Blue Collar

Play is already underway in many parts of the hockey world and some Oilers prospects are posting crooked numbers. Goalie Olivier Rodrigue (2, 3.00 .880 for Drummondville Voltigeurs), Evan Bouchard (1, 1-2-3 for the London Knights), Filip Berglund (2, 2-1-3 for Skelleftea in Champions League), Joel Persson (2, 1-2-3 for Vaxjo Lakers in Champions League), Markus Niemelainen (6, 0-1-1 for HPK, Sm-Liiga) and Patrik Siikanen (3, 2-2-4 Blues of the Jr Sm-Liiga) are rocking in the free world and that means we’re getting closer to hockey across all leagues.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

MICHAEL KESSELRING

Young blue is committing to Northeastern, which sucks for Merrimack. Nice words written about him here, suspect we don’t have him surrounded as a prospect yet.

PROSPECT TREE, WHAT’S ON IT?

The Oilers added three solid pieces and a couple of distant bells at the draft, but as is the case with Kesselring, it takes time to find out about a player. Many of these players could qualify under more than one category, I’ve made a decision on each and your mileage may vary.

  • Goalies: Stuart Skinner, Dylan Wells, Shane Starrett, Hayden Hawkey, Olivier Rodrigue
  • Puck Moving Blue: Evan Bouchard, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Filip Berglund, Joel Persson, Matt Cairns, Michael Kesselring 
  • Two-Way Blue: Ryan Mantha, Dmitri Samorukov, John Marino
  • Shutdown Blue: William Lagesson, Keegan Lowe, Phil Kemp, Vincent Desharnais, Markus Niemelainen
  • Playmaking Center: Cooper Marody
  • Two-Way Center: Ryan McLeod, Tyler Vesel, Aapeli Rasanen, Bogdan Yakimov, Joe Gambardella, Skyler Brind’Amour
  • Scoring Forward: Kailer Yamamoto, Ty Rattie, Kirill Maksimov, Ostap Safin, Cameron Hebig, Patrick Siikanen
  • Two-Way Winger: Tyler Benson, Nolan Vesey, Graham McPhee, J.D. Dudek 
  • Checking Forward: Patrick Russell, Colin Larkin

Now, we can fight and argue and argue and fight (hat tip: The Wackers) about where Evan Bouchard belongs, but he isn’t a ‘complete defenseman’ and I had to choose between offensive and two-way. Choose your poison.

WILDE

Wilde is an interesting poster, thoughtful and does the work required to make a point (the most valuable of all skills for blog members). Yesterday, Wilde (Keith Anthony) said:

  • There’s nothing concrete here past three players, to round out a top six you need two ~20 year olds to hit and Lucic to bounce back.

Aside from the fancy squiggly thing (Wilde has a fancy typewriter!) he frames the point beautifully. Edmonton has to find players who can successfully round out the top six. That won’t happen overnight, and last year’s group (the 1994’s) are in Russia (Anton Slepyshev) or trying to fend off Scottie Upshall (Drake Caggiula and Jujhar Khaira).

My top six scorers in the RE model this season are Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Jesse Puljujarvi, Ryan Strome and Milan Lucic. Ideally, Puljujarvi is joined by Kailer Yamamoto on the skill lines this year but the young Spokane Chiefs winger may spend a lot of time in Bakersfield. Ty Rattie could join the group too, but that could be a short-term item.

A lot of this happens via chemistry. They didn’t gift Wayne Gretzky’s RW spot to Jari Kurri, it just became an obvious fit. Norm Lacombe was placed on a line with Mark Messier and Glenn Anderson when he came over from Buffalo, and damned near got killed trying to join the center ice ‘criss cross’ the two veterans deployed to confuse the defense (Messier and Anderson would change wings at center, with one or the other grabbing the puck depending on defensive alignment on the sortie).

We can talk about Nuge-McDavid-Puljujarvi being a great idea, or Lucic-Draisaitl-Yamamoto having appeal, but they have to find chem and someone has to be the defensive conscience. That’s why (imo) the two key wingers are going to be Nuge and Tobias Rieder, and that means one of Lucic, Puljujarvi or Yamamoto will be outside the top two lines.

We’re in about the same spot now as the organization was on the day Jordan Eberle was traded. If JP and KY and Rieder aren’t the answer, prepare for new arrivals over next summer. There’s no secret to this, although a No. 4 overall pick should be the prohibitive favorite to win the day.

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143 Responses to "Blue Collar"

  1. JustWatt says:

    Don’t think a single poster is going to argue for seeing the much-teased LT “balance” photo this year. And with the McDavid/Draisaitl contracts on the books it’ll be years before the cap goes up enough to fit a balanced roster around those two giants among men, if ever. What can an unbalanced, top-heavy team do to give itself a chance to win it all?

  2. Lowetide says:

    JustWatt:
    Don’t think a single poster is going to argue for seeing the much-teased LT “balance” photo this year. And with the McDavid/Draisaitl contracts on the books it’ll be years before the cap goes up enough to fit a balanced roster around those two giants among men, if ever. What can an unbalanced, top-heavy team do to give itself a chance to win it all?

    Draft and develop.

  3. Woogie63 says:

    My hope is that McDavid, like Sid, makes a player out of a line mate who knows how to play with a generational player.

    Sid has made Rust, Sheahan, and Guentzal fill out a line and contribute to the sum.

    McDavid elevated Maroon.

    This year can Rattie, Aberg or Rieder contribute to the sum?

  4. Ryan says:

    Ryan: Yes, the margins when you actually run the numbers make the issue more trivial than I thought.
    However, in principle before I ran the numbers I started with the premise that if you take 1 minute of 5v5 time away from McDavid and give him 1 minute of PK time, you’re making a sucker’s bet.
    Basically, if you do that in principle, you’re betting that a Jujhar or Drake or a Latestu is going to perform better at 5v5 in that minute per game over the course of a season than McDavid. You’re going to lose that bet all down the roster.
    Conversely, you’re also betting that McDavid is going to PK better than a Jujhar, or Letestu. In this case, you’ll be right more than wrong, but you’ll still be wrong last year with Jujhar and the year prior with Drake and Anton Lander.
    Speaking of Lander, he scored 2.98 GF/60 on the PK two years ago.
    Last season, Mclellan ran his top 3 offensive players for over 3 and half minutes per game on the PK!
    Now at evens, a Draisatl, McDavid, or Nuge is always going to outperform a bottom sixer, but on the PK not necessarily.
    Last year on the PK collectively, Draisatl, McDavid, and Nuge were out performed by 1.67 goals per hour by JJ, Strome, and Kassian. If you multiply that per sixty rate by 3.5 hours of ice time, you have lost 5.85 goals on the season.
    At evens, the opposite was true in which predictably an average of +0.92 goals per hour. So there you scrounge another 3.22 goals.
    In total and it’s not really completely fair because of the volatility in the 4v5 numbers, you could have nine goals on the season. That’s enough for two wins.
    So yeah, let’s play the heck out of Nuge, McDavid, and Draisatl on the PK so that Kassian, Strome, and JJ can get more time playing at evens.

    jp: I’m still not convinced that running offensive players on the PK is necessarily a bad idea. Much less sure of that actually than when I started.

    I understand the logic of your premise, but the numbers don’t provide clear cut support for it.

    If McDavid can score at a near 5×5 rate on the PK without the PK giving up more because of it that’s winning those minutes relative to what other players could do. And that’s what McDavid did last year. His PK numbers, when you take into account the goals for we’re better than most of his teammates.

    JJs results were better, but his GA numbers were also out of line with CA, SA, etc. Also, it’s not at all fair to question McDavids results based on small sample size then use other equally small sample sizes to say others performed better.

    I’m acknowledging that McDavids 17-18 numbers may not be repeatable, and could additionally be driven by an overly aggressive PK. He could also be a really good PKer who’ll keep scoring at unusual rates SH. I don’t know. But i’m also not seeing anything that strongly supports your position.

    Well, the argument has shifted to encapsulate the heavy usage of the Oilers top 3 scorers on the PK.

    Though the math at 4v5 is flawed (sample size, volatility), the combined total is a nine goal swing in the Oilers favour. That’s two wins in today’s NHL.

    Also Mclellan rode his top 3 scorers heavily on the PK to the end result of a 25th ranked PK.

  5. jtblack says:

    JustWatt:
    Don’t think a single poster is going to argue for seeing the much-teased LT “balance” photo this year. And with the McDavid/Draisaitl contracts on the books it’ll be years before the cap goes up enough to fit a balanced roster around those two giants among men, if ever. What can an unbalanced, top-heavy team do to give itself a chance to win it all?

    We are like Chicago; but without the 3 Cups. & our big contracts are in their prime.

    The challenge I see is that it may take a few “more” years to have a Balanced roster. Even then, it’s so hard to win it all.

    T.B. – strong for 5 years. 1 Cup appearance
    S.J – strong for 15 years. 1 Cup appearance
    St L – varying degrees of good for 15 years. Notta
    Ana – Been great since their Cup win; Never been back
    Wash – Finally exercised the demons after 10 yrs of Good.
    Etc
    Etc

    if it takes 2 years to get balanced (competitive year in amd year out); McDavid will have played 5 Years. We Wait

  6. Ryan says:

    Woogie63:
    My hope is that McDavid, like Sid, makes a player out of a line mate who knows how to play with a generational player.

    Sid has made Rust, Sheahan, and Guentzal fill out a line and contribute to the sum.

    McDavid elevated Maroon.

    This year can Rattie, Aberg or Rieder contribute to the sum?

    Guentzal is still only 23 and he’s already found lightening in a bottle twice.

    I don’t think there’s a Guentzal there.

    Maybe if Rattie hired Adam Oates during the summer and found a new training regime.

    It would be a long shot because most see Rattie as a tweener.

  7. Soup Fascist says:

    Sunday- Blue Velvet

    Monday – Blue Collar

    Tuesday – Blue Bayou – looking forward to tomorrow’s phonetic feature article on McDavid playing against Giordano and Brodie.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    In addition to those listed in the opening, Berglund and Persson are both having nice offensive starts to the CHL. Berglund with a goal and assist in 2 games – can’t remember what Persson got in his 2nd game but he scored in his first game.

    Looking for Berglund to have a big season on the top pairing before coming over the NA next year.

