When Sinatra Sings Against Nelson Riddle’s Strings

by Lowetide

In the next few days, we’ll get the Oilers rookie training camp roster. The group will play against the Nait-MacEwan All-Stars on September 11 (last year’s game here, a 2-0 win for the college men). This blog annually lists the rookies for camp and then a large group of people say “no one from this list will play in the NHL this season” and we bat that back and forth. Ahem. Here are the men who made the Young Stars roster over the last several years and then played in the NHL same season:

  • 2017: Kailer Yamamoto, Ethan Bear
  • 2016: Jesse Puljujarvi, Matt Benning, Drake Caggiula
  • 2015: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Anton Slepyshev
  • 2014: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Laurent Brossoit, Bogdan Yakimov, Jordan Oesterle, David Musil
  • 2013: Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin
  • 2011: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

THE ATHLETIC

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

POSSIBLE ROOKIE ROSTER (ADDITIONS LIKELY)

This is a guess, I imagine a couple of Oil Kings will be thrown in and Caleb Jones was also here this summer for orientation camp. It should be a good group, I’ll guess Evan Bouchard and Yamamoto (again) play in the NHL this coming season. It’s a good list but in my opinion 2015 wins against this group.

SEPTEMBER 11, 2015 ROOKIE GAME (OILERS V. CANUCKS)

I would suggest this rookie roster is the gold standard for Oilers kids, the 2015 group included Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse. Ethan Bear and Anton Slepyshev were also in this group.

CERTAIN OILERS

  • It might be more than 19, but I’m fairly certain these men will make the opening night roster barring injury or a trade.
  • There are going to be roster pressures on each wing but anyone who can play center is a lock, including Jujhar Khaira.
  • We haven’t discussed it much, but if the Oilers catch a break on RW things could get interesting. If all of Ty Rattie, Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi shine early, there should be enough on LW for Todd McLellan to at least think about running 97, 29 and 93 up the middle again this year. Ryan Strome could be used on RW as well in a case of that kind.
  • The blue line has several options as possible replacements for the injured Andrej Sekera, I think Jakub Jerabek is the most likely to win the day.

UNCERTAIN OILERS

  • The four most likely group from the ‘uncertain’ pile to move up are (imo) Scottie Upshall, Pontus Aberg, Evan Bouchard and Mikko Koskinen.
  • Kailer Yamamoto can upset that line of thinking with a strong camp, he did it a year ago. It’ll be interesting to see where the coach starts him in preseason. If he gets 97 or 29, that could be a tell.
  • Mikko Koskinen should see plenty of preseason action.

THE DISTANT BELLS

  • The names most likely to move up during preseason: Jason Garrison, William Lagesson.
  • I’m going to write about this for The Athletic in the coming week, but the prospect I think the Oilers are most likely to fast track is Tyler Benson. The LW depth chart has some holes.
  • Stuart Skinner is the most interesting goalie outside the NHL three entering camp.
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Andy Dufresne

Most interesting season ahead.

In priority order for me in terms of my curiosity

1) Goaltending Tandem
2) Jessie Puljuarvi The real deal or not?
3) Head Coach When faced with adversity Chia changed his ways ( didnt trade Klef, JP or the 1st over the summer) he became Patient Pete. Can Tmac do the same. Can he adapt his coaching style to better fit the roster he is being given?
4) Trio of new assistant coaches. How much power/influence will be they be given and what affect will they have on the systems play? Paricularly special teams.
5) Will the McDavid RNH duo be set in stone and if so what will the result look like in terms of points over the course of a full year.
6) In what “new” manner will Conner elevate his game this year? for me last year he improved his shot taking both in terms of quantity and quality. What will it be this year?
7) Oscar Klebom. Given a healthy season, can he become a legit top pairing two-way defensman? Can he put up 40 pts while playing a strong defensive game? Can he carry a pairing that inlcudes the likes of a player like Matt Benning, or will he be heavily reliant on a defense stud like Adam Larsson.
8) Leon Draisaitl. Can he push the river as the second line center?
9) Milan Lucic. Can he regain his form from the 2016-17 season. Can he perform at the $4million level.
10) Ryan Strome. He showed a lot of progress last year. Can he out-perform his $3.1 salary as a 3rd line center?

