Is there a trade out there that makes sense?

The next few weeks are going to be interesting for the Oilers, as the “keep your powder dry” summer rolls into its third month. The around the edges method to address Andrej Sekera’s injury news is to check the waiver wire and possibly make a small trade in the days leading up to the season if it makes sense. Is it possible we see a panic deal? I don’t think so, that window has passed. What about a big deal that makes sense? Let’s have a look.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

TRADE PROPOSAL

That’s an interesting idea, and my friend Brian King (@kinger999, also known as PDO on the Oilogosphere and my friend in ‘Why did I marry a Roughrider fan?’ misery) sounds convincing on first blush. What would Edmonton be getting in return?

Lucic might get a new lease on life in Sunrise, and a year from now the deal might look good for Florida. If this offer is available, Peter Chiarelli has to pull the trigger based on cap and term alone. Lucic has a better possession number but we have to consider qual team and qual comp always. McGinn would be a solid fit for the Strome line (possibly with Rieder, ideally) and you’d have to use a younger hand on No. 2 left wing. My guesses would be names like Pontus Aberg, Jujhar Khaira, Drake Caggiula.

PUCK IQ

Some nice totals here, perhaps that convinces Florida the deal makes sense. From the Edmonton point of view, the fact they get out from under the last four years of the Lucic contract makes all statistical analysis moot. It does not matter.

WHAT ABOUT PETROVIC?

This would be an interesting addition. Petrovic is more of a shutdown type, he’s a big man (6.04, 206) and he brings several seasons of NHL experience. His numbers are an interesting comp for Matt Benning of the Oilers.

The difference offensively is power play, the possession numbers are close and the goal differential somewhat dependent on qual team. I wonder who would win the No. 2 RHD job?

OTHER NAMES

Kevin Bieksa’s name has been mentioned, I am always in favor of adding veteran defensemen but that would be a hard sell. Then again we embraced Zack Kassian. Smart people are mentioning Tobias Enstrom and the things I value (possession, rel, et cetera) are strong. You have to ponder who’s zooming who (‘bye, Aretha, love your songs) but it’s a beggar’s banquet on the fa market. Some of the names listed are signed to European teams, or at least I thought so (been on the road a lot this week). Daniel Winnik is a player I always wanted to view for a year on the town team.

 

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183 Responses to "Is there a trade out there that makes sense?"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    There is little doubt in my mind that Lucic will out produce McGinn this coming year but, in order to remove 4 years of term on that giant Lucic contract, and receive a youngish right shot D that can play in our 3rd pairing – done!

    It opens up real cap space for next year.

    Reduces the amount of LTIR cushion we have for this year but that’s fine.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Enstrom is my choice for cheap one-year D acquisition.

    He’s one of the few available that could actually play in the top 4 if required. He played in the top 4 almost all of last year – yes, almost all of his time was with Byfuglien but it was top 4.

  3. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    I’d even throw in a 3rd round pick to get that trade done! Petrovic is a poor man’s Larsson (that’s a compliment). He’s physical, and way more mobile than Gryba was. Decent clapper too.

    Nurse/Larsson
    Klefbom/Petrovic
    Russell/Benning

    Plus the cap space. I think it’s almost too good to be true honestly.

  4. Marchant_Rox says:

    Yes! Yes! A thousand times Yes! We win that trade even if it is just Lucic for McGinn straight up.

  5. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    FWIW Petrovic was THE most sheltered Dmen in the NHL in terms of OTF shifts vs Top 6 forwards. (via Tyler’s piece here: https://theathletic.com/468934/2018/08/15/dellow-how-mike-babcock-and-others-are-sheltering-defencemen-while-playing-them-against-top-opposition/?redirected=1)

    Tyler’s findings is making me think our WoodMoney data needs OTF context.

    I know G planned on adding OTF so if we ever get a new site up I’ll make sure OTF is there.

    McLellan sheltered Gryba in a similar way (OTF shifts) and he had one of the best DFF% vs Elite forwards on the team.

    Until we have OTF data I’m thinking of leaning towards focusing on results vs the “middle” tier of WoodMoney data as the coaches loading the dice for his players *should* be less prevalent.

  6. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    SPORTLOGiQ named the official provider of data for the SHL:

    http://sportlogiq.com/en/sportlogiq-named-official-provider-advanced-data-shl/

    As the SHL’s official data partner, SPORTLOGiQ will provide the league, its teams, broadcast partners, and sports betting partners access to its real-time advanced analytics. The SHL is the first league to take a bold approach to tech by infusing its advanced analytics system with artificial intelligence.

    I wonder if the fans will be able to get their hands on the data?

    This is pretty exciting stuff if the data is public.

    SPORTSLOGiQ is the outfit supplying ~4000 data points per game to many NHL team. I’m pretty sure the Oilers are among them.

  7. godot10 says:

    Blame Melvis!

    sugar pie, honey bunch
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXavZYeXEc0

  8. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    FWIW Petrovic was THE most sheltered Dmen in the NHL in terms of OTF shifts vs Top 6 forwards. (via Tyler’s piece here: https://theathletic.com/468934/2018/08/15/dellow-how-mike-babcock-and-others-are-sheltering-defencemen-while-playing-them-against-top-opposition/?redirected=1)

    Tyler’s findings is making me think our WoodMoney data needs OTF context.

    I know G planned on adding OTF so if we ever get a new site up I’ll make sure OTF is there.

    McLellan sheltered Gryba in a similar way (OTF shifts) and he had one of the best DFF% vs Elite forwards on the team.

    Until we have OTF data I’m thinking of leaning towards focusing on results vs the “middle” tier of WoodMoney data as the coaches loading the dice for his players *should* be less prevalent.

    Hey WOODGUY V2.0,
    Gryba/Petrovic comparison aside, what is your opinion on this trade suggestion? Bearing in mind that it is very hypothetical of course. Thanks.

  9. godot10 says:

    I liked the Rathole in theory, knowing that it existed, but in practice, Edmonton is much better without the Rathole.

  10. GBandQ says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Enstrom is my choice for cheap one-year D acquisition.

    He’s one of the few available that could actually play in the top 4 if required.He played in the top 4 almost all of last year – yes, almost all of his time was with Byfuglien but it was top 4.

    Wonder if both Enstrom AND Davidson could be had for cheap. Platoon vets in and out, that way you’re not rushing Bouchard or Bear. This team does NOT need the next man up on D to be a greenhorn.

  11. N64 says:

    godot10:
    I liked the Rathole in theory, knowing that it existed, but in practice, Edmonton is much better without the Rathole.

    Any given deluge there are a few places on the Whitemud that make an adequate substitute for car floating.

  12. Darth Tu says:

    GBandQ,

    Agreed, I like the idea of bringing in a cheap vet to take up some of the missing Sekera minutes.

    One other thought I had, and I’m not sure McLellan would ever go this route, is for the Oilers to use 7 D and 11 F. You’d give Bear or Bouchard powerplay minutes and some soft opposition/offensive zone starts, and run your more experienced D for the bulk of the game. That being said I’d rather both Bear and Bouchard had some AHL time before making the jump to the NHL.

    Klef – Larsson
    Nurse – Benning
    Gravel – Russell (although I’m not a giant fan of 2 lefties on the bottom pair).

    With regards to the 11 F, I guess we’d be in a situation where McDavid, Drai, or Nuge would double shift to make up the numbers for the 4th line.

    Like I say, I doubt McLellan goes this route as he never tried it last season when we could have had Auvitu in a similar role to the proposed Bear/Bouchard option.

  13. jm363561 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    FWIW Petrovic was THE most sheltered Dmen in the NHL in terms of OTF shifts vs Top 6 forwards. (via Tyler’s piece here: https://theathletic.com/468934/2018/08/15/dellow-how-mike-babcock-and-others-are-sheltering-defencemen-while-playing-them-against-top-opposition/?redirected=1)

    Tyler’s findings is making me think our WoodMoney data needs OTF context.

    I know G planned on adding OTF so if we ever get a new site up I’ll make sure OTF is there.

    McLellan sheltered Gryba in a similar way (OTF shifts) and he had one of the best DFF% vs Elite forwards on the team.

    Until we have OTF data I’m thinking of leaning towards focusing on results vs the “middle” tier of WoodMoney data as the coaches loading the dice for his players *should* be less prevalent.

    I really try my best to understand these great posts. I even clicked on the link and learned, in the limited text available to those too mean to subscribe to the Athletic, M Babcock shelters his D guys where necessary. Nowhere can I discover the meaning of OTF. The T and F are presumably The Fuck. What is the O please?

  14. godot10 says:

    jm363561: I really try my best to understand these great posts. I even clicked on the link and learned, in the limited text available to those too mean to subscribe to the Athletic,M Babcock shelters his D guys where necessary. Nowhere can I discover the meaning of OTF. The T and F are presumably The Fuck. What is the O please?

    On The Fly

  15. John Chambers says:

    jm363561,

    On-the-fly

    Edit: Orange Tangerine Fanta

  16. jm363561 says:

    godot10: On The Fly

    Many thanks Godot. Sorry to say I am a bit disappointed. I was expecting something more esoteric. Maybe OP has a 27th post on Brad Malone in progress to lift my spirits. Sigh.

  17. PDO says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    FWIW Petrovic was THE most sheltered Dmen in the NHL in terms of OTF shifts vs Top 6 forwards. (via Tyler’s piece here: https://theathletic.com/468934/2018/08/15/dellow-how-mike-babcock-and-others-are-sheltering-defencemen-while-playing-them-against-top-opposition/?redirected=1)

    Tyler’s findings is making me think our WoodMoney data needs OTF context.

    I know G planned on adding OTF so if we ever get a new site up I’ll make sure OTF is there.

    McLellan sheltered Gryba in a similar way (OTF shifts) and he had one of the best DFF% vs Elite forwards on the team.

    Until we have OTF data I’m thinking of leaning towards focusing on results vs the “middle” tier of WoodMoney data as the coaches loading the dice for his players *should* be less prevalent.

    Would you rate him slightly below Benning (who was also very sheltered IIRC) then? I figured him and Benning would be a good training camp battle for the #2 RHD and ensures that Bear starts in the AHL and Bouchard doesn’t see the NHL until at least October 2019.

    Stylistically I think I’d want to see Nurse/Larsson, Klefbom/Petrovic and Russell/Benning though I’m not sure Klefbom, as dreamy as he is, can play top 4 minutes with Petrovic as his partner and I believe Russell/Benning got absolutely caved last year (albeit as a top 4, not the bottom pairing).

  18. Lowetide says:

    PDO: Would you rate him slightly below Benning (who was also very sheltered IIRC) then?I figured him and Benning would be a good training camp battle for the #2 RHD and ensures that Bear starts in the AHL and Bouchard doesn’t see the NHL until at least October 2019.

    Stylistically I think I’d want to see Nurse/Larsson, Klefbom/Petrovic and Russell/Benning though I’m not sure Klefbom, as dreamy as he is, can play top 4 minutes with Petrovic as his partner and I believe Russell/Benning got absolutely caved last year (albeit as a top 4, not the bottom pairing).

    One of the things the smart people haven’t been able to do to my satisfaction is offer a reasonable solution to Klefbom’s wobble (beyond Larsson as his partner). He SHOULD be better even if his defending in the scoring zone is whorea-awful. I’d go Klefbom-Larsson, Nurse-Benning, Russell-Petrovic.

  19. PDO says:

    Lowetide: One of the things the smart people haven’t been able to do to my satisfaction is offer a reasonable solution to Klefbom’s wobble (beyond Larsson as his partner). He SHOULD be better even if his defending in the scoring zone is whorea-awful. I’d go Klefbom-Larsson, Nurse-Benning, Russell-Petrovic.

    I think the simplest answer is also the correct one in this case.

    Including the playoffs Oscar Klebom is still only at 267 NHL GP. Combine that with the shoulder injury he played through last year and I feel it’s safe to call the wobble a mixture of health and inexperience.

  20. JimmyV1965 says:

    Darth Tu:
    GBandQ,

    Agreed, I like the idea of bringing in a cheap vet to take up some of the missing Sekera minutes.

    One other thought I had, and I’m not sure McLellan would ever go this route, is for the Oilers to use 7 D and 11 F.You’d give Bear or Bouchard powerplay minutes and some soft opposition/offensive zone starts, and run your more experienced D for the bulk of the game.That being said I’d rather both Bear and Bouchard had some AHL time before making the jump to the NHL.

    Klef – Larsson
    Nurse – Benning
    Gravel – Russell (although I’m not a giant fan of 2 lefties on the bottom pair).

    With regards to the 11 F, I guess we’d be in a situation where McDavid, Drai, or Nuge would double shift to make up the numbers for the 4th line.

    Like I say, I doubt McLellan goes this route as he never tried it last season when we could have had Auvitu in a similar role to the proposed Bear/Bouchard option.

    I like the idea of double shifting key players. IMO the athletes today are in incredible shape and many are probably capable of playing 25, maybe even 27 minutes. Effortless skaters like McDavid and RNH, maybe even a guy like Drai, could have a massive impact if you spot them on the fourth line.

  21. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Enstrom is my choice for cheap one-year D acquisition.

    He’s one of the few available that could actually play in the top 4 if required.He played in the top 4 almost all of last year – yes, almost all of his time was with Byfuglien but it was top 4.

    I think Enstrom on a 1 year is ideal if he still wants to play in the NHL

  22. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: Hey WOODGUY V2.0,
    Gryba/Petrovic comparison aside, what is your opinion on this trade suggestion?Bearing in mind that it is very hypothetical of course.Thanks.

    Like you I’m willing to add to get it done.

    Getting out from under Lucic’s contract is a big deal

  23. Gerta Rauss says:

    GBandQ: Wonder if both Enstrom AND Davidson could be had for cheap. Platoon vets in and out, that way you’re not rushing Bouchard or Bear. This team does NOT need the next man up on D to be a greenhorn.

    I’m on board with this. I thought they needed another 7/8 vet (the same names we’re discussing now) before the Sekera injury, now they need a Sekera replacement and another depth D. I like Enstrom on a 1 year deal, and 1 of Franson/Sproul/McBain

  24. Gerta Rauss says:

    As for a Lucic deal, I’ve been pimping Justin Williams out of Carolina

  25. VOR says:

    Last night BornInAGretzkyJersey asked my opinion on letting Bouchard learn in the NHL.

    The one place in my life I am a real hard ass is in my coaching. Oh I am supportive and nurturing. But I am also incredibly demanding.

    Rule #1: The effort you show me will be reflected in the effort I put into you.

    Every year NHL teams violate this rule. Either they give at bats to a kid that hasn’t earned them or they send a kid to the A or back to junior who won a job fair and square. Performance needs to be fairly judged and rewarded or penalized appropriately.

    I suspect that both Evan Bouchard and Kailer Yamamoto are in the top 4 players at their position in training camp. I also suspect both young men will show up in excellent condition and work their butts off. In my view they’d stay the entire season unless they started to struggle. Then the best player at their position in the press box or the A would get the job.

