Grindhouse

The Edmonton Oilers are now 2-1-1 in the team’s first four games with Ken Hitchcock at the helm. Fans are beginning to understand that Hitchcock is hockey for “we’re going to work really hard to limit progress and that’s all the time, no exceptions” every night. Even with the world’s most fantastic hockey player revving his engines, Hitch is just going to make sure all the lights are turned off and the doors are locked. You’ll get used to it. Honest.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: Oilers need a first-shot scoring winger and Ryan Spooner isn’t it. So, what’s next?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What Oilers want to see from top prospects Puljujarvi and Yamamoto
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi to the show, plus the sudden impact of Cam Hebig and Joel Persson.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 Prospect winter 2018: Tyler Benson.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Third line suits the eye of new Oilers coach Ken Hitchcock.
  • Jonathan Willis: Can Ken Hitchcock save Milan Lucic’s Oilers career?
  • Lowetide: A shot in the dark: What are the Oilers getting in Chris Wideman?
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 2 Prospect winter 2018: Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 1 Prospect winter 2018: Evan Bouchard.

OILERS AFTER 24

  • Oilers in 20158-14-2, 18 points; goal differential -13
  • Oilers in 2016: 12-10-2, 26 points; goal differential +7
  • Oilers in 2017: 9-13-2, 20 points; goal differential -14
  • Oilers in 2018: 11-11-2, 24 points; goal differential -11

Although fans may miss the excitement of the freewheelin’ Edmonton Oilers, the two points in the standings are a lovely consolation prize. The goal differential is still ugly, but another month of Hitchcock and that should be reduced by three or four. The 2018 crew is just two points behind the playoff 2016 roster, likely the most encouraging thing about the Oilers this year.

OILERS IN NOVEMBER

  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, 10 points; goal differential -9
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-6-2, 12 points; goal differential 0
  • Oilers in November 2017: 5-7-1, 11 points; goal differential -3
  • Oilers in November 2018: 5-7-1, 11 points; goal differential -9

These November records are pretty much identical, save the Oilers horrid goal differential this year. One thing that should be mentioned? Edmonton’s empty net goal totals are 2-7, so you could slash five off this year’s number if you wish. Since I didn’t do that for the other seasons, I’ll keep hoeing this row.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

  • At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0-0) Actual (1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Detroit, Washington, Tampa Bay, Florida  (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 1-3-0)
  • At home to: Colorado, Montreal (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Vegas (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: San Jose, Anaheim, Los Angeles (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • At home to: Dallas, Los Angeles  (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games 
  • Current results: 5-7-1, 11 points in 13 games

One more game to go, if Edmonton can win against the Kings on Thursday night the final tally will be a mere four points off my projections. The team record for the year would be 12-11-2, 26 points in 25 games (projects to 85 points, one hot streak from my projected 90-94 points on the year).

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Garrison-Benning were 14-6 in 7:43, 8-4 shots and 2-2 in HDSC. Were 2-2 with 97, 5-3 against Nichuhskin-Faksa-Pitlick. In Hitchcock’s postgame he said they need to play better and more often “with the puck in front of them” in order to get more minutes. I think this area, along with the fourth line, are the vague areas for the coach. Vague is bad, it behooves Benning, Gravel, Garrison and Wideman to get out of vague.
  • Klefbom-Larsson were 21-20 in 20:13, 12-9 shots and 1-6 HDSC. That’s a concern, the top pairing was a little leaky at some important moments in the game. Were 8-9 with McDavid, 0-4 (!!) HDSC. Were 13-13 against Benn-Seguin-Radulov. Hitchcock mentioned the team being tired, the top pair looked that way at times but overall helped the win. Nice to see Oscar score his first goal, on pace for 38 points and that would tie his career high.
  • Nurse-Russell were 14-10 in 17:52, 6-7 shots, 2-2 HDSC. I thought they were good, Dallas had some big men hunting the puck and this duo mostly delivered with and without the puck. Were 7-4 with McDavid, 7-6 without, went 2-8 against Benn-Seguin-Radulov who are one of the best lines in the conference. One play that is a tell about Nurse: Late in the game, he held the puck in his own zone looking for an outlet. Jesse Puljujarvi made a sweeping move to gear up and then offered a quality outlet for Nurse. The defenseman passed on the opportunity, moved right, sent an awkward pass toward Caggiula and received an icing on the play. He needs to recognize the Puljujarvi outlet as being quality, the icing came late in a tie game. Important small item.
  • Mikko Koskinen stopped 27 of 27, many of them difficult. He’s impressive. The save against Benn at the end of regulation was a giant moment, not because of the difficulty of the save, but rather because of the size of the moment. If he lets that in, Oilers fans would have been devastated. Another big win, his .923 SP has him No. 10 among NHL goalies with 10 or more games played this season.
  • NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Khaira-Spooner-Russell were 3-3 in 5:01, were 3-1 against Bayreuther-Polak. Spooner made a nice drive down the left side while Russell drove to the net, missed by not a lot. Spooner had three giveaways, won 63 percent of eight draws. Khaira had a penalty and a giveaway. Russell was the most impressive of the group in my opinion, he had two takeaways and might have scored if the timing had been just a hair better. Hitchcock said he needs to find Spooner a job inside the top 9 forwards, but I’d suggest Spooner needs to be a little more dynamic. He’s a streaky player, needs to get on a roll here.
  • Lucic-Brodziak-Kassian were 14-9 in 11:42, 5-4 shots and Brodziak’s HDSC. I don’t know if they’ll ever score but Hitchcock is relying on this line to keep the puck miles from Koskinen. Went 12-3 against Hanley-Fedun but also 8-5 against the Radulov line. I see a lot of mocking surrounding this line, suggests to me fans don’t appreciate where the puck spends time when they’re on the ice. That’s too bad. As a long-term solution it isn’t going to work (lines need to contribute at least some offense) but this will do as a third line until Hitchcock can figure out a No. 3 line for real.
  • Draisaitl-McDavid-Chiasson went 16-12 in 18:45 (Leon), 12-10 in 13:40 (Chiasson) and 2-1 in 2:04 (Puljujarvi). Chiasson had a couple of brilliant chances, McDavid scored and Leon set up the winner. Not bad for a 1-0 final. Went 9-6 in 11:19, 5-3 shots and 1-3 in HDSC. I felt the entries for this line were a little off, Dallas was standing up well and the Oilers didn’t adjust. McDavid got held a lot too, Seguin and the guy with three names were all over him. Went 9-6 against Heiskanen-Lindell. Hitchcock suggested Chiasson got tired after the first period, might have been a reason we saw Pulju get a couple of minutes. The coach is following through on his promise to get the big Finn some skill minutes.
  • Caggiula-Nuge-Puljujarvi were my favorite line, hard work and some great chances. Nuge had three HDSC’s, man he’s a good player. Went 15-16 in 14:01, 8-9 shots and 2-4 HDSC. Puljujarvi skated the puck out of harm’s way a lot, blocked a big shot, trio going 9-14 against Bayreuther-Polak. I think this might have been JP’s most complete game. Hitchcock’s postgame comments talked about his being quality when the puck is on the move, but impatience being the enemy when the puck is stopped. Interesting insight.

A TRADE

I imagine Ken Hitchcock knows what he needs now, and if the Oilers are serious about the playoffs we could see something shake loose in the coming days. A right-winger who can score goals and play the Hitchkockian style would be the likely target, look for shooting prowess and size with speed. Bill Guerin at 25, that kind of thing.

WHO IS GOING?

What has value? The 2019 first-round pick, young players, Matt Benning, Cam Talbot, Jujhar Khaira. It’s a limited field but there are some attractive assets.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, a fun and busy group. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. Will Oilers fans accept Hitchcock hockey if it means the playoffs? Will we see a trade for a scoring winger?
  • Andrew Peard, Oil Kings PBP. Oil Kings are the most interesting edition of the club since 2014, and Trey Fix-Wolansky is tearing up the blacktop.
  • Jon Campbell, Oddshark. College football bets, the Alliance, Super Bowl favourites.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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279 Responses to "Grindhouse"

« Older Comments
  1. drglen says:

    Rondo:
    Just watching the Leafs, I remember how the Leaf fans were so jealous when Edmonton won the McDavid draft.

    The joke is on the Oilers.

    They were, the fans, and the media especially. The joke is on us this year, but, the leafs are not going to be able to afford half of their team as far as I can tell, at the end of this year. They’d better win the cup this year, because the joke will be back on them next year.

  2. Rondo says:

    True, but they jumped ahead of the Oilers with a good GM and player development. Oilers will and have Cap issues while not making the playoffs.

  3. drglen says:

    Mattaklap: I think that’s what Peter will be going for. To distract us while the Hitchcoach grinds the on-ice product into sand.

    what is it like at the games? Who was at the game, .. was it really boring. No scoring, tight checking, but was it boring? Generally I agree that lack of nice passing plays and creative offense and nice flow skating is absolutely the best hockey, .. but like I say I ended up at Boston Pizza, and my impression was that the fans were actually pretty intriqued with the game, pretty entertained and kind of up beat.

  4. drglen says:

    Rondo:
    True, but they jumped ahead of the Oilers with a good GM and player development. Oilers will have Cap issues while not making the playoffs.

    cant argue that. !

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    oilinthepeg:
    Wondering about the value of Nurse.
    My eyes haven’t seen him great this year. Not 100% sure what the numbers say, but to me, he doesn’t seem to be helping his cause for a big contract.
    I’d love to see him signed for 5 X 2.5M, but does that seem realistic? If you get him for 2.5M does that mean it’s only for a couple of years at a time?
    At what point does everyone realize that he is a 4/5 D and pay him accordingly.
    The Russell contract debacle is an issue, as well…
    At least the MSM talks up Russell as much as Nurse.
    To me, I’d be fine trading him since I just don’t see the ceiling being there.
    If someone like Bouchard can start to help as soon as next year, then that’s a huge deal.
    How much worse will Jones be than Nurse when he is brought in to cover the role? I don’t know.
    Right now, it is great to have talent bubbling under in the A… but I’ll be pretty upset if we continue to give D terrible contracts. I could see Darnell being one of the ones that ends up hurting the team.

    I think he is likely a good teammate and seems to have some heart. I just don’t see performance matching pedigree, and it could be the development/coaching, but could also be that the talent isn’t there. Then again, I also believe that D who leave this team tend to do better wherever they land – as if the coaching/systems have made a difference. It’s really too bad because Darnell is a good player, who may have been stunted by the org.

    Anyways… jusat rambling at this point… but I do think the issue of Nurse is an interesting topic of discussion. Not sold on the player… probably a solid 3rd pairing guy in the league for a lot of years, but doesn’t have enough offensive acumen for the ‘new’ NHL, imo…

    1) Nurse would need to be qualified at $3.2M

    2) Even if there wasn’t a qualifying offer requirement, he wouldn’t sign for anywhere near $2.5M, not on a one year, 3 year, 5 year or 8 year deal

    3) Further to he is with MUCH more than $2.5M, at any term, even if you are right and he’s only a 4/5

    4) I don’t think one can discount (a) having Kris Russell as his partner (who has been better than expected at 2RD but he’s far from a solid option in that spot) and (b) a third pairing all year that can’t really play more than 10-12 minutes putting so much more pressure on the top 4

    5) Further to 4, I think we say last year what happens when he is partnered with a very good 2RD (Adam Larsson) – in fact, that pairing played top pairing minutes/QOC and have a VERY good year last year.

    6) Caleb Jones will likely never reach where Nurse currently is let alone exceed it. The answer to how much worse than Nurse will he be when brought up is – MASSIVELY!

    7) Even if Caleb Jones does reach that level, I can’t imagine its not 3-5 years away.

  6. Scungilli Slushy says:

    drglen: If he stops pucks they won’t trade him.Stop pucks,keep,.. not stop pucks, trade.

    My spidey sense tells me that if that deal was going to happen ( Talbot trade to say Philly) .. then it would have happened today. That’s why I was asking to see if I missed something. So, as to your point, .. I don’t think they want to trade him and I don’t think they will.Like you, they think his numbers and confidence will improve in the new system, … and he’s the best #2 goalie around and may yet be 1a, or 1.

    Somebody runs Koskinen , pulled groin etc, we are screwed. They’re keeping him now. Bank on it. !

    All true. But someone needs to be very cagey to restore some of what has been lost.

    That should be PC as his name is on the dotted line of the bloodbath that robbed the team of hard won talent as Frank S said. This team with Hall and the Reinhart picks on it would be contending right now IMO. I remain unconvinced PC did all of that lunacy on his own dime but until Woodguy spills we’ll never know 😀

    When Hitchcock tightens things up Montoya can backup. The thing is even if they make the playoffs they are unlikely to win the Cup.

    They also shouldn’t resign Talbot at his age after what he’s done here. Unfortunately players usually don’t take big pay hits on the same team. He’ll sign for 2M or less elsewhere, staying on the Oilers he’ll get 5+ and that’s a gigantic problem.

    The key to me ( and yes it’s cold) is to get quality assets for a key position trade to help mitigate the damage of particularly the Hall trade.

    Part of keeping Connor happy is giving him a team he believes in. That he thinks can win it all. Talbot is the obvious pawn in that if he looks better to others after he doesn’t have to face so many team brain farts which is the point of Hitchcock being hired.

    The roster is better (not great) than it was playing and if everyone other than Connor, Nuge and Larsson and maybe Klefbom would stop bleeding Gold Jerry!

  7. JimmyV1965 says:

    drglen: If he stops pucks they won’t trade him.Stop pucks,keep,.. not stop pucks, trade.

    My spidey sense tells me that if that deal was going to happen ( Talbot trade to say Philly) .. then it would have happened today. That’s why I was asking to see if I missed something. So, as to your point, .. I don’t think they want to trade him and I don’t think they will.Like you, they think his numbers and confidence will improve in the new system, … and he’s the best #2 goalie around and may yet be 1a, or 1.

    Somebody runs Koskinen , pulled groin etc, we are screwed. They’re keeping him now. Bank on it. !

    It you’re not going to sign him, you have to trade him. And resigning him would be a huge mistake

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rondo: Chiarelli never had a back-up for Talbot till this year. Just another example in a long list of Chiarelli mistakes.

    So Chiarelli gets criticized for relying on Brossoit as a back-up and, now that he let Brossoit go, he gets criticized for letting him go (due to his great 6 games of numbers in WIN).

    My favorite is when he gets criticized for things that he did (or didn’t do) based on nothing but speculation and rumor – like just a few posts ago, being chastised for wanting to keep Bouchard up and having him be exposed – based on ????????? – kind of goes against Chiarelli’s express verbal (on a few occasions) that the expansion draft was going to be a factor in that decision.

  9. drglen says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I think he’s worth what he’s paid, maybe a bit more. not MUCH more. you look at Russel ( is that 4 million?) and one thinks Nurse has got much more together than Russell, (at least in athletic potential) , but you have to take pause and admit that these errors… the chaos, doesn’t seem to be going away. I’m not sure he is worth more than Russel and Russel might actually be the guy keeping Nurse together.

    Speculation, .. Nurse flourishes with somebody like Larson, .. but again, .. these mistakes he is making, are all on his own. The pattern is now showing that he just does these things because he’s darnell Nurse ( A warrior to be sure) , and not because of who he is with. We’re not being objective here.

    Pure speculation on Caleb Jones.. ? ‘never reach the point.’….. 3 to 5 years away? What are you basing that on. ( I dont’ know much about Jones, don’t watch the Condors games like some of you do.. just basing my opinion on camp, what Paul Coffey said, and various comments in here about Jones basically looking great down there)… So I’m actually genuinely curious .. can you educate me on what makes you doubt Jones so much?

  10. Glovjuice says:

    dustrock:
    Man Bill Guerin.

    Now there was a power winger.

    And sexy also.

  11. drglen says:

    OriginalPouzar: So Chiarelli gets criticized for relying on Brossoit as a back-up and, now that he let Brossoit go, he gets criticized for letting him go (due to his great 6 games of numbers in WIN).

    My favorite is when he gets criticized for things that he did (or didn’t do) based on nothing but speculation and rumor – like just a few posts ago, being chastised for wanting to keep Bouchard up and having him be exposed – based on ????????? – kind of goes against Chiarelli’s express verbal (on a few occasions) that the expansion draft was going to be a factor in that decision.

    yes, well noted. That dig on keeping/not keeping bouchard is a bit lowish. it is not slam dunk that bouchard should be sent down, regardless of what the adamant people are saying. If he actually appeard to be improving the offense, stoking the engine, smart enough and most notably physically strong enough on defense, they would have kept in. If they though he could hang in the bigs and help them win games, they would have kept him. It’s that simple. This whole expansion draft idea… that’s important but a bridge you cross later.. if he makes the lineup on merit and helps you win games ( and ‘not lose’ games) he stays up and you live with the consquences.

  12. texmex says:

    Halfway through the game, STL has 6 shots on goal and trail 3-0 to Detroit.

  13. Reja says:

    Scungilli Slushy: All true. But someone needs to be very cagey to restore some of what has been lost.

    That should be PC as his name is on the dotted line of the bloodbath that robbed the team of hard won talent as Frank S said. This team with Hall and the Reinhart picks on it would be contending right now IMO. I remain unconvinced PC did all of that lunacy on his own dime but until Woodguy spills we’ll never know

    When Hitchcock tightens things up Montoya can backup. The thing is even if they make the playoffs they are unlikely to win the Cup.

    They also shouldn’t resign Talbot at his age after what he’s done here. Unfortunately players usually don’t take big pay hits on the same team. He’ll sign for 2M or less elsewhere, staying on the Oilers he’ll get 5+ and that’s a gigantic problem.

    The key to me ( and yes it’s cold)is to get quality assets for a key position trade to help mitigate the damage of particularly the Hall trade.

    Part of keeping Connor happy is giving him a team he believes in. That he thinks can win it all. Talbot is the obvious pawn in that if he looks better to others after he doesn’t have to face so many team brain farts which is the point of Hitchcock being hired.

    The roster is better (not great) than it was playing and if everyone other than Connor, Nuge and Larsson and maybe Klefbom would stop bleeding Gold Jerry!

    Can’t see them resigning him Pete’s waiting for the best offer in the next couple of weeks.Trade him for a trade pick use the cap savings for a D man or a scoring winger and Bob’s your Uncle.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    drglen:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I think he’s worth what he’s paid, maybe a bit more. not MUCH more.you look at Russel ( is that 4 million?) and one thinks Nurse has got much more together than Russell, (at least in athletic potential) , but you have to take pause and admit that these errors… the chaos,doesn’t seem to be going away.I’m not sure he is worth more than Russel and Russel might actually be the guy keeping Nurse together.

    Speculation, .. Nurse flourishes with somebody like Larson, .. but again, .. these mistakes he is making, are all on his own.The pattern is now showing that he just does these things because he’s darnell Nurse ( A warrior to be sure) , and not because of who he is with.We’re not being objective here.

    Pure speculation on Caleb Jones.. ? ‘never reach the point.’….. 3 to 5 years away?What are you basing that on.( I dont’ know much about Jones, don’t watch the Condors games like some of you do.. just basing my opinion on camp, what Paul Coffey said, and various comments in here about Jones basically looking great down there)… So I’m actually genuinely curious .. can you educate me on what makes you doubt Jones so much?

    1) I said he’s worth MUCH more than the proposed $2.5M, not the current $3.2M. If he is going to sign for term (I believe the term proposed was 5 years) then, yes, as per the salary structure of the NHL, he’s worth more than $3.2M – definitely over $4M.

    2) Of course there is chaos and mistakes – if not, with his skating and skill-set, he’d be worth WAY more if those weren’t in his game.

    3) Its not really speculation on how he would perform with Adam Larsson, we saw it last year playing top pairing minutes. Imagine if he was playing with Parayko?

    4) Yes, its speculation on Jones but its based on, well, the history or the NHL and prospects. Draft pedigree only takes you so far but there is a reason Nurse was a top 10 pick and Jones was taken in the 4th round. Lets not forget that, while Jones is playing very good in the AHL this year, he struggled quite alot in his rookie pro season in the AHL. Nurse actually was doing very well as a rookie pro, in the NHL, not the AHL, until he was moved to the top 4 – that’s where he struggled. Nurse has greater pedigree and was well ahead of Jones at Jones’ current stage of development. It has taken Nurse 5 years to get where he is at and that is actually a normal rate of development for d-man. I don’t imagine Jones, who likely has a much lower ceiling than Nurse, can get to Nurse’s current stage quicker.

    I love me some Caleb Jones but speculating that he can come in soon and fill most of Nurse’s shoes, to me, is vastly over-rating the player and AHL performance.

  15. leadfarmer says:

    texmex:
    Halfway through the game, STL has 6 shots on goal and trail 3-0 to Detroit.

    They’re trying to blow themselves up.
    I’m sure there’s lots of GMs circling. Not Chia but good GMs

  16. Professor Q says:

    drglen: They were, the fans, and the media especially.The joke is on us this year, but, the leafs are not going to be able to afford half of their team as far as I can tell, at the end of this year.They’d better win the cup this year, because the joke will be back on them next year.

    But didn’t you hear? Their GM is a genius who will get those deals done in the final hour, all in his favour, and add even more and win 5 Cups. Their President will get their players to all time-share their contracts. It’ll all work out, man..

  17. Richard S.S. says:

    Once the back edge of puck crosses the outside edge of the Goal Line it must be a goal. The present rule is prone to error.

    The Referees should call every penalty that earned on fouling Connor McDavid once on Major TV.
    Or call one per shift that he’s out there.

  18. Professor Q says:

    Reja: Can’t see them resigning him Pete’s waiting for the best offer in the next couple of weeks.Trade him for a trade pick use the cap savings for a D man or a scoring winger and Bob’s your Uncle.

    Not just the CEO and VC of the Oilers?

  19. Glovjuice says:

    Ryan:
    I feel like the Oilers did the reverse PND with Strome.

    This season 5v5:

    Strome and Looch. 134 min, GF: 25%. CF: 53%
    Strome without Looch. 65 min, GF: 67% CF: 57%
    Looch without Strome. 141 min. GF: 29%. CF: 53%

    That’s how you win a trade folks, if that was ever a concern.

    Awful, hellishly bad trade. Can’t believe this hasn’t been in (Michael Fremmer like) heavy rotation on this blog.

  20. Rondo says:

    OriginalPouzar: So Chiarelli gets criticized for relying on Brossoit as a back-up and, now that he let Brossoit go, he gets criticized for letting him go (due to his great 6 games of numbers in WIN).

    My favorite is when he gets criticized for things that he did (or didn’t do) based on nothing but speculation and rumor – like just a few posts ago, being chastised for wanting to keep Bouchard up and having him be exposed – based on ????????? – kind of goes against Chiarelli’s express verbal (on a few occasions) that the expansion draft was going to be a factor in that decision.

    So you lump everyone in the same group. Except for yourself. Chiarelli a big boy it’s his call., and no GM worth his salt would be lead by the owner and whoever.

  21. Genjutsu says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1)Nurse would need to be qualified at $3.2M

    2) Even if there wasn’t a qualifying offer requirement, he wouldn’t sign for anywhere near $2.5M, not on a one year, 3 year, 5 year or 8 year deal

    3) Further to he is with MUCH more than $2.5M, at any term, even if you are right and he’s only a 4/5

    4) I don’t think one can discount (a) having Kris Russell as his partner (who has been better than expected at 2RD but he’s far from a solid option in that spot) and (b) a third pairing all year that can’t really play more than 10-12 minutes putting so much more pressure on the top 4

    5) Further to 4, I think we say last year what happens when he is partnered with a very good 2RD (Adam Larsson) – in fact, that pairing played top pairing minutes/QOC and have a VERY good year last year.

    6) Caleb Jones will likely never reach where Nurse currently is let alone exceed it.The answer to how much worse than Nurse will he be when brought up is – MASSIVELY!

    7) Even if Caleb Jones does reach that level, I can’t imagine its not 3-5 years away.

    I’m in full agreement on this stance except we don’t know exactly what Jones will become. I think it’s likely he ceilings as 4/5 guy. He could become a #1, extremely unlikely but possible.

    Odds are just as good he never makes more than cup of coffee in the show as him being a bottom pair.

  22. Genjutsu says:

    Glovjuice: Awful, hellishly bad trade. Can’t believe this hasn’t been in (Michael Fremmer like) heavy rotation on this blog.

    One: those are insanely small sample sizes so dangerous to draw a lot of conclusions there.

    Two: kinda early to call a winner on the trade, no?

    . . . hellishly isn’t a word but if it was the hyperbole police would be knocking on your door.

  23. oilinthepeg says:

    giddy,

    The Leafs are quality.
    I’m so jealous of the coach and the GM… it’s amazing.
    You can hate on them all you want, but they have some smart people at the helm.

    Just sucks that my Dad and brother are huge Leafs fans…

    If they don’t fire Chia soon, I might join them.

    Ugh. I know the Strome trade isn’t that damning, but… we are just SO BAD at actually looking at what a player brings. We continue to bleed value. Even if he wasn’t super high value, the early returns on Spooner are looking bleak. Sigh… sigh…. sighhhhhh……..

    At least watching McDavid play is almost always worth the time investment. At least we have that. Just feel bad for the kid.

  24. Bos8 says:

    Jones at this time is a good skater. At 6’1 and 190, that’s 3 inches and 30 pounds yielding to Nurse. On offense he’s similar to Nurse, doesn’t know what to do once he gets there. His point shot is good enough to play catch with the goalie. Doesn’t move around at the point.

    Bear is much more creative on offense but still a lot of mistakes on D.

    Lagesson has quiet D and the best wrist shot of the three. Plays with and backs up Jones.

    Not enough ice time to assign ratings. The cameras are pretty crappy in the AHL.

  25. CallighenMan says:

    giddy: I have full confidence that Sekera will never be better than a fringe NHL dman if he remains healthy. He’s 32, and wasn’t the fastest skater beforehand. Two big lower body injuries (especially ACL!) and it’s over for him.

    I have no words… unless it is to tell you to stop trolling

  26. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: It would be a classic Oilers mistake to trade Talbot before his SV% rebounds under Hitch’s systems. Talbot has flaws in his game but his main issue as I see it is confidence. If he gets shaken he needs a lot of time, I think it may be part of the slow seasonstarts he seems to recover from.

    Pump him up! Hopefully Russell looks like Giordano as well.

    Talbot has had 2 bad years and one good year with EDM.

    He’s off to a bad start this year as well.

    You cannot find give him another contract.

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bos8:
    Jones at this time is a good skater.At 6’1 and 190, that’s 3 inches and 30 pounds yielding to Nurse.On offense he’s similar to Nurse, doesn’t know what to do once he gets there.His point shot is good enough to play catch with the goalie. Doesn’t move around at the point.

    Bear is much more creative on offense but still a lot of mistakes on D.

    Lagesson has quiet D and the best wrist shot of the three.Plays with and backs up Jones.

    Not enough ice time to assign ratings.The cameras are pretty crappy in the AHL.

    You got that right about many of the cameras.

    I think Jones’ point shot has been improving but its far from great.

    Bear has struggled to find his game all year – he’s been banged up pretty much right from the start though.

    Lagesson has been my darkhorse for a while now (since prospect camp 2017) and I think he’s going to have a solid NHL career – he may top out at a third pairing guy but I can see him developing in to a solid 2nd pairing guy – maybe.

  28. Wilde says:

    Bos8: The cameras are pretty crappy in the AHL.

    The operation causes misses of the play pretty often (compared to the NHL), but I like the orientation of the cameras in the AHL. If they were better quality it’d be perfect but I like the zoomed-out view as a order v. chaos nerd

  29. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1)Nurse would need to be qualified at $3.2M

    2) Even if there wasn’t a qualifying offer requirement, he wouldn’t sign for anywhere near $2.5M, not on a one year, 3 year, 5 year or 8 year deal

    3) Further to he is with MUCH more than $2.5M, at any term, even if you are right and he’s only a 4/5

    4) I don’t think one can discount (a) having Kris Russell as his partner (who has been better than expected at 2RD but he’s far from a solid option in that spot) and (b) a third pairing all year that can’t really play more than 10-12 minutes putting so much more pressure on the top 4

    5) Further to 4, I think we say last year what happens when he is partnered with a very good 2RD (Adam Larsson) – in fact, that pairing played top pairing minutes/QOC and have a VERY good year last year.

    6) Caleb Jones will likely never reach where Nurse currently is let alone exceed it.The answer to how much worse than Nurse will he be when brought up is – MASSIVELY!

    7) Even if Caleb Jones does reach that level, I can’t imagine its not 3-5 years away.

    Thank you for this. Jones isn’t even an NHL D yet. Let’s hold back on projecting him to fill Nurse’s shoes.

    … to continue:

    8) People are saying Nurse doesn’t have the offensive acumen. Yet last season he was tied for 20th in 5-on-5 points. 1 point behind Subban, 1 point ahead of Barrie, Rielly, Gostisbehere, Hanifin. 3 points ahead of Ekman-Larsson, 4 points ahead of Ekblad, 5 points ahead of Byfuglien and Parayko. Just 3 points behind Doughty, Hamilton and Jones. His offence is in range of all the D we drool over for scoring. And he did that against the toughest competition and with a stay-at-home partner.

    http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20172018&thruseason=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=D&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single

    9) I believe Nurse partnered with a bottom pairing Russell playing on his off side is far more detrimental than we’re letting on. There wasn’t a lot of chaos last year when playing with Larsson against the best in the league. I think playing with Russell who gives up the blueline too easily, who meanders and circles back with the puck too much and passes cross ice too much, who lies on the ice too much, who blocks/screens too much has a very real effect on a player. If your partner is doing things that don’t make sense and you don’t trust that he’ll be where he should be then you start trying to do things differently to make up for it and try to do too much, then things get chaotic.

    10) Also, Nurse is still only 23. We were all excited about Davidson’s potential when he played his first NHL game at 23 years old. Nurse has played the 5th most games of D in his draft season, and has 6th most points. Guys that still seem like rookies in comparison from his draft year are Will Butcher, Ryan Pulock, Shea Theodore, and Josh Morrisey.

    https://www.eliteprospects.com/draft/nhl-entry-draft/2013?position=d

    11) Nurse played the 6th most 5-on-5 minutes in the entire NHL last season. He also had 241 D-Zone Starts, 8th most in the NHL (Larsson only had 177). 8th most rebounds created (something coaches should design strategy around). 25 individual High Danger Scoring Chances (3rd most in the NHL). 4th in shots. 3rd most rush attempts in the NHL. Players with similar stats around him are Byfuglien, Carlson, Karlsson, Werenski, Hamilton, Hedman, Parayko, Giordano, Chara, Jones, Letang.

  30. digger50 says:

    Jaxon: Thank you for this. Jones isn’t even an NHL D yet. Let’s hold back on projecting him to fill Nurse’s shoes.

    … to continue:

    8) People are saying Nurse doesn’t have the offensive accumen. Yet last season he was tied for 20th in 5-on-5 points. 1 point behind Subban, 1 point ahead of Barrie, Rielly, Gostisbehere, Hanifin. 3 points ahead of Ekman-Larsson, 4 pouints ahead of Ekblad, 5 points ahead of Byfuglien and Parayko. Just 3 points behind Doughty, Hamilton and Jones. His offence is in range of all the D we drool over for scoring. And he did that against the toughest competition and with a stay-at-home partner.

    http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20172018&thruseason=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=D&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single

    9) I believe Nurse partnered with a bottom pairing Russell playing on his off side is far more detrimental than we’re letting on. There wasn’t a lot of chaos last year when playing with Larsson against the best in the league. I think playing with Russell who gives up the blueline too easily, who meanders and circles back with the puck too much and passes cross ice too much, who lies on the ice too much, who blocks/screens too much has a very real effect on a player. If your partner is doing things that don’t make sense and you don’t trust that he’ll be where he should be then you start trying to do things differently to kae up for it and try to do too much, then things get chaotic.

    10) Also, Nurse is still only 23. We were all excited about Davidson’s potential when he played his first NHL game at 23 years old. Nurse has played the 5th most games of D in his draft season, and has 6th most points. guys that still seem like rookies in comparison from his draft year are Will butcher, Ryan Pulock, Shea Theodore, and Josh Morrisey.

    https://www.eliteprospects.com/draft/nhl-entry-draft/2013?position=d

    11) Nurse played the 6th most 5-on-5 minutes in the entire NHL last season.

    Thanks for doing this homework. These points are really good reminders.

  31. Bos8 says:

    Wilde: The operation causes misses of the play pretty often (compared to the NHL), but I like the orientation of the cameras in the AHL. If they were better quality it’d be perfect but I like the zoomed-out view as a order v. chaos nerd

    Some are better than others. Iowa had very nice coverage. You could see plays and players.

  32. Bos8 says:

    OriginalPouzar: You got that right about many of the cameras.

    I think Jones’ point shot has been improving but its far from great.

    Bear has struggled to find his game all year – he’s been banged up pretty much right from the start though.

    Lagesson has been my darkhorse for a while now (since prospect camp 2017) and I think he’s going to have a solid NHL career – he may top out at a third pairing guy but I can see him developing in to a solid 2nd pairing guy – maybe.

    Yep, I’ve been high on Lagesson as well. Reminds me a lot of a slower Klefbom coming up but with more mean.

    Just this year he’s gone from #6 to top pairing. I’d love to have him tutored by Larsson on the fine points of mean.

    I’m partial to “You’ll have lunch, I’ll have a sandwich”

  33. Glovjuice says:

    Ryan: That’s sort of the Oilers’ way.

    Don’t trade an asset unless it’s value is at its nadir, but always pay in full even if you’re buying a depreciating asset like Reinhart.

    Want to trade Strome? Give him 20 games with a guy who can’t score in the NHL anymore first.

    Oh man, your killing me. Like 5 massive doofus moves leading up to the trade. So terrible.

  34. digger50 says:

    I found someone less desirable than Remenda doing colour.

    Jelly Hrudey

    And truth be told Remenda has been good in his slot this year. Was just playing too high in the line up , typical Oiler assignment!

  35. Jaxon says:

    At this point, I say fuck it…

    Chiasson – McDavid – Puljujarvi
    (Khaira) Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl (Rieder)
    Lucic – Brodziak – Kassian
    Benson – Marody (Khaira) – Yamamoto (Marody)

    Trade/Waive Spooner, Caggiula, Rattie.

    Caggiula is coming off a bit of a run after playing with McDavid, so trade him right now as his value may never be higher.

    Rattie (poor bastard is up against Hitchcock again) had an okay run at the end of last season and then got injured before he could grab that top line spot. Maybe some GM out there remembers his hot run last year.

    I don’t know what to say about Spooner other than Gorton beat Chiarelli again. Trade him for, I dunno, something. Eberle>Strome>Spooner>3rd Round pick? Diminishing returns personified.

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Nurse – Benning
    Russell – Wideman
    Gravel

    Trade/Waive Garrison. He’d pass through waivers and nobody will trade for him.
    If Bear comes up near the end of the year and does well, then trade Wideman, too. Gravel is okay. Solid for press box and occasional #6D duty.

    Koskinen
    Montoya

    Trade Talbot – there must be some teams out there just salivating at the chance to do another reclamation on an Oiler goalie (see Dubnyk, Nilsson, Brossoit .937 in 6GP).

    Trade Bait:
    Talbot, Caggiula, Spooner, Rattie, Garrison, Wideman, maybe a couple 3rd round picks.

    What could some combo of these players/picks get? Not much?

  36. digger50 says:

    leadfarmer: They’re trying to blow themselves up.
    I’m sure there’s lots of GMs circling.Not Chia but good GMs

    Oh, we can help them along. Spooner for Maroon.

    I know, I know, but I believe Maroon can fill a spot and it’s cheap.

    Then poor Talbot to Philly for Gudas.

  37. Glovjuice says:

    New Improved Darkness: Nuge with/without Rattie might not mean what you think it means.

    But you did confine the splits above to this season, and I happen to know that the uncontrolled Uncontrollable Tilt is mainly absent from this particular grim portrait.

    ***

    Hitch will take Eggs with Legs any day of the week (0–0 score, with the Identity Line grinding the puck oblate in the O-zone periphery).

    Every minute played Eggs with Legs is another minute he can rest up his super-gun.

    ***

    The split you really want to see is Conner with/without a recent 25-minute bag skate.

    ***

    Conventional statistics omit all carry-over phenomena.

    Memory is not a thing. History is not a thing. Fresh legs is not a thing.

    Another valuable split: lazy late-game hooking infractions by opponents with/without being thrice-thumped by the mid-clavical Adam’s apple.

    ***

    Once upon a time, Looch’s mom tied his soft hands to a red mitten string, but then his neck checked into the chop shop for the cut-spring look, and the red mitten string was never again seen. It probably wound up—all wound up—on the drive spindle of some unsuspecting chop-shop angle grinder (Looch forgot to disclose the string on his medical consent form).

    ***

    Not to worry—the unfortunate, woolen-wear angle-grinder later re-upped as mitten buffer for detailing Diamond Ductile DeLorean clear-coat.

    Shop mechanic:

    “Man, this kitten grinder”—as they later dubbed it—”sure dials up the sweet surrender, but what I’d give on any given double-booked Monday morning if it had one lick of truculence at the outset to slicken the flux.”

    As useful as it sometimes might be, chances are the kitten grinder gets replaced on the next re-up with a Fender Stratocaster. Nothing details an F-650 chrome kit quite like a Lick of Truculence. Then—with all the time saved buffing the Brokeback Bling—you can detail all those wax-drinking blue-collar DeLoreans with a gruff, hand shammy.

    Horses for courses, per the shop 4-on-the-floor forebot.

    What? Say what again mother fucker…

  38. Ice Sage says:

    leadfarmer: They’re trying to blow themselves up.
    I’m sure there’s lots of GMs circling.Not Chia but good GMs

    The St Louis Hughes?

  39. Glovjuice says:

    Oilanderp:
    The temperature change from air to ice causes a refraction or slight bending of the light around the puck, making one think one sees black, white, then red when there really isn’t any white between the black and red at all.Add to that the fact that the very most top layer of ice is actually melted water.Further refraction.

    See.

    It puts the lotion in the basket…do you see?

  40. Glovjuice says:

    jtblack: 2019 Draft is considered good and deep … I am 100% against trading our 1st or 2nd round pick ..

    PC did it once and we saw how that worked out ..

    And I agree with you. We do not need more cap issues. We need cheap ELC players that can have an impact; only way to obtain them is via the draft.

    Well, for sure don’t trade them for a failing AHL player.

  41. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Dammit… the ducks won again! why can’t they just roll over already…

  42. drglen says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1) I said he’s worth MUCH more than the proposed $2.5M, not the current $3.2M. If he is going to sign for term (I believe the term proposed was 5 years) then, yes, as per the salary structure of the NHL, he’s worth more than $3.2M – definitely over $4M.

    2) Of course there is chaos and mistakes – if not, with his skating and skill-set, he’d be worth WAY more if those weren’t in his game.

    3) Its not really speculation on how he would perform with Adam Larsson, we saw it last year playing top pairing minutes.Imagine if he was playing with Parayko?

    4) Yes, its speculation on Jones but its based on, well, the history or the NHL and prospects. Draft pedigree only takes you so far but there is a reason Nurse was a top 10 pick and Jones was taken in the 4th round. Lets not forget that, while Jones is playing very good in the AHL this year, he struggled quite alot in his rookie pro season in the AHL. Nurse actually was doing very well as a rookie pro, in the NHL, not the AHL, until he was moved to the top 4 – that’s where he struggled. Nurse has greater pedigree and was well ahead of Jones at Jones’ current stage of development.It has taken Nurse 5 years to get where he is at and that is actually a normal rate of development for d-man. I don’t imagine Jones, who likely has a much lower ceiling than Nurse, can get to Nurse’s current stage quicker.

    I love me some Caleb Jones but speculating that he can come in soon and fill most of Nurse’s shoes, to me, is vastly over-rating the player and AHL performance.

    ok good points man.

  43. Reja says:

    All you have to do is touch Jenny Hockey and it’s a penalty meanwhile Connor gets mugged all game pisses me off. Someone is gonna paste that little ham and egger in the playoffs.

  44. Glovjuice says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Agreed

    Threed. Amazing how Russel or Benning don’t cut it. I thought for sure it was covered by those two. see.

  45. Scungilli Slushy says:

    drglen: They were, the fans, and the media especially.The joke is on us this year, but, the leafs are not going to be able to afford half of their team as far as I can tell, at the end of this year.They’d better win the cup this year, because the joke will be back on them next year.

    The Cap is the great equalizer, which is why the draft is key to continued success. Which is why the Reinhart trade is a crippler. They might ditch Nylander but that is not the end for them.

  46. drglen says:

    Jaxon,

    sorry late to jump in.

    Many good points that remind me and others how well he’s actually doing and good to remind that he is only 23!!!!! The decisions and erratic plays will ease off. (but man, just about cost us the game… I think that’s it the mistakes are unreasonably amplifide because things are so tough for the oilers, .. we need to play mistake free to win pretty much.

    The thing that I like about nurse actually is his character, his personality. This league is so bland in many ways and when you see a guy that has really a persona, that really makes that team more interesting. He’s a really interesting player in my opinion.

  47. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Reja:
    All you have to do is touch Jenny Hockey and it’s a penalty meanwhile Connor gets mugged all game pisses me off. Someone is gonna paste that little ham and egger in the playoffs.

    Owner problem to solve. A hard word with Bettman would do the trick I’m sure. It’s all about money, and there is a definitive money argument to make about the best player in the league and the other great players being able to play to make the game better, regardless of how the Oilers got to draft so many 1 OVs, they changed the rules after all.

  48. Reja says:

    Flames finally lose in OT.

  49. Glovjuice says:

    giddy:
    Just once, I wish we could see how guys like Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson might perform if we also had a true #1 dman. I bet if you paired any of those guys up with an opposing handed stud, they’d come to be top 2 guys in no time. Instead, having our top four dman being all #4 dman is killing us, and them.

    Imagine Nurse playing with Pietrangelo. Or Larsson playing with Hedman. Or Klefbom with Doughty.

    ******DO NOT READ BELOW THIS LINE********

    ….or any of them with a prime years Pronger……

    Perfect assessment. Don’t see this brought up much but very accurate. Larson is actually pretty far from being a true #1 – let alone the others.

  50. drglen says:

    Jaxon,

    yep.

    Especially like the 4th line… I mean what the hell is the use of a 4th line that doesn’t even step on the ice? !!! Might as well roll with the youngsters man.

  51. drglen says:

    Crazy Pedestrian:
    Dammit… the ducks won again! why can’t they just roll over already…

    The ducks are our ‘Darby’ … Man U vs Man city, Athletico vs Real battle of alberta sure, whatever, but the F$cking DUCKS! I hate the f$cking DUCKS.. !!!!

  52. Glovjuice says:

    giddy: Cruel, but so, so truthful.

    The joke is on Arizona. #thecrappystrome

  53. JimmyV1965 says:

    The Flames have had 17 PPs in their last four games. We’ve had 6 in our last three games. Hmm.

  54. flea says:

    Reja,

    Rittich was pissed at the end. He thought he was interfered with and threw 1/2 a broken stick at the officials. It was from pretty far away but I wonder if he gets a fine or suspension.

  55. Reja says:

    JimmyV1965:
    The Flames have had 17 PPs in their last four games. We’ve had 6 in our last three games. Hmm.

    Maybe that’s the price we have to pay since Bettman gifted Katz and us Connor.

  56. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    The oilers are 4 points out of the wildcard and the pacific is surging.

    The next 5 are must wins.

  57. Reja says:

    flea:
    Reja,

    Rittich was pissed at the end. He thought he was interfered with and threw 1/2 a broken stick at the officials. It was from pretty far away but I wonder if he gets a fine or suspension.

    Shades of Roloson loved him maybe the Oilers will show more spirit under Hitch and get back in this wide open West Division.

  58. drglen says:

    Ok I read the cult of hockey take on Frank Seravalli’s interview podcast.

    I’m not a fan of the guy, OK sorry. He’s a front runner, and probably reads this blog, and there’s 15 guys or more on this blog, that have a lot more insight and thoughtful prediction and analysis than that guy. Its as if he has little feelers out and senses the ‘big story’ and makes big statements on what he senses is the ground swell support. I know he’s a guest of the show and I’ve enjoyed the interviews, but sorry man he comes off as one of these pompous Toronto guys, .. don’t think the statement or opinion is credible until THEY say it, even though it actually comes from HERE, (from us I suspect) or equivalent. The interview is pissy and too disrespectful.

    Fire Chirelli, yadda yadda yadda… we know already. Here’s the real story Frank…. Chiralli, might be right. Chirelli, might actually be making the right deals and the right players and the right style and the right coach, and we’ll all ( ME at the top of the list) be eating humble pie. He made big mistakes, but he’s also made good moves and I think we are one player, maybe 2 , away from the playoffs, even contending.

    I’ve been mean to Pete on here, losing losing losing and seeing how we lack skill to convert offensive plays, lack skill to bring the puck up ice, but…

    a) maybe it was the coach. The way the team seems to be looking, in every game good chance to win.

    b) he was BANG ON, on the goaltender and

    c) he may actually be BANG ON on heavy hockey in the pacific division.

    d) his drafting is good and he knows this is the tough year as the prospect are not quite ready, .. knows you build through the draft , knows the new cup contending core is coming online, just have to survive this year.

    e) and with all the ranting about ‘Connors wasted years’…. that’s too much too. Lots of superstars aren’t in situations to win right away, This notion of saddling Chiarelli with ‘Connors wasted years’ syndrome has gone to far.

    There’s your story frank, your welcome.

  59. HT Joe says:

    Reja: Maybe that’s the price we have to pay since Bettman gifted Katz and us Connor.

    Unfortunately, it’s actually a price McDavid et al. have to pay.

  60. Glovjuice says:

    drglen:
    Ok I read the cult of hockey take on Frank Seravalli’s interview podcast.

    I’m not a fan of the guy, OK sorry.He’s a front runner, and probably reads this blog, and there’s 15 guys or more on this blog, that have a lot more insight and thoughtful prediction and analysis than that guy.Its as if he has little feelers out and senses the ‘big story’ and makes big statements on what he senses is the ground swell support.I know he’s a guest of the show and I’ve enjoyed the interviews, but sorry man he comes off as one of these pompous Toronto guys,.. don’t think the statement or opinion is credible until THEY say it,even though it actually comes from HERE,(from us I suspect) or equivalent.The interview is pissy and too disrespectful.

    Fire Chirelli, yadda yadda yadda… we know already.Here’s the real story Frank…. Chiralli, might be right. Chirelli, might actually be making the right deals and the right players and the right style and the right coach, and we’ll all ( ME at the top of the list) be eating humble pie. He made big mistakes, but he’s also made good moves and I think we are one player, maybe 2 , away from the playoffs, even contending.

    I’ve been mean to Pete on here, losing losing losing and seeing how we lack skill to convert offensive plays, lack skill to bring the puck up ice,but…

    a) maybe it was the coach. The way the team seems to be looking, in every game good chance to win.

    b) he was BANG ON, on the goaltenderand

    c) he may actually be BANG ON on heavy hockey in the pacific division.

    d) his drafting is good and he knows this is the tough year as the prospect are not quite ready, .. knows you build through the draft , knows the new cup contending core is coming online, just have to survive this year.

    e) and with all the ranting about ‘Connors wasted years’…. that’s too much too. Lots of superstars aren’t in situations to win right away,This notion of saddling Chiarelli with ‘Connors wasted years’ syndrome has gone to far.

    There’s your story frank, your welcome.

    Yikes. No, this not correct.

  61. Reja says:

    drglen:
    Ok I read the cult of hockey take on Frank Seravalli’s interview podcast.

    I’m not a fan of the guy, OK sorry.He’s a front runner, and probably reads this blog, and there’s 15 guys or more on this blog, that have a lot more insight and thoughtful prediction and analysis than that guy.Its as if he has little feelers out and senses the ‘big story’ and makes big statements on what he senses is the ground swell support.I know he’s a guest of the show and I’ve enjoyed the interviews, but sorry man he comes off as one of these pompous Toronto guys,.. don’t think the statement or opinion is credible until THEY say it,even though it actually comes from HERE,(from us I suspect) or equivalent.The interview is pissy and too disrespectful.

    Fire Chirelli, yadda yadda yadda… we know already.Here’s the real story Frank…. Chiralli, might be right. Chirelli, might actually be making the right deals and the right players and the right style and the right coach, and we’ll all ( ME at the top of the list) be eating humble pie. He made big mistakes, but he’s also made good moves and I think we are one player, maybe 2 , away from the playoffs, even contending.

    I’ve been mean to Pete on here, losing losing losing and seeing how we lack skill to convert offensive plays, lack skill to bring the puck up ice,but…

    a) maybe it was the coach. The way the team seems to be looking, in every game good chance to win.

    b) he was BANG ON, on the goaltenderand

    c) he may actually be BANG ON on heavy hockey in the pacific division.

    d) his drafting is good and he knows this is the tough year as the prospect are not quite ready, .. knows you build through the draft , knows the new cup contending core is coming online, just have to survive this year.

    e) and with all the ranting about ‘Connors wasted years’…. that’s too much too. Lots of superstars aren’t in situations to win right away,This notion of saddling Chiarelli with ‘Connors wasted years’ syndrome has gone to far.

    There’s your story frank, your welcome.

    I believe the oilers are built for the playoffs the problem is getting there. No team would choose to play them if they had a choice especially after the refs put away their whistles . They know win are lose they’re gonna be beat up at the end of the series.

  62. Wilde says:

    Eventually, the most impactful project Ken Hitchcock is working on will be Jesse Puljujarvi (Or perhaps Leon Draisaitl), but so far it’s been Kassian.

    I don’t know if I said it here or just elsewhere, but I was fairly certain Kassian would be one of the first casualties as the team evolved through ice-time partitioning and personnel changes during the new HC’s playoff drive.

    Previously, Kassian would be second to the puck as it came up to the point in the DZ when the Oilers didn’t have the puck, and fail to properly separate himself to create a realistic outlet option when they did have the puck. Add this to poor decisions as he’s entering the zone and we had a dangerous player to put on the ice – generating turnovers at each blueline.

    Two team-wide adjustments like dumping the puck through the same side it’s being carried every time and having the third man be the shooter on recoveries have impacted his game in particular so much. That line exits the zone better, and they create more once they’re there – we can talk about finishing talent, but even at replacement-level finishing talent they should have a few goals there and I don’t believe all three are below that level – I’d buy one but that’s it.

    I entirely disregard any complaints about that unit. It’s completely inane to hear negativity about them when the parts of a fourth line that was losing against worst comp in limited minutes have been put together to form a line that’s winning against better comp in extended minutes comparatively. You need to give me something tangible, and a lot of it, before I stop thinking that the criticisms are just based on previous dislike of the players and the overuse of a nickname by the broadcast crew.

    If they keep this up, barring a catastrophic discrepancy between the shot shares and goal shares, we’re looking at a unit that critically stems the bleeding that occurs during some of the more difficult McDavid-off minutes from personnel that were previously contributing in the opposite direction on the ice while creating 8M in dead-weight.

    All in-house with no current-year asset cost.

    As it is now, we’ve got about ~9M winning low-event minutes away from McDavid.

    If it was two 3M players and a 2M player, all with different names than Milan and Zack and Kyle, I think people would like them a lot more.

    Let’s count all of the benefits there:

    1) Removes Zack Kassian and Milan Lucic’s previously negative contributions

    2) Consumes 97-off minutes while staying low-event. Low event-ness is important because it reduces the effects of goaltending variance and shooting variance – if your goalie can’t make a save, then a shot share of 45 shots per hour both ways (for a 50%) is much worse than 30 shots both ways (for the same 50%).

    This also means that going on a shooting percentage heater means less goals, but that’s both not very likely and lower ceiling than average given player baselines, compared to the ubiquitous goalie-voodoo that can happen to anyone at any time.

    3) Does so with overpaid contracts, meaning that the true contribution per dollar of the entire roster swings significantly

    4) Eases the burden of having to rebuild roster deployment under the new coach (versus losing minutes while figuring out who to put with who like the current situation of other non-97 minute shares)

    That the line worked off the bat is very important, considering how impactful each game is at this point of the season.

  63. Pescador says:

    drglen: The ducks are our ‘Darby’… Man U vs Man city,Athletico vs Real battle of alberta sure, whatever,but the F$cking DUCKS!I hate the f$cking DUCKS.. !!!!

    Actually Flames v. Oilers
    is the local Derby
    You are correct about the Ducks tho
    Fuck them

  64. who says:

    Wilde:
    Eventually, the most impactful project Ken Hitchcock is working on will be Jesse Puljujarvi (Or perhaps Leon Draisaitl), but so far it’s been Kassian.

    I don’t know if I said it here or just elsewhere, but I was fairly certain Kassian would be one of the first casualties has the team evolved through ice-time partitioning and personnel changes during the new HC’s playoff drive.

    Previously, Kassian would be second to the puck as it came up to the point in the DZ when the Oilers didn’t have the puck, and fail to properly separate himself to create a realistic outlet option when they did have the puck. Add this to poor decisions as he’s entering the zone and we had a dangerous player to put on the ice – generating turnovers at each blueline.

    Two team-wide adjustments like dumping the puck through the same side it’s being carried every time and having the third man be the shooter on recoveries have impacted his game in particular so much. That line exits the zone better, and they create more once they’re there – we can talk about finishing talent, but even at replacement-level finishing talent they should have a few goals there and I don’t believe all three are below that level, I’d buy one but that’s it.

    I entirely disregard any complaints about that unit. It’s completely inane to hear negativity about them when the parts of a fourth line that was losing against worst comp in limited minutes have been put together to form a line that’s winning against better comp in extended minutes comparatively. You need to give me something tangible, and a lot of it, before I stop thinking that the criticisms are just based on previous dislike of the players and overuse of a nickname by the broadcast crew.

    If they keep this up, barring a catastrophic discrepancy between the shot shares and goal shares, we’re looking at a unit that significantly stems the bleeding from some of the more difficult McDavid-off minutes from personnel that were previously contributing in the opposite direction on the ice while creating 8M in dead-weight.

    As it is now, we’ve got about ~9M winning low-event minutes away from McDavid.

    If it was two 3M players and a 2M player, all with different names than Milan and Zack and Kyle, I think people would like them a lot more.

    Well said.

  65. hunter1909 says:

    Wilde: If it was two 3M players and a 2M player, all with different names than Milan and Zack and Kyle, I think people would like them a lot more.

    Reads like Jekyll and Hyde = Milan Zack and Kyle = The Jekyll and Hyde line.

  66. oilinthepeg says:

    digger50,

    Agreed! The advantage of me stubling around here like a seen-em-meh idiot is that smart people prove my intuitions incorrect and it is lovely! I sort of feel bad for being an idiot… but then I don’t because (hopefully!) Original Pouzar enjoys bringing this stuff up for discussion!

  67. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1)Nurse would need to be qualified at $3.2M

    2) Even if there wasn’t a qualifying offer requirement, he wouldn’t sign for anywhere near $2.5M, not on a one year, 3 year, 5 year or 8 year deal

    3) Further to he is with MUCH more than $2.5M, at any term, even if you are right and he’s only a 4/5

    4) I don’t think one can discount (a) having Kris Russell as his partner (who has been better than expected at 2RD but he’s far from a solid option in that spot) and (b) a third pairing all year that can’t really play more than 10-12 minutes putting so much more pressure on the top 4

    5) Further to 4, I think we say last year what happens when he is partnered with a very good 2RD (Adam Larsson) – in fact, that pairing played top pairing minutes/QOC and have a VERY good year last year.

    6) Caleb Jones will likely never reach where Nurse currently is let alone exceed it.The answer to how much worse than Nurse will he be when brought up is – MASSIVELY!

    7) Even if Caleb Jones does reach that level, I can’t imagine its not 3-5 years away.

    Paying a guy 5+ million dollars when he needs to be paired with a player like Larsson (someone who the reigning mvp was traded for) to have success in the top 4 seems foolhardy. It’s about his 4th or 5th rookie season in a row?

    Seems like paying Draisaitl 8.5 million dollars to be McDavids winger. It’s a luxury that is difficult to afford in the modern NHL.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    No, he doesn’t need to be paired with Adam Larsson to be a success in the top 4. Right now he is carrying a 3rd pairing d-man playing his offside and playing 20 minutes at evens a game with 2nd pairing comp. He is already a solid 2nd pairing d-man, carrying the pair.

    Pairing him with Adam Larsson and he can be very good at top pairing minutes against top competition, as we’ve seen.

    Yes, that player is worth $5M long term to me – espcially given he’s 23 years old.

  69. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    If Hitchcock is assessing and deciding on the roster, from pulling up JP to identifying trade needs, is this evidencing more power than TMac ever had? As far as the NHL club is concerned, does Hitch make Chia a lame duck?

    I’m glad you talked about trading 1 overall on yesterday’s show LT. I have been open to it. With the depth of the draft it is a gamble, but I wonder if in another transaction Talbot might help bring back a lower pick to cushion the blow (2nd rounder?) while offloading salary needed to bring in whatever scoring winger that 1ov can get us.

    But I wouldn’t do that until we are sure Koskinen is sustainable through the end of the year. Talbot is still a good back up.

  70. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    Like I wonder if Hitch said yes, I’ll come save your job but you need to do exactly what I tell you.

  71. Bos8 says:

    I wouldn’t worry about Nurse at this time. Yes he did one year development four times but now he’s getting coaching and his processor is getting overloaded. He’s thinking mid stride rather than parsing options.

    Kassian was simpler to fix, Nurse will take a little longer.

    Let loose the hounds

  72. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Professor Q,

    Rondo,

    drglen,

    The leafs are a fun team to watch, no question but for those who’ve followed my rantings the GM has already made an absolutely critical error and that was signing John Tavares. At $11 million per he’s an albatross, combine that with the fact that he is already the 3rd most talented player on the team behind Matthews and Marner and you have a really big issue.

    However, that is not the real reason that Toronto is doomed to playoff failure, that cause is in the crease and was made exponentially worse once the goalie depth got raided at the end of training camp.

    For folks who were mad at TMac for overworking Talbot in 2016/2017 take a look at Andersen’s numbers over the last few years. Nobody sees more rubber or crease time in a season than Andersen. His statline while in TO plus his last year in Anaheim is below and I’ve set it up as games, total shots against, shots per game

    2015/2016 (Anaheim) 43 – 1086 – 25.3
    2016/2017 (1st TO) 66 – 2052 – 31.1
    2017/2018 (2nd TO) 66 – 2211 – 33.5
    2018/2019 (3rd TO) 21 – 688 – 32.8 (on pace for 77 and 2523 but likely to get a break)

    2018/2019 though is a bit of a weird one. In October the Leaf’s were reasonably good at preventing shots against. Andersen played 10 games in October, faced 307 shots for 30.7 per game. In November he’s played 11 games and faced 381 shots for 34.6 per game, specifically in the last six games the Leafs have been bleeding shots heavily and he’s seen 232 shots for 38.7 per game.

    There are of course some score effects in play in these numbers as the Leaf’s can cut bait and run with the best of em but I watch them pretty regularly and Andersen more often than not is making 5 bell saves and having to move very aggressively on a lot of them.

    What happens next year when/if Hainsey hangs em up (or loses a step) and Gardiner walks?

    Their backend prospect pool is nowhere near as developed as their forward depth and those who could fill a role are all at the very lower end of their 20’s. Meanwhile this off-season will see Dubas negotiating with both Marner and Matthews (who left for Switzerland at 17 to get PAID) where its not inconceivable that both players are looking for double digit contracts long-term.

    Given all of the above I’d be very careful about calling the Leafs a model franchise at this point. They are loaded with young talent, absolutely no question and they are really fun to watch. But there are gaping holes on that roster being papered over and they are in a holdout position with their first RFA contract with their two studs coming up next season and both are putting up good to great numbers.

  73. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    – Some good points: I can’t stand the Leafs, and the 24/7 local is terrible

    – Nylander is interesting: He needs to take care of number 1, and Matthews going to get paid somewhere between Eichel and McD (so $12.5ish), Marner: they won’t be albe to keep the band together IMO.

    – Toronto press though: they are not raising the alarms: everyone is all in here

    * the main difference between us and them is that Marner and Nylander have emerged, and Kailer and Pool haven’t

  74. russ99 says:

    Chelios is a Dinosaur:
    If Hitchcock is assessing and deciding on the roster, from pulling up JP to identifying trade needs, is this evidencing more power than TMac ever had? As far as the NHL club is concerned, does Hitch make Chia a lame duck?

    I’m glad you talked about trading 1 overall on yesterday’s show LT. I have been open to it. With the depth of the draft it is a gamble, but I wonder if in another transaction Talbot might help bring back a lower pick to cushion the blow (2nd rounder?) while offloading salary needed to bring in whatever scoring winger that 1ov can get us.

    But I wouldn’t do that until we are sure Koskinen is sustainable through the end of the year. Talbot is still a good back up.

    I don’t buy it. New guy with Hall of Fame track record with a clean slate with fans. I’d let him be the mouthpiece too.

    Puljujarvi’s move to the second line is all Chia, especially since this was a sticking point between him and McLellan. Hitchcock wouldn’t promote a player after one game, with mixed results, players need time to be rewired from a new voice.

  75. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide:
    For The Athletic: No. 4 prospect winter 2018: Ryan McLeod

    https://theathletic.com/679281/2018/11/29/oilers-no-4-prospect-winter-2018-the-need-for-speed-puts-ryan-mcleod-on-an-nhl-fast-track/

    I agree. Good coverage and article.

  76. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I agree yup.

    The decision was made in the summer of 2016 to rebuild around McDavid, Drai, Nuge, Nurse, Klefbom and Larsson.

    Its a solid rationale but there have been fits and starts which should be expected with younger players.

    The emergence of the support pieces (Yama, JP, Marody, Sebig, Benson and Bouchard) are beyond critical but could push things from “laughing stock” to “juggernaut” in a big hurry if they arrive.

    We wait.

  77. Mike Wazowski says:

    The technology already exists that could eliminate the lousy calls on goals. RFID tags and sensors in the posts could solve a lot.

    http://rfid24-7.com/2012/10/15/how-the-nhl-can-benefit-from-rfid-enabled-hockey-pucks/

  78. Oil2Oilers says:

    I am OK if Lucic wants to earn a suspension removing Brown from the game

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