Once in a Lifetime (same as it ever was)

As the Oilers are on this damnable ‘one game a week’ schedule, it’s pretty easy for your local blogger to run out of ideas for the daily news. Fortunately, the NHL lockouts have allowed me the opportunity to make chicken salad out of all manner of, ahem, things. Today we’re going to talk about what we would like to get out of this season.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Special offer is here, less than $3 a month!

  • New Black Dog: Edmonton’s future is bright, but there are all kinds of questions in the present.
  • New Lowetide: Evan Bouchard survives first game.
  • New Lowetide: Ryan McLeod takes demotion in stride, while a Condo of Condors impress on opening weekend.
  • Jonathan Willis: On AHL opening night, Caleb Jones and friends make it clear they want NHL jobs.
  • Lowetide: Orange, white and blue October: In 1979, the Oilers rocked the NHL.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: After the death of his father, Sweden trip holds special significance for Adam Larsson, and one of his opponents.
  • Scott Wheeler: How the eye test fails to properly evaluate Evan Bouchard.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why the Nuge-McDavid-Rattie line has been so successful.
  • Lowetide: The 2018-19 Oilers are in a period of transition.
  • Jonathan Willis: How worried should the Oilers be about the preseason struggles of Milan Lucic and Leon Draisaitl?

The Edmonton Oilers need something else that makes them famous. Connor McDavid was a gift from the hockey Gods, there wasn’t any magic beyond providing him with ice, a stick and a schedule of games. What else are the Edmonton Oilers? That’s the number one priority for this hockey team over the next several months. There are other things I’d like to see happen before April.

ON-ICE ITEMS

  • One of Leon Draisaitl or Jesse Puljujarvi driving a line that outscores opponents at 5-on-5. I have Leon scoring 25 goals and Pulju 18, but that isn’t as important as outscoring while each is on the ice. Edmonton needs to have something it can count on aside from McDavid’s line.
  • A fourth defenseman who can join Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson and Darnell Nurse as a legit top 4D option. I’m hopeful it is Matt Benning, but it could be Evan Bouchard or Ethan Bear or a mid-season addition. Would love to see that piece in place by next fall.
  • A 20-goal scorer not named McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Draisaitl. It could be Puljujarvi, Milan Lucic, or maybe Ty Rattie surprises. I think it would be great to see someone else reach 20.
  • Four lines the coach can trust. Todd McLellan likes to run four lines so it’s important find find 12 forwards who can be trusted. Tall order.
  • At least one goaltender not named Cam Talbot to take a big step forward from current established levels. If Talbot flourishes, perhaps a shorter term deal at a reasonable number (I know, impossible).
  • Improvement from both special teams.
  • An overall goal differential that exceeds +10.
  • A 50-goal season for Kirill Maksimov.

OFF-ICE ITEMS

  1. Some kind of direction in regard to the coaching staff, be it replacing McLellan with Gulutzan or bringing back the group as currently constructed. Coaching turnover can be good but I do believe the MacT staff remains the class of this century. That was a long time ago.
  2. Similar to the coaching, I’d like to get some clarity on the management structure. Peter Chiarelli’s management group has established what I believe to be a solid drafting staff, and that’s a positive. On the other hand, the wild summers of 2015 and 2016 have severely limited the club’s ability to manipulate much of the roster. I think the Oilers have probably one major management move before McDavid gets antsy, and that might come summer 2019.
  3. I’d like to see the organization keep their powder dry through the entire season, holding on to all draft picks and the top prospects, dealing off quality only if a real contender. Trading veterans at the deadline might benefit if a bigger contract can be moved (if it comes that).
  4. If the Oilers are in contention for the Pacific Division title at the deadline, I would like to see Chiarelli be more aggressive this time. Again, no trading of the top prospects (Evan Bouchard, Kailer Yamamoto) but something beyond the top tier or even a second-round pick is possible if the team has a chance to push deep into the second season. I would like to see that happen.

PRONMAN’S 2019

Corey Pronman released his 2019 early list today (here) and it’s a fascinating read. I was curious about where he would rank Kirby Dach, Dylan Cozens and Bowen Byram, and was surprised with each ranking. Fascinating read. I know you don’t like the idea, but as we discussed last week, the current Oilers remain in a period of transition. You don’t need to memorize the list, but it’s good to know there are so many ‘elites or better’ on the way.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

  • On the road to: Sweden to play NJD (Expected: 0-0-1) (Actual: 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Boston, NYR, Winnipeg (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Boston, Nashville, Pittsburgh, Washington (Expected 1-3-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Nashville, Chicago (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Minnesota (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 3-6-2, 8 points in 11 games 
  • Current results: 0-1-0, 0 points after one game

The first game of the season was poor, and proved the team still has the same issues that plagued a year ago. Cam Talbot, while solid, let in a goal or two you can’t allow and still win. With Connor McDavid on the ice at 5-on-5, the team was 1-0 in goals and were 50 percent Corsi for in the New Jersey game. Off ice at 5-on-5? Goals were 0-3 and 37.5 Corsi. High dangers were a disaster with (1-4) McDavid and without (1-6) McDavid, but that’s one game (the captain’s HDSC’s were 358-292 a year ago).

The schedule is a bear, but if you’ll notice there are several teams in the Pacific Division off to poor starts, Edmonton has a chance here if the club can grab something close to 11 points in the 11 October games. I’m never going to bet against a team that contains Connor McDavid, and that’s a fact. Edmonton needs some of those items above (Leon, Pulju, RHD) to come through pdq.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back, baby! A full boat of fabulous guests and two town teams in the ditch! Holy hell the joint will be rocking this morning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. Oilers lose the opener but it’s how they lost (same old same old) that is such a concern.
  • John Sigler, Saintswire, USA Today. A big win for the Saints and an historic evening fro Drew Brees.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. The Eskimos are absolutely in trouble now, we’ll talk about the CFL weekend and early NHL season.
  • Matt Derrick, ChiefsDigest.com. Andy Reid has morphed into a genius. Or something.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

194 Responses to "Once in a Lifetime (same as it ever was)"

  1. 106 and 106 says:

    Hey LT,

    Can you add a section to your post game review that includes the team with McDavid and without?

    Appears to be the biggest theme of the last 3 years.

    Also, one game a week sucksssssssss.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I’m still hoping for the best that it doesn’t turn out like always.

    Losing Todd after the early November EC roadie (I think they get back Nov 9th) might be a good thing for the group.

  3. 106 and 106 says:

    The Friedman Rule states if a team is outside the playoffs by 4 points, the year will be what you say LT.

    October 9th: 2 points out.

  4. 106 and 106 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Losing the coach is a good thing?

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    “A fourth defenseman who can join Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson and Darnell Nurse as a legit top 4D option. I’m hopeful it is Matt Benning, but it could be Evan Bouchard or Ethan Bear or a mid-season addition. Would love to see that piece in place by next fall.”.

    ———————————
    This, to me, the 2RD spot, was the biggest hole going in to the off-season. I think management acknowledged it as well but they also “admitted” that Bouchard dropping to 10 dropped their urgency to acquire “a d-man”.

    That is good for the future but bad for now. Bad for now as neither Bouchard nor Bear are ready for the 2RD spot (nor will they be this year) and Benning has not proven to be able to even tread water at that spot. Good for the future as I have little dobut that, in time, Bouchard will be at least a 2RD if not a 1RD (knocking Larsson down to the 2RD spot) – we will fill that spot internally, in time, without having to spend acquisition assets or free agency type cap.

  6. Primetime says:

    GMB3:

    For me a great Oilers example of a player who produced offensively in junior and turned out to be a reasonably effective bottom sixer with some offensive ability is Ethan Moreau. You don’t need to draft checking wingers in junior to find role players in your bottom six. Shoot for the moon as often as possible.

    Just wanted to comment on this from the end of the last thread.

    Totally agree that it is smarter to draft the best possible/highest skilled hockey players and let them evolve, rather than trying to draft a role player in junior to be a role player in the pros. A few other Oiler specific examples of 1st round talents turning into effective role players would be Reasoner, Cleary, and Cogliano…

    The problem is, these guys don’t appear to turn into role players on the team that originally drafted them.

  7. Jethro Tull says:

    “Cam Talbot, while solid, let in a goal or two you can’t allow and still win.”

    You and I have very different opinions of what solid goal-tending is.

    On trades, it’s one thing that has never changed here; that we’ll agree we have a poor prospect pool, outside one or two, but think that other teams will send us NHL quality players in return for said poor prospects. In case another team ‘unlocks’ them, then the scouts who were idiots for drafting a bust are now genius’ who should be listened to more and the GM is an idiot for trading away a player that was either surplus to need or spinning tires.

    Keeping powder dry when things are bad only works if you have tangible evidence that things will improve without change outside of natural progression of the players. Otherwise, you are expecting results to differ without stimulus, in which case, you will set the scientific world ablaze.

    Everything can be reduced to processes. You put something in one end and get something out the other with different operations and controls being added or subtracted along the way. If you’re rolling a bowling ball straight along the gutter and can’t figure out why you’re not getting strikes without figuring out that rolling it down the center of the lane greatly increases your chances of success but you’re expecting that to change any day now without doing anything different…..

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think Lucic scores in and around the 20 goal mark – could be higher.

    Jesse should find the range as well once he’s moved up to 2RW.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    50 goals led the OHL last year – high hopes for Maksimov!

  10. Jethro Tull says:

    On the plus side, my pool team is 4th and I have mostly Oilers on it and they’ve only played one game.

    And maybe there’s a few of WG’s fancy stat darlings on there, just because! 😉

    Thnx WG!

    (Hope i haven’t jinxed myself)

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    “Cam Talbot, while solid, let in a goal or two you can’t allow and still win. ”

    To me, if a tender lets in a soft goal or two, he was not solid notwithstanding the rest of the saves made.

  12. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    106 and 106:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Losing the coach is a good thing?

    If they play in BOS like they did in NJD it might be.

  13. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If they play in BOS like they did in NJD it might be.

    wish they lost the coach and GM a year ago

  14. dustrock says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    “Cam Talbot, while solid, let in a goal or two you can’t allow and still win. ”

    To me, if a tender lets in a soft goal or two, he was not solid notwithstanding the rest of the saves made.

    Not sure I agree with that. I mean, that’s been the knock on Talbot going back to his Rangers days – he’ll let in a softie on a fairly regular basis but otherwise is extremely solid.

    The biggest issue is the timing of the softie – Oilers on a Eurotrip, bored of sightseeing, want to get the season started, and 1 minute into the game they’re down 1-0 on the first shot of the game.

    If he lets in a softie but otherwise has 35 saves, it’s not as big a deal.

    Timing is everything.

  15. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If they play in BOS like they did in NJD it might be.

    Yeah, I will wait 10 games before doing any serious armchair QBing but with a brand new coaching staff besides McLellan, I certainly expected more.

    If he can’t get the players focused, he can’t get the players focused. That might not be his fault, but it’s his job.

  16. ArmchairGM says:

    A 50-goal season for Kirill Maksimov.

    ******************************************
    haha, nice. I was just thinking this morning how good McLeod-Maksimov could be in Bakersfield next year.

  17. Greenberg says:

    The Oilers will be 2-8 when playing Minnesota. As long as teams only have to slow down our superstar to win (it can be done), we’ll be on the wrong end of the bubble. A new coach won’t fix the essential problem and if a new GM undoes the good that Chia has done (drafting/developing), then we will be wallowing in our spots of bother. Pray that I am full of it.

  18. jtblack says:

    “PRONMAN’S 2019

    Corey Pronman released his 2019 early list today (here) and it’s a fascinating read. I was curious about where he would rank Kirby Dach, Dylan Cozens and Bowen Byram, and was surprised with each ranking. Fascinating read. I know you don’t like the idea, but as we discussed last week, the current Oilers remain in a period of transition. You don’t need to memorize the list, but it’s good to know there are so many ‘elites or better’ on the way.”

    This is a deep draft. I pray that Peter doesn’t go all 2015 on us and move the 1st or 2nd … he also has 2 – 3rd rounders this year. If Edm keeps those 4 picks, and possibly adds if the season is a sh*t show; it will set up well for the club long term ..

  19. jtblack says:

    LadiesloveSmid: wish they lost the coach and GM a year ago

    Like perhaps after laying a tri-fecta of 5-0 losses on Home ice around X Mas

  20. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Jethro Tull:
    “Cam Talbot, while solid, let in a goal or two you can’t allow and still win.”

    You and I have very different opinions of what solid goal-tending is.

    – It is an interesting choice of words: to me solid goaling means you gave the team a chance to win.

    – The only way the Oil win that game was to score a lot more goals against NJ, because Talbot let in multiple goals that he should not have (and first shot, where he was down early, and did not challenge the goalie, was too close to net, and most commentators said/saw the same thing)

    – I don’t see how a goalie can be solid, yet letting in goals you can’t allow and win

    – Talbot’s performance wasn’t kind of not given the appropriate scrutiny was my take: but it provided an opportunity to talk about the lack of Non-McD scoring, how slow Lucic was (despite 2 points!), the poor coaching, the PP, which was 1-4, etc

    – There was some great examinations about the structure, PP, PK etc, post-game and I enjoyed reading the different opinions, and what weight different posters put on various things

    – But if Talbot keeps letting in first shot goals, and more softies, we just aren’t going to win.

    – You weren’t good goaliering when you post sub .850 on 27 shots

    – In 2 PK, the team allows 1 shot, and you let it in

    – My belief is that by far, the single variable that cascaded through the loss was poor goalering, that effected the play of the team.