Andy Dufresne

tileguy:
Bouchards goal, slapshot from a static position. Somebody mentioned the other day that he has to learn to walk the line and change his shooting angle. Something to keep an eye on this September.

There were a couple of good articles at the Athletic out around draft week that did comprehesive assessments of the top 5 or 6 draft eligble dmen. One head to head comparison was Noah Dobson vs Evan Bouchard. It stated that one of Bouchards clear advantages over Dobson was his ability to hold the line, walk the line, and change the angle of his shots from the line, particularly on the powerplay.

It was noted that this seemed to run contrary to most analysts intuition given that Dobson was clearly the better and more agile skater.

Agreed it will be interesting to watch/assess.

Bling

Lowetide,

I agree with this.

I don’t buy the narrative that JP/KY have to be world beaters right now to contend for the playoffs. JP is already a solid NHLer who needs to be given more ice time, and KY will be a solid NHLer by mid season.

If one or both of those two pop, then you’re looking at a very, very good team IMO, provided the D stays healthy.

fireantz

leadfarmer,

SAN Jose!

Woodguy v2.0

Wilde:
Woodguy v2.0,

Something I love is when a unit of players gets absolutely fed to the wolves, puts up awful numbers and gets scored on a ton, and then they get cut loose at the end of the season and the fanbase goes “great, addition by subtraction!!”.

And it’s like… the same thing’s going to happen to the next guys you do that to. If it ends up being power v. power as a solution, they’ll be talking about Klingberg underperforming and that “the best players need to be the best players”.

Rinse, repeat

frjohnk

Wilde: the team’s ceiling isn’t that high without another impact forward.

I agree with you here. I think we need at least 1 more impact player, and another impact/very good complimentary player to be in the conversation of the elite teams.

This not only provides cover for injury to McDavid and Draisaitl but also provides the scoring needed to win if they get shut down.

Wilde

Lowetide,

I just have this persistent psychosis where I worry the team’s ceiling isn’t that high without another impact forward. I create scenarios where the Oilers win a lottery into a top 3 pick(from, say, eight picks upfield) daily.

It sounds insane, as an Oilers fan, to be like, gimme more! But it just feels like they’re down a guy unless Puljujarvi absolutely slingshots into Marian Hossa.

Wilde

Woodguy v2.0,

Something I love is when a unit of players gets absolutely fed to the wolves, puts up awful numbers and gets scored on a ton, and then they get cut loose at the end of the season and the fanbase goes “great, addition by subtraction!!”.

And it’s like… the same thing’s going to happen to the next guys you do that to. If it ends up being power v. power as a solution, they’ll be talking about Klingberg underperforming and that “the best players need to be the best players”.

Woodguy v2.0

leadfarmer:
https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/nhl-team-by-team-over-under-point-projections-for-2018-19
Under on Boston?Because of 3 years before last year?
The hockey news
I don’t think I would even wrap Woodguys fish in that magazine

My guesses disagreed with theirs in 10 spots, 4 in EC and 6 in WC

TOR
BUF
PIT
CBJ

WPG
MIN
DAL
CGY
EDM
ARI

So at the end of the year I expect I’m right on 5 and they’re right on 5.

The line I don’t understand is DAL at 96.5

Hamhuis and Pateryn were fed the toughest minutes and toughest zone starts by a mile and neither is back with the team.

I guess they expect Methot to slide into Hamhuis’ spot, but who slides into Pateryn? (RD)

Maybe that’s why they’ve been chasing Karlsson so hard, but they kinda already have a Karlsson in Klingberg.

You can’t shield every pairing from the toughs.

Wilde

From NHL.com’s top 50 prospects:

“The Oilers believe Bouchard (6-2, 193) can develop into a high-end offensive defenseman in the NHL, but they are not expected to rush him. He will get a long look at training camp to see how his offensive skills translate in the NHL but likely will return for a fourth season with London.

Projected NHL arrival: 2020-21 season”

Wilde

It’s funny that this is our psychology though, simply hoping for outcomes that will placate the madmen over any other.

oilersfan

Woodguy, I love your prediction that the flames miss the playoffs

With their moves this offseason can you explain it?

Is it because Gio is 35 and they traded their top Dman for a third pairing one?

Or because their 36 year old goalie is injured a lot?

Wilde

Lowetide: I’ll be thrilled. It would mean the team kept their picks, kept Puljujarvi and won the playoffs. It would mean the Oilers finally stopped digging.

You may be right, but I think it would depend on the successor to the current GM and what they perceive their timeline to be.

I think if the team wins again, that might mean the leash is looser on the general manager (as it always should be; but anyways) and he may feel emboldened to make a move again.

Peter Chiarelli appears to make moves based off of playoff outcomes. If a player disappears during the playoffs that are won, are they gone? Is that player Ryan Nugent-Hopkins this time?

Say the Oilers end up with a soft first-round matchup. It’s the Sharks, but Thornton is injured again, and so is Vlasic! Yet 97-93 are snakebitten/get robbed despite not having to deal with the opposing team’s best defender, and Nuge is moved off of the line in favour of another LW.

Then, McDavid starts scoring but the Oilers goaltending collapses en route to getting swept (while most of the pundits have predicted a 7-game contest due to the Sharks injuries) and there’s another pre-McDavid veteran with a poor playoff performance in a small sample sitting through the summer. And we’re all just wondering what happens in late June.

Foege Foegele Torpe

David: For me the two biggest things are:

1.) No consistency of line mates. Looking at other teams they have players playing 500, 600, 700, 800 mins together in a season. The top oilers were in the 200’s and 300’s. This is a big deal.

2.) The Oilers had psychological issues last year with thinking they were big shots who would coast to the stanley and then quickly flipped to beaten and fragile self doubters. To me the mental state of mind of their team is a huge role the coach plays. You can look at specific players as well such as Lucic or Talbot who were mentally shaken.

I have also been unhappy with his use of Puljujarvi

For other people it’s his lack of line matching

“The team in orange” comments

Draisaitl with McDavid

Caggiula (I have to admit to liking Caggiula)

Special teams struggles (and keeping Lucic on the power play for all of time)

I like Caggiula as well, on the 4th line.

Coach Todd seemed to rarely if ever take the blame for the poor results. Last time I checked it was the HC’s responsibility to have his team ready to go at puck drop. Yet the team was always on the back foot, either by being sorely outplayed or by giving up the first goal game in & game out.
Talbot should shoulder some of that.

Fucking McBlender needs to be used sparingly not constantly

Foege Foegele Torpe

hunter1909: I’ll buy that for a dollar!

Question to the mob:

What exactly is wrong with McLellan? He seems like a youthful version of OTC, which isn’t a bad thing.

What specifically does he do that drives everyone crazy?

Not winning the Stanley Cup for the Oilers has been a real bugaboo of mine for 3 years now

Ryan

OriginalPouzar: It depends.

When (if) Sekera comes off LTIR, the LTIR cushion that we have disappears immediately and we can no longer go over go over the cap by any amount.

With that said, the cap gets calculated on a daily basis so any amount the team is under the cap (well, the cap plus the LTIR cushion that we get) will be usable later in the year.

For example, lets say we are at $79M on day 1 of the season which is $500K under the cap.We then place Sekera on LTIR which allows us to go over the cap by $5M (Sekera’s $5.5M minus the $500K below the cap we were).

If we add a $3.5M player to the roster (somehow), we will be $2M under the cap plus LTIR cushion so we would accumulate a pro rated porition of that $2M each day that can be used when Sekera comes off LTIR.

I believe that you are incorrect here.

I’ve always understood that cap space cannot be accrued when using the LTIR cushion.

David

hunter1909: I’ll buy that for a dollar!

Question to the mob:

What exactly is wrong with McLellan? He seems like a youthful version of OTC, which isn’t a bad thing.

What specifically does he do that drives everyone crazy?

For me the two biggest things are:

1.) No consistency of line mates. Looking at other teams they have players playing 500, 600, 700, 800 mins together in a season. The top oilers were in the 200’s and 300’s. This is a big deal.