    But there is a tendency to complicate this simple approach. Bonus implications, waiver status, preconceived ideas about the style of play you want from depth players, respect for veterans, cap management, shiny new toy, etc get in the way and lead to bad decisions. Teams can end up shooting themselves in the foot, some times spectacularly.

  26. Wolfie says:

    I know i’ll Get crucified but….. if I’m Chiarelli I’m in Ottawa’s ear all day and night to pry Karlsson out of there. Give them Nurse, Sekera (if that can be done) I’d even throw in Bouchard and this coming year a conditional first. Think something along the line s of the Pronger trade.

    It would be refreshing to see a bold move like that to unite one of the most dynamic defensemen of this era with the still rising star of McDavid…. you know I’ve been watching Coffey on Vintage Oilers…. jeebus.

  27. Wilde says:

    Can anybody recommend programming language learning resources?

    I’m not trying to use you guys as my google, just looking for personal anecdotes, opinions and experiences.

    I got extremely irritated at Dellow’s piece yesterday(day before?) because like I often do, I had so many further questions that I couldn’t get the answers to.

  28. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    John Chambers:
    jm363561,

    On-the-fly

    Edit: Orange Tangerine Fanta

    Oatmeal Tastes Funny

  29. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Enstrom is my choice for cheap one-year D acquisition.

    He’s one of the few available that could actually play in the top 4 if required.He played in the top 4 almost all of last year – yes, almost all of his time was with Byfuglien but it was top 4.

    Enstrom is the only guy out there with the wheels to compete in today’s NHL. PlanB is wait to see what comes up on the waiver wire when final cuts are made.

  30. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10:
    I liked the Rathole in theory, knowing that it existed, but in practice, Edmonton is much better without the Rathole.

    I white knuckled going through there with my 1980 Honda Civic.

    Can’t imagine driving my Nissan Titan through there.

  31. Jordan says:

    Wolfie:
    I know i’ll Get crucified but…..if I’m Chiarelli I’m in Ottawa’s ear all day and night to pry Karlsson out of there.Give them Nurse, Sekera (if that can be done) I’d even throw in Bouchard and this coming year a conditional first.Think something along the line s of the Pronger trade.

    It would be refreshing to see a bold move like that to unite one of the most dynamic defensemen of this era with the still rising star of McDavid….you know I’ve been watching Coffey on Vintage Oilers….jeebus.

    I don’t want to give up nurse for one year of Karlsson.

    However, playing in Ottawa next year will be akin to playing in Edmonton in 2010/11. Horraweful.

    Knowing that, I would consider negotiating a nurse Karlsson trade to use as leverage in a long-term nurse contract negotiation.

    Don’t like my offer Nurse? Fine. Deal with Melnyk. Have fun!

    There is a lot of risk in playing that game, but if it means nurse on 5Mx7-8 deal, then even in the face of captin McGrumpy… I’d strongly consider it.

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    PDO: Would you rate him slightly below Benning (who was also very sheltered IIRC) then?I figured him and Benning would be a good training camp battle for the #2 RHD and ensures that Bear starts in the AHL and Bouchard doesn’t see the NHL until at least October 2019.

    Stylistically I think I’d want to see Nurse/Larsson, Klefbom/Petrovic and Russell/Benning though I’m not sure Klefbom, as dreamy as he is, can play top 4 minutes with Petrovic as his partner and I believe Russell/Benning got absolutely caved last year (albeit as a top 4, not the bottom pairing).

    I’m not sure.

    Just had a quick look at each player’s entire WM and Petrovic is a positive RelDFF% for both Middle and Gritensity, while Benning is a negative RelDFF% for Middle and Gritensity

    Both played similar minutes in terms of deployment so this data point goes to Petrovic

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    Can anybody recommend programming language learning resources?

    I’m not trying to use you guys as my google, just looking for personal anecdotes, opinions and experiences.

    I got extremely irritated at Dellow’s piece yesterday(day before?) because like I often do, I had so many further questions that I couldn’t get the answers to.

    Did you ask Tyler those questions in the comments section of his piece?

    Most Athletic writers are active in their own comments sections.

    I imagine that’s a requirement by the Athletic, maybe LT can shed some light on that.

  34. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    Can anybody recommend programming language learning resources?

    I’m not trying to use you guys as my google, just looking for personal anecdotes, opinions and experiences.

    I got extremely irritated at Dellow’s piece yesterday(day before?) because like I often do, I had so many further questions that I couldn’t get the answers to.

    What questions do you have?

    I talk to Tyler occasionally and if you can’t get answers via the comments section I might be able to help.

  35. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    VOR,

    Thanks for following up, I think we’re on the same page philosophically and also see the same disconnect from this side of the TV. :/

  36. rbjork says:

    https://theathletic.com/468934/2018/08/15/dellow-how-mike-babcock-and-others-are-sheltering-defencemen-while-playing-them-against-top-opposition/?redirected=1

    When I first started reading this, I thought this was a lot of analysis to basically say that coaches start their top pairing against the other teams top 6. Which seemed like common sense to me.

    However, once I understood how this gives some insight into QOC results of lessor D against better competition the light went on.

    Also, I wish Dellow still wrote about the Oilers,…or even better still worked for them.

  37. bendelson says:

    Let’s see… add Petrovic, subtract Lucic and that toxic contract AND we don’t have to take on another beyond a one year deal for a middling winger? That’s a big YES from me.

  38. Georgexs says:

    Lucic for McGinn/Petrovic looks about right to you? Wow. We definitely come here to bury Lucic, don’t we?

    You might want to check your McGinn numbers.

  39. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: What questions do you have?

    I talk to Tyler occasionally and if you can’t get answers via the comments section I might be able to help.

    Woodguy v2.0: Did you ask Tyler those questions in the comments section of his piece?

    Most Athletic writers are active in their own comments sections.

    I imagine that’s a requirement by the Athletic, maybe LT can shed some light on that.

    Questions that are entirely unfair to expect an answer for in the timeframe that I want the answer.

    It was similar to what Matt Cane did in response to his piece, trying contextualise his findings

  40. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    Strongly disagree with this assessment. You can be better than your competition for a job but what matters most is long term development. Yamamoto is going to be better then a good chunk of our wingers. I would still rather have him fill nets with puck in Ahl than be a roster fill in the NHL. I’m a very firm believer in scoring players scoring a lot in their development. Put him in AHL where he is guaranteed to score a lot and when competition is too easy for him bring him up.
    It is so incredibly rare for D outside of top 3 picks to go straight to the NHL because there is just so much to learn for these players.
    In my mind if both these players are on the roster we don’t care about their development

  41. Wilde says:

    Georgexs:
    Lucic for McGinn/Petrovic looks about right to you? Wow. We definitely come here to bury Lucic, don’t we?

    You might want to check your McGinn numbers.

    The key number is 3 333 333 x 1.

    I wouldn’t make the trade if I was planning on making the playoffs this year though, which is the stated goal of the organisation.

    Maybe I’m underrating Petrovic with that assessment.

  42. PDO says:

    Georgexs:
    Lucic for McGinn/Petrovic looks about right to you? Wow. We definitely come here to bury Lucic, don’t we?

    You might want to check your McGinn numbers.

    I believe Lucic is very underrated at this point. I think he can help the PP as a net front and I think he’s fine playing tough minutes. 50 points isn’t unreasonable production.

    That said, he has *5* more years left. Trading Lucic for two pending UFA’s that include someone who comes in and is likely your 2nd best RHD isn’t exactly peanuts.

    It allows flexibility next off season while improving the back end. The wings are certainly weaker with McGinn instead of Lucic but how much?

    RNH-McDavid-Yamo
    Reider-Draisatl-Puljujarvi
    Khaira-Strome-McGinn
    Caggiula-Brodziak-Kassian

    Klef-Petrovic
    Nurse-Larsson
    Russell-Benning

    They’d also have around $5,000,000 in LTIR relief. If one of Yamo or Puljujarvi aren’t ready perhaps you could convince Rick Nash to play one season with 97?

    I think that’s a significantly better roster than today’s with Lucic and nobody to play RHD after Larsson & Benning.

  43. PDO says:

    Wilde: The key number is 3 333 333 x 1.

    I wouldn’t make the trade if I was planning on making the playoffs this year though, which is the stated goal of the organisation.

    Maybe I’m underrating Petrovic with that assessment.

    I’m relatively confident Petrovic would be the Oilers 2nd best RHD.

  44. Georgexs says:

    Wilde:
    Can anybody recommend programming language learning resources?

    I’m not trying to use you guys as my google, just looking for personal anecdotes, opinions and experiences.

    I got extremely irritated at Dellow’s piece yesterday(day before?) because like I often do, I had so many further questions that I couldn’t get the answers to.

    Trying to follow that argument makes me feel queasy. He’s just not fluent with numbers.

    I have the shift data off of nhl.com. I might have a look.

    As for the programming question, I mostly use python for data stuff, sometimes R.

    For data analysis, here’s a nice resource on R:

    http://r4ds.had.co.nz/introduction.html

    And here’s a good one for Python:

    http://wesmckinney.com/pages/book.html

    If you want a language-specific resource for Python, try Google’s coure:

    https://developers.google.com/edu/python/

    and/or this book:

    https://nostarch.com/pythoncrashcourse

  45. Lowetide says:

    Georgexs:
    Lucic for McGinn/Petrovic looks about right to you? Wow. We definitely come here to bury Lucic, don’t we?

    You might want to check your McGinn numbers.

    McGinn numbers are mostly here:
    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=y&v=p&playerid=8473465

    Is there something specific you have identified as incorrect?

  46. Georgexs says:

    Lowetide: McGinn numbers are mostly here:
    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=y&v=p&playerid=8473465

    Is there something specific you have identified as incorrect?

    Sorry, LT.

    76-13-16-29 0.38

    According to nhl.com.

  47. PDO says:

    Georgexs: Sorry, LT.

    76-13-16-29 0.38

    According to nhl.com.

    Are 3 assists over 82 games the breaking point here or something?

  48. Lowetide says:

    Georgexs: Sorry, LT.

    76-13-16-29 0.38

    According to nhl.com.

    TY!

  49. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide: One of the things the smart people haven’t been able to do to my satisfaction is offer a reasonable solution to Klefbom’s wobble (beyond Larsson as his partner). He SHOULD be better even if his defending in the scoring zone is whorea-awful. I’d go Klefbom-Larsson, Nurse-Benning, Russell-Petrovic.

    Almost anything that gets Russell off RD is likely a good thing.

  50. Wilde says:

    Georgexs: Trying to follow that argument makes me feel queasy. He’s just not fluent with numbers.

    I have the shift data off of nhl.com. I might have a look.

    As for the programming question, I mostly use python for data stuff, sometimes R.

    For data analysis, here’s a nice resource on R:

    http://r4ds.had.co.nz/introduction.html

    And here’s a good one for Python:

    http://wesmckinney.com/pages/book.html

    If you want a language-specific resource for Python, try Google’s coure:

    https://developers.google.com/edu/python/

    and/or this book:

    https://nostarch.com/pythoncrashcourse

    Thank you, I was hoping you’d chime in because I had you in mind when I asked the question.

    On Tyler, I know a lot of people here have a lot of respect for him, but when reading him I sometimes feel the sensation of being led through a tunnel, when I’d rather see the sky or the stars so I know which way I’m going.

    I’ve got time always for renegades, though, and I like some stuff he’s done (like the Steve Simmons bout) and I think he’s important to the discourse, and would be even if he was 100% wrong about everything all the time (or vice-versa) because most of the best work on the internet is done with the intent to prove someone wrong.

  51. Georgexs says:

    PDO: Are 3 assists over 82 games the breaking point here or something?

    Wait, you’re the PDO that LT referred to in his post. I’m asleep at the wheel here.

    My apologies. I’ll get my thinking hat on.

    I’ll inform you in advance that I’m a Lucic fan. I feel I’m emotionally invested in the guy.

  52. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Why does Florida do this deal?

    They have Huberdeau, Dadonov, Hoffman, Tippett, Bjugstad, Sceviour, Vatrano, Mamin and Malgin on the wings, plus a glut of Centers with Barkov, Trocheck, Bergstrom, McCann.

    Florida gives up a youngish Dman too.

    For an aging toxic contract just to get out of one year of McGinn.

    Seems like Tallon would have to sniff the glue he was sniffing during the Vegas expansion process for this to ever happen.

  53. Lowetide says:

    Georgexs: Wait, you’re the PDO that LT referred to in his post. I’m asleep at the wheel here.

    My apologies. I’ll get my thinking hat on.

    I’ll inform you in advance that I’m a Lucic fan. I feel I’m emotionally invested in the guy.

    I too am a fan of Milan Lucic.

  54. frjohnk says:

    If Lucic wants out, then maybe that trade works out.

    I do think Lucic bounces back somewhat and the fact that we only have 3 top 6 forwards, trading one of the guys that could be a good complimentary piece in the top 6 might not be a good idea.

    But then again that contract….

  55. jtblack says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Why does Florida do this deal?

    They have Huberdeau, Dadonov, Hoffman, Tippett, Bjugstad, Sceviour, Vatrano, Mamin and Malgin on the wings, plus a glut of Centers with Barkov, Trocheck, Bergstrom, McCann.

    Florida gives up a youngish Dman too.

    For an aging toxic contract just to get out of one year of McGinn.

    Seems like Tallon would have to sniff the glue he was sniffing during the Vegas expansion process for this to ever happen.

    Exactly. Florida won’t do this deal.

    Summer creates boredom for Oilers Nation. This is rumor #225 since June 1st.

  56. trencan says:

    I like more the idea of Lucic plus for Faulk as RonnieB mentioned yesterday.

  57. GBandQ says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I white knuckled going through there with my 1980 Honda Civic.

    Can’t imagine driving my Nissan Titan through there.

    Try riding your bike thru there!

  58. --hudson-- says:

    Wilde:
    Can anybody recommend programming language learning resources?

    I’m not trying to use you guys as my google, just looking for personal anecdotes, opinions and experiences.

    I got extremely irritated at Dellow’s piece yesterday(day before?) because like I often do, I had so many further questions that I couldn’t get the answers to.

    hackr.io is a great resource for finding tutorials paid or free to learn. Most people learning to program now are using python. The link Georges provided are quite good. The official python tutorial is great. A lot of people get started with “Automate the Boring Stuff” which is also free.

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs:
    Lucic for McGinn/Petrovic looks about right to you? Wow. We definitely come here to bury Lucic, don’t we?

    You might want to check your McGinn numbers.

    There is significant value not having Lucic on the roster at $6M as he declines.

  60. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: I too am a fan of Milan Lucic.

    How many times have we been forced to hear management bleat: “He’s a Lucic type player”

    Personally I’d prefer to watch them lose without getting beaten to a pulp by the opposition and Lucic scares the daylights out of >95% of NHLers.

  61. SwedishPoster says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    SPORTLOGiQ named the official provider of data for the SHL:

    http://sportlogiq.com/en/sportlogiq-named-official-provider-advanced-data-shl/

    As the SHL’s official data partner, SPORTLOGiQ will provide the league, its teams, broadcast partners, and sports betting partners access to its real-time advanced analytics. The SHL is the first league to take a bold approach to tech by infusing its advanced analytics system with artificial intelligence.

