What’s he building in there?

Peter Chiarelli did the things he needed to this summer, in the opinion of this blog’s author—and it could cost him his job. In keeping the No. 10 overall pick, in not trading Oscar Klefbom or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Jesse Puljujarvi, he has kept an eye on the future and refrained from mortgaging the 2020’s (he also did some strange things but it was a much better June). That is a good thing but leaves him vulnerable.

I wonder.

His Last Chance Texaco for this season is probably today, or tomorrow. If he’s going to make a move, we might see it in the minutes before the final rosters have to be in to NHL head office. He has a signed defenseman (Jakob Jarabek) flapping in the wind, an idea about youngsters Evan Bouchard and Ethan Bear, plus some kind of list from the coaching staff in regard to areas of need. I’ve been watching this organization for decades, and can’t quite accept the idea the Edmonton Oilers will keep their powder dry for an entire offseason. This offseason ends on Tuesday. This is going to be close.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Special offer is here, less than $4 a month!

  • New Lowetide: Oilers waive Aberg, release Jerabek and stand at 25.
  • New Lowetide: Oilers prospects Berglund, Maksimov off to fine starts
  • Lowetide: Is this the year an Edmonton Oilers player wins the Calder Trophy?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evan Bouchard enlists former figure skater to help improve a weakness in his game.
  • Jonathan Willis: Mikko Koskinen temporarily triumphs over Al Montoya, but the real battle for the backup role has just started
  • Eric Duhatschek: Milan Lucic has made changes to try and get his swagger, and scoring touch, back.
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the preseason performance of Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto mean for the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Impressive Cooper Marody preseason could lead to NHL recall.
  • Lowetide: Oilers farm system beginning to resemble the real thing
  • New Lowetide: RE 18-19: Cam Talbot is key to Oilers success in 2018-19
  • Lowetide: RE 18-19: A case for the defence.
  • Lowetide: RE 18-19: Ryan Strome and the Oilers long journey to competent third and fourth lines
  • Lowetide: RE 18-19: Leon Draisaitl and the pursuit of a second outscoring line in ’18-19
  • Lowetide: RE 18-19: Can the McDavid line lead the 2018-19 Oilers to the playoffs?

YESTERDAY WAIVERS

  1. LD Brett Kulak, Calgary Flames. Depth defenseman, most of his value comes defensively. He played the entire year in the NHL 2017-18 averaging only 12:59 a night. He would be a No. 7D option.
  2. R Curtis Lazar, Calgary Flames. Offensively, he’s not far from being the modern J-F Jacques, although he managed 1.09 points-per-60 at 5-on-5 this past season. He has two-way acumen but the big item is offense, and we’re no longer talking about an entry prospect here (he is 23). I don’t think the Oilers will take him.

NEEDS

I think the Oilers are still in need of some help on defense, relying on two rookie blue is unwise, especially if Jason Garrison is the other option. Need help there. I’m impressed with the scoring right wingers but there’s a lack of scoring on left wing in my opinion. Here are the goal totals in the last half (final 41 games) of 2017-18 for opening night 2018-19 starters:

  1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 9 (in 21 games)
  2. Milan Lucic 1 (in 41 games)
  3. Tobias Rieder 6 (in 36 games)
  4. Jujhar Khaira 4 (in 41 games)
  5. Drake Caggiula 8 (in 37 games)

Having a Josh Leivo as insurance seems to me good business. Edmonton has acquired two-way wingers (Rieder) and physical wingers (Alex Chiasson) but an offensive type like Leivo has eluded them. I’m also unsure of the backup goalie.

STRENGTHS

If you are contemplating a season opener with two rookie RHD on the roster, that might be an area of strength. Ethan Bear may not have tremendous trade value now, and it would be a downer to watch him being dealt now. That said, RHD have some of the unicorn in them and Edmonton does have Adam Larsson and Matt Benning on the roster (along with Evan Bouchard and Bear).

It’s also possible to contemplate trading a RHC, in the person of Ryan Strome. Jujhar Khaira had some good shifts in the middle during preseason, perhaps there’s an opportunity there (I bet Khaira himself has some trade value).

PRESEASON STATS (FORWARDS)

  1. Connor McDavid 4, 4-7-11
  2. Ty Rattie 4, 7-4-11
  3. Kailer Yamamoto 6, 6-3-9
  4. Jesse Puljujarvi 5, 4-0-4
  5. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 4, 2-2-4
  6. Jujhar Khaira 5, 1-3-4
  7. Ryan Strome 3, 0-3-3
  8. Drake Caggiula 4, 0-3-3
  9. Milan Lucic 4, 1-1-2
  10. Leon Draisaitl 4, 0-2-2
  11. Alex Chiasson 4, 0-2-2
  12. Tobias Rieder 5, 1-0-1
  13. Kyle Brodziak 5, 0-0-0
  14. Zack Kassian 4, 0-0-0

Oh my the right wingers on this team rocked the casbah in September. It doesn’t mean a blasted thing and we’ve talked forever about the odds of all of your prospects at one position spiking in unison, but we are here. Let’s talk Halloween night, see how it’s going.

PRESEASON STATS (DEFENSE)

  1. Evan Bouchard 4, 1-3-4
  2. Oscar Klefbom 4, 1-2-3
  3. Ethan Bear 4, 2-1-3
  4. Matt Benning 4, 0-3-3
  5. Darnell Nurse 4, 0-1-1
  6. Adam Larsson 4, 0-1-1
  7. Jason Garrison 4, 0-0-0
  8. Kris Russell 2, 0-0-0

Both Bouchard and Bear are helpful in the headman pass category, both men look for an execute impressive outlets to promising areas. I’m impatient to see both as mature, established NHL men.

PRESEASON STATS (GOALIES)

  1. Cam Talbot 4, 1.92 .943
  2. Mikko Koskinen 3, 3.68 .855
  3. Al Montoya 1, 3.00 .929

Talbot’s excellence is key and he delivered in preseason early and late. Koskinen had a wild and crazy time in exhibition play but settled in at the end. I want to wish Al Montoya and family the best as they await a new addition.

That’s why drafting Evan Bouchard and Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi in the years after were so important, why Ryan McLeod and Filip Berglund and Stuart Skinner developing is vital. Edmonton didn’t own a tremendous feeder system the day Connor McDavid was drafted, in fact if you take Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse away from the two drafts previous to 97’s it’s basically crickets.

In the two drafts previous to Sidney Crosby being selected, the Penguins chose Evgeni Malkin and Marc-Andre Fleury in the first rounds, and Alex Goligoski, Tyler Kennedy, Daniel Carcillo and Matt Moulson in later rounds. I do believe the Oilers are drafting well these days but the development isn’t complete and injuries can derail prospects in a heartbeat.

Peter Chiarelli sent away a ton of draft picks in 2015 and for that he is paying the price last and this season, it might cost him his job as general manager (there is no way to guarantee the playoffs with this group). I am impressed the organization stood and delivered on draft day 2016, 2017 and 2018. It shows renewed maturation and the results should appear on the ice this coming season in the persons of Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Bouchard and perhaps later in the season Tyler Benson.

The Condors won both games this weekend, John McFarland the big revelation for the group. Stuart Skinner stopped 19 of 22 in yesterday’s game, Dylan Wells 19 of 20 on Saturday.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At nine this morning, I’ll be part of a two-hour round table with Dustin Nielson, Lieutenant Eric, Tom Gazzola and Tyler Yaremchuk. We’ll talk about the NHL season to come, focusing on the Oilers, the divisions and award winners. At 11, I’ll welcome in Jason Gregor to discuss the Eskimos loss this weekend and Oilers moves (we should hear about Jerabek by 10, possibly more).

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. It’s going to be a big week!

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242 Responses to "What’s he building in there?"

« Older Comments
  1. Richard S.S. says:

    The point everyone talks about/doesn’t talk about/avoids talking about is who/what gets traded. The Oilers have one more Player (F or D) to sign/acquire to reach 23 on the Roster. Anything less than 23 puts them at a disadvantage. They don’t have enough left ($589,668.00) to do that. If you must add one more, let’s move the needle with the acquisition.

  2. Munny says:

    LT said…

    What’s he building in there?

    Easily my favourite Tom Waits song.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    The point everyone talks about/doesn’t talk about/avoids talking about is who/what gets traded.The Oilers have one more Player (F or D) to sign/acquire to reach 23 on the Roster.Anything less than 23 puts them at a disadvantage. They don’t have enough left ($589,668.00) to do that.If you must add one more, let’s move the needle with the acquisition.

    That one more is likely Jason Garrison I think.

    They have enough left via LTIR cushion – as per my previous post, if they keep the current roster and then put Sekera on LTIR on October 3, it provide a very large cap cushion allowing them to go almost $5M over the cap.

    Of course, as I’ve alluded to, that doesn’t mean they should use the cap cushion given its drought with risk and an ineffective way to manage the cap. Even if they only use a few hundred grand to sign Garrison, the performance bonus issue is there and I plan on Jesse vesting close to $1M in bonuses this year.

  4. Rondo says:

    Munny:
    LT said…

    What’s he building in there?

    Easily my favourite Tom Waits song.

