Game Three 2018-19: Oilers at Rangers

by Lowetide

They’re just kids when they arrive, some of them can’t grow a beard for love nor money for several years. Fans give them names you would associate with kids (Baby Nuge) and trudge through the land of ice and snow to cheer for them. These young men matter in this city, grown men and women fret over each of the entry seasons. By the final year of the first contract, you should get an idea about what kind of player the team drafted, where he fits on the depth chart. For Jesse, we are here.

The Edmonton Oilers need a win in Manhattan today, and have a good chance to do it if the team can stay out of the penalty box. The 2016-17 formula (McDavid outscores 5-on-5, Talbot stops pucks) went 2-4 against NJD and Boston, the downbeat in competition today should be enough for the road team to win while skating on the most expensive real estate on planet earth. All is cost was 60 guilders.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Special offer is here, less than $3 a month!

  • New Lowetide: Panic storm on the horizon as Oilers remain a one-man show
  • New Justin Bourne: How hockey has changed for the better and allowed its young stars to shine.
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson’s early season performance in the SHL.
  • Lowetide: Practice lines in Boston, anger in Edmonton and Kailer Yamamoto remains on the No. 2 line.
  • Jonathan Willis: At 34, is Kyle Brodziak just too old to help the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Why Todd McLellan’s name keeps showing up on those ‘first coach fired in 2018-19’ lists
  • James Mirtle: Sizing up the NHL 2018-19 by age, height and age (Oilers content)
  • Black Dog: Edmonton’s future is bright, but there are all kinds of questions in the present.
  • Lowetide: Evan Bouchard survives first game.
  • Lowetide: Ryan McLeod takes demotion in stride, while a Condo of Condors impress on opening weekend.
  • Jonathan Willis: On AHL opening night, Caleb Jones and friends make it clear they want NHL jobs.
  • Lowetide: Orange, white and blue October: In 1979, the Oilers rocked the NHL.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: After the death of his father, Sweden trip holds special significance for Adam Larsson, and one of his opponents.
  • Scott Wheeler: How the eye test fails to properly evaluate Evan Bouchard.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why the Nuge-McDavid-Rattie line has been so successful.
  • Lowetide: The 2018-19 Oilers are in a period of transition.

JESSE, CHIA AND TMAC

General managers treat their own draft picks like the Hope Diamond. When a new general manager comes in, he normally takes very little time in dispatching the previous regime’s stuff and replacing them with a pile of his own pure stock. Sound crazy? Peter Chiarelli’s initial first-round pick was Zach Hamill, No. 8 overall in 2007. He was an overager, his production dipped in junior draft +1, he never got to 15 goals or 45 points in the AHL, but it took Chiarelli four pro seasons before he gave up on him. His second-round pick that year, Tommy Cross, outlasted Chiarelli in the organization while never actually threatening to become an everyday defenseman. PC did trade his first rounders, but not until he thought the Stanley was clearly in view (and then after). On the other hand, Taylor Hall and Nail Yakupov are long gone.

Todd McLellan wants to win, no, check that, he has to win. So, when the general manager sends him a roster with one position that features 75 percent unproven players (right wing), two of whom are first-round picks by the GM, that’s going to cause some sleepless nights. Todd McLellan is here.

Jesse Puljujarvi has enormous potential but three years after his draft he remains in purgatory. The team didn’t handle him in the textbook (Rantanen) way. Now, with the final year of entry just starting, JP is running on empty after brimming with confidence not so very long ago. What do they do with these kids?

I still believe in this player, believe the organization does as well. I think we’re reaching a pressure point, with the breaking news beginning with the classic line “it’s nobody’s fault, but….” and to be honest there’s no way to know how this goes down. Seems like we’re at the part of the book where the author writes “little did he know” except, in this Oilers’ edition, we don’t know who “he” is. Yet.

COMPARABLES

Early days, but if he’s losing confidence (and he’s not getting time with 97 or 29) then we’re about to see a 2018-19 season that does not resemble the other names on this list. What would happen if McLellan stapled Puljujarvi to the Draisaitl line? Perhaps we’ll never know.

OILERS IN OCTOBER

  • Oilers in October 2015: 0-3-0, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in October 2016: 2-1-0, goal differential +1
  • Oilers in October 2017: 1-2-0, goal differential -1
  • Oilers in October 2018: 0-2-0, goal differential -6

A win today, especially a clean win, would put the Oilers on track with 2015 and 2017 October, with only the playoff season standing out. We don’t know how this game will go today, but the Oilers were good early in the first period and then settled down for the final 40 minutes of the game.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

  • On the road to: Sweden to play NJD (Expected: 0-0-1) (Actual: 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Boston, NYR, Winnipeg (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Boston, Nashville, Pittsburgh, Washington (Expected 1-3-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Nashville, Chicago (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Minnesota (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 3-6-2, 8 points in 11 games 
  • Current results: 0-2-0, 0 points after two games

Get the first goal, stay the hell out of the penalty box, aggressively forecheck and make those defensemen on the Rangers make decisions quickly. I’m not one for hyperbole (that’s a lie) but this is a massive game for the coach. I expect the Oilers to come out flying.

OH, THAT’S INTERESTING

  • Elliotte Friedman on the current state of the Oilers: “I just think the heat internally in that organization. I was just told this morning it’s a really tense place.” Source

This season should be about winning 45 games, pushing for the top of the division, and hammering old people in Anaheim and Los Angeles. Even with the department of youth, Edmonton has the best player in the game, a couple of 20-goal scorers and three defensemen who can do things to help them win. Cam Talbot can stop pucks and is doing so at even strength this season (.923 save percentage, No. 9 among goalies with 50+ saves so far this season). The heat is on. A win today eases the pressure, if only ’til Tuesday.

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Woodguy v2.0

who: Thanks for posting this.
Iread the first thread. More support for the signing than I even remember. Lot of guys with egg on their face.

I liked Lucic and still like him more than most here.

Never liked the contract.

Woodguy v2.0

Wilde: You might get that. Benson and Marody are better hockey players today than much of this Oilers roster, and Benson’s a 2nd round pick that they like a lot.

Yeah, the holes on wing are drastic enough that if they’re ready for a shot, give it to them.

Woodguy v2.0

treevojo: It is said to be honey flavoured with very little peat. She is not big on the robust flavours.

You should try it.

I really like that as well.

She was the first to bring home a bottle and sent me down the path of trying some different ones last year.

I’ll give it a try.

Not a peat fan at all.

Give me hardwood charcoal all day long

godot10

London Jon: My expectations were exactly the same. Two good years, two okay years, three tough years.

It seems we bypassed the first 5 years and moved straight to about Year 6 of everyone’s expectations…

Why are his hands suddenly so terrible?!?!

Life isn’t linear. He got older. He got slower. Eyesight got worse. The league got faster. The style of defensive play by the league is faster (except under McLellan). Tipping point. Lucic walked into an elevator shift.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: You saw his handling by the coach in training camp.He is clearly “Russian”.

Fans were clamoring for camp to be about the actual NHL players finding their right spots on the team and developing chemistry with their proper linemates and working on special teams. Fans were clamoring to have the roster cut down very early and get the distant bells assigned to their ultimate leagues.

Maksimov was in a group of juniors that had zero chance of playing in the NHL this year and got assigned back with other juniors because he’s a junior player not because of his last name.

London Jon

London Jon: My expectations were exactly the same. Two good years, two okay years, three tough years.

It seems we bypassed the first 5 years and moved straight to about Year 6 of everyone’s expectations…

Why are his hands suddenly so terrible?!?!

It looks like someone won the ‘play on the Oilers 2nd line’ lot at a charity auction

Professor Q

Wow. Just saw the Pettersson Choke Slam.

People calling the “hit” fine are delusional. Matheson was tracking Pettersson for 30 seconds and didn’t even go for a hit – the first part of his body to touch Pettersson was his hand on his throat. He knew exactly what he was doing, and didn’t get called for it.

50 games. That’s what he should get if the NHL was actually serious.

London Jon

Ryan: I was wrong.

Okay guys as Oilers fans, we’re tortured souls who always see a half empty glass.
Let’s allow ourselves a modicum of happiness and rejoice over the first four years of the Lucic contract and worry about the other three years later
.”

My expectations were exactly the same. Two good years, two okay years, three tough years.

It seems we bypassed the first 5 years and moved straight to about Year 6 of everyone’s expectations…

Why are his hands suddenly so terrible?!?!

who

Woodguy v2.0:
who,

Wasn’t his signing largely based on his strong analytics?

Peter signed him.Did Peter mention his strong analytics?

I honestly don’t remember.

Seems to me all I heard from the Lucic believers was what a possession monster he was and how the Oilers would be able to cycle the puck endlessly when he was on the ice.

Here’s a couple threads from that day so you can read it instead of trying to remember it:

https://lowetide.ca/2016/07/01/oilers-sign-lucic/#comments

https://lowetide.ca/2016/07/01/blister-in-the-sun/

Thanks for posting this.
I read the first thread. More support for the signing than I even remember. Lot of guys with egg on their face.

Ryan

London Jon: I wonder if NJ does that trade

I was wrong.

Okay guys as Oilers fans, we’re tortured souls who always see a half empty glass.
Let’s allow ourselves a modicum of happiness and rejoice over the first four years of the Lucic contract and worry about the other three years later
.”

London Jon

London Jon: ‘AT LEAST as valuable’. OUCH!!!!

So this poster would trade, say, Taylor Hall PLUS a 2nd rounder for Milan Lucic. Their cap hit is, OF COURSE, the same…

I wonder if NJ does that trade ?????

London Jon

Woodguy v2.0: Kilty McBagpipes sure loved it:

No my position is a player who delivers game altering hits, aggressive forecheck and makes the players around him more comfortable on the ice is AT LEAST as valuable as a one man show who “pushes the river.” This is McDavid’s team whether you like it or not.


We tried it your way for 5 years. You had your chance now it’s Chia’s way and he has won a Stanley Cup. Have you?

https://lowetide.ca/2016/07/01/blister-in-the-sun/#comment-546887

‘AT LEAST as valuable’. OUCH!!!!

So this poster would trade, say, Taylor Hall PLUS a 2nd rounder for Milan Lucic. Their cap hit is, OF COURSE, the same…

who

OriginalPouzar:
Lucic was a positive possession player last year, even without McDavid.

Lucic was a bad player last year. And the year before.

Wilde

Is… is Erik Gustafsson worse than anyone we’re playing at 3LD?

Wilde

Woodguy v2.0: I want Benson playing LW with Leon this year.

You might get that. Benson and Marody are better hockey players today than much of this Oilers roster, and Benson’s a 2nd round pick that they like a lot.

treevojo

Woodguy v2.0: I’m not familiar with Scapa, what does it taste like?

It is said to be honey flavoured with very little peat. She is not big on the robust flavours.

You should try it.

I really like that as well.

She was the first to bring home a bottle and sent me down the path of trying some different ones last year.

Woodguy v2.0

treevojo: That might be exactly what it is as well.

I don’t have the best sense of smell anymore so that peat/smoke really gets my attention.

In saying that my wife wasn’t a fan.

Her scotch of choice is Scapa.

I’m not familiar with Scapa, what does it taste like?

Woodguy v2.0

ArmchairGM: Benson – McLeod – Maksimov could be dynamite together. I’m hoping we get to see it next year.

I want Benson playing LW with Leon this year.

treevojo

Woodguy v2.0: Good to hear.

Some people like the robust peat/smoke of a scotch, but I prefer my whiskey cleaner tasting.

That might be exactly what it is as well.

I don’t have the best sense of smell anymore so that peat/smoke really gets my attention.

In saying that my wife wasn’t a fan.

Her scotch of choice is Scapa.

Woodguy v2.0

who,

Wasn’t his signing largely based on his strong analytics?

Peter signed him. Did Peter mention his strong analytics?

I honestly don’t remember.

Seems to me all I heard from the Lucic believers was what a possession monster he was and how the Oilers would be able to cycle the puck endlessly when he was on the ice.

Here’s a couple threads from that day so you can read it instead of trying to remember it:

https://lowetide.ca/2016/07/01/oilers-sign-lucic/#comments

https://lowetide.ca/2016/07/01/blister-in-the-sun/

Woodguy v2.0

leadfarmer: Nope, this eye test crowd was screaming this is not the Lucic type player you are looking for

Kilty McBagpipes sure loved it:

No my position is a player who delivers game altering hits, aggressive forecheck and makes the players around him more comfortable on the ice is AT LEAST as valuable as a one man show who “pushes the river.” This is McDavid’s team whether you like it or not.

We tried it your way for 5 years. You had your chance now it’s Chia’s way and he has won a Stanley Cup. Have you?

https://lowetide.ca/2016/07/01/blister-in-the-sun/#comment-546887

Woodguy v2.0

Bag of Pucks: What’s wrong with chest muffins?

Nothing wrong if they’re on your wife/girlfriend.

Not as good if they’re coming off a Dman’s stick.

Woodguy v2.0

treevojo:
Woodguy v2.0,

I have been sipping on some writers tears today.

$52 at NSLC.

I have enjoyed it.

Not as much as some of the scotch I have tried.

I think I will try the redbreast 12 once this bottle is gone.

Good to hear.

Some people like the robust peat/smoke of a scotch, but I prefer my whiskey cleaner tasting.

Woodguy v2.0

jtblack: as WG would say … Proof?

Goals Saved Above Average. (via corsica.hockey)

Basically is xGF but since its for goalies is like xGA. Compare their results to average SV% on similar shot across league using 5 year averages.

Median in the league is 0 GSAA (natch)

Last 3 years of Vasilevskiy:

Player Season GSAA
ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY 15/16 -5.82
ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY 16/17 -6.79
ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY 17/18 -1.97

Below average each year.

I like to normalize GSAA by expressing it per 100 shots against.

Player Season GSAA/100
ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY 15/16 -0.90
ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY 16/17 -0.46
ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY 17/18 -0.09

He’s never been above average in this.

Also,

If we look at the last 3 years of Gibson:

Player Season GSAA
JOHN.GIBSON 15/16 +1.16
JOHN.GIBSON 16/17 +21.89
JOHN.GIBSON 17/18 +32.51

Expressed in /100 shots

Player Season GSAA/100
JOHN.GIBSON 15/16 +0.12
JOHN.GIBSON 16/17 +1.52
JOHN.GIBSON 17/18 +1.74

Gibson is elite and has either lead the NHL or close over the last two years.

Note: these are all situation, not just 5v5

Wilde

Also, they should have Pettersson off the ice for a long time. That looked so, so bad. He was wobbling like about as bad as I’ve ever seen.

Vancouver doesn’t have much to lose by keeping him off the ice, although apparently they didn’t retaliate because they “needed the two points” so perhaps they feel otherwise, which would be unfortunate.

Woodguy v2.0

leadfarmer: So Faulk and Brodie are 3rd pairing D and Vasi is below average
I think Woodmoney could use some additional calibrating

Don’t let their results stand in the way of your opinion.

Also,

Don’t think I said Brodie is 3rd pair, just that he is a huge step down from Hamilton and had meh results in a 2nd pairing role for 2 years.

ArmchairGM

GMB3: I thought Maksimov was left handed, just played right wing?

Would be a classic TMac decision to move him from his off wing

That’s Safin you’re thinking of – shoots left / plays rw. Maksimov is right / right.

Wilde

For reference Andrei Svechnikov had 0.25.

ArmchairGM

Bos8: Oh, them Rushins.

Turf his ass quick

But, but – 6’3 RHsniper.Go with McLeod?

Nein!

Benson – McLeod – Maksimov could be dynamite together. I’m hoping we get to see it next year.

Wilde

Bos8,

They play an unambitious game, that’s my number one issue with both the NHL and AHL squads.

Current top forwards in adj. points per game on http://fenwicka.com/shiny/draft_app/

Kappo Kakko – 0.38

Dillon Hamaliuk – 0.31

Ryan Suzuki – 0.29

Kirby Dach – 0.27

Dylan Cozens/Peyton Krebs – 0.23

Kappo Kakko showed up repeatedly in the group highest scoring Junior Liiga forward (when I was making a point about Puljujarvi) and he’s honestly looking like the best guy since Barkov.

Also none of the
USNDTP guys are in this database, that’s why Hughes and company are missing

ArmchairGM

godot10: But he is in McLellan’s doghouse already.

The Russian Factor.

godot10

OriginalPouzar: Is he even Russian?

There are competing reports about him being born in Ontario or in Russia.

Either way, he’s never really played hockey in Russia – played Bantam AAA and Midget AAA in Toronto.

You saw his handling by the coach in training camp. He is clearly “Russian”.

OriginalPouzar

€√¥£€^$:
OriginalPouzar,

Dare to dream….

Unfortunately I am half-hoping the team goes 1-12, and TMac is gone when they are 1-6, while Chia is gone at 1-12…and Viveros is given the HC reins and the team goes on an 8-game win streak… but the team will likely go 4-6/5-7 and stay close to .500 through Christmas and be competing for a wild card spot until trade deadline.

When ultimately injuries catch up and this team with not much depth finishes with 80+ points…and while TMac is let go after the season, there are no changes at the top….. because injuries.At least it’s great draft year

Disclaimer: So we CAN have nice things, but the people we entrust with the nice things seem to have a knack for turning diamonds into dogshit.

SIGH…..Sorry for the negativity OP, but the coach has finally convinced me that Godot is right.

To each their own but I am hoping for a nice win in Winnipeg.

A 2-2 start against 3 top NHL teams (yes, I think the Devils are a top team this year) and an East coast afternoon game – all on the road – that would be a fine start to the year and we would see game over game over game over game improvement (I expect improvement if we do beat Winnipeg)

OriginalPouzar

Bos8: The problem for me is that I still don’t recognize who is who’due to long range camera.

I have the same issue.

OriginalPouzar

Lucic was a positive possession player last year, even without McDavid.

Wilde

jtblack: as WG would say … Proof?

leadfarmer,

There’s a strong difference in xGA and GA in Gibson’s goaltending (the good way) whereas Vasilevsky basically makes the exact saves that an average goaltender would based on shot type and location, excepting for a few stretches where he didn’t, the bad way.

Tampa Bay is actually a really good checking team that doesn’t give up much at all. It’s not tremendously difficult to ‘tend for them, suspect if Gibson and Vasi switched places Tampa Bay’s by far the strongest team in the league.

(I don’t usually jump in on these things, but I’m 99% sure this is what wg is referring to)

€√¥£€^$

OriginalPouzar,

Dare to dream….

Unfortunately I am half-hoping the team goes 1-12, and TMac is gone when they are 1-6, while Chia is gone at 1-12…and Viveros is given the HC reins and the team goes on an 8-game win streak… but the team will likely go 4-6/5-7 and stay close to .500 through Christmas and be competing for a wild card spot until trade deadline.

When ultimately injuries catch up and this team with not much depth finishes with 80+ points…and while TMac is let go after the season, there are no changes at the top….. because injuries. At least it’s great draft year 🙂

Disclaimer: So we CAN have nice things, but the people we entrust with the nice things seem to have a knack for turning diamonds into dogshit.

SIGH…..Sorry for the negativity OP, but the coach has finally convinced me that Godot is right.

Ribs

I feel like there should be a reminder that there are no guarantees with analytics. There shouldn’t be any
“Gotcha!” moments after things roll out. They help you see trends and enhance your betting position, but there is never any guarantee.

I think both the numbers people and the eyes people thought we’d get more out of Lucic than we have got so far. There weren’t many predicting he would get nothing done with McDavid and be reduced to running people over for a living two years in.

—-

That said… Is there any chance in the world that a coaching change could get this guy going again? I’m on the fence about a coaching change at this point. I want to believe McLellan can get things done. I really do. His Sharks teams were great. The off season hires should have changed some of the obvious things, but it’s hard to see it right now.

It was nice to see him go balls out today for a win. Does today’s coach go balls out every game these days? Should we be seeing 93-29-97 more often? Is it sustainable? McLellan appears to be a bit old school so he may be adverse to this strategy. Eakins was the complete opposite and failed miserably. What is the median? Does the team have the secondary players needed to post positive results? The team is so young that it must be incredibly difficult to find that balance. Do we give a pass for this? Passes are hard to come by these days.

We know how quickly a season can be over. We learned the hard way over the past decade. We need to see some urgency from these guys. We need to see it now. It seems silly to say this three games into the season, but it is entirely necessary.

Bos8

GMB3: Lots of chip and chase from Bakersfield?

How did Marody and Benson look? and Jones and Bear? if you don’t mind me asking

The problem for me is that I still don’t recognize who is who’due to long range camera. Can’t see the close plays. Marody, Benson and Hebig are small, probably six foot on skates, quick not fast. They’re still shaking hands, no cohesion. Jones and Bear didn’t stand out in their strengths. The many penalties made for choppy hockey, no flow

Tucson PPs were a non factor but 7 PKs do disrupt the defending team.

Still a newby team. A lot of effort, minimal results.

kgo

GMB3:
HT Joe,

Lucic’s contract was ridiculed by most of the analytics heavy posters here. It was the eye test crowd that was exited for moar biggar

I’m primarily an eye test guy who was mostly pleased with the Lucic signing ( I figured we’d get 4/5 good years out of him, and would be able to jettison him right as his NMC expired…

Now, based on my eyes, I think Lucic needs to be deployed the way Steve Macintyre was….4th line minutes at best, and only against heavy teams….press box against fast skilled opponents…If he regains his confidence and effectiveness then sure, bump up his minutes.

At this point his contract could park the Titanic atop the Marianas Trench.

GMB3

Bos8:
Final score Tucson 2-1.BC got called on 7 to 3 penalties again.Condors dominated in flurries but couldn’t shoot straight.Still early in the season so any trends premature.The camerawork is bad.One camera center ice.

Overall – God I hate chip and chase.

Lots of chip and chase from Bakersfield?

How did Marody and Benson look? and Jones and Bear? if you don’t mind me asking

Bos8

Final score Tucson 2-1. BC got called on 7 to 3 penalties again. Condors dominated in flurries but couldn’t shoot straight. Still early in the season so any trends premature. The camerawork is bad. One camera center ice.

Overall – God I hate chip and chase.

HT Joe

GMB3:
HT Joe,

Lucic’s contract was ridiculed by most of the analytics heavy posters here. It was the eye test crowd that was exited for moar biggar

Yes

Scungilli Slushy

If you use Fezzik in the right role you have a heavy duty weapon no one else has.

If you aren’t capable of, or free to do that, you have a very expensive side of beef exactly in your way.

leadfarmer

GMB3:
HT Joe,

Lucic’s contract was ridiculed by most of the analytics heavy posters here. It was the eye test crowd that was exited for moar biggar

Nope, this eye test crowd was screaming this is not the Lucic type player you are looking for

who

HT Joe: Can you find some quotes to support this claim?Seriously… I’d love to see this if it’s true.

I remember some people trying to justify the signing after the fact by referencing relatively strong possession numbers, but there was a lot of general concern about his age, and the potential for performance drop off.I remain under the impression that Lucic was signed primarily due to his physicality, which the team legitimately was lacking at the time – having a prior relationship with Chia certainly would have helped too.His boxcars were okay at the time of signing, and a lot of people felt that his boxcars would rise substantially when playing with McDavid.

However, to imply that the Lucic signing is a black eye for analytics doesn’t really smell right to me.I seem to remember many people’s optimism limited to “the contract should be okay for 1-3 years and then get progressively worse afterwards”.Many strong believers of analytics, however, were very unhappy with the concept of replacing Hall’s minutes with Lucic’s minutes (and they would appear to be proven correct so far).

You are right. Most people on this blog didn’t like the contract, specifically the length of it.
But I remember some of these same people saying they would happy to pay him 6 million for 3 or 4 years because they felt he would be an effective player for that long. Turns out he wasn’t worth 6 million for 1 year.
And his possession numbers were definitely used to demonstrate how effective he was.
Personally I don’t think Lucic has changed much from the player he was 6 or 8 years ago. But the game has changed and that is a good thing.
I love watching all these small, shifty, skilled players in the game today. Beats the hell of watching a bunch of hulks plodding up and down the ice.
I want to watch the guys who can do the stuff I could never do.

GMB3

HT Joe,

Lucic’s contract was ridiculed by most of the analytics heavy posters here. It was the eye test crowd that was exited for moar biggar

Foege Foegele Torpe

OriginalPouzar: I don’t put Hebig in the same category with the other two – great year this past year in the WHL but he was an over-ager and one of the oldest players in the WHL.

Should be a solid Condor but will need quite a bit of development to give himself a chance.

Hebig falls under the beggars can’t be choosers umbrella
Try it from another angle Captain Positive:
20 yr old undrafted Oiler signing enjoying early success in the AHL!

HT Joe

who: The counter arguement is the Lucic signing. Wasn’t his signing largely based on his strong analytics?

Can you find some quotes to support this claim? Seriously… I’d love to see this if it’s true.

I remember some people trying to justify the signing after the fact by referencing relatively strong possession numbers, but there was a lot of general concern about his age, and the potential for performance drop off. I remain under the impression that Lucic was signed primarily due to his physicality, which the team legitimately was lacking at the time – having a prior relationship with Chia certainly would have helped too. His boxcars were okay at the time of signing, and a lot of people felt that his boxcars would rise substantially when playing with McDavid.

However, to imply that the Lucic signing is a black eye for analytics doesn’t really smell right to me. I seem to remember many people’s optimism limited to “the contract should be okay for 1-3 years and then get progressively worse afterwards”. Many strong believers of analytics, however, were very unhappy with the concept of replacing Hall’s minutes with Lucic’s minutes (and they would appear to be proven correct so far).

Bos8

OriginalPouzar: Are you sure he’s ridden enough buses?

Heh

That’s a pretty small team but they‘re challenging all over the ice.