets were rolled up for the night, and nary a cab in sight. The pre-digital cellie world. Meh.

    Can you imagine the helplessness of drowning in your helplessness, and his, in that moment? Despite your best efforts? It’s a major lesson.

    The blind leading the blind. One that tends to assuage in seeking some D answers in this year, of all years, these Connor years.

  151. pts2pndr says:

    rickithebear:
    You have to advance the process.

    VOR Has added dought to my process.
    Created many rate affect level tests.
    These last challenges caused me to visit my approach.
    Seeing leading theorists in binary linear community migrate to the Boolean aproachBrought back full confidence.

    We gather here as fans of a team who seek to learn/develop more complex answers to winning.
    Discuss our approaches to the teams roster.

    Welcome back Mr Bear!

  152. pts2pndr says:

    Melvis:
    Now I’ll take the liberty of sharing a story about the Troubadour. Looking hard, one might spy some simile in regard to the hockeying.

    It was one those or, better yet,these nights. Arriving on the doorstep in a limo, hard on the heels of the one containing Henley and Fry. No line ups for us. We were promptly ushered in. One two. I was a nobody. They were close to being a somebody. Thing is, we had met on previous occasions , and I had been offered a job as a lighting designer for an upcoming tour.

    I didn’t know squat about lighting design. So a note of explanation.

    Hollywood, being a very small town, like the NHL, it didn’t matter a whiit. There were about 30 talent managers and various William Morris and CMA agents and their ilk worh knowing.They’re all in your rolodex, and you in theirs. Back then, people took your calls as a matter of course.David Geffen among them when his office was once ensconed in that mall, Crossroads of the World. Las Palmas And Sunset.

    Some interesting history there, as I digress.Aside from music. Theoriginal property includes a murder among the bigger players in LA, long gone.nowAnd while I’m there, Bugsy Siegal’s RE partner once owned the space where the Comedy Store is located. If Seinfeld only knew.

    Nixon once did the paper work in his first lawyer gig out of college for those wisevguys. I suspect he ended up bent, from day one, unfortunately.

    So onward. It came down to how much influence one wielded with whoever you were working for.Plenty, on some occasions, in my case. Although that never prevented the odd talent manager shooting herself in the foot with what ever act she was managing at the time.

    Extemely difficult to get in, but once in, in like Flint. Getting out is much harder. Like a CEO in corporate Fortune 500. America.Major fuckups be damned. Better the satan you know, than the one considerably more competent from the outside.

    Anyway. The night in question featured Dobie Gray, basically a one hit wonder…the appropriately named Drift Away. I have no idea why the place was packed to the gills. Maybe everybody thought he was the pre -coming of Reinhart.

    Along about2;00 am, I was driving west on Santa Monica, having sent the driver home hours earlier. Another call had a rental at my disposal at the door at departure time.

    Then at a red light. Stopped. Hard scrabble at the unlocked passenger door.Shit my pants and WTF.
    I had lead foot Melvis on the pedal, about to squealout of there, when I realized there was a white cane and a blind man hanging halfway out the door.

    I relented. But therein lies the major problem. He needed to get to a certain address in Bal Air. And unable to describe the way, and I, mapless, didn’t have a clue. The streets were rolled up for the night, and nary a cab in sight. The pre-digital cellie world. Meh.

    Can you imagine the helplessness of drowning in your helplessness, and his, in that moment? Despite your best efforts? It’s a major lesson.

    The blind leading the blind. One that tends to assuage in seeking some D answers in this year, of all years, these Connor years.

    Thanks for sharing! I have learned that as you get to know the others of your generation the more you realize how the stories interweave and what is truth!

  153. pts2pndr says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    I’m curious about VOR’s take on the merits of Evan Bouchsrd learning the finer points of the defensive role at the NHL level vs. the proclivities of being a clutch scorer on a skill line as an undersized winger in Kailer Yamamoto.

    Personally, I lump both into the prove me you can trounce the competition of the level currently above you before you get an audition in the bigs.

    Unless one or both blows the doors off the competition at camp, in which case… give them every opportunity to shine.

