Secondary Modern

A good guess has the Oilers signing Ryan McLeod sometime over the next 100 hours, giving him another game, and then sending the impressive youngster back to junior for the year. I’m not certain McLeod has fallen short of opening night, but the smart money has him flying back to Ontario. No matter what happens, McLeod is easily the most outstanding second-round pick of the decade, and it isn’t close.

THE ATHLETIC!

It’s almost here! On Monday, you are invited to a party at The Rec Room (south side). The Athletic Edmonton group would love to meet you, chat about the new season and the team in general. You can register (we need to know how many are coming, just like your Mom at Christmas) in the link below.

The Athletic Edmonton lineup will be there, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Eric Duhatschek will attend! I’ll be there to make sure everyone uses a coaster, and I’d love to see you there. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Special offer is here, less than $4 a month!

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A pair of Ryans: Oilers McLeod, Strome strengthen families’ bond as teammates.
  • New Lowetide: After more Oilers’ cuts, roster decisions coming into focus.
  • New Tyler Dellow: Is Connor McDavid good enough to make a power play with five left shots work?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Former Oiler Dave Manson on coaching, nicknames and his raspy voice.
  • The Athletic Cross Canada Tour Will hit Edmonton!
  • New Lowetide: RE 18-19: Cam Talbot is key to Oilers success in 2018-19
  • Lowetide: RE 18-19: A case for the defence.
  • Lowetide: RE 18-19: Ryan Strome and the Oilers long journey to competent third and fourth lines
  • Lowetide: RE 18-19: Leon Draisaitl and the pursuit of a second outscoring line in ’18-19
  • Lowetide: RE 18-19: Can the McDavid line lead the 2018-19 Oilers to the playoffs?
  • New Jonathan Willis: Challenge accepted: Young RW’s showcase skill in Oilers preseason game.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Assessing the aftermath from Darnell Nurse’s deal with the Oilers.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Pleasant and unpleasant surprises from Tuesday’s training camp cuts.
  • New Lowetide: Oilers sign Nurse to a two-year deal.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Can Tobias Rieder be the perfect complement to Leon Draisaitl?

PRESEASON SCORING, SECOND-ROUND PICKS, 2010+

  1. 2018 Ryan McLeod 3, 0-2-2
  2. 2013 Marco Roy 1, 1-0-1
  3. 2010 Tyler Pitlick 1, 0-0-0 
  4. 2011 David Musil 1, 0-0-0 
  5. 2012 Mitchell Moroz 0, 0-0-0
  6. 2010 Curtis Hamilton 0, 0-0-0
  7. 2010 Martin Marincin 0, 0-0-0
  8. 2016 Tyler Benson 0, 0-0-0

Edmonton has drafted eight men in the second round since 2010, Ryan McLeod laps the field in pre-season scoring. The fleet center has been more impressive without the puck than with it, a truly unusual thing. I don’t know where this thing is going but the arrows on McLeod are terrific.

CERTAIN OILERS

  • We’re edging closer to the final roster, I added both goaltenders to the final list today. There hasn’t been any separation between Mikko Koskinen and Al Montoya—in fact, I’m not certain we know the name of the goalie Todd McLellan will dress as backup for Game One in Sweden at this time.
  • The No. 1 line looks very good after the first exhibition game, that No. 2 line may need a resurrection shuffle. I would move Jesse Puljujarvi up.
  • Drake Caggiula is on this list, a big part of the reason is the organization’s commitment to him. I don’t think he loses a roster spot this fall, but a year from now he won’t be an Oiler if he can’t contribute more to positive results than one year ago. The kids are knocking on the door.
  • I’m fascinated to see how Todd McLellan handles Milan Lucic if he struggles this season. If the No. 2 line can’t rhyme, and the club moves the Finn to that trio, would they demote Tobias Rieder? And if that doesn’t work? This is just about the most interesting Oilers season since Craig MacTavish was coach. Lots of careers in play.
  • Jakub Jerabek has this team made, but is he No. 6 or No. 7 D?

UNCERTAIN OILERS

  • The first of the uncertain group (Ryan Stanton) has been sent down.
  • There are three spots left, likely two defensemen and a forward. My guess is the final three names will be Scottie Upshall, Kevin Gravel and Evan Bouchard.
  • If I were king, my three keepers would be Pontus Aberg, Evan Bouchard and Josh Leivo on waivers. Yes, I know Bouchard is too young and it’s a mistake. Give me temptation, I want to see cherry outlet passes this winter.

THE DISTANT BELLS

  • We’re down to three, and honestly’s it’s really one (Ryan McLeod). He is the distant bell champion without a single chime.

I would like this to be true, but Todd McLellan’s job is on the line and veteran coaches rarely make the risky call in these situations. McLellan is much maligned among the math folks, for me he’s a typical veteran coach (stubborn in his ways, just like MacT) and that may mean another season in junior for Bouchard. It’ll be more fun with the kid in the NHL, he’s already very good at the headman pass. Tape-to-tape, on the fly. Music!

  • McLellan on Bouchard: “His play with the puck on his tape and poise to make passes is elite. He’s already ahead of some people in that area.” (Tony Brar, NHL.com).

PROJECTED OPENING NIGHT ROSTER

  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Connor McDavid—Ty Rattie
  • Milan Lucic—Leon Draisaitl—Tobias Rieder
  • Jujhar Khaira—Ryan Strome—Jesse Puljujarvi
  • Drake Caggiula—Kyle Brodziak—Zack Kassian
  • Scottie Upshall
  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Darnell Nurse—Matt Benning
  • Kris Russell—Evan Bouchard
  • Jakob Jerabek
  • Cam Talbot (Mikko Koskinen) (Al Montoya)

Is that a playoff team? I’m never going to bet against a Connor McDavid team. Ever.

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255 Responses to "Secondary Modern"

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  1. VOR says:

    leadfarmer: The correct answer of course is pick A and trade Lucic for B.
    So what did I win?

    One more time. There is no right answer. Either pick is good. The point is understanding how you decide.

  2. Pretendergast says:

    VOR,

    I would take the 2nd ‘bigger’ player because first, i think i know who it is, but also because I saw the passing skills.

    Today’s NHL game is dictated by sublime passing. Heck, all of us are head over heels for a player who can’t play a lick of defence purely because Bouchard’s passing is such an asset to creating offence.

    A guy who can think the game well, make great passes, and have a big body is almost assured to have 1. A long career 2. Success in any era 3. Make everyone AROUND him better. That has incredible value to me.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: “Todd you’re about to get fired unless the team starts off hot.”

    “We have the perfect defenceman, but we want to send him back to junior.”

    He is far from the perfect d-man right now.

    An argument can be made that he’s been “giving up” just at much as he’s giving and hasn’t even seen an established top 6 player on the other side yet.

  4. Pretendergast says:

    The fact I think I know who the players are on these subtle hints shows how perceptions for speed can change over time but big brain big body and passing are forever.

    Then again I could be wrong, still stand by the assertion.

  5. healthyscratch says:

    Draisaitl and Pastrnak

  6. Munny says:

    VOR:
    Jaxon,

    You have identified the draft and one of the players.

    Couturier is my guess for the bigger fellah right from your first post; fit like a glove. So I’d say Huberdeau is the lightning bug.

    I’d take the bigger feller, if he’s unique.

    But really it comes down to what my team needs at time of acquisition. Dynamic scoring or a possession hound.

  7. Bank Shot says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – but if today they are inter changeable and your question is which one do you pick without regard for the future the answer is it doesn’t matter.They are different but equal so who cares?

    That’s pretty much it. It doesn’t matter if they are the same. 🙂

    I would pick center over winger if they play different positions.

  8. Derek says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Then for sure you take B

    – A is fully formed: and over time he’s going to get slower

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – b though he will become a better and better skater every year.

    I don’t understand why one player will slow with age but the other will not?

    Edit to add: I pick the Center. Failing that I pick player A. I feel that elite speed and elite iq will keep player A in the game longer.

    Edit: #2 I guess they both seem to have elite IQ or vision so I can’t really use that argument. I feel Player A will age better as long as he is able to avoid injury.

    Player B may end up being more cost effective if hes a better 2 way player with lower scoring totals, you may be able to pay him less and make the team around him better.

  9. Bank Shot says:

    Munny: Couturier is my guess for the bigger fellah right from your first post; fit like a glove.So I’d say Huberdeau is the lightning bug.

    I’d take the bigger feller, if he’s unique.

    But really it comes down to what my team needs at time of acquisition.Dynamic scoring or a possession hound.

    Huberdeau never scored 30 goals.

    Could be Gaudreau vs Couturier.

    I take Couturier assuming last year wasn’t a fluke.

  10. VOR says:

    I did use Gaudreau and Couturier.

    But can anyone tell me the heuristic and the bias we have just been exploring?

  11. VOR says:

    And how they blow up draft after draft?

  12. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Derek,

    – not sure if your being a di$k?

    – the speedster his calling card is speed

    – the big guy he’s a passer who isn’t elite skater

    – they both will slow down but b his speed is less important to his success and he can improve his skating.

    – while they will both slow down that’s less important to the bigger guy

    – but vor said he isn’t asking about the future. Because for sure I’m right then you take the guy who can improve with only hard work because he’s a hard worker

    – but if they are different but equal and contribute the same it doesn’t matter. Some might like the speedster some might like the shake and bake.

    – so he’s identifying bias. The correct answer is who cares because they are both right now equally good. And I’m assuming same scoring rates same d prowess etc despite differences in attributes.

  13. Glovjuice says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Derek,

    – not sure if your being a di$k?

    – the speedster his calling card is speed

    – the big guy he’s a passer who isn’t elite skater

    – they both will slow down but b his speed is less important to his success and he can improve his skating.

    – while they will both slow down that’s less important to the bigger guy

    – but vor said he isn’t asking about the future. Because for sure I’m right then you take the guy who can improve with only hard work because he’s a hard worker

    – but if they are different but equal and contribute the same it doesn’t matter. Some might like the speedster some might like the shake and bake.

    – so he’s identifying bias. The correct answer is who cares because they are both right now equally good. And I’m assuming same scoring rates same d prowess etc despite differences in attributes.

    Recently bias levels Couterier with Johnny – prior to last year no GM in the league would take the flyer over the flame

  14. Derek says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Derek,

    – not sure if your being a di$k?

    – the speedster his calling card is speed

    – the big guy he’s a passer who isn’t elite skater

    – they both will slow down but b his speed is less important to his success and he can improve his skating.

    – while they will both slow down that’s less important to the bigger guy

    – but vor said he isn’t asking about the future. Because for sure I’m right then you take the guy who can improve with only hard work because he’s a hard worker

    – but if they are different but equal and contribute the same it doesn’t matter. Some might like the speedster some might like the shake and bake.

    – so he’s identifying bias. The correct answer is who cares because they are both right now equally good. And I’m assuming same scoring rates same d prowess etc despite differences in attributes.

    Hah, yes a little bit dickish I suppose.

    If player A’s speed degenerates over time to a point where his speed is just average is he less valuable than Player B whos speed degenerates to the point where hes slow by todays standards?

    I just don’t see how you can say the speedy player will be poorer over time because of a loss of speed, when Player B could very well become MIlan Lucic. Player A is still going to get to the play, he’ll just arrive at the same time as the opposition. Player B won’t make it at all.

  15. VOR says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Derek,

    – not sure if your being a di$k?

    – the speedster his calling card is speed

    – the big guy he’s a passer who isn’t elite skater

    – they both will slow down but b his speed is less important to his success and he can improve his skating.

    – while they will both slow down that’s less important to the bigger guy

    – but vor said he isn’t asking about the future. Because for sure I’m right then you take the guy who can improve with only hard work because he’s a hard worker

    – but if they are different but equal and contribute the same it doesn’t matter. Some might like the speedster some might like the shake and bake.

    – so he’s identifying bias. The correct answer is who cares because they are both right now equally good. And I’m assuming same scoring rates same d prowess etc despite differences in attributes.

    The correct answer is who cares. This leaves us to figure out what goes wrong in deciding when to care and when to not bother.

  16. Jaxon says:

    VOR:
    Jaxon,

    You have identified the draft and one of the players.

    Is it Barkov-MacKinnon although I don’t think MacKinnon was considered small. I’ve given my reasoning for picking the faster player, albeit with some caveats. I’m at a loss for who it might be in the past 13 years.

    Kessel? But he was 6′, 190lbs and came with all kinds of attitude concerns so that can’t be the player you’re describing with A or B.

    Oooh, is it Toews vs Giroux?!

  17. VOR says:

    Glovjuice: Recently bias levels Couterier with Johnny – prior to last year no GM in the league would take the flyer over the flame

    I picked them because at this moment, at 25, they are of similar perceived value they are equal.

  18. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR: I picked them because at this moment, at 25, they are of similar perceived value they are equal.

    If you can figure out how to draft outliers like Gaudreau successfully I hope you invite me to your mansions, with the rest of us for a party.

    The only changes on hockey are rooted in the league head office. It’s not organic in players, it’s completely driven by what the league decides in it’s arbitrary and fluid manor, what is acceptable.

    When the concussion crises is over – and it will be at some point – what if they go back to rugby on ice?

    Bye bye Gaudreau, Yama, Ennis, etc. Just as the pylons at D and staged fighters left, the undersized will start disappearing and heavy ruffian players will start reappearing. Sure in a different flavour, but obstruction eliminates the effectiveness of weaker lighter players.

  19. VOR says:

    Glovjuice: Recently bias levels Couterier with Johnny – prior to last year no GM in the league would take the flyer over the flame

    The way I constructed the exercise was chosen deliberately to confound people who insist that any historic data is wrong because it is in the past. In other words what I cared about was to find a data pair that were bomb proof against those who suffer from recency bias. I assumed a number of other pairs would be proposed moving to universality.

    But again that had nothing to do with my real goal which was and is to explore how we decide what to care about and what to ignore.

  20. frjohnk says:

    VOR,

    Great stuff.

    Thanks

  21. who says:

    I would pick Gaudreau over Coutier.
    We should remember that this is the entertainment business. Who would you rather watch? I prefer to watch the pure skill guys.

  22. Side says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    When the concussion crises is over – and it will be at some point – what if they go back to rugby on ice?

    Bye bye Gaudreau, Yama, Ennis, etc. Just as the pylons at D and staged fighters left, the undersized will start disappearing and heavy ruffian players will start reappearing. Sure in a different flavour, but obstruction eliminates the effectiveness of weaker lighter players.

    Sorry – what do you mean “when the concussion crisis is over”?

    Also, what does concussions have to do with ruffians obstructing players?

    Concussion crisis doesn’t have much to do with stifling the weaker, lighter players. Unless you are suggesting when the concussion crisis is over, ruffian players will have free reign on punching weaker, lighter players in the head.

  23. Glovjuice says:

    VOR: The way I constructed the exercise was chosen deliberately to confound people who insist that any historic data is wrong because it is in the past. In other words what I cared about was to find a data pair that were bomb proof against those who suffer from recency bias. I assumed a number of other pairs would be proposed moving to universality.

    But again that had nothing to do with my real goal which was and is to explore how we decide what to care about and what to ignore.

    Fun exercise – still can’t se many taking Sean over Johnny – so not equal – but, my opinion of course.

  24. Matticus says:

    Let’s say the plan is to trade for a d-man like faulk or whoever, then who are we trading away?

  25. Bank Shot says:

    I originally had considered Gaudreau but then discounted him because he isn’t a “extraordinarily fast, explosive skater”.

    He’s a quick skater with amazing agility, but the scouting report leaves you with the impression he was a speed demon.

    The biggest take away for me is that scouting reports are written like everyone is Gretzky. haha

    Given the two scouting reports you are likely to think that these two players would be relative equals defensively.
    Perhaps they were on draft day, but today Sean is a much more rounded player.

    He’s more valuable than Gaudreau if he can maintain 60-70ish points per season. If he drops back down to 40 point well its Johnny in a walk.

  26. VOR says:

    When I started to realize how critical I was becoming of the hockey analytics community/movement I realized it isn’t their motives to which I objected. I share the motives, or at least I think I do. I want to enrich our understanding of hockey and help fans get more out of the game, to help players improve their performance and to help managers/coaches to make smarter decisions.

    It is my position that the sabermetric approach is accomplishing none of these goals. But I would go even further and say no matter how much better it was executed and there is significant room for improvement reductionist mathematical tools will not accomplish these goals. The approach is fatally flawed.

    So I am attempting to approach hockey with different analytical tools. One of which is the process of identifying and confirming heuristics. Exactly what rules of thumb, simplification tricks, are our minds using to think about hockey. And what biases are creeping in as a result of our use of these tricks?

    I then realized I have been headed in this direction for years. Which is probably confirmation bias.

    Today’s exercise wasn’t about deciding which player was better, or identifying them. I said at this moment in time the players are equal, yet many people tried to argue me out of that position. The human mind wants to see differences that don’t exist,

    This is the bias that creeps in when we attempt something like speed dating. We rank our prospective dates based on just two minutes, a spoonful of data, of talking with a prospective match. Study after study has shown we use a series of ranking heuristics and end up binning people in ways that lead to fewer dates not more and far fewer successful dates. We turn our quitting thresholds to two minutes. We miss obvious optimization strategies as a result and we end up seeing differences that don’t exist.

    The draft works like that and the result is bizarre draft misses and huge ranking mistakes, but that is a subject for another day.

  27. Glovjuice says:

    Matticus:
    Let’s say the plan is to trade for a d-man like faulk or whoever, then who are we trading away?

    Someone – that’s as close as I can predict – 31 teams – 31 GMs – endless trade needs from said teams – endless variables – someone it is.

  28. Pretendergast says:

    VOR,

    In other words, congratulations, I played myself.

  29. Oz says:

    VOR,

    I cannot answer the second part as I do not know rosters well enough, and also we had friends over for supper and we were very busy solving our problems through the bottom of some fine red wine bottles😎
    Oh and by the way during the course of the evening I raised my glass to you, and the others wondered what the hell I was doing

  30. Pescador says:

    Side:
    VOR, it’s Colonel Mustard, in the Conservatory, with the wrench.

    winner

  31. Pescador says:

    Glovjuice: Fun exercise – still can’t se many taking Sean over Johnny – so not equal – but, my opinion of course.

    Columbus took Pierre Luc Dubois, we got Yessa. (love Yessa!)
    I believe Monahan will be more consistent, more consistently
    beer

  32. Wilde says:

    The more video I do on the early parts of last season, the more I see Lucic’s zonal transition game better than I remember.

    I’ve been concerned about him all summer, because people defending him were invoking variance wrt his scoring, but of course his problems branched out further than that and he was having trouble handling and distributing pucks, which was a black cloud over his chances of recovering his game.

    The way I remembered it was he wasn’t himself all year when it came to taking and making a pass, and January-on the scoring dried up too, but when I’m re-watching games from last Fall he looks much better than my memory has been telling me. He should be completely fine as a 2/3LW.

  33. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s 2018-19 Death March™ is Back!! Here’s how you enter: Predict the final points total of the Oilers 2018-19 season. Tie break: how many goals does Yakupov score in the KHL? That’s it! Contest open until puck drop in Europe.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    who:
    I would pick Gaudreau over Coutier.
    We should remember that this is the entertainment business. Who would you rather watch? I prefer to watch the pure skill guys.

    I prefer to win Stanley Cups and will be in favor of whatever roster construction brings the Cups and I think Cotourier gets the team closer to Stanley than Gaudreau.

  35. Wilde says:

    also, the question is impossible.

    It’s asking, between two ‘absolutely equal’ players, which one you would choose.

    But how did we stumble upon a method of perfect player evaluation in order to come to the conclusion that the players are equal?

    Did they score the exact same amount in the exact same amount of minutes and the exact same role?

    How do we know which players’ scoring is worth more? Do they drive play the exact same way? What does that even entail? Based on how little we know about what is the true optimal hockey play at every moment, how can you tell the players who are playing different styles are truly the exact same in net contribution?

    Either player is going to have different linemates from the other, who has better linemates? How do we also perfectly evaluate their linemates?

    I understand the question is supposed to provoke the biases of the answerer and they are to just pick the player whose style they like better or they feel is a more proficient playstyle, but I don’t think you ever get to choose between two equal prospects with nothing else interfering.

    For example, as soon as the question becomes a tiny bit more practical, like say, who would you rather have on the Oilers, the question becomes more about what the Oilers already have than which each players ground truth, net contribution is.

    I’ve written about the BPA versus drafting for need thing before, and how I feel about it is when you draft for need, choosing between two prospects in the same ‘tier’ of value, you’re not admitting that each player is truly equal, you’re suspending investigations into the minutia of their differences and making the decision that the difference in their ground truth values is overridden by the difference in value you get from shoring up a position of weakness on your team and in your system, like taking Kotkaniemi over Zadina.

    To be clear, if they’re two separate styles of player but supposed to be the same objective value, and you’re to choose between each other and establish why, what you’re doing is saying that the player you chose is innately more valuable because their style contributes more to winning.

    To play along and answer the question is to outright reject the premise that the players are equal.

  36. Wilde says:

    (So in order for your answer to illustrate your biases it would be in your evaluation of the game of hockey and not of your evaluation of each player)

  37. leadfarmer says:

    VOR:
    I did use Gaudreau and Couturier.

    But can anyone tell me the heuristic and the bias we have just been exploring?

    The bias is definitely comparing a player who was drafted in the 4th round to a player who had a chance to be drafted #1 OV
    The bias is comparing a center to a winger.
    The bias is assuming the two have the same value which they don’t. Couts is bumped by being a center, but he needed a serious offensive partner push to get any offense out of him. While Gadreau has been his own driver.
    The bias is when they were drafted the bias was towards the players with size while the bias now has shifted to players with speed.
    I don’t get this theoretical exercise. We are supposed to see through all of the authors biases to identify our own? Kind of silly

  38. Wilde says:

    it’s micro-stat time

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/sean.tierney#!/vizhome/Passingtypesbyteam-201718/Passingtypes-heatmappedandsized?publish=yes

    This is Sean Tierney’s work visualising Corey Sznajder’s passing data that’s grouped into different types of passes(that become shot assists), divided up into percentages of the total passes by the team by category.

    (It doesn’t add up to 100% because of overlap, this’ll make sense when you see the pass typing)

    The Oilers went:

    Left Lane – 36.23% / / 15th in NHL

    Centre Lane – 22.55% / / 20th in NHL

    Right Lane – 35.79% / / 15th in NHL

    Low-to-High – 22.60% / / 10th in NHL

    Stretch Pass – 2.27% / / 27th in NHL

    Behind the Net – 6.65% / / 16th in NHL

    Home Plate – 4.38% / / 21st in NHL

    Now all I want is a McDavid-off version.

    That stretch pass % makes a certain Evan Bouchard’s arrival awfully important.

    I’m surprised at how little I’m surprised, though I have watched and re-watched a ton of Oilers’ hockey from the last year, but everything they’re low in are types I thought they were low in, and vice versa, just the league context varies form what I would have guessed, like I would have said they were top-5 in low-to-high passes.

    They still might have been, just that the shot didn’t go off every time. Lots of plays they would go low-to-high, then down low, to high, etc. Without taking a shot until the 3rd or 4th verse, especially when the bottom six was on.

  39. hunter1909 says:

    Wilde: To play along and answer the question is to outright reject the premise that the players are equal.

    Eventually, Lowetide becomes that place in the Middle Ages when learned monks debated such important matters as: “How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?”

  40. Wilde says:

    Here’s shots allowed:

    (this is Nth highest in the NHL, so being 1st in home plate passes against means you allow the most in the NHL)

    Low-to-high – 20.78% / / 13th in NHL

    Stretch pass – 2.77% / / 13th in NHL (PIT lapped the field here and were stretch passed against for 3.92% of total passes)

    Behind the net – 7.38% / / 11th in NHL

    Home plate – 5.52% / / 10th in NHL

  41. leadfarmer says:

    Wilde,

    Completely agree. This activity is very flawed. We are assuming that this is Couturier that is flanked by an elite player in Giroux and a very high end offensive player in Voracek or good offensive player in Konecny and not Couturier of a year ago that couldn’t break 40 points for 6 years.
    Cause if I’m spending a lot of high end assets acquiring Couture I’d want the other guys and the elite offensively Ghost and very good offensively Provorov to come with.

  42. VOR says:

    Wilde is right how the hell would you know two players are equal? I said unbiased observers would consider them equal – which is a theoretical construct. But I also said when I revealed the players people would debate who was the player of greater value. QED.

    But nobody has yet stumbled on the specific heuristic in play here or noticed, apparently the biases that slipped in as a result of the use of the specific heuristic.

    I am not playing anyone – or trying to get them to play themselves – though that is what an unrecognized bias does to us. I am trying to create a new kind of math for thinking about hockey and to help program computers. It needs to be transparent and intuitive and I am stumbling towards that. I am seeking the language to talk about what is in my head and clearly failing.

    People are using a variety of analytical tools to try to understand the question or invalidate it Which is great. But I would deeply appreciate it if some of you took time to think about what rules of thumb you use when ranking players. We saw some last night – like “the faster the better”, “all other things being equal take the center”, “it all comes down to what the NHL mandates”, “speedsters lose speed faster than average skaters”, “dominant junior players who dominate with size and strength don’t take that dominance to the next level of hockey” and others. Whether these are true or false or sometimes true and sometimes false they are classic rules of thumb, heuristics in other words. And thus my interest.

    I am building a data base of hockey heuristics.

  43. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Side: Sorry – what do you mean “when the concussion crisis is over”?

    Also, what does concussions have to do with ruffians obstructing players?

    Concussion crisis doesn’t have much to do with stifling the weaker, lighter players.Unless you are suggesting when the concussion crisis is over, ruffian players will have free reign on punching weaker, lighter players in the head.

    What I mean is that while lawsuits loom the league will want to limit things that may lead to concussions.

    To me when obstruction (cheating) is allowed the game is heavier and more physical and violent. Not that players don’t get hurt now, but it isn’t the same when the refs will call penalties that limit physical interference.

    This allows skill to thrive and it is as we see more smaller skill players. There have always been some, just not a lot. If the rules being called go back, it is far harder to be 165 lbs in the NHL.

    The league has ebbed and flowed over decades in style, it will again. Once the current legal situation has finished and the league isn’t under financial threat, that is when change to older ways ‘might’ begin to happen.

  44. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    leadfarmer,

    – no offence guys (lead Wilde and others who think vors “experiment” was dumb but your missing he point of vor’s thiught exercise

    – you guys are stuck in the weeds and semantics failing to understand his point

    – the exercise wasn’t to get the right answer but show and ask us to recognize our biases

    – also vor is one of the few on this blog that actually has experience with training elite athletes and trying to integrate a math science socio methodology into evaluation

    – for the record I think you guys are both kind of dumb (using your language) for dismissing this

  45. Glovjuice says:

    Wilde:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Yes Kinger, I dismissed it. That’s what that was. Definitely didn’t give it time or thought.

    Good lord, what an obnoxious thing to say.

    If you read what I wrote and got from it that I was calling the exercise dumb outright, I’d encourage you to give someone’s point of view a bit more thought before calling them a name because if you’re going to be rude, you better be right, and it’s a hell of a lot easier to just to be fair.

    Bike racks, pre-teens, bike racks.

  46. godot10 says:

    Glovjuice: Recently bias levels Couterier with Johnny – prior to last year no GM in the league would take the flyer over the flame

    Lowetide loved Courturier pre-draft and Woodguy has been promoting him post- draft as one of the most underrated players in the league.

    I think more than a few GM’s and coaches would have selected him over Gaudreau even before last year.

    Gaudreau’s stats would not be as good if he had to play with the stiffs that Courturier often had too.

  47. Wilde says:

    Glovjuice: Bike racks, pre-teens, bike racks.

    Mind getting rid of the quote?

  48. Dustylegnd says:

    leadfarmer,

    Lets Give Monahan the credit he deserves here as well, he is an elite play maker and has an exceptional release….it’s not like Johnny is playing with plugs like McDavid was shackled with last year.

    Certainly on a points per game played basis Johnny is far out in front of Couturier over his career

    Last year Woodguy posted a stat about controlled zone entries which of course is Dominated by McDavid but #2 wad Johnny and #3 was Hall….hmmm what do all three have in common?……World class skating, that isn’t going away anytime soon

    Coffee, Messier, Gartner, Niedermayer, Peter Bondra, Feodorov, Orr, BUre…the vast majority of these player had incredible careers that lasted a long time…those who didn’t have exceptionally long careers suffered multiple devastating injuries

    My point is this: these exception skaters were still better skaters than 90% of the NHL deep into their 30’s….they don’t slow down until their 30’s…so give me the guy that can skate….the big guy that struggles to skate becomes less useful the closer he gets to 30

    I believe peak scoring occurs at 24 or 25?…..I am very curious to see Johnny vs Couturier over the next 8 years

    Couturier is a .536 pp/g player career to date
    Goudreau is a .923 pp/g player career to date

    Johnny’s NHL career has been shorter, so if we overlay Couturier vs Johnny 2014 forward, Couturier still is only .634 pp/g

    Couturier was taken 8th overall, Johnny went 105 overall….I love the approach the flames took….third rounders have a very low probability of playing even 100 NHL games…so why not draft the ones who have 1st round potential vs (we liked his work ethic, attitude and leadership abilities) ya but can he score or dish or skate like a demon????

    I have watched the fools in Oilers management continuously chase the wrong player attributes for over 20 years now….I think Gretzky the younger may be the 1 rational voice in the dark

    To sum up……I take Johnny over Couturier because of the speed, elusiveness and ability to gain the offensive zone

    PS: My man crush Stevey Y won that 2011 draft going away….he pulled Kucherov at 58th .915 pp/g and Palat at #208 .696 pp/g

    Championships are won by 2nd and third round picks that exceed all expectations….ohh and you can’t miss on 1st round picks in the process either….

    So what is it the Tampa scouts see that most of the other scouts don’t see…..or what kind of player development model are they using that jacks these guys to the stratosphere

    Kucherov, Palata, Point, Gourde,Tyler Johnson, Kilorn….not one of these players taken before 58 overall….2 of them undrafted…lowest point total last year 45

    I look at this roster and shake my head when I compare it to the Oilers….and we won’t even bother comparing the D

    It would appear that Tampa was an early adapter to the new rules of the league and put a premium on skating and creativity when it came to securing talent…..how can Edmonton not dig into every aspect of Tampa’s player procurement system and player development system???

  49. Glovjuice says:

    Dustylegnd:
    leadfarmer,

    Lets Give Monahan the credit he deserves here as well, he is an elite play maker and has an exceptional release….it’s not like Johnny is playing with plugs like McDavid was shackled with last year.

    Certainly on a points per game played basis Johnny is far out in front of Couturier over his career

    Last year Woodguy posted a stat about controlled zone entries which of course is Dominated by McDavid but #2 wad Johnny and #3 was Hall….hmmm what do all three have in common?……World class skating, that isn’t going away anytime soon

    Coffee, Messier, Gartner, Niedermayer, Peter Bondra, Feodorov, Orr, BUre…the vast majority of these player had incredible careers that lasted a long time…those who didn’t have exceptionally long careers suffered multiple devastating injuries

    My point is this: these exception skaters were still better skaters than 90% of the NHL deep into their 30’s….they don’t slow down until their 30’s…so give me the guy that can skate….the big guy that struggles to skate becomes less useful the closer he gets to 30

    I believe peak scoring occurs at 24 or 25?…..I am very curious to see Johnny vs Couturier over the next 8 years

    Couturier is a .536 pp/g player career to date
    Goudreau is a .923 pp/g player career to date

    Johnny’s NHL career has been shorter, soif we overlay Couturier vs Johnny 2014 forward, Couturier still is only .634 pp/g

    Couturier was taken 8th overall, Johnny went 105 overall….I love the approach the flames took….third rounders have a very low probability of playing even 100 NHL games…so why not draft the ones who have 1st round potential vs (we liked his work ethic, attitude and leadership abilities) ya but can he score or dish or skate like a demon????

    I have watched the fools in Oilers management continuously chase the wrong player attributes for over 20 years now….I think Gretzky the younger may be the 1 rational voice in the dark

    To sum up……I take Johnny over Couturier because of the speed, elusiveness and ability to gain the offensive zone

    PS: My man crush Stevey Y won that 2011 draft going away….he pulled Kucherov at 58th .915 pp/g and Palat at #208 .696 pp/g

    Championships are won by 2nd and third round picks that exceed all expectations….ohh and you can’t miss on 1st round picks in the process either….

    So what is it the Tampa scouts see that most of the other scouts don’t see…..or what kind of player development model are they using that jacks these guys to the stratosphere

    Kucherov, Palata, Point, Gourde,Tyler Johnson, Kilorn….not one of these players taken before 58 overall….2 of them undrafted…lowest point total last year 45

    I look at this roster and shake my head when I compare it to the Oilers….and we won’t even bother comparing the D

    It would appear that Tampa was an early adapter to the new rules of the league and put a premium on skating and creativity when it came to securing talent…..how can Edmonton not dig into every aspect of Tampa’s player procurement system and player development system???

    thanks, much better rationale for Johnny over Sean than I, and…TB just plucked another off waivers again displaying their relentless persuit of continuous improvement.

  50. leadfarmer says:

    Dustylegnd,

    No Monahan is a very good player. But is a step below offensively than Giroux and Voracek. And Ferland is nowhere near a comparison

  51. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Wilde: also, the question is impossible.

    – Wilde says: “also, the question is impossible.”. Wilde says: ” as soon as the question becomes a tiny bit more practical” Lead agrees with Wilde: “Completely agree. This activity is very flawed”

    – Kinger says the the two of you are missing the point. Certainly your comments were dismissive of Vor’s over-arching theme

    – Wilde does not agree, but Kinger rereads: for sure when you say thing like above you are dismissive. That’s just dumb IMO to dismiss Vor, who is a gifted thought-provoking poster

  52. russ99 says:

    Jerabek has been underwhelming, don’t think he has a spot yet.

    Fans are putting way too much weight into breakout passes. It’s part of the game, but not the only part.

    I’d really prefer an NHL defenseman added via waivers or lesser trade than force Bouchard in. We have a rough opening schedule, and defensive mistakes could be ampflifed, which could sidetrack the kid and our chances for a good start.

    Said this a while ago, but the org needs to turn a corner with not forcing in high picks and kids in lieu of NHL average players.

  53. workaroundaccount says:

    Scungilli Slushy: What I mean is that while lawsuits loom the league will want to limit things that may lead to concussions.

    To me when obstruction (cheating) is allowed the game is heavier and more physical and violent. Not that players don’t get hurt now, but it isn’t the same when the refs will call penalties that limit physical interference.

    This allows skill to thrive and it is as we see more smaller skill players. There have always been some, just not a lot. If the rules being called go back, it is far harder to be 165 lbs in the NHL.

    The league has ebbed and flowed over decades in style, it will again. Once the current legal situation has finished and the league isn’t under financial threat, that is when change to older ways ‘might’ begin to happen.

    This concussion thing isn’t going away. There is absolute hysteria in the non-sports community about their kids playing contact sports. There’s no checking untill high school. Flag football numbers are surging. Obstruction will find it’s way back into the game, because the powers that be hate calling penalties when they matter most (close and important games).

  54. rickithebear says:

    Bear gets a goal on pp. 3 times easier to score than even.
    Gives up a ga on pp which is 7 times easier to defend than even.

    Quick transition passes
    That is critical to no opposition NZ trap OZ transition play.
    A critical sequence.
    I have pushed elite D passing

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