Smoke When I Drink

by Lowetide

I like using comparables when talking about prospects, it gives me a possible trajectory for the future. Blame Bill James. I marked a bushel for Jesse Puljujarvi this time last year—William Nylander, Mikko Rantanen and David Pastrnak—but a lot of people had those names when going in search of Jesse’s brothers. Statistical matches are fun, and are accurate sometimes. What about stylistic matches? What about situational matches? Interesting idea.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Best available offer is here!

  • New Jonathan Willis: Tobias Rieder will miss a critical month, creating problems for Edmonton but opportunities for its players.
  • New Tyler Dellow: If nothing changes, Oilers should buy out Milan Lucic next summer.
  • New Lowetide: The past, present and future of the Andrej Sekera contract.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Elmer Benning on his 47 years as a scout (excellent article).
  • Jonathan Willis: After several failed attempts to fix their issues on the wings, it’s time for the Oilers to explore the trade market.
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid, a 50-goal season and chasing Phil Esposito’s magical 1970-71.
  • Lowetide: Oilers send Puljujarvi and Yamamoto to Bakersfield; recall Marody
  • Lowetide: Oilers trade options: Dealing from strength is finally a possibility.
  • Lowetide: What happens to the Oilers when Alex Chiasson’s hot streak ends?
  • Jonathan Willis: Under the circumstances, playing in the AHL affords Jesse Puljujarvi the best chance at career redemption.
  • Lowetide: A new day dawning for Oilers prospects in Bakersfield as increased usage means greater success.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: In depth: Embattled Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli defends his record, remains bullish on the future.
  • Lowetide: Future Oilers bubbling under in Bakersfield may get a look sooner rather than later.
  • Lowetide: Oscar Klefbom takes a step forward for the Edmonton Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Forty years later, remembering the forgotten trade that brought Wayne Gretzky to Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: Oilers reach a pressure point on defence and right wing.

MACT AND THE HEMMER

It’s my experience that when a decade passes without agreement, we’re either talking about Middle East peace or an Edmonton Oiler. There was a time Ales Hemsky could part the Red Sea with his ability to divide people on the simplest issues–especially Oiler fans.

Ales Hemsky was supremely skilled, and delivered excitement during a period where there was very little. The one time he had a chance to play on a really good team he led that club in points and then had a terrific playoff run.

Hemsky arrived as a Czech playing in the QMJHL and by his second training camp Craig MacTavish didn’t want to send him back. The young Hemsky had much to learn away from the puck but he was talented offensively (MacT made several bets during his coaching career on offensive players) and from the fall of 2002 he was in the NHL when healthy or not locked out.

MacT gave him 9:26 (evens) a night (6-15-21) as a teenage rookie, 59 games. Hemsky got 2:36 on the PP (0-9-9) and he earned more time in year two: 11:13 (evens) and 2:42 (power play). A funny thing happened before year three, the NHL cancelled the season. Hemsky played in his hometown Pardubice, and when he returned, MacT released the kraken: 11:38 evens, 5:03 power play, 18 minutes a night. Hemsky led the team in scoring, delivered some memorable postseason moments and the two men shared their career highlight under the same sky. Hemsky was 22 that season.

The year away from each other might have helped, time away and the absence of alternatives (Edmonton didn’t have anyone like Hemsky, at least during the regular season) clears the mind.

I don’t know that Todd McLellan and Jesse Puljujarvi are ever going to go fishing together, but McLellan doesn’t have a lot of good alternatives who offer what JP brings. At 20, Hemsky was getting 11:13 a night at even strength. Jesse Puljujarvi? 11:09. You can look it up.

Rieder is out for a month, give or take a weekend. That’s a blow, because the team was running on 13 forwards and Cooper Marody is a flat out rookie. Edmonton’s recall is another man who doesn’t have NHL experience, although Patrick Russell (photo by Mark Williams) is in the final year of his entry deal. I was going to write about the PK options (I use SA/60) but Sunil Agnihotri did that and more here.

