California Blue

Anyone who has ever driven across the prairies has an excellent reference point for the word ‘forever’ and a wealth of mind games that can be played in the car. Waiting for talent to develop can feel like forever, even though you know every passing mile means progress. Doesn’t feel like it though, it’s just miles and miles of miles and miles. If you ask the average Oilers fan how many players the organization has developed into NHL players since the minor league team moved to Bakersfield, the answer is probably ‘zero’ and I’m only half-kidding. Prospects develop by sundial, but they are developing and will emerge, even on teams that aren’t good in this area. That is a fact.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

AHL ENTRY DEALS

I usually do points-per-game (or 5-on-5 points-per-game) but the defensemen always get the short end of that deal. Since Prospect-stats.com has all kinds of measures, might as well take advantage. I’m running entry deals by rookie crop (you’ll see) and targeting the top forward and defenseman in each three-season segment.

THE 2014-15 OKLAHOMA CITY BARONS

  • Jordan Oesterle and Jujhar Khaira progressed (this is 5-on-5 ice time) over their AHL time and resulted in NHL games during their entry deals (25 for Oesterle, 25 for Khaira).
  • Dillon Simpson remained consistent over the three seasons, I think he might get some NHL time in Columbus. Doubt there’s much difference between Simpson and Keegan Lowe as players, truth to tell.
  • Mitch Moroz and Kellen Jones didn’t move up the depth chart and in the case of Moroz that’s a second-round pick not getting a push.

THE 2015-16 BAKERSFIELD CONDORS

  • Anton Slepyshev was the riser in this group, Joey Laleggia held his own (they moved up to forward as well) but I think he might see some NHL games.
  • Marco Roy, Braden Christoffer, Greg Chase and Kyle Platzer had unusual TOI totals, looks like they were slow-played for two seasons. Roy’s final season is just a few games, I think they should have signed him and played him a lot during his entry deal. One hopes they plan on using Tyler Benson in more of a feature role.

THE 2016-17 BAKERSFIELD CONDORS

  • The Oilers didn’t have many rookies. Drake Caggiula made the NHL team and Matt Benning took two seconds to make it.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi played a significant amount according to the estimates from prospects-stats.com, and he did play in the AHL in 2017-18 but only 10 games.
  • Patrick Russell is an interesting player, great PK numbers but slow boots.

THE 2017-18 BAKERSFIELD CONDORS

  • This is the reason I used time on ice this time, the Caleb Jones number. Defensemen are tough to figure out and we have no true north reading on usage, so estimated icetime is the next best thing.
  • Caleb Jones was busy, in fact the busiest rookie defenseman in this look at rookies over several years. It may not turn out to be a major arrow, but it’s sure as hell an arrow.
  • Ryan Mantha also played a lot and Ethan Bear wasn’t a gigantic amount of time behind. Maybe there was a need, maybe the coach was told to play them or else, or maybe these guys earned their time.

THE 2011-12 OKC BARONS FORWARDS

  • There are a few things this blog spent ages on, like following the three college blue to see which one won (Jeff Petry over Taylor Chorney and Cody Wild) and that crazy trade at the 2013 draft.
  • One of the more famous stories we tracked over a long time was the 2010 draft. I promoted it as a potentially outstanding cluster despite also knowing you have to wait five years. The hope was 2010 would produce something along the lines of the 2011 draft (Nuge, Klefbom, Rieder), but it was not to be for 2010’s group.
  • I always wondered about TOI for Tyler Pitlick, looks like Todd Nelson brought him along at about the same pace as the club would handle Jujhar Khaira. As an observer, I think the Oilers would do well to play these kids more out of the box.

WINNIPEG JETS 2015-2018

  • Josh Morrissey had the look of a quality NHL player from draft day through today, and the Jets still had him stop in the AHL for 57 games. It is similar to the Oilers handling of Oscar Klefbom, in my opinion.
  • Nic Petan played a ton (based on these estimates) as an AHL rookie. No Oilers forward in this group of estimates played more than Jesse Puljujarvi’s 14.35. That’s kind of been my point all along, if Petan (chosen No. 43 overall) can play that much, why not the lottery pick (even though he’s 18)?
  • Chase de Leo and Peter Stoykewich were invested in heavily as rookies by the Manitoba Moose and they could still make the NHL.
  • Even Jan Kostalek, who I didn’t place in bold, has been handled in a way that implies the organization is giving him every chance to succeed.
  • On the other hand, holy hell did the Jets organization cut bait quickly on Harstad, Fronk and Blomqvist.

This is a quick glance, and men like Jujhar Khaira and Tyler Pitlick eventually made the grade. It’s also important to note that not every player can step right in and play as many minutes as Nic Petan managed as a flat out rookie. I like the Jets pushing rookies Morrisey and Petan over 15 minutes a night at 5-on-5 (estimated) and am pleased the Oilers pushed Jesse Puljujarvi and the defensemen three (Jones, Mantha, Bear) last season in California. I would hope Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson get Petan minutes this coming season.

DARNELL NURSE

No contract yet and at this point, with September here, we can officially call this an evolving story. Nurse and his agent have very little room here, but with the negotiations from a year ago rewarding Leon Draisaitl in a big way, perhaps the agent feels Peter Chiarelli will find some extra money if pressed. It isn’t a bad ploy, but the odds of this ending in a bridge deal in the $3.25 million dollar range are quite high. Edmonton might be forced into dealing a veteran (Jon Willis has mentioned Zack Kassian) but if that was the plan it would be done by now. Stay tuned!

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back with a big show, the bases are juiced and we’re drunk with quality. The guest list is staggering, beginning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. How many points for the Oilers this season? Does McDavid leave his own past in the dust and go supernova?
  • Michael Gehlken, Las Vegas Review-Journal. We’ll discuss a bizarre set of transactions by the Raiders over the weekend.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Labour Day classics lived up to their name, CFL standings on the move, Nurse contract, Blake Wheeler has some walking around money.
  • Andy McNamara, TSN. CFL weekend, NFL rosters, it’s all happening!

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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74 Responses to "California Blue"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Alright, its now September and past Labor Day – its time for the Nurse signing to get done.

    I’ve provided my opinion that I won’t get worried until the 2nd week of September so I will stick to that – not worried yet but expecting the deal to get done this week.

    It needs to be done before camp – we can’t have Darnell missing camp – all players need a full camp in order for the team to hit the ground running.

    Go Oilers!

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jujhar Khaira – approached 80 games played in Bakersfield plus about 60 in Oklahoma City – a 3rd round pick who established himself as an every day NHL player last season (in my mind) and gave a glimmer of hope that maybe there is a middle six player there.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Likely players spending at least some time in Bakersfield with potential NHL careers:

    Yamamoto – very likely to have an NHL career
    Ethan Bear – quite likely to have an NHL career
    Tyler Benson – decent shot to have an NHL career
    Cooper Marody – decent shot to have an NHL career
    Caleb Jones – decent shot to have an NHL career
    William Lagesson – decent shot to have an NHL career

    I would cite anyone else as a distant bell including the likes of Cameron Hebig and Ryan Mantha (if he plays) unless there is a surprise demotion from the NHL.

    Did I miss anyone substantial?

  4. leadfarmer says:

    Wheeler extends 5 years 8.25 per
    Heck of a player and has been healthy

  5. tileguy says:

    Any chance that Nurse is a bit of a cancer? I mean the alleged incident of last year, a potential holdout, wasn’t he sulking about ice time his first year up? Naw, just nasty rumours. Go Oil!

  6. jp says:

    I finally got around to reading Dellow’s article on sheltering defensemen with on the fly changes against tired top lines.

    https://theathletic.com/468934/2018/08/15/dellow-how-mike-babcock-and-others-are-sheltering-defencemen-while-playing-them-against-top-opposition/

    I was left wondering, is it real?

    I mean, the effect is there to see in the numbers, it is clearly real. But are coaches actually intentionally using this strategy to shelter defensemen?

    I feel like the effect (some defenders getting on the ice later in the shifts of top line opposition) might just be a natural consequence of sheltering defenseman in the normal way (starting top pairs against top lines and keeping 3rd pairs away, to start a shift on ice). So defensemen who are sheltered, and play for line matching coaches, will basically automatically have their shifts against top lines start later (on average).

    If you’re matching your top pair vs the opposition top line whenever possible, they still need to come off at some point. And the defenders basically need to take the appropriate opportunities to change when they’re presented. They’re going to come off before the opposition top line sometimes. So the harder the initial line matching, the later in the top lines shifts the 3rd pair should come onto the ice generally.

    I guess my question is, wouldn’t we expect to see the effect Dellow is describing just based on hard line matching to start a shift?

    So basically there’s no need for a coach to take any specific action later regarding line changes for this effects to be present? If this is true, hard line matching (TOI vs top lines) should march lock step with how far into the opposition top line shift a player is coming on the ice.

    Is this making sense to anyone? Thoughts are welcome.

  7. who says:

    leadfarmer:
    Wheeler extends 5 years 8.25 per
    Heck of a player and has been healthy

    Love Wheeler. I think he’s one of the best players in the league and the heart and soul of the Jets.
    But that’s a lot of term and money for a 32 year old. Hard to see that being a good contract in 2 or 3 years.
    Maybe he will be the exception.

  8. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Using math, logic and reason, who will win the McDavid-line lottery?

    https://theathletic.com/503154/2018/09/04/oilers-forwards-and-chemistry-who-will-win-the-connor-mcdavid-line-lottery/

  9. godot10 says:

    Driving the Prairies is a piece of cake compared to driving through Northern Ontario from Toronto to Thunder Bay. Northern Ontario is endless.

  10. Melvis says:

    Miles and miles of miles and moles(sic) – Nicely put LT.

    In hindsight, I put smog, gridlock, and career prospects behind me for “What’s Bred In the Bone” as Robertson Davies put it. Besides, I had to hang up my skates while in the Southland back then, unless you like wheels on them.

    Very little ice to speak of before the Gretzky sale. Considrably more in the years following.

    And Huntington Beach is overrated. I prefer Watrous Beach. You can’t drown in there for trying.

  11. geowal says:

    godot10:
    Driving the Prairies is a piece of cake compared to driving through Northern Ontario from Toronto to Thunder Bay.Northern Ontario is endless.

    Did the drive to Cypress Hills and back from Calgary this weekend. Absolute walk in the park, granted it’s a small fraction of the full journey. I can’t imagine northern Ontario.

  12. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LT,

    Only played last year for the Moose but Sami Niku (198th 7th round 2015) is a player.

    Est.TOI/gm 16.38

    Was 2nd leading scorer on the Moose (!) as a 21 year old Dman with 54pts in 76 gp.

    He likely makes WPG out of camp from what I understand.

  13. Melvis says:

    I don’t think Nurse is a cancer, although his agent might be. In either case, it’s a bit over the top. I wouldn’t want that albatross around my neck. It’s a heavy weight. Try it on for size.

    If anything, blame a GM given to several overpays while seemingly oblivious of the consequences down the road. What’s he gonna do now? Try and dump one those for wiggle room on what we really need? A top four D with growth potential? JFC.

    My grandma was a better horse trader.

  14. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Alright, its now September and past Labor Day – its time for the Nurse signing to get done.

    I’ve provided my opinion that I won’t get worried until the 2nd week of September so I will stick to that – not worried yet but expecting the deal to get done this week.

    It needs to be done before camp – we can’t have Darnell missing camp – all players need a full camp in order for the team to hit the ground running.

    Go Oilers!

    Not the first time an over aggressive manager could damage the career of a player by asking for pie in the sky.

  15. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp:
    I finally got around to reading Dellow’s article on sheltering defensemen with on the fly changes against tired top lines.

    https://theathletic.com/468934/2018/08/15/dellow-how-mike-babcock-and-others-are-sheltering-defencemen-while-playing-them-against-top-opposition/

    I was left wondering, is it real?

    I mean, the effect is there to see in the numbers, it is clearly real. But are coaches actually intentionally using this strategy to shelter defensemen?

    I feel like the effect (some defenders getting on the ice later in the shifts of top line opposition) might just be a natural consequence of sheltering defenseman in the normal way (starting top pairs against top lines and keeping 3rd pairs away, to start a shift on ice). So defensemen who are sheltered, and play for line matching coaches, will basically automatically have their shifts against top lines start later (on average).

    If you’re matching your top pair vs the opposition top line whenever possible, they still need to come off at some point. And the defenders basically need to take the appropriate opportunities to change when they’re presented. They’re going to come off before the opposition top line sometimes. So the harder the initial line matching, the later in the top lines shifts the 3rd pair should come onto the ice generally.

    I guess my question is, wouldn’t we expect to see the effect Dellow is describing just based on hard line matching to start a shift?

    So basically there’s no need for a coach to take any specific action later regarding line changes for this effects to be present? If this is true, hard line matching (TOI vs top lines) should march lock step with how far into the opposition top line shift a player is coming on the ice.

    Is this making sense to anyone? Thoughts are welcome.

    The coach still needs to be cognizant to put the 3rd pair and not the 2nd pair on the ice when the puck is moving to the ozone.

    So yes, coaches do this on purpose.

    Have a look at some shift charts (nhl.com has them) and you can see what coaches are trying to do.

    They 3rd pair play much less than the other two pairs.

    For them to get such a high % of their TOI vs Top 6 lines in that situation can’t just be by chance as they don’t get nearly as many shifts as the 2nd pair.

  16. Oilman99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    LT,

    Only played last year for the Moose but Sami Niku (198th 7th round 2015) is a player.

    Est.TOI/gm 16.38

    Was 2nd leading scorer on the Moose (!) as a 21 year old Dman with 54pts in 76 gp.

    He likely makes WPG out of camp from what I understand.

    This could lead to an interesting waiver wire.

  17. Oilman99 says:

    who: Love Wheeler. I think he’s one of the best players in the league and the heart and soul of the Jets.
    But that’s a lot of term and money for a 32 year old. Hard to see that being a good contract in 2 or 3 years.
    Maybe he will be the exception.

    Took Wheeler a long time to morph from an “I” guy to a team player. This contract could turn out like the Lucic deal in a couple of years.

  18. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    The coach still needs to be cognizant to put the 3rd pair and not the 2nd pair on the ice when the puck is moving to the ozone.

    So yes, coaches do this on purpose.

    Have a look at some shift charts (nhl.com has them) and you can see what coaches are trying to do.

    They 3rd pair play much less than the other two pairs.

    For them to get such a high % of their TOI vs Top 6 lines in that situation can’t just be by chance as they don’t get nearly as many shifts as the 2nd pair.

    Fair point, there is clearly a coaching decision involved in putting the 3rd pair vs 2nd pair on as the 1st pair (and opposing top line) is finishing it’s shift.

    Without doubt there is a choice there to use the 3rd rather than 2nd pair, but I still feel like that’s a natural extension of the traditional sheltering (so the 3rd pair doesn’t end up facing the top line after they’ve sat for 1 shift).

    I wasn’t trying to suggest this is just chance, rather that the distinction being drawn about 2 different ways coaches shelter players is blurry. Is Dellow describing a ‘new’ way of sheltering defensemen, or is this a fairly obvious offshoot of the well described and well accepted way that coaches match lines?

    I feel like Dellow may be splitting hairs here rather than showing us something new, though I guess I am at this point too.

  19. Ryan says:

    jp,

    Some coaches are more vigilant about getting the match ups they want. I can see how the zone of play impacts on how they match lines and pairings.

    I can think back to playoff series, where the Bruins would throw Chara over the boards nearly every time the puck crossed the red line towards their zone.

    Or Eakins trying to shelter our fourth line by giving them an ozone faceoff (only to get scored on 10 seconds or less later) against the Shark’s top line).

    But yeah, I could see a coach being more comfortable throwing the bottom pairing over the boards when the opposing team’s top line is 30 seconds into a shift and the puck is headed to offensive zone.

    Here’s a fun summary of Shuttz’s first year on the Pens.

    https://www.pensburgh.com/2016/6/7/11876066/a-look-at-how-the-pens-are-using-kris-letang-to-shield-justin-schultz

  20. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Jujhar Khaira – approached 80 games played in Bakersfield plus about 60 in Oklahoma City – a 3rd round pick who established himself as an every day NHL player last season (in my mind) and gave a glimmer of hope that maybe there is a middle six player there.

    JJ can play on my 3rd line any day.
    Lowetide has Caggulia at 3Lw i’m guessing thats based on contract not results

  21. Zow says:

    Melvis:
    Miles and miles of miles and moles(sic) – Nicely put LT.

    In hindsight, I put smog, gridlock, and career prospects behind me for “What’s Bred In the Bone” as Robertson Davies put it. Besides, I had to hang up my skates while in the Southland back then, unless you like wheels on them.

    Very little ice to speak of before the Gretzky sale. Considrably more in the years following.

    And Huntington Beach is overrated. I prefer Watrous Beach. You can’t drown in there for trying.

    Float like a goat!!:)

  22. jtblack says:

    who: Love Wheeler. I think he’s one of the best players in the league and the heart and soul of the Jets.
    But that’s a lot of term and money for a 32 year old. Hard to see that being a good contract in 2 or 3 years.
    Maybe he will be the exception.

    I am all for paying a player who’s best years are ahead (Connor / Drai) … Very tricky for teams that have to re up a vet like Wheeler … I agree with you, deal prob not great in 2 or 3 years. It doesn’t kick in until next year and he will be 33. But what are the options for the team??? trade him? they won’t do that; so they have to sign him to today’s $$$$ and that’s what he commands …

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Not the first time an over aggressive manager could damage the career of a player by asking for pie in the sky.

    Do you mean “agent” as opposed to “manager”?

  24. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Oilman99: This could lead to an interesting waiver wire.

    Given that he can go down without waivers he will, but I don’t think he’ll be there too long.

    They really like him.

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp: Fair point, there is clearly a coaching decision involved in putting the 3rd pair vs 2nd pair on as the 1st pair (and opposing top line) is finishing it’s shift.

    Without doubt there is a choice there to use the 3rd rather than 2nd pair, but I still feel like that’s a natural extension of the traditional sheltering (so the 3rd pair doesn’t end up facing the top line after they’ve sat for 1 shift).

    I wasn’t trying to suggest this is just chance, rather that the distinction being drawn about 2 different ways coaches shelter players is blurry. Is Dellow describing a ‘new’ way of sheltering defensemen, or is this a fairly obvious offshoot of the well described and well accepted way that coaches match lines?

    I feel like Dellow may be splitting hairs here rather than showing us something new, though I guess I am at this point too.

    I don’t think it’s new.

    I think Tyler has been the first to quantify it and publish it.

    It’s funny, G and I were always wondering why so many 3rd pair guys had good “Vs. Elite” metrics that couldn’t be accounted for by TOI w/ their own elite forwards or zone starts.

    When Tyler published that it was a “Eurkeka!” Moment.

  26. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Do you mean “agent” as opposed to “manager”?

    Do hockey players have managers?

  27. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909: Do hockey players have managers?

    People have hands, dogs have paws.

  28. Andy Dufresne says:

    leadfarmer:
    Wheeler extends 5 years 8.25 per
    Heck of a player and has been healthy

    Anyone take 32 yr old Wheeler at $8.25 over 22 yr old Draisaitl at $8.5

    Kevin Cheveldayoff is spoken of highly in this forum…Is this a good deal for Winnipeg? Great Deal?

  29. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide:
    For The Athletic: Using math, logic and reason, who will win the McDavid-line lottery?

    https://theathletic.com/503154/2018/09/04/oilers-forwards-and-chemistry-who-will-win-the-connor-mcdavid-line-lottery/

    Thats easy….anyone they put there.

  30. Lowetide says:

    Andy Dufresne: Anyone take 32 yr old Wheeler at $8.25 over 22 yr old Draisaitl at $8.5

    Kevin Cheveldayoff is spoken of highly in this forum…Is this a good deal for Winnipeg?Great Deal?

    I like Wheeler a lot, he has good boots and his point totals are fabulous. I like the deal until the minute I don’t like the deal. Bill James always talked about career bell curves and the great players having a long, slower fade. I think you can say Wheeler is safely in that group, but he signed after a career year and it’s going to be painful later on.

    I don’t love the Leon deal because it’s a million too much but I love his future and all of the signed seasons have a chance to be good ones.

  31. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide,

    Career year and 21 pts in 17 playoff games. Similar to Leons 2016-17 playoffs 16 pts in 13 games.

    I take the Draisaitl contract 6 days a week and twice on Sundays.

    I will acknowldge that only time will tell.

    AND PLEASE let JP turn into some version of Blake Wheeler.

  32. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne: Anyone take 32 yr old Wheeler at $8.25 over 22 yr old Draisaitl at $8.5

    Kevin Cheveldayoff is spoken of highly in this forum…Is this a good deal for Winnipeg?Great Deal?

    It will turn out like always.

    It is very inefficient to give retirement contracts to anyone but generational players. The hard side of pro sports is this.

    For me the ideal scenario is having the player under contract until ~34 for forwards and trading them at peak value at 31 or 32. For top players their reps are still high. Reload the team with high picks or prospects.

    Connor should retire an Oiler, at this point nobody else should, if becoming and staying a top team matters.

    One problem that keeps happening for the Oilers is contracts re-upping in the late 20’s. It’s the worst time to resign or sign players that produce, peak value. Ideally bridge your own to get a contract ending early 30’s and let another team ride the retirement contract out.

    Low cost players are different, and perhaps an especially unique player might be different.

    Of course agents are wary of this, prudent teams would be all over it unless they can get team friendly contracts which most can’t.

  33. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: I like Wheeler a lot, he has good boots and his point totals are fabulous. I like the deal until the minute I don’t like the deal. Bill James always talked about career bell curves and the great players having a long, slower fade. I think you can say Wheeler is safely in that group, but he signed after a career year and it’s going to be painful later on.

    I don’t love the Leon deal because it’s a million too much but I love his future and all of the signed seasons have a chance to be good ones.

    All Fair.

    Do you think the Oilers could get more than $8.5 miilion dollars of value if they traded Leon today?

    I do.

    Of course its difficult to define what “more than $8.5 million of value” is/means given that “value” is somewhat subjective.

  34. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne: All Fair.

    Do you think the Oilers could get more than $8.5 miilion dollars of value if they traded Leon today?

    I do.

    Of course its difficult to define what “more than $8.5 million of value” is/means given that “value” is somewhat subjective.

    The problem is not the $8.5 million that is going to Draisaitl. He is worth every penny. The problem is the $13.5 million going to Lucic, Russell, Kassian, and Caggiula, who are only worth $5 million all together. That is where $8.5 million dollars was lost.

    The problem is the cap hit from buyouts to Pouliot (because the coach is too lazy to coach) and Gryba (because the GM was nuts to give him a 2 year contract and nuts to buy him out a year later).

  35. HT Joe says:

    Andy Dufresne: AND PLEASE let JP turn into some version of Blake Wheeler.

    If JP turns into some version of Blake Wheeler, let’s hope Chia doesn’t repeat history by trading him away for an underwhelming return.

  36. PunjabiOil says:

    The Wheeler deal is bad in the sense Winnipeg bears all the risk. They signed the extension a year before they had to, for a guy on the wrong side of 30.

    33 to be exact when the contract extension kicks in.

    A drop in performance next season, which is common at that age, and there’s was no chance he gets that contract. From anyone. Winnipeg is essentially paying a premium in dollars, term, and bearing all the risk,

    Is Wheeler likely to say no to that contract extension in March 2019?

    At these figures, Winnipeg is paying fair market value if everything turns out as hoped.

    This isn’t to suggest Wheeler isn’t a bonafide star. He’s absolutely a top 20 forward in the league. Just seems like a case where the team is okay with overpaying the player based on underpaying him for so long.

    Goodwill.

  37. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Likely players spending at least some time in Bakersfield with potential NHL careers:

    Yamamoto – very likely to have an NHL career
    Ethan Bear – quite likely to have an NHL career
    Tyler Benson – decent shot to have an NHL career
    Cooper Marody – decent shot to have an NHL career
    Caleb Jones – decent shot to have an NHL career
    William Lagesson – decent shot to have an NHL career

    I would cite anyone else as a distant bell including the likes of Cameron Hebig and Ryan Mantha (if he plays) unless there is a surprise demotion from the NHL.

    Did I miss anyone substantial?

    No but given the openings on the wings there are all kinds of possibilities including Maksimov,McLeod and maybe even Hebig!

  38. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: because the GM was nuts

    Lowe+MacT are still working their schtick behind the scenes unless MacT is called on to give the rubes a show of contriteness, like at the draft.

    The day Chiarelli/McLellan were brought in, both started with a pair of washed up vultures breathing down their necks.

    How much cap negative value do these bozos bring? I’ll start with 10,000,000.00 Anyone think it’s higher?

  39. pts2pndr says:

    godot10:
    Driving the Prairies is a piece of cake compared to driving through Northern Ontario from Toronto to Thunder Bay.Northern Ontario is endless.

    My first trip driving trip from Winnipeg to Cornwall seemed without end! Trees an rocks repeat enfenitem!

  40. Lowetide says:

    Andy Dufresne: All Fair.

    Do you think the Oilers could get more than $8.5 miilion dollars of value if they traded Leon today?

    I do.

    Of course its difficult to define what “more than $8.5 million of value” is/means given that “value” is somewhat subjective.

    Yes. Absolutely. Don’t tell anyone.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: No but given the openings on the wings there are all kinds of possibilities including Maksimov,McLeod and maybe even Hebig!

    Yes, Maksimov and McLeod would make the list but I was speaking to players that will spend time in the AHL this coming season.

  42. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: The problem is not the $8.5 million that is going to Draisaitl.He is worth every penny.The problem is the $13.5 million going to Lucic, Russell, Kassian, and Caggiula, who are only worth $5 million all together.That is where $8.5 million dollars was lost.

    The problem is the cap hit from buyouts to Pouliot (because the coach is too lazy to coach) and Gryba (because the GM was nuts to give him a 2 year contract and nuts to buy him out a year later).

    Wait how is coach too lazy to coach? Since getting bought out by the Oilers Pou signed for a little more than a quarter of his salary with Buffalo, wore out his welcome, got told he’s not being brought back, and now nobody wants to sign him.
    But yes it’s the coaches fault. He’s a 4 million dollar player. Why don’t you make him play like a 4 million dollar player. and while you’re at it make Lucic play like a 6 million dollar player and Russell like a 4 million dollar defenseman

  43. frjohnk says:

    Andy Dufresne: Anyone take 32 yr old Wheeler at $8.25 over 22 yr old Draisaitl at $8.5

    Kevin Cheveldayoff is spoken of highly in this forum…Is this a good deal for Winnipeg?Great Deal?

    Draisaitl every day.

    Jets are my second favorite team and I like the fact that the Jets kept Wheeler but the cost was higher than I wanted. Its kind of like when Lucic came to Edmonton for me. Liked that the Oilers got him, but man, that contract. I watch about 25 Jets games a year since they came from Atlanta and I do have to say that Wheeler has gotten better each year. When do the wheels start to wobble and when do they fall off, I dont know.

    But that is the issue with UFA contracts. If a team wants the player, they will most likely have to overpay.

    I think a better comparison from the Oilers for Wheeler, would be Lucic, not because they are the same player, but because both are the big UFA contracts each team signed.

    Draisaitl comparison from the Jets is Scheifele.

    Which signings look better for the GM? Scheifele and Wheeler for Chevy? or Draisaitl and Lucic for Chia?

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk:

    Which signings look better for the GM?Scheifele and Wheeler for Chevy? or Draisaitl and Lucic for Chia?

    Well, that’s not even close. While the Wheeler contract may look bad in time, he is one of the better players in the league and worth every penny at this time. Lucic was never worth his contract and I can’t imagine a Wheeler fall-off anywhere near what we’ve seen from Lucic (subject to rebound).

    I love me some Drai and don’t have an issue with his contract given his age and it buys his 20s but the Scheifele contract is one of the best in the league.

  45. Bling says:

    Wheeler is the new Thornton. Putting up 91 points as a 32 year old in today’s era is completely ridiculous. Helps having Scheifele around.

    Even if you have him depreciating on the age curve starting this season, I think he still grades out as a top line player for another three seasons. After that, the Jets have enough young, cheap talent bubbling under that he can slide down the depth chart and still be an extremely valuable piece.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    With respect to re-signing incumbent UFAs at the end of their 20s, that is one reason why we need a steady stream of prospects in the future – to replace the aging veterans when they price themselves out of the cap structure (and provide extreme value contracts on their ELCs/2nd deals).

    Of course, a team doesn’t just let a Wheeler walk but with prospect succession planning a consistent contender can be built.

    Unicorns.

  47. Bling says:

    PunjabiOil:
    The Wheeler deal is bad in the sense Winnipeg bears all the risk.They signed the extension a year before they had to, for a guy on the wrong side of 30.

    33 to be exact when the contract extension kicks in.

    A drop in performance next season, which is common at that age, and there’s was no chance he gets that contract.From anyone.Winnipeg is essentially paying a premium in dollars, term, and bearing all the risk,

    Is Wheeler likely to say no to that contract extension in March 2019?

    At these figures, Winnipeg is paying fair market value if everything turns out as hoped.

    This isn’t to suggest Wheeler isn’t a bonafide star.He’s absolutely a top 20 forward in the league.Just seems like a case where the team is okay with overpaying the player based on underpaying him for so long.

    Goodwill.

    Jets have enough young, cheap talent bubbling under that they can and should take that risk, IMO. Their window to win is right now, and Wheeler is a big part of it.

    I think it’s good for both player and team. The player focuses on playing and staying healthy — i.e. you avoid the Josh Donaldson circus that happened with the Blue Jays this season. The team wins because Wheeler is a durable and extremely consistent player. I bet he ages like a Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Jagr, or Thornton.

  48. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, Maksimov and McLeod would make the list but I was speaking to players that will spend time in the AHL this coming season.

    Someone mention Maksimov?
    My prospect crush

  49. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I don’t think it’s new.

    I think Tyler has been the first to quantify it and publish it.

    It’s funny, G and I were always wondering why so many 3rd pair guys had good “Vs. Elite” metrics that couldn’t be accounted for by TOI w/ their own elite forwards or zone starts.

    When Tyler published that it was a “Eurkeka!” Moment.

    I can’t disagree with any of that.

  50. jp says:

    Ryan,

    Yeah there’s some extreme examples of line matching out there. Ahhh Jultz.

    Also, you posted this article a few days back in relation to Faulk.

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/defensemen-still-have-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/

    I had a hard time believing there was no correlation for on ice SV% season to season, and there was a little bit of a slope to the line in the article, and the article also didn’t define relative SV%, so I questioned whether it was relative to team or not.

    Anyway, I went back and spent too much time to basically re-do the analysis myself. I looked at 16-17 vs 17-18, 5×5 On ice Shooting %, On ice SV% and PDO, all relative to team. How well do they correlate season to season. Just defensemen (about 180 in total who played 600 min both years).

    The R(2) were:
    On ice shooting%: 0.012
    On ice save%: 0.00063
    PDO: 0.00048

    So on ice shooting for Dmen is actually better correlated year to year than save% lol.

    But yeah, I’m still a bit stunned that there is literally not even the faintest hint of a suggesting that on ice save % might be reproducible in any way.

    This is not big news obviously, since I’m just repeating what someone else did 4 years ago. But I’m convinced now.

    I suppose it’s still conceivable that Faulk really is affecting things cause he’s THAT bad, but seems awfully unlikely. I’ll feel a lot more optimistic about things turning out if a trade for Faulk does materialize at some point.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: Someone mention Maksimov?
    My prospect crush

    I saw him first…..

  52. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    With respect to re-signing incumbent UFAs at the end of their 20s, that is one reason why we need a steady stream of prospects in the future – to replace the aging veterans when they price themselves out of the cap structure (and provide extreme value contracts on their ELCs/2nd deals).

    Of course, a team doesn’t just let a Wheeler walk but with prospect succession planning a consistent contender can be built.

    Unicorns.

    The lower you pick because you’re good the thinner the pickings. It’s been shown no team has the magic formula drafting junior players.

    That is exactly why you trade maturing assets for fresh assets. Wheeler is great, for a while.

    When looking at these things context is important. Wheeler only brings offense. Lucic was brought assuming he was going to score at a decent rate, but of course for his league best agro and professionalism (last year he didn’t do it for sure). Wheeler isn’t Lucic and the opposite.

    Sure Lucic was an obvious problem contract, but as GM given the state of the Oilers I would have done it as well. Because of his feared rep in the league and dedication to training and taking it seriously.

    Many players with ability are not able to do the level of work needed to play in the best pro league in the sport. In any league. Lucic is a good example of that.

  53. Ryan says:

    jp:
    Ryan,

    Yeah there’s some extreme examples of line matching out there. Ahhh Jultz.

    Also, you posted this article a few days back in relation to Faulk.

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/defensemen-still-have-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/

    I had a hard time believing there was no correlation for on ice SV% season to season, and there was a little bit of a slope to the line in the article, and the article also didn’t define relative SV%, so I questioned whether it was relative to team or not.

    Anyway, I went back and spent too much time to basically re-do the analysis myself. I looked at 16-17 vs 17-18, 5×5 On ice Shooting %, On ice SV% and PDO, all relative to team. How well do they correlate season to season. Just defensemen (about 180 in total who played 600 min both years).

    The R(2) were:
    On ice shooting%: 0.012
    On ice save%: 0.00063
    PDO: 0.00048

    So on ice shooting for Dmen is actually better correlated year to year than save% lol.

    But yeah, I’m still a bit stunned that there is literally not even the faintest hint of a suggesting that on ice save % might be reproducible in any way.

    This is not big news obviously, since I’m just repeating what someone else did 4 years ago. But I’m convinced now.

    I suppose it’s still conceivable that Faulk really is affecting things cause he’s THAT bad, but seems awfully unlikely. I’ll feel a lot more optimistic about things turning out if a trade for Faulk does materialize at some point.

    Nicely done.

    Not sure if you saw this link that Leadfarmer found. It’s a slick interface for the Cory S zone entry project.

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.turtoro#!/vizhome/2-yearA3ZPlayerComps/ComparisonDashboard

    Faulk looks really good in these micro stats.

  54. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jp:
    Ryan,

    Yeah there’s some extreme examples of line matching out there. Ahhh Jultz.

    Also, you posted this article a few days back in relation to Faulk.

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/defensemen-still-have-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/

    I had a hard time believing there was no correlation for on ice SV% season to season, and there was a little bit of a slope to the line in the article, and the article also didn’t define relative SV%, so I questioned whether it was relative to team or not.

    Anyway, I went back and spent too much time to basically re-do the analysis myself. I looked at 16-17 vs 17-18, 5×5 On ice Shooting %, On ice SV% and PDO, all relative to team. How well do they correlate season to season. Just defensemen (about 180 in total who played 600 min both years).

    The R(2) were:
    On ice shooting%: 0.012
    On ice save%: 0.00063
    PDO: 0.00048

    So on ice shooting for Dmen is actually better correlated year to year than save% lol.

    But yeah, I’m still a bit stunned that there is literally not even the faintest hint of a suggesting that on ice save % might be reproducible in any way.

    This is not big news obviously, since I’m just repeating what someone else did 4 years ago. But I’m convinced now.

    I suppose it’s still conceivable that Faulk really is affecting things cause he’s THAT bad, but seems awfully unlikely. I’ll feel a lot more optimistic about things turning out if a trade for Faulk does materialize at some point.

    I think some players can move the puck and have nice stats, but fail in key moments and give up goals, so need sheltering, like Schultz.

  55. jp says:

    Ryan: Nicely done.

    Not sure if you saw this link that Leadfarmer found. It’s a slick interface for the Cory S zone entry project.

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.turtoro#!/vizhome/2-yearA3ZPlayerComps/ComparisonDashboard

    Faulk looks really good in these micro stats.

    Thanks for the reminder. I did see that, but forgot to bookmark it.

    He does look good across the board last year. A bunch of the offensive stuff in 16-17 looks ugly though. And he doesn’t do so well by the eye test according to OP.

    It all depends on the price I guess. And I’m sure the not even being an effective 3rd pairing guys is overblown.

  56. jp says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I think some players can move the puck and have nice stats, but fail in key moments and give up goals, so need sheltering, like Schultz.

    Sure, but Schultz doesn’t look good by a lot of the stats either, so it’s not really the same case.

  57. Ryan says:

    jp: Thanks for the reminder. I did see that, but forgot to bookmark it.

    He does look good across the board last year. A bunch of the offensive stuff in 16-17 looks ugly though. And he doesn’t do so well by the eye test according to OP.

    It all depends on the price I guess. And I’m sure the not even being an effective 3rd pairing guys is overblown.

    To thrive in the NHL, you have to exploit inefficiencies and find opportunities.

    This reminds me of the Jeff Petry situation. He was -25 in 59 games (his last as an Oiler). McTavish had challenged him to earn a contract and ended up squandering Petry for a second rounder and a conditional fifth. Petry was playing the toughest minutes on a bad team with poor goaltending.

    He likely had no value around the league as plenty of hockey men saw him bad. He averaged 20m 56s per game.

    Sure the Habs probably would have preferred to acquire Seth Jones or Colton Parayko, but they were shopping in the bargain bin.

    One tell. On a much deeper blue line (understatement of the year), Faulk played 22:16 per game last season. That’s over a minute more per game than Petry played on the hapless 2014 Oilers squad.

    The other famous example of shopping in the bargain bin was the Pens. Schultz is a more limited player than even Faulk. The Pens grabbed him for a third rounder. He was -22 in his last 44 games as an Oiler.

    For all his talk of being a puck mover, Schultz couldn’t make a stretch pass to save his life. He was actually very poor at outlet passes.

    This is one area that Faulk differs from Schultz. Faulk is very good at making outlet passes on the tape. You see this on his controllled dzone exit and controlled entries percentiles. He’s also better than Shultz at preventing controlled entries.

    We’re not even bringing him in to play 22 minutes a night.

  58. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Faulk is not perfect, but again back to the bargain bin shopping.

    I watched Faulk a ton two years ago, so now I feel like Bob Green waxing poetic about Griffin Reinhart.

    Faulk with the puck on his stick looks like Drew Doughty. Again, that’s with the puck on his stick or on the attack, obviously not defensively.

    I almost forgot to mention the shot. Faulk can absolutely hammer a one-timer. Watch some replays or highlights.

  59. leadfarmer says:

    Ryan:
    Ryan,

    Faulk is not perfect, but again back to the bargain bin shopping.

    I watched Faulk a ton two years ago, so now I feel like Bob Green waxing poetic about Griffin Reinhart.

    Faulk with the puck on his stick looks like Drew Doughty. Again, that’s with the puck on his stick or on the attack, obviously not defensively.

    I almost forgot to mention the shot. Faulk can absolutely hammer a one-timer. Watch some replays or highlights.

    I’m kind of entertained that your telling yourself to watch some replays or highlights

  60. jp says:

    Ryan:
    Ryan,

    Faulk is not perfect, but again back to the bargain bin shopping.

    I watched Faulk a ton two years ago, so now I feel like Bob Green waxing poetic about Griffin Reinhart.

    Faulk with the puck on his stick looks like Drew Doughty. Again, that’s with the puck on his stick or on the attack, obviously not defensively.

    I almost forgot to mention the shot. Faulk can absolutely hammer a one-timer. Watch some replays or highlights.

    That’s a key point though. Is Faulk in the bargain bin?

    Petry and Schultz were traded for 3rd rounders (granted, they were pending UFAs). The rumored ask for Faulk is mile and miles and miles from bargain bin.

    Another point is that Faulk comes with a 4.8M cap hit, for 2 years, with a NTC. Was Faulk negative value for that contract in 2017-18, with the opposition he played? I think so.

    OP is right, there’s a possibility this is a negative value player relative to cap hit (however likely it is to play out that way). And where did the even strength offense go for a very good outlet passer?

    The flip side is I do agree he’s likely to be better than last year. And without doubt he’s a good bet to be better than someone the Oilers will employ.

    But how much do you pay for that (asset wise)? I’d give the Canes a 3rd rounder, sure, but I don’t know if that gets it done. And things start to get problematic after that.

  61. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer: I’m kind of entertained that your telling yourself to watch some replays or highlights

    Ha. That’s my way of doing an addendum. Thanks for the feedback. My lazy editing method makes me look crazy.

  62. Ryan says:

    jp,

    Yeah, if the price isn’t reasonable, you don’t get in a bidding war for Justin Faulk.

    I wouldn’t trade a material player or prospect.

  63. jp says:

    Ryan:
    jp,

    Yeah, if the price isn’t reasonable, you don’t get in a bidding war for Justin Faulk.

    I wouldn’t trade a material player or prospect.

    Yup, some of the trade options that were thrown around were scary.

    At a bargain bin price though he certainly has a chance to be a material addition.

  64. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer:
    Wheeler extends 5 years 8.25 per
    Heck of a player and has been healthy

    You look at PvP wingers last 5 years.
    #1 ?
    Top 3 for sure.

    Moved in new home in Calgary Monday & Tuesday.
    Start stem Cell production injections at Tom Baker today (wed)

    The couple who set up thier rental properties have a house dedicated to two (basement and upper) 3 bedroom suites for families dealing with cancer requiring sterile nature.

    Plus three duplex structures: 4 suites per.
    2 dedicated to women & family getting out of abusive life.
    1 dedicated to men & family getting out of abusive life.
    She said it is amazing that men will not fight back. Theirwas not many options for them.

    Amazingly bright & comforting properties.
    Amazing couple.

    Showed pictures of my dad and Churchill buddies individually feed polar bears.
    They liked that and asked for a copy of one.

    Found out this week.
    One of our closest family friends contacting me to pass on more stories about his life.
    They met thru the Apollo program.
    She was a hidden figures lady.
    Canadian AVRO boys were so accepting.
    Who knew,

    FaceTime & Family:
    You go to court to get primary custody of your child.
    You see the women you challenged turn into a decent human being and mother of 2 children.
    Your Autistic child makes a mature decision to spend the next year with her so as to not subject you to his high bacteria rate and you are proud.

    Now I will be away from them for 2-6 months depending on Eminem’s recovery.
    FaceTime everyday!
    Technology allows you to still be a family!

    Yes this site is too.
    Just like the strong willed intellectual cousins, aunts, uncles you are used to arguing with with across the family farm table.
    About Cards, Politics, hockey.

    Off Tom Baker, Oiler hat, Mcdavid jersey, seats, & sneakers.

    Have a good day people!

  65. rickithebear says:

    PS: Faulk is one of the effective PP unit point shots.
    He is not a dman but a highly ineffective rover at even.
    With bottom of the league shot success density allowed.
    Top GA teams are 20-40% more successful get to rd 17 and advancing to rd of 8 and conf finals.

    Kind of want this cup core basevteam to get thier.

  66. jp says:

    rickithebear,

    Good luck with all this Ricki

  67. jp says:

    rickithebear:
    PS: Faulk is one of the effective PP unit point shots.
    He is not a dman but a highly ineffective rover at even.
    With bottom of the league shot successdensity allowed.
    Top GA teams are 20-40% more successful get to rd 17 and advancing to rd of 8 and conf finals.

    Kind of want this cup core basevteam to get thier.

    Faulk may be an ineffective rover, but you also called Auvitu an HD Dman while deriding rovers the other day, so I dunno.

  68. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Good luck with your treatments. Nothing fun about what you are going through.

  69. leadfarmer says:

    I don’t like Faulk as a player but I don’t think he’s as bad as most make him out to be. Needs help in his own end especially in the box but gets the puck going in a hurry the other way and Definitely helps in the transition game and in the opposition zone.
    Don’t want to pay the acquisition cost though and don’t have room under the cap next season so it’s all a moot point

  70. Wilde says:

    rickithebear: Have a good day people!

    You too Ricki!!!

  71. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: Yes. Absolutely. Don’t tell anyone.

    Haha…..yes of course…..strictly on the QT……er….uh…..the down lowe…..

  72. leadfarmer says:

    What do we know about Faulk.
    He prevents zone entries at above average rate between 50-75 quartile
    Gets the puck out of the zone very well (70-80%)
    Enters the ozone at that junction of top 70-80%
    Shot generation at that 80th percentile
    Now his most common partners were
    Fleury – #1. A rookie
    Hanifin # 3. A guy that we are finding out to be very sheltered
    Slavin #2
    Slavin all numbers except GF are amazing and Carolinas GF numbers are crazy. Ex Pesce without Slavin is 23%!!!

  73. delooper says:

    The problem with Northern Ontario is twofold:

    1) It’s not actually in the northern part of Ontario. If you transported most of what people call “northern ontario” west, it would be in Montana.

    2) The speed limit is 90km/h?? On the trans Canada?? And there’s a lot of wee towns that go out of their way to enforce that ridiculous limit. Sigh. Thunder Bay has so much of my money.

  74. mit167 says:

    Just drove my daughter from Fort McMurray to Belleville. We laughed at each province as we drove through and how different they were. Alberta gas averaged $1.20 and the drive for the most part was 110-120 with nice scenery. Saskatchewan the speed stayed the same. The gas went up a bit and the scenery became flatter. Manitoba in places was nice gas and speed limit was good and in places the scenery especially after Winnipeg was beautiful. Ontario the scenery was amazing… Gas skyrocketed and the speed limit dropped to 90 with pretty specific speed signs defining fines for speed and demerits. I kept to about 100 braking whenever I saw the OPP but not before signing the words Who’s down with OPP. We were probably passed by every vehicle in Ontario and some of them passed us more than once. Nice drive… glad I’m flying home

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