Money Changes Everything

by Lowetide

As training camp edges nearer, we are getting the fun stories (“McDavid wants to score more goals!”) and the not fun stories (“Andrej Sekera is out indefinitely”) and now, as we reach September, fresh stories with new angles. In the words of the great songwriter Paul McCartney, we’re getting closer, my salamander.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

People keep wondering about the holdup but I think this contract writes itself. Edmonton is going to sign Nurse to a bridge deal (two years times $3-3.25 million) and that’s going make money to tight to mention. The Oilers could get to $4 million with Nurse and that would help them get right to the cap outer marker—I believe this to be the case if they’re attempting to LTIR Sekera and acquire Justin Faulk. It might look like this.

PROJECTED 2018-19 ROSTER

It certainly could be the plan, we’ll have to wait and see. Peter Chiarelli can go to camp, hope someone (Evan Bouchard, Ethan Bear) grabs the No. 6 slot with fine play, and then the defense becomes less of an issue. A guess? Justin Faulk is an Oiler shortly after the team lands back in North America after the opener in Europe. We discussed this over a week ago.

AUGUST 2017 RE (2017-18)

I had someone tell me yesterday that my RE’s are accurate and the answer is “not really” based on last season. I got close on Connor McDavid, but the overall thrust (I had 257-208, Oilers were 229-262) missed by many. The previous season, 2016-17, I predicted 226-226 and the team delivered 243-207. As much fun as projecting team scoring can be, definitely nothing you should bet money on. I haven’t published this year’s RE but have the final projection. It is shy of last year’s projection.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning on the show, we have some fluidity in the guest list. It starts at 10, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Travis Yost, TSN. One of my favourite guests, it’s been to long. We’ll chat about the upcoming NHL season and two teams (Chicago, Detroit) in new circumstances.
  • John Horn, Freelance Commentator, Reporter, Producer with ESPN, WTA, MLB Network, TSN. Sloane Stephens is off to a fabulous start at The U.S. Open, we’ll chat about it at 10:40.
  • Andrew Peard, Oil Kings PBP. We’ll chat about the Oil Kings and a promising season ahead.
  • Matt Barrows, The Athletic. Is this the year the San Fransisco 49er’s make it all the way back?

Text 10-1260, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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russ99

jp: The problem is it’s not just one year. Faulk has been -18 or worse in each of the last 4 years. And his best PDO in that span is .974.

For sure Carolina has been a PDO black hole, but Faulk is consistently one of the worst offenders.

Could he be better in a different environment? Sure. But there’s enough evidence that Faulk might be creating his own bad luck that I’m more than a little concerned about sending away assets to bring him in.

ArmchairGM: https://www.tsn.ca/just-how-good-is-justin-faulk-1.1123444

Required reading for Oilers fans.

Here’s a perfect case where defensive metrics would shine a light much better than GAA, +/-, PDO or shot metrics, which don’t really look at the issue: Faulk’s defensive zone performance.

SV% on ice, HDSC% and zone exit metrics for example.

Gerta Rauss

hags9k:
Thanks Gerta, Armchair, OP.

Now I’m wondering about the other end, when Rej gets healthy, how does the club remain compliant assuming they are exceeding the cap while he is LTIR?

Well it’s tricky, and that 3rd link I posted offers an answer of sorts

Cap hits are calculated daily, and if you don’t use all of your daily allottment, your unused portion accrues and accumulates over the season(so you can use it later in the season if need be)

That’s why you’ll see teams closer to the deadline with millions and millions of capspace-in that link I posted(and let’s acknowledge again, that link is 4 years old) the example it uses shows Calgary would have had approxiately $71M in capspace at the 2013 deadline. No team is ever going to use that much, but that’s what Calgary had available to them

The issue with LTIR, is that unused daily cap space does NOT accrue-you use it on that day or it’s gone. And the very fact you’re dipping into your LTIR reserve means you’re spending your 100% daily allotment, so you’re NOT accruing any daily unused cap space. This can change over the course of a season of course, maybe there are other injuries, maybe you run a 22 man roster, maybe you demote a player and don’t immediately recall a replacement and your may “save” a little daily cap space here and there

So with Sekera, if he comes back before the season ends, the Oiler MAY have accrued enough cap space to squeeze him back onto the roster, but maybe not. If not, they’ll have to trade someone.

The key item for me is the quote from Chia regarding him “knowing the severity” of Sekera’s injury-this can mean 2 things: his injury is not that severe, Rej will be back this season, and a more conservative approach to spending the LTIR money is wise.

or

They know Rej is gone for the season, and they can trade for Justin Faulk asap*

*that’s for you OP..:)

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/10/15/6951103/why-long-term-injured-reserve-is-not-good

hags9k

Thanks Gerta, Armchair, OP.

Now I’m wondering about the other end, when Rej gets healthy, how does the club remain compliant assuming they are exceeding the cap while he is LTIR?

ArmchairGM

jp: The problem is it’s not just one year. Faulk has been -18 or worse in each of the last 4 years. And his best PDO in that span is .974.

For sure Carolina has been a PDO black hole, but Faulk is consistently one of the worst offenders.

Could he be better in a different environment? Sure. But there’s enough evidence that Faulk might be creating his own bad luck that I’m more than a little concerned about sending away assets to bring him in.

https://www.tsn.ca/just-how-good-is-justin-faulk-1.1123444

Required reading for Oilers fans.

ArmchairGM

Ryan: I’m not the capologist here, but no it doesn’t free up any money today to sign Nurse long term.

That’s a good question. I don’t think you can use Rej’s LTIR to extend Nurse long term even if you wait for the start of the season to extend nurse.

Rej on LTIR frees up $5.5M for the duration of his absense only.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: I’m sure this has been answered but the team has to be compliant with the cap on day 1 of the season. LTIR doesn’t get rid of the player’s cap hit but, if the team is at the cap, it provides a cushion to go over the cap (but not until after they are compliant on day 1).

This isn’t true according to CapFriendly:

“Can LTIR be used in the off-season?

Yes, LTIR can be used in the off-season while the 10% off-season cushion is active. LTIR in the off-season is calculated using the basic equation outlined above, which permits a team to exceed the off-season salary cap. To use off-season LTIR the team must provide doctors proof that the player in question will continue to be injured at the beginning of the regular season for 10 NHL games and 24 calendar days.

At the start of the season the teams LTIR relief & ACSL is recalculated when the 10% cushion is removed.”

https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq

jp

Ryan:

I think your bias against Faulk is based upon the Green Jacket he’s wearing. The guy was minus -26 last season, so he must be garbage at 5v5. Right?

Jeff Petry was -25 in his last year on the Oilers, so he’s garbage too, right? I wouldn’t want that Jeff Petry guy playing in my top four because he was -25 the last time he played for us. As an aside, I was reading trade proposals at HF Boards for the Leafs the other day. They (leaf fans) were ready package a 1st plus for Petry, but were cognizant of the fact that they couldn’t manage his cap hit.

There’s been endless debate amongst bigger nerds than myself and the consensus as recently as I understand it is that dmen do not influence on ice save percentage.

Faulk had a .904 SV % at 5v5 last season.League average was .923!!! He also had a PDO of .968. With league average SV, that would have been 13 goals against knocked off alone

The problem is it’s not just one year. Faulk has been -18 or worse in each of the last 4 years. And his best PDO in that span is .974.

For sure Carolina has been a PDO black hole, but Faulk is consistently one of the worst offenders.

Could he be better in a different environment? Sure. But there’s enough evidence that Faulk might be creating his own bad luck that I’m more than a little concerned about sending away assets to bring him in.

ArmchairGM

jtblack: Last year RNH had 48 points in 62 games. That pro rates to 63 points over 82. and he only played with Connor for about 20 games.

I think it was 13 actually. If you look at the 14th last game Nuge played, March 8th vs Islanders, Lowetide had this to say:

“Caggiula-Nuge-Aberg went 11-10 in 12:04 (Caggiula) and 5-10 in 9:10 (Aberg). The line was porridge frankly, and I found myself wishing RNH would be moved onto a line with more bite. He eventually found his way to 97’s wing and, although not much happened, we may see it again.”

“Lucic-McDavid-Draisaitl went 20-20, 0-1 GF and the line was eventually abandoned. I liked the fact the trio checked well (a bunch of turnovers, 5-4 HDSC) and if one of the monster chances had cashed maybe they would have been kept together. McDavid went 5-5 in 4:01 with Nuge, some of that including Caggiula (6-3 in 2:55) in what might be a preview of things to come. He actually scored his goal with Zack Kassian and Caggiula, but a glance at NTS proves McLellan basically ran 97 with everyone in the third period (he rarely left the ice after the 10-minute mark of the third period). I watched him closely during this period to see if McDavid was doing the Phil Esposito (lagging on back checks to conserve energy) but the opposite appeared true: He was grabbing the puck as soon as possible and pushing the pace at suicide speed. I honestly sat in awe of his performance in the third period, it is something I’ll remember a long time. ”

March 10 vs Minnesota was their 1st game together. Nuge had 1g-1a and McDavid got 2g-1a in a 4-1 win.

If we look at Nugent-Hopkins last 13 games we get this stat line: 13, 7-8-15 +14
McDavid’s boxcars in those 13 games looks like this: 13, 10-17-27 +11
There were two late games that RNH missed (March 31 @ CGY / April 2 @ MIN), wherein McDavids boxcars looked like this: 2, 0-0-0 -5

Pro-rating their time together, Nugent-Hopkins comes in at 95 points and McDavid at 170 points. Obviously that’s not a realistic expectation for the season, but 75 and 135 isn’t as bold a prediction as one might think.

OriginalPouzar

Wilde: Not to pile on, but surely this is hyperbole?

You wouldn’t take Faulk even if it costed zero material assets?

What price would you take him at? Any?

Correct, I may not take him on for no material assets as I am not sure he makes the team better and his contract will require corresponding moves to be made during, or prior to, next off-season.

As I said, I watched him play i believe 4 times last year and in all four games he was awful without the puck, awful in his own zone. This has nothing to do with his stats but from me watching the him play, granted only 4 times, I don’t think he can handle 3rd pairing minutes and even saw off. He was 100% a PP specialist in the games i saw.

Wilde

OriginalPouzar: The issue with the Koskinen overpay is that the cap space (extra $1.5M over Montoya, probably a good $1M overpay (if not more) given no reasonable comparable and Francouz at $690K) is took away cap space that could have been used, for example, to sign Nurse for term.