    – A good analogy for this is putting: you make a 5 footer after some spotty play, and that often sorts you out for the round. You miss that first putt, and your kind of scrambling

    – The goalie, the players, the commentators, the coach all know Talbot has to be better, or else nothing else matters IMO.

    – That first shot (and the next few softies) were killers…

    – Buffalo beat Vegas, Sharks got clobbered by NYI, Jets got blown out, Canadians hammerd Pitts,

    – Anyway, it’s going to be a long season: losses are going to be hard to take…

  21. russ99 says:

    LadiesloveSmid: wish they lost the coach and GM a year ago

    Meh. How badly do we want Gretzky and Messier/Coffey.

    I’d love to see changes if we hire smart hockey people, but you know it’s going to be old boy fest and relive the 80s again if Katz has anything to say about it.

    For me, that’s the surest ticket out of town for Connor.

  22. Lowetide says:

    106 and 106:
    The Friedman Rule states if a team is outside the playoffs by 4 points, the year will be what you say LT.

    October 9th: 2 points out.

    Can’t really do that after one game, though. 🙂

  23. russ99 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – It is an interesting choice of words: to me solid goaling means you gave the team a chance to win.

    – The only way the Oil win that game was to score a lot more goals against NJ, because Talbot let in multiple goals that he should not have (and first shot, where he was down early, and did not challenge the goalie, was too close to net, and most commentators said/saw the same thing)

    – I don’t see how a goalie can be solid, yet letting in goals you can’t allow and win

    – Talbot’s performance wasn’t kind of not given the appropriate scrutiny was my take: but it provided an opportunity to talk about the lack of Non-McD scoring, how slow Lucic was (despite 2 points!), the poor coaching, the PP, which was 1-4, etc

    – There was some great examinations about the structure, PP, PK etc, post-game and I enjoyed reading the different opinions, and what weight different posters put on various things

    – But if Talbot keeps letting in first shot goals, and more softies, we just aren’t going to win.

    – You weren’t good goaliering when you post sub .850 on 27 shots

    – In 2 PK, the team allows 1 shot, and you let it in

    – My belief is that by far, the single variable that cascaded through the loss was poor goalering, that effected the play of the team.

    – A good analogy for this is putting: you make a 5 footer after some spotty play, and that often sorts you out for the round.You miss that first putt, and your kind of scrambling

    – The goalie, the players, the commentators, the coach all know Talbot has to be better, or else nothing else matters IMO.

    – That first shot (and the next few softies) were killers…

    – Buffalo beat Vegas, Sharks got clobbered by NYI, Jets got blown out, Canadians hammerd Pitts,

    – Anyway, it’s going to be a long season: losses are going to be hard to take…

    It’s like last year all over again. If a goalie is hung out to dry repeatedly, he’s only going to be able to go to the well so much.

    Not sure how you can call a goal soft when the offensive player has an ocean of space from the far circle directly to the net.

    We need better team defense, not the whole 80s score as much as we can and Ranford/Fuhr/Moog will bail us out at the back.

  24. Jaxon says:

    Edmonton needs to have something it can count on aside from McDavid’s line.

    Agreed.

    EDIT: ****optimistic post warning****

    That is why I think they should be loading up the 2nd line.

    Nugent-Hopkins / Driasiatl / Puljujarvi – give another line the best chance to outscore the opposition

    McDavid will outscore the opposition with anyone and Rattie has shown some chemistry that I don’t think he’d have with anyone else. Put Khaira in the Maroon spot. He has more speed than Maroon, so he might even be better.

    Khaira / McDavid / Rattie

    That leaves Strome centering a 3rd line that can saw off competition and possibly score a bit. I don’t think they’ll ever put Lucic lower than 3LW, and that might be the right play if he has some skill with him. Strome and Yamamoto have enough skill, and against slightly easier competition this might be a good spot for them.

    Lucic / Strome / Yamamoto

    That leaves Caggiula (press box please), Chiasson (solid), Brodziak (likely 4C), Kassian, and Rieder(playing below his ability but definitely able to outscore the competition here). I don’t mind Kassian at 4R, but he hasn’t been great for a while now and he costs a lot there. I’d go with:

    Rieder / Brodziak / Chiasson

    I think they’d be better off trading Caggiula and Kassian (and their $3.45M in cap hits).

    I’m also hoping Jones continues to dominate in the AHL and gets some callups this season for experience. I’d like them to get some looks at him before season’s end so they know what they have before Russell’s 10 team trade list kicks in. If they trust Jones, then trade him away for whatever. Possibly Sekera, too, depending on how he comes back (will injury be behind him?). If Bear, Benning, or Bouchard can step into the 2RD spot, that will mean absolutely everything for this team.

    Benson and Marody should be competing for a spot by the end of the season and next fall. McLeod will join them in that regard next fall. Marody moving into Brodziak’s spot would be huge. Benson could push Rieder to the right side. Khaira might move back to 4C next season, too. Benson on LW in the top 9, McLeod in the AHL next fall, working for a callup.

    I like where the Oilers are heading. I have a lot of faith in Marody, Benson and Jones. And McLeod a year later. The B’s on the right side look promising, too (Benning, Bear, Bouchard, Berglund) If, one turns into a solid 2RD and one into a solid NHL 3RHD, then the Oilers are pretty set for some time.

    Goalering is still a concern. If Talbot and Koskinen aren’t the answer, they are in big trouble as there is a big age gap for when to expect the next wave to be NHL ready. Goalies take a long time to develop and Starrett (the next closest in age) may not turn into an NHLer. Skiner and Wells are only 19 and 20, so they are probably a long way away. They would have been better looking to that 24 to 26 year old range this summer.

  25. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    russ99: It’s like last year all over again. If a goalie is hung out to dry repeatedly, he’s only going to be able to go to the well so much.

    Not sure how you can call a goal soft when the offensive player has an ocean of space from the far circle directly to the net.

    We need better team defense, not the whole 80s score as much as we can and Ranford/Fuhr/Moog will bail us out at the back.

    – I guess its a difference of opinion

    – Regardless, there is no doubt that that first goal, on the first shot, whether it was the goalies fault (my belief), or the structure, and poor positioning (sure maybe a little, but breakdowns happen all the time, Goalie had to be better IMO)

    – If I were to assign blame: 85% goalie for being out of position, 15% miscues/bad structure, being rusty, etc. Sure there is blame all around.

    – But I know for certain that that first shot goal effected the team greatly. Everyone has to be better for sure: we just have different takes on assigning blame and the effect the result had on team

    – And how is 26 5×5 shots being “hung out to dry”?

  26. Woogie63 says:

    The Oilers have 3 acceptable 3RHD and 0 acceptable 2RHD … DON’t keep your powder dry!

  27. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    “Cam Talbot, while solid, let in a goal or two you can’t allow and still win. ”

    To me, if a tender lets in a soft goal or two, he was not solid notwithstanding the rest of the saves made.

    Single events can have massive impact on a single game, while also being single events. How many goalies have the Oilers thrown away because they were thinking in the now?

  28. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: Single events can have massive impact on a single game, while also being single events. How many goalies have the Oilers thrown away because they were thinking in the now?

    – I agree with this a lot. I’ve got a longer post on Koski, and back-up success (or lack thereof), that the OIL has experienced, and what I believe they need to do for Koski to succeed

    *hint: it’s not thinking in the now!*

  29. jtblack says:

    Jaxon,

    “I like where the Oilers are heading.” ..

    I think almost across the board – posters, fan, etc like where the Oilers are heading. The Problem is that we are in YEAR 4 (man time flies) of the Connor McDavid Era.

    McDavid has held up his end of the bargain. The rest has not. If this year is another lost season, we are onto year 5 … and then 6 ..

    In 2014 and 2015 the Oilers gutted the heart of the draft order and they are paying for it now. The direction is good, but let’s say for a minute Yammy and Bouchard get sent down and back. Next year we will have 3 or 4 rookies in the lineup. Very teams do well with that many newbies in the lineup. So it COULD be another year of being patient …

  30. FULilman says:

    The positives: Lucic looked like our best forward (Connor aside) on opening night.
    The negatives: Lucic looked like our best forward (Connor aside) on opening night.

    It is a great thing for this team if Lucic can keep up those performances but is awful for the team if he is looking like one of the best. Need to find some stronger balance there for sure.

    PS: I have many Oilers games for sale for this season if anyone is interested. If approved, I will post a list for people to look at. Just wanted to make sure it is ok with Lowetide first? Thanks all.

  31. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: Single events can have massive impact on a single game, while also being single events. How many goalies have the Oilers thrown away because they were thinking in the now?

    I agree, but multiple single events (?) over multtiple games build a case.

    And there is no guarantee that DD turns out Vezina candidate whilst playing for the Oil. (The only decent goalie I can think of that we flushed.)

  32. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: Single events can have massive impact on a single game, while also being single events. How many goalies have the Oilers thrown away because they were thinking in the now?

    I saw Dubnyk and the Wild at the Xcel center on Saturday night. Glad we sent that soft goal bum out of town

  33. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    But how much of an upgrade is Gulutzan over TMc (if at all)? Shouldn’t we aim higher?

    Who is likely to be available in the upcoming off season? Do you have a preference (and if so, why)? Coach Q? Knoblauch? Oates? Keefe? Weight?

  34. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jtblack,

    Agree wholeheartedly. We need to hang on to our picks, and perhaps acquire another few, in the 2019 draft. The amateur scouting department is finally trending in the right direction. Give them some rope and let them build up a solid foundation of youth to support the core

  35. Jaxon says:

    jtblack:
    Jaxon,

    “I like where the Oilers are heading.” ..

    I think almost across the board – posters, fan, etc like where the Oilers are heading.The Problem is that we are in YEAR 4 (man time flies) of the Connor McDavid Era.

    McDavid has held up his end of the bargain.The rest has not.If this year is another lost season, we are onto year 5 … and then 6 ..

    In 2014 and 2015 the Oilers gutted the heart of the draft order and they are paying for it now.The direction is good, but let’s say for a minute Yammy and Bouchard get sent down and back.Next year we will have 3 or 4 rookies in the lineup. Very teams do well with that many newbies in the lineup.So it COULD be another year of being patient …

    Yeah, wasting McDavid years is never good optics, but if winning a Cup is the ultimate goal, the team needs to keep looking toward the 2019-2020 to 2023-2024 era. Those years will provide their best chance of winning. Anything that doesn’t work toward that goal is near-sighted in my opinion. They could have pretty good years right to 2026 as well, but I think their best chance to win a cup is probably 2022-2023. I think the core of the team will be in their prime, early career pros, or young veteran stages of their careers.

    Not sure if you’ve checked this out when I posted it w while ago, but the career development of these players line up nicely.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W9kRR02jI_Hfze-kDH4uRPgQao3QthQKj373RpleDnI/edit?usp=sharing

    The mostly orange (prime), with a bit of red (young vets) and yellow (solid pros) years should be their best chance.

  36. N64 says:

    “As the Oilers are on this damnable ‘one game a week’ schedule, it’s pretty easy for your local blogger to run out of ideas for the daily news”

    Fortunately we have October baseball. Most sports if you don’t earn a spot to play at a high level you won’t get to hone high level skill. But baseball has a thousand places to do that and the Brewers 38 year backup catcher and hero of the moment visited each of them with 30 minor league teams.

    @AndrewSimonMLB Oct 5
    Erik Kratz:

    – 38 years old
    – 29th round pick (2002)
    – 981 Minor League games
    – 295 MLB games for 7 different teams over 9 seasons
    – Gets a big 2-RBI hit in his postseason debut today.
    You gotta love baseball!

    @AndrewSimonMLB Oct 7
    Erik Kratz MLB hits in …
    2015: five
    2016: eight
    2017: two
    2018 NLDS: five

    @BillShaikin Oct 7
    Brewers backup C Erik Kratz, at 38, became the oldest position player to make his postseason debut since Lave Cross in 1905. “We played together in rookie ball,” Kratz joked.

    Baseball always has room for stories with long and winding arcs:

    “Kratz’s story is a tale of love and perseverance and toil, yes. Its didactic value, however, comes in his ability to balance grace with gumption: How to accept getting fired, to not burn a bridge but also stand up for yourself, and flourish in the workplace when the specter of a phone call that will uproot your wife and three children can come at any hour.”

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/09/05/erik-kratz-milwaukee-brewers-playoffs/1192969002/

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    But how much of an upgrade is Gulutzan over TMc (if at all)?Shouldn’t we aim higher?

    Who is likely to be available in the upcoming off season?Do you have a preference (and if so, why)?Coach Q?Knoblauch?Oates?Keefe?Weight?

    I liked the way CGY played under Gulutzan (PP excepted)

    Todd is in this 4th year. If this is the way the play under him in year 4 it’s time to go.

    I’m not panicking, (see my first post in this thread) but they have to play way better and have a structure that is conducive to winning.

    Stationary wingers along the boards in the dzone who look like dogs with shock collars and won’t go low to help and are never more than 3ft off the boards is ripe to be exploited by active skating Dmen.

    Chip and chase entries when you out number the defenders or have as many attackers as defenders is ripe to be exploited by active skating Dmen who get to the puck and move it before the forecheckers can arrive

    Skating your players the morning of a game is a useless expenditure of energy that many teams have eschewed.

    There are a number of issues that might not clear up if the players are working hard and doing what the coach wants them to do.

    If that happens, it’s time to move on.

  38. anjinsan says:

    What else? Chiarelli built to a Lucic, not to a McDavid, team vision — and at hard-to-believe and impossible-to-accept expense. He was so heavy handed he has nothing left to work with, only future high picks to trade away. There is only hope that the current team as composed rises to the playoffs. If they don’t, it wont be because of McLellan, who corrected the losing culture rather quickly.

  39. jtblack says:

    Jaxon,

    ” but if winning a Cup is the ultimate goal, the team needs to keep looking toward the 2019-2020 to 2023-2024 era. Those years will provide their best chance of winning. Anything that doesn’t work toward that goal is near-sighted in my opinion. ”

    +1

    I do agree with that window … just frustrating I guess .. 16/17 teased us and last year was painful .. with few upgrades made over the summer, we are betting on regression UP for

    LUCIC
    LARSSON
    KLEFBOM
    RUSSELL
    TALBOT
    LEON
    KASSIAN
    etc
    etc

    Could happen, but Game 1 just didn’t offer much evidence that it will !

  40. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    As per your comment yesterday about whether or not Barkov would be worse than Yandle trying to defend a 2 on 1 shorthanded.
    Did you see the SH goal the Panthers gave up in their opener while Barkov was trying to break up a 2 on 1?
    I love Barkov.
    But he didn’t look like he knew what he was doing on that play.

  41. tileguy says:

    N64:
    “As the Oilers are on this damnable ‘one game a week’ schedule, it’s pretty easy for your local blogger to run out of ideas for the daily news”

    Fortunately we have October baseball. Most sports if you don’t earn a spot to play at a high level you won’t get to hone high level skill. But baseball has a thousand places to do that and the Brewers 38 year hero of the moment visited each of them with 30 minor league teams.

    @AndrewSimonMLB Oct 5
    Erik Kratz:

    – 38 years old
    – 29th round pick(2002)
    – 981 Minor League games
    – 295 MLB games for 7 different teams over 9 seasons
    – Gets a big 2-RBI hit in his postseason debut today.
    You gotta love baseball!

    @AndrewSimonMLB Oct 7
    Erik Kratz MLB hits in …
    2015: five
    2016: eight
    2017: two
    2018 NLDS: five

    @BillShaikin Oct 7
    Brewers backup C Erik Kratz, at 38, became the oldest position player to make his postseason debut since Lave Cross in 1905. “We played together in rookie ball,” Kratz joked.

    Baseball always has room for stories with long and winding arcs:

    “Kratz’s story is a tale of love and perseverance and toil, yes. Its didactic value, however, comes in his ability to balance grace with gumption: How to accept getting fired, to not burn a bridge but also stand up for yourself, and flourish in the workplace when the specter of a phone call that will uproot your wife and three children can come at any hour.”

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/09/05/erik-kratz-milwaukee-brewers-playoffs/1192969002/

    Fantastic story, now my favourite players for the post season!

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    Today was a CBA mandated off-day so no updates on lines/pairings or any verbal.

    Based on yesterday, lines/pairings are shaping up to be the same as for Game 1.

  43. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Was there any mention of what the Oil travel schedule was? After the game in Sweden, did they fly direct to Boston, or did they go back to Edmonton for Canadian Thanksgiving?

    – If they are in Boston: have they had a “mini-camp” somewhere out of town?

    – If there were articles questions on that – I missed them. Would be interesting to know

    – On one hand makes sense to go to Boston: but Canadian Thanksgiving…

  44. hunter1909 says:

    106 and 106:
    The Friedman Rule states if a team is outside the playoffs by 4 points, the year will be what you say LT.

    October 9th: 2 points out.

    We’re halfway there! #optimism

  45. hunter1909 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Was there any mention of what the Oil travel schedule was? After the game in Sweden, did they fly direct to Boston, or did they go back to Edmonton?

    Apparently they’re going to be spending Saturday night in NY sitting in the deserted old Pan Am building, before flying off to Seattle first thing Sunday morning where they then take a bus to Vancouver, then from there I’m not exactly certain. Has anyone got more info?

  46. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I don’t disagree one bit, in fact I’ve silently agreed in real time as you’ve contributed these thoughts in recent threads. The magnitude of said coaching/system fails is just short of staggering when you collate it all into one post.

    But, is Gulutzan really going to be an upgrade? If yes, how so? His track record as HC isn’t exactly prodigious.

  47. flyfish1168 says:

    Unfortunately Benning cannot go down without clearing waivers. Bear by eye during preseason has looked much better than Benning. I’m thinking Matt will be on a short leash. Or hoping he is

  48. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Yes, they’ve been in Boston since the day after Gothenburg.

    Today was a CBA mandated day off, they practiced yesterday and again tomorrow. Nuge missed yesterdays session with some bumps and bruises and is expected to be back on ice tomorrow.

  49. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    50 goals led the OHL last year – high hopes for Maksimov!

    He’s on pace for 68 though!!

    #waytooearlyprorating

  50. ArmchairGM says:

    106 and 106:
    The Friedman Rule states if a team is outside the playoffs by 4 points, the year will be what you say LT.

    October 9th: 2 points out.

    Isn’t that by US Thanksgiving?

  51. ArmchairGM says:

    Woogie63:
    The Oilers have 3 acceptable 3RHD and 0 acceptable 2RHD … DON’t keep your powder dry!

    So… what do you suggest? Trading a future 1 or 2RD for a 2RD of today?

  52. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    As per your comment yesterday about whether or not Barkov would be worse than Yandle trying to defend a 2 on 1 shorthanded.
    Did you see the SH goal the Panthers gave up in their opener while Barkov was trying to break up a 2 on 1?
    I love Barkov.
    But he didn’t look like he knew what he was doing on that play.

    I missed that.

    I hope the coach sticks with it

  53. hunter1909 says:

    ArmchairGM: Isn’t that by US Thanksgiving?

    Yes.

  54. N64 says:

    tileguy: Fantastic story, now my favourite players for the post season!

    Once and only once (2013) he has been on a MLB opening days roster and still in town in September. This year the Yankees sent him to Milwaukee Brewers May 25th in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations (or a used catcher mitt).

    “If you’re 38 years old and still catching, it’s almost assuredly that you’re a very good receiver of the baseball, you have a very good handle on managing a game, you take fast at knowing hitters,” says Brewers manager Craig Counsell. “And that’s the key, I think, to longevity. To continue to get better. To not close that faucet off on getting better. And Erik’s gotten better. “That’s why he’s still in it.”

  55. ChiliChunk says:

    hunter1909: We’re halfway there! #optimism

    you are a ‘keg is half full’ kind of guy?

  56. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    “Cam Talbot, while solid, let in a goal or two you can’t allow and still win. ”

    To me, if a tender lets in a soft goal or two, he was not solid notwithstanding the rest of the saves made.

    OriginalPouzar:
    “Cam Talbot, while solid, let in a goal or two you can’t allow and still win. ”

    To me, if a tender lets in a soft goal or two, he was not solid notwithstanding the rest of the saves made.

    Talbot was hung out to dry, and,or, screened by his own team mates multiple times , he did the best based on how badly the team played in front of him. The guy was solid.

  57. Oilman99 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    But how much of an upgrade is Gulutzan over TMc (if at all)?Shouldn’t we aim higher?

    Who is likely to be available in the upcoming off season?Do you have a preference (and if so, why)?Coach Q?Knoblauch?Oates?Keefe?Weight?

    Precisely,Gultzan is not an up grade, he has won nothing during his head coaching gigs.

  58. godot10 says:

    N64:
    “As the Oilers are on this damnable ‘one game a week’ schedule, it’s pretty easy for your local blogger to run out of ideas for the daily news”

    Fortunately we have October baseball. Most sports if you don’t earn a spot to play at a high level you won’t get to hone high level skill. But baseball has a thousand places to do that and the Brewers 38 year backup catcher and hero of the moment visited each of them with 30 minor league teams.

    @AndrewSimonMLB Oct 5
    Erik Kratz:

    – 38 years old
    – 29th round pick(2002)
    – 981 Minor League games
    – 295 MLB games for 7 different teams over 9 seasons
    – Gets a big 2-RBI hit in his postseason debut today.
    You gotta love baseball!

    @AndrewSimonMLB Oct 7
    Erik Kratz MLB hits in …
    2015: five
    2016: eight
    2017: two
    2018 NLDS: five

    @BillShaikin Oct 7
    Brewers backup C Erik Kratz, at 38, became the oldest position player to make his postseason debut since Lave Cross in 1905. “We played together in rookie ball,” Kratz joked.

    Baseball always has room for stories with long and winding arcs:

    “Kratz’s story is a tale of love and perseverance and toil, yes. Its didactic value, however, comes in his ability to balance grace with gumption: How to accept getting fired, to not burn a bridge but also stand up for yourself, and flourish in the workplace when the specter of a phone call that will uproot your wife and three children can come at any hour.”

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/09/05/erik-kratz-milwaukee-brewers-playoffs/1192969002/

    “Crash” Davis gets his shot! -).

  59. who says:

    ArmchairGM: So… what do you suggest? Trading a future 1 or 2RD for a 2RD of today?

    I would trade Benning plus for an immediate upgrade. The plus would depend on what you are getting back.
    I think Bouchard and Bear will make Benning redundant by next fall.

  60. Oilman99 says:

    dustrock: Not sure I agree with that.I mean, that’s been the knock on Talbot going back to his Rangers days – he’ll let in a softie on a fairly regular basis but otherwise is extremely solid.

    The biggest issue is the timing of the softie – Oilers on a Eurotrip, bored of sightseeing, want to get the season started, and 1 minute into the game they’re down 1-0 on the first shot of the game.

    If he lets in a softie but otherwise has 35 saves, it’s not as big a deal.

    Timing is everything.

    Sorry, that opening goal was not a softie. It was a seeing eye shot off the crossbar and corner post that the guy had all day to line up because Drai and,or Lucic did not pick up their check.

  61. BONE207 says:

    Jethro Tull: I agree, but multiple single events (?) over multtiple games build a case.

    And there is no guarantee that DD turns out Vezina candidate whilst playing for the Oil.(The only decent goalie I can think of that we flushed.)

    Well, I can think of a recent example of a flushed goalie. Gustaffson. If we could have had better reflective glass behind him, flailing arm goalie would have stopped a lot more shots…ha

  62. who says:

    Oilman99:
    Talbot was hung out to dry, and,or, screened by his own team mates multiple times , he did the best based on how badly the team played in front of him. The guy was solid.

    I didn’t like goals 2 and 3. That is not my definition of solid goaltending.
    Goal 3 is completely on Talbot and continues a pattern of poor puck handling that has plagued him as an Oiler.

  63. Alpine says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I don’t disagree one bit, in fact I’ve silently agreed in real time as you’ve contributed these thoughts in recent threads.The magnitude of said coaching/system fails is just short of staggering when you collate it all into one post.

    But, is Gulutzan really going to be an upgrade?If yes, how so?His track record as HC isn’t exactly prodigious.

    For what it’s worth, he’s been Bettman .500 or better in all four seasons he’s coached and over ‘real’ .500 twice.

    His Dallas rosters were pretty bad outside of Benn, Eriksson, and Lehtenon. He took over the Stars the season after they lost Richards to FA and where Nieuwendyk made that boneheaded two for one trade where he got Goligoski by giving up James Neal and an actual better defenseman in Niskanen.

    You could say he more or less maxed out that Dallas roster as they had next to nothing on defense and only two great forwards and Benn wasn’t yet a superstar. He was able to squeeze the last bit of offense out of Michael Ryder and Ray Whitney. Todd didnt get close to that much from Cammalleri or Jokinen or even Desharnais.

    GG then made the playoffs with the Flames with .910 goaltending from Elliott and Johnson. Last year they fell apart in March. They lost 10 games that month. Todd’s team fell apart after Christmas.

    Is Gulutzan that special of a coach? I don’t really think so. Is he better than McLellan? Not much of a stretch. Glen never coached a roster as good as the post lockout (both of them) Sharks. His four seasons as a HC are about as good as McLellan’s last four years with flawed teams and probably better when you consider GG’s floor is mid to high 80s in points and Todd’s is the 70s.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99:
    Talbot was hung out to dry, and,or, screened by his own team mates multiple times , he did the best based on how badly the team played in front of him. The guy was solid.

    My comment had nothing to do with Cam Talbot’s play in game 1 but was a response to a statement that the goalie was solid despite not giving the team a chance to win – I disagree with the premise of that statement.

    Oilman99: Sorry, that opening goal was not a softie. It was a seeing eye shot off the crossbar and corner post that the guy had all day to line up because Drai and,or Lucic did not pick up their check.

    There was poor defensive coverage and awareness and a nice play by a decently skilled player – at the same time, the goalie also lost his angle (if you look at the replay, he was not square, he was off towards the right post opening up more space over his left shoulder).

    On the 2nd goal, yup Russell screened him and maybe even deflected it – it was a “terrible goal” but it was far from unsaveable and a shot goalies save all the time in the NHL.

    I don’t know who was culpable on the “miscommunication” on the third goal but Talbot was right in the middle of it.

    The team was shit and, although I wouldn’t say the goalie “was shit”, he was far from great.

  65. Rich M says:

    who: I didn’t like goals 2 and 3. That is not my definition of solid goaltending.
    Goal 3 is completely on Talbot and continues a pattern of poor puck handling that has plagued him as an Oiler.

    I would agree with this. Goals 2 & 3 were preventable and I think if you ask Talbot, he’d like to have them both back. Unfortunately, the margin of error for this team is not very big and so if we continue to see this with Talbot this year, it’s going to be a long season.

  66. Jethro Tull says:

    ArmchairGM: Isn’t that by US Thanksgiving?

    Not with this team…..

  67. jtblack says:

    CAROLINA. Good start. Is this the year??

  68. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Alpine,

    Solid take, and thanks for adding some context.

  69. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack:
    CAROLINA.Good start.Is this the year??

    Not if thats the goalering they get. If Darling can come back and give them competent goalering then yes

  70. N64 says:

    Jethro Tull: Not with this team…..

    ~ First team to be eliminated sitting in a hotel room for a week after game 1 ~

  71. leadfarmer says:

    Yakupov update.
    6 g in 9 games

  72. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I don’t disagree one bit, in fact I’ve silently agreed in real time as you’ve contributed these thoughts in recent threads.The magnitude of said coaching/system fails is just short of staggering when you collate it all into one post.

    But, is Gulutzan really going to be an upgrade?If yes, how so?His track record as HC isn’t exactly prodigious.

    He’s never been under .500 as a HC fwiw.

    *just* missed the playoffs his first year in DAL and then missed completely the next year and got the pipe.

    Had a pretty suspect Dcorps there.

    CGY went .571 and lost in the first round in his first year there with 50.5% CF and 49.3% GF 5v5

    Then last year they went 53.5% CF (3rd in NHL) and 48.2% GF, so there is an argument that he got PDO’d.

    The weird thing about last year was the way Backlund’s line’s GF% died.

    Check this out:

    Backlund CF% & GF% over the last 5 years

    Season CF%
    13/14 51.9
    14/15 45.6
    15/16 52.3
    16/17 54.7
    17/18 56.1

    Good results for a tough minutes C.

    Now, here’s his GF%:
    Season GF%
    13/14 51.4
    14/15 48.3
    15/16 56.1
    16/17 53.1
    17/18 39.1

    Last year is just bizarre.

    His best puck possession year (Tkachuk is very good with him) and a horrid GF% year with 39.1%.

    Seriously PDO’d

    This result more than any other (including their meh bottom 6 GF%) was the reason they missed the playoffs.

    So basically I like the way his teams played in CGY for the most part when I watched them and I think he probably wasn’t the problem there.

    I liked the way EDM played in 16/17.

    I chalked up last year to shitty special teams and a decimated Dcorps.

    The first game was terrible and doubt they look that bad again.

    If they keep playing that bad and the HC is in his 4th year its time to change.

  73. tileguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Yakupov update.
    6 g in 9 games

    His team has played 14 games of there 62 game schedule.

  74. Jordan says:

    Lowetide: Single events can have massive impact on a single game, while also being single events. How many goalies have the Oilers thrown away because they were thinking in the now?

    Come on LT.

    “…if you have to ask the question, you know the answer.”

  75. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    The challenge also to figure out how much of a team’s success is on the coach and how much on the GM.

    Both Calgary and Edmonton have shared some similarities:

    1) Good top line
    2) Poor production on lines 2 – 4.
    3) Non reliable backups

    I do BELIEVE coaching matters a lot. But at the end of the day, the coach has to deploy the roster his GM has put in front of him. And we can probably all agree that neither Calgary or Edmonton’s rosters, as is, from Top to Bottom would be considered as Top 10 in the League.

  76. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Alpine: For what it’s worth, he’s been Bettman .500 or better in all four seasons he’s coached and over ‘real’ .500 twice.

    His Dallas rosters were pretty bad outside of Benn, Eriksson, and Lehtenon. He took over the Stars the season after they lost Richards to FA and where Nieuwendyk made that boneheaded two for one trade where he got Goligoski by giving up James Neal and an actual better defenseman in Niskanen.

    You could say he more or less maxed out that Dallas roster as they had next to nothing on defense and only two great forwards and Benn wasn’t yet a superstar. He was able to squeeze the last bit of offense out of Michael Ryder and Ray Whitney. Todd didnt get close to that much from Cammalleri or Jokinen or even Desharnais.

    GG then made the playoffs with the Flames with .910 goaltending from Elliott and Johnson. Last year they fell apart in March. They lost 10 games that month. Todd’s team fell apart after Christmas.

    Is Gulutzan that special of a coach? I don’t really think so. Is he better than McLellan? Not much of a stretch. Glen never coached a roster as good as the post lockout (both of them) Sharks. His four seasons as a HC are about as good as McLellan’s last four years with flawed teams and probably better when you consider GG’s floor is mid to high 80s in points and Todd’s is the 70s.

    This is a better answer than mine.

  77. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    CAROLINA.Good start.Is this the year??

    I would love for this to be the year for CAR.

    Lowest cap hit roster in the NHL.

    I hope they make and win their conference.

  78. hunter1909 says:

    N64: ~ First team to be eliminated sitting in a hotel room for a week after game 1 ~

    Epic.

  79. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I would love for this to be the year for CAR.

    Lowest cap hit roster in the NHL.

    I hope they make and win their conference.

    I thought I had problems, being a a bandwagon Leafs fan.

    Whalers: Regularly bitch slapped the Oilers since the WHA.

    Hurricanes: Stole KLowe’s rightful cup from right out from under his collective nose.

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    The challenge also to figure out how much of a team’s success is on the coach and how much on the GM.

    Both Calgary and Edmonton have shared some similarities:

    1)Good top line
    2) Poor production on lines 2 – 4.
    3)Non reliable backups

    I do BELIEVE coaching matters a lot.But at the end of the day, the coach has to deploy the roster his GM has put in front of him.And we can probably all agree that neither Calgary or Edmonton’s rosters, as is, from Top to Bottom would be considered as Top 10 in the League.

    Backlund’s history at 2C (toughest minutes) is solid.

    If EDM had Backlund-Tkachuk on their 2nd line this would be a much different team.

    I thought Treliving started well as GM, but this past summer was bad imo.

    He won’t be the first GM sunk by bad taste in goalies.

    It will sink Nill eventually too and I like a lot of what he does.

  81. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909: I thought I had problems, being a a bandwagon Leafs fan.

    Whalers: Regularly bitch slapped the Oilers since the WHA.

    Hurricanes: Stole KLowe’s rightful cup from right out from under his collective nose.

    I’m a sucker for the underdog and grabbing two 1st pairing quality Dmen (De Haan, Hamilton) for good prices when 1st pair Dmen are at a premium grabbed my attention.

  82. hunter1909 says:

    jtblack: And we can probably all agree that neither Calgary or Edmonton’s rosters, as is, from Top to Bottom would be considered as Top 10 in the League.

    I have no idea about Calgary, but teams that trade Hart trophy winning wingers then whine about not having winger depth rarely, if ever go onto to become dynasties.

  83. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m a sucker for the underdog and grabbing two 1st pairing quality Dmen (De Haan, Hamilton) for good prices when 1st pair Dmen are at a premium grabbed my attention.

    You have to admit they’re a fairly cool team and would be a great franchise to play for.

  84. hunter1909 says:

    Re the Current Oilers:

    Is there anyone left to purge?(asking for a friend)

  85. leadfarmer says:

    tileguy: His team has played 14 games of there62 game schedule.

    Well he didn’t play at the beginning for an unknown reason but now is a regular

  86. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I hope they trade their first rounder away again before Mike Smith goes down. Making a bet on Mike Smith is fine. Making a bet on Mike Smith to play a whole year is dumb. Not having a capable backup behind Smith ready to take over is really dumb.
    It’s a matter of time before they are scrambling to find g help.
    Really don’t get how they didn’t top Avs offer for Grubauer

  87. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909:
    Re the Current Oilers:

    Is there anyone left to purge?(asking for a friend)

    Everybody’s going and I want to go too
    Don’t wanna take a chance with somebody new
    I did all I could and I did it right there and then
    I’ve already confessed, no need to confess again

  88. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: Everybody’s going and I want to go too
    Don’t wanna take a chance with somebody new
    I did all I could and I did it right there and then
    I’ve already confessed, no need to confess again

    “the Ballad of Lowe+MacT”

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I would love for this to be the year for CAR.

    Lowest cap hit roster in the NHL.

    I hope they make and win their conference.

    Adding Hamilton and De Haan in one off-season is a massive haul.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Backlund’s history at 2C (toughest minutes) is solid.

    If EDM had Backlund-Tkachuk on their 2nd line this would be a much different team.

    I thought Treliving started well as GM, but this past summer was bad imo.

    He won’t be the first GM sunk by bad taste in goalies.

    It will sink Nill eventually too and I like a lot of what he does.

    Trading away Hamilton was a panic move and the James Neal contract………

    I don’t know how he didn’t make a claim on Pickard…..

  91. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dicky94:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    BINGO!

    YAHTZEE!

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909: You have to admit they’re a fairly cool team and would be a great franchise to play for.

    Their new owner is interesting.

    I bet he spends money once the franchise starts producing some income.

    Eric Tulsky surviving the management shuffle (he was promoted during that time) grabbed my attention as well.

  93. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    He won’t be the first GM sunk by bad taste in goalies.

    It will sink Nill eventually too and I like a lot of what he does.

    Ben Bishop is a rather decent goaltender if he stays healthy. Nill seems to have hired a pretty good coaching staff finally. Klingberg is entering his prime and Heiskanen looks to Niedermayer-in-waiting.

    All that team needs is a Nichushkin-whisperer, and it could be extremely dangerous.

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I hope they trade their first rounder away again before Mike Smith goes down.Making a bet on Mike Smith is fine.Making a bet on Mike Smith to play a whole year is dumb.Not having a capable backup behind Smith ready to take over is really dumb.
    It’s a matter of time before they are scrambling to find g help.
    Really don’t get how they didn’t top Avs offer for Grubauer

    Agreed 100%

    Grubauer is the best young goalie in the league (outside of Gibson) and COL got him for a song and cap space.

    NHL GMs. Man.

    Also,

    I see WPG potentially having the same problem.

    Goalies who play a lot of minutes tend to decline in the next year (Except Rinne lately) and Hellebyuck played the most last year (Anderson and Vasilevskiy are close) and they went with Brossoit as a back up.

    Add that to a weak LHD after Morrissey and WPG might have a losing streak this year that no one expects.

  95. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Trading away Hamilton was a panic move and the James Neal contract………

    I don’t know how he didn’t make a claim on Pickard…..

    Yeah, it feels like he’s off the rails…..

  96. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Everybody’s going and I want to go too
    Don’t wanna take a chance with somebody new
    I did all I could and I did it right there and then
    I’ve already confessed, no need to confess again

    I’ll plant and I’ll harvest what the earth brings forth
    The hammer’s on the table, the pitchfork’s on the shelf
    For the love of God, you ought to take pity on yourself

  97. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    At least Hellebyuck has been healthy and is young. Smith is like Varlamov. Each game he’s healthy consider yourself lucky

  98. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Ben Bishop is a rather decent goaltender if he stays healthy. Nill seems to have hired a pretty good coaching staff finally.Klingberg is entering his prime and Heiskanen looks to Niedermayer-in-waiting.

    All that team needs is a Nichushkin-whisperer, and it could be extremely dangerous.

    Bishop is “ok” when he’s healthy but he hasn’t been above average for a while.

    Nill gave him $5MM, contract has 5 years to run and he turns 32 next month.

    That’s a very, very thin bet on an injury prone goalie on the wrong side of 30 imo

  99. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    At least Hellebyuck has been healthy and is young.Smith is like Varlamov.Each game he’s healthy consider yourself lucky

    Yup, Hellebyuck could probably do it again.

    I’m from the Colby Cosh school of goalies. “Move them up to the next level as soon as they are proficient at their current level”

    I think the NHL norm of slow playing goalies is the opposite of what they should be doing.

  100. maudite says:

    MAUDITE says:
    October 7, 2018 at 5:03 pm
    The sky isn’t falling IMO. In that hunter lotto I picked 90 points for a reason. I couldn’t see a way without “everything breaking right” that this is a playoff team.

    That goal differenitial really does point to something though. I like RNH and Mcdavid but:

    Pass Mcdavid the puck on breakout
    Follow into zone
    Find open ice in high danger scoring area
    Keep stick on ice
    Release puck if/when it finds you
    Or still be somewhat in motion to crash net for potential reboiunds if he shoots

    Doesn’t likely require a 6 million dollar winger. Definitely doesn’t require an 8.5 million dollar winger.

    Khaira/Reider Mcdavid Rattie/Yamoto
    RNH Drai Pu
    Lucic Strome Yamoto/Rattie
    Reider/Khaira Brodziak Kassian

    Line 1 will outscore
    Line 2 might outscore (leave it together let them mesh)
    Bottom six blend away until you find something that seems alright (Todd needs something he can push blender button on…he doesn’t line match all to much and relies on blender to feel like coaching IMO so give him that).

    Double shift Mcdavid every so often on that 3rd line -> bump strome to RW give Kailer a seat (or sit strome and let rattie chew up lighter comp where his deficiencies on D won’t hurt as much…win the home games). Hopefully that helps bump Lucic’s numbers a bit, reduces Kailer’s minutes.

    Key is though keep PU away from Lucic. I care less about propping up Lucic than I do about getting Pu comfortable and contributing in an important manner.

    Jaxon: Agreed.

    EDIT: ****optimistic post warning****

    That is why I think they should be loading up the 2nd line.

    Nugent-Hopkins / Driasiatl / Puljujarvi – give another line the best chance to outscore the opposition

    McDavid will outscore the opposition with anyone and Rattie has shown some chemistry that I don’t think he’d have with anyone else. Put Khaira in the Maroon spot. He has more speed than Maroon, so he might even be better.

    Khaira / McDavid / Rattie

    That leaves Strome centering a 3rd line that can saw off competition and possibly score a bit. I don’t think they’ll ever put Lucic lower than 3LW, and that might be the right play if he has some skill with him. Strome and Yamamoto have enough skill, and against slightly easier competition this might be a good spot for them.

    Lucic / Strome / Yamamoto

    That leaves Caggiula (press box please), Chiasson (solid), Brodziak (likely 4C), Kassian, and Rieder(playing below his ability but definitely able to outscore the competition here). I don’t mind Kassian at 4R, but he hasn’t been great for a while now and he costs a lot there. I’d go with:

    Rieder / Brodziak / Chiasson

    I think they’d be better off trading Caggiula and Kassian (and their $3.45M in cap hits).

    I’m also hoping Jones continues to dominate in the AHL and gets some callups this season for experience. I’d like them to get some looks at him before season’s end so they know what they have before Russell’s 10 team trade list kicks in. If they trust Jones, then trade him away for whatever. Possibly Sekera, too, depending on how he comes back (will injury be behind him?). If Bear, Benning, or Bouchard can step into the 2RD spot, that will mean absolutely everything for this team.

    Benson and Marody should be competing for a spot by the end of the season and next fall. McLeod will join them in that regard next fall. Marody moving into Brodziak’s spot would be huge. Benson could push Rieder to the right side. Khaira might move back to 4C next season, too. Benson on LW in the top 9, McLeod in the AHL next fall, working for a callup.

    I like where the Oilers are heading. I have a lot of faith in Marody, Benson and Jones. And McLeod a year later. The B’s on the right side look promising, too (Benning, Bear, Bouchard, Berglund) If, one turns into a solid 2RD and one into a solid NHL 3RHD, then the Oilers are pretty set for some time.

    Goalering is still a concern. If Talbot and Koskinen aren’t the answer, they are in big trouble as there is a big age gap for when to expect the next wave to be NHL ready. Goalies take a long time to develop and Starrett (the next closest in age) may not turn into an NHLer. Skiner and Wells are only 19 and 20, so they are probably a long way away. They would have been better looking to that 24 to 26 year old range this summer.

  101. Bling says:

    We talk a lot about roster balance from the perspective of the GM’s chair, but a big part of balance is deployment, and that’s all coaching.

    My beef with McLellan is that he just hasn’t been able to get much out of his roster GF% wise when McDavid is off the ice. It has been a huge problem — we talk about it a lot — and he (previously) was very stubborn in sticking Drai with McDavid.

    Meanwhile, he has also been unreasonably stubborn on guys who have been quite unproductive (Caggs, Kassian, Letestu, Lucic last season), while not optimally deploying Puljujarvi. You could argue that his deployment of Strome early last season was also extremely suspect/non-sensical.

    You frequently get the impression that the GM and coach don’t see eye to eye. Exhibits of that include Strome’s position, Draisaitl’s spot in the lineup, Aberg, and even Puljujarvi. Garrison matches the profile of the type of player that McLellan likes (tough, gritty, North American with a good personality who probably can’t play). Some of Chia’s acquisitions (not Garrison), IMO, read as good bets to improve the roster and help McLellan. But it’s like Todd is drowning and casting aside the lifelines being handed to him. How do you help a guy who doesn’t want any help?

    Another troubling observation that I have is that McLellan is not able to adjust tactics in-game very effectively. MacT and Renney were able to do that, IMO. I thought Todd Nelson was effective in that department as well (Nelson in particular was an excellent communicator; I still remember him pacing up and down the bench. Lots of chatter between him and the players). McLellan also strikes me as being quite a negative guy (for today’s game). The tone and tenor of his media avails is night and day compared to Nelson. I don’t know how well that flies with any group of players (remember, even some of the 30+ crowd would be considered millennials).

    We will never know what McLellan’s role was in the Hall trade, but he is a very traditional guy and Hall is a very non-traditional personality. What do you think Hall would have said/done when McLellan told him to chip and chase? There were whispers of a blood pact on that trade. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to hear that McLellan was a big part of that.

    Having loud opinions is all well and fine, but McLellan has shown himself to be consistently wrong and, the more I think about it, just completely out of step with the modern game. A guy like Babcock — another loud man — has really evolved, and IMO improved as a communicator and developer of young talent, whereas McLellan has very much stagnated.

    My final pearl: Klefbom last season. McLellan wanted him to hit 300 shots, right? Well that statement right there completely ignores how goals are scored at evens and on the PP. That information is out there for everyone, and if McLellan doesn’t know that, it really speaks to him having an outdated knowledge of the game and as being someone who is impervious to new ways of thinking.

  102. Alpine says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks,

    I’ve been looking into GG lately as there’s probably more than a 50% chance he takes over at some point.

    Nothing really sticks out about his time with DAL, other than how much of a corpse their D was. They had Goli, over the hill Robidas, Daley, Dillon, Fistric, Grossmann, over the hill Souray, Phil Larsen, Jordie Benn. Really not good.

    Their best forwards were Benn and Eriksson and their other offensive weapons were mostly over 30 (Ryder, Ribeiro, Jagr, Whitney, Cole etc). Also not too good.

    Gulutzans underliers were mostly a hair under 50 there. They usually out performed their xG by about a percent or more, and I’m not sure whether that’s a sign of good or poor coaching. Lehtonen was solid back then so that’s probably what made the difference.

    His numbers were respectable for such a weird roster. Off the top of my head xG was ~48% in 11/12 and under 47 in 12/13. Corsi and GF% we’re closer to 50. Not too great in the lockout year but a worse coach may have had those teams near last place.

  103. Glovjuice says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I liked the way CGY played under Gulutzan (PP excepted)

    Todd is in this 4th year.If this is the way the play under him in year 4 it’s time to go.

    I’m not panicking, (see my first post in this thread) but they have to play way better and have a structure that is conducive to winning.

    Stationary wingers along the boards in the dzone who look like dogs with shock collars and won’t go low to help and are never more than 3ft off the boards is ripe to be exploited by active skating Dmen.

    Chip and chase entries when you out number the defenders or have as many attackers as defenders is ripe to be exploited by active skating Dmen who get to the puck and move it before the forecheckers can arrive

    Skating your players the morning of a game is a useless expenditure of energy that many teams have eschewed.

    There are a number of issues that might not clear up if the players are working hard and doing what the coach wants them to do.

    If that happens, it’s time to move on.

    This.

    I am not one to cheer for losses but I really want Tmac to be gone. I wasn’t posting at the time of his hire but was not happy – the Sharks should have a cup with the team he had (at LEAST a final appearance was deserved for the most handsome man in the history of hockey er. Doug Wilson) but, not to be with Todd on the bench. He is stubborn in the extreme.

  104. Glovjuice says:

    flyfish1168:
    Unfortunately Benning cannot go down without clearing waivers. Bear by eye during preseason has looked much better than Benning. I’m thinking Matt will be on a short leash. Or hoping he is

    Benning is slow – small stride exacerbated by simply being short. A defender such as this at second pairing is not going to work. I have no idea how any in this community see otherwise.

  105. Alpine says:

    I suppose my thing with a McLellan is I’m not sure where he’s adding value if his preferred style of play is clashing with the team. What’s his strength outside of coaching dump and chase and whatever other conventional coaching habits?

    I feel like the new assistants kind of have everything covered. And there’s an associate HC that probably his own ideas about this team.

  106. GMB3 says:

    Glovjuice: Benning is slow – small stride exacerbated by simply being short.A defender such as this at second pairing is not going to work. I have no idea how any in this community see otherwise.

    Probably his excellent rookie season? As well as finding some success in limited minutes with a healthy Sekera on the second pairing in 16/17

  107. Alpine says:

    Glovjuice,

    Benning’s a guy who usually looks worse than he actually is. He skates weird and makes odd decisions. Someone like Bear looks like he knows what he’s doing especially with the puck but is much more of an adventure in his own zone.

  108. GMB3 says:

    Alpine:
    Glovjuice,

    Benning’s a guy who usually looks worse than he actually is. He skates weird and makes odd decisions. Someone like Bear looks like he knows what he’s doing especially with the puck but is much more of an adventure in his own zone.

    I’m also not sure how much blame should be placed on Benning. Nurse goes walkabout regularly in his own end.

  109. workaroundaccount says:

    Hey LT, I’m sure you have bigger concerns, but could you fix the site? It’s been really clunky ince the draft. I’m sure it’s not a simple fix, but it really is a pain now that I’m trying to check in a few times a day.

  110. Glovjuice says:

    hunter1909: Epic.

    Agreed – Tych. level wit.

  111. workaroundaccount says:

    I’m not a huge TMac fan, but I don’t know that I see better candidates out there. He’s a middle of the road coach, and most guys in the league would do exactly what he does. I would love a Jon Cooper, but I don’t know where we find him. Our GM on the other hand seems like a guy who is very easily improved upon. We were ecstatic that he did nothing to improve a lottery team. That should tell you all you need to know anout his capabilities. Wish it was that simple, but we have no idea how much pull the Legion of Stupid has.

  112. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Backlund’s history at 2C (toughest minutes) is solid.

    If EDM had Backlund-Tkachuk on their 2nd line this would be a much different team.

    I thought Treliving started well as GM, but this past summer was bad imo.

    He won’t be the first GM sunk by bad taste in goalies.

    It will sink Nill eventually too and I like a lot of what he does.

    Treviling went off the rails with the Hamonic trade. Hamilton was a good bet, but also expensive. Hamonic was a poor bet cause he was never near as Good as Hamilton and his fancies were trending down. And I believe the same price was paid in each deal.

    SMITH? poor bet. You betting less on the players ability as you are the Luck of his health (I took Matt Murray in my hockey pool *ducks*)

    NEAL? I think terrible bet. They handed out a 4 yr contract to an aging power forward – Brouwer – and then bought him out after 2 years. what did they go do next? Sign an aging power forward to a 5 yr deal.

    Trouble on Horizon when best D man is 35 and starting goalie 36. Unless you are ’67 Leafs.

  113. 106 and 106 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Dellow just wrote a post on the athletic about Babcock pulling his goalie early and old school coaches like McLellan not changing their habits at all.

    Shot across the bow as he was working for the team then….

  114. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If Todd gets the pipe I’d want Vivieros. Gulatzan is fine but more of the same.

    I think the Oilers issues are less roster at this point and more communication. Vivieros has a history of getting the best out of players. Especially less mature players and those are the guys the Oilers need to get going.

    The vets aren’t the problem as much for once.

  115. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar: Adding Hamilton and De Haan in one off-season is a massive haul.

    and my calder pick of Schevnikov. Like Brind’Amour. They just need Goalering.

    If Peters misses playoffs with cgy and Brind’Amour makes it in Car …. hmmmm

    I digress. season is 3 games in

  116. jtblack says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    If Todd gets the pipe I’d want Vivieros. Gulatzan is fine but more of the same.

    I think the Oilers issues are less roster at this point and more communication. Vivieros has a history of getting the best out of players. Especially less mature players and those are the guys the Oilers need to get going.

    The vets aren’t the problem as much for once.

    I will +1 this ….

  117. Professor Q says:

    workaroundaccount:
    I’m not a huge TMac fan, but I don’t know that I see better candidates out there. He’s a middle of the road coach, and most guys in the league would do exactly what he does. I would love a Jon Cooper, but I don’t know where we find him. Our GM on the other hand seems like a guy who is very easily improved upon. We were ecstatic that he did nothing to improve a lottery team. That should tell you all you need to know anout his capabilities. Wish it was that simple, but we have no idea how much pull the Legion of Stupid has.

    I do miss Krueger…but I think the Premier League offers better pay and environment (maybe?) for him than the NHL. He still gets international hockey in, regardless. No idea who else. Younger, promising coach? European coach? Viveiros?

    As for the GM, why not a young upstart like some teams are doing? Who, really, would be available? The Gretzky Bros are in the wings but it would be something to try a Chayka or Dubas etc. move.

  118. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bling:
    We talk a lot about roster balance from the perspective of the GM’s chair, but a big part of balance is deployment, and that’s all coaching.

    My beef with McLellan is that he just hasn’t been able to get much out of his roster GF% wise when McDavid is off the ice. It has been a huge problem — we talk about it a lot — and he (previously) was very stubborn in sticking Drai with McDavid.

    Meanwhile, he has also been unreasonably stubborn on guys who have been quite unproductive (Caggs, Kassian, Letestu, Lucic last season), while not optimally deploying Puljujarvi. You could argue that his deployment of Strome early last season was also extremely suspect/non-sensical.

    You frequently get the impression that the GM and coach don’t see eye to eye. Exhibits of that include Strome’s position, Draisaitl’s spot in the lineup, Aberg, and even Puljujarvi.Garrison matches the profile of the type of player that McLellan likes (tough, gritty, North American with a good personality who probably can’t play). Some of Chia’s acquisitions (not Garrison), IMO, read as good bets to improve the roster and help McLellan. But it’s like Todd is drowning and casting aside the lifelines being handed to him. How do you help a guy who doesn’t want any help?

    Another troubling observation that I have is that McLellan is not able to adjust tactics in-game very effectively. MacT and Renney were able to do that, IMO. I thought Todd Nelson was effective in that department as well (Nelson in particular was an excellent communicator; I still remember him pacing up and down the bench. Lots of chatter between him and the players). McLellan also strikes me as being quite a negative guy (for today’s game). The tone and tenor of his media avails is night and day compared to Nelson. I don’t know how well that flies with any group of players (remember, even some of the 30+ crowd would be considered millennials).

    We will never know what McLellan’s role was in the Hall trade, but he is a very traditional guy and Hall is a very non-traditional personality. What do you think Hall would have said/done when McLellan told him to chip and chase? There were whispers of a blood pact on that trade. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to hear that McLellan was a big part of that.

    Having loud opinions is all well and fine, but McLellan has shown himself to be consistently wrong and, the more I think about it, just completely out of step with the modern game. A guy like Babcock — another loud man — has really evolved, and IMO improved as a communicator and developer of young talent, whereas McLellan has very much stagnated.

    My final pearl: Klefbom last season. McLellan wanted him to hit 300 shots, right? Well that statement right there completely ignores how goals are scored at evens and on the PP. That information is out there for everyone, and if McLellan doesn’t know that, it really speaks to him having an outdated knowledge of the game and as being someone who is impervious to new ways of thinking.

    I have also thought McL is a bit dour for today’s players. It’s a different day and everyone has to evolve.

    I’m not sure Babcock has as much choice to change as he is smart given his GM and how pushy that GM is.

    As for Klefbom, they knew he had a bad shoulder, so ask him to take more shots? Really?

  119. GMB3 says:

    Alpine:
    I suppose my thing with a McLellan is I’m not sure where he’s adding value if his preferred style of play is clashing with the team. What’s his strength outside of coaching dump and chase and whatever other conventional coaching habits?

    I feel like the new assistants kind of have everything covered. And there’s an associate HC that probably his own ideas about this team.

    I’ve played baseball on a team with two guys who were basically accustom to being HC’s where the incumbent HC didn’t quite have the favour of the guys on the team and it was a distraction and got quite ugly. It’ll be interesting to see if that becomes a storyline

  120. GMB3 says:

    In watching tonight’s Hurricanes game I’d be hard pressed to see Faulk not being one of our top 4 D by merit. I know that ship has sailed and it’s quite possible playing with De Haan clovers a lot of his sins, but at least he has a clue of what to do with the puck when he gets it in his own end.

  121. theDjdj says:

    Re: fourth Dman, given the current theme to acquisitions is “reclamation” do you think Montreal would be open to a deal for Petry? Cost controlled for the next three years. Lines up well with our roster. Montreal surely looking at full rebuild. What offer would get it done?

  122. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: Treviling went off the rails with the Hamonic trade.Hamilton was a good bet, but also expensive.Hamonic was a poor bet cause he was never near as Good as Hamilton and his fancies were trending down.And I believe the same price was paid in each deal.

    SMITH? poor bet. You betting less on the players ability as you are the Luck of his health (I took Matt Murray in my hockey pool *ducks*)

    NEAL? I think terrible bet. They handed out a 4 yr contract to an aging power forward – Brouwer – and then bought him out after 2 years. what did they go do next? Sign an aging power forward to a 5 yr deal.

    Trouble on Horizon when best D man is 35 and starting goalie 36.Unless you are ’67 Leafs.

    Agreed all points, but my love for Hamonic will never die.

    Its fading….but not dead.

  123. GMB3 says:

    Warren Foegele looks quite good alongside Williams and Staal so hat tip to VOR he beat that drum early and often

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    106 and 106:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Dellow just wrote a post on the athletic about Babcock pulling his goalie early and old school coaches like McLellan not changing their habits at all.

    Shot across the bow as he was working for the team then….

    Thanks for the heads up, will have to read it.

    If there is a new innovation in NHL coaching I’m never shocked that Todd is holding out on it and hasn’t looked into it.

  125. GMB3 says:

    theDjdj:
    Re: fourth Dman, given the current theme to acquisitions is “reclamation” do you think Montreal would be open to a deal for Petry? Cost controlled for the next three years. Lines up well with our roster. Montreal surely looking at full rebuild. What offer would get it done?

    He’s their best D so somewhere between what we traded him for and the moon.

  126. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    CAR/VAN being 4-3 halfway through the game is awesome.

    Hook that shit up to my veins.

    7-6 wins for everyone!!!

  127. theDjdj says:

    I wouldn’t mind seeing Stone spend some time on LD’s right wing. Not too far away from one of the farm boys eating his lunch at centre. He’s had success in that role before. And we need a utility that can spot cover while our younger plays get through their growing pains. I actually find it odd that TMac hasn’t tried it.

    Edit: STROME not Stone. Autocorrect done me in. Though we can hope that “Predicitive text” is more clairvoyant than Apple let’s on

  128. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    CAR/VAN being 4-3 halfway through the game is awesome.

    Hook that shit up to my veins.

    7-6 wins for everyone!!!

    It’s been a highly entertaining game.

  129. Pescador says:

    GMB3:
    In watching tonight’s Hurricanes game I’d be hard pressed to see Faulk not being one of our top 4 D by merit. I know that ship has sailed and it’s quite possible playing with De Haan clovers a lot of his sins, but at least he has a clue of what to do with the puck when he gets it in his own end.

    How is the fatty fat fat/60 looking these days

  130. theDjdj says:

    GMB3: He’s their best D so somewhere between what we traded him for and the moon.

    No question. But it’s not like Montreal have a strong history of extracting value out of trades. Does our first get it done? Maybe if they take Sekeras contract (NMC pending)

  131. Alpine says:

    theDjdj:
    I wouldn’t mind seeing Stone spend some time on LD’s right wing. Not too far away from one of the farm boys eating his lunch at centre. He’s had success in that role before. And we need a utility that can spot cover while our younger plays get through their growing pains. I actually find it odd that TMac hasn’t tried it.

    Edit: STROME not Stone. Autocorrect done me in. Though we can hope that “Predicitive text” is more clairvoyant than Apple let’s on

    I think he tried it last year. They did well for a bit before Christmas but I think he never went back to that combo after the post Christmas deathmarch where they would have presumably went cold like the rest of the team.

  132. Bank Shot says:

    106 and 106:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Dellow just wrote a post on the athletic about Babcock pulling his goalie early and old school coaches like McLellan not changing their habits at all.

    Shot across the bow as he was working for the team then….

    Dallas Eakins was Mr.NewAgeHockeySystems and he was the biggest disaster in a long stream of Oiler disasters.

    We just need someone that is good. Progressive or not.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    theDjdj:
    Re: fourth Dman, given the current theme to acquisitions is “reclamation” do you think Montreal would be open to a deal for Petry? Cost controlled for the next three years. Lines up well with our roster. Montreal surely looking at full rebuild. What offer would get it done?

    Jeff Petry would be fantastic, however:

    1) How in the world do we fit his $5.5M cap hit in?

    2) What are the chances we aren’t on his 15 team no trade list? 1%?

  134. Alpine says:

    Bank Shot: Dallas Eakins was Mr.NewAgeHockeySystems and he was the biggest disaster in a long stream of Oiler disasters.

    We just need someone that is good. Progressive or not.

    NewAgeSys! I miss that guy. Someone on twitter unearthed that guy’s manifesto on some non-HF forum.

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    Just when you thought a prospect was dead, Skyler Briind’Amour named BCHL player of the week with 2G/3A in two games last week.

    He’s committed to Quinnipiac Univ. for next season.

  136. Lowetide says:

    Bank Shot: Dallas Eakins was Mr.NewAgeHockeySystems and he was the biggest disaster in a long stream of Oiler disasters.

    We just need someone that is good. Progressive or not.

    Eakins brought a lot of great ideas but I think he maybe tried to institute them too quickly. He would also have benefited from having a veteran general manager. Rookies in both spots was a tough turn for both men.

  137. Bulging Twine says:

    I agree that perhaps Todd hasn’t adjusted to some of the latest coaching philosophies that seem to be having success. A few years ago most coaches preached lot’s of shots. “Just shoot”. Many coaches now want their teams to look for high quality shots rather than volume of shots. I know Cassidy of the Bruins is one amongst others. Pittsburgh looks for slap passes from the point to the slot rather than bombs on net from the point. I believe that we are seeing many more cross ice passes in the Ozone than we did previously. McLellan just last year was still espousing the just shoot mentality in the Ozone.

    One doesn’t have to come to the point where they think the coach is horrible/awful/’worst coach ever’ to terminate him. He’s a decent coach with strengths and weaknesses.

    One area I believe to be a weakness of McLellan’s is he seems to end up a little bit in a him vs the players relationship. I love a coach like Peter DeBoer or Barry Trotz who defend their players, especially in the playoffs when media scrutiny is enhanced. They have confidence in their players and a supportive relationship that gives off a, WE are in this together vibe. Darryl Sutter was good with this in the playoffs with LA. The McLellan style I believe has a shelf life or a relationship breaking point or at least tiring point.
    Unfortunately I believe Gulutzan is the same me versus them type coach. Perhaps even more so. Those swearing rants and throwing his stick temper tantrum venting on his teams are just bush league and relational killers. I mean who wants to win for that guy. And after throwing his stick and swearing and venting, if that is his way, if the players slip up again or don’t respond, what does he have left? Amp it up? To what? It doesn’t work long term, or even perhaps short term. No wonder he isn’t in Calgary anymore, he couldn’t be.

  138. theDjdj says:

    OriginalPouzar: Jeff Petry would be fantastic, however:

    1) How in the world do we fit his $5.5M cap hit in?

    2) What are the chances we aren’t on his 15 team no trade list? 1%?

    1) you would need to send out money to make it work definitely. Moving Sekera could work. Hed have to agree. I think our first would be a decent pay for that.
    2) Didn’t he see the “Under New Management” banner out front?

  139. Professor Q says:

    As talented as San Jose is, the refs are letting them get away with a lot of egregious acts (even if they just give them 2 minutes for vicious slashes). I thought the league wanted to crack down on stick work?

  140. theDjdj says:

    I see a lot of 16/17 oilers in the Leafs. No question they’re a talented team but how long can they continue the strategy of defense by outscoring their opponents. If Andersen struggles that team could tank. But boy do they score though.

  141. godot10 says:

    McLellan hasn’t cycled his assistant coaches like Babcock has. Even now, when there are all new coaches, they are all his former assistants or his buddies from Saskatchewan. Dubas has Babcock looking over his shoulder at Sheldon Keefe (practiciing often in the same building in Etobicoke). I don’t think Babcock had total say over who is assistants were either.

    The new ideas come from the AHL. There is noone on McLellan’s staff for the last 3 years or this year with a recent history in the AHL.

    Dallas has a top college guy as head coach, a top AHL coach as one assistant, and one of the most experienced NHL assistants (Bowness out of Tampa) as the other. Montgomery and Nelson knew each other from one year playing together in the AHL in Hershey in the nineties. Essentially all the bases as to what is.
    happening in hockey are covered.

    The Oilers probably have to bring in a brand name coach if they make a change next summer. Considering that is likely not Nelson, I am starting my list of possibilities with Jacques Martin and Alain Vigneautt.

  142. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: Dallas Eakins was Mr.NewAgeHockeySystems and he was the biggest disaster in a long stream of Oiler disasters.

    We just need someone that is good. Progressive or not.

    The metric system is the tool of the devil!!

    My car gets 40 rods to the hogshead and that’s the way I likes it!

    Also,

    What Eakins was trying to teach was what most of the coaches are bringing now.

    Hard skating, outman the puck etc.

    Eakins and the roster had a lot of issues that caused his failure here, but the system he was actually trying to teach was not among them.

  143. Jethro Tull says:

    Professor Q:
    As talented as San Jose is, the refs are letting them get away with a lot of egregious acts (even if they just give them 2 minutes for vicious slashes). I thought the league wanted to crack down on stick work?

    Not as much as they want a huge market share in non-traditional hockey markets.

  144. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Eakins brought a lot of great ideas but I think he maybe tried to institute them too quickly. He would also have benefited from having a veteran general manager. Rookies in both spots was a tough turn for both men.

    A rookie coach going to the whip early and often with a young group, the older part of the group being marginal (if that) NHLers, pissing in all the corners so everyone knew who owned the yard, taking a 20 games to get through pre-season, etc, etc.

    I bet he learned a lot (especially in regard to humility and what not to do) and will be good next (if) time he gets a chance.

    The Gulls plays good hockey under him.

  145. theDjdj says:

    Woodguy v2.0: A rookie coach going to the whip early and often with a young group, the older part of the group being marginal (if that) NHLers,pissing in all the corners so everyone knew who owned the yard, taking a 20 games to get through pre-season, etc, etc.

    I bet he learned a lot (especially in regard to humility and what not to do) and will be good next (if) time he gets a chance.

    The Gulls plays good hockey under him.

    To me Eakins represents the extreme of an analytical based approach to coaching. I’m unsure whether he utilised hockey analytics at the time but his unyielding approach to the necessity of soft skills in that position I see reflected in the attitude of some of the more ardent analytical thought leaders.

    I do hope he learnt from the process. He’s clearly intelligent and has the makings of a great coach. I definetly admired the courage he had in his convictions.

  146. Professor Q says:

    Mike Babcock looks comical when irate over a goal against.

    Even spat his gum out into his own hand…

  147. Material Elvis says:

    Bulging Twine:

    Unfortunately I believe Gulutzan is the same me versus them type coach.Perhaps even more so.Those swearing rants and throwing his stick temper tantrum venting on his teams are just bush league and relational killers.I mean who wants to win for that guy.And after throwing his stick and swearing and venting, if that is his way, if the players slip up again or don’t respond, what does he have left?Amp it up?To what?It doesn’t work long term, or even perhaps short term.No wonder he isn’t in Calgary anymore, he couldn’t be.

    The Flames had an incredible winning streak under Gulutzan in 16/17. They also went 5-0-4 in 2018 after he snapped in practice. I’m not sure that your narrative is well-supported.

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    theDjdj: 1) you would need to send out money to make it work definitely. Moving Sekera could work. Hed have to agree. I think our first would be a decent pay for that.
    2) Didn’t he see the “Under New Management” banner out front?

    Noone is acquiring Sekera without a massive sweetner and you have indeed mentioned a massive sweetner. In no way am I willing to give up our 1st rounder next year for a Petry level d-man (as much as he would be great for the 2nd pairing and PP).

  149. ArmchairGM says:

    Wow, Tavares and Matthews are having a goal-scoring competition every game.

  150. Bling says:

    I wonder if Matthews could score 80 goals.

    It’s a crazy number, but his release is bananas. I haven’t seen anything like it. No one knows where that puck is going except for him.

  151. Professor Q says:

    Bling:
    I wonder if Matthews could score 80 goals.

    It’s a crazy number, but his release is bananas. I haven’t seen anything like it. No one knows where that puck is going except for him.

    It’s going to be an even more insufferable year, especially around here.

    Can’t wait to be beset upon by the Maple Leafs fans at my work.

  152. jtblack says:

    Bling:
    I wonder if Matthews could score 80 goals.

    It’s a crazy number, but his release is bananas. I haven’t seen anything like it. No one knows where that puck is going except for him.

    Him and Tavares are playing Beginner mode …

  153. VOR says:

    I keep reading that you should take the most skilled player available when drafting.

    I want to test that concept.

    To do so I have created a series of challenges.

    I have worked very hard on playing completely fairly with my audience.

    In the first I have chosen three players who a) were drafted in the same year, b) from the same league, c) from good teams, d) all were seen as highly skilled players with good tools and hockey IQs and roughly equivalent skating ability, e) all were taken later in the draft, f) all had careers of significance – though sadly one lost his career to concussion and another was slowed by a series of injuries, g) all served AHL apprenticeships where they excelled.

    Below you will find the size, boxcars, and birth dates of 3 Centers followed by data on their best year in the NHL. Step 1 – match the player to the best year.

    Player 1. 5’11” 175lbs 72 62 79 141 March
    Player 2. 5’10” 190lbs 70 50 70 120 September
    Player 3. 6’2″ 200lbs 46 15 29 44 April

    Year 1. 71 34 39 73
    Year 2. 80 43 45 88
    Year 3. 79 23 34 57

    2 of these players won the Stanley Cup 3 times each and were key parts of each Cup winning team. One has won the Cup as a coach. One didn’t win as either a coach or a player but has his name on the Stanley Cup.

    This exercise arises from the last one where I identified useful heuristics people use to rank draft picks when reading their scouting reports. Now I want to see how you evaluate box car data.

    So Step 2 if you could take a moment and rank the players in the order you would draft them and explain why.

  154. Bling says:

    Leafs have built a great team and they don’t make mistakes with contracts.

    When Nylander gets back, the matchup problems will get even worse.

    I think it’s great for the game. Oilers could have had something similar, sigh.

  155. frjohnk says:

    Bling: I wonder if Matthews could score 80 goals.

    Every year there are guys that have a great start to the year.

    Kucherov had 16 goals in his first 18 games. Ended up with 39 goals in 80 games
    Stamkos had 31 points in his first 18 games. Ended up with 86 points in 78 games

    These guys are the elite of the elite. But even with that, these players cool off, and at times of the year will go into slumps.

    50 goals is doable for Matthews.
    80?

    Not a chance

  156. GMB3 says:

    Good god Toronto is scary.

    like Edmonton would be if they had McDavid, Draisaitl, Hall, Barzal, and RNH. Potent.

  157. VOR says:

    Now let’s try it with points per game.

    Career 1. 0.634
    Career 2. 0.503
    Career 3. 0.763

    Player 1. 5’11” 175lbs 72 62 79 141 March
    Player 2. 5’10” 190lbs 70 50 70 120 September
    Player 3. 6’2″ 200lbs 46 15 29 44 April

    Again match them up.

  158. VOR says:

    Now try matching games played to the boxcars

    Career Games 1. 524
    Career Games 2. 1318
    Career Games 3. 897

    Player 1. 5’11” 175lbs 72 62 79 141 March
    Player 2. 5’10” 190lbs 70 50 70 120 September
    Player 3. 6’2″ 200lbs 46 15 29 44 April

    By the way I selected these players by picking a draft year at random, a league at random, and a position at random. Then taking the last few players taken from that league at that position in that draft year. That I got three players this good is complete chance.

  159. frjohnk says:

    Bling: Leafs have built a great team

    Yes, they have.

    The fans deserve a great Maple Leaf team. The rest of the Canada doesnt though. My Grampa was a huge Leafs fan. Huge. I wish he was alive to see the team they have now.

    Bling: they don’t make mistakes with contracts

    We will see about that. The Tavares contract is not value ( and I am a huge fan of JT) and I think it could have a ripple effect on the Nylander, Matthews, Marner contracts.
    Zaitsev contract is not a good one.

    Bling: Oilers could have had something similar, sigh.

    Better yet, we have a GM with THE PLAN

    Or is it A PLAN?

    Or PLAN B?

    Maybe PLAN C?

    Nobody really knows.

  160. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Leafs have actually scored less goals and given up more goals through 4 games than they did last year.

    Last year through 4 games:

    22 GF – 16 GA.

    This year through 4 games:

    20 GF – 17 GA.

  161. frjohnk says:

    VOR:
    Now try matching games played to the boxcars

    Career Games 1. 524
    Career Games 2. 1318
    Career Games 3. 897

    Player 1. 5’11” 175lbs 72 62 79 141 March
    Player 2. 5’10” 190lbs 70 50 70 120 September
    Player 3. 6’2″ 200lbs 46 15 29 44 April

    By the way I selected these players by picking a draft year at random, a league at random, and a position at random. Then taking the last few players taken from that league at that position in that draft year. That I got three players this good is complete chance.

    I like when you do these.

    I had a feeling you were picking a certain type of player and actually within 10 seconds guessed one player. Checked the stats AND got it right. ( He won 2 cups with 1 team, 1 cup with another one; very good scorer in jr)

    With hockey db it was not hard getting the other two. So I wont play this time.

    But it looks like the box cars on your first post at 9:38 are not the same as the box cars in the next posts.

  162. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    At the rate teams are scoring now and the type of hockey that every team is employing, I swear I’ve got a gut feeling that the next big thing and shift in hockey will be the trap/counter-attack system similar to what Nashville, Phoenix, NJ and Minny used to use… teams won’t keep trying to play this fire-wagon hockey for much longer… as the teams with the most skilled players are near guaranteed to win most of those games. So teams without the high skilled players will need to counter with something…

    Does anyone else have any other guesses as to what can counter the high-skill/speed game? Maybe a whole team of Marchands and Larssons???

  163. VOR says:

    frjohnk: I like when you do these.

    I had a feeling you were picking a certain type of player and actually within 10 seconds guessed one player. Checked the stats AND got it right.( He won 2 cups with 1 team, 1 cup with another one; very good scorer in jr)

    With hockey db it was not hard getting the other two.So I wont play this time.

    But it looks like the box cars on your first post at 9:38 are not the same as the box cars in the next posts.

    I honestly wasn’t looking for a type.

    I just repeated the same exercise with the last three right wingers drafted from the OHL in 2003. All I can say is wow does it ever give you a new appreciation for Zach Stortini.

    That is now 9 iterations I have completed.

    My goal is to try to understand how people think about boxcars when they evaluate draft choices.

    The only tool we fans have to rate draft eligible players is public scouting reports/rankings (some of which have remarkable detail) and boxcars and demographic data. Though if they attend combine we have that data. I am fascinated by how we build cognitive maps/neural nets from this data. As I discovered recently people have some very interesting heuristics for analyzing the written parts of scouting reports. Now I am exploring how people think about boxcars.

    Will check for errors. Thx.

  164. GMB3 says:

    Are the first set of boxcars listed from their draft year? or the best year in their junior league?

  165. Alpine says:

    VOR,

    On draft day, I think I take Player 1 then 2 then 3. Hard to ignore that apparent skill and for me player 3’s size shouldn’t outweigh his production even as I found that he was in fact a rookie in the Q.

    Drafting is weird. Player 1 had the best career but it ended being a much different career than one would expect looking at those draft year boxcars. He may not have had the best career if the other two were healthy but those three Selkes help a lot.

    I guess that’s the thing. Is there a lesson in taking the best player so that they’ll find a way to be successful no matter what? I find the high scorers at draft time usually become NHLers these days but they don’t really turn into two way demons unless they already were. Player 1’s arc remains curious. 2 was a scorer and became one. 3 was a late bloomer as a QMJHL rookie and bloomed later on.

  166. VOR says:

    Crazy Pedestrian:
    At the rate teams are scoring now and the type of hockey that every team is employing, I swear I’ve got a gut feeling that the next big thing and shift in hockey will be the trap/counter-attack system similar to what Nashville, Phoenix, NJ and Minny used to use… teams won’t keep trying to play this fire-wagon hockey for much longer… as the teams with the most skilled players are near guaranteed to win most of those games. So teams without the high skilled players will need to counter with something…

    Does anyone else have any other guesses as to what can counter the high-skill/speed game?

    I think your fundamental assumption is untested. How are you determining who has the most skilled players? Let’s say we agree on how to determine that. Can we then generate proof that the team with the most skilled players wins most games.

    I strongly suspect coaching, system play, playing fast, and playing smart matter as much or more than skill. Though we aren’t talking about independent variables of course. The thing is the outcome of hockey games is also dependent on luck, large amounts of luck.

    So I reiterate – how are you defining skill and how are you measuring it.

    My point being skill is an intangible, just like character.

  167. VOR says:

    GMB3:
    Are the first set of boxcars listed from their draft year? or the best year in their junior league?

    Draft Year.

  168. GMB3 says:

    VOR:
    I keep reading that you should take the most skilled player available when drafting.

    I want to test that concept.

    To do so I have created a series of challenges.

    I have worked very hard on playing completely fairly with my audience.

    In the first I have chosen three players who a) were drafted in the same year, b) from the same league, c) from good teams, d) all were seen as highly skilled players with good tools and hockey IQs and roughly equivalent skating ability, e) all were taken later in the draft, f) all had careers of significance – though sadly one lost his career to concussion and another was slowed by a series of injuries, g) all served AHL apprenticeships where they excelled.

    Below you will find the size, boxcars, and birth dates of 3 Centers followed by data on their best year in the NHL. Step 1 – match the player to the best year.

    Player 1. 5’11” 175lbs 72 62 79 141 March
    Player 2. 5’10” 190lbs 70 50 70 120 September
    Player 3. 6’2″ 200lbs 46 15 29 44 April

    Year 1. 71 34 39 73
    Year 2. 80 43 45 88
    Year 3. 79 23 34 57

    2 of these players won the Stanley Cup 3 times each and were key parts of each Cup winning team. One has won the Cup as a coach. One didn’t win as either a coach or a player but has his name on the Stanley Cup.

    This exercise arises from the last one where I identified useful heuristics people use to rank draft picks when reading their scouting reports. Now I want to see how you evaluate box car data.

    So Step 2 if you could take a moment and rank the players in the order you would draft them and explain why.

    I’ll go player 2 with year 2.
    Player 1 with year 3
    Player 3 with year 1.

  169. GMB3 says:

    Well I cheated. Through this exercise, I learned that BIllings, Montana, had a WHL team.

    As the persons who was originally quoted at the start of this thread with the opinion that teams should always take the most productive players from Jr, I will say that I never meant only production in isolation. It’s curious to me that player 1 ever slipped as far as he did with those kind of junior numbers.

  170. VOR says:

    Alpine:
    VOR,

    On draft day, I think I take Player 1 then 2 then 3. Hard to ignore that apparent skill and for me player 3’s size shouldn’t outweigh his production even as I found that he was in fact a rookie in the Q.

    Drafting is weird. Player 1 had the best career but it ended being a much different career than one would expect looking at those draft year boxcars. He may not have had the best career if the other two were healthy but those three Selkes help a lot.

    I guess that’s the thing. Is there a lesson in taking the best player so that they’ll find a way to be successful no matter what? I find the high scorers at draft time usually become NHLers these days but they don’t really turn into two way demons unless they already were. Player 1’s arc remains curious. 2 was a scorer and became one. 3 was a late bloomer as a QMJHL rookie and bloomed later on.

    Drafting is weird. But we know looking back that what little media and public scouting there was of Player 1 completely fails to mention he was a defensive savant. The concussion that ended Player 2’s career prevents us seeing how perfectly his boxcars predicted the coming of a skilled NHL player. He actually was a stunning out player. And yes Player 3 is a classic late bloomer.

    The thing is boxcars should be a good proxy for skill. And if we accept the proposition that you want to draft for skill then we should see boxcars having more predictive and descriptive power than they do. I am really hoping somebody has clever hacks for mining information from these static numbers.

  171. VOR says:

    One hack that seems to have some value in this situation is not help pre draft but works post draft.

    Big numbers that don’t excite scouts tend to predict NHL out players.

    That is a first stab at an idea I think of as competent but not exciting.

  172. Wilde says:

    18 HDCF night for the Sharks, wow.

  173. maudite says:

    my money is on 5’10” 190 havng the longest and best career.

    Career Games 1. 524
    Career Games 2. 1318
    Career Games 3. 897

    Player 1. 5’11” 175lbs 72 62 79 141 March
    Player 2. 5’10” 190lbs 70 50 70 120 September
    Player 3. 6’2″ 200lbs 46 15 29 44 April

    By the way I selected these players by picking a draft year at random, a league at random, and a position at random. Then taking the last few players taken from that league at that position in that draft year. That I got three players this good is complete chance.

  174. Wilde says:

    Marner’s 5-2 goal in the game tonight was off of a textbook way to abuse a defenders’ handedness

    Faked a release to drop Lindell down (so he has only his dominant hand holding the stick) and then shifting around his weak side because he can’t turn and contest the pass in time..

  175. Wilde says:

    Also, more and more PP’s are putting guys with great hands in front of the net instead of just anybody that’s big and strong.

    You can’t get away with what you used to, so it’s more important to get the most skilled guy possible in that spot instead of just somebody who can weather the storm physically.

  176. Bulging Twine says:

    Material Elvis: The Flames had an incredible winning streak under Gulutzan in 16/17.They also went 5-0-4 in 2018 after he snapped in practice.I’m not sure that your narrative is well-supported.

    And now he’s not there anymore. It doesn’t work long term, often not short term either. It’s childish.

  177. Professor Q says:

    Bling:
    Leafs have built a great team and they don’t make mistakes with contracts.

    When Nylander gets back, the matchup problems will get even worse.

    I think it’s great for the game. Oilers could have had something similar, sigh.

    Only 2 out of 5 of these are correct.

  178. ArmchairGM says:

    Bling:
    Leafs have built a great team and they don’t make mistakes with contracts.

    When Nylander gets back, the matchup problems will get even worse.

    I think it’s great for the game. Oilers could have had something similar, sigh.

    They way Kapanen is playing on the 1st line, I think Nylander will have to start on line 3 with Kadri. That’s 50+ goals right there, plus whatever Lindholm can pot (49, 18-29-47 in SHL last year). Best 3rd line in the league?

  179. ArmchairGM says:

    Bling:
    I wonder if Matthews could score 80 goals.

    It’s a crazy number, but his release is bananas. I haven’t seen anything like it. No one knows where that puck is going except for him.

    He was the best goal scorer at 5v5 last year in the league – by far. This year he’s on the 1st PP unit (crazy to think he hasn’t been up to now) so his PP scoring rates should go up considerably too. Sixty goals isn’t unreasonable IMO; I have a hard time seeing how he gets to 80 unless he keeps shooting 50%.

  180. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR,

    Where in the line up did each of the players play?

    Which PP unit were they on?

    What % of team goals did they factor in?

    How many points did their linemates have?

    What are their 5v5 and PP point splits?

    I think all of these questions are important in evaluating points of draft eligible players

  181. godot10 says:

    VOR:
    Now try matching games played to the boxcars

    Career Games 1. 524
    Career Games 2. 1318
    Career Games 3. 897

    Player 1. 5’11” 175lbs 72 62 79 141 March
    Player 2. 5’10” 190lbs 70 50 70 120 September
    Player 3. 6’2″ 200lbs 46 15 29 44 April

    By the way I selected these players by picking a draft year at random, a league at random, and a position at random. Then taking the last few players taken from that league at that position in that draft year. That I got three players this good is complete chance.

    By what random process did you choose the year, because by the year chosen, it is difficult to believe that the choice of year was random.

    A random number generator? Dice? Numbered ping pong balls. A dart at a dartboard?

    The year selected cannot be characterized as a representative year. It is a unique year in many respects.

    A random process that selects a unique year is probably not random (or exceedingly fortuitous).

  182. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looking forward of confirmation of Nuge on the ice for practice today.

    Updates should be a bit earlier than normal given they are on the east coast.

  183. godot10 says:

    GMB3:
    Well I cheated. Through this exercise, I learned that BIllings, Montana, had a WHL team.

    As the persons who was originally quoted at the start of this thread with the opinion that teams should always take the most productive players from Jr, I will say that I never meant only production in isolation. It’s curious to me that player 1 ever slipped as far as he did with those kind of junior numbers.

    He really didn’t slide. Look at the draft year.

    In a regular draft year, he would have been close to if not in the top 30 players chosen, even at his size.

  184. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    Really dont like looking at box cars in a vacuum. Getting info on other players on the team is crucial. Is he the best producer on the team by far or is it Kostitsyn and Gagner playing with Kane

  185. Jaxon says:

    Step 1

    VOR: Step 1 – match the player to the best year.
    Player 1. 5’11” 175lbs 72 62 79 141 March – Year 2. 80 43 45 88
    Player 2. 5’10” 190lbs 70 50 70 120 September – Year 1. 71 34 39 73
    Player 3. 6’2″ 200lbs 46 15 29 44 April – Year 3. 79 23 34 57

    I tried to match based on the ratio of goals to assists so 3 to 3 made sense for me, it also lines up with the least points matching the best year. Playmakers generally stay playmakers and pure goal scorers generally stay pure goal scorers.

    VOR: So Step 2 if you could take a moment and rank the players in the order you would draft them and explain why.

    Step 2:
    It really depends on the era I was drafting in. In the 80s, 90s, and 00s I might draft the big kid. Today, I would draft the junior who scored most at 5-on-5. But, as WG mentioned, there are so many more things I want to know about where and when these points were produced (big PP points, scoring off great linemates, and how many minutes they played overall). I’m also a big proponent of 5-on-5 Primary Points as being more indicative of repeatability. Also, if they’re playing less than 12 minutes per game but outscoring easier competition by a large margin, then why? Are they not good enough to beat top competition (my worry about Farabee last year is he didn’t play much 5-on-5). I’d also like to know when their birthday is. Are they a late birthday or early birthday. WIthout knowing all that and drafting for today, I’d go with Player 1. 5’11” 175lbs 72 62 79 141, and hope that he filled out a bit as 175 lbs is quite slight.

    VOR: Now let’s try it with points per game.

    Career 1. 0.634
    Career 2. 0.503
    Career 3. 0.763

    Player 1. 5’11” 175lbs 72 62 79 141 March
    Player 2. 5’10” 190lbs 70 50 70 120 September

    Again match them up.

    Given that I believe this was sometime in the 80s or 90s, I’d guess at the big kid scoring the most.

    Career 3. 0.763 – Player 3. 6’2″ 200lbs 46 15 29 44 April
    Career 1. 0.634 – Player 1. 5’11” 175lbs 72 62 79 141 March
    Career 2. 0.503 – Player 2. 5’10” 190lbs 70 50 70 120 September

    Player 1 and 2 are so similar in junior that they are hard to parse.

  186. GMB3 says:

    godot10: He really didn’t slide.Look at the draft year.

    In a regular draft year, he would have been close to if not in the top 30 players chosen, even at his size.

    Good point

  187. GMB3 says:

    Bulging Twine: And now he’s not there anymore.It doesn’t work long term, often not short term either.It’s childish.

    You say this like a coach losing his shit is something unique and doesn’t happen all the time. 😶

  188. VOR says:

    I chose the year with a random number generator. The league was chosen using a modified random number table. The position I actually drew from a bowl.

    The players weren’t the point.

    I have now replicated it 20 times. In that sample as well as 1979 I have 2003, 1980, 1984, and 2011. Now in 2003, another non representative year I picked OHL Right Wingers out of the hat. The only player of those three who played in the NHL was the hugger mugger himself, Zach Stortini. Zach’s boxcars are by miles the worst in the triad.

    For those who don’t know the first data set was 1979, the league was the Q, and the position was center. That gave me Guy Carbonneau (140 points), Alan Haworth (120 points), and Mike Krushelnyski. All three guys boxcars suggest they had a real chance at an NHL career.

    One of my own hacks is that there is a threshold, a level of demonstrated performance, above which players will get at bats in the NHL. For the Q I usually use a point a game in your draft year. I am not fanatic about it. And either Mike arrived later or was injured so I put him in that camp.

    Alan Haworth the best ppg player of the three lost is career to concussion, though he went on playing in Europe – less risk. He is a scout now. I believe for Washington.

    Mike Krushelnyski won cups with Edmonton and as an assistant coach in Detroit in 1997. He had the single best offensive year of the three playing with Wayne Gretzky.

    But by far the longest and greatest career belongs to three time Cup winner, three time Selke winner Guy Carbonneau. From his numbers in junior you’d have bet on him being a super star in the NHL.

    But nothing I can find and certainly not his boxcars predict a defensive genius.

  189. Jaxon says:

    VOR,

    It’s funny, Haworth and Carbonneau were teammates in the Q the year prior to their draft year.

    Carbonnaeu 70GP 28G 55A 83PTS LIKELY 1ST LINE C
    Haworth 59GP 17G 33A 50PTS LIKELY 3RD OR 4TH LINE C

    Knowing that, it would be pretty hard to draft Haworth ahead of Carbonneau. When they were teammates, Guy clearly won the head-to-head battle.

  190. Jaxon says:

    It looks like 1999 would be the first draft that the general public had access to OHL, WHL, and QMJHL plus/minus stats. I know, flawed stat, blah, blah, blah… but it’s still a pretty damn good indicator of defensive responsibility and team play, especially given the lack of anything else at the time.

    I’d be happy to build an all-star team made entirely of NHL players who played 600 or more games and were ranked by the best plus/minus per game over their careers. You may end up with players like Bobby Clarke, Mike Bossy and Larry Robinson over Lemieux, Hull and Coffey, but I think I’d take that to win a cup. Gretzky and Orr would be on the top of both pts and plus/minus.

    So from 1999 on I’d be looking at plus/minus, too.

    QMJHL
    # PLAYER SEASON TEAM GP G A TP PPG PIM +/-
    1. Sidney Crosby (C) 2004-2005 Rimouski Océanic 62 66 102 168 2.71 84 78
    2. Nikolaj Ehlers (LW) 2013-2014 Halifax Mooseheads 63 49 55 104 1.65 51 65
    3. Sean Couturier (C) 2009-2010 Drummondville Voltigeurs 68 41 55 96 1.41 47 62
    4. Jonathan Huberdeau (LW) 2010-2011 Saint John Sea Dogs 67 43 62 105 1.57 88 59
    WHL
    # PLAYER SEASON TEAM GP G A TP PPG PIM +/-
    1. Nic Petan (W/C) 2012-2013 Portland Winterhawks 71 46 74 120 1.69 43 68
    2. Pavel Brendl (RW) 1998-1999 Calgary Hitmen 68 73 61 134 1.97 40 68
    3. Nolan Patrick (C) 2015-2016 Brandon Wheat Kings 72 41 61 102 1.42 41 51
    4. Evander Kane (LW) 2008-2009 Vancouver Giants 61 48 48 96 1.57 89 51
    OHL
    # PLAYER SEASON TEAM GP G A TP PPG PIM +/-
    1. Connor McDavid (C) 2014-2015 Erie Otters 47 44 76 120 2.55 48 60
    2. Alex DeBrincat (RW/LW) 2014-2015 Erie Otters 68 51 53 104 1.53 73 59
    3. Victor Mete (D) 2015-2016 London Knights 68 8 30 38 0.56 18 53
    4. Ryan Ellis (D) 2008-2009 Windsor Spitfires 57 22 67 89 1.56 57 52

    Are those the best 4 players in those junior leagues in their under-18 seasons? Maybe not, but damn, they’re tracking well.

  191. godot10 says:

    VOR:
    I chose the year with a random number generator. The league was chosen using a modified random number table. The position I actually drew from a bowl.

    The players weren’t the point.

    I have now replicated it 20 times. In that sample as well as 1979 I have 2003, 1980, 1984, and 2011. Now in 2003, another non representative year I picked OHL Right Wingers out of the hat. The only player of those three who played in the NHL was the hugger mugger himself, Zach Stortini. Zach’s boxcars are by miles the worst in the triad.

    For those who don’t know the first data set was 1979, the league was the Q, and the position was center. That gave me Guy Carbonneau (140 points), Alan Haworth (120 points), and Mike Krushelnyski. All three guys boxcars suggest they had a real chance at an NHL career.

    One of my own hacks is that there is a threshold, a level of demonstrated performance, above which players will get at bats in the NHL. For the Q I usually use a point a game in your draft year. I am not fanatic about it. And either Mike arrived later or was injured so I put him in that camp.

    Alan Haworth the best ppg player of the three lost is career to concussion, though he went on playing in Europe – less risk. He is a scout now. I believe for Washington.

    Mike Krushelnyski won cups with Edmonton and as an assistant coach in Detroit in 1997. He had the single best offensive year of the three playing with Wayne Gretzky.

    But by far the longest and greatest career belongs to three time Cup winner, three time Selke winner Guy Carbonneau. From his numbers in junior you’d have bet on him being a super star in the NHL.

    But nothing I can find and certainly not his boxcars predict a defensive genius.

    How did you randomize the start point of your random number generator? A random number generator selecting the strongest draft in NHL history (a double cohort, two draft years in one), is an extremely fortuitous outcome.

    Carbonneau, like Gilmour, became a defensive genius out of of necessity and desperation. Both were desperate to stay in the NHL. Both were “anti-Marc-Pouiliot”. Intelligence and will.

    Montreal had just traded Doug Jarvis to Washington. The centres in front of him were Ryan Walter, Doug Wickenheiser, Pierre Mondou, and Keith Acton (and Rejean Houle) The open centre spot was the spot next to Bob Gainey.

  192. VOR says:

    godot10: How did you randomize the start point of your random number generator?A random number generator selecting the strongest draft in NHL history (a double cohort, two draft years in one), is an extremely fortuitous outcome.

    Carbonneau, like Gilmour, became a defensive genius out of of necessity and desperation.Both were desperate to stay in the NHL.Both were “anti-Marc-Pouiliot”.Intelligence and will.

    Montreal had just traded Doug Jarvis to Washington.The centres in front of him were Ryan Walter, Doug Wickenheiser, Pierre Mondou, and Keith Acton (and Rejean Houle) The open centre spot was the spot next to Bob Gainey.

    I threw squares.

  193. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nuge is practicing today.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca