Game 28 2018-19: Oilers at Blues

The Edmonton Oilers lost in Dallas without Connor McDavid, but with the captain back have a good chance to win against the St. Louis Blues this evening. McDavid doesn’t just cut the game in half, he brings possession, goal differential and exhausts the other team’s best for over 20 minutes a night. Here’s the latest, using shot and goal differential:

  • Connor McDavid 5-on-5 On Ice: Shots (273-228) 54.49 percent; GD (20-15) 57.14 percent. 
  • Connor McDavid 5-on-5 Off Ice: Shots (401-407) 49.6 percent; GD (21-33) 38.89 percent

Edmonton’s 5-on-5 shooting percentage is 6.08 this season (7.48 last year; 8.28 in their playoff season) and that should regress, but then again no sniper with Simo Häyhä’s resume is on the current roster. Ken Hitchcock is going to be like an agitating washing machine trying to get goals out of his current wingers, and then the next batch if these guys don’t work out.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: Ken Hitchcock’s ‘to-do’ list of miracles a long one, involving 30 percent of the Oilers roster.
  • Jonathan Willis: Leon Draisaitl needs his own line and other lessons from a McDavid-less Oilers loss
  • Lowetide: Oilers farm team in Bakersfield coming to a boil with quality prospects, most exciting farm team in decades.
  • Lowetide: Finding Ken Hitchcock’s Oilers more productive wingers: Hard target search.
  • Dom Luszczyszyn: 31 Stats (Oilers content).
  • Jonathan Willis: Edmonton’s waiver gamble on Valentin Zykov is one with the possibility of a surprisingly high-end payoff.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 4 Prospect winter 2018: Ryan McLeod.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 Prospect winter 2018: Tyler Benson.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 2 Prospect winter 2018: Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 1 Prospect winter 2018: Evan Bouchard.

OILERS AFTER 28

  • Oilers in 201511-15-2, 24 points; goal differential -11
  • Oilers in 2016: 14-10-4, 32 points; goal differential +6
  • Oilers in 2017: 11-15-2, 24 points; goal differential -14
  • Oilers in 2018: 13-12-2, 28 points; goal differential -6

Suddenly the 2018 team is losing ground to the playoff club and the two non-playoff teams are on the same lap as this year’s model. The NHL is evil with the Bettman point, you can’t make up ground because of the damned singleton but you can lose ground if you don’t get those extra points. Edmonton needs at least an overtime result this evening.

OILERS IN DECEMBER

  • Oilers in December 2015: 3-0-0, six points; goal differential +3
  • Oilers in December 2016: 2-0-1, five points; goal differential +3
  • Oilers in December 2017: 2-1-0, four points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in December 2018: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential -1

December for the McDavids has been a good time all four seasons, the current crew will need a win just to keep up. The team is currently on pace for 85 points, but a win tonight improves that number to 88. The Oilers aren’t far away here, although the Pacific is starting to heat up.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER

  • At home to: Vegas (Expected 0-1-0) Actual (1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Dallas, St. Louis (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Minnesota, Calgary (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Colorado, Winnipeg (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Philadelphia (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Vancouver, San Jose, Winnipeg (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games 
  • Current results: 1-1-0, two points in two games

This is the most winnable game this week, the trick will be getting two points from the weekend games. McDavid is 5-12-17, minus 1 in his last 15 games, he was 11, 9-9-18 to start the campaign. History suggests he is about to tear up the blacktop, and coach Hitchcock has freshened the lines and steam cleaned the carpets.

NEW LINES

  • Chiasson—McDavid—Draisaitl: 38 goals
  • Khaira—Nuge—Puljujarvi: 9 goals
  • Caggiula—Spooner—Rattie: 10 goals
  • Lucic—Brodziak—Kassian: 4 goals
  • Klefbom—Larsson: 2 goals
  • Nurse—Russell: 3 goals
  • Gravel—Benning: 1 goal
  • Talbot (Koskinen)

Via Jack Michaels. Hitchcock is as loyal to 97-29 as McLellan before him, and like the dispatched coach, the new man doesn’t have enough in the batting order to give the Nuge line home-run power. Khaira moving up is cool from a fan point of view but that’s also reflective of the roster issues. I also expect Khaira’s spot to be occupied by Valentin Zykov by the weekend, so the window of opportunity for the big man is small.

The third line has more skill with Rattie added to Spooner, perhaps they can break through. The fourth line is now back to being the fourth line, in the words of Craig MacTavish  “in today’s NHL, even marginally, you have to be a threat to score.” That fourth line that can’t score. They’ll make $9.1 million this season. The player MacT was talking about in that quote? Rookie Teemu Hartikainen.

Lots of good arrows for this player he could be a masterful waiver claim if things work out right. Skill meets opportunity is a fabulous story, we’re seeing it in Vancouver with Josh Leivo and Edmonton badly needs the same.

WHAT IF THEY DON’T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS?

On the morning he was fired, Todd McLellan’s Oilers had a record of 9-10-1, 19 points and good for No. 6 in the division (No. 4 by points over .500). This morning, after going 4-2-1 under Ken Hitchcock since November 20, the team has a record of 13-12-2, 28 points and good for No. 6 in the division (No. 6 by points over .500).

I think the playoffs are important, but equally vital is getting young, inexpensive contracts playing productively while filling important roles on the team. What does that look like?

In 1993-94, the Oilers rookies included Jason Arnott, Dean McAmmond, Boris Mironov and Kirk Maltby. The following season Todd Marchant and David Oliver joined, and the next Ryan Smyth, Miro Satan and Greg DeVries. In 1996-67, three years after Arnott, the team debuted Mike Grier, Rem Murray, Dan McGillis. That’s one dozen substantial additions in four seasons. When you don’t have actual NHL players, you have to develop them.

Since Connor McDavid arrived in 2015 fall, how many actual NHLers have made their debut with the Oilers? Darnell Nurse, Brandon Davidson, Drake Caggiula, Matt Benning, Jujhar Khaira and we’ll see about the rest.

Names that need to be added to this list? Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Evan Bouchard, Cooper Marody, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and on it goes. It can’t be built in a day, but tonight’s roster will see only one (Puljujarvi) of these young talents playing a feature role on the team.

That’s okay, things take time. However, there are over 50 NHL games left in this season and there should be plenty of time to get at least a couple more youngsters into the lineup full time. The playoffs are the goal, but if that isn’t possible then for heaven sakes find out about Marody and Bear, or Yamamoto and Jones.

Ken Hitchcock inserted Jesse Puljujarvi into the lineup in one of his first moves. I expect we’ll see the coach do the same with at least one more Condor in the immediate future.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy, fun morning with interesting guests. It all starts at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. We’ll chat about tonight’s game, a world without McDavid and the current wingers.
  • Jon Campbell, Oddshark. College football bets, Gonzaga’s college basketball success, favourites currently for Seattle’s NHL nickname, how much does McDavid being out of the lineup impact Oilers odds.
  • Chris Daniels, King5 Seattle. Seattle’s NHL expansion.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. Talk soon!

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400 Responses to "Game 28 2018-19: Oilers at Blues"

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  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Oiler Goal Share after 27 games (13-12-2)

    Even strength (5v5, 4v4, 3v3):
    McDavid On Ice 25-18 (58%)
    McDavid Off Ice 23-35 (40%)
    Net EV -5

    Special Teams (PP+shorties for – PK + shorties against):
    21-22
    Net ST -1

    Empty Net:
    2-8
    Net EN -6

    Net Goal Differential -12

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    HITCHCOCK ERA:
    Oiler Goal Share after 7 games (4-2-1)

    Even strength (5v5, 4v4, 3v3):
    McDavid On Ice 5-4 (56%)
    McDavid Off Ice 5-7 (42%)
    Net EV -1

    Special Teams (PP+shorties for – PK + shorties against):
    4-3
    Net ST +1

    Empty Net:
    0-3
    Net EN -3

    Net Goal Differential -3

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Western Conference Playoff Standings via Points Percentage. Expressed as “games over/under fake Bettman .500”

    Central
    NSH 11
    WPG 9
    COL 9

    Pacific
    CGY 8
    ANA 4
    SJS 3

    Wildcard
    MIN 5
    DAL 5
    ______________
    Out of playoffs
    ARI 2
    VGK 2
    EDM 1
    STL -4
    VAN -5
    CHI -5
    LAK -7

    ARI has now passed EDM.

    ARI has a cap $72MM, but 5.5 of that is Bolland who is paid by insurance and 5.275 of that is Hossa who isn’t getting paid at all.

    So a team with an actual cap of ~61MM is ahead of EDM who is capped out and has Connor McDavid.

    Ok then.

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Here’s the Western Conference teams goal differential as per hockey-reference.com

    Goal differential has historically been the best predictor of making the playoffs.

    NSH 23
    COL 23
    CGY 18
    WPG 16
    MIN 8
    DAL 6
    VGK 6
    ARI 1
    SJS -4
    STL -11
    EDM -12
    ANA -13
    VAN -21
    LAK -25
    CHI -27

    ANA is defying their goal diff, but they’ve played much better hockey lately.

    SJS has got shit goaltending so far this year.

    ARI and VGK are worth keeping an eye on.

    The red team to the south looks real. Bah!

  5. Ben says:

    Any eye-test updates on Yamamoto? (And is it just me or does Bako’s schedule play out in fits and starts?)

    The team desperately needs one of PJ or KY to click with 97/27 on a top-two line. For now, I’d love to see Nuge-Drai-PJ together for a few games. 97 can play with a sack of sweet potatoes and the ghost of Molly Malone.

  6. jtblack says:

    “Chiasson—McDavid—Draisaitl: 38 goals
    Khaira—Nuge—Puljujarvi: 9 goals
    Caggiula—Spooner—Rattie: 10 goals”

    Factor in a handful of Nuge’s goals and most of Cagguila’s were scored when they played with Connor and the Numbers look even more bleak.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    No Maksimov for Team Russia WJC. Damn Russian politics.

  8. jtblack says:

    and Thanks LT : Grateful as always.

    and thanks for sharing your McD ON / OFF Woodguy!

    Big win tonight ….. 3-2 OT

  9. PennersPancakes says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Did Samorukov make it?

  10. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here’s the Western Conference teams goal differential as per hockey-reference.com

    Goal differential has historically been the best predictor of making the playoffs.

    NSH23
    COL23
    CGY18
    WPG16
    MIN8
    DAL6
    VGK6
    ARI1
    SJS-4
    STL-11
    EDM-12
    ANA-13
    VAN-21
    LAK-25
    CHI-27

    ANA is defying their goal diff, but they’ve played much better hockey lately.

    SJS has got shit goaltending so far this year.

    ARI and VGK are worth keeping an eye on.

    The red team to the south looks real.Bah!

    VGK 8-3 in their last 11 games.

    Ryam Reaves has more Goals (6) than our entire 4th Line …errrr..
    THE IDENTITY LINE …. that is Edmonton’s Identity – ” No hope to score when 97 isnon the Bench “

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Edmonton’s 5-on-5 shooting percentage is 6.08 this season (7.48 last year; 8.28 in their playoff season)

    Here’s EDM’s top 10 5v5 SH% forwards who played over 200 min 5v5 in the 16/17 playoff year:

    Player SH%
    Patrick Maroon 16.8
    Tyler Pitlick 15.1
    Iiro Pakarinen 13.3
    Leon Draisaitl 12.6
    Benoit Pouliot 12.5
    David Desharnais 12.5
    Connor McDavid 11.0
    Matt Hendricks 10.5
    Jordan Eberle 9.0
    Milan Lucic 8.3

    7 are gone and 1 is MIA.

    Cause it’s gone daddy gone
    Your love is gone
    Gone daddy gone
    The love is gone away

  12. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    “So a team with an actual cap of ~61MM is ahead of EDM who is capped out and has Connor McDavid.”

    Yes, but 1 GM is a forward thinking Analytics guruu who has no place in hockey and 1 GM is a Cup Winning Harvard Law Degree man who Loves Heavy Hockey…….

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    “So a team with an actual cap of ~61MM is ahead of EDM who is capped out and has Connor McDavid.”

    Yes, but 1 GM is a forward thinking Analytics guruu who has no place in hockey and 1 GM is a Cup Winning Harvard Law Degree man who Loves Heavy Hockey…….

    I’ve like Chayka’s Pro Procurment a lot.

    I don’t’ think they draft very well though.

  14. jtblack says:

    LT: Fair to say tonight is a Must Win?

