When Sinatra Sings Against Nelson Riddle’s Strings

In the next few days, we’ll get the Oilers rookie training camp roster. The group will play against the Nait-MacEwan All-Stars on September 11 (last year’s game here, a 2-0 win for the college men). This blog annually lists the rookies for camp and then a large group of people say “no one from this list will play in the NHL this season” and we bat that back and forth. Ahem. Here are the men who made the Young Stars roster over the last several years and then played in the NHL same season:

  • 2017: Kailer Yamamoto, Ethan Bear
  • 2016: Jesse Puljujarvi, Matt Benning, Drake Caggiula
  • 2015: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Anton Slepyshev
  • 2014: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Laurent Brossoit, Bogdan Yakimov, Jordan Oesterle, David Musil
  • 2013: Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin
  • 2011: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

THE ATHLETIC

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

POSSIBLE ROOKIE ROSTER (ADDITIONS LIKELY)

This is a guess, I imagine a couple of Oil Kings will be thrown in and Caleb Jones was also here this summer for orientation camp. It should be a good group, I’ll guess Evan Bouchard and Yamamoto (again) play in the NHL this coming season. It’s a good list but in my opinion 2015 wins against this group.

SEPTEMBER 11, 2015 ROOKIE GAME (OILERS V. CANUCKS)

I would suggest this rookie roster is the gold standard for Oilers kids, the 2015 group included Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse. Ethan Bear and Anton Slepyshev were also in this group.

CERTAIN OILERS

  • It might be more than 19, but I’m fairly certain these men will make the opening night roster barring injury or a trade.
  • There are going to be roster pressures on each wing but anyone who can play center is a lock, including Jujhar Khaira.
  • We haven’t discussed it much, but if the Oilers catch a break on RW things could get interesting. If all of Ty Rattie, Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi shine early, there should be enough on LW for Todd McLellan to at least think about running 97, 29 and 93 up the middle again this year. Ryan Strome could be used on RW as well in a case of that kind.
  • The blue line has several options as possible replacements for the injured Andrej Sekera, I think Jakub Jerabek is the most likely to win the day.

UNCERTAIN OILERS

  • The four most likely group from the ‘uncertain’ pile to move up are (imo) Scottie Upshall, Pontus Aberg, Evan Bouchard and Mikko Koskinen.
  • Kailer Yamamoto can upset that line of thinking with a strong camp, he did it a year ago. It’ll be interesting to see where the coach starts him in preseason. If he gets 97 or 29, that could be a tell.
  • Mikko Koskinen should see plenty of preseason action.

THE DISTANT BELLS

  • The names most likely to move up during preseason: Jason Garrison, William Lagesson.
  • I’m going to write about this for The Athletic in the coming week, but the prospect I think the Oilers are most likely to fast track is Tyler Benson. The LW depth chart has some holes.
  • Stuart Skinner is the most interesting goalie outside the NHL three entering camp.

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139 Responses to "When Sinatra Sings Against Nelson Riddle’s Strings"

  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    When Smokey sings, I hear violins.

    When Smokey sings, I forget everything.

  2. dustrock says:

    God this Mack trade to the Bears is just killing me.

    If the Vegas debacle wasn’t enough to end it as a Raiders fan, trading one of the best defensive players in the league in his prime for no reason should do it.

    I thought Hall for Larsson was bad.

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    He’s a 6-foot-3 defenseman with right-handed shot. Some of his defensive reads were not good, so that’s a concern. But I think the Oilers may have a player here. Final pick in the 3rd round in 2016.

    — Jokke Nevalainen (@JokkeNevalainen) August 31, 2018

    Why the tweet about Berglund but nothing else about him in the post?

    Curious.

  4. Bag of Pucks says:

    dustrock:
    God this Mack trade to the Bears is just killing me.

    If the Vegas debacle wasn’t enough to end it as a Raiders fan, trading one of the best defensive players in the league in his prime for no reason should do it.

    I thought Hall for Larsson was bad.

    Davis basically forced this decision by giving $100 million to Gruden. Mack wants a contract that’s bigger than Aaron Donald’s $135M deal.

    Mack is a potential Hall of Famer. Even if the Raiders hit on both of those firsts, highly unlikely they’ll land a player of that calibre.

    The lone positive is, with Trubisky at QB, next year’s first could be a lottery pick.

    Trading a likely HoFer in his prime for lottery tickets and cap space. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.

  5. Bag of Pucks says:

    Have to say those Uncertain Oilers and Distant Bells lists are looking better with each passing year. Pete is bringing depth to an organization that sorely lacked it. Lagesson is my pick for this year’s darkhorse in camp.

    Dave Manson, the D Whisperer?

  6. oilersjo says:

    Dave Manson has to whisper,but he carries a big stick. He has molded some very good defensemen in his last 6 years. He will do great for the young Oiler D.

  7. Westchester Oil says:

    Minor quibbles with the list. With Bear, Bouchard and Gravel in the mix, plus a possible trade, I’d put Jerabek in the Uncertain list.

    Also, I’d throw Garrison in the Uncertain pile as well. Don’t see why Pete would sign him to a PTO if he was a distant bell.

  8. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    These are interesting results.

    Here is the R-squared of the correlation between Team CF% at the 30 game point and Team GF% in games 31-82 of that season.

    07/08 0.243
    08/09 0.115
    09/10 0.069
    10/11 0.237
    11/12 0.471
    13/14 0.300
    14/15 0.227
    15/16 0.042
    16/17 0.164
    17/18 0.006

    Georges inspired me to look at this when he posted the year end correlation between Team CF% and Team GF% and showed that it weakened over the last 3 years.

    It looks like the ability of team level CF% to predict future GF% dropped as well and collapsed last year.

    This type of analysis is best done at “n” games every year and then looking at the curve.

    I don’t have the database to do that.

    G ran “n” games with his database for 17/18 and there never was a curve last year. Just a flat line near zero all year.

    This is pretty fascinating.

    No idea if this holds at the player level as well.

    I would doubt it, but never say never.

  9. Rondo says:

    Westchester Oil,

    Canucks got rid of Garrison because of lack of foot speed years ago.

  10. Bar_Qu says:

    Westchester Oil,

    Likely he’s a distant bell because he hasn’t got the speed to challenge for a team which has talked alot this summer about getting faster. JMO

  11. Bar_Qu says:

    Rondo:
    Westchester Oil,

    Canucks got rid ofGarrison because of lack of foot speed years ago.

    Yeah, what this guy said. Better than me. 🙂

  12. Oilman99 says:

    Gravel will be pushing Jurabek, he is being under rated if healthy. Garrison is a waste of time,slower boots than Gryba who has already been dumped. Does anyone know if Mantha is going to be able to play?

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Here is my prediction/guess at the final NHL 18/19 standings:

    This may change before game 1 as teams change players or injuries happen during camp.

    Note: I will only accept shit talk if you post your own prediction/guess of the final standings as well. If you do, then hammer away!

    We will not accept “I haven’t looked at everyone yet so I don’t have every team, but team X is way too low/high”

    Keep that weak sauce away from my brisket!

    Eastern Conference
    TBY 116
    WSH 104
    PIT 102
    BOS 102
    FLA 101
    CAR 97

    Wildcard
    TOR 100
    CBJ 96

    Out of playoffs
    PHI 95
    NJD 86
    BUF 82
    NYI 78
    NYR 78
    DET 66
    MTL 65
    OTT 62

    Western Conference
    NSH 114
    MIN 108
    ANA 106
    SJS 100
    WPG 98
    ARI 96

    Wildcard
    STL 97
    EDM 95

    Out of playoffs
    LAK 94
    DAL 92
    CGY 88
    COL 86
    CHI 84
    VGK 84
    VAN 68

    *feels disturbance in the force as if millions cried out about ARI and CAR at once, but were silenced as they went to work on their standings*

  14. Ben says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Good list. Only picks I’d bet against would be (indeed) CAR, then MIN and ANA.

  15. Bag of Pucks says:

    oilersjo:
    Dave Manson has to whisper,but he carries a big stick.He has molded some very good defensemen in his last 6 years.He will do great for the young Oiler D.

    True dat.

  16. Pescador says:

    I don’t recall ever posting anything negative about Peter Chiarelli or the Oilers front office.
    I have also never told a lie.
    PC has done a good job this summer. I’m quite pleased with the new coaches that have benn hired to help develop the young dmen in the system & on the big club.
    If Woodcock puts the onus on playing rookie pros & developing NHLers that would signify a major shift in the organizations philosophy.
    Could we finally be witnessing a new focus on drafting & developing?
    It’s taken forever but the prospect pool has grown in length and breadth, another feather for the GM imo.
    The results will start to show in a season or two,
    Sound investments.
    Dividends please, 🤚

  17. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador,

    If Woodcock puts the onus on playing rookie pros & developing NHLers that would signify a major shift in the organizations philosophy.

    Woodcroft

    Blame your phone

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ben:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Good list. Only picks I’d bet against would be (indeed) CAR, then MIN and ANA.

    I think I got SJS and ANA backwards now that I look at it again.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    Persson – goal in his first game, 2 assists in his second game.

    Berglund – goal and assist in his first game and best player on the ice (from accounts).

    May be a fun year to keep track of the prospects in the SHL.

  20. Munny says:

    oilersjo: Dave Manson has to whisper,

    Brilliant response. Kudos!

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    I anticipate Cooper Marody is going to show very well at prospects camp being a real prospect and a bit older. Lagesson as well (although a mostly defensive d-man will show in a different way).

    Of course, the guys like Yamamoto and Bouchard will also very likely dominate.

  22. Munny says:

    Early days and the game was merely a “Friendly”, but nice arrow on Berglund from Swedish Poster yesterday. Anyone know when his present contract with Skelly ends?

  23. jtblack says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Have to say those Uncertain Oilers and Distant Bells lists are looking better with each passing year. Pete is bringing depth to an organization that sorely lacked it. Lagesson is my pick for this year’s darkhorse in camp.

    Dave Manson, the D Whisperer?

    +1. Overall depth looks much better.

    It takes time to rebuild a gutted Franchise. Step 1 was to get the NHL squad back to repectablilty – CHECK

    Then build out the prospect cupboard with Legitimate prospects. BAKERSFIELD with quality youth – CHECK

    Add legitimate (or is that Material) prospects in Junior and All over Europe and Pete has done an excellent job in 3 full years.

  24. jtblack says:

    ” would suggest this rookie roster is the gold standard for Oilers kids, the 2015 group included Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse. Ethan Bear and Anton Slepyshev were also in this group.”

    Should have included #16 & #33. – Would have been Triple Gold Standard

  25. Westchester Oil says:

    Bar_Qu:
    Westchester Oil,

    Likely he’s a distant bell because he hasn’t got the speed to challenge for a team which has talked alot this summer about getting faster. JMO

    I wouldn’t want to see Garrison on the team either. Just not sure why Chia would bother to sign him to a PTO if he was a longshot.

  26. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here is my prediction/guess at the final NHL 18/19 standings:

    This may change before game 1 as teams change players or injuries happen during camp.

    Note:I will only accept shit talk if you post your own prediction/guess of the final standings as well. If you do, then hammer away!

    We will not accept “I haven’t looked at everyone yet so I don’t have every team, but team X is way too low/high”

    Keep that weak sauce away from my brisket!

    Eastern Conference
    TBY116
    WSH104
    PIT102
    BOS102
    FLA101
    CAR97

    Wildcard
    TOR100
    CBJ96

    Out of playoffs
    PHI95
    NJD86
    BUF82
    NYI78
    NYR78
    DET66
    MTL65
    OTT62

    Western Conference
    NSH114
    MIN108
    ANA106
    SJS100
    WPG98
    ARI96

    Wildcard
    STL97
    EDM95

    Out of playoffs
    LAK94
    DAL92
    CGY88
    COL86
    CHI84
    VGK84
    VAN68

    *feels disturbance in the force as if millions cried out about ARI and CAR at once, but were silenced as they went to work on their standings*

    Edmontin in by 1 Point!!! Hope you are correct!

  27. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Also would mean Ottawa “gitfed” Colorado Jack Hughes. Which would go down as one of the worst trades ever. Hughes is tracking in the Eichel / Matthews category – as in FRANCHISE

  28. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Westchester Oil: I wouldn’t want to see Garrison on the team either. Just not sure why Chia would bother to sign him to a PTO if he was a longshot.

    AHL mentor and an experienced call up as the other options don’t have many NHL games under their belts. Better slow boots that know the NHL game than maybes again, for small stretches?

  29. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: AHL mentor and an experienced call up as the other options don’t have many NHL games under their belts. Better slow boots that know the NHL game than maybes again, for small stretches?

    Although is he’s taking a prospect’s LD ice time it’s probably a bad thing. The Condor’s lack RD this season.

  30. godot10 says:

    dustrock:
    God this Mack trade to the Bears is just killing me.

    If the Vegas debacle wasn’t enough to end it as a Raiders fan, trading one of the best defensive players in the league in his prime for no reason should do it.

    I thought Hall for Larsson was bad.

    In the NFL, guaranteed money has to be put in escrow. The Raiders and Davis don’t have $80 million in cold hard cash to put aside.

    The rule is somewhat archaic, but it demonstrates that Mark Davis is cash poor.

    The point of the escrow rule is to prevent the Mario Lemieux situation, where the player doesn’t get paid. If there is a bankruptcy.

  31. godot10 says:

    jtblack: +1.Overall depth looks much better.

    It takes time to rebuild a gutted Franchise.Step 1 was to get the NHL squad back to repectablilty – CHECK

    Then build out the prospect cupboard with Legitimate prospects.BAKERSFIELD with quality youth – CHECK

    Add legitimate (or is that Material) prospects in Junior and All over Europe and Pete has done an excellent job in 3 full years.

    Two finishes in the bottom 3Rd of the league in three seasons is Not respectable.

  32. godot10 says:

    Westchester Oil: I wouldn’t want to see Garrison on the team either. Just not sure why Chia would bother to sign him to a PTO if he was a longshot.

    Nurse is unsigned.

  33. leadfarmer says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    No defensive player is worth that much. The Vikings are doing it right for a change. Pay big money on a qb. Defense by committee.
    Bears are doing this cause the only chance they have of getting out of NFC north is injuring Rodgers

  34. Pescador says:

    jtblack:
    ” would suggest this rookie roster is the gold standard for Oilers kids, the 2015 group included Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse. Ethan Bear and Anton Slepyshev were also in this group.”

    Should have included #16 & #33. – Would have been Triple Gold Standard

    #16 had some attitude issues to work through, back to junior haven’t heard from him since.
    #33 showed up to camp out of shape & got sent home.
    Slow feet & shy offensively, was never going to make the jump. Wasted pick imo

  35. Pescador says:

    godot10: Nurse is unsigned.

    Fear mongering

  36. Lowetide says:

    WG’s standings are very interesting. Lots to think about.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: Edmontin inby 1 Point!!!Hope you are correct!

    Me too!

  38. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Also would mean Ottawa “gitfed” Colorado Jack Hughes.Which would go down as one of the worst trades ever. Hughes is tracking in the Eichel / Matthews category – as in FRANCHISE

    Gotta still win the lottery

  39. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    ****************
    Eastern Conference
    TBY 115
    TOR 109
    BOS 106
    PIT 101
    WSH 99
    PHI 99

    Wildcard
    FLA 97
    CBJ 94

    Out of playoffs
    CAR 92
    NJD 90
    BUF 84
    DET 77
    NYR 73
    NYI 71
    MTL 65
    OTT 64

    Western Conference
    WPG 118
    NSH 110
    ST.L 102
    SJS 106
    ANA 100
    L.A. 99

    Wildcard
    MIN 99
    COL 95

    Out of playoffs
    EDM 92
    VGS 92
    DAL 90
    AZ 85
    CGY 80
    CHI 72
    VAN 66

    Hopefully this came out right.

    I have FLA replacing NJ in the East. Do think WSH will have Stanley Cup hangover (maybe a real one 🙂 & start slow. Buf improves the most.

    West VGS drops out. St.L improves. WPG wins prez Trophy.

    Edm improves but not enough to grab a playoff spot

  40. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide:
    WG’s standings are very interesting. Lots to think about.

    First question that come to my mind:

    “Are you on glue? ARI and CAR 3rd in their divisions?”

  41. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack,

    Hopefully this came out right.

    I have FLA replacing NJ in the East. Do think WSH will have Stanley Cup hangover (maybe a real one 🙂 & start slow. Buf improves the most.

    West VGS drops out. St.L improves. WPG wins prez Trophy.

    Edm improves but not enough to grab a playoff spot

    WSH’s top 4 this year will be better than last year imo.

    WPG’s 2LD is a concern like EDM’s 2RD is a concern, I don’t think they beat NSH in Central. I like NSH’s back up goalie way more too and Hellebyck has one good year.

    I also have DET way lower.

    Check this out:

    17/18 DET 5v5 GF%
    Zetterburg on 53.7%
    Zetterburg off 44.3%

    Z probably doesn’t play this year

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    Do we think that Rattie is a “certain Oiler” if Yamamoto blows the doors off at camp?

    Lets be realistic, is there much doubt Kailer will produce in the early pre-season games against middling talent?

    Unfortunately, I think that Yamamoto making the team would take Aberg’s spot and Rattie’s job is indeed safe – I don’t like it but I believe that’s the situation.

