The Graduates

We often debate the minor league system and how much it should be producing each fall. I heard many years ago that a good draft produces two actual NHL players a season, so if we add .5 players for the college and CHL undrafted free agents we arrive at 2.5 per year.

The other question surrounds qualifying as an actual NHL player. Scott Cullen’s line in the sand suggests 100 games, based on draft results. Many commenters have suggested that’s a low bar, so what’s reasonable? 400 games? Let’s start at the beginning of this century, count the graduates and their games played and see how many successful crops we’ve seen.

Finally, since the Oilers have been drafting so high over the last several years, I’m going to expand it from “guys who came up through the minors” to “players who entered the NHL via the draft or amateur procurement” and make the AHL unnecessary to qualify for the list.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

GRADUATES 2000-10

  • 1999-00: Daniel Cleary (938); Dan Lacouture (337)
  • 2000-01: Shawn Horcoff (1008); Mike Comrie (589)
  • 2001-02: Jussi Markkanen (128)
  • 2002-03: Jason Chimera (1107); Ales Hemsky (845); Fernando Pisani (462)
  • 2003-04: Jarret Stoll (872); Raffi Torres (635); Marc-Andre Bergeron (490); Ty Conklin (216) 
  • 2004-05: LOCKOUT
  • 2005-06: Matt Greene (615); Brad Winchester (390)
  • 2006-07Jan Hejda (627); Ladislav Smid (583)
  • 2007-08Andrew Cogliano (866); Kyle Brodziak (847); Sam Gagner (770); Tom Gilbert (655)
  • 2008-09: Theo Peckham (160)
  • 2009-10: Devan Dubnyk (423)

If we’re using 2.5 players per year and 400 games in a career, some of these seasons are winners (2000-01; 2002-03; 2003-04; 2005-06; 2006-07; 2007-08) and some are not but should be (1999-00; 2009-10) while others fell short (2001-02, 2008-09).

GRADUATES 2011-18

  • 2010-11: Jordan Eberle (588); Taylor Hall (529); Jeff Petry (527); Magnus Paajarvi (387)
  • 2011-12: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (457)
  • 2012-13: Justin Schultz (407); Nail Yakupov (350); Chris VandeVelde (278)
  • 2013-14: Oscar Klefbom (255); Martin Marincin (177)
  • 2014-15: Leon Draisaitl (269); Tyler Pitlick (138)
  • 2015-16: Connor McDavid (209); Darnell Nurse (197); Brandon Davidson (152)
  • 2016-17: Matt Benning (135); Drake Caggiula (127); Jesse Puljujarvi (93)
  • 2017-18: Jujhar Khaira (94); Pontus Aberg (68)

We can’t use 400 games, but we can say 2010-11 was a party. If the Oilers could keep all of their graduates, things would look much better. Alas, the sheer number of good young players who were sent away too soon (Jason Chimera, Jarret Stoll, Raffi Torres, Kyle Brodziak, Jan Hejda, Andrew Cogliano, Devan Dubnyk, Jeff Petry, Justin Schultz, Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle) carved a big hole in both decades. In many, many ways, trading Jesse Puljujarvi this instant would be in keeping with a terrible Oilers tradition. Get good players, keep good players.

ETHAN BEAR AT 20

Bear is an interesting player, it wasn’t obvious on draft day he would emerge as the second best prospect for the Oilers from the 2015 draft. It still could turn out a different way, but in the three years since he was chosen Bear has been tearing up the blacktop. In his look-see at the end of the 2017-18 season, he showed excellent passing ability and decision making with the puck, while also showing us there’s miles to go in coverage.

How much of a wallop does he pack offensively? One way for us to track his progress is comparing other 20-year old defensemen in the same league, same season:

Bear is in good company, and did have some power-play success (7 assists). I don’t know if he’s going to make it as an NHL player, but the three seasons post draft have been good ones for Bear. I’m cheering for him.

PROJECTED CONDORS 2018-19 (WITH NHLE)

  • I don’t think Kailer Yamamoto spends a long time in the AHL, but he should dominate while there.
  • Cooper Marody went 1-2-3 in three Bakersfield games at the end of the season, he assisted on two goals by Tyler Vesel, while scoring off a pass from Dave Gust.
  • Tyler Benson assisted on three AHL goals in five games (scored by Kyle Platzer, Joey Laleggia and Tyler Vesel) and I think we’ll see him in a prominent role all season in Bakersfield.
  • Tyler Vesel may be able to find his way up to the Oilers at some point, he has some nice two-way skills. Jonathan Willis wrote a fine piece for The Athletic on him here.

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153 Responses to "The Graduates"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Can’t wait to watch the Condors and see the progress of the players this year.

    Here is hoping that, Yamamoto aside, the Condors are decimated by call-ups and the guys that are real prospects but clearly need development time are given the privilege of such development time (Marody, Benson, Bear, Lagesson, Jones).

    Would anyone be surprised if the season goes down the tubes, half the team is injured at 3-4 of those guys are in the lineup in March/April?

  2. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Can’t wait to watch the Condors and see the progress of the players this year.

    Here is hoping that, Yamamoto aside, the Condors are decimated by call-ups and the guys that are real prospects but clearly need development time are given the privilege of such development time (Marody, Benson, Bear, Lagesson, Jones).

    Would anyone be surprised if the season goes down the tubes, half the team is injured at 3-4 of those guys are in the lineup in March/April?

    Getting a taste of the NHL is great experience. But it would be nice to keep the prospects all down for an extended period of time until they are fully ready for full-time employment. I don’t believe yoyoing them back and forth helps there development. JMHO

  3. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Can’t wait to watch the Condors and see the progress of the players this year.

    Here is hoping that, Yamamoto aside, the Condors are decimated by call-ups and the guys that are real prospects but clearly need development time are given the privilege of such development time (Marody, Benson, Bear, Lagesson, Jones).

    Would anyone be surprised if the season goes down the tubes, half the team is injured at 3-4 of those guys are in the lineup in March/April?

    If the seasom is down the tubes, then your scenario plays out.
    I think a full AHL year for Yammy, Benson, Marody, etc would be great. Sprinkled in with a few games via call up for some of them.

    The constant “feel” I get from this blog in “General” is that spending 1 full year in the AHL is bad for a players development? I think if Edm did this with their prospects moving forward, the LONG term results would be Better.

  4. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909 summer 18 Fun Fact:

    Connor McDavid looks suspiciously like the gas station attendant in ZZ Top’s Gimme All Your Lovin’ (OFFICIAL MUSIC VIDEO)

    as seen on on YouTube

  5. jtblack says:

    And as LT has said; the Oilers have been picking so high from 2010 – 2018 that Almost all of those players are expected to jump right into the NHL. So our draft and develop model is non existent.

    Assume for the next secade the oilers are picking between #15 & $31; all of those players will take 2-5 years to arrive.

    I am with LT although I would tweak his saying slightly.

    DRAFT GOOD PLAYERS
    DEVELOPE GOOD PLAYERS
    KEEP GOOD PLAYERS

  6. leadfarmer says:

    VOR
    Looking at your analysis yesterday. While I respect the work you took to get there. That type of analysis is very heavy with bias. Players that make the NHL right away are far more likely to be ahead of players that don’t. So saying a player should go to NHL because they will have almost 100% success rates would never survive a real life test
    For the other extreme of your analysis you could add players that go to ECHL are unlikely to become stars in the NHL therefore the ECHL is a bad development league. Now playing against your peers is hardly ever a bad thing

  7. jtblack says:

    leadfarmer:
    VOR
    Looking at your analysis yesterday.While I respect the work you took to get there.That type of analysis is very heavy with bias.Players that make the NHL right away are far more likely to be ahead of players that don’t.So saying a player should go to NHL because they will have almost 100% success rates would never survive a real life test

    +1

  8. jtblack says:

    I also like the 400 game cut off to describe an NHL player. maybe 300 would work?

    But players with just over 200 NHL games are a who’s who of “Oh yah, I forgot about him”. And those type of players generally have very little impact on the success of an NHL team.

  9. jtblack says:

    Name GP
    David Oliver 233
    Alex Henry 177
    Alexei Semenov 211
    Zach Storini 257
    Marc-Antiine Pouliot 192
    Chris Vansevelde 278
    Anton Lander 215

    Interesting is there are very few players that play between 175 – 300 NHL games.
    It’s almost as if you Either make it and play 400 + or you get your cup of coffee and are out of the League.

  10. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack:
    I also like the 400 game cut off to describe anNHL player. maybe 300 would work?

    But players with just over 200 NHL games are a who’s who of “Oh yah, I forgot about him”.And those type of players generally have very little impact on the success of an NHL team.

    Especially for a players chosen in top 100 picks and really especially for 1st round picks. No one would claim success for a guy chosen 20th OV who played 3 seasons as a 4th liner before burning out.
    I like 400 games and 4 seasons of top 6 forward or top 4 D as first round success.

  11. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    I also like the 400 game cut off to describe anNHL player. maybe 300 would work?

    But players with just over 200 NHL games are a who’s who of “Oh yah, I forgot about him”.And those type of players generally have very little impact on the success of an NHL team.

    Maybe although harder to suss out it should be usage, top 9 and top 4, and starting goalie.

    4th line and 3rd pair and backups are replacement level mostly, is that really a win?

    ** Just back to the blog, I see Lead basically said the same thing but is sneaky quick

  12. meanashell11 says:

    I have to say I am torn on the draft and develop versus the play them in the NHL.

    The league is becoming younger. Second contracts now are long and expensive.

    I am not really sure teams are giving players “time to develop” anymore. I think over time you will see a binomial distribution, players either play 400+ games or less than 100.

    If you can play, play. Otherwise there’s Europe.

  13. tileguy says:

    Yakapov and NHL player in the same sentence. All those games he played were just an experiment to see if he actually was a player, result, fail.

  14. Lowetide says:

    tileguy:
    Yakapov and NHL player in the same sentence. All those games he played were just an experiment to see if he actually was a player, result, fail.

    Led rookies in goals, tied for rookie lead in points.
    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20122013&seasonTo=20122013&gameType=2&experience=1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists

  15. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: Led rookies in goals, tied for rookie lead in points.
    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20122013&seasonTo=20122013&gameType=2&experience=1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists

    And once again the Oilers got screwed out of a Calder.

    If we get more Cups, fine. But if not…

  16. jtblack says:

    meanashell11:
    I have to say I am torn on the draft and develop versus the play them in the NHL.

    The league is becoming younger. Second contracts now are long and expensive.

