(It never happened to) Pablo Picasso

Based on what I’m reading, this blog’s author might be the only living human who is pleased with the Edmonton Oilers’ summer. I checked the news every day of summer, and know for certain there was no “Jesse Puljujarvi dealt for Oliver Bjorkstrand” deal and draft day didn’t see Edmonton trade No. 10 overall for Mike Hoffman.

I know this isn’t fun and there are going to be growing pains. The price of poor drafting (followed by trading draft picks in 2014 and 2015) is the organization is being forced to fritter away some prime McDavid years. There are no alternatives, the organization has to be patient and build through the draft, having wasted the entirety of the McDavid entry deal in an effort to make the playoffs quickly. If the 2015 entry draft had been given to the scouts, I’m convinced this team would be pushing for the top of the division.

  • Colonel Nicholson in The Bridge on the River Kwai: Frankly, the consensus of opinion is that it’s impossible, but we’ll certainly give it a go. After all, we mustn’t forget that we’ve wasted over a month through an unfortunate disagreement for which I was not to blame.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic made some big additions last week, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman joining the Edmonton staff. Daniel, Jonathan Willis, Minnia Feng, Pat McLean and me will deliver prose all winter long and there will be tons via the national desk from Tyler Dellow, Corey Pronman and Dom Luszczysyn. Special offer is here, less than $4 a month! Also, don’t forget to join us later this month (September 24, The Rec Room south side) for a get together and general merriment. I’m thrilled to be part of this group, hope you join us.

  • New Lowetide: RE 18-19: Ryan Strome and the Oilers long journey to competent third and fourth lines
  • New Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers fail in 2018-19, it will probably be the same reason they failed in 2017-18.
  • Eric Duhatschek: Connor McDavid knows what ails the Oilers and how to improve it.
  • Lowetide: RE 18-19: Leon Draisaitl and the pursuit of a second outscoring line in ’18-19
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers improve in ’18-19, they’ll do it on the back of special teams
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Ethan Bear is providing inspiration for Indigenous youth through his hockey camp.
  • Jonathan Willis: The arrival of Alex Chiasson gives the Oilers a crowd up front
  • The Athletic Cross Canada Tour Will hit Edmonton!
  • Lowetide: RE 18-19 Can the McDavid line lead the 2018-19 Oilers to the playoffs?
  • Lowetide: For Oilers young forwards, it’s what you create versus what you leave.
  • Lowetide: Ryan Mantha’s injury and uncertain recovery.
  • Lowetide: Oilers rookie camp roster offers options and balance.
  • Corey Pronman: The most intriguing prospect to watch at camp for every NHL team.
  • Jonathan Willis: Three different KHL stars, three different paths to NHL success.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Bringing something different to the Oilers beat.
  • Dom Luszczyszyn: 2018-19 season preview Edmonton Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Who will win the McDavid-line lottery?
  • Lowetide: The 2018-19 Oilers and what may come.
  • Lowetide: The 2015 draft and what was lost
  • Lowetide: Projecting the 2018-19 Oilers opening night roster
  • Lowetide: Where will Tobias Rieder land on the Oilers depth chart?

VALUE CONTRACTS (CANDIDATES)

  1. LC Connor McDavid $12.5 million. The value of McDavid to this franchise is enormous. On many nights this winter, the 20+ minutes 97 contributes will be enough to overcome the overall roster problems and grab two points. He’s incredible.
  2. LD Oscar Klefbom $4.167 million. Healthy and with few alternatives on the roster, Klefbom has a job on the top pairing 5-on-5 and top unit power play. Can he deliver 40 points? If he can help form a strong duo with Adam Larsson and post crooked numbers 5-on-4, this contract will be a strong value deal.
  3. R Tobias Rieder $2 million. Likely the best free-agent money spent by Edmonton this offseason, I placed him at 2R in my RE series (for much of the year). If he can score 15 goals, penalty kill and offer a two-way conscience for the Draisaitl line, Rieder will get paid handsomely next summer (hopefully by Edmonton).
  4. RC Kyle Brodziak $1.15 million. He’s 34, so erosion is already underway and players like this tend to fall off a cliff (remember Eric Belanger?) as opposed to fading slowly. Still, his skill sets are a perfect marriage to team need, so there’s a chance for a strong value season.
  5. R Jesse Puljujarvi $.925 million. He comes with an exciting $2.5 million in possible bonus dollars. He’s 20, has acclimated over two seasons, and the general manager has maneuvered the roster in a way that welcomes the young man’s talents. It’s go time, JP’s emergence as a productive player would represent one of the true positives for the coming year.
  6. R Ty Rattie $.800 million. Massive chance to help the Oilers and himself this season, Rattie developed some chem with 97 and 93 on the top line and will get the same spot in the batting order to start the year. We could be dealing with a major story in Rattie.
  7. L Jujhar Khaira $.675 million. He was a revelation last season, providing some 5-on-5 offense, penalty-killing acumen and playing well on the No. 3 line when required. Another season like that one would be real value.
  8. L Pontus Aberg $.650 million. He scored well after coming over and brings speed to his line. He could get lost in the crowd but with so many opportunities available, Aberg could over deliver on his cap number.