    Bouchard has proven to be the best in the OHL! Sending him back does not seem rational! Your options are limited. Having him play as your seventh D does not seem unresonable given your options!
    There should be options for teamss in the NHL not unlike junior hockey for special players!

  154. rickithebear says:

    Top 5 reg ssn GA teams can win a cup with bottom 25-30 GF
    Top 5 reg ssn GF teams have only won with top 15 GA.
    Non top 15 GA teams are 20 – 40% more likely to advance to round of 16 (playoffs) and round of 8 than non top 15 GF teams.

    GA is the driver.
    Dmen in a 2-1 structure is the most effective cause of natural DZ fit in HD area.
    Having a dman move to rover structure 1-1-1 chasing offence is bad for GA. (Yeilds High shot rates)
    GF (4 times less) efficiency.

    You want as much top end roster depth in the Most efficient unit Goal diff structure (3-2-1)
    3 forwards:
    Ability to penetrate HD area and target open space in net elevation: (high SH% avg)
    While being back in position to run NZ trap (largest Zone entry reduction)
    2Dmen
    You seek out Elite HD and 0% Corsi Dmen who have the highest % of reduction of shot density and open shots per CA. Which establishes a high save% avg the goalie is asked to perform around.
    You want a structure that provides the quickest transition passing to the forward avoid NZ trap.
    1 Goalie
    You want the best High Density Open shot save% goalies.

    This applies all the highest goal diff ratio affects.
    A very defined structure and position mechanic approach.

    Suter said it best.
    Turning them into fucking robots.

    The whole game is cantered around the save % avg in the game driven by The need for HD penetration.
    Years ago I posted a history of Save % and what precipitated decreases ( expansion)
    and increases (butter fly, Table hockey movement, Equipment: pad length, Flapper addition, pant circumference, Chest protector width, glove and blocker size, shoulder pad height.)

    Corey Hirsches break down of goalie equipment matched my list created for best league save % avg reduction.
    Perfect video.
    The HD ratio reduces as save% avg goes down. Making effective shot density area much larger.
    Allowing for more flexible structure in OZ.

    Less robotic play.

    Even offensive efficiency variance between fwd and rover reduces.
    HD area abandonment is less punishing.

    We likely will not see 80,s standard of dave% or season GAA avg.
    But
    It would make it a more flexible structure visually exciting game for the short attention span generation coming up.

  155. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: Assuming health of the top 4 (big big assumption but lets go with it), I’m comfortable with Gravel/Russel, Enstrom/Russell, Russell/Davidson taking 12-14 even strength minutes per game.

    Yes, Benning being able to play 18 ES minutes as 2RD is also not sure thing, not even close – this is where we are though.

    Is Bouchard “better than” Russell or Davidson at 3RD? Well, I’m fairly confident he’ll be able to transition the puck better than them but I don’t know if that means he is “better than” them, end stop.

    Even if he does prove to be “better than” the others, that isn’t necessarily the threshold for me – this is a damn important prospect, its very rare for a 19 year old d-man (in particular one not drafted top 3) to play in this league, let alone have a material impact.

    Even if he is “better than” if that is because of lack of depth and not on merit, if he’s not able to move the needle and make the team better, then I don’t think starting his contract is the way to go (and generally, I”m not too worried about the 10 games player but moreso the 40 games on the roster).

    While I understand what you are saying where is his progress better served? An example of where there needs to be room for exceptions to the current rules!

  156. pts2pndr says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    What the Oilers need is a RD that can actually do current hockey and keep the puck out of the net, not necessarily add many points, with decent size to compliment Russell and keep him LD to maximize him.

    If they are going to use a one way player it’ll be EB.

    Berglund would fit your description nicely! Maybe it is time to bring him over?

  157. pts2pndr says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    What the Oilers need is a RD that can actually do current hockey and keep the puck out of the net, not necessarily add many points, with decent size to compliment Russell and keep him LD to maximize him.

    If they are going to use a one way player it’ll be EB.

    Seems to describe Berglund perfectly!

  158. Ryan says:

    jtblack:
    Manhatten Beach is more “L.A. KINGS” than Anaheim.Kings fly out of the airport right by Manhatten and most live in the area.

