Morning Rushes

To my eye, the best players for Edmonton in the rookie game yesterday were (in order) Caleb Jones, Tyler Benson, Evan Bouchard and Ethan Bear. History tells us prospects don’t develop in a straight line and Jones may recover all the way back to Bear and that’s several miles. Warning: It was a rookie game, Jones is 21 and the real test comes in main camp. Still, a very nice beginning for all four men. The final score was not indicative of the overall game, certainly through the first 30 minutes.

RE SERIES BEGINS

My article this morning for The Athletic begins the RE series. It’s in a different format this year (five or six posts instead of 25) and today I cover Connor McDavid, RNH, Ty Rattie and Kailer Yamamoto’s boxcars. I will post the final numbers after the series is completed at The Athletic.

The Athletic made some big additions last week, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman joining the Edmonton staff. Daniel, Jonathan Willis, Minnia Feng, Pat McLean and me will deliver prose all winter long and there will be tons via the national desk from Tyler Dellow, Corey Pronman and Dom Luszczysyn. Special offer is here, less than $4 a month! Also, don’t forget to join us later this month (September 24, The Rec Room south side) for a get together and general merriment. I’m thrilled to be part of this group, hope you join us.

COMMENTS ON YESTERDAY’S GAME

  • L Tyler Benson: Edmonton’s best forward in my opinion, he was physical and creative. He should have had at least two assists (he had one) on merit and Oilers fans are buzzing about him for the first time since he was drafted. His early pass to Vesel was expert, the one to Jones was filthy. Lost some teeth in an exchange with Parsons, he’s had worse injuries and stuck it out, expect we’ll see him again this week.
  • RD Ethan Bear: He played extremely well early, headmanning the puck expertly and looking completely at ease with and without the puck. The coverage got the better of him in the second period, but he looks leaner and faster this year.
  • RD Evan Bouchard: Considering age, experience and pressure (fans were watching closely), I thought he was quality. A wonderful passer, he’s going to set free every forward with 10 fingers and toes on a breakaway in whatever league he plays in. I lost count of the great damned passes. He’ll need to hurry up the decision making and coverage needs to tighten but these are all things people who lack experience must endure on the way to knowledge and experience.
  • RD Logan Day: Like the entire team, he showed well early but faded from there. Got lost a little in the rotation when his partner (Wilson) was off for fighting, he was in chase mode too often during the game.
  • LC Luke Esposito: I noticed him on the back check mostly, and on the penalty kill. I can’t recall a moment where he looked either fabulous or poor. That’s a good thing.
  • L Joe Gambardella: He got stopped stone cold on a breakaway, won a fight against a giant and was moved off the top line mid-game. He was poor in one sequence early in the second period, fought the puck while being all by his lonesome and turned it over eventually. Fed Yamamoto on a turnover in the offensive zone for the former Spokane Chiefs winger’s best chance.
  • L Cameron Hebig: I noticed his aggressiveness on the forecheck early, he shot the puck from distance a couple of times but he’ll need to do more in order to get noticed.
  • LD Caleb Jones: What a difference a year makes! I know this is just the first game of rookie camp, but Jones was textbook for most of this game and you have to feel good for him after last year’s struggles. He was fantastic, scored a stunningly beautiful goal.
  • LC Colin Larkin: He had a massive chance early, winning the faceoff and then driving to the net to get a stick on Logan Day’s shot. He was noticeable on the PK and had a nice look on a Maksimov dish later on.
  • R Kirill Maksimov: I thought he played very well for a scorer on a checking line. His real opportunities were sparse (as you would imagine) but he showed good speed and shot the puck whenever the opportunity arose. I sincerely hope they play him with a skill center in the next game.
  • RC Cooper Marody: He had a fine game, scoring a goal (and possibly tipping Bouchard’s goal), drawing a power play and working the puck into promising offensive situations. We’ll need to see it into the second week of full training camp but he delivered on some pretty high expectations going into the game.
  • LC Ryan McLeod: An early game fly-by caught my eye and he didn’t do a lot noticeable for some time in the game. Later on, especially during a power play, I saw his real skill shine through. He’s a wonderful skater but needs to get involved more. On his best offensive chance he was from me to you on a two on one and smoked it high and wide. Won a faceoff clean for a Caleb Jones chance in the third period.
  • L Evan Polei: He played a good game in my opinion, boots are still a little slow but he made skill plays when the chance emerged. I have always liked this player, hope he keeps working, he doesn’t need to improve much to have a real chance imo.
  • LD Dmitri Samorukov: I thought he was the weakest link among defenders, his errant pass leading directly to the first goal. After that he looked betwixt and between, and one wonders how long he’ll hang around main camp. I remain strong on his possible future.
  • G Stuart Skinner: He wasn’t sharp, the big tell he appeared to lose the puck momentarily on the early second period wraparound goal against. It’s the first game, he has a long way to go. It’ll be interesting to see if he gets more playing time during the rookie camp.
  • R Tyler Vesel: He was robbed early, middle and late. Part of that is because Vesel isn’t a fabulous scorer but on the first and third chances he was a little unlucky. Although he’s an older prospect, I think he helped himself with this game.
  • L Nolan Vesey: He got into a fight and worked the mid-section, a fascinating ploy and something I don’t recall seeing in observing 50 years of hockey. Made a nice squeeze play along the boards seconds before Marody’s goal. We’ll need to see more but he got noticed.
  • G Dylan Wells: He was brought in to calm the waters but got beat from a bad angle on one goal (I think he was the victim of a tremendous tip on the first one). Nothing to pin on him the game was long gone before he arrived.
  • LD Jared Wilson: He won the fight but lost the war. His decision making with the puck led to a goal against and he looked slow for this level. I wonder how much these guys worked on Saturday, seemed as though the air left the tires mid-game.
  • R Kailer Yamamoto: Forechecked like a demon as always, had some great looks and got robbed point blank by Tyler Parsons. Made a deft pass to get the second assist on the Caleb Jones goal, and a nice drop pass to Marody for a chance. A good start to a massive training camp for this player.

DARNELL NURSE

He isn’t signed. It’s very late. I don’t have an answer. I don’t blame Nurse for not showing up without a contract, and we don’t know the gap between ask and offer. We do know the depth chart without Nurse:

  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Kris Russell—Matt Benning
  • Jakub Jerabek—Ethan Bear/Evan Bouchard
  • Kevin Gravel/Jason Garrison

Nurse isn’t going to win the Norris but he’s an NHL defenseman who can play top 4 minutes. Puck IQ’s binning shows Nurse played well against elites a year ago:

He’s damned near 50 percent against elites, the goal share was 56 percent! Plus, he tied with Adam Larsson this past season in percentage of time on ice against elites. Here’s what the same chart looked like in 2016-17 (this is all Puck IQ):

Nurse is up across the board year over year. Edmonton doesn’t have a lot of wiggle room here, beyond closing the gap between ask and offer. This is a huge season for the team, distractions have to be kept at a minimum. As of this week, it’s a distraction.

CERTAIN OILERS

  • The only way this list goes to 18 is a Nurse holdout (or another injury). I’m not going to remove him from this list because it makes no sense to do it. Nurse has very little control in this situation, if he holds out all year the two sides return with the same equation one year from now. I won’t guarantee it gets done, or that a trade may be the final result, but this thing is miles from being a bridge too far.

UNCERTAIN OILERS

  • Nurse unsigned brings a few names from this category into the mix.
  • I moved Jason Garrison up from the distant bells and all of Gravel, Bouchard, Bear, Lowe and even Stanton will have a better chance of making the team if Nurse isn’t in training camp.

DISTANT BELLS

  • Two players on this list (Benson, Jones) played very well yesterday and sometimes that means a real step forward. We’ll see. Both players impacted the game enough for us to say they’ll be in the mix for NHL preseason games and we’ll see from there.

