Takin’ Care of Business

Peter Chiarelli got back into the office before a few general managers and appears to be doing a fairly steady business two-thirds of the way through summer. After the Andrej Sekera news, he’s added Scottie Upshall on a PTO and (yesterday) signed intriguing defenseman Jakub Jerabek. He is from Plzen, Czech Republic a mere 30 hours from Anton Slepyshev’s hometown (Penza, Russia) so they probably know each other. Plzen is just five hours from Cologne, Leon Draisaitl’s hometown, so Jerabek and Draisaitl may have been on the same school bus as kids.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

JAKUB JERABEK

In a 31-team league, it’s impossible to know all the players the way Oilers fans know someone like (say) Brandon Davidson. A quick trip around the Al Gore last night fetched some interesting information on the newest Oiler.

  • Jonathan Willis:  For my money the best fit is probably (Jakub) Jerabek, a 27-year-old whose mobility and skill with the puck are the nearest match out there for what a healthy Sekera could have done. (The Athletic)
  • Marc Dumont: Jerabek played relatively well during his limited ice time with the Canadiens, especially when it came to controlling the play during his shifts. (The Athletic)
  • Marc Dumont: Jerabek (55.8 per cent) once again only trails Weber and Mete in this very important category (expected goals). Furthermore Jerabek faces a stiffer quality of competition and a lower quality of teammates than almost all the other defenceman on the team. (Montreal Gazette)

The NHL numbers (AHL too, for that matter) simply don’t give us enough to know anything for sure. He was in the Czech league since childhood (entered the league at 17, won the league’s best defenseman award at 24) and made his way to the KHL in 2016-17 (age 25).

  • 16-17 KHL 59gp, 5-29-34 21:47TOI, NHLE 38

Jerabek signed with Montreal during the 2017 offseason, spent some time in Laval (AHL), moved up to the Habs, then was dealt to Washington. Jerabek got into a couple of playoff games before being replaced by Christian Djoos.

What can we say about this signing? Looks like a solid bet from here, my guess is Jerabek is one of the seven best defensemen on the roster this morning. If nothing changes, he should be in Cologne in October.

NEW 50-MAN LIST

  • Praising Peter Chiarelli is met with the guns of Brixton in most parts but he has added some nice pieces on a shy budget all summer.
  • Tobias Rieder, Kyle Brodziak, Scottie Upshall and now Jakub Jerabek represent small and astute bets. Mikko Koskinen looks lavish in comparison, perhaps we’ll feel differently about that contract this time next year.
  • Jerabek’s presence squeezes everyone south of Klefbom-Larsson, Nurse-Benning and Russell. I think he might be the No. 6 defenseman with Andrej Sekera injured and Evan Bouchard not yet 20.
  • The Upshall signing makes everything more interesting.

TYLER BENSON’S PROGRESS

In writing my item for The Athletic prospect series I went back and looked at Benson’s progress since draft day. I didn’t have room in the article to post these two tables, thought I’d share them here (and please read the article, Benson is a fascinating prospect). Here are the forwards drafted between 31 and 39 in 2016, their 2016-17 scoring numbers and NHL equivalencies. This first table was posted in late summer 2017, and shows Alex DeBrincat is miles ahead of everyone else, with Adam Mascherin and Jordan Kyrou running second and third. Benson ranked No. 5 of seven players in NHLE:

DeBrincat continued to spike in year two, making the NHL and scoring 20+ goals for the Chicago Blackhawks. How did everyone else do in draft +2?

DeBrincat scored 52 points as an NHL rookie, so he’s out of orbit compared to the rest of the group. In the words of Hawk Harrelson, he gone! Jordan Kyrou took a step forward while Adam Mascherin ran in place. Yegor Korshkov and Benson also plateaued, while centers Asplund and Laberge look shy offensively in both seasons. I address Benson’s future in the article at The Athletic, interested to know if you agree with my findings.

DRAFT CHAT

Some great debate in yesterday’s thread about the draft. Thought I’d chime in here because by the time I get back to it we’ll be talking about arthritis or Natalie Wood. In my time looking at the draft (basically since 1973), there are things that we can say are universally true:

  • Impact or generational talents are gone by No. 3 overall.
  • Defensemen can fool you.
  • Goalies are impossible difficult to project but outstanding talents do show themselves early. It’s just that not all of the outstanding ones turn out and European leagues have such a wide range of quality you can miss someone easily.
  • When assessing a single draft, always feature offense prominently. Cheat for offense and then cheat again for offense, while also knowing that defensemen who get lots of power-play time may not receive any once they reach the NHL.
  • There is a randomness about draft success after about No. 15 overall that I’ve come to believe is luck. Some teams put themselves into position for good luck by drafting offense, but there’s a great deal of luck involved.
  • Teams are punishing players they perceive as being small and average in foot speed, possibly to their detriment. Mathew Barzal’s speed caused some teams to fade him and he punished them with extreme prejudice. I think Alex DeBrincat had that issue, too.
  • Someday a team is going to draft 7 DeBrincat/Barzal/Kailer Yamamoto’s, be called fools, and win a Stanley Cup five years later on the back of those talented youngsters.
  • If your team is drafting a CHL forward in the top 60 whose offense is well below a point-per-game, disregard the draft and hope the general manager can trade his way to success.
  • Drafting players from secondary leagues (BCHL, AJHL) is reasonable by the middle of the second round, but the CHL high-end kids should be taken before a team ranges outside the big talent pools.
  • The USHL has a lot of mystery about it, teams who don’t scout heavily/have contacts/bird dogs are at a huge disadvantage.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy, fun morning beginning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Marc Dumont, TSN690 Montreal and The Athletic. Edmonton’s new defensemen, how good is he, and is it Jacob or Yacob?
  • Michael Rothstein, ESPN reporter on the Detroit Lions. Is this the season the Lions win 12 games?
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. CFL getting interesting, NHL waking up from summer in the sun.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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198 Responses to "Takin’ Care of Business"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m not sure exactly what to think about the Jarabek signing.

    Some of the pieces out there, such as those linked above, are encouraging – similar to Auvitu – will the coach actually use this player and play to his strengths?

    I’m fine with him competing for the 6/7 spot at camp and we’ll see how it goes.

    It doesn’t provide any cover for a top 4 injury but, when that injury occurs, it leads to the depth to have cover on the 3rd pair with an NHL (as opposed to AHL) d-man when the incumbent 3rd pairing guy moves up the lineup (Kris Russell presumably).

  2. jm363561 says:

    Great write up LT. To save anyone else Googling it – “A “bird dog”is a type of gun dog or hunting dog used to hunt or retrieve birds or other small game animals.[1] by tracking their scent in the air.” There are probably several jokes that could be constructed about selecting players by their scent, but, just maybe, “scent” is the new NHLE… or maybe not.

  3. godot10 says:

    Nurse is still unsigned. Jerebek is currently in the top 5 based on signed defensemen.

    Of the teams with unsigned D looking for their 2nd contract, the team in the most critical situation is the Oilers, with the European start, the Sekera injury, and the opening schedule from hell.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am hopeful that Benson gets the year in Bakersfield. There is a chance he plays some NHL games this year, absolutely, but hopefully those would be earned on merit as opposed to lack of options because half of Bakersfield are filling in for injuries.

  5. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    Nurse is still unsigned.Jerebek is currently in the top 5 based on signed defensemen.

    Of the teams with unsigned D looking for their 2nd contract, the team in the most critical situation is the Oilers, with the European start, the Sekera injury, and the opening schedule from hell.

    Nurse has no outs, sad to say.

  6. DBO says:

    sneaky good pick up. He has upside, excelled in every league he played in (NHLe looks great). Defenseman of the year in the KHL is no small thing. And from all indications he battles defensively (so not Auvitu) and has a great first pass out of the zone. Everything we hope for.

    I expect we see this to start the year:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Russell
    Jerabek-Benning

    This pick up is a wait and see pick up, but better then last years hope the kids improve. This is a solid dman who is over 25 and has more experience and hopefully can handle the minutes and possibly the PP (everything we hoped for from a 3rd pairing Sekera at a fraction of the cost)

  7. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    Wonder how many offersheets he has on the table?

  8. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    DBO:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Russell
    Jerabek-Benning

    This pick up is a wait and see pick up, but better then last years hope the kids improve. This is a solid dman who is over 25 and has more experience and hopefully can handle the minutes and possibly the PP (everything we hoped for from a 3rd pairing Sekera at a fraction of the cost)

    – that was my take as well. Benning maybe be “better than a 3RHD”, and Russel isn’t ideal 2RHD

    – I’m sure they want to do more, but it would hurt IMO… chia’s in a tough spot for sure

    – Just going back to the draft stuff (and before VOR drops his bombs which I’m looking forward to!): Some seem surprised that the top picks in the draft do well, and then there is a drop-off.

    – The reason the guy gets drafted very high is because all his life, he’s been the best player in his league, and gets put on the best teams, and plays with the best players, and he gets better, because he’s the best and has therefore the best opportunities

    – Now after some number, there are only in any year a finite number of players who are the best in their league, and progress this way.

    – By the time you get to the 2nd round and beyond: you are drafting players who excel but has deficiencies.

    – For the most part, the top-players self-identify and are self-selected. There is no surprise that after those elite ones are drafted, it becomes more difficult to predict.

    – Anyone whose played a high level of hockey understands this: good players are just better than the others: sure factor in age, work ethic, circumstances etc, but it makes sense .

  9. OilSafety says:

    DBO,

    I believe the defenseman of the year award was from the Czech league, but still a noteworthy accomplishment.

    Mature, has played a mans game, already exposed to the North American game, worth a bet.

  10. tileguy says:

    All those who remember Natalie Wood, raise your hand. ✋️

  11. tileguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Lowetide,

    Wonder how many offersheets he has on the table?

    Exactly, what are his warts that 2 teams would just cast him aside.

  12. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OilSafety,

    – The key is finding a 2nd pairing that was as effective as Sek-Russel from two years ago.

    – I don’t know what that slot is, but they have to be coached up and played up.

    – I don’t think Nurse is ready to be the better player on a 2nd pairing, nor is Benning

    – Third pairing should be fine, and healthy first pairing fine

    – Still a lot of ifs though…

  13. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Something I haven’t heard discussed around here is the potential ability of Gravel to play his offside.

    On Gregor’s show last week, Strudwick interviewed a beat reporter for the Kings. He had some faint praise for Gravel, saying he’s rangy with long arms and has a good stick, can fit in on the PK and is even suited for spot duty on the second PP unit, and (crucially) that he’s comfortable playing the right side.

    That could free up Benning to play 2RD with Nurse and keep Russell on the left of the third pairing.

  14. Primetime says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Something I haven’t heard discussed around here is the potential ability of Gravel to play his offside.

    On Gregor’s show last week, Strudwick interviewed a beat reporter for the Kings.He had some faint praise for Gravel, saying he’s rangy with long arms and has a good stick, can fit in on the PK and is even suited for spot duty on the second PP unit, and (crucially) that he’s comfortable playing the right side.

    That could free up Benning to play 2RD with Nurse and keep Russell on the left of the third pairing.

    I see it playing out this way as well. If Jerabek is in, then KR plays 3RHD. If Gravel is in, then KR plays 3LHD. Not sure all that switching is going to work out well for KR or the team. The battle between Gravel and Jerabek may have more to do with which side KR struggles with more, rather than their own abilities…

  15. dustrock says:

    Oh oh guns of Brixton

    The money feels good
    And your life you like it well
    But surely your time will come
    as in heaven, as in hell

    One of my favourite Clash songs to be sure

  16. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: Nurse has no outs, sad to say.

    Trouba didn’t sign to December in a similar situation. The Oilers season could be over by Halloween or Remembrance Day if he is not on the roster.

  17. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Primetime: I see it playing out this way as well.If Jerabek is in, then KR plays 3RHD.If Gravel is in, then KR plays 3LHD.Not sure all that switching is going to work out well for KR or the team.The battle between Gravel and Jerabek may have more to do with which side KR struggles with more, rather than their own abilities…

    – All of Gravel, Jerabek, Russel, Benning I think we can reasonably say are able to play as the 5th/6th D in the NHL. None of them have a history of “helping” on a 2nd pairing.

    – Can one of them step-up in some combo to be top-4 is the question, and the opportunity.