    If you are choosing Cities to Live in ad an NHL Player, IMHO the rankings are lead by the sunshine states.

    San Jose
    L.A.
    ANA
    T.B.
    NASHVILLE
    VEGAS

    If I were an NHL player factoring in locale and taxes, I’d rate TB and Sunrise pretty high.

  159. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: While I understand what you are saying where is his progress better served? An example of where there needs to beroom for exceptions to the current rules!

    I don’t know where his development is best served out of the available options (NHL vs. CHL) but I don’t think the Pieterangelo treatment is a bad idea (if he shows he is ready for a game or two a week at the NHL level for a bit). Strongly weighted towards home games.

    I’m not adverse to dressing 11F and 7D either – shelter the kid big time at evens and provide some PP time and have McDavid and Drai take some extra shifts with the 4th line.

  160. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: Berglund would fit your description nicely! Maybe it is time to bring him over?

    He just signed for 2 more years in Sweden but there are outs. With that said, the plan is to bring him over next year, from accounts.

    We can’t just bring him over, he’s not on loan like Persson is with Vaxjo – Berglund doesn’t have a contract.

  161. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Every once in a while you should watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1w8Z0UOXVaY

    If you roll a tight one from time to time, do that before watching this.

    omg that’s funny…I was in tears…thx for that

  162. Melvis says:

    pts2pndr,

    I got nominated for a Peabody in 1980 for a radio show I wrote and co-produced on the music of the 60’s for Rogers Broadcast Productons that aired in 40 markets in Canada, and 160 on the ABC Radio Network in the US. Much to my surprise.

    Everything old is new again.

    Today, I’d place about a dozen people on this blog on a couple of rafts at the top of the Mississippi, and float them down over the summer to Nola with similar results. A better show, in my mind, using a layered approach and 24 tracks. A significant amount of the content resides right here, on a daily basis. An Odyssey, in other words.

  163. Melvis says:

    Gerta Rauss: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1w8Z0UOXVaY

    That link. Okay, Woodguy owns the thread. lolz

  164. Lowetide says:

    Melvis:
    pts2pndr,

    I got nominated for a Peabody in 1980 for a radio show I wrote and co-produced on the music of the 60’s for Rogers Broadcast Productons that aired in 40 markets in Canada, and 160 on the ABC Radio Network in the US. Much to my surprise.

    Everything old is new again.

    Today, I’d place about a dozen people on this blog on a couple of rafts at the top of the Mississippi, and float them down over the summer to Nola with similar results. A better show, in my mind, using a layered approach and24 tracks.A significant amount of the content resides right here, on a daily basis. An Odyssey, in other words.

    I bet i heard it. Love those shows. I have a “Motown” 8-album special somewhere around here, just incredible interviews married to music. Must have taken months.

  165. pts2pndr says:

    Melvis:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I like sir about as much as I like dude. Sir is for old men. Me, I’m just an irresponsible kid. So there.

    And by the way, how is that parttay tent in a bison pasture out to Mundare coming along. Pretty soon you’ll need a chip burning stove in there.

    Melvis:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I like sir about as much as I like dude. Sir is for old men. Me, I’m just an irresponsible kid. So there.

    And by the way, how is that parttay tent in a bison pasture out to Mundare coming along. Pretty soon you’ll need a chip burning stove in there.

    Melvis:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I like sir about as much as I like dude. Sir is for old men. Me, I’m just an irresponsible kid. So there.

    And by the way, how is that parttay tent in a bison pasture out to Mundare coming along. Pretty soon you’ll need a chip burning stove in there.

    I am an old man! Sir is a verbal sign of respect! With age should come wisdom! Dude is used by those that do not know or understand respect! I would trust that you would know the difference! I appologize if I was mistaken sir!

  166. who says:

    RonnieB: You’re right about the money and it opens a tantalizing opportunity ( at least for the Oilers if they want to shed the Lucic contract ).
    Point # 1 Faulk’s performance has downward arrows for the past 2 years, but he is still an NHL caliber player. (He is probably a better risk than Justin Schultz was as a 3rd pairing, PP specialist.) With Carolina’s RHD lineup/prospects Faulk is a surplus asset.
    Point # 2 Faulk has a cap hit of $4.833 but salary of $6 million in each of the next 2 years.
    Point # 3 Carolina’s owner is cheap with capital letters and is reported to be deeply involved in GM decisions.
    Point # 4 Carolina’s owner has stated that he wants more toughness in his lineup.