  15. Jaxon says:

    Re-posting…
    You know what sucks. If Yamamoto was sent down with only 9 games instead of 12 this season he wouldn’t have to be protected in the expansion draft. He was only 19 on September 15th, so AHL games are not considered professional for a 19 year old. If he was born 2 weeks earlier then it wouldn’t matter, he’d be considered a pro in the AHL. But he was only 19 on the cutoff date. They may lose him because of 3 games played. Why isn’t someone watching for this kind of thing 24-7. It should be someone’s full time job. If there is already someone watching this stuff, then maybe that person isn’t doing such a great job.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    No Maksimov for Team Russia WJC. Damn Russian politics.

    I guess he just didn’t make the team which is really odd:

    Russian Prospects

    @RUSProspects
    7m7 minutes ago
    More
    he played at the CAN/RUS Series in November, didn’t really impress, so coaches decided they can do without him.

  17. Jaxon says:

    Players currently without contracts for next season that may be of interest to Edmonton if they can manage to dump a lot of salary.

    RD:
    Erik Karlsson – 16 pts in 28 GP, 24:52 TOI – 9 pts in last 11GP. His speed, skill and minutes logged on the back end would be a game changer.
    Nick Jensen – solid D playing 2nd pair 19:49 TOI
    Tyler Myers – would be a decent 2nd pair on the right side. 19:10 TOI
    Alex Petrovic – 17:48 TOI
    Jan Rutta – 16:19 TOI

    LD
    Jake Gardiner – if Toronto can afford him they’ll re-sign him. I think he might command too much on the open market for a left D. 13pts in 28gp, 21:45 TOI
    Michael Del Zotto – reminds me of Schultz, offensively gifted but has a tough time defensively so maybe stay away from him unless he has improved in that aspect. 18:12 TOI
    Jordan Oesterle – great speed has played top pair minutes for much of his time since leaving Edmonton (with Duncan Keith in Chicago last season and now Oliver Ekman-Larsson in Arizona) – 17:47 TOI

    LW
    Artemi Panarin 29pts in 26GP, 19:33 TOI
    Matt Duchene 34pts in 28GP, 19:11 TOI
    Brock Nelson – 19pts in 26GP, 17:58 TOI
    Anders Lee – 21pts in 26GP, 17:38 TOI
    Jeff Skinner – 29pts in 29GP, 17:50 TOI
    Jakub Silfverberg – 11 pts in 24GP, 17:35 TOI

    RW
    Mark Stone – 30pts in 28GP, 19:47 TOI
    Jeff Skinner – would be an amzing pick up but I bet he re-signs with Buffalo as things are going well for him and the Sabres – 29pts in 29GP, 17:50 TOI
    Ryan Dzingel – 19pts in 26GP, 17:34 TOI
    Jordan Eberle – at a reduced cap that would be quite something. 13pts in 26GP, 16:48 TOI
    Richard Panik – 8pts in 23GP, 15:58 TOI

    C
    Matt Duchene – his speed would be amazing with McDavid. 34pts in 28GP, 19:11 TOI
    Kevin Hayes – 17pts in 28GP, 19:08 TOI
    Brock Nelson – 19pts in 26GP, 17:58 TOI
    Anders Lee (I don’t think he plays much C) – 21pts in 26GP, 17:38 TOI
    Ryan Dzingel (not sure he plays much C either, don’t know much about him) – 19pts in 26GP, 17:34 TOI

  18. Jaxon says:

    Do I understand correctly that if Lucic and Russell are still on the team in June of 2021, they will have to be protected as they have NMC with a Modified NTC whereas Sekera wouldn’t have to be protected as his NMC switches to a Modified NTC. That said, I believe they should all be traded before then, expect maybe Sekera (although he may be exempt by then due to career-ending injury clause).

    Today, Talbot can be asked for a 10 team trade list (probably would include teams closer to home or his AHL days such as TOR, OTT, BUF, BOS, or maybe to DAL where his wife is from or NSH, she’s a big country fan) Also Cup contenders like TBL, COL, WPG or maybe division rivals if he doesn’t want to get traded like CGY, ANA, SJS, VGK, ARI)
    On June 1, 2019, Russell can be asked for a 10 team trade list, in 2020 it becomes a 15 team list.
    On June 1, 2020, Sekera can be asked for a 15 team trade list.
    On June 1, 2021, Lucic can be asked for a 8 team trade list. I could see them retaining 50% for his final two years in a trade.

  19. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’ve like Chayka’s Pro Procurment a lot.

    I don’t’ think they draft very well though.

    Chayka took full control before 2016 draft and landed Keller / Chyrcrun.
    2017 – not sure
    2018 – too soon

    He might have had a hand in 2015 where AZ had 3 picks in the top 32 and did not do well … The Strome miss hurt bigtime as the franchose was looking for an Impact player @ #3

  20. Ben says:

    I don’t mean to be a Pessimistic Petunia, but after 28 games I’m pretty comfortable betting that this team misses the playoffs.

    Which is fine. PC gets turfed and 97 probably doesn’t ask out yet.

    What scares me is I don’t see any particular reason for optimism beyond that either–and particularly not if improvement is expected to come through the addition of rookie defensemen next year.

    They might have some space free up to add, but the last thing they need is a FA on another bad contract.

    So yeah. The Edmonton Oilers. Man. At least I remember the last half of the 80s.

  21. Jaxon says:

    If something clicks away from McDavid you’ve got to keep it. I’ve been scouring the CF%, GF% away from McDavid looking for best combos while giving McDavid players that have upped his CF% and GF% (which is rare).

    I know this would drive people crazy but Spooner (63.64CF% in a small sample 18min) – McDavid – Puljujarvi (54.72CF% in 356min.). McDavid is about 52.89CF% so they’ve both improved his CF%.

    Khaira (53.51CF% in 174min. w/ Drai w/o McD) – Draisaitl – Chiasson (48.88CF% in 96min. w/ Drai w/o McD ,slight improvement> but 83.33GF% as mentioned above). Draisaitl is about 48.41CF% away from McDavid.

    Lucic (50.57CF% in 755min. w/ Nuge, w/o McD) – Nugent-Hopkins – Rattie (50.62CF% in just 16min. w/ Nuge w/o McD) (or Yamamoto 53.26CF% in 39min). Nuge is about 48.99CF% away from McDavid.

    That would leave a 4th line of Caggiula – Brodziak – Kassian which I don’t mind as Caggiula (and Kassian for that matter) can run around like a buzzsaw looking like he’s doing lots while doing nothing good in limited minutes against lesser competition.

    Draisaitl didn’t improve Nugent-Hopkins as much as other players and Nuge didn’t improve Drai as much as other players so maybe they should be on 3 separate lines. Draisaitl is a slight improvement on McDavid’s numbers when together in CF% but not in GF%. McDavid’s GF% is better without Draisaitl.

    Also, for Khaira, Nugent-Hopkins is the only C that he didn’t improve the numbers for. He improved McDavid’s numbers in his 44 minutes with him. He improved Draisaitl’s numbers in his 174 minutes with him.

    Lucic is also good with Draisaitl at 57.42 CF% in 360minutes w/ Draisaitl w/o McD, but the GF% drops 1.5%

  22. dustrock says:

    LT, new Neil Young Songs for Judy is out, have you heard?

    Nothing like acoustic Neil in the 70s. Great setlist.

  23. jtblack says:

    Ben:
    I don’t mean to be a Pessimistic Petunia, but after 28 games I’m pretty comfortable betting that this team misses the playoffs.

    Which is fine. PC gets turfed and 97 probably doesn’t ask out yet.

    What scares me is I don’t see any particular reason for optimism beyond that either–and particularly not if improvement is expected to come through the addition of rookie defensemen next year.

    They might have some space free up to add, but the last thing they need is a FA on another bad contract.

    So yeah. The Edmonton Oilers. Man. At least I remember the last half of the 80s.

    Young players get at Bats this year.
    More young players (Bouch Benson McLeod 2019-1st rounder) get at Bats next yr.

    Team is finally good in year 6 of the McDavid Years

  24. jtblack says:

    Jaxon:
    If something clicks away from McDavid you’ve got to keep it. I’ve been scouring the CF%, GF% away from McDavid looking for best combos while giving McDavid players that have upped his CF% and GF% (which is rare).

    I know this would drive people crazy but Spooner (63.64CF% in a small sample) – McDavid – Puljujarvi (54.72CF%). McDavid is about 52.89CF% so they’ve both improved his CF%.

    Khaira (53.51CF%) – Draisaitl – Chiasson (48.88CF% ,slight improvement> but 83.33GF% as mentioned above). Draisaitl is about 48.41CF% away from McDavid.

    Lucic (50.57CF%) – Nugent-Hopkins – Rattie (50.62CF%) (or Yamamoto 53.26CF%). Nuge is about 48.99CF% away from McDavid.

    That would leave a 4th line of Caggiula – Brodziak – Kassian which I don’t mind as Caggiula (and Kassian for that matter) can run around like a buzzsaw looking like he’s doing lots while doing nothing good in limited minutes against lesser competition.

    Draisaitl didn’t improve Nugent-Hopkins as much as other players and Nuge didn’t improve Drai as much as other players so maybe they should be on 3 separate lines. Draisaitl is a slight improvement on McDavid’s numbers when together in CF% but not in GF%. McDavid’s GF% is better without Draisaitl.

    Also, for Khaira, Nugent-Hopkins is the only C that he didn’t improve the numbers for. He improved McDavid’s numbers in his 44 minutes with him. He improved Draisaitl’s numbers in his 174 minutes with him.

    Good info

  25. Jaxon says:

    jtblack: 1 GM is a Cup Winning Harvard Law Degree man who Loves Heavy Hockey…….

    And Jeff Gorton won Chiarelli that Cup.

  26. Justenvogt says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Chayka’s Picks:

    Good / Up Arrow:
    Barrett Hayton
    Clayton Keller
    Jakob Chychrun

    Bad / Down Arrow:
    Pierre-Olivier Joseph
    Depth picks aren’t showing much, yet.

    Probably give KG’s group the edge, especially with what’s bubbling under from the 2017 draft. When you measure the full body of work Chayka vs. Chiarelli, it’s not even close who you’d rather have running our ship.

  27. Justenvogt says:

    Jaxon,

    and Chara. Chia was right place right time. That is all.

  28. Jaxon says:

    Justenvogt:
    Jaxon,

    and Chara. Chia was right place right time. That is all.

    Yup.

  29. Bag of Pucks says:

    He’s a fairly minor player in the grand scheme of things, but one wonders how the usage or lack thereof of Aberg affected Chiarelli’s perspective on MacLellan?

    A good example of the GM finding a player with offensive talent that the HC couldn’t leverage. Disappointing to say the least. Todd MacLellan honestly thought Khaira, Kassian and Lucic were better options than Aberg.

  30. Justenvogt says:

    jtblack,

    And we almost assuredly will have anew GM. That alone is reason to celebrate.

  31. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Jaxon:
    Re-posting…
    You know what sucks. If Yamamoto was sent down with only 9 games instead of 12 this season he wouldn’t have to be protected in the expansion draft. He was only 19 on September 15th, so AHL games are not considered professional for a 19 year old. If he was born 2 weeks earlier then it wouldn’t matter, he’d be considered a pro in the AHL. But he was only 19 on the cutoff date. They may lose him because of 3 games played. Why isn’t someone watching for this kind of thing 24-7. It should be someone’s full time job. If there is already someone watching this stuff, then maybe that person isn’t doing such a great job.

    – His entry level contract started only this year, and is untill 2021. For the Vegas draft, all those players on entry-level were exempt. Unless they change the rules he too will be exempt for the 2021 “redraft”

  32. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    And Arizona has been injured like crazy. Didnt expect Raanta to break down more often than Smith did.

  33. Sierra says:

    jtblack:
    LT:Fair to say tonight is a Must Win?

    We are getting into “must win” territory

  34. Jethro Tull says:

    It’s pronounced”Harr-vadd”

  35. Wilde says:

    Justenvogt,

    I don’t think Hayton’s an up arrow right now.

    He’s producing, but he’d need to be closer to two points per game to be matching Kravstov or Zadina’s point paces given the strength of their respective leagues. and that’s who he should be measured against. I’d say he’s neither an up or down arrow.

    His lack of even strength scoring is pretty alarming too.

  36. Wilde says:

    Tyler Benson’s 1.71 primary assists per hour, estimated at prospect-stats, is the best mark for any U21 AHL player. The next highest are 1.50, 1.28, 1.28, 1.16 so he’s pretty far ahead here.

    He’s also a positive rel GF% player now too.

    e: That 5v5 primary assist rate is 8th in all AHLers of any age.

  37. hunter1909 says:

    jtblack: Team is finally good in year 6 of the McDavid Years

    I don’t believe you.

