Walpurgis

I’ve been meaning to get back to something that happened last week, and today I have some time to address it.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

TRADE ON THE WAY?

When general manager Peter Chiarelli talked about the Andrej Sekera injury, he gave an interesting quote:

  • We’ll look at it (replacing Sekera) as camp progresses. I have a pretty good idea of the severity of the injury. We’ll see what’s out there, and lots of times, stuff surfaces with other clubs at camp (waivers).”  (Jim Matheson, Post Media)

The line about the severity of the injury jumps out like a Mick Taylor guitar solo. If Chiarelli knows Sekera’s injury is short term, then all of this is just words. However, if he knows we are dealing with a player who is facing a career ending crossroads, then it behooves him to quietly seek out trade options with teams who have available talent.

Adding fuel to the fire are items showing up in Boston (Torey Krug) and the Edmonton blogs are naming Justin Faulk as a candidate. These names were discussed before, earlier in summer, but that was during a time when ‘money in, money out’ was required. If I’m reading this correctly, Chiarelli could LTIR Sekera early in the season, trade for Krug or Faulk (or other) using just prospects or picks, and would not have to worry about the impact from Sekera’s return because the GM knows Sekera’s injury is so bad he will not return. I wonder if that’s what Chiarelli is contemplating. We wait.

CURRENT 50-MAN

Edmonton has all kinds of room to add players, unless something has slipped past me in these last few weeks. The cap issue is real but the 50-man is tidy. I thought it might be an idea to update you on some of the entry kids (and others) who didn’t get signed by the organization this summer.

  • Kyle Platzer signed an AHL deal with the Charlotte Checkers.
  • Laurent Brossoit signed an NHL deal with the Winnipeg Jets.
  • Joey Laleggia signed an NHL deal with the St. Louis Blues.
  • Dillon Simpson signed an NHL deal with the Columbus Blue Jackets.
  • Aidan Muir didn’t sign with Edmonton before August 15, he is now a free agent.

This young man could be Edmonton’s ace in the hole. It’s insane to bet on kids arriving exactly when you need them, but if JP can help Leon’s line to push, all this madness may not mean too much sorrow.

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171 Responses to "Walpurgis"

  1. Lowetide says:

    Blog is slow loading this morning, my apologies and we’re working on it.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    As much as I don’t like Faulk, he’s probably a better option than either Russell or Benning at this time for 2RD.

    If you can actually get him cheap (no JP, no Yamamoto, no 2019 1st) then it should probably be done.

    The question is : Will CAR let him go cheap?

    What’s their internal cap?

    They currently have 4 RHD:

    Hamilton $5.75
    Faulk $4.83
    Pesce $4.025
    TVR $2.3

    Its also important to note that Faulk’s actual salary this year and next is $6.0 and actual salary is important to CAR.

    Their entire Dcorps sits at $27.6MM right now, and that is one of the more expensive ones in the league.

    TOR needs RHD too.

    Would they like Faulk?

    They had a pile of prosepcts as currency….

    Also,

    Cap floor is $58.8

    CAR is at $61MM, but only has 11 forwards on the roster (and 7 Dmen + 2 goalies)

    Necas is a lock to play next year, probably Kokkenen as well. Maybe Foegele who got 3 points in his 2 game call up late last year, but they are all ~$850 or so on the cap

    If they subtract Faulk’s $4.83 that puts them at $56.17

    Add rookies:
    McKeowan at 7D $745
    Necas at 12th forward $895
    Kokkanen at 13th F $811
    Foegele at 14th F $746

    And they’re at 59.36

    They’re at the floor without taking back salary.

    Hmmmmmmmmmm.

  3. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Lowetide:
    Blog is slow loading this morning, my apologies and we’re working on it.

    Phew! I thought it was just another example of my terrible internet!

    I have the “Plate Tectonic Speed ©️‘ package, so….

  4. VOR says:

    Reading yesterday’s discussion about Nail Yakupov I wondered why nobody was factoring in Roman Rotenberg.

    A leading contender for the smartest mind in hockey, Rotenberg is known as the brains of SKA. Rotenberg wanted Nail Yakupov. He signed Yakupov.

    So we know Nail Yakupov will play international hockey for Russia since Rotenberg, who is all of 37, leads the Russian National team. We know Yakupov will get cherry minutes in the KHL.

    All of which raises the question of what does Rotenberg see that 31 NHL GMs don’t.

  5. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    As much as I don’t like Faulk, he’s probably a better option than either Russell or Benning at this time for 2RD.

    If you can actually get him cheap (no JP, no Yamamoto, no 2019 1st) then it should probably be done.

    The question is : Will CAR let him go cheap?

    What’s their internal cap?

    They currently have 4 RHD:

    Hamilton $5.75
    Faulk $4.83
    Pesce $4.025
    TVR $2.3

    Its also important to note that Faulk’s actual salary this year and next is $6.0 and actual salary is important to CAR.

    Their entire Dcorps sits at $27.6MM right now, and that is one of the more expensive ones in the league.

    TOR needs RHD too.

    Would they like Faulk?

    They had a pile of prosepcts as currency….

    Also,

    Cap floor is $58.8

    CAR is at $61MM, but only has 11 forwards on the roster (and 7 Dmen + 2 goalies)

    Necas is a lock to play next year, probably Kokkenen as well.Maybe Foegele who got 3 points in his 2 game call up late last year, but they are all ~$850 or so on the cap

    If they subtract Faulk’s $4.83 that puts them at $56.17

    Add rookies:
    McKeowan at 7D $745
    Necas at 12th forward $895
    Kokkanen at 13th F $811
    Foegele at 14th F $746

    And they’re at 59.36

    They’re at the floor without taking back salary.

    Hmmmmmmmmmm.

    Russell Faulk is probably better than Gravel Russell. I have thought for a while there is logic in the two teams doing something. A second and lesser prospect enough with eating the 6M? PC tells us that’s how it works.

  6. Melvis says:

    And here I was deleting histories, emptying caches, swearing at three different browsers and hitting the bottle.

  7. Melvis says:

    VOR:
    Reading yesterday’s discussion about Nail Yakupov I wondered why nobody was factoring in Roman Rotenberg.

    A leading contender for the smartest mind in hockey, Rotenberg is known as the brains of SKA. Rotenberg wanted Nail Yakupov. He signed Yakupov.

    So we know Nail Yakupov will play international hockey for Russia since Rotenberg, who is all of 37, leads the Russian National team. We know Yakupov will get cherry minutes in the KHL.

    All of which raises the question of what does Rotenberg see that 31 NHL GMs don’t.

    The smartass in me might suggest a lot more ice;-)

  8. Glovjuice says:

    Melvis:
    And here I was deleting histories, emptying caches, swearing at three different browsers and hitting the bottle.

    Do you really drink as much as you let on ?

  9. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR:
    Reading yesterday’s discussion about Nail Yakupov I wondered why nobody was factoring in Roman Rotenberg.

    A leading contender for the smartest mind in hockey, Rotenberg is known as the brains of SKA. Rotenberg wanted Nail Yakupov. He signed Yakupov.

    So we know Nail Yakupov will play international hockey for Russia since Rotenberg, who is all of 37, leads the Russian National team. We know Yakupov will get cherry minutes in the KHL.

    All of which raises the question of what does Rotenberg see that 31 NHL GMs don’t.

    Perhaps the style in the KHL fits Yak better?

    I was reading an interview with a former NHLer who is in the KHL now and he was talking about how “beautiful the Russian game is compared to the NHL”

    He mentioned that creativity with the puck is encouraged and that strict adherence to systems that most NHL teams demand doesn’t exist in the KHL. I forget which player it was, but he was Russian who have 100-200 NHL games played iirc.

    The complaint about Yak in the NHL is his freelancing or inability (willingness?) to be where the coach wants him to be.

    His last coach in EDM was McLellan. We know how he coaches.

    His first coach after EDM was Hitchcock in STL and he is as far as you can get from “Russian Hockey” and still be on planet Earth.

    I am not sure about Bednar.

    I do know that Yak was on the soft 3rd line with rookie C Kerfoot when he played (Yak only got in 58 games).

    Most teams like their 3rd to be their “learning line for prospects” and Yak’s past that point now and maybe they wanted that spot for someone else?

    Most teams have their own projects that they need to have sheltered TOI for and bringing in a free agent who requires the same TOI is a no go for most teams.

    I think its the same reason Omark couldn’t get another contract.

    Unless a team think they can slot you in their top 6, its tough for offensive tweeners to get jobs due to the conveyor belt of prospects coming to the NHL on most teams.

    The gap in EDM’s conveyor belt was why offensive tweener Rattie was able to get a contract here, but it was 2 way.

    That’s my guess.

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Russell Faulk is probably better than Gravel Russell. I have thought for a while there is logic in the two teams doing something. A second and lesser prospect enough with eating the 6M? PC tells us that’s how it works.

    I’m thinking:

    77-6
    25-Faulk
    4-83
    Gravel

    Each pair has a puck mover and a “defensive” Dman

    You probably can’t play 77 with Faulk as they both are not good defensively in the Rickibox and that pairing could be a disaster unless heavily sheltered from the other team’s best.

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    And here I was deleting histories, emptying caches, swearing at three different browsers and hitting the bottle.

    I do all that anyway

  12. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    “Hamilton $5.75
    Faulk $4.83
    Pesce $4.025
    TVR $2.3”

    Can we get TVR out of CAR? and he can hebhandle 2RHD duties?

  13. leadfarmer says:

    VOR:
    Reading yesterday’s discussion about Nail Yakupov I wondered why nobody was factoring in Roman Rotenberg.

    A leading contender for the smartest mind in hockey, Rotenberg is known as the brains of SKA. Rotenberg wanted Nail Yakupov. He signed Yakupov.

    So we know Nail Yakupov will play international hockey for Russia since Rotenberg, who is all of 37, leads the Russian National team. We know Yakupov will get cherry minutes in the KHL.

    All of which raises the question of what does Rotenberg see that 31 NHL GMs don’t.

    Bees are slower in Russia.

  14. Melvis says:

    Glovjuice,

    Not really. I counted at recycle on Friday. 33 wine bottles. Some of that goes into the cooking. A couple of cognac bottles. I rarely drink beer. Aside from some meals, I’m usually only tippling when writing here.

  15. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Still my front runners for taking Lucic at 1 mil retention from us next year.
    Looking for size and veteran presence and physicality – check
    Cap hit only means the floor number – check
    3 mil per in real money is cheaper than a 3rd liner on UFA market – check

  16. jtblack says:

    leadfarmer: Bees are slower in Russia.

    +1

    We can make excuses or state facts aout Yak and why he did not make it. But that is the final fact; he did not make it.

    He had an opportunity in 3 organizations. 2 of thise he was “hughly motivated” to jam it down his past orgs throats. Bednar obviously likes young thorobreds and couldn’t find a reg role for Yak.

    For numerous reasons, Nail Yakipov couldnt succeed at the NHL level in a Top 6 scoring role; & he has to own that.

  17. Melvis says:

    I forgot to add. That’s the bottle total since last Aug. I’m also putting 40-50 hours into my work. The booze and the art don’t pair well.

  18. N64 says:

    Melvis: I’m usually only tippling when writing here.

    Oh. A social (media) drinker.

  19. leeinvan says:

    The problem of coarse is that if the Oilers trade for a 4-6 million D man and then late February Sekera says he is ready to come back. The team has to unload at least 4 million salary right away.
    This would put them in a really tight spot.

    Unless they can move a bottom six forward or two in the deal they are mortgaging the future for a d man who will need a new contract that the team can’t afford in a few years. The team is finally building a good prospect farm, trading away your draft picks means you have to find players in free agency and over pay. For the Oilers this is not an option anymore.

    Somehow the team has to figure this out with out hurting the team in a year or so, remember Sekera was and may never be anymore a top d man. So your looking for a #4 -5 d man, the price for that should not be super high.

    The Oilers have a core 3-4 d men with help on the way in 12 months. When this happens they will be young and reasonably cheap at the back.

    It’s great saying trade this person and don’t worry about the season after, the question is though will the player they trade for make the team a serious contender or just a middling team. Neither Krug or Faulk have or will have success in the playoffs because both are soft P.P specialist.

    Krug was horrible in the playoffs and that is why the team is looking to move him.

  20. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    “Hamilton $5.75
    Faulk $4.83
    Pesce $4.025
    TVR $2.3”

    Can we get TVR out of CAR? and he can hebhandle 2RHD duties?

    Heavily sheltered in his results so far, no idea if he can play 2RD.

    He killed 3rd pair minutes (while heavily sheltered) so he’s a bet you can make on moving up, but if I’m Pete I want someone with more track record in the actual minutes.

    When Pesce pushed Faulk to 2RD his results improved, albeit with a good chunk of that improvement probably being Hainsey helping him.

    CAR will keep TVR and move on from Faulk for money and “culture” reasons.

  21. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Still my front runners for taking Lucic at 1 mil retention from us next year.
    Looking for size and veteran presence and physicality – check
    Cap hit only means the floor number – check
    3 mil per in real money is cheaper than a 3rd liner on UFA market – check

    My argument against that is “if that trade was going to get done, it can get done today” and would be done.

    If the trade is for futures then EDM needs to wait until opening night so they can put Rej on LTIR to maximize the LTIR overage.

    Maybe EDM plays vs NJD in Sweden opening night and then pick up Faulk when they hit the Eastern seaboard for their first roadie on the way back here?

  22. jtblack says:

    Melvis:
    Glovjuice,

    Not really. I counted at recycle on Friday. 33 wine bottles. Some of that goes into the cooking. A couple of cognac bottles. I rarely drink beer. Aside from some meals, I’m usually only tippling when writing here.

    Is this 1 week?

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    “Chiarelli could LTIR Sekera early in the season, trade for Krug or Faulk (or other) using just prospects or picks, and would not have to worry about the impact from Sekera’s return because the GM knows Sekera’s injury is so bad he will not return. ”

    This is only really true if Sekera never returns but I don’t imagine he isn’t back next year – I don’t think the 32 year old is going to spend the next 3 years on LTIR.

    I know the back to back major injuries is tough but NHL players come back from the achillies injury all the time.

    I don’t think this team can commit to a major contract with term on the presumption that they will always have the LTIR cushion.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am betting on Puljujarvi “arriving” this year – we all may have different ideas on what it means “to arrive” but, for me, he is on the cusp of earning a top 6 RW job on merit and I think he grabs one shortly in to the season (or even prior to the season).

    Does that look like 20-25-45 or does it look like a massive breakout? We’ll find out.

  25. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Yohann Auvitu, love that guy, said all the same stuff.

    VOR:

    A leading contender for the smartest mind in hockey, Rotenberg is known as the brains of SKA.

    According to whom?

    He’s evidently bright academically, and in business.

    I like what I /can tell/ that he’s doing, conceptually, but the success of the national teams he’s been a part of isn’t overwhelming evidence and SKA is one of the two teams in the KHL that is basically meant to win.

    In case this gets taken by you or others as a certain way, my position on Yakupov is that if you were invested in earnest as an organisaiton in his success, you would have not demonstrated such poor faith in your endeavours so early and so often.

    It’s not a full conversion for a first-overall pick, but there absolutely was a player to be had.

  26. Melvis says:

    N64,

    It’s a four legged Lowetide related walker. I’ve always been plaqued by stage fright. The last two nights I played in a band in front of a packed house were absolute hell.

  27. Melvis says:

    Melvis:
    I forgot to add. That’s the bottle total since last Aug. I’m also putting 40-50 hours a week into my work. The booze and the art don’t pair well.

    jtblack,

    Sheesh.

  28. John Chambers says:

    Re: Faulk

    I suggested this past week that Faulk was the best target and would fit like a glove on the powerplay, but my question is what would CAR want in return?

    They are stacked on D, but thin at C.

    I could see them being interested in Strome, perhaps Marody as the main prospect, but Khaira probably suits their needs and budget the best.

    Jujhar + a 2nd or 3rd? Seems like close to fair value. Can anyone (Toronto) offer a better package?

  29. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – They don’t make trades like they used to, but Chia does now have the opportunity to do a Desjardins LeClair for Recchi type trade

    – It’s not often that a team has a $5.5 Cap room weeks before training camp, with visibility on that

    – Given the importance of Cap, and a new/school old/school divergence on player evaulation (in terms of stats vs. old-school), you wonder if the opportunity for a big trade does present itself?

    – No way can Chia not make a move to get a replacement D for Sek…

    – A big trade could also really energize the team, IMO

  30. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leeinvan:
    The problem of coarse is that if the Oilers trade for a 4-6 million D man and then late February Sekera says he is ready to come back. The team has to unload at least 4 million salary right away.
    This would put them in a really tight spot.

    Unless they can move a bottom six forward or two in the dealthey are mortgaging the future for a d man who will need a new contract that the team can’t afford in a few years. The team is finally building a good prospect farm, trading away your draft picks means you have to find players in free agency and over pay. For the Oilers this is not an option anymore.

    Somehow the team has to figure this out with outhurting the team in a year or so, remember Sekera was and may never be anymore a top d man. So your looking for a #4 -5 d man, the price for that should not be super high.

    The Oilers have a core 3-4 d men with help on the way in 12 months. When this happens they will be young and reasonably cheap at the back.

    It’s great saying trade this person and don’t worry about the season after, the question is though will the player they trade for make the team a serious contender or just a middling team. Neither Krug or Faulk have or will havesuccess in the playoffs because both are soft P.P specialist.

    Krug was horrible in the playoffs and that is why the team is looking to move him.

    My guess is they would LTIR Rej the whole year.

    If he really pushes to get on the roster (doubtful) then you can always trade Faulk as a last resort if you can’t move anyone else.

    RHD are always in demand.

    This assumes Rej wants to come back pre-trade line (which isn’t his current timeline)

    Its not a stretch to think Rej will be on LTIR all year.

    Surgery in August – 8 month time line is April

  31. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: My argument against that is “if that trade was going to get done, it can get done today” and would be done.

    If the trade is for futures then EDM needs to wait until opening night so they can put Rej on LTIR to maximize the LTIR overage.

    Maybe EDM plays vs NJD in Sweden opening night and then pick up Faulk when they hit the Eastern seaboard for their first roadie on the way back here?

    But we can’t do that trade for futures. Sekeras injury means that we are stuck with him and he will likely return but he will not be worth close to his cap hit. Don’t think we can LTIR the length of his contract and even so you have to be cap compliant at the start of the regular season and then you can use his cap hit for replacement.
    We still don’t have a starting goalie signed for next year, Nurse is not signed long term and JP will need a new contract and a lot of smart people think he breaks out this year.
    We cannot bring in another contract without a bigger one leaving.
    If Faulk comes in that means we are trading Nuge for futures and that is not a trade I’m willing to do.

    And I actually like Faulk more than most people. We need a pp qb D. Yes we all know goals on EV are much harder to score than PP but if your pp is not top 5 in the league you are leaving a lot of goals on the table and in the end a pp goal is worth the same on the scoreboard. So I’m ok with my team spending on one offensively minded D.
    Playing Larson 24 min a night and Faulk and Benning 18 min a night with Faulk getting 3 min of pp time I could live with. We’ve been Oiler fans long enough to know veterans on crap teams tend to look crappy because you don’t have much to play for.
    Faulk also provides competition for Bear and Bouchard to have to beat to earn a roster spot.

    But this is all moot without losing some existing contracts

  32. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    Reading yesterday’s discussion about Nail Yakupov I wondered why nobody was factoring in Roman Rotenberg.

    A leading contender for the smartest mind in hockey, Rotenberg is known as the brains of SKA. Rotenberg wanted Nail Yakupov. He signed Yakupov.

    So we know Nail Yakupov will play international hockey for Russia since Rotenberg, who is all of 37, leads the Russian National team. We know Yakupov will get cherry minutes in the KHL.

    All of which raises the question of what does Rotenberg see that 31 NHL GMs don’t.

    A guy with a lot of talent that can score in lesser leagues ok.

  33. leadfarmer says:

    In case you are wondering, last season we left 30 ppg behind if we had a top 5 pp which would have wiped out our entire goal deficit and maybe then some if you take away some empty netters that we gave up

  34. leadfarmer says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    History is full of guys that couldn’t crack NHL lineups but then became stars in Russia. I’m sure VOR is looking for a he watched a lot of tapes and if he changed the angle of his stick by 2 degrees it would fix everything type of answer but in reality it probably is hey Linus Omark couldn’t crack the NHL and now is one of our stars why couldn’t Yakupov do the same kind of answer

  35. Wilde says:

    I’ve got a pet theory that Yanni Gourde is really real and will be one of the best contracts in the league next year and my arg looks really good if you like betweenness scores

  36. Wilde says:

    Also, a note from the Athletic I’m just reading Wheeler’s second interation of ‘The Gifted’ and Evan Bouchard will be number 7, he says it’s running every Friday so September 28 will be Bouchards

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    “Chiarelli could LTIR Sekera early in the season, trade for Krug or Faulk (or other) using just prospects or picks, and would not have to worry about the impact from Sekera’s return because the GM knows Sekera’s injury is so bad he will not return. ”

    This is only really true if Sekera never returns but I don’t imagine he isn’t back next year – I don’t think the 32 year old is going to spend the next 3 years on LTIR.

    I know the back to back major injuries is tough but NHL players come back from the achillies injury all the time.

    I don’t think this team can commit to a major contract with term on the presumption that they will always have the LTIR cushion.

    Making a move in the summer 2019 to clear off the extra cap won’t be a big deal.

    As mentioned earlier, at the very least, Faulk would be moveable but there are many permutations of how to get there.

  38. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer,

    But this is all moot without losing some existing contracts

    You can lose those contracts next summer.

    If Sekera comes back during the year you can move Faulk at the deadline if need be.

  39. Woogie63 says:

    Enstrom just costs money, maybe $2M.

  40. J-Bo says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    They could trade Russell next summer to deal with this issue.

  41. texmex says:

    Upshall coming in on PTO

  42. Oilman99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    As much as I don’t like Faulk, he’s probably a better option than either Russell or Benning at this time for 2RD.

    If you can actually get him cheap (no JP, no Yamamoto, no 2019 1st) then it should probably be done.

    The question is : Will CAR let him go cheap?

    What’s their internal cap?

    They currently have 4 RHD:

    Hamilton $5.75
    Faulk $4.83
    Pesce $4.025
    TVR $2.3

    Its also important to note that Faulk’s actual salary this year and next is $6.0 and actual salary is important to CAR.

    Their entire Dcorps sits at $27.6MM right now, and that is one of the more expensive ones in the league.

    TOR needs RHD too.

    Would they like Faulk?

    They had a pile of prosepcts as currency….

    Also,

    Cap floor is $58.8

    CAR is at $61MM, but only has 11 forwards on the roster (and 7 Dmen + 2 goalies)

    Necas is a lock to play next year, probably Kokkenen as well.Maybe Foegele who got 3 points in his 2 game call up late last year, but they are all ~$850 or so on the cap

    If they subtract Faulk’s $4.83 that puts them at $56.17

    Add rookies:
    McKeowan at 7D $745
    Necas at 12th forward $895
    Kokkanen at 13th F $811
    Foegele at 14th F $746

    And they’re at 59.36

    They’re at the floor without taking back salary.

    Hmmmmmmmmmm.

    There will be time during training camp and the start of the season to assess the play of a healthy Gravel. There is a possibility that the replacement is already in house.He was moving up the chain before his crones problem. Faulk’s salary is an over pay for third pairing dman.

  43. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    “Chiarelli could LTIR Sekera early in the season, trade for Krug or Faulk (or other) using just prospects or picks, and would not have to worry about the impact from Sekera’s return because the GM knows Sekera’s injury is so bad he will not return. ”

    This is only really true if Sekera never returns but I don’t imagine he isn’t back next year – I don’t think the 32 year old is going to spend the next 3 years on LTIR.

    I know the back to back major injuries is tough but NHL players come back from the achillies injury all the time.

    I don’t think this team can commit to a major contract with term on the presumption that they will always have the LTIR cushion.

    They cannot sacrifice another season worrying about next year. Unless he in back to 100% he may be finishing his contract in the AHL. Enstrom makes more sense on a one year deal,future problems solved.

  44. John Chambers says:

    Oilman99: Faulk’s salary is an over pay for third pairing dman.

    Is there such thing as an “overpay” if the team doesn’t use the cap space?

    His contract is both short, and tradeable.

  45. VOR says:

    Wilde:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Yohann Auvitu, love that guy, said all the same stuff.

    According to whom?

    He’s evidently bright academically, and in business.

    I like what I /can tell/ that he’s doing, conceptually, but the success of the national teams he’s been a part of isn’t overwhelming evidence and SKA is one of the two teams in the KHL that is basically meant to win.

    In case this gets taken by you or others as a certain way, my position on Yakupov is that if you were invested in earnest as an organisaiton in his success, you would have not demonstrated such poor faith in your endeavours so early and so often.

    It’s not a full conversion for a first-overall pick, but there absolutely was a player to be had.

    According to Jessica Gelman.

  46. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Enstrom is hard to fit in with the existing group. He’s small and his prospective partners are on the smaller side in Russell or Benning. He’s also injury prone and that won’t get better as he ages. If Bouch makes the roster they have cover on LD in Russell and Gravel.

    It likely comes down to Europe because they need to wait until LTIR, and to see if Bouchard or somebody can push themselves on RD. They will play Bouch if he looks like he can handle the D zone, it’s maybe ill advised but this is the Oilers and the OBC still lurks about.

    Their is also Lagesson who has years of pro experience, plays defensively well and has NHL size, a lot of balls in the air with question marks on them.

  47. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Oilman99: There will be time during training camp and the start of the season to assess the play of a healthy Gravel. There is a possibility that the replacement is already in house.He was moving up the chain before his crones problem. Faulk’s salary is an over pay for third pairing dman.

