Procurement Is No Ordinary Word

Since arriving as general manager, Peter Chiarelli has drafted 27 players, 12 of them (44 percent) blue. Edmonton’s head of procurement has also signed defenseman Joel Persson as a free agent. I wrote recently about the Oilers finally having enough depth to trade from strength (here) and the team seems to have enough bubbling under on left and right defense. That’s the strength. What is the area of weakness? Scoring forwards.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Best available offer is here!

  • New Lowetide: The past, present and future of the Andrej Sekera contract.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Elmer Benning on his 47 years as a scout (excellent article).
  • Jonathan Willis: After several failed attempts to fix their issues on the wings, it’s time for the Oilers to explore the trade market.
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid, a 50-goal season and chasing Phil Esposito’s magical 1970-71.
  • Lowetide: Oilers send Puljujarvi and Yamamoto to Bakersfield; recall Marody
  • Lowetide: Oilers trade options: Dealing from strength is finally a possibility.
  • Lowetide: What happens to the Oilers when Alex Chiasson’s hot streak ends?
  • Jonathan Willis: Under the circumstances, playing in the AHL affords Jesse Puljujarvi the best chance at career redemption.
  • Lowetide: A new day dawning for Oilers prospects in Bakersfield as increased usage means greater success.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: In depth: Embattled Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli defends his record, remains bullish on the future.
  • Lowetide: Future Oilers bubbling under in Bakersfield may get a look sooner rather than later.
  • Lowetide: Oscar Klefbom takes a step forward for the Edmonton Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Forty years later, remembering the forgotten trade that brought Wayne Gretzky to Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: Oilers reach a pressure point on defence and right wing.

CHIARELLI’S PICKS

2015

  • Connor McDavid—227 NHL games. Per 82gp: 35-67-102
  • Caleb Jones—69 AHL games, appears close to NHL-ready. Per 82 AHL: 5-26-31.
  • Ethan Bear—18 NHL games. Impressive passer, range of skills. Per 82 AHL: 11-27-38.
  • John Marino—Junior year at Harvard a challenge so far.  
  • Miroslav Svoboda—NSH prospect, he owns the ECHL (.931). 
  • Ziyat Paigin—No longer in organization, not moving the needle back home. 

Remember last year when we talked about prospects not developing in a straight line? Remember when I said Bear was having a great season but Jones might flip the script 12 months gone? It’s happened and now Jones would appear to be in the queue for recall and possibly a part of the Oilers’ future. Bear has had injury issues but there’s a player there in my opinion. Wonderful passer. If the goal is two players from each draft, who the hells cares they got McDavid! Seriously, you’d like to see both AHL blue emerge as NHL players. This was an historic draft, important to get as much as possible from it.

2016

  • Jesse Puljujarvi—104 NHL games. Per 82gp: 11-12-23
  • Tyler Benson—16 AHL games, impressive pro debut. 11, 3-9-12 so far. 
  • Markus Niemelainen—58 Sm-Liiga games. 16 minutes a night this season.
  • Matt Cairns—16 NCAA games. He is 6, 1-1-2 with Cornell, there’s a pulse. 
  • Filip Berglund—112 SHL games, he’s 16, 2-5-7 this year, 19:25 a night. Up arrows.
  • Dylan Wells—5 ECHL games, .874SP. No outstanding arrows for some time.
  • Graham McPhee—83 NCAA games, spiked offensively last year, quiet early this time.
  • Aapeli Rasanen—38 NCAA games, good checker, offense needs to emerge.
  • Vincent Desharnais—98 NCAA games, senior season underway. 

This is emerging as a strange and uneven draft, the final one without Keith Gretzky. Puljujarvi hasn’t emerged as a regular and his entry deal ends at the conclusion of the season, but there are all kinds of good arrows for the player. Benson is having a strong rookie pro season, Berglund has done everything in the SHL to show he’s worthy of a contract.

After that, it’s a mixed bag and we’ll see, Matt Cairns has shown some signs here early in the season. Both Boston College forwards (McPhee and Rasanen) have failed to launch this year, hopefully that turns around soon.

2017

  • Kailer Yamamoto—21 NHL games, needs to bring more offense. 
  • Stuart Skinner—6 ECHL games, .912SP. Appears slightly ahead of Wells. 
  • Dmitri Samorukov—147 OHL games. Seems to have taken a step back. 
  • Ostap Safin—69 QMJHL games. Injury early this year, on track now. 
  • Kirill Maksimov—198 OHL games, hot start this season, slowed lately. 
  • Skyler Brind’Amour—77 BCHL games, offensive spike in second BCHL season.
  • Phil Kemp—31 NCAA games. Sophomore college season just underway. 

Yamamoto scored his first NHL goal (a stunner, best since Eberle) but couldn’t deliver enough offensively to stay in the lineup. He’s in Bakersfield and will make his AHL debut this weekend. Skinner’s early pro results are positive, and junior scorers Safin and Maksimov are posting solid to excellent numbers (although the Maksimov cooling is a slight concern). It’s a big season for this draft.

2018

  • Evan Bouchard7 NHL games. He’s 3, 2-1-3 back in the OHL. An outstanding prospect.
  • Ryan McLeod—215 OHL games. He’s started his OHL season like a house on fire. 
  • Olivier Rodrigue—110 QMJHL games. He is playing well, .900SP so far. 
  • Michael Kesselring—27 USHL games. He has taken a step forward this year. 
  • Patrik Siikanen45 Jr. Sm-Liiga games. He’s up slightly in boxcars this season.

An NHL team needs to cash its first rounders every time and then grab at least one more player from each draft. Ryan McLeod and Olivier Rodrique are the strongest candidates for the second NHLer but Kesselring is a fascinating prospect.

Summary

If we use the traditional line in the sand (two players per draft season) Chiarelli’s Oilers should expect eight players from these drafts. Connor McDavid is the only player who has punched his ticket, so seven more should be expected. I’ll pick Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear, Jesse Puljujarvi, Tyler Benson, Kailer Yamamoto, Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod as the seven most likely to cash. Your mileage may vary.

FREE AGENTS

I’m not talking Andrej Sekera or Milan Lucic, but rather college or CHL free agents who would have been considered prospects on signing day. Here’s a quick look (I think it’s everyone) at the group.

  • Braden Christoffer—156 AHL games. He didn’t score enough in entry deal to take next step.
  • Jere Sallinen—53 AHL games. He was a capable AHL forward. 
  • Nick Ellis—56 AHL games. One fine AHL year, one subpar one, and then he retired. 
  • Drake Caggiula—141 NHL games. Won NHL job, kept it. Per 82gp: 15-11-26.
  • Patrick Russell—147 AHL games. Good two-way F and PK man. Offense strong this year.
  • Matt Benning—149 NHL games. Solid NHL blue when healthy. Per 82gp: 5-17-22.
  • Shane Starrett—5 AHL games. Off to a strong start (2, .917) this year. 
  • Joe Gambardella—67 AHL games. Increased offense this year, solid two-way forward.
  • Ryan Mantha—43 AHL games. A freak injury has his career in doubt. 
  • Ty Rattie—58 NHL games. He has impressed me in 23 NHL games. 
  • Brian Ferlin—7 NHL games. His injury was too severe to get back. 
  • Yohann Auvitu—58 NHL games. An underrated signing, he didn’t get a PP push. 
  • Cameron Hebig—11 AHL games. 6-6-12 so far, looks like a solid addition. 
  • Colin Larkin—16 AHL games. Looks like another Braden Christoffer. 
  • Joel Persson—67 SHL games. He’s posting impressive crooked numbers. Legit. 

Chiarelli has done good work here, with Caggiula, Benning and Rattie emerging as NHL players (I think Rattie is there, perhaps I’m jumping the gun). Guys like Gambardella, Hebig and Persson are matriculating, I believe his aggressiveness in this area was forced by the generally disappointing 2012 and 2013 drafts and the strange 2014 drafting.

SUMMARY

This exercise isn’t meant to give a pass or fail to the general manager, in procurement it’s best to wait five years after a draft meaning we’re 18 months away from getting the first report card. Rather, it’s designed to identify all available names (and we’ve missed some, like Cooper Marody and Hayden Hawkey) procured in an effort to improve the overall quality of the NHL roster since Chiarelli’s arrival.