 

Patrick Russell got the call yesterday, he’s up to the NHL for the first time in his pro career. I love these stories, and in the case of Russell it all started in Holte, Denmark, which is a suburb of Copenhagen. I’ve seen him several times as a Condors forward and he’s a good penalty killer, can score shorties, anticipates well and is a throwback type in that he’s where you expect him to be most of the time. McLellan will like him.

CONDORS SCORING, FORWARDS, 5-ON-5

  • Cooper Marody and Patrick Russell are now in the NHL, with Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto in Bakersfield.
  • Tyler Benson is starting to post crooked numbers at 5-on-5 that’s a terrific sign. The Oilers should resist any temptation to call him up, just let him flourish at that level. Cup of coffee late in the year if it makes sense.
  • Cameron Hebig is among the leading rookie scorers in the AHL, much of that coming on the power play.
  • Joe Gambardella is a player I thought we might see instead of Russell. Both men are playing well.
  • The Condors play in San Diego tonight.

CONDORS, DEFENSE, 5-ON-5

  • Jay Woodcroft is some kind of prospect whisperer, his best prospects are rising to the top.
  • Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear and William Lagesson are all playing well, with the numbers suggesting Jones might be the early recall option over the other two. Of course, lefty-righty and style would have an impact.
  • Kevin Gravel, Ryan Stanton and Keegan Lowe represent the veteran group, Gravel getting some NHL time.
  • Logan Day appears to be a chaos blue based on on-ice goal differential but he can play.

WINTER TOP 20

I’ll begin my ‘winter top 20’ at The Athletic tomorrow, with the No. 1 prospect in the Oilers’ system. Damn near half the list is new, it’s a stronger list than a year ago. I hope you enjoy it, one of my favourite things to do each year, this is year No. 16 for the winter list. The first No. 1 prospect in winter 2003? Jarrett Stoll. As a throwback bonus, here is the winter top 20, 2004 edition:

  1. Rob Schremp—Not a complete player by any means, but a potential impact player.
  2. Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers—Made a huge leap with early success.
  3. Marc-Antoine Pouliot—He’s a kid who could falter in one area and still make it to the show.
  4. Jeff Woywitka—Size, calm feet, makes a nice outlet pass and is progressing. Lots to like.
  5. Doug Lynch—Pretty much the same as Woywitka only more offense so far.
  6. Colin McDonald—Best PF prospect in the system imo.
  7. Jean Francois Jacques—Is stepping forward in a big way.
  8. Matt Greene—Possible impact defender.
  9. Devan Dubnyk—There’s a monster in net.
  10. Roman Tesliuk—I like how he handles the puck. Confident.
  11. Tony Salmelainen—Size only concern. Skilled.
  12. Brad Winchester—Has turned a corner.
  13. Jesse Niinimaki—The body of Ichabod Crane ain’t gonna get it done.
  14. Zack Stortini—Showing some promise.
  15. Troy Bodie—Ditto.
  16. Brock Radunske—Based on potential.
  17. Alexei Mikhnov—I give the hell up.
  18. Jani Rita—Boy, did the 90s blow or what?
  19. Liam Reddox—Skill.
  20. Mike Bishai—Has overcome exceptional odds.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning, we’re heading for the weekend and there’s much to discuss. At 10, TSN 1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. CFL playoffs, Oilers putting McDavid-Draisaitl together, and best/worst broadcast teams of all time.
  • Danny Austin, Calgary Sun. The western final should be a fabulous game, we’ll preview.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Western final, Oilers big weekend on the way.

It’s been one year since Tyler Yaremchuk joined the show, we’ll celebrate by playing the most famous moment of the last 12 months at 11:20. You don’t want to miss it! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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Clarkenstein

I was criticized (heavily) on here when I suggested the Oil could have used a Tkachuk type in their lineup. Of course hindsight is 20/20 but I’m standing by it. Every time the Oil draft a Euro especially a Scandahoovian visions of Jari Kurri dance in their head.

Wyndi

the browns had a player named Jim Brown? shut the front door!

Wilde

Speaking of prospects, I’d love to wave a wand and make every U18 tournament (WJ, Hlinka, Five Nations, Canada-Russia, etc) all at the end of the year in May-June and watch teams absolutely lose their minds on draft day as year after year it devolves into a shit show.

It’s seriously mind blowing.

Vasily Podkolzin is ranked #2-3 in so many lists right now.

He has 2.63 pts/60 in the MHL right now which is great, but a guy like Ruslan Ishkakov (who I loved) was at 3.30 last year in that league.

Plus, there’s a Leon Draisaitl level prospect sitting right there.

OriginalPouzar

“Tyler Benson is starting to post crooked numbers at 5-on-5 that’s a terrific sign. The Oilers should resist any temptation to call him up, just let him flourish at that level. Cup of coffee late in the year if it makes sense.”

Agree with this 100% – also think the same should apply to Hebig, Jones, Marody, Bear and Lagesson.

Sure, injuries piling up can chance that plan (and have with Marody) but, for the most part leave the kids in Bakersfield and allow them to perculate.

Very excited for the game tonight – hopefully Kailer and Jesse can push the offence on the line with Currie.

Hopefully Benson and Hebig and push the offence on the line with whoever their new center is (likely Vessel as per Wilde’s suggestion).

OriginalPouzar

Of note with Caleb Jones – he has been playing the right side almost all year – primarily with Gravel earlier in the year and, more recently with Lagesson.

I’m not sure if he’s a rare case where the d-man is as (or more) effective on his off-side but I think its noteworthy.

As per my previous post, if injuries pile up on the back end, my hope remains that they try their best to keep the kids in the AHL to develop and call up a guy like Lowe – no, I don’t really want Lowe in the NHL lineup but I’m all about these kids staying in Bakersfield as long as possible. We are chalk full of 1st and 2nd year pros that are pushing well – keep them pushing as a group together I say.

Pescador

Wyndi,

Please delete your account

Pescador

13. Jesse Niinimaki—The body of Ichabod Crane ain’t gonna get it done.

HaHa

dustrock

Like Lagesson as a Hjarmarlsson type slow burn that one.

Wilde

dustrock:
Like Lagesson as a Hjarmarlsson type slow burn that one.

That’s actually a precise match in draft year offense in the Swedish U20 league

20 pts in 44 games and 15 pts in 31 games

npanciroli

Hard to fault the Oilers for picking Puljujarvi. How they developed him? Absolutely.

npanciroli

Wilde,

Huh, pretty interesting. Close to the same size as well.

drglen

Abit off topic but does anybody remember marc habsheib ?

A really strong junior and farm player but couldnt seem to stick around. He coaches now ?

Todds call ups will be conservative. Actuslly i do think malone is next up.

LadiesloveSmid

npanciroli:
Hard to fault the Oilers for picking Puljujarvi. How they developed him? Absolutely.

Tkachuk has been stapled to Backlund and largely Frolik since entering the league.

Couldn’t tell you Pulju’s most common linemate. Definitely not primo offensive minutes with consistent linemates

npanciroli

LadiesloveSmid,

Lack of patience stands out as well. One of the youngest players drafted and you throw him into the NHL but then don’t have the patience to have him learn while playing with one of our better centers and constantly bench and demote him? Crazy.

Melvis

drglen,

Easy to remember. Coaches PA Raiders. 1st in WHL. 18-1.

oilersjo

Prince Albert Raiders Penalty Kill Scored 11 shorthanded allowed 7 goals

Professor Q

Clarkenstein:
I was criticized (heavily) on here when I suggested the Oil could have used a Tkachuk type in their lineup. Of course hindsight is 20/20 but I’m standing by it. Every time the Oil draft a Euro especially a Scandahoovian visions of Jari Kurri dance in their head.

I think a lot of people were for him actually, at the time. As a Knights fan yeah, sure, Memorial Cup winner would have been nice, but I both,

a) Defended his skating ability as that was in question (same with Bouchard)

b) Stated that I didn’t like his attitude and dirty style of play, which unfortunately comes with the territory of being a Knights fan (aye, the Hunters love those players…)

Sure, would have been nice to choose him and he would have been my second choice, but Puljujärvi was a 2-3 OV pick gifted to Edmonton at #4. Of course people would have liked him.

texmex

oilersjo,

Arizona Coyotes have scored 10 shorthanded goals and allowed 5 goals on 58 attempts. They have not been scored on while on the PP.

That is insane. 10 shorthanded goals in 18 games.

drglen

npanciroli,

Well todd needs to win games and fights a hostile fan base. Had we made the playoffs hed have more time for jp

Jp could still display possession battle and sound defensive awareness on lower lines. And i dont think he did.

Is jp better than jason spezza ? He spent 2 full years on farm and a third during lockout

I dont see jp back this year

And i can see yamo being traded

OriginalPouzar

As per Reid Wilkins, looks like Rattie will play with Nuge and Chiasson with Rieder out.

geowal

That 2004 list – woof. When Colin McDonald shows up as one of the better ones…

OriginalPouzar

As per Jack Michaels:

Oiler practice:

Caggiula-McDavid-Draisaitl
Chiasson-RNH-Rattie
Lucic-Strome-Marody
Khaira-Brodziak-Kassian

Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Benning
Gravel/Garrison-Russell

npanciroli

OriginalPouzar,

Maybe I am crazy, but I would move Lucic to the top line to see what happens.

LadiesloveSmid

OriginalPouzar:
As per Jack Michaels:

Oiler practice:

Caggiula-McDavid-Draisaitl
Chiasson-RNH-Rattie
Lucic-Strome-Marody
Khaira-Brodziak-Kassian

Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Benning
Gravel/Garrison-Russell

Poor RNH had $12M wingers in 2015 and has $1.6M wingers in 2018

godot10

Clarkenstein:
I was criticized (heavily) on here when I suggested the Oil could have used a Tkachuk type in their lineup. Of course hindsight is 20/20 but I’m standing by it. Every time the Oil draft a Euro especially a Scandahoovian visions of Jari Kurri dance in their head.

If Puljujarvi had been stapled to Backlund and Frolik for 2.25 years, we would be having a different conversation. Backlund is a very, very good hockey player. Frolik is good too, but age and injuries are now catching up to him.

Wilde

Caggiula – McDavid – Marody

Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Chiasson

Khaira – Strome – Rattie

Lucic – Brodziak – Kassian

godot10

Wilde:
Speaking of prospects, I’d love to wave a wand and make every U18 tournament (WJ, Hlinka, Five Nations, Canada-Russia, etc) all at the end of the year in May-June and watch teams absolutely lose their minds on draft day as year after year it devolves into a shit show.

It’s seriously mind blowing.

Vasily Podkolzin is ranked #2-3 in so many lists right now.

He has 2.63 pts/60 in the MHL right now which is great, but a guy like Ruslan Ishkakov (who I loved) was at 3.30 last year in that league.

Plus, there’s a Leon Draisaitl level prospect sitting right there.

Size might have something to do with the difference in rating between Podkolzin and Ishkakov. Smaller guys take longer to develop, especially if they are coming from overseas. Even if they come from North America (Yamamoto).

drglen

npanciroli,

To play with those guys you have to have quick hands to hanfdle an unexpected pass

godot10

geowal:
That 2004 list – woof. When Colin McDonald shows up as one of the better ones…

Todd Nelson fixed him late and he had an NHL career.

LadiesloveSmid

godot10,

Yamamoto isn’t really dragging behind his draft year just yet.

godot10

LadiesloveSmid:
godot10,

Yamamoto isn’t really dragging behind his draft year just yet.

I didn’t say that. He will be probably more on the Nic Petan timeline, which is typical of small skill forwards. Now that he is in the AHL, we will get a better idea quickly of where he is.

Wilde

godot10: Size might have something to do with the difference in rating between Podkolzin and Ishkakov.Smaller guys take longer to develop, especially if they are coming from overseas.Even if they come from North America (Yamamoto).

I’m not lobbying for Ishkakov over Podkolzin as a prospect, just giving an idea of what high-in-the-draft MHL offense looks like. Ruslan went in the 2nd round and I wouldn’t have gotten him because the earliest pick I’d use would be in the 3rd round, thinking no one would take him till the 5th.

True top-5 offense in the MHL should be well clear of Ishkakov and into Kucherov and Kuznetsov territory in my view.

Putting him up at 2-3 because he’s crushing the U18 circuit is nutty in the context of a draft like this where there’s 4-5 centres of quality that there’s usually only two of per draft.

--hudson--

godot10: Size might have something to do with the difference in rating between Podkolzin and Ishkakov.Smaller guys take longer to develop, especially if they are coming from overseas.Even if they come from North America (Yamamoto).

In case you guys missed this:
https://nypost.com/2018/10/17/islanders-draft-pick-victim-of-one-of-scariest-hits-youll-see/

Iskhakov is back playing again but he’s still not adjusted to college hockey. 1 goal 3 assists in 8 games. Hop he makes it!

BONE207

Patrick Russell: TMac will like him.

We seem to write about the players with various biases or sometimes, math, to back us up. We speculate & extrapolate our eye tests & assumptions. We are almost 20 games in & we figure we have enough info to assign the players into their various pigeon holes.

What do we know for sure about the coach?. We see him use stats that may not be ideal. We denigrate him for player usage & question his communication skills. Insights into the coach’s mind would be that last frontier.

Woodguy…how’s the Wood$$$ coming along in this area?

Melman

OriginalPouzar:
As per Jack Michaels:

Oiler practice:

Caggiula-McDavid-Draisaitl
Chiasson-RNH-Rattie
Lucic-Strome-Marody
Khaira-Brodziak-Kassian

Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Benning
Gravel/Garrison-Russell

Impossible to know, but it would be very surprising if 97 didn’t have at least a little bit of input into who his wingers are. I wonder if that’s why DC seems to be there more than any fan would like

Wilde

–hudson–: In case you guys missed this:
https://nypost.com/2018/10/17/islanders-draft-pick-victim-of-one-of-scariest-hits-youll-see/

Iskhakov is back playing again but he’s still not adjusted to college hockey.1 goal 3 assists in 8 games.Hop he makes it!

It’s college hockey so he might not get ice-time until his 3rd year

(also that hit was absolutely brutal)

adamjames2

I quite like Rattie on the left wing. I thought last year that Slepy should’ve gotten a shot in the top 6 playing his off wing.

I don’t follow the analytics crowd close enough to find the info, but is is there any data showing off hand winger results like we have on off hand defenders?

Just intuitively I would imagine the guys playing the opposite wing would naturally own a plus shot so that’s gotta skew the results right?

Rube Foster

OriginalPouzar:
As per Reid Wilkins, looks like Rattie will play with Nuge and Chiasson with Rieder out.

I am glad to see Rattie escape the DtO Line (Death to Offense Line) with Lucic and Strome. A few more games playing right wing with Lucic and Strome and people around here would be maligning Rattie and scratching their heads about his lack of production.

It’s not that much of a mystery, as folks like Woodguy and Wilde point out on a regular basis, Lucic has absolutely sunk any player on this team not named McDavid 5×5 offensive production for well over two seasons. Just ask Leon and Jesse about their recent experiences.

Rattie has phenomenal chemistry with Nuge, he has a real knack for finding Nuge in good spots on the ice. If Chiasson can stay hot this line might be able to put up some crooked numbers at 5×5.

With that said, I still think Lucic can help the Oilers win Hockey games. We’re just going to have to take a deep breath and agree to not whine about his Salary.

Lucic – Brodziak – Kassian would be a rock solid line that could go toe to toe against 80 percent of the lines in NHL. Kassian could channel his inner Wild Man with impunity and Lucic would be pushed into “engagement mode” on regular basis – which brings out Lucic’s best brand of hockey.

That would free up Khaira to ride shotgun with Strome – a duo the fancies like a great deal. Or just call Lucic – Brodziak – Kassian your third line, let Khaira drive a fourth line at center – a role he is well suited for, and see if McDavid can breathe some offensive life into Strome on his wing.

When they shipped out Eberle, didnt they say the plan was to put Strome and McDavid together because they were old buddies and thought they would have chemistry together, like Dylan Strome did… Strome 2.0.

I seem to recall they ran Strome with McDavid last preseason and they had excellent results?

Woodguy v2.0

Melman: Impossible to know, but it would be very surprising if 97 didn’t have at least a little bit of input into who his wingers are.I wonder if that’s why DC seems to be there more than any fan would like

I think the “Connor and Leon get to pick their wingers” is a narrative created to protect the coach.

I remember Sather putting raw rookie Tikanen with Gretzky in the playoffs.

Coaches will put players where they want to.

I’m sure some listen to the players and take their wishes into consideration, but McLellan barely talks to his team off the ice (if the stories are to be believed) so I don’t put too much stock into it.

Scungilli Slushy

Woodguy v2.0:
I know its too early to come to conclusions, but its important to note things along the way…..

Oiler rankings among goalies who’ve played at least 250 minutes this year (57 goalies)

All Situations SV%
Koskinen .918 (19th)
Talbot .895 (42nd)

All Situations GSAA/100 (goals saved about average per 100 shots)
Koskinen +0.88 (19th)
Talbot -1.36 (42nd)

5v5 SV%
Koskinen .929 (tied 19th)
Talbot .920 (30th)

4v5 SV%
Koskinen .923 (7th) <—- that’s a heater
Talbot .750 (48th)

While the 4v5 Heater Koskinen is on helps his overall numbers, his 5v5 ranking is near “average starter”

Talbot is “below starter” in all respects so far.

If we look at 16/17 – now of Talbot we see: (minimum 1000 minutes played)

All Situations:
SV%.912 (36th)
GSAA/100 -0.02(36th)

5v5
SV% .923 (tied 30th)
GSAA/100 +.018 (33rd)

I am on record saying that Talbots shitty overall SV% had a lot to do with a shitty PK.

If Koskinen’s heater continues into February I’ll have to re-evaluate that position….

That said, even if we take the PK numbers out and just look at 5v5, Talbot is barely a starter, and this data set includes his 16/17 season.

EDM can’t tie themselves to Talbot long term as he hasn’t shown any reason to do that.

He’s also 32 in July and goalies don’t get better with age.

One last thing:

In the 16-17 until today data set Talbot was tied for 30th with a .923

One of the players he tied with was Al Montoya.

If the results continue the way they are now, I am unsure that Koskinen/Montoya is any different than Talbot/Koskinen.

If Talbot has trade value after Christmas AND EDM doesn’t plan on re-signing him then its a slam dunk to trade him if another team needs a goalie

I would love to see the Oilers become more strategic like this . Winning a few pro trades would really bolster quality.

Woodguy v2.0


@TSNRyanRishaug
8m8 minutes ago
More
Talbot starts Sunday, Koskinen starts vs Calgary.

That makes sense.

OriginalPouzar

No-brainer to me to start Koskinen on Sat in Calgary.

vinotintazo

If I recall correctly, talbot had great starts vs VGK, so its a no brainer…

Woodguy v2.0

Woodguy v2.0:
I know its too early to come to conclusions, but its important to note things along the way…..

Oiler rankings among goalies who’ve played at least 250 minutes this year (57 goalies)

All Situations SV%
Koskinen .918 (19th)
Talbot .895 (42nd)

All Situations GSAA/100 (goals saved about average per 100 shots)
Koskinen +0.88 (19th)
Talbot -1.36 (42nd)

5v5 SV%
Koskinen .929 (tied 19th)
Talbot .920 (30th)

4v5 SV%
Koskinen .923 (7th) <—- that’s a heater
Talbot .750 (48th)

While the 4v5 Heater Koskinen is on helps his overall numbers, his 5v5 ranking is near “average starter”

Talbot is “below starter” in all respects so far.

If we look at 16/17 – now of Talbot we see: (minimum 1000 minutes played)

All Situations:
SV%.912 (36th)
GSAA/100 -0.02(36th)

5v5
SV% .923 (tied 30th)
GSAA/100 +.018 (33rd)

I am on record saying that Talbots shitty overall SV% had a lot to do with a shitty PK.

If Koskinen’s heater continues into February I’ll have to re-evaluate that position….

That said, even if we take the PK numbers out and just look at 5v5, Talbot is barely a starter, and this data set includes his 16/17 season.

EDM can’t tie themselves to Talbot long term as he hasn’t shown any reason to do that.

He’s also 32 in July and goalies don’t get better with age.

One last thing:

In the 16-17 until today data set Talbot was tied for 30th with a .923

One of the players he tied with was Al Montoya.

If the results continue the way they are now, I am unsure that Koskinen/Montoya is any different than Talbot/Koskinen.

If Talbot has trade value after Christmas AND EDM doesn’t plan on re-signing him then its a slam dunk to trade him if another team needs a goalie

NOTE: I used Naturalstattrick’s GSAA and I’m not sure I like it as much as Manny’s. I’m going to dig into it. One thing I noticed was that sorting by GSAA/100 didn’t change the order of goalies much compared to SV% and that shouldn’t be the case.

Manny’s GSAA has Talbot top 20 in all situations GSAA/100 in 16/17-17/18 and that means something……

Wilde

On the topic of goalies: If the Oilers goaltender scouting has improved as much as the skater scouting has, we’re building statues.

drglen

These will be good games. I predict heat

Kinger_Oil.redux

OriginalPouzar:
As per Jack Michaels:

Oiler practice:

Caggiula-McDavid-Draisaitl
Chiasson-RNH-Rattie
Lucic-Strome-Marody
Khaira-Brodziak-Kassian

– Nuge is an interesting dynamic for the team. Current point per game, just been OK as a winger 5×5 with CmD though.

– Rotating him and Drai as 2C was always the plan this year, and Coach has 2 C’s on all lines but Nuges (which Coach likes)

– No one anticipated Caggs, Chiasson and Rattie as 3 top-6 wingers…

– Just win baby, but this lineup is fugley: highlights the brutal development…

Woodguy v2.0

Woodguy v2.0: NOTE: I used Naturalstattrick’s GSAA and I’m not sure I like it as much as Manny’s.I’m going to dig into it.One thing I noticed was that sorting by GSAA/100 didn’t change the order of goalies much compared to SV% and that shouldn’t be the case.

Manny’s GSAA has Talbot top 20 in all situations GSAA/100 in 16/17-17/18 and that means something……

I deleted the original post (but will leave the quote of it up)

The GSAA that Natural Stat Trick uses doesn’t weight shots, but bins them into HD, MD and LD. That’s fine, but I think that lacks the granularity of Manny’s (Corsica) so I’ll stick with Manny’s.

Doesn’t really change how I feel about Talbot (don’t re-sign) but when I do that post, I’d like Manny’s data there for GSAA

Durag

Kinger_Oil.redux:

– Just win baby, but this lineup is fugley: highlights the brutal development…

It’s the Lucic boat anchor contract effect. Imagine if you could replace him with three $2M wingers. Basically 3 more Rieders of varying specialties.

Woodguy v2.0

Here’s Nat Stat trick’s definition of GSAA:

Average (in-sample) SV% * shots against – goals against

That’s why it mirrors SV%.

I don’t think that’s much more useful than SV% in terms of ranking goalies.