    My position is that they lost a Dman who had experience being the better player on good 2nd pairing and also being on meh 1st pairings.

    In short, he’s an Actual Top 4 NHL Dman.

    They need to replace him with someone with that experience as well.

    The reason is that injuries in the top 4 will come this year.

    When they do, you need players who won’t get killed moving up into the top 4.

    If you rely on Gravel to be in your 3rd pair you have Nurse, Klefbom and Larsson as your “Actual Top 4 Dmen” with Russell or Benning playing a bit over their head at 2RD.

    Now Larsson hurts his back again.

    You have Nurse and Klefbom and somehow have to make a function top 4 by adding Russell or Benning from the 3rd pair and weaken your 3rd pair as well.

    That’s when the losing streak starts because you have too many players playing above their established NHL ability in the ultra important position of Top 4 Dman.

    Conversely if you have Entrom or Faulk and Larsson goes down you have only one player playing above their head, not two and you’re 3rd pair isn’t a liability either.

    Its a big deal.

    The plan can’t be “I hope 2 Dmen play above their established NHL ability and injuries don’t happen”

    They need to plan for it.

    I expect they will.

  48. pts2pndr says:

    John Chambers:
    Re: Faulk

    I suggested this past week that Faulk was the best target and would fit like a glove on the powerplay, but my question is what would CAR want in return?

    They are stacked on D, but thin at C.

    I could see them being interested in Strome, perhaps Marody as the main prospect, but Khaira probably suits their needs and budget the best.

    Jujhar + a 2nd or 3rd? Seems like close to fair value. Can anyone (Toronto) offer a better package?

    What the Faulk! Khaira is good value and an asset moving forward! After watching Faulk against the Oilers he is questionably better than Benning! We would be getting an expensive older Faulk. Short term gain for long term pain! Loss of Khaira for an overpriced player that we are stuck with for two years! Please explain your thinking because the ligic of this move escapes me.

  49. Scungilli Slushy says:

    texmex:
    Upshall coming in on PTO

    Interesting.

  50. leadfarmer says:

    Oilman99: There will be time during training camp and the start of the season to assess the play of a healthy Gravel. There is a possibility that the replacement is already in house.He was moving up the chain before his crones problem. Faulk’s salary is an over pay for third pairing dman.

    Yeah but Crohns is an absolutely horrendous disease that I would not wish on my worst enemy. I hope he can have a long NHL career but stuff like this is often bad enough to knock a guy out of the NHL as the difference between 3rd pair D and Ahl players often can be pretty small. Hope medical management keeps him symptom free. We all remember what ulcerative colitis did to Fernando Pisani and as a whole Crohns is a much worst disease

  51. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Let me put it this way:

    I don’t think Emelin is very good.

    I would still rather have him than bank on players playing above their established level.

    If you run a top 6 of:

    77-6
    25-4
    Emelin-83

    and injuries hit in the top 4, you at least have a player with top 4 experience to move up and the player you are leaving in the bottom pair is good enough to anchor a bottom pair with a rookie (hopefully)

    The only two Dmen who are still UFA are Enstrom and Emelin.

    Of the two Enstrom has the better results in the last 2 years.

    Yes he’s small, but he had over 700 NHL game and a long history as a top 4 defender and that is the value EDM is missing.

  52. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Still my front runners for taking Lucic at 1 mil retention from us next year.
    Looking for size and veteran presence and physicality – check
    Cap hit only means the floor number – check
    3 mil per in real money is cheaper than a 3rd liner on UFA market – check

    With EDM signing Upshall on a PTO I wonder if Kassian might be the muscle CAR wants?

  53. pts2pndr says:

    John Chambers: Is there such thing as an “overpay” if the team doesn’t use the cap space?

    His contract is both short, and tradeable.

    This is true but how do you reconcile the cost ie Khaira? He is the Swiss knife. Plays wing or center and is physical and low cost! To get in a bidding war with Toronto is folly! Giving up Khaira as the price if the cost will be regretted! We also need the draft picks moving forward!

  54. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Probably there is interest, but I don’t think we have enough depth in that position to move on from Kassian. He’s the type of player that I would counter the modern sub 6 foot defenseman with.

  55. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: With EDM signing Upshall on a PTO I wonder if Kassian might be the muscle CAR wants?

    Stauffer’s tweet about the Upshall signing:

    Scottie Upshall has gone on PTO’s 2 of the last 3 years and earned Contracts:
    St.Louis 2015 (St.Louis)
    Vancouver 2017 (St.Louis).
    He can skate, competes, is smart and can PK.
    Could easily see him earning a contract…and provide the organization…options

    Ohhhhhhhhhh the “…..options” part lends a bit of fire to the “trade” part of my speculation.

  56. John Chambers says:

    pts2pndr: This is true but how do you reconcile the cost ie Khaira? He is the Swiss knife. Plays wing or center and is physical and low cost! To get in a bidding war with Toronto is folly! Giving up Khaira as the price if the cost will be regretted! We also need the draft picks moving forward!

    I like Khaira too. A lot. I’d much prefer we traded Caggiula, or Marody.

    But if Chiarelli doesn’t address the D, there will be no playoffs this year. As several have cited here, Faulk would be useful in a sheltered role 5v5, but would offer a huge boost to the powerplay. The Oilers were last in the league last year in points from defenseman, and he would improve that, along with keep Bouchard in the OHL and Russell onto the left side. There are a variety of benefits from adding this player.

    In fact, Faulk will in all likelihood outscore Jujhar Khraira this year and possibly next. Although it hurts us a bit longer-term, I think we have a good pipeline of wingers emerging that makes the trade attractive short-term, but palatable long-term.

  57. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: With EDM signing Upshall on a PTO I wonder if Kassian might be the muscle CAR wants?

    Kassian’s unit getting scored on in the softest minutes possible during the tough sledding early in the year should be a legitimate concern.

    At the start of last year 55+44 got scored on more than McDavid was outscoring, were taking penalties, and were getting killed on the PK too.

    Then, after the team clawed back into it by Christmas, 44 went 0-6 5v5 goals in the first 4 games after.

    This was made up by three 0-2 games, two against Winnipeg getting scored on a total of 3(three!) times 5v5 by the Matt Hendricks line, then in the 0-2 game against the Kings he was scored on by the Mitchell-Jokinen line(plus the Fanteberg-Forbort pairing).

  58. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Probably there is interest, but I don’t think we have enough depth in that position to move on from Kassian. He’s the type of player that I would counter the modern sub 6 foot defenseman with.

    To this coach and GM, who are on the hot seat, 2RD would matter much more than 4RW, especially with Khaira and Lucic on the roster.

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: Kassian’s unit getting scored on in the softest minutes possible during the tough sledding early in the year should be a legitimate concern.

    At the start of last year 55+44 got scored on more than McDavid was outscoring, were taking penalties, and were getting killed on the PK too.

    Then, after the team clawed back into it by Christmas, 44 went 0-6 5v5 goals in the first 4 games after.

    This was made up by three 0-2 games, two against Winnipeg getting scored on a total of 3(three!) times 5v5 by the Matt Hendricks line, then in the 0-2 game against the Kings he was scored on by the Mitchell-Jokinen line(plus the Fanteberg-Forbort pairing).

    Yeah, after a good 16/17 the 4th was putrid last year.

  60. Wilde says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Probably there is interest, but I don’t think we have enough depth in that position to move on from Kassian. He’s the type of player that I would counter the modern sub 6 foot defenseman with.

    Zack Kassian was on the ice for two goals for versus a sub 6 foot defenseman, one on Goligoski one on Barrie.

    (Barrie was on the ice for two versus Kassian)

    I would posit that there’s very little chance Kassian’s going to make contact with a quick-footed defender on the forecheck.

  61. Richard S.S. says:

    Players who come back early from injury are never at 100% strength, usually much less, but there are outliers that exceed expectations. Andrej Sekera has shown he’s not an outlier by trying to play last year after coming back early. That was not a success. G.M.s must not accept a players word that he’s ready with out seeing him actually play.

    Getting ready for an NHL Season means getting their speed and intensity up to an NHL level. Returning from injury usually puts a player 15-20 or more games behind the rest of the NHL. Without playing actual uptempo games, how does a Player return to NHL form? Does a 10 game conditioning stint in the AHL help/work/be permitted?

    The Replacement for the injured Player doesn’t have to be that good, just better than the Player would be if coming back early. If the injury was severe, Peter Chiarelli is making a trade, of that I’m sure. The Oilers cannot have another “D” disaster like last year. If the injury isn’t severe, a waiver claim might do very well. If the injury is somewhere in between?

    An Andrej Sekera LTIR ($5.5 Million) will cover any replacement Player. It should also cover possible bonus overages to the limit of the LTIR. Peter Chiarelli “knows” the severity of the injury to Sekera. We have to trust he does the right thing in filling the hole.

  62. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: To this coach and GM, who are on the hot seat, 2RD would matter much more than 4RW, especially with Khaira and Lucic on the roster.

    Wait. We’re getting Faulk for Kassian now? Where do I sign up?

    I was thinking the discussion would be a 3rd round pick or similar for Kassian

  63. voxwah says:

    With the LTIR for Andrej Sekera doesn’t a team actually have to spend right to the cap before then they can use the cap space from the LTIR player?

    The Oilers need to leave room for bonus cushions. If they do that they are not right at the cap limit and thus can’t use the LTIR cap space like it is free money. I don’t think it’s as simple as LTIR Sekera and spend his 5.5 million.

    Is that correct? Can anyone elaborate more? Thanks.

  64. rickithebear says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    “Hamilton $5.75
    Faulk $4.83
    Pesce $4.025
    TVR $2.3”

    Can we get TVR out of CAR? and he can hebhandle 2RHD duties?

    Carolina paid for
    A combined Elite HD and 0% corsi Dman in Dehaan

    Why would they give up a top 25 HD dman in TVR.

    Teams are starting to adopt my rover definition.

    1-1-1 structure sucks!

    Once again

    Healthy Oiler D with Top HD history

    Larsson 1st comp with 1-1-1 coverage ability.
    Gravel 2nd comp
    Benning 2nd/3rd comp
    All right dmen

    Russell top 0% corsi dman

    Sbisa RD is Top 45 with like HD Dmen.

    Emelin has top HD numbers facing 1st/2nd/3rd comp with like HD Dmen.
    Though Nashville moved him.

    Will: have to visit the upshall PTO

  65. Scungilli Slushy says:

    voxwah:
    With the LTIR for Andrej Sekera doesn’t a team actually have to spend right to the cap before then they can use the cap space from the LTIR player?

    The Oilers need to leave room for bonus cushions. If they do that they are not right at the cap limit and thus can’t use the LTIR cap space like it is free money. I don’t think it’s as simple as LTIR Sekera and spend his 5.5 million.

    Is that correct? Can anyone elaborate more? Thanks.

    The cap relief is up to the amount of the player’s cap hit, that is spent over the salary cap. If you’re not over the cap there is no cap relief.

    So if they acquired Faulk and signed Upshall and signed Nurse, factor in bonuses etc, they can go over the cap 5.5M. If Sekera comes back in season they’ll have to shed cap possibly to stay under. They could trade Connor, that would relieve a lot of cap.

  66. v4ance says:

    voxwah,

    LTIR is an allowance to spend over the official Cap limit up to the amount of contract that is out of the lineup due to injury.

    For example, if the hypothetical cap is 80 mil and you have 78 mil in current contracts, if a player with a 5 mil cap hit goes down, you could sign a replacement player to a $2 mil contract and not use LTIR at all.

    To maximize LTIR spending, you’d sign a $2mil player to get you to $80 mil limit and then on first day of the season, you place the injured $5 mil player on LTIR to activate the extra cap room to spend up to $85 million assuming that injury is season ending.

    If you project that the injured player will return halfway thru the season, you could only spend $2.5 million of the LTIR money because the CBA mandates that the cap spending can’t exceed the projected maximum $80 million at ANY time during the season. If the injury will take him out for 80% of the season, you can spend up to 80% of 5 mil or 4 million in LTIR cap money. The funny thing is that the CBA doesn’t actually specify what the penalties are for going over the cap midway thru the season but everyone suspects that it’s a Bettman decision if it happens.

    If you signed a $5 million replacement player at the start of the year and the injury was less severe than expected, the returning player would have to wait until the team sheds some cap money via waiver/trade/buried contract to allow the injured player’s salary to fit under the remaining cap room.

    You see all sorts of weird roster moves at the beginning of the year to shed more cap early so that cap room can be used later in the season for a trade or an upgrade midseason.

  67. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    leadfarmer,

    But this is all moot without losing some existing contracts

    You can lose those contracts next summer.

    If Sekera comes back during the year you can move Faulk at the deadline if need be.

    If the Oilers manage the cap during the season, there shouldn’t be a problem bringing Sekera back at the deadline with Faulk on the roster. Teams bring in high AAV players all the time at the deadline and they can be over the cap on a daily basis after the deadline and still be under after 82 games, if they have penny pinched and stayed under on a daily basis before the deadline.

    The only day that one has to be under the cap is the first day of the season and an AAV basis, and at the end of the season, based on salaries actually paid out.

  68. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Probably there is interest, but I don’t think we have enough depth in that position to move on from Kassian. He’s the type of player that I would counter the modern sub 6 foot defenseman with.

    Kassian was useless last season.

  69. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, after a good 16/17 the 4th was putrid last year.

    After they dumped Pitlick and Lander.

  70. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    That’s not the issue at all. The problem is next season. You just added almost 5 mil in cap. Cap is not going up 5 mil. Woodguy is saying we can just fix it next offseason. That requires teams wanting to help you or giving them assets for helping you.Sekera is going to have negative value, chances are Lucic will to same as Russell.
    Whatever the cap rises it’s not going to be enough for JPs likely raise, a starting G or Nurses long term contract.
    So either someone is kind enough to take Sekera Russell or Lucic off our hands or we are dumping Nuge or one of our D

  71. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    “The plan can’t be “I hope 2 Dmen play above their established NHL ability and injuries don’t happen”

    But the same.Mgmt group had exactly that plan last year. hmmmmm

  72. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer:
    godot10,

    That’s not the issue at all.The problem is next season.You just added almost 5 mil in cap.Cap is not going up 5 mil.Woodguy is saying we can just fix it next offseason.That requires teams wanting to help you or giving them assets for helping you.Sekera is going to have negative value, chances are Lucic will to same as Russell.
    Whatever the cap rises it’s not going to be enough for JPs likely raise, a starting G or Nurses long term contract.
    So either someone is kind enough to take Sekera Russell or Lucic off our hands or we are dumping Nuge or one of our D

    Given Sekera’s injury he may be hard to move until he shows he can play still which might mean the year after this.

    Russell can be traded even if for nothing next summer, he was a UFA signing so no assets were used on him other than cap. NHL D that can still skate have value.

    If Luc has a decent year I’m sure he’s moveable as well, again the return is less important than the cap as he was a UFA signing.

    Or maybe they have a lucky season and all 3 look like studs and they get a haul of nice new things for them all.

  73. Jaxon says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I was reading an interview with a former NHLer who is in the KHL now and he was talking about how “beautiful the Russian game is compared to the NHL”

    He mentioned that creativity with the puck is encouraged and that strict adherence to systems that most NHL teams demand doesn’t exist in the KHL. I forget which player it was, but he was Russian who have 100-200 NHL games played iirc.

    I bet it was this article by Tarasenko in The Players Tribune.

    https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/vladimir-tarasenko-st-louis-blues-nhl

  74. blainer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: My position is that they lost a Dman who had experience being the better player on good 2nd pairing and also being on meh 1st pairings.

    In short, he’s an Actual Top 4 NHL Dman.

    They need to replace him with someone with that experience as well.

    The reason is that injuries in the top 4 will come this year.

    When they do, you need players who won’t get killed moving up into the top 4.

    If you rely on Gravel to be in your 3rd pair you have Nurse, Klefbom and Larsson as your “Actual Top 4 Dmen” with Russell or Benning playing a bit over their head at 2RD.

    Now Larsson hurts his back again.

    You have Nurse and Klefbom and somehow have to make a function top 4 by adding Russell or Benning from the 3rd pair and weaken your 3rd pair as well.

    That’s when the losing streak starts because you have too many players playing above their established NHL ability in the ultra important position of Top 4 Dman.

    Conversely if you have Entrom or Faulk and Larsson goes down you have only one player playing above their head, not two and you’re 3rd pair isn’t a liability either.

    Its a big deal.

    The plan can’t be “I hope 2 Dmen play above their established NHL ability and injuries don’t happen”

    They need to plan for it.

    I expect they will.

    One HAS to believe that they learned what can happen when you don’t address the weak spots on the team.

    Last year we had no replacement for Sek or enough depth on the wings and we all witnessed what happened as a result of that.

    Not replacing Sekera with a top 4 D should and most likely will lead to the termination of Chia IMO and he knows it too.. I just can’t see Chia not acting on this as WG is correct … we need Faulk or Enstrom or someone else who can play top 4 and has a history of success doing it.

    I suspect Chia gets a player none of us expect.. Just hope he gets it right.

  75. hunter1909 says:

    blainer: One HAS to believe that they learned what can happen when you don’t address the weak spots on the team.

    Last year we had no replacement for Sek or enough depth on the wings and we all witnessed what happened as a result of that.

    Not replacing Sekera with a top 4 D should and most likely will lead to the termination of Chia IMO and he knows it too.. I just can’t see Chia not acting on this as WG is correct … we need Faulk or Enstrom or someone else who can play top 4 and has a history of success doing it.

    I suspect Chia gets a player none of us expect.. Just hope he gets it right.

    The level of pure panic accurately reflects the typical 2018 Oilers fan. Including me lol

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    As much as I don’t like Faulk, he’s probably a better option than either Russell or Benning at this time for 2RD.

    If you can actually get him cheap (no JP, no Yamamoto, no 2019 1st) then it should probably be done.

    The question is : Will CAR let him go cheap?

    What’s their internal cap?

    They currently have 4 RHD:

    Hamilton $5.75
    Faulk $4.83
    Pesce $4.025
    TVR $2.3

    Its also important to note that Faulk’s actual salary this year and next is $6.0 and actual salary is important to CAR.

    Their entire Dcorps sits at $27.6MM right now, and that is one of the more expensive ones in the league.

    TOR needs RHD too.

    Would they like Faulk?

    They had a pile of prosepcts as currency….

    Also,

    Cap floor is $58.8

    CAR is at $61MM, but only has 11 forwards on the roster (and 7 Dmen + 2 goalies)

    Necas is a lock to play next year, probably Kokkenen as well.Maybe Foegele who got 3 points in his 2 game call up late last year, but they are all ~$850 or so on the cap

    If they subtract Faulk’s $4.83 that puts them at $56.17

    Add rookies:
    McKeowan at 7D $745
    Necas at 12th forward $895
    Kokkanen at 13th F $811
    Foegele at 14th F $746

    And they’re at 59.36

    They’re at the floor without taking back salary.

    Hmmmmmmmmmm.

    Is Faulk a better option than Benning or Russell? Yes, Russell is not good enough at 2RD and Benning has shown to excell at 3RD but struggle at 2RD, however, from what I saw of Faulk last year – (most of 4 games I think), he was a tire fire in his own zone in all of them – like really bad. Like so bad I think he might make the team worse.

    I have not looked at any numbers to back this up – just the eye test from recollection.

    Also, he’s signed for next year as well and, presumably Sekera is off LTIR and the cushion gone (and that could even happen this year) so we have the extra Faulk cap hit for next year…..

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m thinking:

    77-6
    25-Faulk
    4-83
    Gravel

    Each pair has a puck mover and a “defensive” Dman

    You probably can’t play 77 with Faulk as they both are not good defensively in the Rickibox and that pairing could be a disaster unless heavily sheltered from the other team’s best.

    I love me some Darnell but I’m not quite sure he’s polished enough himself to off-set how bad Faulk is, in particular with top 4 minutes. In my mind, Faulk is really really bad defensively.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    leeinvan:
    The problem of coarse is that if the Oilers trade for a 4-6 million D man and then late February Sekera says he is ready to come back. The team has to unload at least 4 million salary right away.
    This would put them in a really tight spot.

    Unless they can move a bottom six forward or two in the dealthey are mortgaging the future for a d man who will need a new contract that the team can’t afford in a few years. The team is finally building a good prospect farm, trading away your draft picks means you have to find players in free agency and over pay. For the Oilers this is not an option anymore.

    Somehow the team has to figure this out with outhurting the team in a year or so, remember Sekera was and may never be anymore a top d man. So your looking for a #4 -5 d man, the price for that should not be super high.

    The Oilers have a core 3-4 d men with help on the way in 12 months. When this happens they will be young and reasonably cheap at the back.

    It’s great saying trade this person and don’t worry about the season after, the question is though will the player they trade for make the team a serious contender or just a middling team. Neither Krug or Faulk have or will havesuccess in the playoffs because both are soft P.P specialist.

    Krug was horrible in the playoffs and that is why the team is looking to move him.

    I agree with this – management needs to be very careful with taking on any material cap as Sekera will be coming of LTIR and, if its not this year (and it probably is), it will be next year.

    I don’t imagine he’s done and spending the next 3 years on LTIR.

  79. pts2pndr says:

    John Chambers: I like Khaira too. A lot. I’d much prefer we traded Caggiula, or Marody.

    But if Chiarelli doesn’t address the D, there will be no playoffs this year. As several have cited here, Faulk would be useful in a sheltered role 5v5, but would offer a huge boost to the powerplay. The Oilers were last in the league last year in points from defenseman, and he would improve that, along with keep Bouchard in the OHL and Russell onto the left side. There are a variety of benefits from adding this player.

    In fact, Faulk will in all likelihood outscore Jujhar Khraira this year and possibly next. Although it hurts us a bit longer-term, I think we have a good pipeline of wingers emerging that makes the trade attractive short-term, but palatable long-term.

    Reasonable but the physical and skating not to mention the short term seems like a bad bet from my prospective! I do respect the overall thought and prospective.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – They don’t make trades like they used to, but Chia does now have the opportunity to do a Desjardins LeClair for Recchi type trade

    – It’s not often that a team has a $5.5 Cap room weeks before training camp, with visibility on that

    – Given the importance of Cap, and a new/school old/school divergence on player evaulation (in terms of stats vs. old-school), you wonder if the opportunity for a big trade does present itself?

    – No way can Chia not make a move to get a replacement D for Sek…

    – A big trade could also really energize the team, IMO

    They don’t have $5.5M of cap room – they have some cushion to go over the cap temporarily but it goes away the second Sekera is deemed fit to play and activated – that very well could be this year and, even if its not this year, it will be next year.

    That $5.5M cap hit is coming back (unless he spends the next 3 years on LTIR which I doubt).

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: My guess is they would LTIR Rej the whole year.

    If he really pushes to get on the roster (doubtful) then you can always trade Faulk as a last resort if you can’t move anyone else.

    RHD are always in demand.

    This assumes Rej wants to come back pre-trade line (which isn’t his current timeline)

    Its not a stretch to think Rej will be on LTIR all year.

    Surgery in August – 8 month time line is April

    Even if he doesn’t come back until next year, he will be back next year and then we have the Faulk contract.

    Sure, its as easy as trading Faulk away but that may not be that easy.

    He’s been regressing offensively and is awful defensively – we could be acquiring another negative value contract that further constrains us.

    I wouldn’t be acquiring any cap with term due to Reggie’s injury unless its a player that is part of the future and I don’t see Faulk as part of the future.

  82. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: Kassian was useless last season.

    Deployment and getting stuck on the fourth line while Drake gets the push could have something to do with that. People live up and or down to expectations! Does what is required in year one and lives up to his word in year one and then shat on in year two! Where is there any incentive?

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Making a move in the summer 2019 to clear off the extra cap won’t be a big deal.

    how to get there.
    As mentioned earlier, at the very least, Faulk would be moveable but there are many permutations of

    I don’t think this is necessarily true.

    It sure wasn’t easy for the Oilers to clear cap space this summer, in fact, they weren’t able to do it.

    There is no assurance that Faulk is moveable at the deadline or in the off-season – I’m sure one year ago we would have said that same think about Lucic (yes, I understand, the terms of the two contracts are important but still).

    I hate the thought of bringing in a player with many warts knowing that we will HAVE to move him or others in less than a year.

  84. godot10 says:

    pts2pndr: Deployment and getting stuck on the fourth line while Drake gets the push could have something to do with that. People live up and or down to expectations! Does what is required in year one and lives up to his word in year one and then shat on in year two! Where is there any incentive?

    Chiarelli rewarded Kassian with a contract 1 year longer than veteran 4th liners typically get at twice the salary, and he responded to that carrot by laying a big less than zero in effort.

    He should have been dancing on the ceiling instead of pouting in the basement.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    J-Bo:
    OriginalPouzar,

    They could trade Russell next summer to deal with this issue.

    His NTC does become limited and he can be asked to provide a list of 10 teams. So, we have less than a third of the league to deal with. There is no assurance that a trade can be consummated for an overpaid player with 2 years of team and definitely no assurance we can do so without retaining or some sort of other egregious sweetener.

    We say this off-season how tough it can be to move cap space out, they weren’t able to do it. I am not comfortable acquiring a material contract with the knowledge that it will 100% force the team to move out cap.

    Such a risk.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: They cannot sacrifice another season worrying about next year. Unless he in back to 100% he may be finishing his contract in the AHL. Enstrom makes more sense on a one year deal,future problems solved.

    They cannot sacrifice the future in order to try and find an injury replacement for this year – taking on a material cap hit could do just that.

    Sekera would have a cap hit of just under $4.5M if playing in the minor leagues – add the salary of his replacement on the roster and this simply won’t be the case.

    I agree, 100% on Enstrom – he is my preferred approach. He’s got injury concerns but, whatever. He played top 4 minutes almost all of last year (granted with Byfuguelin). I’d be just fine with him as 3LD and he has the potential to move up and not get caved.

  87. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: My position is that they lost a Dman who had experience being the better player on good 2nd pairing and also being on meh 1st pairings.

    In short, he’s an Actual Top 4 NHL Dman.

    They need to replace him with someone with that experience as well.

    The reason is that injuries in the top 4 will come this year.

    When they do, you need players who won’t get killed moving up into the top 4.

    If you rely on Gravel to be in your 3rd pair you have Nurse, Klefbom and Larsson as your “Actual Top 4 Dmen” with Russell or Benning playing a bit over their head at 2RD.

    Now Larsson hurts his back again.

    You have Nurse and Klefbom and somehow have to make a function top 4 by adding Russell or Benning from the 3rd pair and weaken your 3rd pair as well.

    That’s when the losing streak starts because you have too many players playing above their established NHL ability in the ultra important position of Top 4 Dman.

    Conversely if you have Entrom or Faulk and Larsson goes down you have only one player playing above their head, not two and you’re 3rd pair isn’t a liability either.

    Its a big deal.

    The plan can’t be “I hope 2 Dmen play above their established NHL ability and injuries don’t happen”

    They need to plan for it.

    I expect they will.

    I agree with your logic but what price would be fair for Faulk?

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Enstrom is hard to fit in with the existing group. He’s small and his prospective partners are on the smaller side in Russell or Benning. He’s also injury prone and that won’t get better as he ages. If Bouch makes the roster they have cover on LD in Russell and Gravel.

    It likely comes down to Europe because they need to wait until LTIR, and to see if Bouchard or somebody can push themselves on RD. They will play Bouch if he looks like he can handle the D zone, it’s maybe ill advised but this is the Oilers and the OBC still lurks about.

    Their is also Lagesson who has years of pro experience, plays defensively well and has NHL size, a lot of balls in the air with question marks on them.

    I’ve got Lagesson as a darkhorse for NHL games this year and think he’s more polished and NHL ready than Jones but I would not want to count on that at the beginning of the year. He only has one year of pro experience, not years (he came through the USDP and NCAA before played in Sweden this past year).

  89. Georgexs says:

    VOR’s thinking on KY making the team this year got me interested in draft data.

    Here are some scoring stats and demographics for forward draft picks by round. I’m looking at drafts from 2000 forward.

    Round, Ave. PPG, Median PPG*, Player Count

    1, .58, .49, 307
    2, .44, .31, 192
    3, .37, .29, 132
    4, .31, .26, 103
    5, .34, .24, 91
    6, .36, .29, 84
    7, .39, .28, 63

    * I only looked at players with at least 40 career games when calculating medians.

    – The NHL seems to do a good job of drafting and developing first round forwards; they stand out.

    – The median for second round forwards isn’t that different from the medians from later rounds; suggesting the typical second round forward who plays in the NHL isn’t that different from the typical forward selected in later rounds.

    – There does, however, seem to be more of an upside for second round forwards as suggested by the larger discrepancy between the average and the median. The better than median second round forwards seem to produce more offense than the better than median forwards from later rounds.

    – The third and later rounds look similar on the stats with a noticeable dip in the 4th and 5th rounds: more role players, maybe, and fewer unexpected hits; maybe the league expects a type of player out of these rounds and offense doesn’t index as heavily

    – As a group, players who make it to the NHL from the 6th and 7th rounds look very similar in their stats to players taken in round 3. It still might not be a meritocracy when it comes to opportunity. Not unexpectedly, lower round players have to show better offense than mid-round players to find a home.

  90. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: Wait.We’re getting Faulk for Kassian now?Where do I sign up?

    I was thinking the discussion would be a 3rd round pick or similar for Kassian

    You’d have to add something. I suggest the ubiquitous 2nd.

  91. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear,

    Why would they give up a top 25 HD dman in TVR.

    Your love of 3rd pair Dmen will never die.

    Same mistake that other fancystats people make.

    Did you read Dellow’s latest?

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    “The plan can’t be “I hope 2 Dmen play above their established NHL ability and injuries don’t happen”

    But the same.Mgmt group had exactly that plan last year.hmmmmm

    The GM admitted he fucked up by not replacing Sekera in his year end avail.

    He can’t not do something.

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    godot10,

    That’s not the issue at all.The problem is next season.You just added almost 5 mil in cap.Cap is not going up 5 mil.Woodguy is saying we can just fix it next offseason.That requires teams wanting to help you or giving them assets for helping you.Sekera is going to have negative value, chances are Lucic will to same as Russell.
    Whatever the cap rises it’s not going to be enough for JPs likely raise, a starting G or Nurses long term contract.
    So either someone is kind enough to take Sekera Russell or Lucic off our hands or we are dumping Nuge or one of our D

    Faulk is more or less a rental anyhow

    Won’t be hard to move in the offseason

  94. Georgexs says:

    Here’s a look at the results for forwards picked in the top, middle, and bottom thirds of the first round:

    Segment, Ave. PPG, Median PPG, Player Count

    1-10, .67, .60, 118
    11-20, .49, .39, 91
    21-30, .49, .41, 98

    – Top 10 forward picks stand out. The NHL seems to get the ordering correct at the top end.

    – There doesn’t seem to be much difference in the results or player counts for first round forward selections taken after the top 10.

    Here’s how things look by the second round:

    Segment, Ave. PPG, Median PPG, Player Count

    31-40, .41, .30, 61
    41-50, .43, .30, 62
    51-60, .44, .34, 58

    – Again, no real difference in the numbers at all.

    – This suggests to me that NHL teams are mostly able to figure out who belongs at the top of a draft. After that, what matters is that you’re some team’s first round pick or you’re some team’s second round pick. That matters more than where you were picked in the first round (if you were picked outside of the top 10) or where you were picked in the second round. Where you were picked tells us less than the fact that someone picked you.

  95. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jaxon: I bet it was this article by Tarasenko in The Players Tribune.

    https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/vladimir-tarasenko-st-louis-blues-nhl

    Wasn’t that one, but thanks for the link. Good stuff there.

  96. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Is Faulk a better option than Benning or Russell? Yes, Russell is not good enough at 2RD and Benning has shown to excell at 3RD but struggle at 2RD, however, from what I saw of Faulk last year – (most of 4 games I think), he was a tire fire in his own zone in all of them – like really bad.Like so bad I think he might make the team worse.

    I have not looked at any numbers to back this up – just the eye test from recollection.

    Also, he’s signed for next year as well and, presumably Sekera is off LTIR and the cushion gone (and that could even happen this year) so we have the extra Faulk cap hit for next year…..

    Yeah, I have him being better specifically as a 2RD than Russell.

    Benning *might* be ok, but doesn’t have a track record you can trust yet.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The GM admitted he fucked up by not replacing Sekera in his year end avail.

    He can’t not do something.

    Last year, replacing Sekera would have been replacing the incumbent 2LD (and arguably top d-man for the year) who polished Kris Russell for the year.

    This year, Darnell Nurse is the incumbent 2LD and, although Sekera has a long history as a top 4, his play this year was a bit of an unknown and he was slated for 3LD and injury cover in the top 4.

    To me, the replacement is Toby Enstrom on a one-year deal that does not cause problems when Sekera comes off LTIR – he can slot in a 3LD and provide cover in the top 4.

  98. pitlickdinner says:

    VOR,

    i’m interested why you think he’s so smart? i hope it’s not his business accomplishments. i think his family may have had something to do with it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Romanovich_Rotenberg
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arkady_Rotenberg

  99. Georgexs says:

    Just for fun, here are the first round forward picks since 2000 with the highest PPG (for players with a minimum of 40 GP) by draft position:

    Pick, Player, PPG

    1, Sidney Crosby, 1.29
    2, Evgeni Malkin, 1.19
    3, Jonathan Toews, 0.85
    4, Nicklas Backstrom, 0.98
    5, Phil Kessel, 0.81
    6, Sean Monahan, 0.72
    7, Clayton Keller, 0.79
    8, William Nylander, 0.73
    9, Logan Couture, 0.75
    10, Mikko Rantanen, 0.74
    11, Anze Kopitar, 0.90
    12, Bryan Little, 0.63
    13, Alexander Semin, 0.80
    14, Jaden Schwartz, 0.71
    15, Alexander Radulov, 0.73
    16, Mathew Barzal, 1.01
    17, Zach Parise, 0.79
    18, Teuvo Teravainen, 0.54
    19, Ryan Getzlaf, 0.95
    20, Alex Frolov, 0.69
    21, Wojtek Wolski, 0.59
    22, Claude Giroux, 0.92
    23, Brock Boeser, 0.85
    24, T.J. Oshie, 0.70
    25, David Pastrnak, 0.80
    26, Evgeny Kuznetsov, 0.78
    27, Vladislav Namestnikov, 0.45
    28, Corey Perry, 0.80
    29, Steve Downie, 0.45
    30, Rickard Rakell, 0.63

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: His NTC does become limited and he can be asked to provide a list of 10 teams.So, we have less than a third of the league to deal with.There is no assurance that a trade can be consummated for an overpaid player with 2 years of team and definitely no assurance we can do so without retaining or some sort of other egregious sweetener.

    We say this off-season how tough it can be to move cap space out, they weren’t able to do it. I am not comfortable acquiring a material contract with the knowledge that it will 100% force the team to move out cap.

    Such a risk.

    Which cap space was Pete trying to trade that he couldn’t?

    Gryba?

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, I have him being better specifically as a 2RD than Russell.

    Benning *might* be ok, but doesn’t have a track record you can trust yet.

    I also don’t trust Faulk at all 2RD, in fact, I trust him less than Benning or Russell. He was that bad defensively this past year and he had 12, yes, 12, even strength points along with a team worst plus/minus and I don’t think he was playing the tough minutes night in and night out.

    I’m hesitant to trust Faulk at 3RD let along 2RD.

    Also, trading him in the off-season may not be nearly as easy as you imply, in my opinion.

    What if he continues to regress offensively and remains just as shitty defensively? What if he breaks his leg in November and misses the rest of the season.

    He is not a good enough player to risk that cap issues that could very well come with his contract when Sekera returns.

  102. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    pts2pndr: I agree with your logic but what price would be fair for Faulk?

    I dunno.

    Kassian/Khaira and a 2nd?

  103. jtblack says:

    Georgexs:
    Just for fun, here are the first round forward picks since 2000 with the highest PPG (for players with a minimum of 40 GP) by draft position:

    Pick, Player, PPG

    1, Sidney Crosby, 1.29
    2, Evgeni Malkin, 1.19
    3, Jonathan Toews, 0.85
    4, Nicklas Backstrom, 0.98
    5, Phil Kessel, 0.81
    6, Sean Monahan, 0.72
    7, Clayton Keller, 0.79
    8, William Nylander, 0.73
    9, Logan Couture, 0.75
    10, Mikko Rantanen, 0.74
    11, Anze Kopitar, 0.90
    12, Bryan Little, 0.63
    13, Alexander Semin, 0.80
    14, Jaden Schwartz, 0.71
    15, Alexander Radulov, 0.73
    16, Mathew Barzal, 1.01
    17, Zach Parise, 0.79
    18, Teuvo Teravainen, 0.54
    19, Ryan Getzlaf, 0.95
    20, Alex Frolov, 0.69
    21, Wojtek Wolski, 0.59
    22, Claude Giroux, 0.92
    23, Brock Boeser, 0.85
    24, T.J. Oshie, 0.70
    25, David Pastrnak, 0.80
    26, Evgeny Kuznetsov, 0.78
    27, Vladislav Namestnikov, 0.45
    28, Corey Perry, 0.80
    29, Steve Downie, 0.45
    30, Rickard Rakell, 0.63

    Where’s McD?

  104. Georgexs says:

    And here are the second round forward picks since 2000 with the highest PPG (for players with a minimum of 40 GP) by draft position:

    Pick, Player, PPG

    31, Tyler Pitlick, 0.30
    32, Derek Roy, 0.71
    33, James Neal, 0.70
    34, Ryan Stoa, 0.18
    35, Sebastian Aho, 0.71
    36, Jarret Stoll, 0.44
    37, Boone Jenner, 0.47
    38, Alex Chiasson, 0.33
    39, Alex DeBrincat, 0.63
    40, Michal Repik, 0.28
    41, Bryan Bickell, 0.34
    42, Victor Rask, 0.50
    43, Brandon Saad, 0.59
    44, Paul Stastny, 0.78
    45, Patrice Bergeron, 0.76
    46, Dan Fritsche, 0.30
    47, Tyler Toffoli, 0.59
    48, #N/A, #N/A
    49, Michael Cammalleri, 0.71
    50, Milan Lucic, 0.59
    51, Derek Stepan, 0.70
    52, Richard Panik, 0.38
    53, William Karlsson, 0.48
    54, Artem Anisimov, 0.50
    55, Jason Pominville, 0.71
    56, Patrick O’Sullivan, 0.48
    57, Matt Stajan, 0.41
    58, Nikita Kucherov, 0.92
    59, Jason Zucker, 0.52
    60, Brandon Dubinsky, 0.56

  105. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Last year, replacing Sekera would have been replacing the incumbent 2LD (and arguably top d-man for the year) who polished Kris Russell for the year.

    This year, Darnell Nurse is the incumbent 2LD and, although Sekera has a long history as a top 4, his play this year was a bit of an unknown and he was slated for 3LD and injury cover in the top 4.

    To me, the replacement is Toby Enstrom on a one-year deal that does not cause problems when Sekera comes off LTIR – he can slot in a 3LD and provide cover in the top 4.

    I would rather Enstrom for just cash than Faulk for assests.

    I think I’d rather Emelin for just cash than Faulk for assests, but that’s closer.

    There’s an argument that a healthy Sekera is still ahead of Nurse.

  106. Georgexs says:

    jtblack: Where’s McD?

    Here’s the entire 1OV forward list:

    Sidney Crosby, 1.29
    Connor McDavid, 1.22
    Alex Ovechkin, 1.12
    Patrick Kane, 1.01
    Steven Stamkos, 1.01
    Ilya Kovalchuk, 1.00
    John Tavares, 0.93
    Auston Matthews, 0.92
    Taylor Hall, 0.90
    Nathan MacKinnon, 0.81
    Rick Nash, 0.76
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 0.68
    Nico Hischier, 0.63
    Nail Yakupov, 0.39

  107. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer: Wait.We’re getting Faulk for Kassian now?Where do I sign up?

    I was thinking the discussion would be a 3rd round pick or similar for Kassian

    Sekera with
    Faulk 3.02 evga/60
    you need 3.31 evgf fwds to be Wild card competitive
    67/435 Fwds can

    Mcnabb .72 evg60
    you need 1.03 evgf fwds to be WCard competitive
    432/435 Fwds can

    Russell 1.45 evg60
    you need 1.76 evgf Fwds to be WCard competitive.
    370/435 fwds can

    Davidson 1.97 Evg60
    you need 2.28 evgf feds to be WCard competitive.
    341/435 can

    I want strong goal diff results.

    Rovers like Faulk Suck!
    They Can cancel out 20M+ worth of top 6 forwards even offensive affect.
    That is just brutal cap mgmt.

    You win games by outscoring.
    I will say it for the umpteenth time.
    1G beats 0
    2g beat 1
    3G beat 2
    4 goals beat 3
    High GF forwards cost huge cap dollars
    High GF rovers cost stupid cap dollars.

    Top GA (HD/0% Corsi) dmen are resonable to low cap dollars.
    Bott 2nd 3rd fwds who can out score them cost reasonable to low cap dollars.

    Mcdavid C (8yr) 12.5M – he can make 2 Ahl players top 3-6 players
    Draisaitl C/RW (7yr) 8.5M
    RNH C/LW (3yr) 6M – can run PvP or be a 1.00 PPG player with top 6 fwds against 2nd or lower comp
    Strome C/W (2yr) 3.1M showing signs of 1st/2nd comp center ability
    Reider W (1yr) RFA 2M needed skating even PK fwd cup core depth
    JP RW (1yr) RFA .9 – 1.75M needed skating even fwd cup core depth
    ———————————- 3 potential Top 125 fwd pairs.
    Brodziak (2yr) 1.15M neededskating even PK fwd cup core depth
    Khaira C/W (1 yr) RFA .675M needed skating even /pk fwd cup core depth
    3 potentsial Top 125 fwd Pr 33.85M
    2 Top 70:PK fwd PR 1.83M

    Larrson RD (3yr) 4.17M 1st comp HD – Cup Core
    Russell LD/RD (3yr) 4M 1st 2nd comp 0% Corsi D – paired with HD Cup Core
    Benning RD (2yr) 1.9M 2nd/3rd comp HD – Cup Core
    Gravel RD (1yr) .7M 2nd/3 rd comp HD – Cup Core
    4 Cup Core D 10.77M

    Talbot G (1 yr) 4.17M Top 10 HD goalie – cup core
    1 Cup Core starter 4.17M

    This is a repetitive conf final structure with a good HD sys coach that quick transitions to Fwds
    8fwds 35.68
    4D 10.77
    1G 4.17
    Better than standard cup core 50.62m

    The oilers fan in me would love TVR!
    VGK moved him cause thier were better transition passers in the 9 HD dmen to choose from.

    Sbisa RD 1st comp Top 60-70; 2nd comp Top 45 HD
    he was one of the better transition passing HD Dman VGK choose.

    Emelin LD 1/2/3 Top 60 HD might give better top end (1st) HD flexibility.

  108. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: Chiarelli rewarded Kassian with a contract 1 year longer than veteran 4th liners typically get at twice the salary, and he responded to that carrot by laying a big less than zero in effort.

    He should have been dancing on the ceiling instead of pouting in the basement.

    Coach management disconnect! Do not think Kassian was treated fairly! Doesn’t put him in a special category! Should have been moved up to third line! If he was a fourth line player he should not have been resigned. I am not sure this whole thing is on the player!

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear,

    OriginalPouzar,

    I certainly have time for “Faulk isn’t good defensively”

    I’ve railing on the same subject myself.

    My point is that EDM requires a player with top 4 expereince.

    Even Emelin will be better than Gravel or other 7D options.

    EDM needs someone with top 4 experience.

    The FA option are Enstrom who might not want to come back to the NHL and Emelin, who is pretty meh.

    The only obvious trade option is Faulk as he is superfluous on CAR’s roster and they are an internal cap team with the kicker that I doubt he costs much to acquire.

    I’m all for better bets, but they *must* add someone with that experience imo.

  110. rickithebear says:

    George break up thier ppg by situation.

    RNH was .84 PPG in his 18 year season.
    One of the 3 best PPG/season GAA in 18 yr seasons in the modern era.(67-68 to 17-18)

    He runs PVP from age 19.

    2 shoulder injured PVP years
    Seson avg 59gm 10G 32a 42p

    Healthy PvP seasons
    79gm 21g 31a 52p

    2 periods of 2nd comp with eberle and Mcdavid suggest
    32-40g 75-85p

    A break down that makes sense.

  111. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    rickithebear,

    OriginalPouzar,

    I certainly have time for “Faulk isn’t good defensively”

    I’ve railing on the same subject myself.

    My point is that EDM requires a player with top 4 expereince.

    Even Emelin will be better than Gravel or other 7D options.

    EDM needs someone with top 4 experience.

    The FA option are Enstrom who might not want to come back to the NHL and Emelin, who is pretty meh.

    The only obvious trade option is Faulk as he is superfluous on CAR’sroster and they are an internal cap team with the kicker that I doubt he costs much to acquire.

    I’m all for better bets, but they *must* add someone with that experience imo.

    Oh agree system repeatability is a priority.

    More experienced can step in.

    For choices for best goal diff options.

    All the shot desity, Off Goal success, def GA success data says
    rovers are the +ve goal diff hockey anti christ.

  112. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Look no one is saying they are thrilled with the player. He is a stopgap option for 2 years until our internal options develop. Then you don’t need to negotiate with him.
    But one day you will have to realize you can not compare 3rd pairing D to guys that are top 4 defensemen. TVR is so great and Faulk sucks right. Well if that was the case why didn’t TVR steal some of Faulks minutes? Faulk plays 22 min to TVRs 17 so why didn’t they make them equal.
    But you continue comparing apples and oranges
    Until the day you come to the realization
    All Hail Mark Fistric the greatest defensemen to walk Shawshank

  113. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Yet all the smart men in the league have tore up the Ricki system and are covering the Theodore’s and Brandon Mantour’s over Rickis 3rd pairing stack them up in front of the goalie and leave them there players. Now why is that?
    Why did both the Stanley cup finalists throw away the dark ages of Rickis systems and move on to a fast paced attack the puck everywhere system?
    What are the new assistants bringing in?
    Sure as hell isnt Ricki systems.
    Going to bring in a fast press take on the puck carrier system.

  114. rickithebear says:

    WG:
    When I look at Emelins previous 1st comp with top 20 HD
    1.75 is a realistic chance.
    Meaning potentially 2.06 EVGA fwds could WCard roll against PvP with them.

    But we are not privy to why NSH made the choice they did.

  115. leadfarmer says:

    And this is where I’ve disagreed with the stats community for years. Advanced stats are part of the puzzle. But it’s not the whole puzzle. Otherwise you are just assuming you know more than the guys that coach these players day in and day out. Now those people aren’t perfect either. But working with the same people every day gives you a knowledge you don’t get otherwise.
    But TVRs TOI has now been decreasing 3 years in a row. Sure the fancies are there, but clearly something more to the story

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    rickithebear,

    OriginalPouzar,

    I certainly have time for “Faulk isn’t good defensively”

    I’ve railing on the same subject myself.

    My point is that EDM requires a player with top 4 expereince.

    Even Emelin will be better than Gravel or other 7D options.

    EDM needs someone with top 4 experience.

    The FA option are Enstrom who might not want to come back to the NHL and Emelin, who is pretty meh.

    The only obvious trade option is Faulk as he is superfluous on CAR’sroster and they are an internal cap team with the kicker that I doubt he costs much to acquire.

    I’m all for better bets, but they *must* add someone with that experience imo.

    I’m all over Enstrom for a one-year contract – if he’ll sign it, done.

    Personally, I’d rather bring in another depth guy like Davidson than acquire Faulk and 2 years of that contract.

    There is too much cap risk with it in the future – many scenarios could play out that make it much harder than you’ve stated to trade it.

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear: Oh agree system repeatability is a priority.

    More experienced can step in.

    For choices for best goal diff options.

    All the shot desity, Off Goal success, def GA success data says
    rovers are the +ve goal diff hockey anti christ.

    I don’t disagree with that

  118. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear:
    WG:
    When I look at Emelins previous 1st comp with top 20 HD
    1.75 is a realistic chance.
    Meaning potentially 2.06 EVGA fwds could WCard roll against PvP with them.

    But we are not privy to why NSH made the choice they did.

    Yeah, he’s the anti-Faulk

    Dragged PK down quite a bit (natch given who the other options are)

    http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=NSH&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2018-04-08&tgp=82&strict=incl&p1=8471296&p2=8474056&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

    Offence drags way more than the defence (obv)

  119. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    And this is where I’ve disagreed with the stats community for years. Advanced stats are part of the puzzle.But it’s not the whole puzzle.Otherwise you are just assuming you know more than the guys that coach these players day in and day out.Now those people aren’t perfect either.But working with the same people every day gives you a knowledge you don’t get otherwise.
    But TVRs TOI has now been decreasing 3 years in a row. Sure the fancies are there, but clearly something more to the story

    I don’t know if that’s directed at me, but I haven’t said TVR’s better than what his coach thinks.

    He killed 3rd pair, but was very sheltered.

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m all over Enstrom for a one-year contract – if he’ll sign it, done.

    Personally, I’d rather bring in another depth guy like Davidson than acquire Faulk and 2 years of that contract.

    There is too much cap risk with it in the future – many scenarios could play out that make it much harder than you’ve stated to trade it.

    That’s fair

  121. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear:
    WG:
    When I look at Emelins previous 1st comp with top 20 HD
    1.75 is a realistic chance.
    Meaning potentially 2.06 EVGA fwds could WCard roll against PvP with them.

    But we are not privy to why NSH made the choice they did.

    Because he is not good enough in the 3 zones to survive a modern game and therefore saw his ice time completely vanish. He had an average of under 17 min but when you break down his end of regular season his time got dramatically cut and even got worse in playoffs
    TOI
    Game 7 Wpg 9:41
    Game 6 Wpg 0:00
    Game 5 Wpg 0:00
    Game 4 Wpg 0:00
    Game 3 Wpg 9:42
    Game 2 Wpg 12:29
    Game 1 Wpg 12:32

    Game 6 Avs 16:01
    Game 5 Avs 9:35
    Game 4 Avs 11:24
    Game 3 Avs 10:53
    Game 2 Avs 9:13
    Game 1 Avs 11:42

    Now don’t think it’s just playoffs.
    His last 10 games of regular season working backwards are
    15:57
    13:37
    11:35
    0
    14:39
    11:32
    13:06
    0
    0
    9:52

    But yeah this is a guy that would slide right into our top 4. Perfect!!!

  122. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Nope directed at the resident bear.
    But once again if Emelin is good, why did he get stapled to the bench.
    If he is good why aren’t teams chasing after him. We all know teams love veteran defenseman.
    Because these guys are no longer desired because they cannot play the modern game

  123. pts2pndr says:

    Wilde: Zack Kassian was on the ice for two goals for versus a sub 6 foot defenseman, one on Goligoski one on Barrie.

    (Barrie was on the ice for two versus Kassian)

    I would posit that there’s very little chance Kassian’s going to make contact with a quick-footed defender on the forecheck.

    Let me guess his center was coaches golden boy ( Letestu )!

  124. pts2pndr says:

    leadfarmer:
    rickithebear,

    Look no one is saying they are thrilled with the player.He is a stopgap option for 2 years until our internal options develop.Then you don’t need to negotiate with him.
    But one day you will have to realize you can not compare 3rd pairing D to guys that are top 4 defensemen. TVR is so great and Faulk sucks right.Well if that was the case why didn’t TVR steal some of Faulks minutes?Faulk plays 22 min to TVRs 17 so why didn’t they make them equal.
    But you continue comparing apples and oranges
    Until the day you come to the realization
    All Hail Mark Fistric the greatest defensemen to walk Shawshank

    The Bear doesn’t need my defense but in the example you use it could be aurgued that maybe the coach should have used TVR more given the teams results!

  125. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Those are great numbers that show PK dragged Emelin’s body around the ice with him. Only way I want Emelin in my top 4 is if PK comes with him.

  126. leadfarmer says:

    pts2pndr: The Bear doesn’t need my defense but in the example you use it could be aurgued that maybe the coach should have used TVR more given the teams results!

    Yet he didn’t. In fact he continued to shelter the crap out of TVR.
    Some bottom of the roster players just underperform their advanced stats. It just happens. That’s why a lot of us use the terminology of could be tried in a 2nd pair situation but don’t say a 3rd pairing D is a 2nd pairing because of advanced stats. Because a lot of them on paper look like they could, but they just can’t.
    That’s why I get on Rickis case when he starts bringing 16 min a night defensemen into arguments of top 4 d.

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Nope directed at the resident bear.
    But once again if Emelin is good, why did he get stapled to the bench.
    If he is good why aren’t teams chasing after him.We all know teams love veteran defenseman.
    Because these guys are no longer desired because they cannot play the modern game

    Emelin isn’t desireable.

    Right now EDM is in the position of taking the best of a bad lot.

    He (or Enstrom) are injury protection or Benning protection.

    Faulk is a little bit different Kettle of fish

  128. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Those are great numbers that show PK dragged Emelin’s body around the ice with him.Only way I want Emelin in my top 4 is if PK comes with him.

    The defensive numbers are better.

    He’s very Russell-like in that offence dies, but the defence is ok.

    I wish EDM wasn’t in this position, but here we are.

  129. JimmyV1965 says:

    Panic seems to be setting in with the Sekera injury. His absence will sting for sure, but the season is far from over and I doubt the GM gets fired if he doesn’t replace him. Sekera was gone most of last year and when he returned he didn’t help the team at all.

    If the team gets league avg goaltending and above avg special teams, we will be in the hunt for a playoff spot, even without a material replacement for Sekera.

    Having said that, I just don’t understand why the GM hasn’t added any cover at 2 RHD. We don’t need Karlsson, although I would love that, just someone who can play the position and not get caved.

  130. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    But random defenseman not named PK has slightly better shots against /60 as Emelin and much higher shots for. So defensively he was on par and offensively he caved his team. And now he’s older. Looks like a slightly better Gryba, just slightly. Question is does he even get a contract?

    Sounds like for the right price that Petry fellow could be had

  131. JimmyV1965 says:

    pts2pndr: Deployment and getting stuck on the fourth line while Drake gets the push could have something to do with that. People live up and or down to expectations! Does what is required in year one and lives up to his word in year one and then shat on in year two! Where is there any incentive?

    Not only does the Drake suck, now he’s making other players worse, even if he barely plays with them. If Kassian needs to be slotted up the lineup to give his best effort, then I say let’s trade him. I don’t think that’s the case though. He’s can be a useful player, but I don’t see him ever being in the top 6.

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    rickithebear,

    OriginalPouzar,

    I certainly have time for “Faulk isn’t good defensively”

    I’ve railing on the same subject myself.

    My point is that EDM requires a player with top 4 expereince.

    Even Emelin will be better than Gravel or other 7D options.

    EDM needs someone with top 4 experience.

    The FA option are Enstrom who might not want to come back to the NHL and Emelin, who is pretty meh.

    The only obvious trade option is Faulk as he is superfluous on CAR’sroster and they are an internal cap team with the kicker that I doubt he costs much to acquire.

    I’m all for better bets, but they *must* add someone with that experience imo.

    I’m all over Enstrom for a one-year contract – if he’ll sign it, done.

    Personally, I’d rather bring in another depth guy like Davidson than acquire Faulk and 2 years of that contract.

    There is too much cap risk with it in the future – many scenarios could play out that make it much harder than you’ve stated to trade it.

    Woodguy v2.0: Which cap space was Pete trying to trade that he couldn’t?

    Gryba?

    Perhaps.

    Pretty sure he was trying to trade Lucic.

    For all I/we know, he was trying to move Russell or Sekera.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I would rather Enstrom for just cash than Faulk for assests.

    I think I’d rather Emelin for just cash than Faulk for assests, but that’s closer.

    There’s an argument that a healthy Sekera is still ahead of Nurse.

    I haven’t seen Emelin enough (or dug in to him enough) to formulate an opinion. I agree with your other two statements.

    Personally, I just have zero interest in that Faulk contract given the risk and what I saw of him last year.

    Absolutely, a healthy Sekera would be ahead of Nurse, I wouldn’t even argue that, however, even two weeks ago, we were somewhat blind to how effective he was going to be.

  134. Doug McLachlan says:

    WG, sure they would match but would an Offer Sheet of Schmaltz in StL make sense as an option? StL is at the cap and you could come in under the compensation level of $1.3M.

  135. Professor Q says:

    Anyone think that a 4th-3rd Energy Line of Upshall – Brodziak- Kassian might actually be highly intriguing and enticing? Maybe even for the playoffs?

    With a secondary Energy Line of Lucic – Strome – Khaira to back them up?

  136. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I’d be cool with Enstrom for a year and think that’s the best case scenario, although you are not getting him for the whole year. Can’t afford Faulk in assets or cap space.
    Emelin. Like Woodguy showed was like tying a boat anchor to your offense. Dropped shots for by 25% over their non Subban D while not moving the needle defensively. And that’s in his good year. Yikes

  137. VOR says:

    pitlickdinner,

    I have listened to him speak about assigning equity to players and while I didn’t buy his argument at the time it stuck with me. In the years since Michael Schuckers has made many of the same arguments. I have read Roman’s PhD thesis (it is original and fascinating). I’ve watched him shoot up the ranks of Russian Hockey and build the KHL model and the SKA machine.

    Then there is the twice he has been Club Manager of the Year in the KHL. Plus, the fact hockey people I respect (Mark Hunter, Brian MacDonald, etc) are in awe of him. And then there are the endorsements from non hockey sports people like Jessica Gelman and Luke Bornn.

    That is a summary of a much longer explanation but it gives you the gist.

  138. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar: They don’t have $5.5M of cap room – they have some cushion to go over the cap temporarily but it goes away the second Sekera is deemed fit to play and activated – that very well could be this year and, even if its not this year, it will be next year.

    That $5.5M cap hit is coming back (unless he spends the next 3 years on LTIR which I doubt).

    – I’m assuming he is out for the season

    – I agree with you pointing out the eventual challenge they will have should sek return next year

    – I’m failrly certain however that they will spend every last cent of the $5.5mm of the relief available to them this year if they are able to find the right players and kick the can down the road on the repercussions to the cap next year

    – they are aware of the consequence. I disagree that the longer term considerations are paramount

    – also the LTIR cap relief does not talk about the penalties for being over.

    – it’s not an issue imo. They will figure it out next with no consequence to the roster next year.

  139. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I’m assuming he is out for the season

    – I agree with you pointing out the eventual challenge they will have should sek return next year

    – I’m failrly certain however that they will spend every last cent of the $5.5mm of the relief available to them this year if they are able to find the right players and kick the can down the road on the repercussions to the cap next year

    – they are aware of the consequence. I disagree that the longer term considerations are paramount

    – also the LTIR cap relief does not talk about the penalties for being over.

    – it’s not an issue imo.They will figure it out next with no consequence to the roster next year.

    I agree with all of this.

  140. leadfarmer says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    He won’t be out for the season. The skate is fairly protective of the Achilles’ tendon, so this is not like basketball where the tendon gets maximal stress the entire time. That’s why players don’t injure it playing hockey (other than a skate cut). They injure it training to play hockey

  141. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’m more concerned at RD than LD. There is no cover at RD. Russell can stand over there sure, but he has trouble. Bear isn’t ready. Bouchard is skilled but a huge risk.

    Lowe, Davidson, Lagesson, Stanton, there are reasonable options on LD with an NHL partner, which Faulk and Benning are. Crickets on the right IMO.

    Faulk may have issues, but at the right price balances the D better and I agree he can be moved. If his head is together he might recover a more stable game. Trades can reset players from bad teams if they are not having off ice issues. As for off ice, no idea with Faulk.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    We will have to disagree.

    I am not willing to effect transactions that will have negative implications on our cap for next year in order to provide injury cover for a player this year.

    I’ve been fairly consistent that I am in favor or taking a slow approach to acquisitions, proceed with caution and, if smart moves are made over the next few years and we really start to reap the rewards of drafting and development, this team will be able to consistently contend.

    Sekera could very well come back this year and almost certainly will be back for next year. Even if somehow he does got on LTIR for next year we still need to be cap compliant on day 1 which would include his $5.5M.

    This is not free money.

    We are still very much in cap hell and I have zero desire to further add to it.

    An Enstrom or Emelin for a year is preferred. If not, a Davidson.

    I’m not in favor of taking on any cap with term that we wouldn’t have taken off a week ago.

  143. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    We will have to disagree.

    I am not willing to effect transactions that will have negative implications on our cap for next year in order to provide injury cover for a player this year.

    I’ve been fairly consistent that I am in favor or taking a slow approach to acquisitions, proceed with caution and, if smart moves are made over the next few years and we really start to reap the rewards of drafting and development, this team will be able to consistently contend.

    Sekera could very well come back this year and almost certainly will be back for next year. Even if somehow he does got on LTIR for next year we still need to be cap compliant on day 1 which would include his $5.5M.

    This is not free money.

    We are still very much in cap hell and I have zero desire to further add to it.

    An Enstrom or Emelin for a year is preferred.If not, a Davidson.

    I’m not in favor of taking on any cap with term that we wouldn’t have taken off a week ago.

    The bigger question is “will the Oilers do it?” and I believe the answer is yes.

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: The bigger question is “will the Oilers do it?” and I believe the answer is yes.

    You could be right but, at the same time, we were asking this question earlier in the off-season about management making panic moves to try and immediately improve while giving up future and, alas, they showed restraint.

  145. Georgexs says:

    I’ve been used to thinking that a forward’s draft position provides meaningful information; that you could fit some type of non-linear performance curve that decayed rapidly from the first few spots and then gradually the rest of the way; that you could have some confidence that the 67th pick would not only have a higher likelihood of reaching the NHL than the 112th pick, but that he would also have a higher expected performance once he got there.

    I see things much differently now that I’ve looked at the data. Forward picks can be crudely (but not unreasonably) categorized into 4 groups based on expected performance (if they make the NHL):

    1 – Picks 1 through 10. Top offensive talents. (You could break this group up into top 5 and bottom 5. The data supports it. The actual position a forward is picked is definitely informative in this category.)

    2 – Picks 11 through 30. Second tier offensive talents. It doesn’t really matter where you’re picked in this group. Picks 11-20 do as well as picks 21-30. Even though they’re not in the top 10, these players still end up being some team’s first and most important draft choice in the most likely case where a first round pick hasn’t been traded.

    3 – 2nd round picks. Again, the position you’re picked in the 2nd round doesn’t matter for setting expectations for your offense if you manage to make the NHL. All that matters is that you’re picked in the 2nd round; you’re some team’s second pick and that team has more invested in you than their later picks. This seems to translate into a higher likelihood of finding offensive winners in this category than in the last category.

    4 – Everyone else, rounds 3-7. I’m oversimplifying here. The frequency with which you find top 6 offense (which I’m setting at 0.55 points per game) is higher for 3rd round picks than later round picks. But, as I showed in my first post, the typical outcomes for forwards picked in the 3rd round are close enough to those picked later that the simplification seems OK.

    So, outside of the top 10, picks in each of the categories appear close enough in offense as to be equivalent. A forward’s actual draft position is less important for estimating his expected performance once he reaches the NHL than the category he was selected in.

  146. v4ance says:

    Via Twitter:

    Jeff Veillette @JeffVeillette

    No one even half way smart in the analytics world actually believes that numbers tell you everything, though. The people who parade “stats aren’t everything” are usually the ones who are against them but want to sound moderate.

  147. rickithebear says:

    Brodziak – Upshall
    FO ZS
    19.4% OZ
    31.0% NZ
    49.6% DZ
    -2 over 455:36
    -.263 evgd60
    Damn!

  148. Glovjuice says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You’d have to add something.I suggest the ubiquitous 2nd.

    obligatory

  149. rickithebear says:

    v4ance:
    Via Twitter:

    Jeff Veillette @JeffVeillette

    No one even half way smart in the analytics world actually believes that numbers tell you everything, though. The people who parade “stats aren’t everything” are usually the ones who are against them but want to sound moderate.

    I have been selling this message since I started to take the anslytics message public through discussion in public 06-07.

    Mechanics ( video)
    Math (system)

  150. Gerta Rauss says:

    JimmyV1965: Having said that, I just don’t understand why the GM hasn’t added any cover at 2 RHD

    I think Bouchard dropping to 10 had a lot to do with that

    I understand Bouchard doesn’t fill 2RD but after the draft Chia had 6 NHL D on the roster (incl Nurse) and Bouchard on the back burner and very little cap space to do anything about it so he’s just let it ride this summer (so far)

  151. Gerta Rauss says:

    I strongly prefer Enstrom on a short term deal-strongly- but Faulk’s buyout next summer is palatable

    2019-20 $833,333k
    2020-21 $2M

    just sayin’

    *edit-I have very little appetite for Faulk unless Carolina is giving him away ie: something built around Kassian or Lucic. I wouldn’t give up anything of substance and simply sign Davidson if push came to shove

  152. VOR says:

    v4ance:
    Via Twitter:

    Jeff Veillette @JeffVeillette

    No one even half way smart in the analytics world actually believes that numbers tell you everything, though. The people who parade “stats aren’t everything” are usually the ones who are against them but want to sound moderate.

    So Jeff is saying everyone in the analytics world agrees that numbers don’t tell you everything but if you state that out loud you magically become a stat hater who wants to appear to be a moderate.

    Oh and anybody who thinks everything can ultimately be reduced to numbers isn’t even half smart.

    Apparently this passes as wisdom in the Twitterverse.

  153. VOR says:

    VOR,

    Let me respond in kind.

    Anyone who is even half smart in the analytics world acknowledges numbers don’t tell you everything. But we go on on, whistling in the graveyard, ignoring the obvious question. Can numbers tell us anything about hockey?

  154. v4ance says:

    Posted just today via Twitter:

    Bill Comeau @billius27

    Thread. Some thoughts on WAR stats. The idea of evaluating players on a single stat is not a new one. If I open up http://NHL.com ‘s stat page, the point rankings are right there. Whoever he was, the first hockey stats dude came up with Total Points by adding three

    player behaviours: goals, 1st assists and 2nd assists. When he did that, he was constructing a WAR-like stat: one metric to help rank and evaluate players.
    The game has run with it ever since and there it is driving everyone’s focus. (Even though those 2nd assists have been

    shown to be largely random and useless in evaluating forwards.)
    But it was easy to rank players and show charts.
    Then along game +/- and everyone started using that as the metric because “gud pros play a two way game”. They had one thing right – the game is played

    in two directions and defense matters. But +/- was a useless stat because it was more tied to a team, a goalie, and random shooting % on the ice. Good players on bad teams with lots of ice time got wrongly labeled.
    And the beat went on, fans and teams used the

    *BEST AVAILABLE STAT*™ to start the conversation on which player ranked higher. Then they looked at +/- and said it was a bad stat. It’s part of what makes hockey fun, these debates and comparing players and the beat went on.
    Now all those shot attempt stats came along and

    it got labeled after Jim Corsi. But besides all these stats, there was still a need for a single “omnibus” stat, like every sport. Points was still there but was it really a fair comparison if a player was getting fewer minutes or on a shutdown line? The beat goes on. Over the

    past few years more and more fans sought a stat that would better weigh all parts of a player’s game. And just like baseball, statisticians and others started weighing offense and defense shot share and discovering new impacts like faceoffs and penalties and how player’s did

    with or without their teammates. The most inspiring part of all of this for me is watching fans solve the problem, not the league. The NHL kept running out the same old Total Points and writers and voters kept focusing on a few gross numbers to hand out awards to “stars”.

    The NHL makes billions but has run a stats website like it was broke for almost it’s entire history. Anyway, these volunteer fans figured some things out and it’s solely because of their work that we have anything. Like explorers, they went off in different directions, some like

    @ShutdownLine started tracking their own stats. Others started building statistical models, others started creating viz to share insights. Some went broad with multi-stats (I know, that’s SKATR). Some looked at zone exits and entries… the list goes on. It’s so vibrant, every

    day I see no developments, new folks picking up the baton. All with minimal support from the NHL. And not lost in these explosions of fan-funded efforts, some continued to look at the thorny, difficult single metric issue. It’s been an evolution and frankly, it’s still early days

    because players can be difficult to separate when the bulk of the best data available is based on shots in each shift.
    But even though it’s early days, there is a brutally true fact: all of these single player metrics are vastly superior to what the league suggests by proxy –

    Total Points.

    BECAUSE THEY ACTUALLY ATTEMPT TO OBJECTIVELY AND ACCURATELY WEIGH PLAYER CONTRIBUTIONS TO A TEAM PROPERLY BASED ON THE PUBLIC FACTS AVAILABLE.

    That’s why I think it’s a disservice to the hockey community and the analytical community to argue that until

    a single player metric is pristine and complete, it’s not highly useful. After all, the NHL has ranked by points for a century. Listen to how a WAR modeller explains the weights they use and the factors they included and how they attempted to weasel out one player’s impact. Ask

    questions.

    But at the end of the day, their work will be judged by peers and used by fans and one thing is certain, this field will only build on each person’s work.
    It will not go into idle while some pick at the data gaps.

    Personally, I think hockey analytics is a big tent

    and their is plenty of room for statisticians, machine learning peeps, database creators, miners and fans creating insights from a multitude of stats provided to them.
    We just need to continue improving solutions and not overselling any one stat along the way. That’s why

    I am 100% behind the idea of “hockey intelligence diversity”. That’s why I report 21 stats in SKATR and that’s why I encourage everyone to look at WAR stats, dig into other classic and new stats and reach their own conclusions. We are not wedded to points per game. It’s

    a vibrant information democracy at its best. Ask questions, give feedback. But let’s support and nurture those trying to find new methods and insights.
    That’s the framework I would hope we see when it comes to debating the “value” of a “WAR” metric.

    Selected articles on WAR and GAR-like metrics:

    Some history:
    http://blog.war-on-ice.com/the-road-to-war-series-index/
    https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/02/08/understanding-war-and-its-practical-applications-to-player-evaluation-part-1/

    Dom
    https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/07/13/measuring-single-game-productivity-an-introduction-to-game-score/
    Tulloch
    https://mapleleafsnation.com/2017/10/02/introducing-a-new-war-model-part-1/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    McCallum
    https://hockeyandstuff.weebly.com/chaces-blog/goals-above-replacement

    Manny
    http://corsica.hockey/misc/war_notebook.html

    Evolving Wild
    https://hockeygraphsdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/gar_spm_ritsac_18.pdf

    Cheers. /end

    TL/DR; WAR is good and getting better

  155. Wilde says:

    Personally I just need a hockey executive to softy say to me in a million different permutations that you have to combine analytics with the eye test in second-per-syllable cadence on repeat or else I can’t go to sleep

  156. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear:
    Brodziak – Upshall
    FO ZS
    19.4% OZ
    31.0% NZ
    49.6% DZ
    -2 over 455:36
    -.263 evgd60
    Damn!

    I assume their numbers look better when you delete Chris Thorburn from their line….

  157. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss: I think Bouchard dropping to 10 had a lot to do with that

    I understand Bouchard doesn’t fill 2RD but after the draft Chia had 6 NHL D on the roster (incl Nurse) and Bouchard on the back burner and very little cap space to do anything about it so he’s just let it ride this summer (so far)

    Chiarellli stated as such – essentially said that Bouchard dropping did take the urgency out of trying to acquire a d-man.

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    I strongly prefer Enstrom on a short term deal-strongly- but Faulk’s buyout next summer is palatable

    2019-20$833,333k
    2020-21$2M

    just sayin’

    *edit-I have very little appetite for Faulk unless Carolina is giving him away ie: something built around Kassian or Lucic. I wouldn’t give up anything of substance and simply sign Davidson if push came to shove

    I’m with you on this and the desire to acquire Faulk (and what I’d give up for him).

    I just want to add that, while, yes, the buyout terms aren’t too bad, I’d be remiss to acquire any player where I’m looking at the buyout terms after one year.

  159. Professor Q says:

    VOR:
    VOR,

    Let me respond in kind.

    Anyone who is even half smart in the analytics world acknowledges numbers don’t tell you everything. But we go on on, whistling in the graveyard, ignoring the obvious question. Can numbers tell us anything about hockey?

    That depends on what you want to ask.

    Numbers are our way of representing and measuring and relating the real world. Not just statistics on a page but physics equations applied to on-ice maneuvers, and studies of the brain actions and decisions etc.

    It can go deeper…

  160. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    My preference based on nothing at all really is Davidson and Enstrom, both on one year deals.

    I like the Upshall PTO. Would like a couple other invites too camp.

    I’d like the Oilers to step into the power granted them by McDavid. Play like they own the place instead of being a newcomer.

    I more and more feel that McLellan is not the right person for the HC job. Don’t know who would be but someone with a better vision and imagination for how to use players properly. Maybe the new Acs help in this – here’s hoping.

    A post entirely lacking in analytics and based on nothing but a desire to see the Oilers win again!

  161. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Glovjuice: obligatory

    Since 2nds are in almost every proposed trade they are also ubiquitous

  162. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    WG, sure they would match but would an Offer Sheet of Schmaltz in StL make sense as an option?StL is at the cap and you could come in under the compensation level of $1.3M.

    Yeah, that doesn’t get anything done.

    They like Schmaltz lots and would match

  163. RedArmy says:

    Professor Q:
    Anyone think that a 4th-3rd Energy Line of Upshall – Brodziak- Kassian might actually be highly intriguing and enticing? Maybe even for the playoffs?

    With a secondary Energy Line of Lucic – Strome – Khaira to back them up?

    Switch Kassian to Hartnell and I’d be happy

  164. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I’m assuming he is out for the season

    – I agree with you pointing out the eventual challenge they will have should sek return next year

    – I’m failrly certain however that they will spend every last cent of the $5.5mm of the relief available to them this year if they are able to find the right players and kick the can down the road on the repercussions to the cap next year

    – they are aware of the consequence. I disagree that the longer term considerations are paramount

    – also the LTIR cap relief does not talk about the penalties for being over.

    – it’s not an issue imo.They will figure it out next with no consequence to the roster next year.

    I agree with all this too.

    Someone buy a lottery ticket, stars and moons are aligning.

  165. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    There is lots of good research and data on your current area of interest.

    I think you’d like this: http://donttellmeaboutheart.blogspot.com/2014/11/nhl-draft-pick-value-chart.html

    There are others as well:

    https://originalsixanalytics.com/tag/draft-pick-value/

    https://mapleleafsnation.com/2011/03/16/on-relative-worth-of-draft-picks/

    Lots and lots more, but didn’t want this to get caught in the spam filter.

  166. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear:
    Brodziak – Upshall
    FO ZS
    19.4% OZ
    31.0% NZ
    49.6% DZ
    -2 over 455:36
    -.263 evgd60
    Damn!

    I like this plan. I like my 4th liners being penalty killers and hard minutes guys. I would much rather Upshall and Brodziak blocking pp bombs from the point than Mcdavid

  167. Jaxon says:

    I’d be okay with Edmonton waiting for the preseason waivers and offering something to Toronto for Justin Holl. He may have been one of the best right hand D in the AHL last season he’s 26, he’s big (6’3″, 205lbs), he’s fast, he’s a defensibly responsible veteran pro, and last year he added an offensive element to his game. He had one of the best 5v5 points/60 (1.58), one of the best 5v5 primary points/60 (.73), one of the best 5v5 GF (59.77%), And he was logging top pair 5v5 minutes against the toughest competition (16.51 minutes). He’s also played some forward in the past so he’s quite versatile. I think he’d be a great addition as 3RD who could keep Russell on the left side. He’s the right hand D version of Josh Leivo, if you will.

  168. VOR says:

    Professor Q: That depends on what you want to ask.

    Numbers are our way of representing and measuring and relating the real world. Not just statistics on a page but physics equations applied to on-ice maneuvers, and studies of the brain actions and decisions etc.

    It can go deeper…

    I love numbers, math, and physics. I will be spending my day immersed in numbers as I try to calculate the optimum size for a linear chain of solar farms. Then work out from incident sunlight data and weather trends the likely 20, 30, and 40 year power production of those farms. And based on NPV of money and inflation and interest rate changes the payoff time on investment.

    The thing is, I am pretty confidant I am offering real value to my clients.

    Later this week I am field testing my video capture and analysis software on real skaters in a real hockey game. I am quite confident it will give us reliable data on 26 dimensions of skating from real time play. This will move us back ahead of my friends from Laval who are the current leaders in this field. At some point I am sure we will sell the completed technology to someone like SportsLogiq.

    I am not convinced it will offer any additional value to coaches or GMs. Data isn’t information. Information isn’t knowledge isn’t wisdom. Wisdom isn’t judgement. Data without higher levels of processing and application is just noise.

    Show me hockey analytics in use today making the coach or GM’s life easier.

  169. Pechetr says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I would be much more worried about Klefbom’s shoulders than Larsson’s back.

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