Best of Intentions

I do believe the Edmonton Oilers start with the best of intentions. If you could find Peter Chiarelli at lunch today, and asked him about Evan Bouchard, my guess is that his sincere answer would include doing the right thing for the player’s long-term benefit. Edmonton as an organization doesn’t push these kids for the fun of it, but there’s always a big damned need the kids can solve.

  • Dallas Eakins on Leon Draisaitl: “He’s just a very, very young player and we don’t want to rush him. We don’t want to put the weight of the market, or high expectations on him. We want to just see where he’s at when he does get playing against NHL players.” Source

THE ATHLETIC

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LEON AND EVAN

Dallas Eakins had the best intentions for Leon Draisaitl, he absolutely did not want to push him into the league too soon. It’s easy to look at that first season for the big man and say he should have been sent out right away, but that would mean you forgot the sheer number of goal posts hit and yawning nets missed. He was unready, they should have sent him out, but he performed well during the period Edmonton was making the decision—and there was a major need.

I think the Oilers feel the same way about Evan Bouchard. They are determined to do the right thing by him. He is part of their future and they want him on the ice when Connor McDavid raises the Stanley Cup. What’s more, the team has other options, they can survive a year without him.

What happens next? The script is clear: The kid comes in and flattens competition among rookies, gains some confidence and scores a big goal early (probably on the power play in Bouchard’s case) in a preseason game. There will be a serious meeting in the big boardroom that holds a mighty table (sleeps 20!) and a prolonged back and forth. Maybe they’ll agree he should be sent out, and then someone will say “you know, I just go back to that goal he scored at orientation camp” and we’re off again. A leopard, ladies and men, does not change its spots.

I said this a year ago, when Kailer Yamamoto was posting crooked numbers and the preseason games were climbing. At some point you simply have to cut bait but the Oilers have a difficult time. The fast-track movement became an issue summer 2007 with Sam Gagner and has been an issue ever since. Peter Chiarelli doesn’t have a “are you sure that’s a good idea?” assistant, but he needs to get one post haste.

CONNOR’S WINGERS

  • This is via Natural Stat Trick and shows 5-on-5 scoring with Connor McDavid this past season.
  • Nuge will be an upgrade on Milan Lucic and right wing is wide open. Ty Rattie is the odds on favourite to get first chance but that can last like a snowflake in a hot place.
  • Ryan Strome scored well enough to get more time but it never came.
  • I’m of the opinion the RW depth chart will be Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto on the top two lines by 2020. I wonder if we see that changeover happen this winter?
  • The organization likes Drake Caggiula, he’ll probably see more time there than any of us are arguing for, and he did post 2.00+ a year ago.

WINGERS WITHOUT CONNOR

  • I’m fading Pontus Aberg like crazy, mostly due to the organization’s decision to commit to Drake Caggiula. That said, he performed well without Connor McDavid and that’s a positive. Aberg scored 3.71/60 5-on-5 with Leon Draisaitl a year ago.
  • Draisaitl without McDavid is still a damned good hockey player. I’d find a way to put Nugent-Hopkins on his wing.

Enstrom was mentioned as a possibility for the Oilers several times through the spring and into mid-summer. The season he would have gone back to Europe based on numbers was a year ago but his contract kept him here last season (where his numbers recovered, albeit in just 43 games). He found a way to play 719 NHL games, that’s a fine career.

VLADIMIR TKACHEV

Remember the time Edmonton almost signed a small forward out of training camp? And then it was discovered he was ineligible? Well, the player has thrived in the KHL and every few months his name comes up. Igor Eronko is reporting the Vegas Golden Knights have had discussions about the player signing next spring after his current deal expires. The NHLE from his most recent season (55) suggests he is worth pursuing.

Would you trade Leon Draisaitl (in a package) for a signed Erik Karlsson? Someone asked me that on the text line the other day, I said yes. There are risks, Karlsson is 28 now and has played in over 600 NHL games with some significant injuries. Thoughts?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning begins at 10, TSN1260. We’ll have some laughs and a rant or two, scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Erik Karlsson playing in Canada, Hayley Wickenheiser hockey executive, junior hockey returns to the north country.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Point-CounterPoint will be a series of ravings, hand signals and grunts as we discuss an unforgivable second half by the Eskimos in Hamilton last night.

NFL tour stops with the Chargers and we’ll read your texts and comments. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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137 Responses to "Best of Intentions"

  1. Wilde says:

    “but he needs to get one post haste.”

    Do you have a best friend?

    Is he smarter than you?

  2. PunjabiOil says:

    I believe the Tkachev’s you’re referring to are two different players, same name, 2 years apart.

    Oilers:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=163405

    Vegas interest:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=176813

  3. Wilde says:

    Also, I wrote a little of the State of the Leon Project, as a bonus to another game review:

    https://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2018/08/sss-part-9-on-state-of-series-mar-13-vs.html

  4. Wilde says:

    I’ve been trying to figure out how to get 93 and 29 together too.

    Biggest bugger in the whole thing?

    Not having an extra depth centre.

    Aberg – McDavid – Puljujarvi

    Nuge – Draisaitl – Strome

    Lucic – Khaira – Rieder

    Upshall – Brodziak – Kassian

    I just don’t really want to put Juhjar in a spot like that. A lot of the impression of his improvement last year was based on some goals where he beat NHL goalies clean from some distance and I don’t know if he’s that guy.

  5. 36 percent body fat says:

    3 thiings,

    1, sorry ottawa, but there is no package in a leon for erik swap, age and contract dictate this. Karlsson wants out, and no other team is offering a young number 1 center signed for 7 more years. Maybe Karlsson is the better player and I dont want to sound like a homer but this is the situation ottawa is left with. Does Petterson and a first and something get you him, maybe but those are lottery tickets.

    2. Gagner was not rushed in, 49 and 42 point seasons in the nhl is nothing to bock at as a young 18 and 19 year old. What was left in the CHL. It was the inability to put complimentary players around him that was the issue. The 07-08 and 08-09 teams were not that bad and neither was gagner those years. It was the following year when a sell off happened and he was asked more than he had developed into being able to do. This is managements fault. It is well know he was a hard worker and studied video footage.

    3. SOMEONE SHOW CHIA AND TMAC THESE CHARTS ON HOW BAD CAGGULIA IS PLEASE

  6. nvan97 says:

    I don’t think it would take Draisaitl to land Karlsson. Top flight d-men typically get traded for a far inferior package. I would guess Lucic, PJ, Bear and 2019 1st. When teams know that the team is looking to trade the player they don’t need to overpay.I know I’m probably gonna get hammered for this suggestion but the precedent is there.

  7. 36 percent body fat says:

    Signing Rick Nash would be huge,

    2 way left winger who can get 20! This would push Lucic and Caggulia down, and allow for options in the top 6.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    No surprise but Toby Enstrom is signing with Modo.

    I saw a nice fit but it never seemed like it was a realistic option for the team (or the player).

  9. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide:

    Would you trade Leon Draisaitl (in a package) for a signed Erik Karlsson? Someone asked me that on the text line the other day, I said yes. There are risks, Karlsson is 28 now and has played in over 600 NHL games with some significant injuries. Thoughts?

    Our D would look really good.

    Our forwards, not so much.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    The question is what is best for Bouchard (among the allowable options, i.e., not the AHL)?

    I don’t think the answer to that question is clear. Its likely somewhere between the CHL and the NHL but there are no such options.

    Unfortunately, we probably don’t have great visibility in to the answer prior to the team heading the Europe – is there any real doubt that Bouchard will look very good in the early pre-season games against middling lineups? Recently drafted high end players generally do look good in those games.

    I”m one of those guys that say “lets wait and see how he performs prior to formulating solid opinions on where he needs to play”.

    With that said, it highly likely that a material role in the NHL is beyond his reach this year.

    At the same time, unless his is overwhelmed, I see no issue in him hanging out with the team and taking up a roster spot for a few weeks or even longer. He can get spot started in games when the team is at home (maybe even they can go with 7D and 11F in those games). He can play 9 over a couple of months and then head to junior and the World Championships which knowledge of the speed of the NHL game.

    A benefit to that is that it provides some cover for guys like Bear for the first little while to head to Bakersfield and get some good ice. If they carry 8D it allows a forward like Yamamoto the same cover.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve been pushing for Ryan Strome in the top 6 on the wing all summer – the numbers support it.

    There is even some cover at 3C in Kyle Brodziak (with Khaira at 4C) given Brodziak’s proven ability to play up the lineup and produce (he was fantastic last year up the lineup after the trade deadline – in meaningful games).

    I don’t see coach giving it a chance – Strome will be the 3C.

    With that said, when they shorten the bench and need a goal or two, I do think he should be a valid option up the lineup with Brodz covering for 3C.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m hopeful that the RW depth chart is Yamamoto and Puljujarvi around the half way mark of this season – on merit.

    Its likely not reasonable to expect that but I don’t think its totally unreasonable to hope for it.

    I do expect Jesse to earn a top 6 spot on merit, I think he’s ready. Kailer is a bit of a wild-card but who knows, maybe all he needs is 35 AHL games?

  13. tileguy says:

    I’m going to guess you are the only person in Edmonton to say yes to that trade.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, Drake was over 2 P/60 at 5 on 5 with McDavid but, in the 146 minutes they had a goal share of 45% – McDavid was over 59% without Drake.

    I really hope the coaching staff acknowledge this type of drag.

    I think it really does a disservice to Drake (and the team) when he’s used up the lineup as it simply doesn’t make the team better.

    The sooner the coaching staff (and Drake) acknowledge that any lengthy career for Caggulia in the NHL will be as a bottom 6 energy player, the sooner he can work on the skills that will get him there (better defensive awareness, better PK, etc.).

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    Aberg as $650K needs to be given a real chance by the coaching staff in the top 6.

    This player needs to be on the team and providing immense value for that minuscule cap hit. That cap hit is an asset for a player that, while inconsistent, has shown the ability to score in this league and has more 200 foot awareness than Caggulia.

  16. John Chambers says:

    Leon for Karlsson? No way.

    It’s an age thing. Sure Drai’s contract is 7 more years, but he and Connor could be Oilers for another 15.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    Karlsson hasn’t missed a ton of games but the reports that “they took half my ankle bone” are concerning. I don’t really know what that means (and if Karlssson is exaggerating when he states it) but ankles worry me.

    I’m not saying this is the same type of injury but look what ankle issues did the careers of Whitney and Forsberg.

    Yes, Karlsson still produced at an elite level offensively this past season but I believe his numbers were down and, from accounts, his overall game wasn’t as great as we’ve become accustomed to seeing. Did it have anything to do with his ankle? I have no idea. His team was terrible and I’m sure that played a part but did his ankle play a part as well?

    Can we pay a guy, even a generational d-man, $11.5M for his 30s with that type of risk (not to mention the assets it would take to acquire him signed)?

  18. Spooky Lynx says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The question is what is best for Bouchard (among the allowable options, i.e., not the AHL)?

    I don’t think the answer to that question is clear. Its likely somewhere between the CHL and the NHL but there are no such options.

    SHL, KHL, or some other high level European league?

    Or is that impossible with Bouchard being signed to an NHL entry level contract?

  19. godot10 says:

    In the Friedman tweet, Erik Karlsson has motivation to, and is likely lying. He only gets traded to a US team if the offers are good enough for Ottawa. By spreading disinformation that he is willing to go to a Canadian team, he forces better offers from the US teams to Ottawa, which increases the chances that he will get traded to an American team.

    He wants out of Canada.

  20. frjohnk says:

    Karlsson is the better player today, but he is also 5 years older. Drai has not entered his prime yet.

    Karlssons next contract will no doubt be the highest for Dmen in the league. Im guessing around $11M, so it would higher than Drai.

    This trade would hurt the forward depth. Then take a look at the forward group with a McDavid injury.

    I wouldnt do this trade as we can not afford to trade another impact forward to fix the D.

  21. godot10 says:

    Sather kept Gretzky and Messier, sent Coffey out. Two centres >> One centre and one D.

    Pittsburgh, two centres, twice. Lemieux and Francis, Crosby and Malkin.
    Detroit, Datsyuk and Zetterberg
    LA, Kopitar and Carter

    Chicago was a bit more diverse…Toew, Hossa, Kane, and Keith

    Two centres is a surer way to contending over an extended period.

    It would be nuts to trade Draisaitl for Karlsson.

  22. Woogie63 says:

    I really want to see 27-29-98 cycle again teams.

  23. leadfarmer says:

    Dallas wouldnt include Heiskanen for Karlsson and we are talking about Leon. Oh man.
    I would absolutely love the player but any player on an expiring contract does not command that type of return. Karlsson is also older and had bones removed out of his ankle and will need a 10-11 mil contract.
    Only way we get Karlsson is we build a time machine and not sign the Lucic, Sekera, and Russell contracts.
    Also removing Drai means our forward depth is Mcdavid, Nuge and maybe JP and then a 90s expansion caliber forward corpse

  24. slopitch says:

    I wouldnt move Drai for Karlsson. And I love Karlsson. Drai is locked in for too long of his prime years. Its a lateral move.

    The only play that makes sense for our perspective imo would be a futures + salary dump combo. Bouchard, Yamo, Lucic, 1st for a signed Karlsson? Im just not sure its the best long term play. Holding your cards and waiting for 2019-20 probably gives a longer/better cup window.

  25. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – LT says the team can survive this year without Bouchard. That got me thinking.

    2019 D::

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse- ?
    ? – Bouchard

    – If you assume that Sek is done, and Russel gets traded next off-season, it sets up quite well.

    – The competition for those ? 12 months out are: Benning, Bear, Jones, Lagesson, etc

    – If one of the ? is the next UFA Sek v.2 (i.e. as good as Sek was the two years), the potential for this D to be really really exceptional.

    – At worst Sek comes back as 3rd-line less good turd-polisher with Bouchard

    – This is a good development strategy IMO. All of Nurse, Larsson and Klef could be fully-formed.

  26. jp says:

    godot10,

    Detroit and LA had 2 canters AND an elite D.

  27. jtblack says:

    John Chambers:
    Leon for Karlsson? No way.

    It’s an age thing. Sure Drai’s contract is 7 more years, but he and Connor could be Oilers for another 15.

    +1

    LT, you are better than that. No Way. See Shea Weber deal. You lose 4 years or more and you lose the deal.

    Karlsson MIGHT help open the window for Stanley over the next 2 – 3years, but he then would become a liability for the next 3 or 4.

    Leon is Fantastic. He’s 22. The best is yet to come from Leon, including driving his own line (at least sawing off) … With a little PP push, Leon could be 85+ point producer.

    Last year Drai finished 36th in scoring. There were only 5 players younger than Leon in the Top 36 (McD, Barzal, Rantanen, Pastrnak, Laine).

    His ESP were tied for 18th in the League (Tied with Hall and Benn).

    I think Connor sometimes clouds our expectations of other players. I would ask what more do we want from Leon in his first 2+ years? nothing, he’s been excellent is still has room to improve his overall game. KEEP LEON all day long. He will be the one McDavid passes the Cup to after they win it.

  28. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Peter Chiarelli doesn’t have a “are you sure that’s a good idea?” assistant, but he needs to get one post haste.

    Keith G might be that guy.

    Whether or not he listens to him is also unknown.

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I’m of the opinion the RW depth chart will be Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto on the top two lines by 2020. I wonder if we see that changeover happen this winter?

    My guess is by New Years eve 2018.

  30. Woogie63 says:

    If Yamamoto goes to AHL for 40 games, what does he learn that makes playing with RNH and McDavid a better transition to the NHL?

  31. Primetime says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Aberg as $650K needs to be given a real chance by the coaching staff in the top 6.

    This player needs to be on the team and providing immense value for that minuscule cap hit.That cap hit is an asset for a player that, while inconsistent, has shown the ability to score in this league and has more 200 foot awareness than Caggulia.

    I have seen this sentiment a few times, but don’t understand the logic. I would rather see Aberg in the lineup than Caggiula as well, but that is based on play and potential, not his cap hit. Aberg needs to earn it (as should the Drake), but his cap hit is irrelevant. Drake is not going to the minors, the best scenario is the press box. Both of their salaries still count to the cap. If Aberg doesn’t force the issue to get in the lineup by play/practice, his $650K salary still holds value as being the extra body in the PB since we have no cap room for anyone else to sit there either.

  32. dustrock says:

    What would you say if Chiarelli said “screw it, I’ll trade for 1 year of Karlsson, knowing I probably can’t sign him to an extension”?

    Would you trade Puljujarvi and the 2019 1st for one year with Karlsson, for a real good shot at the Stanley Cup?

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    PunjabiOil:
    I believe the Tkachev’s you’re referring to are two different players, same name, 2 years apart.

    Oilers:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=163405

    Vegas interest:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=176813

    The Almost Oiler Tkachev has a much better pts/gm in the KHL than the other.

    When LT refers to an NHLE of 55 its Almost Oiler

  34. LMHF#1 says:

    Since he’s been here, Lucic hasn’t shown me anything that indicates he cares enough to get his game back. He’s resting on his laurels almost every night out there. I’ve seen good Lucic before…but not in a n Oilers jersey.

    Karlsson would make so much sense and is exactly the move needed to compete in a league where Toronto signs Tavares to go with their crew…but the Oilers management remains obsessed with mediocre players and overpaying out of paranoia. So here we are…on the outside looking in again.

  35. Primetime says:

    jp:
    godot10,

    Detroit and LA had 2 canters AND an elite D.

    Sure, but they didn’t trade one of those centers away to get the elite D…leaving 1 centre and 1 elite D. I think that was his point.

  36. Ribs says:

    Draisaitl without McDavid is still a damned good hockey player. I’d find a way to put Nugent-Hopkins on his wing.

    I’d like to see this for a few shifts… 93-29-97. Just to see! C’mon!

  37. OilClog says:

    Shipping out Leon for a defender with ankles that are quickly eroding a career.. seems legit

  38. dustrock says:

    LMHF#1:
    Since he’s been here, Lucic hasn’t shown me anything that indicates he cares enough to get his game back. He’s resting on his laurels almost every night out there. I’ve seen good Lucic before…but not in a n Oilers jersey.

    Karlsson would make so much sense and is exactly the move needed to compete in a league where Toronto signs Tavares to go with their crew…but the Oilers management remains obsessed with mediocre players and overpaying out of paranoia. So here we are…on the outside looking in again.

    Yes, $10m tied up in Lucic and KR certainly hurts at times. Day by day, by day.

  39. jtblack says:

    Woogie63:
    If Yamamoto goes to AHL for 40 games, what does he learn that makes playing with RNH and McDavid a better transition to the NHL?

    Maybe ask Patsrnak, Ratanen and Nylander. They might be able to answer your question.

  40. Side says:

    I hope you learned your lesson, LT.

    That’ll teach you for sharing an opinion and posing a question to the readers!

  41. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Put me in the “no thanks to Karlsson for Drai” camp. I’d rather we keep moving forward developing in house options – limited as they may be right now, than trade a legit developing large powerful center with prime years yet to come.

  42. JustWatt says:

    dustrock:
    What would you say if Chiarelli said “screw it, I’ll trade for 1 year of Karlsson, knowing I probably can’t sign him to an extension”?

    Would you trade Puljujarvi and the 2019 1st for one year with Karlsson, for a real good shot at the Stanley Cup?

    No way, still waaaay too high a price.

    The idea that I keep coming back to is a trade built around RNH. He’s no longer the 1st or 2nd line center of the future on this team but he’s still a former 1OV center who can play either 1C or 2C.

    I’d definitely trade RNH and 2019 1st rounder and a prospect for a signed Karlsson.

    I’d think long and hard about RNH for Karlsson unsigned, 1-for-1.

    I love him but I think Nuge is the bait we can dangle and it’s gotta be tempting.

  43. Melvis says:

    Chances are good Drai will have earned his keep and then some by the time he turns 28. Karlsson, at 28, will demand the moon, the stars, fuckyou money and then some, over significant term, and I’m betting that ankle will let him down long before the end of that term. Plus chances aren’t bad for better D over the next couple of years, via pipeline or trades.

    No to the trade.

  44. frjohnk says:

    If Drai for Karlsson is a no go for most people, how bad is the Hall Larsson swap?

  45. Bank Shot says:

    You don’t trade Draisaitl for Karlsson.

    You give Ottawa the “Pronger to Anaheim” package.

    If you are throwing in any high salary forward it would be RNH over Draisaitl.

    Agreed on Gagner being in the NHL too early. He could score and still can but man was he just unbelievably slow his first couple of seasons in the league. His foot speed got a little better, but he never did learn how to play defence. It might have turned out differently if he had been in an org that forced him to earn what he got. Maybe not. I suspect he’d still be abut the same player as he is now.

    I still have time for Drake. He had one of the lowest on ice shooting % and save % on the team last year. Maybe he gets some luck this year. He has a realistic opinion of himself as a player and is willing to do anything to make it. I think that counts for something.

  46. godot10 says:

    Bank Shot:

    I still have time for Drake. He had one of the lowest on ice shooting % and save % on the team last year. Maybe he gets some luck this year.He has a realistic opinion of himself as a player and is willing to do anything to make it. I think that counts for something.

    There is a reason for the low on ice save percentage. He is a complete defensive liability. It is like playing a man short. The save percentage goes down.

    One has to pass a threshold of competence before a general rule of thumb like “players don’t affect save percentage” applies.

    Caggiula is NOT an NHL player. Neither is Rattie.

  47. Wilde says:

    jtblack: LT, you are better than that.

    Better than what?

    Generating discussion?

  48. Buddy says:

    godot10:
    Sather kept Gretzky and Messier, sent Coffey out.Two centres >> One centre and one D.

    Pittsburgh, two centres, twice.Lemieux and Francis,Crosby and Malkin.
    Detroit, Datsyuk and Zetterberg
    LA, Kopitar and Carter

    Chicago was a bit more diverse…Toew, Hossa, Kane, and Keith

    Two centres is a surer way to contending over an extended period.

    It would be nuts to trade Draisaitl for Karlsson.

    I have no argument with your point that two elite centres are better than a centre and a defenceman (you’re probably right), only with it formulated as a conscious decision by Sather. That was entirely Pocklington’s call. He was in massive financial trouble already at the time, and traded Gretzky 8 or 9 months later. If I remember correctly, at one point in Coffey’s contract negotiations Pocklington offered him some sort of equity interest in a strip mall somewhere (“Trust me, Paul”) — Coffey refused, since he curiously just wanted a biweekly paycheck.

  49. Bank Shot says:

    godot10: There is a reason for the low on ice save percentage.He is a complete defensive liability.It is like playing a man short.The save percentage goes down.

    On has to pass a threshold of competence before a general rule of thumb like “players don’t affect save percentage” applies.

    Caggiula is NOT an NHL player.Neither is Rattie.

    Caggiula was second highest on the team in 16/17 in save % among forwards that played more than 500 minutes ES.

    So I’m not going to accept your comments because they don’t jive logically.

  50. Westchester Oil says:

    JustWatt: needed

    I think i’d take a chance on a 1:1 RNH for unsigned Karlsson swap. I’m not sure I’d want to resign Karlsson for the salary + term that he’d want given his age + injury risk. If Karlsson is not resigned you might be able to move him for something good at the deadline if the Oilers miss the playoffs. In any case, the year after we’d have freed up some significant salary.

  51. Woogie63 says:

    jtblack: Maybe ask Patsrnak, Ratanen and Nylander. They might be able to answer your question.

    My point is McDavid is such a unique player, the is no apprenticeship that can prepare you for that role. 97 cleaned up Maroon’s barrow skill base.

  52. who says:

    dustrock:
    What would you say if Chiarelli said “screw it, I’ll trade for 1 year of Karlsson, knowing I probably can’t sign him to an extension”?

    Would you trade Puljujarvi and the 2019 1st for one year with Karlsson, for a real good shot at the Stanley Cup?

    No.
    Your best chance to win a cup is to keep the cup window open as long as possible. It still requires some luck.
    Loading up for 1 year actually decreases your odds.

  53. Bank Shot says:

    Westchester Oil: I think i’d take a chance on a 1:1 RNH for unsigned Karlsson swap. I’m not sure I’d want to resign Karlsson for the salary + term that he’d want given his age + injury risk. If Karlsson is not resigned you might be able to move him for something good at the deadline if the Oilers miss the playoffs. In any case, the year after we’d have freed up some significant salary.

    I think Karlsson would be a no brainer easy re-sign. Norris trophy winners age well.

    Here’s the winners since 1990: (The ones over 35)
    Bourque
    Lidstrom
    Chelios
    Coffey
    Leetch
    Blake
    MacInnis
    Pronger
    Niedermayer
    Chara

    Here’s the guys from that group that were no longer good at age 35:

    Most of them had freakish longevity.

  54. Melvis says:

    “We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.”

    That’s pretty good copywriting. I tend to subscribe to the notion that people don’t read advertising – they read what interests them.

    Here’s some skinny on the Athletic at the Times today:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/sports/the-athletic-netflix.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fsports&action=click&contentCollection=sports&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=3&pgtype=sectionfront

    There’s an adjacent article and link from 10 months ago.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/23/sports/the-athletic-newspapers.html?action=click&module=RelatedCoverage&pgtype=Article&region=Footer

    The writer, Kevin Draper can be found here.

    https://twitter.com/kevinmdraper?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

    The vast majority of the comments on the second link are vehemently negative regarding the arrogance of the Athletic co-founders. Maybe about 230 of 237. For the record, I’m not one of them.
    If Alan can monetize his interests and passions, great. In a nutshell, he put in the time and the effort over many years.

    Then there’s Bruce. Short of detailing, I’m finding the straddling of the rapids and the inherent symbiosis quite fascinating. There’s a grad thesis lurking in there, somewhere.

  55. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Karlsson hasn’t missed a ton of games but the reports that “they took half my ankle bone” are concerning. I don’t really know what that means (and if Karlssson is exaggerating when he states it) but ankles worry me.

    I’m not saying this is the same type of injury but look what ankle issues did the careers of Whitney and Forsberg.

    Yes, Karlsson still produced at an elite level offensively this past season but I believe his numbers were down and, from accounts, his overall game wasn’t as great as we’ve become accustomed to seeing. Did it have anything to do with his ankle? I have no idea. His team was terrible and I’m sure that played a part but did his ankle play a part as well?

    Can we pay a guy, even a generational d-man, $11.5M for his 30s with that type of risk (not to mention the assets it would take to acquire him signed)?

    Spending half the cap on three players is inconceivable, there is no way the Oilers can consider such a move without reducing the forward roster to McD and a dozen AHL level players.

  56. jtblack says:

    frjohnk:
    If Drai for Karlsson is a no go for most people, how bad is the Hall Larsson swap?

    there are a few major differences:

    Larsson was 23 when he arrived in Edm. Younger than Hall, so you weren’t trading away prime years for possible past due years.

    Larsson arrived with 5 years remaining on a Team Friendly $4.1 mil / yr deal.

  57. Durag says:

    who,

    Agree. Also, I don’t think the Oilers + Karlsson and – Draisaitl are strong favourites to win a cup this year. There are a lot of holes up front on that team. A Karlsson injury means that even playoffs would be a long shot.

  58. jtblack says:

    Wilde: Better than what?

    Generating discussion?

    true dat. good for discussion.

    I just have this little LT voice in my head saying “Draft Good Players, Keep Good Players.”

  59. Oilman99 says:

    Woogie63:
    If Yamamoto goes to AHL for 40 games, what does he learn that makes playing with RNH and McDavid a better transition to the NHL?

    The guy has to learn how to play and survive against men before he steps into the even faster pace of the NHL. One step a time, so that he is prepared to succeed when he gets the call.

  60. jtblack says:

    Woogie63: My point is McDavid is such a unique player, the is no apprenticeship that can prepare you for that role.97 cleaned up Maroon’s barrow skill base.

    I agree that McDavid is very unique and that you cannot apprentice for a role to play on his wing. But that doesn’t equate to spending time in the AHL is bad.

    The reason for apprenticing is to be as ready as possible for one’s work. Time in the AHL helps a player develop physically (which Yammy might benefit from), mentally (all players benefit from learning how to be a Pro) and skill set (Young players can refine their “other” skills like forecheck, faceoff, puck retrieval, etc) ..

    so hopefully when a player does come up, they are ready for whatever opportunity comes there way and never go back (A la Leon in 2015). JP last year.

  61. Oilman99 says:

    Wilde:
    I’ve been trying to figure out how to get 93 and 29 together too.

    Biggest bugger in the whole thing?

    Not having an extra depth centre.

    Aberg – McDavid – Puljujarvi

    Nuge – Draisaitl – Strome

    Lucic – Khaira – Rieder

    Upshall – Brodziak – Kassian

    I just don’t really want to put Juhjar in a spot like that. A lot of the impression of his improvement last year was based on some goals where he beat NHL goalies clean from some distance and I don’t know if he’s that guy.

    Khaira has the commitment and work ethic to become a no. 3 centre, however Strome proved in NY that he is a better fit at centre rather than wing. There is still a possibility that JJ developes to the point that he becomes a top six player, he has the wheels and physicality if his scoring ability continues to progress.

  62. 4020Driver says:

    Hi all, I read this blog daily but rarely post. I was wondering why teams don’t send prospects that are too good for Major Junior but too young for the AHL to Europe for a year? I think a prospect like Evan Bouchard might develop more spending a year in the Swedish Elite League or Swiss League than playing another year in the OHL. Is there a rule preventing teams from doing this?

  63. Ribs says:

    Melvis,

    Umm, wow. Those links are a little unsettling. I hope they succeed despite themselves for their content creators well being.

  64. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    4020Driver,

    He’s contractually bound to the London Knights next year if he’s not playing in the NHL. The following year he’s eligible for the AHL or other pro leagues if he’s not ready for the NHL.

  65. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Woogie63:
    If Yamamoto goes to AHL for 40 games, what does he learn that makes playing with RNH and McDavid a better transition to the NHL?

    The goal should be for KY to learn to be an effective player against grown men. In their heyday, the Red Wings used to send everybody to the AHL. This should be the model, and I think Chia is trying to do this now with all the college guys he’s bringing in to make up for the horrible draft record. Once a player proves that he can handle the AHL game (not necessarily dominate, but be effective), then give him his shot. I’d rather see them let all the prospects “over-ripen” in the AHL than to rush them. Confidence is a huge thing, and I also like the idea of these players being motivated by a demotion. Then when they get the call they are motivated to prove they should have been there all along (see Anthony Mantha: 120 pts in Jr=2+ seasons in AHL). It makes them want to prove mgmt was wrong for sending them down. That’s the kind of culture I want to see for the Oilers, but it takes a lot of patience from the GM. It’s not a quick fix.

  66. anduril says:

    I would not trade Leon Draisaitl for a signed Erik Karlsson straight up. You give up too much in youth and balance. However, the Senators have both Duchene and Stone on expiring contracts, heading to UFA status. So, what about a larger package?

    Draisaitl and one of Bouchard/Klefbom/Nurse (+ Pick?) for Stone or Duchene and Karlsson?

    This way you don’t lose balance by giving up a forward for a defenceman. The salary should work if the Oilers give up Klefbom or Nurse because they’d be sending about $12-13m to Ottawa, while bringing back $12-13m this year, only going up to $17-19m next year. Hopefully, they’d be able to clear any additional space they needed by then. I don’t like the idea of giving up Klefbom or Nurse though, especially with Sekera out, because our left-side will be quite weak.

    Personally, Draisaitl is one of my favourite Oilers so I’d hate to see him go but Karlsson with one of those two forwards would be arguably a price worth paying. Senators don’t get hosed either. They trade an elite D for an elite C, plus pick up a nice piece on the blueline. They get younger and cheaper without much loss of skill. Not sure they get anything that good elsewhere.

  67. Munny says:

    Believe it or not, Chia might be the guy in the room who is most likely to say “Are you sure you want to do that?”

    Except when it comes to defensemen.

    That guy will be Kevin Lowe.

    There hasn’t been a single Oiler defenseman rushed under his watch.

  68. JustWatt says:

    Bank Shot,

    That’s a shocking list. Man, now I REALLY want Karlsson. (though to be fair how many of those guys had an injury as serious as Karlsson’s)

  69. Melvis says:

    Ribs,

    “Umm wow” is right. I’m separating the situation in YEG from all the rest of it and pretty much leaving it at that – but curiosity abounds.

  70. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’m hopeful that the RW depth chart is Yamamoto and Puljujarvi around the half way mark of this season – on merit.

    Its likely not reasonable to expect that but I don’t think its totally unreasonable to hope for it.

    I do expect Jesse to earn a top 6 spot on merit, I think he’s ready.Kailer is a bit of a wild-card but who knows, maybe all he needs is 35 AHL games?

    I would buy into a line of Lucic Strome and Yamamoto. Line has balance as well as protection for the rookie. Lucic is a class act and would be a great mentor for the young man. Used as a defacto third line I think it has the balance skill etc to be a two or two b line. First line of McDavid Nuge and JP. Draisaitl with Rieder and Khaira. Fourth line Brodziak Kassian and coaches favorite. Not sure if the chemistry would fit but what I see as balance with offense, defense,speed and size on all four lines as appropriate

  71. pts2pndr says:

    Bank Shot: I think Karlsson would be a no brainer easy re-sign. Norris trophy winners age well.

    Here’s the winners since 1990: (The ones over 35)
    Bourque
    Lidstrom
    Chelios
    Coffey
    Leetch
    Blake
    MacInnis
    Pronger
    Niedermayer
    Chara

    Here’s the guys from that group that were no longer good at age 35:

    Most of them had freakish longevity.

    None of them had the severity of injury that karlsson had at his age!

  72. pts2pndr says:

    anduril:
    I would not trade Leon Draisaitl for a signed Erik Karlsson straight up. You give up too much in youth and balance. However, the Senators have both Duchene and Stone on expiring contracts, heading to UFA status. So, what about a larger package?

    Draisaitl and one of Bouchard/Klefbom/Nurse (+ Pick?) for Stone or Duchene and Karlsson?

    This way you don’t lose balance by giving up a forward for a defenceman. The salary should work if the Oilers give up Klefbom or Nurse because they’d be sending about $12-13m to Ottawa, while bringing back $12-13m this year, only going up to $17-19m next year. Hopefully, they’d be able to clear any additional space they needed by then. I don’t like the idea of giving up Klefbom or Nurse though, especially with Sekera out, because our left-side will be quite weak.

    Personally, Draisaitl is one of my favourite Oilers so I’d hate to see him go but Karlsson with one of those two forwards would be arguably a price worth paying. Senators don’t get hosed either. They trade an elite D for an elite C, plus pick up a nice piece on the blueline. They get younger and cheaper without much loss of skill. Not sure they get anything that good elsewhere.

    Maybe just trade rosters straight accross except keep McDavid!

  73. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JustWatt: No way, still waaaay too high a price.

    The idea that I keep coming back to is a trade built around RNH. He’s no longer the 1st or 2nd line center of the future on this team but he’s still a former 1OV center who can play either 1C or 2C.

    I’d definitely trade RNH and 2019 1st rounder and a prospect for a signed Karlsson.

    I’d think long and hard about RNH for Karlsson unsigned, 1-for-1.

    I love him but I think Nuge is the bait we can dangle and it’s gotta be tempting.

    If you move RNH you are one injury away from Strome centering a line vs NHLers who can score.

    That way lay madness.

  74. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    dustrock: Yes, $10m tied up in Lucic and KR certainly hurts at times.Day by day, by day.

    Man.

  75. anduril says:

    pts2pndr,

    Because that comes close to what I was suggesting??

  76. --hudson-- says:

    Melvis:
    “We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.”

    That’s pretty good copywriting. I tend to subscribe to the notion that people don’t read advertising – they read what interests them.

    Here’s some skinny on the Athletic at the Times today:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/sports/the-athletic-netflix.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fsports&action=click&contentCollection=sports&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=3&pgtype=sectionfront

    There’s an adjacent article and link from 10 months ago.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/23/sports/the-athletic-newspapers.html?action=click&module=RelatedCoverage&pgtype=Article&region=Footer

    The writer, Kevin Draper can be found here.

    https://twitter.com/kevinmdraper?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

    The vast majority of the comments on the second link are vehemently negative regarding the arrogance of the Athletic co-founders. Maybe about 230 of 237. For the record, I’m not one of them.
    If Alan can monetize his interests and passions, great. In a nutshell, he put in the time and the effort over many years.

    Then there’s Bruce. Short of detailing, I’m finding the straddling of the rapids and the inherent symbiosis quite fascinating. There’s a grad thesis lurking in there, somewhere.

    Appreciate the links, it’ll be a fun one to watch. I’m happy for the content writers like Lowetide and even the Lebruns, despite the arrogance of the founders or the VCs. You need a certain amount of arrogance to lead a risky product and imo we need platforms like these to emerge if the newspaper industry dies.

    Another relevant link: https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/the-athletic#section-funding-rounds

    So $20M of their $27.7M was raised 5 months ago. If they burned through $5M in the last year while growing rapidly, how long will the $20M last? If Toronto was the only break even market a year ago, how many are there this year?

    These guys are making BOLD moves, hopefully not in a Craig MacTavish way.

  77. Melvis says:

    If you move Nuge, you’ve pissed away Connor’s wing man and the best line in hockey not named Crosby – for one and half ankles.

    Some music please.

  78. jp says:

    Primetime: Sure, but they didn’t trade one of those centers away to get the elite D…leaving 1 centre and 1 elite D.I think that was his point.

    Godot’s original post framed it as a choice between 2 centers vs 1C + 1D. I was pointing out that 2 of the examples he used already had 2C + 1D, and thus weren’t faced with the same choice. As you point out those teams (not surprisingly) also didn’t trade one of their Cs for a second D.

  79. 4020Driver says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Thanks, that makes sense. Too bad though because I think Bouchard would benefit from a year on the big ice.

  80. Bank Shot says:

    pts2pndr: None of them had the severity of injury that karlsson had at his age!

    Guys like Pronger and Blake missed entire seasons due to knee injuries.

  81. Munny says:

    Bank Shot,

    He also had only one effective year at that age… his 35 yr old year.

  82. Melvis says:

    –hudson–,

    Print journalism and the newspaper industry spiralled down a clogged drain with the advent of the digital age. The publishing heads were firmly planted in the sand or up their respective asses throughout the loss of classified, display advertising, and loyal, life long subscribers.

    Now the guardians at the Guardian, eg. (and their billion dollar trust fund) have their mitts out begging me for a sub. They could have spent the last forty years getting their ducks in a row. They should be embarrassed, but their inherent politics seems to void that.

    My Mac and Macwrite put the $35/hr typesetters at the local print shop out of work in the late 80’s.Those who were unwilling regarding computer literacy ended up waiting on tables. Therein lies the tale.

    Sports reporting aside, I like pulling a newspaper out of my mail box and mulling it over my morning coffee. Unfortunately, the likes of the Globe and Mail and the National Post and their ilk over the above named time period have turned into little more than hot air opinion and squalid trash.

    I’m not feeling for them.

  83. Munny says:

    Melvis,

    Research journalism has gone the way of the Auk. With media outlets essentially formed into trusts, there’s no diversity of opinion and the rags are little more than promo sheets and echo chambers for their conglomerate’s other products.

    And don’t get me started on AT&T buying TimeWarner and Disney buying Fox, both this year…

  84. Bank Shot says:

    Munny,

    Who?

  85. Melvis says:

    Munny,

    I should mention – I feel for guys like Bruce. He’s a good writer, knowledgeable, fair minded, and long at the game. I imagine he and others like him are faced with this nascent dilemma.

  86. leadfarmer says:

    Bank Shot,

    Yes but that is not what Karlsson had. He had, as he states it “Half his ankle bone removed”. The question of how the ankle will hold up going forward is a very significant one.

  87. godot10 says:

    JustWatt:
    Bank Shot,

    That’s a shocking list. Man, now I REALLY want Karlsson. (though to be fair how many of those guys had an injury as serious as Karlsson’s)

    None of those guys on the list had major injuries in their twenties.

  88. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    You dont have surgery like that without serious degeneration of the ankle.

  89. N64 says:

    Munny: Disney buying Fox

    That deal does not include Fox Network or Fox News.

  90. PinkSocks says:

    Bank Shot: I think Karlsson would be a no brainer easy re-sign. Norris trophy winners age well.

    Here’s the winners since 1990: (The ones over 35)
    Bourque
    Lidstrom
    Chelios
    Coffey
    Leetch
    Blake
    MacInnis
    Pronger
    Niedermayer
    Chara

    Here’s the guys from that group that were no longer good at age 35:

    Most of them had freakish longevity.

    Duncan Keith? Won the Norris twice, most recently at 30 years old.

    Currently he is 35, and last year was a certifiable dumpster fire. No major injuries either.

    Contract notwithstanding, if the Oilers were to acquire any recent RHD Norris winner, I’d take Doughty and Subban before Karlsson for sure, probably even Burns. It’s far too much risk for a player with an injury that will not ever fully heal.

  91. Wilde says:

    If this team had McDavid, Karlsson and cap problems, I can guarantee the cap problems wouldn’t be because of McDavid and Karlsson.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    I’ve been trying to figure out how to get 93 and 29 together too.

    Biggest bugger in the whole thing?

    Not having an extra depth centre.

    Aberg – McDavid – Puljujarvi

    Nuge – Draisaitl – Strome

    Lucic – Khaira – Rieder

    Upshall – Brodziak – Kassian

    I just don’t really want to put Juhjar in a spot like that. A lot of the impression of his improvement last year was based on some goals where he beat NHL goalies clean from some distance and I don’t know if he’s that guy.

    I would love to see Strome explored at wing in the top 6.

    I think the switch that makes sense to me is to move Brodziak to 3C – he had a fantastic 16 game stretch up the lineup last year with Steen and Berglund with many primary points and led the team in P/60 during that stretch.

    No, we don’t want to rely on him as the 3C all year long but I think he can play up the lineup and contribute for stretches.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Spooky Lynx: SHL, KHL, or some other high level European league?

    Or is that impossible with Bouchard being signed to an NHL entry level contract?

    Its impossible, I believe, because he is signed to the CHL.

    Its not the same as Matthews who wasn’t committed to the CHL.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    What would you say if Chiarelli said “screw it, I’ll trade for 1 year of Karlsson, knowing I probably can’t sign him to an extension”?

    Would you trade Puljujarvi and the 2019 1st for one year with Karlsson, for a real good shot at the Stanley Cup?

    Does that give the team a real good shot at Stanley? I say not really.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ribs: I’d like to see this for a few shifts… 93-29-97. Just to see! C’mon!

    6 mintues together at evens last year with 70% posession (generally) – zero goals either direction.

  96. Bank Shot says:

    godot10: None of those guys on the list had major injuries in their twenties.

    I listed two that missed entire seasons to knee injuries. Those are major injuries.

  97. Bank Shot says:

    leadfarmer:
    Bank Shot,

    Yes but that is not what Karlsson had.He had, as he states it “Half his ankle bone removed”.The question of how the ankle will hold up going forward is a very significant one.

    He still had what? 62 points in 70 games coming off the ankle injury.

    I wouldn’t say its been causing him major issues. Either way I’d let a professional examine the medical records and if they think its fine that would be good enough for me.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk:
    If Drai for Karlsson is a no go for most people, how bad is the Hall Larsson swap?

    That’s not really a fair question, now, is it?

    I would say that the following are HUGE factors:

    – one player at 28 years old signed for one more year that is going to require 8 X $11M to re-sign and will likely not resign in any event (i.e. one year rental) and has a serious injury history

    – one player at 23 and signed for 5 more years at very reasonable money

    In this era a trade cannot simply be looked at as player vs. player.

  99. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would love to see Strome explored at wing in the top 6.

    I think the switch that makes sense to me is to move Brodziak to 3C – he had a fantastic 16 game stretch up the lineup last year with Steen and Berglund with many primary points and led the team in P/60 during that stretch.

    No, we don’t want to rely on him as the 3C all year long but I think he can play up the lineup and contribute for stretches.

    It’s funny, Steen and Berglund are(were) some of the weaker links in the STL forward corps, but in this case they’re a better set than a lot of what the Oilers can run on the 3rd unit if they’re loading up the top six with McDavid, Nuge, Draisaitl, Strome and Puljujarvi.

    (And so the trouble with projecting Brodziak at 3C based on his spotwork there last year is the difference in linemates the Oilers could give compared to what the Blues gave him)

    Steen and Lucic are pretty close in ability, but Berglund is the opposite of a lot of wingers on the Oilers that have some offensive ability but aren’t good at all in transition or coverage.

    I think it’d have to be Lucic – Brodziak – Rieder and pray.

    You know though, I’ll bet anyone that can give me good odds that L2 coming out of camp will be Lucic – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi, and I think that’s a fine way to run it to start too.

  100. Ribs says:

    OriginalPouzar: 6 mintues together at evens last year with 70% posession (generally) – zero goals either direction.

    Video or it never happened! 😉

  101. Bank Shot says:

    PinkSocks: Duncan Keith?Won the Norris twice, most recently at 30 years old.

    Currently he is 35, and last year was a certifiable dumpster fire.No major injuries either.

    Contract notwithstanding, if the Oilers were to acquire any recent RHD Norris winner, I’d take Doughty and Subban before Karlsson for sure, probably even Burns. It’s far too much risk for a player with an injury that will not ever fully heal.

    Duncan Keith would be an exception. Chicago as a whole had an off year last season. We will see how he bounces back.

    I’d take Doughty over Karlsson as well. I’d take Karlsson over the other two.

    Subban won his Norris in a half season. He’s never come close again. He’s never scored as many points in a season as Karlsson did coming off his ankle surgery.

    I get Karlsson’s injury sounds scary but he missed like 10 games and still played at a high level after coming back.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot:
    You don’t trade Draisaitl for Karlsson.

    You give Ottawa the “Pronger to Anaheim” package.

    So:

    2 1st round picks (granted one conditonal)
    A 2nd round pick
    A recently drafted top 10 d-man (Bouchard)
    A 21 year old emerging goal scorer – Lupul had scored 29 – we don’t have this, JP would be the closest but he’s not established – likely Nuge

  103. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: 6 mintues together at evens last year with 70% posession (generally) – zero goals either direction.

    I’m at the spot in the season this unit happened in my game reviews and this was used exclusively in late-game, trailing situations

  104. Wilde says:

    Ribs: Video or it never happened!

    You don’t want to see it. It’s complete blue-balling. Just sheer dominance vs turtling structure but they couldn’t score.

    Got stopped a few times in the neutral zone too.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot:

    I still have time for Drake. He had one of the lowest on ice shooting % and save % on the team last year. Maybe he gets some luck this year.He has a realistic opinion of himself as a player and is willing to do anything to make it. I think that counts for something.

    I wish the coach had a realistic opinion of him. The coach has been hurting Drake’s career by giving him top 6 minutes. He’s not a top 6 player.

    If Drake is willing to do anything that he needs the coach to help him realize what it took Cogliano a few years to realize – he’s not going to be a top 6 player and he needs to work on the skills that will make him effective as a bottom 6 player (responsible, tenacious, PK, etc.).

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot: I think Karlsson would be a no brainer easy re-sign. Norris trophy winners age well.

    Here’s the winners since 1990: (The ones over 35)
    Bourque
    Lidstrom
    Chelios
    Coffey
    Leetch
    Blake
    MacInnis
    Pronger
    Niedermayer
    Chara

    Here’s the guys from that group that were no longer good at age 35:

    Most of them had freakish longevity.

    How many of them have had sliced achillies and “half their ankle bone removed”?

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    4020Driver:
    Hi all, I read this blog daily but rarely post.I was wondering why teams don’t send prospects that are too good for Major Junior but too young for the AHL to Europe for a year?I think a prospect like Evan Bouchard might develop more spending a year in the Swedish Elite League or Swiss League than playing another year in the OHL.Is there a rule preventing teams from doing this?

    Its not an option as they have contracts with their CHL teams and are committed.

    Its not like Auston Matthews that had no obligation to a CHL team.

  108. Ribs says:

    Wilde: You don’t want to see it. It’s complete blue-balling. Just sheer dominance vs turtling structure but they couldn’t score.

    Got stopped a few times in the neutral zone too.

    Very cool! Thanks guys.

  109. godot10 says:

    Bank Shot: I listed two that missed entire seasons to knee injuries. Those are major injuries.

    Knee injuries are not what they used to be.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ribs: Video or it never happened!

    To be honest, I can’t even confirm that they were run as a line and most of that time wasn’t just line change overlap.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: I’m at the spot inthe season this unit happened in my game reviews and this was used exclusively in late-game, trailing situations

    Thanks – I wasn’t even sure if it was deployed as a line or just line change overlap – now I know they did get a few real shifts together.

  112. Ribs says:

    OriginalPouzar: How many of them have had sliced achillies and “half their ankle bone removed”?

    I think you mean “How many of them have upgraded super ankles that now operate at 110%!”

  113. Bling says:

    I wouldn’t go near Karlsson because of that ankle injury.

  114. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    A decent way to check this is just looking at their OZ/NZ starts

    Entirely unintentional units still get faceoffs, but they’re all DZ one post-icing.

  115. OilClog says:

    If it’s anything more then Klef+ or Jesse+ it’s an overpay for the current situation Ottawa is in.

    IMO taking 93 off of 97’s wing see he can run with 29 is the same as trying to reinvent the wheel?

    Why? Are you sure you want to do that? Fixings unbroken things is your thing eh

  116. leadfarmer says:

    Bank Shot: He still had what? 62 points in 70 games coming off the ankle injury.

    I wouldn’t say its been causing him major issues.Either way I’d let a professional examine the medical records and if they think its fine that would be good enough for me.

    He clearly has recovered from that ankle surgery. The issue is how long is that ankle going to hold up. Things like that don’t get better as you age

  117. Glovjuice says:

    godot10: There is a reason for the low on ice save percentage.He is a complete defensive liability.It is like playing a man short.The save percentage goes down.

    One has to pass a threshold of competence before a general rule of thumb like “players don’t affect save percentage” applies.

    Caggiula is NOT an NHL player.Neither is Rattie.

    Agreed, I’m stunned we have Drake over, say, Pitlick. Drake would be equally effective playing with a ringette stick.

  118. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Someone called me a Erik Karlsson truther.

    That’s because I looked at his contribution to the goal share and his deployment and figured “that’s a big bet that has a good chance of not paying off”

    I’m a big believer in “its what you create minus what you give up”

    Karlsson creates a ton, but he gives up a lot and does it while not playing against the best.

    Last 4 years:

    Karlsson Relative Team Goal Share. (team goal share with him on/off)
    Player Season Rel GF%
    Erik Karlsson 14/15 2.86
    Erik Karlsson 15/16 -1.45
    Erik Karlsson 16/17 5.7
    Erik Karlsson 17/18 -1.2

    So 2 of the last 4 years OTT was actually better off with him off the ice. Huh. Injuries are a bitch.

    Karlsson Relative Team mate Goal Share (total of the WOWY weighted by TOI)

    This is where the rubber hits the road imo:

    Player Season RelT GF%
    Erik Karlsson 14/15 1.85
    Erik Karlsson 15/16 3.09
    Erik Karlsson 16/17 7.15
    Erik Karlsson 17/18 -2.36

    15/16 is very good.

    16/17 is unworldly

    17/18 is not good.

    OTT players (as a group) see their GF% drop with Karlsson last year.

    I’d be very, very leary about signing him for a long time.

    17/18 might be blip on a long career, but if I was a GM who had to give a ~$70MM contract to this player it would give me serious pause.

    Also,

    Karlsson wasn’t playing “the toughs” either.

    He’s a lot like Burns.

    Burns plays 2nd pair and gets a ton of easier ice like Karlsson.

    Norris trophy winner Burns was also a career < 50% GF when not with Thornton when he won that award.

    Thornton. He has made other players about $250MM I think.

    Also,

    Vlasic/Braun play the best in SJS while Burns gets some freedom.

    Ceci played toughs with Phaneuf (lordy) or rookie Chabot (LORDY) or Boroweicki (LORDY!!!!!!).

    Poor guy.

    That freed Karlsson for easier ice and better results (which was the correct decision)

    I like Karlsson and "easy minute RHD who drives play vs other than toughs" is a spot that is open on EDM.

    But to pay a ton for him isn't a rock solid bet.

    It might pay off or it might not.

    Its not the slam dunk it appears to be imo.

    I'd still love him as EDM 2RD.

    That would be awesome.

    You’d still need Larsson as 1RD because you still have to keep the other guys from scoring.

  119. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: I wish the coach had a realistic opinion of him.The coach has been hurting Drake’s career by giving him top 6 minutes.He’s not a top 6 player.

    If Drake is willing to do anything that he needs the coach to help him realize what it took Cogliano a few years to realize – he’s not going to be a top 6 player and he needs to work on the skills that will make him effective as a bottom 6 player (responsible, tenacious, PK, etc.).

    It’s settled – Tenacious D

  120. Scungilli Slushy says:

    For recent teams that repeated Cups, their top D was dominant two ways IMO. Pens got by with a struggling or missing Letang, but L.A., Hawks and when Wings were winning they had elite defensive D that also scored well.

    Karlsson is great but for me not , Lidstrom, Doughty, or Keith in his prime. For a team with a Hedman left side sure, but the Oilers best defensive D is also a righty. Maybe Nurse some day but not yet.

    Of course I don’t value high offense lower defense D as much as most. I prefer a group of cheaper D that are two way because of the cap and how often D get hurt and how it impacts careers.

    It’s nice to win a cup, I prefer getting the shot year in and out for as long s possible, there is so much luck involved with hockey, and the Oilers have the best forward there is for the foreseeable future.

  121. Scungilli Slushy says:

    frjohnk:
    If Drai for Karlsson is a no go for most people, how bad is the Hall Larsson swap?

    It makes no sense because it was a sideburns trade not a hockey trade IMO, likely heavily mandated by guys with red stained teeth

  122. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    For recent teams that repeated Cups, their top D was dominant two ways IMO. Pens got by with a struggling or missing Letang, but L.A., Hawks and when Wings were winning they had elite defensive D that also scored well.

    Karlsson is great but for me not , Lidstrom, Doughty, or Keith in his prime. For a team with a Hedman left side sure, but the Oilers best defensive D is also a righty. Maybe Nurse some day but not yet.

    Of course I don’t value high offense lower defense D as much as most. I prefer a group of cheaper D that are two way because of the cap and how often D get hurt and how it impacts careers.

    It’s nice to win a cup, I prefer getting the shot year in and out for as long s possible, there is so much luck involved with hockey, and the Oilers have the best forward there is for the foreseeable future.

    WG nails it with facts, what a beauty you is

  123. Row Dog says:

    I know this is a superficial thing, but, I really hope they go back to the blue jerseys. These orange ones are atrocious! The best player in the world shouldn’t be skating around in that GD jersey.

    Speaking of jerseys, I miss when the home team wore white. I found it more interesting to see the away teams in a variety of different colours.

    I am an Ontario Oilers’ fan and stumbled on this forum a few month ago. I’m glad I did. Thanks Lowetide and contributors.

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    We don’t have Pitlick because he was hurt so often that he couldn’t play enough games to continue being an RFA and he became a Group IV UFA and then Dallas offered him a 3 year contract which Pitlick himself acknowledged blew him away as he was simply hoping a team would offer a one-way deal.

  125. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    Ancient History:

    Sather didn’t choose to trade Coffey and Coffey didn’t turn down the an offer for equity in a project for a weekly pay cheque.

    Coffey sat in the dressing room while the team was celebrating a Stanley Cup victory and stated: “That’s the last game I play for the oilers’. Really knocked the edge off my Stanley glow.

    The story I heard was that the team was not playing to standard so Sather lit into Gretzky and Coffey big time. If you chastise the best forward and the best defenseman in the world the whole team gets the message. As the story goes Gretzky said I’ll show you and did. Coffey said I’ll show you and did but also said I’ll never play for you again.

    Recent History:

    I think Bouchard not playing in Europe has more to do with the NHL-CHL agreement than his contract with the Knights.

    When Yakupov wanted to play in Europe during the lockout (his rookie season) noises were made that he couldn’t go because of his CHL contract. Court action was threatened and the CHL relented. One of the rumors was that they relented because the CHL contract was signed when he was a minor.

    With Bouchard under Oiler control he has to go where he is assigned and the Oilers are under contract to send him back to the CHL if he doesn’t make the team.

    If I remember correctly, minors can’t be held to contracts they sign and if their parents signed them the minor can repudiate the contract when they reach majority. Now that is a memory from a business law class I had to take in the early 70’s so one of the lawyers here can correct me if I am wrong.

  126. Scungilli Slushy says:

    There are only a handful of true elite D in the league in any season. Teams win with them and without them.

    What really drives playoff success is real depth, resourceful coaching, having game breakers,Lady Luck and health. Hit the easy button.

    The Oilers are in a good position if they don’t get stupid again. I’m so sure they won’t.

  127. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    We don’t have Pitlick because he was hurt so often that he couldn’t play enough games to continue being an RFA and he became a Group IV UFA and then Dallas offered him a 3 year contract which Pitlick himself acknowledged blew him away as he was simply hoping a team would offer a one-way deal.

    The OIlers didn’t offer him a contract when they were the only team that could offer him one. They offered an inferior player twice the money instead, and a duration they probably would not have had
    to offer Pitlick.

  128. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    We don’t have Pitlick because he was hurt so often that he couldn’t play enough games to continue being an RFA and he became a Group IV UFA and then Dallas offered him a 3 year contract which Pitlick himself acknowledged blew him away as he was simply hoping a team would offer a one-way deal.

    Why wait all that time for a second round pick and not give him the three years though, that number is burieable in the minors or he gets claimed on waivers.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    A 3-year contract for a soon to be 26 year old that hasn’t played 60 NHL games and hasn’t been able to play 40 games in a season for 3 straight years? That contract by Dallas is a huge stretch.

    Lets not get ahead of ourselves on Pitlick here. I like the player but he had one more goal than Drake last year and his Corsi Rel, GF% Rel and xGF% Rel were all in the negative.

  130. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Someone called me a Erik Karlsson truther.

    That’s because I looked at his contribution to the goal share and his deployment and figured “that’s a big bet that has a good chance of not paying off”

    I’m a big believer in “its what you create minus what you give up”

    Karlsson creates a ton, but he gives up a lot and does it while not playing against the best.

    Last 4 years:

    Karlsson Relative Team Goal Share.(team goal share with him on/off)
    PlayerSeasonRel GF%
    Erik Karlsson14/152.86
    Erik Karlsson15/16-1.45
    Erik Karlsson16/175.7
    Erik Karlsson17/18-1.2

    So 2 of the last 4 years OTT was actually better off with him off the ice. Huh.Injuries are a bitch.

    Karlsson Relative Team mate Goal Share (total of the WOWY weighted by TOI)

    This is where the rubber hits the road imo:

    PlayerSeasonRelT GF%
    Erik Karlsson14/151.85
    Erik Karlsson15/163.09
    Erik Karlsson16/177.15
    Erik Karlsson17/18-2.36

    15/16 is very good.

    16/17 is unworldly

    17/18 is not good.

    OTT players (as a group) see their GF% drop with Karlsson last year.

    I’d be very, very leary about signing him for a long time.

    17/18 might be blip on a long career, but if I was a GM who had to give a ~$70MM contract to this player it would give me serious pause.

    Also,

    Karlsson wasn’t playing “the toughs” either.

    He’s a lot like Burns.

    Burns plays 2nd pair and gets a ton of easier ice like Karlsson.

    Norris trophy winner Burns was also a career < 50% GF when not with Thornton when he won that award.

    Thornton.He has made other players about $250MM I think.

    Also,

    Vlasic/Braun play the best in SJS while Burns gets some freedom.

    Ceci played toughs with Phaneuf (lordy) or rookie Chabot (LORDY) or Boroweicki (LORDY!!!!!!).

    Poor guy.

    That freed Karlsson for easier ice and better results (which was the correct decision)

    I like Karlsson and “easy minute RHD who drives play vs other than toughs” is a spot that is open on EDM.

    But to pay a ton for him isn’t a rock solid bet.

    It might pay off or it might not.

    Its not the slam dunk it appears to be imo.

    I’d still love him as EDM 2RD.

    That would be awesome.

    You’d still need Larsson as 1RD because you still have to keep the other guys from scoring.

    All this may be true, but his playoff performance two years ago was out of this world. I would love to get Karlsson, but I wouldn’t trade Drai straight up, even if he’s signed. And I’m not giving up much for an unsigned Karlsson. Certainly not RNH.

  131. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    That’s why we give players a year to fully recover after undergoing major surgery. Look at Sekera after his surgery. He also delayed his offseason training and started his season a bit late and it’s hard to catch up on missed offseason training.
    Team was an absolute tire fire as well.
    The truth about Karlsson is a healthy cost control Karlsson would be a dream for this team with giving Larson and him the Burns Vlasic treatment. The player is truly one of the dynamic players in this league and Mcdavid and Karlsson on the ice together would be one of those stories old Lowetide would tell to his grandchildren.

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    We don’t need Karlsson on the ice with McDavid when he have Nurse.

    Nurse/McDavid at 5 on 5:

    541 min
    53% CF
    56% FF
    71% GS

    McDavid drops to 50% goal share in 800 minutes without Nurse.

  133. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    If I were the HC ands had McDavid and Karlsson I would try to keep them apart so that for ~90% of 5v5 time I’d have either McDavid or Karlsson on the ice.

    Also,

    Agreed that it’s way too early to know if 1.5 ankles of Karlsson is the same as 2.

    It certainly adds uncertainty to the bet.

  134. rickithebear says:

    WG:
    You were not a Karlsson truther for years.
    In fact I remember your disdain for “Off d ( rovers) are OFFENSIVE”

    I have screen captures of Off dmens futility that I posted on other blogs that date back 5-7 years ago.

    There are clear high ratio affects that must be structured and played a certain way to be cup competitive and championship successful.

    As Daryl Sutter said “ we are turning them into robots.”

    Rovers do not belong in that cup success structure.

    Except when they are partnered with an Elite HD dmen who can cover 1D-1G allowing them to potentially shine in the playoffs.
    Orpik
    Hjarlmasson
    Chara
    Martin

    You better have a 4-5M elite 1-1 HD dman to cover for that 8-11M rover.

  135. rickithebear says:

    You can see strong Evga from a 2 rover pair.
    Who by type will transition pass a lot more and skate the puck up less.
    Causing thier structure and zone minutes to be more 2-1.
    A lot less rover.
    Puck in superior forward pocession than when the are rovers.

    Should look at Keith’s 13-14 to 16-17 seasons and see who his +ve unit Goal differential counts are with.
    Then look at 17-18.

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