Yeah, Peter found his target and paid for it in full. SOP for him. Not great process wise, but results wise I’m not even sure signing Nurse long term at this time would have been optimal anyways. He’s had a very volatile year-to-year trajectory, he could easily end up being much cheaper long term next summer or the one after that.

OriginalPouzar: We can all like or dislike draft picks but its such an inexact process,

No, OP, I am the prophet.

OriginalPouzar

Ryan: You keep referring to risk. Perhaps that’s the corporate lender / lawyer in you. I’ve already addressed the “risk” in terms of a buyout next year in an old thread. Anyone can click on the buyout calculator at cap friendly.

Lagesson, Berglund, and Jones may never make it to the NHL let alone next season, so I wouldn’t worry about that. Bearand Boouchardboth could be ready or could take another year.

You’d hope to trade Faulk if Bouchard or Bear somehow are a better options than him next year.

I think your bias against Faulk is based upon the Green Jacket he’s wearing. The guy was minus -26 last season, so he must be garbage at 5v5. Right?

Jeff Petry was -25 in his last year on the Oilers, so he’s garbage too, right? I wouldn’t want that Jeff Petry guy playing in my top four because he was -25 the last time he played for us. As an aside, I was reading trade proposals at HF Boards for the Leafs the other day. They (leaf fans) were ready package a 1st plus for Petry, but were cognizant of the fact that they couldn’t manage his cap hit.

There’s been endless debate amongst bigger nerds than myself and the consensus as recently as I understand it is that dmen do not influence on ice save percentage.

Faulk had a .904 SV % at 5v5 last season.League average was .923!!! He also had a PDO of .968. With league average SV, that would have been 13 goals against knocked off alone

League average SH% last leason was 7.8% Faulk was on for 6.43. League average on ice shooting % yields another 5 goals.

No, my analysis of Faulk is not based on his plus/minus, as per my first post, its based mainly on watching him play. Yes, I only saw 4 CAR games last year but he was awful in all of them and that is what I base my analysis on plus regression of traditional metrics (i.e 12 even strength points this past year).

The Faulk that I saw in those 4 games, I don’t want him, I think he may make the team worse – not sure he’s even a 3rd pairing guy at evens.

Hasn’t Faulk always had a very low on ice save percentage?

Yes, I guess a buyout mitigates risk a bit but its still adding a contract that we KNOW will cause cap issues and require disposal of cap space and, to me, for a player that is simply not good enough to warrant any such risk (not to mention assets out to get him).

OriginalPouzar

Gerta Rauss:
OriginalPouzar,

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/7/3/5865615/flyers-salary-cap-pronger-ltir

I encourage you to read the above link regarding LTIR- the link is specific to Pronger but it translates directly to Sekera

*edit
I found this item as well

http://thehockeyguys.net/timing-is-everything-maximizing-ltir-benefits/

*edit2-more broadstreet hockey

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/10/15/6951103/why-long-term-injured-reserve-is-not-good

I will read after the gym, thank you.

OriginalPouzar

Wilde:
Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

Yes, I agree with the majority opinion of most of those moves to varying degrees.

Cooper Marody – I’m higher on this prospect than most.

Mikko Koskinen – I like this more than most because I don’t actually value the 2018-19 season for the Oilers. Goaltending future was a problem and if you get Carter Hutton you know he’s a backup. Koskinen could be a starter, could also give Talbot a bunch of games off and we can observe how much better he is with some rest and that eases the risk of a another ~4 year deal on him.

Evan Bouchard – Preferred Oliver Wahlstrom, Joel Farabee, Ty Smith, Ryan Merkley.

Ryan McLeod – Preferred Akil Thomas, Ruslan Ishkakov(thought he’d be there at our 3rd, though, so this isn’t fair criticism because he would have been taken before I got the chance), David Gustafsson, Bode Wilde.

Olivier Rodrigue – Preferred Johnny Gruden, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev(You can choose not to believe this but I just spelled that from memory), Nik Nordgren.

Drake Caggiula – A lot of people are very down on this contract, I’m even lower. Deadly serious.

Jakub Jerabek – Higher on this guy than most. If it’s true he played right-side, too, even better move. I like the European depth Dmen Chia goes after

I’m more concerned about the coaching staff than the GM right now. A lot of the bad moves made by GM’s are when they think they’re cleaning up the last guys’ mess and throw the baby out with the bathwater, or they’re desperate and make a short-term move.

Chia’s past the cleaning phase (in which he devastated this organisation) and now this summer he’s shown he won’t make a desperate short-term move.

So I think Peters’ damage has mostly been done, besides whatever opportunity cost there is having a GM that isn’t trusted to make big moves. Who knows what trades are floating out there that he can’t execute, and that goes both ways.

The coaching staff though… They can still lose Puljujarvi, they can rush Bouchard, Jay Woodcroft is tasked with producing good productive depth forwards as a guy who in his last 5 years in San Jose ran a team’s offense that was 13th, 20th, 25th, 8th and 22nd in 5v5 GF/60 while equipped with well above league average forward corps and transitional defencemen.

I’m probably just as high on Marody as anyone – didn’t think much of the trade/him until I watched 4 Michigan games post trade and was pleasantly surprised with his game and skill level.

The issue with the Koskinen overpay is that the cap space (extra $1.5M over Montoya, probably a good $1M overpay (if not more) given no reasonable comparable and Francouz at $690K) is took away cap space that could have been used, for example, to sign Nurse for term.

We can all like or dislike draft picks but its such an inexact process, in particular as you get past the top half of the first round. Sure, I guess one can like guys like Whalstrom over Bouchard but its tough to argue against the puck, to me, when it fills a need and is also arguably the BPA (arguably) and its value for the McKenzie consensus pick. Past that, for example, the McLeod pick and even moreso Rodrigue, I guess we can all have preferences but we are talking less than a 50% chance of an NHL career, so, given the org didn’t go off the board (and actually got severe value vis-a-vis projetion), to me, tough to argue.

To me, the coaching hires are massive, absolutely massive and are the biggest acquisitions of the off-season as far as this year’s team.

—————————-

Doesn’t your post kind of help prove the point you are responding to though? Even moves that are, for the most part, univerally accepted as good, are being questioned – (1) the coaching staff, (2) Rodrigue and (3) Bouchard.

I mean, we got Bouchard 3 places after he was ranked on the “consensus”, he was, arguably the BPA and definitely fits a position of needs but yet the response is to reference other players that would have been preferred.

Side

Wilde,

Good read. Thank you.

Wilde

OriginalPouzar: Another bad move to take on a bad contract (even without material assets going out)

Not to pile on, but surely this is hyperbole?

You wouldn’t take Faulk even if it costed zero material assets?

What price would you take him at? Any?

Ryan

leadfarmer:
Seems like Faulks biggest issue last year was being paired with Fleury.Seems like a lot of people that were willing to give Demers a pass for not playing well with Matheson are willing to put the nail in Faulk for playing with Fleury who was his most common partner.
Faulk actually did pretty well in the HDCF%department.It’s just all the against ended up in the back of his net.
What I’m finding is with Carolinas sieves in net their advanced stats are useful for one thing.Being fired into the sun.
Cause you have such fun numbers like
Pesce GF% without Slavin – 24%
Slavin without Pesce – 35%.I mean this is a top defensive dman here!!!
Slavin HDGF without Pesce – 41%

Slavin and Faulk HDCF 60%.Looks pretty darn good.Add goalies to the equation.44%
Corsi with -57%Fenwick with 57% Looks good
GF % 39!!!

So Hurricanes numbers i guess show two things.
1.Jordan Staal is very good at hockeying
2.Hurricanes pay a lot of money for cardboard goalie trainer quality goaltending

The only way to see through the fog is TOI.

Let’s start with a few assumptions. Not all may be correct.

1. Any active (or recently active) NHL coach knows more about evaluating defencsemen than we do.
2. Any active NHL coach deploys his dmen with the intent of providing the possible chance of winning a hockey game acting in his own and team’s mutual self -interest.

TOI.

Last season Fault was 2nd on the Canes in TOI/60 at 5v5. This a team with an emerging and talented blue line. 1st on PP toi/60. At all strengths? 2nd! Fire him into the Sun.

Two years ago.

Second all strength. First at 5v5. First at PP.

Three years ago.

1st at all strengths. 1st PP. 2nd 5v5.

Given the options Bill Peters had to deploy, clearly Faulk is an “actual top four defenseman.”

Ryan

OriginalPouzar: This is year 1 of an 8 year contract for McDavid – of course, we never want to “waste” any years including “McDavid years”, but management needs to remain patient and smart.Another bad move to take on a bad contract (even without material assets going out) has the potential to have an even more egregious effect on the future years than wasting this year would have.

Taking on Faulk’s contract for next season comes with WAY too much risk for me given his recent level of performance. The cap situation for next off-season may not be any better than this off-season without that contract.

I agree that Faulk provides PP cover but, given how bad he’s been at evens, I can’t agree that he woudl for sure be one of the top 6 for next season (not with the likes of Bouchard, Bear, Lagesson, Berglund, Jones, etc.) in the picture

You keep referring to risk. Perhaps that’s the corporate lender / lawyer in you. I’ve already addressed the “risk” in terms of a buyout next year in an old thread. Anyone can click on the buyout calculator at cap friendly.

Lagesson, Berglund, and Jones may never make it to the NHL let alone next season, so I wouldn’t worry about that. Bear and Boouchard both could be ready or could take another year.

You’d hope to trade Faulk if Bouchard or Bear somehow are a better options than him next year.

I think your bias against Faulk is based upon the Green Jacket he’s wearing. The guy was minus -26 last season, so he must be garbage at 5v5. Right?

Jeff Petry was -25 in his last year on the Oilers, so he’s garbage too, right? I wouldn’t want that Jeff Petry guy playing in my top four because he was -25 the last time he played for us. As an aside, I was reading trade proposals at HF Boards for the Leafs the other day. They (leaf fans) were ready package a 1st plus for Petry, but were cognizant of the fact that they couldn’t manage his cap hit.

There’s been endless debate amongst bigger nerds than myself and the consensus as recently as I understand it is that dmen do not influence on ice save percentage.

Faulk had a .904 SV % at 5v5 last season.League average was .923!!! He also had a PDO of .968. With league average SV, that would have been 13 goals against knocked off alone

League average SH% last leason was 7.8% Faulk was on for 6.43. League average on ice shooting % yields another 5 goals.

JimmyV1965

There’s a group of four unsigned RFA dmen; Nurse, Morissey, Hannifan and Theodore. I suspect when the first one signs, the rest will follow shortly later.

Glovjuice

Wilde:
Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

Yes, I agree with the majority opinion of most of those moves to varying degrees.

Cooper Marody – I’m higher on this prospect than most.

Mikko Koskinen – I like this more than most because I don’t actually value the 2018-19 season for the Oilers. Goaltending future was a problem and if you get Carter Hutton you know he’s a backup. Koskinen could be a starter, could also give Talbot a bunch of games off and we can observe how much better he is with some rest and that eases the risk of a another ~4 year deal on him.

Evan Bouchard – Preferred Oliver Wahlstrom, Joel Farabee, Ty Smith, Ryan Merkley.

Ryan McLeod – Preferred Akil Thomas, Ruslan Ishkakov(thought he’d be there at our 3rd, though, so this isn’t fair criticism because he would have been taken before I got the chance), David Gustafsson, Bode Wilde.

Olivier Rodrigue – Preferred Johnny Gruden, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev(You can choose not to believe this but I just spelled that from memory), Nik Nordgren.

Drake Caggiula – A lot of people are very down on this contract, I’m even lower. Deadly serious.

Jakub Jerabek – Higher on this guy than most. If it’s true he played right-side, too, even better move. I like the European depth Dmen Chia goes after

I’m more concerned about the coaching staff than the GM right now. A lot of the bad moves made by GM’s are when they think they’re cleaning up the last guys’ mess and throw the baby out with the bathwater, or they’re desperate and make a short-term move.

Chia’s past the cleaning phase (in which he devastated this organisation) and now this summer he’s shown he won’t make a desperate short-term move.

So I think Peters’ damage has mostly been done, besides whatever opportunity cost there is having a GM that isn’t trusted to make big moves. Who knows what trades are floating out there that he can’t execute, and that goes both ways.

The coaching staff though… They can still lose Puljujarvi, they can rush Bouchard, Jay Woodcroft is tasked with producing good productive depth forwards as a guy who in his last 5 years in San Jose ran a team’s offense that was 13th, 20th, 25th, 8th and 22nd in 5v5 GF/60 while equipped with well above league average forward corps and transitional defencemen.

this is perfect – I agree with every single point

Foege Foegele Torpe

dustrock:
I didn’t realize Garrison was still playing in the NHL.

Bold move.

Bold move.
Bad move.
Bald move.
Chia

Gerta Rauss

OriginalPouzar,

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/7/3/5865615/flyers-salary-cap-pronger-ltir

I encourage you to read the above link regarding LTIR- the link is specific to Pronger but it translates directly to Sekera

*edit
I found this item as well

http://thehockeyguys.net/timing-is-everything-maximizing-ltir-benefits/

*edit2-more broadstreet hockey

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/10/15/6951103/why-long-term-injured-reserve-is-not-good

Gerta Rauss

hags9k:
I’m way behind these days…Can someone clarify for me how Sekera’s injury effects the Nurse negotiations?

Do we now have freed $ to possibly do a long term deal? (my preference!)
Or do we need to wait for the season to start to LTIR Rej and therefore it has no impact on a deal done before camp, meaning we are still looking at a bridge?

Thanks if anyone can smarten me up here.

N64 has posted that cap friendly ltir doc above-I encourage you to read it

Waiting for the season to start is 1 option for the Oilers re: LTIR, but it’s not the only option. The Oilers can place Sekera on LTIR on the last day of training camp. I encourage you to read the below link- it’s 4 years old and it’s in regards to the Pronger situation with the Flyers, but it’s directly relevant to Sekera’s situation with the Oilers

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/7/3/5865615/flyers-salary-cap-pronger-ltir

*edit- I found this item as well
http://thehockeyguys.net/timing-is-everything-maximizing-ltir-benefits/

*edit2-another excellent article by broadstreet hockey-the Philly fans have a lot of experience with this

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/10/15/6951103/why-long-term-injured-reserve-is-not-good

Wilde

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

Yes, I agree with the majority opinion of most of those moves to varying degrees.

Cooper Marody – I’m higher on this prospect than most.

Mikko Koskinen – I like this more than most because I don’t actually value the 2018-19 season for the Oilers. Goaltending future was a problem and if you get Carter Hutton you know he’s a backup. Koskinen could be a starter, could also give Talbot a bunch of games off and we can observe how much better he is with some rest and that eases the risk of a another ~4 year deal on him.

Evan Bouchard – Preferred Oliver Wahlstrom, Joel Farabee, Ty Smith, Ryan Merkley.

Ryan McLeod – Preferred Akil Thomas, Ruslan Ishkakov(thought he’d be there at our 3rd, though, so this isn’t fair criticism because he would have been taken before I got the chance), David Gustafsson, Bode Wilde.

Olivier Rodrigue – Preferred Johnny Gruden, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev(You can choose not to believe this but I just spelled that from memory), Nik Nordgren.

Drake Caggiula – A lot of people are very down on this contract, I’m even lower. Deadly serious.

Jakub Jerabek – Higher on this guy than most. If it’s true he played right-side, too, even better move. I like the European depth Dmen Chia goes after

I’m more concerned about the coaching staff than the GM right now. A lot of the bad moves made by GM’s are when they think they’re cleaning up the last guys’ mess and throw the baby out with the bathwater, or they’re desperate and make a short-term move.

