Entering Hope (Again)

by Lowetide

In 2010 September, I wrote an article (no longer available in the archives) called “Entering Hope” on this blog. It was in response to an online discussion surrounding how to handle Taylor Hall in his draft +1 season, and Magnus Paajarvi in his draft +2 campaign (both in 2010-11). I quoted several well known Oilers observers of the time, and gave my own opinion. My point in 2010 remains and I do think we might see it come into play this fall.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic made some big additions yesterday, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman joining the Edmonton staff. Daniel, Jonathan Willis, Minnia Feng, Pat McLean and me will deliver prose all winter long and there will be tons via the national desk from Tyler Dellow, Corey Pronman and Dom Luszczysyn. Special offer is here, less than $4 a month! Also, don’t forget to join us later this month (September 24, The Rec Room) for a get together and general merriment. I’m thrilled to be part of this group, hope you join us.

HOPE QUOTES

It is 2010. It is September. We are discussing the idea of Taylor Hall being sent back to junior. It’s important to note that no individual who will be quoted here had any real doubt about Hall playing in the NHL, there was a long established tradition of the No. 1 overall playing the following year in the NHL. Magnus Paajarvi’s status was also part of the conversation. Lesser player, still eligible for junior hockey. It was a matter of the wisdom of doing so, as it pertained to the well being of the franchise.

  • Tyler Dellow: “Neither Taylor Hall nor Magnus Pajaarvi should make the Oilers this year. It’s a simple enough proposition: you only get three years with these guys on entry level contracts and you might as well use them when the player in question is a stronger player.”
  • Benjamin Massey: “The primary reason I feel Hall and Pääjärvi should remain in the NHL for the coming season is that I believe it’ll help them improve as hockey players.” Source
  • Robin Brownlee: “After four straight seasons out of the playoffs, telling Hall and Paajarvi to wait a year as part of the big picture might be a tough sell for the majority of fans. They just want something to cheer about, and who can blame them?” Source
  • Lowetide: “If Taylor Hall is ready to score 20 goals in the NHL at his age, I believe he’ll be a better player one year from now because he was able to handle the extreme challenges at speed.  If Hall gets to game number 9 and has 0-0-0 for boxcars then they need to send the young man back to junior. Same with MPS. The Oilers shouldn’t give millions to teenagers who aren’t good enough to play, but these two appear to be the real deal.”

Hall was 2-3-5 after nine games, but did start slowly (7, 0-1-1). He would play 65 games in 2010-11, scoring 22 goals. Paajarvi also played in the NHL that season, scoring 15 goals. Hall went on to post 80 points as an Oiler in 2013-14, and won the Hart Trophy with 93 points (and 39 goals) for New Jersey this past season. Paajarvi remains in the NHL but has scored only 36 more goals in the seven seasons that have passed since his rookie campaign.

Looking back, entering the NHL immediately worked for Hall and Steve Tambellini got him signed to a terrific contract. Paajarvi’s offense was a concern and it cost him a feature role on an NHL roster, not certain the early push had an impact but it’s worth a discussion.

THE 2018-19 SEASON

I feel the same way about Evan Bouchard. He’ll be 19 in a month and he is physically mature beyond his years. If he’s good enough to play, then the Oilers should employ him. If he’s 0-0-0 after 9 games, or getting caved, or passed like a house on the side of the road, then it’s clearly too soon. I didn’t agree with the Kailer Yamamoto decision one year ago, because it meant delaying Jesse Puljujarvi (who should have been in the AHL or Sm-Liiga in draft +1). This year, Evan Bouchard is the only underager I can see being in the conversation, and there is no defensive version of Jesse Puljujarvi who warrants the push. I do believe Bouchard has a chance to play in the regular season. The biggest issue will be coverage and gap control.

RYAN MANTHA

Jim Matheson has an update and explains Mantha’s absence from the rookie camp list. It will be a big loss for both player and organization, he had good numbers as a rookie pro and showed two-way acumen.