KEEP YOUR POWDER DRY

The Pacioretty deal will be the subject of much discussion today, for the Oilers it is one more mountain to climb. I’m onside with management’s summer of keeping their powder dry and this is part of the plan. The Oilers improvement is going to come from names like Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and others. Edmonton isn’t as close to winning Stanley as Vegas, that’s a reality.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A full boat today as we reach a major week in the sports calendar. At 10 this morning, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Andy McNamara, TSN4Downs. The Cleveland Browns are undefeated!
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Pacioretty trade, Nurse situation.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Eskimos win a big game, Nurse contract.
  • Jason Rogers, Japers Rink. The Capitals and the Metro.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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133 Responses to "Morning Rushes"

  1. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – LT says: “Edmonton isn’t as close to winning Stanley as Vegas, that’s a reality”

    – Last year Vegas wasn’t as close to winning Stanley as OIL, that’s a reality

    – Recency bias + 12-14 players having career years.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – LT says: “Edmonton isn’t as close to winning Stanley as Vegas, that’s a reality”

    – Last year Vegas wasn’t as close to winning Stanley as OIL, that’s a reality

    – Recency bias + 12-14 players having career years.

    The good thing for the Oilers is that if they stay the course we could be talking about a deep run this time next year. JP, KY, Evan Bouchard, maybe Benson and Bear, many of these men will hopefully represent value deals in 2019-20. This was a tough summer, and the team will probably be in a race for that final spot right up to the end, but the bleeding is over.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    I agree that Jones had a very nice game last night but I’m not going to read too much in to it. If I recall correctly, he was very impressive in the Penticton tournament last year, much moreso than Bear, and went in to the season looking to be ahead of Bear as far as NHL-readiness goes. It didn’t work out that way for Jones. Good arrow yesterday afternoon though.

  4. leadfarmer says:

    I think we will wait until day 1 of the season to see a Nurse contract. They will use some of that Sekera cap on him.

    And I stand by my long standing prediction that both Bear and Jones make it with Bear topping out a little higher than Jones. Bear will grow into a second pair second pp qb and Jones will be a good 3rd pair. Modern defensemen with modern defensemen attributes

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    I said I wouldn’t worry about Nurse not signing until the 2nd full week of September – well, here we are.

    Training camp is important and we need Nurse at full speed on October 6 which, to me, means we need him in training camp on Day 1. Ok, fine, I’ll take day 3 but he’s got to be there.

    I am hopeful pen gets put to paper prior to Friday.

  6. 66 hertz rental says:

    “he was from me to you on a two on one and smoked it high and wide”

    Quality writing will always bring me back to this site Mr LT

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    I agree generally with the assessment of the players in the game yesterday.

    I wasn’t quite as impressed with Bouchard as you (and most others) seem to be but, yes, then man can pass the puck.

    Speaking of passing, absolutely Bear was on another level last night that most others (as he should be given his year of pro and 18 NHL games). We knew he could pass the puck but he showed better wheels and better patience with the puck.

    I though Yamamoto was underwhelming with the puck but good without the puck (i.e. the tenacity on the forecheck).

    Benson was the best forward by far – 3 beautiful little passes to send guys in alone. He looked great on the half wall on the one PP as well. We also saw the work ethic and 2-way play that we’ve heard and read about. I recall one play where his pass in the offensive zone was broken up and the play was going the other way. He got on his horse and backchecked through the neutral zone to the far boards and angled the flame player off – showed nice wheels and plus 2-way play.

    McLeon looked like he did in the Summer Showcase game I saw – a couple bursts of the wheels but generally very quiet.

    Maksimov was similar but he did have a couple nice rushes – I hope he gets a move up the lineup in one of the next two games.

    Hebig didn’t show much to me.

  8. jm363561 says:

    Lowetide,

    2021 IMHO. We still need one more lottery pick, a new coach, (and Talbot 2016.17 vintage). It is worth comparing the Oilers with, say, Winnipeg, Mano a Mano. Maybe three Oilers would make the Jets stronger.
    Go Tyler Benson. Did not watch the game but loved reading about his performance.

  9. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Great piece by Joe Smith in The Athletic about how Barb Underhill is turning all of Tampa’s players into elite skaters:

    https://theathletic.com/347334/2018/05/09/the-woman-behind-some-of-the-nhls-fastest-teams/

  10. dustrock says:

    Not sure about McLeod. Could be in the long list of players with all of the talent in the world, but no killer instinct. Very early I realize.

  11. bcoil says:

    I think Nurse’s Agent is the problem .He is trying to look like Walsh light the tough guy in an effort to attract more players .Nurse would be better served to get a new agent there are many good ones out there that put the player first and not their own reputation .

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve been excited to watch the re-match with the flames on Wed in Red Deer but just realized they play tomorrow night against Nait/MacEwan. I guess that makes sense as they need to have it all finished up before main camp on Friday.

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Great piece by Joe Smith in The Athletic about how Barb Underhill is turning all of Tampa’s players into elite skaters:

    https://theathletic.com/347334/2018/05/09/the-woman-behind-some-of-the-nhls-fastest-teams/

    Here’s a key take away from that piece:

    Point wasn’t known for his speed when he was picked in the third round of the 2014 NHL draft. Three years later, the 5-foot-10 forward came within a tenth of a second of beating Connor McDavid in the fastest skater competition at the All-Star Game. Point tormented the Bruins’ top line with a ferocious forecheck as the best player in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

    “He’s gone from average (skater) to elite,” Lightning scouting director Al Murray said.

    “From acceptable to exceptional,” said Tim Hunter, Point’s junior coach in Moose Jaw.

    Not only can skating be improved, it can be improved substantially by players who skate well enough to be in the NHL.

  14. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – F$ck it: I signed up for the Athletic: not that I don’t have enough time-waster/diversion to fill my De minimus spare time…At least LT gets another reader:

    – might change my nic though if there is a comments section to DSF_Cassandra_Chaichi

  15. Boil-in-the-Oil says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Hey Chiarelli . . .

    GET NURSE SIGNED PRIOR TO CAMP! Get it done.

  16. John Chambers says:

    I think the Habs got themselves a good deal. They’re closer to Jack Hughes now, got a prospect who can play Centre, and still have a decent LW to slot in.

    Vegas has already traded their 2018 1st, one of their inaugural draft 1st’s, and several other 2nd’s and 3’rds. Their prospect pool is pitiful – the plan must be to continually attract veterans and free agents, although I foresee some painful seasons for them ahead.

  17. ArmchairGM says:

    You’re missing Jerabek – again – on your “depth chart without Nurse”. Adding him in makes things look better.

  18. Spydyr says:

    Lowetide,

    Are you sure the bleeding is over? This defensive depth chart you posted without Nurse looks like it will be bleeding goals all season. Kris Russell—Matt Benning second pairing? That would not even be an acceptable third pairing on a team with good defensive depth.

    Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
    Kris Russell—Matt Benning
    Kevin Gravel—Ethan Bear/Evan Bouchard
    Jason Garrison

  19. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – F$ck it: I signed up for the Athletic: not that I don’t have enough time-waster/diversion to fill my De minimus spare time…At least LT gets another reader:

    – might change my nic though if there is a comments section to DSF_Cassandra_Chaichi

    Lol!

  20. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here’s a key take away from that piece:

    Point wasn’t known for his speed when he was picked in the third round of the 2014 NHL draft. Three years later, the 5-foot-10 forward came within a tenth of a second of beating Connor McDavid in the fastest skater competition at the All-Star Game. Point tormented the Bruins’ top line with a ferocious forecheck as the best player in the Eastern Conference semifinals.


    “He’s gone from average (skater) to elite,” Lightning scouting director Al Murray said.

    “From acceptable to exceptional,” said Tim Hunter, Point’s junior coach in Moose Jaw.

    Not only can skating be improved, it can be improved substantially by players who skate well enough to be in the NHL.

    With the help of a world class coach,
    That’s my take on the article.
    In other news: Drake Cagguila just landed his first triple Salchow

  21. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer:
    I think we will wait until day 1 of the season to see a Nurse contract.They will use some of that Sekera cap on him.

    And I stand by my long standing prediction that both Bear and Jones make it with Bear topping out a little higher than Jones.Bear will grow into a second pair second pp qb and Jones will be a good 3rd pair.Modern defensemen with modern defensemen attributes

    20/21
    Klefbom – Larrson.
    Nurse – Bouchard.
    Jones – Bear.
    That would be a helluva feather for Oiler scouts everywhere
    Woodcroft’s ability to develop NHL players is officially under the microscope.
    Dave Manson come on down

  22. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador: With the help of a world class coach,
    That’s my take on the article.
    In other news: Drake Cagguila just landed his first triple Salchow

    If NHL teams aren’t hiring World Class coaches for their $70MM rosters I don’t know if they know what they are doing.

  23. tileguy says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I also thought Yamamoto was underwhelming, and as far as being tenacious on the for check, we have a guy like that already, his name being Caggiula, what we need is a goal scorer. Yamo needs seasoning in the AHL to learn how to play agaist men.

  24. godot10 says:

    bcoil:
    I think Nurse’s Agent is the problem .He is trying to look like Walsh light the tough guy in an effort to attract more players .Nurse would be better served to get a new agent there are many good ones out there that put the player first and not their own reputation .

    Theodore, Nurse, and Morrisey are all in the same boat…each waiting for the other to make a deal. Calgary moved first, locking up Hanifin long term.

    The Oilers are treating Nurse like he is a Russian or something. Everyone else gets long term deals but he doesn’t. In two respects, as a Oiler first round pick, and secondly as a D.

  25. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If NHL teams aren’t hiring World Class coaches for their $70MM rosters I don’t know if they know what they are doing.

    [Ron Howard]They didn’t know what they were doing. [/Ron Howard]

    Jim Benning: I’ve made a terrible mistake.

  26. PennersPancakes says:

    Spydyr: Kris Russell—Matt Benning second pairing? That would not even be an acceptable third pairing on a team with good defensive depth.

    Yeah if that’s the second pairing I don’t have much faith but that’s a perfectly fine and reasonable third pairing. How many teams have a third pairing that would be better than that?

  27. defmn says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If NHL teams aren’t hiring World Class coaches for their $70MM rosters I don’t know if they know what they are doing.

    This can’t be said too often.

  28. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If NHL teams aren’t hiring World Class coaches for their $70MM rosters I don’t know if they know what they are doing.

    Years of tradition unhampered by progress! Kinder way to say the same thing. They also see prospects as a renewable resource.

  29. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If NHL teams aren’t hiring World Class coaches for their $70MM rosters I don’t know if they know what they are doing.

    Not every player is capable of making significant increases to their skating.

  30. Pescador says:

    dustrock: [Ron Howard]They didn’t know what they were doing. [/Ron Howard]

    Jim Benning: I’ve made a terrible mistake.

    These pretzels are MAKING ME THIRSTY!!!
    Kosmo Kramer

  31. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If NHL teams aren’t hiring World Class coaches for their $70MM rosters I don’t know if they know what they are doing.

    No Kidding,
    It’s frustrating that the Oilers don’t behave more like a ruthless Corporation when staffing their front office & coaches.
    Hell, they rarely hold interviews,
    Find someone who is killing it somewhere else & Unabashedly headhunt them.

  32. Bruce McCurdy says:

    I remember around 2005 when the Oilers sent recent draft picks Rob Schremp and Zack Stortini to skating coach Liane Davis for personal training. The buzz was that Stortini busted his tail to improve himself & Schremp really didn’t.

    Wound up that the third-round pick got 250 NHL games and the first-rounder barely made it to 100.

    RELATED: You can lead a horse to water…

  33. Side says:

    Speaking of skating and training and coaches…

    I always thought the David Pelletier hiring to be the Oilers skating coach was interesting. I’m curious how often he works with the players, though? Has anyone even heard of experiences the players had with David?

    I’m actually kind of surprised these specialty coaches seem to be catching on (or maybe they have always been present, I just have been ignorant to it). I would think there would be specialty coaches for all aspects of the game, similarly to how mixed martial artists work with multiple specialists in different practices to hone their game.

  34. JustWatt says:

    Max Pacioretti just signed an extension for 4 years/$7 million per.

  35. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    So… Vegas re-ups Pacioretty for four years at $7M AAV.
    Huh… sounds like a pretty good bargain if you ask me… would definately rather have him at $7M than Lucic at $6M…

    EDIT: JUSTWATT beat me to it… not like it was a race or anything…
    ….or WAS it??? (X-files theme music starts)

  36. Westchester Oil says:

    John Chambers:
    I think the Habs got themselves a good deal. They’re closer to Jack Hughes now, got a prospect who can play Centre, and still have a decent LW to slot in.

    Vegas has already traded their 2018 1st, one of their inaugural draft 1st’s, and several other 2nd’s and 3’rds. Their prospect pool is pitiful – the plan must be to continually attract veterans and free agents, although I foresee some painful seasons for them ahead.

    I really like this from Montreal’s perspective. They got a decent 20 goal/yr player in Tatar (w/Vegas retaining 10%), a 100 point scorer in junior with Suzuki, a 2nd round pick and best of all, they saved themselves from overpaying a declining and soon to be 30 year old forward for the next few years. Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

  37. Richard S.S. says:

    1. Oscar Klefbom is a very good Defenseman when healthy, but he’s not a true #1 D and never will be. He’s the Oilers’ #1 D, just not anyone else’s. He might get a little better, but still not a #1. He does however form an acceptable #1 Pairing with Adan Larsson.
    2. Darnel Nurse is a very good Defenseman, just not as good as Oscar. While he might become as good, he’s unlikely to really be better. He will never be a true #1 D. He might become the Oilers’ #1 D, just not anyone else’s.
    3. You will know early if you have a true #1 D. While they might struggle a lot early, they never get caved/they are never overwhelmed.
    4. Darnell Nurse is not and never will be worth the money Oscar Klefbom is making. Unfortunately, he might eventually get more (call it inflation). Peter Chiarelli should not offer more than two years, $3.3 Million per year, and it should not matter how long it takes to sign Darnell.

  38. Oilin4 says:

    John Chambers,

    I think the trade works for both teams, but if you follow the trade chain for Tatar, the Knights gave up two firsts, two seconds, and a third (plus $7M of cap space) for a soon to be 30 year old leftwinger. It’s not quite Chiarelli-esque trading, but not one for the ‘McPhee’s a genius’ drawer.

  39. Richard S.S. says:

    You can’t teach Size. You just need to hope a Player will grow more. You can however teach a Player how to gain or how to lose weight, properly and safely.

    You can’t teach Speed, usually it’s the twitch reflex in play. You can teach a player how to skate better, sometimes much better. An increase in speed might ensue, just don’t expect top speed.

  40. dustrock says:

    Oilin4:
    John Chambers,

    I think the trade works for both teams, but if you follow the trade chain for Tatar, the Knights gave up two firsts, two seconds, and a third (plus $7M of cap space) for a soon to be 30 year old leftwinger. It’s not quite Chiarelli-esque trading, but not one for the ‘McPhee’s a genius’ drawer.

    And they already had at least a roughly similar player in James Neal theoretically available to re-sign.

    Kinda strange to me.

  41. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Oilin4:
    John Chambers,

    I think the trade works for both teams, but if you follow the trade chain for Tatar, the Knights gave up two firsts, two seconds, and a third (plus $7M of cap space) for a soon to be 30 year old leftwinger. It’s not quite Chiarelli-esque trading, but not one for the ‘McPhee’s a genius’ drawer.

    Closer to $7.5 in cap space if they retained 10% on Tatar. (Not this season, but once Pac’s pact kicks in)

  42. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Really interesting graph that has Draft position vs 5 different measures of success:

    The curves changes quite a bit depending on what you are measuring as “success”

    https://twitter.com/Cane_Matt/status/1039249417071734784

    For those who don’t click links the 5 measures are; (flattest to steepest)

    1) Ave TOI for games between ages 23&25
    2) GP before the age of 25
    3) TOI before the age of 25
    4) Played 200 gp
    5) Max cap hit between ages 23&25

  43. PennersPancakes says:

    Richard S.S.,

    You don’t think those are some pretty certain conclusions for a 23 year old defenseman still under 200 NHL games?

    I don’t view things too differently but think its pretty bold to talk like those are all guarantees, could make a killing working for a very lucky team /s

  44. Bank Shot says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    I remember around 2005 when the Oilers sent recent draft picks Rob Schremp and Zack Stortini to skating coach Liane Davis for personal training. The buzz was that Stortini busted his tail to improve himself & Schremp really didn’t.

    Wound up that the third-round pick got 250 NHL games and the first-rounder barely made it to 100.

    RELATED: You can lead a horse to water…

    Makes you think that NHL teams should be drafting primarily for skill and work ethic.

    The tricky part is determining what ratio, and how to judge work ethic.

  45. texmex says:

    Alex chaisson is coming in on a PTO

    McKenzie saying nurse contract negotiations not going well at all

  46. Richard S.S. says:

    I believe Las Vegas starts competing head-on with the NFL in 2019-2020 Season. That leaves the Golden Knights just one more year to lock in their fan base. They need to go deep in the playoffs again this year. I don’t think prospects matter as much as winning must.

  47. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chris Nichols (@Nicholsonhockey) is one of a few “hockey talk aggregators” worth following on twitter.

    They listen to McKenzie, Dreger, Freidman etc on a variety of radio stations and post the most interesting things they say.

    He has McKenzie saying a couple of interesting things today:

    @NicholsOnHockey
    McKenzie: “Here’s an important one. Lots of talk in Edmonton over the summer about this one: Can Milan Lucic rebound from an abysmal season that was punctuated by him asking for a trade, one which he didn’t get.” #Oilers

    @NicholsOnHockey
    McKenzie/ Lucic: “Although if you talk to the right people, by all accounts his mind, his spirit, his body are all fully ready to embrace the challenge of bouncing back this season for the #Oilers.”

    So McKenzie confirms that Lucic asked for a trade.

    We had heard rumours of this and Vor even said he was told they had a deal offered that was reasonable and Peter turned it down.

    He also had this:

    @NicholsOnHockey
    McKenzie: “By all accounts, Nurse’s contract negotiations are not going well at all. So we’ll have to wait and see on that.” #Oilers

    If there is no drama, its not the Oilers.

    *clap,clap*

  48. Profit says:

    Bob McKenzie

    Verified account

    @TSNBobMcKenzie
    50s50 seconds ago
    More Bob McKenzie Retweeted Chris Nichols
    Probably should have added — and this is true of all RFAs, especially those who end up getting bridge deals after realizing vast gulf on long-term valuation, and that will be Nurse — they almost always get done. Just a matter of timing and how close to season opener.

    Bob talking about Chris Nichol’s tweet re: Nurse

  49. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    McKenzie quote tweeted Nichols tweet about Nurse with this:

    @TSNBobMcKenzie

    Bob McKenzie Retweeted Chris Nichols

    Probably should have added — and this is true of all RFAs, especially those who end up getting bridge deals after realizing vast gulf on long-term valuation, and that will be Nurse — they almost always get done. Just a matter of timing and how close to season opener.

  50. JustWatt says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    So, wait.

    Did Lucic play poorly and then ask to be traded? Or was it the other way around? Gotta think it’s probably the first.

  51. Little Johnny Frostbite says:

    Looks like the Oilers are bringing in Alex Chiasson on a PTO…according to the twitters…

  52. pts2pndr says:

    Richard S.S.:
    1. Oscar Klefbom is a very good Defenseman when healthy, but he’s not a true #1 D and never will be.He’s the Oilers’ #1 D, just not anyone else’s.He might get a little better, but still not a #1.He does however form an acceptable #1 Pairing with Adan Larsson.
    2. Darnel Nurse is a very good Defenseman, just not as good as Oscar.While he might become as good, he’s unlikely to really be better.He will never be a true #1 D. He might become the Oilers’ #1 D, just not anyone else’s.
    3. You will know early if you have a true #1 D.While they might struggle a lot early, they never get caved/they are never overwhelmed.
    4. Darnell Nurse is not and never will be worth the money Oscar Klefbom is making.Unfortunately, he might eventually get more (call it inflation).Peter Chiarelli should not offer more than two years, $3.3 Million per year, and it should not matter how long it takes to sign Darnell.

    Nurse is 23. He has shown that he can play first pairing D with Larsson without get caved! He is an excellent to outstanding skater and is durable! He brings physicality and is hard to play against I would argue that if push come to shove the Oilers would be better off to trade Klefbom than to trade Nurse. Use some of the money to sign Nurse for eight years. Move Russel when Lagesson or Jones are ready and or Sekera is healthy. Nurse in my opinion will be a definite first pairin defenseman by the time he is 25. He may not be a numer one due somewhat shy on offense but will be a number two for the the last six years of an eight year contract. If the Oilers could lock him up for Sekera like money he would be great value for the last half of said contract. Who do you feel are the top 30 defenseman in the NHL at this time?

  53. ArmchairGM says:

    Oilin4:
    John Chambers,

    I think the trade works for both teams, but if you follow the trade chain for Tatar, the Knights gave up two firsts, two seconds, and a third (plus $7M of cap space) for a soon to be 30 year old leftwinger. It’s not quite Chiarelli-esque trading, but not one for the ‘McPhee’s a genius’ drawer.

    They got William Karlsson in the deal too, though. That ought to count for something.

  54. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JustWatt:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    So, wait.

    Did Lucic play poorly and then ask to be traded? Or was it the other way around? Gotta think it’s probably the first.

    I have no idea when he asked for a trade.

    His play fell off around Christmas.

    Lucic 5v5 Oct 1- Dec 31:
    2.02 pts/60,
    1.35 Primary pts/60.

    Jan 1- end of season:
    0.63 pts.60.
    0.21 Primary pts/60.

    My guess is he asked around Christmas.

  55. godot10 says:

    The Matheson and Hanifin contracts set the lower bound for what Nurse deserves on a long term deal.

    Nurse is receiving different treatment from the Oilers than other 1st round picks (Eberle, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Klefbom, McDavid, Draisaitl) and different treatment than other Oiler defensemen (Sekera, Russell, Klefbom). and different treatment from the bloated contracts handed out to marginal players like Caggiula and Kassian.

    What is different about Nurse? Why is he being singled out for different, harsher treatment?

    Why is Nurse the only player the Oilers are unwilling to pay?

  56. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Except from Nurse himself they are going decently enough for him to be confident in it being done (obviously not *well* as there is still no signing yet; yes, the agent was upset a bit ago about not being able to get that $5.5-6 for 8 years deal done due to cap restraints, but it seems both parties have moved on), and the trade thing was mentioned months ago, non? Seems like Bob is both playing catchup and making things up (definitely not *all* accounts).

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: The good thing for the Oilers is that if they stay the course we could be talking about a deep run this time next year. JP, KY, Evan Bouchard, maybe Benson and Bear, many of these men will hopefully represent value deals in 2019-20. This was a tough summer, and the team will probably be in a race for that final spot right up to the end, but the bleeding is over.

    Yes, this is the plan. Stay the course and make smart moves. Do not give up assets for Justin Faulk that puts the team in an ever worse cap situation. Allow the prospects to continue to develop and, soon enough, they will be filling roles on the team for cheap and some contracts will fall away. This will lead to a team that can consistently contend. There may be another year or two of pain depending on the prospects but we only need one or two to “hit” in the next few years.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    I think we will wait until day 1 of the season to see a Nurse contract.They will use some of that Sekera cap on him.

    If they do that and use a guy like Bear as the roster spot filler, then will be about $3M under the cap on day 1 and putting Sekera on LTIR would allow the team to go over the cap by apx $2.5M. They could then send Bear down and sign Nurse for term.

    With that said, if Reggie is to be activated this year, using any of the LTIR cushion is going to lead to cap being disposed of mid-season.

  59. geowal says:

    I find myself further appreciating the comment section here (not that I ever lost it). The Athletic has some good/great content, but the comments on some of the national desk stories…barf.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    The Matheson and Hanifin contracts set the lower bound for what Nurse deserves on a long term deal.

    Nurse is receiving different treatment from the Oilers than other 1st round picks (Eberle, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Klefbom, McDavid, Draisaitl) and different treatment than other Oiler defensemen (Sekera, Russell, Klefbom). and different treatment from the bloated contracts handed out to marginal players like Caggiula and Kassian.

    What is different about Nurse?Why is he being singled out for different, harsher treatment?

    Why is Nurse the only player the Oilers are unwilling to pay?

    This assumes that what Nurse is “asking for” is within the realm of reasonableness.

    For all we know, he’s looking for $4.75M on a one-year deal and won’t budge.

    Lets not forget who is agent is.

    Maybe Chia is taking this opportunity to take a stand but, on the other hand, it very well could be Nurse’s side being unreasonable.

    Chia may be effing this up right now or how may not.

    Its all speculation by us.

  61. geowal says:

    OriginalPouzar: This assumes that what Nurse is “asking for” is within the realm of reasonableness.

    For all we know, he’s looking for $4.75M on a one-year deal and won’t budge.

    Lets not forget who is agent is.

    Maybe Chia is taking this opportunity to take a stand but, on the other hand, it very well could be Nurse’s side being unreasonable.

    Chia may be effing this up right now or how may not.

    Its all speculation by us.

    The early complaints from the agent were that he wanted a long term deal and was mad he couldn’t get it; he referenced the goalie contract. So I think it’s unlikely that Nurse prefers a one year deal.

    That said his expectation if the Oilers insist on a 1-2 yr deal scenario may well be unrealistic as you suggest.

  62. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: Why is Nurse the only player the Oilers are unwilling to pay?

    1 – They ran out of money

    2 – Many of the players you list were overpaid.

  63. hunter1909 says:

    Honest Question for the Howling Mob:

    Does every successful team spend right up to the cap?

    There’s something in my head that tells
    me a smart GM wants to keep 4-5 million handy, just in case he wants to load up before the playoffs with some of those expiring and relatively cheap UFA-post playoff contracts.

  64. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909:
    Honest Question for the Howling Mob:

    Does every successful team spend right up to the cap?

    There’s something in my head that tells
    me a smart GM wants to keep 4-5 million handy, just in case he wants to load up before the playoffs with some of those expiring and relatively cheap UFA-post playoff contracts.

    You don’t need 4-5 million at the deadline, $1 million means you can bring in a bunch because there isn’t much track left.

  65. HT Joe says:

    OriginalPouzar: Chia may be effing this up right now or how may not.
    Its all speculation by us.

    Agreed. But as Lowetide has written, “you develop a past”

    EDIT: Sorry, I’m not trying to take this out of context. I meant to say that Lowetide has introduced us to the expression “you develop a past” (and therefore, I fear it applies to Chia presumably fucking up the negotiations)

  66. geowal says:

    Chiasson gets a PTO with the Oilers

  67. geowal says:

    Little Johnny Frostbite:
    Looks like the Oilers are bringing in Alex Chiasson on a PTO…according to the twitters…

    I figured someone had to have posted, looked, missed it, posted, saw it.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal: The early complaints from the agent were that he wanted a long term deal and was mad he couldn’t get it; he referenced the goalie contract. So I think it’s unlikely that Nurse prefers a one year deal.

    That said his expectation if the Oilers insist on a 1-2 yr deal scenario may well be unrealistic as you suggest.

    Yes, it seems he wants a long-term deal, however, if it isn’t going to be a long-term deal and its going to be a bridge, I assume that Nurse’s side would want one year. He’d be looking for the long-term deal next off-season and would have arbitration rights.

    Also, if there was agreement on a reasonable long term deal, the Oilers could sign him to one today and use the LTIR relief on the last day of camp to get cap compliant. Its decreases the amount of LTIR cushion they would be able to use (as opposed to being compliant on day 1 and then placing him on LTIR) but the option is there.

  69. Ribs says:

    I imagine the team’s overspending on lesser players leaves Nurse and his agent a bit frustrated. I’m sure Nurse would have liked a long term deal opposed to the bridge he’s gonna get. Wringing every penny out of this contract might deter GM’s from taking this route in the future.

    Of course this was all foreseeable a month ago so a deal should probably be done by now *sigh*. Dickin’ around.

  70. leadfarmer says:

    The NHL needs to send McPhee and Gallant a nice Edible Arrangement or something. I thought the expansion fee price of 500 mil was pretty steep but seeing it’s up to 650 mil for Seattle. How many teams are worth 650 mil?

  71. Richard S.S. says:

    Nurse’s Agent basically said, “If they had $5.0 Million left, that wouldn’t get it done on a long term deal.” The more he gets on a 2-Year, the more he’ll want on a Multiyear. The Oilers still might need to sign some PTOs to contracts.

    Jesse Puljujarvi is on his final year of his ELC and needs an extension sooner or later, starting now. Tobias Reider, Ty Rattie, Jujhar Khaira, Pontus Aberg, Jacub Jerabek, Kevin Gravel, Cam Talbot and Mikko Kokinen will all need contracts next year, some more than others.

    Best guesses on the Cap for the future suggest $3.0 – $3.25 Million per year over next two years. That will not cover Oiler’s needs next year, nor the year after. Someone must get traded, this year and next, getting back much less in money or extreme talent. Nurse’s greed just make it worse.

  72. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: You don’t need 4-5 million at the deadline, $1 million means you can bring in a bunch because there isn’t much track left.

    Thanks.

  73. hunter1909 says:

    Richard S.S.: Nurse’s greed just make it worse.

    Good teams can deal with minor players. Nurse is still that, a minor player. Nurse isn’t driving anything yet. It’s absurd to think he’s turning his nose up at 5 million a season.

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: If they do that and use a guy like Bear as the roster spot filler, then will be about $3M under the cap on day 1 and putting Sekera on LTIR would allow the team to go over the cap by apx $2.5M. They could then send Bear down and sign Nurse for term.

    With that said, if Reggie is to be activated this year, using any of the LTIR cushion is going to lead to cap being disposed of mid-season.

    That won’t be a problem in the least, because cap hit is calculated daily and the space is cumulative. Also, LTIR can be used during off-season, so they can spend to $85M today, LTIR Sekera tomorrow and be cap-compliant for game 1.

  75. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Nope. You must be fully cap compliant on day 1 and then you can use those caps of LTIR players for replacement players.
    However you are allowed to go over the cap in the offseason but you must drop back to cap compliant on start of season.
    That is why you see trades dumping cap hits of players on LTIR. If what you suggested was true, Chicago would of not needed to attach a decent young player to dump Hossa’s contract

  76. ArmchairGM says:

    hunter1909: Good teams can deal with minor players. Nurse is still that, a minor player. Nurse isn’t driving anything yet. It’s absurd to think he’s turning his nose up at 5 million a season.

    Yup. The most I would be willing to give him is Klefbom’s deal, which in today’s dollars is 7 x $4.55M.

  77. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer:
    ArmchairGM,

    Nope.You must be fully cap compliant on day 1 and then you can use those caps of LTIR players for replacement players.
    However you are allowed to go over the cap in the offseason but you must drop back to cap compliant on start of season.
    That is why you see trades dumping cap hits of players on LTIR.If what you suggested was true, Chicago would of not needed to attach a decent young player to dump Hossa’s contract

    Incorrect. LTIR can be used in the offseason the same way it’s used during the season, and the cap relief is calculated the same way. capfriendly.com has a useful FAQ if you care to look it up.

  78. HT Joe says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Nurse’s Agent basically said, “If they had $5.0 Million left, that wouldn’t get it done on a long term deal.”

    Nurse’s greed just make it worse.

    Hang on… did Nurse’s agent really say $5.0 Million wouldn’t get it done?
    (ANSWER): “If they’ve got $5 million in cap space (now), it’s not going to be a long-term deal,” said Thun.
    LINK: https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/nhl-edmonton-oilers-darnell-nurse-not-interested-in-long-term-contract

    Oh wow.. I forgot his agent said that.

    That being said, I still don’t like the idea that the agent doing his job should be attributed to Nurse being greedy. Of the core blueliners from last year, Nurse is the youngest, tallest (which means he likely will be the biggest once he fills out), one of the better (if not best) skater and (for my money) the most physically imposing. Lots of up arrows. Why shouldn’t Nurse be paid well compared to his peers?

  79. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Except from Nurse himself they are going decently enough for him to be confident in it being done (obviously not *well* as there is still no signing yet; yes, the agent was upset a bit ago about not being able to get that $5.5-6 for 8 years deal done due to cap restraints, but it seems both parties have moved on), and the trade thing was mentioned months ago, non? Seems like Bob is both playing catchup and making things up (definitely not *all* accounts).

    Bob doesn’t play catch up.

    Dreger reported earlier today things were rosey and he expected a deal.

    Bob coming out and stating what he did was very specific.

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Richard S.S.,

    Nurse’s greed just make it worse.

    Please stop posting.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Nurse’s Agent basically said, “If they had $5.0 Million left, that wouldn’t get it done on a long term deal.”The more he gets on a 2-Year, the more he’ll want on a Multiyear. The Oilers still might need to sign some PTOs to contracts.

    They could sign Nurse to 8 X $5M today and place Sekera on LTIR on the last day of camp to get compliant.

    Using LTIR relief is dangerous (in particular if Sekera is ready mid-season) but that option is there.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: That won’t be a problem in the least, because cap hit is calculated daily and the space is cumulative. Also, LTIR can be used during off-season, so they can spend to $85M today, LTIR Sekera tomorrow and be cap-compliant for game 1.

    Yes, it would be a problem. You are correct that the cap hit is calculated daily and any amount under the cap is banked for later use, however, if the team uses the cushion to go over the cap, they will be over the Accruable Cap Space Limit and won’t be accruing any cap space to bank and use for later.

    At least that is my understanding.

    THe Accruable Cap Space Limit will always be less than the upper cap limit.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    ArmchairGM,

    Nope.You must be fully cap compliant on day 1 and then you can use those caps of LTIR players for replacement players.
    However you are allowed to go over the cap in the offseason but you must drop back to cap compliant on start of season.
    That is why you see trades dumping cap hits of players on LTIR.If what you suggested was true, Chicago would of not needed to attach a decent young player to dump Hossa’s contract

    LTIR can be used on the last day of training camp to get cap compliant.

    It is far from ideal but it can be done.

    They could sign Nurse tomorrow to a $5M cap hit to take them to, apx, $81M and then place Sekera on LTIR on the last day of camp and be compliant.

    In that scenarion, Sekera is “deemed replaced” and the new cap max is $81M.

  84. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: They could sign Nurse to 8 X $5M today and place Sekera on LTIR on the last day of camp to get compliant.

    Using LTIR relief is dangerous (in particular if Sekera is ready mid-season) but that option is there.

    So why are teams trading LTIR cap hits for players that are never coming back like Hossa. Doesn’t make sense.

    Sekera will likely be back this season, hope the season isn’t done by the time he gets back though.

  85. godot10 says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Nurse’s greed just make it worse.

    How is Nurse being greedy? Everyone else on the team got paid, many less deserving. Why shouldn’t he?

  86. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Richard S.S.,

    Nurse’s greed just make it worse.

    Please stop posting.

    Grinning…”clap clap”

  87. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: How is Nurse being greedy? Everyone else on the team got paid, many less deserving.Why shouldn’t he?

    It’s not about greed. Nurse will be happy whatever the final outcome.

    It’s about Chiarelli’s empty head+pockets, combined with another asshole agent trying to establish their own miserable reputation at Nurse’s expense.

    lol

  88. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: Yup. The most I would be willing to give him is Klefbom’s deal, which in today’s dollars is 7 x $4.55M.

    Matheson and Hanifin are beyond that and they have played lesser roles than Nurse.

  89. Melvis says:

    “And that goes for you too. Melvis.”

    “Huh?”

  90. Melvis says:

    Let me see – where was I.

    Oh yeah. Would anyone else hazard the possibility Nurse is getting shopped about now?

  91. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: Matheson and Hanifin are beyond that and they have played lesser roles than Nurse.

    They don’t play for the Oilers!!

  92. godot10 says:

    hunter1909: They don’t play for the Oilers!!

    Russell is earning $4 million per year on a medium term deal. Nurse plays higher on the depth chart than he does. Based on Russell’s contract, the equivalent salary on the two year term would be something like 2 years at $3.5 million per season.

  93. treevojo says:

    godot10:

    What is different about Nurse?Why is he being singled out for different, harsher treatment?

    Why is Nurse the only player the Oilers are unwilling to pay?

    I think it is obvious.

    It is because he signed 10 offer sheets this summer.

    You know because they are so common.

  94. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, this is the plan.Stay the course and make smart moves.Do not give up assets for Justin Faulk that puts the team in an ever worse cap situation. Allow the prospects to continue to develop and, soon enough, they will be filling roles on the team for cheap and some contracts will fall away.This will lead to a team that can consistently contend.There may be another year or two of pain depending on the prospects but we only need one or two to “hit” in the next few years.

    Why do you keep trolling me? 🙂

  95. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer: So why are teams trading LTIR cap hits for players that are never coming back like Hossa.Doesn’t make sense.

    Sekera will likely be back this season, hope the season isn’t done by the time he gets back though.

    Sekera was done by the time he came back last season. Below replacement value by a fair margin… If Sekera returns to play for the end of this up coming season, it’s a Denver boot not the Cavalry that’s coming.

  96. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: They could sign Nurse to 8 X $5M today and place Sekera on LTIR on the last day of camp to get compliant.

    Using LTIR relief is dangerous (in particular if Sekera is ready mid-season) but that option is there.

    If Nurse is serious about participating in training camp, he needs to sit down with his agent and face the reality that there is no cap room for the agent’s pie in the sky demands, and get the bridge deal done before he misses camp and half the season , derailing his career and reputation. Teams don’t forget things like that.

  97. Abbeef says:

    – LT says: “Edmonton isn’t as close to winning Stanley as Vegas, that’s a reality”

    I have to disagree with this statement. Gained Pacioretty but lost Tatar, Neal, and Perron. Schmidt misses the first 20 games and Theodore is in the same boat as Nurse unsigned. Half the team had career years as well. I think last season was capturing lightning in a bottle and they will fall out of the playoffs this year. I have Edmonton finishing slightly higher than the Knights but it is all speculation.

  98. flyfish1168 says:

    geowal:
    Chiasson gets a PTO with the Oilers

    This might be the play. Chiasson is here for Kassian job. Much cheaper version. Money to sign Nurse.

  99. godot10 says:

    Oilman99: If Nurse is serious about participating in training camp, he needs to sit down with his agent and face the reality that there is no cap room for the agent’s pie in the sky demands, and get the bridge deal done before he misses camp and half the season , derailing his career and reputation. Teams don’t forget things like that.

    How has Trouba’s reputation and career been derailed? Nurse has company with Morrisey and Theodore. Matheson and Hanifin have set the lower threshold for them on a long term deal. Trouba set the lower threshold on a two year bridge (2 years $6 million, two years ago, add inflation to it or consider it as a percentage of a cap).

    So on a long term deal the lower threshold is $5 million
    On a bridge the lower threshold is $3 million plus cap inflation or about $3.25 million.
    A bridge based on Russell’s contract is something like $3.5 million.

  100. hunter1909 says:

    Oilman99: Lowe+MacT don’t forget things like that.

    Fixed.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: So why are teams trading LTIR cap hits for players that are never coming back like Hossa.Doesn’t make sense.

    Sekera will likely be back this season, hope the season isn’t done by the time he gets back though.

    They are being traded to teams that are not near the cap and can take on the cap space and receive an asset for doing so. In most cases insurance is paying the player.

    If Sekera is going to be back this year, the organization must be extremely careful in using any of the LTIR cushion.

    As an aside, Yaremchuk told me earlier this evening “From the people I’ve talked to, the team is very confident that Andrej will not play a game this season.”.

  102. leadfarmer says:

    Ryan: Sekera was done by the time he came back last season. Below replacement value by a fair margin… If Sekera returns to play for the end of this up coming season, it’s a Denver boot not the Calvary that’s coming.

    Year for recovery for major surgery. It’s easy to forget.
    Not saying he is cavalry. Just a statement of fact. He will likely play this season. Season may be done by February

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: If Nurse is serious about participating in training camp, he needs to sit down with his agent and face the reality that there is no cap room for the agent’s pie in the sky demands, and get the bridge deal done before he misses camp and half the season , derailing his career and reputation. Teams don’t forget things like that.

    Agreed about him needing to be in camp – I don’t know about derailing his career but, if he wants to win this season…….

    Sitting out training camp and part of the season likely hurts him as he’ll set himself up for a poorer year which he doesn’t want if he’s on a bridge.

  104. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: They are being traded to teams that are not near the cap and can take on the cap space and receive an asset for doing so. In most cases insurance is paying the player.

    If Sekera is going to be back this year, the organization must be extremely careful in using any of the LTIR cushion.

    As an aside, Yaremchuk told me earlier this evening “From the people I’ve talked to, the team is very confident that Andrej will not play a game this season.”.

    Still doesn’t answer the question of why give up assets to dump guys like Hossa when you get the cap relief

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Abbeef:
    – LT says: “Edmonton isn’t as close to winning Stanley as Vegas, that’s a reality”

    I have to disagree with this statement.Gained Pacioretty but lost Tatar, Neal, and Perron.Schmidt misses the first 20 games and Theodore is in the same boat as Nurse unsigned.Half the team had career years as well.I think last season was capturing lightning in a bottle and they will fall out of the playoffs this year.I have Edmonton finishing slightly higher than the Knights but it is all speculation.

    Don’t forget Stastny.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Still doesn’t answer the question of why give up assets to dump guys like Hossa when you get the cap relief

    This is exactly what I’ve been stating – the cap relief that you get is not that great and it comes with many nuances, many risks and many complications.

    Even if we knew that Sekera would never play again and we would be able to put him on LTIR for the next three seasons, we still have his cap hit and we still have to manage it.

    Getting rid of Sekera in that scenario is MUCH better than using LTIR year after year.

  107. leadfarmer says:

    Abbeef:
    – LT says: “Edmonton isn’t as close to winning Stanley as Vegas, that’s a reality”

    I have to disagree with this statement.Gained Pacioretty but lost Tatar, Neal, and Perron.Schmidt misses the first 20 games and Theodore is in the same boat as Nurse unsigned.Half the team had career years as well.I think last season was capturing lightning in a bottle and they will fall out of the playoffs this year.I have Edmonton finishing slightly higher than the Knights but it is all speculation.

    Tatar was a trade deadline acquisition and didn’t play much in playoffs so he was a non factor.
    I would take Statsny and Patches over Perron and Neal. Top line is good and even if they fall back to earth Marchessault is really really good
    Biggest question marks is Haula and Tuch. Well that and the suspension

  108. Gerta Rauss says:

    leadfarmer: Still doesn’t answer the question of why give up assets to dump guys like Hossa when you get the cap relief

    https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/10/15/6951103/why-long-term-injured-reserve-is-not-good

    Using LTIR year after year affects a teams flexibility, it is by no means a get out of jail free card

    After a year or two, teams like the Flyers(Pronger) or the Hawks(Hossa) are willing to pay a small fee to move these contracts along to teams nowhere near the cap ceiling

  109. Gerta Rauss says:

    leadfarmer,

    https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/7/3/5865615/flyers-salary-cap-pronger-ltir

    The above link is 4 years old and it’s in regards to Pronger, but it relates directly to the Oilers situation in regards to Sekera

  110. rickithebear says:

    Boil-in-the-Oil:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Hey Chiarelli . . .

    GET NURSE SIGNED PRIOR TO CAMP! Get it done.

    Dont!
    our Even GF and GA will improve.
    Down to playoff killing rovers!

    It is a fact that
    Top 5 GA team can win a cup with bottom 30 GF team.
    Top 5 GF teams need top 15 GA to win a cup.
    GA teams are 20-40% more likely to advance than equal GF team.
    Yet some believe that GF is the best option.

    Bio receptor/chem cocktails can Cure/remission cancer with little or no radiation.
    Radiation needs above avg bio receptor/chemo cocktails.
    Bio receptor/chemo is at least 20-40% more effective than Radiations I have studied.
    Yet some Morons believe radiation is best choice.
    Thou I offen wonder if they just like the pain.
    Kind of creepy!

  111. Pescador says:

    Ryan: Sekera was done by the time he came back last season. Below replacement value by a fair margin… If Sekera returns to play for the end of this up coming season, it’s a Denver boot not the Cavalry that’s coming.

    Agree with this, not rooting against him by any means.
    This seems like one of those grey areas when the players states he is ready to go, the doctor looks over the hopeful patients shoulder at the smoked glass window.
    Behind is a stalky, shadowed figure with a noticeably bald head that is shaking back and forth slowly in a ‘not an option’ type fashion.
    Doctor returns glance back to aged veteran, “tests results don’t look favourable”

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear: Dont!
    our Even GF and GA will improve.
    Down to playoff killing rovers!

    It is a fact that
    Top 5 GA team can win a cup with bottom 30 GF team.
    Top 5 GF teams need top 15 GA to win a cup.
    GA teams are 20-40% more likely to advance than equal GF team.
    Yet some believe that GF is the best option.

    How do you justify “DON’T” when Nurse had a materially positive goal differential at even strength on a team that was negative a evens and while playing some of the toughest minutes on the team?

  113. jp says:

    flyfish1168: This might be the play. Chiasson is here for Kassian job. Much cheaper version. Money to sign Nurse.

    Yup, I was thinking that too.

    And saving $1M by bringing in the cup winning 4R I’m sure has appeal (assuming you can unload Kass).

    If they want to go long term with Nurse the easiest way to be compliant is to “send” Koskinen to the minors for a few hrs. That saves about 1.5M on the cap and allows them to go up to 5.4M for Nurse. Adding a Chiasson for Kassian exchange would give them about 6.5M if they wanted to go there.

    The team can sign Nurse long term if they want. I’m guessing they prefer a bridge, betting he won’t put up a ton of points, but who knows. And you wonder what the ask from the Nurse camp is.

    All that aside, Chiasson could be the 4R. Not at all sure he’s an improvement on Kassian if you don’t include the cap savings, but it could be a wash.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Yup, I was thinking that too.

    If they want to go long term with Nurse the easiest way to be compliant is to “send” Koskinen to the minors for a few hrs. That saves about 1.5M on the cap and allows them to go up to 5.4M for Nurse. Adding a Chiasson for Kassian exchange would give them about 6.5M if they wanted to go there.

    I don’t think this works – yes, they can bury $1M (well, a smidgen more) of Koskinen’s cap hit if they send him down (assuming he clears) but he’d still have a cap hit of $1.5M (well a smidgen under) but they must have two goalies on the roster so they’d need to bring someone up – Wells is the cheapest at $740K. It would only save a few hundred grand.

  115. jp says:

    leadfarmer: Tatar was a trade deadline acquisition and didn’t play much in playoffs so he was a non factor.
    I would take Statsny and Patches over Perron and Neal.Top line is good and even if they fall back to earth Marchessault is really really good
    Biggest question marks is Haula and Tuch. Well that and the suspension

    And Karlsson. He’s not going finish 3rd in goals and lead the league in +/- again. He’s likely “real”, like he can score 25 goals again. But he’s just not going to repeat what he did last season.

  116. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Melvis:
    Let me see – where was I.

    Oh yeah. Would anyone else hazard the possibility Nurse is getting shopped about now?

    It would not surprise me at all.

    My main complaint with Peter is not the trades because I feel he was between a rock and a hard place with the unbalanced roster he inherited. But the lack of cap management is all on him. Hope Nurse stays but I think it is 50/50 right now. As our learned host often says, “we wait”.

  117. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think this works – yes, they can bury $1M (well, a smidgen more) of Koskinen’s cap hit if they send him down (assuming he clears) but he’d still have a cap hit of $1.5M (well a smidgen under) but they must have two goalies on the roster so they’d need to bring someone up – Wells is the cheapest at $740K.It would only save a few hundred grand.

    You’re right, not sure what I was thinking there. Sending him down saves very little so it’s pointless. He isn’t waiver eligible though, so they could send him if there was a reason to.

  118. Bling says:

    godot10: How has Trouba’s reputation and career been derailed?Nurse has company with Morrisey and Theodore.Matheson and Hanifin have set the lower threshold for them on a long term deal.Trouba set the lower threshold on a two year bridge (2 years $6 million, two years ago, add inflation to it or consider it as a percentage of a cap).

    So on a long term deal the lower threshold is $5 million
    On a bridge the lower threshold is $3 million plus cap inflation or about $3.25 million.
    A bridge based on Russell’s contract is something like $3.5 million.

    Why is Hanifin’s cap hit a lower threshold for Nurse?

    Offence still gets you paid in this league, and Hanifin is a better offensive player than Nurse.

    On the defensive end, Nurse has had more success than Hanifin at playing the elites, but he hasn’t done that for a full season yet, and he certainly hasn’t shown that he can anchor a pairing. Hanifin is also two years younger.

    I think Nurse is a wonderful player, but I don’t see him being well clear of Hanifin.

  119. Jaxon says:

    I was just looking at Matt Benning’s elite Prospects page and I started looking at his family and Chiarelli’s family. What a gift Matt Benning was. I knew they had some connection but I didn’t know how deep. It was pretty much a given that Matt would sign here I bet. His uncle Mark played with Chiarelli for 3 seasons at Harvard from 1984 to 1987 (Mark’s brothers Jim and Brian were solid NHLers at this time). His other uncle, Jim, worked with Chiarelli in Boston for 8 seasons from 2006 to 2014. They drafted Matt in 2012 for Boston when Chiarelli was GM and Jim was Assist.GM. Then his uncle went to Vancouver and Chiarelli got fired and hired in Edmonton, where Matt was born (St Albert) and his dad, Brian, and uncles were born in Edmonton and his dad played 1 season for the Oilers just before he was born and Matt grew up in the Edmonton area. We can give Chiarelli credit for Benning but I’d stop short of saying it was shrewd, inventive or genius in any way. He kind of fell into his lap. so the Benning Chiarelli families have known each other well for 34 years since 1984.

  120. Jaxon says:

    Bling: Offence still gets you paid in this league, and Hanifin is a better offensive player than Nurse.

    Hanifin may have more offensive upside but Nurse did outscore him at 5v5 last season. Nurse had 24 pts to Hanifin’s 23. Hanifin was a #3/4 D, Nurse played #1 minutes (6th most 5v5 minutes in the NHL), so he certainly played against tougher competition than Hanifin (who had 65th most).

    Nurse gave 142 hits and took 68 hits. Hanifin gave 78 hits and took 79 hits. Nurse blocked 113 shots to Hanifin’s 59.

    Nurse’s puckIQ numbers / fancy stats against elites was good too.

    Nurse is big (15 lbs heavier than Hanifin), mean, and super fast. I also have a feeling Nurse is going to take another big step forward this season.

    I think we agree however, that Nurse may not be clear of Hanifin. But, would I trade Nurse for Hanifin? Nope.

    Even on a 2 year bridge I think Nurse’s agent can make a good case for $4M. But they don’t have the room right now.

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=D&loc=B&toi=500&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=82&lines=single

  121. Pescador says:

    Jaxon: Hanifin may have more offensive upside but Nurse did outscore him at 5v5 last season. Nurse had 24 pts to Hanifin’s 23. Hanifin was a #3/4 D, Nurse played #1 minutes (6th most 5v5 minutes in the NHL), so he certainly played against tougher competition than Hanifin (who had 65th most).

    Nurse gave 142 hits and took 68 hits. Hanifin gave 78 hits and took 79 hits. Nurse blocked 113 shots to Hanifin’s 59.

    Nurse’s puckIQ numbers / fancy stats against elites was good too.

    Nurse is big (15 lbs heavier than Hanifin), mean, and super fast. I also have a feeling Nurse is going to take another big step forward this season.

    I think we agree however, that Nurse may not be clear of Hanifin. But, would I trade Nurse for Hanifin? Nope.

    Even on a 2 year bridge I think Nurse’s agent can make a good case for $4M. But they don’t have the room right now.

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=D&loc=B&toi=500&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=82&lines=single

    Beauty Post,

    Nurse is going to take another step, the feeling is mutual

  122. Ribs says:

    Melvis:
    Let me see – where was I.

    Oh yeah. Would anyone else hazard the possibility Nurse is getting shopped about now?

    Nurse for Schmidt and a first. All about dem lottery balllzzzzzz!! Oh boy.

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon:
    Even on a 2 year bridge I think Nurse’s agent can make a good case for $4M. But they don’t have the room right now.

    If they wanted to sign him for around $4M, they could certainly do so. In fact, although I’ve been on record multiple times stating the dangers of using LTIR relief, they could sign Nurse today to a bigger cap hit and use LTIR relief on the last day of camp to get compliant. That would ultimately reduce the amount of LTIR cushion they would have for this year but, if Nurse was willing to sign 7 X $4.75M, they could sign that tomorrow and use last day of cap LTIR placement to get compliant.

    Also, if the parties agreed to a $4M bridge, there is certainly room for that.

    A $4M bridge would put them like $25K over the cap but they could send Koskinen down (and recall Montoya or Wells) to save a few hundred grand on the cap, be compliant on day 1, LTIR Sekera, recall Koskinen and then have $5.5M minus their cap space for LTIR relief.

    Using that LTIR relief would remain dangerous but there is the ability to sign Nurse to whatever they want right now.

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    Although I don’t really see it happening but perhaps Chiarelli is looking to try and trade someone like Caggulia or Kassian for a pick or non-roster player/prospect (i.e. no cap return) in connection with the signing of an Upshall or Chaisson for $700K – $800K (i.e. cap savings of $750k – $1.3M) and then signing Nurse (perhaps to a bloated bridge of $4.25M or something like that)?

    I assume that Caggulia or Kassian are tradeable without cap retention.

  125. hunter1909 says:

    Imagine Nurse getting the Souray treatment lol it’s almost inevitable with these bozos.

  126. godot10 says:

    Bling: Why is Hanifin’s cap hit a lower threshold for Nurse?

    Offence still gets you paid in this league, and Hanifin is a better offensive player than Nurse.

    On the defensive end, Nurse has had more success than Hanifin at playing the elites, but he hasn’t done that for a full season yet, and he certainly hasn’t shown that he can anchor a pairing. Hanifin is also two years younger.

    I think Nurse is a wonderful player, but I don’t see him being well clear of Hanifin.

    Because Nurse has played at a higher level in the NHL. There is no significant difference in offense between the two.at even strength.

  127. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon,

    Hanifin is generally regarded to have #1D upside, Nurse is not.

  128. Pescador says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Jaxon,

    Hanifin is generally regarded to have #1D upside, Nurse is not.

    I don’t recall reading that anywhere.
    Only discussions I can recall all mentioned ‘top 4 potential’ for both

  129. OmJo says:

    R Kirill Maksimov: I thought he played very well for a scorer on a checking line. His real opportunities were sparse (as you would imagine) but he showed good speed and shot the puck whenever the opportunity arose. I sincerely hope they play him with a skill center in the next game.

    So it begins…

  130. Dustylegnd says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here’s a key take away from that piece:

    Point wasn’t known for his speed when he was picked in the third round of the 2014 NHL draft. Three years later, the 5-foot-10 forward came within a tenth of a second of beating Connor McDavid in the fastest skater competition at the All-Star Game. Point tormented the Bruins’ top line with a ferocious forecheck as the best player in the Eastern Conference semifinals.


    “He’s gone from average (skater) to elite,” Lightning scouting director Al Murray said.

    “From acceptable to exceptional,” said Tim Hunter, Point’s junior coach in Moose Jaw.

    Not only can skating be improved, it can be improved substantially by players who skate well enough to be in the NHL.

    The exact kind of open minded and innovative approach to building a successful and deep organization that Oilers fans can only dream about.

    Stevie Y is brilliant at Drafting, negotiating player contracts, and roster construction…..yes he has made mistakes, but his mistakes did not cripple the organization for the foreseeable future

    The fact Chia has not been able to sign Nurse tells me everything I need to know about him as a GM….he is shit…I look at the Oiler roster and compare it to the Tampa roster and I want to puke…. we are not remotely close to winning anything……and that is a fact

  131. rickithebear says:

    OP:

    I thought you watched video.
    If Nurse is not in screen in front of the net and the other d is.
    You remember wat my kids and I call were is Waldo.
    Then that is a 1R-1D-1G
    This introduces my False Eye affect theory.
    We’re a whole collection of poorly informed fans blame the Dman properly holding the defensive structure..
    There is the elite in the game.
    Special difference makers
    Crosby, Mcdavid, Malkin…..
    Then the best PvP unit differential dmen who can carry other players goal diff.
    Then cover unit diff in a 1-1-1.
    Chara, Doughty, Larsson.
    2nd comp and lower guys like
    Methot
    Orpik
    Martin

    It sure is not Waldo who is not Def in screen.

    I like you as a poster cause you ask smart (correct) questions.
    Winning is GF-GA.
    1 Goalie and 4 Top 60 d in HD and PK make you conf competitive every year with a HD sys coach.

    On to day 2 of stem cell harvest!

  132. rickithebear says:

    Jaxon:
    Do not be visually fooled by hits, skating, point count.
    I did early with Petry.
    Cause I did not differentiate HD results from 1-1-1 coverage.
    Petry was shit
    Nurse is shit when waldoing (rover)
    But can be 1st comp HD elite.
    Hanafin is poor HD which is a huge upgrade over total shit Hamilton. ( thank your goalie buddy)

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