    Point # 5 Milan Lucic has downward arrows for the past 2 years, but he is still an NHL caliber player. At the right price he would be an attractive option for a number of teams.
    Point # 6 Lucic is still a physical weapon. ( Refer to Point # 4 ).
    Point # 7 Edmonton’s owner is willing and able to spend to the Cap. ( Refer to Point # 3. )
    Point # 8 Lucic is owed an average wage of $4.5 million at a cap of $6 over the next 5 years, including just $3.5 this year.

    If the Oilers agreed to retain $1 million in a Lucic for Faulk trade, Carolina would get a cap hit of $5 with an average wage of $3.5 over the next 5 years, including just $2.5 this year compared to the $6 they would be paying Faulk. After this season Carolina (if they wished) would have a tradeable Lucic at an average wage of$3.5 for 4 more years. If Lucic has any kind of bounceback season there could be a lineup of teams wanting him at that price.
    The Oilers would subtract Lucic’s $6 million Cap hit and replace it with Faulk’s $4.833 and a retained salary of $1 million. The Sekera replacement dilemma would be solved without any increase in the Cap. The Oilers would still need to replace Lucic in the lineup, but have lots of options there once Sekera is on LTIR.
    After this season the Oilers will have a logjam on RD, but will have data to make an informed decisionon trading one of Faulk, Benning, Bear, Bouchard, Persson, Berglund…as well as Russell and /or Sekera.

    Isn’t this a win-win trade ? Assuming NMCs/NTCs don’t get in the way.

    Well its a win for the Oilers.
    They are both bad contracts but 2 years of a bad contract is better than 5.

  167. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: He just signed for 2 more years in Sweden but there are outs. With that said, the plan is to bring him over next year, from accounts.

    We can’t just bring him over, he’s not on loan like Persson is with Vaxjo – Berglund doesn’t have a contract.

    Maybe the word entise would be more appropriate! He does apparently have an out of his current contract.

  168. JimmyV1965 says:

    jtblack:
    Worst places to play:

    CAR
    PHO
    NYI
    DET
    MTL,TOR (MEDIA)
    CGY,EDM, WPG (MEDIA)

    I would think Detroit would be a great place to play. They love hockey there, the media pressure is low and there’s some beautiful communities outside the motor city.

    I wonder about the media pressure in Calgary. They don’t have nearly as many blogs as Toronto, Edmonton and Montreal. And damned if I can find a single Calgary Flames podcast. Which is really weird. Does anyone know of one?

  169. rickithebear says:

    GA critical structure:
    3forwards:
    Offensive failure that still allows us:
    OZ face offs.
    Run NZ trap
    Break OZ cycle on perimeter.

    Dmen:
    Pressure zone entry behind NZ trap
    Collapse to perimeter of HD area.
    Force to perimeter and exterior cycle.
    Collapse HD area structure.
    Transition pass ASAP to forwards to avoid NZ trap.

    OUR elite GA dmen:
    HD dmen:
    Larsson:RHD 6’3” 212lb
    15 Eva in HD sys
    Top 10 1st comp HD dman with rover (1-1-1) HD coverage ability.
    #75 PK dman

    Russell: LHD (plays RD) 5’10” 173 lb
    13 Eva in HD sys
    Top 3 0% Corsi Dman 1/2/3rd comp achieves top 15 – 40 HD pair results.

    Gravel Healthy: RHD 6’4” 212 (No crohns)
    10eva in HD sys
    Top 15 2nd comp HD Dmen

    Sekera Healthy: LD
    16 Eva in HD sys
    Top 20 2nd comp HD Dman
    #37 PK dman

    Benning: RD 6’1” 204lb
    13eva
    Top 60 2/3 TD comp HD dman

    Nurse: LHD 6’4” 221Lb
    11 Eva in HD sys
    18 Eva in rover role
    Top 60 3rd comp HD Dman
    #67 PK dman

    We need to see Russell – Gravel in 1st comp situation.

    Klefbom non HD dman except with Larsson
    but top 10 results dragged down into 30-40’s
    High elite 1st comp gm rate with Fayne.
    14 Eva as rover
    12 Eva in HD sys.

    Emelin LHD 6’2” 218 lb
    10 Eva in HD sys
    Top 40 HD dman in 1/2/3rd comp with a top HD d partner
    Top 70 HD results in 2/3rd comp with a high rate rover.
    Top 80 PK

    Sbisa RD 6’2” 209 lb
    13 Eva in HD sys
    Top 45 HD 1/2/3rd comp HD results with HD partnered role.
    Sub results with rovers or asked to play rover.
    #47 PK dman

    I would rather bring in Emelin or Sbisa to potentially Provide better 1st comp coverage.
    To face teams with top line depth.

  170. Melvis says:

    Lowetide,

    Chances are you did hear it, although it was nearly 40 years ago. It was seminal, in a way. I employed two voices, male and female, which was kind of rare at the time. As originally scripted, I had them doing foreground historical narrative.

    The backbone of the show was predicated on a cross country road trip taken by a couple who were constantly rotating the dial seeking out great music through four basic musical periods. British invasion, Motown, New York, and west coast. Basically Billboard top forty in the 60’s.

    Finding a pair of non radio voices for the second couple proved to be a serious chore. A lot of demos with a lot of people who couldn’t cut the mustard.

    Donnie Burns, a one time rock jock at CHUM and quite the character, ended up assuming both male voices. Although many here weren’t born yet, it’s likely everybody has unknowingly heard that big voice under any number of international brands over the years. Both he and the female voice had great chemistry, and ended up playing both the foreground and background roles. ( For the life of me, I can’t remember her name right now, but I’ve still got the script kicking around somewhere. I’ll have to dig it up.)

    The first four hours turned out pretty good. The demo sold out every 4th minute to major brands within a couple days of it hitting the major Ad agencies. Thus the local guys wouldn’t have had much trouble minting coin selling the remainder;-)

    Things went wildly awry after ABC decided they wanted 52 more followup hours. Greed took over. I hummed amd hawed for a couple of days. The material simply wasn’t there. At which time, a couple of ad copywriters at CFTR volunteered to write them, gratis. Then it went to crap. I couldn’t listen and have no idea what followed. In fact, I had no idea the pilot had received the nomination until some years later.

    I had walked long before, the result of a kerfuffle with “Charlotte O’Dell” of Tapestry, a nom de plume you probably did hear on CKXM Edmonton. That’s another story. One that included plagiarism, a settlement, and a “see you in the movies”.

  171. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: “Many don’t rhyme perfectly, I count that for and not against the value of putting them together here.”

    “In general, what’s been found by most data scientists around hockey is that offensive impacts(and forwards) are much easier to distill than defense, and even-strength play the same comparatively to special team situations, especially penalty kill. ”

    “Certain player types are bearishly valued: Penalty differentials are one of the five big parts of these equations, and players who you may perceive to be rated too low often have a combination of the above point about lack of 5v5 offense, and a bad penalty differential.”

    “Even-strength shot share impacts are heavily weighted when it comes to defensive contributions; more than shot quality impacts This is due to the beliefthat players cannot influence the save percentage of the goalies they play in front of.”

    Benning is a guy who we know has better macro shot share impacts, so this is a guy we know who is getting a boost.

    Manny’s model we know rewards guys who offensively outperform their xGF, but doesn’t (or sometimes inversely) reward guys who defensively outperform xGA.

    If a model makes you double-take, just use general rules about the strengths and weaknesses of it, and see if there’s consistency in players it underrates and overrates. I know Larsson and Benning are gonna have opposite-ended directional pulls just from what the model values before I even peruse their numbers, I’m not surprised by it.

    I look at the methodology guys are using /then/ grab their data, every time.

    Some of the language gets lost in translation, I do what I can.

    Another example, Dom Luscycyzn’s game score loves point production. His model doesn’t like Larsson either. Guys who do more than produce points as play drivers get underrated, Nino-Hall at forward, Tanev-Hjalmarsson at D, to steal Ian Tulloch’s distillation.