  18. John Chambers says:

    godot10: Trouba didn’t sign to December in a similar situation.The Oilers season could be over by Halloween or Remembrance Day if he is not on the roster.

    A major difference being that Trouba didn’t (and still doesn’t) want to play in Winnipeg, while Nurse’s issue is that he wants the $5.2 x 7 Deal.

  19. dustrock says:

    godot10: Trouba didn’t sign to December in a similar situation.The Oilers season could be over by Halloween or Remembrance Day if he is not on the roster.

    Especially considering the October schedule

    Oct 6 – NJ in Cologne
    Oct 11 – @Boston
    Oct 13 – @NYR
    Oct 16 – @Wpg

    Oct 18 -Boston
    Oct 20 – Nashvile
    Oct 23 – Pittsburgh
    Oct 25 – Washington

    Oct 27 – @Nashville
    Oct 28 – @Chicago

    Oct 30 – Minnesota

  20. stephen sheps says:

    “He is from Plzen, Czech Republic”

    How have we gotten more than 20 comments in before someone mentioned he’s from the birthplace of Pilsner beer?

    Pilsner Urquell is one of my all-time favourites, and if you’re ever in that part of the world, find a bar that serves the unfiltered, unpasteurized cask conditioned version and you’re in for something special.

    Hopefully we can say the same about this mostly unknown player. Maybe he’ll surprise us all? At the very least, it’s a fairly low-risk bet.

  21. Bag of Pucks says:

    RE: The Guns of Brixton comment about Chiarelli,

    I think this is a fair observation. Some posters seem incapable of praising Chiarelli when he demonstrates acumen or does good work. That to me reveals bias, which in this case is the inability to separate the good work from the bad work. I suspect this is a result of certain posters being so disappointed with certain moves (Hall, Reinhart, Lucic) that they loathe the thought of giving credit for other transactions.

    This community prides itself on doing its utmost to mitigate bias, so good on you LT for throwing props Peter’s way when the bets being made are timely and prudent.

  22. Jaxon says:

    When I did my exercise to find the best AHL right hand D and setlled on Justin Holl, guess who was the top LHD. Jakub Jerabek. He was one of the very few top 31 in 5v5 Pts/60, 5v5 P1/60, 5v5TOI, & 5v5 GF%, just like Holl, but I was searching for a righty as I’d like to keep Russell on the left side. I think Holl would still be a good pickup.

  23. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    dustrock,

    Here’s hoping for a strong start and catching a couple of those strong teams napping to start the season.

  24. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    stephen sheps,

    – I concur: although I prefer the Golden Pheasant from Slovakia, as they still sell in in the large glass bottle. Beer tastes better in a glass

    – Becks used to be sold in the LCBO in thos large glass ones as well. Sadly they discontinued it here, although they still do in the US and in Quebec

    – I hate the LCBO they are like the casinos: they trick people into over-paying by building beautiful outlets. It is generally a garbage providor of poor wine that is over priced…

    – Just came back from France where I was reminded of the excellence when entrepreneurs are able to source directly and build totally different services and tastes from store to store (or you go to the Carrefour to buy the industrial swill…). The french laugh at the LCBO: the largest single buyer of wine: so they give them all the crap…

  25. ArmchairGM says:

    One guy i’d like to see in camp on a PTO is Ryan Sproul. He seems to have all the tools but can’t put it all together – and we have Yawney. Plus he’s a right shot who could effectively force (a) Russell to his natural side, and (b) management to return Bear and Bouchard to minors and juniors respectively.

  26. Melman says:

    A hopefully positive benefit of the Jerabek signing is that it was done instead of trying to trade for Faulk

  27. bendelson says:

    stephen sheps,

    Outstanding beer.
    Pilsner Urquell: ‘Did I drink that?’

    Oh, that’s a terrible joke…

  28. Bos8 says:

    stephen sheps:
    “He is from Plzen, Czech Republic”

    How have we gotten more than 20 comments in before someone mentioned he’s from the birthplace of Pilsner beer?

    Pilsner Urquell is one of my all-time favourites, and if you’re ever in that part of the world, find a bar that serves the unfiltered, unpasteurized cask conditioned version and you’re in for something special.

    Hopefully we can say the same about this mostly unknown player. Maybe he’ll surprise us all? At the very least, it’s a fairly low-risk bet.

    Urquel and Kupferberg Gold. Frantisek’s legacy in Edmonton.

    That’s the old Bistro Praha owner.

    Father Time, I am old.

  29. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    ArmchairGM:
    One guy i’d like to see in camp on a PTO is Ryan Sproul. He seems to have all the tools but can’t put it all together – and we have Yawney. Plus he’s a right shot who could effectively force (a) Russell to his natural side, and (b) management to return Bear and Bouchard to minors and juniors respectively.

    I would have preferred Sproul over Jerabek. I was actually hoping for any move that would avoid Benning or Russell as the 2nd RHD. We’ve got quite a few 5-6-7 guys now, but really only 3 top 4 guys at best if we’re being honest. Jerabek is a decent bet, but doesn’t move the needle at all IMO. If he’s supposed to be better than Gravel, why didn’t we sign him in July?

  30. Bag of Pucks says:

    stephen sheps:
    “He is from Plzen, Czech Republic”

    How have we gotten more than 20 comments in before someone mentioned he’s from the birthplace of Pilsner beer?

    Pilsner Urquell is one of my all-time favourites, and if you’re ever in that part of the world, find a bar that serves the unfiltered, unpasteurized cask conditioned version and you’re in for something special.

    Hopefully we can say the same about this mostly unknown player. Maybe he’ll surprise us all? At the very least, it’s a fairly low-risk bet.

    Spent a week in Prague hosting a poker tournament, Many Urquells were consumed to the point where one of my colleagues exclaimed, “This might be the best beer in the world. It tastes amazing and I never feel hungover” to which another colleague immediately retorted, “That’s because you have to STOP drinking to feel hungover!”

  31. Woogie63 says:

    How does the QO to Nurse work? If he rejects it he is in a great bargaining place to get a big long term contract with the Oilers.

  32. LadiesloveSmid says:

    You’d swear Yawney is Craig Ramsay by how big we think his impact will be!

  33. hunter1909 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: The french laugh at the LCBO: the largest single buyer of wine: so they give them all the crap…

    The buyers are probably idiots. The French are intolerant of fools.

  34. hunter1909 says:

    Woogie63:
    How does the QO to Nurse work?If he rejects it he is in a great bargaining place to get a big long term contract with the Oilers.

    Giving Nurse a long term contract, unless for a particularly low cap hit is foolish. He’s currently not anywhere near showing the level of ability of a top pairing defenceman.

    Obviously Oilers like to overpay in order to be free from silly cap space, but…

  35. geowal says:

    Well at least today hand wringing Chia loathing Oiler fans can gloat over a failed Flames first rounder

  36. hunter1909 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: I hate the LCBO they are like the casinos: they trick people into over-paying by building beautiful outlets.

    Not surprising when you factor in Alberta’s original liquor outlet – “Fort Whoop Up”

  37. hunter1909 says:

    geowal: hand wringing Chia loathing Oiler fans

    “Garth? I know I’ve no idea about Reinhart but since I’m feeling pressure from Kevin Lowe and his cronies to acquire him at all costs…how about 2 1st round picks for that fast declining AHL player from the Edmonton Oil Kings?”

    “Mr Shero? uhhh listen Mr Shero we’d really like that Swedish defenceman of yours. What do you think it will cost? …Taylor Hall? No problem!”

    “Garth, I’m really in a bind here. We’re having trouble unloading Eberle. I know, he was terrible in the playoffs, no idea why since he’d never even been in any NHL playoffs before. What!? You’re offering a semi-washed up 30 point project player on a 1 year contract!? Eberle’s yours!!”

  38. Infidels says:

    tileguy,

    Al those who have arthritis raise your – OW – never mind

  39. Woogie63 says:

    hunter1909: Giving Nurse a long term contract, unless for a particularly low cap hit is foolish. He’s currently not anywhere near showing the level of ability of a top pairing defenceman.

    Obviously Oilers like to overpay in order to be free from silly cap space, but…
    Power

    If Nurse does not have to accept that offer, that really swings some bargaining power to the party with no theoretical bargaining power. If I was Nurse’s agent this is s perfect time for a week at the cottage with no reception.

  40. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woogie63:
    How does the QO to Nurse work?If he rejects it he is in a great bargaining place to get a big long term contract with the Oilers.

    Well, the Oilers had to give qualifying offers (June 29 I believe) to the players they wanted to retain(in the absence signed contracts)

    The players either sign the QO or not (there is a long list of rules surrounding qualifying offers, but basically it’s the “minimum” a team has to offer in order to retain the player)

    Nurse didn’t sign the QO as he’s worth more than that, and the 2 sides haven’t agreed to a new contract yet

    Nurse doesn’t have much leverage because he doesn’t have arbitration rights- he either sits, agrees to a contract with the Oilers, or signs an offer sheet with another team (which the Oilers can match or take the compensation)

    We wait

  41. geowal says:

    hunter1909: “Garth? I know I’ve no idea about Reinhart but since I’m feeling pressure from Kevin Lowe and his cronies to acquire him at all costs…how about 2 1st round picks for that fast declining AHL player from the Edmonton Oil Kings?”

    “Mr Shero? uhhh listen Mr Shero we’d really like that Swedish defenceman of yours. What do you think it will cost? …Taylor Hall? No problem!”

    “Garth, I’m really in a bind here. We’re having trouble unloading Eberle. I know, he was terrible in the playoffs, no idea why since he’d never even been in any NHL playoffs before. What!? You’re offering a semi-washed up 30 point project player on a 1 year contract!? Eberle’s yours!!”

    To borrow from Mr Bag of Pucks:
    “….Some posters seem incapable of praising Chiarelli when he demonstrates acumen or does good work. That to me reveals bias, which in this case is the inability to separate the good work from the bad work. I suspect this is a result of certain posters being so disappointed with certain moves (Hall, Reinhart, Lucic) that they loathe the thought of giving credit for other transactions.”

    ———

    Surely we can agree to gloat (quietly, from behind that rock over there lest they see us and make your above comments) and enjoy something not working out for the Flames? If we can’t do that, we’re lost.

  42. v4ance says:

    I have stated in the recent past that Chiarelli has done well with low key, low dollar signings. This is another good incremental bet that may or may not turn out. Overall though, I still think Chiarelli has set back the organization more than he has helped because of his larger transactions.

    A co-worker was saying Jerabek reminds him of David Schlemko in terms of performance. Jerabek appears slightly better on offence but slightly weaker on defence. Schlemko has established himself as a passable top 4 defenceman whereas Jerebek hasn’t established how high in the lineup he can play.

  43. PigeonCamera says:

    geowal,

    Just curious about which Flame pick…do you mean Shinkaruk? He was a first rounder, but was drafted by Vancouver, acquired in exchange for Granlund. (Still a failed prospect at this point.)

  44. selective sam poll says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    RE: The Guns of Brixton comment about Chiarelli,

    I think this is a fair observation. Some posters seem incapable of praising Chiarelli when he demonstrates acumen or does good work. That to me reveals bias, which in this case is the inability to separate the good work from the bad work. I suspect this is a result of certain posters being so disappointed with certain moves (Hall, Reinhart, Lucic) that they loathe the thought of giving credit for other transactions.

    This community prides itself on doing its utmost to mitigate bias, so good on you LT for throwing props Peter’s way when the bets being made are timely and prudent.

    Mitigate bias? pfffft me thinks bias is growing here. We have people so entrenched on their sides with the war of Hall. If Lucic wasn’t connected to Hall, he would not receive the same amount of vitrol here. We would all say wow Lucic had a bad second half last year, sure hope he’s better this year and applies his trade. Nope, we get to read all the negatives of the Lucic signing backed up by “numbers”. forced swallow, yuck. To add insult to injury, some even pretend to they are objective in evaluating players like Lucic and Russell. Better to admit your bias so as to save the readers from Hangover movie moments with waking up a left tit
    Good thing we have a bit of balance here from Georgexs and VOR
    Once in a while we get good tidbits on hockey systems and structure from occasional posters. Thank buddha for that.

  45. hunter1909 says:

    selective sam poll: Once in a while we get good tidbits on hockey systems and structure from occasional posters. Thank buddha for that.

    Buddha doesn’t play hockey.

  46. hunter1909 says:

    v4ance: I have stated in the recent past that Chiarelli has done well with low key, low dollar signings. This is another good incremental bet that may or may not turn out. Overall though, I still think Chiarelli has set back the organization more than he has helped because of his larger transactions.

    Snap.

  47. Wilde says:

    I just realised I didn’t say much about Jerabek –

    – agree with Jon, best available fit

    – Benning + Puckmover pairings occasionally have ridiculous stretches of games, Sekera and Klefbom notably, should absolutely try that

    – I’m doing a thing on the Oilers powerplay personnel and did a quick look on Jerabek: He got two minutes in Montreal and that’s it

    – above all the coach has to like him

    – Chiarelli’s staff has a good eye for these EU D guys; Auvitu could have been very good for just 800k last year

  48. SwedishPoster says:

    Bag of Pucks: Spent a week in Prague hosting a poker tournament, Many Urquells were consumed to the point where one of my colleagues exclaimed, “This might be the best beer in the world. It tastes amazing and I never feel hungover” to which another colleague immediately retorted, “That’s because you have to STOP drinking to feel hungover!”

    Many good nights have started with a couple of Urquells. The czech know their beer, Staropramen is nice too, I always used to bring a couple of Staropramen Dark to parties to get a break in taste from the lighter beer usually served, did the trick very well.
    I was in prague this summer, they have a bunch of good stuff from smaller breweries as well, brilliant place for beer drinking.

  49. Gerta Rauss says:

    I hadn’t seen this posted yet but capfriendly has been updated this morning re: the Jerabek contract

    1 year $1M

  50. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woogie63: If Nurse does not have to accept that offer, that really swings some bargaining power to the party with no theoretical bargaining power.If I was Nurse’s agent this is s perfect time for a week at the cottage with no reception.

    sitting out and not playing is one of Nurse’s options

    I agree in principle that the Sekera injury does add another layer of complexity to this situation

  51. Wilde says:

    Question:

    If Nurse enters the season sitting without a contract, can they then sign him to a higher dollar long-term deal using the Sekera money?

  52. Bank Shot says:

    Its pretty common for bridge contracts to get settled in September.

    I’m not worried about Nurse not being there to start the season.

  53. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Wilde,

    Depends on how much they spend elsewhere, but plausibly. So long as Rej doesn’t play this year; otherwise they’d have to move out some salary elsewhere to balance the books.

  54. Gerta Rauss says:

    Bank Shot:
    Its pretty common for bridge contracts to get settled in September.

    I’m not worried about Nurse not being there to start the season.

    I agree-I’m not worried yet

  55. hunter1909 says:

    Gerta Rauss: sitting out and not playing is one of Nurse’s options

    I agree in principle that the Sekera injury does add another layer of complexity to this situation

    Nurse has too much character to pull this crap.

    I just took a pull straight out of a whisky bottle.

    Maybe they treat Nurse like the man he is…tell him…”the only long term deal you’re currently being offered is $30,000,000.00 over 7 years.” And btw we’re giving you a full NMC clause(since basically Oiler want to keep this dude for life so it’s simply a cheap bargaining chip that glitters to the Nurse legal team) … “oh and btw we have Connor Mc freaking David and you’re going to be one of the pillars of his Stanley Cup winning defence”

    Nurse grabs that and he’s set for life before 25.

    I hate the “wringing of hands” myself lol

  56. Bruce McCurdy says:

    hunter1909:
    “Garth, I’m really in a bind here. We’re having trouble unloading Eberle. I know, he was terrible in the playoffs, no idea why since he’d never even been in any NHL playoffs before. What!? You’re offering a semi-washed up 30 point project player on a 1 year contract!? Eberle’s yours!!”

    I liked Eberle plenty but don’t hate the trade as much as some do. NYI have one more year of him at $6 million & then he’s UFA. Whereas the re-upped Strome costs basically that same amount for TWO years with RFA rights at pact’s end.

    The $3 MM cap “savings” were wasted last season but certainly come in handy now.

  57. Gerta Rauss says:

    hunter1909: I just took a pull straight out of a whisky bottle.

    atta boy

  58. Gerta Rauss says:

    Wilde:
    Question:

    If Nurse enters the season sitting without a contract, can they then sign him to a higher dollar long-term deal using the Sekera money?

    I think so

    Capfriendly shows we have $3.97M in cap space after the Jerabek signing yesterday-that’ll cover most of a long term deal with Nurse

    It’s interesting that even the lawyers on this blog have a hard time deciphering the LTIR rules-I’m just a lowly network admin

  59. hunter1909 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I liked Eberle plenty but don’t hate the trade as much as some do. NYI have one more year of him at $6 million & then he’s UFA. Whereas the re-upped Strome costs basically that same amount for TWO years with RFA rights at pact’s end.

    The $3 MM cap “savings” were wasted last season but certainly come in handy now.

    Thanks Bruce. You’re on my top 5 Lowetide blogger list. Your voice is probably the number 1 voice of wisdom, compared to all the other competition.

    Eberle I’d naively figured as growing into a Team Canada stalwart. Speaking of the Oilers dynasty, I was watching them the other day and was amazed at the penalty kill. To put it mildly. Messier’s in the box, and in 4-4 playoff OT Kurri makes a blind pass up the boards and some fool with number 99 somehow manages to stumble with the puck toward the goal to score, away vs none other than the Calgary Flames.

    Then Sather makes a European rude gesture at the Calgary fans, which is hilarious.

    Makes me think. They could do worse than bring Sather back as GM on a 5 million a year 3 year contract. Flame away!

  60. selective sam poll says:

    hunter1909: Buddha doesn’t play hockey.

    A common misconception. He actually plays in a higher league where everyone can fly and push the river.

  61. Bruce McCurdy says:

    hunter1909,

    Thanks Hunter.

    I can still visualize that soft wall pass Kurri dumped up to Gretzky, a groin-hampered Al MacInnis scrambling, Gretzky sizing up his shot & hitting a puck-sized hole over Mike Vernon’s shoulder with a slap shot. What a great moment.

    Kurri sent Gretzky away more times than a few, when I think of the Oilers’ famed “transition game” I think of #17 first & foremost.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Is there any value to waiting until game 1 to get Sekera on LTIR and then signing Nurse to the longer term deal (assuming its not materially more than $5M)?

    In order for that to happen, does Nurse have to miss game 1?

  63. N64 says:

    if the following isn’t based on a misreading they can go over already and come into immediate compliance for season with the ltir and whatever paper tx.

    https://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2015/6/25/8819603/salary-cap-salary-floor-noncompliance-why-teams-dont-cheat

    “you can exceed the cap during the offseason by up to 10%. You’ll see this each year with teams like the Flyers who know that they’re going to use a LTIR exception on Chris Pronger all year (edit: LOL, guess we’ll go with the Bruins and Savard instead) , so they have no problem carrying a total hit above the cap. As soon as the season officially starts, he goes on LTIR and the Flyers meet their compliance requirements.”

  64. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Game one, or day one of the season? Is there a difference as far as we’re concerned?

  65. N64 says:

    sent Gretzky away.

    Sigh. Pocklington had a transition game too.

  66. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    great minds

  67. jtblack says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I liked Eberle plenty but don’t hate the trade as much as some do. NYI have one more year of him at $6 million & then he’s UFA. Whereas the re-upped Strome costs basically that same amount for TWO years with RFA rights at pact’s end.

    The $3 MM cap “savings” were wasted last season but certainly come in handy now.

    +1

  68. jtblack says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    hunter1909,

    Thanks Hunter.

    I can still visualize that soft wall pass Kurri dumped up to Gretzky, a groin-hampered Al MacInnis scrambling, Gretzky sizing up his shot & hitting a puck-sized hole over Mike Vernon’s shoulder with a slap shot. What a great moment.

    Kurri sent Gretzky away more times than a few, when I think of the Oilers’ famed “transition game” I think of #17 first & foremost.

    Great Memory as a kid. Calgary had the team to beat or at least scare Edmonton that year and Edmonton knew it. That series sweep and playoff run in 1988 (61-2) was sheer DOMINANCE. Top 2 lines were untouchable; balance of skill, grit, offense, defense sprinkled in with some magic.

    When Gretzky scored that goal, it was a sigh of relief and I think everybody knew they would be amped up at home. didn’t Sather finger the Calgary crowd after the goal?

  69. Gerta Rauss says:

    N64,

    That’s how I read the LTIR rules as well

    In fact, there is a provison called “the training camp equation”

    The second, the training-camp equation, can be used on the final day of the off-season in preparation for the first day of the season.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq

  70. godot10 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    You’d swear Yawney is Craig Ramsay by how big we think his impact will be!

    Craig Ramsey really helped in Dementor Year #2. Eakins didn’t make it to Christmas.

    #TheCoachIsStillTheCoach

  71. godot10 says:

    Gerta Rauss: Well, the Oilers had to give qualifying offers (June 29 I believe) to the players they wanted to retain(in the absence signed contracts)

    The players either sign the QO or not (there is a long list of rules surrounding qualifying offers, but basically it’s the “minimum” a team has to offer in order to retain the player)

    Nurse didn’t sign the QO as he’s worth more than that, and the 2 sides haven’t agreed to a new contract yet

    Nurse doesn’t have much leverage because he doesn’t have arbitration rights- he either sits, agrees to a contract with the Oilers, or signs an offer sheet with another team (which the Oilers can match or take the compensation)

    We wait

    Or Darnell can wait till the OIlers season is over by Halloween to sign a contract with the new GM.

  72. Gerta Rauss says:

    godot10: Or Darnell can wait till the OIlers season is over by Halloween to sign a contract with the new GM.

    lol

    yes, the Sekera injury adds intrigue to the discussions

  73. godot10 says:

    v4ance:
    I have stated in the recent past that Chiarelli has done well with low key, low dollar signings.This is another good incremental bet that may or may not turn out.Overall though, I still think Chiarelli has set back the organization more than he has helped because of his larger transactions.

    A co-worker was saying Jerabek reminds him of David Schlemko in terms of performance.Jerabek appears slightly better on offence but slightly weaker on defence.Schlemko has established himself as a passable top 4 defenceman whereas Jerebek hasn’t established how high in the lineup he can play.

    Replacing Pitlick and Lander with Kassian and Caggiula was a fail. Korpikoski was a fail. The Oilers are paying Gryba not to play. Where are all these low dollar successes?

  74. godot10 says:

    selective sam poll: Mitigate bias?pfffft me thinks bias is growing here. We have people so entrenched on their sides with the war of Hall.If Lucic wasn’t connected to Hall, he would not receive the same amount of vitrol here.We would all say wow Lucic had a bad second half last year, sure hope he’s better this year and applies his trade.Nope, we get to read all the negatives of the Lucic signing backed up by “numbers”. forced swallow, yuck. To add insult to injury, some even pretend to they are objective in evaluating players like Lucic and Russell.Better to admit your bias so as to save the readers from Hangover movie moments with waking up a left tit
    Good thing we have a bit of balance here from Georgexs and VOR
    Once in a while we get good tidbits on hockey systems and structure from occasional posters.Thank buddha for that.

    Lucic has been awful for two seasons as an Oiler. The only outlier was his good PP performance in his first season. But he has always been awful on the power play, so that was more due to McDavid and Draisaitl than Lucic.

  75. geowal says:

    PigeonCamera:
    geowal,

    Just curious about which Flame pick…do you mean Shinkaruk?He was a first rounder, but was drafted by Vancouver, acquired in exchange for Granlund.(Still a failed prospect at this point.)

    You’re right, I forgot about that trade, I wonder who I was thinking of.
    Gloat over the Canucks drafting?

  76. ArmchairGM says:

    Wilde:
    I just realised I didn’t say much about Jerabek –

    – agree with Jon, best available fit

    – Benning + Puckmover pairings occasionally have ridiculous stretches of games, Sekera and Klefbom notably, should absolutely try that

    – I’m doing a thing on the Oilers powerplay personnel and did a quick look on Jerabek: He got two minutes in Montreal and that’s it

    – above all the coach has to like him

    – Chiarelli’s staff has a good eye for these EU D guys; Auvitu could have been very good for just 800k last year

    Kinger? That you?

  77. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Is there any value to waiting until game 1 to get Sekera on LTIR and then signing Nurse to the longer term deal (assuming its not materially more than $5M)?

    In order for that to happen, does Nurse have to miss game 1?

    Without a contract, there is no reason for Nurse to be in Europe on his own dime.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    Nurse is still unsigned.Jerebek is currently in the top 5 based on signed defensemen.

    Of the teams with unsigned D looking for their 2nd contract, the team in the most critical situation is the Oilers, with the European start, the Sekera injury, and the opening schedule from hell.

    I have zero concern with Nurse not signing prior to camp unless they are agreeing to wait until day 1 to do it concurrently with the Sekera LTIR in order to sign a long term deal.

    Big money insurance would need to be taken out for Nurse to attend camp though…..

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    DBO:
    sneaky good pick up. He has upside, excelled in every league he played in (NHLe looks great). Defenseman of the year in the KHL is no small thing. And from all indications he battles defensively (so not Auvitu) and has a great first pass out of the zone. Everything we hope for.

    I expect we see this to start the year:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Russell
    Jerabek-Benning

    This pick up is a wait and see pick up, but better then last years hope the kids improve. This is a solid dman who is over 25 and has more experience and hopefully can handle the minutes and possibly the PP (everything we hoped for from a 3rd pairing Sekera at a fraction of the cost)

    Anton Belov was also the (a) top d-man in the KHL.

    With that said, I very much like this pick-up.

    I’ve read Marc Dumont’s pieces and listened to him on the air and it sounds like there is a player here who could surprise.

    P.S. I flip Benning and Russell.

    While Benning has excelled whenever he’s been third pairing and struggled up the lineup, I think there is a better chance of him establishing himself as a 2RD as he’s still getting better (and is not further removed from the concussion). We know that Russell is not great at 2RD and, while Benning hasn’t been in the past, he still might be.

  80. Wilde says:

    ArmchairGM: Kinger? That you?

    I steal his format sometimes when I’m too busy to build the structure for something longer form

  81. Melvis says:

    Could be the Oilers might be playing chicken with the Jets and the Morrissey signing.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilSafety:
    DBO,

    I believe the defenseman of the year award was from the Czech league, but still a noteworthy accomplishment.

    Mature, has played a mans game, already exposed to the North American game, worth a bet.

    I think that’s right – KHL 1st team all-star though.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Something I haven’t heard discussed around here is the potential ability of Gravel to play his offside.

    On Gregor’s show last week, Strudwick interviewed a beat reporter for the Kings.He had some faint praise for Gravel, saying he’s rangy with long arms and has a good stick, can fit in on the PK and is even suited for spot duty on the second PP unit, and (crucially) that he’s comfortable playing the right side.

    That could free up Benning to play 2RD with Nurse and keep Russell on the left of the third pairing.

    That is fantastic information.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Trouba didn’t sign to December in a similar situation.The Oilers season could be over by Halloween or Remembrance Day if he is not on the roster.

    There is zero indication that this is an acrimonious situation, none.

    The Trouba negotiations were acrimonious from day 1 including his request to be traded.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – All of Gravel, Jerabek, Russel, Benning I think we can reasonably say are able to play as the 5th/6th D in the NHL.None of them have a history of “helping” on a 2nd pairing.

    – Can one of them step-up in some combo to be top-4 is the question, and the opportunity.

    I have been very vocal against Russell at 2RD but, if I’m honest, he did “help” at 2RD in 2016/17 – he was polished big time by Sekera but that pairing played a 1B role and ate tough minutes.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock: Especially considering the October schedule

    Oct 6 – NJ in Cologne
    Oct 11 – @Boston
    Oct 13 – @NYR
    Oct 16 – @Wpg

    Oct 18 -Boston
    Oct 20 – Nashvile
    Oct 23 – Pittsburgh
    Oct 25 – Washington

    Oct 27 – @Nashville
    Oct 28 – @Chicago

    Oct 30 – Minnesota

    This is probably me just being overly-optimistic but I’m kind of OK with the really hard schedule in October. The Oilers just need to saw off and tread water during that stretch. If they are able to do so, they have one of the easiest schedules in the league for the last 2/3 of the season.

    They are going to do great!

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Melman:
    A hopefully positive benefit of the Jerabek signing is that it was done instead of trying to trade for Faulk

    Yup – a Faulk trade has the potential to be a disaster.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie63:
    How does the QO to Nurse work?If he rejects it he is in a great bargaining place to get a big long term contract with the Oilers.

    The QO was turned down months ago. It was nothing but a formality for the Oilers to retain his RFA rights (without a QO, Nurse would have become a UFA).

    Its a non-factor.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    Question:

    If Nurse enters the season sitting without a contract, can they then sign him to a higher dollar long-term deal using the Sekera money?

    Yes

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Game one, or day one of the season?Is there a difference as far as we’re concerned?

    I’m not sure but I do know they need to be cap compliant on day 1 which includes Sekera’s $5.5M and then, after the fact, they can put him on LTIR and we get a cushion to go over the upper cap limit and then could sign Nurse to the longer term deal.

    Of course, Sekera’s cap is back on without cushion for next year but we can deal with that over the summer.

    I don’t think we’d be able to sign Nurse after the LTIR cushion is provided in time to play game 1 but I’m not sure.

    Also, we wouldn’t want Nurse to miss camp because of this so, without a contract, he will need outside insurance and I believe that’s a massive expense.

  91. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: There is zero indication that this is an acrimonious situation, none.

    The Trouba negotiations were acrimonious from day 1 including his request to be traded.

    Acrimony or the lack thereof has nothing necessarily to do with the potential length of negotiations.

  92. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: Anton Belov was also the (a) top d-man in the KHL.

    With that said, I very much like this pick-up.

    I’ve read Marc Dumont’s pieces and listened to him on the air and it sounds like there is a player here who could surprise.

    P.S. I flip Benning and Russell.

    While Benning has excelled whenever he’s been third pairing and struggled up the lineup, I think there is a better chance of him establishing himself as a 2RD as he’s still getting better (and is not further removed from the concussion). We know that Russell is not great at 2RD and, while Benning hasn’t been in the past, he still might be.

    Maybe you should wait to flip Benning and Russell until Benning beats him out of a job. Don’t think that has happened yet.
    If it happens in camp, great.

  93. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not sure but I do know they need to be cap compliant on day 1 which includes Sekera’s $5.5M and then, after the fact, they can put him on LTIR and we get a cushion to go over the upper cap limit and then could sign Nurse to the longer term deal.

    Of course, Sekera’s cap is back on without cushion for next year but we can deal with that over the summer.

    I don’t think we’d be able to sign Nurse after the LTIR cushion is provided in time to play game 1 but I’m not sure.

    Also, we wouldn’t want Nurse to miss camp because of this so, without a contract, he will need outside insurance and I believe that’s a massive expense.

    Nurse missing training camp would be a big deal with respect to getting the season off to a good start.

  94. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: Or Darnell can wait till the OIlers season is over by Halloween to sign a contract with the new GM.

    If the Oilers season is over by Halloween as per your thought why would a new GM be in any hurry to sign Nurse? Seems to me given that the old GM will get the blame he would leave it at the qualifying offer and get points for the low ball contract he gets. A new GM would have all the power! Even if he has to match an offer sheet that is somewhat bad it still won’t be his fault! Nurse could end up sitting out the year!

  95. pts2pndr says:

    who: Maybe you should wait to flip Benning and Russell until Benning beats him out of a job. Don’t think that has happened yet.
    If it happens in camp, great.

    Why not see what Benning can do? Russel is the veteran signed to a contract that says he is capable!
    It would seem to me the logical and prudent thing to do would be to see just where Benning is at! If Benning is able to assume second pairing then the team is better for it! Waiting for an injury to hit before you find out seems not overly proactive to me!

  96. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: Nurse missing training camp would be a big deal with respect to getting the season off to a good start.

    Given the situation with new systems and coaching you are correct! It would not be a decision I would want to have on either side!

  97. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    DBO:
    sneaky good pick up. He has upside, excelled in every league he played in (NHLe looks great). Defenseman of the year in the KHL is no small thing. And from all indications he battles defensively (so not Auvitu) and has a great first pass out of the zone. Everything we hope for.

    I expect we see this to start the year:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Russell
    Jerabek-Benning

    This pick up is a wait and see pick up, but better then last years hope the kids improve. This is a solid dman who is over 25 and has more experience and hopefully can handle the minutes and possibly the PP (everything we hoped for from a 3rd pairing Sekera at a fraction of the cost)

    Agreed all points.

    I’m hopeful about this signing.

  98. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: Acrimony or the lack thereof has nothing necessarily to do with the potential length of negotiations.

    Only in a perfect world! Correct unless it becomes personal!

  99. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: but I do know they need to be cap compliant on day 1 which includes Sekera’s $5.5M and then, after the fact, they can put him on LTIR and we get a cushion to go over the upper cap limit and then could sign Nurse to the longer term deal.

    ~ know may not mean what you think it means. ~

    That LTIR can start before day 1.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq

    Can LTIR be used in the off-season?

    Yes, LTIR can be used in the off-season while the 10% off-season cushion is active. LTIR in the off-season is calculated using the basic equation outlined above, which permits a team to exceed the off-season salary cap. To use off-season LTIR the team must provide doctors proof that the player in question will continue to be injured at the beginning of the regular season for 10 NHL games and 24 calendar days. At the start of the season the teams LTIR relief & ACSL is recalculated when the 10% cushion is removed.

  100. Gerta Rauss says:

    N64,

    I agree

    again

  101. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    N64,

    – The Slovaks are notorious as a place you go to to get fake death certificates

    – If the Oil want Sek injured for the whole year, Sek’s Doctor is on it

  102. bendelson says:

    bendelson:
    stephen sheps,

    Outstanding beer.
    Pilsner Urquell:‘Did I drink that?’

    Oh, that’s a terrible joke…

    *crickets*

    I really should have known a Jaleel White joke would be too highbrow for the pseudo-intellectual Lowetide crowd.

  103. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Anton Belov was also the (a) top d-man in the KHL.

    With that said, I very much like this pick-up.

    I’ve read Marc Dumont’s pieces and listened to him on the air and it sounds like there is a player here who could surprise.

    P.S. I flip Benning and Russell.

    While Benning has excelled whenever he’s been third pairing and struggled up the lineup, I think there is a better chance of him establishing himself as a 2RD as he’s still getting better (and is not further removed from the concussion). We know that Russell is not great at 2RD and, while Benning hasn’t been in the past, he still might be.

    Belov couldn’t turn. The oilers used to love immobile big D like Gryba. Not that it worked after the last lockout when they arbitrarily started calling obstruction.

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OilSafety:
    DBO,

    I believe the defenseman of the year award was from the Czech league, but still a noteworthy accomplishment.

    Mature, has played a mans game, already exposed to the North American game, worth a bet.

    1st team all-star in the KHL

  105. Richard S.S. says:

    The Oilers can exceed the Offseason Cap by 10%, up to $87.45 Million. The Oilers can exceed the Inseason Cap by Sekera’s salary/LTIR, up to $85.0 Million. Sekera’s injury time might effect this number if he comes back early. Coming back and playing in the Postseason shouldn’t impact the Cap?

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I think this is a fair observation. Some posters seem incapable of praising Chiarelli when he demonstrates acumen or does good work.

    Can you name any after Caramel Batman/Cassandra and Verdite?

  107. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – I don’t think Nurse is ready to be the better player on a 2nd pairing, nor is Benning

    Why do you hate Nurse?

  108. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Primetime: I see it playing out this way as well.If Jerabek is in, then KR plays 3RHD.If Gravel is in, then KR plays 3LHD.Not sure all that switching is going to work out well for KR or the team.The battle between Gravel and Jerabek may have more to do with which side KR struggles with more, rather than their own abilities…

    Seeing as Jerabek is a puck mover I think he gets the nod over Gravel to start:

    77-6
    25th (if he’s signed)-83
    Jerabek-4

    25-4 was fantastic early in the season and not good at all later in the season.

    That’s why I think they start with 83 at 2RD, but the leash is short.

    Things might change at camp.

  109. Darth Tu says:

    Listening to Oilers Now at lunch time, and all the chat of the Habs for this season I had a somewhat unsettling thought. You know the way the Habs seem to be struggling to find a left shot defender to play the big minutes with Weber, what if they were to offer sheet Nurse?

  110. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stephen sheps:
    “He is from Plzen, Czech Republic”

    How have we gotten more than 20 comments in before someone mentioned he’s from the birthplace of Pilsner beer?

    Pilsner Urquell is one of my all-time favourites, and if you’re ever in that part of the world, find a bar that serves the unfiltered, unpasteurized cask conditioned version and you’re in for something special.

    Hopefully we can say the same about this mostly unknown player. Maybe he’ll surprise us all? At the very least, it’s a fairly low-risk bet.

    Love Pilsner Urquell.

    Only ever had it in the can.

    Best draft beer I ever had was Bitberger in Hanover.

    Un-freaking-real

  111. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Spent a week in Prague hosting a poker tournament, Many Urquells were consumed to the point where one of my colleagues exclaimed, “This might be the best beer in the world. It tastes amazing and I never feel hungover” to which another colleague immediately retorted, “That’s because you have to STOP drinking to feel hungover!”

    Hosting a poker tourney in Prague?

    More details are needed.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Without a contract, there is no reason for Nurse to be in Europe on his own dime.

    The situation I refer to is an agreement in principal is agreed to but they need to wait until they get the LTIR relief until its signed. This is not a situation where he’d be coming to camp while the negotiation process continues.

  113. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    You’d swear Yawney is Craig Ramsay by how big we think his impact will be!

    Well done.

    Hope springs eternal.

    That said, Yawney has a good track record albeit with some good raw materials.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Acrimony or the lack thereof has nothing necessarily to do with the potential length of negotiations.

    It has everything to do if you are trying to compare it to the Trouba negotiations.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Nurse missing training camp would be a big deal with respect to getting the season off to a good start.

    I have never suggested in any scenario that Nurse miss training camp – that would be an egregious circumstance.

  116. jeetz says:

    We want Nurse for 10 years. That’s the reason to bridge him. 2 x 3.5 mil, then pay him like a true #2 defenseman x 8 years. I don’t get why this is so hard.

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    selective sam poll: Mitigate bias?pfffft me thinks bias is growing here. We have people so entrenched on their sides with the war of Hall.If Lucic wasn’t connected to Hall, he would not receive the same amount of vitrol here.We would all say wow Lucic had a bad second half last year, sure hope he’s better this year and applies his trade.Nope, we get to read all the negatives of the Lucic signing backed up by “numbers”. forced swallow, yuck. To add insult to injury, some even pretend to they are objective in evaluating players like Lucic and Russell.Better to admit your bias so as to save the readers from Hangover movie moments with waking up a left tit
    Good thing we have a bit of balance here from Georgexs and VOR
    Once in a while we get good tidbits on hockey systems and structure from occasional posters.Thank buddha for that.

    We would also accept “Lucic has scored at a 3rd line rate since he became an Oilers despite significant time with the best player on Earth”

  118. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I have never suggested in any scenario that Nurse miss training camp – that would be an egregious circumstance.

    If Nurse doesn’t have a signed contract, he is not going to come to training camp.

  119. Bank Shot says:

    Darth Tu:
    Listening to Oilers Now at lunch time, and all the chat of the Habs for this season I had a somewhat unsettling thought.You know the way the Habs seem to be struggling to find a left shot defender to play the big minutes with Weber, what if they were to offer sheet Nurse?

    I think the Habs would rather keep their probable high lottery pick.

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    Question:

    If Nurse enters the season sitting without a contract, can they then sign him to a higher dollar long-term deal using the Sekera money?

    They need Nurse’s salary to get them up near the cap to maximize Sekera’s LTIR.

    I know Nurse’s agent is pissed that there isn’t enough room for a long term contract because he said as much publicly.

    Sekera going down has thrown a curve ball at all of this and I don’t know all the implications.

    Right now they just have a hair under $4MM available with 22 players signed.

    I therefore project Nurse, 1 year $3.75MM.

    Book it!!

  121. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Is there any value to waiting until game 1 to get Sekera on LTIR and then signing Nurse to the longer term deal (assuming its not materially more than $5M)?

    In order for that to happen, does Nurse have to miss game 1?

    I don’t think they can get high enough to the cap without Nurse signed for it to make much of a difference.

    You get cap relief from LTIR if you’re against the cap, doesn’t help if the salary on LTIR is less than the distance from the cap to salary (ie. Cap is $80MM Sekera is $5MM, Oilers at $72MM when they put Sekera on LTIR gives them no room, Oilers at $79MM when they put Sekera on LTIR gives them $4MM in room)

  122. Bling says:

    Put me on record as liking the Jerabek signing a lot. Great job, Chia!!!

    Reading Basu and Dumont’s articles over at the Athletic, it sounds like you have a guy who was the third best D on the team statistically (behind Weber and Petry), who played well against top opponents for a brief stretch but then had his TOI cut because the Canadiens wanted to play their prospects.

    Here’s a golden quote from Claude Julien from Basu’s article: “First of all I think he’s responsible, but the other part too is he makes a good outlet pass, so when you’re playing against the other team’s top lines, the quicker you get out of your own end, the better it is,” Julien said that day. “He’s capable of doing that.”

    Nice!!

    Interesting stat: Jerabek was 63rd amongst NHL D in EV scoring last season who played at least 500 even strength minutes. He is in the range of some pretty famous names.

    I like the idea of having guys on the 3rd pairing who are fully capable of playing second pairing minutes. Jerabek has already played against tough comp and done well, and that was on a horrible team. He’ll be an excellent candidate to anchor that third pairing (and maybe more).

  123. leadfarmer says:

    Bank Shot: I think the Habs would rather keep their probable high lottery pick.

    4 mil is only a second round pick. Probably more than the Oil are offering

  124. Glovjuice says:

    stephen sheps:
    “He is from Plzen, Czech Republic”

    How have we gotten more than 20 comments in before someone mentioned he’s from the birthplace of Pilsner beer?

    Pilsner Urquell is one of my all-time favourites, and if you’re ever in that part of the world, find a bar that serves the unfiltered, unpasteurized cask conditioned version and you’re in for something special.

    Hopefully we can say the same about this mostly unknown player. Maybe he’ll surprise us all? At the very least, it’s a fairly low-risk bet.

    Man, that made my mouth water after just finishing my weekday only one beer after work routine, shit.

  125. --hudson-- says:

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/edmonton-oilers-have-offered-try-out-to-brandon-davidson-but-made-right-choice-in-jakub-jerabek

    David Staples reporting that Reid Wilkins reported that Davidson turned down a PTO. Good for Chiarelli to keep trying to improve the depth. Good on Davy for recognizing his best options may be away from Edmonton

  126. Jordan says:

    bendelson: *crickets*

    I really should have known a Jaleel White joke would be too highbrow for the pseudo-intellectual Lowetide crowd.

    As millennial who quite enjoyed Family Matters, I thought the joke was very clever.

    As someone who prefers German or Russian stouts, your selection of beer leaves much to be desired.

    2.5 out of 5 (this rating could be improved with several bottles for pseudo-intellectual evaluation)

  127. OilClog says:

    Chia wants to make a good, PTO Hemsky ffs.

  128. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Anton Belov was also the (a) top d-man in the KHL.

    With that said, I very much like this pick-up.

    I’ve read Marc Dumont’s pieces and listened to him on the air and it sounds like there is a player here who could surprise.

    P.S. I flip Benning and Russell.

    While Benning has excelled whenever he’s been third pairing and struggled up the lineup, I think there is a better chance of him establishing himself as a 2RD as he’s still getting better (and is not further removed from the concussion). We know that Russell is not great at 2RD and, while Benning hasn’t been in the past, he still might be.

    Anton Belov with EDM

    2nd pair deployment
    Rel CF% +2.6
    RelT CF% +2.9
    Rel GF +3.7
    RelT GF% 3.5
    RelT xGF% +4.6

    The problem with Belov was the coach, not Belov.

    Had slow feet in close but compensated well.

    It’s *always* what you create minus what you give up.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: If Nurse doesn’t have a signed contract, he is not going to come to training camp.

    Although unlikely, I have already provided a potential scenario – yes, players have gone to camp with outside insurance.

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I don’t think they can get high enough to the cap without Nurse signed for it to make much of a difference.

    You get cap relief from LTIR if you’re against the cap, doesn’t help if the salary on LTIR is less than the distance from the cap to salary (ie. Cap is $80MM Sekera is $5MM, Oilers at $72MM when they put Sekera on LTIR gives them no room, Oilers at $79MM when they put Sekera on LTIR gives them $4MM in room)

    Yes, I understand that you need to be at the cap to get the LTIR bonus cushion but maybe there is a timing issue I’m not appreciating. If they are at $77M on day 1 and then LTIR Sekera there is no LTIR cushion, however, if they then sign Nurse for $5.5M with a $2.5M cushion or is the cushion only applicable with reference to the cap hit at the time he’s placed on LTIR?

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    –hudson–:
    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/edmonton-oilers-have-offered-try-out-to-brandon-davidson-but-made-right-choice-in-jakub-jerabek

    David Staples reporting that Reid Wilkins reported that Davidson turned down a PTO.Good for Chiarelli to keep trying to improve the depth.Good on Davy for recognizing his best options may be away from Edmonton

    I don’t think Davidson turned it down because he doesn’t want to be in Edmonton but, from accounts, he’s holding out for a contract (although current offers have all been 2-way deals.

  132. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: We would also accept “Lucic has scored at a 3rd line rate since he became an Oilers despite significant time with the best player on Earth”

    Not to be a hindsight revisionist person BUT, I think we all watched Lucic play with McDavid early in 2016 and you could see TRACTOR TRAILER trying to mesh with an F16 FIGHTER JET.

    Silky hands with cement hands. Just didnt work and hasnt since.

    Lucic is better with Drai or Strome who play slower and rely more in the cycle.

  133. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Anton Belov with EDM

    2nd pair deployment
    Rel CF% +2.6
    RelT CF% +2.9
    Rel GF +3.7
    RelT GF% 3.5
    RelT xGF% +4.6

    The problem with Belov was the coach, not Belov.

    Had slow feet in close but compensated well.

    It’s *always* what you create minus what you give up.

    For 16 min a night. Some of these bottom of roster d underplay their corgis

  134. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Anton Belov with EDM

    2nd pair deployment
    Rel CF% +2.6
    RelT CF% +2.9
    Rel GF +3.7
    RelT GF% 3.5
    RelT xGF% +4.6

    The problem with Belov was the coach, not Belov.

    Had slow feet in close but compensated well.

    It’s *always* what you create minus what you give up.

    Actually I shouldn’t blame Eakins.

    Marc Dumont made a good point about Jerabek that relates to Belov.

    MTL was a pile of shit last year.

    They had 1/2 a season of garbage time.

    So, like any good NHL teams they give reps to the kids.

    EDM did the same thing in 13/14 when Belov played.

    At least they gave reps to players under contract longer than Belov.

    Often you can’t blame the coach for that.

    In one of Dumont’s pieces he showed Julien giving Jerabek praise and then when Jerabek was scratched he mentioned developing “the future”

  135. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Acrimony or the lack thereof has nothing necessarily to do with the potential length of negotiations.

    If Nurse’s agent doesn’t squeeze Pete because of the situation then Nurse should fire his agent.

  136. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Darth Tu:
    Listening to Oilers Now at lunch time, and all the chat of the Habs for this season I had a somewhat unsettling thought.You know the way the Habs seem to be struggling to find a left shot defender to play the big minutes with Weber, what if they were to offer sheet Nurse?

    Right after they gave Alzner $4.625 x 5

    Christ.

    WSH wins The Cup after their defacto 1LD who bled chances and goals is gone.

    Alzner is like Boumeester and Phaneuf.

    Their NHL reputations haven’t matched their NHL play in 5+ years.

  137. Pescador says:

    jtblack: Not to be a hindsight revisionist person BUT, I think we all watched Lucic play with McDavid early in 2016 and you could see TRACTOR TRAILER trying to mesh with an F16 FIGHTER JET.

    Silky hands with cement hands. Just didnt work and hasnt since.

    Lucic is better with Drai or Strome who play slower and rely more in the cycle.

    If Mcdavid is an F-16 Fighter, then Draisaitl is a Stealth Bomber,
    Last year Lucic was the Wagon that was being pulled by War Horse.
    Hopefully this season he can improve to a Panzer Tank minimum

  138. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: For 16 min a night.Some of these bottom of roster d underplay their corgis

    Goals don’t matter when your mind is made up eh?

  139. leadfarmer says:

    I’m heading to Montreal and Quebec City in a week. I was wondering if anyone has any recommendations. Food. Things to see. Drinks. The usual.
    Thanks all

  140. Pescador says:

    Jordan: As millennial who quite enjoyed Family Matters, I thought the joke was very clever.

    As someone who prefers German or Russian stouts, your selection of beer leaves much to be desired.

    2.5 out of 5 (this rating could be improved with several bottles for pseudo-intellectual evaluation)

    There are plenty of excellent local stout brews available in western Canada.
    German Wheat beer on the other hand has yet to approached.
    Family Matters was one of the worst sit-com’s ever invented.
    I give your post at 3 out 5.
    😁

  141. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Well when you get to take a shift off every few shifts and get subbed out on the back to back games you should have a little more to give. Like when you see an energy player hit everything in sight. You can do it for some minutes. Gets really hard to do for more minutes. Latestube has a comment about limiting his minutes made him more productive. More minutes hurts your recovery. More tired more mistakes harder to give it all each shift

  142. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer:
    I’m heading to Montreal and Quebec City in a week.I was wondering if anyone has any recommendations.Food.Things to see.Drinks.The usual.
    Thanks all

    Poutine, Molson Export, Red Light district.
    Montreal Tre-fecta

  143. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, I understand that you need to be at the cap to get the LTIR bonus cushion but maybe there is a timing issue I’m not appreciating. If they are at $77M on day 1 and then LTIR Sekera there is no LTIR cushion, however, if they then sign Nurse for $5.5M with a $2.5M cushion or is the cushion only applicable with reference to the cap hit at the time he’s placed on LTIR?

    the cap friendly link provided by gerta is very definite that you can use the sekera ltir during the preseaon to create the cushion for immediate use.

    Training-Camp Equation Example
    The league upper limit is $69M. A team has an averaged club salary of $71M and a player with a cap hit of $5M ($5M cap hit, $0 in performance bonuses) becomes injured and the team places him on LTIR. The LTIR relief pools are calculated as follows:
    Team cap hit = $71M
    ACSL = $71M – $5M = $66M
    LTIR relief:
    Base salary relief pool: $5M
    Performance bonus pool: $0

    You lose the 10% wiggle room when the season starts, but you do not lose the cushion.

    ltir THEN signing THEN game 1. Perfectly valid order.

  144. Gerta Rauss says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes,I understand that you need to be at the cap to get the LTIR bonus cushion but maybe there is a timing issue I’m not appreciating.If they are at $77M on day 1 and then LTIR Sekera there is no LTIR cushion, however, if they then sign Nurse for $5.5M with a $2.5M cushion or is the cushion only applicable with reference to the cap hit at the time he’s placed on LTIR?

    I think you’re over thinking this OP

    Teams can be over the cap during the off season (you know this)

    If they sign Nurse to $5.5M their cap would be

    $75,521,166.00-projected cap hit today as per cap friendly (without Nurse)
    $5,500,000-Nurse contract
    $81,021,166-total cap on the last day of training camp ( over the cap, but well within the 10% allowed during the off season)
    subtract (up to) $5,500,000-Sekera to LTIR on the last day of training camp
    $75,521,166.00 day 1 cap hit meets compliance

    that’s the LTIR for dummies explanation-I include myself in this group-and fully acknowledge it’s more complex than that (cap space is calculated daily,accruable cap space limit,bonus pools etc etc)

    I think they can sign Nurse anytime-tomorrow even-and still have room to add another $3.8M (est) if they wanted to

    They can place Sekera on LTIR on the last day of training camp to bring themselves into compliance-the Flyers did this for years with the Pronger contract

  145. Gerta Rauss says:

    N64,

    lol

  146. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bling:
    Put me on record as liking the Jerabek signing a lot. Great job, Chia!!!

    Reading Basu and Dumont’s articles over at the Athletic, it sounds like you have a guy who was the third best D on the team statistically (behind Weber and Petry), who played well against top opponents for a brief stretch but then had his TOI cut because the Canadiens wanted to play their prospects.

    Here’s a golden quote from Claude Julien from Basu’s article: “First of all I think he’s responsible, but the other part too is he makes a good outlet pass, so when you’re playing against the other team’s top lines, the quicker you get out of your own end, the better it is,” Julien said that day. “He’s capable of doing that.”

    Nice!!

    Interesting stat: Jerabek was 63rd amongst NHL D in EV scoring last season who played at least 500 even strength minutes. He is in the range of some pretty famous names.

    I like the idea of having guys on the 3rd pairing who are fully capable of playing second pairing minutes. Jerabek has already played against tough comp and done well, and that was on a horrible team. He’ll be an excellent candidate to anchor that third pairing (and maybe more).

    If I had read this before my last post I wouldn’t have posted my last post.

  147. N64 says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    N64,

    lol

    ~ One of these hours OP will stop making us agree with each other ~

  148. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Well when you get to take a shift off every few shifts and get subbed out on the back to back games you should have a little more to give.Like when you see an energy player hit everything in sight.You can do it for some minutes.Gets really hard to do for more minutes.Latestube has a comment about limiting his minutes made him more productive.More minutes hurts your recovery.More tired more mistakes harder to give it all each shift

    14min is not 8 min

    That’s also his blended number.

    He played 2nd pair with Benn

  149. Gerta Rauss says:

    N64: ltir THEN signing THEN game 1. Perfectly valid order.

    I think we’re in disagreement here-I could be overlooking something

    Shouldn’t it be:
    signing(s) up to 10% over the cap (or Sekera’s $5.5M whichever comes first )THEN Sekera to LTIR on the last day of training camp THEN game 1..?

    What am I missing..?

  150. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Right after they gave Alzner $4.625 x 5

    Christ.

    WSH wins The Cup after their defacto 1LD who bled chances and goals is gone.

    Alzner is like Boumeester and Phaneuf.

    Their NHL reputations haven’t matched their NHL play in 5+ years.

    Re-reading WSH fans’ old Orlov v. Alzner debates is a guilty pleasure of mine

  151. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Bos8: Urquel and Kupferberg Gold.Frantisek’s legacy in Edmonton.

    That’s the old Bistro Praha owner.

    Father Time, I am old.

    Bistro Praha! Forgot about that place. I used to go there on Saturdays and meet my brother. This was in 1989. I was working on an undergrad about to go to Calgary medicine. He was a family doctor in Edmonton area.

    Sadly he died unexpectedly 4 years ago. I still miss those lazy Saturday afternoons there.

  152. Gerta Rauss says:

    N64,Gerta Rauss: I think we’re in disagreement here-I could be overlooking something

    Shouldn’t it be:
    signing(s) up to 10% over the cap (or Sekera’s $5.5M whichever comes first )THEN Sekera to LTIR on the last day of training camp THEN game 1..?

    What am I missing..?

    Actually, nevermind, I think we’re arguing over the same side of the coin-it’s just a matter of when they want to place Sekera on LTIR

    We’re in agreement they can make roster move(s) before game 1

  153. N64 says:

    Gerta Rauss: I think we’re in disagreement here-I could be overlooking something

    Shouldn’t it be:
    signing(s) up to 10% over the cap (or Sekera’s $5.5M whichever comes first )THEN Sekera to LTIR on the last day of training camp THEN game 1..?

    What am I missing..?

    The cap friendly example creates the cushion first and then applies it before the season starts. not sure if it’s that strict if all moves are pre-season.

  154. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Anton Belov with EDM

    2nd pair deployment
    Rel CF% +2.6
    RelT CF% +2.9
    Rel GF +3.7
    RelT GF% 3.5
    RelT xGF% +4.6

    The problem with Belov was the coach, not Belov.

    Had slow feet in close but compensated well.

    It’s *always* what you create minus what you give up.

    – This reminds me of Ricki when he says Fistric was #1 D.

    – I don’t care how you parse the numbers, Belov wasn’t a NHL D full-stop, and it wasn’t the coaches fault. If your chosen model suggests that Belov was a top-4 d, your numbers are wrong.

    – You’ve parsed the numbers, got something that is what is but it isn’t what you think it is: small sample size variance noise, with stats that you think judge what constitutes a top-4 D, but doesn’t

    – he was a Euro Griff: big guy who didn’t use his body and couldn’t score, and got walked…

    * I should have prefaced this with “I’m a huge Belov fan” in order to sound really objective in my critique of your assessment

  155. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If Nurse’s agent doesn’t squeeze Pete because of the situation then Nurse should fire his agent.

    A hard negotiation doesn’t have to be acrimonious. “It’s not personal, Sonny. It’s strictly business.”

  156. selective sam poll says:

    Woodguy v2.0: We would also accept “Lucic has scored at a 3rd line rate since he became an Oilers despite significant time with the best player on Earth”

    While we’re at this couldn’t score with the best player on earth thing. Eberle and Hall didn’t have chemistry with Mcdavid either. Eberle couldn’t score with 97 and hopes were dashed in the land of “scoring is the hardest thing to do in the NHL”. So this is a much bigger failure given scoring is the only thing he can do.
    Everyone here has their bias and most are amusing, ie
    hunter – lowe/mact
    Opouzar – malone
    LT – franson, i swear he’s 50’s yrs old already but let’s give him a PTO
    godot – mediocre coach
    bag of pucks – loves yakupov
    Just to name a few. But they lack the arrogance that you display though. To borrow from George last week, don’t be over confident about your conclusions with certain methodologies. It’s still debatable.
    I can’t wait for VOR ‘s post on the analytics shortcomings.

  157. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer: lead

    I`m heading to Quebec C also (not then, later in fall ) what to do in a day would be much appreciated!

  158. Wilde says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: This reminds me of Ricki

    With all due respect Kinger, if anyone but Ricki reminds you of Ricki you may be overreacting

  159. Melvis says:

    leadfarmer,

    The women.

  160. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Goals don’t matter when your mind is made up eh?

    Watching I thought Belov wasn`t bad. PC might get it a bit more.

    But he was really in the NHL a stay at home type, and they tried to ram that square peg in a round hole. Repeatedly. Foot blown off.

  161. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Faulk

    At the news of the Sekera injury, I had contemporaneously wrote about the putative Faulk trade first prefacing that Woodguy hates him…

    Then I read a thread or two where Woodguy’s on board because it makes sense.

    Now you’re here polemicizing a potential trade. Really, I wouldn’t worry too much because the Canes want what we don’t have to spare… scoring forwards.

    “Disaster” is a bit of an overstatement. I don’t see even Pistol Pete trading any one of a 1st rounder, Yamamoto, or JP for two years of Faulk coming off a bad season.

    Let’s start with the worst case scenario… Faulk’s done and the Oilers miraculously have six better defenseman this up coming season. They can’t move the last year of his contract and have to buy him out. The incur 833k cap hit next season (19-20) and two million after.

    I doubt that would happen as he’s currently a 26-year-old right shot dman with no major health issues to date. I’ve seen more optimism on your behalf on the Oilers ability to move NMC Russell next season.

    I would only trade for Faulk if the price was right—I.e. Carolina wants to save actual dollars, but even in an unlikely worst case scenario which would be bad for Katz financiallly, it wouldn’t be a disaster. Or at least it would certainly be more palatable than buying out Russell next season. (917k, 3.4m, 917k, 917k)

  162. frjohnk says:

    selective sam poll: Eberle couldn’t score with 97

    One of the bigger myths in Oiler Nation.

    Eberle with McDavid
    15-16 2.72pts/60
    16-17 2.23pts/60

    Lucic with McDavid
    16-17 1.46pts/60
    17-18 1.43pts/60

    Draisaitl with McDavid
    16-17 2.22pts/60
    17-18 2.65pts/60

    EDIT: This is a prime example on why there is value in analytics.

    Analytics in their basic form such as pts/60 is basically the eyetest written down. Our eyes may see everything but our mind can only remember so much. And if our mind is made up on a certain player ( whether it be Lucic or Eberle or whoever) our minds can play tricks on us as we could say crazy stuff like “Eberle couldn’t score with McDavid”

    Crazy huh?

  163. Wilde says:

    Ryan,

    this is a level & concise take on the Faulk situation

  164. Scungilli Slushy says:

    selective sam poll:
    Woodguy v2.0: We would also accept “Lucic has scored at a 3rd line rate since he became an Oilers despite significant time with the best player on Earth”

    While we’re at this couldn’t score with the best player on earth thing. Eberle and Hall didn’t have chemistry with Mcdavid either.Eberle couldn’t score with 97 and hopes were dashed in the land of “scoring is the hardest thing to do in the NHL”. So this is a much bigger failure given scoring is the only thing he can do.
    Everyone here has their bias and most are amusing, ie
    hunter – lowe/mact
    Opouzar – malone
    LT – franson, i swear he’s 50’s yrs old already but let’s give him a PTO
    godot – mediocre coach
    bag of pucks – loves yakupov
    Just to name a few.But they lack the arrogance that you display though.To borrow from George last week, don’t be over confident about your conclusions with certain methodologies.It’s still debatable.
    I can’t wait for VOR ‘s post on the analytics shortcomings.

    I can`t agree with this. Of anybody who has been around longish here in a recognizable form, WG has been the most pliable and dinkish and apologetic poster.

    Certainly the numbers are not right. Certainly WG has repeatedly said context is important.

    I think that what Vor says about body development and neuro training would jump the pack for NHL teams. Tracking and that is just for the laypeople trying to get a leg up on future success. NHL coaches know what they see and want, the biggest trick is getting available players at their max potential.

    That is what separates teams and makes champions.

  165. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Wilde: With all due respect Kinger, if anyone but Ricki reminds you of Ricki you may be overreacting

    – No offence but I’m a fan of Ricki with all due-respect.

    * I mean this with irony, as I’ve used the three phrases that don’t mean what they say, and are often used here and elsewhere to appear to be conciliatory and measured.

    – Interestingly, in the UK “with all due respect” is actually used correctly. It isn’t a pretend way of appearing fair . You are actually calling the person out. It’s meant and understood to be an insult.

  166. Georgexs says:

    LT: “Impact or generational talents are gone by No. 3 overall”

    – 2398 forwards drafted from 2000 to 2017.

    – 1017 (42%) have played a game in the NHL

    – 704 (less than 1 in 3) have played 40 or more games

    – 8 have played 40 or more games and scored 1 or more points per game

    – 6 of the 8 were taken first overall and one of the 8 was taken second overall

    Any guesses on the mystery man, and, for that matter, the other 7? Bonus to anyone who, unlike me, doesn’t have to check the Internet.

  167. godot10 says:

    Georgexs:
    LT: “Impact or generational talents are gone by No. 3 overall”

    – 2398 forwards drafted from 2000 to 2017.

    – 1017 (42%) have played a game in the NHL

    – 704 (less than 1 in 3) have played 40 or more games

    – 8 have played 40 or more games and scored 1 or more points per game

    – 6 of the 8 were taken first overall and one of the 8 was taken second overall

    Any guesses on the mystery man, and, for that matter, the other 7? Bonus to anyone who, unlike me, doesn’t have to check the Internet.

    It was Barzal all along!

  168. Georgexs says:

    So 1 or more points per game is rarefied air. It’s below that mark that things get interesting.

    Let’s look at forwards drafted since 2000 who have played at least 40 games in the NHL.

    Here’s a breakdown of player counts for different PPG ranges:

    8, >= 1.0
    24, [0.8 to 1.0)
    90, [0.6 to 0.8)
    161, [0.4 to 0.6)
    421, < 0.4

    BRB

  169. godot10 says:

    godot10: It was Barzal all along!

    Connor McDavid
    Sidney Crosby
    Evgeni Malkin
    Patrick Kane
    Alex Ovechkin
    Steven Stamkos
    Ilya Kovalchuk

    I had to cheat on Kovalchuk. Picked Tavares first.

  170. godot10 says:

    godot10: Connor McDavid
    Sidney Crosby
    Evgeni Malkin
    Patrick Kane
    Alex Ovechkin
    Steven Stamkos
    Ilya Kovalchuk

    I had to cheat on Kovalchuk.Picked Tavares first.

    Barzal is too small a sample size to make much of at this point. He got to play behind Tavares, and got to play with Eberle. And with a coach who let him play.

  171. HT Joe says:

    leadfarmer:
    I’m heading to Montreal and Quebec City in a week.I was wondering if anyone has any recommendations.Food.Things to see.Drinks.The usual.
    Thanks all

    I visited Quebec City a couple of weeks ago, and It was lovely… the old town and surrounding stone wall was very cool. When you walk to Chateau Frontenac, take the funicular down the hill.

    If you are into life’s nerdier pleasures (board games, collectibles, puzzles, video games, comics, etc.), you have never seen a place like this: https://imaginaire.com. It is the size of the old HMV in West Edmonton Mall.

    (I figure everyone else will point out the cooler attractions)

    *EDIT* Imaginaire’s stock included hockey collectables. Scaled replicas of Sam Gagner and Sheldon Souray were in the discount section. 🙁

    Have fun!

  172. Bos8 says:

    I’m partial to Paulaner Weissbier, no excuses.

  173. Bling says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    No worries at all, it’s a good thing that we’re in agreement!

  174. Bling says:

    leadfarmer,

    I don’t know too much about Quebec, but for Montreal:

    1 – Atwater Cocktail Club and/or Big in Japan for drinks. ACC is a bit louder, but has amazing drinks. Also consider the Cloak Room.

    2 – Foiegwa is an awesome restaurant. Fried chicken is great and so is the truffle spaghetti. Also the foie gras. Great cocktails as well. Others: Damas, Milos, Pied du Couchon and Park Sushi.

    3 – Cafe Olimpico has IMO the city’s best latté. It’s in Mile End, which is a cool area to walk around in.

    4 – Mont Royal! Walk to the top! Tam Tams is on Sunday.
    5 – Bike Ride through the city. So many dedicated bike paths all over.

    6 – Musee de Beaux Arts

    7 – Beer. Dieu du Ciel! I believe one of their beers made it to the list of world’s best beers. There are also a ton of microbrew places on St Denis, just south of Sherbrooke.

    8 – Brunch. Sparrow OR Reservoir; the latter is probably my fav microbrew spot in the city.

    9 – Poutine. La Banquise is the famous spot.

    10 – Schwarz’s for smoked meat, Fairmont or St Viateur for Montreal bagels.

    You can’t go wrong in Montreal!

  175. jtblack says:

    Bling,

    Been to Montreal once for a hockey trip (PHI, NYI, NYR, MTL).

    MTL as a city is Amazing. Hockey Town. EPIC

  176. Georgexs says:

    Georgexs:
    So 1 or more points per game is rarefied air. It’s below that mark that things get interesting.

    Let’s look at forwards drafted since 2000 who have played at least 40 games in the NHL.

    Here’s a breakdown of player counts for different PPG ranges:

    8, >= 1.0
    24, [0.8 to 1.0)
    90, [0.6 to 0.8)
    161, [0.4 to 0.6)
    421, < 0.4

    BRB

    Lets’ give the PPG ranges from above the following labels:

    A1: 8, >= 1.0
    A2: 24, [0.8, 1.0)
    B: 90, [0.6, 0.8)
    C: 161, [0.4, 0.6)
    D: 421, < 0.4

    A1, A2: rare offensive talents, 1 or 2 are drafted every year

    B: strong 1st or 2nd line players, about 5 are drafted every year

    C: score enough to have a career players, 3rd line types, sometimes jumping up in the lineup, but rarely hanging on; around 10 are drafted every year

    D: role players; replacement level offense

    Now let's cross tabulate player counts by PPG labels and draft position for first round picks. (Forwards selected from 2000 to 2017 who have played at least 40 games.)

    Draft Position, A1 Count, A2 Count, B Count, C Count, D Count

    1-10, 7, 14, 34, 30, 24

    11-20, 1, 3, 12, 22, 42

    21-30, 0, 3, 12, 24, 36

    This fits with what I've shown the past couple of days. The first 10 picks contain a disproportionate amount of offensive talent in comparison to the remaining picks. The cream rises to the top.

    But the remaining first round picks look similar in the type of players and results that are selected (or produced). We don't see a dropoff in the likelihood of finding offensive talent as we move from the middle 10 picks to the bottom 10 picks.

    Now let's have a look at the picks from the second round:

    Draft Position, A1 Count, A2 Count, B Count, C Count, D Count

    31-40, 0, 0, 6, 5, 27

    41-50, 0, 0, 3, 8, 30

    51-60, 0, 1, 3, 13, 28

    Only 1 second round forward selection has emerged as an A talent. There are a few B's and C's and mostly D's. The first 10 picks produce more B players but fewer C and D players. Overall though, draft position in the second round doesn't seem to strongly predict success in finding offensive talent. Second round picks seem to produce comparable results regardless of draft position.

    Finally, here's what's happening from the 3rd round on:

    Draft Position, A1 Count, A2 Count, B Count, C Count, D Count

    61+, 0, 3, 20, 59, 234

    This suggests that, once you leave the 1st round, the probability of finding an A talent is low and stays about the same as you move down the draft. It's a pure lottery. The list includes Kucherov at 58, Gaudreau at 104, Benn at 129, and Stone at 178. You find fewer NHL forwards lower in the draft but the forwards you find there seem to follow the same distribution of offensive talent as what you manage to get in the second round.

  177. stephen sheps says:

    bendelson: *crickets*

    I really should have known a Jaleel White joke would be too highbrow for the pseudo-intellectual Lowetide crowd.

    sorry, Bendelson. The day got away from me. This was definitely up to your usual standard of excellence, I just wasn’t able to get back to the blog until now.

  178. Georgexs says:

    From the above, the 2nd round has produced 39 forwards with above replacement level offense. That’s 39 forwards in 18 drafts (Yes, the number could be higher as the more recent drafted forwards appear and win jobs in the league. I don’t believe it could be too much higher though.)

    This means, on average, there are roughly 2 above replacement offense forwards in each second round draft class and that, just by pure randomness, teams could expect to find such a 2nd round forward ONCE EVERY 15 DRAFTS!

    What the actual F??!! Did I screw up here? That seems inconceivable.

  179. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    Love Pilsner Urquell.

    Only ever had it in the can.

    Best draft beer I ever had was Bitberger in Hanover.

    Un-freaking-real

    Glovjuice,

    Many great beer related posts both form this morning and this evening.

    The unfiltered Urquell I had was at a ruinbar in Budapest. The cask came in maybe a few hours before, fresh from the brewery. But it’s still not the best Czech beer I’ve ever had. The best in the world is from the Strahov Monastery in Prague, right behind the castle. Incredible stuff.

    Kinger – you’re right, LCBO is a joke, but a necessary evil for wine and spirits that aren’t scotch, but I can’t reveal my scotch supplier publicly.

  180. Georgexs says:

    godot10: Connor McDavid
    Sidney Crosby
    Evgeni Malkin
    Patrick Kane
    Alex Ovechkin
    Steven Stamkos
    Ilya Kovalchuk

    I had to cheat on Kovalchuk.Picked Tavares first.

    Nicely done.

  181. Ryan says:

    Wilde:
    Ryan,

    this is a level & concise take on the Faulk situation

    Thanks.

    I forgot to add that Faulk is an offensive dman to which there’s always a market. His cap hit is only 4.8m and GM’s always pay for offense from their d. Ricki cover your ears. Schultz in comparison has a cap hit of 5.5m. Let’s not forget that Faulk scored over 15 goals over the past three prior seasons—excluding last season. That would be good for fourth on the Oilers last season.

    On another note, prior to last season where he was overweight and immobile, I watched Faulk often. As I have previously mentioned, he looked like a poor man’s Doughty. Not nearly as good defensively, but very similar on the attack with a great first pass and quick release on his shot.

    Sekera can’t be replaced. His cap space will sit vacant on LTIR. Next season, daylight is burning not only on the McDavid contract, but McDavid himself. Do Something Chia Pete.

  182. Georgexs says:

    godot10: Barzal is too small a sample size to make much of at this point.He got to play behind Tavares, and got to play with Eberle.And with a coach who let him play.

    You’re right. He could fall back like Ebs did from his second season 0.97. That would be a more likely outcome given Barzal’s draft position. But he did only play in 2 games before last season. A 1 PPG first season is pretty rare. Hmm… can’t wait to see how he does this year!

  183. Ryan says:

    Georgexs: You’re right. He could fall back like Ebs did from his second season 0.97. That would be a more likely outcome given Barzal’s draft position. But he did only play in 2 games before last season. A 1 PPG first season is pretty rare. Hmm… can’t wait to see how he does this year!

    How funny is it that the GM who parlayed one Griffin Reinhart and one Ryan Strome for Mathew Barzal plus and Jordon Eberle was fired yet the GM who got fleeced in these transactions remains employed.

    #becauseOilers

  184. €√¥£€^$ says:

    I spent a good part of the evening watching Jerabek video. In the few games I watched vs teams such as TB, Edm, Ott & Bos he looked really good in his own zone. Very good & quick stick, doesn’t give offensive players much room at all. None of the GA while he was on the ice in the games I viewed had anything to do with him. He doesn’t move up the ice at all like Auvitu, but he looks like a solid bet as a depth defender who could be moved up in a pinch.

    Gravel also is a good defender, good footspeed and a good stick. Hopefully he is healthy and we see his potential this year, we need some breaks to our way with this blueline for a change.

    I was really excited about Auvitu going into last season, unfortunately his coach didn’t see what he had in 81. I think the coach will like what he sees in these players and I am really doubting we see very much of Bouchard in the NHL this season, if at all. Both the coach and GM have too much at stake and Bouchard or Bear for that matter, simply can’t defend at the NHL level (I posted these observations a few weeks prior to the World Jr Showcase fwiw).

    I do expect we will see big improvements in both of the B’s “D” next year.

  185. OilSlickster says:

    Bling,

    Another thing people don’t seem to be taking into account, is the very limited amount of time he has spent on North American ice.

  186. Wilde says:

    Georgexs: B: strong 1st or 2nd line players, about 5 are drafted every year

    I’m pocketing this number, it’s a dream killer.

    godot10:

    Barzal is too small a sample size to make much of at this point. He got to play behind Tavares, and got to play with Eberle. And with a coach who let him play.

    I think the only way Barzal scores less is if he has an off year in shooting percentages, or the top lines forwards run a train on the Islanders when he’s on the ice. He’s pretty bad on reads defensively so far.

    People mention he’ll get the top pairing defenders more, don’t think it’ll matter.

    You can’t stop what he does the way he does it. Transition machine. Wouldn’t be surprised if SportLogiq or whomever else microstatting has him sitting atop zone exits + entries with possession, or success percentages or both.

    He has 20 year career written all over him. Can’t touch him in the neutral zone, ridiculous skater and thinker, if they kept letting hand flashing go maybe that would have been it.

    Don’t think you’ll be able to talk about him normally among Oilers fans without it turning into something else, which is a shame because he’s quite unique very much a spectacle.

    Ryan: Thanks.

    You’re welcome

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    But Kinger, I /was/ calling you out

  187. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – This reminds me of Ricki when he says Fistric was #1 D.

    – I don’t care how you parse the numbers, Belov wasn’t a NHL D full-stop, and it wasn’t the coaches fault.If your chosen model suggests that Belov was a top-4 d, your numbers are wrong.

    – You’ve parsed the numbers, got something that is what is but it isn’t what you think it is: small sample size variance noise, with stats that you think judge what constitutes a top-4 D, but doesn’t

    – he was a Euro Griff: big guy who didn’t use his body and couldn’t score, and got walked…

    * I should have prefaced this with “I’m a huge Belov fan” in order to sound really objective in my critique of your assessment

    Its just results Kinger.

    Not a model.

    Not “analytics”

    Just shot and goal results compared to his team mates in two different ways.

    I know they are “analytics” when you disagree with them.

    They’re just results.

    He played a lot of 2nd pairing when he played and these were his results.

    If I could change something in my original post it would be “2nd/3rd pairing” and not just 2nd.

    That’s all.

  188. Revolved says:

    I feel the need to agree with the sentiment of WG and others above with regard to ‘analytics’. Sports are fundamentally counting games since the score determines the winner, but regardless of what you’re counting they are just results. As pointed out, these are very helpful to us that cannot remember every moment of a hockey game.

    The analysis of these numbers can be good or not, useful or not, but the counting itself is just a description of what happend. Can what happens before predict the future? Well, I’m hoping VOR weighs in on that and we can find a better way forward.

  189. Ryan says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – This reminds me of Ricki when he says Fistric was #1 D.

    – he was a Euro Griff: big guy who didn’t use his body and couldn’t score, and got walked…

    Love the Euro Griff analogy. Had a good laugh at that.

    Belov was much better at transitioning the puck.

  190. drglen says:

    Here’s a thought, probably a silly one but, would there be any merit in converting a defenseman to a forward in Dustin Byfuglien kind of way? What about Bear as a 4th line forward, slot him in on defense on the powerplay.

  191. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t see anything about Bear’s skill set that would lead to him being an effective 4th liner.

  192. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Its just results Kinger.

    Not a model.

    Not “analytics”

    Just shot and goal results compared to his team mates in two different ways.

    I know they are “analytics” when you disagree with them.

    They’re just results.

    He played a lot of 2nd pairing when he played and these were his results.

    If I could change something in my original post it would be “2nd/3rd pairing” and not just 2nd.

    That’s all.

    – Yes they are the results. But if you look at what happened when 5 guys were on the ice, and a small sample size, and use a bunch of measure and proclaim he was a top-4 D, then your reliance on that data/stats /analystics/ model merits some push-back

    – If you said that Belov was in the range of Gravel and Jerabek this year (who both have some indication that they might be able to play in the NHL in a lower pairing) and if you squint really hard, and cross your fingers and see them good, maybe in a pinch on a bad team for a short time, with the right puck-luck they could fit a top-4 D depending on what the other 4 guys do on the ice and the goalie, and who they are playing against.

    – But you proclaimed he was a 2nd paring D, chose figures that you believe support this notion, and on those figures was confident enough to conclude therefore that it wasnt’ his fault but the coaches.

    – That no one in the league before or after signed him up, and that he looked quite awful and got walked and didn’t score and didn’t defend well.

    – And I like Belov, for real, because he said “I don’t want to play for that coach again”

    – I just don’t agree with your assessement: Belov wasn’t very good IMO

    * and for good measure, if the use of a rel, isn’t a stat, and you don’t consider it an analytical tool,and if you aggregate a bunch of them if that isn’t a “model”, then I’m baffled with your point

    – Which brings me back to another technique that is often used that bothers me.

    – I disagreed with you that Belov is a good D. Rather than address that, you poked into the sematics of the language I used rather than the substance of the argument. I have no idea what
    you mean when you say “I know they are analytics when you disagree with them”.

    – This is a common tactic: poke the person, not the subject when one disagrees with their opinion, its up there with “with all due respect”, or “I’m a fan”

  193. Ryan says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – What really matters is that the Oilers are one man short of having four top four d to start next year.

    – What’s worse is that one one of our top four d is injury prone…. Klefbom can transition the puck, but can’t protect the Ricki Box. Larsson can protect the Ricki box, but can’t transition the puck very well. Nurse can protect the Ricki box, but can only transition the puck by skating it up the ice.

    – If Klefbom gets injured… we have exactly zero top four d who can make a first pass.

    – Russell will likely play a fair amount of top four minutes next season… potentially on the right side…

  194. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Ryan,

    – yup. Chia has got big balls or can’t get a deal done or kidding himself if this is the season long D make up.

  195. Darth Tu says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I realise we’re onto a new day and a new blog – but wow, I’m in total agreement. I know some of the people here have a real hate on for Chia, but Bergevin has to take the biscuit in terms of bad GM decisions over the last few years. 5 years of Alzner…

    Personally I don’t want to see Nurse leave, but if the Habs can grab him for a second round draft pick I think they’d at least be thinking about putting in an offer.

  196. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Lots to unpack here so I’ll do it one point at a time:

    – Yes they are the results. But if you look at what happened when 5 guys were on the ice, and a small sample size, and use a bunch of measure and proclaim he was a top-4 D, then your reliance on that data/stats /analystics/ model merits some push-back

    That’s not what I did.

    Your assumption is wrong.

    I looked at who he played with and I know (as do you) where they played in the line up.

    Here’s his:
    With TOI With
    Justin Schultz 215.2 (2nd pair)
    Philip Larsen 133.1 (3rd pair)
    Jeff Petry 131.2 (1st pair)
    Nick Schultz 123.0 (2nd pair)
    Mark Fraser 68.4 (3rd pair)
    Corey Potter 61.6 (3rd pair)

    So he played up and down the roster, but characterizing it as “2nd pair” is pretty accurate. I said later 2nd/3rd might be closer.

    Funnily enough his best minutes were with Petry in the 1st pair.

    I look at who he played with to figure out his spot in the line up.

    I didn’t mention that in the first post so your criticism is fair while at the same time being erroneous.


    – If you said that Belov was in the range of Gravel and Jerabek this year (who both have some indication that they might be able to play in the NHL in a lower pairing) and if you squint really hard, and cross your fingers and see them good, maybe in a pinch on a bad team for a short time, with the right puck-luck they could fit a top-4 D depending on what the other 4 guys do on the ice and the goalie, and who they are playing against.

    I don’t understand this.

    Belov was a highly rated KHL top pairing Dman with 378 KHL gp when he came over. Played in the top pair and 2nd pair and had decent results. Good results on 3rd pair too when not with Larsen.

    Jerabek was a 1st team all star in the KHL 2 years ago and good results when he played 2nd pair for MTL. Decent results in 3rd pairing

    Gravel has played 149 AHL games and 70 NHL games. His TOI in the NHL has exclusively been 3rd pair (McNabb, Greene, Folin) except for ~100 minutes with Doughty where Doughty’s results dropped significantly (natch) so we can’t say he did well in those minutes.

    You might like to just lump players together, but I like to look at what they did and who they did it with and what the context is.

    I think there is enough evidence to find some difference, especially when talking about NHL results


    – But you proclaimed he was a 2nd paring D, chose figures that you believe support this notion, and on those figures was confident enough to conclude therefore that it wasnt’ his fault but the coaches.

    I showed who he played his TOI with and where they were slotted that year above but not in my original post.

    I don’t type out all the stuff I look at, maybe I should.

    – That no one in the league before or after signed him up, and that he looked quite awful and got walked and didn’t score and didn’t defend well.

    This doesn’t really mean anything.

    He didn’t enjoy his time in the NHL and went back to a good career in the KHL.

    Belov signed with St. Petersburg April 19th, 6 days after the NHL season ended in 2014.

    That’s not a player who tried and couldn’t find another NHL contract, that’s a player that went home.

    Source: https://www.nhltraderumor.com/anton-belov-returns-to-the-khl/


    – I just don’t agree with your assessement: Belov wasn’t very good IMO

    You’re allowed your opinion.

    Its just grating that your reasons why add up to”because I said so” and you provide no evidence other than anecdotes on things that happened 4 years ago.


    * and for good measure, if the use of a rel, isn’t a stat, and you don’t consider it an analytical tool,and if you aggregate a bunch of them if that isn’t a “model”, then I’m baffled with your point

    I’m not aggregating anything.

    I’m listing a number of his results so anyone reading can see the information and make up their own mind.

    That’s not modeling.


    – Which brings me back to another technique that is often used that bothers me.

    – I disagreed with you that Belov is a good D. Rather than address that, you poked into the sematics of the language I used rather than the substance of the argument. I have no idea what
    you mean when you say “I know they are analytics when you disagree with them”.

    – This is a common tactic: poke the person, not the subject when one disagrees with their opinion, its up there with “with all due respect”, or “I’m a fan”

    I agree that it was a bit unfair, but the history is what it is and I refer to it from time to time.

    I show shots and goals so those who say “shots don’t matter” can see goals because goals matter to everyone.

    Even if goals shouldn’t be used in samples this small (they shouldn’t) I’ll still show them because people want that information.

    You tend to start your lists with insults like: “This reminds me of Ricki when he says Fistric was #1 D.”

    That technique bothers me and colors everything you write.

    Occasional readers of the blog who I know have commented “that Kinger guy just posts to tell Lowetide or others that they’re wrong eh?”

    Even if you don’t your technique colors the results.

  197. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Darth Tu:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I realise we’re onto a new day and a new blog – but wow, I’m in total agreement. I know some of the people here have a real hate on for Chia, but Bergevin has to take the biscuit in terms of bad GM decisions over the last few years.5 years of Alzner…

    Personally I don’t want to see Nurse leave, but if the Habs can grab him for a second round draft pick I think they’d at least be thinking about putting in an offer.

    Alzner, Lucic, Russell

    Big long money for players who are not Top 4 D or Top 6 F at this point in their respective careers.

    Ouch.

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