It’s interesting to see so many goalie bets, suspect the organization is hoping one of these inexpensive bets turns out glorious. Skinner and Hawkey appear to have the best chance, although Rodrigue is playing well in a tough league for goaltenders.

On defense, Evan Bouchard is the new big hope (Chiarelli said the other day none of his NHL defensemen are exceptional passers) as he is already a plus passer and has great vision. There are probably a half dozen additional blue are legit NHL prospects, I think the team can deal from strength here any time now.

The key here is the cluster, the group of players we can safely place around Connor McDavid as sure things for the future. I believe the McDavid cluster should include the captain, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Evan Bouchard. If that’s the case, this team needs a goalie for the Stanley runs and more scoring on the wings plus a two-way forward or two who can help on the penalty kill.

Perhaps Tobias Rieder and Matt Benning will be added to that cluster in the days to come, there are things about them that suggest they could fit into areas of need. Even the glory Oilers had players who played complementary roles that were important. I think some of us have lost sight of that, and it’s important to value all players who help a team win. Penalty killing isn’t sexy but it sure sucks to lose games because the PK is no damned good.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We hit the airwaves at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Marshall Ferguson, TSN1150 Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats look strong enough to make the Grey Cup, we’ll chat about the team’s momentum.
  • Scott Rafferty, NBA.com. Golden State feud, 76ers loading up, Raptors hit a bump.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN1260. Core four under 24 and why McDavid flattens the universe.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

255 Responses to "Procurement Is No Ordinary Word"

« Older Comments
  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice: Not as good as the pre and post AM gym OP posts during my morning coffee, low sodium V8, homemade hemp heart pancake, and shredded wheat breakie at 6:50 AM every workday.

    Incorrect – I’m cutting now so training fasted – no pre-workout nutrition so no posting until after the gym at 5am and, no, shredded wheat – chicken and english muffin.

    Thanks.

  2. Glovjuice says:

    drglen:
    Glovjuice,

    Dude. ?

    Translation ? Which post? Oh, I’m not a dude.

  3. JimmyV1965 says:

    The Flames somehow lose to the Habs thanks to Mike Smith. Sets up a huge game Saturday. If we beat the Flames we overtake them in the standings. We’ll have the same amount of pts but a game in hand. It’s been a long time since the BOB actually meant something. Should be a war!!

  4. Paddy Morans Jockstrap says:

    Flyers might be getting desperate. If Talbot for Gudas is on the table you might have to think long and hard assuming the coaches and managers really believe in Kos. Best option is keeping both G but if Talbot gets you a big, mean 4/5 RH dman you have to consider it. Kos is such a unique guy and he’s still adjusting to nhl rinks. Got to say I like his size, athleticism, attitude and rebound control. Team seems comfortable in front of him as well.

  5. Pescador says:

    Glovjuice: Not as good as the pre and post AM gym OP posts during my morning coffee, low sodium V8, homemade hemp heart pancake, and shredded wheat breakie at 6:50 AM every workday.

    Man, you must be super regular
    Congratulations

  6. Wilde says:

    (I think you can still try Puljujarvi at centre)

    (Also whoever slandered Nino today has my contempt)

  7. Pescador says:

    Paddy Morans Jockstrap:
    Flyers might be getting desperate. If Talbot for Gudas is on the table you might have to think long and hard assuming the coaches and managers really believe in Kos. Best option is keeping both G but if Talbot gets you a big, mean 4/5 RH dman you have to consider it. Kos is such a unique guy and he’s still adjusting to nhl rinks. Got to say I like his size, athleticism, attitude and rebound control. Team seems comfortable in front of him as well.

    No hurry, Lets wait until the TD at least

  8. Pescador says:

    Wilde:
    (I think you can still try Puljujarvi at centre)

    (Also whoever slandered Nino today has my contempt)

    Why wouldn’t they at least try it?
    It’s the minors, perfect place for experimenting I say

  9. Pescador says:

    JimmyV1965:
    The Flames somehow lose to the Habs thanks to Mike Smith. Sets up a huge game Saturday. If we beat the Flames we overtake them in the standings. We’ll have the same amount of pts but a game in hand. It’s been a long time since the BOB actually meant something. Should be a war!!

    Nice night for the Oil,
    Flames lose
    Van lose, coming back down to earth
    SJ losing
    Ana is a tire fire
    LA is a dumpster fire with a hobo inside
    Playoff point cutoff prediction needs to be adjusted. 93?

    Also,
    Mike Smith is a gold seal stamp certified POS
    Fuck the Flames, they deserve each oth

  10. drglen says:

    Glovjuice,

    Sorry i didnt realize you guys had some kind of nutrition thing going on

  11. drglen says:

    Pescador,
    So. I take it you dont like tbe flames much and mike smith is not your favorite player?

  12. Side says:

    Woodguy v2.0: To be fair some of us declare Caggiula “not a NHLer” based on his previous 127 NHL games.

    Hasn’t changed my opinion.

    I hope he does as the coach likes to play him.

    That’s fair.

    But I think it’s also fair to say that the coaching seems to have improved and is making a difference this year, and an arbitrary 2 extra games played won’t change that observation.

  13. YKOil says:

    ArmchairGM: Well, I disagree. I think Lucic with 50% retained has some value to someone. I mean, Leo Komorov just got $3M x 4…

    Post the 2019-2020 signing bonus payment, Lucic counts $6 million against the cap but only $4 million in cash. PC would be well advised to trade Lucic at any time a trade comes available but if he does it after paying the SB in 2019-2020 he only has to retain $1 million a year to give a floor team a $6 million Cap hit on a $3 million salary.

    I believe a trade is doable, pending Lucic waiving the NMC, at any time but after July 1, 2019 it should happen fairly quickly and it shouldn’t cost the Oilers an arm and a leg to unload it.

    As for Talbot, having trouble trusting him nowadays. Don’t trust Koskinen yet. If offered an honest to goodness overpay, on a trade for Talbot, that brought back a needed player (so not a draft pick)… then I do it. Otherwise, no. Will be interesting to see if Ottawa keeps Anderson all year given their (lack of ) a lottery pick situation; normally Anderson would be long gone.

    Have faith in Sekera, not sure I want to see him back anytime soon this year.

    Strome is a player we HAVE to be able to upgrade on. RIGHT?

  14. Wilde says:

    To be honest, if VOR’s source is correct, I think Chiarelli should likely be dismissed.

    Not that he didn’t earn it before by putting the team up against the cap without the quality that usually goes with that, but if he rejected an offer to get out of it too, then he’s not the man for the job of maneuvering through this.

  15. ArmchairGM says:

    Wilde:

    (Also whoever slandered Nino today has my contempt)

    Hey! I only asked a question!

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pretty excited for the Condors’ game tonight – wish Marody was in the lineup as I’m not overly enthused about Currie centering Yamamoto and Puljujarvi but it’ll be up to the young wingers to push the offence on that line. Presumably they can do so in this league.

    I wonder who will center Hebig and Benson with Marody in the NHL – perhaps they move Joe G. to center and maybe move Malone between the rookies?

  17. Ryan says:

    Wilde:
    To be honest, if VOR’s source is correct, I think Chiarelli should likely be dismissed.

    Not that he didn’t earn it before by putting the team up against the cap without the quality that usually goes with that, but if he rejected an offer to get out of it too, then he’s not the man for the job of maneuvering through this.

    Remind me what were the parameters of this potential trade?

  18. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Pretty excited for the Condors’ game tonight – wish Marody was in the lineup as I’m not overly enthused about Currie centering Yamamoto and Puljujarvi but it’ll be up to the young wingers to push the offence on that line.Presumably they can do so in this league.

    I wonder who will center Hebig and Benson with Marody in the NHL – perhaps they move Joe G. to center and maybe move Malone between the rookies?

    Based on past tendencies, I’d guess

    Yamamoto – Currie – Puljujarvi

    Benson – Vesel – Hebig

    Gust – Malone – Gambardella

    Christoffer – Esposito – Polei

    With Callahan out.

    I remember Vesel centering those two at the beginning of the season (or some other variation of centring some of the skilled wingers) so it could be that.

    Also, Malone and Gambardella are very effective together while playing a game that I don’t really want the prospects playing, and they take dzone draws a ton.

    Currie centering the two first rounders isn’t super ideal, but he’s at least one of the better handlers and he tries to exit and enter with control more than the bottom half of the lineup, and he’s fairly efficient at it too according to my tracking. Also is one of the clear skill options in terms of shot/shot assists but that’s mostly because of the large drop-off after.

    This is part of the reason I’d try Puljujarvi at centre during this period. According to Finns I follow on Twitter he used to do it and he commands the middle of the ice pretty well, and as his instincts become better trained he’ll break up a ton of plays with his reach and by moving his feet.

    He seems to struggle with overly-static assignments like just sitting along the wall. It’s worth a shot, I think, and if it works out he’d be a killer piece on a dual-centre line for years on this club.

  19. Wilde says:

    Ryan: Remind me what were the parameters of this potential trade?

    Very (respectably) vague

    Just that big, bad money wasn’t coming back

  20. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    workaroundaccount: I’m gonna answer your question with a question. Is Talbot above replacement level?

    Talbot is almost exactly a NHL average starter this year.

    That’s quite a bit above replacement.

  21. frjohnk says:

    Wilde:
    To be honest, if VOR’s source is correct, I think Chiarelli should likely be dismissed.

    Not that he didn’t earn it before by putting the team up against the cap without the quality that usually goes with that, but if he rejected an offer to get out of it too, then he’s not the man for the job of maneuvering through this.

    I dont doubt VOR’s source. Maybe Lucic said no to the other team. Its also possible that the Oilers were hoping that Lucic was going to bounce back and wanted to keep him. They may have thought they were selling low in the summer.

  22. Wilde says:

    frjohnk: I dont doubt VOR’s source.Maybe Lucic said no to the other team.Its also possible that the Oilers were hoping that Lucic was going to bounce back and wanted to keep him.They may have thought they were selling low in the summer.

    Yeah, if they thought they incurring significant risk by selling low there, then the manager should be dismissed in my view.

    I could buy it considering Chiarelli’s whole “he’s bounced back, I knew he would” declaration of victory.

    It’s a lesson in why you don’t let a guy who’s late(r) in his career and set in his ways clean up his own mess.

    Amazing, if it’s true to the point where the deal wouldn’t hurt the Oilers at all i.e. no blue chipper going out or fat contract coming in.

  23. Yeti says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Talbot is almost exactly a NHL average starter this year.

    That’s quite a bit above replacement.

    Right. So why is perception of him so low? Is it the ‘getting noticed for specific bad things’ syndrome, or is it that expectations were overly inflated in the first place?

  24. frjohnk says:

    Yeti: Is it the ‘getting noticed for specific bad things’ syndrome

    ding ding ding.

    First shot goals and PK.

  25. Glovjuice says:

    Pescador: Man, you must be super regular
    Congratulations

    8:30-9:00 AM 7 days a week, baby.

  26. frjohnk says:

    Wilde: Yeah, if they thought they incurring significant risk by selling low there, then the manager should be dismissed in my view.

    I could buy it considering Chiarelli’s whole “he’s bounced back, I knew he would” declaration of victory.

    It’s a lesson in why you don’t let a guy who’s late(r) in his career and set in his ways clean up his own mess.

    Amazing, if it’s true to the point where the deal wouldn’t hurt the Oilers at all i.e. no blue chipper going out or fat contract coming in.

    If not for the Oilers being a joke for a decade, I think Chia would have been punted at the end of last year. The Lucic signing and now “reclamation” will just be added to the list of big moves that have blown up in his face.

  27. Glovjuice says:

    drglen:
    Glovjuice,

    Sorry i didnt realize you guys had some kind of nutrition thing going on

    I’m like OP but just Squash and no gym…and 3 beer a day. But, 4-5 L water per day due to the hellish Gout.

  28. Glovjuice says:

    YKOil: Post the 2019-2020 signing bonus payment, Lucic counts $6 million against the cap but only $4 million in cash.PC would be well advised to trade Lucic at any time a trade comes available but if he does it after paying the SB in 2019-2020 he only has to retain $1 million a year to give a floor team a $6 million Cap hit on a $3 million salary.

    I believe a trade is doable, pending Lucic waiving the NMC, at any time but after July 1, 2019 it should happen fairly quickly and it shouldn’t cost the Oilers an arm and a leg to unload it.

    As for Talbot, having trouble trusting him nowadays.Don’t trust Koskinen yet.If offered an honest to goodness overpay, on a trade for Talbot, that brought back a needed player (so not a draft pick)… then I do it.Otherwise, no.Will be interesting to see if Ottawa keeps Anderson all year given their (lack of ) a lottery pick situation; normally Anderson would be long gone.

    Have faith in Sekera, not sure I want to see him back anytime soon this year.

    Strome is a player we HAVE to be able to upgrade on. RIGHT?

    blues need help in net and have killer prospects

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Yeti: Right. So why is perception of him so low? Is it the ‘getting noticed for specific bad things’ syndrome, or is it that expectations were overly inflated in the first place?

    For me its a matter of what the future holds.

    I don’t re-sign him. His track record is too uneven and he’s 32 in July.

    Since I’m not re-signing him, its best to cash him in as he would have some value.

    Going with Koskinen/Montoya vs Talbot/Koskinen is probably an increase in goals against, but I’m not sure how much.

    Intuitively I think the value you get from trading Talbot to a team in need is much greater than the (if any) extra goals against this season.

  30. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: For me its a matter of what the future holds.

    I don’t re-sign him.His track record is too uneven and he’s 32 in July.

    Since I’m not re-signing him, its best to cash him in as he would have some value.

    Going with Koskinen/Montoya vs Talbot/Koskinen is probably an increase in goals against, but I’m not sure how much.

    Intuitively I think the value you get from trading Talbot to a team in need is much greater than the (if any) extra goals against this season.

    I agree with the not re signing Talbot

    But as long as the Oilers are battling for a playoff spot, they wont be trading Talbot, even if he is just the back up.

    If Talbot finishes the season on another team, I would say that both Chia and McClellan are done.

  31. who says:

    Wilde: Yeah, if they thought they incurring significant risk by selling low there, then the manager should be dismissed in my view.

    I could buy it considering Chiarelli’s whole “he’s bounced back, I knew he would” declaration of victory.

    It’s a lesson in why you don’t let a guy who’s late(r) in his career and set in his ways clean up his own mess.

    Amazing, if it’s true to the point where the deal wouldn’t hurt the Oilers at all i.e. no blue chipper going out or fat contract coming in.

    I refuse to believe that Chia passed on the chance to move Lucic last summer with no salary retention or sweetener added.
    First of all, what opposing GM offers that trade?
    And secondly, Chia can’t be that dumb. Can he?

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Yeti: Right. So why is perception of him so low? Is it the ‘getting noticed for specific bad things’ syndrome, or is it that expectations were overly inflated in the first place?

    I misspoke.

    I was looking at a graph that had Talbot right at expectation for Goals Saved Above Average. That’s not “average starter” though. Average starters are positive in GSAA.

    I’ll correct my statement in the day thread and give some data.

    When looking at 5v5 SV%, he’s below average.

    When looking at all situations, he’s way below average.

    Small samples and all, but his track record is long enough here that you can make a call on him.

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: I agree with the not re signing Talbot

    But as long as the Oilers are battling for a playoff spot, they wont be trading Talbot, even if he is just the back up.

    If Talbot finishes the season on another team, I would say that both Chia and McClellan are done.

    If we get to late December or mid-January and Koskinen is significantly outplaying Talbot I think they can trade him while in a playoff spot.

  34. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If we get to late December or mid-January and Koskinen is significantly outplaying Talbot I think they can trade him while in a playoff spot.

    Organization would be weighing that decision that the optics would not good if the Oilers miss the playoffs if Koskinen has some wobble and Talbot bounces back.

  35. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If we get to late December or mid-January and Koskinen is significantly outplaying Talbot I think they can trade him while in a playoff spot.

    I think that’s the prudent play.
    Give it until Christmas and then make the decision.
    My dream scenario is to have Koskinen playing well enough to extend for 2 or 3 years at 3 million per year. It’s a gamble but so is extending Talbot, and I’m guessing Koskinen is the cheaper gamble. If you can sign a quality backup or costarter for under 2 million next year you’ve just shaved 2 million off of this years cap hit.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde,

    I think that is a strong prediction of the lineup.

  37. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If we get to late December or mid-January and Koskinen is significantly outplaying Talbot I think they can trade him while in a playoff spot.

    Talbot has significant (for a goalie) value in the league, too. I remember reading that from multiple reporters over the time he’s been here.

    A Grubaeur coming loose would be nice in this scenario over the summer. That’d be a good use of the current pick/prospect stockpile imo.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: I agree with the not re signing Talbot

    But as long as the Oilers are battling for a playoff spot, they wont be trading Talbot, even if he is just the back up.

    If Talbot finishes the season on another team, I would say that both Chia and McClellan are done.

    Can’t disagree with this. Sure, maybe Talbot isn’t in the plans for the future or even for next year but that doesn’t necessarily mean management is going to look to trade him. Trading him or “cashing him in” is something that “sellers” do with their UFAs and I’m quite certain management isn’t looking at identifying as a “seller” any time soon.

    Yes, a team must balance “asset management” vs. “100% commitment to winning now”, however, we aren’t talking about losing John Tavares here, we’re talking about a struggling goalie in his 30s – its not like the “cashing in” will be that material.

    Koskinen has been the better goalie over the last month, however, what does that mean? Can we really read anything from a 5-game stint? Not to mention that, in 3 of his 5 games he has let in 3 (or more goals) with a save percentage under .900 – its not like Koskinen is playing lights out.

    The risk of “cashing in” on Talbot, with the team being right it the middle of the playoff race and even in the mix for the division, is far too great.

  39. russ99 says:

    With Talbot’s play being less than expected, this could help us in FA negotiations.

    There isn’t a lot of quality we can afford out there next summer, and both our goaltenders are FAs.

    A shrewd GM would toss in a 2 year lowball offer while his perceived value is lower.

  40. Wilde says:

    I wasn’t thrilled about passing up someone like Niklas Nordgren around our 3rd round pick area, but this whole situation screams that it’s more than okay for the org to be aggressive on long-term goaltending.

  41. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: Organization would be weighing that decision that the optics would not good if the Oilers miss the playoffs if Koskinen has some wobble and Talbot bounces back.

    It’s not a move without risk

  42. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: Talbot has significant (for a goalie) value in the league, too. I remember reading that from multiple reporters over the time he’s been here.

    A Grubaeur coming loose would be nice in this scenario over the summer. That’d be a good use of the current pick/prospect stockpile imo.

    COL traded for Grubauer to replace Varlamov.

    Varlamov is UFA.

  43. VOR says:

    frjohnk: I dont doubt VOR’s source.Maybe Lucic said no to the other team.Its also possible that the Oilers were hoping that Lucic was going to bounce back and wanted to keep him.They may have thought they were selling low in the summer.

    My source recently told me a big part of the problem was a classic duelling pigs in a poke situation. Neither side could figure out how to fairly value the players involved. With or without cap implications.

  44. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: COL traded for Grubauer to replace Varlamov.

    Varlamov is UFA.

    Not literally Grubauer himself, but a Grubauer

    I meant a similarly performing guy coming off his contract (or is close) where the team has to or wants to part with him, like say if the Sharks were moving Aaron Dell next summer

    Or like when Scott Darling left

  45. Pescador says:

    drglen:
    Pescador,
    So.I take it you dont like tbe flames much and mike smith is not your favorite player?

    This is a hot take Glen,
    your handle says Dr. but I’m guessing Dentist?

    Edit: probably Chiropractor

  46. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Can’t disagree with this. Sure, maybe Talbot isn’t in the plans for the future or even for next year but that doesn’t necessarily mean management is going to look to trade him. Trading him or “cashing him in” is something that “sellers” do with their UFAs and I’m quite certain management isn’t looking at identifying as a “seller” any time soon.

    Yes, a team must balance “asset management” vs. “100% commitment to winning now”, however, we aren’t talking about losing John Tavares here, we’re talking about a struggling goalie in his 30s – its not like the “cashing in” will be that material.

    Koskinen has been the better goalie over the last month, however, what does that mean?Can we really read anything from a 5-game stint? Not to mention that, in 3 of his 5 games he has let in 3 (or more goals) with a save percentage under .900 – its not like Koskinen is playing lights out.

    The risk of “cashing in” on Talbot, with the team being right it the middle of the playoff race and even in the mix for the division, is far too great.

    No one is suggesting making this move now.

    It’s suggested that it be done if:

    1) we gat past the halfway point of the season
    2) Koskinen is outplaying Talbot
    3) There is no plan to re-sign Talbot

    If Talbot is playing then like he is now there isn’t much difference between he and Montoya

    He would have more value than Maroon and Pete managed to turn that expiring contract into Marody so don’t down play the value available.

    Goalies who have started at the NHL level have worth at the deadline if someone needs one.

    They key point being someone needing one.

  47. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: Not literally Grubauer himself, but a Grubauer

    I meant a similarly performing guy coming off his contract (or is close) where the team has to or wants to part with him, like say if the Sharks were moving Aaron Dell next summer

    Or like when Scott Darling left

    Ah, understood

  48. Pescador says:

    russ99:
    With Talbot’s play being less than expected, this could help us in FA negotiations.

    There isn’t a lot of quality we can afford out there next summer, and both our goaltenders are FAs.

    A shrewd GM would toss in a 2 year lowball offer while his perceived value is lower.

    I highly endorse this message

  49. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He would have more value than Maroon and Pete managed to turn that expiring contract into Marody so don’t down play the value available.

    The value swing itself here would be immense, too, because we could either take on money through

    – a separate trade with a deadline seller and get a player at retained salary, and in this deal you could send back whatever you got for Talbot which lessens the impact on the current farm

    – taking on bad money with the space from losing Talbot and getting a better return, as an example the Habs got Armia (solid middle-six winger) for taking on Mason’s 4.1M

    So in scenario 1, you go from having 4M giving you little value into a 6M winger or whatever at retained salary

    In scenario 2, you could maybe even get a 1st round pick. That seems kind of homer-y, but Armia’s value was high after Winnipeg’s year and you add that to Talbot’s probable value

  50. drglen says:

    Pescador,

    So i take it you dont like dentists and chiropractors

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: No one is suggesting making this move now.

    It’s suggested that it be done if:

    1) we gat past the halfway point of the season
    2) Koskinen is outplaying Talbot
    3) There is no plan to re-sign Talbot

    If Talbot is playing then like he is now there isn’t much difference between he and Montoya

    He would have more value than Maroon and Pete managed to turn that expiring contract into Marody so don’t down play the value available.

    Goalies who have started at the NHL level have worth at the deadline if someone needs one.

    They key point being someone needing one.

    Sure, fair enough, however I thought some posts implied that a Talbot move could be explored right away – perhaps I was incorrectly inferring.

  52. drglen says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    If chias phone was ringing off the hook and crazy value being offered then maybe. But conservative apprach is best here. Alot of things would be different if we lost the montreal game

  53. Pescador says:

    drglen:
    Pescador,

    So i take it you dont like dentists and chiropractors

    ha,
    I like them just fine, but they are not doctors
    Dr. Glen
    Den. Glen
    Chr. Glen

    I only want one of these examining my prostate

  54. Lewis Grant says:

    Oilers trade Strome for Ryan Spooner.

    I actually don’t mind this deal, even though it’s not the kind of deal I was looking for.

    Ordinarily I would feel like we were selling low on Strome, as he’s been better this year than his boxcars would suggest. But I think that Spooner is probably as good as we could get while selling high on Strome. For the past four seasons, Spooner has consistently produced 50 points per 82 games; Strome has done that only once in his career. I remember wondering why the Bruins traded Spooner away for so little. I’m now wondering why the Rangers have done the same.

    Would be glad to hear from anyone more in the know.

« Older Comments

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca