Money Changes Everything

As training camp edges nearer, we are getting the fun stories (“McDavid wants to score more goals!”) and the not fun stories (“Andrej Sekera is out indefinitely”) and now, as we reach September, fresh stories with new angles. In the words of the great songwriter Paul McCartney, we’re getting closer, my salamander.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

People keep wondering about the holdup but I think this contract writes itself. Edmonton is going to sign Nurse to a bridge deal (two years times $3-3.25 million) and that’s going make money to tight to mention. The Oilers could get to $4 million with Nurse and that would help them get right to the cap outer marker—I believe this to be the case if they’re attempting to LTIR Sekera and acquire Justin Faulk. It might look like this.

PROJECTED 2018-19 ROSTER

It certainly could be the plan, we’ll have to wait and see. Peter Chiarelli can go to camp, hope someone (Evan Bouchard, Ethan Bear) grabs the No. 6 slot with fine play, and then the defense becomes less of an issue. A guess? Justin Faulk is an Oiler shortly after the team lands back in North America after the opener in Europe. We discussed this over a week ago.

AUGUST 2017 RE (2017-18)

I had someone tell me yesterday that my RE’s are accurate and the answer is “not really” based on last season. I got close on Connor McDavid, but the overall thrust (I had 257-208, Oilers were 229-262) missed by many. The previous season, 2016-17, I predicted 226-226 and the team delivered 243-207. As much fun as projecting team scoring can be, definitely nothing you should bet money on. I haven’t published this year’s RE but have the final projection. It is shy of last year’s projection.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning on the show, we have some fluidity in the guest list. It starts at 10, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Travis Yost, TSN. One of my favourite guests, it’s been to long. We’ll chat about the upcoming NHL season and two teams (Chicago, Detroit) in new circumstances.
  • John Horn, Freelance Commentator, Reporter, Producer with ESPN, WTA, MLB Network, TSN. Sloane Stephens is off to a fabulous start at The U.S. Open, we’ll chat about it at 10:40.
  • Andrew Peard, Oil Kings PBP. We’ll chat about the Oil Kings and a promising season ahead.
  • Matt Barrows, The Athletic. Is this the year the San Fransisco 49er’s make it all the way back?

Text 10-1260, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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130 Responses to "Money Changes Everything"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    I wonder what the deal with Nick Shore is and why he is still unsigned.

    I’m thinking he’s holding out for a multi-year contract but that is a pure guess.

    For me, I’d rather have him than Upshall (although I’m thinking Upshall will be good in the room – a Hendricks type).

    I would even sign Shore to an $800K contract – no need for a PTO.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    McDavid seemingly decided that he wanted to score more goals down the stretch last season.

    He finished the season at 1.34 G/60 at 5 on 5 but, for the last 20 games of the season, he was scoring goals at a rate of 2.15 G/60 and 2.3 G/60 in the last 10 games.

    I remain convinced that, if McDavid wants to win the Rocket Richard, McDavid will win the Rocket Richard.

  3. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    McDavid seemingly decided that he wanted to score more goals down the stretch last season.

    He finished the season at 1.34 G/60 at 5 on 5 but, for the last 20 games of the season, he was scoring goals at a rate of 2.15 G/60 and 2.3 G/60 in the last 10 games.

    I remain convinced that, if McDavid wants to win the Art Ross, McDavid will win the Art Ross.

    And the Richard Trophy too!

  4. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    McDavid seemingly decided that he wanted to score more goals down the stretch last season.

    He finished the season at 1.34 G/60 at 5 on 5 but, for the last 20 games of the season, he was scoring goals at a rate of 2.15 G/60 and 2.3 G/60 in the last 10 games.

    I remain convinced that, if McDavid wants to win the Art Ross, McDavid will win the Art Ross.

    I think you mean the Maurice Richard. He already won the Art Ross twice, and barring injury, he should win it easily for the next 5 years.

  5. J-Bo says:

    If they do trade for Faulk, the defense starts to look pretty good:

    Klef- Larsson
    Nurse – Faulk
    Russell- Benning
    Jerabek – Gravel

    Even if they lose one of Benning, Jerabek, or Gravel (hopefully not Benning), it is still a pretty balanced defense and should easily push Bear and Bouchard out. Without a Faulk trade… the odds are high that Bouchard sticks around for half a season or more.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    What is interesting is that both Gravel and Jarabek played mainly the right side for LA and MTL, respectively. Now, I don’t know if they are less effective on their off side (like most d-men are), however, its an interesting piece of knowledge for me when looking at potential defence pairings.

    For the Habs, it seems Jarabek played mainly 2nd pairing on his off-side with a middling partners (Benn) and fared pretty well by the possession metrics.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    So, how do we deal with Faulk’s close to $5M and Sekera’s $5.5M for cap compliance on day 1 of the 2019/20 season.

    We will also need to sign a starting goaltender, possibly Nurse to another contract, a raise for Khaira, potentially a raise for Aberg, a raise for Jesse (even after taking in to account a bonus cushion of around $1M), etc.

  8. J-Bo says:

    If Bouchard does stick and they don’t trade for Faulk, the only sensible way to run the defense is:

    Klef – Larsson
    Nurse – Benning
    Russell – Bouchard

    You can’t run Jerabek or Gravel with Bouchard in my opinion. The more I look at it, the more the Sekera injury sucks and the more they need to make a Faulk trade.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: And the Richard Trophy too!

    Ooops, that’s what I meant.

  10. Wilde says:

    It’s not easy, but it’s simple to not mess this Bouchard thing up.

    Just do the simple thing, and I know it’s not easy.

  11. J-Bo says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    So, how do we deal with Faulk’s close to $5M and Sekera’s $5.5M for cap compliance on day 1 of the 2019/20 season.

    We will also need to sign a starting goaltender, possibly Nurse to another contract, a raise for Khaira, potentially a raise for Aberg, a raise for Jesse (even after taking in to account a bonus cushion of around $1M), etc.

    As discussed previously, it appears troublesome but should be able to be overcome fairly easily. A Russell trade for sure. If we trade for Faulk without including Benning and Sekera comes back, there is no room for Russell and I think he could easily be dealt (maybe not if this blogs commentors were NHL GM’s, but in the real world for sure). Nurse will not sign a one year deal. Virtually no chance. Pulju will sign a bridge at good value if needed. The rest you mentioned is fairly inconsequential and the cap is likely to go up some. While there might be legitimate cap concerns in trading for Faulk, it should in no way stop Chiarelli from pulling the trigger if a good deal for him presents itself.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    J-Bo:
    If they do trade for Faulk, the defense starts to look pretty good:

    Klef- Larsson
    Nurse – Faulk
    Russell- Benning
    Jerabek – Gravel

    Even if they lose one of Benning, Jerabek, or Gravel (hopefully not Benning), it is still a pretty balanced defense and should easily push Bear and Bouchard out. Without a Faulk trade… the odds are high that Bouchard sticks around for half a season or more.

    Except that, to me, Faulk has been nowhere near a 2nd pairing d-man at even strength recently. He’s barely a 3rd pairing d-man at even strength. I only saw 4 (I think) Carolina games last year and he was absolutely awful at even strength in all of them, in his own zone.

    By memory, I think he had 12 even strength points last year. He has become a 3rd pairing (at best) d-man and PP specialist.

    I think he may make the team worse at even strength.

  13. jtblack says:

    LT, how come we have to wait til after the first game to acquire Faullk? I know it has to do with the Cap and LTIR for Sekera, but not exactly sure how it works?

    As the defence stands right now, we are in trouble. It may be able to get by, but will deliver next to no Offense as is. I know Faulk has some questionable fancies, but I am on board with bringing him on for 1 year.

  14. J-Bo says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Sorry. The goalie issue is not inconsequential. I see them losing Koskinen and going back to a cheap back up if they resign Talbot or another starter to more money.

  15. Side says:

    Wilde:
    It’s not easy, but it’s simple to not mess this Bouchard thing up.

    Just do the simple thing, and I know it’s not easy.

    I may have missed your thoughts on this before, but what’s your idea on what the simple thing is?

    Just keep Bouchard down in the minors? Give him the 9 games and then send him down?

  16. J-Bo says:

    OriginalPouzar: Except that, to me, Faulk has been nowhere near a 2nd pairing d-man at even strength recently.He’s barely a 3rd pairing d-man at even strength.I only saw 4 (I think) Carolina games last year and he was absolutely awful at even strength in all of them, in his own zone.

    By memory, I think he had 12 even strength points last year. He has become a 3rd pairing (at best) d-man and PP specialist.

    I think he may make the team worse at even strength.

    Faulk is not ideal but is much better then the alternative. He may actually fit very well with Nurse too and have greater success at even strength. It also gives options as we could move Benning to second pair with a Russell Faulk third pairing or move Russell up to second pair and play Faulk with Gravel if need be. It would give balance and depth to the defense that the Oilers won’t have this year otherwise.

  17. jtblack says:

    RNH finished the year with 17 points in his last 16 games.

    I do think a full year with McD will produce a 75+ point season for RNH.

    We wait.

  18. Melvis says:

    J-Bo: there is no room for Russell and I think he could easily be dealt (maybe not if this blogs commentors were NHL GM’s, but in the real world for sure).

    The certainty with which you’ve posited this opinion is absolutely breathtaking. If I’m Russell at the age of 31, essentially realistic about future career prospects and looking at 2 more years at 8mil – in the real world, I’m saying a deal is a deal. No way. End of story.

  19. Jordan says:

    J-Bo: Faulk is not ideal but is much better then the alternative. He may actually fit very well with Nurse too and have greater success at even strength. It also gives options as we could move Benning to second pair with a Russell Faulk third pairing or move Russell up to second pair and play Faulk with Gravel if need be. It would give balance and depth to the defense that the Oilers won’t have this year otherwise.

    Faulk’s even-strength defensive-play resulted in a -1.8 Goals above replacement using Sean Tierny’s calculations for the past season. This mean his EVD was SO BAD he caused 1.8 goals more than a replacement level player.

    EVERY existing Oilers defender had a better EVD rating than Faulk – even Russel’s -0.40 was better than Faulks. by almost a goal and a half.

    And people here complain about Russel’s defense ALL THE TIME.

    I would question whether trading Lucic for Faulk straight up is a good plan right now, and I Hate that contract.

    There is no way I would trade for faulk without Carolina taking a poison pill back.

    He’s not an NHL calibre defenseman, and he could only make our defense worse.

    Better to keep the cheap player we have – at least they may be able to play defense.

  20. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack:
    LT, how come we have to wait til after the first game to acquire Faullk? I know it has to do with the Cap and LTIR for Sekera, but not exactly sure how it works?

    As the defence stands right now, we are in trouble.It may be able to get by, but will deliver next to no Offense as is.I know Faulk has some questionable fancies, but I am on board with bringing him on for 1 year.

    LTIR cap relief is there so you replace players that are injured with that cap money. Its kind of tricky. Think of it this way. First day of the season everyone counts even injured people, you dont get to place replacements for those injured people until there is some games. So day one of the season Sekera fully counts against the cap and you must be cap compliant, only then can you assign him LTIR and use his cap hit for cap relief. So on day one of the season you can put Sekera on LTIR and then use his cap hit to bring in Faulk. No sooner. But even if Sekera remains injured indefinitely he still counts on day 1 of next season so you cant keep Faulk for his replacement.

  21. Wonder Llama says:

    I was going to llist some possible music choices for the RE series but I think I’ll trust our host’s excellent taste.

    Besides, breakfast is cooking and I need to get back to the egg.