    Oilers need a 2005-6 Kevin Lowe to make astute trades and build the team up double fast. Developing slowly for a 20 year rebuild in year 16 of said rebuild is tormenting the fans, it won’t work anyway with this putrid management team.

    PS: Hall got benched. Try to trade for that loafer, he’d buy into Hitchcock’s system. Eberle might be another interesting mercenary deadline acquisition.

  38. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Jaxon:
    If something clicks away from McDavid you’ve got to keep it. I’ve been scouring the CF%, GF% away from McDavid looking for best combos while giving McDavid players that have upped his CF% and GF% (which is rare).

    I know this would drive people crazy but Spooner (63.64CF% in a small sample) – McDavid – Puljujarvi (54.72CF%). McDavid is about 52.89CF% so they’ve both improved his CF%.

    Khaira (53.51CF% w/ Drai w/o McD) – Draisaitl – Chiasson (48.88CF% w/ Drai w/o McD ,slight improvement> but 83.33GF% as mentioned above). Draisaitl is about 48.41CF% away from McDavid.

    Lucic (50.57CF% w/ Nuge, w/o McD) – Nugent-Hopkins – Rattie (50.62CF% w/ Nuge w/o McD) (or Yamamoto 53.26CF%). Nuge is about 48.99CF% away from McDavid.

    That would leave a 4th line of Caggiula – Brodziak – Kassian which I don’t mind as Caggiula (and Kassian for that matter) can run around like a buzzsaw looking like he’s doing lots while doing nothing good in limited minutes against lesser competition.

    Draisaitl didn’t improve Nugent-Hopkins as much as other players and Nuge didn’t improve Drai as much as other players so maybe they should be on 3 separate lines. Draisaitl is a slight improvement on McDavid’s numbers when together in CF% but not in GF%. McDavid’s GF% is better without Draisaitl.

    Also, for Khaira, Nugent-Hopkins is the only C that he didn’t improve the numbers for. He improved McDavid’s numbers in his 44 minutes with him. He improved Draisaitl’s numbers in his 174 minutes with him.

    Thanks for this. I like the general approach/method you are using here. Maybe if Zykov can contriubte in the top 3 lines it would send 27 to the 4th line. Spooner has had enough time to adjust. He needs to make contributions ASAP. Old coach didn’t like Strome very much (like he didn’t like Aberg, etc) and pushed to get rid of him instead of help him and help the team. My hope is that between Spooner and Zykov there can be legitimate additions to the top 9 pushing other less offensive players to the 4th line and hopefully at least one of the 5,000 4th liners on this roster to a trade for cap space…

  39. Jaxon says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – His entry level contract started only this year, and is untill 2021.For the Vegas draft, all those players on entry-level were exempt.Unless they change the rules he too will be exempt for the 2021 “redraft”

    It has nothing to do with ELC. You can still be drafted when on a ELC if you’ve played 3 years of pro hockey. Either 3 years of 10 games in the NHL, or if you’re over 19 years old in a year, 10 games in the AHL. So Yamamoto played 12 games in the NHL this year and that will be considered his first pro year. 2019-20, and 2020-21 will be his 2nd and 3rd years as a pro. Benson, being 20 on Sep.15 of this year, his AHL games will count as pro as will Bear and Jones and Marody. These are the same rules as Vegas.

    The one player I’m unsure of is Joel Persson as he only has a 1 year contract so far playing in European pro. I think he’ll need to be protected, too.

    Rules:
    “* All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club’s applicable protection limits).”
    https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-expansion-draft-rules/c-281010592

    and

    “Prospects
    All players with fewer than three years of professional experience are automatically exempt from selection. This also includes unsigned draft picks, and signed players that have yet to play a game.

    A year of professional experience is 10 professional games played under a NHL contract, including regular season and playoffs. For players who are aged 18 or 19* (on Sept. 15th of a given season), those specifically have to be NHL games. Everybody else it can be any league, as long as it’s under an NHL contract.

    *The exception is a “19-year-old” player who turns 20 between September 16th and December 31st, and signed their first contract that same calendar year. For those players all games under an NHL contract count, no matter what league.”
    https://www.silversevensens.com/2017/6/1/15718986/nhl-expansion-draft-a-primer-2017-las-vegas-golden-knights-rules-requirements-protection-exposure

  40. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers cling onto young prospects then fail to develop them. Why is that guy in the AHL getting such high praise, he’s barely been on the job down there for 3 months. Typical Oilers let’s hype the management like they’re the greatest then wait for them to fail; rinse and repeat.

  41. Yeti says:

    Wilde,

    Just saying thanks for the consistently interesting info and analysis you bring to the collective table.

  42. Death By Misadventure says:

    When is Reider expected to be back?

    I feel like Reider and Zykov could improve things.

    Need to separate the 3 centres to balance scoring. Mcdavid, Drai, and Nuge driving their own lines. If Drai can’t drive a line by now, then season’s over. Turn out the lights.

  43. Yeti says:

    Jaxon: If something clicks away from McDavid you’ve got to keep it. I’ve been scouring the CF%, GF% away from McDavid looking for best combos while giving McDavid players that have upped his CF% and GF% (which is rare).

    Interesting stuff! But just how small are some of those sample sizes?

  44. DBO says:

    would Hitch go with 3 good centres? Yes our lack of winger depth is painful (and the main reason Chia should be fired. Essentially Eberle for Spooner. Painful)

    How to cobble together 3 scoring lines. Magical unicorn that is the balance photo that has been teased by LT for over a decade. I want to see it dammit…. But it won’t happen yet.

    Cagguila-McDavid-Rattie
    Chaisson-Draisatl-Zykov
    Khaira-Nuge-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-Brodziak-Kassian

    Interestingly is if Benson and Yamamoto can step up mid year it does change the skill level at the NHL winger position (reminder Zykov scored very well in the AHL)

    Cagguila-McDavid-Rattie/trade deadline acquisition
    Zykov-Draisatl-Yamamoto
    Benson-Nuge-Puljujarvi

    Is this 3 scoring lines next year or by mid season? Can McDavid raise up two tweener wingers, giving most skilled to his other 2 centres? I know young, etc. But this is sadly the most skilled wingers we have in the system

  45. Death By Misadventure says:

    jtblack: Young players get at Bats this year.
    More young players (BouchBenson McLeod2019-1st rounder) get at Bats next yr.

    Team is finally good in year6 of the McDavid Years

    Yeah that’s my timeline as well. This and another year of suffering.

    Unless somehow they are able to dump the 15.5m tied up in Lucic, Russell, and Sekera this trade deadline or offseason and replace with compentant players.

    Highly unlikely.

    Cap going up will also make things easier, but that’s of little help compared to the 15.5m in underperforming contracts.

  46. texmex says:

    Death By Misadventure,

    He was hurt November 13th. Oilers announced on the 15th he was expected to be out a month. He’s probably 10-14 days away from returning.

  47. Durag says:

    https://theathletic.com/694176/2018/12/05/down-goes-brown-which-teams-have-the-best-and-worst-odds-of-winning-a-stanley-cup-in-the-next-five-years/

    Down Goes Brown’s article ranking every team’s odds of winning a Cup in the next 5 years. Oilers at #10. I agree with the logic and the timeline – they’re a mess but have McDavid, and the 5 year is based on a mini 3 year rebuild and 2 years of being a contender.

    The only scenario where I could see the Oilers being a Cup contender before 2022 is if Seattle brings a compliance buyout and a big cap increase, and we get a new GM to spend that newfound money.

  48. Sierra says:

    DBO:

    Cagguila-McDavid-Rattie
    Chaisson-Draisatl-Zykov
    Khaira-Nuge-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-Brodziak-Kassian

    I too have been wondering if McDavid, Cagg & Rattie could be successful as a line. It might be worth trying.

  49. Death By Misadventure says:

    Sierra: We are getting into “must win” territory

    All nights are must win for the Oilers. They are not good enough to not play their best and expect to win.

  50. russ99 says:

    IMO, letting the kids develop together in Bakersfield is just as important for our future than making the playoffs. It’s way past time for the Oilers to be patient and let players develop.

    If I’m willing to chalk up a season outside the postseason again it’s going to be for Hitchcock teaching the core how to play as a team to be competitive on the nights things aren’t going your way instead of giving kids at-bats well over their ability level for a run of games in garbage time again.

  51. russ99 says:

    Durag:
    https://theathletic.com/694176/2018/12/05/down-goes-brown-which-teams-have-the-best-and-worst-odds-of-winning-a-stanley-cup-in-the-next-five-years/

    Down Goes Brown’s article ranking every team’s odds of winning a Cup in the next 5 years. Oilers at #10. I agree with the logic and the timeline – they’re a mess but have McDavid, and the 5 year is based on a mini 3 year rebuild and 2 years of being a contender.

    The only scenario where I could see the Oilers being a Cup contender before 2022 is if Seattle brings a compliance buyout and a big cap increase, and we get a new GM to spend that newfound money.

    The cap crunch will loosen the next two years. The cap is going up at least $3M, and should continue to rise as Seattle’s expansion fees are paid.

    Only Puljujarvi and a goalie needs to be paid next summer. Lucic should be movable after next summer’s bonus with salary kept or can be bought out. Russell and Sekera lose trade protection. The team has to decide if giving Nuge a significant raise in two summers is worthwhile or if they should turn him into an impact player or two.

  52. Jaxon says:

    Yeti: Interesting stuff! But just how small are some of those sample sizes?

    I believe 40 minutes was the smallest sample I used except Spooner which I noted as small. I’ll add the minutes later today in an edit.

  53. Death By Misadventure says:

    texmex:
    Death By Misadventure,

    He was hurt November 13th. Oilers announced on the 15th he was expected to be out a month. He’s probably 10-14 days away from returning.

    Many thanks.

  54. McSorley33 says:

    Jaxon,

    Good information ……..thanks for posting.

  55. Death By Misadventure says:

    russ99:
    IMO, letting the kids develop together in Bakersfield is just as important for our future than making the playoffs. It’s way past time for the Oilers to be patient and let players develop.

    If I’m willing to chalk up a season outside the postseason again it’s going to be for Hitchcock teaching the core how to play as a team to be competitive on the nights things aren’t going your way instead of giving kids at-bats well over their ability level for a run of games in garbage time again.

    I agree. It’s why I can’t figure out why Chia caved when Hitch asked for Jesse to comeback. Should have left him in the A with the other kids needing ice time.

  56. Death By Misadventure says:

    russ99: The cap crunch will loosen the next two years. The cap is going up at least $3M, and should continue to rise as Seattle’s expansion fees are paid.

    I’m 90% certian that Seattle expansion fees do not factor into the league revenues and therefore the cap. The cap will only go up if Seattle is a big earner in terms of tickets, merch, tv etc.

  57. JustWatt says:

    DBO,

    I… kinda love those lines.

  58. McSorley33 says:

    russ99,

    IMO, letting the kids develop together in Bakersfield is just as important for our future than making the playoffs. It’s way past time for the Oilers to be patient and let players develop.
    ********************************************************************************************
    I have come to the same conclusion.

    Why let the kids fail up here?

    On the farm – they can learn & Excel down there. Maybe even build chemistry – together.

    Novel concept for this organization.

    There is Nothing going on up here with the big club.

  59. DBO says:

    No way Chia doesn’t make a move to run for playoffs. No playoffs and he is gone. I am less worried about dealing for a winger with an expiring deal then what he would do July 1st with free agency and his need to overpay and add no movement clauses to old dudes.

    And remember, our 1st round pick this year is expansion protected. So it has way more value then moving a current piece, like Yamamoto who still has potential and we won’t be able to protect (in all likelihood).

    What does Bear or Jones with Yamamto get you? Or Jesse? Not saying I want to do it, but looks like those are the kinds of pieces we will need to make a move.

    UFA wingers who won’t take huge amount (like Panarin)
    – Eberle (sigh..)
    – Nyquist
    – Simmonds
    – Lee

  60. Andy Dufresne says:

    In point form for those who dont have time to read this entire/long post:

    1) Bar Chia from making trades
    2) Allow Chia to move out replacement level players to create cap space
    3) Create $8m in cap space over the next 8 months combined with $3m Cap increase
    4) Let whoever is the GM on July 1st sign $6m scoring winger and $5m offenisve ninded 2RHD in Free Agency.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Heres an approach to improving the team that I would recommend based on the following two principles

    1) We need to acquire a top line scoring fwd AND an offensive minded 2nd pairing RHD WITHOUT allowing Chiarelli to trade any of our core assets.

    2) We treat all non-core assets as CAP UNITS

    PREFACE:

    This is all assuming we CANNOT move out contracts like Lucic, Sekera and Russell.

