Farm Workers 2018-19 (Condors edition)

Happy Thanksgiving! It’s holiday Monday morning, the house is quiet, everyone sleeping except for the dog and a rabbit in the backyard. We went for a walk last night (a little breezy, but I love the fall) and between rabbits and partridges I think St. Albert might be turning into some kind of petting zoo.

We are well. My two jobs (TSN and The Athletic) are going well and I’m thrilled to be working with such quality people at this point in my career. I began my radio career June 15, 1980 and that’s coming up on 40 years ago now. My writing career began right here really, about 2004, when my daughter asked me if she could start a blog and I said no without knowing what a blog was or what it meant. As you can see, I’m a visionary.

Mrs. Lowetide made turkey last night, she’s been either helping or making Thanksgiving turkey since she was 10—meaning over 20 years now! The kids are finding their way, young people today don’t have career paths the way we did when I was young, it’s been an adjustment for Dad finding out that business owners are less likely to commit long term compared to 1980. Both kids are receiving an education in various things and I believe are getting closer to their life’s work.

Ziggy’s work in life is to bite my socks, even when I’m in them, and to hide bones in spots I’ll trip on. Honestly, I love this blasted dog so much the kids tease me about her being the favourite child, but there’s simply no way they could know. I kid. Love them both to pieces.

I hope you are well, and in a good place with people you love. I know it’s been tough for many people this year, all I can offer you is a lifetime of country songs that suggest we make it through December, and we will together. Sometimes being away from family this time of year can be painful, hope you’re in a good place anyway even if it isn’t where you’ll be in a year. God bless you, be good to yourself, let’s hope for a finer day down the line.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Special offer is here, less than $3 a month!

  • New Lowetide: Evan Bouchard survives first game.
  • New Lowetide: Ryan McLeod takes demotion in stride, while a Condo of Condors impress on opening weekend.
  • Jonathan Willis: On AHL opening night, Caleb Jones and friends make it clear they want NHL jobs.
  • Lowetide: Orange, white and blue October: In 1979, the Oilers rocked the NHL.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: After the death of his father, Sweden trip holds special significance for Adam Larsson, and one of his opponents.
  • Scott Wheeler: How the eye test fails to properly evaluate Evan Bouchard.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why the Nuge-McDavid-Rattie line has been so successful.
  • Lowetide: The 2018-19 Oilers are in a period of transition.
  • Jonathan Willis: How worried should the Oilers be about the preseason struggles of Milan Lucic and Leon Draisaitl?

FARM WORKERS

I was going to run this over at The Athletic, but it’s simply too meandering to make sense of as an article. About 50 years ago, Brian Conacher, a hockey player, wrote a book called The Way it Is. It was a book for the ages, examining an AHL team in a unique way (don’t think it’s ever been repeated). Here is a passage from the book:

  • As in other areas of modern society, hockeys teams too have their generation gaps. This situation stood out on the Rochester team in 1965 which consisted of three groups: the veterans (had all resigned themselves to making the best of their minor league hockey careers), the young ones (who have stars in their eyes and are in the AHL for just a little time, or so they think) and the group somewhere in between (these players kept hoping that a break would come their way and they might get their chance in the “big tent”).

I have taken those three areas and asked questions over about a decade to arrive at 10 different conclusions. Here they are, applied to the current Bakersfield Condors.

  1. Men who are over 30 and come out of the minors to establish (or re-establish) themselves are pretty much a thing of the past. Al Montoya is 33, he could in fact return to the NHL after spending time in the minors. He didn’t play well for Edmonton and was poor in Montreal a year ago but he is certainly good and famous enough to have another life. That is an unusual result of this question in the time I’ve been examining the OKC Barons and Condors. Montoya is an outlier.
  2. If a prospect can establish himself as an AHL regular age 20, it bodes well for an NHL career but does not guarantee it. Tyler Benson is the only man who is 20 this fall, and he has an excellent chance to be an AHL regular. Since 2010, Oilers’ prospects who played as regulars age 20 in the AHL: Teemu Hartikainen, Tyler Pitlick, Magnus Paajarvi, Martin Marincin, Martin Gernat, Bogdan Yakimov, Jujhar Khaira, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones. I count four successes, three misses and two hopefuls (Bear and Jones). The three misses (Hartikainen, Gernat, Yakimov) were all European, not certain that speaks to their failure or the organization. The best AHL at 20 Oilers (Satan, Smyth) were a cut above these names but I think Bear and Jones are interesting prospects on the horizon.
  3. Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past (say) 21 has some issues and is going to do some meandering. The 2018-19 Condors have several impressive prospects age 21, including Bear and Jones. William Lagesson is 22, he’s just starting his NA career, that’s another quality prospect at this level. It’s fair to say each man has areas to work on but this is a stronger group in this age bracket than most Oilers’ farm teams of recent years. A quick note: Ryan Mantha’s career path encountered a major injury but he was on track at the time it occurred. Hopefully he finds a way to resume his career.
  4. If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect of interest by 22 you are in troubleThe players who have graduated to useful NHL careers have at least played some NHL games by the end of their entry level deals. Even a player like Jujhar Khaira or Ty Rattie played some NHL games during entry deals. Caleb Jones, who is 21, is a player to watch in this area (Ethan Bear has already played in NHL games).
  5. Exceptions are college menPlaying 4 NCAA seasons means turning pro at 22, meaning a “late start” for some quality prospects. There is much to discuss among the college men. I’ll begin by saying Cooper Marody is NHL-ready based on things we observed in preseason and are seeing in the AHL now. Although he did spend three years in college, he probably should have signed age 20 because his ability suggests it (NHLE: 38.54). Other college men who we can discuss are Patrick Russell (he is a PK savant with size), Joe Gambardella and Tyler Vesel. If you’re reading this 30 years from now and asking “why were these three even mentioned?” it’s because they bring specific skills to the rink. Gambardella can forecheck like a demon, Russell scores PK goals like ringing a bell, and Vesel appears to be a player with a range of skills. The Oilers are far more aggressive under Peter Chiarelli in this area and my bet is we see some NHL players come out of this pipeline.
  6. A large group of players on the current team could be described in the “tweener” division. This is always the case, although Ty Rattie qualifies and might break out and have a career. Pick an era and I can find you a tweener, the current Condors boast Josh Currie and Keegan Lowe. That’s progress actually, past seasons have featured a greater number in this category. Anton Lander was a tweener, although some people get angry when I say it.
  7. If we make a list of the minor league RFA’s each summer, we can probably as a group pick the cuts and be fairly close. Oilers have very few RFA’s for 2019 summer, but will have to make decisions on Tyler Vesel, Joe Gambardella, Patrick Russell, Colin Larkin and Shane Starrett. It’s a porridge group, from here I’d suggest Larkin and Starrett are probably on the outside through skill set or circumstance (lotta goalies).
  8. Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera became productive players in the toughest league on the planet. THEY are the stars in this study. It’s the key point to make in every one of these looks. Miro Satan in the minors was an anomaly, NHL teams pluck scoring stars from junior ranks and take them straightaway to the show. I think Cooper Marody may spend fewer than 40 games in the AHL, he is so skilled. Tyler Benson may be in the NHL for a time this winter, and I think Caleb Jones will see his first action in the show this winter as well. The Oilers want their farm hands to grind out their imperfections out of their game, and to emerge as trustworthy soldiers. That’s the goal.
  9. Pure offensive players can succeed after prolonged AHL time but it’s rarely with their drafting team. Mike Walton was the original inspiration for this point, but Martin St. Louis, Jonathan Marchessault and others have proven to be worthy despite needing two or even three opportunities before cashing. Bakersfield doesn’t have any of these player types now that Rattie is in the NHL, you could include Cooper Marody here but Philadelphia apparently tried to sign him so that would be unfair.
  10. The future NHL players on tonight’s roster are: I am convinced Cooper Marody will have an NHL career if he can stay healthy, his ability with the puck is exceptional. Tyler Benson is also a solid possibility, and there are two more reasonable bets (Caleb Jones, William Lagesson). If Ethan Bear spends time in Bakersfield, I would add him to this list.

JAY WOODCROFT

The power play looked damned good in the first game of the season, in fact I’ve never seen the Condors look better. Game 2 of the season was a loss, rookie goalie Dylan Wells giving up five goals for the loss.

Gerry Fleming’s time in Bakersfield featured no playoffs but the prospect pipeline delivered several worthy prospects to the show (Jesse Puljujarvi, Jujhar Khaira, Jordan Oesterle, others), difficult to give credit for Pulju but it is part of his record.

I think Woodcroft has a better team overall, and more actual prospects than Fleming. That’s a guess, perhaps Marody and Benson disappoint and we’re back to doh! before you know it. Fleming’s players seemed to arrive in the NHL with an idea about what to do and when to do it, difficult to know how much credit to give the coach.

Finally, a note about how many prospects will make it. If I tell you Marody, Benson, Jones and Lagesson look promising, it’s a good idea to assume two of those names won’t play 100 games in the NHL, one will play a little more than 100 games, and one will “make it” as a legit NHL player. That isn’t a reflection of the individual players, merely history giving us an idea about expectations.

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166 Responses to "Farm Workers 2018-19 (Condors edition)"

  1. dustrock says:

    Happy Thanksgiving. Thankful as always for this blog, first thing in the morning with the first cup of coffee on the weekends, first thing in the morning at work with the second cup of coffee during the week.

    Last winter I had a real tough time, my mother has SAD and wonder if it’s hitting me now. Looking outside at the winter scene didn’t exactly fill me with you but I’m thankful to be living in a city that seems to be a great place to raise my daughter.

    A better Oilers team would go a long way to make the winter bearable so COME ON YOU OILERS.

    Safe driving today for everyone if like me you have to go visit Baba in Vegreville

  2. digger50 says:

    It has definitely been a tough, tough year.

    I do hope for better days down the line.

    Thank you

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Happy Thanksgiving to you too LT and I’m super happy to hear that everything is going well for you personally and professionally.

    This blog is one of the many things that I am thankful for in life – I truly learned about gratitude in the late summer, fall end early winter of 2012 and thank goodness I did or else I probably wouldn’t be alive right now and, even if I was, I certainly wouldn’t have my amazing wife and solid career.

    Health and happiness for all!

  4. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    I really do hope that first oilers game was just a glitch in the system, man that was such a terrible game. McDavid might have his work cut out for him trying to get the art ross again seeing how teams are scoring like right now. Matthews (spits) already at 8 points…

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    In the off-season of 2017, Al Montoya was near the top of wish list for back-up tenders. Of course there has been some inconsistency in his game over the year, he is, after all, a back-up goaltender, however, he is a proven and established solid back-up tender capable of playing 20-25 games per year and generally giving the team a chance to win (with the ability to steal the odd game).

    He was poor last year but he was coming off a concussion and, from accounts, attempted to come back too early when he wasn’t at full health.

    I think I was in the minority but I was comfortable with Montoya being the back-up this season.

    I love the fact that we have him for depth – I’m hoping that Koskinen is a plus back-up but, even if he is, Montoya is great injury cover.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    I watched all of Bakersfield’s first game and the first half of the second and its already clear that Benson is a solid AHL player. Although he’s made one bad giveaway in each game (a really atrocious one on the PP on his first or second shift of the season), he’s made numerous plus plays with the puck and is responsible all over the ice, generally on the right side of the puck.

    I hope he gets zero NHL games this year (as well as Marody) – that would mean injuries aren’t piling up too much at the NHL level and he’s allowed to take the year and then come and truly compete for a job next fall.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Through two AHL games this season, Caleb Jones has shown to be the best player on the team. He is paying with high confidence moving the puck quickly and efficiently with consistency – he is skating miles, jumping in to the player, defending well, etc.