  22. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Jordan,

    – This isn’t really directed at you, because many are guilty of it I feel

    – When looking at a players numbers: they are confidently that they translate well to another team. In other words: the numbers give many a real sense of confidence of who that player is

    – I don’t believe this is true: taking numbers about what a D does on a team with 4 other players on it and a goalie, and summarizing that this D is “therefore top-4” as an example, just doesn’t work

    – The team, how the team is playing, the D partner, the rest of the team, the system, what the D is being asked to do, etc matter a lot

    – What all but the best D do on one team, I am always biased that the outcome on another team depends far more on all these other factors than their numbers on a given team

    – Pronger as an example as being a stud wherever he was, and Fayne being an example of a D who was fine in one team and not so much on another: same player, different 5×5 numbers

    – It’s not that the numbers that are used are wrong: rather they are very limited in scope when projecting from one team to another IMO.

    – So re: Faulk (who I don’t want us to get): I think his team sucked, and he wasn’t used properly, and the system wasn’t very good. Another team could use Faulk differently and expect different (better) results. Jultz was the same…You can’t just pull us 5×5 numbers and be categoric IMO.

  23. pts2pndr says:

    J-Bo: Faulk is not ideal but is much better then the alternative. He may actually fit very well with Nurse too and have greater success at even strength. It also gives options as we could move Benning to second pair with a Russell Faulk third pairing or move Russell up to second pair and play Faulk with Gravel if need be. It would give balance and depth to the defense that the Oilers won’t have this year otherwise.

    So a third pairing Faulk is worth 5.5. There is no way that Faulk is a certainty to make your team better!
    There is also the matter of what the Canes would want for compensation. The only way this would make sense for the Oil is if Carolina was to send their first or second round draft choice with nothing going the other way!

  24. Darth Tu says:

    If there was a move for Faulk, I guess the only way we’re making the cap work for 2019-20 is either a buyout or trade of Sekera, Russell, or Faulk at the end of the year. After two lost years of injury for Sekera he’s probably the favourite to go, real shame as I love what he brought to the team when healthy.

    I’m not sure I’m completely sold on Faulk as the answer though. I’m purely basing this on the eyeball test, but of the games I watched Carolina in (admittedly not many), Faulk looked to be a step or so off the pace and not quite as crisp with his passing as in previous years. Suffering from the Lucic mental block perhaps?

    That being said – and I’m not sure how this would work – if there’s a way for Carolina to retain some of Faulk’s cap hit in any potential trade I’d consider a couple of years of Faulk at $2.5-3 mill, especially if he’s doing it as a 3rd pairing powerplay specialist.

    All that said, Cody Franson could probably do the same specialist job for $800k- 1 mill for one year.

  25. HT Joe says:

    Sorry for the thread jack, but Woodguy posted on the previous thread, and I was hoping to pose a question:

    “Woodguy v2.0:
    In 15/16 non McDavid or Hall Oilers got 33.9% of the goals.
    In 16/17 non McDavid got 48.9%.Mostly due to good health of the Dmen.
    In 17/18 non McDavid got 42%.Mostly due to bad Dman health and a bit due to lack of scoring wingers.”

    I’m asking because I’ve heard similar facts in the past, but I’m curious… in 15/16 Hall and McDavid didn’t play much together, so when McDavid was healthy, this looks like the Oiler’s other 2 lines got killed (maybe this assumption is already wrong).

    Is it possible to determine how much of the 48.9% vs. 42% was the result of the 3rd and 4th lines getting killed (to frame it a different way, were the 3rd and 4th lines comparable in both years, but was the 2nd line just getting killed more in 17/18 than in 16/17)?

    Getting an answer to this may better answer if the Oilers were helped or hurt by having RNH anchoring the 2nd line (with Draisatl as McDavid’s winger) or the other way around.

  26. PennersPancakes says:

    Darth Tu: All that said, Cody Franson could probably do the same specialist job for $800k- 1 mill for one year.

    Way lower risk, similar reward (?). Small sample size but looking at the numbers Franson did pretty decent when he was actually playing in Chicago.

  27. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Except that, to me, Faulk has been nowhere near a 2nd pairing d-man at even strength recently.He’s barely a 3rd pairing d-man at even strength.I only saw 4 (I think) Carolina games last year and he was absolutely awful at even strength in all of them, in his own zone.

    By memory, I think he had 12 even strength points last year. He has become a 3rd pairing (at best) d-man and PP specialist.

    I think he may make the team worse at even strength.

    I was thinking the same thing, is Faulk going to have a better goal diff than Benning, Russell or Bouchard (if Bouchard shows enough D to stick)?

    I don’t think that’s clear, even unlikely.

    The Gravel and Jerabek signings show a tip of the hand IMO. They now have 3 LD that can play on the right at some level, as opposed to not at all.

    If Bouchard makes the team it’s platoon D. There is enough cover for injuries on RD even if it isn’t established top 4 quality which WG points out is the right play.

    PC rolls ’em again on the season!

    Maybe the Gords smile and everybody plays as well as they should, or better, for a change.

  28. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – When looking at a players numbers: they are confidently that they translate well to another team. In other words: the numbers give many a real sense of confidence of who that player is

    – I don’t believe this is true: taking numbers about what a D does on a team with 4 other players on it and a goalie, and summarizing that this D is “therefore top-4” as an example, just doesn’t work

    – The team, how the team is playing, the D partner, the rest of the team, the system, what the D is being asked to do, etc matter a lot

    – What all but the best D do on one team, I am always biased that the outcome on another team depends far more on all these other factors than their numbers on a given team

    – Pronger as an example as being a stud wherever he was, and Fayne being an example of a D who was fine in one team and not so much on another: same player, different 5×5 numbers

    – It’s not that the numbers that are used are wrong: rather they are very limited in scope when projecting from one team to another IMO.

    – So re: Faulk (who I don’t want us to get): I think his team sucked, and he wasn’t used properly, and the system wasn’t very good. Another team could use Faulk differently and expect different (better) results. Jultz was the same…You can’t just pull us 5×5 numbers and be categoric IMO.

    This is exactly how I feel and one reason why Ricki and I have butted heads over this. A little while back I had looked at Dmen who changed teams and found that some had their on ice numbers and against numbers had changed significantly. Some guys who looked really good in against numbers on one team ( Fayne, Larsson, Jones etc) did not have as good against numbers on another team.

    I dont believe one can rate Dmen from team to team using on ice metrics. Quality of team, linemates, coaching, systems and to a smaller extent quality of competition ( if there is a change in deployment against different tiers) all can have a big effect when players change teams.

    Id love to have access to Sportloqiqs numbers and see if there is a smaller/bigger change in many of the individual stats for players that change teams.

  29. €√¥£€^$ says:

    PennersPancakes: Way lower risk, similar reward (?). Small sample size but looking at the numbers Franson did pretty decent when he was actually playing in Chicago.

    I think a lot of posters, including myself and our fine host are on the Franson train as well. Unfortunately, as in the case of Auvitu, NHL Head coaches simply do not like the Fransons or Auvitus…they have very strong biases and prefer the Russells and the Alzners because….er, em, not sure, I don’t see what they see.

    Serving vanilla ice cream by dump truck, NHL head coaches need players who fit in with their defensive philosophy, but most likely it’s the intangibles like body language, quiet leadership, and the willingness block pucks with their dangling participles….

  30. Westchester Oil says:

    LT mentioned 2 year bridge for Nurse at 3-3.25, unfortunately I think that is a bit optimistic.

    That said, in my dream world, we sign Nurse for 3 years at $3.9 million so that we squeeze under the cap for Day1. Then, Nurse’s next contract won’t expire until 2021 at the same time that Sekera’s and Russell’s contracts expire – which would be a good thing since there’s no guarantee that we could unload either contract without taking a hit.Then, we use Sekera’s LTIR money this year to cover any bonuses and to upgrade the wingers.

    I could handle Faulk for a year, but that extra year on his contract looks too problematic financially plus it wouild likely block one of the 3 ‘B’s’ (Benning, Bouchard, Bear).

  31. Melvis says:

    Off topic regarding cap hits and trades, but I was considering wallet hits, entertainment related trade offs, and premium seating at Rogers Place. The Theatre Box, for example.Seats 4-6 people. It’s around 100k a season. Sounds like a bit much.

    So you go in with 6 people and it’s 16.6k a season. That’s all the Oilers and Oil King home games. 75 games. Now we’re down to about $222.00 a game. Now consider guaranteed playoff seating and all the other events Which knocks it back a bit more. Then you get the food. I don’t know about the bar, but the pregame blunt pretty much puts the kibosh on the booze. For me, anyway.

    Now add in the share with a few of your favourite bro love and like – Edmonton based dudes on this blog. Now also consider the possibility of selling or trading your seat in the event you’re not there for some unforeseen. Then consider, in a similar vein, your networking opportunities when others can’t make it. Then the cherry on the cake for the charitable gift giving option for a disadvantaged or hospitalized kid.

    If I was living in Edmonton, it’s a no brainer. And I didn’t mention taking a date, or arguing with the Woodguy or Bendelson about some nonsense.

    Cheap like borsch compared to a single $700 buck primo seat I was thinking about on one of those games between Oct. 20 through 25.

  32. RedArmy says:

    Everyone seems to think cap hell can be avoided by trading this guy or that guy. I’m of the belief, with expansion looming, gm’s have learned their lessons and won’t be trading for players whose NTC’s will Force them to be protected.

  33. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jordan: Faulk’s even-strength defensive-play resulted in a -1.8 Goals above replacement using Sean Tierny’s calculations for the past season.This mean his EVD was SO BAD he caused 1.8 goals more than a replacement level player.

    EVERY existing Oilers defender had a better EVD rating than Faulk – even Russel’s -0.40 was better than Faulks. by almost a goal and a half.

    And people here complain about Russel’s defense ALL THE TIME.

    I would question whether trading Lucic for Faulk straight up is a good plan right now, and I Hate that contract.

    There is no way I would trade for faulk without Carolina taking a poison pill back.

    He’s not an NHL calibre defenseman, and he could only make our defense worse.

    Better to keep the cheap player we have – at least they may be able to play defense.

    To be fair to Faulk, his goalie was a complete tire fire last year. I’m not letting him off the hook for poor defensive play, but Darling was maybe the worst goalie in the league last year.

  34. Westchester Oil says:

    RedArmy:
    Everyone seems to think cap hell can be avoided by trading this guy or that guy. I’m of the belief, with expansion looming, gm’s have learned their lessons and won’t be trading for players whose NTC’s will Force them to be protected.

    That’s exactly the point I was trying to make with my earlier post. There are no guarantees that we could easily unload any of Russell, Sekera or Faulk’s contracts. Or Lucic’s for that matter.

    The majority of UFA signings don’t end well.

  35. geowal says:

    pts2pndr: So a third pairing Faulk is worth 5.5. There is no way that Faulk is a certainty to make your team better!
    There is also the matter of what the Canes would want for compensation. The only way this would make sense for the Oil is if Carolina was to send their first or second round draft choice with nothing going the other way!

    I have more faith at this point in the new guy from Washington Jerabek than Faulk

  36. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    So, how do we deal with Faulk’s close to $5M and Sekera’s $5.5M for cap compliance on day 1 of the 2019/20 season.

    We will also need to sign a starting goaltender, possibly Nurse to another contract, a raise for Khaira, potentially a raise for Aberg, a raise for Jesse (even after taking in to account a bonus cushion of around $1M), etc.

    Lots of time to solve that problem next spring, it is vital to not sacrifice this season waiting on Sekera who may never get back to the bigs. Trades at the deadline are always a possibility if he heals in time. Faulk would be an overpay for third pairing dman,don’t think it is a realistic deal.