    We live in a Cap system. Cap space is a hard asset. $6 million dollars in cap space is typically equal in value to a $6 million dollar body/player. (value contracts and untradeable contracts are the exceptions)

    We are loaded up with a plethora of bottom six players. So much so that we could afford to let a player like Aberg exit the system for no return. Combine that fact with the idea/fact that Chiarelli seems to have a specific talent for finding and acquiring bottom six and middle six talent on the cheap.

    Maroon, Cagguila, Khaira, Aberg, Chaisson, Reider, Rattie, Roy, Letestu, Zykov, Kassian (valuations may vary)

    The same principle may apply, to a lesser extent, to defencemen.
    Gravel, Benning, Wideman, Garrison, Perrson.

    OBJECTIVE:

    This is simply about how to transform the team over the next 8 months without having to trust Chiarelli on a big trade and still getting a top six shooter AND an offensive 2RHD.

    APPROACH:

    DONT GET TOO FOCUSED ON THE NAMES OF THE ASSETS OR THE EXACT DOLLARS MENTIONED.
    Approach to this is that we need to leverage Chia’s proven ability to backfill bottom 6 fwd’s and bottom pair D.

    We need to view these assets (listed above) as pure blocks of cap space (called replacement level players)

    Simply GIVE AWAY ( 2 at the trade deadline and 2 during free agency and 2 on expiring contracts) which ever of these assets gets us to a target dollar/cap number for our desired future acquisitions. (give them away for picks)

    FINANCIAL CALCULATIONS:

    SO, in free agency we want to bring in a $6 million dollar scoring forward and a $5 million RHD.

    We need $11 million in cap space to do so.

    2019-2020 Cap goes up by 3 Million. We need $8 million.

    Spooner $3.1m Kassian $1.95m Caggiula $1.5m Benning $1.9m Garrison $650k Wideman $1m
    Thats $10.1 million $2.1m to spare

    Now my numbers are loose, and you can mix and match on line matchups (not important). Now the backfill cost to replace Spooner, Kassian, Cagguila…..Well one space is already accounted for by the cost of the new UFA scorer, so the additional cost to roster in the EXAMPLE below is Hebig + Maroday $925k and $760 = $1.685m $2.1m – $1.685m (backfill cost) $415k call it a wash.

    RNH McDavid Chaisson
    $6m FA Draisaitl JP
    Zykov Khaira Reider
    Lucic Brodziak Hebig/Russell
    Rattie/Marody

    Klefbom Larsson
    Nurse $5m FA RHD
    Sekera Russell
    Bouchard Gravel

    Koskinen $3.5m UFA Backup G $1m Potential Savings $6.66m – $4.5m = $2.1 million to account for addition on Reider who is currently LTIR.

    TIMING:

    Move Kassian and Benning (an possibly Talbot) at the deadline, Move Spooner and Caggiula post season, Talbot Wideman and Garrison are all on expiring contracts.

    CONCLUSION:

    Is any of this possible? Who knows…..but the general approach is to revamp our roster over the next 8 months without allowing Chiarelli to make any major trades, until such a time as his fate as the GM is decided one way or the other. In the mean time we dont sit in limbo wating for fate to decide for us. We let Chiarelli make the moves that free up the cap space, then at years end we decide who will be the GM…. BEFORE any free agents get signed.

  61. HugThePost says:

    Even if we make it close at the end and just miss the playoffs or eek into the playoffs and get soundly beat in round 1, does Chia keep his job?

    I kind of think he and the org will part ways no matter what after this season; he has wasted Connor’s first 5 years and decimated the pro roster’s scoring talent.

  62. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Anders Lee was just named captain of the isles, I doubt he goes to UFA

  63. Craig Zonit says:

    Wilde:
    Tyler Benson’s 1.71 primary assists per hour, estimated at prospect-stats, is the best mark for any U21 AHL player. The next highest are 1.50, 1.28, 1.28, 1.16 so he’s pretty far ahead here.

    That 5v5 primary assist rate is 8th in all AHLers of any age.

    Interesting catch. Your point in the last thread is well made that the Oilers badly need triggermen to complement the playmaking kids. Puljujarvi is not that guy unless his game fundamentally transforms. And the pro procurement gives little hope. Time to spend some draft bullets on shooters now that the D are matriculating in pro. Love your work, Wilde.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    Caggiula has a a minor hand injury and won’t play tonight – Patrick Russell will play with Spooner and Rattie.

  65. JimmyV1965 says:

    Death By Misadventure: I agree. It’s why I can’t figure out why Chia caved when Hitch asked for Jesse to comeback. Should have left him in the A with the other kids needing ice time.

    I seriously doubt Hitch asked for JP. I suspect Chia asked Hitch if he was willing to play JP and the coach sold it as his own idea.

  66. ArmchairGM says:

    DBO:
    Cagguila-McDavid-Rattie
    Chaisson-Draisatl-Zykov
    Khaira-Nuge-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-Brodziak-Kassian

    Why do you have Draisaitl’s wingers both playing out of position? Wouldn’t it make more sense to have the LW on the left side and the RW on the right?

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    As an aside, I guess Spooner wasn’t sick for the DAL game but had a minor injury – he’s back tonight.

  68. Professor Q says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Anders Lee was just named captain of the isles, I doubt he goes to UFA

    And called out Tavares as a traitor. It’d be odd to go against his own word.

  69. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Heres an approach to improving the team that I would recommend based on the following two principles

    1) We need to acquire a top line scoring fwd AND an offensive minded 2nd pairing RHD WITHOUT allowing Chiarelli to trade any of our core assets.

    2) We treat all non-core assets as CAP UNITS

    PREFACE:

    This is all assuming we CANNOT move out contracts like Lucic, Sekera and Russell.

    We live in a Cap system. Cap space is a hard asset. $6 million dollars in cap space is typically equal in value to a $6 million dollar body/player. (value contracts and untradeable contracts are the exceptions)

    We are loaded up with a plethora of bottom six players. So much so that we could afford to let a player like Aberg exit the system for no return. Combine that fact with the idea/fact that Chiarelli seems to have a specific talent for finding and acquiring bottom six and middle six talent on the cheap.

    Maroon, Cagguila, Khaira, Aberg, Chaisson, Reider, Rattie, Roy, Letestu, Zykov, Kassian (valuations may vary)

    The same principle may apply, to a lesser extent,to defencemen.
    Gravel, Benning, Wideman, Garrison, Perrson.

    OBJECTIVE:

    This is simply about how to transform the team over the next 8 months without having to trust Chiarelli on a big trade and still getting a top six shooter AND an offensive 2RHD.

    APPROACH:

    DONT GET TOO FOCUSED ON THE NAMES OF THE ASSETS OR THE EXACT DOLLARS MENTIONED.
    Approach to this is that we need to leverage Chia’s proven ability to backfill bottom 6 fwd’s and bottom pair D.

    We need to view these assets (listed above) as pure blocks of cap space (called replacement level players)

    Simply GIVE AWAY ( 2 at the trade deadline and 2 during free agencyand 2 on expiring contracts) which ever of these assets gets us to a targetdollar/cap number for our desired future acquisitions. (give them away for picks)

    FINANCIAL CALCULATIONS:

    SO, in free agency we want to bring in a $6 million dollar scoring forward and a $5 million RHD.

    We need $11 million in cap space to do so.

    2019-2020 Cap goes up by 3 Million. We need $8 million.

    Spooner $3.1mKassian $1.95m Caggiula $1.5mBenning $1.9m Garrison $650k Wideman $1mThats $10.1 million$2.1m to spare

    Now my numbers are loose, and you can mix and match on line matchups (not important). Now the backfill cost to replace Spooner, Kassian, Cagguila…..Well one space is already accounted for by the cost of the new UFA scorer, so the additional cost to roster in the EXAMPLE below is Hebig + Maroday $925k and $760 = $1.685m$2.1m – $1.685m (backfill cost)$415k call it a wash.

    RNHMcDavid Chaisson
    $6m FADraisaitl JP
    ZykovKhairaReider
    LucicBrodziak Hebig/Russell
    Rattie/Marody

    KlefbomLarsson
    Nurse$5m FA RHD
    SekeraRussell
    BouchardGravel

    Koskinen $3.5m UFA Backup G$1m Potential Savings$6.66m – $4.5m = $2.1 million to account for addition on Reider who is currently LTIR.

    TIMING:

    Move Kassian and Benning (an possibly Talbot) at the deadline, Move Spooner and Caggiula post season, Talbot Wideman and Garrison are all on expiring contracts.

    CONCLUSION:

    Is any of this possible? Who knows…..but the general approach is to revamp our roster over the next 8 months without allowing Chiarelli to make any major trades, until such a time as his fate as the GM is decided one way or the other. In the mean time we dont sit in limbo wating for fate to decide for us. We let Chiarelli make the moves that free up the cap space, then at years end we decide who will be the GM…. BEFORE any free agents get signed.

    I respectfully suggest that spending $11 mill in free agency will end in disaster and put us in further cap hell. The only UFAs worth signing are the guys available after the first week.

  70. texmex says:

    Man, the flames have scored 100 goals this season. Jeebuzz

  71. npanciroli says:

    Get a new GM. Then just keep drafting the way you have been, no big trades unless you get a sweet deal to dump Russell Sekera or Lucic and make sure you don’t need to protect any of them.

    Go into Seattle expansion with the goal of competing that year sooner isn’t happening.

    Re-sign RNH, Nurse and Larsson. Protect whoever else is good at that point.

    Go into 2021-2022 with this as your template and fill the gaps with whatever prospects have developed and use the cap space wisely.

    Draisaitl McDavid x
    X RNH x

    Klefbom Larsson
    Nurse x

  72. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Yeah – I thought the verbal was “nicked up” following Vegas Game.

    I’ve not minded Patrick Russel’s work so far, but what I wouldn’t give for Rieder to be back already.

  73. HT Joe says:

    texmex:
    Man, the flames have scored 100 goals this season. Jeebuzz

    Does anyone know if a bunch of 1980’s era ex-Flames are enmeshed into the management of the Flames organization? I’m curious, since they seem to have made many moves over the last few years to get progressively better, and unfortunately Katz’s team seems to have been moving in the opposite direction.

  74. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: Chayka took full control before 2016 draft and landed Keller / Chyrcrun.
    2017 – not sure
    2018 – too soon

    He might have had a hand in 2015 where AZ had 3 picks in the top 32 and did not do well … The Strome miss hurt bigtime as the franchose was looking for an Impact player @ #3

    Yeah, Keller and Chychrun were great picks.

    Maybe I’m grading them too hard for reaching for Haydon last year

  75. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Justenvogt:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Chayka’s Picks:

    Good / Up Arrow:
    Barrett Hayton
    Clayton Keller
    Jakob Chychrun

    Bad / Down Arrow:
    Pierre-Olivier Joseph
    Depth picks aren’t showing much, yet.

    Probably give KG’s group the edge, especially with what’s bubbling under from the 2017 draft. When you measure the full body of work Chayka vs. Chiarelli, it’s not even close who you’d rather have running our ship.

    Good list.

    Also,

    I would rather have a magic 8 ball run EDM than Chiarelli

  76. npanciroli says:

    Who does everyone want if we get a new GM? I’m not really aware of potential options.

  77. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    And Arizona has been injured like crazy.Didnt expect Raanta to break down more often than Smith did.

    It’s a shame, I like Raanta.

    Their goalie depth has been much better this year.

    Hill has been lights out and Kuemper has been solid and is back from IR now

  78. Pescador says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    In point form for those who dont have time to read this entire/long post:

    1) Bar Chia from making trades
    2) Allow Chia to move out replacement level players to create cap space
    3) Create $8m in cap space over the next 8 months combined with $3m Cap increase
    4) Let whoever is the GM on July 1st sign $6m scoring winger and $5m offenisve ninded 2RHD in Free Agency.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Heres an approach to improving the team that I would recommend based on the following two principles

    1) We need to acquire a top line scoring fwd AND an offensive minded 2nd pairing RHD WITHOUT allowing Chiarelli to trade any of our core assets.

    2) We treat all non-core assets as CAP UNITS

    PREFACE:

    This is all assuming we CANNOT move out contracts like Lucic, Sekera and Russell.

    We live in a Cap system. Cap space is a hard asset. $6 million dollars in cap space is typically equal in value to a $6 million dollar body/player. (value contracts and untradeable contracts are the exceptions)

    We are loaded up with a plethora of bottom six players. So much so that we could afford to let a player like Aberg exit the system for no return. Combine that fact with the idea/fact that Chiarelli seems to have a specific talent for finding and acquiring bottom six and middle six talent on the cheap.

    Maroon, Cagguila, Khaira, Aberg, Chaisson, Reider, Rattie, Roy, Letestu, Zykov, Kassian (valuations may vary)

    The same principle may apply, to a lesser extent,to defencemen.
    Gravel, Benning, Wideman, Garrison, Perrson.

    OBJECTIVE:

    This is simply about how to transform the team over the next 8 months without having to trust Chiarelli on a big trade and still getting a top six shooter AND an offensive 2RHD.

    APPROACH:

    DONT GET TOO FOCUSED ON THE NAMES OF THE ASSETS OR THE EXACT DOLLARS MENTIONED.
    Approach to this is that we need to leverage Chia’s proven ability to backfill bottom 6 fwd’s and bottom pair D.

    We need to view these assets (listed above) as pure blocks of cap space (called replacement level players)

    Simply GIVE AWAY ( 2 at the trade deadline and 2 during free agencyand 2 on expiring contracts) which ever of these assets gets us to a targetdollar/cap number for our desired future acquisitions. (give them away for picks)

    FINANCIAL CALCULATIONS:

    SO, in free agency we want to bring in a $6 million dollar scoring forward and a $5 million RHD.

    We need $11 million in cap space to do so.

    2019-2020 Cap goes up by 3 Million. We need $8 million.

    Spooner $3.1mKassian $1.95m Caggiula $1.5mBenning $1.9m Garrison $650k Wideman $1mThats $10.1 million$2.1m to spare

    Now my numbers are loose, and you can mix and match on line matchups (not important). Now the backfill cost to replace Spooner, Kassian, Cagguila…..Well one space is already accounted for by the cost of the new UFA scorer, so the additional cost to roster in the EXAMPLE below is Hebig + Maroday $925k and $760 = $1.685m$2.1m – $1.685m (backfill cost)$415k call it a wash.

    RNHMcDavid Chaisson
    $6m FADraisaitl JP
    ZykovKhairaReider
    LucicBrodziak Hebig/Russell
    Rattie/Marody

    KlefbomLarsson
    Nurse$5m FA RHD
    SekeraRussell
    BouchardGravel

    Koskinen $3.5m UFA Backup G$1m Potential Savings$6.66m – $4.5m = $2.1 million to account for addition on Reider who is currently LTIR.

    TIMING:

    Move Kassian and Benning (an possibly Talbot) at the deadline, Move Spooner and Caggiula post season, Talbot Wideman and Garrison are all on expiring contracts.

    CONCLUSION:

    Is any of this possible? Who knows…..but the general approach is to revamp our roster over the next 8 months without allowing Chiarelli to make any major trades, until such a time as his fate as the GM is decided one way or the other. In the mean time we dont sit in limbo wating for fate to decide for us. We let Chiarelli make the moves that free up the cap space, then at years end we decide who will be the GM…. BEFORE any free agents get signed.

    YammerMotor?
    Appreciate the work you put in & yes
    2RD
    Top 6 LW are highest priority, absolutely essential
    Not going anywhere anytime until addressed

  79. HT Joe says:

    npanciroli: Re-sign RNH, Nurse and Larsson. Protect whoever else is good at that point.

    Go into 2021-2022 with this as your template and fill the gaps with whatever prospects have developed and use the cap space wisely.

    Draisaitl McDavid x
    X RNH x

    Klefbom Larsson
    Nurse x

    I agree with your comment and plan.

    But man, Katz formalized the re-build in the spring of 2010. In a few months, that will have been 9 years. And now, our plan is that in 2 years time (i.e., 11 years after the rebuild), we’ll have 6 core players signed for the rebuild (and Nurse isn’t having a “core-player” type year so far in a lot of ways).
    – This is assuming that RNH, Nurse, and Larsson are on board to re-sign with this tire-fire team.
    – Unless magic happens, Lucic will still be signed with the team.
    – At least Russel and Sekera will be off the books by then (and shouldn’t the Pouliott and Gryba buy-outs be off the books too by then?)

  80. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: I seriously doubt Hitch asked for JP. I suspect Chia asked Hitch if he was willing to play JP and the coach sold it as his own idea.

    Hitchcock said it was 90% his idea. You really want us to take you seriously?

  81. HT Joe says:

    Andy Dufresne: In point form for those who dont have time to read this entire/long post:

    1) Bar Chia from making trades
    2) Allow Chia to move out replacement level players to create cap space
    3) Create $8m in cap space over the next 8 months combined with $3m Cap increase
    4) Let whoever is the GM on July 1st sign $6m scoring winger and $5m offenisve ninded 2RHD in Free Agency.

    What’s Tambellini up to? Swap him for Chia over the next 8 months… he won’t make any trades (still evaluating), and he had left the team in a pretty good Cap situation. He’s also been gold regarding draft lotteries. Keep Keith Gretzky to run the draft.

    I’m not entirely joking… I would trade Chia for Tambellini right now for what needs to be done for the rest of the season. (Long Term – need someone else)

  82. who says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    In point form for those who dont have time to read this entire/long post:

    1) Bar Chia from making trades
    2) Allow Chia to move out replacement level players to create cap space
    3) Create $8m in cap space over the next 8 months combined with $3m Cap increase
    4) Let whoever is the GM on July 1st sign $6m scoring winger and $5m offenisve ninded 2RHD in Free Agency.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Heres an approach to improving the team that I would recommend based on the following two principles

    1) We need to acquire a top line scoring fwd AND an offensive minded 2nd pairing RHD WITHOUT allowing Chiarelli to trade any of our core assets.

    2) We treat all non-core assets as CAP UNITS

    PREFACE:

    This is all assuming we CANNOT move out contracts like Lucic, Sekera and Russell.

    We live in a Cap system. Cap space is a hard asset. $6 million dollars in cap space is typically equal in value to a $6 million dollar body/player. (value contracts and untradeable contracts are the exceptions)

    We are loaded up with a plethora of bottom six players. So much so that we could afford to let a player like Aberg exit the system for no return. Combine that fact with the idea/fact that Chiarelli seems to have a specific talent for finding and acquiring bottom six and middle six talent on the cheap.

    Maroon, Cagguila, Khaira, Aberg, Chaisson, Reider, Rattie, Roy, Letestu, Zykov, Kassian (valuations may vary)

    The same principle may apply, to a lesser extent,to defencemen.
    Gravel, Benning, Wideman, Garrison, Perrson.

    OBJECTIVE:

    This is simply about how to transform the team over the next 8 months without having to trust Chiarelli on a big trade and still getting a top six shooter AND an offensive 2RHD.

    APPROACH:

    DONT GET TOO FOCUSED ON THE NAMES OF THE ASSETS OR THE EXACT DOLLARS MENTIONED.
    Approach to this is that we need to leverage Chia’s proven ability to backfill bottom 6 fwd’s and bottom pair D.

    We need to view these assets (listed above) as pure blocks of cap space (called replacement level players)

    Simply GIVE AWAY ( 2 at the trade deadline and 2 during free agencyand 2 on expiring contracts) which ever of these assets gets us to a targetdollar/cap number for our desired future acquisitions. (give them away for picks)

    FINANCIAL CALCULATIONS:

    SO, in free agency we want to bring in a $6 million dollar scoring forward and a $5 million RHD.

    We need $11 million in cap space to do so.

    2019-2020 Cap goes up by 3 Million. We need $8 million.

    Spooner $3.1mKassian $1.95m Caggiula $1.5mBenning $1.9m Garrison $650k Wideman $1mThats $10.1 million$2.1m to spare

    Now my numbers are loose, and you can mix and match on line matchups (not important). Now the backfill cost to replace Spooner, Kassian, Cagguila…..Well one space is already accounted for by the cost of the new UFA scorer, so the additional cost to roster in the EXAMPLE below is Hebig + Maroday $925k and $760 = $1.685m$2.1m – $1.685m (backfill cost)$415k call it a wash.

    RNHMcDavid Chaisson
    $6m FADraisaitl JP
    ZykovKhairaReider
    LucicBrodziak Hebig/Russell
    Rattie/Marody

    KlefbomLarsson
    Nurse$5m FA RHD
    SekeraRussell
    BouchardGravel

    Koskinen $3.5m UFA Backup G$1m Potential Savings$6.66m – $4.5m = $2.1 million to account for addition on Reider who is currently LTIR.

    TIMING:

    Move Kassian and Benning (an possibly Talbot) at the deadline, Move Spooner and Caggiula post season, Talbot Wideman and Garrison are all on expiring contracts.

    CONCLUSION:

    Is any of this possible? Who knows…..but the general approach is to revamp our roster over the next 8 months without allowing Chiarelli to make any major trades, until such a time as his fate as the GM is decided one way or the other. In the mean time we dont sit in limbo wating for fate to decide for us. We let Chiarelli make the moves that free up the cap space, then at years end we decide who will be the GM…. BEFORE any free agents get signed.

    I like your thinking. The easiest way to create a little cap space is to trade guys like Benning, Kassian, Cagguila, etc. Spooner at $3.1 mil is a little tougher.
    However, I’m not sure that Benning and Kassian are that easy to move at their current production level either. I would almost give them away to get the money off the books. Both are replaceable at under 1 million.
    This is the new NHL. You pay your stars and everyone else works for 1 million or less

  83. npanciroli says:

    HT Joe,

    It really is brutal to think about.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    PennersPancakes:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Did Samorukov make it?

    Yes.

    He’s a lock.

    He was great in the tournament last year and even better in the Super Series last month.

    He may be wearing a letter and should play a prominent role.

  85. Jaxon says:

    Yeti: Interesting stuff! But just how small are some of those sample sizes?

    Spooner 18 minutes (too small)
    Puljujarvi 356 minutes – substantial time with significant uptick in CF%
    Khaira 174 minutes – decent amount of time with significant uptick in CF%
    Chiasson 96 minutes – still a bit small, but keep him with Draisaitl while the heat is on
    Lucic 755 minutes – large sample and decent uptick in CF% (GF% is the worry but it isn’t drastically reduced)
    Rattie 16 minutes – too small of a sample but Rattie was a drag on McDavid’s CF% so he’s a better fit with Nuge for the time being.
    Yamamoto 39 minutes – pretty small sample but a huge uptick in CF%, so I’d try him with Nuge if he gets called up.
    Rieder and Zykov throw a wrench into everything. I hope Khaira can prove himself soon. He is a pretty consistent CF% increase with skilled players.

  86. who says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    In point form for those who dont have time to read this entire/long post:

    1) Bar Chia from making trades
    2) Allow Chia to move out replacement level players to create cap space
    3) Create $8m in cap space over the next 8 months combined with $3m Cap increase
    4) Let whoever is the GM on July 1st sign $6m scoring winger and $5m offenisve ninded 2RHD in Free Agency.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Heres an approach to improving the team that I would recommend based on the following two principles

    1) We need to acquire a top line scoring fwd AND an offensive minded 2nd pairing RHD WITHOUT allowing Chiarelli to trade any of our core assets.

    2) We treat all non-core assets as CAP UNITS

    PREFACE:

    This is all assuming we CANNOT move out contracts like Lucic, Sekera and Russell.

    We live in a Cap system. Cap space is a hard asset. $6 million dollars in cap space is typically equal in value to a $6 million dollar body/player. (value contracts and untradeable contracts are the exceptions)

    We are loaded up with a plethora of bottom six players. So much so that we could afford to let a player like Aberg exit the system for no return. Combine that fact with the idea/fact that Chiarelli seems to have a specific talent for finding and acquiring bottom six and middle six talent on the cheap.

    Maroon, Cagguila, Khaira, Aberg, Chaisson, Reider, Rattie, Roy, Letestu, Zykov, Kassian (valuations may vary)

    The same principle may apply, to a lesser extent,to defencemen.
    Gravel, Benning, Wideman, Garrison, Perrson.

    OBJECTIVE:

    This is simply about how to transform the team over the next 8 months without having to trust Chiarelli on a big trade and still getting a top six shooter AND an offensive 2RHD.

    APPROACH:

    DONT GET TOO FOCUSED ON THE NAMES OF THE ASSETS OR THE EXACT DOLLARS MENTIONED.
    Approach to this is that we need to leverage Chia’s proven ability to backfill bottom 6 fwd’s and bottom pair D.

    We need to view these assets (listed above) as pure blocks of cap space (called replacement level players)

    Simply GIVE AWAY ( 2 at the trade deadline and 2 during free agencyand 2 on expiring contracts) which ever of these assets gets us to a targetdollar/cap number for our desired future acquisitions. (give them away for picks)

    FINANCIAL CALCULATIONS:

    SO, in free agency we want to bring in a $6 million dollar scoring forward and a $5 million RHD.

    We need $11 million in cap space to do so.

    2019-2020 Cap goes up by 3 Million. We need $8 million.

    Spooner $3.1mKassian $1.95m Caggiula $1.5mBenning $1.9m Garrison $650k Wideman $1mThats $10.1 million$2.1m to spare

    Now my numbers are loose, and you can mix and match on line matchups (not important). Now the backfill cost to replace Spooner, Kassian, Cagguila…..Well one space is already accounted for by the cost of the new UFA scorer, so the additional cost to roster in the EXAMPLE below is Hebig + Maroday $925k and $760 = $1.685m$2.1m – $1.685m (backfill cost)$415k call it a wash.

    RNHMcDavid Chaisson
    $6m FADraisaitl JP
    ZykovKhairaReider
    LucicBrodziak Hebig/Russell
    Rattie/Marody

    KlefbomLarsson
    Nurse$5m FA RHD
    SekeraRussell
    BouchardGravel

    Koskinen $3.5m UFA Backup G$1m Potential Savings$6.66m – $4.5m = $2.1 million to account for addition on Reider who is currently LTIR.

    TIMING:

    Move Kassian and Benning (an possibly Talbot) at the deadline, Move Spooner and Caggiula post season, Talbot Wideman and Garrison are all on expiring contracts.

    CONCLUSION:

    Is any of this possible? Who knows…..but the general approach is to revamp our roster over the next 8 months without allowing Chiarelli to make any major trades, until such a time as his fate as the GM is decided one way or the other. In the mean time we dont sit in limbo wating for fate to decide for us. We let Chiarelli make the moves that free up the cap space, then at years end we decide who will be the GM…. BEFORE any free agents get signed.

    I also agree with JimmyV.
    Signing two free agents for 11 million might just leave us with 2 more bad contracts to get rid of.
    The Oilers will have to be very careful, especially with term, if they use this potential cap space.
    Better to do nothing at all than to sign the wrong guy to a bad contract.

  87. McSorley33 says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Good Post Andy.

    I think the new GM is going to clean house on the forward front ( or try to)- except for maybe Chiasson and Rieder ( if he can resign him ) .

    I suspect the new GM will come in with some new thoughts .

    Not sure if the answers can be found in the UFA market for 2RD and scoring winger.

  88. OmJo says:

    Just dropping in to say Happy Birthday, LT!

  89. Jaxon says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    “SO, in free agency we want to bring in a $6 million dollar scoring forward and a $5 million RHD.”

    Who would you suggest they spend that on.

    RD:
    Erik Karlsson – 16 pts in 28 GP, 24:52 TOI – 9 pts in last 11GP. His speed, skill and minutes logged on the back end would be a game changer.
    Nick Jensen – solid D playing 2nd pair 19:49 TOI
    Tyler Myers – would be a decent 2nd pair on the right side. 19:10 TOI
    Alex Petrovic – 17:48 TOI
    Jan Rutta – 16:19 TOI

    I doubt you can get Karlsson for less than $10M. That leaves Jensen, Myers, and Petrovic as the next best candidates and they aren’t exactly difference makers. I’m not sure if even trust them as solid 2RDs. Definitely don’t spend $5M on any of them.

    LW
    Artemi Panarin 29pts in 26GP, 19:33 TOI
    Matt Duchene 34pts in 28GP, 19:11 TOI
    Brock Nelson – 19pts in 26GP, 17:58 TOI
    Anders Lee – 21pts in 26GP, 17:38 TOI
    Jeff Skinner – 29pts in 29GP, 17:50 TOI
    Jakub Silfverberg – 11 pts in 24GP, 17:35 TOI

    RW
    Mark Stone – 30pts in 28GP, 19:47 TOI
    Jeff Skinner – would be an amzing pick up but I bet he re-signs with Buffalo as things are going well for him and the Sabres – 29pts in 29GP, 17:50 TOI
    Ryan Dzingel – 19pts in 26GP, 17:34 TOI
    Jordan Eberle – at a reduced cap that would be quite something. 13pts in 26GP, 16:48 TOI

    Panarin, Duchene, Skinner, and Stone seem to be the only candidates assuming they all make it to free agency before re-signing (unlikely). Maybe Eberle at a reduced price but I doubt it for numerous reasons. EDIT: not sure I’d be big on Stone. While his sharing has improved enough to be a very good NHLer, I’m not sure I’d trust him to keep up with McDavid. Duchenne and Skinner, on the other hand, are very fast and could Excel flying down McDavid’s wing. I would expect that if McDavid has a winger option keeping up on his breakaways they’re going to score more.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – His entry level contract started only this year, and is untill 2021.For the Vegas draft, all those players on entry-level were exempt.Unless they change the rules he too will be exempt for the 2021 “redraft”

    Any player that turns pro this year, including Yamamoto, is eligible for the expansion draft given the one-year delay.

    The parameter is not “on an ELC”, its 2 years of pro.

    Those that just completed their 2nd year of pro will remain exempt – Yamamoto will have completed 3 years of pro.

  91. dustrock says:

    Indeed, many happy returns LT!

  92. McSorley33 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    No Maksimov for Team Russia WJC. Damn Russian politics.
    *************************************************************************
    Not sure it is politics.

    This player was a big disappointment ( for me ) at training camp.

    His skating is an issue. Now, I don’t know ( have not seen him play junior this year)
    I am just speculating that the pace
    of play among the elites of his age may subdue his impact here – for team Russia.

    Not sure if this skating issue will translate well into the modern NHL

    “One of his knocks was his skating” Keith Gretzky

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Death By Misadventure:
    When is Reider expected to be back?

    I feel like Reider and Zykov could improve things.

    Need to separate the 3 centres to balance scoring. Mcdavid, Drai, and Nuge driving their own lines. If Drai can’t drive a line by now, then season’s over. Turn out the lights.

    Stauffer mentioned 10-14 days from now for Rieder.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    Death By Misadventure: I’m 90% certian that Seattle expansion fees do not factor into the league revenues and therefore the cap. The cap will only go up if Seattle is a big earner in terms of tickets, merch, tv etc.

    Expansion fee is NOT included in HRR so it does not affect the cap, however, SEA’s addition to the league should help to increase HRR and indirectly raise the cap – could be nominal though.

  95. nafnikufesin says:

    The idea that our shooting percentage will regress to the mean assumes that the calibre of our shooters is at the level of mean NHL players. If you had a team full of, well, me, for example, you’d be lucky to see a shooting percentage of 1%, and there is no way that my shooting percentage would ever “regress to the mean” of the NHL. Not all PDOs are created equal.

  96. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yamamoto will have completed 3 years of pro.

    By only 3 games at this point. If he had only played 9 NHL games this season his AHL time wouldn’t count as a year of pro hockey as he was still only 19 on September 15 of this year.

  97. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: Expansion fee is NOT included in HRR so it does not affect the cap, however, SEA’s addition to the league should help to increase HRR and indirectly raise the cap – could be nominal though.

    Do you know if the upcoming new American TV deal and the recent MGM gambling and stats deal count toward revenues? They could be substantial. Maybe not next year but soon, no?

  98. Material Elvis says:

    OriginalPouzar: Expansion fee is NOT included in HRR so it does not affect the cap, however, SEA’s addition to the league should help to increase HRR and indirectly raise the cap – could be nominal though.

    The only substantial increase to the cap moving forward would be if the Canadian dollar increased to the 80-90 cent range. I don’t see that happening anytime soon.

  99. McSorley33 says:

    GM Candidate for Oilers GM this Summer: ( the idea to come up with a list of guys )

    I will throw Ron Hextall out there…..one of the best prospect pools built in the NHL.

    No rash trades or deviating from his plan. That actually got him fired.

    He exudes patience.

    Signed Sean C to 6 year – 4.33 AAV

    Bonus Points for Hextall – maybe more inclined to tell K Lowe, Howson, Mac T and co.. to
    F%$& &^&#

  100. Jaxon says:

    A little research… MGM Grand gambling/stats deal is worth $216M and counts toward hockey revenue. So 108 divided between 31 teams = about $3.5M increase in cap alone.

    Re: the new TV deal, when it happens however much over the current deal of $200M/year will count toward hockey revenue and will be split 50/50 by 31 teams or 32 if it’s after Seattle starts. Ex. if it comes in at $500M/year it would be an increase of $300M/year in revenue split in two for $150M between 32 teams = $4.68M per year.

    If revenues regularly go up by about $3.5M in the years that those happen, it could go up by 11.5M!

  101. russ99 says:

    IMO our best move with Lucic is that he gets bought out this summer, unless we can get a taker for a post-July 1st handshake deal with $3M retained after the bonus is paid out.

    The cap savings is worth it, and if we trade him we’d need to retain around the same amount of cap as a buyout, and likely take a contract in return.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/milan-lucic/2019-06-15

    Those two $5m+ years hurt, but we should find takers for Russell and/or Sekera by then.

  102. Oil2Oilers says:

    Happy birthday Lowetide, may the Oilers deliver you a gift of a game.

  103. Lowetide says:

    Thanks for all the birthday wishes, appreciated! I’m old!!

  104. --hudson-- says:

    Happy birthday LT!

    Thought some Oilers fans would enjoy the most negative spin you could put on the Canes.

    – Currently 2nd last in GF with 65 goals in 26 games. (also 4th in GA with 70)
    – Their best goalie was picked up off waivers. (McIlhenney)
    – Their 2010 1st round pick traded for magic beans has scored 29 points in 29 games. (Skinner)
    – Their 2003 2nd overall pick cast off has scored 20 points in 26 games. (Staal)
    – Their big trade in summer of 2018 has the two players they sent away (Lindholm & Hanifin) outscoring the players they received (Ferland & Hamilton). Ferland is also set to be a UFA this summer.
    – Their 2nd overall pick this summer is getting outscored by the 1st, 3rd and 4th overall picks.
    – They lost their leading AHL scorer on waivers for nothing.

    Does Rod Brind’amour really think Jordan Martinook, Brock McGinn and Phil Di Giuseppe are better players than Zykov?

  105. --hudson-- says:

    texmex:
    Man, the flames have scored 100 goals this season. Jeebuzz

    That is impressive! You could argue a good Flames team is good for the Oilers, imagine the OBC and Red Wine summit don’t like being shown up. It’s a good motivator for them.

    No surprise the Leafs and Lightning are up there. Really surprising to see Ottawa also at 100 goals, remember the narrative of them playing boring defensive hockey during their run a couple years ago.

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99,

    The cap crunch will loosen the next two years. The cap is going up at least $3M, and should continue to rise as Seattle’s expansion fees are paid.

    Expansion fees are not Hockey Related Revenue and do not factor into the cap.

  107. Doug McLachlan says:

    Still focusing on the positives. The team looks to be playing more disciplined, structured hockey. Hitch is a dream to listen to and I am convincing myself that it isn’t all malarkey.

    Hopefully McDavid is over his bug and is ready to rip it up.

    Connor McDavid 5-on-5 On Ice: Shots (273-228) 54.49 percent; GD (20-15) 57.14 percent.
    Connor McDavid 5-on-5 Off Ice: Shots (401-407) 49.6 percent; GD (21-33) 38.89 percent

    That’s not bad McDavid Off Ice Corsi, especially as it is linked to either RNH or Drai off the ice as well. Some shooting % regression and we might make a race out of this. Big game tonight.

    In my silly Best of Seven tally the Oilers missed out on their chance for a sweep against Dallas on Monday but could still earn their second five-game series win by beating the Blues tonight. I like their chances. Woot, Woot.

    Current Best of Seven: Oilers lead 3-1
    Fourth Series: Oilers lose 2-4
    Third Series: Oilers lose 1-4
    Second Series: Oilers win 4-1
    First Series: Oilers lose 3-4 in Game 7 OT

  108. OmJo says:

    Proposition 1: When a GM is fired, any contract clauses they signed off on are void when the team hires a new GM until the NHL trade deadline. If the GM is fired after the trade deadline, they have until the NHL Entry Draft. If a GM is fired following the NHL Entry Draft, they have until the start of the preseason.

    Proposition 2: A newly hired GM gets a complimentary buyout with a minimal salary cap penalty.

    This will never happen.

  109. BONE207 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    ARI has a cap $72MM, but 5.5 of that is Bolland who is paid by insurance and 5.275 of that is Hossa who isn’t getting paid at all.

    So a team with an actual cap of ~61MM is ahead of EDM who is capped out and has Connor McDavid.

    Ok then.

    You made me cry you bully!!!

  110. BONE207 says:

    Usually I come here for the hockey talk and the silly ass humor.
    Today I learned about Molly Malone and Simo Hayha.
    While we could use a sniper, I’d be happy with a Dave Lumley heater right now.

    Go Oilers. CONNOR…lead the way.

  111. BONE207 says:

    That Talbot-Koski duo really needs to start pulling their weight. They need to at least match the Zero Sum Line. Is it possible that Marty Brodeur could have outscored them?

  112. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    nafnikufesin:
    The idea that our shooting percentage will regress to the mean assumes that the calibre of our shooters is at the level of mean NHL players. If you had a team full of, well, me, for example, you’d be lucky to see a shooting percentage of 1%, and there is no way that my shooting percentage would ever “regress to the mean” of the NHL. Not all PDOs are created equal.

    Truth.

    I listed the shooters from 16/17 earlier in the thread when they shot over 8% 5v5.

    7/10 are gone and one is Lucic.

    “Magic 8 ball why does Pete have a job?”

    *shakeshakeshake*

    “No clue”

  113. treevojo says:

    Happy birthday LT!

    Loving the Oil at even money tonight.

    Connor is going to show the world how sick he is.

    I’m thinking 5 points.

  114. Primetime says:

    OriginalPouzar: Any player that turns pro this year, including Yamamoto, is eligible for the expansion draft given the one-year delay.

    The parameter is not “on an ELC”, its 2 years of pro.

    Those that just completed their 2nd year of pro will remain exempt – Yamamoto will have completed 3 years of pro.

    It’s an interesting point about Yammer. A lot of his value to the organization was that he would be exempt from the expansion draft on the original time line. Now that we know the draft will be a year later , and that Yammer will be eligible because of his 12 games this year, does his value to the organization change? He is still a talent, and lots of time to improve, however, he is not a certified sniper or instant star. The first round draft pick this year has more value now to all, as it can be protected.

    So if a deal comes up to get a bona fide sniper, or 2RHD that helps today, but the ask is Yammer +, are you more inclined to make the trade (vs. the 2019 1st)?

    If left exposed, Kailer will be taken for sure, not just for age and talent, but because he is local NW kid.

  115. BONE207 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    He’s a fairly minor player in the grand scheme of things, but one wonders how the usage or lack thereof of Aberg affected Chiarelli’s perspective on MacLellan?

    A good example of the GM finding a player with offensive talent that the HC couldn’t leverage. Disappointing to say the least. Todd MacLellan honestly thought Khaira, Kassian and Lucic were better options than Aberg.

    I would die to know the interaction the two of them had. So many weird decisions by both. Something like armed whack-a-moles. 1 mole whacking at another mole & both whacking at each other. Impossible to predict when & if they ever connect.

  116. BONE207 says:

    Death By Misadventure:
    When is Reider expected to be back?

    I feel like Reider and Zykov could improve things.

    Need to separate the 3 centres to balance scoring. Mcdavid, Drai, and Nuge driving their own lines. If Drai can’t drive a line by now, then season’s over. Turn out the lights.

    What the….

    Are you suggesting the notorious unicorn system??? I suppose you’ll be expecting CONNOR to win the Hart/Art Ross again too?

  117. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Primetime: It’s an interesting point about Yammer.A lot of his value to the organization was that he would be exempt from the expansion draft on the original time line.Now that we know the draft will be a year later , and that Yammer will be eligible because of his 12 games this year, does his value to the organization change?He is still a talent, and lots of time to improve, however, he is not a certified sniper or instant star.The first round draft pick this year has more value now to all, as it can be protected.

    So if a deal comes up to get a bona fide sniper, or 2RHD that helps today, but the ask is Yammer +, are you more inclined to make the trade (vs. the 2019 1st)?

    If left exposed, Kailer will be taken for sure, not just for age and talent, but because he is local NW kid.

    – I really think the team has done a good job of understanding who they have before trading them

    – Yak: failed elsewhere
    – Lander: failed elsewhere
    – Magnus: meh elsewhere
    – Pak: not in NHL
    – Davidson/Marincin/Osterle: they are elsewhere what they were here: tweeners

    – Based on the moves in the Chia era, we won’t be trading Kailer or Pool away untill they know what they have. That’s not what this organization has done

    – Unless someone wants to do a trade for Kailer and Pool with a magic-bean premium, we have shown prudence in not trading away the unestablished youth and regretting it later IMO

  118. BONE207 says:

    Death By Misadventure: I agree. It’s why I can’t figure out why Chia caved when Hitch asked for Jesse to comeback. Should have left him in the A with the other kids needing ice time.

    Hitch asked for him because he felt what Jesse needed was not going to be found in Bakeersfield. He would get him up to speed is what the coach claimed.

  119. --hudson-- says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Truth.

    I listed the shooters from 16/17 earlier in the thread when they shot over 8% 5v5.

    7/10 are gone and one is Lucic.

    “Magic 8 ball why does Pete have a job?”

    *shakeshakeshake*

    “No clue”

    To get really nerdy on this, the Oilers players may not regress to their 2017 percentages or their career averages. But you can count on them regressing towards the grand average of all NHL shooters.

    This presentation has a nice visualization on slide 22.
    https://statsbylopez.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/lecture_8.pdf

    This is what James Stein discovered in baseball batting averages about 60 years ago.

    There’s a few biases built into it, survival bias being one. Some of these players will see their careers ended because of an untimely shooting percentage. You also have to hope that the uptick in the ID line’s shooting percentage isn’t outdone by the down tick in Chiasson’s percentage.

  120. giddy says:

    From everything I have gathered lately about the NHL, the easiest way to avoid cap hell is to never touch an on-the-market UFA who wants long term at >$5M AAV. You will overpay and suffer 4/5 times.

  121. Jaxon says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I really think the team has done a good job of understanding who they have before trading them

    – Yak: failed elsewhere
    – Lander: failed elsewhere
    – Magnus: meh elsewhere
    – Pak: not in NHL
    – Davidson/Marincin/Osterle: they are elsewhere what they were here: tweeners

    – Based on the moves in the Chia era,we won’t be trading Kailer or Pool away untill they know what they have.That’s not what this organization has done

    – Unless someone wants to do a trade for Kailer and Pool with a magic-bean premium, we have shown prudence in not trading away the unestablished youth and regretting it later IMO

    I agree with you except for Oesterle. He has been first pairing right side on two different teams since leaving Edmonton. With Duncan Keith in Chicago last year and with Oliver Ekman-Larson this year in Arizona. He is averaging 17:16 at 5-on-5 since the start of last year, which is 61st in the NHL so first pair minutes in his last 75 games and he is averaging .65 5-on-5 points per game, which is 106th. I’d say he’s progressed far beyond tweener at this point.

  122. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Truth.

    I listed the shooters from 16/17 earlier in the thread when they shot over 8% 5v5.

    7/10 are gone and one is Lucic.

    “Magic 8 ball why does Pete have a job?”

    *shakeshakeshake*

    “No clue”

    Only reason I can think of is the moustache

  123. Bag of Pucks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I really think the team has done a good job of understanding who they have before trading them

    – Yak: failed elsewhere
    – Lander: failed elsewhere
    – Magnus: meh elsewhere
    – Pak: not in NHL
    – Davidson/Marincin/Osterle: they are elsewhere what they were here: tweeners

    – Based on the moves in the Chia era,we won’t be trading Kailer or Pool away untill they know what they have.That’s not what this organization has done

    – Unless someone wants to do a trade for Kailer and Pool with a magic-bean premium, we have shown prudence in not trading away the unestablished youth and regretting it later IMO

    To be fair, there have been a fair few that flourished after leaving as well. Aberg, Cogliano, Chimera, Schultz, Glencross, Brodziak, Brossoit, etc.

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon: By only 3 games at this point. If he had only played 9 NHL games this season his AHL time wouldn’t count as a year of pro hockey as he was still only 19 on September 15 of this year.

    Sure, but my point was that Kinger was wrong and Kailer will not be exempt.

    Also, are we sure that an ELC slide while playing pro (AHL) does not count as a year of pro for the purposes of the expansion draft?

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon: Do you know if the upcoming new American TV deal and the recent MGM gambling and stats deal count toward revenues? They could be substantial. Maybe not next year but soon, no?

    The CBA has a massive detailed section on what is included as HRR. I don’t have time to look now but I’m fairly confident the answer will be yes.

  126. Darth Tu says:

    giddy,

    So you’re saying 20% of the time that we’d come out on top? I like those odds!

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    Primetime: It’s an interesting point about Yammer.A lot of his value to the organization was that he would be exempt from the expansion draft on the original time line.Now that we know the draft will be a year later , and that Yammer will be eligible because of his 12 games this year, does his value to the organization change?He is still a talent, and lots of time to improve, however, he is not a certified sniper or instant star.The first round draft pick this year has more value now to all, as it can be protected.

    So if a deal comes up to get a bona fide sniper, or 2RHD that helps today, but the ask is Yammer +, are you more inclined to make the trade (vs. the 2019 1st)?

    If left exposed, Kailer will be taken for sure, not just for age and talent, but because he is local NW kid.

    He is not a “can’t trade” type of guy but only if the right deal is there.

    He’s a 20 year old, rookie pro in his draft plus 2 year.

    He was not a top 5 pick that should be expected to play in the NHL and contribute right away.

    He was a 22nd overall pick and for a reason.

    He’s been given the privellage of playing a handful of AHL games, that’s it.

    Oiler fans should have zero concern that he’s not NHL ready, he’s a rookie pro and is now in the appropriate league. He’s already shown some NHL skills that will provide him an NHL career (forecheck, quick stick, PK, etc) and he needs the opportunity to work on his overall game.

    He’s a first year pro, just like Benson, Hebig, Marody.

    To expect NHL success right away is to equate him to a much higher draft pedigree.

  128. ArmchairGM says:

    I’m sure it’s been mentioned, but Maksimov has 5 goals in his past 2 games. Jason Robertson seems to be supercharged (14 points in 5 games) since being traded, maybe it’s rubbing off on Maksimov a bit.

  129. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks: To be fair, there have been a fair few that flourished after leaving as well. Aberg, Cogliano, Chimera, Schultz, Glencross, Brodziak, Brossoit, etc.

    – under Chia. Those guys are from earlier. Brossoit whatever.

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon: I agree with you except for Oesterle. He has been first pairing right side on two different teams since leaving Edmonton. With Duncan Keith in Chicago last year and with Oliver Ekman-Larson this year in Arizona. He is averaging 17:16 at 5-on-5 since the start of last year, which is 61st in the NHL so first pair minutes in his last 75 games and he is averaging .65 5-on-5 points per game, which is 106th. I’d say he’s progressed far beyond tweener at this point.

    He’s been healthy scratched this year (as he was on occasion last year with CHI).

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    Phil Kemp has been named to the US selection camp.

    He was a late cut from the team last year – hope he makes it this year.

  132. Andy Dufresne says:

    Jaxon:
    Andy Dufresne,

    “SO, in free agency we want to bring in a $6 million dollar scoring forward and a $5 million RHD.”

    Who would you suggest they spend that on.

    RD:
    Erik Karlsson – 16 pts in 28 GP, 24:52 TOI – 9 pts in last 11GP. His speed, skill and minutes logged on the back end would be a game changer.
    Nick Jensen – solid D playing 2nd pair 19:49 TOI
    Tyler Myers – would be a decent 2nd pair on the right side. 19:10 TOI
    Alex Petrovic – 17:48 TOI
    Jan Rutta – 16:19 TOI

    I doubt you can get Karlsson for less than $10M. That leaves Jensen, Myers, and Petrovic as the next best candidates and they aren’t exactly difference makers. I’m not sure if even trust them as solid 2RDs. Definitely don’t spend $5M on any of them.

    LW
    Artemi Panarin 29pts in 26GP, 19:33 TOI
    Matt Duchene 34pts in 28GP, 19:11 TOI
    Brock Nelson – 19pts in 26GP, 17:58 TOI
    Anders Lee – 21pts in 26GP, 17:38 TOI
    Jeff Skinner – 29pts in 29GP, 17:50 TOI
    Jakub Silfverberg – 11 pts in 24GP, 17:35 TOI

    RW
    Mark Stone – 30pts in 28GP, 19:47 TOI
    Jeff Skinner – would be an amzing pick up but I bet he re-signs with Buffalo as things are going well for him and the Sabres – 29pts in 29GP, 17:50 TOI
    Ryan Dzingel – 19pts in 26GP, 17:34 TOI
    Jordan Eberle – at a reduced cap that would be quite something. 13pts in 26GP, 16:48 TOI

    Panarin, Duchene, Skinner, and Stone seem to be the only candidates assuming they all make it to free agency before re-signing (unlikely). Maybe Eberle at a reduced price but I doubt it for numerous reasons. EDIT: not sure I’d be big on Stone. While his sharing has improved enough to be a very good NHLer, I’m not sure I’d trust him to keep up with McDavid. Duchenne and Skinner, on the other hand, are very fast and could Excel flying down McDavid’s wing. I would expect that if McDavid has a winger option keeping up on his breakaways they’re going to score more.

    First off, nice catch on the price of Yamamoto playing 12 games this year. Bad business decision.

    While I certainly agree with other posters that Free Agency can be a fools game. I seriously doubt that Katz is willing to be patient with just small moves and develop from within. So on the caveat that we are going to have to overpay in free agency, Silfverberg is the guy who would most likely fit the budget.

    Out side of Karlsson, there is not much in free agency to choose from on defense. Might have to consider moving Nurse in a trade (Gostisbehere ? ) Nurse+ for Tyson Barrie? Next years 1st for Justin Faulk?

    But I get back to the point I was trying to make in that lengthy post. Id like to see Chiarelli move out some cap space at the deadline even if it means giving away a few player like Kassian, Cagguila and Benning for 2nd or third round picks.

    If I was to dream big…….Lucic and next years first to Arizona….then buy Erik Karlsson in free agency.

  133. russ99 says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    I said that last year about trading those exact players for picks, plus Strome. While Chia is here I don’t see it, they’re his pet projects.

    Also a package like Kassian, Benning and a pick, like the extra third from the Islanders could bring back something decent.

    IMO, also Spooner’s contract is a luxury we can’t afford unless he plays markedly better the rest of the way.

  134. Reja says:

    Connor looks rested big night coming up 3 plus points.

  135. Andy Dufresne says:

    russ99:
    Andy Dufresne,

    I said that last year about trading those exact players for picks, plus Strome. While Chia is here I don’t see it, they’re his pet projects.

    Also a package like Kassian, Benning and a pick, like the extra third from the Islanders could bring back something decent.

    IMO, also Spooner’s contract is a luxury we can’t afford unless he plays markedly better the rest of the way.

    I hear ya Russ….but I guess my point is that these are all replacement level players. Dont worry about making a hockey trade. Just give them away for picks and use the cap space in other ways.

  136. Scungilli Slushy says:

    giddy:
    From everything I have gathered lately about the NHL, the easiest way to avoid cap hell is to never touch an on-the-market UFA who wants long term at >$5M AAV. You will overpay and suffer 4/5 times.

    You are almost always buying the memory of that player and get to watch the decline years. Players like the birthday boy’s Leivo more than often provide the same output at way less cap.

    Draft the roster top players and buy low on value signings to stay competitive. Too many GMs and teams chase the hype.

  137. Bulging Twine says:

    Phil Kemp on the USA world Jr roster

  138. Bulging Twine says:

    npanciroli:
    Who does everyone want if we get a new GM? I’m not really aware of potential options.

    Do whatever it takes to get Yzerman here, double it if he brings Al Murray

  139. Dustylegnd says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here’s the Western Conference teams goal differential as per hockey-reference.com

    Goal differential has historically been the best predictor of making the playoffs.

    NSH23
    COL23
    CGY18
    WPG16
    MIN8
    DAL6
    VGK6
    ARI1
    SJS-4
    STL-11
    EDM-12
    ANA-13
    VAN-21
    LAK-25
    CHI-27

    ANA is defying their goal diff, but they’ve played much better hockey lately.

    SJS has got shit goaltending so far this year.

    ARI and VGK are worth keeping an eye on.

    The red team to the south looks real.Bah!

    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

    Read it and weep

  140. Dustylegnd says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    “So a team with an actual cap of ~61MM is ahead of EDM who is capped out and has Connor McDavid.”

    Yes, but 1 GM is a forward thinking Analytics guruu who has no place in hockey and 1 GM is a Cup Winning Harvard Law Degree man who Loves Heavy Hockey…….

    it is not necessarily the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive, it is the most adaptable

    Which would make the OBC the ants of the NHL

  141. PhrankLee says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Cause it’s gone daddy gone
    Your love is gone
    Gone daddy gone
    The love is gone away

    There are strict instructions for this song to be played at my funeral! My son and I saw them in Toronto the last time they were through. Massey Hall. It was a great show. Great band to this day. Barefaced honesty and a 12′ tall saxophone.

    Talbot needs to regress. We need both G1 and G2 to be at .920 5×5 or better and at or under 2.5 gaa, all situations.

    We have 2 G going UFA this summer. The, mostly, proven Talbot is at a career low in value. What do you do?

  142. Bulging Twine says:

    Important game for Talbot

  143. franksterra says:

    Let’s light these bastards up for two goals! Woot!

    Goilers!!

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Phil Kemp on the USA world Jr roster

    Not quite – just selection camp at this point.

  145. Lowetide says:

    First shot didn’t go in the net.

  146. Dustylegnd says:

    McSorley33:
    GM Candidate for Oilers GM this Summer: ( the idea to come up with a list of guys )

    I will throw Ron Hextall out there…..one of the best prospect pools built in the NHL.

    No rash trades or deviating from his plan. That actually got him fired.

    He exudes patience.

    Signed Sean C to 6 year – 4.33 AAV

    Bonus Points for Hextall – maybe more inclined to tell KLowe, Howson, Mac T and co.. to
    F%$&&^&#

    Which is why he will never get hired, any GM who accepts this job without 100% complete personnel control is 100% guaranteed to fail……

  147. Bulging Twine says:

    C’mon Russell get that puck in deep

  148. Dustylegnd says:

    Bulging Twine: Do whatever it takes to get Yzerman here, double it if he brings Al Murray

    I f his family refused to move to Tampa, what are the odds they will agree to move to Canada? He will be the next GM of Detroit

  149. Bulging Twine says:

    franksterra:
    Let’s light these bastards up for two goals! Woot!

    Goilers!!

    Hahaha

  150. Lowetide says:

    Well that was easy.

  151. npanciroli says:

    Nurse Russell lol

  152. npanciroli says:

    Nice coverage.

  153. npanciroli says:

    Not the game I would have picked to get embarrassed but that start might prove me wrong.

  154. OneEye says:

    Lowetide,

    Can’t defend and can’t score. Me thinks we have issues.

  155. leadfarmer says:

    Why do they play like crap when Talbot is in net

  156. Bulging Twine says:

    STL making some good defensive plays

  157. OriginalPouzar says:

    McDavid didn’t identify the man on that goal against.

  158. leadfarmer says:

    This team loves to give up very high danger scoring chances. We will respond with some dump ins on goal from the blue line and call it even

  159. Derek says:

    I’ve been watching for 4 minutes and I’ve seen Nurse commit 3 brain dead errors.

  160. flyfish1168 says:

    The question is, will we gift Maroon with a goal?

  161. OriginalPouzar says:

    Derek:
    I’ve been watching for 4 minutes and I’ve seen Nurse commit 3 brain dead errors.

    Did you see him save a goal by deflecting the puck over the net when Maroon had an empty net?

  162. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Man… I miss maroon. He was such a solder…

  163. Derek says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    McDavid didn’t identify the man on that goal against.

    Nurse and Mcdavid both chased the guy behind the net. With Russel already in the corner I’m more inclined to give the error to Nurse as I’m accustomed to always having one D man in front of the net when the opposition has possession but your mileage may vary.

  164. Oil2Oilers says:

    Derek:
    I’ve been watching for 4 minutes and I’ve seen Nurse commit 3 brain dead errors.

    I hope he has the flu, it has been a tough game for him.

  165. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Why does every team look like a cup contender against the oilers???
    It’s borderline rediculous…

  166. Snellbert19 says:

    Derek,

    Ya. It’s bad.

  167. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I was really hoping Talbot had a good game.

  168. Ice Sage says:

    Wow, so much for the Hitch-bump.
    This team is not playoff-worthy.

  169. little.fiery.one says:

    God I hate dumping it in at the blue line.

  170. OriginalPouzar says:

    Derek: Nurse and Mcdavid both chased the guy behind the net.With Russel already in the corner I’m more inclined to give the error to Nurse as I’m accustomed to always having one D man in front of the net when the opposition has possession but your mileage may vary.

    Yes, they both did and, to me, that mistake is on McDavid – the d-man should have the go-ahead to go to the guy behind the net and its the center’s job to cover the slot.

    I guess the coach could have a different system for that situation but I think what I set out is more “standard” – could be wrong, I’m no guru.

  171. Bulging Twine says:

    K Russell sleepy

  172. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    I thought I’d watch a game since it was on early and I’m eating supper (first one since the Calgary loss), but they are such a horseshit team. Back to NHL updates only.

  173. OneEye says:

    Crazy Pedestrian,

    Because we are really just that bad. How this GM still has a job is unbelievable.

  174. russ99 says:

    Disappointing that we got a Hitch practice in and the players are still making basic errors.

  175. Surgeons Knot says:

    Would love to see something – anything – from the Oilers. Horrible start. This team is sorely lacking

  176. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    I was really hoping Talbot had a good game.

    First goal I think McDavid made the mistake (some thing Nurse).

    Second goal, Talbot lost the net – I didn’t see any skater make a mistake in coverage on that one.

  177. Dr. Taboggan says:

    “He is a point per game player against the Oilers” how many times have we heard this?

  178. OriginalPouzar says:

    Allright, big save there by Talbot on Sanford – needed that one, now turn the game Oilers…..

  179. Bulging Twine says:

    STL dominating on the Nurse-Russell pair

  180. workaroundaccount says:

    Dustylegnd: Which is why he will never get hired, any GM who accepts this job without 100% complete personnel control is 100% guaranteed to fail……

    Whether he had control or not doesn’t matter to me. If you are the subject matter expert, your job is talk the boss out of stupid decisions. I have to do it all the time. Control or not, he is to blame.

  181. Hockey Project says:

    Jeez, this pairing has bled quality chances against tonight.

  182. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    And to make being an oilers fan even shittier, Calgary and Toronto lighting up the league, scoring at will and winning for fun. 🤮

  183. Dr. Taboggan says:

    I really wonder who the Oilers replace Chia with. What is the over/under on Keith Gretzky? And are we happy about that outcome?

  184. npanciroli says:

    Nurse Russell x2

  185. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Russell has been dismal so far.

  186. Hockey Project says:

    My wife has spent a few years teasing me, asking what I would if Seattle were ever to enter the NHL… I wouldn’t switch, but games like this, where nothing good is happening, and she sees how it is for me after years and years of it…

    That’s why she asks.

  187. npanciroli says:

    Going on a losing streak and getting a GM change would be ideal before we lose another trade.

  188. workaroundaccount says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    I really wonder who the Oilers replace Chia with. What is the over/under on Keith Gretzky? And are we happy about that outcome?

    Doesn’t matter. We are more than 1GM change away from being competitive.

  189. npanciroli says:

    Allen shutout would be extra hilarious too.

  190. Dr. Taboggan says:

    workaroundaccount,

    Haha you are probably right.

  191. BONE207 says:

    If Perron & Maroon both score tonight I will stop watching for the year. We have so many plumbers working to sewer this team. I guess that explains the smell.

  192. Hockey Project says:

    The team looks like they double-dosed on Nyquil an hour before the game.

  193. workaroundaccount says:

    npanciroli:
    Going on a losing streak and getting a GM change would be ideal before we lose another trade.

    Can almost guarantee that a mid year gm chang means an interim MacT GM at the very least

  194. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    workaroundaccount: Doesn’t matter. We are more than 1GM change away from being competitive.

    And also probably a McDavid trade and (3rd) rebuild away as well…

    😭

  195. Genjutsu says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Edmonton’s 5-on-5 shooting percentage is 6.08 this season (7.48 last year; 8.28 in their playoff season)

    Here’s EDM’s top 10 5v5 SH% forwards who played over 200 min 5v5 in the 16/17 playoff year:

    PlayerSH%
    Patrick Maroon16.8
    Tyler Pitlick15.1
    Iiro Pakarinen13.3
    Leon Draisaitl12.6
    Benoit Pouliot12.5
    David Desharnais12.5
    Connor McDavid11.0
    Matt Hendricks10.5
    Jordan Eberle9.0
    Milan Lucic8.3

    7 are gone and 1 is MIA.

    Cause it’s gone daddy gone
    Your love is gone
    Gone daddy gone
    The love is gone away

    Beautiful girl love the dress.

  196. Lowetide says:

    After One:

    2-0 St. Louis
    15-5 shots St. Louis
    17-10 Corsi for 5-on-5 St. Louis

    I’ll be interested in seeing the next two periods and Hitchcock’s comments after the game.

  197. Bulging Twine says:

    Hockey Project:
    The team looks like they double-dosed on Nyquil an hour before the game.

    yep, some slow thinkers out there

  198. Bag of Pucks says:

    OneEye:
    Crazy Pedestrian,

    Because we are really just that bad.How this GM still has a job is unbelievable.

    It’s the GMs fault when the players brain cramp and play shite D?

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