Dear Mr. Fantasy

Do ‘early days’ training camp lineups mean anything? No. No. No no no no. In fact, things can change early or late, as the coach reaches individual and collective decisions across the roster. We don’t have to go back very far—the days between September 25 and 29 a year ago—to find an example of a major change in deployment for the Edmonton Oilers.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic made some big additions last week, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman joining the Edmonton staff. Daniel, Jonathan Willis, Minnia Feng, Pat McLean and me will deliver prose all winter long and there will be tons via the national desk from Tyler Dellow, Corey Pronman and Dom Luszczysyn. Special offer is here, less than $4 a month! Also, don’t forget to join us later this month (September 24, The Rec Room south side) for a get together and general merriment. I’m thrilled to be part of this group, hope you join us.

  • New Lowetide: RE 18-19: Ryan Strome and the Oilers long journey to competent third and fourth lines
  • New Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers fail in 2018-19, it will probably be the same reason they failed in 2017-18.
  • Eric Duhatschek: Connor McDavid knows what ails the Oilers and how to improve it.
  • Lowetide: RE 18-19: Leon Draisaitl and the pursuit of a second outscoring line in ’18-19
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers improve in ’18-19, they’ll do it on the back of special teams
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Ethan Bear is providing inspiration for Indigenous youth through his hockey camp.
  • Jonathan Willis: The arrival of Alex Chiasson gives the Oilers a crowd up front
  • The Athletic Cross Canada Tour Will hit Edmonton!
  • Lowetide: RE 18-19 Can the McDavid line lead the 2018-19 Oilers to the playoffs?
  • Corey Pronman: The most intriguing prospect to watch at camp for every NHL team.
  • Jonathan Willis: Three different KHL stars, three different paths to NHL success.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Bringing something different to the Oilers beat.
  • Dom Luszczyszyn: 2018-19 season preview Edmonton Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Who will win the McDavid-line lottery?
  • Lowetide: The 2018-19 Oilers and what may come.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the 2018-19 Oilers opening night roster

OILERS LINEUP SEPTEMBER 25, 2017

  • Patrick Maroon—Connor McDavid—Jesse Puljujarvi
  • Milan Lucic—Leon Draisaitl—Drake Caggiula
  • Jussi Jokinen—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Ryan Strome
  • Jujhar Khaira—Mark Letestu—Kailer Yamamoto
  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Kris Russell—Matt Benning
  • Dillon Simpson—Mark Fayne
  • Cam Talbot
  • (NaturalStatTrick)

Oilers lost 6-2 to Carolina, goals by Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan Strome. Cam Talbot gave up six goals on 29 shots. Todd McLellan stayed with the separation of 97 and 29 through training camp and preseason, by this time (I recall) most of us believing the season would start that way. The next game was the final one of preseason, the game McLellan hit shuffle.

OILERS LINEUP SEPTEMBER 30, 2017

  • Patrick Maroon—Connor McDavid—Leon Draisaitl
  • Milan Lucic—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Kailer Yamamoto
  • Jussi Jokinen—Ryan Strome—Drake Caggiula
  • Jujhar Khaira—Mark Letestu—Jesse Puljujarvi
  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Kris Russell—Matt Benning
  • Darnell Nurse—Eric Gryba
  • Cam Talbot
  • (Natural Stat Trick)

Oilers lost this game too, 3-2 against Vancouver on just 17 shots on Cam Talbot. Todd McLellan has made the move, Leon Draisaitl skating with Connor McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins on the No. 2 line. A less discussed result had Jesse Puljujarvi moving down to the No. 4 line, signalling the young Finn had lost the skill RW job. Edmonton made it almost all the way through preseason with 97 and 29 on separate lines, but it was not to be—or at least for the 2017-18 campaign.

OPENING NIGHT 2017-18

  • Patrick Maroon—Connor McDavid—Leon Draisaitl
  • Milan Lucic—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Kailer Yamamoto
  • Jussi Jokinen—Ryan Strome—Drake Caggiula
  • Jujhar Khaira—Mark Letestu—Zack Kassian
  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Kris Russell—Matt Benning
  • Darnell Nurse—Eric Gryba
  • Cam Talbot
  • (NaturalStatTrick)

Todd McLellan gets credit and blame for lineup decisions, but I often wonder about the real reasons behind these things. More on that in a minute. It was the perfect game, a trio of markers by Connor McDavid and a clean slate for Cam Talbot. It was here, and like that, it was gone.

YESTERDAY’S NHL LINES AND PAIRINGS

  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Connor McDavid—Ty Rattie
  • Milan Lucic—Leon Draisaitl—Tobias Rieder
  • Jujhar Khaira—Ryan Strome—Jesse Puljujarvi
  • Drake Caggiula—Kyle Brodziak—Zack Kassian
  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Kevin Gravel—Matt Benning
  • Jakub Jerabek—Kris Russell
  • Cam Talbot (Mikko Koskinen)

COMMENTS FROM THE COACH

  • Todd McLellan on Jesse Puljujarvi: Jesse I think he’s an important part of our team. I think that we want to put him in a situation where he feels comfortable and confident. In my opinion and just talking to him and some of his teammates that’s been with Stromer and we want him to evolve into a real good player. Now a real good player, the definitions pretty broad, is he going to be the Patrick Laine 50 goal scorer, I don’t know, but I think that his evolution and development is going the right way and we’ll continue.

I parse words, it’s a thing I do. The item by McLellan about talking to Puljujarvi and some of this teammates informing the decision is fascinating. My  guess is that the young man is still dealing with being in the right spot (especially in the offensive zone) and learning to read off of his linemates. He’ll get there, these kinds of barriers usually last until the player in question makes himself impossible to ignore by pushing his own line beyond expectations. I sincerely believe JP has that ability, we should see some signs here in the coming days.

The roster above is a reasonable estimate of the NHL lines divided between two teams Friday. It’s about what we imagined, with Darnell Nurse’s absence changing things on the blue and I don’t have the extra players listed (guesses would be Pontus Aberg, Kevin Gravel, Evan Bouchard).

YESTERDAY’S AHL LINES AND PAIRINGS

  • Patrick Russell—Cooper Marody—Kailer Yamamoto
  • Tyler Benson—Brad Malone—Pontus Aberg
  • Joe Gambardella—Ryan McLeod—Alex Chiasson
  • Tyler Vesel—Josh Currie—Cameron Hebig
  • Keegan Lowe—Ethan Bear
  • Jason Garrison—Evan Bouchard
  • Caleb Jones—William Lagesson
  • Al Montoya (Shane Starrett)

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

  • On the road to: Europe to play NJD (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Boston, NYR, Winnipeg (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Boston, Nashville, Pittsburgh, Washington (Expected 1-3-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Nashville, Chicago (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Minnesota (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 4-6-1, 9 points in  11 games 
  • Current results: 0-0-0, 0 points after no games

I reserve the right to tweak this, to re-pave the 2018-19 highway based on changes to the roster and emerging prospects. That said, the first month of the year will test the mettle of all men in Oilers colors.

PLAN B

Dean Bennett of Canadian Press reported on the Peter Chiarelli press conference (here). I’ll drill down on PC’s media avail tomorrow (as you know I have a 24-hour policy on mainstream media items) but Mr. Bennett struck at the heart of the most important passage. Worth a read.

SATURDAY SPORTS EXTRA

Today at noon we begin Saturday Sports Extra for another year, on TSN1260. There are some changes for this year, including a shorter show (noon to 2pm), and I will be the host. Brennan Klak is the producer, we’ll tee up Saturday sports and review the events of the week. For today, Oilers training camp, the Bruins in China (heh), CFL weekend and NFL Week 2 will be the main topics. Confirmed guest: Travis Yost from TSN and I am reaching out to a CFL guest as well.

A quick note of thanks to Paul Almeida, whose tireless work on SSE built the brand beautifully over several years. Paul never told you, but between his own business, his family and the work of the show it was a heavy load. The only time I recall him being upset was missing the early portions of his son’s hockey games on Saturdays, I imagine he’ll be there today and that’s exactly where he should be this afternoon. We’ll miss him.

With that understood, we still have some room for show sponsors. I’m not involved in the selling of the shows (please contact Chris Sadleir at chris.sadleir@bellmedia.ca) but wanted to let you know there are sponsorships available. See you at noon!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

136 Responses to "Dear Mr. Fantasy"

  1. leadfarmer says:

    The show is brought to you by
    Gently used pitchforks at Woodguys house
    Come to Woodguys house
    For all your pitchfork needs

  2. Jethro Tull says:

    leadfarmer:
    The show is brought to you by
    Gently used pitchforks at Woodguys house
    Come to Woodguys house
    For all your pitchfork needs

    I don’t like your pitch. These things sell themselves. I however take a job lot of blunt axes.

  3. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s 2018-19 Death March™ is Back!!

    Here’s how you enter:

    Predict the final points total of the Oilers 2018-19 season.

    Tie break: how many goals does Yakupov score in the KHL?

    That’s it!

    Contest open until puck drop in Europe.

  4. luc27 says:

    hunter1909,

    99 points
    11 goals for yakupov

  5. J-Bo says:

    Paul will be greatly missed this year. You and Paul were far and away my favourite sports show available anywhere. I always hoped they would hire him to join you on the Lowdown on a permanent basis. Paul, if you’re out there, have a blessed time away from radio enjoying your family and then sell your business next year and join Al on the radio fulltime!!

  6. innercitysmytty says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter,

    98 points for the Oilers

    12 goals for Yak City

  7. J-Bo says:

    Oilers = 97 points
    Yakupov = 23 goals

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think the lines from yesterday give an indication of what the coaches think the opening night lineup will look like at this point which, of course, is subject to change as camp progresses.

    Of course, all the verbal last year was getting Strome back to his early season shot rates as he was going to be McDavid’s shooter – he lasted less than 2 full exhibition games as 1RW (and I believe he even had a goal in there).

    It was somewhat mind-boggling that he was almost never seen there again (I think he had apx 50 minutes with McDavid 5 on 5).

  9. dustrock says:

    They got the red line
    They’re trying to read signs
    They’re Boston Bruins and they’re playing in China

    They got the answers to lineup questions
    all the hockey players that are playing in China

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    The honest “Yes, I do” answer to the question regarding a plan if Nurse isn’t there for game 1 was the most intriguing part of the media avail to me.

    I’m nervous as to what it could mean as it seems like it would be a panic move, those rarely work out well.

    My thoughts on Faulk do not need to be repeated.

    Yes, a good start to the season in imperative – if the team can go fake 500 in October, it will set them up great for the season. At the same time, I’m generally against making moves to acquire fixes for short term problems. Nurse not being in the lineup is a short term solution and I fear a move that has longer term implications that may be negative.

  11. stephen sheps says:

    So I’m at the Ottawa Hockey Analytics conference. Lots of brilliant people here, including Vollman and Micah Blake McCurdy. Scott Cullen from TSN is the MC and even a few people who work for clubs both in the NHL and in other leagues.

    Mostly though there’s a panel on right now with some PhD students who are developing some crazy complex metrics. If I was any good at math at all, I’d be trying to explain some of it, but I’m just a sociologist.

    Regardless, innovation is happening before our very eyes. It’s real, and it’s spectacular.

  12. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The honest “Yes, I do” answer to the question regarding a plan if Nurse isn’t there for game 1 was the most intriguing part of the media avail to me.

    I’m nervous as to what it could mean as it seems like it would be a panic move, those rarely work out well.

    My thoughts on Faulk do not need to be repeated.

    Yes, a good start to the season in imperative – if the team can go fake 500 in October, it will set them up great for the season.At the same time, I’m generally against making moves to acquire fixes for short term problems.Nurse not being in the lineup is a short term solution and I fear a move that has longer term implications that may be negative.

    I wouldn’t read too much my into the comments. Afterall, he’s not going to say he doesn’t have a plan.

  13. €√¥£€^$ says:

    hunter1909,

    98 pts
    17 goals

  14. Lowetide says:

    stephen sheps:
    So I’m at the Ottawa Hockey Analytics conference. Lots of brilliant people here, including Vollman and Micah Blake McCurdy. Scott Cullen from TSN is the MC and even a few people who work for clubs both in the NHL and in other leagues.

    Mostly though there’s a panel on right now with some PhD students who are developing some crazy complex metrics. If I was any good at math at all, I’d be trying to explain some of it, but I’m just a sociologist.

    Regardless, innovation is happening before our very eyes. It’s real, and it’s spectacular.

    Love it! Thanks for sharing!

  15. stephen sheps says:

    tileguy: Can you see if the eyes are glazed over from people listening to these new metrics? What would your interpretations be?

    there’s a dude talking about machine learning and video-based deep learning networks and literally building a system that can do automated frame by frame analysis. nobody’s glazed over in this talk. this shit’s insanely cool.

    Edit: the potential applications are incredible. He’s hoping the tech could be used for measuring zone time, player tendencies, positioning for gf/ga situations, identify systems, set plays and individual and team based patterns (i.e. zone entry types and the effectiveness therein)

  16. selective sam poll says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter
    100 points
    20 goals for yak
    thank you.

  17. jtblack says:

    stephen sheps:
    So I’m at the Ottawa Hockey Analytics conference. Lots of brilliant people here, including Vollman and Micah Blake McCurdy. Scott Cullen from TSN is the MC and even a few people who work for clubs both in the NHL and in other leagues.

    Mostly though there’s a panel on right now with some PhD students who are developing some crazy complex metrics. If I was any good at math at all, I’d be trying to explain some of it, but I’m just a sociologist.

    Regardless, innovation is happening before our very eyes. It’s real, and it’s spectacular.

    OH WOW. Very Cool

  18. jtblack says:

    LT. thanks again for your post. Grateful as always. Your post makes Saturdays Mornings kind of like Christmas!!

  19. dustrock says:

    stephen sheps: there’s a dude talking about machine learning and video-based deep learning networks and literally building a system that can do automated frame by frame analysis. nobody’s glazed over in this talk. this shit’s insanely cool

    THEY CAN’T BUILD A MACHINE THAT CAN SHOW HOW GOOD A PLAYER IS IN THE ROOM

  20. Bag of Pucks says:

    hunter1909,

    96 points
    13 goals

    Thanks for going to all the trouble again. We appreciate it!

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Caggulia, who was out sick yesterday, is back on the ice today and, no surprise, he’s on a line with Brodziak and Kassian (Esposito was keeping it warm yesterday).

    This is good – the initial plan seems to be for Drake to be on the fourth line.

    With that said, who moves up when injuries or struggles hit the higher lines? Hopefully coach realizes that Drake, at this point, should not be higher than the fourth line.

  22. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer:
    The show is brought to you by
    Gently used pitchforks at Woodguys house
    Come to Woodguys house
    For all your pitchfork needs

    Torches?
    Also, 4 pointers are nice but every once in a while a like a nice 3 pronger

  23. 106 and 106 says:

    hunter1909,

    87 points
    15 goals

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Edit: Guess Drake’s listed in that spot but not on the ice and Esposito is filling in again.

    At least we know Drake is scheduled for 4LW.

  25. pitlickdinner says:

    stephen sheps,

    i’m right behind you to your left!

  26. expatfan says:

    hunter1909,

    93 points for oilers
    18 goals for Yak

  27. Munny says:

    LT,

    Thank you for the reminder of last year’s finish to the pre-season.

    The most striking thing to my tired, old eyes is that Talbot’s mediocre season was forecast by the pre-season games.

  28. Munny says:

    stephen sheps,

    That sounds expensive enough to be proprietary once developed and deployed.

  29. Jethro Tull says:

    Pescador: Torches?
    Also, 4 pointers are nice but every once in a while a like a nice 3 pronger

    Hahaha! Pronger. Classic.

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rogers Place with the “Nuge Chant” as Nuge opens the scoring!

  31. Wolfpack says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter,

    93 points

    14 goals for the Yak Attack

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nuge, Klef, Chiasson, Lagesson with goals in the first half today and its 2-2.

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I wouldn’t read too much my into the comments.Afterall, he’s not going to say he doesn’t have a plan.

    Fair enough but it was a pretty solid and confident sounding “Yes, I do”.

  34. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I think the lines from yesterday give an indication of what the coaches think the opening night lineup will look like at this point which, of course, is subject to change as camp progresses.

    Of course, all the verbal last year was getting Strome back to his early season shot rates as he was going to be McDavid’s shooter – he lasted less than 2 full exhibition games as 1RW (and I believe he even had a goal in there).

    It was somewhat mind-boggling that he was almost never seen there again (I think he had apx 50 minutes with McDavid 5 on 5).

    OriginalPouzar:
    I think the lines from yesterday give an indication of what the coaches think the opening night lineup will look like at this point which, of course, is subject to change as camp progresses.

    Of course, all the verbal last year was getting Strome back to his early season shot rates as he was going to be McDavid’s shooter – he lasted less than 2 full exhibition games as 1RW (and I believe he even had a goal in there).

    It was somewhat mind-boggling that he was almost never seen there again (I think he had apx 50 minutes with McDavid 5 on 5).

    Strome’s play at wing during his years in NYI, proved that he is not a winger, and much more comfortable at centre.

  35. Woogie63 says:

    Hockey News is reporting that Davidson excellent shot might place him on the CHB second unit power play.

    Who knew?

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like Ryan McLeod is having yet another good day in camp – as per Stauffer.

    For me, watching the three rookie camp games, he got better as the tournament went on and sounds like he’s continuing to do the same in main camp.

    Stuaffer thinks he’s earning himself a pre-season game or two.

  37. SwedishPoster says:

    Berglund with a goal and an assist through two periods of the SHL premiere. He good. I mean it’s early but I’d say there’s a pretty decent chance he’s considered one of the league’s top D by christmas.

  38. jp says:

    Oilman99:
    Strome’s play at wing during his years in NYI, proved that he is not a winger, and much more comfortable at centre.

    Why do people keep saying this? It’s not true.

    He had 1 very poor year on Tavares’s wing and 2 good to very good years primarily with Lee and Neilsen (sp). He was decidedly mediocre as a C on Long Island too.

    Edit: Apologies, it was 1 bad year with Tavares, 1 good year with Lee/Nelson.

  39. jp says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Very cool, hope he keeps it up.

  40. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Woogie63:
    Hockey News is reporting that Davidson excellent shot might place him on the CHB second unit power play.

    Who knew?

    Haha … hahahahaha.

    Let’s face it, Davidson never EARNED that opportunity here. He wasn’t CONSISTENT enough. Just ask Todd.

  41. texmex says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan,

    To me, that is more of an indication of the state of the Chicago’s blue line. BD is with his 5 nhl team (edm twice) which is telling IMO. He is a 7 or 8 D at best.

  42. RonnieB says:

    hunter1909,

    91 points
    7 goals for Yakupov

  43. leadfarmer says:

    texmex:
    Decidedly Skeptical Fan,

    To me, that is more of an indication of the state of the Chicago’s blue line. BD is with his 5 nhl team (edm twice) which is telling IMO. He is a 7 or 8 D at best.

    Yesterday it was Erik Gustaffson ( well maybe a week ago) now it’s Davidson. The blackhawks are sorting through our trash

  44. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    leadfarmer: Yesterday it was Erik Gustaffson ( well maybe a week ago) now it’s Davidson.The blackhawks are sorting through our trash

    I think you may be missing the point … we have been looking for 2PP D FOREVER. Who knew Davidson had an “excellent shot”?

  45. jp says:

    leadfarmer: Yesterday it was Erik Gustaffson ( well maybe a week ago) now it’s Davidson.The blackhawks are sorting through our trash

    Corey Potter is still playing pro in Germany. Just saying.

  46. jtblack says:

    jp: Why do people keep saying this? It’s not true.

    He had 1 very poor year on Tavares’s wing and 2 good to very good years primarily with Lee and Neilsen (sp). He was decidedly mediocre as a C on Long Island too.

    Edit: Apologies, it was 1 bad year with Tavares, 1 good year with Lee/Nelson.

    Strome said he prrefers to play C.
    .Best thing coaches can do his keep him at 3C and place him with decent wingers and see if he can saw off or better against the soft parade.

  47. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    stephen sheps:
    So I’m at the Ottawa Hockey Analytics conference. Lots of brilliant people here, including Vollman and Micah Blake McCurdy. Scott Cullen from TSN is the MC and even a few people who work for clubs both in the NHL and in other leagues.

    Mostly though there’s a panel on right now with some PhD students who are developing some crazy complex metrics. If I was any good at math at all, I’d be trying to explain some of it, but I’m just a sociologist.

    Regardless, innovation is happening before our very eyes. It’s real, and it’s spectacular.

    Cool beans!

    One thing I do wonder though (I was just thinking about this a couple days ago), is that what if one day someone comes up with some metrics and advanced stats that are so thorough and accurate, that it effectively takes out any guess work of which players are the right players to keep or draft. That would make the NHL (or whatever league those metrics are for) so predictable it would take out all the excitement of the game, Since everyone will already know which teams and players will dominate by default. Only truely bad luck and injuries will make any difference in a league with perfect stat metrics.

  48. Bling says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: I think you may be missing the point … we have been looking for 2PP D FOREVER. Who knew Davidson had an “excellent shot”?

    It was definitely known here that Davidson had a good shot.

    He had a lot of boosters in the org, at one time. Before his injury, there was a scout that said he was a top 4 D on any playoff team.

    I hope Davy does well. No one deserves the big money contract as much as he does.

  49. leadfarmer says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: I think you may be missing the point … we have been looking for 2PP D FOREVER. Who knew Davidson had an “excellent shot”?

    I think we’ve had our 2 pp guy in Klefbom. I think we’ve been looking for a 1 pp guy. And we need someone that can bat above 3rd pairing and function more than just a shot from the point.
    You want your point man to have a good shot from the point to spread out the d on the pp, but more than that you need someone that can setup the power play and distribute the puck.
    Davidson only checks the shot from the point part

  50. Jethro Tull says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Cool beans!

    One thing I do wonder though (I was just thinking about this a couple days ago), is that what if one day someone comes up with some metrics and advanced stats that are so thorough and accurate, that it effectively takes out any guess work of which players are the right players to keep or draft. That would make the NHL (or whatever league those metrics are for) so predictable it would take out all the excitement of the game, Since everyone will already know which teams and players will dominate by default. Only truely bad luck and injuries will make any difference in a league with perfect stat metrics.

    I thought that at first, but upon further reflection, hockey is too dynamic. Stats just tell you what a player does well or not. Apply that data at your discretion.