  43. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador: Fear mongering

    They need a certain percentage of veteran NHLer to play in the pre-season. Each game has a minimum of vets needed.

    There is a reasonable chance Nurse isn’t signed when they start playing.

    Garrison on a PTO would keep them from overplaying their starting vets if that happens.

  44. godot10 says:

    Pescador: Fear mongering

    The question was “why bring Garrison in on a PTO?”

    The answer was “Nurse is unsigned.”

  45. David says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here is my prediction/guess at the final NHL 18/19 standings:

    This may change before game 1 as teams change players or injuries happen during camp.

    Note:I will only accept shit talk if you post your own prediction/guess of the final standings as well. If you do, then hammer away!

    We will not accept “I haven’t looked at everyone yet so I don’t have every team, but team X is way too low/high”

    Keep that weak sauce away from my brisket!

    Eastern Conference
    TBY116
    WSH104
    PIT102
    BOS102
    FLA101
    CAR97

    Wildcard
    TOR100
    CBJ96

    Out of playoffs
    PHI95
    NJD86
    BUF82
    NYI78
    NYR78
    DET66
    MTL65
    OTT62

    Western Conference
    NSH114
    MIN108
    ANA106
    SJS100
    WPG98
    ARI96

    Wildcard
    STL97
    EDM95

    Out of playoffs
    LAK94
    DAL92
    CGY88
    COL86
    CHI84
    VGK84
    VAN68

    *feels disturbance in the force as if millions cried out about ARI and CAR at once, but were silenced as they went to work on their standings*

    I think I can get on board with your eastern conference. I might tinker with it a little such as:

    Tampa
    Pittsburgh
    Washington
    Toronto
    Columbus
    Florida

    Boston
    Carolina

    The west in my mind is impossible to predict based on the Central being loaded and nobody in the Pacific really impressing me. Does San Jose win by default? I honestly feel like Edmonton has as good a shot at the division as anyone. I wouldn’t be surprised with any combination of the top five of:

    Anaheim
    San Jose
    Los Angeles
    Calgary
    Edmonton

    In the Central I like Winnipeg and St. Louis more than Nashville and am intrigued by Dallas

  46. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Not bad. Drop Florida one spot. Replace with Philly. Drop Carolina out of playoffs. Raise Tor several spots.
    Blue Jackets are a complete wildcard depending on when they trade Panarin. In wild card spot if they don’t, out of playoffs if they trade him soon
    Wpg in second
    Wild out of playoffs.
    Avs in Oil out

  47. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’m gonna disturb the shit out of the force if the Oilers make it in by one point and I have to hear the ‘mission accomplished’ presser from Bobby or Peter

  48. leadfarmer says:

    Tampa
    Pittsburgh
    Toronto
    Boston
    Washington – I think they are still drinking
    Philly
    Florida
    CBJ if Panarin stays

    Out in order
    NJD
    Carolina
    Buffalo
    NYI
    NYR
    Detroit
    MTL
    Ottawa

    Western
    Nashville
    Winnipeg
    St.louis
    Anaheim
    VGK
    Colorado and they may get Hughes!!
    Wild
    SJ

    Out.
    Calgary
    LA
    Dallas
    Edmonton
    Chicago
    Van

    Changed couple things. Western conference after the first 4 is really tough

  49. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Pescador,

    If Woodcock puts the onus on playing rookie pros & developing NHLers that would signify a major shift in the organizations philosophy.

    Woodcroft

    Blame your phone

    H.C. Jay Woodcroft plays the rookies in prominent rolls with PP time and in the top 6, Veteran AHL dmen get healthy scratched in favour of youth.
    Pat Woodcock is self-serving, has his new players riding the pine in an attempt to get more AHL wins and advance his career.
    we’ll see

  50. leadfarmer says:

    My favorite part of the offseason is Calgary seeing the issues we have with Lucic and going yeah we want that. Neal cmon down. They will regret that in. Well actually they probably regret it already

  51. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here is my prediction/guess at the final NHL 18/19 standings:

    This may change before game 1 as teams change players or injuries happen during camp.

    Note:I will only accept shit talk if you post your own prediction/guess of the final standings as well. If you do, then hammer away!

    We will not accept “I haven’t looked at everyone yet so I don’t have every team, but team X is way too low/high”

    Keep that weak sauce away from my brisket!

    Eastern Conference
    TBY116
    WSH104
    PIT102
    BOS102
    FLA101
    CAR97

    Wildcard
    TOR100
    CBJ96

    Out of playoffs
    PHI95
    NJD86
    BUF82
    NYI78
    NYR78
    DET66
    MTL65
    OTT62

    Western Conference
    NSH114
    MIN108
    ANA106
    SJS100
    WPG98
    ARI96

    Wildcard
    STL97
    EDM95

    Out of playoffs
    LAK94
    DAL92
    CGY88
    COL86
    CHI84
    VGK84
    VAN68

    *feels disturbance in the force as if millions cried out about ARI and CAR at once, but were silenced as they went to work on their standings*

    Not sure if I should make a list prior to commenting here, but I will anyway because I’m not really critiquing the list.

    There are some really fascinating stories this year. The Bruins were beasts last year, but I can see them falling back to earth this year. They had a lot of huge rookie performances last year and their core is one year older. I’m actually happy we play them twice early in the season. Bergeron is rehabbing from groin surgery and it looks like he’ll miss their preseason games. Hoping he’s not up to snuff early in the season.

    The Avs are equally fascinating. I can see a massive drop in points this year. Jost is their 2C right now. Ouch!! They could start the season with Barrie, Makar and Girard all playing big roles. That’s a lot of small guys in the top six dmen. This will really test the movement towards small dmen.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Have to say those Uncertain Oilers and Distant Bells lists are looking better with each passing year. Pete is bringing depth to an organization that sorely lacked it. Lagesson is my pick for this year’s darkhorse in camp.

    Dave Manson, the D Whisperer?

    Bah – I took Willie off the board months ago – ha just kidding.

    I don’t think he’ll break camp with the team but I could see him with some NHL games later in the year. I think he’s closer to the NHL than Jones – a big guy that defends but can also skate and pass the puck – yes please.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    oilersjo:
    Dave Manson has to whisper,but he carries a big stick.He has molded some very good defensemen in his last 6 years.He will do great for the young Oiler D.

    Manson plus Yawney added to the organization with the depth of D prospects this team has started to accumulate and with Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse and Benning still being 25 and under – great, just great, adds.

  54. John Chambers says:

    These season preview on the Athletic by Dan L are outstanding in their detail. He seems to have built a very good team forecasting model:
    https://theathletic.com/499363/2018/09/01/luszczyszyn-2018-19-nhl-season-previews/

    Darcy is all-in on the Canes’ and Coyotes’ hype ;).

    I have Philly finishing with over 100 points based on the strength of their D, adding JVR, and their other emerging forwards.

    LA appears to me to be the strongest team in the Pacific, although arguments can be made for Anh, SAN Jose, Vegas, Edmonton, and even Calgary. It’s looking like a 5- or 6- team battle royale for 4 or even 3 spots.

    Even the tank battle between Vancouver, Detroit, and Montreal, competing against Ottawa’s accidental incompetence will be fun to see play out.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99:
    Gravel will be pushing Jurabek, he is being under rated if healthy. Garrison is a waste of time,slower boots than Gryba who has already been dumped. Does anyone know if Mantha is going to be able to play?

    Agreed on Gravel – I think he was signed to be on the roster.

    From accounts, he was establishing himself as an every day guy in LA prior to getting sick.

    My one high hockey IQ acquaintance that lives in Southern California states that he will look like a solid #5 for stretches but then a #9 – I guess consistency is what he needs to find.

  56. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here is my prediction/guess at the final NHL 18/19 standings:

    Eastern Conference
    TBY116
    WSH104
    PIT102
    BOS102
    FLA101
    CAR97

    Wildcard
    TOR100
    CBJ96

    Out of playoffs
    PHI95
    NJD86
    BUF82
    NYI78
    NYR78
    DET66
    MTL65
    OTT62

    Western Conference
    NSH114
    MIN108
    ANA106
    SJS100
    WPG98
    ARI96

    Wildcard
    STL97
    EDM95

    Out of playoffs
    LAK94
    DAL92
    CGY88
    COL86
    CHI84
    VGK84
    VAN68

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    ****************
    Eastern Conference
    TBY 115
    TOR 109
    BOS106
    PIT101
    WSH99
    PHI99

    Wildcard
    FLA 97
    CBJ 94

    Out of playoffs
    CAR92
    NJD90
    BUF 84
    DET 77
    NYR73
    NYI71
    MTL65
    OTT64

    Western Conference
    WPG 118
    NSH110
    ST.L102
    SJS 106
    ANA100
    L.A.99

    Wildcard
    MIN 99
    COL95

    Out of playoffs
    EDM92
    VGS92
    DAL 90
    AZ85
    CGY80
    CHI 72
    VAN66

    Both of your predictions are wrong because…

    (Puts on nip picking hat)

    It’s impossible for two teams from the same division to be 1st AND 2nd seed in the conference. ANA (or SJ) and PIT would be 2nd seeded by default

    (Takes off nip picking hat, looks in mirror, and shakes head in disappointment)

  57. Pescador says:

    godot10: The question was “why bring Garrison in on a PTO?”

    The answer was “Nurse is unsigned.”

    that was my interpretation of your answer,

    For me, the reason Garrison was offered a PTO is; inadequate pro scouting

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador:
    I don’t recall ever posting anything negative about Peter Chiarelli or the Oilers front office.
    I have also never told a lie.
    PC has done a good job this summer.I’m quite pleased with the new coaches that have benn hired to help develop the young dmen in the system & on the big club.
    If Woodcock puts the onus on playing rookie pros & developing NHLers that would signify a major shift in the organizations philosophy.
    Could we finally be witnessing a new focus on drafting & developing?
    It’s taken forever but the prospect pool has grown in length and breadth, another feather for the GM imo.
    The results will start to show in a season or two,
    Sound investments.
    Dividends please,

    I agree.

    I won’t get in to the preface that the limited cap space was self inflicted – it is what it is and the moves this spring/summer seem like very astute moves to me (Koskinen overpay aside).

    I do think the biggest acquisition(s) of the summer are the assistant coaches plus Dave Manson. They could prove to pay huge dividends.

    As an aside, I do wonder of Woodcock (vs. Woodcroft) was intentionally.

  59. JimmyV1965 says:

    David: I think I can get on board with your eastern conference. I might tinker with it a little such as:

    Tampa
    Pittsburgh
    Washington
    Toronto
    Columbus
    Florida

    Boston
    Carolina

    The west in my mind is impossible to predict based on the Central being loaded and nobody in the Pacific really impressing me. Does San Jose win by default? I honestly feel like Edmonton has as good a shot at the division as anyone. I wouldn’t be surprised with any combination of the top five of:

    Anaheim
    San Jose
    Los Angeles
    Calgary
    Edmonton

    In the Central I like Winnipeg and St. Louis more than Nashville and am intrigued by Dallas

    Completely agree with this. The Canucks are the only lock IMO. Every other team in the division could finish first or second last in the division. Crossing my fingers that Calgary flames out. They seem so convinced down there of their amazing offseason and that they will dominate the division this year. Argh.

  60. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’m gonna disturb the shit out of the force if the Oilers make it in by one point and I have to hear the ‘mission accomplished’ presser from Bobby or Peter

    Haha!

  61. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They need a certain percentage of veteran NHLer to play in the pre-season.Each game has a minimum of vets needed.

    There is a reasonable chance Nurse isn’t signed when they start playing.

    Garrison on a PTO would keep them from overplaying their starting vets if that happens.

    League mandate that I”M unaware of?

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: AHL mentor and an experienced call up as the other options don’t have many NHL games under their belts. Better slow boots that know the NHL game than maybes again, for small stretches?

    If they sign him to a contract, I would think its to play in the NHL and not re-assign to Bakersfield.

    They also have Jones, Lagesson, Lowe on the left side…..

  63. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Do we think that Rattie is a “certain Oiler” if Yamamoto blows the doors off at camp?

    Lets be realistic, is there much doubt Kailer will produce in the early pre-season games against middling talent?

    Unfortunately, I think that Yamamoto making the team would take Aberg’s spot and Rattie’s job is indeed safe – I don’t like it but I believe that’s the situation.

    I think Rattie’s place on the roster is very much in jeopardy if he can’t hold that 1R job through camp. He’ll get first crack at that spot but I don’t think they’ll give him any extra slack if someone beats him out. He’s proven very little thus far. And he doesn’t appear to be a useful option if he can’t stick on a scoring line.

    I agree he’s likely not a certain Oiler, imo at least.

  64. leadfarmer says:

    John Chambers,

    Yeah I’m surprised how many people have Philly out. That roster is growing up to be scary. And they’re still breaking in Konecny Sanheim and Patrick
    Only part that worries me is goalies until Hart is ready

  65. Bag of Pucks says:

    Westchester Oil: I wouldn’t want to see Garrison on the team either. Just not sure why Chia would bother to sign him to a PTO if he was a longshot.

    They’re desperate to fix the PP and want to plug in as many options as possible. No risk with a PTO so no downside.

  66. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    My favorite part of the offseason is Calgary seeing the issues we have with Lucic and going yeah we want that.Neal cmon down.They will regret that in.Well actually they probably regret it already

    Fair, but at least Neal’s contract isn’t buyout proof. No trade protection either.

  67. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965,

    The Avs are equally fascinating. I can see a massive drop in points this year. Jost is their 2C right now. Ouch!! They could start the season with Barrie, Makar and Girard all playing big roles. That’s a lot of small guys in the top six dmen. This will really test the movement towards small dmen.

    Avs goaltending is a real strength.

    Erik Johnson is due for an injury plagued season though.

    Check out his gp over his last 5 years:

    2009-10 79
    2010-11 77
    2011-12 73
    2012-13 31 – lockout 48gp season
    2013-14 80
    2014-15 47
    2015-16 73
    2016-17 46
    2017-18 62

    That doesn’t guarantee an injury season, but I’m always wary of COL because of it.

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Crazy Pedestrian:
    Both of your predictions are wrong because…

    (Puts on nip picking hat)

    It’s impossible for two teams from the same division to be 1st AND 2nd seed in the conference. ANA (or SJ) and PIT would be 2nd seeded by default

    (Takes off nip picking hat, looks in mirror, and shakes head in disappointment)

    They’re not seedings.

    They are standings points lists with the wildcards moved to highlight them

    Also,

    Its nit-picking, not nip.

    Blame your phone.

  69. jtblack says:

    Crazy Pedestrian,

    I just tried to pick the Top 8 for East and West, keeping in mind the wild card format.

    Division Wise I had;

    T.B TOR BOS
    PIT PHI WSH

    WPG NSH ST.L
    S.J. ANA L.A.

    Plus wildcards. Also doing on phone with 1 coffee and blurry eyes.

    I do think there will be some Teribble hockey teams this yr.

    OTT MTL NYI DET VAN CHI could all be sub 72 points. Ott might mirror like COL 2 yrs ago, a flat out Implosion

  70. Bag of Pucks says:

    leadfarmer:
    Bag of Pucks,

    No defensive player is worth that much.The Vikings are doing it right for a change.Pay big money on a qb.Defense by committee.
    Bears are doing this cause the only chance they have of getting out of NFC north is injuring Rodgers

    I would say an elite few generational players are. LT. Reggie White. Ray Lewis. JJ Watt when he’s healthy. I don’t think Mack is in that category but he’s not far off. I’d like the trade a lot better if there was a starter coming back. Picks are not guarantees of starters.

  71. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    jtblack,

    Hopefully this came out right.


    I have FLA replacing NJ in the East. Do think WSH will have Stanley Cup hangover (maybe a real one & start slow. Buf improves the most.

    West VGS drops out. St.L improves. WPG wins prez Trophy.

    Edm improves but not enough to grab a playoff spot

    WSH’s top 4 this year will be better than last year imo.

    WPG’s 2LD is a concern like EDM’s 2RD is a concern, I don’t think they beat NSH in Central.I like NSH’s back up goalie way more too and Hellebyck has one good year.

    I also have DET way lower.

    Check this out:

    17/18 DET 5v5 GF%
    Zetterburg on 53.7%
    Zetterburg off 44.3%

    Z probably doesn’t play this year

    Yah interesting. Hindsigjt prob drop them below 70 pts. they are weak in ALL areas (F,D & G)

    I think you will see half dozens disaster seasons as outlined a few posts ago MTL roster is TERRIBLE. OTT & NYI poor. Det weak sauce. VAN? CHI?

    I like what St.Louis did this offseason. just dont like Allen.

  72. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    John Chambers,

    Yeah I’m surprised how many people have Philly out.That roster is growing up to be scary.And they’re still breaking in Konecny Sanheim and Patrick
    Only part that worries me is goalies until Hart is ready

    Its their goalie depth that had me keep them out this year.

    I think they’re going to be really good, but Elliot and Neuvirth are a risky bet imo.

    Elliott
    16/17 .910 (49gp)
    17/18 .909 (43gp)

    Neuvirth
    16/17 .891 (28gp)
    17/18 .915 (21gp)

    I also have a hard time figuring out their Dcorps.

    I know one thing for sure, Provorov is the goods, but their best Dmen aren’t quite there yet.

    I like Ghostbear and Sandheim too, but man they are all so young.

  73. jonrmcleod says:

    I’M BACK, BABY!

    *it suddenly dawns on him that no one knew he was ever gone*

  74. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here is my prediction/guess at the final NHL 18/19 standings:

    This may change before game 1 as teams change players or injuries happen during camp.

    Note:I will only accept shit talk if you post your own prediction/guess of the final standings as well. If you do, then hammer away!

    We will not accept “I haven’t looked at everyone yet so I don’t have every team, but team X is way too low/high”

    Keep that weak sauce away from my brisket!

    Eastern Conference
    TBY116
    WSH104
    PIT102
    BOS102
    FLA101
    CAR97

    Wildcard
    TOR100
    CBJ96

    Out of playoffs
    PHI95
    NJD86
    BUF82
    NYI78
    NYR78
    DET66
    MTL65
    OTT62

    Western Conference
    NSH114
    MIN108
    ANA106
    SJS100
    WPG98
    ARI96

    Wildcard
    STL97
    EDM95

    Out of playoffs
    LAK94
    DAL92
    CGY88
    COL86
    CHI84
    VGK84
    VAN68

    *feels disturbance in the force as if millions cried out about ARI and CAR at once, but were silenced as they went to work on their standings*

    You’re predicting 95 points for the Oilers, no kidding eh?

    After our bet last year, I feel like you’re trolling me now with that prediction. 🙂

  75. Lowetide says:

    jonrmcleod:
    I’M BACK, BABY!

    *it suddenly dawns on him that no one knew he was ever gone*

    Not true!

  76. Lowetide says:

    Wilde:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’m gonna disturb the shit out of the force if the Oilers make it in by one point and I have to hear the ‘mission accomplished’ presser from Bobby or Peter

    I’ll be thrilled. It would mean the team kept their picks, kept Puljujarvi and won the playoffs. It would mean the Oilers finally stopped digging.

  77. OilFire says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They’re not seedings.

    They are standings points lists with the wildcards moved to highlight them

    Also,

    Its nit-picking, not nip.

    Blame your phone.

    No, no, no. He’s actually correct since talking about selecting nipples.

  78. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: Yah interesting.Hindsigjt prob drop them below 70 pts.they are weak in ALL areas (F,D & G)

    I think you will see half dozens disaster seasons as outlined a few posts agoMTL roster is TERRIBLE. OTT & NYI poor. Det weak sauce.VAN?CHI?

    I like what St.Louis did this offseason.just dont like Allen.

    I like STL too, but they need to stop playing Boumeester at 1LD

    MTL can be almost not terrible due to Price
    I don’t see any way OTT is non-terrible given their goalie and D
    DET might be non terrible if Howard is hot, but I doubt it
    If CHI loses Crawford again they have potential to be in the 70’s in terms of points

    NYI and NYR aren’t quite in the terrible area due to Dmen and goalies.

    Same with VAN, although I like their goalies less

    VAN has the best Dcorps among the bad teams imo.

  79. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OilFire: No, no, no. He’s actually correct since talking about selecting nipples.

    I sit corrected

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: I’ll be thrilled. It would mean the team kept their picks, kept Puljujarvi and won the playoffs. It would mean the Oilers finally stopped digging.

    Good point

  81. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: You’re predicting 95 points for the Oilers, no kidding eh?

    After our bet last year, I feel like you’re trolling me now with that prediction.

    Not trolling.

    I think I’m a bit high on them, but its that time of year.

  82. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jonrmcleod:
    I’M BACK, BABY!

    *it suddenly dawns on him that no one knew he was ever gone*

    Hi Jon.

    Good to see you again.

  83. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I wonder how long they wait on Hart before they give him a chance. I would be surprised if he doesn’t see some time with the club this year
    I have trouble docking Phillys young defense too much cause for the east they are actually pretty good already. It’s hard to get excited about too many of the defensive corps in the east.
    Toronto, Meh. Florida meh. NJ same. Pittsburgh.
    So they actually have one of the better d corpse out of the playoff teams. Only ones I’d say they are behind is Tampa, Boston, Carolina,

  84. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Not trolling.

    I think I’m a bit high on them, but its that time of year.

    Yeah, it’s the time of the year that’s rife with irrational exuberance.

    After that season opener against Calgary, the Oilers looked unstoppable. Ha.

    dom luszczyszyn’s model didn’t like the Oilers last year. I don’t think it does this year either though his final prediction isn’t out yet.

  85. rickithebear says:

    Wilde:
    Read your analysis of the PP.

    Which is really a presentation of 5-6000 year old targeting premise.
    1.it has to get thier to do damGe.
    2. It easier to hit a target the closer you are.
    3. Thier is an optimal distance to a barrier defence before getting closer starts to cause a decline in success.
    4. Changing angle of path leads to more success.
    5. Being flin Flon bomber tough and defend and penetrate the high success targeting areas.
    The whole concept of taking advantage of HD area.

    HD theory! Crazy.

  86. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: Yeah, it’s the time of the year that’s rife with irrational exuberance.

    After that season opener against Calgary, the Oilers looked unstoppable. Ha.

    dom luszczyszyn’s model didn’t like the Oilers last year. I don’t think it does this year either though his final prediction isn’t out yet.

    I was 29 out of 52 in Micah Blake McCurdy’s point prediction contest last year.

    Dom’s model was 31st.

  87. Pescador says:

    jonrmcleod:
    I’M BACK, BABY!

    *it suddenly dawns on him that no one knew he was ever gone*

    welcome back mr Cutter,
    hopefully you aren’t just here to take the piss

  88. Pescador says:

    rickithebear:

    HD theory! Crazy.

    not necessarily

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I wonder how long they wait on Hart before they give him a chance.I would be surprised if he doesn’t see some time with the club this year
    I have trouble docking Phillys young defense too much cause for the east they are actually pretty good already.It’s hard to get excited about too many of the defensive corps in the east.
    Toronto, Meh.Florida meh.NJ same.Pittsburgh.
    So they actually have one of the better d corpse out of the playoff teams.Only ones I’d say they are behind is Tampa, Boston, Carolina,

    I don’t know what to make of them.

    Many of them had much better GF% than DFF% vs Elites, but that’s because Couts is a killer (imo) especially with Giroux.

    Now Couts is starting the year with a knee injury. Big deal.

    Here’s their WM QoC TOI vs Elites last year:
    Provorov 46%
    MacDonald 40%
    Gostisbehere 39%
    Hagg 38%
    Manning 32%
    Sandheim 27%
    Gudas 29%

    MacDonald’s still a big drag CF% wise on everyone.

    Provorov and Gostisbehere were a pretty good pair, much better than Provorov-MacDonald

    Hagg-MacDonald were not.

    Do they run that as their top 4 with Sandheim-Gudas on 3rd pair?

    They finished last year with MacDonald-Sandheim as 2nd pair. Do they start that way?

    I don’t know what think past Provorov-Gostisbehere

  90. rickithebear says:

    It drove me nuts when people would say that shoting % is not sustainable.
    But as the 512 groups of team, comp, ZS show, thier are clearly diffrent averages for each group to regress to.
    Diffrent situations with diffrent ranges so diffrentbregressions for each.

    Regression is thier. But to establish clear independent performance baseline
    Then you start to identify the outlying mechsnisms that achieve the +ve for each situation.
    As I started in first years of this blog,

    Peo0e argued not enough sample size
    Not enough sample size.
    That is a university concept.

    The situation averages stood out even before the necassary data size.
    All the data provides is a slide in the matrix to rstznlish the know means for a situation a player is in and compare thier performance.

    What Wilde discovered was obvious Years ago with simple checks.
    Perimeter shots over interior have no value unless they are Forward rate effective.
    In the last few years the slap pass has become a tool.
    So the two must pe differentiated.
    Which have stated in the past.

    Back to same fwd vs rover/dmen GF pocesdion efficiency.
    I stated years ago thier are not many viably effective Dmen shooting % next to the 6-7 PP top shooting% fwds on each team and PPGF/60 forwards. They should see as much PPTOI possible.

    9 year ago all you had to do was look at rough base 1:30 to 2:00 PPTOI were stall in count occurred.
    Forwards count varied from 208 to 222
    Dmen count varied from 75 to 95 but largely was between 80 to 87.

    The forward PPSH% data on either side of the median from 07-8 to 17-18 varied from 14.6-15.6% by yr.
    With the overall average from 15.1 to 15.2%

    The dmen PPSH% data on either side of median was from 9-10 to 16-17 we saw 7.1 to 7.7%
    With average of 7.3 to 7.4%
    7-8&8-9 averaged 8.5-8.6% around the median.
    17-18 was 8.1% to 8.2%

    7-8 to 17-18 had a range of 5-9 dmen above the forward median except for 15-16/were thier were 11.
    The average for that time was 7.3 Dmen having above median SH%

    I allways look for repeat players in the groups of 5-9
    Like in the past.
    MAB
    MARKOV
    Vishnovsky
    Chara
    Weber
    Martin
    Giordano
    Enstrom
    Gilbert

    And recent
    Chara
    Weber
    Doughty
    Giordano
    OEL
    Enstrom
    Russell

    Thier PP shots are justified.
    Funny EDM did not use Russell’s shot the last 2 seasons considering he was 2/3 the 3 seasons before.
    This is for those that really want offence who kept saying we need that point shot.

    Bouchard who looks like a calm Def dman will get dome whispering.
    I had to go back on as many Point shots I could see.
    A lot of slap passes.
    With a well directed shot
    He fits why dream Dman balance if he can take on a 1st/2nd comp down the road.

  91. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Yeah it’s hard to know how quickly these young guys are going to take over but I think it happens sooner than later. I think Myers will beat out one of these guys sometime this year. They got rid of their crappy Ricki defenseman in Manning. They’re in a process of phasing some of these guys out and subbing in Sanheim and Myers. How quickly these guys move up the depth chart is key

  92. N64 says:

    Pescador: #16 had some attitude issues to work through, back to junior haven’t heard from him since.
    #33 showed up to camp out of shape & got sent home.
    Slow feet & shy offensively, was never going to make the jump. Wasted pick imo

    ~ not how i recall it. #16 refused to sign and we traded him to the Isles for Josh Ho-Sang who got sent to Bakersfield in December. ~

  93. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Not to take an overly negative approach, but having combed over the PA Raiders rosters from 2003 to last season (during Dave Manson’s tenure), the only noteworthy defenseman to come out of the club are Josh Morrissey and Brendan Guhle.

    At this point, Trent Yawney has enough of a track record to be called a d-man whisperer, but I’m not yet convinced Manson has earned the mantle.

    Either way, I’m still excited to have him working with the boys in the Bake.

  94. rickithebear says:

    Pescador: not necessarily

    I posted this stuff years ago.

    A Simplified above median test.
    For dmens shot translation value on PP.

    Rebound is a 2nd phase measure which requires results from possible superior outcome options to identify the best sytem for success and options to play off structure.
    Phase play a simple game anslysis aproach required for proper sports analytics.
    Rebounds
    FO from
    Opp zone clearance from
    Opp SH HD shots from.

    All part of multi varisble success map.

    D. Sutter “we are turning players into robots.”
    That is why the man walked away.
    Thier taking the coaching away.
    With repeating high probability systems and actions.

    Once again I have said for years.

  95. tileguy says:

    Bouchards goal, slapshot from a static position. Somebody mentioned the other day that he has to learn to walk the line and change his shooting angle. Something to keep an eye on this September.

  96. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: If they sign him to a contract, I would think its to play in the NHL and not re-assign to Bakersfield.

    They also have Jones, Lagesson, Lowe on the left side…..

    He may just be a Nurse placeholder. They’ve signed a lot of LD. Nobody including in Bake has much NHL experience. It’ll be interesting how it shakes out. PC is stockpiling D. The right side up and down is still thin

  97. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    tileguy,

    That was me, referencing recent observations by Ryan Rishaug.

    And agreed, watching his development will be fascinating. Can he develop into a strong two-way defenseman, or is he merely a rover?

  98. dustrock says:

    Woodguy I have dark horsed Carolina the last 2 years and looked pretty stupid.

    I want to dark horse them again this year. Hopefully getting Hamilton is the difference maker and surely goaltending will improve.

  99. Lowetide says:

    tileguy:
    Bouchards goal, slapshot from a static position. Somebody mentioned the other day that he has to learn to walk the line and change his shooting angle. Something to keep an eye on this September.

    Based on conversations with Brock Otten and others, Bouchard is already exceptional at finding ways to get his shot through. Speed of the pro game a different matter but he can think on his feet based on reports.

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Yeah it’s hard to know how quickly these young guys are going to take over but I think it happens sooner than later.I think Myers will beat out one of these guys sometime this year.They got rid of their crappy Ricki defenseman in Manning.They’re in a process of phasing some of these guys out and subbing in Sanheim and Myers.How quickly these guys move up the depth chart is key

    If Myers wins a spot in camp Pete should trade for Gudas

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    dustrock:
    Woodguy I have dark horsed Carolina the last 2 years and looked pretty stupid.

    I want to dark horse them again this year. Hopefully getting Hamilton is the difference maker and surely goaltending will improve.

    Not just Hamilton, but Hamilton and De Haan.

    That’s a pair that could play 1st pair. That’s a big deal imo.

    They lost some scoring with Skinner and Lindholm, but you only have to score more than the other guy.

    Darling bouncing back is a huge deal.

  102. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wasn’t Gudas heavily sheltered? Or is there underlying data that suggests he can handle higher QoC and not get slaughtered?

    I like his truculence but we need more of a sure thing at 2RD than 3RD.

  103. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If Myers wins a spot in camp Pete should trade for Gudas

    I endorse this message

  104. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here is my prediction/guess at the final NHL 18/19 standings:

    This may change before game 1 as teams change players or injuries happen during camp.

    Note:I will only accept shit talk if you post your own prediction/guess of the final standings as well. If you do, then hammer away!

    We will not accept “I haven’t looked at everyone yet so I don’t have every team, but team X is way too low/high”

    Keep that weak sauce away from my brisket!

    Eastern Conference
    TBY116
    WSH104
    PIT102
    BOS102
    FLA101
    CAR97

    Wildcard
    TOR100
    CBJ96

    Out of playoffs
    PHI95
    NJD86
    BUF82
    NYI78
    NYR78
    DET66
    MTL65
    OTT62

    Western Conference
    NSH114
    MIN108
    ANA106
    SJS100
    WPG98
    ARI96

    Wildcard
    STL97
    EDM95

    Out of playoffs
    LAK94
    DAL92
    CGY88
    COL86
    CHI84
    VGK84
    VAN68

    *feels disturbance in the force as if millions cried out about ARI and CAR at once, but were silenced as they went to work on their standings*

    Thanks WG for this work.

    The thing that occurs to me looking at each roster is that most are holey. There are a few deep D corps and a few deep forward corps, There are a couple that arguably have both.

    Coaching and culture play such a huge part in this, and injuries. Which is why we can see strong teams based largely on previous success, but picking final four is a crap shoot.

    I like the Oilers a lot based on a step forward in coaching and culture. Top 10 in the league to me. The weakness is at D and getting competent goalering of course. If role players don’t shit the bed and play like they do on good teams I see playoffs no problem.

    The Jets are the deepest team on our half. We’ll see if they have the gumption to get it done.

    I see the Dogs and Canes maybe having strong seasons but I see meh in both. Good, but bland as in the Blues, Wild, and Preds of the past. Not enough spark.

  105. ashley says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here is my prediction/guess at the final NHL 18/19 standings:

    This may change before game 1 as teams change players or injuries happen during camp.

    Note:I will only accept shit talk if you post your own prediction/guess of the final standings as well. If you do, then hammer away!

    We will not accept “I haven’t looked at everyone yet so I don’t have every team, but team X is way too low/high”

    Keep that weak sauce away from my brisket!

    Eastern Conference
    TBY116
    WSH104
    PIT102
    BOS102
    FLA101
    CAR97

    Wildcard
    TOR100
    CBJ96

    Out of playoffs
    PHI95
    NJD86
    BUF82
    NYI78
    NYR78
    DET66
    MTL65
    OTT62

    Western Conference
    NSH114
    MIN108
    ANA106
    SJS100
    WPG98
    ARI96

    Wildcard
    STL97
    EDM95

    Out of playoffs
    LAK94
    DAL92
    CGY88
    COL86
    CHI84
    VGK84
    VAN68

    *feels disturbance in the force as if millions cried out about ARI and CAR at once, but were silenced as they went to work on their standings*

    This all looks spot on to me EXCEPT the Flames. I think they make the post season, possibly with ease.

    I know, the weakest saucing of all sauces. It’s painful for me too.

  106. Bruce McCurdy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Manson plus Yawney added to the organization with the depth of D prospects this team has started to accumulate and with Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse and Benning still being 25 and under – great, just great, adds.

    Manny V was a defenceman also, with a mind for the offensive side of the equation. It’s a nice mix.

  107. leadfarmer says:

    Gerta Rauss: I endorse this message

    I think you guys will have to wait a year. They have enough youth that they will want to keep some depth for when wobble hits.

  108. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: Bouchard is already exceptional at finding ways to get his shot through. Speed of the pro game a different matter but he can think on his feet based on reports.

    That goal he scored looks very good. Pro-like. Bung him and Ethan Bear on the points and Bingo! Thats a good NHL powerplay. With Connor McDavid on the other end? I almost pity the other team which is more than enough reason to keep the Lucics and Kassians around – because the other teams are going to want to kill McDavid.