  37. jtblack says:

    HT Joe:
    Sorry for the thread jack, but Woodguy posted on the previous thread, and I was hoping to pose a question:

    “Woodguy v2.0:
    In 15/16 non McDavid or Hall Oilers got 33.9% of the goals.
    In 16/17 non McDavid got 48.9%.Mostly due to good health of the Dmen.
    In 17/18 non McDavid got 42%.Mostly due to bad Dman health and a bit due to lack of scoring wingers.”

    I’m asking because I’ve heard similar facts in the past, but I’m curious… in 15/16 Hall and McDavid didn’t play much together, so when McDavid was healthy, this looks like the Oiler’s other 2 lines got killed (maybe this assumption is already wrong).

    Is it possible to determine how much of the 48.9% vs. 42% was the result of the 3rd and 4th lines getting killed (to frame it a different way, were the 3rd and 4th lines comparable in both years, but was the 2nd line just getting killed more in 17/18 than in 16/17)?

    Getting an answer to this may better answer if the Oilers were helped or hurt by having RNH anchoring the 2nd line (with Draisatl as McDavid’s winger) or the other way around.

    I was in on that discussion. Yes, in 2016 lines 3 & 4 got crushed.

    I don’t believe any other line in 2017 or 2018 had a positive CF% or GF%, that includes RNH in 2017.

    But definitely the total is dragged down by lines 3 & 4. Letestu was a 5×5 black hole last year.

    here’s how I construct my lines and hope for GF% estimate.

    MCADVID – 56%+
    DRAI – 50%+
    STROME – 48%+
    BRODZIAK – 50%+

    This would represent more balance than the Oilers have had in 10 years +

  38. v4ance says:

    Couple of points:

    Carolina is at $60.9 million in cap with the floor being $58.8 million. Trading Faulk’s $4.8 million cap hit would require Carolina to take back a minimum of $2.1 million in cap hit to make the transaction conform to the CBA.

    Russell as a trade piece to Carolina is highly unlikely as it has been strongly rumored, if not confirmed, that Russell signed in Edmonton to specifically stay close to Alberta for family reasons. it is highly unlikely that he’d waive his no move clause to be a piece of a Faulk deal.

    On a good team, McDavid’s goal share should be ~30% with the other three lines contributing 70%. On a bad team, expect the dominant player to pickup ~40% of the goal share with the weaker team surrounding him only contributing 60%. You COULD have an elite player contributing close to 40% of the goals on a playoff team but then it’s all or nothing: if your star goes in a slump or gets hurt, it’s all over. So the preferable model is to have a balanced roster deep with effective players who help carry the load and the goal share so that you can withstand the hit if your star falters a bit.

  39. pts2pndr says:

    geowal: I have more faith at this point in the new guy from Washington Jerabek than Faulk

    I agree and getting Faulk adds another cap hit that is limiting should we have to acquire a forward due to an injury. By not doing it we also may be able to pick up a player placed on waivers!

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nicholson did mention yesterday on Oilers Now that he knows Chiarelli is comfortable with the current roster.

    I am happy about that as I am one that doesn’t want them to go make a major “Sekera-replacement” acquisition that has term on the contract.

    The LTIR rules are what they are and it is not free cap space in perpetuity.

    There are many players to re-sign next off-season, some coming off ELCs and even league minimum contracts.

    We cannot take on cap space for future years that we wouldn’t have prior to Reggie’s new injury.

  41. jtblack says:

    leadfarmer: LTIR cap relief is there so you replace players that are injured with that cap money.Its kind of tricky.Think of it this way.First day of the season everyone counts even injured people, you dont get to place replacements for those injured people until there is some games.So day one of the season Sekera fully counts against the cap and you must be cap compliant, only then can you assign him LTIR and use his cap hit for cap relief.So on day one of the season you can put Sekera on LTIR and then use his cap hit to bring in Faulk.No sooner.But even if Sekera remains injured indefinitely he still counts on day 1 of next season so you cant keep Faulk for his replacement.

    Thank you! makes sense now.

  42. Coiler says:

    I seriously hope Chiarelli doesn’t take a flyer on Faulk. Not at those dollars and not on that term. His assessments on these types of players hasn’t been good at all and at some point you have to have faith in the numbers/stats that support the fact that Faulk is a brutal liability in his own end. Thx but no thx.

    Panic moves are never good ones and this one screams panic.

    Nurse should have been signed, sealed and delivered by now. No reason why there’s been such a delay given how stupidly Chiarelli has been throwing bad money at Gryba, etc..

    Franson is a weird one. He posted pretty decent numbers in Nashville and Toronto (Shit the bed in Buffalo) but has never gotten the respect I think he feels he deserves. He’s someone I’d offer a PTO to and as someone already mentioned, could probably be had for about a million. His numbers for Chicago’s affiliate were like a rock star.

  43. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    “Nicholson did mention yesterday on Oilers Now that he knows Chiarelli is comfortable with the current roster.”

    He was also comfortable with the current roster heading into last season, while many were calling for help on the Blue line and at RW. Sound familiar???

  44. Side says:

    jtblack:
    OriginalPouzar,

    “Nicholson did mention yesterday on Oilers Now that he knows Chiarelli is comfortable with the current roster.”

    He was also comfortable with the current roster heading into last season, while many were calling for help on the Blue line and at RW. Sound familiar???

    It sounds familiar, but the context is different. Do you think this lineup is better, worse, or the same as last year’s opening lineup?

  45. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jtblack:
    OriginalPouzar,

    “Nicholson did mention yesterday on Oilers Now that he knows Chiarelli is comfortable with the current roster.”

    He was also comfortable with the current roster heading into last season, while many were calling for help on the Blue line and at RW. Sound familiar???

    – I’m torn on what to think of this off-season, and what else could/should have been done:

    – We have the same situation where Sek is missing still

    – Nurse and Benning have a year more of experience

    – You have to “hope” that Klef is all better

    – Certainly Larsson’s loss of father is behind him

    – You can’t count on Bouchard/Gravel/Jerabek as anything other than bottom-pair D

    – Who does Russel play with to be an effective pairing (like Sek-Russel 2017 vintage)

    – I think this team is going to be like the Leafs: rely on goal-scoring and coach up the D so that by end of year the D is solid. That’s the opportunity

    – The Sek LTIR leaves the possibility of adding something substantial on D at some point.

  46. jtblack says:

    Side: It sounds familiar, but the context is different.Do you think this lineup is better, worse, or the same as last year’s opening lineup?

    I think the lineup is slightly better. But not playoff bound better. This was a 78 point team last year. It will take a lot more than just “regression to the positive” to hit 94 points …

    The defense just doesn’t seem like it will hold up for me. Combined with an OK forward group and a goalie who is coming off a poor season.

    Just feel like there are a lot more question marks than certainties.
    IF the backup plays well.
    IF JP progresses.
    IF Yammy comes up.
    If Rieder can play Top 6.
    IF Lucic rebounds.
    IF Talbot rebounds.
    IF the D stays healthy.
    IF Klefbom and Larsson return to form.
    IF Leon can saw off @ 2C.
    IF the PP can return to form.
    IF
    IF
    IF

    Now throw all those IF’s against the other Western Conference teams and look at their IF’s.

    NASHVILLE
    WINNIPEG
    VEGAS
    MINNY
    ANAHEIM
    SAN JOSE
    ST.LOUIS
    L.A.
    CGY
    COL
    DAL

    Every team as IF’s heading into a season. And every team is optimistic. But I see a lot LESS IF’s for most of the teams listed.

  47. Side says:

    jtblack,

    I agree. There are still quite a few ifs going into this season. But I think even if some of those ifs turn around this season, this team can make a huge swing into playoff territory.

    I’m just glad this year’s opening roster looks improved over last year’s opening roster. Which is as good as an Oilers fan can hope for with some of the horrible contracts on the team it seems..

  48. digger50 says:

    Side: It sounds familiar, but the context is different.Do you think this lineup is better, worse, or the same as last year’s opening lineup?

    Wow, great question and great excercise to put myself back in last years pre season mind frame.

    Last season I felt we had five of the top six forwards locked down. Solid bets.

    Then a huge number of unknowns. Optimism around Kassian and Sleppy. Satisfied with Letestu . Pessimistic that Strome could replace Eberle and Jussi could add much. Question marks with Jessi, Drake, Khaira

    Felt comfortable in Talbot

    Defence looked pretty good, yet gambling on internal improvement

    This season:

    We have three proven top six players and Loads of unknowns

    Optimistic Jessie, Strome, Kassian, Rieder, Optimistic they do well enough to hold down a position on a winning team

    Pessimistic – Rattie to hold a position. Drake to hold a position. Pontus to hold a position.

    Compete unknown – Lucic, Brodziak. Khaira regresses? Yamamoto impact? Talbot

    Defence I think we are in a more comfortable spot in that more is known about Nurse, Benning. But hard to gauge if we are ahead without Sekera or more ready in regards to depth.

    We can pilfer two really good lines but then get killed with third and fourth line again. We can spread out the talent to hold the fort and hope Connor is the cavalry to win the day.

    Ultimately if you look at each position on the roster, I’m only confident that 60 percent of those roster positions can be filled with a player who will be competent to fill and deliver success at the assigned position.

    I’m also looking at coaching. The coaching blunders last year lost the season and in my opinion lost many of the players in the room. Thus coaching will be a difference this year when assessing where we are at compared to last year. Based on this number one biggest change, I’m suggesting the team is good enough for play offs.

  49. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    So, how do we deal with Faulk’s close to $5M and Sekera’s $5.5M for cap compliance on day 1 of the 2019/20 season.

    We will also need to sign a starting goaltender, possibly Nurse to another contract, a raise for Khaira, potentially a raise for Aberg, a raise for Jesse (even after taking in to account a bonus cushion of around $1M), etc.

    I don’t want to be THAT guy that always disagrees with you, nevertheless…

    You’re assessment of Faulk is based on one bad season. Now he may rebound or he might not, but it’s not like he’s a 33 year old guy with a surgicallly repaired ACL and Achilles’ tendon.

    Sekera’s cap space is available this season on LTIR. We have three top four dmen of which only one can make an outlet pass or run a power play. That one guy is reasonably injury prone.

    I think there’s plenty of impetus to try to salvage this upcoming season by risking that Faulk hasn’t rebounded to previous levels or that his contract won’t be moveable with one year left on it.

    The alternative is to bet on youth or completely unproven dmen. We all know he’s s that works out.

  50. PennersPancakes says:

    digger50: Pessimistic – Rattie to hold a position. Drake to hold a position. Pontus to hold a position.

    I agree with Rattie and Drake. I wish Pontus got more of a chance myself, give him some of the opportunities that Cags couldn’t do anything with.

  51. Bank Shot says:

    PennersPancakes: I agree with Rattie and Drake. I wish Pontus got more of a chance myself, give him some of the opportunities that Cags couldn’t do anything with.

    More of a chance how?

    He played 13:30 at even strength with the Oilers last year and a minute on the PP. That’s about second line minutes.

    His most common linemates were:
    Caggiula-Draisaitl
    Hopkins-Mcdavid

    Seems like he has been given as much chance to succeed as anyone.

  52. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Last season, Faulk played the most dman minutes on the Canes PP. He has for the last four years. Funny enough, the last season that he was second to anyone else was when he played with Sekera. 🙂

    It’s fine to dismiss Faulk as a 3rd pariing PP specialist–especially when the Oilers had the worst power play in the NHL last year. If that’s all he turns out to be, we’re still way ahead of the game having him next season.

    Sure coaching was largely to blame, but so too was losing a healthy Sekera.

    15 – 16 GF/60

    sekera – 7.6
    Klefbomb – 6.4
    Faulk – 6.4

    16-17 GF/60

    sekera – 9.6
    bomb – 7.2
    Faulk – 7.1

    17 – 17

    sekera – 5.1
    bomb – 5.6
    faulk – 7.3
    Benning – 5.6

    Benning has had a few decent years by Oilers standards, but the sample sizes are small (along with the toi/60).

    It’s a big leap to produce at the same rate playing 25 to 50 seconds of PP per game to producing at the same rate for 3 minutes a game over an entire season.

    Either way, if Klefbomb gets injured next season, we’re left with Benning and what Russell? Or Nurse’s 1.5 GF per hour on the PP?

  53. texmex says:

    jtblack: I think the lineup is slightly better.But not playoff bound better.This was a 78 point team last year.It will take a lot more than just “regression to the positive” to hit 94 points …

    The defense just doesn’t seem like it will hold up for me. Combined with an OK forward group and a goalie who is coming off a poor season.

    Just feel like there are a lot more question marks than certainties.IF the backup plays well.
    IF JP progresses.
    IF Yammy comes up.
    If Rieder can play Top 6.
    IF Lucic rebounds.
    IF Talbot rebounds.IF the D stays healthy.IF Klefbom and Larsson return to form.
    IF Leon can saw off @ 2C.
    IF the PP can return to form.
    IF
    IF
    IF

    Now throw all those IF’s against the other Western Conferenceteams and look at their IF’s.

    NASHVILLE
    WINNIPEG
    VEGAS
    MINNY
    ANAHEIM
    SAN JOSE
    ST.LOUIS
    L.A.
    CGY
    COL
    DAL

    Every team as IF’s heading into a season.And every team is optimistic.But I see a lot LESS IF’s for most of the teams listed.

    If my Aunt had balls, she would be my Uncle!!!

  54. Jordan says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Jordan,

    – This isn’t really directed at you, because many are guilty of it I feel

    – When looking at a players numbers: they are confidently that they translate well to another team.In other words: the numbers give many a real sense of confidence of who that player is

    – I don’t believe this is true: taking numbers about what a D does on a team with 4 other players on it and a goalie, and summarizing that this D is “therefore top-4” as an example, just doesn’t work

    – The team, how the team is playing, the D partner, the rest of the team, the system, what the D is being asked to do, etc matter a lot

    – What all but the best D do on one team, I am always biased that the outcome on another team depends far more on all these other factors than their numbers on a given team

    – Pronger as an example as being a stud wherever he was, and Fayne being an example of a D who was fine in one team and not so much on another: same player, different 5×5 numbers

    – It’s not that the numbers that are used are wrong: rather they are very limited in scope when projecting from one team to another IMO.

    – So re: Faulk (who I don’t want us to get): I think his team sucked, and he wasn’t used properly, and the system wasn’t very good.Another team could use Faulk differently and expect different (better) results.Jultz was the same…You can’t just pull us 5×5 numbers and be categoric IMO.

    Hey Kinger,

    I think you bring up some really significant weaknesses of using this kind of analysis. I expect the results that Faulk or Slavin or Hannafin had last year would definitely be different on another team. In my mind, this is a given.

    Maybe it is unfair of me to compare those numbers between teams. Maybe I am talking about apples and oranges, and doing so doesn’t show the full picture of the player.

    I hope that people look into my numbers and my arguments. I hope they think about, question it, and try to prove me wrong. Doing so raises the quality of dialogue here, and the overall knowledge base of the fan base.. After all, this isn’t about being right – its about discussing ideas.

    I am quite happy to make questionable or perhaps even disingenuous arguments if it helps move society away from ad-hominem attacks towards thoughtful dialogue.

    At least until I see an opportunity to be a dink that I can’t pass up. =P

  55. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Ryan,

    – I agree that the season is in dire straights if sub-100% for Klef/Larsson/Nurse > 30 games total

  56. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    RNH finished the year with 17 points in his last 16 games.

    I do think a full year with McD will produce a 75+ point season for RNH.

    We wait.

    I’m just hoping he finally hits 50

  57. Bank Shot says:

    I’ll be happy if Hopkins can finally hit 60 points.

    He’s played full seasons with Hall-Eberle on his wings and never been able to do it.

    70 seems like a stretch but I would take it.

  58. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Jordan: Hey Kinger,

    I think you bring up some really significant weaknesses of using this kind of analysis.I expect the results that Faulk or Slavin or Hannafin had last year would definitely be different on another team. In my mind, this is a given.

    Maybe it is unfair of me to compare those numbers between teams.Maybe I am talking about apples and oranges, and doing so doesn’t show the full picture of the player.

    I hope that people look into my numbers and my arguments.I hope they think about, question it, and try to prove me wrong.Doing so raises the quality of dialogue here, and the overall knowledge base of the fan base..After all, this isn’t about being right – its about discussing ideas.

    I am quite happy to make questionable or perhaps even disingenuous arguments if it helps move society away from ad-hominem attacks towards thoughtful dialogue.

    At least until I see an opportunity to be a dink that I can’t pass up.=P

    – Hey I don’t disagree with any of your numbers per se. I also don’t think you are being disingenuous

    – The numbers “may” provide clues, and in the proper context have the value one chooses to assign to them in terms of confidence (not very much for me, but hey, I’m a dink too!)

    – Given what little we have in terms of data, and given none of us know what we are talking about, and none have working crystal balls: its fun to speculate what so and so looks like on a different team, with different teammates, in different roles, in different situations with different systems

    – So your numbers at least frame things that we can agree or disagree with those numbers

  59. PennersPancakes says:

    Bank Shot,

    Looks like I’m mistaken, thanks for the correction! I didn’t realize he had that many minutes with the big 3.

    Sometimes it looks like hes not seen as a legitimate option by fans and maybe that’s why I assumed less of a chance. Also the few games he got benched but that seems to be a different/valid reason.

    In the short stint he had here he put up good numbers and I thought he looked decent to the eye test. His time to shine up is now as hes turning 25 but I believe theres a chance of a middle 6 player there.

  60. Richard S.S. says:

    If Mcdavid’s Line scores more than 350 points, Oilers are in the playoffs. If they just score a pedestrian 300 points or more, the Oilers are still in the playoffs. The next two lines should do that well or better, meaning anything from fourth line and the D is just gravy.

  61. jm363561 says:

    Seems to be a day when others are posting comments that I totally agree with but are rarely made:

    “I’m just hoping he (RNH) finally hits 50”.

    “Cody Franson could probably do the same .. as Faulk .. specialist job for $800k- 1 mill for one year.”

    “The team, how the team is playing, the D partner, the rest of the team, the system, what the D is being asked to do, etc matter a lot.”

    “EVERY existing Oilers defender had a better EVD rating than Faulk – even Russel’s -0.40 was better than Faulks. by almost a goal and a half. And people here complain about Russel’s defense ALL THE TIME.”

    “I think the lineup is slightly better. But not playoff bound better. This was a 78 point team last year. It will take a lot more than just “regression to the positive” to hit 94 points …The defense just doesn’t seem like it will hold up for me. Just feel like there are a lot more question marks than certainties. IF IF IF”.

  62. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m just hoping he finally hits 50

    I hear you. RNH gets a lot of love from Oilers Nation. He’s been steady over the years, but certainly not #1 level results.

    If he gets 75% of his time on 97’s left wing; he hits 75 points. That’s more a testament to 97 than 93.

    It’s amazing what a player can do when they aren’t the focal point or expected to drive the bus. that’s were I think 93 will flourish. he can just go play and doesn’t have to be the Franchise Saviour like his first few years and he also doesn’t have to play the shutdown / toughs role of the last few years. He can just go score goals and have a little defensive conscience.

  63. jtblack says:

    Bank Shot:
    I’ll be happy if Hopkins can finally hit 60 points.

    He’s played full seasons with Hall-Eberle on his wings and never been able to do it.

    70 seems like a stretch but I would take it.

    +1.

    Last year RNH had 48 points in 62 games. That pro rates to 63 points over 82. and he only played with Connor for about 20 games.

    so without any lift; if he plays 82 games and spends 3/4 of his time with 97; General math says he should hit 65 points. If they leave off where they did last year, then 75 ish is not out of the question.

    go RNH

  64. Ryan says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Ryan,

    – I agree that the season is in dire straights if sub-100% for Klef/Larsson/Nurse> 30 games total

    Well, betting on a Jerabek or Benning to take a step forward is a bad plan when you’ve missed the playoffs 2 out of the last three seasons.

    If the Oilers incur a significant injury to anyone of Nurse, Kbomb, or Larsson, it’s like a knocking a leg off a three-legged table.

    Even if all three stay healthy, it’s not an enviable blue line. If Klefbomb gets injured, I can’t imagine what our PP stats will look like.

    I’m not one to prevaricate here.

    To sewer another McDavid season would be a disaster. We’re already flirting with disaster with our blue line.

    If the cost of acquisition is reasonable, Faulk would at the very least provide depth to the power play while nearly certainly being one of our top six best defenseman next season.

  65. pts2pndr says:

    The prority as I see it is to first get Nurse signed. The defense at that time while still unknown s as good as it was and or close to 2016/2017. Then see how the new additions shake out including the two new additions on D and Rieder and Brodziak. Durring training camp a decision can be made as to where the team needs to be shored up. To fix something we are not sure is broken only to find we need a winger seems ill advised! We aren’t sure of much with all the additions not to mention coaching changes! Patience my fellow Oiler fans seems to be the best idea!

  66. Ryan says:

    Jordan: Faulk’s even-strength defensive-play resulted in a -1.8 Goals above replacement using Sean Tierny’s calculations for the past season.This mean his EVD was SO BAD he caused 1.8 goals more than a replacement level player.

    EVERY existing Oilers defender had a better EVD rating than Faulk – even Russel’s -0.40 was better than Faulks. by almost a goal and a half.

    And people here complain about Russel’s defense ALL THE TIME.

    I would question whether trading Lucic for Faulk straight up is a good plan right now, and I Hate that contract.

    There is no way I would trade for faulk without Carolina taking a poison pill back.

    He’s not an NHL calibre defenseman, and he could only make our defense worse.

    Better to keep the cheap player we have – at least they may be able to play defense.

    Faulk had a bad season last year. You can slice or dice it with any fancy stat you like while mostly likely arriving at the same destination. He had a really bad season.

    If you trade for him, you have to have some inclination of a bounce back. (weight, health status, summer training?)

    There’s also the question (which is an interesting one) of his career long poor on ice save percentage. Carolina’s goal tending has been poor, but his on ice SV% is poor enough to convince sane people like Travis Yost that a dman can bend a goalies’ SV percentage.

    Reports indicate that he had attempted to bulk up or something. Watching him playing he looked really slow last year (compared to previous years by my eye).

    Faulk is not a perfect solution really. The only reason that we’re discussing him at all is because of the timing of the Sekera injury… the obvious lack of a suitable UFA or cap space… the likely low cost of acquisition given the roster composition and budget of Carolina… along with obvious speculation that he will get traded. Combine that with the poor return on the Skinner trade and you have a perfect storm.

    Now Faulk’s calling card has never been his ability to defend. If Klefbomb and Larsson click again, maybe you play him on the second pair with Nurse.

    If that doesn’t work, you have your 3rd pairing power play specialist on a pairing with Russell.

  67. Lowetide says:

    Oilers sign Jason Garrison to a PTO, meaning I get to tell my favourite Expos story tomorrow morning.

  68. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    Oilers sign Jason Garrison to a PTO, meaning I get to tell my favourite Expos story tomorrow morning.

    So negotiations with Nurse are not going well.

  69. PinkSocks says:

    Ryan: Well, betting on a Jerabek or Benning to take a step forward is a bad plan when you’ve missed the playoffs 2 out of the last three seasons.

    2 out of the last 3 years is a REALLY nice way to put it 😉

  70. Bank Shot says:

    jtblack: +1.

    Last year RNH had 48 points in 62 games.That pro rates to 63 points over 82.and he only played with Connor for about 20 games.

    so without any lift; if he plays 82 games and spends 3/4 of his time with 97;General math says he should hit 65 points.Ifthey leave off where they did last year, then 75 ish is not out of the question.

    go RNH

    Well he did shoot a career high 15.9% as well so there should be some regression there. I’ll be shocked if RNH gets close to 70 points but it would be welcome.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    J-Bo: As discussed previously, it appears troublesome but should be able to be overcome fairly easily. A Russell trade for sure. If we trade for Faulk without including Benning and Sekera comes back, there is no room for Russell and I think he could easily be dealt (maybe not if this blogs commentors were NHL GM’s, but in the real world for sure). Nurse will not sign a one year deal. Virtually no chance. Pulju will sign a bridge at good value if needed. The rest you mentioned is fairly inconsequential and the cap is likely to go up some. While there might be legitimate cap concerns in trading for Faulk, it should in no way stop Chiarelli from pulling the trigger if a good deal for him presents itself.

    So we are agreed that acquiring the contract would require corresponding moves in the off-season to dispose of cap space.

    We will disagree on the premise as I do not believe this player is worth the additional cap crunch the acquisition would put us in and that is without even taking in to account the assets going out to acquire him.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    LT, how come we have to wait til after the first game to acquire Faullk? I know it has to do with the Cap and LTIR for Sekera, but not exactly sure how it works?

    I’m sure this has been answered but the team has to be compliant with the cap on day 1 of the season. LTIR doesn’t get rid of the player’s cap hit but, if the team is at the cap, it provides a cushion to go over the cap (but not until after they are compliant on day 1).

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    J-Bo:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Sorry. The goalie issue is not inconsequential. I see them losing Koskinen and going back to a cheap back up if they resign Talbot or another starter to more money.

    Just to be clear, it wasn’t me that said the goalie issue is inconsequential.

    I’m one that doesn’t want to take on additional cap for next season due to our existing cap crunch and the requirement to re-sign/sign many players for next season including goalies.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan: Faulk’s even-strength defensive-play resulted in a -1.8 Goals above replacement using Sean Tierny’s calculations for the past season.This mean his EVD was SO BAD he caused 1.8 goals more than a replacement level player.

    EVERY existing Oilers defender had a better EVD rating than Faulk – even Russel’s -0.40 was better than Faulks. by almost a goal and a half.

    And people here complain about Russel’s defense ALL THE TIME.

    I would question whether trading Lucic for Faulk straight up is a good plan right now, and I Hate that contract.

    There is no way I would trade for faulk without Carolina taking a poison pill back.

    He’s not an NHL calibre defenseman, and he could only make our defense worse.

    Better to keep the cheap player we have – at least they may be able to play defense.

    Atta boy – someone else on the same page as me that thinks Faulk could make the team worse at even strength. Yes, he’d be nice on the PP but the contract plus the fact that he is terrible at evens – no go for me.

  75. London Jon says:

    Starting to look very deep in the 7D spot!!

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Westchester Oil:
    LT mentioned 2 year bridge for Nurse at 3-3.25, unfortunately I think that is a bit optimistic.

    That said, in my dream world, we sign Nurse for 3 years at $3.9 million so that we squeeze under the cap for Day1. Then, Nurse’s next contract won’t expire until 2021 at the same time that Sekera’s and Russell’s contracts expire – which would be a good thing since there’s no guarantee that we could unload either contract without taking a hit.Then, we use Sekera’s LTIR money this year to cover any bonuses and to upgrade the wingers.

    I could handle Faulk for a year, but that extra year on his contract looks too problematic financially plus it wouild likely block one of the 3 ‘B’s’ (Benning, Bouchard, Bear).

    On the assumption that expansion goes as planned – prior to the 2020/21 season, I believe there is zero chance that Russell will remain on the team given his NMC. I can’t imagine a scenario where they would protect him in the expansion draft so, if they can’t move him, they’d have to buy him out previously.

    There is zero chance they’d not buy him out and protect him, right?

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    RedArmy:
    Everyone seems to think cap hell can be avoided by trading this guy or that guy. I’m of the belief, with expansion looming, gm’s have learned their lessons and won’t be trading for players whose NTC’s will Force them to be protected.

    If a player is traded to a team, they get to decide of the NTC will continue.

    So, if Russell is traded to a team that isn’t on Russell’s no trade list, clearly that team wouldn’t agree that the clause continues.

    On the other hand, if Russell is waiving his clause to agree to a trade to a team on his list, I would think he would require the acquiring team to agree to continue the clause or he wouldn’t waive.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Lots of time to solve that problem next spring, it is vital to not sacrifice this season waiting on Sekera who may never get back to the bigs. Trades at the deadline are always a possibility if he heals in time. Faulk would be an overpay for third pairing dman,don’t think it is a realistic deal.

    I understand your point but we will disagree on the approach. Sure, this season is “vital” (although I wouldn’t use that word) but, to me, its more important to make smart moves in order to create a contender in 2-3 years and adding a contract that we KNOW is going to cause issues and will require the team to move out cap just to get compliant (and not even improve) is going to give other team’s leverage, etc.

    To me, Faulk isn’t even close to good enough to cover the risk.

  79. hags9k says:

    I’m way behind these days…Can someone clarify for me how Sekera’s injury effects the Nurse negotiations?

    Do we now have freed $ to possibly do a long term deal? (my preference!)
    Or do we need to wait for the season to start to LTIR Rej and therefore it has no impact on a deal done before camp, meaning we are still looking at a bridge?

    Thanks if anyone can smarten me up here.

  80. Bank Shot says:

    Russell would probably be ok with waiving his NMC to go to Seattle. That’s about as close as it gets to Alberta were he apparently wants to stay.
    He has to submit a 10 team list in 2020 so the Oilers have options if he doesn’t play ball.

    Good to see Garrison on a PTO. He can shoot the puck. He’s probably done, but I like to see competition in camp. From about 2007 onwards the Oilers were writing two rookies onto the roster with pen in the offseason then leaving the other holes open for never was players to compete for the last spots.

    I will take has beens over that.

  81. Ryan says:

    hags9k:
    I’m way behind these days…Can someone clarify for me how Sekera’s injury effects the Nurse negotiations?

    Do we now have freed $ to possibly do a long term deal? (my preference!)
    Or do we need to wait for the season to start to LTIR Rej and therefore it has no impact on a deal done before camp, meaning we are still looking at a bridge?

    Thanks if anyone can smarten me up here.

    I’m not the capologist here, but no it doesn’t free up any money today to sign Nurse long term.

    That’s a good question. I don’t think you can use Rej’s LTIR to extend Nurse long term even if you wait for the start of the season to extend nurse.

  82. russ99 says:

    Not too sure Faulk comes here, his NMC kicked in this summer, so he has some say where he goes if Carolina is moving him.

    Chicago is also rumored to be chasing him and they have room to fit him under the cap now, and likely a higher spot in the D rotation than we have to give.

    Also, players likely don’t look at one season whe making these decisions, and if he comes here’s that’s a real nasty NMC/LTIR logjam were looking at next summer when we have to pay Jesse and a goalie. I suspect two at least are on the way out next summer.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: Well, betting on a Jerabek or Benning to take a step forward is a bad plan when you’ve missed the playoffs 2 out of the last three seasons.

    If the Oilers incur a significant injury to anyone of Nurse, Kbomb, or Larsson, it’s like a knocking a leg off a three-legged table.

    Even if all three stay healthy, it’s not an enviable blue line. If Klefbomb gets injured, I can’t imagine what our PP stats will look like.

    I’m not one to prevaricate here.

    To sewer another McDavid season would be a disaster. We’re already flirting with disaster with our blue line.

    If the cost of acquisition is reasonable, Faulk would at the very least provide depth to the power play while nearly certainly being one of our top six best defenseman next season.

    This is year 1 of an 8 year contract for McDavid – of course, we never want to “waste” any years including “McDavid years”, but management needs to remain patient and smart. Another bad move to take on a bad contract (even without material assets going out) has the potential to have an even more egregious effect on the future years than wasting this year would have.

    Taking on Faulk’s contract for next season comes with WAY too much risk for me given his recent level of performance. The cap situation for next off-season may not be any better than this off-season without that contract.

    I agree that Faulk provides PP cover but, given how bad he’s been at evens, I can’t agree that he woudl for sure be one of the top 6 for next season (not with the likes of Bouchard, Bear, Lagesson, Berglund, Jones, etc.) in the picture

  84. leadfarmer says:

    Jason Garrison? But why? Why didn’t we just bring in Davidson?

  85. HT Joe says:

    jtblack: HT Joe

    Thanks for the response.

    You’re predicting Drai at 50%… sorry for my ignorance but do you know whereabouts he was last year? Thanks!!

  86. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I don’t think the Oilers need offensive players as much as guys who can saw off no matter the offense. If they add fantastic.

    It’s GA that hurts them most. Special teams will return to at least average or the coach will be fired and they will go to average. We know current PPs don’t rely on a big D shooter, those days are in the past.

    The additions of competent NHL role players will make a big difference IMO. Rieder, Upshall, Brodziak.

    Garrison to me seems more like a favour than a helpful option. If he’s willing to play in the A and hope for a call up great.

  87. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The best way to evaluate D on other teams would be playing them and by eye.

    There are only a few players at any position that are exceptional. Decending order from there.

    Good players can do the essential job description reliably. For D to me that is break up sorties before the D zone, reliably defend the HDSCA, retrieve the puck and send it up ice in a good way reliably.

    If they can add offense they are a very good player. If they can add exceptional offense they are elite.

    A qualifier is being a shutdown player against elites. That is a very good player that sacrifices offense often for the greater good like Larsson. Or Vlasic.

  88. leadfarmer says:

    Seems like Faulks biggest issue last year was being paired with Fleury. Seems like a lot of people that were willing to give Demers a pass for not playing well with Matheson are willing to put the nail in Faulk for playing with Fleury who was his most common partner.
    Faulk actually did pretty well in the HDCF%department. It’s just all the against ended up in the back of his net.
    What I’m finding is with Carolinas sieves in net their advanced stats are useful for one thing. Being fired into the sun.
    Cause you have such fun numbers like
    Pesce GF% without Slavin – 24%
    Slavin without Pesce – 35%. I mean this is a top defensive dman here!!!
    Slavin HDGF without Pesce – 41%

    Slavin and Faulk HDCF 60%. Looks pretty darn good. Add goalies to the equation. 44%
    Corsi with -57% Fenwick with 57% Looks good
    GF % 39!!!

    So Hurricanes numbers i guess show two things.
    1. Jordan Staal is very good at hockeying
    2. Hurricanes pay a lot of money for cardboard goalie trainer quality goaltending

  89. dustrock says:

    I didn’t realize Garrison was still playing in the NHL.

    Bold move.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Jason Garrison?But why?Why didn’t we just bring in Davidson?

    He had 10 PTO offers and one was from the Oilers.

  91. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: He had 10 PTO offers and one was from the Oilers.

    One thing about Katz, is he lets them spend. Garrison in the A where he finished last year is at least there is an experienced call up. Third pair maybe he floats

  92. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Well that’s not going to help team speed

  93. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Davidson turned them down no? I thought that was the word last week and if I recall he was praised by someone here for turning the Oilers down.

    Also can I ask why it is that ANY move by this team management is routinely and summarily dismissed? I get there is angst but the level of naysaying is in my humble opinion off the charts.

    It’s not informative it just feels like habitual axe grinding.

    Are there so many way better options that taking a look at Upshall or Garrison on a PTO is another catastrophe?

    Oh I just bet I’m going to get flayed for saying this….

  94. leadfarmer says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    The word was he turned down a PTO cause he was expecting a contract. He did not get one. But he probably wanted a turn with a franchise that doesn’t know him this well

  95. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m sure this has been answered but the team has to be compliant with the cap on day 1 of the season. LTIR doesn’t get rid of the player’s cap hit but, if the team is at the cap, it provides a cushion to go over the cap (but not until after they are compliant on day 1).

    Are you saying you can’t use the cushion until you meet some day 1 test without it?

    Because capgeek is very clear that the ltir and the ltir reflief cushion are both in play before day 1 i.e. during training camp.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq#training-camp-example

    The only thing special about day 1 is that your lose the 10% overrun and your net after ltir and ltir relief has to fit 100% not 110%.

  96. jtblack says:

    some of these quotes about Garrisson are Funny!

    Got the 7D market locked up!

    If Nurse is not signed to play game 1, then how does everyone feel about the team 🤔

  97. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    leadfarmer:
    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    The word was he turned down a PTO cause he was expecting a contract.He did not get one.But he probably wanted a turn with a franchise that doesn’t know him this well

    That’s what I understood. But then my pessimism with the level of rhetoric is this: HAD the Oilers offered him a contract the immediate reaction would have been to complain the about the number of contracts, the cap, the damage to developing players, etc.

    There no way make a move without having an iinstantaneous negative reaction. Invite no one on a PTO – “they aren’t doing enough”. Invite more competition for 7/8 D options – “more team slowing”, “should have kept Gryba”. Then inevitably “Gryba sucked”.

    And on and on. A Möbius strip complaint cycle. Maybe I’m just crabby cause I’m old and my back hurts!

  98. Wilde says:

    Side: Side

    Sorry, just getting to this now.

    What I think is the major-majority likelihood is that Evan Bouchard can’t make reads and execute gaps at NHL speed straight out of junior.

    Its kind of glossed over with his play that he’s struggled in the OHL defensively – drafting him is very much making a bet that he can become passable-to-good in this area to complement his extraordinary ability to pass the puck in all three zones.

    (This may be partially due to the size and frame he possesses compared to his 2018 draft peers, he’s a mature bodied offensive defenceman in a draft class famous for its undersized versions of the same, and it’s assumed from there that he’s better defensively than the smaller guys)

    But, with players of his numerical stature, it seems the only failure cases are players who went straight to the NHL. Therefore, again, it would seem the only way to fuck this up is by playing him in the NHL early.

    My brand of analysis isn’t particularly focused on the psychological aspect of the game and the players’ life, partly because I’m cognizant I know nothing in this area and partly because I think that part of the discourse is bloatedly oversaturated as it is.

    I’ll wade into those waters for a second here though.

    Let’s suppose that Evan Bouchard has effectively the same audition in impact as Ethan Bear’s last year, maybe a bit better offensively, gets more done on the powerplay, better boxcars.

    This wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world when you’re evaluating the player; a 19 year old defenseman outperforms one of the better 21 year old defencemen call-ups from the AHL, outperforms an older player who has probably an above 50% chance of playing a significant amount of games in the NHL in his career.

    But Ethan Bear also went 7-17 in 5v5 goals in 18 games – for a 9 game audition that’d be what, 4-9 rounded up both ways?

    I’ve been reading a ton on war models, and the accepted GAR to WAR conversion is that about 4 and a half goals is a worth a win.

    So then, Evan Bouchard will have on his own costed the team a game in the critical opening part of the schedule.

    Contrast that to the call-up of Ethan Bear: It’s garbage time, whatever, see what he’s got, oh he’s missing coverage and leaving gaps, that’s fine he’s 20.

    Versus, in a critical season, a young players’ first NHL games(and first league games as an asset of the organisation) consisting of him costing the team while the spotlight is shining bright – October in Edmonton.

    There’s probably a big difference in what each player brings back, in their head and their heart, to the lower leagues they’ll work on their game in.

    He may take it in stride, take it as ‘I am very far from an NHL defencemen defensively’ and work extra hard in the OHL.

    He may even say that to himself.

    But it may not help.

    And that’d be through no fault of his own, we could reckon the same thing happened to Kailer Yamamoto based on his cold return to Spokane, and that’s as an individual who’s known in his community for his resilience and humility.

    You could do a bunch of things; spread the games out against weaker teams; play him in extremely sheltered minutes; concoct any number of developmental techniques.

    Or you could keep him down, and have him join the club of defencemen with his scoring acumen who didn’t enter the NHL in their draft+1 year.

    Which is a group of defencemen with an enormously high rate of converting into high-value long-term assets.

    I’d suggest a year in the OHL with a focus of making stops and turning pucks over through anticipation and reads, then a start in the AHL the next year with an identical mandate.

  99. hunter1909 says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour: Also can I ask why it is that ANY move by this team management is routinely and summarily dismissed? I get there is angst but the level of naysaying is in my humble opinion off the charts.
    It’s not informative it just feels like habitual axe grinding.
    Are there so many way better options that taking a look at Upshall or Garrison on a PTO is another catastrophe?
    Oh I just bet I’m going to get flayed for saying this….

    Well…

    After suffering the way we all have for a decade plus, only to see Taylor Hall dealt for a decent but not 1st pairing defenceman, opening up a huge hole plus Eberle, plus…oh man…don’t make us relive it.

  100. hunter1909 says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    Although part of me is probably going to be foolishly optimistic for at least 1-2 games into the season…

    The reality is, the Oilers are run by people who seem more like underaged groupies at an 1980’s post Whisky-A Go-Go party for Motley Crue, than hockey executives.

  101. Wilde says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour:
    Also can I ask why it is that ANY move by this team management is routinely and summarily dismissed? I get there is angst but the level of naysaying is in my humble opinion off the charts.

    – Ty Rattie

    – Tobias Rieder

    – Evan Bouchard

    – Ryan McLeod

    – Cooper Marody

    – Jakub Jerabek

    – Kyle Brodziak

    – Pontus Aberg

    – Joel Persson

    – Scottie Upshall

    – Matt Benning

    In fact, I think just in raw numbers there’s been more positively-reacted-to acquisitions/re-signings since the deadline last year than than negatively reacted to –

    – Eric Gryba buyout

    – Mikko Koskinen (mixed)

    – Drake Caggiula

    – Olivier Rodrigue (mixed)

    – Jason Garrison

    I hope you don’t consider this as a flaying, but I will say rather confidently that I think this is an overstating of the slant of the lens on recent moves here. Most of the negativity surrounding the general manager is in discussions about moves last summer or prior. If the amount of moves lauded as good literally outnumbers the amount opposite, it’s pretty silly to say that this place is incapable of doing anything but dismissing Chiarelli’s moves.

  102. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    hunter1909:
    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    Although part of me is probably going to be foolishly optimistic for at least 1-2 games into the season…

    The reality is, the Oilers are run by people who seem more like underaged groupies at an 1980’s post Whisky-A Go-Go party for Motley Crue, than hockey executives.

    Indeed! It boggles my mind everyday that Kevin Lowe and Craig McTavish still have jobs with this team!

  103. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Wilde: – Ty Rattie

    – Tobias Rieder

    – Evan Bouchard

    – Ryan McLeod

    – Cooper Marody

    – Jakub Jerabek

    – Kyle Brodziak

    – Pontus Aberg

    – Joel Persson

    – Scottie Upshall

    – Matt Benning

    In fact, I think just in raw numbers there’s been more positively-reacted-to acquisitions/re-signings since the deadline last year than than negatively reacted to –

    – Eric Gryba buyout

    – Mikko Koskinen (mixed)

    –Drake Caggiula

    – Olivier Rodrigue (mixed)

    – Jason Garrison

    I hope you don’t consider this as a flaying, but I will say rather confidently that I think this is an overstating of the slant of the lens on recent moves here. Most of the negativity surrounding the general manager is in discussions about moves last summer or prior. If the amount of moves lauded as good literally outnumbers the amount opposite, it’s pretty silly to say that this place is incapable of doing anything but dismissing Chiarelli’s moves.

    A good point and you have listed what I absolutely agree are some good moves. There is negativity by some about most of these moves though. I am sorry I can’t back that up with quotes.

    I think my own negativity about negativity (is that metanegativity or epinegativity?) is that fundamentally it is tiresome and doesn’t stimulate discussion. I’m frustrated with the poor performance of this team, the mystifying behavior of the coach, the fact that Lowe & McTavish are still here, so maybe I’m just cranky!

    But I do appreciate you responding – I find your reply to be positive!

  104. jp says:

    HT Joe: Thanks for the response.

    You’re predicting Drai at 50%… sorry for my ignorance but do you know whereabouts he was last year?Thanks!!

    At 5X5 Drai was actually 49.17 GF% last year, though McDavid was his most common line mate. Without McDavid Drai was 42.4%

  105. rickithebear says:

    Nurse the dman?
    Known CHL scouts and I have observed a rover named Nurse.
    But there is no Dman.
    Cup win wise Nurse the rover has no value.

    I did see a dman named nurse in WJC that was an unbelievable HD anchor for that team.
    Have not seen him in the NHL.
    Thought he could be a cup core anchor 1st comp HD dman like our current #1 Larrson.
    So rare and worth about anything to get.

    We did bring a dman that was part of the best PvP HD Dpair in NHl few years ago.
    He was a 1.99 to 1.16 exp EVGA paired with HD dman till last year in Vegas.
    Do not Know what is left?

    Sitting in the hotel going to get chemo/ transplant port tomorow.

    Go Oilers!

  106. €√¥£€^$ says:

    rickithebear,

    My thoughts are with you Ricki!

  107. Glovjuice says:

    London Jon:
    Starting to look very deep in the 7D spot!!

    ah ha ha hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaaa – that’s funny.

  108. Wilde says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    Yes, I agree with the majority opinion of most of those moves to varying degrees.

    Cooper Marody – I’m higher on this prospect than most.

    Mikko Koskinen – I like this more than most because I don’t actually value the 2018-19 season for the Oilers. Goaltending future was a problem and if you get Carter Hutton you know he’s a backup. Koskinen could be a starter, could also give Talbot a bunch of games off and we can observe how much better he is with some rest and that eases the risk of a another ~4 year deal on him.

    Evan Bouchard – Preferred Oliver Wahlstrom, Joel Farabee, Ty Smith, Ryan Merkley.

    Ryan McLeod – Preferred Akil Thomas, Ruslan Ishkakov(thought he’d be there at our 3rd, though, so this isn’t fair criticism because he would have been taken before I got the chance), David Gustafsson, Bode Wilde.

    Olivier Rodrigue – Preferred Johnny Gruden, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev(You can choose not to believe this but I just spelled that from memory), Nik Nordgren.

    Drake Caggiula – A lot of people are very down on this contract, I’m even lower. Deadly serious.

    Jakub Jerabek – Higher on this guy than most. If it’s true he played right-side, too, even better move. I like the European depth Dmen Chia goes after

    I’m more concerned about the coaching staff than the GM right now. A lot of the bad moves made by GM’s are when they think they’re cleaning up the last guys’ mess and throw the baby out with the bathwater, or they’re desperate and make a short-term move.

    Chia’s past the cleaning phase (in which he devastated this organisation) and now this summer he’s shown he won’t make a desperate short-term move.

    So I think Peters’ damage has mostly been done, besides whatever opportunity cost there is having a GM that isn’t trusted to make big moves. Who knows what trades are floating out there that he can’t execute, and that goes both ways.

    The coaching staff though… They can still lose Puljujarvi, they can rush Bouchard, Jay Woodcroft is tasked with producing good productive depth forwards as a guy who in his last 5 years in San Jose ran a team’s offense that was 13th, 20th, 25th, 8th and 22nd in 5v5 GF/60 while equipped with well above league average forward corps and transitional defencemen.

  109. Gerta Rauss says:

    hags9k:
    I’m way behind these days…Can someone clarify for me how Sekera’s injury effects the Nurse negotiations?

    Do we now have freed $ to possibly do a long term deal? (my preference!)
    Or do we need to wait for the season to start to LTIR Rej and therefore it has no impact on a deal done before camp, meaning we are still looking at a bridge?

    Thanks if anyone can smarten me up here.

    N64 has posted that cap friendly ltir doc above-I encourage you to read it

    Waiting for the season to start is 1 option for the Oilers re: LTIR, but it’s not the only option. The Oilers can place Sekera on LTIR on the last day of training camp. I encourage you to read the below link- it’s 4 years old and it’s in regards to the Pronger situation with the Flyers, but it’s directly relevant to Sekera’s situation with the Oilers

    https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/7/3/5865615/flyers-salary-cap-pronger-ltir

    *edit- I found this item as well
    http://thehockeyguys.net/timing-is-everything-maximizing-ltir-benefits/

    *edit2-another excellent article by broadstreet hockey-the Philly fans have a lot of experience with this

    https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/10/15/6951103/why-long-term-injured-reserve-is-not-good

  110. Gerta Rauss says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/7/3/5865615/flyers-salary-cap-pronger-ltir

    I encourage you to read the above link regarding LTIR- the link is specific to Pronger but it translates directly to Sekera

    *edit
    I found this item as well

    http://thehockeyguys.net/timing-is-everything-maximizing-ltir-benefits/

    *edit2-more broadstreet hockey

    https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/10/15/6951103/why-long-term-injured-reserve-is-not-good

  111. Pescador says:

    dustrock:
    I didn’t realize Garrison was still playing in the NHL.

    Bold move.

    Bold move.
    Bad move.
    Bald move.
    Chia

  112. Glovjuice says:

    Wilde:
    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    Yes, I agree with the majority opinion of most of those moves to varying degrees.

    Cooper Marody – I’m higher on this prospect than most.

    Mikko Koskinen – I like this more than most because I don’t actually value the 2018-19 season for the Oilers. Goaltending future was a problem and if you get Carter Hutton you know he’s a backup. Koskinen could be a starter, could also give Talbot a bunch of games off and we can observe how much better he is with some rest and that eases the risk of a another ~4 year deal on him.

    Evan Bouchard – Preferred Oliver Wahlstrom, Joel Farabee, Ty Smith, Ryan Merkley.

    Ryan McLeod – Preferred Akil Thomas, Ruslan Ishkakov(thought he’d be there at our 3rd, though, so this isn’t fair criticism because he would have been taken before I got the chance), David Gustafsson, Bode Wilde.

    Olivier Rodrigue – Preferred Johnny Gruden, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev(You can choose not to believe this but I just spelled that from memory), Nik Nordgren.

    Drake Caggiula – A lot of people are very down on this contract, I’m even lower. Deadly serious.

    Jakub Jerabek – Higher on this guy than most. If it’s true he played right-side, too, even better move. I like the European depth Dmen Chia goes after

    I’m more concerned about the coaching staff than the GM right now. A lot of the bad moves made by GM’s are when they think they’re cleaning up the last guys’ mess and throw the baby out with the bathwater, or they’re desperate and make a short-term move.

    Chia’s past the cleaning phase (in which he devastated this organisation) and now this summer he’s shown he won’t make a desperate short-term move.

    So I think Peters’ damage has mostly been done, besides whatever opportunity cost there is having a GM that isn’t trusted to make big moves. Who knows what trades are floating out there that he can’t execute, and that goes both ways.

    The coaching staff though… They can still lose Puljujarvi, they can rush Bouchard, Jay Woodcroft is tasked with producing good productive depth forwards as a guy who in his last 5 years in San Jose ran a team’s offense that was 13th, 20th, 25th, 8th and 22nd in 5v5 GF/60 while equipped with well above league average forward corps and transitional defencemen.

    this is perfect – I agree with every single point

  113. JimmyV1965 says:

    There’s a group of four unsigned RFA dmen; Nurse, Morissey, Hannifan and Theodore. I suspect when the first one signs, the rest will follow shortly later.

  114. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: This is year 1 of an 8 year contract for McDavid – of course, we never want to “waste” any years including “McDavid years”, but management needs to remain patient and smart.Another bad move to take on a bad contract (even without material assets going out) has the potential to have an even more egregious effect on the future years than wasting this year would have.

    Taking on Faulk’s contract for next season comes with WAY too much risk for me given his recent level of performance. The cap situation for next off-season may not be any better than this off-season without that contract.

    I agree that Faulk provides PP cover but, given how bad he’s been at evens, I can’t agree that he woudl for sure be one of the top 6 for next season (not with the likes of Bouchard, Bear, Lagesson, Berglund, Jones, etc.) in the picture

    You keep referring to risk. Perhaps that’s the corporate lender / lawyer in you. I’ve already addressed the “risk” in terms of a buyout next year in an old thread. Anyone can click on the buyout calculator at cap friendly.

    Lagesson, Berglund, and Jones may never make it to the NHL let alone next season, so I wouldn’t worry about that. Bear and Boouchard both could be ready or could take another year.

    You’d hope to trade Faulk if Bouchard or Bear somehow are a better options than him next year.

    I think your bias against Faulk is based upon the Green Jacket he’s wearing. The guy was minus -26 last season, so he must be garbage at 5v5. Right?

    Jeff Petry was -25 in his last year on the Oilers, so he’s garbage too, right? I wouldn’t want that Jeff Petry guy playing in my top four because he was -25 the last time he played for us. As an aside, I was reading trade proposals at HF Boards for the Leafs the other day. They (leaf fans) were ready package a 1st plus for Petry, but were cognizant of the fact that they couldn’t manage his cap hit.

    There’s been endless debate amongst bigger nerds than myself and the consensus as recently as I understand it is that dmen do not influence on ice save percentage.

    Faulk had a .904 SV % at 5v5 last season.League average was .923!!! He also had a PDO of .968. With league average SV, that would have been 13 goals against knocked off alone

    League average SH% last leason was 7.8% Faulk was on for 6.43. League average on ice shooting % yields another 5 goals.

  115. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    Seems like Faulks biggest issue last year was being paired with Fleury.Seems like a lot of people that were willing to give Demers a pass for not playing well with Matheson are willing to put the nail in Faulk for playing with Fleury who was his most common partner.
    Faulk actually did pretty well in the HDCF%department.It’s just all the against ended up in the back of his net.
    What I’m finding is with Carolinas sieves in net their advanced stats are useful for one thing.Being fired into the sun.
    Cause you have such fun numbers like
    Pesce GF% without Slavin – 24%
    Slavin without Pesce – 35%.I mean this is a top defensive dman here!!!
    Slavin HDGF without Pesce – 41%

    Slavin and Faulk HDCF 60%.Looks pretty darn good.Add goalies to the equation.44%
    Corsi with -57%Fenwick with 57% Looks good
    GF % 39!!!

    So Hurricanes numbers i guess show two things.
    1.Jordan Staal is very good at hockeying
    2.Hurricanes pay a lot of money for cardboard goalie trainer quality goaltending

    The only way to see through the fog is TOI.

    Let’s start with a few assumptions. Not all may be correct.

    1. Any active (or recently active) NHL coach knows more about evaluating defencsemen than we do.
    2. Any active NHL coach deploys his dmen with the intent of providing the possible chance of winning a hockey game acting in his own and team’s mutual self -interest.

    TOI.

    Last season Fault was 2nd on the Canes in TOI/60 at 5v5. This a team with an emerging and talented blue line. 1st on PP toi/60. At all strengths? 2nd! Fire him into the Sun.

    Two years ago.

    Second all strength. First at 5v5. First at PP.

    Three years ago.

    1st at all strengths. 1st PP. 2nd 5v5.

    Given the options Bill Peters had to deploy, clearly Faulk is an “actual top four defenseman.”

  116. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: Another bad move to take on a bad contract (even without material assets going out)

    Not to pile on, but surely this is hyperbole?

    You wouldn’t take Faulk even if it costed zero material assets?

    What price would you take him at? Any?

  117. Side says:

    Wilde,

    Good read. Thank you.

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    Yes, I agree with the majority opinion of most of those moves to varying degrees.

    Cooper Marody – I’m higher on this prospect than most.

    Mikko Koskinen – I like this more than most because I don’t actually value the 2018-19 season for the Oilers. Goaltending future was a problem and if you get Carter Hutton you know he’s a backup. Koskinen could be a starter, could also give Talbot a bunch of games off and we can observe how much better he is with some rest and that eases the risk of a another ~4 year deal on him.

    Evan Bouchard – Preferred Oliver Wahlstrom, Joel Farabee, Ty Smith, Ryan Merkley.

    Ryan McLeod – Preferred Akil Thomas, Ruslan Ishkakov(thought he’d be there at our 3rd, though, so this isn’t fair criticism because he would have been taken before I got the chance), David Gustafsson, Bode Wilde.

    Olivier Rodrigue – Preferred Johnny Gruden, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev(You can choose not to believe this but I just spelled that from memory), Nik Nordgren.

    Drake Caggiula – A lot of people are very down on this contract, I’m even lower. Deadly serious.

    Jakub Jerabek – Higher on this guy than most. If it’s true he played right-side, too, even better move. I like the European depth Dmen Chia goes after

    I’m more concerned about the coaching staff than the GM right now. A lot of the bad moves made by GM’s are when they think they’re cleaning up the last guys’ mess and throw the baby out with the bathwater, or they’re desperate and make a short-term move.

    Chia’s past the cleaning phase (in which he devastated this organisation) and now this summer he’s shown he won’t make a desperate short-term move.

    So I think Peters’ damage has mostly been done, besides whatever opportunity cost there is having a GM that isn’t trusted to make big moves. Who knows what trades are floating out there that he can’t execute, and that goes both ways.

    The coaching staff though… They can still lose Puljujarvi, they can rush Bouchard, Jay Woodcroft is tasked with producing good productive depth forwards as a guy who in his last 5 years in San Jose ran a team’s offense that was 13th, 20th, 25th, 8th and 22nd in 5v5 GF/60 while equipped with well above league average forward corps and transitional defencemen.

    I’m probably just as high on Marody as anyone – didn’t think much of the trade/him until I watched 4 Michigan games post trade and was pleasantly surprised with his game and skill level.

    The issue with the Koskinen overpay is that the cap space (extra $1.5M over Montoya, probably a good $1M overpay (if not more) given no reasonable comparable and Francouz at $690K) is took away cap space that could have been used, for example, to sign Nurse for term.

    We can all like or dislike draft picks but its such an inexact process, in particular as you get past the top half of the first round. Sure, I guess one can like guys like Whalstrom over Bouchard but its tough to argue against the puck, to me, when it fills a need and is also arguably the BPA (arguably) and its value for the McKenzie consensus pick. Past that, for example, the McLeod pick and even moreso Rodrigue, I guess we can all have preferences but we are talking less than a 50% chance of an NHL career, so, given the org didn’t go off the board (and actually got severe value vis-a-vis projetion), to me, tough to argue.

    To me, the coaching hires are massive, absolutely massive and are the biggest acquisitions of the off-season as far as this year’s team.

    —————————-

    Doesn’t your post kind of help prove the point you are responding to though? Even moves that are, for the most part, univerally accepted as good, are being questioned – (1) the coaching staff, (2) Rodrigue and (3) Bouchard.

    I mean, we got Bouchard 3 places after he was ranked on the “consensus”, he was, arguably the BPA and definitely fits a position of needs but yet the response is to reference other players that would have been preferred.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    OriginalPouzar,

    https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/7/3/5865615/flyers-salary-cap-pronger-ltir

    I encourage you to read the above link regarding LTIR- the link is specific to Pronger but it translates directly to Sekera

    *edit
    I found this item as well

    http://thehockeyguys.net/timing-is-everything-maximizing-ltir-benefits/

    *edit2-more broadstreet hockey

    https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/10/15/6951103/why-long-term-injured-reserve-is-not-good

    I will read after the gym, thank you.

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: You keep referring to risk. Perhaps that’s the corporate lender / lawyer in you. I’ve already addressed the “risk” in terms of a buyout next year in an old thread. Anyone can click on the buyout calculator at cap friendly.

    Lagesson, Berglund, and Jones may never make it to the NHL let alone next season, so I wouldn’t worry about that. Bearand Boouchardboth could be ready or could take another year.

    You’d hope to trade Faulk if Bouchard or Bear somehow are a better options than him next year.

    I think your bias against Faulk is based upon the Green Jacket he’s wearing. The guy was minus -26 last season, so he must be garbage at 5v5. Right?

    Jeff Petry was -25 in his last year on the Oilers, so he’s garbage too, right? I wouldn’t want that Jeff Petry guy playing in my top four because he was -25 the last time he played for us. As an aside, I was reading trade proposals at HF Boards for the Leafs the other day. They (leaf fans) were ready package a 1st plus for Petry, but were cognizant of the fact that they couldn’t manage his cap hit.

    There’s been endless debate amongst bigger nerds than myself and the consensus as recently as I understand it is that dmen do not influence on ice save percentage.

    Faulk had a .904 SV % at 5v5 last season.League average was .923!!! He also had a PDO of .968. With league average SV, that would have been 13 goals against knocked off alone

    League average SH% last leason was 7.8% Faulk was on for 6.43. League average on ice shooting % yields another 5 goals.

    No, my analysis of Faulk is not based on his plus/minus, as per my first post, its based mainly on watching him play. Yes, I only saw 4 CAR games last year but he was awful in all of them and that is what I base my analysis on plus regression of traditional metrics (i.e 12 even strength points this past year).

    The Faulk that I saw in those 4 games, I don’t want him, I think he may make the team worse – not sure he’s even a 3rd pairing guy at evens.

    Hasn’t Faulk always had a very low on ice save percentage?

    Yes, I guess a buyout mitigates risk a bit but its still adding a contract that we KNOW will cause cap issues and require disposal of cap space and, to me, for a player that is simply not good enough to warrant any such risk (not to mention assets out to get him).

  121. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: The issue with the Koskinen overpay is that the cap space (extra $1.5M over Montoya, probably a good $1M overpay (if not more) given no reasonable comparable and Francouz at $690K) is took away cap space that could have been used, for example, to sign Nurse for term.

    Yeah, Peter found his target and paid for it in full. SOP for him. Not great process wise, but results wise I’m not even sure signing Nurse long term at this time would have been optimal anyways. He’s had a very volatile year-to-year trajectory, he could easily end up being much cheaper long term next summer or the one after that.

    OriginalPouzar: We can all like or dislike draft picks but its such an inexact process,

    No, OP, I am the prophet.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: Not to pile on, but surely this is hyperbole?

    You wouldn’t take Faulk even if it costed zero material assets?

    What price would you take him at? Any?

    Correct, I may not take him on for no material assets as I am not sure he makes the team better and his contract will require corresponding moves to be made during, or prior to, next off-season.

    As I said, I watched him play i believe 4 times last year and in all four games he was awful without the puck, awful in his own zone. This has nothing to do with his stats but from me watching the him play, granted only 4 times, I don’t think he can handle 3rd pairing minutes and even saw off. He was 100% a PP specialist in the games i saw.

  123. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack: Last year RNH had 48 points in 62 games. That pro rates to 63 points over 82. and he only played with Connor for about 20 games.

    I think it was 13 actually. If you look at the 14th last game Nuge played, March 8th vs Islanders, Lowetide had this to say:

    “Caggiula-Nuge-Aberg went 11-10 in 12:04 (Caggiula) and 5-10 in 9:10 (Aberg). The line was porridge frankly, and I found myself wishing RNH would be moved onto a line with more bite. He eventually found his way to 97’s wing and, although not much happened, we may see it again.”

    “Lucic-McDavid-Draisaitl went 20-20, 0-1 GF and the line was eventually abandoned. I liked the fact the trio checked well (a bunch of turnovers, 5-4 HDSC) and if one of the monster chances had cashed maybe they would have been kept together. McDavid went 5-5 in 4:01 with Nuge, some of that including Caggiula (6-3 in 2:55) in what might be a preview of things to come. He actually scored his goal with Zack Kassian and Caggiula, but a glance at NTS proves McLellan basically ran 97 with everyone in the third period (he rarely left the ice after the 10-minute mark of the third period). I watched him closely during this period to see if McDavid was doing the Phil Esposito (lagging on back checks to conserve energy) but the opposite appeared true: He was grabbing the puck as soon as possible and pushing the pace at suicide speed. I honestly sat in awe of his performance in the third period, it is something I’ll remember a long time. ”

    March 10 vs Minnesota was their 1st game together. Nuge had 1g-1a and McDavid got 2g-1a in a 4-1 win.

    If we look at Nugent-Hopkins last 13 games we get this stat line: 13, 7-8-15 +14
    McDavid’s boxcars in those 13 games looks like this: 13, 10-17-27 +11
    There were two late games that RNH missed (March 31 @ CGY / April 2 @ MIN), wherein McDavids boxcars looked like this: 2, 0-0-0 -5

    Pro-rating their time together, Nugent-Hopkins comes in at 95 points and McDavid at 170 points. Obviously that’s not a realistic expectation for the season, but 75 and 135 isn’t as bold a prediction as one might think.

  124. jp says:

    Ryan:

    I think your bias against Faulk is based upon the Green Jacket he’s wearing. The guy was minus -26 last season, so he must be garbage at 5v5. Right?

    Jeff Petry was -25 in his last year on the Oilers, so he’s garbage too, right? I wouldn’t want that Jeff Petry guy playing in my top four because he was -25 the last time he played for us. As an aside, I was reading trade proposals at HF Boards for the Leafs the other day. They (leaf fans) were ready package a 1st plus for Petry, but were cognizant of the fact that they couldn’t manage his cap hit.

    There’s been endless debate amongst bigger nerds than myself and the consensus as recently as I understand it is that dmen do not influence on ice save percentage.

    Faulk had a .904 SV % at 5v5 last season.League average was .923!!! He also had a PDO of .968. With league average SV, that would have been 13 goals against knocked off alone

    The problem is it’s not just one year. Faulk has been -18 or worse in each of the last 4 years. And his best PDO in that span is .974.

    For sure Carolina has been a PDO black hole, but Faulk is consistently one of the worst offenders.

    Could he be better in a different environment? Sure. But there’s enough evidence that Faulk might be creating his own bad luck that I’m more than a little concerned about sending away assets to bring him in.

  125. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m sure this has been answered but the team has to be compliant with the cap on day 1 of the season. LTIR doesn’t get rid of the player’s cap hit but, if the team is at the cap, it provides a cushion to go over the cap (but not until after they are compliant on day 1).

    This isn’t true according to CapFriendly:

    “Can LTIR be used in the off-season?

    Yes, LTIR can be used in the off-season while the 10% off-season cushion is active. LTIR in the off-season is calculated using the basic equation outlined above, which permits a team to exceed the off-season salary cap. To use off-season LTIR the team must provide doctors proof that the player in question will continue to be injured at the beginning of the regular season for 10 NHL games and 24 calendar days.

    At the start of the season the teams LTIR relief & ACSL is recalculated when the 10% cushion is removed.”

    https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq

  126. ArmchairGM says:

    Ryan: I’m not the capologist here, but no it doesn’t free up any money today to sign Nurse long term.

    That’s a good question. I don’t think you can use Rej’s LTIR to extend Nurse long term even if you wait for the start of the season to extend nurse.

    Rej on LTIR frees up $5.5M for the duration of his absense only.

  127. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: The problem is it’s not just one year. Faulk has been -18 or worse in each of the last 4 years. And his best PDO in that span is .974.

    For sure Carolina has been a PDO black hole, but Faulk is consistently one of the worst offenders.

    Could he be better in a different environment? Sure. But there’s enough evidence that Faulk might be creating his own bad luck that I’m more than a little concerned about sending away assets to bring him in.

    https://www.tsn.ca/just-how-good-is-justin-faulk-1.1123444

    Required reading for Oilers fans.

  128. hags9k says:

    Thanks Gerta, Armchair, OP.

    Now I’m wondering about the other end, when Rej gets healthy, how does the club remain compliant assuming they are exceeding the cap while he is LTIR?

  129. Gerta Rauss says:

    hags9k:
    Thanks Gerta, Armchair, OP.

    Now I’m wondering about the other end, when Rej gets healthy, how does the club remain compliant assuming they are exceeding the cap while he is LTIR?

    Well it’s tricky, and that 3rd link I posted offers an answer of sorts

    Cap hits are calculated daily, and if you don’t use all of your daily allottment, your unused portion accrues and accumulates over the season(so you can use it later in the season if need be)

    That’s why you’ll see teams closer to the deadline with millions and millions of capspace-in that link I posted(and let’s acknowledge again, that link is 4 years old) the example it uses shows Calgary would have had approxiately $71M in capspace at the 2013 deadline. No team is ever going to use that much, but that’s what Calgary had available to them

    The issue with LTIR, is that unused daily cap space does NOT accrue-you use it on that day or it’s gone. And the very fact you’re dipping into your LTIR reserve means you’re spending your 100% daily allotment, so you’re NOT accruing any daily unused cap space. This can change over the course of a season of course, maybe there are other injuries, maybe you run a 22 man roster, maybe you demote a player and don’t immediately recall a replacement and your may “save” a little daily cap space here and there

    So with Sekera, if he comes back before the season ends, the Oiler MAY have accrued enough cap space to squeeze him back onto the roster, but maybe not. If not, they’ll have to trade someone.

    The key item for me is the quote from Chia regarding him “knowing the severity” of Sekera’s injury-this can mean 2 things: his injury is not that severe, Rej will be back this season, and a more conservative approach to spending the LTIR money is wise.

    or

    They know Rej is gone for the season, and they can trade for Justin Faulk asap*

    *that’s for you OP..:)

    https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/10/15/6951103/why-long-term-injured-reserve-is-not-good

  130. russ99 says:

    jp: The problem is it’s not just one year. Faulk has been -18 or worse in each of the last 4 years. And his best PDO in that span is .974.

    For sure Carolina has been a PDO black hole, but Faulk is consistently one of the worst offenders.

    Could he be better in a different environment? Sure. But there’s enough evidence that Faulk might be creating his own bad luck that I’m more than a little concerned about sending away assets to bring him in.

    ArmchairGM: https://www.tsn.ca/just-how-good-is-justin-faulk-1.1123444

    Required reading for Oilers fans.

    Here’s a perfect case where defensive metrics would shine a light much better than GAA, +/-, PDO or shot metrics, which don’t really look at the issue: Faulk’s defensive zone performance.

    SV% on ice, HDSC% and zone exit metrics for example.

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