Things we lost in the fire

by Lowetide

An NHL team can make a mistake any day of the year, but the main pressure points arrive three times: At the draft, early in free agency, and at the deadline. We have a tendency to remember the great deadline deals—Kent Nilsson, Bill Ranford, Reijo Ruotsalainen, Dwayne Roloson, Jaro Spacek, Sergei Samsonov—while forgetting the disasters. Like Miro Satan. I think it comes down, a lot of times, to motivation. Why is a team making a trade, what are the benefits and how much risk is involved?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: Peter Chiarelli’s free-agent success in 2018 may dictate Oilers big money moves in the summer of 2019.
  • Lowetide: Total recall—Who should be next on the Bakersfield-to-Edmonton shuttle?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers’ Rattie still figuring out how to play for new-old coach Ken Hitchcock.
  • Lowetide: No. 8 prospect Winter 2018: Kirill Maksimov.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Condors coach Jay Woodcroft has a lifetime of hockey knowledge to share and the notebooks to prove it.
  • Jonathan Willis: The Ryan Spooner for Ryan Strome trade has yet to pay dividends for the Edmonton Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Ken Hitchcock, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and finding that elusive perfect fit on the Oilers No. 2 line.
  • Jonathan Willis: Milan Lucic should not be an everyday player for the Edmonton Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 7 prospect Winter 2018: Caleb Jones
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 6 Prospect winter 2018: Cooper Marody
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 5 Prospect winter 2018: Ethan Bear.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 4 Prospect winter 2018: Ryan McLeod.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 Prospect winter 2018: Tyler Benson.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 2 Prospect winter 2018: Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 1 Prospect winter 2018: Evan Bouchard.

DON’T MAKE A BAD DEAL!

Glen Sather made the Miro Satan deal, so he said, because “he wasn’t playing all that much. But there was another part of the agenda. They were talking about him going back home (over his contract).” Ron Low said (about Satan) “he could always score but he was a streaky scorer.” That’s how every empire falls. Edmonton has made some terrible deadline deals. Here’s a brief history:

  • March 8, 1982—Oilers trade C Walt Poddubny and R Phil Drouillard to the Toronto Maple Leafs for C Laurie Boschman. Edmonton traded a future that included 28, 40, 38 and 38-goal seasons for Boschman, who was a more famous and established center. Slats got good value two years later.
  • March 10, 1992—Oilers trade L Martin Rucinsky to the Quebec Nordiques for G Ron Tugnutt and L Brad Zavisha.  When you need a goalie, you need a goalie. Edmonton traded away a long-time top-six winger future for a year and a bit of Tugnutt (they would lose him to Anaheim in the expansion draft).
  • March 18, 1997—Oilers trade L Miro Satan to the Buffalo Sabres for L Barrie Moore and D Craig Millar. The quotes above give us the reason, contract concerns and inconsistent play from a youngster. Major impact on the team 1997-2007.
  • February 27, 2007—Oilers trade L Ryan Smyth to the NY Islanders for C Ryan O’Marra, R Robert Nilsson and first-round draft pick (Alex Plante). Possibly the most stubborn trade in team history, although the ‘Mike Comrie for Corey Perry’ non-trade wins the day if we include deals that didn’t happen.
  • March 2, 2015—Oilers trade D Jeff Petry to the Montreal Canadiens for a second-round pick and a fourth-round pick (Jonas Siegenthaler and Caleb Jones). Craig MacTavish said ‘we can’t pay every defenseman $4 million’ and then sent the best one away. The mind boggles.

WHAT ARE THEY THINKING?

In the Oilers war room (why doesn’t hockey have war rooms? It’s as violent as football in terms of the impact of collisions, if not the frequency), I imagine they’re fine with the goalies. After that? There are issues:

  • If everything breaks right, the team should be able to make the playoffs with the current blue (if they’re all healthy). I think Klefbom-Larsson, Nurse-Russell, Gravel-Benning and Jones might be sufficient to sustain momentum, but I don’t think they’ll be able to catch anyone from behind. That’s why staying close is vital over the next four weeks. When Sekera returns, they’ll find a spot for him inside the top 6D, possibly second pair. Will it be in time? That’s the question about the defense.
  • Up front, you can see Ken Hitchcock running out of options in real time. Kailer Yamamoto is likely to be recalled, possibly in time for the game this weekend. After that, I think Cooper Marody has earned another shot.