2.) The Oilers had psychological issues last year with thinking they were big shots who would coast to the stanley and then quickly flipped to beaten and fragile self doubters. To me the mental state of mind of their team is a huge role the coach plays. You can look at specific players as well such as Lucic or Talbot who were mentally shaken.

I have also been unhappy with his use of Puljujarvi

For other people it’s his lack of line matching

“The team in orange” comments

Draisaitl with McDavid

Caggiula (I have to admit to liking Caggiula)

Special teams struggles (and keeping Lucic on the power play for all of time)

OriginalPouzar

Pescador: Sekera coming back off of injury This season would be downright scary.
He came back too damn early after rehabbing last year,
The results were disastrous,
The roster can’t take on extra salary in case he returns? Oy

It depends.

When (if) Sekera comes off LTIR, the LTIR cushion that we have disappears immediately and we can no longer go over go over the cap by any amount.

With that said, the cap gets calculated on a daily basis so any amount the team is under the cap (well, the cap plus the LTIR cushion that we get) will be usable later in the year.

For example, lets say we are at $79M on day 1 of the season which is $500K under the cap. We then place Sekera on LTIR which allows us to go over the cap by $5M (Sekera’s $5.5M minus the $500K below the cap we were).

If we add a $3.5M player to the roster (somehow), we will be $2M under the cap plus LTIR cushion so we would accumulate a pro rated porition of that $2M each day that can be used when Sekera comes off LTIR.

hunter1909

Pescador: Chiarello will fire Mclellan before he gets the hook.
Especially if the season goes in the toilet by Xmas

I’ll buy that for a dollar!

Question to the mob:

What exactly is wrong with McLellan? He seems like a youthful version of OTC, which isn’t a bad thing.

What specifically does he do that drives everyone crazy?

Foege Foegele Torpe

Gerta Rauss: I tend to agree and they’ve got their contracts/dollars set up for a conservative approach wrt the LTIR money

-sign Nurse to something that starts with a 3-that puts them snug to the cap
-Sekera to LTIR on day 1- LTIR cushion will be $5M and change
-sign the PTO’s
-off they go

It really depends on the severity of Sekera’s injury-if he’s coming back this season the above is the prudent play

Sekera coming back off of injury This season would be downright scary.
He came back too damn early after rehabbing last year,
The results were disastrous,
The roster can’t take on extra salary in case he returns? Oy

Foege Foegele Torpe

pts2pndr: Good call!

This is a league mandate for pre season?

Foege Foegele Torpe

hunter1909:
I can tell my annual myopia re this team is starting…

– Nurse breaks out

– Bouchard makes the team ala the 18 year old Scott Stevens

– McDavid goes insane to start the season(this IS going to happen 100% everyone run to the bank with this one)

– the new assistant coaches know wtf they’re doing

– the politics re McLellan/Chiarelli/the usual suspects are put to rest with the aura of success

– Paul Coffey finds his calling as a post/NHLer as a mentor to the defence and shines(excuse this, but Coffey was and remains my all time fave Oiler)

– the goalies stop enough pucks to not hurt the fragile egos on the team

– RNH finally blossoms alongside McGenius

– Draisaitl finally settles down and plays centre, actually coming close to making his ridiculous salary

– Santa Claus’s factory turns out a record amount of toys

OR:

The season starts off like last year and Keith Gretzky takes over the GM position.

Chiarello will fire Mclellan before he gets the hook.
Especially if the season goes in the toilet by Xmas

hunter1909

I can tell my annual myopia re this team is starting…

– Nurse breaks out

– Bouchard makes the team ala the 18 year old Scott Stevens

– McDavid goes insane to start the season(this IS going to happen 100% everyone run to the bank with this one)

– the new assistant coaches know wtf they’re doing

– the politics re McLellan/Chiarelli/the usual suspects are put to rest with the aura of success

– Paul Coffey finds his calling as a post/NHLer as a mentor to the defence and shines(excuse this, but Coffey was and remains my all time fave Oiler)

– the goalies stop enough pucks to not hurt the fragile egos on the team

– RNH finally blossoms alongside McGenius

– Draisaitl finally settles down and plays centre, actually coming close to making his ridiculous salary

– Santa Claus’s factory turns out a record amount of toys

OR:

The season starts off like last year and Keith Gretzky takes over the GM position.

pts2pndr

Woodguy v2.0: They need a certain percentage of veteran NHLer to play in the pre-season.Each game has a minimum of vets needed.

There is a reasonable chance Nurse isn’t signed when they start playing.

Garrison on a PTO would keep them from overplaying their starting vets if that happens.

Good call!

Gerta Rauss

leadfarmer: I think you guys will have to wait a year.They have enough youth that they will want to keep some depth for when wobble hits.

I tend to agree and they’ve got their contracts/dollars set up for a conservative approach wrt the LTIR money

-sign Nurse to something that starts with a 3-that puts them snug to the cap
-Sekera to LTIR on day 1- LTIR cushion will be $5M and change
-sign the PTO’s
-off they go

It really depends on the severity of Sekera’s injury-if he’s coming back this season the above is the prudent play

Gret99zky

Woodguy v2.0: Its nit-picking, not nip.

Blame your phone.

This would make an excellent Christmas card.

hunter1909

leadfarmer:
https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/nhl-team-by-team-over-under-point-projections-for-2018-19
Under on Boston?Because of 3 years before last year?
The hockey news
I don’t think I would even wrap Woodguys fish in that magazine

Fake news

Bwahahahahaha

leadfarmer

https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/nhl-team-by-team-over-under-point-projections-for-2018-19
Under on Boston? Because of 3 years before last year?
The hockey news
I don’t think I would even wrap Woodguys fish in that magazine

Woodguy v2.0

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
Woodguy v2.0,

Wasn’t Gudas heavily sheltered?Or is there underlying data that suggests he can handle higher QoC and not get slaughtered?

I like his truculence but we need more of a sure thing at 2RD than 3RD.

This past year was poor for Gudas.

Showed much better in previous years.

Coach doesn’t like him and I think he’s a great 3RD and a good 2RD, but last year is a concern.

Is under contract this year and next at 3.35 so it probably doesn’t happen.

hunter1909

Lowetide: Bouchard is already exceptional at finding ways to get his shot through. Speed of the pro game a different matter but he can think on his feet based on reports.

That goal he scored looks very good. Pro-like. Bung him and Ethan Bear on the points and Bingo! Thats a good NHL powerplay. With Connor McDavid on the other end? I almost pity the other team which is more than enough reason to keep the Lucics and Kassians around – because the other teams are going to want to kill McDavid.

leadfarmer

Gerta Rauss: I endorse this message

I think you guys will have to wait a year. They have enough youth that they will want to keep some depth for when wobble hits.

Bruce McCurdy

OriginalPouzar: Manson plus Yawney added to the organization with the depth of D prospects this team has started to accumulate and with Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse and Benning still being 25 and under – great, just great, adds.

Manny V was a defenceman also, with a mind for the offensive side of the equation. It’s a nice mix.

ashley

Woodguy v2.0:
Here is my prediction/guess at the final NHL 18/19 standings:

This may change before game 1 as teams change players or injuries happen during camp.

Note:I will only accept shit talk if you post your own prediction/guess of the final standings as well. If you do, then hammer away!

We will not accept “I haven’t looked at everyone yet so I don’t have every team, but team X is way too low/high”

Keep that weak sauce away from my brisket!

Eastern Conference
TBY116
WSH104
PIT102
BOS102
FLA101
CAR97

Wildcard
TOR100
CBJ96

Out of playoffs
PHI95
NJD86
BUF82
NYI78
NYR78
DET66
MTL65
OTT62

Western Conference
NSH114
MIN108
ANA106
SJS100
WPG98
ARI96

Wildcard
STL97
EDM95

Out of playoffs
LAK94
DAL92
CGY88
COL86
CHI84
VGK84
VAN68

*feels disturbance in the force as if millions cried out about ARI and CAR at once, but were silenced as they went to work on their standings*

This all looks spot on to me EXCEPT the Flames. I think they make the post season, possibly with ease.

I know, the weakest saucing of all sauces. It’s painful for me too.

