Hello friends and welcome back to the show that never ends. The Edmonton Oilers remain in the playoff race but cannot stop the current free fall. The team is bleeding out on main street, Peter Chiarelli trying to fix the holes with a mountain of silicone sealants and a glue gun, while Ken Hitchcock is trying to get his three dressed up to look like nine. We talk of better days shining through, but the defense got flattened by injuries and the team had no answer. Six losses in a row, five losses in a row at home during renewal season. The call is coming from inside the house.
Crazies like me keep saying stay the course, you’re on the right track in building up the system and giving your scouts a draft pick in every round, but crazies like me are lost in the flood at this time.
Ken Hitchcock’s current Oilers record is 9-8-2, a close match for Todd McLellan’s 9-10-1. We are here. Again.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Outstanding offer is here.
- New Lowetide: Oilers No. 9 prospect Winter 2018: Joel Persson.
- New Lowetide: Oilers acquire Brandon Manning in a Sunday shocker, and this ought to be interesting.
- New Lowetide: Oilers acquire Alexander Petrovic from Panthers, flushing Chris Wideman and a 2019 third-round pick in the trade.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Struggling Oilers counting on Kris Russell to revitalize depleted defence.
- New Minnia Feng: The head-scratching scenarios, cringe-worthy lines and questionable graphics in commercials featuring NHL players.
- Lowetide: In a ‘Hail Mary’ roster shuffle, Oilers recall Kailer Yamamoto, waive Valentin Zykov and place Alex Chiasson on IR.
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 8 prospect Winter 2018: Kirill Maksimov.
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 7 prospect Winter 2018: Caleb Jones.
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 6 Prospect winter 2018: Cooper Marody.
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 5 Prospect winter 2018: Ethan Bear.
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 4 Prospect winter 2018: Ryan McLeod.
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 Prospect winter 2018: Tyler Benson.
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 2 Prospect winter 2018: Kailer Yamamoto.
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 1 Prospect winter 2018: Evan Bouchard.
OILERS AFTER 39
- Oilers in 2015: 15-21-3, 33 points; goal differential -22
- Oilers in 2016: 19-13-7, 45 points; goal differential +4
- Oilers in 2017: 17-19-3, 37 points; goal differential -12
- Oilers in 2018: 18-18-3, 39 points; goal differential -7
There’s little difference between last year’s Oilers and this year’s team. The goal differential is a little encouraging but the wins stayed away leading up to Christmas and now the new year.
OILERS IN DECEMBER
- Oilers in December 2015: 6-6-2, 14 points; goal differential -11
- Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, 19 points; goal differential +2
- Oilers in December 2017: 7-5-1, 15 points; goal differential +3
- Oilers in December 2018: 6-7-1, 13 points; goal differential -12
The six game losing streak sewered an excellent start and the Oilers enter January as likely to be sellers as buyers at the deadline. The addition of two veteran defensemen may come in handy should management sell off, although that was clearly not the intent of Sunday’s trades.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: Vegas (Expected 0-1-0) Actual (1-0-0)
- On the road to: Dallas, St. Louis (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: Minnesota, Calgary (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: Colorado,Winnipeg(Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
- At home to: Philadelphia (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Vancouver, San Jose, Winnipeg (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 0-5-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 6-7-1, 13 points in 14 games
We’re through December, this is the closest I’ve come to predicting the club in the season’s three months. I think we’ll look back on this month over the offseason and credit these 14 games with what will no doubt be a massive roster turnover. How many forwards are going to lose their NHL careers because of this season? Six?
DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT
- Jones-Larsson were 23-15 in 17:46, 13-8 shots, 2-1 goals and 7-0 HDSC. Pairing was far more successful than Nurse-Larsson, and were helped by 5:36 (2-0 goals) and 11-4 Corsi events with McDavid 5-on-5 (15-13 without the captain). Went 7-3 in 6:51 against Connor-Little-Laine, 9-6 (1-1 goals) in 5:16 against Ehlers-Scheifele-Wheeler. An errant backpass by Jones found the tape of Wheeler for the third Jets goal but the young blue has been so good no complaints from this corner of the world.
- Manning-Benning went 14-17 in 11:31, 6-9 shots, 0-2 goals and 1-3 HDSC. Benning had a rough night, I think he might be odd man out when the other defensemen get healthy. Manning blocked five shots and hit three people. Went 10-7 in 7:06 against Perreault-Lowry-Tanev, Benning’s blind and poor shot to get the puck out in the seconds before the Tanev goal was costly.
- Nurse-Petrovic were 6-21 in 17:58, 1-13 shots, 0-1 goals and 2-7 HDSC. Even more concerning, the pairing dragged down McDavid (4-11 in 11:22) during the heart of his evening. Nurse is struggling badly, Petrovic didn’t help. The Nurse Puck IQ numbers were good a year ago, I’m not suggesting anything rash with the big defenseman, but it would be wise to back him off in minutes until Nurse finds his game. Went 3-9 in 10:28 against Ehlers-Scheifele-Wheeler. Petrovic’s poor play before the first Lemieux goal directly contributed to the tally.
- Mikko Koskinen stopped 32 of 36, .889. He made some big stops but that last goal was a killer, seemed to lose position.
- Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com.
FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT
- Khaira-McDavid-Rattie went 9-10 in 10:25, 5-5 shots, 1-1 goals and 3-0 HDSC. McDavid also contributed to a goal while playing with Nuge and Leon. Went 12-10 in 13:39 against Morrissey-Trouba, 6-6 shots, 2-1 goals and 3-1 HDSC. The captain was 14-5 Corsi, 8-4 shots and 2-1 goals away from Nurse. Went 3-2 (1-0 goals) in 2:34 with Nuge and Leon, Hitchcock wanted this win badly.
- Lucic-Nuge-Puljujarvi were 11-11 in 9:40, 4-4 shots, no goals and 1-2 HDSC. Went 8-4 against Chariot-Myers. Line did little together, Nuge impressive when playing up the lineup. Lucic had one of his better games this season, had a takeaway and skated well. His ability to take a pass is almost completely gone, don’t know what anyone can do about it.
- Rieder-Draisaitl-Spooner went 11-13, 6-7 shots, 0-1 goals and 4-5 HDSC. I didn’t mind the trio, they were dynamic, but Leon’s goals came while playing up the lineup. Went 8-13 against Morrissey-Trouba. Spooner had five shot attempts, Rieder three.
- Gambardella-Brodziak-Kassian were 2-7 in 4:58 (Gambardella) and 8-14 in 8:40 (Kassian, 0-2 in goals) in a poor outing for the line. Went 0-7 in 3:55 against Morrow-Kulikov.
PETER CHIARELLI
If Peter Chiarelli was willing to trade for two defensemen, suspect the idea of adding a winger who can score goals is also being contemplated. Connor Brown had 20 goals two years ago and 14 last season, but has fallen on hard times with an overall shooting percentage of just 6.7 this year. He might be available and could help.
His most common linemates this season are Par Lindholm, Nazem Kadri and Andreas Johansson, so he is neither a feature winger or a buried one. He is absolutely more ready to help an NHL team than at least two of Edmonton’s current regulars at the position, and might give Ken Hitchcock another wrinkle on the skill lines.
OILERS 2019 DRAFT PICKS
- No. 10 overall
- No. 41 overall
- No. 81 overall
- No. 103 overall
- No. 165 overall
- No. 196 overall
LOWETIDE 2019 TOP 20 FOR THE DRAFT
- LC Jack Hughes, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). A brilliant offensive player, cerebral, quick and highly skilled.
- R Kaapo Kakko, Turkku (Sm-Liiga). A big power forward with tons of talent who is emerging in real time.
- R Dylan Cozens, Lethbridge (WHL). Size, skill and he can skate. Range of skills, accurate shooter.
- RC Kirby Dach, Saskatoon (WHL).A dynamic player with size and tremendous skill, has speed, wingspan and an excellent release.
- R Vasili Podkolzin, St. Petersburg (MHL). Smart player with tons of offensive ability, but also possesses good two-way instinct.
- L Arthur Kaliyev, Hamilton (OHL). He’s a fantastic scoring prospect. Good not great skater.
- LC Trevor Zegras, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). Undersized and highly skilled, elusive and aggressive with very good speed.
- L Jakob Pelletier, Moncton (QMJHL). Undersized skill winger with two-way ability.
- LC Peyton Krebs, Kootenay (WHL).Skill forward who can score, he has quick feet and good hands.
- LC Ryan Suzuki, Barrie (OHL). Great vision, skill, tremendous passer. If he were faster, he’d be top five.
- R Cole Caufield, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). He’s small, fast and a ridiculous scorer. Quick release, accurate.
- LD Bowen Byram, Vancouver (WHL). Explosive speed is his top attribute but he’s also excellent with the puck and owns a heavy shot.
- LC Alex Turcotte, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). A strong two-way reputation, he is skilled and an excellent skater. Injuries a worry.
- LD Cam York, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). The latest impact puck mover out of the USHL, great speed, passing and creativity.
- L Matthew Boldy, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). Bigger winger with skill, he’s strong on the puck and can score goals.
- RC Raphael Lavoie, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Big center with a long reach, and a plus shot.
- LD Thomas Harley, Mississauga (OHL). Good size, speed and he’s posting impressive numbers. Spiking as we speak.
- LC Alex Newhook, Victoria (BCHL).Terrific scorer with playmaking skilled and dogged determination on the backcheck. High end potential.
- LD Matthew Robertson, Edmonton (WHL). Big two-way defenseman with good speed and some offense.
- LD Philip Broberg, AIK (Allsvenskan). He’s big and can skate, while also displaying puck moving ability.
I have Arthur Kaliyev higher than he’ll go, but don’t believe he would fall to No. 10 overall. I also like Cole Caufield for the Oilers at No. 10. Don’t pay too much attention to current lists, we’ll get a big shuffle after WJ’s and scouting services will begin to drill down on the Euros in the coming days.
I have decided to begin 2019 draft coverage in January, you’ll probably get a list on Sundays of current rankings and some idea about trends. I’ll also track the Oilers games of course, and should they find a way to stay in the race (Edmonton is in the race now, but fading with each passing day) I’ll devote less time to the draft.
Happy New Year!
Our biggest worry right now is Petrovic 4×5.
Neither of which is ahead of Bouchard in their draft plus 1 years or any more of a lock to be a more prominent NHL player than Bouchard.
Dobson and Walstrom
Tragikomix,
I’ve mentioned before how hilarious this would be.
Right you are.
Connor McMichael
London Knights / OHL
Ranked #17 by FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS
http://theoilknight.ca/2018/07/09/top-10-ohl-prospects-for-2019-nhl-draft/
I see one of the guys I targeted in the fall to watch for a waiver claim was placed on waivers by Carolina and claimed by Nashville. Not claiming Phillip Di Giuseppe may be a missed opportunity.
Who should they have taken? I wanted Wahlstrom, but it doesn’t sound like his draft +1 is anything to write home about. The guy is +20 in 13 games. The league leader is +33 in 38 games. He’s 23rd in dmen scoring with 18 pts in 13 games. His PPG is 1.38, which is I think best in the league for dmen. He might never play in the NHL, but what exactly has he done that worries you?
Keith Gretzky wasn’t hired until after the 2016 draft
1) Can you name me an available player who you felt wasn’t risky at #10 in the 2018 draft, without looking?
2) As for Yamamoto and Benson…
Yamamoto was selected 22nd overall, Benson 32nd.
