Helpless

The Oilers cheated on old Hoss last night, they came out with one of those glazed starts we’ve come to accept during the Wander Years. I expect the coach will have something for the group in the coming days, some “Effort for Dummies” slides and “Why Trains Run On Time” power-point presentations. Hitchcock doesn’t support porridge efforts, and he sure as hell won’t like last night’s video.  The team is 1-3-1 against the Pacific, the general manager’s vision on display in California and not looking like a winner. This is where Hitchcock’s “I can help you” may become something like “maybe you need less ice time and more reflection” and that’s when the sweat starts running down all the cracks God gave you. It’s time for Hitchcock’s Oilers to get to work.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi to the show, plus the sudden impact of Cam Hebig and Joel Persson.
  • New Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 Prospect winter 2018: Tyler Benson.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Third line suits the eye of new Oilers coach Ken Hitchcock.
  • Jonathan Willis: Can Ken Hitchcock save Milan Lucic’s Oilers career?
  • Lowetide: A shot in the dark: What are the Oilers getting in Chris Wideman?
  • New Justin Bourne: Why switching coaches provides short-term benefits for an NHL team.
  • Lowetide: With not enough talent, and outside the playoffs, Todd McLellan’s Oilers career ends where it began.
  • Jonathan Willis: The Edmonton Oilers get their 2018-19 quarter pole report cards.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 2 Prospect winter 2018: Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 1 Prospect winter 2018: Evan Bouchard.

OILERS AFTER 23

  • Oilers in 20157-14-2, 16 points; goal differential -13
  • Oilers in 2016: 12-9-2, 26 points; goal differential +9
  • Oilers in 2017: 8-13-2, 18 points; goal differential -16
  • Oilers in 2018: 10-11-2, 22 points; goal differential -12

Oilers finished 1-1-1 on the California trip, that’s close to expectation (I had reasonable at 2-1-0) but still disappointing after the promise of the victory in San Jose. The issue for Edmonton now is running with the pack, they can’t lose sight of the No. 3 spot in the Pacific Division. Currently, the team is three points behind Anaheim, with two games in hand. It isn’t fatal but the disappointment of November is palpable this morning in Oilers Nation.

OILERS IN NOVEMBER

  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-6-2, 10 points; goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-6-1, 11 points; goal differential 0
  • Oilers in November 2017: 5-6-1, 11 points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in November 2018: 4-7-1, nine points; goal differential -10

As bad as previous Novembers have been, this one might be the worst since 2014 (that was the Dubnyk in Toronto, Nail in the Washington press box fall, team going 2-9-3). There’s a beautiful Neil Young song called “Helpless”, wonderful lyric and a haunting melody, with steel guitar (it’s actually lead with pedal, thanks Stephen Stills) that can make you weep given the right circumstance (3am, Crown Royal). That’s kind of where the fans are this morning, the men from town having frigged the rigging in broad daylight.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM NOVEMBER

  • At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0-0) Actual (1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Detroit, Washington, Tampa Bay, Florida  (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 1-3-0)
  • At home to: Colorado, Montreal (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Vegas (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: San Jose, Anaheim, Los Angeles (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • At home to: Dallas, Los Angeles  (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games 
  • Current results: 4-7-1, 9 points in 12 games

It’s difficult to see this season heading in a familiar direction, but the alternative is damned dangerous. Any fool can see the cracks and holes, but the team is at their outer marker on the cap and franchises that might trade a player of value for an expensive Oiler in return (plus the first-round pick) aren’t there yet, they haven’t made that decision at this time. Hell, Edmonton might be that team to trade players for picks in a month from now. Are you ready for ‘Sail on, Alex Chiasson’?

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom-Larsson were 22-16 in 14:28, 14-8 shots, 1-1 goals and 4-2 HDSC. Larsson can’t make that mistake, he just can’t do it. Honestly, I’m a big fan of the player, and there were other errors, but at that point in the game, you simply cannot allow the other team’s best forward a clear chance like that one. Shameful. Were 10-8 in 7:19 against Iafollo-Kopitar-Brown, and Brown should have gotten an extra penalty late when he tried to re-set Klefbom’s face on the PK. A poor night for Edmonton’s best defensemen. Went 10-6 McDavid, 12-10 without.
  • Gravel-Wideman went 9-13 in 7:37, 4-5 shots and 1-3 HDSC. Were 4-3 with 97, so 5-10 without. Were 1-8 against Wagner-Kempe-Luff. Matt Benning probably looks a sight better to most Oilers fans this morning, I’d guess. Defense is a tough position to play, especially with skates on.
  • Nurse-Russell were 9-17 in 11:36, 5-7 shots and 3-7 HDSC. Went 6-5 with McDavid, 3-12 without and that’s a concern. Nurse was 0-1 goals but that was Wideman’s mistake at the blueline, Nurse waving his lantern at a runaway train for Brown’s first goal of the game.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 24 of 27, .889. I’m not sure he can be blamed, but they needed one more, unfair perhaps considering his stellar play early in the game.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Spooner-McDavid-Draisaitl went 17-11 in 11:13, 8-5 shots, 0-1 goals and 5-3 HDSC. McDavid played with 10 forwards last night, everyone but Nuge, as Hitchcock worked tirelessly to find clean air. I know you’re probably mad at Hitchcock this morning, he isn’t Jesus and he isn’t even the Beatles, but he’s a smart man who knows a lot about NHL hockey. I’m hoping you give him a chance to find things that rhyme. Went 16-8 against Doughty-Forbort. McDavid asked questions patiently last night, suspect these losses are having an impact.
  • Lucic-Brodziak-Kassian were once again the second best line, going 11-15 in 9:30, 7-7 shots, no goals and 3-3 HDSC. If one of those crazy pucks had gone in we’d be having a different conversation. Went 6-4 in five minutes against Phaneuf-Ladue. I thought Kassian had some jump in this game, hope he keeps going. Everyone is made at this line, but not me. Lucic is badly overpaid but has found his role on the team and is pursuing it with abandon.
  • Rattie-Khaira-Puljujarvi were 3-3 in 3:37 (it was really just JJ and JP), with Rattie-JP going 1-7. Rattie and JP were 1-4 with Nuge. Khaira and Pulju took penalties. Marko Dano was on waivers the other day, Oilers didn’t take him and that’s fine, he’s certainly not Superman. Could he help here? I think he might.
  • Caggiula-Nuge-Chiasson went 8-14 in 9:01, 6-7 shots, 1-1 goals and 1-5 HDSC. This is where the team needs to add a scorer, and someone who can help Nuge push the river. I know you won’t agree, but if this line had a Mike Hoffman, I think this team makes the playoffs. Seriously. Went 8-13, 1-0 goals against Muzzin-Martinez.

NOTES

  • Power play looks better, Leon down low with 97 along the wall and they can wheel. Still relying too much on Klef’s point shot but Nuge is doing good work on the other side plus he and McDavid can and do switch out. Chiasson is a Godsend, he’s not Ryan Smyth but is a game rooster with some tipping skills.
  • McDavid was beyond fantastic last night, passing Doughty with ease and showing his electric skills. The postgame questions were salty but he handled them well.
  • I’m writing on Ryan Spooner today at The Athletic, probably up tomorrow. One of the things that makes him stand out on this roster is his similarity to Drake Caggiula. Not in style, but in being a complementary player. Given enough time with McDavid, I’m sure he would produce some offense. It isn’t ideal.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi’s third period, brief as it was, looked far better than the rest of his season. Physical, involved and in the parts of the ice where things were happening. Small victories are big steps. Hitchcock’s major card trick in the last 60 games will be in getting one of these centers to trust the big Finn. Last night was the first small step, seems to me Hitch has decided to pair Khaira with him to start.
  • I mentioned supporting Hitchcock above, and you might think I’m joking but it wasn’t meant to be one. Oilers fans, many of you, blamed McLellan heavily while (in my opinion) overlooking the massive roster issues. Those issues remain. The calls are coming from inside the house, but the priest took the wrong guy away! Roster issues are the problem here, ladies and men, and they all have no-movement clauses. And I’m a Chiarelli guy! I was pleased they brought him in, convinced he’d find a way, impressed by the Sekera signing and Talbot trade (although the Reinhart trade was wrongheaded and was known to be in real time). I’m not one of those folks who picks out one deal and hammers it like Dick Pound at an Olympics drug avail, but sooner or later you develop a past. Edmonton has to get a scoring winger but can’t trust the general manager with making a fair deal. What’s that spell?

5-on-5 points-per-60 (Forwards)

  1. Connor McDavid 2.47
  2. Leon Draisaitl 2.45
  3. Alex Chiasson 2.18
  4. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.80
  5. Drake Caggiula 1.68
  6. Tobias Rieder 1.53
  7. Ty Rattie 1.29
  8. Jujhar Khaira 1.21
  9. Kyle Brodziak 0.90
  10. Jesse Puljujarvi 0.47
  11. Milan Lucic 0.46
  12. Kailer Yamamoto 0.40
  13. Ryan Strome 0.31
  14. Zack Kassian 0.30

Before you spend the day thrashing Ken Hitchcock, have a long look at the group from No. 5-14. Your day will be spent hammering on keys thrashing the coach for leaving Lucic out with 50 seconds left in a game that had no stoppage from 4:04 to the tying goal. Hitchcock? He needs to find wingers who can score goals from the group 5-14. I would respectfully suggest you give the coach a freaking break online this day.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, scheduled to appear on a fluid morning (we’ll be trying to get someone from Calgary to answer their phone).  Scheduled to appear:

  • CFL guest from Calgary. Stampeders are the redemption story of this decade.
  • Andy McNamara, TSN4Downs. Browns win! Eagles win! Vikings win!
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Grey Cup, Oilers, week to come.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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295 Responses to "Helpless"

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  1. VOR says:

    YKOil: It isn’t a matter of what he knew, it’s a matter of what he didn’t bother to find out (ex. Reinhart is slowfooted and slow on making decisions) and what he didn’t bother to recognize (ex. 2015 was a very deep draft year, that he had 11 or so years of McDavid ahead of him and had time to build a team, that Reinhart was relatively far down the Isles own list of d-men prospects).NOT trading for Reinhart was, by far, the smarter thing to do.There isn’t even a learning curve aspect to that.It was stupid then, stupid before then and stupid after then.It was NEVER a good thing to do.EVER.

    Not everything the Oilers do is shit.Fine.Point understood.

    That PC is the guy to lead the team?Not drinking your kool-aid.

    PC is not a visionary just paying his dues until the accessibility and use of big data finally catches up to his awesomeness and everything just magically falls into place.

    Hell, one of the first thing those asshats did was get rid of Dellow and barring Dellow getting on here and saying he was in favour of trading for Reinhart, trading Hall away and that signing Lucic was a smart move, I don’t believe he was in favour of any of things.And yeah, while I recognize that he, and any of us, may not be up there with the luminaries you hobnob with, it doesn’t take a big data disciple to point out that picking up a declining asset for 7 years at $6 million a year, with a NMC for five of those years, and a buy-out circumventing salary structureis unwise at best, and more probably, just f&*king stupid.

    Bring in all the big data guys you want.I believe in most of the potential it, big data, is purported to have.But PC is not the one to steer that ship.

    Finally, odds are just as good that the devil is laughing because he wins either way, just as easy to let you think he’ll keep that promise and watch you suffer every year waiting for the pay-off.he is the devil after all.

    It is precisely because of how the Griffin Reinhart trade happened that I want Peter Chiarelli. He trusted what the people underneath him wanted to do. I have been told he listened to dissenting voices and then went with the majority and the seniority which given he didn’t know the people in the room very well was about the only option he had. He didn’t make the Griffin Reinhart decision in a void, he took advice, he decided what advice to listen to and even in that by many accounts he had co-deciders.

    And by the way it isn’t his job to go and check and see how fast Griffin Reinhart skates. He has pro scouts one of who should have been all over that. In fact, I have been assured the person who had that job at the time of the trade was going Colton Parayko every time he got a chance. I gather Griffin’s foot speed issue came up but was shot down. His history of back problems also got thrown in the mix. One dissenting voice even wanted to keep the picks – Mac T as it happens.

    This all happened over and incredibly short space of time after Plan A fell apart.

    Had I been in the room I would have added other options – trading up as it happens. The math liked it. But none of us where there and he went, as I said, with the consensus. But enter Keith Gretzky stage left as a result.

    I can’t believe how hard it is to shatter the myth of the visionary alpha leader. People want strong leaders but isn’t optimal in some settings and where integrated big data management is being implemented Alpha leaders can be a problem. Peter Chiarelli isn’t that guy in any case. What he was in Boston, what he is in Edmonton is a guy who plays referee and supports his team – have you ever heard him bad mouth the people who were involved in the Reinhart deal or even Todd McLellan for that matter?

    We are coming into an era of collaborative management where refereeing and smoothing ruffled feathers will be really important. The next Oilers GM and I think every NHL GM is going to have to get their coaching staff, their trainers, their sports doctors, their team psychologists, their scouts, their analytics people, their lawyers, their AGMs, and their business people (yes the business people) all working together in an integrated whole. While being bombarded by a daily tidal wave of data and opinions.The GM will be leading a team of stubborn, difficult, bright, creative people. Most of who have oppositional defiance disorder. All while players and agents throw hissy fits and attempt to game the system. The behavior that got Peter Chiarelli in trouble in the Reinhart trade is the exact model a new generation GM will be following.

    By the way, Tyler and I have had some epic fights and moments of complete agreement and I think he is a genius, but he was a very poor fit for Edmonton’s analytics team under Peter Chiarelli based on what we know about the way analytics entered the conversation in Boston. And how it was used. It was a trust relationship built up over time and one brick at a time within the staff and sold to Peter as I have heard it, by the hockey people not the nerds. Again, he trusted the hockey people who worked for him to know if the stats made sense – sadly that is probably exactly what has lead to the misuse of stats (good stats being used in the service of existing opinions rather than smarter decision making) in his current regime. I am betting it improves radically with Ken Hitchcock in the mix a guy who apparently goes where the stats lead.

  2. Dustylegnd says:

    VOR: People say we wouldn’t have drafted Barzal then insist on using the fact we didn’t draft Barzal to criticize Peter Chiarelli for the Reinhart trade.

    It was a bad trade and many people called it right at the time it happened. But lets try to stop using Barzal in our critiques. No source has ever suggested he was on the Oilers radar.

    I propose the following be adopted as the players we are using.

    “I would have rather seen the picks made, that’s for sure. I think the Oilers might have drafted Evgeni Svechnikov and Travis Dermott and for me that has more value moving forward than Griffin Reinhart…”

    So henceforth on this site we will use Evgeni Svechnikov and Travis Dermott for Griffin Reinhart. Still a mistake but hardly the end of the world.

    us
    Why these two players? Because I am quoting our host, LT in his own words.

    Yes all agree that our scouting staff didn’t have Barzal as their man, Stauffer has indicated on multiple occasions it was Joel Erickson EK which seems very much like the type of player the old guard scouts would have chosen.

    What is even more brilliant is that Barzal, Connor, and Chabot went in successive order at 16, 17, 18 and none of them were our radar….all three look to be exceptionally promising NHL players….which is an even more damning conviction of that scouting staff

  3. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965: I love Stevie Y. I think a smart team would offer him $10 mill a year because he is likely worth more than any single player on any single team. But what has he done that’s disruptive? I see a guy who does the same thing other GMs do, but he’s just much better at it. And he seems to have a very good grasp on all aspects of the job, not like Chia, who is good at some things and awful at others.

    SY is a product of his environment. I’m not sure he’s smarter, but is a good evaluator of talent. That came from success on a team that had to look outside of the box because draft position and valued effectiveness and applied skill above all else.

    I do think a mix of players is needed because playoffs are very different from reg season, you need players that can play through abuse and obstruction and get the job done both ways.Too light or too heavy/ slow no good.

  4. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer: The problem is the players hate Talbot and play like crap in front of him.

    I detect sarcasm here, but I think there is a psychological issue there. All those first-shot goals… as LT says, sooner or later, you develop a past.

  5. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Time to think outside the box.What could Leon Draisaitl bring back in a trade?

    Trading their best players isn’t outside the box for EDM

  6. Glovjuice says:

    Dustylegnd:
    I stated yesterday that Hitch does not have a magic wand, he is an excellent coach and his record speaks for itself, but he has a shit ton of work in front of him

    Or D corps is deeply flawed, we do not have a true number 1 and we do not have a true number 2 then we have 4 number 5-6 D men……there are no exceptional passers and Nurse can transport the puck when not completely overwhelmed by the other teams fore check

    We have 0 natural goal scorers, yes Connor may get 50…but the way he does it is very different frmo pure goal scorers like Ovie or Laine…..or the better version of Stammer…our secondary scoring is 100% a heater by a career journey man shooting 40%…..Puke

    Larsson looked horrific last night……2 god awful pinches and a good number of 2 on 1’s while he was lost in the neutral zone….it would seem he is not particularly well suited to the system Hitch wants him to play….Lordy

    No only do we not have puck moving D men…..our D serves no useful purpose on the PP

    Last night was an other worldly performance by Connor that was pissed away by his mates….Leon was lost out there….I will assume the flu or maybe just a bad night….it happens

    We have no second line…period, it is a black hole of agony

    Our 4 million dollar starter has lost his mind…he is not in a good place….we send goalers away and then they play better, I have to assume that our team is particularly difficult to play behind and that our Goalie coach is pure junk….what else could it be??????????????

    Good lord I feel for McDavid……what a waste of talent

    Black hole of agony- that’s hot.

  7. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Catching some NYI , Eberle is a good 20 goal guy, but man is he poor at the details of the game still. If I could make Eberle for Larsson happen in my time machine I’d be a happy Oilers fan.

  8. hunter1909 says:

    VOR: And by the way it isn’t his job to go and check and see how fast Griffin Reinhart skates. He has pro scouts one of who should have been all over that.

    Brilliant thinking(in a laboratory).

    Unfortunately, the real world doesn’t work that way.

    What you’re advocating is blind faith in an unproven theory.

  9. jtblack says:

    VOR: But did you immediately after the trade and before history told us the winners and losers?

    I assume you are being sarcastic but none the less hindsight bias is real. And frequently leads to a misunderstanding of past mistakes or successes and thus to failures in the future.

    If you are deciding on whether to fire Chiarelli or not based on the Reinhart trade you have to go with what he knew at the time of the decision and not what we know now.

    Here is my recollection in real time.

    I knew we were getting McDavid at #1 I had heard it was a very deep / high end draft. I follow the WHL close.

    Swear on Grandpa’s grave I wanted Barzal. Barzal was ranked #5 – #9 by 90% of Analysts. I did not know how quickly Barzal would do well in the NHL, but he had the pedigree and kept developing well.

    What I wanted, was to trade #33 & try to grab Ilya Samsonov (goalie).

    Thats the truth. I can also tell you I was pissed when the trade went down, in real time. I felt that 2015 had the chance to be a Franchise changer And it did. whether or not the Oiler scouts would have got it right, we will never know.

    For the record; 2019 is suppossed to be a good draft also. So if PC trades our 1st this year, I will be pissed, in real time.

  10. digger50 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Catching some NYI , Eberle is a good 20 goal guy, but man is he poor at the details of the game still. If I could make Eberle for Larsson happen in my time machine I’d be a happy Oilersfan.

    What about Eberle for Hamonic?

    My Position has always been that both Strome and Hamonic were available and the Oilers targeted the wrong one.

  11. Scungilli Slushy says:

    russ99: Watch the Bob Green video again. The old boy Oil King insider formation was strong with this and Chia was on the job weeks saddled with the previous management as scouts and advisors.

    “I know what he brings,” said Oilers Director of Player Personnel and former Oil Kings General Manager Bob Green. “I know what he brought in junior. He played one year pro, he’s got developing to do but Griffin is a winner. He’s got elite hockey sense, he’s 6-foot-4, he’s a defenceman and we need defencemen. He won a Memorial Cup Championship, he was the captain. He would have taken us there, I believe, when he was 18 but he got injured in the Conference Final that year. We took Portland to six games and maybe we could have won that series if we had him in the lineup. Did he struggle this year in the American League? I guess he did. But I believe in Griffin as a player and I think he’s going to be just fine.”

    Lots to blame Chia on, but that one didn’t come from him.

    That’s my take as well.

    The thing I don’t get is the cost. Trade for him sure, but why so much? What do failing 4 OVs fetch? Certainly not that for GMs with a brain. I could see the 2nd. Maybe.

    Which makes me think there was a mandate and perhaps NYI was aware somehow and extorted.

    It seems the really bizarre and inexplicable trades have abated thank goodness. Gutting pillaging really bad team wrecking deals.

  12. JimmyV1965 says:

    drglen:
    Reinhardt was out in every critical situation duting the oil kings run. He was rod langway like.That inflated oyr opinion of him beyond objective measures

    To be fair, at the time of the trade Islanders bloggers already knew Reinhardt was a bust. Chia would have known about his development implosion even with some cursory research.

  13. pts2pndr says:

    russ99: Watch the Bob Green video again. The old boy Oil King insider formation was strong with this and Chia was on the job weeks saddled with the previous management as scouts and advisors.

    “I know what he brings,” said Oilers Director of Player Personnel and former Oil Kings General Manager Bob Green. “I know what he brought in junior. He played one year pro, he’s got developing to do but Griffin is a winner. He’s got elite hockey sense, he’s 6-foot-4, he’s a defenceman and we need defencemen. He won a Memorial Cup Championship, he was the captain. He would have taken us there, I believe, when he was 18 but he got injured in the Conference Final that year. We took Portland to six games and maybe we could have won that series if we had him in the lineup. Did he struggle this year in the American League? I guess he did. But I believe in Griffin as a player and I think he’s going to be just fine.”

    Lots to blame Chia on, but that one didn’t come from him.

    Thank you! 100 percent correct!

  14. ArmchairGM says:

    oilersfan:
    i must say that i love the Hitch hiring.

    I am not sure how many of you here are Eskimos fans, but in 2013 Kavis Reed coached the esks to a 3-15 record. Maybe it was 4-14 i am not 100 per cent sure.

    The next year Chris Jones came in as head coach. They changed 3 starters on the entire team, that’s 3 out of 24. One was an allstart corner, the others just ok. He changed the systems around. They lost their home opener in Fort McMurray to a week Toronto team and Mike Reilly got injured..they had to play the next 8 games without their all star qb…they changed the defensive systems and it took a few weeks to get going but with only a 15% roster turnover and without their starting all star qb for 9 games ended the season 12-6. 12-6!!!

    I think Hitch is about to re-do here what he did in St. Louis. He went there and they were 6-7 and ended the season i believe around 25 games over.500. He is going to fix this team and we are going to make the playoffs. I only hope they can convince him to stay for another season or two. He said it took a week or two to change the systems and thats what we are seeing here.

    That 2011 St. Louis team didnt have a single player with over 60 points but finished with more than 100 points. Hitch will fix this team, just you all watch. he is the NHL’s version of Chris Jones. It takes afew weeks but the team wont even look the same.

    Interesting comparison. And I agree with giving Hitchcock another couple of weeks before any sort of judgment can be made – it’s way, way too early to say whether his systems will be more or less effective than McLellan’s. Patience people.

  15. VOR says:

    leadfarmer: The problem with that is if you are picking the guy that’s 23th on McKenzies list like Erickson Ek or 18th like Svechnikov over the guy ranked 9th overall you better be right
    There was a lot of us that knew this was the deepest draft since 2003.Boston came drunk to the draft.And then Chia went full Chia

    Can you please define for me in what way it was deep?

    I assume what you mean is that like 2003 there was some very high end talent (like Hall of Fame talent, 10 and 10+), far more than in a typical draft. This is unequivocally true. But the consensus rankings did a weirdly poor job of predicting where it was to be found.

    I urge anybody who thinks it was deep in overall talent to try redrafting it and see how many players you can convince yourself there are from the draft who are really good professional players (7,8 and 9). Then check out some of the other legendary drafts. I think you won’t be quite so convinced that it was a deep draft.

    My key point being is that the draft picks wouldn’t necessarily (hindsight apart) have been automatic slam dunks. There were pit falls everywhere Evgeny Svechnnikov just being one of many.

    Hindsight is rapidly creating narratives that color rational attempts to discuss Peter Chiarelli.

  16. jtblack says:

    leadfarmer: The problem with that is if you are picking the guy that’s 23th on McKenzies list like Erickson Ek or 18th like Svechnikov over the guy ranked 9th overall you better be right
    There was a lot of us that knew this was the deepest draft since 2003.Boston came drunk to the draft.And then Chia went full Chia

    +1.

  17. drglen says:

    JimmyV1965: To be fair, at the time of the trade Islanders bloggers already knew Reinhardt was a bust. Chia would have known about his development implosion even with some cursory research.

    interesting. So, he went ‘with his gut’ , was pressured, or…. I think just looked at the oilers D and looked at Reinhardts ‘calm under pressure’ and poise, first hand, … and honestly thought that would transfer to the NHL.

    I know I did.

    But, … I probably would not have traded down and given up advantageous and options to pick up something I hoped would work, based on my gut.

    funny game. He was toast of the town during the 2016 run, and all those trades save Eberle were already done. it’s like your own children throwing you out of your house.

    But, it’s a job. He’s paid well. ( I assume) He’s a GM in the best league in the world, playing with big dollars, travelling all over, smoking cigars ( or.. he could) I don’t feel sorry for him one bit. Fire him already. Let’s get this over with and man the decks. To much fricking wasted time. Grab some balls oilers, make the change.

  18. Scungilli Slushy says:

    digger50: What about Eberle for Hamonic?

    My Position has always been that both Strome and Hamonic were available and the Oilers targeted the wrong one.

    Hamonic would have been ok if Hall was kept.

    I think Larsson is an under appreciated player, but he isn’t a unique player and his skills are available for less.

    The hardest thing to replace is elite hockey sense. Hall has issues but how do you replace what he does especially at 6M.

    Eberle is ok, but Caggiula or JP can do what he does if given 82 with a good centre and allowed to also bleed.

    This is why trading Leon is self foot shooting. He also has issues but is young and what are the chances you trade and get a better player. Slim IMO.

    Keepers

    McDavid
    Draisaitl
    Larsson
    Bouchard

    Probably
    Nuge
    JP – potential

    I’d trade anyone else for the right return.

    I don’t think JP will necessarily be better than Yama at this point, but at this point if I had to bet JPs tool kit speaks to a higher ceiling.

  19. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Trading their best players isn’t outside the box for EDM

    +1000

  20. jtblack says:

    VOR: Can you please define for me in what way it was deep?

    I assume what you mean is that like 2003 there was some very high end talent (like Hall of Fame talent, 10 and 10+), far more than in a typical draft. This is unequivocally true. But the consensus rankings did a weirdly poor job of predicting where it was to be found.

    I urge anybody who thinks it was deep in overall talent to try redrafting it and see how many players you can convince yourself there are from the draft who are really good professional players (7,8 and 9). Then check out some of the other legendary drafts. I think you won’t be quite so convinced that it was a deep draft.

    My key point being is that the draft picks wouldn’t necessarily (hindsight apart) have been automatic slam dunks. There were pit falls everywhere Evgeny Svechnnikov just being one of many.

    Hindsight is rapidly creating narratives that color rational attempts to discuss Peter Chiarelli.

    First, we all have to agree that “Not all cookies taste the same”.

    Some drafts are better than others. 2015 was considered better due to the high end talent available after the Lottery picks. I would argue that “Hindsight” shows the Analysts UNDER ESTIMATED how good the talent was.

    You have the #1, #3, #4 scorers in the League. 5 out of the Top 20 scorers are from that draft.

    That draft has produced the best player in hockey (he has lived up to the hype).

    Eichel – Captain and unreal.
    Strome – miss
    Marner – better than expected
    Hanifin, Werenski, Provorov – all unreal D men
    some.misses ..
    Rantanen – Leads league in scoring
    Barzal –
    Connor
    Chabot
    Samsonov ( supposed to be tracking well for a G)
    Boeser
    Konecny
    Roslovic

    Aho
    Carlo

    ….. we are only 3 years removed. This draft will still round out more players from later rounds

  21. hunter1909 says:

    VOR: Hindsight is rapidly creating narratives that color rational attempts to discuss Peter Chiarelli.

    Peter Chiarelli becomes General Manager, trades for player but the fans are expected to be enlightened and understand that he doesn’t have the power to make his own trades.

    On the other hand, he’s the General Manager, and the fans are also expected to respect this fact. Only the most enlightened fans are able to sufficiently grasp the innate duality of this position.

    In Layman’s terms, this is called: “A hiding to nowhere”.

  22. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack: Here is my recollection in real time.

    I knew we were getting McDavid at #1 I had heard it was a very deep / high end draft. I follow the WHL close.

    Swear on Grandpa’s grave I wanted Barzal. Barzal was ranked #5 – #9 by 90% of Analysts.I did not know how quickly Barzal would do well in the NHL, but he had the pedigree and kept developing well.

    What I wanted, was to trade #33 & try to grab Ilya Samsonov (goalie).

    Thats the truth. I can also tell you I was pissed when the trade went down, in real time.I felt that 2015 had the chance to be a Franchise changer And it did. whether or not the Oiler scouts would have got it right, we will never know.

    For the record; 2019 is suppossed to be a good draft also. So if PC trades our 1st this year, I will be pissed, in real time.

    Agreed. Firsts are life blood for a maturing roster. Only for a young significant piece, the type rarely traded by teams other than ours.

  23. jtblack says:

    VOR: Can you please define for me in what way it was deep?

    I assume what you mean is that like 2003 there was some very high end talent (like Hall of Fame talent, 10 and 10+), far more than in a typical draft. This is unequivocally true. But the consensus rankings did a weirdly poor job of predicting where it was to be found.

    I urge anybody who thinks it was deep in overall talent to try redrafting it and see how many players you can convince yourself there are from the draft who are really good professional players (7,8 and 9). Then check out some of the other legendary drafts. I think you won’t be quite so convinced that it was a deep draft.

    My key point being is that the draft picks wouldn’t necessarily (hindsight apart) have been automatic slam dunks. There were pit falls everywhere Evgeny Svechnnikov just being one of many.

    Hindsight is rapidly creating narratives that color rational attempts to discuss Peter Chiarelli.

    VOR what was your analysis heading into the 2015 draft?

    & what do you think of 2019?

  24. jtblack says:

    Switching gears:

    Matthew Savoie – Could become the 1st player granted Exceptional Status in the WHL.

    He has 22-26-48 in 20 games in the CSSHL Miget Prep Division. That is 13 more than 1st overall pick from last year – Dylan Guenther.

    Last I heard, he was going to play out this season and then his parents, himself and the WHL were going to assess if the Status should be Granted

  25. drglen says:

    Didn’t harmonic have some kind of family/children issue… and Calgary was a better fit? I think so, and this is really important. Access to resources, specialists, and assistance programs, even family support, when you are away so much, … vital considerations.

    Again, just conjecture and vaguely remembered rumors, .. but I don’t think Hamonic was ever coming here because of family considerations ( not because of the oilers or PC didn’t try hard enough, etc.)

    Love to have him though. Seriously, Hes the one guy, even with this existing line up, that could maybe have pushed us over.

  26. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’m not sure where I heard this today, it might have been LTs show actually, but someone suggested we trade Talbot for Simmonds. Would solve problems for both teams. Both are UFAs. Might not be enough for Philly though.

  27. jtblack says:

    Vor:
    Dermott scored from Marner tonight

    MARNER 3 Assists. Tied with McDavid for 3rd in League

    *ducks*

  28. Professor Q says:

    jtblack:
    Switching gears:

    Matthew Savoie – Could become the 1st player granted Exceptional Status in the WHL.

    He has 22-26-48 in 20 games in the CSSHL Miget Prep Division.That is 13 more than 1st overall pick from last year – Dylan Guenther.

    Last I heard, he was going to play out this season and then his parents, himself and the WHL were going to assess if the Status should be Granted

    And isn’t it weird with the WHL as they draft players a year younger than do the OHL and the Q? The CHL rules signify an Exceptional Player to be 15, and there is no current designation for a 14 year old.

    As an aside,Tyler Benson was considered for Exceptional Status back in the day, and likely would have been granted it if he hadn’t decided to do the Kelowna Pursuit of Excellence. He would have been 15 for the majority of that season, however, so I’m still unsure about the differences between the leagues.

  29. jtblack says:

    Professor Q: And isn’t it weird with the WHL as they draft players a year younger than do the OHl and the Q? The CHL rules signify an Exceptional Player to be 15, and there is no designation for a 14 year old.

    As an aside,Tyler Benson was considered for Exceptional Status back in the day.

    Benson still holds the Alberta AAA Bantam record for points. !!

  30. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I’m not sure where I heard this today, it might have been LTs show actually, but someone suggested we trade Talbot for Simmonds. Would solve problems for both teams. Both are UFAs.Might not be enough for Philly though.

    I’d rather try to trade Talbot for Gudas, and get a stop gap fix for the defense.

  31. ArmchairGM says:

    russ99: Watch the Bob Green video again. The old boy Oil King insider formation was strong with this and Chia was on the job weeks saddled with the previous management as scouts and advisors.

    “I know what he brings,” said Oilers Director of Player Personnel and former Oil Kings General Manager Bob Green. “I know what he brought in junior. He played one year pro, he’s got developing to do but Griffin is a winner. He’s got elite hockey sense, he’s 6-foot-4, he’s a defenceman and we need defencemen. He won a Memorial Cup Championship, he was the captain. He would have taken us there, I believe, when he was 18 but he got injured in the Conference Final that year. We took Portland to six games and maybe we could have won that series if we had him in the lineup. Did he struggle this year in the American League? I guess he did. But I believe in Griffin as a player and I think he’s going to be just fine.”

    Lots to blame Chia on, but that one didn’t come from him.

    Wrong. Chia held final say, and Chai decided the price to pay. Regardless of how Reinhart turned out, 1st+2nd was way more than any 2nd pairing AHL defender was worth.

  32. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    VOR: It is precisely because of how the Griffin Reinhart trade happened that I want Peter Chiarelli. He trusted what the people underneath him wanted to do. I have been told he listened to dissenting voices and then went with the majority and the seniority which given he didn’t know the people in the room very well was about the only option he had. He didn’t make the Griffin Reinhart decision in a void, he took advice, he decided what advice to listen to and even in that by many accounts he had co-deciders.

    And by the way it isn’t his job to go and check and see how fast Griffin Reinhart skates. He has pro scouts one of who should have been all over that. In fact, I have been assured the person who had that job at the time of the trade was going Colton Parayko every time he got a chance. I gather Griffin’s foot speed issue came up but was shot down. His history of back problems also got thrown in the mix. One dissenting voice even wanted to keep the picks – Mac T as it happens.

    This all happened over and incredibly short space of time after Plan A fell apart.

    Had I been in the room I would have added other options – trading up as it happens. The math liked it. But none of us where there and he went, as I said, with the consensus. But enter Keith Gretzky stage left as a result.

    I can’t believe how hard it is to shatter the myth of the visionary alpha leader. People want strong leaders but isn’t optimal in some settings and where integrated big data management is being implemented Alpha leaders can be a problem. Peter Chiarelli isn’t that guy in any case. What he was in Boston, what he is in Edmonton is a guy who plays referee and supports his team – have you ever heard him bad mouth the people who were involved in the Reinhart deal or even Todd McLellan for that matter?

    We are coming into an era of collaborative management where refereeing and smoothing ruffled feathers will be really important. The next Oilers GM and I think every NHL GM is going to have to get their coaching staff, their trainers, their sports doctors, their team psychologists, their scouts, their analytics people, their lawyers, their AGMs, and their business people (yes the business people) all working together in an integrated whole. While being bombarded by a daily tidal wave of data and opinions.The GM will be leading a team of stubborn, difficult, bright, creative people. Most of who have oppositional defiance disorder. All while players and agents throw hissy fits and attempt to game the system. The behavior that got Peter Chiarelli in trouble in the Reinhart trade is the exact model a new generation GM will be following.

    By the way, Tyler and I have had some epic fights and moments of complete agreement and I think heis a genius, but he was a very poor fit for Edmonton’s analytics team under Peter Chiarelli based on what we know about the way analytics entered the conversation in Boston. And how it was used. It was a trust relationship built up over time and one brick at a time within the staff and sold to Peter as I have heard it, by the hockey people not the nerds. Again, he trusted the hockey people who worked for him to know if the stats made sense – sadly that is probably exactly what has lead to the misuse of stats (good stats being used in the service of existing opinions rather than smarter decision making) in his current regime. I am betting it improves radically with Ken Hitchcock in the mix a guy who apparently goes where the stats lead.

    Excellent post. Thank you.

  33. leadfarmer says:

    VOR: Can you please define for me in what way it was deep?

    I assume what you mean is that like 2003 there was some very high end talent (like Hall of Fame talent, 10 and 10+), far more than in a typical draft. This is unequivocally true. But the consensus rankings did a weirdly poor job of predicting where it was to be found.

    I urge anybody who thinks it was deep in overall talent to try redrafting it and see how many players you can convince yourself there are from the draft who are really good professional players (7,8 and 9). Then check out some of the other legendary drafts. I think you won’t be quite so convinced that it was a deep draft.

    My key point being is that the draft picks wouldn’t necessarily (hindsight apart) have been automatic slam dunks. There were pit falls everywhere Evgeny Svechnnikov just being one of many.

    Hindsight is rapidly creating narratives that color rational attempts to discuss Peter Chiarelli.

    The draft had two extremely high end players and a high long tail. We were looking at players skill level with our pick that in some drafts you see in the bottom of top 10. And then Boston came drunk to the show. Yes a lot of picks failed miserably but that’s what happens when you draft kids. But the chance of getting an elite player in this draft in middle of first round was considered much higher than normal. There was a lot of people drooling about that draft
    Here’s one
    https://milehighsticking.com/2015/05/19/nhl-draft-depth-2015-vs-2003/

    Hindsight is not creating anything. Go back to the comments on draft day. That trade was a disaster then. Bob McKenzie has Barzal in top 10. Why were the Oilers thinking they knew better? I’m sure it was something dumb like he reminded us of Nuge and we had Nuge already
    Here’s Bob McKenzie saying that there isn’t much separating 6-11
    https://www.tsn.ca/draft-mystery-and-intrigue-starts-after-eichel-1.300623
    So why did we think we were smarter than the consensus
    It reminds me of the Canucks blogger experiment of a potato outdrafting the Canucks scouting department a few years back.
    So yes we could have drafted the player and failed miserably. But the bigger question is why were we looking at the consensus #23 guy when the #9 guy is on the board and 12, 13, 15 too. Boston thought they were smarter than everyone and didn’t work out great for them either

  34. VOR says:

    jtblack: VORwhat was your analysis heading into the 2015 draft?

    & what do you think of 2019?

    In the interest of full disclosure I picked 2003 as great though it has never quite lived up to my expectations which were very high. I thought 2011 was crap piled on crap but it hasn’t turned out that way. I missed that while severely lacking in gold it was filled with silver and a bit of vanadium. I thought 2015 was going to be large veins of gold and deep in other precious metals. Believe it or not, like 2003 it is disappointing me.

    It is easy to argue that Kyle Brodziak belongs in the top 30 in any re-draft of 2003 and Lee Stempniak in the top 20. The two guys have pretty much had the careers I projected but I though they would both end up much lower in terms of redraft 61 for Stempniak and 66 for Brodziak as I recall. A lot of players I projected big things for never even played in the NHL. Others found all manner of creative ways to shoot themselves in the foot.

    My modelling is consistently over estimating the 6-8 level players – the players who should make up 16-47 in the draft and despite adjustment after adjustment it continues to do so. It must be some bias I hold deeply.

    In 2015 I didn’t get Barzal (underestimate) but otherwise my misses were over estimates.

    Now keeping in mind my obvious bias and lack of success I think 2019 will be one of the greatest drafts in NHL history and possibly the most critical to get right in more than a decade for the Oilers. Right up there with 79 and 03 (huge hit and serious missed opportunity) in terms of importance to the team. I have it going as high end as 2015 and as deep as 2011. I actually think there is a good chance it will come to be known as the greatest draft of all time.

  35. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    If Chias advisors keep giving him this level of information it may be time for new advisors. He’s lost a lot of trades involving very high end talent
    Organizational leaders are very reliant on who works under them. Pick good people they look great. Pick bad people you look terrible. It is actually the most important job for a leader of an organization to pick competent people that they trust, and then they pick competent people that they trust and so on

  36. drglen says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I’m not sure where I heard this today, it might have been LTs show actually, but someone suggested we trade Talbot for Simmonds. Would solve problems for both teams. Both are UFAs.Might not be enough for Philly though.

    probably just talking shop. But, yes good trade. Sweeten it .. out of curiousity, would we add Khaira, ? I think that’s too much, but I’d send spooner or marody.

    They were talking about talbots perceived value as ‘still being high’ out there. I don’t think so really.

  37. franksterra says:

    JimmyV1965,

    A few weeks ago on this blog I floated tabs and nurse for gudas and Simmonds, give or take sweeteners.

  38. digger50 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Hamonic would have been ok if Hall was kept.

    I think Larsson is an under appreciated player, but he isn’t a unique player and his skills are available for less.

    The hardest thing to replace is elite hockey sense. Hall has issues but how do you replace what he does especially at 6M.

    Eberle is ok, but Caggiula or JP can do what he does if given 82 with a good centre and allowed to also bleed.

    This is why trading Leon is self foot shooting. He also has issues but is young and what are the chances you trade and get a better player. Slim IMO.

    Keepers

    McDavid
    Draisaitl
    Larsson
    Bouchard

    Probably
    Nuge
    JP – potential

    I’d trade anyone else for the right return.

    I don’t think JP will necessarily be better than Yama at this point, but at this point if I had to bet JPs tool kit speaks to a higher ceiling.

    Yes but we did trade Hall. And then the club decided Eberle was moving. We know talks were taking place, and the club was also overly focused on replacing Wberle on the wing and his 20 goals.

    Once again they set their sights on the acquisition with only wishful thinking as evidence that Strome could fill the role. Peter gets tunnel vision.

    Someone just posted Hamonic was not coming to Edmonton, I don’t know.But I do know he was available – yet not considered by Peter.

    Hamonic went on to have a poor year so little attention was paid.

  39. jtblack says:

    VOR,

    “In 2015 I didn’t get Barzal (underestimate) but otherwise my misses were over estimates.”

    Thx for the honesty.
    Not sure how you Over Estimated some of these guys, they have delivered sky high results. but I digress ..

    I Have been following 2019 close. Like 2015 or 2003, there are Legitimate talents that will be around in the #10 -#20 range; major Impact players. Also some excellent talent at #20- #30.

    So IMO ; PC should keep his top 2019 picks and maybe even add 1 or 2 @ the deadline if edm is out of it.

  40. drglen says:

    franksterra:
    JimmyV1965,

    A few weeks ago on this blog I floated tabs and nurse for gudas and Simmonds, give or take sweeteners.

    Yep could fly… many folks see Nurse as untouchable with this massive high end ceiling potential… and I was one of those guys ,,, until this recent stretch… or since the Winnipeg game really. I don’t think I’d trade nurse, but, I”m saying he is tradeable now.

  41. digger50 says:

    The other big miss that I have in my Peter evaluation columns is the exapansion draft. Some might say he navigated through it and only lost Rienhart. That was the result of doing literally nothing. Nothing.

    There were players changing teams. Defenceman to be had left and right yet Zpeter was not on on any of them. Why? He stated the D were not good enough then just worked the edges of the roster again. Ended up with Russel.

    I have that summer as a big miss in regards to opportunity lost.

  42. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Hey everyone. I have not been on this site since the season because, well we all know. Another terrible season, looking at a lottery draft, lowered expectatioms etc etc.

    Anyway I’m not here now to whine about the season! I’m just reaching out. I just booked a solo ticket for Oilers vs Tampa Bay December 22. I’ll be in town visiting my 96 year old dad. Thought I might check out the arena (and the team…)

    Anyone here also going to be at the game? Wouldn’t mind putting faces to names for folks here since I’m all the way in Ontario & couldn’t participate in any meet ups before.

    As an aside, saw Vegas – Flames last Friday afternoon. Awesome show, super fun & the Flames lost – so win win – except for you know I was in Vegas and you don’t typically leave with the monies you came with.

    I’m interested to see how a “Canadian arena” compares to US game.

    LT, as long as it’s ok, can I list an outside email here or would you prefer not?

    I’ll wait & check back. So far this year I have avoided the Oilers since my aging heart is less capable of withstanding the wrenching nowadays..

    All the best everyone in their fantastic community.

  43. franksterra says:

    drglen,

    I picked those players because the money is an exact wash and the contract statuses (statii?) are almost. Improves RW scoring and ‘hunkers down’ the D a bit, even if only for the rest of the year. But leaves all our picks and prospects untouched. Keep them and build from within 100%, or use for a deadline move.

    Yes I am hopeful we can be in a position to add at the deadline…

  44. Scungilli Slushy says:

    franksterra:
    JimmyV1965,

    A few weeks ago on this blog I floated tabs and nurse for gudas and Simmonds, give or take sweeteners.

    Too old the both. Short term win long term loss.

  45. franksterra says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Worried about missing out on Nurse’s high end potential down the road?

  46. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer: The draft had two extremely high end players and a high long tail.We were looking at players skill level with our pick that in some drafts you see in the bottom of top 10.And then Boston came drunk to the show.Yes a lot of picks failed miserably but that’s what happens when you draft kids.But the chance of getting an elite player in this draft in middle of first round was considered much higher than normal.There was a lot of people drooling about that draft
    Here’s one
    https://milehighsticking.com/2015/05/19/nhl-draft-depth-2015-vs-2003/

    Hindsight is not creating anything.Go back to the comments on draft day.That trade was a disaster then.Bob McKenzie has Barzal in top 10.Why were the Oilers thinking they knew better?I’m sure it was something dumb like he reminded us of Nuge and we had Nuge already
    Here’s Bob McKenzie saying that there isn’t much separating 6-11
    https://www.tsn.ca/draft-mystery-and-intrigue-starts-after-eichel-1.300623
    So why did we think we were smarter than the consensus
    It reminds me of the Canucks blogger experiment of a potato outdrafting the Canucks scouting department a few years back.
    So yes we could have drafted the player and failed miserably.But the bigger question is why were we looking at the consensus #23 guy when the #9 guy is on the board and 12, 13, 15 too.Boston thought they were smarter than everyone and didn’t work out great for them either

    Top of the draft you could just do Bob’s list. It’s the later picks scouting can make a small difference. Small because the odds are so low to begin with.

  47. Jaxon says:

    Glovjuice: dustrock:
    I get that Rieder is hurt and Strome was no picnic, but the Spooner for Strome trade looks like another backfire by Chiarelli.

    This team has generally sucked since that trade.

    I’m sure it’s just coincidental but it would be easier to convince me if Spooner brought anything at all.

    Real talk: can you not see Benson being a better option than Spooner in the lineup right now?

    I’m not sayin just sayin

    That trade is absolutely horrendous. Said the first or second day. Why in hell would you trade a decent right shot centre for a left shot winger who is small, and as it turns out, slower (speed AND decision making). This trade should make Chia embarrassed to leave his office.

    Re: Spooner vs Strome. Gorton, the real architect of the Bruins’ Stanley Cup beats Chiarelli again. Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Gorton had a big hand in drafting Krecji and Bergeron, in sighing Thomas as Assistant GM (GM Mike O’Connell said so), then as interim GM for 3.5 months, he drafted Kessel, Marchand, Lucic, traded for Rask, and signed Savard and Chara before handing the reigns over to Chiarelli. Gorton built the core in Boston. Chiarelli’s biggest add: Horton who got injured and didn’t play the whole playoffs. Did Chara sign because of Chiarelli? Maybe, but Chiarelli didn’t sign him and wasn’t even allowed to talk to Chara about it.

    Chiarelli fires Gorton as Assistant GM one year later, then Sather hires Gorton as a pro scout. Chiarelli procedes to run Boston into cap troubles. When Sather vacates GM position he promotes Gorton to GM on July 1, 2015.

    in 2017, Gorton drafted #7 C Lias Andersson & #21 C Filip Chytil
    in 2018, with many picks, Gorton drafted #9 RW Vitali Kravtsov, #22 D K’Andre Miller, #28 D Nils Lundkvist, #39 G Olof Lindbom, #70 D Jacob Ragnarsson – all players who I thought were severely underrated in the draft lists.
    6 picks in the top 40 in the last two drafts. They’ll either have two 1st round picks or two 2nd round picks in 2019 9depending on whether Tampa wins the Cup or not)

    I really like his drafting.

    I think Gorton could see Chiarelli coming from a mile away. Strome > Spooner. Gorton knows it. Also, Strome is being used as a RW already.

  48. Buddy says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Time to think outside the box.What could Leon Draisaitl bring back in a trade?

    For Chiarelli? Cap room.

  49. Scungilli Slushy says:

    franksterra:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Worried about missing out on Nurse’s high end potential down the road?

    No I don’t see him being much different than he is because age. Top players emerge early.

    But he can be a helpful player and lack of offense should mean he is not expensive but then Oilers. I do know Simmonds and Gudas are not going to be effective as long as Nurse and any decisions have to be on maximizing Connor’s time.

    For a young LW or strong goalie say Jarry or the like yes. To fill a long term need. They aren’t winning the Cup this year and Cups are a long shot at best anyways.

    A lot has to go right including a hot goalie and health.

  50. Jaxon says:

    jtblack: Benson still holds the Alberta AAA Bantam record for points. !!

    He broke teammate Ty Rattie’s record.

  51. Glovjuice says:

    Ryan: It was relatively simple calamity of errors, each one of which was not catastrophic but the combination very much so.

    1. Trade Hall for Larson
    2. Reinhart trade
    3. Misfire on selecting #4
    4. Looch and Russell contracts. $10 m in space misused.

    Imagine a scenario in which we could eliminate any one of this errors.

    If we had $10 m in cap space this past offseason, that would have gave us room to maneuver and wheel and deal or add talent via free agency.

    If we had Barzal (I know we wouldn’t have drafted him), our top six forward depth would be more thanserviceable

    If we had selected Tkachuk (and never mind Debrincat too), we’d be a lot further ahead.

    If we hadn’t traded Hall, then as a consequence it would have prevented us from signing Looch, so that’s an added bonus. Our blue line would be poor (is anyway), but we’d have two line drivers in our top six.

    For a GM to make all of these errors in succession, it’s a train wreck.

    As the cool kids say: “This”.

  52. VOR says:

    jtblack:
    VOR,

    “In 2015 I didn’t get Barzal (underestimate) but otherwise my misses were over estimates.”

    Thx for the honesty.
    Not sure how you Over Estimated some of these guys, they have delivered sky high results.but I digress ..

    I Have been following 2019 close. Like 2015 or 2003, there are Legitimate talents that will be around in the #10 -#20 range; major Impact players. Also some excellent talent at #20- #30.

    So IMO ; PC should keep his top 2019 picks and maybe even add 1 or 2 @ the deadline if edm is out of it.

    I think Chia should be stocking up as well.

    I had Jake Debrusk as a PPG player. I thought Zboril would be on his way to multiple Norris trophies. I had Chabot as the second coming of Paul Coffey. And I had Crouse as a great 3rd line checker. Among other misses.

    My problem with Barzal by the way, and it continues to be, is that if he isn’t sheltered he is a liability. Now maybe he is early Joe Sakic but wow is he terrible defensively now that he is facing the other team’s best players.

  53. Lowetide says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour:
    Hey everyone. I have not been on this site since the season because, well we all know. Another terrible season, looking at a lottery draft, lowered expectatioms etc etc.

    Anyway I’m not here now to whine about the season! I’m just reaching out. I just booked a solo ticket for Oilers vs Tampa Bay December 22. I’ll be in town visiting my 96 year old dad. Thought I might check out the arena (and the team…)

    Anyone here also going to be at the game? Wouldn’t mind putting faces to names for folks here since I’m all the way in Ontario & couldn’t participate in any meet ups before.

    As an aside, saw Vegas – Flames last Friday afternoon. Awesome show, super fun & the Flames lost – so win win – except for you know I was in Vegas and you don’t typically leave with the monies you came with.

    I’m interested to see how a “Canadian arena” compares to US game.

    LT, as long as it’s ok, can I list an outside email here or would you prefer not?

    I’ll wait & check back. So far this year I have avoided the Oilers since my aging heart is less capable of withstanding the wrenching nowadays..

    All the best everyone in their fantastic community.

    Sure, probably want to delete after a few days.

  54. Glovjuice says:

    VOR: But did you immediately after the trade and before history told us the winners and losers?

    I assume you are being sarcastic but none the less hindsight bias is real. And frequently leads to a misunderstanding of past mistakes or successes and thus to failures in the future.

    If you are deciding on whether to fire Chiarelli or not based on the Reinhart trade you have to go with what he knew at the time of the decision and not what we know now.

    That draft was known to be very deep. Everyone agreed. 16 and 33 were awful for – at the time a failing AHL player – was terrible.

  55. franksterra says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    I pretty much agree with your second para. Simmonds and gudas will soon contribute less than nurse because age

    but where we differ is that I think a roster improvement for this year does matter, even if cup is not in the convo. It’s very subjective but getting closer to balance with a scoring winger and an RD will help player development for the rest of the roster. I’m not so high on nurse I guess. Philly probably needs to add a pick/prospect anyway – more kicks at the can for us.

  56. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Glovjuice: As the cool kids say: “This”.

    – The reason Chia is still GM, is becasue Nicholson has kept track of everything

    1) Chia didn’t like the result of the Griff move: he goes out and revamps scouting

    2) Chia didn’t like the results coming out of the farm: he revamps the AHL

    3) Chia didn’t like the development of players at NHL level: he gets a coach that he thinks well

    – The scouting, the AHL, and coaching were all a mess. He’s made an impact on them, and Hitch is buying him more time

    – A GM doesn’t make a trade in a vacuum: the organization tells him that Griff is good, or Strome cn replace Ebs, or that Larsson is a stud RHD

    – I think some in here believe that the GM, covertly, secretly rings up New Jersey, and as a rogue actor, on his own, announces to the organization: “you’ll never believe the deal I made”

    – Chia is still the GM because he’s made improvements where time has allowed for development, and someone further up the food chain knows why all the decisions that matter were made (read what VOR wrote, or use common-sense)…

    – That’s a sign of a better organization

    – And I wish the team was a lot better right now, and regardless of above, if Chia doesn’t make the playoffs, it will be with extreme prejudice that he is able to finish out his contract

  57. Jaxon says:

    Ryan: 1. Trade Hall for Larson
    2. Reinhart trade
    3. Misfire on selecting #4
    4. Looch and Russell contracts. $10 m in space misused.

    I’d change
    3. Trade Eberle for Strome.

    I’m not sure many disagreed on draft day about drafting Puljujarvi, or at least they agreed it was a toss-up. I liked Puljujarvi and Dubois on draft day. He was consensus #3. So calling it a misfire isn’t really fair. practically the whole scouting community misfired on that one.

    This would be insane:
    Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi
    Hall – Draisaitl – Eberle

  58. ArmchairGM says:

    VOR: it isn’t his job to go and check and see how fast Griffin Reinhart skates. He has pro scouts one of who should have been all over that.

    It IS his job to pay the correct price. He paid “1st pairing NHL d-man” price for a 2nd pairing AHL guy. That’s entirely on him.

  59. HT Joe says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: GM doesn’t make a trade in a vacuum

    Are you taunting everyone by mentioning GM trades and vacuums (which by definition suck) in the same sentence? 🙂

  60. Pescador says:

    fishman:
    Last night was depressing! Think I may need to go cold turkey from the Oilers for a while. The roster appears woefully inadequate and the cap situation means there is no quick fix. Well at least the weather in Mesa today in the 70’s!!

    Try going Wild Turkey before you go cold Turkey,

  61. Glovjuice says:

    YKOil: It isn’t a matter of what he knew, it’s a matter of what he didn’t bother to find out (ex. Reinhart is slowfooted and slow on making decisions) and what he didn’t bother to recognize (ex. 2015 was a very deep draft year, that he had 11 or so years of McDavid ahead of him and had time to build a team, that Reinhart was relatively far down the Isles own list of d-men prospects).NOT trading for Reinhart was, by far, the smarter thing to do.There isn’t even a learning curve aspect to that.It was stupid then, stupid before then and stupid after then.It was NEVER a good thing to do.EVER.

    Not everything the Oilers do is shit.Fine.Point understood.

    That PC is the guy to lead the team?Not drinking your kool-aid.

    PC is not a visionary just paying his dues until the accessibility and use of big data finally catches up to his awesomeness and everything just magically falls into place.

    Hell, one of the first thing those asshats did was get rid of Dellow and barring Dellow getting on here and saying he was in favour of trading for Reinhart, trading Hall away and that signing Lucic was a smart move, I don’t believe he was in favour of any of things.And yeah, while I recognize that he, and any of us, may not be up there with the luminaries you hobnob with, it doesn’t take a big data disciple to point out that picking up a declining asset for 7 years at $6 million a year, with a NMC for five of those years, and a buy-out circumventing salary structureis unwise at best, and more probably, just f&*king stupid.

    Bring in all the big data guys you want.I believe in most of the potential it, big data, is purported to have.But PC is not the one to steer that ship.

    Finally, odds are just as good that the devil is laughing because he wins either way, just as easy to let you think he’ll keep that promise and watch you suffer every year waiting for the pay-off.he is the devil after all.

    Gorgeous post.

  62. Pescador says:

    Jaxon: I’d change
    3. Trade Eberle for Strome.

    I’m not sure many disagreed on draft day about drafting Puljujarvi, or at least they agreed it was a toss-up. I liked Puljujarvi and Dubois on draft day. He was consensus #3. So calling it a misfire isn’t really fair. practically the whole scouting community misfired on that one.

    This would be insane:
    Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi
    Hall – Draisaitl – Eberle

    Also, it’s not over yet.
    Too early to call BgZza a bust IMO

  63. Dustylegnd says:

    Glovjuice,

    I concur, that is a beautiful post by YKOil

    Maybe ChiaPete is the devil…after all the devil’s greatest trick is making us believe he never existed

  64. Glovjuice says:

    hunter1909: You talk like a neo-con who seriously believes the Afghan army is going to go out and kick the Taliban’s ass…whereas before you said the same thing about the South Vietnamese Army…as if systems and theories are superior to old fashioned values.

    In short you sit in a tower and deign to play with the peasantry, which is fine and well unless you’re dealing with fanatics like Oiler fans. You’re simply trolling. On an epic scale, but you’re trolling.

    Yikes

  65. JimmyV1965 says:

    drglen: probably just talking shop.But, yes good trade. Sweeten it .. out of curiousity, would we add Khaira, ?I think that’s too much, but I’d send spooner ormarody.

    They were talking about talbots perceived value as ‘still being high’ out there.I don’t think so really.

    Trading Talbot is an interesting proposition. There are a few teams that can use a goaltender, but should we trade him while we still have slim hopes at the playoffs? Not sure. I could go either way. I think his value would be fairly high. I can’t think of a better trade option out there right now who is considered better than Talbot. I think his contract status actually helps his trade value. Teams can walk away if they want.

  66. hunter1909 says:

    Glovjuice: Yikes

    Forget it. Blowing rhetorical hot air. VOR has been outstanding tonight.

  67. JimmyV1965 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – The reason Chia is still GM, is becasue Nicholson has kepttrack of everything

    1) Chia didn’t like the result of the Griff move: he goes out and revamps scouting

    2) Chia didn’t like the results coming out of the farm: he revamps the AHL

    3) Chia didn’t like the development of players at NHL level: he gets a coach that he thinks well

    – The scouting, the AHL, and coaching were all a mess.He’s made an impact on them, and Hitch is buying him more time

    – A GM doesn’t make a trade in a vacuum: the organization tells him that Griff is good, or Strome cn replace Ebs, or that Larsson is a stud RHD

    – I think some in here believe that the GM, covertly, secretly rings up New Jersey, and as a rogue actor, on his own, announces to the organization: “you’ll never believe the deal I made”

    – Chia is still the GM because he’s made improvements where time has allowed for development, and someone further up the food chain knows why all the decisions that matter were made (read what VOR wrote, or use common-sense)…

    – That’s a sign of a better organization

    – And I wish the team was a lot better right now, and regardless of above, if Chia doesn’t make the playoffs, it will be with extreme prejudice that he is able to finish out his contract

    I too think it’s important to recognize Chia’s positive contributions. He has drafted much better than any Oiler GM in two decades. His successor will inherit a much better roster and farm system, something that you can actually build upon. Chia inherited garbage, on a he roster and in the farm system. However, he has crippled the team with bad contracts and bad trades. It will take two more years to dig out from the mess he has left here.

  68. Ryan says:

    Jaxon: I’d change
    3. Trade Eberle for Strome.

    I’m not sure many disagreed on draft day about drafting Puljujarvi, or at least they agreed it was a toss-up. I liked Puljujarvi and Dubois on draft day. He was consensus #3. So calling it a misfire isn’t really fair. practically the whole scouting community misfired on that one.

    This would be insane:
    Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi
    Hall – Draisaitl – Eberle

    I do not believe that I was being unfair in calling that selection a misfire. The book isn’t yet written about JP. However, Rishaug was interviewed by Gregor today around 5:30. Rishaug did say that they brought him up because they need help now. He also said that they might grown impatient with his floundering and there could be a market elsewhere for JP which in turn would get the Oilers help now. We all know of this phenomenon called ten cents on the dollar.

    As for my characterization, I didn’t say that the Oilers went walkabout or off board on draft day. JP was indeed considered the consensus bpa when Columbus skipped over him. For a lottery pick forward in his draft plus three season, there are concerns.

  69. VOR says:

    hunter1909: You talk like a neo-con who seriously believes the Afghan army is going to go out and kick the Taliban’s ass…whereas before you said the same thing about the South Vietnamese Army…as if systems and theories are superior to old fashioned values.

    In short you sit in a tower and deign to play with the peasantry, which is fine and well unless you’re dealing with fanatics like Oiler fans. You’re simply trolling. On an epic scale, but you’re trolling.

    I am not trolling. I am merely contrarian by nature. 40 years of teaching and coaching using the Socratic method has reinforced that.

    On top of which I am unbelievably curious.

    For example, I want to know, on the day of the draft, knowing only what was known that day, who should the Oilers have drafted?

    I know who I was hoping they would draft, Thomas Chabot. I would have taken him over Matthew Barzal (and still would). But who should have the Oilers have taken?

    It is easy to default in questions like this to authority – “Bob says”. The Socratic method of course discourages appeals to authority.

    My interest in Chabot came out of having seen him play a few games. He could do things at speed I haven’t seen done by any defenceman of any age since Paul Coffey.

    Additionally, we’d just drafted McDavid and had RNH, with Draisaitl likely to be a center some day. Was there room at the inn for another center, especially one with defensive challenges? I didn’t think so and I didn’t think Chiarelli’s verbal indicated much support for smaller players so even after Barzal fell I wanted Chabot. But was that the correct decision based on the evidence available that day?

    I work in a field, modelling, where honestly everything is expressed as a probability and nothing is certain.

    All of which is why when I hear people being certain and proving themselves right with appeals to authority my Socratic thumbs start to itch. Just to gain some peace of mind I have to poke a pompous or two. My tongue is usually quite firmly in cheek but you can’t do the whole Socratic thing without being a little impish.

    So trolling, no. Deliberately being sand in the oyster, absolutely. I am, however, trying to stop short of a hemlock solution.

  70. YKOil says:

    Glovjuice: That draft was known to be very deep. Everyone agreed. 16 and 33 were awful for – at the time a failing AHL player – was terrible.

    It is practically impossible to get past this simple point. the 16th, all on its lonesome, would have been an overpay. A 2nd rounder and a 4th? I could have seen past that. Would not have liked it tbh but I could see it. A 1st and a 2nd though… that is ‘on-a-whole-other-planet’ level of bullshit there.

    I said it a long time ago and I will say it again now, PC’s biggest issues comprise:

    – he gets into trouble any time he thinks he “has” to do something because he “has” to do something; and
    – every other GM out there worth their salt knows it

  71. Ryan says:

    VOR: It is precisely because of how the Griffin Reinhart trade happened that I want Peter Chiarelli. He trusted what the people underneath him wanted to do. I have been told he listened to dissenting voices and then went with the majority and the seniority which given he didn’t know the people in the room very well was about the only option he had. He didn’t make the Griffin Reinhart decision in a void, he took advice, he decided what advice to listen to and even in that by many accounts he had co-deciders.

    And by the way it isn’t his job to go and check and see how fast Griffin Reinhart skates. He has pro scouts one of who should have been all over that. In fact, I have been assured the person who had that job at the time of the trade was going Colton Parayko every time he got a chance. I gather Griffin’s foot speed issue came up but was shot down. His history of back problems also got thrown in the mix. One dissenting voice even wanted to keep the picks – Mac T as it happens.

    This all happened over and incredibly short space of time after Plan A fell apart.

    Had I been in the room I would have added other options – trading up as it happens. The math liked it. But none of us where there and he went, as I said, with the consensus. But enter Keith Gretzky stage left as a result.

    I can’t believe how hard it is to shatter the myth of the visionary alpha leader. People want strong leaders but isn’t optimal in some settings and where integrated big data management is being implemented Alpha leaders can be a problem. Peter Chiarelli isn’t that guy in any case. What he was in Boston, what he is in Edmonton is a guy who plays referee and supports his team – have you ever heard him bad mouth the people who were involved in the Reinhart deal or even Todd McLellan for that matter?

    We are coming into an era of collaborative management where refereeing and smoothing ruffled feathers will be really important. The next Oilers GM and I think every NHL GM is going to have to get their coaching staff, their trainers, their sports doctors, their team psychologists, their scouts, their analytics people, their lawyers, their AGMs, and their business people (yes the business people) all working together in an integrated whole. While being bombarded by a daily tidal wave of data and opinions.The GM will be leading a team of stubborn, difficult, bright, creative people. Most of who have oppositional defiance disorder. All while players and agents throw hissy fits and attempt to game the system. The behavior that got Peter Chiarelli in trouble in the Reinhart trade is the exact model a new generation GM will be following.

    By the way, Tyler and I have had some epic fights and moments of complete agreement and I think heis a genius, but he was a very poor fit for Edmonton’s analytics team under Peter Chiarelli based on what we know about the way analytics entered the conversation in Boston. And how it was used. It was a trust relationship built up over time and one brick at a time within the staff and sold to Peter as I have heard it, by the hockey people not the nerds. Again, he trusted the hockey people who worked for him to know if the stats made sense – sadly that is probably exactly what has lead to the misuse of stats (good stats being used in the service of existing opinions rather than smarter decision making) in his current regime. I am betting it improves radically with Ken Hitchcock in the mix a guy who apparently goes where the stats lead.

    There’s plenty to unpack here.

    You’re promulgating some pretty deep level intel about the Reinhart trade that I have not seen disseminated elsewhere.

    I had felt that Chiarelli had a pained and uncomfortable expression when the trade was announced on the draft floor.

  72. Lowetide says:

    VOR: When discussing recent drafts, we often show our work. By that I mean, we link to the spot where (in this case the 2015 draft) we prove our claim of Chabot being the target. I have no reason to doubt you, but it’s a gentlemanly way to backup the verbal. For instance, I had Barzal No. 8. Did you publish a list? Would love to see it. Here’s mine:

    https://lowetide.ca/2015/06/26/here-comes-the-sun-2/

    I think your thoughts would be more credible if we could prove you did in fact believe that in 2015, as opposed to framing the issue for the sake of argument at this time.

  73. VOR says:

    YKOil: It is practically impossible to get past this simple point.the 16th, all on its lonesome, would have been an overpay.A 2nd rounder and a 4th? I could have seen past that.Would not have liked it tbh but I could see it.A 1st and a 2nd though… that is ‘on-a-whole-other-planet’ level of bullshit there.

    I said it a long time ago and I will say it again now, PC’s biggest issues comprise:

    – he gets into trouble any time he thinks he “has” to do something because he “has” to do something; and
    – every other GM out there worth their salt knows it

    And here is the problem in a nutshell. Before and during the draft what we know is the average return on a 16th and a 33rd. Only in hindsight do we know the value in this specific case.

    The average return on a 16th and a 33rd is far, far less than you are all assuming. Try guessing (or better yet calculate) how many games, goals, assists, and points an average 16 and 33rd OV produce over the course of their careers. That is what was traded to acquire Griffin Reinhart.

    You think Barzal and Carlo and site that as proof that the deal was disastrous but those players hadn’t been picked at the time of trade. More to the point the trade itself changed who was picked. And how their careers are playing out – there is no proof offered that Matthew Barzal would have done as well with the Oilers and a number of reasons to doubt it as a case in point.

    Then you use this hindsight driven analysis to decide how well Peter Chiarelli does his job.

  74. Ryan says:

    Glovjuice: That draft was known to be very deep. Everyone agreed. 16 and 33 were awful for – at the time a failing AHL player – was terrible.

    I refer you to the link: https://lowetide.ca/2015/06/26/oilers-trade-no-16-for-griffin-reinhart/comment-page-1/#comments

    First comment:

    YOUNGER OILsays:
    June 26, 2015 at 6:52 pm
    This is fucking awful. I’m shaking right now I’m so angry.

    Next:

    SERUM114says:
    June 26, 2015 at 6:53 pm
    Wretched

    YOUNGER OILsays:
    June 26, 2015 at 6:54 pm
    There were at least 5 prospects on the board at #16 BETTER than Reinhart, let alone give up the #33 for him as well. Just awful.
    We hoped for the best…

    SERUM114says:
    June 26, 2015 at 6:55 pm
    Barzal is the new Parise for Oilers fans

    BENsays:
    June 26, 2015 at 6:57 pm
    OOOOOOFFFFF.
    Jason Gregor ‏@JasonGregor 2m2 minutes ago
    The Flames gave up #15, #45 and #52 for Dougie Hamilton.
    The Oilers gave up #16 and #33 for Griffin Reinhart.

    VISUALLY BETTERsays:
    June 26, 2015 at 6:57 pm
    Fuck me

    RYANsays:
    June 26, 2015 at 7:39 pm
    G Money,
    I am afraid the Islanders didn’t trade us Pietrangelo for #16 and #33…
    The 2012 was a very weak draft year.
    Lindholm in hindsight looks to be the pick of the litter for dmen from that draft year.
    Snow realized he made a mistake with Reinhart and cut bait. Plain and simple. The Islanders didn’t trade him because of cap issues or too much depth at d.

    CHAMUCKSsays:
    June 26, 2015 at 7:42 pm
    Ryan,
    If it wasn’t Barzal on the board I wouldn’t be near as pissed.

    RYAN says:
    June 26, 2015 at 7:42 pm
    Acumen:
    G Money,
    This is an overpay all on its own, and a bad fit, and an organizational redundancy, and the purging of assets we could use to acquire the things we actually need, like a goalie or an actual NHL defenseman.
    There is no reasonable positive spin on this.
    This.

    G MONEYsays:
    June 26, 2015 at 7:44 pm
    Ryan,
    You’re repeating what others have said. It’s a bad trade because Reinhart is bad.
    Yet it contradicts everything I can find about Reinhart. I haven’t found a single bad thing written about him yet – other than in the comments section of this blog.
    So again – where’s the backup? What do people on this blog actually know about Reinhart that seemingly the scouts out there do not?

    RYAN says:
    June 26, 2015 at 7:58 pm
    G Money:
    Ryan,
    You’re repeating what others have said.It’s a bad trade because Reinhart is bad.
    Yet it contradicts everything I can find about Reinhart.I haven’t found a single bad thing written about him yet – other than in the comments section of this blog.
    So again – where’s the backup?What do people on this blog actually know about Reinhart that seemingly the scouts out there do not?
    Well, how do you value defensive defensemen?
    I don’t rate them very high myself so there’s no need to bust out the abacus.
    We’re not talking about Pietrangelo, Doughty, Karlsson, or Keith…
    He’s a left shot dman without offense who’s still unproven at the NHL level.
    He’s been passed like a house on the side of the road by others in his draft year…
    His offense has flagged from his draft year as well.
    In terms of organizational need, I wouldn’t rate left -shot, unproven defensive dman with flagging offense as a priority.
    I could be wrong, but he has declining asset written all over him

    rickithebear:
    Rule 1 for me is. Do not use pp pts to evaluate d.
    Cause you spend lots of extra money for no major goal for diffrence.
    So i have allways beat the drum.
    Box protection.
    Long arms and stick to break up lane.
    Strong transition stride.
    Tight corner turn.
    Good outlet pass.
    My overall choice on a d has changed since 2012.
    Corsi for is driven by transition to forwards.
    Corsi against by Chiarelli and my belief.
    D pressure: blocks: forced misses.
    Griffin rheinhardt ticks all the boxes

  75. Jaxon says:

    One thing we should remember about the 2015 draft is that Chiarelli fired his head scout and two amateur scouts just 5 days before the draft. That seems a bit boneheaded right off the bat.

  76. drglen says:

    Do you think the oilers had a shot at this hoffman fellow?

    Seems he can shoot the puck.

  77. Ryan says:

    Jaxon:
    One thing we should remember about the 2015 draft is that Chiarelli fired his head scout and two amateur scouts just 5 days before the draft. That seems a bit boneheaded right off the bat.

    I’ll break the purported 15 minute rule.

    Whatever happened to the poster, “YoungerOil?”

    He was awesome. I almost wondered if that poster was Hall. Can’t remember why I had that feeling.

  78. Ryan says:

    VOR: And here is the problem in a nutshell. Before and during the draft what we know is the average return on a 16th and a 33rd. Only in hindsight do we know the value in this specific case.

    The average return on a 16th and a 33rd is far, far less than you are all assuming. Try guessing (or better yet calculate) how many games, goals, assists, and points an average 16 and 33rd OV produce over the course of their careers. That is what was traded to acquire Griffin Reinhart.

    You think Barzal and Carlo and site that as proof that the deal was disastrous but those players hadn’t been picked at the time of trade. More to the point the trade itself changed who was picked. And how their careers are playing out – there is no proof offered that Matthew Barzal would have done as well with the Oilers and a number of reasons to doubt it as a case in point.

    Then you use this hindsight driven analysis to decide how well Peter Chiarelli does his job.

    I appreciate your vigorous defense against revisionist history.

    This is not the case. We were there. I did not notice your comment in that thread. Please correct me if I missed it.

  79. drglen says:

    Another thought. Gm aliances.

    Gms in 3 or 4 divisions who makes buys and trades and exchange info to help their allies. Im just wondering becausee nobody seems to offer pc anything useful.
    Resources of value (true nhl top 6 ) seem so scarce. I wonder sometimes. Probably illegal.

    But imagine three teams whos roster farm and drafting are all actually working for tbe same pseudo boss. To help all their interests.

    I dont think the oilers have any friends

    Winnipeg seems to be extremely well managed from the outside looking in

  80. Jaxon says:

    https://lowetide.ca/2015/06/26/oilers-at-no-1-connor-mcdavid/comment-page-2/#comments

    This is fun to read… many were shouting (CAPS) BARZAL! as the Bruins picked way off the board and laughing at the Bruins saying they’re the new Edmonton. Everyone is very excited about getting Barzal (mostly), Connor, or Svechnikov. Then the trade happens and everyone is scrambling wondering WTF just happened and trying to either placate themselves that it’s not so bad, but #16 AND #33. What!?!? Many were very disappointed and that it took the shine of McDavid day. Barzal seemed to be the consensus from Lowetide readers.

  81. Jaxon says:

    Ryan: I do not believe that I was being unfair in calling that selection a misfire. The book isn’t yet written about JP. However, Rishaug was interviewed by Gregor today around 5:30. Rishaug did say that they brought him up because they need help now. He also said that they might grown impatient with his floundering and there could be a market elsewhere for JP which in turn would get the Oilers help now. We all know of this phenomenon called ten cents on the dollar.

    As for my characterization, I didn’t say that the Oilers went walkabout or off board on draft day. JP was indeed considered the consensus bpa when Columbus skipped over him. For a lottery pick forward in his draft plus three season, there are concerns.

    Fair enough. I still think there is a chance that JP ends up better than Dubois and Tkachuk. His CF% and GF% are among the best on the team with Draisaitl and McDavid so I’m not exactly sure what the issue is. I know he looks a bit awkward and loopy out there but the numbers say he is contributing with skilled players more than anyone else. Other rookies around the NHL have been given plum skill line spots and the pressure to be perfect right away isn’t there and they flourish. I’m not sure they’ve really given Puljujarvi a real chance, yet.

  82. Jethro Tull says:

    VOR: I am not trolling. I am merely contrarian by nature. 40 years of teaching and coaching using the Socratic method has reinforced that.

    On top of which I am unbelievably curious.

    For example, I want to know, on the day of the draft, knowing only what was known that day, who should the Oilers have drafted?

    I know who I was hoping they would draft, Thomas Chabot. I would have taken him over Matthew Barzal (and still would). But who should have the Oilers have taken?

    It is easy to default in questions like this to authority – “Bob says”. The Socratic method of course discourages appeals to authority.

    My interest in Chabot came out of having seen him play a few games. He could do things at speed I haven’t seen done by any defenceman of any age since Paul Coffey.

    Additionally, we’d just drafted McDavid and had RNH, with Draisaitl likely to be a center some day. Was there room at the inn for another center, especially one with defensive challenges? I didn’t think so and I didn’t think Chiarelli’s verbal indicated much support for smaller players so even after Barzal fell I wanted Chabot. But was that the correct decision based on the evidence available that day?

    I work in a field, modelling, where honestly everything is expressed as a probability and nothing is certain.

    All of which is why when I hear people being certain and proving themselves right with appeals to authority my Socratic thumbs start to itch. Just to gain some peace of mind I have to poke a pompous or two. My tongue is usually quite firmly in cheek but you can’t do the whole Socratic thing without being a little impish.

    So trolling, no. Deliberately being sand in the oyster, absolutely. I am, however, trying to stop short of a hemlock solution.

    Don’t mean to pick holes, but if you deal in uncertainty, then sophistry is what you need.

  83. Professor Q says:

    “Blackhawks hoping Strome and DeBrincat rekindle junior chemistry”

    Why, oh why, would the Oilers not think this also, instead of Benson, the local boy?

  84. YKOil says:

    VOR: And here is the problem in a nutshell. Before and during the draft what we know is the average return on a 16th and a 33rd. Only in hindsight do we know the value in this specific case.

    The average return on a 16th and a 33rd is far, far less than you are all assuming. Try guessing (or better yet calculate) how many games, goals, assists, and points an average 16 and 33rd OV produce over the course of their careers. That is what was traded to acquire Griffin Reinhart.

    You think Barzal and Carlo and site that as proof that the deal was disastrous but those players hadn’t been picked at the time of trade. More to the point the trade itself changed who was picked. And how their careers are playing out – there is no proof offered that Matthew Barzal would have done as well with the Oilers and a number of reasons to doubt it as a case in point.

    Then you use this hindsight driven analysis to decide how well Peter Chiarelli does his job.

    Well, for one, I did not mention Barzal and Carlo, I stuck with the picks. You, however, felt free to assign them to me.

    Hindsight has nothing to do with the read on Reinhart the day of the draft – he was a ‘b’-to-‘c’ level prospect with ‘a’ level pedigree who played a defense-first game on the left side (of which we had lots) and was not known for his speed, puck control, or passing ability.

    – so, not only did he NOT fill a position of any immediate need, he also didn’t fill any needs related to ‘possible’ required skill sets to play with a guy like McDavid (who, even back then, you know you ideally pair with d-men who can pass)

    Hindsight has nothing to do with knowing the draft was deep in talent; which typically means the tier bandwidths are wider which typically means the chance to find real value after the top-5 picks is greatly enhanced. And hindsight has nothing to do with knowing that two high-slot lotto picks in such a draft is incredibly valuable.

    You say, “The average return on a 16th and a 33rd is far, far less than you are all assuming. Try guessing (or better yet calculate) how many games, goals, assists, and points an average 16 and 33rd OV produce over the course of their careers. That is what was traded to acquire Griffin Reinhart.”

    I say, “The average return on a ‘b’-to-‘c’ level defensive defenseman prospect is far, far less than you are assuming. Try guessing (or better yet calculate) how many games, goals, assists, and points an average ‘b’-to-‘c’ level defensive defenseman prospect produce over the course of their careers. That is what we acquired with Griffin Reinhart.”

    Methinks the draft picks return greater value. Just guessing.

    This is basic risk management VOR. A topic I have always spoken re: the Oilers and the moves they make. It is what made the Lucic signing so egregious – the signing was iffy at the best of times but the salary structure and NMC put ALL the risk on the team. No hindsight needed.

    Finally, as Lowetide and others here can attest, I have actually put in the work (in the past) when it comes to the draft. My work was pretty basic – aggregated value lists* augmented with two versions of tier(ing) and a rule of thumb to use when doing comparatives between picks – but it looks like, in hindsight (which I will NOW use), it may have been a better risk management tool (from the ‘step-back-and-take-another-look’ tree) than anything the Oilers were using in 2015.

    * Did this long before it was popular (may have been the earliest blogger, on NHL teams, to do this in fact) and when I go back and read what I wrote, it still holds up pretty well.

  85. Genjutsu says:

    I think it’s too early to judge the 2015 draft. Wait five years then wait one more. Our host taught me that rule and it’s a good one to use as a line in the sand.

    That being said the early returns on the first round and early second are astonishing imo.

    The later rounds usually take years to develope so we won’t have a real sense of the depth for a few years.

    I think it’s hard to argue that this team wouldn’t be a cup threat right now if you added Aho and Boeser and subtracted Khaira.

  86. Glovjuice says:

    JimmyV1965: I too think it’s important to recognize Chia’s positive contributions. He has drafted much better than any Oiler GM in two decades.His successor will inherit a much better roster and farm system, something that you can actually build upon. Chia inherited garbage, on a he roster and in the farm system.However, he has crippled the team with bad contracts and bad trades. It will take two more years to dig out from the mess he has left here.

    He inherited 97. Nuge. Leon. Hall. 16 and 33. klef. nurse.

  87. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack: Benson still holds the Alberta AAA Bantam record for points. !!

    Pretend sure Kirby Dach smoked that record. I’d have to look it up tho…

  88. drglen says:

    Edmonton journal ,projecting” alex on top line. Jp on nuges line with drake. Pizza line intact. Then spooner khaira and rattie.

    Benning in with gravel

  89. Glovjuice says:

    Jaxon:
    https://lowetide.ca/2015/06/26/oilers-at-no-1-connor-mcdavid/comment-page-2/#comments

    This is fun to read… many were shouting (CAPS) BARZAL! as the Bruins picked way off the board and laughing at the Bruins saying they’re the new Edmonton. Everyone is very excited about getting Barzal (mostly), Connor, or Svechnikov. Then the trade happens and everyone is scrambling wondering WTF just happened and trying to either placate themselves that it’s not so bad, but #16 AND #33. What!?!? Many were very disappointed and that it took the shine of McDavid day. Barzal seemed to be the consensus from Lowetide readers.

    Ya, for such a brilliant person VOR is WAY off on this one.

  90. russ99 says:

    Professor Q:
    “Blackhawks hoping Strome and DeBrincat rekindle junior chemistry”

    Why, oh why, would the Oilers not think this also, instead of Benson, the local boy?

    Everyone in the league is laughing at this, a bad trade for a failed prospect to try and rekindle something in the OHL that’s not repeatable in the NHL.

    Getting two players on a line who were at the top of a thin age group in junior is not reflective of their success in a men’s league when many players are as good or better than you.

    As bad as Chia has been, Bowman has been worse.

  91. russ99 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – The reason Chia is still GM, is becasue Nicholson has kepttrack of everything

    1) Chia didn’t like the result of the Griff move: he goes out and revamps scouting

    2) Chia didn’t like the results coming out of the farm: he revamps the AHL

    3) Chia didn’t like the development of players at NHL level: he gets a coach that he thinks well

    – The scouting, the AHL, and coaching were all a mess.He’s made an impact on them, and Hitch is buying him more time

    – A GM doesn’t make a trade in a vacuum: the organization tells him that Griff is good, or Strome cn replace Ebs, or that Larsson is a stud RHD

    – I think some in here believe that the GM, covertly, secretly rings up New Jersey, and as a rogue actor, on his own, announces to the organization: “you’ll never believe the deal I made”

    – Chia is still the GM because he’s made improvements where time has allowed for development, and someone further up the food chain knows why all the decisions that matter were made (read what VOR wrote, or use common-sense)…

    – That’s a sign of a better organization

    – And I wish the team was a lot better right now, and regardless of above, if Chia doesn’t make the playoffs, it will be with extreme prejudice that he is able to finish out his contract

    If that’s the case, why is he still saddled with MacTavish, Howson, Green, Sutter and Carrierre among others.

    Not to mention that these Katz lifers are directly responsible for the scouting and involved in the decision making for the bad drafts in question and how the AHL system and player development in general was ignored, which is directly the lifers’ responsibilities, check the Oilers site:

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/team/coaches-management

    Good teams have players in the AHL come up and help, our roster weaknesses now are directly due to this not happening, forcing Chia to overpay and overpromise to college players and push kids in too early.

    Again, Chiarelli is the GM and the buck stops at his office, but no GM does it alone. I maintain the scouting and group decisions by the lifers spoiled the data and gave him no chance here.

    Hope the new guy gets to toss the lifers and create his own staff or we’ll be right back here in 3-4 years.

  92. who says:

    digger50: What about Eberle for Hamonic?

    My Position has always been that both Strome and Hamonic were available and the Oilers targeted the wrong one.

    </blockquote
    Obviously Hamonic was available. But not for Eberle. No way. The Oilers were trying to make an Eberle for Hamonic deal even before they traded Hall. Islanders said no. End of story.
    All this talk about who's responsible for the Reinhart trade. I think we are missing the point. The real question was who made the decision that the Oilers had to speed up the rebuild because they drafted McDavid? Was it Chia? Nicholson? Katz? Orr? That's the guy who should shoulder the brunt of the blame.
    The Oilers were sitting pretty with a bunch of good young forwards, They had Klefbom and Nurse in the system and control of McDavid for 7 years. And a bunch of high draft picks in a deep draft. There was no need to rush.

  93. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: Pretend sure Kirby Dach smoked that record. I’d have to look it up tho…

    Dach is 16th in most points in a season:

    https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/ambhl/stats/all-time-season

    Benson 1st, Rattie 2nd.
    Colton Sceviour 4th, Sam Steel 9th, Brayden Point 11th.

    Benson scored at almost 150% the rate of Dach. 146 points to Dach’s 100 points.

  94. Edmonton Oilers: Time to Mortgage Some of the Future? says:

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  95. Time for Oilers to Mortgage Some of the Future? - Barflyer.net says:

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