Takin’ Care of Business

by Lowetide

Peter Chiarelli got back into the office before a few general managers and appears to be doing a fairly steady business two-thirds of the way through summer. After the Andrej Sekera news, he’s added Scottie Upshall on a PTO and (yesterday) signed intriguing defenseman Jakub Jerabek. He is from Plzen, Czech Republic a mere 30 hours from Anton Slepyshev’s hometown (Penza, Russia) so they probably know each other. Plzen is just five hours from Cologne, Leon Draisaitl’s hometown, so Jerabek and Draisaitl may have been on the same school bus as kids.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

JAKUB JERABEK

In a 31-team league, it’s impossible to know all the players the way Oilers fans know someone like (say) Brandon Davidson. A quick trip around the Al Gore last night fetched some interesting information on the newest Oiler.

  • Jonathan Willis:  For my money the best fit is probably (Jakub) Jerabek, a 27-year-old whose mobility and skill with the puck are the nearest match out there for what a healthy Sekera could have done. (The Athletic)
  • Marc Dumont: Jerabek played relatively well during his limited ice time with the Canadiens, especially when it came to controlling the play during his shifts. (The Athletic)
  • Marc Dumont: Jerabek (55.8 per cent) once again only trails Weber and Mete in this very important category (expected goals). Furthermore Jerabek faces a stiffer quality of competition and a lower quality of teammates than almost all the other defenceman on the team. (Montreal Gazette)

The NHL numbers (AHL too, for that matter) simply don’t give us enough to know anything for sure. He was in the Czech league since childhood (entered the league at 17, won the league’s best defenseman award at 24) and made his way to the KHL in 2016-17 (age 25).

  • 16-17 KHL 59gp, 5-29-34 21:47TOI, NHLE 38

Jerabek signed with Montreal during the 2017 offseason, spent some time in Laval (AHL), moved up to the Habs, then was dealt to Washington. Jerabek got into a couple of playoff games before being replaced by Christian Djoos.

What can we say about this signing? Looks like a solid bet from here, my guess is Jerabek is one of the seven best defensemen on the roster this morning. If nothing changes, he should be in Cologne in October.

NEW 50-MAN LIST

  • Praising Peter Chiarelli is met with the guns of Brixton in most parts but he has added some nice pieces on a shy budget all summer.
  • Tobias Rieder, Kyle Brodziak, Scottie Upshall and now Jakub Jerabek represent small and astute bets. Mikko Koskinen looks lavish in comparison, perhaps we’ll feel differently about that contract this time next year.
  • Jerabek’s presence squeezes everyone south of Klefbom-Larsson, Nurse-Benning and Russell. I think he might be the No. 6 defenseman with Andrej Sekera injured and Evan Bouchard not yet 20.
  • The Upshall signing makes everything more interesting.

TYLER BENSON’S PROGRESS

In writing my item for The Athletic prospect series I went back and looked at Benson’s progress since draft day. I didn’t have room in the article to post these two tables, thought I’d share them here (and please read the article, Benson is a fascinating prospect). Here are the forwards drafted between 31 and 39 in 2016, their 2016-17 scoring numbers and NHL equivalencies. This first table was posted in late summer 2017, and shows Alex DeBrincat is miles ahead of everyone else, with Adam Mascherin and Jordan Kyrou running second and third. Benson ranked No. 5 of seven players in NHLE:

DeBrincat continued to spike in year two, making the NHL and scoring 20+ goals for the Chicago Blackhawks. How did everyone else do in draft +2?

DeBrincat scored 52 points as an NHL rookie, so he’s out of orbit compared to the rest of the group. In the words of Hawk Harrelson, he gone! Jordan Kyrou took a step forward while Adam Mascherin ran in place. Yegor Korshkov and Benson also plateaued, while centers Asplund and Laberge look shy offensively in both seasons. I address Benson’s future in the article at The Athletic, interested to know if you agree with my findings.

DRAFT CHAT

Some great debate in yesterday’s thread about the draft. Thought I’d chime in here because by the time I get back to it we’ll be talking about arthritis or Natalie Wood. In my time looking at the draft (basically since 1973), there are things that we can say are universally true:

  • Impact or generational talents are gone by No. 3 overall.
  • Defensemen can fool you.
  • Goalies are impossible difficult to project but outstanding talents do show themselves early. It’s just that not all of the outstanding ones turn out and European leagues have such a wide range of quality you can miss someone easily.
  • When assessing a single draft, always feature offense prominently. Cheat for offense and then cheat again for offense, while also knowing that defensemen who get lots of power-play time may not receive any once they reach the NHL.
  • There is a randomness about draft success after about No. 15 overall that I’ve come to believe is luck. Some teams put themselves into position for good luck by drafting offense, but there’s a great deal of luck involved.
  • Teams are punishing players they perceive as being small and average in foot speed, possibly to their detriment. Mathew Barzal’s speed caused some teams to fade him and he punished them with extreme prejudice. I think Alex DeBrincat had that issue, too.
  • Someday a team is going to draft 7 DeBrincat/Barzal/Kailer Yamamoto’s, be called fools, and win a Stanley Cup five years later on the back of those talented youngsters.
  • If your team is drafting a CHL forward in the top 60 whose offense is well below a point-per-game, disregard the draft and hope the general manager can trade his way to success.
  • Drafting players from secondary leagues (BCHL, AJHL) is reasonable by the middle of the second round, but the CHL high-end kids should be taken before a team ranges outside the big talent pools.
  • The USHL has a lot of mystery about it, teams who don’t scout heavily/have contacts/bird dogs are at a huge disadvantage.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy, fun morning beginning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Marc Dumont, TSN690 Montreal and The Athletic. Edmonton’s new defensemen, how good is he, and is it Jacob or Yacob?
  • Michael Rothstein, ESPN reporter on the Detroit Lions. Is this the season the Lions win 12 games?
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. CFL getting interesting, NHL waking up from summer in the sun.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

198 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
198 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Woodguy v2.0

Darth Tu:
Woodguy v2.0,

I realise we’re onto a new day and a new blog – but wow, I’m in total agreement. I know some of the people here have a real hate on for Chia, but Bergevin has to take the biscuit in terms of bad GM decisions over the last few years.5 years of Alzner…

Personally I don’t want to see Nurse leave, but if the Habs can grab him for a second round draft pick I think they’d at least be thinking about putting in an offer.

Alzner, Lucic, Russell

Big long money for players who are not Top 4 D or Top 6 F at this point in their respective careers.

Ouch.

Woodguy v2.0

Kinger_Oil.redux,

Lots to unpack here so I’ll do it one point at a time:

– Yes they are the results. But if you look at what happened when 5 guys were on the ice, and a small sample size, and use a bunch of measure and proclaim he was a top-4 D, then your reliance on that data/stats /analystics/ model merits some push-back

That’s not what I did.

Your assumption is wrong.

I looked at who he played with and I know (as do you) where they played in the line up.

Here’s his:
With TOI With
Justin Schultz 215.2 (2nd pair)
Philip Larsen 133.1 (3rd pair)
Jeff Petry 131.2 (1st pair)
Nick Schultz 123.0 (2nd pair)
Mark Fraser 68.4 (3rd pair)
Corey Potter 61.6 (3rd pair)

So he played up and down the roster, but characterizing it as “2nd pair” is pretty accurate. I said later 2nd/3rd might be closer.

Funnily enough his best minutes were with Petry in the 1st pair.

I look at who he played with to figure out his spot in the line up.

I didn’t mention that in the first post so your criticism is fair while at the same time being erroneous.


– If you said that Belov was in the range of Gravel and Jerabek this year (who both have some indication that they might be able to play in the NHL in a lower pairing) and if you squint really hard, and cross your fingers and see them good, maybe in a pinch on a bad team for a short time, with the right puck-luck they could fit a top-4 D depending on what the other 4 guys do on the ice and the goalie, and who they are playing against.

I don’t understand this.

Belov was a highly rated KHL top pairing Dman with 378 KHL gp when he came over. Played in the top pair and 2nd pair and had decent results. Good results on 3rd pair too when not with Larsen.

Jerabek was a 1st team all star in the KHL 2 years ago and good results when he played 2nd pair for MTL. Decent results in 3rd pairing

Gravel has played 149 AHL games and 70 NHL games. His TOI in the NHL has exclusively been 3rd pair (McNabb, Greene, Folin) except for ~100 minutes with Doughty where Doughty’s results dropped significantly (natch) so we can’t say he did well in those minutes.

You might like to just lump players together, but I like to look at what they did and who they did it with and what the context is.

I think there is enough evidence to find some difference, especially when talking about NHL results


– But you proclaimed he was a 2nd paring D, chose figures that you believe support this notion, and on those figures was confident enough to conclude therefore that it wasnt’ his fault but the coaches.

I showed who he played his TOI with and where they were slotted that year above but not in my original post.

I don’t type out all the stuff I look at, maybe I should.

– That no one in the league before or after signed him up, and that he looked quite awful and got walked and didn’t score and didn’t defend well.

This doesn’t really mean anything.

He didn’t enjoy his time in the NHL and went back to a good career in the KHL.

Belov signed with St. Petersburg April 19th, 6 days after the NHL season ended in 2014.

That’s not a player who tried and couldn’t find another NHL contract, that’s a player that went home.

Source: https://www.nhltraderumor.com/anton-belov-returns-to-the-khl/


– I just don’t agree with your assessement: Belov wasn’t very good IMO

You’re allowed your opinion.

Its just grating that your reasons why add up to”because I said so” and you provide no evidence other than anecdotes on things that happened 4 years ago.


* and for good measure, if the use of a rel, isn’t a stat, and you don’t consider it an analytical tool,and if you aggregate a bunch of them if that isn’t a “model”, then I’m baffled with your point

I’m not aggregating anything.

I’m listing a number of his results so anyone reading can see the information and make up their own mind.

That’s not modeling.


– Which brings me back to another technique that is often used that bothers me.

– I disagreed with you that Belov is a good D. Rather than address that, you poked into the sematics of the language I used rather than the substance of the argument. I have no idea what
you mean when you say “I know they are analytics when you disagree with them”.

– This is a common tactic: poke the person, not the subject when one disagrees with their opinion, its up there with “with all due respect”, or “I’m a fan”

I agree that it was a bit unfair, but the history is what it is and I refer to it from time to time.

I show shots and goals so those who say “shots don’t matter” can see goals because goals matter to everyone.

Even if goals shouldn’t be used in samples this small (they shouldn’t) I’ll still show them because people want that information.

You tend to start your lists with insults like: “This reminds me of Ricki when he says Fistric was #1 D.”

That technique bothers me and colors everything you write.

Occasional readers of the blog who I know have commented “that Kinger guy just posts to tell Lowetide or others that they’re wrong eh?”

Even if you don’t your technique colors the results.

Darth Tu

Woodguy v2.0,

I realise we’re onto a new day and a new blog – but wow, I’m in total agreement. I know some of the people here have a real hate on for Chia, but Bergevin has to take the biscuit in terms of bad GM decisions over the last few years. 5 years of Alzner…

Personally I don’t want to see Nurse leave, but if the Habs can grab him for a second round draft pick I think they’d at least be thinking about putting in an offer.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Ryan,

– yup. Chia has got big balls or can’t get a deal done or kidding himself if this is the season long D make up.

Ryan

Kinger_Oil.redux,

– What really matters is that the Oilers are one man short of having four top four d to start next year.

– What’s worse is that one one of our top four d is injury prone…. Klefbom can transition the puck, but can’t protect the Ricki Box. Larsson can protect the Ricki box, but can’t transition the puck very well. Nurse can protect the Ricki box, but can only transition the puck by skating it up the ice.

– If Klefbom gets injured… we have exactly zero top four d who can make a first pass.

– Russell will likely play a fair amount of top four minutes next season… potentially on the right side…

Kinger_Oil.redux

Woodguy v2.0: Its just results Kinger.

Not a model.

Not “analytics”

Just shot and goal results compared to his team mates in two different ways.

I know they are “analytics” when you disagree with them.

They’re just results.

He played a lot of 2nd pairing when he played and these were his results.

If I could change something in my original post it would be “2nd/3rd pairing” and not just 2nd.

That’s all.

– Yes they are the results. But if you look at what happened when 5 guys were on the ice, and a small sample size, and use a bunch of measure and proclaim he was a top-4 D, then your reliance on that data/stats /analystics/ model merits some push-back

– If you said that Belov was in the range of Gravel and Jerabek this year (who both have some indication that they might be able to play in the NHL in a lower pairing) and if you squint really hard, and cross your fingers and see them good, maybe in a pinch on a bad team for a short time, with the right puck-luck they could fit a top-4 D depending on what the other 4 guys do on the ice and the goalie, and who they are playing against.

– But you proclaimed he was a 2nd paring D, chose figures that you believe support this notion, and on those figures was confident enough to conclude therefore that it wasnt’ his fault but the coaches.

– That no one in the league before or after signed him up, and that he looked quite awful and got walked and didn’t score and didn’t defend well.

– And I like Belov, for real, because he said “I don’t want to play for that coach again”

– I just don’t agree with your assessement: Belov wasn’t very good IMO

* and for good measure, if the use of a rel, isn’t a stat, and you don’t consider it an analytical tool,and if you aggregate a bunch of them if that isn’t a “model”, then I’m baffled with your point

– Which brings me back to another technique that is often used that bothers me.

– I disagreed with you that Belov is a good D. Rather than address that, you poked into the sematics of the language I used rather than the substance of the argument. I have no idea what
you mean when you say “I know they are analytics when you disagree with them”.

– This is a common tactic: poke the person, not the subject when one disagrees with their opinion, its up there with “with all due respect”, or “I’m a fan”

OriginalPouzar

I don’t see anything about Bear’s skill set that would lead to him being an effective 4th liner.

drglen

Here’s a thought, probably a silly one but, would there be any merit in converting a defenseman to a forward in Dustin Byfuglien kind of way? What about Bear as a 4th line forward, slot him in on defense on the powerplay.

Ryan

Kinger_Oil.redux: – This reminds me of Ricki when he says Fistric was #1 D.

– he was a Euro Griff: big guy who didn’t use his body and couldn’t score, and got walked…

Love the Euro Griff analogy. Had a good laugh at that.

Belov was much better at transitioning the puck.

Revolved

I feel the need to agree with the sentiment of WG and others above with regard to ‘analytics’. Sports are fundamentally counting games since the score determines the winner, but regardless of what you’re counting they are just results. As pointed out, these are very helpful to us that cannot remember every moment of a hockey game.

The analysis of these numbers can be good or not, useful or not, but the counting itself is just a description of what happend. Can what happens before predict the future? Well, I’m hoping VOR weighs in on that and we can find a better way forward.

Woodguy v2.0

Kinger_Oil.redux: – This reminds me of Ricki when he says Fistric was #1 D.

– I don’t care how you parse the numbers, Belov wasn’t a NHL D full-stop, and it wasn’t the coaches fault.If your chosen model suggests that Belov was a top-4 d, your numbers are wrong.

– You’ve parsed the numbers, got something that is what is but it isn’t what you think it is: small sample size variance noise, with stats that you think judge what constitutes a top-4 D, but doesn’t

– he was a Euro Griff: big guy who didn’t use his body and couldn’t score, and got walked…

* I should have prefaced this with “I’m a huge Belov fan” in order to sound really objective in my critique of your assessment

Its just results Kinger.

Not a model.

Not “analytics”

Just shot and goal results compared to his team mates in two different ways.

I know they are “analytics” when you disagree with them.

They’re just results.

He played a lot of 2nd pairing when he played and these were his results.

If I could change something in my original post it would be “2nd/3rd pairing” and not just 2nd.

That’s all.

Wilde

Georgexs: B: strong 1st or 2nd line players, about 5 are drafted every year

I’m pocketing this number, it’s a dream killer.

godot10:

Barzal is too small a sample size to make much of at this point. He got to play behind Tavares, and got to play with Eberle. And with a coach who let him play.

I think the only way Barzal scores less is if he has an off year in shooting percentages, or the top lines forwards run a train on the Islanders when he’s on the ice. He’s pretty bad on reads defensively so far.

People mention he’ll get the top pairing defenders more, don’t think it’ll matter.

You can’t stop what he does the way he does it. Transition machine. Wouldn’t be surprised if SportLogiq or whomever else microstatting has him sitting atop zone exits + entries with possession, or success percentages or both.

He has 20 year career written all over him. Can’t touch him in the neutral zone, ridiculous skater and thinker, if they kept letting hand flashing go maybe that would have been it.

Don’t think you’ll be able to talk about him normally among Oilers fans without it turning into something else, which is a shame because he’s quite unique very much a spectacle.

Ryan: Thanks.

You’re welcome

Kinger_Oil.redux,

But Kinger, I /was/ calling you out

Leon McMesstzky

Bling,

Another thing people don’t seem to be taking into account, is the very limited amount of time he has spent on North American ice.

€√¥£€^$

I spent a good part of the evening watching Jerabek video. In the few games I watched vs teams such as TB, Edm, Ott & Bos he looked really good in his own zone. Very good & quick stick, doesn’t give offensive players much room at all. None of the GA while he was on the ice in the games I viewed had anything to do with him. He doesn’t move up the ice at all like Auvitu, but he looks like a solid bet as a depth defender who could be moved up in a pinch.

Gravel also is a good defender, good footspeed and a good stick. Hopefully he is healthy and we see his potential this year, we need some breaks to our way with this blueline for a change.

I was really excited about Auvitu going into last season, unfortunately his coach didn’t see what he had in 81. I think the coach will like what he sees in these players and I am really doubting we see very much of Bouchard in the NHL this season, if at all. Both the coach and GM have too much at stake and Bouchard or Bear for that matter, simply can’t defend at the NHL level (I posted these observations a few weeks prior to the World Jr Showcase fwiw).

I do expect we will see big improvements in both of the B’s “D” next year.

Ryan

Georgexs: You’re right. He could fall back like Ebs did from his second season 0.97. That would be a more likely outcome given Barzal’s draft position. But he did only play in 2 games before last season. A 1 PPG first season is pretty rare. Hmm… can’t wait to see how he does this year!

How funny is it that the GM who parlayed one Griffin Reinhart and one Ryan Strome for Mathew Barzal plus and Jordon Eberle was fired yet the GM who got fleeced in these transactions remains employed.

#becauseOilers

Georgexs

godot10: Barzal is too small a sample size to make much of at this point.He got to play behind Tavares, and got to play with Eberle.And with a coach who let him play.

You’re right. He could fall back like Ebs did from his second season 0.97. That would be a more likely outcome given Barzal’s draft position. But he did only play in 2 games before last season. A 1 PPG first season is pretty rare. Hmm… can’t wait to see how he does this year!

Ryan

Wilde:
Ryan,

this is a level & concise take on the Faulk situation

Thanks.

I forgot to add that Faulk is an offensive dman to which there’s always a market. His cap hit is only 4.8m and GM’s always pay for offense from their d. Ricki cover your ears. Schultz in comparison has a cap hit of 5.5m. Let’s not forget that Faulk scored over 15 goals over the past three prior seasons—excluding last season. That would be good for fourth on the Oilers last season.

On another note, prior to last season where he was overweight and immobile, I watched Faulk often. As I have previously mentioned, he looked like a poor man’s Doughty. Not nearly as good defensively, but very similar on the attack with a great first pass and quick release on his shot.

Sekera can’t be replaced. His cap space will sit vacant on LTIR. Next season, daylight is burning not only on the McDavid contract, but McDavid himself. Do Something Chia Pete.

Georgexs

godot10: Connor McDavid
Sidney Crosby
Evgeni Malkin
Patrick Kane
Alex Ovechkin
Steven Stamkos
Ilya Kovalchuk

I had to cheat on Kovalchuk.Picked Tavares first.

Nicely done.

stephen sheps

Woodguy v2.0:

Love Pilsner Urquell.

Only ever had it in the can.

Best draft beer I ever had was Bitberger in Hanover.

Un-freaking-real

Glovjuice,

Many great beer related posts both form this morning and this evening.

The unfiltered Urquell I had was at a ruinbar in Budapest. The cask came in maybe a few hours before, fresh from the brewery. But it’s still not the best Czech beer I’ve ever had. The best in the world is from the Strahov Monastery in Prague, right behind the castle. Incredible stuff.

Kinger – you’re right, LCBO is a joke, but a necessary evil for wine and spirits that aren’t scotch, but I can’t reveal my scotch supplier publicly.

Georgexs

From the above, the 2nd round has produced 39 forwards with above replacement level offense. That’s 39 forwards in 18 drafts (Yes, the number could be higher as the more recent drafted forwards appear and win jobs in the league. I don’t believe it could be too much higher though.)

This means, on average, there are roughly 2 above replacement offense forwards in each second round draft class and that, just by pure randomness, teams could expect to find such a 2nd round forward ONCE EVERY 15 DRAFTS!

What the actual F??!! Did I screw up here? That seems inconceivable.

stephen sheps

bendelson: *crickets*

I really should have known a Jaleel White joke would be too highbrow for the pseudo-intellectual Lowetide crowd.

sorry, Bendelson. The day got away from me. This was definitely up to your usual standard of excellence, I just wasn’t able to get back to the blog until now.

Georgexs

Georgexs:
So 1 or more points per game is rarefied air. It’s below that mark that things get interesting.

Let’s look at forwards drafted since 2000 who have played at least 40 games in the NHL.

Here’s a breakdown of player counts for different PPG ranges:

8, >= 1.0
24, [0.8 to 1.0)
90, [0.6 to 0.8)
161, [0.4 to 0.6)
421, < 0.4

BRB

Lets’ give the PPG ranges from above the following labels:

A1: 8, >= 1.0
A2: 24, [0.8, 1.0)
B: 90, [0.6, 0.8)
C: 161, [0.4, 0.6)
D: 421, < 0.4

A1, A2: rare offensive talents, 1 or 2 are drafted every year

B: strong 1st or 2nd line players, about 5 are drafted every year

C: score enough to have a career players, 3rd line types, sometimes jumping up in the lineup, but rarely hanging on; around 10 are drafted every year

D: role players; replacement level offense

Now let's cross tabulate player counts by PPG labels and draft position for first round picks. (Forwards selected from 2000 to 2017 who have played at least 40 games.)

Draft Position, A1 Count, A2 Count, B Count, C Count, D Count

1-10, 7, 14, 34, 30, 24

11-20, 1, 3, 12, 22, 42

21-30, 0, 3, 12, 24, 36

This fits with what I've shown the past couple of days. The first 10 picks contain a disproportionate amount of offensive talent in comparison to the remaining picks. The cream rises to the top.

But the remaining first round picks look similar in the type of players and results that are selected (or produced). We don't see a dropoff in the likelihood of finding offensive talent as we move from the middle 10 picks to the bottom 10 picks.

Now let's have a look at the picks from the second round:

Draft Position, A1 Count, A2 Count, B Count, C Count, D Count

31-40, 0, 0, 6, 5, 27

41-50, 0, 0, 3, 8, 30

51-60, 0, 1, 3, 13, 28

Only 1 second round forward selection has emerged as an A talent. There are a few B's and C's and mostly D's. The first 10 picks produce more B players but fewer C and D players. Overall though, draft position in the second round doesn't seem to strongly predict success in finding offensive talent. Second round picks seem to produce comparable results regardless of draft position.

Finally, here's what's happening from the 3rd round on:

Draft Position, A1 Count, A2 Count, B Count, C Count, D Count

61+, 0, 3, 20, 59, 234

This suggests that, once you leave the 1st round, the probability of finding an A talent is low and stays about the same as you move down the draft. It's a pure lottery. The list includes Kucherov at 58, Gaudreau at 104, Benn at 129, and Stone at 178. You find fewer NHL forwards lower in the draft but the forwards you find there seem to follow the same distribution of offensive talent as what you manage to get in the second round.

jtblack

Bling,

Been to Montreal once for a hockey trip (PHI, NYI, NYR, MTL).

MTL as a city is Amazing. Hockey Town. EPIC

Bling

leadfarmer,

I don’t know too much about Quebec, but for Montreal:

1 – Atwater Cocktail Club and/or Big in Japan for drinks. ACC is a bit louder, but has amazing drinks. Also consider the Cloak Room.

2 – Foiegwa is an awesome restaurant. Fried chicken is great and so is the truffle spaghetti. Also the foie gras. Great cocktails as well. Others: Damas, Milos, Pied du Couchon and Park Sushi.

3 – Cafe Olimpico has IMO the city’s best latté. It’s in Mile End, which is a cool area to walk around in.

4 – Mont Royal! Walk to the top! Tam Tams is on Sunday.
5 – Bike Ride through the city. So many dedicated bike paths all over.

6 – Musee de Beaux Arts

7 – Beer. Dieu du Ciel! I believe one of their beers made it to the list of world’s best beers. There are also a ton of microbrew places on St Denis, just south of Sherbrooke.

8 – Brunch. Sparrow OR Reservoir; the latter is probably my fav microbrew spot in the city.

9 – Poutine. La Banquise is the famous spot.

10 – Schwarz’s for smoked meat, Fairmont or St Viateur for Montreal bagels.

You can’t go wrong in Montreal!

Bling

Woodguy v2.0,

No worries at all, it’s a good thing that we’re in agreement!

Bos8

I’m partial to Paulaner Weissbier, no excuses.

HT Joe

leadfarmer:
I’m heading to Montreal and Quebec City in a week.I was wondering if anyone has any recommendations.Food.Things to see.Drinks.The usual.
Thanks all

I visited Quebec City a couple of weeks ago, and It was lovely… the old town and surrounding stone wall was very cool. When you walk to Chateau Frontenac, take the funicular down the hill.

If you are into life’s nerdier pleasures (board games, collectibles, puzzles, video games, comics, etc.), you have never seen a place like this: https://imaginaire.com. It is the size of the old HMV in West Edmonton Mall.

(I figure everyone else will point out the cooler attractions)

*EDIT* Imaginaire’s stock included hockey collectables. Scaled replicas of Sam Gagner and Sheldon Souray were in the discount section. 🙁

Have fun!

godot10

godot10: Connor McDavid
Sidney Crosby
Evgeni Malkin
Patrick Kane
Alex Ovechkin
Steven Stamkos
Ilya Kovalchuk

I had to cheat on Kovalchuk.Picked Tavares first.

Barzal is too small a sample size to make much of at this point. He got to play behind Tavares, and got to play with Eberle. And with a coach who let him play.

godot10

godot10: It was Barzal all along!

Connor McDavid
Sidney Crosby
Evgeni Malkin
Patrick Kane
Alex Ovechkin
Steven Stamkos
Ilya Kovalchuk

I had to cheat on Kovalchuk. Picked Tavares first.

Georgexs

So 1 or more points per game is rarefied air. It’s below that mark that things get interesting.

Let’s look at forwards drafted since 2000 who have played at least 40 games in the NHL.

Here’s a breakdown of player counts for different PPG ranges:

8, >= 1.0
24, [0.8 to 1.0)
90, [0.6 to 0.8)
161, [0.4 to 0.6)
421, < 0.4

BRB

godot10

Georgexs:
LT: “Impact or generational talents are gone by No. 3 overall”

– 2398 forwards drafted from 2000 to 2017.

– 1017 (42%) have played a game in the NHL

– 704 (less than 1 in 3) have played 40 or more games

– 8 have played 40 or more games and scored 1 or more points per game

– 6 of the 8 were taken first overall and one of the 8 was taken second overall

Any guesses on the mystery man, and, for that matter, the other 7? Bonus to anyone who, unlike me, doesn’t have to check the Internet.

It was Barzal all along!

Georgexs

LT: “Impact or generational talents are gone by No. 3 overall”

– 2398 forwards drafted from 2000 to 2017.

– 1017 (42%) have played a game in the NHL

– 704 (less than 1 in 3) have played 40 or more games

– 8 have played 40 or more games and scored 1 or more points per game

– 6 of the 8 were taken first overall and one of the 8 was taken second overall

Any guesses on the mystery man, and, for that matter, the other 7? Bonus to anyone who, unlike me, doesn’t have to check the Internet.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Wilde: With all due respect Kinger, if anyone but Ricki reminds you of Ricki you may be overreacting

– No offence but I’m a fan of Ricki with all due-respect.

* I mean this with irony, as I’ve used the three phrases that don’t mean what they say, and are often used here and elsewhere to appear to be conciliatory and measured.

– Interestingly, in the UK “with all due respect” is actually used correctly. It isn’t a pretend way of appearing fair . You are actually calling the person out. It’s meant and understood to be an insult.

Scungilli Slushy

selective sam poll:
Woodguy v2.0: We would also accept “Lucic has scored at a 3rd line rate since he became an Oilers despite significant time with the best player on Earth”

While we’re at this couldn’t score with the best player on earth thing. Eberle and Hall didn’t have chemistry with Mcdavid either.Eberle couldn’t score with 97 and hopes were dashed in the land of “scoring is the hardest thing to do in the NHL”. So this is a much bigger failure given scoring is the only thing he can do.
Everyone here has their bias and most are amusing, ie
hunter – lowe/mact
Opouzar – malone
LT – franson, i swear he’s 50’s yrs old already but let’s give him a PTO
godot – mediocre coach
bag of pucks – loves yakupov
Just to name a few.But they lack the arrogance that you display though.To borrow from George last week, don’t be over confident about your conclusions with certain methodologies.It’s still debatable.
I can’t wait for VOR ‘s post on the analytics shortcomings.

I can`t agree with this. Of anybody who has been around longish here in a recognizable form, WG has been the most pliable and dinkish and apologetic poster.

Certainly the numbers are not right. Certainly WG has repeatedly said context is important.

I think that what Vor says about body development and neuro training would jump the pack for NHL teams. Tracking and that is just for the laypeople trying to get a leg up on future success. NHL coaches know what they see and want, the biggest trick is getting available players at their max potential.

That is what separates teams and makes champions.

Wilde

Ryan,

this is a level & concise take on the Faulk situation

frjohnk

selective sam poll: Eberle couldn’t score with 97

One of the bigger myths in Oiler Nation.

Eberle with McDavid
15-16 2.72pts/60
16-17 2.23pts/60

Lucic with McDavid
16-17 1.46pts/60
17-18 1.43pts/60

Draisaitl with McDavid
16-17 2.22pts/60
17-18 2.65pts/60

EDIT: This is a prime example on why there is value in analytics.

Analytics in their basic form such as pts/60 is basically the eyetest written down. Our eyes may see everything but our mind can only remember so much. And if our mind is made up on a certain player ( whether it be Lucic or Eberle or whoever) our minds can play tricks on us as we could say crazy stuff like “Eberle couldn’t score with McDavid”

Crazy huh?

Ryan

OriginalPouzar: Faulk

At the news of the Sekera injury, I had contemporaneously wrote about the putative Faulk trade first prefacing that Woodguy hates him…

Then I read a thread or two where Woodguy’s on board because it makes sense.

Now you’re here polemicizing a potential trade. Really, I wouldn’t worry too much because the Canes want what we don’t have to spare… scoring forwards.

“Disaster” is a bit of an overstatement. I don’t see even Pistol Pete trading any one of a 1st rounder, Yamamoto, or JP for two years of Faulk coming off a bad season.

Let’s start with the worst case scenario… Faulk’s done and the Oilers miraculously have six better defenseman this up coming season. They can’t move the last year of his contract and have to buy him out. The incur 833k cap hit next season (19-20) and two million after.

I doubt that would happen as he’s currently a 26-year-old right shot dman with no major health issues to date. I’ve seen more optimism on your behalf on the Oilers ability to move NMC Russell next season.

I would only trade for Faulk if the price was right—I.e. Carolina wants to save actual dollars, but even in an unlikely worst case scenario which would be bad for Katz financiallly, it wouldn’t be a disaster. Or at least it would certainly be more palatable than buying out Russell next season. (917k, 3.4m, 917k, 917k)

Scungilli Slushy

Woodguy v2.0: Goals don’t matter when your mind is made up eh?

Watching I thought Belov wasn`t bad. PC might get it a bit more.

But he was really in the NHL a stay at home type, and they tried to ram that square peg in a round hole. Repeatedly. Foot blown off.

Melvis

leadfarmer,

The women.

Wilde

Kinger_Oil.redux: This reminds me of Ricki

With all due respect Kinger, if anyone but Ricki reminds you of Ricki you may be overreacting

Scungilli Slushy

leadfarmer: lead

I`m heading to Quebec C also (not then, later in fall ) what to do in a day would be much appreciated!

Hankster

Woodguy v2.0: We would also accept “Lucic has scored at a 3rd line rate since he became an Oilers despite significant time with the best player on Earth”

While we’re at this couldn’t score with the best player on earth thing. Eberle and Hall didn’t have chemistry with Mcdavid either. Eberle couldn’t score with 97 and hopes were dashed in the land of “scoring is the hardest thing to do in the NHL”. So this is a much bigger failure given scoring is the only thing he can do.
Everyone here has their bias and most are amusing, ie
hunter – lowe/mact
Opouzar – malone
LT – franson, i swear he’s 50’s yrs old already but let’s give him a PTO
godot – mediocre coach
bag of pucks – loves yakupov
Just to name a few. But they lack the arrogance that you display though. To borrow from George last week, don’t be over confident about your conclusions with certain methodologies. It’s still debatable.
I can’t wait for VOR ‘s post on the analytics shortcomings.

godot10

Woodguy v2.0: If Nurse’s agent doesn’t squeeze Pete because of the situation then Nurse should fire his agent.

A hard negotiation doesn’t have to be acrimonious. “It’s not personal, Sonny. It’s strictly business.”

Kinger_Oil.redux

Woodguy v2.0: Anton Belov with EDM

2nd pair deployment
Rel CF% +2.6
RelT CF% +2.9
Rel GF +3.7
RelT GF% 3.5
RelT xGF% +4.6

The problem with Belov was the coach, not Belov.

Had slow feet in close but compensated well.

It’s *always* what you create minus what you give up.

– This reminds me of Ricki when he says Fistric was #1 D.

– I don’t care how you parse the numbers, Belov wasn’t a NHL D full-stop, and it wasn’t the coaches fault. If your chosen model suggests that Belov was a top-4 d, your numbers are wrong.

– You’ve parsed the numbers, got something that is what is but it isn’t what you think it is: small sample size variance noise, with stats that you think judge what constitutes a top-4 D, but doesn’t

– he was a Euro Griff: big guy who didn’t use his body and couldn’t score, and got walked…

* I should have prefaced this with “I’m a huge Belov fan” in order to sound really objective in my critique of your assessment

N64

Gerta Rauss: I think we’re in disagreement here-I could be overlooking something

Shouldn’t it be:
signing(s) up to 10% over the cap (or Sekera’s $5.5M whichever comes first )THEN Sekera to LTIR on the last day of training camp THEN game 1..?

What am I missing..?

The cap friendly example creates the cushion first and then applies it before the season starts. not sure if it’s that strict if all moves are pre-season.

Gerta Rauss

N64,Gerta Rauss: I think we’re in disagreement here-I could be overlooking something

Shouldn’t it be:
signing(s) up to 10% over the cap (or Sekera’s $5.5M whichever comes first )THEN Sekera to LTIR on the last day of training camp THEN game 1..?

What am I missing..?

Actually, nevermind, I think we’re arguing over the same side of the coin-it’s just a matter of when they want to place Sekera on LTIR

We’re in agreement they can make roster move(s) before game 1

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

Bos8: Urquel and Kupferberg Gold.Frantisek’s legacy in Edmonton.

That’s the old Bistro Praha owner.

Father Time, I am old.

Bistro Praha! Forgot about that place. I used to go there on Saturdays and meet my brother. This was in 1989. I was working on an undergrad about to go to Calgary medicine. He was a family doctor in Edmonton area.

Sadly he died unexpectedly 4 years ago. I still miss those lazy Saturday afternoons there.

Wilde

Woodguy v2.0: Right after they gave Alzner $4.625 x 5

Christ.

WSH wins The Cup after their defacto 1LD who bled chances and goals is gone.

Alzner is like Boumeester and Phaneuf.

Their NHL reputations haven’t matched their NHL play in 5+ years.

Re-reading WSH fans’ old Orlov v. Alzner debates is a guilty pleasure of mine

Gerta Rauss

N64: ltir THEN signing THEN game 1. Perfectly valid order.

I think we’re in disagreement here-I could be overlooking something

Shouldn’t it be:
signing(s) up to 10% over the cap (or Sekera’s $5.5M whichever comes first )THEN Sekera to LTIR on the last day of training camp THEN game 1..?

What am I missing..?

Woodguy v2.0

leadfarmer:
Woodguy v2.0,

Well when you get to take a shift off every few shifts and get subbed out on the back to back games you should have a little more to give.Like when you see an energy player hit everything in sight.You can do it for some minutes.Gets really hard to do for more minutes.Latestube has a comment about limiting his minutes made him more productive.More minutes hurts your recovery.More tired more mistakes harder to give it all each shift

14min is not 8 min

That’s also his blended number.

He played 2nd pair with Benn