That sucks for Upshall, he spoke to several outlets about how much he was looking forward to being a part of this team. Hopefully he’s close and will join the team later in the year.

Faulk has been a rumor for some time, I’m not sure he’s going to help a great deal and I wonder if it might be wise to keep that Sekera money for a rainy day. What if the goaltending fumbles? Spending those dollars on Faulk blocks the team from addressing other needs as they arise.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy Friday morning as we get going with the daily routine of a hockey club in town. Oilers news items will break during the show, although the Nurse signing likely goes during Jamo’s show (shakes fist!). Scheduled to appear, TSN1260 at 10 this morning:

  • Jesse Marshall, The Athletic-Pittsburgh. Our final Metro stop is in the land of Crosby and Malkin. We’ll talk Jack Johnson and expectations.
  • Dan Ralph, Canadian Press. CFL weekend and is there a team in this league where Johnny Football can start?
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Point Counter Point on Nurse, the Oilers expectations and CFL weekend.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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268 Responses to "(It never happened to) Pablo Picasso"

« Older Comments
  1. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think its the later, and I think it will be the Lucic who scored 2.02pts/60 and 1.40 ppts/60from Oct 1 – Dec 31 last year.

    Hopefully someone bites.

    I’d almost wager that even OP would do a Faulk for Lucic deal.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    digger50: All summer to think about things and Todd decides not to change his whiteboard.

    He knows he was correct last year and it was all about the team in orange underperforming.

    Why do you want to hurt me?

  3. Scungilli Slushy says:

    SJ will have two awesome O defense on the ice 3/4 of a game, the question remains will they outscore the issues D zone, and IIRC both Burns and Karlsson were sheltered some from WGs stats he put up a few months ago.

    Vlasic is awesome, who else carries D zone load? Could be awesome could be less than expected. I bet strong reg season and early playoff exit.

    At this time of year I’m always optimistic about things Oilers. This spin on the merry go round it’s the coaching that is my hope. Make the best from what you have.

  4. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: On point 2, Chia said the AAV was inflated because the team insisted on one-year.

    What do you foresee happening in one of the three actual top 4 d the Oilers have gets injured this season?

  5. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: Sorry OP. No chance Karlsson DOESN’T re sign with San Jose … Wilson would have made sure Karlsson would commit long term before pulling the trigger

    I”ll bet you $100 to your/mine favorite charity that he doesn’t.

    I think I’m a favourite here, but its really close.

  6. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,


    – Glad your on board LT! I was admonishing you for your very negative take (which was consensus), that a desperate and poor GM would be rash to make short-term improvements to save his job, and would bleed talent

    The term “consensus” is vague.

    I’d have the number of posters who agree with “don’t fuck it up by trading futures” at great than 50%.

    What do you have it at?

    Right. I think the general vibe was “well, it’s a real shame the last 3 offseasons happened but Chiarelli didn’t make it much worse this offseason.”

  7. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I”ll bet you $100 to your/mine favorite charity that he doesn’t.

    I think I’m a favourite here, but its really close.

    I don’t think it’s a lock, but I’d certainly say the odds are better than 50 percent that Karlsson stays in San Jose.

    US city – check
    California thing – that’s okay
    Doug Wilson – No dummy.

  8. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sharks give up a 1st rounder to OTT if that happens.

    Actually, I think the better scenario, is that they lose in the SCF (if Edmonton is not in it) as that’s another conditional pick that would vest and the Sharks would lose to the Eastern conference.

    No.

    SJS only gives up that first if Karlsson is on a EC roster during the 18/19 season.

    Call it a Hoffman clause.

  9. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: I don’t think it’s a lock, but I’d certainly say the odds are better than 50 percent that Karlsson stays in San Jose.

    US city – check
    California thing – that’s okay
    Doug Wilson – No dummy.

    Bet?

  10. YKOil says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I wonder if part of the Nurse contract impasse is the structure of the deal.Maybe he wants 2.5 in year 1 and 4.5 in year 2. Or maybe 2 and 5? Frick. I’m going off the deep end here.

    I can believe this, probably 3.0 and 4.0. Completely changes the qualifying offer methinks

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:.Karlsson is a very good forward in the offensive zone and a very good defenseman in his own zone

    Proof?

    I have it differently but am open to your evidence.

  12. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Gregor is saying this his sources say the gap between management and Nurse is $3M vs. $3.5M on a bridge. For what its worth.

    Nurse’s ask of $3.5 million on a two year bridge is a completely reasonable ask.

    3.25, 1st year, 3.75 2nd year….hypothetical now 3rd yr 4.25, 4th year 4.75.

    Asking for $3.5 million on a two year bridge is equivalent to Russell’s 4 x $4 million based on the breakdown above, neglecting the last two hypothetical years.

    Chiarelli is lowballing him…making Nurse pay for Pete’s other contract mistakes.

  13. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I”ll bet you $100 to your/mine favorite charity that he doesn’t.

    I think I’m a favourite here, but its really close.

    These terms.

  14. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Absolutely he could have fetched the max but that would not have been reasonable.</b

    Why?

  15. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: These terms.

    Booked!

    Gluck!

  16. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Which makes no sense. It’s not as if Ottawa is contending this year. Is Dorion an idiot? Sure looks like it.

    OTT doesn’t own their own first pick in the year they “start the rebuild” and bottom 3 looks very probable.

    I’m not making this up.

  17. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Proof?

    I have it differently but am open to your evidence.

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.turtoro#!/vizhome/2-yearA3ZPlayerComps/ComparisonDashboard

    Put in Karlsson. I’m guessing you were thinking he was in the Burns camp but he is not. Very different d and it shows especially zone entry and taking pucks away.
    This site really breaks down why Ricki defensemen are a dying breed. I’ve been looking for something that shows some numbers and hey there’s a database.
    I know you like GF numbers but those are a reflection of what happens with 5 players on the ice and with crappy goaltending they are worthless (see Pesce’s numbers Without Slavin). And with different techniques that have been described for sheltering D, QoC is flawed.
    This database actually correlates really well with the eyeball (Hamilton and Weber are top 1% shot generation d, Say what)
    Arguing about Karlssons abilities reminds me of when Corsi got big and I had to argue that Weber and Josi are actually very good defensemen.
    Ricki suggested filling the RHD gap with Emelin or Sbisa. Plug them in. Quickly explains why they are not an option

  18. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: OTT doesn’t own their own first pick in the year they “start the rebuild” and bottom 3 looks very probable.

    I’m not making this up.

    I don’t get why they drafted this year and not gave up the pick. I really don’t. Really Baffling. Tkachuk is not that good of a prospect.

  19. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Booked!

    Gluck!

    Ha. Now that I’ve taken the wager, we can all now rest assured that Karlsson won’t re-sign with San Jose. Sorry Doug.

  20. Bling says:

    I’m surprised to hear that Nurse is leaving a ~5 million AAV contract on the table.

    Maybe he does have more to give, but I don’t see this turning into a PK Subban situation, where the player was bridged and then won a Norris Trophy.

    Nurse just hasn’t shown that type of offensive ability, and he was brutal in limited minutes on the PP last season (GF/60 = 1.59). In comparison, Klef was 5.55, Benning was 5.72, and Russell was 6.86 (the latter in very limited minutes). 

    Next season, one of Bouchard or Bear will be up, and that means even less PP time for Nurse.

    From his perspective…this is a weird gamble to take. He’s banking on becoming an elite evens guy +/- elite PK guy. If he tries to bring advanced stats into it (denied zone entries, for example), he’ll have to explain away his mediocrity at the outlet pass.

    Even if he improves in all these areas, he is still screwed comp-wise if someone like Hanifin takes off.

  21. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: In fairness he was an awful option for 2RD.

    16/17 results:

    Sekera – Russel
    CF% 45.5%
    GF% 62.5%
    PDO 1035

    Russel away from Sekera in 16/17
    CF% 48.5%
    GF% 47.0%
    PDO 964

    So it looks Pete made a big bet on Russel’s PDO with Sekera holding up.

    It wasn’t the first bet on PDO and it won’t be the last.

    Let’s have a look at Russel last year with his most common partners:

    With Nurse – 426 mintutes
    CF% 48.2
    GF% 47.4

    With Klefbom – 217 minutes (really? I don’t remember them together often)
    CF% 49.2%
    GF% 36.8%

    Klef last year.Man.

    With Sekera – 173 minutes
    CF% 50.5%
    GF% 27.3%

    Man.

    Reg couldn’t do it on one leg and a brace last year.

    Russel was *never* a good signing for 2RD.

    Pete has good moves and bad moves (despite what Kinger says, most poster here have an ounce of more of nuance)

    Russell at 4x 4MM might be worse than Lucic at $6MM x 7 in terms of roster reverberations. (Hall for Larsson Becuase Lucic notwithstanding)

    I think your last sentence is quite a stretch.
    Which player has been better over the last 2 years? And he’s paid 2 million less for 3 less years.

  22. Ryan says:

    who: I think your last sentence is quite a stretch.
    Which player has been better over the last 2 years? And he’s paid 2 million less for 3 less years.

    I agree with him in principle. Signing Russell for the 2rd slot with term, premium dollars, trade protection, and the last year signing bonus was an unmitigated disaster. No upside from day one.

    One litmus test for stupidity is considering the trade value at any time after a contract was signed. Russell’s was negative value from the moment it was inked.