Scungilli Slushy

Woodguy v2.0:
Here is my prediction/guess at the final NHL 18/19 standings:

This may change before game 1 as teams change players or injuries happen during camp.

Note:I will only accept shit talk if you post your own prediction/guess of the final standings as well. If you do, then hammer away!

We will not accept “I haven’t looked at everyone yet so I don’t have every team, but team X is way too low/high”

Keep that weak sauce away from my brisket!

Eastern Conference
TBY116
WSH104
PIT102
BOS102
FLA101
CAR97

Wildcard
TOR100
CBJ96

Out of playoffs
PHI95
NJD86
BUF82
NYI78
NYR78
DET66
MTL65
OTT62

Western Conference
NSH114
MIN108
ANA106
SJS100
WPG98
ARI96

Wildcard
STL97
EDM95

Out of playoffs
LAK94
DAL92
CGY88
COL86
CHI84
VGK84
VAN68

*feels disturbance in the force as if millions cried out about ARI and CAR at once, but were silenced as they went to work on their standings*

Thanks WG for this work.

The thing that occurs to me looking at each roster is that most are holey. There are a few deep D corps and a few deep forward corps, There are a couple that arguably have both.

Coaching and culture play such a huge part in this, and injuries. Which is why we can see strong teams based largely on previous success, but picking final four is a crap shoot.

I like the Oilers a lot based on a step forward in coaching and culture. Top 10 in the league to me. The weakness is at D and getting competent goalering of course. If role players don’t shit the bed and play like they do on good teams I see playoffs no problem.

The Jets are the deepest team on our half. We’ll see if they have the gumption to get it done.

I see the Dogs and Canes maybe having strong seasons but I see meh in both. Good, but bland as in the Blues, Wild, and Preds of the past. Not enough spark.

Gerta Rauss

Woodguy v2.0: If Myers wins a spot in camp Pete should trade for Gudas

I endorse this message

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Woodguy v2.0,

Wasn’t Gudas heavily sheltered? Or is there underlying data that suggests he can handle higher QoC and not get slaughtered?

I like his truculence but we need more of a sure thing at 2RD than 3RD.

Woodguy v2.0

dustrock:
Woodguy I have dark horsed Carolina the last 2 years and looked pretty stupid.

I want to dark horse them again this year. Hopefully getting Hamilton is the difference maker and surely goaltending will improve.

Not just Hamilton, but Hamilton and De Haan.

That’s a pair that could play 1st pair. That’s a big deal imo.

They lost some scoring with Skinner and Lindholm, but you only have to score more than the other guy.

Darling bouncing back is a huge deal.

Woodguy v2.0

leadfarmer:
Woodguy v2.0,

Yeah it’s hard to know how quickly these young guys are going to take over but I think it happens sooner than later.I think Myers will beat out one of these guys sometime this year.They got rid of their crappy Ricki defenseman in Manning.They’re in a process of phasing some of these guys out and subbing in Sanheim and Myers.How quickly these guys move up the depth chart is key

If Myers wins a spot in camp Pete should trade for Gudas

dustrock

Woodguy I have dark horsed Carolina the last 2 years and looked pretty stupid.

I want to dark horse them again this year. Hopefully getting Hamilton is the difference maker and surely goaltending will improve.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

tileguy,

That was me, referencing recent observations by Ryan Rishaug.

And agreed, watching his development will be fascinating. Can he develop into a strong two-way defenseman, or is he merely a rover?

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: If they sign him to a contract, I would think its to play in the NHL and not re-assign to Bakersfield.

They also have Jones, Lagesson, Lowe on the left side…..

He may just be a Nurse placeholder. They’ve signed a lot of LD. Nobody including in Bake has much NHL experience. It’ll be interesting how it shakes out. PC is stockpiling D. The right side up and down is still thin

tileguy

Bouchards goal, slapshot from a static position. Somebody mentioned the other day that he has to learn to walk the line and change his shooting angle. Something to keep an eye on this September.

rickithebear

Pescador: not necessarily

I posted this stuff years ago.

A Simplified above median test.
For dmens shot translation value on PP.

Rebound is a 2nd phase measure which requires results from possible superior outcome options to identify the best sytem for success and options to play off structure.
Phase play a simple game anslysis aproach required for proper sports analytics.
Rebounds
FO from
Opp zone clearance from
Opp SH HD shots from.

All part of multi varisble success map.

D. Sutter “we are turning players into robots.”
That is why the man walked away.
Thier taking the coaching away.
With repeating high probability systems and actions.

Once again I have said for years.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Not to take an overly negative approach, but having combed over the PA Raiders rosters from 2003 to last season (during Dave Manson’s tenure), the only noteworthy defenseman to come out of the club are Josh Morrissey and Brendan Guhle.

At this point, Trent Yawney has enough of a track record to be called a d-man whisperer, but I’m not yet convinced Manson has earned the mantle.

Either way, I’m still excited to have him working with the boys in the Bake.

N64

Pescador: #16 had some attitude issues to work through, back to junior haven’t heard from him since.
#33 showed up to camp out of shape & got sent home.
Slow feet & shy offensively, was never going to make the jump. Wasted pick imo

~ not how i recall it. #16 refused to sign and we traded him to the Isles for Josh Ho-Sang who got sent to Bakersfield in December. ~

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0,

Yeah it’s hard to know how quickly these young guys are going to take over but I think it happens sooner than later. I think Myers will beat out one of these guys sometime this year. They got rid of their crappy Ricki defenseman in Manning. They’re in a process of phasing some of these guys out and subbing in Sanheim and Myers. How quickly these guys move up the depth chart is key

rickithebear

It drove me nuts when people would say that shoting % is not sustainable.
But as the 512 groups of team, comp, ZS show, thier are clearly diffrent averages for each group to regress to.
Diffrent situations with diffrent ranges so diffrentbregressions for each.

Regression is thier. But to establish clear independent performance baseline
Then you start to identify the outlying mechsnisms that achieve the +ve for each situation.
As I started in first years of this blog,

Peo0e argued not enough sample size
Not enough sample size.
That is a university concept.

The situation averages stood out even before the necassary data size.
All the data provides is a slide in the matrix to rstznlish the know means for a situation a player is in and compare thier performance.

What Wilde discovered was obvious Years ago with simple checks.
Perimeter shots over interior have no value unless they are Forward rate effective.
In the last few years the slap pass has become a tool.
So the two must pe differentiated.
Which have stated in the past.

Back to same fwd vs rover/dmen GF pocesdion efficiency.
I stated years ago thier are not many viably effective Dmen shooting % next to the 6-7 PP top shooting% fwds on each team and PPGF/60 forwards. They should see as much PPTOI possible.

9 year ago all you had to do was look at rough base 1:30 to 2:00 PPTOI were stall in count occurred.
Forwards count varied from 208 to 222
Dmen count varied from 75 to 95 but largely was between 80 to 87.

The forward PPSH% data on either side of the median from 07-8 to 17-18 varied from 14.6-15.6% by yr.
With the overall average from 15.1 to 15.2%

The dmen PPSH% data on either side of median was from 9-10 to 16-17 we saw 7.1 to 7.7%
With average of 7.3 to 7.4%
7-8&8-9 averaged 8.5-8.6% around the median.
17-18 was 8.1% to 8.2%

7-8 to 17-18 had a range of 5-9 dmen above the forward median except for 15-16/were thier were 11.
The average for that time was 7.3 Dmen having above median SH%

I allways look for repeat players in the groups of 5-9
Like in the past.
MAB
MARKOV
Vishnovsky
Chara
Weber
Martin
Giordano
Enstrom
Gilbert

And recent
Chara
Weber
Doughty
Giordano
OEL
Enstrom
Russell

Thier PP shots are justified.
Funny EDM did not use Russell’s shot the last 2 seasons considering he was 2/3 the 3 seasons before.
This is for those that really want offence who kept saying we need that point shot.

Bouchard who looks like a calm Def dman will get dome whispering.
I had to go back on as many Point shots I could see.
A lot of slap passes.
With a well directed shot
He fits why dream Dman balance if he can take on a 1st/2nd comp down the road.