    Persson, I’m mostly interested to see if he can show that last season wasn’t the outlier and, so far so good. Wow, he could be found money. I do worry about the numbers on his contract if he repeats.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Man, I like looking at that list of prospects. Should be a good conversation today but, alas, I’ll be on the car for the next 8 hours (well, I’ll make it 7). Enjoy!

  10. Ryan says:

    JustWatt:
    Don’t think a single poster is going to argue for seeing the much-teased LT “balance” photo this year. And with the McDavid/Draisaitl contracts on the books it’ll be years before the cap goes up enough to fit a balanced roster around those two giants among men, if ever. What can an unbalanced, top-heavy team do to give itself a chance to win it all?

    Yeah, the Reinhart trade was absolutely crippling. The Hall trade was almost as bad. Signing Looch…

    Shero traded Adam Henrique and Adam Larsson for Taylor Hall and Sami Vatanen. Yeah, good trades are out there.

    Good GM’s make smart trades and decisions. We have Chiarelli.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie63:
    My hope is that McDavid, like Sid, makes a player out of a line mate who knows how to play with a generational player.

    Sid has made Rust, Sheahan, and Guentzal fill out a line and contribute to the sum.

    McDavid elevated Maroon.

    This year can Rattie, Aberg or Rieder contribute to the sum?

    Yes, the key going forward is to graduate prospects who provide value contracts and outperform their cap hit. Our top 6 winger position needs to be filled by graduating prospects who can produce on their ELCs, maybe zoomed by 97 or 29 – Rattie is one (poor) example.

    Kailer should be one of those guys soon. Maybe Aberg. Potentionally Maksimov or McLeod in A few years.

  12. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide: Draft and develop.

    Will this regime see the fruits of their draft?

  13. godot10 says:

    JustWatt:
    Don’t think a single poster is going to argue for seeing the much-teased LT “balance” photo this year. And with the McDavid/Draisaitl contracts on the books it’ll be years before the cap goes up enough to fit a balanced roster around those two giants among men, if ever. What can an unbalanced, top-heavy team do to give itself a chance to win it all?

    The problem is not the McDavid/Draisaitl contracts. It is the Lucic/Russell/Kassian/Caggiula contracts.

  14. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: Draft and develop.

    +1.

    Outside of Lotterry picks, the average prospect takes 3 – 5 years to arrive at the NHL Level. Right now the Oilers should have their 2014 & 2015 drafts pushing to make an Impact.

    The problem? After Edm made their lottery pick each year, they didn’t pick again til around 100th (due to trades, etc).

    Thankfully PC did some decent late drafting in 2015. But either way we are missing 2 – 5 picks that should be part of the D & D convo right now.

  15. JustWatt says:

    Lowetide: Draft and develop.

    Hmm. Chia Pete has actually done a pretty good job of that. Maybe we will all sing the praises of this GM yet.

  16. godot10 says:

    Ryan: Guentzal is still only 23 and he’s already found lightening in a bottle twice.

    I don’t think there’s a Guentzal there.

    Maybe if Rattie hired Adam Oates during the summer and found a new training regime.

    It would be a long shot because most see Rattie as a tweener.

    Rattie’s problem is not offense. He is draft+7 and still can’t play a whit in his own zone.

  17. jtblack says:

    flyfish1168: Will this regime see the fruits of their draft?

    Who is on the roster from 2015 forward?

    McDavid, JP …… ??

  18. jp says:

    Ryan:

    Well, the argument has shifted to encapsulate the heavy usage of the Oilers top 3 scorers on the PK.

    Though the math at 4v5 is flawed (sample size, volatility), the combined total is a nine goal swing in the Oilers favour. That’s two wins in today’s NHL.

    Also Mclellan rode his top 3 scorers heavily on the PK to the end result of a 25th ranked PK.

    Haha, did you shift the argument? I’ve been talking specifically about McDavid.

    But yeah, Nuge and Draisaitl are two of the Oilers worst PKers, so when you lump McDavid in with them the collective results are bad.

    Could McDavid be a special case? Yeah, I still think it’s possible.

    Is playing skill players on the PK a bad idea per se? I still don’t think that’s certain.

    Have the Oilers suffered by giving all of McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge play significant PK minutes? Most probably, but it’s not on McDavid.

  19. Ryan says:

    “There’s nothing concrete here past three players, to round out a top six you need two ~20 year olds to hit and Lucic to bounce back.”

    Yeah, I enjoy reading Wilde’s system play analysis.

    So we’re 3 forwards short of icing a top two lines and one short of a top four blue line. The season hasn’t started.

  20. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Rattie’s problem is not offense.He is draft+7 and still can’t play a whit in his own zone.

    How do you know he can’t play defence? He’s only played 49 games in the NHL. Honest question. Not trolling.

  21. JustWatt says:

    godot10: The problem is not the McDavid/Draisaitl contracts.It is the Lucic/Russell/Kassian/Caggiula contracts.

    No argument here that those are poor contracts, none at all. I wasn’t suggesting that they are problem contracts and I hope I didn’t come off that way.

    I was just pondering on how to surround those contracts in such a way that the team can actually be balanced. Chicago and Pittsburg have both relied (successfully and unsuccessfully) on trading away guys who helped them win when they graduated to contracts that the team could no longer afford to pay. The Oilers have some excellent guys in their entry-level deals but the team is not yet in a position to contend. It would be a horrendous failure of management to reach the point of having to trade away Puljujarvi and/or Yamamoto and/or Bouchard without even having contended for the Cup. They could end up in the same cycle of training up players that have to be sent away in the prime of their careers like other top heavy teams but without the success that preceded it that Chicago and Pittsburg had. And the draft picks that are made in the next few years are unlikely to be of the same quality as a 4th and 10th overall as a prime-of-his-caareer McDavid-led team is unlikely to be that poor. Chiarelli really seems to be walking the edge of the knife here.

  22. flyfish1168 says:

    Soup Fascist:
    Sunday- Blue Velvet

    Monday– Blue Collar

    Tuesday – Blue Bayou – looking forward to tomorrow’s phonetic feature article on McDavid playing against Giordano and Brodie.

    This will happen again and again
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLCYvkmKNSw

  23. JimmyV1965 says:

    Ryan:
    “There’s nothing concrete here past three players, to round out a top six you need two ~20 year olds to hit and Lucic to bounce back.”

    Yeah, I enjoy reading Wilde’s system play analysis.

    So we’re 3 forwards short of icing a top two lines and one short of a top four blue line. The season hasn’t started.

    There are many teams in the same boat. Just look at the Bruins. I think you can argue they have only three top 6 forwards and three top 4 dmen. People are predicting them to be one of the best teams in the league. And they don’t have McDavid.

  24. Ryan says:

    JimmyV1965: There are many teams in the same boat. Just look at the Bruins. I think you can argue they have only three top 6 forwards and three top 4 dmen. People are predicting them to be one of the best teams in the league. And they don’t have McDavid.

    Yeah, a lot of teams don’t have that much scoring depth.

    IMO, I think the Oilers can make things work if they can acquire one more top four dman.

    I think that dman is Faulk. Most here disagree with me.

  25. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: How do you know he can’t play defence? He’s only played 49 games in the NHL. Honest question. Not trolling.

    “49 games” and “draft+7”, for a guy with NHL offensive talent. And well, one saw it at the end of last season. He is a pure offensive player.

  26. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965: There are many teams in the same boat. Just look at the Bruins. I think you can argue they have only three top 6 forwards and three top 4 dmen. People are predicting them to be one of the best teams in the league. And they don’t have McDavid.

    Good point. I commented before that we lament our unbalanced team, but I went through every roster on Capgeek, and there aren’t more than 2-3 that have balance. The Laughs have a super talented front end (too young to win in playoffs) and crickets behind the blueline. Etc etc.

    Boston is a good example. The good players they have are very good and vets. Rask on his game is great. So the lack of depth doesn’t hurt the reg season, it shows up in the playoffs like last year.

    Of course often the team that wins has a bunch of average players on heaters, so anything can happen with health.

  27. JimmyV1965 says:

    Ryan: Yeah, a lot of teams don’t have that much scoring depth.

    IMO, I think the Oilers can make things work if they can acquire one more top four dman.

    I think that dman is Faulk. Most here disagree with me.

    – [ ] I don’t have an issue with Faulk either, as long as the price is right. I’m not worried about the contract. Only two years remaining. Would rather have McKeown though. He would fit better into the long term plans.

  28. Wilde says:

    Thank you for the kind gestures, LT and others.

    I find the work I do here and on my blog extremely fulfilling, and I’m only able to do it because there’s so much depth to dissect in the discourse that occurs here and other hockey-fanatical places. (but mostly here.)

    It’s also very nice to see that people enjoy reading, and that the content then sparks further discussion, essentially refueling itself.

    I’m very glad I began posting here after reading for a very long time and I urge those on read-only mode, similar to the way I was, to join in if you do have the time.

  29. jtblack says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    “Good point. I commented before that we lament our unbalanced team, but I went through every roster on Capgeek, and there aren’t more than 2-3 that have balance. ”

    Who did you determine has Balance for the Top 6?

  30. jtblack says:

    Balanced rosters:

    NSH
    WPG
    T.B.
    WASH
    PITT
    ST.L
    SAN JOSE
    TOR
    ANA

    ?????

  31. JimmyV1965 says:

    Ryan: Yeah, a lot of teams don’t have that much scoring depth.

    IMO, I think the Oilers can make things work if they can acquire one more top four dman.

    I think that dman is Faulk. Most here disagree with me.

    To expand on the Faulk point, I think you can argue this is the perfect time to trade for the player. His trade value has never been lower and will likely increase substantially in the short term. Here you have an excellent offensive dmen who is bad at defence. Well right now he hasn’t been good at offence either. If a team trades for him and he rediscovers his offence, which is a really good bet to make, you can turn around and trade him for more than what you paid.

  32. Gerta Rauss says:

    JimmyV1965: To expand on the Faulk point, I think you can argue this is the perfect time to trade for the player. His trade value has never been lower and will likely increase substantially in the short term. Here you have an excellent offensive dmen who is bad at defence. Well right now he hasn’t been good at offence either. If a team trades for him and he rediscovers his offence, which is a really good bet to make, you can turn around and trade him for more than what you paid.

    I can picture OP pulling over just to reply to this comment

  33. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965: There are many teams in the same boat. Just look at the Bruins. I think you can argue they have only three top 6 forwards and three top 4 dmen. People are predicting them to be one of the best teams in the league. And they don’t have McDavid.

    Who’s who on this list?

    They had nearly nine 15 goal men last year.

    Eight 40+ point players.

    For them to only have 3 top six forwards, one would have to consider none of the following players top six forwards:

    David Krecji – 64 GP – 17G – 27A – 44P / / 0.69 PPG

    Jake DeBrusk – 70GP – 16G – 27A – 43P / / 0.61 PPG

    Danton Heinen – 77GP – 17G – 31P – 48P / / 0.623 PPG

    By DailyFaceOff.com’s line combination, which uses Corsica Player Ratings (which are quite good and accurate for forwards) the Bruins have:

    Marchand – Bergeron – Krejci -> #1 top line in the NHL

    Debrusk – Krejci – Backes -> #17 2nd line in the NHL

    Donato – Forsbacka-Karlsson – Heinen -> #13 3rd line in the NHL

    That’s a stacked top nine, especially when you consider that their 2nd line (#33 LW, #49 C) gets much better if you replace Backes (#107 RW) with Danton Heinen (#64 RW) or Anders Bjork (#61 RW).

    Overall, they’ve got:

    #1, #33, #69 LW’s in the league

    #3, #49, #90 C’s in the league

    #4, #61, #64 RW’s in the league

    There’s almost no one playing above their level of ability, along with the best trio in the league.

    That’s skilled depth. They’re very good, and have four top-9 level forwards on ELC’s that are very good for their age., and two top four defenseman on ELC’s that are the same.

    Boston is one of my favouritely-constructed teams, so I’m a bit biased, but yeah they’re money.

    (I’d like them better if they kept Czarnik and added someone like Benoit Pouliot and ran a scoring fourth line though)

  34. tileguy says:

    godot10: “49 games” and “draft+7”, for a guy with NHL offensive talent.And well, one saw it at the end of last season.He is a pure offensive player.

    God knowes we need a couple of those on the wings.

  35. Bag of Pucks says:

    I’m reading a fun book on hockey’s Top 100 Records this weekend and it’s got me thinking of which team accomplishments were both the best and worst for the Oilers. With the best, I’m thinking of the team record most likely to stand the test of time. Conversely, the worst represents the biggest missed opportunity in terms of historical legacy.

    Best. Most goals by a team in one season: 446 – 83/84
    Honorable mention: 4 players in that historic season topped the 100 pt. mark (Gretz, Mess, Kurri, Coffey) and a 5th (Anderson) missed it by a point

    Worst: Steve Smith own goal simultaneously costs the team a shot at Most Consecutive Cups (56-60 Les Canadiens) and most consecutive playoff series wins (80-84 Islanders).

    What say you Oiler fans? What records signified the best of times and worst of times for this amazing team?

  36. jtblack says:

    Wilde: Who’s who on this list?

    They had nearly nine 15 goal men last year.

    Eight 40+ point players.

    For them to only have 3 top six forwards, one would have to consider none of the following players top six forwards:

    David Krecji – 64 GP – 17G – 27A – 44P / / 0.69 PPG

    Jake DeBrusk – 70GP – 16G – 27A – 43P / / 0.61 PPG

    Danton Heinen – 77GP – 17G – 31P – 48P / / 0.623 PPG

    By DailyFaceOff.com’s line combination, which uses Corsica Player Ratings (which are quite good and accurate for forwards) the Bruins have:

    Marchand – Bergeron – Krejci -> #1 top line in the NHL

    Debrusk – Krejci – Backes -> #17 2nd line in the NHL

    Donato – Forsbacka-Karlsson – Heinen -> #13 3rd line in the NHL

    That’s a stacked top nine, especially when you consider that their 2nd line (#33 LW, #49 C) gets much better if you replace Backes (#107 RW) with Danton Heinen (#64 RW) or Anders Bjork (#61 RW).

    Overall, they’ve got:

    #1, #33, #69 LW’s in the league

    #3, #49, #90 C’s in the league

    #4, #61, #64 RW’s in the league

    There’s almost no one playing above their level of ability, along with the best trio in the league.

    That’s skilled depth. They’re very good, and have four top-9 level forwards on ELC’s that are very good for their age., and two top four defenseman on ELC’s that are the same.

    Boston is one of my favouritely-constructed teams, so I’m a bit biased, but yeah they’re money.

    (I’d like them better if they kept Czarnik and added someone like Benoit Pouliot and ran a scoring fourth line though)

    +1

  37. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I’m reading a fun book on hockey’s Top 100 Records this weekend and it’s got me thinking of which team accomplishments were both the best and worst for the Oilers. With the best, I’m thinking of the team record most likely to stand the test of time. Conversely, the worst represents the biggest missed opportunity in terms of historical legacy.

    Best. Most goals by a team in one season: 446 – 83/84
    Honorable mention: 4 players in that historic season topped the 100 pt. mark (Gretz, Mess, Kurri, Coffey) and a 5th (Anderson) missed it by a point

    Worst: Steve Smith own goal simultaneously costs the team a shot at Most Consecutive Cups (56-60 Les Canadiens) and most consecutive playoff series wins (80-84 Islanders).

    What say you Oiler fans? What records signified the best of times and worst of times for this amazing team?

    I’m thinking 36 shorthanded goals in ’83-84 is a safe record for a long time.

    Btw, Gretzky posted boxcars of 74 GP, 12-11-23 on the PK that year. I wonder what his GF On /60 was?

    Don’t recall anyone complaining about using stars on That unit.

  38. Ryan says:

    Gerta Rauss: I can picture OP pulling over just to reply to this comment

    No, but it might interrupt his HIIT sprint workout at the park.

  39. innercitysmytty says:

    jtblack,

    Would agree with all of those except the Leafs. Bottom end of the F group and on D there are definitely some holes.

  40. SwedishPoster says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    In addition to those listed in the opening, Berglund and Persson are both having nice offensive starts to the CHL. Berglund with a goal and assist in 2 games – can’t remember what Persson got in his 2nd game but he scored in his first game.

    Looking for Berglund to have a big season on the top pairing before coming over the NA next year.

    Persson, I’m mostly interested to see if he can show that last season wasn’t the outlier and, so far so good.Wow, he could be found money.I do worry about the numbers on his contract if he repeats.

    Two goals and an assist in two games for Berglund and one goal and two assists for Persson, also in two. If they can keep that pace for the whole year we’re cooking with napalm…

    Have to remember that the CHL and the SHL are two wildly different animals though, we’ll get a better grasp on their capabilities once the much tougher SHL season kicks off. But so far so good.

  41. jtblack says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Worst of times for me was Dallas Eakins year. Team was a mess. I would shut games ofd after 1 period or 2 periods as it was usually 4-1 or 5-0 for the opposing team. I think Arcobello was the 2C (after Leon wwnt back to junior). Tough to watch that sh*t!

  42. jtblack says:

    Best of times:

    2006 Playoff run. Completely unexpected and Magical!

    The Pisani Goal in OT game 5? Legend.
    Game 6 dismantling of Carolina. From start to finish Edm dominated and that crowd was amped up!!

  43. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Soup Fascist:
    Sunday- Blue Velvet

    Monday– Blue Collar

    Tuesday – Blue Bayou – looking forward to tomorrow’s phonetic feature article on McDavid playing against Giordano and Brodie.

    Wednesday – Blue Christmas – how injuries have hampered development over the years

    Thursday – Blue Moon – Everyone shares exactly what McDavid means to them

    Friday – Blue Heaven – How probable is it that EDM makes the playoffs?

  44. Lowetide says:

    Saturday: Blues Magoos, the Oilers without the puck.

  45. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Balanced rosters:

    NSH
    WPG
    T.B.
    WASH
    PITT
    ST.L
    SAN JOSE
    TOR
    ANA

    ?????

    WPG is missing 2LD
    STL needs a much better 1LD (Pietrangelo’s WOWY are crazy with Boumeester over the last couple years)
    TOR slotting Zatisev at 2RD is a big problem for them.
    ANA needs Montour to be a top 4 Dman today, I don’t think he’s there yet defensively

    /nit-picking

    🙂

  46. Bag of Pucks says:

    Here’s my quick take for the biggest NHL records set on Northlands Coliseum ice.

    1. The Great One breaks Howe’s all time points record as a King vs the hometown Oil
    2. 50 in 39. Nuff said.
    3. Coffey sets the record for most points by a defenseman in one playoff year (1985 – 37 points)
    4. Kurri ties the record for most goals in one playoff year (1985 – 19 Goals)
    5. Coffey ties Bladon for most points by a defenseman in a single game (8).

    How about some of the biggest missed opportunities for individual records by the Oiler players?

    These are my top 5:

    1. Gretzky scoring 100 goals. He absolutely could’ve done this and it would’ve been epic.
    2. Coffey misses Orr’s record for most points by a defenseman in a single season by one point! Argh!
    3. The strike pushes the Moose into retirement, falling short of Howe’s record for most games played by 11 games. How ironic is it that number is 11?
    4. Connor and Gretz both fail to win the Calder.
    5. The NHL fails to keep records on most career fights won. With Semenko, Brown, McSorley and Laraque in their hall of heavyweights, the Oilers would have had many contenders for this record.

  47. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ryan:
    Last year on the PK collectively, Draisatl, McDavid, and Nuge were out performed by 1.67 goals per hour by JJ, Strome, and Kassian. If you multiply that per sixty rate by 3.5 hours of ice time, you have lost 5.85 goals on the season.

    At evens, the opposite was true in which predictably an average of +0.92 goals per hour. So there you scrounge another 3.22 goals.

    In total and it’s not really completely fair because of the volatility in the 4v5 numbers, you could have nine goals on the season. That’s enough for two wins.

    So yeah, let’s play the heck out of Nuge, McDavid, and Draisatl on the PK so that Kassian, Strome, and JJ can get more time playing at evens.

    Well, the argument has shifted to encapsulate the heavy usage of the Oilers top 3 scorers on the PK.

    Though the math at 4v5 is flawed (sample size, volatility), the combined total is a nine goal swing in the Oilers favour. That’s two wins in today’s NHL.

    I’ll agree with the math being flawed. If I’m reading you right, you are treating each player’s individual result as a team result and adding them together. However, if McDavid, Nuge & Draisaitl are on the ice for an even-strength goal, that is still just 1 goal, not 3.

    Or am I missing something in your methodology?

  48. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: STL needs a much better 1LD (Pietrangelo’s WOWY are crazy with Boumeester over the last couple years)

    St. Louis should just run this imo

    Dunn – Pietrangelo

    Edmundson – Parayko

    Bouwmeester – Schmaltz

  49. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bag of Pucks: 1. Gretzky scoring 100 goals. He absolutely could’ve done this and it would’ve been epic.

    Gretzky did score 100 goals in 1983-84. 87 in the regular season and 13 in the playoffs. Sometimes I wish hockey counted like soccer and included all (meaningful) games in a player’s cumulative total.

    By this way of counting, #99 cracked 1000 goals in his NHL career (894 + 122 = 1016).

    Epic milestones, both.

  50. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I’m thinking 36 shorthanded goals in ’83-84 is a safe record for a long time.

    Btw, Gretzky posted boxcars of 74 GP, 12-11-23 on the PK that year. I wnder what his GF On /60 was?

    Don’t recall anyone complaining about using stars on That unit.

    I strongly considered that shortie record. That is absolutely astounding. Do you know if they set that mark on home ice, Bruce? I can’t seem to locate individual game box scores and I know they closed the season on the road.

    Btw, incredible to think that the penalized player didn’t come out of the box after a score until 1956! That has to be considered when assessing ALL pre 56 scoring records.

  51. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    “Good point. I commented before that we lament our unbalanced team, but I went through every roster on Capgeek, and there aren’t more than 2-3 that have balance. ”

    Who did you determine has Balance for the Top 6?

    St Louis, Boston, maybe Calgary, Hawks, Jackets, there are others.

    My point was more about teams having depth through the whole lineup including role players that get the job done. There aren’t many.

    I also feel having elite players makes a difference the deeper teams go, and some deepish teams like Blues and Canes are pretty bland IMO

  52. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde: Who’s who on this list?

    They had nearly nine 15 goal men last year.

    Eight 40+ point players.

    For them to only have 3 top six forwards, one would have to consider none of the following players top six forwards:

    David Krecji – 64 GP – 17G – 27A – 44P / / 0.69 PPG

    Jake DeBrusk – 70GP – 16G – 27A – 43P / / 0.61 PPG

    Danton Heinen – 77GP – 17G – 31P – 48P / / 0.623 PPG

    By DailyFaceOff.com’s line combination, which uses Corsica Player Ratings (which are quite good and accurate for forwards) the Bruins have:

    Marchand – Bergeron – Krejci -> #1 top line in the NHL

    Debrusk – Krejci – Backes -> #17 2nd line in the NHL

    Donato – Forsbacka-Karlsson – Heinen -> #13 3rd line in the NHL

    That’s a stacked top nine, especially when you consider that their 2nd line (#33 LW, #49 C) gets much better if you replace Backes (#107 RW) with Danton Heinen (#64 RW) or Anders Bjork (#61 RW).

    Overall, they’ve got:

    #1, #33, #69 LW’s in the league

    #3, #49, #90 C’s in the league

    #4, #61, #64 RW’s in the league

    There’s almost no one playing above their level of ability, along with the best trio in the league.

    That’s skilled depth. They’re very good, and have four top-9 level forwards on ELC’s that are very good for their age., and two top four defenseman on ELC’s that are the same.

    Boston is one of my favouritely-constructed teams, so I’m a bit biased, but yeah they’re money.

    (I’d like them better if they kept Czarnik and added someone like Benoit Pouliot and ran a scoring fourth line though)

    First off, I’m not arguing the Bruins are playoff bubble team. But they are a highly touted team with some serious question marks. I no way do I consider this a stacked team. Here’s what I think of the Bruins forwards:

    Top 6 Forward Locks
    Bergeron
    Marchand
    Pasternak

    Top 6 Forward Question Marks
    Krejci (is he a top 60 C? Probably but it’s close and trending in the wrong direction. Lots and lots of miles there)

    Debrusk (He’s not established as a top 6 forward and his scoring at every level has been inconsistent. I know I’m not touching him in my draft because I’m expecting a sophomore slump)

    Heinen (see Debrusk but even more inconsistent)

    While I think the Bruins captured lightning in a bottle last year, I think they make the playoffs. However, it’s reasonable to suggest there are question marks. Is Debrusk a better bet to have a good season than JP? Probably yes, but I certainly won’t be shocked if they have similar numbers.

  53. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bag of Pucks: I strongly considered that shortie record. That is absolutely astounding. Do you know if they set that mark on home ice, Bruce? I can’t seem to locate individual game box scores and I know they closed the season on the road.

    Btw, incredible to think that the penalized player didn’t come out of the box after a score until 1956! That has to be considered when assessing ALL pre 56 scoring records.

    That was the Montreal Canadiens Rule, an actual change to manpower situations that predated by three decades the Edmonton Oilers Rule that greatly diminished 4v4 in 1985.

    The event that tilted the balance was Jean Beliveau scoring a hat trick in 44 seconds on the same 5v3 powerplay on Nov 5, 1955. Here’s the game summary for those interested in such arcana.

    In my first year of blogging I did a deep dive into the league’s history of shifting sands w.r.t. manpower situations, which stands up today other than the move to 3v3 overtime is obviously omitted.

  54. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Further to your other question, the Oilers scored their 35th & 36th shorties of the season in a 9-2 pounding of the Flames in the Saddledome after they had wrapped up their home sked. Both goals scored by Mark Messier, another grunt that Sather overused on the penalty kill. 🙂

  55. Bag of Pucks says:

    Finally, on the NHL records topic. Here’s some really cool and possibly underrated records.

    Mr. Hockey finishes in the Top 5 in regular season scoring for 20 straight seasons (49-69)! No wonder Gretz considered Howe the greatest of all time. An absolutely stunning accomplishment.

    Bobby Orr’s career +/- differential of .91. In short, you were starting a goal down with #4 on the ice.

    Luckiest man in hockey. Henri ‘The Pocket Rocket’ Richard. 11 Stanley Cup rings.

    Largest margin of victory in goals scored race (Brett Hull, 35 – 90/91). How many fans would automatically assume that Gretzky owns this record? I know I did.

    Longest consecutive games point streak in playoffs: Bryan Trottier – 27 games (80-82). Another it’s easy to assume that Wayne would’ve held.

    Most consecutive improved seasons by a Head Coach: 6! – Al Arbour / Isles (73-79)

    Most consecutive unanswered goals – Rangers (25 goals – 1973).

    Most goals by a regular season PIM leader: Tiger Williams – 35Gs / 343 Pims (80-81)

  56. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce McCurdy: That was the Montreal Canadiens Rule, an actual change to manpower situations that predated by three decades the Edmonton Oilers Rule that greatly diminished 4v4 in 1985.

    The event that tilted the balance was Jean Beliveau scoring a hat trick in 44 seconds on the same 5v3 powerplay on Nov 5, 1955.Here’s the game summary for those interested in such arcana.

    In my first year of blogging I did a deep dive into the league’s history of shifting sands w.r.t. manpower situations, which stands up today other than the move to 3v3 overtime is obviously omitted.

    Thanks Bruce, that deep dive article is getting another reader this afternoon : )

  57. godot10 says:

    jtblack:
    Balanced rosters:

    NSH
    WPG
    T.B.
    WASH
    PITT
    ST.L
    SAN JOSE
    TOR
    ANA

    ?????

    Toronto is NOT balanced. They have no defence. Pittsburgh has an ordinary defense at best.

  58. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Further to your other question, the Oilers scored their 35th & 36th shorties of the season in a 9-2 pounding of the Flames in the Saddledome after they had wrapped up their home sked. Both goals scored by Mark Messier, another grunt that Sather overused on the penalty kill.

    I love the idea of Connor on the PK until he breaks his foot of course, when it instantly becomes the worst idea ever! ; )

  59. godot10 says:

    tileguy: God knowes we need a couple of those on the wings.

    They don’t help if they cannot play a threshold NHL game in their own end or defensively.

  60. godot10 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I’m thinking 36 shorthanded goals in ’83-84 is a safe record for a long time.

    Btw, Gretzky posted boxcars of 74 GP, 12-11-23 on the PK that year. I wonder what his GF On /60 was?

    Don’t recall anyone complaining about using stars on That unit.

    Didn’t have automatic own zone faceoffs on the PK back then.

  61. Bag of Pucks says:

    Here’s an interesting NHL record that McDavid could set though I’m not sure I’d want him to.

    Highest % of a team’s goals in one season: Pavel Bure – FLA 29.5% (00-01)

    That record means you’re a dominant scorer, but it also means you’re a one man gang on a team sorely lacking sniper depth,

  62. Ryan says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I’ll agree with the math being flawed. If I’m reading you right, you are treating each player’s individual result as a team result and adding them together. However, if McDavid, Nuge & Draisaitl are on the ice for an even-strength goal, that is still just 1 goal, not 3.

    Or am I missing something in your methodology?

    At least we agree on something. I’ll take it.

    I used the goals for / against on per sixty for each player. There are two groups each comprised of three players. For each group, I added up the (gf – gaon /60) by game state and divided it by 3. This gives us an average value of gf-ga on /60 to compare the top 3 scorers vs 3 representative bottom six players in each game state.

    Since McDavid, Nuge, and Draisatl combine for 4.35 hrs of pk time per season, it should be multiplied by this number. That’s where I made an error in using 3.5. I did the calculations at five am without coffee and probably used Woodguy’s phone.

    On that note, they are losing 7.2 goals per season on the pk and 4 goals at evens.

  63. Westchester Oil says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Sorry for going a bit off the thread here, but I have to give you major kudos, Bruce. You had at least three brilliant posts yesterday: a brief history of fancy stats and which stats have been important over the years, pointing out how few powerplays that a McDavid led team got last year plus your comment on gender.

    On top of that, you have an amazing memory of hockey history. You are one of the best posters on this blog. Thank you for all your contributions.

  64. jp says:

    Ryan,

    Further to the PK stuff, McDavid appears to be a really exceptional PKer.

    From Corsica, over his career among all NHL forwards who’ve played >150 min 4×5 (191 in total, about 6 per team, which seems like the number we’re looking for)

    McDavid is 2nd in GF/60 on, 29th in G+/- (per 60), and 4th in xG+/-

    Other Oilers in G+/- (per 60) are Hendricks (93rd including time in WPG), Pouliot (97th including time in BUF), Lander (98th), Kassian (118th), Letestu (137th), Nuge (186th of 191 players!).

    So McDavid is effectively the only Oiler above league average, while Nuge is one of the very worst. McDavid is a full 1.5 goals per 60 better than any other Oiler over these 3 seasons (and a full 4 goals better than Nuge). And yes, Khaira was even better than McDavid in 102 min last season, so he’s either a PK prodigy or he isn’t.

    But, grouping McDavid with Nuge makes McDavid look bad when he’s actually one of the very best.

    You’re welcome to still argue that the 1.5 G/60 advantage McDavid brings to the PK is less than what he brings 5×5 vs the other options. And I wholeheartedly agree that Nuge and Draisaitl are not helping the PK. But I feel like there’s a strong argument that McDavid is an exceptional penalty killer, and that the value he brings 4×5 is at least in the same range as his value 5×5.

  65. Hooperdan says:

    Hey Lt,

    Just curious if you will be doing the re series before the season starts? If so, will it be here or at the athletic?

  66. Lowetide says:

    Hooperdan:
    Hey Lt,

    Just curious if you will be doing the re series before the season starts? If so, will it be here or at the athletic?

    We’ll be writing stuff at The Athletic leading up to the season, so the RE series won’t be appearing here. I am slowly rolling out my numbers and will have a big article that includes everything before the start of the season. So, still RE, just condensed.

  67. Ryan says:

    jp,

    Yes, I agree that McDavid is very good on the PK. I also agree that Nuge is not very good on the PK. Last year, Nuge was terrible,

    If Brodziak has any wheels left, he could be helpful on the PK

    As for the Oilers last season, they played their top three goal scores for over 3.5 minutes per game on the PK. The only team close to that was Boston.

    Boston had the third best PK in the league. The Oilers were 25th.

    I can say that if I were an NHL coach I wouldn’t be very proud of the results of running my top three scorers that hard on the PK for one of the worst PK’s in the league.

    So yeah, we’ll agree on reducing Nuge and Draisatl’s minutes on the PK and call it a wash on McDavid until he blocks a shot.

    If you have results like Boston, then fine.

  68. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce, fascinating stuff on that deep dive article. That 66-67 substitutions on coincidental majors change is a travesty. Talk about reducing the entertainment value of the game! Seems like a clear effort to help out the incoming weaker teams of expansion.

    On the infamous Oiler/Fletcher rule, I think an argument could be made that rule change doesn’t get ratified if another rule change I absolutely loathe (The Instigator) had existed then.

    Part of Sather’s genius was deploying professional pests like Linseman, McLelland, Hunter and Messier to goad the opposition into coincidental minors setting the table for his generational talent to dominate 4v4.

    Hockey culture at the time was you simply didn’t back down from the chippy stuff so the Oilers really put you in a bind with that tactic. If you didn’t respond to the pests, you were yellow. If you did, you took coincidental minors and then watched from the sin bin while the Oil PP lit you up.

    If the Instigator rule had existed then, you could theoretically turn the other cheek in the hopes of drawing the pests into a fighting major. The ‘code’ being what it was, I’m not sure how many players would’ve embraced that mindset. But it’s undeniable that with that rule, the league lessened the potential for additional goal scoring while stifling the aggression tactics in one fell swoop. That debatably may have leveled the playing field, but it certainly didn’t improve the entertainment value of the product.

  69. hunter1909 says:

    Just a quick question to the mob:

    Post October 17, will it be okay for Oilers fans to spliff up at Rogers Place?

  70. Bag of Pucks says:

    hunter1909:
    Just a quick question to the mob:

    Post October 17, will it be okay for Oilers fans to spliff up at Rogers Place?

    Short answer? No.

    Cannabis being legal doesn’t change the restrictions on smoking in a public place.

    There will undoubtedly be more red eyes in the stands however. Probably good for concession sales on munchies.

  71. Bag of Pucks says:

    It ‘s funny the misconceptions people have about pot being legal. We were talking about workplace safety issues and the designated smoking areas outside our office building came up. One of my colleagues seriously asked if people will be able to chief it in those areas during office hours? lol

    We’ve legalized cannabis. We haven’t entered a time machine back to Mad Men era martini bars in the workplace.

    There’s going to be a lot of confusion on this because where you can smoke a cigarette won’t automatically equate to where you can smoke a joint, for the same reason that where you can smoke a cigarette doesn’t automatically equate to where you can have an open drink.

  72. leadfarmer says:

    JimmyV1965: First off, I’m not arguing the Bruins are playoff bubble team. But they are a highly touted team with some serious question marks. I no way do I consider this a stacked team. Here’s what I think of the Bruins forwards:

    Top 6 Forward Locks
    Bergeron
    Marchand
    Pasternak

    Top 6 Forward Question Marks
    Krejci (is he a top 60 C? Probably but it’s close and trending in the wrong direction. Lots and lots of miles there)

    Debrusk (He’s not established as a top 6 forward and his scoring at every level has been inconsistent. I know I’m not touching him in my draft because I’m expecting a sophomore slump)

    Heinen (see Debrusk but even more inconsistent)

    While I think the Bruins captured lightning in a bottle last year, I think they make the playoffs. However, it’s reasonable to suggest there are question marks. Is Debrusk a better bet to have a good season than JP? Probably yes, but I certainly won’t be shocked if they have similar numbers.

    They have one of the best d corp in their conference. They have one of the best top lines in the league. Between Donato Heinen and Debrusk they have a ton of young talent that can round out the roster.
    But that defense is key. A lot of their competition has sub par d corp.

  73. pts2pndr says:

    Ryan:
    “There’s nothing concrete here past three players, to round out a top six you need two ~20 year olds to hit and Lucic to bounce back.”

    Yeah, I enjoy reading Wilde’s system play analysis.

    So we’re 3 forwards short of icing a top two lines and one short of a top four blue line. The season hasn’t started.

    It is very easy to look at the team in a negative way! Pessimists are rarely dissapointed! There is maybe one or two teams that can match the Oilers strength at center even when they are using one of their top three centers as a winger and they are all extremely young! The team has three bonafide top four D with another injured and an A plus prospect on the way. The wings need some work but I believe the talent is there it just needs a little more time. It is my opinion that it is time to move forward. As a fan base we have developed an inferiority complex and that has to change! We are far closer to a real good team than we dare to believe!

  74. digger50 says:

    Lowetide: Draft and develop.

    The question was what can this team do to achieve balance and the answer draft and develop. Which appears to be the way forward.

    Yet if we review how we got here the issue in my eye was only partly draft and develop. The larger issue was poor management decisions. Poor trades, poor talent assessment, poor contract negotiations. (I count not having the picks to draft new players under poor trades)

    Although it presently looks like draft and develop is becoming a strength, the Oilers are still led by a GM who has a track record of being poor at those elements that got us here. Similar with head coach, he does not have a good record of developing and working with a young team and young talent.

    Despite better draft and develop as the obvious way forward to achieve balance, going forward with the same men with the same weaknesses, history is likely to repeat.

    Although it seems most are quiet on the GM / coach front this summer with a “wait and see” approach, are there any posters who have confidence either man will be a long term success story with the Oilers?

    Is this too strong a statement?

  75. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Where do you put Florida at in terms of balance?
    To me they look like a dark horse in that division.

  76. Lowetide says:

    digger50: The question was what can this team do to achieve balance and the answer draft and develop. Which appears to be the way forward.

    Yet if we review how we got here the issue in my eye was only partly draft and develop. The larger issue was poor management decisions. Poor trades, poor talent assessment, poor contract negotiations. (I count not having the picks to draft new players under poor trades)

    Although it presently looks like draft and develop is becoming a strength, the Oilers are still led by a GM who has a track record of being poor at those elements that got us here. Similar with head coach, he does not have a good record of developing and working with a young team and young talent.

    Despite better draft and develop as the obvious way forward to achieve balance,going forward with the same men with the same weaknesses, history is likely to repeat.

    Although it seems most are quiet on the GM / coach front this summer with a “wait and see” approach, are there any posters who have confidence either man will be a long term success story with the Oilers?

    Is this too strong a statement?

    My honest answer: If they didn’t fire Peter Chiarelli this summer, it’s unlikely to happen anytime soon.

  77. leadfarmer says:

    One very interesting thing about Kris Russell is that he’s quite terrible at preventing zone entries at 16% percentile, but he’s also terrible at getting the puck out of the zone at 26th percentile. So In defensemen lingo he’s the equivalent of a warm body laying on the goal line.
    Gryba was actually in the high 90s for preventing entries but single percentile at getting puck out

  78. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer: They have one of the best d corp in their conference.They have one of the best top lines in the league. Between Donato Heinen and Debrusk they have a ton of young talent that can round out the roster.
    But that defense is key.A lot of their competition has sub par d corp.

    This I can agree with. MacAvoy is a beast and he’s only getting better. Chara is going to fall off a cliff. Is it this year? Next year? But they do have some really nice young pieces at defence. My initial remark was that even highly touted teams have some question marks. And the Bruins have plenty of them. I think they make the playoffs, but I can also see them dropping off last year’s pace.

  79. hunter1909 says:

    Does anyone know about the 2nd round pick McCloud or whatever he’s called? Sounds like a really good prospect.

    As in the type who plays 500-1000 games for a winning team over the course of his career.

  80. JimmyV1965 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Where do you put Florida at in terms of balance?
    To me they look like a dark horse in that division.

    I think Florida is similar to Winnipeg last year. You look at their roster and wonder why the hell they didn’t make the playoffs. I suspect that changes real quick. Not sure they have as many weapons as the Jets, but that looks like a real good team.

  81. hunter1909 says:

    Bandwagon Capitals fan here.

    That way I can pretend I support a winning team.

  82. hunter1909 says:

    Having Connor McDavid is going to eventually pay off for us long suffering fans.

  83. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    One very interesting thing about Kris Russell is that he’s quite terrible at preventing zone entries at 16% percentile, but he’s also terrible at getting the puck out of the zone at 26th percentile.So In defensemen lingo he’s the equivalent of a warm body laying on the goal line.
    Gryba was actually in the high 90s for preventing entries but single percentile at getting puck out

    Where are you pulling these stats?
    Link?

    I know it’s from the Corey S zone entry project….

    That bonus on the 4rth year of Russell’s contract is a real killer on the buyout calculator.

  84. hunter1909 says:

    Speaking of Lucic…

    I’m the GM and I sit Lucic down and offer him even more responsibility on the team…provided he earns it.

    Then I tell him the stark news: Either he starts playing like eh means it or he’s getting 4th line minutes to mentor the rookies.

    ps: Did I tell everyone my 4th line is for rookies? 3-4 minutes for the 4th line every period. 2-3 minutes if the coach says so. They come out and skate around like demons. Scoring is gravy.

  85. digger50 says:

    Lowetide: My honest answer: If they didn’t fire Peter Chiarelli this summer, it’s unlikely to happen anytime soon.

    Yes, and as discussed here previously, keeping him (may) be due to the fact that had considerable help achieving some of those less than competent moves in the past. (I think he managed those contract overpays and NMC all on his own though.)

    This season I think the boys do well. Well enough that Peter certainly gets more time to make a difference. Or more time to trade our drafted and developed players, but let’s not go there.

    As we are in pre-season positive mode, Let’s hope he has “his” team in place now, they are hitting their stride, and we see far more positive moves than negative moves.

  86. Lowetide says:

    digger50: Yes, and as discussed here previously, keeping him (may) be due to the fact that had considerable help achieving some of those less than competent moves in the past. (I think he managed those contract overpays and NMC all on his own though.)

    This season I think the boys do well. Well enough that Peter certainly gets more time to make a difference. Or more time to trade our drafted and developed players, but let’s not go there.

    As we are in pre-season positive mode, Let’s hope he has “his” team in place now, they are hitting their stride, and we see far more positive moves than negative moves.

    Yeah, I am of the opinion that there may be forces that sent PC in one direction or the other but it’s on his watch and part of his record.

  87. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    Being ancient, I had seasons tickets during the WHA and through the glory years. In the coleseum for all the cups won here.

    None of the cups was as exciting as beating the Canadiens when the Oilers were an upstart bunch of kids while Montreal was favoured to win the cup.

    Moog stood on his head and Gretzky somehow crawled out of Lafleur’s hip pocket.

    I couldn’t even lift my arms to clap by the end of that game. It’s all about exceeding expectations for the biggest thrills. They were expected to win cups but not too not win that series.

  88. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: Didn’t have automatic own zone faceoffs on the PK back then.

    Well that changes Everything!

  89. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Westchester Oil:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Sorry for going a bit off the thread here, but I have to give you major kudos, Bruce. You had at least three brilliant posts yesterday: a brief history of fancy stats and which stats have been important over the years, pointing out how few powerplays that a McDavid led team got last year plus your comment on gender.

    On top of that, you have an amazing memory of hockey history. You are one of the best posters on this blog. Thank you for all your contributions.

    Thank you, Westchester Oil! Much appreciated.

  90. Lowetide says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan:
    Being ancient, I had seasons tickets during the WHA and through the glory years. In the coleseum for all the cups won here.

    None of the cups was as exciting as beating the Canadiens when the Oilers were an upstart bunch of kids while Montreal was favoured to win the cup.

    Moog stood on his head and Gretzky somehow crawled out of Lafleur’s hip pocket.

    I couldn’t even lift my arms to clap by the end of that game.It’s all about exceeding expectations for the biggest thrills.They were expected to win cups but not too not win that series.

    I think that’s why (one reason anyway) we bonded with Moog so much. My Dad and I watched in wonder.

  91. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: I think that’s why (one reason anyway) we bonded with Moog so much. My Dad and I watched in wonder.

    That sweep of the Habs was beyond belief. The Oilers had routed the Habs 9-1 in late January but that seemed an outlier in a season Montreal won the Vezina (now Jennings) by 17 goals against. But Edmonton skated them into the ice.

    Imagine, though, Game 1 at the Forum. There are more Stanley Cup banners hanging from the rafters (22) than the age of seven core Oilers: Moog, Lowe (both 21), Gretzky, Kurri, Messier, Anderson (all 20), & Coffey (19) . You’d think they’d be intimidated, no? Not a chance.

    Peter Gzowski has a terrific account of this series in his classic book The Game Of Our Lives. If you haven’t read it, I couldn’t rec it more highly. Wonderful prose of a wonderful time.

  92. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Speaking of age, the Habs, Stanley Cups & weird records, here’s one for you: Henri Richard won all 11 of his Stanley Cups before his 10th birthday!

    The Pocket Rocket was born on 1936 Feb 29.

    #AmazingTrivia

  93. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce McCurdy: That sweep of the Habs was beyond belief. The Oilers had routed the Habs 9-1 in late January but that seemed an outlier in a season Montreal won the Vezina (now Jennings) by 17 goals against. But Edmonton skated them into the ice.

    Imagine, though, Game 1 at the Forum. There are more Stanley Cup banners hanging from the rafters (22) than the age of seven core Oilers: Moog, Lowe (both 21), Gretzky, Kurri, Messier, Anderson (all 20), & Coffey (19) . You’d think they’d be intimidated, no? Not a chance.

    Peter Gzowski has a terrific account of this series in his classic book The Game Of Our Lives. If you haven’t read it, I couldn’t rec it more highly. Wonderful prose of a wonderful time.

    Who could forget Messier vs Robinson?

    https://youtu.be/vYedHe37qwg

    The Oilers Young Turk against the man who beat up Dave ‘The Hammer’ Schultz and in the Forum no less. That’s how you show the league’s glory franchise that you’re not going to be intimidated.

  94. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Speaking of age, the Habs, Stanley Cups & weird records, here’s one for you: Henri Richard won all 11 of his Stanley Cups before his 10th birthday!

    The Pocket Rocket was born on 1936 Feb 29.

    #AmazingTrivia

    Whatever ‘born under a bad sign’ is, he was the opposite of that!

  95. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    Bag of Pucks: Who could forget Messier vs Robinson?

    https://youtu.be/vYedHe37qwg

    The Oilers Young Turk against the man who beat up Dave ‘The Hammer’ Schultz and in the Forum no less. That’s how you show the league’s glory franchise that you’re not going to be intimidated.

    I think Robinson was saying “Drop that stick and let’s see how tough you are.”.

    Messier never dropped his stick and I think he said “what do I look stupid.”. Might have been a tad of intimidation there.

  96. hunter1909 says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan: Messier never dropped his stick and I think he said “what do I look stupid.”. Might have been a tad of intimidation there.

    Reminds me of that game vs the USSR when they described Messier “He might have used a little elbow”.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan:
    Ryan: Yes, the margins when you actually run the numbers make the issue more trivial than I thought.
    However, in principle before I ran the numbers I started with the premise that if you take 1 minute of 5v5 time away from McDavid and give him 1 minute of PK time, you’re making a sucker’s bet.
    Basically, if you do that in principle, you’re betting that a Jujhar or Drake or a Latestu is going to perform better at 5v5 in that minute per game over the course of a season than McDavid. You’re going to lose that bet all down the roster.
    Conversely, you’re also betting that McDavid is going to PK better than a Jujhar, or Letestu. In this case, you’ll be right more than wrong, but you’ll still be wrong last year with Jujhar and the year prior with Drake and Anton Lander.
    Speaking of Lander, he scored 2.98 GF/60 on the PK two years ago.
    Last season, Mclellan ran his top 3 offensive players for over 3 and half minutes per game on the PK!
    Now at evens, a Draisatl, McDavid, or Nuge is always going to outperform a bottom sixer, but on the PK not necessarily.
    Last year on the PK collectively, Draisatl, McDavid, and Nuge were out performed by 1.67 goals per hour by JJ, Strome, and Kassian. If you multiply that per sixty rate by 3.5 hours of ice time, you have lost 5.85 goals on the season.
    At evens, the opposite was true in which predictably an average of +0.92 goals per hour. So there you scrounge another 3.22 goals.
    In total and it’s not really completely fair because of the volatility in the 4v5 numbers, you could have nine goals on the season. That’s enough for two wins.
    So yeah, let’s play the heck out of Nuge, McDavid, and Draisatl on the PK so that Kassian, Strome, and JJ can get more time playing at evens.

    Well, the argument has shifted to encapsulate the heavy usage of the Oilers top 3 scorers on the PK.

    Though the math at 4v5 is flawed (sample size, volatility), the combined total is a nine goal swing in the Oilers favour. That’s two wins in today’s NHL.

    Also Mclellan rode his top 3 scorers heavily on the PK to the end result of a 25th ranked PK.

    How hard did he ride them from February 1 through the end of the season? The period where the PK was number 1 in the NHL for a close to 2-month run.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: Guentzal is still only 23 and he’s already found lightening in a bottle twice.

    I don’t think there’s a Guentzal there.

    Maybe if Rattie hired Adam Oates during the summer and found a new training regime.

    It would be a long shot because most see Rattie as a tweener.

    Maybe we don’t have a Guentzal but you never know until one appears.

    For all we know, Tyler Benson or Cooper Marody or Ostaf Safin is our Guentzal.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss: I can picture OP pulling over just to reply to this comment

    Ha – You aren’t far off.

    Sure, if the offensive d-man (that hasn’t produced for a while except on the PP) finds his offence to a point that it off-sets (and passes) his really bad defence, then, yes, it would work out.

    The problem I have is the risk that he doesn’t find that offence and now we have another potentially untradeable contract and a further cap issue – we’d potentially need to buy it out.

    Its just too risky for me. The player has been trending the wrong way for a while now I believe.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I’m reading a fun book on hockey’s Top 100 Records this weekend and it’s got me thinking of which team accomplishments were both the best and worst for the Oilers. With the best, I’m thinking of the team record most likely to stand the test of time. Conversely, the worst represents the biggest missed opportunity in terms of historical legacy.

    Best. Most goals by a team in one season: 446 – 83/84
    Honorable mention: 4 players in that historic season topped the 100 pt. mark (Gretz, Mess, Kurri, Coffey) and a 5th (Anderson) missed it by a point

    Worst: Steve Smith own goal simultaneously costs the team a shot at Most Consecutive Cups (56-60 Les Canadiens) and most consecutive playoff series wins (80-84 Islanders).

    What say you Oiler fans? What records signified the best of times and worst of times for this amazing team?

    My favorite team stat is the fact that no team in the history of the NHL has ever scored 400 goals in a season – well, except the Oilers who did it 4 times.

    My favorite individual stat is the fact that Wayne Gretzky has more assists than any other player has points – and then he has more goals than any other player.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    innercitysmytty:
    jtblack,

    Would agree with all of those except the Leafs. Bottom end of the F group and on D there are definitely some holes.

    No HIIT today (or yesterday mind you) – I did crush a home back workout after I got to town and prepped for the week – even before I caught up on the blog and other Oilers social media. Gotta get er’ in!

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    Best of times:

    2006 Playoff run. Completely unexpected and Magical!

    The Pisani Goal in OT game 5?Legend.
    Game 6 dismantling of Carolina.From start to finish Edm dominated and that crowd was amped up!!

    That game 6 was out of this world – I was there and it was probably the most fun I’ve ever had at an Oilers game – the drive back to Calgary was with nothing but pure joy.

    The drive back two days later after game 7 was not as joyful (yes, I game back to Edmonton to watch game 7 with friends – I figured, if the Oilers were going to win the cup, I was not going to be 296km away).

  103. Louis Levasseur says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I have mixed views about stars on the PK. I think it should only be situationally. No need to have them out there when you don’t need a goal. It seems like in the game today, everybody is expected to be a shot blocker. Back in the glory days, only a few guys (like McTavish) were expected to block shots. I’m guessing guys like Gretzky and Messier were not expected to block shots and were probably told to get the hell out of the way. I’d hate to see McDavid break a hand or an ankle blocking a shot on the PK.

    I’d throw guys like McDavid and Draisaitl in the penalty box when killing bench minors or goalie penalties. It would have the other team playing conservative for the last 20 seconds of their PP. Or McDavid could capitalize coming out of the box.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: I love the idea of Connor on the PK until he breaks his foot of course, when it instantly becomes the worst idea ever! ; )

    I understand the concern about getting hurt on the PK, however, I’m not sure its really a concern. I think Oilers fans have PTSD from the Nuge injury on the PK – other than that, has there been a major injury suffered in recent memory? McDavid’s injury wasn’t on the PK, Sekera’s injury wasn’t on the PK, none of the required shoulder injuries were on the PK.

    Injuries can (and do) happen all over the ice in all situations – often the most harmless plays seem to have the most egregious effects (i.e. Getzlaf on Sekera).

    Play the game and don’t worry about injuries.

  105. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: –

    I understand the concern about getting hurt on the PK, however, I’m not sure its really a concern.I think Oilers fans have PTSD from the Nuge injury on the PK – other than that, has there been a major injury suffered in recent memory? McDavid’s injury wasn’t on the PK, Sekera’s injury wasn’t on the PK, none of the required shoulder injuries were on the PK.

    Injuries can (and do) happen all over the ice in all situations – often the most harmless plays seem to have the most egregious effects (i.e. Getzlaf on Sekera).

    Play the game and don’t worry about injuries.

    McDavid’s injury WAS on the PK. He went one on one against multiple flyers while the other forward went to the bench for a line change. It was a poor stiuational decision on his part. He should have just dumped it in.

    Same with Nugent-Hopkins, blocking shots with his hands.

    If they are going to PK, they they have to be coached not to make poor decisions while PKing.

  106. leadfarmer says:

    Ryan: Where are you pulling these stats?
    Link?

    I know it’s from the Corey S zone entry project….

    That bonus on the 4rth year of Russell’s contract is a real killer on the buyout calculator.

    Sorry for delay. I was enjoying Blings Montréal recommendations, thank you. Dieux du Ciel hibiscus beer is one of the better unique beers I’ve had lately.
    Public.tableau.com is where the numbers came from
    Tom Lesczczczczczzczxczzcxzyn from the athletic posts from this data set
    He had a comment about Barzal microstats today that has the direct link. It’s pretty interesting cause guys you expect to be terrible are terrible and guys that are Ricki defensemen have numbers that you see why they can’t find work

  107. leadfarmer says:

    Ryan: Where are you pulling these stats?
    Link?

    I know it’s from the Corey S zone entry project….

    That bonus on the 4rth year of Russell’s contract is a real killer on the buyout calculator.

    Like Larsson. For example I’ve complained about his passing which is worse than expected but his zone entry prevention is good which we all know how good he is at steering people into the corner and robbing them blind.
    Zoneentry allowed 85% percentile
    Zone exits 56% percentile

    Pretty much what the eyeball shows
    Klefbom for example
    47% entry prevention
    74% exits
    Don’t think anyone would argue that

  108. leadfarmer says:

    Nurse
    Exits 91%
    Entry 41%
    Now offensive zone entry is 85 percentile. So while he skates it out of the zone which is frowned upon these days. He actually skates it quite a ways

  109. leadfarmer says:

    what’s really striking about Sekera was his zone entry into the offensive zone last year was in the 7th percentile while a guy like Benning was in the 70th percentile. He was like tying an anchor to the forwards

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: McDavid’s injury WAS on the PK.He went one on one against multiple flyers while the other forward went to the bench for a line change.It was a poor stiuational decision on his part.He should have just dumped it in.

    Same with Nugent-Hopkins, blocking shots with his hands.

    If they are going to PK, they they have to be coached not to make poor decisions while PKing.

    OK, fine, it was on the PK but it had absolutely nothing to do with penalty killing – it was a play in the offensive zone that he would have made 4 on 5 or 5 on 5.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Nurse
    Exits 91%
    Entry 41%
    Now offensive zone entry is 85 percentile.So while he skates it out of the zone which is frowned upon these days. He actually skates it quite a ways

    Its clear from the eye test that Nurse has no issue gaining the zone with control (as the stats confirm).

    The issue is his decision making while in the offensive zone. He seemed to be taking a step forward with his o-zone decision making this past season but, from my eye, regressed in the 2nd half – this may have been a function of playing increased minutes and increased 1LW minutes as the season wore on.

  112. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: How hard did he ride them from February 1 through the end of the season?The period where the PK was number 1 in the NHL for a close to 2-month run.

    They cut Nuge’s toi/60 from 1:43 to 1:14

    They cut McDavid’s toi/60 from 1:05 to 35 s

    They increased Draisatl from 43 s to 1:21

    Strome went from 9s to 1:35 toi/60

    JJ gained 9 seconds. Drake lost 30s

  113. leadfarmer says:

    and since we were fawning over the anti Ricki defenseman in Mcavoy
    Zone prevention 76%
    Zone exits. And here is where the Ricki defensemen always fall apart.
    95%.
    That puck is getting the hell out of the zone and in a hurry.

  114. leadfarmer says:

    Sorry for cluttering but don’t know if you guys can access this data set so I will continue until you tell me to get lost.
    You think Garrison is done? Well.
    Offensive zone entry 3%
    Zone exits 19%
    Defensive zone entry 3%

    Yeah he’s done

  115. leadfarmer says:

    Now Jerabek is very interesting
    Zone exits 70%
    Zone entry defense 90%
    Now offense is in the red but hey if he can defend and turn the puck going the right way we really can’t complain

  116. leadfarmer says:

    Now Mcdavid is pretty much in the 99%-100th percentile on everything except for shots for so
    Well duh

  117. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: OK, fine, it was on the PK but it had absolutely nothing to do with penalty killing – it was a play in the offensive zone that he would have made 4 on 5 or 5 on 5.

    Going one on three on a PK is poor situational decision making.

  118. leadfarmer says:

    Can anyone name the player closest to Mcdavid in these data sets?

    Barzal!!

    Damn you Chia

  119. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy was commenting on Montour so here you go.
    Zone exits 85%
    Zone entry defensively 19%

    Yeah still needs work
    This with the HDCF and GF is really piecing more of the players together and explaining the Ricki D issues

  120. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    what’s really striking about Sekera was his zone entry into the offensive zone last year was in the 7th percentile while a guy like Benning was in the 70th percentile. He was like tying an anchor to the forwards

    Yes, last year Sekera was so far below replacement level. He returned at a time in which there was still a remote chance of turning the season around.

    I was actually surprised they kept playing Sekera last season, they could have replaced him with anyone and it would have been an improvement.

  121. leadfarmer says:

    Ryan,

    The numbers also show you probably should accept flyers top D as better in conference
    With Provorov
    O entry 83%
    Zone exits 97%
    Zone d 73%
    And Gost.
    88%, 97%, 69%
    And offense for is off the charts

    And Faulk as I’ve been saying is not as bad as you guys make him out to be. In the blue in every category for last 2years, as opposed to Sbisa who was suggested as a good replacement who is in the red in every category

  122. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    Sorry for cluttering but don’t know if you guys can access this data set so I will continue until you tell me to get lost.
    You think Garrison is done?Well.
    Offensive zone entry 3%
    Zone exits 19%
    Defensive zone entry 3%

    Yeah he’s done

    Keep posting.

    Here’s the link: https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.turtoro#!/vizhome/2-yearA3ZPlayerComps/ComparisonDashboard

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: They cut Nuge’s toi/60 from 1:43 to 1:14

    They cut McDavid’s toi/60 from 1:05 to 35 s

    They increased Draisatl from 43 s to 1:21

    Strome went from 9s to 1:35 toi/60

    JJ gained 9 seconds. Drake lost 30s

    Thank you.

    I’ve said a number of times that the huge uptick in the overall PK percentage coincided with Strome and JJ replacing Caggulia and Letestu along with McLellan taking over from Johnson.

    Its seems there wasn’t much of a JJ addition but the Strome addition is material.

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Going one on three on a PK is poor situational decision making.

    That has nothing to do with the point I am making which is that players don’t seem to get injured with increased frequency on the PK. McDavid’s “bad decision” in the offensive zone has nothing to do with fan’s/poster’s concerns that he’s going to get hurt blocking a shot.

  125. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    Ryan,

    The numbers also show you probably should accept flyers top D as better in conference
    With Provorov
    O entry 83%
    Zone exits 97%
    Zone d 73%
    And Gost.
    88%, 97%, 69%
    And offense for is off the charts

    And Faulk as I’ve been saying is not as bad as you guys make him out to be.In the blue in every category for last 2years, as opposed to Sbisa who was suggested as a good replacement who is in the red in every category

    Yeah, Faulk looks really good on these measures.

    Many here don’t see it.

    The Canes have a deep blue line. Faulk has been number one or two dman in toi/60 on their team for years.

    He’s not a number 8 defenseman.

  126. leadfarmer says:

    As I’ve heard Ryan Pulock is a very interesting player for the last 18 months.
    Numbers look a lot like Dougie Hamilton.
    Rumors that he takes over as #1 pp guy.
    Just something of interest for your keeper leagues.

  127. leadfarmer says:

    As you guys expect.
    Mcdavid is a living god.
    Draisatl is very good just needs to shoot more
    Nuge is pretty darn good
    JP looks respectable

    Lucic is meh
    Strome is meh
    Kassian is meh
    Rieder looks meh

    Caggula is dog meat
    Latestube is done
    Aberg is dog meat

    Bear looked like someone cheated, like your grandma on skates. The worst numbers you could imagine

    Now here’s the kicker
    Slepy looks pretty good. Really good actually

  128. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar: My favorite team stat is the fact that no team in the history of the NHL has ever scored 400 goals in a season – well, except the Oilers who did it 4 times.

    My favorite individual stat is the fact that Wayne Gretzky has more assists than any other player has points – and then he has more goals than any other player.

    Good choices : )

  129. leadfarmer says:

    Gravel looks like causes a volume shooter.
    Horrible otherwise. Even in his good year.
    Doesn’t look promising.
    Jerabek looks interesting though.

  130. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer: Bear looked like someone cheated, like your grandma on skates. The worst numbers you could imagine

    17 minutes sample size.

    I will say that in his time with the Oilers last year, I dont think he showed enough to be on the team this year, unless he takes a pretty good step forward.

  131. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk: 17 minutes sample size.

    I will say that in his time with the Oilers last year, I dont think he showed enough to be on the team this year, unless he takes a pretty good step forward.

    Yes I don’t think anyone wouldnt agree that it was a cup of coffee that went on just a little too long.

  132. leadfarmer says:

    Karl alzner is quite terrible.
    Alexei Emelin is really terrible

  133. Glovjuice says:

    digger50: The question was what can this team do to achieve balance and the answer draft and develop. Which appears to be the way forward.

    Yet if we review how we got here the issue in my eye was only partly draft and develop. The larger issue was poor management decisions. Poor trades, poor talent assessment, poor contract negotiations. (I count not having the picks to draft new players under poor trades)

    Although it presently looks like draft and develop is becoming a strength, the Oilers are still led by a GM who has a track record of being poor at those elements that got us here. Similar with head coach, he does not have a good record of developing and working with a young team and young talent.

    Despite better draft and develop as the obvious way forward to achieve balance,going forward with the same men with the same weaknesses, history is likely to repeat.

    Although it seems most are quiet on the GM / coach front this summer with a “wait and see” approach, are there any posters who have confidence either man will be a long term success story with the Oilers?

    Is this too strong a statement?

    I have very little to no confidence in either man. This blog keeps my fandom alive (and individual players like 97, Nuge and following draft picks – side note: Drai needs to pick his frickin effort up in his own zone) but other than extenuating circumstances (Old boys playing a role in decision making) Chia’s horrendously bad Reinhart trade was a fireable move (I was stunned in disbelief when that trade was announced) and I have had zero confidence he was the correct man for the job since. Plus, the man cannot string a sentence together when public speaking or being interviewed in any way, shape or form – he stammers away without excuding any confidence in himself whatsoever.

  134. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: My favorite team stat is the fact that no team in the history of the NHL has ever scored 400 goals in a season – well, except the Oilers who did it 4 times.

    My favorite individual stat is the fact that Wayne Gretzky has more assists than any other player has points – and then he has more goals than any other player.

    </blockquot
    Agreed, I bring this tidbit forward many times when conversing about greatest athletes of all time – Wayne really was impossibly good – wish he would have won that cup with LA.

  135. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Ha – You aren’t far off.

    Sure, if the offensive d-man (that hasn’t produced for a while except on the PP) finds his offence to a point that it off-sets (and passes) his really bad defence, then, yes, it would work out.

    The problem I have is the risk that he doesn’t find that offence and now we have another potentially untradeable contract and a further cap issue – we’d potentially need to buy it out.

    Its just too risky for me.The player has been trending the wrong way for a while now I believe.

    I’m not a big Faulk guy. I’m on the record numerous times saying I would prefer McKeown. But is he the eight-goal player he was last year, or the 15-17 goal player he was the three years prior to that? My money is on the latter, if he’s out of Carolina. The question is price. Some team is going to get him for cheap. And if he scores 15 goals again, they will be able to trade him for much more than he cost.

  136. Bling says:

    leadfarmer: Sorry for delay.I was enjoying Blings Montréal recommendations, thank you.Dieux du Ciel hibiscus beer is one of the better unique beers I’ve had lately.
    Public.tableau.com is where the numbers came fromTom Lesczczczczczzczxczzcxzyn from the athletic posts from this data set
    He had a comment about Barzal microstats today that has the direct link.It’s pretty interesting cause guys you expect to be terrible are terrible and guys that are Ricki defensemen have numbers that you see why they can’t find work

    Dieu du Ciel is amazing. Glad you liked it!

  137. Bruce McCurdy says:

    OriginalPouzar: My favorite team stat is the fact that no team in the history of the NHL has ever scored 400 goals in a season – well, except the Oilers who did it 4 times.

    5 times. 417, 424, 446, 401, 426.

    For the 7 year period 1981-88 (the same span I referenced yesterday that the Oilers had a Sh% north of 15%) the Oil scored 2849 goals, an AVERAGE of 407 per season.

  138. Wilde says:

    leadfarmer:
    Nurse
    Exits 91%
    Entry 41%
    Now offensive zone entry is 85 percentile.So while he skates it out of the zone which is frowned upon these days. He actually skates it quite a ways

    leadfarmer:
    Bear looked like someone cheated, like your grandma on skates. The worst numbers you could imagine

    leadfarmer:

    what’s really striking about Sekera was his zone entry into the offensive zone last year was in the 7th percentile while a guy like Benning was in the 70th percentile. He was like tying an anchor to the forwards

    Three things I gathered after watching this D corps a lot in reviews –

    – Nurse may never put it together in the offensive zone. It’s so frustrating how ridiculously good he is skating out and in, but nothing happens after and it happens just in the way that looks bad cerebrally.

    We may never know what he’s been told in his ELC by the coaching staffs. Lots of really simple stuff missing from a guy who doesn’t have puck skill, but we’re talking about simple decision stuff

    – Bear was entirely worse than almost everyone talked about at the time. There’s so, so much work to be done that I’m surprised anyone’s talking about making the playoffs and Bear having a shot at some NHL games simultaneously. I’m also surprised at the long leash that he got in a time when Drai was playing between Lucic&Cammaleri in meaningless games.

    – Sekera’s issues were talked about more, but again the gravity of them was surprising to me at second watch. I’ll be looking at dangerous chances against with Leon on the ice in my series, and Rej’s play had a lot to do with a lot of them. I don’t know why they had him back so early, he wasn’t right, he’s much better than that.

  139. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: Draft and develop.

    This is why I like Khaira. Drafted in the lower rounds, check out his family solid working class immigrants might as well be the Bobby Orr/Mahovlich families…

    Up until now consistently underrated(best when compared to the failed prospects, many who were told they were better than they turned out to be)…

    Still developing…sometimes hockey players just don’t seem to stop devloping which means there’s a chance he’s still got more development ahead of him which is simply one of the best ways to do player development.

    McLellan gets credit. Sometimes I’m amazed at how little credit McLellan gets. Maybe the team needs to win against those Taylor Hall stealing Swamp Monsters in Europe just to start off on the right foot. Excuse me I need a drink.

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m not a big Faulk guy. I’m on the record numerous times saying I would prefer McKeown. But is he the eight-goal player he was last year, or the 15-17 goal player he was the three years prior to that? My money is on the latter, if he’s out of Carolina. The question is price. Some team is going to get him for cheap. And if he scores 15 goals again, they will be able to trade him for much more than he cost.

    20, 24, 15, 19, 9 – those are his 5 on 5 points the last 5 years.

    Nurse had 24 5 on 5 points this year.

    Even prior to his regression, he has mainly been a PP guy. 20 and 24 5 on 5 points is OK but, to me, there is too much risk that he is a PP specialist that gives up more than he provides at evens, even on the 3rd pairing.

    I’m not concerned about a PP specialist – didn’t have one two years ago and the PP will always run through 97 (and 93).

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: This is why I like Khaira. Drafted in the lower rounds, check out his family solid working class immigrants might as well be the Bobby Orr/Mahovlichfamilies…

    Up until now consistently underrated(best when compared to the failed prospects, many who were told they were better than they turned out to be)…

    Still developing…sometimes hockey players just don’t seem to stop devloping which means there’s a chance he’s still got more development ahead of him which is simply one of the best ways to do player development.

    McLellan gets credit. Sometimes I’m amazed at how little credit McLellan gets. Maybe the team needs to win against those Taylor Hall stealing Swamp Monsters in Europe just to start off on the right foot. Excuse me I need a drink.

    I won’t disagree with the premise of the post but just one thing – Khaira wasn’t drafted in the lower rounds – he was the second pick of the third round.

  142. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I won’t disagree with the premise of the post but just one thing – Khaira wasn’t drafted in the lower rounds – he was the second pick of the third round.

    For Hunter1909:

    Upper Rounds: 1, 2

    Everything else: 3,4,5,6,7, Lower Rounds, due to statistical probability of future success.

    This reminds me of the last time I was in Edmonton: Was getting my car repaired or something and you need to sit in a waiting room there were these two types who didn’t care for the look of me so they start talking about hockey … one of them says he’s a Junior player wasn’t drafted the other type says “yeah so now you’re going to really be motivated” and I can’t say anything lol…I’m thinking “You’re a loser fuck off”…

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    Your definition differs than mine which includes “middle rounds” – no worries – either way, Jujhar is outperforming his draft position.

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