Then we’re into the pre-deadline and deadline deals and that’s a difficult conversation. Peter Chiarelli’s track record at the deadline (going back to his Bruins days) suggests he is willing to overpay for specific things, but Edmonton can’t afford to lose any more transactions. It’s also borderline useless to trade for a rental when the team has so much work to do before becoming a Stanley Cup contender. So, what are the possible options? Here are the forwards I’m interested in:

  • R Tyler Toffoli, Los Angeles Kings. He makes $4.6 million this and next season, he has scored 20 goals or more three times. This year, his offense (1.16 5-on-5 per 60) is poor, but his shooting percentage (3.53) will correct and he’s shooting a lot (10.09 per 60 at 5-on-5). He can also penalty kill. Cost? Ryan Spooner and a pick/prospect? LAK would have to retain some coin.
  • L Andre Burakovsky, Washington Capitals. Making $3.0 million and getting a raise in the summer, he’s scoring 1.26 5-on-5 per 60. Is there a way to acquire him while also offloading $3M? And is he the right player? Seeing him live a few times, I can say the man can fly. Tobias Rieder and a sweetener? Not sure.
  • L Miles Wood, New Jersey Devils. Signed a four-year deal for $2.75 million back in the fall, but he hasn’t been close to established levels (0.99 5-on-5 points-per-60). Doubt the Devils would deal him but Wood can scoot and has some skills. I can’t estimate a price, but you’d have to imagine the Devils would want one of Edmonton’s best young (and emerging) forwards in the deal (as in JP or KY). It’s also likely they are fine with keeping him through his struggles.
  • L Frank Vatrano, Florida Panthers. Another former Chiarelli player, he’s having a nice season in Sunrise (10 goals) although he’s not flourishing at evens (1.19 5-on-5 points per 60). He is shooting a lot (10.98), shouldn’t be a pricey addition, and might flourish with a quality center. A pick? Caggiula?
  • R Mats Zuccarello, NY Rangers. He’s a free agent and makes $4.5 million, plus he isn’t tearing up the scoring race (1.02 5-on-5 per 60). On the other hand, he probably won’t cost more than a pick and the Rangers could retain. He isn’t a strong option but might be a likely one.
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LMHF#1

Glovjuice: Yes you are, trust me.

Nope. Fully sustainable when you change the way you live. I was also built to be this size and had gotten lazy.

Ryan

OriginalPouzar: Gotcha.I think I can’t definitely help you with your goals.

Let’s get in touch directly in the New Year.

sounds good, thanks

Glovjuice

LMHF#1:
Ryan,

1. Lose It App – hit your number every day. No excuses.
2. Keep working out.

I dropped 50 from Jan-June doing this. Never going back.

Yes you are, trust me.

LMHF#1

Ryan,

1. Lose It App – hit your number every day. No excuses.
2. Keep working out.

I dropped 50 from Jan-June doing this. Never going back.

JimmyV1965

v4ance: This logic is absolutely stupid.We are NOT a cup contender.We should NOT be looking at rentals until we are.

Growth first then get rentals when we are close.Anything else is a waste of assets.

LOL. Well I think your stupid for thinking a Talbot for Simmonds deal is stupid. This team needs to make the playoffs. Trading one rental for another is not stupid, no matter how much you disagree. If we trade Talbot for futures we’re looking st a second round pick maybe, I’ll take Simmonds.

Glovjuice

OriginalPouzar:
Disagree on the need to look at Paleo if his goals is to lose fat.

No matter what diet a person tries (Paleo, Vegan, high carb, low carb, intermittent fasting, whatever), it all comes down to calories in versus calories out.Every balance is the guiding principle.

Of course, there are numerous ways to ensure one is on a deficit and requirements to not lose muscle along with fact while in a deficit but, for fat loss, there is no need to “go Paleo” unless that tupe of diet is a preferred way of eating.

Agreed. The average person spends too much time and effort thinking that working out is more of a contributor to weight loss than calorie intake/burning. It all starts with calories. Of course working out burns more calories than sitting on your ass but most would be surprised how much/hard working out is required to burn lots of calories.

OriginalPouzar

Disagree on the need to look at Paleo if his goals is to lose fat.

No matter what diet a person tries (Paleo, Vegan, high carb, low carb, intermittent fasting, whatever), it all comes down to calories in versus calories out. Every balance is the guiding principle.

Of course, there are numerous ways to ensure one is on a deficit and requirements to not lose muscle along with fact while in a deficit but, for fat loss, there is no need to “go Paleo” unless that tupe of diet is a preferred way of eating.

Sierra

Ryan: I am not being sarcastic at all. We’ve discussed this before…

I work out a fair amount— not as much as you mind, but I stillhave put on a fair amount of weight over the past three years. Let’s say about 20 lbs and I was lean before but not super lean.

I thought this is 40 though I haven’t been particularly happy about it.

I’d like to lose the twenty pounds I’ve put on plus another ten for good measure.

You can’t outrun your fork and that’s the current issue for me. I definitely have to make some lifestyle changes.

There’s plenty out there already on this, from books to websites to trainers and nutritionists. Start with looking at the Paleo Diet.

ArmchairGM

russ99:
Would like the Oilers brass to be proactive and trade for a player who can help this year but will fill a need next year, like a winger with some goal scoring acumen or a defenseman that could jump into the top six.

Name names, please.

BerkhamstedOil

v4ance,

I don’t believe you two are that far apart. However, I think a Talbot ‘rental’ is not going to fetch as much as we might hope – May have to settle for a rental ourselves if we are still in the playoff mix and looking to add.

v4ance

JimmyV1965: Simmonds is strictly a rental. Resigning him would be a disaster. I would never move a real prospect or pick for a 30 year old UFA. Talbot has the exact same contract so that seems like a natural deal to me. If I’m trading picks and prospects, it’s for a solid winger with term.

This logic is absolutely stupid. We are NOT a cup contender. We should NOT be looking at rentals until we are.

Growth first then get rentals when we are close. Anything else is a waste of assets.

drglen

Hitch ” when you play that many minutes sometimes you’re at the scene of the accident” ..

Love this guy.

(from Jim Matheson article, Edmonton Journal)

OriginalPouzar

Ryan: I am not being sarcastic at all. We’ve discussed this before…

I work out a fair amount— not as much as you mind, but I stillhave put on a fair amount of weight over the past three years. Let’s say about 20 lbs and I was lean before but not super lean.

I thought this is 40 though I haven’t been particularly happy about it.

I’d like to lose the twenty pounds I’ve put on plus another ten for good measure.

You can’t outrun your fork and that’s the current issue for me. I definitely have to make some lifestyle changes.

Gotcha. I think I can’t definitely help you with your goals.

Let’s get in touch directly in the New Year.

drglen

Todd Macallan:
Bouchard is so laid back he can see his own pelvis.

‘klop’…. (the sound of my palm hitting my forehead)

drglen

OriginalPouzar,

Good god, man. Don’t fall in the water or you’ll sink. Me, .. I will definitely outlast you in a cold water hypothermia rescue situation.

Looks beautiful there. Amazing. – 17 here at the moment.

Glovjuice

OriginalPouzar:
One drawback of always going away over the holidays is that I miss the beginning of the Wprld Juniors.

With that said, I guess Sri Lanka is with it.

Amazing part of the world.

https://twitter.com/coopsie39/status/1077012005167472640?s=12

Yuk

Derek

OriginalPouzar: Can’t tell if you are serious or not.

I’d read it. I doubt I could follow it for longer than a few days but I’d certainly give it a read. 🙂

Ryan

OriginalPouzar: Can’t tell if you are serious or not.

I am not being sarcastic at all. We’ve discussed this before…

I work out a fair amount— not as much as you mind, but I still have put on a fair amount of weight over the past three years. Let’s say about 20 lbs and I was lean before but not super lean.

I thought this is 40 though I haven’t been particularly happy about it.

I’d like to lose the twenty pounds I’ve put on plus another ten for good measure.

You can’t outrun your fork and that’s the current issue for me. I definitely have to make some lifestyle changes.

russ99

Would like the Oilers brass to be proactive and trade for a player who can help this year but will fill a need next year, like a winger with some goal scoring acumen or a defenseman that could jump into the top six.

OriginalPouzar

Ryan: When you get around to it can you create a blog or write a book… PDF even. You could call it, “the 40-year-old diet.” I’d be curious to read it.

Can’t tell if you are serious or not.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Derek:
Why the fuck is the Captain of the team flopping around like that in an 8 – 0 game?Embarressing.

Ducks gonna do Duck things.

Ryan

OriginalPouzar:
One drawback of always going away over the holidays is that I miss the beginning of the Wprld Juniors.

With that said, I guess Sri Lanka is with it.

Amazing part of the world.

https://twitter.com/coopsie39/status/1077012005167472640?s=12

When you get around to it can you create a blog or write a book… PDF even. You could call it, “the 40-year-old diet.” I’d be curious to read it.

OriginalPouzar

One drawback of always going away over the holidays is that I miss the beginning of the Wprld Juniors.

With that said, I guess Sri Lanka is with it.

Amazing part of the world.

https://twitter.com/coopsie39/status/1077012005167472640?s=12

Derek

Why the fuck is the Captain of the team flopping around like that in an 8 – 0 game? Embarressing.

drglen

sigh…. I would have liked Bouch on the roster this year… of course this is Junior level competition. Great Junior, but still junior.

Todd Macallan

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
That’s a pretty relaxed looking third assist for Bouch.Leon’s narrative might be in jeopardy when Evan arrives.

————————–
Cool Hand Bouch

BornInAGretzkyJersey

That’s a pretty relaxed looking assist for Bouch, third so far. Leon’s narrative might be in jeopardy when Evan arrives.

Todd Macallan

Another assist for Bouchard just as PP expires.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Bouchard has been physical tonight, to go with the precision passing and (to my eye) fine skating.

Todd Macallan

Bouchard with a PP assist for his second point.

Bos8

Ryan: Yeah, that’s a contract fraught with difficulties,

Chiasson doesn’t do much or skate well and if the goals dry up, it will be a terrible contract. He’s not a 32 % shooter.

Someone needs to teach Chiarelli that you can never win a negotiation that you’re not willing to walk away from.

Bring back Yamamoto or maybe Caggiula to the first line, they’re motoring all the time.

TMac time all over again.

Todd Macallan

Bouchard is so laid back he can see his own pelvis.

Professor Q

Poor Bob McKenzie.

Apparently the Mississippi Steelheads are a team in the OHL.

Woodguy v2.0

Lowetide:
Evan Bouchard is sending 500-mile passes at leisure pace. Holy shit he’s good.

I don’t think he’s ever hurried to anything.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Jared McIsaac with his best Steve Staios impression out there on a big PK.

Derek

LadiesloveSmid:
Brook -> Dobson -> Brook

Bouchard not going to get a lot of ice time….?

He started the game? Had a giveaway that resulted in the only Dane shot to this point so maybe hes in a little hot water.

LadiesloveSmid

Brook -> Dobson -> Brook

Bouchard not going to get a lot of ice time….?

JimmyV1965

McSorley33:
JimmyV1965,

As reported, this organization has 1 high end prospect in the system. Evan Bouchard.

Benson and Yamamoto have not exactly lit the AHL on fire.

Tyler has 1 more point than Brad Malone.

We need more scoring winger prospects. Not less.

Not sure how you can add at the deadline without giving up picks /or prospects.

Some people watch Lucic play hockey and think if only we could obtain another 30 year old
Power forward -helloWayne Simmonds ( who turns 31 this summer )

Other people watch Milan Lucic and learn their lesson and shudder at the idea of Simmonds.

Side Note: 30 year old Patrick Maroon has 2 goals this year.

Simmonds is strictly a rental. Resigning him would be a disaster. I would never move a real prospect or pick for a 30 year old UFA. Talbot has the exact same contract so that seems like a natural deal to me. If I’m trading picks and prospects, it’s for a solid winger with term.

Ryan

Scungilli Slushy: Nice article LT.

I’d rather they moved on from Chiasson. Yes he’s scoring but I don’t see much help outside of that. The Oilers scoring issues are related more to poor team play around tactics, and slow tempo which is a result of team play, but also players not getting to pucks quickly enough.

Connor and Leon need different compliments, but both need quick players that can play at their pace mentally as well.

Yeah, that’s a contract fraught with difficulties,

Chiasson doesn’t do much or skate well and if the goals dry up, it will be a terrible contract. He’s not a 32 % shooter.

Someone needs to teach Chiarelli that you can never win a negotiation that you’re not willing to walk away from.

Derek

Canada Denmark about to begin!

R/H****ystreams for your viewing pleasure.

Jaxon

drglen: I can tell you one thing… Oilers should have scouts in Sweden looking for D men. !!!

Should have? Klefbom, Larsson, Berglund, Lagesson, Persson seems to say have. Two roster, three promising prospects. That said, I agree, Sweden has produced arguably better D than Canada in the last decade.

Scungilli Slushy

Lowetide:
For The Athletic: Peter Chiarelli’s free-agent success in 2018 may dictate the Oilers big money moves in the summer of 2019.

https://theathletic.com/733595/2018/12/26/peter-chiarellis-free-agent-success-in-2018-may-dictate-the-oilers-big-money-moves-in-the-summer-of-2019/

Nice article LT.

I’d rather they moved on from Chiasson. Yes he’s scoring but I don’t see much help outside of that. The Oilers scoring issues are related more to poor team play around tactics, and slow tempo which is a result of team play, but also players not getting to pucks quickly enough.

Connor and Leon need different compliments, but both need quick players that can play at their pace mentally as well.

Munny

Kapanen is at the top of my off-season wish list. But I’m pretty sure he’s at the top of every GMs list too.

Scungilli Slushy

If Ehlers and Gudas are available (Ehlers summer) that would fill the holes. Gudas shouldn’t be too pricey and WG thought the Jets would want futures as their roster is set amd capped out.

If cap space actually has value outside of Chiarelli sell offs both deals could help and not bleed out.

Moving Sekera or Russell, Talbot and Kassian opens enough cap space and extra.

drglen

So , Canucks tomorrow. What’s the plan to change the result this time.

We’re still depleted, but they checked us and kept us outside, and we gave too much space to Pettersson.

(didn’t connor hit a crossbar in that game, or two?)

Derek

Bruce McCurdy: Seth Jones, eh. He would solve a whole lot of problems..

Nice Mike Hunt reference though.

Excuse me, Caleb Jones. Seth would solve a bunch of problems though you are correct. He might even return a first rounder when management decided to replace him with a 20 year old.

innercitysmytty

godot10,

This for sure – I don’t think TMac or the organization has done JP any favours. One piece that I don’t get and it’s more because I’ve never heard his explanation, is that from day one Gregor has said he’s on a long-term development timeline. I’m not sure why this needed to be a foregone conclusion? Coming from Finland there was likely to be an adjustment period but why does it need to be 3-5 years. Certainly didn’t take Rantanan that long when developed properly and then stapled to Mackinnon. He was a consensus top-3 pick, which isn’t a guarantee, but he has a helluva toolbox to work with. I hope Hitch can live with some defensive mistakes because I think stapling him to either Drai or Connor should be a must for the remainder of this year regardless of specific in game events.