Here are the 22nd and 32nd leading scorers from past drafts:
2010 – Riley Sheahan; Johann Larsson
2011 – Sven Baerschi; Josh Manson (Closest F Markus Granlund)
2012 – Ryan Murray (Closest F Radek Faksa); Ben Hutton (Closest F Alex Kerfoot)
2013 – Josh Morrissey (Closest F Andrew Copp); Tyler Bertuzzi
2014 – Danton Heinen; Sonny Milano
There’s one non-role player in there. You don’t automatically get a player at 22nd overall. Kailer Yamamoto had some of the most impressive production in the draft, he’s absolutely worth the swing.
One team gets an impact guy at #20th-30th. The first round is naturally misleading, there’s usually only 10-15 prospects who are day-of-draft decent chances to turn into impact players. You’re picking the back half of the first, there are no entitlements to top half of the roster players. Everyone’s taking a risk. There is no safe pick back there.
In relative terms, I’d say the Oilers made a ‘safer’ pick than some others. They picked the objectively most talented producer left on the board.
Jared Knight, Ty Rattie, Mitch Moroz, Chris Bigras, Jayce Hawryluk, and Christian Fishcher.
Those are the names of the six #32 selections preceding Tyler Benson in 2016.
Everyone is taking risks at the draft table.
If they weren’t it wouldn’t be nearly as compelling.
Well, to be honest, don’t know. Just what I thought the narrative was.
Well its tough to look at just the results from Chia’s and especially Gretzky junior’s draft results and make any conclusions.
The first round picks are fairing poorly so far. We know that much. Puljujarvi and Yamamoto have been given shots in the top six and haven’t been able to produce.
Keith’s picks mostly haven’t even turned pro so while I’m not going to say they are bad, I also don’t see how those picks can get passing grades either.
If they all fail to turn into useful players its the same as its ever been. I’ll go with that option until I see something different.
I chose Nashville because they are a model franchise. Edmonton will need to draft like them in order to have lasting success.
You could compare to almost any other team though and find Edmonton’s drafting outside the first round to be left wanting.
Did Katz pick Yak or Mact? It was never really laid out clearly.
Because each of them play over 20 minutes a game, while the other forwards play 10-15 minutes per game. They need rest and recovery time. It is not old school. It is new school.
Nurse and Larsson would be with them but the Oilers are breaking in two new defensemen, so they can’t at the moment.
Hey what about Backes? If he’s playing poorly or been press boxed, .. give him a call!
Not so sure that’s a decent thing in 2018-2028. We agree on many things but the pick was an unnecessary risk. I hope I’m wrong but I fear Yamo, Bouchard and Benson will all deliver below their draft slot – Puli as well but not risky per se.
Keith Gretzky is the Assistant General Manager. Did he have a say in this transaction? Did he have final decision making power?
You guys might try looking at what roles people are in. It’s actually posted on the Oilers web site.
Based on who they have identified as professional scouts, it looks like an area that could use some attention. Of the 13 Scouts listed with the organization, 11 are amateur scouts. 2 are professional scouts.
If any of the pro scouts responsibilities are outside the NHL, I could see how they could make such bad trades – there appears to be a serious lack of people to provide quality scouting information on players within the NHL.
The mistake was not drafting Puljujarvi. The mistake was everything they did to and with him after he was drafted.
Evan Bouchard is Larry Murphy reincarnated. A few coaches loved Larry a lot. Fans, especially Canadian ones, mostly hated him.
Spooner ? Man. This is funny. He was totally awful yesterday.
godot10,
You know the answer to this…he once played for the Boston Bruins under Chiarelli so he must be brought back. All former Bruins welcome here apparently…
If Keith Gretzky is doing his job well, why do the OIlers have Spooner?
//Nurse-Petrovic were 6-21 in 17:58, 1-13 shots, 0-1 goals and 2-7 HDSC. Even more concerning, the pairing dragged down McDavid (4-11 in 11:22) during the heart of his evening. Nurse is struggling badly, Petrovic didn’t help. The Nurse Puck IQ numbers were good a year ago, I’m not suggesting anything rash with the big defenseman, but it would be wise to back him off in minutes until Nurse finds his game. Went 3-9 in 10:28 against Ehlers-Scheifele-Wheeler. Petrovic’s poor play before the first Lemieux goal directly contributed to the tally.//
Blaming your best players apparently is not only a management thing.
Nurse had one practice with Petrovic, a 3rd pairing D at best, a D who doesn’t know Hitch’s system yet, and hard matched against one of the top line in the league in SchieffleWheeler, usually with Rattie as one of the forwards with McDavid.
And it is apparently Nurse’s fault.
Nurse got the assignment because he is emotionally unbreakable. His belief system in himself can handle being put in “mission impossible” situations.
Yes he still has flaws. He is still not remotely ready for the assignment he was given, with the D partner and some of the forwards he was given to take it on with.
And it is apparently his fault.
Cozens has separated from Dach a bit in actual goals scored. And is a bit more physical. Cozens is on a better team. Somedays the coin flips, and it comes up Dach. Some days the coin flips, and it comes up Cozens.
He has been on IR before for his back. This pre- season it was reported that it was acting up.
Question is the extent of the discomfort and long term prognosis. Hoping he’s fine or coyrse.
Sorry if this was already posted, but…
– Oilers are 5 points behind the 2nd Western Wildcard
– Oilers are 5 points ahead of dead last in the NHL
Also, I love Hitchcock as the coach. Even if he ends up with a worse record than the previous guy, his media avails are way more entertaining than the on-ice product.
Haha, I love this story. Fantastic!
Obviously none of those fucking muppets are reading this blog
Did you mean Stay, Sit, Rollover?
I prefer Hunter should Fetch and Stay in that order ?
well, you can get loose for the gig and not quite realize the damage you are doing until later in the day or tomorrow. Adnrenalin also pushes you. ….. I sure hope he doesn’t have a serious back problem. But I heard the oilers have state of the art training facilities so they’ll get him ready. Geez I read today that Lowry was getting some injections for his bad back ( probably Kortisone I’ve not yet found out).. which is not good if that’s the case but Lowry is early 30s and this is ‘it’ for him in some way. Do it now to keep playing.
Really… wow. That is a bit shocking. Well, what’s the fun of owning a team if you cant set the starting lineup. ..
Maybe I was wrong about him. I figured he just hired the best people he could find and let them do their jobs. But unless he actually told PC to get Lucic and Reinhart at all costs… he’s not the cause of any of this.
(btw he probably hires people to keep tabs on his reputation, including reading blogs and tweets.. caution is advised if you actually work for him)
I did some of the landscaping work on his mansion. I’ll say this.. everything was ‘over the top’ and then times that by 30, and he also insisted on some borderline unreasonable things. For example, tree placement. moving and bringing in pretty mature trees, and.. you know… in spite of good advise ( there is no way you can just stick a mature tree in some locations and expect them to take.. the combination of factors allowing it to find what it needed to grow that size in the first place..not present at all, when moved).. he was adamant.. so.. maybe there’s something to this.
nobody fired or traded today? What gives..
I had some business interaction with the Katz Oilers. Take it for what its worth he is very involved. I was shocked!
I don’t buy the narrative that Larsson has a bad back.
There is no way with a bad back he would be as physical as he is.
He separates opposing players from the puck better than any other Oiler Dman.
You don’t do that if you have a bad back.
https://sports.theonion.com/ovechkin-hopes-to-inspire-other-athletes-to-power-throu-1826966445
When you think you’ve had too much too drink, ask yourself what would OV8 do
Stay.
He picked Yak. He hires the hockey ops team through his executive and VP level staff.
That’s great feedback. A real life top 4 d man emerging!
I’m also still okay with Nurse, he will contribute.
But Sekera, something is going on there, I don’t think he can be pencilled in fornext year. And Larson, the team knows more than we do, but I believe Larson could be out at any point. He may even struggle to be in a line up in two years. His back could force him out and we are on the hunt again, that’s why I worry about the perpetual rebuild
However, as long as current GM sits in that seat, there should be a trade freeze in place.
Need a ride to the airport?
I actually don’t want anyone to leave,
Disagreement makes for better radio
digger50,
I should’ve stated “A problem with this team” but yes bottom six need to simplify and attack more instead of fancy plays was the entire point of my rant. But I’m no coach…..
I don’t see this as the “real problem” with the team. However I do believe it is a valid point. In regards to playing with Connor he needs a give and go man and he needs a big predictable presence in front of the net. This guy needs to be in the same place over and over. Find space, stick on the ice, Connor finds him. The best at this was Maroon. Chaisson this year. Rattie has been doing an excellent job as well, but he does take a beating in front of the net.
Kassian does not have the finish but he’s good for a try-out. And Rattie is buds with Nuge – seems he’s always played well with Nuge. Connor – Nuge – Rattie is still a great combo but Hitch much prefers Nuge at center. (Khaira would also be good for a try-out here)
Im distracted. It would be foolish for a player not to try and learn from Connor but I agree, this is mostly wishful thinking. A less fancy, more direct route to scoring a goal? Yes we need some of that. I thought Cammalleri was good at showing more direct goals, too bad he was past his prime.
And then there is the other view. It “seems” like they are just being too fancy trying to imitate Connor since all we seem to see is Connor/ Drai goals and then nothing; when in reality the other wingers just can’t score in any manner.
The Katz good/bad owner debate really comes down to is he the reason the OBC is still hanging around the team, and how much influence they really have we can only speculate on. If they are then it is on him…after the last decade and some of fultility should make it obvious it needs to end, which is highly unlikely imho.
McLellan was basically doing the same. Hitch seems a little less rigid with rosters which I prefer.
Nooooooooo
Agreed. At ‘the coliseum’ I’ve seen: Roger Water twice; Dire Straits; AC/DC four times; Black Sabbath; Rush four times; Green Day; Paul McCartney; Iron Maiden 3-4 times; Judas Priest; Metallica; Chris Deburg; Cher; ZZ Top; Neil Young; David Bowie; Def Lepord and MANY MORE. With many of these decades ago.
You should stay regardless of the vote, you animal
Yeah, I like Brian Ferry. But I wouldn’t buy a car off him.
I was just about to make a post like this. He’s real. The instincts are there.
I record game notes; very brief and categorised.
‘Stop’ is recorded when a player makes a play without the puck that ‘stops’ the forward momentum of the puck, no matter where it happens on the ice.
Pinching in and stopping a breakout, stop.
Standing up at the blueline, stop.
Angling a drive into the boards, stop.
Intercepting the puck in any way, stop.
Getting a stick on a NZ pass that alters the momentum of the play, stop.
Caleb Jones almost had as many stops as the rest of the Dcorps combined.
This is like, a guy with a better first pass and skate-defuse coming out of his own zone than most of the (current; injured) Oilers Dcorps, and there’s not really a trade-off.
It’s not an Evan Bouchard or Ethan Bear situation, he’s just unambiguously an NHLer so far.
There’s no trade-off from a facet of his game that’s replacement level or below. He doesn’t really have to be exceptional at anything to shore up deficiencies, which is plenty more than most of his competition.
It’s huge. You can put some irons in the fire if this works out.
I’ll take that as a “hunter leaves” making it 1 – 1 with Jethro Tull and Wilde…hurry contest ends at puck drop vs the Yotes!
Hunter1909 Sign Poll:
Do you think Hunter should have to tell Wilde what his sign is?
Reply yes or no to this post.