    I am not really sure teams are giving players “time to develop” anymore. I think over time you will see a binomial distribution, players either play 400+ games or less than 100.

    If you can play, play. Otherwise there’s Europe.

    Second Contracts are becoming Long and Expensive for Superstar Top 10 picks that make it. Very few guys picked #20 – #100 are locking up $8 yr – $80 Million deals.

    Picks #20 – #100 NEED to be developed to have any shot at a long prosperous career. If they are thrown to the Wolves too soon, it ruins their confidence and they either need to be traded or fall out of the League completely.

  17. Melvis says:

    hunter1909,

    Good thing you mentioned ZZ TOP. I couldn’t think of the name, yet again. It followed on the heals of the Lynyrd Skynyrd comment made yesterday. There’s a certain element of southern rock sensibility that kind of eludes me. It belongs to my sister and her friends. They were heavy into that stuff, although only a couple of years younger.

    I’m kind of picky, for lack of a better word. So I’m into the Allman Brothers and Little Feat in a big way within that generalized ouvre…, but I find those guys are much more musically sophisticated, imho.

    As for the latter, I dated Linda Ronstadt a couple of times. This followed a tour I did with the Eagles, Jackson Browne and Linda. Here I’m pulling a Shrine Auditorium gig out of the cobwebs…around New Years, maybe ’75. I did 14 of those as a lighting designer…while on retainer as a production co-ordinator and road manager with Seals and Crofts and England Dan and John Ford Coley.

    The most memorable occasion with Linda was a birthday party for Little Feat drummer, Richie Hayward. That was a hell of a kitchen party.

    David Gates from Bread was there that night. So was Larry Knechtel and Michael Botts among others. Lowell George was alive and well and ticking. Harmonies galore.

    I’m not particularly keen on all this name dropping crap and what not, but it’s an undeniable chunk of my life and you wanted to know;-)

  18. jtblack says:

    Yak & Schultz. Both mishandled … ce livè ….

    That was actually one hell of a rookie crop!

  19. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    tileguy:
    Yakapov and NHL player in the same sentence. All those games he played were just an experiment to see if he actually was a player, result, fail.

    Eakins wanted to turn him into Bob Gainey. No chance for success. Should have worked with his strengths instead of reinforcing his weaknesses. They knew what they were drafting.

  20. tileguy says:

    Lowetide,

    Where is he playing now? One good season does not make a player, or does it?

  21. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q: And once again the Oilers got screwed out of a Calder.

    If we get more Cups, fine.But if not…

    He didn’t even make the all-rookie team, IIRC.

  22. Wilde says:

    capturing video again and, this is a bit of a mean-spirited exercise but, what returning player do you think I’m currently seeing worst?

  23. VOR says:

    leadfarmer:
    VOR
    Looking at your analysis yesterday.While I respect the work you took to get there.That type of analysis is very heavy with bias.Players that make the NHL right away are far more likely to be ahead of players that don’t.So saying a player should go to NHL because they will have almost 100% success rates would never survive a real life test
    For the other extreme of your analysis you could add players that go to ECHL are unlikely to become stars in the NHL therefore the ECHL is a bad development league.Now playing against your peers is hardly ever a bad thing

    Of the top I would say the evidence (and I did say there is a small sample size issue) does not support your contention that starting in the NHL without first dominating the AHL is bad for scorers. So there is no a priori reason to send Kailer down to the A.

    Nobody believes the average AHL player is Kailer Yamamoto peer group. Even you want to send him down to dominate the A because you think it will be good for his long term development. You said exactly that. So have you changed your mind and decided Kailer’s peer group is AHL players?

  24. Wilde says:

    Melvis,

    You know Melvis your posts for me are wall-to-wall google compulsory.

    That one was a rocket, though, what the hell?

    On Skynyrd: Not dirty enough for me.

  25. VOR says:

    leadfarmer:
    VOR
    Looking at your analysis yesterday.While I respect the work you took to get there.That type of analysis is very heavy with bias.Players that make the NHL right away are far more likely to be ahead of players that don’t.So saying a player should go to NHL because they will have almost 100% success rates would never survive a real life test
    For the other extreme of your analysis you could add players that go to ECHL are unlikely to become stars in the NHL therefore the ECHL is a bad development league.Now playing against your peers is hardly ever a bad thing

    And you know I never said you’d get a 100% success rate. I said there was no evidence developing in AHL gave scorers an advantage. Nor any evidence that starting in the NHL stunted players development.

  26. oilersjo says:

    Melvis Lowell George was a Very talented man. My grandkids all know all the words to Dixie Chicken as it is must listen road trip music with Grandpa. John Prine as well

  27. flyfish1168 says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: Eakins wanted to turn him into Bob Gainey.No chance for success.Should have worked with his strengths instead of reinforcing his weaknesses.They knew what they were drafting.

    +2

  28. Wilde says:

    VOR,

    You know what my fear is, with Yamamoto?

    That they won’t do even my second preferred course of action, which would be stapling him to McDavid 5v5 and powerplay.

    Philly wasted 40% of one of Travis Koncecny’s ELC years playing him with Patrick and Filppula.

    If they have Yamamoto up, they should play him 900 minutes with McDavid.

  29. Melvis says:

    And while I’m catching up from yesterday’s thread. C’mon Darcy. A gem? I’ll go with hard faced, pointy and multi-faceted. Thanks for the compliment, but you’re making me blush. I’ve never been very good at accepting these things.

    I’ve also picked rocks before spring seeding, planted trees, canola, wheat, barley, flax, peas, lentils and made more on crop and hail insurance than I ever did on two dollar wheat. I also spent the first seven years of my life using a backyard john in small town Sk. And I tend to view those salt of the earth experiences with at least as much appreciation as anything that followed.

    More than anything, I’d like to be on a big honking swather and combine these days.

  30. jtblack says:

    VOR: Of the top I would say the evidence (and I did say there is a small sample size issue) does not support your contention that starting in the NHL without first dominating the AHL is bad for scorers. So there is no a priori reason to send Kailer down to the A.

    Nobody believes the average AHL player is Kailer Yamamoto peer group. Even you want to send him down to dominate the A because you think it will be good for his long term development. You said exactly that. So have you changed your mind and decided Kailer’s peer group is AHL players?

    Peer group are the mid to late 1st Rounders. Many are not quite “ready” @ 20 to play in the NHL.

    1 year in the AHL allows them to mature, get stronger, learn the PRO game and compete against men who are good.

    Comparable – think Jake Debrusk. Perfect comparable for Yammy

  31. hunter1909 says:

    Games played = bunk.

    Proof:

    100 games played for the California Seals doesn’t match 100 games played for the 1978 Montreal Canadiens.

    OR: 100 games of 2000’s Edmonton Oilers doesn’t match the Detroit Red Wings of the same era.

  32. Melvis says:

    oilersjo,

    John Prine. Jeeez. Brooks Hunnicutt used to sing background for him, and many others….One of those fifty feet from stardom singers who never got over. A close friend, she introduced me to Steve Cropper.
    They were engaged at one time.

  33. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: Led rookies in goals, tied for rookie lead in points.
    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20122013&seasonTo=20122013&gameType=2&experience=1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists

    Hence the importance of sample size. One season where the puck had eyes did not make Yakupov a legit NHLer. More revealing was the consistent negative trend in SH % season upon season, particularly after he was asked to round out his game on the defensive side.

    This is truly what separates potential from professional imo. Lots of players can flash signs of potential. But what do you do once the league has all seen your best trick? Can you round out your repertoire to deliver consistency game after game, season after season.

    I think a detailed analysis of shot location data from Nail’s goals in junior would be revealing. In the bigs, he had a plus velocity shot with poor accuracy. Was he picking corners in junior or was he just blasting it by subpar goaltending? By my eye, Nail was a one trick pony. My contention is, like baseball, players being selected 1OV should fit the model of the ‘5 tool player.’

    The mistake with Yakupov was announcing his name at the podium. Everything after just compounded that error. Thanks Darryl.

  34. Melvis says:

    Shit. Sorry. Fuck. Taliking to myself again and jacking the thread.

  35. VOR says:

    jtblack: If the seasom is down the tubes, then your scenario plays out.
    I think a full AHL year for Yammy, Benson, Marody, etc would be great.Sprinkled in with a few games via call up for some of them.

    The constant “feel” I get from this blog in “General” is that spending 1 full year in the AHL is bad for a players development?I think if Edm did this with their prospects moving forward, the LONG term results would be Better.

    I think whether you spend time in the A, and how long you spend should depend on how you play.

    I have had a large number of current and former NHL players tell me they would never have made the NHL without the time they spent in the A. This includes players like Kyle Brodziak and Mark Lamb. I am a huge supporter of the A and think the Oilers need to do a better, smarter job of managing the Bakersfield Condors.

    But I do not believe in one size fits all strategies. Each player needs their own development plan. That plan needs to be based on how they perform in training camp and at milestones throughout the season. It needs to be a living document changing as the player changes.

    I am adamantly opposed to pre-judging players and create development plans based on anything but the player in front of you.

    Most particularly I hate the endless repetition of the ecological fallacy as a decision making strategy.

    Each player is a unique individual. I have no idea why that is so hard for people to accept. Some need time in the AHL. Some don’t. Training camp is supposed to be the tool you use to make that decision.

  36. Bag of Pucks says:

    The Gunners roar back in West London.

  37. VOR says:

    jtblack: Peer group are the mid to late 1st Rounders. Many are not quite “ready” @ 20 to play in the NHL.

    1 year in the AHL allows them to mature, get stronger, learn the PRO game and compete against men who are good.

    Comparable – think Jake Debrusk.Perfect comparable for Yammy

    Once again you are pre-judging. What is your problem with making the decision about where Kailer plays based on how he plays in training camp?

  38. Bag of Pucks says:

    jtblack:
    Name GP
    David Oliver 233
    Alex Henry 177
    Alexei Semenov211
    Zach Storini 257
    Marc-Antiine Pouliot192
    Chris Vansevelde278Anton Lander215

    Interesting is there are very few players that play between 175 – 300 NHL games.
    It’s almost as if you Either make it and play 400 +or you get your cup of coffee and are out of the League.

    All of the players on that list had no business playing that many games in the NHL imo. That they did was a byproduct of the Oilers putrid depth in that era. GPs cannot be the arbiter of draft success alone because crap players get playing time on crap teams. That doesn’t mean they drafted well.

  39. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    You said yesterday all 15 that went straight to the NHL made it. Isn’t that 100%?

    I don’t have any problem saying a player that will have just turned 20 has peers in the AHL. He’s not established and he’s working on his game. Arizona has not trouble letting Strome work on his game in the AHL and he does not have the physical limitations of Yamamoto
    And yes there are 5’10 and less players that are good in the NHL did not break into the league in their 20 year old season. Gaudreau spent 3 years in college and guess what, that is a lesser league than the Ahl. Martin St. Louis is an extreme example as is Panarin.
    Kyle Connor doesn’t have the size limitations of Yamamoto. Guess what. He spent a year in Ahl and now he’s doing very well and will be a perennial 60 point plus player

  40. Munny says:

    Melvis,

    Sweet surrender, Melvis!

    These posts are a little fly-on-the-wall peek into a kitchen we will never see, so please keep them cooking.

    If was one of my favourite songs to play on the piano growing up.

  41. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    Each player is unique. So they should all be Given NHL jobs when they are 20. Got it.
    Having each player developed at a progressing layer of difficulty does not take away their individual developmental capabilities.
    Throwing them off the deep end and telling them to swim does. The Oilers have long enough record of throwing players that aren’t ready off the deep and and then complaining when they drown. No reason to compound it

  42. Munny says:

    VOR,

    There is a lot of general-to-the-specific around these parts.

  43. Wilde says:

    The sheer volume of value lost on plus-plays by last year’s team is so sad.

    Powerplays, controlled zone entries, odd-man rushes, offensive zone face-off wins, controlled zone exits all repeatedly squandered.

    Once I learn how to pull this stuff, I want to try to develop some kind of execution index which measures how many goals/subsequent advantages a team gets off of inherently advantageous and dangerous situations relative to the league average.

  44. godot10 says:

    400 games is not a good number. Isn’t an average NHL career only 400-500 games?

    A better threshold would be choosing some percentile threshold for the length of careers at a particular draft position. One would have to do histograms, and then decide a reasonable percentile.

    100 games out of a 7th round draft pick is probably good. 100 games out of a 1st round draft pick is probably bad.

    Something like. If one is in the top half for the length of career for all players where you were drafted, that is a successful draft pick.

  45. Bag of Pucks says:

    Melvis, have you seen the Cameron Crowe show Roadies?

    I think you’d particularly enjoy the episode where the Road Manager played wonderfully by Ron White describes his apprenticeship with Skynyrd.

    That show introduced me to this Little Feat nugget and for that alone, it was worth the watch.

    https://youtu.be/Il9VFC6-Inw

  46. Lowetide says:

    tileguy:
    Lowetide,

    Where is he playing now? One good season does not make a player, or does it?

    When a player leads his rookie season in goals and ties for the lead in points by a rookie, I think it’s fair to expect that organization to find a route to success for that player. I have no doubt Nail Yakupov was stubborn and perhaps he didn’t learn quickly, maybe there were even social or personal reasons for his being unable to make it as an NHL player.

    After pushing those files with some foolscap in each toward Nail Yakupov for him to ponder, we should get to the fucking mountain of evidence against the organization.

  47. Professor Q says:

    Melvis:
    Shit. Sorry. Fuck. Taliking to myself again and jacking the thread.

    At least buy us dinner first, mate…

  48. VOR says:

    leadfarmer:
    VOR,

    Each player is unique.So they should all be Given NHL jobs when they are 20.Got it.
    Having each player developed at a progressing layer of difficulty does not take away their individual developmental capabilities.
    Throwing them off the deep end and telling them to swim does.The Oilers have long enough record of throwing players that aren’t ready off the deep and and then complaining when they drown.No reason to compound it

    I said all 15 guys who went straight to the NHL reached 20 goals and 50 points at least once in their career because they did. It was a statement of fact. I didn’t claim all players who went straight to the NHL would make it. Just that your argument that going straight to the NHL was bad for player development wasn’t supported by the evidence. Nor was your contention that playing in the AHL was good for player development.

    From this comment I can see your not interested in a discussion of substance. When you start misrepresenting what I said to imply the exact opposite of what I said it becomes apparent you are really only interested in argument for argument’s sake. And winning at whatever cost. So I chose to disengage at this point.

  49. Bag of Pucks says:

    Watching this Arsenal side under Emery is like watching the 1980 Oilers. Flashes of precocious offensive brilliance followed by lapses of logic defying defensive collapse. Nerve wracking!

  50. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: When a player leads his rookie season in goals and ties for the lead in points by a rookie, I think it’s fair to expect that organization to find a route to success for that player. I have no doubt Nail Yakupov was stubborn and perhaps he didn’t learn quickly, maybe there were even social or personal reasons for his being unable to make it as an NHL player.

    After pushing those files with some foolscap in each toward Nail Yakupov for him to ponder, we should get to the fucking mountain of evidence against the organization.

    The obvious problem with this hypothesis imo is the failure of two subsequent organizations to find a player amidst the bust.

  51. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks: The obvious problem with this hypothesis imo is the failure of two subsequent organizations to find a player amidst the bust.

    Another strike against Yak, he did get two more chances. Still, I wonder if Ralph (or a veteran coach) handled him differently as he matured, would we have a more positive outcome?

    For me, it all comes back to how many players we’re discussing. Sooner or later you develop a past. Nail has his own hide to pack to market. The Oilers have an island of lost souls to answer for and I believe that’s the larger item.

  52. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: Another strike against Yak, he did get two more chances. Still, I wonder if Ralph (or a veteran coach) handled him differently as he matured, would we have a more positive outcome?

    For me, it all comes back to how many players we’re discussing. Sooner or later you develop a past. Nail has his own hide to pack to market. The Oilers have an island of lost souls to answer for and I believe that’s the larger item.

    Starting at the top of management, then?

  53. Lowetide says:

    Professor Q: Starting at the top of management, then?

    At this point, I think the owner has to be part of the issue, but yes, top of management for certain.

  54. Lowetide says:

    PQ: By that I mean Puljujarvi is another challenge. If this group can’t unlock him, I think that reflects badly on the group. I don’t blame PC or McLellan for Yak.

  55. Oilman99 says:

    Lowetide: When a player leads his rookie season in goals and ties for the lead in points by a rookie, I think it’s fair to expect that organization to find a route to success for that player. I have no doubt Nail Yakupov was stubborn and perhaps he didn’t learn quickly, maybe there were even social or personal reasons for his being unable to make it as an NHL player.

    After pushing those files with some foolscap in each toward Nail Yakupov for him to ponder, we should get to the fucking mountain of evidence against the organization.

    Hockey sense,and IQ cannot be taught. It seemed like the guy refused, or couldn’t learn the defensive side of the game. Player agent interference early on in his career didn’t help things either.

  56. Oilman99 says:

    Lowetide: At this point, I think the owner has to be part of the issue, but yes, top of management for certain.

    Precisely why there should have been a full house cleaning when PC and Bobby Nic were brought in.

  57. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: Another strike against Yak, he did get two more chances. Still, I wonder if Ralph (or a veteran coach) handled him differently as he matured, would we have a more positive outcome?

    For me, it all comes back to how many players we’re discussing. Sooner or later you develop a past. Nail has his own hide to pack to market. The Oilers have an island of lost souls to answer for and I believe that’s the larger item.

    An obvious answer is that they drafted poorly and thus the results are reflective of putting poor prospects into the pipeline as opposed to defencies in development. Math tells us that outside the lottery picks, the odds are stacked against the prospects, so it seems counter intuitive to blame the coaches over the scouts as the most obvious explanation.

    Given a sheer decade of organizational ineptitude and DECADES of poor drafting, suspect the actual issues lie in both camps. The Oilers did rush prospects and fail to provide them adequate shelter, but they also drafted a ton of dreck prospects. In short, the blame should be shared all around. The scouts don’t get a free pass for picks like Yakupov, Gagner, Moroz, etc.

  58. Bag of Pucks says:

    Oilman99: Hockey sense,and IQ cannot be taught. It seemed like the guy refused, or couldn’t learn the defensive side of the game. Player agent interference early on in his career didn’t help things either.

    Nor did his Dad being a coach help. Gmoney (miss that guy) called it bees. To me, it was too many off ice influences leading to too many voices in his head.

  59. Wilde says:

    Bag of Pucks: The obvious problem with this hypothesis imo is the failure of two subsequent organizations to find a player amidst the bust.

    I don’t believe the 2nd and 3rd were attempting to develop thw player, though. They were just seeing what he was.

  60. Thorin says:

    Damn it, missed out in a car discussion yesterday, more specifically the chance to talk details about towing trailers to campgrounds, just because I was busy towing a trailer back from a last-minute camping trip.

    Melvis, don’t know if you’re an old hand towing trailers or new to it? I’m happy to share what i know and my experiences.

    I’m towing a 6,100 pound (when empty) 30 foot trailer with a 2013 Chevy crew cab half-ton with the 5.3L, and although it’s better on fuel than the Ford, Ram, Toyota, and Nissan half-tons, it also has the least power. It’ll loaf along at 2,000 rpms on flat ground, but going up hills it’s frequently in the 4,000 to 5,500 rpm range.

    If I could buy a new truck now I’d consider the Ford with the 3.5L EcoBoost twin turbo or the Ram with one of the hemi engines. Both have 20%+ more power than what I have now, and 10%+ more than the new Chevys. The Toyota and the Nissan are nice powerful trucks but burn too much gas to make it onto my shortlist.

    But ultimately towing capability is about so much more than the engine. You have to make sure you don’t go over your axle ratings – many people with weight distributing hitches for large trailers on half-tons and up going over their front axle rating. You have to make sure you don’t go over your payload rating – four people, two dogs, and a bunch of junk in the bed and it’s easy to go over even on the newest half-tons that are actually rated for about three quarters of a ton (1,500 pounds) of payload.

    Woodguy, did you say you have customers that buy the Ford EcoBoosts and are seeing good gas mileage out of them? Everything I’ve read where people are posting actual usage over months, the EcoBoosts are just as thirsty as naturally-aspirated V8s, but they do much better at higher elevations because the turbos keep air crammed in the motors.

  61. Bag of Pucks says:

    Wilde: I don’t believe the 2nd and 3rd were attempting to develop thw player, though. They were just seeing what he was.

    Ken Hitchcock is psychologically incapable of not schooling his players. 😏

  62. Munny says:

    jtblack: I also like the 400 game cut off to describe an NHL player. maybe 300 would work?

    godot10: 400 games is not a good number. Isn’t an average NHL career only 400-500 games?

    Georges has the data in his box. I asked him for the 1st and 2nd standard deviations the other day, but he did not provide them. IIRC correctly he stated the arithmetic mean was 270. He might have stated the median, too, I don’t recall.

    But from there and using first sigma we can determine what is an average outcome for a team’s draft in games played in The Show and what is above average.

    Not sure how regularly distributed his curve is either… probably dependent on how cups-of-coffee are included. He should be able to tell us how the data graphs out.

  63. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide:
    PQ: By that I mean Puljujarvi is another challenge. If this group can’t unlock him, I think that reflects badly on the group. I don’t blame PC or McLellan for Yak.

    A Finn GM passed on him. What did Jarmo not like? That’s a question worth pondering imo.

  64. defmn says:

    VOR: I think whether you spend time in the A, and how long you spend should depend on how you play.

    I have had a large number of current and former NHL players tell me they would never have made the NHL without the time they spent in the A. This includes players like Kyle Brodziak and Mark Lamb. I am a huge supporter of the A and think the Oilers need to do a better, smarter job of managing the Bakersfield Condors.

    But I do not believe in one size fits all strategies. Each player needs their own development plan. That plan needs to be based on how they perform in training camp and at milestones throughout the season. It needs to be a living document changing as the player changes.

    I am adamantly opposed to pre-judging players and create development plans based on anything but the player in front of you.

    Most particularly I hate the endless repetition of the ecological fallacy as a decision making strategy.

    Each player is a unique individual. I have no idea why that is so hard for people to accept. Some need time in the AHL. Some don’t. Training camp is supposed to be the tool you use to make that decision.

    This needs to be quoted and repeated over and over again.

    No idea why but apparently it does.

  65. unca miltie says:

    Thorin,

    The trick for fuel economy with the eccoboost technology is driving habits. We grew up with v-8 engines that got their maximum torque at high RPM so we learned to put our foot into it. The eccoboost engines get maximum torque in the 2700 to 3000 rpm range, so if we keep it in the area, the efficiency is there with the performance.

  66. Professor Q says:

    Bag of Pucks: A Finn GM passed on him. What did Jarmo not like? That’s a question worth pondering imo.

    Canadian GMs also passed on him. Even more questions?

  67. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks: A Finn GM passed on him. What did Jarmo not like? That’s a question worth pondering imo.

    Could be any number of things, including the guy they drafted who appears to be a helluva player. McKenzie’s consensus list had JP very high, I imagine all NHL teams were aware of positives and negatives.

  68. Bag of Pucks says:

    Professor Q: Canadian GMs also passed on him. Even more questions?

    Not really because Matthews and Laine had clearly separated themselves from the rest of the players in their class.

  69. Boil-in-the-Oil says:

    Speaking of graduates … any ideas why it’s taking so long to get Nurse signed? A lot of us are pretty sure he’ll be getting a bridge deal, so is there a problem with one side or the other’s expectations? I’m getting impatient.

  70. Richard S.S. says:

    The minimum number of games played to determine who’s a sucess in the NHL is meaningless without further context. Too many questionables make the list just on games played.

    The average number of minutes per game shows whether someone is a useful players or the 22nd or 23rd man on the Roster. Averaging double-digit minutes per Season must be a minimum qualification.

    The average number of games played per Season must indicate whether the player was/is a regular or the 24th or 25th man on the Roster. Anything less than averaging 52 games per Season is too small a sample to consider.

    It is too easy to make many lists with just two years of experience before fading away to the minors to never return. Having a little more longevity must be a serious consideration. Having less than three years as a minimum qualifications isn’t a fair consideration.

    Line in the sand: 3 or more years, averaging 52 or more games a year while playing 10 or more minutes a game. That’s being much more fair about who is a sucess.

  71. jtblack says:

    Professor Q: Canadian GMs also passed on him. Even more questions?

    Canadiens GM did not pass on JP?

    EDIT: Idiot alert I see …. Canadian … as in Wpg

  72. Melvis says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Frankly, I’m not crazy about Cameron Crowwe. Here’s the rub. An office manager, unfortunately, handed out my contact info to a Droolling Stone writer of no particular note. A stringer, more like, from the burbs.

    After which, he was always hounding me for some sort of “in”. I took him and one of his friends out one night…just to get some peace. And they ended slobbering over everybody they met. Not very cool.

    Solved nothing. Worse yet, this continued for a couple of months, like a bad case of dandruff.

    David Bowie did five nights at the Forum around that time. I knew the promoter and had the backstage passes for all those shows. And taking them one night was a very bad mistake.

    Another time, I was at this club in the Valley one night. I was considering talent management as a career option. Tata Vega was the house act there. I think I might have done someting for her. Very hot.

    And these clowns, coincidentally, showed up. And then it was an endless fending off twenty questions, and then some. I finally had to tell them to fuck off. They weren’t writers. They were male groupies more than anything else.

    I tend to view Cameron Crowe within that context. He got it totally wrong too… most of the time.

    There’s an aspect to the entertainment business that can have one lunching around the pool at the
    Beverly Hills Hotel with an agent from William Morris or CMA. “I think I’ll have the Cob Salad. Anybody for the wine sangria?”

    No mention of specifically colored M&Ms. It’s pretty cold and hard.

    The media want tv sets tossed from the 10th floor of the Sunset Riot House into the backside pool, And insist on it. Today, we call that TMZ and click bait. There’s your Cameron Crowe.

  73. RonnieB says:

    Bag of Pucks: A Finn GM passed on him. What did Jarmo not like? That’s a question worth pondering imo.

    It’s possible that Jarmo had some instinct about JP, but could he have had some inside information that practically no one else in the hockey universe had when JP was ranked # 3 ? Or is it more likely that Jarmo needed a RW less than he needed a C to replace the #1 center he had traded for Seth Jones 6 months earlier ?

  74. Melvis says:

    unca miltie,

    Thanks for suggestion, by the way;-)

  75. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    And while I’m catching up from yesterday’s thread. C’mon Darcy. A gem? I’ll go with hard faced, pointy and multi-faceted. Thanks for the compliment, but you’re making me blush. I’ve never been very good ataccepting these things.

    I’ve also picked rocks before spring seeding, planted trees, canola, wheat, barley, flax, peas, lentils and made more on crop and hail insurance than I ever did on two dollar wheat. I also spent the first seven years of my life using a backyard john in small town Sk. And I tend to view those salt of the earth experiences with at least as much appreciation as anything that followed.

    More than anything, I’d like to be on a big honking swather and combine these days.

    This is exactly why you’re a gem.

  76. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    The sheer volume of value lost on plus-plays by last year’s team is so sad.

    Powerplays, controlled zone entries, odd-man rushes, offensive zone face-off wins, controlled zone exits all repeatedly squandered.

    Once I learn how to pull this stuff, I want to try to develop some kind of execution index which measures how many goals/subsequent advantages a team gets off of inherently advantageous and dangerous situations relative to the league average.

    Is the data available to pull this stuff?

    As far as I know SPORTLOGiQ is the only NHL data that has this stuff and they only sell it to teams, TSN and Sportsnet as far as I know.

  77. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Thorin,

    Woodguy, did you say you have customers that buy the Ford EcoBoosts and are seeing good gas mileage out of them? Everything I’ve read where people are posting actual usage over months, the EcoBoosts are just as thirsty as naturally-aspirated V8s, but they do much better at higher elevations because the turbos keep air crammed in the motors.

    Yeah, customers talk about ~25mpg, city driving with a light work trailer.

    Are you talking about heavy hauling?

  78. jp says:

    Wilde:
    capturing video again and, this is a bit of a mean-spirited exercise but, what returning player do you think I’m currently seeing worst?

    ALL returning players? I’m gonna guess Ty Rattie.

  79. leadfarmer says:

    VOR: I said all 15 guys who went straight to the NHL reached 20 goals and 50 points at least once in their career because they did. It was a statement of fact. I didn’t claim all players who went straight to the NHL would make it. Just that your argument that going straight to the NHL was bad for player development wasn’t supported by the evidence. Nor was your contention that playing in the AHL was good for player development.

    From this comment I can see your not interested in a discussion of substance. When you start misrepresenting what I said to imply the exact opposite of what I said it becomes apparent you are really only interested in argument for argument’s sake. And winning at whatever cost. So I chose to disengage at this point.

    That’s ok. No reason for you to keep defending a flawed argument.
    Because this once again is the issue with this team. Has been pretty much for last 15 years. There is not enough good players fighting for jobs so you can win NHL employment with this team without having met a certain level of baseline skills you would require to make the roster on another team. This is not Jack Roslovic needs to be better than Brian Little to win solid NHL employment. This is you must be better than guys that would not sniff NHL employment in more than 2/3 of the league.
    Yamamoto needs to beat what, Malone Rattie to win a job? How many teams in the league would hire those guys. Only the dregs.
    How many teams would our RW actually beat out their RW for a top 6 job? We’re hoping JP will this year. But that is hoping.
    So to summarize, since we are going in circles. Yamamoto beating the dregs to win an NHL job is very different than a player beating a good NHL veteran for a job. Since I don’t trust our level of competition I would rather Yamamoto succeed against easier competition then have the weight of the fan base on his rather short shoulders.

    But I would agree with you. On most teams winning an NHL job outright in training camp is a sign the player is ready. Unfortunately we are not one of those teams.

    But hey it’s so much easier to attack another person and taking your toys and going home

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: A Finn GM passed on him. What did Jarmo not like? That’s a question worth pondering imo.

    My guess is that Jarmo needed a C after trading Johansson and Dubios rated as a good one.

    He’s already playing 1C on CBJ ahead of Wennberg and Jenner. Dubinsky might be done.

    They still need more Cs.

    There was also the timeline issue with JP.

    The verbal between him and Laine was : Laine is ready now and will be ready now, but JP might be the better player when they’re both 25.

    He was young and needed time and I don’t know how much time Jarmo had.

    Big thing was C though imo. He didn’t have any good ones.

  81. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    unca miltie:
    Thorin,

    The trick for fuel economy with the eccoboost technology is driving habits. We grew up with v-8 engines that got their maximum torque at high RPM so we learned to put our foot into it. The eccoboost engines get maximum torque in the 2700 to 3000 rpm range, so if we keep it in the area, the efficiency is there with the performance.

    *scribbles notes*

  82. Richard S.S. says:

    Best player available does not always apply. If a Draftee can play in the NHL in the current year or is expected to by the start of the following year, the Team was drafting for need (thus Pierre-Luc Dubois). Teams have passed up very skilled wingers and highly talented D just to draft a Center (like last year). Teams draft for need more than any other reason, while others are BPA every time.

    Jesse Puljujarvi injured his knee in a game late in his draft year and was expected to be out until at least Training Camp, possibly longer. That would scare off many GMs. Jesse missed a lot of high intensity playoffs which separated Patrik Laine from him, perhaps others. It’s very possible he drops more if the Oilers don’t pick him, perhaps not until 8-10.

  83. Melvis says:

    Thorin,

    Thanks a bunch Thorin. This really helps. I’m doing all of this research prior to commitment. I’ve driven a lot of different big ass rigs out on the back forty. And I think I can back 60 foot wide into a 62 foot space with nothing but the mirrors….when nobody is looking;-)

    But the Steiger and scraper and land shaping have little in common with a full sized pickup and about 28 feet of rv….and all the attendant options available.

    A couple of friends in law live similar lifestyles, so I’ll be hitting on them for advice.

    Now what I really need is someone around my age who’s in shape, unattached, culturally sophisticated, well read, well educated, smarter than me, financially independent and into the adventure;-)

    Did iI mention…a multi-pronoun free, broad minded, politically incorrect female?

  84. unca miltie says:

    Woodguy v2.0: *scribbles notes*

    IN case you did not guess, I work in a Ford store. Funny thing is Ford did not tell us about the driving habit idea until the eccoboost technology was 3 or 4 years old and we had to deal with complaints about fuel economy from heavy footed drivers.

  85. RonnieB says:

    jp: ALL returning players? I’m gonna guess Ty Rattie.

    Drake Caggiula ?

  86. Melvis says:

    Lowetide: Another strike against Yak, he did get two more chances. Still, I wonder if Ralph (or a veteran coach) handled him differently as he matured, would we have a more positive outcome?

    For me, it all comes back to how many players we’re discussing. Sooner or later you develop a past. Nail has his own hide to pack to market. The Oilers have an island of lost souls to answer for and I believe that’s the larger item.

    I’ve harped on the smaller item. Sarnia gave Yak his head, So did Krueger. After which, he, his dad, his agent, and gord knows what else, shit the bed.

    He had his chances with the Blues and the Avs. One has to consider those coaching staffs, aside from the Oilers. Culture aside, I suspect, he was a bit of a pill whereever he went – despite surface appearances.

  87. oilersjo says:

    I remember a game when Nelson was coaching,it came to a shoot out. Nelson tapped Yak and the look in Yak’s face was priceless. Little things can do big things.

  88. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Big reason for new cars having 8 speed transmissions. To do everything to keep the car at those rpm to get that beautiful mpg sticker rating

  89. bendelson says:

    Thorin: Damn it, missed out in a car discussion yesterday, more specifically the chance to talk details about towing trailers to campgrounds, just because I was busy towing a trailer back from a last-minute camping trip.

    In a former life, while managing a provincial park, there was nothing more entertaining than watching a novice attempt to back their fresh off the lot 30ft trailer into a tight spot. The screaming between the husband and wife, the driver and spotter, was always communication breakdown at its absolute best… and the hand signals! Oh, the hand signals…

    I once observed some poor bastard blow out the back window of his brand new Silverado on the Friday of a long weekend while attempting a completely futile, sharp over-correction to his sharp over-correction with his 5th wheel. He calmly called his wife back into the truck, and without a single word, left the park for what was undoubtedly, a very long ride home… she glanced over and somewhat sheepishly, gave me a cautious smile as they drove past.

  90. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Richard S.S.,

    . It’s very possible he drops more if the Oilers don’t pick him, perhaps not until 8-10.

    I would say that would be highly improbable.

    That draft were groups of 1, then 2, then 5-7 or there abouts.

    1- Matthews
    2 – Laine, JP
    5 – Group that included Dubois

    JP was very highly touted all year.

    Saying different is just revisionist history.

    Especially after JP had just outscored Laine and led Finland in scoring at the U20 that Christmas.

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    Does anyone know anything about the Puck Authority? Are they a reputable site?

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ugh – hours later I realize that my first post in this thread had a big mistake. I’m hoping that the Condors are NOT decimated by call-ups from the Oilers and that guys like Marody, Benson, Jones, Lagesson get the time they need to develop – whatever that looks like for each individual player.

  93. unca miltie says:

    bendelson: In a former life, while managing a provincial park, there was nothing more entertaining than watching a novice attempt to back their fresh off the lot 30ft trailer into a tight spot.The screaming between the husband and wife, the driver and spotter, was always communication breakdown at its absolute best… and the hand signals!Oh, the hand signals…

    I once observed some poor bastard blow out the back window of his brand new Silverado on the Friday of a long weekend while attempting a completely futile, sharp over-correction to his sharp over-correction with his 5th wheel.He calmly called his wife back into the truck, and without a single word, left the park for what was undoubtedly, a very long ride home… she glanced over and somewhat sheepishly, gave me a cautious smile as they drove past.

    That’s why I bought a motor home. much easier to drive and park

  94. --hudson-- says:

    Wilde:
    The sheer volume of value lost on plus-plays by last year’s team is so sad.

    Powerplays, controlled zone entries, odd-man rushes, offensive zone face-off wins, controlled zone exits all repeatedly squandered.

    Once I learn how to pull this stuff, I want to try to develop some kind of execution index which measures how many goals/subsequent advantages a team gets off of inherently advantageous and dangerous situations relative to the league average.

    If you haven’t seen it, there’s an interesting article on teams that prevent controlled zone exits. Oilers were second worst in the league just in front of Calgary. Just another suggestion for a feature to include in your index.

  95. Bos8 says:

    Melvis:
    And while I’m catching up from yesterday’s thread. C’mon Darcy. A gem? I’ll go with hard faced, pointy and multi-faceted. Thanks for the compliment, but you’re making me blush. I’ve never been very good ataccepting these things.

    I’ve also picked rocks before spring seeding, planted trees, canola, wheat, barley, flax, peas, lentils and made more on crop and hail insurance than I ever did on two dollar wheat. I also spent the first seven years of my life using a backyard john in small town Sk. And I tend to view those salt of the earth experiences with at least as much appreciation as anything that followed.

    More than anything, I’d like to be on a big honking swather and combine these days.

    If you bought your dad a rock picker, all is forgiven..

    As to the swather and combine – hated the skinned knuckles from the belt tensioners. But yeah, I miss pitching stooks. Go figure.

  96. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde:
    capturing video again and, this is a bit of a mean-spirited exercise but, what returning player do you think I’m currently seeing worst?

    Connor!

  97. Lowetide says:

    bendelson: In a former life, while managing a provincial park, there was nothing more entertaining than watching a novice attempt to back their fresh off the lot 30ft trailer into a tight spot.The screaming between the husband and wife, the driver and spotter, was always communication breakdown at its absolute best… and the hand signals!Oh, the hand signals…

    I once observed some poor bastard blow out the back window of his brand new Silverado on the Friday of a long weekend while attempting a completely futile, sharp over-correction to his sharp over-correction with his 5th wheel.He calmly called his wife back into the truck, and without a single word, left the park for what was undoubtedly, a very long ride home… she glanced over and somewhat sheepishly, gave me a cautious smile as they drove past.

    Fabulous!

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am all for seeing how Bouchard and Yamamoto (and others like Lagesson) look in camp prior to making decisions or pigeon-holing any player in to any role in any league.

    With that said, there is an issue – is there any doubt that the high skill guys like Bouchard and Yamamoto will look very good during the early pre-season games? The competition is so watered down for the first 3-5 games that its really tough to evaluate – the young skill can shine and it doesn’t really mean anything.

  99. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Does anyone know anything about the Puck Authority?Are they a reputable site?

    I don’t know. Why?

  100. Georgexs says:

    VOR,

    Are you saying forwards picked in the bottom third of the first round who arrive in the NHL without a stop in the AHL produce the same offense as players who arrive after playing in the AHL? So by playing a bottom third first round forward pick that you think is ready earlier, you’re not going to hurt his offense and you’re going to avoid the risks involved with a stop in the AHL?

    Am I reading the argument correctly or am I all wrong?

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: A Finn GM passed on him. What did Jarmo not like? That’s a question worth pondering imo.

    Maybe he knew exactly what it meant that Jesse is from a very remote part of Finland, with zero grasp of the English language and that it was going to take a few years for him to get acclimatized to the culture and the game and didn’t want to wait 3-4 years for him to arrive?

  102. Lowetide says:

    OP: The first article at their site is “Are the Montreal Canadiens a ticking time bomb for success?” so I would proceed with caution.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: I don’t know. Why?

    They’ve reached out to me on Twitter to see if I wan’t to “join their team”.

    Doesn’t seem like something I want to do.

  104. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide: Another strike against Yak, he did get two more chances. Still, I wonder if Ralph (or a veteran coach) handled him differently as he matured, would we have a more positive outcome?

    For me, it all comes back to how many players we’re discussing. Sooner or later you develop a past. Nail has his own hide to pack to market. The Oilers have an island of lost souls to answer for and I believe that’s the larger item.

    To me Lucic fits here as well. He was always a limited player. But completely unique.

    There was much said about player usage last season and I think it was a problem as with Yak. Lucic needs to play with edge and he needs to be used in a specific strategy to optimize what he can bring that almost no one else can.

    I would play him with Connor and Nuge with a mission to create havoc net front and seal his side on the boards.

    If Yama makes it or comes up I’d play him on that line to again create room and be big brother until Yama is established enough that the refs have his back, I think teams will try to intimidate him if he’s producing, if he’s not he’s in the A.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    OP: The first article at their site is “Are the Montreal Canadiens a ticking time bomb for success?” so I would proceed with caution.

    Yup, I’m going to have to agree with you there.

  106. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Or maybe it’s the same reason Kotkaniemi and Hayton got drafted above higher rated prospects. Centers are much more desired in this league. If JP was a center he would have been drafted by Cbus at 3ov.

  107. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: *scribbles notes*

    Many people who drive them including my father in law and customers, lease them. After 3 years I’d be wary. If you want a keeper in what I’ve seen in older trucks Toyota (I have a Tacoma) stay out of the shop. Cost of ownership is more than fuel.

    I have heard so many stories of front ends and fuel pumps and control modules of various types. One guy went to Tundra and is now on his second, the first still working for the crew. A builder put 400 000 K on his Tacoma and also gave it to his crew and it’s still going.

    I have 270 000 on mine. Nothing but routine maintenance. The caveat is Tacomas don’t carry weight well for heavy use and can’t tow big trailers. Depends what you do.

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Or maybe it’s the same reason Kotkaniemi and Hayton got drafted above higher rated prospects.Centers are much more desired in this league.If JP was a center he would have been drafted by Cbus at 3ov.

    Absolutely – I think the point is that the narrative that the Finish GM passing on Puljujarvi due Puljujarvi not living up to expectations (based on some knowledge the GM had) is a bit of a stretch.

  109. Richard S.S. says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    At some point, J.P. was injured and Patrik Laine kept on playing. He had a very sucessful and dominant run from that point and really took over 2nd while J.P. dropped to third. With the tendency to pick Centers before BPA and usually a 50-50 choice between best D and RW, who picks J.P. if the Oilers don’t? Are you sure?

  110. VOR says:

    Georgexs:
    VOR,

    Are you saying forwards picked in the bottom third of the first round who arrive in the NHL without a stop in the AHL produce the same offense as players who arrive after playing in the AHL? So by playing a bottom third first round forward pick that you think is ready earlier, you’re not going to hurt his offense and you’re going to avoid the risks involved with a stop in the AHL?

    Am I reading the argument correctly or am I all wrong?

    While that may or may not be true I don’t think the sample size is adequate or even close to adequate to know for sure.

    My argument is just that there is no evidence for players from Kailer’s cohort suffering from starting in the NHL or benefitting from playing in the AHL.

    I didn’t see any outcome differences.

  111. pts2pndr says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: Eakins wanted to turn him into Bob Gainey.No chance for success.Should have worked with his strengths instead of reinforcing his weaknesses.They knew what they were drafting.

    Eakins was the worst mistake made by the Oilers from their inception! MacT’s reputation will forever be tarnished because of! Loyalty at all costs! What a travesty! The saving gace if there is one is .from this we were gifted McDavid!

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    At some point, J.P. was injured and Patrik Laine kept on playing.He had a very sucessful and dominant run from that point and really took over 2nd while J.P. dropped to third.With the tendency to pick Centers before BPA and usually a 50-50 choice between best D and RW, who picks J.P. if the Oilers don’t? Are you sure?

    A winger was taken at 6th as well…..

  113. Melvis says:

    Bos8,

    My dad wouldn’t hear of a rock picker. I was my dad’s rock picker.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: Eakins was the worst mistake made by the Oilers from their inception! MacT’s reputation will forever be tarnished because of! Loyalty at all costs! What a travesty! The saving gace if there is one is .from this we were gifted McDavid!

    I don’t understand the connection between McTavish being loyal and Dallas Eakins.

    When hired, it was thought of as a huge win for the Oilers – he was very well respected coming out of the AHL and thought of as the potential next great coach – He was then fired 30 games in to his second season.

  115. Melvis says:

    bendelson: In a former life, while managing a provincial park, there was nothing more entertaining than watching a novice attempt to back their fresh off the lot 30ft trailer into a tight spot.The screaming between the husband and wife, the driver and spotter, was always communication breakdown at its absolute best… and the hand signals!Oh, the hand signals…

    I once observed some poor bastard blow out the back window of his brand new Silverado on the Friday of a long weekend while attempting a completely futile, sharp over-correction to his sharp over-correction with his 5th wheel.He calmly called his wife back into the truck, and without a single word, left the park for what was undoubtedly, a very long ride home… she glanced over and somewhat sheepishly, gave me a cautious smile as they drove past.

    Then they got home and went through the same thing trying to get the thing in the driveway next door.

    It was for sale for two years before getting caught in a high wind in Nevada. The one that twisted and broke the hitch and sent it rolling down an embankment.

    Man, the insurance…were they ever happy.

    Then they bought a Tucson and a condo in, where else, Tucson.

  116. pts2pndr says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    At some point, J.P. was injured and Patrik Laine kept on playing.He had a very sucessful and dominant run from that point and really took over 2nd while J.P. dropped to third.With the tendency to pick Centers before BPA and usually a 50-50 choice between best D and RW, who picks J.P. if the Oilers don’t? Are you sure?

    Most of the time the best of a group of items is predetermined whatever the item is but this is never always the case! Hindsight is always 20-20!

  117. Lowetide says:

    Melvis:
    Bos8,

    My dad wouldn’t hear of a rock picker.I was my dad’s rock picker.

    Worst job ever, picking rocks.

  118. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    At some point, J.P. was injured and Patrik Laine kept on playing.He had a very sucessful and dominant run from that point and really took over 2nd while J.P. dropped to third.With the tendency to pick Centers before BPA and usually a 50-50 choice between best D and RW, who picks J.P. if the Oilers don’t? Are you sure?

    You never *know* for sure unless you live in the alternate timeline.

    The players in the top 1-2 groups rarely drop much, especially 6’4″ scoring forwards.

  119. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t understand the connection between McTavish being loyal and Dallas Eakins.

    When hired, it was thought of as a huge win for the Oilers – he was very well respected coming out of the AHL and thought of as the potential next great coach – He was then fired 30 games in to his second season.

    Dallas Eakins cultivated an Eakins’ cult in the Toronto media, the centre of the hockey world. He is an ace self-promoter, but not so good at coaching.

  120. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: Worst job ever, picking rocks.

    Shoveling manure?

  121. anduril says:

    While individual player development is perhaps paramount, sometimes I wonder about the value in keeping players in the AHL together as a boost to each other. For example, let’s say KY tears it up in the AHL and 20 games in the Oilers call him up to bolster their lineup. KY may help the Oilers but at what cost to the AHL team? How does losing a linemate affect Benson and Marody, and how much better would they become if KY stays down with them? Playing with better linemates can really help a player succeed. I’ve seen it in youth sport. It’s not just that you get a point boost but I think you learn from that player. If you left KY down, does it stunt his development that much? Or, by leaving him down, do you maybe boost the development of Benson and Marody and get three prospects to the NHL instead of just one? Maybe with KY down, the Condors win more than they lose, but with him up, they lose more than they win. How does that affect the development of the players?

  122. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: Worst job ever, picking rocks.

    One of my summer jobs in high school was at a fertilizer plant near Redwater as a labourer. One of the tasks was cleaning the accumulated dust and residue out of massive machines. So it was like 100 plus degrees and your wearing a dust mask and after a couple of hours, one comes out of there covered with fertilizer dust, with it caked into ones hair with the dust and sweat.

    Picking rocks didn’t seem so bad after that.

  123. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t understand the connection between McTavish being loyal and Dallas Eakins.

    When hired, it was thought of as a huge win for the Oilers – he was very well respected coming out of the AHL and thought of as the potential next great coach – He was then fired 30 games in to his second season.

    The MSM were all in that belief. Everthing that Toronto touches is first class. It is why TSN is called by many as the Toronto Sports Network! TMac had been working in that environment and my belief is he fell into their belief system! There was little concrete evidence that Eakins was the new best coach available. The mistakes that Dallas Eakins made while coach are epic! The loyalty MacT showed to his Eakins failing ideology and many leadership errors were without equal! Making your first overall draft choice an example by benching him and throwing his assistant coaches under the bus but two of Eakins errors that defy logic!

  124. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: One of my summer jobs in high school was at a fertilizer plant near Redwater as a labourer.

    Redwater: Where back in the 20th century, my workmate got himself ambushed at 12 noon on a Saturday morning and got his two front teeth knocked out on main street Redwater lol

    Honest Question: I no longer live in Alberta, so was wondering how much of that Old West atmosphere is left?

    Ironically I complained about life when I was 16, but it was still a world where a young man was able to go anywhere he felt like.

  125. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: Worst job ever, picking rocks.

    True but It did amazing things for your upper body strength!

  126. hunter1909 says:

    pts2pndr: Making your first overall draft choice an example by benching him and throwing his assistant coaches under the bus but two of Eakins errors that defy logic!

    It’s pretty easy in fact to understand his “motivation” for treating Yaks like shite.

    Eakins is a low-character individual, proven by his actions as a head NHL coach. He hid behind the “veteran” that clown from Boston I don’t even remember his name made him captain…

    Eakins made a 19 year old foreigner his scapegoat, in a quasi-racist arguable way that many seem to denigrate my friends from the former USSR who I have grown from hatred to love over my lifetime.

    Eakins is the scum of the earth.

    lol

    Now! Back to that 12 year old scotch!

  127. hunter1909 says:

    As a Cold War child I was subjected to the entire 9 yards of propaganda.

    It helped having a Namao nearby. The literally last line of frontier defence against the dreaded Russkies.

    I grew up in fear of the unknown.

    Fast forward to today. The Russian people are marvellous. Canadians look like clowns compared to them culturally through no fault of their own since Canada is a brand new nation and Russia is ancient.

    So why should anyone hate Russia?

    I no longer know. So, I like Russia.

  128. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: Shoveling manure?

    Only if it was the chicken coop! Thinking about that still makes me shiver in disgust!

  129. Melvis says:

    There’s just something utterly silly about walking for miles and lifting weights unto a stone boat. Then handling the same weight again, when tossing them unto a pile adjacent to a slough. It wasn’t the exercise that bothered me so much. It was the high wind from the north during the first couple days in May that went whistling across a barren prairie and right through you, while kicking dirt in your face.

    And you’re never done. The one you missed lurks under a swath in late August. The one that goes through the Deere like all hell breaking loose. At which point, you discover the broken belt that takes half a day of deconstruction to replace. And the minute you’re good to go again, the high pitched squeal of the burned out bearing, announcing it’s location – right next to that effin belt.

    Now a I can’t find those rock piles. They’ve disappeared. They’re now lodged in McMansion fireplaces in exurbia.

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: The MSM were all in that belief. Everthing that Toronto touches is first class. It is why TSN is called by many as the TorontoSports Network! TMac had been working in that environment and my beliefis he fell into their belief system! There was little concrete evidence that Eakins was the new best coach available. The mistakes that Dallas Eakins made while coach are epic! The loyalty MacT showed to his Eakins failing ideology and many leadership errors were without equal! Making your first overall draft choice an example by benching him and throwing his assistant coaches under the bus but two of Eakins errors that defy logic!

    Where is this loyalty though? Sure, hiring may have been a mistake but he was fired 30 games in to his second season – I see zero loyalty.

  131. pts2pndr says:

    anduril:
    While individual player development is perhaps paramount, sometimes I wonder about the value in keeping players in the AHL together as a boost to each other. For example, let’s say KY tears it up in the AHL and 20 games in the Oilers call him up to bolster their lineup. KY may help the Oilers but at what cost to the AHL team? How does losing a linemate affect Benson and Marody, and how much better would they become if KY stays down with them? Playing with better linemates can really help a player succeed. I’ve seen it in youth sport. It’s not just that you get a point boost but I think you learn from that player. If you left KY down, does it stunt his development that much? Or, by leaving him down, do you maybe boost the development of Benson and Marody and get three prospects to the NHL instead of just one? Maybe with KY down, the Condors win more than they lose, but with him up, they lose more than they win. How does that affect the development of the players?

    The objective of a minor league affiliate should be to prepare your drafted players for your NHL team! The promotion of players to the parent team should act as an incentive for their teammates! Success of your minor league team should be calculated on the number of players they graduate to the parent team and not by their team success at the minor league level. Team success goes to the coaching staff moreso than the players and there is where I believe is the disconnect! Coaches want to be promoted therfore veteran AHL players often get playing time that should be afforded to younger players!

  132. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: Where is this loyalty though?Sure, hiring may have been a mistake but he was fired 30 games in to his second season – I see zero loyalty.

    In the media MacT went on record stating that he was fully behind the coach and sytem employed! At that time he had ample cause not to do so! His loyalty damaged his reputation and cost him his job as GM! If you anchor yourself to a sinking ship it will not end well! I could list a number of errors but the most grevous was the Eakins Hall divide which in the end opened the door for the trade to NYJ.

  133. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Dallas Eakins cultivated an Eakins’ cult in the Toronto media, the centre of the hockey world. He is an ace self-promoter, but not so good at coaching.

    We might hate him, but Eakins will be back. Maybe as early as this year.

  134. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Is the data available to pull this stuff?

    As far as I know SPORTLOGiQ is the only NHL data that has this stuff and they only sell it to teams, TSN and Sportsnet as far as I know.

    I’d be getting stuff like location/time of shots off of offensive zone face-off wins, and I already have @shutdownline’s zonal transition stuff/odd man rush on file.

    Also all the powerplay stuff should be form the NHL too.

    Figuring out how to weigh stuff would be the hardest part.

  135. Wilde says:

    The answer was Zack Kassian, by the way.

    And I’m not talking about him checking out later in the year, or the lack of physical play later in the year, or the penalties.

    Just straight up missing checks, missing pucks and generally providing no pressure.

    Guy has a tremendous story and I’m cheering for him but I’m really worried about fundamental stuff like this. Stuff that happened really early in the year and could happen really early in the year again and it could be his last year in the league as a result.

  136. leadfarmer says:

    hunter1909:
    As a Cold War child I was subjected to the entire 9 yards of propaganda.

    It helped having a Namao nearby. The literally last line of frontier defence against the dreaded Russkies.

    I grew up in fear of the unknown.

    Fast forward to today. The Russian people are marvellous. Canadians look like clowns compared to them culturally through no fault of their own since Canada is a brand new nation and Russia is ancient.

    So why should anyone hate Russia?

    I no longer know. So, I like Russia.

    The people of Ukraine can give you millions of reasons starting with Stalin stealing all their grain while they were going through a terrible famine. There’s a good place to start. Russian people are fantastic wonderful people. People that run and have run their country. Not so much.
    But I’m sure youll have some it still beats the liberal agenda comment and then a were not so innocent ourselves.
    And to that all I have to say is no one is shocked that Hunter fell in line with the rest of the right wingers “cmon guys Russia isn’t so bad”

  137. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Where is this loyalty though?Sure, hiring may have been a mistake but he was fired 30 games in to his second season – I see zero loyalty.

    I thought I remember hearing something about the owner of the team having to tell MacT to fire him

    Eakin mind is so one dimensional. He couldn’t think of players playing outside of his box. Players had to execute his scheme exactly. All players want to play to their strengths but was not allowed to in eggheads system. Every player was confused out on the ice since they were not doing want comes naturally to them.

  138. Thorin says:

    Sorry I wasn’t answering earlier in the day, I actually thought my post would be mostly ignored. Nice to know there’s fellow truck people here!

    Unca Miltie: yes, keeping the engine at lower RPM will save gas, as air and fuel are mixed at a basically static ratio in gasoline engines, so less RPM means less air going through per minute means less fuel going through per minute. This advice is valid no matter what size of engine. Lower RPM also (almost always) means less horsepower available.

    It is horsepower that determines whether you can hold 90 kmh towing 8,000 pounds (6,100 trailer and easily 1,900 gear, gear adds up quick) going up an 8% hill in the Kicking Horse Pass. I haven’t done the precise math, but I wouldn’t be surprised to hear maintaining 90 kmh on that piece of road with that load takes 350hp to maintain (if you don’t have enough horsepower, you’ll slow to a speed that requires less horsepower, until you do have enough horsepower). horsepower and torque discussions

    Now, horsepower is torque * RPM / 5252. If an engine produced the same amount of torque at all RPM then this calculation is easy, but engines have a “torque curve”, where they produce different amounts of torque at different engine speeds. The 3.5L EcoBoost (2011 edition) makes about 300hp at the wheels at 5,200 RPM (article with charts). If I’m trying to get my trailer through the Kicking Horse Pass I’m going to have to wring max power out of the engine just to hold 70 kmh, so I’m going to run it at 5,000+ RPM. If I keep the engine at 3,000 RPM, I’ll only have 200 hp available (see the charts), probably not enough to even hold 70 kmh.

    Of course at that point I’m not trying to save gas, I’m trying to get a trailer over the top of a mountain pass. Empty trucks that aren’t towing should absolutely be able to maintain highway speeds at 2,000 RPM or less (my Chevy does 100 kmh at 1,900 RPM in 6th gear, which is a second overdrive).

    Something more to think about is atmospheric pressure at altitude – Kicking Horse is 5,000 ft above sea level, and you lose approximately 3% of max power per 1,000 ft, so a 300 max hp engine will only make 255 max hp going through the Kicking Horse.

    My anecdotal evidence from my experiences, my friends’ experiences, and various bloggers that document all their driving and loads and fuel usage shows that the 2018 Chevy 5.3L and the 2018 Ford 3.5L EcoBoost get about the same real-world fuel economy but the Ford can produce more power at max load, which lets you move a couple of kilometers faster over the Kicking Horse.

    Melvis: are you getting a tow-behind trailer or a fifth wheel? Fifth wheel trailers put a lot more weight on the tow vehicle so I recommend at least a three-quarter ton truck if you’re going that way. Fifth wheels are also taller and thus have a larger frontal area resisting air than a tow-behind. And that frontal area makes a big difference – I don’t have the link handy, but I’d found a mathy RV blog that showed how frontal area / air resistance at highway speeds counted for 75% to 95% of required power – rolling resistance from the trailer and the tow vehicle accounted for about 5%, and the grade you were towing up counted for 0% to 20% (this went up to 5% grades driving between 90 kmh and 110 kmh).

    As far as parking and backing, if you’re buying a newer truck, get one with a back-up camera that can see the hitch for hooking up, and put a wireless backup camera on the back bumper of the trailer for backing into spots. If you can park in tight spots with just mirrors, you might not even need that, but you do wanna stop halfway in and walk around the trailer to make sure you’re not catching on trees, hidden posts, stumps, etc. In my family, I’m actually the one who can envision the trailer movement the best, so my wife or kids do the backing while I instruct them, and I tell them to just follow my instructions exactly and if something gets broken it’s my fault because I’m giving directions.

    Can’t help you with the companion, though 🙂

    Bendelson: that’s a funny story when it’s not happening to me! I’ve seen lots of people who don’t know how to back up and who also don’t actually pay attention to what their vehicles are doing. I saw one guy somehow get his 17 foot trailer perpendicular to the campsite he was trying to park it in. That’s 90 degrees to the direction he was supposed to be at. I’d never seen someone jack knife that small of a trailer while backing, and he couldn’t figure out how to get out, so finally I helped him get unstuck.

    Scungilli: you’re right that Toyotas have a lower rate of repairs per 100,000 km across the fleet when compared to Dodges/Rams (Ram Trucks is the actual make since 2010), Fords, Chevys/GMC, and Nissan (especially Nissan). Honda’s “truck” has a lower rate of repairs per 100,000 km than Toyota’s truck in the same class. But the Tacoma cannot tow a large travel trailer, it just doesn’t have the axle ratings nor adequate transmission cooling, and the Tundra really does use a ton of gas – if I can save 2L/100km * 20,000km, that’s 400L of fuel per year, or about $500 a year at current prices, so if I have a $1,500 repair every third year then I’ve broken even. But the Tundras do pretty damn well pulling that trailer over the Kicking Horse, thanks to all the power from the extra fuel it’s burning.

  139. Boil-in-the-Oil says:

    godot10: Shoveling manure?

    Luxury.

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: In the media MacT went on record stating that he was fully behind the coach and sytem employed! At that time he had ample cause not to do so!His loyalty damaged his reputation and cost him his job as GM! If you anchor yourself to a sinking ship it will not end well! I could list a number of errors but the most grevous was the Eakins Hall divide which in the end opened the door for the trade to NYJ.

    Of course he gave hit a vote of support publicly – he’s the GM, he’s not going to throw the coach under the bus publicly. We’ve seen managers give public votes of support just weeks before firing the coach.

    He fired that coach only 30 games in to his second season – that’s very early and, to me, I see zero loyalty but a GM that is admitting a mistake and trying to fix it.

    That’s just me though, we might have different opinions on what it means to be loyal.

  141. rickithebear says:

    Since day 1 goal scoring from
    Shooting from pocession
    is more efficient than
    first passing to some one who shoots.

    Which is more efficient
    Than passing to someone who passes to someone who shoots.

    Shooting from highest density area is most efficient way to try to get a goal.

    Goals went in 16-17
    7.35/60 on PP
    2.35;60 at even.
    7.35/2.35 = 3.12
    Approx 3.00 yr to yr.

    Even Goal production is most valuable off production ability.
    Based on efficiency and difficulty.

    That is why I look at JP versus winger peers.
    7-8 to 17-18 #8 to 19 – 19 yr old wingers in EVG

    P. Kane 7-8 14evg/82gm .171 evgpg
    Player evg. Evg/69
    Toews 9 evg .77 evg/60
    Sharp 6 .91
    Lang 4 .96
    Havlat 3 .96

    Perron 7-8 10/62 .161
    Stempniak 1.55
    Weight 3 1.67
    Mcdonald 3 1.04
    Tkachuk 3 1.23

    Puljujarvi 17-18 10/65 .154
    Lucic 6 .77
    Mcdavid 5 1.15
    Strome 3 .76
    RNH 1 .51

    Ehlers 15-16 11/72 .153
    Schiefle 6 .71
    Perrault 6 .96
    Wheeler 4 .70

    M Paajarvi 10-11 12/80 .150
    Omark 8 1.24
    Gagner 5 .71
    Cogliano 4 1.00

    Beauveillier 16-17 9/66 .136
    Nelson 3 .58
    Tavares 2 1.08
    Bailey 2 1.00

    Tkachuk 16-17 10/76 .132
    Backlund 9 .67
    Frolik 9 .67

    Burakovsky 14-15 7/53 .132
    Backstrum 4 1.07
    Ovechkiin 4 1.15
    Johansen 2 .53
    Brouwer 2 .64

    Boedker 08-09 9/78 .115
    Hanzal 4 .57
    O. Jokinen 2 .69
    Turris 1 .54

    Voracek 8-9 9/80 .113
    Chimera 4 1.07
    Umberger 3 .68
    Brassard 2 .77

    J Bratt 17-18 8/74 .108
    Hischier 4 .50
    Hall 4 .56*
    Boyle 3 2.60

    GM with who for How long.
    What % of fwd teammates are better with than without.

    PS. Manually doing WOWY on paper then transfer to excel.
    Was hours of work until
    Steered to stats.hockeyanslysis.

    Healthy lean JP.
    Playing skill with speed may be another beauty.

  142. Melvis says:

    Thorin,

    Thanks. Tow behind, definitely. I never understood the popularity of fifth wheels, for many of the reasons you cited. Furthermore, I want the truck bed free and clear. The back up camera makes a lot of sense no matter how good one’s back up skills.

    I’m not buying this year, and doing all the research and planning over the winter before putting the house up for sale next spring. The subject will probably come up again by then.

  143. v4ance says:

    godot10,

    Ha! I can top that!

    I was on an assignment via a temp agency for 4 days at Waste Management Inc. assembling those two wheeled recycling bins during Stampede. The figured I’d fully assemble 50 per day but I was finished the job by the middle of the 3rd day.

    Since I was an extra hand, they figured they put me to use over the last two days with a pressure sprayer washing out porta toilets that were coming back from all over Calgary from all the breakfasts. They gave me coveralls, rubber boots, a respirator and some rubber gloves but I still got coated with a mist of poo over all my exposed areas.

    This one porta potty comes in filled with small rocks in the bottom of the basin. Being the temp, they gave me the job of sticking my arm in and digging all those rocks out. Or anything else that was still in the bottom…

    By the end of the day, I had gotten used to the smell mostly so after I finished washing up in the employee bathroom (twice!) I hopped a C-train for home. Now if you’ve rode a train during the 4pm rush during Stampede, you’d understand that it’s usually a sardine can with everyone packed in as tightly as possible. On that train, I was given a good three feet of room on all sides while I rode home with a sardonically evil grin.

    Needless to say, I didn’t show up for my 4th day…. there was no way I was gonna be a low down dirty rock picking shit stirring dweeb for another day!

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its occurred to me that, given Yamamoto was 18 when he signed his ELC via Section 9.2 of the CBA, his contract is subject to slide again this year if he doesn’t play 10 NHL games.

    I honestly don’t imagine that he doesn’t get in to 10 NHL games this year but I wonder if this is a factor at all in management’s decisions with him.

  145. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its occurred to me that, given Yamamoto was 18 when he signed his ELC via Section 9.2 of the CBA, his contract is subject to slide again this year if he doesn’t play 10 NHL games.

    I honestly don’t imagine that he doesn’t get in to 10 NHL games this year but I wonder if this is a factor at all in management’s decisions with him.

    Hopefully they learned from how they handled Puljujärvi?

  146. who says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its occurred to me that, given Yamamoto was 18 when he signed his ELC via Section 9.2 of the CBA, his contract is subject to slide again this year if he doesn’t play 10 NHL games.

    I honestly don’t imagine that he doesn’t get in to 10 NHL games this year but I wonder if this is a factor at all in management’s decisions with him.

    Are you saying. Yamamotos contract will slide if he plays the whole year in the AHL? That doesn’t sound right.

  147. B S says:

    Melvis: I’ve harped on the smaller item. Sarnia gave Yak his head, So did Krueger. After which, he, his dad, his agent, and gord knows what else, shit the bed.

    He had his chances with the Blues and the Avs. One has to consider those coaching staffs, aside from the Oilers. Culture aside, I suspect, he was a bit of a pill whereever he went – despite surface appearances.

    This falls in the category of friend of a friend, as far as anecdotes go, but a friend of mine served Yakupov as a waiter on multiple occasions when he played in Edmonton and found him to be very polite and a bit soft spoken. This is in limited interaction, but Yak never came off as arrogant or bothered. After coming to eat a few times he brought the rest of the team so it certainly seemed as though Yak was at least talking with the rest of the team on good terms. If I recall correctly this was near the start of the following season.

    I can certainly imagine that there could have been problems getting Yakupov to learn the systems, and I personally suspect that his agent was a major problem with getting Yak to buy into the team and coaches, but given what I’ve heard about Yakupov, he didn’t have personality problems that would lend themselves to poor hockey sense or team game.

    Again, it’s all speculative

    Less speculatively, regarding Yakupov’s shot. I watched an Oilers TC practice when Yakupov first arrived and his shot was everything it was cracked up to be. it was hard and deadly accurate. He was picking corners just inside the post from almost every angle. It was the same way he would shoot his rookie season. I don’t know what happened with Eakins after Yak’s rookie season, but that accurate shot that he had was gone. I’m sure that goalies and defensemen were playing his angles better in following seasons, and as with most rookies his shooting percentage would drop, but it doesn’t explain him missing the net so often. I think something about the coaching had him gripping his stick harder.

  148. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: Are you saying. Yamamotos contract will slide if he plays the whole year in the AHL? That doesn’t sound right.

    Its true.

    Section 9.2
    Age of Players. As used in this Article, “age,” including “First SPC Signing Age,” means
    a Player’s age on September 15 of the calendar year in which he signs an SPC, regardless of his
    actual age on the date he signs such SPC

    So even though Yamamoto was 19 when he signed his contract, according to the NHL he was 18.

    If you sign your ELC at 18 it can slide for two years:

    9.1(d) (i)
    In the event that an 18 year old or 19 year old Player signs an SPC with a
    Club but does not play at least ten (10) NHL Games in the first season
    under that SPC, the term of his SPC and his number of years in the Entry
    Level System shall be extended for a period of one (1) year, except that
    this automatic extension will not apply to a Player who is 19 according to
    Section 9.2 by virtue of turning 20 between September 16 and December
    31 in the year in which he first signs an SPC. Unless a Player and Club
    expressly agree to the contrary, in the event a Player’s SPC is extended an
    additional year in accordance with this subsection, all terms of the SPC,
    with the exception of Signing Bonuses, but including Paragraph 1 Salary,
    games played bonuses and Exhibit 5 bonuses, shall be extended; provided,
    however, that the Player’s Paragraph 1 Salary shall be extended in all
    circumstances.

    The above section describes the first year an ELC can slide.

    Here’s the section that OP was referring to that affects Yamamoto:

    9.1(d)(ii)
    In the event that a Player signs his first SPC at age 18 and has had his SPC
    extended pursuant to Subsection (i), and such Player does not play at least
    ten (10) NHL Games in the second season under that SPC, then the term
    of his SPC and his number of years in the Entry Level System shall be
    extended for one (1) additional year. Unless a Player and Club expressly
    agree to the contrary, in the event a Player’s SPC is extended an additional
    year in accordance with this Subsection, all terms of the SPC, with the
    exception of Signing Bonuses, but including Paragraph 1 Salary, games
    played bonuses and Exhibit 5 bonuses, shall be extended; provided,
    however, that the Player’s Paragraph 1 Salary shall be extended in all
    circumstances.

  149. Melvis says:

    B S,

    “Pill” might be a bit of misnomer. I’m not questioning his personality. I’m drawing on an interview originally given in Russian in which he claimed to have one primary coach. His dad. After the highs and lows of Kreuger and Eakins, there were two more Oiler coaches, plus two elsewhere. The latter four can’t be all wrong. He got press boxed in Colorado, and Bared threw under the bus on one occasion.

    He also sat the playoffs his last year there, after which nobody wanted him. A lot of people here tend to ignore his last two years in the NHL. One can blame the Oilers for a lot of things. But you can’t blame two other organizations for his failings, and the rest of league for total disinterest.

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: Hopefully they learned from how they handled Puljujärvi?

    Well, yes, I guess, but there is a difference between a raw 18 year old from remote Finland and a Canadian born 20 year old coming from the CHL.

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Are you saying. Yamamotos contract will slide if he plays the whole year in the AHL? That doesn’t sound right.

    Yes, because he signed when we was 18 – 9.1(d)(i) applied his past season and 9.1(d)(ii) should apply for this season:

    (i) In the event that an 18 year old or 19 year old Player signs an SPC with a
    Club but does not play at least ten (10) NHL Games in the first season
    under that SPC, the term of his SPC and his number of years in the Entry
    Level System shall be extended for a period of one (1) year, except that
    this automatic extension will not apply to a Player who is 19 according to
    Section 9.2 by virtue of turning 20 between September 16 and December
    31 in the year in which he first signs an SPC. Unless a Player and Club
    expressly agree to the contrary, in the event a Player’s SPC is extended an
    additional year in accordance with this subsection, all terms of the SPC,
    with the exception of Signing Bonuses, but including Paragraph 1 Salary,
    games played bonuses and Exhibit 5 bonuses, shall be extended; provided,
    however, that the Player’s Paragraph 1 Salary shall be extended in all
    circumstances.

    (ii) In the event that a Player signs his first SPC at age 18 and has had his SPC
    extended pursuant to Subsection (i), and such Player does not play at least
    ten (10) NHL Games in the second season under that SPC, then the term
    of his SPC and his number of years in the Entry Level System shall be
    extended for one (1) additional year. Unless a Player and Club expressly
    agree to the contrary, in the event a Player’s SPC is extended an additional
    year in accordance with this Subsection, all terms of the SPC, with the
    exception of Signing Bonuses, but including Paragraph 1 Salary, games
    played bonuses and Exhibit 5 bonuses, shall be extended; provided,
    however, that the Player’s Paragraph 1 Salary shall be extended in all
    circumstances.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Ooooops, missed this before I just posted the same thing – sorry for the repeat – just catching up.

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