    You can see the weighting in action here

    Player Game Score = (0.75 * G) + (0.7 * A1) + (0.55 * A2) + (0.075 * SOG) + (0.05 * BLK) + (0.15 * PD) – (0.15 * PT) + (0.01 * FOW) – (0.01 * FOL) + (0.05 * CF) – (0.05 * CA) + (0.15 * GF) – (0.15* GA)

    Heavy on points.

    Larsson’s two seasons in 15-16 and 16-17 tell me models like those two aren’t going to like him because he’s a usage freak who can not get murdered in roles 95% of Dmen would get murdered in.

    The purpose of the models in the exercise isn’t really to dig deep on Edmonton’s D corps but to get a cursory glance at the other Pacific teams without having to do the level of research I feel was necessary to get the full scope of things.

    I am reasonably comfortable I have a more detailed understanding of the individual Dmen on Edmonton than what the model can tell me, not entirely so with the other 40+ guys in the division.

    The reason I’m not gonna give Larsson a bump in the numbers or say that he should get one is because then you have to give that to Tanev and every other guy in that player type, and then you also have to ding Burns et ceter et cetera.

    The other part is, especially with the GAR I was curious to see what the projected net of pairings were.

    Like I said earlier in the thread, I’m not super confident in my ability to project a /pairing/ because of issues weighting stuff, especially in pairings where there’s one guy who’s good and one guy who’s bad. The GAR gives you a little picture like hey, the guy who’s good adds eight and the guy who’s bad only takes away two, so they might be alright.

    That’s an interesting thing to note and come back on, to see if the model was right, wrong, and how often either.Orin what ways they were right and wrong. Then I take that and maybe I’m closer to projecting pairings than I am now.

    Thank you for taking the time to answer as completely as you did.

    You’re a good guy.

  172. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs: A couple of days ago you were telling me I really need to stop using Rel GF% and start using RelT GF%. Now it feels like I’m defending RelT while you’re all yeah but it has its problems, man. What the hell! Straight ninja move…

    I know right!?!?!

  173. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs: A couple of days ago you were telling me I really need to stop using Rel GF% and start using RelT GF%. Now it feels like I’m defending RelT while you’re all yeah but it has its problems, man. What the hell! Straight ninja move…

    It boils down to this:

    I think that RelT has more usage in it than straight on/off Rels.

    Both have their issues, especially with co-linearity.

    I think the on/off punishes the players who play in the toughest spots (high QoC with less than high QoT) more than RelT does.

    Neither Rel or RelT should be used without a lot of context to the results.

    After reading Tyler’s piece and now Matt Cane’s piece here: https://puckplusplus.com/2018/08/16/shift-ends-and-shot-rates/ even adding the context of WoodMoney TOI% still doesn’t give enough context (although some context is better than none)

    I’m particularly concerned about players like Benning seeing most of the shifts against top 6 players start OTF as that’s loading the dice.

    When examining Dmen I think its best to look at partners and not individuals as then you account for some of the co-linearity but also gives you more usage info. ie) in 16/17 when Benning played with Nurse, he was 3rd pair, but when he played with Sekera he was 2nd pair.

    Clear as mud right?

  174. meanashell11 says:

    jtblack: Guess I have been under a rock.We use the term @ work. Didn’t put 2+ 2 together

    SNAFU!

  175. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    LT & Melvis

    Have you guys heard of a music documentary “In the Shadow of Motown”?

    Someone I know was telling me about it but I haven’t seen it. Thought I’d ask as you both have such a vibrant interest in that direction.

  176. hunter1909 says:

    JimmyV1965: I wonder about the media pressure in Calgary. They don’t have nearly as many blogs as Toronto, Edmonton and Montreal. And damned if I can find a single Calgary Flames podcast. Which is really weird. Does anyone know of one?

    “The Eternally Gaylords of Hockey” Blogspot has been doing a roaring trade for ages. Check it out.

  177. hunter1909 says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour:
    LT & Melvis

    Have you guys heard of a music documentary “In the Shadow of Motown”?

