As Time Goes By

The Edmonton Oilers are trumpeting their department of youth, seeding the future with “Evan Bouchard looks ready” and “Tyler Benson has impressed” in the last few days. One thing we can absolutely mark as a good arrow: There are several stories of this type. Aside from Bouchard and Benson, young Ryan McLeod has turned heads and Caleb Jones looks like he has taken a giant step forward. Early days? Sure. It’s also true there are more youngsters pushing than a year ago. We’re so early in training camp that none of this means a thing, but little arrows are big steps. You can’t fast forward to opening night and we are here. What are the important stories in this Oilers training camp? There are a few indications of what is to come.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic made some big additions last week, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman joining the Edmonton staff. Daniel, Jonathan Willis, Minnia Feng, Pat McLean and me will deliver prose all winter long and there will be tons via the national desk from Tyler Dellow, Corey Pronman and Dom Luszczysyn. Special offer is here, less than $4 a month! Also, don’t forget to join us later this month (September 24, The Rec Room south side) for a get together and general merriment. I’m thrilled to be part of this group, hope you join us.

  • New Lowetide: How do you replace a lost draft summer?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Even with more goaltending depth the Oilers are counting on return to form from Cam Talbot.
  • Lowetide: RE 18-19: Ryan Strome and the Oilers long journey to competent third and fourth lines
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers fail in 2018-19, it will probably be the same reason they failed in 2017-18.
  • Eric Duhatschek: Connor McDavid knows what ails the Oilers and how to improve it.
  • Lowetide: RE 18-19: Leon Draisaitl and the pursuit of a second outscoring line in ’18-19
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers improve in ’18-19, they’ll do it on the back of special teams
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Ethan Bear is providing inspiration for Indigenous youth through his hockey camp.
  • Jonathan Willis: The arrival of Alex Chiasson gives the Oilers a crowd up front
  • The Athletic Cross Canada Tour Will hit Edmonton!
  • Lowetide: RE 18-19 Can the McDavid line lead the 2018-19 Oilers to the playoffs?
  • Corey Pronman: The most intriguing prospect to watch at camp for every NHL team.
  • Jonathan Willis: Three different KHL stars, three different paths to NHL success.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Bringing something different to the Oilers beat.

OILERS PROSPECTS, CURRENT LEAGUE SCORING

  1. Patrik Siikanen, Blues (Jr. Sm-Liiga) 6, 3-4-7
  2. Anton Slepyshev, CSKA Moscow (KHL) 6, 1-1-2
  3. Nail Yakupov, St. Petersburg (KHL) 3, 1-1-2
  4. Filip Berglund, Skelleftea (SHL) 1, 1-1-2
  5. Bogdan Yakimov, Neftekhimik (KHL) 6, 0-0-0
  6. Markus Niemelainen, HPK (Sm-Liiga) 2, 0-0-0

I included Nail Yakupov here, might include scoring of prospects every Sunday through the season. It’s something I like to track during the season, gives me a feel for what’s going on and individual player spikes. Swedish Poster had some kind words about Filip Berglund yesterday in the comments section, the young Swedish blue is off to a nice start. A brief Joel Persson interview (requiring google translate) offers a few gems, as in how many teams pursued him.

CHIARELLI’S COMMENTS

  • Chiarelli on vacancies on the blue line and trusting the farm: Well yes and you have to when you’re building this thing and you know I’ve said the last couple of days about not really excluding anyone but the three young guys, and I put Bouchard in that group. But Jones and Bear, their physical conditioning testing was leaps and bounds over what it has been historically, so they’ve really put in the work, and we’ll see where it takes them. But those are two guys that are gonna be pushing. Three guys in Bouch, I mean Bouch is Bouch.

It seems impossible. If the team gets their RFA signed, the starting depth chart (Edmonton and Bakersfield) on blue should be Klefbom—Larsson, Nurse—Benning, Russell—Jerabek, then someone like Gravel as 7D and Evan Bouchard making the team as No. 8 defender.  Condors pairings might be Lowe—Bear, Jones—Lagesson, followed by the rest. If Jones and Bear are in the conversation, guys like Jerabek and Gravel will have failed miserably.

