Little PTO

The Edmonton Oilers signed another player to a PTO contract yesterday, this time long shot defenseman Jason Garrison. Does the multiple non-roster invite ever work? Yes! Let me tell you the story.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

THE 1987 MONTREAL EXPOS

One of my all-time favourite teams, they had so little pitching the club decided to invite every broken down arm in Christendom. Joaquin Andujar, Bill Campbell, Ubaldo Heredia, Bob McClure, Dennis Martinez, Pascual Perez, Lary Sorensen, Dave Tomlin, the Expos brought them all to training camp and gave everyone a shot. You know what? Martinez became the ace of the staff, Pascual Perez was brilliant down the stretch and McClure found a home in the bullpen. The rejects went 27-10 (I’m not kidding) and the Expos won 91 games. It happened just this way.

JASON GARRISON

If Todd McLellan found Mark Fayne and Eric Gryba wanting in terms of foot speed, he’s going to get frustrated quickly by sundial Garrison. It’s a curious move, I had a fleeting thought that it might be an effort to send a message to the Nurse camp, but Garrison had issues with the boots three years ago. A nice opportunity for the player to showcase his skills but Keegan Lowe has a better chance to make the Oilers this fall.

CERTAIN OILERS

  • My estimates have the McDavid line (Yamamoto replacing Rattie mid-season, so using Yamamoto’s numbers but not Rattie’s for this conversation) coming in around 85 goals. Last season the Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl trio scored 80 goals. The key will be the No. 2 line. By the way, the estimates (and the measure from last year) are the names and all goals scored. I have Nuge and McDavid scoring new career highs.

  • My estimates have the No. 2 line morphing into Rieder-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi by mid-season, and the goal total coming in around 55. Last season’s No. 2 line (Lucic-Nuge-Puljujarvi) scored 46.

  • Oilers defense scored 32 goals a year ago, 35 in 2016-17. I have them in the same range this year, Oscar Klefbom leading the way.

UNCERTAIN OILERS

  • Pontus Aberg and Kailer Yamamoto are the main players on this list among forwards.
  • The five defensemen listed here will be working for two or three jobs. Evan Bouchard is a strong option for opening night, suspect that means the organization will carry eight defensemen early in the year.
  • As Mikko Koskinen’s hold on the backup job increases, that may mean Al Montoya is dealt or sent to Bakersfield. Edmonton could use him as insurance and mentor in the AHL.

THE DISTANT BELLS

  • Tyler Benson has a clear path to the NHL. He’ll have to impress in Bakersfield but there’s a job waiting when he’s ready.
  • Jason Garrison played in the NHL and AHL last season, just a few games with the Vegas Golden Knights and the rest with the Chicago Wolves. His 5-on-5 goal differential in the minors (38-34) trailed Jake Bischoff (63-46) and Griffin Reinhart (38-28) among regulars.

50-MAN SEPTEMBER 1, 2017

CURRENT 50-MAN 

Which one is better?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A full boat this morning, beginning at 10 on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Is there another PTO on the way? Can Upshall or Garrison make the team?
  • Bob Baum, Associated Press. How many wins for the Arizona Cardinals.
  • Paul Andrew Esden Jr, The Score 1260. New York Jets! What are they about this year?
  • Jeff Paulus, FC Edmonton coach. We’ll get a progress update on the team and the latest news.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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141 Responses to "Little PTO"

  1. flyfish1168 says:

    There is a group of them all waiting to sign. The dominos will fall as soon as one of them sets the salary bar. JMHO

    https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/defenseman/rfa/available/

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve got no problem with the Garrison PTO but definitely see him as a long shot to make the team.

    He played the vast majority of last season in the AHL (although, from accounts, was a good professional down there and a good mentor).

    Prior to getting sick, Gravel was establishing himself as an every day d-man for LA and Jarabek, from accounts, played quite a bit of 2nd pairing with a fairly weak partner (Benn) in Montreal and had good metrics.

    Both Gravel and Jarabek have been playing mainly their off-side, the right side, recently.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think 85 goals for the “McDavid trio” may end up being shy assuming McDavid healthy.

    Assuming McDavid health, I would think he’s over 40 for sure and pushing 50.

    If Nuge is his full time left wing, I think he pushes 30.

    I think the right wing combo has to be over 20 for the year, no?

    ———————–

    I also don’t see Rattie lasting on 1RW – Jesse may take that job. Kailer may take that job.

    I also don’t see Nuge as a full 82 game 1LW – they will very likely need him to play center for parts of the year.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I will be disappointed if Aberg isn’t given a real shot in camp and hits the waiver wire. In particular, he should get a real shot in the top 6 as he has nice speed and skill and has shown the ability to produce at the NHL level.

    Consistency has been his problem and he’ll need to find it in order to stick in the top 6 but he did produce at a 1.99 P/60 as an Oiler (at 5 on 5) which is very good production – yes, most of that production was during a 3 game heater but the kid has offensive talent, which the team lacks on the wing. At $675K, with the potential to produce, I believe this player needs a shot – this could be a big value contract and I’m remiss to waive it given the cap crunch.

  5. jtblack says:

    ” I have Nuge and McDavid scoring new career highs.”

    Me too. Fingers crossed for good health.

    RNH had 48 points in 62 games last year. Pro rates to 63 Points over 82 games. His career high is 56.

    Throw in a full season playing mostly with Super Nova and he should easily surpass his career high AND push the limits of 75 points. Go RNH.

    I think Connor can take a shot at Joe Thronton’s modern (post 2005) day record of 125 points. Go Connor.

    The Garrison signing makes no sense to me. That is all.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Absolutely I have zero desire to trade Montoya and I hope he clears waivers.

    Who gets the call-up if there is an injury? Skinner and Wells are first year pros. Starrett isn’t a real option.

    I would like Montoya to split the duties in Bakersfield with Skinner – we’ll see if Skinner is ready for the AHL or if he will be splitting the games in the ECHL with Wells (and Starrett in the AHL).

  7. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I think Garrison keeps Gravel Jarabek Bear and Bouchard Lowe honest

    – There won’t be a D at camp who will work harder than Garrison, and that’s guarantee: dude is playing for his career. If any of those 5 D don’t want their job taken by a 33 year old: work harder than this pro

    – For that alone, its a good move IMO

    – By the way LT you don’t have Jarabek as a certain Oiler or uncertain Oiler but he’s on your 50 man

    – Wouldn’t by order on paper the competition for 6/7 D be:

    Gravel
    Jarabek
    Bouchard
    Lowe
    Bear
    Garrison

    – Really it’s a list with many attributes of D but 6 7’s don’t turn into 4’s (which is what we need)

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, if Bouchard breaks camp with the team, I see them carrying 8D and only 13F.

    I can see Bouchard being slow-played and spot-started at home. Is there are real potential to dress 7D and 11F when Bouchard plays to further shelter him and provide some extra ice to McDavid, Drai and co.?

    When (if) Bouchard gets re-assigned, that could trigger the Yamamoto recall.

  9. Spindoctor says:

    The choice to sign Garrison to a PTO feels like it’s simply a stop gap in the event that a deal can’t get done with Darnell Nurse. The bigger issue to me is that, if Nurse holds out, Garrison has an actual chance to make the roster. If our D core is depleted enough that a guy who couldn’t make the depth charts in Vegas(and lost a spot to the likes of Sbisa), it really is a statement about how barren our defensive cupboards really are.

  10. Coiler says:

    Garrison? Really? All due respect but I don’t understand the sense in bringing in someone who fits the bill of players the current coach didn’t want on his team in the first place. Garrison is going to take up time and space on the ice that would be better served by giving it to the kids for their development and assessment.

    I’d be curious to know who advises Chia on these matters. Is it the scouting department? Asst GM? Or does Chia wake up in the morning and take a cursory glace at a list of available players that he can squeeze onto his roster and say to himself “Oh yeah, I like that guy. He made my Bruins look bad back in 2012”.

    More often than not band aid solutions don’t work….87 Expos being the exception of course.

  11. ArmchairGM says:

    Is Jerebek an Uncertain Oiler or a Certain Oiler? Or a Distant Bell?

  12. ArmchairGM says:

    flyfish1168:
    There is a group of them all waiting to sign. The dominos will fall as soon as one of them sets the salary bar. JMHO

    https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/defenseman/rfa/available/

    I see this and raise you this:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/165345

  13. 106 and 106 says:

    flyfish1168,

    That link is old.

    Benning (EDM) signed eons ago.

  14. 106 and 106 says:

    Spindoctor,

    Why would nurse say the other day at Biosteel he’s not certain he will be at camp.

    They can’t be that far apart on dollars can They?

    2 year 3.25 max?

  15. Melvis says:

    Little PTO
    You’re really lookin’ fine

    Missin’ three deuces and a four-speed
    And a three-eighty-nine

    Trailin Griffin Reinhart
    That’s all you need to know

  16. 106 and 106 says:

    But it’s a PTO, most likely like Chris Kelly last year and Bed sheet a few years ago.

    Sure see if he gained his boots over the off season.

    It’s not like he gave him a Kris Russell contract!

  17. 106 and 106 says:

    Chia might also have inside info that another Dman may not be 100% heading into camp.

  18. JimmyV1965 says:

    Tampa has played with seven defencemen and 11 forwards in the past. Maybe that’s something the Oil should do.

  19. frjohnk says:

    LT asks “Which one ( roster) is better?”

    As a group,” Reider, Brodziak, Aberg, Gravel are better than Maroon, Letestu, Gryba, Jokinen. But I would say that this years roster is better than last years, mostly because of continued growth from our young players and not so much from the guys that are new to the team.

  20. PinkSocks says:

    Changes up front from last year:

    1) Rattie in for Maroon – loss
    2) Reider in for Slepyshev – win
    3) Brodziak in for Letestu – wash

    On D its just Gravel/Jerabek in place of Gryba. That’s likely a wash or minor win.

    Koskinen should be better than Brossoit. Overall, maybe this year’s starting 23 are a tad better than last season. Development of JP and KY are key to any improvement, along with Talbot not letting in any first shot goals.

    The area that is vastly improved is those beyond the first 23 players. Seeing Benson, Marody, and Vesel in place of Laleggia Malone and Ferlin is a nice step in the right direction.

  21. Westchester Oil says:

    You ask if this year’s team is better than last year. The only meaningful loss from last year’s roster is Maroon. We’ve added Rieder and a 30-something in Brodziak. Hopefully Koskinen is better than Brossoit, but who knows. Good news is that McD, Pool party, KY, Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Drai are a year older. This is offset slightly by an older Lucic, Russell and Talbot. Overall, I think it is safe to say that we’re a bit better but I can’t claim for sire that we’re a lot better.

  22. JustWatt says:

    PinkSocks:
    Changes up front from last year:

    3) Brodziak in for Letestu – wash

    On D its just Gravel/Jerabek in place of Gryba.That’s likely a wash or minor win.

    Disagree with Brodziak = Letestu, Brodziak successfully played 4C, covered 3C, and was a decent PKer and before he was traded Letestu couldn’t do any of those things.

    Skating reports suggest Gravel and Jerabek are both a significant upgrade on Gryba.

  23. PinkSocks says:

    Bold prediction:

    Pontus Aberg is this year’s William Karlsson.

  24. Lowetide says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Is Jerebek an Uncertain Oiler or a Certain Oiler? Or a Distant Bell?

    I’m still deciding. 🙂

  25. PinkSocks says:

    JustWatt: Disagree with Brodziak = Letestu, Brodziak successfully played 4C, covered 3C, and was a decent PKer and before he was traded Letestu couldn’t do any of those things.

    Skating reports suggest Gravel and Jerabek are both a significant upgrade on Gryba.

    Letestu was bad last year in all situations; although a year older Brodziak who knows. I hope he is a significant upgrade.

    Jerabek I am very excited to see. His numbers all show good, especially in Montreal. Very astute signing. Gravel as well, he could be a very nice addition, but I wouldn’t call them a significant upgrade until they get more than 36&70 NHL games.

  26. digger50 says:

    If they kept Maroon and Auvitu, plus the new forward additions this summer, it would be easy to see this years group as better. Right now I choose this years roster due to internal development and new coaches. But the water is a bit murky.

    Every time they make a gain on the roster they seem to also lose a player of value.

  27. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I’m a fan of the 7 d, at least to start the season. I don’t think McLellan goes for it, but I like the idea of defense by committee and then a push in powerplay time for Bouchard, if he sticks past training camp. I’d still rather see him start the season in the AHL, but maybe the Sekera injury has changed the thinking a little.

    The other benefit is that the Oilers can drop a forward that has poor possession metrics (naming no names) and then run McD, Drai, Nuge in extra shifts to add more bite to the depth lines. McD is going to play north of 20 mins a night anyways.

  28. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Darth Tu,

    Evan Bouchard either sticks in the NHL or must report to the London Knights of the OHL as they hold his rights for another season. Next year is his initial eligibility for a pro league like the AHL if he again doesn’t crack the NHL lineup.

  29. JustWatt says:

    PinkSocks,

    Sure. I doubt any of these are significant upgrades, though Jarabek is intriguing, but I don’t think it’s hard to argue they are upgrades. Improving your 4C and 6/7D isn’t moving the needle much obviously.

  30. godot10 says:

    PinkSocks: Letestu was bad last year in all situations; although a year older Brodziak who knows.I hope he is a significant upgrade.

    Jerabek I am very excited to see.His numbers all show good, especially in Montreal.Very astute signing.Gravel as well, he could be a very nice addition, but I wouldn’t call them a significant upgrade until they get more than 36&70 NHL games.

    Was Letestu bad, or was he just playing with bad teammates. Kassian had an awful season.

  31. jtblack says:

    godot10: Was Letestu bad, or was he just playing with bad teammates.Kassian had an awful season.

    He was BAD.

  32. Durag says:

    One important subtraction people are forgetting, we lost Cap Space from last year’s roster. Though to be fair, he played like shit.

  33. PinkSocks says:

    godot10: Was Letestu bad, or was he just playing with bad teammates.Kassian had an awful season.

    I think he was bad. Really really bad.

    Kassian, like Lucic, both were bad because neither of them played their style. Head Coach likely to blame trying to reel them in. Kassian should be in the Rattie spot. He’ll score 15-20 there and earn his paycheck.

  34. Darth Tu says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Another year in junior might not be what he wants, but unless he’s a better option than what we have I’d rather he goes back down. Possibly replace Bouchard with Bear in the 7D slot?

  35. N64 says:

    Darth Tu: I’m a fan of the 7 d,

    ~ Well it’s a good thing you like 7D ‘cuz we made need ’em all to fill in our 3rd pair. ~

  36. ArmchairGM says:

    Darth Tu:
    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Another year in junior might not be what he wants, but unless he’s a better option than what we have I’d rather he goes back down.Possibly replace Bouchard with Bear in the 7D slot?

    Ryan Ellis went back to OHL for 2 more years after the draft, it doesn’t seem to have hurt him. Bouchard is only eligible for 1 more year, but I think he should go back to the OHL this year. If the Knights finish out of the playoffs he could come up for a cup of coffee.

  37. ArmchairGM says:

    I know it’s dreaming, but I like the suggestion in the link I posted earlier: trade Bear + Maksimov + 2019 1st to Vegas for Theodore, then sign both he and Nurse to matching bridge deals. Pretty sure Theodore can play on the right side… I know this creates a cap issue next summer, but we can deal with that in June.

  38. GriffCity says:

    I think that bringing Garrison in on a PTO is an excellent idea. I think the big thing a lot of people out there are missing is the fact that Garrison, when he got to Vegas last season, had one year remaining on a deal that paid him 4.6 million dollars. Thats a lot of cake when you are an expansion team and had options like Shea Theodore, Colin Miller, Braden Mcnabb and heck even Brad Hunt, all coming in at way way less than what Garrison would have been making….It’s not that Garrison wasn’t good enough for the NHL last season, it is that the expansion Golden Knights had cheaper players of equal value in their arsenal – good for them.

    If the Oilers get Garrison to sign for 850K ( If he shows well in camp) that is a huge win for the organization on a player who was a consistent 30 pt D-man only a couple years ago.

    He is a bit slow of foot yes, so he plays bottom pairing minutes where his physical game and NHL experience can help. He also has a cannon of a shot and would be a welcome option on the second unit PP since the Oilers only really have one decent point shot in Klefbom right now.

    I am rooting for Gary to make the team. If nothing else it provides healthy competition in camp and ensures Bear and/or Bouchard aren’t rushed at all unless they completely outshine their competition.

  39. russ99 says:

    I really think the lineups between this year and last year are either a wash or a minor improvement.

    The real difference is how often McLellan goes to the blender this year, which messed up a ton of players last year. Give lines time to gel.

  40. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Darth Tu,

    Hard pass.

    Bouchard will benefit from the addition of Adam Boqvist to the Knights (among others) and not have to play 30+ minutes a night and be Captain Everything for the team. He was raw defensively at the time of the draft, best thing for him is to go back to junior and work on the defensive end of the game and let Boqvist shoulder more of the offensive load.

    Once he’s better at angling off zone entries, defending the crease and board work, and hopefully a better first step, he’ll be ready for NHL duties. Same could be said of Bear, in fact.

  41. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    GriffCity,

    PP point shots are overrated these days. See 2017/18, Canadiens, Montreal. Once Weber was out and Petry moved up their PP% improved, even as Petry is a better distributor compared to Weber’s howitzer.

    What is more important, in my view, is hitting seams and the open man to get the goalie moving instead of being set and ready to make a save.

    Benning has shown to be both very good at walking the blue line and has a big shot that he’s been able to get through when given the opportunity.

  42. PennersPancakes says:

    PinkSocks:
    Bold prediction:

    Pontus Aberg is this year’s William Karlsson.

    Funny you mention that, I came across this Vancouver based article: Could Pontus Aberg be the Next William Karlsson

    https://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/could-pontus-aberg-be-the-next-william-karlsson-1.23401940

    Even half of Karlssons results would be a success and its a little outlandish but a fun comparison and read.

  43. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I’d be remiss to trade our 1-3rd picks in the 2019 draft, which is reported to be a very strong class. We need to continue to stock the cupboards to ensure a reliable conveyor belt of ELC players ready to perform at the NHL level. Less Ratties and Caggiulas please; more Arvidssons and Guentzels.

    For a Parayko-level player, yes; Theodore… ehhhhh. Probably not.

  44. JimmyV1965 says:

    PinkSocks:
    Changes up front from last year:

    1) Rattie in for Maroon – loss
    2) Reider in for Slepyshev – win
    3) Brodziak in for Letestu – wash

    On D its just Gravel/Jerabek in place of Gryba.That’s likely a wash or minor win.

    Koskinen should be better than Brossoit. Overall, maybe this year’s starting 23 are a tad better than last season.Development of JP and KY are key to any improvement, along with Talbot not letting in any first shot goals.

    The area that is vastly improved is those beyond the first 23 players.Seeing Benson, Marody, and Vesel in place of Laleggia Malone and Ferlin is a nice step in the right direction.

    I agree with all of this. I would suggest Brodziak is a huge upgrade over Letestu, who was awful last year and played way too many minutes in critical roles. The thing that kills the team is 2RD. Chia has had two years to find a reliable player who is good defensively to fill that hole, and he’s come up empty. Maybe it’s more challenging than we all think because the Leafs have the same issue.

  45. JimmyV1965 says:

    JustWatt: Disagree with Brodziak = Letestu, Brodziak successfully played 4C, covered 3C, and was a decent PKer and before he was traded Letestu couldn’t do any of those things.

    Skating reports suggest Gravel and Jerabek are both a significant upgrade on Gryba.

    I would also suggest that just eliminating the Letestu option is a huge win. The coach loved this guy for some reason and gave him too much ice time and responsibility in key roles. Letestu’s performance the year before was a high water mark for him.

  46. HT Joe says:

    Durag:
    One important subtraction people are forgetting, we lost Cap Space from last year’s roster. Though to be fair, he played like shit.

    Well damn… Cap Space was part of the return for Eberle no? That trade just gets worse and worse. 😉

  47. GriffCity says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Having a big shot is overrated? Surely you must be joking. Having a heavy shot option on the point is always a good thing. I am 100% certain the Canadiens PP didnt get better with Petry in spite of Shea Weber…that very notion is laughable. I do agree of course that there must be more to a players game than just a big shot, and that finding seems and reading plays etc is all part of a complete player. But we aren’t talking about PK Subban here, or John Carlson, or for goodness sake, Brent Burns…We are talking about a guy the Oilers could get for league minimum dollars who could fill a 7th d-man type role in the organization who yes, likely still possesses at least one weapon on the point that the Edmonton Oilers sorely lacked last season.

  48. JimmyV1965 says:

    PinkSocks: I think he was bad.Really really bad.

    Kassian, like Lucic, both were bad because neither of them played their style.Head Coach likely to blame trying to reel them in.Kassian should be in the Rattie spot.He’ll score 15-20 there and earn his paycheck.

    I don’t think this is fair at all to the coach. I’ve watched a lot of games again over the summer and Lucic simply checked out after Christmas. Kassian checked out much earlier than that. I see zero evidence that the coach asked them to change playing styles.

  49. jtblack says:

    ArmchairGM:
    I know it’s dreaming, but I like the suggestion in the link I posted earlier: trade Bear + Maksimov + 2019 1st to Vegas for Theodore, then sign both he and Nurse to matching bridge deals. Pretty sure Theodore can play on the right side… I know this creates a cap issue next summer, but we can deal with that in June.

    why would Vegas do this deal?

  50. Bruce McCurdy says:

    ArmchairGM:
    https://www.tsn.ca/just-how-good-is-justin-faulk-1.1123444

    Required reading for Oilers fans.

    That “big-minute, point-producing blueliner” had 12 even strength points last year. Twelve.

    By way of comparison, Kris Russell had 19 ESP & played better defence on a cheaper ticket.

    Screams “RED FLAGS” to me, mind you I have more experience with Faulk than most, having had him on my keeper league team his whole career to this point, waiting for progress and getting regress. Not for much longer, though.

  51. Ryan says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    GriffCity,

    PP point shots are overrated these days.See 2017/18, Canadiens, Montreal.Once Weber was out and Petry moved up their PP% improved, even as Petry is a better distributor compared to Weber’s howitzer.

    What is more important, in my view, is hitting seams and the open man to get the goalie moving instead of being set and ready to make a save.

    Benning has shown to be both very good at walking the blue line and has a big shot that he’s been able to get through when given the opportunity.

    Benning has done okay in that role. As it stands now, he’s a lock for the second power play unit.

    Losing Sekera is a kick in the junk. He was an underrated power play Dman. At 3v3 OT, he was money in the bank.

    There’s currently no cover if Klefbomb gets injured, but that’s okay because we can just run Benning on the first unit and maybe Jerebek on the second unit. It’s not like there’s any impetus to make the playoffs this season.

    One day we’ll have Bear if he makes it and Bouchard. We wait.

  52. digger50 says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think this is fair at all to the coach. I’ve watched a lot of games again over the summer and Lucic simply checked out after Christmas. Kassian checked out much earlier than that. I see zero evidence that the coach asked them to change playing styles.

    I cannot remember the opponent towards the end of the season. Connor gets mugged and goes down. Whistle blows. Nuge is then mugged. Kassian skates by.

    After the game Tmac is asked what he thought about the teams response.

    He replies “perfect, that’s exactly what I want to see”

  53. jp says:

    ArmchairGM:
    https://www.tsn.ca/just-how-good-is-justin-faulk-1.1123444

    Required reading for Oilers fans.

    It is.

    I found one table in there particularly interesting. On ice save% for Dmen from 2012-2018 (as well as team save% over the same time frame). Faulk had the worst on ice save% in the league over the past 6 seasons, 1.2% worse than Carolina overall (.907 vs .919).

    Also on the list were a couple of other guys we’ve been talking about lately, Petry (.915 vs .923) and Karlsson (.915 vs .932 – the biggest delta among those listed).

  54. Durag says:

    Ryan:
    It’s not like there’s any impetus to make the playoffs this season.

    I mean, other than the head coach and GM losing their jobs.

  55. ArmchairGM says:

    Bruce McCurdy: That “big-minute, point-producing blueliner” had 12 even strength points last year. Twelve.

    By way of comparison, Kris Russell had 19 ESP & played better defence on a cheaper ticket.

    Screams “RED FLAGS” to me, mind you I have more experience with Faulk than most, having had him on my keeper league team his whole career to this point, waiting for progress and getting regress. Not for much longer, though.

    Totally agree. For some reason he seems to have a great reputation around the league (among fans at least), when he’s done very little to deserve said reputation. I mean, he scored a bunch of goals, but overall his play hasn’t been good at all.

  56. Side says:

    jtblack: why would Vegas do this deal?

    Sometimes I wonder if fans of other teams proposing trades with Edmonton ever ask the “why would Edmonton do this deal?” question.

  57. digger50 says:

    PennersPancakes: Funny you mention that, I came across this Vancouver based article: Could Pontus Aberg be the Next William Karlsson

    https://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/could-pontus-aberg-be-the-next-william-karlsson-1.23401940

    Even half of Karlssons results would be a success and its a little outlandish but a fun comparison and read.

    That is a fun article.

    It would be awesome if Pontus would blossom on the Oilers. I posted earlier I don’t think it happens though. I think it’s more than “he missed a practice”. There was a big FU in there somewhere.

    If I had to choose a guy that had surprise potential to break out like Karlson it would be Zack Kassian placed up on #1 RW on the Oilers. Yes, it’s a bit of a homer perspective but if Connor and Nuge are playing give and go and they need a fast puck retriever who can own the front of the net, Kassian could fit that role.

    We know Connor can succeed with most wingers but it seems he does best with a passer (Leon) (Nuge) (A Mathews) and a good corner/net man like Milan or Maroon.

    We have yet to see Connor with two high end wingers, or a high end shooter.

    Back to greatest potential for the new out of nowhere Karlson, I’d go with Kassian for 25 goals.

  58. barry.moore23 says:

    Joaquin Andujar was a beast when he played for the Cardinals. Not afraid to bring it high and tight 🙂

  59. Ryan says:

    jp,

    There’s some good names on that list.

    Gio. Letang. Byfuglien. Petry.Slavin.Karlsson.

    Even the HD dman free agent signing of the decade, de Hann!

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/defensemen-still-have-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/

  60. digger50 says:

    Back to coaching

    I don’t “blame” a coach for a player underperforming. However I do hold coach accountable if his roster underperforms. His job is motivation, guidance, cohesion, preparedness. If the whole rosterunderperforms that’s a sign.

    If a player is showing signs of inadequate effort “checking out” its coaches job to correct it. If it’s not corrected then the player sits. Excessive effort gets rewarded. An example might be Drake who can go like a wind up monkey and get as much done. How did they get there?

    McBlender
    Uncertainty of position and roles
    Uncertainty of coverage and systems
    Failure breeding failure
    Punitive repercussions for mistakes
    Loss of confidence
    And worst of all, Woodcroft whispering in your ear

  61. JimmyV1965 says:

    digger50:
    Back to coaching

    I don’t “blame” a coach for a player underperforming. However I do hold coach accountable if his roster underperforms. His job is motivation, guidance, cohesion, preparedness. If the whole rosterunderperforms that’s a sign.

    If a player is showing signs of inadequate effort “checking out” its coaches job to correct it. If it’s not corrected then the player sits. Excessive effort gets rewarded. An example might be Drake who can go like a wind up monkey and get as much done. How did they get there?

    McBlender
    Uncertainty of position and roles
    Uncertainty of coverage and systems
    Failure breeding failure
    Punitive repercussions for mistakes
    Loss of confidence
    And worst of all, Woodcroft whispering in your ear

    I just watched the season opener the other day. Yammer was benched a few shifts in the third period for a giveaway he screwed up on in the second period. Wonder how Gallant would have reacted?

  62. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    GriffCity,

    A big point shot on the PP is more outdated than overrated was my point. Few things are as impressive as Weber ripping the puck literally through the net from the point, where the goalie didn’t know it was behind him until he hears it hit the boards. My point is, it’s a tool that’s being utilized less often these days because point shots are less effective than moving the puck up to the slot.

    Just for fun I checked the splits on naturalstattrick.com and here’s what I found. Parse them as you please.

    pre-dec 16
    gp 33
    gf 18
    ppg/gm .545
    toi 181.12
    cf% 89.95
    ff% 88.7
    hdcf% 90.11
    sh% 9.47
    PDO 1.015

    post-dec 16
    gp 50
    gf 34
    ppg/gm .68
    toi 226:25
    cf% 84.06
    ff% 82.77
    hdcf% 88.12
    sh% 12.11
    PDO 1.057

    *not sure where the extra game comes from, the split I used was dec 16 on both and it counts 83 total games. Perhaps I needed to move the second split date to dec 17, not sure as it’s my first time using that site.

    What I take from those numbers is:
    – fewer shots and shot attempts
    – more PP goals per game
    – higher shooting percentage
    – higher PDO

  63. digger50 says:

    JimmyV1965: I just watched the season opener the other day. Yammer was benched a few shifts in the third period for a giveaway he screwed up on in the second period. Wonder how Gallant would have reacted?

    Gallants success this year sure opened up some eyes to coaching styles.

    Benching a rookie? Who knows what’s appropriate as we are not there, so pretty hard to criticize any individual event. When patterns emerge though I think it’s fair game.

    I like your perspective of reviewing the games.

    So many good stats on this blog and good observations of”what” happened, I’m always curious as to “why” such and such happened. In order to correct it, you have to figure out the why.

  64. Scungilli Slushy says:

    PinkSocks: I think he was bad.Really really bad.

    Kassian, like Lucic, both were bad because neither of them played their style.Head Coach likely to blame trying to reel them in.Kassian should be in the Rattie spot.He’ll score 15-20 there and earn his paycheck.

    Kassian is too erratic to get top 6 time or he’d have it.

    He makes weak decisions with the puck and misses assignments a lot. Rattie does as well but is much more skilled than Kassian. If Kass smartened up he’d be like Wilson for the Caps.

  65. ArmchairGM says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    ArmchairGM,

    I’d be remiss to trade our 1-3rd picks in the 2019 draft, which is reported to be a very strong class.We need to continue to stock the cupboards to ensure a reliable conveyor belt of ELC players ready to perform at the NHL level.Less Ratties and Caggiulas please; more Arvidssons and Guentzels.

    For a Parayko-level player, yes; Theodore… ehhhhh.Probably not.

    It’s interesting, but some people think it’s too much to pay and others not enough. I think it’s a sign that the value is close…

    I’d like to know what Parayko-level is to you, and how it differs from Theodore-level. I was a huge Parayko fan until I analyzed the numbers: aside from a very good rookie campaign, Parayko is a decidedly pedestrian player. Old-school, too, whereas Theodore has the speed and skill to thrive in the ‘new’ NHL.

  66. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ArmchairGM: Totally agree. For some reason he seems to have a great reputation around the league (among fans at least), when he’s done very little to deserve said reputation. I mean, he scored a bunch of goals, but overall his play hasn’t been good at all.

    People notice flashy players – big shots and puck rushes. They don’t notice guys who quietly and boringly get the job done against good players. Those are the gems that make consistent winners and what the Oilers have lacked for years.

    If Chia could find a Stralman for 2RD it would a coup. Maybe Benning can do that. Maybe not. It’s about goal diff more than scoring Imo. Offense is key, but not at any cost.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:

    Throw in a full season playing mostly with Super Nova and he should easily surpass his career high AND push the limits of 75 points.Go RNH.

    I think Connor can take a shot at Joe Thronton’s modern (post 2005) day record of 125 points. Go Connor.

    The Garrison signing makes no sense to me. That is all.

    1) I do think that Nuge will end up playing plenty of center this year – injury cover (and he’s good at it)

    2) Agreed – increased PP production gets him close to start with let alone if/when a few of the youngsters establish themselves as legit top 6 wingers (will happen).

    3) Its just a tryout – no contract. I think he’s a huge long shot to get a contract with the Oil.

  68. Richard S.S. says:

    1) Trades happen out of the blue at any time, for any reason. Nurse is a huge asset, both for the Team and in a trade. Apparently both he and his Agent have huge egos. To get the money they want he needs to be a true #1 D and that’s not happening. Training camp is still too far away and much can happen.
    2) Does anyone know how many people the Oilers can have on the Roster for their game in Europe? I suspect that could be the reason for some of this Offseason. Possibly Peter Chiarelli wants real NHLers as the bodies.
    3) Since Cap compliance starts with the opening of Training Camp, I expect it to be a busy time for the Oilers. Too much to do in so little time. It will be an interesting time.

  69. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack: why would Vegas do this deal?

    Good question. McPhee has been clear from the beginning that he’s building for the long run. To do that he’s going to need to build up his prospect base, and this gives him a potential top-4 RHD (something Vegas needs), a potential top-6 goal scoring forward and a high pick to take the player of his choice. Theodore played the 5th most minutes of Vegas defenders and was 4th / 5th in most counting stats: CF%, FF%, SF%, 5v5 points, 6th in GF%, etc. It won’t kill them to trade him in the short term, and long term they’re likely to be better off with the 3 prospects.

  70. ArmchairGM says:

    Scungilli Slushy: People notice flashy players – big shots and puck rushes. They don’t notice guys who quietly and boringly get the job done against good players. Those are the gems that make consistent winners and what the Oilers have lacked for years.

    If Chia could find a Stralman for 2RD it would a coup. Maybe Benning can do that. Maybe not. It’s about goal diff more than scoring Imo. Offense is key, but not at any cost.

    I had the idea a few weeks ago that Edmonton could engineer a 3-way with Ottawa and Tampa where Tampa would get Karlsson and Edmonton would get Stralman. Can’t remember what the other pieces were to be, but obviously TB gives up the best prospects and picks.

  71. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: People notice flashy players – big shots and puck rushes. They don’t notice guys who quietly and boringly get the job done against good players. Those are the gems that make consistent winners and what the Oilers have lacked for years.

    If Chia could find a Stralman for 2RD it would a coup. Maybe Benning can do that. Maybe not. It’s about goal diff more than scoring Imo. Offense is key, but not at any cost.

    Granted it was four years ago, but the same guy who signed Stralman, Steve Yzerman, traded for the last four years of Jason Garrison’s big ticket. Garrison played three years in Tampa averaging 19 minutes a night, & added 40 playoff games in 2015 & ’16 with similar ice time.

    Lots of evidence suggesting Garrison has since fallen off a cliff, that said a PTO costs nothing and even an eventual contract would cost just a tiny fraction of his previous $4.6 million.

  72. Bruce McCurdy says:

    ArmchairGM: Good question. McPhee has been clear from the beginning that he’s building for the long run. To do that he’s going to need to build up his prospect base, and this gives him a potential top-4 RHD (something Vegas needs), a potential top-6 goal scoring forward and a high pick to take the player of his choice. Theodore played the 5th most minutes of Vegas defenders and was 4th / 5th in most counting stats: CF%, FF%, SF%, 5v5 points, 6th in GF%, etc. It won’t kill them to trade him in the short term, and long term they’re likely to be better off with the 3 prospects.

    Edmonton is also looking to build up its prospect base. Bear & Maksimov are among the club’s top half dozen prospects (top four if you believe those clowns over the the Cult of Hockey!) and a first is a first. I mean, I like Theodore, but that is a lot to give up — especially for a guy with results as mediocre as those you present here.

  73. leadfarmer says:

    I think Garrison even eats popcorn slowly

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    digger50: That is a fun article.

    It would be awesome if Pontus would blossom on the Oilers. I posted earlier I don’t think it happens though. I think it’s more than “he missed a practice”. There was a big FU in there somewhere.

    If I had to choose a guy that had surprise potential to break out like Karlson it would be Zack Kassian placed up on #1 RW on the Oilers. Yes, it’s a bit of a homer perspective but if Connor and Nuge are playing give and go and they need a fast puck retriever who can own the front of the net, Kassian could fit that role.

    We know Connor can succeed with most wingers but it seems he does best with a passer (Leon) (Nuge) (A Mathews) and a good corner/net man like Milan or Maroon.

    We have yet to see Connor with two high end wingers, or a high end shooter.

    Back to greatest potential for the new out of nowhere Karlson, I’d go with Kassian for 25 goals.

    Kassian had very good 5v5 numbers in a small sample with Draisaitl last year:

    63.64 CF%
    64.58 FF%
    64.71 SF%
    3-4 goals (small sample)
    62.86 SCF%
    62.50 HDCF%
    13.64 SH%
    66.67 SV%
    0.803 PDO

    In the 27 minutes represented above, Kassian scored 3 goals on 8 shots. Obviously he was getting open in front. I’d like to see him get an opportunity on the 2-line in pre-season for sure.

    His numbers with McDavid were less impressive.

  75. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Edmonton is also looking to build up its prospect base. Bear & Maksimov are among the club’s top half dozen prospects (top four if you believe those clowns over the the Cult of Hockey!) and a first is a first. I mean, I like Theodore, but that is a lot to give up — especially for a guy with results as mediocre as those you present here.

    Bear and Maksimov are also destined to be value contracts. Need those.

  76. ArmchairGM says:

    PennersPancakes: Funny you mention that, I came across this Vancouver based article: Could Pontus Aberg be the Next William Karlsson

    https://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/could-pontus-aberg-be-the-next-william-karlsson-1.23401940

    Even half of Karlssons results would be a success and its a little outlandish but a fun comparison and read.

    Aberg scored 3.71 points/60 in 80:57 of 5v5 play with Draisaitl last year.

  77. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Was Letestu bad, or was he just playing with bad teammates.Kassian had an awful season.

    Given Kassian’s history of good production there is a strong argument that Kassian was a turd polishing a bit in 16/17

    Letestu GF% WOWY Kassian
    16/17
    With Kassian 55%
    Without Kassian 46.7%
    Kassian without 53.1

    17/18
    With Kassian 35.5%
    Without Kassian 30%
    Kassian without 47.8%

    Kassian had an off year last year for sure, but perhaps that showed up mostly in not being able to drag Letestu up as much as in the past?

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    PinkSocks:
    Changes up front from last year:

    1) Rattie in for Maroon – loss
    2) Reider in for Slepyshev – win
    3) Brodziak in for Letestu – wash

    On D its just Gravel/Jerabek in place of Gryba.That’s likely a wash or minor win.

    Koskinen should be better than Brossoit. Overall, maybe this year’s starting 23 are a tad better than last season.Development of JP and KY are key to any improvement, along with Talbot not letting in any first shot goals.

    The area that is vastly improved is those beyond the first 23 players.Seeing Benson, Marody, and Vesel in place of Laleggia Malone and Ferlin is a nice step in the right direction.

    Each of McDavid, Drai, Puljujarvi, Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse are still developing player and, presumably, improving their games year over year.

    Our core is very young.

    Yada, yada, internal improvements from last off-season’s verbal but its true – all those players could/should be better this year.

  79. Paddy Morans Jockstrap says:

    PinkSocks,

    Coach buried Kass on the 4th line, tied him to the disaster named Letestu, and gave him zero incentives. That is not how you motivate a vet, especially a guy like Kass who needs to play with emotion. You need more than two hands to count the number of serious screw-ups by the head coach last year. Talbot rebounding and TMac getting his head out of his nether regions are the two key things that need to happen for the team to get better.

    Agree with most on Faulk. He doesnʻt help and is getting worse every year. Only way I take that contract is if Looch is going the other way.

  80. ArmchairGM says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Edmonton is also looking to build up its prospect base. Bear & Maksimov are among the club’s top half dozen prospects (top four if you believe those clowns over the the Cult of Hockey!) and a first is a first. I mean, I like Theodore, but that is a lot to give up — especially for a guy with results as mediocre as those you present here.

    Yup, but Theodore is a known quantity and can help immediately, the prospects and pick are not and cannot. Those players may have more impact than Thoedore, but they also may not. The side taking on that risk is going to want greater “potential” in return.

    Edit to add: Bear and Maksimov are two of my top-4 favorite prospects in the Oilers system. But Theodore is a special player, he fits into the core age-wise and solidifies the defense for years to come. Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Theodore and soon Bouchard would give the Oil 5 legit top-4 defenders for the length of the McDavid contract at least.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    PinkSocks:
    Bold prediction:

    Pontus Aberg is this year’s William Karlsson.

    That may be a bit aggressive but I think he deserves a shot in the top 6 – subject to Rattie, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Lucic, there are top 6 winger jobs to win and he’s got the right skill set – but may not have the consistency.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I’m a fan of the 7 d, at least to start the season.I don’t think McLellan goes for it, but I like the idea of defense by committee and then a push in powerplay time for Bouchard, if he sticks past training camp.I’d still rather see him start the season in the AHL, but maybe the Sekera injury has changed the thinking a little.

    Given his age and the fact he was drafted from the CHL, Bouchard cannot play in the AHL this year – not 20 by the cut-off.

    That’s the issue, its almost certainly (almost) the proper league for him but the only options are CHL or NHL.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu:
    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Another year in junior might not be what he wants, but unless he’s a better option than what we have I’d rather he goes back down.Possibly replace Bouchard with Bear in the 7D slot?

    I believe the 7D spot is the worst place for Ethan Bear.

    Unless his game miraculously improved over the off-season (tough without games) the AHL is the perfect place for him to play – to develop and work on the clear deficiencies in his game. I would think he needs at least a few months.

    If he is forced to the NHL roster, he needs to be on the ice, not in the pressbox.

  84. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GriffCity,

    I think the big thing a lot of people out there are missing is the fact that Garrison, when he got to Vegas last season, had one year remaining on a deal that paid him 4.6 million dollars. Thats a lot of cake when you are an expansion team and had options like Shea Theodore, Colin Miller, Braden Mcnabb and heck even Brad Hunt, all coming in at way way less than what Garrison would have been making….It’s not that Garrison wasn’t good enough for the NHL last season, it is that the expansion Golden Knights had cheaper players of equal value in their arsenal – good for them.

    The problem with this argument is the Garrison being in the minors saved VGK $0 in real dollars and under $1MM on the cap.

    They paid him the same in the AHL as they did in the NHL.

    VGK also had no cap issues last year. They were 6MM under the cap last year and they only saved just under $1MM with Garrison in the minors.

    There is no cap or actual dollar reason that VGK sent Garrison to the AHL.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Ryan Ellis went back to OHL for 2 more years after the draft, it doesn’t seem to have hurt him. Bouchard is only eligible for 1 more year, but I think he should go back to the OHL this year. If the Knights finish out of the playoffs he could come up for a cup of coffee.

    This is very likely the case but I can see the scenario where he sticks on the NHL roster for a good couple of months, gets spot started in the lineup and sheltered when he is inserted. Practices with the team, learns about being a pro, etc. Then he goes back to junior (prior to play 10 games or being on the roster for 40 games), captains Team Canada and has a fantastic 2nd half of the year and OHL playoffs.

    I’m not worried about him sitting in the press box a bit (Bear needs to play, he knows what its like to be a pro and knows what he needs to work on) and I’m not worried about him missing a few months of junior hockey, a league he already dominates.

  86. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: Was Letestu bad, or was he just playing with bad teammates.Kassian had an awful season.

    Letestu was bad! His line was where offense went to die! He lost a critical step in skating. This was obvious to all except the coach!

  87. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GriffCity,

    . I am 100% certain the Canadiens PP didnt get better with Petry in spite of Shea Weber…that very notion is laughable.

    Luckily Petry and Weber only played 4:37 together on the PP so we can examine how many goals they scored with Petry on the point and how many with Weber.

    After Weber went down Petry took his spot on PP1

    MTL PP goals/60 with Weber last year 4.22
    MTL PP goals/60 with Petry last year 7.65

    TOI Petry 211 minutes
    TOI Weber 85 minutes

    I don’t think you should use “100% certain” when the results show the opposite of what you are saying.

    Source: http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v4&score=all&rate=y&team=MTL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2018-04-08&tgp=82&strict=incl&p1=8473507&p2=8470642&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

  88. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: Aberg scored 3.71 points/60 in 80:57 of 5v5 play with Draisaitl last year.

    The numbers are skewed. He went on a very short but huge heater with Drai when he returned from suspension. Think he got three points in one game. Then his play deteriorated and they moved him off the line.

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Re: upgrades

    Healthy Klefbom > non healthy Klefbom

    Healthy/Not Grieving as much Larsson > non healthy/grieving Larsson

    Nurse w/ year of Top 4 under belt > question mark Nurse

    3rd year Benning > 2nd year Benning with concussion recovery

    Jerabek > Gryba

    Talbot in front of players on left > Talbot in front of player on right

    Talbot in front of 4v5 rickibox protection > Talbot in front of puck pressure man 4v5

    Note: All of this assume The Good Gord willing and the creek don’t rise

  90. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I was going to say Ekblad, Trouba, that ilk, but Ekblad is perhaps more Parayko than Trouba. So… Trouba? I still wouldn’t want to trade that 2019 first round for Trouba at this point, especially not knowing where it eventually lands.

    Also, I will admit to not having seen much of Theodore since the WJC so I’m not up to date with his current trajectory.

  91. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Granted it was four years ago, but the same guy who signed Stralman, Steve Yzerman, traded for the last four years of Jason Garrison’s big ticket. Garrison played three years in Tampa averaging 19 minutes a night, & added 40 playoff games in 2015 & ’16 with similar ice time.

    Lots of evidence suggesting Garrison has since fallen off a cliff, that said a PTO costs nothing and even an eventual contract would cost just a tiny fraction of his previous $4.6 million.

    I wonder if Garrison has said he will play mentor in the A where they could use an NHL pro and hope for a call up. The coin is still pretty good. I have had trouble finding an 850 000 US job lately

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Durag:
    One important subtraction people are forgetting, we lost Cap Space from last year’s roster. Though to be fair, he played like shit.

    Fuck that guy

  93. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks WG, line stats was the filter I was floundering for and failed.

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Darth Tu:
    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Another year in junior might not be what he wants, but unless he’s a better option than what we have I’d rather he goes back down.Possibly replace Bouchard with Bear in the 7D slot?

    Bear was a great passer in the NHL last year. Made plays that only Klef, Sekera or maybe Benning could make (although I’ve seen Larsson make some passes that made me say “holy fuck, more of that please!”

    That said, his defending was awful.

    He needs another year in the AHL to work on that.

    Jerabek, Gravel are slotted at 6/7 as far as I can see.

  95. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GriffCity,

    If the Oilers get Garrison to sign for 850K ( If he shows well in camp) that is a huge win for the organization on a player who was a consistent 30 pt D-man only a couple years ago.

    When Garrison was traded in the summer of 2014 I was vocal here that EDM should have been in that conversation. I was a fan.

    He’s not that player anymore though.

    Here is how his team mate’s goal share has been effected by him over that last 4 years (RelTGF%)

    14/15 +11.5%
    15/16 -7.3%
    16/17 -7.2%
    17/18 -24,2% (only 126 minutes)

    Garrison was a very good Dman, but he hasn’t been that since 14/15.

  96. pts2pndr says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think this is fair at all to the coach. I’ve watched a lot of games again over the summer and Lucic simply checked out after Christmas. Kassian checked out much earlier than that. I see zero evidence that the coach asked them to change playing styles.

    The PK went in the shitter and then the hitters stopped hitting. Logic would dictate a correlation! If you then blame it on the hitters checking out I would call B.S.!

  97. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks WG, line stats was the filter I was floundering for and failed.

    I’m here to help.

    Naturalstattrick.com then click “players” then “line tool”

    Then you have team and situation (5v5, 5v4 etc) option, hit submit then you get player options.

  98. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: Ryan Ellis went back to OHL for 2 more years after the draft, it doesn’t seem to have hurt him. Bouchard is only eligible for 1 more year, but I think he should go back to the OHL this year. If the Knights finish out of the playoffs he could come up for a cup of coffee.

    Not a great comparison given their very different physical maturity at he same age!

  99. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    GriffCity,

    PP point shots are overrated these days.See 2017/18, Canadiens, Montreal.Once Weber was out and Petry moved up their PP% improved, even as Petry is a better distributor compared to Weber’s howitzer.

    What is more important, in my view, is hitting seams and the open man to get the goalie moving instead of being set and ready to make a save.

    Benning has shown to be both very good at walking the blue line and has a big shot that he’s been able to get through when given the opportunity.

    The vast majority of 5v4 goals are scored in the slot or closer.

    Only something like 7% are on rebounds from point shots.

    When someone like Weber blows it through the goalie it’s beautiful, but its rare.

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    I know it’s dreaming, but I like the suggestion in the link I posted earlier: trade Bear + Maksimov + 2019 1st to Vegas for Theodore, then sign both he and Nurse to matching bridge deals. Pretty sure Theodore can play on the right side… I know this creates a cap issue next summer, but we can deal with that in June.

    Theodore anchored their 2nd pair.

    He’s not going anywhere.

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GriffCity:
    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Having a big shot is overrated? Surely you must be joking. Having a heavy shot option on the point is always a good thing.I am 100% certain the Canadiens PP didnt get better with Petry in spite of Shea Weber…that very notion is laughable. I do agree of course that there must be more to a players game than just a big shot, and that finding seems and reading plays etc is all part of a complete player. But we aren’t talking about PK Subban here, or John Carlson, or for goodness sake, Brent Burns…We are talking abouta guy the Oilers could get for league minimum dollars who could fill a 7th d-man type role in the organization who yes, likely still possesses at least one weapon on the point that the Edmonton Oilers sorely lacked last season.

    The big difference in EDM’s PP from 16/17 (which was awesome) to 17/18 (which was awful) was that ther 17/18 had way more point shots.

    They key to 16/17 was Drai shooting from the slot.

    Opposing teams shut that down so they moved Drai out of thew I bumper and the 5v4 flailed around all year.

    The best 5v4 don’t take a lot of point shots.

  102. leadfarmer says:

    Theodore is going to be a top pairing defensemen. Vegas does not let him go

  103. godot10 says:

    Richard S.S.:
    1) Trades happen out of the blue at any time, for any reason.Nurse is a huge asset, both for the Team and in a trade.Apparently both he and his Agent have huge egos.To get the money they want he needs to be a true #1 D and that’s not happening. Training camp is still too far away and much can happen.

    Chiarelli sign a 30-something 3rd pairing D to a 4 x $4 million dollar contract last summer Why should Nurse settle for less than $4 million on a two year bridge?

  104. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: Good question. McPhee has been clear from the beginning that he’s building for the long run. To do that he’s going to need to build up his prospect base, and this gives him a potential top-4 RHD (something Vegas needs), a potential top-6 goal scoring forward and a high pick to take the player of his choice. Theodore played the 5th most minutes of Vegas defenders and was 4th / 5th in most counting stats: CF%, FF%, SF%, 5v5 points, 6th in GF%, etc. It won’t kill them to trade him in the short term, and long term they’re likely to be better off with the 3 prospects.

    Vegas, after one year, already has a better prospect base than the Oilers, enough in fact to be a serious contender for Karlsson.

  105. hunter1909 says:

    Richard S.S.: Nurse is a huge asset, both for the Team and in a trade. Apparently both he and his Agent have huge egos.

    All the more reason to play hardball.

  106. workaroundaccount says:

    If I had to guess, I’ll say that Montoya comes to camp with his piss hot, but gets sent down anyway because we blew our brains out on Koskinen. Bet Koskinen struggles in relief of Talbot who also struggles.

  107. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: Chiarelli sign a 30-something 3rd pairing D to a 4 x $4 million dollar contract last summer

    I was talking about GM’s playing hardball, not nerfball.

  108. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: Vegas, after one year, already has a better prospect base than the Oilers, enough in fact to be a serious contender for Karlsson.

    Say what you like. Vegas got stuffed in the finals.

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    digger50: I cannot remember the opponent towards the end of the season. Connor gets mugged and goes down. Whistle blows. Nuge is then mugged. Kassian skates by.

    After the game Tmac is asked what he thought about the teams response.

    He replies “perfect, that’s exactly what I want to see”

    Seeing as EDM was being slaughtered 4v5 last year I can understand the coach’s position.

  110. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Chiarelli sign a 30-something 3rd pairing D to a 4 x $4 million dollar contract last summerWhy should Nurse settle for less than $4 million on a two year bridge?

    RFA without arb rights.

    You know this

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reid Wilkins

    Verified account

    @ReidWilkins
    5m5 minutes ago
    More
    Brandon Davidson on contract talks this summer with the Oilers: “Definitely kind of saddened we couldn’t get on the same page,” though adds he still has a good relationship with the club.

    ———————————-

    When the Sekera injury news came out, of course Davidson was a logical candidate but I think I’m quite happy with Jarabek – he’s got the higher potential to make an impact.

  112. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Lets say CmD be all Rocky this year and scores over 50 -what does this team look like?

    – I’m not saying the Oil are going to make a statement this year, I’m just saying

    – I’m getting a sense from my hockey buds that scoring is going to be up lot this year in the league, and the league wants that. More scoring benefit teams that have talent

    – I think the league is shifting, this hasn’t been factored by press or fans. I hope my guys are right.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    GriffCity,

    I think the big thing a lot of people out there are missing is the fact that Garrison, when he got to Vegas last season, had one year remaining on a deal that paid him 4.6 million dollars. Thats a lot of cake when you are an expansion team and had options like Shea Theodore, Colin Miller, Braden Mcnabb and heck even Brad Hunt, all coming in at way way less than what Garrison would have been making….It’s not that Garrison wasn’t good enough for the NHL last season, it is that the expansion Golden Knights had cheaper players of equal value in their arsenal – good for them.

    The problem with this argument is the Garrison being in the minors saved VGK $0 in real dollars and under $1MM on the cap.

    They paid him the same in the AHL as they did in the NHL.

    VGK also had no cap issues last year.They were 6MM under the cap last year and they only saved just under $1MM with Garrison in the minors.

    There is no cap or actual dollar reason that VGK sent Garrison to the AHL.

    I agree with the premise of your post, 100%, but as the corporate lawyer, I need to point out the minor technicality – the amount saved on the cap would have been just over $1M, it would have been $1,025,000 – the league min ($650K) plus $375K.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Re: upgrades

    Healthy Klefbom > non healthy Klefbom

    Healthy/Not Grieving as much Larsson > non healthy/grieving Larsson

    Nurse w/ year of Top 4 under belt > question mark Nurse

    3rd year Benning > 2nd year Benning with concussion recovery

    Jerabek > Gryba

    Talbot in front of players on left > Talbot in front of player on right

    Talbot in front of 4v5 rickibox protection > Talbot in front of puck pressure man 4v5

    Note: All of this assume The Good Gord willing and the creek don’t rise

    We have been stating the same thing in this regard.

    Klefbom being injured from before game 1 was a huge issue last year – it effected his play, then his confidence level, then his decision making. Not to mention his ability to be a threat on the PP.

    I think many forget that Larsson played much of the first half with a bad back which eventually forced him out of the lineup – Lets remember how great he was down the stretch.

    A key to this season for me is someone being able to earn that 2RD spot, on merit and Matty Benning will have the opportunity. He failed to do so last year but, as you said, he’s now further removed from his concussion, as well as a further year developed (3rd year pro).

    Wild card for 2RD is Jarabek (based solely on his MTL numbers playing with Benn).

    Potential biggest additions – Manny Viverios and Trent Yawney.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Chiarelli sign a 30-something 3rd pairing D to a 4 x $4 million dollar contract last summerWhy should Nurse settle for less than $4 million on a two year bridge?

    Haven’t you been very “vocal” about the difference between RFA vs. UFA contract, team leverage if no arb rights, the cost of buying UFA years, etc.?

  116. leadfarmer says:

    I think Benning better come ready to play 20-22 min a night of high quality hockey. Don’t see anyone else being able to bat above 3rd pair

  117. Ryan says:

    workaroundaccount,

    You forgot the part about the Flames claiming Montoya on waivers who then goes on to run .927 for 45 starts leading them them to the playoffs all the while shutting us out in two games.

  118. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: We have been stating the same thing in this regard.

    Klefbom being injured from before game 1 was a huge issue last year – it effected his play, then his confidence level, then his decision making.Not to mention his ability to be a threat on the PP.

    I think many forget that Larsson played much of the first half with a bad back which eventually forced him out of the lineup – Lets remember how great he was down the stretch.

    A key to this season for me is someone being able to earn that 2RD spot, on merit and Matty Benning will have the opportunity.He failed to do so last year but, as you said, he’s now further removed from his concussion, as well as a further year developed (3rd year pro).

    Wild card for 2RD is Jarabek (based solely on his MTL numbers playing with Benn).

    Potential biggest additions – Manny Viverios and Trent Yawney.

    Jerabek Benn was not exactly lighting the world on fire. 43% GF. 47% CF.

  119. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Note: All of this assume The Good Gord willing and the creek don’t rise

    It’s crick, dammit, crick.

    Note: You’re en fuego today.

  120. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: Not a great comparison given their very different physical maturity at he same age!

    Lowetide made the comp, not me.

  121. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Genuinely curious who you see as comparable to Theodore, and who you’d categorize as peers of Parayko.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    No comparison is going to be perfect but, as far as offensive seasons go at that age level, he’s almost an ideal comparison.

    Bouchard may be more physically mature at that age but that doesn’t necessarily mean he is more NHL ready.

    Bouchard likely had a higher TOI/Game but Ellis had a crazy offensive team help boost his stats (including some guy named Hall).

  123. JimmyV1965 says:

    I wonder what the cost is for Petrovic? He appears to be outside the top six in Florida. His cap hit is $2 mill, but for only one more year.

  124. Wilde says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Lets say CmD be all Rocky this year and scores over 50 -what does this team look like?

    – I’m not saying the Oil are going to make a statement this year, I’m just saying

    – I’m getting a sense from my hockey buds that scoring is going to be up lot this year in the league, and the league wants that.More scoring benefit teams that have talent

    – I think the league is shifting, this hasn’t been factored by press or fans.I hope my guys are right.

    I just want an actual increase in penalties called, especially interference in the neutral zone.

    Not just calling more slashing penalties and calling less of everything else, like what happened last year.

  125. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    The best 5v4 don’t take a lot of point shots.

    This is true even for Nashville who plays their 5-on-4 entirely around their point men, with the endangered-species 3F2D unit.

    Even with having two of the best Dman shooters in the game, they still come in way, way lower than the point, usually right at the top of the circles before they let it go.

    If it’s anywhere higher, it’s a pass.

    (and not the tip kind)

  126. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Re: upgrades

    Healthy Klefbom > non healthy Klefbom

    Healthy/Not Grieving as much Larsson > non healthy/grieving Larsson

    Nurse w/ year of Top 4 under belt > question mark Nurse

    3rd year Benning > 2nd year Benning with concussion recovery

    Jerabek > Gryba

    Talbot in front of players on left > Talbot in front of player on right

    Talbot in front of 4v5 rickibox protection > Talbot in front of puck pressure man 4v5

    Note: All of this assume The Good Gord willing and the creek don’t rise

    These are all good points and should make us all feel a bit optimistic. But for some reason my sense of unease grows as the season gets closer. Internal growth should propel this team forward, but that 2RD spot scares the hell out of me.

  127. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965: These are all good points and should make us all feel a bit optimistic. But for some reason my sense of unease grows as the season gets closer. Internal growth should propel this team forward, but that 2RD spot scares the hell out of me.

    1RW, 2RW, 3RW, 4RW, 4C, 2LW, 3LW 4LW scare the hell out of me.

  128. Pescador says:

    Wilde: 1RW, 2RW, 3RW, 4RW, 4C, 2LW, 3LW 4LW scare the hell out of me.

    sorry but I don’t share your fear;
    Khaira. Strome. Puljujarvi.
    Upsh/Abrg. Brodziak. Kassian.
    Cup contending? No
    Adequate? Yes
    Plus I think you could do worse then Reider in your top 6, but that’s just me.

    I’m right there with you on Rattie & Lucic tho

  129. ArmchairGM says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    ArmchairGM,

    Genuinely curious who you see as comparable to Theodore, and who you’d categorize as peers of Parayko.

    I don’t know, Born, I’m not in the habit of categorizing players. I prefer to look at each on their own merit using all available information. It’s not scientific and may not even be accurate (the assessment, not the information), but that’s how I operate.

    To put it into Oilers terms, Theodore has the skills to be better than any current roster player. He isn’t there just yet, but probably will exceed Klefbom this year.

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I don’t know, Born, I’m not in the habit of categorizing players. I prefer to look at each on their own merit using all available information. It’s not scientific and may not even be accurate (the assessment, not the information), but that’s how I operate.

    To put it into Oilers terms, Theodore has the skills to be better than any current roster player. He isn’t there just yet, but probably will exceed Klefbom this year.

    I would say that Nurse has the skills to be just as good if not better than Theodore.

    Lets not forget that a third of Theodore’s points were on the PP this past year. Nurse had 6 more points at evens and played the toughest comp on the Oilers.

    Nurse also now gets the benefit of Trent Yawney (who I’m sure benefited Theodore in the past).

  131. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis: It’s crick, dammit, crick.

    Note: You’re en fuego today.

    I sit corrected sir.

  132. russ99 says:

    JimmyV1965: These are all good points and should make us all feel a bit optimistic. But for some reason my sense of unease grows as the season gets closer. Internal growth should propel this team forward, but that 2RD spot scares the hell out of me.

    Why? If needed, Nurse – Russell was effective for a good two months last season.

  133. russ99 says:

    Wilde: 1RW, 2RW, 3RW, 4RW, 4C, 2LW, 3LW 4LW scare the hell out of me.

    If there are no sideburns moments and if Todd stifles the need to line shift at all times, I think Aberg could claim a much higher spot.

  134. rickithebear says:

    Theodore!

    Vegas took the 9 top 60 he dmen available in exp draft.
    Took Theodore a Yawney ltrained fringe top 60 hd d.
    Moved Methot and TVR
    Retained mcnabb, stoner, Schmidt, Miller, Sbisa, Engelland, Garrison for first season
    Signed Mcnabb, Miller to 4 year extensions
    Have Schmidt and Engelland for 1 more yr.
    They are not going to move Theodore

  135. rickithebear says:

    Skaters roles
    Fwd
    Generate offence while still running NZ trap
    Break cycle or colosseum to edge of perimeter and HD area
    Rover
    Fail to generate offence like a forward
    Fail to let Fwd run NZ trap
    Fail to defend HD area thru abandonment
    Dmen
    Pressure blue if NZ trap run
    Defend HD area from free path corsi
    Possession retrieval
    Quick transition pass to forwarfs, avoiding NZ trap
    Support Fwd as a top of Circle option

  136. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    And what are they doing with the Ricki defensemen. Engelland signed for one more year at basement prices. Sbisa is out. Garrison is out. Building around the non ricki defensemen in Theodore and Miller

  137. Richard S.S. says:

    Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can play with anyone, including Lowetide’s dog. Finding the best option however, might take time. Until then, various players will be auditioned at the position. Most people should be fine with that.

    Leon Draisaitl will be flanked by Milan Lucic, reprising a successful pairing. Finding the best options for Leon might take time. Tobias Rieder is most likely to be Leon’s Winger having played successfully in International competition with him. Until better options are found, most people should be fine with this.

    These two lines drive the bus. They do the job and the Oilers are in the playoffs. All the rest just determines how far they go.

  138. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    digger50,

    – I think the reality of last season was team figured they were good, coaches figured the players were good, and GM was pleased with the moves he made that almost got them to the semis

    – Then the season started, and they won the first game, and they all said: man we be dominate

    – Then they lost a lot

    – And the goalie let in 14 GOALS on the first shot

    – And no one non-McD division scored for it seemed like 2 months

    – And Klef was not healthy

    – And Larsson was not healthy

    – And the team saw that after 20 games they wer in big big trouble. And to compensate the coaches over-coached, the players over-played, and the GM’s plan to load-up at deadline didn’t work

    – This team is maybe a year ahead of the Leafs: who have lost twice in first round

    – Players play, and I think this year rather than do the blow-up, they rightfully put it on the players to show up better, and they got different coaches for coach, because it didn’t work last year

    – the margins are razor thin. In 2016 the Caps were the best team: they won the Cup the next year when they weren’t as good. Chicago went from 109 points to missing the playoffs. The Jets were the 2nd best team in the league after missing the playoffs the year before. Columbus was great then they sucked this year.

    – Sure the coaching will hopefully be better, and the players will be healthier, and they luck will be different.

    – I just don’t think the acceptance of the variance in the game is accepted. Rather narratives and explanations have to be spun on why it happened

    – We don’t know what will happen this season. but if the team is a lot better: the lines are drawn as to how to explain this improvement

    – And of course, another 20 games like the start of last year, and LT’s 40 months to turnover the roster will begin anew…

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