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wasn’t Gudas heavily sheltered?Or is there underlying data that suggests he can handle higher QoC and not get slaughtered?

    I like his truculence but we need more of a sure thing at 2RD than 3RD.

    This past year was poor for Gudas.

    Showed much better in previous years.

    Coach doesn’t like him and I think he’s a great 3RD and a good 2RD, but last year is a concern.

    Is under contract this year and next at 3.35 so it probably doesn’t happen.

  110. leadfarmer says:

    https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/nhl-team-by-team-over-under-point-projections-for-2018-19
    Under on Boston? Because of 3 years before last year?
    The hockey news
    I don’t think I would even wrap Woodguys fish in that magazine

  111. hunter1909 says:

    leadfarmer:
    https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/nhl-team-by-team-over-under-point-projections-for-2018-19
    Under on Boston?Because of 3 years before last year?
    The hockey news
    I don’t think I would even wrap Woodguys fish in that magazine

    Fake news

    Bwahahahahaha

  112. Gret99zky says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Its nit-picking, not nip.

    Blame your phone.

    This would make an excellent Christmas card.

  113. Gerta Rauss says:

    leadfarmer: I think you guys will have to wait a year.They have enough youth that they will want to keep some depth for when wobble hits.

    I tend to agree and they’ve got their contracts/dollars set up for a conservative approach wrt the LTIR money

    -sign Nurse to something that starts with a 3-that puts them snug to the cap
    -Sekera to LTIR on day 1- LTIR cushion will be $5M and change
    -sign the PTO’s
    -off they go

    It really depends on the severity of Sekera’s injury-if he’s coming back this season the above is the prudent play

  114. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They need a certain percentage of veteran NHLer to play in the pre-season.Each game has a minimum of vets needed.

    There is a reasonable chance Nurse isn’t signed when they start playing.

    Garrison on a PTO would keep them from overplaying their starting vets if that happens.

    Good call!

  115. hunter1909 says:

    I can tell my annual myopia re this team is starting…

    – Nurse breaks out

    – Bouchard makes the team ala the 18 year old Scott Stevens

    – McDavid goes insane to start the season(this IS going to happen 100% everyone run to the bank with this one)

    – the new assistant coaches know wtf they’re doing

    – the politics re McLellan/Chiarelli/the usual suspects are put to rest with the aura of success

    – Paul Coffey finds his calling as a post/NHLer as a mentor to the defence and shines(excuse this, but Coffey was and remains my all time fave Oiler)

    – the goalies stop enough pucks to not hurt the fragile egos on the team

    – RNH finally blossoms alongside McGenius

    – Draisaitl finally settles down and plays centre, actually coming close to making his ridiculous salary

    – Santa Claus’s factory turns out a record amount of toys

    OR:

    The season starts off like last year and Keith Gretzky takes over the GM position.

  116. Pescador says:

    hunter1909:
    I can tell my annual myopia re this team is starting…

    – Nurse breaks out

    – Bouchard makes the team ala the 18 year old Scott Stevens

    – McDavid goes insane to start the season(this IS going to happen 100% everyone run to the bank with this one)

    – the new assistant coaches know wtf they’re doing

    – the politics re McLellan/Chiarelli/the usual suspects are put to rest with the aura of success

    – Paul Coffey finds his calling as a post/NHLer as a mentor to the defence and shines(excuse this, but Coffey was and remains my all time fave Oiler)

    – the goalies stop enough pucks to not hurt the fragile egos on the team

    – RNH finally blossoms alongside McGenius

    – Draisaitl finally settles down and plays centre, actually coming close to making his ridiculous salary

    – Santa Claus’s factory turns out a record amount of toys

    OR:

    The season starts off like last year and Keith Gretzky takes over the GM position.

    Chiarello will fire Mclellan before he gets the hook.
    Especially if the season goes in the toilet by Xmas

  117. Pescador says:

    pts2pndr: Good call!

    This is a league mandate for pre season?

  118. Pescador says:

    Gerta Rauss: I tend to agree and they’ve got their contracts/dollars set up for a conservative approach wrt the LTIR money

    -sign Nurse to something that starts with a 3-that puts them snug to the cap
    -Sekera to LTIR on day 1- LTIR cushion will be $5M and change
    -sign the PTO’s
    -off they go

    It really depends on the severity of Sekera’s injury-if he’s coming back this season the above is the prudent play

    Sekera coming back off of injury This season would be downright scary.
    He came back too damn early after rehabbing last year,
    The results were disastrous,
    The roster can’t take on extra salary in case he returns? Oy

  119. hunter1909 says:

    Pescador: Chiarello will fire Mclellan before he gets the hook.
    Especially if the season goes in the toilet by Xmas

    I’ll buy that for a dollar!

    Question to the mob:

    What exactly is wrong with McLellan? He seems like a youthful version of OTC, which isn’t a bad thing.

    What specifically does he do that drives everyone crazy?

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: Sekera coming back off of injury This season would be downright scary.
    He came back too damn early after rehabbing last year,
    The results were disastrous,
    The roster can’t take on extra salary in case he returns? Oy

    It depends.

    When (if) Sekera comes off LTIR, the LTIR cushion that we have disappears immediately and we can no longer go over go over the cap by any amount.

    With that said, the cap gets calculated on a daily basis so any amount the team is under the cap (well, the cap plus the LTIR cushion that we get) will be usable later in the year.

    For example, lets say we are at $79M on day 1 of the season which is $500K under the cap. We then place Sekera on LTIR which allows us to go over the cap by $5M (Sekera’s $5.5M minus the $500K below the cap we were).

    If we add a $3.5M player to the roster (somehow), we will be $2M under the cap plus LTIR cushion so we would accumulate a pro rated porition of that $2M each day that can be used when Sekera comes off LTIR.

  121. David says:

    hunter1909: I’ll buy that for a dollar!

    Question to the mob:

    What exactly is wrong with McLellan? He seems like a youthful version of OTC, which isn’t a bad thing.

    What specifically does he do that drives everyone crazy?

    For me the two biggest things are:

    1.) No consistency of line mates. Looking at other teams they have players playing 500, 600, 700, 800 mins together in a season. The top oilers were in the 200’s and 300’s. This is a big deal.

    2.) The Oilers had psychological issues last year with thinking they were big shots who would coast to the stanley and then quickly flipped to beaten and fragile self doubters. To me the mental state of mind of their team is a huge role the coach plays. You can look at specific players as well such as Lucic or Talbot who were mentally shaken.

    I have also been unhappy with his use of Puljujarvi

    For other people it’s his lack of line matching

    “The team in orange” comments

    Draisaitl with McDavid

    Caggiula (I have to admit to liking Caggiula)

    Special teams struggles (and keeping Lucic on the power play for all of time)

  122. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: It depends.

    When (if) Sekera comes off LTIR, the LTIR cushion that we have disappears immediately and we can no longer go over go over the cap by any amount.

    With that said, the cap gets calculated on a daily basis so any amount the team is under the cap (well, the cap plus the LTIR cushion that we get) will be usable later in the year.

    For example, lets say we are at $79M on day 1 of the season which is $500K under the cap.We then place Sekera on LTIR which allows us to go over the cap by $5M (Sekera’s $5.5M minus the $500K below the cap we were).

    If we add a $3.5M player to the roster (somehow), we will be $2M under the cap plus LTIR cushion so we would accumulate a pro rated porition of that $2M each day that can be used when Sekera comes off LTIR.

    I believe that you are incorrect here.

    I’ve always understood that cap space cannot be accrued when using the LTIR cushion.

  123. Pescador says:

    hunter1909: I’ll buy that for a dollar!

    Question to the mob:

    What exactly is wrong with McLellan? He seems like a youthful version of OTC, which isn’t a bad thing.

    What specifically does he do that drives everyone crazy?

    Not winning the Stanley Cup for the Oilers has been a real bugaboo of mine for 3 years now

  124. Pescador says:

    David: For me the two biggest things are:

    1.) No consistency of line mates. Looking at other teams they have players playing 500, 600, 700, 800 mins together in a season. The top oilers were in the 200’s and 300’s. This is a big deal.

    2.) The Oilers had psychological issues last year with thinking they were big shots who would coast to the stanley and then quickly flipped to beaten and fragile self doubters. To me the mental state of mind of their team is a huge role the coach plays. You can look at specific players as well such as Lucic or Talbot who were mentally shaken.

    I have also been unhappy with his use of Puljujarvi

    For other people it’s his lack of line matching

    “The team in orange” comments

    Draisaitl with McDavid

    Caggiula (I have to admit to liking Caggiula)

    Special teams struggles (and keeping Lucic on the power play for all of time)

    I like Caggiula as well, on the 4th line.

    Coach Todd seemed to rarely if ever take the blame for the poor results. Last time I checked it was the HC’s responsibility to have his team ready to go at puck drop. Yet the team was always on the back foot, either by being sorely outplayed or by giving up the first goal game in & game out.
    Talbot should shoulder some of that.

    Fucking McBlender needs to be used sparingly not constantly

  125. Wilde says:

    Lowetide: I’ll be thrilled. It would mean the team kept their picks, kept Puljujarvi and won the playoffs. It would mean the Oilers finally stopped digging.

    You may be right, but I think it would depend on the successor to the current GM and what they perceive their timeline to be.

    I think if the team wins again, that might mean the leash is looser on the general manager (as it always should be; but anyways) and he may feel emboldened to make a move again.

    Peter Chiarelli appears to make moves based off of playoff outcomes. If a player disappears during the playoffs that are won, are they gone? Is that player Ryan Nugent-Hopkins this time?

    Say the Oilers end up with a soft first-round matchup. It’s the Sharks, but Thornton is injured again, and so is Vlasic! Yet 97-93 are snakebitten/get robbed despite not having to deal with the opposing team’s best defender, and Nuge is moved off of the line in favour of another LW.

    Then, McDavid starts scoring but the Oilers goaltending collapses en route to getting swept (while most of the pundits have predicted a 7-game contest due to the Sharks injuries) and there’s another pre-McDavid veteran with a poor playoff performance in a small sample sitting through the summer. And we’re all just wondering what happens in late June.

  126. oilersfan says:

    Woodguy, I love your prediction that the flames miss the playoffs

    With their moves this offseason can you explain it?

    Is it because Gio is 35 and they traded their top Dman for a third pairing one?

    Or because their 36 year old goalie is injured a lot?

  127. Wilde says:

    It’s funny that this is our psychology though, simply hoping for outcomes that will placate the madmen over any other.

  128. Wilde says:

    From NHL.com’s top 50 prospects:

    “The Oilers believe Bouchard (6-2, 193) can develop into a high-end offensive defenseman in the NHL, but they are not expected to rush him. He will get a long look at training camp to see how his offensive skills translate in the NHL but likely will return for a fourth season with London.

    Projected NHL arrival: 2020-21 season”

  129. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/nhl-team-by-team-over-under-point-projections-for-2018-19
    Under on Boston?Because of 3 years before last year?
    The hockey news
    I don’t think I would even wrap Woodguys fish in that magazine

    My guesses disagreed with theirs in 10 spots, 4 in EC and 6 in WC

    TOR
    BUF
    PIT
    CBJ

    WPG
    MIN
    DAL
    CGY
    EDM
    ARI

    So at the end of the year I expect I’m right on 5 and they’re right on 5.

    The line I don’t understand is DAL at 96.5

    Hamhuis and Pateryn were fed the toughest minutes and toughest zone starts by a mile and neither is back with the team.

    I guess they expect Methot to slide into Hamhuis’ spot, but who slides into Pateryn? (RD)

    Maybe that’s why they’ve been chasing Karlsson so hard, but they kinda already have a Karlsson in Klingberg.

    You can’t shield every pairing from the toughs.

  130. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Something I love is when a unit of players gets absolutely fed to the wolves, puts up awful numbers and gets scored on a ton, and then they get cut loose at the end of the season and the fanbase goes “great, addition by subtraction!!”.

    And it’s like… the same thing’s going to happen to the next guys you do that to. If it ends up being power v. power as a solution, they’ll be talking about Klingberg underperforming and that “the best players need to be the best players”.

  131. Lowetide says:

    Wilde: You may be right, but I think it would depend on the successor to the current GM and what they perceive their timeline to be.

    I think if the team wins again, that might mean the leash is looser on the general manager (as it always should be; but anyways) and he may feel emboldened to make a move again.

    Peter Chiarelli appears to make moves based off of playoff outcomes. If a player disappears during the playoffs that are won, are they gone? Is that player Ryan Nugent-Hopkins this time?

    Say the Oilers end up with a soft first-round matchup. It’s the Sharks, but Thornton is injured again, and so is Vlasic! Yet 97-93 are snakebitten/get robbed despite not having to deal with the opposing team’s best defender, and Nuge is moved off of the line in favour of another LW.

    Then, McDavid starts scoring but the Oilers goaltending collapses en route to getting swept(while most of the pundits have predicted a 7-game contest due to the Sharks injuries) and there’s another pre-McDavid veteran with a poor playoff performance in a small sample sitting through the summer. And we’re all just wondering what happens in late June.

    Generally speaking, I think the Oilers making the playoffs while keeping all of their young players is a good thing. One can create a scenario where it comes back to bite the team (McDavid asks for trade!) but for the here and now letting the kids develop in a playoff season is a very nice spot.

  132. Wilde says:

    Lowetide,

    I just have this persistent psychosis where I worry the team’s ceiling isn’t that high without another impact forward. I create scenarios where the Oilers win a lottery into a top 3 pick(from, say, eight picks upfield) daily.

    It sounds insane, as an Oilers fan, to be like, gimme more! But it just feels like they’re down a guy unless Puljujarvi absolutely slingshots into Marian Hossa.

  133. frjohnk says:

    Wilde: the team’s ceiling isn’t that high without another impact forward.

    I agree with you here. I think we need at least 1 more impact player, and another impact/very good complimentary player to be in the conversation of the elite teams.

    This not only provides cover for injury to McDavid and Draisaitl but also provides the scoring needed to win if they get shut down.

  134. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Something I love is when a unit of players gets absolutely fed to the wolves, puts up awful numbers and gets scored on a ton, and then they get cut loose at the end of the season and the fanbase goes “great, addition by subtraction!!”.

    And it’s like… the same thing’s going to happen to the next guys you do that to. If it ends up being power v. power as a solution, they’ll be talking about Klingberg underperforming and that “the best players need to be the best players”.

    Rinse, repeat

  135. Lowetide says:

    Wilde:
    Lowetide,

    I just have this persistent psychosis where I worry the team’s ceiling isn’t that high without another impact forward. I create scenarios where the Oilers win a lottery into a top 3 pick(from, say, eight picks upfield) daily.

    It sounds insane, as an Oilers fan, to be like, gimme more! But it just feels like they’re down a guy unless Puljujarvi absolutely slingshots into Marian Hossa.

    I agree, just posted on that and there’s a line in there that matches what you’re saying. It’s painful but watching these kids grow up is better than a quick fix. Puljujarvi and Yamamoto are going to repay patience, pretty sure.

  136. fireantz says:

    leadfarmer,

    SAN Jose!

  137. Bling says:

    Lowetide,

    I agree with this.

    I don’t buy the narrative that JP/KY have to be world beaters right now to contend for the playoffs. JP is already a solid NHLer who needs to be given more ice time, and KY will be a solid NHLer by mid season.

    If one or both of those two pop, then you’re looking at a very, very good team IMO, provided the D stays healthy.

  138. Andy Dufresne says:

    tileguy:
    Bouchards goal, slapshot from a static position. Somebody mentioned the other day that he has to learn to walk the line and change his shooting angle. Something to keep an eye on this September.

    There were a couple of good articles at the Athletic out around draft week that did comprehesive assessments of the top 5 or 6 draft eligble dmen. One head to head comparison was Noah Dobson vs Evan Bouchard. It stated that one of Bouchards clear advantages over Dobson was his ability to hold the line, walk the line, and change the angle of his shots from the line, particularly on the powerplay.

    It was noted that this seemed to run contrary to most analysts intuition given that Dobson was clearly the better and more agile skater.

    Agreed it will be interesting to watch/assess.

  139. Andy Dufresne says:

    Most interesting season ahead.

    In priority order for me in terms of my curiosity

    1) Goaltending Tandem
    2) Jessie Puljuarvi The real deal or not?
    3) Head Coach When faced with adversity Chia changed his ways ( didnt trade Klef, JP or the 1st over the summer) he became Patient Pete. Can Tmac do the same. Can he adapt his coaching style to better fit the roster he is being given?
    4) Trio of new assistant coaches. How much power/influence will be they be given and what affect will they have on the systems play? Paricularly special teams.
    5) Will the McDavid RNH duo be set in stone and if so what will the result look like in terms of points over the course of a full year.
    6) In what “new” manner will Conner elevate his game this year? for me last year he improved his shot taking both in terms of quantity and quality. What will it be this year?
    7) Oscar Klebom. Given a healthy season, can he become a legit top pairing two-way defensman? Can he put up 40 pts while playing a strong defensive game? Can he carry a pairing that inlcudes the likes of a player like Matt Benning, or will he be heavily reliant on a defense stud like Adam Larsson.
    8) Leon Draisaitl. Can he push the river as the second line center?
    9) Milan Lucic. Can he regain his form from the 2016-17 season. Can he perform at the $4million level.
    10) Ryan Strome. He showed a lot of progress last year. Can he out-perform his $3.1 salary as a 3rd line center?

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