The Edmonton Oilers are 9-2-2 with Ken Hitchcock as coach, and the mind cannot resist wandering. Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? Should you save your pennies for playoff tickets? If the Oilers lose tomorrow night in the shadow of Chilliwack, does it mean the beginning of the end? Does it mean two weeks until this blog’s first look at the 2019 draft? If Oilers fans find true hope, will the Hockey Gods punish them again?
The Oilers under Todd McLellan were a lot like the Kinks—plenty to like, but never the band you anticipate, never the group who produces that must-have album (they did, Something Else, but for some reason no one noticed). The Beatles were sunshine and good times, the Stones were the moon and all the things that happen at 3am. The Kinks? Neither fish nor foul. Just like the Oilers these many years, until Hitchcock, Koskinen and the rise of the post-game media avail.
Ken Hitchcock is giving this team a personality, giving the fans something to hold on to, and giving this organization a complete makeover. Ken Hitchcock makes sense. He’s cocaine verbal in a homogenized world. He delivers. Every damned time.
THE ATHLETIC
The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Outstanding offer is here.
- New Lowetide: No. 7 prospect Winter 2018: Caleb Jones.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers Alex Chiasson is able to maintain his scoring touch.
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi as an offensive player and what that tells us about his future with the Oilers.
- Tyler Dellow: A look at which first lines are producing (and which ones aren’t) (Oilers content inside)
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Connor McDavid became the world’s fastest skater.
- Lowetide: Contemplating Oilers roster changes as injured players prepare to return.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers are bending, but not breaking, in one-goal games under Ken Hitchcock.
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 6 Prospect winter 2018: Cooper Marody.
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 5 Prospect winter 2018: Ethan Bear.
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 4 Prospect winter 2018: Ryan McLeod.
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 Prospect winter 2018: Tyler Benson.
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 2 Prospect winter 2018: Kailer Yamamoto.
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 1 Prospect winter 2018: Evan Bouchard.
OILERS AFTER 33
- Oilers in 2015: 14-17-2, 30 points; goal differential -13
- Oilers in 2016: 16-12-5, 37 points; goal differential +4
- Oilers in 2017: 14-17-2, 30 points; goal differential -9
- Oilers in 2018: 18-12-3, 39 points; goal differential +4
The 2018 McDavids are now putting in a genuine effort in the race to be considered the best of His Oilers teams. Part of that is McDavid (on pace for 122 points, 48 goals) and part of it is the .930 train in goal, Mikko Koskinen. The current Oilers project to 82, 45-30-7, 97 points.
OILERS IN DECEMBER
- Oilers in December 2015: 6-2-0, 12 points; goal differential +1
- Oilers in December 2016: 3-2-3, nine points; goal differential 0
- Oilers in December 2017: 5-3-0, 10 points; goal differential +7
- Oilers in December 2018: 6-1-1, 13 points; goal differential +9
Whatever happens after this, I know, I know, we’ll never forget. The 2018 McDavid Oilers grabbed 13 of a possible 16 points, have three locks for the All-Star game (McDavid, Draisaitl, Koskinen) and a guy making less than $700,000 on pace for 35 goals.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM DECEMBER
- At home to: Vegas (Expected 0-1-0) Actual (1-0-0)
- On the road to: Dallas, St. Louis (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: Minnesota, Calgary (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: Colorado,Winnipeg(Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
- At home to: Philadelphia (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Vancouver, San Jose, Winnipeg (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 6-1-1, 13 points in eight games
Absolutely Sweet Marie in December, I estimated 15 points for the entire month and Edmonton is within two points after eight games. Six games left and this team has a chance to tear up the blacktop and push to the top of the division. No losing streaks, no less than zero. Just an entertaining three hours of hockey followed by the Answer Man in the postgame. Is Hitchcock available for financial planning, life advice and marriage counselling? What does he have to say about pipelines?
DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT
- Gravel-Jones went 11-10 in 10:51, 4-6 shots, no goals and 1-2 HDSC. Gravel stepped up, especially on the PK. Jones played a calm, controlled game in his debut, just one giveaway. Went 3-6- in 3:57 against Voracek-Couturier-Simmonds, 2-3 shots, no goals, 1-1 HDSC. I liked this pairing and believe they should stay together, maybe get more playing time.
- Garrison-Benning were 5-7 in 11:19, 3-3 shots, 1-0 goals and 0-3 HDSC. This pairing posted 5-6 shots and 2-0 goals in the last two games. Unlikely combination, early results solid. Went 4-6 in 7:07 against the Couturier line, 1-0 goals and 1-2 HDSC.
- Nurse-Larsson went 12-22 in 17:43, 7-12 shots, 2-1 goals and 1-7 HDSC. Larsson made a poor play on the GA (had the puck and didn’t get it out) but also scored and played a solid game. Nurse was also in photo on the goal but Larsson was a bigger factor. Hitchcock suggests Nurse gets better the more he plays, a wrinkle I had not heard before. Pairing is getting caved in shots and Corsi, that will need to change. Played four fewer minutes as a pair than the Winnipeg game. Went 6-9 in 7:52, 4-6 shots, 1-1 goals and 0-4 HDSC against JVR-Giroux-Konecny.
- Mikko Koskinen stopped 29 of 30, .967. He’s fantastic.
- NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.
FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT
- Khaira-Nuge-Puljujarvi were 7-4 in 10:24, 4-2 shots, no goals and 2-1 in HDSC. Although they didn’t score, the line was a pain and I think it might have been the best game by the trio. Went 7-3 against Provorov, 4-1 shots and 2-1 HDSC. This is going to be a good line. Puljujarvi is now a man possessed on the forecheck, Hitchcock has gotten to him. Poor poor pitiful NHL blue, you have no idea what you’re in for over the next 15 winters.
- Lucic-Spooner-Caggiula went 6-0 (Lucic, 4:49) and 8-4 (Caggiula, 7:28) on a line that finally appears to be finding the range. Lucic moving on to the line (it’s the No. 4 line) seemed to spark something and the results were solid. Went 4-4 in 3:52 against Hagg-Gudas. Milan’s passing is still erratic, but he has been throwing in some gems in the last 10 days.
- Rieder-Brodziak-Kassian were 7-6 (Rieder, 6:25) and 8-13 (Kassian, 10:28). Line was 0-3 HDSC. Went 3-5 against Gostisbehere. Also saw a spike from the shuffle. Rieder is money on breakaways but forgot to pay the toll this time and whiffed on the chance. He’s back now, I believe.
- Chiasson-McDavid-Draisaitl went 9-22 in 14:33, 5-15 shots, 2-1 goals and 0-8 HDSC. What a crazy night. Hahaha. Hockey is such a silly game. Line outscores team 2-1 and gives up tons of great chances but it doesn’t matter because hockey is going to hockey. Went 5-10 against Gostisbehere.
THE WHO, BY NUMBERS
- Connor McDavid is now tied for No. 2 in NHL scoring (32, 19-29-48).
- Leon Draisaitl is now tied for No. 7 in NHL scoring (33, 16-26-42).
- Alex Chiasson is now tied for No. 28 in goals (14).
- Darnell Nurse is now tied for No. 20 among blue in even-strength points (13)
- Mikko Koskinen’s .930 save percentage is No. 2 in the NHL.
That is what I meant … either or both.
You look much smarter to use worst case scenario and plan for same!
Morning folks
Yes 50% total. It was I believe from The Player’s Tribune piece by Clune – I have hockey so can’t track it ATM
I agree he was saying 50% total is deducted, but that doesn’t quite cover it.
NHL escrow starts at 15% – last year I believe it was 18% that comes off the top so on $1MM bucks you start at $820K.
From that $820K:
Marginal tax rate in Alberta 48% for provincial / fed taxes
Agent is typically 3-5% depending how contract is structured – call it 4%
These guys still pay EI / CPP though it is capped so % wise it’s not a lot
Typically these guys insure their careers for injury – if anyone has disability insurance at work, it isn’t cheap, at a minimum I would expect 2%.
Add in NHLPA fees and incidentals- say 1% which is likely light.
So off the $820K that is 55% deducted. So money in the jeans is $369K from a million dollar cheque. I am not an accountant (or an architect for that matter) and may be skipping some of the finer points, but I think this is reasonably close.
I am not saying we should be holding a tag day for these guys – it is a pretty nice gig. But a million bucks doesn’t go as far as it used to (offered without political comment – sort of).
I think he was saying “totals to ~50%” not 50% + 40%.
Agent fees are around 2-3% for contracts and more for endorsements.
50% total including taxes, fees and escrow was the way I read it.
I have no idea what motivates Miller, that’s why I’m “wondering”
I wonder how much retiring with a Cup means to him?
That’s probably a good idea
Lowetide,
Respect for you and the community that is here, LT.
Sorry you have to take this shit from people but the vast majority of us have serious respect for you and this place. Especially us ex-edmontonians who come here to remind us of home.
Scungilli Slushy,
That cant be right. They lose 50% to agent and then 40% on taxes?
Wheres your source?
An agents fees have to be 10-12%, not 50%.
Can’t argue with that.
Thanks LT for hosting this blog in the manner you do.
Really enjoy posting my random nonsensical views on all things oilers without prejudice.
Also quodos to other posters who give opposing points of view in a respectful manner.
Love the stat contributors, not that I am one, but their is value in stats?
Edit: one more point when I read the blog it is if I am sitting across from the poster shooting the shit …. love that
oilersfan,
OP mentioned above that Klef broke just one finger, but broke it in multiple places, so maybe the severity of the breaks resulted in the timeline
But I’m not a doctor, just a network administrator*
*Dr McCoy voice
RonnieB,
OP won’t be out a of bed for a couple hours so if I may:
You are correct, the max allowed retained in a transaction is 50%- I think the confusion is in the terminology we’re using
50% of his AAV is $3M a year-this is his cap hit and where the $3M figure being discussed comes from
As for the money remaining over the final 4 years-the math gets tricky because of the signing bonuses, but after the July 1 signing bonus is paid, the Oilers would be on the hook the 50% of the remaining money owed.
But you raise a good point, are the Oilers responsible for 50% of any signing bonuses remaining, or just the salary remaining (I think it includes bonuses, but I could be wrong) ie:the Oilers would pay for 50% of all monies remaining
At any rate, the discussion is centered around the cap hit retained by the Oilers, and that would be $3M a year, every year
The remaining dollars owed would fluctuate each year, but it would average $2M a year(ie: his cap hit would be higher each year than the money owed)
When Gaudreau broke his fingers two years ago they said he would be out for 6-8 weeks and he was back in 3 weeks with some extra padding in his gloves. Isn’t 2 months a bit much for a broken pinky ?
OP: a question for you please.
Following his July 1st, 2019 bonus Lucic will be owed an average of $4 million x 4 years.
How could the Oilers retain $3 million in a trade ? I thought the maximum retained salary was 50%.
If i’m right, the Oilers could retain a max of 1/3rd of his $6 cap hit or $2/year. The acquiring team would get Lucic for 4 years at a cap hit of $4 and an average cost of $2. Surely someone would find Lucic useful on those terms without a sweetener. BTW, i am strongly against a sweetener except possibly a 6th/7th round pick.
Or am i wrong ?
I support and respect your decision to move on from Kingwr. Reading his posts comments that were directed at you made me uncomfortable and they were inappropriate. I appreciate the respectful and inviting environment you’ve created within this community.
I’m not sure if you can track the effect, but the Kinks were banned from touring the states from ’65-’69 I believe. Something to do with a trade union. Thats a pretty major hit at the prime of the British Invasion successes.
I can assure you the average human finger will fracture when hit by 6 ounces of vulcanized rubber going 100+ kph….nothing fragile about Oscar on this one.
Around the Dial and Destroyer were on heavy rotation for me walking to Junior High with my ghetto blaster back in the day. Wicked songs.
100%
meh
The team did alright in 16/17 with both Maroon and Lucic in the lineup
With the likes of Zykov and Rattie on the current active roster I’d find a sweater for Maroon if he was available
I agree that the oilers should br creative in its efforts to move Lucic. Id package a 2nd to get it done as well. They need to be opportunistic while still playing for 2020. If there is an opportunity to add Parayko (the oilers franchise historically trades well with the Blues) or move Lucic i think any time is good.
As for keeping the powder dry so to speak i dont know if id ever move a 1st for a rental. The next 10 games will be big to see if the last 10 was real or a heater. Even then id like to have confidence the oilers are in the elite tier before buying and id still never mivd a 1st for a rental. A 1st for parayko (assuming other pieces are included to get thd oilers under the cap)? Sure.
But a team with McDavid, Drai, Nuge and goatending? Thats a tough out.
Miller wanted to play in California for family reasons. He wouldn’t play for that in Edmonton. He has a great gig behind Gibson. Why would he leave?
No, because Caggiula. But maybe, because Caggiula is signed to another year. Spooner has another year. Kassian has another year. Chiasson is filling the net. And Puljujarvi is on the verge.
And Rieder is just flat out better.
Professor Q,
Been saying that for years
Glad to see others come around
I’ve been a Browns fan since the cardiac kid days they finally have a Franchise QB. That was a crazy fourth down gamble he’s lucky the defense bailed him out.
Lucic has Maroon’s spot. You can only have one of them. You can’t have two big slow left wings, neither of whom is particularly good defensively, and neither of who can PK. Plus, Jujhar is arriving as we speak.
The Oilers will be running Draisaitl, Khaira, and Rieder as the top three left wings.
I don’t buy this scheduled night loss. How do I find winning percentage of road teams on a non back to back and on a back to back and three games in four nights.
This Browns team is so infuriating and extremely fun to watch.
Mayfield and Co. breaking negative streaks and positive records by the game.
In many respects, they are the Oilers of the NFL.
Dylan Wells with a 27 save shutout in his 2nd ever AHL game for his first win.
Condors win 1-0.
But they beat Minnesota in regulation. Yea!
Klefbom’s injuries, like Pitlick’s, are mostly just bad luck.
He’d be perfect with Koskinen and 2 million is reasonable but didn’t he pick Southern California cause his wife wanted to be an actress or some damm thing?
Hear hear!!
I do not post very often, even though I read everyday. This one hit close to home. We lost my dad this year because of diabetes complications (far too early and the loss is felt everyday). That someone would wish this upon you due to a hockey blog is incomprehensible to me. It is not something that I would wish on my worst enemy.
Thank you for continuing to do what you do Mr. Babkooooook (one of my favourite Lowetide stories). You are a gentleman and a scholar.
Yup, my point being as we know players on ELcs and first RFA contracts that can contribute (most often first and second rounders) help keep the expensive players until someone makes sense to move
He also played with McDavid in Erie. Seems like he’s fallen out of favour in Washington (Sportsnet) and might be had for a reasonable price.
Gaining cap space is a way to retain young contributors
This doesn’t make sense. What small deals have resulted in uneven cap assets to the tune of 3Mx5?
Is there precedent for a sweetener-less cap dump? If so, does the contract traded compare to Lucic’s current deal? AFAIK, almost every deal involving monied players moving that isn’t a blockbuster consists of even salary going both ways or legit sweeteners.
Last summer moving Steve Mason’s 4.1AAV x 2y (with no bonuses, easy buyout) cost the Jets Armia (25yo oversized, plus two-way middle-six winger), a 4th, and a 7th.
The buyout resulted in a cap hit of 1.336 for 2 years.
Contrasting that with the cap burden a trade partner takes on in our scenario, 3.000 for four more years after this, I think there’s no way simply trading Milan Lucic at half retained for nothing is ‘plenty’ in a league where cap dumps never happen for free
I’m wondering if Burakovsky would be a good trade target. Top 6 potential. Feel like he and Rieder and Draisaitl could form a good line.
Miller puts up similar (better actually, but ANA has good D) results as a back up (SV% wise) as he did when he made $6MM and $6.5MM as a starter for 8 years.
Made $2MM last year and $2MM this year and is FA.
Wonder if he’d workfor that much for EDM?
Nope, not tempting with a new CBA about to be negotiated and amnesty buyouts likely negotiated and even, if not, I’d rather buy him out on the even of expansion if he won’t waive.
Retention of $3M should be plenty – adding a sweetener is just egregious.
If a roster spot is required for an exploding player on their ELC, well, they can always send someone like Caggiula, Rattie, Kassian, etc. to the AHL or trade them for a non-roster player.
Sounds like its only one finger that is broken for Klef – the left pink – broken bones though, plural.
Josh Currie from Bear and Marody gives the Condors a 1-0 lead.
Dylan Wells has been recalled from the ECHL and is given the start – he’s stopped all 12 shots with 5 to go in the 2nd.
Montoya not dressed.
Yes he’s been good. If read somewhere player’s only bank 50% after agent, escrow and taxes. Not what most here make and not enough to hit the golf course full time ?
Agreed, took a look at his career earnings:
_800,000
_900,000
_900,000
1.200,000
_900,000
_660,000
_650,000
He’s going to take the biggest contract he can. That said, I think he is a player and I love the way he plays.
First and second round picks are now life blood for the Oilers. They should be certain if they move them they are getting a young under term contributor back, or the cap will crush them. It’s always important butmore now as the core is becoming established.
One goes for sure, maybe both. Although they may value what Russell does and keep them both if they can’t trade Seksy. It’s the Oilers, we hoped for the best…..
I don’t think so, but he’s at the end of the roster and needs to force his way into the lineup.
I’ll be surprised if Reg goes to the AHL. He’ll practice with them and start 3rd pairing when he’s ready to get his wind. Doesn’t happen much high level vets to the AHL for game shape. Although he said he would, classy.