    I have been super impressed with his work through two games.

  8. deardylan says:

    Have you seen this new rookie in Western Division. His first NHL shift is already giving me nightmares before Halloween. Watching this was frightening.

    https://twitter.com/MarcPDumont/status/1048206016549150722

    Oilers D gonna feel like McDavid black mirror coming down the wing.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its great that we have 5 “real prospects” on the Bakersfield roster (including Bear). Yamamoto could be added to this at some point and, next year, there will be another influx with the likes of Krill Maksimov, Ostaf Safin, Dimitri Samrukov, Filip Berglund, Joel Persson (maybe), Ryan McLeod (maybe), Even Bouchard (maybe).

  10. Psyche says:

    Happy Thanksgiving to all!

    LT, thanks for sharing about your family.

    I made the turkey for my family yesterday. My folks were able to join us. They loved watching their granddaughter stuff pumpkin pie into her mouth.

    This year saw us move to a rural Saskatchewan community. We love it here. Most of our neighbours are retired farmers. Great people. If the opportunity arises, I recommend rural living to anyone with kids. It’s a terrific environment to raise them in.

    Big CFL game today! Riders vs Eskimos. One is hot and the other is not. In the CFL luck and momentum can turn on a dime. It will be interesting to see.

    I’m trying not to think about the Oilers today. They’ve left me pretty frustrated. And today I want to be happy!

    All the best to everyone who frequents this wonderful blog.

  11. Psyche says:

    I know we have heard J. Faulk rumours for awhile now. Last night he played 21:11 (2nd on team) in 28 shifts (team high), recorded 2 assists and was plus 3. Carolina won 8-5 and is 1st in their division (I know it’s early). I can’t see the Hurricanes wanting to trade him in the immediate future. If they are looking to, his value is going up.

  12. fishman says:

    Psyche:
    I know we have heard J. Faulk rumours for awhile now. Last night he played 21:11 (2nd on team) in 28 shifts (team high), recorded 2 assists and was plus 3. Carolina won 8-5 and is 1st in their division (I know it’s early). I can’t see the Hurricanes wanting to trade him in the immediate future. If they are looking to, his value is going up.

    Personally I don’t think we see any immediate changes. This group of players, coach’s and GM will be given 15-20 games to show what they are made of. If they go down the black hole in first quarter of the season all bets are off and various heads will role. I really hope this doesn’t happen as it will mean another lost season in a market that won’t have much patience for more “rebuilding”!!!!

  13. leadfarmer says:

    Yesterday WOODGUY said
    Its interesting that you brought up NSH.

    They ran 3F2D forever and their results were meh, even with all the talent they had.

    Then last year they were pretty decent ranking 10th in 5v4 GF/60.

    What changed?

    Their set up is the 1-3-1 now that most teams use 4F1D to populate, whereas before their set up was more of 3-2.

    Subban is on the blue line and Josi has moved down to the “opposite Ovi spot” just at the top of right circle.

    They also changed out Neal for Smith, who is RH.

    So by using NSH as an example you help prove my point.

    Thank you.

    You conveniently used last year why. Well cause Ellis was gone. What did you do with Ellis this year Woodguy? Did you bump him off the pp cause hes on the PP with Josi and PK

  14. leadfarmer says:

    They ran 3v2 forever says woodguy.
    Yeah they also ran overshooting from the point forever too. 2015-16 Weber accounted for almost 30% of their pp goals. Only one forward had more than 8% of the pp goals.
    The following year the guy tied for most PP goals was Mike Fisher !!!. They substituted guys like Ribiero Fisher who were on their last leg for highly skilled guys like Fiala. In fact only 3 forwards (Arvidson, Johansen, Forsberg) that were regular pp guys in 2016-17 (100 min or more) returned to be regulars last year (and Ellis was injured most of the year so there was room)

    So Woodguy just took a team that was improving their offensive core and just said see I’m right because their pp is improving when the team actually just improved their personnel.

    And to make things better. Ekholm was a regular fixture on their pp last year (150 min). So he didnt even do his homework

  15. who says:

    Psyche:
    I know we have heard J. Faulk rumours for awhile now. Last night he played 21:11 (2nd on team) in 28 shifts (team high), recorded 2 assists and was plus 3. Carolina won 8-5 and is 1st in their division (I know it’s early). I can’t see the Hurricanes wanting to trade him in the immediate future. If they are looking to, his value is going up.

    I’m pretty lukewarm on acquiring Justin Faulk.
    He probably won’t hurt you but I wouldn’t want to give up many assets. I could see something like Benning and a prospect/pick. I think Benning may be replaced by Bouchard and/or Bear by this time next year anyway.
    The thing is what are you really upgrading with Faulk? Seems like a powerplay specialist who may need to be sheltered 5 on 5. We probably already have that player type in Bouchard and Bear.
    The only way a deal makes sense is if you see him as an upgrade over Benning at 2RD.
    We should probably give it at least 10 games before you make that call.

  16. Munny says:

    Thank you for this blog, LT. It’s a marvel.

    And thank you too to any First Nations people reading, passing by. This day is really about you and what your ancestors did for the early Euro settlers. This land wouldn’t be the same without you.

  17. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer,

    You conveniently used last year why.

    You brought up NSH.

    I looked at their set up and deployment and saw they ran a 1-3-1 last year and the first unit had 2 Dmen, but Josi’s spot was more of a RW spot on the top of the right circle with PK on the blue line.

    I then looked at the previous year and saw they had the more traditional deployment of Dmen with on on each point.

    Their results last year were far superior to 16/17.


    Well cause Ellis was gone. What did you do with Ellis this year Woodguy? Did you bump him off the pp cause hes on the PP with Josi and PK

    I looked at the game sheets and looked at “who plays with who” at 5v4 for NSH.

    Here is how Laviolette is deploying his 2 untis so far this year: (all 3:40 of it)

    PP1
    Smith, Forsberg, Johanssen, Ardvidsson, Subban.

    Looks like Arvidsson took Josi’s spot.

    PP2
    Turris, Bonino, Fiala, Josi, Ellis.

    Looks like Ellis is on PP2. He’s never been on PP1 in his career in NSH btw.

    Its interesting that they switched out Josi for Arvidsson on PP1.

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer,

    So Woodguy just took a team that was improving their offensive core and just said see I’m right because their pp is improving when the team actually just improved their personnel.

    And to make things better. Ekholm was a regular fixture on their pp last year (150 min). So he didnt even do his homework

    I looked at NSH’s PP1 unit of Johanssen, Subban, Josi, Smith and Forsberg because you mentioned the Dmen they used on the PP.

    I looked at video and shot locations and saw their set up where Josi was more of RW spot than D spot. They ran a 1-3-1 on PP1.

    As for Ekholm, he was on PP2 most of the time.

    Here’s his most common line mates 5v4 last year:
    With TOI With
    Kevin Fiala 102.0
    Colton Sissons 93.9
    Kyle Turris 64.7
    Craig Smith 60.1

    Also,

    NSH’s PP in 15/16 scored 6.66 GF/60. A decent rate, it was good.

    You’re right. Shea Weber scored a lot.

    It was his best season in his career in terms of scoring PP goals:

    Shea Weber 5v4 G/60
    Season Goals/60
    20072008 1.53
    20082009 1.44
    20092010 0.94
    20102011 1.05
    20112012 1.81
    20122013 1.06
    20132014 2.82
    20142015 1.07
    20152016 3.43
    20162017 2.49
    20172018 1.34

    I’m not sure what your point is though.

    Are you saying that 3F2D will come back into vogue due to more skillful Dmen coming into the league?

    Maybe, but think that forwards are better equipped skill-set wise for the PP with a few obvious exceptions.

    Something like 29/31 teams run a 1-3-1 powerplay.

    You can populate your 1-3-1 with 2 Dmen if you want.

    Most coaches don’t populate their 1-3-1 with 2 Dmen as forwards tend to be better at PP skills like passing and shot selection.

    Its not a hard and fast rule though.

    FLA just took Eklad off of their PP1 and are running 5 forwards.

    Their PP1 unit is: Huberdeau, Trocheck, Dadnov, Hoffman and Barkov.

    Its a 1-3-1 and I think Barkov is playing the D position.

    Eakins ran a 5F powerplay and they scored at a ridiculous rate over ~5 games.

    Then Yak broke his stick which resulted in a Toews breakaway goal and he never went back to it.

    I’ll be following what FLA does with interest.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    RNH is not on the ice today.

    Hopefully this is minor – I’ve got a feeling he’s likely under the weather

    Caggiula-McDavid-Rattie
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
    Rieder-Strome-Puljujarvi
    Khaira-Brodziak-Kassian
    Chiasson

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning
    Russell-Bouchard
    Garrison

    Talbot
    Koskinen

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its interesting to note that the lines and pairings are exactly the same as game 1 (save for Caggulia in Nuge’s spot and Rieder and Khaira being switch).

    Lots what some line/pairing changes and, of course, we all have opinions on how we think the lines should be deployed, however, at the same time, there is much to say for consistency and giving the lines not just a game or two games or even a week or two but a real chance to form chemistry – it is what the majority of the fanbase has been asking for.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’d like to see Jesse and Yamamoto switched and even Chiasson in for Kassian but, at the same time, I can’t crave consistency in deployment and then want changes after one game.

  21. Professor Q says:

    deardylan:
    Have you seen this new rookie in Western Division. His first NHL shift is already giving me nightmares before Halloween. Watching this was frightening.

    https://twitter.com/MarcPDumont/status/1048206016549150722

    Oilers D gonna feel like McDavid black mirror coming down the wing.

    Pettersson isn’t too bad, either. Lots of talented rookies in the past few years.

  22. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chris Johnston
    ‏Verified account @reporterchris
    36m36 minutes ago

    Pontus Aberg (ANA) cleared waivers. No one new placed on the wire today.

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Chris Johnston
    ‏Verified account @reporterchris
    36m36 minutes ago

    Pontus Aberg (ANA) cleared waivers. No one new placed on the wire today.

    Blah – don’t see any harm in picking this player up – his league minimum salary (and cap hit) is fully buryable in the AHL where he should be able to help the offence and he’s a player with some NHL acumen that would provide extra depth – a call-up option ahead of Brad Malone and Patrick Russell (provident an extra player of shelter to allow first year pros like Benson and Marody to not be called up and rushed to the NHL).

    Oh well.

  24. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    “PP2
    Turris, Bonino, Fiala, Josi, Ellis.”

    This looks as good as most teams PP1.

    Also, their PP1 is 5 RH players. hmmmmm

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    “PP2
    Turris, Bonino, Fiala, Josi, Ellis.”

    This looks as good as most teams PP1.

    Also, their PP1 is 5 RH players.hmmmmm

    It is.

    Awesome.

    I’m going to watch some video and see if Johanssen is setting up on the left half wall to give everyone a one timer.

  26. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy v2.0: FLA just took Eklad off of their PP1 and are running 5 forwards.

    Everything you say is truth, except Yandle has been the Dman on their 1st unit.

    I too am watching the Panthers with interest.
    I think they have the horses to contend in the east.

  27. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Everything you say is truth, except Yandle has been the Dman on their 1st unit.

    I too am watching the Panthers with interest.
    I think they have the horses to contend in the east.

    You’re right.

    Last year if we use Huberdeau (82gp, PP1 player) as the proxy we see:

    Yandle 224min w/ Huberdeau
    Ekblad 65min 2/ Huberdeau

    This year, we’re both kinda wrong. 🙂

    The only Dman to spend over a minute so far this on PP1 was MacDonald with 1:19 (using Hoffman as the proxy for PP1)

    Yandle 0:31
    Ekblad 0:07

    They went to 5F quickly.

    Thanks for the correction.

  28. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    a

    Woodguy v2.0: It is.

    Awesome.

    I’m going to watch some video and see if Johanssen is setting up on the left half wall to give everyone a one timer.

    Yup.

    Johanssen is setting up on the left half wall: https://imageshack.com/a/img923/2844/CFQDWv.png

  29. russ99 says:

    Psyche:
    I know we have heard J. Faulk rumours for awhile now. Last night he played 21:11 (2nd on team) in 28 shifts (team high), recorded 2 assists and was plus 3. Carolina won 8-5 and is 1st in their division (I know it’s early). I can’t see the Hurricanes wanting to trade him in the immediate future. If they are looking to, his value is going up.

    Faulk’s NMC kicked in this summer. With things going as they are, that would be a hard sell to get him to waive it.

  30. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    a

    Yup.

    Johanssen is setting up on the left half wall: https://imageshack.com/a/img923/2844/CFQDWv.png

    So are you suggesting Connor should be opposite of where he sets up now? or same side?

    just trying to wrap my head around the 5R vs 5L?

  31. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: So are you suggesting Connor should be opposite of where he sets up now? or same side?

    just trying to wrap my head around the 5R vs 5L?

    It seems with what NSH is going with is the same as EDM running Connor on the right half wall.

    It got turned around (cue LT) on what to expect from NSH.

    I would have expected Johanssen on the right half wall, not the left.

    Will watch some more to see if its their default, but it looked like it.

    All things being equal I’d prefer McDavid on the left half wall as a default given the 4 left shooters.

  32. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: (cue LT)

    If you were on the correct side of the turkey discussion, LT would be there! But NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

  33. innercitysmytty says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I didn’t catch the whole game on Saturday (thankfully) but there was one PP where Connor ended up in the bumper for a short stretch with RNH running the PP from the left half wall. Not sure if that was by design, but I wouldn’t mind seeing that look either at some point.

  34. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I looked at their set up and deployment and saw they ran a 1-3-1 last year and the first unit had 2 Dmen, but Josi’s spot was more of a RW spot on the top of the right circle with PK on the blue line.

    Just double checked on Josi played way more on PP2 than PP1.

    PP1 for NSH last year was the same line up as this year.

    5 RHS

    Johanssen, Subban, Arvidsson, Forsberg, Smith.

    I’ll ask Tyler if they usually set up with Johanssen on the left wall.

  35. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    innercitysmytty:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I didn’t catch the whole game on Saturday (thankfully) but there was one PP where Connor ended up in the bumper for a short stretch with RNH running the PP from the left half wall. Not sure if that was by design, but I wouldn’t mind seeing that look either at some point.

    I think EDM PP1 is best if 97 is free lancing to open shooting and passing lanes so if he ends up in the bumper from time to time with 29 or 93 running it off the wall that’s probably good.

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: If you were on the correct side of the turkey discussion, LT would be there! But NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

    Like a Pavlovian dog.

    Also,

    Turkey is ok if its all dark meat, especially drumsticks.

  37. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Taking Ekblad off the pp is not a difficult decision though. He is a shot first and only D. His microstats are not very good in anything ozone related. You are probably better off putting Matheson there

    Whatever pp formation we choose having two players within one stride of the blue line will not lead to success. We have found the easiest way to turn a 5v4 into a 4v4 plus spectator

  38. innercitysmytty says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Yeah I would do that as well. I just found it interesting because I’m not sure I’ve seen him end up there often if at all.

    That 5F experiment with Eakins was innovative and I thought worked well. It’s too bad he didn’t stick with that because I think it would have been productive enough to live with the SH goals going the other way.

  39. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Shared a wonderful evening and meal with close friends at the farm, dining on our own produce and goose. To say delicious doesn’t do the wife’s meal justice. Enjoyed what looks to be the final fire of the year, just as the snow started to fall in earnest. A few libations and hearty laughter was shared by all.

    Thank you Mr. Mitchell for continually offering a balanced view point that takes a stand without being unfair and of course for creating a community where great minds (and others such as myself) can convene and grow more knowledgeable.

    GO OIL

  40. Lowetide says:

    For the Athletic: Evan Bouchard survives his first NHL game without a major negative event

    https://theathletic.com/576358/2018/10/08/lowetide-evan-bouchard-survives-first-nhl-game-without-a-major-negative-event/

  41. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its interesting to note that the lines and pairings are exactly the same as game 1 (save for Caggulia in Nuge’s spot and Rieder and Khaira being switch).

    Lots what some line/pairing changes and, of course, we all have opinions on how we think the lines should be deployed, however, at the same time, there is much to say for consistency and giving the lines not just a game or two games or even a week or two but a real chance to form chemistry – it is what the majority of the fanbase has been asking for.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’d like to see Jesse and Yamamoto switched and even Chiasson in for Kassian but, at the same time, I can’t crave consistency in deployment and then want changes after one game.

    Drai and Lucic had better part of a season didn’t work so McLellen waved a magic wand and this will work! So far not so much!

  42. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I looked at their set up and deployment and saw they ran a 1-3-1 last year and the first unit had 2 Dmen, but Josi’s spot was more of a RW spot on the top of the right circle with PK on the blue line.

    Just double checked on Josi played way more on PP2 than PP1.

    PP1 for NSH last year was the same line up as this year.

    5 RHS

    Johanssen, Subban, Arvidsson, Forsberg, Smith.

    I’ll ask Tyler if they usually set up with Johanssen on the left wall.

    Yes, NSH ran PP1 off the left half wall with 5 RHS and did ok last year.

    Here’s Tyler’s shot map from NSH PP1:

    https://imageshack.com/a/img922/6550/82xaOV.jpg

    You see all of Johanssen’s shots being from the left wall so its reasonable to assume that is where he sets up shop.

  43. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Taking Ekblad off the pp is not a difficult decision though.He is a shot first and only D.His microstats are not very good in anything ozone related.You are probably better off putting Matheson there

    Whatever pp formation we choose having two players within one stride of the blue line will not lead to success.We have found the easiest way to turn a 5v4 into a 4v4 plus spectator

    Now I’m really confused because it you were arguing for 3F2D in the last thread which makes me assume that both Dmen are playing the point

  44. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Chris Johnston
    ‏Verified account @reporterchris
    36m36 minutes ago

    Pontus Aberg (ANA) cleared waivers. No one new placed on the wire today.

    It’s interesting that Chiarelli throws forth round draft picks around like loose change for backup goalies or tweeners like Aberg,

    I was alone on an island in the thread that we traded for Aberg in suggesting that I would rather use the pick.

    This was such an awesome thread because I got absolutely raked over the coals for my opinion… and I was right. https://lowetide.ca/2018/02/25/g62-2017-18-oilers-at-ducks/comment-page-1/

    I don’t know the first thing about Aberg, but I would rather have the 4rth round pick.I think there’s a high cost to be paid by trying to speed up development by trading for suspects.
    The Maroon trade was dangerous because it lends itself to this false premise that there’s all of these top six players available for nothing.
    More often than not, you’re more likely to get a bust, a tweener, or a forth liner with this strategy.
    The purpose of the draft is to find top four dmen, top six wingers, and top three centers.

    Funny how you mention Ardvidsson in this thread.

    2014 4rth round pick.

  45. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    innercitysmytty:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Yeah I would do that as well. I just found it interesting because I’m not sure I’ve seen him end up there often if at all.

    That 5F experiment with Eakins was innovative and I thought worked well. It’s too bad he didn’t stick with that because I think it would have been productive enough to live with the SH goals going the other way.

    Yeah, NHL Coaches hate goals against so much that they give up value propositions to score more knowing it will lead to more goals against.

    Eakins gave up on his 5F set up after 3GF and 1 GA in 6:43

    RNH, Hall, Eberle, Perron and Yak scored a crazy 26.8 GF/60 in 6:43 then one shorty when Yak’s stick blew up and it was gone.

    To put that 26.8 in perspective, a very high end PP in the NHL is 10 GF/60

    McDavid’s On Ice GF/60 5v4 in 16/17 was 9.61.

    Uber short sample on the 5F, but you have to let that horse buck some more before you corral it.

  46. jtblack says:

    Buffalo is running 4 RH and 1 LH on PP1.

    Risto to Eichel one timer. If we run the 5 L we need a shooting threat on the RH half wall (where McD currently sets up).

    I would move McD to left half wall and have Leon on right half wall, where he could shoot a one timer from Klefbom or Cross seam from Conner.

  47. tileguy says:

    If anybody wonders what my avatar is about, and would like your head to explode have a peek at this concert held in Finland. Be patient with it, give it a couple of minutes to get going. A couple of wines before hand (or a puff) will enhance the experience.
    https://rutube.ru/video/9643c3de65f52640805872a5347adcbe/

  48. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: It’s interesting that Chiarelli throws forth round draft picks around like loose change for backup goalies or tweeners like Aberg,

    I was alone on an island in the thread that we traded for Aberg in suggesting that I would rather use the pick.

    This was such an awesome thread because I got absolutely raked over the coals for my opinion… and I was right. https://lowetide.ca/2018/02/25/g62-2017-18-oilers-at-ducks/comment-page-1/

    I don’t know the first thing about Aberg, but I would rather have the 4rth round pick.I think there’s a high cost to be paid by trying to speed up development by trading for suspects.
    The Maroon trade was dangerous because it lends itself to this false premise that there’s all of these top six players available for nothing.
    More often than not, you’re more likely to get a bust, a tweener, or a forth liner with this strategy.
    The purpose of the draft is to find top four dmen, top six wingers, and top three centers.

    Funny how you mention Ardvidsson in this thread.

    2014 4rth round pick.

    Why do you think you were right?

    You got raked over the coals for being a dick, not for your opinion.

  49. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, NHL Coaches hate goals against so much that they give up value propositions to score more knowing it will lead to more goals against.

    Eakins gave up on his 5F set up after 3GF and 1 GA in 6:43

    RNH, Hall, Eberle, Perron and Yak scored a crazy 26.8 GF/60 in 6:43 then one shorty when Yak’s stick blew up and it was gone.

    To put that 26.8 in perspective, a very high end PP in the NHL is 10 GF/60

    McDavid’s On Ice GF/60 5v4 in 16/17 was 9.61.

    Uber short sample on the 5F, but you have to let that horse buck some more before you corral it.

    I would suspect that if teams run a 5F PP unit, the opposing PK would get some glorious rush chances as they would put their faster, skilled forwards on the PK.

    If the PK gets a 2 on 1 rush chance and the only guy back is a forward, that should lead to a pretty good scoring chance.

  50. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Like a Pavlovian dog.

    Also,

    Turkey is ok if its all dark meat, especially drumsticks.

    There is one domestic breed and I believe wild turkeys as well are dark meaf. You could be a turkey lover ater all!😉

  51. jtblack says:

    Ryan,

    The best part about being “right” is when you determine the parameters; cherry pick one of the best 4th round picks in the last decade and declare brilliance.

    The Oilers actually had 2 – 4th round picks the same year Arvidsson was picked. I don’t see them on our roster?

    in 2014, 30 players were chosen in the 4th round. 1 has played more than 100 NHL games – Victor Arvidsson. Dante Heinen is the only other player from that year that is tremding to be more than a replacement level player. So if 3% – 6% chance of hitting a decent player is Brilliant, then I gotta recalibrate ….

  52. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: I would suspect that if teams run a 5F PP unit, the opposing PK would get some glorious rush chances as they would put their faster, skilled forwards on the PK.

    If the PK gets a 2 on 1 rush chance and the only guy back is a forward, that should lead to a pretty good scoring chance.

    I’m not sure how much worse Barkov would defend a rush than Yandle.

    I’m not sure it adds up to more than a goal or two a year.

  53. jtblack says:

    And I Ryan, I don’t disagree with keeping picks; just be realistic on the odds of 4th; 5th; & 6th rounds actually becoming useful NHL players.

  54. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    pts2pndr: There is one domestic breed and I believe wild turkeys as well are dark meaf. You could be a turkey lover ater all!

    An all dark meat turkey sounds like genetically modified excellence.

  55. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    And I Ryan, I don’t disagree with keeping picks; just be realistic on the odds of 4th; 5th; & 6th rounds actually becoming useful NHL players.

    Yeah, that was the logic of the Aberg side of the argument.

    A small % of 4th rounders make it to the NHL and you already had that baked in with Aberg so you were ahead of the game compared to a 4th.

  56. godot10 says:

    Todd Nelson ran a five forward PP1 in Grand Rapids the year he won the Calder Cup. He didn’t have a good offensive D that year, so he adapted to the players he had.

  57. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, that was the logic of the Aberg side of the argument.

    A small % of 4th rounders make it to the NHL and you already had that baked in with Aberg so you were ahead of the game compared to a 4th.

    Yah, I would suggest both paths have a low % of hitting a Valuable NHL player.

  58. Lowetide says:

    Ryan: It’s interesting that Chiarelli throws forth round draft picks around like loose change for backup goalies or tweeners like Aberg,

    I was alone on an island in the thread that we traded for Aberg in suggesting that I would rather use the pick.

    This was such an awesome thread because I got absolutely raked over the coals for my opinion… and I was right. https://lowetide.ca/2018/02/25/g62-2017-18-oilers-at-ducks/comment-page-1/

    I don’t know the first thing about Aberg, but I would rather have the 4rth round pick.I think there’s a high cost to be paid by trying to speed up development by trading for suspects.
    The Maroon trade was dangerous because it lends itself to this false premise that there’s all of these top six players available for nothing.
    More often than not, you’re more likely to get a bust, a tweener, or a forth liner with this strategy.
    The purpose of the draft is to find top four dmen, top six wingers, and top three centers.

    Funny how you mention Ardvidsson in this thread.

    2014 4rth round pick.

    Fourth round pick has about a 17-24 percent chance of playing 100 NHL games. I’d take Aberg today for a fourth rounder
    https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-values-1.1119528

  59. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: An all dark meat turkey sounds like genetically modified excellence.

    When I lived in the U.S. It was common to see a turkey carcass in the garbage with only the breast meat removed. I never undestood how they threwthe best parts away!

  60. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I dont get why a dmen is stuck at the point. A center is not stuck in the middle of the ice. A winger is not always playing the side walls. The goal is to make a 4-3 mismatch down low. So whoever doesnt have the puck near the point needs to be cheating to the side and behind the top defender. If you keep two players with one foot on the line you are going to be very stationary and the defenders will get in the way of your shot and even if it gets through we are really bad at tipping pucks.
    The goal should not be for your 2 defenseman to play the 5v4 like they play 5v5.
    It shouldnt matter what your position is. IF you have crappy offensive defensemen but great forwards you cannot play two defensemen on each unit, you probably shouldnt play any. If you have 4 great dmen on your team but a little short on forwards you should play the dmen. Maybe even play 3.
    My point is teams are drafting all these offensive minded puck moving D. teams traditionally did not many of these guys maybe 1-2. But now we are going to see some teams have multiple d men that are legit offensive threats

  61. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: Fourth round pick has about a 17-24 percent chance of playing 100 NHL games. I’d take Aberg today for a fourth rounder
    https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-values-1.1119528

    So you’re saying that you value a player that’s cleared waivers who hasn’t been able to establish himself as NHL regular by his draft plus seven season (started) over a fourth round pick?

    I myself would prefer the lotto ticket over Aberg.

    Even if we disagree here over the value of a player who cleared waivers, we can agree that if in some twisted world you could send a 2019 4rth round draft pick through waivers, it wouldn’t go through unclaimed.

    We can also agree that the Oilers would have been better off trading with Columbus for their forth round pick, because they lost Aberg on waivers,

  62. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    pts2pndr: When I lived in the U.S. It was common to see a turkey carcass in the garbage with only the breast meat removed. I never undestood how they threwthe best parts away!

    Amazing.

  63. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Original P, you’re a bit of a character, and I don’t really care what time you get up in the morning, but damned if I don’t agree with what I see you post the most of the time and I sincerely appreciate your sort of generalized optimism.

    Between Kavanaugh, IPCC, the Brazilian election, and every other way the world burns in total contempt of us all, I turn to the Oilers as some might turn to a serial drama or comic franchise: I choose to believe because that’s why I turn it on in the first place.

    GOILERS.

  64. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I dont get why a dmen is stuck at the point.A center is not stuck in the middle of the ice.A winger is not always playing the side walls.The goal is to make a 4-3 mismatch down low.So whoever doesnt have the puck near the point needs to be cheating to the side and behind the top defender.If you keep two players with one foot on the line you are going to be very stationary and the defenders will get in the way of your shot and even if it gets through we are really bad at tipping pucks.
    The goal should not be for your 2 defenseman to play the 5v4 like they play 5v5.
    It shouldnt matter what your position is.IF you have crappy offensive defensemen but great forwards you cannot play two defensemen on each unit, you probably shouldnt play any.If you have 4 great dmen on your team but a little short on forwards you should play the dmen.Maybe even play 3.
    My point is teams are drafting all these offensive minded puck moving D.teams traditionally did not many of these guys maybe 1-2.But now we are going to see some teams have multiple d men that are legit offensive threats

    I think I get it now.

    I think, generally speaking, that the puck skills of most forwards are more suited to the PP than a lot of Dmen.

    I could be wrong.

  65. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: So you’re saying that you value a player that’s cleared waivers who hasn’t been able to establish himself as NHL regular by his draft plus seven season (started) over a fourth round pick?

    I myself would prefer the lotto ticket over Aberg.

    Even if we disagree here over the value of a player who cleared waivers, we can agree that if in some twisted world you could send a 2019 4rth round draft pick through waivers, it wouldn’t go through unclaimed.

    We can also agree that the Oilers would have been better off trading with Columbus for their forth round pick, because they lost Aberg on waivers,

    That’s results oriented thinking.

    The bet on Aberg was superior than a bet on a 4th due to Aberg already surpassing the NHL gp of ~85% of 4th round picks.

    That he didn’t stick in EDM (or ANA) doesn’t change the original bet.

  66. Lowetide says:

    Ryan: So you’re saying that you value a player that’s cleared waivers who hasn’t been able to establish himself as NHL regular by his draft plus seven season (started) over a fourth round pick?

    I myself would prefer the lotto ticket over Aberg.

    Even if we disagree here over the value of a player who cleared waivers, we can agree that if in some twisted world you could send a 2019 4rth round draft pick through waivers, it wouldn’t go through unclaimed.

    We can also agree that the Oilers would have been better off trading with Columbus for their forth round pick, because they lost Aberg on waivers,

    You’re looking at Aberg as a spent force, when in reality the odds of the fourth-round pick ever getting to the NHL is not good. I will give you the Oilers being better at drafting and that has value. Still, Aberg’s story has a lot of track left, for me he was a very reasonable bet on the day he was acquired by Edmonton and nothing that has happened since diminishes him to my eye.

    Also, the pick would pass through waivers because it takes up a roster spot. It’s like a tax on your team, that spot, and a fourth isn’t worth the sacrifice.

  67. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think I get it now.

    I think, generally speaking, that the puck skills of most forwards are more suited to the PP than a lot of Dmen.

    I could be wrong.

    Absolutely. As a whole its very much true. But we are transitioning now. Teams will draft defenders that cant defend but have good offensive skill hoping they can teach them how to defend. The puck distribution skills of defensemen are rapidly changing. You used to be able to make a good career with just defensive work. Now if you cant skate, or pass or defend you dont get very far.
    Like take a look at the Oil. I dont think it will take long for Bear and Bouchard to knock off guys from our second PP. We are just that thin on forwards that we are just putting warm bodies on our powerplay

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    Good news on Nuge:

    “He got dinged up in the game in Gothenburg and with the flight yesterday it just wasn’t a good idea for him to skate.” @RNH_93 expected to return to practice Wednesday after missing today’s #Oilers skate in Boston.

  69. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    It’s hard to accuse me of using hindsight when I had the same opinion at the time of the trade.

    If your goal line is to find a player that is most likely to meander his way to 100 NHL games on a sundry of NHL teams, while playing in the bottom six, then maybe I’m taking Aberg too.

    If you’re getting more certainty of making it to 100 games, you’re also contemporaneously given up hope of getting a top six winger.

    Can you (or anyone) name any comparables for Aberg that we’re traded at a similar point in their careers that went on to be more than replacement level? (Not a rhetorical question). Glen cross has a different story imo.

    Can some on remind me of the particulars, but didn’t Sutter in Calgary make a similar gambit on this train of thought except instead of dumpster diving for suspects, he traded picks for aged vets on the decline?

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Chelios is a Dinosaur:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Original P, you’re a bit of a character, and I don’t really care what time you get up in the morning, but damned if I don’t agree with what I see you post the most of the time and I sincerely appreciate your sort of generalized optimism.

    Between Kavanaugh, IPCC, the Brazilian election, and every other way the world burns in total contempt of us all, I turn to the Oilers as some might turn to a serial drama or comic franchise: I choose to believe because that’s why I turn it on in the first place.

    GOILERS.

    I’m not quite sure what to make of that post – thank you…… I think?

  71. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: You’re looking at Aberg as a spent force, when in reality the odds of the fourth-round pick ever getting to the NHL is not good. I will give you the Oilers being better at drafting and that has value. Still, Aberg’s story has a lot of track left, for me he was a very reasonable bet on the day he was acquired by Edmonton and nothing that has happened since diminishes him to my eye.

    Also, the pick would pass through waivers because it takes up a roster spot. It’s like a tax on your team, that spot, and a fourth isn’t worth the sacrifice.

    Sorry, I wasn’t clear.

    When the Oilers acquired Aberg, they presumably could have traded Columbus for a fourth rounder in the up coming draft.

    I meant hypothetically if there was a way to send a 2019 fourth round pick through waivers today, it wouldn’t go unclaimed and it wouldn’t take a roster spot because the draft has not occurred yet.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s results oriented thinking.

    The bet on Aberg was superior than a bet on a 4th due to Aberg already surpassing the NHL gp of ~85% of 4th round picks.

    That he didn’t stick in EDM (or ANA) doesn’t change the original bet.

    Doesn’t this depend on what you are hoping to get with the bet?

    I mean, when acquiring Aberg, we knew for the most part what we were getting – a tweener that had offensive skills but is highly unlikely to ever put it together to be an every day NHL player, let alone a top 6 guy. We knew what this player was going to provide.

    With a fourth round pick, there is a high chance the pick would never ever make it to the “Aberg level”, however, there is also a chance, as minute as it might be, that the player well surpasses the “Aberg level” – the Arvidsson!

    One pick is “safe”, I guess, a plug and play tweener that, every once in a while would get 5 points in 3 games but then do nothing for a month vs. the likelihood of a player that never signs an NHL contract but yet a minute chance at an Arvidsson.

  73. stephen sheps says:

    pts2pndr: wild turkeys

    pts2pndr: When I lived in the U.S.

    When I lived in the US I actually saw legit wild turkeys for the first time in my life. And for a change I’m not actually talking about whiskey.

    Woodguy v2.0: An all dark meat turkey sounds like genetically modified excellence.

    My grandfather would probably agree with you. He’s a tiny old man but even when he was younger he was essentially like a Jewish radar o’reily (not just because that’s actually the role he had in WWII but also because he’s barely 5’2 with round glasses just with a Brooklyn accent rather than Iowa). Anyhoo whenever we had a turkey day, a leg was always his. Didn’t matter how big of a bird, that drumstick was always his and he ate it like a caveman. The look in his eye every single time was pure joy, regardless of how ridiculous it was to see this little old guy eating a giant drumstick. With Turkey, dark meat is always the superior choice.

    ———

    Regardless of how anyone around here feels about thanksgiving and what it represents (togetherness, the harvest season, settler colonialism and all of its problems, maybe all 3), I do hope all of you have had a wonderful long weekend with family and friends. I don’t have the family stories to share or a dog as ridiculous as Ziggy, but it’s been a fantastic long weekend. Went to Detroit for a football game yesterday, currently watching my beloved Astros sweep the Cleveland baseball concern, looking every bit as dominant as last season. It was exactly what I needed.

  74. jtblack says:

    Ryan: Sorry, I wasn’t clear.

    When the Oilers acquired Aberg, they presumably could have traded Columbus for a fourth rounder in the up coming draft.

    I meant hypothetically if there was a way to send a 2019 fourth round pick through waivers today, it wouldn’t go unclaimed and it wouldn’t take a roster spot because the draft has not occurred yet.

    What did you post (or say) at the time Edmonton acquired Pat Maroon for a 4th round pick and fledgling prospect?

  75. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan,

    It’s hard to accuse me of using hindsight when I had the same opinion at the time of the trade.

    It’s a good thing I didn’t accuse you of hindsight then.

    I said “results oriented thinking”

    The bet on Aberg was the better one.

    Saying that “because Aberg cleared waiver I was right” is results oriented thinking.

    It’s like like giving some +110 on a coin flip, winning the flip and saying you were right for giving +110.

    Winning the bet (or guess on Aberg vs 4th in this case) doesn’t changed that it was the lessor bet to start with.

    I think the goal in getting Aberg or using a 4th is “NHL player who can contribute”

    Aberg was, and is, more likely to be that than a 4th.

  76. jtblack says:

    Look at the Oilers 4th round picks over the last 20 years. Grab a box of kleenex.

    I think their Late picks since PC arrived are waaaay better.

    So the value of a 4th round pick greatly depends on the acumen of the Scouting staff!

  77. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Ryan,

    It’s hard to accuse me of using hindsight when I had the same opinion at the time of the trade.

    It’s a good thing I didn’t accuse you of hindsight then.

    I said “results oriented thinking”

    The bet on Aberg was the better one.

    Saying that “because Aberg cleared waiver I was right” is results oriented thinking.

    It’s like like giving some +110on a coin flip, winning the flip and saying you were right for giving +110.

    Winning the bet (or guess on Aberg vs 4th in this case) doesn’t changed that it was the lessor bet to start with.

    I think the goal in getting Aberg or using a 4th is “NHL player who can contribute”

    Aberg was, and is, more likely to be that than a 4th.

    Alright.

    Let’s forget about the outcome here and spin around in circles.

    Outside of reiterating your opinion and declaring it to be correct, did you make another point that I missed?

  78. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Doesn’t this depend on what you are hoping to get with the bet?

    I mean, when acquiring Aberg, we knew for the most part what we were getting – a tweener that had offensive skills but is highly unlikely to ever put it together to be an every day NHL player, let alone a top 6 guy. We knew what this player was going to provide.

    With a fourth round pick, there is a high chance the pick would never ever make it to the “Aberg level”, however, there is also a chance, as minute as it might be, that the player well surpasses the “Aberg level” – the Arvidsson!

    One pick is “safe”, I guess, a plug and play tweener that, every once in a while would get 5 points in 3 games but then do nothing for a month vs. the likelihood of a player that never signs an NHL contract but yet a minute chance at an Arvidsson.

    The other factor here and this is where I think Woodguy, Lowetide and I diverge…

    It doesn’t matter if Aberg makes it to 400 NHL games, plays as a top six winger, or even makes the hockey hall of fame. (None of that matters if he’s doing it wearing a different jersey.)

    That’s not the bet.

    The bet was that Aberg would earn a roster spot on the Oilers at the start of this season, he didn’t.

  79. Wilde says:

    Well, now I’m just confused.

    This was best case scenario when you waive Aberg – if you can get him to Bakersfield, you do it.

    The Condors are short three Abergs. What’s up?

  80. jake70 says:

    Next door in Regina. 7 of us flew from the East coast for a family member’s official welcoming into the national police force……..interesting couple of days. And rumours.are true…man it’s flat out here. Happy Thanksgiving.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Coach was fairly blunt about Nurse and Benning when asked about them being split up for times at practice. He was pretty clear that he was not happy with their performance but also pretty clear that the team is relying on the pairing.

    Hopefully they are better on Thursday – we need that second pairing.

    ———————————–

    “We have seven (defencemen) so you’re always going to see split guys right now. It was evident that there was one pair that struggled a lot when it came to puck moving and preventing. We’ve dealt with that and talked to them. As a group, we have to move pucks better, we have to defend better, be a little bit quicker and I think there’s some offence that can be created from that group as well.”

    “That’s only one segment of the team. The goaltending, forwards and coaching staff can all sharpen up a little bit.”

    “They’re both young defencemen as far as games played and they’re playing big minutes and that’s part of growing up. Eventually in years two or three of your career or maybe four you’ve got to assume that role. You’ve got to pick your spots when you want to go on offence. Those two should be prime time defenders to shut other teams’ offensive players down,” McLellan remarked. “They should be good penalty killers. They should initiate breakouts, move pucks up ice. I think they can both play physical and they’ve got a lot of tools.

    “Sometimes you’re over physical, you’re running out of position. They made mistakes.”

  82. Yeti says:

    Wilde:
    Well, now I’m just confused.

    This was best case scenario when you waive Aberg – if you can get him to Bakersfield, you do it.

    The Condors are short three Abergs. What’s up?

    They need Abergs without sideburns?

  83. hunter1909 says:

    With the team looking like they’re not listening to the coach, unless they’re listening too hard to the coach – when does Mclellan get the chop?

    How exactly many games will the KLowne show(Oilers management) wait?

    Opening Over/Under set at 20 games.

  84. Glovjuice says:

    jtblack: So are you suggesting Connor should be opposite of where he sets up now? or same side?

    just trying to wrap my head around the 5R vs 5L?

    I hate to do this, but, duh.

  85. Lowetide says:

    jake70:
    Next door in Regina. 7 of us flew from the East coast for a family member’sofficial welcoming into the national police force……..interesting couple of days. And rumours.are true…man it’sflat out here.Happy Thanksgiving.

    It’s amazing how flat it really is there. Loved my time in Regina though.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    Well, now I’m just confused.

    This was best case scenario when you waive Aberg – if you can get him to Bakersfield, you do it.

    The Condors are short three Abergs. What’s up?

    To me, it was a no-brainer re-claim and send to Bakersfield.

    Note: He could only be sent to Bakersfield if no other team put in a claim for him (which did turn out to be the case) – so, if we put in a claim, and another team did as well, we’d need to keep him on the roster and make a roster move.

    I was all for putting in a claim – he’d be a nice add for the Condors and another body between the NHL and the likes of Brad Malone and Patrick Russell and another body to shelter the first year pros (Marody, Benson) to ensure they aren’t called up before they are really ready.

    I guess the org just didn’t want the player or perhaps Katz didn’t want to spend $650K for him to play for the Condors or perhaps they wanted the contract spot on the 50.

  87. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: To me, it was a no-brainer re-claim and send to Bakersfield.

    Note: He could only be sent to Bakersfield if no other team put in a claim for him (which did turn out to be the case) – so, if we put in a claim, and another team did as well, we’d need to keep him on the roster and make a roster move.

    I was all for putting in a claim – he’d be a nice add for the Condors and another body between the NHL and the likes of Brad Malone and Patrick Russell and another body to shelter the first year pros (Marody, Benson) to ensure they aren’t called up before they are really ready.

    I guess the org just didn’t want the player or perhaps Katz didn’t want to spend $650K for him to play for the Condors or perhaps they wanted the contract spot on the 50.

    The org wanted Alex Chiasson. The roster spot is the value and Chiasson>Aberg>fourth-round pick. People talk about these things like you can collect 500 players.You can’t. There’s 23. Aberg was a better, Chiarelli is making a different one, a better one in his opinion. And you know what? He’s pretty good at this part of the roster improvement.

  88. digger50 says:

    Wilde:
    Well, now I’m just confused.

    This was best case scenario when you waive Aberg – if you can get him to Bakersfield, you do it.

    The Condors are short three Abergs. What’s up?

    Yes, I was wondering the same. I thought they had a plan for him.

    I conclude they really , really didn’t like Aberg. Now I can propose to be correct when I said Aberg doesn’t have a chance if Todd remains coach. Only now the tide has turned a little for Todd, another Org might have seen the same. Or they might be quite smart in that they intended to boost the talent on thier farm team from the moment they claimed him.

  89. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: To me, it was a no-brainer re-claim and send to Bakersfield.

    Note: He could only be sent to Bakersfield if no other team put in a claim for him (which did turn out to be the case) – so, if we put in a claim, and another team did as well, we’d need to keep him on the roster and make a roster move.

    I was all for putting in a claim – he’d be a nice add for the Condors and another body between the NHL and the likes of Brad Malone and Patrick Russell and another body to shelter the first year pros (Marody, Benson) to ensure they aren’t called up before they are really ready.

    I guess the org just didn’t want the player or perhaps Katz didn’t want to spend $650K for him to play for the Condors or perhaps they wanted the contract spot on the 50.

    OP, you gotta stop picking on Malone. When we talk about how bad the fans in Edmonton can be in regards to relentlessly picking on players. Your starting to join that group.

  90. Ryan says:

    digger50: Yes, I was wondering the same. I thought they had a plan for him.

    I conclude they really , really didn’t like Aberg. Now I can propose to be correct when I said Aberg doesn’t have a chance if Todd remains coach. Only now the tide has turned a little for Todd, another Org might have seen the same. Or they might be quite smart in that they intended to boost the talent on thier farm team from the moment they claimed him.

    He’s expensive for the AHL. He’s even pretty expensive in the AHL for a budget team like Anaheim.

  91. Glovjuice says:

    tileguy:
    If anybody wonders what my avatar is about, and would like your head to explode have a peek at this concert held in Finland. Be patient with it, give it a couple of minutes to get going. A couple of wines before hand (or a puff) will enhance the experience.
    https://rutube.ru/video/9643c3de65f52640805872a5347adcbe/

    fantastical in the extreme

  92. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not quite sure what to make of that post – thank you…… I think?

    He says no one cares about your rock hard abs.

  93. colieo_87 says:

    Happy Thanksgiving to everyone on the blog and to the wonderful host as always LT. One big happy family here. I’m currently stuck in camp but its been good. Take care everyone and lets all try to make it though December and start new memories for 2019. 🙂

  94. tileguy says:

    Glovjuice: fantastical in the extreme

    😀

    I think LT would enjoy it as well, most folks from Sask. seem a little off centre.
    https://rutube.ru/video/9643c3de65f52640805872a5347adcbe/

  95. VOR says:

    Ryan: The other factor here and this is where I think Woodguy, Lowetide and I diverge…

    It doesn’t matter if Aberg makes it to 400 NHL games, plays as a top six winger, or even makes the hockey hall of fame. (None of that matters if he’s doing it wearing a different jersey.)

    That’s not the bet.

    The bet was that Aberg would earn a roster spot on the Oilers at the start of this season, he didn’t.

    I would argue the bet Oilers management were making was that Aberg would provide more value than the expected value of a player taken with that pick. Whether that was a good or a bad bet the day it was made is the critical, and difficult to answer, question. If we judge the outcome after the fact hindsight bias creeps in.

    We know that the value of the draft choice would depend on the skill of the scouts, the strength of the draft year, organizational fit, and luck. An average fourth round pick produces an impact player 1.5% Of the time and has a 50+% chance of yielding nothing. Only once since 2005 has the chance of a fourth round pick being a total miss been less than 50% (2009). It has been as high as 66% chance of missing.

    Typical fourth rounders also take on average of 4 years post draft to arrive in the NHL.

    Fourth round picks don’t usually tear it up when they do arrive in the NHL. A median forward from the fourth round would play close to 100 games and get 32 points. On the other hand the range of outcomes is enormous and the Oilers might draft a D making the range even more enormous. The pick could turn out to be Arvidsson, Gaudreau, Yandle or Slavin (arguably the best 4th rounders from 2005 to the present.) But they are also the only truly bright lights taken in the years 2005-2014.

    Aberg on the other hand was immediate help and is tracking to have pretty much the same career as your typical fourth round pick. He ticked a number of boxes for the Oilers. He is a reasonably good skater. Aberg is also skilled. Best of all he is and was cheap. At this moment in time cheap role players are something the Oilers desperately need.

    On balance I think the trade was for a player who was unlikely to have a high marginal benefit to the Oilers. Had they taken a fourth rounder they would have been securing an asset that was unlikely to have a high marginal benefit to the Oilers. There was some chance Aberg would have significant value to the Oilers. There was some chance the draft pick would have turned out to have significant value for the Oilers.

    Basically the Oilers made a decision that reduced risk but that came with an opportunity cost. The truth is the Oilers strategy was sound. Aberg played for the Oilers in the NHL something over 1/2 of 4th round picks could not reasonably be expected to do. Even in hindsight the Oilers management made the right call based on what they knew at the time.

    That said, I think they may have underestimated the opportunity cost but that is very hard to calculate accurately.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: The org wanted Alex Chiasson. The roster spot is the value and Chiasson>Aberg>fourth-round pick. People talk about these things like you can collect 500 players.You can’t. There’s 23. Aberg was a better, Chiarelli is making a different one, a better one in his opinion. And you know what? He’s pretty good at this part of the roster improvement.

    Sure, fair enough, however, my point still stands, I think.

    I believe Aberg could have (should have) been re-acquired to add more depth and to shelter.

    He could have been sent to the minors and his cap hit fully buried. Zero effect on anything except Katz’s pocket-book and a spot on the 50.

    As of now, one forward injury hits and this team is calling up Brad Malone and then Patrick Russell, neither of which are NHL players. I guess they could call-up a rookie pro in Tyler Benson or Cooper Marody but I think we can all agree on what the best league is for those players.

    What if its Nuge that gets hurt or Yamamoto? Now we likely have Caggulia in the top 6 – I’d prefer having Aberg for that spot.

    Anyways, its not the end of the world (well, until our lineup has Caggulia, Chaisson and Malone playing because a few injuries pile up).

  97. McSorley33 says:

    Ryan,

    It’s now pretty clear the current value of Aberg and Montoya. ( zero)

    It’s known what our GM paid for those players.( not zero)

    You don’t have to defend yourself Ryan.

    The odd thing is, these transactions fit perfectly into PC’ larger body of work.

    I agreed with the Aberg trade, for the record.

    Doesn’t change how the trades netted out for our GM.

  98. Pescador says:

    Glovjuice: He says no one cares about your rock hard abs.

    Or your big muscley arms,
    I don’t care how sexy they are,

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50: OP, you gotta stop picking on Malone. When we talk about how bad the fans in Edmonton can be in regards to relentlessly picking on players. Your starting to join that group.

    I’m not picking on Brad Malone (or Patrick Russell). As of right now, he’s the first call-up in case of injury. I would prefer that to be Pontus Aberg if I had the choice. Malone is relevant to the Aberg conversation, hence he was referenced.

  100. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: The org wanted Alex Chiasson. The roster spot is the value and Chiasson>Aberg>fourth-round pick. People talk about these things like you can collect 500 players.You can’t. There’s 23. Aberg was a better, Chiarelli is making a different one, a better one in his opinion. And you know what? He’s pretty good at this part of the roster improvement.

    Really? Caggiula? Kassian? Korpikoski? He got two decent years out of Letestu. Brodziak had an awful first game on his two year deal.

  101. Pescador says:

    tileguy:
    If anybody wonders what my avatar is about, and would like your head to explode have a peek at this concert held in Finland. Be patient with it, give it a couple of minutes to get going. A couple of wines before hand (or a puff) will enhance the experience.
    https://rutube.ru/video/9643c3de65f52640805872a5347adcbe/

    I thought it was a millennial version of Flock of Seagulls

  102. VOR says:

    Lowetide: The org wanted Alex Chiasson. The roster spot is the value and Chiasson>Aberg>fourth-round pick. People talk about these things like you can collect 500 players.You can’t. There’s 23. Aberg was a better, Chiarelli is making a different one, a better one in his opinion. And you know what? He’s pretty good at this part of the roster improvement.

    This is yet another factor in the analysis of the Oilers decision making. Aberg certainly had more immediate value than a fourth round pick and Alex Chiasson definitely has more immediate value than Pontus Aberg. I don’t see how you can fault their betting strategy or their decision making.

  103. Caller Zen says:

    hunter1909:
    With the team looking like they’re not listening to the coach, unless they’re listening too hard to the coach – when does Mclellan get the chop?

    How exactly many games will the KLowne show(Oilers management) wait?

    Opening Over/Under set at 20 games.

    I’ll go for the under and say unlucky #13. Chia will cut him loose to buy himself more time (until the 2019 offseason arrives and he gets the axe)

  104. VOR says:

    Not to mention that sequence is Letestu for Aberg for Chiasson. So a faded NHL player becomes a younger tweeter becomes a mid career NHL player. I’d say Chiarelli did his job. He upgraded his roster in that sequence of transactions.

    On the other hand I am still not sure about the Brodziak signing. And in a way the deal has become Letestu for Brodziak and Chiasson.

  105. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure, fair enough, however, my point still stands, I think.

    I believe Aberg could have (should have) been re-acquired to add more depth and to shelter.

    He could have been sent to the minors and his cap hit fully buried.Zero effect on anything except Katz’s pocket-book and a spot on the 50.

    As I understand waivers, the Oilers would have had to keep Aberg on the major league roster in claiming him. The option you are suggesting wasn’t possible, he was heading to San Diego unless Edmonton (or another team) claimed him.

  106. innercitysmytty says:

    Lowetide,

    I think OP is right on this one with Edmonton being the original team waiving the player and him being waived again within the 30 days and less than a certain number of games. Could be wrong but that’s my understanding.

  107. treevojo says:

    Glovjuice: He says no one cares about your rock hard abs.

    This obviously false.

    Another poster asked OP about his workout regimen quite recently and he responded with a link.

    The best thing about Lowetide is the wide variety of topics you can gain knowledge about besides hockey.

    In saying that OPS muscular abs and biceps probably aren’t for everyone.

    Since I’m on the topic of things other then oilers hockey I have a question for woodguy or other Irish whiskey drinkers.

    I have been trying bottles of scotch for under $100 this last year and quite enjoy some of the suggestions on here.

    I need a starting suggestion for a good Irish whiskey in that price range to see if I enjoy it the same.

    Thanks in advance.

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: As I understand waivers, the Oilers would have had to keep Aberg on the major league roster in claiming him. The option you are suggesting wasn’t possible, he was heading to San Diego unless Edmonton (or another team) claimed him.

    Sorry LT but this is not correct – given noone else but in a claim for Aberg aside from the Oilers re-claim, he absolutely could have been sent to Bakersfield.

    It was indeed an option – they could have had him back from free and bury him in the AHL which would help the condors and provide a better call-up option.

    It only would have cost Katz’s money and a spot on the 50.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    I knew this to be true but it was also confirmed by Capfriendly:

    More CapFriendly Retweeted Elliotte Friedman
    If the Edmonton #Oilers reclaim Aberg, and they are the only club to put in a claim, they can then loan him down to Bakersfield in the AHL without requiring further action.CapFriendly added,
    Elliotte Friedman
    Verified account

    @FriedgeHNIC
    Aberg (ANA) on waivers
    11 replies 33 retweets 81 likes
    Reply 11 Retweet 33 Like 81 Direct message

  110. Lowetide says:

    innercitysmytty:
    Lowetide,

    I think OP is right on this one with Edmonton being the original team waiving the player and him being waived again within the 30 days and less than a certain number of games. Could be wrong but that’s my understanding.

    Ah. I understand. Thanks for clarifying.

  111. jtblack says:

    Nashville 4th round picks on current roster.

    Arvidsson – 2014
    Saros – 2013
    Ekholm – 2009
    Smith – 2009

    😉

  112. Wilde says:

    yeah that was the function I was referring to, he would have been a free top line forward for the Condors

    e: Pontus Aberg’s 2016-17 5v5 estimated p/60 in Milwaukee was well clear of any player on Bakersfield in 2017-18

  113. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: Alright.

    Let’s forget about the outcome here and spin around in circles.

    Outside of reiterating your opinion and declaring it to be correct, did you make another point that I missed?

    Well, I corrected your mis-representation of my argument, but that’s not making a point.

    Also,

    A young player with NHL games played, speed, a shot, and still with their first NHL team being worth more than a 4th isn’t an opinion. Its pretty much generally accepted fact.

  114. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    treevojo,

    Have a dram of Tullamore Dew Irish Whiskey; probably a better entry into the segment than Jamieson. Sort of similar to Scotch, with The Glenlivet being superior to Glenfiddich in all aspects other than marketing (until you at least ascend to 18yr and up).

  115. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    treevojo: This obviously false.

    Another poster asked OP about his workout regimen quite recently and he responded with a link.

    The best thing about Lowetide is the wide variety of topics you can gain knowledge about besides hockey.

    In saying that OPS muscular abs and biceps probably aren’t for everyone.

    Since I’m on the topic of things other then oilers hockey I have a question for woodguy or other Irish whiskey drinkers.

    I have been trying bottles of scotch for under $100 this last year and quite enjoy some of the suggestions on here.

    I need a starting suggestion for a good Irish whiskey in that price range to see if I enjoy it the same.

    Thanks in advance.

    Red Breast 12yr
    Writer’s Tears
    Knappouge Castle 12yr
    Tullamore Dew 12yr (stay away from younger TD’s)

    4 of my current favs under $100

  116. Pescador says:

    jtblack:
    Nashville 4th round picks on current roster.

    Arvidsson – 2014
    Saros – 2013
    Ekholm – 2009
    Smith – 2009

    Sick!
    now do the Oilers

  117. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not picking on Brad Malone (or Patrick Russell).As of right now, he’s the first call-up in case of injury.I would prefer that to be Pontus Aberg if I had the choice. Malone is relevant to the Aberg conversation, hence he was referenced.

    When People talk about bad fans – you are “that guy” and don’t even know it.

    Relentless harassment of this hockey player for no apparent reason.

  118. Wilde says:

    I dream of a 280-goal AHL team, where when Kailer Yamamoto or Jesse Puljujarvi go down with an injury you call up a Maksimov who’s in the middle of a PPG season because every player on the team can skate and pass and score

  119. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Well, I corrected your mis-representation of my argument, but that’s not making a point.

    Also,

    A young player with NHL games played, speed, a shot, who can’t forecheck or kill penalties, or earn a roster spot who’s on his last year of being waiver exempt is a rapidly declining asset that savvy GM’s unload and foolish ones buy. This isn’t an opinion.Its pretty much generally accepted fact.

    FTFY.

  120. Wilde says:

    Sheldon Keefe’s rookie AHL season his Marlies team went 294-191 GF-GA with only one blue-chip prospect on the team (William Nylander, 45pts in 38 games).

  121. Bling says:

    I think another wrinkle to add to the whole valuation of Chiasson, Aberg and the 4th rounder is the coaching staff.

    The GM and co can bring players in, but reclamation projects/breakouts only really happen when there is some level of buy-in from the coaching staff.

    I think if you look at Aberg’s body of work, which is close to 2.0 EVP/60 in Edmonton (albeit in a small sample), you arrive at a pretty decent player who probably didn’t get the sort of opportunity he arguably ought to have.

    Chia did well on that move, but McLellan didn’t want him here after a so-so camp, and Aberg was already on thin ice as it was for having missed a practice last season.

    I think all of those factors played into Aberg’s demise — not to mention the excellent camps of Benson and Marody. Chia can’t predict all of those things — the best he can do is deliver a guy who can play, and that’s what he did.

  122. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: As I understand waivers, the Oilers would have had to keep Aberg on the major league roster in claiming him. The option you are suggesting wasn’t possible, he was heading to San Diego unless Edmonton (or another team) claimed him.

    If no one else claimed Aberg, and the Oilers re-claimed him, the Oilers would be free to send him to Bakersfield. When the original team reclaims a player lost on waivers, he has cleared waivers, and therefore can be send to the minors.

  123. Wilde says:

    Bling,

    Same thing with Jerabek.

    Pete brings him in based on a regular and playoff body of work (38 NHL games) last year, Todd flushes him after a couple weeks of preseason hockey.

    It’s entirely dysfunctional. I’m cheering for this organisation long-term, and that means I don’t mind a losing season this year so long as the HC goes and nobody else does.

  124. Glovjuice says:

    treevojo: This obviously false.

    Another poster asked OP about his workout regimen quite recently and he responded with a link.

    The best thing about Lowetide is the wide variety of topics you can gain knowledge about besides hockey.

    In saying that OPS muscular abs and biceps probably aren’t for everyone.

    Since I’m on the topic of things other then oilers hockey I have a question for woodguy or other Irish whiskey drinkers.

    I have been trying bottles of scotch for under $100 this last year and quite enjoy some of the suggestions on here.

    I need a starting suggestion for a good Irish whiskey in that price range to see if I enjoy it the same.

    Thanks in advance.

    Bushmills 16 year

  125. Bank Shot says:

    Wilde:
    Bling,

    Same thing with Jerabek.

    Pete brings him in based on a regular and playoff body of work (38 NHL games) last year, Todd flushes him after a couple weeks of preseason hockey.

    It’s entirely dysfunctional. I’m cheering for this organisation long-term, and that means I don’t mind a losing season this year so long as the HC goes and nobody else does.

    Todd can’t put a guy on waivers. That is a GM decision.

    We don’t really know how that all played out. We have seen that Chiarelli is pretty quick to walk away from his own decisions. Jokinen for one.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50: When People talk about bad fans – you are “that guy”and don’t even know it.

    Relentless harassment of this hockey player for no apparent reason.

    Again, we are talking about Pontus Aberg who was available on waivers yesterday/today.

    We are one injury to a Nuge a Rattie a Yamamoto a Lucic from Drake Caggulia being in the top 6 and Brad Malone from being on the roster. I would prefer Pontus Aberg to be cover for this type of situation. I feel he’s a better fit for the top 6 and more of an NHL player than Brad Malone.

    I’m not sure how mentioning preferring Aberg over Malone as the first call-up is harassment.

    I have Brad Malone ample cudos on Saturday evening watching him play in Bakersfield – he had a great night.

    If you feel I am a “bad fan”, feel free to ignore me.

    P.S. I’m quite certain Brad Malone isn’t feeling harassed by my posts that mention him.

    Man, if my posting regarding Brad Malone makes me a “bad fan”, I wonder had “bad of a fan” so many on here that spew vitriol at Caggulia, McLellan, Chiarelli, Lucic, etc. are.

    They must be sub-fans.

  127. Wilde says:

    I feel vindicated being so high on Marody.

    I remember, it went like this –

    – first, cursory glance over his draft cluster and college production / / whether or not he hit my thresholds for an offensive player

    – checked out draft year highlights

    – then watched his NCAA games (the same ones as OP refers to) to get an idea of his player identity and was sure I was watching a future NHL career because of his handling (edges, puck skill) and his processing – excellent zonal transition player with OZ vision

    – this raises a possible red flag in my player evaluation – that a player smashes checkboxes in the eye test for a skill player, but has underwhelming production (Casey Middlestadt syndrome)

    – I value productions above all else for forwards, check out his draft year and minus one stats and the player was basically within two 5v5 points of Kyler Connor, at the exact same age.

    – posted those scoring numbers here a couple times at this point

    He’s the real deal. I’m confused that he dropped in the draft, I’m confused that Philadelphia parted with him (I know their system is deep) and I’m again impressed with the amateur scouting – Boston took Cameron Hughes a few picks later, another college forward, was Keith Gretzky with them at that time and had Marody on their board?

  128. Ryan says:

    McSorley33:
    Ryan,

    It’s now pretty clear the current value of Aberg and Montoya. ( zero)

    It’s known what our GM paid for those players.( not zero)

    You don’t have to defend yourself Ryan.

    The odd thing is, these transactions fit perfectly into PC’ larger body of work.

    I agreed with the Aberg trade, for the record.

    Doesn’t change how the trades netted out for our GM.

    Thanks for the kind words.

  129. Wilde says:

    Bank Shot:

    Todd can’t put a guy on waivers. That is a GM decision.

    Lol

  130. Glovjuice says:

    digger50: When People talk about bad fans – you are “that guy”and don’t even know it.

    Relentless harassment of this hockey player for no apparent reason.

    I would say that for someome to be considered harassed; they need to be aware of it.

  131. Bling says:

    Wilde:
    Bling,

    Same thing with Jerabek.

    Pete brings him in based on a regular and playoff body of work (38 NHL games) last year, Todd flushes him after a couple weeks of preseason hockey.

    It’s entirely dysfunctional. I’m cheering for this organisation long-term, and that means I don’t mind a losing season this year so long as the HC goes and nobody else does.

    I agree.

    Jerabek acquitted himself well in a top 4 role for the Canadiens last season. There is no way Garrison can do that at this junction in his career.

    I value that regular season performance over preseason games in which guys are at varying levels of preparation.

    This is end of the roster stuff that probably doesn’t matter, but it is extremely frustrating when the pro scouting does its job, but the coaching staff can’t get on board.

    If Jerabek was good enough to play top 4 for Claude Julien — who had good things to say — and good enough to garner spot duty for the Caps, how is he not good enough to be a number 7 D here?

    It’s a little baffling.

  132. GMB3 says:

    Ryan: FTFY.

    You’re kind of a douchebag, eh?

  133. GMB3 says:

    Wilde:
    I feel vindicated being so high on Marody.

    I remember, it went like this –

    – first, cursory glance over his draft cluster and college production / / whether or not he hit my thresholds for an offensive player

    – checked out draft year highlights

    – then watched his NCAA games (the same ones as OP refers to) to get an idea of his player identity and was sure I was watching a future NHL career because of his handling (edges, puck skill) and his processing – excellent zonal transition player with OZ vision

    – this raises a possible red flag in my player evaluation – that a player smashes checkboxes in the eye test for a skill player, but has underwhelming production (Casey Middlestadt syndrome)

    – I value productions above all else for forwards, check out his draft year and minus one stats and the player was basically within two 5v5 points of Kyler Connor, at the exact same age.

    – posted those scoring numbers here a couple times at this point

    He’s the real deal. I’m confused that he dropped in the draft, I’m confused that Philadelphia parted with him (I know their system is deep) and I’m again impressed with the amateur scouting – Boston took Cameron Hughes a few picks later, another college forward, was Keith Gretzky with them at that time and had Marody on their board?

    Within 2 5v5 points of Kyle Connor? Where are you finding his 5v5 production? He had an incredible amount of primary points during his draft year according to prospect-stats, but I’m unable to find his 5v5 stats

  134. godot10 says:

    Bling: I agree.

    Jerabek acquitted himself well in a top 4 role for the Canadiens last season. There is no way Garrison can do that at this junction in his career.

    I value that regular season performance over preseason games in which guys are at varying levels of preparation.

    This is end of the roster stuff that probably doesn’t matter, but it is extremely frustrating when the pro scouting does its job, but the coaching staff can’t get on board.

    If Jerabek was good enough to play top 4 for Claude Julien — who had good things to say — and good enough to garner spot duty for the Caps, how is he not good enough to be a number 7 D here?

    It’s a little baffling.

    Perhaps he was confused when they told him to ram the puck up the boards blindly rather than trying to make breakout passes.

    Trotz and Julien had forwards coming back into position to receive passes. McLellan not so much.

  135. GMB3 says:

    Connor had nearly double the amount of SOG as Marody in his draft year, wow. I’m honestly surprised Connor dropped to 17th.

    When you compare Marody’s primary point totals to other notable draft picks out of the USHL, he compares favorably with a number of players taken much earlier in the draft. Astute bet by Chiarelli.

    Gee, I wonder how upset the mouth breathers will be about Chiarelli pulling the trigger on that trade if Marody doesn’t pan out.

  136. Jethro Tull says:

    Ryan,

    Why is every post of yours lately an “I told you so” post?

    Discretion is the better part of valour.

    You should bet on your predictions. They’re almost Cassandra like…..

  137. Wilde says:

    GMB3: Within 2 5v5 points of Kyle Connor? Where are you finding his 5v5 production? He had an incredible amount of primary points during his draft year according to prospect-stats, but I’m unable to find his 5v5 stats

    go to his year and put a filter of Age is less than 18

    once you’re at his year, to the right of the text “2014-15 USHL Skaters” at the top of the screen is a dark grey box with that looks like this

    [ All v 2014-15 v ]

    click on the “All” and it will give you a drop-down menu of game stats, pick 5v5.

    you’ll see it’s a 16yo Kieffer Bellows (I still believe in him) then Kyle Connor, then Cooper.

    it’s true, almost the entire point differential between KC and CM is from 5v4 points – KC’s 24 to CM’s 12

  138. GMB3 says:

    Pretty similar stats to Jake Guentzel as well. Without knowing much about usage, I’d say he would make a decent comparable to Marody.

    Marody’s stint with academic probation and mono muddies the waters a bit, but he is certainly within shouting distance in their draft years and d+3

  139. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Again, we are talking about Pontus Aberg who was available on waivers yesterday/today.

    We are one injury to a Nuge a Rattie a Yamamoto a Lucic from Drake Caggulia being in the top 6 and Brad Malone from being on the roster. I would prefer Pontus Aberg to be cover for this type of situation.I feel he’s a better fit for the top 6 and more of an NHL player than Brad Malone.

    I’m not sure how mentioning preferring Aberg over Malone as the first call-up is harassment.

    I have Brad Malone ample cudos on Saturday evening watching him play in Bakersfield – he had a great night.

    If you feel I am a “bad fan”, feel free to ignore me.

    P.S. I’m quite certain Brad Malone isn’t feeling harassed by my posts that mention him.

    Man, if my posting regarding Brad Malone makes me a “bad fan”, I wonder had “bad of a fan” so many on here that spew vitriol at Caggulia, McLellan, Chiarelli, Lucic, etc. are.

    They must be sub-fans.

    You post your opinion relentlessly, it’s part of you and it’s well received. When that compulsiveness spills over to an individual, it becomes an attack. You have been on about “the likes of Malone” since May. Try doing the same to a person in your field of law, see what happens.

  140. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure, fair enough, however, my point still stands, I think.

    I believe Aberg could have (should have) been re-acquired to add more depth and to shelter.

    He could have been sent to the minors and his cap hit fully buried.Zero effect on anything except Katz’s pocket-book and a spot on the 50.

    As of now, one forward injury hits and this team is calling up Brad Malone and then Patrick Russell, neither of which are NHL players.I guess they could call-up a rookie pro in Tyler Benson or Cooper Marody but I think we can all agree on what the best league is for those players.

    What if its Nuge that gets hurt or Yamamoto?Now we likely have Caggulia in the top 6 – I’d prefer having Aberg for that spot.

    Anyways, its not the end of the world (well, until our lineup has Caggulia, Chaisson and Malone playing because a few injuries pile up).

    It could possibly be there’s something we don’t know about this player. That you only know once you get him into the dressing room or practice ice.

  141. digger50 says:

    GMB3: You’re kind of a douchebag, eh?

    You’re in good company then. I can remember last year as you enjoyed throwing out the insults to those you call “mouth breathers”

  142. Wilde says:

    Another part of Marody’s production is he was traded from Muskegon team where he had 9 pts in 14 games to Sioux Falls where he hit 49 pts in 38 games

    (From what I can tell, Muskegon had an older team than Sioux Falls – maybe they didn’t have a top six spot for him?)

    That’s 1.29 PPG from 0.64, and we can speculate that avg. TOI was at play.

    Strongly believe we’re looking at a player here and the amateur acquisition part of the team is giving indications that we have some strong yields coming up.

    Need to put everything else in place in order to take advantage of it.

  143. GMB3 says:

    Also interestingly enough, Taylor Camarratta had an absurd draft year in the USHL. 93 points in 59 games. Only 5’7 and 150 pounds. Was drafted by the Islanders in the third round but his offense never progressed at the University of Minnesota and he spent last season in the ECHL

  144. GMB3 says:

    digger50: You’re in good company then. I can rememberlast year as you enjoyed throwing out the insults to those you call “mouth breathers”

    I’m sorry I don’t share the same size fetish or love of Eric Gryba as you. 🙂

  145. digger50 says:

    GMB3: I’m sorry I don’t share the same size fetish or love of Eric Gryba as you.

    No, it’s just you are another internet jack ass who can hurl insults and hide behind thier computer. It’s your thing and it’s the new world.

  146. Wilde says:

    GMB3:
    Also interestingly enough, Taylor Camarratta had an absurd draft year in the USHL. 93 points in 59 games. Only 5’7 and 150 pounds. Was drafted by the Islanders in the third round but his offense never progressed at the University of Minnesota and he spent last season in the ECHL

    This guy’s history is really weird.

    27pts in 39 games is quite good for a freshman, so it wasn’t just the USHL draft year heater.

    It looks like he played 2nd line out the gate, then played 3rd line in his last two seasons?

    His 16-17 year old season, as a May birthday, is nuts too.

    I’ll do some digging, but at this point I’d say he’s worth an AHL contract.

  147. GMB3 says:

    digger50: No, it’s just you are another internet jack ass who can hurl insults and hide behind thier computer. It’s your thing and it’s the new world.

    For one, I was raised under the impression that sticks and stones make break my bones, but words will never hurt me. Is that cliche old-timey enough for you? I figured that sentiment also counted for the internet. Especially when the words are generally ‘glass banger’ and ‘mouth breather’.

    Surprised you haven’t told me to get off your lawn yet.

    I’ll try and be nicer.

  148. Wilde says:

    Can’t find anything that suggests injury/attitude issues.

    Same coach through all four U of Minnesota seasons.

    Reports talk about hands but not feet, gonna guess he’s got that working against him – I think there’s a market inefficiency in non-burner smaller guys.

    Also looks like he didn’t improve his shot as he started to have an extremely lopsided goal to assist ratio.

  149. GMB3 says:

    Wilde:
    Can’t find anything that suggests injury/attitude issues.

    Same coach through all four U of Minnesota seasons.

    Reports talk about hands but not feet, gonna guess he’s got that working against him – I think there’s a market inefficiency in non-burner smaller guys.

    Also looks like he didn’t improve his shot as he started to have an extremely lopsided goal to assist ratio.

    It’s truly strange how a player can be so dominant at a lower level, show plenty of promise as a freshman, then just fade into obscurity. I find it hard to believe a guy can be that slow and put up those kind of numbers in the USHL.

  150. Wilde says:

    GMB3: It’s truly strange how a player can be so dominant at a lower level, show plenty of promise as a freshman, then just fade into obscurity. I find it hard to believe a guy can be that slow and put up those kind of numbers in the USHL.

    Yep, I’d be all over targets like this with the state of Bakersfield in regards to forward skill.

    (I am and will continue to bang the drum on this endlessly, if your org’s strength is drafting you need to have scorers to play your prospects with)

    Much rather have guys like him on AHL tryouts than guys who never produced, even in junior.

  151. hunter1909 says:

    GMB3: It’s truly strange how a player can be so dominant at a lower level, show plenty of promise as a freshman, then just fade into obscurity. I find it hard to believe a guy can be that slow and put up those kind of numbers in the USHL.

    As a matter of fact this is common in the arts. Like rats, humans hit walls in their development and at each stage several drop out and or fail to make the grade.

  152. hunter1909 says:

    GMB3: It’s truly strange how a player can be so dominant at a lower level, show plenty of promise as a freshman, then just fade into obscurity. I find it hard to believe a guy can be that slow and put up those kind of numbers in the USHL.

    This is the first time I’ve heard of the USHL as a hotbed of superior skating.

  153. GMB3 says:

    hunter1909: This is the first time I’ve heard of the USHL as a hotbed of superior skating.

    I find it strange you drew this conclusion from my post

  154. GMB3 says:

    Wilde: Yep, I’d be all over targets like this with the state of Bakersfield in regards to forward skill.

    (I am and will continue to bang the drum on this endlessly, if your org’s strength is drafting you need to have scorers to play your prospects with)

    Much rather have guys like him on AHL tryouts than guys who never produced, even in junior.

    I agree with this sentiment. Scoring is the hardest thing to do in hockey, yet in the NHL draft we have a long history of players who have put up impressive numbers yet get passed over for a variety of biases and “hockey men” axioms. As a franchise the Oilers have continually looked more at “player types” and evoked a process of wishful thinking and a misguided belief in our development system when drafting players who have a chance at having any impact on the scoresheet.

    Despite this, for whatever reason we seem to have had an affinity for drafting playmakers over shooters.

    For me a great Oilers example of a player who produced offensively in junior and turned out to be a reasonably effective bottom sixer with some offensive ability is Ethan Moreau. You don’t need to draft checking wingers in junior to find role players in your bottom six. Shoot for the moon as often as possible.

  155. Wilde says:

    Who does Ryan Suzuki have to kill to get ranked in the top 10

  156. GMB3 says:

    Alexis Lafrieniere almost equaled Filip Zadina’s production in his draft year as a 16 year old. That is wild stuff.

    Shaping up to be a nice year for the WHL at the draft.

  157. Richard S.S. says:

    Keeping Jerabek as suggested says he’s a better Defender than Bear and Bouchard, which I don’t agree with. Keeping/reacquiring Aberg as suggested occupies at least an AHL Roster spot or he’s a better player than Rattie, Caggiula and Yamamoto, which I disagree with both.

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50: You post your opinion relentlessly, it’s part of you and it’s well received. When that compulsiveness spills over to an individual, it becomes an attack. You have been on about “the likes of Malone” since May.Try doing the same to a person in your field of law, see what happens.

    What does posting my opinion on things related to the Oilers have to do with my career? Those are non-relateable situations.

    I also post my opinion relentlessly on (a) the 2RD being the biggest offseason need to fix (b) not trading the likes of the 10th overall or Puljujarvi for an aging scoring winger (c) the Koskinen contract being egregious (d) the need for value contracts going forward and not trading for older UFA type players (e) that the McDavid contract was not a huge value contract at the time of signing (f) acquiring Justin Faulk not actually making the team better (g) etc.

    I have nothing against Brad Malone, he’s a very good AHL player and I”m happy for him to be on the Condors. I believe he is not an NHL player and he is currently the 1st call-up scheduled and, to me, acquiring a player like Aberg for free with the ability to bury his cap hit to make Brad Malone the 2nd NHL call-up was a solid option – in order to make that point, while the discussion was on Pontus Aberg, I mentioned Brad Malone.

    The defence is also a hot topic of conversation – I may have to mention Justin Faulk again soon as well – I truly hope he doesn’t fell harassed or that I become even worse of a fan.

  159. €√¥£€^$ says:

    tileguy:
    If anybody wonders what my avatar is about, and would like your head to explode have a peek at this concert held in Finland. Be patient with it, give it a couple of minutes to get going. A couple of wines before hand (or a puff) will enhance the experience.
    https://rutube.ru/video/9643c3de65f52640805872a5347adcbe/

    I don’t partake in either, but wow, just…wow.

    Thanks Tileguy, I appreciated it very much!

  160. hunter1909 says:

    GMB3,

    Late night. Reading comprehension deficit.

  161. Professor Q says:

    GMB3:
    Alexis Lafrieniere almost equaled Filip Zadina’s production in his draft year as a 16 year old. That is wild stuff.

    Shaping up to be a nice year for the WHL at the draft.

    But he’s in the Q?

  162. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Keeping Jerabek as suggested says he’s a better Defender than Bear and Bouchard, which I don’t agree with.Keeping/reacquiring Aberg as suggested occupies at least an AHL Roster spot or he’s a better player than Rattie, Caggiula and Yamamoto, which I disagree with both.

    There are a number of different ways to look at all of these transactions.

    1) Even if Jarabek isn’t a better “defender” than Bear or Bouchard – keeping him allows Bear and Bouchard to develop in the appropriate leagues helping them become better defenders in the up coming years.

    2) What is wrong with Aberg taking an AHL spot. There is no roster limit in the AHL and there are many players that play that aren’t actual NHL prospects – there is plenty of room for him in the AHL. Also, not acquiring him b/c he’s not “better than” Rattie, Caggulia or Yamamoto presumes there will be no injuries. We are accumulating some real prospects to play for the Condors but they should stay playing for the Condors when injuries hit the big team – acquiring a guy like Aberg for free would help allow this to happen.

  163. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GMB3: You’re kind of a douchebag, eh?

    He pays his lost wagers off in full though.

    I respect that.

  164. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull,

    You should bet on your predictions

    He does.

    I got a nice dinner at XIX and a $300 bottle of Bunnahabhain 25yr when I won.

  165. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Glovjuice: Bushmills 16 year

    Yup.

    Like the Tullamore Dew, stay away from the younger ones.

  166. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: FTFY.

    You’re not the first person to think that the results of a wager should color the odds at the time of the wager.

    You also won’t be the last.

    That’s not the correct way to evaluate wagers though.

    It reminds me of when I used to play a lot of tournament poker and guys would fold AA pre-flop to heavy betting because they lost a few times doing that so they avoid a seriously +EV situation because of previous results.

    Vor explained it best in the thread.

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