    Someone I know was telling me about it but I haven’t seen it. Thought I’d ask as you both have such a vibrant interest in that direction.

    Melvis freaks me out. He either needs to write a book or else stop lying his face off.

  178. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    I said this a couple times in the previous threads, but looking at current UFA available, is there any chance the Oilers reach out to Sbisa, Emelin, Davidson?

    They are there so I’m asking and Ricki seems to suggest there may be some defensive value in Sbisa – at least I think that’s what Ricki is saying.

    Any other potential PTO possibilities?

  179. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    hunter1909: Melvis freaks me out. He either needs to write a book or else stop lying his face off.

    That’s hilarious! I thought it was just me! I feel like I did when I had to read Virginia Wolf or Joseph Conrad when I read his posts!

  180. Melvis says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    Yeah, probably. In fact, likely. I say probably because I’m lousy at remembering names, titles and such. Now I’ve got this Four Tops earworm going on. Just now, I had the song and lyrics happening in my head, but I had to look up “Four Tops”.

  181. Melvis says:

    hunter1909,

    I freak myself out. I can’t believe this shizz actually happened. A blind man scrambling into my car at a crosswalk in the middle of the night in the middle of nowhere. That’s the first paragraph of chapter one in some noir thriller featuring a 48 state serial killer in disguise – prior to the digital age and instant connectedness…because a murder in Chicago goes unnoticed in Dallas. And so forth.

    As for a book based on reality, I could string together a few chapters, but it wouldn’t amount to a hill of beans. Autobiographies only work with notables. I’m not that.

  182. Melvis says:

    It’s just story telling. Everybody has several in them. LT graces this blog with his stories all the time. They comprise a significant amount of the charm of this place.

  183. OriginalPouzar says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour:
    I said this a couple times in the previous threads, but looking at current UFA available, is there any chance the Oilers reach out to Sbisa, Emelin, Davidson?

    They are there so I’m asking and Ricki seems to suggest there may be some defensive value in Sbisa – at least I think that’s what Ricki is saying.

    Any other potential PTO possibilities?

    My preference is Enstrom – yes, injury is a risk but he played significant top 4 minutes last year – granted almost all of his minutes were with Byfuguelin but he was in the top 4. Of course, he’d be scheduled in our 3rd pairing but he would have the ability to move up in case of further injury – I don’t think that would be the case with Emelin, Davidson, Sbisa.

  184. v4ance says:

    Melvis,

    Dammit man! We don’t need notables! We’re Oiler fans used to settliing for less than… give us interesting and we’ll settle for barely literate!

    One of these days, I’ll have to write about the time I got Mick Jagger a bowl of rice for $100 RMB …. in China.

  185. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Melvis:
    hunter1909,

    I freak myself out. I can’t believe this shizz actually happened. A blind man scrambling into my car at a crosswalk in the middle of the night in the middle of nowhere. That’s the first paragraph of chapter one in some noir thriller featuring a 48 state serial killer in disguise –prior to the digital age and instant connectedness…because a murder in Chicagogoes unnoticed in Dallas. And so forth.

    As for a book based on reality, I could string together a few chapters, but it wouldn’t amount to a hill of beans. Autobiographies only work with notables. I’m not that.

    You are around these parts!

  186. Melvis says:

    Save it for VOR. He can tell a story AND bring some science and sports into it.

    In real life, I’m kinda quiet and reserved. You wouldn’t get much out of me, unless it had something to do with the topic du jour around the table in a restaurant or bar. I tend to listen a lot more than flap my gums.

  187. godot10 says:

    Melvis:
    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    Yeah, probably. In fact, likely. I say probably because I’m lousy at rememberingnames, titles and such. Now I’ve got this Four Tops earworm going on. Just now,I had the song and lyrics happening in my head, but I had to look up “Four Tops”.

    sugar pie, honey bunch
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXavZYeXEc0

  188. russ99 says:

    Any word on Nurse’s negotiations?

  189. elgruntus says:

    Melvis, thanks for the stories. Nothing better than the music + hockey marriage. Met Moe Berg at the St. Albert Farmer’s Market a few weeks ago. He’s an adult now, but still thinks Wayne Gretzky rocks

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