    Munny,

    This one is pretty good too.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ls0xUy3Pils

  5. geowal says:

    Richard S.S.,

    Can always recall someone from Bakersfield. Or sign a PTO. I’d don’t see how it’s a disadvantage.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Prior to the Sekera injury, given how tight to the cap they were going to be this year (and are), I did suggest they would keep a roster of 22 at times through the year to save some cap.

    If we are carrying 2 rookie D, I don’t see it happening any more.

  7. Abbeef says:

    In regards to the conversation I was having with Wilde about Aberg.

    Aberg SCF% 16/17 17/18(Nsh) 17/18(Edm)
    46.15 43.24 47.13

    HDCF% 46.94 45.74 48.68
    Avg SCF/60= 21.575

    Caggiula 50.68 47.15

    49.25 48.51
    Avg SCF/60= 24.215
    (for fun)
    McDavid 53.99 52.48

    58.82 55.08

    Kassian’s numbers were similar to Aberg and Caggiula. The numbers are very similar between these two. As all Aberg brings is a skill game he should bring more scoring chances these stats do not support him being anymore effective at producing scoring chances than Caggiula. In fact his numbers are slightly lower than Caggiula’s.

    Last little bit I’m going to spend on Aberg as he is gone now until he gets sent down by Ana (probably when Perry and/or Kesler is healthy) and is reassigned to Bakersfield.

  8. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar: That one more is likely Jason Garrison I think.

    They have enough left via LTIR cushion – as per my previous post, if they keep the current roster and then put Sekera on LTIR on October 3, it provide a very large cap cushion allowing them to go almost $5M over the cap.

    Of course, as I’ve alluded to, that doesn’t mean they should use the cap cushion given its drought with risk and an ineffective way to manage the cap. Even if they only use a few hundred grand to sign Garrison, the performance bonus issue is there and I plan on Jesse vesting close to $1M in bonuses this year.

    apologies if this has been covered already today,
    How close to the cap do the Oilers need to be in order to utilize (invoke?) said LTIR?
    thanks

  9. Pescador says:

    Jordan: Oilers end the season with 95 Points
    Yakupov scores 22 in the KHL Regular Season.3 in the playoffs.

    Oooo the tie breaker breaker
    nice

  10. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: He could be a solid option (Pickard as well) but we know its not going to happen.The Oilers are not going to carry 3 goalies on the roster and Koskinen is not going anywhere any time soon.

    These are perfect examples of why I was (and am) so vehemently against the Koskinen contract. I would have been just fine with Montoya and adding a third (or 2nd) option near the season.

    I’m not claiming it was a good bet, but I think it’s clear Chiarelli paid 2.5M for a potential future starter rather than 2.5M for a backup, if you know what I mean. Many of the cheaper options don’t have that upside.

  11. Gerta Rauss says:

    Pescador: apologies if this has been covered already today,
    How close to the cap do the Oilers need to be in order to utilize (invoke?) said LTIR?
    thanks

    as close as humanly possible (without going over the cap*)

    the calculation is $5.5M subtract $(your cap space on the day you declare Sekera to LTIR) = $(your defined amount of LTIR bonus cushion)

    *there is a scenario of going over the cap prior to the season, but we’re in the last 36 hours or so of that scenario being available

  12. Lowetide says:

    Munny:
    LT said…

    What’s he building in there?

    Easily my favourite Tom Waits song.

    It’s fabulous.

  13. jm363561 says:

    jp: I’m not claiming it was a good bet, but I think it’s clear Chiarelli paid 2.5M for a potential future starter rather than 2.5M for a backup, if you know what I mean. Many of the cheaper options don’t have that upside.

    I agree with this line of thought. Cam’s performance last year, and his contract expiring next year, made this quite a shrewd move. It’s execution has been the problem, rather like the Reinhart fiasco. Koskinen has not yet convinced anyone he is a potential starter. Small overpays have pushed us right up against the cap.

    P.S. Really surprised at the low expectations for the VGKs. I expect them to do really well again – tied with the Jets for my alternate team to cheer for.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: apologies if this has been covered already today,
    How close to the cap do the Oilers need to be in order to utilize (invoke?) said LTIR?
    thanks

    In order to maximize the amount of LTIR cushion (the amount they can go over the $79.5M cap by), they want to be as close to the cap as possible on day 1 and then put Reggie on LTIR. The amount they can go over the inicial $79.5M cap by will be equal to Sekera’s $5.5M less the amount of cap space they had when he was placed on LTIR.

    Of course, using any LTIR cushion comes with risk – for example, not accruing any cap space as the season goes on vastly reducing the ability to make acquisitions later in the season and, of course, the performance bonus issue I’ve mentioned.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I’m not claiming it was a good bet, but I think it’s clear Chiarelli paid 2.5M for a potential future starter rather than 2.5M for a backup, if you know what I mean. Many of the cheaper options don’t have that upside.

    I believe Chiarelli paid $2.5M for a complete unknown – a player that, all summer long, I was of the opinion potentially didn’t even improve the back-up tending position.

    Here is hoping he is an NHL stud….

  16. Munny says:

    jm363561,

    If it is the system (+ good goalering, of course) then any team with the personnel to use the system, will be, by this time next year. We shall see if it is a flash in the pan. But hot damn, if they can play the same style of hockey again this year, they will be a fun team to watch.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    jm363561: I agree with this line of thought. Cam’s performance last year, and his contract expiring next year, made this quite a shrewd move. It’s execution has been the problem, rather like the Reinhart fiasco. Koskinen has not yet convinced anyone he is a potential starter. Small overpays have pushed us right up against the cap.

    P.S. Really surprised at the low expectations for the VGKs. I expect them to do really well again – tied with the Jets for my alternate team to cheer for.

    I don’t think it was shrewd at all – history of star KHL goalies coming over to the NHL indicate the chances of this 30 year old becoming an NHL starter are minute – There has been one in recent memory, a much younger than Koskinen, Bobrovsky.

  18. Pescador says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    OriginalPouzar,

    ah, makes sense. thank-you both

  19. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I believe Chiarelli paid $2.5M for a complete unknown – a player that, all summer long, I was of the opinion potentially didn’t even improve the back-up tending position.

    Here is hoping he is an NHL stud….

    For sure, it’s absolutely possible.

    Hopefully whatever scout(s) recommended him got it right.

  20. jp says:

    SwedishPoster: He always had more offensive skill than he was given credit for. I really felt he was underrated and should have gone higher. Didn’t want to hype him too much though since his dad is an old teammate of mine, when I first came up with the men’s team at 17 Isac’s dad was one of the vets and star players of the team. His dad was pretty skilled but saw defense as optional. Real strange skating style as well. Walked like Zeb Macahan.

    Anyway Lundeström is a very well rounded player. His mature game always pushed him up the ranks early and never gave him a chance to beat up on his peers. Got some Zetterberg to him. Unlikely to match him ofc but some similarities in style.

    His progression and numbers look uncannily like Landers, for whatever that’s worth.

    Also, can we find you on hockeydb or eliteprospects?

  21. JimmyV1965 says:

    Just looking at the western conference again, I won’t be totally shocked if five teams make it from the Pacific. The balance of power is starting to shift IMO.

  22. jm363561 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think it was shrewd at all – history of star KHL goalies coming over to the NHL indicate the chances of this 30 year old becoming an NHL starter are minute – There has been one in recent memory, a much younger than Koskinen, Bobrovsky.

    We agree then. The strategic thinking was good – get a potential starter. The execution was terrible – a goalie who does not seem to be a starter.

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    Given the impending cap crunch (which was known in May when Koskinen was signed), I was just fine with not spending cap resources on the back-up tending position – at the same time, I have more confidence in Montoya than most as well as in Talbot.

    I’m not one that thinks we needed a “1B” or someone to “push Talbot”. We just need to find a reliable back-up tender than can come play 20-25 games per year and give the team a chance to win.

    If we were going to spend the type of cap commitment that Chiarelli did for that 1B type player, the player should have come with an established history of success in the NHL – a Halak or even a Lehner.

    Even better, realize that we have a legit NHL back-up in Montoya, don’t commit an extra $1.5M to the position and see if some cheap options present themselves in the fall – as they have.

  24. ArmchairGM says:

    Abbeef:
    In regards to the conversation I was having with Wilde about Aberg.

    Aberg SCF%16/17 17/18(Nsh)17/18(Edm)46.15 43.2447.13

    HDCF% 46.9445.7448.68
    Avg SCF/60= 21.575

    Caggiula 50.68 47.15

    49.25 48.51
    Avg SCF/60= 24.215
    (for fun)
    McDavid 53.9952.48

    58.8255.08

    Kassian’s numbers were similar to Aberg and Caggiula.The numbers are very similar between these two.As all Aberg brings is a skill game he should bring more scoring chances these stats do not support him being anymore effective atproducing scoring chances than Caggiula.In fact his numbers are slightly lower than Caggiula’s.

    Last little bit I’m going to spend on Aberg as he is gone now until he gets sent down by Ana (probably when Perry and/or Kesler is healthy) and is reassigned to Bakersfield.

    Yes, but there’s chances and then there’s chance conversion: actual points.

    Player, 5v5 TOI/GP, P/60, most common linemates in order

    Aberg, 13:12, 1.99, Caggiula, Draisaitl, RNH
    Caggiula, 11:34, 1.16, Strome, Draisaitl, Maroon

    Looking at those numbers, it’s easy to see which guy gets a rich 2-year contract and which gets waived, right?

    For reference, here’s a list of Edmonton forwards by 5v5 P/60 last year:

    McDavid 3.17
    Rattie 2.49
    Draisaitl 2.29
    Aberg 1.99
    Nugent-Hopkins 1.96
    Cammalleri 1.80
    Maroon 1.76
    Strome 1.46
    Khaira 1.38
    Lucic 1.30
    Kassian 1.29
    Slepyshev 1.26
    Puljujarvi 1.25
    Letestu 1.16
    Caggiula 1.16

    That’s right, Caggiula was the FIFTEENTH best forward when measuring scoring rates. Ooooo, let’s sign him for $1.5M x 2 immediately!! Meanwhile, the guy who was 4th gets waived. Yup, makes perfect sense.

  25. Bling says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Good post.

    There’s no other way to slice it, Aberg put up good numbers at evens last season. We can argue about small sample sizes, but even including his numbers in Nashville put him ahead of Caggiula and firmly in 3rd line territory, production-wise.

    One of the problems last season was the team getting caved when McDavid was off the ice. There were many culprits, but a terrible 4th line was one of them. Yet here we are, bringing back 2/3 of that 4th line.

    In terms of versatility, we also know that Caggs suppressed basically everyone’s offence last year. I would be far more comfortable sliding an Aberg up due to injuries or bad performance than I am comfortable sliding Caggiula up.

    We are two years into the Caggiula experiment. Hopefully this year he can be an effective 4th liner.

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Yes, but there’s chances and then there’s chance conversion: actual points.

    Player, 5v5 TOI/GP, P/60, most common linemates in order

    Aberg, 13:12, 1.99, Caggiula, Draisaitl, RNH
    Caggiula, 11:34, 1.16, Strome, Draisaitl, Maroon

    Looking at those numbers, it’s easy to see which guy gets a rich 2-year contract and which gets waived, right?

    For reference, here’s a list of Edmonton forwards by 5v5 P/60 last year:

    McDavid3.17
    Rattie2.49
    Draisaitl2.29
    Aberg1.99
    Nugent-Hopkins1.96
    Cammalleri1.80
    Maroon1.76
    Strome1.46
    Khaira1.38
    Lucic1.30
    Kassian1.29
    Slepyshev1.26
    Puljujarvi1.25
    Letestu1.16
    Caggiula1.16

    That’s right, Caggiula was the FIFTEENTH best forward when measuring scoring rates. Ooooo, let’s sign him for $1.5M x 2 immediately!! Meanwhile, the guy who was 4th gets waived. Yup, makes perfect sense.

    To be fair for context, those scoring rates for Aberg are in a 200 minute sample size and are essentially based off of a three game heater outside of which he did not produce much at all.

  27. London Jon says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Given the impending cap crunch (which was known in May when Koskinen was signed), I was just fine with not spending cap resources on the back-up tending position – at the same time, I have more confidence in Montoya than most as well as in Talbot.

    I’m not one that thinks we needed a “1B” or someone to “push Talbot”. We just need to find a reliable back-up tender than can come play 20-25 games per year and give the team a chance to win.

    If we were going to spend the type of cap commitment that Chiarelli did for that 1B type player, the player should have come with an established history of success in the NHL – a Halak or even a Lehner.

    Even better, realize that we have a legit NHL back-up in Montoya, don’t commit an extra $1.5M to the position and see if some cheap options present themselves in the fall – as they have.

    I agree. Would have been perfectly happy with Montoya as the backup

  28. jp says:

    Bling:
    ArmchairGM,

    Good post.

    There’s no other way to slice it, Aberg put up good numbers at evens last season. We can argue about small sample sizes, but even including his numbers in Nashville put him ahead of Caggiula and firmly in 3rd line territory, production-wise.

    One of the problems last season was the team getting caved when McDavid was off the ice. There were many culprits, but a terrible 4th line was one of them. Yet here we are, bringing back 2/3 of that 4th line.

    In terms of versatility, we also know that Caggs suppressed basically everyone’s offence last year. I would be far more comfortable sliding an Aberg up due to injuries or bad performance than I am comfortable sliding Caggiula up.

    We are two years into the Caggiula experiment. Hopefully this year he can be an effective 4th liner.

    Aberg had a 1.04 P/60 in his Nashville career. Ugly possession, shot and scoring chance numbers too.

    Also, Caggiula inflates goals against more than offense (or he did in 17-18).

    On ice 17-18 GF/60 – 2.08 (8th of 14 Fs) GA/60 – 3.09 (12th of 14)
    On ice 16-17 GF/60 – 2.06 (5th of 12 Fs) GA/60 – 1.88 (2nd of 12)

    He was a positive GF player in 16-17. I’m not sure he is a bad 4th line option.

  29. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: To be fair for context, those scoring rates for Aberg are in a 200 minute sample size and are essentially based off of a three game heater outside of which he did not produce much at all.

    He scored 1.20 in NSH last year, a higher rate than Caggiula has ever posted.

    1.20 in 398:24 TOI in NSH + 1.99 in 211:12 TOI in EDM = 1.48 in 609:36

  30. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: To be fair for context, those scoring rates for Aberg are in a 200 minute sample size and are essentially based off of a three game heater outside of which he did not produce much at all.

    That’s what every 200 minute sample looks like. You score in some of the games.

    You can’t score fractions of a point. So, it goes without saying for non-elite producers that any 200 minute sample is going to feature a few games when they scored and a bunch when they didn’t.

  31. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: He scored 1.20 in NSH last year, a higher rate than Caggiula has ever posted.

    1.20 in 398:24 TOI in NSH + 1.99 in 211:12 TOI in EDM = 1.48 in 609:36

    This is correct. Caggiula posted 1.16 in 17-18 and 1.13 in 16-17, so Aberg was marginally better. In Nashville. Last year.

    Aberg in Nashville across the 2 years was 1.04/60 as I posted above.

    Aberg also ran a crazy PDO heater last year. He was 1052 in Nashville, the best on the team. He was only 1009 in Edmonton, but still best for 5th on the Oilers. 1037 overall (tied for 14th of 530 NHL players with 600 5×5 minutes).

    Overall he got outshot 286-315 (47.6%) but his team outscored 26-17. He looked a lot better than he was because of the PDO.

  32. Abbeef says:

    ArmchairGM: Yes, but there’s chances and then there’s chance conversion: actual points.

    Player, 5v5 TOI/GP, P/60, most common linemates in order

    Aberg, 13:12, 1.99, Caggiula, Draisaitl, RNH
    Caggiula, 11:34, 1.16, Strome, Draisaitl, Maroon

    Looking at those numbers, it’s easy to see which guy gets a rich 2-year contract and which gets waived, right?

    For reference, here’s a list of Edmonton forwards by 5v5 P/60 last year:

    McDavid3.17
    Rattie2.49
    Draisaitl2.29
    Aberg1.99
    Nugent-Hopkins1.96
    Cammalleri1.80
    Maroon1.76
    Strome1.46
    Khaira1.38
    Lucic1.30
    Kassian1.29
    Slepyshev1.26
    Puljujarvi1.25
    Letestu1.16
    Caggiula1.16

    That’s right, Caggiula was the FIFTEENTH best forward when measuring scoring rates. Ooooo, let’s sign him for $1.5M x 2 immediately!! Meanwhile, the guy who was 4th gets waived. Yup, makes perfect sense.

    I posted about scoring chances in regards to Wilde’s post about what he does when he’s not scoring. I’m sure I could find a 200 min or even 600 minute hot stretch in Caggiula’s career as well. You can’t discount 16/17 because it is convenient to the argument.

    I also disagree with those that want to forget about a tweener missing a practice when he was about to have a chance to play with McDavid. The guy is obviously either not very committed or incredibly stupid. I coach 13-16 year olds who are more mature than that. Rattie is showing us how a professional should approach a chance of a lifetime. Even if he fails he’ll know he gave everything he had.

  33. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: Aberg had a 1.04 P/60 in his Nashville career. Ugly possession, shot and scoring chance numbers too.

    Also, Caggiula inflates goals against more than offense (or he did in 17-18).

    On ice 17-18 GF/60 – 2.08 (8th of 14 Fs) GA/60 – 3.09 (12th of 14)
    On ice 16-17 GF/60 – 2.06 (5th of 12 Fs) GA/60 – 1.88 (2nd of 12)

    He was a positive GF player in 16-17. I’m not sure he is a bad 4th line option.

    I’m not sure where you got your numbers from, but Caggs was not the 8th best in GF/60 last year. Here are the actual numbers, via naturalstattrick (100 minute minimum):

    Caggiula

    On ice EDM GF/60 – 2.09 (10th of 18 Fs) GA/60 – 3.09 (15th of 18)

    Aberg

    On ice NSH GF/60 – 2.56 (7th of 17 Fs) GA/60 – 1.51 (2nd of 17)
    On ice EDM GF/60 – 2.56 (6th of 18 Fs) GA/60 – 1.99 (3rd of 18)

    He was a positive GF player on 2 teams in 17-18. I’m pretty sure he’s a better 4th line option.

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=F&loc=B&toi=100&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=82&lines=single

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=NSH&pos=F&loc=B&toi=100&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=82&lines=single

  34. ArmchairGM says:

    Abbeef: I’m sure I could find a… 600 minute hot stretch in Caggiula’s career as well.

    No, you can’t. lol

    Abbeef: You can’t discount 16/17 because it is convenient to the argument.

    I left out 16-17 because Aberg only played 178 minutes, it’s less than relevant. His 211 minutes as an Oiler is far more relevant: (a) different team, (b) different, more recent year.

  35. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: Yes, but there’s chances and then there’s chance conversion: actual points.

    Player, 5v5 TOI/GP, P/60, most common linemates in order

    Aberg, 13:12, 1.99, Caggiula, Draisaitl, RNH
    Caggiula, 11:34, 1.16, Strome, Draisaitl, Maroon

    Looking at those numbers, it’s easy to see which guy gets a rich 2-year contract and which gets waived, right?

    For reference, here’s a list of Edmonton forwards by 5v5 P/60 last year:

    McDavid3.17
    Rattie2.49
    Draisaitl2.29
    Aberg1.99
    Nugent-Hopkins1.96
    Cammalleri1.80
    Maroon1.76
    Strome1.46
    Khaira1.38
    Lucic1.30
    Kassian1.29
    Slepyshev1.26
    Puljujarvi1.25
    Letestu1.16
    Caggiula1.16

    That’s right, Caggiula was the FIFTEENTH best forward when measuring scoring rates. Ooooo, let’s sign him for $1.5M x 2 immediately!! Meanwhile, the guy who was 4th gets waived. Yup, makes perfect sense.

    Aberg’s P/60 was heavily inflated by small sample size and a heater he went on after he returned from team suspension. I think he got something like 5 pts in three games and did virtually nothing the rest of the season. Sometimes P/60 can be a very misleading stat.

  36. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: I’m not sure where you got your numbers from, but Caggs was not the 8th best in GF/60 last year. Here are the actual numbers, via naturalstattrick (100 minute minimum):

    Caggiula

    On ice EDM GF/60 – 2.09 (10th of 18 Fs) GA/60 – 3.09 (15th of 18)

    Aberg

    On ice NSH GF/60 – 2.56 (7th of 17 Fs) GA/60 – 1.51 (2nd of 17)
    On ice EDM GF/60 – 2.56 (6th of 18 Fs) GA/60 – 1.99 (3rd of 18)

    He was a positive GF player on 2 teams in 17-18. I’m pretty sure he’s a better 4th line option.

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=F&loc=B&toi=100&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=82&lines=single

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=NSH&pos=F&loc=B&toi=100&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=82&lines=single

    Same source. I mis-typed a couple of things – 2.09 vs 2.08 is indeed correct, and I used 200 minutes as the cutoff. He is actually 9th of 15 forwards in GF/60 with the 200 min cutoff.

    Re: Aberg, did you see the PDO? He was positive in goal differential last year, yes. He has been negative in basically everything else you can measure both years for both teams.

    Caggs is nothing special clearly. But there’s not much in Aberg’s numbers overall that look like he’s a useful NHLer. He may well end up being better than Caggiula, but EVERYTHING from his Nashville time except goals looks terrible.

  37. Wilde says:

    Abbeef:

    In regards to the conversation I was having with Wilde about Aberg.

    I’m having trouble reading this, but what you’re trying to say is that Aberg’s shot and chance shares were bad in Nashville and not markedly better than Caggiula or Kassian’s in Edmonton, yeah?

    (Also I’d recommend Score & Venue adjusting)

    To be clear, I’ve never been making a statistical argument about Aberg’s possession and chance metrics. In fact, I specifically am against evaluating a players’ NST scoring chances to evaluate their offensive contribution, all I take that for is shot location – leaving out the shooters’ skill and other details.

    I use them as a descriptive metric to show who’s shooting where, how often.

    In addition, NST’s current scoring chance map counts shots that are inside the home plate, but back of the dots and are actually below 6.5% shooting percentage threshold.

    One use of SCF/60 I like, is checking for weird ratios of CF/SCF – sometimes a hint towards point shot volume.

    I’m specifically speaking to the coaching staff’s attitude towards players who score who aren’t part of the main cast of characters, and philosophy like this ->

    Abbeef: As all Aberg brings is a skill game

    I reject the notion that any player should bring anything other than a skill game. This is the heart of the issue. A player is not incomplete if “all” they bring is a skill game. That’s all they need to bring. Every line should play the exact same way.

    When a philosophy brings you to cut a forward that can carry, distribute, and shoot the puck better than those that remain I believe this philosophy is flawed.

    I am against the idea that a “role player”, players that, as long as they check certain boxes, will willingly be put on the ice and not actually represent a reasonable threat to the opposing team when the puck comes to them.

    I sort of knew this was going to turn into an argument about evaluating Aberg, but it’s really more about the verbal around the team in regards to teambuilding.

  38. Wilde says:

    Abbeef: The guy is obviously either not very committed or incredibly stupid. I coach 13-16 year olds who are more mature than that.

    That’s a conclusion you can only come to by filling in the massive gaps in the little information we have with your own personal biases.

    This is a notion best said speculatively if you want to remain even close to reasonable. This is not something that’s ‘obvious’ at all.

    We’re miles apart on this and it’s a minute caveat to my overarching argument, so I’ll leave the discussion with what I’ve left above.

  39. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: To be fair for context, those scoring rates for Aberg are in a 200 minute sample size and are essentially based off of a three game heater outside of which he did not produce much at all.

    Interesting to look at those three games – the line was Caggiula – Draisaitl – Aberg.

    March 20
    Aberg: 1-2-3 +2, 1 shot “Very involved, good plays with puck” – LT
    Draisaitl: 1-3-4 +4, 4 shots “An absolutely dominant game”
    Caggiula: 1-0-1 +3, 1 shot “Seeing the ice better lately”

    March 22
    Aberg: 0-2-2 +1, 4 shots “Brings skill to his line”
    Draisaitl: 0-0-0 +1, 0 shots “Had some big chances”
    Caggiula: 2-0-2 +1, 3 shots “On a scoring streak”

    March 24
    Aberg: 1-0-1 e, 2 shots “Pontus rising!”
    Draisaitl: 0-0-0 e, 1 shot “Quiet game, 3GV”
    Caggiula: 0-0-0 e, 0 shots “His line was a GV machine”

    Then the 25th game: “Caggiula-Draisaitl-Aberg were 9-9 in 14:21, 0-1 in GF. Caggiula was hurt and Khaira stepped in for a time, that’s when the goal was scored. Something to ponder. Went 9-5 against Rakell-Getzlaf-Perry, 1-1 GF. I think you’d take that deal 10 times out of 10, counting on the McDavid trio to outscore their assignment. I like Aberg, don’t know where he lands but suspect he is here in the fall.”

    I’m not saying Aberg is a superstar, but I stand by my assertion that he’s a better player than Caggiula today. It could be argued that they are close, but I don’t think any reasonable person could say Caggiula is worth $3M and Aberg is worthless.

  40. Bank Shot says:

    Wilde:
    I reject the notion that any player should bring anything other than a skill game. This is the heart of the issue. A player is not incomplete if “all” they bring is a skill game. That’s all they need to bring. Every line should play the exact same way.

    When a philosophy brings you to cut a forward that can carry, distribute, and shoot the puck better than those that remain I believe this philosophy is flawed.

    When you mention skills you only mention skills with the puck.

    Winning board battles is a skill.
    Positioning is a skill.
    Shot blocking is a skill.

    The idea that the only thing that matters is puck skills is also flawed thinking.

    Ryan Smith is a great example of a guy that wasn’t “highly skilled” but was amazingly effective.

    In theory I agree that all lines should play the same way. In practice it might play out a little differently.

    A guy like McDavid should be given the greenlight to attempt controlled zone entries on every attempt because he’s capable of beating NHL defenders most of the time.

    A guy like Rieder should be playing it safer. If he tries to beat guys one on one every time its going to result in loads of turnovers.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: He scored 1.20 in NSH last year, a higher rate than Caggiula has ever posted.

    1.20 in 398:24 TOI in NSH + 1.99 in 211:12 TOI in EDM = 1.48 in 609:36

    I wasn’t defending Caggulia vis-a-vis Aberg, was simply putting some context in to Aberg’s numbers. My post had nothing to do with Caggulia or the choice of Aberg over Caggulia.

  42. Abbeef says:

    Wilde: That’s a conclusion you can only come to by filling in the massive gaps in the little information we have with your own personal biases.

    This is a notion best said speculatively if you want to remain even close to reasonable. This is not something that’s ‘obvious’ at all.

    We’re miles apart on this and it’s a minute caveat to my overarching argument, so I’ll leave the discussion with what I’ve left above.

    You are right that I shouldn’t have said obviously, though I think attitude and work ethic are huge indicators of future success. I don’t know the exact situation but it was made quite clear by the coaches that they were not impressed with his decision. I made a leap, but it was a logical leap at least in the moment being discussed.

    As for all players (lines) playing the same style I don’t agree with that. In a perfect world you could throw out 12 McDavid’s and go for it but I don’t believe that is realistic. Players should be in situations to play to their strengths in my opinion. You want players who are skilled at penalty killing, defending, winning faceoffs, battling on the boards and in front of the nets, playing a physical game, passing, shooting, and carrying the puck. There are very few players who are world class in all of these things.

    I think the idea of everyone playing the same style could work for an Olympic team or All-Star team but I am skeptical of the success it would have with a regular NHL team.

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