Walking on Sunshine

It began like so many nights, your favourite blogger throwing cups and saucers hither and yon, turning the air blue and causing the dog a terrible fright. Edmonton’s third pairing looked poor, the team was outclassed on most every sortie and I entertained the idea we’d see a trade or other move sometime in the morning. Alas, this young Oilers team, who did show some spark after going down 3-1, flattened the Jets in the third period to get things back to fours. The Darnell Nurse goal? Well. That was nice. The pass from McDavid to Rattie? Otherworldly.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Special offer is here, less than $3 a month!

  • New Eric Duhatschek: Oilers finally getting a goal without Connor McDavid’s help and Edmonton captain couldn’t be happier.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Grant Fuhr talks about his journey, drug use and the state of goaltending.
  • New Lowetide: Math offers a surprising option for Leon Draisaitl’s struggling No. 2 line
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Patience preached as Jesse Puljujarvi attempts to carve out his spot in the Oilers lineup.
  • New Corey Pronman: Around the farm. Prospects having early success (Oilers item).
  • Lowetide: College and AHL prospect update.
  • Lowetide: Panic storm on the horizon as Oilers remain a one-man show
  • Justin Bourne: How hockey has changed for the better and allowed its young stars to shine.
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson’s early season performance in the SHL.
  • Lowetide: Practice lines in Boston, anger in Edmonton and Kailer Yamamoto remains on the No. 2 line.
  • Jonathan Willis: At 34, is Kyle Brodziak just too old to help the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Why Todd McLellan’s name keeps showing up on those ‘first coach fired in 2018-19’ lists

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom-Larsson went 18-10 in 16:06, rocking chair defense saw them post 13-6 shots, 1-0 goals, 2-1 in HDSC. Impressive. Faced the Connor-Schiefele-Wheeler line 8:21, 8-7 Corsi and 5-5 shots (1-0 Swedish duo in goals). Edmonton won the head-to-head battle of the titans, it helps having McDavid along for 11:09.
  • Nurse-Russell played 20:25, going 19-14 Corsi for 5-on-5, 7-9 shots, 0-1 goals. Faced Schiefele 8:05, going 13-11 and zero goals (5-6 shots). McDavid played with this pairing only 6:24. Nurse’s goal was a Bobby Orr beauty, goalie played it poorly but so did the Jets’ defender.
  • Garrison-Benning damned near lost the game in the first period. Very bad! Went 11-16 Corsi for 5-on-5 in 8:34, 1-2 in goals and I think the general manager should be aggressive in adding some help here. Kevin Gravel? Went 8-12, 1-2 against the Lowry line, had no answer for that impressive trio (Tanev-Copp). Benning settled in with Nurse (1:25, 1-1 Corsi), and Klefbom (2-0, 1:15) and now I’m wondering if the Leftorium isn’t deep enough.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 29 of 33, .879. It would be easy to criticize him but the goalie made some big stops, including a late breakaway that would have been a heartbreaker.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Khaira-Brodziak-Rieder were 8-3 in 6:52, 1-0 HDSC and no goals. They were effective if quiet offensively (Khaira with the great chance). There was plenty of line juggling, so it’s difficult to get a full measure of this group, I’d be fine with seeing them again. Brodziak needs to be more involved but he’s still adjusting.
  • Nugent-Hopkins-McDavid-Rattie were 18-10 in 16:03, 11-6 shots, 2-0 in goals, 3-1 in HDSC. Seven offensive and three defensive zone starts, that’s a wrinkle. Went 14-9, 2-0 goals against Morrissey-Trouba, the righty caught McDavid mid-game along the wall and I’m still worried. Were 11-8 in 12:34 against Schiefele, 97 is getting a steady diet of the best available. Rattie had four HDSC. His goal was a fabulous shot off a brilliant McDavid rush. How many times can he do that over a season? Rattie is on pace for 20.5 goals this season.
  • Caggiula-Strome-Puljujarvi were 8-4 in 7:43, 6-3 shots and 0-1 goals. Strome also played well with Lucic and Yamamoto when McLellan flipped the lines (5-5) and Puljujarvi scored when the coach zoomed him to the No. 1 line. Need to be more dynamic. I say it every post-game. They know! I know. We know.
  • Lucic-Draisaitl-Yamamoto were 5-7 in 6:34, 0-1 goals. Leon moved to a line with Caggiula and Puljujarvi for a time, they had success (5-7 but did get a HDSC). Puljujarvi jumped on a line with Nuge and McDavid to get a goal. Yamamoto jumped on a line with Strome and looked good. Leon had more chances but seemed to be tentative, an example being on a partial breakaway he chose to turn into a two-on-one. Draisaitl didn’t drive the net with his usual abandon. Concerning. Leon got the Morrow-Myers pair (12-14, 6-8 shots, 0-1 goals, two HDSC for and against), McLellan has to get this line untracked.
  • Lucic went 7-6 Corsi events 5-on-5 without Leon, Draisaitl going 8-8 without the big winger.

OILERS IN OCTOBER

  • Oilers in October 2015: 0-4-0, goal differential -8
  • Oilers in October 2016: 3-1-0, goal differential +2
  • Oilers in October 2017: 1-3-0, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in October 2018: 2-2-0, goal differential -4

The great thing about last night’s victory is that the 2018 team has a little distance between themselves and the two teams listed who missed out on the playoffs. That’s a big deal, even this early.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

  • On the road to: Sweden to play NJD (Expected: 0-0-1) (Actual: 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Boston, NYR, Winnipeg (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: Boston, Nashville, Pittsburgh, Washington (Expected 1-3-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Nashville, Chicago (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Minnesota (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 3-6-2, 8 points in 11 games 
  • Current results: 2-2-0, 4 points after four games

I projected the Oilers to be 1-2-1 (three points) by now, so the team is ahead of my prediction. The home stand sounds like a blessing but good grief there are no easy pieces over the next week. I picked the Boston game as a win, mostly because of one the greatest games I’ve had as a fan (took my daughter, she loved it and Martin Marincin scored in the shootout. She’s been a hockey fan since, that’s a memory I’ll hold forever). Can they get 11 points out of this month? It would be a huge help. Best to take it as it comes.

DID HE, OR DIDN’T HE?

This morning, I’m reminded of the Gretzky days, when grown men would agree “he meant to do that” and then shake their heads in awe. Did he mean to do that? I agree with this take. If McDavid had bobbled the puck, he would have made an attempt to recover.

LINES FOR BOSTON?

Hell if I know. Jesse Puljujarvi scored while standing in for Rattie, who also scored while on the top line. Todd McLellan said “Jesse played well most of the night, he looks like he’s starting to regain that confidence.” I would like to see him get power-play time and a Leon-Puljujarvi audition seems inevitable.

NURSE!

What a terrific goal. He’s playing over 21 minutes a night at 5-on-5, he is tied for No. 20 overall in even-strength scoring by defensemen (1-2-3) and playing monster minutes. The general manager needs to find some help, but in the meantime Nurse (and the Swedish pairing) have played well enough to get the Oilers here. A quick note on Kris Russell so far: he’s exactly where you expect him to be, lower part of the rel. He’s defending too much and he’s not a great passer. However, he stepped in on the second pair and can stay there until Matt Benning finds his way or the general manager finds an alternative. That has value.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A crowded house today on the show, a combination of euphoria over an Oilers win and euphoria over reefer madness. I should watch that again. At 10, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. Oilers win! Now 2-2. What’s next?We’ll identify the major areas Peter Chiarelli will need to tweak in the coming days.
  • Cole Young, PBR (Professional Bull Riders). The toughest guys I’ve ever met are bull riders, and Cole will be part of the Edmonton Classic this weekend. We’ll chat about the sport and Cole’s success.
  • Jon Campbell, Sports Analyst at OddsShark.com. The NBA season is just underway, are the Raptors a good bet to win the east? Golden State Warriors again? Houston? Boston? 76ers? What about the Lakers? We’ll chat about some college ball as well, any questions you’d like answered?
  • Jeff Paulus and Sean Fleming, FC Edmonton. One of the great things about Edmonton is how many great soccer people there are. Eddies hired a great one yesterday, we’ll chat.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Tune in!

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348 Responses to "Walking on Sunshine"

« Older Comments
  1. Side says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They’re setting up 93 running it off the left half wall so you have 4 one timers now.

    Nuge is an old school PP witch and like the idea of 97 roaming in and out of shooting lanes on the right side.

    Nuge also takes the puck to the hole and shoots as well.

    I’m cautiously optimistic that this set up will work pretty well.

    Running 97 as QB off right half wall wasn’t good.

    McDavid roaming is the way to go, imo.

    If I were the defending team, I would be more worried about whether a roaming McDavid is being covered well enough which could lead to some nerves and hopefully mistakes.

    Compared to everyone watching McDavid QB the PP and thus having a better chance at anticipating what he will do.

    I’d rather be able to see McDavid infront of me then have him be over my shoulder or behind me.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    our host clamouring for a whole bunch of trades and firings,

    So they guy who has preached patience and “keep your powder dry” is clamouring for a whole bunch of trades and firings.

    What colour is the sky in your world?

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan McLeod was named to the OHL team for the Russian super series and Olivier Rodrigue named to the QMJHL team.

    No huge surprise as both have shots at the Canadian World Junior team.

    If McLeod keeps up his play, he’ll be a lock – Rodrigue will need to pick it up as he was probably a bit of a long-shot coming in to the season (should be on the team next year).

    I assume Maksimov and Samorukov will both be on the Russian team.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Damn – Safin still not in the lineup for Halifax.

  5. Doug McLachlan says:

    bendelson:
    What the hell… for the third year in a row, I’ll suggest trading for Alex Petrovic.
    Why?Depth ist rad and Larsson’s wonky back should make us all nervous.

    Not sure that Petrovic plays higher than third pair for us but if it is a third pair with calm feet, I’m game.

    Are you comfortable with:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Petrovic
    Russell-Benning/Bouchard

    ?

  6. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Great add here, WG. You must already be cringing on the proposed R-R pairing from Mclellan. 🙂

    Do the Oilers have even an analytics department after they chose not to renew Dellow’s contract?

    I can’t honestly think of one instance where I have seen an media make reference to the Oilers analytics department.

    They subscribe to SportlogIQ data, but I not sure if they actually do much with it.

  7. Ribs says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Do they still use Darkhorse?

  8. Abbeef says:

    LMHF#1: In his only playoff appearance for the Oilers he was one of the main reasons the SJ series went so long and they lost to ANA.

    Does not compute. He was terrible in those playoffs.

    This is one of those opinions stated as fact. I liked the Russell, Sekera pairing vs. San Jose.

  9. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    NJD built their team around Halls speed.We did not do so.Neither Hal or Mcdavid.
    Lots of people picked Devils to decline this year which is silly unless they didn’t watch them play.
    We are trying to play catch up with some of these other teams and are trying to reprogram our players from the old game to the new game.The name of the game is speed speed speed
    People are hard on TMac because he doesn’t fit their analytics beliefs but that 3rd period was coached.These guys have not had breakouts like that pretty much ever.
    He doesn’t have the horses to play that way though

    NJD has 3 lines without Hall and they’re doing well.

    I projected NJD to finish out of the playoffs because their 5v5 play was meh last year and they killed 5v4 and that doesn’t always last.

    Now they are killing 5v5 (in a small sample) and I have no idea why.

    Then I read this piece and see a coach of who is coaching his ass off for all 4 lines and 3 pairs.

    They have the 2nd cheapest roster in the league.

    If they continue killing it without many “brand name” players, then this will be very interesting to watch.

    Same with VAN.

    Their coach has a terrible roster (comparatively) competitive so far (and Nielson has grabbed the starter spot). Why?

    I love trying to figure this shit out.

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Sorry I lied… Drai is on a 103 point pace: we can hardly wait untill he starts trying…

    – OK, later skater

    How many points does he have when 97 isn’t on the ice?

  11. Oilman99 says:

    dustrock:
    Regarding Yamamoto, I don’t see anything wrong with him as the skill component on the 3rd line. No pressure for him, hopefully less QoC.Can still PK in a pinch too.

    Yammo needs to go down, get top line ice time, and learn to play against men while scoring on a regular basis,before his confidence starts taking a hit.

  12. Wilde says:

    Bank Shot: I made a replay to godot on his comment about McLellan discarding guys like Pouliot, Hall, Schultz, Pitlick.

    you replied directly to me:

    Bank Shot: Are there still people out there that think Benoit Pouliot would be the answer to any question facing an NHL team?

    Bank Shot:
    He didn’t discard any of them and had time for all of them except Pouliot. Taylor Hall has the most icetime on the team for forwards under Mclellan. Mclellan moved Pitlick up the lineup when he performed. He had no problems with these players besides one.

    I don’t care about any of that, you can tell because I replied only the Pouliot part where you said he “is out of the league so McLellan was right on him”

    Bank Shot: Maybe you really liked Pouliot and are upset about that

    Yes, I’m super upset, shaking at my keyboard as I type this.

    This is another thing straight out of the internet argument playbook – the other guy is mad!!

    Bank Shot: but it would be pretty tough to make a solid case that Pouliot should still be an Oiler. He’s not even in the NHL.

    It’s not really, here’s the case:

    – the NHL is not a perfect meritocracy or even remotely near being one

    – the player had tangible cap-hit reasons to be kept on the team

    – there were players with results tangibly worse than his that stayed

    – like, for example he scored more 5v5 goals than over half of our forwards on the lowest goal-scoring team the next year

    – four of our forwards scored more all-strengths goals than him last year

    – he had the lowest GA/60 on the penalty kill of all our regular PK forwards in 16-17

    – he had the lowest GA/60 on the penalty kill of all Buffalo’s regular PK forwards last year

    I don’t think this is a weak case at all and it took 5 minutes

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Yeah, but we have a plan.

    And $18 burgers!

  14. Richard S.S. says:

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/poulibe01.html
    In his first two Seasons as an Oiler, Benoit Pouliot set near career highs in Minutes Played and Total Points/Goals/Assists. As a Top-6 Winger at that money and term, perhaps that was a little bit of an underachievement. During his third year, the Playoff Run, he had his worst year since the 09-10 Season. He did next to nothing in 13 Playoff Games. There is no way on earth do I keep him on the Team. If Peter Chiarelli must buy him out there was zero market. Last year he was almost as bad.

  15. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Their coach has a terrible roster (comparatively) competitive so far (and Nielson has grabbed the starter spot). Why?

    If Todd wants this team to chip pucks, he should be watching MTL.

    Don’t know if we have the horses for it, but they’re fascinating in motion. Retrieval rate is probably ridiculous.

  16. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q: Weren’t they big news by being one of the first analytics departments in the NHL with Dellow et al. until the wheels fell off?

    Also, I know I must seem like I harp on this a lot. I apologize if it gets annoying. But the London Knights do RHD-RHD pairings frequently (I think Switzerland and Denmark do also). Bouchard is used to it. Could his NHL partners grow used to it too? We shall see…

    No, many team realized the value of data early. SJS was very early on the management side.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Darth Tu,

    What the heck did they give Lucic between the second and third period? It certainly wasn’t Mary Jane. Apparently moving him to the 3rd line made him look more like Lucic of old, who’d have thunk it?

    The QoC (Quality of competition) that Strome sees is significantly less than want Drai sees.

    Playing Looch on the 3rd line puts him in a position to succeed imo.

    Can someone teach me (high level) how to read those categories on Corsica? CF% and TOI% for QoC and QoT?

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    New Improved Darkness,

    I hope you and your lemon tree are well sir.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: It sounds like Koskinen will play NSH.

    Give a Finn a start vs another Finn. (Both Rinne and Saros are Finns)

    Was that on McLellan’s presser today? I listened but got distracted during parts of it and must have missed that.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Reading through today, just wanted to address some comments all over the blog in regard to negative/positive from the blog author. In ALL cases, I try to remove bias and deliver a neutral blog post to start the day. I am not always successful, but that is the goal.

    Also, I don’t write all of the headlines for The Athletic, but I’m not terribly concerned about it. I write the article with my title, and then sometimes an editor will change it. I think, in every case, the change has been an improvement but your mileage may vary.

    Finally, although I try not to tip the scales for conversation here, I was thrilled when Peter Chiarelli arrived and am more pleased with his work now that I see his direction (he is trying not to get fired before kids like Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, McLeod and Maksimov can make a difference).

    I am also far less angry about McLellan than every person on this blog. If you listen to the radio show, it should come as no surprise. I don’t think he’s had the horses, and was disappointed in Chia that he wasn’t more aggressive at the 2017 deadline.

    There. That’s as honest as I can be. You will NOT see me frame articles to reflect my bias because that’s never ever what I’m trying to create on the blog or at The Athletic.

  21. bendelson says:

    Doug McLachlan: Not sure that Petrovic plays higher than third pair for us but if it is a third pair with calm feet, I’m game.

    Are you comfortable with:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Petrovic
    Russell-Benning/Bouchard

    ?

    Am I ‘comfortable’ with it? No, not really.
    Is it an improvement? Yes, clearly.
    Anything that puts Garrison on waivers is a solid step forward.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: Sadly, 3rd line qual comp also exposes the Lack of thrust in Strome’s game.
    He was very good & looked engaged last night,
    Can he have the same type of showing tomorrow?
    Invisible Strome is very noticeable

    Strome was very good the previous game as well.

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side:
    In an interview about the Matthews/McDavid “debate”, McLellan named other great players in the same breath as McDavid and Matthews such as:

    ” Sid and Nathan MacKinnon and Taylor Hall”

    But I guess Todd doesn’t value Hall or something..

    Was Todd not valuing Hall a thing?

    I never heard that.

    His TOI under Todd certainly suggested he valued him at the top of the roster.

  24. godot10 says:

    Side:

    Not sure why posters like godot think Todd didn’t value him enough.

    The Oilers didn’t offer him a contract. Dallas offered him a 3-year deal and within half a season had solidified himself as a legit 3rd line RW.

    The Oilers chose to offer Kassian a contract instead for 3 years at twice the money PItlick got in Dallas. And Kassian solidified himself as a 4th line player in the subsequent season, on the way to a press box player this year.

    Players coaches value tend not to be traded and tend to be offered contracts.

  25. CrazyCoach says:

    Woodguy v2.0: It sounds like Koskinen will play NSH.

    Give a Finn a start vs another Finn. (Both Rinne and Saros are Finns)

    Finland, Finland, Finland,
    The country where I want to be,
    Pony trekking or camping,
    Or just watching TV,
    Finland, Finland, Finland,
    It’s the country for me.

    You’re so near to Russia,
    So far from Japan,
    Quite a long way from Cairo,
    Lots of miles from Vietnam.

  26. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: I still think NJ is going to crash and burn. They are off to a nice start though.

    I had them missing the playoffs pre-season but they’re killing it.

    I think it’s really interesting to watch, especially after reading that piece about the coaches looking for small edges in every spot.

    I love that shit.

  27. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: In Pitlick’s last season here….

    Pitlick got zero games with 10+ minutes of ice in his first ten games.

    He got 12 of those games in his next 21.

    McLellan rewarded his good play.

    If you are going to act like an ass. At least be right.🙂

    If you’re a gonna state things as fact, at least be right.

    🙂

  28. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Many players and teams make hay when the push back is lower. As Oiler fans we know this.

    Teams and players have hot/career seasons. I think discipline gets exposed first, then talent.

    To me the Oilers issues now are more discipline than talent. For example Strome is not a driving player, but he plays smart and has a place at the right price.

    With other teams we’ll see hot starts and slow starts and as the league settles in the best discipline and talent begin to rise.

    I’m not surprised to see the Knights go cold. A lot is mental let down, it remains they outplayed their roster last season IMO, as the Oilers underplayed theirs.

    I think the good guys can win any game. Connor was cagey in his post game. He wanted nothing to do with his record, and told his team they can play with anybody if they want to work hard and get after it.

    So with his crazy abilities he is also quickly becoming a great leader. He is inclusive with his team which is key to what they can become. It may also be affecting Lucic as I doubt he’s HOT anymore.

    And as for that whiff/drop, everyone should watch video of him dry land training. He may have dropped that to Rattie on purpose, or he could have felt the puck not on his stick, knew Rattie was there so created an opening for him. How he plays looks exactly like how he trains. His reactions are so unbelievably fast.

  29. Alpine says:

    I think Dotchin might be something.

    TB actually played him like a top four when he was healthy. We know they cut him because he came in way too heavy, but they could also afford to give him away because of their depth.

    He did play A LOT with Hedman. Like 75% of his TOI. But away from Hedman, he usually broke even and didn’t seem to be getting plum minutes. 60 GF% away from Hedman in 330 mins is good even if Vasilvesky had a lot to do with that (.940 sv% lmao).

    Him and Stralman were quite good together in part of those 330 mins. Dotchin and Coburn meanwhile got absolutely caved in as a pairing. They were at 40% or below in all the shot/chance/goal share categories. He played ~100 mins on each of these pairings.

    In 82 mins away from those three, 60% and up in shots/goals. I used natstat for this, so i’m not that trusting of their chance data.

    I think I’d take a chance on this player if he’s got his weight figured out. I don’t like that he takes a ton of his penalties but he should be able to handle third pair minimum.

  30. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide:
    Reading through today, just wanted to address some comments all over the blog in regard to negative/positive from the blog author. In ALL cases, I try to remove bias and deliver a neutral blog post to start the day. I am not always successful, but that is the goal.

    Also, I don’t write all of the headlines for The Athletic, but I’m not terribly concerned about it. I write the article with my title, and then sometimes an editor will change it. I think, in every case, the change has been an improvement but your mileage may vary.

    Finally, although I try not to tip the scales for conversation here, I was thrilled when Peter Chiarelli arrived and am more pleased with his work now that I see his direction (he is trying not to get fired before kids like Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, McLeod and Maksimov can make a difference).

    I am also far less angry about McLellan than every person on this blog. If you listen to the radio show, it should come as no surprise. I don’t think he’s had the horses, and was disappointed in Chia that he wasn’t more aggressive at the 2017 deadline.

    There. That’s as honest as I can be. You will NOT see me frame articles to reflect my bias because that’s never ever what I’m trying to create on the blog or at The Athletic.

    Yeah, that just YOU WANT US TO THINK!

    I’m on to you.

  31. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, that just YOU WANT US TO THINK!

    I’m on to you.

    Lol.

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side: I could be wrong, but I thought Pitlick had a bit of an injury in 2016 and was slow played a bit until his season ended.

    But then again, in this article by Barns, November 2016 before Pitlicks season ender injury, it says:

    “He arrived in Edmonton at 208 pounds, up half a dozen, and scored better in pre-season strength testing, then skated off six pounds, potted three goals in his first five games and is now playing 12 to 15 minutes a night with Leon Draisaitl and Milan Lucic.”


    Everybody else sees it, too. He has gained the trust of coaches who bumped him up from the fourth line. But he’s only 15 games into his most serious bid for a full-time NHL job, and plenty of suspects got that much time before reverting to form.”
    https://edmontonsun.com/2016/11/11/oiler-winger-tyler-pitlick-finally–reaches-nhl-after-long-eventful-journey/wcm/a0a43562-8959-452c-b875-9129db49f3e6

    Todd also had nice things to say about Pitlick at the time

    “I like his tenacity, I like the speed, his ability to finish checks. He drives the puck to the post. He has a heavy, hard release. There’s a lot of real positives for him. I think he can be an every day NHL player but that’s going to be up to him.”

    Not sure why posters like godot think Todd didn’t value him enough.

    The fact that his TOI/gp dropped and they didn’t re-sign him remains.

  33. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: No, many team realized the value of data early.SJS was very early on the management side.

    Dellow wrote an article about it on his blog that’s now dark.

    It was brilliant and fascinating and it was published in or around 2009. It was an article on cost per wins in the NHL. Teams were ranked based on how many wins they get per season relative to cap spent. Of course, the Oilers were at the bottom of this ranking while the Sharks were consistently near the top.

    What I recall about the article is that San Jose used complex models–much like I would imagine (as my expertise in this area is thin) that someone in finance or perhaps economics would use to evaluate the market value of assets.

    They looked at valuations for players on their production. In fact, they had a database of some sort for every player in the league. They also used player aging curves to predict when players market value would decline (hence the Dany Heatley trade).

    10 years later, I’d be surprised if the Oilers caught up on this side alone and that’s only management.

  34. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot,

    I’m not sure why you started attacking me in the first place. I’m honestly pretty baffled

    Tearing down your arguments isn’t “attacking you”

  35. godot10 says:

    Wilde:

    I don’t care about any of that, you can tell because I replied only the Pouliot part where you said he “is out of the league so McLellan was right on him”

    McLellan doesn’t understand the cap. The Oilers will still be paying Pouliot for two more years after this one. The Oilers could have kept him for one more year (if only for the 4th line, or the pressbox, they had the cap space), and then bought him out, and they would be paying him for one less season. They also might have rehabilitated him somewhat and got someone to take him at half price and be not paying him at all. He did manage one more year in the NHL.

    One has to deal with ones problems in a cap world, because banishment comes with a heavy price.

  36. N64 says:

    godot10: McLellan doesn’t understand the cap.

    Or Katz understands cash flow. There have been a few non hockey moves with the cap.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: Dellow wrote an article about it on his blog that’s now dark.

    It was brilliant and fascinating and it was published in or around 2009. It was an article on cost per wins in the NHL.

    What I recall about the article is that San Jose used complex models–much like I would imagine (as my expertise in this area is thin) that someone in finance or perhaps economics would use to evaluate the market value of assets.

    They looked at valuations for players on their production. In fact, they had a database of some sort for every player in the league. They also used player aging curves to predict when players market value would decline (hence the Dany Heatley trade).

    10 years later, I’d be surprised if the Oilers caught up on this side alone and that’s only management.

    The public perception of the use of data and the actual use of data in the NHL is disparate.

    This is mostly due to the writers who write most often about hockey teams don’t know and don’t know enough to ask interesting questions.

    People who write for the Athletic are just starting to chip away at this.

    Murat Ates (Lowetiede Alum) is one of those who asks these questions and the great part is coaches and players are pretty forth coming to these questions.

    They just need to be asked the questions.

    Also,

    No team who has good results trumpet it.

    I’m lucky enough to know enough people who get paid to do this stuff to know how valuable it is.

  38. Ryan says:

    godot10: McLellan doesn’t understand the cap.The Oilers will still be paying Pouliot for two more years after this one.The Oilers could have kept him for one more year (if only for the 4th line, or the pressbox, they had the cap space), and then bought him out, and they would be paying him for one less season.They also might have rehabilitated him somewhat and got someone to take him at half price and be not paying him at all.He did manage one more year in the NHL.

    One has to deal with ones problems in a cap world, because banishment comes with a heavy price.

    I agree that it would have made more sense to keep Pouliot last year and then buy him out.

    It’s not like we did anything last season anyway.

    Also, playing McDavid with Draisatl was horribly foolish for managing the cap, but that’s another conversation.

  39. Wilde says:

    Lowetide:
    Finally, although I try not to tip the scales for conversation here, I was thrilled when Peter Chiarelli arrived and am more pleased with his work now that I see his direction (he is trying not to get fired before kids like Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, McLeod and Maksimov can make a difference).

    I am also far less angry about McLellan than every person on this blog. If you listen to the radio show, it should come as no surprise. I don’t think he’s had the horses, and was disappointed in Chia that he wasn’t more aggressive at the 2017 deadline.

    My worry, with McLellan, isn’t so much that he may or may not be getting enough out of the roster.

    I’m fine with a winning or losing team this year.

    Where my frustration – and more honestly, my worry – comes from is that he’s in charge of a couple of these critical future pieces at the foundational NHL age (Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Bouchard) and he’s teaching them the wrong things.

    According to Corey Sznajder’s tracking, Yamamoto carried the puck in three times in the first two games, and dumped it in fourteen times. That’s not the player I observed in Spokane.

    I don’t have the exit data, but anecdotally (subject to confirmation bias – I was looking for it) I’ve noticed Evan Bouchard dump-out in the face of superior passing options a few times.

  40. Bank Shot says:

    Wilde: you replied directly to me:

    It’s not really, here’s the case:

    – the NHL is not a perfect meritocracy or even remotely near being one

    – the player had tangible cap-hit reasons to be kept on the team

    – there were players with results tangibly worse than his that stayed

    – like, for example he scored more 5v5 goals than over half of our forwards on the lowest goal-scoring team the next year

    – four of our forwards scored more all-strengths goals than him last year

    – he had the lowest GA/60 on the penalty kill of all our regular PK forwards in 16-17

    – he had the lowest GA/60 on the penalty kill of all Buffalo’s regular PK forwards last year

    I don’t think this is a weak case at all and it took 5 minutes

    Pouliot’s most common linemates in Buffalo were O’Reilly, Okposo, Reinhart, Pominville, Eichel.

    He was fed top six linemates all season and did next to nothing with it.

    Also Pouliot wasn’t the best PKer on Buffalo. His GAA/60 at 4 on 5 wasn’t better than O’Reilly or Girgensons. And he doesn’t play 3 on 5 so that’s likely where the difference is. probably the same scenario in Edmonton.

    You could maybe makje a case he’s better than a guy like Jujhar Khaira, but maybe Khaira will grow as a player. Pouliot never really did.

  41. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Saying I don’t understand what moving up the lineup is while being dead wrong is not tearing down any arguments.

    You should probably just own your stupid comments.

    Maybe apologize for being thick headed and move on.

  42. Lowetide says:

    Wilde: My worry, with McLellan, isn’t so much that he may or may not be getting enough out of the roster.

    I’m fine with a winning or losing team this year.

    Where my frustration – and more honestly, my worry – comes from is that he’s in charge of a couple of these critical future pieces at the foundational NHL age (Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Bouchard) and he’s teaching them the wrong things.

    According to Corey Sznajder’s tracking, Yamamoto carried the puck in three times in the first two games, and dumped it in fourteen times. That’s not the player I observed in Spokane.

    I don’t have the exit data, but anecdotally (subject to confirmation bias – I was looking for it) I’ve noticed Evan Bouchard dump-out in the face of superior passing options a few times.

    This is a great point. McLellan was iirc a ‘place and chase’ coach in San Jose as well, although (as here) the ridiculous have no such shackles. I remember this quote from Fear the Fin years ago about him:

    There’s no mistaking the Sharks’ identity now, six years into his coaching career. They’ve been a top-10 puck possession team (by Fenwick Close%) every year except for 09-10, although they responded the very next season by taking the “Corsi Cup” as the best possession team in the league in 10-11. The Sharks rank among the league’s best again this year, only behind the Kings and Blackhawks. It’s been McLellan’s blend of puck possession, a shoot-first attitude, and smothering defensive style that has led the Sharks to become one of the most consistent organizations in the NHL.

    I think, maybe I’m wrong, Mr. McLellan still views his SJS team as the goal. Dogged pursuit, place and chase for the 6’s and 7’s and 9’s, the right-side breakout of your own zone. Chia hasn’t given him that team of course, and adjustment is often slow for veteran coaches, especially when they’ve had success.

  43. Side says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Trying to find a thread from awhile ago where godot mentioned Todd didn’t value Hall which lead to Hall being traded. He alludes to it somewhat in this thread though…

    “McLellan discarded many players who had the potential to play fast. Hall, ”

    One only “discards” something when they don’t value it.

    Regarding Pitlick, he was still given 12 – 15 mins and played up with Lucic and Drai. It did decrease at the end but would have to rewatch and see if there was a specific reason why.

    Regardless, Todd still had nothing but good things to say about Pitlick throughout the year.

    Again, still not sure how godot sees McLellan as the driving force to Pitlick not getting signed, which he has said multiple times before.

    I truly do not know why PC didn’t resign him (maybe it was his crazy injury history, idk). Just have no clue why McLellan gets the blame for it.

  44. Bos8 says:

    Yep, McLellan fighting the present war with successful last war tactics.

  45. HT Joe says:

    Ryan: Also, playing McDavid with Draisatl was horribly foolish for managing the cap, but that’s another conversation.

    I don’t think it’s unfair to suggest that Drai got paid $8.5M to play as a Centre, but many of his points in 2016-2017 came from time playing with McDavid as 1RW (he had a spectacular playoff performance as a centre, but he has not seemed that magical since). If Draisatl had received a bridge contract for less money (RFA-only years), and then been forced to drive the 2nd line for 2 years, who thinks he would get paid significantly more than $8.5M/yr on his next contract extension?

    With that in mind, is it reasonable for Chia to re-sign wingers who play with McDavid only bridge contracts after the ELC, in an effort to defer cap hits as long as possible?

  46. Bank Shot says:

    Bos8:
    Yep, McLellan fighting the present war with successful last war tactics.

    I’m not sure he’s all that different than other coaches.

    I watched the first period of the Carolina vs Tampa game last night before the Oilers started and was watching for zone entries. About 90% were dump ins.

    Are other teams really playing chess while the Oilers are playing checkers?

  47. Side says:

    godot10,

    You keep making it seem as if the Oilers could pick only Kassian or Pitlick.

    They could have had both, no problems.

    The logical conclusion is Todd liked them both, but the GM who is responsible for player acquisition, decided not to pursue Pitlick.

  48. leadfarmer says:

    The Blues are making darn sure TMac isn’t the first coach fired this year

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: McLellan doesn’t understand the cap.The Oilers will still be paying Pouliot for two more years after this one.The Oilers could have kept him for one more year (if only for the 4th line, or the pressbox, they had the cap space), and then bought him out, and they would be paying him for one less season.They also might have rehabilitated him somewhat and got someone to take him at half price and be not paying him at all.He did manage one more year in the NHL.

    One has to deal with ones problems in a cap world, because banishment comes with a heavy price.

    Serious question, why do you keep referring to McLellan in reference to actions/inaction that are the job of management, not the coach?

    The coach doesn’t need to understand the cap – he gets provided with a 23 man roster that is cap compliant and deploys that roster in a manner he feels best to win games (no, not playing players with McDavid in their contract years is not something coaches should be contemplating).

    The coach doesn’t trade players or get rid of player or buy out players.

  50. Bos8 says:

    Bank Shot: I’m not sure he’s all that different than other coaches.

    I watched the first period of the Carolina vs Tampa game last night before the Oilers started and was watching for zone entries. About 90% were dump ins.

    Are other teams really playing chess while the Oilers are playing checkers?

    I’m from the school that says “ Check your preconceptions” as in don’t mess with success. McL got a wake up call last year and I fully expected him to review his own performance. When the system is the same for Puljujarvi and Yamamoto I turn critical. This dump it out, chip it in makes for bad, predictable hockey. Should be the last option not the first.

    I really hate tiered hockey. He’s McD and you’re not. The McD record is a TMac failure.

  51. Wilde says:

    Bank Shot: Pouliot’s most common linemates in Buffalo were O’Reilly, Okposo, Reinhart, Pominville, Eichel.
    He was fed top six linemates all season and did next to nothing with it.

    Sounds familiar.

    Bank Shot: Also Pouliot wasn’t the best PKer on Buffalo. His GAA/60 at 4 on 5 wasn’t better than O’Reilly or Girgensons.

    Pure 4v5 does drop him down, but remember the arg is that he’s not below replacement level, and that there was players in 17-18 that were worse than him. It’s about if he’s out of the NHL on pure on-ice merit.

    Bank Shot: And he doesn’t play 3 on 5 so that’s likely where the difference is. probably the same scenario in Edmonton.

    No, it isn’t. In pure 4v5 time from the Oilers’ 2016-17 season, every regular PK forward besides him was between 6.77 GA/60 and 7.67 GA/60, his rate was 5.41.

    Bank Shot:
    You could maybe makje a case he’s better than a guy like Jujhar Khaira, but maybe Khaira will grow as a player. Pouliot never really did.

    ??

    You’re getting sidetracked here. The question is whether or not he belonged in the NHL.

  52. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The coach in a healthy team (should I stop now?)

    would be asked for input. Apparently and I think WG was our source, there were differing opinions on trading Hall. Maybe McL was on the right side of it.

    I have definite opinions on that scenario, but what matters is what happened after. PC has improved the roster IMO. I hope he keeps moving on and all uppers get more open minded with how to maximize what is available.

    I think it will become easier when less rookies with high potential are joining the team and the cap implications are more clear for PC.

    The coaches are in a tough spot trying to win with ‘perhaps’ instructions (and their own self interest in not pumping RFAs so they can have a better roster in the future) and balancing money with success.

    However it remains that low cost rosters can win with a solid coaching plan and execution from players.

    I choose to remain hopeful, despite what what my brain says and read that the Russians say. IT is a choice to remain hopeful, a daring choice as an Oilers fan. Be brave.

  53. N64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, that just YOU WANT US TO THINK!

    I’m on to you.

    ~ Pure LT. Never happy until his readers are unhappy ~

  54. barmstrong says:

    Lowetide:

    Finally, although I try not to tip the scales for conversation here, I was thrilled when Peter Chiarelli arrived and am more pleased with his work now that I see his direction (he is trying not to get fired before kids like Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, McLeod and Maksimov can make a difference).

    LT,
    Why do you hate Bouchard?

  55. Bank Shot says:

    Wilde: Sounds familiar.

    You’re getting sidetracked here. The question is whether or not he belonged in the NHL.

    After two consecutive sub 20 point seasons playing almost exclusively with top six players, I submit that Pouliot is probably in tryout territory.

    Maybe he could still be a 4th liner somewhere.

  56. Abbeef says:

    Bank Shot: In Pitlick’s last season here….

    Pitlick got zero games with 10+ minutes of ice in his first ten games.

    He got 12 of those games in his next 21.

    McLellan rewarded his good play.

    If you are going to act like an ass. At least be right.🙂

    Gold!

  57. Bank Shot says:

    Ovechkin just potted two PP goals on very routine looking opportunities.

    Oilers should put him across from McDavid. 😛

  58. Serenity says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Of course it is you piece of trash.

  59. Wilde says:

    Bank Shot: playing almost exclusively with top six players

    it never ends.

    382 minutes away from Eichel and ROR

    100 minutes with jack

    333 minutes with ROR

    408 minutes away from McDavid and RNH

    39 minutes with 97

    330 minutes with RNH

    how is that even close to “almost exclusively”

  60. Wilde says:

    Serenity:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Of course it is you piece of trash.

    inaccurate username

  61. silasbengtsson says:

    I see a lot of trashing of Strome for being invisible lately but has it been considered that maybe his value is in just chugging along as a low-event, 50% GF guy? I’m out and about so I don’t have the numbers but wasn’t he pretty close to even with respect to GF% last year (on a pretty bad team)?

    Unfortunate that he’s all we got for Eberle but- assuming I’m recalling the numbers correctly- I think there’s value in a low-event 3rd C that mainly doesn’t get outscored behind McDavid and future-Draisaitl. Ideal? No. Worth throwing to the curb for nothing? Also no.

  62. Lowetide says:

    barmstrong: LT,
    Why do you hate Bouchard?

    He said he liked Smid. I had no choice.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Niagara was down 4-0 with less than 10 to go in the third – Maksimov tallied a goal and a primary assist in the last few minutes but they fell shot by a goal.

  64. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: He said he liked Smid. I had no choice.

    He meant Mr. Smee. He’s a Peter Pan fan.

  65. Bank Shot says:

    Wilde: it never ends.

    382 minutes away from Eichel and ROR

    100 minutes with jack

    333 minutes with ROR

    408 minutes away from McDavid and RNH

    39 minutes with 97

    330 minutes with RNH

    how is that even close to “almost exclusively”

    Well in 16/17 Pouliot played 793 minutes at ES. 65% of that time was with at least one of Draisaitl, Eberle, Mcdavid, or RNH. This isn’t even including Lucic or Desharnais.

    So we are easily 70% plus of his ice time. That’s a large amount. Guys can easily spend 10-15% of their icetime with different guys just because of line changes and line blending.

    You look at guys like Gaudreau and Monahan who are basically glued together, and they will spend 300 minutes apart over a season.

    Its the same thing in Buffalo. Pouliot played 841 minutes ES.

    300 of these minutes weren’t with one of Okposo, Eichel, Reinhart, or O’Reilly on the ice.

    You can nitpick the verbiage, but this is the story of a guy that was getting great line mates, and producing at an awful rate.

  66. Munny says:

    Right now, Darnell Nurse is the Oilers best defenseman.

  67. SwedishPoster says:

    Truly entertaining game last night. I do like McLellan’s plan B better than his more cautious approach at the start of the game and the team clearly responds. How about starting with plan B next time?

    A lot of positives from the second half of the game but I’ve rarely seen a player where some AHL time would be beneficial as is the case with Yamamoto. The Oilers needs to decide if they want to turn him into a skill player or righty Caggiula(who has started the season well btw, hope his injury isn’t too bad).
    At this point Yama works hard, tries really hard but struggles to make plays, he loses battles and hasn’t found a way to seperate from NHL defense neither with speed nor skill. He “plays the right way” which is earning trust with coaches but at this point he’s not efficient in the offensive end.

  68. JimmyV1965 says:

    Doug McLachlan: Not sure that Petrovic plays higher than third pair for us but if it is a third pair with calm feet, I’m game.

    Are you comfortable with:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Petrovic
    Russell-Benning/Bouchard

    ?

    Maybe Petrovic isn’t the answer at 2RD, but I think adding the depth is a good thing. It’s bettet than what we hsve. Getting a legit 2RD might just be too expensive.

  69. Bling says:

    Munny:
    Right now, Darnell Nurse is the Oilers best defenseman.

    Adam Larsson for me.

    He’s a mean man.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rask in goal for the Bruins tonight which i presume means we face Halak tomorrow.

    Given the way they’ve played this year, this is NOT a good thing:

    41 Jaroslav Halak 3 153 3 1.18 2 0 0 0 1 73 0.961
    40 Tuukka Rask 3 147 10 4.07 2 1 0 0 0 74 0.881

  71. hags9k says:

    Halak should be ready to regress to the meat then!

  72. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: NJD has 3 lines without Hall and they’re doing well.

    I projected NJD to finish out of the playoffs because their 5v5 play was meh last year and they killed 5v4 and that doesn’t always last.

    Now they are killing 5v5 (in a small sample) and I have no idea why.

    Then I read this piece and see a coach of who is coaching his ass off for all 4 lines and 3 pairs.

    They have the 2nd cheapest roster in the league.

    If they continue killing it without many “brand name” players, then this will be very interesting to watch.

    Same with VAN.

    Their coach has a terrible roster (comparatively) competitive so far (and Nielson has grabbed the starter spot). Why?

    I love trying to figure this shit out.

    I KNOW!!! I obviously know crap about the numbers, but the performance of teams like the Devils is absolutely fascinating. Intuitively, I think it comes down to the coaching. But what is it about the coaching? There’s only so many systems you can use in hockey so why is this team with a meh roster the best team I’ve seen so far this year? And is it really the coaching? Is it something else? I’m not smart enough to figure this stuff out, but I would love to read some explanations.

  73. Richard S.S. says:

    In some circles, getting in the News only when you are born, when you are married and when you die is considered a great success story.

  74. Wilde says:

    Bank Shot: This isn’t even including Lucic or Desharnais.

    Why would you?

    Would his time with Desharnais count towards time ‘exclusively in the top-six’?

    Bank Shot: You look at guys like Gaudreau and Monahan who are basically glued together, and they will spend 300 minutes apart over a season.

    Sean Monahan spent 85 minutes away from Gaudreau last year

    (Gaudreau spent more b/c Monahan missed 8 games)

    Bank Shot: You can nitpick the verbiage

    let’s not pretend that’s what’s happened here

    Bank Shot: but this is the story of a guy that was getting great line mates, and producing at an awful rate.

    again, this is not unique to Pouliot

    You’re getting sidetracked again. This is not about if Pouliot is a good NHLer. It’s about whether or not he was the worst on the team (below replacement on the Oilers) to the point that you need to buy him out regardless of cap implication (because the space was not used and the penalty was lesser if you burnt another year)

    Anyways, you’re leapfrogging like crazy here and it’s a little much. Have yourself a splendid night, my friend

  75. Richard S.S. says:

    Hockey Players get noticed when they do something good or they do something not good or worse. Just because a Player isn’t noticed, doesn’t mean he’s not doing his job.

  76. Fraktal says:

    Ribs,

    They broke ties with Dark Horse Analytics several years ago.

    Source: My sister-in-law works there.

  77. Bank Shot says:

    Wilde:

    You’re getting sidetracked again. This is not about if Pouliot is a good NHLer. It’s about whether or not he was the worst on the team (below replacement on the Oilers) to the point that you need to buy him out regardless of cap implication (because the space was not used and the penalty was lesser if you burnt another year)

    I don’t see who he plays above on the Oilers. And the Oilers wanted the flexibility on that $4 million of suck. The move made sense.

    It would have been even tighter this year with Pouliot contributing nothing.

    I mean you obviously got married to your opinion of Pouliot some time ago when he was actually good, so I can see why you would be clinging to that.

    Good night. 🙂

  78. N64 says:

    Ribs: I’d suggest McDavid dropped that pass subconsciously

    Pretty sure that mcdavid’s neurons are powered by quantum retrocausality.

  79. Glovjuice says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Our host yesterday says: “This game has the feel of a trade or something more final”

    – In the Athletic: his headline is “Panic Storm in horizon”

    – I can’t speak for LT of course, but what you write about gives some insight.I get the narrative, and I read the articles.Perhaps he is not clamouring for it, but he certainly doesn’t write otherwise.We will see.

    – What if they get through this month above .500?

    – Anyway my post was taken the wrong way, and again the focus on one the weed, not the forest: I am out untill end of October

    More whining

  80. Richard Roma says:

    Glovjuice: More whining

    If I ran a hockey blog… and I had a poster who continually falsely attributed this sort of stuff to me, I’d be really annoyed.

    Lowetide has enviable tolerance and patience.

  81. Richard Roma says:

    Lowetide: This is a great point. McLellan was iirc a ‘place and chase’ coach in San Jose as well, although (as here) the ridiculous have no such shackles. I remember this quote from Fear the Fin years ago about him:

    There’s no mistaking the Sharks’ identity now, six years into his coaching career. They’ve been a top-10 puck possession team (by Fenwick Close%) every year except for 09-10, although they responded the very next season by taking the “Corsi Cup” as the best possession team in the league in 10-11. The Sharks rank among the league’s best again this year, only behind the Kings and Blackhawks. It’s been McLellan’s blend of puck possession, a shoot-first attitude, and smothering defensive style that has led the Sharks to become one of the most consistent organizations in the NHL.

    I think, maybe I’m wrong, Mr. McLellan still views his SJS team as the goal. Dogged pursuit, place and chase for the 6’s and 7’s and 9’s, the right-side breakout of your own zone. Chia hasn’t given him that team of course, and adjustment is often slow for veteran coaches, especially when they’ve had success.

    No one else noticed this?

    When you say that you remembered the quote…

    Did you mean that you remembered it and looked it up or that you remembered it verbatim?

  82. Bank Shot says:

    Calgary is pumping the Bruins and looking good doing it. Going to get the angry Bruins tomorrow night.

    🙁

  83. Richard Roma says:

    N64: Pretty sure that mcdavid’s neurons are powered by quantum retrocausality.

    I don’t think that it was a fluke. McDavid is as humble as anyone can imagine. After he supposedly flubbed the puck, he didn’t stop or try to retrieve it. He just looked at the net watching Rattie who was now behind him roof it.

    He’s learned to use “we” quite effectively in interviews referring to the team. He’s actually so proficient at you can tell he’s actually able to think through the lense of the team.

  84. GMB3 says:

    Bank Shot: I don’t see who he plays above on the Oilers. And the Oilers wanted the flexibility on that $4 million of suck. The move made sense.

    It would have been even tighter this year with Pouliot contributing nothing.

    I mean you obviously got married to your opinion of Pouliot some time ago when he was actually good, so I can see why you would be clinging to that.

    Good night.

    It made more sense to buy him out this summer than when we did. 🤔

  85. GMB3 says:

    silasbengtsson:
    I see a lot of trashing of Strome for being invisible lately but has it been considered that maybe his value is in just chugging along as a low-event, 50% GF guy? I’m out and about so I don’t have the numbers but wasn’t he pretty close to even with respect to GF% last year (on a pretty bad team)?

    Unfortunate that he’s all we got for Eberle but- assuming I’m recalling the numbers correctly- I think there’s value in a low-event 3rd C that mainly doesn’t get outscored behind McDavid and future-Draisaitl. Ideal? No. Worth throwing to the curb for nothing? Also no.

    This is a valid point and why I don’t hate him in the 3C role

  86. Lowetide says:

    Richard Roma: No one else noticed this?

    When you say that you remembered the quote…

    Did you mean that you remembered it and looked it up or that you remembered it verbatim?

    Oh no, I didn’t remember it verbatim. But the thrust of it has always stayed with me.

  87. Richard Roma says:

    Lowetide: Oh no, I didn’t remember it verbatim. But the thrust of it has always stayed with me.

    Okay, I thought you might be like Mike Ross from suits or something.

  88. Glovjuice says:

    Bank Shot:
    Wilde:
    I’m not sure why you started attacking me in the first place. I’m honestly pretty baffled.

    I made a replay to godot on his comment about McLellan discarding guys like Pouliot, Hall, Schultz, Pitlick.

    He didn’t discard any of them and had time for all of them except Pouliot.Taylor Hall has the most icetime on the team for forwards under Mclellan. Mclellan moved Pitlick up the lineup when he performed. He had no problems with these players besides one.

    And it’s pretty hard to make a case given how Pouliot’s career has unfolded that Mclellan was wrong about Pouliot.

    Maybe you really liked Pouliot and are upset about that, but it would be pretty tough to make a solid case that Pouliot should still be an Oiler. He’s not even in the NHL.

    ….aaaannnnnnddddd… more whining

  89. Ribs says:

    Fraktal:
    Ribs,

    They broke ties with Dark Horse Analytics several years ago.

    Source: My sister-in-law works there.

    Ah, I see. Thanks!

    I suppose they don’t call on Bruce and his hive mind every once in a while either these days?

    They must have someone who looks at this stuff. Does Sportlogiq have advisors that they assign to each team or something?

    Dreading to hear “Dellow” and “sour taste in their mouths” in the same sentence.

  90. Glovjuice says:

    Jethro Tull: Oh boy, shots fired.

    BTW, WWYD?

    How much rope does Benning get?One thing the Oilers have been poor at is assessing when to cut bait on players.Lucic has had a career of good results.But you admit that he’s better playing down the line these days.

    Benning is useful, but I wouldn’t hesitate to trade him should we be able to upgrade for him plus a pick.

    I hope he gets back to his rookie season, and grows from there, but it’s like he’s spinning wheels in his development a bit.And as I’ve said before, patience is a luxury we could afford IF Sekera was healthy and we were 4-0.

    The league has gotten faster since his rookie season – this player is painfully slow turning back to his own corners. He is no longer an NHL player. I’m stunned others don’t clearly see this.

  91. Ribs says:

    N64: quantum retrocausality

    I think that’s a queue for a three part reply from Vor!

  92. HT Joe says:

    Glovjuice: ….aaaannnnnnddddd… more whining

    Isn’t sporadically popping up, only to point out the whining of others, just another form of whining?

    *EDIT* Oh no… the irony of my comment…

  93. barmstrong says:

    Glovjuice: The league has gotten faster since his rookie season – this player is painfully slow turning back to his own corners. He is no longer an NHL player. I’m stunned others don’t clearly see this.

    +1

  94. GMB3 says:

    Glovjuice: ….aaaannnnnnddddd… more whining

    Why are you here?

  95. N64 says:

    Ribs: I think that’s a queue for a three part reply from Vor!

    ~ Other train muscle memory. Mcdavid spends his summers training muscle precognition. ~

  96. Dominoiler says:

    Lowetide, i finally got the chance to listen to today’s lowedown, loved the ‘closet space’ joke w McCurdy, hilarious.. thanks for such an entertaining show, happy you and your guests​ get to have a great time..

  97. Lowetide says:

    Dominoiler:
    Lowetide, i finally got the chance to listen to today’s lowedown, loved the ‘closet space’ joke w McCurdy, hilarious.. thanks for such an entertaining show, happy you and your guests​ get to have a great time..

    That’s very kind. Bruce makes radio easy, because he’s a friend.

  98. Scungilli Slushy says:

    N64: ~ Other train muscle memory. Mcdavid spends his summers training muscle precognition. ~

    This is so true. I mentioned before bringing up videos for my young son in hockey and being surprised at how much Connor’s dry land training is obvious on the ice – the rapid cross overs and the rapid stick handling in perfect unison, the incredible balance and ability to react instinctively at high speed and do it while threading the puck through a needle.

    I believe Connor was born with the genetics to do what he has based on watching him roller blade at 2 and and the attitude based on how he trains. Still the difference between him and humans is very much to do with the work he puts in, and that he is smart enough to do recognize what actually matters.

  99. Glovjuice says:

    HT Joe: Isn’t sporadically popping up, only to point out the whining of others, just another form of whining?

    I wrote a very articulate post above regarding Benning.

  100. HT Joe says:

    Glovjuice: I wrote a very articulate post above regarding Benning.

    I did see that, and I enjoyed that post. More of that please!!

  101. Jethro Tull says:

    Glovjuice: The league has gotten faster since his rookie season – this player is painfully slow turning back to his own corners. He is no longer an NHL player. I’m stunned others don’t clearly see this.

    Which player? I mentioned three. Probably not Benning. Sekera? Injured since he lost a chariot race at the circus maximus.

    Lucic? Yep, he slow. And it is the curse of every generation to believe they’re the cutting edge.

    Your syntax is very Cassandra like.

  102. Lowetide says:

    I think Benning is a good defenseman but he hasn’t looked good this year. Might be an injury or maybe he’s thinking too much. When we talk about players and falloff in performance, it’s often injury or age, or change in role. That’s my opinion.

  103. GMB3 says:

    Jethro Tull: Which player? I mentioned three. Probably not Benning.Sekera? Injured since he lost a chariot race at the circus maximus.

    Lucic? Yep, he slow.And it is the curse of every generation to believe they’re the cutting edge.

    Your syntax is very Cassandra like.

    Cassandra would be ripping Garrison

  104. Glovjuice says:

    Jethro Tull: Which player? I mentioned three. Probably not Benning.Sekera? Injured since he lost a chariot race at the circus maximus.

    Lucic? Yep, he slow.And it is the curse of every generation to believe they’re the cutting edge.

    Your syntax is very Cassandra like.

    Lucic almost never “turns back to his own corners” as he is a winger. Why would I post about Sekera – hasn’t played for, what, two years now? Man.

  105. Glovjuice says:

    Lowetide:
    I think Benning is a good defenseman but he hasn’t looked good this year. Might be an injury or maybe he’s thinking too much. When we talk about players and falloff in performance, it’s often injury or age, or change in role. That’s my opinion.

    The league has gotten faster since his rookie season – a variable you have not considered.

  106. Lowetide says:

    Glovjuice: The league has gotten faster since his rookie season – a variable you have not considered.

    According to Puck IQ, Benning played 25 percent of his 5-on-5 time against elites, and handled those minutes well in 2017-18. That’s a very recent and substantial sample size. I understand speed is a bigger factor every year, but Benning was able to handle it a year ago. Suspect he’s got something going on, that’s my guess.

    https://lowetide.ca/2018/07/25/kicks/

  107. Munny says:

    SwedishPoster,

    These same thoughts have been running through my head… but since my particular neck isn’t neatly positioned on a block, I want to give the team 10 games and see where they’re at. Hopefully that means 5 for Bouchard,

    Not sure if TMac can afford any level of patience.

  108. Ribs says:

    Lowetide:
    I think Benning is a good defenseman but he hasn’t looked good this year. Might be an injury or maybe he’s thinking too much. When we talk about players and falloff in performance, it’s often injury or age, or change in role. That’s my opinion.

    Concussions are not something to mess around with. He’s also being asked to do more than I think he’s capable of and it’s a bad look. I still say if this guy was 4 inches taller and the equivalence heavier he’d really be something to behold. Tons of heart and very smart. I hope he finds his niche here or elsewhere. He’s the kind of player you find time for.

  109. Abbeef says:

    Lowetide: According to Puck IQ, Benning played 25 percent of his 5-on-5 time against elites, and handled those minutes well in 2017-18. That’s a very recent and substantial sample size. I understand speed is a bigger factor every year, but Benning was able to handle it a year ago. Suspect he’s got something going on, that’s my guess.

    https://lowetide.ca/2018/07/25/kicks/

    If my memory is serving me right Benning was good the last half of the season and awful the first half last year. Hopefully it won’t take him so long this year to get going.

  110. Ribs says:

    Freidman has an interesting point here…

    Since the NHL began keeping count of ice time, only one forward has ever averaged 19 even-strength minutes in a season. That was Pavel Bure, 19:12 for Florida in 2000–01. McDavid’s going to challenge that. https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-mike-matheson-elias-pettersson-connor-mcdavid/

    Seems insane. Made up. Just another indication of how good this guy is.

  111. Jaxon says:

    There is one fact we do not know about Pitlick. We don’t know if the Oilers made him an offer or not. We don’t know if Pitlick was even open to an offer. He may have decided he wanted a fresh start somewhere and wanted to put all the injury woes behind him. He may have wanted more opportunity to play on another roster. We really don’t know if or how hard the Oilers tried to sign him or what they might have offered.

  112. Ribs says:

    Jaxon,

    I did find this…

    https://blackoutdallas.com/2018/01/05/dallas-stars-tough-winger-tyler-pitlick/

    Which kind of gives you an idea of how things went down (Oilers didn’t try that hard).

    It’s hard to fault the Oilers for letting the guy go with the injury history he had with the team. It really is. I was hoping they would retain him, myself, but completely understand them letting him go.

  113. --hudson-- says:

    Ribs: Ah, I see. Thanks!

    I suppose they don’t call on Bruce and his hive mind every once in a while either these days?

    They must have someone who looks at this stuff. Does Sportlogiq have advisors that they assign to each team or something?

    Dreading to hear “Dellow” and “sour taste in their mouths” in the same sentence.

    Only info I could find with a quick google was from Matty :
    Sean Draper, the Oilers’ long-time director of research, analysis and software development, has left the organization
    https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/oilers-sign-first-round-pick-evan-bouchard-to-entry-level-contract

    Couldn’t find any info on a replacement. I think the Oilers tried to get into the new wave of analytics but struck out with Marco Roy, Mark Fayne, Boyd Gordon signings so moved on. They’ve been an early adopter of Sportslogiq so I don’t think they’re averse to analytics, they just think they have something better. They could be right. It would be nice to hear more about Sportlogiq, if computer vision can drive a car, don’t see why it can’t break down a hockey game.

  114. Ribs says:

    –hudson–,

    Thanks for taking the look! Who knew there was a Director of Research, Analysis and Software Development, anyway?

    Man, striking out is harsh for the players mentioned.

    I second that notion that we should learn more about Sportlogiq and how they operate. They seem to be leading the field and we still don’t know much about how they attain their data or who gets what.

  115. Professor Q says:

    Ryan: Dellow wrote an article about it on his blog that’s now dark.

    It was brilliant and fascinating and it was published in or around 2009. It was an article on cost per wins in the NHL. Teams were ranked based on how many wins they get per season relative to cap spent. Of course, the Oilers were at the bottom of this ranking while the Sharks were consistently near the top.

    What I recall about the article is that San Jose used complex models–much like I would imagine (as my expertise in this area is thin) that someone in finance or perhaps economics would use to evaluate the market value of assets.

    They looked at valuations for players on their production. In fact, they had a database of some sort for every player in the league. They also used player aging curves to predict when players market value would decline (hence the Dany Heatley trade).

    10 years later, I’d be surprised if the Oilers caught up on this side alone and that’s only management.

    Here’s what I found:

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/09/09/nhl-analytic-teams-state-of-the-union/

    Looks like the Canucks and Stars were very early in the analytics in management side (mid-2000s), even earlier than San Jose (though San Jose has the trump card of having analytics and innovation inbedded from its ownership down, their own analytics software developed over the years, partnerships with both player and business analytics companies, and DeBoer’s history of using analytics with the top playoff New Jersey teams). Tampa Bay in mid-2000s as well, and 2009 specifically. A lot more than I thought, a lot earlier, and relative team success definitely makes sense.

    Chicago and Winnipeg were likely early too but more private. Toronto, Detroit, Los Angeles, Boston, and Chicago were using it throughout coaching and management also.

    I think that when I was thinking about Edmonton, my mind was on what I’ve been learning from here and other Edmonton-based blogs since 2005-2006 and all the talk about Tyler Dellow and Darkhorse Analytics, related to the team or not (those hirings were obviously big news to us here). My mistake for thinking the Oilers were earlier than that, though.

    After looking through all those teams, both early and sustained successful teams as well as teams looking to be the new top stars, it really is sad that Edmonton has seemed to have abandoned more substantial usage (inferred via actions with Dellow etc. and certain verbal). Chiarelli was a big supporter when he was with the Bruins but who knows how it is in Edmonton? If they had pressed the foot down and kept it up and used it more with variation and moderation like those successful teams?

  116. London Jon says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Coach says Caggulia is “banged up” and wasn’t able to skate today – they’ll wait and see how he feels tomorrow.

    I’ve been very negative about the Drake but really liked his game so far.

    Good with the puck and solidly hitting everything that moves.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Anxious to see what the third pairing will be tonight. I know coach said Benning -‘d Bouchard is something they could look at but i can’t see it being a good idea at this point.

    I also can’t see Garrison in the lineup tonight.

    Can he move Russell off that 2nd pairing?

    Too late to call up Gravel unless a non-waiver player is assigned (Yamamoto or Bouchard)

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon:
    There is one fact we do not know about Pitlick. We don’t know if the Oilers made him an offer or not. We don’t know if Pitlick was even open to an offer. He may have decided he wanted a fresh start somewhere and wanted to put all the injury woes behind him. He may have wanted more opportunity to play on another roster. We really don’t know if or how hard the Oilers tried to sign him or what they might have offered.

    Pitlick is on record as saying that he was just hoping to get offered a one-way contract from some team that off season and was shocked when Dallas not only offered him a one-way contract but three years and he had to jump at it.

    Its interesting that Godot, who often brings up not re-signing Pitlick, is also adamant that non core pieces should not get multi year deals.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    London Jon: I’ve been very negative about the Drake but really liked his game so far.

    Good with the puck and solidly hitting everything that moves.

    I’m in the same boat here.

    Generally not a huge fan of Caggulia and, although I don’t think he played great in his first game (despite his tenacity), I think he’s been quite good in the last two (except McLellan needs to stop using him on the PK).

    I’m not a huge fan of his in the top 6 so don’t really like him on the 2nd line, however, I am also loathe to have Reider up on the 2nd line as he’s more effective in the bottom 6 so I’d rather Drake play and be 2LW to keep Reider down the lineup where he can be most effective.

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Serenity:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Of course it is you piece of trash.

    SERENITY NOW!!!!!

  121. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Pitlick is on record as saying that he was just hoping to get offered a one-way contract from some team that off season and was shocked when Dallas not only offered him a one-way contract but three years and he had to jump at it.

    Its interesting that Godot, who often brings up not re-signing Pitlick, is also adamant that non core pieces should not get multi year deals.

    Pitlick’s contract value can be entirely buried in the the minors and has no cap impact there.

    The unstated implicit premise in non core players not getting more than two years doesn’t apply to contracts that can be buried with no cap impact.

    The Oilers probably wouldn’t have had to offer three years. Pitlick would likely have signed an Oiler offer of an NHL contract when they had exclusive negotiating rights before July 1,

  122. Jethro Tull says:

    Glovjuice: Lucic almost never “turns back to his own corners” as he is a winger.Why would I post about Sekera – hasn’t played for, what, two years now? Man.

    Because Benning only started to play significant minutes 2 years ago. The other two have had longer careers.

    Perhaps if you didn’t write as if you’d google translated your piece into five languages before coming back to English, you’d be easier to understand, Caramel.

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ribs:
    –hudson–,

    Thanks for taking the look! Who knew there was a Director of Research, Analysis and Software Development, anyway?

    Man, striking out is harsh for the players mentioned.

    I second that notion that we should learn more about Sportlogiq and how they operate. They seem to be leading the field and we still don’t know much about how they attain their data or who gets what.

    SportslogIQ has a video scraper that records puck and player movement from video of games.

    Whereas there are about 400 data points per game when you look at shot metric, SportslogIQ gathers about 4000 data points per game.

    That’s why there was a hiring spree for Database Managers a couple years ago among NHL team.

    That’s a boatload of data and managing it is a big job.

    Any team that pays for the data can get it.

    Sportsnet (and I think TSN, but not positive) have also purchased the data, although I think their deals are a little different than team’s deals.

    The media guys are not allowed to pull back the curtain and share reams of data, but are allowed to share some results.

    Andrew Berkshire who writes for SN gets access to their data. Here is an example: https://twitter.com/AndrewBerkshire/status/1052606346888179712

    Many teams get the data.

    If you were to rank each team from 1-10 in terms of organizing the data and trying to find something useful in it there are teams all across that scale.

    EDM is certainly in the lowest quadrant.

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ribs:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Do they still use Darkhorse?

    No.

    Pete cut that tie pretty quickly

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Saying I don’t understand what moving up the lineup is while being dead wrong is not tearing down any arguments.

    You should probably just own your stupid comments.

    Maybe apologize for being thick headed and move on.

    I’m sorry I’m a dink.

    I’m not entirely wrong on this though.

    Wilde’s post on TOI showed that.

    DAL put him on the tough checking line to start and he’s been there for the most part.

    His TOI/gp overall, TOI in the game logs, and most common partners show he played a significant role for DAL since he got there and that role was above where he played in EDM (moslty, including the end)

    I don’t subscribe to Godot’s theory on this though, I just like to argue.

  126. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Serenity:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Of course it is you piece of trash.

    Of course what is?

  127. godot10 says:

    Yamamoto deserves a shot away from the Lucic blackhole of death, before being sent down. The main problem with achieving that is the trial would probably be with the sinkhole of suckiness, Drake Caggiula.

    Khaira, Strome, and Yamamoto please.

    The three right wings (Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, and Rattie) might actually succeed if they can be kept away from Lucic and Caggiula.

  128. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Trying to find a thread from awhile ago where godot mentioned Todd didn’t value Hall which lead to Hall being traded. He alludes to it somewhat in this thread though…

    “McLellan discarded many players who had the potential to play fast. Hall, ”

    One only “discards” something when they don’t value it.

    Regarding Pitlick, he was still given 12 – 15 mins and played up with Lucic and Drai. It did decrease at the end but would have to rewatch and see if there was a specific reason why.

    Regardless, Todd still had nothing but good things to say about Pitlick throughout the year.

    Again, still not sure how godot sees McLellan as the driving force to Pitlick not getting signed, which he has said multiple times before.

    I truly do not know why PC didn’t resign him (maybe it was his crazy injury history, idk). Just have no clue why McLellan gets the blame for it.

    All that is fair.

    I trust TOI more than coaches words to know what he thinks.

  129. godot10 says:

    I would not complain about Chiarelli and McLellan getting rid of players if they actually replaced them.

    Justin Schultz was sent away 2 years ago, and Pitlick a year ago, and neither has been replaced yet in terms of skillset and/or ability.

  130. Abbeef says:

    godot10:
    Yamamoto deserves a shot away from the Lucic blackhole of death, before being sent down.The main problem with achieving that is the trial would probably be with the sinkhole of suckiness, Drake Caggiula.

    Khaira, Strome, and Yamamoto please.

    The three right wings (Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, and Rattie) might actually succeed if they can be kept away from Lucic and Caggiula.

    Caggiula has played 3 games this year. He was good in one and very good in the other two. Just out of curiosity how long does a player need to play well for before he doesn’t “suck”?

  131. godot10 says:

    Abbeef: Caggiula has played 3 games this year.He was good in one and very good in the other two.Just out of curiosity how long does a player need to play well for before he doesn’t “suck”?

    Caggiula can only be considered good on the “Ryan Jones” scale of goodness. The “headless chicken” style of hockey…I.e. Running around, not accomplishing anything except by accident. A random event generator.

  132. Ryan says:

    Who was talking about Pesce?

    Lebrun isn’t sure if Carolina would trade him for Nylander.

    If Pesce gets traded, it sounds like price is high.

    https://theathletic.com/595632/2018/10/17/lebrun-maple-leafs-dont-want-to-trade-william-nylander-but-if-standoff-drags-on-theyre-going-to-have-to/

  133. deardylan says:

    Will Yamamoto be sent down after 9G?

  134. BONE207 says:

    Ryan:
    Who was talking about Pesce?

    Lebrun isn’t sure if Carolina would trade him for Nylander.

    If Pesce gets traded, it sounds like price is high.

    https://theathletic.com/595632/2018/10/17/lebrun-maple-leafs-dont-want-to-trade-william-nylander-but-if-standoff-drags-on-theyre-going-to-have-to/

    I heard Dubas went to Switzerland for something other than chocolate and St. Bernards. Supposedly to meet with Nylander about assurances that they wouldn’t sign him then trade him. Maybe that means Nylander’s camp is softening on their stance & are more interested in playing in Toronto than getting paid a larger sum of $$$.

    I would hope they met where there was a wide array of Dirndls for a more pleasant ambiance.

  135. Lowetide says:

    deardylan:
    Will Yamamoto be sent down after 9G?

    I don’t think he’ll return to junior, no. Bakersfield a definite possibility, although this recent line shuffle may benefit him.

  136. Wilde says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Certified internet signature studier here, Glovjuice is not Cassandra/Caramel.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    deardylan:
    Will Yamamoto be sent down after 9G?

    His contract is subject to slide if he doesn’t play 10 games this year.

    With that said, even if he is sent down before 10 games, I don’t imagine he isn’t recalled at some point.

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: I don’t think he’ll return to junior, no. Bakersfield a definite possibility, although this recent line shuffle may benefit him.

    The 10 game rule on contract slides, if applicable, isn’t just for players going back to junior, it can be, in limited situations, for player in the AHL as it applies to those with NHL contracts not playing 10 NHL games in their draft plus 1 and 2 years (if 18 when signed).

  139. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide:
    Reading through today, just wanted to address some comments all over the blog in regard to negative/positive from the blog author. In ALL cases, I try to remove bias and deliver a neutral blog post to start the day. I am not always successful, but that is the goal.

    Also, I don’t write all of the headlines for The Athletic, but I’m not terribly concerned about it. I write the article with my title, and then sometimes an editor will change it. I think, in every case, the change has been an improvement but your mileage may vary.

    Finally, although I try not to tip the scales for conversation here, I was thrilled when Peter Chiarelli arrived and am more pleased with his work now that I see his direction (he is trying not to get fired before kids like Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, McLeod and Maksimov can make a difference).

    I am also far less angry about McLellan than every person on this blog. If you listen to the radio show, it should come as no surprise. I don’t think he’s had the horses, and was disappointed in Chia that he wasn’t more aggressive at the 2017 deadline.

    There. That’s as honest as I can be. You will NOT see me frame articles to reflect my bias because that’s never ever what I’m trying to create on the blog or at The Athletic.

    Love this response. LOVE IT!

  140. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: And $18 burgers!

    They shoud change the name of the burger to the “Lucic Burger”……I actually dont mind paying $18 for a burger…..IF ITS AN ACTUAL $18 BURGER!!!!!!

    (and if I dont have to pre-order in advance for 7 consecutive years)

  141. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: No, many team realized the value of data early.SJS was very early on the management side.

    Honest Question.

    How are we to reconcile the fact that TMac coached the “early analytics adopting SJS” from 2008 to 2015 with the idea that he’s not a guy who values analytics?

    Just noticing now that LT answered this question wiht

    “This is a great point. McLellan was iirc a ‘place and chase’ coach in San Jose as well, although (as here) the ridiculous have no such shackles. I remember this quote from Fear the Fin years ago about him:

    There’s no mistaking the Sharks’ identity now, six years into his coaching career. They’ve been a top-10 puck possession team (by Fenwick Close%) every year except for 09-10, although they responded the very next season by taking the “Corsi Cup” as the best possession team in the league in 10-11. The Sharks rank among the league’s best again this year, only behind the Kings and Blackhawks. It’s been McLellan’s blend of puck possession, a shoot-first attitude, and smothering defensive style that has led the Sharks to become one of the most consistent organizations in the NHL.

    I think, maybe I’m wrong, Mr. McLellan still views his SJS team as the goal. Dogged pursuit, place and chase for the 6’s and 7’s and 9’s, the right-side breakout of your own zone. Chia hasn’t given him that team of course, and adjustment is often slow for veteran coaches, especially when they’ve had success.”

  142. Andy Dufresne says:

    Ribs:
    Freidman has an interesting point here…

    Seems insane. Made up. Just another indication of how good this guy is.

    Yeah……but is he Hart Trophy material………..

  143. Ribs says:

    Woodguy v2.0: SportslogIQ has a video scraper that records puck and player movement from video of games.

    Whereas there are about 400 data points per game when you look at shot metric, SportslogIQ gathers about 4000 data points per game.

    That’s why there was a hiring spree for Database Managers a couple years ago among NHL team.

    That’s a boatload of data and managing it is a big job.

    Any team that pays for the data can get it.

    Sportsnet (and I think TSN, but not positive) have also purchased the data, although I think their deals are a little different than team’s deals.

    The media guysare not allowed to pull back the curtain and share reams of data, but are allowed to share some results.

    Andrew Berkshire who writes for SN gets access to their data.Here is an example: https://twitter.com/AndrewBerkshire/status/1052606346888179712

    Many teams get the data.

    If you were to rank each team from 1-10 in terms of organizing the data and trying to find something useful in it there are teams all across that scale.

    EDM is certainly in the lowest quadrant.

    Interesting stuff, thanks! Any idea how their scraping works? How does it differentiate players? Why is the NHL still talking about chips in the pucks and in the players gear if it’s not necessary?

    Is it safe to assume the Oilers have a “Database Manager”?

    Woodguy v2.0: No.

    Pete cut that tie pretty quickly

    Hmm. All signs point to them having something (else) now in place. Maybe the same system Chiarelli had in Boston? What did that look like? Closed door policy there as well?

  144. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    How are we to reconcile the fact that TMac coached the “early analytics adopting SJS” from 2008 to 2015 with the idea that he’s not a guy who values analytics?

    Management there is strong on using data to target players.

    There’s no question their “trade and or pay for elite or close to elite” dovetails with that.

    I’m not sure how much of that filtered down to the coaches.

    What I do know is that what worked in 2012 doesn’t work in 2018.

    Maybe Todd just isn’t current?

  145. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ribs: Interesting stuff, thanks! Any idea how their scraping works? How does it differentiate players? Why is the NHL still talking about chips in the pucks and in the players gear if it’s not necessary?

    Is it safe to assume the Oilers have a “Database Manager”?

    Hmm. All signs point to them having something (else) now in place. Maybe the same system Chiarelli had in Boston? What did that look like? Closed door policy there as well?

    Their software is pateneted, have no idea how it works.

    They are expanding to junior and AHL to help keep their marketshare as the NHL tracking data will probably be superior.

    I know that EDM subscribes. I know they don’t really make use of it.

    I don’t think they use anything else.

    I don’t think they check the data points that they use to see if they’re repeatable or if they are just descriptive.

  146. McSorley33 says:

    Yam!

  147. McSorley33 says:

    Brodziak and Kass against Krecji?

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