    Hockey seems to be a macro game as well as micro, though. Ten years ago, the big bruising teams ground out cup wins, negating skill. Smaller, faster, good passing players now negate this strategy. In time, another strategy to counter this, using a particular player type will emerge.

    However, good hockey players tend to be good at everything. Not too many of those, so we’re really only worried about how good our peripheral players play within our stratgic framework.

  51. Material Elvis says:

    Just got home from the morning scrimmage. It was very entertaining. The good players were all shining. Larsson and Bouchard can outlet pass better than any of the other D. Larsson was especially sharp today. McLeod stood out in all the right ways. How did this guy drop so far in the draft? Gravel is big, somewhat mobile, nowhere near good enough to replace Nurse. The AHL guys that stood out to me today: Benson, Lagesson, Jones. McDavid/RNH/Rattie line is very potent (big surprise). Koskinen was okay — he made a huge stop on (I believe) Chiasson in the first period that got a roar from the crowd. Overall he was okay.

  52. jp says:

    jtblack: Strome said he prrefers to play C.
    .Best thing coaches can do his keep him at 3C and place him with decent wingers and see if he can saw off or better against the soft parade.

    Sure, I’m not one of those advocating moving him to the wing, and he has said he’s more comfortable at C.

    But I was responding to a comment that Strome had ‘proven he is not a winger’ by his play in NY. That is not a true statement.

    FWIW Strome also said he’d be more than happy to play on McDavid’s wing, and I’m fine with him as a winger if it benefits the team.

  53. digger50 says:

    Strome needs to play where he can best help the team.

    This roster is now hitting me smack in the face. And it’s not good news. There is very little change. So playing everybody in the same spot, how are we expecting a different result??

    As we have little change, and a downgrade in the top six, we are counting on three things. Internal developement (playing better) , lack of injuries, and coaching.

    I was hoping the coaching would turn everything upside down. New starts. New perspectives, new opportunities.

    Davidson is a perfect example.Would Davidson be considered for PP2 here? Of course not. Why? Because they already know “who he is”. I question this. I think there are numerous players on this roster that have been cast in a role or type, or who have moved so much they were confused or failed to gain confidence or traction. One of the keys to success this season is to squeeeze value out of our complimentary players.

    We need change to come from somewhere.

    To be fair, maybe this is happening. I hope we see evidence of it soon. OR we see evidence that status quo IS the right play.

  54. Jethro Tull says:

    digger50,

    Don’t panic. Tobias Rieder changes everything……

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99:
    Strome’s play at wing during his years in NYI, proved that he is not a winger, and much more comfortable at centre.

    You’ve said this before but its not true – his best offensive season was primarily as a right winger with Brock Nelson and Frans Nielson as his primary centers.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    SwedishPoster: SWEDISHPOSTER says:
    September 15, 2018 at 11:33 am
    Berglund with a goal and an assist through two periods of the SHL premiere. He good. I mean it’s early but I’d say there’s a pretty decent chance he’s considered one of the league’s top D by christmas.

    Can’t wait for him (and maybe Joel P.) to come over next season.

    Thanks for the updates, I look forward to them.

  57. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    digger50:
    Strome needs to play where he can best help the team.

    This roster is now hitting me smack in the face. And it’s not good news. There is very little change. So playing everybody in the same spot, how are we expecting a different result??

    As we have little change, and a downgrade in the top six, we are counting on three things. Internal developement (playing better) , lack of injuries, and coaching.

    I was hoping the coaching would turn everything upside down. New starts. New perspectives, new opportunities.

    Davidson is a perfect example.Would Davidson be considered for PP2 here? Of course not. Why?Because they already know “who he is”.I question this. I think there are numerous players on this roster that have been cast in a role or type, or who have moved so much they were confused or failed to gain confidence or traction. One of the keysto success this season is to squeeeze value out of our complimentary players.

    We need change to come from somewhere.

    To be fair, maybe this is happening. I hope we see evidence of it soon. OR we see evidence that status quo IS the right play.

    First, great post!

    Second, if only the coaching staff could buy into this way of thinking.

    Finally, the coaching staff takes their lead from the head coach. The head coach is not new and his approach to the game is very unlikely to change. So I think it is correct to conclude that the status quo had better be the right play or the start of this season is going to be a nightmare.

  58. Bank Shot says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Hockey seems to be a macro game as well as micro, though. Ten years ago, the big bruising teams ground out cup wins, negating skill. Smaller, faster, good passing players now negate this strategy. In time, another strategy to counter this, using a particular player type will emerge.

    LA won 5 years ago. Washington won last year.

    You can definitely still win with a big, grindy team.

  59. Westchester Oil says:

    leadfarmer: Yesterday it was Erik Gustaffson ( well maybe a week ago) now it’s Davidson.The blackhawks are sorting through our trash

    You omitted Jordan Oesterle as well.

  60. --hudson-- says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: First, great post!

    Second, if only the coaching staff could buy into this way of thinking.

    Finally, the coaching staff takes their lead from the head coach. The head coach is not new and his approach to the game is very unlikely to change. So I think it is correct to conclude that the status quo had better be the right play or the start of this season is going to be a nightmare.

    McLellan seems aware of his bias on the incumbent players. It’s just an interview so it’s possible he’s not following through on his words, but it sounds like he’s pretty open to change.

    Source video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzEW9FxPdS0
    ————————————————–
    Q: {on coaching staff changes}
    A: Well first of all a fresh set of eyes and what that does is that allows just about every player in the locker room to have a fresh start. Even if you’ve had a tremendous year last year you’ve got a new group of eyes that you have to convince to create a first impression for. I’ve tried to be passive when it comes to describing what the old staff felt about players. What their demeanor is, how they react to certain situations. I want them to develop their own opinions. You know I might be wrong and it gives fresh life into some players. So we’ve done that…

    ————————————————–
    With the number of players who had a down year last season, I think you are right to point fingers at the coaching staff. I do think McLellan is a thoughtful man and he’s a hard working coach, not sure if that is enough.

    On Strome specifically, if you listen to him, he’s put time in preparing to play center. He’s skated more this summer, changed his stick so he can make plays better on his backhand. It could be that he wants to play center now and switching him back to wing will only screw up another year.

  61. bmclav says:

    Hunter thanks for doing this, please put me down for 94 points (miss you smytty) for the oil and 17 goals for yak city.

    Anyone go to the scrimmage today? I would have but I’m all the way in Rome, Italy enjoying a month of traveling 🙂 updates very much appreciated!

    GO OIL!

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Talbot practiced but didn’t participate in the scrimmage due to “mild lower body soreness”.

    That’s interesting.

  63. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Talbot practiced but didn’t participate in the scrimmage due to “mild lower body soreness”.

    That’s interesting.

    Haha. Yes … yes it is. I wonder what part of the lower body got overworked.

  64. godot10 says:

    Material Elvis:
    .McLeod stood out in all the right ways.How did this guy drop so far in the draft?

    The scouting reports on McLeod were all photos of Steve Kelly…i.e. McLeod dropped in the draft because he didn’t show enough offense…counting numbers…box cars.

  65. Richard S.S. says:

    Ryan McLeod, Center, Shoots Left, 6′ 2″ 200, 26G 44A in 68 GP and Skates exceptionally well. He broke out in the previous season’s playoffs 5G 15A in 20 GP and carried on with it. This is top-15 talent at the very least. I suspect the previous two years 7G 13A in 62 GP, then 9G 33A in 68 GP caused him to drop some. Something about commitment and consistency were “reportedly” his problem caused him to drop more. He just might be a 2018/2019 callup.

  66. PerryK says:

    95 for Oil. 21 goals for Yak.

  67. Mustard Tiger says:

    hunter1909,

    101 points
    23 goals for Yak

  68. pts2pndr says:

    Question to the group. Should we be concerned that Kailor Yamamoto has not shown substantialy better than his draft year in competition against his peers? I was expecting him to be more of a force in the two games against the Calgary group.

  69. theDjdj says:

    Lowetide, I have this weird issue on the site where new articles don’t appear. Even after refreshing the page. I have to actually log in to the site before the article will appear. Sounds like a bizarro caching issue on my phone (have yet to test with another browser) but thought I’d bring it to your attention

  70. Cameron says:

    hunter1909,

    Hey Hunter, put me down for 89 points on the season, and 14 Yakupov KHL goals

  71. SilverStreak says:

    pts2pndr,

    I saw Yamamoto in Red Deer….he was sooo very average in that game……flashing back to last years 9 games, he has not solved his major weakness…..” He can`t finish ” Im not at all certain he will make the big team this or any other year…..I would include him in a ” trade up ” situation for an experienced right winger with average size.

  72. fishman says:

    theDjdj,

    I have experienced same issue!!

  73. theDjdj says:

    fishman,

    Are you using an iPhone?

  74. Strapping Jocks says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter,
    Please put me down for:
    103 points for the Oil.
    17 goals for Yak.

  75. Material Elvis says:

    pts2pndr:
    Question to the group. Should we be concerned that Kailor Yamamoto has not shown substantialy better than his draft year in competition against his peers? I was expecting him to be more of a force in the two games against the Calgary group.

    In my opinion, he’s not a driver. I think he could be a solid complimentary player if he has a good center. Needs some seasoning in the AHL. I’m more excited about Benson, if he can stay healthy.

  76. fishman says:

    theDjdj,

    No Mac laptop, but I also have had same issue on my iPhone at times

  77. jp says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Ryan McLeod, Center, Shoots Left, 6′ 2″ 200, 26G 44A in 68 GP and Skates exceptionally well.He broke out in the previous season’s playoffs 5G 15A in 20 GP and carried on with it.This is top-15 talent at the very least.I suspect the previous two years 7G 13A in 62 GP, then 9G 33A in 68 GP caused him to drop some.Something about commitment and consistency were “reportedly” his problem caused him to drop more. He just might be a 2018/2019 callup.

    McLeod is going back to the OHL for 2018-19.

    He won’t be a callup unless the Oilers are injury ravaged enough to burn through all their signed pro forwards first, like happened on D with Sebastian Bisaillon back in 2007.

  78. SilverStreak says:

    I`m a strong believer in these two things :

    1. After a group of young men experienced a shit show like last year, and have taken it on themselves as the main cause of that shit show, combined with a real sense of “its now or never” for coaches and management ….desperate times will create huge change.

    2. it is way more fun being a positive thinker.

    3. Hunter, Put me down for 96 points and I dont give a shit what Yak does

  79. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Nuge, Klef, Chiasson, Lagesson with goals in the first half today and its 2-2.

    Whats the Corsi look like for the Oilers?

  80. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    fishman:
    theDjdj,

    I have experienced same issue!!

    Me too. Desktop running Windows 10 with MS Edge browser.

  81. jtblack says:

    jp: Sure, I’m not one of those advocating moving him to the wing, and he has said he’s more comfortable at C.

    But I was responding to a comment that Strome had ‘proven he is not a winger’ by his play in NY. That is not a true statement.

    FWIW Strome also said he’d be more than happy to play on McDavid’s wing, and I’m fine with him as a winger if it benefits the team.

    Yah for sure. whatever is best. I like RNH @ LW with Connor. RNH is going to put up 70+ pts. Connor will of course get his.

    Edm won’t be a consistent Cup threat until lines 2 – 4 can beat the comp or at a minimum , saw off.

    So I prefer Leon @ 2C, Strome @ 3C and Brodziak @ 4C. Coaching staff can plug and play the wingers.

    Just My Opinion!!

  82. Material Elvis says:

    godot10: The scouting reports on McLeod were all photos of Steve Kelly…i.e. McLeod dropped in the draft because he didn’t show enough offense…counting numbers…box cars.

    I get it. He is not a naturally gifted scorer and likely won’t put up big points in the NHL (60+). But I envision him being a very good forechecking winger, who can pk and play up the line up. If everything falls right for him, he has top 6 potential (he can keep up with McDavid) He is standing out at this stage, which is definitely intriguing, and likely better than most of his 2nd round peers in their respective camps. One more year of junior and a year in the AHL, and this guy might be ready.

  83. jtblack says:

    theDjdj:
    Lowetide, I have this weird issue on the site where new articles don’t appear. Even after refreshing the page. I have to actually log in to the site before the article will appear. Sounds like a bizarro caching issue on my phone (have yet to test with another browser) but thought I’d bring it to your attention

    me too. I just go to Oilershockey.com and load his article from there. Always loads the new one regardless of my cache

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    Question to the group. Should we be concerned that Kailor Yamamoto has not shown substantialy better than his draft year in competition against his peers? I was expecting him to be more of a force in the two games against the Calgary group.

    For a guy drafted 22nd overall, it shouldn’t be expected that he is ready for the NHL until at least his draft plus 3 year. I expected more out of him in the rookie games as well but need to take a step back and realize that, aside from Bouchard, the guys that stood out were older – Benson (draft plus 3), Marody (draft plus 4), Jones (draft plus 4).

    Dube, who stood out for Calgary is also draft plus 3.

    I need to remind myself that Yamamoto is not a can’t-miss NHLer. I believe he’ll turn in to an every day NHLer in the top 6 but its not a certainty.

  85. jtblack says:

    SilverStreak:
    pts2pndr,

    I saw Yamamoto in Red Deer….he was sooo very average in that game……flashing back to last years 9 games, he has not solved his major weakness…..” He can`t finish ”Im not at all certain he will make the big team this or any other year…..I would include him in a ” trade up ” situation for an experienced right winger with average size.

    I think Yammy’s progression is slightly behind what the Oilers would have hoped for.

    BUT I went on the record at draftt time and predixted Yammy would need 3 – 4 yrs before being ready. Hes played his last year of junior. I hope he plays 1 full year of AHL. Then next year maybe he splits time in NHL and AHL and then he finallty arrives in 2021.

  86. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar: For a guy drafted 22nd overall, it shouldn’t be expected that he is ready for the NHL until at least his draft plus 3 year.I expected more out of him in the rookie games as well but need to take a step back and realize that, aside from Bouchard, the guys that stood out were older – Benson (draft plus 3), Marody (draft plus 4), Jones (draft plus 4).

    Dube, who stood out for Calgary is also draft plus 3.

    I need to remind myself that Yamamoto is not a can’t-miss NHLer. I believe he’ll turn in to an every day NHLer in the top 6 but its not a certainty.

    Well said OP.

    There are a whole bunch of things he can work on in the AHL.

    He is still 19! (20 in Sept). What would be concerning is if he has an average year in the AHL. But I think he will be in that .65 – .9 range this year which would represent Good Arrows!

  87. jtblack says:

    Say what we want about PC, but the Oilers have there best group of Legitimate Prospects in some time. And considering Connor (21) & Drai (22) have already arrived this gives me hope for 2 years out.

    In 2 years one would expect Bouchard, Yamamoto, Benson & maaaybe Mcleod to be part of the NHL club on Entry level deals. #CupBound

  88. Material Elvis says:

    Not sure if anyone posted this but Zack Kassian threw a high hit on Matt Benning today. Not sure why you would target your teammates head in a scrimmage game. I would be pissed if I was Benning.

  89. Bling says:

    I don’t think Yamamoto’s perceived mediocre performance so far means anything at all.

    I didn’t watch the games, but there were a lot of positive comments on how tenacious he is on the forecheck, how there is no quit in his game, and how he was setting his teammates up well.

    Those things are going to stand out even more once he gets some breaks around the net.

  90. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    For those having issues with the new article loading, this has been covered fairly extensively after LT switched to a secure (https) page.

    You need to log in, regardless of browser or platform.

  91. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Material Elvis:
    Not sure if anyone posted this but Zack Kassian threw a high hit on Matt Benning today.Not sure why you would target your teammates head in a scrimmage game. I would be pissed if I was Benning.

    It’s things like this that keep him from being used higher up in the lineup. He isn’t good at the control needed to be a top level player, especially attention to detail.

    Which is fine, he’s made a nice career in the best league in the world. He’ll keep it as long as he’s a good bottom 6 player because of his skating and toughness.

  92. Richard S.S. says:

    The Average NHL Coach must rely on two or more Assistants to help shoulder the workload. There are too few hours in the day and much too much to do for one person to do it all. Better Teams need better people in those positions. The Oilers are doing much better this year.

  93. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack:
    Say what we want about PC, but the Oilers have there best group of Legitimate Prospects in some time.And considering Connor (21) & Drai (22) have already arrived this gives me hope for 2 years out.

    In 2 years one would expect Bouchard, Yamamoto, Benson & maaaybe Mcleod to be part of the NHL club on Entry level deals. #CupBound

    And if it was for Chia we’d have a whole bunch of legitimate all stars on the roster

  94. McNuge93 says:

    OriginalPouzar: For a guy drafted 22nd overall, it shouldn’t be expected that he is ready for the NHL until at least his draft plus 3 year.I expected more out of him in the rookie games as well but need to take a step back and realize that, aside from Bouchard, the guys that stood out were older – Benson (draft plus 3), Marody (draft plus 4), Jones (draft plus 4).

    Dube, who stood out for Calgary is also draft plus 3.

    I need to remind myself that Yamamoto is not a can’t-miss NHLer. I believe he’ll turn in to an every day NHLer in the top 6 but its not a certainty.

    Yes, I think we are so used to picks in the 1 to 10 range that we are not realistic with lower picks. A full year in the AHL would be good for his development.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    Say what we want about PC, but the Oilers have there best group of Legitimate Prospects in some time.And considering Connor (21) & Drai (22) have already arrived this gives me hope for 2 years out.

    In 2 years one would expect Bouchard, Yamamoto, Benson & maaaybe Mcleod to be part of the NHL club on Entry level deals. #CupBound

    And there are other prospects in the conversation as well, guys like Maksimov and Berglund and Perssson.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t know about Yamamoto’s draft season but last year he was a very streaky scorer where he would go through cold streaks of production and massive heaters. Was his draft season similar?

  97. Profit says:

    Hunter:

    Give me 94 points and 14 for N64

  98. nelson88 says:

    Hunter

    98 points and 22 goals for Yak

    Thanks

  99. jm363561 says:

    Not too many of those, so we’re really only worried about how good our peripheral players play within our stratgic framework.
    =======

    Good morning from Manila. Wife safely dropped off at church; bagel, cream cheese and venti cappuccino in front of me. Life is good ….. and the Oilers have a strategic framework. Who knew?

    However, nothing can shake my view that we are toast this year. Coulda, woulda, shoulda, bounce backs, breakouts, ifs, buts, maybes – I gave up on that years ago. The Chia three point master plan is, however, becoming clearer:

    1. One more lottery pick. (In process. See below). TICK
    Klef/Larsson
    Gravel/Benning
    Jarabek/Russel
    N.B. Nurse’s agent fell right into the trap. Now the Pouliot and Gryba buy outs, which we all thought were due to incompetence, make sense.

    2. Get goal tending. (System flooded).

    3. New head coach. (Auditions under way).

    2021 baby.

  100. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    stephen sheps: there’s a dude talking about machine learning and video-based deep learning networks and literally building a system that can do automated frame by frame analysis. nobody’s glazed over in this talk. this shit’s insanely cool.

    Edit: the potential applications are incredible. He’s hoping the tech could be used for measuring zone time, player tendencies, positioning for gf/ga situations, identify systems, set plays and individual and team based patterns (i.e. zone entry types and the effectiveness therein)

    – I’ve talked about this before. One day, they will have enough computer power to be able to analyze moment by moment th optimal move for every player on the ice

    – When i was a lot younger I helped develop this programme for Backgammon called jellyfish

    – And chess has the same thing.

    – At every move, you can run a regression and monte-carlo, and find the optimal move for every situation based on the dice rolled, and the position you are in. You then compare that with the move that was actually made and can solve for whether it was optimal, or increased the vol (which is good if you are behind), or what percent change your choice was vs optimal

    – In both Backgammon, and chess: no human can beat the best programmes at anywhere close to 50% of the time: and in backgammon there is a lot more luck than chess. This luck is also quantified, based on the rolling of the dice vs. normal distrubution

    – It’s fascinating stuff: and the human element of “pressing” is real, just as it is in hockey

    – Now hockey is thousands of time more complicated, and every few seconds there is a different solution, but one day, a AI system will be able to tell you what every player did at every moment on the ice, and what the consequence was of that choice.

    – Might take 10 years for processing power and AI programming to get there but it will happen

  101. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan,

    Once you’re logged in, just stay logged in and keep that tab open. Works for me, at least until the cache gets cleared.

  102. Gerta Rauss says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan,

    Yeah, that’s it unfortunately

    Try saving the login page as a bookmark, and then make that your default page in the morning-it’ll save a couple of steps. And stay logged in if you can.

  103. flea says:

    McNuge93,

    I also remember reading somewhere (I think Gregor or someone at ON) that his contract will slide another year if he plays exclusively in the AHL.

  104. Lowetide says:

    At the beginning of July, I was informed by GoDaddy that I needed to change from http to HTTPS and I did around that time. In doing so, and I was not aware of the impact, it changed the address of this blog. That meant signing in every day. I can tell you that on some of the computers I use this is no longer an issue but on others it remains a problem. I don’t have a fix, but do apologize for the inconvenience.

  105. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – By the way, by far the biggest thing that hockey does not understand is recognizing that given the situation a team is in they have to change their tactics

    – Hockey is very stubborn about following the system. Whether it is a tie game or you are up two, there are certain conventions that must be followed or you sit on the bench.

    – But in fact, when a team is up a goal, they they will play more defensive

    – And the team that is behind, they are expected to follow the same system

    – But in reality, when a team is down, they should be playing so that they can create more opportunities to score, even if it means they might give up more chances

    – This situational awareness, and knowing what it means to be up 1 or down 1 is not even contemplated in hockey theory. Game theory would change hockey a lot.

    – One day this will happen: and teams that have the lead will understand that they shouldn’t be in prevent D, and teams that are behind, will deviate from their “system” to create more chances

  106. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide,

    Are you committed to GoDaddy or would you consider moving to another host..?

    My background is telecomm/network services so I know very little about web hosting/HTTPS etc, but maybe with the traffic/success of the site another hosting service may be something to consider..?

    just a thought

  107. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Lowetide:
    At the beginning of July, I was informed by GoDaddy that I needed to change from http to HTTPS and I did around that time. In doing so, and I was not aware of the impact, it changed the address of this blog. That meant signing in every day. I can tell you that on some of the computers I use this is no longer an issue but on others it remains a problem. I don’t have a fix, but do apologize for the inconvenience.

    May I assume that my post was deleted because I used the phrase “fucked up”? Would FUBAR be acceptable?

  108. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: For a guy drafted 22nd overall, it shouldn’t be expected that he is ready for the NHL until at least his draft plus 3 year.I expected more out of him in the rookie games as well but need to take a step back and realize that, aside from Bouchard, the guys that stood out were older – Benson (draft plus 3), Marody (draft plus 4), Jones (draft plus 4).

    Dube, who stood out for Calgary is also draft plus 3.

    I need to remind myself that Yamamoto is not a can’t-miss NHLer. I believe he’ll turn in to an every day NHLer in the top 6 but its not a certainty.

    Benson and Dube are the same age as Yamamoto. We have to quit using this draft plus nonsense. We should be just calling them 99 borns or whatever they are. I bet they all have the same number of years in major junior.

  109. Lowetide says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Lowetide,

    Are you committed to GoDaddy or would you consider moving to another host..?

    My background is telecomm/network services so I know very little about web hosting/HTTPS etc, but maybe with the traffic/success of the site another hosting service may be something to consider..?

    just a thought

    Isn’t a GoDaddy thing, if I didn’t comply there were all kinds of restrictions to the blog coming. GoDaddy has actually been very good in the last year or so.

  110. Lowetide says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: May I assume that my post was deleted because I used the phrase “fucked up”? Would FUBAR be acceptable?

    No, I deleted it because the issue has been the cause of many emails, frustration et cetera and I didn’t want to derail the thread. I understand people being upset, but as far as I can tell, the best solution is signing in. I don’t want people confused about the solution.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Benson and Dube are the same age as Yamamoto. We have to quit using this draft plus nonsense. We should be just calling them 99 borns or whatever they are. I bet they all have the same number of years in major junior.

    That’s a fair point, thank you (although Benson is 6 months older than Yamamoto, not immaterial at that age).

    With that said, I still think draft year matters – it goes to years within the organization – years where the organization is proving knowledge and insight, training programs, guidance on what to work on, etc. Years where they are around and, for short periods, practicing and scrimmaging with the pros. Years to get comfortable with how camp works and how its run, etc.

  112. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: You’ve said this before but its not true – his best offensive season was primarily as a right winger with Brock Nelson and Frans Nielson as his primary centers.

    One of the first things Doug Weight did when he became head coach was put Strome at centre. He said he was a better fit, and much more comfortable as a centre.

  113. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: For a guy drafted 22nd overall, it shouldn’t be expected that he is ready for the NHL until at least his draft plus 3 year.I expected more out of him in the rookie games as well but need to take a step back and realize that, aside from Bouchard, the guys that stood out were older – Benson (draft plus 3), Marody (draft plus 4), Jones (draft plus 4).

    Dube, who stood out for Calgary is also draft plus 3.

    I need to remind myself that Yamamoto is not a can’t-miss NHLer. I believe he’ll turn in to an every day NHLer in the top 6 but its not a certainty.

    Seems like there’s been a change of heart, a month ago you were putting Yammo in in place of Rattie. It’s pretty obvious the kid needs time to learn how to play against men, not so sure Benson hasn’t already passed him on the depth chart.

  114. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide,

    thanks

    A recurring concern I’m reading is having to scroll down in order to login-would it be possible to add a login button in the top banner area-this may relieve some of the frustration

    no reply is necessary, just a suggestion

  115. godot10 says:

    Material Elvis: I get it.He is not a naturally gifted scorer and likely won’t put up big points in the NHL (60+).But I envision him being a very good forechecking winger, who can pk and play up the line up.If everything falls right for him, he has top 6 potential (he can keep up with McDavid)He is standing out at this stage, which is definitely intriguing, and likely better than most of his 2nd round peers in their respective camps.One more year of junior and a year in the AHL, and this guy might be ready.

    I’m fine with the pick. Steve Kelly went in the top 10 overall. McLeod went in the 2nd round.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: One of the first things Doug Weight did when he became head coach was put Strome at centre. He said he was a better fit, and much more comfortable as a centre.

    That’s nice that Doug Weight did that but it still doesn’t change the fact that your statement about him having his most success as a center is incorrect. His highest offensive season was spent primarily as a right winger – that’s simply a fact.

  117. Oilman99 says:

    jp: Why do people keep saying this? It’s not true.

    He had 1 very poor year on Tavares’s wing and 2 good to very good years primarily with Lee and Neilsen (sp). He was decidedly mediocre as a C on Long Island too.

    Edit: Apologies, it was 1 bad year with Tavares, 1 good year with Lee/Nelson.

    He had one decent year out of four in NYI, which appears to have been an anomaly, a good reason why he was traded.

  118. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: That’s a fair point, thank you (although Benson is 6 months older than Yamamoto, not immaterial at that age).

    With that said, I still think draft year matters – it goes to years within the organization – years where the organization is proving knowledge and insight, training programs, guidance on what to work on, etc. Years where they are around and, for short periods, practicing and scrimmaging with the pros.Years to get comfortable with how camp works and how its run, etc.

    I suppose an extra year in the organization will make them more comfortable.
    But we need to remember that Yamamoto has played against the Bensons and Dubes every year since he started playing the game. He has the exact same amount of experience and skill development that these players do.
    The only difference between a September and a March birthday is the year you get drafted. Otherwise their hockey experiences are the same.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Seems like there’sbeen a change of heart, a month ago you were putting Yammo in in place of Rattie. It’s pretty obvious the kid needs time to learn how to play against men, not so sure Benson hasn’t already passed him on the depth chart.

    Its not a change of heart – I’ve always felt like there is a greater chance than not that he will need AHL time – at the same time I’m not convinced he couldn’t produce very similar offensive numbers to Ty Rattie as 1RW. I’m not sure Ty Rattie is an NHL player when not playing with McDavid.

  120. v4ance says:

    Crazy Pedestrian,

    I don’t see a simulation or model that will ever fully predict hockey for the simple reason that we use a cylindrical puck. Baseball and football once launched, for the most part, will behave in easily predictable movements with tips or deflections being rare situations. Pucks can flutter or bobble or go straight as an arrow but tips and deflections are common occurrances which introduce a factor of randomness in every play.

    Players can do the right thing and go to the correct area… and lose a prime scoring chance to a puck that hits a rut, catches a stray stick or even just was hit edge on or floats thru the air fluttering to who knows where. A double play ball, a well executed screen pass or a good run blitz have high degrees of success if executed properly. You can hit a puck 10 times and have it react oddly 3 times, 1 time or not at all.

    Goalies can get hot and even though you might outshoot a team 50 -20 and outchance them 30-5, you might still find yourself on the losing end of a 1-0 score. How do you model when a goalie is just “ON” that day?

    Hockey will always have some randomness that can’t be predicted beforehand. So that is why we look at lots of bulk data and see who is getting positive results by doing the right things more times than not. Sometimes players perform badly but still have some good counting stats. But that’s how we came up with PDO to measure that “miscalibration” of results to actual performance.

  121. slopitch says:

    I dont know why the masses dont consider 100 points reasonable for the Oilers. Can Reider = 2016-17 Maroon? Can Nurse 2018-19 = Sekera 2016-17? Can JP = 2016-17 Eberle? I cant see why not to any of these. If so, it all boils down to goaltending and special teams.

  122. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Lowetide,

    Are you committed to GoDaddy or would you consider moving to another host..?

    My background is telecomm/network services so I know very little about web hosting/HTTPS etc, but maybe with the traffic/success of the site another hosting service may be something to consider..?

    just a thought

    Earlier this year google chrome significantly upped their security policies. If you have ANY https (like a login) then absolutely all requests on the page must be secured or you get that insecure site message with it blocking the page. This was a pretty big deal across many sites and is beyond a providers services and is most likely a wordpress and WordPress plugin issue with how the caching is performed.

    Edit: It’s good to hear how well godaddy has been trying to help.

  123. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If Nuge has a season with Connor and gets 60 pts he shat the bed.

    Half of the best player ITW’s points doesn`t cut it.

    1 PPG for the primary winger is a must. 50 for the #2 winger is acceptable.

    Time for big boy pants, if this thing is going to go.

    It’s all in their heads, players and coaches. The talent is there, enough, now.

  124. jp says:

    godot10: The scouting reports on McLeod were all photos of Steve Kelly…i.e. McLeod dropped in the draft because he didn’t show enough offense…counting numbers…box cars.

    Lots of guys with similar numbers make an impact. Just browsing through drafts from 2013, looking for successful players with similar CHL offense (McLeod was 1.02 PPG)

    2013
    9th – Bo Horvat – 0.91 PPG
    30th – Ryan Hartman – 1.07 PPG

    2012
    13th – Radek Faksa – 1.08 PPG
    16th – Tom Wilson – 0.55 PPG

    2011
    7th – Mark Scheifele – 1.14 PPG
    26th – Phillip Danault – 1.05 PPG
    27th – Vladislav Namestnikov – 1.00 PPG
    30th – Rickard Rakell – 0.88 PPG
    37th – Boone Jenner – 1.05 PPG

    2010
    4th – Ryan Johansen – 0.97 PPG
    5th – Nino Niederreiter – 0.92 PPG

    2009
    33rd – Ryan O’Reilly – 0.97

    2008
    22nd – Jordan Eberle – 0.97

    2007
    11th – Brandon Sutter – 0.80

    Some really nice players here. This doesn’t mean McLeod will make it, but discounting him for scoring ONLY 1 PPG is a bit silly.

  125. rickithebear says:

    V4:

    Your view is the table scrap view.

    This blog discusses .1 to 4% variances like they actually mater.

    I discuss 40-500% variances.
    That are the factors that mater.

    Your table scrap view is what gives you your perspective.

    1. GA is what matters best chance at playoff success.
    2. It is driven by the 40-500% Boolean variables.
    3. Thier are critical structure decisions to get GF that have negative large % Boolean results on GF.
    That also have unintended large % negative affect on GA
    4. A cup core repeats itself based on players who best generate those +ve high % Boolean variables.
    5. Avoid hockey people unwilling to avoid the large % negative Boolean affects.
    6. Please ignore the binary linear table scrap analysis. Until you have addressed all large% Boolean affects.

    Hockey ain’t even close!

  126. rickithebear says:

    Did you see the return for Karlsson.

    Ottawa traded a -28 unit Diff rover. Rovers are huge % Negative Boolean affect gf & GA players.
    For
    1. Tierney 1.09 125 fwd 1 cup core piece

    2. De Malo a Top 50 HD dman 2 of 3 yrs, 2/2 in HD sys.
    1 of 3 needed HD d cup core piece

    3. J. Norris who looking like a potential top 125 fwd.

    4. Balcers who’s 20yr AHL season matches peers
    Schmaltz
    Ghodolibin
    Forsberg
    Trochek
    Reider
    Pearson
    M. Stone
    R. Strome
    Screams good top 125 fwd

    5. 1st rounder

    6. 2nd rounder

    7. 1st or 2nd rounder if signed
    Or
    1st rounder if on a EC roster in 18-19

    A real shot at 5-7 of 9/10 needed Cup Core base pieces.

    This is just a hugely one sided trade based on large % Boolean affect repeat conf/cup core.

    Best potential cup core based trade haul since Lindros trade?

    Dorion is a genius.

    I am still laughing how historic this is.

    Bloody Hell.

  127. Jethro Tull says:

    rickithebear,

    I do not think you are applying Boolean correctly.

  128. Material Elvis says:

    Jethro Tull:
    rickithebear,

    I do not think you are applying Boolean correctly.

    If Boolean means that Dylan DeMelo is a core defensive piece, then he’s definitely applying it incorrectly. #newbooleandrinkinggame

  129. jtblack says:

    jp,

    Remember. Mcleod was 3rd yr of junior. you are prob comparing to all of these players 2nd year. Huge difference

  130. rickithebear says:

    Jethro Tull:
    rickithebear,

    I do not think you are applying Boolean correctly.

    Any exclusion of multi variable break down fails Boolean aproach.
    As the most ardent binary linear human action analysts reject thier past theories for multi variable analysis.

    The simplistic mapping of multivariable SOE and break down of Boolean aproach data.
    Got me too were I am.

    VGK cup final appearance is the the critical test answered for all my theory.

    Period.

    You use all your theories to build a cup core roster.
    Maybe Seattle will copy yours.

  131. soup says:

    Lowetide,

    LT,

    For all that you do with this blog, you have nothing to apologize for.

  132. jp says:

    jtblack:
    jp,

    Remember.Mcleod was 3rd yr of junior. you are prob comparing to all of these players 2nd year. Huge difference

    You really think it’s a huge difference? I feel like folks are nitpicking on McLeod here.

    The Oilers drafted a consensus first rounder with size and speed and solid offensive numbers at 40 overall, yet some are down on the player/pick. He seems like good value to me at 40 overall, even taking into account age, 3rd year in the OHL and everything else. JMO.

  133. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear: Any exclusion of multi variable break down fails Boolean aproach.
    As the most ardent binary linear human action analysts reject thier past theories for multi variable analysis.

    The simplistic mapping of multivariable SOE and break down of Boolean aproach data.
    Got me too were I am.

    VGK cup final appearance is the the critical test answered for all my theory.

    Period.

    You use all your theories to build a cup core roster.
    Maybe Seattle will copy yours.

    That is without a doubt the biggest bag of bear bs I’ve ever seen.
    Team built around non Ricki D and the Ricki D they brought in they are trying to ditch.
    But yeah they got a copy of your analysis. Is that the one the dog ate.
    Such crap

  134. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear:
    Did you see the return for Karlsson.

    Ottawa traded a -28 unit Diff rover. Rovers are huge % Negative Boolean affect gf & GA players.
    For
    1. Tierney 1.09 125 fwd 1 cup core piece

    2. De Malo a Top 50 HD dman 2 of 3 yrs, 2/2 in HD sys.
    1 of 3 needed HD d cup core piece

    3. J. Norris who looking like a potential top 125 fwd.

    4. Balcers who’s 20yr AHL season matches peers
    Schmaltz
    Ghodolibin
    Forsberg
    Trochek
    Reider
    Pearson
    M. Stone
    R. Strome
    Screams good top 125 fwd

    5. 1st rounder

    6. 2nd rounder

    7. 1st or 2nd rounder if signed
    Or
    1st rounder if on a EC roster in 18-19

    A real shot at 5-7 of 9/10 needed Cup Core base pieces.

    This is just a hugely one sided trade based on large % Boolean affect repeatconf/cup core.

    Best potential cup core based trade haul since Lindros trade?

    Dorion is a genius.

    I am still laughing how historic this is.

    Bloody Hell.

    I’m still laughing at this analysis. Future Hall of famer for a whole bag of crap plus one good prospect. This is historic in how poor your analysis is.
    This is we won the Pronger trade after all level analysis.
    Your HD defensemen are crap. We have number evidence of how crappy they are. Your faves Emelin and Sbisa can’t find work
    Why?
    Because they slightly lower GA while severely caving the offense.
    Dorian is a genius?
    He got a shit package because of the stupid requirement to get him out of the conference for one year.
    This is without a doubt a crushing trade for the Sens and without their 1st puck they are entering a decade of darkness.
    Future cup winners. Get out of here

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca