Game 43 2018-19: Oilers at Sharks

The Oilers enter today with a chance to match No. 8 Minnesota and Anaheim in points (Minnesota will hold the spot no matter if Edmonton wins, due to games in hand), meaning the claw back from the losing streak will have gained real traction. Easier said than done, the San Jose Sharks are on a roll and Erik Karlsson has found the range.

The Oilers are determined to make the postseason, meaning another transaction flurry on the horizon.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: Oilers midseason report card, brought to you by the letter ‘F’
  • New Jonathan Willis: Unlikely scorer Jujhar Khaira has forced his way up the Oilers’ lineup on merit.
  • New Black Dog Pat: There’s no in-season balancing for the Oilers
  • New Lowetide: Oilers No. 10 prospect Winter 2018: Dylan Wells.
  • New Jonathan Willis: The Oilers have a shoddy roster and when they’re bad, they’re really bad.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: From 2 to 98, Oilers share the stories behind their jersey numbers.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Edmonton’s collection of prospect defencemen gives the team options now, in the future and in trade talks
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 9 prospect Winter 2018: Joel Persson.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 8 prospect Winter 2018: Kirill Maksimov.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 7 prospect Winter 2018: Caleb Jones
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 6 Prospect winter 2018: Cooper Marody
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 5 Prospect winter 2018: Ethan Bear.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 4 Prospect winter 2018: Ryan McLeod.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 Prospect winter 2018: Tyler Benson.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 2 Prospect winter 2018: Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 1 Prospect winter 2018: Evan Bouchard.

OILERS AFTER 43

  • Oilers in 2015: 17-23-3, 37 points; goal differential -23
  • Oilers in 2016: 21-15-7, 49 points; goal differential +3
  • Oilers in 2017: 18-22-3, 39 points; goal differential -24
  • Oilers in 2018: 20-19-3, 43 points; goal differential -6

This edition of the Oilers is well clear of the non-playoff teams in goal differential (remember, EN goals have been removed) but the point total is in the neigbourhood of last year’s team. A win tonight would both put clearance between this year and last, and elevate the 2018-19 team into the general airspace of the playoff club from 2016-17.

OILERS IN JANUARY

  • Oilers in January 2016: 2-2-0, four points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in January 2017: 2-2-0, four points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in January 2018: 1-3-0, two points; goal differential -11
  • Oilers in January 2019: 2-1-0, two points; goal differential +1

A win tonight gives the team a nice road trip to start the year and a little traction compared to other McDavid January clubs. The Oilers need some more wins against the Pacific (currently 6-7-1) and tonight is a great opportunity. A win tonight places the Oilers on a trajectory to finish 82, 38-34-10, 86 points.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

  • On the road to: Arizona, Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: Florida, Arizona, Buffalo (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Calgary, Carolina, Detroit (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 4-5-2, 10 points in 11 games
  • Current results: 2-1-0, four points in two games

I’ll tell you this team has a chance while also telling you it’s an extremely difficult road. They’re going to add some talent via trade in the coming days, and that brings us to this morning’s discussion.

POSSIBLE ASSETS OUT

  • 2019 first-round pick. This has the highest value, likely to land somewhere between 10 and 15 overall (at best, Edmonton could make the playoffs). High value, one would have to think the pick moves for a skill forward with term.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi. One of the things I mention in the Oilers report card article published this morning is the progress made offensively under Ken Hitchcock. It isn’t earth shattering, but he is posting crooked numbers more often. That could either make him a keeper or give him more trade value.
  • Jujhar Khaira. Listed because he has value and the Oilers could grab a short-term upgrade by dealing him. It would be something close to madness—Khaira is a rare forward who developed in the system and is a somewhat unique skill set—but if the Oilers are as desperate as it appears, this is possible.
  • Matt Benning. Ken Hitchcock has been Edmonton’s coach for 21 games, Matt Benning has played in 19. His even strength (12:55) and PK (1:23) and PP (0:40) time with Hitchcock are similar to the McLellan usage earlier in the year (12:21, 1:29, 0:29). I think the Oilers are sold on Caleb Jones and that means there’s no room for Kevin Gravel and one other player. I think it’s Benning. I’m a fan.
  • Zack Kassian. Oilers have a large number of big forwards who play a gritty game, and badly need some offense. We might see Peter Chiarelli deal Kassian for a player who can score more goals.

WHAT ARE THEY LOOKING FOR?

The goaltending is just slightly below average (.907, hockey-reference says average is .909) and surely the defense has been addressed. I’ll list a scoring winger who can play inside the top 6F, and a RH center who allows Khaira to play over on LW for the remainder of the campaign. Maybe a fourth line player with a little more pop than Kassian. Three trades? I expect it’s possible.

ROOKIES 2018-19

One of the things I pay close attention to in the second half of every season is how many young players are emerging in new, important roles.

Among rookies, Caleb Jones is the big story. He’s 10, 1-3-4 and averaging 19 minutes a game. A major positive arrow from the department of youth. Kailer Yamamoto’s actual injury is unclear (I heard he jammed his wrist but one hears a lot of things in this town about the Oilers) and his return is an absolute mystery. He is 1-1-2 in 13 games.

Evan Bouchard showed he had terrific talent and things to work on, we’ll see him late next summer and then in training camp. Cooper Marody, Joe Gambardella and Patrick Russell made their NHL debut in the first half, jury out on their futures in the big league.

One player who may be quietly finding traction under new coach Ken Hitchcock: Jesse Puljujarvi. At 5-on-5 since Hitch took over, he is 2-3-5 in 237 minutes (5-on-5 per 60 scoring: 1.26) and his goal differential under the new coach (9-13 40.9 percent) is slightly up from the McLellan era (2-6 33.3 percent). It isn’t much but it’s a pulse, and the big Finn is getting 12 minutes a night consistently. This is a massive win in the making.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

383 Responses to "Game 43 2018-19: Oilers at Sharks"

Newer Comments »
  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    As I posted yesterday, I can’t imagine management moving that first round pick for anything short of a “real hockey trade”, that is, not a rental.

    I’m all about some patience (i.e. letting the anchor contracts run out in the next two years (Lucic excepted) combined with bearing fruits of drafting/development and seeing prospect graduation providing value ELC contracts. With smart moves, I believe the cap issues can be mitigated within a few years and substantial roster improvements made.

    Trading the first round pick can only be done in conjunction with a real hole being filled for a youngish player with term – of course, in order to acquire such a player at this time, additional cap needs to be disposed of which makes this a real tough deal to make.

    ——————————————

    I see no sense in trading Puljujarvi at this point as his trade value likely under-represents his likely value on the ice in the next few years. Sure, I guess there is a chance he never pops at all beyind Yakupov or PRV levels but I still believe he’ll be at least a middle 6 winger and likely a true top 6 winger shortly.

    ————————————–

    Khaira makes the league minimum for the rest of this year and will likely remain quite cheap on his next contract (likely less than $2M per for 2-3 years) – that alone has value and I don’t see trade of Khaira being a good thing.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Western Conference Playoff Standings using Points Percentage expressed at points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Pacific
    CGY 14
    SJS 11
    VGK 11

    Central
    WPG 13
    NSH 11
    COL 6

    Wildcard
    DAL 5
    MIN 4

    Out of playoffs
    ANA 2
    EDM 1
    VAN -1
    STL -2
    ARI -3
    CHI -6
    LAK -7

    Pacific COL/DAL/MIN/STL games today:

    MIN at BOS (BOS -170)
    DAL at STL (STL -115)
    COL at WPG (WPG -160)
    NYR at VGK (VGK -275)
    EDM at SJS (SJS -220)

    SJS -220 even having played last night? Yeesh.

    GOILERS!

    *claplclap*

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kassian for Dzingel?

    Is that the framework of a deal?

    Would Ottawa have any interest in Kassian with the extra year of term?

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sharks are on the back-end of back to backs as they played LA at home last night (and won 3-1).

    Martin Jones started last night so I would guess we see Aaron Dell tonight.

    Neither goalie has been very good this year but the Sharks are scoring alot of goals right now and have been very good at home.

    Oilers need to find a way to get a point out of this game – two would be fantastic.

  5. GBandQ says:

    Does Chia take a run at bringing back Maroon? Straight up for Kassian?

  6. jtblack says:

    EDM played
    L.A. (Worst team in League) – LOSS
    ANA(Worst Losing streak in League) – WIN
    S.J. (Playing B2B) – ????

    Let’s Go Oilers!!

  7. jtblack says:

    GBandQ:
    Does Chia take a run at bringing back Maroon? Straight up for Kassian?

    IMO the Big Rig’s Career has sailed …. Buyer beware

  8. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    There is a path to the playoffs here (unbelievably), but there is no more room for slumps. I don’t see a significant trade coming. Nothing on the roster that really has value unless you are trading from the core. And the cap situation doesn’t let you package picks/prospects for anything valuable. It really is on the guys we have to drag this thing to the finish line and hope it’s good enough for a wildcard spot. But the path is there.

  9. Paulie says:

    Oilers in 2015: 17-23-3, 37 points; goal differential -23 Klefbom staph infection, 30 GP all season
    Oilers in 2016: 21-15-7, 49 points; goal differential +3 Kelfbom career year (so far), 82 GP
    Oilers in 2017: 18-22-3, 39 points; goal differential -24 Kelfbom inured shoulder, 66 GP
    Oilers in 2018: 20-19-3, 43 points; goal differential -6 Klefbom broken fingers, 31 GP so far

  10. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Western Conference Playoff Standings using Points Percentage expressed at points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Pacific
    CGY 14
    SJS 11
    VGK 11

    Central
    WPG 13
    NSH 11
    COL 6

    Wildcard
    DAL 5
    MIN 4

    Out of playoffs
    ANA 2
    EDM 1
    VAN -1
    STL -2
    ARI -3
    CHI -6
    LAK -7

    Pacific COL/DAL/MIN/STL games today:

    MIN at BOS (BOS -170)
    DAL at STL (STL -115)
    COL at WPG (WPG -160)
    NYR at VGK (VGK -275)
    EDM at SJS (SJS -220)

    SJS -220 even having played last night?Yeesh.

    GOILERS!

    *claplclap*

    I have made a Formal Prayer to the Hockey Gods.

    MIN DAL & COL LOSSES.

    GOD BLESS ** Oh and Heavenly Father, We will require an Oilers WIN also.

    🙏

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Paulie:
    Oilers in 2015: 17-23-3, 37 points; goal differential -23 Klefbom staph infection, 30 GP all season
    Oilers in 2016: 21-15-7, 49 points; goal differential +3Kelfbom career year (so far), 82 GP
    Oilers in 2017: 18-22-3, 39 points; goal differential -24 Kelfbom inured shoulder, 66 GP
    Oilers in 2018: 20-19-3, 43 points; goal differential -6 Klefbom broken fingers, 31 GP so far

    We would also accept:

    Oilers in 2015: 17-23-3, 37 points; goal differential -23 – Sekera played 1sts with Rookie Nurse and Fayne and only 30gp of Klefbom to help
    Oilers in 2016: 21-15-7, 49 points; goal differential +3Kelfbom career year (so far), 82 GP – Sekera healthy until game 6 of Pacific Finals, Klefbom Healthy all year
    Oilers in 2017: 18-22-3, 39 points; goal differential -24 No Sekera, only 66gp Klefbom
    Oilers in 2018: 20-19-3, 43 points; goal differential -6 No Sekera, only 31gp Klefbom so far

  12. jtblack says:

    Paulie:
    Oilers in 2015: 17-23-3, 37 points; goal differential -23 Klefbom staph infection, 30 GP all season
    Oilers in 2016: 21-15-7, 49 points; goal differential +3Kelfbom career year (so far), 82 GP
    Oilers in 2017: 18-22-3, 39 points; goal differential -24 Kelfbom inured shoulder, 66 GP
    Oilers in 2018: 20-19-3, 43 points; goal differential -6 Klefbom broken fingers, 31 GP so far

    Matters for sure.

    ADD:
    2016/17 – Sekera Best Overall D Man
    2017/18 – Sek plays 20 games and is Hot Trash
    2018/19 – Sek may not play

    PC has clearly compromised this roster, that’s a fact.

    BUT not many teams can lose their #1 (Sekera) D man and their #2 (Oscar) D man and have success. The loss of those 2 just puts an Enormous burden on Larsson & Nurse …. AND forces all the other D to play too high up in the order.

    Probably half a miracle Edm is still in the race …

  13. jtblack says:

    Guess WG and I were thinking the same thing 😄

  14. Jordan says:

    Paulie:
    Oilers in 2015: 17-23-3, 37 points; goal differential -23 Klefbom staph infection, 30 GP all season
    Oilers in 2016: 21-15-7, 49 points; goal differential +3Kelfbom career year (so far), 82 GP
    Oilers in 2017: 18-22-3, 39 points; goal differential -24 Kelfbom inured shoulder, 66 GP
    Oilers in 2018: 20-19-3, 43 points; goal differential -6 Klefbom broken fingers, 31 GP so far

    I think more than anything, this speaks to the team needs.

    The Oilers need high end players to push down the rest of the players into roles they can succeed in.

    Since Regi’s injury, Klefbom has been the Oilers best D-man. Before that, it was a competition between both men.

    Now, without both of them, all the other players are playing over their heads and trying to do too much, or reestablish their baseline level of play to meet the more demanding level of competition.

    The same thing is happening with the all forwards not named Connor, Leon, or Ryan. No one else has established they are a top 6 forward, yet 3 of them are playing in the top 6, none are clearly succeeding at it (but Khaira’s getting damn close, when he plays with established top 6 players).

    What this team needs is 2 more top 6 forwards.

    They don’t need any bottom 6 forwards. A 3RC is a “would be nice”, but considering they just traded theres for a scoring winger who can’t score… bringing another one in seems asinine. Is there a Meme here somewhere?

    Mark Stone is target #1, and if makes a lot of sense to me to bring Duchene over at the same time. I’ve written at length about this before, and what I would see Ottawa both wanting to take back and needing to take back in terms of Salary.

    I would be quite happy dealing a lot of prospects and picks in this deal, if the players will agree to signing an extension before the trade happens, or making a lot of the picks conditional upon them signing an extension.

    Those players would push the players down who need to be down and give us the scoring depth we so clearly lack right now.

    If the Oilers are fishing in shallower water than top 6 forwards, it won’t matter who’s brought in – the issue will still be we don’t have enough good players to ice a playoff-competitive team.

  15. DBO says:

    Maroon can play with Connor, has size Chia and Hitch like and will come cheap. Seems like an easy top 6 fit for us.

    D is set, based on crappy moves he has already made. Goalie won’t change.

    Funny how Strome would be a great pickup for us right now. A RH 3rd line centre with some offense who can PK. Man that may be Chia’s worst move

  16. rbjork says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Is there anyone that believes it will be a good trade?

  17. godot10 says:

    The Oilers should not trade the 1st round pick. It just perpetuates the lack of depth further into future, and writes off more of the McDavid years.

    That 1st round draft pick could well be Dylan Cozens or Kirby Dach or Bowen Byram.

  18. giddy says:

    If I’m another team’s GM, I’d see good value in Kassian despite his recent lackluster results. Fast, mean, can play a rugged game, and really plays the playoff hockey style well. Good depth if not anything else for the bottom six. My guess? Next year is a contract year for him, and he’ll be 28 so it’s likely going to be the last contract he receives in the NHL, so he’s going to start playing his ass off.

    I’d love to see a study on guys who play that sort of mean/rough/”edge” game like Lucic, Kassian, etc. and how their performance is before and after receiving decent money, long(ish) term contracts. If you’re the type who plays the type of game where you dole out a ton of punishment, but also take fair bit yourself, are you going to tone it down a bit once you secure a big contract? Probably.

  19. jtblack says:

    Jordan,

    How do you reason Edm can fit Stone & Duchene under the Cap.?

    And pls don’t suggest Ottawa will take Lucic & Russell.

  20. godot10 says:

    DBO:
    Maroon can play with Connor, has size Chia and Hitch like and will come cheap. Seems like an easy top 6 fit for us.

    D is set, based on crappy moves he has already made. Goalie won’t change.

    Funny how Strome would be a great pickup for us right now. A RH 3rd line centre with some offense who can PK. Man that may be Chia’s worst move

    Maroon is slow and cannot PK and is barely competent defensively.

  21. giddy says:

    rbjork:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Is there anyone that believes it will be a good trade?

    Ha! At this point, GMs are probably unwilling to trade with Chiarelli unless they’re fleecing him. Nobody wants to be the guy who is only able to craft a fair trade with him when robbing him blind is par for the course.

  22. jtblack says:

    giddy,

    “f you’re the type who plays the type of game where you dole out a ton of punishment, but also take fair bit yourself, are you going to tone it down a bit once you secure a big contract? Probably.”

    ————–

    Tom wilson just got Huge $$$$. If anything, he has ramped it up.

    I think Mean, Tough players generally tone it down based on Age more than anything.

    When they break in they are trying to do everything to stay in the League and make a name for themselves.

    Once they realize they are a secure NHL player they usually round out their game and score a bit and fight / hit less. Probably have their most productive years.

    Then towards the end they play a safer game. Pick their spots. realize they are not 21 anymore. And by that point very few players want to mess with them.

    Then BAM, out of the League

  23. hags9k says:

    If the Oilers are to make a rash trade here, I would predict they send out Nurse. Because, y’know, 10 games of Jones has made it clear Darnell is expendable, and you can’t pay every defenseman 4 million dollars.

    Somebody needs to hide Chia’s cell phone until after the deadline.

  24. dustrock says:

    If Chia is desperate to make the playoffs, one figures you’d see the moves being made in the next couple of weeks.

    Waiting until the deadline seems foolish if he truly wants to help the team for this year.

    Of course the smarter thing is not to give up any assets this year at all but we all know that isn’t on the table.

  25. Paulie says:

    Woodguy v2.0: We would also accept:

    Oilers in 2015: 17-23-3, 37 points; goal differential -23 – Sekera played 1sts with Rookie Nurse and Fayne and only 30gp of Klefbom to help
    Oilers in 2016: 21-15-7, 49 points; goal differential +3Kelfbom career year (so far), 82 GP – Sekera healthy until game 6 of Pacific Finals, Klefbom Healthy all year
    Oilers in 2017: 18-22-3, 39 points; goal differential -24 No Sekera, only 66gp Klefbom
    Oilers in 2018: 20-19-3, 43 points; goal differential -6 No Sekera, only 31gp Klefbom so far

    Yes sir. LT indicates elsewhere (Athletic or here, I can’t remember) that Chia had a strong off-season with the Chiasson and Mikko pickups. To this I would add that he has not (yet) traded Oscar and Nuge. If we hold onto them, the 1st, JJ, and JP, we might be cooking with gas in a couple of years.

  26. Paulie says:

    jtblack: Matters for sure.

    ADD:
    2016/17 – Sekera Best Overall D Man
    2017/18 – Sek plays 20 games and is Hot Trash
    2018/19 – Sek may not play

    PC has clearly compromised this roster, that’s a fact.

    BUT not many teams can lose their #1 (Sekera) D man and their #2 (Oscar) D man and have success.The loss of those 2 just puts an Enormous burden on Larsson & Nurse …. AND forces all the other D to play too high up in the order.

    Probably half a miracle Edm is still in the race …

    +1000

  27. Dicky94 says:

    I can’t see any big name forwards coming in before the deadline. Cap situation has made it almost impossible. No team would take any of our bad contracts back and we can’t afford to be giving assets away at this time. So ya, I’m not holding my breath for any significant impact trade between now and the deadline. Cheering like hell for the team we have though! Big game tonight! LETS GO OILERS!!!

  28. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Continuing something from last thread:

    Jethro Tull: Thanks for replying.I wonder if there’s a magic number or point where scoring D men are actually detrimental to overall team scoring?

    There’s no magic number you just have to weight the player’s impact on his team mates.

    When it comes to valuing Dmen I like to look at a team’s Centers and their goal share (over multiple seasons) with the various Dmen on the roster and see who is adding value.

    You need to determine what type of minutes the Dman is playing as QoC effects scoring rates

    Then you take the Dman in question, find a “main stay” on the other 2 pairs and then compare how each Center does with each pair.

    Quick example:

    Faulk in CAR

    Plays 2nd pair, rarely plays with Pesce who is 1st pair, or TVR who is 3rd pair.

    So take each C with each Dman and see what the difference are.

    Data is combined 16/17-17/18 and this season.

    Staal’s on ice GF% with each Dman
    Pesce 50%
    Faulk 44%
    TVR 33%

    Staal’s on ice GF/60 with each Dman
    Pesce 2.93
    Faulk 2.16
    TVR 1.46

    Staal’s on ice GA/60 with each Dman
    Pesce 2.93
    Faulk 2.70
    TVR 2.92

    Staal’s own 5v5 pts/60 with each Dman
    Pesce 2.04
    Faulk 1.35
    TVR 0.94

    Each Dman’s own 5v5 pts/60 with Staal
    Pesce 0.64
    Faulk 0.61
    TVR 0.37

    So we see that “offensive Dman Faulk” is actually a bit of drag on GF% and GF/60 while getting similar amount of points as Pesce.

    The surprising thing is the GA/60 is down a bit under Faulk. I’d need to see WoodWOWY to see if its QoC related. Its not down a ton, but its down.

    Then you do the same thing for every C on CAR to get a feel for Faulk’s overall impact on the centers (proxy for the lines) that he plays with.

    The impact on Staal over the last 3 years is actually negative in regards to “how much the team scores” so what are Faulk’s points actually doing for the team?

    Answer: not much.

    Addendum: This is why I like to look at RelTGF% over large samples as a jumping off point for player evaluation as its basically this, but all the work is already done.

    If still like to drill down and look at Dmen with each C and with their partners to get a better feel for what is going on.

  29. tileguy says:

    We have 2 UFA goalies playing at about the same level. Both will need about $4M+ to be signed, so one has to go. If I was a gambling man, and I am, I move Talbot for pick(s) and use that cap space for a goal scorer. If Miko shits the bed, well there is your cheap backup.
    **and remember what happen last time Chia waited to til the deadline with a valuable UFA**

  30. JimmyV1965 says:

    giddy: Ha! At this point, GMs are probably unwilling to trade with Chiarelli unless they’re fleecing him. Nobody wants to be the guy who is only able to craft a fair trade with him when robbing him blind is par for the course.

    It doesn’t matter what happens to this team, Chia has to go. I’ve been on the fence for a long time with this guy basically because he’s drafted well, but his in-season moves have been horrific this year. If I’m a GM making a trade with Chia, there’s no way I don’t start with a very lowball offer. Why would any GM try to make a fair trade with someone you know will overpay?

  31. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Looks like Pesce is “Doing A Lot”

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Looks like Pesce is “Doing A Lot”

    *nods so hard I get whiplash*

  33. hunter1909 says:

    Friendly advice: Don’t look at the Western Conference Standings. Does anyone remember that scene in Jaws when the yokel get chased by the shark while his buddies yell “don’t look” I just did and combined with the improved Sharks play of late Hitchcock’s Heroes have their work cut out tonight.

    On a cinematic note, let’s say if the Oilers manage at least 1 point(the Bettman gold standard for mediocre teams) we can assume the aforementioned yokel did, indeed, make the pier tonight.

  34. hunter1909 says:

    giddy: Ha! At this point, GMs are probably unwilling to trade with Chiarelli unless they’re fleecing him. Nobody wants to be the guy who is only able to craft a fair trade with him when robbing him blind is par for the course.

    Truth +1

  35. hags9k says:

    Woodguy v2.0: *nods so hard I get whiplash*

    Get’s me wondering. Do the Sharks still come out to Seek and Destroy?

  36. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: *nods so hard I get whiplash*

    How much of that is Slavin though?

  37. Woogie63 says:

    Isn’t getting Klefbom, Sekera and Yamamoto back and playing equivalent to a trade?

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Russell
    Sekera-Jones
    Benning

    Looks pretty solid to me

  38. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The surprising thing is the GA/60 is down a bit under Faulk. I’d need to see WoodWOWY to see if its QoC related. Its not down a ton, but its down.

    He spends about 90% of his time with de Haan.

  39. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: He spends about 90% of his time with de Haan.

    My data is from 16-17 until today so there is 2 seasons of no De Haan on the roster in there.

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Faulk in CAR

    Plays 2nd pair, rarely plays with Pesce who is 1st pair, or TVR who is 3rd pair.

    So take each C with each Dman and see what the difference are.

    Slight problem with these numbers: TVR’s most common partner this year is Pesce… and I don’t think that’s been as 1st pairing.

  41. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: How much of that is Slavin though?

    Don’t know.

    We have this info from the same 3 seasons:

    Player 1 Player 2 TOI
    Brett Pesce Jaccob Slavin 2128.5
    Brett Pesce w/o Jaccob Slavin 971.6
    w/o Brett Pesce Jaccob Slavin 1599.6

    Player 1 Player 2 CF%
    Brett Pesce Jaccob Slavin 54.4
    Brett Pesce w/o Jaccob Slavin 53.3
    w/o Brett Pesce Jaccob Slavin 54.7

    Player 1 Player 2 GF%
    Brett Pesce Jaccob Slavin 53.5
    Brett Pesce w/o Jaccob Slavin 47.3
    w/o Brett Pesce Jaccob Slavin 44.4

    CF% stays close when they change partners but both see a drop in GF% away from each other.

    In this time sample their most common partners are:

    Pesce:
    Slavin 2128min
    Hanifin 391min
    TVR 217 min

    Slavin
    Pesce 2128min
    Faulk 693min
    Hamilton 427

  42. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: My data is from 16-17 until today so there is 2 seasons of no De Haan on the roster in there.

    Over that time-frame Faulk’s most common partner was Slavin (693:58 TOI)

    48.08 GF% together
    43.93 GF% Faulk away
    48.89 GF% Slavin away

    I don’t think Faulk has been carrying the ball defensively on this pairing.

    And, Faulk has played 594:58 with de Haan, so those numbers feature larger than you’d expect.

  43. Jordan says:

    jtblack:
    Jordan,

    How do you reason Edm can fit Stone & Duchene under the Cap.?

    And pls don’t suggest Ottawa will take Lucic & Russell.

    My Original proposal was around Lucic, Nurse, one of Yamamoto/Puljujarvi (both if Duchene and Stone sign could be acceptable, but not ideal), Nurse and one of our other ~2M cap hits, plus picks going both ways to even out the value.

    Lucic does cost less than his cap hit (so there would be a couple of million dollars saved by Ottawa each year), Nurse helps their appaling back end, and they get some forwards on cost controlled deals plus picks.

    It’s not a Slam Dunk deal, but it’s a reasonable one that brings in futures to Ottawa and cuts their actual costs.

    It would need Milan accepting the trade, which might happen to send him back east. It would also need the Oilers being willing to trade him, and Nurse, who has been touted a core player.

    I expected there would be 2-4 high end picks from the Oilers included as well, presuming the Oilers sign both players to extensions.

    It’s not an easy trade to make because of all the ifs, but it’s the best trade for the team over the next 4-5 seasons. #McDavidWindow

  44. BONE207 says:

    What’s this???
    LT, do you want o turn Jesse into a keeper? I didn’t think he played goal. With all his stick dropping, he could be a bigger Hasek. Twin tower Finnish keepers. I’m up for anything at this time.

  45. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Slight problem with these numbers: TVR’s most common partner this year is Pesce… and I don’t think that’s been as 1st pairing.

    3 years of data

    Look at big samples

    When he’s played with Slavin its 1st pair and is over 2000 minutes in the last 3 years.

  46. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Over that time-frame Faulk’s most common partner was Slavin (693:58 TOI)

    48.08GF% together
    43.93GF% Faulk away
    48.89GF% Slavin away

    I don’t think Faulk has been carrying the ball defensively on this pairing.

    And, Faulk has played 594:58 with de Haan, so those numbers feature larger than you’d expect.

    Since Faulk had 5 Dpartners in this sample that are very close to each other in terms of total TOI with Faulk you should break them all out and not just do a WOWY with one.

    Hainsey is only 5 minutes less than Slavin

    With TOI With
    Jaccob Slavin 694.0
    Ron Hainsey 688.7
    Calvin de Haan 595.0
    Noah Hanifin 556.7
    Haydn Fleury 478.7

    With GF% With
    Jaccob Slavin 48.1
    Ron Hainsey 35.7
    Calvin de Haan 51.3
    Noah Hanifin 46.5
    Haydn Fleury 44.1

  47. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I do this too (also good to look at swings in individual points % since they added it at NST) but one thing that I’ve been thinking about is-

    What if the Norris-reputation vampiric-appearing defencemen are getting the harder half of their top centres’ minutes?

    I’m talking about that Dellow thing, like the GF/GA/60 during DZ; NZ; or even particular OTF shifts where all of the oppo forwards, friendly forwards, and the Dman plus his partner are coming on for someone else.

    If you get those shifts, then eventually move the puck up the ice after a no-event struggle (just neutral zone back and forth, un-retrieved dump-ins, the type of thing that puts regular hockey fans to sleep) and you’ve eventually got your team set up in the offensive zone and your team’s D change on the fly while the forwards are keeping the puck deep (you’re going to the bench now, your name is Letang and you’re changing for Schultz).

    Surely the baseline for possession and goal metrics are less favourable for the type of shift you just had to take, and the baseline for possession and goal metrics are more favourable for the type of shift your replacement just had to take, but nobody can really pick that up using what you (and I) are using to evaluate.

    I’ll write it as an event summary in case that’s hard to read (it probably is):

    (You’re Letang)

    > Crosby’s line just got hemmed in, broke out only to dump the puck to the opposition face-off dots and change

    > The Penguins wholesale change (you’re coming on with Malkin), the opposition D go to collect the puck and try to make a fast break to catch you changing

    > You’re the first guy on and skate long to the puck carrier, they dump-in and you and your partner recover and break out

    > Your forwards dump the puck in; unrecovered

    > Their forwards dump the puck in; you recover, make a pass out and into their zone

    > You and your partner change b/c you’ve already had to skate for two recoveries

    > Schultz pairing comes in while the other team is hemmed in and they get a bunch of shots on goal and score on the other team’s unit that you tired out and did all the puck-moving to trap them

    It sounds super-specific and couldn’t possibly make that much of a difference, but the fact that so many 3rd pairing guys have good results against strong opposition (and what Dellow showed in his piece) kind of begs the question of how many situations are like this. (Like starting in the DZ, spending awhile defusing a cycle and then having to get off the ice as soon as the situation’s less dangerous. Or, during a your-DZ-side NZ faceoff the opposite team does the set play that everyone does and you end up repeatedly retrieving until your forwards get it right in the NZ; a lot of shift types kind of suck)

    I think D changes are unfair in general, especially compared to forward changes.

    With forwards, you earn your shift type more often, and the only guys who really get fucked over are FOGO guys, and similar old slow veterans that come on with top-six units to take extra DZ faceoffs like Letestu and Brodziak have in the past few years for Edmonton (poor bastards).

    Whereas with Dman, you virtually never get to change out of a bad situation and you’re almost always changing out of a good one that you somewhat contributed to creating.

  48. McNuge93 says:

    Woogie63:
    Isn’t getting Klefbom, Sekera and Yamamoto back and playingequivalent to a trade?

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Russell
    Sekera-Jones
    Benning

    Looks pretty solid to me

    I’d only count Klefbom. Sekera is a huge question mark and it may be too late anyway by the time he’s back. Yam should be in the AHL. GEtting back to Sek is he still practicing with team full contact?

  49. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Over that time-frame Faulk’s most common partner was Slavin (693:58 TOI)

    48.08GF% together
    43.93GF% Faulk away
    48.89GF% Slavin away

    I don’t think Faulk has been carrying the ball defensively on this pairing.

    And, Faulk has played 594:58 with de Haan, so those numbers feature larger than you’d expect.

    The next thing to do is look at Faulk with all 5 partners and Staal to see if he’s better than the overall number and if it was Hainsey doing most of the damage.

    Will do when I get back to the office

  50. Dicky94 says:

    Question? If the Oilers traded Lucic and retained half his salary. Can the Oilers still buy out the remaining 3 million in the summer? Or how does that work? Possibly stupid question.

  51. McSorley33 says:

    When you look at a roster of wingers and a couple of them are still aiming for
    their first even strength goal of the year – should that team be a buyer or a
    seller at the deadline?

    Yes, I get the teams competing for the last Wild card spot in the West are hot garbage.

    What does being the best of hot garbage do?

    Minnesota is holding the last wild card spot they are 4-5-1 in the last 10 with some
    key injuries:

    Last 10 games:

    Anaheim: 2-6-2
    Vancouver 5-5
    Edmonton 3-7

    Remember when McTavish traded David Perron for Pittsburgh’s 1st round pick at the 2015 draft?

    We need more of that…we need more picks and prospects.

  52. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde,

    Is there IPP in the WOWY too?

    Agreed on shift type and when (if ever) puckiq launches we aim to have all shift types including OTF.

    From what I’ve gleaned from Tyler’s work is that the 3rd pairing Dmen area far more sheltered than we though vis a vis TOI with the top 6.

    I think it’s much less so for top 4 Dmen, but I’d bet there are exceptions.

    When I did my Larsson thing after the Hall trade I found that he and Greene were, by far, the most buried pair in terms of zone starts in the leauge and that matters.

    Good stuff

  53. Jethro Tull says:

    McSorley33: Remember when McTavish traded David Perron for Pittsburgh’s 1st round pick at the 2015 draft?

    Remember when…….

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005%E2%80%9306_Edmonton_Oilers_season

  54. slopitch says:

    Im down for any trade that the oilers win. Just dont trust the gm. Life as an oilers fan ha!

    Id move JP in a package for an impact winger (Hall or Stone i dont think for duchene). Suspect its not available and the oilers should shop around thr edges and move salary out for next year. Benning, Manning and Kassian would be the players id move. Obv preferring Manning out. Not sure moving Lucic is possible.

    Go oilers!

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    I didn’t realize that Vlasic has missed the last two games with an injury – here is hoping that he isn’t able to play tonight as he is truly a wonderful defensive d-man and has had success shutting down McDavid in the past.

  56. jtblack says:

    Jordan: My Original proposal was around Lucic, Nurse, one of Yamamoto/Puljujarvi (both if Duchene and Stone sign could be acceptable, but not ideal), Nurse and one of our other ~2M cap hits, plus picks going both ways to even out the value.

    Lucic does cost less than his cap hit (so there would be a couple of million dollars saved by Ottawa each year), Nurse helps their appaling back end, and they get some forwards on cost controlled deals plus picks.

    It’s not a Slam Dunk deal, but it’s a reasonable one that brings in futures to Ottawa and cuts their actual costs.

    It would need Milan accepting the trade, which might happen to send him back east.It would also need the Oilers being willing to trade him, and Nurse, who has been touted a core player.

    I expected there would be 2-4 high end picks from the Oilers included as well, presuming the Oilers sign both players to extensions.

    It’s not an easy trade to make because of all the ifs, but it’s the best trade for the team over the next 4-5 seasons.#McDavidWindow

    So I am clear. Let’s say all the “what ifs” do occur.

    IN:
    STONE
    DUCHENE

    OUT:
    LUCIC
    NURSE
    YAMAMOTO
    JP
    2019 1ST
    2020 2ND
    2021 2ND

    Is that something close to what you are proposing?

  57. OilSafety says:

    With regards to the recent Hamilton chatter, he problem is that he will be in demand. Someone is going to pay full price for him.
    Dont get me wrong, I want him on the Oilers, but with the potential baggage I wouldnt want to pay full price.

    The reality is Carolina wants top 6 scoring, and that is the last thing we have to offer. We cant send Nuge, we need him more than anyone else in the league either as a winger or as C depth in case of injury. JP will be a player, but isnt yet, I doubt Carolina would settle on him when he’s not contributing yet, and again, we need a big fast scoring winger now and in the future.

    No surprise to anyone here, but the cupboards are bare in Edmonton. Whats left to trade… Yammamoto? Pics?

    Perfect world, we find a third team to bring in who needs futures and has an extra top 6 forward Carolina wants. Not very likely, but I think Hamilton next to Nurse as a second pair is perfect.
    what the hell, maybe they really want Luc, right? It could happen…….

    Im going to go fill up my coffee and baileys.

  58. jtblack says:

    McSorley33,

    “Remember when McTavish traded David Perron for Pittsburgh’s 1st round pick at the 2015 draft?”

    Remember when PC took that 2015 1st Rounder and turned it into dust? 🙁

  59. Dicky94 says:

    OilSafety,

    I can see him going to Toronto. The media there has the car warming up ready to run Nylander out.

  60. McSorley33 says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Great year ….Steve Staios had 8 goals and 20 assists. He was 10th in
    scoring on that team.

    Steve Staios meet the 2018/19 Oiler forwards:

    Rieder 0 goals
    Lucic 1 goal
    Khaira 2 goals
    Spooner 2 goals
    Rattie 2 goals
    Kassian 2 goals

    Hell, Jason Smith had 4 goals that year.

  61. Caller Zen says:

    Would LA be willing to deal Toffoli for the right price? One more year at 4.6m cap hit, but I can see him score a lot of goals next year on McDavid’s wing. I’m just not sure how to make the money work for the Oilers… maybe Sekera lifts his NMC and returns to sunny California?

  62. jtblack says:

    Caller Zen:
    Would LA be willing to deal Toffoli for the right price? One more year at 4.6m cap hit, but I can see him score a lot of goals next year on McDavid’s wing. I’m just not sure how to make the money work for the Oilers… maybe Sekera lifts his NMC and returns to sunny California?

    So you are Suggesting L.A. would be on board trading Toffoli for Sekera?

  63. DBO says:

    godot10,

    He does not need to PK. Has shown chemistry with McDavid. Will be motivated since he signed a one year small deal this year and needs a payday. He may be slow, but he would be an upgrade on most of our wingers.

  64. Caller Zen says:

    jtblack: So you are Suggesting L.A. would be on board trading Toffoli for Sekera?

    Not exactly – I’m sure a high pick would be needed for the Kings rebuild and also a prospect. But since Toffoli has 16 points in 43 games, maybe the team is willing to part with him as a seller at the deadline. If Sekera is not an option, who do the Oilers move to shed some salary?

  65. New Improved Darkness says:

    giddy:
    Nobody wants to be the guy who is only able to craft a fair trade with him when robbing him blind is par for the course.

    This is a fallacy of binary categories. The middle door is robbing him half blind.

    The only way this works is if Chia is completely insensate to the difference between robbed blind and robbed half blind, and this is considered an established fact of universal, common knowledge.

    In this model, the correct strategy is for all 30 GMs to pitch a robbed-blind proposal and then just sit back and wait to find out who wins the lottery ball (which won’t have anything at all to do with skill or value, because Chia is 100% bereft in those capacities).

    Mitigating against this view is that Chia seems to know the difference between being robbed blind and robbed blind and pantsless, which is why we still have Connor McDavid. If there’s a screaming deal to be had by winning the Chia lottery ball, you’d think every greedy, scheming GM in the league would be covertly trying to sweeten their offer (with not very much) in order to gain a competitive edge in lottery odds; if all you have to do to enhance your proposal above the herd’s is throw in an 8th round selection, you’d be a fool not to.

    So your original offer was a questionable asset, and your upgraded offer is questionable asset, plus an eighth round selection. Does this increase your chances of winning the Chia lottery ball?

    You can model it in signalling theory by assuming that Chia’s judgement of the value of the questionable asset is not determined by his own judgement, but by associated context outside of his control. He might reason, “well, if this guy is so desperate to throw in an 8th, his asset must be a questionable asset, so he’s now off my xmas list”.

    In which case sweetening the deal is a negative gradient.

    But if that’s a negative gradient, what about the other side? Note how it now appears that your chance of being selected is proportional to how naked and brazen and ludicrous and firm the original proposal.

    The logical conclusion of this is to offer a bag of pucks (not even a player) for RNH. But apparently Chia is not so insensate as to trade RNH for a bag of pucks, so there’s a limit to how naked and ridiculous you can go before sabotaging yourself.

    What is the precise gradient that governs that limit to how much you can fleece Chia without damaging your lottery ball?

    30-odd GMs in the league lose sleep over exactly this proposition. Or so this narrative goes when fully examined.

    In the case of Lucic, the actual gradient went like this: sure, he plays a hard, physical game, and he’s at a certain age now, but I know his wife, and his wife mixes him a healthy, green smoothie every morning so thick with spinach you could practically stand on it. (Something akin to this reasoning process was actually reported.)

    This also happened in the Lowe/MacT era. “Sure, you need rounded, versatile players, but also my kingdom for a pure shooter.”

    It’s a common human failing. When you feel extremely cornered in life because none of the player agents would return your phone calls—”no cucumbers this morning, sir, I went down twice, not even for ready money”—there’s a tendency to buy into weird, countervailing narratives that break the gridlock. And you wind up with Lupul or Lucic.

    Somehow Chia convinced himself that Lucic was previously owned by a grandmother who only drove it to church on Sundays.

    After the Tambi era, word of the day was “bold”.

    Unfortunately, it’s not that easy to rain dance “bold” into existence, and if the rain dance fails, there’s a nearby exit: bald. As in falling for a bald fiction about a Sunday morning grocery-getter entirely powered by spinach smoothies.

    Salesman: That horrible back-firing sound? Not to worry. It’s just farting out another Leprechaun bearing a pot of gold.

    Shrewd: Hey, wait just a second here—how does the Leprechaun get through the catalytic converter?

    Salesman: Well, okay, so there is this one little thing, which explains my low, low price. One day, this grandmother—who was a 24/7 homebody as aforementioned (except on Sunday mornings)—get this—she borrows a cutting torch from her nephew’s chopbody shop and refitted the entire exhaust system with straight pipes. So if ever there was a concern about Leprechauns gumming themselves up in the catalytic converter, you have nothing to fear.

    Shrewd: But … they still stick in the pipes and make a horrible popping sound?

    Salesman: Sounds like—victory.

    Shrewd: Woof—what’s that smell? Fetid spanakopita?

    Salesman: You must mean “feta”. A common mistake. Quite the delicacy, actually: a warm, soft, pastry pie of eternal goodness fried to perfection, leavened with shiny, ductile coin. You know, I’d almost buy this car myself, but I had a small hiccup with the old ticker last month, and the wife has absolutely forbidden me to go anywhere near such a succulent dish.

    Shrewd: And so now you’re blowing this out the door, at a low, low price?

    Salesman: Well, honestly, it pains me, but I can hardly keep this here on the lot for a whole ‘nother day—my knees are practically knocking together already from pure temptation. If I don’t blow this off the lot in the next hour, I’m a dead man walking. Even at this low, low price, you’d be doing me an eternal favour, to tell you the truth.

    Shrewd: Well, that’s one strange old biddy—grandmothers seem to get weirder every day, you just don’t know until you start to hear all the quiet stories—and you know what, my wife is also on my case about my eating habits, so I feel your pain.

    Salesman: Deal?

    Shrewd: Done.

    Salesman: You’re a real trooper. Now let’s hustle on up to the office, complete the paperwork, and get this off the lot. [Covers eyes demurely to better conceal facial expression.] I simply can’t bear to take one more look—both of my knees would almost explode.

    Shrewd: Funny you should say that. I was talking to a guy just yesterday morning—forget his name, but he shows up on call display as “Canes”. Just wait until you hear the story about his grandmother, it’s a real doozy.

    Salesman: You don’t say.

    Shrewd: And his knees are even worse than yours.

    Salesman: Of course! We all got a two-season cup of coffee in the NFL’s trenches of doom.

  66. GMB3 says:

    Miroslav Svoboda on unconditional waivers for the purpose of terminating his contract

  67. Primetime says:

    Dicky94:
    OilSafety,

    I can see him going to Toronto. The media there has the car warming up ready to run Nylander out.

    I was reading a few reports about the availability of Hamilton, and some insiders reported the only reason he is being mentioned is because everyone is calling and only asking for Pesce. That the Canes themselves are floating Hamilton to see if they can get something close for Hamilton and keep Pesce.

    The Leafs have done exactly what the Oilers should have…draft BPA/Talent even if it meant overloading a position (ie. scoring forward) but then using it as leverage to fill the positions they need/want. My guess would be their offer for Hamilton will be “nothing”. If the Canes want Nylander, its Pesce or bust. The Canes will soon see they cannot get a scoring winger nearly as good as little Willie for Hamilton and will have to make a choice. The Leafs will not be forced into a deal they don’t truly want.

  68. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Is there IPP in the WOWY too?

    No, I wish, but being able to see the pecking order of IPP of a team’s regular Dmen means one less step of manually finding out where guys are getting their counting totals

    Woodguy v2.0:
    When I did my Larsson thing after the Hall trade I found that he and Greene were, by far, the most buried pair in terms of zone starts in the leauge and that matters.

    I remember that. NJ did the same-ish thing to Santini later too before eventually chilling out on the hard-burying

    Woodguy v2.0:
    From what I’ve gleaned from Tyler’s work is that the 3rd pairing Dmen area far more sheltered than we though vis a vis TOI with the top 6.
    I think it’s much less so for top 4 Dmen, but I’d bet there are exceptions.

    I’m just thinking that if say a top-4 guy and a third pairing guy both have the same GF/60 with a top-six centre but the top-4 guy has a higher IPP and P/60 with them, it might not be /pure/ vampirism because of the way changes function

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    No surprise but Talbot gets the start tonight.

    Martin Jones starting for San Jose and he also played last night – interesting.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Confirmed same lineup as last game except Spooner in for Joe G.

    Yamamoto is skating but not ready yet.

    Oilers at SJ:

    Khaira-McDavid-Kassian
    Lucic-RNH-Puljujarvi
    Rieder-Draisaitl-Chiasson
    Spooner-Brodziak-Rattie

    Jones-Larsson
    Nurse-Russell
    Gravel-Petrovic

    Talbot starts…Yamamoto (back on the ice), Manning, Benning, & Gambardella extras

  71. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Woodguy v2.0: The next thing to do is look at Faulk with all 5 partners and Staal to see if he’s better than the overall number and if it was Hainsey doing most of the damage.

    Will do when I get back to the office

    Here’s something interesting….despite Pesce being Faulk’s most common partner (by 5 min) since 16/17 Pesce is the partner that Faulk has the *least* TOI with 1C Staal.

    Weird.

    Check it out:

    Dmen TOI with Faulk & Staal since 16/17
    Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 TOI
    Staal Faulk Hainsey 171.5
    Staal Faulk Hanifan 128.4
    Staal Faulk de Haan 127.7
    Staal Faulk Fleury 97.7
    Staal Faulk Pesce 26.1

    So here’s the GF results with each partner. These are micro samples so the variance is probably huge.

    GF% with Faulk and Staal since 16/17 (sorted by TOI together)
    Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 GF%
    Staal Faulk Hainsey 38.5
    Staal Faulk Hanifan 40.0
    Staal Faulk de Haan 37.5
    Staal Faulk Fleury 66.7
    Staal Faulk Pesce 0.0

    GF/60 with Faulk and Staal since 16/17 (sorted by TOI together)
    Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 GF/60
    Staal Faulk Hainsey 1.75
    Staal Faulk Hanifan 2.80
    Staal Faulk de Haan 1.41
    Staal Faulk Fleury 2.46
    Staal Faulk Pesce 0.00

    Looks like the GF/60 spike when he’s with 3rd pairing Dmen and Staal which speaks to what Wilde was talking about with 3rd pair Dmen getting heavily sheltered minutes with top lines. Lots of OTF shifts when the puck is already heading to the ozone.

    and finally GA/60 with Faulk and Staal since 16/17 (sorted by TOI together)
    Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 GA/60
    Staal Faulk Hainsey 2.80
    Staal Faulk Hanifan 4.21
    Staal Faulk de Haan 2.35
    Staal Faulk Fleury 1.23
    Staal Faulk Pesce 4.60

    Fun with small samples!!!

    I don’t think its fair to say “Hainsey tanked Faulk” since Hainsey went on to win a Cup as 1st pairing Dman with PIT in 16/17 and has since played 1LD on TOR.

    TOI/gp PIT 16/17 playoffs:
    Player TOI/GP
    Brian Dumoulin 18.3
    Ron Hainsey 18.1
    Olli Maatta 17.0
    Ian Cole 15.8
    Justin Schultz 15.6
    Trevor Daley 15.5

  72. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    New Improved Darkness,

    Outstanding sir.

  73. Wilde says:

    New Improved Darkness:
    Somehow Chia convinced himself that Lucic was previously owned by a grandmother who only drove it to church on Sundays.

    hahahahaha

  74. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    New Improved Darkness,

    This also happened in the Lowe/MacT era. “Sure, you need rounded, versatile players, but also my kingdom for a pure shooter.”

    Fun fact.

    EDM’s best “GF% Star Off” in the last 12 years was the last year of MacT as head coach.

    08/09
    Hesmky on GF% 52.6%
    Hemsky off GF% 49.2%

    It was soon after that MacT and Lowe decided (and mentioned in the incredible TV series “Oil Change”) that they needed high end talent to win a Cup so after their poor start in 09/10 they “tanked” (with a maxed out payroll) and got Hall and started “Rebuild v 2.3”

    10 years later Pete would sell a kidney for 49.2% McDavid off.

    He sold much more than a kidney in pursuit of it, but……” (which won’t have anything at all to do with skill or value, because Chia is 100% bereft in those capacities). “ …and all.

  75. Wilde says:

    Wilde,

    this got me because of the unusual plainness

  76. godot10 says:

    Caller Zen: Not exactly – I’m sure a high pick would be needed for the Kings rebuild and also a prospect. But since Toffoli has 16 points in 43 games, maybe the team is willing to part with him as a seller at the deadline. If Sekera is not an option, who do the Oilers move to shed some salary?

    Toffoli is slow. HIs decline in scoring is conincident with the league getting faster. By the time McDavid is in the O-zone, Toffoli still might be at centre ice.

  77. Rube Foster says:

    Woogie63:
    Isn’t getting Klefbom, Sekera and Yamamoto back and playingequivalent to a trade?

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Russell
    Sekera-Jones
    Benning

    Looks pretty solid to me

    Yes, it would be a huge bump in the right direction getting Sekera & Klefbom back and playing at close to 100%, that will be the riddle with Sekera, how close to 100% will he be?

    The only team that might receive a playoff push from Kailer Yamamoto is the Bakersfield Condors.

    No to Yamamoto coming back and playing in the NHL this year. We have ample evidence of where Kailer is at as an NHL player, with plenty of top six minutes young Kailer’s numbers are – 22 gp 1g 4a.

    Yamamoto is clearly not an answer for the Oiler’s this season. The NHL is not a development league for 19 year olds. Let us not repeat our past mistakes. Yamamoto should be down in Bakersfield, playing big minutes in a feature role and helping the Condors make the playoffs.

  78. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Oilers at SJ:
    Khaira-McDavid-Kassian
    Lucic-RNH-Puljujarvi
    Rieder-Draisaitl-Chiasson
    Spooner-Brodziak-Rattie

    23 for 27 might happen in-game, but I really with Puljujärvi got to play away from Lucic from the start.

    LT mentioned 98’s pts/60 going further up under Hitchcock.

    My expectation for him is to hit the mark of Jaden Schwartz’s same-age season (one’s a May birthday, the other June), his first under Hitchcock. He had 1.47/60.

  79. jtblack says:

    godot10: Toffoli is slow.HIs decline in scoring is conincident with the league getting faster.By the time McDavid is in the O-zone, Toffoli still might be at centre ice.

    +1. and if Carter and / or Kopitar can’t keep zooming Tofoli along, is he really gonna become a 30 Goal guy with McD?

  80. Rube Foster says:

    jtblack:
    giddy,

    “f you’re the type who plays the type of game where you dole out a ton of punishment, but also take fair bit yourself, are you going to tone it down a bit once you secure a big contract? Probably.”

    ————–

    Tom wilson just got Huge $$$$.If anything, he has ramped it up.

    I think Mean, Tough players generally tone it down based on Age more than anything.

    When they break in they are trying to do everything to stay in the League and make a name for themselves.

    Once they realize they are a secure NHL player they usually round out their game and score a bit and fight / hit less. Probably have their most productive years.

    Then towards the end they play a safer game.Pick their spots.realize they are not 21 anymore.And by that point very few players want to mess with them.

    Then BAM, out of the League

    Would you gents be referring to John Ferguson? Perhaps player a little more current, say… David Clarkson?

    … might there be anyone else you possibly could be referring to?

  81. Ryan says:

    ArmchairGM: Over that time-frame Faulk’s most common partner was Slavin (693:58 TOI)

    48.08GF% together
    43.93GF% Faulk away
    48.89GF% Slavin away

    I don’t think Faulk has been carrying the ball defensively on this pairing.

    And, Faulk has played 594:58 with de Haan, so those numbers feature larger than you’d expect.

    You never miss an opportunity to cite those numbers without acknowledging that they are all skewed by the the 16-17 season or the terrible goaltending Carolina had.

    This year

    Together: 50% (20 min)
    Faulk away: 52%
    Slavin away: 37.5%

    Last two Years

    Together: 40%
    Faulk away: 47.7%
    Slavin away: 44.4%

    Last three years

    Together: 48%
    Faulk away: 44%
    Slavin away: 50%

    [16-17 Season]

    Together: 59%
    Faulk away: 38%
    Slavin away: 59%

  82. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’m hoping to see the team embrace the coach’s style this game in particular. With Vlasic out, if they can get some decent O zone time perhaps they can break down the D coverage against those offensive minded D, especially the second and third pairs.

    Run and gun is not a good idea this evening with how the Sharks can score and their experienced forwards. Drai and Nuge need to be dangerous and bring the heat against the second and third pairs.

    Go Oilers!!

  83. Profit says:

    I was gone for 2 weeks with the holiday break and such, so my watching of Oilers and blog reading was down to almost nothing. I have read a bunch of comments on Sekera, half of which basically write him off for the year and half of which have him coming back soonish.

    Has there been an actual, real, update on Sekera’s status? I know we were *expecting* him back around now and that there was apparently some whispers he wasn’t going to be ready (Stauffer?). Is he skating with the team still? I haven’t seen anything concrete.

    It would seem to me a very many things hang on whether he’s ready to go in 2 weeks or out for the year.

  84. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Interesting info from Dustin Nielson over at ON:

    This deal doesn’t make any sense to me and pretty much never will. The Hawks would have done anything to move Manning for NOTHING and yet they land a capable bottom six forward in Drake Caggiula. Adding to the misery Klefbom hasn’t even returned to the line up yet and Manning has already been healthy scratched.

    This story is actually even more ridiculous than it sounds. I do believe it’s been mentioned that Chiarelli has always had Manning on his radar but how about this little tidbit: I’ve been told by a very reliable source that at one point over the last two years Chiarelli actually had a deal in place to acquire Manning. He was ready to pull the trigger but his coaching staff told him not to do it. I don’t know what that deal was but I find it fascinating he has wanted Manning for so long and was told by his last coaching staff the player wasn’t worth picking up. Looks like they were right.

    I also snagged this quote from an NHL Scout shortly after the Manning deal was made. “I have no idea what Peter is hoping to accomplish with Manning. He’s a fringe bottom pairing d-man on his best day.”

    Link: https://oilersnation.com/2019/01/08/catching-up-brandon-manning-alex-petrovic-line-combinations-and-spengler-cup/

  85. jtblack says:

    D MAN POINTS. TALE OF 2 CITIES.

    BURNS – 47
    KARLSSON – 38

    That’s 85 Points from those 2.

    NURSE – 19
    KLEFBOM – 15
    LARSSON – 12
    RUSSELL – 8
    BENNING – 8
    JONES – 4
    WIDEMAN – 2
    GRAVEL – 2
    BOUCHARD – 1
    PETROVIC – 1
    GARRISON – 1

    That’s 73 points.

    Now is someone gonna try and convince me that Burns and Karlsson are D men Vampires? 🙂

  86. JimmyV1965 says:

    Will be an interesting game tonight. I don’t think the team has played particularly well lately, but they are 2 for 3. The Sharks have way more finishers than the teams we have played recently. This game could be another interesting measuring stick.

  87. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack: So I am clear.Let’s say all the “what ifs” do occur.

    IN:
    STONE
    DUCHENE

    OUT:
    LUCIC
    NURSE
    YAMAMOTO
    JP
    2019 1ST
    2020 2ND
    2021 2ND

    Is that something close to what you are proposing?

    Nurse, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi + 3 high picks is WAY too much to give up for rentals. I get that Lucic is a cap dump and that two of those picks are conditional, but it’s still a very bad deal for the Oilers.

    Let’s say neither Stone nor Duchene signs here, now we’ve just set back the team at least 2-3 years for 1 attempt at a playoff run – which in all honesty, isn’t going to be a long one even with those two.

  88. jtblack says:

    The Oilers have 3 players with more than 20 points.

    San Jose has 9.

    Depth. Depth I say !

  89. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Interesting info from Dustin Nielson over at ON:

    This deal doesn’t make any sense to me and pretty much never will. The Hawks would have done anything to move Manning for NOTHING and yet they land a capable bottom six forward in Drake Caggiula. Adding to the misery Klefbom hasn’t even returned to the line up yet and Manning has already been healthy scratched.


    This story is actually even more ridiculous than it sounds. I do believe it’s been mentioned that Chiarelli has always had Manning on his radar but how about this little tidbit: I’ve been told by a very reliable source that at one point over the last two years Chiarelli actually had a deal in place to acquire Manning. He was ready to pull the trigger but his coaching staff told him not to do it. I don’t know what that deal was but I find it fascinating he has wanted Manning for so long and was told by his last coaching staff the player wasn’t worth picking up. Looks like they were right.

    I also snagged this quote from an NHL Scout shortly after the Manning deal was made. “I have no idea what Peter is hoping to accomplish with Manning. He’s a fringe bottom pairing d-man on his best day.”

    Link: https://oilersnation.com/2019/01/08/catching-up-brandon-manning-alex-petrovic-line-combinations-and-spengler-cup/

    Caggiula really isn’t a capable bottom six forward.

    Chicago acquired him, arguably, because he is a much cheaper buyout than Manning.

    The only possible rationale for Chiarelli trading for Manning is if he plans to trade Benning (and Gravel) for forwards.

  90. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Toffoli is slow.HIs decline in scoring is conincident with the league getting faster.By the time McDavid is in the O-zone, Toffoli still might be at centre ice.

    I’m not buying this narrative at all. Toffoli has scored at every level he’s played. He scored 24 goals last year. I don’t think in one year he’s suddenly so slow he can’t score in this league. Joe Pavelski has 25 goals, is on pace for more than 40, and no one can mistake him for being fast. Hell, Chiasson has 17 goals and he’s not exactly a burner either. The team that trades for Toffoli will be getting a bargain.

  91. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Interesting info from Dustin Nielson over at ON:

    This deal doesn’t make any sense to me and pretty much never will. The Hawks would have done anything to move Manning for NOTHING and yet they land a capable bottom six forward in Drake Caggiula. Adding to the misery Klefbom hasn’t even returned to the line up yet and Manning has already been healthy scratched.


    This story is actually even more ridiculous than it sounds. I do believe it’s been mentioned that Chiarelli has always had Manning on his radar but how about this little tidbit: I’ve been told by a very reliable source that at one point over the last two years Chiarelli actually had a deal in place to acquire Manning. He was ready to pull the trigger but his coaching staff told him not to do it. I don’t know what that deal was but I find it fascinating he has wanted Manning for so long and was told by his last coaching staff the player wasn’t worth picking up. Looks like they were right.

    I also snagged this quote from an NHL Scout shortly after the Manning deal was made. “I have no idea what Peter is hoping to accomplish with Manning. He’s a fringe bottom pairing d-man on his best day.”

    Link: https://oilersnation.com/2019/01/08/catching-up-brandon-manning-alex-petrovic-line-combinations-and-spengler-cup/

    I love how the link has Manning, Petrovic and Spengler cup in the same sentence. Talk about self-fulfilling prophecy. Maybe even this year.

  92. ArmchairGM says:

    Ryan: You never miss an opportunity to cite those numbers without acknowledging that they are all skewed by the the 16-17 season or the terrible goaltending Carolina had.

    This year

    Together: 50% (20 min)
    Faulk away: 52%
    Slavin away: 37.5%

    Last two Years

    Together: 40%
    Faulk away: 47.7%
    Slavin away: 44.4%

    Last three years

    Together: 48%
    Faulk away: 44%
    Slavin away: 50%

    [16-17 Season]

    Together: 59%
    Faulk away: 38%
    Slavin away: 59%

    I didn’t set the timeline… and it’s the first time (to my knowledge) that I’ve ever cited these numbers before. Not sure who you are and why the personal attack, but whatever.

  93. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    New Improved Darkness,

    This also happened in the Lowe/MacT era. “Sure, you need rounded, versatile players, but also my kingdom for a pure shooter.”

    Fun fact.

    EDM’s best “GF% Star Off” in the last 12 years was the last year of MacT as head coach.

    08/09
    Hesmky on GF% 52.6%
    Hemsky off GF% 49.2%

    It was soon after that MacT and Lowe decided (and mentioned in the incredible TV series “Oil Change”) that they needed high end talent to win a Cup so after their poor start in 09/10 they “tanked” (with a maxed out payroll) and got Hall and started “Rebuild v 2.3”

    10 years later Pete would sell a kidney for 49.2% McDavid off.

    He sold much more than a kidney in pursuit of it, but……” (which won’t have anything at all to do with skill or value, because Chia is 100% bereft in those capacities). “ …and all.

    Was that with Hemsky first off the ice or last?

  94. Rube Foster says:

    LT – You sure have kicked up a great deal of “Trade Dust” today with your speculations of moves to come from our GM whose future employment it would appear is incumbent upon the Oilers making the Playoffs this year.

    I will postulate that the move we need to make is akin to the trade that saw the Oilers swap Jason Bonsignore, Bryan Marchment and Steve Kelly for Roman Hamrlik and Paul Comrie.

    Alas, the fellow that made that trade does not work here any longer…

    Given recent transactions, I shudder to think about any major move Chiarelli might make. These desperate times will only be compounded by Chiarelli’s desperate measures.

  95. knighttown says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Continuing something from last thread:

    There’s no magic number you just have to weight the player’s impact on his team mates.

    When it comes to valuing Dmen I like to look at a team’s Centers and their goal share (over multiple seasons) with the various Dmen on the roster and see who is adding value.

    You need to determine what type of minutes the Dman is playing as QoC effects scoring rates

    Then you take the Dman in question, find a “main stay” on the other 2 pairs and then compare how each Center does with each pair.

    Quick example:

    Faulk in CAR

    Plays 2nd pair, rarely plays with Pesce who is 1st pair, or TVR who is 3rd pair.

    So take each C with each Dman and see what the difference are.

    Data is combined 16/17-17/18 and this season.

    Staal’s on ice GF% with each Dman
    Pesce 50%
    Faulk 44%
    TVR 33%

    Staal’s on ice GF/60 with each Dman
    Pesce 2.93
    Faulk2.16
    TVR1.46

    Staal’s on ice GA/60 with each Dman
    Pesce 2.93
    Faulk 2.70
    TVR 2.92

    Staal’s own 5v5 pts/60 with each Dman
    Pesce 2.04
    Faulk 1.35
    TVR 0.94

    Each Dman’s own 5v5 pts/60 with Staal
    Pesce 0.64
    Faulk 0.61
    TVR 0.37

    So we see that “offensive Dman Faulk” is actually a bit of drag on GF% and GF/60 while getting similar amount of points as Pesce.

    The surprising thing is the GA/60 is down a bit under Faulk.I’d need to see WoodWOWY to see if its QoC related.Its not down a ton, but its down.

    Then you do the same thing for every C on CAR to get a feel for Faulk’s overall impact on the centers (proxy for the lines) that he plays with.

    The impact on Staal over the last 3 years is actually negative in regards to “how much the team scores” so what are Faulk’s points actually doing for the team?

    Answer: not much.

    Addendum: This is why I like to look at RelTGF% over large samples as a jumping off point for player evaluation as its basically this, but all the work is already done.

    If still like to drill down and look at Dmen with each C and with their partners to get a better feel for what is going on.

    Beautiful work

  96. Jordan says:

    jtblack: So I am clear.Let’s say all the “what ifs” do occur.

    IN:
    STONE
    DUCHENE

    OUT:
    LUCIC
    NURSE
    YAMAMOTO
    JP
    *2019 1ST
    *2019 3rd?
    2020 2ND
    **2021 1st
    **2021 3rd?
    Is that something close to what you are proposing?

    *Conditional upon Mark Stone re-signing with the Edmonton Oilers
    **Conditional upon Matt Duchene re-signing with the Edmonton Oilers

    If they don’t sign, the get the 3rds.

    I’d also included draft picks back to Edmonton if they re-sign in Ottawa in the off season, but if the 1sts are conditional on being signed by the Oilers, I’m not sure that’s a fair part of the original deal.

    ArmchairGM: Nurse, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi + 3 high picks is WAY too much to give up for rentals. I get that Lucic is a cap dump and that two of those picks are conditional, but it’s still a very bad deal for the Oilers.

    Let’s say neither Stone nor Duchene signs here, now we’ve just set back the team at least 2-3 years for 1 attempt at a playoff run – which in all honesty, isn’t going to be a long one even with those two.

    Yeah, those picks would be conditional on the players re-signing. As I said, if they signed back in Ottawa, there would need to be something conditional coming back to the Oilers too.

  97. knighttown says:

    OilSafety:
    With regards to the recent Hamilton chatter, he problem is that he will be in demand. Someone is going to pay full price for him.
    Dont get me wrong, I want him on the Oilers, but with the potential baggage I wouldnt want to pay full price.

    The reality is Carolina wants top 6 scoring, and that is the last thing we have to offer. We cant send Nuge, we need him more than anyone else in the league either as a winger or as C depth in case of injury. JP will be a player, but isnt yet, I doubt Carolina would settle on him when he’s not contributing yet, and again, we need a big fast scoring winger now and in the future.

    No surprise to anyone here, but the cupboards are bare in Edmonton. Whats left to trade… Yammamoto? Pics?

    Perfect world, we find a third team to bring in who needs futures and has an extra top 6 forward Carolina wants. Not very likely, but I think Hamilton next to Nurse as a second pair is perfect.
    what the hell, maybe they really want Luc, right? It could happen…….

    Im going to go fill up my coffee and baileys.

    Here’s why you don’t need to worry about it. Like Mike Hoffman last year, this is among the last players in the NHL the Oilers would ever pick up. These narratives about guys being quirky and spending more time in the museum than with their BROS? Those come from the old school guys in the NHL and the Oilers have about 12 of them sitting around their senior management table.

  98. Side says:

    knighttown: Here’s why you don’t need to worry about it.Like Mike Hoffman last year, this is among the last players in the NHL the Oilers would ever pick up.These narratives about guys being quirky and spending more time in the museum than with their BROS?Those come from the old school guys in the NHL and the Oilers have about 12 of them sitting around their senior management table.

    Maybe if we comb over some footage we can find instances of Dougie accidentally spraying each of his head coaches with water.

  99. Lowetide says:

    Rube Foster:
    LT – You sure have kicked up a great deal of “Trade Dust” today with your speculations of moves to come from our GM whose future employment it would appear is incumbent upon the Oilers making the Playoffs this year.

    I will postulate that the move we need to make is akin to the trade that saw the Oilers swap Jason Bonsignore, Bryan Marchment and Steve Kelly for Roman Hamrlik and Paul Comrie.

    Alas, the fellow that made that trade does not work here any longer…

    Given recent transactions, I shudder to think about any major move Chiarelli might make.These desperate times will only be compounded by Chiarelli’s desperate measures.

    Those were the days!

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    tileguy:
    We have 2 UFA goalies playing at about the same level. Both will need about $4M+ to be signed, so one has to go. If I was a gambling man, and I am, I move Talbot for pick(s) and use that cap space for a goal scorer. If Miko shits the bed, well there is your cheap backup.
    **and remember what happen last time Chia waited to til the deadline with a valuable UFA**

    I remember what happened when Chia waited till the deadline – he got a fabulous return on both the impending UFAs:

    – Pontus Aberg for impeding UFA Letestu – great return

    – Cooper Marody for impending UFA Maroon (who was playing terribly and had a bad back) – great return

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dicky94:
    Question?If the Oilers traded Lucic and retained half his salary. Can the Oilers still buy out the remaining 3 million in the summer? Or how doesthat work?Possibly stupid question.

    No sir.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    McSorley33:
    When you look at a roster of wingers and a couple of them are still aiming for
    their first even strength goal of the year – should that team be a buyer or a
    seller at the deadline?

    Yes, I get the teams competing for the last Wild card spot in the West are hot garbage.

    What does being the best of hot garbage do?

    Minnesota is holding the last wild card spot they are 4-5-1 in the last 10 with some
    key injuries:

    Last 10 games:

    Anaheim: 2-6-2
    Vancouver 5-5
    Edmonton 3-7

    Remember when McTavish traded David Perron for Pittsburgh’s 1st round pick at the 2015 draft?

    We need more of that…we need more picks and prospects.

    I see your point, this team doesn’t look like a playoff team, however, even with a few material injuries and so many disapointing performances, they are 2 points out through half a season.

    They will get Klefbom back soon and likely Sekera and maybe, just maybe, a couple of the floundering forwards stop floundering or flounder to a lesser degree.

    This could lead to more consistent team with a bit more balance.

    At the same time, I do agree that “buying/renting” is not something that should be looked at now.

    There isn’t too much to “sell” – Chiasson and Gravel and a goalie but I’m not at that point yet, not two points out with half a season.

  103. doctoreye says:

    Jordan,

    If you think we could lose enough Cap to add two such players,how about Panarin and Bobrovsky……or Parayko and Tarasenko? All about the same Cap hit!

  104. Andy Dufresne says:

    Flames send Hamilton to Hurricanes in trade for Lindholm, Hanifin
    CANADIAN PRESS

    On paper, sure, Hamilton was a stud, with a league-leading 17 goals as a defenceman.

    However, the reality is, Hamilton was the player the Flames most wanted to part with, as he was the poster boy for a squad that had far too many players who seemed all too content with the shocking number of losses that mounted down the stretch.

    Despite having most of the tools and stats a player could possibly possess, the 6-foot-6, 210-pound offensive blueliner has now been traded twice in four seasons – a rarity for a player with his numbers and stature.

    A red flag for most teams, making him harder to trade than casual observers would think. Thus, the Flames had to sweeten the pot.

    Read between the lines on Brad Treliving’s rationale behind moving Hamilton and it’s clear problems existed.

    “Dougie is a terrific talent on the ice,” said the Flames GM.

    “I think I have a good and open relationship with players and so there’s things I’m not going to share. We take everything on and off the ice into consideration here. I’m going to keep that stuff internal.”

    And now this week from Elliot Friedman:
    “[A] name I’m curious about is Dougie Hamilton,” Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said during the Headlines segment of Hockey Night in Canada Saturday. “They have four right-shot defencemen, they’ve been asked about Hamilton. If you’re willing to come back to them with a score I think that they would consider doing it.”

    Carolina trading Hamilton after giving up some solid assets to aquire him just 6 months ago?

  105. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m not buying this narrative at all. Toffoli has scored at every level he’s played. He scored 24 goals last year. I don’t think in one year he’s suddenly so slow he can’t score in this league. Joe Pavelski has 25 goals, is on pace for more than 40, and no one can mistake him for being fast. Hell, Chiasson has 17 goals and he’s not exactly a burner either. The team that trades for Toffoli will be getting a bargain.

    Why spend valuable assets for just over a season of Toffoli, who will cost a fortune to re-sign when you can pick up Chiasson’s off the street for pennies?

  106. tileguy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I remember what happened when Chia waited till the deadline – he got a fabulous return on both the impending UFAs:

    – Pontus Aberg for impeding UFA Letestu – great return

    – Cooper Marody for impending UFA Maroon (who was playing terribly and had a bad back) – great return

    Joey Dudek was our return for Maroon, (see, I can play that game to) along with a third rounder. Most, me included, were disappointed.

  107. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Why spend valuable assets for just over a season of Toffoli, who will cost a fortune to re-sign when you can pick up Chiasson’s off the street for pennies?

    Hey, I’m in agreement here. I’ll do you one better. I think we should sign two guys each year to a PTO who score 20+goals.

  108. SwedishPoster says:

    Wilde,

    I saw you mention yesterday that you didn’t like either Broberg nor Söderström as first rounders in the draft. Care to share your reasoning. Imo while Broberg is overrated on a lot of lists he’s certainly a late first rounder for me, pretty similar to Klef as a prospect, Broberg is a better skater while Klefbom had a better defensive stick and read-reacting skills but pretty similar in style at the same age.

    Söderström is the best prospect out of Sweden this draft imo(Unless Simon Holmström shows he’s put his injuries behind him) , albeit in a weak swedish year, high IQ, beauty skater, very good D for his age and untapped offense. Lacking some physical tools, creativity and explosiveness to be a real high pick but definitely a 15-20 overall guy with some hidden upside to be one of those “how the hell did he not go higher” players in 5 years.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    Profit:
    I was gone for 2 weeks with the holiday break and such, so my watching of Oilers and blog reading was down to almost nothing. I have read a bunch of comments on Sekera, half of which basically write him off for the year and half of which have him coming back soonish.

    Has there been an actual, real, update on Sekera’s status? I know we were *expecting* him back around now and that there was apparently some whispers he wasn’t going to be ready (Stauffer?). Is he skating with the team still? I haven’t seen anything concrete.

    It would seem to me a very many things hang on whether he’s ready to go in 2 weeks or out for the year.

    I reached out to Daniel Nugent Bowman on Sekera.

    Sekera (well his wife) just had a baby and the team has been on the road since (so he hasn’t been practicing with the team in the very recent past).

    Current projection for return is February, potentially at the start but that may be a tad optimistic.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: I reached out to Daniel Nugent Bowman on Sekera.

    Sekera (well his wife) just had a baby and the team has been on the road since (so he hasn’t been practicing with the team in the very recent past).

    Current projection for return is February, potentially at the start but that may be a tad optimistic.

    and this from Gregor:

    rarely do injured players go on road trip unless they are close to returning. He will resume with team when they come back. He is still skating hard here. Strengthening his Achilles and legs. Skating with weight packs actually.

  111. Side says:

    godot10: Why spend valuable assets for just over a season of Toffoli, who will cost a fortune to re-sign when you can pick up Chiasson’s off the street for pennies?

    Why would Toffoli cost a fortune if he’s not as good as you suggest?

    How often do you figure you can grab a Chiasson off the street for pennies?

  112. edwards_daddy says:

    Revisiting the Lindholm hit – if the referees are going to ignore that, McDavid has to lay in a crumbled heap in the corner for 90 seconds. First to get the referees attention, and also to get his team mates worked up.

  113. who says:

    Woogie63:
    Isn’t getting Klefbom, Sekera and Yamamoto back and playingequivalent to a trade?

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Russell
    Sekera-Jones
    Benning

    Looks pretty solid to me

    I think you just posted our starting 6 dmen for next fall.
    I am assuming that Chia tries to trade Benning and Manning between now and then.
    I also assume he will try and trade Sekera this summer but, if Sekera doesn’t get back until the end of February, he may be untradeable. Even for a 7th rounder as a salary dump.

  114. Primetime says:

    who: I think you just posted our starting 6 dmen for next fall.
    I am assuming that Chia tries to trade Benning and Manning between now and then.
    I also assume he will try and trade Sekera this summer but, if Sekera doesn’t get back until the end of February,he may be untradeable. Even for a 7th rounder as a salary dump.

    Sekera will be more tradeable than Manning…even if can only skate on one leg from here on out….
    We are stuck with that contract next year regardless (or the buyout that goes with)

  115. Caller Zen says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    No surprise but Talbot gets the start tonight.

    Martin Jones starting for San Jose and he also played last night – interesting.

    Last night the Kings got 23 shots on goal against Jones, only scoring once, so I wouldn’t see this back-to-back against the Oilers as a heavy work load for Jones. Also, Talbot did play 45:55 against LA on Saturday and returned to steal the game with a 39 save shutout the next night.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Anyone interested, Guelph and London play at 5 – both Samorukov and Bouchard are in. May purchase a single game for this one in OHL.com considering the Oil game doesn’t start until an egregious hour.

  117. drglen says:

    no to Maroon. yes to Toffoli if reasonable.

    No trade Nurse, No trade JP. I’m not sure we have anybody of note to trade, Kassian won’t pick up more than he is worth right now, and he’s doing well. People might want Khaira ……. he may be the guy.

  118. Mattaklap says:

    New Improved Darkness,

    Darkness, I don’t know who you are but I would follow you into battle.

  119. Ryan says:

    ArmchairGM: I didn’t set the timeline… and it’s the first time (to my knowledge) that I’ve ever cited these numbers before. Not sure who you are and why the personal attack, but whatever.

    My apologies. I must have you mistaken for another poster.

    I was not intending on casting aspersions.

    If you haven’t gathered it already, Justin Faulk is pretty much my fifth cousin once removed or something.

  120. Professor Q says:

    It’s just the warmup now, but Samorukov is pretty smooth.

    It’s going to be sweet seeing #5 vs. #2 tonight.

  121. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Anyone interested, Guelph and London play at 5 – both Samorukov and Bouchard are in.May purchase a single game for this one in OHL.com considering the Oil game doesn’t start until an egregious hour.

    Maybe you’ll see me!

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    tileguy: Joey Dudek was our return for Maroon, (see, I can play that game to) along with a third rounder. Most, me included, were disappointed.

    Chiarelli stated right away that he had no intention of making the pick with the 3rd rounder and he intended to flip if fairly quickly in to a warm body – he followed through with acquiring Cooper Marody.

    To me, that’s the trade and, given how badly Maroon was struggling at the time of the trade and the fact he was dealing with back issues – that’s a great trade, given Marody’s status in the org.

  123. Bank Shot says:

    So in a very Oilers turn of events, I had forgotten that my Oilers vs Stars tickets on March 28th were still listed on ticket exchange and some crazy person actually purchased them yesterday.

    As a result the winner of the Goal Rieder contest winner will need to settle for NYR Rangers vs Oilers tickets on March 11th. I have delisted these tickets so there can’t be a repeat occurrence.

    Sadly Jethro Tull’s flute solo was premature, and he’s out of the contest.

    That only leaves four hopefuls plus digger, who I am waiting to confirm which of three sharks games he was referring too.

    Come one, come all for the chance to win a free pair of Oilers tickets by picking the game, period, and time that Rieder scores a goal!

  124. Darth Tu says:

    Bank Shot,

    I knew nothing of this glorious competition due to disappearing back to Scotland for the last month or so… Is it too late to enter?

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    knighttown,

    Thanks KT

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looking for another solid performance by Cam Talbot – unfortunately, we all know we’ll need him to make a number of saves early (notwithstanding Hitch stating the “rested” team has the early advantage and the “tired” team the advantage late”.

    Parlaying on the ANA game, maybe this is the game the likes of Rieder, Lucic and Spooner all produce……

  127. Bank Shot says:

    Darth Tu,

    Its open for entry until Rieder scores. Just throw out a guess and you too could be seated in Katz’s pleasure dome come March.

  128. YKOil says:

    Wilde:
    Woodguy v2.0,
    It sounds super-specific and couldn’t possibly make that much of a difference, but the fact that so many 3rd pairing guys have good results against strong opposition (and what Dellow showed in his piece) kind of begs the question of how many situations are like this. (Like starting in the DZ, spending awhile defusing a cycle and then having to get off the ice as soon as the situation’s less dangerous. Or, during a your-DZ-side NZ faceoff the opposite team does the set play that everyone does and you end up repeatedly retrieving until your forwards get it right in the NZ; a lot of shift types kind of suck)

    I think D changes are unfair in general, especially compared to forward changes.

    With forwards, you earn your shift type more often, and the only guys who really get fucked over are FOGO guys, and similar old slow veterans that come on with top-six units to take extra DZ faceoffs like Letestu and Brodziak have in the past few years for Edmonton (poor bastards).

    Whereas with Dman, you virtually never get to change out of a bad situation and you’re almost always changing out of a good one that you somewhat contributed to creating.

    Memory is hazy but didn’t Horcoff play a good part of one year where he would jump on the ice to get the puck out of the DZ and then jump off the ice once the task was accomplished; rarely saw OZ starts as I recall.

    That must have been rewarding.

  129. flea says:

    Bank Shot,

    Did you get my entry Bank shot (it was well after your original post)

    Tonight, 1/2 way through the first!

    Go Tobias Go!

  130. Bank Shot says:

    flea,

    I have Flea
    Mantis
    Ben
    and Bone as the locked in entries

    Hope one of you is right!

    Toby needs a tally.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: Maybe you’ll see me!

    Enjoy the game!

  132. Darth Tu says:

    Bank Shot,

    I’m going with Saturday night against the ‘Yotes, 5:33 into the second period.

    Regardless of whether I’m right or not, I hope he scores soon and then goes on a tear for the rest of the year.

  133. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Bank Shot:
    Darth Tu,

    Its open for entry until Rieder scores. Justthrow out a guess and you too could be seated in Katz’s pleasure dome come March.

    Ah what the hell. I’ll bite.

    I’m guessing he’ll score in the Arizona game on Jan. 12, half way through the 2nd period.

    Edit: crap…apparently someone wass a little faster than me at guessing, so let me change it to the Buffalo game on Jan. 14 instead. Half way though the 2nd period.

  134. Darth Tu says:

    Crazy Pedestrian,

    I’d have been fine with you sticking with the original guess – but would have expected the second ticket 😉

  135. RonnieB says:

    Bank Shot,

    I’ll take January 8, 2019, 19:23 of 1st period ( possibly shorthanded ).

  136. pts2pndr says:

    drglen:
    no to Maroon.yes to Toffoli if reasonable.

    No trade Nurse, No trade JP. I’m not sure we have anybody of note to trade, Kassian won’t pick up more than he is worth right now, and he’s doing well.People might want Khaira ……. he may be the guy.

    Khaira is the defacto fifth center which is a very nice player to have in the event of injury! He also is a physical player and good on the penalty kill and great contract. In my opinion any trade involving Khaira and taking on more cap should be a non starter!

  137. Wilde says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Wilde,

    I saw you mention yesterday that you didn’t like either Broberg nor Söderström as first rounders in the draft. Care to share your reasoning. Imo while Broberg is overrated on a lot of lists he’s certainly a late first rounder for me, pretty similar to Klef as a prospect, Broberg is a better skater while Klefbom had a better defensive stick and read-reacting skills but pretty similar in style at the same age.

    Söderström is the best prospect out of Sweden this draft imo(Unless Simon Holmström shows he’s put his injuries behind him) , albeit in a weak swedish year, high IQ, beauty skater, very good D for his age and untapped offense. Lacking some physical tools, creativity and explosiveness to be a real high pick but definitely a 15-20 overall guy with some hidden upside to be one of those “how the hell did he not go higher” players in 5 years.

    First thing I should get out of the way: I like forwards at the top of the draft. A D-man breaking into the top-20 on any of my boards has substantial offensive impact on the scoresheet. I don’t really care about point-producing in the NHL, but to do the things that are important to me as an NHL defenceman, you usually have to have attributes that allow you to be a proficient scorer at 16/17/18.

    That’s the theory, at least. I’d also rather have the 20th best forward in in the NHL than the 20th best defenceman, but that’s another debate.

    We’re probably not far apart on Broberg if you have him as a late first. My concern for him is his sense. Guys who are elite skaters but aren’t high-end producers are projects for me because they’ve got a huge advantage on the competition already. I’m scared he’s Nurse. Do you know anything about his swap to AIK from Öreboro last year? That’s the sticking point for me, because not producing that much in the Allsvenskan as a late-birthday defenceman isn’t exactly a red flag, but it’s following that draft minus-one year where he had a low total P/GP in the U20’s.

    Full disclosure, Klefbom would have burned me in his draft year. I wouldn’t have taken him at #19 and he’s easily, easily in the top-20 players of that draft.

    Your description of Söderström is pretty much dead-on, except I’d contend that it’s more that Holmström has to appear as though he /hasn’t/ escaped his injuries, although I’m aware that’s giving him the benefit of the doubt. I’d also say that I like Nils Höglander but that’s a matter of unempirical personal taste.

    The thing with Söderstöm is just what you’ve said, though. I’d rather take the opposite build high in the draft and hope they figure things out to supplement their offense and creativity.

    It’s not a perfect method and guys like Klefbom could/would/should burn me.

  138. Oz says:

    Bank Shot,

    Tonight’s game around 4:40 of the first period

  139. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Flames send Hamilton to Hurricanes in trade for Lindholm, Hanifin
    CANADIAN PRESS

    On paper, sure, Hamilton was a stud, with a league-leading 17 goals as a defenceman.

    However, the reality is, Hamilton was the player the Flames most wanted to part with, as he was the poster boy for a squad that had far too many players who seemed all too content with the shocking number of losses that mounted down the stretch.

    Despite having most of the tools and stats a player could possibly possess, the 6-foot-6, 210-pound offensive blueliner has now been traded twice in four seasons – a rarity for a player with his numbers and stature.

    A red flag for most teams, making him harder to trade than casual observers would think. Thus, the Flames had to sweeten the pot.

    Read between the lines on Brad Treliving’s rationale behind moving Hamilton and it’s clear problems existed.

    “Dougie is a terrific talent on the ice,” said the Flames GM.

    “I think I have a good and open relationship with players and so there’s things I’m not going to share. We take everything on and off the ice into consideration here. I’m going to keep that stuff internal.”

    And now this week from Elliot Friedman:
    “[A] name I’m curious about is Dougie Hamilton,” Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said during the Headlines segment of Hockey Night in Canada Saturday. “They have four right-shot defencemen, they’ve been asked about Hamilton. If you’re willing to come back to them with a score I think that they would consider doing it.”

    Carolina trading Hamilton after giving up some solid assets to aquire him just 6 months ago?

    Treliving said there are off ice issues. Wouldn’t say what. His SF% this season is 58.6 and his GF% is 42.86. Woodguy posted he’s not playing top comp I believe, not good. I think teams have lower pain thresholds when high maintenance players aren’t making a big overall difference on the ice despite getting points .

  140. YKOil says:

    Toffoli is a harder trade than we may think as the salaries have to work out.

    The painless version is Spooner, Benning and a 3rd — this would be a good trade — but, methinks LA can get a 2nd for Toffoli from someone else pending how the salaries match up.

    So do we then give up a 2nd and a prospect like Bear in that package (for some meaningless prospect to balance up the number of players)? — the 2nd pulls the 3rd out of the deal btw.

    Ahhh… BUT… what if the trade allows us to dump Spooner AND Manning with us retaining some salary on Manning to balance up? I probably pull that trigger to be honest.

    Spooner, Manning ($500k retained), Bear and a 2nd
    FOR
    Toffoli, prospect whoever and a 7th

    is a trade that makes a lot of sense for the Oilers, Spooner/Manning being dead-weight squared for this team, and some sense for LA.

    ————-

    As with any trade deadline there are opportunities out there. PC got Marody because HE KNEW Philly wanted a 3rd for him when push came to shove and he knew he could get a 3rd for one of Letestu or Maroon – i.e. have your bank ready for when the opportunity to purchase arrives. Pretty basic GM stuff. PC is fine when it comes to this stuff.

    What I worry about now is what I have always worried about with PC – what he wants he wants and no price is too high for him to get what he wants.

    This could get VERY bad for us.

  141. oilersfan says:

    The Oilers are 10-2 with Hitch coaching and Russell in the lineup

    Going to be 11-2 in 6 hours

    Death once had a near Stan Weir experience

  142. Glovjuice says:

    DBO:
    Maroon can play with Connor, has size Chia and Hitch like and will come cheap. Seems like an easy top 6 fit for us.

    D is set, based on crappy moves he has already made. Goalie won’t change.

    Funny how Strome would be a great pickup for us right now. A RH 3rd line centre with some offense who can PK. Man that may be Chia’s worst move

    Hey, that thought is pantented by Glovjuice industries.

  143. hunter1909 says:

    Profit: I was gone for 2 weeks with the holiday break and such, so my watching of Oilers and blog reading was down to almost nothing.

    Once I did that, but when I returned to the phone/newsfeed Taylor Hall had been traded to New Jersey.

  144. hunter1909 says:

    Food For Thought:

    If Lowe had remained GM and got McDavid there’s no way in hell the team would be anywhere near as fucked as it appears in January 2019.

    How about those Flames? I see a hard working, honest type of hockey team and if they win the cup it’s going to piss Katz off a lot more than me.

  145. Wilde says:

    DBO: Funny how Strome would be a great pickup for us right now. A RH 3rd line centre with some offense who can PK. Man that may be Chia’s worst move

    what

    w h a t

  146. Glovjuice says:

    knighttown: Here’s why you don’t need to worry about it.Like Mike Hoffman last year, this is among the last players in the NHL the Oilers would ever pick up.These narratives about guys being quirky and spending more time in the museum than with their BROS?Those come from the old school guys in the NHL and the Oilers have about 12 of them sitting around their senior management table.

    Or in The Baths…

  147. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who: I think you just posted our starting 6 dmen for next fall.
    I am assuming that Chia tries to trade Benning and Manning between now and then.
    I also assume he will try and trade Sekera this summer but, if Sekera doesn’t get back until the end of February,he may be untradeable. Even for a 7th rounder as a salary dump.

    If Chiarelli is still GM that group is too short and light for him. Only Klefbom and Nurse are over 210. It would be a smaller D group stick even as the league goes more skill .

    Ability before size always, if you can add size great. Also Bouchard will be 3 RD no matter what GM comes in, and I hope it’s not PC. The Manning thing makes me ill. I don’t see anyone around now that will be better next camp.

  148. Scungilli Slushy says:

    hunter1909:
    Food For Thought:

    If Lowe had remained GM and got McDavid there’s no way in hell the team would be anywhere near as fucked as it appears in January 2019.

    How about those Flames? I see a hard working, honest type of hockey team and if they win the cup it’s going to piss Katz off a lot more than me.

    You see honest in the Flames? Hard working maybe, but proudly remaining one of the cheap shot teams. Anaheim is their role model.

  149. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: If Chiarelli is still GM that group is too short and light for him. Only Klefbom and Nurse are over 210.It would be a smallerD group stick even as the league goes more skill .

    Ability before size always, if you can add size great. Also Bouchard will be 3 RD no matter what GM comes in, and I hope it’s not PC. The Manning thing makes me ill. I don’t see anyone around now that will be better next camp.

    Phone hates me

  150. Professor Q says:

    Bouchard has not been good outside of a first minute rush for an almost goal (High Danger Chance).

    Too calm. Not a lot of urgency.

    Which helps in some instances (gracefully waiting out an opponent or puck etc., or not being rash during a 2-on-1) but in others can have an opponent blow by or missing a puck heading out of the O-Zone.

    Very crisp passes, however.

    Samorukov has been better defensively than Bouchard, and perhaps is a better playmaker in terms of QBing and directing teammates and plays. Sometimes when Bouchard makes a great play, his teammates are unaware or surprised (they thought he got beat in the O-Zone, so they all headed off, but he did in fact keep it in and could have made for a good scoring chance, instead Guelph went on to score).

  151. Scungilli Slushy says:

    YKOil:
    Toffoli is a harder trade than we may think as the salaries have to work out.

    The painless version is Spooner, Benning and a 3rd — this would be a good trade — but, methinks LA can get a 2nd for Toffoli from someone else pending how the salaries match up.

    So do we then give up a 2nd and a prospect like Bear in that package (for some meaningless prospect to balance up the number of players)? — the 2nd pulls the 3rd out of the deal btw.

    Ahhh… BUT… what if the trade allows us to dump Spooner AND Manning with us retaining some salary on Manning to balance up?I probably pull that trigger to be honest.

    Spooner, Manning ($500k retained), Bear and a 2nd
    FOR
    Toffoli, prospect whoever and a 7th

    is a trade that makes a lot of sense for the Oilers, Spooner/Manning being dead-weight squared for this team, and some sense for LA.

    ————-

    As with any trade deadline there are opportunities out there.PC got Marody because HE KNEW Philly wanted a 3rd for him when push came to shove and he knew he could get a 3rd for one of Letestu or Maroon – i.e. have your bank ready for when the opportunity to purchase arrives.Pretty basic GM stuff.PC is fine when it comes to this stuff.

    What I worry about now is what I have always worried about with PC – what he wants he wants and no price is too high for him to get what he wants.

    This could get VERY bad for us.

    A good point PC seems to get fixated on players and goes too far. Or makes deals that are pointless.

    They need someone who is getting high quality info and adds players as they become available, always, to improve the roster. Not being behind the eight ball makes dealing easier.

  152. tileguy says:

    Bank Shot:
    flea,

    I have Flea
    Mantis
    Ben
    and Bone as the locked in entries

    Hope one of you is right!

    Toby needs a tally.

    19:50 of the third tonight?

  153. Professor Q says:

    Also, Adam Boqvist is damned fast and skilled. Wow.

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q:
    Bouchard has not been good outside of a first minute rush for an almost goal (High Danger Chance).

    Too calm. Not a lot of urgency.

    Which helps in some instances (gracefully waiting out an opponent or puck etc., or not being rash during a 2-on-1) but in others can have an opponent blow by or missing a puck heading out of the O-Zone.

    Very crisp passes, however.

    Samorukov has been better defensively than Bouchard, and perhaps is a better playmaker in terms of QBing and directing teammates and plays. Sometimes when Bouchard makes a great play, his teammates are unaware or surprised (they thought he got beat in the O-Zone, so they all headed off, but he did in fact keep it in and could have made for a good scoring chance, instead Guelph went on to score).

    Thanks for the update – I haven’t been able to damn clients and their needs – I notice that Bouchard has no shots on net and Samorukov has a PP assist and with 3 shots on net as the 2nd period winds down.

  155. hunter1909 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: You see honest in the Flames? Hard working maybe, but proudly remaining one of the cheap shot teams. Anaheim is their role model.

    Flames have been terrible for years. Easy to wax poetic over a few casual glimpses. If Oilers make the playoffs they’re likely as not to meet the big bad Calmontonians.

  156. hunter1909 says:

    Professor Q:
    Also, Adam Boqvist is damned fast and skilled. Wow.

    You might be right but I wouldn’t trade him for Bouchard who appears to be an 80% cert to make an outstanding top pairing defenceman.

    Oilers needed a pair of Bouchards 4-5 seasons ago.

  157. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    D MAN POINTS.TALE OF 2 CITIES.

    BURNS – 47
    KARLSSON – 38

    That’s 85 Points from those 2.

    NURSE – 19
    KLEFBOM – 15
    LARSSON – 12
    RUSSELL – 8
    BENNING – 8
    JONES – 4
    WIDEMAN – 2
    GRAVEL – 2
    BOUCHARD – 1
    PETROVIC – 1
    GARRISON – 1

    That’s 73 points.

    Now is someone gonna try and convince me that Burns and Karlsson are D men Vampires?

    All of that offense has netted the Sharks +6 in goal differential according to NST goal shares for each player.

    One would think if a D scores that much it would be far higher. It’s not the amount of points it’s the amount of outscoring that wins games.

    How I see it is in critical breakdowns that lead to goals against, the thing that kills the Oilers for years.

    Steady, quality play accumulates momentum over a season for the players individually and the team.

    There are also the cap implications in re-signing Karlsson for next season. Can you afford 2 Uber offense (expensive) D bleeding GA and ice a cup challenging team? This season maybe.

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bruins up 4-0 on the Wild – great stuff.

    DAL up 1-0 on STL – not great stuff.

  159. JimmyV1965 says:

    hunter1909:
    Food For Thought:

    If Lowe had remained GM and got McDavid there’s no way in hell the team would be anywhere near as fucked as it appears in January 2019.

    How about those Flames? I see a hard working, honest type of hockey team and if they win the cup it’s going to piss Katz off a lot more than me.

    The Flames certainly have a good team, but I’m not convinced they’re as good as their record. If we can somehow stumble into the playoffs, it’s the Flames I want to see in the first round. I think we can beat them. The Jets and Preds not so much.

  160. Professor Q says:

    hunter1909: You might be right but I wouldn’t trade him for Bouchard who appears to be an 80% cert to make an outstanding top pairing defenceman.

    Oilers needed a pair of Bouchards 4-5 seasons ago.

    I mean, I agree on all points.

  161. Scungilli Slushy says:

    hunter1909: Flames have been terrible for years. Easy to wax poetic over a few casual glimpses. If Oilers make the playoffs they’re likely as not to meet the big bad Calmontonians.

    I was referring to honest. Yes the Flames have sucked. They are doing well this season. All I can say for them is that their cheap shot artists can play. I still have no respect for winning or trying to that way.

    Tkachuk obvious
    Gio 3rd knee on knee suspension?
    Etc etc

    Goes back to when the Flames built a team to beat the Oilers, funny how strong a team identity sticks over years despite the turnover of people.

  162. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: Wild

    Yes, it seems an odd statement as Strome has 2 points in 18 games for the Oilers (in the course of essentially sawing off the opposition).

    He has produced a few more points for the Rangers, however, he is doing that as a winger and has also been getting caved in possession (under 40% and goals share, 40%) in order to “produce”.

  163. healthyscratch says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    New Improved Darkness,

    This also happened in the Lowe/MacT era. “Sure, you need rounded, versatile players, but also my kingdom for a pure shooter.”

    Fun fact.

    EDM’s best “GF% Star Off” in the last 12 years was the last year of MacT as head coach.

    08/09
    Hesmky on GF% 52.6%
    Hemsky off GF% 49.2%

    It was soon after that MacT and Lowe decided (and mentioned in the incredible TV series “Oil Change”) that they needed high end talent to win a Cup so after their poor start in 09/10 they “tanked” (with a maxed out payroll) and got Hall and started “Rebuild v 2.3”

    10 years later Pete would sell a kidney for 49.2% McDavid off.

    He sold much more than a kidney in pursuit of it, but……” (which won’t have anything at all to do with skill or value, because Chia is 100% bereft in those capacities). “ …and all.

    More likely he’d trade it for something of less value that he doesn’t need, like an appendix.

  164. hunter1909 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I was referring to honest. Yes the Flames have sucked. They are doing well this season. All I can say for them is that their cheap shot artists can play. I still have no respect for winning or trying to that way.

    Tkachuk obvious
    Gio 3rd knee on knee suspension?
    Etc etc

    Goes back to when the Flames built a team to beat the Oilers, funny how strong a team identity sticks over years despite the turnover of people.

    To be fair the Calgarians to the south had been forced to endure watching the Great One, Paul Coffey who at that time was compared to Bobby Orr and Gretzky he was that good, the dependable as clockwork Messier line featuring the Tazmanian Buzz Saw Glen Anderson…

    Amazingly I’ve almost reached the point where Oilers appear like a two person team. McDavid and Draisaitl who can’t seem to score enough points between them to make a difference every night.

    I’m not following Calgary and they probably get bounced from the playoffs they always do.

  165. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: If Chiarelli is still GM that group is too short and light for him. Only Klefbom and Nurse are over 210.It would be a smallerD group stick even as the league goes more skill .

    Ability before size always, if you can add size great. Also Bouchard will be 3 RD no matter what GM comes in, and I hope it’s not PC. The Manning thing makes me ill. I don’t see anyone around now that will be better next camp.

    Each of Bear, Lagesson, Berglund, Person and Bouchard (in addition to Jones) are on the cusp of NHL readiness and should battle for a roster spot on merit next year. No, of course, all won’t prove to be ready but there is a very decent chance at least one or two of those players are NHL ready for 3rd pairing minutes and could very conceivably be better than Manning.

    Shit, from the two games I saw Manning play and my viewing of the Condors, I’d feel more comfortable with Lagesson on the 3rd pairing over Manning.

  166. hunter1909 says:

    healthyscratch: This also happened in the Lowe/MacT era.

    Succinct as ever.

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: You might be right but I wouldn’t trade him for Bouchard who appears to be an 80% cert to make an outstanding top pairing defenceman.

    Oilers needed a pair of Bouchards 4-5 seasons ago.

    I think that percentage may be aggressive as far a “top pairing d-man”.

    I would say he is an 90% lock to be an every day d-man in the NHL and a 75% lock to develop in to a top 4 guy but projecting him as a top pairing guy, let alone an outstanding top pairing guy, is a bit aggressive to me.

    Absolutely, he may develop in to that player but I wouldn’t put the odds anywhere over 50%.

  168. BG19 says:

    Bank Shot,

    Philly, February 2, 1st period 17:12.

  169. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think that percentage may be aggressive as far a “top pairing d-man”.

    I would say he is an 90% lock to be an every day d-man in the NHL and a 75% lock to develop in to a top 4 guy but projecting him as a top pairing guy, let alone an outstanding top pairing guy, is a bit aggressive to me.

    Absolutely, he may develop in to that player but I wouldn’t put the odds anywhere over 50%.

    Your odds are the ones I take to Vegas. My odds are “fan” odds.

  170. Dicky94 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Just need the 8th seed anyways. It would be priceless to send Calgary packing in the first round. Damn do I want to see that! COME ON OILERS!!!!

  171. SwedishPoster says:

    Wilde,

    Fair enough. I see your point.
    Guys playing like Söderström has been the last few weeks in the SHL at 17 rarely end up less than top 4 D in the NHL. Hard to not grab him in the first round. I can understand not having Broberg in the first as there are concerns that he’s all skating and size and not much else, even though I feel that’s a bit of an oversimplification, but I have a hard time seeing there are 31 better prospects than Söderström in this draft.

  172. digger50 says:

    Bank Shot:
    So in a very Oilers turn of events, I had forgotten that my Oilers vs Stars tickets on March 28th were still listed on ticket exchange and some crazy person actually purchased them yesterday.

    As a result the winner of the Goal Rieder contest winner will need to settle for NYR Rangers vs Oilers tickets on March 11th. I have delisted these tickets so there can’t be a repeat occurrence.

    Sadly Jethro Tull’s flute solo was premature, and he’s out of the contest.

    That only leaves four hopefuls plus digger, who I am waiting to confirm which of three sharks games he was referring too.

    Come one, come all for the chance to win a free pair of Oilers tickets by picking the game, period, and time that Rieder scores a goal!

    Thank you Banks

    I’ll go with tonight. I’m sure a Rieder will not let me down.

  173. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Professor Q,

    Premium updates, thanks. Keep them rolling in!

  174. Jordan says:

    Bank Shot:
    flea,

    I have Flea
    Mantis
    Ben
    and Bone as the locked in entries

    Hope one of you is right!

    Toby needs a tally.

    Hey Bank shot – I’m guessing he doesn’t score at all between now and then.

    I don’t think anyone’s guessed that yet.

    Hope that’s okay – if not, let me know and I’ll guess something else.

    Cheers.

  175. Bank Shot says:

    digger50,

    Sweet. Can you refresh the period and time for me? I didn’t write it down. : )

  176. ArmchairGM says:

    Ryan: My apologies. I must have you mistaken for another poster.

    I was not intending on casting aspersions.

    If you haven’t gathered it already, Justin Faulk is pretty much my fifth cousin once removed or something.

    Ha ha – lucky you!

  177. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wild lose in regulation so, with the win tonight, the Oilers will be tied for a playoff spot (giving up a game in hand mind you).

  178. Sunnyboy says:

    First time poster, turned off cloaking device to orbit here.
    Big fist bump to LT for his help getting logged in, no tech
    dude here, first star for him. Go Oilers!!

  179. linkfromhyrule says:

    Bank Shot, I’ll guess thursday against the panthers 15 min into second

  180. Professor Q says:

    Even though it was a disappointing loss for the Knights, I still had fun with the brother.

    Now, the trip home was not as fun. Getting off my bus for my transfer, and I got splashed by an oncoming car.

    My nice and clean Oilers jersey lasted the night without getting a drop of beer or mustard on it. Alas, it was not to get away that easily.

  181. Glovjuice says:

    Sunnyboy:
    First time poster, turned off cloaking device to orbit here.
    Big fist bump to LT for his help getting logged in, no tech
    dude here, first star for him. Go Oilers!!

    The Spooner trade is awful, the Koskinen signing was risky, Malone is not an NHL player (neither is Cags), Chia is terrible GM, Pink Floyd and Classical Indian music rule, Original Pozzar is rich/gets up early to look sexy/like to spend thousands to get sick on boats, woodguy 2.0 posts numbers, LT is a literary genius, Scotch and other booze is yummy, Godot fire TMac, and Glovjuice sucks. Ok, you can go back to Klingon cloak now. Oh, you said first time poster, not first time reader. Well, not deleting this now.

  182. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am far from rich.

    The iteinerary for the sailing trip was actually not very expensive (as I said, it was far from luxurious) – the plane tickets, on the other hand, were far from cheap.

    Recall, early 40s and no kids = more expendable income for travelling – sacrifices made in order to achieve ability to travel.

  183. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I am far from rich.

    The iteinerary for the sailing trip was actually not very expensive (as I said, it was far from luxurious) – the plane tickets, on the other hand, were far from cheap.

    Recall, early 40s and no kids = more expendable income for travelling – sacrifices made in order to achieve ability to travel.

    Aren’t you BigLaw or something though? Or the Canadian equivalent.

  184. OriginalPouzar says:

    Martin Jones has the flu so Aaron Dell gets the start.

    Coach DeBoer also has the flu and is sitting this one out.

    No Vlasic either.

  185. Lowetide says:

    Sunnyboy:
    First time poster, turned off cloaking device to orbit here.
    Big fist bump to LT for his help getting logged in, no tech
    dude here, first star for him. Go Oilers!!

    If you were relying on my tech savvy, it’s a MIRACLE you’re here. Welcome! 🙂

  186. Ryan says:

    Glovjuice: The Spooner trade is awful, the Koskinen signing was risky, Malone is not an NHL player (neither is Cags), Chia is terrible GM, Pink Floyd and Classical Indian music rule, Original Pozzar is rich/gets up early to look sexy/like to spend thousands to get sick on boats, woodguy 2.0 posts numbers, LT is a literary genius, Scotch and other booze is yummy, Godot fire TMac, and Glovjuice sucks. Ok, you can go back to Klingon cloak now. Oh, you said first time poster, not first time reader. Well, not deleting this now.

    What about Ryan? What is my identity here?

  187. drglen says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Wild lose in regulation so, with the win tonight, the Oilers will be tied for a playoff spot (giving up a game in hand mind you).

    this is good. Wow late start… … so naturally, at some point I’ll go to bed, but like a fool, check the score every 10 mintues…

    Spooner back in? Hope he does OK. My worry is clean lanes for shark shots from the point, .. this is a game in which our most perceptive and agile defenders have be be first. Russel is going to help a lot tonight

    Also, somebody please realize that Logan Coutre is good and he’s tough. You have to be hard on that guy, hard checking, not a tap. I’m saying 5-3 oiler empty net. Khaira and JP score.

  188. Zelepukin says:

    4-3 Oil if we score first.

    If Sharks score in the first 2mins, 5-1 Sharks.

  189. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB3: Aren’t you BigLaw or something though? Or the Canadian equivalent.

    Yes but that doesn’t mean I am rich.

  190. Rube Foster says:

    Glovjuice: The Spooner trade is awful, the Koskinen signing was risky, Malone is not an NHL player (neither is Cags), Chia is terrible GM, Pink Floyd and Classical Indian music rule, Original Pozzar is rich/gets up early to look sexy/like to spend thousands to get sick on boats, woodguy 2.0 posts numbers, LT is a literary genius, Scotch and other booze is yummy, Godot fire TMac, and Glovjuice sucks. Ok, you can go back to Klingon cloak now. Oh, you said first time poster, not first time reader. Well, not deleting this now.

    BINGO!

    Though you could have added for clarity sake that Bruce loves astronmy and the WHA in equal measures, Bankshot has Oiler tickets to give away curtesy of Tobie Reider’s unicorn, Hunter is a baaad man, Jethro T sounds like Dick VanDyke in Mary Poppins, SwedishPoster shops at IKEA & H&M, New Improved Darkness is James Joyce’s nephew four times removed, Wilde is wild, VOR is missed as is GMoney, Steve Smith is sage, AND GLovejuice does NOT suck, she just has an unrequited crush on Ryan Strome and Spooner is her least favorite Ryan in the NHL.

    Did I get that right?

  191. OriginalPouzar says:

    8:30 is an egregious time to start a hockey game but it is actually helping me tonight.

    My biggest struggle is rest and recovery – 4 hours of sleep/night (wake up time is currently 2:10am, 7d/week) is not enough but I also struggle big time to take days off the gym. I hate days off the gym. I take a rest day from the gym like once every month or even longer.

    Given I would get 2.5 hours sleep before gym time because of the late start, I am forcing myself to not go to the gym tomorrow and taking a scheduled rest day – even though I often have fabulous workouts when they play on the west coast and I get less than 4 hours, I think scheduled rest day makes sense – a goal of mine for 2019 is more rest days – if I don’t do it tomorrow, when would i?

    Sleeping in until 4:45 tomorrow morning and doing light cardio for 30-45 minutes on the home treadmill.

    Rest day does not mean “do nothing day”.

    Go Oilers!

  192. Glovjuice says:

    Ryan: What about Ryan? What is my identity here?

    Right…what’s your whine again?

  193. Krid says:

    Bank Shot,

    Tonight!

  194. Rube Foster says:

    Glovjuice: Right…what’s your whine again?

    Ryan is the Secretary Teasurer of the Justin Faulk fan club.

  195. drglen says:

    dang.

  196. Pescador says:

    You know it’s going to be a long night when….

  197. Pescador says:

    Off 2 Oilers yuck

  198. OriginalPouzar says:

    Double deflection – ugh.

  199. flyfish1168 says:

    hockey gods hates us

  200. hunter1909 says:

    Back breaking goal?

Newer Comments »

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca