Gunsmoke

As a kid, I loved westerns. Movies, books, television shows. Books were tough for the young Lowetide to bear, people bled and died, innocent people abused, there was sorrow, loneliness and a distinct lack of happy endings. Movies had those elements, but there was also a gigantic dollop of humor in most. Television? I loved every damn television western because people died during the commercial breaks and received a small mention when the show returned. Humor was everywhere! Guys shooting at each other all damned day, not a one of them ever got shot. Ol’ Doc on Gunsmoke would save the good guys. The bad guys never pulled through, but they always lived until the commercial. Last night, Oilers versus Penguins, it sure wasn’t television westerns. Blood everywhere.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Special offer is here, less than $3.50 a month!

  • New Lowetide: Todd McLellan finds a suitable spot in the order for Milan Lucic.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Four reasons why the Oilers should return Evan Bouchard to junior.
  • Lowetide: Drake Caggiula might be hearing footsteps as the Oilers look for offence to replace injured Ty Rattie.
  • Lowetide: Kirill Maksimov is tearing up the OHL, three Condors fly high.
  • Lowetide: Peter Chiarelli’s race against time.
  • Daniel Nugent-HopkinsAsking McDavid to take on Bergeron line at home shows what Oilers are missing.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Hopkins: Remembering Ron Chipperfield’s brief and hellish time as captain of the Edmonton Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Grant Fuhr talks about his journey, drug use and the state of goaltending.
  • Lowetide: Math offers a surprising option for Leon Draisaitl’s struggling No. 2 line

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Gravel-Bouchard went 9-5 in 5:37, 3-2 shots and no goals at 5-on-5. Gravel did take a minus during 1:37 with Kris Russell, who showed up a lot in the GA after having a reasonable run over the last few games. If you’re going to play your first-round blue less than seven minutes 5-on-5, then send him back to junior. Today. Gravel showed well to my eye, I absolutely believe he’s more substantial than Jason Garrison at this time.
  • Nurse-Russell were 23-22 in 17:10, 19-9 shots and 2-2 goals at 5-on-5. Todd McLellan asked the duo to defend Hagelin-Malkin-Kessel, and the pairing went 11-8 in 8:04, 1-1 in goals. The numbers look better than the video, but single events can have enormous impact while also being single events. For me, a lot of the blame goes in lack of roster balance. The top two pairings were asked to play a mammoth percentage of the 5-on-5 time against some of the most skilled men on the planet. That’s not balance!
  • Klefbom-Larsson went 15-21 in 19:01, 11-8 shots and 1-1 goals. I really like this pairing, and I think Oscar has returned to 2016-17 levels. He was not healthy last year, people. This year is better. Went 9-12 in 9:52 against Guentzel-Crosby-Rust, 7-4 shots and no goals. I think that was a success. Klefbom isn’t Larsson down low in the scoring area, but he’s more physical this year and can keep up with anyone in coverage. Larsson surprised the hell out of me. After about 20 lobs to the score clock from deep in his own zone to get the puck out (Oilers need to do less of that, but it’s better than icing it), he sent another dart to Chiasson for a jailbreak and a goal. Music!
  • Cam Talbot stopped 25 of 31, .806. I counted two goals that you’d want your goalie to stop, plus at least one rebound that was ghastly and eventually a goal, your mileage may vary. People are going to rage in the cage about playing the goalie too much, McLellan doesn’t trust the backup.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Lucic-Strome-Marody had a very strong game, going 14-7 in 11:15, 7-3 shots, 7-1 high dangers. This line performed well together and in opportunities up and down the lineup. Line went 6-5 in 6:33 against Johnson-Riikola. I hope to see this line again Thursday. Strome’s play on the OT winner is going to have legs as a GIF, but he’s playing very well now despite the lack of offense. Lucic had his best game of the year, delivering five individual high-danger chances and five hits (one of which was a public flattening). Marody impressed the hell out of me with his puck poise, that’s a phrase I never use (got beaten to death at hfboards) but it describes the rookie perfectly. In his first NHL game, Marody played exactly 58 seconds more than Jesse Puljujarvi.
  • Nuge-McDavid-Yamamoto were 16-18 in 15:52, shots 16-4 and no 5-on-5 goals. Were 13-15 in 13:51 against Dumoulin-Letang, 10-19 against the Crosby trio. McDavid played eight more minutes than Crosby, one of the reasons McLellan had to pull 97 off the ice during a late power play. McDavid is the most talented hockey player I’ve seen in my life. Nuge made dozens of smart plays, like passing, being in the right place, curling to reset and be in the play. A wonderful player. Yamamoto drew two penalties and delivered an intelligent shot, but he should have drilled the puck from the slot in the game’s opening moments. He’ll get there.
  • Rieder-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi/Chiasson were 9-11 in 10:03 (Rieder), 7-6 in 6:37 (Pulju) and 3-4 in 2:33 (Chiasson). Leon was 6-11 in 6:43 against Dumoulin-Letang, he was 2-0 against Jack Johnson. Rieder had an extra foot on his skating last night, seems to have gotten comfortable with his surroundings. A deft pass to Chiasson for his first goal, he also forechecked well. Draisaitl had the game we were hoping for, he looked determined and ready to wheel even late in shifts. A lot of pressure on this young man, he delivered last night. Puljujarvi forechecked like a demon but seemed to exit puck battles before they were over, I wonder if the words of the coach are ringing in his ears. He was the de facto No. 4 right winger by the end of the game, with disastrous results. Would McLellan sit the Finn? Yes.
  • Chiasson-Brodziak-Kassian were 6-9 in 6:21, 1-3 in goals. Puljujarvi spent less than a minute with Brodziak and was 0-2 5-on-5 with him. Lordy. That’s going to leave a mark. Chiasson had one of those games that gets you a trip up the depth chart in a quick hurry, I imagine he’ll be playing with the two German forwards on Thursday night. Where does that put Pulju? If you have to ask the question. Kassian’s stat line is the kind that gets you the pressbox, Brodziak would be sitting alongside if they had enough centers.

OILERS IN OCTOBER

  • Oilers in October 20153-4-0, goal differential -2
  • Oilers in October 2016: 6-1-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in October 2017: 2-5-0, goal differential -8
  • Oilers in October 2018: 3-3-1, goal differential -7

The OT loss last night keeps this year’s model in second place among these four campaigns, behind only the playoff season of 2016-17. The goal differential is alarming, and you’d like Edmonton to be closer to 10 points. That said, strength of schedule this fall is a monster Denver Boot for the Oilers.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

  • On the road to: Sweden to play NJD (Expected: 0-0-1) (Actual: 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Boston, NYR, Winnipeg (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: Boston, Nashville, Pittsburgh, Washington (Expected 1-3-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • On the road to: Nashville, Chicago (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Minnesota (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 3-6-2, 8 points in 11 games 
  • Current results: 3-3-1, 7 points after seven games

If you agreed with my projection for this month at the beginning of the crazy, then McLellan’s Oilers have delivered a successful opening. It’s the only rational conclusion available. If you’re arguing the other side after agreeing with me early, you’re moving the chains. I know they’re overplaying McDavid and his line and it’s going to impact his effectiveness. The Oilers should be resting Talbot and that’s a fact. The third pairing last night didn’t have a lot of trust from the coach. After several solid games the second pairing found chaos. All of that is true. They have seven points in seven games against some of the toughest teams in the league. If you’re still not impressed, after agreeing with my estimates, you’re moving the chains. That says more about you than it does about the Edmonton Oilers.

28:12

In October of 2013, coach Dallas Eakins ran Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for 28:12 in a 5-4 shootout win over the New Jersey Devils. The team proceeded to lose five in a row afterward, on its way to a 29-win campaign. I remember the conversation at the time: WHY did they play the Nuge so much? followed by a series of expletives.

I understand the rage, but what exactly do you want the coach to do? He’s buying time, hoping to get Leon right and Strome posting some offense and and figuring out what’s up with Kyle. I can’t argue against the plan, since it is the only one in town.

As for McDavid, at some point the club is going to need to give him some 15-minute games during a laugher. Perhaps November.

JESSE

Do you have kids? I have two of them. What you learn, with two children, is that they flourish in some things, struggle in others and as a parent you are mostly helpless in the outcome. You can support, push, pull, prod, love, cajole, help, but at some point you’re on the sideline living and dying with each event.

For fans of Jesse Puljujarvi, it’s another year of cheering and worry. Many many fans blame Todd McLellan and maybe that’s right, but the coach has a job on the line and last night Yamamoto, Chiasson and Marody all played more and were productive.

We’re on the sideline, living and dying with each event. Heartbreaking, this.

LUCIC

I wrote an item at The Athletic this morning on Lucic and his new home on the No. 3 line. Remember when we talked about the laundry list of things that needed to be accomplished this year? Right wing scoring, No. 2 RHD, backup goalie, et cetera? One of those items was a ‘peace in the valley’ slot for Lucic, where he could deliver offense and be productive. The article looks at McLellan’s handling of his winger and what is happening with Lucic in real time.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning with brilliant guests, beginning at 10 on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. We’ll get expert analysis of last night’s game and get a good look at that right wing depth chart in the clear light of day.
  • James Herbert, CBS Sports. The NBA season is underway, the balance of power leaning even more westerly than in previous seasons. Who will emerge as the eastern giant among Boston, Philadelphia and Toronto?
  • Jon Campbell, Oddsshark.com. We’ll chat odds on the World Series, the big Florida-Georgia college football game on the weekend and the coming storm that is college basketball (go Gonzaga!)

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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234 Responses to "Gunsmoke"

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  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Is there anyone left that still thinks that Bouchard should stay in Edmonton and play past his 9th game?

    He’s a very nice prospect and I have high hopes for him, however, he is being extremely sheltered (under 10 min last night and under at 5 on 5 with less than 2 min combined against Malkin and Crosby) – he did fine but he didn’t push the needle and he’s not materially making the team better. He didn’t make any big mistakes that I saw and made a nice block but, given all the risks with keeping him, its time to move on soon.

    Matty Benning, for all the vitriol he receives from the fanbase, has shown to be an effective 3RD in his career and struggles up the lineup. Hopefully he is healthy soon and can replace Bouchard as 3RD allowing Bear some AHL development time.

    I think Gravel can handle a few more minutes to help take the load off the top 4 – he played more when he was with the Kings.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    I agree with Lowetide (which goes against McCurdy) that Nurse and Russell had a tough night. Their metrics look fine and they are playing lots of minutes, however, they both made multiple mistakes that ended up in our net – potentially a function of the minutes catching up with them.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    I was quite vocal about Marody’s call-up being premature, however, he fit in just fine on that 3rd line last night and made some plays. Great debut. Lucic was great.

    Strome’s adventure in OT almost ended up with the game winner – inches from hero to goat.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Leon’s last two games have been his best – he was moving his legs against Nashville but still making bad decisions in the defensive zone. Last night he was rewarded with an even strength goal and could have had more.

    Keep it coming Leon, we need you.

  5. Jethro Tull says:

    LT, multiple single events during one game are, by definition, not single events.

    Thought it was a very good game to watch, both coaches hated it, and the Oilers should have locked down in the third.

    As soon as the commentator said, “Crosby being watched by Strome” I said to my mate “that’s because he’s dog tired” then Sid puts the moves on.

    As soon as Sid came over the boards, the closest player to the Oilers bench should have changed for McDavid or Nuge.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull:
    LT, multiple single events during one game are, by definition, not single events.

    Thought it was a very good game to watch, both coaches hated it, and the Oilers should have locked down in the third.

    As soon as the commentator said, “Crosby being watched by Strome” I said to my mate “that’s because he’s dog tired” then Sid puts the moves on.

    As soon as Sid came over the boards, the closest player to the Oilers bench should have changed for McDavid or Nuge.

    The numbers for several Oilers (possession, shots, et cetera) were positive. The events were a mixed bag. In order to make sense of things, we look to math and eye. I stand by my original assessment.

  7. McSorley33 says:

    Zach Kassian played only 7 minutes but was EXTREMELY effective – for the Penguins.

    Kyle Brodziak = Jason Garrison

  8. FlameChampion says:

    I thought the team played pretty well tonight. More good than bad. This type of game gives you hope that the Oilers can actually play fast.

    TM may not trust the backup but he hasnt even played a game. I dont think he puts his players in a position to succeed. I am sure Koskinen, who will likely be rusty, will be thrown out to the wolves against the cup champions (Washington). Major disconnect between Chiarelli and TM.

  9. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Jethro Tull:

    Thought it was a very good game to watch, both coaches hated it, and the Oilers should have locked down in the third.

    – I agree that perhaps the coaches hated it, but this is the brand of hockey the league, the fans (and the players) want

    – Went to NBA game, the last Raptors one: the game has sped up so much, kudos to the league to get everyone on the same page.

    – I know for certain that the NHL is trying everything to make hockey more offensive: we all dig the goals, and you can see it somewhat: will take more years though, but scoring is up this year again

  10. HugThePost says:

    FlameChampion:
    I thought the team played pretty well tonight.More good than bad.This type of game gives you hope that the Oilers can actually play fast.

    TM may not trust the backup but he hasnt even played a game.I dont think he puts his players in a position to succeed.I am sure Koskinen, who will likely be rusty, will be thrown out to the wolves against the cup champions (Washington).Major disconnect between Chiarelli and TM.

    It really makes one wonder just how much Chia and TMac communicate. Dysfunction wide open for everyone to see.

  11. Bos8 says:

    Lowetide: The numbers for several Oilers (possession, shots, et cetera) were positive. The events were a mixed bag. In order to make sense of things, we look to math and eye. I stand by my original assessment.

    Thanks LT
    Always dependable, always bring rationale to the table. It’s a gift.

    The Oilers are in the midst and holding their own in a schedule from hell. I would consider this a great start to the season. Instead we get macros in micro situations. Talbot’s save percentage is too low. No Shit, Sherlock. There are blown assignments all over. At the same time they’ve outplayed Boston, Nashville and Pittsburgh. Fair do’s I would say.

  12. frjohnk says:

    Chiasson had a game. What a first goal!!

    McClellan riding his horses. Klefbom and McDavid both with 28 minutes.

    I don’t see how Bouchard stays up. The game seemed a bit fast for him last night. But I love his future.

  13. pts2pndr says:

    The old western equivalent to coach McLellan is the man that rides his horse until it drops to try and save his wife and ranch. We will find out as the movie plays out if this is folly! As far as mcLellan not trusting his back up goalie that is this coaches history regardless of the goalie!

  14. npanciroli says:

    I think Puljujärvi is going to have a career but I think it might be time to see if you can get maybe a good RD or something for him. If the trade isn’t good then obviously you keep him, but the coach just doesn’t trust him.

    I know WG mentioned JP for Pesce. Something like that. Then Bouchard back to junior.

  15. BONE207 says:

    Gunsmoke…loved Miss Kitty.
    Russell looked like Festus out there last night according to the highlights.
    3rd & 4th lines need to step up. Some crooked numbers would make games more balanced in terms of scoring.
    Right now the Oilers look like the guy at the edge of a cliff hanging onto a root that is pulling out of the dirt. How much root is left is the question ?

  16. Bos8 says:

    TMac is in a career ending crux. The battle with Chia continues. He has forced Kassian into a dysfunctional inward spiral and is doubling down on Jesse. The Garrison, Chiasson, Koski cock ups are totally bewildering. “You got a plan, Charlie?”

    How riding a few studs into the ground benefits the team or personal survival is totally baffling.

  17. pts2pndr says:

    Observation..after 7 games..Jesse needs his old length of stick back. Heis just inches short on his poke checks and looks very uncomfortable with the new length of stick.
    It is my belief that there is lack of trust between JP and coach not unlike in a struggling marriage. Not sure this one can be fixed. Hard call for the GM but they appear unable to have success together!

  18. Bos8 says:

    The team as assembled by Chia has shown talent on a level with the top teams. TMac can’t seem to get beyond his preconceptions. The team is succeeding in spite of his throwing down caltrops in their path.

  19. Doug McLachlan says:

    So the Oilers lose there first 7 game series of the season, in game 7, in overtime, to Sid. I am ok with this.

    The Oilers are NOT a Cup contender this season, but we didn’t expect them to be – the expectation was pushing for a playoff birth and preferably inside that bubble come April. The reviews have to be positive.

    Record against playoff teams 2-3-1. Record against non-playoff teams 1-0-0.
    Record against the West 1-1-0. Record against the East 2-2-1. Record against the Pacific 0-0-0.

    Those are acceptable results.

    Series two starts tomorrow against Washington. 3 of the next 4 are against playoff teams but the clear air of November is coming.

  20. giddy says:

    Another game where I thought the Strome/Lucic 3rd line looked great. Always seemed to have the puck moving in the right direction, even if the score hasn’t been showing it yet. Marody looked good with them as well. With that line, plus if Draisaitl’s 2nd line can really get going (Rieder looked great, and it’d be nice if Chiasson becomes a solid option) while our 4th line cobbles along, perhaps McLellan will have the confidence to take his foot off the McDavid gas for a bit.

    Further, here’s hoping Rattie and Benning+Bear are all healthy again soon.

  21. texmex says:

    TMac is playing a very dangerous game playing McDavid 28 minutes a game trying to save his job. Should McDavid get injured due to the the insane minutes he’s playing, TMac will be fired b/c the Oilers will be at the bottom of the standings.

  22. JimmyV1965 says:

    FlameChampion:
    I thought the team played pretty well tonight.More good than bad.This type of game gives you hope that the Oilers can actually play fast.

    TM may not trust the backup but he hasnt even played a game.I dont think he puts his players in a position to succeed.I am sure Koskinen, who will likely be rusty, will be thrown out to the wolves against the cup champions (Washington).Major disconnect between Chiarelli and TM.

    I’m not sure there’s a disconnect between coach and GM when it comes to the backup goalie Tmac simply doesn’t trust the backup. He didn’t trust the backup last year or the year before. Tmac coaches scared. He coaches not to lose. He’s not going to trust any backup. Now the backup hasn’t played for a month, will almost certainly suck his first game and the coach will trust him even less.

  23. Durag says:

    A fun Oilers game! Haven’t had a lot of those lately.

    Pretty encouraging game. To my eye, we outplayed a real Stanley Cup contender by a fair margin and got significantly out-goaltended. We could have ran them out of the rink in the 2nd if Murray wasn’t solid and they didn’t score on every damn shot they got.

    It looks like we’re on the cusp of figuring out the 2nd and 3rd lines, with some actual competition waiting in the wings (literally) if guys falter. The top 4 also looks serviceable. Not Stanley caliber, not even Conference Finals caliber, but serviceable. Bouchard’s 9 games are timely and hopefully buy time for Benning and/or Bear to be healthy.

    Jesse – oh Jesse, what are we going to do with you? I want him to be Jere Lehtinen so badly. He is really fighting it and I’m beginning to think that McClellan’s prom date cheated on him with a lanky, moon-faced giant. I don’t know what the hell to do with him when Rattie comes back.

  24. texmex says:

    Durag,

    Bakersfield may be the best thing for him and the Oilers.

  25. Pescador says:

    pts2pndr:
    The old western equivalent to coach McLellan is the man that rides his horse until it drops to try and save his wife and ranch. We will find out as the movie plays out if this is folly! As far as mcLellan not trusting his back up goalie that is this coaches history regardless of the goalie!

    He’s like Wyatt Earp in Tombstone, his stubbornness is killing everyone around him.
    Michael Biehn & Bill Paxton very underrated, totally awesome.

  26. yamfry says:

    Not sure if anyone else listens, but the Overdrive show from TSN 1050 talked about McDavid’s minutes the other day and the host compared his usage to a star player in the NBA, where they obviously play a larger proportion of the game. Ray Ferraro, who was the guest at the time, made the point that McDavid economizes his effort on each shift very well due to his superior skating. What are other folks’ thoughts about this? I figure 28 min per game isn’t sustainable, but maybe 23-24 min is.

  27. Pescador says:

    texmex:
    Durag,

    Bakersfield may be the best thing for him and the Oilers.

    Man, is this sentiment from 2016? because it sure as fck should be!

  28. texmex says:

    Pescador,

    Why? What do you propose? Everyone complains TMac does not / will not play him so send him down where he will play 1st line AHL minutes including PP.

  29. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Yup, I’m now in full agreement, Bouchard should be sent down. If he’s going to play so little there’s not really anything else he can learn. Once Benning (and possibly Bear) are good to go I think it should end with Bouchard heading off to the OHL.

    In other news, I’m really not minding Rieder playing in the top 6. At least to the eye test, he seems to be the best winger to stick with Leon. Why not try Rieder-Drai-Marody to start the game on Thursday? Keep the top and 3rd lines the same, the bottom line is where it’s really interesting. I’m a huge fan of Jesse, but I think he might have just played himself out of the lineup for a game, the same with Kassian. If Caggiula is good to go I can see the 4th line being Cags-Brodziak-Chiasson.

    Now that said, who do we see being waived once Caggiula and/or Rattie comes back off IR?

  30. godot10 says:

    McSorley33:
    Zach Kassian played only 7 minutes but was EXTREMELY effective – for the Penguins.

    Kyle Brodziak = Jason Garrison

    Pitlick was playing with Seguin and Benn last night, for half the price of Kassian.

  31. BONE207 says:

    yamfry:

    I figure 28 min per game isn’t sustainable, but maybe 23-24 min is.

    Currently it is sustainable but for how long?. Connor has some of best years yet to come & he’s already spectacular!!!
    The only thing we can’t see is his cape & his walking on water skills.
    My concern is what happens when the tsunami hits the dike or a piece of kryptonite falls from the rafters? What’s left then?

  32. Pescador says:

    texmex:
    Pescador,

    Why? What do you propose? Everyone complains TMac does not / will not play him so send him down where he will play 1st line AHL minutes including PP.

    Sorry Texmex, we agree!
    my comment was not directed at you, but rather the decision to keep JP in the NHL when clearly he needed (needs) time in the AHL.
    big fan of your spice byw, you were dynamite on my baked potatoe last night

  33. FlameChampion says:

    JimmyV1965,

    I think at some point, the coach will just have to be replaced. I guess for me, its clear that hes not part of the solution so why wait to pull the trigger. He cant adjust, motivate, and get the most out of his roster. I also dont think his chip and chase strategy works that great in the new nhl and with his personnel. How many players have actually improved since TM became coach? Not very many that I can count and the ones who have improved, they were probably destined to be good players. Chiarelli has done a poor job providing him players. At the same time it doesnt seem that McLellan knows how to use the players once he gets them either. He really struggles to find roles for players (especially depth, bottom 6, backup goalies). He leans heavily on his star players, which hes always had in Edmonton and San Jose.

    I will say I dont know who should replace TM. The organization needs to do a throughout job, interviewing candidates. Problem is that it seems you cant trust the organization to do that.

    Hopefully the Oilers start climbing the standings once this brutal schedule ends. I dont like the idea of a desperate coach and desperate gm, given their history, running this team.

  34. Bos8 says:

    McClellan seems determined to neuter that Jesse talent. It’s an egoistic self destruct thing. Instead we get bells and whistles in Cag and Yama. A lot of commotion, no torque.

  35. godot10 says:

    frjohnk:
    Chiasson had a game. What a first goal!!

    McClellan riding his horses. Klefbom and McDavid both with 28 minutes.

    I don’t see how Bouchard stays up. The game seemed a bit fast for him last night. But I love his future.

    This organization cannot see the obvious over and over again, til the glow from the wine summits makes a fool of them.

  36. godot10 says:

    pts2pndr:
    The old western equivalent to coach McLellan is the man that rides his horse until it drops to try and save his wife and ranch. We will find out as the movie plays out if this is folly! As far as mcLellan not trusting his back up goalie that is this coaches history regardless of the goalie!

    More is more with this coach, which means he alienates certain players from him. No impulse control. No ability to delay gratification. No patience with high maintenance prospects.

  37. Andy Dufresne says:

    “McDavid is the most talented hockey player I’ve seen in my life.”

    Would that make Gretzky the smartest hockey player you’ve seen in your life?

  38. godot10 says:

    texmex:
    TMac is playing a very dangerous game playing McDavid 28 minutes a game trying to save his job. Should McDavid get injured due to the the insane minutes he’s playing, TMac will be fired b/c the Oilers will be at the bottom of the standings.

    Yeah…but Dylan Cozens, Kirby Dach, or Philip Broberg! -).

  39. Andy Dufresne says:

    “Puljujarvi forechecked like a demon but seemed to exit puck battles before they were over”

    JP is an amazing Bandi player!

    Tmac should challenge him to make 4 hits a game…..the type of hits that are intended to seperate the man from the puck or cause a little chaos in the attacking zone.

    “Would McLellan sit the Finn? Yes”

    And continue to shelter him……this guy is on slow development curve….and while that is not ideal….it is what it is.

  40. Pescador says:

    McSorley33:
    Zach Kassian played only 7 minutes but was EXTREMELY effective – for the Penguins.

    Kyle Brodziak = Jason Garrison

    4th line?
    Cagguila Khaira Chia’s son

  41. --hudson-- says:

    So Chiasson did a fairly good Tyler Pitlick impression last night?

    Glad to hear Marody played with confidence. Would be interesting to see him at 4C if Brodziak is struggling and JP back with Strome.

  42. dustrock says:

    We know it would be great to play Bouchard in the AHL but we can’t, and he can’t help enough now to play in the NHL.

    The Blues have sat Robert Thomas, who obliterated the OHL last year, for the last 3 games. Same problem, he can’t play in the AHL this year.

    Really wish they could give teams a 1 player exception per year for AHL play at age 18/19. Maybe next CBA?

  43. fishman says:

    Enjoyed last nights game. Oilers showed they do have some offensive punch beyond Conner! This roster however, is proving to be deficient. Chia’s bets on Garrison, Brodziak and Kassian (contract) have put TMac in a position where he has to overplay his big guns (add in the sheltering of Bouchard). Aside from Conner and Nuge top 4 d playing too many minutes. You might get away with this for a while but guessing there will be a price to be paid at some point. Fatigue may lead to more injuries, poor play etc.

    TMac under big pressure to win combined with a GM who has made some poor bets on supporting cast (do like Reider and Chaisson though). What could go wrong????

    Hopefully Drai is out of his mini slump in play.

  44. dustrock says:

    Oilers need a 2LW and a 2RHD, and then I think they’re set.

    Puljujarvi, not sure what else we can say. Just like Yakupov, whether it’s the organization, the coach, the player, or a combination of all 3 (it’s a combination of all 3), he looks lost.

    I get that he is the same age as Yamamoto but for a player with his supposedly elite level of talent, you sure don’t see game by game.

    I mean this is the gamble the Oilers have now – do you wait the rest of this season to see what you have with him?

    Or does that crater his value? We traded Yakupov for a 4th. And now he’s in the K.

  45. godot10 says:

    dustrock:
    We know it would be great to play Bouchard in the AHL but we can’t, and he can’t help enough now to play in the NHL.

    The Blues have sat Robert Thomas, who obliterated the OHL last year, for the last 3 games.Same problem, he can’t play in the AHL this year.

    Really wish they could give teams a 1 player exception per year for AHL play at age 18/19.Maybe next CBA?

    You destroy your development league by doing that. Neither Bouchard, nor Thomas will be hurt going back to junior.

  46. Andy Dufresne says:

    Gunsmoke.

    I think Draisaitls nick name should be “Big Hoss”

  47. v4ance says:

    Pleasantly surprised at the overall record during this stretch of difficult games as I thought we could be 2-4-1 or worse.

    Concerned like many others that McLellan is playing McDavid, RNH, top 4 D and Talbot way too much in a desperate effort to save his job. Some of the mental errors in this game could have been a result of overplaying certain players.

    It’s a catch-22; he needs to play his best players to keep winning but the more he plays them, the more fatigued they get and the more they make mistakes that lead to losses.

    The game overall was another “learning game”. We did hang in with one of the best teams in the league but made a few critical errors to give away a few goals to keep them in the game. This was similar to the Nashville game where one shorthander and one 5v5 goal were the only real stumbles that decided the overall contest. If we can actually learn from these lessons and improve, we’ll be powering into the playoffs with the easier late season schedule.

    As much as I felt that Lucic had a bad game against Nashville, I have to give him props for a good bounceback game against the Pens. My feeling was that if McLellan was stubborn on keeping Lucic on the top 2 lines thru the 1st 10 games, the team would struggle and he’d get fired. I’m glad the coach came around and is putting Lucic in a spot where he can succeed. I’d still want to replace him on PP#1 with Jesse but baby steps…

  48. dustrock says:

    fishman,

    Agreed. Overall, I think Brodziak and Kassian have been very poor. Garrison seemed a stretch even as a PTO.

    I’ve seen enough of Kassian post-playoffs that I believe he’s replacement level at this point.

    He used to have an element of skill, speed, and crazy, and it was at times wildly effective.

    Now he just blends in with everyone else on the ice.

  49. McSorley33 says:

    Pescador,

    4th line?
    Cagguila Khaira Chia’s son
    **********************************************************
    Exactly…

    I was bullish on Kass – liked his speed and grind. But his play in his own
    end is a nightmare.

  50. McSorley33 says:

    dustrock,

    Oilers need a 2LW and a 2RHD, and then I think they’re set.

    Puljujarvi, not sure what else we can say. Just like Yakupov, whether it’s the organization, the coach, the player, or a combination of all 3 (it’s a combination of all 3), he looks lost.
    *****************************************************************************************************
    I remember me slagging Mathew Tkachuk for his skating and his linemates.

    Hoo boy – am I good.

    12 points in 9 games for Mathew….

    I know we say Columbus GM Jarmo took Dubois because he was a C but sometimes I am not
    sure if that was the -only – reason he passed Puju.

    For the record, not meaning to second guess our pick at all it was a no brainer to run up and
    select Puju.

  51. Bos8 says:

    McSorley33:
    Pescador,

    4th line?
    Cagguila Khaira Chia’s son
    **********************************************************
    Exactly…

    I was bullish on Kass – liked his speed and grind. But his play in his own
    end is a nightmare.

    It’s called the McLellan effect. Down curtain, shortly.

  52. Alpine says:

    Really bitter loss last night at least for me. To have the floodgates open offensively and still give up six because our goalie might be pretty fatigued.

    We did play well, against a very good team at that. But we need to start beating the best more often. It’d be nice to overachieve more to the point where it’s simply achieving.

    I saw Gravel good last night. Seems like he can handle third pairing.

  53. Dee Dee says:

    Coaches job is to win games, end of story. It’s not about impulses, alienation, confidence, gratification, neutering, ego, self-destruction or disconnecting.

    The team is sitting at .500 and treading water in a shit from HELL opening schedule. The defence is wired together with duct tape and chicken wire. The power play is starting to click, secondary scoring is starting to emerge.

    Young players need to learn the plan and execute the plan to the best of their abilities. The closer the player sticks to the plan the more the Coach will use them. Maybe Jesse should be sent down to the minors to find his game again and earn the right to play on the big team again.

    Koskinen will play when he is ready and when it will benefit the team. There’s no point to throwing him to the Wolves if he hasn’t adjusted yet and is still playing on his Heels. The Coaches are obviously watching him during practices and monitoring his progress. Playing him against the Stanley Cup Champions is probably not the path to success for him.

    This year Hockey has been fun to watch and the team is progressing.

  54. giddy says:

    dustrock,

    Agreed on Kassian. The way I see it, he (or his agent) knows the style of play when he’s at his best is described as complete reckless abandon for his safety and others, which is the style he played in his first two years with the oil, coincidentally both years when he was playing for a contract.

    That style of play doesn’t exactly lead to career longevity in terms because it’s can’t be easy on the body. Kass gets paid for three years, takes two years easy. I bet he brings that style of game next year, but I doubt he’ll be on the Oil by then.

  55. knighttown says:

    A few things:

    1. I didn’t think Jesse was that bad last night. I’m surprised he didn’t get a point on Leon’s first goal but even if he didn’t he disrupted the play and took two defensmen to the net. And then later very nearly scored when he went to the net, out muscled Letang, kicked the puck to his stick and got a hard shot away. Murray robbed him. Chiasson was otherworldly. Yammo was drawing trips and Marody was excellent. Seemed like more of an ebb-and-flo than a demotion. He’ll be back in the top-9 in another game or two when one of those three comes back to earth.

    2. Not sure I agree that the Yammo pass was a bad choice. If he connects on a challenging saucer pass it’s 100% a goal. Probably a 65% chance he connects on that pass to about a 50% chance he beats a completely in position Murray. Either play would have been fine.

    3. Nurse is a fine hockey player but he is the least self-aware player I’ve ever seen. He scored that one beauty and now it’s Bobby Orr time. As a guy who coached defense he makes my spidey-sense tingle with those “passes off the boards to nowhere and join the rush” plays because each and every time he gets on the wrong side of the puck. Those pucks were all knocked down and went the other way making him scramble to get back but none were handled cleanly so it didn’t have any impact but it will. He needs to generate his offense within the system and not force the issue so much.

  56. npanciroli says:

    Hard to get down on Oilers for the Puljujärvi pick itself, much easier to get down on Oilers for how they develop offensive talent.

  57. dustrock says:

    I sure unloaded both barrels on Talbot last night on Twitter, and overreacting to the goalie having one bad game is not good.

    But my concerns are going back a ways to last season. Where’s the confident Talbot we saw in the preseason, who was standing tall and cutting down angles?

    I just feel like the book is out there on Talbot and teams are going to score on him.

    He goes down easily but gives up the top half of the net and he doesn’t have the size of someone like Dubnyk to keep the openings closed.

    Perhaps it’s just pressure/confidence related but if he doesn’t figure it out soon then the season will turn out like last year.

    What I liked about the team very much last night was that they did not let off the goddamn gas after Pittsburgh kept scoring. In many other games and seasons, they would have folded and it might have gotten ugly.

    Arguing about intangibles is probably a fool’s errand but this fool was impressed with the Oilers’ resilience last night.

    At least they tried, goddamn it. At least they did that. Ditto with Nashville.

  58. Brantford Boy says:

    Pescador: He’s like Wyatt Earp in Tombstone, his stubbornness is killing everyone around him.
    Michael Biehn & Bill Paxton very underrated, totally awesome.

    Great (LT/Pescador), now I have to watch Tombstone tonight…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icCmo2p6w8g
    “You tell ’em I’m coming… and hell’s coming with me, you hear? Hell’s coming with me”

  59. Brantford Boy says:

    v4ance: As much as I felt that Lucic had a bad game against Nashville, I have to give him props for a good bounceback game against the Pens. My feeling was that if McLellan was stubborn on keeping Lucic on the top 2 lines thru the 1st 10 games, the team would struggle and he’d get fired. I’m glad the coach came around and is putting Lucic in a spot where he can succeed. I’d still want to replace him on PP#1 with Jesse but baby steps…

    +1… I was hoping you’d address the PP, and you did… I just raise me arms up in a flail wondering why he’s on the ice on the #1 unit…

  60. HenryDrix says:

    Agree with Gravel being a better option than Garrison, and much younger with upside. Why can’t the coaches see what most fans can agree on? Chiasson ate Kassian lunch and my have sealed Zach’s ticket out of town. He is a more substantial player at 1/3 salary. Jesse, oh Jesse, you have to stop skating directly at the guy on your team carrying the puck!!! It’s going to destroy your dream young man. Glad to see Leon have a good game, keep it going King Tiger.

    Glad we got a point.

  61. Leroy Draisdale says:

    knighttown:
    A few things:

    1. I didn’t think Jesse was that bad last night.I’m surprised he didn’t get a point on Leon’s first goal but even if he didn’t he disrupted the play and took two defensmen to the net.And then later very nearly scored when he went to the net, out muscled Letang, kicked the puck to his stick and got a hard shot away.Murray robbed him.Chiasson was otherworldly.Yammo was drawing trips and Marody was excellent.Seemed like more of an ebb-and-flo than a demotion.He’ll be back in the top-9 in another game or two when one of those three comes back to earth.

    2. Not sure I agree that the Yammo pass was a bad choice.If he connects on a challenging saucer pass it’s 100% a goal.Probably a 65% chance he connects on that pass to about a 50% chance he beats a completely in position Murray.Either play would have been fine.

    3. Nurse is a fine hockey player but he is the least self-aware player I’ve ever seen.He scored that one beauty and now it’s Bobby Orr time.As a guy who coached defense he makes my spidey-sense tingle with those “passes off the boards to nowhere and join the rush” plays because each and every time he gets on the wrong side of the puck.Those pucks were all knocked down and went the other way making him scramble to get back but none were handled cleanly so it didn’t have any impact but it will.He needs to generate his offense within the system and not force the issue so much.

    Totally agree on all points!

  62. Pescador says:

    Alpine:  

    Gravel. Benning.
    That could work as a 3rd pairing,
    30 shifts for Russell last night.
    Too much riding on his shoulders for playoffs to be hoped for.
    Not his fault, before last night, he had played very well.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Chiasson not practicing today.

    Benning is back on the ice.

    Getting Benning back would be huge – we need him back to so that the right decision can be made with respect to Bouchard and Bear can get some more development time in the AHL.

    No more d-injuries please!

  64. John Chambers says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Chiasson not practicing today.

    Benning is back on the ice.

    Getting Benning back would be huge – we need him back to so that the right decision can be made with respect to Bouchard and Bear can get some more development time in the AHL.

    No more d-injuries please!

    I had the same thought last night – a productive Benning on a 3rd pair with Gravel would be a godsend.

    I wouldn’t mind keeping Bourchard up for the season if it accelerates his development, and if he can continue to improve 5×5, howvever the major rationale for sending him back is the expansion draft.

    Having to protect 4D and lose either Puljujuarvi or Yammamoto is a reason in and of itself to send Bourchard back to the OHL this year. I hope Chiarelli sees it the same way.

  65. leadfarmer says:

    One of the things I was surprised with Larsson when he came here was his poor passing. I thought he had a very good pass in Jersey. He came here and his passing fell off a cliff. Good to see him making nice passes again

  66. leadfarmer says:

    John Chambers: I had the same thought last night – a productive Benning on a 3rd pair with Gravel would be a godsend.

    I wouldn’t mind keeping Bourchard up for the season if it accelerates his development, and if he can continue to improve 5×5, howvever the major rationale for sending him back is the expansion draft.

    Having to protect 4D and lose either Puljujuarvi or Yammamoto is a reason in and of itself to send Bourchard back to the OHL this year. I hope Chiarelli sees it the same way.

    OIlers fans:

    “Put the prospect in and let him play.”
    (2 years later)
    “This player sucks. He has no idea what he is doing”
    “oh look a new prospect”
    “Put the prospect in and let him play”
    …..

    There is no such thing as accelerating development. Each player will develop at his own time. This is not a development league. Unless the player is clearly ready they need to be sent to lower leagues

  67. vinotintazo says:

    who’s this adam larsson who’s sending great break away passes?!!!

  68. leadfarmer says:

    dustrock:
    I sure unloaded both barrels on Talbot last night on Twitter, and overreacting to the goalie having one bad game is not good.

    But my concerns are going back a ways to last season.Where’s the confident Talbot we saw in the preseason, who was standing tall and cutting down angles?

    I just feel like the book is out there on Talbot and teams are going to score on him.

    He goes down easily but gives up the top half of the net and he doesn’t have the size of someone like Dubnyk to keep the openings closed.

    Perhaps it’s just pressure/confidence related but if he doesn’t figure it out soon then the season will turn out like last year.

    What I liked about the team very much last night was that they did not let off the goddamn gas after Pittsburgh kept scoring.In many other games and seasons, they would have folded and it might have gotten ugly.

    Arguing about intangibles is probably a fool’s errand but this fool was impressed with the Oilers’ resilience last night.

    At least they tried, goddamn it.At least they did that.Ditto with Nashville.

    This team gave up very high danger scoring chances left and right. Tire fire D was back on display. I cant believe how many people are blaming Talbot. Look around you. All these “elite” goalies falling apart because of chest protectors. Even good goalies have weaker games

  69. dustrock says:

    leadfarmer: This team gave up very high danger scoring chances left and right.Tire fire D was back on display.I cant believe how many people are blaming Talbot.Look around you.All these “elite” goalies falling apart because of chest protectors.Even good goalies have weaker games

    I think the equipment changes are definitely a factor, but I see a different, less confident Talbot compared to the preseason, which is why preseason is meaningless.

    As I said, I can give him one iffy goal but he does not seem locked in to me at all.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like Chiasson will be able to play tomorrow.

    I wasn’t able to listen live to the coach’s presser (damn clients) so am not sure if any updates were given on Drake or Benning.

    Would love to get Matty B. back to get Bouchard a few games watching from above.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Durag:

    It looks like we’re on the cusp of figuring out the 2nd and 3rd lines, with some actual competition waiting in the wings (literally) if guys falter. The top 4 also looks serviceable. Not Stanley caliber, not even Conference Finals caliber, but serviceable. Bouchard’s 9 games are timely and hopefully buy time for Benning and/or Bear to be healthy.

    I’d really like Bear to be able to get a good stretch of AHL development time so, hopefully Benning is back soon (he was on the ice at practice today). I am confident in his abilities in a 3rd pairing role.

  72. Richard S.S. says:

    Ethan Bear needs a couple of games to get back up to speed for a recall to be practical.
    1) Bakersfield hardly plays early in their season. Could take a week to get two games in.
    2) The extent of his injury is still unknown. Best case says 7-10 days, but is it best case?
    It’s apparent Ethan Bear will not be ready for callup before Evan Bouchard exceeds nine games.

    Matthew Benning is closer to being ready to return than Ethan Bear, but how close he is, that’s still unknown. At the earliest, Evan Bouchard’s 9th Game occur Sunday the 28th, second game of a back-to-back. Can Matthew Benning be ready to return by Tuesday the 30th?

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Pitlick was playing with Seguin and Benn last night, for half the price of Kassian.

    and he got his very first point of the season in his 8th game – I wonder if he got his possession metrics up to 50% or his relative possession metrics higher than -3.00.

    I like Pitlick but he is simply not the player you seem to make him out to be. He is cheap though – better be given the 3 year contract.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    As Per Reid Wilkins:

    Benning says he had his bell rung in hit with Backes last week. Had concussion-like symptoms. Says he’s feeling good.

    Apparently this was “concussion-like symptoms” but not a concussion – not sure I believe that….

  75. Oilin4 says:

    John Chambers: I had the same thought last night – a productive Benning on a 3rd pair with Gravel would be a godsend.

    I wouldn’t mind keeping Bourchard up for the season if it accelerates his development, and if he can continue to improve 5×5, howvever the major rationale for sending him back is the expansion draft.

    Having to protect 4D and lose either Puljujuarvi or Yammamoto is a reason in and of itself to send Bourchard back to the OHL this year. I hope Chiarelli sees it the same way.

    Agreed. But I also think it’d be better for Bouchard’s development to play 22 minutes every game in London (and for Team Canada at WJHC) than it is to play 8-12 minutes two out of three games in Edmonton. If it’s even close to even between him and the next guy right now, send him down and let him develop.

    Also, to my eye he lacks the strength to win battles on D and the calmness/maturity to make smart plays at the O zone blueline. Sending him to junior puts him in a position to dominate, gain confidence and develop, rather than be beat up and schooled by people much stronger and more mature than him (at the moment).

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Benning was in a no-contact jersey and can’t be activated for Thursday.

    Hopefully he’s an option for Saturday.

  77. Oilin4 says:

    Everyone’s been saying it for years, but man does a real 2 RHD solve problems for this team. Moves Russel and Benning to a third pair, sends Bouchard down, and allows Gravel/Garrison to compete for 7D, first AHL call-up spot.

    Woodguy asked on twitter a week or so ago if you trade PoolParty for a plug and play at RHD with a good contract and term. I hated the idea at the time, but PoolParty is close to put up or ship out time, and it may be time to maximize the asset. Getting buried in the lineup for every mistake is not good for development and TMac has a horrible history with prospects.

  78. Oilin4 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Sounds like Chiasson will be able to play tomorrow.

    I wasn’t able to listen live to the coach’s presser (damn clients) so am not sure if any updates were given on Drake or Benning.

    Would love to get Matty B. back to get Bouchard a few games watching from above.

    Doubt very much they play Bouchard in both games of back-to-back (esp in games they can’t shelter him in). I think he gets to the 30th, and decision comes in November.

  79. pts2pndr says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    So the Oilers lose there first 7 game series of the season, in game 7, in overtime, to Sid.I am ok with this.

    The Oilers are NOT a Cup contender this season, but we didn’t expect them to be – the expectation was pushing for a playoff birth and preferably inside that bubble come April.The reviews have to be positive.

    Record against playoff teams 2-3-1.Record against non-playoff teams 1-0-0.
    Record against the West 1-1-0.Record against the East 2-2-1.Record against the Pacific 0-0-0.

    Those are acceptable results.

    Series two starts tomorrow against Washington.3 of the next 4 are against playoff teams but the clear air of November is coming.

    Clear air might not be good enough if your tank is depleted and the airport isn’t even close. What good to win the battle and lose the war! The season is long but there is light so to speak at the end of the tunnel. Still to be determined if it is sunlight or a train! The team has been fun to watch and I am enjoying watching certain players improving and growing into their roles!

  80. McSorley33 says:

    Listen we have to give the Gravel kid a few games first….but:

    It sure seems to me that his ( Gravel’s ) toolkit *far* surpasses Mr. Garrison.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Koskinen will get “at least one of the next 3 games”.

  82. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Send Yamamoto down and play Pulju with RNH-97

    Confidence! At least pump his numbers if you’re going to give up on him

  83. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    So, I’m reading that as Bouchard likely in again on Thursday night and Nurse-Russel, Klef-Larsson playing a million minutes again. They’ll be burnt out by the time Benning is back at this rate!

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    I saw Gravel good last night. Seems like he can handle third pairing.

    Agreed and I think he can handle a few more minutes. Lets recall, from most accounts, he was turning in to an every day 3rd pairing guy in LA before he got sick.

  85. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Sounds like Chiasson will be able to play tomorrow.

    I wasn’t able to listen live to the coach’s presser (damn clients) so am not sure if any updates were given on Drake or Benning.

    Would love to get Matty B. back to get Bouchard a few games watching from above.

    That will develop Bouchard. One, maybe two, good practices a week, and sitting in the pressbox, and getting 8 minutes when he plays.

  86. godot10 says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Ethan Bear needs a couple of games to get back up to speed for a recall to be practical.
    1) Bakersfield hardly plays early in their season.Could take a week to get two games in.
    2) The extent of his injury is still unknown.Best case says 7-10 days, but is it best case?
    It’s apparent Ethan Bear will not be ready for callup before Evan Bouchard exceeds nine games.

    Matthew Benning is closer to being ready to return than Ethan Bear, but how close he is, that’s still unknown.At the earliest, Evan Bouchard’s 9th Game occur Sunday the 28th, second game of a back-to-back.Can Matthew Benning be ready to return by Tuesday the 30th?

    This is the 2nd year in a row that Bakersfield hardly plays any games in October. What up with that?

    I thought the point of going to Bakersfield was a few fewer games but more practice time between them. But they are getting all their practice time in October, and then a normal schedule of games after.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu:
    OriginalPouzar,

    So, I’m reading that as Bouchard likely in again on Thursday night and Nurse-Russel, Klef-Larsson playing a million minutes again. They’ll be burnt out by the time Benning is back at this rate!

    Yes, that seems to be the scenario for Thursday – a function of Benning’s injury a bit.

    I’m hopeful we will see Benning in on Saturday when he’s able to be activated from IR (I think) – 7 days, yes, it was last Sat, wasn’t it?

  88. Side says:

    godot10: That will develop Bouchard.One, maybe two, good practices a week, and sitting in the pressbox, and getting 8 minutes when he plays.

    Why do you dismiss this kind of experience? Do you not see any value in Bouchard travelling with an NHL club, seeing first hand what he will need to work on, seeing what it’s like to train/practice as a pro at the NHL and observe the game. Use these things as takeaways if (hopefully when) he goes back down to the OHL (?) level?

  89. Richard S.S. says:

    Oilers play both days this weekend. As long as Bouchard doesn’t play both, Benning could come back for either. But Benning does not play both games, not just yet. That does hold Bouchard’s games at eight.

  90. godot10 says:

    Side: Why do you dismiss this kind of experience?Do you not see any value in Bouchard travelling with an NHL club, seeing first hand what he will need to work on, seeing what it’s like to train/practice as a pro at the NHL and observe the game.Use these things as takeaways if (hopefully when) he goes back down to the OHL (?) level?

    I dismiss it because I am not smarter than everyone else, like the Oilers management and coaching staff are.

    Yesterday, somebody posted a list of highly drafted defensemen over the last decade and when they broke in. The Oilers are clearly smarter than everyone else. Their record over the last decade is a irrefutable evidence of their superior decision-making and talent procurement and development.

    Willis did a time on ice analysis of the defensemen who played in draft plus one. Bouchard was last

    The geniuses in the Oilers organization have figured it out. Don’t play him in junior. Don’t play him in the NHL. Don’t play him. That’s the golden ticket to development.

    If the Oilers don’t send him down to London soon, he is not going to get enough games in to be ready to maximize the World Junior Championships from a development perspective.

  91. ArmchairGM says:

    If I were a GM in this league, I’d be on the phone rfn to Chiarelli inquiring about JP. Is a 3rd round pick too much?

  92. Side says:

    godot10: I dismiss it because I am not smarter than everyone else, like the Oilers management and coaching staff are.

    Yesterday,somebody posted a list of highly drafted defensemen over the last decade and when they broke in.The Oilers are clearly smarter than everyone else.Their record over the last decade is a irrefutable evidence of their superior decision-making and talent procurement and development.

    Willis did a time on ice analysis of the defensemen who played in draft plus one.Bouchard was last

    The geniuses in the Oilers organization have figured it out.Don’t play him in junior.Don’t play him in the NHL.Don’t play him.That’s the golden ticket to development.

    If the Oilers don’t send him down to London soon, he is not going to get enough games in to be ready to maximize the World Junior Championships from a development perspective.

    Player development is not a “1 size fits all” model. And the data available only shows the results of 1 chosen development path. It’s hard to argue that an alternative development path would be better for a player when you only have 1 dataset to work with.

    The “Oilers can’t develop players” mantra is a strange myth.

    Oilers haven’t had a problem developing players, imo. They seem to have a problem with not recognizing the talent they have and sending them off to other organizations for next to nothing before they reap the benefits. Or, their scouting staff struggled with picking talent. They do have their misses, but so does every organization and even then, is development to blame? Or was it on the player?

    Darnell Nurse, Klefbom and Petry seem to be doing well after being drafted and developed by the Oilers. Bear and Jones look like they are on track. Justin Schultz you could argue was a failure in development, but imo, the GM failed Schultz by not getting better defenseman to shelter Schultz and allow him to grow.

    People act like every high level prospect the Oilers get is rushed and ruined but they aren’t.

    So yes, I would say the Oilers do know something more than you or us, about player development.

  93. Melvis says:

    The less you drink, the less you drink. I was dry last night for the first time in a dog’s age.

    Since nearly everything regarding last night’s game has been covered, I’m wondering about the following:

    -Does Talbot play with less confidence at home as opposed to the road?

    -Whether the first shot, or the 30th – is he tracking the 40 to 60 footer, the head on slapper, by eye, and /or is he positionally placed for receipt if he can’t see it? Only a goaler here might know for sure.

    There’s that split second prior to that shot that eveyone here winces on, knowing full well it’s going into the net. If we can see it, why can’t he? Yesterdays example showed way too much net space on his glove side from the shooter’s pov. It’s a problem.

    Another thing. There’s a huge difference between critique and outright mindless, pissed off criticism. I’m as guilty as anyone in that latter regard. Yeah, I know – it’s fun in the moment after a couple of pops. But I’m going to rein it in in the future. It’s tiresome and immature.

    Thee are more than 7.5 billion people in this world, and only 750 qualified to play in the best hockey league in this world. At 7 or 8 figures per annum. Specifically, I’m having a bit of a problem with anyone being labelled as out and out trash. The play might be trash. The human being, not so much. Referencing anybody as trash within that context says more about the poster than the player. So we’re back to mindless criticism and thoughtful critique.

    And one more thing while I’m at it. “The quality of mercy is not strained…yada, yada.”

    That said, OP and I would get along like oil and water. He’s into routine. I hate it like the plaque .He’s a shyster by trade, and I’m a rebellious rocknrolla by nature.

    If he were sitting at the front of the class, I’d be bouncing erasers off the back of his head from the back of class. Thing is, he knows the difference between critique and criticism. So kudos for that.

  94. slopitch says:

    ArmchairGM:
    If I were a GM in this league, I’d be on the phone rfn to Chiarelli inquiring about JP. Is a 3rd round pick too much?

    I’m worried about this too. I also wonder if there is still a window to aim high (Panarin?). Oh to know the conversations available to Chai.

  95. pts2pndr says:

    McSorley33:
    Listen we have to give the Gravel kid a few games first….but:

    It sure seems to me that his ( Gravel’s )toolkit *far* surpasses Mr. Garrison.

    And he can skate😀

  96. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    LT, multiple single events during one game are, by definition, not single events.

    Thought it was a very good game to watch, both coaches hated it, and the Oilers should have locked down in the third.

    As soon as the commentator said, “Crosby being watched by Strome” I said to my mate “that’s because he’s dog tired” then Sid puts the moves on.

    As soon as Sid came over the boards, the closest player to the Oilers bench should have changed for McDavid or Nuge.

    McDavid was on the ice for the OT winner last night.

  97. GMB3 says:

    slopitch: I’m worried about this too. I also wonder if there is still a window to aim high (Panarin?). Oh to know the conversations available to Chai.

    Columbus GM passed on JP so I don’t think he would trade his best forward for hom

  98. dustrock says:

    Young Willis really made me think about Bouchard when he pointed out the TOI for all the other young d-men like Hedman and Doughty who played right away.

    They were playing like 24 minutes per night!

    Bouchard is at 7 minutes! Why play him at all?

  99. Richard S.S. says:

    Oiler have one of the worst Start of the Season Schedule that any team can ever have. They were totally unprepared to start the Season and it showed in Games One and Two. 0-2-0 They were supposed to beat NYR and they did, still not as ready as they should be. 1-2-0 They won the next two games in OT against top Teams. 3-2-0 They lose to another top Team, one they haven’t beaten in over three years, despite having one of their best games. 3-3-0 They lose to another top Team at 2:12 in OT, despite not playing well. 3-3-1 (7 pts in 7G)

    The Oilers last four Games this month are against top Teams. It’s suggested the Oilers should go 1-2-1. They might be better. Getting a point a Game verses these Teams is doing well. November has some easier games before playing their Pacific opponents.

    As long as the Oilers reach OT they will win a lot of games. Few Teams can matchup 3-on-3 with McDavid.

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Oiler Goal Share after 7 games (3-3-1)

    Even strength (5v5, 4v4, 3v3):
    McDavid On Ice 6-3 (67%)
    McDavid Off Ice 5-13 (28%)

    Special Teams (PP+shorties for – PK + shorties against):
    7-6 = Net+1

    Empty Net Situations:
    0-3

    Net Goal Differential -7

    Analysis: Drai playing like he can helps a lot

  101. Munny says:

    He’s as fast as snake’s tongue grease tied to a bolt of lightning.

    –Festus Haggen on Connor McDavid.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Finally got a chance to listen to McLellan’s presser from today (damn clients are starting to take over and interfere with my Oilers social mediaing….).

    Anyways, a couple of things the intrigued me.

    I think it was Terry Jones, asked about the PP and it being 5th in the league and part of McLellan’s response was referencing there being alot of “experts out there”, “experts” that don’t like the 5 left shots and “experts” that want Klef off PP1 and replaced with Bouchard. It was interesting to here him actually reference some of the general opinions of the fan-base and some of the MSM and blogging community but it had a clear “ya, maybe we, the coaches, are the experts and know a thing or two)” – was fairly arrogant to me.

    Also, when asked about Puljujarvi moving to the fourth line, his response started with “I didn’t think Jesse was playing very good” – normally he’s not so blunt with those types of answers and will talk about wanting to get Chiasson up the lineup or do something for a spark – rarely do I hear him flat out say he moved someone down the lineup because they weren’t playing well.

    Just some things that intrigued me a bit.

  103. New Improved Darkness says:

    Clearly, if Koskinen had spotted in on October 9 and October 14, Talbot would now be sufficiently rested.

    Because rest is watching someone else work.

    The way I see things: either the cavalry is coming (the schedule abates as rest of the club finds its groove) and then soon enough the over-usage problem solves itself, or the cavalry isn’t coming and then surely the story doesn’t end well, no matter what door you choose (exit TMac).

    After a long decade of darkness, we’ve all learned to circle around tinder-dry lightening rods like hungry vultures.

    Wake me up again in another week or so, after the first raindrop falls.

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jesse Puljujarvi will be a very good NHL player.

    It might not happen until he’s 24/25 like the Sedins, Mikko Koivu, etc.

    I don’t think that time line matches either the GM’s needs or the Head Coach’s needs.

    I think JP will blossom as a NHL player. His tools are unreal and his head isn’t as bad as people are saying.

    I don’t think JP will be an Oiler when he blossoms as a NHL player.

    Also,

    He made a real nice play on Drai’s 5v5 goal.

    He’s going to be a player.

  105. Munny says:

    There’s a case to be made for sending Boosh back to Junior and a case to be made for keeping him up. Both cases have valid points and without the benefit of 20-20 hindsight there’s no way to know which set of general rules will apply to the individual case of Bouchard. All we have is our own sets of values, equally individual, which determine which side of the fence we land on.

    As it is for most of the arguments here, really.

    #thenofungi

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Tmac coaches scared. He coaches not to lose

    That’s the best description of McLellan that I have read.

  107. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    yamfry:
    Not sure if anyone else listens, but the Overdrive show from TSN 1050 talked about McDavid’s minutes the other day and the host compared his usage to a star player in the NBA, where they obviously play a larger proportion of the game. Ray Ferraro, who was the guest at the time, made the point that McDavid economizes his effort on each shift very well due to his superior skating. What are other folks’ thoughts about this? I figure 28 min per game isn’t sustainable, but maybe 23-24 min is.

    I think McDavid is going to re-set the rules on how much an elite player can play (goalies excluded)

    I think teams will move towards using 3 lines and have their 4th line populated by specialists (PK mostly)

    Even dinosaurs like Tmac have made the morning skate optional, players are in incredible shape compared to even 5 years ago and head coaches will realize they can play their best a lot.

  108. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    fishman:
    Enjoyed last nights game. Oilers showed they do have some offensive punch beyond Conner! This roster however, is proving to be deficient. Chia’s bets on Garrison, Brodziak and Kassian (contract) have put TMac in a position where he has to overplay his big guns (add in the sheltering of Bouchard). Aside from Conner and Nuge top 4 d playing too many minutes. You might get away with this for a while but guessing there will be a price to be paid at some point. Fatigue may lead to more injuries, poor play etc.

    TMac under big pressure to win combined with a GM who has made some poor bets on supporting cast (do like Reider and Chaisson though). What could go wrong????

    Hopefully Drai is out of his mini slump in play.

    Good post.

    I think 97 can play 23 min a night in a walk though.

    PP minutes aren’t too tough on the body.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    If the Oilers don’t send him down to London soon, he is not going to get enough games in to be ready to maximize the World Junior Championships from a development perspective.

    Please explain – I don’t get this statement.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    There’s a case to be made for sending Boosh back to Junior and a case to be made for keeping him up. Both cases have valid points and without the benefit of 20-20 hindsight there’s no way to know which set of general rules will apply to the individual case of Bouchard.All we have is our own sets of values, equally individual, which determine which side of the fence we land on.

    As it is for most of the arguments here, really.

    #thenofungi

    What is the case for keeping him up?

  111. Richard S.S. says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Remember that the Media and the Fanbase are considered the Peanut Gallery if being polite and something a lot fouler if not being polite..

  112. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Please explain – I don’t get this statement.

    A Bouchard who has hardly played for two and a half months is not really going to be ready for the World Junior Championships, to maximize that opportunity.

  113. Richard S.S. says:

    When you consider how much total energy is regularly available in anyone’s body, Why skate, etc. earlier, even if optional? Save it all for the Game. The best players could easily play more minutes.

  114. VOR says:

    godot10: A Bouchard who has hardly played for two and a half months is not really going to be ready for the World Junior Championships, to maximize that opportunity.

    So 12:35 a game in the toughest league on Earth isn’t adequate preparation to play in World Junior Championships? And what opportunity is it Evan Bouchard is preparing for exactly?

  115. Bondo11 says:

    Oilin4:
    Everyone’s been saying it for years, but man does a real 2 RHD solve problems for this team. Moves Russel and Benning to a third pair, sends Bouchard down, and allows Gravel/Garrison to compete for 7D, first AHL call-up spot.

    Woodguy asked on twitter a week or so ago if you trade PoolParty for a plug and play at RHD with a good contract and term. I hated the idea at the time, but PoolParty is close to put up or ship out time, and it may be time to maximize the asset. Getting buried in the lineup for every mistake is not good for development and TMac has a horrible history with prospects.

    I agreed with WG’s proposal at the time. I see potential in JP, but I don’t believe that the Oiler’s are the team to allow JP to flourish in Edmonton, at least not with the current head coach.
    The question is then – how long do you wait for Jesse to develop if you’re Chia, with your job on the line this year?
    Do you look to move Jesse + (Kassian or Caggulia) for Pesce? He’s a 23yr old who’d fit into the 2RD slot and force Russell to 3LD. He has 6yrs left on his contract @ $4.025MM per yr.

    I believe it would be a win-win for both teams. Jesse should flourish in Carolina with fellow-fin, Aho.

    Pesce would solidify the 2nd pairing and improve the defense as a whole, evening out the minutes on all three pairings. Lowering the HDSC would be huge for Talbot.

    Would Carolina do this deal or am I dreaming in technicolor?

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: A Bouchard who has hardly played for two and a half months is not really going to be ready for the World Junior Championships, to maximize that opportunity.

    The World Juniors is two-months away.

    Not to mention that it didn’t seem to effect Alex P. who played 9 games from the beginning of the season until the World Juniors and then had 12P in 6G at the tournament before finally being re-assigned to the OHL.

    At this point, yes, he’ll need to be sent down soon as he’s already played 6 games. I was hoping the 9 games could be stretched over a good 6-8 weeks before he was sent back to the OHL but injuries have taken that option away.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    So far tonight, no points (or shots) from Maksimov, but he has received a 5 min fighting major.

  118. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    Analysis: Drai playing like he can helps a lot

    – You’ve had many posts with figures on how he performs on some measures with four other skaters on the ice and have concluded that his play is not very good for someone being paid $8.5MM to be the 2C. Maybe I read it wrong?

    – Or do you think he is an elite player when he plays well, despite those figures you’ve used, or at least trending towards an elite player?

    – I’ve had you pegged as “Drai is over-paid, and not very effective without CmD, based on a list of variables over a large sample size,” And your not convinced he’s going to be good

    – I have Drai pegged as a point per game elite player for the last two years, who is on pace for his best year ever, and as the team improves he will be part of a devestating 2C combo with CmD

  119. franksterra says:

    Bondo11,

    I suspect it would more like JP and one of Bear, Jones, or Lagesson for Pesce and a pick.

  120. hunter1909 says:

    VOR: So 12:35 a game in the toughest league on Earth isn’t adequate preparation to play in World Junior Championships? And what opportunity is it Evan Bouchard is preparing for exactly?

    LOL

  121. --hudson-- says:

    franksterra:
    Bondo11,

    I suspect it would more like JP and one of Bear, Jones, or Lagesson for Pesce and a pick.

    If they don’t accept those terms, we threaten to sign Skyler Brind’Amour and have him play for McLennan.

  122. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Am I bad person if I’m hoping Talbot doesn’t kill it this year so they are not tempted to go long and expensive with him?

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: OIlers fans:

    “Put the prospect in and let him play.”
    (2 years later)
    “This player sucks. He has no idea what he is doing”
    “oh look a new prospect”
    “Put the prospect in and let him play”
    …..

    There is no such thing as accelerating development.Each player will develop at his own time.This is not a development league.Unless the player is clearly ready they need to be sent to lower leagues

    Truth

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: This team gave up very high danger scoring chances left and right.Tire fire D was back on display.I cant believe how many people are blaming Talbot.Look around you.All these “elite” goalies falling apart because of chest protectors.Even good goalies have weaker games

    Double truth Ruth

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    As Per Reid Wilkins:

    Benning says he had his bell rung in hit with Backes last week.Had concussion-like symptoms. Says he’s feeling good.

    Apparently this was “concussion-like symptoms” but not a concussion – not sure I believe that….

    Especially after Hall smoked him in the head.

    He’s had concussion problems before.

    That young man might not want to play pro hockey much longer if he wants to be an old man.

  126. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’ll know the Oilers have arrived as an astute organization when they take a player like JP and let him develop at his own pace. Doesn’t matter if he arrives in three months or three years. Don’t trade him. I don’t care if he’s in the minors or the fourth line. Just don’t trade him. The Oiler brass have to deal with a lot of outside noise and the pressure to make something happen is immense. I don’t care and they shouldn’t either. Just don’t trade him.

  127. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Am I bad person if I’m hoping Talbot doesn’t kill it this year so they are not tempted to go long and expensive with him?

    If he does kill it this year, having a goalie that was Vezina calibre 2 of the last 3 years would be a good guy to have around though right?

  128. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Oilin4:
    Everyone’s been saying it for years, but man does a real 2 RHD solve problems for this team. Moves Russel and Benning to a third pair, sends Bouchard down, and allows Gravel/Garrison to compete for 7D, first AHL call-up spot.

    Woodguy asked on twitter a week or so ago if you trade PoolParty for a plug and play at RHD with a good contract and term. I hated the idea at the time, but PoolParty is close to put up or ship out time, and it may be time to maximize the asset. Getting buried in the lineup for every mistake is not good for development and TMac has a horrible history with prospects.

    To be specific I mentioned JP for Pesce who is top pair quality and signed for 5 years after this one for $4MM

  129. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: What is the case for keeping him up?

    Woosh.

  130. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Am I bad person if I’m hoping Talbot doesn’t kill it this year so they are not tempted to go long and expensive with him?

    It’s a concern.

  131. Bank Shot says:

    Oilers currently sit in 23rd in goals against per game.

    Do you as a fan think that’s a fair place for them to be given the team’s defensive ability?

    If you believe that Talbot has been below average, where do you think the Oiler’s should be in goals against per game if they had an average starter?

    Do you think the Oilers are a 15th place defensive team in terms of skaters? Top ten? Bottom ten?

    Curious to see where we as individuals and as a group would rank the Oilers in terms of goal prevention if we assume the Oilers will get league average starter goaltending for the rest of the season.

  132. Richard S.S. says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Yes.

  133. Sierra says:

    ArmchairGM:
    If I were a GM in this league, I’d be on the phone rfn to Chiarelli inquiring about JP. Is a 3rd round pick too much?

    Why would Chiarelli be the least bit interested in trading JP for a draft pick? Isn’t the Oilers problem not enough NHL wingers?

  134. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side: Player development is not a “1 size fits all” model. And the data available only shows the results of 1 chosen development path.It’s hard to argue that an alternative development path would be better for a player when you only have 1 dataset to work with.

    The “Oilers can’t develop players” mantra is a strange myth.

    Oilers haven’t had a problem developing players, imo.They seem to have a problem with not recognizing the talent they have and sending them off to other organizations for next to nothing before they reap the benefits. Or, their scouting staff struggled with picking talent.They do have their misses, but so does every organization and even then, is development to blame? Or was it on the player?

    Darnell Nurse, Klefbom and Petry seem to be doing well after being drafted and developed by the Oilers.Bear and Jones look like they are on track.Justin Schultz you could argue was a failure in development, but imo, the GM failed Schultz by not getting better defenseman to shelter Schultz and allow him to grow.

    People act like every high level prospect the Oilers get is rushed and ruined but they aren’t.

    So yes, I would say the Oilers do know something more than you or us, about player development.

    The one size fits all development model is TOI.

    Play. Play. Play.

    If EDM keeps Bouchard here for October and sends him down its not a big deal to his development.

    If they keep him past that and keep playing him 7min a night it’s a great big deal.

    I don’t expect them to keep him.

    If Benning or Bear were good to go he might be gone already.

  135. Richard Roma says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Finally got a chance to listen to McLellan’s presser from today (damn clients are starting to take over and interfere with my Oilers social mediaing….).

    Anyways, a couple of things the intrigued me.

    I think it was Terry Jones, asked about the PP and it being 5th in the league and part of McLellan’s response was referencing there being alot of “experts out there”, “experts” that don’t like the 5 left shots and “experts” that want Klef off PP1 and replaced with Bouchard. It was interesting to here him actually reference some of the general opinions of the fan-base and some of the MSM and blogging community but it had a clear “ya, maybe we, the coaches, are the experts and know a thing or two)” – was fairly arrogant to me.

    Also, when asked about Puljujarvi moving to the fourth line, his response started with “I didn’t think Jesse was playing very good” – normally he’s not so blunt with those types of answers and will talk about wanting to get Chiasson up the lineup or do something for a spark – rarely do I hear him flat out say he moved someone down the lineup because they weren’t playing well.

    Just some things that intrigued me a bit.

    Hmm.

    Do you think he reads this blog?

  136. flyfish1168 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Am I bad person if I’m hoping Talbot doesn’t kill it this year so they are not tempted to go long and expensive with him?

    I’m a bad person along with you. I don’t have faith in Talbot as our goalie during Mcdavid years.

  137. Wilde says:

    Richard Roma: Hmm.

    Do you think he reads this blog?

    Wading in here, I think he was referring to Dellow among others

    https://theathletic.com/536636/2018/09/20/dellow-is-connor-mcdavid-good-enough-to-make-a-power-play-with-five-left-shots-work/

    I believe there was some overlap between their time with the Oilers, I’ve seen Dellow make reference to McLellan before, something like “Todd McLellan believes in shot volume on the PP”.

    If I’m right and they did work for the Oilers at the same time, they might not have gotten along.

  138. VOR says:

    As a coach I am always a bit conflicted when I am critiquing another coach.

    If TMac came to one of my practices and criticized my Hammer throw coaching I might not take it well. I have spent a life time earning the right to coach at an elite level. I have to say I would be tempted to have one of my athletes stick him head first into a garbage can and roll him down a long hill into a sewage lagoon.

    On the other hand you can’t get better if you don’t listen to your critics with an open mind. I don’t think you need to have thrown the Hammer or coached it to have something valuable to say about the process. A random stranger added 10 meters to my own personal best in the Hammer by suggesting my gaze management left much to be desired.

    So I like to think if TMac took the time to critique my coaching I’d hear him out and treat his suggestions with respect. But the reality is he would probably end up in the sewage lagoon.

  139. Richard Roma says:

    Bank Shot:
    Oilers currently sit in 23rd in goals against per game.

    Do you as a fan think that’s a fair place for them to be given the team’s defensive ability?

    If you believe that Talbot has been below average, where do you think the Oiler’s should be in goals against per game if they had an average starter?

    Do you think the Oilers are a 15th place defensive team in terms of skaters? Top ten? Bottom ten?

    Curious to see where we as individuals and as a group would rank the Oilers in terms of goal prevention if we assume the Oilers will get league average starter goaltending for the rest of the season.

    The Oilers are 9th in fenwick against per sixty after playing a tough schedule.

    – 12 HD Corsi against /60
    – 9th FA/60
    – 14 HD SV%
    – 23rd 5v5 SV%
    – 22nd pk sv%
    – 31 PP SV%

    Goalering is not so good.

  140. Bondo11 says:

    franksterra:
    Bondo11,

    I suspect it would more like JP and one of Bear, Jones, or Lagesson for Pesce and a pick.

    Chia should walk away if that’s the ask.

    I’d include Kassian to rid ourselves of some salary. We have replacements in Chaisson & Caggulia.

  141. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – You’ve had many posts with figures on how he performs on some measures with four other skaters on the ice and have concluded that his play is not very good for someone being paid $8.5MM to be the 2C. Maybe I read it wrong?

    I rarely mention is salary and then it’s only to highlight Pete paying a premium for everything.

    Your memory usually paints me in the worst light possible.

    This is no exception.


    – Or do you think he is an elite player when he plays well, despite those figures you’ve used, or at least trending towards an elite player?

    I am on record saying he’s very good offensively and if he tried as hard without the puck as he does with it he would probably get over 50% GF as a center.

    To date he hasn’t been close.


    – I’ve had you pegged as “Drai is over-paid, and not very effective without CmD, based on a list of variables over a large sample size,” And your not convinced he’s going to be good

    That you attribute things to me that I don’t say is SOP.

    You do that to everyone, not just me.

    If you actually quoted what someone said when you shit talked them and argued their points instead of what your memory tells you you’d have more respect around here because your hockey talk isn’t bad.

    But you don’t


    – I have Drai pegged as a point per game elite player for the last two years, who is on pace for his best year ever, and as the team improves he will be part of a devestating 2C combo with CmD

    McDavid’s 5v5 GF% is better away from 29 than with him since the 16/17 season.

    Devestating combo 3v3 maybe. Works ok 5v4 is reasonable. 5v5 all the results of all the goals in 2+ years tell a different story than devestating combo though.

    See this for the details: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1053375372513824768?s=19

  142. VOR says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The one size fits all development model is TOI.

    Play. Play. Play.

    If EDM keeps Bouchard here for October and sends him down its not a big deal to his development.

    If they keep him past that and keep playing him 7min a night it’s a great big deal.

    I don’t expect them to keep him.

    If Benning or Bear were good to go he might be gone already.

    NHL.com says in Bouchard’s six games he has averaged 12 minutes and 35 seconds per game, most of it at even strength. Is that enough playing time to warrant keeping him up? How much does he need to play?

  143. Dustylegnd says:

    flyfish1168: I’m a bad person along with you. I don’t have faith in Talbot as our goalie during Mcdavid years.

    Based on past performance I don’t think we need to worry about Talbot out performing any expectations or securing a lavish long term contract….but then again he is up against Chia….so who knows

    The next question is this….if not Talbot then who??

    Our player development model is a train wreck pure and simple….is Pool a bi product of this or did the Oil draft the wrong player….

    If Chia is on such an expedited time line why did he not draft the most NHL ready player of them all in Tkachuk????….he represents everything the Oil don’t have…

    Woodguy, question WOWY’s……is it accurate that it really doesn’t matter who conner has as line mates he will get his points and so will those playing with him?……

    If the above is true….does Leon’s pp/g improve with anyone other than McDavid and if so who is it and why not put him with Leon to create secondary scoring

    The talent on our Defence is horrific…..if we decided Garrison was the best available option on D….how is it we believed that our D would be anything other than god awful….is this not the expected outcome?

    If we believed that Brodziak was an answer how did we expect our 4th line would be anything other than awful?????

  144. giddy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Especially after Hall smoked him in the head.

    He’s had concussion problems before.

    That young man might not want to play pro hockey much longer if he wants to be an old man.

    This is my concern as well. Benning was trending fantastically till he got rocked about 40 games in, and never really was the same ever after.

    My parents knew his parents from awhile back. Before he went to MA for college hockey, there were concussion concerns. Frightening stuff for him.

  145. Richard Roma says:

    Wilde: Wading in here, I think he was referring to Dellow among others

    https://theathletic.com/536636/2018/09/20/dellow-is-connor-mcdavid-good-enough-to-make-a-power-play-with-five-left-shots-work/

    I believe there was some overlap between their time with the Oilers, I’ve seen Dellow make reference to McLellan before, something like “Todd McLellan believes in shot volume on the PP”.

    If I’m right and they did work for the Oilers at the same time, they might not have gotten along.

    Thanks, that’s right about the Dellow article.

    That shot volume quote is a Lowetide staple at this blog. Lt himself uses it.

    Once Eakins was fired, Dellow’s role seemed to be reduced until they didn’t renew his contract.

  146. Rebillled says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I don’t think you have to worry about Talbot killing it this year.

    The Oilers and last years Talbot are going to kill Talbot this year.

    Considering how he’s looked to us, how bad is Koskinen if they’re terrified to play him?

    Must be pretty pretty…

  147. Bondo11 says:

    Bank Shot:
    Oilers currently sit in 23rd in goals against per game.

    Do you as a fan think that’s a fair place for them to be given the team’s defensive ability?

    If you believe that Talbot has been below average, where do you think the Oiler’s should be in goals against per game if they had an average starter?

    Do you think the Oilers are a 15th place defensive team in terms of skaters? Top ten? Bottom ten?

    Curious to see where we as individuals and as a group would rank the Oilers in terms of goal prevention if we assume the Oilers will get league average starter goaltending for the rest of the season.

    We’re a bottom 1/3rd defensive team with league average goaltending and current D-core.

    A middle 1/3rd team with above average goaltending and upgrade to 2RD.

    Top 1/3rd defensive team? Not with current GM & HC.

  148. godot10 says:

    VOR: NHL.com says in Bouchard’s six games he has averaged 12 minutes and 35 seconds per game, most of it at even strength. Is that enough playing time to warrant keeping him up? How much does he need to play?

    Top 4, like Heiskanen.

  149. VOR says:

    godot10: Top 4, like Heiskanen.

    What evidence do you have he needs to play that much?

  150. godot10 says:

    VOR: What evidence do you have he needs to play that much?

    Historical precedence.

    There is nothing to suggest that Evan Bouchard is an outlier,

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m looking forward to Safin getting some traction with his new team.

    As per Scott McIntosh who reports for the mooseheads:

    Ostap Safin still in the injured player jersey but looking like he’s closing in on a return. More day to day than week to week at this point.

  152. leadfarmer says:

    VOR: What evidence do you have he needs to play that much?

    The 99% of D drafted outside of top 5 evidence that 18 yo D are not ready to play in NHL.
    If we are playing 6 D I would also think that #6 would be a regular contributor and not playing 4th line winger ice time
    The NHL is not a development league

  153. VOR says:

    godot10: Historical precedence.

    There is nothing to suggest that Evan Bouchard is an outlier,

    What research? What data set? Collected how? Analyzed how? Peer reviewed how? Published in what reputable journal? Links would be good.

    I will ask again what evidence?

    And where is your analysis proving their is no evidence Evan Bouchard is an outlier? I really want to know all about the tools one would use to show a player is an outlier, never mind that he is not an outlier.

  154. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bank Shot:
    Oilers currently sit in 23rd in goals against per game.

    Do you as a fan think that’s a fair place for them to be given the team’s defensive ability?

    If you believe that Talbot has been below average, where do you think the Oiler’s should be in goals against per game if they had an average starter?

    Do you think the Oilers are a 15th place defensive team in terms of skaters? Top ten? Bottom ten?

    Curious to see where we as individuals and as a group would rank the Oilers in terms of goal prevention if we assume the Oilers will get league average starter goaltending for the rest of the season.

    I don’t think our defence is world class, but by my eye the top four looks much improved. They move the puck better, they transition better and they defend better. Still miles to go though. Sure, our defence was bad last night, but Pittsburgh’s was worse. Murray simply played better than Talbot and that’s why they won. Same thing with Soros the other night. Good goalies will steal a win for their team. When was the last time Talbot did that? I can only l remember one game last year, against the Islanders, where Talbot stood on his head and won the game. Has Talbot been a positive difference maker in any game this year? Not sure. He’s been the second best goalie most games this year.

  155. leadfarmer says:

    Richard Roma: The Oilers are 9th in fenwick against per sixty after playing a tough schedule.

    – 12 HD Corsi against /60
    – 9th FA/60
    – 14 HD SV%
    – 23rd5v5 SV%
    – 22nd pk sv%
    – 31 PP SV%

    Goalering is not so good.

    Goaltending has been ok. Defense has been poor except for a couple of games. This team gives up a lot of very high danger scoring chances. Two games they tied up sticks and played well. Otherwise giving a lot of very high danger chances (high danger chances but the goalie is not able to be set for the shot, aka the creme de la creme of scoring chances)

  156. VOR says:

    leadfarmer: The 99% of D drafted outside of top 5 evidence that 18 yo D are not ready to play in NHL.
    If we are playing 6 D I would also think that #6 would be a regular contributor and not playing 4th line winger ice time
    The NHL is not a development league

    12:35 is not 4th line wing minutes. That is what the NHL says Evan Bouchard is averaging. How big is the sample size of Dtaken outside the top 5 playing more than 10 minutes a game at 18 years old?

  157. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard Roma: Hmm.

    Do you think he reads this blog?

    I doubt the coach does but I don’t doubt that various players do.

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    VOR: NHL.com says in Bouchard’s six games he has averaged 12 minutes and 35 seconds per game, most of it at even strength. Is that enough playing time to warrant keeping him up? How much does he need to play?

    That ice time isn’t reflective of his current deployment – it was been much lower in recent games.

    Not to mention that his effectiveness doesn’t warrant keeping him in isolation let alone when you factor in the risks that go with it (in particular risking losing expansion draft exemption)

  159. leadfarmer says:

    VOR: 12:35 is not 4th line wing minutes. That is what the NHL says Evan Bouchard is averaging. How big is the sample size of Dtaken outside the top 5 playing more than 10 minutes a game at 18 years old?

    But it’s not 12 min even strength time. It’s 11 min of sheltered ev time. And dropping fast. 8:37 last game including pp time.
    He’s not helping you win.
    If a rookie is not helping you win with butter soft minutes he is not ready.
    The NHL is not a development league
    I don’t get why this is this hard to grasp

  160. leadfarmer says:

    VOR: 12:35 is not 4th line wing minutes. That is what the NHL says Evan Bouchard is averaging. How big is the sample size of Dtaken outside the top 5 playing more than 10 minutes a game at 18 years old?

    Also I believe you answered your own question. Because D is such a hard position to play, these guys universally benefit from additional development time.
    All of them

  161. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    And the only example of a player to make it is Chychrun who has been significantly injured in each of his seasons. Now injuries can happen anywhere but he may have benefited from easier competition

  162. Richard Roma says:

    Off topic, but Chiasson’s second goal looked like a fairly high skill play for a 13th forward.

    Not the sort of play you expect from a guy fighting to get on the roster.

  163. godot10 says:

    VOR: What research? What data set? Collected how? Analyzed how? Peer reviewed how? Published in what reputable journal? Links would be good.

    I will ask again what evidence?

    And where is your analysis proving their is no evidence Evan Bouchard is an outlier? I really want to know all about the tools one would use to show a player is an outlier, never mind that he is not an outlier.

    I’m not looking for an NHL job.

    It is a ridiculously safe bet/assumption to argue someone isn’t an outlier.

    Drew Doughty made the World Junior team And made an impact as a draft eligible.

    I am perfectly content to let events unfold and prove me right or wrong. Other people have posted data today and yesterday. Willis has an article in The Athletic,.

    I’m not trying to persuade you. I am just telling you my opinion, and what it is based on. Historical precedence and the extreme likelihood that Evan Bouchard is Not an outlier.

  164. Richard Roma says:

    leadfarmer: Also I believe you answered your own question. Because D is such a hard position to play, these guys universally benefit from additional development time.
    All of them

    How about a Kailer?

    He might benefit from more development time.

    Hopefully Rattie’s back soon.

  165. Richard Roma says:

    OriginalPouzar: I doubt the coach does but I don’t doubt that various players do.

    Some might even have forum handles… wait. You would actually need one to read this blog due to the caching issue.

  166. Richard Roma says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think our defence is world class, but by my eye the top four looks much improved. They move the puck better, they transition better and they defend better. Still miles to go though. Sure, our defence was bad last night, but Pittsburgh’s was worse. Murray simply played better than Talbot and that’s why they won.Same thing with Soros the other night. Good goalies will steal a win for their team. When was the last time Talbot did that? I can only l remember one game last year, against the Islanders, where Talbot stood on his head and won the game.Has Talbot been a positive difference maker in any game this year? Not sure. He’s been the second best goalie most games this year.

    Not a word out of place.

  167. leadfarmer says:

    VOR: What research? What data set? Collected how? Analyzed how? Peer reviewed how? Published in what reputable journal? Links would be good.

    I will ask again what evidence?

    And where is your analysis proving their is no evidence Evan Bouchard is an outlier? I really want to know all about the tools one would use to show a player is an outlier, never mind that he is not an outlier.

    What evidence do you have that the sun will rise tomorrow. Who published it? What journal? Who reviewed it?
    These are not outliers that we’re talking about. These are pink zebras. I know a guy that was betting Carter Hart was going to win the starter job out of camp. Doesn’t happen.
    What peer reviewed journal was this published in? None. Wasn’t peer reviewed either.
    So how do I know it doesn’t happen
    Because it doesn’t
    Because every goalie goes from CHL to ECHL if they are a good prospect and to AHL if they are a very good prospect. Because they have to.
    Only goalie that recently hasn’t was Carey Price and he still played 10 games that season in AHL before getting thrown out there to poor results
    So my lack of evidence actually has a lot of evidence.

    Now I’ll throw it your way. What evidence do you have that this deployment of Bouchard is beneficial?
    A whole lot less evidence than we have

  168. Bank Shot says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think our defence is world class, but by my eye the top four looks much improved. They move the puck better, they transition better and they defend better. Still miles to go though. Sure, our defence was bad last night, but Pittsburgh’s was worse. Murray simply played better than Talbot and that’s why they won.Same thing with Soros the other night. Good goalies will steal a win for their team. When was the last time Talbot did that? I can only l remember one game last year, against the Islanders, where Talbot stood on his head and won the game.Has Talbot been a positive difference maker in any game this year? Not sure. He’s been the second best goalie most games this year.

    Maybe we just judge our goalie more harshly than the opposition. If Talbot had conceded the goal that McDavid scored on Murray, fans would be pissed.

  169. Bank Shot says:

    Richard Roma: The Oilers are 9th in fenwick against per sixty after playing a tough schedule.

    – 12 HD Corsi against /60

    I strongly doubt the veracity of that stat if it says that the Oilers are the 12th best team in the league when it comes to surrendering high danger chances.

    I don’t think many hockey fans could watch the Oilers for five games and come away with the impression that they are a borderline top ten defensive team in the national hockey league.

  170. VOR says:

    leadfarmer: What evidence do you have that the sun will rise tomorrow.Who published it?What journal?Who reviewed it?
    These are not outliers that we’re talking about.These are pink zebras.I know a guy that was betting Carter Hart was going to win the starter job out of camp.Doesn’t happen.
    What peer reviewed journal was this published in? None.Wasn’t peer reviewed either.
    So how do I know it doesn’t happen
    Because it doesn’t
    Because every goalie goes from CHL to ECHL if they are a good prospect and to AHL if they are a very good prospect.Because they have to.
    Only goalie that recently hasn’t was Carey Price and he still played 10 games that season in AHL before getting thrown out there to poor results
    So my lack of evidence actually has a lot of evidence.

    Now I’ll throw it your way.What evidence do you have that this deployment of Bouchard is beneficial?
    A whole lot less evidence than we have

    In other words you are guessing.

  171. Richard Roma says:

    Bank Shot: I strongly doubt the veracity of that stat if it says that the Oilers are the 12th best team in the league when it comes to surrendering high danger chances.

    I don’t think many hockey fans could watch the Oilers for five games and come away with the impression that they are a borderline top ten defensive team in the national hockey league.

    Could be sample size.

    I won’t vouch for that stat myself, but you may have more confidence in it if I tell you that the Oilers were 27th by this stat last year.

  172. Pescador says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think our defence is world class, but by my eye the top four looks much improved. They move the puck better, they transition better and they defend better. Still miles to go though. Sure, our defence was bad last night, but Pittsburgh’s was worse. Murray simply played better than Talbot and that’s why they won.Same thing with Soros the other night. Good goalies will steal a win for their team. When was the last time Talbot did that? I can only l remember one game last year, against the Islanders, where Talbot stood on his head and won the game.Has Talbot been a positive difference maker in any game this year? Not sure. He’s been the second best goalie most games this year.

    Top 4 looks better because 77 & 6 (hopefully) are healthy.
    I am not anti-Nurse, but watching him closely this year at times has been discouraging.
    He was MIA on both Hornquist goals, pivotal moments in the game.
    Love it when he skates the puck & tries to create offense in the Ozone.
    25 has the tools to be an elite shutdown defender,
    doesn’t look like he has much interest in this.
    That’s what I see, anybody else?

  173. flea says:

    Pescador,

    D men in the NHL get paid for offence. I still think Nurse believes he will be an offensive d man in this league. It’s in his interest to try to get as many points as possible over the next two years.

    I think he’s a great #4D. Oilers made a good bet bridging him.

  174. Pescador says:

    Richard Roma:
    Off topic, but Chiasson’s second goal looked like a fairly high skill play for a 13th forward.

    Not the sort of play you expect from a guy fighting to get on the roster.

    Both Chaisson goals were beauties, he has skill but sadly lacks consistency
    I would say that Brodziak is fighting to be the 13 forward at the moment

  175. Pescador says:

    flea,

    Yep,
    probably safe to say Nurse & his agent discussed
    points = $$

  176. silasbengtsson says:

    Bank Shot,

    It’s worth noting the shots against per game seem to be up early-season and the Oil are one of relatively few teams to keep their total below 30 so far. Might have something to do with a stat tracking total scoring chances as opposed to scoring chances relative to overall shots.

  177. VOR says:

    As a scientist I like actual research and peer reviewed publication.

    Here is just one paper, albeit a seminal one, arguing each and every every player is unique in terms of their development (thus every player is an outlier the minute you try to impose a best practice development system) and will follow a unique path to sports expertise.

    Before you bother arguing the merits of this paper (and it has some flaws) know it is one of hundreds saying each athlete’s development is unique. There is, according to evidence presented in dozens of papers in numerous fields of human performance, no right way to develop an athlete or improve their sports expertise. Thus, obviously, there is no right way to develop a hockey player.

    That also isn’t to say their aren’t better and worse approaches to the problem.

    https://eprints.qut.edu.au/31787/1/c31787.pdf

    I am not saying any of you are wrong nor am I trying to change your minds. I am just saying there is a huge literature on the development of expertise and even specifically the development of sports expertise. I assume from the debate we just had some of you are unaware of this literature.

  178. leadfarmer says:

    Richard Roma: How about a Kailer?

    He might benefit from more development time.

    Hopefully Rattie’s back soon.

    I’m a big believer that to develop scorers they need to score.

  179. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Jesse Puljujarvi will be a very good NHL player.

    It might not happen until he’s 24/25 like the Sedins, Mikko Koivu, etc.

    I don’t think that time line matches either the GM’s needs or the Head Coach’s needs.

    I think JP will blossom as a NHL player.His tools are unreal and his head isn’t as bad as people are saying.

    I don’t think JP will be an Oiler when he blossoms as a NHL player.

    Also,

    He made a real nice play on Drai’s 5v5 goal.

    He’s going to be a player.

    I see an elite playmaking brain, pretty green technique, and a shot that can be great, but still with a wonky site and again a lack of technique getting set properly to shoot like the best do.

    His ability to disrupt opponent zone exits is something, he is really good at interfering with players with his skating and reach, and brain.

    I’d trade Yama first. Yama is likely going to be a very good NHL player, but JP’s tool kit is something else (I was going to say package but thought better around these parts:)).

    There is a risk that JP doesn’t put it together, but if he does he will be a force to be reckoned with in his prime, and will likely play well after it with his wheels. The mistakes he makes are so fixable I hope one of the coaches can convince him to do the basics well first, and add on as his game settles in.

    I’m not envious of having to decide such things in the given environment, but I doubt any pro sports team is a walk in the park. So many alphas and so much money.

  180. Bank Shot says:

    Richard Roma: Could be sample size.

    I won’t vouch for that stat myself, but you may have more confidence in it if I tell you that the Oilers were 27th by this stat last year.

    That same stat had the Stanley Cup winning Capitals at 28th.

    There is something wonky going on with High Danger Scoring Chances.

  181. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Sounds like Chiasson will be able to play tomorrow.

    I wasn’t able to listen live to the coach’s presser (damn clients) so am not sure if any updates were given on Drake or Benning.

    Would love to get Matty B. back to get Bouchard a few games watching from above.

    Are you sure Benning has been better than Bouchard? Others agree so I must be wrong but I just don’t see it.

  182. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    of course. If being right 99.9% of the time is guessing.
    just because something has not been published does not make it not true. A lot of the time it means no one has bothered looking at it. And a lot of published work is pure bullshit. Look at any medical journal 95% bullshit
    I’ve been a huge proponent of every prospect develops at their own pace. Huge!!!
    So let them develop at their own pace and in their own unique way. In a development league!!!
    Remember you are not the only one with a fancy degree. No need to be condescending. There’s lots of people smarter than me here and I’m more than ok admitting it

    Now I don’t have any peer reviewed publications that say eating Tide Pods is a bad idea, but I can “guess” that it probably is. Would it be better to have 100000 kids eat tide pods and 100000 to not eat them to compare. Well yes it would. But so would putting 1000 18 year old D in NHL and 1000 in CHL. But the sample is skewed so far to one injured guy

  183. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Pescador: Top 4 looks better because 77 & 6 (hopefully) are healthy.
    I am not anti-Nurse, but watching him closely this year at times has been discouraging.
    He was MIA on both Hornquist goals, pivotal moments in the game.
    Love it when he skates the puck & tries to create offense in the Ozone.
    25 has the tools to be an elite shutdown defender,doesn’t look like he has much interest in this.
    That’s what I see, anybody else?

    He’ll be 24 this season, still young for a D, but he does seem to still hear the dreaded dog whistle.

    I think it’s a bit late for him to become a high offense D, but that is ok. A guy that can out up 30-40 points, is a physical specimen with league top skating, mean and tough, that’s a Norris type D.

    The type that wins Cups. All of the established players get paid, forget the money and learn to dominate.

  184. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bank Shot: Maybe we just judge our goalie more harshly than the opposition. If Talbot had conceded the goal that McDavid scored on Murray, fans would be pissed.

    From what I understand the HD scoring chances last night were 17-10 in favour of the Oil. Yet Talbot allowed 6 goals and Murray 5. But it’s not even that. Talbot has a knack for knocking back momentum. The Oil were killing it in the second period and we managed to grab the lead, but Talbot allowed two goals on three shots, I believe, to even it up for the Pens. Having said all this and having crapped on Talbot all day, I do think he’s played better this year than last year.

  185. godot10 says:

    VOR: In other words you are guessing.

    Educated common sense guess, like not drawing another card at 20 at blackjack.

  186. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice: Are you sure Benning has been better than Bouchard? Others agree so I must be wrong but I just don’t see it.

    Benning hasn’t had a chance to play 3rd pairing this year. He started as 2RD and when moved back to 3RD he was injured early. Benning has an NHL track record as an effective 3RD that is “better” than what a just turned 19 year old Bouchard has been able to.

  187. Bag of Pucks says:

    Seems a mite testy here despite the many positives:

    Record is decent despite the brutal schedule.
    Last night aside, the 2nd pairing without Sekera is treading water.
    Many of the disappointments from last year are rebounding early (Lucic, Larrson, Klefbom, Talbot, Strome).
    PP much improved.
    Talbot might have a solid year if MacLellan ever figures out goalie rotation basics.
    Leon is a Panzer. Connor a cruise missile.
    JP is a 5 tool wild horse. Lest we forget, Mark Messier was the exact same thing at that age.
    Marody, Yamo and Bouchard all oozing talent and potential.

    Once they finally get around to firing this HC, the sky’s the limit.

  188. Bag of Pucks says:

    If I’m Chiarelli, I pull out those McFarlane uni’s for throwback night against the Caps.

    Connor with that crest? Are you kidding me? He’d look like a stealth bomber in that gear. Guaranteed hat trick night.

  189. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Talbot is not an elite goalie. Good games, middling games, some stinkers. To me his glove is average, and he doesn’t protect the top of the net well.

    When he’s on he’s hard to beat in close and covers the bottom of the net well, hard to score on him in scrums.

    It’s a tough spot for McLellan. Koskinen needs a chance to settle in to game action, but this is likely not the time given the temperature and sched.

    If we don’t see Kosk getting starts afterl the tough stretch, the proof is in the pudding. Most players can’t walk in and dominate, they need to build confidence. Coaching at it’s highest level.

  190. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bag of Pucks: Mark Messier was the exact same thing at that age.

    Perfect

  191. Richard Roma says:

    Bank Shot: That same stat had the Stanley Cup winning Capitals at 28th.

    There is somethingwonky going on with High Danger Scoring Chances.

    Well, rule number one is to never use one stat in isolation.

    These HD stats use shot location as a proxy for HD chances, so they’re not entirely accurate.

    Also, I would imagine there’s a fair amount of human error recording shot location.

  192. VOR says:

    godot10: Educated common sense guess, like not drawinganother card at 20 at blackjack.

    The problem is your common sense guess, unlike not drawing another card at 20, has utterly unknown and unknowable odds. Thus it is, as I said, just a guess. A blind stab in the dark guess.

    Given a huge body of research says no two athletes develop sports expertise in the same way. Thus any prediction about the best path for a specific athlete is far more likely to be wrong than right.

  193. Glovjuice says:

    leadfarmer: What evidence do you have that the sun will rise tomorrow.Who published it?What journal?Who reviewed it?
    These are not outliers that we’re talking about.These are pink zebras.I know a guy that was betting Carter Hart was going to win the starter job out of camp.Doesn’t happen.
    What peer reviewed journal was this published in? None.Wasn’t peer reviewed either.
    So how do I know it doesn’t happen
    Because it doesn’t
    Because every goalie goes from CHL to ECHL if they are a good prospect and to AHL if they are a very good prospect.Because they have to.
    Only goalie that recently hasn’t was Carey Price and he still played 10 games that season in AHL before getting thrown out there to poor results
    So my lack of evidence actually has a lot of evidence.

    Now I’ll throw it your way.What evidence do you have that this deployment of Bouchard is beneficial?
    A whole lot less evidence than we have

    finally.

  194. VOR says:

    leadfarmer:
    VOR,

    of course.If being right 99.9% of the time is guessing.
    just because something has not been published does not make it not true.A lot of the time it means no one has bothered looking at it.And a lot of published work is pure bullshit.Look at any medical journal 95% bullshit
    I’ve been a huge proponent of every prospect develops at their own pace.Huge!!!
    So let them develop at their own pace and in their own unique way.In a development league!!!
    Remember you are not the only one with a fancy degree.No need to be condescending.There’s lots of people smarter than me here and I’m more than ok admitting it

    Now I don’t have any peer reviewed publications that say eating Tide Pods is a bad idea, but I can “guess” that it probably is.Would it be better to have 100000 kids eat tide pods and 100000 to not eat them to compare.Well yes it would.But so would putting 1000 18 year old D in NHL and 1000 in CHL.But the sample is skewed so far to one injured guy

    Please provide any evidence you have that 95% of any medical journal is bullshit. I’d love to see it.

    While you are at it please explain how I was condescending.

    I merely said 1. you are guessing. 2. Here is evidence you are probably guessing incorrectly. 3. that some posters seem unaware there is a large amount of published scholarship on developing sports expertise. How is that being condescending?

  195. Glovjuice says:

    VOR:
    As a scientist I like actual research and peer reviewed publication.

    Here is just one paper, albeit a seminal one, arguing each and every every player is unique in terms of their development (thus every player is an outlier the minute you try to impose a best practice development system) and will follow a unique path to sports expertise.

    Before you bother arguing the merits of this paper (and it has some flaws) know it is one of hundreds saying each athlete’s development is unique. There is, according to evidence presented in dozens of papers in numerous fields of human performance, no right way to develop an athlete or improve their sports expertise. Thus, obviously, there is no right way to develop a hockey player.

    That also isn’t to say their aren’t better and worse approaches to the problem.

    https://eprints.qut.edu.au/31787/1/c31787.pdf

    I am not saying any of you are wrong nor am I trying to change your minds. I am just saying there is a huge literature on the development of expertise and even specifically the development of sports expertise. I assume from the debate we just had some of you are unaware of this literature.

    Of course each player’s development is unique. Each player is unique.

  196. Glovjuice says:

    leadfarmer:
    VOR,

    of course.If being right 99.9% of the time is guessing.
    just because something has not been published does not make it not true.A lot of the time it means no one has bothered looking at it.And a lot of published work is pure bullshit.Look at any medical journal 95% bullshit
    I’ve been a huge proponent of every prospect develops at their own pace.Huge!!!
    So let them develop at their own pace and in their own unique way.In a development league!!!
    Remember you are not the only one with a fancy degree.No need to be condescending.There’s lots of people smarter than me here and I’m more than ok admitting it

    Now I don’t have any peer reviewed publications that say eating Tide Pods is a bad idea, but I can “guess” that it probably is.Would it be better to have 100000 kids eat tide pods and 100000 to not eat them to compare.Well yes it would.But so would putting 1000 18 year old D in NHL and 1000 in CHL.But the sample is skewed so far to one injured guy

    I have a Masters Degree in microbiology and can plainly see that Bouchard is better than Benning and Bear now. And, better by enough that he should stay.

  197. Glovjuice says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Seems a mite testy here despite the many positives:

    Record is decent despite the brutal schedule.
    Last night aside, the 2nd pairing without Sekera is treading water.
    Many of the disappointments from last year are rebounding early (Lucic, Larrson, Klefbom, Talbot, Strome).
    PP much improved.
    Talbot might have a solid year if MacLellan ever figures out goalie rotation basics.
    Leon is a Panzer. Connor a cruise missile.
    JP is a 5 tool wild horse. Lest we forget, Mark Messier was the exact same thing at that age.
    Marody, Yamo and Bouchard all oozing talent and potential.

    Once they finally get around to firing this HC, the sky’s the limit.

    Messier was not the same such thing at Jesse’s age. Jesse is not a future Hall of Famer; I can assure you of that.

  198. Lowetide says:

    Please be kind to each other. Thanks.

  199. VOR says:

    Glovjuice: condescending?

    And thus we can’t make any definitive statements about the best approach for any specific athlete’s development based on another athlete’s development. We can’t come up with a plan for Evan Bouchard based on how any other athlete did or did not develop.

    There is obviously an optimal path for Evan Bouchard’s development. But you have to know Evan Bouchard really, really well to know what it is. The Oilers are far better placed to know Bouchad and how to develop him than we are.

    That is not to say they have used that access to create an optimal development plan. Merely that they could have and should have.

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