    I wonder if the fans will be able to get their hands on the data?

    This is pretty exciting stuff if the data is public.

    SPORTSLOGiQ is the outfit supplying ~4000 data points per game to many NHL team.I’m pretty sure the Oilers are among them.

    In swedish media they’ve said that the info will be available to the league, all teams and sports media, which I did interpret as all media outlets, not just the broadcasting company. I assume that means at least some of the info will be there for the public. Hopefully all of it, Sweden is fairly transparent in general so I doubt there will be too much secrecy unless sportslogiq demands it.

    There isn’t much hype around analytics in swedish hockey, only a handful of guys publishing stuff and usually just bits and pieces without much of a following, so these news kind of came and went over here. Maybe the hype builds if sportlogiq’s numbers are made public but at this point there’s not a lot of interest outside of maybe the betting crowd.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    I’d even throw in a 3rd round pick to get that trade done!Petrovic is a poor man’s Larsson (that’s a compliment).He’s physical, and way more mobile than Gryba was.Decent clapper too.

    Nurse/Larsson
    Klefbom/Petrovic
    Russell/Benning

    Plus the cap space.I think it’s almost too good to be true honestly.

    Although no guarantee that Benning will be able to run with the opportunity, I would have him pencilled in at 2RD and Petrovic at 3RD, for sure.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    GBandQ: Wonder if both Enstrom AND Davidson could be had for cheap. Platoon vets in and out, that way you’re not rushing Bouchard or Bear. This team does NOT need the next man up on D to be a greenhorn.

    That’s OK, they don’t need to rush the youngsters, we’ve got Lowe and Stanton…… wait, you mean that doesn’t provide you comfort?

  64. Wilde says:

    Lowetide: I too am a fan of Milan Lucic.

    Name three of his albums.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu:
    GBandQ,

    Agreed, I like the idea of bringing in a cheap vet to take up some of the missing Sekera minutes.

    One other thought I had, and I’m not sure McLellan would ever go this route, is for the Oilers to use 7 D and 11 F.You’d give Bear or Bouchard powerplay minutes and some soft opposition/offensive zone starts, and run your more experienced D for the bulk of the game.That being said I’d rather both Bear and Bouchard had some AHL time before making the jump to the NHL.

    Klef – Larsson
    Nurse – Benning
    Gravel – Russell (although I’m not a giant fan of 2 lefties on the bottom pair).

    With regards to the 11 F, I guess we’d be in a situation where McDavid, Drai, or Nuge would double shift to make up the numbers for the 4th line.

    Like I say, I doubt McLellan goes this route as he never tried it last season when we could have had Auvitu in a similar role to the proposed Bear/Bouchard option.

    I agree with your premise here and have also thought about the 7D/11F when Bouchard is in the lineup at the beginning of the year – they could spot him in for home games and give him very sheltered even strength minutes and some PP time.

    The added bonus is some extra even strength ice for Drai and McDavid – although McDavid plays ALOT at evens to start with – too much in my mind sometimes.

    Lets not forget that, if you are looking for AHL time prior to Bouchard being in the NHL, well, he can’t even start that AHL time until next season.

    He very well may need some AHL time and the fan-base will likely freak out, Puljujarvi style, again.

  66. geowal says:

    hunter1909: How many times have we been forced to hear management bleat: “He’s a Lucic type player”

    Personally I’d prefer to watch them lose without getting beaten to a pulp by the opposition and Lucic scares the daylights out of >95% of NHLers.

    What if they get beaten to a pulp while winning?

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    PDO: I believe Lucic is very underrated at this point.I think he can help the PP as a net front and I think he’s fine playing tough minutes.50 points isn’t unreasonable production.

    Honest question, what makes you think he can help the PP? Aside from 2016/17 (where he set career highs in every PP category, literally doubling his previous career highs), he’s never been a PP producer.

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    SwedishPoster: In swedish media they’ve said that the info will be available to the league, all teams and sports media, which I did interpret as all media outlets, not just the broadcasting company. I assume that means at least some of the info will be there for the public. Hopefully all of it, Sweden is fairly transparent in general so I doubt there will be too much secrecy unless sportslogiq demands it.

    There isn’t much hype around analytics in swedish hockey, only a handful of guys publishing stuff and usually just bits and pieces without much of a following, so these news kind of came and went over here. Maybe the hype builds if sportlogiq’s numbers are made public but at this point there’s not a lot of interest outside of maybe the betting crowd.

    Thanks for chiming in SP

  69. Georgexs says:

    PDO: I believe Lucic is very underrated at this point.I think he can help the PP as a net front and I think he’s fine playing tough minutes.50 points isn’t unreasonable production.

    That said, he has *5* more years left.Trading Lucic for two pending UFA’s that include someone who comes in and is likely your 2nd best RHD isn’t exactly peanuts.

    It allows flexibility next off season while improving the back end.The wings are certainly weaker with McGinn instead of Lucic but how much?

    RNH-McDavid-Yamo
    Reider-Draisatl-Puljujarvi
    Khaira-Strome-McGinn
    Caggiula-Brodziak-Kassian

    Klef-Petrovic
    Nurse-Larsson
    Russell-Benning

    They’d also have around $5,000,000 in LTIR relief.If one of Yamo or Puljujarvi aren’t ready perhaps you could convince Rick Nash to play one season with 97?

    I think that’s a significantly better roster than today’s with Lucic and nobody to play RHD after Larsson & Benning.

    1. The contract.

    – at the time it was offered, PC could’ve asked his analytics people to give him a reasonable expectation for Lucic’s offense over the next 7 years given his age and offense to that point

    – the analytics team could’ve used k-NN to find players with similar stats to Lucic based on his age and then projected his points per game based on the median PPG for historical players at each age

    – here’s what I would’ve estimated (assuming Lucic played the length of the contract):

    Age, Points per game

    28, .67
    29, .59
    30, .55
    31, .52
    32, .48
    33, .51
    34, .42

    – So after 3 seasons, you’d expect him to produce borderline second line scoring. Was that worth 7×6? No. But PC isn’t the first manager to sacrifice the long term to address his perceived needs in the short term. GM’s shouldn’t pay premium for players’ least productive years. But they do.

    – The contract was problematic at the outset. Now, after a just fine 28-year-old season at 0.61 PPG, we have a 29-year-old season at 0.41. Which means the projections based on nearest neighbor become more pessimistic and less appealing to counterparties. No one who perceives that contract to be toxic would take it on without sending something toxic back. And, if they didn’t perceive it to be toxic, they’d still send something toxic back… because that’s what you do.

    – Lucic is also owed 7 and 6 actual salary over the next two seasons. It’s a high price to pay for a perceived salvage operation. Preferable for the other side to wait a couple of seasons on the dollars alone.

    2. The proposed trade.

    – Using the same methodology as above, based on McGinn’s age and stats, I’d guess he’d probably be a 0.3 PPG player next season.

    – 0.3 PPG players playing 13.5 minutes a night don’t help teams. They go out there and lose hockey games

    – Petrovic has never played a full season. Last Season, FLA dropped him to 14:39 in 67 games after trying him at 18:09 per game the season before. That was his audition for a larger role and apparently he failed it. That’s usually not a good sign for a defenseman. Projecting him as our potential second best RHD is a stretch, given Benning and Russell both played over 17 minutes last season.

    – Seeing the team better with those two players in the lineup and Rieder taking Lucic’s place in the top 6 is… I don’t know what it is… no, wait, I do know, it’s saying CMD makes the playoffs once in his first four years in the League, despite 3 Art Ross wins. He seems like a really wonderful kid, but he’d have to be an angel to not lose faith with that. Especially after he promised his adopted town that the team would be back.

    3. What’s wrong with Lucic?

    – There was nothing wrong with Lucic in Year 1. He put up his career average in PPG. The team played winning hockey with him on the ice. People freaked out over his 5v5 primary points per 60. OMG, Lucic is in decline! They shouldn’t have. It’s not the number to look at for forwards.

    – There was nothing wrong with Lucic in Year 2 up to the Christmas break. He was on track for another reliable 0.6 PPG season (0.71) and the team was again winning with him on the ice (28-17).

    – What happened after Christmas was not good. The question is, is that stretch representative? People who say this is a 2-year trend are, again, looking at the wrong numbers. This is a half season meltdown, some awful combination of luck and loss of confidence. A flaming ball of turd that got rolling and couldn’t be stopped.

    – I think you believe that that stretch isn’t representative of the player. I believe that too. I want to take all of my belief, put it in a little box and smuggle it into Lucic’s locker so he can feel the belief vibes every day on the job. He has been a unique player in this League, ultra tough, smart, and deceptively skilled. He should get his mojo back and show this “ye of little faith” town as much.

  70. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    How do you like that ride. I’ve been shopping and Nissan isn’t on my list after my dad’s endless problems with a lemon Maxima.

    I might wait until ’19 for the larger displacement F-150’s Ecoboost, although there’s nothing wrong within the current options.

    And The Ram Eco diesel is also on my tryout list. I always liked my older Dodge farm pickups. The current Chevy doesn’t interest me The flared fenders just look like a last minute design decision tacky add on,imo. Nor am I sure about gas guzzling V8’s. There’s nothing else in the Tundra line.

    I’ll be pulling an RV around North America for the next few years.

  71. Lowetide says:

    Wilde: Name three of his albums.

    Nina, Pinta and Santa Maria.

  72. hunter1909 says:

    geowal: What if they get beaten to a pulp while winning?

    Great question. Colossal question.

  73. Melvis says:

    godot10,

    I walked into a confectionary earlier today, kinda singing the earworm under my breath. The counter woman finished off with, “you know that I love you”

    Made my day.

  74. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: Nina, Pinta and Santa Maria.

    The agents of orange, the priests of Hiroshima,
    The cost of my desire…Sleep Now In The Fire!

  75. hunter1909 says:

    Miraculously managed to avoid alcohol last night.

    edit: Just hopped off of “the Wagon”

  76. Melvis says:

    Chain chain chain,
    chain of fools…

    I loved Aretha. It’s enough to make you weep.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJOX5tCd1qs&frags=pl%2Cwn

  77. hunter1909 says:

    Since checking out Bouchard’s obvious maturity over say, RNH physically it’s not such a stretch to predict he blows the doors off the competition at Training Camp, locking down a regular position with his superior skill at getting out of his own end of the rink.

    5th overall pick Scott Stevens arrived at Washington’s Training camp at 18, and did the exact same thing.

  78. hunter1909 says:

    Melvis,

    Please post more of your incredible experiences during that golden era 1970-76 which was before my time.

    Before they started to charge 50 cents for orange juice.

  79. unca miltie says:

    Melvis:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    How do you like that ride. I’ve been shopping and Nissan isn’t on my list after my dad’s endless problems with a lemon Maxima.
    not sure it this is appropriate here. so LT i will not be offended if you remove this. I have a 2018 F150- deisel here available for overnight test drives so you can see how well it tows, i think our website is attached to my name here for contact info.

    I might wait until ’19 for the larger displacement F-150’s Ecoboost,although there’s nothingwrong within the current options.

    And The Ram Eco diesel is also on my tryout list. I always liked my older Dodge farm pickups. The current Chevy doesn’t interest me The flared fenders just look like a last minute design decision tacky add on,imo. Nor am I sure about gas guzzling V8’s. There’s nothing else in the Tundra line.

    I’ll be pulling an RV around North America for the next few years.

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    – I think you believe that that stretch isn’t representative of the player. I believe that too. I want to take all of my belief, put it in a little box and smuggle it into Lucic’s locker so he can feel the belief vibes every day on the job. He has been a unique player in this League, ultra tough, smart, and deceptively skilled. He should get his mojo back and show this “ye of little faith” town as much.

    I too believe that Jan-Apr Lucic is not representative and *know* he’ll bounce back next to some extent.

    The big issue is the 4 years after next year.

    Father Time is undefeated and physical players usually hit the wall before the amount of game Lucic has played, but he started in the NHL much earlier than most players with his hit count and he scores more than most players than his hit count so we can expect maybe 1 or 2 more years at “not awful” production.

    We do know “awful” is coming and Jan-Apr was a preview that should scare the heebie-jeebies out of the org.

    Moving him while he has value is the smart play.

  81. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    How do you like that ride. I’ve been shopping and Nissan isn’t on my list after my dad’s endless problems with a lemon Maxima.

    I might wait until ’19 for the larger displacement F-150’s Ecoboost,although there’s nothingwrong within the current options.

    And The Ram Eco diesel is also on my tryout list. I always liked my older Dodge farm pickups. The current Chevy doesn’t interest me The flared fenders just look like a last minute design decision tacky add on,imo. Nor am I sure about gas guzzling V8’s. There’s nothing else in the Tundra line.

    I’ll be pulling an RV around North America for the next few years.

    I drive a 2006.

    Spending money on vehicles is anathema to me so I buy used and drive them into the ground.

    That said, Titan’s are notorious gas hogs and given the size of the engine it’s something they really can’t fix.

    I barely get 400km on 80L. No shit.

    That said, it drives like a car and has power to spare, but you pay for the privilege.

    I’ve been eyeing Ford F150 given their great mileage and the sheer volume of them on the used market drives the price down.

    Some of my ethnic heritage is Scottish. Can you tell?

  82. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Moving him while he has value is the smart play.

    Right now he has no value.

    It would be right down there with the Eberle “trade”

  83. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909:
    Since checking out Bouchard’s obvious maturity over say, RNH physically it’s not such a stretch to predict he blows the doors off the competition at Training Camp, locking down a regular position with his superior skill at getting out of his own end of the rink.

    5th overall pick Scott Stevens arrived at Washington’s Training camp at 18, and did the exact same thing.

    You’re old enough to know the folly of betting on teenaged Dmen from the CHL to be NHL ready.

  84. unca miltie says:

    LT did you remove my post or did I not post anything and just quote Melvis. Sadly Old age is catching up to me..

  85. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis,

    Just noticed you’re pulling a trailer.

    One reason I’m looking at F150 is because most of my customers who have them pull trailers.

    When they are not pulling the truck is easy on the gas.

    Titans pull trailers great, but they are always tough on gas.

  86. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909: Right now he has no value.

    It would be right down there with the Eberle “trade”

    I think he has value today.

    NHL GM’s memories are long.

  87. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    The big issue is the 4 years after next year.

    Father Time is undefeated and physical players usually hit the wall before the amount of game Lucic has played,but he started in the NHL much earlier than most players with his hit count and he scores more than most players than his hit count so we can expect maybe 1 or 2 more years at “not awful” production.

    Do physical players actually hit the wall earlier than non-physical players?

    I see people say it all the time but I have never seen any evidence.

    When you look at the all time games played list, there are all kinds of physical SOBs in the top twenty.

    Howe, Messier, Chelios, Stevens, Doan, Shanahan, Iginla. Andreychuk made his living getting pummeled in front of the net.

    If physical players had noticeably shorter peaks/careers than non-physical players they shouldn’t be so well represented in that list. They really shouldn’t be there at all.

  88. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’m not exactly a spendthrift either. Oth, I’m not a cheapskate either. I tend to abide to the frugality thing.

    I’ve driven a lot of different classics in the past. Now the ground up concourse models are out of my price range, unless I’m willing to sell a quarter of land. Now way man.

    I drive what ever SUV year round. The summer rides tend to be beemers a farm friend restores as a winter hobby. Their under 25k and I driven a couple of those into the ground. Unless he gets his hands on a 2002. That one’s a keeper.

    Thanks for the info. At one time, the Nissan shop really pissed me off with the tranny, and rear end costs nonsense. Now I’m convinced. No Nissan for me.

  89. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You’re old enough to know the folly of betting on teenaged Dmen from the CHL to be NHL ready.

    Let me see. If I go over 40 years of data, I should be able to find a player that reinforces my beliefs.

  90. Melvis says:

    hunter1909,

    Sure, as they occur to me after a couple of pops. I tend to write these things off the top of my head. After posting, the writing just embarrasses me.

    Usually, when wrting professionally, I edit and re-edit endlessly. That process tends to preclude posting. At that point, they come across as ego trips.

    Short story. Get drunk and write. Lick wounds;-)

  91. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    – I think you believe that that stretch isn’t representative of the player. I believe that too. I want to take all of my belief, put it in a little box and smuggle it into Lucic’s locker so he can feel the belief vibes every day on the job. He has been a unique player in this League, ultra tough, smart, and deceptively skilled. He should get his mojo back and show this “ye of little faith” town as much.

    I too believe that Jan-Apr Lucic is not representative and *know* he’ll bounce back next to some extent.

    The big issue is the 4 years after next year.

    Father Time is undefeated and physical players usually hit the wall before the amount of game Lucic has played, but he started in the NHL much earlier than most players with his hit count and he scores more than most players than his hit count so we can expect maybe 1 or 2 more years at “not awful” production.

    We do know “awful” is coming and Jan-Apr was a preview that should scare the heebie-jeebies out of the org.

    Moving him while he has value is the smart play.

    I was so pumped when I read “I too believe…” But then I kept reading…

    Jan-Apr is “not representative” but it “was a preview”;

    “physical players usually hit the wall before the amount of game Lucic has played…” What happens to players who’ve played the amount of games Lucic has played? Do they disappear overnight? What’s a physical player? Shane Doan? Bobby Holik? Ryan Smyth? Jarome Iginla? Jason Arnott? Mats Sundin? Martin Gelinas? They’re sort of in the category of players who’ve played as many games as Lucic in as many seasons.

    “we can expect maybe 1 or 2 more years at “not awful” production.” Well, I showed you what I’d expect. It’s well above “not awful” because awful is in the 0.3 or below region and not awful is south of 0.4. Don’t know how you came up with “what we can expect” but if you’re expecting “not awful”, for 1 or 2 more years, you’re expecting around what he did last season. You sure you believe he’s going to “bounce back”?

    And, finally, “Moving him while he has value is the smart play.”

    These are such strange things for a member of the “I too believe” Lucic fan club to say, WG. I’m starting to wonder.

  92. Melvis says:

    Man, this one’s just the cat’s ass…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diwF1-xJwZM&frags=pl%2Cwn

  93. geowal says:

    hunter1909: Great question. Colossal question.

    NBTAPELPH – not beaten to a pulp exciting last place hockey(tm) ?

  94. Lowetide says:

    unca miltie:
    LT did you remove my post or did I not post anything and just quote Melvis.Sadly Old age is catching up to me..

    I did not remove a post, no.

  95. unca miltie says:

    Lowetide,

    thanks, I tried to post something about trucks to Melvis but guess I messed up the post.

  96. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You’re old enough to know the folly of betting on teenaged Dmen from the CHL to be NHL ready.

    I’m an Oilers fan.

  97. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think he has value today.

    NHL GM’s memories are long.

    Yes, but given the level of vitriol Lucic receives around Lowetide, this skews my view since I no longer read the MSM since they started counting articles read etc.

    To my mind if I’m the GM Lucic goes nowhere this season, save for an overpayment from some idiot on the other end of the telephone.

    He’s overpaid, but not so much as some of Chiarelli’s beauties Draisaitl cough cough

    Nurse, I don’t get the hype last season. He’s no better than a 3-4 million player, period. Screw potential, as in where did it get the Oilers with the Hall cluster lol

  98. hunter1909 says:

    geowal: NBTAPELPH – not beaten to a pulp exciting last place hockey(tm) ?

    I dunno. Some of us fans have no understanding re fighting, violence etc(something built into the NHL).

    The last team that tried hiding behind the refs was the despicable diving Canucks who the refs literally gave Boston the green light to destroy.

  99. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I white knuckled going through there with my 1980 Honda Civic.

    Can’t imagine driving my Nissan Titan through there.

    Try a 74 Parisienne. That car sure made oncoming traffic share the tunnel, and that Whitemud shortcut to the freeway. I saw some great big eyeballs when that huge chrome bumper came into their view.

  100. hunter1909 says:

    Melvis:
    hunter1909,

    Sure, as they occur to me after a couple of pops. I tend to write these things off the top of my head. After posting,the writingjust embarrasses me.

    Usually, when wrting professionally, I edit and re-edit endlessly. That process tends to preclude posting. At that point, they come across as ego trips.

    Short story. Get drunk and write. Lick wounds;-)

    I’m a fan of that Lynyrd Skynyrd gig in Oakland in 1977 as seen on Youtube.

  101. godot10 says:

    Wilde: The key number is 3 333 333 x 1.

    I wouldn’t make the trade if I was planning on making the playoffs this year though, which is the stated goal of the organisation.

    Maybe I’m underrating Petrovic with that assessment.

    Lucic doesn’t help if making the playoffs is the goal. Petrovic is a serviceable depth defenseman. That helps towards making the playoffs. The right level of competition for Benning and Bouchard.

  102. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: Do physical players actually hit the wall earlier than non-physical players?

    I see people say it all the time but I have never seen any evidence.

    When you look at the all time games played list, there are all kinds of physical SOBs in the top twenty.

    Howe, Messier, Chelios, Stevens, Doan, Shanahan, Iginla. Andreychuk made his living getting pummeled in front of the net.

    If physical players had noticeably shorter peaks/careers than non-physical players they shouldn’t be so well represented in that list. They really shouldn’t be there at all.

    That’s a very good question and one I tried to address mentioning Lucic’s points.

    The players you mentioned scored at elite rates during their prime. (Except Doan)

    Lucic never scored at elite rates so you cannot expect their acing curves to be his.

    That said, he scores more than your average hit happy forward so you can expect his cliff to come later than theirs.

    When he hits the cliff is not a certainty, but him hitting the cliff with years left on his contract is a certainty.

    I’ll grab some comparable and report back this weekend.

  103. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: Let me see.If I go over 40 years of data, I should be able to find a player that reinforces my beliefs.

    Exactly

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’m not exactly a spendthrift either. Oth, I’m not a cheapskate either. I tend to abide to the frugality thing.

    I’ve driven a lot of different classics in the past. Now the ground up concourse models are out of my price range, unless I’m willing to sell a quarter of land. Now way man.

    I drive what ever SUV year round. The summer rides tend to be beemers a farm friend restores as a winter hobby. Their under 25kand I driven a couple of those intothe ground. Unless he gets his hands on a 2002. That one’s a keeper.

    Thanks for the info. At one time, the Nissan shop really pissed me off with the tranny, and rear end costs nonsense. Now I’m convinced. No Nissan for me.

    Nissan’s service pissed me off too.

    I paid $1500 to replace two chips and when they were recalled it was like pulling teeth to get my money back.

  105. Scungilli Slushy says:

    trencan:
    I like more the idea of Lucic plus for Faulk as RonnieB mentioned yesterday.

    The actual cash aspect for me makes it straight up. Although I don’t think a defensively weak D man brings as much as Lucic.

    Gulatzan talked about how Luc is viewed by other teams, and it is in a significant way. I think they will make the playoffs, and if they do and Lucic is traded the tone will become ‘how come the Oilers are getting pushed around again ‘ when players like Manson Tkachuk et al feel completely free to amp up the stupid.

    Assuming Lucic does what he got his contract for.

  106. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: The actual cash aspect for me makes it straight up. Although I don’t think a defensively weak D man brings as much as Lucic.

    Gulatzan talked about how Luc is viewed by other teams, and it is in a significant way. I think they will make the playoffs, and if they do and Lucic is traded the tone will become ‘how come the Oilers are getting pushed around again ‘ when players like Manson Tkachuk et al feel completely free to amp up the stupid.

    Assuming Lucic does what he got his contract for.

    The contract is designed to be traded as it matures, it is probably a bit early. And pls remember trade clauses don’t travel to new teams automatically.

  107. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs: I was so pumped when I read “I too believe…” But then I kept reading…

    Jan-Apr is “not representative” but it “was a preview”;

    “physical players usually hit the wall before the amount of game Lucic has played…” What happens to players who’ve played the amount of games Lucic has played? Do they disappear overnight? What’s a physical player? Shane Doan? Bobby Holik? Ryan Smyth? Jarome Iginla? Jason Arnott? Mats Sundin? Martin Gelinas? They’re sort of in the category of players who’ve played as many games as Lucic in as many seasons.

    “we can expect maybe 1 or 2 more years at “not awful” production.” Well, I showed you what I’d expect. It’s well above “not awful” because awful is in the 0.3 or below region and not awful is south of 0.4. Don’t know how you came up with “what we can expect” but if you’re expecting “not awful”, for 1 or 2 more years, you’re expecting around what he did last season. You sure you believe he’s going to “bounce back”?

    And, finally, “Moving him while he has value is the smart play.”

    These are such strange things for a member of the “I too believe” Lucic fan club to say, WG. I’m starting to wonder.

    I’m very surprised you mentioned a bunch of players you consider comparable and didn’t post their 5v5 pts/60 per age and their hits/60 over time.

    I expected better than naming players and hand waving from someone who values data.

  108. godot10 says:

    hunter1909:
    Since checking out Bouchard’s obvious maturity over say, RNH physically it’s not such a stretch to predict he blows the doors off the competition at Training Camp, locking down a regular position with his superior skill at getting out of his own end of the rink.

    5th overall pick Scott Stevens arrived at Washington’s Training camp at 18, and did the exact same thing.

    They had Brian Engblom to babysit him and Rod Langway on the other pairing.

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909: I’m an Oilers fan.

    We will accept that answer but we won’t validate it.

  110. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909: Yes, but given the level of vitriol Lucic receives around Lowetide, this skews my view since I no longer read the MSM since they started counting articles read etc.

    To my mind if I’m the GM Lucic goes nowhere this season, save for an overpayment from some idiot on the other end of the telephone.

    He’s overpaid, but not so much as some of Chiarelli’s beauties Draisaitl cough cough

    Nurse, I don’t get the hype last season. He’s no better than a 3-4 million player, period. Screw potential, as in where did it get the Oilers with the Hall cluster lol

    I think most of the vitriol is local and doesn’t affect other NHL GMs

  111. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Try a 74 Parisienne. That car sure made oncoming traffic share the tunnel, and that Whitemud shortcut to the freeway. I saw some great big eyeballs when that huge chrome bumper came into their view.

    I drove a 74 Chrysler Newport for a while and know *exactly* what you mean.

  112. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I drove a 74 Chrysler Newport for a while and know *exactly* what you mean.

    Talk about hard on gas!

  113. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I think Luc should and may want to move, next year is probably better unless by some miracle a trade you can’t refuse comes the Oiler’s way.

    I think they still need his cover, caveat that it doesn’t mean players won’t get hurt, but teams don’t run around on the Oilers since the increase in truculence. And they used to do it as a tactic because it worked.

  114. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think most of the vitriol is local and doesn’t affect other NHL GMs

    Are you trying to tell me my opinion doesn’t matter?

  115. hunter1909 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    I think Luc should and may want to move, next year is probably better unless by some miracle a trade you can’t refuse comes the Oiler’s way.

    I think they still need his cover, caveat that it doesn’t mean players won’t get hurt, but teams don’t run around on the Oilers since the increase in truculence. And they used to do it as a tactic because it worked.

    Who knows what the future holds?

    I’m one of those old fashioned hockey fans, that likes to know the names of the players from year in to year next.

    translation: I’m 1/4 into a bottle of 12 year old whisky. One of my role models is Jack D. Ripper.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Did I read a post implying that Drai is overpaid more than Lucic?

  117. PrairieOil says:

    Wilde,

    I’m going to go with:
    1. The Ballad of Dale Weiss
    2. Ryan Miller and the Old Trolley Tracks, and
    3. Three Past San Jose in the Third

  118. Melvis says:

    hunter1909,

    I’m a big fan of serious grooves Hunter. Not necessarily to the exclusion of everything else…but.

    I came up as a little kid listening to a lot of Motown. Bernard Purdy, those Motown session cats ,the red neck Memphis boys who knew how to lay down some tracks, a lot of a-list session musicians in La, etc.

    I played along with a pair of 5b drumstcks on a bunch of cardboard boxes, pie plates and the like until the old man broke down and bought me my first drum kit when he realized I might be serious – about the time I parked the keys (piano and accordian) and started in on Joe Morello take five and 5/4 time.

    Then I started making good coin in high school playing Friday and Saturday nights. Both rocknroll and polka.

    Th rest of it has something to do with Not pursuing goals. Rather attracting them. I learned that in a summer camp archery class. In drawing the bowstring back to one’s ear, one pulls the target into the point of the arrow. It holds true for everything.

    Thus, I’ve never gone the route of looking for a “job”. I park the CV nonsense, consider some area of interest and opportunity, do the research, and approach whatever head honcho with a well written proposal that has them thinking this guy isn’t going to cost me anything in terms of ROI. Doors tend to open up.

    I’ve also run a business. It’s the kind of employee I tend to seek. This means 99 out of 100 resumes go straight to garbage. I mean recycle. I mean file.

    It certainly holds true in Hollywood. The pitch, and one’s rep as having one’s shit together are key. That’s how I get from here to there, in a nutshell.

    I’ve also farmed for a number of years. Lotta lessons there in terms of being self starting and rolling with the punches.

    I suspeect VOR can elaborate on some of this in terms of internal practice. You can see it for yourself during the winter Oympics at the top of GS… say. She’s done the practice run several times. Before it counts, she’s in her body and mind at the top of the hill – going through the motions.

    So back to music. I tend to chase the stuff from which I can learn something musically. Generally speaking, most Canadians haven’t a clue about what contitutes a groove. That happens to back bone every great session musician I’ve ever known. It took me awhile. LA cats and lot of time spent below the Mason Dixon line. Literally and figuratively.

    I tend to harbour similar sentiments among all the arts. I’m including hockey as well. If it isn’t knocking your dick in the dirt, it isn’t working.

  119. Scungilli Slushy says:

    hunter1909: Who knows what the future holds?

    I’m one of those old fashioned hockey fans, that likes to know the names of the players from year in to year next.

    translation: I’m 1/4 into a bottle of 12 year old whisky. One of my role models is Jack D. Ripper.

    I think GMs do balance current need with uncertainty. Make a bet on this season or two and deal with outcomes as they happen.

  120. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Did I read a post implying that Drai is overpaid more than Lucic?

    Given this summer Luc isn’t overpaid much if at all assuming he gets his head together.

    I talked to a guy who knows people who know Lucic personally if informally, and he said they told him he’s beat up, which is the concern.

    I took it as gossip, it didn’t seem credible even if the fellow seemed an honest type. The bigger concern is coaches using his positive strengths properly. There are still significant strengths to his game but it isn’t puck chasing etc.

    As Oiler fans we talk about the ‘threat’ of Tkachuk, others, when we have the most feared top6 forward in the league. Make it work.

  121. Wilde says:

    Speaking of Nissans, I’m 45 minutes away from fixing my ’84 z31 if I can find a discontinued part

  122. hunter1909 says:

    Melvis:
    hunter1909,

    I’m a big fan of serious grooves Hunter. Not necessarily to the exclusion of everything else…but.

    I came up as a little kid listening to a lot of Motown. Bernard Purdy, those Motown session cats ,the red neck Memphis boys who knew how to lay down some tracks, a lot ofa-list session musicians in La, etc.

    I played along with a pair of 5b drumstcks on a bunch of cardboard boxes, pie plates and the like until the old man broke down and bought me my first drum kit when he realized I might be serious –about the time I parked the keys (piano and accordian) and started in on Joe Morello take five and 5/4 time.

    Then I started making good coin in high school playing Friday and Saturday nights. Both rocknroll and polka.

    Th rest of it has something to do with Not pursuing goals. Rather attracting them. I learned that in a summer camp archery class. In drawing the bowstring back to one’s ear, one pulls the target into the point of the arrow. It holds true for everything.

    Thus, I’ve never gone the route of looking for a“job”. I park the CV nonsense, consider some area of interest and opportunity, do the research, and approach whatever head honcho with a well written proposal that has them thinking this guy isn’t going to cost me anything in terms of ROI. Doors tend to open up.

    I’ve also run a business. It’s the kind of employee I tend to seek. This means 99 out of 100 resumes go straight to garbage. I mean recycle. I mean file.

    It certainly holds true in Hollywood. The pitch, and one’s rep as having one’s shit together are key. That’s how I get from here to there, in a nutshell.

    I’ve also farmed for a number of years. Lotta lessons there in terms of being self starting and rolling with the punches.

    I suspeect VOR can elaborate on some of this in terms of internal practice. You can see it for yourself during the winter Oympics at the top of GS… say. She’s done the practice run several times. Before it counts, she’s in her body and mind at the top of the hill – going through the motions.

    So back to music. I tend to chase the stuff from which I can learn something musically. Generally speaking, most Canadians haven’t a clue about what contitutes a groove. That happens to back bone every great session musician I’ve ever known. It took me awhile. LA cats and lot of time spent below the Mason Dixon line. Literally and figuratively.

    I tend to harbour similar sentiments among all the arts. I’m including hockey as well. If it isn’t knocking your dick in the dirt, it isn’t working.

    2b here. Even 1b. I was looking to find the biggest, most impossible to use drum stick so it might make me work harder. Ended up with using 5b, lol.

    I grew up listening to hard bop on CKUA.

  123. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m very surprised you mentioned a bunch of players you consider comparable and didn’t post their 5v5 pts/60 per age and their hits/60 over time.

    I expectedbetter than naming players and hand waving from someone who values data.

    The Coles Notes version of the passage in question:

    “physical players usually hit the wall before the amount of game Lucic has played…” What happens to players who’ve played the amount of games Lucic has played? Do they disappear overnight? What’s a physical player? Shane Doan? Bobby Holik? Ryan Smyth? Jarome Iginla? Jason Arnott? Mats Sundin? Martin Gelinas? They’re sort of in the category of players who’ve played as many games as Lucic in as many seasons.

    – for setting expectations, we don’t care about the population of players who hit the wall before Lucic’s games to date; we care about the ones who kept playing; it’s how do players do in the next y years conditional on having played around N games by age x

    – players who’ve played the number of games Lucic has played at his age are generally durable, successful players; that’s why I asked what happens to players who’ve played as much and as quickly as Lucic has, the short answer is they play a bunch more games

    – you didn’t say what you meant by physical player, so I asked about players who have a similar number of games as Lucic at his age; there are more; I looked at the ones who at least sort of played a physical game

    – because I was dealing with something you said vaguely (you say a lot of vague things but you say them with, I’m going to go with confidence rather than the pejorative hand waving; that’s part of your charm by the way: your confidence), I gave you some suggestions on how to be less vague

    – and, finally, there was no mention of points, because I was only addressing your point about hitting the wall by a certain number of games

    – I made that clear with “They’re sort of in the category of players who’ve played as many games as Lucic in as many seasons.”

    – as for “I expectedbetter” and “someone who values data”? You OK? I remember one time way back you got snippy like this and questioned my credentials when I said something critical about PuckIQ; seeing as LT seems to be a fan and you seem touchy, I now try to avoid saying anything about PuckIQ

    – did you not like me pointing out how your words in one part of your post didn’t match the words in the other parts? Because it really doesn’t look like you’re a fan of Lucic like LT and me.

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909: Are you trying to tell me my opinion doesn’t matter?

    We are all voices in the dark.

  125. Melvis says:

    Wilde:
    Speaking of Nissans, I’m 45 minutes away from fixing my ’84 z31 if I can find a discontinued part

    Well ok, there are Nissans and there are Nissans. I forgot about the Z’s

  126. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Talk about hard on gas!

    I think it has that record

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    hunter1909,

    I’m a big fan of serious grooves Hunter. Not necessarily to the exclusion of everything else…but.

    I came up as a little kid listening to a lot of Motown. Bernard Purdy, those Motown session cats ,the red neck Memphis boys who knew how to lay down some tracks, a lot ofa-list session musicians in La, etc.

    I played along with a pair of 5b drumstcks on a bunch of cardboard boxes, pie plates and the like until the old man broke down and bought me my first drum kit when he realized I might be serious –about the time I parked the keys (piano and accordian) and started in on Joe Morello take five and 5/4 time.

    Then I started making good coin in high school playing Friday and Saturday nights. Both rocknroll and polka.

    Th rest of it has something to do with Not pursuing goals. Rather attracting them. I learned that in a summer camp archery class. In drawing the bowstring back to one’s ear, one pulls the target into the point of the arrow. It holds true for everything.

    Thus, I’ve never gone the route of looking for a“job”. I park the CV nonsense, consider some area of interest and opportunity, do the research, and approach whatever head honcho with a well written proposal that has them thinking this guy isn’t going to cost me anything in terms of ROI. Doors tend to open up.

    I’ve also run a business. It’s the kind of employee I tend to seek. This means 99 out of 100 resumes go straight to garbage. I mean recycle. I mean file.

    It certainly holds true in Hollywood. The pitch, and one’s rep as having one’s shit together are key. That’s how I get from here to there, in a nutshell.

    I’ve also farmed for a number of years. Lotta lessons there in terms of being self starting and rolling with the punches.

    I suspeect VOR can elaborate on some of this in terms of internal practice. You can see it for yourself during the winter Oympics at the top of GS… say. She’s done the practice run several times. Before it counts, she’s in her body and mind at the top of the hill – going through the motions.

    So back to music. I tend to chase the stuff from which I can learn something musically. Generally speaking, most Canadians haven’t a clue about what contitutes a groove. That happens to back bone every great session musician I’ve ever known. It took me awhile. LA cats and lot of time spent below the Mason Dixon line. Literally and figuratively.

    I tend to harbour similar sentiments among all the arts. I’m including hockey as well. If it isn’t knocking your dick in the dirt, it isn’t working.

    You’re a goddamn gem

  128. hunter1909 says:

    Lucic doesn’t take half the punishment of a Sam Gagner type player.

    Lucic doesn’t even have to do much anymore, as his reputation precedes him.

    So why is it such an issue that he’s almost certain to decline?

  129. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    – as for “I expectedbetter” and “someone who values data”? You OK? I remember one time way back you got snippy like this and questioned my credentials when I said something critical about PuckIQ; seeing as LT seems to be a fan and you seem touchy, I now try to avoid saying anything about PuckIQ

    That line was the chum.

    As for LT protecting me, that’s just not true.

    Give to to me with both barrels if you think its deserved.

    Except for personal attacks or being an asshole to a large group of people (like a racist and others) he doesn’t time out or delete posts.

    Back in the day this place was full of conflict over “what is right”

    Would be good to see it again.

    Also,

    – because I was dealing with something you said vaguely (you say a lot of vague things but you say them with, I’m going to go with confidence rather than the pejorative hand waving; that’s part of your charm by the way: your confidence), I gave you some suggestions on how to be less vague

    Excellent. I actually agree more than you know.

    Also,

    I still don’t see any data.

  130. jtblack says:

    We can all agree that all players productivity declines as they age. The what type of player and when has been shown by others. I am interested to see what you guys come up with. Here is my 2 cents without the data (based on what I THINK I heard / believe).

    The #1 thing that allows players to play effectively as they age is SKATING. Messier Modano Niedermayer Marleau etc etc.

    #2 is skill. Some players are just great and do so many little things well they can play for a long time (Chelios Smyth St.Louis etc etc)

    But no matter what type of player; they ALL begin to decline at some point. I know there are outliers and freaks; but that is not normal, that is the exception.

    The average player declines statistically early in their career (24 & under). I beleive this is because they become better all around and sacrifice “Stats” because of it.

    The average player peaks all around 25 – 28.

    At 28 almost all players stsrt to decline. Remeber the decline is modest, but measurable. Lets use points so we can illustrate the point (I know there is more to hockey than just points).

    I will pull a VOR here. Former 1st Rounder. Close to HHOF calibre (butt not quite). 20 yr career.

    AGE GMS PTS
    28 82 59
    29 75 66
    30 68 65
    31 55 37
    32 77 59
    33 67 53
    35 82 46
    37 72 23

    Decline is later than average due to exceptional overall ability.

    The average career is 4.5 years? When we discuss guys who’s games have dropped off, we are generally referencing players that play 10 – 16 year careers (again the exception).

    Most 30 year olds who aren’t 10 – 15 yr guys are in Europe plying their trade.

    Cant wait to see some real data.

  131. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot,

    Howe, Messier, Stevens

    The first two are 2 of the top 4 or 5 players of all time.

    The 3rd is a Dman.

    You might not want to use them when comparing to a player who peaked at 62 pts in a season.

  132. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack,

    The average player declines statistically early in their career (24 & under). I beleive this is because they become better all around and sacrifice “Stats” because of it.

    I think its because their coaches start to play them against better opposition and as you go up the roster it gets tougher to score.

  133. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s a very good question and one I tried to address mentioning Lucic’s points.

    The players you mentioned scored at elite rates during their prime. (Except Doan)

    Lucic never scored at elite rates so you cannot expect their acing curves to be his.

    That said,he scores more than your average hit happy forward so you can expect his cliff to come later than theirs.

    When he hits the cliff is not a certainty, but him hitting the cliff with years left on his contract is a certainty.

    I’ll grab some comparable and report back this weekend.

    I didn’t mean to compare Lucic directly to those players. I am just challenging the general belief that physical players break down earlier.

    If you have two overlapping bell curves, in this case physical vs non-physical and if non-physical players are the bell curve with longer lasting players you would expect the majority of the extreme outliers in longevity to come from the non-physical group.

    This isn’t the case so maybe its not the correct assumption.

    In terms of individual comparisons you could point at Hartnell as a good example of a physical player having longevity and Mike Richards as a counterpoint. Dustin Brown just throws a wrench into things.

    The best thing to do might be to look at the entire sample of players with the same career ppg as Lucic and how long they last on average.

    If you want to just say Lucic won’t last because he skates like he has a piano tied to his ass that’s a fair statement to make as well.

    I think its fair that everyone including Chiarelli was assuming that lucic is a good bet to break down in the last couple of years of his contract and the deal is structured to give the Oilers more outs in that time.

    I think its fair to assume that Lucic should make it until 31-32 without hitting the cliff? Most solidly above average players make it that long don’t they?

  134. jtblack says:

    Let’s reference the Bell curve when making a point The outliers are just that, outliers. Throw them out. Throw out John Druce and Gordie Howe

    We sre trying to figure out WHEN the average player starts to decline. Not HHOF players. That would be a different data set.

  135. Wilde says:

    Melvis: Well ok, there are Nissans and there are Nissans. I forgot about the Z’s

    I like oddities and this one’s neat.

    I found the missing piece on an American website online, added it to my cart and then found out that instead of just removing all mentions of international shipping on the website, instead a $1 000 000 shipping charge gets added to your order at checkout.

    They’ll be with the Lord soon, of course, but I’d prefer to do the road trip in this car so I’ll have to find a more charitable version of their vending and then bury them, in that order.

  136. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    jtblack,

    The average player declines statistically early in their career (24 & under). I beleive this is because they become better all around and sacrifice “Stats” because of it.

    I think its because their coaches start to play them against better opposition and as you go up the roster it gets tougher to score.

    Yah +1. There are prob a few layers.

    From 20 – 24 they are just trying to make a name for themselves and they do that by being a Thorobred.
    Then, as you say, coach plays them against the ELITE more and they always face the top D men, which makes it tougher.

    I think players learn to pace themselves during the regular season as they mature.
    Injuries start to add up this affectss the 28 / 29 yr old decline. Sekera B2B injuries at 31 & 32. betting he didnt have that at 21 & 22. I know he is an exception. Bottom line is guys lose more time to injury from 28 -33 than they do from 23 – 28. Its a fact.

    more reasons?

  137. rickithebear says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    I think Luc should and may want to move, next year is probably better unless by some miracle a trade you can’t refuse comes the Oiler’s way.

    I think they still need his cover, caveat that it doesn’t mean players won’t get hurt, but teams don’t run around on the Oilers since the increase in truculence. And they used to do it as a tactic because it worked.

    Oilers EVGF
    17-18 187 2nd highest in PAC
    16-17 182 Best in PAC
    +5

    Oilers EVGA
    17-18 199 worst in PAC
    16-17 159 2nd best in PAC
    -40

    Even -35

    PPGF
    17-18 31 worst in PAC
    16-17 56 best in PAC
    -25

    PPGA
    17-18 5
    16-17 5
    Even

    PP -25

    PKGF
    17-18 10
    16-17 4
    +6

    PKGA
    17-18 57 2nd worst in PAC
    16-17 43 3rd best in PAC
    -14

    PK -8

    Seems likely system issues on thev2 major goal diff change.

  138. Bank Shot says:

    jtblack:
    Let’s reference the Bell curve when making a pointThe outliers are just that, outliers.Throw them out.Throw out John Druce and Gordie Howe

    We sre trying to figure out WHEN the average player starts to decline.Not HHOF players. That would be a different data set.

    But if the bell curves are offset by one standard deviation then you will have a big difference at the tails of the curve.

    Looking at the top players in games played if I had to make an assumption it would be that BIG players last longer. The list is overwhelmingly big men.

    Especially if you take into account the average sizes of players has increased over the years. Guys like Howe, Delvecchio, and Buyck were big compared to their peers.

  139. jtblack says:

    Bank Shot: I didn’t mean to compare Lucic directly to those players. I am just challenging the general belief that physical players break down earlier.

    If you have two overlapping bell curves, in this case physical vs non-physical and if non-physical players are the bell curve with longer lasting players you would expect the majority of the extreme outliers in longevity to come from the non-physical group.

    This isn’t the case so maybe its not the correct assumption.

    In terms of individual comparisons you could point at Hartnell as a good example of a physical player having longevity and Mike Richards as a counterpoint. Dustin Brown just throws a wrench into things.

    The best thing to do might be to look at the entire sample of players with the same career ppg as Lucic and how long they last on average.

    If you want to just say Lucic won’t last because he skates like he has a piano tied to his ass that’s a fair statement to make as well.

    I think its fair that everyone including Chiarelli was assuming that lucic is a good bet to break down in the last couple of years of his contract and the deal is structured to give the Oilers more outs in that time.

    I think its fair to assume that Lucic should make it until 31-32 without hitting the cliff? Most solidly above average players make it that long don’t they?

    Just look at Lucic’s FA crop from 2016. 1 thing is clear, NONE of then have done better after age 28 than before. Lucic’s year is actually an exception – as in EXCEPTIONALLY BAD.

    Lucic
    Ericksson
    Brouwer
    Backes
    Okposo
    Ladd
    Nielsen
    Weise

    OMG. All got big $$ and term and NONE have lived up to theor contracts. #AgeMatters

  140. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    OriginalPouzar: Although no guarantee that Benning will be able to run with the opportunity, I would have him pencilled in at 2RD and Petrovic at 3RD, for sure.

    Either way works better than Gravel.

  141. jtblack says:

    Bank Shot: But if the bell curves are offset by one standard deviation then you will have a big difference at the tails of the curve.

    Looking at the top players in games played if I had to make an assumption it would be that BIG players last longer. The list is overwhelmingly big men.

    Especially if you take into account the average sizes of players has increased over the years. Guys like Howe, Delvecchio, and Buyck were big compared to their peers.

    You are right. But again, most players are “bigger”, so if 80% of players are over 6′ tall then the odds of bigger players playing longer is a given, as there are not many “small” players overall. Marty St.Louis is a great story, but complete exception.

  142. Wilde says:

    rickithebear: Here is an example of high school QB abuse.

    Usually highlighted by

    Come on xxxxx were only joking.

    Yeah, I kicked this snowball off the top of the hill so it’s my bad, but the OP-Brad Malone satire stuff is getting really tired, especially for something that wasn’t funny enough for five more people to pile on in the first place, and forr something that he hasn’t even mentioned today according to my quick ctrl+F

  143. Bank Shot says:

    jtblack: Just look at Lucic’s FA crop from 2016.1 thing is clear, NONE of then have done better after age 28 than before. Lucic’s year is actually an exception – as in EXCEPTIONALLY BAD.

    Lucic
    Ericksson
    Brouwer
    Backes
    Okposo
    Ladd
    Nielsen
    Weise

    OMG. All got big $$ and term and NONE have lived up to theor contracts. #AgeMatters

    Lots of those guys are older too.

    Most had decent seasons at 30/31 which are Milan’s next two.

  144. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    – as for “I expectedbetter” and “someone who values data”? You OK? I remember one time way back you got snippy like this and questioned my credentials when I said something critical about PuckIQ; seeing as LT seems to be a fan and you seem touchy, I now try to avoid saying anything about PuckIQ

    That line was the chum.

    As for LT protecting me, that’s just not true.

    Give to to me with both barrels if you think its deserved.

    Except for personal attacks or being an asshole to a large group of people (like a racist and others) he doesn’t time out or delete posts.

    Back in the day this place was full of conflict over “what is right”

    Would be good to see it again.

    Also,

    – because I was dealing with something you said vaguely (you say a lot of vague things but you say them with, I’m going to go with confidence rather than the pejorative hand waving; that’s part of your charm by the way: your confidence), I gave you some suggestions on how to be less vague

    Excellent. I actually agree more than you know.

    Also,

    I still don’t see any data.

    OK, sure on PuckIQ. Exciting!

    As for data, I posted my estimates for Lucic’s expected scoring at the time he signed the contract:

    Age, Points per game

    28, .67
    29, .59
    30, .55
    31, .52
    32, .48
    33, .51
    34, .42

    I used k nearest neighbor with k=50. I used points per game played in the player’s 25th, 26th, and 27th year old season to find the neighbors. And I used data going back to 1990-91 to mostly avoid the high scoring 80’s. And then I calculated the median PPG for the list of neighboring players going forward. I filtered out players with 0 PPG (either because they stopped playing or they’re still active in the league and haven’t reached that point in their career yet), because I assumed Lucic would play out the contract.

    It was a simple effort. The numbers looked sensible. There are lots of other ways to do this but $42 million wasn’t riding on what I came up with so I did it quickly. Looking at it again, I can already see things I’d do differently. I included players drafted after Lucic in the original sample; I should’ve excluded those because they wouldn’t be helpful in projecting future numbers. If I redo it, I get similar numbers:

    28, .67
    29, .59
    30, .53
    31, .53
    32, .53
    33, .55
    34, .44

    Lucic’s neighbors don’t look stellar on PPG (like Iginla or Sundin, etc.). I wasn’t listing those guys as comps for Lucic on points, only on games played. His projected PPG stays, as I said, borderline 2nd line until the last year of the contract, if he tracks to the median player in that sample.

    Here are the top 5 comps for Lucic in my sample:

    Player, PPG at 25, PPG at 26, PPG at 27

    Lucic, .74, .54, .68

    Stillman, .75, .57, .67
    Umberger, .68, .56, .67
    Kozlov, .73, .54, ..76
    Guerin, .66, .57, .66
    Kapanen, .73, .63, .70

    I can link to the spreadsheet if you’re interested.

  145. jtblack says:

    Bank Shot: Lots of those guys are older too.

    Most had decent seasons at 30/31 which are Milan’s next two.

    Yup true dat. can only type so many words on this phone! But ALL have declined with age, post 31

  146. Bank Shot says:

    jtblack: You are right. But again, most players are “bigger”, so if 80% of players are over 6′ tall then the odds of bigger players playing longer is a given, as there are not many “small” players overall.Marty St.Louis is a great story, but complete exception.

    Average height of an NHL forward didn’t hit 6 feet until around 1989.

    So up until that time you would expect greater than 50% to be under 6 feet.

  147. jtblack says:

    Bank Shot: Average height of an NHL forward didn’t hit 6 feet until around 1989.

    Right. Bit when Howe played he was huge. Average was prob 5’9″.
    When Messier came in he was BIG. avg maybe 5’11”
    When Lindros came he was huge. Avg prob 6’1″

    Anyway, my point was if you took an average size from any era, my guess is that MORE players from above the average size had longer careers and were better after 29 ish

  148. leadfarmer says:

    You always know someone spent a lot of time below the Mason Dixon line cause they refer to it as the Mason Dixon line. All the rest of us Yankees have absolutely no clue where that line even is

  149. Bank Shot says:

    jtblack: Yup true dat. can only type so many words on this phone!But ALL have declined with age, post 31

    Yeah. If I were Edmonton’s GM I would be using my two compliance buyots from the 2020 CBA deal on Sekera and Lucic.

  150. leadfarmer says:

    Georgexs,

    It’s not his physicality that is the issue. It is his speed. The name of the game is speed speed speed. Your comparisons are no longer valid. Throw your spreadsheet away. It’s no longer valid. You could plug Lucic into the clutch and grab era and he would thrive. The ladds okposos and Lucics of the league aren’t struggling cause they hit the magical pay day and got fat and lazy. They are struggling because the league has let the thoroughbreds run. It’s the reign of Mcdavids, McKinnons, Halls, and Barzals of the league. Now teams are bringing in fast small defensemen by the bunches. Players that don’t skate well will find a much faster exit out of the league

    But actually please post your spreadsheet. Seems like we’ve had a run of spreadsheets magically disappearing of late

  151. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack: Just look at Lucic’s FA crop from 2016.1 thing is clear, NONE of then have done better after age 28 than before. Lucic’s year is actually an exception – as in EXCEPTIONALLY BAD.

    Lucic
    Ericksson
    Brouwer
    Backes
    Okposo
    Ladd
    Nielsen
    Weise

    OMG. All got big $$ and term and NONE have lived up to theor contracts. #AgeMatters

    That year is exceptionally bad but long term contracts on UFA that are not elite is generally a terrible deal that is more than likely already bad after the first two years. Now while that 2016 class was exceptionally bad. But take this years UFA class. How many of them will look good in two years? Not Neal, Not Bozak, Not JVR, not Stastny, not Jack Johnson. Also I don’t think Tavares, even though he’s in the elite, will even be worth close to his contract by year 5 or 6 (guys that don’t skate well will not age well)

  152. leadfarmer says:

    Bank Shot,

    I’m sure Chia will sign a worse contract by then rather than buying out one year of Sekera

  153. Georgexs says:

    leadfarmer:
    Georgexs,

    It’s not his physicality that is the issue.It is his speed.The name of the game is speed speed speed.Your comparisons are no longer valid.Throw your spreadsheet away.It’s no longer valid.You could plug Lucic into the clutch and grab era and he would thrive.The ladds okposos and Lucics of the league aren’t struggling cause they hit the magical pay day and got fat and lazy.They are struggling because the league has let the thoroughbreds run.It’s the reign of Mcdavids, McKinnons, Halls, and Barzals of the league.Now teams are bringing in fast small defensemen by the bunches.Players that don’t skate well will find a much faster exit out of the league

    But actually please post your spreadsheet.Seems like we’ve had a run of spreadsheets magically disappearing of late

    Yeah, I’ve seen you say this once or twice. You must really believe it’s true.

    I’m sure you’ve found a way to fit WSH and VGK into the formula somehow. Because the name of the game is speed, speed, speed.

    I have no idea about Ladd or Okposo, but speed, speed, speed wasn’t bothering Lucic until Christmas. He was scoring 0.71 PPG at that point. Then he woke up Christmas morning and realized, my God, the name of the game is speed, speed, speed and I don’t got none. That apparently did the trick.

    Maybe he’ll get his confidence back once one of these fast, small defensemen bounce off his backside. Here’s hoping.

    Here’s the link. Feel free to print it out and tear it up. I can’t bring myself to do it. Mostly because, who prints? The name of the game is screen, screen, screen.

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=1qZ1AUx6KGpQ0Xf7AUyvOOTsM_Wt-2CMr

  154. leadfarmer says:

    Georgexs,

    You don’t think Vegas plays a fast game do you? You must watch a lot of hockey. Please watch Karlssons goals, just takes a few minutes. The goalie is set for maybe 5 of them total.
    Washington despite of what people think has some fast players and the others move the puck very fast. If you can’t skate fast you need to move the puck fast.

    It’s not a belief of true or not true. It’s a fact. Look at the list of top 20 point getters last year. Populated with plus skaters left and right. How many below average skaters do you see on there?

    But hey if you feel like Shayne Corson and Bobby Ryan are good comparables to Lucic then you go do your thing

  155. jtblack says:

    leadfarmer: That year is exceptionally bad but long term contracts on UFA that are not elite is generally a terrible deal that is more than likely already bad after the first two years.Now while that 2016 class was exceptionally bad.But take this years UFA class.How many of them will look good in two years?Not Neal, Not Bozak, Not JVR, not Stastny, not Jack Johnson.Also I don’t think Tavares, even though he’s in the elite, will even be worth close to his contract by year 5 or 6 (guys that don’t skate well will not age well)

    +100%

  156. jtblack says:

    leadfarmer:
    Georgexs,

    You don’t think Vegas plays a fast game do you?You must watch a lot of hockey.Please watch Karlssons goals, just takes a few minutes. The goalie is set for maybe 5 of them total.
    Washington despite of what people think has some fast players and the others move the puck very fast.If you can’t skate fast you need to move the puck fast.

    It’s not a belief of true or not true.It’s a fact.Look at the list of top 20 point getters last year.Populated with plus skaters left and right.How many below average skaters do you see on there?

    But hey if you feel like Shayne Corson and Bobby Ryan are good comparables to Lucic then you go do your thing

    When I think Lucic, I automatically think Bobby Ryan 😉

  157. jtblack says:

    Yawney had some great comments. The Oilers will play a faster game next year. and it ALL has to do with coaching. that simple

  158. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack,

    That’s good, but once again we are playing catch-up to the rest of the league

  159. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack: When I think Lucic, I automatically think Bobby Ryan

    How about Lupul?. That’s also one of the comparisons

  160. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lucic is one of the few players where speed is irrelevant. It’s his attitude that is important. And he isn’t slow, he’s just not quick.

    If Milan wants to show up as the force of nature that he is, like Chara, he will contribute, and given the money other guys got this summer his cap hit is looking better.

    Chara is slow as molasses. It doesn’t matter and he’s 41-42! because NOBODY wants a piece. It still matters because of how the league is run. He’s still competent if not great.

  161. jtblack says:

    leadfarmer:
    jtblack,

    That’s good, but once again we are playing catch-up to the rest of the league

    </blockquote

    Yes. I think the assistants are the best thing for Todd. Todd got away with questionable usage and strategy in 2016. Last year it blew up on him.

    I think all 3 coaches add tremendous value and am excited about the new pace / strategy

  162. VOR says:

    leadfarmer:
    VOR,

    Strongly disagree with this assessment.You can be better than your competition for a job but what matters most is long term development.Yamamoto is going to be better then a good chunk of our wingers.I would still rather have him fill nets with puck in Ahl than be a roster fill in the NHL.I’m a very firm believer in scoring players scoring a lot in their development.Put him in AHL where he is guaranteed to score a lot and when competition is too easy for him bring him up.
    It is so incredibly rare for D outside of top 3 picks to go straight to the NHL because there is just so much to learn for these players.
    In my mind if both these players are on the roster we don’t care about their development

    I thought I’d design a test of the effectiveness of the AHL as an incubator for scoring.

    I made the following assumptions:

    1. We probably should not commingle players from different talent tiers if we want to know anything about the benefit of AHL time to late first round picks. Presumably the impact and value of AHL experience varies depending on demonstrated performance level at 18. Guys like Kailer aren’t late bloomers and shouldn’t be compared to late bloomers. Nor would most fans be ecstatic if Kailer ended up as a checker. For most llate rounders a 500 game career as a checker would exceed expectations by a huge amount. So, because it is well identified tier I chose forwards taken in the bottom third of the first round.

    Why it is well established tier will become apparent as I move forward.

    2. While the definition of scorer changes over time I think we have to set a floor, a minimum bar to jump over. I chose 20 goals or 50 points as my bar. I chose these numbers because that is what the average forward chosen in the bottom third of the 1st round who makes the NHL scores on average each year.

    3. I wanted to make sure I avoided either short careers, recency bias, or players whose careers were in the dim past. I picked the draft years 1995 to 2010.

    This gave me a sample of 84 forwards. The thing is some of them were never really scorers at any lower level. Where possible I used NHLE to exclude non scoring forwards. If they had less than an NHLE of 25 I dropped them. If there was no NHLE available I used their league ranking. Top 20 among draft eligible players in your league or you are out.

    This left me 48 players.

    33 played at least 1 game in the AHL. 15 joined the NHL straight out of junior, college, or a European pro league.

    19 of 33 AHL players reached either 20 goals or 50 points in the NHL.

    All 15 of the scorers who went straight to the NHL did.

    But what I am going to do here is compare the survivors, the 34 players who became scorers in the NHL.

    Let’s start with the 15 players who went straight to the NHL. The average games played prior to the season they scored 20 goals or 50 points is 157 games. Three players did it in their first season. 1 took 458 games (Andrew Cogliano). For their careers to date they have averaged .616 points per game and played an average of 729 games in their careers.

    As for the 19 AHL graduates it took them an average of 149 games to reach the bar. The best in terms of NHL readiness were a player who played 238 games in the AHL and the next season had more than 20 goals (Brad Boyes) or maybe Patrick Eaves 18 games in the A and 20 goals the same NHL season. This group of players spent 70 games on average (1 full year) in the AHL before arriving in the NHL. In the NHL they have scored .604 points career to date and played an average of 716 career games.

    Now I would say there is (and the sample size is too small for statistically robust analysis) some evidence scorers who spend time in the A are more ready to do the same at the NHL level than if they jump right in. But there is a real price to be paid for that additional preparation. It takes a year out of the players life in returning for shortening their NHL readiness time by a few months.

    The real risk comes into view when we consider the scorers who played in the A but didn’t reach the threshold of 20 and 50. The two top reasons are career ending injury and misguided attempts to turn them into checkers. In some cases the two combine.

    In summary players in Kailer Yamamoto’s cohort who are sent to the AHL take more total time to become effective NHL scorers than players who are developed in the NHL. They are also exposed to more risks (injury, bad coaching, etc.) Given I was merely saying that if Kailer was in the top 4 right wings at camp he should stay up. I’d say the evidence is on my side in that there is no case where a player in this cohort had their development hopelessly derailed by developing in the NHL. Andrew Cogliano comes the closest.

  163. jtblack says:

    VOR: I thought I’d design a test of the effectiveness of the AHL as an incubator for scoring.

    I made the following assumptions:

    1. We probably should not commingle players from different talent tiers if we want to know anything about the benefit of AHL time to late first round picks. Presumably the impact and value of AHL experience varies depending on demonstrated performance level at 18. Guys like Kailer aren’t late bloomers and shouldn’t be compared to late bloomers. Nor would most fans be ecstatic if Kailer ended up as a checker. For most llate rounders a 500 game career as a checker would exceed expectations by a huge amount. So, because it is well identified tier I chose forwards taken in the bottom third of the first round.

    Why it is well established tier will become apparent as I move forward.

    2. While the definition of scorer changes over time I think we have to set a floor, a minimum bar to jump over. I chose 20 goals or 50 points as my bar. I chose these numbers because that is what the average forward chosen in the bottom third of the 1st round who makes the NHL scores on average each year.

    3. I wanted to make sure I avoided either short careers, recency bias, or players whose careers were in the dim past. I picked the draft years 1995 to 2010.

    This gave me a sample of 84 forwards. The thing is some of them were never really scorers at any lower level. Where possible I used NHLE to exclude non scoring forwards. If they had less than an NHLE of 25 I dropped them. If there was no NHLE available I used their league ranking. Top 20 among draft eligible players in your league or you are out.

    This left me 48 players.

    33 played at least 1 game in the AHL. 15 joined the NHL straight out of junior, college, or a European pro league.

    19 of 33 AHL players reached either 20 goals or 50 points in the NHL.

    All 15 of the scorers who went straight to the NHL did.

    But what I am going to do here is compare the survivors, the 34 players who became scorers in the NHL.

    Let’s start with the 15 players who went straight to the NHL. The average games played prior to the season they scored 20 goals or 50 points is 157 games. Three players did it in their first season. 1 took 458 games (Andrew Cogliano). For their careers to date they have averaged .616 points per game and played an average of 729 games in their careers.

    As for the 19 AHL graduates it took them an average of 149 games to reach the bar. The best in terms of NHL readiness were a player who played 238 games in the AHL and the next season had more than 20 goals (Brad Boyes) or maybe Patrick Eaves 18 games in the A and 20 goals the same NHL season. This group of players spent 70 games on average (1 full year) in the AHL before arriving in the NHL. In the NHL they have scored .604 points career to date and played an average of 716 career games.

    Now I would say there is (and the sample size is too small for statistically robust analysis) some evidence scorers who spend time in the A are more ready to do the same at the NHL level than if they jump right in. But there is a real price to be paid for that additional preparation. It takes a year out of the players life in returning for shortening their NHL readiness time by a few months.

    The real risk comes into view when we consider the scorers who played in the A but didn’t reach the threshold of 20 and 50. The two top reasons are career ending injury and misguided attempts to turn them into checkers. In some cases the two combine.

    In summary players in Kailer Yamamoto’s cohort who are sent to the AHL take more total time to become effective NHL scorers than players who are developed in the NHL. They are also exposed to more risks (injury, bad coaching, etc.) Given I was merely saying that if Kailer was in the top 4 right wings at camp he should stay up. I’d say the evidence is on my side in that there is no case where a player in this cohort had their development hopelessly derailed by developing in the NHL. Andrew Cogliano comes the closest.

    Slippery slope. Only the best of the Best “Learn in the NHL”. So of course those players end up better than the Littany of AHL tweeners. Yammy certainly not a tweener but one of his closest comparables was Tyler Johnson, who took 4 yrs to make the NHL

  164. jtblack says:

    VOR,

    You tried to breakdown the AHL scorers. Who are the “Lesrn in the NHL players”? … Generally only 1st rounders get the chance (&have the skillset) to LEARN in the NHL. And even half of them fail. 90% of 2nd rounders and later picks “HAVE” to learn in the AHL

  165. VOR says:

    Georgexs: Yeah, I’ve seen you say this once or twice. You must really believe it’s true.

    I’m sure you’ve found a way to fit WSH and VGK into the formula somehow. Because the name of the game is speed, speed, speed.

    I have no idea about Ladd or Okposo, but speed, speed, speed wasn’t bothering Lucic until Christmas. He was scoring 0.71 PPG at that point. Then he woke up Christmas morning and realized, my God, the name of the game is speed, speed, speed and I don’t got none. That apparently did the trick.

    Maybe he’ll get his confidence back once one of these fast, small defensemen bounce off his backside. Here’s hoping.

    Here’s the link. Feel free to print it out and tear it up. I can’t bring myself to do it. Mostly because, who prints? The name of the game is screen, screen, screen.

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=1qZ1AUx6KGpQ0Xf7AUyvOOTsM_Wt-2CMr

    Thank you for the link. Also for trying to introduce facts back into a largely rhetorical argument.

    I assume you know aging is a highly individual process. We simply wear out at different rates. This is a demonstrable biological fact. So comparables probably aren’t powerfully predictive though at least they are better than averages which seems to be all anyone else is offering up.

    I would like to suggest you look at other players who had mid season collapses and what happened the next season. In other words refine your definition of comparables. If you find the right comparables you will have real insight into Milan Lucic’s future.

    Not that I think (and I gather you agree with me) that aging explains Milan’s terrible post Christmas slump. Aging is a gradual process. What happened to Milan this past year was sudden. Not an aging process and not down to getting left behind by an increase in league speed. You have done a great job of highlighting that.

    I really wish people would stop attacking Milan. A lack of speed didn’t cause Milan’s collapse. Nor did aging. Or excess weight. Or a failure to train in the off season. Or vision problems.

    Whether he bounces back this coming year, as a result, will also have nothing to do with these factors.

  166. Lowetide says:

    When the gas prices skyrocketed in the early 1970’s, my Dad breezed through without a scratch. Why?

    https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/1970-Plymouth-Valiant-Pictures-c15139#pictureId=21291663

  167. VOR says:

    jtblack:
    VOR,

    You tried to breakdown the AHL scorers. Who are the “Lesrn in the NHL players”?…Generally only 1st rounders get the chance (&have the skillset) to LEARN in the NHL.And even half of them fail.90% of 2nd rounders and laterpicks “HAVE” to learn in the AHL

    Reread what I wrote. I analyzed other members of Kailer’s draft tier or cohort if you prefer. I absolutely agree most 2nd rounders and later will need time in the AHL. Kailer is a first rounder from a part of the draft that is highly studied. A truly remarkable number of forwards picked in the bottom third of the first round turn out to be valuable NHL players. Kailer fits the pattern of those players, high NHLE that should have gone higher in the draft.

    In no way is Kailer a tweeter. The kid had the 2nd best offensive numbers in his draft class. He is an elite talent.

    My point was, and is, that there is no evidence that a player like Kailer will see their development harmed by playing in the NHL.

    The guys who could handle that pressure are such outstanding talents as Alexei Morozov, Marco Sturm, Simon Gagne, Scott Gomez, Martin Havlat, Justin Williams, Alex Steen, Mike Richards, Wojtek Wolski, T.J.Oshie, Andrew Cogliano, Patrick Berglund, David Perron, Kevin Hayes, and Evgeny Kuznetzov. So no, I am not comparing him to world beaters. Truthfully Kailer is some what younger than most and has a better NHLE than nearly all of them.

    Yet a remarkable number of posters here have pre judged him and decided he has to spend time in the AHL. I suspect them of having a bias against small players.

  168. VOR says:

    jtblack: Slippery slope. Only the best of the Best “Learn in the NHL”.So of course those playersend up better than the Littany of AHL tweeners. Yammy certainly nota tweener but one of his closest comparables was Tyler Johnson, who took 4 yrs to make the NHL

    Tyler Johnson had 61 points in his first draft eligible year and Kailer Yamamoto had 99 points. So what you are saying is they are the same size and thus comparable rather than giving a shit about talent or performance at time of draft. Making decisions on any player based on anything but performance is the slippery slope to perpetual lottery status.

  169. Georgexs says:

    leadfarmer:
    Georgexs,

    You don’t think Vegas plays a fast game do you?You must watch a lot of hockey.Please watch Karlssons goals, just takes a few minutes. The goalie is set for maybe 5 of them total.
    Washington despite of what people think has some fast players and the others move the puck very fast.If you can’t skate fast you need to move the puck fast.

    It’s not a belief of true or not true.It’s a fact.Look at the list of top 20 point getters last year.Populated with plus skaters left and right.How many below average skaters do you see on there?

    But hey if you feel like Shayne Corson and Bobby Ryan are good comparables to Lucic then you go do your thing

    You’re a physician, right? Interesting to hear the “watch the games, nerd” line from that quarter.

    You’ve switched from Vegas is fast to Vegas plays fast. So you do know something about fast! How do you decide which teams and players PLAY fast and which of them ARE fast? You must watch a lot of Vegas hockey? How do you find the time?

    I did as you suggested and watched Karlsson’s goals. Is your idea that Karlsson scored his goals because of his skates? Because a lot of the time it looks to me like he’s scoring them because of his stick.

    As for goalie is set for 5 of them, hasn’t Ricki explained that the chance of scoring when a goalie is set is very small, the closed shot theory or something? So you shouldn’t see the goalie being set for a lot of any goal scorer’s goals, should you?

    Lots of one-timers, tip-ins, rebounds in the HD area, 4 breakaways. The setups were great and he finished with flair. Like you’d expect from a 40 goal scorer. Not sure what new thing you think you’ve discovered about scoring goals by watching Karlsson. I do remember you saying you don’t think Karlsson’s shooting percentage will drop much from the 23.4 he posted this year. I found that surprising at the time. Because if he does repeat that performance, that would be new.

    William Karlsson and his line had an exceptional year. Did you have a chance to assess the rest of the team while you watched all those Vegas games? Do they play a fast game too? How’d those guys do? What about the defense? Were those guys fast?

    See why I was confident you’d get VGK and WSH to work in your formula. Because when people have pet theories, everything that happens can be magically explained and understood according to the theory. You see why people might think a formula like this is a little nebulous: If you win, it’s because you’re fast or you play fast. Does that also mean if you’re fast, you win? What if you lose? Can I infer it’s because you’re slow or you play slow? Is that what the speed, speed, speed theory says?

    I agree with you that the league is getting faster. Not because I watch a lot of hockey. (So much of hockey is SOOO boring.) But because the league has been getting lighter. Younger players, in particular, are lighter than they used to be. And lighter players should as a group be faster than heavier players. That’s my not watching hockey theory.

    When I do watch hockey, I see that they are now quite a few younger players who are very high end, not just on speed, but mostly on skill. And it’s this influx of high end skill that I think is changing the game. These young players have exceptional athleticism, they process the game very quickly, they play very quickly, they make clever, effective plays to benefit their teammates, they put their opponents in tough spots.

    Lucic referred to stick skills as well: he said the game is less body on body and more stick on stick. Players are getting the puck away from him without really engaging him physically. He said this is new for him and something he has to adapt to or figure out. I don’t always see these young players outskating their opponents but I’ll see them regularly outmaneuvering them.

    This bit here is disappointing from someone who must have had some statistical training:

    “It’s not a belief of true or not true.It’s a fact.Look at the list of top 20 point getters last year.Populated with plus skaters left and right.How many below average skaters do you see on there?”

    As for this…

    “But hey if you feel like Shayne Corson and Bobby Ryan are good comparables to Lucic then you go do your thing”

    Slightly Chad-like in tone but perfectly fine. You build a model, see how it works and doesn’t work, get input from domain experts, make some changes, try again. That’s my thing.

  170. Georgexs says:

    VOR: Thank you for the link. Also for trying to introduce facts back into a largely rhetorical argument.

    I assume you know aging is a highly individual process. We simply wear out at different rates. This is a demonstrable biological fact. So comparables probably aren’t powerfully predictive though at least they are better than averages which seems to be all anyone else is offering up.

    I would like to suggest you look at other players who had mid season collapses and what happened the next season. In other words refine your definition of comparables. If you find the right comparables you will have real insight into Milan Lucic’s future.

    Not that I think (and I gather you agree with me) that aging explains Milan’s terrible post Christmas slump. Aging is a gradual process. What happened to Milan this past year was sudden. Not an aging process and not down to getting left behind by an increase in league speed. You have done a great job of highlighting that.

    I really wish people would stop attacking Milan. A lack of speed didn’t cause Milan’s collapse. Nor did aging. Or excess weight. Or a failure to train in the off season. Or vision problems.

    Whether he bounces back this coming year, as a result, will also have nothing to do with these factors.

    Thank you for the thoughtful comment, VOR.

    I admit I’m a little worried about digging into Lucic’s comparables any further. I really like the player and I very badly want him to regain his confidence. I don’t think I’m going to find many good precedents and insights into the future based on the historical data would leave me feeling just plain sad. I’m relying on faith and positive thinking here. That mid-season collapse, to me, was monumentally inexplicable for a player with Lucic’s short-term and long-term history. Something, and something other than the factors you’ve listed, happened.

    But, you’re right, I should search for precedents like any good data guy would.

  171. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot,

    Good post and I agree with it.

    Especially this:

    The best thing to do might be to look at the entire sample of players with the same career ppg as Lucic and how long they last on average.

    That’s exactly what I did

  172. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR,

    Not that I think (and I gather you agree with me) that aging explains Milan’s terrible post Christmas slump. Aging is a gradual process. What happened to Milan this past year was sudden. Not an aging process and not down to getting left behind by an increase in league speed. You have done a great job of highlighting that.

    I really wish people would stop attacking Milan. A lack of speed didn’t cause Milan’s collapse. Nor did aging. Or excess weight. Or a failure to train in the off season. Or vision problems.

    Whether he bounces back this coming year, as a result, will also have nothing to do with these factors.

    Agreed.

    What happened to Lucic was mental and I have every expectation of him returning to form.

    The thing is, his form up until his collapse is a 3rd line rate and he’s getting older.

  173. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs: OK, sure on PuckIQ. Exciting!

    As for data, I posted my estimates for Lucic’s expected scoring at the time he signed the contract:

    Age, Points per game

    28, .67
    29, .59
    30, .55
    31, .52
    32, .48
    33, .51
    34, .42

    I used k nearest neighbor with k=50. I used points per game played in the player’s 25th, 26th, and 27th year old season to find the neighbors. And I used data going back to 1990-91 to mostly avoid the high scoring 80’s. And then I calculated the median PPG for the list of neighboring players going forward. I filtered out players with 0 PPG (either because they stopped playing or they’re still active in the league and haven’t reached that point in their career yet), because I assumed Lucic would play out the contract.

    It was a simple effort. The numbers looked sensible. There are lots of other ways to do this but $42 million wasn’t riding on what I came up with so I did it quickly. Looking at it again, I can already see things I’d do differently. I included players drafted after Lucic in the original sample; I should’ve excluded those because they wouldn’t be helpful in projecting future numbers. If I redo it, I get similar numbers:

    28, .67
    29, .59
    30, .53
    31, .53
    32, .53
    33, .55
    34, .44

    Lucic’s neighbors don’t look stellar on PPG (like Iginla or Sundin, etc.). I wasn’t listing those guys as comps for Lucic on points, only on games played. His projected PPG stays, as I said, borderline 2nd line until the last year of the contract, if he tracks to the median player in that sample.

    Here are the top 5 comps for Lucic in my sample:

    Player, PPG at 25, PPG at 26, PPG at 27

    Lucic, .74, .54, .68

    Stillman, .75, .57, .67
    Umberger, .68, .56, .67
    Kozlov, .73, .54, ..76
    Guerin, .66, .57, .66
    Kapanen, .73, .63, .70

    I can link to the spreadsheet if you’re interested.

    Very fair analysis, but I think you need to look at:

    GP played by the time the player was 30.

    PIMs by the player.

    Both of those categories are decent proxies for wear and tear.

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    What does “returning to form” mean because his form in his first season as an Oiler was very similar to his second season as an Oiler. In fact, he scored at a greter rate in his second season as an Oiler than his first at 5 on 5 (although very slightly).

    The main difference in his two seasons was the career best PP heater he went on in his first season, literally doubling his previous career highs in goals and points – clearly not repeatable.

    If we want to take the season in to halves – the first half of last year, where he scored at a decent rate 5 on 5 is the outlier as the other 3 halves were 4th line scoring rates.

    With all that said, and based on nothing really but hope (and the realization that a player with little injury history should be done at 30), I do think Milan can produce on the 2nd line and not hopefully not be a boat anchor.

  175. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lucic comps:

    Step 1 – all players with at least 600gp by age 30 who had an average between 0.63-0.55pts/gm for their career
    Lucic has 811 regular season + 114 playoffs by age 30, but I thought I’d cast the net wider
    GP by 30 is important because “tread on the tire” is important here.

    Lucic has average .59 pts/gm and I added 7% above and below to cast the net wider again to 0.62 -0.56

    Step 2 – Penalty minutes/gm minimum 1/gp – Lucic is 1.27

    I have to cast the net quite wide here as there are not many who come close to Lucic. I allowed down to 0.98 PIM/gm

    PIM are important as they are a proxy for physicality

    Since 1997 a total of 8 players fit this criteria including Lucic.

    I think my criteria is pretty fair.

    Here’s the players, their pts/gm and penalty minutes per game:

    Player Pts/gm PIM/gm
    Scott Hartnell
    0.55 1.54
    Chris Gratton
    0.55 1.56
    Darcy Tucker
    0.53 1.63
    Milan Lucic
    0.59 1.21
    Wayne Simmonds
    0.58 1.26
    David Backes
    0.64 1.37
    Brandon Dubinsky
    0.58 1.19
    Shane Doan
    0.59 0.98

    Now I’ll give each player’s pts/gm and total GP from ages 30-34, the duration of the Lucic contract:

    Hartnell 345gp 209pts 0.61pts/gm
    Gratton 241gp 98pts 0.40pts/gm
    Tucker 338gp 178pts 0.53pts/gm
    Backes 290gp 174pts 0.60pts/gm (still active only 4 years played so far at 30+)
    Simmonds – same age as Lucic. 30 year old year is this year
    Dubinsky – 142gp 56pts 0.39pts/gm (just 2 seasons since 30, 18/19 would be his 32 year old season)
    Doan – 389gp 321pts 0.83pts/gm

    Doan is an obvious outlier here. He qualified for my parameters because in his first 4 seasons in the NHL he scored 62pts in 249gp 0.25pts/gm.

    For the next 9 years after his 4th year he scored at 0.78pts/gm so I don’t think he really belongs in this group.

    Aside: Oiler fans chanted Doan at his draft. Do you think they would have been patient enough to wait 4 years for him to become an Actual NHL player?

    Now let’s look at the pts/gm from 30-35 for Hartnell, Gratton, Tucker, Backes and Dubinsky
    30
    Hartnell 0.34 (injury)
    Gratton 0.51
    Tucker 0.82
    Backes 0.73
    Dubinsky 0.51

    31
    Hartnell 0.67
    Gratton 0.43
    Tucker 0.77
    Backes 0.57
    Dubinsky 0.26 (last year)

    32
    Hartnell 0.78
    Gratton 0.35
    Tucker 0.46
    Backes 0.51

    33
    Hartnell 0.62
    Gratton 0.13 (last year in NHL)
    Tucker 0.25
    Backes 0.58 (last year)

    34
    Hartnell .47
    Tucker .34 (last year in NHL)

    The slope down is pretty clear here.

    Backes and Hartnell represent the best case scenario

    Dubinsky (he seems done), Tucker and Gratton hit the cliff at 31 and 32

    To me, the best cases of Backes and Hartnell are a bit more probable if Lucic keeps his head in the game given his lack of injury history.

    But, and here’s the crux of my argument:

    Even with the best case scenario, $6MM for that player is a big inefficiency for EDM and its best to get out of that contract while you can.

    I expect Lucic to bounce back next year and probably be ok the year after that.

    That’s doesn’t make that contract ok though.

  176. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Are there any outliers headed to Oilers training camp who can steal an NHL job?

    https://theathletic.com/476011/2018/08/18/are-there-any-outliers-heading-to-oilers-training-camp-who-can-steal-an-nhl-job/

  177. who says:

    Georgexs: 1. The contract.

    – at the time it was offered, PC could’ve asked his analytics people to give him a reasonable expectation for Lucic’s offense over the next 7 years given his age and offense to that point

    – the analytics team could’ve used k-NN to find players with similar stats to Lucic based on his age and then projected his points per game based on the median PPG for historical players at each age

    – here’s what I would’ve estimated (assuming Lucic played the length of the contract):

    Age, Points per game

    28, .67
    29, .59
    30, .55
    31, .52
    32, .48
    33, .51
    34, .42

    – So after 3 seasons, you’d expect him to produce borderline second line scoring. Was that worth 7×6? No. But PC isn’t the first manager to sacrifice the long term to address his perceived needs in the short term. GM’s shouldn’t pay premium for players’ least productive years. But they do.

    – The contract was problematic at the outset. Now, after a just fine 28-year-old season at 0.61 PPG, we have a 29-year-old season at 0.41. Which means the projections based on nearest neighbor become more pessimistic and less appealing to counterparties. No one who perceives that contract to be toxic would take it on without sending something toxic back. And, if they didn’t perceive it to be toxic, they’d still send something toxic back… because that’s what you do.

    – Lucic is also owed 7 and 6 actual salary over the next two seasons. It’s a high price to pay for a perceived salvage operation. Preferable for the other side to wait a couple of seasons on the dollars alone.

    2. The proposed trade.

    – Using the same methodology as above, based on McGinn’s age and stats, I’d guess he’d probably be a 0.3 PPG player next season.

    – 0.3 PPG players playing 13.5 minutes a night don’t help teams. They go out there and lose hockey games

    – Petrovic has never played a full season. Last Season, FLA dropped him to 14:39 in 67 games after trying him at 18:09 per game the season before. That was his audition for a larger role and apparently he failed it. That’s usually not a good sign for a defenseman. Projecting him as our potential second best RHD is a stretch, given Benning and Russell both played over 17 minutes last season.

    – Seeing the team better with those two players in the lineup and Rieder taking Lucic’s place in the top 6 is… I don’t know what it is… no, wait, I do know, it’s saying CMD makes the playoffs once in his first four years in the League, despite 3 Art Ross wins. He seems like a really wonderful kid, but he’d have to be an angel to not lose faith with that. Especially after he promised his adopted town that the team would be back.

    3. What’s wrong with Lucic?

    – There was nothing wrong with Lucic in Year 1. He put up his career average in PPG. The team played winning hockey with him on the ice. People freaked out over his 5v5 primary points per 60. OMG, Lucic is in decline! They shouldn’t have. It’s not the number to look at for forwards.

    – There was nothing wrong with Lucic in Year 2 up to the Christmas break. He was on track for another reliable 0.6 PPG season (0.71) and the team was again winning with him on the ice (28-17).

    – What happened after Christmas was not good. The question is, is that stretch representative? People who say this is a 2-year trend are, again, looking at the wrong numbers. This is a half season meltdown, some awful combination of luck and loss of confidence. A flaming ball of turd that got rolling and couldn’t be stopped.

    – I think you believe that that stretch isn’t representative of the player. I believe that too. I want to take all of my belief, put it in a little box and smuggle it into Lucic’s locker so he can feel the belief vibes every day on the job. He has been a unique player in this League, ultra tough, smart, and deceptively skilled. He should get his mojo back and show this “ye of little faith” town as much.

    Lucic has not been deceptively skilled since he became an Oiler. In fact, he has been noticeably unskilled.

  178. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide:
    For The Athletic: Are there any outliers headed to Oilers training camp who can steal an NHL job?

    https://theathletic.com/476011/2018/08/18/are-there-any-outliers-heading-to-oilers-training-camp-who-can-steal-an-nhl-job/

    Of all the UFA remaining, who has the best foot speed? that would be my target.

  179. who says:

    leadfarmer:
    Georgexs,

    It’s not his physicality that is the issue.It is his speed.The name of the game is speed speed speed.Your comparisons are no longer valid.Throw your spreadsheet away.It’s no longer valid.You could plug Lucic into the clutch and grab era and he would thrive.The ladds okposos and Lucics of the league aren’t struggling cause they hit the magical pay day and got fat and lazy.They are struggling because the league has let the thoroughbreds run.It’s the reign of Mcdavids, McKinnons, Halls, and Barzals of the league.Now teams are bringing in fast small defensemen by the bunches.Players that don’t skate well will find a much faster exit out of the league

    But actually please post your spreadsheet.Seems like we’ve had a run of spreadsheets magically disappearing of late

    Hit the nail on the head with this.
    Lucic hasnt really declined much, the league has just become a lot faster and way more skilled.

  180. Glovjuice says:

    …a stunningly accurate and human explanation of the situation – finally – I had similar thoughts but not the brain power to articulate it…well done, VOR. Everyone listen up, please.

    VOR: Thank you for the link. Also for trying to introduce facts back into a largely rhetorical argument.

    I assume you know aging is a highly individual process. We simply wear out at different rates. This is a demonstrable biological fact. So comparables probably aren’t powerfully predictive though at least they are better than averages which seems to be all anyone else is offering up.

    I would like to suggest you look at other players who had mid season collapses and what happened the next season. In other words refine your definition of comparables. If you find the right comparables you will have real insight into Milan Lucic’s future.

    Not that I think (and I gather you agree with me) that aging explains Milan’s terrible post Christmas slump. Aging is a gradual process. What happened to Milan this past year was sudden. Not an aging process and not down to getting left behind by an increase in league speed. You have done a great job of highlighting that.

    I really wish people would stop attacking Milan. A lack of speed didn’t cause Milan’s collapse. Nor did aging. Or excess weight. Or a failure to train in the off season. Or vision problems.

    Whether he bounces back this coming year, as a result, will also have nothing to do with these factors.

  181. stephen sheps says:

    Melvis,

    hunter1909: I grew up listening to hard bop on CKUA.

    You and me both, Hunter. I don’t often talk about my late father much, at least on the internet, but one of my most enduring memories of him is listening to the Saturday Afternoon Jazz Show with Bill Cool on CKUA. Despite mostly being associated with ‘rock’ type music when we veer off into music-land, my dad’s collection of 45s – the only possession of his I still have 15 years later (he didn’t leave this world with much to begin with) is just as influential on my musical taste, knowledge and passion as any punk record. He had pretty much the entire output of the CTI record label from the late 60s through to the early 80s, jazz guitar greats like Wes Montgomery & George Benson, Trumpeters/Band leaders like Freddie Hubbard and Hubert Laws, even some of Quincey Jones’ stuff. Musicians like Herbie Hancock, Bob James, Eric Gale & Idris Muhammad were all session players on a lot of these records. Crazy how good one label could be, yet because pop music tastes shifted, it was essentially dead by 1979 (after its Motown distribution deal ended) and mothballed by ’84. Dad was into that hard bop stuff too, but particularly the funkier side of the genre, Donald Byrd and the 70s output of Pharoah Sanders come to mind.

    Without this stuff, getting used to improvisation, understanding groove and the occasional atonal blast of something weird, I don’t think I would have fallen down the Sonic Youth rabbit hole as readily as I did as a teen in the early-mid 90s.

  182. Paddy Morans Jockstrap says:

    Slava Voynov fixes all the issues on right defense for 2 years until Bouchard is ready and cost no assets except Sekera’s LTIR. Not like this team has avoided trying to rehab coke addicts, alcohol abusers, murders in the past so getting all old testament on this player is more than just a bit hypocritical.

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