The Pittsburgh Penguins are fun to watch play hockey, and the franchise has delivered strong offensive teams for much of its history. Although expansion saw them struggle, by 1974-75 Pittsburgh delivered the No. 4 offense in the league (led by nine 20-goal scorers). Then came Mario and Jaromir and the Penguins became a famous team for the first time really, and for a good decade (1990’s) the team was among the most interesting in the NHL. Followed by a down time, a series of bad finishes and impact drafts, and the team arrived at the most productive period in its history (2006-today). Pittsburgh is bringing an All-Star cast to Rogers tonight.
All of that matters, but for Oilers’ fans the main attraction is the Thrill from Richmond Hill. Be it ever so boring, this is Edmonton—where Oilers hockey is the game in town. They’re playing in Connor McDavid’s house tonight. Expect the incredible.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Special offer is here, less than $3.50 a month!
- New Lowetide: Drake Caggiula might be hearing footsteps as the Oilers look for offence to replace injured Ty Rattie.
- Lowetide: Kirill Maksimov is tearing up the OHL, three Condors fly high.
- Lowetide: Peter Chiarelli’s race against time.
- Daniel Nugent-Hopkins: Asking McDavid to take on Bergeron line at home shows what Oilers are missing.
- New Daniel Nugent-Hopkins: Remembering Ron Chipperfield’s brief and hellish time as captain of the Edmonton Oilers.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Grant Fuhr talks about his journey, drug use and the state of goaltending.
- Lowetide: Math offers a surprising option for Leon Draisaitl’s struggling No. 2 line
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Patience preached as Jesse Puljujarvi attempts to carve out his spot in the Oilers lineup.
- Lowetide: Panic storm on the horizon as Oilers remain a one-man show
OILERS IN OCTOBER
- Oilers in October 2015: 3-4-0, goal differential -2
- Oilers in October 2016: 6-1-0, goal differential +10
- Oilers in October 2017: 2-5-0, goal differential -8
- Oilers in October 2018: 3-3-0, goal differential -6
The 2016-17 train left the station by Game No. 7 of the season, reaching +10 in goals and five games over true .500. That’s a nice area of town. The 2015-16 team is the closest comp for this year, that team had some promise but injuries derailed. Edmonton’s goal differential this season is the worry and it’s too close for comfort as a comp for one year ago.
PROJECTED LINES
- Nugent-Hopkins [6, 2-5-7]—McDavid [6, 4-7-11]—Yamamoto [6, 1-0-1]
- Tobias Rieder [6, 0-0-0]—Draisaitl [6, 2-4-6]—Puljujarvi [6, 1-0-1]
- Lucic [6, 1-1-2]—Strome [6, 0-0-0]—Cooper Marody [0, 0-0-0]
- Khaira [6, 0-0-0]—Brodziak [5, 0-0-0]—Kassian [4, 0-0-0]
- Klefbom [6, 0-2-2]—Larsson [6, 0-1-1]
- Nurse [6, 1-2-3]—Russell [6, 0-1-1]
- Kevin Gravel [0. 0-0-0]—Bouchard [5, 0-0-0]
- Talbot [6, 3-3-0, 2.69 .906]
Edmonton’s offense is pretty much McDavid, especially at 5-on-5. In that discipline, McDavid’s lines are 5-2, the rest of the team 1-9 (via NaturalStatTrick). This team is 3-3-0 with the non-McDavid units going 1-9, imagine if those lines were 9-9? What would the team record be with those numbers?
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER
- On the road to: Sweden to play NJD (Expected: 0-0-1) (Actual: 0-1-0)
- On the road to: Boston, NYR, Winnipeg (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: Boston, Nashville, Pittsburgh, Washington (Expected 1-3-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- On the road to: Nashville, Chicago (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: Minnesota (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 3-6-2, 8 points in 11 games
- Current results: 3-3-0, 6 points after six games
I had eight points as “reasonable”, Edmonton can reach that number tonight (with four games left). The key for me involves the Oilers remaining in this game, Penguins have the ability to blow out opponents every night. Edmonton’s three wins have come by a sliver, and their losses are three goal editions. There’s a large gap there, and the only team that ever won anything doing it that way was the 1960 Pittsburgh Pirates (and they won the NL pennant before the WS).
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM KEVIN GRAVEL
I like to get scouting reports on players, usually from their draft day but couldn’t find one on Gravel. When he was called to the NHL the first time, Jon Rosen from LAK Insider had a chance to chat with Ontario Reign coach Mike Stothers about Gravel.
- Stothers: “He plays a quiet, efficient, reliable game. His positioning and mobility are good, and he has a great stick. He makes plays, and the bigger the game, the better he plays. [He’s a] very coachable individual.” (Source)
If you don’t notice him, that’s probably a good thing. I thought he outplayed Garrison during preseason, and this start is overdue. No idea how well he’ll play but I do like this player type and absolutely value defending in today’s NHL.
In his one (fairly) complete NHL season, Gravel had a 55 percent Corsi for 5-on-5 and a rel percentage of +1.51 (ranking him No. 3 on the LAK). He could be here for a day or a year or many. I do like this bet.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM COOPER MARODY
I’m not sure he’ll play, although the lines at practice yesterday suggest it is probable. Marody’s offense so far in the AHL is evenly split:
- Marody at even strength: 5, 2-1-3
- Marody on the power play: 5, 0-3-3
- Marody on the penalty kill: 5, 0-0-0
It’s unlikely he sees a lot of the 5-on-4, but if the plan is to get him a regular shift at evens it’s reasonable to expect a shot on goal and some nifty passes. You never know, some players adjust to the NHL quickly. It’s going to be a fun debut, one of a few we’re anticipating (Caleb Jones, Tyler Benson) this year.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun morning begins at 10, TSN1260. It’s a big sports night and we’ll touch base in several areas. Scheduled to appear:
- Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. Evan Bouchard will play his sixth game tonight, has he earned more than nine?
- Seth Rorabaugh, The Athletic Pittsburgh. Sidney Crosby hasn’t scored yet, the Penguins aren’t firing on all pistons but no one is really worried. Do they break out tonight?
- Jonah Birenbaum, The Score. The World Series begins tonight, with two storied franchises going head to head. We’ll preview tonight’s game.
10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
When has Talbot gotten a free pass?
There were a lot of complaints about him in 15/16 and last year.
He did stop two breakaways last night and made a few other nice saves.
This team hands out glorious chances by the dozen nearly every game.
If the team plays a solid button down game and loses becauseof bad goaltending I think you’d have more of a point.
When has Talbot gotten a free pass?
There were a lot of complaints about him in 15/16 and last year.
He did stop two breakaways last night and made a few other nice saves.
This team hands out glorious chances by the dozen nearly every game.
If the team plays a solid button down game and loses becauseof bad goaltending I think you’d have more of a point.
What some fans are expecting of Talbot exceeds average goaltending imo.
Where was this phantom Strome assist? “Nothing ever happening” is not necessarily a bad thing. Low event hockey from the 3rd line can be considered a good thing, you know. It shortens the game,
Are we watching the same games? Yes I agree Strome hasn’t scored any goals yet (though he had an assist last night, which is a positive), but until last night none of the other lines had produced at 5v5. On the other hand, Strome’s line, regardless of who has played on it, has looked engaged, generated scoring chances and OZone pressure throughout the season. This team has a lot of issues to work through (Goaler, defending, over-playing 97 & 77, over-reliance on 97 for all things, a few curious lineup decisions and generally not great coaching), but thus far Strome has not been the problem. He’s hitting his stride as 3C and the scoring will come.
Yes, Yamamoto should be on the third line – that is where he’s had success during the regular season (and during exhibition, for what that’s worth). Who plays on the top line though – don’t say Rieder, he’s not a top six player let alone a top line player – he helps the team win when in the bottom of the lineup.
Its noteworthy, to me at least, that the top line has zero even strength goals in the 2 games that Yamamoto has played there. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s looked fine – he’s been solid on the forecheck, he’s drawing penalties and he just missed on point blank chance last night, however, they have yet to produce – I think that is a continuation of the beginning of last year.
The fact that Bouchard was under 7 minutes at evens and a minute against Crosby and less against Malkin (or the other way around), heavily sheltered is a clear sign that its going to be time for him to go soon. He’s simply not moving the needle, which is to be expected as a 19 year old, and he needs to go to the CHL.
I would like to keep Bear in the AHL as long as possible and the replacement, for now, should be Benning when he’s ready – hopefully that’s not too long. Benning struggles as 2RD but has been just fine as 3RD in his career and he and Gravel could/should make a solid 3rd pairing.
…10 games too late. He still has only one even strength point. So 3rd line is NOT a sure thing, but in this case it may be that he is in heaven, which is playing with Ryan Strome, where nothing ever happens.
Clearly, it’s Draisaitl’s fault that McDavid is scoring as many goals with Yamamoto as Draisaitl did…i.e. none. McDavid can’t drive his own line.
It is good that Yamamoto is drawing as many penalties, but perhaps he should play on the 3rd line.
For The Athletic: Todd McLellan finds a suitable spot in the order for Milan Lucic
https://theathletic.com/606342/2018/10/24/lowetide-todd-mclellan-finds-a-suitable-spot-in-the-order-for-milan-lucic/
– It’s nice to see some more positive tones from many here: I guess that is what winning does
– Cam Talbot: he’s been fairly poor this year though. Of goalies that have more than 4 starts (so starters), he’s 29th in SV%. If he was even .915, that’s 5 less goals. He’s had 2 really bad starts, and is amongst the worst in Saves above average – he bleeds goals that average goaltenders don’t let in statistically
– Talbot has let this team down a lot more than he has helped. This is by far more significant than the coaching, where Jessie plays, lack of secondary scoring, etc IMO:
– If we had better goaltending, I think we are 2 points better at least
– The opportunity though is if he gets better (or they actually use the back-up, and give him the chance to succeed)
– Talbot seems to get a free pass, or certainly not held to the same standard that vitriol is pointed towards other aspects of the team that many chose to focus on: that said, some seem to be catching on to this, which is also encouraging
The biggest story for me was the Oilers team we saw from the second period on was unlike any we’ve seen in recent history. They certainly had breakdowns but there was a structure to their game that we never saw last year.
Perhaps it was a one off but they were able to dominate a legitimate cup contender for long stretches and not only when 97 was on the ice.
How much of this is from the new coaching personnel? Has McLellan made significant changes to his game plan?
I agree the defense made some strange errors last night but you may take into account they were playing against Crosby, Malkin and Kessel and the top 4 is being overwhelmed with minutes because the coach doesn’t trust the third pair.
I feel the game offered far more positives than negatives.
Free Jesse.
The thing about Talbot is that you can accept 1 bad goal per game but not 3. He’s playing small in the net and gives up the top half of the net every single time. Even the goal by Crosby, which was amazing, if Talbot is confident and staying on his feet, there’s no angle.
Sorry, just reminds me of the end for Scrivens. Body language is poor.
Brodziak and Kassian are garbage.
Bouchard can’t contribute right now and shouldn’t be playing at all. Nurse-Russell is an adventure every time in the DZ. I honestly have no idea what reads Russell is making at times.
We can look at HDSC and shot shares and think “yeah, this team could make the playoffs”, but that’s a lotta minutes for McDavid, Larsson & Klefbom.
Revolved,
I agree. That should be Kassian’s last game as an Oiler. Time to ship him out.
Caribbeerman,
Can’t blame the goalie too much when opponents are given space and easy looks.
Is it too much to ask for our forwards to be more defensively responsible?
Based on performance, a 4th line of Chiasson – Khaira – Caggiula would be best right now (once Cags is healthy) and Brodziak and Kassian in the press box.
Very entertaining game but one that was carelessly lost because of a couple mistakes and some shoddy goal-tending. My thoughts on the team thus far on the season are:
* We have 4 actual NHL Defensemen that are being counted on to heavily and playing too many minutes. Gravel might be an answer, Benning has the potential to be, Bouchard should be returned to Jr, Garrison should be waved or emergency D, and Bear should be recalled.
* Brodziak and Kassian are a mess this year – Marody might be an answer to the question in terms of balancing some lines and getting some depth scoring. Overall, we are short a scoring winger as we wait for Yamamoto and Jesse to arrive.
* Talbot has been better than last year overall but you gotta have a decent backup to offer some relief and rest and at this point we can’t tell if that is available.
Overall there is potential there if the ends of the roster can be addressed.
I think there is now a ‘book’ on Talbot. Made some great stops but let in some soft backbreakers. Feeling like Devon Dubnyk era.
Ty Rattie must have given some intangibles to the McD line, because whatever he gave, is missing now and the line is basically shut down.
4th line officially a gift to the other team now, an invitation to score.
Todd clearly does not trust Bouchard. Bring up Bear.
Look this was a winnable game, entertaining for those who went for sure but let’s not make excuses. We should be not be satisfied with this game at all. It was there. what do the facts say? Look at save percentage and plus minus.
Yeah, when they showed the forwards with the highest TOI (McDavid and Crosby) at the end of regulation, I was surprised.
Crosby with 19 minutes and McDavid with 24 and a bit. I mean, if he has the stamina and heart and leg power to handle it, by all means. But obviously taking it easy here and there might do wonders come Game 82 and beyond.
Also helps that they actually had a few PPs in the game.
I agree – Gravel looked pretty solid in his 10 minutes (just under) of play. I think he could be trusted with a few more minutes and the top 4 reduced a bit. When Benning is ready, hopefully soon, that could be an effective 3rd pairing. For all the vitriol Benning gets on here, he’s proven to be good in 3rd pairing minutes and loses his effectiveness up the lineup. Gravel/Benning should be nice at 5 on 5.
Jesse seemed to be skating well last night but he’s not winning battles. Chiasson got a bump up on merit.
I do not think its a foregone conclusion that McLellan is replaced. The Oilers are almost through the toughest stretch of the year and have their head above water. 2 points out of the next two games and they will have set themselves up for a nice shot at the playoffs. I’ve found, while i still disagree with many of McLellan’s deployment decisions, the team systems are better this year, the in-game adjustments are better this year, he’s doing a good job at find ways to give McDavid some extra ice and special teams are much better. Perhaps the coach isn’t doing so bad this year.
McDavid played over 28 minutes.
He’s playing more than any forward in the modern era.
Perhaps he was getting a bit fatigued by that point in the game?
Talbot wasn’t awful awful but Murray, who was just OK himself, out-deuled Talbot last night and was the difference in the game.
The Oilers had more high danger scoring chances and lost – tending was a part of that.
Absolutely, the defence (and the forwards) made some tough mistakes last night – part of that is not being able to play the 3rd pairing enough meaning guys like Klef (who I thought was very good again last night) and Nurse (who, while his metrics look good, got lost on a few goals against) have to play over 25 minutes.
Drai’s best game – clearly.
Marody looked very good for his NHL debut.
Chiasson – too bad for that post and the puck in the face – do we have a value contract here? He’s not old and he’s got pedigree.
Lucic was very good.
Yamamoto keeps drawing penalties and he doesn’t look out of place on the first line but note that both games he’s been on McDavid’s wing, they’ve yet to score (and I think that is a continuation of what we saw at the beginning of last year).
Thought Gravel was solid – I’d be comfortable with bumping his minutes up a bit.
Larsson was bumbling with the puck on his stick but make a couple talented passes again – hit and miss with his puck moving – if only he could find some consistency in that regard.
Well that was fun! Something needs to be done about the fourth line, though. At least one of Brodziak or Kassian has to sit next game. Marody or Khaira could play fourth line center, though Marody looked great up the line up.
Woke up at 6 to watch the game on replay mode (Rogers game centre screwed me, set the scores to “off” but when refreshed the page to get from preview to replay it booted up the scores so I knew the outcome going in. Will need a better strategy.)
Reading this thread now I’m surprised at the mood in general- the Oilers have been keeping with the best teams in the entire NHL, and a record of 3-3-1 both reflects that, and is better than most had anticipated through now. It bodes well, especially as we can see improvement in areas through each game recently.
I may have missed some but I see very few comments on the encouraging fact that secondary scoring showed up against Pittsburgh.
Remember how long last season was? This season is the same amount of games. Pulling down points against the best teams in the league over the hardest stretch of the season while improving in bits and spurts is a good thing.
commonfan29,
To be fair that PP1 almost always gets 1:30. Late in a game, players are tired, you don’t want to give up the SHG.
Talbot needs to stop min 2 of those goals and really had a chance on 4 of them. Ok, Oilers, you paid a backup $2.5M – time to play the guy.
If he doesn’t play Thursday it’s time for #FreeKoski
I thought it was a great game too. You would like to see one or two more saves from Talbot but that’s hockey.
Gravel’s play tonight and in pre season should make him third line with Benning when Bouchard is sent down after 9
Enjoyed tonight’s game a solid effort by all players. Talbot was unfortunate to have the goal awarded that I viewed as being kicked in.
My only criticism is of the coaching staff …. JP 9.0 min for God’ sake let the horse run!!
And what scares me more is that GG is the obvious replacement in mid season, a HC with the same tendencies to repeat failed player selection over and over eg T Brouwer
One more thing why hire Manny V to run the power play if you do not hand him the reins….. still learning the ropes, I’m not buying what your selling, sounds more like “these are the plays/play(ers) we won’t you to work with”
Agree with both of you on this. Sitting in a bar in Canmore, cheering each oiler goal and then found myself cheering Sid’s last goal. If you didn’t enjoy this game you are not a fan of hockey as it can be played. Great game, mistakes and all. oops. I outed myself.
He also had 5 HDSC’s at 5-on-5. He played well.
Not a very popular opinion around these parts, but I thought Lucic played a really good game. Stats seem to back me up: 64% CF.
That was a pretty meh performance from Talbot. Time for hugefinishgoalermachine next game, methinks.
Ok my pro kassian rant has ended
Oleksiak With the Gordie Howe hat trick.
Nope, flunked the quiz.
It’s just I wrenched my back, helping Talbot out and was a bit defensive.
Enjoyed the game, immensely.
Bos8,
I guess I just miss the unbridled enthisiasm, thorough analysis of the team play on all levels, the spirited debate based on facts & numbers peppered with inside jokes, short stories, & toilet humor…
In my opinion. From ’06 til now, we have a fk of a lot more reasons to be enthusiastic now then we have ever since 100.3 TheBear was playing corny songs about H.O.P.E. *extra points for knowing the song*
Just a little calming oil on the troubled waters.
As Satchel said “Them comments were disputin”
commonfan29,
Exactly – that was an obvious time for a time out and then right back to PP1. But for some reason he was saving the timeout for some other purpose.
And the coach never plays the back up. So the back up will come in without playing in a month and everyone will wonder why the back up sucks.
my bad for assuming it was the Strome play
Bos8,
I Just think the vitriol, while somewhat understandable… Is getting to be a bit much. (& for the record, I’m a lifelong fan, & have been lurking here since 2006)
Todd yanking PP1 so quick at the end there really bothers me. Huge break and a chance to go for the win, but hold on – page 74 in the NHL coaching handbook says you have to change if it’s around a minute gone and there’s a stopage.
I just get the impression he doesn’t even think when it comes to that stuff – just runs the program.
Talbot committed too early. He should have waited a fraction longer. Nice move by Crosby though.
I thought one out of six goals where the goalie had a shot to make a save.
This mob evisceration of Talbot is just wrong. Undeserved.
That’s not necessarily the one I was talking about.
I think it was Bouchard with McDavid and Draisaitl, and Bouchard just slowly backed out as soon as he got it (almost immediately after McDavid got it into the OZ) instead of either attempting a shot or a pass to keep the drive going.
This could still be a rush, and in order to score off the rush you’d have to have offensive zone possession anyway so the two are not exclusive.
Both teams looked tired and slow in OT, though. Except for when McDavid tripped up Kessel behind Talbot and got onto a great rush where they almost scored.
I blame the puck to Chiasson’s face for the Oilers not winning in reg.
Entertaining game! Was Sid’s night to break out. Too bad on a night when he gets run support Talbot has a shaky game. To be fair he has been pretty solid this year up until tonight.
Bos8,
Quoted for truth…
I thought I had mistakenly stumbled into the comment section at ON or CnB… ?
.806 save percentage.Not the guy that will get us to the playoffs.
Agreed
frjohnk,
9 for JP and EB.
I don’t think it matters that the Oilers has just got into the end when the player (Strome I think) was in no position to make a play and was up tight against the blue line. It was either take it out or dump the puck away.
The chances of the Oilers scoring in OT coming in off the rush are far far greater than off zone possession.