Chia’s past the cleaning phase (in which he devastated this organisation) and now this summer he’s shown he won’t make a desperate short-term move.

So I think Peters’ damage has mostly been done, besides whatever opportunity cost there is having a GM that isn’t trusted to make big moves. Who knows what trades are floating out there that he can’t execute, and that goes both ways.

The coaching staff though… They can still lose Puljujarvi, they can rush Bouchard, Jay Woodcroft is tasked with producing good productive depth forwards as a guy who in his last 5 years in San Jose ran a team’s offense that was 13th, 20th, 25th, 8th and 22nd in 5v5 GF/60 while equipped with well above league average forward corps and transitional defencemen.

Glovjuice

London Jon:
Starting to look very deep in the 7D spot!!

ah ha ha hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaaa – that’s funny.

€√¥£€^$

rickithebear,

My thoughts are with you Ricki!

rickithebear

Nurse the dman?
Known CHL scouts and I have observed a rover named Nurse.
But there is no Dman.
Cup win wise Nurse the rover has no value.

I did see a dman named nurse in WJC that was an unbelievable HD anchor for that team.
Have not seen him in the NHL.
Thought he could be a cup core anchor 1st comp HD dman like our current #1 Larrson.
So rare and worth about anything to get.

We did bring a dman that was part of the best PvP HD Dpair in NHl few years ago.
He was a 1.99 to 1.16 exp EVGA paired with HD dman till last year in Vegas.
Do not Know what is left?

Sitting in the hotel going to get chemo/ transplant port tomorow.

Go Oilers!

jp

HT Joe: Thanks for the response.

You’re predicting Drai at 50%… sorry for my ignorance but do you know whereabouts he was last year?Thanks!!

At 5X5 Drai was actually 49.17 GF% last year, though McDavid was his most common line mate. Without McDavid Drai was 42.4%

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

Wilde: – Ty Rattie

– Tobias Rieder

– Evan Bouchard

– Ryan McLeod

– Cooper Marody

– Jakub Jerabek

– Kyle Brodziak

– Pontus Aberg

– Joel Persson

– Scottie Upshall

– Matt Benning

In fact, I think just in raw numbers there’s been more positively-reacted-to acquisitions/re-signings since the deadline last year than than negatively reacted to –

– Eric Gryba buyout

– Mikko Koskinen (mixed)

–Drake Caggiula

– Olivier Rodrigue (mixed)

– Jason Garrison

I hope you don’t consider this as a flaying, but I will say rather confidently that I think this is an overstating of the slant of the lens on recent moves here. Most of the negativity surrounding the general manager is in discussions about moves last summer or prior. If the amount of moves lauded as good literally outnumbers the amount opposite, it’s pretty silly to say that this place is incapable of doing anything but dismissing Chiarelli’s moves.

A good point and you have listed what I absolutely agree are some good moves. There is negativity by some about most of these moves though. I am sorry I can’t back that up with quotes.

I think my own negativity about negativity (is that metanegativity or epinegativity?) is that fundamentally it is tiresome and doesn’t stimulate discussion. I’m frustrated with the poor performance of this team, the mystifying behavior of the coach, the fact that Lowe & McTavish are still here, so maybe I’m just cranky!

But I do appreciate you responding – I find your reply to be positive!

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

hunter1909:
Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

Although part of me is probably going to be foolishly optimistic for at least 1-2 games into the season…

The reality is, the Oilers are run by people who seem more like underaged groupies at an 1980’s post Whisky-A Go-Go party for Motley Crue, than hockey executives.

Indeed! It boggles my mind everyday that Kevin Lowe and Craig McTavish still have jobs with this team!

Wilde

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour:
Also can I ask why it is that ANY move by this team management is routinely and summarily dismissed? I get there is angst but the level of naysaying is in my humble opinion off the charts.

– Ty Rattie

– Tobias Rieder

– Evan Bouchard

– Ryan McLeod

– Cooper Marody

– Jakub Jerabek

– Kyle Brodziak

– Pontus Aberg

– Joel Persson

– Scottie Upshall

– Matt Benning

In fact, I think just in raw numbers there’s been more positively-reacted-to acquisitions/re-signings since the deadline last year than than negatively reacted to –

– Eric Gryba buyout

– Mikko Koskinen (mixed)

– Drake Caggiula

– Olivier Rodrigue (mixed)

– Jason Garrison

I hope you don’t consider this as a flaying, but I will say rather confidently that I think this is an overstating of the slant of the lens on recent moves here. Most of the negativity surrounding the general manager is in discussions about moves last summer or prior. If the amount of moves lauded as good literally outnumbers the amount opposite, it’s pretty silly to say that this place is incapable of doing anything but dismissing Chiarelli’s moves.

hunter1909

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

Although part of me is probably going to be foolishly optimistic for at least 1-2 games into the season…

The reality is, the Oilers are run by people who seem more like underaged groupies at an 1980’s post Whisky-A Go-Go party for Motley Crue, than hockey executives.

hunter1909

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour: Also can I ask why it is that ANY move by this team management is routinely and summarily dismissed? I get there is angst but the level of naysaying is in my humble opinion off the charts.
It’s not informative it just feels like habitual axe grinding.
Are there so many way better options that taking a look at Upshall or Garrison on a PTO is another catastrophe?
Oh I just bet I’m going to get flayed for saying this….

Well…

After suffering the way we all have for a decade plus, only to see Taylor Hall dealt for a decent but not 1st pairing defenceman, opening up a huge hole plus Eberle, plus…oh man…don’t make us relive it.

Wilde

Side: Side

Sorry, just getting to this now.

What I think is the major-majority likelihood is that Evan Bouchard can’t make reads and execute gaps at NHL speed straight out of junior.

Its kind of glossed over with his play that he’s struggled in the OHL defensively – drafting him is very much making a bet that he can become passable-to-good in this area to complement his extraordinary ability to pass the puck in all three zones.

(This may be partially due to the size and frame he possesses compared to his 2018 draft peers, he’s a mature bodied offensive defenceman in a draft class famous for its undersized versions of the same, and it’s assumed from there that he’s better defensively than the smaller guys)

But, with players of his numerical stature, it seems the only failure cases are players who went straight to the NHL. Therefore, again, it would seem the only way to fuck this up is by playing him in the NHL early.

My brand of analysis isn’t particularly focused on the psychological aspect of the game and the players’ life, partly because I’m cognizant I know nothing in this area and partly because I think that part of the discourse is bloatedly oversaturated as it is.

I’ll wade into those waters for a second here though.

Let’s suppose that Evan Bouchard has effectively the same audition in impact as Ethan Bear’s last year, maybe a bit better offensively, gets more done on the powerplay, better boxcars.

This wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world when you’re evaluating the player; a 19 year old defenseman outperforms one of the better 21 year old defencemen call-ups from the AHL, outperforms an older player who has probably an above 50% chance of playing a significant amount of games in the NHL in his career.

But Ethan Bear also went 7-17 in 5v5 goals in 18 games – for a 9 game audition that’d be what, 4-9 rounded up both ways?

I’ve been reading a ton on war models, and the accepted GAR to WAR conversion is that about 4 and a half goals is a worth a win.

So then, Evan Bouchard will have on his own costed the team a game in the critical opening part of the schedule.

Contrast that to the call-up of Ethan Bear: It’s garbage time, whatever, see what he’s got, oh he’s missing coverage and leaving gaps, that’s fine he’s 20.

Versus, in a critical season, a young players’ first NHL games(and first league games as an asset of the organisation) consisting of him costing the team while the spotlight is shining bright – October in Edmonton.

There’s probably a big difference in what each player brings back, in their head and their heart, to the lower leagues they’ll work on their game in.

He may take it in stride, take it as ‘I am very far from an NHL defencemen defensively’ and work extra hard in the OHL.

He may even say that to himself.

But it may not help.

And that’d be through no fault of his own, we could reckon the same thing happened to Kailer Yamamoto based on his cold return to Spokane, and that’s as an individual who’s known in his community for his resilience and humility.

You could do a bunch of things; spread the games out against weaker teams; play him in extremely sheltered minutes; concoct any number of developmental techniques.

Or you could keep him down, and have him join the club of defencemen with his scoring acumen who didn’t enter the NHL in their draft+1 year.

Which is a group of defencemen with an enormously high rate of converting into high-value long-term assets.

I’d suggest a year in the OHL with a focus of making stops and turning pucks over through anticipation and reads, then a start in the AHL the next year with an identical mandate.

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

leadfarmer:
Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

The word was he turned down a PTO cause he was expecting a contract.He did not get one.But he probably wanted a turn with a franchise that doesn’t know him this well

That’s what I understood. But then my pessimism with the level of rhetoric is this: HAD the Oilers offered him a contract the immediate reaction would have been to complain the about the number of contracts, the cap, the damage to developing players, etc.

There no way make a move without having an iinstantaneous negative reaction. Invite no one on a PTO – “they aren’t doing enough”. Invite more competition for 7/8 D options – “more team slowing”, “should have kept Gryba”. Then inevitably “Gryba sucked”.

And on and on. A Möbius strip complaint cycle. Maybe I’m just crabby cause I’m old and my back hurts!

jtblack

some of these quotes about Garrisson are Funny!

Got the 7D market locked up!

If Nurse is not signed to play game 1, then how does everyone feel about the team ?

N64

OriginalPouzar: I’m sure this has been answered but the team has to be compliant with the cap on day 1 of the season. LTIR doesn’t get rid of the player’s cap hit but, if the team is at the cap, it provides a cushion to go over the cap (but not until after they are compliant on day 1).

Are you saying you can’t use the cushion until you meet some day 1 test without it?

Because capgeek is very clear that the ltir and the ltir reflief cushion are both in play before day 1 i.e. during training camp.

https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq#training-camp-example

The only thing special about day 1 is that your lose the 10% overrun and your net after ltir and ltir relief has to fit 100% not 110%.

leadfarmer

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

The word was he turned down a PTO cause he was expecting a contract. He did not get one. But he probably wanted a turn with a franchise that doesn’t know him this well

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

Davidson turned them down no? I thought that was the word last week and if I recall he was praised by someone here for turning the Oilers down.

Also can I ask why it is that ANY move by this team management is routinely and summarily dismissed? I get there is angst but the level of naysaying is in my humble opinion off the charts.

It’s not informative it just feels like habitual axe grinding.

Are there so many way better options that taking a look at Upshall or Garrison on a PTO is another catastrophe?

Oh I just bet I’m going to get flayed for saying this….

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar,

Well that’s not going to help team speed

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: He had 10 PTO offers and one was from the Oilers.

One thing about Katz, is he lets them spend. Garrison in the A where he finished last year is at least there is an experienced call up. Third pair maybe he floats

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer:
Jason Garrison?But why?Why didn’t we just bring in Davidson?

He had 10 PTO offers and one was from the Oilers.

dustrock

I didn’t realize Garrison was still playing in the NHL.

Bold move.

leadfarmer

Seems like Faulks biggest issue last year was being paired with Fleury. Seems like a lot of people that were willing to give Demers a pass for not playing well with Matheson are willing to put the nail in Faulk for playing with Fleury who was his most common partner.
Faulk actually did pretty well in the HDCF%department. It’s just all the against ended up in the back of his net.
What I’m finding is with Carolinas sieves in net their advanced stats are useful for one thing. Being fired into the sun.
Cause you have such fun numbers like
Pesce GF% without Slavin – 24%
Slavin without Pesce – 35%. I mean this is a top defensive dman here!!!
Slavin HDGF without Pesce – 41%

Slavin and Faulk HDCF 60%. Looks pretty darn good. Add goalies to the equation. 44%
Corsi with -57% Fenwick with 57% Looks good
GF % 39!!!

So Hurricanes numbers i guess show two things.
1. Jordan Staal is very good at hockeying
2. Hurricanes pay a lot of money for cardboard goalie trainer quality goaltending

Scungilli Slushy

The best way to evaluate D on other teams would be playing them and by eye.

There are only a few players at any position that are exceptional. Decending order from there.

Good players can do the essential job description reliably. For D to me that is break up sorties before the D zone, reliably defend the HDSCA, retrieve the puck and send it up ice in a good way reliably.

If they can add offense they are a very good player. If they can add exceptional offense they are elite.

A qualifier is being a shutdown player against elites. That is a very good player that sacrifices offense often for the greater good like Larsson. Or Vlasic.

Scungilli Slushy

I don’t think the Oilers need offensive players as much as guys who can saw off no matter the offense. If they add fantastic.

It’s GA that hurts them most. Special teams will return to at least average or the coach will be fired and they will go to average. We know current PPs don’t rely on a big D shooter, those days are in the past.

The additions of competent NHL role players will make a big difference IMO. Rieder, Upshall, Brodziak.

Garrison to me seems more like a favour than a helpful option. If he’s willing to play in the A and hope for a call up great.

HT Joe

jtblack: HT Joe

Thanks for the response.

You’re predicting Drai at 50%… sorry for my ignorance but do you know whereabouts he was last year? Thanks!!

leadfarmer

Jason Garrison? But why? Why didn’t we just bring in Davidson?

OriginalPouzar

Ryan: Well, betting on a Jerabek or Benning to take a step forward is a bad plan when you’ve missed the playoffs 2 out of the last three seasons.

If the Oilers incur a significant injury to anyone of Nurse, Kbomb, or Larsson, it’s like a knocking a leg off a three-legged table.

Even if all three stay healthy, it’s not an enviable blue line. If Klefbomb gets injured, I can’t imagine what our PP stats will look like.

I’m not one to prevaricate here.

To sewer another McDavid season would be a disaster. We’re already flirting with disaster with our blue line.

If the cost of acquisition is reasonable, Faulk would at the very least provide depth to the power play while nearly certainly being one of our top six best defenseman next season.

This is year 1 of an 8 year contract for McDavid – of course, we never want to “waste” any years including “McDavid years”, but management needs to remain patient and smart. Another bad move to take on a bad contract (even without material assets going out) has the potential to have an even more egregious effect on the future years than wasting this year would have.

Taking on Faulk’s contract for next season comes with WAY too much risk for me given his recent level of performance. The cap situation for next off-season may not be any better than this off-season without that contract.

I agree that Faulk provides PP cover but, given how bad he’s been at evens, I can’t agree that he woudl for sure be one of the top 6 for next season (not with the likes of Bouchard, Bear, Lagesson, Berglund, Jones, etc.) in the picture

russ99

Not too sure Faulk comes here, his NMC kicked in this summer, so he has some say where he goes if Carolina is moving him.

Chicago is also rumored to be chasing him and they have room to fit him under the cap now, and likely a higher spot in the D rotation than we have to give.

Also, players likely don’t look at one season whe making these decisions, and if he comes here’s that’s a real nasty NMC/LTIR logjam were looking at next summer when we have to pay Jesse and a goalie. I suspect two at least are on the way out next summer.

Ryan

hags9k:
I’m way behind these days…Can someone clarify for me how Sekera’s injury effects the Nurse negotiations?

Do we now have freed $ to possibly do a long term deal? (my preference!)
Or do we need to wait for the season to start to LTIR Rej and therefore it has no impact on a deal done before camp, meaning we are still looking at a bridge?

Thanks if anyone can smarten me up here.

I’m not the capologist here, but no it doesn’t free up any money today to sign Nurse long term.

That’s a good question. I don’t think you can use Rej’s LTIR to extend Nurse long term even if you wait for the start of the season to extend nurse.