  • Chiarelli on the Nurse contract situation: There’s no real update, yeah I know he traveled home the other night, but I don’t have an update for you. We obviously couldn’t come into agreement but we’ll hope we can get him in camp at some point here shortly. Don’t want to comment on specifics but I mean we’ve had a lot of negotiations so we’ll see where it goes here shortly, but I mean there’s a gap, I can tell you there’s a gap.

There’s no update and they aren’t in contact but that could change at any time. Edmonton plays two games early this week, if we see wobbly blue suspect the phone will ring. I remain surprised the Oilers are proceeding in this manner with a player we all thought was part of the inner circle McDavid cluster. Have to adjust the thinking there.

  • Chiarelli on if he has a backup plan: Yes I do, we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.

It’s unclear to me if this backup plan arrives only if Nurse is lost for the start of the season, or if this is a plan in place to address defense if things don’t come together full stop. Either way, PC has dropped hints all over hell’s half acre on this, so I expect it is indeed Kassian or Khaira plus a second-round pick for Justin Faulk or other. Not sure it’s a wise move.

  • Chiarelli on Jesse Puljujarvi: He’s a big raw kid, he’s rounding out his game a little bit, he’s getting more comfortable in this environment. Just talking to him before the camp started he’s in a good spot, I mean you can’t judge it by one game but he’s making plays out there. He looks more confident. Shorter stick, you’re right, he’s shooting the puck better. So you just got to be patient with him and he’s going to be a very good contributor in this league in due time.

I’ve made the point before about Chiarelli clearing the decks a little for JP this season, I remain convinced the general manager is officially stubborn on this player (in a good way). Puljujarvi is 20, has all kinds of tools, over 90 games in the NHL and something less than a murderer’s row in terms of competition on right wing. There’s a sweet spot somewhere in this batting order for him, I think he finds it this season. A guess would be Rieder-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi by Christmas.

Bruce McCurdy was at yesterday’s scrimmage and offered his usual astute observations. I especially enjoyed his prose on the new giant in goal. Excellent Sunday reading.

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237 Responses to "As Time Goes By"

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  1. Ribs says:

    Montoya talks about his concussion issues from last year…

    https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1041425975249068033

    Sounds like he was playing with symptoms for the games he played last season. Man. And they made sure to give him the seven starts that sent away the extra draft pick. Nutty stuff.

  2. VOR says:

    Last night rickithebear posted the following:

    “Any exclusion of multi variable break down fails Boolean aproach.
As the most ardent binary linear human action analysts reject thier past theories for multi variable analysis.
    The simplistic mapping of multivariable SOE and break down of Boolean aproach data.
Got me too were I am.
    VGK cup final appearance is the the critical test answered for all my theory.
    Period.
    You use all your theories to build a cup core roster.
Maybe Seattle will copy yours.”

    I have been trying to understand this ever since. Some of you may wonder why I have bothered? I had an intuition that there might be something of value in this statement.

    ◦ Any exclusion of multi variable break down fails Boolean aproach.

    I think this would make some sense if we said that any analysis of failure that doesn’t look at multiple possible causes for that failure is likely to be itself a failure.

    The Boolean part confuses me. Boolean algebra has 17 key theorems. 8 of these are used with single variables. 9 are used with multiple variables.

    Imagine a piece of blank paper. In theory any series of decisions or events can be turned into a series of true or false statements and “gated”, that is expressed as a specific statement in formal logic using one of the 17 theorems.

    I suspect Ricki is simply saying that by not admitting the possibility of multiple variables being involved in any decision or event as an a priori choice you make using Boolean algebra or formal logic to analyze that decision or event a pointless exercise. That is his way of saying the heuristic trick (the rule of thumb) where we search for one single thing to explain any event or decision renders all subsequent analysis of that event or decision null and void.

    ◦ As the most ardent binary linear human action analysts reject thier past theories for multi variable analysis.

    This is easier to understand. Think how often you’ve heard the expression “human error.” A plane crashes it is always pilot error, etc. And that used to be the approach specialists in analyzing accidents and bad decisions used – look for one primary cause. But in recent years there has been a huge change in how such analysis is conducted. Now we look for multiple causes and try to figure out the relationship amongst these factors. For example, Kim Vicente’s brilliant analysis of Chernobyl in his master work, The Human Factor.

    ◦ The simplistic mapping of multivariable SOE and break down of Boolean aproach data.
Got me too were I am.

    Now Ricki introduces a new concept and a very intriguing one, the Standard Operating Environment (SOE). As far as I know nobody has ever attempted an analysis of the Standard Operating Environment in which an NHL player operates. Ricki is saying he has attempted to create a simplistic map of this environment and then reduced that map to simple True False statements. This lead him to his current understanding of hockey.

    Ricki then goes on to say the performance of the Vegas Golden Knights proves his SOE map and the Boolean tools derived from that map work for building a Stanley Cup finalists. contender.

    After hours of work I think I can prove Ricki’s first statement is true using formal logic. You can’t just exclude the possibility of multiple causes of a decision or an event from analysis of that decision or event and know your analysis of that decision or event is accurate.

    His second statement is factual. The work of Vicente, John Lee, and many other founders of human factor analysis has changed to focus on multiple factor analysis.

    It is certainly possible to map any recurring or continuous environment. I would never have thought to try it with hockey but it is theoretically possible. I have no way of knowing if Ricki has created such a map or if he has done a good job of it. I can see, as I assume most of you can why a successful mapping of hockey’s SOE might be profoundly important and highly useful.

    There is a long history of SOEs being turned into Boolean statements. That is Standard Operating Environments are frequently modelled (turned into algorithms or gated and programmed and recreated in virtual reality). So if Ricki had a functional map turning it into a useful mathematical tool using Boolean algebra would be possible.

    The part I struggle with is the idea that Ricki’s theories/ideas are proven by the Vegas Golden Knights performance. Neither we or Ricki have anyway of knowing if this is true or not. Since nobody knows how George MacPhee built that roster we can’t know if any of Ricki’s ideas were in play.

    If Ricki would publish the map and his Boolean statements we could test the lesser statement “Do Ricki’s ideas produce the core of the Vegas roster?” That alone, even though it might be a total coincidence would still be a startling accomplishment.

    With out access to the model we are still left with a two provocative but accurate statements and one tantalizing and incredibly original idea.

  3. CallighenMan says:

    Lowetide,

    Thank You!!! Awesome LT as usual….

  4. BONE207 says:

    Pescador,

    You are on a Rocky binge today. Either that or you’re prepping yourself for a long hard winter.

  5. Ribs says:

    VOR: Now Ricki introduces a new concept and a very intriguing one, the Standard Operating Environment (SOE). As far as I know nobody has ever attempted an analysis of the Standard Operating Environment in which an NHL player operates. Ricki is saying he has attempted to create a simplistic map of this environment and then reduced that map to simple True False statements. This lead him to his current understanding of hockey.

    I wonder if video game companies apply this sort of stuff?

    It’s hard to say how useful this could be. You flip enough subjective switches and you are bound to muddy your results.

    Hopefully some day Ricki can find a way to publish his stuff (I imagine this would be a very difficult task for him) so that we can see what kind of switches he’s flipping!

  6. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar: I do feel like Maskimov should have been given more of an opportunity in the rookie games – maybe some time with the higher end talent and definitely more time on both special teams. I know Ryan McLeod is new and shiny but he got more of an opportunity, in my opinion.

    With that said, neither of them had great camps and didn’t earn an exhibition game – time to get their junior seasons started.

    Meh,
    I keep expectations low for club and player.
    Maksimov didn’t soar like an eagle. shame.
    Hopefully this was a big wake up call for him and his training. I bet the Oilers said as much.
    on the bright side, there is time & plenty of it.
    I thought you were supposed to be the silver lining guy?

  7. Pescador says:

    BONE207:
    Pescador,

    You are on a Rocky binge today. Either that or you’re prepping yourself for a long hard winter.

    Glad you clicked on the links, what can I say great movies just keep on giving.
    Edit: I have been chopping wood & carrying water

  8. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    VOR,

    Mind blown.

    So much. To research.

    Thank. You. Both.

  9. Bank Shot says:

    godot10: It may have ruined Pieterangelo’s offensive upside, wasting two prime development years playing 60% of a season.It may have stunted the development of soft skills, like leadership skills, only playing half a season in junior.

    We actually don’t know if PIeterangelo could have been at Doughty’s level if he had not played so little in two critical seasons.

    Probably not.

    t’s not like it’s any different than the college guys that only play 35 games per year.

    I think practice time is probably more important for developing good players. I’m sure Pietrangelo got all of that he could handle.

  10. Material Elvis says:

    VOR,

    You are a very fascinating character VOR. Your approach to presenting these new concepts is atypical, but interesting, nonetheless.

  11. Bruce McCurdy says:

    ArmchairGM: The thing about Faulk is that he’s a PP guy, his 5v5 play has been poor to abysmal. Here are his career goal totals at 5v5:

    2
    3
    3
    6
    4
    12
    5

    Hardly world-beating for a guy getting 1100 – 1500 minutes per season.

    Damn, i keep forgetting that powerplay goals are worth less than even strength tallies.

  12. Ribs says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    This reminds me of the argument I always get into with my wife. “Assists are worth as much as goals!” (usually my statement when I haven’t scored any goals in a game that night). “Without the assist, there is no goal!” I say, if she pushes the issue…. hehehe. Was it Walter Gretzky that came up with that? Love it.

  13. GMB3 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Damn, i keep forgetting that powerplay goals are worth less than even strength tallies.

    Never forget that Chris Pronger never scored 15 goals once in his career either. It’s a huge accomplishment that plenty of good defenceman never reach

  14. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    When its stated the Puljujarvi is 20, I think it should be noted that he is 20 for the entire season and doesn’t turn 21 until after the regular season.He was 19 the last time he played a league game, that’s how young this kid is.

    He’s 2 months younger than Tyler Benson.

    And JP is only 4 3/4 months (145 days) older than Yamamoto.

  15. Jaxon says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Morrissey signs with WPG 3.15 x 2

    Nurse’s market is set.

    Morrissey has scored more over the last 2 years.

    Morrissey plays top 4.

    Nurse outscored Morrisey, Theodore and Montour at 5v5 this season. Nurse played #1 minutes. Nurse brings more speed and toughness. Nurse was #6 in TOI.
    5v5 Ranks among NHL D:
    TOI #6
    Pts #20
    Goals #45
    Assists #14
    Rush attempts #3
    Rebounds created #7!!
    Hits #24
    Blocked shots #26
    Takeaways #38

  16. London Jon says:

    Jaxon,

    Those rankings makes him look a lot better than I think he is!

    A few caveats to that:

    – he gets so much 5v5 because he’s not v good on the PP or the PK

    – guessing those are ‘absolute’ rankings rather than /TOI? Be interesting to see what they are per 60

    – be interesting also to add in WoodMoneys

    I think if you adjust for points two and three, then throw in comparables, and then we know his value. I think some dudes already got a site for that and estimated contracts. What did nurse come out at?

  17. London Jon says:

    Also, I can’t tell you how excited I am for the game in Gothenburg, which I’m going to.

    CAN NOT WAIT 😁😁😁😁😁

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    Game Day!

    With the flames in China so icing a very young lineup tonight, I expect the Oilers will do the same. Oh well!

  19. ArmchairGM says:

    John Chambers:
    Ryan,

    I think Faulk’s problem is that he has been miscast as the team’s top Defenseman, along with being captain, core franchise player, etc.

    We had the same issue with Jultz, who like Faulk is a #4 miscast as a 23 minute-a-night horse.

    Give Faulk second-pair 5×5 minutes and set him up to rip on the pp and the crowd will hail him the second coming of Jaro Spacek!

    In 16-17, Faulk played the 4th most minutes on his team against elite competition (5v5). How much lower does he have to go??

  20. ArmchairGM says:

    VOR,

    Well done, VOR! I was solidly in the some-of-you-may-wonder-why-I-have-bothered camp, but certainly appreciate the explanation and effort you put into this.

  21. ArmchairGM says:

    Pescador: Footage of Nurse’s plane landing
    https://youtu.be/yL3lJfpenAc?t=35s

    haha. Except it’s still beach weather in Toronto, snow and ice are months away.

  22. ArmchairGM says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Damn, i keep forgetting that powerplay goals are worth less than even strength tallies.

    Did I say that? I have lots of respect for you and your opinion Bruce, but that was a childish response.

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: Meh,
    I keep expectations low for club and player.
    Maksimov didn’t soar like an eagle. shame.
    Hopefully this was a big wake up call for him and his training. I bet the Oilers said as much.
    on the bright side, there is time & plenty of it.
    I thought you were supposed to be the silver lining guy?

    I prefer voice of reason guy………

    opinions may vary.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon: Nurse outscored Morrisey, Theodore and Montour at 5v5 this season. Nurse played #1 minutes. Nurse brings more speed and toughness. Nurse was #6 in TOI.

    Yes, Nurse outscored those 3 at even strength but the other way to look at it could be that he outscored them because of more minutes. Both Theodore and Morrissey scored at higher P/60 and P1/60 at 5 on 5 than Nurse.

    Just playing Devils’ advocate here.

  25. flyfish1168 says:

    Pescador: Have you ever listened to conversations in front/behind you at a live game? Try it sometime if you would like to be disappointed.
    Most fans don’t care about the difference between RFA UFA contracts
    Nurse ask is $4M
    Russell makes $4M
    Pretty sure expectations will be covered.
    My guess is they settle on $3.75 AAV.
    Any chance you have his agents direct email? AFAF

    during the game and setting behind a computer have a different atmosphere. you bet fans think differently. Contact , money and status becomes a bigger issue then

  26. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, Nurse outscored those 3 at even strength but the other way to look at it could be that he outscored them because of more minutes.Both Theodore and Morrissey scored at higher P/60 and P1/60 at 5 on 5 than Nurse.

    Just playing Devils’ advocate here.

    I was wondering if someone would call me on that. But the flip side again is that Nurse had to score against the toughest opposition while also defending against the toughest opposition. And the counterargument to that is that Nurse had the best teammates. The other argument is that he stayed healthy enough and was dependable enough to get those extra minutes. I’d argue for the sake of establish contact value overall 5v5 production for the year is more important than per minute stats. For scouting I would argue that per minute stats are more important to find underutilized value. Also if you want to play a player as your #1D and he’s a player you expect to improve for the next 4 years as a major part of your team’s core maybe you shouldn’t expect to be able to pay him like your #5D, which is what anything less than $4M is.

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sure, all fair points and I won’t even try to argue them except for the last point.

    We all know that one can’t compare RFA contracts (Nurse) to UFA contracts (Russell and Sekera) in particular RFA contracts where the player has no arbitration rights.

    Further, all four of those $4M contracts come with term (4 years for Russell and 5 or 6 for the other 3). Nurse is asking for the $4M on a bridge (from accounts).

    Yes, from a macro level, Nurse says “I’m just as good/valuable as Klef and Larsson and better/more valuable than Russell so pay me as such”, however, in reality, in the cap world with different leverage points, that’s not how comparables work. The comparables are to the likes of Montrour, Morrissey, Theodore, etc.

    Given we both can make points on who is better as between Nurse and the others in the group, it seems reasonable that his contract looks very similar to the others in that group and I’m confident it will be signed as such this week.

  28. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Sure, all fair points and I won’t even try to argue them except for the last point.

    We all know that one can’t compare RFA contracts (Nurse) to UFA contracts (Russell and Sekera) in particular RFA contracts where the player has no arbitration rights.

    Further, all four of those $4M contracts come with term (4 years for Russell and 5 or 6 for the other 3).Nurse is asking for the $4M on a bridge (from accounts).

    Yes, from a macro level, Nurse says “I’m just as good/valuable as Klef and Larsson and better/more valuable than Russell so pay me as such”, however, in reality, in the cap world with different leverage points, that’s not how comparables work.The comparables are to the likes of Montrour, Morrissey, Theodore, etc.

    Given we both can make points on who is better as between Nurse and the others in the group, it seems reasonable that his contract looks very similar to the others in that group and I’m confident it will be signed as such this week.

    Sounds like the Oilers are offering comparable RFA dollars,
    Nurse camp is asking for comparable UFA dollars,
    Yet another way the Russell contract is biting everyone in the ass.
    I don’t share your optimism on this.
    My prediction, the contract will not be signed this week or next,

  29. Pescador says:

    ArmchairGM: haha. Except it’s still beach weather in Toronto, snow and ice are months away.

    maybe Nurse went to Russia to train with Stalone,
    I would endorse this

  30. N64 says:

    Ribs: Hopefully some day Ricki can find a way to publish his stuff (I imagine this would be a very difficult task for him)

    ~ Just a trip to the bank vault to pick up those postmarked envelopes ~

  31. N64 says:

    VOR: And that used to be the approach specialists in analyzing accidents and bad decisions used – look for one primary cause

    That might be how it comes across in news reports and movies. But I’ve read a small number of half century old FAA reports and they looked to be about connecting many causes in the chain of events and recommending incremental improvements to the “standard operating environment”. Checklists are very binary.

  32. Bruce McCurdy says:

    ArmchairGM: Did I say that? I have lots of respect for you and your opinion Bruce, but that was a childish response.

    A point I’ve made before & no doubt will again, that goals are goals & are helpful in any situation. There is a heavier emphasis on 5v5 these days, but fact is that Oilers powerplay was a black hole last year with producion from the point being especially lame, so the idea of an accomplished goal scorer in that situation has plenty of appeal.

    That said Faulk’s performance at evens is certainly relevant; i myself have made the point on at least 2 occasions in this forum that he had just 12 even strength points last season which is way below par for a would-be offensive blueliner. Was it a bad year or is he trending in a bad direction?

  33. godot10 says:

    Jaxon: I was wondering if someone would call me on that. But the flip side again is that Nurse had to score against the toughest opposition while also defending against the toughest opposition. And the counterargument to that is that Nurse had the best teammates. The other argument is that he stayed healthy enough and was dependable enough to get those extra minutes. I’d argue for the sake of establish contact value overall 5v5 production for the year is more important than per minute stats. For scouting I would argue that per minute stats are more important to find underutilized value. Also if you want to play a player as your #1D and he’s a player you expect to improve for the next 4 years as a major part of your team’s core maybe you shouldn’t expect to be able to pay him like your #5D, which is what anything less than $4M is.

    Nurse had better teammates than Morrissey. Really. Winnipeg’s forwards are pretty good. Schieffle, Wheeler, Laine, Stastney, Ehlers, Connor. Nurse has McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins. What Nurse has in quality is more than made up by quantity and quality for Morrisey.

  34. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Sure, all fair points and I won’t even try to argue them except for the last point.

    We all know that one can’t compare RFA contracts (Nurse) to UFA contracts (Russell and Sekera) in particular RFA contracts where the player has no arbitration rights.

    Further, all four of those $4M contracts come with term (4 years for Russell and 5 or 6 for the other 3).Nurse is asking for the $4M on a bridge (from accounts).

    Yes, from a macro level, Nurse says “I’m just as good/valuable as Klef and Larsson and better/more valuable than Russell so pay me as such”, however, in reality, in the cap world with different leverage points, that’s not how comparables work.The comparables are to the likes of Montrour, Morrissey, Theodore, etc.

    Given we both can make points on who is better as between Nurse and the others in the group, it seems reasonable that his contract looks very similar to the others in that group and I’m confident it will be signed as such this week.

    Nurse and his agent can just ignore the difference between RFA and UFA until November 30, and compare his ask to Russell’s conitract until then. (Note: My line in the sand is that I think 2 years, $3.5 AAV is fair). That is Nurse’s leverage. Can Chiarelli and McLellan wait that long?

    Nurse really doesn’t become an RFA without arbitration rights until November 30th.

    Nurse only loses a couple of hundred thousand. Chiarelli and McLellan face losing their jobs, and never finding another NHL job, and having the remainder of their current contracts as their final NHL paydays.

  35. rickithebear says:

    VOR:
    Last night rickithebear posted the following:

    “Any exclusion of multi variable break down fails Boolean aproach.
As the most ardent binary linear human action analysts reject thier past theories for multi variable analysis.
    The simplistic mapping of multivariable SOE and break down of Boolean aproach data.
Got me too were I am.
    VGK cup final appearance is the the critical test answered for all my theory.
    Period.
    You use all your theories to build a cup core roster.
Maybe Seattle will copy yours.”

    I have been trying to understand this ever since. Some of you may wonder why I have bothered? I had an intuition that there might be something of value in this statement.

    ◦Any exclusion of multi variable break down fails Boolean aproach.

    I think this would make some sense if we said that any analysis of failure that doesn’t look at multiple possible causes for that failure is likely to be itself a failure.

    The Boolean part confuses me. Boolean algebra has 17 key theorems. 8 of these are used with single variables. 9 are used with multiple variables.

    Imagine a piece of blank paper. In theory any series of decisions or events can be turned into a series of true or false statements and “gated”, that is expressed as a specific statement in formal logic using one of the 17 theorems.

    I suspect Ricki is simply saying that by not admitting the possibility of multiple variables being involved in any decision or event as an a priori choice you make using Boolean algebra or formal logic to analyze that decision or event a pointless exercise. That is his way of saying the heuristic trick (the rule of thumb) where we search for one single thing to explain any event or decision renders all subsequent analysis of that event or decision null and void.

    ◦As the most ardent binary linear human action analysts reject thier past theories for multi variable analysis.

    This is easier to understand. Think how often you’ve heard the expression “human error.” A plane crashes it is always pilot error, etc. And that used to be the approach specialists in analyzing accidents and bad decisions used – look for one primary cause. But in recent years there has been a huge change in how such analysis is conducted. Now we look for multiple causes and try to figure out the relationship amongst these factors. For example, Kim Vicente’s brilliant analysis of Chernobyl in his master work, The Human Factor.

    ◦The simplistic mapping of multivariable SOE and break down of Boolean aproach data.
Got me too were I am.

    Now Ricki introduces a new concept and a very intriguing one, the Standard Operating Environment (SOE). As far as I know nobody has ever attempted an analysis of the Standard Operating Environment in which an NHL player operates. Ricki is saying he has attempted to create a simplistic map of this environment and then reduced that map to simple True False statements. This lead him to his current understanding of hockey.

    Ricki then goes on to say the performance of the Vegas Golden Knights proves his SOE map and the Boolean tools derived from that map work for building a Stanley Cup finalists. contender.

    After hours of work I think I can prove Ricki’s first statement is true using formal logic. You can’t just exclude the possibility of multiple causes of a decision or an event from analysis of that decision or event and know your analysis of that decision or event is accurate.

    His second statement is factual. The work of Vicente, John Lee, and many other founders of human factor analysis has changed to focus on multiple factor analysis.

    It is certainly possible to map any recurring or continuous environment. I would never have thought to try it with hockey but it is theoretically possible. I have no way of knowing if Ricki has created such a map or if he has done a good job of it. I can see, as I assume most of you can why a successful mapping of hockey’s SOE might be profoundly important and highly useful.

    There is a long history of SOEs being turned into Boolean statements. That is Standard Operating Environments are frequently modelled (turned into algorithms or gated and programmed and recreated in virtual reality). So if Ricki had a functional map turning it into a useful mathematical tool using Boolean algebra would be possible.

    The part I struggle with is the idea that Ricki’s theories/ideas are proven by the Vegas Golden Knights performance. Neither we or Ricki have anyway of knowing if this is true or not. Since nobody knows how George MacPhee built that roster we can’t know if any of Ricki’s ideas were in play.

    If Ricki would publish the map and his Boolean statements we could test the lesser statement “Do Ricki’s ideas produce the core of the Vegas roster?” That alone, even though it might be a total coincidence would still be a startling accomplishment.

    With out access to the model we are still left with a two provocative but accurate statements and one tantalizing and incredibly original idea.

    VOR:

    You have taken the proper understanding of my aproach.
    Academic world does not look at the whole.

    Of your explanation of what I have done.
    The results are never true False.
    Heck some can generate 10+ options.
    With options route back to earlier points on the map.

    It is an approach that got men to the moon.
    Created a Mag Lev train.
    Physical reality advancement of Science.

    The formulaic science of the mechanics of man must not restrict variables.

    My lay approach Boolean Philosophic approach.
    Found the answers thru SOE.
    And
    Common sense success and repeatability.

    Over analysis of the game to start is a flaw.
    You ask the simple repeatable questions.

    Do you want identify the 500% affect
    Or the
    1% affect.

    30 years ago at age 14 when I looked at Academics and compared there triarchial brains to those who got us to the moon.
    All I could think is they could not wipe thier own ass outdoors.
    These were men with grade 10-11 educations who had not been subverted by academia.

    Law is based on previous precedent.
    Exactly like Uni Academia.

    If we took every Supreme Court decision and asked if the laws held true to protecting the just.
    We would have to we write most of those decisions.

    That is wahat we need to do with most of binary analysis.
    Cause none of it can be just true False ever.

    Now I have found the answers to current high ratio affects game.
    I have found the most critical ratios and repeatable ( best % team structure/approach) choices.

    I even stated years ago sport IQ,s technology can nay be further able to identify the mechanical physics of my cup core robots. To see those same physical and mental attributes in current non robots who can be trained to be superior cup core robots.

    The Russians were 2 decades ahead of us when I trained.
    I was never an elite athlete.
    But I made myself an Elite robot In the 2 sports I was exceptional at
    2 decades before we are finally having the correct discussions.

    VOR you have Knowledge and tools to advance what I have developed.
    To better find robots at a cheaper cap cost.

    But True/False.
    Never!

    Do not restrict a true model.

    I have gone thru months of medicine, steroids, chemo, to the point of Harvesting with Percaset and Morphine Minot Killing the pain.
    Changes in weight from 240up to 278 to my current 255 with suspected weight loss to less than 230.

    Last Night went to wash my hair and and 2 large clumps came out in my hands.
    My wife took me to Tip Top Barbers on 52Ave near 16th st. In Marlborough area.
    Had my head clipped
    Head and beard electric razored.
    Head and face hot Toweled.
    Head and Face straight razored.

    My hockey friends laughed and fired with Lurch and Butter bean.
    My 14 year old going to a school 4 times the size he was in before said Ilooked like an Ian before he put the Vader mask on.
    My 7 year old daughter said I rocked Bald.
    My 10 year old said it was weird and he liked me better with hair. But he loved me.

    Friday was super hero day.
    My 7 yr daughter went as Harry Potter.
    The teacher said I did not Know he was super hero.
    The 7 yr old snotty teachers pet girl. Said he is not.

    My daughter looked at the snotty girl.
    He is good
    He has powers
    He fights evil.
    He has a cape.
    Do you even know what a super hero is.

    The class laughed.

    Imagine that an academic trained teacher not thinking beyond the norm to understand the truth.

    I love my Family and

  36. rickithebear says:

    VOR:
    The question of weather I found that roster.
    Is the wrong question.
    Did I notice that Tallon, Mcphee, Lombardi, PC, Lamoriello, Shero McPhee build the same core in
    CHI,
    WSH,
    LAK,
    BOS
    NJD,
    PIT 09, 16, 17.
    VGK
    And all the GM,s teams back to 1996 that fit that repeat roster.

    Remember I mentioned all the theoretical material scientists who follow a simplified Boolean approach now?

    I also stated that
    I hated Nurse the rover.
    And
    liked Nurse the WJC HD dman (Sutter & my Robot)

    SOE = Robots

    Sutter @ Cactus Corner, “ we are turning them into fucking Robots”

    I really hate a 3.2M rover Nurse.
    But would dance a jig
    For a YAwney whispered 3.2M HD robot Nurse.

    Cancer
    And
    You posting what I struggled to explain without standing in front of you.
    Allows me to be just a hockey Fan again.
    Go Oilers!

    Academia following my rejection of the linear scientific process 30 years ago.

    What better Acknowledgment of my process.

    This made me think of my Family Pysician Dr. green I n PA. Sask.
    I was Allergic to everything.
    In late 60,s & early 70,s he developed a Multi Vitamin, Bee stinger Injection treatment, controlled diet partnered with
    Recapture of personal Electrolites thru 3 temp distillation of my own urine.
    It cured 35 identified groups of allergy.

    My Getting man to the moon father thought it made sense.

    The actress Janet-Laine Greens father had his license taken away for his theory and successful work.

    That quack!
    Doses of Antihistamien
    Multi vitamins
    Re established electrolytes
    Controlled diet.

    People question change
    And
    Protect what they believe no mater what.

    Go Oilers!

  37. Ribs says:

    rickithebear: Cancer
    And
    You posting what I struggled to explain without standing in front of you.
    Allows me to be just a hockey Fan again.
    Go Oilers!

    It’d be super cool to see you guys team up and post some stuff!

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