THE 2018 OILERS ROOKIE ROSTER

  1. G Stuart Skinner. He’ll turn 20 on November 1, coming off a strong campaign that saw him backstop the Swift Current Broncos to the WHL championship. He was .932 in 26 WHL playoff games in the spring, surely his career highlight so far. I would rank him as the best goalie prospect since Devan Dubnyk.  Skinner saw 32.95 shots per in Lethbridge, 31.15 during the regular season in Swift Current.
  2. G Dylan Wells. Erratic results playing goal for a chaotic team, Wells enters pro hockey with more questions than Skinner. Wells faced 34.89 shots per 60 in Peterborough, hopefully we’ll see better results from him on a more structured team.
  3. G Olivier Rodrigue. Newly drafted goalie was the top NA goalie on most draft lists and the highest Oilers goalie selection (tied with Samu Perhonen) since Devan Dubnyk in 2004. He plays in the QMJHL (shot madness league) and faced 26.26 shots per 60. One curio worth mentioning? Rodrigue’s .902SP towered over his backup (.862) last year.
  4. RD Evan Bouchard. The big story at this rookie camp will be Evan Bouchard, the ‘perfect fit’ draft choice and a player the Oilers clearly project as a big part of the future. I’ll be watching for his outlet passing and improved coverage, he is not a breathtaking visual player but effective in several areas (passing, shot, patience).
  5. RD Ethan Bear. This should be his final trip to rookie camp and honestly Bear does have a chance to  play in the NHL at some point this coming season. Coverage gaps and passing lanes are the things to watch.
  6. LD Marc-Olivier Crevier-Morin. One of the curios things about this year’s rookie roster is the lack of junior invites and the large number of ECHL players who are well past 20. Crevier Morin is one (he is 22).
  7. RD Logan Day. Div III NCAA grad is an intriguing prospect, don’t look past him because of his college level. He has ability, looking forward to seeing him.
  8. LD Caleb Jones. Fleet defender should play a feature role at this camp and in the rookie games. He struggled a year ago but there’s a player here.
  9. LD Jake Kulevich. Huge defender who played for the Manitoba Moose a year ago, he’s on an AHL contract and will probably slot in where Ben Betker did one year ago.
  10. LD William Lagesson. He could pass Jones between now and spring, the pro experience (SHL) one year ago bodes well. I’ve seen him at WJ’s and he was a mobile shutdown type, don’t know how much offense he’ll bring.
  11. LD Dmitri Samorukov. He’s a year away but there’s some buzz about this player. A two-way type who plays an intelligent game, Oilers may have one here.
  12. LD Jared Wilson. Played for RPI in college, he’s on an AHL contract and this will be our chance to see him for the first time.
  13. R Kailer Yamamoto. He turns 20 later this month and I believe he has an outstanding shot at playing substantial NHL games this coming season. If you look at the Oilers depth chart on the wings, a skill player like Yamamoto stands out in a big way.
  14. L Tyler Benson. I cannot recall a prospect in the Oilers’ system who has the kind of expectation gap that Benson is burdened with at this time. His numbers suggest we could be looking at a solid checking winger in a couple of years but I think the Oilers see him as being far more than a No. 3 left winger. It comes down to how many plays he can get to, once there he has terrific hands and the grit to win battles.
  15. LC Luke Esposito. He has been here before, played in Grand Rapids (31, 1-7-8) of the AHL one year ago. He’s the only tryout on the roster, related to Mark Messier and that’s the connection. He would be seeking an AHL deal I expect.
  16. L Joe Gambardella. I wrote about him yesterday, he has many of the things this organization lacks and his time is now.
  17. R Dave Gust. Recently signed to an AHL deal, he had a strong pro debut with the Condors (53, 13-11-24) and should play a major role during this rookie camp.
  18. RC Cameron Hebig. He’ll be the guy shooting pucks on net halfway through the anthem and that is going to get him a feature role in Bakersfield this winter.
  19. LC Colin Larkin. College man (Div III) has speed and defensive acumen but the offence (16, 0-2-2 in a late run with Bakersfield) is shy.
  20. R Kirill Maksimov. Another marksman who scored 34 in the OHL one year ago, if he was a year older I’d give him a chance to make the NHL roster based on the current depth chart. He should impact the rookie games.
  21. RC Cooper Marody. At this camp he’ll have a feature role, possibly lining up with Yamamoto and Benson. I imagine he’ll be a main story among the msm when writing about this camp.
  22. LC Ryan McLeod. He’s fast as lightning, honestly his speed is a little shocking. I read the scouting reports and look at the offense and wonder how he was still there at No. 40 overall. We’ll get a good look at him in the coming week.
  23. L Evan Polei. I’m a fan of this player, he has terrific hands and can score goals. Footspeed is the issue, if he plays with a strong center expect results during this camp.
  24. R Ostap Safin. He has a lot on the line in this camp, if Safin impresses it could punch his ticket to pro hockey and the Condors. He can score from a distance and has the kind of size (6.05, 192) NHL teams love to see in skill players.
  25. R Ryan Van Stralen. He comes from the Canadian college ranks (Carleton) and scored at a point per game clip with Wichita. On the other hand, he’s 25 in November.
  26. RC Tyler Vesel. Mistakenly listed as a LH center, Vesel has two-way skills and that should mean he gets plenty of playing time in this camp and then in California beginning October.
  27. L Nolan Vesey. Everything I’ve read about him screams tweener but the Oilers traded for and then signed him, so giving him 500 at-bats in the AHL is the right thing to do.

There were one dozen invites one year ago (including Trey Fix-Wolansky) but the club is running bare bones this time. It’ll fuel the “Katz isn’t spending money” panic, but another reasonable answer is that this is a quick rookie camp followed by a quick main camp followed by the flight to Cologne.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy and fun show today, it all starts at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Andy Benoit, Sports Illustrated. The NFL season kicks off with some talented birds (Falcons v. Eagles) playing smash mouth football tonight!
  • Eric Fawcett, Press Basketball. A preview of the NBA season, with emphasis on the Raptors and Lebron’s big move.
  • John Horn, Freelance Commentator, Reporter, Producer with ESPN, WTA, MLB Network, TSN. We’ll talk US Open.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Professor Q

hunter1909: I get the impression he’s about to get dealt from the Leafs post Tavares signing.

You know, when I mentioned this as a possibility back when the Tavares signing occurred (I’ve told them that I see the Leafs in a similar spot as Edmonton, with skilled players and stars but not enough space for them all, though not as much balance as Edmonton, and the Marleau signing in particular putting them in a jam), they have mostly just scoffed at and mocked me.

They believe that Tavares signed with a caveat that he would be playing on a line with Marner. I mean, truly believe this as being one of his stipulations. I have no idea why, nor what connection those two have (other than the Stromes, Marner, and McDavid growing up together, beside CuJo’s house; does not really connect Tavares with Marner though).

Regardless, Tavares is already signed, and I’m sure he wouldn’t be too upset if Toronto had to trade Marner away due to not having space and/or playing time for him (and need D).

OriginalPouzar

€√¥£€^$:
Is there anyone else going to the rookie game in Calgary on Sunday?Tickets are only $5.00.I don’t know why, but only basically lower bowl corner seats are being sold.Two of my co-workers are season ticket holders here so I asked if they had access to better seating; they don’t.Strange.

I was in Penticton last year and I really liked Maksimov, his shot is exceptional, and Lagesson and Gambardella also caught my eye.Looking forward to watching the young NHL D prospects, but also intrigued by Logan Day.

I am really excited to see what Benson looks like, as well as KY, Marody & McCleod.Should be an interesting game.However, being only the 3rd day everyone is on ice it will either be a gong show or quite revealing.

Its looking like i’ll be at the office for most of the weekend but I’ve confirmed with the team that they are streaming the game so I’ll be watching.

Of course, everyone wants to see Bouchard and Kailer but I’ll be keeping my eye on the likes of Lagesson, Benson, Maksimov, Samorukov and Marody.

jp

SwedishPoster,

All fair points. I’m just not seeing from the numbers that these guys are clearly superior scorers to McLeod, though they absolutely may be.

jp

Jaxon,

Clearly the scouts saw size, speed and decent boxcars.

And he certainly looks pedestrian by your adjusted metric, though I assume those making the picks are looking as much at traditional boxcars.

All I was really trying to say is that his offense is not the least bit out of line with tons of othe 2nd round forwards being drafted.

Sure there may be guys with a little more, but it’s not like he scored 30 pts and and was drafted based only on the size/speed. That would be Foudy, no?

€√¥£€^$

Is there anyone else going to the rookie game in Calgary on Sunday? Tickets are only $5.00. I don’t know why, but only basically lower bowl corner seats are being sold. Two of my co-workers are season ticket holders here so I asked if they had access to better seating; they don’t. Strange.

I was in Penticton last year and I really liked Maksimov, his shot is exceptional, and Lagesson and Gambardella also caught my eye. Looking forward to watching the young NHL D prospects, but also intrigued by Logan Day.

I am really excited to see what Benson looks like, as well as KY, Marody & McCleod. Should be an interesting game. However, being only the 3rd day everyone is on ice it will either be a gong show or quite revealing.

OriginalPouzar

OilSlickster:
OriginalPouzar,

There was an article out today that stated the expansion could likely happen 2021/22. After the potential lockout year. This was based on comments by Daly and Leiwicke earlier in the day.
https://www.king5.com/mobile/article/sports/nhl-may-push-back-timeline-for-bringing-team-to-seattle/281-591680438

Jaxon: Thanks for showing me that. I stand corrected. There is a risk.

Thanks.

OriginalPouzar

Gerta Rauss: You’re overlooking signing the PTOs,a waiver claim, or a trade that takes on salary-all of which could/would occur prior to day 1 of the season (and increase the LTIR cushion)

No I’m not – that is a different scenario. That is the scenario where the team is cap compliant on day 1 of the regular season and then places the player on LTIR. The closer to (but under) the cap, the larger the cushion.

We were speaking of the scenario where the team is over the cap and places the player on LTIR on the last day of training camp (not day 1 of the season) for compliance – that will decrease the cushion to go over the cap.

OriginalPouzar

Jaxon: Still seems to be on schedule for a 2020 start meaning as long as a player didn’t play 10 pro games last season they will not need to be protected. If it got pushed back a season then you wouldn’t want Bouchard getting to 10 games this fall but by the looks of things that won’t matter.

I’m not sure that 10 games played is the correct threshold.

The 10 games played is the threshold for burning a year of the ELC but not a year of accrual of services.

The threshold for that, at least as it relates to a year towards UFA status is 40 games on the roster.

Leon McMesstzky

OriginalPouzar,

There was an article out today that stated the expansion could likely happen 2021/22. After the potential lockout year. This was based on comments by Daly and Leiwicke earlier in the day.
https://www.king5.com/mobile/article/sports/nhl-may-push-back-timeline-for-bringing-team-to-seattle/281-591680438

SwedishPoster

jp:
Wilde,

As an aside, you mention higher production, younger players available – Thomas, Gustafsson, Olofsson, Hallander

They are all younger for sure, and I see the higher production with Thomas.

But what are you basing higher production for the Swedish guys on though? Vollman’s NHLE has SHL at .58 and OHL at .30, so basically 2:1. Not sure about the Allsvenskan, but presumably it’s well below the SHL (0.3-0.4?).

If the above is correct, McLeod still outscored all 3 Swedish players by a fair margin. (Olofsson and Hallinder were about 0.5 PPG in the Allsvenskan, Gustafssonwas about 0.25 PPG in the SHL)

Remember that the NHLe for shl and allsvenskan include older players coming over and guys taking a swing at the NHL afte one good year. Also in the case of allsvenskan the guys going straight to the NHL are a select few which messes up the stat, I think allsvenskan actually had a higher nhle than the SHL the other year since the guys going straight to the NHL are elite guys like OEL or David Pastrnak. Imo NHLe is pretty useless for the euro pro leagues, at least for teenagers. Guys splitting the season between juniors and the SHL sometimes have an NHLe discrepancy of up to 4 to 1 and beyond(and I am discounting the more ridiculous cases where guys in limited ice time gets one point in 17 games but is well above ppg in juniors) during the same year, that tells me there’s something really off with the stat. I like the age relative ones better though there are issues with those as well.

kgo

I’m welcoming myself back to this blog, my virtual sanctuary, after a long hard summer of farming….my overwhelming fear for this season is watching raw rookies, namely Yamamoto and the shiny new RHD flounder and sink our season…

I’d prefer to sink our season with vets and spare parts, whilst developing the rookies properly, and taking advantage of their slide contracts…

I have little hope for the 2018/19 campaign…but alas I will spend 200+ hours and 200+ dollars with my heart hitched to the bandwagon.

hunter1909

Lowetide: Marner is just about my favourite NHL player.

I get the impression he’s about to get dealt from the Leafs post Tavares signing.

Jaxon

€√¥£€^$:
Jaxon,

Latest news on Seattle:

https://www.king5.com/mobile/article/sports/nhl-may-push-back-timeline-for-bringing-team-to-seattle/281-591680438

Thanks for showing me that. I stand corrected. There is a risk.

Gerta Rauss

OriginalPouzar: Yes – its why using LTIR prior to day 1 of the regular season to get cap compliant is not the best use of the relief (cushion).

You’re overlooking signing the PTOs,a waiver claim, or a trade that takes on salary-all of which could/would occur prior to day 1 of the season (and increase the LTIR cushion)

Scungilli Slushy

Ryan:
OriginalPouzar,

Emmanuel Perry from Corsica thinks Faulk is better than any right shot d on our roster.

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations/

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations/

If he thinks Faulk is better than Larsson for a team I don’t like the way he gets the hockeys. To me if you’re a top player you play top players. If you can’t and you’re getting paid a lot I am not convinced the cap space is worth it, is an overall benefit that couldn’t be used differently to make the team stronger overall.

Points matter but only if they are out scoring and it’s not all in gravy time like Faulk.

Jaxon

OriginalPouzar: PunjabiOil:
With the increasing possibility that the Seattle expansion draft will be pushed one year further ahead, it suggests Bouchard should be sent back to the OHL.

Especially if he’s not going to meaningfully contribute this year.

John Shannon was on Oilers Now earlier this week and spoke about the Seattle expansion and gave no indication that it would be delayed, quite the opposite.

What’s the trigger for an “accrued season”? I assume its the same as accruing a season towards UFA which means 40 games on the roster.

Lots of runway.

Still seems to be on schedule for a 2020 start meaning as long as a player didn’t play 10 pro games last season they will not need to be protected. If it got pushed back a season then you wouldn’t want Bouchard getting to 10 games this fall but by the looks of things that won’t matter.

This timeline is still on track:
8/30: Final Environmental Impact Study on Seattle Center Arena published
8/30-9/13: FEIS potential appeal window
9/14: City of Seattle Committee meeting on Arena at Seattle Center transaction documents
9/17 or 9/24: City Council vote on Arena at Seattle Center transaction documents
10/2: NHL Seattle presentation to Board of Governors Executive Committee.
12/6-12/8: NHL Board of Governors to Vote on Expansion at Annual Florida Meeting.

Jaxon

jp: Wilde: Age should come up here, as well as options available. There were higher production, younger players on the board (Thomas, Gustafsson, Olofsson, Hallander).

McLeod was very much a scout’s selection; a translateable skills theory pick.

You don’t think he was a good pick at 40? Despite being ranked in the first round by essentially everyone who does draft rankings?

Sure, age is a factor, and absolutely a lot of the appeal with McLeod is that he’s big AND fast. But he also scores at a decent rate.

I’m a bit baffled by you calling McLeod a translatable skills theory pick, and by JT calling him shy offensively. Purely by numbers draft year >1 PPG in the OHL is very solid for a 2nd pick, pretty sure.

I’m with Wilde on this one. McLeod really hasn’t scored well so his speed and size are likely what the scouts saw. His 5-on-5 Primary Pts / 60 were well below most draft picks in the past 13 years since Crosby’s draft year. Adjusted for age and league, he ranked 47th this season among North American juniors (USHL, WHL, OHL, QMJHL). I had his projected 5v5 Primary Points at 14.8. He was about 30th among N. American forwards in 5v5 Pts/GP. I think he was the 11th highest N. American forward drafted.

Projected 5v5 Primary Pts of Other 2018 Draft picks (adjusted for Age, Era, League and TOI):
Andrei Svechnikov 38.80
Joel Farabee 32.23
Oliver Wahlstrom 28.79
Jonathan Gruden 27.62
Tristen Nielsen (last 39 GP) 24.93 not drafted or signed*
Filip Zadina 23.90
Serron Noel 23.70

McLeod’s comparables by this metric:
2013 Marc-Olivier Roy 14.892
2018 Cole Fonstad 14.868
2011 Mitch Holmberg 14.863
2018 Ryan McLeod 14.804
2007 C.J. Stretch 14.682
2009 Andrew Shaw 14.223
2014 Kevin Labanc 14.183
2007 Jordan Nolan 14.088
2010 Matthew Bissonnette 14.036
2006 James Sheppard 13.952
2005 Derek Dorsett 13.933
2009 Marcus Foligno 13.816
2014 Austin Glover 13.746
2014 Keanu Yamamoto 13.730
2017 Trey Fix-Wolansky 13.671
2011 Phillip Danault 13.427
2016 Riley Woods 13.392
2010 Cody Beach 13.385
2006 Milan Lucic 13.366

That list doesn’t fill one with confidence. Most of these players never made the NHL full time or we’ve only heard of as camp invites and AHL signings. I also removed about 180 names that nobody has ever heard of. And it’s not like McLeod was getting top minutes so he wasn’t facing toughest competition either. None of it bodes well for his production.

The only caveat I’d put on that is that maybe scouts saw enough and maybe he was being overshadowed by playing on the same team as his big brother. Maybe he deferred to his brother too much and didn’t take control of the team as he might have in another situation. I don’t know. It does make McLeod’s upcoming season an interesting one to watch.

Glovjuice

hunter1909:
I seem to have discovered this blog’s Kryptonite:

mentioning Mitch Marner.

The Leafs might accept Nurse AND one of Yamo or Puli.

hunter1909

I seem to have discovered this blog’s Kryptonite:

mentioning Mitch Marner.

Richard S.S.

The 2016/17 didn’t exist in a vacuum. The way Players get slagged on this site, it must be meaningless.
The 2nd Line did not score. Just some semblance or better of Regular Season numbers will easily put the Oilers into the next round – maybe a game or two before Sekera get hurt – does he still get hurt?
The blatant anti-Oiler Officiating cost the Oiler more than one game, if not all. Does just a little bit fairer Officiating get the Oilers into the next round? Change one decision and it does – possibly before Sekera got hurt.

The Goaltending was basically good enough to go all the way. The Defense was basically good enough to go all the way. The Offense was basically good enough to go all the way. Players that good don’t disappear, they always come back, it’s what people always do, even you.

Glovjuice

Melvis,

Agreed, I was mostly doing the same – rambling on about music and fun through your post.

Jaxon

jtblack: Oilman99:
Your idea that Benson will be a checking winger is selling him short. The guy has the hockey smarts and skills to play higher. The idea that he is too slow seems questionable, the type of injuries he had hampered his skating, coming to camp fully healthy, and able practice all summer,it wil be interesting to see how much his speed has increased.

Or not.

Benson has never had good speed or good overall skating ability. The fact that he is healthy is great news, but it’s not going to turn him into a Good Skater.

Benson’s top attributes are:

1) Overall hockey sense
2) Passing Ability

We Wait.

Or not. Benson’s skating may not be elite but from the scouting reports I’ve read, it has always been solid.

McKeen’s: “Although not a game-breaker when it comes to speed, he has above-average acceleration and ability to create separation .. This comes from a powerful lower body that produces a strong and stable stride. His power aids in fending off checkers .. Continues to push the pace especially when carrying the puck; often has good solo efforts in transition .. Uses his body well to guard and hold off defenders and keep them on his back and away from the puck .. This flows from strong, precise edge work where more lower body strength is obvious .. Stops and starts make him slippery and tough to defend, especially off the wall, powers through his edges to drive his way to the net and create scoring chances.”

Ben Kerr at Last Word on Sports: “Tyler Benson has shown to be a strong skater and plays a very gritty and physical game. He has very good speed and quick acceleration which helps him to get in quickly on the forecheck and force defenders to make plays quickly or be plastered into the boards. When the puck does get turned over, he gets himself into good position to let go a strong wrist shot or a blistering one-timer. He has a great first step, which helps him to get to loose pucks, or to transition quickly when a teammate creates a turnover in his own zone, creating breakaways and odd-man rushes. Benson has a powerful stride which allows him to fight through checks and get to the front of the net. His agility and edge work are also good, with the ability to maneouver through traffic.”

Future Considerations: “He has a strong lower half that allows him to generate healthy amounts of speed. He is very sound in the fundamental areas of the game that require a mix of power and agility”

And as mentioned by others, I doubt many scouts have ever seen him skate completely healthy. It’s not unreasonable that he may have gained a few steps just from being healthy. Benson is going to be one of my favourites to watch this month.

jp

Wilde,

As an aside, you mention higher production, younger players available – Thomas, Gustafsson, Olofsson, Hallander

They are all younger for sure, and I see the higher production with Thomas.

But what are you basing higher production for the Swedish guys on though? Vollman’s NHLE has SHL at .58 and OHL at .30, so basically 2:1. Not sure about the Allsvenskan, but presumably it’s well below the SHL (0.3-0.4?).

If the above is correct, McLeod still outscored all 3 Swedish players by a fair margin. (Olofsson and Hallinder were about 0.5 PPG in the Allsvenskan, Gustafsson was about 0.25 PPG in the SHL)

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965:
hunter1909,

Thanks

Is 1) correct for sure? Seems like a rather ridiculous stipulation.

Yes – its why using LTIR prior to day 1 of the regular season to get cap compliant is not the best use of the relief (cushion).

OriginalPouzar

PunjabiOil:
With the increasing possibility that the Seattle expansion draft will be pushed one year further ahead, it suggests Bouchard should be sent back to the OHL.

Especially if he’s not going to meaningfully contribute this year.

John Shannon was on Oilers Now earlier this week and spoke about the Seattle expansion and gave no indication that it would be delayed, quite the opposite.

What’s the trigger for an “accrued season”? I assume its the same as accruing a season towards UFA which means 40 games on the roster.

Lots of runway.

Ryan

russ99: Good thread on twitter tonight why defending the blueline isn’t the best play for all D.

Again, just because players don’t do what is assumed would give them higher shot metrics isn’t the only way to play or be succesful.

Why defend the blue line when you’ve got a chance for a Russell reset, off the glass and out, or to flop ineffectively in the slot ostensibly to block a shot?

OriginalPouzar

Ryan:
OriginalPouzar,

Emmanuel Perry from Corsica thinks Faulk is better than any right shot d on our roster.

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations/

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations/

Ryan:
Ryan,

He also thinks that a $9.5 m dollar bottom pairing of Russell and Sekera would be the ninth best bottom pairing in the league.

Well, I disagree with Emmanuel Perry.

jp

Wilde: Age should come up here, as well as options available. There were higher production, younger players on the board (Thomas, Gustafsson, Olofsson, Hallander).

McLeod was very much a scout’s selection; a translateable skills theory pick.

You don’t think he was a good pick at 40? Despite being ranked in the first round by essentially everyone who does draft rankings?

Sure, age is a factor, and absolutely a lot of the appeal with McLeod is that he’s big AND fast. But he also scores at a decent rate.

I’m a bit baffled by you calling McLeod a translatable skills theory pick, and by JT calling him shy offensively. Purely by numbers draft year >1 PPG in the OHL is very solid for a 2nd pick, pretty sure.

russ99

godot10: I disagree completely with you about who was carrying who.Sekera was carrying Russell, like he carried everyone when he was healthy.And Nurse was carrying Russell last year when they were paired together.

Russell is incapable of carrying anyone.Because he refuses to defense the blue line and retreats all the time, because of his non-standard style of D, he is a horrible candidate to pair with a rookie.

Good thread on twitter tonight why defending the blueline isn’t the best play for all D.

Again, just because players don’t do what is assumed would give them higher shot metrics isn’t the only way to play or be succesful.

Melvis

Glovjuice,

I’m still debating taking in an Oct. Oiler game, but every time I consider a couple of lower bowl tickets and the travel expenses, 40 below in Jan. and a monthly rental somewhere around the Med in that time period seems to get in the way. I don’t have my priorities straightened out yet;-)

Mostly I was taking the piss about the drooling stoner. I didn’t actually think anyone would respond.

Anyway, it’s a cool notion. I’ll post if I spring for tickets.

godot10

The Oilers can’t afford Marner. (Lucic, Russell, have that cap space) Marner is going to get $8.5 million or more.

JimmyV1965

hunter1909,

Thanks

OriginalPouzar: They could sign Nurse now and go over the cap and then put Sekera on LTIR on the last day of camp to get relief and be cap compliant.The amount of LTIR cushion that a team has is determined at the time the player is put on LTIR.They will not put Sekera on LTIR prior to Nurse signing until the end of camp – it would reduce the relief.

The Oilers could sign Nurse now and go over the cap and then put Sekera on LTIR on the last day of camp and this would serve to get them cap compliant for day 1. Using LTIR in the off-season (i.e. prior to the 1st day of the season) in this manner would reduce the ultimate amount of the LTIR cushion (i.e. the amount the team could go over the cap).

For example:

1) if the Oilers sign Nurse to a longer term deal now that takes them to $81M, they could put Sekera on LTIR on the last day of camp and be compliant but Sekera is “deemed replaced” and they will not be able to go above the $81M

2) if they sign Nurse to a bridge and the total cap is $79M ($500K under the cap), they can put Sekera on LTIR on day 1 of the regular season and then would be able to go over the cap up to $84.5M (the $5.5M minus the $500K of cap space they had).

Also, remember, in the first case and in the second case if they do indeed use the LTIR cushion, the team will be over the adjusted accrual limit so will not be accruing any cap space throughout the year and will not be able to add any player later in the year without disposing of equal cap and would also have to make a massive disposition if Sekera is deemed ready to play this year and is activated.

Is 1) correct for sure? Seems like a rather ridiculous stipulation.

pts2pndr

Wilde: Age should come up here, as well as options available. There were higher production, younger players on the board (Thomas, Gustafsson, Olofsson, Hallander).

McLeod was very much a scout’s selection; a translateable skills theory pick.

That could be true but like size you can’t teach speed! A number of NHL players took a couple of years at the nhl level for their hands to catch up to their feet.

PunjabiOil

With the increasing possibility that the Seattle expansion draft will be pushed one year further ahead, it suggests Bouchard should be sent back to the OHL.

Especially if he’s not going to meaningfully contribute this year.

JJS

“Speed is like size’

I don’t necessarily agree as those with speed use it every chance they get. Whereas size is only effective when applied appropriately.

What McLeod needs is someone to benefit from the open ice he creates. It may not result in direct points but will certainly tilt the ice.

And Todd Marchant was a great Oiler. Some of my favourite teams…

Ryan

Ryan,

He also thinks that a $9.5 m dollar bottom pairing of Russell and Sekera would be the ninth best bottom pairing in the league.

Ryan
Wilde

Scungilli Slushy,

It’s tough, man. I think you get value back because of the things he has that you’ve said. Clear wins are definitely possible.

Not by Chiarelli, though. Suspect he won’t or can’t do something like that anymore. I do think though if the Oilers are competing he makes a medium size deal at the deadline and then another after elimination. Either the 19 or 20 first rounder or Klefbom as major pieces, Strome and more picks otherwise.

Wilde

Scungilli Slushy: I can see their interest.

Me too, I’ve come to like the pick.

I think, though, he’s actually more boom-or-bust and lower percentage than the guys I mentioned.

Love his player identity, though. I think burners with brains are very intimidating in their own way. He’d definitely be on my draft board, and I like him as a pet-prospect because I enjoy unique players who you don’t have to see their number to know who has the puck.

He’s also a quick delivery in informing us who he is. Going into last year, he was supposed to blow up and go top-15. That’s not based on the scouts loving his skillset, either, that’s just what”s possible for a guy whose birthday was in September and had just put up ~.65 PPG in draft year minus-one.

What that means is we’re looking at a checker if he’s not devouring the OHL by mid-winter, I’d say. You can easily inform yourself of how many more skill left-shot forwards you need to look for in the draft based on how old he’ll be by next June.

Glovjuice

Melvis:
Is there a carry out service at Roger’s Place? I don’t mean food. I mean warm body safely transported back to hotel room.

I’m thinking of a celebratory act on Oct. 18 for the Boston game. The one for which I nibble on the majoun before stubbing out the blunt out front just prior to getting lost looking for my seat.

This is in keeping with a Pink Floyd concert once. The Wall in surround sound in a symphony venue. I fell asleep about 15 minutes in, and woke up after a sharp jab to the ribs when everyone was filing out.

What the hell? Where am I?

Granted, Connor provides a lot more bang for the buck, so I’ll probably limit the snooze and substitute a bit of drool now and again.

Hey! Anybody up for the meet and greet?

I kid, sort of;-)

I’m in – turn 48 on the 18th of October – had a great experience at The Wall show in Van. Back when me and the boys celebrated our 40th (lots and lots of stuff consumed – soon to be legal). Was more “aware” at the Edmonton show. Ps – best band ever, by the way. Followed closely by The Beatles, Sabbath, and Rush (rush is in my top five but not objectively if I was listing a top four as a critic).

Scungilli Slushy

Wilde: I just think you’re gaining talent in the trade and that’s llamas from heaven.

Also, Marner is way more of a sure thing than our two, as well as having just put up a top-2 in the league powerplay performance. If Marner wasn’t the man-advantage MVP last year, it was Claude Giroux and then him.

Marner pushing down 98 and 56 would be /good/ for them, not bad. You could have the three centres playing centre by the trade deadline after calling up Yamamoto at Christmas break.

It’s obviously not a trade that happens though because Nurse isn’t a RHD.

I was joking. Marner is their best player IMO. I like him better than Matthews. I’d do it maybe multi player. Marner is less a rare bird than Nurse to me. There are more smallish skill wingers than huge blazing fast very tough top 4 young D. Nurse may lack offensive instincts but I think in his prime he’ll be a force at the primary part of the job. Chara light. Especially as the league loses truculant players coming in. It would have to be a clear win for the Oilers.

Wilde

Wilde,

This is also why I was down for a Wahlstrom pick. Having 3 RW prospects at that level would be downright nasty.

Scungilli Slushy

Wilde: Age should come up here, as well as options available. There were higher production, younger players on the board (Thomas, Gustafsson, Olofsson, Hallander).

McLeod was very much a scout’s selection; a translateable skills theory pick.

A guy that can skate with Connor, knows 200 ft and has skill and size, if he can’t make it as a centre. With his skill set he’s got a great chance at making the NHL at some capacity which is a stretch even for second rounders. I can see their interest.

Wilde

Scungilli Slushy: Of course I would. The Oilers trade from a position of weakness (nobody to replace Nurse at LD at an established top 4 level) for another a very young RW when they have 2 quality young guys already, both possibly on the roster this season. It is the Oilers way.

I just think you’re gaining talent in the trade and that’s llamas from heaven.

Also, Marner is way more of a sure thing than our two, as well as having just put up a top-2 in the league powerplay performance. If Marner wasn’t the man-advantage MVP last year, it was Claude Giroux and then him.

Marner pushing down 98 and 56 would be /good/ for them, not bad. You could have the three centres playing centre by the trade deadline after calling up Yamamoto at Christmas break.

It’s obviously not a trade that happens though because Nurse isn’t a RHD.

Wilde

jp: Good Lord, he had more points that 4 of the 7 CHL forwards drafted ahead of him (2 of those in the top 15). Tons of guys around 1PPG in their draft years turn into good NHLers.

Also, I’d be A-OK if we drafted Todd Marchant at no. 40.

Age should come up here, as well as options available. There were higher production, younger players on the board (Thomas, Gustafsson, Olofsson, Hallander).

McLeod was very much a scout’s selection; a translateable skills theory pick.

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: Rieder has the potential to be a pretty important player – a middle six forward with plus PK – I’ll take it.

Brodziak is a 4th line center and PK guy so, you are right – not material.At the same time, he had a fantastic season last year, elite on the PK, put up middle 6 point scoring and moved up the lineup for 16 games after the trade deadline to produce at phenomenal scoring rates with Berglund and Steen.

This biggest additions to this team might very well be Trent Yawney and Manny Viverios!

If Brodziak plays as well as last year it’s a significant addition. The 4th line sawing off and not bleeding goals is key. Solid 3/4 lines is what makes teams strong. Especially if those guys make a solid PK and don’t have to be sheltered heavily. They don’t need to score as much as not get outscored. Much easier on the coaches.

Scungilli Slushy

Wilde: Wait

You guys wouldn’t do this??

Of course I would. The Oilers trade from a position of weakness (nobody to replace Nurse at LD at an established top 4 level) for another a very young RW when they have 2 quality young guys already, both possibly on the roster this season. It is the Oilers way.