    Russell is terrible at defending zone entries and outlet passes.

    His micro stats are brutal.

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.turtoro#!/vizhome/2-yearA3ZPlayerComps/ComparisonDashboard

  23. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    Sens are obsessive with sending their players West, so they send Hoffman to SJ, who then screw Ottawa right back by sending him back to Florida. Why on earth did they go back to the same well?

  24. leadfarmer says:

    Too much of analysis relies on Moneyball – a sport that has a very controlled environment with one pitcher facing one batter with time in between each pitch and when ball is hit you can easily put in a vector and becomes ball vs fielder. Very very easy.
    GF Corsi Fenwick are all much more likely to be a factor of the other 9 players on the ice than the actual player you are trying to measure. And especially GF% is even more reliant on the goalies and than the other 9 players and than the player you are trying to measure creating a whole lot of noise creating data sets like Pesce without Slavin 20% GF. Slavin without Pesce 35%.
    Those are not real numbers. That’s just capturing noise of the other 11 players on the ice
    This model at least captures what said player is directly responsible for and firs eye test very well

  25. Pescador says:

    JimmyV1965: If this is really the gap I’m sure it will be figured out sooner than later.

    You’re probably correct, but then why wait.
    Hard to understand what the benefit would be
    Gord knows PC has pissed away far more on far less.
    Nurse- make him sweat
    Everyone else- fck it, fill in your own check

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: No.

    SJS only gives up that first if Karlsson is on a EC roster during the 18/19 season.

    Call it a Hoffman clause.

    Yes, we established the correction many posts ago and I admitted I was incorrect.

  27. Pescador says:

    Chelios is a Dinosaur:
    Sens are obsessive with sending their players West, so they send Hoffman to SJ, who then screw Ottawa right back by sending him back to Florida. Why on earth did they go back to the same well?

    Sometimes it feels good to get screwed.
    Being on the bottom, doesn’t always mean you’re losing

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Nurse’s ask of $3.5 million on a two year bridge is a completely reasonable ask.

    3.25, 1st year, 3.75 2nd year….hypothetical now 3rd yr 4.25, 4th year 4.75.

    Asking for $3.5 million on a two year bridge is equivalent to Russell’s 4 x $4 million based on the breakdown above, neglecting the last two hypothetical years.

    Chiarelli is lowballing him…making Nurse pay for Pete’s other contract mistakes.

    This will be the fourth time I bring it up to you but you never respond. You harp on things like leverage and arbitration rights and all the nuances of contract negotiations but then totally ignore the difference between UFA and RFA contracts – I don’t get it.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Absolutely he could have fetched the max but that would not have been reasonable.</b


    Why?

    because it would have been $4.5M higher than the next closest cap hit.

  30. Pescador says:

    Bling:
    I’m surprised to hear that Nurse is leaving a ~5 million AAV contract on the table.

    Maybe he does have more to give, but I don’t see this turning into a PK Subban situation, where the player was bridged and then won a Norris Trophy.

    Nurse just hasn’t shown that type of offensive ability, and he was brutal in limited minutes on the PP last season (GF/60 = 1.59). In comparison, Klef was 5.55, Benning was 5.72, and Russell was 6.86 (the latter in very limited minutes).

    Next season, one of Bouchard or Bear will be up, and that means even less PP time for Nurse.

    From his perspective…this is a weird gamble to take. He’s banking on becoming an elite evens guy +/- elite PK guy. If he tries to bring advanced stats into it (denied zone entries, for example), he’ll have to explain away his mediocrity at the outlet pass.

    Even if he improves in all these areas, he is still screwed comp-wise if someone like Hanifin takes off.

    I like E.Bear,
    I don’t see him as a lock to be an NHL regular, this year or next.
    Your post does not suggest that either, but I have read many many posts stating that he will be a regular contributor no later than 19/20.
    He has a long way to go,
    And I will be pulling for him every step

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    Absolutely, Ethan Bear remains far from a sure thing.

    There is no doubt he can pass the puck at an NHL level but that alone is not enough.

  32. YKOil says:

    Ryan: I agree with him in principle. Signing Russell for the 2rd slot with term, premium dollars, trade protection, and the last year signing bonus was an unmitigated disaster. No upside from day one.

    One litmus test for stupidity is considering the trade value at any time after a contract was signed. Russell’s was negative value from the moment it was inked.

    Bad contract even when it was just being discussed. Not really ‘tradeable’ until year 4 the way it is set up (the possibility opens up in year 3 but it’s still a big stretch to actually trade that contract).

    At $4 million per year it may have worked as a 3 year deal with the NMC-NTC for the first two years and a 15 team list kicking in on year 3. Make it 5.0 / 4.0 / 3.0 with a signing bonus of $2 million in year 3 and you have a tradeable contract that still gives the player a lot of protection.

    On a 4-year term the whole thing starts to fall apart.

    Thinking that we may have to lose one of Nurse, Larsson or Klefbom because we have to protect Russell in the (anticipated) 20/21 expansion draft makes me very sad and very angry. Even if he is traded with a sweetener, the sweetener represents a price that should never have had to be paid.

    The Russell contract is a massive failure on the part of PC. MASSIVE.

  33. YKOil says:

    Bling:
    I’m surprised to hear that Nurse is leaving a ~5 million AAV contract on the table.

    Maybe he does have more to give, but I don’t see this turning into a PK Subban situation, where the player was bridged and then won a Norris Trophy.

    Nurse just hasn’t shown that type of offensive ability, and he was brutal in limited minutes on the PP last season (GF/60 = 1.59). In comparison, Klef was 5.55, Benning was 5.72, and Russell was 6.86 (the latter in very limited minutes).

    Next season, one of Bouchard or Bear will be up, and that means even less PP time for Nurse.

    From his perspective…this is a weird gamble to take. He’s banking on becoming an elite evens guy +/- elite PK guy. If he tries to bring advanced stats into it (denied zone entries, for example), he’ll have to explain away his mediocrity at the outlet pass.

    Even if he improves in all these areas, he is still screwed comp-wise if someone like Hanifin takes off.

    Was talking with a friend about this just the other day. I like the fact he is betting on himself but really, barring a leap we haven’t seen a hint of yet, he is only hurting himself.

    Barring a season-ending Klefbom injury (please Gords, no), Benning has a better chance of turning into a primary point producer imo.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil:

    Thinking that we may have to lose one of Nurse, Larsson or Klefbom because we have to protect Russell in the (anticipated) 20/21 expansion draft makes me very sad and very angry.Even if he is traded with a sweetener, the sweetener represents a price that should never have had to be paid.

    I can’t imagine any scenario where they don’t buy out that last year as opposed to protecting him.

  35. Scungilli Slushy says:

    As for Russell, sometimes you just need a player. Sometimes when you have to rebalance the ‘room’ you take who’s not a pain in the ass as opposed to another wild card in the sense you don’t know them.

    Sure Russell isn’t my ideal, but given the chaos of the Oilers, the calls from inside the house, a pathetic prospect pool, in PCs shoes I might have done the same thing and rolled on trading the player in year 3-4.

    The current state of the league has made reasonable player movement hard. Add that it’s not an actual free market, it’s closed, restricted by a contract, and very small.

    If craziness continues, as long as the OBC remains we won’t truly be able to assign blame, but we will have ‘new’ faces. Ughhh.

    I hope things head right and weirdness finally stops. They aren’t in a bad place now if good things above the players happens.

  36. Johnny skid says:

    Pescador: Sometimes it feels good to get screwed.
    Being on the bottom, doesn’t always mean you’re losing

    i endorse this comment.

  37. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: I can’t imagine any scenario where they don’t buy out that last year as opposed to protecting him.

    Yeah, that’s a nice 3 m buyout cap hit + 500k the following year. The 4rth year signing bonus is a real kick in the pants.

  38. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If you look at the prospect pool, it is now stocked with two way players.

    Imagine a D corp that perhaps lacks Doughty, but has 6 two way D and quality. With more on the farm for call up.

    Also a group of forwards including the best player in the game, that have speed and two way play.

    To me this is shaping up far better than we’ve seen in decades. As LT says, it may have to wait which is a shame. However in the olden days 5 years was the plan to win a Cup with Gretzky, who to this point was better than Connor.

    I’m not patient about winning the Cup, but if they can get it within 5 years of Connor it would be a success and I’ll convince myself of that.

    The key is in getting the most out of the others as Sather did. Messier, Kurri, Coffey et al needed to be pushed and guided. They didn’t have what Gretzky had, or Connor has, and a cagey team leverages that.

    Like the Pens. It’s so rare and it can push the limits higher than teams that don’t have a generational.

  39. who says:

    Ryan: I agree with him in principle. Signing Russell for the 2rd slot with term, premium dollars, trade protection, and the last year signing bonus was an unmitigated disaster. No upside from day one.

    One litmus test for stupidity is considering the trade value at any time after a contract was signed. Russell’s was negative value from the moment it was inked.

    Russell is terrible at defending zone entries and outlet passes.

    His micro stats are brutal.

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.turtoro#!/vizhome/2-yearA3ZPlayerComps/ComparisonDashboard

    Substitute Lucic for Russell in your post and it reads just as true.
    And he’s signed for more term and more money. Please explain how the Russell contract is worse.

  40. Ribs says:

    Karlsson seems like a strange dude. Straight up dismisses Edmonton as a landing spot with McDavid here? I’d love to know his thoughts behind this. I haven’t read anything that said Chiarelli would only take him with an extension ready to go. A rental year would have been so bad in Edmonton?

    It would have been great for the Oilers to nab him but with that ankle issue I’m sort of glad they didn’t take the bet. It is fun to imagine what could have been, though!

  41. Ryan says:

    who: Substitute Lucic for Russell in your post and it reads just as true.
    And he’s signed for more term and more money. Please explain how the Russell contract is worse.

    I had previously responded but WordPress ate my comment.

    The key difference was that at the time the Lucic contract was signed, it was at least a reasonable bet that you’d get 3-4 good years out of it. It didn’t work out that way, however.

    Both are bad contracts. Everyone knew that the Lucuc contract was setup as a guilty pleasure in that you’d have fun now, but pay for it later.

    The Russell contract was setup that you’d regret it the moment it was signed until the 4rth year signing bonus kicked you in the arse.

  42. Ryan says:

    Ryan: I had previously responded but WordPress ate my comment.

    The key difference was that at the time the Lucic contract was signed, it was at least a reasonable bet that you’d get 3-4 good years out of it. It didn’t work out that way, however.

    Both are bad contracts. Everyone knew that the Lucuc contract was setup as a guilty pleasure in that you’d have fun now, but pay for it later.

    The Russell contract was setup that you’d regret it the moment it was signed until the 4rth year signing bonus kicked you in the arse.

    There was also reasonable evidence that the Oilers paid market value for Lucic at the time.

    There were only vague references that Calgary was interested in Russell.

    Like always the Oilers bid against themselves to sign a left shot 4/5 on his way to 5/6 stay at home dman they didn’t need.

  43. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I”ll bet you $100 to your/mine favorite charity that he doesn’t.

    I think I’m a favourite here, but its really close.

    Geez, that’s a risky one. If the Sharks have some success I can see him signing. I think if Karlsson answered honestly today, he’s taking the highest bidder on a team with a reasonable chance to win. Nine months from now I can see that changing. Really interesting wager though.

  44. Ribs says:

    Who doesn’t re-sign in San Jose? Great organisation, warm weather, team is always competitive, there’s no pressure to win in the playoffs…

  45. Pescador says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    If you look at the prospect pool, it is now stocked with two way players.

    Imagine a D corp that perhaps lacks Doughty, but has 6 two way D and quality. With more on the farm for call up.

    Also a group of forwards including the best player in the game, that have speed and two way play.

    To me this is shaping up far better than we’ve seen in decades. As LT says, it may have to wait which is a shame. However in the olden days 5 years was the plan to win a Cup with Gretzky, who to this point was better than Connor.

    I’m not patient about winning the Cup, but if they can get it within 5 years of Connor it would be a success and I’ll convince myself of that.

    The key is in getting the most out of the others as Sather did. Messier, Kurri, Coffey et al needed to be pushed and guided. They didn’t have what Gretzky had, or Connor has, and a cagey team leverages that.

    Like the Pens. It’s so rare and it can push the limits higher than teams that don’t have a generational.

    great post
    I appreciate your optimism,
    I’ll drink this milkshake

  46. Bling says:

    YKOil,

    I am also a believer in Benning.

    There are people who want to see a veteran guy brought in to play 2RD, but Benning has done basically everything one could reasonably ask the last two seasons. If you exclude the dip in play post-concussion, he has been even better.

    Everyone wants to see the underdog or the late draft pick make a wave, but guess what, they need the opportunity.

    It’s time to give him a shot at 2RD and see what happens, IMO. My feeling is that he thrives in that role.

  47. J-Bo says:

    I know you’re just worrying every which way, but last time Sekera was injured you warned of the importance of replacing him LT. It seems Chiarelli is damned either way based on your statement to keep the ltir money. The smart play is still to bring in a veteran replacement for Sekera not save it in case the goaltending fails. If balance is still the focus, he needs to find a right shot veteran defender to play 2r.

  48. who says:

    Ryan: There was also reasonable evidence that the Oilers paid market value for Lucic at the time.

    There were only vague references that Calgary was interested in Russell.

    Like always the Oilers bid against themselves to sign a left shot 4/5 on his way to 5/6 stay at home dman they didn’t need.

    I guess we see it differently
    I think the Lucic deal was a worse contract the day it was signed than Russell’s. Too much term and money.
    I also think that Russell has been better at 2RD than Lucic has at 2LW.

  49. Bank Shot says:

    OriginalPouzar: I can’t imagine any scenario where they don’t buy out that last year as opposed to protecting him.

    Why don’t they just trade him?

    His real salary will only be $2.5 million. That’s cheap.

    Sekera’s deal on the other hand will be unmovable.

  50. Dee Dee says:

    One thing the passing of time does is slowly erase the pain.

    Look at the Oilers team Chiarelli inherited when he started here.
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000412015.html

    Sort the Roster by +- and see that only 1 player had a positive +-, and that was Steve Pinizzotto who was at a massive +1 with 4 points in 18 games.

    A goal differential of -131, with 324 goals against (3.95 goals per game)

    And what a stellar defense that included Nikita Nikitin, Keith Aulie, Mark Fayne and Andrew Ference.

    The Goalies were Ben Scrivens (.890) and Viktor Fasth (.888)

    Yes last year sucked and it was a big step backwards. But that 2015 team was so freaking bad and the hockey was so crappy to watch.

    Chiarelli started in a 10 foot hole and will probably pay the price, but Man he was given a massive shit pile to fix.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: Yeah, that’s a nice 3 m buyout cap hit + 500k the following year. The 4rth year signing bonus is a real kick in the pants.

    Oh, its a terrible scenario, 100% – still better than protecting Russell and having to expose one of Larsson, Nurse, Klefbom (in my opinion).

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ribs:
    Karlsson seems like a strange dude. Straight up dismisses Edmonton as a landing spot with McDavid here? I’d love to know his thoughts behind this. I haven’t read anything that said Chiarelli would only take him with an extension ready to go. A rental year would have been so bad in Edmonton?

    It would have been great for the Oilers to nab him but with that ankle issue I’m sort of glad they didn’t take the bet. It is fun to imagine what could have been, though!

    Ribs:
    Who doesn’t re-sign in San Jose? Great organisation, warm weather, team is always competitive, there’s no pressure to win in the playoffs…

    Didn’t you just answer your own question about why he wouldn’t want to come to Edmonton.

    At the end of the day, I never believed that McDavid was going to make Edmonton attractive to free agents and its proven not to be the case.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bling:
    YKOil,

    I am also a believer in Benning.

    There are people who want to see a veteran guy brought in to play 2RD, but Benning has done basically everything one could reasonably ask the last two seasons. If you exclude the dip in play post-concussion, he has been even better.

    Everyone wants to see the underdog or the late draft pick make a wave, but guess what, they need the opportunity.

    It’s time to give him a shot at 2RD and see what happens, IMO. My feeling is that he thrives in that role.

    I agree that we need to give Benning a shot at the 2RD spot and his being able to handle that spot is a key to the season.

    At the same time, via my eye test and the numbers, Benning has done very well on the 3rd pairing in his shot pro career but has struggled every time he’s been asked to move up the lineup.

    Relying on him as 2RD going in to camp is a big risk but it is where we are at. He is another year older and developed and a year further removed from his concussion so I am hopeful he can step up (although I was hopeful he could step up last year as well).

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot: Why don’t they just trade him?

    His real salary will only be $2.5 million. That’s cheap.

    Sekera’s deal on the other hand will be unmovable.

    Yes, trading him is the better option, however it may not be do-able. He still has trade protection and has to submit a 15 team list. Actually, at the time of the expansion draft, we are probably still in the previous year’s trade protection regime so he has to submit a 10 team trade list. There is absolutely no guarantee we will be able to trade him.

    My buyout option is only if we aren’t able to move him and he’s on the roster as the expansion draft approaches.

  55. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: At the end of the day, I never believed that McDavid was going to make Edmonton attractive to free agents and its proven not to be the case.

    Ain’t it amazing what going from pre-season cup contender to pre-season also-ran does to a fanbase.

  56. hunter1909 says:

    Also, Patrick Maroon loves the Oilers.

    Brodziak; wasn’t he always resisting coming to Edmonton? Now he’s suddenly at training camp.

    Imo Brodziak’s might turn out to be a real leader for this young team.

    That’s two players who like these new Oilers.

  57. Genjutsu says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Didn’t you just answer your own question about why he wouldn’t want to come to Edmonton.

    At the end of the day, I never believed that McDavid was going to make Edmonton attractive to free agents and its proven not to be the case.

    There’s a bunch of reasons why it will always be a hard sell:

    The winters are very tough.

    It can’t offer many thing that the very rich grow accustomed to.

    Most UFAs are married and the wives don’t want the groupies.

    Culture of losing exists here though that may change.

  58. Professor Q says:

    hunter1909: Ain’t it amazing what going from pre-season cup contender to pre-season also-ran does to a fanbase.

    We’ll see what happens to Toronto now that they’re the new projected Pre-Season Cup Favourites.

  59. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: This will be the fourth time I bring it up to you but you never respond.You harp on things like leverage and arbitration rights and all the nuances of contract negotiations but then totally ignore the difference between UFA and RFA contracts – I don’t get it.

    Nurse is a way better defensemen.than Russell. in an open market he would be paid way more than Russell. He basically is only asking to be paid roughly equivalent to Russell. So that is taking into account the difference between an RFA and UFA. i.e. Nurse isn’t asking to be paid more than Russell, only roughly equivalent to him….roughly equivalent to a much inferior player.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Nurse is a waybetter defensemen.than Russell.in an open market he would be paid way more than Russell.He basically is only asking to be paid roughly equivalent to Russell. So that is taking into account the difference between an RFA and UFA.i.e. Nurse isn’t asking to be paid more than Russell, only roughly equivalent to him….roughly equivalent to a much inferior player.

    Russell, signed as a UFA, is a non-comparable and you know this.

    Also, we don’t know that he is looking for roughly equivalent to Russell. Taking aside the fact that a 3 year contract would be an awful term for the Oilers, the chances he wouldn’t be looking for greater than $4M on that term are close to zero in my opinion.

  61. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Russell, signed as a UFA, is a non-comparable and you know this.

    Also, we don’t know that he is looking for roughly equivalent to Russell. Taking aside the fact that a 3 year contract would be an awful term for the Oilers, the chances he wouldn’t be looking for greater than $4M on that term are close to zero in my opinion.

    Russell is a non-comparable only for arbitration. In a regular negotiation, one can use any comparable one wants to.

  62. JJS says:

    godot10: Russell is a non-comparable only for arbitration. In a regular negotiation, one can use any comparable one wants to.

    I agree in general terms but in the spirit of most second contract negotiations, they are using comparables. There is no way Russell’s name is being used as leverage. Russell, for better or worse, has earned street cred in the league and was (over)paid accordingly.

  63. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The fact that McDavid isn’t 110% of max makes it a value contract.

    If you don’t know this then I have no words.

    Exactly! Thank You! Its the single best contract signing in the NHL in I dont know how long…a decade? Two decades?

  64. Andy Dufresne says:

    Ribs:
    Karlsson seems like a strange dude. Straight up dismisses Edmonton as a landing spot with McDavid here? I’d love to know his thoughts behind this. I haven’t read anything that said Chiarelli would only take him with an extension ready to go. A rental year would have been so bad in Edmonton?

    It would have been great for the Oilers to nab him but with that ankle issue I’m sort of glad they didn’t take the bet. It is fun to imagine what could have been, though!

    It looks like Karlsson was thinking primarily about three things: (in no particular order)

    1) Money
    2) Where Can I win a Stanley Cup Now
    3) How do I keep my options open

    He controls his own destiny. He can sign with WHOEVER he wants to sign with next year!

    He is under obligation to NO ONE!

    Ottawa moved him to San Jose.

    Karlsson must have SUPREME confidence in his doctors…..

    IF he stays healthy this season, Summer 2019 he writes his own deal wherever he wants…….Tampa Bay or anywhere.

  65. Andy Dufresne says:

    Bling:
    I’m surprised to hear that Nurse is leaving a ~5 million AAV contract on the table.

    Maybe he does have more to give, but I don’t see this turning into a PK Subban situation, where the player was bridged and then won a Norris Trophy.

    Nurse just hasn’t shown that type of offensive ability, and he was brutal in limited minutes on the PP last season (GF/60 = 1.59). In comparison, Klef was 5.55, Benning was 5.72, and Russell was 6.86 (the latter in very limited minutes).

    Next season, one of Bouchard or Bear will be up, and that means even less PP time for Nurse.

    From his perspective…this is a weird gamble to take. He’s banking on becoming an elite evens guy +/- elite PK guy. If he tries to bring advanced stats into it (denied zone entries, for example), he’ll have to explain away his mediocrity at the outlet pass.

    Even if he improves in all these areas, he is still screwed comp-wise if someone like Hanifin takes off.

    The main reason I want Nurse on bridge deal is that I want him HUNGRY. I want him stoked to put up points, even if it costs a little on defense. Points get you paid….he knows that. Lets find out what hes capable of in terms of offense.

  66. Andy Dufresne says:

    Ryan: Ha. Now that I’ve taken the wager, we can all now rest assured that Karlsson won’t re-sign with San Jose. Sorry Doug.

    Money well spent! Thank You!

  67. rickithebear says:

    Faulk is not a dman.
    But then again Nielsondoes not understand hockey structure like CHL scouts.
    Clearly a winning dman is not a priority if Faulk is mentioned.

    Fuck did you see the return for Karlsson.

    Ottawa traded a -28 unit Diff rover.
    For
    Tierney 1.09 125 fwd 1 cup core piece
    De Malo a Top 50 HD dman 2 of 3 yrs, 2/2 in HD sys. 1 of 3 needed HD d cup core piece
    J. Norris who looking like a potential top 125 fwd.
    Balcers who’s 20yr AHL season matches peers
    Schmaltz
    Ghodolibin
    Forsberg
    Trochek
    Reider
    Pearson
    M. Stone
    R. Strome

    1st rounder

    2nd rounder

    1st or 2nd rounder if signed
    Or
    1st rounder if on a EC roster in 18-19

    A real shot at 5-7 of 9/10 needed Cup Core base pieces.

    This is just a hugely one sided trade based on repeative conf/cup core.

    Best potential cup core based trade haul since Lindros trade?

    Dorion is a fucking genius.

    I am still laughing how historic this is.

    Jesus!
    Bloody Jesus.

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